From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 00:54:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 19:54:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501010056.j010uX30002698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010054 SWODY1 SPC AC 010053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN CA AND WRN ORE... THE WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ORE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE INLAND ACROSS ORE. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE NEAR THE US BORDER. ...SABINE RIVER VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSES THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORM COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 06:08:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 01:08:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501010610.j016An1Q029476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010608 SWODY1 SPC AC 010605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SLN 20 SW LNK 10 SSW SPW 30 N RST 20 NNW GRB MBL 25 NE GRR 15 NE AZO 20 N LAF 25 NE SLO 20 SE TBN 15 ENE JLN 35 SSW CNU 50 E ICT 25 E SLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 ESE AST EUG 40 E CEC 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BPT 25 ENE LFK 30 WNW TXK 25 SE FSM 40 SSE HRO 60 WSW ARG 55 W MEM 25 S JAN 10 SSE BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AS A RESULT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX AND LA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS LA AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX COASTAL BEND...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS LA AND FAR EAST TX. THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...EVENTUALLY REACHING AR AND WRN MS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS...ERN NEB AND MO...A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW SFC DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 50S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM FAR SE NEB EWD ACROSS NRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR MKC SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINE EXPANDING ENEWD EVENTUALLY REACHING NE MO AND NRN IL LATE TONIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SEWD TODAY APPROACHING THE ORE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL RESULT IN A THUNDER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ORE COAST EXTENDING OFFSHORE UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 12:54:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 07:54:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501011256.j01CuWkk017941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011254 SWODY1 SPC AC 011252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BPT 25 ENE LFK 30 WNW TXK 25 SE FSM 40 SSE HRO 60 WSW ARG 55 W MEM 25 S JAN 10 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RSL 40 WNW BIE 30 S SPW 15 NNW RST 15 N VOK 25 WSW OSH 30 NW MKE 30 NW CGX 10 N MMO 15 NE PIA 30 ESE SZL 20 WNW TUL 20 NNW END 35 NNW P28 20 ENE RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX 30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN KS/NWRN MO/S CENTRAL IA... ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WEST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN ERN CO AND SHIFTS INTO NWRN MO THIS EVENING. A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET... CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND AID IN TRANSPORTING A MORE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND/HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WV/IR IMAGERY LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN TX/WRN LA. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EL TEMPERATURES WERE FROM 0C TO -10C AND THIS HAS INHIBITED THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 3-6 DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE TOPS TO GROW SUFFICIENTLY TALL TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. ...NW PACIFIC COAST... AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE ONTO THE ORE COAST THIS EVENING. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -30C TO -32C WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN ACROSS THE COLDER INLAND AREAS. ..IMY.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 16:28:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 11:28:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501011630.j01GUTmj015805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011627 SWODY1 SPC AC 011626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX 30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RSL 40 WNW BIE 30 S SPW 15 NNW RST 15 N VOK 25 WSW OSH 30 NW MKE 30 NW CGX 10 N MMO 15 NE PIA 30 ESE SZL 20 WNW TUL 20 NNW END 35 NNW P28 20 ENE RSL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... 12Z ETA/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RUNS REGARDING STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND THUS FEW IF ANY CHANGES ARE NEEDED FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE FORECAST. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS CENTRAL MO...EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER NERN CO/NWRN KS. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE LOW CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS SWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...PRESSURE FALLS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB BY THE EARLY EVENING. WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60F EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN KS. IN ADDITION...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AS SSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SUCH SHEAR OVERSPREADING A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETAKF AND RUC TO REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL 5% THREAT AREAS FOR WIND AND HAIL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STORMS FORM NEAR THE COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 20Z-02Z. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED TO PRODUCE ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF IA/NRN MO. ..EVANS.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 19:50:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 14:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501011952.j01Jqwsh016564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011943 SWODY1 SPC AC 011941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX 30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW BJI 10 ESE CMX 15 ENE PLN 25 ENE HTL 15 NW LAN 40 ENE LAF 45 SSE MTO 45 SW STL 10 WNW SGF 40 SSE CNU 30 NNW PNC 20 NNE HUT 30 W LNK 25 W FSD 30 N ATY 55 SSW BJI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN INTO TWO FEATURES. NRN-MOST IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SD AND NRN NEB WITH A BRANCH OF THE SLY LLJ IMPINGING UPON THE E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN NEB. RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING IN THE MID-MO VLY NWD INTO ERN SD. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PARCELS NEAR H7 HAD 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND GIVEN INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PARCELS ARE BEING LOFTED TO ALTITUDES WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN MINUS 20C. THE RESULT HAS BEEN FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF KFSD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW 0C. AS THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EWD...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN AND TOWARD MI AREA LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE OVER ERN CO AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. THOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND BRANCH OF THE LLJ WAS BLOWING INTO THE SLOWLY RETREATING POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO AND WRN IL...GIVING RISE TO ELEVATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOW...CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS FRONT ACROSS ERN KS AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER FROM H8-H7 AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY MITIGATE SURFACE BASED TSTMS AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. OTHERWISE...SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS FARTHER NE ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA AND INTO WCNTRL IL. ...PAC NW COAST... LOW-MIDLEVEL ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE/ISOLD LIGHTNING THREAT ALONG THE ORE/WA/NRN CA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN ORE/NRN CA COASTS TOWARD MORNING AS UPSTREAM VORT MAX DIGS SEWD TOWARD THESE AREAS. ..RACY.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 00:34:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 19:34:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501020036.j020aClc008524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020033 SWODY1 SPC AC 020032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW EMP 20 ESE SLN 30 NE CNK 25 WSW OTG 35 NNW RWF 30 NW STC 35 ESE DLH 15 ENE IWD 10 SSW MQT 45 NNW TVC 40 SW HTL 40 NNE FWA 25 WNW MIE 25 SW MTO 40 ESE SZL 20 WSW EMP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MIDWEST... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SERN NEB WITH A WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NRN MO AND SCNTRL IA. CONVECTION IS ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS IA AND MN...DEVELOPING PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER IA AND MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALSO HELPED INITIATE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER NRN MO WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND WRN IL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN IL WHERE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING SWWD INTO ERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NE KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. THE 00Z OMAHA AND TOPEKA SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND FALLING SFC TEMPS SHOULD FARTHER REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 05:48:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 00:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501020550.j025oZEo014288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020548 SWODY1 SPC AC 020546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW JHW 20 N YNG 50 SE DAY 30 SSE OWB 45 SSW PBF 40 S SHV 40 NW BPT 30 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4BK 25 E CEC 30 NE ACV 35 SSE EKA 15 S UKI 15 E SFO 35 SE MRY 20 SSE PRB 25 ESE SMX 25 NNE OXR 15 SSW RAL 20 WSW CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 20 SSE COT 50 NNE DRT 55 S BGS 50 NNE BGS 30 NNE CDS 40 ESE GAG 25 SE ICT 35 ENE SZL 20 E SPI 30 NNW FWA 25 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 N TUS 45 S SOW 70 SSW GNT 15 NNW ONM 40 SSW 4CR 15 E ALM 35 SSE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/OH VALLEY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM IND/IL EXTENDING SWWD INTO MO AND NW OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM WCNTRL TX EXTENDING NWD INTO WCNTRL OK. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN ERN OK AND ERN TX. CONCERNING INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NWD INTO SW OK. AT UPPER-LEVELS...STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET PROVIDING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS REGION. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z MONDAY IN NW TX AND SW 0K SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. IF THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BEST SFC INSTABILITY. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS TRACK NEWD ACROSS WCNTRL OK ENCOUNTERING A COLD FRONT. ANY HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE NWD INTO THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ...CA COAST... AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE VERY COLD...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWS CENTER DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT. A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO JUST THE COASTAL AREAS. ...SE AZ/SW NM... SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS SFC TEMPS WARM. A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ AND SW NM. HOWEVER...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPS COOL OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 12:29:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 07:29:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501021231.j02CVeoB029408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021229 SWODY1 SPC AC 021227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 65 ESE SOW 40 NNW 4CR 45 NE ALM 40 ESE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 10 SW AUS JCT P07 INK 10 NE HOB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NW CGX 20 W GRR FNT 10 WNW ERI PIT LUK UOX MLU POE 35 ESE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OTH 45 W MHS UKI 35 SE MRY 25 ESE SMX 15 SSW RAL 20 WSW CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IN BASE OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH...OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...THE OTHER ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR BOTH FEATURES TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER... INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. CIRCULATION AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS ALREADY MOISTENED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE 50S/60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST/INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR ON WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE LAPSE RATES AND CAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT RISK FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST. ...WRN GULF COAST/SRN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE /ROUGHLY AROUND 925 MB/ WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FORCING OF INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS REGION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ITSELF COULD ALSO BECOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND TENDENCY FOR RELATIVELY WARM AND DEEPENING MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AHEAD OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEAR REMOTE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING LIFTING ACROSS THIS REGION TOWARD 03/00Z... INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF UPDRAFTS COULD BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SEEM TOO FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 16:37:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 11:37:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501021639.j02Gd54u006534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021636 SWODY1 SPC AC 021634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW UKI UKI 35 SE MRY 25 E SMX 20 NNW RAL 20 WNW CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 35 ENE SAT JCT 60 E FST 35 WNW MAF 50 W LBB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NNE DEC 20 NNE BMG 20 S OWB 30 WSW ELD 35 NE LFK 35 ESE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS FOR EARLY JANUARY REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SLOWING ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION...THOUGH NRN END WILL CONTINUE EWD BEFORE SLOWING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO WARM/STEEP TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION GIVEN THE LIMITED HEATING ANTICIPATED NEAR THE FRONT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH / NOW MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO / WILL INCREASE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CA COAST... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE ORE COAST WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SSWWD TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ..EVANS.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 19:49:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 14:49:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501021951.j02JpqVA005931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021949 SWODY1 SPC AC 021947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 35 ENE SAT JCT 60 E FST 35 WNW MAF 50 W LBB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NNE DEC 20 NNE BMG 20 S OWB 30 WSW ELD 35 NE LFK 35 ESE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW UKI UKI 35 SE MRY 25 E SMX 20 NNW RAL 20 WNW CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SERN OK EARLIER TODAY APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MOVED NEWD INTO THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT GLANCES OFF STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT. ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD WRN TX ATTM. PROFILERS ALREADY SHOW A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL FROM TX PNHDL THROUGH CNTRL OK TO THE LOWER OH VLY THIS EVENING. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS CAPPED AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS REACHING LFC ARE LOW. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ OVERNIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD DOME NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER GIVEN THE WARM COLUMN AND SHOULD NOT PROMOTE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA COASTAL AREAS... MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE W COAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN...PARTICULARLY TOWARD MORNING AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL STAY OFFSHORE. ..RACY.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 00:46:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 19:46:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501030048.j030mINY014077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030046 SWODY1 SPC AC 030044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 40 S SAT 30 SW JCT 40 SSE MAF 40 NW MAF 45 W LBB 15 SSW AMA 10 ENE ICT 30 SSE IRK 45 NNW DNV 15 NNE FWA 20 WSW FDY 40 S FDY 30 ENE DAY 20 NE LUK 30 SW SDF 30 ESE PBF 25 SE LFK 25 ENE HOU 25 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S UKI 20 NW SFO 20 NNE MRY 15 SSE PRB 20 N OXR 10 N LGB 25 SE LGB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/OH VALLEY... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX ENEWD ACROSS OK...MO...IL AND IND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN MO AND IL IN RESPONSE TO THE EXIT REGION OF A 30KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING NWD ACROSS THE OZARKS. IN ADDITION...THE ACTIVITY MAY BE EXPANDING DUE TO INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND NW AR. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE CONVECTION GETS INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO OK THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...CA COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF CA. A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH LESS OF A THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 05:42:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 00:42:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501030544.j035imZO024426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030542 SWODY1 SPC AC 030540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PRB 30 SW NID 20 WNW IGM 10 NW FLG 40 E SOW 40 W TCS 40 SE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 S HOB 25 N CVS 10 WNW LBL 25 S SLN 15 W CMI 25 SW IND 30 SE BMG 35 WSW SDF 45 WSW MEM GGG 40 S CLL 40 SW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND OH VALLEY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE FROM NW TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS OK...SRN MO INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM TX NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF STRONG LIFT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE VORTICITY MAX. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE AS THIS FEATURE COMES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN OK AND NW TX. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NNEWD QUICKLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. ANY MARGINAL THREAT WOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COOLER AIR ACROSS NRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ...CA/AZ... AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN TODAY WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH EACH PASSAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE PUNCHING INTO AZ AROUND 06Z WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WOULD APPEAR THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS POSSIBLY INITIATING ACROSS SRN AZ AND SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL AZ AND SW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 13:00:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 08:00:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501031302.j03D2dh4008421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031259 SWODY1 SPC AC 031257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW SFO NID GCN ABQ CAO RSL STJ BMI 10 E FWA 20 NNE FKL LBE CRW 40 SSW LOZ UOX 35 NNE MLU 30 S SHV 50 SW LFK 45 NNW NIR 40 WNW COT DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PHASING OF IMPULSES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST. STRONG DIGGING JET IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ASSOCIATED COLD CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH EASTWARD/INLAND PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO DOWNSTREAM LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME...BETWEEN EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS SYSTEM WEAKENS...MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD NEAR STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. NEXT INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... MODELS INDICATE TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WILL GENERALLY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS NEXT SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN PRIOR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...AS UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW BOTTOMS OUT AND BEGINS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STATES. STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 04/00Z...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST...STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF FRONT...FROM EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT IN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET WILL NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG COOLING ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL HAIL IN MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS NEAR SAN DIEGO...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. ..KERR.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 16:38:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 11:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501031640.j03GeSZp021987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031635 SWODY1 SPC AC 031634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ELP 20 E ALM 45 WNW CVS 45 N AMA 40 ESE P28 35 NE JLN 15 NW CGI 10 N MKL 35 NW GLH 45 W TYR 40 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MRY 35 NNE OXR 25 N RAL 30 SSW LAS 20 WSW GCN 15 E SOW 50 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... STRONGEST WLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLES SLOWLY SSEWD TOWARDS THE SRN CA COAST. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN WITHIN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST...INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROUGH. ONE SUCH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. SWLY LLJ EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER NERN TX/AR...CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONCENTRATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TX PLAINS ENEWD INTO NRN TX/OK...AS ASSOCIATED SLY LLJ INCREASES ACROSS TX. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS ORIGINATING WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL NOT DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALL READY IN PLACE. ..EVANS.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 19:41:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 14:41:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501031943.j03JhH4e031031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031941 SWODY1 SPC AC 031939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MRY 35 NNE OXR 25 N RAL 30 SSW LAS 20 WSW GCN 15 E SOW 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ELP 20 E ALM 45 WNW CVS 45 N AMA 40 ESE P28 35 NE JLN 15 NW CGI 10 N MKL 35 NW GLH 45 W TYR 40 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN CA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ABOUT 200-300 WEST OF LAX/SAN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-28 TO -30C AT 500MB/ SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...TX/OK... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTH TX INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AREA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ONLY MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TX AND WESTERN OK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. ..HART.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 00:51:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 19:51:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501040053.j040riUv026315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040051 SWODY1 SPC AC 040049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 10 ENE EDW 45 SW LAS 40 SW GCN 35 SE INW 25 NE SAD 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 15 E ALM 65 W CVS 45 E DHT 30 SE P28 40 NW SGF 20 WNW CGI 20 SSW PAH 15 N MKL 25 N GLH 20 ENE SHV 20 SE ACT 45 NW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM SRN MO THROUGH AR INTO NORTH TX. THE FRONT THEN EXTENDS NWWD INTO WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NE TX INTO ERN AR. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY...LIKELY WEAKENING NEAR THE MS RIVER OR IN WRN TN. LATER TONIGHT...THE ETA/GFS MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS TX AND OK. THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN OK. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SERN NM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP THE CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY EXPAND AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS NEAR THE SFC MAY ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN NW TX AND SWRN OK. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ...CA/AZ... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. 23Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SRN CA COAST AND CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH VALUES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM BY MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR SAN DIEGO SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY...0-1 KM SHEAR BELOW 10 KT AND BACKING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE STORMS MOVE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 05:38:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 00:38:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501040540.j045eE25018359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040538 SWODY1 SPC AC 040536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 55 NE DAG 55 NNE LAS 10 N MLF 35 W PUC 45 NNW GJT 55 E GUC 45 N GCK 50 NNE SZL 30 ESE MIE 25 ESE DAY 55 E LUK 45 ENE LEX 50 SW BNA 25 ENE ELD 65 SW TYR 55 S BWD 45 NNE P07 50 WNW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND OH VALLEY... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS AR AND NORTH TX EXTENDING WWD INTO WEST TX. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES OUT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND ACCELERATE EWD AS A STRONG 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER WEST TEXAS HELPING TO INITIATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE TX PANHANDLE IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 03Z IN THE TX PANHANDLE SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...NORTH TX AND OK BY THE EVENING HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A BROAD 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS CAUSING THE FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING NWD. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING THE COLD DENSE AIR TOO FAR BACK TO THE NORTH WHICH MEANS THE INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE WOULD BE MINIMAL. HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN...A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY VERIFIES. IN THAT CASE...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD PROBABLY BECOME NECESSARY. IN ANY CASE...AN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND TRACK EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OK AND FAR NORTH TX. ...SWRN STATES... THE UPPER-LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HEATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 12:45:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 07:45:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501041247.j04ClLjQ010877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041245 SWODY1 SPC AC 041244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CDS PVW 10 SSW AMA 45 WNW OKC 40 ESE OKC ADM 15 ESE SPS 60 S CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 55 NE DAG 55 NNE LAS CDC 4HV MTJ 35 SW PUB 45 N GCK 50 NNE SZL MIE 20 NE LUK LEX 10 ESE BNA 10 SSW MEM 15 SSW PBF 50 W TYR 10 SSE BWD 45 NNE P07 50 WNW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TX AND SWRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IS MOVING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO SRN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE EWD TODAY ACROSS CA AND SRN NV...OPENING TONIGHT INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN BEFORE REACHING THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN MO/NWRN AR SWWD INTO NRN TX/SERN NM MAY BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SWRN UPPER SYSTEM...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN EXISTING COLD AIR MASS SUGGEST MODELS ARE MOVING FRONT TOO FAR NWD. ...NW TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK... FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND SREF CONTROL RUN OF THE ETAKF INDICATE MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE LAYER AS SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER TX AND OK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONG SLY FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AND MODEST STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NW TX INTO SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OK INTO NRN AR/SRN MO. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD TODAY...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLATEAU ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN TX ACROSS OK THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING /ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT/ AS STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING STARTING OVER PARTS OF NW TX...SPREADING EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ELEVATED CAPE INDICATES PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..WEISS.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 16:33:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 11:33:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501041635.j04GZfnx027671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 40 NNW TRM 20 NW LAS CDC 40 SSW GUC 15 NNW TAD 20 SSE EHA 40 W HUT 50 NNE SZL 35 SSE SPI 25 N EVV 35 SSW OWB 40 ENE MKL 10 SSW MEM 15 SSW PBF 30 SSE DAL 45 WNW SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... INTENSE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE WEST TX PLAINS...AND WILL ENHANCE FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AS STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER WRN AND NWRN TX WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD ENEWD INTO OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BECOME TOO VIGOROUS GIVEN SATURATED MID LEVELS AND RESULTANT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. ...SWRN STATES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH POCKET OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELDS REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ..EVANS.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 19:56:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 14:56:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501041958.j04JwHiT004881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041955 SWODY1 SPC AC 041954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 40 NNW TRM 20 NW LAS 10 SE CDC 40 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 55 ESE GUC 45 NNW CAO 30 SW LBL 35 SSE DDC 15 W STJ 15 ESE IRK 15 W MTO 45 SW BMG 35 WSW OWB 30 SSE CGI 20 NNW ARG 35 N HOT 30 SSE FTW 45 WNW SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN TX/SWRN OK... WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NWRN TX BUT SHOULD ADVANCE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM...A NWD SURGE INTO SERN OK AND MUCH OF AR WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER ACROSS THIS REGION AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NWRN OK/SRN KS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO MO AND SRN IL AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD POSE LITTLE THREAT OF HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. IN THE NEAR TERM...ONE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE LACK OF DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM FOCUS OF LLJ INTO THE MS VALLEY. LATER TONIGHT ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ENHANCE ORGANIZED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 00:50:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 19:50:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501050052.j050qdLr014859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 40 NNW TRM 20 NW LAS 10 SE CDC 40 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 55 ESE GUC 45 NNW CAO 30 SW LBL 35 SSE DDC 15 W STJ 15 ESE IRK 15 W MTO 45 SW BMG 35 WSW OWB 30 SSE CGI 20 NNW ARG 35 N HOT 30 SSE FTW 50 N SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT SERN OK-NCNTRL TX-JUST NORTH OF KMAF. 00Z KMAF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS CAPPED WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EWD. PER 00Z KMAF SOUNDING AND FORECAST RUC PROFILES...PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 5KFT EXHIBIT CAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG. GIVEN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 70-80 KTS...ISOLD ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OK AND NWRN TX OVERNIGHT AS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ..RACY.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 04:58:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 23:58:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501050500.j0550Pf4003365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050458 SWODY1 SPC AC 050456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GGG 45 WNW TPL 30 NW JCT 25 WNW SJT 55 E LBB 35 ESE LBL 50 SSW RSL 30 N MHK 20 WNW DSM 20 NNW DBQ 50 SW MBL 30 S HTL 15 ESE FNT 25 WNW CLE 40 WSW LUK 35 SW OWB 35 SW MKL 30 W GLH 25 SSE SHV 25 S GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT H5 JET WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT. AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN OK EARLY WED TO LOWER OH VLY WED EVENING TO SWRN OH EARLY THU. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z/THU. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX/OK NEWD INTO THE OZARKS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE OH VLY BY WED NIGHT. STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY WWD...AND THUS TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD EWD INTO THE OH VLY WITH TIME. GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR...PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SERN TX NEWD TO THE MID MS VLY APPEAR LOW. MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED ATOP THE COLD AIR...NEAR/ NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ...ERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... THERE WILL BE A SEPARATE CONCENTRATED TSTM THREAT ALONG/NORTH OF DEEPENING H7 LOW FROM SCNTRL KS EARLY WED...ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO WED AFTERNOON AND INTO NRN IL/SERN WI/SRN MI WED NIGHT WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE 100-150 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED NEAR 650 MB AND CLOUD TOPS AOB MINUS 20C. GIVEN THE STRONG LARGE SCALE H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 180 METERS/12 HRS...SPORADIC LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN. ..RACY.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 12:53:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 07:53:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501051255.j05Ct4up020195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051253 SWODY1 SPC AC 051251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GGG 35 SE SEP 30 ENE ABI 10 NE LTS END 10 SE EMP LWD CID DBQ 50 SW MBL GRR 30 NW FWA 15 SSE IND 35 SW OWB 35 SW MKL 30 W GLH 25 SSE SHV 25 S GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OK/NRN TX ACROSS MIDDLE MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EVENING...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OH VALLEY...WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN/WRN TX WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX ACROSS OK AND SRN MO HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM OK ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND IL TOWARD WRN IN THIS EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER MO AND IL. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX AND AR. ..WEISS.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 16:36:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 11:36:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501051638.j05GcZF7000358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051627 SWODY1 SPC AC 051626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ELD 15 E GGG 40 NNW ACT 25 WNW MWL 35 WNW ADM 20 WSW MKO 30 W HRO 30 WSW JBR 45 W MEM 25 E ELD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEY... APPEARS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESSENING THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS REMAINS SATURATED WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ABOVE H85 SUGGESTS ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF ERN OK/NRN TX INTO AR. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL POSSIBLE...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CONVECTION FROM ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA TODAY...AND EVEN ALONG NOSE OF LLJ INTO IL/IND/WRN OH LATER TONIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SUCH A LARGE GENERAL THUNDER FORECAST. ..EVANS.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 19:34:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 14:34:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501051935.j05JZtbo002803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051933 SWODY1 SPC AC 051932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ELD GGG 40 WNW TYR 30 NNW DAL 25 N DUA 20 W FSM 35 ESE HRO 30 WSW JBR 45 W MEM 15 ESE ELD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX... FRONTAL SURGE CONTINUES ACROSS TX AND AR AS POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT WHERE FRONTAL ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL ENCOURAGE ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FROM EXTREME NERN TX INTO SERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO PORTIONS OF AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN SPARSE-ISOLATED AND THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS GENERALLY WEAK. ..DARROW.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 00:51:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 19:51:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501060053.j060r076003183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060050 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEAMPLIFYING/ACCELERATING AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER LOWER OH VALLEY -- WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS OH...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER WRN/MID TN...REMAINDER AR...MUCH OF LA...AND OFFSHORE MOST OF TX COAST. EXPECT FRONT TO DECELERATE OVER TX GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...MORE POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SWWD EXTENT. ALTHOUGH 50-250 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE WAS EVIDENT IN 00Z SHV/LZK RAOBS...EXPECT ASCENT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM AREA. THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OVERALL TSTM THREAT HAS BECOME QUITE ISOLATED AND PROBABILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 05:47:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 00:47:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501060549.j065nQk3009550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060547 SWODY1 SPC AC 060545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLH MLU VCT NIR HDO ACT LIT 55 ENE PBF GLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD FETCH OF SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEX NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...PARALLEL TO DECELERATING SFC FRONT OVER EXTREME NWRN GULF. EXPECT SFC FRONT TO REMAIN OFFSHORE MID/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH IT MAY RETREAT NWD ENOUGH TO APCH GLS-BPT CORRIDOR AROUND 07/12Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES AND ERN ORE -- IS FCST TO PHASE WITH CURRENTLY SEPARATE AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW WELL OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA. THOUGH NOT DIRECTLY IMPINGING ON AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER TX/AR/LA...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME TO ITS SE. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SERN AR... TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE WITH TIME AFTER 07/00Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER FRONTAL ZONE...WITH INCREASINGLY SATURATED PARCELS REACHING LFC. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF 40-50 KT LLJ OVERNIGHT...FROM DEEP S TX AND ADJACENT GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN LA. MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 50-300 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING BY END OF PERIOD ALONG AND LEFTWARD OF LLJ AXIS...WITH CAPE EXTENDING THROUGH FAVORABLE LAYERS FOR STORM ELECTRIFICATION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 12:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 07:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501061231.j06CVErN025824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061228 SWODY1 SPC AC 061227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM 45 W CBM 20 NNW JAN POE VCT NIR HDO ACT LIT MEM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY CONTINUES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WRN PART OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NWRN GULF BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NWWD TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. ...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL SURFACE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER SRN/ERN TX/NRN LA...TRANSPORTING AN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER FROM ERN TX ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR INTO NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY UP TO 250 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 297K THETA SURFACE COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS THROUGH OH VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA/SRN AR AND POSSIBLY NRN MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..WEISS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 16:08:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 11:08:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501061610.j06GALTr025160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061556 SWODY1 SPC AC 061554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR... RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD ERN TX TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH RESPONDING INCREASE IN SLY LLJ ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT WELL NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. APPEARS ISENTROPIC LIFTING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO BECOME WEAKLY BUOYANT AFTER 06Z AND RESULT IN INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS AMOUNT/DEPTH OF RESULTANT CAPE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 19:52:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 14:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501061954.j06JsXfY027436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061951 SWODY1 SPC AC 061949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GULF COAST... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARY ABOUT 60MI EAST OF BRO. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ILL-DEFINED BEFORE REFORMING WELL INLAND OVER NRN MS LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ENSURE LAYERED CLOUDINESS/DEEP MOIST PROFILES...ALTHOUGH LACKING IN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AIRMASS CAN RECOVER AND BECOME MORE BUOYANT. ..DARROW.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 00:48:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 19:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501070050.j070oZ9u010496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070047 SWODY1 SPC AC 070045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FCST ACROSS CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PHASING FROM BLACK HILLS REGION SWWD ACROSS UT...AND COMBINED FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TO ITS SE...LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE...N OF FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE TX COAST. LAST VIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHARPENING DEFINITION TO FRONTAL WAVE LOCATED 85-90 SE CRP AND DRIFTING NWD. PRIND SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE...COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN PACIFIC...WITH CLOSEST CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM W SFO. ...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN... INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ISENTROPICALLY OVER RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL/BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN BAND OF SHOWERS NOW OVER E TX EXPANDING/MOVING ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD NRN MS. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THAT PRECIP BAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATED LACK OF ELEVATED CAPE...TSTM PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW ATTM TO REINSTATE CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA. ...COASTAL SRN CA... MOISTURE CHANNEL AND IR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED SPORADIC COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION FOR PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE AND SERN SEMICIRCLE OF OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS INCLUDES SOME CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT INVOF 32N125W AND MOVING EWD. AS ASSOCIATED ZONE OF DPVA AND MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION APCH SRN CA LATE TONIGHT... ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER MAY OCCUR INVOF COAST OR CHANNEL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT GEN TSTM OUTLOOK OVER LAND. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 05:16:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 00:16:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501070518.j075IT06002261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070516 SWODY1 SPC AC 070514 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E PSX HOU GGG TXK LIT MKL BNA CSV CHA GAD MEI 50 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 20 N OXR RAL 40 SSE RAL 30 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THIS PERIOD...FEATURING TWO PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. FIRST -- NOW ANALYZED FROM DAKOTAS SWWD ACROSS UT...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING MS VALLEY AROUND 08/06Z THEN ACCELERATING/DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD GREAT LAKES. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM FL PANHANDLE WSWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF -- WILL REMAIN WELL SE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY SEPARATELY FROM WAVE NOW OFFSHORE LOWER/MID TX COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRONOUNCED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM...WITH CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED NEAR 36N130W. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO DEAMPLIFY AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND 07/18Z...THOUGH IT MAY MAKE LANDFALL STRONGER THAN PROGGED BASED ON WELL-FORMED SPIRAL SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY AND POSSIBILITY OF PRESSURES AS LOW AS AROUND 980 MB...BASED ON UNCORROBORATED SHIP REPORT FROM 07/00Z. MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/TIMING...AND WITH LEAVING COLDEST/MOST UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL AIR FARTHER N AND W OVER PACIFIC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SWD OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD TURN BACK NWD OR NNEWD AGAIN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT BRUSHING COASTAL PACIFIC NW. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG MUCH OF PACIFIC COAST...SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. ...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO PORTIONS TN VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF CLOUDS/PRECIP THAT SHOULD SHIFT/EXPAND EWD FROM E TX ACROSS MS DELTA REGION AND PORTIONS TN/MS/AL. LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING BUOYANCY ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONT OVER WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...NEWD TOWARD NRN AL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE TO NEAR 600 J/KG BEHIND FRONT AND SIMILAR DIURNAL MLCAPE VALUES IN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. ...SRN/CENTRAL CA... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE AS OFFSHORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS...THROUGH LATE MORNING. BETWEEN 15-19Z...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS OVER L.A. BASIN REGION BEFORE 19Z AND OVER PORTIONS SAN JOAQUIN/SAC VALLEY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS EXCEEDING 65 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 J/KG. HOWEVER...SEVERAL FACTORS INDICATE BUOYANCY WILL BE MINIMAL...INCLUDING 1. EARLY TIMING OF TROUGH ARRIVAL COMPARED TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING... 2. LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND 3. WEAKENING OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COOLING/DPVA WITH TIME. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS REASONABLY DEPICT MIDLEVEL WARM/CAPPING LAYER AHEAD OF TROUGH...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. SUBSEQUENTLY...MUCAPE UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH AND W OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY VEERED SFC FLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. THEREFORE WILL OUTLOOK SOME TSTM POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY INVOF IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 12:57:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 07:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501071259.j07CxbJV005376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071257 SWODY1 SPC AC 071255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 30 W LFK 25 NE TYR TXK 10 S PBF 20 ESE MEM 10 NE BNA CSV CHA GAD 55 ESE MEI 40 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 35 NNE OXR LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE NM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER OK TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A SHALLOW FRONT ACROSS S GA AND THE IMMEDIATE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE INLAND/REFORM FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL LA/MS/NRN AL BY LATE TODAY...S OF THE ONGOING RAIN BAND FROM NW LA TO MIDDLE TN. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SW LA TO CENTRAL MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS INLAND THROUGH ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL DESTABILIZE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR PARCELS BASED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE INVOF THE SABINE RIVER...AND CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO MS/AL/TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE REASONABLY STRONG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL LIMIT CAPE AND ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. ...PACIFIC COAST AREA... A DEEP/COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS AS A SEPARATE WAVE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EJECTS EWD AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. SOME CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING OVER CENTRAL CA TODAY...WHILE LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MAY SKIRT THE COAST FROM NW CA TO WA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 16:27:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 11:27:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501071629.j07GTGK5023197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071617 SWODY1 SPC AC 071615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BPT 50 SW TYR 30 S PRX HOT DYR BWG 50 SE BNA HSV MEI LUL GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 10 W RAL SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS INTO THE TN VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NM/WEST TX BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS...INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM LA INTO NORTHERN AL/MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SHALLOW COOL/STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...WEST COAST... LARGE/DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM ORE INTO SOUTHERN CA. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. ..HART.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 19:45:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 14:45:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501071947.j07JlUSX000589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071944 SWODY1 SPC AC 071942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BPT 25 W POE 20 WSW SHV 25 S TXK 25 E LIT 20 SSW DYR 25 S CKV 20 ENE BNA 50 WSW CSV 20 NW BHM 25 NE LUL 25 S MCB 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 10 W RAL 35 NNE SAN 15 SE SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SOON SHIFT AWAY FROM NRN GULF STATES. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG WIND SHIFT FROM SWRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED FOR A FEW DEEPER UPDRAFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS YET TO NEUTRALIZE. AS LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AIRMASS RECOVERY INTO THE TN VALLEY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ...WEST COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. WITH INITIAL BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THIS REGION...THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COAST. ..DARROW.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 00:56:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 19:56:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501080058.j080wEEK010104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080055 SWODY1 SPC AC 080053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 30 NW LFT 15 WSW JAN GWO 60 SSW CKV BNA 40 NE CSV TYS SEM 35 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD FETCH OF WSWLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM PACIFIC OFFSHORE SRN CA..TO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS OZARK PLATEAU. EXPECT THAT TROUGH TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE...EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...COLD FRONT WITH WEAK LOWS OVER CENTRAL/NRN MS IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MORE OF MS...SRN LA AND AL DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS KY AND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS CA AND WILL CONTINUE DEAMPLIFYING TONIGHT OVER GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...EXPECT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE WA TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH 06-09Z PERIOD THEN TURN NEWD TOWARD CAPE FLATTERY AND VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 12Z. ...MS DELTA TO TN VALLEY... BAND OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND BROKEN LINE OF EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM S-CENTRAL LA NEWD TO N-CENTRAL/NWRN AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS/AL AND SERN LA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN OVERALL COVERAGE. EXPECT REMAINING INSTABILITY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER SERN LA AND COASTAL MS...AND AOB 200 J/KG FARTHER INLAND. LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION -- EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER E TX...SRN OK AND SWRN AR...WILL IMPINGE ON REGION FROM W AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS AWAY FROM REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH FROM W-E AND WITH TIME. ...W COAST... TSTM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER COASTAL CENTRAL/SRN CA WITH INLAND PASSAGE AND WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES. A FEW CG LIGHTING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WELL OFFSHORE ORE COAST...IN REGION OF SHALLOW/COLD-CORE CB ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LOW. EPISODIC LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WA/ORE COAST AS PERIPHERY OF SOME OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 02:48:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:48:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501080249.j082ntZ3020527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080243 SWODY1 SPC AC 080242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MCB 20 NNE LUL TCL BHM 40 SSW ANB MGM 45 N PNS MOB GPT 45 NNE MSY 30 SSE MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 7R4 25 NNE BTR 20 NNW LUL CBM 35 NNE MSL 10 ESE BNA 40 NE CSV 50 S TYS 20 ESE LGC 30 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL/SERN MS/SERN LA... AMENDED FOR SVR POTENTIAL PORTIONS MS/LA/AL ...MIDDLE GULF COASTAL PLAIN... SEVERE TSTM THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM SERN LA TO CENTRAL AL...WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR IS OFFSETTING WEAK BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND A FEW ROTATING CELLS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 44 AND WW 1 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 05:29:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 00:29:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501080531.j085VDmW018126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080528 SWODY1 SPC AC 080527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW HUM MOB MGM 30 W ATL ATL MCN TLH 35 S AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID -LOWER MS VALLEY -- IS DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD TOWARD GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AROUND 09/00Z...LEAVING BEHIND BROAD ZONE OF WSWLY/SWLY FLOW FROM COAST TO COAST. UPSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OFF WA/ORE COAST IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE ERRATICALLY BUT REMAIN GENERALLY IN SAME AREA...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND ITS CENTER. AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER TN SHOULD EJECT NEWD THROUGH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SFC AIR AND OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC -- AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROGGED TO STALL/WEAKEN NEAR PRESENT POSITION...BUT SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED EWD ACROSS AL/GA EARLY IN PERIOD BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ...SERN CONUS... AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATES AWAY FROM AREA...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE TSTMS NOW OVER DELTA REGION AND AL WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 08/12Z. VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN MOIST SECTOR SHOULD REDUCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...EXPECT WEAK CAPPING AND MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIR MASS -- WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F -- TO REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TSTMS WITHIN PLUME OF PRECIP ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPS SHOULD WEAKEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO LIKEWISE DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. ...PACIFIC COAST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER PACIFIC WATERS...OCCASIONALLY CROSSING OVER ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NWRN CA THROUGH WA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING LIGHTNING BENEATH COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS OFFSHORE ORE. AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ROTATE THROUGH ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THAT LOW...ASSOCIATED ZONES OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AFFECT COAST INTERMITTENTLY AND THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...GIVEN LACK OF MOVEMENT OF MAIN UPPER AIR CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLATED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AFFECT COAST IN ANY GIVEN INTERVAL OF A FEW HOURS...PROBABLE CUMULATIVE COVERAGE THROUGH WHOLE PERIOD WARRANTS GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:57:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501081259.j08CxWMl023375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081257 SWODY1 SPC AC 081255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA 25 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 30 ESE MOB 10 S TOI 10 NNE LGC 20 SE ATL MCN 20 WNW MGR 10 SSW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE OH VALLEY TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WV...BUT THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END BY 13Z. FARTHER S...A WEAKENING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ACROSS SE AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE IMMEDIATE SE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE OH VALLEY LOW. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING ASCENT WITH TIME SUGGEST THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ...WA/ORE COASTS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW W OF AST...WITH A BROAD FIELD OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR AND OFF THE SW WA AND ORE COASTS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -32 C AND MEAN LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM BELOW 500 MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE COAST...WHILE A COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FARTHER INLAND. ..THOMPSON.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 16:31:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 11:31:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501081633.j08GXTW7010582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA 25 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB TOI CSG ABY 25 SSE TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... FAST ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC COAST. SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ...PACIFIC COAST... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WA/ORE AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGES. LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWS CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. ..HART.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 19:56:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 14:56:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501081958.j08JwKw9003943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081955 SWODY1 SPC AC 081953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA 25 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP...ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM...FROM COASTAL WA/ORE WWD BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. LATEST SATELLITE SUPPORTS THIS WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NEWD TOWARD THE COAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE EXPECTED GRADUAL FILLING OF THE UPPER LOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ID INTO NERN NV...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. ...FL PANHANDLE... SEWD-MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT...WARMER WATERS OF NRN GULF MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. ..DARROW.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 00:33:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 19:33:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501090034.j090YthD014836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090032 SWODY1 SPC AC 090030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 40 ENE CEC 50 WNW TVL 35 S MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW... COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS THIS EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND FROM NRN CA TO WRN WA. SHORT TERM LIGHTNING LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO NRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD...WITH WARMING MID-TROPOSPHERE ACROSS NRN CA AND SRN ORE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. THUS... GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE COASTAL RANGES OF NWRN ORE/SWRN WA OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. ..RACY.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 04:59:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 23:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501090501.j0951BR9009269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090458 SWODY1 SPC AC 090457 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL 10 W RAL 20 W CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ENERGETIC ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS AMERICA ON SUNDAY. LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE VOID OF TSTM PROBABILITIES...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE PAC COAST. UPPER LOW OFF WA/ORE WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND RETROGRADE SWWD. A PHASING PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...BETWEEN 22-26N/ 135-138W...APPEAR NOT WELL RECOGNIZED IN LATEST MODEL SUITE. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH SRN CA BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...WA/ORE/NRN CA COASTAL AREAS... HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES SWWD...UPPER RIDGING/MID-LEVEL WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE AND CAUSE THE EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO FALL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH TIME. ...SRN CA... STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SRN CA. CONVECTIVE THREATS WILL BE ENHANCED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH. MODEST LAPSE RATES ATOP MOIST MARINE LAYER WILL SUPPORT TSTMS... MAINLY FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO SWD TO SAN DIEGO. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..RACY.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 12:58:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 07:58:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501091300.j09D0CTw007232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091258 SWODY1 SPC AC 091256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 15 SE AST 40 WNW SLE 25 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL 10 W RAL 20 W CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 28 N AND 130 W WILL REACH SRN CA LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA CONFIRM A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SRN CA. FARTHER N...THE MID LEVEL LOW W OF AST IS FILLING AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS ALSO BE GRADUALLY SHRINKING. A TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC NW SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 16:12:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 11:12:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501091613.j09GDlvx008992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091609 SWODY1 SPC AC 091607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL 10 W RAL 20 W CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 15 SE AST 40 WNW SLE 25 SSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WITH MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE WA COAST. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST OFFSHORE...AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA/ORE WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER SOUTH...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE L.A. BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTENDS INLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN NV. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT ENLARGING THE OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 05:35:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 00:35:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501140538.j0E5c6gG000805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140536 SWODY1 SPC AC 140534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 35 WNW CHS 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AQQ 25 W VLD 15 ESE AGS 35 NE CLT 15 WNW NHK 15 SE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INCLUDING MUCH OF FL TODAY... ...SYNOPSIS... CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE DOMINATED BY EXTENSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS...WILL TRACK EAST TO THE COASTAL PLAIN/OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL EXTEND SWWD TO FL...AND THEN INTO THE ERN GULF. A PRONOUNCED LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF...WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROCEED ESEWD ACROSS FL THROUGH TODAY. ...ERN CAROLINAS/GA EARLY... STRONG DEEP LAYER SSWLY/MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE ERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN OVERALL SLOW EWD PROGRESSION TO THE FRONTAL ZONE/SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SLOW MOVEMENT HAS ALLOWED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE STRONGER CONVERGENCE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE ENCOUNTERS THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR OCCASIONALLY VIGOROUS TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE ARE PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT LOCALLY MODEST HODOGRAPH CURVATURE DOES EXIST IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...FROM ERN NC SWWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...FL... TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION... COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TSTMS OVER FL TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR INITIALLY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...AND/OR FRONTAL WAVE...MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SR INFLOW AND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN FL...MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 12:58:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 07:58:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501141300.j0ED0khs031726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141258 SWODY1 SPC AC 141257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ILM 35 NE RWI 35 NW ORF 35 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 15 NW JAX 25 S SAV 30 W CRE 55 NNE RWI 25 NNE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BECOMING DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER CONUS NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SRN BRANCH TROUGH HAS RAPIDLY ACCELERATED NEWD ACROSS ERN U.S. AND IS DE AMPLIFYING UNDER INFLUENCE OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SSWWD NEAR NJ COAST AND ERN CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL FL...IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN THE MUCH COOLER...DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS. AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE...VERY STRONG SLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED WITH 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AIR THAT HAS COVERED E COAST WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO THE W. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE AT 13Z FROM SRN DE/ERN VA AND ERN NC WILL CONTINUE EWD TO OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS MORNING. STILL A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE. SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND VERY LOW LCL'S SUPPORT THIS THREAT. ...FL PENINSULA... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE NOW OVER CENTRAL FL AS LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS PULL NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED E AND S OF PREFRONTAL LINE. THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COUPLED WITH HEATING...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND POOR LAPSE RATES HAVE REDUCED SEVERE RISK FL PENINSULA FOR TODAY FROM EARLIER OUTLOOK. ..HALES.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 16:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 11:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501141632.j0EGWGb2001786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141627 SWODY1 SPC AC 141625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE OAJ 45 SW ECG 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 45 ENE RWI 20 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 SSE SRQ 10 E DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER ERN HUDSON BAY/NRN QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. IMPULSE WHICH RACED NE ACROSS THE OH VLY LATE YESTERDAY HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN STRONG SW FLOW ON ERN FLANK OF POLAR LOW AND HAS HELPED ACCELERATE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT E TO THE NC CAPES. FARTHER S...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WAS OVER NRN MEXICO AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED E INTO THE NERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SHOULD...HOWEVER...WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E/NE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. ...S FL... CORRIDOR OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR NOW OVER S FL WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD AND EWD. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST SURFACE HEATING...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BNDRY...ESPECIALLY INVOF APPARENT CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO FL FROM OFF THE NE COAST OF CUBA /PER STLT/. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /6.0 - 6.5 DEG C PER KM/...HEATING SHOULD BOOST MEAN MUCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MODERATE /25-30 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CELL MERGERS...SETUP WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...FAR ERN NC... COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD CLEAR THE NC CAPES BY 18Z. UNTIL THEN...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER FAR ERN NC GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONG /50+ KT/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW. ..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 19:26:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 14:26:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501141928.j0EJSodA002936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141926 SWODY1 SPC AC 141924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S FMY 50 ESE FMY 40 WNW PBI 15 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW-ENHANCED BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA FROM NEAR PBI SWWD INTO THE CNTRL FL KEYS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LARGER-SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN CANADA HAVE MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE LINE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ WHICH IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SERN PENINSULA WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE LAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY BY 100-150 MILES...CURRENT MIA VWP DOES INDICATE A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 00:37:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 19:37:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501150040.j0F0eGiL027997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150038 SWODY1 SPC AC 150036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEADING EDGE OF EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS NOW PASSED OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WITH BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM THE BAHAMAS SWWD TO THE FL STRAITS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR TSTMS DURING THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..CARBIN.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 05:23:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 00:23:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501150526.j0F5Qhwe015034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150525 SWODY1 SPC AC 150523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E EYW 45 W PBI 10 NNE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST...COUPLED WITH A MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM JET MAX MOVING FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN AREAS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONUS LAND AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS...SEGMENTS OF THE MOST RECENT POLAR FRONT HAVE STALLED ACROSS SRN FL WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY. ...SERN FL... WEAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL AID LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER SRN FL DURING THE DAY. WHILE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACT TO INITIALLY LIMIT CAPE/INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON HEATING AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS FORMING NEAR A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY MEAGER STORM UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR. ..CARBIN.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 12:47:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 07:47:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501151250.j0FCoATG019669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151247 SWODY1 SPC AC 151245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EYW 45 WNW MIA 30 N PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SE OF SRN FL. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON 12Z EYW SOUNDING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VICINITY AND JUST N OF FRONT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS...GRADUAL MID LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD RESULT IN FEW STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND S FL. ..HALES.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 16:30:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 11:30:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501151633.j0FGXYAh013841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151631 SWODY1 SPC AC 151629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD/STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR NEAR THE SE FL COAST...THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY FEED WILL REMAIN OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. ..THOMPSON.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 19:52:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 14:52:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501151954.j0FJsutj006720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151953 SWODY1 SPC AC 151951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ALONG/E FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SERN FL PENINSULA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS BOUNDARY AND INHERENT THUNDER THREAT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WITH PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 00:55:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 19:55:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501160057.j0G0vgPY000875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160056 SWODY1 SPC AC 160054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 04:38:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 23:38:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501160441.j0G4fJxE019479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160439 SWODY1 SPC AC 160437 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 12:30:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 07:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501161233.j0GCXLhN013425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161231 SWODY1 SPC AC 161229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..HALES.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 16:31:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 11:31:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501161633.j0GGXjPD000753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161631 SWODY1 SPC AC 161630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..THOMPSON.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 19:48:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 14:48:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501161950.j0GJojFK020329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161947 SWODY1 SPC AC 161946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..MEAD.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 05:36:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:36:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501170539.j0H5dZLY015345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170537 SWODY1 SPC AC 170536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LONG FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVANCING NEWD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO WA/ORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME IF LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 850MB. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 12:29:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 07:29:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501171232.j0HCWTsY007321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171230 SWODY1 SPC AC 171228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND OFF THE WA COAST. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NATION ON DAY1. ..HART.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 16:32:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 11:32:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501171634.j0HGYngn028501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171632 SWODY1 SPC AC 171630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..THOMPSON.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 19:49:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 14:49:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501171952.j0HJqDiQ008817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171950 SWODY1 SPC AC 171948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MIGHT OCCUR NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX AND NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THE U.S. MAINLAND WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 00:46:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 19:46:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501180049.j0I0nJPF030546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180048 SWODY1 SPC AC 180046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MINIMAL THUNDER THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO. THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRIKES MAY STRAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO FAR W TX...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN A STRAY STRIKE WITHIN PRECIPITATION PLUME OVER THE PAC NW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 05:08:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 00:08:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501180510.j0I5Akaf032151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180508 SWODY1 SPC AC 180506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THOUGH SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SWD / EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WITH TIME AS CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS / MIDWEST...THREAT FOR THUNDER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 12:48:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 07:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501181250.j0ICow9H026288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181248 SWODY1 SPC AC 181246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER PATTERN TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...AND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THE ONLY AREA WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT IN REGION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UVVS. HOWEVER...THIS RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A OUTLOOK AREA. ..HART.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 16:29:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 11:29:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501181632.j0IGW2bD018980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181629 SWODY1 SPC AC 181627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF AN ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A COLD/RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. ACROSS THE PAC NW...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE OVER WA...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES/MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FINALLY...12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER DEEP S TX...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN A STRONG MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER. ..THOMPSON.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 19:26:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 14:26:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501181928.j0IJSW0C026266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181925 SWODY1 SPC AC 181924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S TX... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER S TX THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS MODIFYING AIR OVER THE GULF ADVECTS INLAND. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LACK OF ASCENT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 00:29:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 19:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501190031.j0J0VaFV001693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190029 SWODY1 SPC AC 190027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...PRECLUDING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAC NW. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 05:28:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 00:28:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501190531.j0J5VMS1020506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190529 SWODY1 SPC AC 190527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED IN THE LARGE SCALE THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 12:47:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 07:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501191249.j0JCncch022641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191247 SWODY1 SPC AC 191245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RELATIVELY DRY...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ..HART.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 16:11:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 11:11:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501191613.j0JGDTVD026422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191607 SWODY1 SPC AC 191605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BENIGN PATTERN...WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS...WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS PERIOD. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN S OF THE U.S. BORDER. ..THOMPSON.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 19:27:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 14:27:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501191930.j0JJU4Xe014368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191928 SWODY1 SPC AC 191926 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE EASTERN U.S./ WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DIGGING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT PROGRESSES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. INITIATION OF ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 20/03-06Z TIME FRAME...BUT LIKELY WILL OCCUR 150-200 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS NC. ..KERR.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 00:37:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 19:37:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501200039.j0K0dshi024921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200038 SWODY1 SPC AC 200036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 05:38:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 00:38:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501200540.j0K5eplF013352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200539 SWODY1 SPC AC 200537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD SRN AZ AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS INLAND. DESPITE RELATIVELY STEEP/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS...IT APPEARS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE TOO MARGINAL FOR INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. ..DARROW.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 12:51:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 07:51:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501201253.j0KCraXW010118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201251 SWODY1 SPC AC 201249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. A FEW STRIKES MAY OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. ..HART.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 16:08:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 11:08:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501201611.j0KGBB9N006007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201607 SWODY1 SPC AC 201605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..HALES.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 19:54:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 14:54:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501201957.j0KJv4sh015256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201955 SWODY1 SPC AC 201953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DIAL.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 00:36:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 19:36:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501210038.j0L0ci9O000900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210036 SWODY1 SPC AC 210034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... NWD STREAMING WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS SPREADING INTO SRN AZ/SWRN NM AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TUS SUGGESTS THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ROUGHLY WITHIN THE 3-6KM LAYER AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TERRIBLY BUOYANT. THE ONLY REAL BUOYANCY IS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STEEPER. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER THIS PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 05:33:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:33:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501210536.j0L5a1eO011203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210534 SWODY1 SPC AC 210532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT ENEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VERY LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN AZ AS COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER. DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. ...ERN TN TO SRN OH... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. DESPITE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN OH...IT APPEARS DEEP WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO REGION OF DEEP ASCENT. CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA LATE BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 13:05:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 08:05:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501211307.j0LD7nlC017194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211305 SWODY1 SPC AC 211303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 70 ENE BLH 55 SE PHX 40 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND INTO MS VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT ACROSS THIS REGION -- AS WELL AS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS -- TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN AZ... WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING CONTINUES ATTM JUST S OF THE AZ / MEXICO BORDER...JUST NE OF UPPER LOW CENTER. WITH THIS LOW -- AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT -- FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD...GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AZ...WHERE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMITED COOLING ALOFT SHOULD YIELD SLIGHT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. ..GOSS.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 16:01:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 11:01:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501211603.j0LG3S0m007141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211556 SWODY1 SPC AC 211555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 75 SW PRC 55 SW SOW 40 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM UPR MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT LOWER OH VALLEY. CUT-OFF LOW VICINITY CENTRAL BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NEWD THRU THE PERIOD. ...SRN AZ... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND UPR LOW INTO SRN AZ. WHILE LITTLE INSTABILITY DEPICTED ON 12Z TUS SOUNDING...CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NRN SONORA TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN AZ. WITH UPPER LOW BURIED UNDER WRN RIDGE ANY MOVEMENT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC. ...TN VALLEY... MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN FROM WRN GULF OF MEXICO COUPLED WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD VICINITY TN VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND LATE TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 20:01:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 15:01:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501212003.j0LK3ftr022875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212000 SWODY1 SPC AC 211958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 75 SW PRC 55 SW SOW 40 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CA/SONORA REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AZ. IR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SONORA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES EXPECTED OVER SRN AZ WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DEVELOP NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD. ...TN VALLEY... MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 00:51:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 19:51:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501220053.j0M0rNYV019094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220051 SWODY1 SPC AC 220049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 25 ENE TUS 50 SSE SAD 60 SW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH ONE SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBE NOW ROTATING NWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ. THIS FEATURE ALLOWED SRN AZ TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...AND PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...IT APPEARS THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT ALONG THE BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 05:36:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:36:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501220538.j0M5cMQn031372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220536 SWODY1 SPC AC 220534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 15 W MSY 25 NNW GPT 40 NE MOB 35 WSW DHN MAI 20 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS 10 SSW FAY 40 N RWI 35 E RIC 15 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CAROLINAS/SERN VA... VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150-200M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY 00Z/23RD. RETREATING WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM COASTAL SC...NNEWD INTO SERN VA OR PERHAPS SRN MD. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT AND GREATER COVERAGE TO AREAS OFFSHORE. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF STATES TOWARD COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STEEPEN/COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS WITHIN MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...OR MORE LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING. ..DARROW.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 13:02:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 08:02:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501221304.j0MD4ItS025169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221302 SWODY1 SPC AC 221300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 15 W MSY 25 NNW GPT 40 NE MOB 35 WSW DHN MAI 20 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CHS 25 ESE FLO 30 W OAJ 15 ESE RWI 65 SW RIC 30 SW DCA 15 NNW ILG 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LEX 35 SE DAY 25 SSE MFD 25 SE YNG 10 NNE LBE 10 NNW EKN 30 SSW CRW 25 WNW JKL 35 NNE LEX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE YUM 35 NW PHX 55 WNW SAD 25 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER NRN IA AND NW IND EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE BUT PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E OFF THE NJ CST EARLY SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CENTER STRENGTHENS S OF CAPE COD. ...UPR OH VLY... EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MIDWESTERN DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /TOTAL TOTALS INDICES AROUND 48/...MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDER OVER OH/NRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST EWD INTO WRN PA/WRN WV THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND THAT TIME AS AREA OF STRONGEST ASCENT LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM 850 MB THERMAL AXIS. THE CONVECTION WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. ...MID ATL CST... HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 210M WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN FROM HAT TO NYC LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW INTENSIFIES JUST W OF REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL REACH NRN NC/SRN VA AND ENCOURAGE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT NEAR ECG. OVERALL SETUP WILL FAVOR VERY STRONG ASCENT IN WARM ADVECTION AREA OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO SE PA/NJ. SHALLOW COLD AIR WEDGE WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. BUT STRONG UPLIFT IN PRESENCE OF SATURATED...NEARLY NEUTRAL LOW TO MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS EXPERIENCING SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE SURFACE. ...ERN CAROLINAS... FARTHER S...PASSAGE OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. FARTHER W...EXPECT SHALLOW DOME OF COOL AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SC/NC CST NEWD INTO EXTREME SE VA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LIMITED TIME FOR BOUNDARY LATER MOISTURE ADVECTION /GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/ SUGGEST THAT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY ONSHORE SEVERE THREAT. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MAY... HOWEVER...DEVELOP JUST OFF THE NC/VA CAPES LATER TONIGHT. ...SRN AZ... ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ON NRN FRINGE OF NW MEXICAN UPPER LOW...WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO COEXIST. ...CNTRL GULF CST... DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES SE TOWARD COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...DEEP THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY NOT STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ALONG COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR NEAR OR ...MORE LIKELY...JUST OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING. ..CORFIDI.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 16:28:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 11:28:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501221631.j0MGV8Kl008357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221625 SWODY1 SPC AC 221623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 10 N OAJ 10 ESE RWI 55 S RIC 15 ENE RIC 15 WSW NHK 30 W DOV 20 NE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING ALONG COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE CAROLINAS WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME DOMINANT LOW AS MAJOR STORM DEVELOPS OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. SHARP COASTAL FRONT LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE EXCEPT OUTER BANKS NC THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD WEDGE E OF APPALACHIANS IS QUITE STRONG. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50-60 KT THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING AREA OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN NC TO OFFSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD BY THIS EVENING AT LEAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY. ...SRN AZ... AS UPPER LOW HAS WOBBLED BACK TO THE W ...OVER CENTRAL BAJA...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD WWD INTO SERN AZ. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY S OF AZ BORDER WITH A FEW STRIKES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE SONORA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ...GULF COAST... LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AREA AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY SEWD TO OFFSHORE GULF COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT. PREDOMINANT WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH LITTLE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 19:58:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 14:58:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501222000.j0MK0dtX005352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221958 SWODY1 SPC AC 221956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 10 N OAJ 10 ESE RWI 55 S RIC 15 ENE RIC 15 WSW NHK 30 W DOV 20 NE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL AREAS OF MID ATLANTIC STATES... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 110 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...DEEPENING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST...WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY PER ANALYZED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS UP TO 9 MB/3 HR ACROSS THIS AREA...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MAJOR STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC OUTER BANKS. N-S EXTENSIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD AIR DAMMING JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS QUITE STRONG AS INDICATED BY GSO/IAD 18Z SOUNDINGS. THE LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA PERSISTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ACROSS ERN NC TO SRN NJ. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 00:43:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 19:43:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501230045.j0N0jPUd031832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230043 SWODY1 SPC AC 230041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE EWN 30 NNE EWN 45 WNW ECG 35 ESE RIC 20 SSE NHK 25 SSW DOV 20 WSW ACY 15 E NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NJ/DE SWD TO NERN NC... INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION INTO NERN NC. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 05:30:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 00:30:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501230533.j0N5XEv0014056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230531 SWODY1 SPC AC 230529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE W...A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IN MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/138W/ APPROACHES THE W COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL BAJA CA WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. ...SRN AZ... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ALONG OR JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER AREA ATTM. ..MEAD.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 12:24:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 07:24:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501231226.j0NCQpCw027324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231225 SWODY1 SPC AC 231223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 WSW GBN 15 SSW PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW 30N/135W APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED UPON MOVING INTO BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. AS PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OVER THE PACIFIC...EXPECT IMPULSE TO TURN MORE NEWD LATER TODAY AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA TO LIFT N TOWARD THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. ...SRN AZ... LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN QUARTER OF AZ THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS BAJA UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS AGREE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF SYSTEM... WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF THUNDER DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. ..CORFIDI.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 16:14:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 11:14:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501231616.j0NGGkeL011280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231612 SWODY1 SPC AC 231610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 WSW GBN 15 SSW PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA REGION...JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER. THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL OVER THE U.S...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION LATER TODAY. ..EVANS.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 19:37:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501231939.j0NJdrm1001526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231937 SWODY1 SPC AC 231935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 WSW GBN 15 SSW PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED A SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CA AND SONORA MEXICO. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SWRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AT 28N 130W PROGRESSES EWD. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 00:37:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 19:37:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501240039.j0O0dPEl030222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240037 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 35 WSW GBN 45 SE PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY MOVED/DEVELOPED NWWD ACROSS SONORA AND WRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO TO VICINITY OF THE AZ BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CA. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z TUS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH A MULI OF -1 AND MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 15 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. 7 C/KM / AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT N OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AZ. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 05:26:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 00:26:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501240528.j0O5SsJ6031237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240526 SWODY1 SPC AC 240524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST...AND AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION /CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CA OR NWRN SONORA MEXICO/ LIFTS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE E...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND IN WAKE OF DEEP...CLOSED LOW SHIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. ...WRN NM... APPROACH OF COLD POOL /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH MOBILE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THESE LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED OWING TO THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUS...A GENERAL TSTM AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED ATTM. ...CA CNTRL VALLEY... THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT AIR MASS MOISTENING INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...NAMELY IN THE 750 TO 550 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND ANY RESULTANT LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 12:38:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 07:38:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501241240.j0OCeLhx016797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241238 SWODY1 SPC AC 241236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 15 NE TUS 65 ESE PHX 10 SW SOW 55 SW GNT 25 N ONM 35 WSW 4CR 40 SE TCS 45 SW SVC 20 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE ACROSS SRN AZ THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE E INTO NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR 32N/128W EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE OFF THE CA CST AHEAD OF STRONGER/BROADER UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING 140W. ...SRN/ERN AZ INTO WRN NM... THUNDER THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER SRN AZ DURING THE OVERNIGHT MAY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS ALONG A W/E AXIS NEAR TUS/FHU. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ERN RIM COUNTRY EWD INTO PARTS OF NM LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER VORT CENTER DESTABILIZE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER NIGHTFALL. ...CNTRL CA... SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM GLANCING THE CNTRL CA CST. DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AOA 700MB MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER VORT CENTER LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SUBSTANTIAL CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING. ..CORFIDI.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 16:28:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 11:28:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501241630.j0OGURGg016072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241624 SWODY1 SPC AC 241622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 40 N TUS 60 WSW SOW 40 ESE INW 15 SE GUP 30 SW ABQ 35 WSW 4CR 40 SE TCS 45 SW SVC 20 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NNEWD INTO ERN AZ/WRN NM TODAY AND THEN ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD ERN AZ/WRN NM AND LIKELY SUPPORT RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN HALF OF INTERIOR CA... LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD INLAND AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CA COAST...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -20C. IN ADDITION INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..EVANS.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 20:00:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 15:00:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501242002.j0OK2hw0018294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242000 SWODY1 SPC AC 241959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE GBN 55 E PHX 30 SSW INW GUP 30 SW ABQ ONM TCS SVC 45 SW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NNWWD THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES AND TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD INTO ATLANTIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN AZ...IS GOING TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN TURN EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 25/12Z. ...AZ/NM... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING NUMBER/DEPTH OF TCU AND CB OVER MUCH OF THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...MARGINAL BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE WITH 30S/40S F SFC DEW POINTS...OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED LIFT AND WEAKENING CINH. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES UP TO 300 J/KG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO WHITE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND SMALL CB MAY MOVE ASHORE COASTAL CA...IN ERN PERIPHERY OF ZONE OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT GEN THUNDER FCST. AIR MASS E OF ROCKIES REMAINS TOO DRY/STABLE FOR TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 00:34:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 19:34:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501250036.j0P0ak0x026606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250034 SWODY1 SPC AC 250032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GNT 45 WNW 4SL 50 N SAF 15 SSW LVS 35 E 4CR 30 E ALM 30 S TCS 55 W ONM 10 W GNT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM... ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL NM WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION. DESPITE LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY OBSERVED IN THE 00Z ABQ SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT MODESTLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FOR ASCENT HAVE SUSTAINED ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 05:23:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 00:23:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501250525.j0P5Phhd001797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250521 SWODY1 SPC AC 250520 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW UKI 55 NW RBL 30 NNE RBL 45 SSW TVL 30 ENE FAT 25 ENE EDW 25 NE LGB 20 E OXR 45 ENE MRY 55 NNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAKER PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN PATTERN ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL VALLEY OF CA... GRADUAL MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT DIABATIC HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 100-200 J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 12:35:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 07:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501251237.j0PCbZQv028489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251235 SWODY1 SPC AC 251233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S EKA 50 E ACV 30 NE RBL 35 SSW TVL 35 WSW BIH 55 ENE NID 30 W DAG 25 ENE PRB 25 WSW SJC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A WEAK...PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM LOOSELY ORGANIZED NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFF THE W CST. THE TROUGH CONTAINS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...PER STLT. DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR 38N/125W HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 24 HRS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHEAR NNE OFF ORE/NRN CA CST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRAILING RIBBON OF VORTICITY EXTENDING S FROM THE VORT WILL ENTER NW CA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...STLT LOOPS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR PORTION OF SYSTEM NOW NEAR 25N/125W WILL TRACK MAINLY ESE...LEAVING CA IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY WEAKER FLOW/ASCENT...MORE OR LESS AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ETA. ...CNTRL/NRN CA... GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES REGION. IN RESPONSE ...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CSTL RANGES N OF SFO AND ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN AND CNTRL SIERRA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT LOW LEVEL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK /CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC/ AND EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM /AROUND MINUS 15C/. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING VORT LOBE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPOTS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 16:15:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 11:15:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501251617.j0PGHa4D013758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251613 SWODY1 SPC AC 251611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THEY LIFT ENEWD ACROSS CA. MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THOUGH INCREASING UVV...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL. ..EVANS.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 19:42:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 14:42:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501251944.j0PJipKB015580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251943 SWODY1 SPC AC 251941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO FEATURE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD INTO ATLANTIC...AND RIDGE FROM NRN MEX ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES. WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- PRESENTLY EXITING RIDGE AS IT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS OK -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM PERTURBATION INDICATED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- ABOUT 350-400 NM W OF BAJA SPUR -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NRN BAJA AND SRN CA TONIGHT...AMIDST PREVAILING SWLY FLOW. AT SFC...CYCLONE INVOF LS -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN ONT/NERN MN -- WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD MID ATLANTIC REGION AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. ...SRN/CENTRAL CA COAST AND CENTRAL VALLEY... MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WEAKLY AS SRN STREAM TROUGH APCHS SRN CA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTION IN BANDS MOVING INLAND. STILL...EXPECT LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC...LIMITING BOTH DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY. NAM MODEL SBCAPES IN FAT-SAC AXIS ARE PREDICATED ON SFC TEMPS MID/UPPER 60S F...UNLIKELY OVER MUCH OF VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT DIAGNOSTIC TRENDS AND MODIFIED NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY/LIMIT SFC HEATING NEAR AXIS OF SAC VALLEY AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THOUGH AREAS CURRENTLY CLEARED OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL/SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CAN HEAT INTO LOW 60S F. WHILE SMALL POCKETS OF SBCAPE AND VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TOO WEAK FOR GEN TSTM RISK. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST... LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION AND ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...IN RESPONSE TO PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER OK. GULF AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY FROM VERY LOW-THETAE ORIGINS AS CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR MASS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SPEED OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND GREAT DEGREE OF MARINE ADJUSTMENT REMAINING BEFORE AIR MASS YIELDS DEEP ENOUGH CAPE PROFILE TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...GEN TSTM THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM FOR AN OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 26 01:02:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 20:02:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501260104.j0Q14RJD029348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MULI/S OF -1 TO -2 C AND MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 00Z NKX OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT BELOW 500-600 MB REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO THE N OVER THE SIERRAS NW OF TVL WHERE IT APPEARS THAT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED WEAKLY BUOYANT PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS...IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN MO INTO TN AND NRN MS/AL... 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C/KM/ AND SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO. DESPITE WEAKENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEEP OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST E/NE OF UPPER SYSTEM TRACK WHERE THESE LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. SHOULD ANY TSTMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA. ..MEAD.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 01:12:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 20:12:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501290115.j0T1Fli1005610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290051 SWODY1 SPC AC 290048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MRY 15 SSE SCK 50 ENE MER 55 ESE FAT 25 ESE BFL 30 N RAL 35 W TRM CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 35 SE ESF 25 N HEZ 40 NNW JAN 50 SE GWO SEM 65 SSW SEM 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ON TAIL END OF LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE SUPPORTING ONGOING NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEADING/NORTHERN EDGE OF MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...AND PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AWAY FROM SHORE...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN/EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATER THIS EVENING...WEAK WARMING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES. THUS...A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO PERSIST TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ...CALIFORNIA... MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOW SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND RISK FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE COOLING PROGRESSES...AND BAND OF MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. ..KERR.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 05:45:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 00:45:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501290548.j0T5mOnP015211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290546 SWODY1 SPC AC 290544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BVE MEI 10 S HSV RMG AGS GSB 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SGU BCE 4HV CNY 15 E DRO TAD DHT CVS 10 ESE 4CR ONM SAD 15 ESE GBN 15 NNW BLH 10 NNW EED SGU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ABI BWD TPL AUS SAT 35 WNW HDO 60 ENE P07 40 S MAF 15 E MAF 30 SSW ABI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTERACTING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES ARE MAINTAINING STRONG HIGH-LEVEL JET...ROUGHLY AROUND 30 N LATITUDE. THIS FEATURE HAS NOSED AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WAVES IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM ARE SUBTLE...WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST LEAD SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE MID SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...WHERE A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE TODAY...BEFORE SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...CORE OF HIGH LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ATOP BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES... DAMMING OF COLD AIR IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN EARLY TODAY... BUT MORE RAPID MODIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. DESPITE WEDGE OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT ABOVE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...AS FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE PRESENT TIME...AIR MASS MODIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES... LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC JET DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY IS SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS CLOSED LOW EVOLVES. MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...TEXAS... A GRADUAL MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE...BUT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MORE LIKELY BEYOND...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TOPPING UPPER RIDGE. ..KERR.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 12:59:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 07:59:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501291302.j0TD2ZiF001117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291300 SWODY1 SPC AC 291258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 ESE GPT 25 WSW 0A8 20 N ANB 15 WNW AHN 35 NW CAE 30 SSW GSB 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW SGU 20 W BCE 10 SW 4HV 30 SSE CNY 25 SSW GUC 20 W TAD 10 SW DHT 15 SSW PVW 25 SW ABI 30 ESE BWD 15 WSW TPL 15 S AUS 15 SW SAT 30 ESE DRT 55 NW DRT 30 SSW HOB 10 N ROW 25 SSW 4CR 25 N TCS 20 WSW SAD 40 W GBN 15 S TRM 30 S DAG 50 WSW SGU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE FROM SRN CA EWD TO THE SE STATES. WITHIN THIS SRN STREAM...TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. THE ERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE OZARKS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE WRN SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS AZ TO WRN NM LATE. ...AZ/NM TODAY TO W TX LATE TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED BAND OF ASCENT E THROUGH NE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NEAR YUMA HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS W/NW AZ. WEAK INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TODAY NEAR AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NM BY EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ TODAY. FARTHER E INTO TX...A WEAK SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO W CENTRAL TX. INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LLJ MAY RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL TX INTO ERN NM. ...SE STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM SRN AL NWD TO MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL KY...AND EWD ACROSS GA. INSTABILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN QUITE LIMITED AND THE ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND THE INSTABILITY SOURCE REGION OVER THE GULF. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS AL/GA PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM. ..THOMPSON.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 16:31:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 11:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501291634.j0TGY3Eo012266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291630 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 ESE GPT SEM ANB AHN 35 NNE CAE FAY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAS CDC 4HV MTJ TAD DHT LBB HOB 4CR SAD GBN TRM DAG LAS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE UNITED STATES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM IS OVER MO/AR. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY...WITH UVVS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY POSING A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AL/FL INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. WARM FRONT DELINEATING NORTHERN EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE LIES JUST OFF THE FL/AL COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STAY OFFSHORE TODAY...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. HOWEVER...SMALL SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING NEAR MOB/PNS. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH A POTENTIAL OF STRONGER CELLS BECOMING ELEVATED AND MOVING INLAND. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED HAIL. ...AZ... SECOND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTHERN NV. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN UT/NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. POCKET OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF HAIL IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ..HART.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 19:57:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 14:57:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501292000.j0TK0Gt8003776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291956 SWODY1 SPC AC 291954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 W PNS 30 WSW TOI LGC 25 WSW AHN 25 SE SPA 15 N FAY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ROW 20 N ALM 35 ENE SVC 35 S SAD 20 NNE TUS 20 S GBN 30 S BLH 40 NE TRM 55 ENE DAG 25 NNE LAS 20 WNW SGU 25 NNE BCE 30 S GJT 60 ENE GUC 35 ENE TAD 20 SSE CAO 50 WSW AMA 50 WSW LBB 25 N HOB 35 SE ROW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED-OFF LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAX PRESENT OVER SRN CA. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AZ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA AT 00Z SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND OF 8.0 C/KM WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -26 C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS GA SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE CONVECTION WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS A RELATIVELY STABLE AND COOL AIR MASS...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SC AND SRN NC OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 00:51:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 19:51:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501300054.j0U0sGgf018276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300052 SWODY1 SPC AC 300050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PFN 30 NE MAI 45 E MCN 20 SSW CAE 25 SW FAY 10 W HSE ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ALM 35 SE SAD 30 W GBN 15 NNE BLH 30 W EED 55 SW P38 50 NW MLF 40 WNW PUC 35 N GJT 45 ESE ASE PUB 20 SSE CAO 50 WSW AMA 50 WSW LBB HOB 45 ESE ALM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... 00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN AZ WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW FROM UT AND INTO AZ/NM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS LOW/INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PER 90+ KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST S OF U.S. BORDER...IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER SRN AZ INTO NM. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NELY SURFACE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NWRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE HAS MAINTAINED A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITING AN E-W SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF FROM MOVING INLAND. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA... AND THEN NEWD ALONG THE GA TO NC COASTS. HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY...JUST OFF THE SC COAST BY 06Z. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN TRACK NEWD TO ALONG THE NC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 05:50:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 00:50:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501300553.j0U5rI4x030494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300551 SWODY1 SPC AC 300549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VCT 35 WNW ALI 15 S LRD ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 40 ESE JCT 30 SSW TPL 55 N HOU 20 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 15 E GSB 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PGA 50 SE CNY 35 E ASE 20 NW PUB 15 NNE CAO 65 E AMA 35 SW CDS 30 NNW HOB 15 NNW SVC 45 E PHX 20 N PRC 20 WNW PGA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AND SWRN CANADA TODAY...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM ELONGATION OF LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM NRN BAJA TO THE GREAT LAKES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WITH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN STATES. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST...TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE EACH SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC/NC IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC AND ALONG A COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY SWD TO FAR ERN SC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA PER 30 KT SLY LLJ OVER ERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION TO WEST TX... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THIS AREA AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE TROUGH SHEARS EWD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WWD OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WEAK SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SRN AND SERN TX... SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM DEEP S TX EWD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD NOT MOVE TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OVER THIS REGION BENEATH FLAT UPPER RIDGE. NELY SURFACE FLOW NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE...MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INITIALLY ORIENTED OVER WRN TX WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTION ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN TX. THIS CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHTNING STRIKES. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AS SUGGESTED BY ETA/ETAKF AND SREF MODELS. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 12:46:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 07:46:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501301249.j0UCn7SV004840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301247 SWODY1 SPC AC 301245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 60 ENE JCT 35 NE ACT 25 S GGG 20 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ILM 25 NNW EWN 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PGA 30 ENE 4BL 45 WNW ALS 25 WNW TAD 15 SSW CAO 65 E AMA 40 SW CDS 40 SSE CVS 30 ESE ONM 15 SSE SOW 25 WNW INW 35 E PGA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM AREA TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SW IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS - ONE DIGGING SLOWLY SSWWD OVER NRN BAJA AND ANOTHER EJECTING EWD FROM NM TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE NM TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT WHILE MOVING EWD INTO A WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME N/NW OF THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS NM. ...S CENTRAL AND SE TX AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A WAA REGIME IS DEVELOPING OVER S/SE TX THIS MORNING TO THE N OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NWD CLOSER TO THE TX COAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT ACROSS DEEP S TX. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED S OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL INVERSION IN THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING...AND LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...ERN NC AREA THIS MORNING... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INVOF ERN NC...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-LATE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS ERN NC...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDING BEFORE MIDDAY. ..THOMPSON.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 16:31:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 11:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501301633.j0UGXxIY022522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301631 SWODY1 SPC AC 301629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT JCT ACT 10 NNW GGG 30 WNW POE 15 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW 4BL CEZ 40 N ALS TAD CAO TCC ONM 60 ESE SOW INW 65 SSW 4BL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS MORNING...WITH POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER AZ/NM. DAYTIME HEATING MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ...TX... INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ..HART.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 19:33:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 14:33:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501301935.j0UJZsNP001703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301933 SWODY1 SPC AC 301932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 20 SE JCT 25 S SEP 20 S DAL 20 N TYR 35 SE GGG 35 WNW POE 15 SSE BPT ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 40 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL TX. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY AID THE INITIATION OF A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE JET GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO EAST TX LATE TONIGHT. ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NWD AWAY FROM THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TX...QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NOT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 31 00:52:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 19:52:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501310055.j0V0t3HP010549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310052 SWODY1 SPC AC 310050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 40 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 WSW COT 45 SE JCT 15 WSW FTW 40 SW DUA 20 ESE PRX 50 ESE SHV 15 E POE 35 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX TO WRN LA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NM WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHEARS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WAA REMAINING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM DEEP S TX NEWD INTO THE NWRN AND NRN GULF...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MFE TO AUS TO PRX TO SERN OK. DESPITE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM DEEP S TX NNEWD TO ERN OK PER LATE AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY...EMBEDDED TSTMS WERE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA WHERE THE 35 KT SLY LLJ INTERSECTED AN E-W ORIENTED 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT OVER NRN TX. THIS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE SSEWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LLJ VEERING TO SWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ENEWD. THUS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP SSEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND WRN LA WITHIN STRONGEST WAA. ...WEST CENTRAL TX... A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED AFTER 23Z NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER. THESE STORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE UVVS WERE MAXIMIZED AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY LOW WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUING TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING AND DECREASING WAA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AFTER 02Z. GIVEN THE SMALL COVERAGE AREA AND SHORT DURATION OF A SEVERE AND GENERAL TSTM THREAT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ADDED FOR THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 01/31/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 00:54:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 19:54:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501010056.j010uX30002698@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010054 SWODY1 SPC AC 010053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN CA AND WRN ORE... THE WRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ORE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE INLAND ACROSS ORE. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. STRONG FORCING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE NEAR THE US BORDER. ...SABINE RIVER VALLEY... LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CROSSES THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F...A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORM COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 06:08:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 01:08:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501010610.j016An1Q029476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010608 SWODY1 SPC AC 010605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SLN 20 SW LNK 10 SSW SPW 30 N RST 20 NNW GRB MBL 25 NE GRR 15 NE AZO 20 N LAF 25 NE SLO 20 SE TBN 15 ENE JLN 35 SSW CNU 50 E ICT 25 E SLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 ESE AST EUG 40 E CEC 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BPT 25 ENE LFK 30 WNW TXK 25 SE FSM 40 SSE HRO 60 WSW ARG 55 W MEM 25 S JAN 10 SSE BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AS A RESULT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX AND LA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS LA AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX COASTAL BEND...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS LA AND FAR EAST TX. THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD EXPAND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...EVENTUALLY REACHING AR AND WRN MS BY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS...ERN NEB AND MO...A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW SFC DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 50S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY NEAR A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM FAR SE NEB EWD ACROSS NRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z NEAR MKC SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINE EXPANDING ENEWD EVENTUALLY REACHING NE MO AND NRN IL LATE TONIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW COAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SEWD TODAY APPROACHING THE ORE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL RESULT IN A THUNDER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ORE COAST EXTENDING OFFSHORE UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. ..BROYLES.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 12:54:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 07:54:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501011256.j01CuWkk017941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011254 SWODY1 SPC AC 011252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BPT 25 ENE LFK 30 WNW TXK 25 SE FSM 40 SSE HRO 60 WSW ARG 55 W MEM 25 S JAN 10 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RSL 40 WNW BIE 30 S SPW 15 NNW RST 15 N VOK 25 WSW OSH 30 NW MKE 30 NW CGX 10 N MMO 15 NE PIA 30 ESE SZL 20 WNW TUL 20 NNW END 35 NNW P28 20 ENE RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX 30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN KS/NWRN MO/S CENTRAL IA... ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE WEST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS NEWD INTO CENTRAL IL SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN ERN CO AND SHIFTS INTO NWRN MO THIS EVENING. A 45-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET... CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON AND AID IN TRANSPORTING A MORE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND/HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN WV/IR IMAGERY LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN TX/WRN LA. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EL TEMPERATURES WERE FROM 0C TO -10C AND THIS HAS INHIBITED THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 3-6 DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE TOPS TO GROW SUFFICIENTLY TALL TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. ...NW PACIFIC COAST... AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE ONTO THE ORE COAST THIS EVENING. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -30C TO -32C WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE WHERE WARMER OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN ACROSS THE COLDER INLAND AREAS. ..IMY.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 16:28:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 11:28:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501011630.j01GUTmj015805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011627 SWODY1 SPC AC 011626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX 30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RSL 40 WNW BIE 30 S SPW 15 NNW RST 15 N VOK 25 WSW OSH 30 NW MKE 30 NW CGX 10 N MMO 15 NE PIA 30 ESE SZL 20 WNW TUL 20 NNW END 35 NNW P28 20 ENE RSL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... 12Z ETA/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RUNS REGARDING STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND THUS FEW IF ANY CHANGES ARE NEEDED FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE FORECAST. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF I-70 ACROSS CENTRAL MO...EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER NERN CO/NWRN KS. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE LOW CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS SWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AS STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD...PRESSURE FALLS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB BY THE EARLY EVENING. WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60F EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN KS. IN ADDITION...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY STRONG AS SSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SUCH SHEAR OVERSPREADING A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST BY BOTH THE ETAKF AND RUC TO REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL 5% THREAT AREAS FOR WIND AND HAIL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STORMS FORM NEAR THE COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 20Z-02Z. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED TO PRODUCE ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF IA/NRN MO. ..EVANS.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 1 19:50:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 14:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501011952.j01Jqwsh016564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011943 SWODY1 SPC AC 011941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 20 N PDX 30 SSE EUG 35 SW MFR 45 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW BJI 10 ESE CMX 15 ENE PLN 25 ENE HTL 15 NW LAN 40 ENE LAF 45 SSE MTO 45 SW STL 10 WNW SGF 40 SSE CNU 30 NNW PNC 20 NNE HUT 30 W LNK 25 W FSD 30 N ATY 55 SSW BJI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SEEMS TO HAVE BROKEN INTO TWO FEATURES. NRN-MOST IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SD AND NRN NEB WITH A BRANCH OF THE SLY LLJ IMPINGING UPON THE E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN NEB. RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING IN THE MID-MO VLY NWD INTO ERN SD. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PARCELS NEAR H7 HAD 100-300 J/KG CAPE AND GIVEN INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...PARCELS ARE BEING LOFTED TO ALTITUDES WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN MINUS 20C. THE RESULT HAS BEEN FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF KFSD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW 0C. AS THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVES EWD...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN AND TOWARD MI AREA LATER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE OVER ERN CO AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. THOUGH HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND BRANCH OF THE LLJ WAS BLOWING INTO THE SLOWLY RETREATING POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO AND WRN IL...GIVING RISE TO ELEVATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOW...CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS FRONT ACROSS ERN KS AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER FROM H8-H7 AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY MITIGATE SURFACE BASED TSTMS AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. OTHERWISE...SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER TSTMS FARTHER NE ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA AND INTO WCNTRL IL. ...PAC NW COAST... LOW-MIDLEVEL ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE/ISOLD LIGHTNING THREAT ALONG THE ORE/WA/NRN CA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS SWRN ORE/NRN CA COASTS TOWARD MORNING AS UPSTREAM VORT MAX DIGS SEWD TOWARD THESE AREAS. ..RACY.. 01/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 00:34:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 19:34:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501020036.j020aClc008524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020033 SWODY1 SPC AC 020032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW EMP 20 ESE SLN 30 NE CNK 25 WSW OTG 35 NNW RWF 30 NW STC 35 ESE DLH 15 ENE IWD 10 SSW MQT 45 NNW TVC 40 SW HTL 40 NNE FWA 25 WNW MIE 25 SW MTO 40 ESE SZL 20 WSW EMP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MIDWEST... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SERN NEB WITH A WARM FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS NRN MO AND SCNTRL IA. CONVECTION IS ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS IA AND MN...DEVELOPING PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER IA AND MN. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ALSO HELPED INITIATE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER NRN MO WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND WRN IL. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN IL WHERE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING SWWD INTO ERN NEB AND POSSIBLY NE KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. THE 00Z OMAHA AND TOPEKA SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND FALLING SFC TEMPS SHOULD FARTHER REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE SPREADING EWD ACROSS NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 05:48:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 00:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501020550.j025oZEo014288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020548 SWODY1 SPC AC 020546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW JHW 20 N YNG 50 SE DAY 30 SSE OWB 45 SSW PBF 40 S SHV 40 NW BPT 30 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4BK 25 E CEC 30 NE ACV 35 SSE EKA 15 S UKI 15 E SFO 35 SE MRY 20 SSE PRB 25 ESE SMX 25 NNE OXR 15 SSW RAL 20 WSW CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 20 SSE COT 50 NNE DRT 55 S BGS 50 NNE BGS 30 NNE CDS 40 ESE GAG 25 SE ICT 35 ENE SZL 20 E SPI 30 NNW FWA 25 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 45 N TUS 45 S SOW 70 SSW GNT 15 NNW ONM 40 SSW 4CR 15 E ALM 35 SSE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/OH VALLEY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM IND/IL EXTENDING SWWD INTO MO AND NW OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM WCNTRL TX EXTENDING NWD INTO WCNTRL OK. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN ERN OK AND ERN TX. CONCERNING INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING NWD INTO SW OK. AT UPPER-LEVELS...STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT WITH AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET PROVIDING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS REGION. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z MONDAY IN NW TX AND SW 0K SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. IF THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BEST SFC INSTABILITY. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS TRACK NEWD ACROSS WCNTRL OK ENCOUNTERING A COLD FRONT. ANY HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE NWD INTO THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ...CA COAST... AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE VERY COLD...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWS CENTER DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG ASCENT. A FEW STORMS COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BECAUSE MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO JUST THE COASTAL AREAS. ...SE AZ/SW NM... SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS SFC TEMPS WARM. A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ AND SW NM. HOWEVER...THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS TEMPS COOL OFF IN THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 12:29:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 07:29:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501021231.j02CVeoB029408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021229 SWODY1 SPC AC 021227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE FHU 65 ESE SOW 40 NNW 4CR 45 NE ALM 40 ESE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 10 SW AUS JCT P07 INK 10 NE HOB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NW CGX 20 W GRR FNT 10 WNW ERI PIT LUK UOX MLU POE 35 ESE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OTH 45 W MHS UKI 35 SE MRY 25 ESE SMX 15 SSW RAL 20 WSW CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IN BASE OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH...OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A COUPLE OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...THE OTHER ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR BOTH FEATURES TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER... INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. CIRCULATION AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HAS ALREADY MOISTENED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHERE 50S/60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST/INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR ON WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE LAPSE RATES AND CAPE. THIS WILL LIMIT RISK FOR VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST. ...WRN GULF COAST/SRN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE /ROUGHLY AROUND 925 MB/ WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FORCING OF INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS TO LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THIS REGION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ITSELF COULD ALSO BECOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND TENDENCY FOR RELATIVELY WARM AND DEEPENING MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...AHEAD OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEAR REMOTE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING LIFTING ACROSS THIS REGION TOWARD 03/00Z... INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF UPDRAFTS COULD BECOME FAIRLY VIGOROUS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT SEEM TOO FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 16:37:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 11:37:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501021639.j02Gd54u006534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021636 SWODY1 SPC AC 021634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW UKI UKI 35 SE MRY 25 E SMX 20 NNW RAL 20 WNW CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 35 ENE SAT JCT 60 E FST 35 WNW MAF 50 W LBB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NNE DEC 20 NNE BMG 20 S OWB 30 WSW ELD 35 NE LFK 35 ESE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS FOR EARLY JANUARY REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF SLOWING ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION...THOUGH NRN END WILL CONTINUE EWD BEFORE SLOWING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TOO WARM/STEEP TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION GIVEN THE LIMITED HEATING ANTICIPATED NEAR THE FRONT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH / NOW MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO / WILL INCREASE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CA COAST... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE ORE COAST WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SSWWD TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ..EVANS.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 2 19:49:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 14:49:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501021951.j02JpqVA005931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021949 SWODY1 SPC AC 021947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 35 ENE SAT JCT 60 E FST 35 WNW MAF 50 W LBB AMA ICT 55 SW IRK 20 NNE DEC 20 NNE BMG 20 S OWB 30 WSW ELD 35 NE LFK 35 ESE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW UKI UKI 35 SE MRY 25 E SMX 20 NNW RAL 20 WNW CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SERN OK EARLIER TODAY APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MOVED NEWD INTO THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT GLANCES OFF STRONG GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND TSTMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT. ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD WRN TX ATTM. PROFILERS ALREADY SHOW A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL FROM TX PNHDL THROUGH CNTRL OK TO THE LOWER OH VLY THIS EVENING. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS CAPPED AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS REACHING LFC ARE LOW. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ OVERNIGHT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD DOME NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER GIVEN THE WARM COLUMN AND SHOULD NOT PROMOTE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA COASTAL AREAS... MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THE W COAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN...PARTICULARLY TOWARD MORNING AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL STAY OFFSHORE. ..RACY.. 01/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 00:46:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 19:46:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501030048.j030mINY014077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030046 SWODY1 SPC AC 030044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 40 S SAT 30 SW JCT 40 SSE MAF 40 NW MAF 45 W LBB 15 SSW AMA 10 ENE ICT 30 SSE IRK 45 NNW DNV 15 NNE FWA 20 WSW FDY 40 S FDY 30 ENE DAY 20 NE LUK 30 SW SDF 30 ESE PBF 25 SE LFK 25 ENE HOU 25 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S UKI 20 NW SFO 20 NNE MRY 15 SSE PRB 20 N OXR 10 N LGB 25 SE LGB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS/OH VALLEY... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX ENEWD ACROSS OK...MO...IL AND IND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN MO AND IL IN RESPONSE TO THE EXIT REGION OF A 30KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING NWD ACROSS THE OZARKS. IN ADDITION...THE ACTIVITY MAY BE EXPANDING DUE TO INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS AND NW AR. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE CONVECTION GETS INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO OK THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...CA COAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF CA. A FEW STORMS MAY AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH LESS OF A THUNDER THREAT OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 05:42:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 00:42:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501030544.j035imZO024426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030542 SWODY1 SPC AC 030540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST SUN JAN 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PRB 30 SW NID 20 WNW IGM 10 NW FLG 40 E SOW 40 W TCS 40 SE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 S HOB 25 N CVS 10 WNW LBL 25 S SLN 15 W CMI 25 SW IND 30 SE BMG 35 WSW SDF 45 WSW MEM GGG 40 S CLL 40 SW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND OH VALLEY... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE FROM NW TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS OK...SRN MO INTO SRN IL AND SRN IND. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM TX NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF STRONG LIFT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE VORTICITY MAX. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG ELEVATED STORMS WOULD BE AS THIS FEATURE COMES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06Z ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN OK AND NW TX. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NNEWD QUICKLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. ANY MARGINAL THREAT WOULD DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COOLER AIR ACROSS NRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ...CA/AZ... AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN TODAY WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW. A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH EACH PASSAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE PUNCHING INTO AZ AROUND 06Z WITH LAPSE RATES STEEPENING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WOULD APPEAR THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS POSSIBLY INITIATING ACROSS SRN AZ AND SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL AZ AND SW NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 13:00:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 08:00:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501031302.j03D2dh4008421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031259 SWODY1 SPC AC 031257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW SFO NID GCN ABQ CAO RSL STJ BMI 10 E FWA 20 NNE FKL LBE CRW 40 SSW LOZ UOX 35 NNE MLU 30 S SHV 50 SW LFK 45 NNW NIR 40 WNW COT DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PHASING OF IMPULSES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST. STRONG DIGGING JET IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ASSOCIATED COLD CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL BOTTOM OUT IN BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SEEM A BIT SLOWER WITH EASTWARD/INLAND PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN PLATEAU. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO DOWNSTREAM LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH NEXT IN SERIES OF SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME...BETWEEN EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES IS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS SYSTEM WEAKENS...MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD NEAR STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. NEXT INFLUX OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... MODELS INDICATE TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF INTRUSION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR...WILL GENERALLY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS NEXT SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN PRIOR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM...AS UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW BOTTOMS OUT AND BEGINS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STATES. STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 04/00Z...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST...STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE SURFACE-BASED SOUTH OF FRONT...FROM EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT IN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET WILL NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG COOLING ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL HAIL IN MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS NEAR SAN DIEGO...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES COULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. ..KERR.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 16:38:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 11:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501031640.j03GeSZp021987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031635 SWODY1 SPC AC 031634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ELP 20 E ALM 45 WNW CVS 45 N AMA 40 ESE P28 35 NE JLN 15 NW CGI 10 N MKL 35 NW GLH 45 W TYR 40 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MRY 35 NNE OXR 25 N RAL 30 SSW LAS 20 WSW GCN 15 E SOW 50 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... STRONGEST WLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLES SLOWLY SSEWD TOWARDS THE SRN CA COAST. HOWEVER...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN WITHIN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST...INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF MAIN TROUGH. ONE SUCH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. SWLY LLJ EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER NERN TX/AR...CURRENTLY SUPPORTING AN AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONCENTRATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE WEST TX PLAINS ENEWD INTO NRN TX/OK...AS ASSOCIATED SLY LLJ INCREASES ACROSS TX. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS ORIGINATING WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL NOT DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR VIGOROUS MOIST CONVECTION DESPITE THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALL READY IN PLACE. ..EVANS.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 3 19:41:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 14:41:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501031943.j03JhH4e031031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031941 SWODY1 SPC AC 031939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MRY 35 NNE OXR 25 N RAL 30 SSW LAS 20 WSW GCN 15 E SOW 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S ELP 20 E ALM 45 WNW CVS 45 N AMA 40 ESE P28 35 NE JLN 15 NW CGI 10 N MKL 35 NW GLH 45 W TYR 40 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN CA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRIMARY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ABOUT 200-300 WEST OF LAX/SAN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-28 TO -30C AT 500MB/ SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...TX/OK... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTH TX INTO AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO AREA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ONLY MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. OTHER MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TX AND WESTERN OK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. ..HART.. 01/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 00:51:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 19:51:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501040053.j040riUv026315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040051 SWODY1 SPC AC 040049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 10 ENE EDW 45 SW LAS 40 SW GCN 35 SE INW 25 NE SAD 50 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 15 E ALM 65 W CVS 45 E DHT 30 SE P28 40 NW SGF 20 WNW CGI 20 SSW PAH 15 N MKL 25 N GLH 20 ENE SHV 20 SE ACT 45 NW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM SRN MO THROUGH AR INTO NORTH TX. THE FRONT THEN EXTENDS NWWD INTO WEST TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NE TX INTO ERN AR. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY...LIKELY WEAKENING NEAR THE MS RIVER OR IN WRN TN. LATER TONIGHT...THE ETA/GFS MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS TX AND OK. THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY FROM WEST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN OK. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SERN NM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP THE CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY EXPAND AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO THE COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS NEAR THE SFC MAY ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN NW TX AND SWRN OK. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ...CA/AZ... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST SW OF SAN FRANCISCO. 23Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SRN CA COAST AND CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SMALL HAIL CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH VALUES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM BY MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FOR SAN DIEGO SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY...0-1 KM SHEAR BELOW 10 KT AND BACKING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE STORMS MOVE INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 05:38:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 00:38:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501040540.j045eE25018359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040538 SWODY1 SPC AC 040536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST MON JAN 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 55 NE DAG 55 NNE LAS 10 N MLF 35 W PUC 45 NNW GJT 55 E GUC 45 N GCK 50 NNE SZL 30 ESE MIE 25 ESE DAY 55 E LUK 45 ENE LEX 50 SW BNA 25 ENE ELD 65 SW TYR 55 S BWD 45 NNE P07 50 WNW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS AND OH VALLEY... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS AR AND NORTH TX EXTENDING WWD INTO WEST TX. THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES OUT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWRN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND ACCELERATE EWD AS A STRONG 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER WEST TEXAS HELPING TO INITIATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE TX PANHANDLE IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 03Z IN THE TX PANHANDLE SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MATERIALIZES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...NORTH TX AND OK BY THE EVENING HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A BROAD 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS CAUSING THE FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING NWD. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING THE COLD DENSE AIR TOO FAR BACK TO THE NORTH WHICH MEANS THE INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. IF THIS IS THE CASE...SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE WOULD BE MINIMAL. HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN...A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY VERIFIES. IN THAT CASE...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD PROBABLY BECOME NECESSARY. IN ANY CASE...AN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND TRACK EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OK AND FAR NORTH TX. ...SWRN STATES... THE UPPER-LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SFC HEATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 12:45:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 07:45:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501041247.j04ClLjQ010877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041245 SWODY1 SPC AC 041244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CDS PVW 10 SSW AMA 45 WNW OKC 40 ESE OKC ADM 15 ESE SPS 60 S CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 55 NE DAG 55 NNE LAS CDC 4HV MTJ 35 SW PUB 45 N GCK 50 NNE SZL MIE 20 NE LUK LEX 10 ESE BNA 10 SSW MEM 15 SSW PBF 50 W TYR 10 SSE BWD 45 NNE P07 50 WNW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NW TX AND SWRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE SRN CA COAST IS MOVING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS BAND OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO SRN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE EWD TODAY ACROSS CA AND SRN NV...OPENING TONIGHT INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN BEFORE REACHING THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SERN MO/NWRN AR SWWD INTO NRN TX/SERN NM MAY BEGIN TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SWRN UPPER SYSTEM...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITHIN EXISTING COLD AIR MASS SUGGEST MODELS ARE MOVING FRONT TOO FAR NWD. ...NW TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK... FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND SREF CONTROL RUN OF THE ETAKF INDICATE MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE LAYER AS SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER TX AND OK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONG SLY FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AND MODEST STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF NW TX INTO SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL OK. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OK INTO NRN AR/SRN MO. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD TODAY...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLATEAU ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN TX ACROSS OK THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING /ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT/ AS STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. THREAT FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING STARTING OVER PARTS OF NW TX...SPREADING EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ELEVATED CAPE INDICATES PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..WEISS.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 16:33:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 11:33:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501041635.j04GZfnx027671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 40 NNW TRM 20 NW LAS CDC 40 SSW GUC 15 NNW TAD 20 SSE EHA 40 W HUT 50 NNE SZL 35 SSE SPI 25 N EVV 35 SSW OWB 40 ENE MKL 10 SSW MEM 15 SSW PBF 30 SSE DAL 45 WNW SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... INTENSE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE WEST TX PLAINS...AND WILL ENHANCE FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AS STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER WRN AND NWRN TX WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD ENEWD INTO OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BECOME TOO VIGOROUS GIVEN SATURATED MID LEVELS AND RESULTANT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. ...SWRN STATES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH POCKET OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELDS REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ..EVANS.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 4 19:56:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 14:56:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501041958.j04JwHiT004881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041955 SWODY1 SPC AC 041954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LAX 40 NNW TRM 20 NW LAS 10 SE CDC 40 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 55 ESE GUC 45 NNW CAO 30 SW LBL 35 SSE DDC 15 W STJ 15 ESE IRK 15 W MTO 45 SW BMG 35 WSW OWB 30 SSE CGI 20 NNW ARG 35 N HOT 30 SSE FTW 45 WNW SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN TX/SWRN OK... WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED SLIGHTLY ACROSS NWRN TX BUT SHOULD ADVANCE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM...A NWD SURGE INTO SERN OK AND MUCH OF AR WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER ACROSS THIS REGION AS LLJ INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO KS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NWRN OK/SRN KS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO MO AND SRN IL AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD POSE LITTLE THREAT OF HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. IN THE NEAR TERM...ONE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE LACK OF DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE AND DOWNSTREAM FOCUS OF LLJ INTO THE MS VALLEY. LATER TONIGHT ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY ENHANCE ORGANIZED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 00:50:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 19:50:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501050052.j050qdLr014859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 40 NNW TRM 20 NW LAS 10 SE CDC 40 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 55 ESE GUC 45 NNW CAO 30 SW LBL 35 SSE DDC 15 W STJ 15 ESE IRK 15 W MTO 45 SW BMG 35 WSW OWB 30 SSE CGI 20 NNW ARG 35 N HOT 30 SSE FTW 50 N SJT 15 N INK 50 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT SERN OK-NCNTRL TX-JUST NORTH OF KMAF. 00Z KMAF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS CAPPED WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EWD. PER 00Z KMAF SOUNDING AND FORECAST RUC PROFILES...PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 5KFT EXHIBIT CAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG. GIVEN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 70-80 KTS...ISOLD ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OK AND NWRN TX OVERNIGHT AS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ..RACY.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 04:58:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 23:58:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501050500.j0550Pf4003365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050458 SWODY1 SPC AC 050456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GGG 45 WNW TPL 30 NW JCT 25 WNW SJT 55 E LBB 35 ESE LBL 50 SSW RSL 30 N MHK 20 WNW DSM 20 NNW DBQ 50 SW MBL 30 S HTL 15 ESE FNT 25 WNW CLE 40 WSW LUK 35 SW OWB 35 SW MKL 30 W GLH 25 SSE SHV 25 S GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT H5 JET WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT. AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ERN OK EARLY WED TO LOWER OH VLY WED EVENING TO SWRN OH EARLY THU. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z/THU. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN TX/OK NEWD INTO THE OZARKS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING INTO THE OH VLY BY WED NIGHT. STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID MS VLY WWD...AND THUS TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD EWD INTO THE OH VLY WITH TIME. GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR...PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SERN TX NEWD TO THE MID MS VLY APPEAR LOW. MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS SHOULD BE CONFINED ATOP THE COLD AIR...NEAR/ NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. ...ERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... THERE WILL BE A SEPARATE CONCENTRATED TSTM THREAT ALONG/NORTH OF DEEPENING H7 LOW FROM SCNTRL KS EARLY WED...ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO WED AFTERNOON AND INTO NRN IL/SERN WI/SRN MI WED NIGHT WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE 100-150 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED NEAR 650 MB AND CLOUD TOPS AOB MINUS 20C. GIVEN THE STRONG LARGE SCALE H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 180 METERS/12 HRS...SPORADIC LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN. ..RACY.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 12:53:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 07:53:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501051255.j05Ct4up020195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051253 SWODY1 SPC AC 051251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S GGG 35 SE SEP 30 ENE ABI 10 NE LTS END 10 SE EMP LWD CID DBQ 50 SW MBL GRR 30 NW FWA 15 SSE IND 35 SW OWB 35 SW MKL 30 W GLH 25 SSE SHV 25 S GGG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OK/NRN TX ACROSS MIDDLE MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EVENING...REACHING THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN AR/SRN MO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OH VALLEY...WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN/WRN TX WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX ACROSS OK AND SRN MO HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM OK ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND IL TOWARD WRN IN THIS EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER MO AND IL. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX AND AR. ..WEISS.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 16:36:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 11:36:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501051638.j05GcZF7000358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051627 SWODY1 SPC AC 051626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ELD 15 E GGG 40 NNW ACT 25 WNW MWL 35 WNW ADM 20 WSW MKO 30 W HRO 30 WSW JBR 45 W MEM 25 E ELD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEY... APPEARS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESSENING THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS REMAINS SATURATED WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ABOVE H85 SUGGESTS ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF ERN OK/NRN TX INTO AR. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL POSSIBLE...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CONVECTION FROM ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA TODAY...AND EVEN ALONG NOSE OF LLJ INTO IL/IND/WRN OH LATER TONIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SUCH A LARGE GENERAL THUNDER FORECAST. ..EVANS.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 5 19:34:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 14:34:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501051935.j05JZtbo002803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051933 SWODY1 SPC AC 051932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ELD GGG 40 WNW TYR 30 NNW DAL 25 N DUA 20 W FSM 35 ESE HRO 30 WSW JBR 45 W MEM 15 ESE ELD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ARKLATEX... FRONTAL SURGE CONTINUES ACROSS TX AND AR AS POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT REGION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT WHERE FRONTAL ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL ENCOURAGE ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FROM EXTREME NERN TX INTO SERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO PORTIONS OF AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN SPARSE-ISOLATED AND THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS GENERALLY WEAK. ..DARROW.. 01/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 00:51:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 19:51:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501060053.j060r076003183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060050 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEAMPLIFYING/ACCELERATING AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER LOWER OH VALLEY -- WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS OH...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER WRN/MID TN...REMAINDER AR...MUCH OF LA...AND OFFSHORE MOST OF TX COAST. EXPECT FRONT TO DECELERATE OVER TX GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. BAND OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT...MORE POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SWWD EXTENT. ALTHOUGH 50-250 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE WAS EVIDENT IN 00Z SHV/LZK RAOBS...EXPECT ASCENT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM AREA. THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OVERALL TSTM THREAT HAS BECOME QUITE ISOLATED AND PROBABILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 05:47:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 00:47:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501060549.j065nQk3009550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060547 SWODY1 SPC AC 060545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST WED JAN 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLH MLU VCT NIR HDO ACT LIT 55 ENE PBF GLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD FETCH OF SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEX NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC...PARALLEL TO DECELERATING SFC FRONT OVER EXTREME NWRN GULF. EXPECT SFC FRONT TO REMAIN OFFSHORE MID/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH IT MAY RETREAT NWD ENOUGH TO APCH GLS-BPT CORRIDOR AROUND 07/12Z. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES AND ERN ORE -- IS FCST TO PHASE WITH CURRENTLY SEPARATE AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW WELL OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA. THOUGH NOT DIRECTLY IMPINGING ON AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER TX/AR/LA...THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME TO ITS SE. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SERN AR... TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE WITH TIME AFTER 07/00Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVER FRONTAL ZONE...WITH INCREASINGLY SATURATED PARCELS REACHING LFC. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF 40-50 KT LLJ OVERNIGHT...FROM DEEP S TX AND ADJACENT GULF NEWD ACROSS NRN LA. MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 50-300 J/KG RANGE DEVELOPING BY END OF PERIOD ALONG AND LEFTWARD OF LLJ AXIS...WITH CAPE EXTENDING THROUGH FAVORABLE LAYERS FOR STORM ELECTRIFICATION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. ..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 12:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 07:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501061231.j06CVErN025824@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061228 SWODY1 SPC AC 061227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MEM 45 W CBM 20 NNW JAN POE VCT NIR HDO ACT LIT MEM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY CONTINUES ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. WRN PART OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NWRN GULF BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NWWD TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. ...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL SURFACE LAYER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER SRN/ERN TX/NRN LA...TRANSPORTING AN ELEVATED MOIST LAYER FROM ERN TX ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR INTO NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY UP TO 250 J/KG ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 297K THETA SURFACE COUPLED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS THROUGH OH VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA/SRN AR AND POSSIBLY NRN MS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..WEISS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 16:08:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 11:08:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501061610.j06GALTr025160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061556 SWODY1 SPC AC 061554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR... RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD ERN TX TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH RESPONDING INCREASE IN SLY LLJ ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WAA LATE TONIGHT WELL NORTH OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. APPEARS ISENTROPIC LIFTING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PARCELS TO BECOME WEAKLY BUOYANT AFTER 06Z AND RESULT IN INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS AMOUNT/DEPTH OF RESULTANT CAPE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 6 19:52:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 14:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501061954.j06JsXfY027436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061951 SWODY1 SPC AC 061949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GULF COAST... LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARY ABOUT 60MI EAST OF BRO. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST...BUT LIKELY REMAIN ILL-DEFINED BEFORE REFORMING WELL INLAND OVER NRN MS LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ENSURE LAYERED CLOUDINESS/DEEP MOIST PROFILES...ALTHOUGH LACKING IN APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING/INSTABILITY IT APPEARS ANY APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AIRMASS CAN RECOVER AND BECOME MORE BUOYANT. ..DARROW.. 01/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 00:48:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 19:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501070050.j070oZ9u010496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070047 SWODY1 SPC AC 070045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FCST ACROSS CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PHASING FROM BLACK HILLS REGION SWWD ACROSS UT...AND COMBINED FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TO ITS SE...LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE...N OF FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE TX COAST. LAST VIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO INDICATE SHARPENING DEFINITION TO FRONTAL WAVE LOCATED 85-90 SE CRP AND DRIFTING NWD. PRIND SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE...COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN PACIFIC...WITH CLOSEST CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM W SFO. ...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN... INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ISENTROPICALLY OVER RELATIVELY STABLE FRONTAL/BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN BAND OF SHOWERS NOW OVER E TX EXPANDING/MOVING ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD NRN MS. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THAT PRECIP BAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATED LACK OF ELEVATED CAPE...TSTM PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW ATTM TO REINSTATE CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA. ...COASTAL SRN CA... MOISTURE CHANNEL AND IR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED SPORADIC COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION FOR PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE AND SERN SEMICIRCLE OF OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS INCLUDES SOME CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT INVOF 32N125W AND MOVING EWD. AS ASSOCIATED ZONE OF DPVA AND MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION APCH SRN CA LATE TONIGHT... ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER MAY OCCUR INVOF COAST OR CHANNEL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT GEN TSTM OUTLOOK OVER LAND. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 05:16:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 00:16:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501070518.j075IT06002261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070516 SWODY1 SPC AC 070514 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CST THU JAN 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E PSX HOU GGG TXK LIT MKL BNA CSV CHA GAD MEI 50 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 20 N OXR RAL 40 SSE RAL 30 WSW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THIS PERIOD...FEATURING TWO PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. FIRST -- NOW ANALYZED FROM DAKOTAS SWWD ACROSS UT...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...REACHING MS VALLEY AROUND 08/06Z THEN ACCELERATING/DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD GREAT LAKES. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM FL PANHANDLE WSWWD ACROSS NWRN GULF -- WILL REMAIN WELL SE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY SEPARATELY FROM WAVE NOW OFFSHORE LOWER/MID TX COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRONOUNCED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM...WITH CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED NEAR 36N130W. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO DEAMPLIFY AFTER MOVING INLAND AROUND 07/18Z...THOUGH IT MAY MAKE LANDFALL STRONGER THAN PROGGED BASED ON WELL-FORMED SPIRAL SIGNATURE IN IR IMAGERY AND POSSIBILITY OF PRESSURES AS LOW AS AROUND 980 MB...BASED ON UNCORROBORATED SHIP REPORT FROM 07/00Z. MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK/TIMING...AND WITH LEAVING COLDEST/MOST UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL AIR FARTHER N AND W OVER PACIFIC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SWD OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD TURN BACK NWD OR NNEWD AGAIN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT BRUSHING COASTAL PACIFIC NW. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG MUCH OF PACIFIC COAST...SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. ...WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO PORTIONS TN VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF CLOUDS/PRECIP THAT SHOULD SHIFT/EXPAND EWD FROM E TX ACROSS MS DELTA REGION AND PORTIONS TN/MS/AL. LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING BUOYANCY ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONT OVER WRN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...NEWD TOWARD NRN AL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE TO NEAR 600 J/KG BEHIND FRONT AND SIMILAR DIURNAL MLCAPE VALUES IN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. ...SRN/CENTRAL CA... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE AS OFFSHORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS...THROUGH LATE MORNING. BETWEEN 15-19Z...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS OVER L.A. BASIN REGION BEFORE 19Z AND OVER PORTIONS SAN JOAQUIN/SAC VALLEY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS EXCEEDING 65 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 J/KG. HOWEVER...SEVERAL FACTORS INDICATE BUOYANCY WILL BE MINIMAL...INCLUDING 1. EARLY TIMING OF TROUGH ARRIVAL COMPARED TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING... 2. LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND 3. WEAKENING OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COOLING/DPVA WITH TIME. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS REASONABLY DEPICT MIDLEVEL WARM/CAPPING LAYER AHEAD OF TROUGH...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. SUBSEQUENTLY...MUCAPE UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH AND W OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH...BUT ACCOMPANIED BY VEERED SFC FLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. THEREFORE WILL OUTLOOK SOME TSTM POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY INVOF IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 12:57:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 07:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501071259.j07CxbJV005376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071257 SWODY1 SPC AC 071255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 30 W LFK 25 NE TYR TXK 10 S PBF 20 ESE MEM 10 NE BNA CSV CHA GAD 55 ESE MEI 40 SSW MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 35 NNE OXR LAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE NM THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER OK TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A SHALLOW FRONT ACROSS S GA AND THE IMMEDIATE N CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE INLAND/REFORM FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL LA/MS/NRN AL BY LATE TODAY...S OF THE ONGOING RAIN BAND FROM NW LA TO MIDDLE TN. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SW LA TO CENTRAL MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS INLAND THROUGH ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING...THE LOW LEVELS WILL DESTABILIZE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR PARCELS BASED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE GROUND. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE INVOF THE SABINE RIVER...AND CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO MS/AL/TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE REASONABLY STRONG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL LIMIT CAPE AND ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. ...PACIFIC COAST AREA... A DEEP/COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS AS A SEPARATE WAVE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST EJECTS EWD AND LOSES AMPLITUDE. SOME CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING OVER CENTRAL CA TODAY...WHILE LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MAY SKIRT THE COAST FROM NW CA TO WA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 16:27:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 11:27:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501071629.j07GTGK5023197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071617 SWODY1 SPC AC 071615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BPT 50 SW TYR 30 S PRX HOT DYR BWG 50 SE BNA HSV MEI LUL GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 10 W RAL SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS INTO THE TN VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NM/WEST TX BORDER. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS...INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM LA INTO NORTHERN AL/MIDDLE TN. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SHALLOW COOL/STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE IS EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...WEST COAST... LARGE/DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM ORE INTO SOUTHERN CA. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER...AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST. ..HART.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 7 19:45:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 14:45:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501071947.j07JlUSX000589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071944 SWODY1 SPC AC 071942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BPT 25 W POE 20 WSW SHV 25 S TXK 25 E LIT 20 SSW DYR 25 S CKV 20 ENE BNA 50 WSW CSV 20 NW BHM 25 NE LUL 25 S MCB 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK UKI PRB 10 W RAL 35 NNE SAN 15 SE SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SOON SHIFT AWAY FROM NRN GULF STATES. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG WIND SHIFT FROM SWRN LA INTO CNTRL MS. SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED FOR A FEW DEEPER UPDRAFTS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS YET TO NEUTRALIZE. AS LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. AIRMASS RECOVERY INTO THE TN VALLEY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ...WEST COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVED INLAND AND WEAKENED ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. WITH INITIAL BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THIS REGION...THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COAST. ..DARROW.. 01/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 00:56:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 19:56:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501080058.j080wEEK010104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080055 SWODY1 SPC AC 080053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 30 NW LFT 15 WSW JAN GWO 60 SSW CKV BNA 40 NE CSV TYS SEM 35 SW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD FETCH OF WSWLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM PACIFIC OFFSHORE SRN CA..TO MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...INTERRUPTED ONLY BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS OZARK PLATEAU. EXPECT THAT TROUGH TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE...EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...COLD FRONT WITH WEAK LOWS OVER CENTRAL/NRN MS IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MORE OF MS...SRN LA AND AL DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...WHILE SFC LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS KY AND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS CA AND WILL CONTINUE DEAMPLIFYING TONIGHT OVER GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...EXPECT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE WA TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH 06-09Z PERIOD THEN TURN NEWD TOWARD CAPE FLATTERY AND VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 12Z. ...MS DELTA TO TN VALLEY... BAND OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND BROKEN LINE OF EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM S-CENTRAL LA NEWD TO N-CENTRAL/NWRN AL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS/AL AND SERN LA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN OVERALL COVERAGE. EXPECT REMAINING INSTABILITY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE DECREASING TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER SERN LA AND COASTAL MS...AND AOB 200 J/KG FARTHER INLAND. LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION -- EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER E TX...SRN OK AND SWRN AR...WILL IMPINGE ON REGION FROM W AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS AWAY FROM REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH FROM W-E AND WITH TIME. ...W COAST... TSTM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER COASTAL CENTRAL/SRN CA WITH INLAND PASSAGE AND WEAKENING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES. A FEW CG LIGHTING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WELL OFFSHORE ORE COAST...IN REGION OF SHALLOW/COLD-CORE CB ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LOW. EPISODIC LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WA/ORE COAST AS PERIPHERY OF SOME OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 02:48:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:48:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501080249.j082ntZ3020527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080243 SWODY1 SPC AC 080242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0842 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MCB 20 NNE LUL TCL BHM 40 SSW ANB MGM 45 N PNS MOB GPT 45 NNE MSY 30 SSE MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 7R4 25 NNE BTR 20 NNW LUL CBM 35 NNE MSL 10 ESE BNA 40 NE CSV 50 S TYS 20 ESE LGC 30 S BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 30 E AST 40 NNE 4BK CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL/SERN MS/SERN LA... AMENDED FOR SVR POTENTIAL PORTIONS MS/LA/AL ...MIDDLE GULF COASTAL PLAIN... SEVERE TSTM THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM SERN LA TO CENTRAL AL...WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR IS OFFSETTING WEAK BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND A FEW ROTATING CELLS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 44 AND WW 1 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 05:29:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 00:29:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501080531.j085VDmW018126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080528 SWODY1 SPC AC 080527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW HUM MOB MGM 30 W ATL ATL MCN TLH 35 S AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID -LOWER MS VALLEY -- IS DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD TOWARD GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AROUND 09/00Z...LEAVING BEHIND BROAD ZONE OF WSWLY/SWLY FLOW FROM COAST TO COAST. UPSTREAM MEAN TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OFF WA/ORE COAST IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE ERRATICALLY BUT REMAIN GENERALLY IN SAME AREA...AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND ITS CENTER. AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER TN SHOULD EJECT NEWD THROUGH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE SFC AIR AND OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC -- AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROGGED TO STALL/WEAKEN NEAR PRESENT POSITION...BUT SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED EWD ACROSS AL/GA EARLY IN PERIOD BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ...SERN CONUS... AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATES AWAY FROM AREA...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE TSTMS NOW OVER DELTA REGION AND AL WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 08/12Z. VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN MOIST SECTOR SHOULD REDUCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...EXPECT WEAK CAPPING AND MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIR MASS -- WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F -- TO REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL TSTMS WITHIN PLUME OF PRECIP ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPS SHOULD WEAKEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO LIKEWISE DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. ...PACIFIC COAST... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER PACIFIC WATERS...OCCASIONALLY CROSSING OVER ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM NWRN CA THROUGH WA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING LIGHTNING BENEATH COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS OFFSHORE ORE. AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ROTATE THROUGH ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THAT LOW...ASSOCIATED ZONES OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AFFECT COAST INTERMITTENTLY AND THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...GIVEN LACK OF MOVEMENT OF MAIN UPPER AIR CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLATED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY AFFECT COAST IN ANY GIVEN INTERVAL OF A FEW HOURS...PROBABLE CUMULATIVE COVERAGE THROUGH WHOLE PERIOD WARRANTS GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 12:57:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 07:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501081259.j08CxWMl023375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081257 SWODY1 SPC AC 081255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA 25 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 30 ESE MOB 10 S TOI 10 NNE LGC 20 SE ATL MCN 20 WNW MGR 10 SSW AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE OH VALLEY TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY TONIGHT. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WV...BUT THIS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END BY 13Z. FARTHER S...A WEAKENING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ACROSS SE AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE IMMEDIATE SE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS THE OH VALLEY LOW. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING ASCENT WITH TIME SUGGEST THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ...WA/ORE COASTS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW W OF AST...WITH A BROAD FIELD OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR AND OFF THE SW WA AND ORE COASTS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB -32 C AND MEAN LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM BELOW 500 MB WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE COAST...WHILE A COLDER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FARTHER INLAND. ..THOMPSON.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 16:31:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 11:31:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501081633.j08GXTW7010582@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA 25 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE MOB TOI CSG ABY 25 SSE TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... FAST ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PACIFIC COAST. SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ...PACIFIC COAST... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WA/ORE AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGES. LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWS CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. ..HART.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 8 19:56:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 14:56:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501081958.j08JwKw9003943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081955 SWODY1 SPC AC 081953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 35 ESE EKA 25 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST COAST... LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP...ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM...FROM COASTAL WA/ORE WWD BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. LATEST SATELLITE SUPPORTS THIS WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING NEWD TOWARD THE COAST. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE EXPECTED GRADUAL FILLING OF THE UPPER LOW AND SLOW MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ID INTO NERN NV...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. ...FL PANHANDLE... SEWD-MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT...WARMER WATERS OF NRN GULF MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. ..DARROW.. 01/08/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 00:33:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 19:33:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501090034.j090YthD014836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090032 SWODY1 SPC AC 090030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE UIL 25 NE HQM EUG 40 ENE CEC 50 WNW TVL 35 S MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW... COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS THIS EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND FROM NRN CA TO WRN WA. SHORT TERM LIGHTNING LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO NRN CA...ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD...WITH WARMING MID-TROPOSPHERE ACROSS NRN CA AND SRN ORE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. THUS... GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE COASTAL RANGES OF NWRN ORE/SWRN WA OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE STEEPEST. ..RACY.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 04:59:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 23:59:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501090501.j0951BR9009269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090458 SWODY1 SPC AC 090457 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 30 SSE AST 25 ENE OTH 40 NNE 4BK 25 SE CEC EKA 40 S EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL 10 W RAL 20 W CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ENERGETIC ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS AMERICA ON SUNDAY. LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE VOID OF TSTM PROBABILITIES...EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE PAC COAST. UPPER LOW OFF WA/ORE WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND RETROGRADE SWWD. A PHASING PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...BETWEEN 22-26N/ 135-138W...APPEAR NOT WELL RECOGNIZED IN LATEST MODEL SUITE. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH SRN CA BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...WA/ORE/NRN CA COASTAL AREAS... HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST DURING THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND MOVES SWWD...UPPER RIDGING/MID-LEVEL WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE AND CAUSE THE EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO FALL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH TIME. ...SRN CA... STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SRN CA. CONVECTIVE THREATS WILL BE ENHANCED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH. MODEST LAPSE RATES ATOP MOIST MARINE LAYER WILL SUPPORT TSTMS... MAINLY FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO SWD TO SAN DIEGO. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..RACY.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 12:58:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 07:58:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501091300.j09D0CTw007232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091258 SWODY1 SPC AC 091256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 15 SE AST 40 WNW SLE 25 SSW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL 10 W RAL 20 W CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 28 N AND 130 W WILL REACH SRN CA LATER THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA CONFIRM A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SRN CA. FARTHER N...THE MID LEVEL LOW W OF AST IS FILLING AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS ALSO BE GRADUALLY SHRINKING. A TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC NW SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..THOMPSON.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 9 16:12:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 11:12:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501091613.j09GDlvx008992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091609 SWODY1 SPC AC 091607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 AM CST SUN JAN 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SMX 40 SW BFL 10 W RAL 20 W CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE UIL HQM 15 SE AST 40 WNW SLE 25 SSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WITH MAIN UPPER LOW OFF THE WA COAST. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST OFFSHORE...AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF WA/ORE WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER SOUTH...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE L.A. BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXTENDS INLAND TOWARD SOUTHERN NV. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT ENLARGING THE OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 01/09/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 05:35:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 00:35:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501140538.j0E5c6gG000805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140536 SWODY1 SPC AC 140534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST THU JAN 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 35 WNW CHS 10 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW AQQ 25 W VLD 15 ESE AGS 35 NE CLT 15 WNW NHK 15 SE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INCLUDING MUCH OF FL TODAY... ...SYNOPSIS... CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE DOMINATED BY EXTENSIVE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS...WILL TRACK EAST TO THE COASTAL PLAIN/OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS LINE WILL EXTEND SWWD TO FL...AND THEN INTO THE ERN GULF. A PRONOUNCED LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF...WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD ASCENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROCEED ESEWD ACROSS FL THROUGH TODAY. ...ERN CAROLINAS/GA EARLY... STRONG DEEP LAYER SSWLY/MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE ERN FLANK OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS RESULTING IN OVERALL SLOW EWD PROGRESSION TO THE FRONTAL ZONE/SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SLOW MOVEMENT HAS ALLOWED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE STRONGER CONVERGENCE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE ENCOUNTERS THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS PROCESS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR OCCASIONALLY VIGOROUS TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OUTER BANKS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE ARE PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT LOCALLY MODEST HODOGRAPH CURVATURE DOES EXIST IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT ENHANCEMENT AND A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...FROM ERN NC SWWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...FL... TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION... COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TSTMS OVER FL TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR INITIALLY. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...AND/OR FRONTAL WAVE...MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SR INFLOW AND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN FL...MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 12:58:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 07:58:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501141300.j0ED0khs031726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141258 SWODY1 SPC AC 141257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ILM 35 NE RWI 35 NW ORF 35 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 15 NW JAX 25 S SAV 30 W CRE 55 NNE RWI 25 NNE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY BECOMING DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER CONUS NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SRN BRANCH TROUGH HAS RAPIDLY ACCELERATED NEWD ACROSS ERN U.S. AND IS DE AMPLIFYING UNDER INFLUENCE OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX. PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SSWWD NEAR NJ COAST AND ERN CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL FL...IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN THE MUCH COOLER...DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS. AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE...VERY STRONG SLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED WITH 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET ERN CAROLINAS INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AIR THAT HAS COVERED E COAST WILL SOON BE REPLACED BY THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO THE W. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE AT 13Z FROM SRN DE/ERN VA AND ERN NC WILL CONTINUE EWD TO OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS MORNING. STILL A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE. SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND VERY LOW LCL'S SUPPORT THIS THREAT. ...FL PENINSULA... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY LINE NOW OVER CENTRAL FL AS LOW AND MID LEVEL JETS PULL NEWD AWAY FROM AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED E AND S OF PREFRONTAL LINE. THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COUPLED WITH HEATING...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND POOR LAPSE RATES HAVE REDUCED SEVERE RISK FL PENINSULA FOR TODAY FROM EARLIER OUTLOOK. ..HALES.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 16:29:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 11:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501141632.j0EGWGb2001786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141627 SWODY1 SPC AC 141625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE OAJ 45 SW ECG 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ILM 45 ENE RWI 20 ENE WAL ...CONT... 25 SSE SRQ 10 E DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER ERN HUDSON BAY/NRN QUEBEC WILL DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. IMPULSE WHICH RACED NE ACROSS THE OH VLY LATE YESTERDAY HAS BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN STRONG SW FLOW ON ERN FLANK OF POLAR LOW AND HAS HELPED ACCELERATE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT E TO THE NC CAPES. FARTHER S...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WAS OVER NRN MEXICO AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED E INTO THE NERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SHOULD...HOWEVER...WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E/NE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. ...S FL... CORRIDOR OF TRUE TROPICAL AIR NOW OVER S FL WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD AND EWD. IN THE MEANTIME...MODEST SURFACE HEATING...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BNDRY...ESPECIALLY INVOF APPARENT CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO FL FROM OFF THE NE COAST OF CUBA /PER STLT/. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /6.0 - 6.5 DEG C PER KM/...HEATING SHOULD BOOST MEAN MUCAPE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...MODERATE /25-30 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD FOR CELL MERGERS...SETUP WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...FAR ERN NC... COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD CLEAR THE NC CAPES BY 18Z. UNTIL THEN...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OVER FAR ERN NC GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STRONG /50+ KT/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW. ..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 14 19:26:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 14:26:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501141928.j0EJSodA002936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141926 SWODY1 SPC AC 141924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S FMY 50 ESE FMY 40 WNW PBI 15 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW-ENHANCED BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA FROM NEAR PBI SWWD INTO THE CNTRL FL KEYS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LARGER-SCALE ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN CANADA HAVE MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE LINE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ WHICH IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SERN PENINSULA WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE LAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY BY 100-150 MILES...CURRENT MIA VWP DOES INDICATE A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BEFORE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 00:37:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 19:37:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501150040.j0F0eGiL027997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150038 SWODY1 SPC AC 150036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEADING EDGE OF EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS NOW PASSED OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WITH BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. CONVECTION WAS CONTINUING ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...FROM THE BAHAMAS SWWD TO THE FL STRAITS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR TSTMS DURING THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..CARBIN.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 05:23:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 00:23:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501150526.j0F5Qhwe015034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150525 SWODY1 SPC AC 150523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E EYW 45 W PBI 10 NNE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST...COUPLED WITH A MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM JET MAX MOVING FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN AREAS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONUS LAND AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS...SEGMENTS OF THE MOST RECENT POLAR FRONT HAVE STALLED ACROSS SRN FL WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY. ...SERN FL... WEAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL AID LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER SRN FL DURING THE DAY. WHILE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACT TO INITIALLY LIMIT CAPE/INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON HEATING AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS FORMING NEAR A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY MEAGER STORM UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR. ..CARBIN.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 12:47:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 07:47:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501151250.j0FCoATG019669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151247 SWODY1 SPC AC 151245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EYW 45 WNW MIA 30 N PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SE OF SRN FL. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON 12Z EYW SOUNDING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VICINITY AND JUST N OF FRONT THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS...GRADUAL MID LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD RESULT IN FEW STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND S FL. ..HALES.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 16:30:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 11:30:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501151633.j0FGXYAh013841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151631 SWODY1 SPC AC 151629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD/STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR NEAR THE SE FL COAST...THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY FEED WILL REMAIN OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. ..THOMPSON.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 15 19:52:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 14:52:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501151954.j0FJsutj006720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151953 SWODY1 SPC AC 151951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ALONG/E FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SERN FL PENINSULA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS BOUNDARY AND INHERENT THUNDER THREAT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WITH PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 00:55:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 19:55:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501160057.j0G0vgPY000875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160056 SWODY1 SPC AC 160054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 04:38:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 23:38:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501160441.j0G4fJxE019479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160439 SWODY1 SPC AC 160437 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 PM CST SAT JAN 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 12:30:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 07:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501161233.j0GCXLhN013425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161231 SWODY1 SPC AC 161229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..HALES.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 16:31:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 11:31:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501161633.j0GGXjPD000753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161631 SWODY1 SPC AC 161630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..THOMPSON.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 16 19:48:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 14:48:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501161950.j0GJojFK020329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161947 SWODY1 SPC AC 161946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..MEAD.. 01/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 05:36:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:36:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501170539.j0H5dZLY015345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170537 SWODY1 SPC AC 170536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LONG FETCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVANCING NEWD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO WA/ORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME IF LIFTING PARCELS NEAR 850MB. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 12:29:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 07:29:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501171232.j0HCWTsY007321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171230 SWODY1 SPC AC 171228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND OFF THE WA COAST. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NATION ON DAY1. ..HART.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 16:32:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 11:32:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501171634.j0HGYngn028501@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171632 SWODY1 SPC AC 171630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..THOMPSON.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 17 19:49:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 14:49:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501171952.j0HJqDiQ008817@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171950 SWODY1 SPC AC 171948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MIGHT OCCUR NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX AND NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITHIN THE U.S. MAINLAND WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 00:46:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 19:46:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501180049.j0I0nJPF030546@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180048 SWODY1 SPC AC 180046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MINIMAL THUNDER THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO. THOUGH A COUPLE OF STRIKES MAY STRAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO FAR W TX...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN A STRAY STRIKE WITHIN PRECIPITATION PLUME OVER THE PAC NW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 05:08:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 00:08:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501180510.j0I5Akaf032151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180508 SWODY1 SPC AC 180506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 PM CST MON JAN 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THIS PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THOUGH SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SWD / EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WITH TIME AS CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS / MIDWEST...THREAT FOR THUNDER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE CONUS. ..GOSS.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 12:48:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 07:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501181250.j0ICow9H026288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181248 SWODY1 SPC AC 181246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER PATTERN TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...AND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THE ONLY AREA WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT IN REGION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UVVS. HOWEVER...THIS RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A OUTLOOK AREA. ..HART.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 16:29:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 11:29:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501181632.j0IGW2bD018980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181629 SWODY1 SPC AC 181627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF AN ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A COLD/RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. ACROSS THE PAC NW...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE OVER WA...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES/MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. FINALLY...12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER DEEP S TX...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN A STRONG MID LEVEL STABLE LAYER. ..THOMPSON.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 18 19:26:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 14:26:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501181928.j0IJSW0C026266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181925 SWODY1 SPC AC 181924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S TX... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER S TX THROUGH TONIGHT WITHIN A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS MODIFYING AIR OVER THE GULF ADVECTS INLAND. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LACK OF ASCENT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 00:29:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 19:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501190031.j0J0VaFV001693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190029 SWODY1 SPC AC 190027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...PRECLUDING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAC NW. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. ..GOSS.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 05:28:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 00:28:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501190531.j0J5VMS1020506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190529 SWODY1 SPC AC 190527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED IN THE LARGE SCALE THIS PERIOD...WITH RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 12:47:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 07:47:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501191249.j0JCncch022641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191247 SWODY1 SPC AC 191245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RELATIVELY DRY...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY. ..HART.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 16:11:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 11:11:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501191613.j0JGDTVD026422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191607 SWODY1 SPC AC 191605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BENIGN PATTERN...WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS...WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS PERIOD. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RETROGRADING MID LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN S OF THE U.S. BORDER. ..THOMPSON.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 19 19:27:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 14:27:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501191930.j0JJU4Xe014368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191928 SWODY1 SPC AC 191926 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE EASTERN U.S./ WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DIGGING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT PROGRESSES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. INITIATION OF ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 20/03-06Z TIME FRAME...BUT LIKELY WILL OCCUR 150-200 MILES EAST OF HATTERAS NC. ..KERR.. 01/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 00:37:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 19:37:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501200039.j0K0dshi024921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200038 SWODY1 SPC AC 200036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 05:38:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 00:38:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501200540.j0K5eplF013352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200539 SWODY1 SPC AC 200537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST WED JAN 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD SRN AZ AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS INLAND. DESPITE RELATIVELY STEEP/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS...IT APPEARS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE TOO MARGINAL FOR INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. ..DARROW.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 12:51:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 07:51:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501201253.j0KCraXW010118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201251 SWODY1 SPC AC 201249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. A FEW STRIKES MAY OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. ..HART.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 16:08:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 11:08:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501201611.j0KGBB9N006007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201607 SWODY1 SPC AC 201605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 AM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..HALES.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 20 19:54:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 14:54:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501201957.j0KJv4sh015256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201955 SWODY1 SPC AC 201953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DIAL.. 01/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 00:36:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 19:36:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501210038.j0L0ci9O000900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210036 SWODY1 SPC AC 210034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... NWD STREAMING WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS SPREADING INTO SRN AZ/SWRN NM AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TUS SUGGESTS THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ROUGHLY WITHIN THE 3-6KM LAYER AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TERRIBLY BUOYANT. THE ONLY REAL BUOYANCY IS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STEEPER. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER THIS PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 05:33:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:33:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501210536.j0L5a1eO011203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210534 SWODY1 SPC AC 210532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST THU JAN 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL DRIFT ENEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VERY LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN AZ AS COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER. DESPITE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. ...ERN TN TO SRN OH... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. DESPITE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO SRN OH...IT APPEARS DEEP WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO REGION OF DEEP ASCENT. CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA LATE BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 13:05:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 08:05:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501211307.j0LD7nlC017194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211305 SWODY1 SPC AC 211303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 70 ENE BLH 55 SE PHX 40 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN BAJA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND INTO MS VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT ACROSS THIS REGION -- AS WELL AS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS -- TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN AZ... WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING CONTINUES ATTM JUST S OF THE AZ / MEXICO BORDER...JUST NE OF UPPER LOW CENTER. WITH THIS LOW -- AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT -- FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD...GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AZ...WHERE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LIMITED COOLING ALOFT SHOULD YIELD SLIGHT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. ..GOSS.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 16:01:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 11:01:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501211603.j0LG3S0m007141@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211556 SWODY1 SPC AC 211555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 75 SW PRC 55 SW SOW 40 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM UPR MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT LOWER OH VALLEY. CUT-OFF LOW VICINITY CENTRAL BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NEWD THRU THE PERIOD. ...SRN AZ... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND UPR LOW INTO SRN AZ. WHILE LITTLE INSTABILITY DEPICTED ON 12Z TUS SOUNDING...CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NRN SONORA TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SRN AZ. WITH UPPER LOW BURIED UNDER WRN RIDGE ANY MOVEMENT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE SLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC. ...TN VALLEY... MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN FROM WRN GULF OF MEXICO COUPLED WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION LATE IN PERIOD VICINITY TN VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND LATE TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 21 20:01:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 15:01:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501212003.j0LK3ftr022875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212000 SWODY1 SPC AC 211958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 75 SW PRC 55 SW SOW 40 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CA/SONORA REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AZ. IR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SONORA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES EXPECTED OVER SRN AZ WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DEVELOP NWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NEWD. ...TN VALLEY... MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 00:51:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 19:51:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501220053.j0M0rNYV019094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220051 SWODY1 SPC AC 220049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 25 ENE TUS 50 SSE SAD 60 SW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN U.S... CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH ONE SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBE NOW ROTATING NWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO/SRN AZ. THIS FEATURE ALLOWED SRN AZ TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...AND PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...IT APPEARS THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT ALONG THE BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 05:36:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:36:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501220538.j0M5cMQn031372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220536 SWODY1 SPC AC 220534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST FRI JAN 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 15 W MSY 25 NNW GPT 40 NE MOB 35 WSW DHN MAI 20 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS 10 SSW FAY 40 N RWI 35 E RIC 15 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CAROLINAS/SERN VA... VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150-200M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY 00Z/23RD. RETREATING WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM COASTAL SC...NNEWD INTO SERN VA OR PERHAPS SRN MD. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT AND GREATER COVERAGE TO AREAS OFFSHORE. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE GULF STATES TOWARD COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STEEPEN/COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT WILL NOT PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS WITHIN MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...OR MORE LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING. ..DARROW.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 13:02:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 08:02:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501221304.j0MD4ItS025169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221302 SWODY1 SPC AC 221300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 15 W MSY 25 NNW GPT 40 NE MOB 35 WSW DHN MAI 20 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CHS 25 ESE FLO 30 W OAJ 15 ESE RWI 65 SW RIC 30 SW DCA 15 NNW ILG 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LEX 35 SE DAY 25 SSE MFD 25 SE YNG 10 NNE LBE 10 NNW EKN 30 SSW CRW 25 WNW JKL 35 NNE LEX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE YUM 35 NW PHX 55 WNW SAD 25 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NOW OVER NRN IA AND NW IND EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE BUT PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E OFF THE NJ CST EARLY SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CENTER STRENGTHENS S OF CAPE COD. ...UPR OH VLY... EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD MIDWESTERN DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /TOTAL TOTALS INDICES AROUND 48/...MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDER OVER OH/NRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST EWD INTO WRN PA/WRN WV THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND THAT TIME AS AREA OF STRONGEST ASCENT LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM 850 MB THERMAL AXIS. THE CONVECTION WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. ...MID ATL CST... HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 210M WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN FROM HAT TO NYC LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW INTENSIFIES JUST W OF REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL REACH NRN NC/SRN VA AND ENCOURAGE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT NEAR ECG. OVERALL SETUP WILL FAVOR VERY STRONG ASCENT IN WARM ADVECTION AREA OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO SE PA/NJ. SHALLOW COLD AIR WEDGE WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. BUT STRONG UPLIFT IN PRESENCE OF SATURATED...NEARLY NEUTRAL LOW TO MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS EXPERIENCING SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE SURFACE. ...ERN CAROLINAS... FARTHER S...PASSAGE OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. FARTHER W...EXPECT SHALLOW DOME OF COOL AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SC/NC CST NEWD INTO EXTREME SE VA. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ACROSS REGION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LIMITED TIME FOR BOUNDARY LATER MOISTURE ADVECTION /GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS/ SUGGEST THAT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY ONSHORE SEVERE THREAT. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MAY... HOWEVER...DEVELOP JUST OFF THE NC/VA CAPES LATER TONIGHT. ...SRN AZ... ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ON NRN FRINGE OF NW MEXICAN UPPER LOW...WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO COEXIST. ...CNTRL GULF CST... DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER TODAY AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES SE TOWARD COASTAL LA/MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER SFC MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F...DEEP THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY NOT STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW ALONG COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR NEAR OR ...MORE LIKELY...JUST OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING. ..CORFIDI.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 16:28:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 11:28:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501221631.j0MGV8Kl008357@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221625 SWODY1 SPC AC 221623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 10 N OAJ 10 ESE RWI 55 S RIC 15 ENE RIC 15 WSW NHK 30 W DOV 20 NE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING ALONG COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE CAROLINAS WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME DOMINANT LOW AS MAJOR STORM DEVELOPS OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY. SHARP COASTAL FRONT LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE EXCEPT OUTER BANKS NC THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD WEDGE E OF APPALACHIANS IS QUITE STRONG. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 50-60 KT THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ELEVATED MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING AREA OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN NC TO OFFSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NEWD BY THIS EVENING AT LEAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY. ...SRN AZ... AS UPPER LOW HAS WOBBLED BACK TO THE W ...OVER CENTRAL BAJA...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD WWD INTO SERN AZ. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY S OF AZ BORDER WITH A FEW STRIKES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE SONORA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ...GULF COAST... LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AREA AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH RAPIDLY SEWD TO OFFSHORE GULF COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT. PREDOMINANT WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH LITTLE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 22 19:58:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 14:58:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501222000.j0MK0dtX005352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221958 SWODY1 SPC AC 221956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 10 N OAJ 10 ESE RWI 55 S RIC 15 ENE RIC 15 WSW NHK 30 W DOV 20 NE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL AREAS OF MID ATLANTIC STATES... VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 110 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...DEEPENING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST...WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY PER ANALYZED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS UP TO 9 MB/3 HR ACROSS THIS AREA...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MAJOR STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COASTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NC OUTER BANKS. N-S EXTENSIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS COLD AIR DAMMING JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS QUITE STRONG AS INDICATED BY GSO/IAD 18Z SOUNDINGS. THE LACK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA PERSISTS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ACROSS ERN NC TO SRN NJ. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 00:43:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 19:43:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501230045.j0N0jPUd031832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230043 SWODY1 SPC AC 230041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE EWN 30 NNE EWN 45 WNW ECG 35 ESE RIC 20 SSE NHK 25 SSW DOV 20 WSW ACY 15 E NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NJ/DE SWD TO NERN NC... INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION INTO NERN NC. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE CHARACTER OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 05:30:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 00:30:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501230533.j0N5XEv0014056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230531 SWODY1 SPC AC 230529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE W...A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IN MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/138W/ APPROACHES THE W COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL BAJA CA WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. ...SRN AZ... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ALONG OR JUST N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER AREA ATTM. ..MEAD.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 12:24:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 07:24:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501231226.j0NCQpCw027324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231225 SWODY1 SPC AC 231223 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 WSW GBN 15 SSW PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW 30N/135W APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED UPON MOVING INTO BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. AS PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE OVER THE PACIFIC...EXPECT IMPULSE TO TURN MORE NEWD LATER TODAY AND FORCE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA TO LIFT N TOWARD THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. ...SRN AZ... LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN QUARTER OF AZ THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS BAJA UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS AGREE THAT AN AXIS OF HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF SYSTEM... WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG. COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF THUNDER DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. ..CORFIDI.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 16:14:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 11:14:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501231616.j0NGGkeL011280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231612 SWODY1 SPC AC 231610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 WSW GBN 15 SSW PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA REGION...JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER. THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL OVER THE U.S...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION LATER TODAY. ..EVANS.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 23 19:37:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501231939.j0NJdrm1001526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231937 SWODY1 SPC AC 231935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 WSW GBN 15 SSW PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED A SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CA AND SONORA MEXICO. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SWRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AT 28N 130W PROGRESSES EWD. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 01/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 00:37:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 19:37:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501240039.j0O0dPEl030222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240037 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 35 WSW GBN 45 SE PHX 25 SSW SAD 45 E DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AZ... DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY MOVED/DEVELOPED NWWD ACROSS SONORA AND WRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO TO VICINITY OF THE AZ BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF OPENING UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CA. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z TUS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH A MULI OF -1 AND MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 15 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. 7 C/KM / AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT N OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT...EXPECT A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AZ. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 05:26:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 00:26:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501240528.j0O5SsJ6031237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240526 SWODY1 SPC AC 240524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST...AND AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION /CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF CA OR NWRN SONORA MEXICO/ LIFTS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE E...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND IN WAKE OF DEEP...CLOSED LOW SHIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE COAST. ...WRN NM... APPROACH OF COLD POOL /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH MOBILE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THESE LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED OWING TO THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUS...A GENERAL TSTM AREA WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED ATTM. ...CA CNTRL VALLEY... THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT AIR MASS MOISTENING INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING TROUGH. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...NAMELY IN THE 750 TO 550 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES THROUGH THIS LAYER WILL REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND ANY RESULTANT LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 12:38:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 07:38:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501241240.j0OCeLhx016797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241238 SWODY1 SPC AC 241236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 15 NE TUS 65 ESE PHX 10 SW SOW 55 SW GNT 25 N ONM 35 WSW 4CR 40 SE TCS 45 SW SVC 20 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE ACROSS SRN AZ THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE E INTO NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR 32N/128W EXPECTED TO LIFT NNE OFF THE CA CST AHEAD OF STRONGER/BROADER UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING 140W. ...SRN/ERN AZ INTO WRN NM... THUNDER THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER SRN AZ DURING THE OVERNIGHT MAY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE SHEARS ALONG A W/E AXIS NEAR TUS/FHU. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ERN RIM COUNTRY EWD INTO PARTS OF NM LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER VORT CENTER DESTABILIZE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER NIGHTFALL. ...CNTRL CA... SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM GLANCING THE CNTRL CA CST. DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AOA 700MB MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER VORT CENTER LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SUBSTANTIAL CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING. ..CORFIDI.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 16:28:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 11:28:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501241630.j0OGURGg016072@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241624 SWODY1 SPC AC 241622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 40 N TUS 60 WSW SOW 40 ESE INW 15 SE GUP 30 SW ABQ 35 WSW 4CR 40 SE TCS 45 SW SVC 20 ESE DUG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NNEWD INTO ERN AZ/WRN NM TODAY AND THEN ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD ERN AZ/WRN NM AND LIKELY SUPPORT RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN HALF OF INTERIOR CA... LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL SPREAD INLAND AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CA COAST...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -20C. IN ADDITION INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..EVANS.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 24 20:00:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 15:00:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501242002.j0OK2hw0018294@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242000 SWODY1 SPC AC 241959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 50 ESE GBN 55 E PHX 30 SSW INW GUP 30 SW ABQ ONM TCS SVC 45 SW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NNWWD THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES AND TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD INTO ATLANTIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN AZ...IS GOING TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN TURN EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 25/12Z. ...AZ/NM... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING NUMBER/DEPTH OF TCU AND CB OVER MUCH OF THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...MARGINAL BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE WITH 30S/40S F SFC DEW POINTS...OROGRAPHICALLY AIDED LIFT AND WEAKENING CINH. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES UP TO 300 J/KG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO WHITE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND SMALL CB MAY MOVE ASHORE COASTAL CA...IN ERN PERIPHERY OF ZONE OF COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT GEN THUNDER FCST. AIR MASS E OF ROCKIES REMAINS TOO DRY/STABLE FOR TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 01/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 00:34:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 19:34:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501250036.j0P0ak0x026606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250034 SWODY1 SPC AC 250032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GNT 45 WNW 4SL 50 N SAF 15 SSW LVS 35 E 4CR 30 E ALM 30 S TCS 55 W ONM 10 W GNT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM... ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL NM WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION. DESPITE LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY OBSERVED IN THE 00Z ABQ SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT MODESTLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FOR ASCENT HAVE SUSTAINED ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE RATES WEAKEN. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 05:23:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 00:23:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501250525.j0P5Phhd001797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250521 SWODY1 SPC AC 250520 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CST MON JAN 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW UKI 55 NW RBL 30 NNE RBL 45 SSW TVL 30 ENE FAT 25 ENE EDW 25 NE LGB 20 E OXR 45 ENE MRY 55 NNW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... EWD PROGRESSION OF ERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAKER PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN PATTERN ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL VALLEY OF CA... GRADUAL MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES /AOB MOIST ADIABATIC/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT DIABATIC HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 100-200 J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ..MEAD.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 12:35:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 07:35:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501251237.j0PCbZQv028489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251235 SWODY1 SPC AC 251233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S EKA 50 E ACV 30 NE RBL 35 SSW TVL 35 WSW BIH 55 ENE NID 30 W DAG 25 ENE PRB 25 WSW SJC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A WEAK...PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM LOOSELY ORGANIZED NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH OFF THE W CST. THE TROUGH CONTAINS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...PER STLT. DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR 38N/125W HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 24 HRS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHEAR NNE OFF ORE/NRN CA CST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRAILING RIBBON OF VORTICITY EXTENDING S FROM THE VORT WILL ENTER NW CA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...STLT LOOPS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR PORTION OF SYSTEM NOW NEAR 25N/125W WILL TRACK MAINLY ESE...LEAVING CA IN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY WEAKER FLOW/ASCENT...MORE OR LESS AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ETA. ...CNTRL/NRN CA... GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES REGION. IN RESPONSE ...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CSTL RANGES N OF SFO AND ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN AND CNTRL SIERRA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT LOW LEVEL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK /CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC/ AND EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM /AROUND MINUS 15C/. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING VORT LOBE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPOTS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 16:15:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 11:15:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501251617.j0PGHa4D013758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251613 SWODY1 SPC AC 251611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THEY LIFT ENEWD ACROSS CA. MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THOUGH INCREASING UVV...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL. ..EVANS.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 25 19:42:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 14:42:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501251944.j0PJipKB015580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251943 SWODY1 SPC AC 251941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO FEATURE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD INTO ATLANTIC...AND RIDGE FROM NRN MEX ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES. WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- PRESENTLY EXITING RIDGE AS IT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS OK -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM PERTURBATION INDICATED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY -- ABOUT 350-400 NM W OF BAJA SPUR -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NRN BAJA AND SRN CA TONIGHT...AMIDST PREVAILING SWLY FLOW. AT SFC...CYCLONE INVOF LS -- ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN ONT/NERN MN -- WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARD MID ATLANTIC REGION AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. ...SRN/CENTRAL CA COAST AND CENTRAL VALLEY... MIDLEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE WEAKLY AS SRN STREAM TROUGH APCHS SRN CA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW CONVECTION IN BANDS MOVING INLAND. STILL...EXPECT LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC...LIMITING BOTH DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY. NAM MODEL SBCAPES IN FAT-SAC AXIS ARE PREDICATED ON SFC TEMPS MID/UPPER 60S F...UNLIKELY OVER MUCH OF VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT DIAGNOSTIC TRENDS AND MODIFIED NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY/LIMIT SFC HEATING NEAR AXIS OF SAC VALLEY AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...THOUGH AREAS CURRENTLY CLEARED OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL/SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CAN HEAT INTO LOW 60S F. WHILE SMALL POCKETS OF SBCAPE AND VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TOO WEAK FOR GEN TSTM RISK. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST... LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION AND ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...IN RESPONSE TO PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER OK. GULF AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY FROM VERY LOW-THETAE ORIGINS AS CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR MASS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SPEED OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND GREAT DEGREE OF MARINE ADJUSTMENT REMAINING BEFORE AIR MASS YIELDS DEEP ENOUGH CAPE PROFILE TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...GEN TSTM THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM FOR AN OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 26 01:02:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 20:02:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501260104.j0Q14RJD029348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MULI/S OF -1 TO -2 C AND MUCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 00Z NKX OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT BELOW 500-600 MB REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO THE N OVER THE SIERRAS NW OF TVL WHERE IT APPEARS THAT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED WEAKLY BUOYANT PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS...IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...SRN MO INTO TN AND NRN MS/AL... 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7.5 C/KM/ AND SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS AR/SRN MO. DESPITE WEAKENING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEEP OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST E/NE OF UPPER SYSTEM TRACK WHERE THESE LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. SHOULD ANY TSTMS DEVELOP...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA. ..MEAD.. 01/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 01:12:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 20:12:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501290115.j0T1Fli1005610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290051 SWODY1 SPC AC 290048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MRY 15 SSE SCK 50 ENE MER 55 ESE FAT 25 ESE BFL 30 N RAL 35 W TRM CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 35 SE ESF 25 N HEZ 40 NNW JAN 50 SE GWO SEM 65 SSW SEM 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ON TAIL END OF LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE SUPPORTING ONGOING NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEADING/NORTHERN EDGE OF MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING...AND PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO DEVELOP WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AWAY FROM SHORE...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN/EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATER THIS EVENING...WEAK WARMING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES. THUS...A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO PERSIST TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. ...CALIFORNIA... MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOW SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND RISK FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE COOLING PROGRESSES...AND BAND OF MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. ..KERR.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 05:45:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 00:45:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501290548.j0T5mOnP015211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290546 SWODY1 SPC AC 290544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BVE MEI 10 S HSV RMG AGS GSB 35 ESE ECG ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SGU BCE 4HV CNY 15 E DRO TAD DHT CVS 10 ESE 4CR ONM SAD 15 ESE GBN 15 NNW BLH 10 NNW EED SGU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ABI BWD TPL AUS SAT 35 WNW HDO 60 ENE P07 40 S MAF 15 E MAF 30 SSW ABI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTERACTING SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES ARE MAINTAINING STRONG HIGH-LEVEL JET...ROUGHLY AROUND 30 N LATITUDE. THIS FEATURE HAS NOSED AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL TEXAS...AND LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WAVES IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM ARE SUBTLE...WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST LEAD SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE MID SOUTH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...WHERE A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVOLVE TODAY...BEFORE SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...CORE OF HIGH LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ATOP BUILDING SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES... DAMMING OF COLD AIR IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN EARLY TODAY... BUT MORE RAPID MODIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. DESPITE WEDGE OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...MOISTENING OF ENVIRONMENT ABOVE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH/EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...AS FORCING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE PRESENT TIME...AIR MASS MODIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES... LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC JET DIGGING TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY IS SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST...AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AS CLOSED LOW EVOLVES. MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ...TEXAS... A GRADUAL MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE...BUT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE LIKELY WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...MORE LIKELY BEYOND...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL TEXAS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK TOPPING UPPER RIDGE. ..KERR.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 12:59:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 07:59:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501291302.j0TD2ZiF001117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291300 SWODY1 SPC AC 291258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 ESE GPT 25 WSW 0A8 20 N ANB 15 WNW AHN 35 NW CAE 30 SSW GSB 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW SGU 20 W BCE 10 SW 4HV 30 SSE CNY 25 SSW GUC 20 W TAD 10 SW DHT 15 SSW PVW 25 SW ABI 30 ESE BWD 15 WSW TPL 15 S AUS 15 SW SAT 30 ESE DRT 55 NW DRT 30 SSW HOB 10 N ROW 25 SSW 4CR 25 N TCS 20 WSW SAD 40 W GBN 15 S TRM 30 S DAG 50 WSW SGU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE FROM SRN CA EWD TO THE SE STATES. WITHIN THIS SRN STREAM...TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. THE ERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE OZARKS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE WRN SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS AZ TO WRN NM LATE. ...AZ/NM TODAY TO W TX LATE TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED BAND OF ASCENT E THROUGH NE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NEAR YUMA HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS W/NW AZ. WEAK INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TODAY NEAR AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NM BY EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES...SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AZ TODAY. FARTHER E INTO TX...A WEAK SLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO W CENTRAL TX. INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LLJ MAY RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL TX INTO ERN NM. ...SE STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM SRN AL NWD TO MIDDLE TN AND CENTRAL KY...AND EWD ACROSS GA. INSTABILITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN QUITE LIMITED AND THE ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND THE INSTABILITY SOURCE REGION OVER THE GULF. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS AL/GA PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT IN PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM. ..THOMPSON.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 16:31:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 11:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501291634.j0TGY3Eo012266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291630 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 ESE GPT SEM ANB AHN 35 NNE CAE FAY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LAS CDC 4HV MTJ TAD DHT LBB HOB 4CR SAD GBN TRM DAG LAS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS OVER THE UNITED STATES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM IS OVER MO/AR. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY...WITH UVVS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY POSING A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AL/FL INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. WARM FRONT DELINEATING NORTHERN EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE LIES JUST OFF THE FL/AL COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STAY OFFSHORE TODAY...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. HOWEVER...SMALL SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING NEAR MOB/PNS. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH A POTENTIAL OF STRONGER CELLS BECOMING ELEVATED AND MOVING INLAND. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED HAIL. ...AZ... SECOND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTHERN NV. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN UT/NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. POCKET OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF HAIL IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ..HART.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 29 19:57:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 14:57:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501292000.j0TK0Gt8003776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291956 SWODY1 SPC AC 291954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 60 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 W PNS 30 WSW TOI LGC 25 WSW AHN 25 SE SPA 15 N FAY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ROW 20 N ALM 35 ENE SVC 35 S SAD 20 NNE TUS 20 S GBN 30 S BLH 40 NE TRM 55 ENE DAG 25 NNE LAS 20 WNW SGU 25 NNE BCE 30 S GJT 60 ENE GUC 35 ENE TAD 20 SSE CAO 50 WSW AMA 50 WSW LBB 25 N HOB 35 SE ROW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED-OFF LOW CURRENTLY NEAR LAS VEGAS WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAX PRESENT OVER SRN CA. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AZ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA AT 00Z SHOW LAPSE RATES AROUND OF 8.0 C/KM WITH 500 TEMPS AROUND -26 C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG ASCENT AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS GA SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE CONVECTION WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS A RELATIVELY STABLE AND COOL AIR MASS...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SC AND SRN NC OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 00:51:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 19:51:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501300054.j0U0sGgf018276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300052 SWODY1 SPC AC 300050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PFN 30 NE MAI 45 E MCN 20 SSW CAE 25 SW FAY 10 W HSE ...CONT... DAB 60 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ALM 35 SE SAD 30 W GBN 15 NNE BLH 30 W EED 55 SW P38 50 NW MLF 40 WNW PUC 35 N GJT 45 ESE ASE PUB 20 SSE CAO 50 WSW AMA 50 WSW LBB HOB 45 ESE ALM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... 00Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID-UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NRN AZ WITH A FEW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW FROM UT AND INTO AZ/NM. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS LOW/INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER LOW MOVES EWD INTO NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PER 90+ KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST S OF U.S. BORDER...IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER SRN AZ INTO NM. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NELY SURFACE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NWRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE HAS MAINTAINED A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITING AN E-W SURFACE FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF FROM MOVING INLAND. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA... AND THEN NEWD ALONG THE GA TO NC COASTS. HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY...JUST OFF THE SC COAST BY 06Z. THIS LOW SHOULD THEN TRACK NEWD TO ALONG THE NC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 05:50:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 00:50:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501300553.j0U5rI4x030494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300551 SWODY1 SPC AC 300549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VCT 35 WNW ALI 15 S LRD ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 40 ESE JCT 30 SSW TPL 55 N HOU 20 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 15 E GSB 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PGA 50 SE CNY 35 E ASE 20 NW PUB 15 NNE CAO 65 E AMA 35 SW CDS 30 NNW HOB 15 NNW SVC 45 E PHX 20 N PRC 20 WNW PGA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AND SWRN CANADA TODAY...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM ELONGATION OF LARGE SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM NRN BAJA TO THE GREAT LAKES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WITH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN STATES. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST...TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL PHASE WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE EACH SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC/NC IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NC AND ALONG A COASTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY SWD TO FAR ERN SC. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA PER 30 KT SLY LLJ OVER ERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION TO WEST TX... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THIS AREA AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE TROUGH SHEARS EWD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WWD OVER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WEAK SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS WEAK INSTABILITY. ...SRN AND SERN TX... SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM DEEP S TX EWD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD NOT MOVE TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OVER THIS REGION BENEATH FLAT UPPER RIDGE. NELY SURFACE FLOW NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE...MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INITIALLY ORIENTED OVER WRN TX WILL VEER THROUGH THE DAY SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTION ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN TX. THIS CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHTNING STRIKES. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AS SUGGESTED BY ETA/ETAKF AND SREF MODELS. ..PETERS.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 12:46:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 07:46:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501301249.j0UCn7SV004840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301247 SWODY1 SPC AC 301245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 60 ENE JCT 35 NE ACT 25 S GGG 20 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ILM 25 NNW EWN 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PGA 30 ENE 4BL 45 WNW ALS 25 WNW TAD 15 SSW CAO 65 E AMA 40 SW CDS 40 SSE CVS 30 ESE ONM 15 SSE SOW 25 WNW INW 35 E PGA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM AREA TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SW IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS - ONE DIGGING SLOWLY SSWWD OVER NRN BAJA AND ANOTHER EJECTING EWD FROM NM TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE NM TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY TONIGHT WHILE MOVING EWD INTO A WEAK CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME N/NW OF THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER WRN TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS NM. ...S CENTRAL AND SE TX AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A WAA REGIME IS DEVELOPING OVER S/SE TX THIS MORNING TO THE N OF A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT NWD CLOSER TO THE TX COAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT ACROSS DEEP S TX. GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED S OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL INVERSION IN THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING...AND LITTLE OR NO FORCING FOR ASCENT. ...ERN NC AREA THIS MORNING... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INVOF ERN NC...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-LATE MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS ERN NC...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDING BEFORE MIDDAY. ..THOMPSON.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 16:31:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 11:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501301633.j0UGXxIY022522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301631 SWODY1 SPC AC 301629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 35 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT JCT ACT 10 NNW GGG 30 WNW POE 15 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW 4BL CEZ 40 N ALS TAD CAO TCC ONM 60 ESE SOW INW 65 SSW 4BL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS MORNING...WITH POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER AZ/NM. DAYTIME HEATING MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ...TX... INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ..HART.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 30 19:33:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 14:33:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501301935.j0UJZsNP001703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301933 SWODY1 SPC AC 301932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 20 SE JCT 25 S SEP 20 S DAL 20 N TYR 35 SE GGG 35 WNW POE 15 SSE BPT ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 40 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL TX. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY AID THE INITIATION OF A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE JET GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO EAST TX LATE TONIGHT. ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NWD AWAY FROM THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TX...QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NOT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 01/30/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 31 00:52:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 19:52:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200501310055.j0V0t3HP010549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310052 SWODY1 SPC AC 310050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 40 SSW ALI 70 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 WSW COT 45 SE JCT 15 WSW FTW 40 SW DUA 20 ESE PRX 50 ESE SHV 15 E POE 35 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX TO WRN LA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NM WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SHEARS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WAA REMAINING THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM DEEP S TX NEWD INTO THE NWRN AND NRN GULF...WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM MFE TO AUS TO PRX TO SERN OK. DESPITE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM DEEP S TX NNEWD TO ERN OK PER LATE AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY...EMBEDDED TSTMS WERE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA WHERE THE 35 KT SLY LLJ INTERSECTED AN E-W ORIENTED 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT OVER NRN TX. THIS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE SSEWD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LLJ VEERING TO SWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ENEWD. THUS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP SSEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND WRN LA WITHIN STRONGEST WAA. ...WEST CENTRAL TX... A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED AFTER 23Z NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER. THESE STORMS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE UVVS WERE MAXIMIZED AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY LOW WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUING TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING AND DECREASING WAA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AFTER 02Z. GIVEN THE SMALL COVERAGE AREA AND SHORT DURATION OF A SEVERE AND GENERAL TSTM THREAT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ADDED FOR THIS AREA. ..PETERS.. 01/31/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.