[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010052
SWODY1
SPC AC 010050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW ELY 55 E ELY 40
SW PUC 25 SE U17 45 NNW INW 25 NNW PRC 25 SSE IGM 20 S LAS 50 NNE
DRA 65 SW ELY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NV...UT AND AZ...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NV INTO WRN UT AND
FAR NWRN AZ. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS REGION AND THROUGH MEAN
RIDGE POSITION. 00Z DESERT ROCK SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND A SBCAPE OF AROUND 250
J/KG. GIVEN THESE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS EWD INTO UT AND NRN AZ. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS OWING TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES.

ELSEWHERE...00Z DULLES SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SOME
INSTABILITY FROM AROUND 550 TO 400 MB WITHIN A PORTION OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE EXHIBITING SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST OVER
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WHERE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING IS COINCIDENT
WITH SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES /PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/.

FINALLY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED OVER
NERN ORE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AREA.
00Z BOI SOUNDING DID INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY WAS QUITE MARGINAL. THOUGH A FEW STRIKES MAY WELL
CONTINUE TO PORTIONS OF THE ID PNHDL TONIGHT....OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN GENERAL THUNDER AREA.

..MEAD.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.