[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210103
SWODY1
SPC AC 210101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
FYV 30 S TBN 35 SSE SPI 15 SSE MTO 45 NNW EVV 25 W HOP 30 ESE MEM 20
W ELD 40 SSE PGO 40 NW FYV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 25 NE MER
15 E EDW 15 ESE CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW U28 25 WNW CAG
20 SSW 4FC 25 SW PUB 25 NE LVS 10 ESE 4CR 30 NE SOW 20 ESE PGA 20 NW
U28.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GLS 20 SW PRX 25
NW MLC 15 ENE DHT 45 WNW EHA 55 W GCK 25 ENE CNU 35 S SZL 40 WNW SPI
35 SSE CGX DTW 20 SE ERI 20 NW HGR 20 N GSO 35 N LGC 40 E MEI 35 S
MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY SRN CA

...PORTIONS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS EVENING
WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EWD
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IND/OH. SECONDARY...MORE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT
EXTENDED SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WRN IL AND THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL AR
BEFORE BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED OVER CNTRL MS/AL.
MEANWHILE...PRIMARY TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD INTO CNTRL KS
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT/ FROM W-CNTRL
IL SWWD ACROSS NRN OK. FINALLY...WEAK DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM  E OF
VIH SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N-CNTRL TX E OF THE METROPLEX.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY TRIED TO INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OR SECONDARY
WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SRN MO. INSPECTION OF 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SO FAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF SRN MO/AR INTO THE WRN TN
VALLEY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. 

...SRN CA COAST...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS
VORTICITY CENTER/MID-LEVEL LOW /NEAR 33.5N AND 126.5W/ BEGINNING TO
TRANSLATE MORE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR
PROFILES.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SMALL TSTM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER THE OK PNHDL
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND QUITE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR /PER 00Z AMA SOUNDING/.
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NWRN OK...PRIOR TO
COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LATER TONIGHT.

..MEAD.. 02/21/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.