[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201226
SWODY1
SPC AC 201224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGO
FYV COU DEC BMG HOP UOX ELD TXK PGO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI MER EDW 45
S RAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P38 PUC EGE 45 W ALS
GUP INW PRC LAS P38.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FTW MLC CNU BIE FOD
LNR MBS BUF AVP DCA 45 NNE RDU LGC ESF 35 NNE VCT SAT 45 ENE JCT
FTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...

BAND OF MODERATELY FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TN VALLEY. 
MEANWHILE...DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM KS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  LARGE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM TX/OK INTO NY/PA AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NAM/RUC/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE WARM
FRONT THAT NOW LIES ACROSS AR/MS WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF 50S DEWPOINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. 
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE RUC/NAM REGARDING THE
EXTENT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SOLUTION
APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BL MIXING AND EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.  THE RUC SEEMS TO BE MORE
REALISTIC...MAINTAINING A CAPPING INVERSION AND SOME CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEST EDGE OF STRATUS DECK WILL LIE
ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON.  POINTS EAST OF
THIS LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...INSUFFICIENT TO
BREAK THE CAP UNTIL STRONGER UPPER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER DARK. ONCE
UVVS INCREASE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO EASTERN AR.  MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.  COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL AID IN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO AR/TX APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE.  IF
THE NAM BL FORECAST SCENARIO IS CORRECT...STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS /PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN
AR INTO SOUTHERN IL.

..HART.. 02/20/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.