[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180557
SWODY1
SPC AC 180556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 50 ESE RBL
55 N BIH 30 NE P38 30 NNW DRO 10 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 35 SE GDP 50 W
MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TODAY AS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST DE-AMPLIFIES...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NRN BC AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE BC
TROUGH MOVING SWD WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE
PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES.

...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
GRADUAL COOLING AT MID LEVELS AS THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW MOVES
EWD...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS CA FROM THE
BASE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA
TODAY. SOME SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SHOULD AID
IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG.  25-30 KT OF SWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN THREATS.

..PETERS.. 02/18/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.