[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170557
SWODY1
SPC AC 170555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL
20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH
CZZ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CANADA / THE U.S. WHILE AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS
OFF THE CA COAST.  WITH COOL / STABLE AIRMASS HAVING SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FRONT...MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.

...CA...
VARIOUS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/AROUND 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACCORDING TO NAM ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...FAIRLY COLD /-20 TO -22 C/ TEMPS AT
MID LEVELS SPREADING INLAND COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIMITED HEATING WOULD SUGGEST SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS THIS REGION.

LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF CA...WITH
NO WELL-DEFINED DOWNSTREAM FEATURE ALOFT EVIDENT ATTM WITHIN
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...SUFFICIENT UVV SHOULD EXIST TO
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  

THOUGH SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION APPEARS ATTM TO BE TOO
MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT...SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 02/17/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.