From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 05:43:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 00:43:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502010546.j115kXn5005533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010544 SWODY1 SPC AC 010542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 25 NE MFE 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 25 SE FST 25 SE SJT 15 SSW MWL 10 S DAL 50 WSW TYR 40 E CLL 45 NE HOU 15 SW HEZ 15 SSW LUL 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL BE EJECTED EWD TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS ORE/ NRN NV...CONTINUES TO DIG SWD TOWARD THE SWRN STATES. MEANWHILE... NWRN MEXICO SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD REACHING CENTRAL TX BY 00Z...AND THEN OVER AR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. NNELY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NWRN AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF. ...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... WEAK SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF LA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN WAA REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS/SWRN AL. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES EWD...WAA CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN TX AT 12Z TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE NWRN MEXICO TROUGH...WITH WAA INCREASING OVER THIS REGION. WAA PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR AN INCREASING TREND IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL TO SERN TX. THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE/DEVELOP NEWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 75 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS OVER THIS REGION AND LLJ VEERS. ELEVATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITHIN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA THIS PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 12:55:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 07:55:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502011258.j11CwpH5010703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011255 SWODY1 SPC AC 011254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 25 NE MFE 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 ESE FST 40 NNW SJT 35 NW SEP 35 WNW TYR 10 SW SHV 25 SW JAN 35 SSE MEI 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD OVER TX BY THIS EVENING AND LA/AR LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING SWD OVER NV/CA. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING FROM S CENTRAL TO SE TX IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA...WHILE MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG BASED FROM 850-700 MB IS SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD FROM TX AND THE NW GULF EWD/NEWD ACROSS SRN LA/MS/AL. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER W FROM THE BIG BEND NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE MID LEVELS /600-400 MB/. AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /NEAR OR JUST S OF THE LA COAST / IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF RAINFALL INTO THE EXISTING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS INLAND...AND THE DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY LATER TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 16:30:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 11:30:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502011635.j11GZOhc005268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011631 SWODY1 SPC AC 011629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 15 N MFE 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SW MRF FST SJT SEP SHV MLU MEI 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX THIS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA/MS. PRIMARY WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST OFFSHORE...LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NORTHWEST... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX. ..HART.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 19:28:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 14:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502011931.j11JVTUM013988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011929 SWODY1 SPC AC 011927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 30 NNE LRD 45 NE DRT 20 NNE JCT 35 ESE BWD 35 NE ACT 25 W SHV 20 WNW MLU 40 NW JAN 25 WNW MEI 40 SE MEI 45 NE MOB 30 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ASCENT AND MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. EARLIER ACTIVITY LINKED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN LA DIMINISHED RAPIDLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. STORMS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ELEVATED IN NATURE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 00:56:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 19:56:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502020059.j120xKmK005045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020057 SWODY1 SPC AC 020055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 45 ESE LRD 50 S SAT 25 NNW SAT 50 WNW TPL 35 NE ACT 20 SSE GGG 35 NNE MLU 20 S GWO 20 S 0A8 45 WSW TOI 50 NNW PNS 30 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE TX TO LWR MS VLY... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER/VWP DATA ATTM SHOW UPR LOW ON THE CO/NM BORDER EDGING SLOWLY E...WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER W TX LIFTS NEWD AT A SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID RATE TOWARD THE N CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO SE OK/SW AR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS E INTO NW OK. AT LOWER LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL FL WNW INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE CNTRL LA CST. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INVOF THE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION...AND THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NE INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG 925/850 MB FRONT OVER SE TX TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD E/NE INTO NRN LA/CNTRL MS BY MORNING. FARTHER SE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER EXTREME SE LA DURING THE 09-12Z PERIOD AS GULF SURFACE WAVE NEARS REGION. DEEP SW TO WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OVER SRN LA BY MORNING AS 70 KT SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TX SPEED MAX ENTERS NW LA. BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES...ABSENCE OF SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED COOL...LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE FLOW FROM RAIN AREA OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER SE LA SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 05:29:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502020531.j125VpPs019025@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020529 SWODY1 SPC AC 020527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE JAX 30 S CTY ...CONT... 40 W HUM 30 WSW MCB 25 NW JAN 15 WSW TUP 15 SE CSV 25 SW 5I3 15 NNE PSK 15 WSW GSO 30 E CAE 25 E CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD... DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE ALONG THE N PACIFIC CST. AS RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NWRN STATES...EXPECT UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN NM/SRN CO TO SHEAR SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN MO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT... BEFORE REACHING CNTRL KY BY 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER SW...IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD SETTLE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN BAJA. AT LOWER LEVELS...CURRENT SURFACE DATA AND THE 00Z GFS/NAM OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR BVE IN EXTREME SE LA AT 12Z. WHILE THE WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NE TO NEAR MOB BY MIDDAY...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD WEAKEN AS /1/ UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NWD INTO MO...AND /2/ THE FEATURE ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT INFLOW OF COOL...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE ERN GULF CST. ...EXTREME SE LA AND CNTRL GULF CST... A LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER EXTREME SE LA...INVOF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NE TO THE MS/AL AND WRN FL GULF CST TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE AMPLE /50 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF SURFACE HEATING. THUS...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 12:43:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 07:43:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502021246.j12CkCkR021480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021243 SWODY1 SPC AC 021241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 35 ESE MCB 35 E MEI 30 SSW ANB 30 SSW ATL 20 ENE MCN 60 SE MCN 35 E VLD 15 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE SWRN STATES...AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/SW...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING ENEWD OVER OK THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF NRN BAJA CA. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SE...ALONG AND SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM ERN OK TO THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR REMAINS OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NRN GULF...WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM THE NRN GULF ACROSS SE LA INTO SRN MS/AL WITHIN A BELT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 16:21:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 11:21:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502021624.j12GOYQS010056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021621 SWODY1 SPC AC 021619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 25 NW GPT 50 E MEI 45 SSW ANB 30 ENE LGC MCN 60 SE MCN 35 E VLD 15 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN OK IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN LA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...MOVING TO NEAR MOB BY THIS EVENING AND MAI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG SRN APPALACHIANS WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT NEWD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN BAND OF MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM SERN LA INTO SWRN AL...AND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL...NWRN FL AND GA WITHIN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COOL SURFACE LAYER. ..WEISS.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 19:44:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 14:44:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502021947.j12JlQ4Y000606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021944 SWODY1 SPC AC 021943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 25 NW GPT 50 E MEI 45 SSW ANB 30 ENE LGC MCN 60 SE MCN 35 E VLD 15 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH... ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THIS SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. ..CARBIN.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 00:57:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 19:57:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502030100.j13107V5001993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030057 SWODY1 SPC AC 030055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 30 SSW MGM 40 SSW ANB 35 ENE ANB 30 WSW AHN 45 SW AGS 30 NNE AYS 35 N GNV PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN AL SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL... SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH PARTS OF SERN AL...CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET MOVE EWD. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA SHOW VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 100-300 J/KG. OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO SRN THROUGH CNTRL GA AND ERN AL WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 05:35:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 00:35:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502030538.j135cQa7006569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030536 SWODY1 SPC AC 030534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW VRB 25 W FMY ...CONT... 15 SSE PFN 10 SW ABY 30 ENE MCN 35 S SPA 35 E CLT 10 NNE FAY 35 SE OAJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL...ERN GA AND SC... POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SWWD EXTENTION OF ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM ERN GA NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH THE DAY. OTHER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 12:51:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 07:51:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502031254.j13CsZjX030455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031253 SWODY1 SPC AC 031251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 30 NNW PIE ...CONT... 10 S PFN 20 WSW ABY 45 SSE AHN 40 ESE AND 40 NNE CAE 15 NW FLO CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER TN/KY WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND THEN SEWD TO OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ACROSS N FL AND GA. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS N FL/GA/SC THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 16:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 11:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502031621.j13GLaDN012309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031619 SWODY1 SPC AC 031617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD AND OFF THE GA/NERN FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SWD INTO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT. COOLING MID LEVELS AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT NO MORE THAN A SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 19:33:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 14:33:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502031936.j13JaObu027077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031933 SWODY1 SPC AC 031931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN FL... COLD FRONT IS MAKING SWD PROGRESS INTO NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ONLY GIVES AROUND 150 J/KG MUCAPE GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT TSTM PROBABILITIES FOR A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK. ..RACY.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 00:35:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 19:35:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502040038.j140cKJp029085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040036 SWODY1 SPC AC 040034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND MIAMI SHOW POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY SHALLOW LAYERS OF WEAK INSTABILITY. FURTHER STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 05:27:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502040529.j145Tld5010502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040527 SWODY1 SPC AC 040526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI SEA 10 SE AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 30 NNW PHX 35 SSW INW 25 NE SOW 75 NE SAD 60 SSW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN AZ... CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AS MID LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SRN AZ AND NM. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING COLDER AIR ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. ...NW WA... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER... MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 12:54:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 07:54:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502041257.j14CvTdT008986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041255 SWODY1 SPC AC 041253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06 45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 15 NE GBN 65 WSW SOW 40 E SOW 50 WNW TCS 20 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUING FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF CANADA. UPPER LOW IN SRN STREAM...NOW OFF THE BAJA CA CST...SHOULD LIFT NEWD INTO NW MEXICO AS NRN IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING THE WA CST SWEEPS E INTO THE NRN RCKYS. DRY AND/OR AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AT LWR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE RCKYS. ...AZ/NM... THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK /PER WV IMAGERY/ THAT ROTATED AROUND BAJA UPPER LOW IN THE LAST 24 HRS. THE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD BEYOND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS /DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F/ W OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. A SIMILAR BAND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NRN MEXICO AS ANOTHER SPEED MAX LIFTS NE IN ERN QUADRANT OF LOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SE AZ/SW NM WITH SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. IN THE MEANTIME...DIURNAL HEATING AND MODEST OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS OVER SRN AZ. ...PAC NW... CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEEPEN OVER WRN WA TODAY AS PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 25C/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION/ POSSIBLE THUNDER AS PASSAGE OF ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND ALLOWS FOR SURFACE HEATING LATER TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD AS FAR E AS FAR NRN ID TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 16:15:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 11:15:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502041618.j14GIOKk017713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041615 SWODY1 SPC AC 041614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06 45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 55 NW TUS 50 W SAD 45 WNW SVC 15 NW DMN 40 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL BAJA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN NEWD BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO PAC NW. OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SONORA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX/IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD AROUND CUT-OFF LOW. LIGHTNING IS ON THE DECREASE ATTM AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TUS/EPZ THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO CONUS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO SERN AZ/SWRN CORNER NM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SERN AZ/SWRN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE PAC NW...ACCOMPANIED BY MDT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE COLD FRONT WWD TO UPPER TROUGH LINE. COLD FRONT AT 15Z WAS LOCATED ALONG W SLOPES OF CASCADES AND WILL REACH NWRN MT BY 00Z. ..HALES.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 19:31:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 14:31:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502041934.j14JYJUF000947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041932 SWODY1 SPC AC 041930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06 45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 55 NW TUS 50 W SAD 45 WNW SVC 15 NW DMN 40 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW... VSBL SATL SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING/MOVING ONSHORE WITH TALLEST CLOUDS VCNTY OLYMPICS AND IN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TSTMS AS COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION. TSTM RISK WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL END FROM WEST-EAST LATER TONIGHT AS WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES. ...SWRN STATES... UPPER LOW VCNTY BAJA SPUR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM CONVEYOR IS TRANSPORTING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO AZ/NM WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BECOMING EVIDENT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER. AS MOISTENING CONTINUES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH SONORA...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 00:46:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 19:46:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502050048.j150miCl013038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050047 SWODY1 SPC AC 050045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 15 ESE 63S 35 SSE 4OM 35 WNW EAT 15 NE OLM 15 SW HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 45 WNW TUS 45 NE TUS 20 SE SAD 25 SSW SVC 30 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN AZ THROUGH EXTREME SWRN NM... ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH NERN PORTION OF BAJA CUTOFF LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SRN AZ AND SWRN NM. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN S OF THE U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...NRN WA... SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND INTO WA STATE AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE UNDERNEATH MOIST ONSHORE WLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE NRN CASCADES. ..DIAL.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 05:36:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 00:36:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502050538.j155cZ4T003540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050536 SWODY1 SPC AC 050535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S GBN 15 NE PHX 35 SW INW 60 NE INW 45 SSW FMN 10 WNW 4SL 25 WSW LVS 50 WSW TCC 40 S CVS 35 SE HOB 35 ENE FST 25 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAJA AREA IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH SRN EXTENTION OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AZ DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF AZ AND NM AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...SRN PLAINS... OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER W TX WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX...N TX AND OK SATURDAY NIGHT. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN 10% COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..DIAL.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 15:41:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 10:41:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502051544.j15FiNqG028486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051540 SWODY1 SPC AC 051539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF BAJA IN THE PROCESS OF BEING KICKED NEWD AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND BY 12Z SUNDAY WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WHILE EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE TROPICAL ERN PAC...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE E OF SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO. A VERY COOL/STABLE RETURN FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS MEXICO INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL THRU TONIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE DROPPED THE EARLIER THUNDER FORECAST AS ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE REQUIRED 10 PERCENT COVERAGE. ..HALES.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 19:31:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 14:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502051933.j15JXwuE017258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051931 SWODY1 SPC AC 051930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BAJA UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. WARM CONVEYOR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND SRN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-TROPICAL NATURE TO THE CONVEYOR IS LIMITING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD LIGHTNING. MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE WARM CONVEYOR...STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED TSTMS ACROSS NRN SONORA/WRN CHIHUAHUA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM BORDER...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE THEY CROSS INTO THE UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...A TSTM-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED CONUS-WIDE. ..RACY.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 00:38:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 19:38:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502060041.j160f5FD028244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060038 SWODY1 SPC AC 060036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DUG 40 SSW SVC 50 SSE TCS 45 SE ALM 10 NE GDP 50 SE GDP MRF 65 S MRF 70 S MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS MEXICO WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS OF NRN MEXICO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD TOWARD WEST TX TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS SHOULD CROSS THE BORDER INTO SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 16:08:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 11:08:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502061611.j16GBJEM008887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061607 SWODY1 SPC AC 061606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX 50 N VCT 25 NNE AUS 15 NE FTW 15 SE MKO 30 N FYV SGF 25 SSE TBN 40 NNW POF 20 ESE POF 30 ESE PBF 25 WNW ESF 30 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 60 NNW SVC 20 WSW ABQ 15 SSE LVS 45 SE CVS 35 ESE HOB 40 WSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION WRN U.S. STRONG IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY THIS AM CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE WEAKER IMPULSES UPSTREAM...LOCATED OVER SWRN NM AND SRN CA WILL ALSO ROTATE E/NEWD IN STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. MORE VIGOROUS S/WV VICINITY VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL DROP SEWD INTO OR TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SRN PLAINS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ERN TX BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN MO OVERNIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE A CONCERN FOR A SEVERE THREAT. COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...MDT LAPSE RATES AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS...SUPPORT MAINTAINING A PRIMARILY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM AREA SRN HALF OF NM AND FAR SW TX. WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INSTABILITY WITH TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS PAC NW HAVE DROPPED THE EARLIER THUNDER FORECAST W OF CASCADES. ..HALES.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 19:34:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 14:34:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502061936.j16Jah8W016946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061934 SWODY1 SPC AC 061932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX 50 N VCT 25 NNE AUS 15 NE FTW 15 SE MKO 30 N FYV SGF 25 SSE TBN 40 NNW POF 20 ESE POF 30 ESE PBF 25 WNW ESF 30 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W DUG 35 N TUS 60 WSW SOW 50 ENE SOW 35 ESE GNT 15 SSE LVS 45 SE CVS 35 ESE HOB 40 WSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E TX TO OZARKS... CONVERGENT BAND AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE OZARKS AT MID-AFTERNOON. LLJ IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NEWD AS FIRST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATES INTO THE CORN BELT. MOST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS VLY THIS EVENING... WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS FARTHER S. ISOLD TSTMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING... BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE NEARING FAR W TX AND CHIHUAHUA WILL TURN NEWD OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD TOWARD ERN TX AND OZARKS BY 12Z. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND ISOLD TSTMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN TX INTO SERN OK...AR AND SRN MO LATER TONIGHT. ...SRN ROCKIES... COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ATOP STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW DIURNAL TSTMS. ..RACY.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 7 00:54:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 19:54:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502070057.j170v6pT020288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070054 SWODY1 SPC AC 070053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CLL 25 WNW CLL 35 ESE ACT 10 E DUA MLC 25 SE MKO FSM 45 WNW HOT 30 ENE TXK 35 E LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 NE HOU 30 W HOU 40 SSW CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELP 45 NNW ELP 15 NNE TCS 35 N ONM 20 ESE SAF 40 ESE LVS 25 N CVS 60 N HOB 10 NW HOB 15 S CNM 35 ENE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND CNTRL NM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SRN NM. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND SFC HEATING ARE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF CNTRL AND SRN NM. AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ...EAST TX/SE OK/SW AR.. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN NM AND WEST TX WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THIS EVENING...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX. MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN AR MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..BROYLES.. 02/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 05:18:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 00:18:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502120521.j1C5LnFF025914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120519 SWODY1 SPC AC 120517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW YUM 55 WSW EED 35 SE LAS 55 SSE SGU FMN 4SL 45 NNE 4CR 45 WSW CVS CVS DHT HLC BIE P35 IRK ALN BNA HSV CBM 35 SSE BPT ...CONT... 25 ESE CRP 35 SSW ALI 35 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH NOW MOVING ONSHORE SRN CA AND BAJA. EXPECT THIS PERTURBATION TO MOVE ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION AND SRN ROCKIES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...SUBSEQUENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER SRN PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER MO/TN RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT SFC CYCLOGENESIS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK/KS/MO. AS SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS KS...PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NRN/WRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BOUNDARY LAYER SLYS IN MODIFIED CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR MASS RETURNING FROM GULF WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD THROUGHOUT AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK. ...SRN/ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS NWRN GULF -- SHOULD WARM TO MID 50S/LOW 60S RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS CONTINUES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MUCAPES THROUGH PERIOD...WITH MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATING 500-700 J/KG ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN TX BY END OF PERIOD. EXPECT CAPPING TO LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE SFC MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK IN LOOSE BAND FROM S TX NEWD TOWARD WRN TN. 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE PARCEL SRH 150-300 J/KG INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS TO ROTATE...ENHANCING HAIL PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY NEAREST TO GULF MOISTURE SOURCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCOMPLETENESS OF RETURN FLOW AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. RELATIVE MIN IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN SOME CORRIDOR FROM W-CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK -- SURROUNDED BUT NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY HIGHER ELEVATION HEATING FARTHER W...WARM-FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FARTHER NE...AND OPTIMAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER E AND S. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FORCING TO OUTLINE A THUNDER-FREE HOLE WITHIN BROADER GEN TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGHOUT PERIOD...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD PERMIT OCCASIONAL TSTMS WITHIN WARM FRONTAL PRECIP BAND. PARCELS MAY BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC AMIDST ELEVATED MUCAPES 50-200 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN OVER SRN/ERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN MO AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS NRN OK DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AFTER DARK...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE AS FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS MO/AR AND WRN/MID TN. LACK OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL MINIMAL. ..EDWARDS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 12:41:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 07:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502121244.j1CCitj8027268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121242 SWODY1 SPC AC 121241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 35 SSW ALI 35 S LRD ...CONT... 20 SW YUM 55 WSW EED 35 SE LAS 35 N PGA 35 SSE ALS 60 WSW TCC 35 NNE CNM 40 WSW ABI 30 WSW SPS 40 NE AMA 35 ENE LBL EMP 35 SSE SZL 20 WSW POF 30 WNW MEM 35 S GLH 40 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHIFT ENEWD. THOUGH BAND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AS POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP UNDER -18C TO -20C MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWLY H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE OZARK REGION WITH LLJ AXIS EXTENDING FROM ERN TX INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN/SERN TX...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY STRONG/ORGANIZED AS STORMS REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AVAILABLE MUCAPE REMAINS AOB 500 J/KG. ..EVANS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 16:23:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 11:23:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502121626.j1CGQPPq025017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121623 SWODY1 SPC AC 121622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 NNW PHX 35 S GCN 45 ENE GCN 45 N GUP 40 ENE GNT 35 SSE ROW 60 NW BGS 35 ENE LBB 55 WNW CSM 45 SSW P28 25 NNW BVO 15 SE JLN 35 ENE HRO 25 NE LIT 30 ESE ELD 30 SSW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO TODAY...AND THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER SPEED MAX /NOW S OF ELP/ EJECTS NEWD OVER W TX AND OK. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SPEED MAX ACROSS SW/CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO OK TODAY...WHERE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 F IN A NARROW RIBBON ACROSS THE WRN GULF...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE TX COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE MOISTURE AXIS BY LATE TONIGHT AS FAR N AS ERN OK/AR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK/AR/NW LA AS THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND PERHAPS WRN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/THERMAL TROUGH. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME DEEP CONVECTION/A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS BY LATE EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 19:48:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 14:48:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502121951.j1CJpc1L027788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121949 SWODY1 SPC AC 121947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 N GBN 30 S PRC 15 W INW 35 S GUP 15 NE TCS 30 SSE ROW 60 NW BGS 35 ENE LBB 55 WNW CSM 45 SSW P28 25 NNW BVO 15 SE JLN 35 ENE HRO 25 NE LIT 30 ESE ELD 30 SSW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER SERN CO WILL ALSO MOVE / DEVELOP EWD...REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS / OK BY 13/12Z. ...AZ / NM... COOLEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ / NM THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THIS REGION... BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EVIDENT ATTM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK HEATING MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ANY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH / COLD POCKET SHIFTS EWD AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES. ...TX / OK AND VICINITY... MOISTURE RETURN FROM A PARTIALLY-MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO IS EVIDENT ATTM ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX...WHERE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS ARE INDICATED. AS DEVELOPING LOW OVER SERN CO SHIFTS ESEWD...CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM NEAR SRN FRINGES OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD...INDICATIVE OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASINGLY-COOL MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED / MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX / OK AND PERHAPS SWRN MO / WRN PORTIONS OF AR AND LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 00:51:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 19:51:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502130054.j1D0scSM023531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130052 SWODY1 SPC AC 130050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 10 WNW SAD 10 WNW PHX 30 S FLG 30 NE INW 25 W SAF 30 SSE SAF 30 NW ROW 45 ESE GDP 35 SSW INK 45 S MAF 20 NW SJT 20 NE BWD 30 SW ADM 25 SE OKC 25 W PNC 50 E ICT 50 S SZL 30 N UNO 60 WSW MEM 40 N HEZ 30 SSE LCH ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 30 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY OVERNIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS ADVECTING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS INTO CNTRL TX AT 00Z. GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...OWING TO ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. PRIND THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITHIN THE BROAD WARM CONVEYOR FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK AND SRN KS. THE TSTM THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND PERHAPS THE LOWER MS VLY BY 12Z. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE HAIL. MORE SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL NOT ARRIVE/EVOLVE UNTIL BEYOND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. ...SRN ROCKIES... COLD POCKET ALOFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. BUT...ISOLD LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NM AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX. ..RACY.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 05:34:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 00:34:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502130538.j1D5cCko027457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130536 SWODY1 SPC AC 130535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX VCT 25 WSW CLL 30 SW TXK 10 S TBN 25 NNW MDH 30 E PAH 35 NNW TCL 30 WSW SEM 15 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 40 N JCT MWL 30 N MLC 20 E JLN 40 NNE SZL 20 N UIN 15 N BMI 15 SE LAF 10 NE BWG 35 ENE HSV 30 S AUO 25 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE CRP 60 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CTB 20 ENE GTF 15 NE BTM 30 E S80 30 ENE ALW 25 WSW YKM 30 NW HQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST NWD INTO THE LOWER OH/MS VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VLY/MIDWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LEAD IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM OK TO IL BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGS SEWD ACROSS TX TOWARD THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER SWRN KS WILL MOVE INTO WRN MO BY 18Z SUNDAY AND THEN TURN NEWD TOWARD CHICAGO BY 06Z MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH S OF THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...TO THE OZARKS AND E TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE MS VLY AND WRN GULF BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. ...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH... WARM CONVEYOR SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE OH/TN VLYS EARLY SUNDAY WITH A DRY SLOT...NOW OBSERVED OVER OK...MOVING EWD INTO THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S AS FAR N AS SRN MO. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BUT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO UNSTABLE OWING TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME...WITH NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROBABLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE WITH SBCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LEAD WAVE SKIRTS THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT TSTMS WILL INITIATE FROM SCNTRL MO INTO AR BY 21Z. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO MATURE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35+ KTS THROUGH EVENING. THIS COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR... MAINLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST...NAMELY ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN MO INTO NRN/CNTRL AR DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH AND TN VLYS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER SYSTEM BECOME REMOVED FROM THE THETA-E AXIS. ...CNTRL/WRN GULF COASTAL AREA... A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN TX AND SRN LA. AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT OF HIGH QUALITY...SO THERMAL BUOYANCY IS APT TO REMAIN WEAK...AOB 1000 J/KG AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF DEEP UVV...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LLJ BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NWD EARLY IN THE DAY...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA SUNDAY. INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER STRONG EAST OF THE MS RVR WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THUS...TSTMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN. ..RACY.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 12:27:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 07:27:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502131231.j1DCV3xR004745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131228 SWODY1 SPC AC 131227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 55 SE AUS 40 E TPL 45 N HOT 30 NNE UNO 40 WNW CGI 30 S PAH 40 WSW CBM 30 WSW SEM 15 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 40 N JCT 30 NNW PRX 25 WSW FYV 35 W JEF 50 SSE P35 15 SSW OTM 15 N BMI 20 ENE HUF 10 NE BWG 35 ENE HSV 30 S AUO 25 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE CRP 60 WNW MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF TWO OR MORE DISTINCT VORT MAXIMA. LEADING SYSTEM NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHILE SECONDARY SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER TX. SURFACE LOW OVER KS ATTM WILL LIFT NNEWD INTO NRN IL BY THIS EVENING /ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL MO/AR/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP STEADILY NNEWD ACROSS ERN TX/LA INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S INTO NRN AR/SRN MO/FAR WRN TN AND THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...AR/SERN MO/WRN TN... H5 TEMPS FROM -16C TO -18C AND MODEST HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LATEST RUC SUGGEST SBCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AT 21Z...THOUGH WARM LAYER NEAR H85 MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER UVV ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. EXTREME SHEAR WITH SRH AOA 250 M2/S2 IN THE LOWER KM/S SUGGESTS SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE ORGANIZED AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA REGION LATER TODAY. EXTENT OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKENING INSTABILITY AFTER DARK...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY HAVE A NARROW WINDOW IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME LATER TODAY. ...ERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM DIGS ESEWD INTO BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER OVER THE WESTERN GULF BASIN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT PERSISTENT MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AS COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION /H5 TEMPS FROM -16C TO -18C/...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. THUS...INITIAL STORMS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. IN ADDITION...PLUME OF CONVECTION NOW OVER SERN TX/SWRN TX WILL LIKELY SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND THUS INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODIFIED 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN TX BY 21Z. STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...OR INCREASE WITHIN TRAILING PORTION OF BAND OF CONVECTION NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA AS SURFACE-BASED CIN DIMINISHES. THOUGH SSWLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT SHEAR...LENGTH OF SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AIDS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ..EVANS.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 16:34:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 11:34:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502131637.j1DGbcq0002523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131632 SWODY1 SPC AC 131630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 55 N VCT 40 NNW CLL 50 ESE FSM 10 N UNO 20 N POF 40 ESE POF 10 SSW DYR 30 NNE GLH 35 ENE MLU 20 SSE MLU 10 SSW ESF 30 NNE LFT 40 N MSY 30 WNW GPT 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 40 NNW ALI SAT 50 NW AUS 35 SSE DAL 15 NNW PGO 30 NW HRO 30 WNW TBN 20 NE COU 25 NE IRK 25 NNW BRL 25 WNW MMO 35 NW MIE 50 SE IND 35 W CHA 20 S AUO 25 NE AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E TX AND AR...AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE LA COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE WAVES IS MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ONE SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW EJECTING ENEWD FROM S CENTRAL TX...AND ANOTHER IS DIGGING ESEWD OVER W TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IN NE KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO LAKE MI BY EARLY MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE A TRAILING REMNANT LEE TROF/DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM CENTRAL TX AND ERN OK THIS MORNING TO WRN AR AND E TX TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM S CENTRAL TX...WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SE TX WILL PERSIST TODAY AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE NW GULF AND SW LA. MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SRN AND WRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING SE TX STORMS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM 60-64 F AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT WILL BE MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7-8 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18 C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FROM E TX NEWD INTO AR...ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES EARLY TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS E/SE OF THE GULF/LA RAIN BAND IS STILL MODIFYING BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS WITH TEMPERATURES 2-5 F COOLER THAN SST/S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. THE AIR MASS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY UNTIL TONIGHT NEAR COAST...WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..THOMPSON.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 19:54:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 14:54:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502131957.j1DJvnTB001044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131955 SWODY1 SPC AC 131953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 50 SE AUS 20 WNW CLL 50 ESE FSM 45 SSE HRO 45 SW ARG 60 W MEM 15 SW GLH 20 SSE MLU 10 SSW ESF 30 NNE LFT 40 N MSY 30 WNW GPT 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 15 W NIR 40 E SAT 20 SSE TPL 45 WNW TYR 20 WNW PGO 45 ESE SGF 30 S SPI BMG 30 W BHM 40 N CEW 10 ESE AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX / AR / LA... ...SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD WITH TIME...WHILE SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION / LOWER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX / ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... BAND OF SHOWERS / A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS LA INTO SERN TX ATTM. ALONG SWRN FRINGES OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND -- ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SERN TX / EXTREME SWRN LA...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AROUND 25 KT SFC-1 KM SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING SHOULD PERSIST WEST OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION...INVOF WEAK DRYLINE / TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SSWWD TOWARD ERN FRINGES OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ARE OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER TO YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED BASED ON APPEARANCE OF CU FIELD IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING TROUGH / DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH MOST LIKELY ZONE OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CLL NNEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD HOT. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WOULD SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 00:52:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 19:52:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502140055.j1E0tQid007051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140053 SWODY1 SPC AC 140051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CLL 10 E GGG 10 SSW TXK ELD 50 NW ESF 30 SSW POE 15 NNW BPT 35 NNW HOU 35 ESE CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 N PSX 25 E CLL 40 SSE TYR 35 SW TXK 55 N HOT 35 E HRO 20 SSE UNO 30 N DYR 25 SW GLH 25 E MLU 15 W HEZ 40 SE LUL 45 NW PNS 35 SE CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR... ...WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN TX PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MINUS 19C H5 TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ATOP A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE LOCATED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO E TX/WRN LA. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG A BOUNDARY E OF KCLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E...THERE MAY BE OTHER ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOP ACROSS E TX OR WRN LA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL NOT HAVE TO MOVE TOO FAR E BEFORE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME. OTHERWISE...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LA TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THE TSTM CLUSTER...ROUGHLY WEST OF KLCH TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF KGLS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS NOT DESTABILIZED GIVEN RAIN AND CLOUDS OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...RETURN FLOW INTO S LA HAS BEEN PARTIALLY MODIFIED AT BEST WITH DEW POINTS 58-63F. THUS...PRIND THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A ISOLD WIND GUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL LA THIS EVENING. ...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE SEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND WILL LIKELY SWEEP INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. 00Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION VCNTY H7 BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE KLZK SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME INHIBITION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER. THUS...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ...PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ALONG/N OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET AXIS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE PAC NW TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL SHOWERS DIMINISH. ..RACY.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 05:33:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:33:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502140536.j1E5ac8Q003221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140534 SWODY1 SPC AC 140532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM MCB 40 WNW MEI 40 NNE TCL 20 NW GAD 20 W RMG 15 NNW AHN 35 SSE AND 20 WSW FLO 30 ESE FAY 35 N EWN 35 SE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SERN STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS. ...SERN STATES... TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH. AS PRIMARY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NWD INTO THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. THUS...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THEY CROSS GA AND NRN FL WHERE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE MORE STABLE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ADVECT MID 50S DEW POINTS NWD ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME PROFILES AND RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY THAN WILL BE REALIZED. NAMKF SEEMS MORE REPRESENTATIVE AND MAINTAINS SBCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. THUS...DESPITE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...MINIMAL INSTABILITY/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE SEVERE RISKS. STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE NC/SC. ..RACY.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 12:36:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 07:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502141239.j1ECdwkj024974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141238 SWODY1 SPC AC 141236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 45 NNW MOB 15 W BHM 20 W RMG 15 NNE AHN 15 E AGS 45 NNW CHS 30 S FAY 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... STRONG SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SHEAR PROFILES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL AID IN MAINTAINING SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADING AL/GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL. ..EVANS.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 16:25:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 11:25:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502141628.j1EGSTCp025776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141625 SWODY1 SPC AC 141623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE ...CONT... PFN 20 SE DHN 10 WSW CSG 30 ENE ATL 35 ESE AHN 20 WNW CAE 30 NNW FLO 25 SSE RDU 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GA/N FL TODAY...AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. ...CA AREA... A SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 37 N AND 131 W HAS SLOWED APPRECIABLY IN ITS EWD MOVEMENT THE PAST 12 HOURS AS PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...AS WILL THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...MT AREA... FINALLY...A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO JUSTIFY A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA. ..THOMPSON.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 19:48:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:48:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502141951.j1EJpQAF026693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141949 SWODY1 SPC AC 141947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY 20 E VLD 65 ESE MCN 45 ESE AHN 20 WNW CAE 30 NNW FLO 25 SSE RDU 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE SE ATLANTIC STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE MID/SE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS... THOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN FL TO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE STORM THREAT. ...MT/NRN ID... EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ID INTO WRN MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD OVER THIS REGION. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED AS OF 1930Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS UVVS WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD SEWD WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT PER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -38 C AT 500 MB/. LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO ADD A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 00:56:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 19:56:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502150059.j1F0xL5q018967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150056 SWODY1 SPC AC 150055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE SERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS NOW PASSING INTO NEW ENGLAND...WELL N OF ANY THERMAL BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE TSTMS. AREA OF NRN FL WHERE MEAGER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST HAS AN ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE AND NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. ..RACY.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 05:39:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 00:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502150542.j1F5ghda026948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150541 SWODY1 SPC AC 150539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAY 15 WSW PKB CRW 20 WSW TRI 45 SSW TYS HSV 10 ENE UOX 55 NE LIT 15 SSE TBN 40 WNW STL 15 SW SPI DNV 35 N IND 10 ESE DAY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST/OH-TN VLYS... POTENT UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE/ DEEPEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY THEN MOVE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND THE OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE OF HIGH QUALITY...SBCAPES WILL BE 200-400 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN MO TO SRN IL IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT MINIMAL THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER OH VLY NEWD INTO THE TN AND MID-OH VLYS AS SWLY LLJ RESPONDS TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS. THESE BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND...GIVEN MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. ..RACY.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 12:31:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 07:31:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502151234.j1FCYBkR002105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151232 SWODY1 SPC AC 151230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAY 15 WSW PKB CRW 20 WSW TRI 45 SSW TYS 35 NE CBM 10 WNW GWO 35 NE PBF 35 ENE UNO 30 WSW STL 30 SSW SPI DNV 35 N IND 10 ESE DAY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID SOUTH INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE STEADILY ESEWD AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCELERATED SEWD AND INTO THE OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORT MARGINAL...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CAPPED...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...EXPECT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..EVANS.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 17:00:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 12:00:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502151703.j1FH3WGH007520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151629 SWODY1 SPC AC 151627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DAY 25 NNE UNI CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS 35 NE CBM 15 NNW GWO 35 NE PBF 35 ENE UNO 30 WSW STL 30 SSW SPI DNV 25 NW MIE 35 NE DAY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE OF THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. A POSITIVE TILT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE NOW IN SE KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ...MID/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IN SE KS AS OF 15Z WILL MOVE ENEWD TO ROUGHLY THE STL AREA BY 00Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AS FAR NE AS SRN IL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F ARE PRESENT FROM E TX INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS ERN MO AND CENTRAL/SRN IL AND INDIANA. THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE /MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-750 J/KG/...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT. STILL...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 19:52:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:52:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502151955.j1FJtMdX029777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151952 SWODY1 SPC AC 151950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MTC 30 W CAK CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS CBM GWO 45 NE LIT 35 NW UNO UIN MLI 15 WNW CGX 20 N FNT 15 N MTC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. NRN STREAM JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE SRN STREAM JET EXTENDS FROM TX INTO GA. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN MO. ...OH/TN VALLEYS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MO IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING...AND THEN SWING NEWD THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND WRN TN. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED...LOWER TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS OVER SERN AR/NRN MS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM SHOULD YIELD MUCAPES FROM 300 TO 800 J/KG BY EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE LOW/FRONT AND LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT... BETWEEN THE NRN/SRN STREAM JET MAXES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE PARCELS WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK...WITH THE STORM UPDRAFTS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT SHIFTS FURTHER NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER. ALTHOUGH A COLD BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NRN IL EWD INTO NWRN OH...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MUCAPES AOB 100 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM NRN IL ENEWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH/SRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..IMY.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 00:35:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 19:35:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502160038.j1G0c1ci025220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160036 SWODY1 SPC AC 160034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW JBR 45 ESE VIH 10 W SPI 25 SSE CGX 30 SW LAN MTC 25 N CLE 25 SSW CAK CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS 45 S MSL 30 N GLH 50 SW JBR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH/TN VLYS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VLYS THIS EVENING. WEAK 1006 MB LOW S OF KSTL WAS TRAVERSING A COLD FRONT AND WILL MOVE FROM SERN MO TO NWRN OH OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NARROW RIBBON OF NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS BENEATH 7C/KM H5-H7 LAPSE RATES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN MO...BUT UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING OWING TO WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY. AS THE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD...SWLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...VIA LIFT AND ADVECTION...WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS. MUCAPES WILL LIKELY GET NO HIGHER THAN 200-400 J/KG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR BANDS OF TSTMS. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FARTHER N...H85 FRONT WILL BE TO FOCUS FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH. ..RACY.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 05:16:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:16:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502160519.j1G5Jn9n012393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160518 SWODY1 SPC AC 160516 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 25 SW SOP 20 WNW NHK 10 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE. NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON WED ACROSS THE NERN PARTS OF AMERICA. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OH VLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WED PM AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. A SRN STREAM JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE TO THE SERN STATES BY WED NIGHT. ...MID-ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL BE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE 18Z WED THEN TO THE COAST BY 00Z. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOISTEN WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE MID 50S BY PEAK HEATING WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-800 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT... AUGMENTED BY COUPLING OF NRN/SRN STREAM JET STRUCTURES... WILL LIKELY AID IN BANDS OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT 18-21Z FROM CNTRL VA TO CNTRL NC. VEERING OF THE WARM SECTOR LL FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWNSLOPE...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT DETRIMENTAL IN MAINTAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS 18-00Z FROM ERN SHORES OF MD SWD INTO ERN NC. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. ..RACY.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 12:44:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 07:44:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502161247.j1GClS51011570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161245 SWODY1 SPC AC 161243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 25 SW SOP 20 WNW NHK 10 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC... PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES YIELD LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE FRONT...STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS MAINTAINED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN PA INTO ERN TN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESS EWD. ONCE AFTERNOON HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING INCREASES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AS FRONT INTERACTS THIS INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...STRONG SHEAR AND FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN PLACE. PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS CENTERED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. ETAKF AND ETA CONTINUE TO FORECAST 70-75F SFC TEMPS ALONG WITH 56-58F DEW POINTS BY 19Z INTO NERN NC/ERN VA...WHILE RUC MAINTAINS MID 60S OVER LOWER 50S. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN RESULTANT INSTABILITY. AM INCLINED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RUC ATTM. THOUGH...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...SLGT RISK COULD BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IF IT APPEARS ETA AND ETAKF BOUNDARY-LAYER FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK. ..EVANS.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 16:12:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 11:12:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502161615.j1GGFGtV032509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161610 SWODY1 SPC AC 161610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1010 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 50 NE MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TESTING DISSEMINATION. THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TESTING. ..AFWA.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 16:33:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 11:33:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502161636.j1GGaUJR017579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161631 SWODY1 SPC AC 161629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRE 30 NNE FLO 25 NNW SOP 30 E DAN 40 NE CHO BWI 10 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A REX BLOCK OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...A SRN AND NRN STREAM CONFLUENCE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...AND A NRN STREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM /NOW LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/ WILL MOVE OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN CENTRAL NY WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD MAINE WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. ...ERN NY/PA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA HAVE SHOWN ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM NE PA TO CENTRAL NY. SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO ERN PA/NY. ...VA/CAROLINAS... TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. STILL...POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TEND TO LIMIT BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND SHALLOW ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE 30-40 KT WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ..THOMPSON.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 19:59:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 14:59:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502162002.j1GK2kRl001538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161959 SWODY1 SPC AC 161957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 40 SW FLO CAE 45 SSE AND 10 NNE ATL 20 E RMG GSO 40 E CHO ILG 10 ESE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TIDEWATER AREA INTO ERN NC... AS OF 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VWP DATA INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NRN GA. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO WARM TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS OWING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE TIDEWATER AREA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 8 C/KM. DESPITE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT IN NRN GA /ENE OF RMG/ WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING NEWD ALONG FRONT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST APPEARS TO BE WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE TIDEWATER AREA INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 00:55:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:55:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502170059.j1H0xCEb000744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170057 SWODY1 SPC AC 170055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HSE 25 W FLO 30 SSE SPA 10 SE CLT 45 E RWI 25 NE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH MODESTLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD...AS BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES AROUND ERN U.S. TROUGH. ...PARTS OF NC / SC... MINIMAL INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ALONG FRONT...WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN CESSATION OF LIGHTNING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 05:56:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 00:56:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502170559.j1H5xijL027521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170557 SWODY1 SPC AC 170555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CANADA / THE U.S. WHILE AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OFF THE CA COAST. WITH COOL / STABLE AIRMASS HAVING SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST OVER THE SWRN CONUS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ...CA... VARIOUS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACCORDING TO NAM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...FAIRLY COLD /-20 TO -22 C/ TEMPS AT MID LEVELS SPREADING INLAND COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMITED HEATING WOULD SUGGEST SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF CA...WITH NO WELL-DEFINED DOWNSTREAM FEATURE ALOFT EVIDENT ATTM WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...SUFFICIENT UVV SHOULD EXIST TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION APPEARS ATTM TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT...SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY. ..GOSS.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 12:41:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 07:41:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502171245.j1HCj9hq024927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171243 SWODY1 SPC AC 171241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA INTO SRN NV/NWRN AZ... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NNEWD AND ROTATE ACROSS CA DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE CA COAST. BY LATER TODAY...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL CA AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ROTATE AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND APPROACH SRN CA. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL AND WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS. RESULTANT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL THUS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM SRN/CENTRAL CA INTO PARTS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SRN CA COAST INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE ETA AND ETAKF MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS NOW APPROACHING SWRN CA LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY. ..EVANS.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 16:30:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 11:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502171633.j1HGXpEg027199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171630 SWODY1 SPC AC 171628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BROAD MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN W OF THE CA COAST AS PART OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING REX BLOCK OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE NEWD OVER SRN CA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY...OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS A FEW STRIKES IN A CLUSTER NEAR 30 N AND 121 W WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND OTHER ISOLATED STRIKES FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL INVOF 30 N AND 127 W. THE THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INLAND. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY COLD AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. ..THOMPSON.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 19:51:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 14:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502171954.j1HJshGJ028057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171951 SWODY1 SPC AC 171951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0151 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 35 N RBL RNO 30 SSW TPH SGU 30 W GCN PRC GBN 65 SSW GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA INTO SRN NV AND WRN AZ... THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...MODEL DATA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SOUNDINGS INDICATE BORDERLINE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER INCREASING WIND FLOW FROM THE SW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND RESTRICT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATED. ..AFWA.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 00:47:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 19:47:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502180051.j1I0p33K025325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180049 SWODY1 SPC AC 180047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 65 SSW SVE 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 30 SSW GCN 45 SW PRC 60 ESE BLH 25 ESE IPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA INTO SRN NV/WRN AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA/NRN BAJA REGION AT THIS TIME...AS IT ROTATES AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SRN CA OVERNIGHT. ..PETERS.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 05:56:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 00:56:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502180559.j1I5xjCj028527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180557 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 50 ESE RBL 55 N BIH 30 NE P38 30 NNW DRO 10 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 35 SE GDP 50 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TODAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST DE-AMPLIFIES...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NRN BC AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE BC TROUGH MOVING SWD WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. ...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY... GRADUAL COOLING AT MID LEVELS AS THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW MOVES EWD...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS CA FROM THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA TODAY. SOME SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SHOULD AID IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG. 25-30 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ..PETERS.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 12:33:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 07:33:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502181236.j1ICaIcx004883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181234 SWODY1 SPC AC 181232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL TPH MLF 4BL LVS CNM 30 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDING ACROSS BAJA CA INTO TX/NM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER FEATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. STRONG ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS ARE AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS APPEAR POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THIS REGION...PROVIDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COMBINATION OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS TODAY OVER CENTRAL CA. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 16:02:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 11:02:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502181605.j1IG5vC0030829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181602 SWODY1 SPC AC 181601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL TPH MLF 4BL LVS 20 NW INK 30 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE AND GRADUALLY FILL AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS SWD THRU BRITISH COLUMBIA. VORT LOBE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT LOBE...ONSHORE FLOW OF A VERY MOIST...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...COUPLED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING CENTRAL COAST INLAND TO CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL AID IN RAISING MUCAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CA...PARTICULARLY VICINITY COAST AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE A RISK AREA. ..HALES.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 19:36:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 14:36:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502181939.j1IJdrUW011030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181937 SWODY1 SPC AC 181936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL TPH MLF 4BL LVS 20 NW INK 30 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS SHIFTED INLAND... ALLOWING A 70-80 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM VBG/OXR NWD TO SFO TO RECEIVE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL NEWD ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N AND 125W/ BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. ..MEAD.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 00:54:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 19:54:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502190057.j1J0vEMm003407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190055 SWODY1 SPC AC 190053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S EKA 50 WNW RBL 10 NW RBL 50 SE RBL 40 WSW TVL 55 S TVL 60 WNW BIH 15 E BIH 50 WNW DRA 20 NNE DRA 35 S P38 15 NNE SGU 15 SSE BCE 30 ENE U17 35 NNE CEZ 15 W ALS 30 SE RTN 45 NW TCC 60 SSE LVS 25 NNE 4CR 20 WSW 4CR 35 E TCS 35 SSE TCS 20 E DMN 40 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL CA COASTAL RANGES AND VALLEYS... COMPLEX UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD OVER COASTAL CA TONIGHT. HEATING OF THE DAY AND RELATIVELY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM LA BASIN NWD TO SAN LUIS OBISPO. WHILE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE RANGE OF 800-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. ...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY TO NM/FOUR CORNERS AREA... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WITHIN SE FLANK OF LARGE SCALE LOW AFFECTING CA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAILING PORTION OF ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ APPEARS TO BE DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF TUS. WHILE A GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AZ...ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS SUGGESTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN BAJA. AS THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLES WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND RESIDUAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SRN/ERN AZ ACROSS NWRN NM LATER TONIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..CARBIN.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 05:57:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 00:57:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502190601.j1J6147p011605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ONP 20 E ONP 30 S SLE 40 ESE EUG 30 NE MFR 45 W MHS 15 ESE RBL 45 NNE FAT 55 NW DRA 50 W P38 25 WSW BCE 40 SW 4HV 40 WNW GJT 30 E GJT 45 S GUC 20 NW SAF 40 WSW ROW 25 ENE CNM 15 SSE MAF 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PBF 60 N HOT 40 N JLN 10 SSE MHK 40 WSW CNK HLC 45 S MCK 20 WNW MCK 30 NNE MCK 15 NNW HSI 15 ESE OMA 10 NNW LWD 10 W UIN 20 N SLO 25 N HOP 30 SSE CKV 40 N MSL 15 WNW MSL 45 ENE PBF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH COMPLEX CYCLONE ALONG THE CA COAST AND DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...EMANATING FROM THE WEST COAST LOW...WILL PASS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING SWD OVER WRN CANADA...WILL PASS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND START TO MERGE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXIST ALONG/INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. ASIDE FROM A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NRN NEW ENGLAND... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FEATURES DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE WEST COAST TROUGHS...AS WELL AS THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE PLAINS. ...CA/AZ... ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CA/AZ LATER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE WELL-DEFINED IMPULSE NOW MOVING OVER UT. NONETHELESS...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND/OR GREATER MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DESERT AREAS/NEAR THE CA COAST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 250-500 J/KG. WITH WEAK TO NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE FORCING...PRIMARY FACTORS DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK OROGRAPHIC AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION. MODEST SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE OR TWO HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ACTIVITY ALONG THE CA COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO WEAKER CLOUD BEARING SHEAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THESE AREAS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ...MO RIVER VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY LATE... A LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER CO AND MOVE EAST ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MO RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AFTER DARK...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SHOULD PROMOTE ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN KS/SRN NE ESEWD TO MO/AR AREAS IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. STORM UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF A PLUME OF POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 12:06:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 07:06:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502191209.j1JC9c1D008355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191207 SWODY1 SPC AC 191205 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JBR HRO JLN MHK BIE 40 N FNB P35 STL MDH 10 SSE PAH DYR JBR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ONP 20 E ONP 30 S SLE 40 ESE EUG 30 NE MFR 45 W MHS RBL 45 NE MER BIH P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE CA COAST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY...WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MUCH OF CA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS WELL AS FAR WEST TX. TWO SMALL AREAS WITHIN THIS REGION APPEAR TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY HEIGHTENED THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION TODAY. ...SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING... PRIMARY UPPER VORT MAX IS APPROACHING THE LA BASIN AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED CELLS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS NEW CELLS GENERATE JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. ...SOUTHWEST AZ THIS AFTERNOON... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IS PRESENT IN THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING ALOFT...AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 16:21:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 11:21:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502191624.j1JGOSJt003946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191621 SWODY1 SPC AC 191619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE 25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW JBR 15 NW HRO 25 WSW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE MVN 10 SSE PAH DYR 15 WNW JBR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS OPENING UP AND MOVING INLAND AS A WEAKENING TROUGH IN BROAD WSWLY FLOW. NEXT S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU B.C. WILL REDEVELOP UPPER LOW W OF CA SUN UNDER CONTINUING REX BLOCK REGIME. ...SRN CA... AS S/WV TROUGH MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR UPWARDS TO 25 KT COUPLED WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR STORM ROTATION UNTIL TROUGH MOVES E OF COASTAL AREAS. PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS WILL BE BRIEF/ MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREAT WEST OF MOUNTAINS. STORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPS. ...SRN AZ... WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER SWRN U.S. ALONG WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDENT PRIMARILY ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. CURRENT CLEARING LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL OCCUR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 60S CENTRAL DESERT VALLEYS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50KT ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ..HALES.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 19:48:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 14:48:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502191951.j1JJptEY005336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191949 SWODY1 SPC AC 191947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE 25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PBF 45 ESE FSM 40 SW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE MVN 10 SSE PAH 20 NNE UOX 15 ESE PBF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER LOS ANGELES/ORANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON NKX AND SOX VWPS HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL MINI SUPERCELLS WHICH HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER COURSE OF THE MORNING. EXPECT THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC AND ADJACENT COAST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY OF NWRN AZ AND SRN NV WHERE SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W. HERE TOO...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD #0171. ..MEAD.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 22:27:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 17:27:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502192230.j1JMURl6012312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192202 SWODY1 SPC AC 192201 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE 25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH 30 NNE P38 40 SE U24 20 NNE U28 GJT 40 E GUC 25 ENE TAD 10 SSW DHT 40 SSW LBB 20 WSW BGS 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PBF 45 ESE FSM 40 SW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE MVN 10 SSE PAH 20 NNE UOX 15 ESE PBF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED FOR EXTEND GENERAL TSTM INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS ...SRN CA COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER LOS ANGELES/ORANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON NKX AND SOX VWPS HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL MINI SUPERCELLS WHICH HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER COURSE OF THE MORNING. EXPECT THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC AND ADJACENT COAST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY OF NWRN AZ AND SRN NV WHERE SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W. HERE TOO...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD #0171. ...NM INTO WRN TX... STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY FAR WRN TX. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. ..MEAD.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 01:03:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 20:03:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502200106.j1K16IpH003180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200103 SWODY1 SPC AC 200102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LIT 25 ENE FYV 40 NW SGF 30 WSW TOP 20 NW FNB 50 ESE OMA 30 ESE OTM 15 WNW SPI 35 WNW EVV 10 ESE CKV 25 NE MEM 25 NE LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UKI 55 SE RBL 15 SSW TVL 25 WSW BIH 40 ENE NID 25 S U24 25 NNE U28 40 S 4FC 25 ENE TAD 45 WSW GAG 30 NE ABI 35 NNE JCT 45 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER CO VALLEY / SWRN AZ... BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY ATTM...THROUGH AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE / SPREAD ACROSS SWRN AZ AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING / BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS OR SO. ...SERN NM / PARTS OF FAR W TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM / FAR W TX INTO PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND TX SOUTH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS -- HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THIS REGION. THOUGH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD CORRESPOND TO A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 06:18:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 01:18:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502200621.j1K6LWNa014981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200619 SWODY1 SPC AC 200617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PRX 20 ENE FSM 30 W JEF DEC 40 SSW BMG 25 SW CKV 35 N GWO 20 SSE ELD 15 NE GGG 40 S PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRA 50 ESE U24 EGE 45 W ALS 50 NW GUP 50 NE PHX 40 NW GBN 30 NNW EED 40 ENE DRA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 50 WSW FAT PMD 45 S RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAL 35 NNW PGO 10 ENE CNU 30 WNW BIE 20 N OMA 40 SSE LNR 35 SSE MTC 20 ESE BUF 30 W AVP 20 S DCA 45 NNE RDU LGC 40 S MLU 35 NNE VCT 10 S SAT 45 ENE JCT 15 SE DAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD / MODERATELY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL E OF THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY...AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES / MOVES SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER FAR WRN KS IS EXPECTED OVER NERN KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY AROUND SUNSET AND THEN CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STATES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR W TX...SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AS LOW RACES ENEWD ACROSS THE MS / OH VALLEYS. ...ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS NAM FORECASTS APPEAR TO REMAIN MUCH TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERALLY 30S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MO...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS AR...WRN TN...AND MS. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...AS COOL / VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS BENEATH STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING W-E ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS -- NOW OVER TX -- WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR GIVEN TRAJECTORIES INTO THE OZARKS REGION PERSISTING FROM WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / LIFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS PERSIST ATTM WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN KS / ERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...WITHIN LARGER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE CONVECTION -- DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE AS MENTIONED ABOVE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO AND SRN IL. FURTHER S ACROSS AR INTO THE ARKLATEX...GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER FORCING FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL NE OF THE ARKLATEX AND CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR...WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY WEAK CAP AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE. WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WSWLY AT AROUND 60 KT...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. FURTHER N...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING / MOISTENING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION. UNDER THE MOST FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER...CLEARING / BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG REAR SIDE OF LOW CLOUD FIELD MAY ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT ANY CLEARING / HEATING WOULD OCCUR LATE...AND JUST AHEAD OF LOW / FRONT...WITH INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST NWD ACROSS MO INTO THE SRN HALF OF IL...BUT THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDINESS / BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT. ..GOSS.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 12:25:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 07:25:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502201228.j1KCSlKI009926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201226 SWODY1 SPC AC 201224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGO FYV COU DEC BMG HOP UOX ELD TXK PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI MER EDW 45 S RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P38 PUC EGE 45 W ALS GUP INW PRC LAS P38. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FTW MLC CNU BIE FOD LNR MBS BUF AVP DCA 45 NNE RDU LGC ESF 35 NNE VCT SAT 45 ENE JCT FTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... BAND OF MODERATELY FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM KS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM TX/OK INTO NY/PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NAM/RUC/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT NOW LIES ACROSS AR/MS WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF 50S DEWPOINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE RUC/NAM REGARDING THE EXTENT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BL MIXING AND EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE MORE REALISTIC...MAINTAINING A CAPPING INVERSION AND SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER 21Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEST EDGE OF STRATUS DECK WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. POINTS EAST OF THIS LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...INSUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL STRONGER UPPER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER DARK. ONCE UVVS INCREASE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO EASTERN AR. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AID IN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO AR/TX APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE. IF THE NAM BL FORECAST SCENARIO IS CORRECT...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS /PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL. ..HART.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 00:53:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 19:53:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502210056.j1L0uH0V031506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210054 SWODY1 SPC AC 210052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW FYV 30 S TBN 35 SSE SPI 15 SSE MTO 45 NNW EVV 25 W HOP 30 ESE MEM 20 W ELD 40 SSE PGO 40 NW FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 25 NE MER 15 E EDW 15 ESE CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW U28 25 WNW CAG 20 SSW 4FC 25 SW PUB 25 NE LVS 10 ESE 4CR 30 NE SOW 20 ESE PGA 20 NW U28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GLS 20 SW PRX 25 NW MLC 15 ENE DHT 45 WNW EHA 55 W GCK 25 ENE CNU 35 S SZL 40 WNW SPI 35 SSE CGX DTW 20 SE ERI 20 NW HGR 20 N GSO 35 N LGC 40 E MEI 35 S MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... ...PORTIONS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IND/OH. SECONDARY...MORE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDED SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WRN IL AND THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL AR BEFORE BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED OVER CNTRL MS/AL. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT/ FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS NRN OK. FINALLY...WEAK DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM E OF VIH SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N-CNTRL TX E OF THE METROPLEX. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY TRIED TO INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OR SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SRN MO. INSPECTION OF 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF SRN MO/AR INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN CA COAST... LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER/MID-LEVEL LOW /NEAR 33.5N AND 126.5W/ BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE MORE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SMALL TSTM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER THE OK PNHDL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUITE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR /PER 00Z AMA SOUNDING/. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NWRN OK...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LATER TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 01:02:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 20:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502210105.j1L15QLb004538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210103 SWODY1 SPC AC 210101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW FYV 30 S TBN 35 SSE SPI 15 SSE MTO 45 NNW EVV 25 W HOP 30 ESE MEM 20 W ELD 40 SSE PGO 40 NW FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 25 NE MER 15 E EDW 15 ESE CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW U28 25 WNW CAG 20 SSW 4FC 25 SW PUB 25 NE LVS 10 ESE 4CR 30 NE SOW 20 ESE PGA 20 NW U28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GLS 20 SW PRX 25 NW MLC 15 ENE DHT 45 WNW EHA 55 W GCK 25 ENE CNU 35 S SZL 40 WNW SPI 35 SSE CGX DTW 20 SE ERI 20 NW HGR 20 N GSO 35 N LGC 40 E MEI 35 S MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY SRN CA ...PORTIONS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IND/OH. SECONDARY...MORE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDED SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WRN IL AND THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL AR BEFORE BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED OVER CNTRL MS/AL. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT/ FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS NRN OK. FINALLY...WEAK DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM E OF VIH SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N-CNTRL TX E OF THE METROPLEX. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY TRIED TO INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OR SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SRN MO. INSPECTION OF 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF SRN MO/AR INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN CA COAST... LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER/MID-LEVEL LOW /NEAR 33.5N AND 126.5W/ BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE MORE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SMALL TSTM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER THE OK PNHDL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUITE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR /PER 00Z AMA SOUNDING/. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NWRN OK...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LATER TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 06:07:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 01:07:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502210610.j1L6AW8r015566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210608 SWODY1 SPC AC 210605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UKI 30 SSW RBL 40 ESE RBL 55 WNW BIH 35 NNW NID 65 SSW LAS 30 E IGM 30 WNW PHX 60 SSW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE JAX 45 WNW CTY ...CONT... 10 WNW BVE LCH 20 NNE PSX 25 WNW VCT 30 SE SAT 35 WSW AUS 65 SW TYR 35 ESE PRX 35 ENE FSM 35 SW JLN 30 NNW SGF 45 ESE VIH 15 WNW EVV 20 E SDF 30 NNE HTS 50 WSW EKN 10 NW SHD 25 SSW DCA 15 ENE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONG VORT MAX INITIALLY OVER OK / SRN KS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH CONFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WSWWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO OK. WHILE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX...THE REST OF THE ROUGHLY W-E FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO NRN / CENTRAL TX. ...UPPER TX COAST / E TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEYS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION -- FROM ROUGHLY THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY -- AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF AR EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...WITH FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE LITTLE SWD PROGRESS WITH TIME...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INVOF FRONTAL ZONE / AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING / DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS PART OF THE REGION. FARTHER S -- FROM E TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... SLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MID 60S DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ANTICIPATED S OF SURFACE FRONT AND FORECAST LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD / ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF MOISTURE / INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER FLOW / DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS REGION. OVERALL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ...SRN CA... LARGE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST THIS PERIOD...WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ATTM BEING POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WITHIN WHAT COULD BE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...WITH UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS ONCE EVOLUTION OF AIRMASS BECOMES MORE CLEAR. FURTHER N...HAVE ADDED A LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AS IT APPEARS THAT DRY SLOT MAY OVERSPREAD THIS REGION ALLOWING SOME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP. ..GOSS.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 12:34:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 07:34:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502211237.j1LCbR8R015249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211235 SWODY1 SPC AC 211234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DYR HOP LOZ HSS ATL SEM JAN GLH 45 WSW MEM 30 NNW DYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BVE LCH 45 SSE CLL 25 SE DRT 25 SSW P07 65 SW SJT ACT 40 S PRX 35 W HOT UNO MDH EVV SDF CRW CHO 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... 25 ESE JAX 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 35 NNW RBL 35 SW SVE RNO TPH SGU 10 SSE PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST KS. STRONG UVVS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF TN AND NORTHERN MS/AL. A RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING ALSO SUGGEST THE RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. STRONG WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHERN CA... NEXT POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN AFFECTING CA. STRONG WIND FIELDS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20 TO -24C AT 500MB/ AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOES...OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN CA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..HART.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 16:25:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 11:25:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502211628.j1LGSUka029583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211625 SWODY1 SPC AC 211624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE HSV 25 WSW CSV 45 SE LOZ 10 SE TRI 15 ENE AND 15 W MGM 25 E MEI 25 SE GWO 35 SW MSL 45 NNE HSV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OXR 25 SW PMD RAL 40 SW TRM 10 ENE CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 45 NW CTY ...CONT... 10 WNW BVE LCH 40 ESE CLL 25 SE DRT 60 NNW DRT 25 SW SJT 30 NNW FTW 45 NE PRX 15 NNW HOT 55 ENE LIT 55 E MKL 15 ESE BWG 25 WNW JKL 20 S CRW CHO 15 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 35 NNW RBL 35 SW SVE RNO TPH SGU 10 SSE PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SERN U.S... S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX DRIVING CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TN VALLEY...WILL MOVE EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL OUTRUN THE RETURN FLOW. WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT ACTIVITY CROSSES SRN APPALACHIANS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN THE INTERIM WELL DEFINED BOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EWD ACROSS TN/NRN GA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON TRAILING BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AL INTO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AND MUCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG. WITH S/WV MOVING E OF THIS AREA...SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE EVENING. ...SRN CA... STRONG SURFACE/UPPER LOW FORECASTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF CENTRAL CA COAST AND GRADUALLY FILL NEXT 24 HOURS. THRU THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SRN CA COASTAL AREA. CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOS/WATER SPOUTS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR SLOWLY WEAKENS. ..HALES.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 20:06:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:06:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502212009.j1LK9AMb031877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212001 SWODY1 SPC AC 212000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SAV 20 NNE TOI 50 NE JAN 20 NW GLH 55 SW MEM 35 E MEM 25 N HSV CHA 20 N AND 30 NE CAE 10 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BVE LCH 35 S CLL 30 NE DRT 70 SSW SJT 30 NW SJT 50 ESE SPS 35 W HOT 25 NW LIT 40 SW JBR 40 NE MKL 35 ENE BWG 20 NW LEX 50 WNW HTS 15 NNE CRW 25 S EKN 25 ENE CHO 35 NNW ORF 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 S SSI 45 NW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 35 S RBL 55 W RNO 65 NNW BIH 45 S TPH 55 SW SGU 25 SSW PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN AR...ACROSS NRN MS/AL/GA AND PARTS OF SC... ...MS RIVER TO TN VLY TO SC COAST... SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE LEADING ARC OF TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO NC PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SURFACE-BASED STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER RAIN AND RESIDUAL CP AIRMASS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE WITH THIS PARTICULAR BAND OF CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AIR MASS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM THE LWR MS RIVER VLY ENEWD ACROSS AL/GA...AND NOW INTO PARTS OF SC. WHILE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THESE AREAS...ACROSS AR AND TN...DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK LINES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. REGION IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS OF THE CHANNELED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER TN/KY. HOWEVER...DEEP WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE COUPLED WITH WEAKLY CAPPED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG/...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR INTENSIFYING STORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. ...SRN CA... STRONGLY CYCLONIC DEEP LAYER FLOW CONTINUES WITHIN SERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL...STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL PROMOTE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS BENEATH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT NKX APPEAR TO HAVE VEERED PER LATEST VWP AND ACARS DATA...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS...WHILE SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED... BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S/SE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM LA BASIN NWD ALONG THE COAST. AS HEATING OF THE DAY AIDS IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. ...NERN TX LATE... LATEST 18Z ETA CONTINUES EARLIER TREND IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS OVER CNTRL/NERN TX LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASE IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND ENCOUNTERS DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. PERSISTENT WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN BOTH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND STRONG SHEAR ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THUS...IF STORMS DO INITIATE OVER THE AREA...LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 01:09:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 20:09:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502220112.j1M1CW5Q009749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220109 SWODY1 SPC AC 220108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PRB 45 WNW SAC 35 ENE SAC 20 N NID 25 SE IPL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SAV 35 N AYS 30 SE CSG 35 NE CBM 35 E TUP 15 SSW MSL 20 WNW RMG 30 NNW AHN 20 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 25 SSE VLD 35 W MAI 45 E LUL 15 SSE HEZ 30 ESE CLL 20 NE COT 45 W HDO 55 WSW SJT 65 NE BGS 30 N MWL 15 WNW ELD 30 WNW UOX 35 NE MSL 20 N CSV 25 SW SHD 15 SSE MRB 30 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 35 N RBL 45 NW TVL 25 NNE BIH 15 NW DRA 55 SW SGU 25 SSW PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AL ESEWD ACROSS GA INTO SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA... ...SERN CONUS... SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM WITH MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS GA AND INTO EXTREME SRN SC...WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM. THREAT DECREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO MS...WHERE UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION -- WHICH LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY ACROSS MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTRAL GA / FAR SRN SC. ...CENTRAL AND SRN CA... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WHILE VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES CYCLONICALLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA. LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COLD /-22 TO -24 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL CA...LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL -- WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S...FAST / DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ALONG EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF CA. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A SECOND LOBE OF VORTICITY FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LESSER THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL TX... MODELS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED / WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT. WITH THIS FEATURE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO 22/12Z. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 06:07:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 01:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502220610.j1M6Aipi001325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220608 SWODY1 SPC AC 220605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 35 NNE MRF 20 E CNM LBB 40 SSE CDS 30 SSW FTW 25 SSE TYR 55 S GLH 20 SW SEM 20 SE TOI 35 ENE CEW 20 SW PNS ...CONT... 25 E PSX 20 NNE COT 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 40 WSW GDP 40 ENE ALM 30 SSW 4CR 15 WSW ONM 60 WNW TCS 40 E DUG ...CONT... 35 SSW UKI 45 W RBL 30 E RBL TVL 35 NNW BIH 10 ESE TPH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 4FC LAA 35 ESE DDC 45 ESE FSM 25 ESE MEM 25 WSW RMG 40 ENE CAE 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 35 SSE VRB 10 NW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD / ROUGHLY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE COLD /-24C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CA / SRN NV. OTHERWISE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES / PLAINS STATES AND TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT / FAST WLY FLOW IN A BROAD ZONE CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SWD FROM ITS INITIAL POSITION FROM SC WWD INTO NERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES / SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN GA WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD / NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS SLY / SELY FLOW DEVELOPS S OF COLD FRONT...WHILE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE S OF FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS TX AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION...WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SUB-TROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX INTO SERN NM WHERE MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS. FURTHER WWD INTO TX...SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY W TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...WHERE STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND NRN TX EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP / VEER FROM SELY TO SSWLY WITH TIME. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ...SRN CA / AZ... DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA / AZ THIS PERIOD IN SERN QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AND THUS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- IS FORECAST ACROSS FAR SRN CA AND INTO SWRN AZ...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION THUS LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE BY AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. ..GOSS.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 12:45:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 07:45:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502221248.j1MCm3v8012488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221245 SWODY1 SPC AC 221244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 35 NNE MRF HOB LBB SPS PRX ELD BHM ATL 30 NNW AGS 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... SSI 10 SSE SSI ABY 35 NNW CEW GPT ...CONT... 20 SE BPT SAT 30 NW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 15 NE RAL TRM 20 SW IPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 40 WSW GDP 4CR RTN LAA DDC MKO PBF RMG FLO 20 ENE CRE ...CONT... VRB PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW UKI 40 N UKI RBL TVL 55 NW TPH ELY 30 SE SLC CNY 30 NNW GUP 65 WNW SAD 60 SW TUS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO GA/SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...SC/GA/AL/MS/LA... LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...ROUGHLY FROM NORTH GA INTO NORTHEAST TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS GA/AL/MS...AND BEGIN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OVER LA/TX BY TONIGHT. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK...AND UPPER FORCING WILL BE ILL-DEFINED. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LA INTO GA/SC. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...TX... WESTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS TX THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF HAIL THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...AREA OF MOST FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX /MAF...SJT... JCT AREAS/ THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE. SUPERCELL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS REGION....SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHWEST AZ... MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY...WHILE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN CA. TIMING OF SYSTEMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY...SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AZ TONIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED LOW-END THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG THE COAST. ..HART.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 23:43:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 18:43:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502230108.j1N18sE5018705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230107 SWODY1 SPC AC 230105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W JCT 45 S MAF 55 ENE HOB 40 SE CVS 15 ENE PVW 30 SSE CDS 10 W SPS 10 S DUA 30 SE PRX 25 SSW GGG 40 W LFK 30 SW TPL 45 W JCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE YUM 40 WSW EED 30 NW IGM 45 ESE PRC 55 SSW SOW 50 W SAD 15 NNW TUS 80 S GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S UKI 40 NNW UKI 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE RBL 55 SSW SVE 65 NNW BIH 40 S TPH 20 NW P38 10 WNW BCE 25 NNW 4BL 30 W ALS 30 WNW TAD 45 N EHA 35 SSE DDC 10 SSE PNC HOT 30 NW GLH 10 ESE GAD 35 NW AGS 25 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX NIR 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ... ...W TX EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AL... LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST INVOF COLD FRONT. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FURTHER W INTO TX...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS INDICATED. COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS N TX / THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD WITH TIME. WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE UPPER IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN MODERATE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL JET TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED STORMS -- AND THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL -- TO INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SWD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT. FURTHER S / WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN CA / WRN AND CENTRAL AZ... LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF AZ S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH MODERATE / DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH ORGANIZED / POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS. FURTHER W INTO SRN CA...INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER. NONETHELESS...A STRONGER LOW-TOPPED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST / ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 04:45:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:45:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502230610.j1N6AscV016929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230608 SWODY1 SPC AC 230605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NIR 30 SSW HDO 25 E P07 35 NE INK 35 ESE LBB 50 NW MWL 35 SE DAL 30 NW LFK 20 S HOU 20 ENE NIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MEI 15 SSE TCL 25 W MCN 40 ENE ABY 35 ENE MAI 30 NNW PFN 15 W MOB 30 SSW LUL 45 NNW MEI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC 20 NW BIH 35 NE BIH 35 NE TPH 35 SSW SLC 15 S CAG 20 ESE 4FC 25 ENE PUB 20 ENE LAA 20 WSW P28 10 NNW BVO 35 ESE FYV 40 NE PBF 35 ESE TUP 15 SE RMG 40 NW AGS 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE / CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AGAIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE SW. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT LINGERING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WWD INTO TX WILL AGAIN SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. ...TX... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS TX IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF FRONTAL SURGES SWD ACROSS TX...WITH SCENARIO TO BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NERN TX / OK...WITH SOME COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW / FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLOWLY COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH MODELS NOR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE WHICH MIGHT AFFECT THIS REGION...FORCING ALONG / N OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED SUGGEST NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE /30 TO 35 KT/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS / A FEW SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR OR JUST N OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL / SERN TX...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / GULF COAST STATES... SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER W TO E ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MINOR OSCILLATIONS IN FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION A WEAK EWD-MOVING WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX INTO LA ROUGHLY ALONG SURFACE FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NEW CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF SURFACE FRONT...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SHEAR -- ALONG WITH INSTABILITY -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- LIKELY FROM SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA -- WHERE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. ...DESERT SW... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM SRN CA ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER. AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRONGER FLOW SUPPRESSED GENERALLY S OF THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL / DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL / WIND THREAT FROM SRN CA EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN AZ. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 11:22:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 06:22:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502231247.j1NClVUX022410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231244 SWODY1 SPC AC 231242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX 40 SSW PSX NIR DRT P07 25 NE INK LBB SPS GGG MLU TCL LGC MCN ABY MAI 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL ELY VEL CAG 4FC COS LAA P28 TBN CGI 35 ENE MKL CHA AND 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW FROM TX TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE ABOVE FRONT. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG. ...EAST TX/LA/MS/AL... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS LA INTO MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS OBSERVED WITHIN THIS CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST AL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. ...TX... NAM/RUC GUIDANCE AGREE ON MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST TX...AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LOW. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG/ AND INCREASING UVVS WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CA/AZ... CORE OF UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LOW. ..HART.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 15:03:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 10:03:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502231628.j1NGSs2u022885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231625 SWODY1 SPC AC 231624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX 40 SSW PSX NIR DRT P07 25 NE INK LBB 10 W DAL 45 E SHV 40 WSW GLH TCL LGC MCN ABY MAI 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL ELY VEL CAG 4FC COS LAA P28 TBN CGI 35 ENE MKL CHA AND 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS GULF STATES... ...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION... CONFLUENT FLOW SRN PLAINS EWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS SRN CA INTO AZ BY 12Z THU. A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD THRU SRN PORTION OF GULF STATES. MCS WHICH DEVELOPED OUT OF OVERNIGHT TX SEVERE HAS CONTINUED EWD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. COOL..MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. ...SRN PLAINS EWD ALONG GULF COAST STATES... THE CONFLUENT WLY FLOW LWR MS VALLEY OF 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP/COOL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AN EXCEPTION FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE MCS NOW MOVING EWD INTO LA. IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY WITH SURFACE HEATING AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY MORE DISORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP VICINITY OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN MORE MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL RISK. IN THE WAKE OF MCS...AIR MASS CENTRAL TX WWD TO HILL COUNTRY SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SERN CA/AZ... WHILE SHEAR WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES ARE 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION. ..HALES.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 18:57:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:57:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502232022.j1NKMiAj022572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232020 SWODY1 SPC AC 232019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 15 NW VCT 15 ENE HDO 60 N DRT 45 NNE P07 45 ENE FST 15 SSE MAF 15 SW BGS 40 ESE BGS 30 SSW ABI 25 NNE BWD 25 ENE SEP 20 SSW DAL 35 SE DAL 35 WSW TYR 55 SSW TYR 35 W LFK LFK 25 W POE 35 NE ESF 35 WNW JAN 45 NNW MEI TCL 30 SW ANB 35 E LGC 10 SE MCN 50 SE MCN 50 NNW AYS 50 NE MGR 15 S ABY 15 SSE DHN 20 ENE CEW 25 NNE PNS 35 SSE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ ...CONT... 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL 15 WNW ELY 30 W VEL 20 SSE CAG 50 NW COS 35 S EHA 40 SSW GAG 35 N FSI 30 E MLC 45 NNW LIT 15 SSW ARG 30 NW DYR 40 SW BNA 60 S TYS 40 SE SPA ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN TX EASTWARD ACROSS LA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SERN LA/MS/AL/WRN GA... MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF ERN AND SRN LA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MS AND INTO WRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG BOWING ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ITS INTERSECTION WITH W-E BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM SCNTRL MS EWD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE W-E BOUNDARY WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND WRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MCS ARRIVES. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS WILL FAVOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LINE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE APPEAR EQUALLY LIKELY...A SMALL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY LONGER LIVED UPDRAFT TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ...SRN NM TO SCNTRL TX... PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM SRN NM ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WAS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING IN THE DRIER AIR MASS NORTHEAST OF BIG BEND...AND NORTH OF ELP. A NUMBER OF FORCING MECHANISMS...LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE...WILL PLAY INTO TSTM EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL AID IN FOCUSING LOW LEVEL ASCENT WHILE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST OVER A LARGE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CA/AZ UPPER LOW. WHILE STORMS FROM NM ACROSS WEST TX SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY...SHEAR/DYNAMIC FORCING...LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CHANCE OF HAIL/WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF ONGOING STORM IN TERRELL COUNTY TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION COUPLES WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY. FRONTAL ZONE ALSO INTERSECTS REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LA MCS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP/INITIATE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GENERALLY HIGH LFC. HOWEVER...LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF SR FLOW AND LOWER LFC NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO IF AN ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHWEST... TSTMS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ/NM...AS WELL AS BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. REGION EXPERIENCING STRONGEST LIFT/DESTABILIZATION IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. NONETHELESS...A FEW HAIL EVENTS ARE QUITE LIKELY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS AND PERHAPS BRIEF FUNNELS. ..CARBIN.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 23:41:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:41:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502240106.j1O16bDQ014411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240104 SWODY1 SPC AC 240102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 30 WSW VCT COT DRT 45 ENE P07 SJT ACT LFK 25 NNW LCH 25 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MRY 30 SE SCK 15 NW BIH 10 ESE TPH MLF U28 MTJ CVS 55 NE BGS 40 N FTW HOT MEM MSL 45 SE LOZ TRI CLT 10 E SOP 40 ESE EWN ...CONT... VRB 15 N SRQ ...CONT... 35 SSE DMN 25 SSW SVC 30 NE FHU 35 WSW FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...IN THE WAKE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH CONFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE RIDGE AND INTRUSION OF DEEPER COLD AIR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL POSE PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN...LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE FRONTAL BAND. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT RISK OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN STRONGER CELLS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS REGION... WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. COLD AIR ALOFT AND FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL APPROACHING...OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING...SEVERE LIMITS...GIVEN FAVORABLE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS. EXCEPTION MAY BE COASTAL GEORGIA/CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...WHERE/WHEN STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL COMMENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING AIR MASS OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 04:27:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 23:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502240552.j1O5qG2M003464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240550 SWODY1 SPC AC 240548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAB 15 NNW PIE ...CONT... PFN ABY MCN 30 ESE CLT RDU 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF P07 JCT AUS LFK POE 35 W BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER 35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ GUP TCS 35 WNW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST...BUT MODELS DO INDICATE NORTHWESTERN U.S. CENTER OF HIGH HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL BOTH WEAKEN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...CONFLUENCE OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES. PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ...SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE MORE RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE-BASED COLD INTRUSION...WHICH...BY 24/12Z...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS RISK OF STRONGER STORMS TO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR/ NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ARIZONA LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/ DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR STORMS WITH HAIL TODAY. POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WHEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL BE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPEED MAXIMUM PROGRESSING SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA BORDER. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST... MODELS SUGGEST INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OUTER BANKS AREA OF NORTH CAROLINA TO SUPPORT MENTION/OUTLOOK OF AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. CURRENT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OFF COASTAL AREAS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS. IF IT OCCURS...INLAND INTRUSION OF WARM SECTOR ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/ OUTER BANKS AREA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS. ..KERR.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 10:32:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 05:32:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502241157.j1OBviPs005160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241155 SWODY1 SPC AC 241154 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 10 NE ALI 10 WNW PSX 10 NNE HOU 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN MAI 30 E MCN CAE GSB 25 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER 35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB MAF BWD DAL SHV BTR 10 ESE BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS MORNING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST... ...TX... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE BAND OF RATHER STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MCS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS /REF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 38 AND 39/. ...AZ/NM... POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINS OVER AZ AND WESTERN NM TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL IN THIS REGION TODAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ..HART.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 14:53:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 09:53:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502241618.j1OGIw6E016315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241614 SWODY1 SPC AC 241613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER 35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 SE INK 30 SSW SAT 10 ESE VCT 40 ESE LFK BTR 10 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ 15 NNW VLD 55 S AGS 15 SE CAE GSB 25 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE COLD TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER NERN U.S...THE OLD SWRN UPPER LOW HAS STALLED ITS ERN MOVEMENT UNDER THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER PAC NW. E/W COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL TX CONTINUES SLOW SWD MOVEMENT HOWEVER PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE FROM TX COAST. ...S TX... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD DEEP S TX THIS AM AND WILL BE THRU BRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY VICINITY LOWER RIO GRANDE WHERE THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE AVAILABLE. WHILE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...HAVE CONTINUED A LOW RISK FOR POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL AVAILABLE S OF COLD FRONT. ...AZ... OLD UPPER LOW HAS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AM NWRN MARICOPA CO. WITH LOW TRAPPED UNDER THE NWRN U.S. UPPER HIGH...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CIRCULATION CENTER WILL POSSIBLY DRIFT BACK TO THE W OR NW. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE RADAR ANIMATION OF THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER MARICOPA CO. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WITH 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES AZ INTO SRN CA COUPLED WITH HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BECOME COMMON FROM SRN CA MTS EWD ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIALLY MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAIL...POSSIBLY NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SCENTRAL AZ. ..HALES.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 18:41:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 13:41:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502242006.j1OK6bZp030420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242002 SWODY1 SPC AC 242001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ AYS 40 WNW CHS 30 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NNE MER 40 W TPH 40 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 ESE INK 30 ESE HDO 45 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 35 NW POE 40 NNW ESF 20 NE HEZ 40 NNW MOB 35 SSE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL SRN/SERN LA... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN GULF. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS HAD MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE AN E-W BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF HAD RETREATED NWD TO ALONG THE SRN/SERN LA COAST. 60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED 60-70 MILES S/SSW OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST WITH THE BOW STRUCTURE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW. ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SRN/SERN LA COAST WHERE THE E-W BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH 00Z. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH EACH OF THE SHORT WAVES HAVE ALLOWED CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PER VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION. HAIL WITH SOME REPORTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SMALL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 20:06:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 15:06:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502242131.j1OLVl4c009725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242121 SWODY1 SPC AC 242119 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HUM HUM 15 SE MSY 35 SSW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ AYS 40 WNW CHS 30 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NNE MER 40 W TPH 40 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 ESE INK 30 ESE HDO 45 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 35 NW POE 40 NNW ESF 20 NE HEZ 40 NNW MOB 35 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA... AMENDED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF SERN LA TO A SLIGHT RISK ...COASTAL SERN LA... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF MCS/BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN GULF TO JUST INLAND OF SRN LA IN TERREBONNE COUNTY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W BOUNDARY HAD RETREATED NWD TO ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SERN LA COAST. 60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE BOW ECHO...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW. ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SRN/SERN LA COAST WHERE THE E-W BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH 00Z. ...DISCUSSION FROM 20Z... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH EACH OF THE SHORT WAVES HAVE ALLOWED CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PER VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION. HAIL WITH SOME REPORTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SMALL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 23:12:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 18:12:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502250038.j1P0c47l008527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250035 SWODY1 SPC AC 250033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM 20 N MSY 30 SSE LUL TOI 20 SSE MCN 45 SSW CHS ...CONT... DAB 40 SSE GNV 60 NNE PIE 35 ENE SRQ 40 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW VBG 10 N PRB 40 NW BFL 30 ENE SCK 25 WSW TVL 50 SSE BIH 35 NW P38 15 SSE MTJ 55 ESE DRO GUP 60 E SOW 20 W ALM 30 SE ELP 40 WNW MRF 95 SW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... GIVEN FAVORABLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING/ OROGRAPHY BENEATH ELONGATED SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH PASSAGE OF PEAK HEATING...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AS BLOCK IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEAKENS... AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACCELERATES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... STRONGER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ALREADY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. A CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TENDENCY FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH COASTAL WATERS WEST/NORTHEAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECAME FOCUSED SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER THIS EVENING SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE. ..KERR.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 04:23:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 23:23:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502250548.j1P5mD7W021239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250546 SWODY1 SPC AC 250544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 40 ESE PRB 30 SSW FAT 30 SSE SCK 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 50 SSE NFL 50 SSE U31 10 W ELY 10 W SLC 45 ESE VEL GJT FMN GNT 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH CENTER. THIS PROCESS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING/FLATTENING CREST OF RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS HIGH WEAKENS...SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT TO MAJOR AXIS OF BROADENING SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION IS PROGGED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN CYCLONIC BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE... IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS TO BE PHASING WITH STRONG BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TONIGHT. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUOY/SHIP DATA AND LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... WHICH NOW APPEARS MOSTLY CORRELATED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AS EXIT REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET NOSES EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU ...ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH DAYBREAK... MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL PERSIST. THIS CLUSTER MAY APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS 12Z. EARLY INLAND DEVELOPMENT MAY PRECLUDE CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA...PROVIDING PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT. LOW/MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF 20 TO 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH WEAK WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH CONVECTION... BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS/SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT ANY LINGERING DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHY APPEAR LIKELY TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON CAPE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SMALL HAIL IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...TEXAS... COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST IN THE LEE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...AND MUCH OF THE GULF STATES. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES ACROSS BAJA AND THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER TODAY/TONIGHT... FOCUSED AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE PLATEAU...ABOVE INVERSION LAYER INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER AND WEAKNESS OF ELEVATED CAPE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 11:13:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 06:13:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502251238.j1PCcY00017262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251236 SWODY1 SPC AC 251234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 40 ESE PRB 30 SSW FAT 30 SSE SCK 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 50 SSE NFL 50 SSE U31 10 W ELY 10 W SLC 45 ESE VEL 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS GNT 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ...MAINTAINING COOL CYCLONIC CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S. AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM REX-TYPE PATTERN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS /1/ PART OF THE SW U.S. UPPER LOW SHEARS E/NE INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS AND /2/ ANTICYCLONIC MEMBER NOW OVER ID/WY RETROGRESSES WWD. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS WILL SETTLE S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRESH SURGE OF POLAR AIR THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF SURFACE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE NERN STATES. ...FL... FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE NRN GULF DURING THE PAST 18 HRS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND CROSS CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW EMBEDDED...WEAKLY ROTATING CELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG PER KM/ LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT VERY LIMITED. FARTHER S...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELATED TO A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE SRN QUARTER OF THE PENINSULA. BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CLEAR THE STATE... SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES LATER THIS MORNING. BUT LINEAR CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN THIS REGION AS WELL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ...TX... LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY EARLY SATURDAY AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW WELL W OF BAJA CA ACCELERATES ENE INTO MEXICO. INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER NRN MEXICO THAT MAY EXPAND NWD/EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN AND SW TX. GIVEN EXPECTED DEPTH OF POLAR AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER REGION...IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE WHICH WILL DEVELOP WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO YIELD SEVERE HAIL N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ...SWRN U.S.... RESIDUAL POCKET OF COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION/ THUNDER OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE SIZE OF ANY ASSOCIATED HAIL STONES SMALL. ..CORFIDI.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 15:11:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 10:11:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502251636.j1PGaRcK012656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251622 SWODY1 SPC AC 251619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 30 SSW FAT 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 75 SW ELY 45 NNW GJT 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... PAIR OF SURFACE FRONTS EXTEND ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS FL THIS MORNING. SRN MOST BOUNDARY IS DELINEATING A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM JUST SOUTH OF PBI SWWD INTO NRN MONROE COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SBCAPES ARE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY. PRIMARY NEGATIVE CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT WASHES OUT TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ARE SWLY WHILE ONLY WEAK/CALM WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND IT...SUGGESTING CONVECTION MAY REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS SMALL WARM SECTOR. CONVERGENCE REMAINS MUCH STRONGER NEAR PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND MODEST SBCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES AND SUSTAIN STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION... THOUGH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER SWRN TX AND NERN MEXICO...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT INTO THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY THEREFORE SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. ...CA INTO THE 4-CORNERS... MEANDERING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY AS BROAD POCKET OF -22C TO -24C H5 AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THUS...REGION SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 18:36:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 13:36:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502252001.j1PK1jeL005112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252000 SWODY1 SPC AC 251958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 30 SSW FAT 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 75 SW ELY 45 NNW GJT 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS 75 NNW SVC 30 SSE SAD 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY 12Z SATURDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WITH A WEAK LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL...AND A DEVELOPING LOW NE OF MLB. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS FAR SRN FL... WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF SPREADING EWD AND FURTHER INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STRONGER STORMS...WITH A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INLAND WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. FARTHER S...THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF SRN FL...LIMITING A SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS PORTION OF MAINLAND FL. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD TOWARD THE LOWER FL KEYS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS THEY ARE UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ...CA INTO THE 4-CORNERS... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR/ INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 23:15:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 18:15:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502260040.j1Q0ee3U001314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260038 SWODY1 SPC AC 260036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PIE 10 NE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 15 NNW SMX 45 ESE MRY 50 SSW MER 45 NE PRB 40 W BFL BFL FAT SAC UKI ACV 20 SW MHS 45 SW SVE RNO P38 U17 FMN GNT 65 SSW GNT PHX 60 ESE BLH 10 SSW YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 50 NNE MRF 40 SSE MAF SJT 10 S AUS 20 NNW VCT 30 E CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING UPPER HIGH/LOW COUPLET OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT AT LESSER AMPLITUDE THAN IN RECENT DAYS...AS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS FLATTENED CREST OF RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. OF MORE CONCERN TO THE SHORTER TERM CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...PROGRESSING INTO/ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPEARS TO PHASING WITH AN IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SHORT WAVE RIDGING...NOW AMPLIFYING IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REGION...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... WHILE SUBTLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITH ELONGATING SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION MAY HAVE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...MOST PROMINENT FORCING APPEARS TO BE HEATING/OROGRAPHY BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RAPID DECREASE IN ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN OCCUR AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... STABILIZING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LINGERING THREAT SHOULD END BY/SHORTLY AFTER 26/06Z...AS WARMING MID-LEVELS STRENGTHEN INHIBITION ACROSS REGION. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... MODELS SUGGEST EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY INFLUX OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY 26/12Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ABOVE DEEP INVERSION LAYER...WITH LIMITED CAPE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..KERR.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 04:32:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 23:32:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502260557.j1Q5vSue003121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SEP PRX ELD 45 ESE LUL 15 SSE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 50 WSW EED BIH 35 E SAC SVE LOL U31 35 NW MLF PUC GJT 10 NE 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND RE-AMPLIFICATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST BROADER SCALE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL FINALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INTERACTING IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAMS APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MODEL VARIABILITY... PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND AREAS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST. LATEST NAM RUN FORECASTS STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT THAN THE GFS. THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR ON NORTHERN EDGE OF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD FORM ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN IF NAM VERIFIES CLOSER THAN GFS...CURRENT STATE OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR EVEN IN COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS/LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. ...TEXAS/LOUISIANA... MID/UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ONGOING. AS EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...LAPSE RATES ABOVE STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD...WITH POSSIBLE CONTINUING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. THIS MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. ...GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BEFORE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ..KERR.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 11:29:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 06:29:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502261254.j1QCsYWA008020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261253 SWODY1 SPC AC 261251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SEP PRX ELD 45 ESE LUL 15 SSE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 50 WSW EED BIH 35 E SAC SVE 15 ENE LOL 60 E ELY 45 S VEL 10 WNW 4FC 45 W PUB 10 N 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS CONCERNED WILL BE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW CROSSING BAJA CA. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED THAN PROGGED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...A FACTOR WHICH MAY AFFECT SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WRN PART OF FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS BAJA SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD LATER TODAY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. IT SHOULD REACH THE NRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE S OF BVE/MOB. FARTHER W...AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE FLUXES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. ...TX/LA... EXPECT RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING BAJA UPPER SYSTEM TO EXPAND NWD AND EWD ACROSS TX AND THE NW GULF CSTL REGION LATER TODAY. RAIN FALLING INTO EXISTING CP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ONSHORE AIR MASS RECOVERY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT GRADUAL STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM W TO E...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLUX AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPPER IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTION/SCATTERED THUNDER FROM S TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND. ..CORFIDI.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 14:52:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 09:52:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502261617.j1QGHSBp019915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261614 SWODY1 SPC AC 261612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 25 W CLL 40 S SHV 35 W MCB 20 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 40 N SAN 30 NNE OXR 20 SE SAC SVE 15 ENE LOL 60 E ELY 45 S VEL 10 WNW 4FC 45 W PUB 10 N 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PIE 30 N DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST INTO SRN ROCKIES... APPEARS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION AS COOL MID LEVELS AND AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AOB -24C FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPES TO 500 J/KG. THOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...STORMS WHICH CAN FORM NEARER THE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN CA MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ...FL... HAVE ADDED A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN FL AS FORECAST AND MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LIMITED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. ...TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS ENEWD THROUGH TONIGHT...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION AS MID LEVELS COOL AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..EVANS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 18:41:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 13:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502262006.j1QK6rEw025083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 262002 SWODY1 SPC AC 262000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 30 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 25 W CLL 40 S SHV MCB 25 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS GBN 40 N SAN 30 NNE OXR SAC SVE 55 SW ENV 60 ENE ELY 45 S VEL 25 SW FCL 10 ENE COS 55 WSW RTN 10 NE 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST INTO SRN ROCKIES... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN SEWD TO SERN AZ/SWRN NM. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF ASCENT LOCATED WITHIN BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CA TO THE ROCKIES ATOP SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT SOME HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN CA WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...FL... ALTHOUGH MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH WEAK...FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED CU IS STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT/ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION. A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. ...TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... VIS/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX TOWARD OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS OVER SRN/ERN TX WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION...COMBINED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WAS BEING MAXIMIZED FOR SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE CONFINED TO THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING SLY LLJ INTO THE TX COAST THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD WILL ADVECT HIGHER THETAE AIR NWD ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THEN NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AVAILABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX COAST TOWARD SRN LA. ..PETERS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 23:11:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 18:11:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502270036.j1R0aqFL007413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270034 SWODY1 SPC AC 270032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 15 ENE CEW 30 E MAI 20 NNE CTY 45 ESE JAX ...CONT... 45 N BRO 40 NW VCT 40 ENE LFK 30 NNE BTR 40 S GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 50 E YUM 15 WSW TRM 10 ESE MER 40 NE SCK 20 N NFL 30 NNW ELY 45 ENE MLF 45 ESE CNY 35 ESE ASE 30 WSW PUB 55 WSW RTN 10 NE 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM SERN NV INTO E-CNTRL AZ AND SWRN NM. DESPITE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING INVOF THIS SHEAR AXIS...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ...GULF COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER OVER TX WITH ASSOCIATED 130 KT SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS /PER 00Z BRO/CRP OBSERVATIONS/ OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM S OF BUOY 42002 IN THE WRN GULF EWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO FIRST DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NWRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE TX/LA COASTS. SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NERN GULF BASIN AS LLJ AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WAA SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-JET AXIS. ..MEAD.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 04:02:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 23:02:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502270527.j1R5RTr6026020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270525 SWODY1 SPC AC 270523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AQQ 20 SW TLH 30 NW SAV 20 NW OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 40 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 60 WSW JCT 25 SE DMN 10 E PHX 40 SSE PRC 25 WSW INW 40 WSW GNT 45 NNE SAF 15 W LAA 25 NE DDC 30 SSW END 35 W ADM 35 SW PRX 35 SE MLU 15 SE BHM 25 ENE AHN 30 NE LYH 25 S WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NEWD TO THE NC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRANCH OF SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TX AND ADJACENT NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/NRN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS...UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER S-CNTRL CANADA WILL DIVE SSEWD...REACHING LOWER MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE ERN FL PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TO THE NC COAST BY 28/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. FARTHER NW...COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH SWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN IL INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. ...FL NEWD TO THE NC COAST... EXPECT TSTMS TO BE ONGOING AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FROM THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY N OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. HERE...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 M/S/ WILL EXIST WITHIN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP OWING TO ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP NEAR WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PROBABLE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE NEWD ACROSS SERN GA AND THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ALONG TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RESULTING FROM PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..MEAD.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 11:13:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 06:13:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502271238.j1RCcj5H017087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271236 SWODY1 SPC AC 271234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AQQ MGR 10 SE SAV 10 SSE CRE 20 NNW OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 50 SW SJT 25 SE DMN 10 E PHX 40 SSE PRC 25 WSW INW 40 WSW GNT 45 NNE SAF 35 NNE TAD 35 SE DEN 45 NNW 4FC 20 NNW RWL 25 ENE CPR 30 W BFF 15 NNW IML 30 ESE GLD 25 NNE DDC 30 SSW END 35 W ADM 35 SW PRX 35 SE MLU 15 SE BHM 25 ENE AHN 30 NE LYH 25 S WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE S ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY STRONG SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/NE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS PERIOD AS WEAKER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CO/NRN NM SAGS SE INTO TX. SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH...ATTM CENTERED AROUND 200 MILES SSW OF BVE...SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS ENE ACROSS N FL LATER TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE REDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE NE FL CST. ...FL/SE GA... CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AS WARM FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF FMY TO NEAR VRB...LIFTS NWD TO NEAR JAX. PRESSURE FALL PATTERN OVER FL AND THE CNTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WAVE NOW S OF BVE WILL TRACK ENE TOWARD N FL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW OVER S FL TO SPREAD NWD TO NEAR CTY/GNV/JAX. CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL MCS OFF THE WRN FL CST WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL FL AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. BUT EVEN WITH ONLY MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BOOST AVERAGE SBCAPE TO AOA 500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM TPA TO GNV. GIVEN CONVERGENT NATURE OF FLOW FIELD...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BOTH ALONG WARM FRONT AND WITHIN WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 60-70 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE N CNTRL GULF. AS THE SPEED MAX CONTINUES EWD...DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AOA 60 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS...MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM GULF SURFACE WAVE LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. VEERED LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED. ...ERN CAROLINAS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS CURRENT OF COLD AIR IS BEING FED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN WAKE OF DEEP CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW. THE SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AUGMENTED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF RAIN FALLING INTO IT. IN ADDITION... SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE GULF SURFACE WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER IT HAS REDEVELOPED OFF THE NE CST OF FL. THUS... EXPECT THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC CST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARM SECTOR MAY...HOWEVER...CLIP THE CAPE FEAR AREA OF NC EARLY MONDAY...WHERE THE KINEMATIC SETUP WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. BUT WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...SEVERE POTENTIAL INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ...TX PNHDL TO W CNTRL TX... WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CO/NM VORT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX LATER TODAY. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AT MID LEVELS /AOB MINUS 24C AT 500 MB/...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR... INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..CORFIDI.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 15:05:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 10:05:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502271630.j1RGUAeV010048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271627 SWODY1 SPC AC 271626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SW AYS 10 ESE SAV 10 SSE CRE 20 NNW OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 20 NNW BTR 20 E LUL 20 WNW AUO 35 S AHN 20 ENE CLT 10 NNE RDU 10 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL 15 WSW JCT 25 S INK 40 SE DMN 15 E PHX 35 SE PRC 10 SW INW 40 S GUP 45 NNW LVS 35 S PUB 20 SSW FCL 25 NNE AKO 45 N GAG 20 S FSI 25 SSW DAL 20 S TPL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO THE GA/SC/NC COAST... ...FL TO GA/SC/NC COAST.... LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF MID/UPPER WAVE NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NRN FL LATER TODAY AND LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GA/SC COAST OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL-DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL FL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS INTO NRN FL WILL ALLOW THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO LIFT NWD INTO NERN FL BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING NOW OCCURRING OVER SRN FL WILL ENHANCE SBCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NNEWD DURING THE PERIOD...BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED SHEAR AND INCREASING SBCAPES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF FL TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL LATER TONIGHT. SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAINTAIN A MORE SLY COMPONENT AND NEAR LOW CENTER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GRADUAL VEERING OF THE SFC-H85 WINDS TODAY ACROSS FL MAY SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR NATURE TO CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. ...NWRN TX... MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK LATER TODAY. DESPITE THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT BECOME ADEQUATE FOR MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD. ..EVANS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 18:44:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 13:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502272008.j1RK8vWc002366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272006 SWODY1 SPC AC 272004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH 20 SW AYS 10 ESE SAV 10 SSW CRE 25 N OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 35 SW BFL SBA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 40 E LUL SEM 20 WNW AUO 35 S AHN 20 ENE CLT 10 NNE RDU 20 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL 15 WSW JCT 30 WNW FST 40 SE DMN 15 E PHX 35 SE PRC 20 NNE INW 35 NNW GUP 50 NNE SAF 30 NE ALS 20 SSW FCL 25 NNE AKO 45 N GAG 20 S FSI 25 SSW DAL 20 S TPL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL TO THE GA/SC/NC COAST...... ...FL TO GA/SC/NC COAST... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF TO NRN FL AND OFF THE GA/NRN FL COAST. THIS IS THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A COOLER MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ACROSS GA/SC IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM MOVING INLAND OVER SC. THIS FURTHER SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AREA VADS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER SRN FL...MAINLY SOUTH OF WW 041...ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SW... INDICATIVE THAT STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM SRN FL. THUS...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD...AND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NRN FL TO THE GA COAST BY 00-03Z. A SECOND EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...NWRN TX... LIGHTNING DATA/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN NM IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX AT THIS TIME. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/NWRN TX...WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 23:34:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 18:34:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502280059.j1S0xIfl029131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280056 SWODY1 SPC AC 280055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 35 SW BFL SBA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PSX 15 NNW NIR 10 N FST 20 WNW ELP SVC 70 WNW TCS 40 WSW ABQ 20 W LVS 30 S CAO 25 S GAG FSI 30 NE HOU 40 ENE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY AYS 30 NNW CAE 30 SE DAN 20 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... 00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED 998 MB SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE FL COAST E OF JAX WITH A RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FARTHER N ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTIONS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST TO THE E/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OWING TO STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ATTM APPEARS TO BE THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY AND NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA... TRAILING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA /JUST S OF CTY/ AND INTO THE ERN GULF TO S OF BUOY 42036. 00Z TBW...MFL AND EYW SOUNDINGS ALL STILL INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTING TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW SOME WEAK SIGNAL ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR TBW LATE TONIGHT. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...WRN INTO CNTRL TX... TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM VICINITY OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN PNHDL/S PLAINS SEWD TO E OF BWD. RATHER STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL S OF LBB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OWING TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 04:11:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 23:11:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502280536.j1S5a3MS004248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280533 SWODY1 SPC AC 280531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI 35 W EAT 55 W PDT 25 SSE RDM 15 NW LMT CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 10 S SAT 40 WNW AUS 20 NE TPL 45 ENE CLL 25 ENE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG...SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SERN STATES. FARTHER N...STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS /CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY AND TX WILL/ WITH RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY. IN THE W...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH PROGRESS EWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INTENSE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. ...TX... TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ...WA/ORE... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 43N/130W WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LOW AND ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE... THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT APPEARS THE BEST COUPLING OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER COASTAL AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WA/ORE TODAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS. ..MEAD.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 11:41:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 06:41:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502281305.j1SD5uaN028807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281303 SWODY1 SPC AC 281301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 50 WNW EAT 15 W YKM 15 NE RDM 45 S EUG 30 N OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE MID MS VLY DEEPENS EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. FAST SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MEXICO/THE NRN GULF AND FL...WHILE SYSTEM NOW ENTERING ORE WEAKENS IN LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST WILL EDGE SLOWLY S ACROSS EXTREME SRN FL TODAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FL STRAITS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...EXTREME S FL... A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN STREAM JET...ATTM OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE S FL REGION AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. 50-60 KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIKELY BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...WA/ORE... A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY REMNANT UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SYSTEM CROSSING WRN WA/ORE. ...NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVER NRN PORTIONS OF MS...AL AND GA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID MS VLY TROUGH GLANCES REGION. EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A THUNDER AREA ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 15:01:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 10:01:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502281626.j1SGQpUR011127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281624 SWODY1 SPC AC 281622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 50 WNW EAT 40 N DLS 25 WNW RDM 45 S EUG 30 N OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AND FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS INTO THE BAHAMAS AT 16Z. THUS... EXPECT MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NNEWD NEAR THE KEYS TODAY. ALSO...MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO SRN FL AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR PBI TO JUST SOUTH OF APF AT 16Z. THOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR...THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONVERGENCE SUFFICE. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND AROUND SEVERE LEVELS AND WARRANTS MAINTAINING LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...PAC NW... UPPER LOW AND ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ..EVANS.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 18:37:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 13:37:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502282002.j1SK26JZ021402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282000 SWODY1 SPC AC 281958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... TSTMS ARE PERSISTING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. AIRMASS INVOF THE FRONT WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SRN TIP OF FL AND THE KEYS. DESPITE WLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG SHEAR COULD STILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 23:30:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 18:30:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503010055.j210t7Wp000595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010052 SWODY1 SPC AC 010050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW ELY 55 E ELY 40 SW PUC 25 SE U17 45 NNW INW 25 NNW PRC 25 SSE IGM 20 S LAS 50 NNE DRA 65 SW ELY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NV...UT AND AZ... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NV INTO WRN UT AND FAR NWRN AZ. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS REGION AND THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION. 00Z DESERT ROCK SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND A SBCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG. GIVEN THESE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EWD INTO UT AND NRN AZ. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES. ELSEWHERE...00Z DULLES SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SOME INSTABILITY FROM AROUND 550 TO 400 MB WITHIN A PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE EXHIBITING SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WHERE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING IS COINCIDENT WITH SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES /PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. FINALLY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED OVER NERN ORE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AREA. 00Z BOI SOUNDING DID INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WAS QUITE MARGINAL. THOUGH A FEW STRIKES MAY WELL CONTINUE TO PORTIONS OF THE ID PNHDL TONIGHT....OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..MEAD.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 05:43:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 00:43:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502010546.j115kXn5005533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010544 SWODY1 SPC AC 010542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST MON JAN 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 25 NE MFE 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 25 SE FST 25 SE SJT 15 SSW MWL 10 S DAL 50 WSW TYR 40 E CLL 45 NE HOU 15 SW HEZ 15 SSW LUL 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL BE EJECTED EWD TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS ORE/ NRN NV...CONTINUES TO DIG SWD TOWARD THE SWRN STATES. MEANWHILE... NWRN MEXICO SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE NEWD REACHING CENTRAL TX BY 00Z...AND THEN OVER AR AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. NNELY SURFACE WINDS OVER MUCH OF TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE NWRN AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF. ...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... WEAK SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF LA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN WAA REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MS/SWRN AL. AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES EWD...WAA CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN TX AT 12Z TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE NWRN MEXICO TROUGH...WITH WAA INCREASING OVER THIS REGION. WAA PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR AN INCREASING TREND IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL TO SERN TX. THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE/DEVELOP NEWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 75 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS OVER THIS REGION AND LLJ VEERS. ELEVATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITHIN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA THIS PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 12:55:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 07:55:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502011258.j11CwpH5010703@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011255 SWODY1 SPC AC 011254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 25 NE MFE 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 ESE FST 40 NNW SJT 35 NW SEP 35 WNW TYR 10 SW SHV 25 SW JAN 35 SSE MEI 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD OVER TX BY THIS EVENING AND LA/AR LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING SWD OVER NV/CA. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING FROM S CENTRAL TO SE TX IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA...WHILE MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG BASED FROM 850-700 MB IS SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD FROM TX AND THE NW GULF EWD/NEWD ACROSS SRN LA/MS/AL. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER W FROM THE BIG BEND NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE MID LEVELS /600-400 MB/. AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /NEAR OR JUST S OF THE LA COAST / IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF RAINFALL INTO THE EXISTING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS INLAND...AND THE DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY LATER TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 16:30:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 11:30:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502011635.j11GZOhc005268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011631 SWODY1 SPC AC 011629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 15 N MFE 60 WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SW MRF FST SJT SEP SHV MLU MEI 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TX THIS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA/MS. PRIMARY WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST OFFSHORE...LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NORTHWEST... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX. ..HART.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 1 19:28:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 14:28:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502011931.j11JVTUM013988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011929 SWODY1 SPC AC 011927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 30 NNE LRD 45 NE DRT 20 NNE JCT 35 ESE BWD 35 NE ACT 25 W SHV 20 WNW MLU 40 NW JAN 25 WNW MEI 40 SE MEI 45 NE MOB 30 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ASCENT AND MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. EARLIER ACTIVITY LINKED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN LA DIMINISHED RAPIDLY THROUGH LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. STORMS OVER LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ELEVATED IN NATURE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 00:56:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 19:56:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502020059.j120xKmK005045@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020057 SWODY1 SPC AC 020055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N BRO 45 ESE LRD 50 S SAT 25 NNW SAT 50 WNW TPL 35 NE ACT 20 SSE GGG 35 NNE MLU 20 S GWO 20 S 0A8 45 WSW TOI 50 NNW PNS 30 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE TX TO LWR MS VLY... WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER/VWP DATA ATTM SHOW UPR LOW ON THE CO/NM BORDER EDGING SLOWLY E...WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER W TX LIFTS NEWD AT A SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID RATE TOWARD THE N CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO SE OK/SW AR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS E INTO NW OK. AT LOWER LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL FL WNW INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE CNTRL LA CST. A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INVOF THE TROUGH/FRONT INTERSECTION...AND THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK NE INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG 925/850 MB FRONT OVER SE TX TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD E/NE INTO NRN LA/CNTRL MS BY MORNING. FARTHER SE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER EXTREME SE LA DURING THE 09-12Z PERIOD AS GULF SURFACE WAVE NEARS REGION. DEEP SW TO WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OVER SRN LA BY MORNING AS 70 KT SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TX SPEED MAX ENTERS NW LA. BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /MUCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG/ GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES...ABSENCE OF SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED COOL...LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE FLOW FROM RAIN AREA OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. AS A RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT OVER SE LA SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 05:29:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502020531.j125VpPs019025@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020529 SWODY1 SPC AC 020527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE JAX 30 S CTY ...CONT... 40 W HUM 30 WSW MCB 25 NW JAN 15 WSW TUP 15 SE CSV 25 SW 5I3 15 NNE PSK 15 WSW GSO 30 E CAE 25 E CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD... DOWNSTREAM FROM RIDGE ALONG THE N PACIFIC CST. AS RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NWRN STATES...EXPECT UPPER LOW NOW OVER NRN NM/SRN CO TO SHEAR SLOWLY E/NE ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN MO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT... BEFORE REACHING CNTRL KY BY 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER SW...IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD SETTLE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN BAJA. AT LOWER LEVELS...CURRENT SURFACE DATA AND THE 00Z GFS/NAM OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR BVE IN EXTREME SE LA AT 12Z. WHILE THE WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NE TO NEAR MOB BY MIDDAY...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD WEAKEN AS /1/ UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NWD INTO MO...AND /2/ THE FEATURE ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT INFLOW OF COOL...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE ERN GULF CST. ...EXTREME SE LA AND CNTRL GULF CST... A LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER EXTREME SE LA...INVOF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD NE TO THE MS/AL AND WRN FL GULF CST TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE AMPLE /50 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF SURFACE HEATING. THUS...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 12:43:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 07:43:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502021246.j12CkCkR021480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021243 SWODY1 SPC AC 021241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 35 ESE MCB 35 E MEI 30 SSW ANB 30 SSW ATL 20 ENE MCN 60 SE MCN 35 E VLD 15 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE SWRN STATES...AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC COASTS. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/SW...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING ENEWD OVER OK THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM INVOF NRN BAJA CA. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SE...ALONG AND SE OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM ERN OK TO THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR REMAINS OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NRN GULF...WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM THE NRN GULF ACROSS SE LA INTO SRN MS/AL WITHIN A BELT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 16:21:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 11:21:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502021624.j12GOYQS010056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021621 SWODY1 SPC AC 021619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 25 NW GPT 50 E MEI 45 SSW ANB 30 ENE LGC MCN 60 SE MCN 35 E VLD 15 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN OK IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE WRN TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN LA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...MOVING TO NEAR MOB BY THIS EVENING AND MAI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG SRN APPALACHIANS WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT NEWD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN BAND OF MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM SERN LA INTO SWRN AL...AND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL...NWRN FL AND GA WITHIN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE COOL SURFACE LAYER. ..WEISS.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 2 19:44:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 14:44:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502021947.j12JlQ4Y000606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021944 SWODY1 SPC AC 021943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 25 NW GPT 50 E MEI 45 SSW ANB 30 ENE LGC MCN 60 SE MCN 35 E VLD 15 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH... ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THIS SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. ..CARBIN.. 02/02/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 00:57:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 19:57:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502030100.j13107V5001993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030057 SWODY1 SPC AC 030055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 30 SSW MGM 40 SSW ANB 35 ENE ANB 30 WSW AHN 45 SW AGS 30 NNE AYS 35 N GNV PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN AL SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL... SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH PARTS OF SERN AL...CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET MOVE EWD. THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA SHOW VERY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 100-300 J/KG. OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY REMAINED CONFINED TO SRN THROUGH CNTRL GA AND ERN AL WHERE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 05:35:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 00:35:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502030538.j135cQa7006569@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030536 SWODY1 SPC AC 030534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST WED FEB 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW VRB 25 W FMY ...CONT... 15 SSE PFN 10 SW ABY 30 ENE MCN 35 S SPA 35 E CLT 10 NNE FAY 35 SE OAJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL...ERN GA AND SC... POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SWWD EXTENTION OF ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM ERN GA NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH THE DAY. OTHER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 12:51:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 07:51:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502031254.j13CsZjX030455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031253 SWODY1 SPC AC 031251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 30 NNW PIE ...CONT... 10 S PFN 20 WSW ABY 45 SSE AHN 40 ESE AND 40 NNE CAE 15 NW FLO CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER TN/KY WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND THEN SEWD TO OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ACROSS N FL AND GA. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS N FL/GA/SC THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 16:18:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 11:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502031621.j13GLaDN012309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031619 SWODY1 SPC AC 031617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD AND OFF THE GA/NERN FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SWD INTO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT. COOLING MID LEVELS AND WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT NO MORE THAN A SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 3 19:33:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 14:33:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502031936.j13JaObu027077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031933 SWODY1 SPC AC 031931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN FL... COLD FRONT IS MAKING SWD PROGRESS INTO NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 50S DEW POINTS ONLY GIVES AROUND 150 J/KG MUCAPE GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT TSTM PROBABILITIES FOR A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK. ..RACY.. 02/03/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 00:35:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 19:35:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502040038.j140cKJp029085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040036 SWODY1 SPC AC 040034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TAMPA AND MIAMI SHOW POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY SHALLOW LAYERS OF WEAK INSTABILITY. FURTHER STABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY SHALLOW AND INSTABILITY TOO LIMITED FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 05:27:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502040529.j145Tld5010502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040527 SWODY1 SPC AC 040526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI SEA 10 SE AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 30 NNW PHX 35 SSW INW 25 NE SOW 75 NE SAD 60 SSW DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN AZ... CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AS MID LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SRN AZ AND NM. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING COLDER AIR ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. ...NW WA... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER... MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 12:54:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 07:54:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502041257.j14CvTdT008986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041255 SWODY1 SPC AC 041253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06 45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 15 NE GBN 65 WSW SOW 40 E SOW 50 WNW TCS 20 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUING FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF CANADA. UPPER LOW IN SRN STREAM...NOW OFF THE BAJA CA CST...SHOULD LIFT NEWD INTO NW MEXICO AS NRN IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING THE WA CST SWEEPS E INTO THE NRN RCKYS. DRY AND/OR AIR OF POLAR ORIGIN WILL REMAIN DOMINANT AT LWR LEVELS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE RCKYS. ...AZ/NM... THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER NOW OVER NW MEXICO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK /PER WV IMAGERY/ THAT ROTATED AROUND BAJA UPPER LOW IN THE LAST 24 HRS. THE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD BEYOND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS /DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F/ W OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS. A SIMILAR BAND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER NRN MEXICO AS ANOTHER SPEED MAX LIFTS NE IN ERN QUADRANT OF LOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SE AZ/SW NM WITH SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. IN THE MEANTIME...DIURNAL HEATING AND MODEST OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT MAY LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS OVER SRN AZ. ...PAC NW... CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEEPEN OVER WRN WA TODAY AS PAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 25C/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION/ POSSIBLE THUNDER AS PASSAGE OF ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC CLOUD BAND ALLOWS FOR SURFACE HEATING LATER TODAY. ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD AS FAR E AS FAR NRN ID TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ..CORFIDI.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 16:15:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 11:15:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502041618.j14GIOKk017713@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041615 SWODY1 SPC AC 041614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06 45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 55 NW TUS 50 W SAD 45 WNW SVC 15 NW DMN 40 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL BAJA WILL BEGIN TO OPEN NEWD BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO PAC NW. OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SONORA APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED MAX/IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD AROUND CUT-OFF LOW. LIGHTNING IS ON THE DECREASE ATTM AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TUS/EPZ THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO CONUS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO SERN AZ/SWRN CORNER NM. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING SERN AZ/SWRN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE PAC NW...ACCOMPANIED BY MDT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE COLD FRONT WWD TO UPPER TROUGH LINE. COLD FRONT AT 15Z WAS LOCATED ALONG W SLOPES OF CASCADES AND WILL REACH NWRN MT BY 00Z. ..HALES.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 4 19:31:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 14:31:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502041934.j14JYJUF000947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041932 SWODY1 SPC AC 041930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06 45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 55 NW TUS 50 W SAD 45 WNW SVC 15 NW DMN 40 W ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW... VSBL SATL SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING/MOVING ONSHORE WITH TALLEST CLOUDS VCNTY OLYMPICS AND IN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. THERMODYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TSTMS AS COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION. TSTM RISK WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL END FROM WEST-EAST LATER TONIGHT AS WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES. ...SWRN STATES... UPPER LOW VCNTY BAJA SPUR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM CONVEYOR IS TRANSPORTING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO AZ/NM WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BECOMING EVIDENT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER. AS MOISTENING CONTINUES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH SONORA...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 02/04/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 00:46:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 19:46:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502050048.j150miCl013038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050047 SWODY1 SPC AC 050045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 15 ESE 63S 35 SSE 4OM 35 WNW EAT 15 NE OLM 15 SW HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 45 WNW TUS 45 NE TUS 20 SE SAD 25 SSW SVC 30 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN AZ THROUGH EXTREME SWRN NM... ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH NERN PORTION OF BAJA CUTOFF LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SRN AZ AND SWRN NM. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN S OF THE U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...NRN WA... SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND INTO WA STATE AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE UNDERNEATH MOIST ONSHORE WLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE NRN CASCADES. ..DIAL.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 05:36:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 00:36:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502050538.j155cZ4T003540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050536 SWODY1 SPC AC 050535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S GBN 15 NE PHX 35 SW INW 60 NE INW 45 SSW FMN 10 WNW 4SL 25 WSW LVS 50 WSW TCC 40 S CVS 35 SE HOB 35 ENE FST 25 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN STATES... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAJA AREA IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH SRN EXTENTION OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AZ DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF AZ AND NM AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...SRN PLAINS... OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER W TX WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM EJECTING UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX...N TX AND OK SATURDAY NIGHT. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN 10% COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..DIAL.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 15:41:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 10:41:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502051544.j15FiNqG028486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051540 SWODY1 SPC AC 051539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF BAJA IN THE PROCESS OF BEING KICKED NEWD AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND BY 12Z SUNDAY WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WHILE EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE TROPICAL ERN PAC...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE E OF SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO. A VERY COOL/STABLE RETURN FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS MEXICO INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL THRU TONIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE DROPPED THE EARLIER THUNDER FORECAST AS ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE REQUIRED 10 PERCENT COVERAGE. ..HALES.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 5 19:31:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 14:31:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502051933.j15JXwuE017258@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051931 SWODY1 SPC AC 051930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BAJA UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. WARM CONVEYOR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND SRN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-TROPICAL NATURE TO THE CONVEYOR IS LIMITING MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD LIGHTNING. MEANWHILE...WEST OF THE WARM CONVEYOR...STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED TSTMS ACROSS NRN SONORA/WRN CHIHUAHUA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM BORDER...BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE THEY CROSS INTO THE UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...A TSTM-FREE FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED CONUS-WIDE. ..RACY.. 02/05/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 00:38:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 19:38:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502060041.j160f5FD028244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060038 SWODY1 SPC AC 060036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SAT FEB 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DUG 40 SSW SVC 50 SSE TCS 45 SE ALM 10 NE GDP 50 SE GDP MRF 65 S MRF 70 S MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS MEXICO WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MTNS OF NRN MEXICO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD TOWARD WEST TX TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS SHOULD CROSS THE BORDER INTO SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 16:08:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 11:08:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502061611.j16GBJEM008887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061607 SWODY1 SPC AC 061606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX 50 N VCT 25 NNE AUS 15 NE FTW 15 SE MKO 30 N FYV SGF 25 SSE TBN 40 NNW POF 20 ESE POF 30 ESE PBF 25 WNW ESF 30 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 60 NNW SVC 20 WSW ABQ 15 SSE LVS 45 SE CVS 35 ESE HOB 40 WSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION WRN U.S. STRONG IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY THIS AM CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE WEAKER IMPULSES UPSTREAM...LOCATED OVER SWRN NM AND SRN CA WILL ALSO ROTATE E/NEWD IN STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. MORE VIGOROUS S/WV VICINITY VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL DROP SEWD INTO OR TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SRN PLAINS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ERN TX BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN MO OVERNIGHT. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE A CONCERN FOR A SEVERE THREAT. COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...MDT LAPSE RATES AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS...SUPPORT MAINTAINING A PRIMARILY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM AREA SRN HALF OF NM AND FAR SW TX. WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INSTABILITY WITH TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS PAC NW HAVE DROPPED THE EARLIER THUNDER FORECAST W OF CASCADES. ..HALES.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 6 19:34:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 14:34:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502061936.j16Jah8W016946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061934 SWODY1 SPC AC 061932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX 50 N VCT 25 NNE AUS 15 NE FTW 15 SE MKO 30 N FYV SGF 25 SSE TBN 40 NNW POF 20 ESE POF 30 ESE PBF 25 WNW ESF 30 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W DUG 35 N TUS 60 WSW SOW 50 ENE SOW 35 ESE GNT 15 SSE LVS 45 SE CVS 35 ESE HOB 40 WSW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E TX TO OZARKS... CONVERGENT BAND AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN TX AND A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE OZARKS AT MID-AFTERNOON. LLJ IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE NEWD AS FIRST MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATES INTO THE CORN BELT. MOST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS VLY THIS EVENING... WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS FARTHER S. ISOLD TSTMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING... BUT PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW GIVEN POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE NEARING FAR W TX AND CHIHUAHUA WILL TURN NEWD OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD TOWARD ERN TX AND OZARKS BY 12Z. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND ISOLD TSTMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN TX INTO SERN OK...AR AND SRN MO LATER TONIGHT. ...SRN ROCKIES... COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ATOP STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW DIURNAL TSTMS. ..RACY.. 02/06/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 7 00:54:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 19:54:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502070057.j170v6pT020288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070054 SWODY1 SPC AC 070053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CLL 25 WNW CLL 35 ESE ACT 10 E DUA MLC 25 SE MKO FSM 45 WNW HOT 30 ENE TXK 35 E LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 NE HOU 30 W HOU 40 SSW CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELP 45 NNW ELP 15 NNE TCS 35 N ONM 20 ESE SAF 40 ESE LVS 25 N CVS 60 N HOB 10 NW HOB 15 S CNM 35 ENE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND CNTRL NM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SRN NM. STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND SFC HEATING ARE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE MTNS OF CNTRL AND SRN NM. AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ...EAST TX/SE OK/SW AR.. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN NM AND WEST TX WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THIS EVENING...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX. MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN AR MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..BROYLES.. 02/07/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 05:18:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 00:18:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502120521.j1C5LnFF025914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120519 SWODY1 SPC AC 120517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW YUM 55 WSW EED 35 SE LAS 55 SSE SGU FMN 4SL 45 NNE 4CR 45 WSW CVS CVS DHT HLC BIE P35 IRK ALN BNA HSV CBM 35 SSE BPT ...CONT... 25 ESE CRP 35 SSW ALI 35 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH NOW MOVING ONSHORE SRN CA AND BAJA. EXPECT THIS PERTURBATION TO MOVE ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION AND SRN ROCKIES THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...SUBSEQUENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER SRN PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER MO/TN RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT SFC CYCLOGENESIS EARLY IN PERIOD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK/KS/MO. AS SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS KS...PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NRN/WRN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. BOUNDARY LAYER SLYS IN MODIFIED CONTINENTAL/POLAR AIR MASS RETURNING FROM GULF WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD THROUGHOUT AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK. ...SRN/ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F -- PRESENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS NWRN GULF -- SHOULD WARM TO MID 50S/LOW 60S RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS CONTINUES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MUCAPES THROUGH PERIOD...WITH MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATING 500-700 J/KG ELEVATED BUOYANCY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/ERN TX BY END OF PERIOD. EXPECT CAPPING TO LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER TSTMS ROOTED ABOVE SFC MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK IN LOOSE BAND FROM S TX NEWD TOWARD WRN TN. 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE PARCEL SRH 150-300 J/KG INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS TO ROTATE...ENHANCING HAIL PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY NEAREST TO GULF MOISTURE SOURCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN INCOMPLETENESS OF RETURN FLOW AND LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. RELATIVE MIN IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN SOME CORRIDOR FROM W-CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK -- SURROUNDED BUT NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY HIGHER ELEVATION HEATING FARTHER W...WARM-FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FARTHER NE...AND OPTIMAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN FARTHER E AND S. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT STRENGTH OF MESOSCALE FORCING TO OUTLINE A THUNDER-FREE HOLE WITHIN BROADER GEN TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO TN VALLEY... ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGHOUT PERIOD...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD PERMIT OCCASIONAL TSTMS WITHIN WARM FRONTAL PRECIP BAND. PARCELS MAY BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC AMIDST ELEVATED MUCAPES 50-200 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN OVER SRN/ERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN MO AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS NRN OK DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AFTER DARK...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN BOTH PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE AS FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS MO/AR AND WRN/MID TN. LACK OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE POTENTIAL MINIMAL. ..EDWARDS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 12:41:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 07:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502121244.j1CCitj8027268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121242 SWODY1 SPC AC 121241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CRP 35 SSW ALI 35 S LRD ...CONT... 20 SW YUM 55 WSW EED 35 SE LAS 35 N PGA 35 SSE ALS 60 WSW TCC 35 NNE CNM 40 WSW ABI 30 WSW SPS 40 NE AMA 35 ENE LBL EMP 35 SSE SZL 20 WSW POF 30 WNW MEM 35 S GLH 40 SSE LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHIFT ENEWD. THOUGH BAND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE AS POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP UNDER -18C TO -20C MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWLY H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE OZARK REGION WITH LLJ AXIS EXTENDING FROM ERN TX INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN STABLE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN/SERN TX...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY STRONG/ORGANIZED AS STORMS REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AVAILABLE MUCAPE REMAINS AOB 500 J/KG. ..EVANS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 16:23:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 11:23:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502121626.j1CGQPPq025017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121623 SWODY1 SPC AC 121622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 NNW PHX 35 S GCN 45 ENE GCN 45 N GUP 40 ENE GNT 35 SSE ROW 60 NW BGS 35 ENE LBB 55 WNW CSM 45 SSW P28 25 NNW BVO 15 SE JLN 35 ENE HRO 25 NE LIT 30 ESE ELD 30 SSW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO TODAY...AND THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER SPEED MAX /NOW S OF ELP/ EJECTS NEWD OVER W TX AND OK. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /BASED NEAR 700 MB/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SPEED MAX ACROSS SW/CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO OK TODAY...WHERE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 F IN A NARROW RIBBON ACROSS THE WRN GULF...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE TX COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE MOISTURE AXIS BY LATE TONIGHT AS FAR N AS ERN OK/AR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK/AR/NW LA AS THE LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND PERHAPS WRN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/THERMAL TROUGH. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME DEEP CONVECTION/A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BEFORE THE THREAT ENDS BY LATE EVENING. ..THOMPSON.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 12 19:48:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 14:48:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502121951.j1CJpc1L027788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121949 SWODY1 SPC AC 121947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 N GBN 30 S PRC 15 W INW 35 S GUP 15 NE TCS 30 SSE ROW 60 NW BGS 35 ENE LBB 55 WNW CSM 45 SSW P28 25 NNW BVO 15 SE JLN 35 ENE HRO 25 NE LIT 30 ESE ELD 30 SSW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NOW DEVELOPING IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER SERN CO WILL ALSO MOVE / DEVELOP EWD...REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KS / OK BY 13/12Z. ...AZ / NM... COOLEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ / NM THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THIS REGION... BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EVIDENT ATTM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK HEATING MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ANY THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH / COLD POCKET SHIFTS EWD AND DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES. ...TX / OK AND VICINITY... MOISTURE RETURN FROM A PARTIALLY-MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO IS EVIDENT ATTM ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF TX...WHERE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS ARE INDICATED. AS DEVELOPING LOW OVER SERN CO SHIFTS ESEWD...CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM NEAR SRN FRINGES OF WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION SHIELD...INDICATIVE OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASINGLY-COOL MID-LEVELS...EXPECT MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED / MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX / OK AND PERHAPS SWRN MO / WRN PORTIONS OF AR AND LA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 02/12/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 00:51:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 19:51:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502130054.j1D0scSM023531@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130052 SWODY1 SPC AC 130050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 10 WNW SAD 10 WNW PHX 30 S FLG 30 NE INW 25 W SAF 30 SSE SAF 30 NW ROW 45 ESE GDP 35 SSW INK 45 S MAF 20 NW SJT 20 NE BWD 30 SW ADM 25 SE OKC 25 W PNC 50 E ICT 50 S SZL 30 N UNO 60 WSW MEM 40 N HEZ 30 SSE LCH ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 30 S LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO EMERGE ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY OVERNIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS ADVECTING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS INTO CNTRL TX AT 00Z. GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...OWING TO ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. PRIND THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITHIN THE BROAD WARM CONVEYOR FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK AND SRN KS. THE TSTM THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND PERHAPS THE LOWER MS VLY BY 12Z. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE HAIL. MORE SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL NOT ARRIVE/EVOLVE UNTIL BEYOND THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. ...SRN ROCKIES... COLD POCKET ALOFT AND AFTERNOON HEATING CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. BUT...ISOLD LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NM AHEAD OF A VORTICITY MAX. ..RACY.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 05:34:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 00:34:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502130538.j1D5cCko027457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130536 SWODY1 SPC AC 130535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX VCT 25 WSW CLL 30 SW TXK 10 S TBN 25 NNW MDH 30 E PAH 35 NNW TCL 30 WSW SEM 15 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 40 N JCT MWL 30 N MLC 20 E JLN 40 NNE SZL 20 N UIN 15 N BMI 15 SE LAF 10 NE BWG 35 ENE HSV 30 S AUO 25 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE CRP 60 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CTB 20 ENE GTF 15 NE BTM 30 E S80 30 ENE ALW 25 WSW YKM 30 NW HQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST NWD INTO THE LOWER OH/MS VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS... A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VLY/MIDWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LEAD IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM OK TO IL BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGS SEWD ACROSS TX TOWARD THE WRN/CNTRL GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER SWRN KS WILL MOVE INTO WRN MO BY 18Z SUNDAY AND THEN TURN NEWD TOWARD CHICAGO BY 06Z MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH S OF THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...TO THE OZARKS AND E TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE MS VLY AND WRN GULF BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. ...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH... WARM CONVEYOR SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE OH/TN VLYS EARLY SUNDAY WITH A DRY SLOT...NOW OBSERVED OVER OK...MOVING EWD INTO THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S AS FAR N AS SRN MO. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN AS COLD POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BUT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PROBABLY TOO UNSTABLE OWING TO SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME...WITH NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROBABLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE WITH SBCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LEAD WAVE SKIRTS THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT TSTMS WILL INITIATE FROM SCNTRL MO INTO AR BY 21Z. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO MATURE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35+ KTS THROUGH EVENING. THIS COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR... MAINLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST...NAMELY ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN MO INTO NRN/CNTRL AR DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH AND TN VLYS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER SYSTEM BECOME REMOVED FROM THE THETA-E AXIS. ...CNTRL/WRN GULF COASTAL AREA... A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN TX AND SRN LA. AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT OF HIGH QUALITY...SO THERMAL BUOYANCY IS APT TO REMAIN WEAK...AOB 1000 J/KG AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PRESENCE OF DEEP UVV...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LLJ BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NWD EARLY IN THE DAY...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA SUNDAY. INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER STRONG EAST OF THE MS RVR WHERE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THUS...TSTMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN. ..RACY.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 12:27:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 07:27:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502131231.j1DCV3xR004745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131228 SWODY1 SPC AC 131227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 55 SE AUS 40 E TPL 45 N HOT 30 NNE UNO 40 WNW CGI 30 S PAH 40 WSW CBM 30 WSW SEM 15 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW DRT 40 N JCT 30 NNW PRX 25 WSW FYV 35 W JEF 50 SSE P35 15 SSW OTM 15 N BMI 20 ENE HUF 10 NE BWG 35 ENE HSV 30 S AUO 25 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE CRP 60 WNW MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF TWO OR MORE DISTINCT VORT MAXIMA. LEADING SYSTEM NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WHILE SECONDARY SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER TX. SURFACE LOW OVER KS ATTM WILL LIFT NNEWD INTO NRN IL BY THIS EVENING /ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL MO/AR/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A NARROW AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP STEADILY NNEWD ACROSS ERN TX/LA INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S INTO NRN AR/SRN MO/FAR WRN TN AND THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...AR/SERN MO/WRN TN... H5 TEMPS FROM -16C TO -18C AND MODEST HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LATEST RUC SUGGEST SBCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AT 21Z...THOUGH WARM LAYER NEAR H85 MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER UVV ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. EXTREME SHEAR WITH SRH AOA 250 M2/S2 IN THE LOWER KM/S SUGGESTS SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE ORGANIZED AND SHOULD CARRY WITH IT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA REGION LATER TODAY. EXTENT OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKENING INSTABILITY AFTER DARK...SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY HAVE A NARROW WINDOW IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME LATER TODAY. ...ERN TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM DIGS ESEWD INTO BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER OVER THE WESTERN GULF BASIN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT PERSISTENT MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AS COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION /H5 TEMPS FROM -16C TO -18C/...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. THUS...INITIAL STORMS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. IN ADDITION...PLUME OF CONVECTION NOW OVER SERN TX/SWRN TX WILL LIKELY SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND THUS INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODIFIED 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN TX BY 21Z. STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...OR INCREASE WITHIN TRAILING PORTION OF BAND OF CONVECTION NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA AS SURFACE-BASED CIN DIMINISHES. THOUGH SSWLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL LIMIT SHEAR...LENGTH OF SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES SHOULD STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AIDS CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ..EVANS.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 16:34:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 11:34:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502131637.j1DGbcq0002523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131632 SWODY1 SPC AC 131630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 55 N VCT 40 NNW CLL 50 ESE FSM 10 N UNO 20 N POF 40 ESE POF 10 SSW DYR 30 NNE GLH 35 ENE MLU 20 SSE MLU 10 SSW ESF 30 NNE LFT 40 N MSY 30 WNW GPT 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 40 NNW ALI SAT 50 NW AUS 35 SSE DAL 15 NNW PGO 30 NW HRO 30 WNW TBN 20 NE COU 25 NE IRK 25 NNW BRL 25 WNW MMO 35 NW MIE 50 SE IND 35 W CHA 20 S AUO 25 NE AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E TX AND AR...AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE LA COAST.... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE WAVES IS MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. ONE SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOW EJECTING ENEWD FROM S CENTRAL TX...AND ANOTHER IS DIGGING ESEWD OVER W TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IN NE KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO LAKE MI BY EARLY MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE A TRAILING REMNANT LEE TROF/DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM CENTRAL TX AND ERN OK THIS MORNING TO WRN AR AND E TX TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM S CENTRAL TX...WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SE TX WILL PERSIST TODAY AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE INITIAL RAIN BAND ACROSS THE NW GULF AND SW LA. MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SRN AND WRN FLANK OF THE ONGOING SE TX STORMS...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM 60-64 F AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT WILL BE MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7-8 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18 C. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FROM E TX NEWD INTO AR...ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES EARLY TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS E/SE OF THE GULF/LA RAIN BAND IS STILL MODIFYING BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS WITH TEMPERATURES 2-5 F COOLER THAN SST/S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. THE AIR MASS CROSSING THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY UNTIL TONIGHT NEAR COAST...WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..THOMPSON.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 13 19:54:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 14:54:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502131957.j1DJvnTB001044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131955 SWODY1 SPC AC 131953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 50 SE AUS 20 WNW CLL 50 ESE FSM 45 SSE HRO 45 SW ARG 60 W MEM 15 SW GLH 20 SSE MLU 10 SSW ESF 30 NNE LFT 40 N MSY 30 WNW GPT 40 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 15 W NIR 40 E SAT 20 SSE TPL 45 WNW TYR 20 WNW PGO 45 ESE SGF 30 S SPI BMG 30 W BHM 40 N CEW 10 ESE AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX / AR / LA... ...SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD WITH TIME...WHILE SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION / LOWER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX / ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... BAND OF SHOWERS / A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS LA INTO SERN TX ATTM. ALONG SWRN FRINGES OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND -- ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SERN TX / EXTREME SWRN LA...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AROUND 25 KT SFC-1 KM SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LOW-END SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING SHOULD PERSIST WEST OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION...INVOF WEAK DRYLINE / TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SSWWD TOWARD ERN FRINGES OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ARE OVERSPREADING THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER TO YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED BASED ON APPEARANCE OF CU FIELD IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING TROUGH / DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH MOST LIKELY ZONE OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CLL NNEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD HOT. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. THOUGH THIS CONVECTION WOULD SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 02/13/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 00:52:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 19:52:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502140055.j1E0tQid007051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140053 SWODY1 SPC AC 140051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CLL 10 E GGG 10 SSW TXK ELD 50 NW ESF 30 SSW POE 15 NNW BPT 35 NNW HOU 35 ESE CLL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 N PSX 25 E CLL 40 SSE TYR 35 SW TXK 55 N HOT 35 E HRO 20 SSE UNO 30 N DYR 25 SW GLH 25 E MLU 15 W HEZ 40 SE LUL 45 NW PNS 35 SE CEW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR... ...WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS ERN TX PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MINUS 19C H5 TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ATOP A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE LOCATED FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO E TX/WRN LA. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG A BOUNDARY E OF KCLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E...THERE MAY BE OTHER ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOP ACROSS E TX OR WRN LA ALONG THE BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. STORMS WILL NOT HAVE TO MOVE TOO FAR E BEFORE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME. OTHERWISE...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LA TOWARD THE LOWER MS VLY. STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THE TSTM CLUSTER...ROUGHLY WEST OF KLCH TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF KGLS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS NOT DESTABILIZED GIVEN RAIN AND CLOUDS OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...RETURN FLOW INTO S LA HAS BEEN PARTIALLY MODIFIED AT BEST WITH DEW POINTS 58-63F. THUS...PRIND THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A ISOLD WIND GUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ACROSS SWRN/SCNTRL LA THIS EVENING. ...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE SEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND WILL LIKELY SWEEP INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. 00Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION VCNTY H7 BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE KLZK SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME INHIBITION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER. THUS...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ...PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ALONG/N OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET AXIS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THE PAC NW TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. THE LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL SHOWERS DIMINISH. ..RACY.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 05:33:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 00:33:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502140536.j1E5ac8Q003221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140534 SWODY1 SPC AC 140532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM MCB 40 WNW MEI 40 NNE TCL 20 NW GAD 20 W RMG 15 NNW AHN 35 SSE AND 20 WSW FLO 30 ESE FAY 35 N EWN 35 SE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SERN STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS. ...SERN STATES... TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH. AS PRIMARY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY NWD INTO THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY MORNING. THUS...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THEY CROSS GA AND NRN FL WHERE AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE MORE STABLE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SLY FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL ADVECT MID 50S DEW POINTS NWD ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. NAM SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME PROFILES AND RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY THAN WILL BE REALIZED. NAMKF SEEMS MORE REPRESENTATIVE AND MAINTAINS SBCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. THUS...DESPITE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...MINIMAL INSTABILITY/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE SEVERE RISKS. STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE NC/SC. ..RACY.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 12:36:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 07:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502141239.j1ECdwkj024974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141238 SWODY1 SPC AC 141236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 45 NNW MOB 15 W BHM 20 W RMG 15 NNE AHN 15 E AGS 45 NNW CHS 30 S FAY 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... STRONG SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN LARGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY. THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. SHEAR PROFILES AND STRONG ASCENT WILL AID IN MAINTAINING SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADING AL/GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL. ..EVANS.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 16:25:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 11:25:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502141628.j1EGSTCp025776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141625 SWODY1 SPC AC 141623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE ...CONT... PFN 20 SE DHN 10 WSW CSG 30 ENE ATL 35 ESE AHN 20 WNW CAE 30 NNW FLO 25 SSE RDU 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GA/N FL TODAY...AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT. ...CA AREA... A SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 37 N AND 131 W HAS SLOWED APPRECIABLY IN ITS EWD MOVEMENT THE PAST 12 HOURS AS PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ERN PACIFIC. WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...AS WILL THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ...MT AREA... FINALLY...A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO JUSTIFY A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA. ..THOMPSON.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 14 19:48:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:48:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502141951.j1EJpQAF026693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141949 SWODY1 SPC AC 141947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY 20 E VLD 65 ESE MCN 45 ESE AHN 20 WNW CAE 30 NNW FLO 25 SSE RDU 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE SE ATLANTIC STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE MID/SE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AS IT DE-AMPLIFIES. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAND AREAS... THOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN FL TO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE STORM THREAT. ...MT/NRN ID... EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ID INTO WRN MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD OVER THIS REGION. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED AS OF 1930Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS UVVS WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD SEWD WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT PER COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -38 C AT 500 MB/. LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO ADD A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 02/14/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 00:56:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 19:56:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502150059.j1F0xL5q018967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150056 SWODY1 SPC AC 150055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE SERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS NOW PASSING INTO NEW ENGLAND...WELL N OF ANY THERMAL BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE TSTMS. AREA OF NRN FL WHERE MEAGER INSTABILITY DOES EXIST HAS AN ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE AND NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEAK FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. ..RACY.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 05:39:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 00:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502150542.j1F5ghda026948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150541 SWODY1 SPC AC 150539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST MON FEB 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAY 15 WSW PKB CRW 20 WSW TRI 45 SSW TYS HSV 10 ENE UOX 55 NE LIT 15 SSE TBN 40 WNW STL 15 SW SPI DNV 35 N IND 10 ESE DAY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDWEST/OH-TN VLYS... POTENT UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE/ DEEPEN OVER THE NRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY THEN MOVE TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND THE OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE OF HIGH QUALITY...SBCAPES WILL BE 200-400 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN MO TO SRN IL IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT MINIMAL THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER OH VLY NEWD INTO THE TN AND MID-OH VLYS AS SWLY LLJ RESPONDS TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS. THESE BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND...GIVEN MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. ..RACY.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 12:31:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 07:31:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502151234.j1FCYBkR002105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151232 SWODY1 SPC AC 151230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAY 15 WSW PKB CRW 20 WSW TRI 45 SSW TYS 35 NE CBM 10 WNW GWO 35 NE PBF 35 ENE UNO 30 WSW STL 30 SSW SPI DNV 35 N IND 10 ESE DAY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID SOUTH INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE STEADILY ESEWD AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCELERATED SEWD AND INTO THE OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AND SUPPORT MARGINAL...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CAPPED...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING GENERALLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...EXPECT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..EVANS.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 17:00:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 12:00:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502151703.j1FH3WGH007520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151629 SWODY1 SPC AC 151627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE DAY 25 NNE UNI CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS 35 NE CBM 15 NNW GWO 35 NE PBF 35 ENE UNO 30 WSW STL 30 SSW SPI DNV 25 NW MIE 35 NE DAY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE OF THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND LARGELY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES. A POSITIVE TILT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE NOW IN SE KS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ...MID/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... THE SURFACE LOW IN SE KS AS OF 15Z WILL MOVE ENEWD TO ROUGHLY THE STL AREA BY 00Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AS FAR NE AS SRN IL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F ARE PRESENT FROM E TX INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS ERN MO AND CENTRAL/SRN IL AND INDIANA. THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE /MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-750 J/KG/...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT. STILL...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. ..THOMPSON.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 15 19:52:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:52:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502151955.j1FJtMdX029777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151952 SWODY1 SPC AC 151950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N MTC 30 W CAK CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS CBM GWO 45 NE LIT 35 NW UNO UIN MLI 15 WNW CGX 20 N FNT 15 N MTC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. NRN STREAM JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE SRN STREAM JET EXTENDS FROM TX INTO GA. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT IN SWRN MO. ...OH/TN VALLEYS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MO IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING...AND THEN SWING NEWD THROUGH OHIO OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO AND WRN TN. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED...LOWER TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS OVER SERN AR/NRN MS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM SHOULD YIELD MUCAPES FROM 300 TO 800 J/KG BY EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE LOW/FRONT AND LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT... BETWEEN THE NRN/SRN STREAM JET MAXES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE PARCELS WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK...WITH THE STORM UPDRAFTS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 850 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT SHIFTS FURTHER NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER. ALTHOUGH A COLD BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NRN IL EWD INTO NWRN OH...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MUCAPES AOB 100 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM NRN IL ENEWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND INTO NWRN OH/SRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..IMY.. 02/15/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 00:35:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 19:35:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502160038.j1G0c1ci025220@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160036 SWODY1 SPC AC 160034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW JBR 45 ESE VIH 10 W SPI 25 SSE CGX 30 SW LAN MTC 25 N CLE 25 SSW CAK CRW 40 NE TRI 45 S TYS 45 S MSL 30 N GLH 50 SW JBR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH/TN VLYS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VLYS THIS EVENING. WEAK 1006 MB LOW S OF KSTL WAS TRAVERSING A COLD FRONT AND WILL MOVE FROM SERN MO TO NWRN OH OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NARROW RIBBON OF NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS BENEATH 7C/KM H5-H7 LAPSE RATES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR/N OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN MO...BUT UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING OWING TO WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY. AS THE HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD...SWLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...VIA LIFT AND ADVECTION...WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OH/TN VLYS. MUCAPES WILL LIKELY GET NO HIGHER THAN 200-400 J/KG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR BANDS OF TSTMS. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FARTHER N...H85 FRONT WILL BE TO FOCUS FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH. ..RACY.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 05:16:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:16:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502160519.j1G5Jn9n012393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160518 SWODY1 SPC AC 160516 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 25 SW SOP 20 WNW NHK 10 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE. NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON WED ACROSS THE NERN PARTS OF AMERICA. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OH VLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WED PM AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST. A SRN STREAM JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE TO THE SERN STATES BY WED NIGHT. ...MID-ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH...WILL BE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE 18Z WED THEN TO THE COAST BY 00Z. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOISTEN WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE MID 50S BY PEAK HEATING WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-800 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT... AUGMENTED BY COUPLING OF NRN/SRN STREAM JET STRUCTURES... WILL LIKELY AID IN BANDS OF CONVECTION FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT 18-21Z FROM CNTRL VA TO CNTRL NC. VEERING OF THE WARM SECTOR LL FLOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DOWNSLOPE...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT DETRIMENTAL IN MAINTAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS 18-00Z FROM ERN SHORES OF MD SWD INTO ERN NC. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. ..RACY.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 12:44:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 07:44:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502161247.j1GClS51011570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161245 SWODY1 SPC AC 161243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 25 SW SOP 20 WNW NHK 10 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC... PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES YIELD LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE FRONT...STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAS MAINTAINED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN PA INTO ERN TN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESS EWD. ONCE AFTERNOON HEATING AND GRADUAL MOISTENING INCREASES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE LATER TODAY AS FRONT INTERACTS THIS INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...STRONG SHEAR AND FORECAST INSTABILITY FIELDS WARRANT AT LEAST MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN PLACE. PRIMARY QUESTION REMAINS CENTERED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. ETAKF AND ETA CONTINUE TO FORECAST 70-75F SFC TEMPS ALONG WITH 56-58F DEW POINTS BY 19Z INTO NERN NC/ERN VA...WHILE RUC MAINTAINS MID 60S OVER LOWER 50S. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN RESULTANT INSTABILITY. AM INCLINED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE RUC ATTM. THOUGH...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...SLGT RISK COULD BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IF IT APPEARS ETA AND ETAKF BOUNDARY-LAYER FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK. ..EVANS.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 16:12:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 11:12:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502161615.j1GGFGtV032509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161610 SWODY1 SPC AC 161610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1010 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 50 NE MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TESTING DISSEMINATION. THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. TESTING. ..AFWA.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 16:33:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 11:33:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502161636.j1GGaUJR017579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161631 SWODY1 SPC AC 161629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRE 30 NNE FLO 25 NNW SOP 30 E DAN 40 NE CHO BWI 10 E ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A REX BLOCK OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...A SRN AND NRN STREAM CONFLUENCE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...AND A NRN STREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM /NOW LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/ WILL MOVE OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN CENTRAL NY WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD MAINE WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. ...ERN NY/PA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA HAVE SHOWN ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM NE PA TO CENTRAL NY. SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO ERN PA/NY. ...VA/CAROLINAS... TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. STILL...POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TEND TO LIMIT BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND SHALLOW ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE 30-40 KT WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ..THOMPSON.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 16 19:59:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 14:59:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502162002.j1GK2kRl001538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161959 SWODY1 SPC AC 161957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 40 SW FLO CAE 45 SSE AND 10 NNE ATL 20 E RMG GSO 40 E CHO ILG 10 ESE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TIDEWATER AREA INTO ERN NC... AS OF 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VWP DATA INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NRN GA. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO WARM TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS OWING TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE TIDEWATER AREA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING 8 C/KM. DESPITE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT IN NRN GA /ENE OF RMG/ WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING NEWD ALONG FRONT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST APPEARS TO BE WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE TIDEWATER AREA INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 02/16/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 00:55:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:55:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502170059.j1H0xCEb000744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170057 SWODY1 SPC AC 170055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HSE 25 W FLO 30 SSE SPA 10 SE CLT 45 E RWI 25 NE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH MODESTLY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD...AS BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES AROUND ERN U.S. TROUGH. ...PARTS OF NC / SC... MINIMAL INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ALONG FRONT...WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN CESSATION OF LIGHTNING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 05:56:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 00:56:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502170559.j1H5xijL027521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170557 SWODY1 SPC AC 170555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A LARGE TROUGH PERSISTING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CANADA / THE U.S. WHILE AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OFF THE CA COAST. WITH COOL / STABLE AIRMASS HAVING SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL EXIST OVER THE SWRN CONUS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ...CA... VARIOUS MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACCORDING TO NAM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...FAIRLY COLD /-20 TO -22 C/ TEMPS AT MID LEVELS SPREADING INLAND COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMITED HEATING WOULD SUGGEST SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF CA...WITH NO WELL-DEFINED DOWNSTREAM FEATURE ALOFT EVIDENT ATTM WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW...SUFFICIENT UVV SHOULD EXIST TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION APPEARS ATTM TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT...SMALL HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY. ..GOSS.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 12:41:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 07:41:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502171245.j1HCj9hq024927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171243 SWODY1 SPC AC 171241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA INTO SRN NV/NWRN AZ... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NNEWD AND ROTATE ACROSS CA DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE CA COAST. BY LATER TODAY...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL CA AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ROTATE AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW AND APPROACH SRN CA. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL AND WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS. RESULTANT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL THUS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM SRN/CENTRAL CA INTO PARTS OF THE CO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SRN CA COAST INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE ETA AND ETAKF MAINTAIN SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 50F. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS NOW APPROACHING SWRN CA LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THIS REGION TODAY. ..EVANS.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 16:30:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 11:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502171633.j1HGXpEg027199@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171630 SWODY1 SPC AC 171628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 60 SE RBL 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 25 SSW GCN 35 WNW PRC 40 NNW BLH CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BROAD MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN W OF THE CA COAST AS PART OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING REX BLOCK OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE NEWD OVER SRN CA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY...OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS A FEW STRIKES IN A CLUSTER NEAR 30 N AND 121 W WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND OTHER ISOLATED STRIKES FARTHER OFFSHORE NEAR THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL INVOF 30 N AND 127 W. THE THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INLAND. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY COLD AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. ..THOMPSON.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 17 19:51:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 14:51:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502171954.j1HJshGJ028057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171951 SWODY1 SPC AC 171951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0151 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 35 N RBL RNO 30 SSW TPH SGU 30 W GCN PRC GBN 65 SSW GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA INTO SRN NV AND WRN AZ... THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...MODEL DATA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SOUNDINGS INDICATE BORDERLINE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER INCREASING WIND FLOW FROM THE SW WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND RESTRICT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATED. ..AFWA.. 02/17/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 00:47:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 19:47:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502180051.j1I0p33K025325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180049 SWODY1 SPC AC 180047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 65 SSW SVE 20 NNW BIH 30 SSE P38 50 ESE SGU 30 SSW GCN 45 SW PRC 60 ESE BLH 25 ESE IPL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA INTO SRN NV/WRN AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA/NRN BAJA REGION AT THIS TIME...AS IT ROTATES AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SRN CA OVERNIGHT. ..PETERS.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 05:56:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 00:56:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502180559.j1I5xjCj028527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180557 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST THU FEB 17 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 50 ESE RBL 55 N BIH 30 NE P38 30 NNW DRO 10 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 35 SE GDP 50 W MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TODAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST DE-AMPLIFIES...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NRN BC AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BASE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE BC TROUGH MOVING SWD WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. ...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY... GRADUAL COOLING AT MID LEVELS AS THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW MOVES EWD...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS CA FROM THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA TODAY. SOME SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SHOULD AID IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG. 25-30 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ..PETERS.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 12:33:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 07:33:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502181236.j1ICaIcx004883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181234 SWODY1 SPC AC 181232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL TPH MLF 4BL LVS CNM 30 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDING ACROSS BAJA CA INTO TX/NM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER FEATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. STRONG ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS ARE AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS APPEAR POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THIS REGION...PROVIDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COMBINATION OF COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS TODAY OVER CENTRAL CA. ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 16:02:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 11:02:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502181605.j1IG5vC0030829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181602 SWODY1 SPC AC 181601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL TPH MLF 4BL LVS 20 NW INK 30 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF CA COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE AND GRADUALLY FILL AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS SWD THRU BRITISH COLUMBIA. VORT LOBE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORT LOBE...ONSHORE FLOW OF A VERY MOIST...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...COUPLED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING CENTRAL COAST INLAND TO CENTRAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL AID IN RAISING MUCAPES TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CA...PARTICULARLY VICINITY COAST AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER THREAT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE A RISK AREA. ..HALES.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 18 19:36:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 14:36:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502181939.j1IJdrUW011030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181937 SWODY1 SPC AC 181936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL TPH MLF 4BL LVS 20 NW INK 30 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS SHIFTED INLAND... ALLOWING A 70-80 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM VBG/OXR NWD TO SFO TO RECEIVE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL NEWD ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N AND 125W/ BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. ..MEAD.. 02/18/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 00:54:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 19:54:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502190057.j1J0vEMm003407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190055 SWODY1 SPC AC 190053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S EKA 50 WNW RBL 10 NW RBL 50 SE RBL 40 WSW TVL 55 S TVL 60 WNW BIH 15 E BIH 50 WNW DRA 20 NNE DRA 35 S P38 15 NNE SGU 15 SSE BCE 30 ENE U17 35 NNE CEZ 15 W ALS 30 SE RTN 45 NW TCC 60 SSE LVS 25 NNE 4CR 20 WSW 4CR 35 E TCS 35 SSE TCS 20 E DMN 40 S DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL CA COASTAL RANGES AND VALLEYS... COMPLEX UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD OVER COASTAL CA TONIGHT. HEATING OF THE DAY AND RELATIVELY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM LA BASIN NWD TO SAN LUIS OBISPO. WHILE VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE RANGE OF 800-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. ...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY TO NM/FOUR CORNERS AREA... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WITHIN SE FLANK OF LARGE SCALE LOW AFFECTING CA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODES OF STRONG UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAILING PORTION OF ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS NWRN AZ APPEARS TO BE DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF TUS. WHILE A GENERAL LULL IN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AZ...ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS SUGGESTED ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN BAJA. AS THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLES WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND RESIDUAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SRN/ERN AZ ACROSS NWRN NM LATER TONIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE DECREASING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..CARBIN.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 05:57:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 00:57:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502190601.j1J6147p011605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ONP 20 E ONP 30 S SLE 40 ESE EUG 30 NE MFR 45 W MHS 15 ESE RBL 45 NNE FAT 55 NW DRA 50 W P38 25 WSW BCE 40 SW 4HV 40 WNW GJT 30 E GJT 45 S GUC 20 NW SAF 40 WSW ROW 25 ENE CNM 15 SSE MAF 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PBF 60 N HOT 40 N JLN 10 SSE MHK 40 WSW CNK HLC 45 S MCK 20 WNW MCK 30 NNE MCK 15 NNW HSI 15 ESE OMA 10 NNW LWD 10 W UIN 20 N SLO 25 N HOP 30 SSE CKV 40 N MSL 15 WNW MSL 45 ENE PBF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH COMPLEX CYCLONE ALONG THE CA COAST AND DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...EMANATING FROM THE WEST COAST LOW...WILL PASS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING SWD OVER WRN CANADA...WILL PASS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND START TO MERGE WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXIST ALONG/INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. ASIDE FROM A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NRN NEW ENGLAND... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC. MAIN FEATURES DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE WEST COAST TROUGHS...AS WELL AS THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE PLAINS. ...CA/AZ... ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CA/AZ LATER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORE WELL-DEFINED IMPULSE NOW MOVING OVER UT. NONETHELESS...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND/OR GREATER MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DESERT AREAS/NEAR THE CA COAST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 250-500 J/KG. WITH WEAK TO NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE FORCING...PRIMARY FACTORS DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK OROGRAPHIC AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION. MODEST SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE OR TWO HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ACTIVITY ALONG THE CA COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO WEAKER CLOUD BEARING SHEAR. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THESE AREAS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ...MO RIVER VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY LATE... A LEE-SIDE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER CO AND MOVE EAST ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MO RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AFTER DARK...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SHOULD PROMOTE ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN KS/SRN NE ESEWD TO MO/AR AREAS IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. STORM UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL BE ON THE NRN EDGE OF A PLUME OF POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 12:06:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 07:06:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502191209.j1JC9c1D008355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191207 SWODY1 SPC AC 191205 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JBR HRO JLN MHK BIE 40 N FNB P35 STL MDH 10 SSE PAH DYR JBR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ONP 20 E ONP 30 S SLE 40 ESE EUG 30 NE MFR 45 W MHS RBL 45 NE MER BIH P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE CA COAST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY...WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MUCH OF CA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS WELL AS FAR WEST TX. TWO SMALL AREAS WITHIN THIS REGION APPEAR TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY HEIGHTENED THREAT OF STRONG CONVECTION TODAY. ...SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING... PRIMARY UPPER VORT MAX IS APPROACHING THE LA BASIN AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED CELLS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS NEW CELLS GENERATE JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. ...SOUTHWEST AZ THIS AFTERNOON... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IS PRESENT IN THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING ALOFT...AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 16:21:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 11:21:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502191624.j1JGOSJt003946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191621 SWODY1 SPC AC 191619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE 25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW JBR 15 NW HRO 25 WSW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE MVN 10 SSE PAH DYR 15 WNW JBR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SURFACE AND UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS OPENING UP AND MOVING INLAND AS A WEAKENING TROUGH IN BROAD WSWLY FLOW. NEXT S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU B.C. WILL REDEVELOP UPPER LOW W OF CA SUN UNDER CONTINUING REX BLOCK REGIME. ...SRN CA... AS S/WV TROUGH MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR UPWARDS TO 25 KT COUPLED WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR STORM ROTATION UNTIL TROUGH MOVES E OF COASTAL AREAS. PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE ROTATING STORMS WILL BE BRIEF/ MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO/WATERSPOUT THREAT WEST OF MOUNTAINS. STORMS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPS. ...SRN AZ... WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER SWRN U.S. ALONG WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL DEPENDENT PRIMARILY ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. CURRENT CLEARING LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL OCCUR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 60S CENTRAL DESERT VALLEYS. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50KT ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. ..HALES.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 19:48:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 14:48:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502191951.j1JJptEY005336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191949 SWODY1 SPC AC 191947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE 25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH P38 BCE CNY GJT GUC SAF 4CR CNM MAF 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PBF 45 ESE FSM 40 SW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE MVN 10 SSE PAH 20 NNE UOX 15 ESE PBF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER LOS ANGELES/ORANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON NKX AND SOX VWPS HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL MINI SUPERCELLS WHICH HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER COURSE OF THE MORNING. EXPECT THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC AND ADJACENT COAST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY OF NWRN AZ AND SRN NV WHERE SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W. HERE TOO...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD #0171. ..MEAD.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 19 22:27:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 17:27:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502192230.j1JMURl6012312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192202 SWODY1 SPC AC 192201 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ONP 30 WSW SLE 25 ENE EUG 50 ESE EUG 50 NNW LMT 20 NE MHS 50 SW SVE 60 S TVL BIH 30 NNE P38 40 SE U24 20 NNE U28 GJT 40 E GUC 25 ENE TAD 10 SSW DHT 40 SSW LBB 20 WSW BGS 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PBF 45 ESE FSM 40 SW JLN 15 N MHK 20 SE LNK 40 N FNB 30 SE OTM 15 WSW SPI 30 SSE MVN 10 SSE PAH 20 NNE UOX 15 ESE PBF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED FOR EXTEND GENERAL TSTM INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS ...SRN CA COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER LOS ANGELES/ORANGE AND WRN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE SRN CA COAST. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THIS AREA HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON NKX AND SOX VWPS HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL MINI SUPERCELLS WHICH HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER COURSE OF THE MORNING. EXPECT THAT SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC AND ADJACENT COAST WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDES. MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY OF NWRN AZ AND SRN NV WHERE SBCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W. HERE TOO...MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD #0171. ...NM INTO WRN TX... STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF ERN NM AND POSSIBLY FAR WRN TX. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. ..MEAD.. 02/19/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 01:03:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 20:03:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502200106.j1K16IpH003180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200103 SWODY1 SPC AC 200102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LIT 25 ENE FYV 40 NW SGF 30 WSW TOP 20 NW FNB 50 ESE OMA 30 ESE OTM 15 WNW SPI 35 WNW EVV 10 ESE CKV 25 NE MEM 25 NE LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UKI 55 SE RBL 15 SSW TVL 25 WSW BIH 40 ENE NID 25 S U24 25 NNE U28 40 S 4FC 25 ENE TAD 45 WSW GAG 30 NE ABI 35 NNE JCT 45 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER CO VALLEY / SWRN AZ... BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY ATTM...THROUGH AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE / SPREAD ACROSS SWRN AZ AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ENEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING / BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS OR SO. ...SERN NM / PARTS OF FAR W TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS... LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM / FAR W TX INTO PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND TX SOUTH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS -- HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THIS REGION. THOUGH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE...STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD CORRESPOND TO A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 06:18:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 01:18:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502200621.j1K6LWNa014981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200619 SWODY1 SPC AC 200617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PRX 20 ENE FSM 30 W JEF DEC 40 SSW BMG 25 SW CKV 35 N GWO 20 SSE ELD 15 NE GGG 40 S PRX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE DRA 50 ESE U24 EGE 45 W ALS 50 NW GUP 50 NE PHX 40 NW GBN 30 NNW EED 40 ENE DRA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 50 WSW FAT PMD 45 S RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAL 35 NNW PGO 10 ENE CNU 30 WNW BIE 20 N OMA 40 SSE LNR 35 SSE MTC 20 ESE BUF 30 W AVP 20 S DCA 45 NNE RDU LGC 40 S MLU 35 NNE VCT 10 S SAT 45 ENE JCT 15 SE DAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD / MODERATELY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL E OF THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE / SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY...AS UPPER LOW EVOLVES / MOVES SSEWD ALONG THE CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER FAR WRN KS IS EXPECTED OVER NERN KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY AROUND SUNSET AND THEN CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY STATES TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...INITIALLY EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR W TX...SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME AS LOW RACES ENEWD ACROSS THE MS / OH VALLEYS. ...ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS NAM FORECASTS APPEAR TO REMAIN MUCH TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERALLY 30S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MO...AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS AR...WRN TN...AND MS. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION...AS COOL / VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTS BENEATH STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING W-E ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS -- NOW OVER TX -- WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR GIVEN TRAJECTORIES INTO THE OZARKS REGION PERSISTING FROM WITHIN SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / LIFT EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS PERSIST ATTM WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN KS / ERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...WITHIN LARGER AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE CONVECTION -- DRIVEN BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE AS MENTIONED ABOVE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS MO AND SRN IL. FURTHER S ACROSS AR INTO THE ARKLATEX...GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER FORCING FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL NE OF THE ARKLATEX AND CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR...WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY WEAK CAP AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE. WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WSWLY AT AROUND 60 KT...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS WILL MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. FURTHER N...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING / MOISTENING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION. UNDER THE MOST FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER...CLEARING / BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG REAR SIDE OF LOW CLOUD FIELD MAY ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WOULD SUGGEST SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT ANY CLEARING / HEATING WOULD OCCUR LATE...AND JUST AHEAD OF LOW / FRONT...WITH INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST NWD ACROSS MO INTO THE SRN HALF OF IL...BUT THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDINESS / BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT. ..GOSS.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 20 12:25:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 07:25:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502201228.j1KCSlKI009926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201226 SWODY1 SPC AC 201224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0624 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGO FYV COU DEC BMG HOP UOX ELD TXK PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI MER EDW 45 S RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P38 PUC EGE 45 W ALS GUP INW PRC LAS P38. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FTW MLC CNU BIE FOD LNR MBS BUF AVP DCA 45 NNE RDU LGC ESF 35 NNE VCT SAT 45 ENE JCT FTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... BAND OF MODERATELY FAST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE...DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM KS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL POCKETS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM TX/OK INTO NY/PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NAM/RUC/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT NOW LIES ACROSS AR/MS WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF 50S DEWPOINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE RUC/NAM REGARDING THE EXTENT OF SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BL MIXING AND EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THE RUC SEEMS TO BE MORE REALISTIC...MAINTAINING A CAPPING INVERSION AND SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL AFTER 21Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WEST EDGE OF STRATUS DECK WILL LIE ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. POINTS EAST OF THIS LINE WILL SEE ONLY LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING...INSUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL STRONGER UPPER FORCING ARRIVES AFTER DARK. ONCE UVVS INCREASE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO EASTERN AR. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AID IN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO AR/TX APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE. IF THE NAM BL FORECAST SCENARIO IS CORRECT...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS /PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN IL. ..HART.. 02/20/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 00:53:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 19:53:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502210056.j1L0uH0V031506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210054 SWODY1 SPC AC 210052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW FYV 30 S TBN 35 SSE SPI 15 SSE MTO 45 NNW EVV 25 W HOP 30 ESE MEM 20 W ELD 40 SSE PGO 40 NW FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 25 NE MER 15 E EDW 15 ESE CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW U28 25 WNW CAG 20 SSW 4FC 25 SW PUB 25 NE LVS 10 ESE 4CR 30 NE SOW 20 ESE PGA 20 NW U28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GLS 20 SW PRX 25 NW MLC 15 ENE DHT 45 WNW EHA 55 W GCK 25 ENE CNU 35 S SZL 40 WNW SPI 35 SSE CGX DTW 20 SE ERI 20 NW HGR 20 N GSO 35 N LGC 40 E MEI 35 S MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... ...PORTIONS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IND/OH. SECONDARY...MORE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDED SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WRN IL AND THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL AR BEFORE BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED OVER CNTRL MS/AL. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT/ FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS NRN OK. FINALLY...WEAK DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM E OF VIH SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N-CNTRL TX E OF THE METROPLEX. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY TRIED TO INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OR SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SRN MO. INSPECTION OF 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF SRN MO/AR INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN CA COAST... LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER/MID-LEVEL LOW /NEAR 33.5N AND 126.5W/ BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE MORE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SMALL TSTM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER THE OK PNHDL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUITE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR /PER 00Z AMA SOUNDING/. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NWRN OK...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LATER TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 01:02:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 20:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502210105.j1L15QLb004538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210103 SWODY1 SPC AC 210101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW FYV 30 S TBN 35 SSE SPI 15 SSE MTO 45 NNW EVV 25 W HOP 30 ESE MEM 20 W ELD 40 SSE PGO 40 NW FYV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW UKI 25 NE MER 15 E EDW 15 ESE CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW U28 25 WNW CAG 20 SSW 4FC 25 SW PUB 25 NE LVS 10 ESE 4CR 30 NE SOW 20 ESE PGA 20 NW U28. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GLS 20 SW PRX 25 NW MLC 15 ENE DHT 45 WNW EHA 55 W GCK 25 ENE CNU 35 S SZL 40 WNW SPI 35 SSE CGX DTW 20 SE ERI 20 NW HGR 20 N GSO 35 N LGC 40 E MEI 35 S MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY SRN CA ...PORTIONS OF LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER NRN IL AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IND/OH. SECONDARY...MORE WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDED SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS WRN IL AND THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL AR BEFORE BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED OVER CNTRL MS/AL. MEANWHILE...PRIMARY TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD INTO CNTRL KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH /SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT/ FROM W-CNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS NRN OK. FINALLY...WEAK DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM E OF VIH SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO N-CNTRL TX E OF THE METROPLEX. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY TRIED TO INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE OR SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER SRN MO. INSPECTION OF 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS HAVE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD LATER TONIGHT...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM PORTIONS OF SRN MO/AR INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN CA COAST... LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER/MID-LEVEL LOW /NEAR 33.5N AND 126.5W/ BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE MORE EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG COAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS OWING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SMALL TSTM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER THE OK PNHDL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUITE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR /PER 00Z AMA SOUNDING/. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NWRN OK...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LATER TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 06:07:36 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 01:07:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502210610.j1L6AW8r015566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210608 SWODY1 SPC AC 210605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UKI 30 SSW RBL 40 ESE RBL 55 WNW BIH 35 NNW NID 65 SSW LAS 30 E IGM 30 WNW PHX 60 SSW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE JAX 45 WNW CTY ...CONT... 10 WNW BVE LCH 20 NNE PSX 25 WNW VCT 30 SE SAT 35 WSW AUS 65 SW TYR 35 ESE PRX 35 ENE FSM 35 SW JLN 30 NNW SGF 45 ESE VIH 15 WNW EVV 20 E SDF 30 NNE HTS 50 WSW EKN 10 NW SHD 25 SSW DCA 15 ENE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONG VORT MAX INITIALLY OVER OK / SRN KS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH CONFLUENT FLOW. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WSWWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO OK. WHILE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX...THE REST OF THE ROUGHLY W-E FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD WITH TIME. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO NRN / CENTRAL TX. ...UPPER TX COAST / E TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEYS... COLD FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION -- FROM ROUGHLY THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY -- AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF AR EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...WITH FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE LITTLE SWD PROGRESS WITH TIME...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INVOF FRONTAL ZONE / AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING / DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS PART OF THE REGION. FARTHER S -- FROM E TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... SLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MID 60S DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ANTICIPATED S OF SURFACE FRONT AND FORECAST LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD / ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF MOISTURE / INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER FLOW / DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS REGION. OVERALL COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ...SRN CA... LARGE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST THIS PERIOD...WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SRN CA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ATTM BEING POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WITHIN WHAT COULD BE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...WITH UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS ONCE EVOLUTION OF AIRMASS BECOMES MORE CLEAR. FURTHER N...HAVE ADDED A LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY...AS IT APPEARS THAT DRY SLOT MAY OVERSPREAD THIS REGION ALLOWING SOME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP. ..GOSS.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 12:34:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 07:34:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502211237.j1LCbR8R015249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211235 SWODY1 SPC AC 211234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DYR HOP LOZ HSS ATL SEM JAN GLH 45 WSW MEM 30 NNW DYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BVE LCH 45 SSE CLL 25 SE DRT 25 SSW P07 65 SW SJT ACT 40 S PRX 35 W HOT UNO MDH EVV SDF CRW CHO 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... 25 ESE JAX 45 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 35 NNW RBL 35 SW SVE RNO TPH SGU 10 SSE PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY... ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST KS. STRONG UVVS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE AIDED IN THE ORGANIZATION OF A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF TN AND NORTHERN MS/AL. A RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING ALSO SUGGEST THE RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. STRONG WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND RATHER STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHERN CA... NEXT POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM HAS BEGUN AFFECTING CA. STRONG WIND FIELDS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20 TO -24C AT 500MB/ AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOES...OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN CA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..HART.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 16:25:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 11:25:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502211628.j1LGSUka029583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211625 SWODY1 SPC AC 211624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE HSV 25 WSW CSV 45 SE LOZ 10 SE TRI 15 ENE AND 15 W MGM 25 E MEI 25 SE GWO 35 SW MSL 45 NNE HSV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OXR 25 SW PMD RAL 40 SW TRM 10 ENE CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 45 NW CTY ...CONT... 10 WNW BVE LCH 40 ESE CLL 25 SE DRT 60 NNW DRT 25 SW SJT 30 NNW FTW 45 NE PRX 15 NNW HOT 55 ENE LIT 55 E MKL 15 ESE BWG 25 WNW JKL 20 S CRW CHO 15 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 35 NNW RBL 35 SW SVE RNO TPH SGU 10 SSE PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SERN U.S... S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX DRIVING CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TN VALLEY...WILL MOVE EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES...HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL OUTRUN THE RETURN FLOW. WITH SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT ACTIVITY CROSSES SRN APPALACHIANS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN THE INTERIM WELL DEFINED BOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EWD ACROSS TN/NRN GA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON TRAILING BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN AL INTO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AND MUCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG. WITH S/WV MOVING E OF THIS AREA...SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE EVENING. ...SRN CA... STRONG SURFACE/UPPER LOW FORECASTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF CENTRAL CA COAST AND GRADUALLY FILL NEXT 24 HOURS. THRU THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SRN CA COASTAL AREA. CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOS/WATER SPOUTS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR SLOWLY WEAKENS. ..HALES.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 21 20:06:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:06:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502212009.j1LK9AMb031877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212001 SWODY1 SPC AC 212000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SAV 20 NNE TOI 50 NE JAN 20 NW GLH 55 SW MEM 35 E MEM 25 N HSV CHA 20 N AND 30 NE CAE 10 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BVE LCH 35 S CLL 30 NE DRT 70 SSW SJT 30 NW SJT 50 ESE SPS 35 W HOT 25 NW LIT 40 SW JBR 40 NE MKL 35 ENE BWG 20 NW LEX 50 WNW HTS 15 NNE CRW 25 S EKN 25 ENE CHO 35 NNW ORF 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 S SSI 45 NW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 35 S RBL 55 W RNO 65 NNW BIH 45 S TPH 55 SW SGU 25 SSW PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN AR...ACROSS NRN MS/AL/GA AND PARTS OF SC... ...MS RIVER TO TN VLY TO SC COAST... SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE LEADING ARC OF TSTMS NOW MOVING INTO NC PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SURFACE-BASED STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER RAIN AND RESIDUAL CP AIRMASS. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE WITH THIS PARTICULAR BAND OF CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AIR MASS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE FROM THE LWR MS RIVER VLY ENEWD ACROSS AL/GA...AND NOW INTO PARTS OF SC. WHILE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THESE AREAS...ACROSS AR AND TN...DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK LINES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. REGION IS LIKELY EXPERIENCING ONLY FRINGE EFFECTS OF THE CHANNELED SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER TN/KY. HOWEVER...DEEP WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE COUPLED WITH WEAKLY CAPPED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG/...SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR INTENSIFYING STORMS WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. ...SRN CA... STRONGLY CYCLONIC DEEP LAYER FLOW CONTINUES WITHIN SERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW. WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL...STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL PROMOTE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS BENEATH COLD TEMPS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT NKX APPEAR TO HAVE VEERED PER LATEST VWP AND ACARS DATA...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS...WHILE SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED... BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S/SE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM LA BASIN NWD ALONG THE COAST. AS HEATING OF THE DAY AIDS IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS...ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST AND POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. ...NERN TX LATE... LATEST 18Z ETA CONTINUES EARLIER TREND IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS OVER CNTRL/NERN TX LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASE IN MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND ENCOUNTERS DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. PERSISTENT WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN BOTH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND STRONG SHEAR ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THUS...IF STORMS DO INITIATE OVER THE AREA...LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 02/21/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 01:09:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 20:09:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502220112.j1M1CW5Q009749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220109 SWODY1 SPC AC 220108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PRB 45 WNW SAC 35 ENE SAC 20 N NID 25 SE IPL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SAV 35 N AYS 30 SE CSG 35 NE CBM 35 E TUP 15 SSW MSL 20 WNW RMG 30 NNW AHN 20 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 25 SSE VLD 35 W MAI 45 E LUL 15 SSE HEZ 30 ESE CLL 20 NE COT 45 W HDO 55 WSW SJT 65 NE BGS 30 N MWL 15 WNW ELD 30 WNW UOX 35 NE MSL 20 N CSV 25 SW SHD 15 SSE MRB 30 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 35 N RBL 45 NW TVL 25 NNE BIH 15 NW DRA 55 SW SGU 25 SSW PRC 10 SE GBN 60 SSW GBN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AL ESEWD ACROSS GA INTO SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN CA... ...SERN CONUS... SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM WITH MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS GA AND INTO EXTREME SRN SC...WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM. THREAT DECREASES WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO MS...WHERE UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION -- WHICH LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY ACROSS MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTRAL GA / FAR SRN SC. ...CENTRAL AND SRN CA... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WHILE VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES CYCLONICALLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA. LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COLD /-22 TO -24 C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW HAS RESULTED IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL CA...LOCAL SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL -- WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S...FAST / DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ALONG EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF CA. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A SECOND LOBE OF VORTICITY FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LESSER THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL TX... MODELS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED / WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT. WITH THIS FEATURE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO 22/12Z. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 06:07:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 01:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502220610.j1M6Aipi001325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220608 SWODY1 SPC AC 220605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 35 NNE MRF 20 E CNM LBB 40 SSE CDS 30 SSW FTW 25 SSE TYR 55 S GLH 20 SW SEM 20 SE TOI 35 ENE CEW 20 SW PNS ...CONT... 25 E PSX 20 NNE COT 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 40 WSW GDP 40 ENE ALM 30 SSW 4CR 15 WSW ONM 60 WNW TCS 40 E DUG ...CONT... 35 SSW UKI 45 W RBL 30 E RBL TVL 35 NNW BIH 10 ESE TPH 35 NW ELY 50 N PUC 4FC LAA 35 ESE DDC 45 ESE FSM 25 ESE MEM 25 WSW RMG 40 ENE CAE 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 35 SSE VRB 10 NW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD / ROUGHLY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE COLD /-24C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CA / SRN NV. OTHERWISE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES / PLAINS STATES AND TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT / FAST WLY FLOW IN A BROAD ZONE CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SWD FROM ITS INITIAL POSITION FROM SC WWD INTO NERN TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES / SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN GA WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD / NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS SLY / SELY FLOW DEVELOPS S OF COLD FRONT...WHILE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE S OF FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST ACROSS TX AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION...WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SUB-TROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX INTO SERN NM WHERE MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS. FURTHER WWD INTO TX...SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY W TO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...WHERE STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND NRN TX EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP / VEER FROM SELY TO SSWLY WITH TIME. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ...SRN CA / AZ... DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA / AZ THIS PERIOD IN SERN QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AND THUS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- IS FORECAST ACROSS FAR SRN CA AND INTO SWRN AZ...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION THUS LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE BY AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. ..GOSS.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 12:45:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 07:45:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502221248.j1MCm3v8012488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221245 SWODY1 SPC AC 221244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW P07 35 NNE MRF HOB LBB SPS PRX ELD BHM ATL 30 NNW AGS 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... SSI 10 SSE SSI ABY 35 NNW CEW GPT ...CONT... 20 SE BPT SAT 30 NW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 15 NE RAL TRM 20 SW IPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 40 WSW GDP 4CR RTN LAA DDC MKO PBF RMG FLO 20 ENE CRE ...CONT... VRB PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW UKI 40 N UKI RBL TVL 55 NW TPH ELY 30 SE SLC CNY 30 NNW GUP 65 WNW SAD 60 SW TUS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO GA/SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA... ...SC/GA/AL/MS/LA... LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...ROUGHLY FROM NORTH GA INTO NORTHEAST TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS GA/AL/MS...AND BEGIN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OVER LA/TX BY TONIGHT. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER WEAK...AND UPPER FORCING WILL BE ILL-DEFINED. HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LA INTO GA/SC. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...TX... WESTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS TX THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF HAIL THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...AREA OF MOST FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX /MAF...SJT... JCT AREAS/ THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE. SUPERCELL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS REGION....SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHWEST AZ... MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF POINT CONCEPTION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY...WHILE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN CA. TIMING OF SYSTEMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY...SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AZ TONIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED LOW-END THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG THE COAST. ..HART.. 02/22/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 22 23:43:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 18:43:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502230108.j1N18sE5018705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230107 SWODY1 SPC AC 230105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W JCT 45 S MAF 55 ENE HOB 40 SE CVS 15 ENE PVW 30 SSE CDS 10 W SPS 10 S DUA 30 SE PRX 25 SSW GGG 40 W LFK 30 SW TPL 45 W JCT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE YUM 40 WSW EED 30 NW IGM 45 ESE PRC 55 SSW SOW 50 W SAD 15 NNW TUS 80 S GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S UKI 40 NNW UKI 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE RBL 55 SSW SVE 65 NNW BIH 40 S TPH 20 NW P38 10 WNW BCE 25 NNW 4BL 30 W ALS 30 WNW TAD 45 N EHA 35 SSE DDC 10 SSE PNC HOT 30 NW GLH 10 ESE GAD 35 NW AGS 25 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX NIR 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ... ...W TX EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AL... LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST INVOF COLD FRONT. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FURTHER W INTO TX...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS INDICATED. COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS N TX / THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD WITH TIME. WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE UPPER IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN MODERATE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. UPPER LOW...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL JET TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED STORMS -- AND THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL -- TO INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SWD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT. FURTHER S / WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH GREATEST THREAT SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN CA / WRN AND CENTRAL AZ... LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF AZ S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH MODERATE / DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH ORGANIZED / POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS. FURTHER W INTO SRN CA...INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MUCH WEAKER GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER. NONETHELESS...A STRONGER LOW-TOPPED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST / ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 04:45:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:45:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502230610.j1N6AscV016929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230608 SWODY1 SPC AC 230605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE NIR 30 SSW HDO 25 E P07 35 NE INK 35 ESE LBB 50 NW MWL 35 SE DAL 30 NW LFK 20 S HOU 20 ENE NIR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MEI 15 SSE TCL 25 W MCN 40 ENE ABY 35 ENE MAI 30 NNW PFN 15 W MOB 30 SSW LUL 45 NNW MEI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC 20 NW BIH 35 NE BIH 35 NE TPH 35 SSW SLC 15 S CAG 20 ESE 4FC 25 ENE PUB 20 ENE LAA 20 WSW P28 10 NNW BVO 35 ESE FYV 40 NE PBF 35 ESE TUP 15 SE RMG 40 NW AGS 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE / CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AGAIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE SW. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT LINGERING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WWD INTO TX WILL AGAIN SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. ...TX... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS TX IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF FRONTAL SURGES SWD ACROSS TX...WITH SCENARIO TO BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NERN TX / OK...WITH SOME COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW / FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL TX COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLOWLY COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON. THOUGH MODELS NOR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE WHICH MIGHT AFFECT THIS REGION...FORCING ALONG / N OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED SUGGEST NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE /30 TO 35 KT/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS / A FEW SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR OR JUST N OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL / SERN TX...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY / GULF COAST STATES... SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER W TO E ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MINOR OSCILLATIONS IN FRONTAL POSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION A WEAK EWD-MOVING WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX INTO LA ROUGHLY ALONG SURFACE FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NEW CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS INVOF SURFACE FRONT...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SHEAR -- ALONG WITH INSTABILITY -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FOR MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST JUST DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- LIKELY FROM SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA -- WHERE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD EXIST. ...DESERT SW... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM SRN CA ROUGHLY ALONG THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER. AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRONGER FLOW SUPPRESSED GENERALLY S OF THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...DESPITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL / DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL / WIND THREAT FROM SRN CA EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN AZ. ..GOSS.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 11:22:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 06:22:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502231247.j1NClVUX022410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231244 SWODY1 SPC AC 231242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX 40 SSW PSX NIR DRT P07 25 NE INK LBB SPS GGG MLU TCL LGC MCN ABY MAI 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL ELY VEL CAG 4FC COS LAA P28 TBN CGI 35 ENE MKL CHA AND 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW FROM TX TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO CENTRAL GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE ABOVE FRONT. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE 1500-2000 J/KG. ...EAST TX/LA/MS/AL... PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EAST TX WILL TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS LA INTO MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS OBSERVED WITHIN THIS CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST AL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. ...TX... NAM/RUC GUIDANCE AGREE ON MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST TX...AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER LOW. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG/ AND INCREASING UVVS WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TX TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CA/AZ... CORE OF UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY THIS EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER LOW. ..HART.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 15:03:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 10:03:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502231628.j1NGSs2u022885@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231625 SWODY1 SPC AC 231624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PSX 40 SSW PSX NIR DRT P07 25 NE INK LBB 10 W DAL 45 E SHV 40 WSW GLH TCL LGC MCN ABY MAI 30 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL ELY VEL CAG 4FC COS LAA P28 TBN CGI 35 ENE MKL CHA AND 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS GULF STATES... ...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION... CONFLUENT FLOW SRN PLAINS EWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS SRN CA INTO AZ BY 12Z THU. A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS FROM CENTRAL TX EWD THRU SRN PORTION OF GULF STATES. MCS WHICH DEVELOPED OUT OF OVERNIGHT TX SEVERE HAS CONTINUED EWD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. COOL..MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. ...SRN PLAINS EWD ALONG GULF COAST STATES... THE CONFLUENT WLY FLOW LWR MS VALLEY OF 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP/COOL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AN EXCEPTION FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE MCS NOW MOVING EWD INTO LA. IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY WITH SURFACE HEATING AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY MORE DISORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP VICINITY OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN MORE MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL RISK. IN THE WAKE OF MCS...AIR MASS CENTRAL TX WWD TO HILL COUNTRY SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SERN CA/AZ... WHILE SHEAR WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES ARE 7-8C/KM ALONG WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG VERTICAL MOTION. ..HALES.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 18:57:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:57:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502232022.j1NKMiAj022572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232020 SWODY1 SPC AC 232019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 15 NW VCT 15 ENE HDO 60 N DRT 45 NNE P07 45 ENE FST 15 SSE MAF 15 SW BGS 40 ESE BGS 30 SSW ABI 25 NNE BWD 25 ENE SEP 20 SSW DAL 35 SE DAL 35 WSW TYR 55 SSW TYR 35 W LFK LFK 25 W POE 35 NE ESF 35 WNW JAN 45 NNW MEI TCL 30 SW ANB 35 E LGC 10 SE MCN 50 SE MCN 50 NNW AYS 50 NE MGR 15 S ABY 15 SSE DHN 20 ENE CEW 25 NNE PNS 35 SSE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PBI 10 NNW SRQ ...CONT... 35 WSW PRB 35 WSW SAC 30 NNW SAC 45 NE SAC TVL 15 WNW ELY 30 W VEL 20 SSE CAG 50 NW COS 35 S EHA 40 SSW GAG 35 N FSI 30 E MLC 45 NNW LIT 15 SSW ARG 30 NW DYR 40 SW BNA 60 S TYS 40 SE SPA ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL AND ERN TX EASTWARD ACROSS LA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SERN LA/MS/AL/WRN GA... MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY COVERS MUCH OF ERN AND SRN LA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MS AND INTO WRN AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG BOWING ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ITS INTERSECTION WITH W-E BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM SCNTRL MS EWD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE W-E BOUNDARY WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN AL AND WRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MCS ARRIVES. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS WILL FAVOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LINE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE APPEAR EQUALLY LIKELY...A SMALL TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY LONGER LIVED UPDRAFT TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ...SRN NM TO SCNTRL TX... PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WARMING FROM SRN NM ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WAS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING IN THE DRIER AIR MASS NORTHEAST OF BIG BEND...AND NORTH OF ELP. A NUMBER OF FORCING MECHANISMS...LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE...WILL PLAY INTO TSTM EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH EVENING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL AID IN FOCUSING LOW LEVEL ASCENT WHILE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSIST OVER A LARGE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CA/AZ UPPER LOW. WHILE STORMS FROM NM ACROSS WEST TX SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY...SHEAR/DYNAMIC FORCING...LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CHANCE OF HAIL/WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF ONGOING STORM IN TERRELL COUNTY TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION COUPLES WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY. FRONTAL ZONE ALSO INTERSECTS REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LA MCS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP/INITIATE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND GENERALLY HIGH LFC. HOWEVER...LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF SR FLOW AND LOWER LFC NEAR OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO IF AN ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN MOVE INTO THIS AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHWEST... TSTMS WERE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ/NM...AS WELL AS BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY. MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. REGION EXPERIENCING STRONGEST LIFT/DESTABILIZATION IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. NONETHELESS...A FEW HAIL EVENTS ARE QUITE LIKELY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS AND PERHAPS BRIEF FUNNELS. ..CARBIN.. 02/23/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 23 23:41:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 18:41:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502240106.j1O16bDQ014411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240104 SWODY1 SPC AC 240102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 30 WSW VCT COT DRT 45 ENE P07 SJT ACT LFK 25 NNW LCH 25 S HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MRY 30 SE SCK 15 NW BIH 10 ESE TPH MLF U28 MTJ CVS 55 NE BGS 40 N FTW HOT MEM MSL 45 SE LOZ TRI CLT 10 E SOP 40 ESE EWN ...CONT... VRB 15 N SRQ ...CONT... 35 SSE DMN 25 SSW SVC 30 NE FHU 35 WSW FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...IN THE WAKE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH CONFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE RIDGE AND INTRUSION OF DEEPER COLD AIR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND WILL POSE PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEN...LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE FRONTAL BAND. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT RISK OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN STRONGER CELLS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS REGION... WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. COLD AIR ALOFT AND FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL APPROACHING...OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING...SEVERE LIMITS...GIVEN FAVORABLE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS. ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS. EXCEPTION MAY BE COASTAL GEORGIA/CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...WHERE/WHEN STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL COMMENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. RETURN FLOW OF MODIFYING AIR MASS OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 04:27:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 23:27:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502240552.j1O5qG2M003464@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240550 SWODY1 SPC AC 240548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST WED FEB 23 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DAB 15 NNW PIE ...CONT... PFN ABY MCN 30 ESE CLT RDU 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF P07 JCT AUS LFK POE 35 W BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER 35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ GUP TCS 35 WNW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST...BUT MODELS DO INDICATE NORTHWESTERN U.S. CENTER OF HIGH HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CLOSED LOW WILL BOTH WEAKEN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...CONFLUENCE OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF STATES. PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ...SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY...BEFORE MORE RAPID DEEPENING OCCURS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EVOLVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ABOVE DEEPENING SURFACE-BASED COLD INTRUSION...WHICH...BY 24/12Z...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS RISK OF STRONGER STORMS TO AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR/ NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIVER BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR FAIRLY LOW. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ARIZONA LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/ DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR STORMS WITH HAIL TODAY. POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WHEN MOST UNSTABLE CAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL BE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SPEED MAXIMUM PROGRESSING SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/SONORA BORDER. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST... MODELS SUGGEST INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OUTER BANKS AREA OF NORTH CAROLINA TO SUPPORT MENTION/OUTLOOK OF AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. CURRENT MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OFF COASTAL AREAS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS. IF IT OCCURS...INLAND INTRUSION OF WARM SECTOR ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/ OUTER BANKS AREA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS. ..KERR.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 10:32:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 05:32:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502241157.j1OBviPs005160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241155 SWODY1 SPC AC 241154 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 10 NE ALI 10 WNW PSX 10 NNE HOU 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN MAI 30 E MCN CAE GSB 25 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER 35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB MAF BWD DAL SHV BTR 10 ESE BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS MORNING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST... ...TX... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE BAND OF RATHER STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM TX ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MCS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS /REF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 38 AND 39/. ...AZ/NM... POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINS OVER AZ AND WESTERN NM TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER LOW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL IN THIS REGION TODAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. ..HART.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 14:53:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 09:53:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502241618.j1OGIw6E016315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241614 SWODY1 SPC AC 241613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NE MER 35 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 SE INK 30 SSW SAT 10 ESE VCT 40 ESE LFK BTR 10 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ 15 NNW VLD 55 S AGS 15 SE CAE GSB 25 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE COLD TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER NERN U.S...THE OLD SWRN UPPER LOW HAS STALLED ITS ERN MOVEMENT UNDER THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER PAC NW. E/W COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL TX CONTINUES SLOW SWD MOVEMENT HOWEVER PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE FROM TX COAST. ...S TX... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD DEEP S TX THIS AM AND WILL BE THRU BRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY VICINITY LOWER RIO GRANDE WHERE THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE AVAILABLE. WHILE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...HAVE CONTINUED A LOW RISK FOR POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL AVAILABLE S OF COLD FRONT. ...AZ... OLD UPPER LOW HAS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AM NWRN MARICOPA CO. WITH LOW TRAPPED UNDER THE NWRN U.S. UPPER HIGH...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CIRCULATION CENTER WILL POSSIBLY DRIFT BACK TO THE W OR NW. THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH THE RADAR ANIMATION OF THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER MARICOPA CO. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WITH 7-7.5C/KM LAPSE RATES AZ INTO SRN CA COUPLED WITH HEATING...CONVECTION WILL BECOME COMMON FROM SRN CA MTS EWD ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIALLY MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG...STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HAIL...POSSIBLY NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SCENTRAL AZ. ..HALES.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 18:41:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 13:41:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502242006.j1OK6bZp030420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242002 SWODY1 SPC AC 242001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ AYS 40 WNW CHS 30 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NNE MER 40 W TPH 40 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 ESE INK 30 ESE HDO 45 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 35 NW POE 40 NNW ESF 20 NE HEZ 40 NNW MOB 35 SSE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL SRN/SERN LA... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN GULF. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS HAD MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE AN E-W BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF HAD RETREATED NWD TO ALONG THE SRN/SERN LA COAST. 60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED 60-70 MILES S/SSW OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST WITH THE BOW STRUCTURE. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW. ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SRN/SERN LA COAST WHERE THE E-W BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH 00Z. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH EACH OF THE SHORT WAVES HAVE ALLOWED CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PER VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION. HAIL WITH SOME REPORTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SMALL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 20:06:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 15:06:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502242131.j1OLVl4c009725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242121 SWODY1 SPC AC 242119 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HUM HUM 15 SE MSY 35 SSW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AQQ AYS 40 WNW CHS 30 E ECG ...CONT... DAB 15 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PRB 10 NNE MER 40 W TPH 40 SSW ELY CNY CEZ SAF HOB 25 ESE INK 30 ESE HDO 45 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 35 NW POE 40 NNW ESF 20 NE HEZ 40 NNW MOB 35 SSE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA... AMENDED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF SERN LA TO A SLIGHT RISK ...COASTAL SERN LA... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF MCS/BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN GULF TO JUST INLAND OF SRN LA IN TERREBONNE COUNTY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W BOUNDARY HAD RETREATED NWD TO ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SERN LA COAST. 60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED JUST OFFSHORE WITH THE BOW ECHO...WHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW. ENVIRONMENT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SRN/SERN LA COAST WHERE THE E-W BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH 00Z. ...DISCUSSION FROM 20Z... ...SOUTHWEST STATES... UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH EACH OF THE SHORT WAVES HAVE ALLOWED CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON PER VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE AZ/NM BORDER REGION. HAIL WITH SOME REPORTS APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED SWD THROUGH BRO...WHILE COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CU/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER... OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO SMALL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..PETERS.. 02/24/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 24 23:12:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 18:12:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502250038.j1P0c47l008527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250035 SWODY1 SPC AC 250033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM 20 N MSY 30 SSE LUL TOI 20 SSE MCN 45 SSW CHS ...CONT... DAB 40 SSE GNV 60 NNE PIE 35 ENE SRQ 40 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW VBG 10 N PRB 40 NW BFL 30 ENE SCK 25 WSW TVL 50 SSE BIH 35 NW P38 15 SSE MTJ 55 ESE DRO GUP 60 E SOW 20 W ALM 30 SE ELP 40 WNW MRF 95 SW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... GIVEN FAVORABLE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING/ OROGRAPHY BENEATH ELONGATED SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH PASSAGE OF PEAK HEATING...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... AS BLOCK IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEAKENS... AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACCELERATES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... STRONGER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. UPPER SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ALREADY APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. A CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT TENDENCY FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH COASTAL WATERS WEST/NORTHEAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECAME FOCUSED SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER THIS EVENING SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE. ..KERR.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 04:23:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 23:23:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502250548.j1P5mD7W021239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250546 SWODY1 SPC AC 250544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST THU FEB 24 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 40 ESE PRB 30 SSW FAT 30 SSE SCK 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 50 SSE NFL 50 SSE U31 10 W ELY 10 W SLC 45 ESE VEL GJT FMN GNT 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...BUT MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH CENTER. THIS PROCESS ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING/FLATTENING CREST OF RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS HIGH WEAKENS...SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT TO MAJOR AXIS OF BROADENING SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION IS PROGGED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN CYCLONIC BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE... IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC APPEARS TO BE PHASING WITH STRONG BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECAST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE TONIGHT. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUOY/SHIP DATA AND LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER... WHICH NOW APPEARS MOSTLY CORRELATED WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AS EXIT REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET NOSES EAST OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU ...ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH DAYBREAK... MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY WILL PERSIST. THIS CLUSTER MAY APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS 12Z. EARLY INLAND DEVELOPMENT MAY PRECLUDE CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA...PROVIDING PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT. LOW/MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MODELS DO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF 20 TO 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH WEAK WAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH CONVECTION... BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS/SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT ANY LINGERING DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHY APPEAR LIKELY TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FORCING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON CAPE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SMALL HAIL IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ...TEXAS... COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST IN THE LEE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...AND MUCH OF THE GULF STATES. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES ACROSS BAJA AND THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU LATER TODAY/TONIGHT... FOCUSED AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE PLATEAU...ABOVE INVERSION LAYER INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER AND WEAKNESS OF ELEVATED CAPE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 11:13:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 06:13:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502251238.j1PCcY00017262@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251236 SWODY1 SPC AC 251234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 40 ESE PRB 30 SSW FAT 30 SSE SCK 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 50 SSE NFL 50 SSE U31 10 W ELY 10 W SLC 45 ESE VEL 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS GNT 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ...MAINTAINING COOL CYCLONIC CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ERN U.S. AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM REX-TYPE PATTERN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS /1/ PART OF THE SW U.S. UPPER LOW SHEARS E/NE INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS AND /2/ ANTICYCLONIC MEMBER NOW OVER ID/WY RETROGRESSES WWD. AT LOWER LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS WILL SETTLE S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRESH SURGE OF POLAR AIR THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF SURFACE SYSTEM DEPARTING THE NERN STATES. ...FL... FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE NRN GULF DURING THE PAST 18 HRS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY FORM IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND CROSS CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW EMBEDDED...WEAKLY ROTATING CELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT RELATIVELY WEAK /AROUND 6.5 DEG PER KM/ LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT VERY LIMITED. FARTHER S...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE RELATED TO A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE SRN QUARTER OF THE PENINSULA. BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO CLEAR THE STATE... SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES LATER THIS MORNING. BUT LINEAR CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED IN THIS REGION AS WELL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ...TX... LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY EARLY SATURDAY AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW WELL W OF BAJA CA ACCELERATES ENE INTO MEXICO. INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER NRN MEXICO THAT MAY EXPAND NWD/EWD INTO PARTS OF SRN AND SW TX. GIVEN EXPECTED DEPTH OF POLAR AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER REGION...IT APPEARS THAT DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE WHICH WILL DEVELOP WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO YIELD SEVERE HAIL N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ...SWRN U.S.... RESIDUAL POCKET OF COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION/ THUNDER OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE SIZE OF ANY ASSOCIATED HAIL STONES SMALL. ..CORFIDI.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 15:11:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 10:11:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502251636.j1PGaRcK012656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251622 SWODY1 SPC AC 251619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 30 SSW FAT 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 75 SW ELY 45 NNW GJT 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS 65 ESE SOW 30 E PHX 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... PAIR OF SURFACE FRONTS EXTEND ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS FL THIS MORNING. SRN MOST BOUNDARY IS DELINEATING A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM JUST SOUTH OF PBI SWWD INTO NRN MONROE COUNTY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SBCAPES ARE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY. PRIMARY NEGATIVE CONTINUES TO BE LACK OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AS IT WASHES OUT TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ARE SWLY WHILE ONLY WEAK/CALM WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND IT...SUGGESTING CONVECTION MAY REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS SMALL WARM SECTOR. CONVERGENCE REMAINS MUCH STRONGER NEAR PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND MODEST SBCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES AND SUSTAIN STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION... THOUGH EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER SWRN TX AND NERN MEXICO...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT INTO THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY THEREFORE SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. ...CA INTO THE 4-CORNERS... MEANDERING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY AS BROAD POCKET OF -22C TO -24C H5 AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THUS...REGION SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 18:36:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 13:36:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502252001.j1PK1jeL005112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252000 SWODY1 SPC AC 251958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 30 SSW FAT 10 NW SAC 45 SE RBL 45 SW SVE RNO 75 SW ELY 45 NNW GJT 30 ESE ASE 40 SW ALS 75 NNW SVC 30 SSE SAD 70 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF FST 45 WNW SJT 10 S JCT HDO NIR 35 SSE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY 12Z SATURDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WITH A WEAK LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL...AND A DEVELOPING LOW NE OF MLB. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS FAR SRN FL... WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF SPREADING EWD AND FURTHER INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STRONGER STORMS...WITH A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INLAND WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. FARTHER S...THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF SRN FL...LIMITING A SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THIS PORTION OF MAINLAND FL. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD TOWARD THE LOWER FL KEYS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS THEY ARE UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ...CA INTO THE 4-CORNERS... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR/ INSTABILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID LEVEL JET APPROACHES THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 02/25/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 25 23:15:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 18:15:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502260040.j1Q0ee3U001314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260038 SWODY1 SPC AC 260036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PIE 10 NE MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBA 15 NNW SMX 45 ESE MRY 50 SSW MER 45 NE PRB 40 W BFL BFL FAT SAC UKI ACV 20 SW MHS 45 SW SVE RNO P38 U17 FMN GNT 65 SSW GNT PHX 60 ESE BLH 10 SSW YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW MRF 50 NNE MRF 40 SSE MAF SJT 10 S AUS 20 NNW VCT 30 E CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING UPPER HIGH/LOW COUPLET OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT AT LESSER AMPLITUDE THAN IN RECENT DAYS...AS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS FLATTENED CREST OF RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. OF MORE CONCERN TO THE SHORTER TERM CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...PROGRESSING INTO/ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPEARS TO PHASING WITH AN IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES...AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SHORT WAVE RIDGING...NOW AMPLIFYING IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF REGION...WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... WHILE SUBTLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITH ELONGATING SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION MAY HAVE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...MOST PROMINENT FORCING APPEARS TO BE HEATING/OROGRAPHY BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RAPID DECREASE IN ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN OCCUR AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... STABILIZING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LINGERING THREAT SHOULD END BY/SHORTLY AFTER 26/06Z...AS WARMING MID-LEVELS STRENGTHEN INHIBITION ACROSS REGION. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS... MODELS SUGGEST EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY INFLUX OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY 26/12Z. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ABOVE DEEP INVERSION LAYER...WITH LIMITED CAPE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..KERR.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 04:32:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 23:32:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502260557.j1Q5vSue003121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SEP PRX ELD 45 ESE LUL 15 SSE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 50 WSW EED BIH 35 E SAC SVE LOL U31 35 NW MLF PUC GJT 10 NE 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/ BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND RE-AMPLIFICATION OF NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST BROADER SCALE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL FINALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INTERACTING IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAMS APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF MODEL VARIABILITY... PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO SURFACE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND AREAS NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST. LATEST NAM RUN FORECASTS STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT THAN THE GFS. THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR ON NORTHERN EDGE OF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD FORM ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN IF NAM VERIFIES CLOSER THAN GFS...CURRENT STATE OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR EVEN IN COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS/LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. ...TEXAS/LOUISIANA... MID/UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ONGOING. AS EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...LAPSE RATES ABOVE STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD...WITH POSSIBLE CONTINUING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. THIS MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. ...GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES... BEFORE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ..KERR.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 11:29:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 06:29:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502261254.j1QCsYWA008020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261253 SWODY1 SPC AC 261251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SEP PRX ELD 45 ESE LUL 15 SSE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 50 WSW EED BIH 35 E SAC SVE 15 ENE LOL 60 E ELY 45 S VEL 10 WNW 4FC 45 W PUB 10 N 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS CONCERNED WILL BE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW CROSSING BAJA CA. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED THAN PROGGED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...A FACTOR WHICH MAY AFFECT SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WRN PART OF FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS BAJA SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD LATER TODAY...EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. IT SHOULD REACH THE NRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE S OF BVE/MOB. FARTHER W...AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE FLUXES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. ...TX/LA... EXPECT RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING BAJA UPPER SYSTEM TO EXPAND NWD AND EWD ACROSS TX AND THE NW GULF CSTL REGION LATER TODAY. RAIN FALLING INTO EXISTING CP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ONSHORE AIR MASS RECOVERY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT GRADUAL STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM W TO E...ALONG WITH PERSISTENT ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLUX AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPPER IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTION/SCATTERED THUNDER FROM S TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND. ..CORFIDI.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 14:52:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 09:52:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502261617.j1QGHSBp019915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261614 SWODY1 SPC AC 261612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 25 W CLL 40 S SHV 35 W MCB 20 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 40 N SAN 30 NNE OXR 20 SE SAC SVE 15 ENE LOL 60 E ELY 45 S VEL 10 WNW 4FC 45 W PUB 10 N 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PIE 30 N DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST INTO SRN ROCKIES... APPEARS ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION AS COOL MID LEVELS AND AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AOB -24C FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPES TO 500 J/KG. THOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...STORMS WHICH CAN FORM NEARER THE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN CA MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ...FL... HAVE ADDED A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN FL AS FORECAST AND MODIFIED OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LIMITED LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. ...TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS PERSISTING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS ENEWD THROUGH TONIGHT...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION AS MID LEVELS COOL AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..EVANS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 18:41:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 13:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502262006.j1QK6rEw025083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 262002 SWODY1 SPC AC 262000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW PIE 30 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 25 W CLL 40 S SHV MCB 25 ESE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS GBN 40 N SAN 30 NNE OXR SAC SVE 55 SW ENV 60 ENE ELY 45 S VEL 25 SW FCL 10 ENE COS 55 WSW RTN 10 NE 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST INTO SRN ROCKIES... VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN SEWD TO SERN AZ/SWRN NM. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF ASCENT LOCATED WITHIN BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CA TO THE ROCKIES ATOP SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT SOME HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF SRN CA WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...FL... ALTHOUGH MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH WEAK...FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED CU IS STRUGGLING TO SUSTAIN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT/ATTAIN SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION. A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SMALL. ...TX INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... VIS/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX TOWARD OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE CLOUDS OVER SRN/ERN TX WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION...COMBINED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WAS BEING MAXIMIZED FOR SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE CONFINED TO THE COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN CHIHUAHUA. INCREASING SLY LLJ INTO THE TX COAST THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD WILL ADVECT HIGHER THETAE AIR NWD ATOP THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THEN NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AVAILABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX COAST TOWARD SRN LA. ..PETERS.. 02/26/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 26 23:11:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 18:11:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502270036.j1R0aqFL007413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270034 SWODY1 SPC AC 270032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 15 ENE CEW 30 E MAI 20 NNE CTY 45 ESE JAX ...CONT... 45 N BRO 40 NW VCT 40 ENE LFK 30 NNE BTR 40 S GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 50 E YUM 15 WSW TRM 10 ESE MER 40 NE SCK 20 N NFL 30 NNW ELY 45 ENE MLF 45 ESE CNY 35 ESE ASE 30 WSW PUB 55 WSW RTN 10 NE 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM SERN NV INTO E-CNTRL AZ AND SWRN NM. DESPITE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING INVOF THIS SHEAR AXIS...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ...GULF COAST... CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER OVER TX WITH ASSOCIATED 130 KT SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS /PER 00Z BRO/CRP OBSERVATIONS/ OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM S OF BUOY 42002 IN THE WRN GULF EWD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO FIRST DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NWRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE TX/LA COASTS. SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NERN GULF BASIN AS LLJ AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WAA SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-JET AXIS. ..MEAD.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 04:02:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2005 23:02:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502270527.j1R5RTr6026020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270525 SWODY1 SPC AC 270523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AQQ 20 SW TLH 30 NW SAV 20 NW OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 40 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 60 WSW JCT 25 SE DMN 10 E PHX 40 SSE PRC 25 WSW INW 40 WSW GNT 45 NNE SAF 15 W LAA 25 NE DDC 30 SSW END 35 W ADM 35 SW PRX 35 SE MLU 15 SE BHM 25 ENE AHN 30 NE LYH 25 S WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL NEWD TO THE NC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRANCH OF SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TX AND ADJACENT NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/NRN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS...UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER S-CNTRL CANADA WILL DIVE SSEWD...REACHING LOWER MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO VICINITY OF THE ERN FL PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TO THE NC COAST BY 28/12Z. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. FARTHER NW...COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH SWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN IL INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. ...FL NEWD TO THE NC COAST... EXPECT TSTMS TO BE ONGOING AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME FROM THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY N OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. HERE...VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 M/S/ WILL EXIST WITHIN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP OWING TO ANTECEDENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG/ WILL DEVELOP NEAR WARM FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MORE PROBABLE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE NEWD ACROSS SERN GA AND THE CAROLINA COASTS TONIGHT IN CONCERT WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ALONG TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RESULTING FROM PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..MEAD.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 11:13:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 06:13:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502271238.j1RCcj5H017087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271236 SWODY1 SPC AC 271234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AQQ MGR 10 SE SAV 10 SSE CRE 20 NNW OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 50 SW SJT 25 SE DMN 10 E PHX 40 SSE PRC 25 WSW INW 40 WSW GNT 45 NNE SAF 35 NNE TAD 35 SE DEN 45 NNW 4FC 20 NNW RWL 25 ENE CPR 30 W BFF 15 NNW IML 30 ESE GLD 25 NNE DDC 30 SSW END 35 W ADM 35 SW PRX 35 SE MLU 15 SE BHM 25 ENE AHN 30 NE LYH 25 S WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND THE S ATLANTIC CST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY STRONG SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/NE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS PERIOD AS WEAKER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER SRN CO/NRN NM SAGS SE INTO TX. SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH...ATTM CENTERED AROUND 200 MILES SSW OF BVE...SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT HEADS ENE ACROSS N FL LATER TODAY. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE REDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE NE FL CST. ...FL/SE GA... CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA AS WARM FRONT...NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF FMY TO NEAR VRB...LIFTS NWD TO NEAR JAX. PRESSURE FALL PATTERN OVER FL AND THE CNTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WAVE NOW S OF BVE WILL TRACK ENE TOWARD N FL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW OVER S FL TO SPREAD NWD TO NEAR CTY/GNV/JAX. CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL MCS OFF THE WRN FL CST WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL FL AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. BUT EVEN WITH ONLY MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BOOST AVERAGE SBCAPE TO AOA 500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM TPA TO GNV. GIVEN CONVERGENT NATURE OF FLOW FIELD...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BOTH ALONG WARM FRONT AND WITHIN WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 60-70 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH IS NOW OVER THE N CNTRL GULF. AS THE SPEED MAX CONTINUES EWD...DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AOA 60 KTS OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND RICH MOISTURE INFLOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS...MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM GULF SURFACE WAVE LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. VEERED LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND DECREASING INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED. ...ERN CAROLINAS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE SC/NC COASTAL PLAIN. THIS CURRENT OF COLD AIR IS BEING FED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN WAKE OF DEEP CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW. THE SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AUGMENTED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF RAIN FALLING INTO IT. IN ADDITION... SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE GULF SURFACE WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER IT HAS REDEVELOPED OFF THE NE CST OF FL. THUS... EXPECT THAT WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC CST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARM SECTOR MAY...HOWEVER...CLIP THE CAPE FEAR AREA OF NC EARLY MONDAY...WHERE THE KINEMATIC SETUP WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. BUT WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...SEVERE POTENTIAL INLAND SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ...TX PNHDL TO W CNTRL TX... WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CO/NM VORT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX LATER TODAY. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING AT MID LEVELS /AOB MINUS 24C AT 500 MB/...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH HAIL. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND MODEST CLOUD LAYER SHEAR... INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AND SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..CORFIDI.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 15:05:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 10:05:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502271630.j1RGUAeV010048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271627 SWODY1 SPC AC 271626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 20 SW AYS 10 ESE SAV 10 SSE CRE 20 NNW OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 20 E MER 40 W PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 20 NNW BTR 20 E LUL 20 WNW AUO 35 S AHN 20 ENE CLT 10 NNE RDU 10 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL 15 WSW JCT 25 S INK 40 SE DMN 15 E PHX 35 SE PRC 10 SW INW 40 S GUP 45 NNW LVS 35 S PUB 20 SSW FCL 25 NNE AKO 45 N GAG 20 S FSI 25 SSW DAL 20 S TPL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL INTO THE GA/SC/NC COAST... ...FL TO GA/SC/NC COAST.... LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF MID/UPPER WAVE NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NRN FL LATER TODAY AND LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GA/SC COAST OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL-DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL FL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD CONTINUES TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS INTO NRN FL WILL ALLOW THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO LIFT NWD INTO NERN FL BY LATE IN THE DAY. MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING NOW OCCURRING OVER SRN FL WILL ENHANCE SBCAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD NNEWD DURING THE PERIOD...BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED SHEAR AND INCREASING SBCAPES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF FL TODAY...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY PRIMARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL LATER TONIGHT. SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAINTAIN A MORE SLY COMPONENT AND NEAR LOW CENTER LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GRADUAL VEERING OF THE SFC-H85 WINDS TODAY ACROSS FL MAY SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR NATURE TO CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. ...NWRN TX... MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF WEAK WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK LATER TODAY. DESPITE THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT BECOME ADEQUATE FOR MOIST CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD. ..EVANS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 18:44:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 13:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502272008.j1RK8vWc002366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272006 SWODY1 SPC AC 272004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH 20 SW AYS 10 ESE SAV 10 SSW CRE 25 N OAJ 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 35 SW BFL SBA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GPT 40 E LUL SEM 20 WNW AUO 35 S AHN 20 ENE CLT 10 NNE RDU 20 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TPL 15 WSW JCT 30 WNW FST 40 SE DMN 15 E PHX 35 SE PRC 20 NNE INW 35 NNW GUP 50 NNE SAF 30 NE ALS 20 SSW FCL 25 NNE AKO 45 N GAG 20 S FSI 25 SSW DAL 20 S TPL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL TO THE GA/SC/NC COAST...... ...FL TO GA/SC/NC COAST... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED AN AXIS OF PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF TO NRN FL AND OFF THE GA/NRN FL COAST. THIS IS THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A COOLER MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ACROSS GA/SC IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM MOVING INLAND OVER SC. THIS FURTHER SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD TO ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AREA VADS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER SRN FL...MAINLY SOUTH OF WW 041...ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SW... INDICATIVE THAT STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM SRN FL. THUS...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD...AND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NRN FL TO THE GA COAST BY 00-03Z. A SECOND EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...NWRN TX... LIGHTNING DATA/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN NM IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX AT THIS TIME. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/NWRN TX...WHERE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 02/27/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 27 23:34:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 18:34:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502280059.j1S0xIfl029131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280056 SWODY1 SPC AC 280055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 60 SW RDM 35 NNW MHS 50 NNE SAC 35 SW BFL SBA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PSX 15 NNW NIR 10 N FST 20 WNW ELP SVC 70 WNW TCS 40 WSW ABQ 20 W LVS 30 S CAO 25 S GAG FSI 30 NE HOU 40 ENE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY AYS 30 NNW CAE 30 SE DAN 20 ENE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... 00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED 998 MB SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE FL COAST E OF JAX WITH A RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FARTHER N ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTIONS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST TO THE E/NE OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OWING TO STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ATTM APPEARS TO BE THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY AND NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA... TRAILING COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA /JUST S OF CTY/ AND INTO THE ERN GULF TO S OF BUOY 42036. 00Z TBW...MFL AND EYW SOUNDINGS ALL STILL INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ AND STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THIS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING SHIFTING TO THE NE OF THE REGION. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW SOME WEAK SIGNAL ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR TBW LATE TONIGHT. CORRESPONDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...WRN INTO CNTRL TX... TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM VICINITY OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN PNHDL/S PLAINS SEWD TO E OF BWD. RATHER STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL S OF LBB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OWING TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 04:11:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 23:11:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502280536.j1S5a3MS004248@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280533 SWODY1 SPC AC 280531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI 35 W EAT 55 W PDT 25 SSE RDM 15 NW LMT CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 10 S SAT 40 WNW AUS 20 NE TPL 45 ENE CLL 25 ENE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG...SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SERN STATES. FARTHER N...STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF PHASING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS /CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY AND TX WILL/ WITH RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY. IN THE W...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITH PROGRESS EWD THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...INTENSE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. ...TX... TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS WILL EXIST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. ...WA/ORE... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 43N/130W WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF LOW AND ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE... THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL OPEN AND LIFT NEWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT APPEARS THE BEST COUPLING OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER COASTAL AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WA/ORE TODAY...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS. ..MEAD.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 11:41:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 06:41:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502281305.j1SD5uaN028807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281303 SWODY1 SPC AC 281301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 50 WNW EAT 15 W YKM 15 NE RDM 45 S EUG 30 N OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE MID MS VLY DEEPENS EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. FAST SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MEXICO/THE NRN GULF AND FL...WHILE SYSTEM NOW ENTERING ORE WEAKENS IN LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST WILL EDGE SLOWLY S ACROSS EXTREME SRN FL TODAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FL STRAITS BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...EXTREME S FL... A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN STREAM JET...ATTM OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE S FL REGION AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. 50-60 KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIKELY BOOST SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...WA/ORE... A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY REMNANT UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SYSTEM CROSSING WRN WA/ORE. ...NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVER NRN PORTIONS OF MS...AL AND GA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID MS VLY TROUGH GLANCES REGION. EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A THUNDER AREA ATTM. ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 15:01:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 10:01:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502281626.j1SGQpUR011127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281624 SWODY1 SPC AC 281622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 50 WNW EAT 40 N DLS 25 WNW RDM 45 S EUG 30 N OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AND FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS INTO THE BAHAMAS AT 16Z. THUS... EXPECT MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NNEWD NEAR THE KEYS TODAY. ALSO...MAIN COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO SRN FL AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR PBI TO JUST SOUTH OF APF AT 16Z. THOUGH CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WLY FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR...THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONVERGENCE SUFFICE. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND AROUND SEVERE LEVELS AND WARRANTS MAINTAINING LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...PAC NW... UPPER LOW AND ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ..EVANS.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 18:37:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 13:37:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200502282002.j1SK26JZ021402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282000 SWODY1 SPC AC 281958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... TSTMS ARE PERSISTING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. AIRMASS INVOF THE FRONT WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SRN TIP OF FL AND THE KEYS. DESPITE WLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG SHEAR COULD STILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 02/28/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 28 23:30:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Feb 2005 18:30:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200503010055.j210t7Wp000595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010052 SWODY1 SPC AC 010050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST MON FEB 28 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW ELY 55 E ELY 40 SW PUC 25 SE U17 45 NNW INW 25 NNW PRC 25 SSE IGM 20 S LAS 50 NNE DRA 65 SW ELY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NV...UT AND AZ... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NV INTO WRN UT AND FAR NWRN AZ. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS REGION AND THROUGH MEAN RIDGE POSITION. 00Z DESERT ROCK SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM AND A SBCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG. GIVEN THESE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EWD INTO UT AND NRN AZ. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES. ELSEWHERE...00Z DULLES SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SOME INSTABILITY FROM AROUND 550 TO 400 MB WITHIN A PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE EXHIBITING SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WHERE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING IS COINCIDENT WITH SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES /PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. FINALLY...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED OVER NERN ORE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AREA. 00Z BOI SOUNDING DID INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WAS QUITE MARGINAL. THOUGH A FEW STRIKES MAY WELL CONTINUE TO PORTIONS OF THE ID PNHDL TONIGHT....OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..MEAD.. 03/01/2005 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.