[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281247
SWODY1
SPC AC 281246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
BVE 50 WNW GZH 15 NNE 0A8 35 NNE GAD 25 WSW AND 40 SSE AGS 25 NW JAX
10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY
...CONT... 60 S 7R4 25 ESE JAN 35 SSE MKL 10 W FAM 25 WNW STL 15 SE
CMI 40 WNW LUK 20 N HTS 25 NW BLF PSK 25 NW DAN 40 N AVC 30 SSW NHK
45 ESE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM
20 SSE OLM 35 SW YKM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE BKE 35 SSE MYL 35 SSW SUN 45
WNW ENV 45 SSW TVL 80 SW SFO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES...

...SERN STATES...
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
AM. STRONG MID/UPPER JET HAS ROTATED EWD TO THE S OF SRN MO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD
EWD WITH THE JET ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL AID IN
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS SERN STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW NOW IN SRN IL SWD THRU
NRN MS TO OFF GULF COAST SRN LA.  MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOW 60S HAVE SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO MORE WLY AHEAD OF FRONT.

SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS AL INTO WRN GA AS MID LEVEL COOLING
CONTINUES SPREADING EWD WITH STRONG UPPER JET.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS AL. WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NRN AL INTO
CENTRAL GA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FL PANHANDLE COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY.  AREA
OF MOST FAVORABLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SERN AL INTO
SWRN GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WITH THE VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. ANY SUPERCELL THAT FORMS WOULD ENHANCE THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH THE TORNADO POSSIBILITY.

ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK INTO NRN GA AND TOWARD SC. MODELS
DO SUGGEST HOWEVER THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG
UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS EWD WHICH COULD CONTINUE PRIMARILY A RISK OF
AT LEAST LARGE HAIL.

...PAC NW...
VIGOROUS COLD TROUGH OFF W COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WRN RIDGE POSITION.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE COLD TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT POSSIBLY
AS FAR E AS SRN ID/NRN NV.

..HALES.. 12/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM