[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231237
SWODY1
SPC AC 231235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV 15 NE ELD 15
E LLQ 30 SSW GWO 35 SE JAN 35 SE MCB 10 NNE LFT 20 E LCH 15 NNE BPT
20 SE LFK 30 N SHV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS EWD INTO WRN U.S. THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE FOR CURRENT VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN ROCKIES TO DIG RAPIDLY
SEWD. BY 12Z SATURDAY...GFS AND NAM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS INTO NRN MO WITH 80KT PLUS 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING
SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS.

...LWR MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SLY FLOW INTO TX AS NOTED ON CRP 12Z
SOUNDING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION. DEWPOINTS AOA 60F WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE TX COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING SEWD ERN MT/WY INTO UT REACHES THE SRN PLAINS.  APPEARS THAT
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS OVERDUE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 C/K. GFS EVEN
WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT PORTIONS LWR MS VALLEY WITH
APPROACH OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH
FRONTAL LIFT.

THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED STRIKES NOTED THIS AM ACROSS SRN MT THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
THE S/WV TROUGH.  THIS LOW THUNDER PROBABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WIND MAX INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANYTHING BUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT.

BUILDING RIDGE INTO PAC NW SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
FORECAST PERIOD EVEN WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM WILL ALSO LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL.  THUS
EARLIER THUNDER FORECASTED FOR PAC NW HAS BEEN DROPPED.

..HALES.. 12/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM