[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201959
SWODY1
SPC AC 201957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ONP 25 WNW EUG
45 NE 4BK 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W
VBG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH FROM GREAT
LAKES TO NRN GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM BAJA TO NW
TERRITORIES...AND UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD ROUGHLY
ALONG 130W PAST CA.  SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SE OK AND CENTRAL/E TX -- IS FCST TO
TURN EWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION TONIGHT.  ANY ASSOCIATED TSTMS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER GULF WATERS.  MARGINAL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS CA/ORE. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS IS
FCST TO REMAIN TOO STABLE AND/OR DRY FOR THUNDER.

...CENTRAL CA TO COSTAL ORE...
CONTINUING/ELONGATED FETCH OF SWLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH.  THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE...AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED
INLAND OVER ORE/NWRN CA AND WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY INLAND IN CENTRAL
CA DURING REMAINDER PERIOD.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL BE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CA...AS EVIDENT IN
BROAD MULTILEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT HAS PRODUCED BRIEF/INTERMITTENT
EPISODES OF CG LIGHTNING MAINLY OFFSHORE.  WEAKLY/CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL
TSTM OUTLOOK.

BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ALONG ORE/NWRN CA COAST
IN POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS...WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER
200 J/KG.  VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED/SHALLOW CB AND OTHER
ROBUST BUT NON-GLACIATED TOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.

..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM