From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 01:03:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 20:03:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512010102.jB1127AG006025@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010059 SWODY1 SPC AC 010057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A CP AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER-48 STATES TONIGHT AND WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MA AND CNTRL/ERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING AT CHH EXHIBITS 419 J/KG MUCAPE. BUT...GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PASSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY TONIGHT...THE COLUMN SHOULD DRY RAPIDLY AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 05:52:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 00:52:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512010550.jB15oZ3s001073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010548 SWODY1 SPC AC 010546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 40 WNW PDX 15 WNW EUG 40 NE 4BK 20 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACK 20 W PWM 25 N AUG 35 NE BGR 15 SE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ENERGETIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON THU. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL DUMBELL NEWD AROUND THE ONTARIO POLAR VORTEX...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE SEWD INTO THE PAC NW COAST AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. ...COASTAL SECTIONS OF MA/MAINE... AS THE MID-MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD AND TAKES ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THU AFTN/EVE. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP/TRACK NWWD JUST OFFSHORE MA AND INTO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z FRI. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THU EVE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SUB-MINUS 20C H5 SWING THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF RAPID LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS /STRONG PVA/ AND AN UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SPORADIC TSTM CLUSTERS FROM COASTAL MA NWD INTO DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. ...PAC NW... CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF SWRN WA AND ORE LATE THU AFTN/NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE AFTER 00Z FRI. ..RACY.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 12:39:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 07:39:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512011237.jB1Cbt67009669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011235 SWODY1 SPC AC 011233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 40 WNW PDX 15 WNW EUG 40 NE 4BK 20 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACK 30 NW BOS 25 WNW AUG 35 NE BGR 15 SE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ORE/WA COASTS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 49.5N/134.5W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PLACING COASTAL REGIONS WITHIN FAVORED UPSLOPE/ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE COOLING H7-H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHALLOW SBCAPE FROM 100 TO 150 J/KG LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. DEGREE OF CAPE AND LOW MELTING POTENTIAL SUGGEST SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL ACCELERATE NEWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN U.S. TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND/SERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NWD AND THEN NWWD ACROSS ME OVERNIGHT. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD OVER THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED PARCELS WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG SUGGESTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. ..EVANS.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 16:18:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 11:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512011616.jB1GGVRt014605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011614 SWODY1 SPC AC 011613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 40 WNW PDX 15 WNW EUG 40 NE 4BK 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACK 25 NNW BOS 25 WNW AUG 35 NE BGR 15 SE EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW SFO 25 NE SFO 40 SW MER 40 NNE PRB 30 ESE PRB 30 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND ERN STATES... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ON A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG 70 W...AND THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND INTO MAINE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NE OF THE LOW TRACK...WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG ASCENT AND MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE TRAILING THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. ...PACIFIC COAST... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 45 N AND 130 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER S...A BELT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL CA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION IN THIS BROAD BAND NEAR THE COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 19:49:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 14:49:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512011948.jB1Jm0HZ010418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011945 SWODY1 SPC AC 011944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 25 SE UIL 25 NW SLE 15 ENE OTH 50 SW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BID 30 SSE PWM 10 SE BGR 20 SSE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW SFO 40 S UKI 25 ESE UKI 50 S RBL 35 SE RBL 60 ESE RBL 45 W RNO 20 WNW TVL 45 S TVL 60 WNW BIH BIH 45 SSE BIH 45 NW NID 20 ENE BFL 15 SW BFL 30 NE SMX 35 SW PRB 60 WSW PRB 60 SSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS... LITTLE CHANGE FROM MORNING THINKING. STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL ENHANCE ONGOING FRONTAL WAVE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. ...CNTRL CA... EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WERE AIDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN THE PLUME OVER THE PACIFIC EWD TO CNTRL CA COAST. POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER ASCENT WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS PRIMARY NEAR THE COAST...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL REMAIN STRONG. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE COAST. LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS NEAR THE WA/ORE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 00:40:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 19:40:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512020038.jB20cRef016948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020036 SWODY1 SPC AC 020034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW UKI 35 NW UKI 25 NNE UKI 40 NE UKI 50 SSE RBL 55 N SAC 40 NNE SAC 25 ENE SAC 30 NE SCK 30 NNE MER 30 E MER 10 NNE FAT 25 SE FAT 30 NNW BFL 15 WSW BFL 45 SW BFL 25 NNW SBA 20 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST ESEWD THRU THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES THIS EVENING. ONE WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE ANOTHER IS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES EXTENDING ESEWD OVER THE DELMARVA REGION. SURFACE FEATURES ARE A LOW OVER NRN OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU SERN LA INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE... ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW WEST OF THE WA STATE COAST SEWD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THEN SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC. ...CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CA VALLEY... STRONG WLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY THERMAL TROUGHS THAT KEEP THIS AREA SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO NEAR 35 KT. WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND SPREADING INTO PART OF THE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 05:40:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 00:40:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512020539.jB25dFxY004752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020537 SWODY1 SPC AC 020535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL 35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MRY 25 SSW SCK 45 ENE SCK 60 ENE MER 20 SW BIH 45 NNW NID 20 SSE NID 20 SE PMD LGB 60 SSW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW INW 30 ESE PRC 40 WSW PRC 25 NNW EED 25 N LAS 40 W SGU BCE 20 NNE U17 15 ESE 4BL 20 NNE FMN 35 ESE FMN 35 WSW 4SL 10 WSW GNT 50 S GUP 35 SSW INW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MOB 35 ESE MCB 25 NNW BTR 25 E POE 30 WSW IER 10 SW SHV 25 SSE TXK 40 S HOT 10 SSE LIT 55 SSW JBR 30 SSW DYR 35 WSW BNA 25 WSW CHA 40 ENE ANB 10 NNW CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSW GZH 35 NW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU CENTRAL COASTAL CA WILL CONTINUE EWD AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES SEWD EARLY IN THE PERIOD AIDING IN BROADENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND KEEPING ZONAL TYPE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. MODELS SUPPORT SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN AREAS OF CA INTO THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. SURFACE FEATURES THAT ARE APPARENT IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SWD THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SERN CO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...WRN PAC NW COAST... SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SEWD BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-32 - -36C/. EXIT REGION OF 80 KT MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE SHALLOW TYPE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. ...CENTRAL INTO SRN PARTS OF CA AND THE VALLEYS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX NOW JUST EAST OF THE SFO BAY AREA. JET CIRRUS EXTENDS WWD TO NEAR 32N 130W WHICH WILL MOVE THRU SRN PARTS OF CA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AS THE FLOW MOVES SLOWLY SWD WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLATEAU REGION... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT K-INDICES IN THE LOW/MID 30S SUPPORTING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER SRN AREAS OF UT/SERN CO THEN MOVE SWD LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS/AL... NAM MODEL REALLY ACCENTUATES LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT FROM SERN TX INTO MIDDLE TN AFTER 03/06Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO AT 06Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WLY INDICATING A MORE DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION THAN THE NAM. THUS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA IF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS TX. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 12:54:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 07:54:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512021253.jB2Cr7q2019537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021250 SWODY1 SPC AC 021249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL 35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW P38 55 E MLF 45 SE CNY 15 WSW DRO 40 N GUP 40 N INW 55 ENE IGM 30 SSE LAS 45 E DRA 20 WNW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA/ORE... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES...BENEATH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-32 TO -34 AT 500MB/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TODAY...ENDING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AXIS OF STRONGER FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM THE LAS AREA INTO SOUTHWEST CO. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FROM EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DARK OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 16:19:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 11:19:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512021617.jB2GHSYN028827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021607 SWODY1 SPC AC 021606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL 35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WRN U.S. TODAY UNDER A FAST WLY FLOW REGIME FROM COAST TO COAST. PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NWRN WY SWWD TO OFFSHORE SCENTRAL CA COAST. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LEE OF ROCKIES...RETURN FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO UNDERWAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS TX COASTAL AREAS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL MUCH OF CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF LOW TOPPED THUNDER IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PAC NW AS LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP EVEN WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND. HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER FOR THE SRN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA. WHILE THERE IS A MOIST WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF PAC FRONT...LACK OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE RETURN GENERATES SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WEAK AND THE FORECASTED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 6C/KM PRECLUDES INTRODUCING THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 19:58:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 14:58:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512021956.jB2JucAZ020189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021954 SWODY1 SPC AC 021952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 25 NNW HQM 30 ESE AST SLE 40 SE OTH 45 ENE ACV 55 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST INTO COASTAL NRN CA... SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE ATTM ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. ...PORTIONS OF ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN... VERY LOW PROBABILITY /LESS THAN 10%/ THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO EXIST TOWARD 03/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DAY 2 PERIOD -- AFTER 03/12Z. GIVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW PRIOR TO 03/12Z...THUNDER LINE WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 20:58:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 15:58:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512022056.jB2KuaUB005854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022052 SWODY1 SPC AC 022051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 25 NNW HQM 30 ESE AST SLE 40 SE OTH 45 ENE ACV 55 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST INTO COASTAL NRN CA... SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE ATTM ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. ...PORTIONS OF ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN... VERY LOW PROBABILITY /LESS THAN 10%/ THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO EXIST TOWARD 03/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DAY 2 PERIOD -- AFTER 03/12Z. GIVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW PRIOR TO 03/12Z...THUNDER LINE WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 01:04:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 20:04:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512030102.jB312d7R022189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030100 SWODY1 SPC AC 030059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 25 NNW HQM 30 ESE AST SLE 40 SE OTH 45 ENE ACV 55 WSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE DRA 50 NW P38 MLF 4HV 45 SSW MTJ 15 SE DRO 45 SSW FMN GCN 55 SW SGU 45 NE DRA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PACIFIC COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA/ORE/EXTREME NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD UPPER TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -35C/ MOVES INLAND. 00Z SOUNDING AT MFR INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE -10 TO -20C LAYER TO PROMOTE CHARGE SEPARATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST DURING THE 03-06Z PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALONG THE COAST. ...SRN GREAT BASIN INTO FOUR-CORNERS REGION... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SERN NV AND SWRN UT WITHIN SATELLITE INDICATED MOISTURE PLUME AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES EWD TOWARD THE ROCKIES. ...NRN PARTS OF MS AND AL/ERN AR AND WRN TN... MODELS INDICATE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SERN CO REDEVELOPS EWD INTO SRN OK BY 12Z. GPS WATER VAPOR DATA SHOW RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS INCREASING NWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN LA...AND ELEVATED MOISTURE SOURCE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06-09Z ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WHERE CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED. ..WEISS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 05:36:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 00:36:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512030534.jB35YEgk005292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030531 SWODY1 SPC AC 030530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BHM 15 ENE JAN 35 NNE ESF 40 SSW ELD 30 NNW ELD PBF MKL 30 W BNA 30 NW CSV 25 SE CSV 45 ENE RMG 30 NNW ATL 20 SSE BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ORF 45 NE EWN 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 35 S LUK 20 SSE PKB 20 W MRB 40 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND REACHES THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN CO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO SRN OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AN EAST/WEST AXIS OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS THAT IS NOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO AR. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD WRN TN BY 00Z...THEN CONTINUE ENEWD TOWARD WV BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING AN ERN TN/CENTRAL MS/SOUTH CENTRAL TX LINE BY 04/12Z. ...TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CURRENT PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED FROM ERN TX INTO AR WITH 50 KT SWLY WINDS AT 1 KM AGL AT PAT. GOES SOUNDER AND GPS WATER VAPOR DATA CONFIRM THE NNEWD RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE NWRN GULF ACROSS ERN TX/WRN LA INTO SWRN AR. THE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE REGION OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER ERN TX...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE MID SOUTH REGION BY SUNRISE. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NRN PARTS OF MS AND AL. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD/NEWD ACROSS TN AND KY DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY AID STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS ERN AR AND WRN TN. BY THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INTO NRN MS/AL AND POSSIBLY SRN TN. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. WHILE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FROM PARTS OF ERN AR INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NRN MS/NRN AL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO ERN PARTS OF TN AND KY TONIGHT...MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER LA/MS AND AL. THUS... STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER WEST...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NEW LINE OF STORMS WILL BACKBUILD AT NIGHT FROM SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN MS WSWWD INTO PARTS OF SERN AR AND PSBLY NRN LA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FIELD. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ESPECIALLY IF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE LINE CAN DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 12:38:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 07:38:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512031236.jB3Cam8g018846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031235 SWODY1 SPC AC 031233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 25 SW DYR 10 WSW CKV 20 NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FROM EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TN ACROSS PARTS OF MS/LA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/LA/SOUTHERN AR...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER AR/TN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN TN/SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHERN LA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AOB 1500 J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD TEND TO SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TN/PARTS OF MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL AREA OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN TN/GA OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT. ..HART.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 16:27:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 11:27:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512031625.jB3GPUuP017874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031623 SWODY1 SPC AC 031621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 40 SW DYR 15 SSE CKV 20 NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...PORTIONS OF LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS GULF STATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX INITIALLY SRN ROCKIES. BY THIS EVENING 70-80KT 500 MB SPEED MAX WILL BE CROSSING LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET E TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT TONIGHT FROM NRN MS TO SRN APPALACHIANS. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK MOVES TO WRN TN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MS/AL INTO WRN/MID TN. WITH 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LA/MS INTO WRN AL ALONG WITH EWD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIX LAYER CURRENTLY OVER TX...MUCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THE EML WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER DARK. THE CURRENT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE WARM ADVECTION TN VALLEY AND INTO NRN GULF STATES WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON N OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING NWD TO VICINITY TN/AL/MS BORDER BY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT OF SUPERCELLS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WIND MAX CROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND VICINITY OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING SRN TN INTO NRN MS/AL AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP DOWN THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT UNDER THE VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH CORRESPONDING WIND DAMAGE THREAT NRN GULF COAST STATES. ..HALES.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 20:19:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 15:19:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512032018.jB3KI10n018256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032014 SWODY1 SPC AC 032012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 40 SW DYR 15 SSE CKV 20 NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY AND VICINITY... ...TN VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY... WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION ATTM...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. DESPITE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE -- ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 04/00Z -- AS CAPPING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR/ON S SIDE OF UPPER JET. THEREFORE...THOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS CONDITIONAL UPON WARM-SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR/SWRN MO SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY -- AND INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE FAVORING MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- WILL THEREFORE INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 04/03-09Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL...NEAR AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST IF POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS IS REALIZED. ..GOSS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 01:05:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 20:05:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512040103.jB413wk1027859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040102 SWODY1 SPC AC 040100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW PAH 10 SSW OWB 45 S SDF 60 SW LEX 55 NNW CSV 40 SE BNA 15 NNW HSV 35 ENE CBM 35 ESE GWO 25 ENE MLU 25 E ELD 35 NE PBF 35 NW DYR 10 NNW PAH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 30 ENE ATL 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 20 NW TXK 30 WNW MDH 40 N SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN KY SWWD INTO THE TN/LWR MS VLYS... ...SRN KY SWWD INTO THE LWR MS/TN VLYS... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF KMEM WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO SWRN KY...THEN SEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NERN AL AND NRN GA. RESPECTABLE PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND NERN TX. SSWLY LLJ HAS TRANSPORTED NEAR 60F DEW POINTS NWD TO THE KMEM AREA AND MLCAPES HAVE RANGED FROM 1000-2000 J/KG JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVE. BUT...THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF TX WARMED CONSIDERABLY TODAY...WITH A PLUME OF WARMER AIR EXTENDING NEWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CAP ON THE 00Z LCH/JAN SOUNDINGS. LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSE TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE TN/LWR MS VLYS THIS EVENING. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION MAY NOT OCCUR OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING AND ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE. BUT...THE THREAT REMAINS NON-ZERO VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN TN AND NWRN MS THROUGH THE EVENING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS TO FORM FROM SRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND ERN AR THROUGH MID-EVENING AND NWRN MS LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CORE SITUATED OVER THE OH VLY STRENGTHENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE THETA-E AXIS. THESE STORMS ARE APT TO BE ROOTED NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...AGAIN...IF A STORM MANAGES TO FORM CLOSE TO THE SURFACE/ALONG THE FRONT...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WRN TN OR NWRN MS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP/ BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN LA AND ERN TX LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER TO THE NE. ..RACY.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 05:56:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 00:56:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512040554.jB45sQLp015137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040552 SWODY1 SPC AC 040551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLS POE 20 ESE RMG 35 S SPA 20 NNW CAE AGS 40 WSW MCN 40 NE CEW 50 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRE 30 SE OGB 25 W MGR 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO PARTS OF SC... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CNTRL STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT SETTLES SEWD BEHIND THE LEAD WAVE WILL SLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THE DEEP S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY BY 12Z MON. ...GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO SC... NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY...TIED LARGELY TO THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS THE ASSOCIATED WSWLY LLJ WEAKENS. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE STALLING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF PEAK HEATING LEADS TO AN UNCERTAINTY ON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. MAINTENANCE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THOUGH...MAY OFFER SLIGHTLY HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAKENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THOUGH ISOLD HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING INTO THE WARM SECTOR...BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND INTENSIFY LATE SUNDAY AFTN FROM PARTS OF PIEDMONT SC WWD INTO THE DEEP S. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MODEST BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. LATER SUNDAY...AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...THE SWLY LLJ WILL ACCELERATE...MAXIMIZING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RATHER BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. ..RACY.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 12:50:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 07:50:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512041249.jB4Cn5kc008367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041246 SWODY1 SPC AC 041244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLS POE 20 ESE RMG 35 S SPA 20 NNW CAE AGS 40 WSW MCN 40 NE CEW 50 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE CHS 20 NE SSI 15 S VLD 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS/AL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST REGION AFTER DARK...CAUSING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT RATHER LIMITED. ..HART.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 16:16:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 11:16:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512041615.jB4GF1D3023137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041609 SWODY1 SPC AC 041608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLS 30 W ESF 20 N ATL 35 SW MCN 20 WSW DHN 50 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE CHS 20 NE SSI 15 S VLD 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CONUS. WEAK RIDGING LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THRU NERN U.S. AND NEXT TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTRAL ROCKIES DROPS SEWD. SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING APPALACHIANS EXTENDS WSWWD THRU NRN AL INTO CENTRAL LA TO TX COASTAL PLAIN. PORTION OF FRONT GULF STATES EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FLOW NEWD ACROSS GULF STATES IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM UPPER 60S CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS GA...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE. LATER TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW...MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS CENTRAL AL AND THEN MOVES ENEWD ACROSS GA TOWARD MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON VICINITY AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND CORRESPONDING WIND DAMAGE LATER TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 20:04:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 15:04:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512042002.jB4K2H8t005877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041959 SWODY1 SPC AC 041957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 15 E HOU 25 NNW POE 20 WNW GAD 20 ENE AHN 35 SSW AGS 20 NW MAI 50 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GLD 30 E GLD 60 N GCK 30 WSW DDC 20 E GUY 25 NE CAO 35 NNW CAO 35 S LHX 15 N LAA 25 NW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 25 NNE CRP 30 NNW UTS 30 NNW ELD 10 ESE MEM 25 S CSV 40 SE TRI 45 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CHS 35 SW SAV 20 SW VLD 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER TX COAST ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...UPPER TX COAST EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS NRN GA/CENTRAL AL/SRN MS AND INTO CENTRAL LA -- WHERE WEAK WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- INCLUDING BOTH ELEVATED STORMS N OF SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE-BASED STORMS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY -- CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SERN TX ENEWD INTO NRN GA. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED N OF FRONT SUGGESTING ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE REGION...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND S OF FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR 60 KT ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IF ORGANIZED/SMALL-SCALE LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS CAN FORM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN LA...WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT -- IS ONGOING ATTM INVOF WEAK SURFACE WAVE. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS/SRN AL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND S OF FRONT. ..GOSS.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 01:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 20:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512050102.jB512baD020814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050100 SWODY1 SPC AC 050058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE BPT 25 NNE LCH HEZ 25 NW GAD 40 S CLT 20 NNE FLO 40 S FLO 30 SW AGS 30 W MCN 40 SSW TOI 50 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 60 NNE VCT 30 NNW UTS 10 SSE PBF 35 NNE UOX 35 SW TYS 40 SE TRI 45 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CHS 40 NE VDI 20 NNE MGR 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S INTO THE PIEDMONT OF SC... ...PIEDMONT SC WWD INTO THE DEEP S... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY FRONT FROM UPSTATE NC/SC ACROSS NRN GA...CNTRL AL THEN SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL LLJ THAT WAS LARGELY TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT EXITED INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN EARLIER TODAY...HAS SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SC. THIS REGION EXPERIENCED HEATING TODAY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. FARTHER W...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WAS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN GA...CNTRL AL...CNTRL MS AND LA. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOW ECHO OVER SRN MS VCNTY A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD INTO SRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DEEP S LATER TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR A BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION TO EVOLVE/INTENSIFY FROM ERN LA ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE DEEP S SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TSTMS. WHILE THERE WILL BE A PROPENSITY FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE POST-FRONTAL GIVEN BACKING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS /I.E. SHEAR BECOMING POINTED MORE TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT/...WARM SECTOR INITIATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN 40-45 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE... TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INT0 LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE OFF THE FRONT INTO THE WARM SECTOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ..RACY.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 05:55:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 00:55:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512050553.jB55rFUu031216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050551 SWODY1 SPC AC 050549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS 30 NE DHN 40 ENE MCN 10 SSE CRE 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 35 NE SGJ 45 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DAB 45 W FMY ...CONT... 50 S LCH 45 W JAN 40 NW BHM 55 S TYS 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER GRTLKS AND OH VLY BY EARLY TUE. TAIL-END OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE SERN STATES. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DEEP S...ACROSS CNTRL GA AND INTO COASTAL SC THROUGH 00Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST EARLY TUE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO NRN/CNTRL FL WHILE WEAKENING MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. ...SERN STATES... A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS RVR NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AT 12Z MON ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-45 KT WSWLY LLJ. MOST TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WHERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK EARLY IN THE DAY FROM CNTRL/SRN AL NEWD INTO CNTRL GA AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC. WARM SECTOR EVOLUTION MON AFTN ACROSS SRN GA...COASTAL SC AND NRN FL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SRN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS EARLY AS 12Z ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS. THE FAST WSWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN SUCH STRONG FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM SRN GA INTO COASTAL SC. HERE...LOCALIZED BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND A STRONG VEERING/INCREASING WIND PROFILE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD OFFSHORE SC/NC BY MON EVE AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS THEY SINK SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL FL OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 12:59:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 07:59:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512051257.jB5CvoTi006557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051255 SWODY1 SPC AC 051253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 55 NNW PIE ...CONT... 60 SW PNS 25 ESE GZH 20 S CAE 20 SSE FLO 45 SSE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DAB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 65 SW HUM 25 NE GPT 30 N MGM 50 NW AHN 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE ACROSS GA AND SC.... LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 06Z NAM ALREADY APPEARS SLOW WITH PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT OVER AL/MS. THIS SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR MOBILE. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS SPREAD INLAND. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE DAY SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER DARK AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. ..HART.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 16:20:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 11:20:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512051619.jB5GJD7k001866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051615 SWODY1 SPC AC 051614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW PNS 20 SW DHN 20 S CAE 20 SSE FLO 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 40 SE SSI 55 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BVE 20 ENE MOB 10 S MGM 10 WSW AHN 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF ...CONT... 45 E DAB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS SRN GA AND ERN SC... S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND MAX MOVING THRU L/W TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD ALONG SC/NC BORDER THEN SWWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE. 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SERN STATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE WAVE ON FRONT LOCATED OVER GA WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEWD TODAY AND THEN OVERNIGHT DEEPEN TO OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS STRONG WIND MAX APPROACHES FROM TN VALLEY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AIR MASS INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM SUGGESTS THAT TO GET MUCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL REQUIRE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO MID/UPPER 70S. IT APPEARS COASTAL GA/SC AND ERN FL PANHANDLE COULD REACH THESE LEVELS. WITH MINIMAL CIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND HELICITIES FROM 200-300 M2/S2 AS NOTED ON TLH VAD...SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY CAN BE MAXIMIZED. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END FROM THE W THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 19:23:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 14:23:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512051921.jB5JLEFu030700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051919 SWODY1 SPC AC 051917 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AAF 35 WNW AYS 15 NNW SAV 15 SSE CRE 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 30 ESE SSI 40 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE PNS DHN CSG 20 S AND SOP 55 E ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE VRB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...SOUTHEAST... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID- LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA/CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS MINIMIZING DESTABILIZATION...AND LIKELY MITIGATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY HAS SUPPORTED AT LEAST WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. THOUGH THIS IS NOT STRONG...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO... IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH LIFT FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. AS THIS OCCURS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNTIL SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AFTER 06/06Z...A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ..KERR.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 01:01:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 20:01:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512060059.jB60xj4H018132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060057 SWODY1 SPC AC 060055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MLB 30 W SRQ ...CONT... 35 WNW PIE 20 ENE SGJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE VRB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 45 SSW CTY 35 ENE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA... ...NRN/CNTRL FL... PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN FL. VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS HAS ADVECTED SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIR EWD FROM THE NEARBY GULF WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS THROUGH MID-EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE SINKS SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD TAMPA BAY AND THE CAPE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OWING TO THE VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BUT REMAINS MODEST THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH BULK SHEAR AOA 40KTS. THOUGH BOWING SHORT LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REMAIN THE FAVORED STORM MODE...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. YET...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL FL. ..RACY.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 05:50:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 00:50:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512060548.jB65mPQZ010704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060546 SWODY1 SPC AC 060544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W APF 30 ENE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE N ATLC BASIN TUE. NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE...NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ERN TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SRN FL TUE AFTN...LEAVING MOST ALL AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN A SEASONABLY COLD/DRY AIR MASS. MEANWHILE... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD TO THE LEE OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RETURN FLOW OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX LATE TUE NIGHT AND...MORE LIKELY...WED. ...SRN FL... SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH TUE EVE ACROSS SRN FL. EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED STORMS. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ..RACY.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 12:46:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 07:46:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512061244.jB6CiPw8022056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061242 SWODY1 SPC AC 061240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW APF 40 ESE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE BROAD TROUGH SPANS THE COUNTRY TODAY...PROVIDING COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 16:35:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 11:35:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512061633.jB6GXnYM003087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061631 SWODY1 SPC AC 061630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 15 WSW ALI 30 NW NIR 50 NNW VCT 45 W HOU 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S APF 30 SE APF 30 ENE MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN TIP OF FL... SMALL AREA OF MARITIME AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER FAR SRN FL...WITH WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SWWD TO POMPANO BEACH TO JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES AT 16Z. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD AND CURRENT MOVEMENT PLACES FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA NEAR 20Z. GIVEN LOWER 70F/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND CONTINUED HEATING...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...TX COAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN... AIR MASS WILL BEGIN RECOVERING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK MUCAPE BY 12Z...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 19:06:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 14:06:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512061904.jB6J4E00013376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061902 SWODY1 SPC AC 061900 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 15 WSW ALI 30 NW NIR 50 NNW VCT 45 W HOU 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW EYW 30 SW MIA 40 E MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROADENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE...STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS NOW PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A STRONG REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION NOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES ALSO COLD/DRY/STABLE...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW. ...FLORIDA... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT NOW APPEARS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS. FORCING SEEMS WEAK AT BEST...AND...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENT. ...SOUTH TEXAS... SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF WAVE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK DESTABILIZATION COULD ALSO OCCUR ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 05:47:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 00:47:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512070545.jB75jh3a004970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070542 SWODY1 SPC AC 070541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A STABLE CP AIR MASS HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLDER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY THU AS A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE TURNS EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVOLVING UPPER LOW...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WITH A BROAD ZONE OF WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM E TX TO FL. POLAR FRONTS HAVE RECENTLY PENETRATED WELL S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN AND THE EXPECTED WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF...ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..RACY.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 12:29:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 07:29:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512071227.jB7CRK0E017030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071221 SWODY1 SPC AC 071219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO 10 SSE ALI 20 SSW VCT 35 SE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD/STABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS/EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST. THIS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TODAY. ..HART.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 16:29:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 11:29:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512071628.jB7GS2LH000873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071617 SWODY1 SPC AC 071616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO ALI 10 WSW HOU 15 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS PLAINS AS ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES SWD MARCH THRU THE SRN PLAINS REACHING THE TX GULF COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER NWRN GULF OF MEXICO THRU THE PERIOD WITH A RESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION PRIMARILY OFFSHORE TX COAST. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INLAND UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TX COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MOST OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. ..HALES.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 19:10:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 14:10:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512071908.jB7J8YHL003527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071900 SWODY1 SPC AC 071858 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO 25 S CRP 40 SE COT 45 SW BWD DAL 30 ESE PRX 35 WSW ELD 25 SW ESF 25 SSW GPT PFN 30 ENE AAF 55 ESE AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND A BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES CURVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES HAS SHIFTED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG COUPLED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET STRUCTURE EXTENDS TO THE EAST...ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW. AS THIS OCCURS ...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT QUADRANT OF JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...GULF STATES... DUE TO RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF...EMANATING FROM MODIFYING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...UNTIL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATER TONIGHT...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. NAM/NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER FOR WEAK CAPE /BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 700 MB/...AND STRUCTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY COULD INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS PRIOR TO 08/00Z...BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 00:46:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 19:46:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512080044.jB80ifHK027170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080042 SWODY1 SPC AC 080040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PSX 35 N GLS 35 SW POE 35 SSE ESF MCB 15 NNE MOB PFN 15 NNW AAF 35 SE AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CLOSED LOW ALOFT...LOCATED NORTH OF GLD...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER OVERNIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE LIGHTNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SERN TX EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHERE THE EVENING SOUNDING AT CRP AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM HOU TO FSM...WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF SOUTH OF LA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS SERN LA THAN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE THUNDER AREA. CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. ..IMY.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 05:40:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 00:40:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512080538.jB85cTPX019173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080536 SWODY1 SPC AC 080534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 40 SSW PIB 35 WNW GZH 25 NNW DHN 20 NE ABY 15 SSW VDI 35 NNE SAV 45 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUF 15 SE IND 35 W DAY 15 WSW CMH 15 NW UNI 25 NNE HTS 50 E JKL 15 SE LOZ CKV 20 ENE PAH 25 ESE MVN 25 S HUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DEEP CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEB/KS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SWD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER OH VALLEY... UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS 110+ KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM BETWEEN 3-6 KM PLUS THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE FORCING/LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...SERN STATES... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM MOVE FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP ELY BOUNDARY WINDS THAT VEER TO WLY WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE RATES/CLOUDS...SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 12:56:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 07:56:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512081254.jB8CspeX024506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081252 SWODY1 SPC AC 081251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 40 SSW PIB 35 WNW GZH 25 NNW DHN 20 NE ABY 15 SSW VDI 35 NNE SAV 45 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BWG 35 SSW LUK 30 NW CRW 35 WNW BLF 30 NNE TYS 35 ENE BNA 40 NNE BWG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...KY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN/WV THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW. DESPITE VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER FL BY THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSPORTING MORE MOIST AIR INLAND. SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..HART.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 16:47:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 11:47:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512081645.jB8GjZHf028048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081639 SWODY1 SPC AC 081638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1038 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 30 NW MSY 25 NNE ASD 15 NNW MOB 25 ESE GZH 40 W ABY 45 ENE ABY 40 NNW SAV 35 N CHS 35 E FLO 15 NW OAJ 35 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTL CONUS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WILL SURGE SOUTH AS COLD POLAR AIRMASS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING S/W. ANOTHER BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA SEPARATES COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A MOIST...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...FLORIDA... 12 UTC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL ONLY ACT TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES A WEAK SFC WAVE/LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..AFWA.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 20:16:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 15:16:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512082014.jB8KENID027304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082011 SWODY1 SPC AC 082011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0211 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPT MOB 55 NNE MOB 25 NNW GZH 25 N ABY 10 SSW VDI 25 ENE VDI 20 ESE FLO 40 SSW ECG 45 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING OVER FL/GA...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND OVERSPREAD THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS S/W TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. ..AFWA.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 00:38:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 19:38:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512090036.jB90aGtN029354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090034 SWODY1 SPC AC 090032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PFN 20 NNW AYS SAV 35 S CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITHIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. EVENING SOUNDINGS IN THE REGION SHOW POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE AND LIFT TO RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. ..IMY.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 05:08:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 00:08:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512090506.jB956TOc001013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090503 SWODY1 SPC AC 090501 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PIE 40 ESE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FL. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...THOUGH VEERING WINDS/WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...A STABLE AND DRY/DRYING AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT. ..IMY.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 12:50:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 07:50:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512091248.jB9CmWR5013735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091246 SWODY1 SPC AC 091244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PIE 40 ESE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW NOW ENTERING WRN NY SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DEEPENS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NERN SYSTEM WILL CROSS NRN PARTS OF CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH THE FL STRAITS THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL/S FL... SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C PER KM SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. ..CORFIDI.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 15:51:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 10:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512091549.jB9FnP1B008638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091546 SWODY1 SPC AC 091545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM SINKS SEWD OUT OF CO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS EWD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING INSTABILITY. ...SRN FL... SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN FL TODAY WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT. ..JEWELL/EVANS.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 19:05:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 14:05:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512091903.jB9J3Zul000649@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091901 SWODY1 SPC AC 091900 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FLORIDA... SURFACE FRONT...NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER INHIBITION IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WEAK FRONTAL/ PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS VERY LOW. ..KERR.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 00:41:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 19:41:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512100039.jBA0d6pd003536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100036 SWODY1 SPC AC 100034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE SRN FL PENINSULA...WHERE THE SRN END OF THE FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND LIGHTNING THREAT. ..IMY.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 05:23:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 00:23:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512100521.jBA5LuGH004367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100518 SWODY1 SPC AC 100517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...A DRY STABLE AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SRN FL...WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH E-W ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SRN TX THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT SINCE LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE WRN GULF...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OFFSHORE. ..IMY.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 16:30:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 11:30:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512101628.jBAGSs6m018142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101625 SWODY1 SPC AC 101623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 19:49:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 14:49:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512101947.jBAJlPdn030322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101945 SWODY1 SPC AC 101943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS APPROXIMATELY 70 ENE VRB WITH SHALLOWER CONVECTION NOTED WWD ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WHILE AN ISOLATED ONSHORE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...IT APPEARS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL EXIST TO THE E IN THE ATLANTIC WHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 00:46:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 19:46:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512110044.jBB0ietW031712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110042 SWODY1 SPC AC 110040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THOUGH HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER S FL...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- AS EVIDENT IN THE EVENING MIAMI FL AND KEY WEST FL -- WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 05:35:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 00:35:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512110533.jBB5Xsva019945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110531 SWODY1 SPC AC 110529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD SRN CA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN FL...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...A GENERALLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER/STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 12:36:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 07:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512111235.jBBCZ6Re029496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111232 SWODY1 SPC AC 111230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD DIMINISH AS ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES E AWAY FROM MOISTURE AXIS INVOF STALLED FRONT. OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...STORMS NOW WELL OFF THE FL AND NC/VA/MD COASTS SHOULD MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND EDGES EWD LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 16:37:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 11:37:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512111635.jBBGZT6G010719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111633 SWODY1 SPC AC 111631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 19:56:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 14:56:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512111954.jBBJsq5D016274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111953 SWODY1 SPC AC 111951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER OH VALLEY... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED OVER CNTRL OH WITHIN A BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH ECHO TOPS OF 10-15 KFT. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF MOST INTENSE FORCING...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE AND NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 00:13:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 19:13:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512120011.jBC0BmSi010009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120009 SWODY1 SPC AC 120008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF NOAM WHILE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE WEST. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD TOWARD SRN CA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 06:00:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 01:00:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512120558.jBC5wYVn019230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120556 SWODY1 SPC AC 120554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD...AND A SECOND TROUGH EVOLVES/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...ANY DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE CONUS AS WELL. ..GOSS.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 16:11:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 11:11:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512121609.jBCG9xD1017609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121605 SWODY1 SPC AC 121603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 05:53:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 00:53:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512130551.jBD5pI01026544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130549 SWODY1 SPC AC 130547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 6R6 65 WSW SJT 35 NNW MWL 15 SSW BVO 25 SE VIH 60 W MEM 20 NNE MLU 50 SW POE 25 NNE PSX 40 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS ERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE SECOND TROUGH DEEPENS/MOVES SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A LIMITED THUNDER THREAT ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION. ...CENTRAL AND ERN TX/ERN OK INTO SRN MO/AR/NWRN LA... THOUGH HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS TROUGH APPROACHES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. THOUGH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX TO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE BASED...OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 13:05:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 08:05:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512131303.jBDD3iLC001001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131301 SWODY1 SPC AC 131259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE COT 50 WSW JCT 20 NE MWL 30 NE BVO 25 SE VIH 60 W MEM 20 NNE MLU 50 SW POE 10 N PSX 25 NW CRP 40 SSE COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT NE PAC RIDGE. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE 4 CORNERS SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES ENE INTO SW KS THIS EVENING...AND REACHES SE MO/NRN AR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LLJ ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE PLNS HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN/SHIFT EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW PLUME OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE... APPARENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA...TO SWEEP N AND LATER NE ACROSS PARTS OF TX...THE OZARKS AND THE LWR MS VLY. ...CNTRL/E TX NEWD INTO ERN OK AND THE OZARKS... LATEST SURFACE/VWP DATA SHOW SHALLOW OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING ATTM OVER THE WRN GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE LWR TX GULF CST. THE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF TX AND WRN LA. DESPITE THE MOISTURE INFLOW...COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING ENE AHEAD OF 4 CORNERS IMPULSE LIKELY WILL KEEP REGION CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM E CNTRL/NE TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND MO AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BOTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND ALOFT WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. BAND OF MODERATE DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING E ALONG SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS OVER NE OK AND THE AR/SRN MO OZARKS. FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT WEAKER UVV IN PRESENCE OF RICHER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED TSTMS FROM E CNTRL TX INTO SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN SOME STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MUCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 16:20:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 11:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512131618.jBDGIFXE013467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131613 SWODY1 SPC AC 131612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE COT 50 WSW JCT 20 NE MWL 20 ESE CNU 30 SSW TBN 35 WSW MEM 30 S GLH 50 SW POE 10 N PSX 25 NW CRP 40 SSE COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH... SSWLY LLJ WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING INTO ERN OK/OZARKS AND CENTRAL TX... WITH EXPANDING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF ERN TX INTO NRN LA/AR/SRN MO OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED PARCELS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY BUOYANT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 70+ KT WLY FLOW AT H5 OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 20:03:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 15:03:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512132001.jBDK1ZET024272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131958 SWODY1 SPC AC 131956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CRP HDO 45 S BWD DAL 10 ESE MLC FSM 30 ESE BVX 10 SSW GLH 25 WSW POE 25 SW LCH 55 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... BROADER-SCALE TROUGH IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES REMAINS GENERALLY IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION OCCURS TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO MORE RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION IS ONGOING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED AN ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF EAST TEXAS. AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ENHANCES LIFT ALONG DEVELOPING MOIST AXIS...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER CLOUD TOPS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LIGHTNING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU...BUT THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX...SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..KERR.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 01:03:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 20:03:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512140101.jBE11d0d008158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140059 SWODY1 SPC AC 140058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM NIR 15 S HDO 40 NE JCT 25 S DAL 45 SW PRX 30 NNE GGG 35 NE LFK 40 SSE LFK NIR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LARGER/NRN ROCKIES TROUGH -- WILL MOVE EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT ACROSS TX. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ...CENTRAL AND E TX... DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS ACROSS TX MAY YIELD MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT/PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 06:06:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 01:06:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512140604.jBE64rxk015221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140602 SWODY1 SPC AC 140600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E CRP 20 N PSX 50 WSW POE ESF 35 NNE MCB MOB 50 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO COT 50 W AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 15 SE GLH 20 NNE TUP 25 SSW CHA 55 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL TX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH/LOW -- CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FEATURE -- NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE OOZ NAM -- IS EVIDENT OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA ATTM...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO TX BY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS AND A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED. ...COASTAL TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF E TX WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SE OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH EWD ADVECTION OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SMALLER-SCALE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- AIDED BY 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET -- WILL LIKELY AID IN THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD -- MAINLY INVOF THE GULF COAST. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 13:03:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 08:03:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512141301.jBED1SrG007814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141259 SWODY1 SPC AC 141258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E CRP 20 N PSX 50 WSW POE ESF 15 N PIB 30 N CEW 20 WSW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO COT 50 W AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 15 SE GLH 20 NNE TUP 25 SSW CHA 55 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT W CST RIDGE. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS EVOLUTION...NOW OVER SE MO...WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE AND WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER CO... AMPLIFIES SEWD. IN THE SRN STREAM...MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSE ENTERING FAR W TX...WELL-DEFINED IN STLT LOOPS AND FAIRLY WELL-DEPICTED IN THE GFS...SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS SRN/CNTRL TX TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST STATES TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG CSTL FRONT ALONG THE S TX CST. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM IMPULSE...AND SHOULD MOVE NE TO THE LA CST BY THIS EVENING. FROM THERE THE WAVE LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/NE TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ...CNTRL TX NE INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST... RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM CNTRL MS WSW ACROSS NRN LA INTO S CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG DEEP CONFLUENCE/UVV BAND CONNECTING MO IMPULSE WITH W TX DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS TX FEATURE CONTINUES EWD. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ALONG THIS AXIS WILL BE STRONG /40-50 KTS/...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY EMBEDDED TSTMS. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/THUNDER EXPECTED TO FORM BY MIDDAY INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE CNTRL AND NRN TX GULF CST. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS GIVEN QUALITY OF LOW THETA-E PRESENT JUST OFF THE COAST /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/. APPROACH OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...WITH 50-60 KT DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WSWLY SHEAR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM SURFACE WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VEERING...AND MAY YIELD A THREAT FOR A TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE CST NEWD INTO LA THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION AND INTO LWR MS VLY. ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND/OR SETTLE S INTO THE GULF AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT. A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...EXTEND E TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 16:35:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 11:35:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512141634.jBEGYBCA009029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141630 SWODY1 SPC AC 141629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 30 WNW VCT 45 SSW CLL 30 SW POE 45 E PIB 15 NNE MAI 45 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 30 SE COT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE TPL 30 N LFK 30 N ESF 35 SE GWO 25 SW HSV 35 E ANB 45 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... VIGOROUS SRN STREAM IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SSWLY LLJ INCREASING ATTM INTO SERN TX WILL INTENSIFY AND LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AXIS OF 50+ KT SSWLY H85 FLTHUNDERSTORMS APPEARS WARRANTED EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY LATER TONIGHT. WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS/SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..EVANS.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 19:26:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 14:26:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512141924.jBEJOeM1026918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141917 SWODY1 SPC AC 141916 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 30 WNW VCT 45 SSW CLL 30 SW POE GZH MAI 45 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 30 SE COT 20 ENE HDO AUS 30 N LFK MLU CBM BHM CSG 45 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS.... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S...A WEAK COLD SURGE IS ONGOING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRONT IS NOW PROGRESSING INTO/THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION/TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OFF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...BY LATE THIS EVENING. COLD AIR DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS ONLY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MODIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...GULF STATES... VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...WHERE WEAKENED INHIBITION AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE MID INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LIKELY WILL OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. AS SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT....MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR INTERSECTION WITH ANOTHER FRONT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODIFYING AIR MASS INLAND OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...OR REMAIN BASED ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ZERO...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ..KERR.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 00:45:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 19:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512150043.jBF0hCeB023039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150041 SWODY1 SPC AC 150039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW 7R4 35 W LFT 35 SSE ESF GZH MAI 50 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLS 35 NW HOU 15 SW LFK MLU CBM BHM CSG 50 WSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...GULF COAST... EARLY EVENING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST ONGOING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD OFF THE LA COAST INTO THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TREND IS HEIGHTENED BY THE POOR BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO WARRANT STRONG/ROBUST UPDRAFTS INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX DEPICTS MEAGER INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 100J/KG...ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED PROFILE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. WITH TIME SLOW AIRMASS MODIFICATION DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO ERN MS. UNTIL THEN...GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING SQUALL LINE ACROSS SERN LA. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT LOCALLY...HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 05:39:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 00:39:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512150537.jBF5bIEY003558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150534 SWODY1 SPC AC 150533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE PNS 35 ENE CEW 35 SSW ABY 25 ESE VLD 25 NW GNV 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BVE 30 NE MOB 30 E 0A8 ANB 10 E AHN 40 SSW CLT DAN 10 SW DCA BWI 15 NE PHL 20 SSW JFK 40 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL... ...NRN FLORIDA... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AN EXTENSION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAS FORCED WRN GULF AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S...INTO SERN LA/SRN MS FUELING ONGOING SQUALL LINE THAT IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT. CURRENT SPEED/MOTION OF THIS LINEAR MCS WILL PLACE IT OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE THIS FORCED LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES. AIRMASS OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT CONTINUES TO MODIFY EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY WEAKENING FARTHER EAST OVER THE PENINSULA...IN PART DUE TO MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL REMAIN LINEAR...AND POSSIBLY A BIT ELEVATED. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS THIS SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS NRN FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH...RETREATING WEDGE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ..DARROW.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 12:44:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 07:44:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512151242.jBFCgPkB022870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151240 SWODY1 SPC AC 151238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE PNS 20 NE CEW 25 SW ABY 25 WSW AYS 25 NW GNV 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE BVE 20 E GZH 25 NNE TOI 25 N LGC 10 E AHN 40 SSW CLT DAN 45 E CHO 35 WNW ILG 15 WNW AVP 20 WSW POU 40 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...N FL AND S GA... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED TX AND THE NWRN GULF OVER THE LAST 24 HRS SHOULD ACCELERATE NE ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC CST TODAY AS DISTURBANCE NOW ROUNDING BASE OF WI UPR LOW AMPLIFIES E/SE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS. SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF IMPULSE... NOW OVER CNTRL AL...SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE SC PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING MORE RAPIDLY NNE TO NEAR KPHL FRIDAY MORNING. ...N FL/S GA NEWD TO THE NC CST... LEAD SQUALL LINE WHICH EVOLVED FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF IS WEAKENING ATTM OVER S GA AND THE FL CSTL BEND AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OUT-RUN AXIS OF GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...HAS ALLOWED NEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO RECOVER OVER THE NERN GULF...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEARING THE KPNS AND KAQQ AREAS. AREA VWPS SHOW STRONG /40 KT/ SLY FLOW AT 1 KM. COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT WSW JET AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF N FL AND PERHAPS SW/S CNTRL GA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF SHALLOW WARM FRONT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. EMPHASIS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CSTL CAROLINAS...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AS COASTAL FRONT EDGES INLAND. CHARACTER OF STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD NOW OFF THE GA/CAROLINA CST...AND MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF STREAM...SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLUX ASSOCIATED WITH ACCELERATING SURFACE WAVE...AND INCREASING WIND FIELD/UVV ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF OH/TN VLY DISTURBANCE...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF STRONGLY-FORCED STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 16:33:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 11:33:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512151632.jBFGW8W5019438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151623 SWODY1 SPC AC 151621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 10 S MAI 35 NE MAI 20 WNW AYS 45 W JAX 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF 15 NW MAI 45 S CSG 50 SSE MCN 25 NE VDI 40 WSW SOP DAN 45 E CHO 35 WNW ILG 15 WNW AVP 20 WSW POU 40 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL INTO FAR SRN GA... ...NRN FL/SRN GA... SQUALL LINE CONSISTING OF DISCRETE CORES/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS ALONG EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SURGING EASTWARD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE MESO LOW/SURFACE WAVE IS PERSISTING ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE AND WEDGE FRONT ANCHORED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAV WWD INTO SWRN GA. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...WARM FRONT ALONG NERN EDGE OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE IS EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THE WEAK LOW CENTER TO JUST WEST OF THE FL BIG BEND REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS DEFINING A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER SURFACE THETA-E AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. VWPS AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXTREME SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KT. THEREFORE...AS LONG AS STORMS CAN ROOT INTO THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST. BIGGEST QUESTION ATTM IS HOW FAR EAST CAN THE MARITIME AIR OVERSPREAD NRN FL BEFORE NARROW WARM SECTOR GETS PINCHED-OFF BY EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. ATTM EXPECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND REGION/FAR SRN GA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OVERALL WEAKENING/DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS REMAINDER OF NERN FL/SERN GA AS STORMS BEGIN INGESTING LOWER THETA-E AIR OVER THE PENINSULA. ...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION... LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN WARRANTED FROM THE GA COAST NWD ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG BAROCLINIC AXIS NEAR COASTAL WARM FRONT NOW JUST OFFSHORE. NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR INLAND WITH ITS LOW CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN/COASTAL SC. THIS WOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. HOWEVER...SHOULD LOW DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND THEN EXTREME SHEAR AND PENETRATION OF MODIFIED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE RISK LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TRACKS NWD TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE REGION. ..EVANS.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 19:52:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 14:52:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512151950.jBFJooNc012978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151948 SWODY1 SPC AC 151946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CHS 30 ESE FAY 45 E RZZ 25 NNE ORF 50 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF ABY 20 NW MCN AHN 40 ESE SPA DAN 45 SSE CHO DCA 35 WNW ILG AVP POU 45 SSW BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FLORIDA... AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS ONGOING NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LINGERING TRAILING SHEAR AXIS STILL A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...NEAR TAMPA BY AROUND 16/00Z...THEN INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA AND THE KEYS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MORE MOIST AND WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ADVECT INLAND PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST... ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AS NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH MOST SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS RETURNING OFF THE ATLANTIC ...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR SEEMS LOW. THIS IN TURN APPEARS TO LIMIT...THOUGH IT MAY NOT PRECLUDE...SEVERE THREAT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION WITH A RISK OF WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 01:04:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 20:04:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512160102.jBG12Owm005112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160100 SWODY1 SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CHS 60 SSE CHS 20 NE CRE 15 SSE FAY 10 S RDU 30 NW AVC 50 SW DCA 30 WNW ILG 15 NNW TTN 10 WSW JFK 60 SE ISP ...CONT... 50 SSW CTY 50 E JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... 00Z SOUNDING FROM CHS SUGGESTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING WITH BACKING WINDS AND CAA NOTED THROUGH MID LEVELS. MODEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIT HOWEVER AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT PROVIDING AT LEAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION AND A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY OVER LAND DOES NOT WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME. ...FL PENINSULA... FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 00Z SOUNDING AT TBW THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SFC BASED PARCELS FORCED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT APPEAR TO BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHTNING WITHIN THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 05:52:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 00:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512160550.jBG5otau012609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160549 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MFE 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 55 NE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... SFC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER MEXICO. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS MOST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE. ...SOUTH TX... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO WITH A BROAD BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN TX WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR. THIS FEATURE WILL SHARPEN THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EAST OF BRO TO NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WRN GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN MODIFYING AND LIFTING NWD INTO THIS INCREASING ZONE OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER 06Z. ..DARROW.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 12:55:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 07:55:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512161253.jBGCrw5d005041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161251 SWODY1 SPC AC 161249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WI/UPPER MI. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD AROUND THE LOW FROM VA/PA THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM NJ ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY...AND ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY SINCE 10Z...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA. FARTHER S...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND CYCLONE/ WILL STALL ACROSS SE FL. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FAR W TX TO NW MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD TX THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY TONIGHT INVOF THE TX COAST...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR INLAND AS THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT...THOUGH MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 16:20:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 11:20:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512161618.jBGGIjs9019093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161617 SWODY1 SPC AC 161615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. TWO SMALL AREAS WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...FL... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER FAR SOUTH FL. SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THIS AREA...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ...TX COAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ..HART.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 19:44:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 14:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512161942.jBGJgn0B004949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161941 SWODY1 SPC AC 161939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A NARROW LINE OF CU/TCU EXTENDING FROM WELL OFFSHORE THE ERN SEABOARD SWWD ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 25 MILES S OF THE SRN TIP OF FL. MEANWHILE...THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WEAKER/MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER SRN FL. A STABLE AIRMASS OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE SRN TIP OF FL. ...TX COAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS W TX/NRN MEXICO. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE S TX COAST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE W TX TROUGH AND RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OFFSHORE THE S TX COAST LATER TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 00:51:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 19:51:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512170050.jBH0o973011140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170048 SWODY1 SPC AC 170046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE TX COAST AND SOUTH FL... AIRMASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STABILIZED A GREAT DEAL WITH OFFSHORE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND POOR MODIFICATION PROFILES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED NORTH INTO THE FL STRAITS OFF OF CUBA...BUT WEAK FORCING/STEERING CURRENTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT ACROSS THE KEYS OR SOUTH FL. WARM ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE BAROCLINICITY SHARPENS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM BRO SUGGEST A RATHER PRONOUNCED CAP ABOVE 700MB. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVE SHALLOW AND TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 05:45:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 00:45:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512170543.jBH5hGvO003001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170541 SWODY1 SPC AC 170539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LBX 35 N GLS 35 NNW GPT 20 NNE VLD 70 ESE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... LATE THIS EVENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH TIME EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM...DOMINANT SFC RIDGE IS MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW LATITUDE FEATURE WILL IMPEDE NWD RETURN OF MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHILE MAINTAINING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH ALLOWING A RETURN ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF FRONT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PLUME OF SUSTAINED ASCENT. ALTHOUGH PROFILES INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...IT APPEARS MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200-400J/KG WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED...HIGHLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED...AND MOSTLY LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 12:48:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 07:48:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512171246.jBHCkXUK019932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171244 SWODY1 SPC AC 171242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PBI 55 S APF ...CONT... 45 ESE CRP 20 SE VCT 25 NNW LBX ASD 20 NNW VLD 40 SE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS IS ANCHORED BY AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL L0W CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD OVER TX AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW...AND THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS ENEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK WAVE ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN BY TONIGHT OVER THE NERN GULF...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE WARMER OCEAN SURFACE/GREATER INSTABILITY. STILL... A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA IN THE REGION OF WAA/ASCENT ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 100-750 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. ..THOMPSON.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 19:47:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 14:47:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512171945.jBHJjvYo031263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171944 SWODY1 SPC AC 171942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 35 SE LCH 65 SE GPT ...CONT... 45 SW PFN 50 SE CHS ...CONT... 30 ENE MLB 35 SW APF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN STATES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF ENEWD TO NEAR TPA AND THEN NEWD TO ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF NERN FL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF. LIMITED STRIKES CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COASTS OF WRN/NERN FL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONGER FORCING AND LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ..PETERS.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 00:40:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 19:40:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512180038.jBI0cbVv020477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180036 SWODY1 SPC AC 180035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLB 40 W APF ...CONT... 45 SW PFN 15 WNW VLD 25 S SAV 50 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL/SRN GA... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE WRN ATLANTIC BY 18/12Z. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES EWD ACROSS FL...GA AND SC. CURRENTLY...MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MLB TO SRQ. HERE...A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS BEING LIFTED ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W...EXPECT CONTINUED REGENERATION OF TSTMS ACROSS THIS SAME CORRIDOR OWING TO THE PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..MEAD.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 16:42:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 11:42:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512181641.jBIGf3F2018058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181636 SWODY1 SPC AC 181634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW OTH 40 NW MFR 30 NNW MHS 30 N RBL 55 N SAC 10 E SAC 20 WSW SCK 50 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PIE 40 ESE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER WRN WA TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS EWD INTO OH/PA/WV THEN SWD INTO TN VALLEY AND TX. ...SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA... WEAK SFC WAVES/LOWS WILL MOVE ENEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY...SAGGING IT SWD INTO SRN FL TONIGHT. AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S GIVING LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS WEAKENING ACTIVITY OFF THE WRN COAST...BUT WITH SOME HEATING TODAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...SWRN OREGON INTO NWRN CA... LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS TREND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE CA COAST AROUND UKIAH IS MOVING NEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING NEWD OFF THE NWRN CA COAST. MODELS INDICATE THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL MOVE INTO CA N OF THE SFO BAY AREA INTO SWRN OREGON THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 20:09:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 15:09:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512182007.jBIK7Lfv019838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182005 SWODY1 SPC AC 182003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW OTH 40 NW MFR 20 SSE MFR 35 SE MHS 45 W RNO 50 SSW TVL 25 N MER 45 WNW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PIE 40 ESE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN CA TO SWRN ORE... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NWRN CA/SWRN ORE...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SFO AREA. BOTH OF THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WRN U.S. RIDGE. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS INLAND CENTRAL/NRN CA TO ORE HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY INLAND...WITH THE GREATEST SBCAPE VALUES /100-500 J/KG/ LOCATED ALONG COASTAL REGIONS FROM AROUND SFO-EKA. 17Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 1 KM/ INDICATIVE OF THE LACK OF DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN A COUPLE OF STORMS FROM THE AREAS AROUND SFO TO SAC WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND AREA VADS INDICATED SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT THESE SHEAR COUPLETS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SFO-SAC AREA AND NWD TO SWRN ORE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD FURTHER PRECLUDE STRONGER WINDS AND/OR STORM ROTATIONS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IF ANY POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR STRONGER SBCAPE...THEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OVER THIS REGION. THUS...HAVE ADDED LOW TORNADO AND WIND PROBABILITIES TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN CA. ...SRN FL... DESPITE LACK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN FL AT THIS TIME... INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF SURFACE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 00:40:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 19:40:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512190039.jBJ0d2KM004819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190037 SWODY1 SPC AC 190036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 4BK 25 WNW MFR 20 WSW LMT 55 SSW AAT 40 NW TVL 45 NNE FAT 30 SSE FAT 35 SW VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN ORE/CA... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA/SRN ORE COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO INTERMOUNTAIN W. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /REF. 00Z OAK SOUNDING/...AND SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INLAND TO THE NRN SIERRAS. AMBIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE DIMINISHING OWING TO THE WEAKENING LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES E OF REGION. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 05:15:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 00:15:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512190514.jBJ5E8Z1020733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190512 SWODY1 SPC AC 190510 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE W AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER S FL WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 12:58:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 07:58:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512191257.jBJCvRtY012788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191256 SWODY1 SPC AC 191254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS WITH GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED ACROSS NRN CA WITH THE ONSET OF A WAA REGIME AND MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE FL STRAITS LATER TODAY. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ONLY SHALLOW/WEAK ASCENT DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 15:47:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 10:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512191546.jBJFkEYx008179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191543 SWODY1 SPC AC 191541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A SPRAWLING COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE PAC NW. COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA WHICH WILL CONFINE WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO S FL. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPWARD MOTION IN WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES A THUNDER FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDING WRN U.S. AS DEEP LOW WELL OFFSHORE HEADS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE A STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST PAC NW... INSTABILITY UNDER BUILDING RDG EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..HALES.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 19:38:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 14:38:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512191936.jBJJavpE009741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191934 SWODY1 SPC AC 191932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLATEAU REGION INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PUSHED 60 PLUS DEGREE DEW POINTS INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. AIR MASS ACROSS THE CONUS HAS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 00:45:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 19:45:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512200044.jBK0iBKx018264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200042 SWODY1 SPC AC 200040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING S FL WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...SURFACE FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CUBA AND ANY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL STRAITS AND SWD. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 40N/138W. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 16/12Z. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 05:25:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 00:25:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512200523.jBK5NpLm011177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200521 SWODY1 SPC AC 200519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW BLI 45 NNW PDX 35 SSE SLE 45 NNE MFR 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 30 NNW PRB 55 WSW PRB 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THE W AND SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING IN THE E. WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL TEND TO FLATTEN TO SOME DEGREE AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST LIFTS NEWD AND DE-AMPLIFIES OVER WRN CANADA. ...WA/ORE COASTS SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL CA... A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL AIR /I.E. -18 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD WRN WA/ORE LATER TODAY ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE. RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA INTO THE CA CNTRL VALLEY...NWD TO THE ORE COAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 16:33:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 11:33:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512201632.jBKGWHKu014948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201630 SWODY1 SPC AC 201628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW AST 15 NW PDX 35 SSE SLE 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ORE/CA... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH STRONG TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG FRONTAL BAND OFF THE CA/ORE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AFFECTING THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CA/ORE AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY MINIMAL CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THIS REGION...LIMITING THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. ...SOUTHEAST FL COAST... NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE FL PENINSULA. FLOW IS PARALLEL TO EAST COAST...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY OFF THE MIA COAST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THUS...NO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AREA WILL BE ADDED FOR THIS REGION. ..HART.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 20:02:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 15:02:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512202000.jBKK0tlV000532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201959 SWODY1 SPC AC 201957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ONP 25 WNW EUG 45 NE 4BK 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES TO NRN GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM BAJA TO NW TERRITORIES...AND UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD ROUGHLY ALONG 130W PAST CA. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SE OK AND CENTRAL/E TX -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION TONIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER GULF WATERS. MARGINAL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS CA/ORE. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS IS FCST TO REMAIN TOO STABLE AND/OR DRY FOR THUNDER. ...CENTRAL CA TO COSTAL ORE... CONTINUING/ELONGATED FETCH OF SWLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE...AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER ORE/NWRN CA AND WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY INLAND IN CENTRAL CA DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CA...AS EVIDENT IN BROAD MULTILEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT HAS PRODUCED BRIEF/INTERMITTENT EPISODES OF CG LIGHTNING MAINLY OFFSHORE. WEAKLY/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL TSTM OUTLOOK. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ALONG ORE/NWRN CA COAST IN POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS...WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 200 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED/SHALLOW CB AND OTHER ROBUST BUT NON-GLACIATED TOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 01:50:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 20:50:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512210149.jBL1n3L4014142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210035 SWODY1 SPC AC 210033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW 4BK 15 W MFR 35 ENE MHS 45 W RNO 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SW ORE TO CNTRL CA... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VWP DATA INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA/SRN ORE COASTS. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY INVOF SAC...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSPECTION OF 00Z OAK SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ WHICH WERE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 1.5 KM AGL. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED REGION OF FORCING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH TSTM POTENTIAL DECREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 03Z OR 04Z. ..MEAD.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 05:42:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 00:42:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512210541.jBL5f5Xr021029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210539 SWODY1 SPC AC 210538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 35 NE ACV 45 E ACV 40 S MHS 30 NE RBL 45 E SAC MER 30 NNW PRB 75 WSW VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A GENERAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD OVER THE CONUS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN STATES AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST. IN THE W...NEXT IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR 40N/136W. THIS FEATURE AND SEVERAL OTHER SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN W CONUS RIDGE WITH MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WSWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...GREAT BASIN INTO NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN STATES WILL REINFORCE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SAME AREA...RESULTING IN LARGELY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ...PACIFIC NW COAST INTO CNTRL CA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OWING TO THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THE COAST OVER WA AND ORE WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER TO THE S...DESPITE WEAKER FORCING VIA DPVA...IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY. ..MEAD.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 12:54:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 07:54:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512211253.jBLCrUYw004593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211251 SWODY1 SPC AC 211250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 35 NE ACV 45 E ACV 10 SE MHS 45 NE RBL 10 WNW TVL 55 S TVL 35 WSW MER 30 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/ORE/WA AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 41 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE AND REACH THE NW CA/ORE/WA COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH/WAVE AXIS...AND THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY LOSE AMPLITUDE TONIGHT WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NARROW COASTAL STRIP W OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGES ACROSS ORE/WA. FARTHER S...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SFO TO TVL. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...AND THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS 200-300 MUCAPE BASED NEAR 800 MB. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE. ..THOMPSON.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 16:32:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 11:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512211631.jBLGV6ja022212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211628 SWODY1 SPC AC 211626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 35 NE ACV 45 E ACV 10 SE MHS 45 NE RBL 10 WNW TVL 55 S TVL 35 WSW MER 30 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OFF THE NORTHERN CA/ORE COAST THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA/DURATION. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE. ELSEWHERE...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NATION TODAY. ..HART.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 20:00:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 15:00:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512211958.jBLJwvk6013444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211956 SWODY1 SPC AC 211954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 30 NNE 4BK 35 E ACV 10 SE MHS 70 NW RNO 10 ENE TVL 55 WNW BIH FAT 40 SW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES AS LA/NWRN GULF TROUGH TURNS EWD TO CROSS MS DELTA AND ERN GULF COAST REGIONS. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OVER GULF...AND REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL RIDGING OVER GULF COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FOR THUNDER OVER LAND. FARTHER W...MEAN TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING NEWD/ENEWD TOWARD W COAST AND BC. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS IT APCHS MEAN RIDGE POSITION. PORTIONS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA/ORE...WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. ...W COAST SATES... FLARE-UP OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES PAST 1-2 HOURS IS RELATED TO MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY PASSES...EXPECT RELATIVE LULL BEFORE WAA PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING AND INLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKLY CAPPED AND WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG MOST AREAS. WITH BOTH TSTM REGIMES...TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH SIERRA NV RANGE AND INTO NV...BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND MORE STABLE INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 00:52:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 19:52:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512220050.jBM0occK009911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220048 SWODY1 SPC AC 220046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW UIL HQM 40 WSW PDX 25 ENE 4BK 25 E ACV 30 S MHS 70 SSW AAT 20 SW RNO 40 NE FAT PRB 100 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC COASTAL STATES... LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS EVENING...LIFTING NEWD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...APPROXIMATELY 170 MI WEST OF UKI AT 00Z. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN CA OVERNIGHT. EVENING SOUNDING AT VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE SHOWED WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTED BETWEEN 600 AND 300 MB. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP SWLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WERE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRAS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERING EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO BECOME TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE ORE/WA COAST OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS VEER FROM SLY TO WSWLY...STRENGTHENING THE UPSLOPE LIFT. ..IMY.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 05:02:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 00:02:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512220500.jBM50fwf023261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220458 SWODY1 SPC AC 220456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG MFR 55 SW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD... AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD OUT OF NERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WA/ORE COAST LATE TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL STEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE STRONG FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF WA/ORE...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AOB 200 J/KG LATER TODAY. THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS/UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE LIFTING...SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHTNING. ..IMY.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 12:50:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 07:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512221248.jBMCmfVB007407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221246 SWODY1 SPC AC 221245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG MFR 55 SW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE GENERAL CONFIGURATION OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH REMAINS. A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST/FL...THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED E OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST. A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX NEAR 140 W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO THE WA/NW ORE COASTS BY 00Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT ALONG AND W OF THE CASCADES AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. ..THOMPSON.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 16:25:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 11:25:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512221624.jBMGOF9A013586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221618 SWODY1 SPC AC 221616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG MFR 55 SW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INLAND INTO WA/ORE. FAST WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AID IN THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES FROM NORTHERN CA INTO WA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 19:44:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 14:44:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512221943.jBMJhPWS025828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221941 SWODY1 SPC AC 221939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BLI OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG 10 NNW MFR 10 ESE EKA 60 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG THE ORE AND WA COAST AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN APPROACHING 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL DRIFT EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 00:34:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 19:34:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512230033.jBN0XYN0015105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230031 SWODY1 SPC AC 230029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLI 35 WNW EAT 40 ENE DLS 45 S RDM 45 WNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WERE MOVING ONTO THE ORE/WA COAST THIS EVENING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STEEPENED LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL PROFILES FOR CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY NOTED IN NWRN WA WHERE THE 00Z SOUNDING AT QUILLAYUTE...WA SHOWED SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM... RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 300 J/KG. CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z-05Z. AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO ID...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD END THE THUNDER THREAT. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO BE THUNDER FREE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. ..IMY.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 12:40:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 07:40:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512231239.jBNCdVFR021857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231237 SWODY1 SPC AC 231235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV 15 NE ELD 15 E LLQ 30 SSW GWO 35 SE JAN 35 SE MCB 10 NNE LFT 20 E LCH 15 NNE BPT 20 SE LFK 30 N SHV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS EWD INTO WRN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE FOR CURRENT VIGOROUS MID LEVEL JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN ROCKIES TO DIG RAPIDLY SEWD. BY 12Z SATURDAY...GFS AND NAM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW DEVELOPS INTO NRN MO WITH 80KT PLUS 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. ...LWR MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SLY FLOW INTO TX AS NOTED ON CRP 12Z SOUNDING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. DEWPOINTS AOA 60F WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ERN MT/WY INTO UT REACHES THE SRN PLAINS. APPEARS THAT NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS OVERDUE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 C/K. GFS EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT PORTIONS LWR MS VALLEY WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH FRONTAL LIFT. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED STRIKES NOTED THIS AM ACROSS SRN MT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS LOW THUNDER PROBABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WIND MAX INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANYTHING BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT. BUILDING RIDGE INTO PAC NW SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD EVEN WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM WILL ALSO LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. THUS EARLIER THUNDER FORECASTED FOR PAC NW HAS BEEN DROPPED. ..HALES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 16:23:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 11:23:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512231622.jBNGM8hH015635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231619 SWODY1 SPC AC 231617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LCH 50 NW BPT 10 SW GGG 10 NNE DEQ 30 WNW RUE 15 SE FLP 25 SE JBR 20 WNW UOX 15 SW GWO 35 WNW HEZ 35 NW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WCOAST WILL EDGE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH THE CNTRL PLAINS/CORN BELT AND BEGIN TO CLOSE-OFF INTO A CYCLONE BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SEWD TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...ARKLATEX REGION... GPS PWAT AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE AFTN AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINED AHEAD THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS/09Z SREF AGREE THAT THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN AND WEAKLY DESTABILIZE ALOFT AS THE ENHANCED UVV SPREADS SEWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL OCCUR AFT 09Z AND PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO CNTRL/SRN AR. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...HOWEVER. ...CNTRL PLAINS... TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG DCVA SPREADING SEWD THROUGH SRN SD/NRN NEB THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM. ..RACY.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 19:55:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 14:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512231954.jBNJsgik017622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231952 SWODY1 SPC AC 231950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BPT 15 S LFK 20 SSW GGG DEQ 25 WNW RUE 25 ESE FLP 20 SE JBR 20 WNW UOX 15 SW GWO 25 E ESF 15 NNW LCH 35 NNW BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AR/E TX/LA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIG SEWD AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS NE TX...LA AND AR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S F AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND/OR JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE IN WRN AR AND IN FAR EAST TX WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS AR AND LA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO SFC HEATING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR IN WRN WA AS A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE COAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 PERCENT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 05:40:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 00:40:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512280541.jBS5fiNa028731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280539 SWODY1 SPC AC 280538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW BVE 45 SSE MEI 35 SW 0A8 35 S ANB 15 N MCN 20 ESE VDI 25 NW JAX 10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S 7R4 25 ESE JAN 35 SSE MKL 25 SE MDH BLV 20 E MTO 25 WNW LUK 20 N HTS 40 WSW BLF 20 NNW HKY 20 S ROA 25 NE LYH 20 W NHK 45 ESE ACY ...CONT... 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM 15 SSW OLM 20 S PDX 40 S EUG 35 E 4BK 45 ENE ACV 15 E RBL 50 NNE SAC 35 ESE SAC 70 SW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN LA/MS TO MUCH OF SRN AL/SRN GA/NRN FL INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ENEWD REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z THURSDAY. TROUGH ORIENTATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONGEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO THE SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM SRN IL NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE PERIOD AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES TODAY... REACHING THE CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z THU. IN THE WEST...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL AREA OF WA/ORE AND NRN CA. ...NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO NRN FL/DEEP SOUTH... SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INLAND INTRUSION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE TODAY...WITH THE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LIKELY CONFINED TO WITHIN 150-200 NM FROM THE COAST. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND WITH VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY SWD TO SERN LA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SPREAD EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS IN ADDITION TO STORM-SCALE BOWS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL AS A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2/ COMBINES WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER GREATER STABILITY TO THE EAST. ..PETERS.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 12:47:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 07:47:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512281248.jBSCmuDV010002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281247 SWODY1 SPC AC 281246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BVE 50 WNW GZH 15 NNE 0A8 35 NNE GAD 25 WSW AND 40 SSE AGS 25 NW JAX 10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY ...CONT... 60 S 7R4 25 ESE JAN 35 SSE MKL 10 W FAM 25 WNW STL 15 SE CMI 40 WNW LUK 20 N HTS 25 NW BLF PSK 25 NW DAN 40 N AVC 30 SSW NHK 45 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM 20 SSE OLM 35 SW YKM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE BKE 35 SSE MYL 35 SSW SUN 45 WNW ENV 45 SSW TVL 80 SW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AM. STRONG MID/UPPER JET HAS ROTATED EWD TO THE S OF SRN MO UPPER LOW CENTER. MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD WITH THE JET ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS SERN STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW NOW IN SRN IL SWD THRU NRN MS TO OFF GULF COAST SRN LA. MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOW 60S HAVE SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO MORE WLY AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS AL INTO WRN GA AS MID LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES SPREADING EWD WITH STRONG UPPER JET. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL. WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FL PANHANDLE COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. AREA OF MOST FAVORABLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. ANY SUPERCELL THAT FORMS WOULD ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH THE TORNADO POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AS SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK INTO NRN GA AND TOWARD SC. MODELS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS EWD WHICH COULD CONTINUE PRIMARILY A RISK OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL. ...PAC NW... VIGOROUS COLD TROUGH OFF W COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WRN RIDGE POSITION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE COLD TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS SRN ID/NRN NV. ..HALES.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 16:40:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 11:40:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512281641.jBSGfhIH009641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281639 SWODY1 SPC AC 281638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MOB 20 WNW GZH 40 N MGM 15 WSW RMG 55 NNW AHN 40 SSE AGS JAX 10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW BVE 20 SSW MEI 50 SSW CKV 20 E FAM 10 N STL 20 ESE MMO GRR 30 NNE MTC YNG 20 SSW SSU 25 NW DAN 40 N AVC 30 SSW NHK 45 ESE DOV ...CONT... 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM 20 SSE OLM 35 SW YKM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE BKE 35 SSE MYL 35 SSW SUN 45 WNW ENV 45 SSW TVL 80 SW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN IL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -20C TO -22C WHICH EXTEND WELL SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD NRN OH. COLD FRONT ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TN /MS/SOUTH CENTRAL LA INTO THE GULF WILL MOVE EWD REACHING ERN PARTS OF KY AND TN/SWRN AL BY 00Z. PRONOUNCED SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE LIMITED CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS HAS ADVANCED WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT. A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN GA INTO EAST CENTRAL AL...APPARENTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF INTO PARTS OF GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH CAPE OF 1000 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/GA AND NRN FL. ALTHOUGH FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT INITIATING OVER EXTREME SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL REGION...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SRN AL. MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-NMM SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS SERN AL/SRN GA/NWRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES INDICATE ADDED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...OH VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY... ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DIMINISHES WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE GULF COAST...12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..WEISS.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 20:06:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 15:06:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512282007.jBSK7sR9003165@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282005 SWODY1 SPC AC 282004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S PNS GZH 20 SSE SEM 25 WSW ANB 20 NE GAD 15 NNW RMG 20 E RMG 10 NE ATL 35 ESE ATL 50 SSE AHN 35 WSW AGS AGS 15 W OGB 30 SSE OGB 10 ENE SAV SSI GNV 30 WSW OCF 60 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE GPT 40 W SEM 45 NNE HSV 50 E BWG 45 SE IND 35 ESE LAF 15 SSE SBN 20 SE GRR 15 NNW FNT 45 NE MTC 40 W ERI 30 S YNG 25 ENE PKB 30 ENE CRW BLF 45 SSW PSK 25 WNW GSO 25 NNW RDU 40 S RIC 45 E ACY ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 35 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW HQM 40 NNW SLE 45 S EUG 25 ENE 4BK 25 NNE ACV 35 SSE EKA 55 WSW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... ...SOUTHEAST... WIDESPREAD VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ERUPT ACROSS ERN/SERN AL AND SRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE REST OF SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN SC AFTER DARK. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HAS SPURRED RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL AL SEWD ACROSS SWRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM MIDDLE TN TO MOBILE BAY. LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG FROM THE WRN FL PNHDL INLAND ACROSS ERN AL AND SWRN GA. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY WAS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DYNAMICS AND INCREASINGLY INTENSE WLY SHEAR THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. MESOSCALE ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER AIDED ALONG WEDGE-LIKE THERMAL BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SC/SRN NC. CELLS TRACKING NEAR OR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG A CSG-AGS-CAE LINE... COULD POSE A GREATER THREAT OF LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES AND A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. OTHER SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS GIVEN RELATIVELY RAPID CELL MOTION OF 30-40KT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP EAST INTO PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND WRN SC INTO THE EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS CURRENTLY WARM BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE. DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE MCS MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND FORCING...A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNDOWN. ...APPALACHIANS... NARROW WARM SECTOR HAS DEVELOPED NWD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. STORMS WITHIN PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THIS WARMER AIR WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING OUTRUNS THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. UNTIL THIS TIME...A FEW MORE LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 00:55:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 19:55:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512290056.jBT0ueJh009670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290054 SWODY1 SPC AC 290053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AAF TLH 35 NNE DHN 30 SSW CSG 35 NNE MCN 20 NNW AGS 20 W CAE 35 ENE CAE 35 SSW FLO 15 NE SAV 10 W SSI GNV 30 WSW OCF 60 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AAF 20 W TLH TOI 30 SSW HTS 25 N ZZV 45 W ERI 15 WNW ERI 15 SE ERI 20 NNE MGW 15 ESE EKN 35 S CHO RIC 25 NNE SBY 45 SE NEL ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 35 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW OTH 40 E OTH 50 ESE MHS 70 NW BIH 20 ENE MER 80 WSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE OWY 30 SE BOI 35 SSE MYL 60 SW SMN 35 E SUN 25 SSE BYI 20 W ENV 40 SE EKO 20 WSW EKO 15 ENE OWY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...SOUTHEAST... BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM SC SWWD INTO SRN GA CONTINUES WITHIN AREA OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOCATED BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. BEST THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC COMBINATION FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN GA. STRONG FORCING WILL SPREAD STORMS E/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A REGION WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORM UPDRAFT ROOTS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...SO THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN APPALACHIANS... STRONG CONVERGENCE/FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS NRN GA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ...NERN NV/SRN ID... LINE OF CONVECTION...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...MAY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ...SWRN ORE/NRN CA... COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA AND NEAR THE COAST...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 05:06:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 00:06:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512290508.jBT58JSv018612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290506 SWODY1 SPC AC 290504 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRE 40 WSW ECG 20 NNE SBY 20 NNE NEL 15 WNW BDL 15 SE CON 20 NE PWM 30 SSW BGR 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BE EJECTED NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN OVER PA...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR DELMARVA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TODAY AND ALONG THE ME COAST TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM IA SSWWD INTO NWRN AR AND NRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...EAST COAST... THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR ERN NC AND SERN VA. ANY STORMS THAT DO PERSIST AT 12Z SHOULD END QUICKLY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND NEWD ALONG THE ME COAST... INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW...WILL RESULT IN STRONG LIFTING OVER WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. THE LIFTING OF A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE GULF STREAM OVER THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE DEPTH FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING TO OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL END AS SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH A GIVEN AREA..ENDING WARM ADVECTION/LIFT. ...ROCKIES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING ACROSS ID ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN ERN WY/NRN CO AT 12Z AND IN ERN NEB BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO REAL INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MASS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN NO MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...PACIFIC NW... PCPN MINIMUM IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL NOT MOVE ONSHORE UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD...SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 12:33:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 07:33:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512291234.jBTCYmHc002558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291232 SWODY1 SPC AC 291231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ISP 30 WNW PVD 20 S CON 20 WNW PWM 30 SSW BGR 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG TROUGH MOVES OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING DELMARVA AREA DEEPENS NEWD TO OVER GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z FRI. CURRENTLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND WARM ADVECTION FUELING THUNDERSTORM AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...MOSTLY OVER WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENTLY BAND OF CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT NWRN CO. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW STRIKES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AVAILABLE. ..HALES.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 16:05:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 11:05:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512291606.jBTG6eh4025323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291604 SWODY1 SPC AC 291602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JFK 10 W ORH CON 25 NW PWM 25 ENE AUG 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN NEW ENGLAND INTO COASTAL ME... UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS. COASTAL SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST OFF NJ...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN MA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT CHH AND GYX EXHIBIT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 100 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER COASTAL ME THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION MAINTAIN A LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY BAND OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS BEEN OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND... SPREADING NWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF ME BY THIS EVENING. ..WEISS.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 19:55:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 14:55:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512291957.jBTJvJV3032043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291955 SWODY1 SPC AC 291953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JFK 10 W ORH CON 25 NW PWM 25 ENE AUG 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LONG ISLAND INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN AND WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MID-AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AROUND THE LOW. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED VCNTY LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. INITIAL WARM CONVEYOR INDUCED BAND OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN MA COASTAL WATERS AT MID-AFTN AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND EVENTUALLY DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD...THIS NEW CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN REMAINS WEAKLY BUOYANT ALOFT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...ISOLD TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS PARCELS ARE LOFTED TO A LEVEL WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AOB MINUS 20C /ICE DEVELOPMENT/. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND AND PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 00:36:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 19:36:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512300038.jBU0cRSc003892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300036 SWODY1 SPC AC 300034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN PA...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND...WERE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE DEPTH BETWEEN THE LFC AND EL SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING. IN THE PACIFIC NW...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO TO PRELUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS NEB AND SD. ..IMY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 05:56:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 00:56:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512300558.jBU5wNvO009395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300556 SWODY1 SPC AC 300554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MCB 40 NNW HEZ 30 SSE LLQ 60 NNE GLH 35 E MEM 45 E MKL 40 SSW BNA 30 WNW CHA 20 NE RMG 30 NNW LGC 25 W AUO 40 ENE PIB 20 NNE MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE BLI EAT 25 W LKV RBL 70 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN 80 KT JET MAX...DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SEWD INTO THE AR/TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIFT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...MS/AL AREA... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WERE LOCATED IN FAR SRN TX THURSDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MS...WITH MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN HALF. ALTHOUGH 30 M HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MS...THE LARGER HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LOCATED FROM NRN MS NWD INTO TN AND KY. IF STORMS DEVELOP... FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THE QUESTION ATTM IS IF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED AS CENTRAL/SRN MS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE JET AXIS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN MS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND FORCING ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA BETWEEN JAN AND TUP WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/FORCING IS FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BETWEEN 21-01Z. SINCE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXISTS AT THIS TIME...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST. IF THE THREAT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT LATER IN THE DAY...AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE NEEDED. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN MS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO AL THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN...AS MAIN FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS. ...PACIFIC NW... AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESULTS IN COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..IMY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 12:28:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 07:28:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512301230.jBUCUOl1008234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301228 SWODY1 SPC AC 301226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S JAN 35 N HEZ 35 S LLQ 40 NE PBF JBR 25 NW DYR 50 NE MKL 45 SSE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 40 S JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BLI 60 N MFR 20 WNW RBL 25 WSW SAC 50 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NRN MS... MID LEVEL VORT MAX NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD WITH AXIS OF 70-80 KT H5 WINDS FORECAST ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SURFACE REMAINS COOL/DRY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THIS REGION... INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /NOW OVER THE NWRN GOM/ NEWD ACROSS LA WITH 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO W-CENTRAL MS BY THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND SHOULD SUPPORT MOIST CONVECTION INTO A REGION OF VERY WEAK/MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ATTM TO REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS REGION. A MORE LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG NERN EDGE OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE BEING WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF DEEP ASCENT...NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ALL DEVELOP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SSWWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MS AFTER 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...PRONOUNCED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL AS MUCAPE APPROACHES 500 J/KG. ...PAC NW... EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PERSIST INTO NRN CA AND WRN ORE/WA TODAY. AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE NRN CA/ORE COAST...RESULTANT INCREASE IN UVV AND COOLING H7-H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ..EVANS.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 16:35:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 11:35:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512301636.jBUGadvM008456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301633 SWODY1 SPC AC 301631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCB 30 SW ESF 25 NE IER 20 ESE LLQ JBR 25 NW DYR 50 NE MKL 45 SSE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 25 WSW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BLI 60 N MFR 20 WNW RBL 25 WSW SAC 50 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN OK TO IA WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF THE IA/MN BORDER WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI BY TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION. FARTHER W...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC COAST AS A BROAD TROUGH AND SERIES OF MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA APPROACH FROM THE ERN PAC. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WA/ORE/NW CA COASTS LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 43 N AND 132 W MOVES INLAND. ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER LA/MS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING NEAR OR E OF THE MS RIVER AND STREAK EWD TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 850 MB MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 19:43:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 14:43:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512301945.jBUJj7OK029554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301943 SWODY1 SPC AC 301941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 25 E AST 35 SW MFR 45 N UKI 60 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCB 30 SW ESF 25 NE IER 20 ESE LLQ JBR 25 NE POF 30 NE FAM 20 E SLO 15 SSW EVV 50 SE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 25 WSW MCB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR MS/TN VLYS... GPS PWAT/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH LA INTO THE MID-MS VLY WITH NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CNTRL LA AND NEAR 50F AS FAR N AS NWRN MS/ECNTRL AR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM IA-ERN OK WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ATOP THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE COLUMN HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR ELEVATED TSTM INITIATION OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL AT EARLY AFTN. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VLYS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE TN VLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/E OF THE MS /POSSIBLY S FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY/ AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS/AL AND TN OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KTS AND WEAK MUCAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL. IF A TSTM CAN FORM ALONG THE FRONT FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL MS/LA THIS EVENING...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS UPDRAFTS THIS FAR S COULD BE ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. ..RACY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 00:49:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 19:49:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512310051.jBV0p79c006499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310048 SWODY1 SPC AC 310047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N UIL 30 NNW PDX 10 NNE MFR 45 N UKI 60 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOB 35 SSW JAN 30 NW JAN 15 E TUP 20 SE BNA 45 ENE BWG 60 SSW LEX 35 W LOZ 40 SSW LOZ 40 ESE CHA LGC 25 NNW GZH 50 NNW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR MS/TN AND OH VLYS... STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MS VALLEY REGION...WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS TN/KY THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED IN SRN MN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS NERN IA/IL WRN TN AND KY/MS AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH NEARBY EVENING SOUNDINGS DID NOT SAMPLE THE REPRESENTATIVE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT IN THE KY/TN AREA...RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD...THE THUNDER SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S HAD ADVECTED INTO MS...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB. DESPITE STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS...SO LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAVE BEEN DROPPED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO AL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE THUNDER SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ..IMY.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 16:33:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 11:33:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512311634.jBVGYroN029160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311629 SWODY1 SPC AC 311628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W SCK 30 E UKI 35 WNW RBL 35 SSE MHS 35 E RBL 55 NE MER 30 E MER 20 SSW MER 30 ESE SJC 30 W SCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 20 NW MSY MOB CEW 20 SSE MAI 50 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BLI OLM 30 NW MFR 35 S MFR 45 W AAT 40 ESE AAT OWY 65 WSW MLD 15 ENE OGD 45 NW PUC 35 SE U24 15 ENE NID 40 SE BFL 25 SW SBA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.... ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER NW CA. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN CA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING W OF THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRECIPITATION BAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION...WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING INLAND RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPECT CHANNELED SLY/SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BENEATH 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-UPPER JET. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY INTO MID AFTERNOON IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND THEN THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST EARLY SUNDAY... RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH BUOYS SHOWING NEAR 70 F DEW POINTS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WAA TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NE MEXICO. THOUGH TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL DAY 2...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z IN THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY MSY TO TLH. ..THOMPSON.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 20:03:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 15:03:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512312005.jBVK5XjO013240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312003 SWODY1 SPC AC 312002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MER 40 E SCK 60 NNE MER 40 NE FAT 40 NE BFL BFL 20 NE PRB 25 S MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 20 NW MSY MOB CEW 20 SSE MAI 50 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N UIL 35 SSW OLM 25 W MFR 35 SSE MFR 35 SSE LMT 45 ENE LKV 15 N OWY 50 S BYI OGD 55 SSE SLC 50 SSW ELY 15 WNW PMD 15 NE SBA 25 SW VBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA... ...NRN/CNTRL CA... COMPACT AND VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A FAST MOVING SOLID LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER...TRAILING PORTION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE BASED ON LATEST HNX VWP DATA. GIVEN LINEAR STRUCTURE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF FRESNO COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LEADING LINE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WHILE A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 01:03:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 20:03:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512010102.jB1127AG006025@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010059 SWODY1 SPC AC 010057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A CP AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER-48 STATES TONIGHT AND WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND. A WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MA AND CNTRL/ERN MAINE EARLY TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING AT CHH EXHIBITS 419 J/KG MUCAPE. BUT...GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE PASSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY TONIGHT...THE COLUMN SHOULD DRY RAPIDLY AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 05:52:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 00:52:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512010550.jB15oZ3s001073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010548 SWODY1 SPC AC 010546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST WED NOV 30 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 40 WNW PDX 15 WNW EUG 40 NE 4BK 20 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACK 20 W PWM 25 N AUG 35 NE BGR 15 SE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ENERGETIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON THU. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL DUMBELL NEWD AROUND THE ONTARIO POLAR VORTEX...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI. THE POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE SEWD INTO THE PAC NW COAST AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. ...COASTAL SECTIONS OF MA/MAINE... AS THE MID-MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD AND TAKES ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THU AFTN/EVE. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP/TRACK NWWD JUST OFFSHORE MA AND INTO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z FRI. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THU EVE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SUB-MINUS 20C H5 SWING THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF RAPID LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS /STRONG PVA/ AND AN UNSTABLE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SPORADIC TSTM CLUSTERS FROM COASTAL MA NWD INTO DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. ...PAC NW... CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF SWRN WA AND ORE LATE THU AFTN/NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE AFTER 00Z FRI. ..RACY.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 12:39:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 07:39:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512011237.jB1Cbt67009669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011235 SWODY1 SPC AC 011233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 40 WNW PDX 15 WNW EUG 40 NE 4BK 20 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACK 30 NW BOS 25 WNW AUG 35 NE BGR 15 SE EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ORE/WA COASTS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 49.5N/134.5W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PLACING COASTAL REGIONS WITHIN FAVORED UPSLOPE/ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA INDICATE COOLING H7-H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHALLOW SBCAPE FROM 100 TO 150 J/KG LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. DEGREE OF CAPE AND LOW MELTING POTENTIAL SUGGEST SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES. ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL ACCELERATE NEWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN U.S. TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND/SERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE EARLY EVENING...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NWD AND THEN NWWD ACROSS ME OVERNIGHT. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD OVER THIS REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED PARCELS WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG SUGGESTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. ..EVANS.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 16:18:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 11:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512011616.jB1GGVRt014605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011614 SWODY1 SPC AC 011613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 40 WNW PDX 15 WNW EUG 40 NE 4BK 35 SW CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACK 25 NNW BOS 25 WNW AUG 35 NE BGR 15 SE EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW SFO 25 NE SFO 40 SW MER 40 NNE PRB 30 ESE PRB 30 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND ERN STATES... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ON A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG 70 W...AND THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND INTO MAINE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NE OF THE LOW TRACK...WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG ASCENT AND MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE FRONTAL SURGE TRAILING THE OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. ...PACIFIC COAST... A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 45 N AND 130 W WILL MOVE INLAND OVER WA/ORE LATER TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER S...A BELT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL CA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION IN THIS BROAD BAND NEAR THE COAST. ..THOMPSON.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 1 19:49:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 14:49:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512011948.jB1Jm0HZ010418@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011945 SWODY1 SPC AC 011944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 25 SE UIL 25 NW SLE 15 ENE OTH 50 SW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BID 30 SSE PWM 10 SE BGR 20 SSE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW SFO 40 S UKI 25 ESE UKI 50 S RBL 35 SE RBL 60 ESE RBL 45 W RNO 20 WNW TVL 45 S TVL 60 WNW BIH BIH 45 SSE BIH 45 NW NID 20 ENE BFL 15 SW BFL 30 NE SMX 35 SW PRB 60 WSW PRB 60 SSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS... LITTLE CHANGE FROM MORNING THINKING. STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL ENHANCE ONGOING FRONTAL WAVE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE COAST OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. ...CNTRL CA... EXTENSIVE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WERE AIDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN THE PLUME OVER THE PACIFIC EWD TO CNTRL CA COAST. POCKETS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER ASCENT WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS PRIMARY NEAR THE COAST...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE INLAND TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL REMAIN STRONG. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE COAST. LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS NEAR THE WA/ORE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 12/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 00:40:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 01 Dec 2005 19:40:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512020038.jB20cRef016948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020036 SWODY1 SPC AC 020034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW UKI 35 NW UKI 25 NNE UKI 40 NE UKI 50 SSE RBL 55 N SAC 40 NNE SAC 25 ENE SAC 30 NE SCK 30 NNE MER 30 E MER 10 NNE FAT 25 SE FAT 30 NNW BFL 15 WSW BFL 45 SW BFL 25 NNW SBA 20 S VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDS FROM OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST ESEWD THRU THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES THIS EVENING. ONE WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE ANOTHER IS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES EXTENDING ESEWD OVER THE DELMARVA REGION. SURFACE FEATURES ARE A LOW OVER NRN OHIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU SERN LA INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE... ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW WEST OF THE WA STATE COAST SEWD ALONG THE OREGON COAST THEN SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC. ...CENTRAL CA COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CA VALLEY... STRONG WLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY THERMAL TROUGHS THAT KEEP THIS AREA SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 KT ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO NEAR 35 KT. WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND SPREADING INTO PART OF THE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 05:40:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 00:40:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512020539.jB25dFxY004752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020537 SWODY1 SPC AC 020535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL 35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MRY 25 SSW SCK 45 ENE SCK 60 ENE MER 20 SW BIH 45 NNW NID 20 SSE NID 20 SE PMD LGB 60 SSW LGB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW INW 30 ESE PRC 40 WSW PRC 25 NNW EED 25 N LAS 40 W SGU BCE 20 NNE U17 15 ESE 4BL 20 NNE FMN 35 ESE FMN 35 WSW 4SL 10 WSW GNT 50 S GUP 35 SSW INW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MOB 35 ESE MCB 25 NNW BTR 25 E POE 30 WSW IER 10 SW SHV 25 SSE TXK 40 S HOT 10 SSE LIT 55 SSW JBR 30 SSW DYR 35 WSW BNA 25 WSW CHA 40 ENE ANB 10 NNW CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSW GZH 35 NW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU CENTRAL COASTAL CA WILL CONTINUE EWD AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES SEWD EARLY IN THE PERIOD AIDING IN BROADENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND KEEPING ZONAL TYPE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. MODELS SUPPORT SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN AREAS OF CA INTO THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. SURFACE FEATURES THAT ARE APPARENT IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SWD THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SERN CO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...WRN PAC NW COAST... SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SEWD BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-32 - -36C/. EXIT REGION OF 80 KT MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE SHALLOW TYPE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. ...CENTRAL INTO SRN PARTS OF CA AND THE VALLEYS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX NOW JUST EAST OF THE SFO BAY AREA. JET CIRRUS EXTENDS WWD TO NEAR 32N 130W WHICH WILL MOVE THRU SRN PARTS OF CA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AS THE FLOW MOVES SLOWLY SWD WITH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLATEAU REGION... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT K-INDICES IN THE LOW/MID 30S SUPPORTING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER SRN AREAS OF UT/SERN CO THEN MOVE SWD LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS/AL... NAM MODEL REALLY ACCENTUATES LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT FROM SERN TX INTO MIDDLE TN AFTER 03/06Z. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO AT 06Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WLY INDICATING A MORE DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION THAN THE NAM. THUS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA IF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS TX. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 12:54:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 07:54:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512021253.jB2Cr7q2019537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021250 SWODY1 SPC AC 021249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL 35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW P38 55 E MLF 45 SE CNY 15 WSW DRO 40 N GUP 40 N INW 55 ENE IGM 30 SSE LAS 45 E DRA 20 WNW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WA/ORE... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING INLAND ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA...WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES...BENEATH VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-32 TO -34 AT 500MB/. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TODAY...ENDING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. ...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL CA WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN AXIS OF STRONGER FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM THE LAS AREA INTO SOUTHWEST CO. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FROM EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DARK OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..HART.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 16:19:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 11:19:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512021617.jB2GHSYN028827@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021607 SWODY1 SPC AC 021606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL 35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WRN U.S. TODAY UNDER A FAST WLY FLOW REGIME FROM COAST TO COAST. PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NWRN WY SWWD TO OFFSHORE SCENTRAL CA COAST. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LEE OF ROCKIES...RETURN FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO UNDERWAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS TX COASTAL AREAS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL MUCH OF CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF LOW TOPPED THUNDER IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PAC NW AS LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP EVEN WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND. HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER FOR THE SRN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA. WHILE THERE IS A MOIST WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF PAC FRONT...LACK OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE RETURN GENERATES SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WEAK AND THE FORECASTED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 6C/KM PRECLUDES INTRODUCING THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 19:58:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 14:58:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512021956.jB2JucAZ020189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021954 SWODY1 SPC AC 021952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 25 NNW HQM 30 ESE AST SLE 40 SE OTH 45 ENE ACV 55 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST INTO COASTAL NRN CA... SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE ATTM ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. ...PORTIONS OF ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN... VERY LOW PROBABILITY /LESS THAN 10%/ THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO EXIST TOWARD 03/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DAY 2 PERIOD -- AFTER 03/12Z. GIVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW PRIOR TO 03/12Z...THUNDER LINE WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 2 20:58:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 15:58:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512022056.jB2KuaUB005854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022052 SWODY1 SPC AC 022051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 25 NNW HQM 30 ESE AST SLE 40 SE OTH 45 ENE ACV 55 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PAC NW COAST INTO COASTAL NRN CA... SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE ATTM ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. ...PORTIONS OF ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN... VERY LOW PROBABILITY /LESS THAN 10%/ THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO EXIST TOWARD 03/12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DAY 2 PERIOD -- AFTER 03/12Z. GIVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW PRIOR TO 03/12Z...THUNDER LINE WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 12/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 01:04:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 20:04:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512030102.jB312d7R022189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030100 SWODY1 SPC AC 030059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 25 NNW HQM 30 ESE AST SLE 40 SE OTH 45 ENE ACV 55 WSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE DRA 50 NW P38 MLF 4HV 45 SSW MTJ 15 SE DRO 45 SSW FMN GCN 55 SW SGU 45 NE DRA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PACIFIC COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF WA/ORE/EXTREME NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD UPPER TROUGH /500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -35C/ MOVES INLAND. 00Z SOUNDING AT MFR INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE -10 TO -20C LAYER TO PROMOTE CHARGE SEPARATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST DURING THE 03-06Z PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALONG THE COAST. ...SRN GREAT BASIN INTO FOUR-CORNERS REGION... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SERN NV AND SWRN UT WITHIN SATELLITE INDICATED MOISTURE PLUME AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES EWD TOWARD THE ROCKIES. ...NRN PARTS OF MS AND AL/ERN AR AND WRN TN... MODELS INDICATE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SERN CO REDEVELOPS EWD INTO SRN OK BY 12Z. GPS WATER VAPOR DATA SHOW RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS INCREASING NWD ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN LA...AND ELEVATED MOISTURE SOURCE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06-09Z ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WHERE CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED. ..WEISS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 05:36:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 00:36:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512030534.jB35YEgk005292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030531 SWODY1 SPC AC 030530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BHM 15 ENE JAN 35 NNE ESF 40 SSW ELD 30 NNW ELD PBF MKL 30 W BNA 30 NW CSV 25 SE CSV 45 ENE RMG 30 NNW ATL 20 SSE BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E ORF 45 NE EWN 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 35 S LUK 20 SSE PKB 20 W MRB 40 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND REACHES THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN CO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO SRN OK EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AN EAST/WEST AXIS OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS THAT IS NOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO AR. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD WRN TN BY 00Z...THEN CONTINUE ENEWD TOWARD WV BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING AN ERN TN/CENTRAL MS/SOUTH CENTRAL TX LINE BY 04/12Z. ...TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CURRENT PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED FROM ERN TX INTO AR WITH 50 KT SWLY WINDS AT 1 KM AGL AT PAT. GOES SOUNDER AND GPS WATER VAPOR DATA CONFIRM THE NNEWD RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM THE NWRN GULF ACROSS ERN TX/WRN LA INTO SWRN AR. THE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FIELD EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE REGION OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER ERN TX...CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARD THE MID SOUTH REGION BY SUNRISE. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NRN PARTS OF MS AND AL. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD/NEWD ACROSS TN AND KY DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY AID STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS ERN AR AND WRN TN. BY THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INTO NRN MS/AL AND POSSIBLY SRN TN. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. WHILE THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FROM PARTS OF ERN AR INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NRN MS/NRN AL BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO ERN PARTS OF TN AND KY TONIGHT...MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER LA/MS AND AL. THUS... STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER WEST...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NEW LINE OF STORMS WILL BACKBUILD AT NIGHT FROM SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN MS WSWWD INTO PARTS OF SERN AR AND PSBLY NRN LA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FIELD. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ESPECIALLY IF BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A COMPONENT NORMAL TO THE LINE CAN DEVELOP. ..WEISS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 12:38:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 07:38:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512031236.jB3Cam8g018846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031235 SWODY1 SPC AC 031233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 25 SW DYR 10 WSW CKV 20 NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FROM EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TN ACROSS PARTS OF MS/LA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/LA/SOUTHERN AR...HELPING TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER AR/TN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN TN/SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHERN LA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AOB 1500 J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD TEND TO SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TN/PARTS OF MS/NORTHERN AL/NORTHWEST GA. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL AREA OF GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS EASTERN TN/GA OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT. ..HART.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 16:27:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 11:27:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512031625.jB3GPUuP017874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031623 SWODY1 SPC AC 031621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 40 SW DYR 15 SSE CKV 20 NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...PORTIONS OF LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS GULF STATES THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX INITIALLY SRN ROCKIES. BY THIS EVENING 70-80KT 500 MB SPEED MAX WILL BE CROSSING LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET E TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT TONIGHT FROM NRN MS TO SRN APPALACHIANS. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK MOVES TO WRN TN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN MS/AL INTO WRN/MID TN. WITH 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS LA/MS INTO WRN AL ALONG WITH EWD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIX LAYER CURRENTLY OVER TX...MUCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW THE EML WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER DARK. THE CURRENT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE WARM ADVECTION TN VALLEY AND INTO NRN GULF STATES WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON N OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING NWD TO VICINITY TN/AL/MS BORDER BY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT OF SUPERCELLS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WIND MAX CROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND VICINITY OF WARM FRONT THIS EVENING SRN TN INTO NRN MS/AL AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP DOWN THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT UNDER THE VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH CORRESPONDING WIND DAMAGE THREAT NRN GULF COAST STATES. ..HALES.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 3 20:19:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 15:19:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512032018.jB3KI10n018256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032014 SWODY1 SPC AC 032012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BHM 35 NNE MEI 35 N HEZ 30 NW MLU 20 SE PBF 40 SW DYR 15 SSE CKV 20 NNW CSV 25 SE CSV 25 ESE CHA 15 WSW RMG 20 E BHM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 15 SSW AGS 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 10 NNW TXK 30 NNE DYR 20 SW SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY AND VICINITY... ...TN VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY... WEAK/ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION ATTM...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. DESPITE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE -- ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 04/00Z -- AS CAPPING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR/ON S SIDE OF UPPER JET. THEREFORE...THOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...ANY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS CONDITIONAL UPON WARM-SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR/SWRN MO SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY -- AND INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE FAVORING MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- WILL THEREFORE INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 04/03-09Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SRN TN/NRN MS/NRN AL...NEAR AND JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST IF POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS IS REALIZED. ..GOSS.. 12/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 01:05:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Dec 2005 20:05:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512040103.jB413wk1027859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040102 SWODY1 SPC AC 040100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW PAH 10 SSW OWB 45 S SDF 60 SW LEX 55 NNW CSV 40 SE BNA 15 NNW HSV 35 ENE CBM 35 ESE GWO 25 ENE MLU 25 E ELD 35 NE PBF 35 NW DYR 10 NNW PAH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW AVC 20 ENE GSB 20 ESE FLO 30 ENE ATL 45 SE ESF 10 S HOU 55 NNE VCT 35 E AUS 25 E TPL 20 NW TXK 30 WNW MDH 40 N SDF 10 NNW CRW 30 NNW AVC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS SRN KY SWWD INTO THE TN/LWR MS VLYS... ...SRN KY SWWD INTO THE LWR MS/TN VLYS... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1004MB SURFACE LOW JUST W OF KMEM WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E INTO SWRN KY...THEN SEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NERN AL AND NRN GA. RESPECTABLE PRESSURE RISES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ACROSS CNTRL AR AND NERN TX. SSWLY LLJ HAS TRANSPORTED NEAR 60F DEW POINTS NWD TO THE KMEM AREA AND MLCAPES HAVE RANGED FROM 1000-2000 J/KG JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVE. BUT...THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF TX WARMED CONSIDERABLY TODAY...WITH A PLUME OF WARMER AIR EXTENDING NEWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CAP ON THE 00Z LCH/JAN SOUNDINGS. LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER IMPULSE TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS ATTM IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE TN/LWR MS VLYS THIS EVENING. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION MAY NOT OCCUR OWING TO DIURNAL COOLING AND ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE. BUT...THE THREAT REMAINS NON-ZERO VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WRN TN AND NWRN MS THROUGH THE EVENING. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS TO FORM FROM SRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND ERN AR THROUGH MID-EVENING AND NWRN MS LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET CORE SITUATED OVER THE OH VLY STRENGTHENS AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE THETA-E AXIS. THESE STORMS ARE APT TO BE ROOTED NEAR...OR JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION. FAVORABLY SHEARED CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...AGAIN...IF A STORM MANAGES TO FORM CLOSE TO THE SURFACE/ALONG THE FRONT...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WRN TN OR NWRN MS. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP/ BACKBUILD SWWD INTO NRN LA AND ERN TX LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER TO THE NE. ..RACY.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 05:56:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 00:56:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512040554.jB45sQLp015137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040552 SWODY1 SPC AC 040551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLS POE 20 ESE RMG 35 S SPA 20 NNW CAE AGS 40 WSW MCN 40 NE CEW 50 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE CRE 30 SE OGB 25 W MGR 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TO PARTS OF SC... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CNTRL STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE LWR OH VLY...WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT SETTLES SEWD BEHIND THE LEAD WAVE WILL SLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THE DEEP S BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW REGIME BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY BY 12Z MON. ...GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO SC... NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN PARTS OF THE DEEP S AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY...TIED LARGELY TO THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS THE ASSOCIATED WSWLY LLJ WEAKENS. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE STALLING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF PEAK HEATING LEADS TO AN UNCERTAINTY ON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. MAINTENANCE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THOUGH...MAY OFFER SLIGHTLY HIGHER TSTM PROBABILITIES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HERE...INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY WEAKENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THOUGH ISOLD HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ELEVATED STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING INTO THE WARM SECTOR...BECOME SURFACE BASED...AND INTENSIFY LATE SUNDAY AFTN FROM PARTS OF PIEDMONT SC WWD INTO THE DEEP S. IF THIS INDEED OCCURS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS AND MODEST BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. LATER SUNDAY...AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...THE SWLY LLJ WILL ACCELERATE...MAXIMIZING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RATHER BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. ..RACY.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 12:50:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 07:50:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512041249.jB4Cn5kc008367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041246 SWODY1 SPC AC 041244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLS POE 20 ESE RMG 35 S SPA 20 NNW CAE AGS 40 WSW MCN 40 NE CEW 50 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE CHS 20 NE SSI 15 S VLD 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS/AL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS REGION. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST REGION AFTER DARK...CAUSING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING THE SEVERE THREAT RATHER LIMITED. ..HART.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 16:16:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 11:16:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512041615.jB4GF1D3023137@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041609 SWODY1 SPC AC 041608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE GLS 30 W ESF 20 N ATL 35 SW MCN 20 WSW DHN 50 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BRO 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW GGG 20 NE TXK MEM 30 WSW CSV 15 ESE TRI 40 E TRI 35 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE CHS 20 NE SSI 15 S VLD 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CONUS. WEAK RIDGING LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AS MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THRU NERN U.S. AND NEXT TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTRAL ROCKIES DROPS SEWD. SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING APPALACHIANS EXTENDS WSWWD THRU NRN AL INTO CENTRAL LA TO TX COASTAL PLAIN. PORTION OF FRONT GULF STATES EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FLOW NEWD ACROSS GULF STATES IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM UPPER 60S CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS GA...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE. LATER TONIGHT AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW...MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS CENTRAL AL AND THEN MOVES ENEWD ACROSS GA TOWARD MORNING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON VICINITY AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND CORRESPONDING WIND DAMAGE LATER TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 4 20:04:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 15:04:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512042002.jB4K2H8t005877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041959 SWODY1 SPC AC 041957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 15 E HOU 25 NNW POE 20 WNW GAD 20 ENE AHN 35 SSW AGS 20 NW MAI 50 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GLD 30 E GLD 60 N GCK 30 WSW DDC 20 E GUY 25 NE CAO 35 NNW CAO 35 S LHX 15 N LAA 25 NW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 25 NNE CRP 30 NNW UTS 30 NNW ELD 10 ESE MEM 25 S CSV 40 SE TRI 45 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CHS 35 SW SAV 20 SW VLD 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER TX COAST ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...UPPER TX COAST EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS NRN GA/CENTRAL AL/SRN MS AND INTO CENTRAL LA -- WHERE WEAK WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- INCLUDING BOTH ELEVATED STORMS N OF SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE-BASED STORMS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY -- CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SERN TX ENEWD INTO NRN GA. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED N OF FRONT SUGGESTING ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE REGION...WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND S OF FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR 60 KT ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IF ORGANIZED/SMALL-SCALE LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS CAN FORM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN LA...WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT -- IS ONGOING ATTM INVOF WEAK SURFACE WAVE. THIS THREAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS/SRN AL THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND S OF FRONT. ..GOSS.. 12/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 01:04:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2005 20:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512050102.jB512baD020814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050100 SWODY1 SPC AC 050058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE BPT 25 NNE LCH HEZ 25 NW GAD 40 S CLT 20 NNE FLO 40 S FLO 30 SW AGS 30 W MCN 40 SSW TOI 50 SE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S PSX 60 NNE VCT 30 NNW UTS 10 SSE PBF 35 NNE UOX 35 SW TYS 40 SE TRI 45 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CHS 40 NE VDI 20 NNE MGR 45 SSW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S INTO THE PIEDMONT OF SC... ...PIEDMONT SC WWD INTO THE DEEP S... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY FRONT FROM UPSTATE NC/SC ACROSS NRN GA...CNTRL AL THEN SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL LLJ THAT WAS LARGELY TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT EXITED INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN EARLIER TODAY...HAS SUPPORTED CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SC. THIS REGION EXPERIENCED HEATING TODAY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. FARTHER W...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WAS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN GA...CNTRL AL...CNTRL MS AND LA. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED INTO A BOW ECHO OVER SRN MS VCNTY A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD INTO SRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...BACKING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INDUCE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DEEP S LATER TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR A BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION TO EVOLVE/INTENSIFY FROM ERN LA ACROSS CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE DEEP S SHOW A MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR TSTMS. WHILE THERE WILL BE A PROPENSITY FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE POST-FRONTAL GIVEN BACKING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS /I.E. SHEAR BECOMING POINTED MORE TOWARD THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT/...WARM SECTOR INITIATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN 40-45 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE... TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INT0 LINE SEGMENTS AND MOVE OFF THE FRONT INTO THE WARM SECTOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ..RACY.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 05:55:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 00:55:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512050553.jB55rFUu031216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050551 SWODY1 SPC AC 050549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PNS 30 NE DHN 40 ENE MCN 10 SSE CRE 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 35 NE SGJ 45 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DAB 45 W FMY ...CONT... 50 S LCH 45 W JAN 40 NW BHM 55 S TYS 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SWINGS FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER GRTLKS AND OH VLY BY EARLY TUE. TAIL-END OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE SERN STATES. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DEEP S...ACROSS CNTRL GA AND INTO COASTAL SC THROUGH 00Z BEFORE REDEVELOPING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST EARLY TUE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO NRN/CNTRL FL WHILE WEAKENING MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. ...SERN STATES... A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS RVR NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AT 12Z MON ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-45 KT WSWLY LLJ. MOST TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION WHERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK EARLY IN THE DAY FROM CNTRL/SRN AL NEWD INTO CNTRL GA AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC/NC. WARM SECTOR EVOLUTION MON AFTN ACROSS SRN GA...COASTAL SC AND NRN FL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SRN EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY VERY WELL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS EARLY AS 12Z ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS. THE FAST WSWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN SUCH STRONG FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM SRN GA INTO COASTAL SC. HERE...LOCALIZED BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND A STRONG VEERING/INCREASING WIND PROFILE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD OFFSHORE SC/NC BY MON EVE AS CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AS THEY SINK SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL FL OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 12:59:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 07:59:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512051257.jB5CvoTi006557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051255 SWODY1 SPC AC 051253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 55 NNW PIE ...CONT... 60 SW PNS 25 ESE GZH 20 S CAE 20 SSE FLO 45 SSE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DAB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 65 SW HUM 25 NE GPT 30 N MGM 50 NW AHN 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE ACROSS GA AND SC.... LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH 06Z NAM ALREADY APPEARS SLOW WITH PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT OVER AL/MS. THIS SUGGESTS AN EVOLUTION MORE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR MOBILE. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING INTO SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS SPREAD INLAND. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE DAY SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER DARK AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. ..HART.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 16:20:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 11:20:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512051619.jB5GJD7k001866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051615 SWODY1 SPC AC 051614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW PNS 20 SW DHN 20 S CAE 20 SSE FLO 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 40 SE SSI 55 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BVE 20 ENE MOB 10 S MGM 10 WSW AHN 25 W RDU 40 ESE ORF ...CONT... 45 E DAB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS SRN GA AND ERN SC... S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND MAX MOVING THRU L/W TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY TO ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD ALONG SC/NC BORDER THEN SWWD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NRN GA TO WRN FL PANHANDLE. 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SERN STATES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE WAVE ON FRONT LOCATED OVER GA WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEWD TODAY AND THEN OVERNIGHT DEEPEN TO OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS STRONG WIND MAX APPROACHES FROM TN VALLEY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AIR MASS INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM SUGGESTS THAT TO GET MUCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL REQUIRE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO MID/UPPER 70S. IT APPEARS COASTAL GA/SC AND ERN FL PANHANDLE COULD REACH THESE LEVELS. WITH MINIMAL CIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT AND HELICITIES FROM 200-300 M2/S2 AS NOTED ON TLH VAD...SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY CAN BE MAXIMIZED. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF A TORNADO THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END FROM THE W THIS EVENING AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 5 19:23:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 14:23:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512051921.jB5JLEFu030700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051919 SWODY1 SPC AC 051917 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AAF 35 WNW AYS 15 NNW SAV 15 SSE CRE 45 SSE ILM ...CONT... 30 ESE SSI 40 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE PNS DHN CSG 20 S AND SOP 55 E ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE VRB 50 W FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...SOUTHEAST... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL LOW/MID- LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA/CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS MINIMIZING DESTABILIZATION...AND LIKELY MITIGATING MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF ACTIVITY HAS SUPPORTED AT LEAST WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. THOUGH THIS IS NOT STRONG...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO... IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNS EASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WITH LIFT FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. AS THIS OCCURS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNTIL SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AFTER 06/06Z...A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ..KERR.. 12/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 01:01:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 05 Dec 2005 20:01:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512060059.jB60xj4H018132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060057 SWODY1 SPC AC 060055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MLB 30 W SRQ ...CONT... 35 WNW PIE 20 ENE SGJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE VRB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 45 SSW CTY 35 ENE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA... ...NRN/CNTRL FL... PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN FL. VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS HAS ADVECTED SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANT AIR EWD FROM THE NEARBY GULF WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS THROUGH MID-EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE SINKS SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD TAMPA BAY AND THE CAPE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OWING TO THE VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...BUT REMAINS MODEST THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH BULK SHEAR AOA 40KTS. THOUGH BOWING SHORT LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD REMAIN THE FAVORED STORM MODE...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. YET...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL FL. ..RACY.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 05:50:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 00:50:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512060548.jB65mPQZ010704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060546 SWODY1 SPC AC 060544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W APF 30 ENE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE N ATLC BASIN TUE. NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE...NOW DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ERN TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SRN FL TUE AFTN...LEAVING MOST ALL AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES IN A SEASONABLY COLD/DRY AIR MASS. MEANWHILE... A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD TO THE LEE OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RETURN FLOW OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX LATE TUE NIGHT AND...MORE LIKELY...WED. ...SRN FL... SCT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH TUE EVE ACROSS SRN FL. EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED STORMS. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ..RACY.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 12:46:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 07:46:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512061244.jB6CiPw8022056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061242 SWODY1 SPC AC 061240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW APF 40 ESE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE BROAD TROUGH SPANS THE COUNTRY TODAY...PROVIDING COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. AIR MASS SOUTH OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 16:35:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 11:35:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512061633.jB6GXnYM003087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061631 SWODY1 SPC AC 061630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 15 WSW ALI 30 NW NIR 50 NNW VCT 45 W HOU 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S APF 30 SE APF 30 ENE MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN TIP OF FL... SMALL AREA OF MARITIME AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER FAR SRN FL...WITH WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SWWD TO POMPANO BEACH TO JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES AT 16Z. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD AND CURRENT MOVEMENT PLACES FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA NEAR 20Z. GIVEN LOWER 70F/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND CONTINUED HEATING...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...TX COAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN... AIR MASS WILL BEGIN RECOVERING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK MUCAPE BY 12Z...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 6 19:06:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 06 Dec 2005 14:06:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512061904.jB6J4E00013376@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061902 SWODY1 SPC AC 061900 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MFE 15 WSW ALI 30 NW NIR 50 NNW VCT 45 W HOU 35 SSE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW EYW 30 SW MIA 40 E MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROADENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE...STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS NOW PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A STRONG REINFORCING COLD INTRUSION NOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES ALSO COLD/DRY/STABLE...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS LOW. ...FLORIDA... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT NOW APPEARS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS. FORCING SEEMS WEAK AT BEST...AND...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID/UPPER ENVIRONMENT. ...SOUTH TEXAS... SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF WAVE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK DESTABILIZATION COULD ALSO OCCUR ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 12/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 05:47:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 00:47:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512070545.jB75jh3a004970@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070542 SWODY1 SPC AC 070541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST TUE DEC 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... A STABLE CP AIR MASS HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLDER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY THU AS A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE TURNS EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVOLVING UPPER LOW...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SERN STATES...WITH A BROAD ZONE OF WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM E TX TO FL. POLAR FRONTS HAVE RECENTLY PENETRATED WELL S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN GULF BASIN AND THE EXPECTED WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF...ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM PROBABILITIES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..RACY.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 12:29:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 07:29:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512071227.jB7CRK0E017030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071221 SWODY1 SPC AC 071219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO 10 SSE ALI 20 SSW VCT 35 SE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD/STABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS/EASTERN STATES. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST. THIS MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TODAY. ..HART.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 16:29:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 11:29:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512071628.jB7GS2LH000873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071617 SWODY1 SPC AC 071616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO ALI 10 WSW HOU 15 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS PLAINS AS ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES SWD MARCH THRU THE SRN PLAINS REACHING THE TX GULF COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER NWRN GULF OF MEXICO THRU THE PERIOD WITH A RESPONDING INCREASE IN CONVECTION PRIMARILY OFFSHORE TX COAST. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INLAND UNDER WARM ADVECTION REGIME FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TX COASTAL AREAS THRU THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MOST OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. ..HALES.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 7 19:10:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 14:10:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512071908.jB7J8YHL003527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071900 SWODY1 SPC AC 071858 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO 25 S CRP 40 SE COT 45 SW BWD DAL 30 ESE PRX 35 WSW ELD 25 SW ESF 25 SSW GPT PFN 30 ENE AAF 55 ESE AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND A BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES CURVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES HAS SHIFTED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG COUPLED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET STRUCTURE EXTENDS TO THE EAST...ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW. AS THIS OCCURS ...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT QUADRANT OF JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...GULF STATES... DUE TO RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF...EMANATING FROM MODIFYING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...UNTIL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROTATE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES LATER TONIGHT...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. NAM/NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER FOR WEAK CAPE /BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 700 MB/...AND STRUCTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY COULD INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS PRIOR TO 08/00Z...BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 12/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 00:46:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 19:46:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512080044.jB80ifHK027170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080042 SWODY1 SPC AC 080040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE PSX 35 N GLS 35 SW POE 35 SSE ESF MCB 15 NNE MOB PFN 15 NNW AAF 35 SE AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CLOSED LOW ALOFT...LOCATED NORTH OF GLD...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER OVERNIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE LIGHTNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FROM SERN TX EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHERE THE EVENING SOUNDING AT CRP AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM HOU TO FSM...WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF SOUTH OF LA. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE THUNDER COVERAGE ACROSS SERN LA THAN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE THUNDER AREA. CONVECTION OVER THE ERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. ..IMY.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 05:40:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 00:40:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512080538.jB85cTPX019173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080536 SWODY1 SPC AC 080534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 40 SSW PIB 35 WNW GZH 25 NNW DHN 20 NE ABY 15 SSW VDI 35 NNE SAV 45 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUF 15 SE IND 35 W DAY 15 WSW CMH 15 NW UNI 25 NNE HTS 50 E JKL 15 SE LOZ CKV 20 ENE PAH 25 ESE MVN 25 S HUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DEEP CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEB/KS...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SWD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER OH VALLEY... UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS 110+ KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM BETWEEN 3-6 KM PLUS THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE FORCING/LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...SERN STATES... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM MOVE FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP ELY BOUNDARY WINDS THAT VEER TO WLY WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE RATES/CLOUDS...SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 12:56:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 07:56:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512081254.jB8CspeX024506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081252 SWODY1 SPC AC 081251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 40 SSW PIB 35 WNW GZH 25 NNW DHN 20 NE ABY 15 SSW VDI 35 NNE SAV 45 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BWG 35 SSW LUK 30 NW CRW 35 WNW BLF 30 NNE TYS 35 ENE BNA 40 NNE BWG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...KY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN/WV THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW. DESPITE VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER FL BY THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSPORTING MORE MOIST AIR INLAND. SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THREAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..HART.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 16:47:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 11:47:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512081645.jB8GjZHf028048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081639 SWODY1 SPC AC 081638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1038 AM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 30 NW MSY 25 NNE ASD 15 NNW MOB 25 ESE GZH 40 W ABY 45 ENE ABY 40 NNW SAV 35 N CHS 35 E FLO 15 NW OAJ 35 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CNTL CONUS WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WILL SURGE SOUTH AS COLD POLAR AIRMASS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING S/W. ANOTHER BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA SEPARATES COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A MOIST...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...FLORIDA... 12 UTC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA...AND WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL ONLY ACT TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATES A WEAK SFC WAVE/LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM FCST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION PRECLUDE A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..AFWA.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 8 20:16:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 15:16:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512082014.jB8KENID027304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082011 SWODY1 SPC AC 082011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0211 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE GPT MOB 55 NNE MOB 25 NNW GZH 25 N ABY 10 SSW VDI 25 ENE VDI 20 ESE FLO 40 SSW ECG 45 E ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHEAST... WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING OVER FL/GA...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND OVERSPREAD THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS S/W TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. ..AFWA.. 12/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 00:38:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 08 Dec 2005 19:38:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512090036.jB90aGtN029354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090034 SWODY1 SPC AC 090032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW PFN 20 NNW AYS SAV 35 S CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN STATES... WEAK SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITHIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. EVENING SOUNDINGS IN THE REGION SHOW POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE AND LIFT TO RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. ..IMY.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 05:08:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 00:08:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512090506.jB956TOc001013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090503 SWODY1 SPC AC 090501 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CST THU DEC 08 2005 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PIE 40 ESE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FL. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...THOUGH VEERING WINDS/WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...A STABLE AND DRY/DRYING AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT. ..IMY.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 12:50:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 07:50:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512091248.jB9CmWR5013735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091246 SWODY1 SPC AC 091244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W PIE 40 ESE SGJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW NOW ENTERING WRN NY SHOULD CONTINUE RAPIDLY E INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DEEPENS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NERN SYSTEM WILL CROSS NRN PARTS OF CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH THE FL STRAITS THIS EVENING. ...CNTRL/S FL... SURFACE HEATING WILL ENHANCE WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...AND MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C PER KM SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY. DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. ..CORFIDI.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 15:51:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 10:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512091549.jB9FnP1B008638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091546 SWODY1 SPC AC 091545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...WHILE A CLIPPER SYSTEM SINKS SEWD OUT OF CO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS EWD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING INSTABILITY. ...SRN FL... SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN FL TODAY WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT. ..JEWELL/EVANS.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 9 19:05:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 14:05:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512091903.jB9J3Zul000649@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091901 SWODY1 SPC AC 091900 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FLORIDA... SURFACE FRONT...NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER INHIBITION IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WEAK FRONTAL/ PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS VERY LOW. ..KERR.. 12/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 00:41:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 09 Dec 2005 19:41:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512100039.jBA0d6pd003536@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100036 SWODY1 SPC AC 100034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LEAVING A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE SRN FL PENINSULA...WHERE THE SRN END OF THE FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND LIGHTNING THREAT. ..IMY.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 05:23:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 00:23:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512100521.jBA5LuGH004367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100518 SWODY1 SPC AC 100517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...A DRY STABLE AIR MASS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SRN FL...WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH E-W ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SRN TX THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT SINCE LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE WRN GULF...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE OFFSHORE. ..IMY.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 16:30:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 11:30:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512101628.jBAGSs6m018142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101625 SWODY1 SPC AC 101623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 10 19:49:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 14:49:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512101947.jBAJlPdn030322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101945 SWODY1 SPC AC 101943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...S FL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS APPROXIMATELY 70 ENE VRB WITH SHALLOWER CONVECTION NOTED WWD ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WHILE AN ISOLATED ONSHORE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...IT APPEARS THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL EXIST TO THE E IN THE ATLANTIC WHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 00:46:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2005 19:46:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512110044.jBB0ietW031712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110042 SWODY1 SPC AC 110040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THOUGH HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS OVER S FL...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- AS EVIDENT IN THE EVENING MIAMI FL AND KEY WEST FL -- WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 05:35:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 00:35:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512110533.jBB5Xsva019945@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110531 SWODY1 SPC AC 110529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD TOWARD SRN CA. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN FL...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...A GENERALLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER/STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD PRECLUDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 12:36:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 07:36:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512111235.jBBCZ6Re029496@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111232 SWODY1 SPC AC 111230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TSTMS OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD DIMINISH AS ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES E AWAY FROM MOISTURE AXIS INVOF STALLED FRONT. OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...STORMS NOW WELL OFF THE FL AND NC/VA/MD COASTS SHOULD MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND EDGES EWD LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 16:37:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 11:37:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512111635.jBBGZT6G010719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111633 SWODY1 SPC AC 111631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 11 19:56:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 14:56:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512111954.jBBJsq5D016274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111953 SWODY1 SPC AC 111951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER OH VALLEY... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED OVER CNTRL OH WITHIN A BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH ECHO TOPS OF 10-15 KFT. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF MOST INTENSE FORCING...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE AND NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED. ..MEAD.. 12/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 00:13:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 19:13:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512120011.jBC0BmSi010009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120009 SWODY1 SPC AC 120008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF NOAM WHILE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE WEST. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD TOWARD SRN CA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A GENERALLY STABLE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 06:00:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 01:00:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512120558.jBC5wYVn019230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120556 SWODY1 SPC AC 120554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD...AND A SECOND TROUGH EVOLVES/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...ANY DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE CONUS AS WELL. ..GOSS.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 12 16:11:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 12 Dec 2005 11:11:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512121609.jBCG9xD1017609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121605 SWODY1 SPC AC 121603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1003 AM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 05:53:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 00:53:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512130551.jBD5pI01026544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130549 SWODY1 SPC AC 130547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 6R6 65 WSW SJT 35 NNW MWL 15 SSW BVO 25 SE VIH 60 W MEM 20 NNE MLU 50 SW POE 25 NNE PSX 40 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS ERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE SECOND TROUGH DEEPENS/MOVES SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A LIMITED THUNDER THREAT ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS REGION. ...CENTRAL AND ERN TX/ERN OK INTO SRN MO/AR/NWRN LA... THOUGH HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS TROUGH APPROACHES...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY. THOUGH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX TO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME MORE NEARLY SURFACE BASED...OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 13:05:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 08:05:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512131303.jBDD3iLC001001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131301 SWODY1 SPC AC 131259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE COT 50 WSW JCT 20 NE MWL 30 NE BVO 25 SE VIH 60 W MEM 20 NNE MLU 50 SW POE 10 N PSX 25 NW CRP 40 SSE COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DOMINANT NE PAC RIDGE. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE 4 CORNERS SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT ACCELERATES ENE INTO SW KS THIS EVENING...AND REACHES SE MO/NRN AR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LLJ ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE PLNS HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN/SHIFT EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW PLUME OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE... APPARENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA...TO SWEEP N AND LATER NE ACROSS PARTS OF TX...THE OZARKS AND THE LWR MS VLY. ...CNTRL/E TX NEWD INTO ERN OK AND THE OZARKS... LATEST SURFACE/VWP DATA SHOW SHALLOW OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING ATTM OVER THE WRN GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE LWR TX GULF CST. THE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF TX AND WRN LA. DESPITE THE MOISTURE INFLOW...COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING ENE AHEAD OF 4 CORNERS IMPULSE LIKELY WILL KEEP REGION CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM E CNTRL/NE TX NEWD INTO PARTS OF OK/AR AND MO AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BOTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND ALOFT WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. BAND OF MODERATE DPVA AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING E ALONG SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED ELEVATED STORMS OVER NE OK AND THE AR/SRN MO OZARKS. FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT WEAKER UVV IN PRESENCE OF RICHER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NEARLY SURFACE-BASED TSTMS FROM E CNTRL TX INTO SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN SOME STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH MUCAPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 16:20:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 11:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512131618.jBDGIFXE013467@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131613 SWODY1 SPC AC 131612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE COT 50 WSW JCT 20 NE MWL 20 ESE CNU 30 SSW TBN 35 WSW MEM 30 S GLH 50 SW POE 10 N PSX 25 NW CRP 40 SSE COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH... SSWLY LLJ WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVERSPREADING THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING INTO ERN OK/OZARKS AND CENTRAL TX... WITH EXPANDING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF ERN TX INTO NRN LA/AR/SRN MO OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED PARCELS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY BUOYANT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 70+ KT WLY FLOW AT H5 OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 13 20:03:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 15:03:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512132001.jBDK1ZET024272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131958 SWODY1 SPC AC 131956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CRP HDO 45 S BWD DAL 10 ESE MLC FSM 30 ESE BVX 10 SSW GLH 25 WSW POE 25 SW LCH 55 SSE BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... BROADER-SCALE TROUGH IN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES REMAINS GENERALLY IN PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM. SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE MORE RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION OCCURS TONIGHT AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO MORE RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION IS ONGOING...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED AN ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF EAST TEXAS. AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ENHANCES LIFT ALONG DEVELOPING MOIST AXIS...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER CLOUD TOPS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LIGHTNING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU...BUT THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ARKLATEX...SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..KERR.. 12/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 01:03:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 20:03:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512140101.jBE11d0d008158@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140059 SWODY1 SPC AC 140058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM NIR 15 S HDO 40 NE JCT 25 S DAL 45 SW PRX 30 NNE GGG 35 NE LFK 40 SSE LFK NIR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VORT MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LARGER/NRN ROCKIES TROUGH -- WILL MOVE EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT ACROSS TX. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ...CENTRAL AND E TX... DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS ACROSS TX MAY YIELD MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT/PRIMARILY ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 06:06:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 01:06:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512140604.jBE64rxk015221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140602 SWODY1 SPC AC 140600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E CRP 20 N PSX 50 WSW POE ESF 35 NNE MCB MOB 50 SSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO COT 50 W AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 15 SE GLH 20 NNE TUP 25 SSW CHA 55 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL TX EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH/LOW -- CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FEATURE -- NOT WELL HANDLED BY THE OOZ NAM -- IS EVIDENT OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA ATTM...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO TX BY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS AND A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED. ...COASTAL TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF E TX WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SE OF COLD FRONT. THOUGH EWD ADVECTION OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SMALLER-SCALE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- AIDED BY 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET -- WILL LIKELY AID IN THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD -- MAINLY INVOF THE GULF COAST. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 13:03:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 08:03:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512141301.jBED1SrG007814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141259 SWODY1 SPC AC 141258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E CRP 20 N PSX 50 WSW POE ESF 15 N PIB 30 N CEW 20 WSW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO COT 50 W AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 15 SE GLH 20 NNE TUP 25 SSW CHA 55 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF CST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT W CST RIDGE. LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS EVOLUTION...NOW OVER SE MO...WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE AND WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER CO... AMPLIFIES SEWD. IN THE SRN STREAM...MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSE ENTERING FAR W TX...WELL-DEFINED IN STLT LOOPS AND FAIRLY WELL-DEPICTED IN THE GFS...SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS SRN/CNTRL TX TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST STATES TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ALONG CSTL FRONT ALONG THE S TX CST. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM IMPULSE...AND SHOULD MOVE NE TO THE LA CST BY THIS EVENING. FROM THERE THE WAVE LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/NE TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ...CNTRL TX NE INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST... RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM CNTRL MS WSW ACROSS NRN LA INTO S CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG DEEP CONFLUENCE/UVV BAND CONNECTING MO IMPULSE WITH W TX DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS TX FEATURE CONTINUES EWD. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ALONG THIS AXIS WILL BE STRONG /40-50 KTS/...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY EMBEDDED TSTMS. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/THUNDER EXPECTED TO FORM BY MIDDAY INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE CNTRL AND NRN TX GULF CST. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS GIVEN QUALITY OF LOW THETA-E PRESENT JUST OFF THE COAST /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/. APPROACH OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...WITH 50-60 KT DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WSWLY SHEAR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM SURFACE WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VEERING...AND MAY YIELD A THREAT FOR A TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE CST NEWD INTO LA THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION AND INTO LWR MS VLY. ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND/OR SETTLE S INTO THE GULF AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED WITH EWD EXTENT. A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...EXTEND E TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 16:35:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 11:35:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512141634.jBEGYBCA009029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141630 SWODY1 SPC AC 141629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 30 WNW VCT 45 SSW CLL 30 SW POE 45 E PIB 15 NNE MAI 45 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 30 SE COT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE TPL 30 N LFK 30 N ESF 35 SE GWO 25 SW HSV 35 E ANB 45 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... VIGOROUS SRN STREAM IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...SSWLY LLJ INCREASING ATTM INTO SERN TX WILL INTENSIFY AND LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AXIS OF 50+ KT SSWLY H85 FLTHUNDERSTORMS APPEARS WARRANTED EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY LATER TONIGHT. WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS/SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. ..EVANS.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 14 19:26:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 14:26:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512141924.jBEJOeM1026918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141917 SWODY1 SPC AC 141916 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CRP 30 WNW VCT 45 SSW CLL 30 SW POE GZH MAI 45 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 30 SE COT 20 ENE HDO AUS 30 N LFK MLU CBM BHM CSG 45 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ALONG GULF COASTAL AREAS.... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S...A WEAK COLD SURGE IS ONGOING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FRONT IS NOW PROGRESSING INTO/THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION/TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OFF TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...BY LATE THIS EVENING. COLD AIR DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS ONLY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MODIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...GULF STATES... VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...WHERE WEAKENED INHIBITION AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE MID INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LIKELY WILL OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING. AS SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT....MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR INTERSECTION WITH ANOTHER FRONT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODIFYING AIR MASS INLAND OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...OR REMAIN BASED ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION. WITH SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ZERO...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ..KERR.. 12/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 00:45:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 19:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512150043.jBF0hCeB023039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150041 SWODY1 SPC AC 150039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0639 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW 7R4 35 W LFT 35 SSE ESF GZH MAI 50 ESE AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLS 35 NW HOU 15 SW LFK MLU CBM BHM CSG 50 WSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION... ...GULF COAST... EARLY EVENING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST ONGOING SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD OFF THE LA COAST INTO THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TREND IS HEIGHTENED BY THE POOR BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO WARRANT STRONG/ROBUST UPDRAFTS INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX DEPICTS MEAGER INSTABILITY...ON THE ORDER OF 100J/KG...ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED PROFILE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. WITH TIME SLOW AIRMASS MODIFICATION DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO ERN MS. UNTIL THEN...GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WILL BE ALONG ADVANCING SQUALL LINE ACROSS SERN LA. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES COULD ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT LOCALLY...HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 05:39:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 00:39:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512150537.jBF5bIEY003558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150534 SWODY1 SPC AC 150533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE PNS 35 ENE CEW 35 SSW ABY 25 ESE VLD 25 NW GNV 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BVE 30 NE MOB 30 E 0A8 ANB 10 E AHN 40 SSW CLT DAN 10 SW DCA BWI 15 NE PHL 20 SSW JFK 40 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL... ...NRN FLORIDA... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AN EXTENSION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAS FORCED WRN GULF AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S...INTO SERN LA/SRN MS FUELING ONGOING SQUALL LINE THAT IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT. CURRENT SPEED/MOTION OF THIS LINEAR MCS WILL PLACE IT OVER THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE THIS FORCED LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES. AIRMASS OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT CONTINUES TO MODIFY EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY WEAKENING FARTHER EAST OVER THE PENINSULA...IN PART DUE TO MORE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM MODE WILL REMAIN LINEAR...AND POSSIBLY A BIT ELEVATED. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS THIS SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS NRN FL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH...RETREATING WEDGE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS. ..DARROW.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 12:44:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 07:44:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512151242.jBFCgPkB022870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151240 SWODY1 SPC AC 151238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE PNS 20 NE CEW 25 SW ABY 25 WSW AYS 25 NW GNV 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE BVE 20 E GZH 25 NNE TOI 25 N LGC 10 E AHN 40 SSW CLT DAN 45 E CHO 35 WNW ILG 15 WNW AVP 20 WSW POU 40 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...N FL AND S GA... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED TX AND THE NWRN GULF OVER THE LAST 24 HRS SHOULD ACCELERATE NE ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC CST TODAY AS DISTURBANCE NOW ROUNDING BASE OF WI UPR LOW AMPLIFIES E/SE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS. SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF IMPULSE... NOW OVER CNTRL AL...SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE SC PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING MORE RAPIDLY NNE TO NEAR KPHL FRIDAY MORNING. ...N FL/S GA NEWD TO THE NC CST... LEAD SQUALL LINE WHICH EVOLVED FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF IS WEAKENING ATTM OVER S GA AND THE FL CSTL BEND AS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OUT-RUN AXIS OF GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...HAS ALLOWED NEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO RECOVER OVER THE NERN GULF...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEARING THE KPNS AND KAQQ AREAS. AREA VWPS SHOW STRONG /40 KT/ SLY FLOW AT 1 KM. COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT WSW JET AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF N FL AND PERHAPS SW/S CNTRL GA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW INVOF SHALLOW WARM FRONT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. EMPHASIS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE CSTL CAROLINAS...WHERE AT LEAST MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AS COASTAL FRONT EDGES INLAND. CHARACTER OF STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD NOW OFF THE GA/CAROLINA CST...AND MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF STREAM...SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLUX ASSOCIATED WITH ACCELERATING SURFACE WAVE...AND INCREASING WIND FIELD/UVV ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF OH/TN VLY DISTURBANCE...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF STRONGLY-FORCED STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 16:33:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 11:33:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512151632.jBFGW8W5019438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151623 SWODY1 SPC AC 151621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF 10 S MAI 35 NE MAI 20 WNW AYS 45 W JAX 65 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF 15 NW MAI 45 S CSG 50 SSE MCN 25 NE VDI 40 WSW SOP DAN 45 E CHO 35 WNW ILG 15 WNW AVP 20 WSW POU 40 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PANHANDLE/NRN FL INTO FAR SRN GA... ...NRN FL/SRN GA... SQUALL LINE CONSISTING OF DISCRETE CORES/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS ALONG EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SURGING EASTWARD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE MESO LOW/SURFACE WAVE IS PERSISTING ALONG INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE AND WEDGE FRONT ANCHORED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAV WWD INTO SWRN GA. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...WARM FRONT ALONG NERN EDGE OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE IS EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THE WEAK LOW CENTER TO JUST WEST OF THE FL BIG BEND REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS DEFINING A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGHER SURFACE THETA-E AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. VWPS AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO INDICATE EXTREME SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 60 KT. THEREFORE...AS LONG AS STORMS CAN ROOT INTO THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST. BIGGEST QUESTION ATTM IS HOW FAR EAST CAN THE MARITIME AIR OVERSPREAD NRN FL BEFORE NARROW WARM SECTOR GETS PINCHED-OFF BY EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. ATTM EXPECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND REGION/FAR SRN GA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OVERALL WEAKENING/DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS REMAINDER OF NERN FL/SERN GA AS STORMS BEGIN INGESTING LOWER THETA-E AIR OVER THE PENINSULA. ...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE REGION... LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN WARRANTED FROM THE GA COAST NWD ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG BAROCLINIC AXIS NEAR COASTAL WARM FRONT NOW JUST OFFSHORE. NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR INLAND WITH ITS LOW CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN/COASTAL SC. THIS WOULD THEREFORE SUPPORT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. HOWEVER...SHOULD LOW DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND THEN EXTREME SHEAR AND PENETRATION OF MODIFIED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER SEVERE RISK LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOW TRACKS NWD TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE REGION. ..EVANS.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 15 19:52:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 14:52:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512151950.jBFJooNc012978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151948 SWODY1 SPC AC 151946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CHS 30 ESE FAY 45 E RZZ 25 NNE ORF 50 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF ABY 20 NW MCN AHN 40 ESE SPA DAN 45 SSE CHO DCA 35 WNW ILG AVP POU 45 SSW BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FLORIDA... AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS ONGOING NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LINGERING TRAILING SHEAR AXIS STILL A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...NEAR TAMPA BY AROUND 16/00Z...THEN INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA AND THE KEYS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE MORE MOIST AND WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ADVECT INLAND PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AND THE KEYS BY 12Z FRIDAY. ...SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST... ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AS NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH MOST SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS RETURNING OFF THE ATLANTIC ...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR SEEMS LOW. THIS IN TURN APPEARS TO LIMIT...THOUGH IT MAY NOT PRECLUDE...SEVERE THREAT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION WITH A RISK OF WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..KERR.. 12/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 01:04:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 15 Dec 2005 20:04:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512160102.jBG12Owm005112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160100 SWODY1 SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CHS 60 SSE CHS 20 NE CRE 15 SSE FAY 10 S RDU 30 NW AVC 50 SW DCA 30 WNW ILG 15 NNW TTN 10 WSW JFK 60 SE ISP ...CONT... 50 SSW CTY 50 E JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... 00Z SOUNDING FROM CHS SUGGESTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING WITH BACKING WINDS AND CAA NOTED THROUGH MID LEVELS. MODEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT DOES EXIT HOWEVER AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT PROVIDING AT LEAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION AND A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY OVER LAND DOES NOT WARRANT A SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME. ...FL PENINSULA... FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 00Z SOUNDING AT TBW THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SFC BASED PARCELS FORCED BY LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT APPEAR TO BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHTNING WITHIN THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 05:52:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 00:52:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512160550.jBG5otau012609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160549 SWODY1 SPC AC 160547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MFE 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 55 NE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... SFC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER MEXICO. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING SUGGESTS MOST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE. ...SOUTH TX... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO WITH A BROAD BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN TX WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR. THIS FEATURE WILL SHARPEN THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EAST OF BRO TO NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WRN GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN MODIFYING AND LIFTING NWD INTO THIS INCREASING ZONE OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER 06Z. ..DARROW.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 12:55:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 07:55:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512161253.jBGCrw5d005041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161251 SWODY1 SPC AC 161249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS TODAY AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WI/UPPER MI. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD AROUND THE LOW FROM VA/PA THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM NJ ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BY MIDDAY...AND ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY SINCE 10Z...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY THE ADDITION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA. FARTHER S...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE /IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND CYCLONE/ WILL STALL ACROSS SE FL. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM FAR W TX TO NW MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD TX THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAA ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY TONIGHT INVOF THE TX COAST...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR AS FAR INLAND AS THE HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT...THOUGH MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 16:20:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 11:20:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512161618.jBGGIjs9019093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161617 SWODY1 SPC AC 161615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1015 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. TWO SMALL AREAS WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...FL... ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER FAR SOUTH FL. SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THIS AREA...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ...TX COAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ..HART.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 16 19:44:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 14:44:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512161942.jBGJgn0B004949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161941 SWODY1 SPC AC 161939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BRO 55 NNE MFE 35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W EYW 25 SSW MIA 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A NARROW LINE OF CU/TCU EXTENDING FROM WELL OFFSHORE THE ERN SEABOARD SWWD ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS TO ABOUT 25 MILES S OF THE SRN TIP OF FL. MEANWHILE...THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WEAKER/MORE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER SRN FL. A STABLE AIRMASS OVER LAND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE SRN TIP OF FL. ...TX COAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS W TX/NRN MEXICO. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE S TX COAST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE W TX TROUGH AND RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OFFSHORE THE S TX COAST LATER TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 00:51:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 19:51:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512170050.jBH0o973011140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170048 SWODY1 SPC AC 170046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE TX COAST AND SOUTH FL... AIRMASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STABILIZED A GREAT DEAL WITH OFFSHORE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND POOR MODIFICATION PROFILES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED NORTH INTO THE FL STRAITS OFF OF CUBA...BUT WEAK FORCING/STEERING CURRENTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT ACROSS THE KEYS OR SOUTH FL. WARM ADVECTION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AS OFFSHORE BAROCLINICITY SHARPENS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM BRO SUGGEST A RATHER PRONOUNCED CAP ABOVE 700MB. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVE SHALLOW AND TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 05:45:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 00:45:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512170543.jBH5hGvO003001@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170541 SWODY1 SPC AC 170539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LBX 35 N GLS 35 NNW GPT 20 NNE VLD 70 ESE SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST... LATE THIS EVENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH TIME EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM...DOMINANT SFC RIDGE IS MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW LATITUDE FEATURE WILL IMPEDE NWD RETURN OF MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHILE MAINTAINING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THOUGH ALLOWING A RETURN ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF FRONT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PLUME OF SUSTAINED ASCENT. ALTHOUGH PROFILES INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...IT APPEARS MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200-400J/KG WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED...HIGHLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR 700MB. FARTHER SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED...AND MOSTLY LIKELY JUST OFFSHORE DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 12:48:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 07:48:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512171246.jBHCkXUK019932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171244 SWODY1 SPC AC 171242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PBI 55 S APF ...CONT... 45 ESE CRP 20 SE VCT 25 NNW LBX ASD 20 NNW VLD 40 SE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS IS ANCHORED BY AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL L0W CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD OVER TX AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW...AND THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS ENEWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK WAVE ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN BY TONIGHT OVER THE NERN GULF...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE WARMER OCEAN SURFACE/GREATER INSTABILITY. STILL... A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA IN THE REGION OF WAA/ASCENT ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE MUCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 100-750 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. ..THOMPSON.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 17 19:47:39 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 14:47:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512171945.jBHJjvYo031263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171944 SWODY1 SPC AC 171942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 35 SE LCH 65 SE GPT ...CONT... 45 SW PFN 50 SE CHS ...CONT... 30 ENE MLB 35 SW APF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN STATES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF ENEWD TO NEAR TPA AND THEN NEWD TO ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF NERN FL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF. LIMITED STRIKES CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COASTS OF WRN/NERN FL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONGER FORCING AND LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ..PETERS.. 12/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 00:40:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2005 19:40:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512180038.jBI0cbVv020477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180036 SWODY1 SPC AC 180035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLB 40 W APF ...CONT... 45 SW PFN 15 WNW VLD 25 S SAV 50 ESE CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL/SRN GA... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE WRN ATLANTIC BY 18/12Z. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES EWD ACROSS FL...GA AND SC. CURRENTLY...MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MLB TO SRQ. HERE...A MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS IS BEING LIFTED ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W...EXPECT CONTINUED REGENERATION OF TSTMS ACROSS THIS SAME CORRIDOR OWING TO THE PERSISTENT WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..MEAD.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 16:42:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 11:42:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512181641.jBIGf3F2018058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181636 SWODY1 SPC AC 181634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW OTH 40 NW MFR 30 NNW MHS 30 N RBL 55 N SAC 10 E SAC 20 WSW SCK 50 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PIE 40 ESE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NNEWD AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER WRN WA TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS EWD INTO OH/PA/WV THEN SWD INTO TN VALLEY AND TX. ...SRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA... WEAK SFC WAVES/LOWS WILL MOVE ENEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL TODAY...SAGGING IT SWD INTO SRN FL TONIGHT. AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS WARM AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 70S/LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S GIVING LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS WEAKENING ACTIVITY OFF THE WRN COAST...BUT WITH SOME HEATING TODAY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...SWRN OREGON INTO NWRN CA... LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS TREND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFF THE CA COAST AROUND UKIAH IS MOVING NEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING NEWD OFF THE NWRN CA COAST. MODELS INDICATE THUNDER PROBABILITIES WILL MOVE INTO CA N OF THE SFO BAY AREA INTO SWRN OREGON THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 18 20:09:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 15:09:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512182007.jBIK7Lfv019838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182005 SWODY1 SPC AC 182003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW OTH 40 NW MFR 20 SSE MFR 35 SE MHS 45 W RNO 50 SSW TVL 25 N MER 45 WNW MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PIE 40 ESE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN CA TO SWRN ORE... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NWRN CA/SWRN ORE...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SFO AREA. BOTH OF THESE MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WRN U.S. RIDGE. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS INLAND CENTRAL/NRN CA TO ORE HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY INLAND...WITH THE GREATEST SBCAPE VALUES /100-500 J/KG/ LOCATED ALONG COASTAL REGIONS FROM AROUND SFO-EKA. 17Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 1 KM/ INDICATIVE OF THE LACK OF DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN A COUPLE OF STORMS FROM THE AREAS AROUND SFO TO SAC WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND AREA VADS INDICATED SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT THESE SHEAR COUPLETS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SFO-SAC AREA AND NWD TO SWRN ORE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD FURTHER PRECLUDE STRONGER WINDS AND/OR STORM ROTATIONS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IF ANY POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR STRONGER SBCAPE...THEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES OVER THIS REGION. THUS...HAVE ADDED LOW TORNADO AND WIND PROBABILITIES TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN CA. ...SRN FL... DESPITE LACK OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN FL AT THIS TIME... INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF SURFACE FRONT IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 00:40:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 19:40:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512190039.jBJ0d2KM004819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190037 SWODY1 SPC AC 190036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 4BK 25 WNW MFR 20 WSW LMT 55 SSW AAT 40 NW TVL 45 NNE FAT 30 SSE FAT 35 SW VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN ORE/CA... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA/SRN ORE COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EWD INTO INTERMOUNTAIN W. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /REF. 00Z OAK SOUNDING/...AND SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INLAND TO THE NRN SIERRAS. AMBIENT LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE DIMINISHING OWING TO THE WEAKENING LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES E OF REGION. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 05:15:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 00:15:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512190514.jBJ5E8Z1020733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190512 SWODY1 SPC AC 190510 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW APF 40 SE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE W AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER S FL WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 12:58:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 07:58:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512191257.jBJCvRtY012788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191256 SWODY1 SPC AC 191254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS WITH GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED ACROSS NRN CA WITH THE ONSET OF A WAA REGIME AND MORE STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE FL STRAITS LATER TODAY. A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT...THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ONLY SHALLOW/WEAK ASCENT DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 15:47:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 10:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512191546.jBJFkEYx008179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191543 SWODY1 SPC AC 191541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A SPRAWLING COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE PAC NW. COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED SWD ACROSS FL PENINSULA WHICH WILL CONFINE WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO S FL. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPWARD MOTION IN WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES A THUNDER FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDING WRN U.S. AS DEEP LOW WELL OFFSHORE HEADS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE A STRONG MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST PAC NW... INSTABILITY UNDER BUILDING RDG EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..HALES.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 19 19:38:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 14:38:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512191936.jBJJavpE009741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191934 SWODY1 SPC AC 191932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLATEAU REGION INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS PUSHED 60 PLUS DEGREE DEW POINTS INTO THE SRN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. AIR MASS ACROSS THE CONUS HAS INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 00:45:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 19:45:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512200044.jBK0iBKx018264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200042 SWODY1 SPC AC 200040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING S FL WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...SURFACE FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO CUBA AND ANY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL STRAITS AND SWD. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 40N/138W. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 16/12Z. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 05:25:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 00:25:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512200523.jBK5NpLm011177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200521 SWODY1 SPC AC 200519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW BLI 45 NNW PDX 35 SSE SLE 45 NNE MFR 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 30 NNW PRB 55 WSW PRB 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THE W AND SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING IN THE E. WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL TEND TO FLATTEN TO SOME DEGREE AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST LIFTS NEWD AND DE-AMPLIFIES OVER WRN CANADA. ...WA/ORE COASTS SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL CA... A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL AIR /I.E. -18 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD WRN WA/ORE LATER TODAY ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE. RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA INTO THE CA CNTRL VALLEY...NWD TO THE ORE COAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 16:33:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 11:33:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512201632.jBKGWHKu014948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201630 SWODY1 SPC AC 201628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW AST 15 NW PDX 35 SSE SLE 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ORE/CA... MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH STRONG TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG FRONTAL BAND OFF THE CA/ORE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AFFECTING THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CA/ORE AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY MINIMAL CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THIS REGION...LIMITING THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. ...SOUTHEAST FL COAST... NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE FL PENINSULA. FLOW IS PARALLEL TO EAST COAST...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY OFF THE MIA COAST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THUS...NO THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AREA WILL BE ADDED FOR THIS REGION. ..HART.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 20 20:02:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 15:02:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512202000.jBKK0tlV000532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201959 SWODY1 SPC AC 201957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ONP 25 WNW EUG 45 NE 4BK 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES TO NRN GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM BAJA TO NW TERRITORIES...AND UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD ROUGHLY ALONG 130W PAST CA. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SE OK AND CENTRAL/E TX -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION TONIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER GULF WATERS. MARGINAL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS CA/ORE. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS IS FCST TO REMAIN TOO STABLE AND/OR DRY FOR THUNDER. ...CENTRAL CA TO COSTAL ORE... CONTINUING/ELONGATED FETCH OF SWLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE...AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER ORE/NWRN CA AND WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY INLAND IN CENTRAL CA DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CA...AS EVIDENT IN BROAD MULTILEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT HAS PRODUCED BRIEF/INTERMITTENT EPISODES OF CG LIGHTNING MAINLY OFFSHORE. WEAKLY/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL TSTM OUTLOOK. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ALONG ORE/NWRN CA COAST IN POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS...WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 200 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED/SHALLOW CB AND OTHER ROBUST BUT NON-GLACIATED TOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 01:50:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 20:50:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512210149.jBL1n3L4014142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210035 SWODY1 SPC AC 210033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW 4BK 15 W MFR 35 ENE MHS 45 W RNO 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SW ORE TO CNTRL CA... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VWP DATA INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA/SRN ORE COASTS. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY INVOF SAC...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSPECTION OF 00Z OAK SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ WHICH WERE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 1.5 KM AGL. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED REGION OF FORCING ARE FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH TSTM POTENTIAL DECREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 03Z OR 04Z. ..MEAD.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 05:42:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 00:42:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512210541.jBL5f5Xr021029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210539 SWODY1 SPC AC 210538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 35 NE ACV 45 E ACV 40 S MHS 30 NE RBL 45 E SAC MER 30 NNW PRB 75 WSW VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A GENERAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD OVER THE CONUS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN STATES AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST. IN THE W...NEXT IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR 40N/136W. THIS FEATURE AND SEVERAL OTHER SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN W CONUS RIDGE WITH MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WSWLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...GREAT BASIN INTO NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN STATES WILL REINFORCE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SAME AREA...RESULTING IN LARGELY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ...PACIFIC NW COAST INTO CNTRL CA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OWING TO THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THE COAST OVER WA AND ORE WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER TO THE S...DESPITE WEAKER FORCING VIA DPVA...IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CA COAST INTO THE CNTRL VALLEY. ..MEAD.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 12:54:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 07:54:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512211253.jBLCrUYw004593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211251 SWODY1 SPC AC 211250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 35 NE ACV 45 E ACV 10 SE MHS 45 NE RBL 10 WNW TVL 55 S TVL 35 WSW MER 30 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/ORE/WA AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 41 N AND 135 W WILL MOVE AND REACH THE NW CA/ORE/WA COASTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH/WAVE AXIS...AND THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY LOSE AMPLITUDE TONIGHT WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NARROW COASTAL STRIP W OF THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGES ACROSS ORE/WA. FARTHER S...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SFO TO TVL. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THIS AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...AND THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS 200-300 MUCAPE BASED NEAR 800 MB. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY FROM THE COAST INLAND TO THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE. ..THOMPSON.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 16:32:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 11:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512211631.jBLGV6ja022212@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211628 SWODY1 SPC AC 211626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 35 NE ACV 45 E ACV 10 SE MHS 45 NE RBL 10 WNW TVL 55 S TVL 35 WSW MER 30 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... FAST WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OFF THE NORTHERN CA/ORE COAST THAT WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREA/DURATION. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS AS THEY MOVE ASHORE. ELSEWHERE...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NATION TODAY. ..HART.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 21 20:00:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 15:00:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512211958.jBLJwvk6013444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211956 SWODY1 SPC AC 211954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW UIL 20 NNW HQM 25 E ONP 30 NNE 4BK 35 E ACV 10 SE MHS 70 NW RNO 10 ENE TVL 55 WNW BIH FAT 40 SW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES AS LA/NWRN GULF TROUGH TURNS EWD TO CROSS MS DELTA AND ERN GULF COAST REGIONS. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OVER GULF...AND REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL RIDGING OVER GULF COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING FOR THUNDER OVER LAND. FARTHER W...MEAN TROUGH OVER NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING NEWD/ENEWD TOWARD W COAST AND BC. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS IT APCHS MEAN RIDGE POSITION. PORTIONS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE NRN CA/ORE...WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. ...W COAST SATES... FLARE-UP OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES PAST 1-2 HOURS IS RELATED TO MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY PASSES...EXPECT RELATIVE LULL BEFORE WAA PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENING AND INLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKLY CAPPED AND WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG MOST AREAS. WITH BOTH TSTM REGIMES...TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT THROUGH SIERRA NV RANGE AND INTO NV...BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND MORE STABLE INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 00:52:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 19:52:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512220050.jBM0occK009911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220048 SWODY1 SPC AC 220046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW UIL HQM 40 WSW PDX 25 ENE 4BK 25 E ACV 30 S MHS 70 SSW AAT 20 SW RNO 40 NE FAT PRB 100 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC COASTAL STATES... LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS EVENING...LIFTING NEWD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...APPROXIMATELY 170 MI WEST OF UKI AT 00Z. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN CA OVERNIGHT. EVENING SOUNDING AT VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE SHOWED WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTED BETWEEN 600 AND 300 MB. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP SWLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WERE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRAS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GRADUALLY LOWERING EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO BECOME TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE ORE/WA COAST OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS VEER FROM SLY TO WSWLY...STRENGTHENING THE UPSLOPE LIFT. ..IMY.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 05:02:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 00:02:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512220500.jBM50fwf023261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220458 SWODY1 SPC AC 220456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 PM CST WED DEC 21 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG MFR 55 SW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD... AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD OUT OF NERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WA/ORE COAST LATE TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WILL STEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE STRONG FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF WA/ORE...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AOB 200 J/KG LATER TODAY. THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS/UPSLOPE FLOW...ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE LIFTING...SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION BECOMING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR LIGHTNING. ..IMY.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 12:50:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 07:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512221248.jBMCmfVB007407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221246 SWODY1 SPC AC 221245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG MFR 55 SW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE GENERAL CONFIGURATION OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH REMAINS. A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST/FL...THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED E OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. THE ONLY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST. A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX NEAR 140 W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD TO THE WA/NW ORE COASTS BY 00Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOW SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT ALONG AND W OF THE CASCADES AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. ..THOMPSON.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 16:25:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 11:25:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512221624.jBMGOF9A013586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221618 SWODY1 SPC AC 221616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1016 AM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG MFR 55 SW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INLAND INTO WA/ORE. FAST WESTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AID IN THE THREAT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES FROM NORTHERN CA INTO WA. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 22 19:44:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 14:44:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512221943.jBMJhPWS025828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221941 SWODY1 SPC AC 221939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BLI OLM PDX 35 ENE EUG 10 NNW MFR 10 ESE EKA 60 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG THE ORE AND WA COAST AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN APPROACHING 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVERHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL DRIFT EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 12/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 00:34:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2005 19:34:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512230033.jBN0XYN0015105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230031 SWODY1 SPC AC 230029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST THU DEC 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE BLI 35 WNW EAT 40 ENE DLS 45 S RDM 45 WNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WERE MOVING ONTO THE ORE/WA COAST THIS EVENING. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STEEPENED LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL PROFILES FOR CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY NOTED IN NWRN WA WHERE THE 00Z SOUNDING AT QUILLAYUTE...WA SHOWED SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM... RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 300 J/KG. CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z-05Z. AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EWD INTO ID...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM SHOULD END THE THUNDER THREAT. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO BE THUNDER FREE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. ..IMY.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 12:40:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 07:40:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512231239.jBNCdVFR021857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231237 SWODY1 SPC AC 231235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV 15 NE ELD 15 E LLQ 30 SSW GWO 35 SE JAN 35 SE MCB 10 NNE LFT 20 E LCH 15 NNE BPT 20 SE LFK 30 N SHV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND SHIFTS EWD INTO WRN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE FOR CURRENT VIGOROUS MID LEVEL JET MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN ROCKIES TO DIG RAPIDLY SEWD. BY 12Z SATURDAY...GFS AND NAM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW DEVELOPS INTO NRN MO WITH 80KT PLUS 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING SEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. ...LWR MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SLY FLOW INTO TX AS NOTED ON CRP 12Z SOUNDING WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. DEWPOINTS AOA 60F WILL MAKE IT ONSHORE TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ERN MT/WY INTO UT REACHES THE SRN PLAINS. APPEARS THAT NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS OVERDUE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 C/K. GFS EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT PORTIONS LWR MS VALLEY WITH APPROACH OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH FRONTAL LIFT. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED STRIKES NOTED THIS AM ACROSS SRN MT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS LOW THUNDER PROBABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WIND MAX INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANYTHING BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT. BUILDING RIDGE INTO PAC NW SHOULD SUPPRESS THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD EVEN WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM WILL ALSO LIMIT UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. THUS EARLIER THUNDER FORECASTED FOR PAC NW HAS BEEN DROPPED. ..HALES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 16:23:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 11:23:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512231622.jBNGM8hH015635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231619 SWODY1 SPC AC 231617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW LCH 50 NW BPT 10 SW GGG 10 NNE DEQ 30 WNW RUE 15 SE FLP 25 SE JBR 20 WNW UOX 15 SW GWO 35 WNW HEZ 35 NW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WCOAST WILL EDGE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD. THE IMPULSE SHOULD REACH THE CNTRL PLAINS/CORN BELT AND BEGIN TO CLOSE-OFF INTO A CYCLONE BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY SEWD TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...ARKLATEX REGION... GPS PWAT AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THROUGH THE AFTN AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINED AHEAD THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AS THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODELS/09Z SREF AGREE THAT THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN AND WEAKLY DESTABILIZE ALOFT AS THE ENHANCED UVV SPREADS SEWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL OCCUR AFT 09Z AND PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO CNTRL/SRN AR. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...HOWEVER. ...CNTRL PLAINS... TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG DCVA SPREADING SEWD THROUGH SRN SD/NRN NEB THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK ATTM. ..RACY.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 23 19:55:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 14:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512231954.jBNJsgik017622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231952 SWODY1 SPC AC 231950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST FRI DEC 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BPT 15 S LFK 20 SSW GGG DEQ 25 WNW RUE 25 ESE FLP 20 SE JBR 20 WNW UOX 15 SW GWO 25 E ESF 15 NNW LCH 35 NNW BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AR/E TX/LA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DIG SEWD AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS NE TX...LA AND AR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S F AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG AND/OR JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF INITIATION SHOULD BE IN WRN AR AND IN FAR EAST TX WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY RAPIDLY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS AR AND LA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO SFC HEATING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR IN WRN WA AS A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE COAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10 PERCENT IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 12/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 05:40:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 00:40:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512280541.jBS5fiNa028731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280539 SWODY1 SPC AC 280538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 27 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW BVE 45 SSE MEI 35 SW 0A8 35 S ANB 15 N MCN 20 ESE VDI 25 NW JAX 10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S 7R4 25 ESE JAN 35 SSE MKL 25 SE MDH BLV 20 E MTO 25 WNW LUK 20 N HTS 40 WSW BLF 20 NNW HKY 20 S ROA 25 NE LYH 20 W NHK 45 ESE ACY ...CONT... 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM 15 SSW OLM 20 S PDX 40 S EUG 35 E 4BK 45 ENE ACV 15 E RBL 50 NNE SAC 35 ESE SAC 70 SW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN LA/MS TO MUCH OF SRN AL/SRN GA/NRN FL INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ENEWD REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z THURSDAY. TROUGH ORIENTATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH STRONGEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO THE SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM SRN IL NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE PERIOD AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES TODAY... REACHING THE CAROLINAS TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z THU. IN THE WEST...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL AREA OF WA/ORE AND NRN CA. ...NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO NRN FL/DEEP SOUTH... SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INLAND INTRUSION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE TODAY...WITH THE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LIKELY CONFINED TO WITHIN 150-200 NM FROM THE COAST. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND WITH VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY SWD TO SERN LA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SPREAD EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BOTH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS IN ADDITION TO STORM-SCALE BOWS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL AS A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 200-300 M2/S2/ COMBINES WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER GREATER STABILITY TO THE EAST. ..PETERS.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 12:47:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 07:47:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512281248.jBSCmuDV010002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281247 SWODY1 SPC AC 281246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE BVE 50 WNW GZH 15 NNE 0A8 35 NNE GAD 25 WSW AND 40 SSE AGS 25 NW JAX 10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY ...CONT... 60 S 7R4 25 ESE JAN 35 SSE MKL 10 W FAM 25 WNW STL 15 SE CMI 40 WNW LUK 20 N HTS 25 NW BLF PSK 25 NW DAN 40 N AVC 30 SSW NHK 45 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM 20 SSE OLM 35 SW YKM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE BKE 35 SSE MYL 35 SSW SUN 45 WNW ENV 45 SSW TVL 80 SW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AM. STRONG MID/UPPER JET HAS ROTATED EWD TO THE S OF SRN MO UPPER LOW CENTER. MID LEVEL COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD WITH THE JET ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS SERN STATES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW NOW IN SRN IL SWD THRU NRN MS TO OFF GULF COAST SRN LA. MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOW 60S HAVE SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO MORE WLY AHEAD OF FRONT. SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS AL INTO WRN GA AS MID LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES SPREADING EWD WITH STRONG UPPER JET. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS AL. WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG FL PANHANDLE COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. AREA OF MOST FAVORABLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES. ANY SUPERCELL THAT FORMS WOULD ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH THE TORNADO POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL AS SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK INTO NRN GA AND TOWARD SC. MODELS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS EWD WHICH COULD CONTINUE PRIMARILY A RISK OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL. ...PAC NW... VIGOROUS COLD TROUGH OFF W COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WRN RIDGE POSITION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE COLD TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS SRN ID/NRN NV. ..HALES.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 16:40:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 11:40:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512281641.jBSGfhIH009641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281639 SWODY1 SPC AC 281638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MOB 20 WNW GZH 40 N MGM 15 WSW RMG 55 NNW AHN 40 SSE AGS JAX 10 W OCF 45 WSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW BVE 20 SSW MEI 50 SSW CKV 20 E FAM 10 N STL 20 ESE MMO GRR 30 NNE MTC YNG 20 SSW SSU 25 NW DAN 40 N AVC 30 SSW NHK 45 ESE DOV ...CONT... 35 E MLB 50 WSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW UIL 20 W CLM 20 SSE OLM 35 SW YKM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE BKE 35 SSE MYL 35 SSW SUN 45 WNW ENV 45 SSW TVL 80 SW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN IL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -20C TO -22C WHICH EXTEND WELL SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD NRN OH. COLD FRONT ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TN /MS/SOUTH CENTRAL LA INTO THE GULF WILL MOVE EWD REACHING ERN PARTS OF KY AND TN/SWRN AL BY 00Z. PRONOUNCED SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE LIMITED CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS HAS ADVANCED WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT. A BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN GA INTO EAST CENTRAL AL...APPARENTLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF INTO PARTS OF GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH CAPE OF 1000 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/GA AND NRN FL. ALTHOUGH FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT INITIATING OVER EXTREME SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL REGION...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SRN AL. MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE EXPERIMENTAL WRF-NMM SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS SERN AL/SRN GA/NWRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES INDICATE ADDED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...OH VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY... ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DIMINISHES WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE GULF COAST...12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..WEISS.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 28 20:06:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 15:06:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512282007.jBSK7sR9003165@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282005 SWODY1 SPC AC 282004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S PNS GZH 20 SSE SEM 25 WSW ANB 20 NE GAD 15 NNW RMG 20 E RMG 10 NE ATL 35 ESE ATL 50 SSE AHN 35 WSW AGS AGS 15 W OGB 30 SSE OGB 10 ENE SAV SSI GNV 30 WSW OCF 60 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE GPT 40 W SEM 45 NNE HSV 50 E BWG 45 SE IND 35 ESE LAF 15 SSE SBN 20 SE GRR 15 NNW FNT 45 NE MTC 40 W ERI 30 S YNG 25 ENE PKB 30 ENE CRW BLF 45 SSW PSK 25 WNW GSO 25 NNW RDU 40 S RIC 45 E ACY ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 35 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW HQM 40 NNW SLE 45 S EUG 25 ENE 4BK 25 NNE ACV 35 SSE EKA 55 WSW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.... ...SOUTHEAST... WIDESPREAD VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ERUPT ACROSS ERN/SERN AL AND SRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE REST OF SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN SC AFTER DARK. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HAS SPURRED RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL AL SEWD ACROSS SWRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM MIDDLE TN TO MOBILE BAY. LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG FROM THE WRN FL PNHDL INLAND ACROSS ERN AL AND SWRN GA. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY WAS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DYNAMICS AND INCREASINGLY INTENSE WLY SHEAR THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. MESOSCALE ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER AIDED ALONG WEDGE-LIKE THERMAL BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SC/SRN NC. CELLS TRACKING NEAR OR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG A CSG-AGS-CAE LINE... COULD POSE A GREATER THREAT OF LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES AND A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. OTHER SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS GIVEN RELATIVELY RAPID CELL MOTION OF 30-40KT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP EAST INTO PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND WRN SC INTO THE EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS CURRENTLY WARM BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE. DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE MCS MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND FORCING...A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNDOWN. ...APPALACHIANS... NARROW WARM SECTOR HAS DEVELOPED NWD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. STORMS WITHIN PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THIS WARMER AIR WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING OUTRUNS THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. UNTIL THIS TIME...A FEW MORE LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 12/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 00:55:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 19:55:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512290056.jBT0ueJh009670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290054 SWODY1 SPC AC 290053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AAF TLH 35 NNE DHN 30 SSW CSG 35 NNE MCN 20 NNW AGS 20 W CAE 35 ENE CAE 35 SSW FLO 15 NE SAV 10 W SSI GNV 30 WSW OCF 60 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW AAF 20 W TLH TOI 30 SSW HTS 25 N ZZV 45 W ERI 15 WNW ERI 15 SE ERI 20 NNE MGW 15 ESE EKN 35 S CHO RIC 25 NNE SBY 45 SE NEL ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 35 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW OTH 40 E OTH 50 ESE MHS 70 NW BIH 20 ENE MER 80 WSW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE OWY 30 SE BOI 35 SSE MYL 60 SW SMN 35 E SUN 25 SSE BYI 20 W ENV 40 SE EKO 20 WSW EKO 15 ENE OWY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...SOUTHEAST... BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM SC SWWD INTO SRN GA CONTINUES WITHIN AREA OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOCATED BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. BEST THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC COMBINATION FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN GA. STRONG FORCING WILL SPREAD STORMS E/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A REGION WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORM UPDRAFT ROOTS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...SO THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE HAIL. ...SRN APPALACHIANS... STRONG CONVERGENCE/FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS NRN GA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ...NERN NV/SRN ID... LINE OF CONVECTION...ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STRONG THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...MAY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ...SWRN ORE/NRN CA... COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA AND NEAR THE COAST...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 05:06:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 00:06:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512290508.jBT58JSv018612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290506 SWODY1 SPC AC 290504 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRE 40 WSW ECG 20 NNE SBY 20 NNE NEL 15 WNW BDL 15 SE CON 20 NE PWM 30 SSW BGR 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BE EJECTED NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN OVER PA...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR DELMARVA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TODAY AND ALONG THE ME COAST TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM IA SSWWD INTO NWRN AR AND NRN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...EAST COAST... THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR ERN NC AND SERN VA. ANY STORMS THAT DO PERSIST AT 12Z SHOULD END QUICKLY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND NEWD ALONG THE ME COAST... INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW...WILL RESULT IN STRONG LIFTING OVER WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. THE LIFTING OF A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE GULF STREAM OVER THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY/CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE DEPTH FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING TO OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL END AS SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH A GIVEN AREA..ENDING WARM ADVECTION/LIFT. ...ROCKIES... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING ACROSS ID ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN ERN WY/NRN CO AT 12Z AND IN ERN NEB BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO REAL INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MASS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN NO MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...PACIFIC NW... PCPN MINIMUM IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MAIN COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL NOT MOVE ONSHORE UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD...SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 12:33:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 07:33:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512291234.jBTCYmHc002558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291232 SWODY1 SPC AC 291231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE ISP 30 WNW PVD 20 S CON 20 WNW PWM 30 SSW BGR 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG TROUGH MOVES OFF E COAST BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING DELMARVA AREA DEEPENS NEWD TO OVER GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z FRI. CURRENTLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND WARM ADVECTION FUELING THUNDERSTORM AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...MOSTLY OVER WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENTLY BAND OF CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT NWRN CO. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW STRIKES ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY IS NOT AVAILABLE. ..HALES.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 16:05:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 11:05:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512291606.jBTG6eh4025323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291604 SWODY1 SPC AC 291602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 AM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JFK 10 W ORH CON 25 NW PWM 25 ENE AUG 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN NEW ENGLAND INTO COASTAL ME... UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS. COASTAL SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST OFF NJ...AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN MA TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT CHH AND GYX EXHIBIT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 100 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS SERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER COASTAL ME THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION MAINTAIN A LAYER OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY BAND OF LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS BEEN OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND... SPREADING NWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF ME BY THIS EVENING. ..WEISS.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 29 19:55:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 14:55:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512291957.jBTJvJV3032043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291955 SWODY1 SPC AC 291953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JFK 10 W ORH CON 25 NW PWM 25 ENE AUG 30 N EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LONG ISLAND INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN AND WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MID-AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AROUND THE LOW. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS INTENSIFIED VCNTY LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. INITIAL WARM CONVEYOR INDUCED BAND OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN MA COASTAL WATERS AT MID-AFTN AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND EVENTUALLY DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD...THIS NEW CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN REMAINS WEAKLY BUOYANT ALOFT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...ISOLD TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS PARCELS ARE LOFTED TO A LEVEL WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AOB MINUS 20C /ICE DEVELOPMENT/. HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND AND PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 00:36:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 19:36:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512300038.jBU0cRSc003892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300036 SWODY1 SPC AC 300034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN PA...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND...WERE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THE DEPTH BETWEEN THE LFC AND EL SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING. IN THE PACIFIC NW...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO TO PRELUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS NEB AND SD. ..IMY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 05:56:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 00:56:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512300558.jBU5wNvO009395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300556 SWODY1 SPC AC 300554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU DEC 29 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MCB 40 NNW HEZ 30 SSE LLQ 60 NNE GLH 35 E MEM 45 E MKL 40 SSW BNA 30 WNW CHA 20 NE RMG 30 NNW LGC 25 W AUO 40 ENE PIB 20 NNE MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE BLI EAT 25 W LKV RBL 70 WSW UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW AND TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TN VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN 80 KT JET MAX...DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH SEWD INTO THE AR/TN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIFT THE TROUGH NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...MS/AL AREA... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WERE LOCATED IN FAR SRN TX THURSDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS SHOULD ADVECT THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF MS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MS...WITH MUCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NRN HALF. ALTHOUGH 30 M HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROGGED ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MS...THE LARGER HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LOCATED FROM NRN MS NWD INTO TN AND KY. IF STORMS DEVELOP... FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THE QUESTION ATTM IS IF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED AS CENTRAL/SRN MS WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE JET AXIS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN MS...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND FORCING ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA BETWEEN JAN AND TUP WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/FORCING IS FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BETWEEN 21-01Z. SINCE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EXISTS AT THIS TIME...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST. IF THE THREAT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT LATER IN THE DAY...AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE NEEDED. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN MS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO AL THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN...AS MAIN FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS. ...PACIFIC NW... AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESULTS IN COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WOULD MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..IMY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 12:28:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 07:28:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512301230.jBUCUOl1008234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301228 SWODY1 SPC AC 301226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S JAN 35 N HEZ 35 S LLQ 40 NE PBF JBR 25 NW DYR 50 NE MKL 45 SSE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 40 S JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BLI 60 N MFR 20 WNW RBL 25 WSW SAC 50 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NRN MS... MID LEVEL VORT MAX NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD WITH AXIS OF 70-80 KT H5 WINDS FORECAST ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SURFACE REMAINS COOL/DRY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THIS REGION... INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /NOW OVER THE NWRN GOM/ NEWD ACROSS LA WITH 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO W-CENTRAL MS BY THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGEST ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND SHOULD SUPPORT MOIST CONVECTION INTO A REGION OF VERY WEAK/MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ATTM TO REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS REGION. A MORE LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG NERN EDGE OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MID SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN MS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE BEING WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE LOCATION OF DEEP ASCENT...NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ALL DEVELOP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SSWWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF MS AFTER 21Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING...NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...PRONOUNCED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL AS MUCAPE APPROACHES 500 J/KG. ...PAC NW... EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PERSIST INTO NRN CA AND WRN ORE/WA TODAY. AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE NRN CA/ORE COAST...RESULTANT INCREASE IN UVV AND COOLING H7-H5 TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE. ..EVANS.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 16:35:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 11:35:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512301636.jBUGadvM008456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301633 SWODY1 SPC AC 301631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCB 30 SW ESF 25 NE IER 20 ESE LLQ JBR 25 NW DYR 50 NE MKL 45 SSE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 25 WSW MCB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BLI 60 N MFR 20 WNW RBL 25 WSW SAC 50 SW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW REGIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN OK TO IA WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF THE IA/MN BORDER WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI BY TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION. FARTHER W...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PAC COAST AS A BROAD TROUGH AND SERIES OF MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA APPROACH FROM THE ERN PAC. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WA/ORE/NW CA COASTS LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 43 N AND 132 W MOVES INLAND. ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER LA/MS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING NEAR OR E OF THE MS RIVER AND STREAK EWD TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND WEAK INSTABILITY BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 850 MB MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SOME HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND WILL TEND TO LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 30 19:43:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 14:43:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512301945.jBUJj7OK029554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301943 SWODY1 SPC AC 301941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW UIL 25 E AST 35 SW MFR 45 N UKI 60 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCB 30 SW ESF 25 NE IER 20 ESE LLQ JBR 25 NE POF 30 NE FAM 20 E SLO 15 SSW EVV 50 SE BNA 20 NE RMG 40 ENE ANB 35 WNW AUO 35 ESE MEI 25 WSW MCB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR MS/TN VLYS... GPS PWAT/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH LA INTO THE MID-MS VLY WITH NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO CNTRL LA AND NEAR 50F AS FAR N AS NWRN MS/ECNTRL AR. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM IA-ERN OK WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ATOP THIS MOIST AXIS AND THE COLUMN HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY FOR ELEVATED TSTM INITIATION OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL AT EARLY AFTN. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VLYS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE TN VLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/E OF THE MS /POSSIBLY S FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY/ AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS/AL AND TN OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KTS AND WEAK MUCAPE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL. IF A TSTM CAN FORM ALONG THE FRONT FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL MS/LA THIS EVENING...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR AS UPDRAFTS THIS FAR S COULD BE ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. ..RACY.. 12/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 00:49:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 19:49:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512310051.jBV0p79c006499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310048 SWODY1 SPC AC 310047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST FRI DEC 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N UIL 30 NNW PDX 10 NNE MFR 45 N UKI 60 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW MOB 35 SSW JAN 30 NW JAN 15 E TUP 20 SE BNA 45 ENE BWG 60 SSW LEX 35 W LOZ 40 SSW LOZ 40 ESE CHA LGC 25 NNW GZH 50 NNW MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR MS/TN AND OH VLYS... STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MS VALLEY REGION...WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS TN/KY THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED IN SRN MN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS NERN IA/IL WRN TN AND KY/MS AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH NEARBY EVENING SOUNDINGS DID NOT SAMPLE THE REPRESENTATIVE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT IN THE KY/TN AREA...RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIVER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF STRONG VERTICAL MOTION STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS THIS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD...THE THUNDER SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. FURTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S HAD ADVECTED INTO MS...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB. DESPITE STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS...SO LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAVE BEEN DROPPED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO AL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE THUNDER SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS THE STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ..IMY.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 16:33:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 11:33:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512311634.jBVGYroN029160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311629 SWODY1 SPC AC 311628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W SCK 30 E UKI 35 WNW RBL 35 SSE MHS 35 E RBL 55 NE MER 30 E MER 20 SSW MER 30 ESE SJC 30 W SCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 20 NW MSY MOB CEW 20 SSE MAI 50 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W BLI OLM 30 NW MFR 35 S MFR 45 W AAT 40 ESE AAT OWY 65 WSW MLD 15 ENE OGD 45 NW PUC 35 SE U24 15 ENE NID 40 SE BFL 25 SW SBA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.... ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER NW CA. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NRN CA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING W OF THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRECIPITATION BAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION...WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING INLAND RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPECT CHANNELED SLY/SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO PERSIST WITHIN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BENEATH 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-UPPER JET. THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY INTO MID AFTERNOON IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND THEN THE SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST EARLY SUNDAY... RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF BASIN WITH BUOYS SHOWING NEAR 70 F DEW POINTS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER THE N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WAA TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NE MEXICO. THOUGH TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW UNTIL DAY 2...ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z IN THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY MSY TO TLH. ..THOMPSON.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 31 20:03:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2005 15:03:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200512312005.jBVK5XjO013240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312003 SWODY1 SPC AC 312002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MER 40 E SCK 60 NNE MER 40 NE FAT 40 NE BFL BFL 20 NE PRB 25 S MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 20 NW MSY MOB CEW 20 SSE MAI 50 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N UIL 35 SSW OLM 25 W MFR 35 SSE MFR 35 SSE LMT 45 ENE LKV 15 N OWY 50 S BYI OGD 55 SSE SLC 50 SSW ELY 15 WNW PMD 15 NE SBA 25 SW VBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA... ...NRN/CNTRL CA... COMPACT AND VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS ACROSS NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY A FAST MOVING SOLID LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. HOWEVER...TRAILING PORTION OF THE WIND SHIFT/SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE BASED ON LATEST HNX VWP DATA. GIVEN LINEAR STRUCTURE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF FRESNO COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LEADING LINE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN BY WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WHILE A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 12/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM