From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 00:31:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 19:31:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508010100.j7110W3N029929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010058 SWODY1 SPC AC 010057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 20 W HTL 20 SSW RHI 55 ENE STC 25 ESE BRD 45 NE BRD 15 NNW HIB 35 NW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 30 SW BWG 25 SSE HTS 25 ESE HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 WSW ERI ...CONT... 25 ESE DTW 30 WSW JXN 35 SE MKE RFD 30 ENE MLI 45 NNW STL 10 S COU 30 N SZL 10 SSW FLV 30 SSE MHK 25 NW HUT 40 SW GLD 35 NNE LHX 45 ENE ALS 15 NW 4SL 25 NNE GNT 50 WNW ONM 20 WNW TCS 45 W ELP ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 45 WSW DRA 70 ESE TVL 40 W SVE 30 WNW RBL 45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 10 NNW PDT 10 WNW PUW 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 55 WSW GGW 90 E LWT 40 SSW MLS 10 NE REJ 45 NW PHP 30 SSE PHP 25 E MHN 15 SW BBW 20 N EAR 25 NE GRI 15 NNW OLU 20 SSW BKX 35 ENE ATY 15 NW AXN 35 NNW BRD 45 WNW HIB 20 E INL ...CONT... 45 N BML 25 ESE EEN 20 NNE BDR 20 WNW ABE 40 SSW MRB 35 SW SHD 10 WSW ROA 30 NNW GSO 25 WNW RDU RWI 45 E RWI 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN GREAT LAKES... BROAD REGION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN THE BASE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM CNTRL MN NEWD TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTS A LAKE BREEZE CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR DLH AND THIS LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ISOLATED TSTM CELLS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ON THE TROUGH OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALSO NEAR THE TROUGH/LAKE BREEZE INTERSECTION AROUND DLH. STRONGER STORMS WERE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CANADIAN RADAR NORTH OF SAULT STE. MARIE IN ONTARIO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND VWP AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30KT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO PARTS OF LWR MI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER SRN ONTARIO MAY ALSO SPREAD ESEWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...PERHAPS MOVING INTO EXTREME WRN NY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...SRN CA/SWRN AZ... WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION HAS AGAIN FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ AND SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE STORMS HAS ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG WNWWD PROPAGATION WAS BEING AIDED BY ESELY FLOW THROUGH THE LWR TROPOSPHERE. STRONG OUTFLOW WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PHX AREA AND MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE MCD NUMBER 1908 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ..CARBIN.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 04:53:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 23:53:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508010521.j715LuOb032104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010519 SWODY1 SPC AC 010518 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 15 ESE GDV 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 55 NNE SHR 45 SSE BIL 35 NW COD 35 ESE WEY 30 NNE IDA 35 ESE SUN 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 SSW S80 40 SSW S06 35 SW FCA 40 WNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GFL MWN PWM 20 NW BOS BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 35 NNW SYR 20 W GFL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 N P07 60 SSW SJT 45 W TPL 10 WNW GGG 30 ENE PBF 55 W HTS 20 NNW PKB 35 SSW CAK 45 W TOL 15 E BEH 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 40 SW IRK 15 E OJC 25 NW EMP 10 SE SLN 20 NNE RSL 40 S MCK 30 WSW GLD 30 NNW TAD 65 S ALS 30 SSW ABQ 35 S DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 20 SSW DLS 45 SE EPH 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 WSW BIS 35 WNW HON 45 E BKX 50 E BRD 30 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ID/MT AND A SMALL PART OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN STATES THIS PERIOD AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WCNTRL U.S. CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD... MOSTLY WEAK...DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. GREATER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THESE AREAS. ...NORTHEAST... MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM SRN CANADA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACTING ON WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TSTM INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. WHILE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SHOWERS COULD INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION...POCKETS OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NY...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM UPDRAFTS PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN BANDS OR LINE SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW HAIL REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ...ID/MT... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IMPULSE IS FCST TO LIFT ACROSS NWRN WA AND BC EARLY TODAY WITH 12-HOUR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-40M BRUSHING PARTS OF ID AND MT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIFT ACTING ON NWRN EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME. WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EVOLVE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER FORCING AND RESULT IN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ID ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT. LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...ERN MT/WY AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WLY FLOW WILL AID IN MOVING THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EAST INTO HOT AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH. A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 12:18:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 07:18:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508011247.j71ClQc5022515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011245 SWODY1 SPC AC 011243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW ART MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN 40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 30 SE SJT 15 NW TPL 10 WNW GGG 30 ENE PBF 55 W HTS 20 NNW PKB 35 SSW CAK 45 W TOL 15 E BEH 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 40 SW IRK 15 E OJC 25 NW EMP 10 SE SLN 20 NNE RSL 40 S MCK 30 WSW GLD 30 NNW TAD 65 S ALS 30 SSW ABQ 35 S DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 20 SSW DLS 45 SE EPH 40 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 20 WSW BIS 35 WNW HON 45 E BKX 50 E BRD 30 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID AND MT.... UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMPLITUDE THIS MORNING THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONG HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS STORMS INTERACT WITH MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NEB/SD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. MORE ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO CENTRAL KS/NEB...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT/ID... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF ID/MT BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. PROGRESSION OF STORMS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND LESS UPPER FORCING. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY. MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 15:39:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 10:39:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508011608.j71G85wh025774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011554 SWODY1 SPC AC 011552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW ART MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN 40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 15 SSW SJT 15 WSW BWD 40 S DUA 10 ENE PBF 20 SSW PAH 45 NNE BWG 35 NNE JKL 15 NNW PKB 30 S CAK 15 SSE JXN 30 NW AZO 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 55 SW IRK 35 NNE JLN 25 SW JLN 15 NNE BVO SLN 30 N RSL 40 E GLD 50 ESE LIC 65 S ALS 25 SSW ABQ 40 SSE DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 15 SW DLS 30 SSE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 45 NE BIS 50 ESE MBG RWF 50 ENE STC 30 WNW IWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...NERN STATES... WILL CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS BECOMING MDTLY UNSTABLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO LOW/MID 80S. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING/DEVELOPING E/SEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NRN ROCKIES... S/WV TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS PAC NW INTO SWRN CANADA WITH 40-50KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS INTERIOR OF PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY...SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS ID AND WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN MT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS FROM HIGH BASED STORMS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ...HIGH PLAINS ALONG WY/NE/SD BORDER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD WWD INTO ERN WY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S THIS AM. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MDT CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT...A FEW PULSE SEVERE WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGH BASED STORM TYPE PRIOR TO SUNSET. ...SWRN U.S... CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK MOST AREAS...LIMITING THE THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 19:14:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 14:14:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508011943.j71Jh3oU007544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011940 SWODY1 SPC AC 011938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW ART MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN 40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 15 SSW SJT 15 WSW BWD 40 S DUA 10 ENE PBF 20 SSW PAH 45 NNE BWG 25 N BKW 25 WSW AOO DUJ 10 WSW DTW 30 NW AZO 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 30 ENE FLV 20 S MHK 30 N RSL 40 E GLD 50 ESE LIC 65 S ALS 25 SSW ABQ 40 SSE DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 15 NE NID 50 ESE TVL 20 NW WMC 50 ESE 4LW MHS 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 15 SW DLS 30 SSE EPH 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 45 NE BIS 50 ESE MBG 40 WNW RWF 30 ESE BRD 30 WNW IWD ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY 15 NW BWI 25 NNW GSO 20 NW SOP 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...NORTHEAST... OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST/EXPECTED SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED OVER THIS REGION. AS OF 19Z MLCAPES ARE NOW AOA 1500 J/KG WITHIN AN AXIS ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN NY AND VT...WITH A SEPARATE AXIS OVER SRN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S SUPPORT MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE-SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO MORE OF NEW ENGLAND AWAY FROM MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN NY...AND JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES... WEAK IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO ID THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORM ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FROM WRN WY INTO WRN MT/CENTRAL ID. ATTM... EXPECTED COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES OVER ID/WRN MT AS LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 80S. THUS...EXPECT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER AND LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WRN/CENTRAL WY AND S-CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR SERN MT ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER INTO SERN WY. WINDS HAVE GONE WLY INTO NERN WY...THOUGH REMAIN SELY INTO WRN NEB PANHANDLE/WRN SD. IN ADDITION...MLCAPES ALREADY AOA 1000 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH AT 19Z. WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKER CAP EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEAR LEE TROUGH OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST AT BEST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 20-30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 00:39:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 19:39:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508020108.j7218YKm002495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020106 SWODY1 SPC AC 020104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 35 ENE OLF 10 SSW OLF 25 SW GGW 45 NE LWT 10 NW 3HT 40 SW BZN 25 S DLN 35 SSW 27U 65 SW 27U 80 S S80 45 SW S80 40 ENE S80 20 NNE MSO 60 NNE MSO 30 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CZZ 45 S DAG 60 E NID 15 SE TPH 35 WSW U31 25 WSW WMC 75 S BNO PDT 40 W PUW 10 NE GEG 80 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL 35 NE JMS 50 NNW ABR 35 SE MBG 30 W PIR 35 SW PIR 25 WSW 9V9 25 S MHE 25 NNE SUX 30 WNW DSM 35 S P35 15 ESE FLV 25 SSE HSI 10 SSW EAR 20 NE MCK 20 N GLD 40 ESE LIC 25 W LHX 25 WSW TAD 25 NE SAF 10 ENE ABQ 25 N TCS 15 E SVC 65 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BID 35 S POU 30 ESE IPT 20 SW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S OSC 20 SW HTL 30 ENE MTW 35 ESE CWA 35 WNW AUW 10 NE IWD 15 SSE CMX 15 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 SE HDO 35 S SJT 40 NNE SJT 40 E ABI 20 ESE TYR 25 WSW ELD 65 ENE PBF 30 NNW DYR 35 NE PAH 35 SW SDF 20 SSW LOZ 15 WNW GSP 15 NW CAE 40 WSW FLO 35 ENE FLO 30 NE EWN 35 NW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ID/MT... ...NRN ROCKIES TO NERN MT... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON HOT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ID ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUSTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. CURRENT ACTIVITY NOW MOVING NEWD OVER ID AND SWRN MT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS NEAR A WARM FRONT ZONE ACROSS NERN MT. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING MOVES EAST. LATEST GGW SOUNDING INDICATED THAT STORMS IN THESE REGIME WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. ...ND/SD... A NUMBER OF STORMS HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN/SCNTRL ND...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS OVER WRN AND NCNTRL SD. THESE CELLS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE OVER ND...AND NEAR DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE INTERSECTION OVER SD. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED...RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A BAND OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NERN CO AND THE NEB PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL FORCING AND WAS OCCURRING IN WEAKER SHEAR AS OPPOSED TO STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...RESULTANT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION COULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ...NORTHEAST... A COUPLE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF VT/NH/ME AND NY THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A COUPLE MORE HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ONGOING CONVECTION... OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. ...LWR CO RIVER VLY... AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PULSE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA/NV AND WRN AZ. ..CARBIN.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 05:24:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 00:24:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508020553.j725rUEa024813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020550 SWODY1 SPC AC 020548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW INL 15 NE FAR 65 SSW FAR 15 S ABR 35 WSW YKN 20 NE BUB 10 S BBW 35 NNE IML 15 ESE SNY BFF 55 WNW CDR 35 S GCC 40 S SHR 40 SSW COD 25 SSE MQM 20 ENE DLN 45 E 3HT 65 SSW GGW 25 NNE OLF 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 40 S ABI 35 NNE ACT 10 SW TXK 25 NW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 30 S FLO 30 W OAJ 25 NNE RWI 55 E DAN 25 NNW GSO 35 ESE TRI 10 NW TRI 35 E PKB 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 30 SSE DBQ OTM 35 W P35 30 S BIE 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 40 W RTN 10 NE ABQ 35 SSW DMN ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT/NRN WY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVES FROM THE NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE SCNTRL CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN GREAT PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS MT AND ND...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING ERN CANADA. IN THE WEST...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...FROM THE SWRN DESERTS NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FINALLY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH/GULF COAST BENEATH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. ...NRN ROCKIES...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPR MS VLY... LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ROCKIES/SRN MT NEWD TO NRN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ID/MT/WY AND THEN SPREADING EWD ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPPING INVERSION FROM THE CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT STORM FORMATION BUT ALLOW FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD ACT ON THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...FROM NERN MT ACROSS ND AND INTO NWRN MN. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND N-S LEE TROUGH IN THESE AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS FROM ACTIVITY MERGING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE EVENING. DEEP MIXING AND STRONG HEATING WITHIN LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ORIENTED N-S ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS. WEAK SHEAR BUT HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS INTENSE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN/WI. INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK...COULD FURTHER SUSTAIN SEVERE HAIL THREAT DESPITE LIMITED SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OR TWO FROM SD/NEB EWD TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE NIGHT. SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND/NERN NY... DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE WILL BACK SWWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN NY ACROSS VT/NH AND ME BY AFTERNOON. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING AND SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF INTENSE STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. ...SRN CA/AZ/SRN NV... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INTENSE HEATING WILL AGAIN SUSTAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED BUT VIGOROUS TSTMS DRIFTING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ...AND NORTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA. CELL INTERACTIONS/MERGERS WILL PROMOTE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS RESULTING. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 11:48:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 06:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021217.j72CHCFJ001686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021214 SWODY1 SPC AC 021212 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 30 WNW BWD 35 SSW DAL 10 SW TXK 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 25 WNW OAJ 40 E RWI 45 S RIC 25 NNW GSO 35 ESE TRI 10 NW TRI 30 E PKB 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 40 W RTN 10 NE ABQ 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SRN MT/ND/SD/MN... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR INITIATION IS FROM CENTRAL ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING...WHERE GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHERN MT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ...WESTERN MT/WY... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF MONSOONAL PLUME WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT/NORTHWEST WY. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. ...NORTHEAST STATES... MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPULSE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NY/VT/NH/ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME WARRANTED. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF AZ/SRN CA/SRN NV WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 16:03:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 11:03:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021632.j72GW1HH032523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021621 SWODY1 SPC AC 021619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM RUT 25 WNW PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 20 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 20 ESE PKB 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NWRN MN... ...NEW ENGLAND... STG NWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY TRACKS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ME THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S AND A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF IMPULSE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ME AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. TRAILING PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S INTO NRN VT/NH DURING AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY AS 40-50 KT OF NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS AREA. ...ERN MT/DAKOTAS/NWRN MN... STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WRN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST FORCING AND WINDS WITH TROUGH REMAINS N OF BORDER...30-40 KT OF FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT INTO NRN PLAINS. STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ND WHERE A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD INTO N CENTRAL MT WILL BE A FEATURE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT FIRST AND THEN INTO WRN ND. WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER ND...ONCE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ND. PRIMARY THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. ...INTERMOUNTAINS AND SWRN U.S... PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM DESERTS OF SERN CA AND AZ NWD THRU UT/WRN CO INTO WY. LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MANY AREAS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK SRN CA/AZ...20-30 KT OF MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN NV DOES INCREASE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT INTO UT THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CLUSTERS. FURTHER S ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STILL LIKELY MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS AZ AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 16:17:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 11:17:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021646.j72GkHJk007323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021644 SWODY1 SPC AC 021619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM RUT 25 WNW PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 20 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 20 ESE PKB 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NWRN MN... ...NEW ENGLAND... STG NWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY TRACKS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ME THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S AND A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF IMPULSE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ME AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. TRAILING PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S INTO NRN VT/NH DURING AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY AS 40-50 KT OF NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS AREA. ...ERN MT/DAKOTAS/NWRN MN... STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WRN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST FORCING AND WINDS WITH TROUGH REMAINS N OF BORDER...30-40 KT OF FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT INTO NRN PLAINS. STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ND WHERE A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD INTO N CENTRAL MT WILL BE A FEATURE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT FIRST AND THEN INTO WRN ND. WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER ND...ONCE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ND. PRIMARY THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. ...INTERMOUNTAINS AND SWRN U.S... PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM DESERTS OF SERN CA AND AZ NWD THRU UT/WRN CO INTO WY. LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MANY AREAS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK SRN CA/AZ...20-30 KT OF MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN NV DOES INCREASE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT INTO UT THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CLUSTERS. FURTHER S ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STILL LIKELY MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS AZ AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 19:12:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 14:12:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021941.j72JfNXn030654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021938 SWODY1 SPC AC 021937 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT OLF 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM RUT MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DSM 45 WSW ALO 35 NW MLI 10 E BRL 25 NW UIN 20 WSW IRK 40 NNE STJ 55 SE OMA 50 WNW DSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MTC 30 SSW IMT 45 N EAU 40 NNW MKT 10 SSE MHN 15 SE LIC 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 50 S CRP 45 S LRD ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST... SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z. STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR. FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE COAST OF ME BY 22Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUEBEC AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS. FARTHER N...LOW-TOPPED CB/S NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THEY SHIFT SSEWD INTO NRN ME INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN CLEARING/HEATING OVER THIS REGION. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SD NEAR MOBRIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO SERN ND/NERN SD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS WY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND ERN MT. AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVERSPREADING THE DAKOTAS MAY DELAY ONSET OF STORMS A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE/HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. MOST LIKELY REGION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND AND NRN SD. WITH EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING OVER SRN MT/NRN WY AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ONE OR TWO MCS/S MAY EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 00:40:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 19:40:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508030109.j7319N9s008118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030107 SWODY1 SPC AC 030105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ANJ 15 SSW IMT 30 S IWD 45 SW DLH 40 WSW AXN 15 E PIR 15 NNE RAP 30 NW GCC 45 ENE COD 40 ENE WEY 30 SW LVM 30 N BZN 35 SE GTF 50 ENE GTF 40 SSE HVR 65 ESE HVR 35 SSE GGW 20 WNW SDY 45 NNW P24 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 25 N RAL 70 E TPH 35 ESE OWY 50 NW SUN 40 N MSO 30 NE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE MTC 30 W HTL 30 ENE CID 10 WSW SUX 25 SW LBF 45 WNW GLD 40 SW RTN 45 N ALM 75 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 SSE GFL 10 SSE UCA 10 S ITH 40 ESE BFD 15 NW DUJ 10 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 30 SSW SJT 10 WNW BWD 20 NE SEP 15 E DAL 20 SW TXK 35 NE ELD 30 ENE GLH 10 SSW CBM 20 SE BHM 15 NNE LGC 50 NE MCN 40 SE AGS 30 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...TO THE UPR GREAT LAKES... ...DAKOTAS/MN... A SMALL SEVERE STORM CLUSTER HAS FORMED NEAR LEE-TROUGH FRONTAL ZONE INTERSECTION ACROSS NRN ND. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH OVER NRN SD. MAGNITUDE OF INHIBITION AND CURRENTLY LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO STORM EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT...AND AN INCREASE MASS TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION... ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST SUSTAIN ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD BE OFFSET BY STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND THREATS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...MT... SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN/SERN MT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MEAN LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SUGGESTS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WAS CRESTING THE UPR RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MN. THIS IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SEWD ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. THESE AREAS ARE ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND...PERHAPS MERGING INTO A SMALL MCS LATER TONIGHT. ...LWR CO RIVER VLY... POORLY ORGANIZED BUT STOUT STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SRN...CNTRL...AND NWRN AZ THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED CELLS WILL ALSO PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS FROM SRN CA TO SRN NV. VERY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THIS PULSE/MULTICELL ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHEAST... LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECLINE IN OVERALL STORM INTENSITY FROM NY TO ME THIS EVENING. REMAINING CONVECTION AHEAD OF NWLY-FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ONLY POSE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF A STRONG WIND GUST...OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 05:07:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 00:07:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508030536.j735aRep029104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030534 SWODY1 SPC AC 030532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW APN 30 NW MKG 15 NNE DBQ 30 ENE OLU 20 NW EAR 45 ESE AKO 25 SSW AKO 10 NW FCL 30 ENE LAR 40 SE DGW 35 W PHP 45 ENE MBG 20 E FAR 45 ESE BJI 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 WNW FST 60 SE MAF 25 NNW ABI 35 SW ADM 40 S HRO 45 SSW JBR 35 NW CHA 20 WSW 5I3 35 E PKB 30 ESE TOL 25 NW SPI 30 S P35 25 WSW HLC 25 SSE LHX 25 NE 4CR 15 W ELP ...CONT... 20 NNW SAN 10 NNW RAL 20 NNE DAG 60 E U31 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 30 N GTF 20 W HVR 50 ESE HVR 10 SE SDY 15 ESE P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... 35 NNE PBG 15 SE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY TO WRN/UPR GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WCNTRL CANADA WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS LARGE ENOUGH THAT STRONGER WLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS STATES AND UPR MS VLY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO A HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB...ENEWD ACROSS IA AND SRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/SERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK ELY FLOW AT MID LEVEL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WILL EXIST FROM THE TN VLY...WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...WRN GREAT LAKES... CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THIS MORNING WITHIN UNSTABLE LARGE SCALE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER CANADA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION FROM WI ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. MEANWHILE...STRONGLY CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT. SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ON AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT EXPANDING AND DEEPENING COLD POOLS WITH OUTFLOW FURTHER ENHANCING MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF LARGER SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE FROM SERN SD AND NRN NEB ACROSS SWRN MN AND NWRN IA IF STORM MERGERS BECOME ALIGNED NORMAL TO STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 11:59:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 06:59:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508031227.j73CRuYV020526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031223 SWODY1 SPC AC 031222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MKG DBQ OLU MCK AKO FCL 25 NE LAR 55 W CDR RAP MBG FAR HIB 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 WNW FST 50 SE MAF 25 NNW ABI 35 SW ADM 40 S HRO 45 SSW JBR 35 NW CHA 20 WSW 5I3 35 E PKB 30 ESE TOL 25 NW SPI 30 S P35 25 WSW HLC 25 SSE LHX 25 NE 4CR 15 W ELP ...CONT... 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 25 ENE EDW 20 SSE TPH 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 30 N GTF 20 W HVR 50 ESE HVR 10 SE SDY 15 ESE P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... 35 NNE PBG 15 SE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SD/NEB/IA... RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/IA...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SD...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN ALONG/BEHIND BOUNDARY. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATES A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN MN/NORTHWEST IA DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOSE OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /SURFACE TEMPS OVER 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WILL YIELD VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER AND WILL ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATE CAP. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WI OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SUGGESTING A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. INTENSE STORMS MAY PROGRESS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES AGAIN TODAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER CELLS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TODAY. ..HART/JEWELL.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 15:49:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 10:49:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508031618.j73GIW0F009321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031613 SWODY1 SPC AC 031611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MKG DBQ OLU MCK AKO FCL 25 NE LAR 55 W CDR 15 NW RAP 20 WNW MBG FAR HIB 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 25 ENE EDW 20 SSE TPH 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 60 WNW GTF 20 W HVR 15 NE GGW ISN 25 NW P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... EFK 15 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JFK 40 ESE AVP 25 N AVP 25 NNE FKL 15 S FWA 10 WNW STL 40 NW POF 25 NE MEM 45 ENE HSV 30 SE LOZ 40 SW MGW 25 SW MRB 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 WNW ROW 35 NW GDP 15 SW MAF 40 NE ABI 35 SW DUA 35 WSW PGO 15 SE FYV 25 WNW SGF 25 ESE STJ 40 W HLC 35 SSE LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... ....UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE WEAKER REFLECTION TRANSLATES EWD INTO NRN PLAINS TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED HOWEVER RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM COMMON. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS PUSHED SEWD AND EXTENDS FROM SERN MN INTO NRN NEB. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL EXTEND BY LATE TONIGHT FROM NRN IA SWWD TO SERN CO. MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES AHEAD OF THE LEADING SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO IA AND WI. ADDITIONALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WWD ACROSS SD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF INITIATION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE AREAS WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE N/NELY FLOW INTO WRN SD ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER E STRONG HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN CAP TO ALLOW STORM INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING VICINITY OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS WI/MN. WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO GIVEN THE WARM LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR. DURING THE EVENING ONE OR MORE MCS'S WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SD EWD INTO WI ENHANCING A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...NERN U.S... NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING TODAY ACROSS NERN U.S....AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NERN NY/VT SEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNTIL THIS EVENING. ...SWRN U.S... MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM AZ NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT EXPERIENCE ACTIVE CONVECTION TUESDAY PM. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 19:45:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:45:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508032014.j73KERCM009235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032010 SWODY1 SPC AC 032008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MKG 10 ENE DBQ 10 NW GRI 20 NE MCK AKO 15 WNW FCL 20 ENE LAR 15 W CDR 40 NE RAP 10 ESE FAR 20 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 40 E NID 40 S U31 35 SW ENV 45 W TWF 20 NNW DLN 60 WNW GTF 35 SSW HVR 65 SW GGW 30 SSW REJ 15 ESE GFK 25 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NE PBG PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 25 ENE 4CR 25 SSW ROW 50 NNE HOB 50 ENE AMA 15 N END 30 ESE EMP 15 SSE STJ 40 W HLC 35 SSE LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN CO / SERN WY... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATTM FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES WSWWD INTO CENTRAL SD ATTM -- NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL / ERN SD -- OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZED / BECOME SEVERE. WITH STORMS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN MOVE / DEVELOP SEWD CLOSER TO SURFACE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN UPPER LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ORGANIZED INTO SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NY / INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THOUGH EARLY EVENING. ...AZ AND VICINITY... MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 00:30:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 19:30:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508040059.j740xTEI029720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040056 SWODY1 SPC AC 040054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EAU 45 ESE EAU 30 SSE LSE 30 SSE MCW 35 N OMA 35 SW EAR 35 S IML 20 S SNY 25 ESE AIA 35 SSW ANW 35 WNW YKN 45 E ATY 30 NW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 10 SSW ARB 40 WNW FWA 30 SE MMO 20 E OTM 35 NNW FNB 40 WSW HLC 30 NE TAD 35 ENE ONM 15 NE ALM 35 SE ROW 40 WNW PVW 20 NNW CDS 10 NNE DUA 10 NNE ELD 10 W GWO 30 NNW GAD 35 ENE 5I3 10 WNW SSU 20 E ROA 15 N RDU 35 WNW HSE ...CONT... 30 E DOV 30 SW IPT 25 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 15 SE NID 55 NNE NID 65 SW ELY 35 SW ENV 20 E PIH 30 ENE DLN 30 N LVM 30 NW BIL 60 NNE SHR 60 SSE 81V 55 NE CDR 35 E PIR 45 NNW AXN 30 W INL ...CONT... 25 N PBG 10 N BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF SD. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING WITH LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT...AND TAKING ON CHARACTERISTICS OF A SQUALL LINE. IF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE WAKE OF SQUALL LINE...FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY INCREASE ENHANCING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. OTHERWISE...SOME HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. FARTHER SW...BROADER ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ACROSS NEB WHERE NWD DRIFTING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL SURGE. IT APPEARS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NERN NEB WILL SOON EXPERIENCE DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YET TO OVERTURN PER 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LBF AND OMA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT WITH TIME THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AN EWD COMPONENT AND SPREAD TOWARD THE MO RIVER. LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. ...SWRN U.S... NUMEROUS SMALL THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ INTO SERN CA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AS EVENING PROGRESSES. 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS DISSIPATE WITHIN PULSE-TYPE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 05:22:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 00:22:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508040550.j745oxtI021415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040549 SWODY1 SPC AC 040547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ACY 25 NE BWI 40 N RIC 50 WSW ORF 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S RAL 30 ENE EDW 40 N TPH 55 WSW ELY 55 SE ELY 30 WNW U24 45 WSW MLD 15 NNW IDA 30 ENE DLN 35 E LVM 25 SSE SHR 30 NNE SNY 40 E BUB 20 SW FOD 25 SW CWA 80 ENE MQT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LAG SFC FRONTAL POSITION SOMEWHAT. RESULTANT WARM SECTOR PROFILES APPEAR LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLY ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER MI. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD...LIMITING DAYTIME SUNSHINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL TSTM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO ONTARIO. ...MO TO TX PANHANDLE... FARTHER SW...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL COOLING/MOISTENING EXPECTED WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OF CO INTO WRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORE DISCRETE WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS INTO IL. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS...HOWEVER STRONG SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN POTENTIALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS. SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 11:47:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 06:47:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508041216.j74CGR17004101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041213 SWODY1 SPC AC 041212 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 35 NE NHK 35 NE RIC 40 ENE RWI 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 25 SSE RAL 25 N RAL 30 E EDW 40 N TPH 55 WSW ELY 55 SE ELY 30 WNW U24 45 WSW MLD 15 NNW IDA 30 ENE DLN 35 E LVM 40 W SHR 45 NNE CPR 20 S BFF 25 N IML 20 E LBF 35 ENE BUB 20 SW FOD 30 WSW CWA 20 SE RHI 20 NNE CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. TAIL END OF TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY. FRONT SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN OK...NORTHERN MO...CENTRAL LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF MI/IND/OH WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE WEAK WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHWEST... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CA/NV/AZ. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED IN NATURE. ..HART/JEWELL.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 19:18:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 14:18:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508041947.j74JlRAG015207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041944 SWODY1 SPC AC 041920 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF 10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN LWR MI. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW... STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW. EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV ACROSS SWRN AZ. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 19:22:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 14:22:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508041950.j74Jodhl016706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041948 SWODY1 SPC AC 041946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF 10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN LWR MI. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW... STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW. EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV ACROSS SWRN AZ. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 21:15:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 16:15:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508042143.j74Lhlbh009799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042141 SWODY1 SPC AC 042139 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF 10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN LWR MI. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW... STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW. EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV ACROSS SWRN AZ. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 00:25:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 19:25:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508050054.j750s2mD012107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 25 SE UCA 30 SSW BGM 30 W MGW 20 SW UNI 40 WNW SDF 10 SSW MDH 35 E UNO 50 NNW LIT 40 NNW ELD 25 SE ELD 30 SSW GLH 30 SW TUP 15 SW HSV 45 ESE CHA 10 ESE AND 25 E CAE 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN 15 WNW NID 55 S TPH 50 WNW P38 20 S MLF 45 SE U24 45 SSE EVW 30 SSW RKS 45 E CAG 25 WSW COS 20 SE RTN 20 ENE CAO 45 NNE GCK 25 NW FNB 20 SE BRL 30 NNW BEH 35 SE OSC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WHILE STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF HIGH LEVEL WIND SHIFT IS VOID OF MEANINGFUL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN MAINLY MARGINAL-WEAK INSTABILITY. ...IL/IND... ILX SOUNDING FROM CNTRL IL INDICATES LITTLE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AT THAT LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED SOMEWHAT ALONG FOCUSED WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...AZ/SERN CA... SCT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. TUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT NWWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS FAVOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS BENEATH STRONGER PRECIP CORES. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN CA...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LITTLE MORE THAN SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 05:08:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 00:08:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508050537.j755bGV2002224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050535 SWODY1 SPC AC 050533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CZZ 15 E RAL 25 SSW PMD 50 SE FAT 50 WNW TVL 30 S SVE 55 NNW LOL 15 W BAM 70 ENE U31 20 E ELY 45 WNW U24 30 W OGD 20 NNW EVW 20 NNE LAR 25 WNW SNY 45 NNW GLD 40 NE LAA 45 ESE LAA 10 E DDC 40 W EMP 25 NE SZL 20 NW CMI FDY 40 NE CLE 20 S SYR 35 NW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE U.S...AND ACROSS THE ERN U.S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES OBSERVED...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES...AND NO SIGNIFICANT ZONES OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. RESULTANT CONDITIONS FAVOR SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...SRN PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ARCING NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEAR SRN MS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL FORM AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY...FORCING COMPLEX STORM INTERACTIONS THAT COULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...AREAL EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS TYPE OF STORM APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE. FARTHER WEST...AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NM INTO SRN NV WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. STORM MOTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORS PROPAGATION TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MODEST TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD ENHANCE GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 12:31:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 07:31:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508051300.j75D0L0s032599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051258 SWODY1 SPC AC 051256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CZZ 15 E RAL 25 SSW PMD 50 SE FAT 50 WNW TVL 30 S SVE 55 NNW LOL 15 W BAM 70 ENE U31 20 E ELY 45 WNW U24 30 W OGD 20 NNW EVW 20 NNE LAR 25 WNW SNY 45 NNW GLD 40 NE LAA 45 ESE LAA 10 E DDC 40 W EMP 25 NE SZL 20 NW CMI FDY 40 NE CLE 20 S SYR 35 NW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... VERY WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE LWR 48 THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINS WELL TO THE N FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO CNTRL QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WITH CONTAINING MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S/E ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF THE U.S...WHERE FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES ARE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES. THREE AREAS OF POSSIBLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCENTRATED AND/OR LOCALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY INCLUDE: (1) TN VLY TO SRN APLCNS...WHERE UNINHIBITED HEATING WILL OCCUR IN DEFORMATION ZONE IN NE QUADRANT OF WEAK SW AL UPR LOW. COUPLED WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SLOWLY-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. (2) SRN AZ...SLIGHT READJUSTMENT OF UPR PATTERN MAY YIELD SLIGHTLY FASTER UNIDIRECTIONAL ESELY FLOW OVER REGION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPR LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER WRN AZ/SE CA. OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW WWD-PROPAGATING MOVING STRONG STORMS...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS. (3) FL...LOW LEVEL DRYING AIR APPARENT IN 12Z MIA/EYW RAOBS LIKELY REFLECTS INFLUENCE OF LAST EVENING'S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER REGION. GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE...WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR SCTD TO BKN STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN PLNS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ARCING NW INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPR LOW. PULSE ENVIRONMENT COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 15:37:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 10:37:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508051605.j75G5llb031564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051601 SWODY1 SPC AC 051600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW MFR 35 NNE LMT 55 SW BNO 55 NNW OWY 45 E OWY ENV 35 N DPG 35 NE EVW 30 N LAR 45 WSW SNY 15 SSE AKO 45 WNW EHA 30 SSE DDC 25 N SZL 20 NW CMI 10 NNE FDY 25 WSW BFD 25 SE UCA 25 WNW EFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C. IN ADDITION...H85 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES AT MFL DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. THIS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD SUPPORT 2500+ J/KG MLCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL. MCV FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE E-CENTRAL COAST. CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FEATURE AND SUBSEQUENT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...STORMS WILL REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMIT ANY PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/TN RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR SAG VERY SLOWLY SWD TODAY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER AL WITH ASSOCIATED -8C T0 -9C MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT TO FOCUS STORMS WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SSWWD INTO NRN VA WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE PHI-NYC CORRIDOR. CONTINUED HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND FOCUS NEAR SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...AZ... ELY FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST TODAY WITH H85 TO H5 WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WWD MOVING IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF TUS WHICH MAY FOCUS CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. THOUGH OVERALL EASTERLIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THEY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 19:20:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 14:20:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508051948.j75JmfQ9014394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051946 SWODY1 SPC AC 051944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW MFR 35 NNE LMT 55 SW BNO 55 NNW OWY 45 E OWY ENV 35 N DPG 35 NE EVW 30 NNW LAR CYS 25 ESE FCL 25 NNE COS 30 NNW TAD 30 NE CAO 45 WSW P28 25 E HUT 30 NNW SZL 15 NW MIE 15 ESE MFD 30 N POU 35 WNW AUG 40 NW CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO NJ AND NRN VA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS HAS SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL MAINE ACROSS SERN NY INTO NERN PA. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG SEABREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AOA 30 KTS/ EXISTS NORTH OF ABOUT KBGM-KBOS. TSTMS N OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZATION /LINE SEGMENTS/ AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER S...FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS MUCH WEAKER...THOUGH GIVEN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ...FL PENINSULA... EAST-WEST COAST SEABREEZES HAVE BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH TSTMS THIS AFTN...OWING TO MINUS 8C H5 TEMPERATURES ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ...SWRN DESERTS... SFC OBS ACROSS SRN AZ SHOW THAT ELY FLOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND HAS DOMINATED THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE DESERTS. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH TIED TO VORT CENTER NEAR HERMOSILLO. IN FACT...IT APPEARS A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER/COLUMN EXISTS PER 24-HOUR CHANGE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS/GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT THE LATEST SREF IS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE. ..RACY.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 00:28:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 19:28:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508060056.j760utPg000401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060054 SWODY1 SPC AC 060052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW MFR 35 NNE LMT 45 NE 4LW 85 NNW WMC 35 SSW BAM 25 S ELY 25 W U24 25 E EVW 40 ENE RKS 25 WNW LAR FCL 25 NNE COS 20 NE TAD 20 E TCC 40 NNW PVW 50 E AMA 40 ENE GAG 30 SSW ICT 50 N SGF 45 SSW HUF 25 NW UNI 20 NNE MGW 35 N BWI 20 SSE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FEATURE HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEPLETED. ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER THE SERN U.S. THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM SRN NJ...SWWD INTO CNTRL VA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WELL SOUTH OF MARGINAL DEEP WLY FLOW THUS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...TX TO SRN CA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON FROM TX...WWD INTO SRN CA WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON OVERTURN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..DARROW.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 05:20:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 00:20:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508060548.j765mqwA013106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060546 SWODY1 SPC AC 060544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 35 NNE OXR 25 NNW SBA 25 SE PRB 30 NW BFL 40 ESE FAT 45 WNW TVL 40 SSE LMT 55 W BNO 35 ENE BKE 30 W BTM 15 NE SHR 10 E 81V 30 SSE REJ 45 SSW BIS 40 SW DVL 85 NE DVL ...CONT... 40 NW IWD STC MHE 15 N IML 55 S GLD 25 ESE DDC 40 ENE CNU 20 SSE SPI 20 NNW IND 20 W CMH 35 S CAK 25 SE PSB 20 ENE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MEANINGFUL WLY FLOW CONFINED TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. EVEN SO...SUBTLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL DRYING FROM THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TSTM DOWNDRAFTS. MANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FRIDAY WITHIN THIS PLUME APPARENTLY HAD FAIRLY EFFICIENT WET DOWNBURSTS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF LATER TODAY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...APPROACHING 8-9C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SLOWLY MOISTEN MID LEVELS RESULTING IN HIGHER RH VALUES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS BEFORE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE MODIFIED SUFFICIENTLY TO LESSEN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND PROPAGATE SWWD...INTENSIFYING AND DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE FL PENINSULA...WWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. INTO THE DESERT SW REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM INTO NRN AZ. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT AN OUTLOOK. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 12:30:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 07:30:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508061258.j76CwpX6008640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061256 SWODY1 SPC AC 061254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW ELD 20 WSW DYR 50 ENE BWG 35 NE TYS 10 SW RMG 15 NE MEI 25 SE HEZ 45 WNW ESF 20 NW ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 35 ENE CNU 30 SW SPI 35 ESE LAF 35 NNW CMH PSB 20 NE NEL ...CONT... 20 SE SAN 10 NW RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 35 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 55 E BIL 35 W RAP 55 NNW PHP 10 SSE BIS 50 NNE BIS 85 NE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE VLYS REMAINING WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW OVER AL/MS MAY OCCUR AS IMPULSE NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS CONTINUES TO SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD. ...LWR TN AND MS VLYS... WITH DEEP SHEAR RANGING FROM WEAK TO VERY WEAK ACROSS THE LWR 48...THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...NW FRINGE OF AL/MS UPR LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WET MICROBURSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL DRYING PROGRESSES SW FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE LWR MS VLY...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING STORM DOWNDRAFTS. HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG IN THIS REGION...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8-9C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ANOTHER FAVORABLE FACTOR IS MODEST BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL ENELY FLOW /PER JAN RAOB AND OKO PROFILER/ THAT WILL FOSTER COLD POOL ELONGATION/STORM PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SW...AND MAY PROMOTE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO BANDS. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER... WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. ...ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE FL PENINSULA WWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. INTO THE SWRN DESERTS...WHERE MODEST ELY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE. WITH DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER REGION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM INTO NRN/WRN AZ. SOME OF THESE COULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 15:11:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 10:11:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508061539.j76FdocS031438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061537 SWODY1 SPC AC 061536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE PBF 20 SW PAH 50 ENE BWG 35 NE TYS 10 SSE RMG 30 ENE MEI 20 SE JAN 25 ENE MLU 40 NE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 10 S RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 45 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 45 ENE BIL 35 W RAP 60 SW MBG 50 NNE MBG 25 NNW JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 S CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 35 ENE CNU 45 WSW SPI 20 NNE DNV 20 W MFD 15 E PSB 20 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...MID SOUTH INTO THE CHESAPEAKE... AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO VA. WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER AL/FL PANHANDLE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...EWD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL REMAIN SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR. THOUGH...HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS /DUE TO SUBSIDENCE NNW OF UPPER LOW/ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS INTO NRN MS/NRN AL/TN. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN PULSE-TYPE...REPORTS MAY BE CONCENTRATED ENOUGH ACROSS THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SLGT RISK AREA. ...FL... COMBINATION OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS AROUND -8C/ AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF FL BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND GIVEN WEAK WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY INTO CENTRAL/ERN FL WITHIN VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MITIGATED BY LACK OF SHEAR/STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...NRN MS TOWARDS THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW DIGGING TOWARDS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO ERN ND/NRN MN LATER TODAY. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z /I.E. MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KT/. PRIMARY NEGATIVE WILL BE OVERALL SUBSIDENT REGIME IN WAKE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY THE ETA-KF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR NRN MN. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES...THOUGH APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SLGT RISK ATTM. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 19:03:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 14:03:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508061932.j76JWETh009271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061929 SWODY1 SPC AC 061927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JAN 35 S GLH 25 NNE GLH 15 N MKL 15 NW HOP 65 SW LEX 25 NNE LOZ 35 SE LOZ 15 NNW RMG 10 SW BHM 35 N MEI 30 NW JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 10 S RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 45 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 45 ENE BIL 35 W RAP 60 SW MBG 50 NNE MBG 25 NNW JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 S CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 30 ENE CNU 40 SSE SPI 15 ENE CMH 30 ESE PSB 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NEWD TO SERN KY... ...MID-SOUTH TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA THIS AFTN. VWPS SHOW ENHANCED...ALBEIT WEAK...UNIDIRECTIONAL NELY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW. TSTMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH. ANTICIPATING A REGION WITH ANY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS VERY DIFFICULT IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME/HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT THAT FAVORS BRIEF PULSE TYPE UPDRAFTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO ARC FROM NRN MS NEWD INTO ERN KY WHERE MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...TSTMS COULD CLUSTER TOGETHER AND PROPAGATE SWWD PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ HAIL...PRIMARILY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST UNSTABLE /SLGT RISK AREA/. OUTSIDE THE SLGT RISK AREA...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DISORGANIZED. TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY/MID-EVE. ...FL... TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG THE E AND W COAST SEABREEZES. W COAST BOUNDARY SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE E COAST BOUNDARY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. GIVEN COOL H5 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND MINUS 8C ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...VIGOROUS/TALL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR BRIEF PULSE TYPE MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TSTMS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS EVE. ...NRN MN... AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...EXTENDED FROM NWRN ONT SWWD INTO NRN ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BUT REMAINS CAPPED. THOUGH STRONGER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN N OF THE BORDER ACROSS NWRN ONT TONIGHT...LATEST NAMKF AND 18Z RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NRN MN AFTER 00Z ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER WHERE STRONGEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 00:19:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 19:19:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508070047.j770ll07029669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070045 SWODY1 SPC AC 070044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 20 NNE LAX 20 SSE BFL 35 NW TVL 35 WNW 4LW 70 W BKE 20 E S80 35 SSE 3HT 40 ENE SHR 40 NW RAP 60 WSW MBG 15 W GFK 30 WNW RRT ...CONT... 80 NE CMX 45 WNW IWD 10 SSW RWF 45 W EAR 25 NNW HLC 35 WNW HUT 15 NNW CNU 30 E COU 10 NW MIE 20 ESE CAK 30 NW CXY 20 SE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS STORMS ONGOING AROUND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SERN US WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO A LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS NRN MN INTO SE SD. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A 5 % PROBABILITY LINE IS NO LONGER WARRANTED ACROSS NRN MN THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 05:25:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 00:25:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508070554.j775sI9G003058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070551 SWODY1 SPC AC 070550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE JAN 30 S GLH 40 SW JBR 40 NW CGI 55 SSE MTO 25 S BMG 30 SSW SDF 35 WSW BNA 15 NE TCL MEI 10 ESE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 50 ESE FAT 45 WSW SVE 25 W MHS 20 NNE MFR 40 NNE BKE 40 SW GTF 80 NNE BIL 10 S GDV 50 NNE ISN ...CONT... 10 WSW ANJ 30 W DBQ 40 S HSI 40 NE DDC 15 W P28 25 W BVO 10 S JEF 15 NNW FWA 20 SSE CLE 20 S ROC 15 NNE UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEY... ...OH AND TN VALLEY... A WEAK UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SERN US TODAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F...SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST CONVECTION FROM THE GFS AND NAMKF HAVE HANDLED THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS OK WITH SEVERE ON THE NW EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. TODAY...THE SOLUTIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXCEPT SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN KY SWWD TO CNTRL MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATEST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AS THE CELLS PEAK FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN US TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING ESEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MN AND SE SD. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE APPEARS UNCERTAIN AND THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING STORM INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT SUGGESTING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INITIATION. IF STORMS INITIATE...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI AND NRN IA BY LATE EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN US SUNDAY. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT...MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED STORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN AND CNTRL NY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A PULSE SEVERE THREAT CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 15 KT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND BRIEF CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...SRN CA/SW AZ... STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA AND SWRN AZ BY MIDDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL AND SRN FL... SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL HELPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS WEAKEN AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 12:34:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 07:34:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508071302.j77D2Xif007862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071300 SWODY1 SPC AC 071259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GWO 40 ENE PBF 25 ESE UNO 20 WNW ALN 10 NE CMI 20 SSE LAF 20 E BMG 35 N HOP MSL 25 W CBM 10 WNW GWO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCW 15 SW SPW 25 E BKX 30 NW STC 25 SE DLH 30 WNW RHI 40 NNW VOK 35 ENE MCW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 30 E OFK 35 ESE BUB 20 SW HSI 20 E MHK 40 S OJC 45 WSW JEF 30 SE UIN 40 N LAF 30 SSW FDY 30 E CLE 30 ESE BUF 30 N UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON ...CONT... CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 30 WSW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 40 NNE BKE 40 SW GTF 50 WNW MLS 10 NNE GDV 60 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN BAND OF WLYS REMAINS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UPR LOW NOW OVER AL SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NERN U.S. AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER KS/OK CONTINUES SEWD. ...LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS... SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL PULSE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS TODAY...ON NW FRINGE OF WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY AL UPR LOW. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OF PREVIOUS DAYS HAS SOMEWHAT LESSENED DEGREE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH. BUT RESIDUAL PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT W/N INTO THE PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. GIVEN VERY WEAK DEEP SHEAR...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WIND DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS...AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE LWR OH VLY...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. ...UPR MS VLY... A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY THIS PERIOD...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST BENEATH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT CROSSING THE NRN PLNS. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT THAT UPR FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK FRONT STALLED W/E ACROSS REGION AND PERHAPS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ERN DAKS MAY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF MN AND WRN WI. DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM GIVEN /1/ ABSENCE OF QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY AND /2/ QUESTIONS REGARDING CAP. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND...IF STORMS DO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THUS SETUP WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ASSUMING STORMS DO FORM...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI AND NRN IA BY LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN FL... SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL...HELPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY PER EYW RAOB. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 15:32:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 10:32:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508071601.j77G1B7b028755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071556 SWODY1 SPC AC 071554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCW 15 SW SPW 25 E BKX 30 NW STC 25 SE DLH 30 WNW RHI 40 NNW VOK 35 ENE MCW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW WAL 20 SSE NHK 15 N NHK 20 NE BWI 15 NNW PHL 10 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 45 SW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 45 ESE ALW 10 WSW MSO 25 WNW LWT 40 WNW GDV 60 N ISN ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 30 E OFK 35 ESE BUB 20 SW HSI 25 SW MHK 40 S OJC 45 WSW JEF 35 ESE UIN 10 NNE CGX 10 SW GRR 20 NNE LAN 30 E FNT 10 ENE MTC 25 ENE TOL 20 W CLE 20 ENE CLE 30 ESE BUF 15 NNW UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT NWD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AND SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVERSPREADING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING QUICKLY ESEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LEADING SYSTEM MAY ACT ON THE VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A W-E ORIENTED PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL MN. THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...20-30 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR WILL STILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH ANY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES...AND ANY RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC... WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA TOWARDS THE NJ COAST...WITH SUBTLE LOW/MID VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON MORNING VIS IMAGERY OVER SERN PA. THIS MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN MD/DE AT 15Z. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MODEST WLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS DE...ERN MD...SRN NJ THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NRN VA/S-CENTRAL PA AND ALSO SPREAD EWD LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BECOME SCATTERED OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG N-NW PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL DAYS OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED/WEAKENED LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THUS WILL DROP PROBABILITIES A NOTCH OVER THIS REGION...WITH RESULTANT DELETION OF CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. HOWEVER...PULSE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH TOWARDS THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL FL... OVERALL SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER FL. MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW SHOULD ADVANCE WEST COAST SEABREEZE WELL INLAND AND POSSIBLY COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES AND VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES NOW NEAR 20C AT TBW THIS MORNING. THUS...ENVIRONMENT MAY BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS THAN WAS THE CASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS. ...BLACK HILLS REGION... TERRAIN FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY-SEVERE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 19:06:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 14:06:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508071934.j77JYVis025169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071931 SWODY1 SPC AC 071930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AXN 45 WNW BRD 30 NNE BRD 50 ESE DLH 40 NW RHI 45 ESE EAU 20 SSE MKT 35 ENE BKX 45 WSW AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 45 SW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 45 ESE ALW 10 WSW MSO 25 WNW LWT 40 WNW GDV 60 N ISN ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 60 NE OMA 35 ESE OMA 30 ESE IRK 35 ESE UIN 10 NNE CGX 10 SW GRR 20 NNE LAN 30 E FNT 10 ENE MTC 25 ENE TOL 20 W CLE 20 ENE CLE 30 ESE BUF 15 NNW UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY... ...UPPER MS VLY... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NERN SD WITH A FRONT NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN. S OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HEATING. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS CONFIRM CAPPED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DAKS AND CNTRL/SRN MN /S OF FRONT/. BUT...ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF SURFACE LOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NCNTRL MN EARLY THIS AFTN. GIVEN APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKS...LARGE SCALE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM CNTRL/NRN MN TOWARD UPPER MI THROUGH EVE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN THIS CORRIDOR. THERE REMAINS A SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR TSTMS TO ROOT INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER YET THIS AFTN/EVE TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MN AND NWRN WI. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY VALUES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN SURFACE-BASED INITIATION. ...LWR OH VLY... WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTING STRONG TSTMS ALONG/N OF THE OH RVR THIS AFTN. ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE. ...BLACK HILLS VCNTY... WDLY SCT TSTMS HAVE FORMED VCNTY BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EWD THROUGH MT/DAKS. THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS WEAK...BUT GIVEN SUCH HOT BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE. ..RACY.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 00:33:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 19:33:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508080102.j78121lI020135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW FRM 35 NNW RWF AXN 35 WNW BRD 30 NE BRD 35 WNW IWD 30 NNW RHI 25 SW RHI 15 NNW LSE 30 WSW RST 30 NNW FRM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 25 N BFL 30 ENE MER 15 SSW TVL 20 NW LOL 65 WNW WMC 20 SE 4LW 65 WSW BNO 60 SSW PDT 40 SSW LWS 10 SW MSO 20 WNW LWT 30 SE SDY 40 E MOT 60 NNW DVL ...CONT... 20 WNW ANJ 55 ENE GRB 30 NNW DBQ 25 W CID 45 ENE MKC 55 SW SZL 25 E FYV 25 N HOT 15 NNW LIT 55 SW ARG 20 E TBN 45 ENE JEF 30 SW PIA 20 SW BEH 15 SSW LAN 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 W SYR 30 WNW ALB 30 ENE PSF 20 ENE BDL 35 E ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW WAL 25 NW RIC 25 S LYH 30 S GSO 10 N FLO CRE ...CONT... 10 ESE PNS 20 WSW MGM 10 ESE GAD 25 ENE CHA 15 SSW TRI 25 SSE 5I3 JKL 40 S LEX 25 SE BWG 50 SSW BNA 30 NNE MEI 20 W BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW TAD 35 ENE TAD 20 SSW LAA 35 NNE LAA 25 SE AIA 25 NW AIA 30 NNW BFF 25 WNW FCL 40 SSW 4FC 50 N ALS 40 WNW TAD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN WI ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL MN. DEVELOPING CUMULUS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LOCATED NW OF MINNEAPOLIS AND THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SUGGEST SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN CA/SW AZ... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SWRN AZ. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE WWD INTO SRN CA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION PARTIALLY DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 05:05:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 00:05:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508080533.j785XMZ3032038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080531 SWODY1 SPC AC 080529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 45 NW TVC 15 NE GRB 35 NNW VOK 20 NNE BKX 65 N PHP 30 SW Y22 25 SSE DIK 45 ENE DIK 55 WNW JMS 20 SSE BJI 15 SSE HIB 40 SE ELO 60 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 20 ESE BFL 45 W BIH 20 WNW RNO 60 NNW SVE 45 SW BNO 55 S S80 20 N MSO 55 NW FCA ...CONT... 25 N PBG 15 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GCK 10 E MHK 30 W SZL 45 SSW IRK 35 SE DSM 20 ESE FOD 15 S SPW 15 SW FSD 55 S PHP 35 SW BFF 25 NW DEN 45 NNE ALS 20 SSE TAD 40 NNE CAO 50 NNE GCK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT SWD INTO THE NCNTRL UNITED STATES TODAY BRINGING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL MN EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO NE WY AND SE MT. THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED WITH THE NAM AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN OVER-DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THIS MAY INDEED BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. AT ANY RATE...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NEAR A SFC LOW ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN WY ACROSS NRN SD INTO SCNTRL MN. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 KT OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS MN AND WI...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION INITIATES AND ON WHETHER A EWD MOVING TROUGH PHASES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ...FL... SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS FL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOVE 70 F. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS CELLS PEAK IN INTENSITY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...SRN CA/SW AZ... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE WWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL AGAIN RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD PROMOTE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 15:54:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 10:54:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508081623.j78GN4AY013566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081614 SWODY1 SPC AC 081612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW IWD 55 NNW EAU 45 NE ATY 40 SSW MBG 35 NNE RAP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNE 4BQ 25 WSW GDV 15 N SDY MOT 25 ESE TVF 20 WSW ELO 25 NW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAL 25 SSE PMD BFL 20 NE MER 55 SSW SVE 40 S 4LW 45 W BKE 75 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IRK 35 WNW SPI 20 WSW BEH 25 NNE BEH MKG 30 ENE MSN 30 WNW LNR 20 S FRM 15 SSW MHE 45 S PHP 45 WNW BFF 30 ENE DEN 35 SW PUB TAD 35 N CAO 45 WNW EHA 10 ENE GLD 35 WNW CNK 15 SE FNB 35 SSW IRK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING IMPULSE NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY LIFT NNEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SERN ND WSWWD INTO NWRN SD/SERN MT WHERE ANOTHER LOW CENTER SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF LOW CENTER BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE NOW LIFTING INTO SWRN MT ACCORDING TO WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE HOT WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF WRN SD WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100F...WITH NARROW MOIST AXIS PERSISTING NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT INTO SWRN ND/FAR SERN MT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE MT/SD/ND BORDER REGION AND SPREAD EWD. SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO MCS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED INFLOW NEAR THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. PRIMARY QUESTIONS FOR THIS SCENARIO ARE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WILL SYSTEM BE ABLE TO ACT ON WEAK CINH NEAR PEAKING HEATING?/. REGARDLESS...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM NRN SD/ND EWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITHIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 19:40:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 14:40:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508082008.j78K8MaJ005135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082006 SWODY1 SPC AC 082004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW IWD 50 NNW EAU 45 NE ATY 40 S MBG 40 NE RAP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNE 4BQ 30 W GDV 15 N SDY 15 NNW MOT 40 WNW GFK 30 NNE BJI 30 WSW ELO 55 SE ELO 40 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 20 NNW RAL 40 ESE FAT 40 E SAC 10 S RBL 40 S 4LW 45 W BKE 75 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW OTM 25 SW PIA 15 ESE MMO 30 NNE CGX 40 ENE MKE 30 ENE MSN 35 W LNR 20 S FRM 15 SSW MHE 50 WNW VTN 20 W AIA 30 ENE DEN 35 SW PUB TAD 10 W LAA 10 ENE GLD 35 WNW CNK 10 SSW OMA 25 NNW OTM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO MT... ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO MT... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS MT THIS AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS ID / WRN MT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE ATTM...EXPECT A FEW ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...FUELED BY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE FRONT NOW LYING FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN SD. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL MCS DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS ND / NRN SD INTO MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 19:31:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 14:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508091959.j79JxZ6r002181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091957 SWODY1 SPC AC 091955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E OSC 10 ESE MTW 10 NNE DBQ 25 W DSM 25 SE OLU BUB 35 E ANW 20 SSE MHE 20 NW RWF 65 SSW DLH 35 W CMX 60 NW ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CPR 25 ESE COD 20 ENE HLN 45 NW GTF 60 ESE CTB 40 SSE HVR 50 NE 4BQ 40 SSE REJ 45 SSW RAP 45 ENE DGW 25 N CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNK 40 NE DDC 25 ENE LBL 65 WSW GAG 55 NNW CDS 30 WSW LTS 15 WNW MLC 15 WNW JLN 30 W SZL 40 ENE MKC 15 NE STJ 20 W CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 20 WSW DVL 40 ENE BIS 15 N MBG 35 SE MBG 25 W HON 15 SSE BRD 50 WNW IWD ...CONT... 35 SE DTW 35 WSW FDY 25 SSE IND 35 SSW SDF 25 SSW LEX 30 W HTS 20 E UNI 20 NE YNG 25 WSW BUF ...CONT... 65 N BRO 20 S LRD ...CONT... 10 ESE SAN 25 NW EDW 40 SSE FAT 40 S TVL 30 SSW NFL 60 SSW RDM 45 NNW BNO 35 E S80 10 SSE S06 35 SW 63S 65 ESE BLI 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ACTIVE BOW ECHO NOW EXITING NRN UP OF MI WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI/SWRN MN TO SWRN NEB. 40KT BAND OF 500MB FLOW EXTENDS FROM MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO WRN GREAT LAKES. THUS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS FLOW...RESULTING IN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND POOLED VERY MOIST AIR MASS... INSTABILITIES ARE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB TO WI FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CAP HAS ERODED SUFFICIENTLY IN NERN NEB NEWD INTO WRN WI FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD VICINITY BOUNDARY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG IN AREA OF POOLED 70F DEWPOINTS S OF BOUNDARY IN SRN MN/IA...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS IS GREATEST. UPWARDS OF 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF INITIALLY MULTICELLED STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING AS COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK THIS AREA...HOWEVER PARAMETERS SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELLULAR AND RATHER ISOLATED. WEAK UPSLOPE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. WITH DEWPOINT IN THE 50S AND CONTINUED STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT/NRN WY EWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40 KT AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A VERY MOIST MONSOON AIR MASS COVERS SWRN U.S. A COLD POOL HAS DEVELOP OVER SRN NV AND IS PROPAGATING SWD INTO SERN CA AND WRN AZ. WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. ..HALES.. 08/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 00:27:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 19:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508100055.j7A0tIYl024662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100053 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE OSC 30 SE MLI 20 SSE MHK 25 WSW DDC 45 SE LAA 15 ESE LAA 45 NNE LAA 20 W GLD 35 W MCK 25 SSE SUX 25 NE VOK 35 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BPT 15 W PRX 20 SW OKC 35 W CSM 10 SSE PVW 55 NW BGS 30 S BGS 25 E SJT 40 E JCT 15 SSE HDO 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 S LGB 25 WNW BIH 25 NNW BAM 80 SSE S80 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 40 NE HVR 70 SSW GGW 60 SW DIK 35 ESE MBG 45 SSW AXN 55 SW IWD 70 NW ANJ ...CONT... 55 NNE CLE 20 W MTO TBN 40 S HRO HOT 40 SW PBF 30 NNW GLH 25 N UOX 25 E BNA BKW 40 SW DCA 20 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING EXTENDING FROM NRN MI WSWWD ACROSS WI INTO IA. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR A COLD FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LINE STRONG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SFC WINDS ARE VEERED AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCED THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS NRN MI...SE WI AND ERN IA. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ...CNTRL PLAINS... NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NE NEB EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S F AHEAD OF THE LINE. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PROFILERS SHOWING ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR IN STRUCTURE. SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM. HOWEVER...AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...SRN MT/NRN WY... ISOLATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM WCNTRL MT SEWD INTO ECNTRL WY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S F WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IS HELPING CREATE MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DUE TO HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE HIGH BASES. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILERS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 05:31:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 00:31:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508100559.j7A5xuCk019565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100558 SWODY1 SPC AC 100556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF 15 W AIA 30 E DGW 30 WSW GCC 30 SW 4BQ 40 ENE 4BQ 65 N PHP 15 W HON 25 ESE FSD 35 NNE SUX 10 SW SUX 40 WSW OFK 40 NNE LBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LTS 30 S OKC MKO 15 WSW SGF 15 SSE SZL 25 NE MKC 15 NNW SLN 30 E LBL 30 E DHT 40 ESE PVW 25 S LTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW CMX 60 S DLH 35 WSW EAU 25 SW MKE 30 NE MKG 80 NE APN ...CONT... 35 S CRP 35 S LRD ...CONT... SAN 20 WNW PMD 20 NW FAT 45 NE SAC 30 SE SVE 45 NW WMC OWY 40 ESE BOI 20 SSW S80 35 WSW PUW 30 N EAT 55 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT AND ERN WY....WITH STORMS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S F IN THE HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MTNS. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...SPREADING ESEWD INTO GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES SUGGESTING THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WCNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN MCS AND MOVING A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...NEW ENGLAND... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING THE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. IF SCATTERED STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN QUEBEC AND DRIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE FRONT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER ME..VT...NH AND NRN NY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KT WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. DUE TO THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...OH VALLEY... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY INTO THE NERN US. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER LARGE-ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN OH WWD INTO CNTRL IL COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE SWD ACROSS IL...IND AND OH. IF THIS OCCURS...A RAPID WEAKENING WOULD BE LIKELY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO KY AND WV DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER SOUTH. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 19:50:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 14:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508102018.j7AKI9M4025774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102011 SWODY1 SPC AC 102009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GRI 20 NE IML 40 SE CYS 45 SSE CPR 20 SSE LND 20 NNE JAC 15 SE GTF 50 N LWT 70 S GGW 55 SSE Y22 HON 15 E FSD 25 E SUX 40 NW OMA 20 W GRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W TRM 10 NNW DAG 35 E FAT 20 W BIH 50 SSW ELY 45 SW DPG 40 ENE OWY 75 N BOI 15 S S80 30 S S06 40 SW 63S 50 NNW EAT 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CDS 40 S OKC 35 W MKO 30 W JLN 40 NE CNU 20 SSE SLN 40 WSW RSL 25 WNW GCK 10 SE EHA 30 SSE DHT 40 NE CVS 40 SW LBB 55 SSE CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 35 NE FAR 25 W AXN 25 W MKT 25 NNE ALO 15 S RFD 30 W BEH 35 NW LAN 20 N OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO SD / NEB... ...NRN ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SD / NEB... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN ID / SWRN MT / WY INVOF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND MUCH OF NEB INVOF WEAK / NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE / 30 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH TIME...AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING LIKELY RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...JET SHOULD VEER WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING / POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS ACROSS NEB -- WHICH COULD REACH THE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / OH VALLEY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PULSE / SOME MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / BRIEFLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OFFSET INCREASE IN WIND FIELD THUS MAINTAINING ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 00:34:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 19:34:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508110102.j7B12Z0N009113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110059 SWODY1 SPC AC 110057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CNK 35 NNW HLC 35 NNW GLD 15 ENE AKO 10 NNW SNY 50 WNW BFF 15 SE CPR 35 E RIW 25 N RIW 50 S SHR 40 ENE SHR 35 SSE MLS 60 SSE GDV 15 E SDY 35 W P24 25 N Y22 40 E Y22 45 NNW PHP 40 SSW RAP 30 E CDR 15 SSW ANW 30 S YKN 60 SW FOD 35 NE FNB 35 NW CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BHB LCI 15 NE AVP HGR SHD TRI 30 WNW BWG 30 NE JBR 30 SE UMN 40 NNE CNU 20 SSE SLN 35 WSW RSL 25 W GCK 45 NE CVS 40 WSW LBB 55 S CDS 40 W MKO 15 ENE LIT 50 NNW MSL 25 ENE RMG 50 S PSK 50 ENE DAN 10 ENE RIC 10 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW RRT BJI 15 SSE AXN 10 SE FRM CID 15 S RFD 30 W BEH AZO 25 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W TRM 10 NNW DAG 10 SE NID BIH U31 60 N ELY BYI 45 WSW 27U 45 SSW MSO 30 S S06 40 SW 63S 50 NNW EAT 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.... NOTABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND COMMENCEMENT OF DIURNAL COOLING WEST OF THE ROCKIES ...THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. ...CENTRAL STATES... PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IN MORE PROMINENT BELT OF WESTERLIES EAST OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER BLOCK. IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS NORTHERN SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURES WILL PROVIDE MOST PROMINENT FORCING FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME BASED ABOVE RADIATIONAL INVERSION EAST OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ABOVE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH MODERATELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL PROVIDE CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS...THOUGH...SEEMS TO BE NEAR/JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. **FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 05:30:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 00:30:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508110559.j7B5x2gU002082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110556 SWODY1 SPC AC 110555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNK GRI FOD VOK 35 SSW OSC MTC TOL 35 W FWA LAF CMI 30 NW SPI 20 S BRL P35 25 NW CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 N RAL 50 S BIH 25 WNW TPH 20 SSE ELY 45 NW PUC 20 WNW JAC 30 E 27U 55 S S06 20 NNW PUW 30 NNE EPH 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE ERI 20 S YNG 15 ESE MGW 25 NE HGR 15 ESE GFL 15 ESE BML 20 NNE 3B1 30 NW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.... MODELS INDICATE BLOCK WILL PERSIST IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ALASKA/BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. NORTHERN BRANCH OF FLOW SPLITTING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...INCLUDING ONE WHICH HAS PROGRESSED AROUND CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS IMPULSE IS ALREADY AMPLIFYING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DOWNSTREAM...IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR VORTEX...IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN ITS WAKE...FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT NEAR SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND IN MONSOONAL MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...BUT LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME STALLED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY BY/ SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED. BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ONE OR MORE SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SEEM LIKELY TO EVOLVE WITH ASSOCIATED BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK...BUT ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO BEFORE WEAKENING. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING...BUT FORCING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. THOUGH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL...MODELS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONCERNS REGARDING STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SEEM LIKELY TO MINIMIZE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... LACK OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW FIELDS WILL ALSO GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED IN PEAK HEATING...AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF DOWNBURST OR TWO. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 12:32:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 07:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508111300.j7BD0SES023831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111257 SWODY1 SPC AC 111255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MHK GRI FOD 35 NNE MSN 15 NNE TVC 20 NE OSC 30 NE MTC TOL 35 NNW FWA 25 WNW MIE 35 E LUK 20 WSW LEX 30 NE MVN 45 S UIN 30 SSW P35 20 N MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 SSW PMD 35 ENE FAT 50 W TPH 45 WNW ELY DPG 25 SSE MLD 40 SSW WEY 55 S S06 20 NNW PUW 30 NNE EPH 70 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BUF 20 SE BFD 15 SW PSB 30 E IPT 15 ESE GFL BML 20 NNE 3B1 30 NW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N JLN 45 ENE ICT 40 WNW PNC 45 NNW CDS 50 SSW CDS 45 NW MWL 15 ESE FTW 25 WNW TYR 20 N HRO 45 N JLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS AND LWR MI... ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... STRONG SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS ALBERTA EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND SUPPRESS THE WLYS FARTHER S INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. AT THE SAME TIME... DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND AND DRIVE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN NEW ENG AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN MORE SRN BRANCH OF FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION E/NE TO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY. IN ADDITION...ANIMATED RADAR DATA DEPICT A POSSIBLE MCV MOVING E ACROSS N CNTRL KS. ...LWR MO/MID MS VLYS INTO IL/IND/SW OH THIS AFTERNOON... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM NE KS/NRN MO/SRN IA E/SE INTO CNTRL IL/IND TODAY...WHERE 25-30 KT WSW FLOW WILL EXIST AT MID LEVELS. WEAK FRONT STALLED W/E ACROSS REGION LIKELY WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED/MODULATED BY MCV NOW OVER NRN KS. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS...WITH HIGH PWS POSSIBLY ENHANCING THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. ...MID MS VLY INTO LWR MI TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO LWR MI TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM JET RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN GRT LKS. BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE ELEVATED CLUSTERS. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION STILL UNDERGOING WEAK COOL ADVECTION ATTM...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BUT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND NW MN... SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE WRN DAKOTAS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND POSSIBLY OVER NW MN TONIGHT. POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND POSSIBLY BY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS FROM PRESENT CONVECTION LIKELY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND. ...ERN WY/WRN NEB... SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER ERN WY AND PERHAPS WRN NEB...INVOF SAME FRONT AFFECTING THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY APPARENT SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN UT. ALTHOUGH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS...CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE STORM COVERAGE AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT. ..SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATL REGION... WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION...AND LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO LONG ISLAND MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS TODAY. BOTH UPR LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. BUT MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH WET DOWNBURSTS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR/COHEN.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 16:01:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 11:01:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508111629.j7BGTAvN000929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111621 SWODY1 SPC AC 111620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DEC 10 SSE P35 20 N MHK 30 SSE HSI 30 E SUX 25 SSW VOK 30 SSE OSH 35 SSE MKE 10 N DNV 20 SW DEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ERI 35 ENE BFD 45 SE UCA 10 SE BML 15 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 55 S LFK AUS 35 NNE HDO 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 35 ENE U31 60 SE EKO 35 NW EVW 20 SSW IDA BTM 30 SSE S06 30 ENE GEG 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 W HVR 65 WSW GGW 25 WSW GDV 40 NW DIK 40 NW P24 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU 30 ESE ICT 50 W CSM 30 ESE CVS 50 S LBB 10 SW LTS 40 SSE OKC 55 ENE TUL 30 W JEF SZL 35 NE CNU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS... SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COMPLEX OVER THIS REGION TODAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LIKELY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO WRN IA/SERN NEB/KS. PLACEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN LATER TODAY...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBAT PRESSURE FALLS AND ANY ASSOCIATED NWD PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS SRN WI BY THIS EVENING. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F /... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK. REGARDLESS...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT VERY UNSTABLE SBCAPE FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN IA/CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STEEP. A PAIR OF WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA WERE LIFTING ENEWD THIS MORNING...ONE OVER ERN IA AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NEB. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SERN NEB AND MUCH OF IA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST ACROSS STRONGER INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE MID EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI/IL. OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE SWWD AS STRONG HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ALONG FRONT INTO KS...AND INVOF WEAK CAP AND STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AWAY FROM MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HAVE ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... AFTER DARK...STRONG SWLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS LATER THIS EVENING. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. EXPECT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN WY... NARROW AXIS OF 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME NEAR AND JUST BEHIND STALLING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUSTAIN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE...AS STORMS INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THEY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAIN A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND AS THEY MOVE SEWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASCENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN/NRN MN TODAY. DESPITE THE INCREASED SHEAR AND DEEP ASCENT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL/STABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN WAKE OF EARLIER SURFACE COLD FRONT. EXPECT AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER...AND WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED...MUCH AS WHAT OCCURRED INTO NERN MT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS WITH EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LIMITED. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 19:42:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 14:42:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508112010.j7BKAGNb023209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112007 SWODY1 SPC AC 112005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LUK 35 WSW P35 15 NE MHK 30 SSE HSI 30 E SUX 50 SSE RST 20 NNE JVL 30 SW TOL 35 E DAY 30 SSW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MSS 30 SSE SLK 35 ESE UCA 15 S ELM 30 NW POU MWN 30 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 55 S LFK AUS 35 NNE HDO 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 35 ENE U31 60 SE EKO 35 NW EVW 20 SSW IDA BTM 30 SSE S06 30 ENE GEG 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 W HVR 65 WSW GGW 25 WSW GDV 40 NW DIK 40 NW P24 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU 30 ESE ICT 50 W CSM 30 ESE CVS 50 S LBB 10 SW LTS 40 SSE OKC 55 ENE TUL 30 W JEF SZL 35 NE CNU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OH WW INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...MIDDLE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM E CENTRAL INDIANA WWD INTO ERN NEB -- ALONG COMBINATION WARM FRONT / CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW S OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AREA OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONGEST STORMS ATTM EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND ERN INDIANA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SUGGEST MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER SUNSET. STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB / WRN IA AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT / INVOF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. EXPECT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL TO EVOLVE...AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD NRN IL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN WY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLACK HILLS -- AND FURTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY / THE CO FRONT RANGE -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FROM ROUGHLY NERN CO / NWRN KS NWD TO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM SERN ME SWD INTO ERN MA...WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW 30 TO 40 KT...ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE..CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WEAKENS. ..GOSS.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 00:11:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 19:11:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508120039.j7C0dR25003644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120036 SWODY1 SPC AC 120035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LUK BMG CMI BRL 20 NNW LWD 40 WNW DSM 10 NW ALO MSN 15 NW MKE 20 NE CGX SBN FWA DAY 30 NW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 40 NE U31 ELY BYI 40 NNW PIH DLN 35 W MSO 63S EAT 70 NE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NW CTB MLS 60 NW REJ Y22 BIS DVL 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 SSW ART 10 S UCA MSV 25 S ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL PSK LEX MVN BLV STL 45 NE COU MKC 10 NNE EMP 40 E TCC CNM FST 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 30 E CLL GGG ELD 35 N LIT ARG DYR MKL HSV RMG AND SOP 10 S HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONVECTION MOST OTHER AREAS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... WHILE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME SHEARED AND ALREADY ACCELERATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS IOWA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT EAST OF LOW... FROM PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WARM SECTOR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME. THIS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LOSS OF WARM SECTOR HEATING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THRU MID MO VALLEY... WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN WARM/MOIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STEADILY STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 00:23:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 19:23:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508120051.j7C0pHh1007453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120049 SWODY1 SPC AC 120046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LUK BMG CMI BRL 20 NNW LWD 40 WNW DSM 10 NW ALO MSN 15 NW MKE 20 NE CGX SBN FWA DAY 30 NW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 40 NE U31 ELY BYI 40 NNW PIH DLN 35 W MSO 63S EAT 70 NE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NW CTB MLS 60 NW REJ Y22 BIS DVL 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 SSW ART 10 S UCA MSV 25 S ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL PSK LEX MVN BLV STL 45 NE COU MKC 10 NNE EMP 40 E TCC CNM FST 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 30 E CLL GGG ELD 35 N LIT ARG DYR MKL HSV RMG AND SOP 10 S HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... CORRECTED GROUPING OF GEN TSTMS LINES. SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONVECTION MOST OTHER AREAS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... WHILE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME SHEARED AND ALREADY ACCELERATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS IOWA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT EAST OF LOW... FROM PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WARM SECTOR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME. THIS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LOSS OF WARM SECTOR HEATING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THRU MID MO VALLEY... WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN WARM/MOIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STEADILY STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 05:36:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 00:36:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508120604.j7C644G2011030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120601 SWODY1 SPC AC 120559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GCC RAP PIR 10 SE 9V9 45 ENE BUB LBF SNY DGW GCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG RUT MSV 10 SSE IPT PIT IND DEC CGX MBS 50 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 MLU GGG AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S CZZ DRA 45 N P38 U24 U28 40 NNE 4BL MTJ EGE CAG 10 ENE RKS EVW 30 NNE BKE 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB GTF MLS DIK FAR AXN MKT DBQ HTL 35 E OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA...AND CHANGES TO PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SLOW/MOSTLY MINOR. WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF/ ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY... ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...INTO SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SURGES INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. LEADING FRONTAL SURGE WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH ONTARIO BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF BLOCKING RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG FRONT...WHICH BY PEAK HEATING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND OZARKS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. 30+ KT MEAN FLOW COULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES...ACROSS PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME...ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SURGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM UPPER PATTERN...WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT EAST OF LOW...BENEATH 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO SURFACE COOLING/FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SEEMS TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED BY CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 12:10:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 07:10:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508121238.j7CCckE0027129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121236 SWODY1 SPC AC 121234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GCC 40 E 81V 25 SW PHP 25 N ANW 30 WNW BBW 35 WSW LBF 40 WSW SNY 10 ENE CPR 25 WNW GCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS GFL 30 SSW ALB IPT 20 NNW PIT 35 N IND 25 N DNV CGX MBS 50 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE HVR 45 N MLS DIK FAR AXN MKT DBQ HTL 35 E OSC ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 50 W MLU GGG AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S CZZ DRA 45 ESE U31 55 S EKO DPG 40 SE SLC 10 NE MLD BKE 40 WSW PDT YKM 65 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR ERN WY/WRN NEB/SW SD.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR SE LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA TO WRN NY.... ...WRN AND NRN NY/PA TO NRN INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL MOVE EWD FROM MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO TO WRN QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM WI TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...TO NRN INDIANA/NRN OH AND WRN NY BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI EARLY TODAY...AND NWD ACROSS NRN PA/NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. DESPITE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 60-LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...WRN NEB/SW SD/ERN WY THROUGH LATE EVENING... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ESEWD TO WY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SMALLER SCALE WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL WY MOVES EWD THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE APPROACHING WA/ORE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS MT INTO NE WY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EXPECT THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN WY INTO WRN/NRN NEB AND SRN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 55-60 F ARE PRESENT N OF AN INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NE NM INTO CENTRAL KS. CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE NEB PANHANDLE/ERN WY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR THE NE EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SAME AREA WILL ALSO RESIDE BENEATH 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 16:07:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 11:07:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508121635.j7CGZMXt022034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121629 SWODY1 SPC AC 121628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS GFL 30 SSW ALB IPT 20 NNW PIT 35 N IND 25 N DNV 25 W SBN 25 WSW JXN 10 SSW MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GCC 40 E 81V 25 SW PHP 25 N ANW 30 WNW BBW 35 WSW LBF 40 WSW SNY 10 ENE CPR 25 WNW GCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 WSW DRA 35 SSE U31 55 S EKO DPG 40 SE SLC 10 NE MLD BKE 40 WSW PDT YKM 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE HVR 45 N MLS DIK 15 E JMS 50 W AXN OTG 30 ENE FOD DBQ 30 ESE JVL OSC ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 45 E SHV 40 NNE GGG 15 NE ACT 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THESE STRONGER WIND FIELDS...FROM NORTHERN IL INTO MI AND NY. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY IN SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...NORTHERN OH...AND PARTS OF NY/PA. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ORE. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WY BY EVENING. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH MODERATELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN WY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB/WY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INFLOW FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...FL... MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL SHOW A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MULTICELL CONVECTION LATER TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL COLD TROUGH...INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SUGGESTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED TODAY. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 19:46:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 14:46:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508122014.j7CKEGnq030481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122010 SWODY1 SPC AC 122009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE COD 20 ESE SHR 10 NE RAP 55 WNW VTN 20 WSW MHN 35 NW IML 35 E FCL 20 SSE LAR 55 SW DGW 25 NW RIW 50 ENE COD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ROC 10 SW ALB 20 WSW BDL 25 ENE ISP ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW PSB 15 ENE IND 30 S MTO 20 NW ALN 15 ENE UIN 10 SE MMO 25 WSW JXN 10 SSW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 60 SW LAS 10 N TPH 20 WNW ELY 30 W U24 15 ESE SLC 30 WSW JAC 40 WNW SUN 40 NNE BKE 10 NNE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 30 NNE HLN 65 WSW MLS 45 SW DIK 35 NW HON 25 NE YKN 45 NNE OMA 35 WNW OTM 40 ENE MLI GRR OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WY AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO CENTRAL IL... ...WY / HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY S OF SECONDARY COLD SURGE / WITHIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WY AND PARTS OF SWRN MT. WITH 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WY...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING TROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #1969. ...SWRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY STATES... MODERATE / MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELD EXISTS INVOF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI WSWWD INTO NRN MO / KS...AND EWD INTO PA / NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE EWD INVOF COLD FRONT FROM KS INTO INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS NOW OVER PA / NY SW OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THESE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 04:31:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 23:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508130548.j7D5mqJn011022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130546 SWODY1 SPC AC 130544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JHW 35 SE UCA 15 NE PSM ...CONT... 25 ENE CRP 20 NNW VCT 40 WNW POE 20 ENE MLU 30 WNW DYR 25 SE UNO 40 S HRO 35 SSW PGO 35 SSE SEP 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 SE YUM 10 SE DRA 55 SSW ELY SLC 45 N EVW 35 NNE BPI 30 SE WRL 35 SSW PHP 45 SSW 9V9 35 W OFK 10 NE OMA 40 WSW CID 15 SSW MTC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING PATTERN IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN...AND POLAR LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALREADY DIGGING IN THE LEE OF ALASKA UPPER HIGH CENTER...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED AND ACCELERATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...ROTATES ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS. AND...WITH SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BELT...SEVERE EVENTS SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE...WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY MINOR IN MAGNITUDE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY TODAY... WITH THERMAL LOW TO THE SOUTH BECOMING LIKELY FOCUS FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WITH CAPE POSSIBLY LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTH OF REGION...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION SEEMS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS TOWARD SUNSET. ...EASTERN GULF STATES... WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AS MOIST BOUNDARY DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE... BUT...IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SEEM TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... POCKETS OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SLOW MOVING OR QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. BUT WITH FLOW FIELDS WEAKENING...AND FORCING FOR STORM CLUSTERS UNCERTAIN...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TODAY. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 23:21:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 18:21:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508140039.j7E0dEX0025966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140036 SWODY1 SPC AC 140035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MTO 30 NW IND 40 N DAY 30 WSW ERI 25 S JHW 35 ENE PIT 15 ENE ZZV 30 SSE DAY 45 E BMG MVN 25 NE SLO 15 S MTO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 20 ENE BIH 65 S BIH 40 NE FAT 50 S TVL 20 WSW TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY 20 NW BWI 40 NNE SHD ROA 20 NW SOP FLO CRE ...CONT... 25 ESE GPT LUL CBM 30 N HSV BNA 10 SE OWB 30 ESE MDH UNO FSM ADM FTW TPL 30 SE SAT 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL LAS 40 NE DRA TPH 45 SE U31 10 ENE DPG 15 ESE EVW 25 NNW JAC 55 ESE WEY CPR 10 NW IML 45 W HLC EHA 55 S LBL P28 MHK 30 NNW UIN BEH 35 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW ART 10 NE RUT 40 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH VALLEY.... ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH ASSOCIATED JET CORE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS JUST NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND NOT LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF WEAKENING BELT OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES...EMBEDDED WITHIN MID/UPPER MOIST PLUME ADVECTING AROUND WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SEEMS TO HAVE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO...AT BEST...MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW. ...OHIO VALLEY... AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH/WEST OF LAKE ERIE. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST BELT OF 30-40 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ACCOMPANYING LATTER FEATURE...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 02-03Z. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S... CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 14 04:35:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 23:35:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508140552.j7E5qYCg002006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140550 SWODY1 SPC AC 140548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TBN SLO LUK JKL LOZ BNA DYR JBR 30 WSW UNO TBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE WAL 35 NE NHK AOO PSB 10 SSE GFL 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 10 N SYR 40 E BML 10 E BHB ...CONT... 15 S IPL 40 ENE DAG 15 NNW FAT 35 NE SCK 60 W RNO 35 WNW U31 15 SSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 10 SSW RAP 25 NE AIA 45 NNW LAA 35 SSE LAA 30 SSW GCK 20 SSW HUT 25 ENE MKC 25 NNW LAF 35 E TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OHIO VALLEY.... MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...SOUTH OF ALASKAN BLOCKING HIGH CENTER...WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WELL BEFORE REACHING THE U.S. BORDER. AS A RESULT...BROADENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS DO SUGGEST BROAD WEAK TROUGH...NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SUPPRESS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ...NORTHEAST... MODELS INDICATE WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY MID DAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY PEAK HEATING. ENHANCED FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THIS FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK/NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN HOT/MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DOWNBURSTS...AND FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WEAKENING WESTERLIES MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE WEST...ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND IN PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST RISE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST IMPULSE AND BELT OF WEAK TO MODERATE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ROTATE AROUND PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WHEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT 850-700 MB SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT PEAK WINDS ALONG GUST FRONTS LIKELY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ...SOUTHWEST... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171147.j7HBlujt015183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141247 SWODY1 SPC AC 141245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TBN 15 ENE MVN 10 SSE LUK 10 NW JKL 40 WSW LOZ BNA 10 S DYR 10 ESE JBR 10 SSE UNO 35 SE TBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35 SW DCA 20 S AOO 40 ESE BFD GFL 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 40 ENE DAG 15 NNW FAT 35 NE SCK 60 W RNO 35 WNW U31 15 SSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 10 SSW RAP 25 NE AIA 45 NNW LAA 35 SSE LAA 30 SSW GCK 20 SSW HUT 25 ENE MKC 25 NNW LAF 35 E TOL ...CONT... 30 SW BUF 35 E ART 25 ENE BML 10 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...NRN MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING... A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NRN OH THIS MORNING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /AOA 30 KT/ MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S S OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG/. THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS INTO THE EVENING. ...LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON... A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD TO SRN MO AND CENTAL IL/INDIANA/OH...WHILE REMNANT PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED FARTHER SE ACROSS ERN OK AND FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL ENEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY NEAR AND SE OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD AGAIN EXCEED 2000 J/KG. A PERSISTENT BELT OF 25-30 KT WSWLY FLOW NEAR 700 MB...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171147.j7HBlvj8015217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141556 SWODY1 SPC AC 141554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 40 SW DCA 10 S EKN CRW LOZ BNA 10 E JBR 60 N LIT HRO TBN MVN LUK PIT BGM GFL 10 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 NW TVL 35 WNW U31 20 WSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 25 ESE RAP 60 ENE CDR 45 NNW LAA 25 W CAO 35 NNW AMA 35 SE P28 15 NW SZL 15 NW LAF 35 E TOL ...CONT... 30 SW BUF 35 E ART 25 ENE BML 10 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA/MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES...WITH BAND OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM WI/IL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ENHANCED BY WELL-DEFINED CLOUD EDGE/ EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM SOUTHERN NH INTO SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELIMINATE CAP...LEADING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ...OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OH...SOUTHERN IND...CENTRAL MO. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALSO LIE SOUTH OF MAIN FRONT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG/. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO OH/WV. THESE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELL IN NATURE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... WIDESPREAD MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBlxv1015229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150043 SWODY1 SPC AC 150042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUF BMG LUK 20 E LEX 40 SSW LEX 15 NE HOP 25 NW HOP 25 SSW EVV 30 NW EVV 40 SSW HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ACY ILG 25 SSE CXY 30 NNE CXY 15 S PSF 25 NW ORH BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ECG 25 WSW ECG RDU CLT 35 E AHN 45 ESE MCN 15 NE SSI ...CONT... 35 S MOB 0A8 20 SSW HSV GLH 50 E SHV 30 SW TYR TPL 35 NNE SAT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 WNW TVL 10 SE RNO 15 SW EKO 30 SE ENV 40 ESE SLC 10 S VEL GJT 4FC 35 ENE RWL 20 S SHR 81V RAP AIA 10 NNE AKO LIC RTN ABQ CVS P28 10 S OJC 20 NNW CMH DUJ 45 WNW IPT 20 NNE GFL 40 ESE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...NORTHEAST... CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IS BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND WEAKENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW TURNS EASTWARD...WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DOWNSTREAM...STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF BROAD TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. DESPITE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL PROVIDE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK/LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WIND THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED BY COOLER MARINE AIR ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... WEAK IMPULSE AND BELT OF WEAK TO MODERATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAVE AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALREADY BEEN COOLED/STABILIZED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY 02-03Z. FARTHER WEST...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ONGOING...BUT LINGERING SHEAR AXIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS. ...COLORADO VALLEY... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT...BEFORE THEY DO...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ..KERR.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBlxat015228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151245 SWODY1 SPC AC 151244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC 30 E RBL 35 NNW SVE 60 NW LOL 10 SW BAM 20 E SLC 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 NE RWL 35 NNE CPR 20 W GCC 15 E REJ 20 W RRT ...CONT... 10 E MQT 30 NNE EAU 20 ESE ANW 30 S SNY 15 SE LIC 35 NNW CAO 35 NE AMA 25 SE GAG 15 NE ICT 15 W MKC 35 E IRK 25 NNW BMI 25 WNW FWA 30 ENE MGW 30 ESE CXY 30 S POU 20 ENE HYA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE CA/SRN NV/EXTREME WRN AZ... A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NWD TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT N/NE OF THE LOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE CA...THOUGH THE TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING N THROUGH W OF LAS...THOUGH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FROM THE S SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SRN NV/WRN AZ AND SE CA. ON THE NOSE OF THIS DRY SLOT...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...OZARKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY... A GRADUALLY WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO SAG SWD ACROSS NRN VA/WV/KY...AND THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE FARTHER TO SW ACROSS MO/OK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW APPEAR TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A MULTICELL CLUSTER WITH A FEW DOWNBURSTS CONFINED TO EXTREME NRN AR/SRN MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MCV MOVING OUT OF NE OK. ...NRN PLAINS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE ESEWD OVER ONTARIO WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS ND/NRN MN BY LATER TONIGHT. S OF THIS FRONT...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE RETURNING NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SD...THOUGH THE RICHER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SPREAD ENEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION/EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY ENEWD ACROSS SD...INVOF A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE /NOW OVER NW WY/ COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS COULD THE BLACK HILLS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND COULD OCCUR...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm3eX015277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151941 SWODY1 SPC AC 151939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BNA 40 WSW BNA 20 SW MKL 35 S JBR 35 SW ARG 50 W ARG 25 E UNO 40 N POF MDH 35 W EVV 15 E EVV 20 NE OWB 40 N BWG 10 NNW BNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC 30 NNE RBL 60 N SVE 45 NW WMC 60 NNW ENV 15 E OGD 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 SSW CPR 25 S SHR 35 NE SHR 40 NNE REJ 15 WSW BIS 40 NNW BIS 30 W MOT 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 10 E MQT 25 NNW EAU 20 ESE ANW 15 SE SNY 20 NNW LIC 15 NNW CAO 10 W TCC 15 SW CVS 55 E AMA 50 W END 20 ENE ICT 20 ESE OJC 20 WNW DEC 30 NE MIE LBE 30 ESE CXY 20 N EWR 20 WSW BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO....SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN... ...LWR OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS... GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL EWD ALONG THE OH VLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX WERE MOVING EAST FROM SRN MO ATTM. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WERE INCREASING WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TN AND THE TN VLY. EXPECT SCATTERED PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO POSSIBLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS/INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR INCREASE WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE. REFER TO MCD 1987 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA. ...MID ATLANTIC... SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION AS FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER...FORCING AND SHEAR APPEAR LIMITED SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR/OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS ALONG SEA BREEZES AND LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. A FEW DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL STORM INTENSITY SUBSIDES AFTER SUNSET. ...DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST TO ARKLATEX TO OZARKS... A BROAD AND EXTENSIVE SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR STRETCHES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST WWD AND INLAND ACROSS ERN TX/OK AND AR. NUMEROUS MARGINALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS WERE OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL AT PRESENT APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE LWR SABINE RIVER...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL...AS WELL AS ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE ARKLATEX. ...SRN GREAT BASIN... DIFFLUENT FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FROM THE SRN SIERRA ACROSS SRN NV AND NRN AZ. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...SD... WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN SD APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN SD ATTM. HOWEVER...LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE SPREADS EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS CURRENTLY DEPICTING TCU INCREASING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS GIVEN STORM INITIATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT/TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE TOO GREAT TO SUPPORT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm3Wp015274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141953 SWODY1 SPC AC 141952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 40 SW DCA 15 S EKN CRW 35 WSW LOZ BNA 60 N LIT HRO 10 WSW VIH 30 NE SLO LUK PIT 30 ESE BFD 15 NW ALB 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 20 NNE GFL 40 ESE AUG ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 NW TVL 35 WNW U31 20 WSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 25 ESE REJ 15 NW MHE 45 ENE ANW 15 SE DEN 40 W RTN 30 SSW GNT 30 NW CNM 40 SW END 10 S OJC 15 NW LAF 35 E TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO PA... VERY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION S OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SRN NH WSWWD INTO NWRN PA. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORE VIGOROUS STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...MODERATE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...OH / TN / MID MS VALLEY REGION... MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE FROM SERN MO / AR ENEWD ACROSS THE TN / LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN MO. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LIMITED...MODERATE WSWLY FLOW IN APPROXIMATELY THE 850 TO 600 MB LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH PULSE STORMS -- OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...FL... WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AFFECTING FL ATTM HAS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF THE MORE VIGOROUS SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm2co015268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150552 SWODY1 SPC AC 150551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 30 WNW MER 55 NNW SAC 30 E RBL 35 NNW SVE 60 NW LOL 10 SW BAM 20 E SLC 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 NE RWL 35 NNE CPR 20 W GCC 15 E REJ 20 W RRT ...CONT... 10 E MQT 30 NNE EAU 20 ESE ANW 30 S SNY 15 SE LIC 35 NNW CAO 35 NE AMA 25 SE GAG 15 NE ICT 15 W MKC 35 E IRK 25 NNW BMI 25 WNW FWA 30 ENE MGW 30 ESE CXY 15 SSE POU BOS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO ...AND INTERACTION WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS SURFACE FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY...IN WEAKLY SHEARED...BUT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ELSEWHERE...CLOSED LOW/TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/COLORADO VALLEY REGION. ...MID SOUTH/EASTERN GULF STATES... STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY WEAK WAVE ALONG FRONT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH... FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THIS IS WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED SOUTH/EAST OF LINGERING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...PROGGED SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST EAST OF HIGH CENTER...FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS NEAR STRONGEST CELLS. ...LEE OF SRN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD ALSO HEAT STRONGLY TODAY. STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHERE FORCING MAY BE PROVIDED AS EARLY AS MID DAY BY TAIL END OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... EXIT REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY. LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTION PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF HEATING/MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING...IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm3kB015271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151618 SWODY1 SPC AC 151616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ARG 25 NW POF 20 SE MDH HOP MKL 30 NNW MEM 10 WNW ARG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MQT 25 NNW EAU 20 ESE ANW 15 SE SNY 20 NNW LIC 15 NNW CAO 10 W TCC 15 SW CVS 55 E AMA 50 W END 20 ENE ICT 20 ESE OJC 20 WNW DEC 30 NE MIE LBE 30 ESE CXY 20 N EWR 20 WSW BID ...CONT... 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC 30 NNE RBL 60 N SVE 45 NW WMC 60 NNW ENV 15 E OGD 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 SSW CPR 25 S SHR 35 NE SHR 40 NNE REJ 15 WSW BIS 40 NNW BIS 30 W MOT 60 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...MID ATLANTIC REGION TO MID MS VALLEY... WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM VA...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...INTO OK. STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NJ/VA/NC WESTWARD INTO MO/AR. ...MO/AR/IL/KY/TN... ONE AREA WITH AN APPARENT ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MO/NORTHWEST AR MAY TRACK EASTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AR/SOUTHEAST MO...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN. THIS AREA IS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IN REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WHERE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAP. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ALONG WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CA/NV/AZ... WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...WITH POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CA/NV MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER SOUTH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:35:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:35:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171352.j7HDqpgp003857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171246 SWODY1 SPC AC 171244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 10 NNW HIB 45 SE BJI 55 SSW BJI 50 W AXN 50 NE ATY 25 E BKX 25 SW SPW 35 NW LWD MKC 15 WSW OJC 35 N PNC 50 N GAG 25 N LBL 15 WSW IML 35 WNW PHP 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 SW TRM 15 NE TRM 25 ESE EED 55 SW GCN 60 SE PGA 10 N GNT 10 E ABQ 30 E ALM 20 SW GDP 25 ESE GDP 30 WNW HOB 25 SSW DHT 40 E LAA 35 N LAA 45 WNW ALS 45 SSE MTJ 40 WSW MTJ 25 NNE 4HV MLF 65 ESE TPH 55 E BIH 40 SSW BIH 30 NE FAT 30 NE MER 25 WNW TVL LOL 25 WNW BAM 15 NNW OWY 50 WNW TWF 40 E BOI 45 NNE BOI 70 SSE BNO 30 ESE 4LW 30 WNW LMT 60 NNE MFR 45 NE RDM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE EAT 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 NNE MQT 15 E IMT 30 NE MSN 25 N MMO 20 WNW MIE 20 SW PKB 10 SSE SSU 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 25 E COT 45 NW COT 25 NE DRT 55 ENE P07 20 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.... ...KS/NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD OVER WRN KS/NEB IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS OVER UT/WY. THIS LEAD WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM OK/KS TOWARD NEB. A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL KS/NEB WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UT/WY MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENCOUNTERS THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO AN EWD/SEWD MOVING MCS BY TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SWD FROM NEB INTO KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ...DAKOTAS/NRN MN TODAY... ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHILE THE STORMS ACROSS NW MN APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE DAY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW INVOF THE S CENTRAL ND/N CENTRAL SD BORDER...AND ALONG THE NE-SW BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ND THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY CLOUDS/RAINFALL THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WEAKENING MID-UPPER FLOW/SHEAR WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL COULD OCCUR TODAY WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONGER ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ...MT/SE ID THIS AFTERNOON TO WRN ND TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ESEWD FROM SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA TOWARD MT/NRN ID BY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO SE ID. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD ERN MT TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY WRN ND. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW /ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LEAD WAVE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS/ SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 15:12:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 10:12:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171629.j7HGTWJp001146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171621 SWODY1 SPC AC 171620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 10 NNW HIB 45 SE BJI 55 SSW BJI 50 W AXN 50 NE ATY 25 E BKX 20 SW FRM 35 NW LWD FNB 25 N SLN 45 W HUT 40 SE DDC 20 NE LBL 15 WSW IML 35 WNW PHP 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 15 SSE PHX 10 S PRC 30 S GCN 10 WNW GCN 40 ESE SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 N OWY 60 N BOI 20 E ALW 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 15 E MFE 40 NW HDO 35 S SJT 70 NE P07 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OSC 10 N LAN FWA 30 NNW LUK 15 SW BLF 20 SE DAN 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE STRONGER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM KS/CO INTO MT/ND. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINTAINING A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND YIELDING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...ND/MN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. ...SD/NEB... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WY IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP WEAKEN CAP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND CENTRAL NEB. ...KS/OK... FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KS/OK SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WESTERN KS...AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHWEST OK. HOWEVER...THESE RISK AREAS MAY BE UPDATED AT 20Z AS SHORT-TERM TRENDS ARE MONITORED. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS FROM MS-SC...AND AHEAD OF WEAK MCV OVER EASTERN TN. GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 18:58:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 13:58:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508172015.j7HKFaZn002810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 172011 SWODY1 SPC AC 172009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELO 20 E HIB 35 SW HIB BRD 35 WSW STC 25 SSE RWF 20 WNW FOD P35 20 NE TOP 20 NE SLN 20 SW HUT 45 SSW P28 30 SSE LBL 55 ENE CDR 50 SE REJ DIK DVL 35 ESE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CHS 35 ENE SAV 30 WNW SAV 45 S AGS 30 WSW AGS 40 ESE AHN 35 ESE AND 35 N CAE 15 SSE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E MFE 40 NW HDO 35 S SJT 70 NE P07 15 S P07 ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 15 SSE PHX 10 S PRC 30 S GCN 10 WNW GCN 40 ESE SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 N OWY 60 N BOI 20 E ALW 45 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OSC 10 N LAN FWA 30 NNW LUK 15 SW BLF 20 SE DAN 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SC...ERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED VORTEX ALOFT OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN MT AND ID BY END OF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL EWD EJECTION OF TROUGH NOW INDICATED OVER BLACK HILLS REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- BINARY OVER W-CENTRAL ND AND WRN SD AS OF 19Z - IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PLUNGES SEWD FROM NERN MT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE ERN NC WWD ACROSS NRN SC AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH 18/12Z. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS DAKOTAS AND NWRN MN WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING...AS APCHG NRN PLAINS TROUGH AIDS DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. REF SPC WW 27 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO OVER THIS REGION. FARTHER S...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS WRN OK. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT EACH GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WITH DISTANCE FROM BLACK HILLS TROUGH. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOCUS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVC ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD OVER MO VALLEY INTO NWRN MO/NERN KS. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY OVER NEB AND/OR DAKOTAS...AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN AREA. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION FROM SRN AR AND MS EWD TO ERN NC/SERN NC...ALONG AN ASSORTMENT OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. PRIMARY BOUNDARY LAYER FOCI MAY BE NEAR COLD FRONT...INVOF WHICH SEVERAL MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SC...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SC AND OUTFLOWS FM CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVECTION FARTHER W. WITHIN BROADER 5% PROBABILITY AREA...RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS SC...S OF PRESENT ACTIVITY...AS FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZE. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST AND INTENSELY HEATED AT SFC...WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F YIELDING MLCAPES COMMONLY 3000-5000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOCALIZED 20-30 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT...DESPITE HIGH MIXING RATIOS...STILL MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL/CONCENTRATED NATURE OF SC SUB-REGIME AND DENSITY OF POTENTIAL DOWNBURST EVENTS...SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL RISK HAVE BEEN INSERTED. ...NRN MN... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- PRIMARILY N OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER BOUNDARY WATERS REGION...FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. 25-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. ...NRN ROCKIES... DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD FROM BITTERROOTS...AHEAD OF STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH IN PACIFIC NW. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUST AND HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 23:51:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 18:51:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508180109.j7I19Q9J006462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180107 SWODY1 SPC AC 180105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S INL 10 SSW HIB 20 ENE BRD 30 SSW BRD 45 SW STC 15 ENE OTG 45 SSW SPW 50 W LWD 35 WSW OJC 35 NNW BVO 40 ESE P28 35 WNW P28 10 NE HLC MCK LBF 15 SE VTN 45 WSW 9V9 15 NE PIR 10 SE MBG 60 NE MBG 20 SSE JMS 35 W FAR 30 SSW GFK 10 NNE GFK 25 S RRT 45 S INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 15 SW PHX 20 ENE PRC GCN 35 E SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 SSW BOI 60 NNE BOI 20 NNE PDT 45 ESE EPH 55 NW FCA ...CONT... MFE 40 NW NIR 10 NE TPL BWD 45 WSW SJT 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PLN 20 SE MBS 15 SSW JXN BEH 30 NE VOK 20 NNW LSE 50 SW LSE 30 NNE PIA 40 W LUK 35 NE BKW 45 NNW RWI 10 WNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN MN... EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL SD NEWD THROUGH SERN ND AND INTO NRN MN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL AND SWRN NEB. THE WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE PRIMARY THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS NWD THROUGH ERN NEB AND SERN SD. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH SD. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN. WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING EWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MN. THEREFORE...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO MN OVERNIGHT. ...ERN NEB AND ERN KS THROUGH WRN IA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH W CNTRL NEB SWD THROUGH WRN KS. E OF THIS FEATURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL AND E CNTRL KS. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS IS PROMOTING STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN FARTHER NWD. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER KS AND NEB. THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM ERN ND/NERN KS INTO WRN IA. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MN WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH ERN MT AND SPREADING INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 04:46:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 23:46:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508180604.j7I64C9g008841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180601 SWODY1 SPC AC 180600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MTW 40 NE FWA 25 S DAY 35 E OWB 35 NE PAH 45 SW STL 30 WSW COU 20 SSE OJC 15 NNE TOP 35 N FNB 50 W DSM 25 NNW FOD 10 SE MKT 20 WSW EAU 10 ENE AUW 30 SSE MTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N PHP 45 WNW VTN 45 WNW BFF 25 NW DGW 10 NE GCC REJ 65 N PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 NNW ALB 20 SW ISP ...CONT... 15 W SBA 20 NE SMX 50 ENE PRB 35 SW BIH 45 W TPH 15 SSW U31 20 SE BAM 30 NNE BAM 35 W WMC 60 WNW WMC 50 E 4LW 40 SSE BNO 45 WNW BOI 50 SSW S80 20 SSE S06 15 WNW FCA 35 W CTB 50 SW HVR 75 E LWT 40 N MLS 45 NNW DIK 20 WSW MOT 60 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CEZ 20 NW SAF 25 SE ALS 25 NW TAD 30 ENE TAD 50 W EHA 35 NW LBL 25 NNE GCK 35 SSE MCK 25 WNW MCK 30 E AKO 30 W LIC 40 S 4FC EGE PUC 50 SW PUC 20 SSW 4BL 30 SW CEZ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO MN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH IA AND INTO NERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD THROUGH CNTRL WI. FARTHER W...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OR REINFORCEMENT OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SRN MN THROUGH CNTRL WI E OF THE SURFACE LOW. S OF THE E-W BOUNDARY AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR...BELOW INCREASING LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY AND OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE DAY. A 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM IA EWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL ABOVE THE MODEST 20-30 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S AND SW ALONG AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. ...ERN WY THROUGH WRN SD... NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER PARTS OF ERN WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN WY AND WRN SD WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO 40 KT WLY AT 6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 11:18:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 06:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508181235.j7ICZfZN032664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181233 SWODY1 SPC AC 181231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FNB 15 NE FNB 35 ENE LWD 25 E DSM 35 E FOD 20 NE MCW 25 S LSE 25 N MSN 15 N BEH 20 SSW AZO 30 NE FWA 35 NW LUK 25 WSW SDF 30 E PAH 20 W PAH 30 SE VIH 25 WSW SZL 25 E TOP 25 S FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW 45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ART 35 NE BGM 15 ESE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG ...CONT... DRT 30 ENE JCT 35 SSW PRX 15 NNE PGO 10 NE BVO END 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 W SBA 20 NE SMX 50 ENE PRB 35 SW BIH 45 W TPH 25 SW U31 35 NNW U31 20 SSE WMC 35 W WMC 60 WNW WMC 50 E 4LW 40 SSE BNO 45 WNW BOI 50 SSW S80 20 SSE S06 15 WNW FCA 35 W CTB 50 SW HVR 75 E LWT 40 N MLS 20 NE SDY 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE COS 30 NNE TAD 50 W EHA 25 N EHA 20 NNW GCK 35 SSE MCK 25 WNW MCK 30 E AKO 30 NNE COS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA/NRN MO TO WRN WI AND IL/INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD.... ...IA/MO TO IL/INDIANA TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN IA/SWRN MN THIS MORNING WILL EJECT EWD TO LOWER MI BY TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES CONTINUES EWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY COMPLEX FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS. OF GREATEST CONSEQUENCE IS A LOW ACROSS NW IA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD AND SWWD TO CENTRAL KS...AND A WARM EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND THEN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ERN KY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-UPPER WLY FLOW OF 40-60 KT AND SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS SWRN WI/ERN IA MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL...WHILE THE ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL MO SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHING NE IA...WITH INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR E OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE LATE EVENING. FARTHER SW...THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN MO AREA SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...SD/ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/ERN WY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY... WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD EWD AS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SD TONIGHT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ERN WY/WRN SD ACTIVITY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT IN SD WITH ELEVATED STORMS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 15:06:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 10:06:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508181623.j7IGNobP028800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181614 SWODY1 SPC AC 181612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BIE 15 NE BIE 35 ENE LWD 40 W CID 20 NW ALO 40 SSE RST 25 S LSE 25 N MSN 25 SW LAN 30 NE FWA 35 NW LUK 35 S BMG 15 E MVN 35 SW BLV 20 N TBN 25 WSW SZL 15 E MHK 30 S BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW 45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 WNW AUS 45 ESE DAL 20 NW PGO TUL 20 NW OKC 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 30 WNW TRM 30 NE RAL 20 WNW DAG 40 NW DRA 40 SE TPH TPH 55 NW TPH 20 WSW NFL 40 ENE SVE 75 SE 4LW 85 SSE BNO BOI 70 NNW SUN 55 SSW MSO 25 WSW FCA 45 NE FCA 50 SW HVR 55 NE BIL 35 N 4BQ 20 SW DIK 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 35 NNW MSV 15 SSE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX 20 WNW LHX 20 SE TAD 40 ESE RTN 15 E CAO 25 N EHA 50 E LAA 40 S GLD 40 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC 35 N LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY AND SD... ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WI/IL AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CHI AREA AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE AND PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS FARTHER WEST ACROSS EASTERN IA IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF IA BEFORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL. ...SD/WY... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHWEST WY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ATOP COOL/MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 18:43:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 13:43:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508182001.j7IK1JEH021325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181958 SWODY1 SPC AC 181957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BIE 15 NE BIE 35 ENE LWD 40 W CID 20 N ALO 20 S EAU 10 NE AUW 15 SE TVC 15 E MBS 15 NNW MFD 50 SE DAY 15 E BMG 35 S MTO ALN 10 SE COU SZL 15 E MHK 30 S BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW 45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MSS 35 NNW MSV 15 SSE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG ...CONT... DRT 55 WNW AUS 45 ESE DAL 20 NW PGO TUL 20 NW OKC 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 30 WNW TRM 30 NE RAL 20 WNW DAG 40 NW DRA 40 SE TPH TPH 55 NW TPH 30 SE LOL 45 WSW WMC 60 N WMC 55 NW OWY 25 ESE BOI 60 SSW 27U 55 SSW MSO 25 WSW FCA 45 NE FCA 50 SW HVR 75 WNW MLS 30 S GDV 40 NNW DIK 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX 20 WNW LHX 20 SE TAD 40 ESE RTN 15 E CAO 25 N EHA 50 E LAA 40 S GLD 40 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC 35 N LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY AND WRN/CNTRL SD... ...UPPER MIDWEST EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER/CNTRL OH VALLEY... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN 500 MB WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH 35-45 KT WLY FLOW FROM ERN NEB EWD INTO WRN IND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN MN/W-CNTRL WI WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ESEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN OH AND CNTRL PA. TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NERN KS...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. EXPECT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ESEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AIR MASS COUPLED WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST FROM NEAR SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE AS FAR WWD AS NRN MO/NERN MO. BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF WRN GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL STORMS IN PROGRESS FROM WRN KY INTO SRN OH HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ON THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ...WY/SD... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ND/SD THEN WWD INTO CNTRL WY. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN SD INTO ERN WY WITH ATMOSPHERE NOW WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS WY AND S-CNTRL MT. INCREASING WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF FRONT INTO CNTRL SD. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL KS INTO NERN TX PNHDL... AIR MASS ALONG WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS HEATED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED CBL AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. CURRENT GRENADA CO AND HAVILAND KS PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY 30 KT WINDS AT 6 KM AGL. DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OBSERVED OVER THE NERN TX PNHDL AND LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 23:54:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 18:54:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508190111.j7J1Bh1r028249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190108 SWODY1 SPC AC 190107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MHK BIE 20 NE LWD 35 SSE CID 40 W JVL 40 SSE CWA 20 NNW GRB 30 S TVC MBS 30 ENE FDY 35 WSW CMH 40 WSW LUK 45 NNE EVV 20 ESE BLV JEF 25 S TOP 15 ESE MHK 40 NNW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DRT 55 W AUS 25 E ACT 10 SE TXK 20 ENE FYV 40 WSW JLN 20 WSW END 60 SSW CDS 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... CZZ TRM 55 ESE DAG 35 SW LAS 15 NNE DRA 30 SE TPH 20 NNW TPH 45 SSW U31 30 SE LOL 30 WSW WMC 60 N WMC 60 NW OWY 25 ESE BOI 60 SSW 27U 55 SSW MSO 15 E 3TH 20 SSW CTB 50 ENE GTF 25 WNW BIL 45 WNW REJ 35 NW BIS 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 30 SSW UCA 35 SSE IPT 15 N DCA 30 WNW ORF 30 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LIC LHX 30 E TAD 25 NW CAO 30 ENE CAO 20 NE EHA 25 NNW GCK 50 WSW HLC 20 NNW GLD 40 ENE LIC 40 S LIC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEYS... ...GREAT LAKES THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL WI ESEWD THROUGH SERN WI AND INTO SRN LOWER MI. A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN IA...EXTREME NRN MO INTO NERN KS. A SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM NRN IL NWD INTO SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM NERN KS THROUGH IL AND SERN WI WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL FARTHER EWD INTO MI...IND AND OH WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS MAINLY OVER SERN WI AND WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER NERN IL. STORMS OVER SERN WI ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ENHANCED WHERE STORMS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LCL HEIGHTS...0-1 KM LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT EXIST. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT FARTHER EAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIMITING EFFECTS OF THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER SWWD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN KS...NRN MO INTO IL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE VEERED TO SWLY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HAIL SIZE MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -5C. OVERNIGHT...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY. STORMS OVER MO AND KS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THOUGH SOME BACKBUILDING WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS MAY BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING ONCE A COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED WITH AN INCREASING ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD EWD. ...NWRN NEB THROUGH SD... THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT IN ERN SD. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER W OVER WRN NEB INTO ERN WY AND WRN SD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:51:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:51:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508190608.j7J68vF2025472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190607 SWODY1 SPC AC 190605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 20 SSE CRW 40 SSE MVN 35 NE CNU 10 SE SLN 50 SSW HSI 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 WNW CGX 40 S SBN 30 E FWA 15 SSE ARB 40 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 10 SW MPV PSF TTN 35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN RAL 20 WSW PMD 25 WNW EDW 50 W DRA 55 N DRA 30 ESE ELY 15 S MLD 40 SW COD 30 ENE BIL 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ABQ 20 NW TCC 35 NNW EHA 20 NNW GLD 40 NE LIC 20 WSW LIC 55 W PUB 45 WSW ALS 10 SW FMN 25 NE GUP 50 NW ONM 35 SE ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 40 NNW ESF 45 NW GWO 15 N JBR 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 35 E CSM 40 SSW CDS 30 SSE MAF 35 W SJT 45 WSW BWD 30 WNW TPL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCLUDE AND SHIFT EWD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN NY AND PA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER W THE OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH SD WILL SHIFT EWD AND EXTEND SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NEB. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NEB AND INTO ERN CO. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF IA AND INTO NRN IL. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MS VALLEY... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SERVE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. OWING TO PROXIMITY OF GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA AS WELL AS FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ...NERN U.S.... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF PA...THE MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NY DURING THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR W OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO PROVIDED STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 11:42:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 06:42:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508191259.j7JCxjr1015996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191257 SWODY1 SPC AC 191255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ROC 35 E BFD 30 ESE LBE 25 W MGW 20 NNW ZZV 15 SE CLE 70 E MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 10 NE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX 25 E MDH 20 E CNU ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 WSW HLC 35 SE LBF 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 WNW CGX 35 SE SBN 15 E JXN 45 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN RAL 20 WSW PMD 25 WNW EDW 50 W DRA 55 N DRA 30 ESE ELY 15 S MLD 40 SW COD 30 ENE BIL 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 40 NNW ESF 45 NW GWO 15 N JBR 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 35 E CSM 40 SSW CDS 30 SSE MAF 35 W SJT 45 WSW BWD 30 WNW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ABQ 25 SE LVS 45 N CAO 30 ESE LIC LIC 20 NE COS 55 W PUB 45 WSW ALS 10 SW FMN 25 NE GUP 50 NW ONM 35 SE ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NNE LCI 25 NW GON TTN 35 SSW ACY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRT LKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD SWATH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY EWD TO THE CNTRL/NRN APLCNS... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR MID AUGUST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS AND STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY. THE SURFACE LOW WITH LEAD IMPULSE...NOW NEAR APN...SHOULD OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES E INTO ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE NE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NY /PA. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE LWR OH VLY...BUT EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION LIKELY WILL BE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT MCSS OVER REGION. FARTHER W...MCS OUTFLOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID/LWR MO VLYS. THIS MAY LEAVE TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD REGION...ONE ALONG COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SE SD/NRN/ERN NEB...AND ANOTHER INVOF MCS OUTFLOW OVER NRN PARTS OF KS/MO. ...LWR GRT LKS... TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT CROSSING ERN OH/WRN PA AND WRN NY. COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S/ AND 40+ KT DEEP WNW SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. COUPLED WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF WARM FRONT AND LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH REGIONAL PWS...SETUP MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL FAVOR STORM MOTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY INTO THE COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...PRESENT AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT A SUFFICIENTLY WIDE CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT CONTINUE E AND WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. ...MID/LWR MO VLY TO CNTRL PLNS/MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER PARTS OF SE SD...ERN AND SRN NEB...WRN IA...NRN AND ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO LATER TODAY. THE NRN PART OF THIS REGION WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR AS BAND OF 40+ KT WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH SPREADS TOWARD THE MID MS VLY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM CONCERNING WHERE THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED STORMS WILL FORM. BUT PRIND ARE THAT CONVERGENCE INVOF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH INTERSECTION...AND EXPECTED LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY...MAY YIELD A FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER NE NEB/SE SD. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY MAY BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL KS ESE INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS AND INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS THAT EXTEND AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL INTO THE NIGHT E INTO THE MID MS VLY. PARTS OF THE MID/LWR MO VLY REGION MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BECOME MORE APPARENT. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 15:32:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 10:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508191649.j7JGnvAx010042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191647 SWODY1 SPC AC 191646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ROC 35 E BFD 30 ESE LBE 25 W MGW 20 NNW ZZV 15 SE CLE 70 E MTC. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CNK 15 WSW OLU 25 NNE SUX 30 ESE SPW 30 NNW CID 25 SW MLI 10 WNW UIN 50 N SZL 30 N TOP 25 NNE CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 10 NE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX 25 E MDH 20 E CNU ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 WSW HLC 35 SE LBF 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 SSE RFD 15 SE FWA 10 WSW DTW 55 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 50 SSW COD 15 SE BIL 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 45 E ESC 30 WSW MBL 20 WNW MKG 35 NNE BEH 15 N AZO 20 ESE LAN 10 NE MBS 30 SW APN 30 E PLN 40 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 NNW BML 20 NNW LCI 25 WNW GON JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 55 NW ESF 35 NW GLH 15 SSW ARG 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 40 W OKC 35 ESE CDS 35 NE BGS 35 W SJT 30 WNW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABQ 25 ESE LVS 35 NNW CAO 25 NNE TAD 20 E ALS 45 WSW ALS 25 SSE FMN 35 NE GUP 10 SE GNT ABQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN OH..WRN PA..WRN NY..NRN WV PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB..NERN KS..IA..NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH COMPACT UPPER LOW APPROACHING NRN LAKE HURON EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPSTREAM LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE MANITOBA/ND/NRN MN BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NEARING LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD FROM THE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT CONTINUES WWD/NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO SRN MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LAKE HURON LOW INTO CENTRAL VA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD. A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY... CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN ACROSS OH WHERE STRONG HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PARTS OF NY AND PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F COUPLED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE HURON UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS LOWER MI/SWRN ONTARIO MAY BE STRONGEST OVER CANADA...HOWEVER WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER DEFINED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH 12Z ETA GENERATING LITTLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WHEREAS 15Z RUC AND 09Z SREF GUIDANCE ETAKF AND RSM MEMBERS INDICATE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WITH CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ELEVATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING ATTM OVER PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG/NORTH OF AN EAST/WEST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD ERN NEB AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG. ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB..NERN KS..IA..AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR CONSIDERABLE SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF SRN MN. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 18:33:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 13:33:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508191951.j7JJpGkm013020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191946 SWODY1 SPC AC 191945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SYR 35 NNW ELM 45 E BFD 20 NE DUJ 20 SSE FKL 20 E YNG 25 NW ERI. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FNB 15 E OMA 40 WSW SPW 25 NNE SPW 35 E FRM 20 WNW DBQ MLI 10 ENE BRL 30 SW BRL 10 E IRK 35 WSW IRK 35 NE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MSS 25 E IPT 20 WSW MRB 15 ESE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX 25 E MDH 25 ENE CNU ICT 25 SW DDC 55 WSW HLC 35 W EAR 30 ENE BUB 25 W FSD 30 SE AXN 45 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 SSE RFD 30 NE FWA 10 WSW DTW 55 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 NNW LCI 25 WNW GON JFK ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 45 E ESC 30 WSW MBL 20 WNW MKG 35 NNE BEH 15 N AZO 20 ESE LAN 10 NE MBS 30 SW APN 30 E PLN 40 SE ANJ ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 50 SSW COD 15 SE BIL 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 55 NW ESF 35 NW GLH 15 SSW ARG 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 40 W OKC 35 ESE CDS 35 NE BGS 35 W SJT 30 WNW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABQ 25 ESE LVS 35 NNW CAO 25 NNE TAD 20 E ALS 45 WSW ALS 25 SSE FMN 35 NE GUP 10 SE GNT ABQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN PA AND WRN NY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER IA AND PART OF NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL PA/NY... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW ACROSS ERN LOWER MI AND LAKES ERIE INTO ONTARIO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER CNTRL LAKE HURON WITH A WAVY WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD INTO CNTRL LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN PA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W...A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE DEMARKED TRANSITION FROM SSWLY WINDS OVER ERN OH TO SSELY OVER FAR WRN PA. FARTHER TO THE W...COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SURFACE LOW SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH...NRN IND INTO NRN IL. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SWRN ONTARIO NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO BUILD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS HEATING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDS IN ELIMINATION OF REMAINING CAP. A NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER SHEAR BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY/PA THIS EVENING BEFORE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTIVELY STABILIZES BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN NEB OWING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT PER 18Z TOP AND OMA SOUNDINGS. WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH S-CNTRL CANADA UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE N OF REGION...MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN/CNTRL IA...ALONG WITH MERGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS....SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION/GROWTH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOP TO GBD TO NEAR DDC. HERE...STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT SWLY WINDS AT 6 KM AGL WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR EVEN POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 2033 WHICH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. FARTHER TO THE N...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB. SOME VERTICAL CUMULUS GROWTH IS BEING OBSERVED OVER CNTRL MN...AND AS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS OVERSPREADING FRONTAL ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HERE TOO...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY BE MORE THE PREFERRED CONVECTIVE MODE. MERGER OF COLD FRONTAL STORMS AND NRN KS/SRN NEB CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY OCCUR OVER IA SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING. HERE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS /AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO/ WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 23:47:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 18:47:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508200104.j7K14dO2013148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200102 SWODY1 SPC AC 200101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HTS 30 NNW 5I3 20 ESE JKL 40 SSW SDF 20 ESE VIH CNU 30 WSW P28 20 ESE DDC 45 SW RSL 25 W MHK 15 W FNB 60 SE OMA 20 ESE FOD 40 SE MKT 35 S MSP 35 WSW EAU 25 SSE EAU 15 W JVL 15 SW CGX 40 NNE LAF 25 SSW DAY 30 NNW HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE PBG 50 ENE BGM 30 SSE CXY 20 SW ILM ...CONT... 75 E MQT 45 W PLN 30 SSW MBL 10 SSE BEH 30 NNW MIE 25 SE UNI 10 NNW HLG 40 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSE DRT 35 SSE BWD 35 S ELD 10 S 0A8 45 ENE RMG 45 NE CSV 15 SW PAH 10 SSW UMN 40 SW END 40 ESE PVW MAF 20 SW P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 45 NNW SHR 15 N REJ 25 S PIR 25 NW MHE 25 S BRD 20 NNW ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SRN OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND ERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN THROUGH ERN KS AND INTO NRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE SWLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT FROM KS INTO MO...AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER NERN KS HAVE DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL SIZE. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME OVER SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...WRN NY THROUGH WRN PA... NARROW SPACE AND TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WRN NY AND WRN PA APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. SOME OVERLAP OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PERSISTS IN VICINITY OF A N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM WRN NY INTO WRN PA. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER...BUT WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVELY STABLE. ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OVER NWRN PA AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. ...NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB AND WRN KS... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 04:19:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 23:19:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508200536.j7K5am7x026547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200534 SWODY1 SPC AC 200532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 15 WSW BGM 25 N HGR 10 NNE BKW 30 S JKL 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 30 E CSM 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 25 N LAA 45 ENE DDC 35 NNE CNU 35 ENE COU 15 NW CMI 15 S BEH 45 W MBS APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 15 NW BLH 15 N NID 55 NE MER 40 WNW TVL 30 NW RNO 40 WNW U31 55 S EKO 30 WNW DPG 30 NW EVW 35 SE RWL 55 NW CDR 50 ENE ANW 25 SE YKN 10 WSW MCW 20 NNE LSE 45 SW IWD 25 W HIB RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NNW BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO SATURDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN CANADA WITH TRAILING FRONT MOVING EWD TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH WI...IA AND NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT FROM OK AND KS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ...OH VALLEY AREA... SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE DICTATED LARGELY BY EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS. LARGE MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD INTO KS. RECENT RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS AN MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION OVER NRN MO. A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL. TIMING THE NRN MO ACTIVITY PUTS IT OVER NRN IND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AND STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER IL AND IND EWD INTO OH...SRN LOWER MI AND WRN PA DURING THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AND S OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. THE STRONGEST WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED FROM LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF IND...OH AND PA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...PROVIDED THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WHICH WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. HEIGHTS RISE AND MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND THESE COULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS TO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB...IA AND NERN CO WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 15:17:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 10:17:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508201634.j7KGYlWj022843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201622 SWODY1 SPC AC 201620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 15 WSW BGM 25 N HGR 10 NNE BKW 30 S JKL 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 20 NE LTS 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 20 NNE LAA 45 ENE DDC 35 NNE CNU 35 ENE COU 15 NW CMI 15 S BEH 45 W MBS APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 35 SSE AUS CLL 50 ENE ACT 75 NE P07 95 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 WSW YUM 10 NW BLH 65 WNW EED 10 WSW DRA 45 ESE TPH 55 SSE EKO 40 SSE ENV EVW 45 ESE RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 25 NNE FOD 25 WNW DBQ 15 WNW OSH 15 SE IMT 10 WNW CMX ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 SSE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS SHORT WAVE RIDGE INDICATED OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA...AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... CONTINUING WSWWD INTO SRN KS REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM NRN OH INTO SERN IL. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... WARM AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT FROM SERN IL INTO SWRN OH ATTM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 85-90F RANGE AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. RUC HOURLY DATA INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS INDIANA AND OH...AND CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING IN VERTICAL EXTENT ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GUS TO SLO IN INDIANA/SRN IL. THIS MAY SERVE AS PRECURSOR TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW ABOVE THE PBL IS MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 40KT WINDS EVIDENT ON IND AND CLE VAD PROFILES IN THE 3-4 KM LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD WITH A THREAT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA..OH..NRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PARTS OF PA AND NY AND NWRN WV THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...KS/OK INTO MO/NRN AR... LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO NERN OK THEN WWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND CONTINUED HEATING /ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN OK/WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA IS GENERALLY WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 18:28:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 13:28:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508201946.j7KJknXI026773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201943 SWODY1 SPC AC 201942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 15 WSW BGM HGR 15 NW SSU 50 SE LOZ 30 SW DYR 15 SW FSM FSI 35 NW CDS 35 SSE DHT 40 W EHA 50 N EHA 35 WNW P28 30 WSW TBN 25 SW STL 20 N HUF 15 S BEH 50 SW HTL 25 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW YUM 10 NW BLH 65 WNW EED 10 WSW DRA 45 ESE TPH 55 SSE EKO 40 SSE ENV EVW 45 ESE RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 25 NNE FOD 25 WNW DBQ 15 WNW OSH 15 SE IMT 10 WNW CMX ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 SSE EWB ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 35 SSE AUS CLL 50 ENE ACT 75 NE P07 95 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM CNTRL NY/PA SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM SRN IL NEWD INTO OH AND WRN PA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ DESPITE RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE SITUATED WITHIN A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING OR LEWP LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND SWATH. EXPECT THIS DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA TONIGHT...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILITY. ...SRN MO/NRN AR INTO SRN KS AND OK... TSTMS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ATTENDANT TO LARGE-SCALE TROUGH REMAIN N OF REGION WITH GENERALLY SWLY-WSWLY 10-20 KT WINDS AT 500 MB BEING OBSERVED INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ...ERN CO... TSTMS ARE INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN CO AND NERN NM /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LOCAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NEB/WRN IA... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA. IT APPEARS THAT DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH IMPLIED MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNSUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL LARGELY HAVE TO INITIATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 23:45:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 18:45:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508210102.j7L12LC8024993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210059 SWODY1 SPC AC 210058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE AOO 25 WNW HGR 50 WSW MRB 10 WSW BKW 25 SE JKL 35 SSE LEX 25 ESE UNI YNG 15 E FKL 20 NNE AOO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 N PHX 30 NNW PRC 50 ENE LAS 60 N P38 15 S U24 35 SSW SLC EVW 45 ESE RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 10 SE FOD 10 NE BRL 50 SSW BMG 10 NW DAY 50 ESE MTC ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK ISP ...CONT... BPT 20 SSE GGG 20 SE MWL 20 ENE BGS 45 SSE MAF 65 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN PA / WV / ERN KY... ...SWRN PA / WV / ERN KY... MODERATELY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER WSWWD ALONG FRONT FROM KY WWWD INTO OK...GREATER INSTABILITY PERSISTS...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. THEREFORE...THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 04:43:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 23:43:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508210601.j7L619Dv005331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210558 SWODY1 SPC AC 210557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 50 NW GBN 25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF 40 WNW BIL 45 E 81V 40 WNW OFK 35 SSE OMA 25 NNE MKC 20 SW JEF 25 W MDH 40 ENE EVV 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE UPPER PATTERN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SWD AND WEAKENING WITH TIME INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD LINGER/DRIFT NWD AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK S OF TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD HINDER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FORECAST. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER S INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR...BUT WEAKENING FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMES WITHIN MODESTLY-DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING VORT MAX OVER CO. THOUGH STORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD...VERY WEAK WIND FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY PULSE STORMS...ALONG WITH LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 11:44:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 06:44:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508211301.j7LD1XVP017991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211259 SWODY1 SPC AC 211257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 NW GBN 25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF 40 WNW BIL 45 E 81V FSD 25 NW FOD 20 S CID 30 SW PIA 10 N STL 25 SE MDH 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE ...CONT... 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW NEARING JAMES BAY SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E INTO MANITOBA. IN THE MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM...UPR LOW NOW OVER NW CO EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY ESE...REACHING WRN KS BY 12Z MONDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO LOW SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGHS E OF THE APLCNS. FARTHER SW...TRAILING WRN PART OF FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT N AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS. ...SRN NEW ENG/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS REGION. THIS FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO REGION. COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE...THESE FACTORS SHOULD MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS...MAINLY ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SRN NEW ENG SWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN SRN NEW ENG/NY/NJ...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT. SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY EXIST FARTHER S OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. BUT WEAKER DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION RESUMES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING CO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION...AND KEEP ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREATS LIMITED. AN AREA OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO FORM EARLY MONDAY OVER ERN NEB AND IA AS WARM ADVECTION FOCUSES N OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE NOW MOVING S ACROSS SD/MN. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 15:21:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:21:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508211638.j7LGcQoD020104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211628 SWODY1 SPC AC 211627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 20 SE POU 15 NW PSF RUT 15 S MPV 20 SSW MWN 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSW PRC 50 W P38 60 ENE SVE 15 WNW MHS 45 S EUG DLS GEG 20 SW FCA 50 NE MSO 20 SSW BZN 20 S COD 40 S SHR 45 SSW REJ 40 S FSD 20 NNE BRL 30 W SPI 25 ESE MDH 35 SW SDF 25 SE LEX 15 WSW 5I3 40 S BLF 40 N GSO 40 S CHO 30 W ILG 10 S MSV 25 WSW GFL 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 25 W MFE 40 NNW VCT ACT 10 W SEP 15 ESE ABI 30 NW SJT 55 E FST 25 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FARTHER WEST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN CO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS BEST INDICATED BY THETA/DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS NY..PA THEN WWD ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. FARTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...THE FRONT MAY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...NEW ENGLAND... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THICKER CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DIABATIC HEATING WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN NY INTO SRN PARTS OF VT/NH. WARMING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING ESEWD INTO SERN NY ATTM...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ADDITION..AN ISOLATED CELL HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH OVER WRN VT. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ETA..SREF..AND 00Z 4.5 KM WRF-NMM RUN INDICATES A BAND OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION /ESPECIALLY SRN NEW ENGLAND/ THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION BY EVENING. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 3-4 KM AGL WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION/ERN CAROLINAS... LOW LEVEL NWLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING EAST OF APPALACHIANS LIMITING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG IN NJ/DELMARVA REGION TO 3500 J/KG IN THE ERN CAROLINAS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH... VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOA -5C IS REDUCING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL PARCEL ASCENT. WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN DURATION. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO KS/WRN MO IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW CELLS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN CO UPPER LOW. PRIMARY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NEB TONIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 18:39:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 13:39:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508211957.j7LJv3rR024427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211954 SWODY1 SPC AC 211952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BID 25 W GON 20 SSW BDL 10 NNW BAF 15 NNE ORH 15 ENE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSW PRC 50 W P38 60 ENE SVE 15 WNW MHS 45 S EUG DLS GEG 20 SW FCA 50 NE MSO 20 SSW BZN 20 S COD 40 S SHR 45 SSW REJ 15 SSE FSD 20 SW MLI 30 W SPI 25 ESE MDH 35 SW SDF 25 SE LEX 15 WSW 5I3 40 S BLF 40 N GSO 40 S CHO 30 W ILG 10 S MSV 25 WSW GFL 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 25 W MFE 40 NNW VCT ACT 10 W SEP 15 ESE ABI 30 NW SJT 55 E FST 25 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CT...RI AND MA... ...NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEARS TO BE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CT/RI INTO SERN MA WHERE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. ...NC COAST WWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO AR/MO... DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MOREOVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF +30 F T/TD SPREADS OVER NRN MS INTO SERN AR WHICH SUGGEST A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER...THOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. OVER WRN PART OF REGION...NAMELY SRN MO/NRN AR...WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SERN KS/FAR SWRN MO. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MORE INTENSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. ...NEB/IA... ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED W OF OFK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /REF. NELIGH PROFILER/ AND IMPLIED CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...KS... TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND W OF HYS WITHIN REGION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN KS IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM MCK TO HLC TO BETWEEN GBD AND SLN MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT IN LOCAL PROFILERS SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY/DURATION...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 23:48:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 18:48:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508220105.j7M15e7Q021017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220103 SWODY1 SPC AC 220101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 45 NE CLL 40 ESE DAL 15 NW MWL 40 NNE BGS 20 ESE INK 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 40 SE PGA 45 SW ELY 40 SSW U31 45 N BIH 35 W BIH 45 NW TVL 35 NNW RNO 40 NW LOL LMT 40 S EUG 40 NNW DLS 55 WNW FCA 40 SSW CTB 25 W LWT 45 ESE LVM 25 NW RIW 35 SSE DGW 30 NE VTN 30 NNW BRL 40 SE UIN 40 SE MVN 10 N HOP 35 E RMG 40 SE SPA 25 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ATTM -- ACROSS NEB...WRN OK...AND SRN MO...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. NEB STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL...AND STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER /25 TO 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN MO APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCING STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ...SC WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM SERN VA SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY DISORGANIZED/PULSE-TYPE STORMS PREVAILING. A FEW SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED/SWWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AND SR AL...WHERE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 04:38:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 23:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508220555.j7M5tkpn015205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220553 SWODY1 SPC AC 220551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 NE FLG 35 SE SGU 65 N DRA 30 E MER 65 SE RBL 20 ENE LMT PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 55 E SUX 20 E DSM 15 NE ALN 35 NW EVV 20 SSE SDF 10 SW JKL 40 ESE 5I3 15 NNW ORF ...CONT... 40 NW LRD 25 S SAT 15 S TPL 25 SSW ABI FST 55 SW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE BML. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SMALLER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- THROUGH MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...PHASING WITH WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK/REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE GULF COAST STATES WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE/MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN CO SEWD INTO OK... AIRMASS WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD/SEWD INTO KS/OK THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY NEAR AND N OF REMNANT FRONT. THOUGH NAM FORECASTS 25 TO 30 KT WNWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...NAMKF DEPICTS MUCH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. WITH STRENGTH OF SHEAR LIKELY DETERMINING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST MAINTAINING 5% WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD COULD BE WARRANTED IF SHEAR IS INDEED STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...THE SOUTHEAST... SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF REMNANT FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK WIND FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF ERN U.S. TROUGH...BUT WITH STRONGER FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A 5% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 11:42:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 06:42:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508221259.j7MCxkoM009731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221257 SWODY1 SPC AC 221256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE COS 25 SE FCL 20 SSE SNY GLD LBL 55 S LBL 15 NW CAO 20 ESE COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 S SAT 15 S TPL 25 SSW ABI 20 S FST 90 SSW P07 ...CONT... 85 SSW GBN 15 ESE PHX 15 WNW FLG 35 S SGU 65 N DRA 30 E MER 65 SE RBL 20 ENE LMT PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 55 E SUX 20 E DSM 15 NE ALN 35 NW EVV 20 SSE SDF 10 SW JKL 40 ESE 5I3 15 NNW ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN QUEBEC UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS COMPLEX UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN RCKYS. IN THE SRN STREAM...WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS AT LEAST THREE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE IS OVER ERN ORE...ANOTHER IS NOW ENTERING CNTRL CA...AND A THIRD IS OVER NE CO. ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN APPARENT IMPULSE/POSSIBLE MCV OVER W TN. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED FRONT WILL SETTLE SE ACROSS MT TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER N...A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL ALSO LINGER FROM NW TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY. ...ERN CO SEWD INTO OK... AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS E/SE INTO WRN PARTS OF KS AND OK...AS CLEARING OCCURS IN WAKE OF OVER OVERNIGHT MCS. WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS REGION... MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF CO IMPULSE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS LATER TODAY...YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL BE WEAK. BUT INCREASING SHEAR WITH ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO AND CONTINUE E/SE INTO WRN KS/NW OK TONIGHT. ...TN VLY... STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY TODAY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INVOF SMALL MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING E ACROSS REGION. GIVEN HI PWS AND BACKGROUND PATTERN FEATURING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS...SETUP COULD RESULT IN A BAND OR TWO OF STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS...POSSIBLY WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ...ID INTO WRN/NRN MT... CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF ORE UPR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ID/MT. SUPPORT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING UPR DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL SSW FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE INTO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT BANDS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 15:47:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 10:47:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508221704.j7MH4Z68014735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221655 SWODY1 SPC AC 221653 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 20 W YKN 35 N ALN 30 SW LUK 15 WSW RDU 25 NNW EWN 30 E ECG ...CONT... PSM 30 NNW BML ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 45 W ACT 15 SSW MWL 35 NNE ABI 20 SW BGS 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 10 SE PHX 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 15 ESE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN INDICATES POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER NERN ALBERTA/NWRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD THRU VANCOUVER ISLAND. WEAK FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH DOMINATE RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLATEAU EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL ME... THEN CONTINUING FROM SRN SC AND CENTRAL GA INTO NRN LA. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL AR INTO SRN OK/NRN TX ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THEN NWWD THRU THE OK PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM S CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO N CENTRAL MT...THEN ANOTHER FROM CENTRAL WA INTO NWRN OREGON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO WRN SD AND PARTS OF MT... WEAK FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND ANY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OVERWORKED AREA. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...POSSIBLY 1500 J/KG. THUS...THERMODYNAMIC DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS...POSSIBLY INTO NWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD INTO ERN AND CENTRAL MT WHERE MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED A RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTEND NWWD INTO SERN MT. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN MT AT THIS TIME...AND MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION MOSTLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...SERN AND GULF STATES... VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY WEAK LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0-6.5C/KM ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE SAME REGIME THAT MOSTLY REPORTED ISOLATED MARGINAL YESTERDAY. PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN TODAY WITH MARGINAL WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PULSE STORMS IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 18:23:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 13:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508221940.j7MJeTO8024077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221937 SWODY1 SPC AC 221935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 45 W ACT 15 SSW MWL 35 NNE ABI 20 SW BGS 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 20 SW PHX 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 15 ESE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 20 W YKN 35 N ALN 30 SW LUK 15 WSW RDU 25 NNW EWN 30 E ECG ...CONT... EPM 25 W BGR 25 ENE EFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... WIDESPREAD...EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS WILL MERGE AND OVERTURN WHAT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SC INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STORM MERGERS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA...AND FARTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF MS AND WRN AL...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HOLDING IN THE 8-9C/KM RANGE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN SHIFTING CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS DEBRIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BENEATH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. FARTHER NORTH...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NERN CO TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION WILL RESULT IN SLOW...SWD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT MAY LEND TO WEAK ROTATION...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. ...MT... DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS ONCE AGAIN FORCED DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN MT...SWD. STEERING CURRENTS FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS A FEW UPDRAFTS NEAR THE INITIATION REGION MAY GENERATE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. ..DARROW.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 23:42:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 18:42:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508230059.j7N0xxWX028825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230057 SWODY1 SPC AC 230056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HLC 40 SW RSL 15 N P28 35 NW END 40 SW GAG 30 N DHT 50 SSE LHX 45 NNW LAA 50 SSW GLD 35 SE GLD 45 W HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 20 NW CLL 15 NE DAL 35 SSE SPS 35 SSE LBB 40 WNW MRF ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 30 NW GBN 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 85 E 4LW 50 NNE BNO 35 N HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 30 NE FNB 20 E ALN 20 S HTS 50 SSW PSK 15 ENE RDU ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS/NWRN OK AND THE OK PANHANDLE/THE NRN TX PANHANDLE... ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... THOUGH REMNANT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND THEN WNWWD INTO OK/CO...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS KS/OK AND VICINITY. AREA RAOBS AND PROFILER DATA CONFIRM NAM FORECASTS OF MODERATE /25 TO 30 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...S OF SLOW-MOVING VORT MAX OVER NERN CO/WRN NEB. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS ERN CO / NWRN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WITH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS KS/INTO OK WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. WITH DEGREE OF SHEAR FORECAST TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE PARTS OF THIS AREA TO SLIGHT RISK. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 03:48:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 22:48:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508230506.j7N562Wk019660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230503 SWODY1 SPC AC 230502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 W OAJ 25 NW SOP 30 E DAN 25 NE RIC WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CDR 25 NW MHN 40 SSW EAR 45 W HUT 45 NNE GAG 25 ESE LBL 30 NNW EHA 30 NNE LHX 50 NW AKO 55 NW BFF 20 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 25 E BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 35 ENE MHE 25 S SUX 25 WSW P35 25 ENE COU 30 NNW MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN VA / NERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER ERN CANADA/THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...WHILE BELT OF SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED FLOW ARCS ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY...AROUND S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS BELT OF FLOW AND PRESENCE OF LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES REGION WITH TIME. THOUGH ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MT...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM MT SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- INVOF COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NE-SW ACROSS MT...AS WELL AS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN MT SWD INTO ERN CO AND THEN SSEWD INTO WRN OK. THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THIS REGION...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SSEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. ACROSS THIS AREA...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...MODELS FORECAST 30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JETLET TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST...VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- AS WELL AS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS INVOF NWRN KS WHICH SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME. ...SERN VA/NERN NC... THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF LINGERING FRONT -- FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES INTO AR. WITH BELT OF 20 TO 25 KT MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW FORECAST FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL HAIL/WIND THREAT. GREATER SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SERN VA INTO NERN NC. NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT/NE OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILE MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION -- PRIMARILY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 11:49:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 06:49:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508231307.j7ND78Lh018434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231302 SWODY1 SPC AC 231301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 W OAJ 25 NW SOP 30 E DAN 25 NE RIC WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CDR 25 NW MHN 40 SSW EAR 25 N ICT 30 NNE END 35 SE LBL 30 NNW EHA 20 ENE LHX 40 ENE FCL 55 NW BFF 20 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD 55 ESE SUX P35 25 ENE COU 30 NNW MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN DOV ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 W BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC/SE VA... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAINED CONSIDERABLY AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS WEAKER/FLATTER SRN STREAM PERSISTS FROM THE GRT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE NC CST. QUEBEC UPR LOW SHOULD DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IMPULSE NOW CROSSING LWR MI CONTINUES E/SE AROUND BASE OF SYSTEM AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE WEST...SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS WRN BC /PER WV IMAGERY/ SUGGESTS THAT EXISTING TROUGH OVER BC AND THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NW MT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD ACCELERATE LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN ERN UT/WRN WY E INTO THE HI PLNS. AT LWR LEVELS...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE OF NOTE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM ERN NC W ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO SRN KS. FARTHER N AND W...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SE ACROSS WRN MT/ID.. WHILE ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AS AXIS OF MODERATE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW /ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET/ PERSISTS OVER REGION. SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE SRN JET... COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AND/OR EXTEND SOMEWHAT FARTHER NWD TODAY ...AFFECTING PARTS OF ERN WY...ERN MT...WRN NEB AND WRN SD. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPORTED LARGELY BY DIURNAL UPSLOPE CIRCULATIONS...BUT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD FROM UT/WRN WY. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM INVOF NE/SW COLD FRONT IN MT. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN HI PLNS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL FOCUS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SSE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. WITH SURFACE HEATING BOOSTING MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO E/ESE-MOVING MASS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND INTO THE NIGHT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. ...ERN NC/SE VA... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM/STRENGTHEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF DIFFUSE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER NC/SRN VA LATER TODAY...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY REACH 1500 J/KG. MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT BELT OF 25-30 KT WNWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS ACROSS REGION...SUPPORTING SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. A SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SE VA/NE NC AS APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE NOW IN MI INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT/ WAVE...COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND MODERATE DEEP WLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. ...CNTRL/SRN AZ... A FEW STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS MAY FORM ALONG DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING NE/SW ACROSS S CNTRL AX...WHERE HI PWS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ON FRINGE OF DEEPER CLOUDINESS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 16:00:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 11:00:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508231717.j7NHHQJk030966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231638 SWODY1 SPC AC 231636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAP 60 ENE CDR 15 SSE MCK 35 S RSL 20 SW P28 15 SE LBL 45 NW EHA 10 ESE LHX 40 ENE FCL 55 NW BFF 40 S RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 N BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD P35 40 WSW STL 20 E MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN 10 S ACY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. AND ANOTHER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND NRN ROCKIES. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS N-S OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE PREDOMINANT RIDGE...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...LIES FROM TX EWD OVER THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NC WWD THRU CENTRAL GA...CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. ALSO THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANOTHER NIGHT OF ACTIVITY THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS THAT IS MOVING INTO NRN AND CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATED TWO WEAK LOWS...ONE OVER SERN CO ANOTHER NEAR/AROUND DENVER. FIRST PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HEATING POTENTIAL OVER SWRN KS INTO SERN CO. SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT REVEAL UPSLOPE FLOW YET DUE TO THE AIR MASS STILL BEING WORKED OVER FROM SEVERAL NIGHTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODEL HOWEVER SAYS MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER ERN CO. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT FREEZING LEVELS ARE AT 13K FEET AGL...TOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL. NO DOUBT THAT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AND E CENTRAL CO. THEN...FORM INTO AN OVERNIGHT MCS THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER WRN KS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH MID LEVELS BEING NEAR 7C/KM. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL INITIALLY THIS EVENING. ...SERN VA AND NC INTO THE GULF COAST STATES... CLOUDINESS INITIALLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SERN VA WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AS NAM DEVELOPS WEAK LOW ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIR MASS REMAINS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE MOSTLY ALONG COASTAL NC /500-1500 J/KG/ AND MODELS SHOWING THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL NC BEING AROUND 500 J/KG AT BEST. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NLY/NELY FLOW N OF A LINE FROM E CENTRAL NC INTO NWRN SC...WITH THE H85 FRONT FROM NEAR WAL-PTB-HKY LINE. THUS...WOULD ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT LIKE MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...WOULD EXPECT PULSE-LIKE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS OF MT INTO ND/SD... APPROACHING TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS MT INTO WRN AREAS OF ND/SD BY END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DEVELOP 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS...INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5C/KM COULD RESULT IN DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ...SRN AZ... THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER REGION IN AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD LEAD TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 18:54:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:54:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508232011.j7NKBMeM022124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232009 SWODY1 SPC AC 232008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AIA 45 WSW MHN 35 NNE HLC 20 SSE RSL 20 SW P28 25 NW GAG 10 NE CAO 40 E TAD 40 ESE FCL 20 WSW BFF 20 W AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ISN 25 ESE OLF 70 ENE LWT 45 NE GTF 45 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 N BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD P35 40 WSW STL 20 E MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN 10 S ACY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/NERN MT... ......AR/NRN MS... REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON. DECAYING CLOUD DEBRIS AND STRONG SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF RENEWED CONVECTION. IT APPEARS ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF REMNANT MVC OVER NWRN AR...EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. REF MCD #2057 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. THIS AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND APPEARS RECEPTIVE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM/SRN CO...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. AS HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE WHERE FAVORABLE ELY COMPONENT AT LOW LEVELS...1KM...CONTINUES. ...ERN MT... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS CNTRL MT TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. OVER THE LAST HOUR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED NORTH OF GTF ALONG DEVELOPING WIND SHIFT. AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS MT CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO MAINLY SRN SASKATCHEWAN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN/NERN MT WHERE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 23:49:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 18:49:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508240107.j7O16gkS016573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240103 SWODY1 SPC AC 240101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BFF 45 WSW MHN 40 ENE MCK 20 SSE RSL 50 W END 50 W CSM 15 SSW CAO 15 SSE LHX 30 NE COS 10 WSW SNY 30 SE BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE IPL 40 NNE LAS 55 WNW ELY 30 ENE OWY 60 NE BOI 25 W 3DU 40 W PUW 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N DVL 50 N ABR 30 E MHE FLV 10 WNW TBN CGI 45 W CSV 35 N TYS 15 N CHO 35 SE DOV ...CONT... 25 SSW PSX 55 NNE CLL 30 SW DUA 30 ESE CDS 55 NE BGS 25 SW FST 50 SW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INVOF LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOUGH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. ACROSS THIS REGION...MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED...AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NERN CO SWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST BY THE NAM...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...ONE OR TWO MCSS MAY EVOLVE. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 23:52:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 18:52:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508240109.j7O19PHl018062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240106 SWODY1 SPC AC 240105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BFF 45 WSW MHN 40 ENE MCK 20 SSE RSL 50 W END 50 W CSM 15 SSW CAO 15 SSE LHX 30 NE COS 10 WSW SNY 30 SE BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSX 55 NNE CLL 30 SW DUA 30 ESE CDS 55 NE BGS 25 SW FST 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 40 NNE LAS 55 WNW ELY 30 ENE OWY 60 NE BOI 25 W 3DU 40 W PUW 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N DVL 50 N ABR 30 E MHE FLV 10 WNW TBN CGI 45 W CSV 35 N TYS 15 N CHO 35 SE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY... CORRECTED THUNDER AREA ...ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INVOF LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOUGH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. ACROSS THIS REGION...MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED...AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NERN CO SWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST BY THE NAM...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...ONE OR TWO MCSS MAY EVOLVE. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 04:49:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 23:49:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508240606.j7O66MSr010140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240604 SWODY1 SPC AC 240602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE EHA 55 NNW GCK 10 NW RSL 10 SSE EMP 15 S CNU 15 SE BVO 20 SSW END GAG 20 SSW LBL 45 NNE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 15 N GFK ABR 10 NE PIR 10 ENE RAP REJ 35 SSW P24 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W COT 40 NNW SAT 30 E SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 WSW SPS 70 SSW CDS 10 NE MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 10 NE RAL 40 WNW PMD 25 WSW NID 40 WSW DRA 25 ENE SGU 20 WNW 4HV 45 SSE EVW 55 ESE RIW 55 ESE WRL 25 E BIL 40 NNW BIL 45 SSE GTF 45 SSE CTB 35 N CTB ...CONT... 35 E INL 15 WNW STC 25 SE FRM 45 SSW ALO 35 ESE IRK POF 50 N HSV 40 SW TYS 25 WNW HSS TRI 55 N HKY 15 E HKY 25 ENE CLT 30 SSW RDU 20 S ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN KS / NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE ALOFT THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT/ID. THIS FEATURE -- ACCOMPANIED BY A 70 KT JET AT MID-LEVELS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE -- WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME...WITH TROUGH AXIS REACHING SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD LIE FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD INTO WRN SD AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH BOTH STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECT TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE DAKOTAS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL AND WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CAP WEAKENS WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WWD AS NRN WY ALONG BOUNDARY...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE -- AND TO SOME DEGREE INTENSITY. STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /70 KT JET AT MID-LEVELS/ WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INVOF FRONTAL ZONE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH 35 TO 45 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS EXPECTED ABOVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEARLY-ORGANIZED RATHER QUICKLY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING PARTS OF WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN KS/NRN OK... THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN KS ATTM WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NRN OK AT THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REINFORCE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW LYING ACROSS SERN CO/OK/N TX...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD/COLD POOL. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION /15 TO 20 KT/...BUT ASSUMING AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...ELY FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY VEERING TO WLY WITH HEIGHT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/A FEW ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LIKELY MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE WITH TIME...VEERING JET MAY SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER/MCS...PERHAPS REACHING THE OZARKS REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 11:34:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 06:34:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508241252.j7OCq1KO007280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241249 SWODY1 SPC AC 241248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE EHA 55 NNW GCK 10 NW RSL 10 SSE EMP 15 S CNU 15 SE BVO 20 SSW END GAG 20 SSW LBL 45 NNE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 15 N GFK ABR 10 NE PIR 10 ENE RAP REJ 35 SSW P24 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 20 SE MKT 35 SSW ALO 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 65 NW LRD 55 NNW SAT 30 E SEP 20 N MWL 50 WSW SPS 75 SSW CDS 20 NNW MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 45 SE U24 45 S EVW 45 NNW RWL 30 SE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 35 NNE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT NRN RCKYS UPR LOW HAS REACHED MAXIMUM AMPLIFICATION AND SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NE INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS E FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND. SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH RCKYS LOW ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN MT ACROSS NW WY INTO NRN NV. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REACH A CNTRL ND/WRN SD/CNTRL WY AXIS BY EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER OVER ERN UT. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD AND WEAKEN TODAY. A BIT FARTHER SE...DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SRN KS/NRN OK ESE INTO THE LWR TN VLY. ...DAKOTAS... SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE...AND EXISTING CAP...EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEADING EDGE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS UPR LOW FINALLY REACHES ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. A RICH BUT RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. BAND OF STRONGEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY WILL REMAIN W OF FRONT. BUT EXPECTED 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. SHARP LINEAR FORCING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND ITS ORIENTATION ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL QUICKLY MERGE INTO BANDS. STRENGTH OF SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENT NATURE OF UPR LEVEL FLOW ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY REACH FAR WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN KS/NRN OK... SMALL MCS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION INVOF DIFFUSE FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT HAS MOVED BEYOND LLJ AXIS AND LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN/REDEVELOP FARTHER W BY MIDDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS...AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT OVER REGION...LIKELY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS HEATING DESTABILIZES AIRMASS AND LLJ ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS. EWD MOTION OF RCKYS UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF EXISTING SRN BRANCH JET OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AOB 20 KTS. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND OVER PARTS OF KS/NRN OK. OVERNIGHT...LLJ SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND ALLOW DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. HIGH PWS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE CLUSTER MOVES E/SE TOWARD SW MO BY 12Z THURSDAY. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 15:28:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 10:28:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508241646.j7OGk1eY025297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241644 SWODY1 SPC AC 241642 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GCK 20 W RSL 20 ENE SLN 20 NNW EMP 45 ENE CNU 35 S JLN 45 SW TUL 50 WSW END 40 NW GAG 20 ENE GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 20 N FAR 50 NE ABR 20 SSW HON 35 NNE VTN 50 SW MBG 35 W BIS 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT 30 NNW HDO 60 SSE BWD 25 W SEP 20 NNE ABI 25 NE BGS 40 NE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 35 E U24 45 SSE EVW 45 NW RWL 25 SSE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 WSW INL 30 NNW RST 35 WSW BRL 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND SD.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK.... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER MT/SASK BORDER WILL MOVE EWD AND NEWD INTO S CENTRAL ALBERTA DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVANCES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS BUILD THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING SWD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER INTO CENTRAL WY...WHILE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGHING IS FROM THE ERN NC SHORES WWD THRU CENTRAL GA/AL/MS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAKENING MCS CLUSTERS...ONE OVER SERN KS THE OTHER OVER NWRN OK. THE SERN KS MCS HAS LEFT IMPRESSIVE BAND OF GRAVITY WAVES OVER NWRN AR AND NERN OK WHICH MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR THIS AFTERNOON. ...ND/SD... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO ERN ND BY END OF THE PERIOD AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN WY. RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED ONE JET STREAK FROM W CENTRAL WY INTO CENTRAL ND WHICH IS REFLECTED AS WELL AT H70 BRINGING WELL MIXED AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED NEWD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SECOND LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE TX /OK PANHANDLE AND WRN KS NWD INTO ERN ND CREATING A CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ND AREA AIDING UVVS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER N CENTRAL ND. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER CENTRAL SD INTO S CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS ND...BUT INCREASED HEATING OVER WRN SD AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH FOR A LINE OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FAVORABLE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH NEAR 35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7.5-8.0 C/KM. ...PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK... CURRENTLY STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG FROM SERN KS SWD INTO W CENTRAL OK. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM MAINLY DUE TO CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS ALSO LEAD TO SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT WEAK ROTATION/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. THUS...GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 IN...WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 18:42:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 13:42:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508241959.j7OJxPXI001264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241956 SWODY1 SPC AC 241955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LBL 25 SSE RSL 25 E SLN 25 NNE EMP 45 ENE CNU 35 S JLN 45 WSW MKO 15 NNE FSI 60 WNW CSM 40 E LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 35 WNW FAR 20 SE ABR 20 SW 9V9 45 SE RAP 40 SSE REJ 25 E DIK 60 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 35 E U24 45 SSE EVW 45 NW RWL 25 SSE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 WSW INL 30 NNW RST 35 WSW BRL 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 35 SSE DRT 30 NNW HDO 60 SSE BWD 25 W SEP 20 NNE ABI 25 NE BGS 40 NE FST 70 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS KS AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...KS/OK... VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...APPROACHING 2IN...PERSIST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL OK INTO SRN KS. WITH INHIBITION NOW WEAKENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH 3500-4000J/KG COMMON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD FOR A WHILE BEFORE A MORE EWD MOVEMENT OCCURS WITH STORM MATURATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCED BY A SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT NOTED IN LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME...APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC...IS SPREADING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WY INTO WRN SD. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN WITHIN THIS PLUME AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN SPREAD NEWD GIVEN STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE DAKOTAS...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE BY SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 23:58:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 18:58:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508250115.j7P1FqAG011840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250112 SWODY1 SPC AC 250110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DDC SLN MHK TOP 25 ESE OJC JLN 25 WNW TUL LTS 40 ENE AMA DDC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT GFK 45 NE ABR 9V9 RAP Y22 10 WNW BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP SAT ACT DAL 55 N FTW SPS 40 NE FST 60 SW MRF ...CONT... 30 SW IPL TRM DAG 55 ENE NID DRA 35 NW P38 U24 45 SSE EVW LND WRL 35 S SHR REJ 40 NW Y22 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 40 NNE RRT BKX SUX CGI 15 S CKV CSV TYS HSS 30 SE CLT SOP 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SRN/SERN CONUS PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONE...CENTERED OVER MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FEATURES TWO PROMINENT CYCLONES -- FIRST OVER GULF OF MAINE AND SECOND CENTERED OVER SWRN SASK...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND LATEST AVAILABLE RAOB DATA. WEAK/POSITIVELY TILTED PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...EJECTING NEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY. WEAK SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL ND THROUGH CENTRAL/SWRN SD TO ERN/CENTRAL WY -- SHOULD DRIFT EWD AND SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS PARENT SFC CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND BECOMES MORE VERTICAL STACKED WITH SASK UPPER VORTEX. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM NEB PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS ERN CO. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM SERN OK NWWD ACROSS NWRN OK TO SWRN KS. DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM MO OZARKS WWD ACROSS SRN KS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS CONTINUES FROM PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO CENTRAL KS...THOUGH RISK OVER TX PORTION MAY BE ON THE WANE. REF REMAINDER WW 742 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFORMATION. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN. SFC THETAE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH NWD EXTENT FM NRN OK INTO NRN KS...CROSSING THROUGH TWO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MOIST LLJ WILL DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS NWRN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN KS...NEARLY DOUBLING TO AROUND 40 KT AND ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. GIVEN SEASONALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM OBSERVED AT AMA/DDC THIS EVENING...JUXTAPOSED ATOP RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PARCELS MAY BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ...NRN PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS REMAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING -- BOTH IN ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY NEWLY FORMED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL ND AND ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP IN PLUME OF UNSTABLE AIR COVERED BY OUTLOOK. LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLY STEEP OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION --I.E. 8-9 DEG C/KM IN BIS 700-500 MB LAYER...THOUGH SBCINH APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY FOR ONLY A FEW DEG C OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING. STILL...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL -- AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS FOR SUPERCELL AND BOW MODES...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN SD NWD. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 04:33:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 23:33:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508250550.j7P5obBa027926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250547 SWODY1 SPC AC 250546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP RSL HLC MCK IML 30 ENE FCL CYS 55 SSE DGW 35 NNW BFF 45 ENE AIA VTN 9V9 FAR 30 SSE TVF 35 E BJI MSP FOD DSM 25 ESE P35 30 ESE OJC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM EDW 45 WNW BIH 45 SSE U31 40 NE U24 25 SSW WRL 20 SSW GCC RAP 35 NNW MBG 55 N DVL ...CONT... 35 WSW CMX VOK 40 WNW RFD FDY HLG 35 S EKN 20 ESE CHA 25 NE ANB LGC 35 W SAV 50 E SAV ...CONT... 15 WSW BRO 30 WNW ALI AUS 30 SW SHV TXK PGO 50 SW TUL 35 S END CSM BGS 40 SSW FST 95 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING RENDERING WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN HALF OF CONUS. NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL SASK. SFC LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH CYCLONE ALOFT BY EARLY IN PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL FILLING TREND AS DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LOW DRIFTS NEWD OVER WRN/NRN MB. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM NERN ND SSWWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION INTO CENTRAL WY -- IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER NRN MN...SEWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...AND SWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... INTENSE SFC HEATING -- COMBINED WITH NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT -- SHOULD RESULT IN CAP BREAKAGE AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TSTMS DURING LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM APPEAR OVER PORTIONS NEB INTO SIOUX-LAND REGION...WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR SHOULD REACH 4000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS...DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN MN. FROM SRN NEB EWD TOWARD MO VALLEY...LARGE BUOYANCY AND INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOULD OFFSET RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...FAVORING SUPERCELLS MAINLY INVOF SFC FRONT. FARTHER W OVER SERN WY AND NEB PANHANDLE...WEAK ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE OVER REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THIS REGION. THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH 30 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK APPEARS TO BE SERN NEB/WRN IA/NERN KS/NWRN MO REGION...WHERE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD INTERCEPT MOIST/35-40 KT SWLY LLJ AND MOVE ESEWD TO SSEWD. STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG. ...SRN FL -- TS KATRINA... OFFSETTING FACTORS COMPEL MARGINAL/SUBCATEGORICAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM. LATEST NHC FCST SCENARIO IS FOR TS KATRINA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE ATLANTIC COAST OF S FL...DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN FL AFTER 26/00Z...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER 26/06Z AS MIDDLE/OUTER PART OF NERN QUADRANT BEGINS TO AFFECT LAND. A FEW DISCRETE/MINI SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER GULF STREAM AND MOVE ASHORE LATE. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE 00Z RAOBS -- I.E. EYW...MIA AND KINGSTON -- SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL DRYING MAY NOT BE DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT FACTOR...PLUS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONES FOR SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH...AND FCST TRACK TIMING RELATIVE TO SFC HEATING MIN OVER LAND...ALL SUGGEST RELATIVELY LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTTN22 KNHC -- FOR TRACK/ INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND VALID WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS/CROBSIE.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 11:45:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 06:45:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508251302.j7PD28hH011243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251259 SWODY1 SPC AC 251257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP RSL HLC 25 SSW MCK 20 SW IML 30 ENE FCL CYS 55 SSE DGW 35 NNW BFF 45 ENE AIA VTN 9V9 FAR 30 SSE TVF 35 E BJI MSP FOD DSM 25 ESE P35 30 ESE OJC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CMX 35 ESE CWA 30 SSW MKE 10 SE CGX 25 S CLE 20 SE PIT 25 S EKN 40 ENE CHA 25 WSW ATL 60 N AYS 15 ESE CHS ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 35 E COT 35 SSE TPL 30 S TYR 15 SSW TXK 25 WNW PGO 40 WSW TUL 35 S END 25 NNW LTS 55 E LBB 30 SW INK 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM 10 E EDW 35 N NID 60 SSE ELY 50 ESE DPG 40 NW RIW 25 SW GCC 35 S Y22 45 ENE BIS 75 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CNTRL STATES...WHILE SASKATCHEWAN UPR LOW...NEARLY CUTOFF FROM TRUE NRN STREAM JET FARTHER TO THE N...CONTINUES TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY ENE. SETUP WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WSW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL SPEEDS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 KTS IN KS TO ABOVE 60 KTS IN ND. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AS TRAILING COLD FRONT...ATTM EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD/NW NEB AND SRN WY...CONTINUES SLOWLY E INTO MN...SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEB...AND S ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS BY 12Z FRIDAY. FARTHER S...EXPANSIVE/SLOWLY-MOVING OVERNIGHT MCS IN KS/MO HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM WRN IL ACROSS SW MO/NE OK/S CNTRL AND CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB. THE WRN AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NE LATER TODAY. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS... SURFACE HEATING...CONTINUED INFLOW OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/ OVER PARTS OF THE NEB AND KS TODAY. THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR S OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND INVOF WRN PART OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY KS/MO MCS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SW MN/ERN SD SWD INTO NEB...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MO INTO SRN IL/WRN KY. DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KTS IN KS TO 40 KTS IN WY AND SD...BUT AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND FOCUSED NATURE OF CONVERGENCE FIELD...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS IN CNTRL/ERN NEB...AND IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HI PLNS...MAY ALSO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A ONE OR TWO TORNADOES BOTH AREAS. COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT FRONTAL UPLIFT...MOISTURE INFLOW AND EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE CNTRL PLNS STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCSS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL NEB/N CNTRL KS E/SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AND PERHAPS FAR SW IA. WIND PROFILES AND HI PWS IN THIS REGION WILL FAVOR ECHO TRAINING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WET MICROBURSTS. ...FL PENINSULA/T.S. KATRINA... OFFSETTING FACTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL/SUB CATEGORICAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS ERN FL RELATED TO T.S. KATRINA. LATEST TPC FCST IS FOR KATRINA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST OF S FL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN FL AFTER 26/00Z...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER 26/06Z AS MIDDLE/OUTER PART OF NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION BEGINS TO AFFECT LAND. A FEW DISCRETE MINI SUPERCELLS MAY FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND MOVE ONSHORE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. BUT WV IMAGERY AND THE LATEST /12Z/ RAOBS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL NOT OCCUR ON WRN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. COUPLED WITH AN ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES OVER THE PENINSULA FOR KATRINA TO INTERACT WITH...AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY RELATIVE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 15:27:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 10:27:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508251644.j7PGisR1010879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251641 SWODY1 SPC AC 251640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP HUT 35 SSW HLC 25 NE GLD 35 S SNY 20 NW SNY 20 NW AIA 45 ENE AIA VTN 9V9 25 SSW ATY 50 E ATY 25 NNW RWF 25 NNW FRM FOD 30 WSW DSM 20 SSW P35 10 SSE OJC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CMX 35 ESE CWA 30 SSW MKE 25 WNW SBN 25 S CLE 20 SE PIT 25 S EKN 50 E CHA 25 WSW ATL 75 ESE MCN 35 SSW CRE ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM 10 E EDW 35 N NID 60 SSE ELY 50 ESE DPG 40 NW RIW 10 NE GCC 35 ENE REJ 35 NNE BIS 60 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 35 E COT 30 SSE TPL 40 W TYR 25 NE PRX 30 ENE MLC 50 ENE OKC 35 WNW OKC 20 WNW LTS 50 ESE LBB 25 SSE INK 60 SSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN MID/UPPER AIR FEATURE IS THE STRONG LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SWD AND SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES. ALSO...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH T.S. KATRINA EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWD/SWWD THRU CENTRAL SD INTO SRN WY. ALSO...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE ACROSS SWRN MO INTO S CENTRAL AND WRN KS. MODELS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS FROM PARTS OF SD INTO KS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TIGHTENING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO NEAR 40 KTS AT MID LEVELS...AND 60 KT AT UPPER LEVELS. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS BAND OF 30-40 KT SWLY WINDS ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN KS...WHICH THE MODELS EXTEND INTO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB INTO NRN KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEB WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NERN CO. THIS CONFLICTS WITH THE MODEL FORECAST WHERE MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING AN MCS OVERNIGHT AFFECTING CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UVVS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHERE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL PENINSULA... SEE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY TPC ON T.S. KATRINA. SOME WEAK SHEAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LIMITING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF STRENGTHENING ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 18:46:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 13:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508252003.j7PK3AUm018850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252000 SWODY1 SPC AC 251959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DDC 15 ENE LAA 45 ESE FCL 40 NNE CYS 45 WSW CDR 45 NE CDR 30 NE HON 45 NE BKX 20 SSE RWF 15 S FOD 20 SSW P35 MKC 25 NW CNU 25 SW ICT 30 SSW DDC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 40 E COT 30 S TPL 30 SSE FTW 40 NW ADM 30 ENE CSM 35 W CSM 50 NNE BGS 75 NE P07 50 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 30 E DAG 50 NNW P38 10 W BPI 10 NE WRL 15 N GCC 35 S REJ 45 SE BIS 75 N GFK ...CONT... 20 SE CMX 35 SE CWA 25 NNW MKE SBN 15 NW MFD HLG 20 W EKN 40 SSW PSK 15 S AVL 45 NNE ATL 30 SSE ATL 30 ESE MCN 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SW FLOW AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO. THE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING IN SE WY AND ACROSS NE CO. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS. LOWER TO MID 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KB IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST AS STORMS INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST FROM NW KS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND NW KS. SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NEB MOVING THE SYSTEM SEWD INTO NE KS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AND A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN AND CNTRL FL... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER BRINGS KATRINA INTO SRN FL TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SHOW THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER OF KATRINA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 KT SUGGESTING THE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH THE TORNADO THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 23:59:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:59:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508260116.j7Q1GYuY007432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260114 SWODY1 SPC AC 260112 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GCK 50 SE LIC 40 WNW LBF 15 SSE AIA 55 ENE DGW 40 NW HON 40 NE ABR 50 SW BJI BRD SPW LWD OJC 25 NW CNU ICT GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MIA 20 WNW PBI 25 WNW MLB 20 NW DAB 45 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GLS SAT 20 ESE BWD 50 ESE SPS 55 NW MLC 30 SSW PNC 15 SSE GAG 45 N AMA 25 WSW MAF 55 SSW P07 ...CONT... 30 SE YUM DRA 50 NE ELY RKS 50 NW RIW 4BQ MBG ABR 35 WNW RRT ...CONT... 10 NW IWD 40 NW LSE 15 SSW DBQ SBN DAY JKL TYS HSV BHM AUO 40 ENE ABY 50 NNE AYS 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL ERN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER MOST OF CONUS IS DOMINATED BY ZONALLY ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING FROM OFFSHORE SRN CA EWD ACROSS NRN TX AND SC. PRINCIPAL NRN STREAM FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE STACKED/OCCLUDED CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN SASK AND WRN MB. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MB THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- EVIDENT AT 23Z FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL SD AND ERN WY -- WILL MOVE EWD SLOWLY OVER NRN MN AND SEWD ACROSS NRN NEB AND ERN SD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... REF WW 745 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST SHORT-TERM INFO FROM NRN NEB THRU W-CENTRAL MN. PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR ATY...HON...ANW...AIA HAS BEEN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND SEWD OFF THAT BOUNDARY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SWD...ACROSS PREFRONTAL ARAS OF SD/NEB/KS. OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS WITH STRONG COLD POOL IS EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY DATA...SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS ERN CO. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COOLING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW POOL TO SURGE EWD INTO MORE OF SWRN NEB AND PORTIONS WRN KS. REF SPC WW 744 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2079 FOR LATEST GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA AND DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT ONE OR TWO PRIMARY MCS TO PERSIST AND MOVE EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN KS AND SRN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN THREAT WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. NRN KS PORTION MAY BE FAVORED FOR PROPAGATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF PROXIMITY TO VERY MOIST/35-40 KT SWLY LLJ PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN KS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. ...FL E COAST... REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION AS KATRINA TRACKS SLOWLY INLAND OVER S FL. MLB VWP INDICATES INCREASING LOW LEVEL SRH WITH TIME FOR TYPICAL STORM MOTIONS IN FAVORED PERIPHERAL/NERN QUADRANT -- WHICH STILL LIES OFFSHORE. LACK OF FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SMALL/RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED WELL OFFSHORE DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS. GREATEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AT NIGHT WILL BE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH THETAE AIR MASS OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND FROM GULF STREAM...BUT GIVEN DEEP/MOIST LAPSE RATES...WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...PRIND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CLUSTERED OR ORGANIZED TORNADO EVENT IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. BECAUSE OF SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN BOTH FAVORABLE SHEAR AMD BUOYANCY WITH DISTANCE FROM ATLANTIC COAST...TORNADO PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WWD FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 04:36:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 23:36:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508260553.j7Q5rBOm031507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260551 SWODY1 SPC AC 260549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE HRO MKO GAG GCK BBW BUB SUX 45 WSW FOD DSM P35 40 NNE COU SLO PAH 25 NNE DYR 50 SE HRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 35 SW ORL MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BUF AOO SSU TCL MEI 35 ENE MOB MAI 30 NW SAV 30 N HSE ...CONT... 10 NW LRD SAT 30 N AUS 30 WNW ACT SEP 35 ENE ABI 55 WNW ABI BGS 35 NE FST 55 SSW P07 ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 NNE FHU 55 SSW GNT 30 SSW FMN 4HV PUC 45 SW VEL 55 WSW LAR 40 NNE CDR 30 WNW MHE 35 E AXN 15 NW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SRN CONUS RIDGE IS FCST TO WEAKEN ON ERN END AND BUILD ACROSS SWRN CONUS...RESULTING IN PRIMARY HIGH ALOFT BEING LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL S AND SE OF NRN STREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL PORTION SK/MB BORDER. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT SHOULD LIE ACROSS NRN NEB. FARTHER NE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHIN BROAD OUTLOOK REGION. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS SPECIFIC LOCATION OF GREATEST POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS BROAD OUTLOOK AREA. SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE FOCI WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON EVOLUTION OF CURRENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND GEOMETRY/PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POCKET OF RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR -- UNDISTURBED BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ITS S AND E -- ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE NOT DEEPLY OVERTURNED/STABILIZED BY PRIOR MCS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S AND STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED...BENEATH ABOUT 30-40 KT 500 MB WINDS...ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS YIELDS SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN FCST SOUNDINGS. E-W OR NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOWS MAY LOCALLY BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SHEAR/LIFT AS WELL. ONE OR TWO PRIMARY MCS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND MOVE EWD TO SEWD...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- REGARDING FCST TRACK/INTENSITY AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ON KATRINA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL THROUGH EARLY PERIOD AS CENTER MOVES FARTHER INTO GULF...SUPPORTING INNER-BAND TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT COVERAGE/NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTMS. PERIPHERAL/OUTER-BAND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING DAY AS WELL. LACK OF AMBIENT/MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONES -- TO EITHER FOCUS OR RESTRICT SFC-BASED SUPERCELL OCCURRENCE -- SHIFTS LIKELY EMPHASIS TO MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES THAT ARE YET TO DEVELOP. MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR POCKETS OF ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE...ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS...AMIDST LARGE AMBIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY. ...UPPER MIDWEST... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTS. PRIND MIDLEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER S...IN REGIME OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF FRONT...FROM MIDAFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WEAKENS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 00:16:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 19:16:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508280134.j7S1YNUE015303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270546 SWODY1 SPC AC 270544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MSS 40 ESE UCA 20 NNW PHL 35 NNW RIC 35 W GSO ANB 0A8 25 NW LUL 50 SSW LUL 30 E MOB MGR FLO GSB 20 E ECG ...CONT... 15 SE FHU SAD 35 ENE SOW 85 ESE PGA 35 NE MLF 55 WSW BPI 40 SE RIW 35 NNW CYS 30 NNW MCK GRI 40 S OMA TOP 35 NE ICT 40 NE OKC 30 NNW MLC 35 WNW UNO DEC 40 NNE CGX 10 WNW MTW AUW BJI 80 N GFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SRN CA...WITH RIDGE EWD ACROSS NRN TX TO GA -- WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN ITS VICINITY THROUGH PERIOD. DOMINANT NRN STREAM FEATURE WILL REMAIN SLOW-MOVING/STACKED/OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER MB...WHICH THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT SEWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN ONT N OF LS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY EXTENDING SWD FROM THAT LOW TO LOWER MO VALLEY -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- REINFORCED ON WRN END BY OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR/ONGOING CONVECTION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...AND SLOWLY SWD OVER RED RIVER AREA. SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER SRN PLAINS IS WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...LEAVING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB/KS. ...ERN GREAT LAKES TO SRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON OVER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM TN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS MAY BE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS...WHERE ASSOCIATED LIFT AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP MOST RAPIDLY. OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL UPON YET UNDEFINED MESOSCALE PROCESSES ATTM TO DEFINE CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE BROAD SWATH OF MARGINAL PROBABILITIES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RICH ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION...THOUGH CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NARROW OVER MI/OH BECAUSE OF ELY COMPONENT AND SOMEWHAT LOWER THETAE TRAJECTORIES FROM NERN CONUS RIDGING. SFC DEW POINTS 70S F FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO OH VALLEY WILL YIELD MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG DURING AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS SRN PLAINS BECAUSE OF DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS...HOWEVER...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ALSO CAN SERVE TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS ENTIRE FRONTAL CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN LOW AND/OR MIDLEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE MORE SUITABLE FOR MULTICELLS AND SHORT-LIVED/SLOW-MOVING BOWS THAN EITHER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OR PROGRESSIVE/COLD POOL DRIVEN MCS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... POCKETS OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT...SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS KS/NEB INVOF SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPEST MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT OF ANY AREAS WITH APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IF PRESENT OBSERVATIONAL AND PROGGED TRENDS IN MOISTURE AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTINUE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SMALL...BUT WITH STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND AFTERNOON MLCAPES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES. ...FL KEYS... MARGINAL/SHORT-LIVED TORNADO POSSIBILITY EXISTS DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS WELL E OF CENTER OF DEPARTING HURRICANE KATRINA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THEN SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AS HURRICANE HEADS TOWARD CENTRAL GULF...CLOSING ANY TC-RELATED TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS S FL. REF NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- FOR TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ON KATRINA. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 08/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 00:16:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 19:16:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508280136.j7S1ZnG9015689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261954 SWODY1 SPC AC 261953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LIT 55 NW MLC 35 W CSM 20 SW GAG ICT 10 NE EMP 30 S OJC 15 WSW TBN 55 NW POF 15 NW MDH 15 E SLO 25 NE EVV 35 W BWG 25 NE MKL 10 N MEM 25 N LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 50 NNE FHU 55 SSW GNT 30 SSW FMN 50 WNW 4HV 30 SSE SLC 25 SE EVW 20 WSW CYS 30 N GLD 50 WNW CNK LNK 25 N MKT 60 ENE STC 30 NW ELO ...CONT... 25 NW BUF 25 NW MRB 20 E ROA 25 WNW HKY 20 NE RMG 15 ENE TCL 25 E MEI 45 NNE MOB 15 WNW CEW 10 S MAI 40 ENE MGR 15 NW SAV 25 N HSE ...CONT... 25 WNW DRT 65 ENE P07 50 SW SJT 25 ENE SJT BWD 35 SE SEP 40 NNW ACT FTW 50 NW MWL 50 NW ABI BGS 35 NE FST 50 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...IL/IND/KY... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS AIDED IN STRONG SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO SRN IND/WRN KY SHORTLY...ALTHOUGH AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING SEVERE UPDRAFTS. EVEN SO...MOMENTUM OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND THREAT. ...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK... BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN KS INVOF AGITATED NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL CONVECTION. WITH TIME THESE MID LEVEL UPDRAFTS SHOULD COUPLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND ROOT INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 3000 MLCAPE. WLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT JUST BENEATH THE EL LAYER WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTING ALOFT FOR AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO NRN AR/NERN OK LATE. UPSTREAM...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND SHIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. WITH 20-25KT MID LEVEL FLOW...MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 04:01:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 23:01:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508280519.j7S5J7EA014497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280516 SWODY1 SPC AC 280515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVE 20 ENE MSY 45 NNW GPT 55 N MOB 25 WSW TOI 15 E DHN 35 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 SSW SOW 70 SE PGA 10 N U17 25 ENE CNY DEN MHN 40 NNE BUB 20 NW SUX 30 ESE OTM 15 WNW COU 35 WNW TUL 30 NE ADM 40 SW PGO 60 E FSM ARG 10 NE CKV 30 N LOZ 10 SE CRW 35 WSW MRB 30 SW IPT 30 NNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CLE DAY 10 SSW IND 15 ESE DNV 50 S CGX 20 NE BEH 30 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WNW FCA 30 NNW S80 20 E BNO 60 W BNO 45 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED POLAR BRANCH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING MID/UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTENSIFYING TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE E...INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVING LITTLE OVER THE TN VALLEY. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CNTRL GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NWLY WITH TIME...WITH CENTER APPROACHING THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY 29/12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE BANDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST. TROPICAL AIR MASS AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF KATRINA WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE OF MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...TN VALLEY... A SEPARATE REGION OF ISOLATED...DIURNAL SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HERE...COMBINATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND DIABATIC HEATING IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO INDICATE STRONGER WIND FIELDS ABOVE 9 KM AGL...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN RATHER WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING FROM WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... AFOREMENTIONED...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN MT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ACT ON THIS INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS REGION INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO LOW. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN POINTS TO THE S...DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 50-60 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 11:18:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 06:18:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508281236.j7SCaSvE003291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281233 SWODY1 SPC AC 281232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE HUM 20 NW MSY 30 SE MCB 25 SSW LUL 50 S SEM MAI 35 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 SSW SOW 70 SE PGA 10 N U17 25 ENE CNY 25 ESE 4FC MHN 25 W YKN 35 NNE SUX 30 NW PIA 45 SSE UIN 35 WNW TUL 40 WSW MLC 35 WSW PGO 60 E FSM ARG 40 NNW HOP 15 E SDF 20 W DAY 25 ENE LAF 35 SW SBN 35 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WNW FCA 30 NNW S80 20 E BNO 60 W BNO 45 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... AS CAT-5 HURRICANE KATRINA TURNS MORE NWD AND APPROACHES THE SERN LA COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...OUTER RAIN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LARGE...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE OVER THIS SAME REGION. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... OVERALL THUNDERSTORM SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AS REGION REMAINS UNDER MODEST NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPES GIVEN AUGUST AFTERNOON HEATING. IN ADDITION...MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DEEP NLY WINDS EVIDENT ON PROFILERS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IF WINDS CAN RESPOND TO APPROACHING SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN SHEAR MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ATTM REMAIN SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL ABOUT HOW RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AND WILL OPT TO LEAVE LOW PROBABILITIES... THOUGH UPGRADE TO SLGT MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS INTO ERN NM/FAR WRN TX. FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY ALONG A NERN NEB INTO NERN CO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRIER. THIS MAY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE FRONT. ...TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH... WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN IN PLACE. THOUGH OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STRONG HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST STRONGER CELLS SHOULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET-MICROBURSTS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 15:13:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:13:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508281631.j7SGVjev016905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281629 SWODY1 SPC AC 281627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE HUM 10 N MSY 45 ESE MCB 45 ESE LUL 40 WSW TOI 20 SE DHN 25 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INK 25 E GDP 55 NNW GDP 45 SSE 4CR 25 E 4CR 65 ENE 4CR 30 WNW CVS 15 SSE CVS 45 NNE HOB 20 NNE INK INK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CNK 50 SSW EAR 35 SSW BBW 25 NNW BBW 30 N BUB 45 NNE BUB 40 WNW OMA 35 ESE OMA 30 W LWD 25 ENE STJ 10 WNW STJ 25 WNW CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 45 NE TUS 25 ENE GBN 15 WSW PRC 10 SW INW 40 W GUP 50 SW CEZ 25 WNW CEZ 50 NNE 4BL 15 S CNY 30 S 4HV 35 NNW PGA 50 SSW BCE 10 SSW CDC 40 ENE MLF 40 ESE U24 15 W PUC 30 S VEL 15 N CAG 30 WNW FCL 20 NNW MHN 25 W YKN 35 NNE SUX 10 ENE DSM 30 SSE MLI 25 S CGX 25 ESE SBN 30 WSW FWA 25 S DNV ALN 25 ENE JEF 20 SE OJC 25 ENE CNU 15 NNE BVO 50 WSW TUL 25 SSE OKC 35 NNW MWL 10 WSW FTW 20 NE DAL PRX 45 ESE FSM 15 SW POF 35 NNE PAH 35 SSE BMG DAY 35 WSW MFD 35 SW CAK 25 SSW PKB 20 ESE CRW 20 WNW SSU 35 W SHD 40 W CXY BGM 35 SSE SLK 30 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80 25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE SE NEB AREA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NM.... ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TONIGHT... THE OUTER NRN BANDS OF HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE LA DELTA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE PROGRESSES NWWD. GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND BREADTH OF THE WIND FIELD WITH KATRINA...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY TONIGHT FROM SE LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ...ERN NEB AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM CENTRAL/WRN SD TOWARD CENTRAL AND ERN NEB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS E-W ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER TO A WEAK LOW IN SE NEB...AND THEN NWWD TO N CENTRAL NEB. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/LARGE MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING SEWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...SE NM AREA THIS AFTERNOON... OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO S CENTRAL TX...WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE/CLOUDY AREA IN ITS WAKE ACROSS CENTRAL TX. W OF THE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W TX AND SE NM...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 60 F. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER CENTRAL NM...AND THIS WAVE WILL REACH SE NM THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING STORMS WITH S TO SSE MOVING SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 18:43:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:43:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508282000.j7SK0sZ2004571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281958 SWODY1 SPC AC 281957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 30 E BTR 35 E MCB 45 NNW MOB 50 NW CEW 20 ENE CEW AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MRF 35 W MRF 50 ESE ELP 30 ESE ONM 35 NNW 4CR 40 NNE 4CR 55 NNE ROW 45 ENE ROW 10 NNE INK 15 SE FST 35 ESE MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW DMN SAD SOW 50 WNW GUP 15 WSW FMN 50 NNE 4BL 15 S CNY 50 SSW BCE 20 S CDC CDC 20 ENE U24 PUC CAG 35 W LAR 20 NE LAR 35 NE CYS 30 NNW SNY 45 ENE SNY 45 ENE MCK 10 W EAR 15 NNE BBW 35 NNW BUB SUX DSM 25 N BRL 35 NE BMI 15 W DNV 10 NNW MTO 35 SSW DEC 10 NNE COU 50 SW SZL CNU 40 NNW BVO 20 S PNC 40 SSE PNC 35 WSW TUL 10 SW TUL 25 SW HRO ARG CGI 35 ENE EVV 15 SW LUK 45 WSW UNI PKB MGW 20 SE AOO CXY 15 N PHL 15 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW OJC 25 E ICT 40 SW P28 35 SSW DDC 20 W DDC 25 SSW RSL 25 S CNK 45 N CNK 30 NW GRI 35 E BUB 25 W OFK 35 SW SUX 20 SW DSM OTM BRL 35 SW PIA 35 W SPI 40 SSW UIN 25 NNE SZL 35 SSW OJC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80 25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES... ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST... CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST TO TURN NWD AND APPROACH THE SERN LA/MS COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON...THE CLOSEST OUTER BANDS TO LAND EXTENDED FROM THE MARSH LANDS IN EXTREME SERN LA EWD TO SOUTH OF THE MS/AL COAST. AS KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE OUTER BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND LARGE EXTENT OF THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN RAIN BANDS FROM SERN LA EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ...ERN NEB/KS/MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED IN ERN NEB BETWEEN BUB AND OMA AND MOVING SEWD. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY FEEDING THE STORMS HAS SUPPORTED HAIL UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOWS HAVE CONGEALED AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY INCREASE THE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST OF DDC NEWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX... AN MCV SE OF ABQ HAD AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING SSEWD THROUGH THE SERN QUARTER OF NM THIS AFTERNOON...REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK SEWED INTO FAR WRN TX OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 06Z. ..IMY.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 23:34:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 18:34:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508290052.j7T0qYm4018911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290050 SWODY1 SPC AC 290048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW HUM 30 N MSY 20 ENE LUL 40 SW SEM 25 S TOI 10 WNW MAI 35 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 25 NE SVC 50 SSW GNT 30 NNE GUP 15 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 45 SSE 4FC 40 WNW AKO 20 ENE IML 30 WNW EAR 30 E GRI 20 S DSM 25 N BRL 35 NE BMI 15 W DNV 10 NNW MTO 35 SSW DEC COU 50 SSW SZL 40 NNE JLN 35 SW UMN 30 ESE FSM 10 NNW HOT 50 SW MEM 20 NW MDH 20 WSW BMG 45 NW LUK 20 S CMH 10 N PKB 25 NW EKN 20 NNW SHD 25 ESE CHO 35 NW ORF 35 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80 25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST... ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... INITIAL...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NE OF MSY TO NEAR MOB TO ABOUT 40 SW OF AQQ. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THIS BAND NEAR MOB. CURRENT VWPS FROM MOBILE AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES NOW APPROACHING 300-350 M2/S2. AS CENTER OF KATRINA NEARS THE SERN LA COAST OVERNIGHT...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT WITHIN NERN QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD. ...SWRN TX... FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED THIS EVENING OVER REEVES AND WARD COUNTIES WITH A RECENT 69 KT GUST REPORTED AT PECOS. 00Z MAF SOUNDING IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF INFLOW AIR MASS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODESTLY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL W-NW WINDS SHOULD AID IN MAINTENENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SEWD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NERN KS AND NWRN MO... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS REGION. 00Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB AND A MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. WHILE OBSERVED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY MAY SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2106. ..MEAD.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 04:17:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 23:17:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508290535.j7T5ZMlK032592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290532 SWODY1 SPC AC 290531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 15 SSW GWO 15 SSE MKL 15 WNW BNA 20 NW CSV 35 S TYS 25 NE ATL 10 SE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JLN 25 S ICT 10 S HSI 15 S SUX 15 S FOD 20 E DSM 40 NNE SZL 20 WSW JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 10 ENE SAD 40 SSE GNT SAF 35 WSW CAO 15 SW LBL 15 NNE GAG 40 N FSI 15 SSW MWL 50 S TYR TXK 50 SE VIH 10 ESE DNV 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ISN 4BQ 25 E WRL 10 SW EVW 55 SE ELY 30 SW U31 55 ESE 4LW 60 SSW PDT 50 NW RDM 10 NNW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL BE POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...PRIOR TO MOVING NWD AND THEN NNEWD TO FAR NERN MS/NWRN AL BY 30/12Z. OTHERWISE...AMPLIFIED POLAR STREAM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN QUEBEC...AND MOBILE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FARTHER TO THE W...STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO MT AND WY. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY... A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF MODERATE/STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN MS...AL AND PERHAPS INTO WRN GA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM ARE HOW SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE /I.E. WHERE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL DEVELOP/ AND LOCATION AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR WITHIN REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE...A BROAD CORRIDOR OF LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN FORECAST. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM OH INTO WRN PA/NY. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS REGION WHICH MAY TEND TO SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY. NONETHELESS...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO STRONG WSWLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC LOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES... WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SHOULD DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 10:48:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 05:48:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508291206.j7TC6TDh017461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291203 SWODY1 SPC AC 291201 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GPT 35 SW LUL 45 NNW MEI 10 ESE CBM 25 SE BHM 30 ENE TOI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM 15 N MCB 15 SSE MKL 15 WNW BNA 20 NW CSV 50 WNW AND 55 N AYS 25 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 15 NW SAD 35 SSE GUP 15 E 4SL 30 NE LVS 40 ESE TCC 35 NNW CDS 30 N FSI 40 N ADM FSM 20 E VIH 55 N DNV 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 10 SE BIL 50 E JAC 15 ENE OGD 55 SE ELY 30 SW U31 55 ESE 4LW 45 E DLS 75 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AL...SRN/ERN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY... HURRICANE KATRINA WAS MOVING ASHORE OVER FAR SERN LA AT 12Z AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MS WITH CENTER OF SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE TN-MS-AL TRI STATE BORDER REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /REFERENCE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER INFO ON KATRINA'S TRACK AND SPECIFIC HURRICANE INFORMATION./ WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE EXPANSIVE WITH 90 KT WINDS AT 1 KM OBSERVED AT MOB YIELDING 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 WAS OBSERVED AS FAR EAST AS TLH THIS MORNING AS WELL. IN ADDITION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO REGENERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PRIMARY RAIN BANDS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL. SHOULD THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE AS SYSTEM LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF TORNADOES ONCE HEATING COMMENCES GIVEN WEAKENING CINH AND LOW LCLS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS BROAD REGION OF EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG HAS REMAINED JUST OFF THE MS/AL COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 80S...THIS ENHANCED SBCAPE AXIS IS SHIFTING NWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS OF 12Z. EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND AND RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES FROM THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AL AND PART OF SRN/ERN MS AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. EVEN AFTER DARK...EXTREME SHEAR ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUSTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES FARTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 15:15:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 10:15:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508291633.j7TGXZtg031178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PNS 55 NE MOB 20 E MEI 20 SSE CBM 25 NNW TCL 20 WSW ANB 30 SSW CSG 10 E AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW GPT 30 WSW LUL 40 N TUP 40 WSW BNA 15 WSW CSV 40 NW AHN 55 NNW AYS 25 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 35 NNW SAD 55 ESE SOW 45 NW ONM 20 E 4SL 45 W RTN 15 N RTN 35 ESE RTN 25 W TCC 40 ESE PVW 30 SW FSI 50 SW TUL 40 NW POF 30 N SLO LAF 25 SSE GRR 40 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT 45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL/SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM ERN MS TO TN AND WRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING NWD ACROSS MS...TO THE E OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEVELOPING SSEWD OVER TX. WITHIN THE PRIMARY NRN STREAM...ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THUS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AREA. A SEPARATE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS NNEWD FROM KATRINA TO THE OH VALLEY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF STATES. ...MS/AL/GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE... HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND NE MS TONIGHT. LOCAL VWP/S NE AND E OF THE STORM CORE SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN GA. THE MORE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS CLOSER TO THE STORM CORE ACROSS SW AL AND SRN MS...WHILE THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FARTHER E ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO SRN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AL WHERE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE OUTER NERN BANDS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 18:39:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 13:39:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508291957.j7TJvIqb016438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291954 SWODY1 SPC AC 291953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PFN 30 NW CEW 50 SW 0A8 25 ENE CBM 30 SSW MSL 20 ENE HSV 15 NW RMG 30 SE RMG 40 NW MCN 40 SSW MCN 25 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT 35 N GPT 40 WSW MEI TUP 35 WSW BNA 35 E BNA CSV 20 W TYS 45 S TYS 40 SE AHN 65 E MCN 30 NE VLD 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 35 SW EPM ...CONT... 15 W CLE 15 SE LUK 55 SE LUK 25 SE UNI DUJ 30 NNW UCA MSS ...CONT... 75 E DUG 55 SE SOW 20 ENE GNT 35 NNE 4SL 35 SW ALS 35 ESE ALS RTN 40 WNW TCC 40 SW CVS 45 NNE HOB BGS 25 WNW ABI ADM HRO 35 WNW MDH 35 SSW HUF 35 E LAF 20 E AZO 30 WNW MBS 40 ENE TVC 40 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT 45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL...WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM MS EWD INTO ERN GA AND AS FAR NORTH AS MIDDLE/ERN TN... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO CENTRAL MS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS CENTER WILL REACH AT LEAST THE SRN TN BORDER BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL..WRN GA AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. ...MS/AL/GA/MIDDLE TN/WRN FL PANHANDLE... AT MID AFTERNOON...SEVERAL N-S BANDS OF CONVECTION WERE STREAMING RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN GA. VWP/S ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW EXTREMELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25 TO 50 KT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...MLCAPE VALUES WERE NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AL/WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD OVERNIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES NWD. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST EAST AND NORTH OF KATRINA/S CENTER ACROSS ERN MS...NWRN AL...AND MIDDLE TN TONIGHT...WHERE THE MOST EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LESS TORNADO COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ..IMY.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 22:59:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 17:59:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508300017.j7U0HEaE001814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300014 SWODY1 SPC AC 300012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S MSL 15 WSW HSV 30 WSW CHA 30 E CHA 65 ESE CHA 30 NNW AHN 40 ENE MCN 35 SE MCN 35 E ABY 15 NW MGR 20 SSW DHN 40 SSW TOI 35 SSW MGM 15 SSE 0A8 50 S MSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 65 SW SEM 40 SW TCL 15 ESE UOX 30 SSW MKL 25 NE MKL 15 S CKV 35 NNE CSV HSS 15 N SPA 30 NNW CAE 35 ESE CAE 35 ENE CHS ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 WNW JAX 25 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CLE 10 ESE LUK 55 WNW HTS 15 SW PKB 15 ENE FKL 30 NE JHW 40 NW ROC ...CONT... 85 W CAR 35 SW EPM ...CONT... 20 SW ELP 30 WNW ALM 30 SSE 4CR 40 SW CVS 45 NNE HOB 20 E BGS 50 NE ABI 20 NNW DUA 60 SE HRO 20 W MDH 35 SSW HUF 35 E LAF 20 E AZO 30 WNW MBS 30 WSW APN 45 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT 45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF AL AND GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL AL EWD INTO CNTRL GA...E OF KATRINA CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL MS/W-CNTRL AL AS OF 00Z. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA WITH 0-1 KM SRH 300-700 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-70 KTS. GREATEST THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 02-04Z OVER MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE THIS REGION OF STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. THEREAFTER...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATRINA WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO FAR NERN MS OR SWRN TN BY 30/12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..MEAD.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 04:31:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 23:31:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508300550.j7U5ogwA022684@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300546 SWODY1 SPC AC 300545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S AVL 50 S BLF 15 SSW SSU 35 NW MRB 20 ESE HGR 10 ENE DCA 35 SW RIC 30 SSW RDU 30 SSW SOP 15 NW CAE 20 SSW GSP 20 S AVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 45 SE AGS 25 E ATL 20 E HSV 55 SW BNA 10 ENE OWB 30 SW DAY 10 NNE MFD 15 W BFD 30 SSE BGM 10 WSW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB 45 W SEM 40 SW CBM 35 N GWO 35 WNW MEM 45 NNW POF 35 SSW DEC 25 SSW SBN 70 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 65 ENE STC 20 ESE RST ALO 50 NNE FNB 20 SW BIE 15 SSE GLD 30 ENE PUB 40 W COS 30 NNE RKS 35 ESE WEY 40 NNW HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... PER LATEST NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK FROM SW OF BNA INTO WRN PA OR WRN NY BY 31/12Z. ELSEWHERE... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH /INITIALLY FORMING OVER ERN MT/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ...CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PER NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SW OF BNA INTO CNTRL KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND JUST TO THE W OF OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO ERN PA. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WILL MAINTAIN BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-500 M2/S2/ FROM LOW TRACK EWD INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION AND ATLANTIC COAST...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...SUPERPOSITION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WAS THE CASE ON TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ALONG AND E OF LOW TRACK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. ...NRN PLAINS... DESPITE MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER FAR ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE W IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UP AND DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 15:22:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 10:22:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508301640.j7UGeOPi009751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301638 SWODY1 SPC AC 301637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE AND 45 NNW HSS 25 E JKL 20 W CRW 35 SSW EKN 30 NW MRB 10 SE MRB 50 NE CHO 35 NE DAN 30 NE CLT 35 SSE SPA 15 ENE AND. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE AYS 35 S MCN 30 N MCN 55 NNW AHN 30 NNW TYS 35 N LOZ 20 N UNI 30 SSE BFD 30 W AVP 15 SW ABE 35 SSW NHK 25 SW FAY 50 NNE AYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 55 S GLD 45 S LIC 40 NNW LAR 10 W LND 40 SE MQM 25 ESE BTM 50 W LWT 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 45 ESE 7R4 50 NW CEW 40 NW AUO 35 NE HSV 40 SW CKV 45 NNW EVV 25 NW MIE 45 NW CLE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AREA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK FROM GA TO PA.... ...APPALACHIANS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD FROM MIDDLE TN ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON AND SRN OH TONIGHT. VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES ACCOMPANY THE WARM CORE LOW OVER MUCH OF TN/KY...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN A NARROW DRY SLOT W OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM ERN TN NEWD TOWARD SRN WV. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL PROGRESSES ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER E...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES E OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST E OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER FROM THE PIEDMONT OF SC NEWD INTO S CENTRAL VA. VISIBLE AND COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS IN A SWATH IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND THAT INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 18:45:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 13:45:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508302003.j7UK30Gk022214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302000 SWODY1 SPC AC 301958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE MCN 25 SE MCN 50 NW AHN 40 NNW TYS 30 WNW JKL 25 NNE UNI 30 SE BFD 30 W AVP 25 SW ABE 25 E NHK 35 SW ORF 15 S FAY 35 N SAV 55 W SAV 55 SE MCN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE 7R4 50 NW CEW 40 NW AUO 35 NE HSV 40 SW CKV 45 NNW EVV 25 NW MIE 45 NW CLE ...CONT... 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 55 S GLD 45 S LIC 40 NNW LAR 15 SSW LND 35 SSW MQM 25 ESE 27U 35 SSW 3DU 45 NNW HLN 40 NE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EAST COAST/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA MOVING NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS IS CREATING STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 KT TO 45 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NC AND ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VA. AS KATRINA MOVES NNEWD OVERNIGHT...THE SUPERCELL THREAT MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE STORMS MOVING ACROSS AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. ...DAKOTAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AS STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1250 J/KG ACROSS NRN SD AND WRN ND. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPANDS OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 23:41:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 18:41:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508310059.j7V0xKP8025696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310056 SWODY1 SPC AC 310055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FLO 25 SSW CLT 15 NW HKY 40 ENE TRI 10 E CRW 20 SSE HLG 30 ENE DUJ IPT 25 WSW ABE 25 E NHK 35 SW ORF 35 ESE RWI 25 W OAJ 35 E FLO 30 WNW FLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 40 S GLD 20 ESE COS 45 SSW DGW 45 WNW CPR 15 E COD 15 WSW BIL 15 SW LWT 20 S HVR 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 ENE AQQ 35 E CEW 30 SSW TOI 25 E TOI 45 SE AHN 50 SSE TYS 15 ESE LOZ 55 WNW HTS 20 NE CMH 20 W ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING FROM NRN VA SWD INTO THE CNTRL CAROLINAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN BUOYANCY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINED QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS. EXPECT THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF REMNANT KATRINA TRACK...MAINLY FROM VA INTO S-CNTRL PA. HERE...STRONGEST AMBIENT SHEAR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ AND RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2123. ...NRN PLAINS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL MT PROGRESSING EWD. AT THE SURFACE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN SK SWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND THEN WWD INTO CNTRL WY. INCREASE IN LIGHTNING FROM SERN SK TO NEAR P24 IN WRN ND OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE AND WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG /PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHEN COUPLED WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2124. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 04:01:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 23:01:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508310518.j7V5Ipsl013259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310517 SWODY1 SPC AC 310515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF 35 SSE BWI 30 E CXY 10 SSE BGM 25 SE UCA 15 SW RUT 25 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE IWD 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE JEF UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 40 ESE MEI 10 SE LGC 15 NE CAE 25 SSE RDU 55 SSW RIC 35 NW RIC 25 NE SHD 40 NW EKN 30 ENE ZZV 40 NE CLE ...CONT... 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD GUP 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 20 W LIC 25 NNW LHX 30 SW LAA 40 NNE EHA 10 NNE DDC 20 ESE RSL 35 NNW CNK 10 W OFK 35 ENE ABR 75 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF KATRINA INITIALLY OVER NWRN PA/WRN NY WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD TODAY ACROSS NRN NY/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO ERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NWRN ONTARIO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ...CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. FARTHER TO THE S AND E...ANTICIPATED STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM ERN MD/DE NEWD ACROSS NJ/ERN PA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-350 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-55 KTS. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS. DESPITE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. ...CNTRL/ERN NM... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 11:12:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 06:12:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508311229.j7VCTfQi028904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311226 SWODY1 SPC AC 311225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE NEL 15 S AVP 10 SSE BGM 30 NE MSS ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 15 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 35 NE AKO 30 SW BBW 10 W OFK 10 SW ATY 25 ESE JMS 15 N BIS 35 SSE ISN 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 45 ENE IWD 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE JEF UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 40 ESE MEI 10 SE LGC 15 NE CAE 25 SSE RDU 55 SSW RIC 35 NW RIC 25 NE SHD 40 NW EKN 30 ENE ZZV 40 NE CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO MUCH OF WRN/SRN ENGLAND... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SURFACE REMNANTS OF KATRINA NEWD INTO FAR SRN QUEBEC BY LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND AID IN PULLING RICH...TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO MOST OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE ATOP 70+ SFC DEW POINTS AS 50 KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. VWP AT ALB/KENX INDICATED 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2 AT 12Z...AND THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE COMMON FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC NNEWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR TODAY. DESPITE THE EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT LAPSE RATES...BUT MAY ACT TO CAP BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERED AFTERNOON HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS BAND OF ASCENT NOW SPREADING NEWD INTO CENTRAL PA/NY SHIFTS INTO ERN NY BY 18Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE INHIBITIVE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE /AS IS TYPICAL WITH LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS/. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS LOW CENTER LIFTS NNEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S. AND BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. DEEP ASCENT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINES...AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 15:18:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 10:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508311635.j7VGZlrK030631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311634 SWODY1 SPC AC 311632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 25 S AUG ...CONT... 10 E ACY 20 NW MSV 20 ENE UCA 30 E MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N CMX 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 40 NE VIH 25 E UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NNW EAR 20 ESE OFK 20 NW OTG 10 NW AXN 40 SSE TVF 50 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 35 E MEI 20 NNW AUO 35 S CAE 30 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE WAL 30 ENE BWI 20 SE ELM 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.... ...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NEWD ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. E OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-MID 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY/ERN PA/ERN VA...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/NY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SE NY...THOUGH RELATIVELY THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY NWD TOWARD QUEBEC...AND THE IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL...A BELT OF 40-50 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE NEWD MOVING HURRICANE REMNANTS... RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...SRN MN/IA/NW MO/ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN MN/IA...AND SEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD NW OK AND NW MO. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE PLAINS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 18:41:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 13:41:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508311958.j7VJwgXY015374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311956 SWODY1 SPC AC 311955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ACY 25 W MSV 10 ENE UCA 20 ENE MSS ...CONT... 50 N BML 25 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NNW EAR 20 ESE OFK 20 NW OTG 10 NW AXN 40 SSE TVF 50 W RRT ...CONT... 60 N CMX 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 40 NE VIH 25 E UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 35 E MEI 20 NNW AUO 35 S CAE 30 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 25 ENE CXY 10 ESE ELM 25 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN US... ...NERN STATES... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES INTO SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF ERN NY. MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHICH WILL FUEL THE STORMS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW FROM WRN IA INTO CNTRL KS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG MOST OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GRADUALLY EXPANDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 23:41:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 18:41:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509010058.j810wt8V021687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010056 SWODY1 SPC AC 010054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE YUM 50 NNW GBN 35 ENE PHX 10 SSW SOW 15 N FMN 20 ENE GUC 20 ESE 4FC 45 E GLD 25 SE CNK 20 W LWD 35 W ALO 20 NNW RST 45 SSW DLH 35 NW ELO ...CONT... 110 NNE CMX 40 ESE AUW 25 W MMO 40 NE VIH 15 WNW SGF 25 S PNC 30 N CSM 25 SE AMA 55 SSW LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 10 NW NIR 55 S CLL 50 N BPT 40 NNW BTR 55 ESE MEI 35 WSW MCN 50 SE AGS 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ISP POU 25 WSW GFL 25 NW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG WIND FIELD AHEAD OF REMNANT LOW KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS NRN AND ERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AIR MASS WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR WAS WARM AND VERY MOIST WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES APPARENTLY LIMITING OVERALL STRENGTH OF STORM UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM UNDERGOING ABSORPTION BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CANADA SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS MA...NH...AND ME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD. AT PRESENT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS LINEAR IN CHARACTER WITH AREA SRM LOOPS INDICATING ONLY WEAK SHEAR COUPLETS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY ON LEADING EDGE OR TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE LINES. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM MHT AND BGR...AS WELL AS LATEST RAOB FROM CAR...INDICATED PRONOUNCED SRH AND CLASSIC HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THEREFORE...ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD STILL PRODUCE IN A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST TONIGHT. ...IA/MO... DEEP LAYER OCCLUDED CYCLONE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND TRAILS SWD/SWWD FROM THE MIDWEST TO KS/OK. DESPITE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING OVER IA/MO...GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE INHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING WILL FURTHER RESTRICT TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 00:31:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 19:31:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508010100.j7110W3N029929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010058 SWODY1 SPC AC 010057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 20 W HTL 20 SSW RHI 55 ENE STC 25 ESE BRD 45 NE BRD 15 NNW HIB 35 NW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 30 SW BWG 25 SSE HTS 25 ESE HLG 20 WSW FKL 20 WSW ERI ...CONT... 25 ESE DTW 30 WSW JXN 35 SE MKE RFD 30 ENE MLI 45 NNW STL 10 S COU 30 N SZL 10 SSW FLV 30 SSE MHK 25 NW HUT 40 SW GLD 35 NNE LHX 45 ENE ALS 15 NW 4SL 25 NNE GNT 50 WNW ONM 20 WNW TCS 45 W ELP ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 45 WSW DRA 70 ESE TVL 40 W SVE 30 WNW RBL 45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 10 NNW PDT 10 WNW PUW 70 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 55 WSW GGW 90 E LWT 40 SSW MLS 10 NE REJ 45 NW PHP 30 SSE PHP 25 E MHN 15 SW BBW 20 N EAR 25 NE GRI 15 NNW OLU 20 SSW BKX 35 ENE ATY 15 NW AXN 35 NNW BRD 45 WNW HIB 20 E INL ...CONT... 45 N BML 25 ESE EEN 20 NNE BDR 20 WNW ABE 40 SSW MRB 35 SW SHD 10 WSW ROA 30 NNW GSO 25 WNW RDU RWI 45 E RWI 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN GREAT LAKES... BROAD REGION OF WEAKLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS WITHIN THE BASE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM CNTRL MN NEWD TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. THE SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTS A LAKE BREEZE CONFLUENCE ZONE NEAR DLH AND THIS LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES EWD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ISOLATED TSTM CELLS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ON THE TROUGH OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALSO NEAR THE TROUGH/LAKE BREEZE INTERSECTION AROUND DLH. STRONGER STORMS WERE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CANADIAN RADAR NORTH OF SAULT STE. MARIE IN ONTARIO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND VWP AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATING VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30KT...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO PARTS OF LWR MI THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVITY OVER SRN ONTARIO MAY ALSO SPREAD ESEWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...PERHAPS MOVING INTO EXTREME WRN NY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...SRN CA/SWRN AZ... WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION HAS AGAIN FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AZ AND SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE STORMS HAS ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG WNWWD PROPAGATION WAS BEING AIDED BY ESELY FLOW THROUGH THE LWR TROPOSPHERE. STRONG OUTFLOW WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE PHX AREA AND MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE MCD NUMBER 1908 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ..CARBIN.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 04:53:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Jul 2005 23:53:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508010521.j715LuOb032104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010519 SWODY1 SPC AC 010518 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N OLF 15 ESE GDV 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 55 NNE SHR 45 SSE BIL 35 NW COD 35 ESE WEY 30 NNE IDA 35 ESE SUN 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 SSW S80 40 SSW S06 35 SW FCA 40 WNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GFL MWN PWM 20 NW BOS BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 35 NNW SYR 20 W GFL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 30 N P07 60 SSW SJT 45 W TPL 10 WNW GGG 30 ENE PBF 55 W HTS 20 NNW PKB 35 SSW CAK 45 W TOL 15 E BEH 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 40 SW IRK 15 E OJC 25 NW EMP 10 SE SLN 20 NNE RSL 40 S MCK 30 WSW GLD 30 NNW TAD 65 S ALS 30 SSW ABQ 35 S DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 20 SSW DLS 45 SE EPH 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 WSW BIS 35 WNW HON 45 E BKX 50 E BRD 30 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ID/MT AND A SMALL PART OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN STATES THIS PERIOD AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE WCNTRL U.S. CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD... MOSTLY WEAK...DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. GREATER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THESE AREAS. ...NORTHEAST... MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM SRN CANADA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACTING ON WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TSTM INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. WHILE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SHOWERS COULD INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION...POCKETS OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NY...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM UPDRAFTS PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN BANDS OR LINE SEGMENTS. WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW HAIL REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ...ID/MT... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP. THIS IMPULSE IS FCST TO LIFT ACROSS NWRN WA AND BC EARLY TODAY WITH 12-HOUR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-40M BRUSHING PARTS OF ID AND MT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NRN ID AND WRN MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIFT ACTING ON NWRN EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME. WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EVOLVE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER FORCING AND RESULT IN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ID ACROSS WRN AND NRN MT. LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...ERN MT/WY AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED IN DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WLY FLOW WILL AID IN MOVING THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EAST INTO HOT AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH. A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 12:18:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 07:18:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508011247.j71ClQc5022515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011245 SWODY1 SPC AC 011243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW ART MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN 40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 30 SE SJT 15 NW TPL 10 WNW GGG 30 ENE PBF 55 W HTS 20 NNW PKB 35 SSW CAK 45 W TOL 15 E BEH 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 40 SW IRK 15 E OJC 25 NW EMP 10 SE SLN 20 NNE RSL 40 S MCK 30 WSW GLD 30 NNW TAD 65 S ALS 30 SSW ABQ 35 S DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 20 SSW DLS 45 SE EPH 40 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 20 WSW BIS 35 WNW HON 45 E BKX 50 E BRD 30 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ID AND MT.... UPPER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMPLITUDE THIS MORNING THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL POSE A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONG HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS STORMS INTERACT WITH MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NEB/SD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 20-30 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. MORE ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD AFTER DARK INTO CENTRAL KS/NEB...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...MT/ID... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF ID/MT BY THIS EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. PROGRESSION OF STORMS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND LESS UPPER FORCING. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY. MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS NEAR STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 15:39:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 10:39:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508011608.j71G85wh025774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011554 SWODY1 SPC AC 011552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW ART MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN 40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 15 SSW SJT 15 WSW BWD 40 S DUA 10 ENE PBF 20 SSW PAH 45 NNE BWG 35 NNE JKL 15 NNW PKB 30 S CAK 15 SSE JXN 30 NW AZO 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 55 SW IRK 35 NNE JLN 25 SW JLN 15 NNE BVO SLN 30 N RSL 40 E GLD 50 ESE LIC 65 S ALS 25 SSW ABQ 40 SSE DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 20 SSW NID 10 E BIH 10 WSW LOL 65 SSE 4LW 50 E ACV 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 15 SW DLS 30 SSE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MOT 45 NE BIS 50 ESE MBG RWF 50 ENE STC 30 WNW IWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...NERN STATES... WILL CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS BECOMING MDTLY UNSTABLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO LOW/MID 80S. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK HOWEVER 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING/DEVELOPING E/SEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NRN ROCKIES... S/WV TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS PAC NW INTO SWRN CANADA WITH 40-50KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS INTERIOR OF PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY...SOME OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS ID AND WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN MT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS FROM HIGH BASED STORMS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS IT SPREADS E OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ...HIGH PLAINS ALONG WY/NE/SD BORDER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD WWD INTO ERN WY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S THIS AM. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MDT CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT...A FEW PULSE SEVERE WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGH BASED STORM TYPE PRIOR TO SUNSET. ...SWRN U.S... CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK MOST AREAS...LIMITING THE THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 1 19:14:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 14:14:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508011943.j71Jh3oU007544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011940 SWODY1 SPC AC 011938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 35 NE PBG 15 NW LCI 25 N ORH BDL 25 W POU 10 SSE ELM 15 W ROC 30 WNW ART MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 50 SE GTF 15 WSW LVM 35 NNE IDA 40 ESE SUN 40 WSW SUN 40 NNE BOI 35 SW S80 45 SSW S06 45 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLS 50 NNW REJ 20 NW RAP 25 SSW CDR 25 S SNY 35 W AKO 15 WNW FCL 50 S DGW 40 NNW DGW 40 SW 4BQ 20 NNW 4BQ 40 ESE MLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 40 E FST 15 SSW SJT 15 WSW BWD 40 S DUA 10 ENE PBF 20 SSW PAH 45 NNE BWG 25 N BKW 25 WSW AOO DUJ 10 WSW DTW 30 NW AZO 20 WSW JVL 30 SW DBQ OTM 30 ENE FLV 20 S MHK 30 N RSL 40 E GLD 50 ESE LIC 65 S ALS 25 SSW ABQ 40 SSE DMN ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 15 NE NID 50 ESE TVL 20 NW WMC 50 ESE 4LW MHS 40 NE 4BK 15 SW EUG 15 SW DLS 30 SSE EPH 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 45 NE BIS 50 ESE MBG 40 WNW RWF 30 ESE BRD 30 WNW IWD ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY 15 NW BWI 25 NNW GSO 20 NW SOP 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...NORTHEAST... OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST/EXPECTED SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED OVER THIS REGION. AS OF 19Z MLCAPES ARE NOW AOA 1500 J/KG WITHIN AN AXIS ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO ERN NY AND VT...WITH A SEPARATE AXIS OVER SRN ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S SUPPORT MORNING FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE-SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO MORE OF NEW ENGLAND AWAY FROM MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER ERN NY...AND JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES... WEAK IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO ID THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORM ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FROM WRN WY INTO WRN MT/CENTRAL ID. ATTM... EXPECTED COMBINATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITIES OVER ID/WRN MT AS LOW ELEVATION TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 80S. THUS...EXPECT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKER AND LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WRN/CENTRAL WY AND S-CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS AREA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR SERN MT ALONG THE WY/SD BORDER INTO SERN WY. WINDS HAVE GONE WLY INTO NERN WY...THOUGH REMAIN SELY INTO WRN NEB PANHANDLE/WRN SD. IN ADDITION...MLCAPES ALREADY AOA 1000 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH AT 19Z. WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKER CAP EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEAR LEE TROUGH OR BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SPREAD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST AT BEST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 20-30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 08/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 00:39:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 01 Aug 2005 19:39:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508020108.j7218YKm002495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020106 SWODY1 SPC AC 020104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 35 ENE OLF 10 SSW OLF 25 SW GGW 45 NE LWT 10 NW 3HT 40 SW BZN 25 S DLN 35 SSW 27U 65 SW 27U 80 S S80 45 SW S80 40 ENE S80 20 NNE MSO 60 NNE MSO 30 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CZZ 45 S DAG 60 E NID 15 SE TPH 35 WSW U31 25 WSW WMC 75 S BNO PDT 40 W PUW 10 NE GEG 80 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL 35 NE JMS 50 NNW ABR 35 SE MBG 30 W PIR 35 SW PIR 25 WSW 9V9 25 S MHE 25 NNE SUX 30 WNW DSM 35 S P35 15 ESE FLV 25 SSE HSI 10 SSW EAR 20 NE MCK 20 N GLD 40 ESE LIC 25 W LHX 25 WSW TAD 25 NE SAF 10 ENE ABQ 25 N TCS 15 E SVC 65 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BID 35 S POU 30 ESE IPT 20 SW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S OSC 20 SW HTL 30 ENE MTW 35 ESE CWA 35 WNW AUW 10 NE IWD 15 SSE CMX 15 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 25 SE HDO 35 S SJT 40 NNE SJT 40 E ABI 20 ESE TYR 25 WSW ELD 65 ENE PBF 30 NNW DYR 35 NE PAH 35 SW SDF 20 SSW LOZ 15 WNW GSP 15 NW CAE 40 WSW FLO 35 ENE FLO 30 NE EWN 35 NW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ID/MT... ...NRN ROCKIES TO NERN MT... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON HOT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ID ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUSTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. CURRENT ACTIVITY NOW MOVING NEWD OVER ID AND SWRN MT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS NEAR A WARM FRONT ZONE ACROSS NERN MT. STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING MOVES EAST. LATEST GGW SOUNDING INDICATED THAT STORMS IN THESE REGIME WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. ...ND/SD... A NUMBER OF STORMS HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN/SCNTRL ND...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS OVER WRN AND NCNTRL SD. THESE CELLS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE OVER ND...AND NEAR DRYLINE/FRONTAL ZONE INTERSECTION OVER SD. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO INCREASE INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED...RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WINDS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A BAND OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NERN CO AND THE NEB PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL FORCING AND WAS OCCURRING IN WEAKER SHEAR AS OPPOSED TO STORMS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES...RESULTANT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION COULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ...NORTHEAST... A COUPLE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS REMAIN OVER PARTS OF VT/NH/ME AND NY THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A COUPLE MORE HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ONGOING CONVECTION... OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. ...LWR CO RIVER VLY... AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PULSE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA/NV AND WRN AZ. ..CARBIN.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 05:24:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 00:24:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508020553.j725rUEa024813@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020550 SWODY1 SPC AC 020548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW INL 15 NE FAR 65 SSW FAR 15 S ABR 35 WSW YKN 20 NE BUB 10 S BBW 35 NNE IML 15 ESE SNY BFF 55 WNW CDR 35 S GCC 40 S SHR 40 SSW COD 25 SSE MQM 20 ENE DLN 45 E 3HT 65 SSW GGW 25 NNE OLF 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 40 S ABI 35 NNE ACT 10 SW TXK 25 NW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 30 S FLO 30 W OAJ 25 NNE RWI 55 E DAN 25 NNW GSO 35 ESE TRI 10 NW TRI 35 E PKB 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 30 SSE DBQ OTM 35 W P35 30 S BIE 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 40 W RTN 10 NE ABQ 35 SSW DMN ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT/NRN WY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVES FROM THE NRN/CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE SCNTRL CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN GREAT PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS MT AND ND...LOWER HEIGHTS AND DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP A LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH CROSSING ERN CANADA. IN THE WEST...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DECAYING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...FROM THE SWRN DESERTS NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FINALLY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH/GULF COAST BENEATH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. ...NRN ROCKIES...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPR MS VLY... LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ROCKIES/SRN MT NEWD TO NRN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ID/MT/WY AND THEN SPREADING EWD ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CAPPING INVERSION FROM THE CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT STORM FORMATION BUT ALLOW FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THIS REGION. FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD ACT ON THIS HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...FROM NERN MT ACROSS ND AND INTO NWRN MN. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND N-S LEE TROUGH IN THESE AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE NEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS FROM ACTIVITY MERGING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE EVENING. DEEP MIXING AND STRONG HEATING WITHIN LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ORIENTED N-S ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS. WEAK SHEAR BUT HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS INTENSE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND ALONG RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN/WI. INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK...COULD FURTHER SUSTAIN SEVERE HAIL THREAT DESPITE LIMITED SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OR TWO FROM SD/NEB EWD TO THE UPR MS VLY DURING THE NIGHT. SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND/NERN NY... DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE WILL BACK SWWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN NY ACROSS VT/NH AND ME BY AFTERNOON. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING AND SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF INTENSE STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. ...SRN CA/AZ/SRN NV... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INTENSE HEATING WILL AGAIN SUSTAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED BUT VIGOROUS TSTMS DRIFTING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ...AND NORTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA. CELL INTERACTIONS/MERGERS WILL PROMOTE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS RESULTING. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 11:48:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 06:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021217.j72CHCFJ001686@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021214 SWODY1 SPC AC 021212 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 30 WNW BWD 35 SSW DAL 10 SW TXK 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 25 WNW OAJ 40 E RWI 45 S RIC 25 NNW GSO 35 ESE TRI 10 NW TRI 30 E PKB 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 40 W RTN 10 NE ABQ 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SRN MT/ND/SD/MN... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR INITIATION IS FROM CENTRAL ND INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING...WHERE GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS AREA. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHERN MT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ...WESTERN MT/WY... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF MONSOONAL PLUME WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MT/NORTHWEST WY. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. ...NORTHEAST STATES... MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPULSE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NY/VT/NH/ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF AIR MASS CAN BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME WARRANTED. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF AZ/SRN CA/SRN NV WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 16:03:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 11:03:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021632.j72GW1HH032523@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021621 SWODY1 SPC AC 021619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM RUT 25 WNW PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 20 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 20 ESE PKB 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NWRN MN... ...NEW ENGLAND... STG NWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY TRACKS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ME THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S AND A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF IMPULSE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ME AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. TRAILING PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S INTO NRN VT/NH DURING AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY AS 40-50 KT OF NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS AREA. ...ERN MT/DAKOTAS/NWRN MN... STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WRN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST FORCING AND WINDS WITH TROUGH REMAINS N OF BORDER...30-40 KT OF FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT INTO NRN PLAINS. STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ND WHERE A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD INTO N CENTRAL MT WILL BE A FEATURE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT FIRST AND THEN INTO WRN ND. WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER ND...ONCE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ND. PRIMARY THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. ...INTERMOUNTAINS AND SWRN U.S... PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM DESERTS OF SERN CA AND AZ NWD THRU UT/WRN CO INTO WY. LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MANY AREAS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK SRN CA/AZ...20-30 KT OF MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN NV DOES INCREASE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT INTO UT THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CLUSTERS. FURTHER S ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STILL LIKELY MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS AZ AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 16:17:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 11:17:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021646.j72GkHJk007323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021644 SWODY1 SPC AC 021619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 10 N 81V 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT 80 E LWT OLF 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM RUT 25 WNW PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 20 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 55 S TPH 30 N TPH 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 40 N S80 35 ESE 3TH 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 15 S BWG 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 20 ESE PKB 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSW MTC 30 NNE BEH 20 SW RFD 20 N UIN 50 S P35 20 NNW MHK 20 ENE GLD 10 NNW LHX 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 45 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NWRN MN... ...NEW ENGLAND... STG NWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AS S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY TRACKS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ME THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 60S AND A FEW HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF IMPULSE...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG AT 16Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ME AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. TRAILING PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S INTO NRN VT/NH DURING AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY AS 40-50 KT OF NWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS AREA. ...ERN MT/DAKOTAS/NWRN MN... STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WRN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STRONGEST FORCING AND WINDS WITH TROUGH REMAINS N OF BORDER...30-40 KT OF FLOW ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT INTO NRN PLAINS. STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS ND WHERE A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD INTO N CENTRAL MT WILL BE A FEATURE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT FIRST AND THEN INTO WRN ND. WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER ND...ONCE CAP HAS WEAKENED CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER MT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ND. PRIMARY THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. ...INTERMOUNTAINS AND SWRN U.S... PLENTIFUL MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM DESERTS OF SERN CA AND AZ NWD THRU UT/WRN CO INTO WY. LESS CLOUDINESS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MANY AREAS. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK SRN CA/AZ...20-30 KT OF MID/UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN NV DOES INCREASE THREAT OF SEVERE NWD INTO UT/WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT INTO UT THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE CLUSTERS. FURTHER S ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STILL LIKELY MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS AZ AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE STRONGLY HEATED LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 2 19:12:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 14:12:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508021941.j72JfNXn030654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021938 SWODY1 SPC AC 021937 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 35 WSW HIB HON PIR 60 N PHP 25 SSE SHR 40 NNW COD LVM 3HT OLF 70 NNE OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM RUT MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DSM 45 WSW ALO 35 NW MLI 10 E BRL 25 NW UIN 20 WSW IRK 40 NNE STJ 55 SE OMA 50 WNW DSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MTC 30 SSW IMT 45 N EAU 40 NNW MKT 10 SSE MHN 15 SE LIC 35 SSE RTN 40 NE 4CR 35 SSW DMN ...CONT... 30 SE ELP 20 ESE INK 25 SE ABI 15 SE MWL 40 S MLC 30 NNW LIT 45 N POF 15 WSW MDH 45 NNE PAH 35 WNW CAE 20 S FLO 20 NW OAJ 35 E RIC 20 E CHO 10 NNE HKY 15 W TRI 10 NNW HLG 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 50 S CRP 45 S LRD ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 15 WNW DAG 35 N BAM 50 ENE 4LW 35 WSW BNO 25 ESE FCA 50 N FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST... SATL INDICATES THAT THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY 21Z. STRONG TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH STRONG WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PER CARIBOU RADAR. FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE COAST OF ME BY 22Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY/SRN QUEBEC AND INSTABILITY IS GROWING AGAIN OWING TO HEATING BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. CU STREETS OBSERVED IN VSBL SATL WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP INTO CBS AND DROP SEWD TOWARD NRN PARTS OF NY/VT/NH LATER THIS AFTN...VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM SOLUTION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN ME INTO NRN NY STATE. MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS/SUPERCELLS. FARTHER N...LOW-TOPPED CB/S NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THEY SHIFT SSEWD INTO NRN ME INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN CLEARING/HEATING OVER THIS REGION. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS NOW DEVELOPING OVER SD NEAR MOBRIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO SERN ND/NERN SD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS WY. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND ERN MT. AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVERSPREADING THE DAKOTAS MAY DELAY ONSET OF STORMS A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE/HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. MOST LIKELY REGION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND AND NRN SD. WITH EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING OVER SRN MT/NRN WY AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ONE OR TWO MCS/S MAY EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED AFTER DARK WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS.. 08/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 00:40:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2005 19:40:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508030109.j7319N9s008118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030107 SWODY1 SPC AC 030105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT TUE AUG 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ANJ 15 SSW IMT 30 S IWD 45 SW DLH 40 WSW AXN 15 E PIR 15 NNE RAP 30 NW GCC 45 ENE COD 40 ENE WEY 30 SW LVM 30 N BZN 35 SE GTF 50 ENE GTF 40 SSE HVR 65 ESE HVR 35 SSE GGW 20 WNW SDY 45 NNW P24 70 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 25 N RAL 70 E TPH 35 ESE OWY 50 NW SUN 40 N MSO 30 NE CTB ...CONT... 55 NNE MTC 30 W HTL 30 ENE CID 10 WSW SUX 25 SW LBF 45 WNW GLD 40 SW RTN 45 N ALM 75 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BOS 20 SSE GFL 10 SSE UCA 10 S ITH 40 ESE BFD 15 NW DUJ 10 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 30 SSW SJT 10 WNW BWD 20 NE SEP 15 E DAL 20 SW TXK 35 NE ELD 30 ENE GLH 10 SSW CBM 20 SE BHM 15 NNE LGC 50 NE MCN 40 SE AGS 30 SSW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...TO THE UPR GREAT LAKES... ...DAKOTAS/MN... A SMALL SEVERE STORM CLUSTER HAS FORMED NEAR LEE-TROUGH FRONTAL ZONE INTERSECTION ACROSS NRN ND. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG INHIBITION NEAR SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH OVER NRN SD. MAGNITUDE OF INHIBITION AND CURRENTLY LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO STORM EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT...AND AN INCREASE MASS TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION... ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...OR AT LEAST SUSTAIN ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD BE OFFSET BY STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO MAINTAIN LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND THREATS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ...MT... SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN/SERN MT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MEAN LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SUGGESTS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WAS CRESTING THE UPR RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MN. THIS IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SEWD ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. THESE AREAS ARE ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND...PERHAPS MERGING INTO A SMALL MCS LATER TONIGHT. ...LWR CO RIVER VLY... POORLY ORGANIZED BUT STOUT STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SRN...CNTRL...AND NWRN AZ THIS EVENING. MORE ISOLATED CELLS WILL ALSO PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS FROM SRN CA TO SRN NV. VERY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THIS PULSE/MULTICELL ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHEAST... LOSS OF HEATING APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECLINE IN OVERALL STORM INTENSITY FROM NY TO ME THIS EVENING. REMAINING CONVECTION AHEAD OF NWLY-FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ONLY POSE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF A STRONG WIND GUST...OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 05:07:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 00:07:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508030536.j735aRep029104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030534 SWODY1 SPC AC 030532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW APN 30 NW MKG 15 NNE DBQ 30 ENE OLU 20 NW EAR 45 ESE AKO 25 SSW AKO 10 NW FCL 30 ENE LAR 40 SE DGW 35 W PHP 45 ENE MBG 20 E FAR 45 ESE BJI 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 WNW FST 60 SE MAF 25 NNW ABI 35 SW ADM 40 S HRO 45 SSW JBR 35 NW CHA 20 WSW 5I3 35 E PKB 30 ESE TOL 25 NW SPI 30 S P35 25 WSW HLC 25 SSE LHX 25 NE 4CR 15 W ELP ...CONT... 20 NNW SAN 10 NNW RAL 20 NNE DAG 60 E U31 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 30 N GTF 20 W HVR 50 ESE HVR 10 SE SDY 15 ESE P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... 35 NNE PBG 15 SE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY TO WRN/UPR GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WCNTRL CANADA WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS LARGE ENOUGH THAT STRONGER WLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS STATES AND UPR MS VLY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO A HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB...ENEWD ACROSS IA AND SRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN/SERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A BROAD SWATH OF WEAK ELY FLOW AT MID LEVEL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WILL EXIST FROM THE TN VLY...WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPR MS VLY...WRN GREAT LAKES... CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THIS MORNING WITHIN UNSTABLE LARGE SCALE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER CANADA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION FROM WI ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI. MEANWHILE...STRONGLY CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT. SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ON AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT EXPANDING AND DEEPENING COLD POOLS WITH OUTFLOW FURTHER ENHANCING MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF LARGER SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE FROM SERN SD AND NRN NEB ACROSS SWRN MN AND NWRN IA IF STORM MERGERS BECOME ALIGNED NORMAL TO STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 11:59:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 06:59:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508031227.j73CRuYV020526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031223 SWODY1 SPC AC 031222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MKG DBQ OLU MCK AKO FCL 25 NE LAR 55 W CDR RAP MBG FAR HIB 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 WNW FST 50 SE MAF 25 NNW ABI 35 SW ADM 40 S HRO 45 SSW JBR 35 NW CHA 20 WSW 5I3 35 E PKB 30 ESE TOL 25 NW SPI 30 S P35 25 WSW HLC 25 SSE LHX 25 NE 4CR 15 W ELP ...CONT... 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 25 ENE EDW 20 SSE TPH 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 30 N GTF 20 W HVR 50 ESE HVR 10 SE SDY 15 ESE P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... 35 NNE PBG 15 SE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SD/NEB/IA... RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/IA...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SD...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN ALONG/BEHIND BOUNDARY. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATES A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN MN/NORTHWEST IA DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOSE OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /SURFACE TEMPS OVER 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WILL YIELD VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER AND WILL ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATE CAP. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THESE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS TOWARD WI OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND SOUTHEAST WY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SUGGESTING A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. INTENSE STORMS MAY PROGRESS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES AGAIN TODAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER CELLS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY TODAY. ..HART/JEWELL.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 15:49:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 10:49:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508031618.j73GIW0F009321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031613 SWODY1 SPC AC 031611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MKG DBQ OLU MCK AKO FCL 25 NE LAR 55 W CDR 15 NW RAP 20 WNW MBG FAR HIB 50 SE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 25 ENE EDW 20 SSE TPH 20 ENE ENV 15 NNW BYI 50 SSW 27U 60 WNW GTF 20 W HVR 15 NE GGW ISN 25 NW P24 75 NW DVL ...CONT... EFK 15 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW JFK 40 ESE AVP 25 N AVP 25 NNE FKL 15 S FWA 10 WNW STL 40 NW POF 25 NE MEM 45 ENE HSV 30 SE LOZ 40 SW MGW 25 SW MRB 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 35 WNW ROW 35 NW GDP 15 SW MAF 40 NE ABI 35 SW DUA 35 WSW PGO 15 SE FYV 25 WNW SGF 25 ESE STJ 40 W HLC 35 SSE LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... ....UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE WEAKER REFLECTION TRANSLATES EWD INTO NRN PLAINS TODAY. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED HOWEVER RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SPREAD ENEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM COMMON. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS HAS PUSHED SEWD AND EXTENDS FROM SERN MN INTO NRN NEB. PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL EXTEND BY LATE TONIGHT FROM NRN IA SWWD TO SERN CO. MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES AHEAD OF THE LEADING SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO IA AND WI. ADDITIONALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WWD ACROSS SD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF INITIATION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE AREAS WOULD SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE N/NELY FLOW INTO WRN SD ALONG WITH MID LEVEL COOLING WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER E STRONG HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN CAP TO ALLOW STORM INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING VICINITY OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS WI/MN. WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO GIVEN THE WARM LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR. DURING THE EVENING ONE OR MORE MCS'S WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM SD EWD INTO WI ENHANCING A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...NERN U.S... NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING TODAY ACROSS NERN U.S....AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NERN NY/VT SEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNTIL THIS EVENING. ...SWRN U.S... MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS FROM AZ NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT EXPERIENCE ACTIVE CONVECTION TUESDAY PM. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 3 19:45:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:45:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508032014.j73KERCM009235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032010 SWODY1 SPC AC 032008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM APN MKG 10 ENE DBQ 10 NW GRI 20 NE MCK AKO 15 WNW FCL 20 ENE LAR 15 W CDR 40 NE RAP 10 ESE FAR 20 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 10 NW RAL 40 E NID 40 S U31 35 SW ENV 45 W TWF 20 NNW DLN 60 WNW GTF 35 SSW HVR 65 SW GGW 30 SSW REJ 15 ESE GFK 25 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NE PBG PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LHX 25 ENE 4CR 25 SSW ROW 50 NNE HOB 50 ENE AMA 15 N END 30 ESE EMP 15 SSE STJ 40 W HLC 35 SSE LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN CO / SERN WY... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATTM FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES WSWWD INTO CENTRAL SD ATTM -- NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL / ERN SD -- OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZED / BECOME SEVERE. WITH STORMS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN MOVE / DEVELOP SEWD CLOSER TO SURFACE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN UPPER LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ORGANIZED INTO SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WARM / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NY / INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY. WITH MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THOUGH EARLY EVENING. ...AZ AND VICINITY... MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 00:30:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 19:30:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508040059.j740xTEI029720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040056 SWODY1 SPC AC 040054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EAU 45 ESE EAU 30 SSE LSE 30 SSE MCW 35 N OMA 35 SW EAR 35 S IML 20 S SNY 25 ESE AIA 35 SSW ANW 35 WNW YKN 45 E ATY 30 NW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 10 SSW ARB 40 WNW FWA 30 SE MMO 20 E OTM 35 NNW FNB 40 WSW HLC 30 NE TAD 35 ENE ONM 15 NE ALM 35 SE ROW 40 WNW PVW 20 NNW CDS 10 NNE DUA 10 NNE ELD 10 W GWO 30 NNW GAD 35 ENE 5I3 10 WNW SSU 20 E ROA 15 N RDU 35 WNW HSE ...CONT... 30 E DOV 30 SW IPT 25 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW SAN 15 SE NID 55 NNE NID 65 SW ELY 35 SW ENV 20 E PIH 30 ENE DLN 30 N LVM 30 NW BIL 60 NNE SHR 60 SSE 81V 55 NE CDR 35 E PIR 45 NNW AXN 30 W INL ...CONT... 25 N PBG 10 N BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF SD. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING WITH LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT...AND TAKING ON CHARACTERISTICS OF A SQUALL LINE. IF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE WAKE OF SQUALL LINE...FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY INCREASE ENHANCING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. OTHERWISE...SOME HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. FARTHER SW...BROADER ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS ACROSS NEB WHERE NWD DRIFTING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL SURGE. IT APPEARS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NERN NEB WILL SOON EXPERIENCE DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YET TO OVERTURN PER 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LBF AND OMA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT WITH TIME THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AN EWD COMPONENT AND SPREAD TOWARD THE MO RIVER. LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. ...SWRN U.S... NUMEROUS SMALL THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ INTO SERN CA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AS EVENING PROGRESSES. 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEFORE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS DISSIPATE WITHIN PULSE-TYPE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 05:22:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 00:22:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508040550.j745oxtI021415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040549 SWODY1 SPC AC 040547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ACY 25 NE BWI 40 N RIC 50 WSW ORF 15 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S RAL 30 ENE EDW 40 N TPH 55 WSW ELY 55 SE ELY 30 WNW U24 45 WSW MLD 15 NNW IDA 30 ENE DLN 35 E LVM 25 SSE SHR 30 NNE SNY 40 E BUB 20 SW FOD 25 SW CWA 80 ENE MQT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL LAG SFC FRONTAL POSITION SOMEWHAT. RESULTANT WARM SECTOR PROFILES APPEAR LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...INITIATION MAY OCCUR EARLY ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER MI. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD...LIMITING DAYTIME SUNSHINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-CELL TSTM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO ONTARIO. ...MO TO TX PANHANDLE... FARTHER SW...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL COOLING/MOISTENING EXPECTED WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION OF CO INTO WRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORE DISCRETE WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEAR THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS INTO IL. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS...HOWEVER STRONG SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN POTENTIALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS. SWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 11:47:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 06:47:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508041216.j74CGR17004101@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041213 SWODY1 SPC AC 041212 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 35 NE NHK 35 NE RIC 40 ENE RWI 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 25 SSE RAL 25 N RAL 30 E EDW 40 N TPH 55 WSW ELY 55 SE ELY 30 WNW U24 45 WSW MLD 15 NNW IDA 30 ENE DLN 35 E LVM 40 W SHR 45 NNE CPR 20 S BFF 25 N IML 20 E LBF 35 ENE BUB 20 SW FOD 30 WSW CWA 20 SE RHI 20 NNE CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. TAIL END OF TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY. FRONT SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN OK...NORTHERN MO...CENTRAL LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF MI/IND/OH WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT. THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE WEAK WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHWEST... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CA/NV/AZ. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED IN NATURE. ..HART/JEWELL.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 19:18:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 14:18:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508041947.j74JlRAG015207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041944 SWODY1 SPC AC 041920 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF 10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN LWR MI. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW... STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW. EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV ACROSS SWRN AZ. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 19:22:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 14:22:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508041950.j74Jodhl016706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041948 SWODY1 SPC AC 041946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF 10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN LWR MI. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW... STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW. EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV ACROSS SWRN AZ. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 4 21:15:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 16:15:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508042143.j74Lhlbh009799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042141 SWODY1 SPC AC 042139 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN NID TPH 55 WSW ELY 10 SE ELY DPG 45 WSW MLD 35 NNW PIH 10 NNE DLN BZN BIL DGW BFF 10 NNE IML 20 N EAR 50 SW FOD 30 NE MSN 30 WNW MBL 40 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN LWR MI SWWD ACROSS LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO THEN INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM PARTS OF SRN LWR MI SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NRN IL...WITH ADDITIONAL ONGOING STORMS INTENSIFYING ACROSS NRN LWR MI. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVE. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO 30-40 KTS OF FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO THE FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW... STANDARD MONSOON REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE DESERT SW. EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SRN CA TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV ACROSS SWRN AZ. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS MADE FOR A SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN AZ...BUT LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CBS BEGINNING TO FORM. ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF SCNTRL AZ LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MORE OF A THREAT. ..RACY.. 08/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 00:25:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 04 Aug 2005 19:25:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508050054.j750s2mD012107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050051 SWODY1 SPC AC 050050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2005 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PBG 25 SE UCA 30 SSW BGM 30 W MGW 20 SW UNI 40 WNW SDF 10 SSW MDH 35 E UNO 50 NNW LIT 40 NNW ELD 25 SE ELD 30 SSW GLH 30 SW TUP 15 SW HSV 45 ESE CHA 10 ESE AND 25 E CAE 40 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SAN 15 WNW NID 55 S TPH 50 WNW P38 20 S MLF 45 SE U24 45 SSE EVW 30 SSW RKS 45 E CAG 25 WSW COS 20 SE RTN 20 ENE CAO 45 NNE GCK 25 NW FNB 20 SE BRL 30 NNW BEH 35 SE OSC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WHILE STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF HIGH LEVEL WIND SHIFT IS VOID OF MEANINGFUL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING WAS OCCURRING WITHIN MAINLY MARGINAL-WEAK INSTABILITY. ...IL/IND... ILX SOUNDING FROM CNTRL IL INDICATES LITTLE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AT THAT LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED SOMEWHAT ALONG FOCUSED WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...AZ/SERN CA... SCT THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. TUS SOUNDING THIS EVENING SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT NWWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS FAVOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS BENEATH STRONGER PRECIP CORES. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN CA...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION FAVOR LITTLE MORE THAN SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 05:08:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 00:08:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508050537.j755bGV2002224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050535 SWODY1 SPC AC 050533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CZZ 15 E RAL 25 SSW PMD 50 SE FAT 50 WNW TVL 30 S SVE 55 NNW LOL 15 W BAM 70 ENE U31 20 E ELY 45 WNW U24 30 W OGD 20 NNW EVW 20 NNE LAR 25 WNW SNY 45 NNW GLD 40 NE LAA 45 ESE LAA 10 E DDC 40 W EMP 25 NE SZL 20 NW CMI FDY 40 NE CLE 20 S SYR 35 NW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE U.S...AND ACROSS THE ERN U.S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES OBSERVED...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES...AND NO SIGNIFICANT ZONES OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. RESULTANT CONDITIONS FAVOR SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...SRN PLAINS REGION. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ARCING NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEAR SRN MS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL FORM AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY...FORCING COMPLEX STORM INTERACTIONS THAT COULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...AREAL EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS TYPE OF STORM APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE. FARTHER WEST...AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NM INTO SRN NV WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 21-00Z. STORM MOTION ONCE AGAIN FAVORS PROPAGATION TOWARD LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MODEST TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD ENHANCE GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 12:31:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 07:31:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508051300.j75D0L0s032599@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051258 SWODY1 SPC AC 051256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CZZ 15 E RAL 25 SSW PMD 50 SE FAT 50 WNW TVL 30 S SVE 55 NNW LOL 15 W BAM 70 ENE U31 20 E ELY 45 WNW U24 30 W OGD 20 NNW EVW 20 NNE LAR 25 WNW SNY 45 NNW GLD 40 NE LAA 45 ESE LAA 10 E DDC 40 W EMP 25 NE SZL 20 NW CMI FDY 40 NE CLE 20 S SYR 35 NW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... VERY WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE LWR 48 THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS REMAINS WELL TO THE N FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO CNTRL QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WITH CONTAINING MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S/E ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE SERN HALF OF THE U.S...WHERE FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES ARE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.5-2 INCHES. THREE AREAS OF POSSIBLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCENTRATED AND/OR LOCALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY INCLUDE: (1) TN VLY TO SRN APLCNS...WHERE UNINHIBITED HEATING WILL OCCUR IN DEFORMATION ZONE IN NE QUADRANT OF WEAK SW AL UPR LOW. COUPLED WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SLOWLY-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. (2) SRN AZ...SLIGHT READJUSTMENT OF UPR PATTERN MAY YIELD SLIGHTLY FASTER UNIDIRECTIONAL ESELY FLOW OVER REGION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPR LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER WRN AZ/SE CA. OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW WWD-PROPAGATING MOVING STRONG STORMS...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS. (3) FL...LOW LEVEL DRYING AIR APPARENT IN 12Z MIA/EYW RAOBS LIKELY REFLECTS INFLUENCE OF LAST EVENING'S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCV OVER REGION. GREATER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE...WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR SCTD TO BKN STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN PLNS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ARCING NW INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPR LOW. PULSE ENVIRONMENT COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 15:37:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 10:37:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508051605.j75G5llb031564@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051601 SWODY1 SPC AC 051600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW MFR 35 NNE LMT 55 SW BNO 55 NNW OWY 45 E OWY ENV 35 N DPG 35 NE EVW 30 N LAR 45 WSW SNY 15 SSE AKO 45 WNW EHA 30 SSE DDC 25 N SZL 20 NW CMI 10 NNE FDY 25 WSW BFD 25 SE UCA 25 WNW EFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C. IN ADDITION...H85 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES AT MFL DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. THIS HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD SUPPORT 2500+ J/KG MLCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL. MCV FROM YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE E-CENTRAL COAST. CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FEATURE AND SUBSEQUENT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...STORMS WILL REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE AND LIMIT ANY PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS/TN RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR SAG VERY SLOWLY SWD TODAY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER AL WITH ASSOCIATED -8C T0 -9C MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT STRONG HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT TO FOCUS STORMS WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND SSWWD INTO NRN VA WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG HEATING AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE PHI-NYC CORRIDOR. CONTINUED HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH MID LEVEL WINDS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND FOCUS NEAR SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LOW PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...AZ... ELY FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST TODAY WITH H85 TO H5 WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WWD MOVING IMPULSE JUST SOUTH OF TUS WHICH MAY FOCUS CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. THOUGH OVERALL EASTERLIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THEY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 5 19:20:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 14:20:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508051948.j75JmfQ9014394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051946 SWODY1 SPC AC 051944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW MFR 35 NNE LMT 55 SW BNO 55 NNW OWY 45 E OWY ENV 35 N DPG 35 NE EVW 30 NNW LAR CYS 25 ESE FCL 25 NNE COS 30 NNW TAD 30 NE CAO 45 WSW P28 25 E HUT 30 NNW SZL 15 NW MIE 15 ESE MFD 30 N POU 35 WNW AUG 40 NW CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO NJ AND NRN VA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS HAS SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CNTRL MAINE ACROSS SERN NY INTO NERN PA. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG SEABREEZES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AOA 30 KTS/ EXISTS NORTH OF ABOUT KBGM-KBOS. TSTMS N OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZATION /LINE SEGMENTS/ AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER S...FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS MUCH WEAKER...THOUGH GIVEN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ...FL PENINSULA... EAST-WEST COAST SEABREEZES HAVE BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH TSTMS THIS AFTN...OWING TO MINUS 8C H5 TEMPERATURES ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. MULTICELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN VARIOUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ...SWRN DESERTS... SFC OBS ACROSS SRN AZ SHOW THAT ELY FLOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND HAS DOMINATED THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE DESERTS. THIS FLOW IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH TIED TO VORT CENTER NEAR HERMOSILLO. IN FACT...IT APPEARS A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER/COLUMN EXISTS PER 24-HOUR CHANGE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS/GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT THE LATEST SREF IS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE. ..RACY.. 08/05/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 00:28:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 19:28:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508060056.j760utPg000401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060054 SWODY1 SPC AC 060052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2005 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL 25 SSW PMD 35 E SAC 45 E RBL 30 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 45 ENE ACV 20 SW MFR 35 NNE LMT 45 NE 4LW 85 NNW WMC 35 SSW BAM 25 S ELY 25 W U24 25 E EVW 40 ENE RKS 25 WNW LAR FCL 25 NNE COS 20 NE TAD 20 E TCC 40 NNW PVW 50 E AMA 40 ENE GAG 30 SSW ICT 50 N SGF 45 SSW HUF 25 NW UNI 20 NNE MGW 35 N BWI 20 SSE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FEATURE HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEPLETED. ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER THE SERN U.S. THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM SRN NJ...SWWD INTO CNTRL VA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WELL SOUTH OF MARGINAL DEEP WLY FLOW THUS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY PROPAGATE SEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...TX TO SRN CA... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON FROM TX...WWD INTO SRN CA WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON OVERTURN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND WEAKEN WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..DARROW.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 05:20:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 00:20:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508060548.j765mqwA013106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060546 SWODY1 SPC AC 060544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 30 S RAL 35 NNE OXR 25 NNW SBA 25 SE PRB 30 NW BFL 40 ESE FAT 45 WNW TVL 40 SSE LMT 55 W BNO 35 ENE BKE 30 W BTM 15 NE SHR 10 E 81V 30 SSE REJ 45 SSW BIS 40 SW DVL 85 NE DVL ...CONT... 40 NW IWD STC MHE 15 N IML 55 S GLD 25 ESE DDC 40 ENE CNU 20 SSE SPI 20 NNW IND 20 W CMH 35 S CAK 25 SE PSB 20 ENE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MEANINGFUL WLY FLOW CONFINED TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. EVEN SO...SUBTLE LARGE SCALE FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL DRYING FROM THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON TSTM DOWNDRAFTS. MANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED FRIDAY WITHIN THIS PLUME APPARENTLY HAD FAIRLY EFFICIENT WET DOWNBURSTS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF LATER TODAY ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...APPROACHING 8-9C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SLOWLY MOISTEN MID LEVELS RESULTING IN HIGHER RH VALUES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS BEFORE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE MODIFIED SUFFICIENTLY TO LESSEN THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND PROPAGATE SWWD...INTENSIFYING AND DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE FL PENINSULA...WWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. INTO THE DESERT SW REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM INTO NRN AZ. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT AN OUTLOOK. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 12:30:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 07:30:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508061258.j76CwpX6008640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061256 SWODY1 SPC AC 061254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW ELD 20 WSW DYR 50 ENE BWG 35 NE TYS 10 SW RMG 15 NE MEI 25 SE HEZ 45 WNW ESF 20 NW ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 35 ENE CNU 30 SW SPI 35 ESE LAF 35 NNW CMH PSB 20 NE NEL ...CONT... 20 SE SAN 10 NW RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 35 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 55 E BIL 35 W RAP 55 NNW PHP 10 SSE BIS 50 NNE BIS 85 NE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE VLYS REMAINING WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE CLOSED UPR LOW OVER AL/MS MAY OCCUR AS IMPULSE NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS CONTINUES TO SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD. ...LWR TN AND MS VLYS... WITH DEEP SHEAR RANGING FROM WEAK TO VERY WEAK ACROSS THE LWR 48...THE PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...NW FRINGE OF AL/MS UPR LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WET MICROBURSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL DRYING PROGRESSES SW FROM THE TN VLY INTO THE LWR MS VLY...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING STORM DOWNDRAFTS. HEATING SHOULD BE STRONG IN THIS REGION...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8-9C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ANOTHER FAVORABLE FACTOR IS MODEST BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL ENELY FLOW /PER JAN RAOB AND OKO PROFILER/ THAT WILL FOSTER COLD POOL ELONGATION/STORM PROPAGATION TOWARD THE SW...AND MAY PROMOTE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO BANDS. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER... WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. ...ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON FROM THE FL PENINSULA WWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. INTO THE SWRN DESERTS...WHERE MODEST ELY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SRN FRINGE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE. WITH DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER REGION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM INTO NRN/WRN AZ. SOME OF THESE COULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 15:11:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 10:11:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508061539.j76FdocS031438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061537 SWODY1 SPC AC 061536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1036 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE PBF 20 SW PAH 50 ENE BWG 35 NE TYS 10 SSE RMG 30 ENE MEI 20 SE JAN 25 ENE MLU 40 NE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 10 S RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 45 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 45 ENE BIL 35 W RAP 60 SW MBG 50 NNE MBG 25 NNW JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 S CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 35 ENE CNU 45 WSW SPI 20 NNE DNV 20 W MFD 15 E PSB 20 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS... ...MID SOUTH INTO THE CHESAPEAKE... AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO VA. WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER AL/FL PANHANDLE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS...EWD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL REMAIN SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR. THOUGH...HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS /DUE TO SUBSIDENCE NNW OF UPPER LOW/ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS INTO NRN MS/NRN AL/TN. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN PULSE-TYPE...REPORTS MAY BE CONCENTRATED ENOUGH ACROSS THIS AREA TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL SLGT RISK AREA. ...FL... COMBINATION OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS AROUND -8C/ AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF FL BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND GIVEN WEAK WLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. RESULTANT INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY INTO CENTRAL/ERN FL WITHIN VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MITIGATED BY LACK OF SHEAR/STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...NRN MS TOWARDS THE NRN RED RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW DIGGING TOWARDS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO ERN ND/NRN MN LATER TODAY. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED OVER THIS REGION...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z /I.E. MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KT/. PRIMARY NEGATIVE WILL BE OVERALL SUBSIDENT REGIME IN WAKE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ONLY THE ETA-KF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR NRN MN. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES...THOUGH APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SLGT RISK ATTM. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 6 19:03:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 14:03:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508061932.j76JWETh009271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061929 SWODY1 SPC AC 061927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JAN 35 S GLH 25 NNE GLH 15 N MKL 15 NW HOP 65 SW LEX 25 NNE LOZ 35 SE LOZ 15 NNW RMG 10 SW BHM 35 N MEI 30 NW JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 10 S RAL 25 NE SBA 40 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 55 NNE BFL 45 W TVL 55 E MHS 55 SE RDM 40 NE BKE 30 W BTM 45 ENE BIL 35 W RAP 60 SW MBG 50 NNE MBG 25 NNW JMS 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 25 S CMX 25 SW RWF 45 SSW BBW 15 WNW HLC 35 S RSL 30 ENE CNU 40 SSE SPI 15 ENE CMH 30 ESE PSB 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NEWD TO SERN KY... ...MID-SOUTH TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA THIS AFTN. VWPS SHOW ENHANCED...ALBEIT WEAK...UNIDIRECTIONAL NELY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW. TSTMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH. ANTICIPATING A REGION WITH ANY HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS VERY DIFFICULT IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME/HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT THAT FAVORS BRIEF PULSE TYPE UPDRAFTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO ARC FROM NRN MS NEWD INTO ERN KY WHERE MLCAPES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...TSTMS COULD CLUSTER TOGETHER AND PROPAGATE SWWD PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ HAIL...PRIMARILY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST UNSTABLE /SLGT RISK AREA/. OUTSIDE THE SLGT RISK AREA...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DISORGANIZED. TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY/MID-EVE. ...FL... TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ALONG THE E AND W COAST SEABREEZES. W COAST BOUNDARY SHOULD COLLIDE WITH THE E COAST BOUNDARY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. GIVEN COOL H5 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND MINUS 8C ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...VIGOROUS/TALL CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR BRIEF PULSE TYPE MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TSTMS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS EVE. ...NRN MN... AT 19Z...A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...EXTENDED FROM NWRN ONT SWWD INTO NRN ND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BUT REMAINS CAPPED. THOUGH STRONGER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN N OF THE BORDER ACROSS NWRN ONT TONIGHT...LATEST NAMKF AND 18Z RUC SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP SWD INTO FAR NRN MN AFTER 00Z ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER WHERE STRONGEST WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 08/06/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 00:19:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 06 Aug 2005 19:19:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508070047.j770ll07029669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070045 SWODY1 SPC AC 070044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SAT AUG 06 2005 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 20 NNE LAX 20 SSE BFL 35 NW TVL 35 WNW 4LW 70 W BKE 20 E S80 35 SSE 3HT 40 ENE SHR 40 NW RAP 60 WSW MBG 15 W GFK 30 WNW RRT ...CONT... 80 NE CMX 45 WNW IWD 10 SSW RWF 45 W EAR 25 NNW HLC 35 WNW HUT 15 NNW CNU 30 E COU 10 NW MIE 20 ESE CAK 30 NW CXY 20 SE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. NUMEROUS STORMS ONGOING AROUND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SERN US WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO A LOSS OF SFC HEATING. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD ACROSS NRN MN INTO SE SD. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A 5 % PROBABILITY LINE IS NO LONGER WARRANTED ACROSS NRN MN THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 05:25:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 00:25:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508070554.j775sI9G003058@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070551 SWODY1 SPC AC 070550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE JAN 30 S GLH 40 SW JBR 40 NW CGI 55 SSE MTO 25 S BMG 30 SSW SDF 35 WSW BNA 15 NE TCL MEI 10 ESE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 50 ESE FAT 45 WSW SVE 25 W MHS 20 NNE MFR 40 NNE BKE 40 SW GTF 80 NNE BIL 10 S GDV 50 NNE ISN ...CONT... 10 WSW ANJ 30 W DBQ 40 S HSI 40 NE DDC 15 W P28 25 W BVO 10 S JEF 15 NNW FWA 20 SSE CLE 20 S ROC 15 NNE UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEY... ...OH AND TN VALLEY... A WEAK UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SERN US TODAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F...SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR. FORECAST CONVECTION FROM THE GFS AND NAMKF HAVE HANDLED THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS OK WITH SEVERE ON THE NW EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. TODAY...THE SOLUTIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS EXCEPT SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN KY SWWD TO CNTRL MS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATEST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AS THE CELLS PEAK FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN US TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING ESEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MN AND SE SD. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE APPEARS UNCERTAIN AND THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING STORM INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT SUGGESTING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. HOWEVER...WILL NOT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INITIATION. IF STORMS INITIATE...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI AND NRN IA BY LATE EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC... ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN US SUNDAY. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT...MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED STORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN AND CNTRL NY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A PULSE SEVERE THREAT CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 15 KT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND BRIEF CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...SRN CA/SW AZ... STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA AND SWRN AZ BY MIDDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THIS AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL AND SRN FL... SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL HELPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS WEAKEN AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 12:34:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 07:34:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508071302.j77D2Xif007862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071300 SWODY1 SPC AC 071259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GWO 40 ENE PBF 25 ESE UNO 20 WNW ALN 10 NE CMI 20 SSE LAF 20 E BMG 35 N HOP MSL 25 W CBM 10 WNW GWO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCW 15 SW SPW 25 E BKX 30 NW STC 25 SE DLH 30 WNW RHI 40 NNW VOK 35 ENE MCW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 30 E OFK 35 ESE BUB 20 SW HSI 20 E MHK 40 S OJC 45 WSW JEF 30 SE UIN 40 N LAF 30 SSW FDY 30 E CLE 30 ESE BUF 30 N UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON ...CONT... CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 30 WSW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 40 NNE BKE 40 SW GTF 50 WNW MLS 10 NNE GDV 60 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN BAND OF WLYS REMAINS N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UPR LOW NOW OVER AL SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NERN U.S. AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER KS/OK CONTINUES SEWD. ...LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS... SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL PULSE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN AND MS VLYS TODAY...ON NW FRINGE OF WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY AL UPR LOW. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OF PREVIOUS DAYS HAS SOMEWHAT LESSENED DEGREE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH. BUT RESIDUAL PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT W/N INTO THE PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. GIVEN VERY WEAK DEEP SHEAR...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WIND DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS...AND...ESPECIALLY IN THE LWR OH VLY...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. ...UPR MS VLY... A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY THIS PERIOD...WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST BENEATH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WNW FLOW ALOFT CROSSING THE NRN PLNS. SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT THAT UPR FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT. COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK FRONT STALLED W/E ACROSS REGION AND PERHAPS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ERN DAKS MAY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF MN AND WRN WI. DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM GIVEN /1/ ABSENCE OF QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY AND /2/ QUESTIONS REGARDING CAP. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND...IF STORMS DO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500 TO 4500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THUS SETUP WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ASSUMING STORMS DO FORM...MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH CLUSTER MOVING SE ACROSS SRN MN INTO WI AND NRN IA BY LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN FL... SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL FL...HELPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE BY MIDDAY IN ZONE OF STRONG INSTABILITY PER EYW RAOB. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 15:32:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 10:32:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508071601.j77G1B7b028755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071556 SWODY1 SPC AC 071554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MCW 15 SW SPW 25 E BKX 30 NW STC 25 SE DLH 30 WNW RHI 40 NNW VOK 35 ENE MCW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW WAL 20 SSE NHK 15 N NHK 20 NE BWI 15 NNW PHL 10 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 45 SW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 45 ESE ALW 10 WSW MSO 25 WNW LWT 40 WNW GDV 60 N ISN ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 30 E OFK 35 ESE BUB 20 SW HSI 25 SW MHK 40 S OJC 45 WSW JEF 35 ESE UIN 10 NNE CGX 10 SW GRR 20 NNE LAN 30 E FNT 10 ENE MTC 25 ENE TOL 20 W CLE 20 ENE CLE 30 ESE BUF 15 NNW UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT NWD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED FROM THE FAR ERN DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AND SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. WEAK IMPULSE NOW OVERSPREADING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING QUICKLY ESEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LEADING SYSTEM MAY ACT ON THE VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A W-E ORIENTED PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL MN. THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...20-30 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR WILL STILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH ANY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES...AND ANY RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC... WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA TOWARDS THE NJ COAST...WITH SUBTLE LOW/MID VORTICITY CENTER EVIDENT ON MORNING VIS IMAGERY OVER SERN PA. THIS MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN MD/DE AT 15Z. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MODEST WLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS DE...ERN MD...SRN NJ THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NRN VA/S-CENTRAL PA AND ALSO SPREAD EWD LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BECOME SCATTERED OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG N-NW PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL DAYS OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED/WEAKENED LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THUS WILL DROP PROBABILITIES A NOTCH OVER THIS REGION...WITH RESULTANT DELETION OF CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. HOWEVER...PULSE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS/MID SOUTH TOWARDS THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL FL... OVERALL SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER FL. MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW SHOULD ADVANCE WEST COAST SEABREEZE WELL INLAND AND POSSIBLY COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES AND VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES NOW NEAR 20C AT TBW THIS MORNING. THUS...ENVIRONMENT MAY BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS THAN WAS THE CASE DURING THE PAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS. ...BLACK HILLS REGION... TERRAIN FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY-SEVERE WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 7 19:06:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 14:06:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508071934.j77JYVis025169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071931 SWODY1 SPC AC 071930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AXN 45 WNW BRD 30 NNE BRD 50 ESE DLH 40 NW RHI 45 ESE EAU 20 SSE MKT 35 ENE BKX 45 WSW AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 35 NE SBA 35 SW BFL 15 N BFL 35 N FAT 45 SW SVE 10 SSE MHS 35 NNW LMT 45 ESE ALW 10 WSW MSO 25 WNW LWT 40 WNW GDV 60 N ISN ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 35 W JVL 35 NNW OTM 60 NE OMA 35 ESE OMA 30 ESE IRK 35 ESE UIN 10 NNE CGX 10 SW GRR 20 NNE LAN 30 E FNT 10 ENE MTC 25 ENE TOL 20 W CLE 20 ENE CLE 30 ESE BUF 15 NNW UCA 10 NW BAF 25 SSW GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY... ...UPPER MS VLY... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER NERN SD WITH A FRONT NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN. S OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HEATING. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS CONFIRM CAPPED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DAKS AND CNTRL/SRN MN /S OF FRONT/. BUT...ENHANCED SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF SURFACE LOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NCNTRL MN EARLY THIS AFTN. GIVEN APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DAKS...LARGE SCALE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR INCREASING BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM CNTRL/NRN MN TOWARD UPPER MI THROUGH EVE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN THIS CORRIDOR. THERE REMAINS A SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR TSTMS TO ROOT INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER YET THIS AFTN/EVE TO MAINTAIN A SLGT CATEGORICAL RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MN AND NWRN WI. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY VALUES IN PLACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN SURFACE-BASED INITIATION. ...LWR OH VLY... WEAK UPPER SHEAR AXIS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTING STRONG TSTMS ALONG/N OF THE OH RVR THIS AFTN. ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE. ...BLACK HILLS VCNTY... WDLY SCT TSTMS HAVE FORMED VCNTY BLACK HILLS THIS AFTN...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EWD THROUGH MT/DAKS. THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN REMAINS WEAK...BUT GIVEN SUCH HOT BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE. ..RACY.. 08/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 00:33:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2005 19:33:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508080102.j78121lI020135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW FRM 35 NNW RWF AXN 35 WNW BRD 30 NE BRD 35 WNW IWD 30 NNW RHI 25 SW RHI 15 NNW LSE 30 WSW RST 30 NNW FRM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ RAL 25 N BFL 30 ENE MER 15 SSW TVL 20 NW LOL 65 WNW WMC 20 SE 4LW 65 WSW BNO 60 SSW PDT 40 SSW LWS 10 SW MSO 20 WNW LWT 30 SE SDY 40 E MOT 60 NNW DVL ...CONT... 20 WNW ANJ 55 ENE GRB 30 NNW DBQ 25 W CID 45 ENE MKC 55 SW SZL 25 E FYV 25 N HOT 15 NNW LIT 55 SW ARG 20 E TBN 45 ENE JEF 30 SW PIA 20 SW BEH 15 SSW LAN 20 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 W SYR 30 WNW ALB 30 ENE PSF 20 ENE BDL 35 E ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW WAL 25 NW RIC 25 S LYH 30 S GSO 10 N FLO CRE ...CONT... 10 ESE PNS 20 WSW MGM 10 ESE GAD 25 ENE CHA 15 SSW TRI 25 SSE 5I3 JKL 40 S LEX 25 SE BWG 50 SSW BNA 30 NNE MEI 20 W BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW TAD 35 ENE TAD 20 SSW LAA 35 NNE LAA 25 SE AIA 25 NW AIA 30 NNW BFF 25 WNW FCL 40 SSW 4FC 50 N ALS 40 WNW TAD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN WI ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL MN. DEVELOPING CUMULUS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LOCATED NW OF MINNEAPOLIS AND THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SCNTRL MN INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM SUGGEST SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN CA/SW AZ... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SWRN AZ. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE WWD INTO SRN CA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION PARTIALLY DUE TO SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 05:05:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 00:05:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508080533.j785XMZ3032038@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080531 SWODY1 SPC AC 080529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 45 NW TVC 15 NE GRB 35 NNW VOK 20 NNE BKX 65 N PHP 30 SW Y22 25 SSE DIK 45 ENE DIK 55 WNW JMS 20 SSE BJI 15 SSE HIB 40 SE ELO 60 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 20 ESE BFL 45 W BIH 20 WNW RNO 60 NNW SVE 45 SW BNO 55 S S80 20 N MSO 55 NW FCA ...CONT... 25 N PBG 15 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE GCK 10 E MHK 30 W SZL 45 SSW IRK 35 SE DSM 20 ESE FOD 15 S SPW 15 SW FSD 55 S PHP 35 SW BFF 25 NW DEN 45 NNE ALS 20 SSE TAD 40 NNE CAO 50 NNE GCK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS... ...UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT SWD INTO THE NCNTRL UNITED STATES TODAY BRINGING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL MN EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN SD INTO NE WY AND SE MT. THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEARS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GFS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED WITH THE NAM AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN OVER-DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THIS MAY INDEED BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. AT ANY RATE...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS NEAR A SFC LOW ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN WY ACROSS NRN SD INTO SCNTRL MN. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 KT OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS MN AND WI...SLIGHTLY WEAKER SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION INITIATES AND ON WHETHER A EWD MOVING TROUGH PHASES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ...FL... SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS FL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAK...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOVE 70 F. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS CELLS PEAK IN INTENSITY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...SRN CA/SW AZ... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE WWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL AGAIN RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD PROMOTE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARGINAL THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 15:54:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 10:54:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508081623.j78GN4AY013566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081614 SWODY1 SPC AC 081612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW IWD 55 NNW EAU 45 NE ATY 40 SSW MBG 35 NNE RAP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNE 4BQ 25 WSW GDV 15 N SDY MOT 25 ESE TVF 20 WSW ELO 25 NW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAL 25 SSE PMD BFL 20 NE MER 55 SSW SVE 40 S 4LW 45 W BKE 75 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW IRK 35 WNW SPI 20 WSW BEH 25 NNE BEH MKG 30 ENE MSN 30 WNW LNR 20 S FRM 15 SSW MHE 45 S PHP 45 WNW BFF 30 ENE DEN 35 SW PUB TAD 35 N CAO 45 WNW EHA 10 ENE GLD 35 WNW CNK 15 SE FNB 35 SSW IRK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES... ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING IMPULSE NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY LIFT NNEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SERN ND WSWWD INTO NWRN SD/SERN MT WHERE ANOTHER LOW CENTER SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF LOW CENTER BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE NOW LIFTING INTO SWRN MT ACCORDING TO WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE HOT WITHIN WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF WRN SD WITH SURFACE TEMPS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100F...WITH NARROW MOIST AXIS PERSISTING NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT INTO SWRN ND/FAR SERN MT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE MT/SD/ND BORDER REGION AND SPREAD EWD. SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO MCS GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED INFLOW NEAR THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. PRIMARY QUESTIONS FOR THIS SCENARIO ARE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WILL SYSTEM BE ABLE TO ACT ON WEAK CINH NEAR PEAKING HEATING?/. REGARDLESS...ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT FROM NRN SD/ND EWD INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITHIN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 8 19:40:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 08 Aug 2005 14:40:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508082008.j78K8MaJ005135@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082006 SWODY1 SPC AC 082004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW IWD 50 NNW EAU 45 NE ATY 40 S MBG 40 NE RAP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNE 4BQ 30 W GDV 15 N SDY 15 NNW MOT 40 WNW GFK 30 NNE BJI 30 WSW ELO 55 SE ELO 40 WNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 20 NNW RAL 40 ESE FAT 40 E SAC 10 S RBL 40 S 4LW 45 W BKE 75 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW OTM 25 SW PIA 15 ESE MMO 30 NNE CGX 40 ENE MKE 30 ENE MSN 35 W LNR 20 S FRM 15 SSW MHE 50 WNW VTN 20 W AIA 30 ENE DEN 35 SW PUB TAD 10 W LAA 10 ENE GLD 35 WNW CNK 10 SSW OMA 25 NNW OTM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO MT... ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO MT... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS MT THIS AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF UPPER VORT MAX NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS ID / WRN MT. WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE ATTM...EXPECT A FEW ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...FUELED BY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE FRONT NOW LYING FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL AND WRN SD. THOUGH SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS...MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE HAIL...WITH EVENTUAL MCS DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS ND / NRN SD INTO MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 08/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 9 19:31:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 14:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508091959.j79JxZ6r002181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091957 SWODY1 SPC AC 091955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E OSC 10 ESE MTW 10 NNE DBQ 25 W DSM 25 SE OLU BUB 35 E ANW 20 SSE MHE 20 NW RWF 65 SSW DLH 35 W CMX 60 NW ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CPR 25 ESE COD 20 ENE HLN 45 NW GTF 60 ESE CTB 40 SSE HVR 50 NE 4BQ 40 SSE REJ 45 SSW RAP 45 ENE DGW 25 N CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CNK 40 NE DDC 25 ENE LBL 65 WSW GAG 55 NNW CDS 30 WSW LTS 15 WNW MLC 15 WNW JLN 30 W SZL 40 ENE MKC 15 NE STJ 20 W CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW DVL 20 WSW DVL 40 ENE BIS 15 N MBG 35 SE MBG 25 W HON 15 SSE BRD 50 WNW IWD ...CONT... 35 SE DTW 35 WSW FDY 25 SSE IND 35 SSW SDF 25 SSW LEX 30 W HTS 20 E UNI 20 NE YNG 25 WSW BUF ...CONT... 65 N BRO 20 S LRD ...CONT... 10 ESE SAN 25 NW EDW 40 SSE FAT 40 S TVL 30 SSW NFL 60 SSW RDM 45 NNW BNO 35 E S80 10 SSE S06 35 SW 63S 65 ESE BLI 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ACTIVE BOW ECHO NOW EXITING NRN UP OF MI WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI/SWRN MN TO SWRN NEB. 40KT BAND OF 500MB FLOW EXTENDS FROM MT EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO WRN GREAT LAKES. THUS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS FLOW...RESULTING IN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND POOLED VERY MOIST AIR MASS... INSTABILITIES ARE IN PLACE FROM ERN NEB TO WI FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. CAP HAS ERODED SUFFICIENTLY IN NERN NEB NEWD INTO WRN WI FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD VICINITY BOUNDARY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG IN AREA OF POOLED 70F DEWPOINTS S OF BOUNDARY IN SRN MN/IA...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS IS GREATEST. UPWARDS OF 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF INITIALLY MULTICELLED STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING AS COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK THIS AREA...HOWEVER PARAMETERS SUGGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELLULAR AND RATHER ISOLATED. WEAK UPSLOPE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. WITH DEWPOINT IN THE 50S AND CONTINUED STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT/NRN WY EWD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-40 KT AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WIND THREAT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... A VERY MOIST MONSOON AIR MASS COVERS SWRN U.S. A COLD POOL HAS DEVELOP OVER SRN NV AND IS PROPAGATING SWD INTO SERN CA AND WRN AZ. WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. ..HALES.. 08/09/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 00:27:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 19:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508100055.j7A0tIYl024662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100053 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE OSC 30 SE MLI 20 SSE MHK 25 WSW DDC 45 SE LAA 15 ESE LAA 45 NNE LAA 20 W GLD 35 W MCK 25 SSE SUX 25 NE VOK 35 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BPT 15 W PRX 20 SW OKC 35 W CSM 10 SSE PVW 55 NW BGS 30 S BGS 25 E SJT 40 E JCT 15 SSE HDO 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 15 S LGB 25 WNW BIH 25 NNW BAM 80 SSE S80 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 40 NE HVR 70 SSW GGW 60 SW DIK 35 ESE MBG 45 SSW AXN 55 SW IWD 70 NW ANJ ...CONT... 55 NNE CLE 20 W MTO TBN 40 S HRO HOT 40 SW PBF 30 NNW GLH 25 N UOX 25 E BNA BKW 40 SW DCA 20 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING EXTENDING FROM NRN MI WSWWD ACROSS WI INTO IA. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR A COLD FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE STORMS ARE NEAR 70 F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LINE STRONG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SFC WINDS ARE VEERED AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCED THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS NRN MI...SE WI AND ERN IA. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ...CNTRL PLAINS... NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NE NEB EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S F AHEAD OF THE LINE. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PROFILERS SHOWING ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LINEAR IN STRUCTURE. SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM. HOWEVER...AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...SRN MT/NRN WY... ISOLATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM WCNTRL MT SEWD INTO ECNTRL WY. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S F WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IS HELPING CREATE MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. DUE TO HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE HIGH BASES. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SHOWN ON VAD WIND PROFILERS SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY WITH PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HOWEVER...DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ..BROYLES.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 05:31:47 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 00:31:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508100559.j7A5xuCk019565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100558 SWODY1 SPC AC 100556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF 15 W AIA 30 E DGW 30 WSW GCC 30 SW 4BQ 40 ENE 4BQ 65 N PHP 15 W HON 25 ESE FSD 35 NNE SUX 10 SW SUX 40 WSW OFK 40 NNE LBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LTS 30 S OKC MKO 15 WSW SGF 15 SSE SZL 25 NE MKC 15 NNW SLN 30 E LBL 30 E DHT 40 ESE PVW 25 S LTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW CMX 60 S DLH 35 WSW EAU 25 SW MKE 30 NE MKG 80 NE APN ...CONT... 35 S CRP 35 S LRD ...CONT... SAN 20 WNW PMD 20 NW FAT 45 NE SAC 30 SE SVE 45 NW WMC OWY 40 ESE BOI 20 SSW S80 35 WSW PUW 30 N EAT 55 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS ERN MT AND ERN WY....WITH STORMS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S F IN THE HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MTNS. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...SPREADING ESEWD INTO GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES SUGGESTING THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IF THE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE EXPANDING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WCNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL SD. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN MCS AND MOVING A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB. IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL AND CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING. ...NEW ENGLAND... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING THE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. IF SCATTERED STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN QUEBEC AND DRIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE FRONT...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A SEVERE THREAT OVER ME..VT...NH AND NRN NY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BELOW 30 KT WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. DUE TO THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...OH VALLEY... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY INTO THE NERN US. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER LARGE-ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NRN OH WWD INTO CNTRL IL COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE DRIVING A CONVECTIVE LINE SWD ACROSS IL...IND AND OH. IF THIS OCCURS...A RAPID WEAKENING WOULD BE LIKELY AS THE LINE MOVES INTO KY AND WV DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKER SHEAR FARTHER SOUTH. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 10 19:50:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 14:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508102018.j7AKI9M4025774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102011 SWODY1 SPC AC 102009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GRI 20 NE IML 40 SE CYS 45 SSE CPR 20 SSE LND 20 NNE JAC 15 SE GTF 50 N LWT 70 S GGW 55 SSE Y22 HON 15 E FSD 25 E SUX 40 NW OMA 20 W GRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W TRM 10 NNW DAG 35 E FAT 20 W BIH 50 SSW ELY 45 SW DPG 40 ENE OWY 75 N BOI 15 S S80 30 S S06 40 SW 63S 50 NNW EAT 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CDS 40 S OKC 35 W MKO 30 W JLN 40 NE CNU 20 SSE SLN 40 WSW RSL 25 WNW GCK 10 SE EHA 30 SSE DHT 40 NE CVS 40 SW LBB 55 SSE CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 35 NE FAR 25 W AXN 25 W MKT 25 NNE ALO 15 S RFD 30 W BEH 35 NW LAN 20 N OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO SD / NEB... ...NRN ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SD / NEB... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN ID / SWRN MT / WY INVOF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND MUCH OF NEB INVOF WEAK / NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH MODERATE / 30 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE WITH TIME...AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING LIKELY RESULTING IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...JET SHOULD VEER WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING / POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS ACROSS NEB -- WHICH COULD REACH THE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / OH VALLEY. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PULSE / SOME MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / BRIEFLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OFFSET INCREASE IN WIND FIELD THUS MAINTAINING ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/10/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 00:34:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 10 Aug 2005 19:34:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508110102.j7B12Z0N009113@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110059 SWODY1 SPC AC 110057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CNK 35 NNW HLC 35 NNW GLD 15 ENE AKO 10 NNW SNY 50 WNW BFF 15 SE CPR 35 E RIW 25 N RIW 50 S SHR 40 ENE SHR 35 SSE MLS 60 SSE GDV 15 E SDY 35 W P24 25 N Y22 40 E Y22 45 NNW PHP 40 SSW RAP 30 E CDR 15 SSW ANW 30 S YKN 60 SW FOD 35 NE FNB 35 NW CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BHB LCI 15 NE AVP HGR SHD TRI 30 WNW BWG 30 NE JBR 30 SE UMN 40 NNE CNU 20 SSE SLN 35 WSW RSL 25 W GCK 45 NE CVS 40 WSW LBB 55 S CDS 40 W MKO 15 ENE LIT 50 NNW MSL 25 ENE RMG 50 S PSK 50 ENE DAN 10 ENE RIC 10 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW RRT BJI 15 SSE AXN 10 SE FRM CID 15 S RFD 30 W BEH AZO 25 NNW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 W TRM 10 NNW DAG 10 SE NID BIH U31 60 N ELY BYI 45 WSW 27U 45 SSW MSO 30 S S06 40 SW 63S 50 NNW EAT 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.... NOTABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS MOST AREAS. WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND COMMENCEMENT OF DIURNAL COOLING WEST OF THE ROCKIES ...THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. ...CENTRAL STATES... PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IN MORE PROMINENT BELT OF WESTERLIES EAST OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER BLOCK. IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS IMPULSE WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS NORTHERN SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURES WILL PROVIDE MOST PROMINENT FORCING FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME BASED ABOVE RADIATIONAL INVERSION EAST OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ABOVE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH MODERATELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL PROVIDE CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS...THOUGH...SEEMS TO BE NEAR/JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WHERE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. **FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 05:30:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 00:30:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508110559.j7B5x2gU002082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110556 SWODY1 SPC AC 110555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNK GRI FOD VOK 35 SSW OSC MTC TOL 35 W FWA LAF CMI 30 NW SPI 20 S BRL P35 25 NW CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 N RAL 50 S BIH 25 WNW TPH 20 SSE ELY 45 NW PUC 20 WNW JAC 30 E 27U 55 S S06 20 NNW PUW 30 NNE EPH 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE ERI 20 S YNG 15 ESE MGW 25 NE HGR 15 ESE GFL 15 ESE BML 20 NNE 3B1 30 NW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.... MODELS INDICATE BLOCK WILL PERSIST IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ALASKA/BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. NORTHERN BRANCH OF FLOW SPLITTING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...INCLUDING ONE WHICH HAS PROGRESSED AROUND CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS IMPULSE IS ALREADY AMPLIFYING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DOWNSTREAM...IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR VORTEX...IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN ITS WAKE...FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME RATHER NUMEROUS DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT NEAR SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND IN MONSOONAL MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION...BUT LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE IN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME STALLED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY BY/ SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED. BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ONE OR MORE SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SEEM LIKELY TO EVOLVE WITH ASSOCIATED BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK...BUT ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO BEFORE WEAKENING. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING...BUT FORCING FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. THOUGH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL...MODELS SUGGEST ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONCERNS REGARDING STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SEEM LIKELY TO MINIMIZE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... LACK OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW FIELDS WILL ALSO GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED IN PEAK HEATING...AND LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF DOWNBURST OR TWO. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 12:32:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 07:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508111300.j7BD0SES023831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111257 SWODY1 SPC AC 111255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MHK GRI FOD 35 NNE MSN 15 NNE TVC 20 NE OSC 30 NE MTC TOL 35 NNW FWA 25 WNW MIE 35 E LUK 20 WSW LEX 30 NE MVN 45 S UIN 30 SSW P35 20 N MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 SSW PMD 35 ENE FAT 50 W TPH 45 WNW ELY DPG 25 SSE MLD 40 SSW WEY 55 S S06 20 NNW PUW 30 NNE EPH 70 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW BUF 20 SE BFD 15 SW PSB 30 E IPT 15 ESE GFL BML 20 NNE 3B1 30 NW CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N JLN 45 ENE ICT 40 WNW PNC 45 NNW CDS 50 SSW CDS 45 NW MWL 15 ESE FTW 25 WNW TYR 20 N HRO 45 N JLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS AND LWR MI... ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... STRONG SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS ALBERTA EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND SUPPRESS THE WLYS FARTHER S INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. AT THE SAME TIME... DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND AND DRIVE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN NEW ENG AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN MORE SRN BRANCH OF FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION E/NE TO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY. IN ADDITION...ANIMATED RADAR DATA DEPICT A POSSIBLE MCV MOVING E ACROSS N CNTRL KS. ...LWR MO/MID MS VLYS INTO IL/IND/SW OH THIS AFTERNOON... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM NE KS/NRN MO/SRN IA E/SE INTO CNTRL IL/IND TODAY...WHERE 25-30 KT WSW FLOW WILL EXIST AT MID LEVELS. WEAK FRONT STALLED W/E ACROSS REGION LIKELY WILL SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED/MODULATED BY MCV NOW OVER NRN KS. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS...WITH HIGH PWS POSSIBLY ENHANCING THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. ...MID MS VLY INTO LWR MI TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO LWR MI TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM JET RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN GRT LKS. BELT OF 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE ELEVATED CLUSTERS. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION STILL UNDERGOING WEAK COOL ADVECTION ATTM...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BUT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND NW MN... SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE WRN DAKOTAS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND POSSIBLY OVER NW MN TONIGHT. POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED BY MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND POSSIBLY BY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN MT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS...BUT LINGERING CLOUDS FROM PRESENT CONVECTION LIKELY WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND. ...ERN WY/WRN NEB... SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER ERN WY AND PERHAPS WRN NEB...INVOF SAME FRONT AFFECTING THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY APPARENT SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN UT. ALTHOUGH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS...CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE STORM COVERAGE AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT. ..SRN NEW ENG/NRN MID ATL REGION... WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS REGION...AND LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TO LONG ISLAND MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS TODAY. BOTH UPR LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. BUT MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH WET DOWNBURSTS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR/COHEN.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 16:01:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 11:01:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508111629.j7BGTAvN000929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111621 SWODY1 SPC AC 111620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DEC 10 SSE P35 20 N MHK 30 SSE HSI 30 E SUX 25 SSW VOK 30 SSE OSH 35 SSE MKE 10 N DNV 20 SW DEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ERI 35 ENE BFD 45 SE UCA 10 SE BML 15 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 55 S LFK AUS 35 NNE HDO 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 35 ENE U31 60 SE EKO 35 NW EVW 20 SSW IDA BTM 30 SSE S06 30 ENE GEG 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 W HVR 65 WSW GGW 25 WSW GDV 40 NW DIK 40 NW P24 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU 30 ESE ICT 50 W CSM 30 ESE CVS 50 S LBB 10 SW LTS 40 SSE OKC 55 ENE TUL 30 W JEF SZL 35 NE CNU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS... SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COMPLEX OVER THIS REGION TODAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LIKELY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD INTO WRN IA/SERN NEB/KS. PLACEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN LATER TODAY...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBAT PRESSURE FALLS AND ANY ASSOCIATED NWD PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIFT TOWARDS SRN WI BY THIS EVENING. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F /... MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK. REGARDLESS...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT VERY UNSTABLE SBCAPE FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN IA/CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE STEEP. A PAIR OF WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA WERE LIFTING ENEWD THIS MORNING...ONE OVER ERN IA AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL NEB. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SERN NEB AND MUCH OF IA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST ACROSS STRONGER INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE MID EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WI/IL. OTHER STORMS WILL INCREASE SWWD AS STRONG HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ALONG FRONT INTO KS...AND INVOF WEAK CAP AND STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AWAY FROM MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HAVE ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... AFTER DARK...STRONG SWLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS LATER THIS EVENING. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE...RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. EXPECT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN WY... NARROW AXIS OF 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME NEAR AND JUST BEHIND STALLING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUSTAIN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE...AS STORMS INCREASE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY THEY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAIN A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND AS THEY MOVE SEWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ASCENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN/NRN MN TODAY. DESPITE THE INCREASED SHEAR AND DEEP ASCENT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL/STABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN WAKE OF EARLIER SURFACE COLD FRONT. EXPECT AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER...AND WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED...MUCH AS WHAT OCCURRED INTO NERN MT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING WIND SHIFT/COOL FRONT. THEREFORE...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS WITH EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT REMAINING LIMITED. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 11 19:42:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 14:42:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508112010.j7BKAGNb023209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112007 SWODY1 SPC AC 112005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LUK 35 WSW P35 15 NE MHK 30 SSE HSI 30 E SUX 50 SSE RST 20 NNE JVL 30 SW TOL 35 E DAY 30 SSW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MSS 30 SSE SLK 35 ESE UCA 15 S ELM 30 NW POU MWN 30 S HUL ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 55 S LFK AUS 35 NNE HDO 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 35 ENE U31 60 SE EKO 35 NW EVW 20 SSW IDA BTM 30 SSE S06 30 ENE GEG 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 50 W HVR 65 WSW GGW 25 WSW GDV 40 NW DIK 40 NW P24 60 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU 30 ESE ICT 50 W CSM 30 ESE CVS 50 S LBB 10 SW LTS 40 SSE OKC 55 ENE TUL 30 W JEF SZL 35 NE CNU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN OH WW INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...MIDDLE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM E CENTRAL INDIANA WWD INTO ERN NEB -- ALONG COMBINATION WARM FRONT / CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW S OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AREA OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONGEST STORMS ATTM EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND ERN INDIANA...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SUGGEST MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER SUNSET. STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB / WRN IA AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT / INVOF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. EXPECT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL TO EVOLVE...AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD NRN IL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN WY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLACK HILLS -- AND FURTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY / THE CO FRONT RANGE -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FROM ROUGHLY NERN CO / NWRN KS NWD TO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG / SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM SERN ME SWD INTO ERN MA...WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW 30 TO 40 KT...ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY EVOLVE..CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION WEAKENS. ..GOSS.. 08/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 00:11:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 19:11:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508120039.j7C0dR25003644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120036 SWODY1 SPC AC 120035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LUK BMG CMI BRL 20 NNW LWD 40 WNW DSM 10 NW ALO MSN 15 NW MKE 20 NE CGX SBN FWA DAY 30 NW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 40 NE U31 ELY BYI 40 NNW PIH DLN 35 W MSO 63S EAT 70 NE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NW CTB MLS 60 NW REJ Y22 BIS DVL 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 SSW ART 10 S UCA MSV 25 S ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL PSK LEX MVN BLV STL 45 NE COU MKC 10 NNE EMP 40 E TCC CNM FST 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 30 E CLL GGG ELD 35 N LIT ARG DYR MKL HSV RMG AND SOP 10 S HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONVECTION MOST OTHER AREAS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... WHILE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME SHEARED AND ALREADY ACCELERATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS IOWA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT EAST OF LOW... FROM PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WARM SECTOR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME. THIS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LOSS OF WARM SECTOR HEATING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THRU MID MO VALLEY... WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN WARM/MOIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STEADILY STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 00:23:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 19:23:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508120051.j7C0pHh1007453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120049 SWODY1 SPC AC 120046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LUK BMG CMI BRL 20 NNW LWD 40 WNW DSM 10 NW ALO MSN 15 NW MKE 20 NE CGX SBN FWA DAY 30 NW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 40 NE U31 ELY BYI 40 NNW PIH DLN 35 W MSO 63S EAT 70 NE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NW CTB MLS 60 NW REJ Y22 BIS DVL 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 SSW ART 10 S UCA MSV 25 S ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL PSK LEX MVN BLV STL 45 NE COU MKC 10 NNE EMP 40 E TCC CNM FST 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 30 E CLL GGG ELD 35 N LIT ARG DYR MKL HSV RMG AND SOP 10 S HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... CORRECTED GROUPING OF GEN TSTMS LINES. SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONVECTION MOST OTHER AREAS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... WHILE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME SHEARED AND ALREADY ACCELERATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS IOWA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT EAST OF LOW... FROM PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WARM SECTOR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME. THIS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LOSS OF WARM SECTOR HEATING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THRU MID MO VALLEY... WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN WARM/MOIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STEADILY STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 05:36:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 00:36:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508120604.j7C644G2011030@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120601 SWODY1 SPC AC 120559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GCC RAP PIR 10 SE 9V9 45 ENE BUB LBF SNY DGW GCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG RUT MSV 10 SSE IPT PIT IND DEC CGX MBS 50 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 MLU GGG AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S CZZ DRA 45 N P38 U24 U28 40 NNE 4BL MTJ EGE CAG 10 ENE RKS EVW 30 NNE BKE 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB GTF MLS DIK FAR AXN MKT DBQ HTL 35 E OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... BLOCK PERSISTS IN UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ ALASKA/WESTERN CANADA...AND CHANGES TO PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SLOW/MOSTLY MINOR. WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF/ ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY... ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...INTO SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WHICH EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH BROAD CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL FRONTAL SURGES INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. LEADING FRONTAL SURGE WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE SOUTH OF MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES...THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH ONTARIO BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF BLOCKING RIDGE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...NORTHEAST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG FRONT...WHICH BY PEAK HEATING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND OZARKS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. 30+ KT MEAN FLOW COULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA INTO OHIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES...ACROSS PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK FLOW/SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. MUCH OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME...ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SURGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING UPSTREAM UPPER PATTERN...WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT EAST OF LOW...BENEATH 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA TONIGHT...BUT STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO SURFACE COOLING/FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHWEST STATES... MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SEEMS TO EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED BY CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 12:10:44 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 07:10:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508121238.j7CCckE0027129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121236 SWODY1 SPC AC 121234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GCC 40 E 81V 25 SW PHP 25 N ANW 30 WNW BBW 35 WSW LBF 40 WSW SNY 10 ENE CPR 25 WNW GCC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS GFL 30 SSW ALB IPT 20 NNW PIT 35 N IND 25 N DNV CGX MBS 50 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE HVR 45 N MLS DIK FAR AXN MKT DBQ HTL 35 E OSC ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 50 W MLU GGG AUS 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 S CZZ DRA 45 ESE U31 55 S EKO DPG 40 SE SLC 10 NE MLD BKE 40 WSW PDT YKM 65 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR ERN WY/WRN NEB/SW SD.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR SE LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA TO WRN NY.... ...WRN AND NRN NY/PA TO NRN INDIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL MOVE EWD FROM MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO TO WRN QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM WI TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...TO NRN INDIANA/NRN OH AND WRN NY BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI EARLY TODAY...AND NWD ACROSS NRN PA/NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. DESPITE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 60-LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500 J/KG. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...WRN NEB/SW SD/ERN WY THROUGH LATE EVENING... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ESEWD TO WY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SMALLER SCALE WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL WY MOVES EWD THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE APPROACHING WA/ORE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS MT INTO NE WY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EXPECT THE SECONDARY FRONT TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN WY INTO WRN/NRN NEB AND SRN SD. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 55-60 F ARE PRESENT N OF AN INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NE NM INTO CENTRAL KS. CLOUDS AND A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO CONFINE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO THE NEB PANHANDLE/ERN WY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR THE NE EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SAME AREA WILL ALSO RESIDE BENEATH 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 16:07:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 11:07:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508121635.j7CGZMXt022034@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121629 SWODY1 SPC AC 121628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS GFL 30 SSW ALB IPT 20 NNW PIT 35 N IND 25 N DNV 25 W SBN 25 WSW JXN 10 SSW MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GCC 40 E 81V 25 SW PHP 25 N ANW 30 WNW BBW 35 WSW LBF 40 WSW SNY 10 ENE CPR 25 WNW GCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 WSW DRA 35 SSE U31 55 S EKO DPG 40 SE SLC 10 NE MLD BKE 40 WSW PDT YKM 65 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE HVR 45 N MLS DIK 15 E JMS 50 W AXN OTG 30 ENE FOD DBQ 30 ESE JVL OSC ...CONT... 20 ESE BPT 45 E SHV 40 NNE GGG 15 NE ACT 45 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...AND NORTHEAST STATES TODAY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THESE STRONGER WIND FIELDS...FROM NORTHERN IL INTO MI AND NY. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY IN SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN IND INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...NORTHERN OH...AND PARTS OF NY/PA. HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ORE. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WY BY EVENING. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH MODERATELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER EASTERN WY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB/WY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INFLOW FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...FL... MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL SHOW A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MULTICELL CONVECTION LATER TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL COLD TROUGH...INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SUGGESTS ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED TODAY. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 12 19:46:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 14:46:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508122014.j7CKEGnq030481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122010 SWODY1 SPC AC 122009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE COD 20 ESE SHR 10 NE RAP 55 WNW VTN 20 WSW MHN 35 NW IML 35 E FCL 20 SSE LAR 55 SW DGW 25 NW RIW 50 ENE COD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ROC 10 SW ALB 20 WSW BDL 25 ENE ISP ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW PSB 15 ENE IND 30 S MTO 20 NW ALN 15 ENE UIN 10 SE MMO 25 WSW JXN 10 SSW MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 60 SW LAS 10 N TPH 20 WNW ELY 30 W U24 15 ESE SLC 30 WSW JAC 40 WNW SUN 40 NNE BKE 10 NNE EPH 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 70 NW FCA 30 NNE HLN 65 WSW MLS 45 SW DIK 35 NW HON 25 NE YKN 45 NNE OMA 35 WNW OTM 40 ENE MLI GRR OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WY AND VICINITY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO CENTRAL IL... ...WY / HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY S OF SECONDARY COLD SURGE / WITHIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WY AND PARTS OF SWRN MT. WITH 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WY...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING TROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD #1969. ...SWRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY STATES... MODERATE / MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELD EXISTS INVOF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI WSWWD INTO NRN MO / KS...AND EWD INTO PA / NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE EWD INVOF COLD FRONT FROM KS INTO INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS NOW OVER PA / NY SW OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH THESE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 04:31:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 23:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508130548.j7D5mqJn011022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130546 SWODY1 SPC AC 130544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N JHW 35 SE UCA 15 NE PSM ...CONT... 25 ENE CRP 20 NNW VCT 40 WNW POE 20 ENE MLU 30 WNW DYR 25 SE UNO 40 S HRO 35 SSW PGO 35 SSE SEP 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 SE YUM 10 SE DRA 55 SSW ELY SLC 45 N EVW 35 NNE BPI 30 SE WRL 35 SSW PHP 45 SSW 9V9 35 W OFK 10 NE OMA 40 WSW CID 15 SSW MTC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BLOCKING PATTERN IS SLOW TO BREAK DOWN...AND POLAR LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALREADY DIGGING IN THE LEE OF ALASKA UPPER HIGH CENTER...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED AND ACCELERATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY...AS MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE...FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...ROTATES ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER/MID-LEVELS. AND...WITH SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME A BIT MORE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BELT...SEVERE EVENTS SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE...WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY MINOR IN MAGNITUDE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO SLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE DAY TODAY... WITH THERMAL LOW TO THE SOUTH BECOMING LIKELY FOCUS FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WITH CAPE POSSIBLY LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE SHIFTING NORTH OF REGION...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING WHETHER HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BUT...AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFT ROTATION SEEMS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS TOWARD SUNSET. ...EASTERN GULF STATES... WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AS MOIST BOUNDARY DESTABILIZES WITH HEATING. MODELS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE... BUT...IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SEEM TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... POCKETS OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SLOW MOVING OR QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. BUT WITH FLOW FIELDS WEAKENING...AND FORCING FOR STORM CLUSTERS UNCERTAIN...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TODAY. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 13 23:21:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 18:21:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508140039.j7E0dEX0025966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140036 SWODY1 SPC AC 140035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MTO 30 NW IND 40 N DAY 30 WSW ERI 25 S JHW 35 ENE PIT 15 ENE ZZV 30 SSE DAY 45 E BMG MVN 25 NE SLO 15 S MTO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 20 ENE BIH 65 S BIH 40 NE FAT 50 S TVL 20 WSW TVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY 20 NW BWI 40 NNE SHD ROA 20 NW SOP FLO CRE ...CONT... 25 ESE GPT LUL CBM 30 N HSV BNA 10 SE OWB 30 ESE MDH UNO FSM ADM FTW TPL 30 SE SAT 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL LAS 40 NE DRA TPH 45 SE U31 10 ENE DPG 15 ESE EVW 25 NNW JAC 55 ESE WEY CPR 10 NW IML 45 W HLC EHA 55 S LBL P28 MHK 30 NNW UIN BEH 35 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW ART 10 NE RUT 40 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH VALLEY.... ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS NOW ACCELERATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH ASSOCIATED JET CORE SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS JUST NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND NOT LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF WEAKENING BELT OF CYCLONIC WESTERLIES...EMBEDDED WITHIN MID/UPPER MOIST PLUME ADVECTING AROUND WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SEEMS TO HAVE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO...AT BEST...MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW. ...OHIO VALLEY... AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH/WEST OF LAKE ERIE. THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...MIGRATING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CONTINUES EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST BELT OF 30-40 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ACCOMPANYING LATTER FEATURE...WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 02-03Z. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S... CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 14 04:35:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2005 23:35:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508140552.j7E5qYCg002006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140550 SWODY1 SPC AC 140548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TBN SLO LUK JKL LOZ BNA DYR JBR 30 WSW UNO TBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE WAL 35 NE NHK AOO PSB 10 SSE GFL 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 10 N SYR 40 E BML 10 E BHB ...CONT... 15 S IPL 40 ENE DAG 15 NNW FAT 35 NE SCK 60 W RNO 35 WNW U31 15 SSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 10 SSW RAP 25 NE AIA 45 NNW LAA 35 SSE LAA 30 SSW GCK 20 SSW HUT 25 ENE MKC 25 NNW LAF 35 E TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OHIO VALLEY.... MODELS SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...SOUTH OF ALASKAN BLOCKING HIGH CENTER...WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SWEEPS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WELL BEFORE REACHING THE U.S. BORDER. AS A RESULT...BROADENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS DO SUGGEST BROAD WEAK TROUGH...NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SUPPRESS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES...OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ...NORTHEAST... MODELS INDICATE WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY MID DAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY PEAK HEATING. ENHANCED FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THIS FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK/NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN HOT/MOIST ENVIRONMENT...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DOWNBURSTS...AND FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WEAKENING WESTERLIES MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE WEST...ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND IN PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST RISE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST IMPULSE AND BELT OF WEAK TO MODERATE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ROTATE AROUND PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...WHEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT 850-700 MB SPEED MAXIMUM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT PEAK WINDS ALONG GUST FRONTS LIKELY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ...SOUTHWEST... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171147.j7HBlujt015183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141247 SWODY1 SPC AC 141245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TBN 15 ENE MVN 10 SSE LUK 10 NW JKL 40 WSW LOZ BNA 10 S DYR 10 ESE JBR 10 SSE UNO 35 SE TBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35 SW DCA 20 S AOO 40 ESE BFD GFL 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 40 ENE DAG 15 NNW FAT 35 NE SCK 60 W RNO 35 WNW U31 15 SSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 10 SSW RAP 25 NE AIA 45 NNW LAA 35 SSE LAA 30 SSW GCK 20 SSW HUT 25 ENE MKC 25 NNW LAF 35 E TOL ...CONT... 30 SW BUF 35 E ART 25 ENE BML 10 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.... ...NRN MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING... A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NRN OH THIS MORNING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /AOA 30 KT/ MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S S OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG/. THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS INTO THE EVENING. ...LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON... A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD TO SRN MO AND CENTAL IL/INDIANA/OH...WHILE REMNANT PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED FARTHER SE ACROSS ERN OK AND FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL ENEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY NEAR AND SE OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD AGAIN EXCEED 2000 J/KG. A PERSISTENT BELT OF 25-30 KT WSWLY FLOW NEAR 700 MB...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171147.j7HBlvj8015217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141556 SWODY1 SPC AC 141554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 40 SW DCA 10 S EKN CRW LOZ BNA 10 E JBR 60 N LIT HRO TBN MVN LUK PIT BGM GFL 10 E PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 NW TVL 35 WNW U31 20 WSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 25 ESE RAP 60 ENE CDR 45 NNW LAA 25 W CAO 35 NNW AMA 35 SE P28 15 NW SZL 15 NW LAF 35 E TOL ...CONT... 30 SW BUF 35 E ART 25 ENE BML 10 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NY/PA/MID ATLANTIC REGION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES...WITH BAND OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM WI/IL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /ENHANCED BY WELL-DEFINED CLOUD EDGE/ EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM SOUTHERN NH INTO SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELIMINATE CAP...LEADING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ...OH AND MID MS VALLEYS... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OH...SOUTHERN IND...CENTRAL MO. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALSO LIE SOUTH OF MAIN FRONT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG/. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR INTO OH/WV. THESE STORMS WILL BE MULTICELL IN NATURE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... WIDESPREAD MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK FEATURES DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AID IN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBlxv1015229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150043 SWODY1 SPC AC 150042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUF BMG LUK 20 E LEX 40 SSW LEX 15 NE HOP 25 NW HOP 25 SSW EVV 30 NW EVV 40 SSW HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ACY ILG 25 SSE CXY 30 NNE CXY 15 S PSF 25 NW ORH BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ECG 25 WSW ECG RDU CLT 35 E AHN 45 ESE MCN 15 NE SSI ...CONT... 35 S MOB 0A8 20 SSW HSV GLH 50 E SHV 30 SW TYR TPL 35 NNE SAT 50 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 WNW TVL 10 SE RNO 15 SW EKO 30 SE ENV 40 ESE SLC 10 S VEL GJT 4FC 35 ENE RWL 20 S SHR 81V RAP AIA 10 NNE AKO LIC RTN ABQ CVS P28 10 S OJC 20 NNW CMH DUJ 45 WNW IPT 20 NNE GFL 40 ESE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...NORTHEAST... CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. IS BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND WEAKENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW TURNS EASTWARD...WELL NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. DOWNSTREAM...STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF BROAD TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. DESPITE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL PROVIDE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK/LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WIND THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED BY COOLER MARINE AIR ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... WEAK IMPULSE AND BELT OF WEAK TO MODERATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAVE AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALREADY BEEN COOLED/STABILIZED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY SEEMS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY 02-03Z. FARTHER WEST...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE ONGOING...BUT LINGERING SHEAR AXIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS. ...COLORADO VALLEY... DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHWEST UTAH AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT...BEFORE THEY DO...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ..KERR.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBlxat015228@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151245 SWODY1 SPC AC 151244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC 30 E RBL 35 NNW SVE 60 NW LOL 10 SW BAM 20 E SLC 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 NE RWL 35 NNE CPR 20 W GCC 15 E REJ 20 W RRT ...CONT... 10 E MQT 30 NNE EAU 20 ESE ANW 30 S SNY 15 SE LIC 35 NNW CAO 35 NE AMA 25 SE GAG 15 NE ICT 15 W MKC 35 E IRK 25 NNW BMI 25 WNW FWA 30 ENE MGW 30 ESE CXY 30 S POU 20 ENE HYA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE CA/SRN NV/EXTREME WRN AZ... A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NWD TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A PLUME OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT N/NE OF THE LOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE CA...THOUGH THE TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING N THROUGH W OF LAS...THOUGH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FROM THE S SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TODAY ACROSS EXTREME SRN NV/WRN AZ AND SE CA. ON THE NOSE OF THIS DRY SLOT...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...OZARKS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY... A GRADUALLY WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO SAG SWD ACROSS NRN VA/WV/KY...AND THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING VERY LITTLE FARTHER TO SW ACROSS MO/OK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY INVOF THE FRONT WHERE WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW APPEAR TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...WITH THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A MULTICELL CLUSTER WITH A FEW DOWNBURSTS CONFINED TO EXTREME NRN AR/SRN MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT MCV MOVING OUT OF NE OK. ...NRN PLAINS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE ESEWD OVER ONTARIO WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS ND/NRN MN BY LATER TONIGHT. S OF THIS FRONT...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ARE RETURNING NWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SD...THOUGH THE RICHER MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO THE S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SPREAD ENEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION/EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN WY ENEWD ACROSS SD...INVOF A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVE /NOW OVER NW WY/ COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS COULD THE BLACK HILLS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND COULD OCCUR...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm3eX015277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151941 SWODY1 SPC AC 151939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BNA 40 WSW BNA 20 SW MKL 35 S JBR 35 SW ARG 50 W ARG 25 E UNO 40 N POF MDH 35 W EVV 15 E EVV 20 NE OWB 40 N BWG 10 NNW BNA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC 30 NNE RBL 60 N SVE 45 NW WMC 60 NNW ENV 15 E OGD 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 SSW CPR 25 S SHR 35 NE SHR 40 NNE REJ 15 WSW BIS 40 NNW BIS 30 W MOT 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 10 E MQT 25 NNW EAU 20 ESE ANW 15 SE SNY 20 NNW LIC 15 NNW CAO 10 W TCC 15 SW CVS 55 E AMA 50 W END 20 ENE ICT 20 ESE OJC 20 WNW DEC 30 NE MIE LBE 30 ESE CXY 20 N EWR 20 WSW BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO....SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN... ...LWR OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS... GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES IN VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL EWD ALONG THE OH VLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX WERE MOVING EAST FROM SRN MO ATTM. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WERE INCREASING WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TN AND THE TN VLY. EXPECT SCATTERED PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO POSSIBLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS/INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR INCREASE WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE. REFER TO MCD 1987 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA. ...MID ATLANTIC... SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION AS FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER...FORCING AND SHEAR APPEAR LIMITED SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR/OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS ALONG SEA BREEZES AND LEE/THERMAL TROUGH. A FEW DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL STORM INTENSITY SUBSIDES AFTER SUNSET. ...DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST TO ARKLATEX TO OZARKS... A BROAD AND EXTENSIVE SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR STRETCHES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST WWD AND INLAND ACROSS ERN TX/OK AND AR. NUMEROUS MARGINALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS WERE OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL AT PRESENT APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE LWR SABINE RIVER...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL...AS WELL AS ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE ARKLATEX. ...SRN GREAT BASIN... DIFFLUENT FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FROM THE SRN SIERRA ACROSS SRN NV AND NRN AZ. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...SD... WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN SD APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN SD ATTM. HOWEVER...LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE SPREADS EWD AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS CURRENTLY DEPICTING TCU INCREASING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS GIVEN STORM INITIATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM DEVELOPMENT/TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE TOO GREAT TO SUPPORT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm3Wp015274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141953 SWODY1 SPC AC 141952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 40 SW DCA 15 S EKN CRW 35 WSW LOZ BNA 60 N LIT HRO 10 WSW VIH 30 NE SLO LUK PIT 30 ESE BFD 15 NW ALB 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF 20 NNE GFL 40 ESE AUG ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 NE RAL 20 NE FAT 40 ENE SCK 60 NW TVL 35 WNW U31 20 WSW DPG 55 N PUC 35 NNE VEL 45 W RWL 20 SSE RIW 55 E JAC 55 ENE SUN 40 WSW 27U 60 ESE S80 55 SW MSO 20 SW 3DU 15 ENE BZN 25 ESE REJ 15 NW MHE 45 ENE ANW 15 SE DEN 40 W RTN 30 SSW GNT 30 NW CNM 40 SW END 10 S OJC 15 NW LAF 35 E TOL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO PA... VERY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THIS REGION S OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SRN NH WSWWD INTO NWRN PA. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORE VIGOROUS STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...MODERATE FLOW THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...OH / TN / MID MS VALLEY REGION... MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE FROM SERN MO / AR ENEWD ACROSS THE TN / LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER SWRN MO. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LIMITED...MODERATE WSWLY FLOW IN APPROXIMATELY THE 850 TO 600 MB LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH PULSE STORMS -- OR SMALL LINE SEGMENTS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...FL... WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AFFECTING FL ATTM HAS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF THE MORE VIGOROUS SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/14/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm2co015268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150552 SWODY1 SPC AC 150551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 30 WNW MER 55 NNW SAC 30 E RBL 35 NNW SVE 60 NW LOL 10 SW BAM 20 E SLC 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 NE RWL 35 NNE CPR 20 W GCC 15 E REJ 20 W RRT ...CONT... 10 E MQT 30 NNE EAU 20 ESE ANW 30 S SNY 15 SE LIC 35 NNW CAO 35 NE AMA 25 SE GAG 15 NE ICT 15 W MKC 35 E IRK 25 NNW BMI 25 WNW FWA 30 ENE MGW 30 ESE CXY 15 SSE POU BOS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS PROGGED TO DIG FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO ...AND INTERACTION WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS SURFACE FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY...IN WEAKLY SHEARED...BUT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ELSEWHERE...CLOSED LOW/TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/COLORADO VALLEY REGION. ...MID SOUTH/EASTERN GULF STATES... STRONG HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY WEAK WAVE ALONG FRONT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH... FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THIS IS WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED SOUTH/EAST OF LINGERING MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...PROGGED SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST EAST OF HIGH CENTER...FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS NEAR STRONGEST CELLS. ...LEE OF SRN APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD ALSO HEAT STRONGLY TODAY. STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHERE FORCING MAY BE PROVIDED AS EARLY AS MID DAY BY TAIL END OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES... EXIT REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY. LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FROM PRIOR CONVECTION PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF HEATING/MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING...IN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 10:30:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 05:30:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171148.j7HBm3kB015271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151618 SWODY1 SPC AC 151616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ARG 25 NW POF 20 SE MDH HOP MKL 30 NNW MEM 10 WNW ARG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MQT 25 NNW EAU 20 ESE ANW 15 SE SNY 20 NNW LIC 15 NNW CAO 10 W TCC 15 SW CVS 55 E AMA 50 W END 20 ENE ICT 20 ESE OJC 20 WNW DEC 30 NE MIE LBE 30 ESE CXY 20 N EWR 20 WSW BID ...CONT... 45 SSE MRY 25 NE SJC 55 NNW SAC 30 NNE RBL 60 N SVE 45 NW WMC 60 NNW ENV 15 E OGD 45 S RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 SSW CPR 25 S SHR 35 NE SHR 40 NNE REJ 15 WSW BIS 40 NNW BIS 30 W MOT 60 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...MID ATLANTIC REGION TO MID MS VALLEY... WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EXISTS THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM VA...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...INTO OK. STRENGTH OF WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND LESSEN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NJ/VA/NC WESTWARD INTO MO/AR. ...MO/AR/IL/KY/TN... ONE AREA WITH AN APPARENT ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN MO/NORTHWEST AR MAY TRACK EASTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AR/SOUTHEAST MO...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN. THIS AREA IS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND IN REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...WHERE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CAP. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH ALONG WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL FORCING...SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CA/NV/AZ... WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...WITH POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS CA/NV MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER SOUTH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 12:35:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 07:35:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171352.j7HDqpgp003857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171246 SWODY1 SPC AC 171244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 10 NNW HIB 45 SE BJI 55 SSW BJI 50 W AXN 50 NE ATY 25 E BKX 25 SW SPW 35 NW LWD MKC 15 WSW OJC 35 N PNC 50 N GAG 25 N LBL 15 WSW IML 35 WNW PHP 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 SW TRM 15 NE TRM 25 ESE EED 55 SW GCN 60 SE PGA 10 N GNT 10 E ABQ 30 E ALM 20 SW GDP 25 ESE GDP 30 WNW HOB 25 SSW DHT 40 E LAA 35 N LAA 45 WNW ALS 45 SSE MTJ 40 WSW MTJ 25 NNE 4HV MLF 65 ESE TPH 55 E BIH 40 SSW BIH 30 NE FAT 30 NE MER 25 WNW TVL LOL 25 WNW BAM 15 NNW OWY 50 WNW TWF 40 E BOI 45 NNE BOI 70 SSE BNO 30 ESE 4LW 30 WNW LMT 60 NNE MFR 45 NE RDM 35 WSW PDT 20 NNE EAT 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 55 NNE MQT 15 E IMT 30 NE MSN 25 N MMO 20 WNW MIE 20 SW PKB 10 SSE SSU 20 SSE ORF ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 25 E COT 45 NW COT 25 NE DRT 55 ENE P07 20 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.... ...KS/NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EWD OVER WRN KS/NEB IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE AXIS OVER UT/WY. THIS LEAD WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS/NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD WAVE...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM OK/KS TOWARD NEB. A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL KS/NEB WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UT/WY MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENCOUNTERS THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO AN EWD/SEWD MOVING MCS BY TONIGHT...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SWD FROM NEB INTO KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 30 KT LLJ ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON SEVERE THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ...DAKOTAS/NRN MN TODAY... ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHILE THE STORMS ACROSS NW MN APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD ENEWD DURING THE DAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE DAY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW INVOF THE S CENTRAL ND/N CENTRAL SD BORDER...AND ALONG THE NE-SW BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ND THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY CLOUDS/RAINFALL THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WEAKENING MID-UPPER FLOW/SHEAR WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL COULD OCCUR TODAY WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY STRONGER ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ...MT/SE ID THIS AFTERNOON TO WRN ND TONIGHT... A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ESEWD FROM SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA TOWARD MT/NRN ID BY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO SE ID. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD ERN MT TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY WRN ND. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW /ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE LEAD WAVE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS/ SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE MARGINAL. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 15:12:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 10:12:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508171629.j7HGTWJp001146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171621 SWODY1 SPC AC 171620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 10 NNW HIB 45 SE BJI 55 SSW BJI 50 W AXN 50 NE ATY 25 E BKX 20 SW FRM 35 NW LWD FNB 25 N SLN 45 W HUT 40 SE DDC 20 NE LBL 15 WSW IML 35 WNW PHP 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 15 SSE PHX 10 S PRC 30 S GCN 10 WNW GCN 40 ESE SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 N OWY 60 N BOI 20 E ALW 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 15 E MFE 40 NW HDO 35 S SJT 70 NE P07 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OSC 10 N LAN FWA 30 NNW LUK 15 SW BLF 20 SE DAN 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE STRONGER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND INCREASING LEE CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM KS/CO INTO MT/ND. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...MAINTAINING A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND YIELDING FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...ND/MN... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN. ...SD/NEB... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WY IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP WEAKEN CAP ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND CENTRAL NEB. ...KS/OK... FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KS/OK SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WESTERN KS...AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHWEST OK. HOWEVER...THESE RISK AREAS MAY BE UPDATED AT 20Z AS SHORT-TERM TRENDS ARE MONITORED. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS FROM MS-SC...AND AHEAD OF WEAK MCV OVER EASTERN TN. GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 18:58:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 13:58:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508172015.j7HKFaZn002810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 172011 SWODY1 SPC AC 172009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE ELO 20 E HIB 35 SW HIB BRD 35 WSW STC 25 SSE RWF 20 WNW FOD P35 20 NE TOP 20 NE SLN 20 SW HUT 45 SSW P28 30 SSE LBL 55 ENE CDR 50 SE REJ DIK DVL 35 ESE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CHS 35 ENE SAV 30 WNW SAV 45 S AGS 30 WSW AGS 40 ESE AHN 35 ESE AND 35 N CAE 15 SSE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E MFE 40 NW HDO 35 S SJT 70 NE P07 15 S P07 ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 15 SSE PHX 10 S PRC 30 S GCN 10 WNW GCN 40 ESE SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 N OWY 60 N BOI 20 E ALW 45 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OSC 10 N LAN FWA 30 NNW LUK 15 SW BLF 20 SE DAN 20 E ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SC...ERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO CLOSED VORTEX ALOFT OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN MT AND ID BY END OF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL EWD EJECTION OF TROUGH NOW INDICATED OVER BLACK HILLS REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- BINARY OVER W-CENTRAL ND AND WRN SD AS OF 19Z - IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE EWD TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT PLUNGES SEWD FROM NERN MT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE ERN NC WWD ACROSS NRN SC AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH 18/12Z. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS DAKOTAS AND NWRN MN WITH CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING...AS APCHG NRN PLAINS TROUGH AIDS DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. REF SPC WW 27 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO OVER THIS REGION. FARTHER S...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS WRN OK. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT EACH GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...WITH DISTANCE FROM BLACK HILLS TROUGH. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOCUS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH MVC ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA...AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD OVER MO VALLEY INTO NWRN MO/NERN KS. MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY OVER NEB AND/OR DAKOTAS...AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN AREA. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGION FROM SRN AR AND MS EWD TO ERN NC/SERN NC...ALONG AN ASSORTMENT OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. PRIMARY BOUNDARY LAYER FOCI MAY BE NEAR COLD FRONT...INVOF WHICH SEVERAL MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SC...AS WELL AS SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SC AND OUTFLOWS FM CURRENT AND FUTURE CONVECTION FARTHER W. WITHIN BROADER 5% PROBABILITY AREA...RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS SC...S OF PRESENT ACTIVITY...AS FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZE. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST AND INTENSELY HEATED AT SFC...WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F YIELDING MLCAPES COMMONLY 3000-5000 J/KG IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. LOCALIZED 20-30 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THAT...DESPITE HIGH MIXING RATIOS...STILL MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL/CONCENTRATED NATURE OF SC SUB-REGIME AND DENSITY OF POTENTIAL DOWNBURST EVENTS...SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL RISK HAVE BEEN INSERTED. ...NRN MN... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- PRIMARILY N OF SFC WARM FRONT OVER BOUNDARY WATERS REGION...FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. 25-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. ...NRN ROCKIES... DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD FROM BITTERROOTS...AHEAD OF STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH IN PACIFIC NW. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUST AND HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 08/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 17 23:51:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 18:51:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508180109.j7I19Q9J006462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180107 SWODY1 SPC AC 180105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S INL 10 SSW HIB 20 ENE BRD 30 SSW BRD 45 SW STC 15 ENE OTG 45 SSW SPW 50 W LWD 35 WSW OJC 35 NNW BVO 40 ESE P28 35 WNW P28 10 NE HLC MCK LBF 15 SE VTN 45 WSW 9V9 15 NE PIR 10 SE MBG 60 NE MBG 20 SSE JMS 35 W FAR 30 SSW GFK 10 NNE GFK 25 S RRT 45 S INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 15 SW PHX 20 ENE PRC GCN 35 E SGU 25 ENE P38 30 SSE TPH 35 SSW BIH 25 ENE MER 50 W RNO 65 W WMC 40 SSW BOI 60 NNE BOI 20 NNE PDT 45 ESE EPH 55 NW FCA ...CONT... MFE 40 NW NIR 10 NE TPL BWD 45 WSW SJT 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PLN 20 SE MBS 15 SSW JXN BEH 30 NE VOK 20 NNW LSE 50 SW LSE 30 NNE PIA 40 W LUK 35 NE BKW 45 NNW RWI 10 WNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS... ...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN MN... EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL SD NEWD THROUGH SERN ND AND INTO NRN MN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO CNTRL AND SWRN NEB. THE WARM SECTOR S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE PRIMARY THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS NWD THROUGH ERN NEB AND SERN SD. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IN VICINITY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH SD. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN. WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING EWD WITH TIME. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MN. THEREFORE...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO MN OVERNIGHT. ...ERN NEB AND ERN KS THROUGH WRN IA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH W CNTRL NEB SWD THROUGH WRN KS. E OF THIS FEATURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FROM CNTRL NEB THROUGH CNTRL AND E CNTRL KS. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. A BAND OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS IS PROMOTING STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN FARTHER NWD. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER KS AND NEB. THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM ERN ND/NERN KS INTO WRN IA. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MN WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH ERN MT AND SPREADING INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 04:46:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 23:46:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508180604.j7I64C9g008841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180601 SWODY1 SPC AC 180600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MTW 40 NE FWA 25 S DAY 35 E OWB 35 NE PAH 45 SW STL 30 WSW COU 20 SSE OJC 15 NNE TOP 35 N FNB 50 W DSM 25 NNW FOD 10 SE MKT 20 WSW EAU 10 ENE AUW 30 SSE MTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N PHP 45 WNW VTN 45 WNW BFF 25 NW DGW 10 NE GCC REJ 65 N PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 10 NNW ALB 20 SW ISP ...CONT... 15 W SBA 20 NE SMX 50 ENE PRB 35 SW BIH 45 W TPH 15 SSW U31 20 SE BAM 30 NNE BAM 35 W WMC 60 WNW WMC 50 E 4LW 40 SSE BNO 45 WNW BOI 50 SSW S80 20 SSE S06 15 WNW FCA 35 W CTB 50 SW HVR 75 E LWT 40 N MLS 45 NNW DIK 20 WSW MOT 60 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CEZ 20 NW SAF 25 SE ALS 25 NW TAD 30 ENE TAD 50 W EHA 35 NW LBL 25 NNE GCK 35 SSE MCK 25 WNW MCK 30 E AKO 30 W LIC 40 S 4FC EGE PUC 50 SW PUC 20 SSW 4BL 30 SW CEZ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN WY INTO WRN SD... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO MN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH SRN SD. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWWD THROUGH IA AND INTO NERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD THROUGH CNTRL WI. FARTHER W...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN THE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OR REINFORCEMENT OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SRN MN THROUGH CNTRL WI E OF THE SURFACE LOW. S OF THE E-W BOUNDARY AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR...BELOW INCREASING LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY AND OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE DAY. A 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM IA EWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL ABOVE THE MODEST 20-30 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S AND SW ALONG AND E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. ...ERN WY THROUGH WRN SD... NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER PARTS OF ERN WY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH ERN WY AND WRN SD WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO 40 KT WLY AT 6 KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 11:18:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 06:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508181235.j7ICZfZN032664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181233 SWODY1 SPC AC 181231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FNB 15 NE FNB 35 ENE LWD 25 E DSM 35 E FOD 20 NE MCW 25 S LSE 25 N MSN 15 N BEH 20 SSW AZO 30 NE FWA 35 NW LUK 25 WSW SDF 30 E PAH 20 W PAH 30 SE VIH 25 WSW SZL 25 E TOP 25 S FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW 45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ART 35 NE BGM 15 ESE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG ...CONT... DRT 30 ENE JCT 35 SSW PRX 15 NNE PGO 10 NE BVO END 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 W SBA 20 NE SMX 50 ENE PRB 35 SW BIH 45 W TPH 25 SW U31 35 NNW U31 20 SSE WMC 35 W WMC 60 WNW WMC 50 E 4LW 40 SSE BNO 45 WNW BOI 50 SSW S80 20 SSE S06 15 WNW FCA 35 W CTB 50 SW HVR 75 E LWT 40 N MLS 20 NE SDY 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE COS 30 NNE TAD 50 W EHA 25 N EHA 20 NNW GCK 35 SSE MCK 25 WNW MCK 30 E AKO 30 NNE COS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA/NRN MO TO WRN WI AND IL/INDIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN WY INTO WRN/CENTRAL SD.... ...IA/MO TO IL/INDIANA TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN IA/SWRN MN THIS MORNING WILL EJECT EWD TO LOWER MI BY TONIGHT...WHILE A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES CONTINUES EWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY COMPLEX FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE NRN PLAINS. OF GREATEST CONSEQUENCE IS A LOW ACROSS NW IA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD AND SWWD TO CENTRAL KS...AND A WARM EXTENDING EWD NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND THEN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND ERN KY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...MID-UPPER WLY FLOW OF 40-60 KT AND SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS. THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS SWRN WI/ERN IA MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL...WHILE THE ELEVATED STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL MO SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHING NE IA...WITH INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR E OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE LATE EVENING. FARTHER SW...THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN MO AREA SHOULD FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...SD/ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/ERN WY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY... WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTION IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD EWD AS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SD TONIGHT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL ERN WY/WRN SD ACTIVITY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT IN SD WITH ELEVATED STORMS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 15:06:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 10:06:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508181623.j7IGNobP028800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181614 SWODY1 SPC AC 181612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BIE 15 NE BIE 35 ENE LWD 40 W CID 20 NW ALO 40 SSE RST 25 S LSE 25 N MSN 25 SW LAN 30 NE FWA 35 NW LUK 35 S BMG 15 E MVN 35 SW BLV 20 N TBN 25 WSW SZL 15 E MHK 30 S BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW 45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 55 WNW AUS 45 ESE DAL 20 NW PGO TUL 20 NW OKC 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 30 WNW TRM 30 NE RAL 20 WNW DAG 40 NW DRA 40 SE TPH TPH 55 NW TPH 20 WSW NFL 40 ENE SVE 75 SE 4LW 85 SSE BNO BOI 70 NNW SUN 55 SSW MSO 25 WSW FCA 45 NE FCA 50 SW HVR 55 NE BIL 35 N 4BQ 20 SW DIK 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 35 NNW MSV 15 SSE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX 20 WNW LHX 20 SE TAD 40 ESE RTN 15 E CAO 25 N EHA 50 E LAA 40 S GLD 40 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC 35 N LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY AND SD... ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WI/IL AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. FIRST BATCH OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN IL. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CHI AREA AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION...ALLOWING AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE AND PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS FARTHER WEST ACROSS EASTERN IA IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF IA BEFORE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...SUGGESTING AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE FACTORS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AFFECTING NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL. ...SD/WY... SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHWEST WY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ATOP COOL/MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS OVER NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 18:43:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 13:43:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508182001.j7IK1JEH021325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181958 SWODY1 SPC AC 181957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BIE 15 NE BIE 35 ENE LWD 40 W CID 20 N ALO 20 S EAU 10 NE AUW 15 SE TVC 15 E MBS 15 NNW MFD 50 SE DAY 15 E BMG 35 S MTO ALN 10 SE COU SZL 15 E MHK 30 S BIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MBG 35 WSW ABR 35 WNW HON 10 SW 9V9 55 WNW VTN 30 WSW CDR 15 ESE DGW 45 NNE CPR 35 WNW GCC 30 S 4BQ 25 W REJ 30 WNW MBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MSS 35 NNW MSV 15 SSE AVP 10 NNW BWI 35 SW NHK 25 NE ECG ...CONT... DRT 55 WNW AUS 45 ESE DAL 20 NW PGO TUL 20 NW OKC 65 ESE LBB 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 30 WNW TRM 30 NE RAL 20 WNW DAG 40 NW DRA 40 SE TPH TPH 55 NW TPH 30 SE LOL 45 WSW WMC 60 N WMC 55 NW OWY 25 ESE BOI 60 SSW 27U 55 SSW MSO 25 WSW FCA 45 NE FCA 50 SW HVR 75 WNW MLS 30 S GDV 40 NNW DIK 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N LHX 20 WNW LHX 20 SE TAD 40 ESE RTN 15 E CAO 25 N EHA 50 E LAA 40 S GLD 40 SW GLD 45 ESE LIC 35 N LHX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY AND WRN/CNTRL SD... ...UPPER MIDWEST EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND LOWER/CNTRL OH VALLEY... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI. AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN 500 MB WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH 35-45 KT WLY FLOW FROM ERN NEB EWD INTO WRN IND. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SERN MN/W-CNTRL WI WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ESEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN OH AND CNTRL PA. TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NERN KS...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SWRN MN/NWRN IA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS NEWD TONIGHT INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. EXPECT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ESEWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AIR MASS COUPLED WITH 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST FROM NEAR SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENCE ZONE AS FAR WWD AS NRN MO/NERN MO. BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN WAKE OF WRN GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FINALLY...ADDITIONAL STORMS IN PROGRESS FROM WRN KY INTO SRN OH HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ON THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ...WY/SD... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ND/SD THEN WWD INTO CNTRL WY. RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY-LAYER TO WARM OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN SD INTO ERN WY WITH ATMOSPHERE NOW WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS WY AND S-CNTRL MT. INCREASING WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT N OF FRONT INTO CNTRL SD. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL KS INTO NERN TX PNHDL... AIR MASS ALONG WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS HEATED WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED CBL AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. CURRENT GRENADA CO AND HAVILAND KS PROFILERS INDICATE SWLY 30 KT WINDS AT 6 KM AGL. DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD OBSERVED OVER THE NERN TX PNHDL AND LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 08/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 18 23:54:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 18:54:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508190111.j7J1Bh1r028249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190108 SWODY1 SPC AC 190107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MHK BIE 20 NE LWD 35 SSE CID 40 W JVL 40 SSE CWA 20 NNW GRB 30 S TVC MBS 30 ENE FDY 35 WSW CMH 40 WSW LUK 45 NNE EVV 20 ESE BLV JEF 25 S TOP 15 ESE MHK 40 NNW MHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DRT 55 W AUS 25 E ACT 10 SE TXK 20 ENE FYV 40 WSW JLN 20 WSW END 60 SSW CDS 45 SE MAF 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... CZZ TRM 55 ESE DAG 35 SW LAS 15 NNE DRA 30 SE TPH 20 NNW TPH 45 SSW U31 30 SE LOL 30 WSW WMC 60 N WMC 60 NW OWY 25 ESE BOI 60 SSW 27U 55 SSW MSO 15 E 3TH 20 SSW CTB 50 ENE GTF 25 WNW BIL 45 WNW REJ 35 NW BIS 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 30 SSW UCA 35 SSE IPT 15 N DCA 30 WNW ORF 30 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LIC LHX 30 E TAD 25 NW CAO 30 ENE CAO 20 NE EHA 25 NNW GCK 50 WSW HLC 20 NNW GLD 40 ENE LIC 40 S LIC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEYS... ...GREAT LAKES THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL WI ESEWD THROUGH SERN WI AND INTO SRN LOWER MI. A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN IA...EXTREME NRN MO INTO NERN KS. A SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS FROM NRN IL NWD INTO SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM NERN KS THROUGH IL AND SERN WI WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL FARTHER EWD INTO MI...IND AND OH WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS MAINLY OVER SERN WI AND WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER NERN IL. STORMS OVER SERN WI ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ENHANCED WHERE STORMS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LCL HEIGHTS...0-1 KM LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT EXIST. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT FARTHER EAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIMITING EFFECTS OF THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER SWWD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN KS...NRN MO INTO IL. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MORE VEERED TO SWLY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HAIL SIZE MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -5C. OVERNIGHT...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY. STORMS OVER MO AND KS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. THOUGH SOME BACKBUILDING WILL BE POSSIBLE...STORMS MAY BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING ONCE A COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED WITH AN INCREASING ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS SPREAD EWD. ...NWRN NEB THROUGH SD... THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT IN ERN SD. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER W OVER WRN NEB INTO ERN WY AND WRN SD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 04:51:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 23:51:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508190608.j7J68vF2025472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190607 SWODY1 SPC AC 190605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 20 SSE CRW 40 SSE MVN 35 NE CNU 10 SE SLN 50 SSW HSI 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 WNW CGX 40 S SBN 30 E FWA 15 SSE ARB 40 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW EFK 10 SW MPV PSF TTN 35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN RAL 20 WSW PMD 25 WNW EDW 50 W DRA 55 N DRA 30 ESE ELY 15 S MLD 40 SW COD 30 ENE BIL 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ABQ 20 NW TCC 35 NNW EHA 20 NNW GLD 40 NE LIC 20 WSW LIC 55 W PUB 45 WSW ALS 10 SW FMN 25 NE GUP 50 NW ONM 35 SE ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 40 NNW ESF 45 NW GWO 15 N JBR 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 35 E CSM 40 SSW CDS 30 SSE MAF 35 W SJT 45 WSW BWD 30 WNW TPL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCLUDE AND SHIFT EWD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH WRN NY AND PA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH NRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER W THE OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH SD WILL SHIFT EWD AND EXTEND SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NEB. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NEB AND INTO ERN CO. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH PARTS OF IA AND INTO NRN IL. ...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MS VALLEY... STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SERVE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM ERN NEB INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. OWING TO PROXIMITY OF GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT FROM ERN NEB INTO IA AS WELL AS FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ...NERN U.S.... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT GENERALLY IN VICINITY OF AND E OF THE N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF PA...THE MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NY DURING THE DAY. THE WARM SECTOR W OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NEWD AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO PROVIDED STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 11:42:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 06:42:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508191259.j7JCxjr1015996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191257 SWODY1 SPC AC 191255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ROC 35 E BFD 30 ESE LBE 25 W MGW 20 NNW ZZV 15 SE CLE 70 E MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 10 NE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX 25 E MDH 20 E CNU ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 WSW HLC 35 SE LBF 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 WNW CGX 35 SE SBN 15 E JXN 45 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN RAL 20 WSW PMD 25 WNW EDW 50 W DRA 55 N DRA 30 ESE ELY 15 S MLD 40 SW COD 30 ENE BIL 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 40 NNW ESF 45 NW GWO 15 N JBR 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 35 E CSM 40 SSW CDS 30 SSE MAF 35 W SJT 45 WSW BWD 30 WNW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ABQ 25 SE LVS 45 N CAO 30 ESE LIC LIC 20 NE COS 55 W PUB 45 WSW ALS 10 SW FMN 25 NE GUP 50 NW ONM 35 SE ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NNE LCI 25 NW GON TTN 35 SSW ACY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRT LKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD SWATH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MO VLY EWD TO THE CNTRL/NRN APLCNS... ...SYNOPSIS... PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR MID AUGUST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS AND STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY. THE SURFACE LOW WITH LEAD IMPULSE...NOW NEAR APN...SHOULD OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES E INTO ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING S/SE FROM THE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE NE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NY /PA. TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE LWR OH VLY...BUT EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION LIKELY WILL BE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT MCSS OVER REGION. FARTHER W...MCS OUTFLOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID/LWR MO VLYS. THIS MAY LEAVE TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD REGION...ONE ALONG COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SE SD/NRN/ERN NEB...AND ANOTHER INVOF MCS OUTFLOW OVER NRN PARTS OF KS/MO. ...LWR GRT LKS... TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT CROSSING ERN OH/WRN PA AND WRN NY. COMBINATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S/ AND 40+ KT DEEP WNW SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. COUPLED WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF WARM FRONT AND LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH REGIONAL PWS...SETUP MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL FAVOR STORM MOTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY INTO THE COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...PRESENT AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT A SUFFICIENTLY WIDE CORRIDOR FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT CONTINUE E AND WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. ...MID/LWR MO VLY TO CNTRL PLNS/MID MS/LWR OH VLYS... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER PARTS OF SE SD...ERN AND SRN NEB...WRN IA...NRN AND ERN KS AND MUCH OF MO LATER TODAY. THE NRN PART OF THIS REGION WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR AS BAND OF 40+ KT WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH SPREADS TOWARD THE MID MS VLY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM CONCERNING WHERE THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED STORMS WILL FORM. BUT PRIND ARE THAT CONVERGENCE INVOF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH INTERSECTION...AND EXPECTED LOCAL MAX IN INSTABILITY...MAY YIELD A FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER NE NEB/SE SD. ANOTHER FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY MAY BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL KS ESE INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...WITH BOTH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS AND INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS THAT EXTEND AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL INTO THE NIGHT E INTO THE MID MS VLY. PARTS OF THE MID/LWR MO VLY REGION MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO BECOME MORE APPARENT. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 15:32:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 10:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508191649.j7JGnvAx010042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191647 SWODY1 SPC AC 191646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ROC 35 E BFD 30 ESE LBE 25 W MGW 20 NNW ZZV 15 SE CLE 70 E MTC. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CNK 15 WSW OLU 25 NNE SUX 30 ESE SPW 30 NNW CID 25 SW MLI 10 WNW UIN 50 N SZL 30 N TOP 25 NNE CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 10 SSE IPT 20 WSW MRB 10 NE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX 25 E MDH 20 E CNU ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 WSW HLC 35 SE LBF 30 NNW BUB 20 NE MHE 35 NNW RWF 20 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 SSE RFD 15 SE FWA 10 WSW DTW 55 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 50 SSW COD 15 SE BIL 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 45 E ESC 30 WSW MBL 20 WNW MKG 35 NNE BEH 15 N AZO 20 ESE LAN 10 NE MBS 30 SW APN 30 E PLN 40 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 NNW BML 20 NNW LCI 25 WNW GON JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 55 NW ESF 35 NW GLH 15 SSW ARG 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 40 W OKC 35 ESE CDS 35 NE BGS 35 W SJT 30 WNW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABQ 25 ESE LVS 35 NNW CAO 25 NNE TAD 20 E ALS 45 WSW ALS 25 SSE FMN 35 NE GUP 10 SE GNT ABQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN OH..WRN PA..WRN NY..NRN WV PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB..NERN KS..IA..NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH COMPACT UPPER LOW APPROACHING NRN LAKE HURON EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND OPEN INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPSTREAM LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE MANITOBA/ND/NRN MN BORDER REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NEARING LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD FROM THE LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT CONTINUES WWD/NWWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO SRN MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LAKE HURON LOW INTO CENTRAL VA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD. A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY... CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO THIN ACROSS OH WHERE STRONG HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. THIS CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PARTS OF NY AND PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F COUPLED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE HURON UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS LOWER MI/SWRN ONTARIO MAY BE STRONGEST OVER CANADA...HOWEVER WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND BETTER DEFINED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH 12Z ETA GENERATING LITTLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WHEREAS 15Z RUC AND 09Z SREF GUIDANCE ETAKF AND RSM MEMBERS INDICATE GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WITH CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ELEVATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING ATTM OVER PARTS OF KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG/NORTH OF AN EAST/WEST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD ERN NEB AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG. ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB..NERN KS..IA..AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITHIN SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THREAT FOR CONSIDERABLE SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF SRN MN. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 18:33:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 13:33:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508191951.j7JJpGkm013020@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191946 SWODY1 SPC AC 191945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SYR 35 NNW ELM 45 E BFD 20 NE DUJ 20 SSE FKL 20 E YNG 25 NW ERI. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FNB 15 E OMA 40 WSW SPW 25 NNE SPW 35 E FRM 20 WNW DBQ MLI 10 ENE BRL 30 SW BRL 10 E IRK 35 WSW IRK 35 NE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MSS 25 E IPT 20 WSW MRB 15 ESE SSU 35 SSW PSK 30 WNW TRI 40 SW LEX 25 E MDH 25 ENE CNU ICT 25 SW DDC 55 WSW HLC 35 W EAR 30 ENE BUB 25 W FSD 30 SE AXN 45 NE MSP 10 NE VOK 20 SSE RFD 30 NE FWA 10 WSW DTW 55 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 NNW LCI 25 WNW GON JFK ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 45 E ESC 30 WSW MBL 20 WNW MKG 35 NNE BEH 15 N AZO 20 ESE LAN 10 NE MBS 30 SW APN 30 E PLN 40 SE ANJ ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 50 SSW COD 15 SE BIL 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW TPL 35 SSE TYR 55 NW ESF 35 NW GLH 15 SSW ARG 40 E HRO 25 NW FYV 40 W OKC 35 ESE CDS 35 NE BGS 35 W SJT 30 WNW TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABQ 25 ESE LVS 35 NNW CAO 25 NNE TAD 20 E ALS 45 WSW ALS 25 SSE FMN 35 NE GUP 10 SE GNT ABQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN PA AND WRN NY... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER IA AND PART OF NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL PA/NY... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW ACROSS ERN LOWER MI AND LAKES ERIE INTO ONTARIO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER CNTRL LAKE HURON WITH A WAVY WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED SEWD INTO CNTRL LAKE ONTARIO AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN PA. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W...A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE DEMARKED TRANSITION FROM SSWLY WINDS OVER ERN OH TO SSELY OVER FAR WRN PA. FARTHER TO THE W...COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SURFACE LOW SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH...NRN IND INTO NRN IL. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SWRN ONTARIO NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARM FRONT AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO BUILD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS HEATING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AIDS IN ELIMINATION OF REMAINING CAP. A NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER SHEAR BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL NY/PA THIS EVENING BEFORE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTIVELY STABILIZES BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN KS INTO SRN NEB OWING TO DESTABILIZATION OF AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT PER 18Z TOP AND OMA SOUNDINGS. WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH S-CNTRL CANADA UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE N OF REGION...MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN/CNTRL IA...ALONG WITH MERGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS....SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION/GROWTH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOP TO GBD TO NEAR DDC. HERE...STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT SWLY WINDS AT 6 KM AGL WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR EVEN POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD 2033 WHICH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. FARTHER TO THE N...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB. SOME VERTICAL CUMULUS GROWTH IS BEING OBSERVED OVER CNTRL MN...AND AS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINS OVERSPREADING FRONTAL ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HERE TOO...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST THAT LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWING STRUCTURES MAY BE MORE THE PREFERRED CONVECTIVE MODE. MERGER OF COLD FRONTAL STORMS AND NRN KS/SRN NEB CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY OCCUR OVER IA SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING. HERE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS /AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO/ WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 19 23:47:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 18:47:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508200104.j7K14dO2013148@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200102 SWODY1 SPC AC 200101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HTS 30 NNW 5I3 20 ESE JKL 40 SSW SDF 20 ESE VIH CNU 30 WSW P28 20 ESE DDC 45 SW RSL 25 W MHK 15 W FNB 60 SE OMA 20 ESE FOD 40 SE MKT 35 S MSP 35 WSW EAU 25 SSE EAU 15 W JVL 15 SW CGX 40 NNE LAF 25 SSW DAY 30 NNW HTS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE PBG 50 ENE BGM 30 SSE CXY 20 SW ILM ...CONT... 75 E MQT 45 W PLN 30 SSW MBL 10 SSE BEH 30 NNW MIE 25 SE UNI 10 NNW HLG 40 WSW ERI ...CONT... 15 SSE DRT 35 SSE BWD 35 S ELD 10 S 0A8 45 ENE RMG 45 NE CSV 15 SW PAH 10 SSW UMN 40 SW END 40 ESE PVW MAF 20 SW P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 45 NNW TRM 40 NNW DAG 60 W DRA 40 NNW DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E EKO 50 S TWF 30 WSW MLD 30 WNW BPI 45 NNW SHR 15 N REJ 25 S PIR 25 NW MHE 25 S BRD 20 NNW ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SRN OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND ERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS AND OH VALLEYS... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SWRN THROUGH ERN KS AND INTO NRN MO. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE SWLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT FROM KS INTO MO...AND THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME SWWD BACKBUILDING. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER NERN KS HAVE DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HAIL SIZE. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME OVER SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...WRN NY THROUGH WRN PA... NARROW SPACE AND TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WRN NY AND WRN PA APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. SOME OVERLAP OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PERSISTS IN VICINITY OF A N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM WRN NY INTO WRN PA. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER...BUT WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVELY STABLE. ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OVER NWRN PA AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. ...NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB AND WRN KS... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 04:19:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2005 23:19:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508200536.j7K5am7x026547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200534 SWODY1 SPC AC 200532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 15 WSW BGM 25 N HGR 10 NNE BKW 30 S JKL 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 30 E CSM 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 25 N LAA 45 ENE DDC 35 NNE CNU 35 ENE COU 15 NW CMI 15 S BEH 45 W MBS APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 15 NW BLH 15 N NID 55 NE MER 40 WNW TVL 30 NW RNO 40 WNW U31 55 S EKO 30 WNW DPG 30 NW EVW 35 SE RWL 55 NW CDR 50 ENE ANW 25 SE YKN 10 WSW MCW 20 NNE LSE 45 SW IWD 25 W HIB RRT ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 NNW BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER S CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO SATURDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN CANADA WITH TRAILING FRONT MOVING EWD TO EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH WI...IA AND NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE FRONT FROM OK AND KS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ...OH VALLEY AREA... SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE DICTATED LARGELY BY EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS. LARGE MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD INTO KS. RECENT RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS AN MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION OVER NRN MO. A COUPLE OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL. TIMING THE NRN MO ACTIVITY PUTS IT OVER NRN IND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY AND STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING OVER IL AND IND EWD INTO OH...SRN LOWER MI AND WRN PA DURING THE DAY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AND S OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. THE STRONGEST WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED FROM LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF IND...OH AND PA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...PROVIDED THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WHICH WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES. ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. HEIGHTS RISE AND MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND THESE COULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS TO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB...IA AND NERN CO WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 15:17:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 10:17:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508201634.j7KGYlWj022843@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201622 SWODY1 SPC AC 201620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 15 WSW BGM 25 N HGR 10 NNE BKW 30 S JKL 25 WSW DYR 15 SW FSM 20 NE LTS 30 S DHT 20 W CAO 20 SSW LHX 20 NNE LAA 45 ENE DDC 35 NNE CNU 35 ENE COU 15 NW CMI 15 S BEH 45 W MBS APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MFE 35 SSE AUS CLL 50 ENE ACT 75 NE P07 95 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 WSW YUM 10 NW BLH 65 WNW EED 10 WSW DRA 45 ESE TPH 55 SSE EKO 40 SSE ENV EVW 45 ESE RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 25 NNE FOD 25 WNW DBQ 15 WNW OSH 15 SE IMT 10 WNW CMX ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 SSE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS SHORT WAVE RIDGE INDICATED OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA...AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... CONTINUING WSWWD INTO SRN KS REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM NRN OH INTO SERN IL. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... WARM AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT FROM SERN IL INTO SWRN OH ATTM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 85-90F RANGE AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST OWING TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. RUC HOURLY DATA INDICATES CAP IS WEAKENING ACROSS INDIANA AND OH...AND CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING IN VERTICAL EXTENT ALONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GUS TO SLO IN INDIANA/SRN IL. THIS MAY SERVE AS PRECURSOR TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW ABOVE THE PBL IS MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 40KT WINDS EVIDENT ON IND AND CLE VAD PROFILES IN THE 3-4 KM LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD WITH A THREAT FOR MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA..OH..NRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING WRN PARTS OF PA AND NY AND NWRN WV THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...KS/OK INTO MO/NRN AR... LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO NERN OK THEN WWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. AIRMASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND CONTINUED HEATING /ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN OK/WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA IS GENERALLY WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 18:28:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 13:28:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508201946.j7KJknXI026773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201943 SWODY1 SPC AC 201942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW MSS 15 WSW BGM HGR 15 NW SSU 50 SE LOZ 30 SW DYR 15 SW FSM FSI 35 NW CDS 35 SSE DHT 40 W EHA 50 N EHA 35 WNW P28 30 WSW TBN 25 SW STL 20 N HUF 15 S BEH 50 SW HTL 25 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW YUM 10 NW BLH 65 WNW EED 10 WSW DRA 45 ESE TPH 55 SSE EKO 40 SSE ENV EVW 45 ESE RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 25 NNE FOD 25 WNW DBQ 15 WNW OSH 15 SE IMT 10 WNW CMX ...CONT... 40 N BML 10 SSE EWB ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 35 SSE AUS CLL 50 ENE ACT 75 NE P07 95 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM CNTRL NY/PA SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES... TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AND IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM SRN IL NEWD INTO OH AND WRN PA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ DESPITE RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE SITUATED WITHIN A BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. DESPITE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED IN REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR BOWING OR LEWP LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND SWATH. EXPECT THIS DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA TONIGHT...PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILITY. ...SRN MO/NRN AR INTO SRN KS AND OK... TSTMS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AS WELL AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE HOT AND MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ATTENDANT TO LARGE-SCALE TROUGH REMAIN N OF REGION WITH GENERALLY SWLY-WSWLY 10-20 KT WINDS AT 500 MB BEING OBSERVED INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. ...ERN CO... TSTMS ARE INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN CO AND NERN NM /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LOCAL PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN NEB/WRN IA... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NEB INTO W-CNTRL IA. IT APPEARS THAT DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THIS AREA WITH IMPLIED MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNSUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL LARGELY HAVE TO INITIATE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 20 23:45:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 18:45:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508210102.j7L12LC8024993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210059 SWODY1 SPC AC 210058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE AOO 25 WNW HGR 50 WSW MRB 10 WSW BKW 25 SE JKL 35 SSE LEX 25 ESE UNI YNG 15 E FKL 20 NNE AOO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 N PHX 30 NNW PRC 50 ENE LAS 60 N P38 15 S U24 35 SSW SLC EVW 45 ESE RKS 35 NW LAR 55 NW CDR 10 SE FOD 10 NE BRL 50 SSW BMG 10 NW DAY 50 ESE MTC ...CONT... 15 ENE EFK ISP ...CONT... BPT 20 SSE GGG 20 SE MWL 20 ENE BGS 45 SSE MAF 65 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN PA / WV / ERN KY... ...SWRN PA / WV / ERN KY... MODERATELY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER WSWWD ALONG FRONT FROM KY WWWD INTO OK...GREATER INSTABILITY PERSISTS...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. THEREFORE...THOUGH A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 04:43:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2005 23:43:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508210601.j7L619Dv005331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210558 SWODY1 SPC AC 210557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 50 NW GBN 25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF 40 WNW BIL 45 E 81V 40 WNW OFK 35 SSE OMA 25 NNE MKC 20 SW JEF 25 W MDH 40 ENE EVV 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE UPPER PATTERN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SWD AND WEAKENING WITH TIME INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD LINGER/DRIFT NWD AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK S OF TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD HINDER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FORECAST. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER S INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR...BUT WEAKENING FLOW WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMES WITHIN MODESTLY-DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING VORT MAX OVER CO. THOUGH STORMS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD...VERY WEAK WIND FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY PULSE STORMS...ALONG WITH LIMITED/LOCAL SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 11:44:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 06:44:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508211301.j7LD1XVP017991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211259 SWODY1 SPC AC 211257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 NW GBN 25 SSE P38 25 E U31 10 E LOL 10 SE MHS MFR DLS GEG 10 SE FCA GTF 40 WNW BIL 45 E 81V FSD 25 NW FOD 20 S CID 30 SW PIA 10 N STL 25 SE MDH 40 N LEX 45 SSW CMH 35 SW CAK 40 NE CLE ...CONT... 15 SW MFE 35 NNW VCT 25 NW AUS 40 ESE SJT 40 W SJT 60 E FST 25 SE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPR LOW NOW NEARING JAMES BAY SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO CNTRL QUEBEC THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E INTO MANITOBA. IN THE MUCH WEAKER SRN STREAM...UPR LOW NOW OVER NW CO EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY ESE...REACHING WRN KS BY 12Z MONDAY. AT LWR LEVELS...LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO LOW SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGHS E OF THE APLCNS. FARTHER SW...TRAILING WRN PART OF FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT N AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS. ...SRN NEW ENG/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF ONTARIO TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS REGION. THIS FLOW WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO REGION. COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE...THESE FACTORS SHOULD MINIMIZE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS...MAINLY ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SRN NEW ENG SWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. WHILE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN SRN NEW ENG/NY/NJ...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT. SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...MAY EXIST FARTHER S OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. BUT WEAKER DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLATED. ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION RESUMES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING CO UPR LOW. SETUP MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION...AND KEEP ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREATS LIMITED. AN AREA OR TWO OF ELEVATED STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO FORM EARLY MONDAY OVER ERN NEB AND IA AS WARM ADVECTION FOCUSES N OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE NOW MOVING S ACROSS SD/MN. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 15:21:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 10:21:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508211638.j7LGcQoD020104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211628 SWODY1 SPC AC 211627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 20 SE POU 15 NW PSF RUT 15 S MPV 20 SSW MWN 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSW PRC 50 W P38 60 ENE SVE 15 WNW MHS 45 S EUG DLS GEG 20 SW FCA 50 NE MSO 20 SSW BZN 20 S COD 40 S SHR 45 SSW REJ 40 S FSD 20 NNE BRL 30 W SPI 25 ESE MDH 35 SW SDF 25 SE LEX 15 WSW 5I3 40 S BLF 40 N GSO 40 S CHO 30 W ILG 10 S MSV 25 WSW GFL 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 25 W MFE 40 NNW VCT ACT 10 W SEP 15 ESE ABI 30 NW SJT 55 E FST 25 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AS REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. FARTHER WEST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN CO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS BEST INDICATED BY THETA/DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING ACROSS NY..PA THEN WWD ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. FARTHER WEST OVER THE PLAINS...THE FRONT MAY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...NEW ENGLAND... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THICKER CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DIABATIC HEATING WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN NY INTO SRN PARTS OF VT/NH. WARMING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING ESEWD INTO SERN NY ATTM...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. IN ADDITION..AN ISOLATED CELL HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH OVER WRN VT. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ETA..SREF..AND 00Z 4.5 KM WRF-NMM RUN INDICATES A BAND OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION /ESPECIALLY SRN NEW ENGLAND/ THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION BY EVENING. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT 40 KT WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 3-4 KM AGL WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ...COASTAL MID ATLANTIC REGION/ERN CAROLINAS... LOW LEVEL NWLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING EAST OF APPALACHIANS LIMITING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG IN NJ/DELMARVA REGION TO 3500 J/KG IN THE ERN CAROLINAS. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH... VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AOA -5C IS REDUCING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL PARCEL ASCENT. WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE AND KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN DURATION. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO KS/WRN MO IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW CELLS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN CO UPPER LOW. PRIMARY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NEB TONIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 18:39:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 13:39:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508211957.j7LJv3rR024427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211954 SWODY1 SPC AC 211952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BID 25 W GON 20 SSW BDL 10 NNW BAF 15 NNE ORH 15 ENE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 50 SSW PRC 50 W P38 60 ENE SVE 15 WNW MHS 45 S EUG DLS GEG 20 SW FCA 50 NE MSO 20 SSW BZN 20 S COD 40 S SHR 45 SSW REJ 15 SSE FSD 20 SW MLI 30 W SPI 25 ESE MDH 35 SW SDF 25 SE LEX 15 WSW 5I3 40 S BLF 40 N GSO 40 S CHO 30 W ILG 10 S MSV 25 WSW GFL 35 ENE MSS ...CONT... 25 W MFE 40 NNW VCT ACT 10 W SEP 15 ESE ABI 30 NW SJT 55 E FST 25 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CT...RI AND MA... ...NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INHIBITING MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEARS TO BE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CT/RI INTO SERN MA WHERE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. ...NC COAST WWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO AR/MO... DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MOREOVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF +30 F T/TD SPREADS OVER NRN MS INTO SERN AR WHICH SUGGEST A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER...THOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. OVER WRN PART OF REGION...NAMELY SRN MO/NRN AR...WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SERN KS/FAR SWRN MO. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MORE INTENSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. ...NEB/IA... ISOLATED CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED W OF OFK THIS AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /REF. NELIGH PROFILER/ AND IMPLIED CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...KS... TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND W OF HYS WITHIN REGION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND DENSE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN KS IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM MCK TO HLC TO BETWEEN GBD AND SLN MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT IN LOCAL PROFILERS SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY/DURATION...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 21 23:48:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 18:48:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508220105.j7M15e7Q021017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220103 SWODY1 SPC AC 220101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 45 NE CLL 40 ESE DAL 15 NW MWL 40 NNE BGS 20 ESE INK 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 40 SE PGA 45 SW ELY 40 SSW U31 45 N BIH 35 W BIH 45 NW TVL 35 NNW RNO 40 NW LOL LMT 40 S EUG 40 NNW DLS 55 WNW FCA 40 SSW CTB 25 W LWT 45 ESE LVM 25 NW RIW 35 SSE DGW 30 NE VTN 30 NNW BRL 40 SE UIN 40 SE MVN 10 N HOP 35 E RMG 40 SE SPA 25 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ATTM -- ACROSS NEB...WRN OK...AND SRN MO...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. NEB STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF A COLD POOL...AND STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER /25 TO 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN MO APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCING STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ...SC WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM SERN VA SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INVOF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY DISORGANIZED/PULSE-TYPE STORMS PREVAILING. A FEW SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED/SWWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AND SR AL...WHERE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 04:38:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2005 23:38:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508220555.j7M5tkpn015205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220553 SWODY1 SPC AC 220551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 NE FLG 35 SE SGU 65 N DRA 30 E MER 65 SE RBL 20 ENE LMT PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 55 E SUX 20 E DSM 15 NE ALN 35 NW EVV 20 SSE SDF 10 SW JKL 40 ESE 5I3 15 NNW ORF ...CONT... 40 NW LRD 25 S SAT 15 S TPL 25 SSW ABI FST 55 SW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE BML. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SMALLER VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- THROUGH MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG SEWD INTO THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD...PHASING WITH WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK/REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE GULF COAST STATES WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE/MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...ERN CO SEWD INTO OK... AIRMASS WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD/SEWD INTO KS/OK THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME PERSISTS. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY NEAR AND N OF REMNANT FRONT. THOUGH NAM FORECASTS 25 TO 30 KT WNWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...NAMKF DEPICTS MUCH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. WITH STRENGTH OF SHEAR LIKELY DETERMINING DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST MAINTAINING 5% WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WOULD COULD BE WARRANTED IF SHEAR IS INDEED STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ...THE SOUTHEAST... SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF REMNANT FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK WIND FIELD SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. BAND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF ERN U.S. TROUGH...BUT WITH STRONGER FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A 5% SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 11:42:32 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 06:42:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508221259.j7MCxkoM009731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221257 SWODY1 SPC AC 221256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE COS 25 SE FCL 20 SSE SNY GLD LBL 55 S LBL 15 NW CAO 20 ESE COS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 S SAT 15 S TPL 25 SSW ABI 20 S FST 90 SSW P07 ...CONT... 85 SSW GBN 15 ESE PHX 15 WNW FLG 35 S SGU 65 N DRA 30 E MER 65 SE RBL 20 ENE LMT PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 10 ESE Y22 55 E SUX 20 E DSM 15 NE ALN 35 NW EVV 20 SSE SDF 10 SW JKL 40 ESE 5I3 15 NNW ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 30 SSE CON 65 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN QUEBEC UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS COMPLEX UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN RCKYS. IN THE SRN STREAM...WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS AT LEAST THREE SHORTWAVE FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE IS OVER ERN ORE...ANOTHER IS NOW ENTERING CNTRL CA...AND A THIRD IS OVER NE CO. ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN APPARENT IMPULSE/POSSIBLE MCV OVER W TN. AT THE SURFACE...A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED FRONT WILL SETTLE SE ACROSS MT TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER N...A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL ALSO LINGER FROM NW TX ENE INTO THE LWR TN VLY. ...ERN CO SEWD INTO OK... AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS E/SE INTO WRN PARTS OF KS AND OK...AS CLEARING OCCURS IN WAKE OF OVER OVERNIGHT MCS. WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS REGION... MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL/OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW ON SRN SIDE OF CO IMPULSE SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS LATER TODAY...YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL BE WEAK. BUT INCREASING SHEAR WITH ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO AND CONTINUE E/SE INTO WRN KS/NW OK TONIGHT. ...TN VLY... STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE TN VLY TODAY AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS INVOF SMALL MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING E ACROSS REGION. GIVEN HI PWS AND BACKGROUND PATTERN FEATURING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS...SETUP COULD RESULT IN A BAND OR TWO OF STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS...POSSIBLY WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ...ID INTO WRN/NRN MT... CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF ORE UPR DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INFLUX...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ID/MT. SUPPORT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING UPR DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL SSW FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO ORGANIZE INTO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT BANDS THAT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 15:47:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 10:47:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508221704.j7MH4Z68014735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221655 SWODY1 SPC AC 221653 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 20 W YKN 35 N ALN 30 SW LUK 15 WSW RDU 25 NNW EWN 30 E ECG ...CONT... PSM 30 NNW BML ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 45 W ACT 15 SSW MWL 35 NNE ABI 20 SW BGS 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 10 SE PHX 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 15 ESE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN INDICATES POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER NERN ALBERTA/NWRN SASKATCHEWAN SWWD THRU VANCOUVER ISLAND. WEAK FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WITH DOMINATE RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLATEAU EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL ME... THEN CONTINUING FROM SRN SC AND CENTRAL GA INTO NRN LA. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL AR INTO SRN OK/NRN TX ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THEN NWWD THRU THE OK PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM S CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO N CENTRAL MT...THEN ANOTHER FROM CENTRAL WA INTO NWRN OREGON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO WRN SD AND PARTS OF MT... WEAK FLOW AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A LOW PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND ANY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OVERWORKED AREA. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...POSSIBLY 1500 J/KG. THUS...THERMODYNAMIC DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS...POSSIBLY INTO NWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD INTO ERN AND CENTRAL MT WHERE MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED A RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTEND NWWD INTO SERN MT. COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS EXTREME NWRN MT AT THIS TIME...AND MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION MOSTLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...SERN AND GULF STATES... VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. MOSTLY WEAK LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0-6.5C/KM ARE FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE SAME REGIME THAT MOSTLY REPORTED ISOLATED MARGINAL YESTERDAY. PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN TODAY WITH MARGINAL WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PULSE STORMS IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 18:23:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 13:23:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508221940.j7MJeTO8024077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221937 SWODY1 SPC AC 221935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 45 W ACT 15 SSW MWL 35 NNE ABI 20 SW BGS 65 S MRF ...CONT... 65 WSW TUS 20 SW PHX 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 15 ESE 4LW PDT 30 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 20 W YKN 35 N ALN 30 SW LUK 15 WSW RDU 25 NNW EWN 30 E ECG ...CONT... EPM 25 W BGR 25 ENE EFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... WIDESPREAD...EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM ELEMENTS WILL MERGE AND OVERTURN WHAT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SC INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STORM MERGERS OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GA...AND FARTHER WEST INTO PORTIONS OF MS AND WRN AL...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HOLDING IN THE 8-9C/KM RANGE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN SHIFTING CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS DEBRIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BENEATH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ESEWD...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. FARTHER NORTH...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NERN CO TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION WILL RESULT IN SLOW...SWD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT MAY LEND TO WEAK ROTATION...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. ...MT... DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS ONCE AGAIN FORCED DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN MT...SWD. STEERING CURRENTS FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS A FEW UPDRAFTS NEAR THE INITIATION REGION MAY GENERATE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OTHERWISE IT APPEARS AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. ..DARROW.. 08/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 22 23:42:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 18:42:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508230059.j7N0xxWX028825@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230057 SWODY1 SPC AC 230056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HLC 40 SW RSL 15 N P28 35 NW END 40 SW GAG 30 N DHT 50 SSE LHX 45 NNW LAA 50 SSW GLD 35 SE GLD 45 W HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LRD 20 NW CLL 15 NE DAL 35 SSE SPS 35 SSE LBB 40 WNW MRF ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 30 NW GBN 25 S EED 20 SSE LAS 20 SSE DRA 50 N TPH 15 ENE NFL 85 E 4LW 50 NNE BNO 35 N HVR ...CONT... 70 NNE ISN 30 SW MBG 30 NE FNB 20 E ALN 20 S HTS 50 SSW PSK 15 ENE RDU ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS/NWRN OK AND THE OK PANHANDLE/THE NRN TX PANHANDLE... ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... THOUGH REMNANT SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND THEN WNWWD INTO OK/CO...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS KS/OK AND VICINITY. AREA RAOBS AND PROFILER DATA CONFIRM NAM FORECASTS OF MODERATE /25 TO 30 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...S OF SLOW-MOVING VORT MAX OVER NERN CO/WRN NEB. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS ERN CO / NWRN KS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WITH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS KS/INTO OK WHERE MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. WITH DEGREE OF SHEAR FORECAST TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE PARTS OF THIS AREA TO SLIGHT RISK. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 03:48:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 22:48:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508230506.j7N562Wk019660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230503 SWODY1 SPC AC 230502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 W OAJ 25 NW SOP 30 E DAN 25 NE RIC WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CDR 25 NW MHN 40 SSW EAR 45 W HUT 45 NNE GAG 25 ESE LBL 30 NNW EHA 30 NNE LHX 50 NW AKO 55 NW BFF 20 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 25 E BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 35 ENE MHE 25 S SUX 25 WSW P35 25 ENE COU 30 NNW MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN VA / NERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER ERN CANADA/THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...WHILE BELT OF SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED FLOW ARCS ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY...AROUND S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS BELT OF FLOW AND PRESENCE OF LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES REGION WITH TIME. THOUGH ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MT...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM MT SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- INVOF COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NE-SW ACROSS MT...AS WELL AS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN MT SWD INTO ERN CO AND THEN SSEWD INTO WRN OK. THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THIS REGION...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SSEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. ACROSS THIS AREA...DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...MODELS FORECAST 30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JETLET TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST...VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- AS WELL AS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS INVOF NWRN KS WHICH SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME. ...SERN VA/NERN NC... THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF LINGERING FRONT -- FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES INTO AR. WITH BELT OF 20 TO 25 KT MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW FORECAST FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL HAIL/WIND THREAT. GREATER SEVERE THREAT HOWEVER MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SERN VA INTO NERN NC. NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. WITH THIS REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT/NE OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILE MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION -- PRIMARILY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 11:49:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 06:49:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508231307.j7ND78Lh018434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231302 SWODY1 SPC AC 231301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 W OAJ 25 NW SOP 30 E DAN 25 NE RIC WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CDR 25 NW MHN 40 SSW EAR 25 N ICT 30 NNE END 35 SE LBL 30 NNW EHA 20 ENE LHX 40 ENE FCL 55 NW BFF 20 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD 55 ESE SUX P35 25 ENE COU 30 NNW MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN DOV ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF ...CONT... IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 W BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC/SE VA... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAINED CONSIDERABLY AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS WEAKER/FLATTER SRN STREAM PERSISTS FROM THE GRT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS TO THE NC CST. QUEBEC UPR LOW SHOULD DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IMPULSE NOW CROSSING LWR MI CONTINUES E/SE AROUND BASE OF SYSTEM AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE WEST...SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS WRN BC /PER WV IMAGERY/ SUGGESTS THAT EXISTING TROUGH OVER BC AND THE PAC NW WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NW MT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WLY FLOW OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD ACCELERATE LEAD SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN ERN UT/WRN WY E INTO THE HI PLNS. AT LWR LEVELS...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE OF NOTE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM ERN NC W ACROSS THE TN VLY INTO SRN KS. FARTHER N AND W...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SE ACROSS WRN MT/ID.. WHILE ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS... SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS AS AXIS OF MODERATE MID LEVEL WLY FLOW /ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET/ PERSISTS OVER REGION. SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE SRN JET... COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM...SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AND/OR EXTEND SOMEWHAT FARTHER NWD TODAY ...AFFECTING PARTS OF ERN WY...ERN MT...WRN NEB AND WRN SD. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUPPORTED LARGELY BY DIURNAL UPSLOPE CIRCULATIONS...BUT MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD FROM UT/WRN WY. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM INVOF NE/SW COLD FRONT IN MT. ALTHOUGH A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN HI PLNS...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL FOCUS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SSE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS. WITH SURFACE HEATING BOOSTING MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO E/ESE-MOVING MASS THAT EXTEND A THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND INTO THE NIGHT INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. ...ERN NC/SE VA... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM/STRENGTHEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING INVOF DIFFUSE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER NC/SRN VA LATER TODAY...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE MAY REACH 1500 J/KG. MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT BELT OF 25-30 KT WNWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS ACROSS REGION...SUPPORTING SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. A SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SE VA/NE NC AS APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE NOW IN MI INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT/ WAVE...COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND MODERATE DEEP WLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF THE WLYS...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. ...CNTRL/SRN AZ... A FEW STORMS WITH WET MICROBURSTS MAY FORM ALONG DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING NE/SW ACROSS S CNTRL AX...WHERE HI PWS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ON FRINGE OF DEEPER CLOUDINESS. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 16:00:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 11:00:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508231717.j7NHHQJk030966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231638 SWODY1 SPC AC 231636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S RAP 60 ENE CDR 15 SSE MCK 35 S RSL 20 SW P28 15 SE LBL 45 NW EHA 10 ESE LHX 40 ENE FCL 55 NW BFF 40 S RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 N BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD P35 40 WSW STL 20 E MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN 10 S ACY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. AND ANOTHER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND NRN ROCKIES. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS N-S OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE PREDOMINANT RIDGE...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...LIES FROM TX EWD OVER THE GULF COAST AND SERN STATES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN NC WWD THRU CENTRAL GA...CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL MS. ALSO THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANOTHER NIGHT OF ACTIVITY THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO/KS THAT IS MOVING INTO NRN AND CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATED TWO WEAK LOWS...ONE OVER SERN CO ANOTHER NEAR/AROUND DENVER. FIRST PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HEATING POTENTIAL OVER SWRN KS INTO SERN CO. SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT REVEAL UPSLOPE FLOW YET DUE TO THE AIR MASS STILL BEING WORKED OVER FROM SEVERAL NIGHTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NAM MODEL HOWEVER SAYS MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER ERN CO. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT FREEZING LEVELS ARE AT 13K FEET AGL...TOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL. NO DOUBT THAT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AND E CENTRAL CO. THEN...FORM INTO AN OVERNIGHT MCS THAT WILL MOVE INTO WRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN...AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER WRN KS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH MID LEVELS BEING NEAR 7C/KM. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL INITIALLY THIS EVENING. ...SERN VA AND NC INTO THE GULF COAST STATES... CLOUDINESS INITIALLY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SERN VA WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AS NAM DEVELOPS WEAK LOW ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIR MASS REMAINS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE MOSTLY ALONG COASTAL NC /500-1500 J/KG/ AND MODELS SHOWING THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL NC BEING AROUND 500 J/KG AT BEST. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS NLY/NELY FLOW N OF A LINE FROM E CENTRAL NC INTO NWRN SC...WITH THE H85 FRONT FROM NEAR WAL-PTB-HKY LINE. THUS...WOULD ANTICIPATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT LIKE MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...WOULD EXPECT PULSE-LIKE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS OF MT INTO ND/SD... APPROACHING TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS MT INTO WRN AREAS OF ND/SD BY END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DEVELOP 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THIS AREA. THUS...INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5C/KM COULD RESULT IN DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ...SRN AZ... THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER REGION IN AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S. REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD LEAD TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 18:54:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 13:54:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508232011.j7NKBMeM022124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232009 SWODY1 SPC AC 232008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W AIA 45 WSW MHN 35 NNE HLC 20 SSE RSL 20 SW P28 25 NW GAG 10 NE CAO 40 E TAD 40 ESE FCL 20 WSW BFF 20 W AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ISN 25 ESE OLF 70 ENE LWT 45 NE GTF 45 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 60 WNW EED 30 SW TPH 35 SE LOL 45 WNW OWY 60 NE BOI 20 ESE LWS 30 SSE EAT 10 N BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 50 N ABR 15 NNE FSD P35 40 WSW STL 20 E MDH 35 NE BWG 25 SSW JKL 20 SE EKN 10 S ACY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 SW AUS 25 WNW TPL 30 WSW MWL 55 ENE BGS FST 45 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/NERN MT... ......AR/NRN MS... REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO/AR THIS AFTERNOON. DECAYING CLOUD DEBRIS AND STRONG SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF RENEWED CONVECTION. IT APPEARS ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF REMNANT MVC OVER NWRN AR...EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. REF MCD #2057 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. THIS AIRMASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND APPEARS RECEPTIVE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM/SRN CO...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. AS HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE WHERE FAVORABLE ELY COMPONENT AT LOW LEVELS...1KM...CONTINUES. ...ERN MT... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS CNTRL MT TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. OVER THE LAST HOUR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED NORTH OF GTF ALONG DEVELOPING WIND SHIFT. AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS MT CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO MAINLY SRN SASKATCHEWAN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN/NERN MT WHERE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 23:49:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 18:49:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508240107.j7O16gkS016573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240103 SWODY1 SPC AC 240101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BFF 45 WSW MHN 40 ENE MCK 20 SSE RSL 50 W END 50 W CSM 15 SSW CAO 15 SSE LHX 30 NE COS 10 WSW SNY 30 SE BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE IPL 40 NNE LAS 55 WNW ELY 30 ENE OWY 60 NE BOI 25 W 3DU 40 W PUW 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N DVL 50 N ABR 30 E MHE FLV 10 WNW TBN CGI 45 W CSV 35 N TYS 15 N CHO 35 SE DOV ...CONT... 25 SSW PSX 55 NNE CLL 30 SW DUA 30 ESE CDS 55 NE BGS 25 SW FST 50 SW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW EPM 15 NW BGR 40 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INVOF LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOUGH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. ACROSS THIS REGION...MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED...AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NERN CO SWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST BY THE NAM...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...ONE OR TWO MCSS MAY EVOLVE. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 23 23:52:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 18:52:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508240109.j7O19PHl018062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240106 SWODY1 SPC AC 240105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BFF 45 WSW MHN 40 ENE MCK 20 SSE RSL 50 W END 50 W CSM 15 SSW CAO 15 SSE LHX 30 NE COS 10 WSW SNY 30 SE BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSX 55 NNE CLL 30 SW DUA 30 ESE CDS 55 NE BGS 25 SW FST 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 40 NNE LAS 55 WNW ELY 30 ENE OWY 60 NE BOI 25 W 3DU 40 W PUW 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 N DVL 50 N ABR 30 E MHE FLV 10 WNW TBN CGI 45 W CSV 35 N TYS 15 N CHO 35 SE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY... CORRECTED THUNDER AREA ...ERN CO INTO WRN NEB/WRN KS/THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INVOF LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THOUGH MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. ACROSS THIS REGION...MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED...AND STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NERN CO SWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST BY THE NAM...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...ONE OR TWO MCSS MAY EVOLVE. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 04:49:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2005 23:49:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508240606.j7O66MSr010140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240604 SWODY1 SPC AC 240602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE EHA 55 NNW GCK 10 NW RSL 10 SSE EMP 15 S CNU 15 SE BVO 20 SSW END GAG 20 SSW LBL 45 NNE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 15 N GFK ABR 10 NE PIR 10 ENE RAP REJ 35 SSW P24 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W COT 40 NNW SAT 30 E SEP 30 SSE SPS 45 WSW SPS 70 SSW CDS 10 NE MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 10 NE RAL 40 WNW PMD 25 WSW NID 40 WSW DRA 25 ENE SGU 20 WNW 4HV 45 SSE EVW 55 ESE RIW 55 ESE WRL 25 E BIL 40 NNW BIL 45 SSE GTF 45 SSE CTB 35 N CTB ...CONT... 35 E INL 15 WNW STC 25 SE FRM 45 SSW ALO 35 ESE IRK POF 50 N HSV 40 SW TYS 25 WNW HSS TRI 55 N HKY 15 E HKY 25 ENE CLT 30 SSW RDU 20 S ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN KS / NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN FEATURE ALOFT THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO MT/ID. THIS FEATURE -- ACCOMPANIED BY A 70 KT JET AT MID-LEVELS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE -- WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME...WITH TROUGH AXIS REACHING SASKATCHEWAN/ERN MT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD LIE FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD INTO WRN SD AND THEN WWD ACROSS NRN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH BOTH STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECT TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...THE DAKOTAS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ND/CENTRAL AND WRN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CAP WEAKENS WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WWD AS NRN WY ALONG BOUNDARY...THOUGH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE -- AND TO SOME DEGREE INTENSITY. STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /70 KT JET AT MID-LEVELS/ WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INVOF FRONTAL ZONE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH 35 TO 45 KT FLOW AT MID-LEVELS EXPECTED ABOVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME LINEARLY-ORGANIZED RATHER QUICKLY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING PARTS OF WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN KS/NRN OK... THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN KS ATTM WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NRN OK AT THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REINFORCE BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW LYING ACROSS SERN CO/OK/N TX...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD/COLD POOL. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION /15 TO 20 KT/...BUT ASSUMING AFOREMENTIONED REINFORCEMENT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...ELY FLOW JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY VEERING TO WLY WITH HEIGHT MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/A FEW ROTATING STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...LIKELY MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE WITH TIME...VEERING JET MAY SUPPORT AN EWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER/MCS...PERHAPS REACHING THE OZARKS REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 11:34:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 06:34:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508241252.j7OCq1KO007280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241249 SWODY1 SPC AC 241248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE EHA 55 NNW GCK 10 NW RSL 10 SSE EMP 15 S CNU 15 SE BVO 20 SSW END GAG 20 SSW LBL 45 NNE EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 15 N GFK ABR 10 NE PIR 10 ENE RAP REJ 35 SSW P24 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 20 SE MKT 35 SSW ALO 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 65 NW LRD 55 NNW SAT 30 E SEP 20 N MWL 50 WSW SPS 75 SSW CDS 20 NNW MAF 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 45 SE U24 45 S EVW 45 NNW RWL 30 SE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 35 NNE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT NRN RCKYS UPR LOW HAS REACHED MAXIMUM AMPLIFICATION AND SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE NE INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED 70 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTS E FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND. SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH RCKYS LOW ATTM EXTENDS FROM ERN MT ACROSS NW WY INTO NRN NV. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REACH A CNTRL ND/WRN SD/CNTRL WY AXIS BY EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH ANOTHER OVER ERN UT. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD AND WEAKEN TODAY. A BIT FARTHER SE...DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM SRN KS/NRN OK ESE INTO THE LWR TN VLY. ...DAKOTAS... SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE...AND EXISTING CAP...EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LEADING EDGE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS UPR LOW FINALLY REACHES ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT. A RICH BUT RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOOSTING MLCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG. BAND OF STRONGEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY WILL REMAIN W OF FRONT. BUT EXPECTED 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. SHARP LINEAR FORCING OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND ITS ORIENTATION ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO MEAN TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL QUICKLY MERGE INTO BANDS. STRENGTH OF SHEAR...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DIFFLUENT NATURE OF UPR LEVEL FLOW ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND AND HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY REACH FAR WRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN KS/NRN OK... SMALL MCS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION INVOF DIFFUSE FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS IT HAS MOVED BEYOND LLJ AXIS AND LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN/REDEVELOP FARTHER W BY MIDDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS...AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT OVER REGION...LIKELY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS HEATING DESTABILIZES AIRMASS AND LLJ ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS. EWD MOTION OF RCKYS UPR LOW WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF EXISTING SRN BRANCH JET OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AOB 20 KTS. BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY /CAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL ASCENT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND OVER PARTS OF KS/NRN OK. OVERNIGHT...LLJ SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND ALLOW DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. HIGH PWS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE CLUSTER MOVES E/SE TOWARD SW MO BY 12Z THURSDAY. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 15:28:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 10:28:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508241646.j7OGk1eY025297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241644 SWODY1 SPC AC 241642 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GCK 20 W RSL 20 ENE SLN 20 NNW EMP 45 ENE CNU 35 S JLN 45 SW TUL 50 WSW END 40 NW GAG 20 ENE GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 20 N FAR 50 NE ABR 20 SSW HON 35 NNE VTN 50 SW MBG 35 W BIS 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT 30 NNW HDO 60 SSE BWD 25 W SEP 20 NNE ABI 25 NE BGS 40 NE FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 35 E U24 45 SSE EVW 45 NW RWL 25 SSE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 WSW INL 30 NNW RST 35 WSW BRL 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND SD.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK.... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER MT/SASK BORDER WILL MOVE EWD AND NEWD INTO S CENTRAL ALBERTA DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVANCES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS BUILD THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING SWD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWD ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER INTO CENTRAL WY...WHILE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGHING IS FROM THE ERN NC SHORES WWD THRU CENTRAL GA/AL/MS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAKENING MCS CLUSTERS...ONE OVER SERN KS THE OTHER OVER NWRN OK. THE SERN KS MCS HAS LEFT IMPRESSIVE BAND OF GRAVITY WAVES OVER NWRN AR AND NERN OK WHICH MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR THIS AFTERNOON. ...ND/SD... COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY EARLY TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE INTO ERN ND BY END OF THE PERIOD AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN WY. RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED ONE JET STREAK FROM W CENTRAL WY INTO CENTRAL ND WHICH IS REFLECTED AS WELL AT H70 BRINGING WELL MIXED AIR INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED NEWD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SECOND LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE TX /OK PANHANDLE AND WRN KS NWD INTO ERN ND CREATING A CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ND AREA AIDING UVVS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER N CENTRAL ND. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER CENTRAL SD INTO S CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS ND...BUT INCREASED HEATING OVER WRN SD AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH FOR A LINE OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FAVORABLE LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH NEAR 35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7.5-8.0 C/KM. ...PARTS OF KS AND NRN OK... CURRENTLY STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG FROM SERN KS SWD INTO W CENTRAL OK. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM MAINLY DUE TO CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM HAS ALSO LEAD TO SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT WEAK ROTATION/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. THUS...GIVEN PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 IN...WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 18:42:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 13:42:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508241959.j7OJxPXI001264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241956 SWODY1 SPC AC 241955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LBL 25 SSE RSL 25 E SLN 25 NNE EMP 45 ENE CNU 35 S JLN 45 WSW MKO 15 NNE FSI 60 WNW CSM 40 E LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT 35 WNW FAR 20 SE ABR 20 SW 9V9 45 SE RAP 40 SSE REJ 25 E DIK 60 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 30 WSW TRM 30 NNE RAL 25 WNW EDW 25 NNW NID 30 NW CDC 35 E U24 45 SSE EVW 45 NW RWL 25 SSE WRL 40 W COD 10 W LVM 45 NW LWT 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 WSW INL 30 NNW RST 35 WSW BRL 30 S STL 15 S CKV 40 NE CSV 50 W BLF PSK 10 SSW GSO 25 SSW RDU 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 35 SSE DRT 30 NNW HDO 60 SSE BWD 25 W SEP 20 NNE ABI 25 NE BGS 40 NE FST 70 S MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS KS AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...KS/OK... VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...APPROACHING 2IN...PERSIST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL OK INTO SRN KS. WITH INHIBITION NOW WEAKENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND OK...MLCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH WITH 3500-4000J/KG COMMON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD FOR A WHILE BEFORE A MORE EWD MOVEMENT OCCURS WITH STORM MATURATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ENHANCED BY A SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT NOTED IN LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MOVE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME...APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC...IS SPREADING NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WY INTO WRN SD. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN WITHIN THIS PLUME AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN SPREAD NEWD GIVEN STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OVER THE DAKOTAS...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE BY SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 24 23:58:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 18:58:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508250115.j7P1FqAG011840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250112 SWODY1 SPC AC 250110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DDC SLN MHK TOP 25 ESE OJC JLN 25 WNW TUL LTS 40 ENE AMA DDC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW RRT GFK 45 NE ABR 9V9 RAP Y22 10 WNW BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP SAT ACT DAL 55 N FTW SPS 40 NE FST 60 SW MRF ...CONT... 30 SW IPL TRM DAG 55 ENE NID DRA 35 NW P38 U24 45 SSE EVW LND WRL 35 S SHR REJ 40 NW Y22 70 NW MOT ...CONT... 40 NNE RRT BKX SUX CGI 15 S CKV CSV TYS HSS 30 SE CLT SOP 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SRN/SERN CONUS PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONE...CENTERED OVER MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FEATURES TWO PROMINENT CYCLONES -- FIRST OVER GULF OF MAINE AND SECOND CENTERED OVER SWRN SASK...BASED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND LATEST AVAILABLE RAOB DATA. WEAK/POSITIVELY TILTED PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...EJECTING NEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY. WEAK SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL ND THROUGH CENTRAL/SWRN SD TO ERN/CENTRAL WY -- SHOULD DRIFT EWD AND SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS PARENT SFC CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND BECOMES MORE VERTICAL STACKED WITH SASK UPPER VORTEX. LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM NEB PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS ERN CO. DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM SERN OK NWWD ACROSS NWRN OK TO SWRN KS. DIFFUSE/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM MO OZARKS WWD ACROSS SRN KS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR BOTH MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS CONTINUES FROM PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO CENTRAL KS...THOUGH RISK OVER TX PORTION MAY BE ON THE WANE. REF REMAINDER WW 742 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFORMATION. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN. SFC THETAE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH NWD EXTENT FM NRN OK INTO NRN KS...CROSSING THROUGH TWO AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MOIST LLJ WILL DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS NWRN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN KS...NEARLY DOUBLING TO AROUND 40 KT AND ENHANCING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT MAY FORM. GIVEN SEASONALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM OBSERVED AT AMA/DDC THIS EVENING...JUXTAPOSED ATOP RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PARCELS MAY BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ...NRN PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS REMAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING -- BOTH IN ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY NEWLY FORMED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL ND AND ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP IN PLUME OF UNSTABLE AIR COVERED BY OUTLOOK. LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLY STEEP OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION --I.E. 8-9 DEG C/KM IN BIS 700-500 MB LAYER...THOUGH SBCINH APPEARS TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY FOR ONLY A FEW DEG C OF SFC DIABATIC COOLING. STILL...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION INCREASES OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL -- AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS FOR SUPERCELL AND BOW MODES...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN SD NWD. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS INDICATE ELEVATED MUCAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND. ..EDWARDS.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 04:33:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2005 23:33:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508250550.j7P5obBa027926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250547 SWODY1 SPC AC 250546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP RSL HLC MCK IML 30 ENE FCL CYS 55 SSE DGW 35 NNW BFF 45 ENE AIA VTN 9V9 FAR 30 SSE TVF 35 E BJI MSP FOD DSM 25 ESE P35 30 ESE OJC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM EDW 45 WNW BIH 45 SSE U31 40 NE U24 25 SSW WRL 20 SSW GCC RAP 35 NNW MBG 55 N DVL ...CONT... 35 WSW CMX VOK 40 WNW RFD FDY HLG 35 S EKN 20 ESE CHA 25 NE ANB LGC 35 W SAV 50 E SAV ...CONT... 15 WSW BRO 30 WNW ALI AUS 30 SW SHV TXK PGO 50 SW TUL 35 S END CSM BGS 40 SSW FST 95 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING RENDERING WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN HALF OF CONUS. NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL SASK. SFC LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH CYCLONE ALOFT BY EARLY IN PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL FILLING TREND AS DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LOW DRIFTS NEWD OVER WRN/NRN MB. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM NERN ND SSWWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION INTO CENTRAL WY -- IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER NRN MN...SEWD ACROSS SD/NRN NEB...AND SWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... INTENSE SFC HEATING -- COMBINED WITH NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT -- SHOULD RESULT IN CAP BREAKAGE AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TSTMS DURING LATE AFTERNOON. GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM APPEAR OVER PORTIONS NEB INTO SIOUX-LAND REGION...WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR SHOULD REACH 4000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS...DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN MN. FROM SRN NEB EWD TOWARD MO VALLEY...LARGE BUOYANCY AND INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SHOULD OFFSET RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EVENTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...FAVORING SUPERCELLS MAINLY INVOF SFC FRONT. FARTHER W OVER SERN WY AND NEB PANHANDLE...WEAK ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT SHOULD ADVECT MOISTURE UPSLOPE OVER REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THIS REGION. THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH 30 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AFTER DARK APPEARS TO BE SERN NEB/WRN IA/NERN KS/NWRN MO REGION...WHERE POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD INTERCEPT MOIST/35-40 KT SWLY LLJ AND MOVE ESEWD TO SSEWD. STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG. ...SRN FL -- TS KATRINA... OFFSETTING FACTORS COMPEL MARGINAL/SUBCATEGORICAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM. LATEST NHC FCST SCENARIO IS FOR TS KATRINA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE ATLANTIC COAST OF S FL...DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN FL AFTER 26/00Z...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER 26/06Z AS MIDDLE/OUTER PART OF NERN QUADRANT BEGINS TO AFFECT LAND. A FEW DISCRETE/MINI SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER GULF STREAM AND MOVE ASHORE LATE. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE 00Z RAOBS -- I.E. EYW...MIA AND KINGSTON -- SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL DRYING MAY NOT BE DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT FACTOR...PLUS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONES FOR SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH...AND FCST TRACK TIMING RELATIVE TO SFC HEATING MIN OVER LAND...ALL SUGGEST RELATIVELY LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTTN22 KNHC -- FOR TRACK/ INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND VALID WATCHES/WARNINGS. ..EDWARDS/CROBSIE.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 11:45:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 06:45:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508251302.j7PD28hH011243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251259 SWODY1 SPC AC 251257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP RSL HLC 25 SSW MCK 20 SW IML 30 ENE FCL CYS 55 SSE DGW 35 NNW BFF 45 ENE AIA VTN 9V9 FAR 30 SSE TVF 35 E BJI MSP FOD DSM 25 ESE P35 30 ESE OJC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CMX 35 ESE CWA 30 SSW MKE 10 SE CGX 25 S CLE 20 SE PIT 25 S EKN 40 ENE CHA 25 WSW ATL 60 N AYS 15 ESE CHS ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 35 E COT 35 SSE TPL 30 S TYR 15 SSW TXK 25 WNW PGO 40 WSW TUL 35 S END 25 NNW LTS 55 E LBB 30 SW INK 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM 10 E EDW 35 N NID 60 SSE ELY 50 ESE DPG 40 NW RIW 25 SW GCC 35 S Y22 45 ENE BIS 75 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CNTRL STATES...WHILE SASKATCHEWAN UPR LOW...NEARLY CUTOFF FROM TRUE NRN STREAM JET FARTHER TO THE N...CONTINUES TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY ENE. SETUP WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WSW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL SPEEDS RANGING FROM NEAR 30 KTS IN KS TO ABOVE 60 KTS IN ND. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AS TRAILING COLD FRONT...ATTM EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN ND THROUGH CNTRL SD/NW NEB AND SRN WY...CONTINUES SLOWLY E INTO MN...SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEB...AND S ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS BY 12Z FRIDAY. FARTHER S...EXPANSIVE/SLOWLY-MOVING OVERNIGHT MCS IN KS/MO HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM WRN IL ACROSS SW MO/NE OK/S CNTRL AND CNTRL KS INTO S CNTRL NEB. THE WRN AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NE LATER TODAY. ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS... SURFACE HEATING...CONTINUED INFLOW OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/ OVER PARTS OF THE NEB AND KS TODAY. THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR S OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AND INVOF WRN PART OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY KS/MO MCS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SW MN/ERN SD SWD INTO NEB...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN MOIST...POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN MO INTO SRN IL/WRN KY. DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST...RANGING FROM AROUND 30 KTS IN KS TO 40 KTS IN WY AND SD...BUT AMPLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. GIVEN DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND FOCUSED NATURE OF CONVERGENCE FIELD...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS IN CNTRL/ERN NEB...AND IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HI PLNS...MAY ALSO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A ONE OR TWO TORNADOES BOTH AREAS. COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT FRONTAL UPLIFT...MOISTURE INFLOW AND EXPECTED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE CNTRL PLNS STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCSS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL NEB/N CNTRL KS E/SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AND PERHAPS FAR SW IA. WIND PROFILES AND HI PWS IN THIS REGION WILL FAVOR ECHO TRAINING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WET MICROBURSTS. ...FL PENINSULA/T.S. KATRINA... OFFSETTING FACTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL/SUB CATEGORICAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS ERN FL RELATED TO T.S. KATRINA. LATEST TPC FCST IS FOR KATRINA TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST OF S FL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN FL AFTER 26/00Z...BUT ESPECIALLY AFTER 26/06Z AS MIDDLE/OUTER PART OF NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION BEGINS TO AFFECT LAND. A FEW DISCRETE MINI SUPERCELLS MAY FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AND MOVE ONSHORE BY LATE EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. BUT WV IMAGERY AND THE LATEST /12Z/ RAOBS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL NOT OCCUR ON WRN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. COUPLED WITH AN ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES OVER THE PENINSULA FOR KATRINA TO INTERACT WITH...AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY RELATIVE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...ATTM IT APPEARS THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 15:27:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 10:27:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508251644.j7PGisR1010879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251641 SWODY1 SPC AC 251640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP HUT 35 SSW HLC 25 NE GLD 35 S SNY 20 NW SNY 20 NW AIA 45 ENE AIA VTN 9V9 25 SSW ATY 50 E ATY 25 NNW RWF 25 NNW FRM FOD 30 WSW DSM 20 SSW P35 10 SSE OJC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CMX 35 ESE CWA 30 SSW MKE 25 WNW SBN 25 S CLE 20 SE PIT 25 S EKN 50 E CHA 25 WSW ATL 75 ESE MCN 35 SSW CRE ...CONT... 10 E CZZ 35 WNW TRM 10 E EDW 35 N NID 60 SSE ELY 50 ESE DPG 40 NW RIW 10 NE GCC 35 ENE REJ 35 NNE BIS 60 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 35 E COT 30 SSE TPL 40 W TYR 25 NE PRX 30 ENE MLC 50 ENE OKC 35 WNW OKC 20 WNW LTS 50 ESE LBB 25 SSE INK 60 SSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN MID/UPPER AIR FEATURE IS THE STRONG LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SWD AND SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES. ALSO...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES WITH T.S. KATRINA EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWD/SWWD THRU CENTRAL SD INTO SRN WY. ALSO...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE ACROSS SWRN MO INTO S CENTRAL AND WRN KS. MODELS INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS FROM PARTS OF SD INTO KS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TIGHTENING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO NEAR 40 KTS AT MID LEVELS...AND 60 KT AT UPPER LEVELS. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS BAND OF 30-40 KT SWLY WINDS ACROSS WRN TX INTO SWRN KS...WHICH THE MODELS EXTEND INTO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PROMOTE ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB INTO NRN KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEB WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NERN CO. THIS CONFLICTS WITH THE MODEL FORECAST WHERE MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL KS WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING AN MCS OVERNIGHT AFFECTING CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UVVS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WHERE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL PENINSULA... SEE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY TPC ON T.S. KATRINA. SOME WEAK SHEAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LIMITING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF STRENGTHENING ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 18:46:05 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 13:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508252003.j7PK3AUm018850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252000 SWODY1 SPC AC 251959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DDC 15 ENE LAA 45 ESE FCL 40 NNE CYS 45 WSW CDR 45 NE CDR 30 NE HON 45 NE BKX 20 SSE RWF 15 S FOD 20 SSW P35 MKC 25 NW CNU 25 SW ICT 30 SSW DDC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 40 E COT 30 S TPL 30 SSE FTW 40 NW ADM 30 ENE CSM 35 W CSM 50 NNE BGS 75 NE P07 50 ESE P07 ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 30 E DAG 50 NNW P38 10 W BPI 10 NE WRL 15 N GCC 35 S REJ 45 SE BIS 75 N GFK ...CONT... 20 SE CMX 35 SE CWA 25 NNW MKE SBN 15 NW MFD HLG 20 W EKN 40 SSW PSK 15 S AVL 45 NNE ATL 30 SSE ATL 30 ESE MCN 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SW FLOW AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CO. THE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING IN SE WY AND ACROSS NE CO. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND SRN SD AND ALONG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS. LOWER TO MID 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KB IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST AS STORMS INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST FROM NW KS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND NW KS. SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE DEVELOPING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS NEB MOVING THE SYSTEM SEWD INTO NE KS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AND A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN AND CNTRL FL... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN FL COAST. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER BRINGS KATRINA INTO SRN FL TONIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SHOW THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER OF KATRINA WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 KT SUGGESTING THE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH THE TORNADO THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 08/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 25 23:59:33 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 18:59:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508260116.j7Q1GYuY007432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260114 SWODY1 SPC AC 260112 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GCK 50 SE LIC 40 WNW LBF 15 SSE AIA 55 ENE DGW 40 NW HON 40 NE ABR 50 SW BJI BRD SPW LWD OJC 25 NW CNU ICT GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MIA 20 WNW PBI 25 WNW MLB 20 NW DAB 45 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW GLS SAT 20 ESE BWD 50 ESE SPS 55 NW MLC 30 SSW PNC 15 SSE GAG 45 N AMA 25 WSW MAF 55 SSW P07 ...CONT... 30 SE YUM DRA 50 NE ELY RKS 50 NW RIW 4BQ MBG ABR 35 WNW RRT ...CONT... 10 NW IWD 40 NW LSE 15 SSW DBQ SBN DAY JKL TYS HSV BHM AUO 40 ENE ABY 50 NNE AYS 35 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL ERN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER MOST OF CONUS IS DOMINATED BY ZONALLY ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING FROM OFFSHORE SRN CA EWD ACROSS NRN TX AND SC. PRINCIPAL NRN STREAM FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE STACKED/OCCLUDED CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSES AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN SASK AND WRN MB. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN MB THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- EVIDENT AT 23Z FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL SD AND ERN WY -- WILL MOVE EWD SLOWLY OVER NRN MN AND SEWD ACROSS NRN NEB AND ERN SD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... REF WW 745 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST SHORT-TERM INFO FROM NRN NEB THRU W-CENTRAL MN. PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE FROM NEAR ATY...HON...ANW...AIA HAS BEEN PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND SEWD OFF THAT BOUNDARY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL. MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT...AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE SWD...ACROSS PREFRONTAL ARAS OF SD/NEB/KS. OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS WITH STRONG COLD POOL IS EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY DATA...SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS ERN CO. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND COOLING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW POOL TO SURGE EWD INTO MORE OF SWRN NEB AND PORTIONS WRN KS. REF SPC WW 744 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2079 FOR LATEST GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA AND DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT ONE OR TWO PRIMARY MCS TO PERSIST AND MOVE EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN KS AND SRN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN THREAT WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. NRN KS PORTION MAY BE FAVORED FOR PROPAGATION OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF PROXIMITY TO VERY MOIST/35-40 KT SWLY LLJ PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN KS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE. ...FL E COAST... REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION AS KATRINA TRACKS SLOWLY INLAND OVER S FL. MLB VWP INDICATES INCREASING LOW LEVEL SRH WITH TIME FOR TYPICAL STORM MOTIONS IN FAVORED PERIPHERAL/NERN QUADRANT -- WHICH STILL LIES OFFSHORE. LACK OF FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE MAY LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SMALL/RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED WELL OFFSHORE DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS. GREATEST SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AT NIGHT WILL BE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH THETAE AIR MASS OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND FROM GULF STREAM...BUT GIVEN DEEP/MOIST LAPSE RATES...WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...PRIND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CLUSTERED OR ORGANIZED TORNADO EVENT IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH 12Z. BECAUSE OF SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN BOTH FAVORABLE SHEAR AMD BUOYANCY WITH DISTANCE FROM ATLANTIC COAST...TORNADO PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WWD FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 26 04:36:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2005 23:36:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508260553.j7Q5rBOm031507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260551 SWODY1 SPC AC 260549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE HRO MKO GAG GCK BBW BUB SUX 45 WSW FOD DSM P35 40 NNE COU SLO PAH 25 NNE DYR 50 SE HRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 35 SW ORL MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BUF AOO SSU TCL MEI 35 ENE MOB MAI 30 NW SAV 30 N HSE ...CONT... 10 NW LRD SAT 30 N AUS 30 WNW ACT SEP 35 ENE ABI 55 WNW ABI BGS 35 NE FST 55 SSW P07 ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 NNE FHU 55 SSW GNT 30 SSW FMN 4HV PUC 45 SW VEL 55 WSW LAR 40 NNE CDR 30 WNW MHE 35 E AXN 15 NW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SRN CONUS RIDGE IS FCST TO WEAKEN ON ERN END AND BUILD ACROSS SWRN CONUS...RESULTING IN PRIMARY HIGH ALOFT BEING LOCATED ACROSS SRN CA. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL S AND SE OF NRN STREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL PORTION SK/MB BORDER. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT SHOULD LIE ACROSS NRN NEB. FARTHER NE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHIN BROAD OUTLOOK REGION. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS SPECIFIC LOCATION OF GREATEST POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS BROAD OUTLOOK AREA. SPECIFIC CONVECTIVE FOCI WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON EVOLUTION OF CURRENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND GEOMETRY/PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POCKET OF RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR -- UNDISTURBED BY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO ITS S AND E -- ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE NOT DEEPLY OVERTURNED/STABILIZED BY PRIOR MCS ACTIVITY...EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S AND STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED...BENEATH ABOUT 30-40 KT 500 MB WINDS...ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS YIELDS SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN FCST SOUNDINGS. E-W OR NW-SE ORIENTED OUTFLOWS MAY LOCALLY BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCE SHEAR/LIFT AS WELL. ONE OR TWO PRIMARY MCS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND MOVE EWD TO SEWD...WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING MAIN THREAT AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... REF LATEST NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- REGARDING FCST TRACK/INTENSITY AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ON KATRINA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL THROUGH EARLY PERIOD AS CENTER MOVES FARTHER INTO GULF...SUPPORTING INNER-BAND TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BUOYANCY MAY LIMIT COVERAGE/NUMBER OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC TSTMS. PERIPHERAL/OUTER-BAND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING DAY AS WELL. LACK OF AMBIENT/MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONES -- TO EITHER FOCUS OR RESTRICT SFC-BASED SUPERCELL OCCURRENCE -- SHIFTS LIKELY EMPHASIS TO MESOBETA SCALE PROCESSES THAT ARE YET TO DEVELOP. MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES OR POCKETS OF ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE...ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH IN ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS...AMIDST LARGE AMBIENT 0-1 KM HELICITY. ...UPPER MIDWEST... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON INVOF SFC FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTS. PRIND MIDLEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER S...IN REGIME OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF FRONT...FROM MIDAFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WEAKENS. ..EDWARDS.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 00:16:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 19:16:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508280134.j7S1YNUE015303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270546 SWODY1 SPC AC 270544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MSS 40 ESE UCA 20 NNW PHL 35 NNW RIC 35 W GSO ANB 0A8 25 NW LUL 50 SSW LUL 30 E MOB MGR FLO GSB 20 E ECG ...CONT... 15 SE FHU SAD 35 ENE SOW 85 ESE PGA 35 NE MLF 55 WSW BPI 40 SE RIW 35 NNW CYS 30 NNW MCK GRI 40 S OMA TOP 35 NE ICT 40 NE OKC 30 NNW MLC 35 WNW UNO DEC 40 NNE CGX 10 WNW MTW AUW BJI 80 N GFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SRN CA...WITH RIDGE EWD ACROSS NRN TX TO GA -- WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN ITS VICINITY THROUGH PERIOD. DOMINANT NRN STREAM FEATURE WILL REMAIN SLOW-MOVING/STACKED/OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER MB...WHICH THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT SEWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN ONT N OF LS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY EXTENDING SWD FROM THAT LOW TO LOWER MO VALLEY -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- REINFORCED ON WRN END BY OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR/ONGOING CONVECTION -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...AND SLOWLY SWD OVER RED RIVER AREA. SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER SRN PLAINS IS WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...LEAVING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB/KS. ...ERN GREAT LAKES TO SRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON OVER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM TN TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS MAY BE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS...WHERE ASSOCIATED LIFT AND STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN CAP MOST RAPIDLY. OCCASIONAL STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL UPON YET UNDEFINED MESOSCALE PROCESSES ATTM TO DEFINE CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS WITHIN THE BROAD SWATH OF MARGINAL PROBABILITIES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE RICH ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION...THOUGH CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NARROW OVER MI/OH BECAUSE OF ELY COMPONENT AND SOMEWHAT LOWER THETAE TRAJECTORIES FROM NERN CONUS RIDGING. SFC DEW POINTS 70S F FROM ARKLATEX REGION TO OH VALLEY WILL YIELD MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG DURING AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS SRN PLAINS BECAUSE OF DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS...HOWEVER...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ALSO CAN SERVE TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS ENTIRE FRONTAL CORRIDOR WILL BE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESSES IN LOW AND/OR MIDLEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE MORE SUITABLE FOR MULTICELLS AND SHORT-LIVED/SLOW-MOVING BOWS THAN EITHER SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OR PROGRESSIVE/COLD POOL DRIVEN MCS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... POCKETS OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND FRONTAL LIFT...SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS KS/NEB INVOF SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPEST MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT OF ANY AREAS WITH APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IF PRESENT OBSERVATIONAL AND PROGGED TRENDS IN MOISTURE AND DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTINUE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SMALL...BUT WITH STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND AFTERNOON MLCAPES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES. ...FL KEYS... MARGINAL/SHORT-LIVED TORNADO POSSIBILITY EXISTS DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER BANDS WELL E OF CENTER OF DEPARTING HURRICANE KATRINA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES THEN SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AS HURRICANE HEADS TOWARD CENTRAL GULF...CLOSING ANY TC-RELATED TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS S FL. REF NHC BULLETINS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC -- FOR TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION ON KATRINA. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 08/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 00:16:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 19:16:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508280136.j7S1ZnG9015689@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261954 SWODY1 SPC AC 261953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LIT 55 NW MLC 35 W CSM 20 SW GAG ICT 10 NE EMP 30 S OJC 15 WSW TBN 55 NW POF 15 NW MDH 15 E SLO 25 NE EVV 35 W BWG 25 NE MKL 10 N MEM 25 N LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 50 NNE FHU 55 SSW GNT 30 SSW FMN 50 WNW 4HV 30 SSE SLC 25 SE EVW 20 WSW CYS 30 N GLD 50 WNW CNK LNK 25 N MKT 60 ENE STC 30 NW ELO ...CONT... 25 NW BUF 25 NW MRB 20 E ROA 25 WNW HKY 20 NE RMG 15 ENE TCL 25 E MEI 45 NNE MOB 15 WNW CEW 10 S MAI 40 ENE MGR 15 NW SAV 25 N HSE ...CONT... 25 WNW DRT 65 ENE P07 50 SW SJT 25 ENE SJT BWD 35 SE SEP 40 NNW ACT FTW 50 NW MWL 50 NW ABI BGS 35 NE FST 50 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...IL/IND/KY... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS AIDED IN STRONG SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO SRN IND/WRN KY SHORTLY...ALTHOUGH AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE OR SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING SEVERE UPDRAFTS. EVEN SO...MOMENTUM OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND THREAT. ...SERN KS/SWRN MO/NERN OK... BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN KS INVOF AGITATED NW-SE ORIENTED MID LEVEL CONVECTION. WITH TIME THESE MID LEVEL UPDRAFTS SHOULD COUPLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS AND ROOT INTO AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 3000 MLCAPE. WLY HIGH LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT JUST BENEATH THE EL LAYER WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTING ALOFT FOR AN UPWARD EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO NRN AR/NERN OK LATE. UPSTREAM...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND SHIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. WITH 20-25KT MID LEVEL FLOW...MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 04:01:22 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 27 Aug 2005 23:01:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508280519.j7S5J7EA014497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280516 SWODY1 SPC AC 280515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVE 20 ENE MSY 45 NNW GPT 55 N MOB 25 WSW TOI 15 E DHN 35 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 SSW SOW 70 SE PGA 10 N U17 25 ENE CNY DEN MHN 40 NNE BUB 20 NW SUX 30 ESE OTM 15 WNW COU 35 WNW TUL 30 NE ADM 40 SW PGO 60 E FSM ARG 10 NE CKV 30 N LOZ 10 SE CRW 35 WSW MRB 30 SW IPT 30 NNW SYR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CLE DAY 10 SSW IND 15 ESE DNV 50 S CGX 20 NE BEH 30 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WNW FCA 30 NNW S80 20 E BNO 60 W BNO 45 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED POLAR BRANCH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING MID/UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTENSIFYING TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WILL SIMILARLY DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE E...INITIAL FRONTAL SURGE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVING LITTLE OVER THE TN VALLEY. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CNTRL GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NWLY WITH TIME...WITH CENTER APPROACHING THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY 29/12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE BANDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST. TROPICAL AIR MASS AND RESULTANT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF KATRINA WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE OF MINI SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...TN VALLEY... A SEPARATE REGION OF ISOLATED...DIURNAL SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HERE...COMBINATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND DIABATIC HEATING IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS DO INDICATE STRONGER WIND FIELDS ABOVE 9 KM AGL...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN RATHER WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING FROM WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... AFOREMENTIONED...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN MT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ACT ON THIS INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS REGION INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...WITH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS NRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO LOW. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN POINTS TO THE S...DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 50-60 KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 11:18:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 06:18:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508281236.j7SCaSvE003291@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281233 SWODY1 SPC AC 281232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE HUM 20 NW MSY 30 SE MCB 25 SSW LUL 50 S SEM MAI 35 SSW TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 SSW SOW 70 SE PGA 10 N U17 25 ENE CNY 25 ESE 4FC MHN 25 W YKN 35 NNE SUX 30 NW PIA 45 SSE UIN 35 WNW TUL 40 WSW MLC 35 WSW PGO 60 E FSM ARG 40 NNW HOP 15 E SDF 20 W DAY 25 ENE LAF 35 SW SBN 35 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WNW FCA 30 NNW S80 20 E BNO 60 W BNO 45 ENE DLS 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... AS CAT-5 HURRICANE KATRINA TURNS MORE NWD AND APPROACHES THE SERN LA COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...OUTER RAIN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KATRINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LARGE...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE OVER THIS SAME REGION. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... OVERALL THUNDERSTORM SETUP REMAINS SIMILAR TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AS REGION REMAINS UNDER MODEST NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE FRONTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPES GIVEN AUGUST AFTERNOON HEATING. IN ADDITION...MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DEEP NLY WINDS EVIDENT ON PROFILERS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IF WINDS CAN RESPOND TO APPROACHING SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN SHEAR MAY SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ATTM REMAIN SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL ABOUT HOW RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AND WILL OPT TO LEAVE LOW PROBABILITIES... THOUGH UPGRADE TO SLGT MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS INTO ERN NM/FAR WRN TX. FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD LIE ROUGHLY ALONG A NERN NEB INTO NERN CO LINE THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DRIER. THIS MAY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE FRONT. ...TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH... WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN IN PLACE. THOUGH OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED STRONG HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST STRONGER CELLS SHOULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS FROM WET-MICROBURSTS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 15:13:27 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 10:13:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508281631.j7SGVjev016905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281629 SWODY1 SPC AC 281627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE HUM 10 N MSY 45 ESE MCB 45 ESE LUL 40 WSW TOI 20 SE DHN 25 ENE AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INK 25 E GDP 55 NNW GDP 45 SSE 4CR 25 E 4CR 65 ENE 4CR 30 WNW CVS 15 SSE CVS 45 NNE HOB 20 NNE INK INK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CNK 50 SSW EAR 35 SSW BBW 25 NNW BBW 30 N BUB 45 NNE BUB 40 WNW OMA 35 ESE OMA 30 W LWD 25 ENE STJ 10 WNW STJ 25 WNW CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 45 NE TUS 25 ENE GBN 15 WSW PRC 10 SW INW 40 W GUP 50 SW CEZ 25 WNW CEZ 50 NNE 4BL 15 S CNY 30 S 4HV 35 NNW PGA 50 SSW BCE 10 SSW CDC 40 ENE MLF 40 ESE U24 15 W PUC 30 S VEL 15 N CAG 30 WNW FCL 20 NNW MHN 25 W YKN 35 NNE SUX 10 ENE DSM 30 SSE MLI 25 S CGX 25 ESE SBN 30 WSW FWA 25 S DNV ALN 25 ENE JEF 20 SE OJC 25 ENE CNU 15 NNE BVO 50 WSW TUL 25 SSE OKC 35 NNW MWL 10 WSW FTW 20 NE DAL PRX 45 ESE FSM 15 SW POF 35 NNE PAH 35 SSE BMG DAY 35 WSW MFD 35 SW CAK 25 SSW PKB 20 ESE CRW 20 WNW SSU 35 W SHD 40 W CXY BGM 35 SSE SLK 30 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80 25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE SE NEB AREA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE NM.... ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TONIGHT... THE OUTER NRN BANDS OF HURRICANE KATRINA ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE LA DELTA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HURRICANE PROGRESSES NWWD. GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND BREADTH OF THE WIND FIELD WITH KATRINA...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY TONIGHT FROM SE LA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ...ERN NEB AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM CENTRAL/WRN SD TOWARD CENTRAL AND ERN NEB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS E-W ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER TO A WEAK LOW IN SE NEB...AND THEN NWWD TO N CENTRAL NEB. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 F AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/LARGE MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS THIS EVENING WHILE MOVING SEWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...SE NM AREA THIS AFTERNOON... OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO S CENTRAL TX...WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE/CLOUDY AREA IN ITS WAKE ACROSS CENTRAL TX. W OF THE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS W TX AND SE NM...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 60 F. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER CENTRAL NM...AND THIS WAVE WILL REACH SE NM THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING STORMS WITH S TO SSE MOVING SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 18:43:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 13:43:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508282000.j7SK0sZ2004571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281958 SWODY1 SPC AC 281957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 30 E BTR 35 E MCB 45 NNW MOB 50 NW CEW 20 ENE CEW AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MRF 35 W MRF 50 ESE ELP 30 ESE ONM 35 NNW 4CR 40 NNE 4CR 55 NNE ROW 45 ENE ROW 10 NNE INK 15 SE FST 35 ESE MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW DMN SAD SOW 50 WNW GUP 15 WSW FMN 50 NNE 4BL 15 S CNY 50 SSW BCE 20 S CDC CDC 20 ENE U24 PUC CAG 35 W LAR 20 NE LAR 35 NE CYS 30 NNW SNY 45 ENE SNY 45 ENE MCK 10 W EAR 15 NNE BBW 35 NNW BUB SUX DSM 25 N BRL 35 NE BMI 15 W DNV 10 NNW MTO 35 SSW DEC 10 NNE COU 50 SW SZL CNU 40 NNW BVO 20 S PNC 40 SSE PNC 35 WSW TUL 10 SW TUL 25 SW HRO ARG CGI 35 ENE EVV 15 SW LUK 45 WSW UNI PKB MGW 20 SE AOO CXY 15 N PHL 15 SE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW OJC 25 E ICT 40 SW P28 35 SSW DDC 20 W DDC 25 SSW RSL 25 S CNK 45 N CNK 30 NW GRI 35 E BUB 25 W OFK 35 SW SUX 20 SW DSM OTM BRL 35 SW PIA 35 W SPI 40 SSW UIN 25 NNE SZL 35 SSW OJC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80 25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES... ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST... CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST TO TURN NWD AND APPROACH THE SERN LA/MS COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON...THE CLOSEST OUTER BANDS TO LAND EXTENDED FROM THE MARSH LANDS IN EXTREME SERN LA EWD TO SOUTH OF THE MS/AL COAST. AS KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE OUTER BANDS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INTENSITY AND LARGE EXTENT OF THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN RAIN BANDS FROM SERN LA EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. ...ERN NEB/KS/MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT... LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED IN ERN NEB BETWEEN BUB AND OMA AND MOVING SEWD. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY FEEDING THE STORMS HAS SUPPORTED HAIL UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOWS HAVE CONGEALED AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY INCREASE THE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST OF DDC NEWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX... AN MCV SE OF ABQ HAD AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING/MOVING SSEWD THROUGH THE SERN QUARTER OF NM THIS AFTERNOON...REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK SEWED INTO FAR WRN TX OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 06Z. ..IMY.. 08/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 28 23:34:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 18:34:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508290052.j7T0qYm4018911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290050 SWODY1 SPC AC 290048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW HUM 30 N MSY 20 ENE LUL 40 SW SEM 25 S TOI 10 WNW MAI 35 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 25 NE SVC 50 SSW GNT 30 NNE GUP 15 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 45 SSE 4FC 40 WNW AKO 20 ENE IML 30 WNW EAR 30 E GRI 20 S DSM 25 N BRL 35 NE BMI 15 W DNV 10 NNW MTO 35 SSW DEC COU 50 SSW SZL 40 NNE JLN 35 SW UMN 30 ESE FSM 10 NNW HOT 50 SW MEM 20 NW MDH 20 WSW BMG 45 NW LUK 20 S CMH 10 N PKB 25 NW EKN 20 NNW SHD 25 ESE CHO 35 NW ORF 35 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW S80 25 SSE BKE 60 ENE RDM 55 WNW PDT 40 S 4OM 70 NW EAT 30 SE BLI 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST... ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... INITIAL...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NE OF MSY TO NEAR MOB TO ABOUT 40 SW OF AQQ. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THIS BAND NEAR MOB. CURRENT VWPS FROM MOBILE AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES NOW APPROACHING 300-350 M2/S2. AS CENTER OF KATRINA NEARS THE SERN LA COAST OVERNIGHT...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INHERENT TORNADO THREAT WITHIN NERN QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NWD. ...SWRN TX... FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED THIS EVENING OVER REEVES AND WARD COUNTIES WITH A RECENT 69 KT GUST REPORTED AT PECOS. 00Z MAF SOUNDING IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF INFLOW AIR MASS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. MODESTLY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL W-NW WINDS SHOULD AID IN MAINTENENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SEWD THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NERN KS AND NWRN MO... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS REGION. 00Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB AND A MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. WHILE OBSERVED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY MAY SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2106. ..MEAD.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 04:17:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2005 23:17:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508290535.j7T5ZMlK032592@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290532 SWODY1 SPC AC 290531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM 15 SSW GWO 15 SSE MKL 15 WNW BNA 20 NW CSV 35 S TYS 25 NE ATL 10 SE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW JLN 25 S ICT 10 S HSI 15 S SUX 15 S FOD 20 E DSM 40 NNE SZL 20 WSW JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 10 ENE SAD 40 SSE GNT SAF 35 WSW CAO 15 SW LBL 15 NNE GAG 40 N FSI 15 SSW MWL 50 S TYR TXK 50 SE VIH 10 ESE DNV 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ISN 4BQ 25 E WRL 10 SW EVW 55 SE ELY 30 SW U31 55 ESE 4LW 60 SSW PDT 50 NW RDM 10 NNW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL BE POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...PRIOR TO MOVING NWD AND THEN NNEWD TO FAR NERN MS/NWRN AL BY 30/12Z. OTHERWISE...AMPLIFIED POLAR STREAM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN QUEBEC...AND MOBILE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FARTHER TO THE W...STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO MT AND WY. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY... A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF MODERATE/STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS ERN MS...AL AND PERHAPS INTO WRN GA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM ARE HOW SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE /I.E. WHERE MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL DEVELOP/ AND LOCATION AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR WITHIN REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE...A BROAD CORRIDOR OF LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN FORECAST. ...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM OH INTO WRN PA/NY. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS REGION WHICH MAY TEND TO SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY. NONETHELESS...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO STRONG WSWLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF QUEBEC LOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN ROCKIES... WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. SHOULD DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 10:48:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 05:48:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508291206.j7TC6TDh017461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291203 SWODY1 SPC AC 291201 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GPT 35 SW LUL 45 NNW MEI 10 ESE CBM 25 SE BHM 30 ENE TOI PFN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM 15 N MCB 15 SSE MKL 15 WNW BNA 20 NW CSV 50 WNW AND 55 N AYS 25 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 15 NW SAD 35 SSE GUP 15 E 4SL 30 NE LVS 40 ESE TCC 35 NNW CDS 30 N FSI 40 N ADM FSM 20 E VIH 55 N DNV 65 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 10 SE BIL 50 E JAC 15 ENE OGD 55 SE ELY 30 SW U31 55 ESE 4LW 45 E DLS 75 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AL...SRN/ERN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE TN VALLEY... HURRICANE KATRINA WAS MOVING ASHORE OVER FAR SERN LA AT 12Z AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MS WITH CENTER OF SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE TN-MS-AL TRI STATE BORDER REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /REFERENCE LATEST FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER INFO ON KATRINA'S TRACK AND SPECIFIC HURRICANE INFORMATION./ WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE EXPANSIVE WITH 90 KT WINDS AT 1 KM OBSERVED AT MOB YIELDING 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 1000 M2/S2. 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 WAS OBSERVED AS FAR EAST AS TLH THIS MORNING AS WELL. IN ADDITION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO REGENERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PRIMARY RAIN BANDS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL. SHOULD THESE CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE AS SYSTEM LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF TORNADOES ONCE HEATING COMMENCES GIVEN WEAKENING CINH AND LOW LCLS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS BROAD REGION OF EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG HAS REMAINED JUST OFF THE MS/AL COAST FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 80S...THIS ENHANCED SBCAPE AXIS IS SHIFTING NWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS OF 12Z. EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND AND RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES FROM THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OVER MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AL AND PART OF SRN/ERN MS AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. EVEN AFTER DARK...EXTREME SHEAR ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUSTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES FARTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 15:15:54 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 10:15:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508291633.j7TGXZtg031178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PNS 55 NE MOB 20 E MEI 20 SSE CBM 25 NNW TCL 20 WSW ANB 30 SSW CSG 10 E AQQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW GPT 30 WSW LUL 40 N TUP 40 WSW BNA 15 WSW CSV 40 NW AHN 55 NNW AYS 25 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW DUG 35 NNW SAD 55 ESE SOW 45 NW ONM 20 E 4SL 45 W RTN 15 N RTN 35 ESE RTN 25 W TCC 40 ESE PVW 30 SW FSI 50 SW TUL 40 NW POF 30 N SLO LAF 25 SSE GRR 40 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT 45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL/SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM ERN MS TO TN AND WRN GA.... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING NWD ACROSS MS...TO THE E OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEVELOPING SSEWD OVER TX. WITHIN THE PRIMARY NRN STREAM...ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE PAC NW TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THUS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS AREA. A SEPARATE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS NNEWD FROM KATRINA TO THE OH VALLEY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE WITH HURRICANE KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF STATES. ...MS/AL/GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE... HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL MS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND NE MS TONIGHT. LOCAL VWP/S NE AND E OF THE STORM CORE SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN GA. THE MORE EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS CLOSER TO THE STORM CORE ACROSS SW AL AND SRN MS...WHILE THE STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FARTHER E ACROSS ERN AL/WRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD INTO SRN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AL WHERE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE OUTER NERN BANDS. ..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 18:39:38 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 13:39:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508291957.j7TJvIqb016438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291954 SWODY1 SPC AC 291953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PFN 30 NW CEW 50 SW 0A8 25 ENE CBM 30 SSW MSL 20 ENE HSV 15 NW RMG 30 SE RMG 40 NW MCN 40 SSW MCN 25 SSE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT 35 N GPT 40 WSW MEI TUP 35 WSW BNA 35 E BNA CSV 20 W TYS 45 S TYS 40 SE AHN 65 E MCN 30 NE VLD 30 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 W CAR 35 SW EPM ...CONT... 15 W CLE 15 SE LUK 55 SE LUK 25 SE UNI DUJ 30 NNW UCA MSS ...CONT... 75 E DUG 55 SE SOW 20 ENE GNT 35 NNE 4SL 35 SW ALS 35 ESE ALS RTN 40 WNW TCC 40 SW CVS 45 NNE HOB BGS 25 WNW ABI ADM HRO 35 WNW MDH 35 SSW HUF 35 E LAF 20 E AZO 30 WNW MBS 40 ENE TVC 40 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT 45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL...WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM MS EWD INTO ERN GA AND AS FAR NORTH AS MIDDLE/ERN TN... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO CENTRAL MS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS CENTER WILL REACH AT LEAST THE SRN TN BORDER BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL..WRN GA AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. ...MS/AL/GA/MIDDLE TN/WRN FL PANHANDLE... AT MID AFTERNOON...SEVERAL N-S BANDS OF CONVECTION WERE STREAMING RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AND WRN GA. VWP/S ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW EXTREMELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 25 TO 50 KT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...MLCAPE VALUES WERE NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE EXTREME LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AL/WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD OVERNIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES NWD. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE JUST EAST AND NORTH OF KATRINA/S CENTER ACROSS ERN MS...NWRN AL...AND MIDDLE TN TONIGHT...WHERE THE MOST EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LESS TORNADO COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. ..IMY.. 08/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 29 22:59:34 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 17:59:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508300017.j7U0HEaE001814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300014 SWODY1 SPC AC 300012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S MSL 15 WSW HSV 30 WSW CHA 30 E CHA 65 ESE CHA 30 NNW AHN 40 ENE MCN 35 SE MCN 35 E ABY 15 NW MGR 20 SSW DHN 40 SSW TOI 35 SSW MGM 15 SSE 0A8 50 S MSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 65 SW SEM 40 SW TCL 15 ESE UOX 30 SSW MKL 25 NE MKL 15 S CKV 35 NNE CSV HSS 15 N SPA 30 NNW CAE 35 ESE CAE 35 ENE CHS ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 WNW JAX 25 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CLE 10 ESE LUK 55 WNW HTS 15 SW PKB 15 ENE FKL 30 NE JHW 40 NW ROC ...CONT... 85 W CAR 35 SW EPM ...CONT... 20 SW ELP 30 WNW ALM 30 SSE 4CR 40 SW CVS 45 NNE HOB 20 E BGS 50 NE ABI 20 NNW DUA 60 SE HRO 20 W MDH 35 SSW HUF 35 E LAF 20 E AZO 30 WNW MBS 30 WSW APN 45 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE HVR 30 SE LWT 45 E WEY 35 NW IDA 55 NW SUN 65 NNW BOI 35 N BKE 30 SW GEG 45 ENE EPH 35 S 4OM 25 NNE EAT 15 NE YKM 35 SE DLS 35 S RDM 65 NE MFR OTH. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF AL AND GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...CNTRL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL AL EWD INTO CNTRL GA...E OF KATRINA CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL MS/W-CNTRL AL AS OF 00Z. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MODERATE RISK AREA WITH 0-1 KM SRH 300-700 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-70 KTS. GREATEST THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 02-04Z OVER MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE THIS REGION OF STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. THEREAFTER...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION MAY TEND TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATRINA WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO FAR NERN MS OR SWRN TN BY 30/12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..MEAD.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 04:31:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 29 Aug 2005 23:31:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508300550.j7U5ogwA022684@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300546 SWODY1 SPC AC 300545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S AVL 50 S BLF 15 SSW SSU 35 NW MRB 20 ESE HGR 10 ENE DCA 35 SW RIC 30 SSW RDU 30 SSW SOP 15 NW CAE 20 SSW GSP 20 S AVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 45 SE AGS 25 E ATL 20 E HSV 55 SW BNA 10 ENE OWB 30 SW DAY 10 NNE MFD 15 W BFD 30 SSE BGM 10 WSW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB 45 W SEM 40 SW CBM 35 N GWO 35 WNW MEM 45 NNW POF 35 SSW DEC 25 SSW SBN 70 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 65 ENE STC 20 ESE RST ALO 50 NNE FNB 20 SW BIE 15 SSE GLD 30 ENE PUB 40 W COS 30 NNE RKS 35 ESE WEY 40 NNW HVR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS... ...SYNOPSIS... PER LATEST NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK FROM SW OF BNA INTO WRN PA OR WRN NY BY 31/12Z. ELSEWHERE... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH /INITIALLY FORMING OVER ERN MT/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ...CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PER NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SW OF BNA INTO CNTRL KY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND JUST TO THE W OF OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO ERN PA. ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WILL MAINTAIN BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-500 M2/S2/ FROM LOW TRACK EWD INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION AND ATLANTIC COAST...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...SUPERPOSITION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WAS THE CASE ON TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ALONG AND E OF LOW TRACK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. ...NRN PLAINS... DESPITE MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEB INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER FAR ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE W IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UP AND DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 15:22:46 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 10:22:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508301640.j7UGeOPi009751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301638 SWODY1 SPC AC 301637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE AND 45 NNW HSS 25 E JKL 20 W CRW 35 SSW EKN 30 NW MRB 10 SE MRB 50 NE CHO 35 NE DAN 30 NE CLT 35 SSE SPA 15 ENE AND. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE AYS 35 S MCN 30 N MCN 55 NNW AHN 30 NNW TYS 35 N LOZ 20 N UNI 30 SSE BFD 30 W AVP 15 SW ABE 35 SSW NHK 25 SW FAY 50 NNE AYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 55 S GLD 45 S LIC 40 NNW LAR 10 W LND 40 SE MQM 25 ESE BTM 50 W LWT 80 NW GGW ...CONT... 45 ESE 7R4 50 NW CEW 40 NW AUO 35 NE HSV 40 SW CKV 45 NNW EVV 25 NW MIE 45 NW CLE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AREA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK FROM GA TO PA.... ...APPALACHIANS AREA... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD FROM MIDDLE TN ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON AND SRN OH TONIGHT. VERY MOIST/RELATIVELY STABLE PROFILES ACCOMPANY THE WARM CORE LOW OVER MUCH OF TN/KY...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN A NARROW DRY SLOT W OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM ERN TN NEWD TOWARD SRN WV. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL PROGRESSES ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER E...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES E OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST E OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER FROM THE PIEDMONT OF SC NEWD INTO S CENTRAL VA. VISIBLE AND COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS IN A SWATH IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND THAT INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 18:45:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 13:45:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508302003.j7UK30Gk022214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302000 SWODY1 SPC AC 301958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE MCN 25 SE MCN 50 NW AHN 40 NNW TYS 30 WNW JKL 25 NNE UNI 30 SE BFD 30 W AVP 25 SW ABE 25 E NHK 35 SW ORF 15 S FAY 35 N SAV 55 W SAV 55 SE MCN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE 7R4 50 NW CEW 40 NW AUO 35 NE HSV 40 SW CKV 45 NNW EVV 25 NW MIE 45 NW CLE ...CONT... 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 55 S GLD 45 S LIC 40 NNW LAR 15 SSW LND 35 SSW MQM 25 ESE 27U 35 SSW 3DU 45 NNW HLN 40 NE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...EAST COAST/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA MOVING NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS IS CREATING STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1 KM. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 KT TO 45 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUGGESTING WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN NC AND ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL VA. AS KATRINA MOVES NNEWD OVERNIGHT...THE SUPERCELL THREAT MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE STORMS MOVING ACROSS AREAS WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY. ...DAKOTAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AS STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1250 J/KG ACROSS NRN SD AND WRN ND. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPANDS OVERNIGHT. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. ..BROYLES.. 08/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 30 23:41:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 18:41:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508310059.j7V0xKP8025696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310056 SWODY1 SPC AC 310055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW FLO 25 SSW CLT 15 NW HKY 40 ENE TRI 10 E CRW 20 SSE HLG 30 ENE DUJ IPT 25 WSW ABE 25 E NHK 35 SW ORF 35 ESE RWI 25 W OAJ 35 E FLO 30 WNW FLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 35 E ATY 20 NW OLU 40 S GLD 20 ESE COS 45 SSW DGW 45 WNW CPR 15 E COD 15 WSW BIL 15 SW LWT 20 S HVR 25 NNE HVR ...CONT... 10 ENE AQQ 35 E CEW 30 SSW TOI 25 E TOI 45 SE AHN 50 SSE TYS 15 ESE LOZ 55 WNW HTS 20 NE CMH 20 W ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF PA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING FROM NRN VA SWD INTO THE CNTRL CAROLINAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN BUOYANCY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINED QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS. EXPECT THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE E OF REMNANT KATRINA TRACK...MAINLY FROM VA INTO S-CNTRL PA. HERE...STRONGEST AMBIENT SHEAR WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F/ AND RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2123. ...NRN PLAINS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL MT PROGRESSING EWD. AT THE SURFACE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN SK SWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND THEN WWD INTO CNTRL WY. INCREASE IN LIGHTNING FROM SERN SK TO NEAR P24 IN WRN ND OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE AND WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG /PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHEN COUPLED WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2124. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 04:01:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2005 23:01:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508310518.j7V5Ipsl013259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310517 SWODY1 SPC AC 310515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF 35 SSE BWI 30 E CXY 10 SSE BGM 25 SE UCA 15 SW RUT 25 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE IWD 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE JEF UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 40 ESE MEI 10 SE LGC 15 NE CAE 25 SSE RDU 55 SSW RIC 35 NW RIC 25 NE SHD 40 NW EKN 30 ENE ZZV 40 NE CLE ...CONT... 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD GUP 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 20 W LIC 25 NNW LHX 30 SW LAA 40 NNE EHA 10 NNE DDC 20 ESE RSL 35 NNW CNK 10 W OFK 35 ENE ABR 75 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF KATRINA INITIALLY OVER NWRN PA/WRN NY WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD TODAY ACROSS NRN NY/NWRN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO ERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NWRN ONTARIO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ...CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. FARTHER TO THE S AND E...ANTICIPATED STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH THE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM ERN MD/DE NEWD ACROSS NJ/ERN PA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-350 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-55 KTS. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS. DESPITE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. ...CNTRL/ERN NM... POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 11:12:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 06:12:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508311229.j7VCTfQi028904@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311226 SWODY1 SPC AC 311225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE NEL 15 S AVP 10 SSE BGM 30 NE MSS ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 15 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 35 NE AKO 30 SW BBW 10 W OFK 10 SW ATY 25 ESE JMS 15 N BIS 35 SSE ISN 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... 45 ENE IWD 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE JEF UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 40 ESE MEI 10 SE LGC 15 NE CAE 25 SSE RDU 55 SSW RIC 35 NW RIC 25 NE SHD 40 NW EKN 30 ENE ZZV 40 NE CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO MUCH OF WRN/SRN ENGLAND... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST... OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SURFACE REMNANTS OF KATRINA NEWD INTO FAR SRN QUEBEC BY LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND AID IN PULLING RICH...TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD INTO MOST OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE ATOP 70+ SFC DEW POINTS AS 50 KT SLY LLJ SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. VWP AT ALB/KENX INDICATED 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2 AT 12Z...AND THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE COMMON FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC NNEWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR TODAY. DESPITE THE EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT LAPSE RATES...BUT MAY ACT TO CAP BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERED AFTERNOON HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS BAND OF ASCENT NOW SPREADING NEWD INTO CENTRAL PA/NY SHIFTS INTO ERN NY BY 18Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE INHIBITIVE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE /AS IS TYPICAL WITH LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENTS/. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ATTM. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS LOW CENTER LIFTS NNEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S. AND BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. DEEP ASCENT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINES...AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 15:18:12 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 10:18:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508311635.j7VGZlrK030631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311634 SWODY1 SPC AC 311632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 25 S AUG ...CONT... 10 E ACY 20 NW MSV 20 ENE UCA 30 E MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N CMX 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 40 NE VIH 25 E UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07 ...CONT... 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NNW EAR 20 ESE OFK 20 NW OTG 10 NW AXN 40 SSE TVF 50 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 35 E MEI 20 NNW AUO 35 S CAE 30 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE WAL 30 ENE BWI 20 SE ELM 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.... ...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NEWD ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. E OF THE SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-MID 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY/ERN PA/ERN VA...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PA/NY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SE NY...THOUGH RELATIVELY THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN THAT THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY NWD TOWARD QUEBEC...AND THE IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL...A BELT OF 40-50 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE NEWD MOVING HURRICANE REMNANTS... RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...SRN MN/IA/NW MO/ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN MN/IA...AND SEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD NW OK AND NW MO. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE PLAINS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 18:41:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 13:41:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200508311958.j7VJwgXY015374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311956 SWODY1 SPC AC 311955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ACY 25 W MSV 10 ENE UCA 20 ENE MSS ...CONT... 50 N BML 25 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FHU 50 NNE SAD 20 NE CEZ 30 W ASE 15 SW 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NNW EAR 20 ESE OFK 20 NW OTG 10 NW AXN 40 SSE TVF 50 W RRT ...CONT... 60 N CMX 15 ESE AUW 35 SE DBQ 40 NE VIH 25 E UMN 30 ENE OKC 20 WSW LTS 30 E PVW 55 SSW LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 20 NNW NIR 45 S CLL 25 ESE LFK 25 W HEZ 35 E MEI 20 NNW AUO 35 S CAE 30 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SBY 25 ENE CXY 10 ESE ELM 25 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN US... ...NERN STATES... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES INTO SRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF ERN NY. MLCAPE VALUES IN THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHICH WILL FUEL THE STORMS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW FROM WRN IA INTO CNTRL KS. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT A CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG MOST OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GRADUALLY EXPANDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/31/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 31 23:41:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 18:41:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200509010058.j810wt8V021687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010056 SWODY1 SPC AC 010054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE YUM 50 NNW GBN 35 ENE PHX 10 SSW SOW 15 N FMN 20 ENE GUC 20 ESE 4FC 45 E GLD 25 SE CNK 20 W LWD 35 W ALO 20 NNW RST 45 SSW DLH 35 NW ELO ...CONT... 110 NNE CMX 40 ESE AUW 25 W MMO 40 NE VIH 15 WNW SGF 25 S PNC 30 N CSM 25 SE AMA 55 SSW LBB 25 SSE MAF 40 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 10 NW NIR 55 S CLL 50 N BPT 40 NNW BTR 55 ESE MEI 35 WSW MCN 50 SE AGS 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE ISP POU 25 WSW GFL 25 NW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG WIND FIELD AHEAD OF REMNANT LOW KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS NRN AND ERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. AIR MASS WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST SHEAR WAS WARM AND VERY MOIST WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES APPARENTLY LIMITING OVERALL STRENGTH OF STORM UPDRAFTS. WIDESPREAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM UNDERGOING ABSORPTION BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CANADA SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS MA...NH...AND ME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN SHIELD. AT PRESENT...THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS LINEAR IN CHARACTER WITH AREA SRM LOOPS INDICATING ONLY WEAK SHEAR COUPLETS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY ON LEADING EDGE OR TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE LINES. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM MHT AND BGR...AS WELL AS LATEST RAOB FROM CAR...INDICATED PRONOUNCED SRH AND CLASSIC HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THEREFORE...ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD STILL PRODUCE IN A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST TONIGHT. ...IA/MO... DEEP LAYER OCCLUDED CYCLONE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA IS FCST TO MOVE GRADUALLY EAST TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND TRAILS SWD/SWWD FROM THE MIDWEST TO KS/OK. DESPITE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING OVER IA/MO...GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE APPEAR TO BE INHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING WILL FURTHER RESTRICT TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.