[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241639
SWODY1
SPC AC 241637

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW
15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20
SSW PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL
25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25
SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD VORTEX WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN ORE/NWRN CA SEWD/SWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLATEAU RESULTING IN MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
 MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TAKING SRN PORTION OF THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH AND BREAKING IT OFF EWD INTO WRN KS AS IT BECOMES PART OF THE
DOMINATING VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

...ERN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF W TX...

LATEST SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN HIGH BASED AS SURFACE
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...YET MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND
7.5C/KM.  ALSO...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING OMEGA FIELD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...THEN ANOTHER BAND WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE -18C TO -20C ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET.  MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 15Z
RUC INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES /8.5C/KM/ THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE
INK/MAF VICINITY WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 7500 FT AGL AND 25-30
DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  THUS... WOULD EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN FAVORABLE JET EXIT REGION.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT CONSIDERING THE
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

..MCCARTHY.. 04/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.