[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211636
SWODY1
SPC AC 211634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH POF
40 E HRO 25 NW TXK 15 SE DUA 50 E OKC 25 ESE PNC 25 SW EMP 15 W MHK
35 NNE CNK 15 NNW LNK 20 NE IRK 15 S UIN 15 N ALN MDH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
TPL 25 SW HDO 30 NE DRT 35 SSE SJT 25 NNW MWL 20 SSW PNC 40 NNE ICT
25 SW CNK 20 NNE BBW 55 SW YKN 45 W ALO 35 NE MLI 15 E MMO 25 SSE
LAF 40 N SDF 30 E OWB 60 SSW JBR 25 SSE ELD 30 E TPL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB
15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS
30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 15 WSW HUT 10 N HLC 30 NNE SNY 40 SSE RAP 40 NNW
PHP 20 E MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY ...CONT... 35 E
EWN 50 SE CLT 10 S AGS 30 NNE MGR 10 SE AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 WNW ORL
45 WNW PBI 30 NNE MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT 45 W GEG 40 N S80
35 SSW 27U 30 S MQM 20 NW JAC SLC 30 WSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE
SEA EAT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN NEB...ERN KS...ERN
OK...MUCH OF MO...PARTS OF WRN IL...AND NWRN AR....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL /
SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN NEB WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THIS PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION OVER N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB INTO THE MO / IA
/ IL PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY MOIST / SLY FLOW NOW EVIDENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EWD WITH TIME...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM KS / NEB
SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS / THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. 
WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD /
ACTIVE SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR INVOF SURFACE LOW / 
NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB / N CENTRAL KS IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING SWD ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO OK / TX.  DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WARM
SECTOR WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE...WITH 500 TO 1500
J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION.

WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...SUFFICIENT VEERING / DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED /
SUPERCELL STORMS.  EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE
ISOLATED...WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT / DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM
S CENTRAL NEB / ERN KS INTO PARTS OF MO...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF LOW / INVOF MO WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

OVERNIGHT...STRONGER / MORE WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH HAIL
/ ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS FLOW
VEERS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS MO AND INTO WRN IL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE.  WEAK
CONVERGENCE INVOF NEARLY STATIONARY W-E BOUNDARY ACROSS VA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH MODEST SHEAR /MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT/ AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY...A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG /
GUSTY WINDS OR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

...FL...
FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN PENINSULA...AS LOW-LEVEL ELY
FLOW SUGGESTS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG W COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED / PULSE
IN NATURE...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL
HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 04/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.