[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210111
SWODY1
SPC AC 210109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
YKN 40 NW DSM 25 S CID 20 NE BMI 10 WNW LAF 30 E MIE 15 E DAY 25 NNE
LUK 30 NNW SDF 35 ENE EVV 25 SW EVV 20 SSE PAH 25 NNW DYR 20 E ARG
40 SSW UNO 15 N HRO 20 W SGF 30 NW SGF 60 SSE OJC 40 SSW OJC 20 E
EMP 25 WSW EMP 20 ESE ICT 35 WNW PNC END 30 WSW OKC 35 SE FSI 40 SSW
SPS 55 NNW ABI 65 SSW CDS 40 ESE PVW 45 WNW CDS 50 ENE AMA LBL 30 E
LAA 30 NE PUB 15 NNE COS 20 SE DEN 20 E FCL 20 NE CYS 40 WNW BFF 25
S CDR 40 W VTN 20 SW YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DRT 70 SW SJT
35 SE BGS 20 ESE LBB 35 N PVW 60 S LBL 20 ESE EHA 10 SSE LAA 30 E
PUB 45 NNE ALS 40 ENE DRO 25 NE CEZ 20 ESE 4HV 50 SE U24 30 S DPG 45
N DPG 35 N OGD MLD 20 SSW BYI 50 NW TWF 80 NNE BOI 20 WSW DLN 40 E
DLN 25 ENE WEY 35 SW COD 20 WSW WRL 35 S SHR 45 NE SHR 20 NE 4BQ 40
S Y22 35 N PIR 20 WNW FSD 25 ESE SPW 35 N CID 20 WSW CGX 30 SE SBN
15 WNW FKL 15 E ITH 25 NW GFL LEB 15 SW PWM ...CONT... 25 ENE ILM 10
SSW FAY 25 E HKY 15 ENE HSS 25 ENE CSV 55 WSW CSV 10 NE MSL 25 SW
TUP 10 NE GLH 25 SSW MLU 10 SW ESF 10 NNW LFT 35 SE 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CNTRL
U.S. AND MIDWEST...

...NERN CO ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS...
PRONOUNCED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE CO FRONT
RANGE AND ATOP A DEEP SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING...A
LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN CO TO
THE KS/NEB BORDER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL FEED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WILL BE
LIFTED NWD ACROSS THE FRONT TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THESE FEATURES. MOIST NELY AND UPSLOPE FLOW ON AND NORTH
OF THE SFC FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING SPREADS EAST AND BEGINS TO
TAP STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AS TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN
ORGANIZED MCS WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO
EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT/LOW LATER TONIGHT.

...TX/OK/KS DRYLINE...
SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH LIFTED NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LARGER SCALE INTERMOUNTAIN CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED STRONG
TO SEVERE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING.
COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO WRN OK WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF BOWING AND WAS
ORIENTED NORMAL TO 35KT MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEP SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION...AND AIR MASS
EAST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHILE STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WAS ALSO
STRONGLY CAPPED BASED ON EVENING RAOBS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA OF
SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY APPROACHING...OR HAS
REACHED...ITS PEAK. A FEW MORE LARGE HAIL EVENTS...AND/OR A DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH THE BOW ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE A
GENERAL DECLINE IN SEVERE THREAT ENSUES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

...WRN MO TO NERN KS/SERN NEB...
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN MO
ATTM EXTENDS NWWD TO THE MKC AREA...THEN INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE
NEAR THE MO RIVER IN SERN NEB/SWRN IA. AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INTENSIFIES
OVERNIGHT...AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS EAST WITH THE
LEE-SIDE LOW LATE TONIGHT...TSTMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE AREA WILL FUEL INTENSE STORMS
IN A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A THREAT WITH A DEVELOPING MCS INTO
EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY.

...MIDWEST...
ISOLATED TSTM CELL HAS CROSSED THE MS RIVER FROM IA INTO WRN IL THIS
EVENING WHILE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHEAR... INSTABILITY...AND
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WAS LIMITED. HOWEVER...MOIST AIRMASS
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT OVER IL WAS SITUATED BENEATH MODEST LAPSE
RATE PLUME. MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION
ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN IL COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN.. 04/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.