[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041225
SWODY1
SPC AC 041224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON APR 04 2005

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE CMX 15 ENE
RHI 15 SSE MSP 10 ENE OTG 25 N OFK 25 NW GRI 30 NNW DDC 35 N AMA 15
SE TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 40 E BIH 30 SW NFL 75 SE 4LW 60 N BOI 35
N HVR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL CA SHOULD MOVE E/ESE ACROSS
THE SRN GRT BASIN TODAY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...
WITH RESULTING CLOSED LOW REACHING NE NM/SE CO BY 12Z TUESDAY AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE OH/TN VLYS.  ASSOCIATED LEE
CYCLONE NOW OVER SRN SD SHOULD REDEVELOP SWD INTO WRN KS TONIGHT/
EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE PLNS AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT REACHES THE SRN HI PLNS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE GRT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AS EXIT REGION OF
80+ KT SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD.
 COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NV/FAR NRN
AZ NEWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE ROCKIES.

FARTHER E...STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ SPREADING E/NE ACROSS
THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL KEEP MOST OF THAT REGION FREE OF DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS ALREADY PRESENT ATTM OVER ND...ALONG THE FAR NERN
FRINGE OF THE EML.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD
INTO NRN MN AND THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLNS.  SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER.  BUT GIVEN LIMITED DEGREE OF
MOISTURE IN UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR...ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE MINIMAL.  POST FRONTAL THUNDER MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...WHERE VERY STRONG ASCENT WILL OCCUR
ABOVE SHALLOW COOL AIR SURGE JUST E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.