[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010046
SWODY1
SPC AC 010044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
GPT 20 ENE BTR 35 NW LFT 15 S POE 35 E LFK 15 N GGG 15 ESE TXK 40 S
PBF 20 S UOX 20 NE CBM 10 S 0A8 45 WSW SEM 35 ESE LUL 35 NNW GPT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
GLS 10 WNW HOU 60 NNE VCT AUS TPL 50 SSE DAL 20 WSW PRX 35 ENE PRX
PBF 40 ESE MEM 35 NNE HSV RMG ATL 40 SSE CSG 25 NE MAI 20 N PFN 25
WNW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 10 NNW ALI
COT HDO SEP SPS LTS CSM END TUL FSM LIT MKL HSS 25 S PSK RIC 10 ESE
ORF ...CONT... 25 N PBI 60 NE EYW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML GON ACY 20
SE BWI HGR 10 S LBE FKL 25 NW JHW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF E
TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...CNTRL MS AND PARTS CNTRL AL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES....

...GULF STATES...
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO CENTRAL/
EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AT EARLY EVENING.  BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...BUT NORTHWARD RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI
IS UNDERWAY...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS SUPPORTED NEWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND AHEAD
OF DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS FROM FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  STRONGER MID/UPPER
FORCING IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.  THIS
LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIMULTANEOUS EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM THE VICINITY
OF LUFKIN TEXAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.  OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI...FED BY MOISTURE EMANATING FROM AIR MASS WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS.

MODELS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/
SHEAR PROFILES ARE INITIALLY WEAK...SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 01/06Z.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER.  TORNADO THREAT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP...BUT
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SURFACE-DESTABILIZATION COINCIDES WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...
NEAR/NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO THE JACKSON MS AREA.

..KERR.. 04/01/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.