From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 00:49:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 19:49:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504010048.j310msw2018943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010046 SWODY1 SPC AC 010044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GPT 20 ENE BTR 35 NW LFT 15 S POE 35 E LFK 15 N GGG 15 ESE TXK 40 S PBF 20 S UOX 20 NE CBM 10 S 0A8 45 WSW SEM 35 ESE LUL 35 NNW GPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE GLS 10 WNW HOU 60 NNE VCT AUS TPL 50 SSE DAL 20 WSW PRX 35 ENE PRX PBF 40 ESE MEM 35 NNE HSV RMG ATL 40 SSE CSG 25 NE MAI 20 N PFN 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 10 NNW ALI COT HDO SEP SPS LTS CSM END TUL FSM LIT MKL HSS 25 S PSK RIC 10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 25 N PBI 60 NE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML GON ACY 20 SE BWI HGR 10 S LBE FKL 25 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF E TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...CNTRL MS AND PARTS CNTRL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES.... ...GULF STATES... CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT EARLY EVENING. BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT NORTHWARD RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI IS UNDERWAY...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS SUPPORTED NEWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS FROM FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIMULTANEOUS EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN TEXAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...FED BY MOISTURE EMANATING FROM AIR MASS WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/ SHEAR PROFILES ARE INITIALLY WEAK...SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 01/06Z. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP...BUT POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SURFACE-DESTABILIZATION COINCIDES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW... NEAR/NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO THE JACKSON MS AREA. ..KERR.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 05:53:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 00:53:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504010552.j315q9xA024234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010550 SWODY1 SPC AC 010549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW TYS 30 W HKY 40 WNW GSO 45 NNW RWI 25 SE RWI 35 WNW ILM 55 SSW AGS 40 ENE ANB 15 W CHA 40 SW TYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH HEZ UOX 30 WNW CSV 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 SW DCA 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 ENE PBI 55 ESE FMY 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 10 NNE HEZ 40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...FROM PARTS OF NRN GA INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTH....ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL COME IN PHASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS CONTINUES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEAN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING CYCLONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONCERNS MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. SURFACE HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...A MOIST...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND...GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS ELEVATED. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUS FOR MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM FRONT EAST OF SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...BUT PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT MAY FOCUS SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTH/EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS MORE EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED...INHIBITION IN SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN BELOW 1000 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE. BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR EVOLVING LINE COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 06:30:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 01:30:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504010629.j316TncF015059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010627 SWODY1 SPC AC 010626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW TYS 30 W HKY 40 WNW GSO 45 NNW RWI 25 SE RWI 35 WNW ILM 55 SSW AGS 40 ENE ANB 15 W CHA 40 SW TYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH HEZ UOX 30 WNW CSV 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 SW DCA 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 ENE PBI 55 ESE FMY 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 10 NNE HEZ 40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...FROM PARTS OF NRN GA INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTH....ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL COME IN PHASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS CONTINUES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEAN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING CYCLONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONCERNS MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. SURFACE HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...A MOIST...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND...GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS ELEVATED. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUS FOR MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM FRONT EAST OF SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...BUT PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT MAY FOCUS SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTH/EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS MORE EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED...INHIBITION IN SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN BELOW 1000 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE. BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR EVOLVING LINE COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 13:05:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 08:05:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504011304.j31D4NSX017633@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 NE MCB 25 ENE MEI 35 SW BNA 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 NNE CHO 10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 40 N MLB 25 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 50 WNW JAN 40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... OK CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PHASE WITH STRONG UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING S THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PHASED DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY AMPLIFY AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WAVE NOW OVER SRN MS WILL UNDERGO ONLY GRADUAL DEEPENING TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD... HOWEVER...STRENGTHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS IT REDEVELOPS NNE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. A SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO FORM AT THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE NC/VA EARLY SATURDAY. ...ERN GULF CST TO S ATLANTIC CST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WNW/ESE OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FOCUS OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION STORMS/CLOUDS WILL RETARD NWD ADVANCE OF BNDRY AND LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...SLIGHT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM PHASING UPPER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY WEAK. BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF...WHERE AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT STRONG CELLS ON SRN AND WRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX MCS NOW OVER SRN MS/AL AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES E INTO GA/NW FL LATER TODAY...AND INTO CSTL SC THIS EVENING. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS LATE THIS AFTN/ERY TNGT... A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NRN AL/NW GA AND PARTS OF MIDDLE/E TN LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. THIS REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME SURFACE HEATING AS NEWD MOVEMENT DEVELOPING DRY SLOT CLEARS AWAY UPPER CLOUDS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING JET STREAK APPROACHES AREA. IF STORMS DO FORM...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO AS MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 80 KTS. BACKING OF UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING LINEAR FORCING SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO NE/SW OR NNE/SSW BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT SPREADS E INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER NE GA/WRN SC TONIGHT. ...CSTL SC/NC INTO CNTRL NC/VA EARLY SATURDAY... AN AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/ WILL BE REGION EXTENDING FROM CSTL SC NWD INTO CNTRL NC AND S CNTRL VA...AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC /WHERE AVERAGE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/STORMS AS DEEP SSWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS. LONG... SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND MODERATE MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 16:20:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 11:20:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504011618.j31GIxpn007002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011614 SWODY1 SPC AC 011612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GPT 20 NE LUL 15 SSE TUP 50 N MSL 20 SSW JKL 45 NNW SSU 45 NNE CHO 10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 50 WNW JAN 15 N GLH 10 SSE PBF 40 NNE LIT 30 E UNO 25 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...OVERVIEW OF DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST COMPLEX THIS MORNING DUE TO MCS AND ITS AFFECTS NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE FL PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF AL AND CENTRAL/NRN GA. OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER SYSTEM AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NNEWD ACROSS NRN AL TODAY AND UP THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE MOVE STEADILY EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND INTO NRN FL/ERN SC/CENTRAL NC BY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASE IN SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT AT H85/ PRECEEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ALLOW SOME RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO OCCUR WITHIN WARM SECTOR INTO AL/GA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...HOW MUCH RECOVERY REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AND REMAINS PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM. REGARDLESS...THREE REGIMES OF POTENTIAL SEVERE REMAIN EVIDENT: 1) AHEAD OF PERSISTENT MCS INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA...2) AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO FAR ERN MS/AL/NRN AND WRN GA/SERN TN...AND 3) AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE SERN U.S. COASTAL SECTIONS. ...NRN FL AND THE PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/FAR SRN SC... MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MCS NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTH OF CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING CENTRAL GA. RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY ENHANCE AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...MODIFIED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SHOULD DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF BOTH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS MCS SHIFTS GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY. WW LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...FEED OF SWLY SURFACE FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT RECOVERY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO NRN AND CENTRAL FL. ...AL/WRN AND NRN GA INTO THE APPALACHIANS... SEVERE THREAT MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THIS REGION AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...MOST FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FOR SEVERE WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN LOW 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL/NRN AL YIELDING 1000 J/KG MLCAPE USING A 70F/64F SURFACE PARCEL. WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUSTAIN SOME CINH AND SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AWAIT PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. THUS...STORMS MAY BECOME LINEAR RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THEY FORM. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT NEWD ALONG PATH OF SURFACE LOW...AND ESEWD WITH POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...CAROLINAS... THOUGH SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION TONIGHT... SHEAR VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. IF TEMPERATURES CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT... CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAY ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 20:14:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 15:14:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504012013.j31KDJMd030498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012010 SWODY1 SPC AC 012008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 10 SW GPT 30 ESE JAN 15 SSE TUP BNA 55 NNW CSV LOZ 15 N TRI 35 N HKY 40 ENE HKY GSO 40 SE LYH RIC 10 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB EYW ...CONT... 50 SE HUM JAN UOX JBR SLO PIA JVL 40 NE MKE AZO FWA MIE CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS BETWEEN ERN MS...CENTRAL FL AND SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OZARKS AND OVER UPPER MS VALLEY -- ARE FCST TO PHASE INTO ONE DISCRETE CYCLONE ALOFT TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW WILL SHIFT ESEWD FROM IL ACROSS KY AND ADJACENT OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED AL/TN BORDER -- SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG WRN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED EXTREME ERN MS SSWWD ACROSS SERN LA -- WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH TONIGHT...SWEEPING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS AL...GA...WRN CAROLINAS AND MUCH OF FL. ...NRN FL...EXTREME SRN GA... ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER NRN FL...WHILE TRAILING ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE FL COASTAL BEND REGION AND NRN PENINSULA SUBSEQUENTLY. DAMAGING WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. REF SPC WW 121 AND SUCCEEDING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS THIS AREA. SRN END OF CONVECTIVE BAND DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION MAY AFFECT THIS AREA AFTER DARK. ...MS/AL/TN/GA... NARROW LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD FROM ERN MS ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN AL...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWD BACKBUILDING AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM DIABATICALLY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES MASS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. REF WW 122 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR NEAR TERM SCENARIO. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING NWD/NWWD FROM REGION AFFECTED BY FL PANHANDLE MCS. ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS IT GETS INTO ERN AL/GA WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED AIR MASS NOW IN SRN GA/NRN FL......HENCE RELATIVE MIN IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH OF GA. ...GA/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...LATE TONIGHT... EXPECT LLJ TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT AFTER DARK AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF TSTMS -- EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF LINE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY NOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS. HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF CONSOLIDATED MS VALLEY UPPER CYCLONE...RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF AMBIENT WIND PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...DEPTH OF CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THIS REGION. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY DAY 2 TOWARD TIDEWATER AREA...REF SPC DAY-2 OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 00:39:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 19:39:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504020038.j320cNCR021664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020035 SWODY1 SPC AC 020034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 50 NNW PNS 10 E SEM GAD CHA TYS TRI ROA CHO 40 ESE CHO 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB EYW ...CONT... 50 SE HUM GPT 0A8 HSV 40 ESE BWG LUK MFD 45 W ERI BUF BGM MSV 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. IN THE SOUTHERNMOST STREAM...IMPULSE HAS MAINTAINED POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...COLD NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL MERGER/PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS APPEARS LIKELY. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATER TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN WARM SECTOR WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A HEIGHTENED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES STILL PERSIST...PRIMARILY DUE TO APPARENT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EXTENDING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING HAS MINIMIZED HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY MILD...IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...AND LITTLE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...AS AMPLIFICATION OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PROCEEDS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT... MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY FINALLY OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR... CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION. INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 02/03-06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS WITH STRONGER FORCING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN 40 TO 50+ KT MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT BETTER TORNADO THREAT LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO ANY CELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF LINE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH HEIGHT. ..KERR.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 05:49:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 00:49:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504020548.j325m9tH021957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020546 SWODY1 SPC AC 020544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CHS SOP DAN 30 E CHO DCA 35 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CTY 20 NNW JAX 40 SW SAV 45 SSE AGS 40 N AGS 15 W GSP 10 ENE HSS 10 WSW BLF CRW UNI CMH MFD CLE ...CONT... MSS GFL PVD ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... EVOLUTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS UNDERWAY JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TODAY...AS DRYING IN WAKE OF EASTERN SYSTEM PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. ...SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS FROM AREAS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH HAS PROGRESSED AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND HAS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE CYCLONE. LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH BASE OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MODELS SUGGEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN 02/12-18Z FOR EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM THE MYRTLE BEACH SC/RALEIGH N.C. AREAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...BETTER MOISTURE MAY FINALLY ADVECT INLAND OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. STRONG FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BEFORE LINE PROGRESSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS MID-LEVEL COLD CORE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE...DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... COLD FRONT MAY ONLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL PENINSULA AREAS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME FOCUSED OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 12:47:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 07:47:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504021245.j32CjrMv027474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021243 SWODY1 SPC AC 021241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 25 S RDU 25 SSE LYH 30 SE HGR 20 SSW ABE 10 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 50 ESE VLD 45 NE AYS 45 SSE AGS 40 SSE AND 30 SSW AVL 10 N HSS 30 NNE JKL 35 SSW CMH 35 NNW CMH 35 NNW MFD ...CONT... MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 20 NNE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION/SRN NJ... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER N CNTRL KY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG AN ARCING PATH ACROSS WRN NC AND REACHES SE PA BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRIPLE POINT LOW NOW DEVELOPING IN SW VA SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY NNE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NC/SRN DELMARVA CST. ...ERN CAROLINAS TO SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW OCCURRING OVER VA/MD AND PA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL NWD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD...DE ...NJ AND SE PA. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW OVER WRN NC AND SW VA LIFTS NEWD. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 100 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ON ERN SIDE OF UPPER LOW...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH AVERAGE SBCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG. RECENT INCREASE IN CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING OVER N CNTRL NC/WRN VA IS PROBABLY START OF WHAT WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MAINLY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE EPISODES ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG AXIS OF PREFRONTAL VEERING INTO ERN NC/SE VA...WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING MAY BOOST CAPE TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN STRENGTH OF S TO SSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AOA 60 KTS/ AND INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BANDS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN SRN/ERN VA. WHILE THE RISK IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD END BY 18-19Z...DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER SYSTEM AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD ALLOW SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR ERN VA...ERN MD...DE...SRN NJ AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE PA. POST FRONTAL THUNDER MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT OVER PA/NJ. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK BUT 50+ KT WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF COLD FRONT. LIMITED DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 16:32:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 11:32:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504021631.j32GVorL006648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021629 SWODY1 SPC AC 021627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 40 SSW ECG 25 NW RIC 40 S MRB 30 ENE HGR 10 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY VRB ...CONT... 25 ENE ILM 35 SE FAY 10 NW FLO 30 N CAE 30 ENE SPA 40 WSW GSO 20 NW DAN 35 NNW LYH 15 W EKN 30 W MGW HLG 20 WSW ERI ...CONT... MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 25 NE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA... ...DELMARVA... NARROW LINE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WEAK ORGANIZATION AS IT LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN VA THIS MORNING. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POCKETS OF WARMING /I.E. SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S F/ MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL UNTIL LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO COOLER AIR NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE ARE HOLDING IN THE 50S INVOF SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR ERN WV PANHANDLE/NWRN VA AT 16Z. AS LOW CENTER TRACKS NEWD NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT... HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST. ...ERN NC... REFERENCE SWOMCD 485 FOR MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION. NARROW WINDOW OF SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE OUTERBANKS AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. ...SRN FL... LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN FL THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...12Z SOUNDING AT MFL INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700 MB. THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...DESPITE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MAINTAIN ATTENDANT LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 19:59:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 14:59:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504021957.j32Jvv6S017393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021955 SWODY1 SPC AC 021954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE EWN 25 SE RWI 55 N RWI 40 NNE CHO 25 WNW DCA 15 WNW NHK 25 NE ECG 40 SE ECG 35 NE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 15 NNW ILM 25 N FLO 45 SE CLT 30 SSW GSO 20 S SHD 30 NW MRB 40 ENE BFD 25 WSW SYR 50 NE UCA 30 NW RUT 20 NNE LEB PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 25 S PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN NC AND DELMARVA... ...DELMARVA AND NERN NC... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR WRN VA AND CURRENT NEWD MOTION WOULD PLACE THE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL VA BY 00Z. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE THE CONVECTION FROM MD/NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN PA HAS WEAKENED DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN VA/NC... ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ILM-DCA LINE... AS WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO WLY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EAST OF THIS LINE AND SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND NERN NC. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL END BY 01Z/02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT LEFT FOR THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NW HAS ENDED ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..IMY.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 3 00:51:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 19:51:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504030050.j330oJEp005714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030047 SWODY1 SPC AC 030046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ORF 25 SSW RIC 30 SSE CHO 40 SW MRB 35 NW MRB 25 WSW PSB 30 SE BFD 35 WNW ELM 25 WSW SYR 50 NE UCA 30 NW RUT 20 NNE LEB PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DELMARVA... DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SERN PA THIS EVENING WILL UNDERGO FURTHER OCCLUSION OVERNIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS GENERALLY NWD INTO S-CNTRL NY...IN CONCERT WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL APPEAR TO BE SUSTAINING A SMALL ARC OF TSTMS FROM NRN VA/CNTRL MD SEWD ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...AND SOME THREAT MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ..MEAD.. 04/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 00:53:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Apr 2005 19:53:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504040051.j340pqHM007429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040050 SWODY1 SPC AC 040048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 30 WNW AXN 40 NNW ATY 10 ESE MBG 35 NE 4BQ 30 N SHR 15 SSE COD 45 NNW EVW 55 WSW OGD 30 WSW ELY 35 ENE FAT 15 SSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS... THROUGH 04/12Z...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN 04/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVERNIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE ID PNHDL INTO WRN MT. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT... ADDITIONAL...MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASING POSSIBLE FROM ERN MT ACROSS ND WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. ..MEAD.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 12:28:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 07:28:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504041227.j34CRhEp017143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041225 SWODY1 SPC AC 041224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE CMX 15 ENE RHI 15 SSE MSP 10 ENE OTG 25 N OFK 25 NW GRI 30 NNW DDC 35 N AMA 15 SE TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 40 E BIH 30 SW NFL 75 SE 4LW 60 N BOI 35 N HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL CA SHOULD MOVE E/ESE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN TODAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY... WITH RESULTING CLOSED LOW REACHING NE NM/SE CO BY 12Z TUESDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE OH/TN VLYS. ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER SRN SD SHOULD REDEVELOP SWD INTO WRN KS TONIGHT/ EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT REACHES THE SRN HI PLNS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GRT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AS EXIT REGION OF 80+ KT SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NV/FAR NRN AZ NEWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE ROCKIES. FARTHER E...STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ SPREADING E/NE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL KEEP MOST OF THAT REGION FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY PRESENT ATTM OVER ND...ALONG THE FAR NERN FRINGE OF THE EML. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD INTO NRN MN AND THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLNS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER. BUT GIVEN LIMITED DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR...ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MINIMAL. POST FRONTAL THUNDER MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...WHERE VERY STRONG ASCENT WILL OCCUR ABOVE SHALLOW COOL AIR SURGE JUST E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 16:39:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 11:39:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504041638.j34GcTu6018735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE CMX 10 ENE RHI 15 ENE STC 45 ENE ATY 35 WSW BKX 25 NW GRI 30 NE GCK 10 ESE EHA 30 WSW TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 55 ESE TPH U31 50 N WMC 60 N BOI 35 N HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EWD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY. DYNAMIC/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO TONIGHT. SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER...WITH HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS. ON PERIPHERY OF ERN GULF/FL HIGH PRESSURE...GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS ENCROACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AT MIDDAY. IN SPITE OF NOT DEVELOPING PRECIP...12Z NAM APPEARS TO ERRONEOUSLY ERODE MID LEVEL CAP /WITH CORRESPONDING NEGLIGIBLE CINH/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL TX DUE TO BMJ ADJUSTMENT SCHEME. ACCORDINGLY 15Z RUC/09Z NAMKF DEPICT A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...THUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ..GUYER/HART.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 19:41:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 14:41:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504041939.j34JdotU001550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041936 SWODY1 SPC AC 041934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT 35 SE IWD 55 SSE DLH 30 NE BRD 10 NE BJI 20 W RRT ...CONT... 75 NW ISN 40 E DIK 45 N 9V9 45 SSW EAR 35 N GCK 35 ENE CAO 45 ESE LVS 50 NW ONM 30 NE SOW 15 N IGM 40 ESE TPH 70 WNW OWY 45 S MSO 40 NNW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST/ROCKIES... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS/ROCKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED ASCENT AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATER IN THE EVENING. ...UPPER MS VLY... HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY AREAS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHING THE WARM FRONT FORMING NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER DARK...LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AND IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY. RESULTANT LIFT AND CONTINUED FEED OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES INTO THIS REGION COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE U.P. OF MI THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY... INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 04:53:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 23:53:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504070451.j374pxvg003354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070450 SWODY1 SPC AC 070448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 70 SE MEI 35 SSW TCL 45 N TCL 15 SSE HSV 25 NW RMG 25 WNW AHN 25 SE AND 40 SSE SPA 40 SE CLT 20 N SOP 20 WSW RWI 35 E GSB 35 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 35 SSW BPI 10 NNW BCE 50 WSW SGU 45 SSW MER 25 SW SJC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 25 ENE ESF 20 SE PGO 25 NNW FSM 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW IND 30 W EEN 25 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SERN U.S... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NWRN AZ WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ESEWD AND INTO GA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER...AND WILL MOVE FROM NEAR MEMPHIS BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO NRN GA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER. A 40-45 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTING FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND GA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD TO ERN NC BY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TRANSPORT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AL...GA AND PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR NWD DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING MCS CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF GA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SRN END OF AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS FROM PARTS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST. MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-DAY. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NRN FL INTO GA...AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG SRN END OF MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN DRY SLOT REGION IN WAKE OF THE MCS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL AND GA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AS STORMS REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ...MIDDLE TN AND KY... OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND KY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 12:57:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 07:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504071256.j37CuSc6031282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071254 SWODY1 SPC AC 071252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 25 SSE BHM 45 NE MSL 50 N CSV 30 ENE TYS 15 NNE AND 40 SSE SPA 35 WSW SOP RDU 45 N EWN 20 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 35 SSW BPI 10 NNW BCE 50 WSW SGU 45 SSW MER 25 SW SJC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 25 ENE ESF 30 S PGO 15 NE MKO 10 NE JLN 15 SW JHW 15 W GFL 25 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NOW NEAR MEM SHOULD CONTINUE SLIGHTLY S OF E THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING N GA BY 12Z FRIDAY. MID/UPR LEVEL SPEED MAX IN SWRN QUADRANT OF LOW...NOW CROSSING THE UPPER TX GULF CST...SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF LATER TODAY AND REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/WRN ATLANTIC TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...SC/GA/FL... EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN SC SSW INTO THE NERN GULF...AN AMALGAM OF STORMS FROM THE LAST TWO DAYS...WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SC/GA AND N FL LATER TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH TN VLY LOW SPREAD EWD. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP SHEAR PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IS NOT PURELY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD BE PRESENT TO BOOST AVERAGE MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. THUS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS. A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES AS DECIDED SLY COMPONENT TO NEAR-SURFACE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET. SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL FL LATER TODAY...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SOMEWHAT GREATER. COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...THIS MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SRN END OF SQUALL LINE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM W OF TPA. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. FAIRLY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS /40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR AND UP TO 200 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN AL INTO GA... MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT OF UPPER LOW IN WAKE OF SC/GA/N FL SQUALL LINE. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED RELATIVE TO POINTS S AND E...AMPLE /30 TO 40 KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/ POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE MID LEVEL RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE IN SHORT BANDS INVOF WEAK COLD FRONT/EWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW. ...MIDDLE TN AND KY... OTHER MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER N OVER MIDDLE TN AND KY...N OF UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 15:49:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 10:49:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504071548.j37FmBVN023239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071543 SWODY1 SPC AC 071541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 35 SSW HSV 40 S CKV 15 SSE BWG 10 SSW LOZ 15 NNE AND 20 N CAE 25 WNW SOP RDU 45 W ECG 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN 20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 25 NNE DRA 55 NNW NID 15 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PNS 55 NNW CEW 35 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND 25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL... SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN TWO REGIMES TODAY...FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWWD TO OFF THE NW FL COAST. SECOND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECEED STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANY PRIMARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE SERN COASTLINE TONIGHT. ...ERN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS... THOUGH NRN END OF CURRENT SQUALL LINE HAS WEAKENED AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING LINE INTO SERN SC/SERN GA THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION... LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES. THIS MAY OFFSET MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/MLCAPES AND SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS LINE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ...FL... SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE PREVALENT WITH TRAILING PORTION OF SQUALL LINE AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AND WILL AID DESTABILIZATION AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE COMPONENT OF NEWD STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO ESEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS MAY KEEP MANY OF THE STORMS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND INHIBIT WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OR TURN RIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO MOVE INTO WARM SECTOR...THEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AS SURFACE T-TD SPREADS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS COLD FRONT SURGES SSEWD LATER TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF FL OVERNIGHT. STRENGTH OF SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ...ERN AL/WRN GA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN AL AND WRN GA. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MESO-SCALE ANALYSES SUPPORT THIS WITH CLEARING AND LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING IN PLACE. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN AND POSSIBLY SERN KY UNDER VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN AL/GA AND POSSIBLY THE FL PANHANDLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 19:50:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 14:50:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504071949.j37JnWpS002539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071943 SWODY1 SPC AC 071941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABY 40 SSW CSG 20 WNW AUO 30 ESE HSV 35 SW BNA 30 E CKV 50 E BWG 30 SSE LOZ 20 W GSP 10 WSW AGS 65 ESE MCN 60 NW AYS ABY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRE 35 NE FLO SOP 10 SSW RDU 50 ENE RWI 25 E ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 30 SSE VRB 40 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN 20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 45 W DRA 30 ESE FAT 15 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PNS 60 N PNS 25 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND 25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC... ...FL... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN FL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN NRN FL AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOWS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LINE ORGANIZED AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EVENING. ...ERN NC... A THIN LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS ERN NC SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FAST MOVING BOW SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LINE MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN MS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. AN INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA EXTENDING NWWD INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE SBCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 01:11:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 20:11:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504080110.j381AhHV009259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080108 SWODY1 SPC AC 080106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SRQ 10 NW AGR 30 N MLB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SPA AGS 70 ESE MCN 35 ENE ABY 35 SE CSG 25 ESE LGC 15 W AHN 30 NW AND 10 WNW GSP 30 SSE SPA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 45 E HLN 30 S JAC 10 E SLC 30 WNW MLF 60 S TPH 30 NNW FAT 15 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 15 N MAI 15 ENE MGM 20 NNE MEI 15 NE GWO 20 WNW MEM 20 NNW DYR 45 WSW OWB 20 SE BMG 20 E DAY 40 WSW MGW 40 NNE HGR 35 NNE AVP 20 NNE POU 15 ENE BDR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF GA INTO WRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL... ...GA THROUGH WRN SC... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NW AL/SW MIDDLE TN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH ONE SUCH MAXIMUM NOW MOVING THROUGH AL/GA. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM AL...GA INTO TN. THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTEND FROM CNTRL GA INTO EXTREME WRN SC WHERE A RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS UNDERNEATH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...SRN FL... A SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF FL AND EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF MELBOURNE SWWD TO NEAR FORT MYERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MIAMI SHOWS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE LINE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LINE CONTINUES SWD OVERNIGHT. ...NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA... ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAX ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NRN FL/SRN GA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA WHERE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS AND SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS. ..DIAL.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 04:43:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 23:43:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504080442.j384gaB4020905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080438 SWODY1 SPC AC 080436 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 20 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AST 55 NE SUN 50 W COD 20 SW GDV 40 SE P24 30 NE PIR 40 E MCK 30 NNW LBL 15 SW RTN 70 ESE PGA 15 NW P38 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 20 WNW DHN 40 SSW BNA 55 W LOZ 25 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME SRN FL... ...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD FRIDAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESIDE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SURFACE HEATING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...LEAVING RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ...FL... SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH SRN FL AND MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME S FL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE LATER INTO THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND WEAKENS DURING THE DAY AS DRY SLOT SPREADS EWD ACROSS FL. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE PENINSULA. GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR INITIATION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE DEEP...DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 12:51:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 07:51:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504081250.j38CoVKm018346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081248 SWODY1 SPC AC 081246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 20 WNW DHN 40 SSW BNA 35 SSE LEX 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AST 55 NE SUN 50 W COD 20 SW GDV 35 E DIK 30 NW VTN 30 WSW MCK 25 ESE LAA 15 SW RTN 70 ESE PGA 20 NW SCK 30 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... A VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED LOW OVER GA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME...RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 55-60 F WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-100O J/KG TODAY ACROSS FL/GA/THE CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS S FL THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FARTHER NW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS S FL...INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BEEN REDUCED OVER ALL BUT THE KEYS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXTREME S FL. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING NRN CA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EJECTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS OF ONLY 28-32 F INVOF THE LEE TROUGH. STILL...SOME WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO NWD INTO WRN NEB AND SE WY THIS EVENING...WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES AND 30-40 KT FLOW WITHIN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 16:37:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 11:37:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504081635.j38GZnOL031593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 15 ESE TLH 25 ENE RMG 15 WNW 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 35 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FMY 10 ESE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FMY 10 ESE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 NNW LHX 50 NNW LVS 35 WSW FMN 30 WNW U17 30 W PUC 50 NNE EVW 40 NW COD 25 NNE 4BQ 35 NE RAP 60 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EXTREME SRN FL / KEYS... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 65-72 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA OF FL AS OF LATE MORNING BUT THESE VALUES WILL DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS EWD. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS ENDING FROM W TO E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. ...ERN GA / CAROLINAS... WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. POCKETS OF HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEAR 60. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION. ...ERN UT INTO SERN WY / NRN CO... A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE WRN TROUGH WILL SWING NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH MAY EXIST TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND DRY / DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. ..JEWELL / EVANS.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 19:42:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 14:42:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504081941.j38JewTX012585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081937 SWODY1 SPC AC 081936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:09:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:09:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504082208.j38M8QIm014861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082204 SWODY1 SPC AC 082202 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD SEE TEXT TO NRN CA ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN CA... STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS...REF MCD 527. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:13:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:13:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504082211.j38MBj55017283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082209 SWODY1 SPC AC 082207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD SEE TEXT TO NRN CA ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN CA... STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS...REF MCD 527. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:32:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:32:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504082231.j38MV7kk031150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082228 SWODY1 SPC AC 082226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082202Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NW BIH 15 SW SCK 50 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD SEE TEXT TO NRN CA ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN CA... STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS...REF MCD 527. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 01:03:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2005 20:03:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504160102.j3G12ErI015069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160100 SWODY1 SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 60 W ONM 4SL 35 NNW ALS COS GLD LBF BKX MSP LSE CID P28 CSM LBB INK 25 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR REMAINDER PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM NRN QUE SWWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO NRN MEX. RELATIVELY ACTIVE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PATTERN EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WITH LEAD TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGE POSITION OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATION OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN MANITOBA TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES...SFC FRONTOLYSIS IS EXPECTED OVER MN. HOWEVER...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL REMAIN SHARPLY DEFINED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT...FROM ERN NEB SWWD ACROSS SWRN KS/SERN CO TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL NM. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS IS NOT GENERATING ENOUGH LARGE SCALE DVM TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION GENERATED BY FAR MORE INTENSE OROGRAPHICALLY/THERMALLY FORCED LIFT IN BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL PLAINS... AFTERNOON TSTMS THAT INITIATED OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF NRN NM...AND SURROUNDING ELEVATED TERRAIN...IS LOOSELY ORGANIZING INTO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE FROM NOW THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD BECAUSE OF LOSS OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...PRIND FORCING ALONG FORWARD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN COMPLEX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING WITH SOME NEW GENERATION OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8-9 DEG C/KM -- PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED AMA/ABQ RAOBS -- SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN BUOYANCY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK -- I.E. 10-20 KT THROUGH MOST OF 700-500 MB LAYER -- STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING AND 20-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION TO GENERATE HAIL. SOME GUSTS MAY APCH SEVERE LIMITS ALSO...WHILE DESCENDING THROUGH WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z BECAUSE OF WEAKENING CAPE...COOLING INFLOW LAYER AND INCREASINGLY CLUSTERED/MERGING STORM MORPHOLOGIES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEWD TOWARD SUX/FSD REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT INVOF SFC QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG...ROOTED PRIMARILY IN 650-800 MB LAYER. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS KS/NEB WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ. ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 04:49:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2005 23:49:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504160447.j3G4lIUg014987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160445 SWODY1 SPC AC 160443 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 40 S SAD 45 WNW SAD 25 NW INW 35 NE U17 DGW BKX 50 NNW EAU OSH 30 E RFD MMO IRK 50 W CNU LTS 40 NE FST 20 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...DESPITE PERSISTENT MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NEWD TO ERN CANADA. NEXT IN SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM OVER CA/AZ BORDER REGION...SWD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION DURING AFTERNOON...PROVIDING WEAK COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT OVER PORTIONS INTERIOR ROCKIES. PRECEDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER FRONT RANGE/SANGRE DE CRISTO REGION...GIVEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE LIFT AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ...SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN FLANKS OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...MAIN FOCI BEING AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER ERN-MOST MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND CO. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BE MOST DENSELY CONCENTRATED WHERE 1. RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL/NRN CO...AND/OR 2. OUTFLOW AIRMASS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED GROUND MOISTURE RESULTING FROM CURRENT ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE MCS IS ADVECTED UPSLOPE AND HEATED BETWEEN LVS AND RATON MESA. EXPECT SFC HEATING AND 40S F SFC DEW POINTS ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 50S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 800-1200 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN...MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS REGION...WITH 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE FLOWS THROUGH 700-500 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL TURNING AND 15-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS ARE LIKELY IN LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOOPED HODOGRAPHS SUITABLE FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES IN EARLY/DISCRETE STORMS...AND PERHAPS SMALL BOWS WITH SUBSEQUENTLY MERGED/PROPAGATED CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT RIGHTWARD/SWD DEVIANCE OF STORM MOTION IS POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK MEAN WIND VECTORS BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED SLOW TRANSLATIONAL STORM SPEEDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN 21-03Z TIME FRAME. MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...TENDENCY TOWARD OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE AMIDST DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AND LACK OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING . MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND MINOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SUBSTANTIALLY IN LATE EVENING. KINEMATIC PROFILE OVER THIS AREA ALSO WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN WY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEB DURING PERIOD...PROVIDING SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIURNAL HEATING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW 40S TO LOW 50S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 800-1200 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE FROM CENTRAL IA NEWD WHERE NRN STREAM HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTER...BUT COMBINATION OF CAPPING...WEAKER MOISTURE...AND SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 13:01:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 08:01:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504161259.j3GCxb4L010509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161257 SWODY1 SPC AC 161256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 40 S SAD 45 WNW SAD 25 NW INW 35 NE U17 DGW BKX 50 NNW EAU OSH 30 E RFD MMO IRK 50 W CNU LTS 40 NE FST 20 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ENE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS TEMPORARILY RETREATS NWD INTO SRN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A PATTERN SIMILAR THAT OBSERVED FRIDAY WILL PERSIST OVER THE RCKYS AND PLNS. WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL/ERN NM. FARTHER N...FRONT WHICH SETTLED S INTO THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN N IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS/LEE TROUGHING IN MT/SASKATCHEWAN. ...NM/SRN CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/SRN CO LATER TODAY AS AXIS OF RESIDUAL LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS DESTABILIZED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WEAK FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ERN CO INTO NW KS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT REGION. THUS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT BACKED AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER...ESPECIALLY IN NM...RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN DEEP SHEAR DESPITE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT... STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SLOW AND DOMINATED BY PROPAGATION. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND PROPENSITY FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD TRACK MAINLY E/ENE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ...FAR W TX... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SRN IMPULSE NOW NEARING ELP THAT IS NOT WELL DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE ENE LATER TODAY AND BEYOND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/ FAVORED REGION FOR OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. WHILE SUFFICIENT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER REGION TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION... SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF IMPULSE MAY TEND TO DISCOURAGE/LIMIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. IF THE STORMS DO INDEED REDEVELOP...HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO MAY YIELD HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. ...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PERSIST INVOF FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB AND IA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK "MIDDLE STREAM' IMPULSE NOW OVER SD CONTINUES ENEWD. A FEW STORMS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE AS WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL OR TWO. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE. BUT LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 16:06:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 11:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504161604.j3GG4SK2000556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161601 SWODY1 SPC AC 161559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 50 NW SAD 30 S INW 75 ESE PGA 15 WNW LAR 20 N CDR 10 WNW AXN 15 SSW RHI 10 S OSH 35 ESE RFD 40 N PIA 25 SE OTM 35 W EMP 30 NW CSM 15 WNW MAF 35 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS IS UNSEASONABLY WEAK AS THE PRIMARY POLAR JET REMAINS MOSTLY IN CANADA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO PAC NW. TAIL END OF STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND VERTICAL MOTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND SURFACE WAVE VICINITY SWRN MN. SURFACE RIDGING SRN PLAINS HAS SHIFTED A MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SELY FLOW FURTHER W THAN ON FRI INTO FAR SWRN TX AND CENTRAL NM. WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS AZ INTO NM TODAY WILL ENHANCE MID LEVEL SHEAR AND PROVIDE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION INTO NM. ...NCENTRAL U.S... CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SWRN MN SUPPORTED BY LIFT ON THE N SIDE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NWRN IA AND MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS. CURRENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR MID LEVEL ROTATION AS STORMS MOVE INTO SWRN MN. WITH COLD/STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN COMMON IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE SCENTRAL CANADA S/WV TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...SHEAR AND SUPPORT FOR CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...NM INTO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL SELYS HAVE SPREAD MOISTURE WELL WEST ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S WWD INTO CENTRAL NM...AIR MASS WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH RELATIVELY COLD/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C/KM...HAIL SHOULD BECOME COMMON IN MANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL. AND AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS THERE COULD LOCALLY BE STRONG WINDS AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. ..HALES.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 19:28:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 14:28:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504161927.j3GJR9NB011942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161924 SWODY1 SPC AC 161923 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 45 S SOW 25 ENE INW 75 ESE PGA 40 ENE GUC 40 N LIC 30 SSW MCK 35 NE LBL AMA 40 NE HOB FST 35 E P07 40 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE EAU 15 NE AUW 30 ESE OSH 35 ESE RFD 35 W MMO 15 NNE BRL 20 SSE OTM 25 NNW LWD 55 NE OMA 25 SW SPW 30 SW RWF 35 NNE RWF 15 E STC 55 NNE MSP 55 NE EAU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ESELY AND IS SPILLING WEST OF THE NM DIVIDE OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER AZ AND BACKDOOR FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WWD AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NM AND SCNTRL CO. STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILERS /AZC-TCU-WSM/ SHOW 20-25 KT 0-6KM SHEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ABOUT A 10 KT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS 21-00Z. THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE FURTHER AND MOVE ENEWD INTO THE VLYS/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CELLS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLS...THOUGH ISOLD STORMS MAY TEND TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND REMAIN BACKED AND AIMED INTO NM. THUS...TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NCNTRL/CNTRL MOUNTAINS OF NM AND THEN MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...OR TOWARD THE TX/OK/CO BORDERS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING ENEWD INTO SRN MN. TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OWING TO WEAKENING OF THE LLJ. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL TSTM AREA. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...HOWEVER...DIURNAL BACKING/ WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IS ACTING TO CREATE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THUS...THE RISK OF TSTMS HAVE DECREASED. ..RACY.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 00:54:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 19:54:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504170052.j3H0qWH6026290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170032 SWODY1 SPC AC 170030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LWD 45 WNW BIE GRI 40 W OFK 25 NNW RWF 15 E STC 55 NE EAU 15 NE AUW 30 ESE OSH 35 ESE RFD 35 W MMO 15 NNE BRL 35 SSE OTM 40 SW LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 45 S SOW 25 ENE INW 60 S 4BL 50 ENE GUC 45 SW IML 35 S IML 35 SW MCK 40 SW HLC 45 NE GCK 35 NE LBL 40 NE HOB 15 SE INK 15 SE FST 35 E P07 40 NW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND WRN NM/FAR WRN TX... 00Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NM WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE ONGOING STORMS MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...ERN CO/FAR WRN KS/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE... A SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO AND FAR WRN KS WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. AS A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES THE AREA...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT IF CELLS CAN INITIATE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL IA... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS IA WITH A SFC LOW IN WRN IA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...A FEW CELL COULD INITIATE. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 05:46:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 00:46:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504170544.j3H5ilHG011123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170542 SWODY1 SPC AC 170541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW INK 55 SE GDP 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 50 ENE LAA 25 NNW GCK 10 NNW DDC 40 S DDC 25 NNW GAG 35 NW BGS 30 SW MAF 35 SSW INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 20 SW IWD 30 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 S MKE JXN 15 WSW TOL 35 NW DAY 30 SSE IND 25 WSW BRL 35 NNW IRK 20 ENE P35 45 SW JLN 30 N ADM 30 W BWD 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSW DMN 20 NW SVC 15 W 4BL 45 N GJT 45 E CAG 30 SSW BFF 45 SE RAP 45 SE REJ 25 SSW DIK 65 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 10 ENE 3TH 10 NNE S80 30 N BOI 60 W BOI 40 SSW RDM 15 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND NM MTNS... ...SRN PLAINS/NM MTNS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 50 TO 55 F. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM INTO WEST TX AND SW KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT. 21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE OK PANHANDLE SHOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 F WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND MAY HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. DUE TO THE PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SCNTRL KS AND NW OK BY LATE EVENING WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST. ..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF A HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD IN RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE. ALTHOUGH HARD TO IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...UPPER MIDWEST... CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS ERN NEB...IA AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BUT AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION. STILL...IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...MULTICELL STORMS THAT INITIATE COULD HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 13:03:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 08:03:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504171301.j3HD1JHj018047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171258 SWODY1 SPC AC 171257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 50 ENE LAA 25 NNW GCK 10 NNW DDC 40 SSE DDC GAG 45 SSW CDS 35 SSE BGS 30 SSE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E MTC 20 SE CLE 20 WSW HLG 35 WSW EKN 35 ESE 5I3 20 NE 5I3 15 E MIE 20 SSE SBN 40 WNW CGX 15 WNW MKE 45 ENE MKE 25 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 20 WNW SVC 15 W 4BL 45 N GJT 45 E CAG 30 SSW BFF 45 SE RAP 45 SE REJ 25 SSW DIK 65 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 10 ENE 3TH 10 NNE S80 30 N BOI 60 W BOI 40 SSW RDM 30 NNE OTH 20 NNE ONP 35 NW OLM CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 20 WSW IWD 30 SW CWA 25 NNE LNR 25 S DBQ 30 S OTM 35 NNW IRK 20 ENE P35 45 SW JLN 30 N ADM 30 W BWD 25 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW NEARING THE WA/ORE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SE INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN THE SRN BRANCH...SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A COMPLEX TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AZ NEWD INTO THE SRN RCKYS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD HEAD GENERALLY NE AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY...WITH THE LEAD PORTION REACHING N CNTRL KS/SRN NEB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DATA ALSO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE MOVING E/NE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NRN BAJA/NW SONORA. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WA/ORE TROUGH HAS REACHED WRN MT...CNTRL ID AND THE NW CORNER OF NV. THE FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS TO A CNTRL ND/NRN UT AXIS BY MONDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS E OF THE RCKYS. ...ERN NM/W TX NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLNS... STRENGTHENING OF LEE TROUGH E OF THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS WILL RESULT IN A MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND WEAKER UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER MUCH OF ERN NM AND W TX TODAY RELATIVE TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. A RESIDUAL SELY COMPONENT WILL...HOWEVER ...PERSIST OVER FAR SW TX AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION. LEAD PORTION OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR RTN ATTM AND SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING IN ITS WAKE OVER ERN NM AND W TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER ERN AZ...CONTINUES ENEWD. SURFACE HEATING...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODEST/RECYCLED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S/ SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. 25+ KT W TO WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS GOOD COLD POOL POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING. WITH THE LLJ EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN ON PAST NIGHTS...THESE CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST LONGER INTO THE NIGHT AND MOVE FARTHER E/NE THAN WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY...POSING A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS...NRN AND WRN OK AND NW TX. ...CNTRL/ERN NEB NNE INTO ERN DAKS/WRN IA/WRN MN... STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL TRANSPORT POCKET OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW PRESENT OVER THE LWR MO VLY NNEWD INTO VICINITY OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE STRONG UPDRAFTS... WARRANTING AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR HAIL. BESIDES LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE. DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN WEAK...THUS SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ATTM. ...NRN INTERMTN REGION... A BAND OR TWO OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL THUNDER MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ID...WRN AND CNTRL MT AND PERHAPS FAR NW WY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 16:26:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 11:26:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504171624.j3HGOGX9007598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171617 SWODY1 SPC AC 171615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 30 SW MCK 35 NNE HLC 25 WSW RSL 35 ESE DDC 35 ENE GAG 45 SSW CDS 35 SSE BGS 30 SSE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE RRT 30 ENE AXN STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 70 NNW SVC 40 W FMN 25 NW MTJ 20 N EGE CYS 55 NW CDR 25 SW REJ 45 ESE GDV 60 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE COLD TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO PAC NW...A WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM CO/NRN NM INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND THE ACARS WINDS WITH A VORT MAX VICINITY ALS ATTM. A 30 PLUS KT LLJ THAT EXTENDS FROM LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD THRU SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN KS IS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT A STEADILY INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. ATOP THIS MOISTURE THERE PERSISTS AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM. CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF CENTRAL ROCKIES S/WV TROUGH SHOULD THIN AND/OR DISSIPATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WRN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLE AREAS WITH LITTLE CIN REMAINING AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGH PLAINS VICINITY OF CO/KS BORDER SUPPORTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT REMAINS MARGINAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR UP TO 20KT WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH BASED ROTATING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AS WELL AS LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS GIVEN EXPECTED 30F T/TD SPREADS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD AND BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. FURTHER S INTO ERN NM/WRN TX STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND DRIFT EWD INTO WRN TX THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE BUT CAPPING COULD BE MORE OF A DETERRENT TO DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GREATER AMOUNT OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO SLOW HEATING AND A LITTLE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WILL BE LINKED TO PERSISTENT SLY LLJ THRU WRN TX. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WRN DAKOTAS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO 80S APPROACHING 90F WRN SD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY THREAT AREA WILL BE WCENTRAL SD ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE MUCAPES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG SD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30KT EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY REQUIRE A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 19:54:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 14:54:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504171952.j3HJqHSC010345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171948 SWODY1 SPC AC 171947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 ESE ALM 60 ENE 4CR 50 SSE RTN 40 NNE LAA 10 NW AKO 55 SE RAP 40 E REJ 40 NW PIR 35 NNE VTN 45 NNE HLC 25 WSW RSL 35 ESE DDC 50 NNE GAG 40 ENE PVW 20 W BGS FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE RRT 30 ENE AXN STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 75 NNW SVC DRO 20 WNW EGE CYS 35 NNW CDR 15 ENE REJ 45 ESE GDV 60 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN NM/CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS FEATURE...ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER VCNTY KPUB. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING N-S FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN NM. TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM MOUNTAINS IN THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSE A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO BE STRONGER. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...THOUGH...BECOME SLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH LITTLE FLOW EAST OF THE VORT MAX. THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO PULSE AND NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT...STRONGER CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE VORT MAX FROM NERN/ECNTRL CO INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN/WCNTRL KS. FOR MORE INFO...SEE MCD #575. ...FAR SRN HIGH PLAINS... SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NCNTRL NM CONTINUES TO GRAZE SERN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE WARMING WEST OF KELP PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT FARTHER EAST...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW-MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS WILL BE GETTING PARCELS WARM ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS AND MAY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL...SHOULD STORMS INDEED SURVIVE. THUS... WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK INTO SERN NM/FAR W TX THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE WRN DAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SWRN ND. AT THE SAME TIME...DRY WLY FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A MT SURFACE LOW HAS MIXED EWD PAST KRAP AND INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PNHDL. RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL SD/NCNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE RISK OF TSTM INITIATION BETWEEN 21-23Z. FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK IN THE COLUMN AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS. BUT...LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AND MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEAK KINEMATIC FIELDS. THUS...GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THREATS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FARTHER N TO INCLUDE SWRN/SCNTRL SD AND WRN NEB. FOR MORE INFO...SEE MCD #574. ..RACY.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 00:49:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 19:49:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504180100.j3I108IR018512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180057 SWODY1 SPC AC 180055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FST 45 SSE GDP 20 NW GDP 30 WNW ROW 55 SE LVS 15 ESE CAO 20 WNW LBL 10 SSW GCK 45 NW GCK 40 WSW GLD 45 WNW GLD 40 NNW GLD 35 ENE HLC 15 WNW SLN 20 S HUT 55 SSW P28 35 SW LBB 20 N FST 40 W FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TRI 15 SSW JKL 35 NE LEX 25 E LUK 20 SE CMH 25 E PKB 30 WSW EKN 20 WNW LYH 35 W DAN 50 SW PSK 25 NNE TRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 NW ONM 35 SSE FMN 15 SE MTJ 45 NNE CYS 35 N CDR 55 N REJ 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... RRT 35 ENE AXN 30 WNW MSP 35 SSW LSE 25 SSW DBQ 40 S CID 40 E LWD STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN KS EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS NE NM WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S F WHICH IS RESULTING IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN SERN NM AND FAR WRN KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO CNTRL KS...NW OK AND WEST TX THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO NE IA. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WEAK ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING ASCENT...ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 05:50:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 00:50:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504180600.j3I60VPa026971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W SJT 35 S BGS 20 NW LBB 40 ENE DHT 30 SE BBW 15 NNE FSD 20 NNE FRM 20 NNE MCW 20 SW ALO 35 SE DSM 30 WSW OJC 35 S EMP 30 SE END SPS 40 ENE SJT 25 W SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 30 S HOB 30 SSE LAA 40 E AKO 25 NE LAR 40 NW RWL 45 NW RKS 20 ENE U28 25 NW 4HV 40 NNE BCE CDC 10 NE P38 70 WNW P38 45 NW TPH 60 S NFL 30 ENE TVL 35 WNW RNO 15 SSE SVE 15 E SVE 50 NW LOL 25 NNE LOL 35 S BAM 55 S EKO 35 SSW ENV 25 NNW ENV 20 NW OWY 50 SW BNO 45 NNE MFR 50 NNE 4BK 30 SW OTH ...CONT... 30 NW HVR 30 SSE HVR 15 S LWT 35 N BIL 65 ENE BIL 50 E MLS 10 SW P24 60 N DVL ...CONT... 75 ESE ANJ 40 WNW PLN 20 WNW TVC 25 SSE HTL 25 NW MTC CLE 20 N HLG 15 E EKN 25 WSW SHD 10 WSW ROA 25 SSW PSK 40 E TRI 45 SSE JKL 40 NE SDF 20 SW BMG 30 ENE ALN 25 ESE TBN 10 ENE FYV 35 ENE DAL 30 W CLL 15 S NIR 50 SW ALI 40 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CONVECTION WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND KS. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL KS. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE UPPER-TROUGH AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SE NEB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL KS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS WRN IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...CONVECTION COULD GENERATE A COLD POOL AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING HOURS. IF A LINEAR MCS CAN GENERATE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS ERN NEB...WRN IA AND FAR SWRN MN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS ACROSS WCNTRL TX AFTER DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID-DAY...PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF A DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...CELLS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/M. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT BOW OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...WY/SD/ND/MN... AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING SWWD INTO WY TODAY. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AT 21Z SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NRN MN..SE ND AND CNTRL SD. A MARGINAL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WY WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ..BROYLES.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 12:38:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 07:38:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504181249.j3ICnIHU028282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181247 SWODY1 SPC AC 181245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SJT 15 SE MAF 30 W PVW 15 E EHA 50 NNE HLC 20 ENE BUB FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 15 SW ICT 30 SSW END 15 N SPS 45 ENE SJT 35 SW SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 40 WNW PLN 20 WNW TVC 25 SSE HTL 25 NW MTC 10 SSE CLE 15 WSW PIT 20 ESE EKN 25 WSW SHD 10 WSW ROA 25 SSW PSK 40 E TRI 45 SSE JKL 40 NE SDF 20 SW BMG 30 ENE ALN 30 S STL 45 SSE VIH 30 ENE FYV 40 SW PRX 50 SE AUS 25 SSW CRP 50 SSW ALI 40 S LRD ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 30 N HOB 30 SSE LAA 40 E AKO 25 NE LAR 40 NW RWL 45 NW RKS 20 ENE U28 25 NW 4HV 40 NNE BCE CDC 10 NE P38 70 WNW P38 45 NW TPH 60 S NFL 30 ENE TVL 35 WNW RNO 15 SSE SVE 15 E SVE 50 NW LOL 25 NNE LOL 35 S BAM 55 S EKO 35 SSW ENV 25 NNW ENV 20 NW OWY 50 SW BNO 45 NNE MFR 50 NNE 4BK 30 SW OTH ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 40 SE HVR 50 ENE HLN 15 SW LVM 55 W 4BQ 50 E MLS 10 SW P24 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NOSING N INTO THE GULF OF AK ATTM...SUGGESTING THAT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NOW SETTLING INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NV BY 12Z TUESDAY. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN AN IMPORTANT FACTOR GOVERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. LEAD PORTION OF COMPLEX SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITHIN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER N CNTRL KS/SRN NEB...SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD TODAY AND REACH ERN IA EARLY TUESDAY. SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN THE SRN BRANCH OVER NM/AZ...AS ARE IMPULSES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AT LOWER LEVELS...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLNS AND INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MO/UPR MS VLYS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE SE ACROSS ND/MN IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM SPEED MAX TRACKING E ACROSS MANITOBA. ...SRN HI PLNS... CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER THE SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN W TX...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RELATIVE TO POINTS A BIT FARTHER N AS A RESULT OF STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR MAIN AXIS OF SRN STREAM JET. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION WILL HAVE ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S/ AND WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM ZONE OF STRONGEST POST-IMPULSE SUBSIDENCE THAT MAY AFFECT PARTS OF KS. COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES SHOULD BOOST MEAN AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 25-30 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ONCE AGAIN MERGE INTO A SHORT BAND OR TWO OF FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS THAT WOULD EXTEND A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW TX. ...SW/S CNTRL TX... THUNDERSTORMS NOW PRESENT OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND BIG BEND REGION APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK...MODERATELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD/REDEVELOP E INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL TX LATER TODAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES EWD. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES WITH E/SEWD EXTENT...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. LIMITED DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE. ...CNTRL PLNS TO MID/LWR MO VLY... A BAND OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN KS/SRN NEB VORT MAX WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY TODAY. BACKING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN DEEP SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. A BAND OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANY UPPER VORT...AND EMBEDDED CELLS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. BUT COMBINATION OF MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED SBCAPE /LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG/ SUGGEST THAT THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM OVER NRN KS AND/OR SRN NEB...AS SURFACE HEATING UPSTREAM PROMOTES SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ON SWRN EDGE OF VORT-INDUCED PRECIPITATION AREA. DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SBCAPE /AROUND 2000 J PER KG/ AND DEEP SHEAR /35+ KTS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER... SOME DOUBT EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT POST-VORT MAX SUBSIDENCE WILL IN FACT PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT. MORE LIKELY...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT IN A NEW ROUND OF STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE VORT TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD POOL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD SEVERE HAIL OVER SRN/ERN NEB AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR NRN KS/NW MO AND WRN IA GIVEN STRENGTH OF MASS FLUX AND DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE /LIKELY ABOVE 500 J PER KG/. PATTERN MAY ALSO SUPPORT ECHO TRAINING/UPWIND DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. ...ND/NRN MN... CAPPING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING ND/MN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STORMS...HOWEVER...COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT AS ENTRANCE REGION OF MANITOBA SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS AREA. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST FOR HAIL IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DO FORM. BUT GIVEN THAT BULK OF LLJ MAX INFLUX WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY SRN STREAM VORT OVER ERN NEB/IA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IN ND/MN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 15:46:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 10:46:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504181557.j3IFv5Dl010873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181552 SWODY1 SPC AC 181550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SJT 15 SE MAF 30 W PVW 15 E EHA 50 NNE HLC 20 ENE BUB FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 15 SW ICT 30 SSW END 15 N SPS 45 ENE SJT 35 SW SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA 50 SW MSO 45 N SUN 40 WNW IDA 25 S 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 20 NE APN 10 NE FNT 25 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 E BMG 40 NW DNV 30 N SPI 65 N POF 35 ESE MLC 50 SE AUS 40 S LRD ...CONT... 25 ESE ELP 25 NNE HOB 30 SSE LAA 45 SE AKO 20 E CYS 45 WSW LAR 50 W EGE 25 WSW 4HV 50 WSW P38 30 ENE TVL 30 SSW OTH ...CONT... 10 SSW AST BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CURRENT POSITION ALONG KS/NEB BORDER SW OF GRI. 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS FROM LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD THRU WRN TX/OK INTO CENTRAL KS...RESULTING IN A STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB/SWRN IA... PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER VORT/TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING NEWD TO ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA THIS EVENING AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. BY MID AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RAISE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S WHICH COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY...MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN CORNER OF NEB. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT IN THE LOWER RANGE FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SFC TO 1 KM OF 25-30KT SUPPORTS ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NERN KS INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY. ...NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS... DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CENTRAL KS SWWD THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AS AREA IN THE WAKE OF VORT TO THE E...AND STILL SOME POTENTIAL CAPPING... THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WRN TX...WHICH COULD DELAY STORM INITIATION AS WELL AS COVERAGE. AGAIN LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT GIVEN LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 19:36:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 14:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504181946.j3IJkcfL010035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181944 SWODY1 SPC AC 181943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LBB 30 SSE BGS 60 NE P07 30 S FST 40 WNW FST 35 SE CVS 35 ENE CAO 35 S HSI 60 WSW YKN FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 10 SSW HUT GAG 40 NW CDS 40 ESE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA 50 SW MSO 45 N SUN 40 WNW IDA 25 S 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 20 NE APN 10 NE FNT 25 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 E BMG 40 NW DNV 30 N SPI 65 N POF 35 ESE MLC 50 SE AUS 40 S LRD ...CONT... 25 ESE ELP 35 SSE RTN 10 ESE LAA 45 SE AKO 20 E CYS 45 WSW LAR 50 W EGE 25 WSW 4HV 50 WSW P38 30 ENE TVL 30 SSW OTH ...CONT... 10 SSW AST BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN IA...ACROSS CENTRAL KS...INTO WEST TX... ...NEB/IA/NERN KS... AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA DURING THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR THE MO RIVER. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN IA AFTER DARK BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHEAST KS IS MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST KS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. ...CENTRAL KS INTO WEST TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY FOCUSING FROM CENTRAL KS...ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...TO WEST OF MAF. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. ..HART.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 00:52:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 19:52:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504190102.j3J12dg7011437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190100 SWODY1 SPC AC 190058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SLN 20 WNW SLN 25 NW CNK 35 W LNK 25 WSW SPW 10 S FRM 30 NNW MCW 25 NNW ALO 30 SW CID 30 SSW OTM 30 S MHK 30 ESE SLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LBB 35 WNW LBB 40 WSW AMA 20 NNE LBL 10 SW DDC 40 NW P28 20 SSE P28 45 W OKC 60 SSE CDS 10 SE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 15 NE INK 45 ESE TCC 25 W GCK 50 ESE GLD 20 ENE IML 15 S BFF 40 ESE BPI 20 E JAC 55 NW COD 15 SSW MLS 45 WNW MOT 50 N MOT ...CONT... 55 NNE APN 25 E FNT 15 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 10 N BKW 20 N 5I3 40 E BMG CMI 35 E UIN 30 WSW JEF 10 ENE FYV 40 NW TYR 35 NW NIR 10 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 65 SSW MSO 20 E BOI 80 N WMC 65 E 4LW 45 NE 4LW 45 N RDM 30 NW DLS 65 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS IA AND NW MO WITH EXPANSION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OOZ OMAHA SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 19 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR BUT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SE NEB AND NE KS. THE STRONGER SHEAR IS DUE TO A SMALL 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET SHOWN IN THE PROFILER DATA. THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE JET IN FAR SE NEB THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST WITH THE STORMS POSSIBLE AFFECTING SW IA AND FAR NW MO BY LATE EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...AN MCS WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... A LINEAR MCS APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTING BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD POSSIBLY REACHING FAR SW OK BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN ND. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BY LATE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 05:49:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 00:49:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504190559.j3J5xovV003159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190557 SWODY1 SPC AC 190555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 25 WSW CYS BFF MHN 20 NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 35 E VOK 30 WSW OSH 30 NE JVL 40 SW RFD 20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 60 S CDS 40 SE CDS 30 S LTS SPS 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 NNE BGS 35 W CDS 10 SSW LBL 45 E LAA 40 SSE LIC 50 WNW COS 20 WNW MTJ U17 35 ENE DRA 55 E BIH 35 ENE TVL 55 NNW LOL 45 WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 20 ENE SHR 15 SE REJ 20 NW MBG FAR 40 ENE ELO ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS NEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON...INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE WY AND NERN CO WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD INTO SW NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NERN IA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NEB SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NEB DUE TO THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN NEB SHOW 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WHICH SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE BACKED NORTH OF A SFC LOW. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND CNTRL IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO FAR NRN KS AND FAR NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...WCNTRL TX... A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WCNTRL TX TODAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE. AS SFC TEMPS WARM TODAY...THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 12:29:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 07:29:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504191240.j3JCe8Bv004996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191237 SWODY1 SPC AC 191236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 20 NW CYS 15 N AIA 15 WNW ANW 20 NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 40 SSE CWA 25 S MTW 40 SSE MKE 35 NW MMO 20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 60 S CDS 40 SE CDS 30 S LTS SPS 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 NNE BGS 35 W CDS 10 SSW LBL 45 E LAA 40 SSE LIC 50 WNW COS 20 WNW MTJ 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 25 NE MER 50 SE RBL 15 N SVE 45 WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 40 WNW GDV 35 SE ISN 45 ESE MOT DVL 70 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS TO THE MID MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN NV CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS N /WELL DEPICTED IN WV IMAGERY/ TEMPORARILY RESULTS IN DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK. A SPEED MAX NOW IN THE SWRN SECTOR OF THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP NE INTO ERN FLANK OF SYSTEM BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MAXIMA DROP S/SE INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT SRN BRANCH JET HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED AND ORIENTED MORE SW/NE RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ENCROACHMENT OF GRT BASIN LOW. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SRN BRANCH DOES PERSIST...AND A POSSIBLE IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW IS APPARENT ATTM OVER SW TX. ELSEWHERE...VORT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS AND CNTRL PLNS DURING THE PAST 48 HRS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TURNS MORE EWD IN CONFLUENT WLY FLOW OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. AT LWR LEVELS...ERN PORTION OF NRN PLNS COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT... WHILE WRN PART NOSES S AT A FASTER RATE INTO ERN WY/WRN SD/NW NEB. ATTM...SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE FRONT IN NEB/WY...WITH A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OFK TO NEAR OGA TO NEAR CYS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT CROSSING WY/SD AND NEB. THE FIRST SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER WRN NEB/SE WY...WHERE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING... INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION. A BIT LATER IN THE DAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EWD ALONG FRONT INTO ERN NEB AND IA...AND SWD INTO NE CO. THE MID/UPR FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST OVER THE REGION...WITH THE 500 MB FLOW RANGING FROM SSWLY AT 30 KTS IN NE CO/SE WY TO WSWLY AT 25 KTS IN ERN NEB. BUT THE RESULTING DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN SRN/WRN NEB WHERE FAIRLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BOOST SBCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. THIS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER E...SOMEWHAT GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD IN WAKE OF IA UPPER VORT MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS TO SUPPORT A LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND/HAIL THREAT IN IA. THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND MODEST WIND FIELDS SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED FLOW INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN SRN NEB...AND PERHAPS IN IA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SOLID BAND THAT DRIFTS SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS SRN NEB/IA AND PERHAPS INTO NE KS/NW MO TONIGHT. BUT WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AS GRT BASIN LOW EDGES EWD...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL /ELEVATED/ ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN SD. ...ERN IA/SRN WI INTO NW IL/WRN LWR MI... SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /AOB 500 J PER KG/ OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS REGION TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM IA VORT. BUT IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...FORCING BY THE DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW...MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS OVER ERN IA/SRN WI. IF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...W CNTRL/NW TX... LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS W CNTRL AND NW TX TODAY. AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE FEATURE...A BIT MORE MOIST THAN IN PAST DAYS. THIS MOISTURE HAS...HOWEVER...TRANSLATED INTO SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER STRATOCU. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AT MID LEVELS RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. MODERATE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD...NEVERTHELESS...BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...WV LOOPS DO SHOW A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER SW TX DRIFTING ENEWD. BUT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED BEYOND THE DRY LINE BY MAX HEATING TIME. GIVEN THE ABOVE RESERVATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE INITIATION OF DRY LINE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...HOWEVER... SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 30+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 16:07:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 11:07:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504191618.j3JGIFwH018395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191611 SWODY1 SPC AC 191610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 60 S CDS 40 WSW P28 25 SSE P28 20 SSW END 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 20 NW CYS 15 N AIA 15 WNW ANW 20 NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 40 SSE CWA 25 S MTW 40 SSE MKE 35 NW MMO 20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... 35 SW P07 15 NE BGS 25 WSW CDS 55 WSW GAG 20 SW GCK 45 SSE LIC 50 W COS 20 WNW MTJ 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 25 NE MER 50 SE RBL 15 N SVE 45 WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 25 SSW MLS 40 WSW P24 15 SSE GFK 35 NNW ELO ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN OK AND TX... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. E OF ROCKIES THE MID LEVEL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAYS SVR ERN NE NOW LOCATED ALONG MN/IA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT FLOW. WHILE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS MN INTO SWRN NE/NERN CO...A CONVECTIVE INDUCED BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NRN IA WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO NWRN CORNER OF KS. SWLY 30-40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY E OF DRY LINE FROM TX TO IA. THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MIX EWD THIS AFTERNOON TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD VICINITY TX/OK BORDER TO TX BIG BEND. ...IA/SRN WI/NRN IL... WHILE MID LEVEL VORT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO SRN WI TODAY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY/S OF THE E/W BOUNDARY IA/MN BORDER. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION IA INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL. 30-35KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT THIS AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN COOL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHING SUPPORT FROM UPPER VORT. ...SRN NEB/NERN CO... BOUNDARIES/FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW/STALL ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SHARP FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG NERN CO TO 3000 J/KG SRN NEB. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...30KT OR LESS...THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AS WELL. SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/N OF BOUNDARY IN HIGHER ELEVATION UPSLOPE AREA OF NERN CO/ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB. STORMS THEN WILL DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB VICINITY E/W BOUNDARIES AND LIKELY CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT WELL AFTER DARK GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ...WRN OK/WRN TX... DRY LINE WILL MIX A LITTLE FURTHER E TODAY PER MODELS AS LLJ HAS VEERED TO MORE SWLY PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT ABLE TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON...EXAMINING POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP WILL WEAKEN ALONG DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A STEEP ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM ...AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECASTED NWD TO KS BORDER AS MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE. NUMBER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO INITIATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 19:51:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 14:51:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504192002.j3JK23fZ016073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191955 SWODY1 SPC AC 191954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 35 N GLD 25 ESE AKO 10 N CYS BFF 45 N VTN MHE SPW 25 SSE FRM 10 WSW MCW 50 NNE ALO 40 NNW DBQ DBQ MLI 25 WSW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 SSE FST 50 SSE MAF 40 WNW SJT 35 WNW CDS 35 SSE LBL 10 E DDC P28 35 ESE CSM 10 NNW BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ILM AND TYS CKV PAH TBN SGF HOT ELD 10 SE MLU 30 ESE MCB 25 S GPT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 FST LBB 25 W AMA LAA ALS DRO 4BL 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 45 ENE MER 40 SE MHS 20 NNW 4LW BTM 3HT MLS DIK FAR 40 ENE ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR ITH AVP ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN HAS SLOWED...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CIRCULATION IS PROGGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO/AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ...PLAINS... UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN LOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...NORTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...AND SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING. WITH FURTHER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND...AS WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW ENHANCES UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHILE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEARING OF IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY IS ONGOING...BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN NARROW BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME HAIL...PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...BUT MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME FOCUSED IN TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ALONG DRY LINE TODAY...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEL RIO TX...WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION. ..KERR.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 23:08:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 18:08:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504192319.j3JNJEhf027251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192316 SWODY1 SPC AC 192315 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 192315Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 35 N GLD 25 ESE AKO 10 N CYS BFF 45 N VTN MHE SPW 25 SSE FRM 10 WSW MCW 50 NNE ALO 40 NNW DBQ DBQ MLI 25 WSW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 SSE FST 50 SSE MAF 40 WNW SJT 35 WNW CDS 35 SSE LBL 10 E DDC P28 35 ESE CSM 10 NNW BWD 30 NNE HDO 30 NE LRD 15 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR ITH AVP ACY ...CONT... 25 SW ILM AND TYS CKV PAH TBN SGF HOT ELD 10 SE MLU 30 ESE MCB 25 S GPT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 FST LBB 25 W AMA LAA ALS DRO 4BL 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 45 ENE MER 40 SE MHS 20 NNW 4LW BTM 3HT MLS DIK FAR 40 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... AMENDED FOR DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING TOWARD SW TX ...AMENDED TEXT... SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO SW TX AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...ORIGINAL OUTLOOK TEXT... SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN HAS SLOWED...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CIRCULATION IS PROGGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO/AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ...PLAINS... UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIFFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN LOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...NORTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...AND SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING. WITH FURTHER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND...AS WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW ENHANCES UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHILE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEARING OF IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY IS ONGOING...BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN NARROW BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME HAIL...PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...BUT MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME FOCUSED IN TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ALONG DRY LINE TODAY...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEL RIO TX...WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION. ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:55:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:55:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504200105.j3K15Nda003589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200102 SWODY1 SPC AC 200101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MCK 25 E DEN 20 SSW FCL 25 WSW CYS BFF 50 W VTN 15 SSE FSD 40 E MCW 35 ESE ALO 15 N CID 20 NNW OTM 30 E MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... DRT 75 S CDS 25 N GAG 40 NNE GCK 15 S GLD 25 WSW LIC 30 WSW GJT 25 S U24 50 WSW U24 20 WSW ENV 35 SW TWF 15 SE SUN 30 ESE MQM 40 SE BIS 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW TVL 25 W SVE 45 SW 4LW 15 ESE 4LW 80 NW WMC 25 WNW LOL 15 ESE RNO 30 NNW TVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NE CO/NEB/IA... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD FROM NE CO ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN IA. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN CO AND SW NEB LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS NE CO AND WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE BACKED SFC WINDS AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND THIS COULD PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTION. THE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. MODELS SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER EAST ACROSS IA...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL LATER TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SW TX... ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...POSSIBLY DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...A RAPID WEAKENING IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS SW TX. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED. ..BROYLES.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 05:53:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 00:53:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504200603.j3K63bAJ014275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200600 SWODY1 SPC AC 200558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE IML 15 ENE AKO 35 SW SNY 25 SE BFF 30 E AIA 20 NNW BBW 10 NE EAR 30 S EAR 15 SSW MCK 35 SSE IML. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SLO 35 W STL 30 NNW COU 35 SSE P35 30 NE P35 OTM 35 NNW PIA 45 SW SBN TOL 30 NNW MFD 15 SSW MFD 10 SSW CMH 55 W LUK 30 E SLO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 35 WSW ABI 35 NW LTS 40 N CSM 40 SSW END 15 SSW OKC 10 NNE MWL 60 WNW AUS 30 WNW LRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GLD 15 SSW DEN 50 E CAG 40 ENE RWL 25 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 10 SW OFK 40 S OMA 35 SSW FNB 25 SE CNK 20 ESE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW WAL 20 E LYH CSV 50 WNW CHA 40 NNW BHM 35 WSW 0A8 30 SE MOB ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF 45 S LBL 30 WNW GCK 35 NNE LAA 45 WSW COS 45 WSW MTJ 20 SSW U24 30 NNE ELY 40 SSE BAM 80 ESE 4LW BKE 3DU 35 SE GDV 40 N MBG 15 SW ABR 30 N OTG 20 NNW LSE 40 N GRB APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NE CO...WRN NEB AND CNTRL NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND MID-MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB. SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NE CO AND SW NEB WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z WEDNESDAY IN SW NEB SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...A LINEAR MCS MAY DEVELOP...MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WHERE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ...OH AND MID-MS VALLEY.. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN MO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IL...IND AND OH. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE STORMS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 60 + SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD HAVE A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. AS STABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD INITIATE A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 12:38:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 07:38:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504201249.j3KCnBvr016120@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201247 SWODY1 SPC AC 201245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GLD 10 WNW AKO 30 SE CYS 30 WSW BFF 10 NNE AIA 25 W MHN 10 NNW EAR 35 NNE HLC 40 N GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 30 E BGS 50 SSW GAG 30 ESE GAG 30 N FSI 55 S BWD 60 WSW COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BOS 25 WSW MSV 15 SSE PIT 20 WSW CMH 45 S HUF STL 15 ESE MKC 25 WSW ICT 30 ESE GLD 50 NNE LAA 15 S DEN 50 WSW LAR 50 SSE CPR 60 WSW RAP 20 SE PHP 40 NNE BUB 25 SSE OMA 30 WSW DSM 45 WSW ALO 30 SE MMO 25 WNW FDY 25 WNW FDY 15 NE CLE 35 N BUF 20 SSW BTV 20 SSW PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 25 WNW BGS 35 NNE AMA 45 ESE LBL 30 WNW GCK 25 ENE ALS 45 WSW MTJ 20 SSW U24 30 NNE ELY 40 SSE BAM 80 ESE 4LW BKE 3DU 35 SE GDV 40 N MBG 15 SW ABR 30 N OTG 25 W VOK 10 SSW MTW APN ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 20 E LYH CSV 50 WNW CHA 40 NNW BHM 35 WSW 0A8 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 45 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NE CO AND SW NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...MIDWEST AND OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY/NRN PA AND NEW ENG... ...SYNOPSIS... NE NV UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE...AND THEN N OR NNW... ACROSS NW UT AND SRN ID THIS PERIOD AS SYSTEM REMAINS PART OF REX BLOCK SETUP OVER THE PACIFIC NW. SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING BASE OF THE LOW OVER SRN NV/NW AZ SHOULD REDEVELOP NE INTO ERN CO BY 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER S...WV DATA SUGGEST LINGERING PRESENCE OF AN ILL-DEFINED SRN BRANCH JET EXTENDING FROM NRN BAJA ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO SW TX. THIS BRANCH OF FLOW MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME AS UPR LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS BACKS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF NV/AZ IMPULSE. AT LWR LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST OVER NE CO/NW KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW...NOW IN WRN KS...MAY RETROGRESS INTO ERN CO FOR AWHILE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF NV/AZ SPEED MAX. FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SRN NEB...BUT WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SEWD WITH INCREASING EWD EXTENT AS A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ...NE CO/WRN AND SW NEB... SEVERE WEATHER SETUP OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS EWD TO THE LWR MO VLY EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE YESTERDAY'S...EXCEPT THAT THE MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER CO/WY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS AS GRT BASIN SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE CNTRL RCKYS. COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE LWR PLNS... AND MOISTURE RECYCLED THROUGH OVERNIGHT MCSS IN NEB...SUGGEST THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP N AND NE OF ERN CO SURFACE LOW BY AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS BENEATH ALREADY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT SSWLY DEEP SHEAR..SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND IN MODERATE RISK AREA. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS STORMS CROSS AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VEERING N OF LOW AND/OR JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TEMPORAL BACKING OF MID AND UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...AND THE LINEAR FORCING THAT WILL EXIST WITH THE ASSOCIATED MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...DO CALL INTO QUESTION THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THAT WILL EXIST IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN SHORT...WHILE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR ATTM THAT WILL INDEED BE THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN IF STORMS DO QUICKLY MERGE INTO SOME SORT OF AN MCS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE NEARBY ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM/MCS DEVELOPMENT. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...BOTH DIURNALLY AND IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF CO IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT MCS IN WRN/SW NEB WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEB AND/OR WILL BE JOINED BY NEW STORMS FORMING INVOF FRONT OVER S CNTRL NEB SEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. ...MID MS VLY/MIDWEST... A WEAK MCV MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IN NEB...AND MAY IN PART BE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER IA. THE LLJ IN THE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE DAY. BUT FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NRN IL AND IND..AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST MODERATE SURFACE HEATING. COUPLED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...THIS MAY SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND. ...NRN PA/SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENG... DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM THE LWR GRT LKS E INTO SRN NEW ENG AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSED THE UPR MS VLY YESTERDAY BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP OVER THIS REGION AS THEY ARE FARTHER W ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BUT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE... NOW OVER WRN LK ERIE...HAVE SURVIVED THE NIGHT AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO HEATED DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PA/NY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SE INTO NEW ENG. GIVEN THIS SETUP...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAIRLY LARGE AND WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE. ...TX/OK DRY LINE... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLNS. THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM NV/AZ IMPULSE OVER THIS REGION TODAY. BUT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...SATELLITE LOOPS DO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA THAT WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS E OF THE DRY LINE HAS MOISTENED SOME RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...AND SKIES ARE FREE OF LOW CLOUDS ATTM ACROSS NW TX/WRN OK. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 16:22:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 11:22:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504201633.j3KGX6L6024584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201630 SWODY1 SPC AC 201628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT CDS DDC 55 NNE GCK 20 NNE COS 50 SW LAR 45 SSW DGW 20 W CDR 25 ENE ANW 55 ESE SUX 30 E MMO TOL 25 NNE UCA 10 SW ALB 15 WSW POU 35 W ABE 20 ESE ZZV 45 N SDF 35 NNE JLN 40 NW BVO 65 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 WNW BGS 65 NNE AMA 20 E LBL 25 W GCK 15 ESE ALS 4BL 20 SSW U24 40 ENE ELY EKO 50 NNW OWY 65 N BOI 65 E S80 3DU 45 ESE GDV 40 NNW MBG 20 W ABR 30 E BKX 40 W LNR MKG 30 NE MBS ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 E LYH 20 E CSV 20 WNW CHA 15 ESE GAD 10 WNW DHN 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 S EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN UT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH NRN AZ/SRN UT INTO WRN CO. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE WERE MCV OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS PRESENT FROM BAJA EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX WITH AN APPARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS IN WAKE OF TSTM CLUSTER OVER IA/MO. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... GIVEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO...SEVERAL CONCERNS EXIST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX. WHILE SOME NWD EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...IT APPEARS THAT LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NWWD INTO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB/NEB PNHDL...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY MAY WELL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. NONETHELESS... SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRATUS OVER NERN CO...AS WELL AS OVER DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG DEVELOPING 40-45 KT LLJ AXIS WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. ...IA/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY... REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. THOUGH SWLY LLJ /PER 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS/ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...EVOLVING MCV COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY WELL SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON 12Z OAX SOUNDING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING... DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... A SECONDARY TSTM CLUSTER IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE INTO N-CNTRL OH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS PA/NY...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION EWD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP WLY FLOW/MODEST DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL/EWD ELONGATION OF SYSTEM COLD POOL WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF WRN/W-CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EMBEDDED IN PROGRESSIVE...SUBTROPICAL JET CHANNEL. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED...SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO INDICATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 18:16:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 13:16:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504201826.j3KIQWCn018377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201814 SWODY1 SPC AC 201813 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT CDS DDC 55 NNE GCK 20 NNE COS 50 SW LAR 45 SSW DGW 20 W CDR 25 ENE ANW 55 ESE SUX 30 E MMO TOL 25 NNE UCA 10 SW ALB 15 WSW POU 35 W ABE 20 ESE ZZV 45 N SDF 35 NNE JLN 40 NW BVO 65 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 WNW BGS 65 NNE AMA 20 E LBL 25 W GCK 15 ESE ALS 4BL 20 SSW U24 40 ENE ELY EKO 50 NNW OWY 65 N BOI 65 E S80 3DU 45 ESE GDV 40 NNW MBG 20 W ABR 30 E BKX 40 W LNR MKG 30 NE MBS ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 E LYH 20 E CSV 20 WNW CHA 15 ESE GAD 10 WNW DHN 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 S EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN UT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH NRN AZ/SRN UT INTO WRN CO. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE WERE MCV OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS PRESENT FROM BAJA EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX WITH AN APPARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS IN WAKE OF TSTM CLUSTER OVER IA/MO. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... GIVEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO...SEVERAL CONCERNS EXIST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX. WHILE SOME NWD EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...IT APPEARS THAT LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NWWD INTO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB/NEB PNHDL...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY MAY WELL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. NONETHELESS... SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRATUS OVER NERN CO...AS WELL AS OVER DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG DEVELOPING 40-45 KT LLJ AXIS WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. ...IA/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY... REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. THOUGH SWLY LLJ /PER 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS/ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...EVOLVING MCV COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY WELL SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON 12Z OAX SOUNDING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING... DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... A SECONDARY TSTM CLUSTER IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE INTO N-CNTRL OH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS PA/NY...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION EWD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP WLY FLOW/MODEST DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL/EWD ELONGATION OF SYSTEM COLD POOL WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF WRN/W-CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EMBEDDED IN PROGRESSIVE...SUBTROPICAL JET CHANNEL. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED...SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO INDICATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 19:58:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 14:58:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504202008.j3KK8Pg5004490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202001 SWODY1 SPC AC 201959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 40 WNW SJT BGS LBB 20 WNW GAG DDC 55 NNE GCK 30 NE COS LAR BFF AIA VTN SUX 30 E MMO FDY JHW 10 SW ROC UCA MWN 25 NNW PWM ORH POU CXY SDF 40 ESE TBN 10 S CNU BVO 45 SSW TUL 10 S ADM 35 ESE SPS BWD 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ART PBG BML 30 NW EPM ...CONT... 25 E CRE FLO HKY TRI TYS CHA HSV 50 NNW MEI 20 NW JAN 35 ESE MLU HEZ MCB 10 NE BVE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF 25 NW LBB AMA 10 E LBL EHA TAD 45 SE GUC 4BL 10 SE SGU P38 45 ESE ELY SLC 20 SE PIH 15 NNE SUN 27U BTM BIL PHP MHE FRM JVL SBN 20 S DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS FROM THE LWR OH VLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...NEW ENGLAND INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...NORTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CANADIAN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHWARD SURGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS HEATED TO NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 80F FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CONTINUED EASTWARD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND RETREATING RIDGE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE HAS NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...STRONGER FLOW IN BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS CURRENT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIES. PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. THESE FEATURES HAVE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THOUGH MEAN WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS EXISTS IN STRONGER CELLS...AND CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONT...AND ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE... BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF FRONT ...AND DEVELOPING WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE LOW...AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL AWAIT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 21/00-06Z TIME FRAME...WHEN INITIATION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG FRONT TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG DRY LINE IS MOIST AND HAS BECOME CONDITIONALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING. GIVEN STRONG CAPPING...LACK OF BETTER FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME IS BECOMING FOCUSED BETWEEN UPPER JETS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY PROVIDE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ON TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING...IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION...INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 01:04:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 20:04:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504210115.j3L1F48X029815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210111 SWODY1 SPC AC 210109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW YKN 40 NW DSM 25 S CID 20 NE BMI 10 WNW LAF 30 E MIE 15 E DAY 25 NNE LUK 30 NNW SDF 35 ENE EVV 25 SW EVV 20 SSE PAH 25 NNW DYR 20 E ARG 40 SSW UNO 15 N HRO 20 W SGF 30 NW SGF 60 SSE OJC 40 SSW OJC 20 E EMP 25 WSW EMP 20 ESE ICT 35 WNW PNC END 30 WSW OKC 35 SE FSI 40 SSW SPS 55 NNW ABI 65 SSW CDS 40 ESE PVW 45 WNW CDS 50 ENE AMA LBL 30 E LAA 30 NE PUB 15 NNE COS 20 SE DEN 20 E FCL 20 NE CYS 40 WNW BFF 25 S CDR 40 W VTN 20 SW YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DRT 70 SW SJT 35 SE BGS 20 ESE LBB 35 N PVW 60 S LBL 20 ESE EHA 10 SSE LAA 30 E PUB 45 NNE ALS 40 ENE DRO 25 NE CEZ 20 ESE 4HV 50 SE U24 30 S DPG 45 N DPG 35 N OGD MLD 20 SSW BYI 50 NW TWF 80 NNE BOI 20 WSW DLN 40 E DLN 25 ENE WEY 35 SW COD 20 WSW WRL 35 S SHR 45 NE SHR 20 NE 4BQ 40 S Y22 35 N PIR 20 WNW FSD 25 ESE SPW 35 N CID 20 WSW CGX 30 SE SBN 15 WNW FKL 15 E ITH 25 NW GFL LEB 15 SW PWM ...CONT... 25 ENE ILM 10 SSW FAY 25 E HKY 15 ENE HSS 25 ENE CSV 55 WSW CSV 10 NE MSL 25 SW TUP 10 NE GLH 25 SSW MLU 10 SW ESF 10 NNW LFT 35 SE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CNTRL U.S. AND MIDWEST... ...NERN CO ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS... PRONOUNCED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ATOP A DEEP SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING...A LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN CO TO THE KS/NEB BORDER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL FEED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WILL BE LIFTED NWD ACROSS THE FRONT TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS NEAR THESE FEATURES. MOIST NELY AND UPSLOPE FLOW ON AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING SPREADS EAST AND BEGINS TO TAP STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AS TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT/LOW LATER TONIGHT. ...TX/OK/KS DRYLINE... SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH LIFTED NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER SCALE INTERMOUNTAIN CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING. COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO WRN OK WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF BOWING AND WAS ORIENTED NORMAL TO 35KT MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEP SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION...AND AIR MASS EAST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHILE STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WAS ALSO STRONGLY CAPPED BASED ON EVENING RAOBS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA OF SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY APPROACHING...OR HAS REACHED...ITS PEAK. A FEW MORE LARGE HAIL EVENTS...AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE BOW ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE A GENERAL DECLINE IN SEVERE THREAT ENSUES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ...WRN MO TO NERN KS/SERN NEB... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN MO ATTM EXTENDS NWWD TO THE MKC AREA...THEN INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE MO RIVER IN SERN NEB/SWRN IA. AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS EAST WITH THE LEE-SIDE LOW LATE TONIGHT...TSTMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE AREA WILL FUEL INTENSE STORMS IN A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A THREAT WITH A DEVELOPING MCS INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. ...MIDWEST... ISOLATED TSTM CELL HAS CROSSED THE MS RIVER FROM IA INTO WRN IL THIS EVENING WHILE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHEAR... INSTABILITY...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WAS LIMITED. HOWEVER...MOIST AIRMASS FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT OVER IL WAS SITUATED BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATE PLUME. MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN IL COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 05:53:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 00:53:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504210603.j3L63ZgC012794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210600 SWODY1 SPC AC 210559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW STL 55 SE VIH TBN 35 NE HRO 55 S HRO 35 NNW TXK 10 SE PRX 15 E DUA 45 WNW MLC 15 ESE PNC 30 ENE ICT 30 WNW MHK 25 WSW BIE 30 ESE LNK 45 W LWD 30 NW IRK 25 E IRK 40 NW STL 40 SSW STL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AUS 45 WSW HDO 15 NNE JCT 45 SE SPS 10 NE OKC 40 SW ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 NNE HLC 25 SSW LBF 30 SE MHN 55 NE BUB 30 NE SUX 45 W ALO 35 NNE MLI MMO 15 SSE LAF 25 ESE BMG 50 WNW SDF 35 NNW HOP 25 N MEM 25 SE ELD 40 ESE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW HSE 15 E CLT 20 NE AHN 25 WNW PFN ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 30 SSW LUL 35 NE HEZ 40 W POE 50 NNW NIR LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 30 SSW HUT MCK BFF 50 SW RAP 60 ESE REJ MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT GEG 50 S S06 30 NNE MQM 30 N JAC SLC 30 SSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE SEA EAT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM NERN TX TO IA TO IL...WRN IND AND THE MID MS VLY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS...ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS... MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA...AND ARKANSAS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NCNTRL U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCK FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NWRN CANADA. A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW MAKING UP THE SRN COMPONENT OF THE BLOCK IS FCST TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL CENTERS TODAY. ONE CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ID/ORE BORDER. THE OTHER LOW CENTER... NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE FORM OF A STRONG IMPULSE/SPEED MAX CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEB THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE. EVENTUALLY THIS EWD MOVING IMPULSE WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NCNTRL CANADA. ELSEWHERE...COOL AND PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHILE HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ...NEB/NRN KS TO NRN MO... SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT WSWLY MID LEVEL FETCH OFF THE DRIER AND WARMER ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE WRN/SWRN U.S. AND NRN MEXICO...HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD SWATH OF POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM TX TO NEB. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS/NEB TODAY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED TSTMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS...AND ENHANCED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST FROM SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO NWRN MO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO WRN IL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN KS/WRN MO SOUTH ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX AND WRN AR... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK THROUGH THIS MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT...FROM CNTRL/ERN OK INTO ERN KS AND SWRN MO...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. STRONG CAP ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS NEB AND WRN KS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW NORMAL TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE SFC LOW...MAY EVOLVE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR IN SPACE AND TIME...FROM SERN KS INTO ERN OK DURING THE EVENING. STORMS MAY THEN MERGE BEFORE SPREADING INTO NWRN AR WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT BY LATE EVENING. OTHER STORMS/SUPERCELLS MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS NERN TX THROUGH EVENING AS FORCING AND HEATING ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING OVER THESE AREAS. MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW INTO SCNTRL AND ERN TX AS CAP IS LOCALLY OVERCOME BY DIURNAL HEATING. ...SRN IA...CNTRL/ERN MO TO WRN IL... ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM SRN IA INTO ERN MO AND WRN IL THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THESE AREAS...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP FROM CELLS TRACKING SEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ...VA/NC AREA... SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS CNTRL VA MAY POSE A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND SHORT-LIVED. ..CARBIN.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 12:39:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 07:39:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504211249.j3LCnFMw010344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211245 SWODY1 SPC AC 211243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH 25 NNE POF 35 WSW UNO 60 S HRO 25 NW TXK 15 SE DUA 50 E OKC 25 ESE PNC 25 SW EMP 15 W MHK 25 WSW BIE 30 ESE LNK 45 W LWD 30 NW IRK 15 S UIN 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TPL 15 SW HDO 25 NE DRT 35 S SJT MWL 20 ESE OKC 10 NE ICT 10 W HSI 25 W BUB 60 NE BUB 30 NE SUX 45 W ALO MMO 15 SSE LAF 45 N SDF 35 ESE OWB 30 ENE DYR 60 ENE LIT 25 SSE ELD 30 E TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 30 SSW HUT MCK BFF 50 SW RAP 60 ESE REJ MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 45 NW FLO 55 SE MCN AQQ ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT GEG 50 S S06 30 NNE MQM 30 N JAC SLC 30 SSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE SEA EAT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SRQ VRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MO...ERN KS...ERN OK...NW AR AND A SMALL PART OF SE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN CO EJECTS E INTO THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY. AT THE SAME TIME...NRN STREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD...AMPLIFYING EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE GRT LKS. WHILE THE PLNS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY COMPACT...MID LEVEL W/WNWLY FLOW WILL NEVERTHELESS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN DEEP SHEAR OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND DRIVE COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN KS E TO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL KS SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY E ALONG WAVY WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL IL. ...LWR MO TO MID MS VLY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER SE NEB/NE KS AS DIURNAL HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. BOTH SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MAIN AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE WILL STILL BE W OF TRIPLE POINT AT THIS TIME. RESULTING ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING...COUPLED WITH MODERATE /35-40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /AVERAGE MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MO A BIT LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO IT MAY PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND A FEW TORNADOES. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN POCKET OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ERN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MERGING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH THAT ARRIVING FROM THE WNW...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONSOLIDATION INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WILL CARRY AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND E INTO IL TONIGHT. ...DRY LINE ERN KS/SW MO SWD INTO CNTRL AND NE TX... MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER IN THE DAY SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO TX AS SURFACE HEATING OVERCOMES CAP NOW IN PLACE. SATELLITE DATE SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL INDEED EXPERIENCE STRONG HEATING. IN ADDITION... OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S DRY LINE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF NRN OK/CNTRL KS. COUPLED WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY LENGTHEN HODOGRAPHS AND KEEP DEEP SHEAR FAIRLY PERPENDICULAR TO DRY LINE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. ...VA/NC... A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM IN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE VA/NC MOUNTAINS...AND INVOF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE /20-25 KT/ LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY MEAN FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION INTO SHORT BANDS...AND POSSIBLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 16:31:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 11:31:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504211641.j3LGfRp2026271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211636 SWODY1 SPC AC 211634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH POF 40 E HRO 25 NW TXK 15 SE DUA 50 E OKC 25 ESE PNC 25 SW EMP 15 W MHK 35 NNE CNK 15 NNW LNK 20 NE IRK 15 S UIN 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TPL 25 SW HDO 30 NE DRT 35 SSE SJT 25 NNW MWL 20 SSW PNC 40 NNE ICT 25 SW CNK 20 NNE BBW 55 SW YKN 45 W ALO 35 NE MLI 15 E MMO 25 SSE LAF 40 N SDF 30 E OWB 60 SSW JBR 25 SSE ELD 30 E TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 15 WSW HUT 10 N HLC 30 NNE SNY 40 SSE RAP 40 NNW PHP 20 E MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 50 SE CLT 10 S AGS 30 NNE MGR 10 SE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 WNW ORL 45 WNW PBI 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT 45 W GEG 40 N S80 35 SSW 27U 30 S MQM 20 NW JAC SLC 30 WSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE SEA EAT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN NEB...ERN KS...ERN OK...MUCH OF MO...PARTS OF WRN IL...AND NWRN AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN NEB WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB INTO THE MO / IA / IL PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY MOIST / SLY FLOW NOW EVIDENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM KS / NEB SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS / THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / ACTIVE SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR INVOF SURFACE LOW / NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB / N CENTRAL KS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING SWD ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO OK / TX. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SUFFICIENT VEERING / DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED...WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT / DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM S CENTRAL NEB / ERN KS INTO PARTS OF MO...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LOW / INVOF MO WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. OVERNIGHT...STRONGER / MORE WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH HAIL / ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS FLOW VEERS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MO AND INTO WRN IL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE. WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF NEARLY STATIONARY W-E BOUNDARY ACROSS VA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MODEST SHEAR /MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT/ AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS OR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...FL... FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN PENINSULA...AS LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW SUGGESTS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG W COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED / PULSE IN NATURE...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 19:47:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 14:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504211958.j3LJw0aJ008324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211951 SWODY1 SPC AC 211949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH 10 NNW PAH 35 N GLH 25 NW TXK 15 NNW PRX 30 WNW MLC BVO EMP BIE LNK 30 WNW OMA DSM OTM 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LFK HDO SJT SPS OKC PNC 30 N CNK 10 SSE GRI 20 NNE BBW 55 SW YKN 45 W ALO 35 NE MLI 15 E MMO LAF IND BNA 35 ESE GWO 10 WNW MLU 50 SW LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 WNW SPS 10 SE HUT EAR BBW MHN PHP ATY RWF JVL SBN CMH MGW MRB MRB 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 50 SE CLT 10 S AGS 30 NNE MGR 10 SE AQQ ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 WNW ORL 45 WNW PBI 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SEA YKM 35 SW LWS 35 SSW 27U 30 S MQM JAC LND RWL 35 NW VEL SLC 20 WSW TWF 80 SW BOI 65 N 4LW EUG 10 ESE AST 20 SSE SEA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB/SW IA/ERN KS/ERN OK/MUCH OF MO AND AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN PLAINS AND MID/LWR MS VLY.... STRETCHING SHEARING OF GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION CONTINUES...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES... AROUND BASE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... PLAINS FEATURE WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT AS IT CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WHERE MOIST CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS EVOLVED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...** MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE DOWNSTREAM HAS ALREADY WEAKENED INHIBITION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN STRENGTHENING WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY COULD PROGRESS THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ALREADY ONGOING NEAR CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR DRY LINE/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN THE MEANTIME...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW/TOUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO EXTENSIVE BROKEN SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...EASTERN GULF/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...** **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 01:10:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:10:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504220120.j3M1Kmcx026090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220117 SWODY1 SPC AC 220116 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OJC 30 NE MKC 35 SSW P35 40 SSW UIN ALN 15 NW MVN 40 E MDH 15 SE PAH 20 NE DYR 50 ENE LIT 10 S HOT 40 ENE PRX 15 NE DUA 25 WSW MLC 35 SW JLN 20 ESE OJC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 70 NE P07 30 SSE ABI 20 NNW MWL 50 NW MLC 35 WNW JLN 35 SSW OJC 25 W FNB 25 NE LNK 40 E OMA 15 WSW MLI 25 NNE HUF 35 ESE BMG 15 NW LEX 40 WNW LOZ 30 WNW CSV 25 NNE GLH 35 E SHV 35 WNW CLL 40 NNW SAT 55 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 40 SSW AGR 45 W PBI 15 SSE MIA ...CONT... 25 SSW MOB 25 NNW LUL 20 NNE HEZ 45 SSE LFK 40 W VCT LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 60 E FST 15 NE ABI 40 ESE FSI 50 WSW TUL 25 NW CNU 25 NNW MHK 45 SSW EAR 50 W LBF 50 WNW VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 SE ATY 10 ESE MKT 15 WSW MSN 20 W BEH 20 ESE DAY 15 ESE PKB 25 ENE EKN 20 ENE SBY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 35 SE CLT 25 SSW AND 40 SSW MCN 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW 4LW 30 N MFR 30 N EUG 20 N DLS 50 SE YKM 30 WSW S80 30 ENE BOI 65 WNW OWY 10 NW 4LW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FAR S TX TO THE MIDWEST... NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. ...MO TO IL AND THE MID MS VLY... DEEPENING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NWRN MO THIS EVENING IS FCST TO TRACK EAST ALONG SHARP WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE LOW EWD TO THE LWR OH VLY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF MO HAS BEEN LOCALLY OVERTURNED FROM NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ERUPTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOWS. WITH THE ONSET OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR UPWARD OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEB/KS...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT FROM ORGANIZED STORMS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE LOW...OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN MO...AND THE WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL TO ERN MO WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL...IN THESE AREAS AND NEAR THESE FEATURES. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST FROM MKC AREA ATTM. WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MO EWD TO THE BOOTHEEL. POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING BOWING COMPLEX WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE AS 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRY AIR INTRUSION SPREAD EAST ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS IND...WRN KY...AND MIDDLE TN BY EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN OK/AR... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LZK EVENING RAOB SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD FUEL A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...TX... WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...IN ADDITION TO GREATER INHIBITION...WILL KEEP THE NUMBER OF STORMS LIMITED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES CNTRL AND ERN TX. STRONG HEATING THAT OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WAS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW MORE STORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT. ...SWRN AL... LONG-LIVED COLD POOL FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT ORIGINATED OVER MO YESTERDAY...WAS STILL GOING ACROSS SRN AL THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS WEAKLY ORGANIZED...BUT INTENSE...CELLS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO WANE AS SURFACE HEATING AND STABILIZATION SET IN. ..CARBIN.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 05:54:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 00:54:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504220604.j3M64s6Q014197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220602 SWODY1 SPC AC 220600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LUL MEI 20 SE TUP 20 SE MKL 20 SSE PAH 35 SE MVN 25 SE MTO 20 NNW HUF 30 SE LAF 20 WNW DAY 40 SE DAY 25 W HTS 40 WNW TRI 10 S HSS SPA 40 NNW AGS 50 SW AGS 30 NE ABY 35 NE MAI 20 SW MAI 40 SE MOB 30 N GPT 40 SW LUL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 45 NE DRT 25 NW JCT 35 WNW ACT 20 WNW SHV 40 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 15 SW GLH 45 NNW GWO 30 SE JBR 25 WSW POF VIH 25 NNE COU 25 SE IRK 35 ESE OTM 15 E MLI 10 NE FWA 30 W HLG 45 ENE CHO 40 ENE RIC 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE SFO 30 W MER 15 NNE FAT 60 S BIH 25 NNE EDW 10 ESE SBA ...CONT... 65 WNW 4OM 35 N EPH 45 S LWS 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK 55 NNE LIT 15 SSE TBN 45 WNW COU 20 NNE LWD 45 E FOD 20 ENE RST 30 NE LSE 15 W GRB OSC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 25 NE UCA PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS... INDIANA... OHIO... KENTUCKY... TENNESSEE... EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA... GEORGIA... SMALL AREAS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM SERN TX TO THE MID MS VLY ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE EAST COAST AND NRN FL... A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE REGION OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. VERY LARGE HAIL... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES... ARE ALL POSSIBLE AS AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS... INDIANA... OHIO... KENTUCKY... TENNESSEE... EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA... GEORGIA... AND SMALL AREAS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...MIDWEST ACROSS THE TN VLY TO THE NRN GULF COAST ... COMPACT AND VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER NEB EARLY TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/NRN MN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THESE TWO CURRENTLY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WILL PHASE INTO A DEEP COLD CORE TROUGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY REGIONS WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...INITIAL TRIPLE-POINT SFC LOW OVER IL WILL TRACK OR REDEVELOP EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS OH AND WRN PA WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE LEADING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN AN EXTENSIVE ARC FROM THE OH VLY SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY LATER TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHIELD... EXPECT AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SECONDARY SFC LOW OVER IND...SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY...TO THE NRN GULF COAST. PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THIS REGION OF INCREASINGLY HIGH CAPE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z. ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND DIVERGENT 50-70KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SPREADING SEWD FROM THE LWR OH AND MID MS VLYS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHEN DISCRETE CELLS EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AWAY/SOUTH OF SFC LOW SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREATS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH TIME. BY EVENING...STORM MERGERS AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE ADVANCING FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL AND EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ADVANCE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS...GA AND AL INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...LA WWD TO SERN TX... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADS ACROSS THESE AREAS COINCIDENT WITH STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40KT ATOP WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS OR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...WRN ORE/LWR COLUMBIA RIVER VLY... WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN CASCADES COUPLED WITH SMALL POCKET COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE SWD. A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST GIVEN MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 12:17:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 07:17:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504221227.j3MCRvHo023288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221225 SWODY1 SPC AC 221224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUF 20 SSW DAY 40 WNW HTS 25 ESE ATL 40 NNE CEW 40 SSE LUL 25 N LUL 25 E CBM 30 SW EVV 25 SSE HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 30 NW HDO 35 W MLU 20 NNW GWO 40 E MEM 15 SW PAH 20 SSW BLV DEC 20 SE MIE 20 NNW ZZV 25 SSE YNG 35 NE LBE 45 ENE CHO 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK 55 NNE LIT 15 SSE TBN 45 WNW COU 20 NNE LWD 45 E FOD 20 ENE RST 30 NE LSE 15 W GRB OSC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 25 NE UCA PWM ...CONT... 65 WNW 4OM 35 N EPH 45 S LWS 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK ...CONT... 10 SSE SFO 30 W MER 15 NNE FAT 60 S BIH 25 NNE EDW 10 ESE SBA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF KY...TN...AL...AND SMALL PARTS OF SRN IND...SERN MS...NRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S.... ...MID WEST/SOUTH/SRN ATLANTIC COAST... STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM /NOW OVER NERN KS/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WAA AND H85 CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT QUALITY OF AIR MASS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...06Z MODELS /ALONG WITH 09Z RUC/ ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS BY 21Z. /LEADING ACTIVITY/ THOUGH MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL CONTINUE. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING AS HEATING AIDS IN WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ERN KY/ERN TN/NRN AL/NWRN GA. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT...MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. /AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY/ AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY... S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN AIR MASS RECOVERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS SRN IND/SERN IL/SRN OH. THIS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE OF OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN...AND DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL...HOWEVER...BE STRONGEST FROM MIDDLE TN/NRN AL NWD INTO IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATE IN THE DAY FROM SRN IND SWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED SWWD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN AND CENTRAL TX AROUND 20-21Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH EXPECTED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE NOSE OF STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS A FEW TORNADOES COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA. EVOLUTION INTO LEWPS/BOW ECHOES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD AND SEWD...INCREASING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER DARK. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY SPREAD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT. ...PAC NW... SMALL AREA OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MOIST MID LEVELS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY NEAR SLOW WWD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN ORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN FORM ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 16:43:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 11:43:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504221653.j3MGrGxS026774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221648 SWODY1 SPC AC 221646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EVV 30 S HUF 25 ENE LUK 40 WNW HTS 35 SE CSV 10 SE ATL 30 NNE MCN 20 E MAI 35 ESE MCB 40 NW BTR 30 WNW HEZ 35 W CBM CKV 30 SW EVV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 30 NW SAT 35 NE LFK 25 WSW MLU 15 NNE GWO 15 ESE UOX 10 SSE PAH 10 WSW MVN 15 WNW MTO ZZV 25 W MGW 20 WSW EKN 30 W SHD 25 E CHO 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 SW SJT 30 WNW TPL 15 NW SHV 20 ESE PBF 40 ESE JBR 25 E CGI 25 WNW SLO 20 N SPI 35 ESE MMO 35 NNW FWA 30 S DTW ...CONT... 15 SW BUF 10 SSW SYR 10 NNE ALB 15 SW ORH BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 50 SSW PDT 25 SW BNO 35 N MHS 20 N ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LNR 30 ESE IRK 35 SW IRK 45 WNW LWD 30 N FOD 35 SSE MSP 25 SSE EAU 10 E VOK 15 SSE LNR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S SFO 30 NNW FAT 55 NNW NID 15 S NID 10 S OXR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN MS...MUCH OF AL AND INTO WRN GA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN / OH / LOWER MS VALLEYS WWD INTO SERN TX AND EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD WITH TIME...AS STRONGER FEATURES UPSTREAM DIVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA / THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A LARGE / DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE TN / OH VALLEYS...WITH THIS TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID / UPPER JET. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF INITIAL VORT MAX...AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN PA AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW -- NOW STRETCHING SSWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN ACROSS SRN AR INTO NERN TX -- WILL MOVE SEWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM WRN PA LOW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...TN / OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / ATLANTIC COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY MOVE E OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH TIME ALONG / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM IL SSWWD INTO WRN TN / MS...AND THEN WSWWD INTO TX WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATTM. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S DEWPOINTS/ COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...WITH WIDESPREAD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME LIKELY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EVOLVE. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THREAT MORE LIMITED. ...SRN / SERN TX... THOUGH STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NE OF THIS REGION... ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL TX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE / DEVELOP WSWWD WITH TIME INVOF COLD FRONT. AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING SEWD OVER THIS REGION WITH TIME...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE. THOUGH HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...PARTS OF WRN WA / WRN ORE... UPPER LOW / VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL /-20 TO -22 C AT H5/ FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WA / ORE INTO THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE RATES...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:45:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:45:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504221956.j3MJu79Z030124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221952 SWODY1 SPC AC 221951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MDH 45 SSE MTO 15 SSE HUF 55 N SDF 10 E LUK 30 NW JKL 35 SE CSV 10 SE ATL 25 NW MCN 20 E MAI 35 ESE MCB 40 NW BTR 30 WNW HEZ 35 W CBM 45 NE MKL 35 ESE MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 S JCT TPL ELD GLH UOX DYR 10 N CGI MVN DEC CMI 30 S LAF 55 ESE IND 40 ESE DAY UNI PIT LBE 30 W MRB CHO 35 ENE LYH 60 ESE LYH ORF 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BUF SYR ALB ORH BID ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 50 SW SJT 30 WNW TPL TYR 35 NNE ELD LIT ARG 15 SE ALN 40 E UIN PIA 35 NNW FWA 30 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 50 SSW PDT 25 SW BNO 35 N MHS 20 N ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LNR 30 ESE IRK 35 SW IRK 45 WNW LWD 30 N FOD 35 SSE MSP 25 SSE EAU 10 E VOK 15 SSE LNR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN VLYS AND CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.... EVOLUTION OF LARGE DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO MERGING/PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSES... DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN BLOCK. ...MID SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GULF STATES/LWR MS VLY AND TX**... CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALREADY ACCELERATING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DRY LINE-LIKE STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ENVIRONMENT NEAR THIS FEATURE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 100O TO 2000 J/KG. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... AND...AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. EVOLUTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES**... CLUSTER OF STORMS INITIATED BY WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS IS NOT AS MOIST AS AREAS TO THE WEST...DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR ARE ALSO WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SIZABLE DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE COLD POOL SURGING DOWN THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG GUST FRONT...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS SPREADING OUT OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...GENERAL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...DUE PRIMARILY TO DIURNAL COOLING OF LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS**... SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION...NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. COLD STABLE SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOW TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ...AND UPPER IMPULSE WHICH SUPPORTED INITIATION OF ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST**... THOUGH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD OFF COASTAL AREAS...HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CASCADES BENEATH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COLD POOL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO HEATING/OROGRAPHY...AND STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 00:59:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 19:59:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504230109.j3N19FuL028600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230106 SWODY1 SPC AC 230104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB 40 SSE LUL 0A8 30 SW CHA 30 WNW TYS 35 WNW LOZ 30 WSW LUK 20 N LUK 45 E LUK 30 N 5I3 35 NW TRI 30 W HSS 55 WSW AVL 35 N MCN 60 W SAV 40 NE AYS 25 SE AYS 40 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 30 W NIR 45 SSE SAT 45 ESE SAT 45 SE LFK 20 ENE HEZ 25 WSW MEI 30 W TCL 25 ENE HSV 25 W CSV 45 NNW CSV 20 WNW SDF 30 ESE BMG 15 ENE IND 25 ENE MIE 35 NNW CMH 20 SE MFD 25 NNW HLG 30 WSW LBE 35 E EKN 15 SSW CHO 55 SW RIC 10 SE RDU 35 E FAY 30 SSE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE UIL 20 WSW SEA 20 NNE DLS 35 NE RDM 50 SSE RDM 30 NNW MHS 15 NW RBL 30 WSW SAC 25 WNW MER 25 WNW FAT 30 WSW BIH 60 NNW BIH 25 E NFL 45 ENE LOL BAM 55 SSE EKO 35 ESE ELY 45 W MLF 20 SE P38 35 E DRA 45 N DAG 30 SSE DAG 40 E RAL 25 NNW SAN ...CONT... 20 SSE DRT 50 SSW CLL 40 NE HEZ 40 WNW MEI 45 N HSV 25 SE BWG 45 SSE BMG 15 SSE HUF 15 SSW BMI 30 NNW BMI MMO SBN 45 NNW MFD CLE 15 NNE ELM 25 WNW ALB 15 SSW EEN 15 NW HYA ...CONT... 10 NNW DAB 15 S PIE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OHIO...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST TO THE OH VLY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST COAST... ...OH VLY TO NRN GULF COAST... A LARGE AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO THE TN VLY...THEN SWWD TO THE LA/TX GULF COASTAL PLAINS. UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW FROM SRN OH ACROSS ERN KY/TN TO NRN GA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ARE RESTRICTED/CHANNELED BY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. CLEARLY...SUFFICIENT AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SYSTEM...FROM SRN OH TO NRN GA...TO SUSTAIN ONGOING SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY UNTAPPED AND VERY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS. AS THE PHASING OF TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST RESULTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT AND ONGOING INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE AND SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. IN THE NORTH...MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN OH AND ERN KY/TN INTO WRN PARTS OF WV/VA/NC AND SC. EVENTUALLY...THE INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO WANE AS WEAKER INSTABILITY IS ENCOUNTERED OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION...AND RESPONSE OF THE LARGE SCALE WIND FIELDS...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL MAY REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES AND MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. IN THE SOUTH...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE LIKELY FROM THE MS DELTA EAST ACROSS AL/GA AND NRN FL. DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND VOLATILE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INTENSE AND ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LARGE AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED...MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER. ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 05:23:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 00:23:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504230533.j3N5XhZO028687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230531 SWODY1 SPC AC 230530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HSE 20 E EWN 20 WNW OAJ 15 NNE FAY 15 WSW RDU 25 SE DAN 50 ESE LYH 40 WSW DCA 20 ENE HGR 40 NNW CXY 20 NNE IPT 25 N AVP 40 NE ABE 30 ESE DOV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 45 S CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CZZ 35 NNE DAG 30 WSW BIH 45 W RNO 10 NNW MHS 25 NNW HQM ...CONT... 45 NNE 63S 60 N 27U 55 ESE RKS 35 N ALS 45 NNW ROW 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 30 S CEW 25 E MCN 40 SW GSO 30 NE SSU 20 SE ZZV 20 NE CLE ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD COMPLETING THE PHASING OF TWO VERY INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX... APPROACHING 100KT AT 500MB...ROTATES AROUND THE WRN/BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE TN VLY. AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS PA AND THEN TRACKS TO NY WHILE UNDERGOING OCCLUSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THROUGH THE DAY...AND SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF FL BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS...WITH COOL/DRY NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH KEEPING INSTABILITY LOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MS VLY. DESPITE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY FLOW REGIME...A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE MIDDLE U.S. RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER FIRST STREAMING INLAND FROM SRN CA COAST...ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO NRN FL EARLY SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY CONVECTION...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING. AN AXIS OF GREATER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BENEATH THE DRY SLOT...FROM NERN NC TO CNTRL/ERN VA...AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PA...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS AXIS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH STRONG SLY MID LEVEL JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE...WITH SEVERE HAIL DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA. ...FL... WIND GUSTS/HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NRN FL EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...SWRN/CNTRL AZ.. SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WAS PASSING EAST OF AZ EARLY TODAY AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE LWR CO RIVER VLY INLAND TO CNTRL AZ BEFORE THE NEXT POCKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING MAINTAINING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GRADUAL LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTENING...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD TSTMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND EVENT. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 12:29:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 07:29:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504231239.j3NCdeLu009725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231237 SWODY1 SPC AC 231236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 20 WNW OAJ 35 N SOP 25 ENE LYH 40 SW MRB 15 ENE PSB 25 N AVP 15 NE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW SAN 15 N EDW 35 W BIH 10 WSW RBL 40 WNW MHS 25 NNW HQM ...CONT... 45 NNE 63S 60 N 27U 55 ESE RKS 35 N ALS 45 NNW ROW 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 10 ENE AQQ 50 WNW SAV 40 SW GSO 30 NE SSU 20 SE ZZV 20 NE CLE ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN/CENTRAL FL... ...MID ATLANTIC... OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS AND LATEST ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN PA SWD INTO CENTRAL VA/ERN NC. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WRN PA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP NWD WITHIN INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM CENTRAL NJ ENEWD INTO NWRN PA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 70F AS FAR NORTH AS ERN PA...WITH 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY OVER ERN NC/SERN VA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE REGION BY 18Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF 1000+ SBCAPE SPREADING NWD INTO ERN PA BETWEEN 17-20Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD AT NEAR 40 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF SLGT RISK AREA. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND LIKELY STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z WHEN LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT FURTHER SEVERE RISK. ...NRN/CENTRAL FL... STRONG WLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM JAX/TBW AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY...AS EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDING FROM BOI. THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT SBCAPE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO NERN ORE TODAY. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 16:22:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 11:22:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504231632.j3NGWjCr030246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231625 SWODY1 SPC AC 231624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HSE 10 NW OAJ 20 NW RDU 40 ENE LYH 10 SW MRB 25 WNW HGR PSB 20 NNE PSB 30 E IPT 20 S AVP 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 30 NNE DAG 10 WSW MER 40 E UKI 35 ESE CEC 10 NW EUG CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA 55 SE FCA 20 SE BTM 40 NE IDA 25 SSW EVW 35 SSE CNY 35 WSW 4SL 35 WSW 4CR 50 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 SSE GSO 35 WSW PSB 30 SSW BUF ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS ...CONT... 20 W CTY 20 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 4FC 45 NNW 4FC 20 S LAR 15 SSE CYS 35 ENE DEN 30 WSW LIC 10 SSW PUB 50 NNE ALS 45 ENE GUC 25 SW 4FC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL.... ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER OH...AND THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DRIFT EWD TOWARD WRN PA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS WILL ROTATE EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE HEATING W OF THE CIRRUS BAND WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC/VA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 60-70 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17-19Z INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL NC NWD INTO CENTRAL VA...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT NWD INTO PA. EXPECT STORMS TO THEN SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS VA/NC...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL AND N FL... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...WHILE A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS FL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ...NRN GREAT BASIN AREA... 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOI AND LKN SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM NW NV INTO SE ORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVING NWD. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 19:37:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 14:37:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504231947.j3NJlunw001754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231944 SWODY1 SPC AC 231942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE EWN 20 S OAJ 10 E FAY RDU 25 SSE CHO 25 WNW HGR PSB 20 NNE PSB 30 E IPT 20 S AVP 15 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MLB 20 NW AGR 55 NNE PIE 15 SW GNV 20 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 25 W PMD NID 10 E SAC 35 ESE CEC EUG RDM DLS OLM CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA FCA 3DU MQM 10 ESE PIH 10 SSE SLC MTJ 50 SSW ALS SAF 4CR 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 SSE GSO 35 WSW PSB 30 SSW BUF ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS ...CONT... 20 W CTY SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EGE 35 E CAG RWL LAR FCL DEN COS 50 WSW COS 10 E ASE EGE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. COLD FRONT...SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. THUS...IT APPEARS MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF FRONT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NORTH NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO/OFF COASTAL AREAS...SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. AS LINE SOLIDIFIES...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER/MORE STABLE MARINE AIR CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS. ...FLORIDA... DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/ CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF MELBOURNE...WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR APPEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION OFF PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW LIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. ..KERR.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 00:30:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 19:30:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504240040.j3O0eSbr026003@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240038 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 10 NW MLB ...CONT... 25 SSW EWN 30 WSW WAL 20 SW AVP ROC ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 25 W PMD NID 10 E SAC 35 ESE CEC EUG RDM DLS OLM CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA FCA 3DU MQM 10 ESE PIH 10 SSE SLC MTJ 50 SSW ALS SAF 4CR 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MIA 65 NNE EYW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... NEGATIVE-TILTED H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REMNANTS OF THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT/ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VA/NC CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DE/SERN PA AND OFF THE VA/NC COAST. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN PA...NJ AND LONG ISLAND WAS LIKELY OF MARINE ORIGIN /IE MORE STABLE/ GIVEN THE BACKED SURFACE FLOW. THUS...THE TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE THROUGH THESE LOCALES THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLD GUSTY WIND REPORT. ...CNTRL FL... PLUME OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F HAS ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS FAVORING THE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS VCNTY KTPA. ISOLD STORMS MAY REMAIN SEMI-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. ...DESERT SOUTHWEST... SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST 195 W OF KSAN WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE COAST. H5 JET CORE OF 60-70 KTS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WAS NOSING INTO THE LWR CO RVR VLY WITH A DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ. HEATING AND INFLUX OF MODEST PAC MOISTURE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM SRN CA INTO THE DESERT SW. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NRN SONORA AND MOVE NNEWD INTO AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR ISOLD DOWNBURSTS/DUST STORMS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THREATS DO NOT SEEM TO MEET CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND/HAIL THREATS. ...PAC NW... TSTMS THAT FORMED OVER THE COLUMBIA/YAKIMA RVR VLYS THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVED TOWARD KYKM. A COLD POOL...HOWEVER...HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAINLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS HAVE PASSED. ..RACY.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 05:32:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 00:32:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504240542.j3O5giOI032028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240541 SWODY1 SPC AC 240539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ENE 63S MSO 25 SSE DEN 45 S LHX EHA 25 N END PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 15 S FHU 40 E PHX 45 NNE NID 15 SE TVL 50 SE EUG 10 ESE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE SRN CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LEE-TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO W TX... MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR E OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER LOW...WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE E OF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR VCNTY THE LEE-TROUGH. H5 TEMPERATURES DECREASING AOA MINUS 20C AND RECYCLED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH ISOLD GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MID-AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH MEAGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...BUT RATHER A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL. STORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH CINH MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED STORMS FROM FORMING/SURVIVING. BUT...GIVEN A STORM OUT ON THE PLAINS...LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY AID IN GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY DEVELOPS AFTER DARK...INCREASE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY LOFT PARCELS TO HIGH LFC/S ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE IN WCNTRL/CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOWEVER. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 12:26:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 07:26:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241236.j3OCai39001995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241234 SWODY1 SPC AC 241232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM INTO FAR WRN AND SWRN TX... BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AZ. ETA...ETAKF...AND 09Z IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER MEAGER...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-18C TO -21C AT H5/ AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z. AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS GREATEST QUESTION ATTM. BOTH RUC AND ETAKF DEVELOP 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE FROM CENTRAL NM INTO SWRN TX BY 21Z... WHICH WOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AS STRENGTHENING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE OVERSPREAD BY 45-55 KT WLY H5 WINDS TODAY. THUS...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY REQUIRE A SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MAY ALLOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL TX/SRN OK LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 12:31:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 07:31:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241241.j3OCfu2l004462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241239 SWODY1 SPC AC 241237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM INTO FAR WRN AND SWRN TX... BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AZ. ETA...ETAKF...AND 09Z RUC IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER MEAGER...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-18C TO -21C AT H5/ AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z. AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS GREATEST QUESTION ATTM. BOTH RUC AND ETAKF DEVELOP 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE FROM CENTRAL NM INTO SWRN TX BY 21Z... WHICH WOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AS STRENGTHENING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE OVERSPREAD BY 45-55 KT WLY H5 WINDS TODAY. THUS...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY REQUIRE A SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MAY ALLOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL TX/SRN OK LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 16:31:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 11:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241641.j3OGfgem018129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241639 SWODY1 SPC AC 241637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD VORTEX WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN ORE/NWRN CA SEWD/SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLATEAU RESULTING IN MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TAKING SRN PORTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND BREAKING IT OFF EWD INTO WRN KS AS IT BECOMES PART OF THE DOMINATING VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ...ERN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF W TX... LATEST SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN HIGH BASED AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...YET MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM. ALSO...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING OMEGA FIELD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...THEN ANOTHER BAND WILL REDEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE -18C TO -20C ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 15Z RUC INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES /8.5C/KM/ THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE INK/MAF VICINITY WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 7500 FT AGL AND 25-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THUS... WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FAVORABLE JET EXIT REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT CONSIDERING THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 19:37:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 14:37:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241947.j3OJlFiW032462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241943 SWODY1 SPC AC 241941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN NM / FAR W TX. THOUGH INITIAL BAND OF HIGHLY-ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM...NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS FAR W TX / WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF ASCENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE OBSERVED. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS OR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 12:27:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 07:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504251237.j3PCb6Ej019011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251234 SWODY1 SPC AC 251232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 W VCT 15 SSE AUS 35 NW ACT 35 WSW ADM 40 SE OKC 25 SSW MKO 30 WSW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 25 SSW AUO 40 NNE DHN 20 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 NE JCT 10 WNW BWD 40 ENE BGS 10 ENE CNM 30 WNW SVC 50 NE IGM 45 WSW P38 70 WNW OWY 45 N BNO 10 ENE ALW 20 NNE S80 30 ENE BPI 35 E DEN 50 NNE CAO 55 S LBL 30 N GAG 30 S BIE 35 SSE FOD 50 ENE ALO 25 SSE LNR 20 SW RFD 25 NW STL 20 NE MDH 10 SW BWG 30 WSW CHA 35 ESE LGC 30 ENE AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW OVER SERN CO/NERN NM WILL EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. STRONG /110-120 KT/ WSWLY H25 JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...AS A BROAD SWATH OF 50+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREADS STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS. RESULTANT SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SRN PLAINS/ NWD MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TX WITHIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND GENERALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO ERN TX TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM WILL HAVE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER STORMS. 06Z ETA STILL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ITS SFC MOISTURE RETURN... DUE TO FORECAST OF 70+F DEW POINTS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WHERE BOUYS ARE ONLY MEASURING LOWER/MID 60F DEW POINTS. AXIS OF 52-56F DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS NCENTRAL TX BY 21Z...WITH 64+F DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL TX...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH 09Z RUC. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-17C TO -19C AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLY S-CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR. SHOULD GREATER MOISTURE RETURN OCCUR...TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE GIVEN SIZE/SHAPE OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND EXPECTED DISCRETE NATURE OF THE STORMS. NWD EXTENSION OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER SURFACE DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT INTO THE EVENING. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED STORMS NEAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO ERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK LATER TODAY. /LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/ PROXIMITY OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED ...BUT COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INCREASE A TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 16:03:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 11:03:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504251613.j3PGDRsK026663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251607 SWODY1 SPC AC 251605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 W VCT 15 SSE AUS 35 NW ACT 25 WNW OKC 25 WSW BVO 40 SSW JLN 45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 30 ESE JCT 20 NNW BWD 30 W ABI 40 NW GDP 25 SW DMN 20 NE TUS 55 SSW PRC 55 SE TPH 45 N SVE 30 N LMT 40 SSE RDM 35 N BNO 40 ENE OWY 15 SSW SLC 35 NE VEL 60 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 30 NW LHX 40 SW DHT 10 WSW AMA 65 SW GAG 15 SE ICT 20 S MHK 10 SSW CNK 35 W LNK 15 SSW LSE 20 NE LNR 25 WNW RFD 15 ENE SPI 25 NNW SLO 25 ESE MVN 15 SW OWB 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10 SSE PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... SRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TX BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THUS BY TONIGHT STRONG POLAR JET WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX TO SERN STATES. THIS WILL PUT IN PLACE A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG SHEAR THE RELATIVELY COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER ACROSS SRN PLAINS TODAY ENHANCING INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON BOTH THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND A DEVELOPING DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS OK/TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW GOOD SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS WRN OK INTO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SE AND THEN EWD ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY LINE SETS UP FROM CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS NCENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG ERN OK UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG NRN TX AHEAD OF DRY LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 60F. SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE WITH THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT ...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE SHEAR...PARTICULARLY N TX WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK IF MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP S/SEWD THRU ERN TX INTO THE EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. ADDITIONALLY STORMS OVER SRN OK/NRN TX ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS/SQUALL LINE AND CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. AGAIN AMOUNT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY SRN MS/LA. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 19:48:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 14:48:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504251958.j3PJw6H0000607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251955 SWODY1 SPC AC 251953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE BWD 35 SSE SPS 10 WNW ADM 35 N PRX 30 NNW GGG 45 WNW LFK 30 ESE TPL 25 WSW TPL 35 ESE BWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 W VCT 45 NNW SAT 55 WNW MWL 45 W OKC 15 NW PNC 35 SW JLN 45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 25 SSE JCT 45 E SJT 65 NNW ABI 30 E CNM 25 SW DMN 20 NE TUS 55 SSW PRC 55 SE TPH 45 N SVE 30 N LMT 40 SSE RDM 35 N BNO 40 ENE OWY 15 SSW SLC 35 NE VEL 60 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 30 NW LHX 40 SW DHT 10 WSW AMA 65 SW GAG 15 SE ICT 20 S MHK 10 SSW CNK 35 W LNK 15 SSW LSE 20 NE LNR 25 WNW RFD 20 N BMI 10 ESE MTO 35 SSE BMG 30 N BNA 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10 SSE PFN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N CENTRAL TX AND A SMALL PART OF S CENTRAL OK THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK SWD THROUGH N CENTRAL TX AND SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FOLLOWING ANOTHER VORTICITY MAX THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SERN OK. 500 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX PANHANDLE SYSTEM ARE AROUND -20C...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC AND WRF MODELS IS COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN WI SWWD INTO N CENTRAL KS SWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ENHANCING LIFT OVER OK/TX/AR/LA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF N CENTRAL TX TO MODERATE RISK AS SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AIR MASS OVER N CENTRAL TX CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SFC BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 100 M2/S2 INDICATING FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR /55 KT 0-6KM SHEAR/ TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS...AS SFC LOW MOVES EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/TX RED RIVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 682 AND 683 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 00:54:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 19:54:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504260104.j3Q14Alw001327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 40 SSW LFK 25 NNW ACT 25 NNE FTW 35 N ADM 15 SW TUL 45 SSW JLN 45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S VCT 55 SSE AUS 20 W TPL 25 WSW SEP 20 SW ABI 20 W MAF 25 SW DMN 55 NE PHX 30 SSE LAS 50 SE TPH 15 WNW EKO 40 E OWY TWF 15 WNW MLD 40 NNE VEL 25 ESE GUC 30 WNW RTN 40 SW DHT AMA 65 SW GAG 15 ESE ICT 30 NNW BRL 25 SE MLI 20 NNW BMI 10 ESE MTO 20 ENE EVV 30 N BNA 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10 SSE PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/ERN TX EWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... ...SRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB LOW VCNTY KADM WITH A DRYLINE SWD THROUGH KDFW THEN SWWD TO JUST SE OF KDRT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-1700 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM ECNTRL OK INTO DEEP S TX. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SEWD THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. EARLIER TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE VCNTY KSEP-KFTW HAVE MOVED ESEWD TOWARD THE PINEY WOODS OF ERN TX AND HAVE WEAKENED SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE ATOP A COOLER AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS ECNTRL TX. ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVER SCNTRL OK VCNTY I-35 CORRIDOR NEWD TO NEAR KTUL AND TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FARTHER S...STRONGER CAP...WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE DIVERGENCE HAVE LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM INITIATION DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL TX. OVERNIGHT...H925-H85 LLJ WILL VEER AND BLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM WRN AR INTO NRN LA. RESULTANT INCREASE IN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AN EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...FROM ERN OK/AR INTO ERN TX AND NRN/CNTRL LA. ASIDE FROM A NARROW CORRIDOR OVER ERN OK AND ERN TX...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. HOWEVER...PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT FARTHER WEST AND ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. LATER TONIGHT...21Z NAMKF/RUC/SREF ALL SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LLJ SEGMENT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS JET WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR APPROACHING DEEP S TX AND SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA 09-12Z. THOUGH EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON INCREASING THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S BY MORNING. THIS GIVES RISE TO SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PCPN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS SRN LA TO SRN AL AFTER 06-09Z. IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD TORNADOES MIGHT OCCUR ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 04:44:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 23:44:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504260454.j3Q4spoI003282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260452 SWODY1 SPC AC 260451 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB SRQ ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 10 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 35 NNE MSL RMG ATL 60 SSW AGS SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 35 ESE OLM 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 4OM 35 WNW DLN 50 NNE BPI 35 S RKS 15 ENE U28 30 WNW U17 35 E SGU 35 S U31 35 N RBL EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 15 ENE CRP ...CONT... 20 ENE PSX 20 SW LFK 20 E PRX 65 WNW ABI 40 W LBB 20 SW AMA 45 NNW CDS 35 WNW OKC 20 SSW BVO 10 WSW SZL 20 NNW BRL 20 SW RFD 20 WSW FWA 25 W CMH 10 SE HLG 25 SE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...THE DEEP SOUTH AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE FROM N TX EARLY TUE...ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO THE SERN STATES TUE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE SEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA. ...LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA... RATHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED WITH MANY EVOLVING MESOSCALE DETAILS CONTRIBUTING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM. LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN GULF COASTAL STATES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A H5 JET AND THE APPROACHING N TX DISTURBANCE. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/INCREASING TSTMS WITHIN THIS BROAD ZONE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. BUT...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MS-SWRN GA BY LATE TUE MORNING...WITH 50S INTO CNTRL MS-WCNTRL GA. TSTMS ARE APT TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT ZONE OF CONVECTION. TSTMS SHOULD THEN MOVE ENEWD INTO SRN AL...SWRN GA AND NRN FL TUE AFTERNOON. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH HEATING WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BUT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM...NUMEROUS ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO ONGOING TUE MORNING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FEEDING FROM A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. IF SUBSTANTIAL HEATING CAN OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT CELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD AND TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATER TUE EVENING. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 12:07:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 07:07:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504261217.j3QCH4ME002551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261214 SWODY1 SPC AC 261212 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 10 W FMY ...CONT... 40 SE BPT 35 NNE ESF 20 SE GWO 15 N BHM 25 S ATL 55 NW AYS SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 4OM 35 NNE 27U 35 W BPI 40 NNW VEL 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 15 ESE P38 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE RBL EKA ...CONT... ONP 35 ESE OLM 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 15 ENE CRP ...CONT... 20 ENE PSX 40 NNE LFK PRX 65 WNW ABI 60 SSE CVS 40 ENE CVS 55 E AMA 35 WNW OKC 15 NE TUL 25 W TBN 40 NNW ALN 45 N DNV 35 ESE FWA 25 NW ZZV 10 SE HLG 25 SE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL PRECEED SURFACE COLD FRONT TODAY...WHICH WAS MOVING SEWD OUT OF ERN AR/ERN TX AT 12Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL FRONT NOW MOVING WELL INLAND SWRN LA AND EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN LA AND JUST OFF THE MS/AL COAST. MODELS BRING MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY NWD QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH 64+F DEW POINTS LIKELY ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 15Z. GFS AND NAM CONSISTENT IN INCREASING/DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN MS/ERN LA BY 15Z...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY EWD WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LA AT 12Z WHICH IS LIKELY BEGINNING OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. NWD EXTENSION OF STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE INTO THE TN AND OH RIVER VALLEYS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND WARRANT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY. SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH SMALL LINES. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROTATING STORMS WILL FAVOR PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/. TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT TODAY GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE THE SWLY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION. WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY THE MID/LATE MORNING. ...FL INTO SRN GA... AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER NEWD INTO GA AND NRN FL TODAY AS MORNING CONVECTION REINFORCES COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE. APPEARS STRONGER...MORE CELLULAR STORMS JUST OFF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WILL SPREAD EWD AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS COASTAL FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY INLAND. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD A SEVERE THREAT INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN FL...WITH LINE SAGGING SWD INTO CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT MAY WANE AFTER DARK...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH SMALL LINES/LEWPS INTO CENTRAL FL GIVEN VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 16:08:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 11:08:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504261618.j3QGIo9J012977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261614 SWODY1 SPC AC 261613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BPT 20 W HEZ 20 SE GWO BHM 25 S ATL 55 NW AYS SSI ...CONT... 25 SSE VRB 10 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 20 S CRP ...CONT... 15 SSW BPT 35 SW GLH 55 NNE GLH 25 WSW MEM 50 SSW JBR 60 SE HRO 20 SW FYV 10 NW TUL 20 WNW BVO 40 S EMP 15 S OTM 10 S DBQ 15 WSW JVL 35 ESE JVL AZO 25 SW CAK 15 WSW PIT 30 ENE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 15 W FCA 15 WNW LVM 35 ESE EVW 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 35 SW BCE 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE RBL EKA ...CONT... 40 S ONP 20 S SEA 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE DHT 15 SE CSM 40 N ADM 20 NNW DUA 45 NNW DAL 70 WNW ABI 35 S LBB 35 SSE CVS 30 NE 4CR 35 NE ONM 35 WSW TCS 35 SSE SOW 60 NW GUP 10 NW DRO 30 WNW TAD 50 ENE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLD UPPER LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO SWD THRU WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ROTATING THRU BOTTOM OF TROUGH ATTM TRANSLATING ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY/MIDDLE GULF COAST TO SERN U.S. TONIGHT. AIR MASS RECOVERY PROCESS ONGOING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREADING INLAND ACROSS NERN GULF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT AND THE UPPER SUPPORT ROTATING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...ONLY EXPECT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INLAND PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. ONGOING MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NCENTRAL AL WSWWD ACROSS SRN MS REFLECTS THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH NOW ROTATING ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER NRN GULF WHERE RICHER GULF AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR. SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MDT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE. WITH SUCH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...60-70KT FROM SFC-6KM... EVEN A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY COOL AND STEEP...THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DOMINANT WLY COMPONENT LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE NEARER THE NERN GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW HEATING PROCESS AHEAD OF STORMS...HOWEVER MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NRN FL INTO SRN GA/SERN AL. SINCE THE SHEAR AND HELICITY IS VERY FAVORABLE...SUPERCELLS COULD EASILY FORM ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN SUFFICIENT CAPE. THERE WILL BE A DECREASING THREAT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT AS THE LINES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND SE ACROSS SC AND FL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY NERN GULF REGION. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 19:52:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 14:52:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504262002.j3QK2aCk029621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261959 SWODY1 SPC AC 261957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 10 W FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW HUM 45 NW GPT 35 ESE MEI 20 NNE MGM 15 E LGC 55 NW AYS SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 15 W FCA 15 WNW LVM 35 ESE EVW 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 35 SW BCE 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE RBL EKA ...CONT... 40 S ONP 20 S SEA 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 20 S CRP ...CONT... 7R4 40 NE HEZ 25 SW UOX 25 WSW MEM 50 SSW JBR 60 SE HRO 20 SW FYV 10 NW TUL 20 WNW BVO 35 SSW EMP 10 NNW MKC 20 NW DSM 35 W ALO 25 NW DBQ 15 WSW JVL 35 ESE JVL AZO 25 SW CAK 15 WSW PIT 30 ENE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE EHA 15 SE CSM 40 N ADM 20 NNW DUA 45 NNW DAL 70 WNW ABI 55 ENE HOB 50 N HOB 35 ESE 4CR 20 E ONM 25 N DMN 30 NNW SAD 60 NW GUP 10 NW DRO 30 WNW TAD 20 ESE EHA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS MS/AL AND THE TN VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES...REACHING SC/NC REGION BY 00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE MS/AL TROUGH WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE INLAND RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY FROM SERN MS TO SRN GA AND CENTRAL/NRN FL. THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN LA/SERN MS TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN GA TO CENTRAL FL. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SSWWD TO SERN MS/SRN LA...WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NWRN GA TO SRN AL AND THEN WWD TO SERN MS/SERN LA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGHS SPREADS EWD ATOP DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF AND SPREAD EWD INTO SRN GA AND NRN/ CENTRAL FL. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF MS TO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE STRONGEST. ..PETERS.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 05:32:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 00:32:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504280542.j3S5gWh7029178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280540 SWODY1 SPC AC 280539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BVO 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 25 NNW PAH 35 W HOP 25 NNE MEM 40 NNE TYR 35 E DAL 10 W DUA 25 NW MLC 20 SSE BVO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 25 NNE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 SE OLM YKM 15 NW PDT BKE 10 NE BOI 35 NE SUN 35 SW JAC 35 NW RWL 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW MCK CNK 40 SW UIN 10 ENE IND 10 E CMH MGW DCA 10 SSE RIC 15 ENE RDU GWO 65 E ACT 35 SSE SEP 15 NNE LTS 35 NNW AMA 15 E LVS ONM 80 NE SAD PHX 10 W DAG BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WRN KY... ...ARKLATEX TO WRN KY... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRI-MODEL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY. IT APPEARS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN KS INTO NERN OK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 12Z AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN MO/AR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY VEERING LLJ THAT SHOULD FORCE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR...WHILE LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PURE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SWD. LATEST TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF SUGGEST LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL AR BY PEAK HEATING. WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY. DESPITE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. WELL AFTER 00Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH ERN OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 12:19:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 07:19:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504281229.j3SCTrOp014250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281227 SWODY1 SPC AC 281226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 25 NNW PAH 35 W HOP 25 NNE MEM 15 SW TXK 15 S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 25 NNE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 SE OLM YKM 15 NW PDT BKE 10 NE BOI 35 NE SUN 35 SW JAC 35 NW RWL 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW MCK CNK 40 SW UIN 10 ENE IND 10 E CMH MGW DCA 10 SSE RIC 15 ENE RDU 45 ESE GWO 65 E ACT 35 SSE SEP 15 NNE LTS 35 NNW AMA 15 E LVS ONM 80 NE SAD PHX 10 W DAG 35 S BFL 15 SSE VBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... MORNING MCS DEVELOPING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS LLJ AXIS VEERS. ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS MCS INTO THE MID MORNING. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THE MORNING STORMS AS ACTIVITY OUTRUNS FEED OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A NWD RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TX. COMBINATION OF MORNING RAIN AND ADVECTION WITHIN SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AN AXIS OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS AR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY. DESPITE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. AFTER 00Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH ERN OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF 35-45 KT SLY LLJ. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP 10C H85 DEW POINTS SUGGEST MODERATE MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP...AND SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 16:13:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 11:13:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504281623.j3SGNRBC006070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281619 SWODY1 SPC AC 281618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 15 E PAH 55 SW CKV 40 W MSL 30 NNW GLH 15 S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 35 SE RBL 25 NE MHS 65 ESE BNO 35 N SUN 45 SW JAC 20 ESE RKS 15 E SNY 35 E MCK 40 S BIE 25 NNE MKC 20 E CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20 SW HKY 15 NE RMG 35 SSE BHM 50 NE JAN 65 E ACT 25 SSE SEP 35 SSW ADM 50 NE OKC 35 E GAG 40 SSE EHA 15 SSE RTN 20 WSW LVS 25 WNW GNT 35 ESE PRC 40 SSW EED 30 W DAG 25 W PMD OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE NEL 20 ENE PSB 15 W BFD 30 NW BUF ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 15 SE SLK 15 SSE RUT 15 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN MANITOBA...WILL ROTATE SEWD INTO THE PLAIN STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE EJECTION AND WEAKENING OF AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN CA...AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO NM TONIGHT. ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... MCS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS DECREASE AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SURFACE LOW...LOCATED NEAR OKC AT MID MORNING...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN AR BY 00Z. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL AR AND WILL SHIFT NWD TO NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEAR A ACT-LFK SHOULD ADVECT NEWD AT LEAST INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...MUCAPES VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING AS COOLING BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS CAP AROUND 850 MB. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NERN AR/SRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO WRN TN/KY. AFTER 06Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION AHEAD OF WEAKENING CA TROUGH WILL APPROACH OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RESULT IN LOW LEVEL JET TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KT ACROSS ERN OK. STRENGTHENING UVV FROM THE LOWER/UPPER JETS ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ERN OK...WITH A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 19:52:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 14:52:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504282002.j3SK2UVb027855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282000 SWODY1 SPC AC 281958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 15 E PAH 55 SW CKV 40 W MSL 30 NNW GLH 15 S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 35 SE RBL 25 NE MHS 65 ESE BNO 35 N SUN 45 SW JAC 20 ESE RKS 15 E SNY 35 E MCK 40 S BIE 25 NNE MKC 20 E CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20 SW HKY 15 NE RMG 35 SSE BHM 50 NE JAN 65 E ACT 25 SSE SEP 35 SSW ADM 50 NE OKC 35 E GAG 40 SSE EHA 15 SSE RTN 20 WSW LVS 25 WNW GNT 35 ESE PRC 40 SSW EED 30 W DAG 25 W PMD OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE NEL 20 ENE PSB 15 W BFD 30 NW BUF ...CONT... 35 NW PBG 15 SE SLK 15 SSE RUT 15 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO THE MID MS VALLEY... SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN OK WILL MOVE EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NV APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EWD AT 80-90 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 60-65 KT FROM THE SFC-6 KM ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TX PANHANDLE SPEED MAX. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NERN OK...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN MO...WHILE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AR TO AROUND FSM AND THEN NWWD TO THE LOW. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 IN SERN OK EXPECTED TO REACH WRN AR BY 00Z. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WITHIN MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPEAR TO BE LIMITING A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU/TCU. HOWEVER...THIS SUPPRESSION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER INTO NWRN AR BETWEEN 21-00Z AS THE ASCENT/COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE TX PANHANDLE SPEED MAX SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. IF STORMS DEVELOP PRIOR TO 00Z...THEN SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD INTO WRN KY/TN. THIS UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SPEED MAX MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AND WAA ALONG A STRONG LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN TX TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...RESULTING IN HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO WRN AR/SRN MO LATE TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN NV TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. A SWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM CENTRAL TX INTO ERN OK. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL JETS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL. ..PETERS.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 00:48:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 19:48:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504290059.j3T0xB88024002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290057 SWODY1 SPC AC 290055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 15 SE TBN 35 NNE POF DYR 35 N MEM 25 N LIT 50 SE PGO 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP 30 E MKC 25 S CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20 SW HKY 40 NW AHN 30 SSE UOX 35 SSE TXK 40 SSW ADM 40 S OKC 10 NNW PNC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MRY 20 ENE TVL 25 E BAM 20 WNW OGD 35 SW RWL 30 NW IML 45 NNE HLC 35 SW RSL 40 NNW GAG 45 S EHA 55 SW CAO 25 SE GUP FLG 10 W EED 30 E EDW 10 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...ACROSS SRN MO INTO CENTRAL AR... ...AR/ERN OK/SRN MO... BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NRN AR AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT. RESULTANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CURRENTLY EXHIBIT WEAKLY CAPPED...YET ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PARCELS...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHALLOW CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS WRN-NRN AR...MOST LIKELY STUNTED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BACKING LLJ INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATER TONIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN AR BEFORE SPREADING EWD INTO WRN TN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 07:01:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 02:01:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504290711.j3T7BmtE023876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290553 SWODY1 SPC AC 290552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LIT 55 SW JBR 30 SW DYR 10 NNE MKL 50 NNE MSL 25 SSE MSL 45 SW CBM 55 NNE HEZ 25 W MLU 20 NW ELD 20 SW LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT 50 S LFK 15 SSW GGG 35 WSW TXK 20 NNW PGO 25 ESE TUL 25 WSW JLN 20 N SGF 45 NE UNO 25 N PAH 30 SW LUK 45 WNW HTS 20 E JKL 40 ENE CHA 25 SE ANB 30 SSW MGM 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 40 SSE AUS 40 ENE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 WSW TYR 45 SSE DUA 25 NNW OKC 25 ESE P28 10 ENE HUT 10 WNW OJC SPI 15 ENE MIE 25 SE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE EWN 30 WNW OAJ 30 S SOP 40 ENE CAE 30 ESE AGS 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 40 SW 4HV 35 NNE MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 N TCS 60 ESE PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SVE 10 S RBL 40 E EKA 30 S EUG 20 NW RDM 45 ESE BKE 20 SSE BOI 40 SSE OWY 25 SSE BAM 25 NNW NFL 30 SSE SVE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA...CNTRL/SERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NWRN/NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SERN TX TO NWRN GA INTO KY... ...MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES... DEAMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS RECOVERING WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTING THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE FINALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN NWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX...SRN LA WHERE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOTED AT 05Z. STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO AR WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO THE MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN OK/NRN AR WILL AID INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE DAY UTILIZING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REINFORCING E-W BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS AR INTO WRN KY. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM SECTOR INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AR UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND THE NEED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN AR IN PARTICULAR APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VEERING PROFILES AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR OR BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES. LASTLY...EVENING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS...HOWEVER STRONG FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS MS/AL INTO WRN GA BY MORNING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 12:32:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 07:32:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504291242.j3TCgVWf015818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291238 SWODY1 SPC AC 291237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIT 55 SW JBR 30 SW DYR 15 NNE MKL 35 S BNA HSV CBM 50 NNE HEZ 20 SSE SHV 25 N SHV LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 40 SSE AUS 40 ENE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 WSW TYR 45 SSE DUA 25 NNW OKC 25 ESE P28 10 ENE HUT 10 WNW OJC SPI 15 ENE MIE 25 SE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EWN 30 SSW FLO 60 W SAV 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 40 SW 4HV 35 NNE MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 N TCS 60 ESE PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SAC 10 S RBL 35 WSW MHS 30 S EUG 50 NNE RDM 45 ESE BKE 20 SSE BOI 40 SSE OWY 25 SSE BAM 35 SE TVL 40 ESE SAC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LIKELY PRODUCING A LOCALIZED OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/TN/MS/AL. ...AR/TN/MS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO TX/OK...AND ON THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS. SOUTHERN END OF ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AR...SOUTHERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS WITH A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...AR/LA/TN/MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND POCKETS OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN CAP OVER THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 21Z ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA AND INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS BY EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AR...WEST TN...AND NORTHERN MS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT. CONVECTION MAY ALSO ORGANIZE IN AN MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHWEST AL WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 15:32:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 10:32:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504291542.j3TFgdKB003114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291540 SWODY1 SPC AC 291538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 15 SSW HOT 40 SW JBR 15 NNE MKL 30 SSE BNA 15 NW GAD 25 W TCL 35 SE MLU 20 SSE SHV 25 N SHV TXK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 50 SSE DAL 25 NW PRX 25 SSE MKO 10 S JLN 35 N SGF 20 ENE JEF 35 NNE ALN 15 S MIE 35 SSE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HSE 40 NNW FLO 20 SSE MCN 10 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO 70 WNW WMC SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 45 SSE U17 15 NW 4BL 30 SW GJT 35 N MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 WSW ONM 60 ESE PRC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVING IN FAST WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN STATES AS LARGE POLAR LOW REMAINS OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AR WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH ENTERING SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BE PRIMARY FEATURE SUPPORTING DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TN VALLEY. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM KY WSWWD ACROSS NRN AR THEN INTO N TX WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW NCENTRAL TX. WARM SECTOR WILL RAPIDLY WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN STATES TODAY AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING INLAND. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGINS DEEPENING TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WIND MAX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... CURRENT ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN AR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS INTO TN VALLEY. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AND CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING SURFACE BASED...SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAP FURTHER W WILL DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN AR WHERE MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE TO S OF E/W BOUNDARIES. WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW FROM SERN AR ENEWD ACROSS MS INTO AL AND SRN TN. ADDITIONALLY SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND OVERNIGHT AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION EVOLVES MORE INTO BOWS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAINTAINING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF UNSTABLE GULF AIR. WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT...STRONG SHEAR AND AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 20:01:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 15:01:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504292012.j3TKCDe9022897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292006 SWODY1 SPC AC 292005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 15 SSW HOT 40 SW JBR 15 NNE MKL 30 SSE BNA 15 NW GAD 35 NNE MEI 30 NNE HEZ 35 SSW SHV 25 NNW SHV TXK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 50 SSE DAL 25 NW PRX 25 SSE MKO 10 S JLN 35 N SGF 20 ENE JEF 35 NNE ALN 15 S MIE 35 SSE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY ...CONT... 25 W HSE 40 NNW FLO 20 SSE MCN 10 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO 70 WNW WMC SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 45 SSE U17 15 NW 4BL 30 SW GJT 35 N MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 WSW ONM 60 ESE PRC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK...FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A LEAD SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO WRN TX. THIS LEAD TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AR/LA BY 00Z...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA...AND THEN EWD INTO MS/TN. MID LEVEL WINDS OVER ERN TX PER WIND PROFILER DATA AT LEADBETTER AND PALESTINE TX SHOWED BACKING AND INCREASING WINDS DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX NEAR SAT TO DRT...WHILE A COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO NRN MS AND TN TO KY. SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS OBSERVED IN SHV/JAN 18Z SOUNDINGS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE WEAK AND STRONG FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY UNTIL AROUND 00Z...SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM TO WEAKEN THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SHV SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/ERN TX. THUS...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z OR SOONER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST...AND THEN SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 18Z NAM SUGGESTED THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AR/LA INTO MS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/ TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NRN AR INTO WRN KY/PORTIONS WRN TN... CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL AR INTO KY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 00:52:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 19:52:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504300103.j3U13NpH002769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300101 SWODY1 SPC AC 300059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 20 SSE LFK 15 SE GGG 35 SE TXK PBF 30 SSW DYR 10 SW HOP 55 E BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG 25 ESE GSO 35 SE AND 10 NE AQQ ...CONT... 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 35 SW TYR 20 NNW TXK 55 NNW LIT 15 NNW CGI 30 NW EVV 55 W LUK 15 N UNI 10 S MGW 30 NW DCA 15 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO 70 WNW WMC SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SAD 30 SSE FLG 50 SSE PGA 35 W FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 E GUC 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 10 NE ROW 45 NNW ELP 40 NNW SAD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO ERN TN... ...GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION REMAINS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ROUGHLY NEAR 800MB FROM LA INTO AL. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR SUPPRESSING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN TX. AS A RESULT...FRONTAL FORCING APPEARS NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. CURRENT BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SERN AR INTO NWRN MS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWLY MOISTENING LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STORM MODE EVOLUTION MAY ULTIMATELY SUPPORT A HIGHER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA INTO WRN MS. LATEST THINKING IS A SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 04-06Z BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK LATE IN THE PERIOD. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE ERN TN VALLEY DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 05:24:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 00:24:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504300534.j3U5YN7o000670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300532 SWODY1 SPC AC 300530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM MEI 30 NW BHM 45 SW TYS BLF 25 SSE EKN 25 ESE AOO 30 N CXY 20 W ABE TTN ACY ...CONT... 35 ENE ORL 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E IDA 35 W LAR 45 WNW GLD 25 NE GCK 50 SSE DDC 20 S GAG 50 E AMA 50 N TCC 45 ESE DRO 20 SW 4BL 40 S ELY 10 S MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 SSW SLE 50 NW DLS 30 ESE PDT 35 E IDA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 10 NNE JCT 30 NNW CLL 30 N BPT 35 NNW BTR 20 SW CBM 25 NNE LOZ 35 WSW DUJ 25 WNW ELM 15 E UCA 15 SW LEB 15 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO VERIFY 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...EJECTING EWD AND DEAMPIFYING SOMEWHAT AS IT TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF STATES AS VERY MOIST PROFILES DEVELOP AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CENTRAL/WRN GULF BUOYS HAVE MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS AIRMASS WILL RETURN INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN LA INTO NWRN GA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AS INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...AN EXPANDING MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF STATES DUE TO REASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODE...HOWEVER INCREASING DEW POINTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF UPDRAFTS CAN INITIATE INDEPENDENT OF AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS CAN INDEED INITIATE. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM MODEL INSISTS LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO SERN PA BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOIST BIAS OF THIS MODEL AND ITS PAST PERFORMANCE THE LAST FEW RUNS...IT APPEARS DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 DEG...EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW AXIS INLAND ACROSS CNTRL VA INTO NC. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DUE TO WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AS WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO PA. IF PARTIAL CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES WARRANT PROBABILITIES SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IF BOUNDARY LAYER STORMS DO INDEED MATERIALIZE. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 12:13:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 07:13:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504301223.j3UCNmwS019547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301219 SWODY1 SPC AC 301218 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ORL 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM 40 E LUL 30 ENE ANB 25 NE AVL 10 WNW LYH 25 SSW NHK 10 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E IDA 35 W LAR 45 WNW GLD 25 NE GCK 50 SSE DDC 20 S GAG 50 E AMA 50 N TCC 45 ESE DRO 20 SW 4BL 40 S ELY 10 S MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 SSW SLE 50 NW DLS 30 ESE PDT 35 E IDA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 35 WSW BWD 35 NW ACT 35 NW LFK POE 35 W MCB 25 S CBM 30 SE LOZ 10 NW LBE 25 WNW ELM 15 E UCA 15 SW LEB 15 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AR/MS...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER WEST TX. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AL INTO NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. ...MS/AL/GA/FL TODAY... LARGE SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN MS INTO NORTH GA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS AL/GA/NORTH FL. SEVERAL BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ARE NOTED IN LINE...SUGGESTING AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. ...SC/NC/SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON... NORTHERN END OF SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO EXTREME WESTERN NC. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ...EAST/SOUTH TX... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DRT AREA TO NORTH OF HOU. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF LRD. ALL OF THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT...AND ARE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. ..HART/BANACOS.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 16:06:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 11:06:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504301616.j3UGGfHr028337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301610 SWODY1 SPC AC 301608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DAB 50 N PIE ...CONT... 45 E 7R4 60 SW SEM 40 SE MCN 30 SSE CLT 10 N LYH 15 SSW NHK 10 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 50 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 ESE HDO 15 N AUS 50 W LFK 30 NNW POE 20 NE HEZ 20 WNW BHM 40 NE TYS 35 SSE LBE 20 SE BFD 35 SSW UCA 20 ENE PSF BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI 50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN U.S. WITH CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING OVER NRN ONTARIO. FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN STG WLYS CURRENTLY ERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THE DIMINISHING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL TEMPER SOMEWHAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... REF MCD 724 SQUALL LINE HAS MOSTLY WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS WRN CAROLINAS ATTM...BUT WITH HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS LINE CONTINUES EWD. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF-SHORE AROUND 00Z ENDING SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COAST... WRN EXTENSION OF SQUALL LINE HAS SLOWED AND EXTENDS WWD FROM WRN FL PANHANDLE TO SERN LA. WITH APPROACH OF THE S/W FROM TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO SRN MS AND SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED RESULTING IN JUST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE SRN GA INTO ERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE SHEAR REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AND RICH GULF AIR MASS IS SPREADING INLAND. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 19:40:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:40:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504301951.j3UJoxZ9029386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301948 SWODY1 SPC AC 301946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 30 N TLH 35 SSW SAV 50 W CHS 20 NNW FAY 10 SSE DCA 30 SE DOV ...CONT... 10 NW DAB 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 30 SSE FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 SSW LUL 15 E ANB 40 NE TYS AOO 25 WSW IPT 30 ESE BGM 20 E PSF BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI 50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA... ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... WHILE ONE SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD INTO ERN NC...ANOTHER LINE WAS NEAR THE SC/GA COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE LINES TO PRODUCE A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR THE GA/SC COAST... THE WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST IN ERN NC UNTIL AROUND 00Z. ...NRN FL PANHANDLE... WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE IN SRN STREAM WAS LOCATED IN SERN TX AT 19Z MOVING EWD AT 45 KT. WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NEAR TLH SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE MS COAST. THE NRN GULF CONVECTION IS INGESTING RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ THAN IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MAINLAND...AND IS RESULTING IN THE STORMS TO PROPAGATE SEWD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF. TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES...WORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ...AL/GA... ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCAPES INCREASING AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NWRN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER ...MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN GULF. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SERN TX APPROACHES...WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 00:49:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2005 19:49:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504010048.j310msw2018943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010046 SWODY1 SPC AC 010044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GPT 20 ENE BTR 35 NW LFT 15 S POE 35 E LFK 15 N GGG 15 ESE TXK 40 S PBF 20 S UOX 20 NE CBM 10 S 0A8 45 WSW SEM 35 ESE LUL 35 NNW GPT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE GLS 10 WNW HOU 60 NNE VCT AUS TPL 50 SSE DAL 20 WSW PRX 35 ENE PRX PBF 40 ESE MEM 35 NNE HSV RMG ATL 40 SSE CSG 25 NE MAI 20 N PFN 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE CRP 10 NNW ALI COT HDO SEP SPS LTS CSM END TUL FSM LIT MKL HSS 25 S PSK RIC 10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 25 N PBI 60 NE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML GON ACY 20 SE BWI HGR 10 S LBE FKL 25 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF E TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...CNTRL MS AND PARTS CNTRL AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES.... ...GULF STATES... CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO CENTRAL/ EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT EARLY EVENING. BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...BUT NORTHWARD RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI IS UNDERWAY...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS SUPPORTED NEWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS FROM FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING IS PROGGED TO SPREAD EAST NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIMULTANEOUS EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW...ROUGHLY FROM THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN TEXAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...FED BY MOISTURE EMANATING FROM AIR MASS WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEW POINTS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/ SHEAR PROFILES ARE INITIALLY WEAK...SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY/SHORTLY AFTER 01/06Z. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP...BUT POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SURFACE-DESTABILIZATION COINCIDES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW... NEAR/NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO THE JACKSON MS AREA. ..KERR.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 05:53:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 00:53:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504010552.j315q9xA024234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010550 SWODY1 SPC AC 010549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW TYS 30 W HKY 40 WNW GSO 45 NNW RWI 25 SE RWI 35 WNW ILM 55 SSW AGS 40 ENE ANB 15 W CHA 40 SW TYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH HEZ UOX 30 WNW CSV 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 SW DCA 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 ENE PBI 55 ESE FMY 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 10 NNE HEZ 40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...FROM PARTS OF NRN GA INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTH....ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL COME IN PHASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS CONTINUES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEAN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING CYCLONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONCERNS MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. SURFACE HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...A MOIST...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND...GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS ELEVATED. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUS FOR MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM FRONT EAST OF SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...BUT PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT MAY FOCUS SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTH/EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS MORE EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED...INHIBITION IN SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN BELOW 1000 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE. BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR EVOLVING LINE COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 06:30:53 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 01:30:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504010629.j316TncF015059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010627 SWODY1 SPC AC 010626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW TYS 30 W HKY 40 WNW GSO 45 NNW RWI 25 SE RWI 35 WNW ILM 55 SSW AGS 40 ENE ANB 15 W CHA 40 SW TYS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH HEZ UOX 30 WNW CSV 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 SW DCA 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 ENE PBI 55 ESE FMY 15 SW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 10 NNE HEZ 40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS...FROM PARTS OF NRN GA INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTH....ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING THAT BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL COME IN PHASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS CONTINUES UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEAN FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN WARM SECTOR OF EVOLVING CYCLONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONCERNS MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR. SURFACE HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY STEEP. HOWEVER...A MOIST...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND...GIVEN STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS ELEVATED. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FOCUS FOR MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM FRONT EAST OF SURFACE LOW...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...BUT PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT MAY FOCUS SCATTERED ACTIVITY FROM SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTH/EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS MORE EXTENSIVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE SURFACE HEATING WILL BE LIMITED...INHIBITION IN SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN BELOW 1000 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CENTER TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE. BACKED SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BENEATH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT WHETHER A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR EVOLVING LINE COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 13:05:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 08:05:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504011304.j31D4NSX017633@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 NE MCB 25 ENE MEI 35 SW BNA 35 NW TRI 45 NNW SSU 45 NNE CHO 10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 40 N MLB 25 SSW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 50 WNW JAN 40 N GLH 15 N HOT 30 SSW HRO 15 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... OK CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PHASE WITH STRONG UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW DROPPING S THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS. THE RESULTING PHASED DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY AMPLIFY AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AND ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WAVE NOW OVER SRN MS WILL UNDERGO ONLY GRADUAL DEEPENING TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD... HOWEVER...STRENGTHEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS IT REDEVELOPS NNE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. A SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO FORM AT THE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE NC/VA EARLY SATURDAY. ...ERN GULF CST TO S ATLANTIC CST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WNW/ESE OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FOCUS OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION STORMS/CLOUDS WILL RETARD NWD ADVANCE OF BNDRY AND LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...SLIGHT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM PHASING UPPER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY WEAK. BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE N CNTRL/NERN GULF...WHERE AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT STRONG CELLS ON SRN AND WRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX MCS NOW OVER SRN MS/AL AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES E INTO GA/NW FL LATER TODAY...AND INTO CSTL SC THIS EVENING. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN APLCNS LATE THIS AFTN/ERY TNGT... A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER NRN AL/NW GA AND PARTS OF MIDDLE/E TN LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. THIS REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME SURFACE HEATING AS NEWD MOVEMENT DEVELOPING DRY SLOT CLEARS AWAY UPPER CLOUDS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING JET STREAK APPROACHES AREA. IF STORMS DO FORM...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO AS MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 80 KTS. BACKING OF UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING LINEAR FORCING SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO NE/SW OR NNE/SSW BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT SPREADS E INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER NE GA/WRN SC TONIGHT. ...CSTL SC/NC INTO CNTRL NC/VA EARLY SATURDAY... AN AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD /MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY/ WILL BE REGION EXTENDING FROM CSTL SC NWD INTO CNTRL NC AND S CNTRL VA...AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE WEAK. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC /WHERE AVERAGE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/STORMS AS DEEP SSWLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS. LONG... SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND MODERATE MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES/HIGH WIND. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 16:20:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 11:20:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504011618.j31GIxpn007002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011614 SWODY1 SPC AC 011612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW GPT 20 NE LUL 15 SSE TUP 50 N MSL 20 SSW JKL 45 NNW SSU 45 NNE CHO 10 ESE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE 7R4 50 WNW JAN 15 N GLH 10 SSE PBF 40 NNE LIT 30 E UNO 25 WSW MDH 45 ESE IND 30 WNW CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...OVERVIEW OF DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST COMPLEX THIS MORNING DUE TO MCS AND ITS AFFECTS NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE FL PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIPITATION PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF AL AND CENTRAL/NRN GA. OTHERWISE...POTENT UPPER SYSTEM AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NNEWD ACROSS NRN AL TODAY AND UP THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE MOVE STEADILY EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND INTO NRN FL/ERN SC/CENTRAL NC BY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASE IN SSELY LOW LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KT AT H85/ PRECEEDING THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SHEAR PARAMETERS AND ALLOW SOME RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO OCCUR WITHIN WARM SECTOR INTO AL/GA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...HOW MUCH RECOVERY REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT AND REMAINS PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM. REGARDLESS...THREE REGIMES OF POTENTIAL SEVERE REMAIN EVIDENT: 1) AHEAD OF PERSISTENT MCS INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA...2) AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO FAR ERN MS/AL/NRN AND WRN GA/SERN TN...AND 3) AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THE SERN U.S. COASTAL SECTIONS. ...NRN FL AND THE PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/FAR SRN SC... MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF MCS NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...AND SOUTH OF CLOUDINESS NOW OVERSPREADING CENTRAL GA. RESULTANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY ENHANCE AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL AND SERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...MODIFIED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SHOULD DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF BOTH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AND SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS MCS SHIFTS GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE DAY. WW LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...FEED OF SWLY SURFACE FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT RECOVERY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO NRN AND CENTRAL FL. ...AL/WRN AND NRN GA INTO THE APPALACHIANS... SEVERE THREAT MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THIS REGION AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DUE TO QUESTIONABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...MOST FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FOR SEVERE WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN LOW 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CENTRAL/NRN AL YIELDING 1000 J/KG MLCAPE USING A 70F/64F SURFACE PARCEL. WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUSTAIN SOME CINH AND SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AWAIT PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW CENTER LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. THUS...STORMS MAY BECOME LINEAR RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THEY FORM. HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT NEWD ALONG PATH OF SURFACE LOW...AND ESEWD WITH POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...CAROLINAS... THOUGH SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION TONIGHT... SHEAR VALUES WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR. IF TEMPERATURES CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT... CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAY ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE REGION...THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 1 20:14:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 15:14:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504012013.j31KDJMd030498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012010 SWODY1 SPC AC 012008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 10 SW GPT 30 ESE JAN 15 SSE TUP BNA 55 NNW CSV LOZ 15 N TRI 35 N HKY 40 ENE HKY GSO 40 SE LYH RIC 10 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB EYW ...CONT... 50 SE HUM JAN UOX JBR SLO PIA JVL 40 NE MKE AZO FWA MIE CMH 15 SSE JHW 35 ESE BGM 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS BETWEEN ERN MS...CENTRAL FL AND SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OZARKS AND OVER UPPER MS VALLEY -- ARE FCST TO PHASE INTO ONE DISCRETE CYCLONE ALOFT TONIGHT. RESULTANT LOW WILL SHIFT ESEWD FROM IL ACROSS KY AND ADJACENT OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED AL/TN BORDER -- SHOULD DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG WRN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED EXTREME ERN MS SSWWD ACROSS SERN LA -- WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH TONIGHT...SWEEPING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS AL...GA...WRN CAROLINAS AND MUCH OF FL. ...NRN FL...EXTREME SRN GA... ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER NRN FL...WHILE TRAILING ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE FL COASTAL BEND REGION AND NRN PENINSULA SUBSEQUENTLY. DAMAGING WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. REF SPC WW 121 AND SUCCEEDING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS THIS AREA. SRN END OF CONVECTIVE BAND DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION MAY AFFECT THIS AREA AFTER DARK. ...MS/AL/TN/GA... NARROW LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD FROM ERN MS ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN AL...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWD BACKBUILDING AS FOREGOING SFC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM DIABATICALLY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES MASS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. REF WW 122 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR NEAR TERM SCENARIO. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING NWD/NWWD FROM REGION AFFECTED BY FL PANHANDLE MCS. ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS IT GETS INTO ERN AL/GA WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED AIR MASS NOW IN SRN GA/NRN FL......HENCE RELATIVE MIN IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER MUCH OF GA. ...GA/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...LATE TONIGHT... EXPECT LLJ TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT AFTER DARK AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF TSTMS -- EITHER ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF LINE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY NOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS MS/AL. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS. HEIGHT/PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF CONSOLIDATED MS VALLEY UPPER CYCLONE...RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF AMBIENT WIND PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...DEPTH OF CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THIS REGION. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY DAY 2 TOWARD TIDEWATER AREA...REF SPC DAY-2 OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 00:39:28 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 01 Apr 2005 19:39:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504020038.j320cNCR021664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020035 SWODY1 SPC AC 020034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB 50 NNW PNS 10 E SEM GAD CHA TYS TRI ROA CHO 40 ESE CHO 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 35 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB EYW ...CONT... 50 SE HUM GPT 0A8 HSV 40 ESE BWG LUK MFD 45 W ERI BUF BGM MSV 20 SE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODEL FORECAST EVOLUTION OF DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS EVIDENT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. IN THE SOUTHERNMOST STREAM...IMPULSE HAS MAINTAINED POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...COLD NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL MERGER/PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS APPEARS LIKELY. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATER TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN WARM SECTOR WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A HEIGHTENED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES STILL PERSIST...PRIMARILY DUE TO APPARENT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EXTENDING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING HAS MINIMIZED HEATING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BOUNDARY LAYER IS FAIRLY MILD...IN THE LOWER/MID 60S...AND LITTLE COOLING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...AS AMPLIFICATION OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PROCEEDS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT... MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY FINALLY OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR... CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION. INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 02/03-06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS WITH STRONGER FORCING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN 40 TO 50+ KT MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT BETTER TORNADO THREAT LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO ANY CELLS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF LINE...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH HEIGHT. ..KERR.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 05:49:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 00:49:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504020548.j325m9tH021957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020546 SWODY1 SPC AC 020544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CHS SOP DAN 30 E CHO DCA 35 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW CTY 20 NNW JAX 40 SW SAV 45 SSE AGS 40 N AGS 15 W GSP 10 ENE HSS 10 WSW BLF CRW UNI CMH MFD CLE ...CONT... MSS GFL PVD ACK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... EVOLUTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS UNDERWAY JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES TODAY...AS DRYING IN WAKE OF EASTERN SYSTEM PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ROCKIES. FARTHER WEST...LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. ...SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS FROM AREAS OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH HAS PROGRESSED AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND HAS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE CYCLONE. LEAD IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT EAST OF COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH BASE OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM TROUGH CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MODELS SUGGEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN 02/12-18Z FOR EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM THE MYRTLE BEACH SC/RALEIGH N.C. AREAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...BETTER MOISTURE MAY FINALLY ADVECT INLAND OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. STRONG FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...BEFORE LINE PROGRESSES OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS MID-LEVEL COLD CORE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE...DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... COLD FRONT MAY ONLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL PENINSULA AREAS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME FOCUSED OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY MID DAY...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 12:47:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 07:47:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504021245.j32CjrMv027474@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021243 SWODY1 SPC AC 021241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 25 S RDU 25 SSE LYH 30 SE HGR 20 SSW ABE 10 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 50 ESE VLD 45 NE AYS 45 SSE AGS 40 SSE AND 30 SSW AVL 10 N HSS 30 NNE JKL 35 SSW CMH 35 NNW CMH 35 NNW MFD ...CONT... MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 20 NNE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION/SRN NJ... ...SYNOPSIS... PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER N CNTRL KY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG AN ARCING PATH ACROSS WRN NC AND REACHES SE PA BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRIPLE POINT LOW NOW DEVELOPING IN SW VA SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT SLOWLY NNE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NC/SRN DELMARVA CST. ...ERN CAROLINAS TO SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW OCCURRING OVER VA/MD AND PA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL NWD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD...DE ...NJ AND SE PA. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW OVER WRN NC AND SW VA LIFTS NEWD. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 100 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ON ERN SIDE OF UPPER LOW...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH AVERAGE SBCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG. RECENT INCREASE IN CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING OVER N CNTRL NC/WRN VA IS PROBABLY START OF WHAT WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MAINLY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE EPISODES ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OTHER STORMS MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG AXIS OF PREFRONTAL VEERING INTO ERN NC/SE VA...WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING MAY BOOST CAPE TO 1000 J/KG. GIVEN STRENGTH OF S TO SSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AOA 60 KTS/ AND INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BANDS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN SRN/ERN VA. WHILE THE RISK IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD END BY 18-19Z...DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER SYSTEM AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD ALLOW SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR ERN VA...ERN MD...DE...SRN NJ AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE PA. POST FRONTAL THUNDER MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT OVER PA/NJ. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK BUT 50+ KT WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF COLD FRONT. LIMITED DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 16:32:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 11:32:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504021631.j32GVorL006648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021629 SWODY1 SPC AC 021627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 40 SSW ECG 25 NW RIC 40 S MRB 30 ENE HGR 10 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY VRB ...CONT... 25 ENE ILM 35 SE FAY 10 NW FLO 30 N CAE 30 ENE SPA 40 WSW GSO 20 NW DAN 35 NNW LYH 15 W EKN 30 W MGW HLG 20 WSW ERI ...CONT... MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 25 NE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE DELMARVA... ...DELMARVA... NARROW LINE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WEAK ORGANIZATION AS IT LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS NRN/ERN VA THIS MORNING. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POCKETS OF WARMING /I.E. SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S F/ MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL UNTIL LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO COOLER AIR NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE ARE HOLDING IN THE 50S INVOF SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR ERN WV PANHANDLE/NWRN VA AT 16Z. AS LOW CENTER TRACKS NEWD NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT... HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST. ...ERN NC... REFERENCE SWOMCD 485 FOR MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION. NARROW WINDOW OF SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE OUTERBANKS AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. ...SRN FL... LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN FL THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...12Z SOUNDING AT MFL INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION BETWEEN 750-700 MB. THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...DESPITE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MAINTAIN ATTENDANT LOW PROBABILITY THREAT OF HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 2 19:59:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 14:59:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504021957.j32Jvv6S017393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021955 SWODY1 SPC AC 021954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE EWN 25 SE RWI 55 N RWI 40 NNE CHO 25 WNW DCA 15 WNW NHK 25 NE ECG 40 SE ECG 35 NE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN 15 NNW ILM 25 N FLO 45 SE CLT 30 SSW GSO 20 S SHD 30 NW MRB 40 ENE BFD 25 WSW SYR 50 NE UCA 30 NW RUT 20 NNE LEB PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 25 S PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN NC AND DELMARVA... ...DELMARVA AND NERN NC... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR WRN VA AND CURRENT NEWD MOTION WOULD PLACE THE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL VA BY 00Z. THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED EWD OFF THE NC COAST...WHILE THE CONVECTION FROM MD/NJ NWWD ACROSS ERN PA HAS WEAKENED DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN VA/NC... ESPECIALLY WEST OF A ILM-DCA LINE... AS WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO WLY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EAST OF THIS LINE AND SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND NERN NC. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL END BY 01Z/02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT LEFT FOR THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NW HAS ENDED ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..IMY.. 04/02/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 3 00:51:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Apr 2005 19:51:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504030050.j330oJEp005714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030047 SWODY1 SPC AC 030046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ORF 25 SSW RIC 30 SSE CHO 40 SW MRB 35 NW MRB 25 WSW PSB 30 SE BFD 35 WNW ELM 25 WSW SYR 50 NE UCA 30 NW RUT 20 NNE LEB PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DELMARVA... DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SERN PA THIS EVENING WILL UNDERGO FURTHER OCCLUSION OVERNIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS GENERALLY NWD INTO S-CNTRL NY...IN CONCERT WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL APPEAR TO BE SUSTAINING A SMALL ARC OF TSTMS FROM NRN VA/CNTRL MD SEWD ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...AND SOME THREAT MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ..MEAD.. 04/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 00:53:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Apr 2005 19:53:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504040051.j340pqHM007429@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040050 SWODY1 SPC AC 040048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 30 WNW AXN 40 NNW ATY 10 ESE MBG 35 NE 4BQ 30 N SHR 15 SSE COD 45 NNW EVW 55 WSW OGD 30 WSW ELY 35 ENE FAT 15 SSW MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS... THROUGH 04/12Z...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN 04/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS OVERNIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE ID PNHDL INTO WRN MT. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT... ADDITIONAL...MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASING POSSIBLE FROM ERN MT ACROSS ND WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. ..MEAD.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 12:28:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 07:28:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504041227.j34CRhEp017143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041225 SWODY1 SPC AC 041224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE CMX 15 ENE RHI 15 SSE MSP 10 ENE OTG 25 N OFK 25 NW GRI 30 NNW DDC 35 N AMA 15 SE TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 40 E BIH 30 SW NFL 75 SE 4LW 60 N BOI 35 N HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL CA SHOULD MOVE E/ESE ACROSS THE SRN GRT BASIN TODAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY... WITH RESULTING CLOSED LOW REACHING NE NM/SE CO BY 12Z TUESDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE OH/TN VLYS. ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER SRN SD SHOULD REDEVELOP SWD INTO WRN KS TONIGHT/ EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT REACHES THE SRN HI PLNS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GRT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AS EXIT REGION OF 80+ KT SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NV/FAR NRN AZ NEWD INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE ROCKIES. FARTHER E...STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ SPREADING E/NE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL KEEP MOST OF THAT REGION FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY PRESENT ATTM OVER ND...ALONG THE FAR NERN FRINGE OF THE EML. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD INTO NRN MN AND THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLNS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER. BUT GIVEN LIMITED DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR...ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL BE MINIMAL. POST FRONTAL THUNDER MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...WHERE VERY STRONG ASCENT WILL OCCUR ABOVE SHALLOW COOL AIR SURGE JUST E OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 16:39:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 11:39:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504041638.j34GcTu6018735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE CMX 10 ENE RHI 15 ENE STC 45 ENE ATY 35 WSW BKX 25 NW GRI 30 NE GCK 10 ESE EHA 30 WSW TCC 30 SW GNT 20 NW IGM 55 ESE TPH U31 50 N WMC 60 N BOI 35 N HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EWD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY. DYNAMIC/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO TONIGHT. SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER...WITH HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS. ON PERIPHERY OF ERN GULF/FL HIGH PRESSURE...GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS ENCROACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AT MIDDAY. IN SPITE OF NOT DEVELOPING PRECIP...12Z NAM APPEARS TO ERRONEOUSLY ERODE MID LEVEL CAP /WITH CORRESPONDING NEGLIGIBLE CINH/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL TX DUE TO BMJ ADJUSTMENT SCHEME. ACCORDINGLY 15Z RUC/09Z NAMKF DEPICT A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...THUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ..GUYER/HART.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 4 19:41:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 14:41:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504041939.j34JdotU001550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041936 SWODY1 SPC AC 041934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT MON APR 04 2005 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT 35 SE IWD 55 SSE DLH 30 NE BRD 10 NE BJI 20 W RRT ...CONT... 75 NW ISN 40 E DIK 45 N 9V9 45 SSW EAR 35 N GCK 35 ENE CAO 45 ESE LVS 50 NW ONM 30 NE SOW 15 N IGM 40 ESE TPH 70 WNW OWY 45 S MSO 40 NNW HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST/ROCKIES... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS/ROCKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED ASCENT AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATER IN THE EVENING. ...UPPER MS VLY... HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY AREAS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHING THE WARM FRONT FORMING NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER DARK...LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AND IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY. RESULTANT LIFT AND CONTINUED FEED OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES INTO THIS REGION COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO THE U.P. OF MI THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY... INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..CARBIN.. 04/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 04:53:14 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2005 23:53:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504070451.j374pxvg003354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070450 SWODY1 SPC AC 070448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 70 SE MEI 35 SSW TCL 45 N TCL 15 SSE HSV 25 NW RMG 25 WNW AHN 25 SE AND 40 SSE SPA 40 SE CLT 20 N SOP 20 WSW RWI 35 E GSB 35 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 35 SSW BPI 10 NNW BCE 50 WSW SGU 45 SSW MER 25 SW SJC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW MOB 25 ENE ESF 20 SE PGO 25 NNW FSM 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW IND 30 W EEN 25 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SERN U.S... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NWRN AZ WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ESEWD AND INTO GA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER...AND WILL MOVE FROM NEAR MEMPHIS BY EARLY THURSDAY INTO NRN GA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER. A 40-45 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTING FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND GA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD TO ERN NC BY TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TRANSPORT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AL...GA AND PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR NWD DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING MCS CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF GA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SRN END OF AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS FROM PARTS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST. MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-DAY. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NRN FL INTO GA...AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG SRN END OF MCS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTS INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN DRY SLOT REGION IN WAKE OF THE MCS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN AL AND GA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AS STORMS REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ...MIDDLE TN AND KY... OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND KY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 12:57:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 07:57:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504071256.j37CuSc6031282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071254 SWODY1 SPC AC 071252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 25 SSE BHM 45 NE MSL 50 N CSV 30 ENE TYS 15 NNE AND 40 SSE SPA 35 WSW SOP RDU 45 N EWN 20 SW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 35 SSW BPI 10 NNW BCE 50 WSW SGU 45 SSW MER 25 SW SJC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 25 ENE ESF 30 S PGO 15 NE MKO 10 NE JLN 15 SW JHW 15 W GFL 25 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NOW NEAR MEM SHOULD CONTINUE SLIGHTLY S OF E THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING N GA BY 12Z FRIDAY. MID/UPR LEVEL SPEED MAX IN SWRN QUADRANT OF LOW...NOW CROSSING THE UPPER TX GULF CST...SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN GULF LATER TODAY AND REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/WRN ATLANTIC TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ...SC/GA/FL... EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN SC SSW INTO THE NERN GULF...AN AMALGAM OF STORMS FROM THE LAST TWO DAYS...WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SC/GA AND N FL LATER TODAY AS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH TN VLY LOW SPREAD EWD. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP SHEAR PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IS NOT PURELY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD BE PRESENT TO BOOST AVERAGE MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. THUS...A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS. A LIMITED THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES AS DECIDED SLY COMPONENT TO NEAR-SURFACE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET. SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL FL LATER TODAY...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SOMEWHAT GREATER. COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...THIS MAY SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF SRN END OF SQUALL LINE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM W OF TPA. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. FAIRLY LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS /40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR AND UP TO 200 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...CNTRL/NRN AL INTO GA... MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT OF UPPER LOW IN WAKE OF SC/GA/N FL SQUALL LINE. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED RELATIVE TO POINTS S AND E...AMPLE /30 TO 40 KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/ POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE MID LEVEL RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE IN SHORT BANDS INVOF WEAK COLD FRONT/EWD-MOVING SURFACE LOW. ...MIDDLE TN AND KY... OTHER MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER N OVER MIDDLE TN AND KY...N OF UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WEAK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 15:49:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 10:49:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504071548.j37FmBVN023239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071543 SWODY1 SPC AC 071541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 35 SSW HSV 40 S CKV 15 SSE BWG 10 SSW LOZ 15 NNE AND 20 N CAE 25 WNW SOP RDU 45 W ECG 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN 20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 25 NNE DRA 55 NNW NID 15 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PNS 55 NNW CEW 35 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND 25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL... SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN TWO REGIMES TODAY...FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWWD TO OFF THE NW FL COAST. SECOND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECEED STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANY PRIMARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE SERN COASTLINE TONIGHT. ...ERN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS... THOUGH NRN END OF CURRENT SQUALL LINE HAS WEAKENED AND 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERSION LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING LINE INTO SERN SC/SERN GA THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON...FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. IN ADDITION... LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES. THIS MAY OFFSET MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/MLCAPES AND SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS LINE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ...FL... SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE PREVALENT WITH TRAILING PORTION OF SQUALL LINE AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AND WILL AID DESTABILIZATION AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE COMPONENT OF NEWD STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO ESEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS MAY KEEP MANY OF THE STORMS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND INHIBIT WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OR TURN RIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT SPEED TO MOVE INTO WARM SECTOR...THEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AS SURFACE T-TD SPREADS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 DEGREES. AS COLD FRONT SURGES SSEWD LATER TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF FL OVERNIGHT. STRENGTH OF SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ...ERN AL/WRN GA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN AL AND WRN GA. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MESO-SCALE ANALYSES SUPPORT THIS WITH CLEARING AND LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING IN PLACE. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN AND POSSIBLY SERN KY UNDER VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN AL/GA AND POSSIBLY THE FL PANHANDLE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 7 19:50:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 14:50:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504071949.j37JnWpS002539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071943 SWODY1 SPC AC 071941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABY 40 SSW CSG 20 WNW AUO 30 ESE HSV 35 SW BNA 30 E CKV 50 E BWG 30 SSE LOZ 20 W GSP 10 WSW AGS 65 ESE MCN 60 NW AYS ABY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRE 35 NE FLO SOP 10 SSW RDU 50 ENE RWI 25 E ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 30 SSE VRB 40 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN 20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 45 W DRA 30 ESE FAT 15 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PNS 60 N PNS 25 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND 25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC... ...FL... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN FL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN NRN FL AHEAD OF THE LINE SHOWS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LINE ORGANIZED AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EVENING. ...ERN NC... A THIN LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS ERN NC SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FAST MOVING BOW SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE LINE MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN MS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. AN INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN AL AND WRN GA EXTENDING NWWD INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE SBCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/07/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 01:11:58 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 20:11:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504080110.j381AhHV009259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080108 SWODY1 SPC AC 080106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SRQ 10 NW AGR 30 N MLB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SPA AGS 70 ESE MCN 35 ENE ABY 35 SE CSG 25 ESE LGC 15 W AHN 30 NW AND 10 WNW GSP 30 SSE SPA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 45 E HLN 30 S JAC 10 E SLC 30 WNW MLF 60 S TPH 30 NNW FAT 15 SSW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 15 N MAI 15 ENE MGM 20 NNE MEI 15 NE GWO 20 WNW MEM 20 NNW DYR 45 WSW OWB 20 SE BMG 20 E DAY 40 WSW MGW 40 NNE HGR 35 NNE AVP 20 NNE POU 15 ENE BDR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF GA INTO WRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN FL... ...GA THROUGH WRN SC... UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NW AL/SW MIDDLE TN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WITH ONE SUCH MAXIMUM NOW MOVING THROUGH AL/GA. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM AL...GA INTO TN. THE STRONGEST STORMS EXTEND FROM CNTRL GA INTO EXTREME WRN SC WHERE A RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS UNDERNEATH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...SRN FL... A SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF FL AND EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF MELBOURNE SWWD TO NEAR FORT MYERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MIAMI SHOWS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE LINE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LINE CONTINUES SWD OVERNIGHT. ...NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA... ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAX ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO NRN FL/SRN GA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA WHERE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WILL KEEP LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS AND SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS. ..DIAL.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 04:43:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Apr 2005 23:43:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504080442.j384gaB4020905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080438 SWODY1 SPC AC 080436 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CDT THU APR 07 2005 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 20 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AST 55 NE SUN 50 W COD 20 SW GDV 40 SE P24 30 NE PIR 40 E MCK 30 NNW LBL 15 SW RTN 70 ESE PGA 15 NW P38 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 20 WNW DHN 40 SSW BNA 55 W LOZ 25 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME SRN FL... ...GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AL WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD FRIDAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 WILL RESIDE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SURFACE HEATING WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...LEAVING RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. ...FL... SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH SRN FL AND MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME S FL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE LATER INTO THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND WEAKENS DURING THE DAY AS DRY SLOT SPREADS EWD ACROSS FL. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE PENINSULA. GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR INITIATION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ABOVE DEEP...DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 12:51:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 07:51:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504081250.j38CoVKm018346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081248 SWODY1 SPC AC 081246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 20 WNW DHN 40 SSW BNA 35 SSE LEX 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE AST 55 NE SUN 50 W COD 20 SW GDV 35 E DIK 30 NW VTN 30 WSW MCK 25 ESE LAA 15 SW RTN 70 ESE PGA 20 NW SCK 30 W UKI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... A VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED LOW OVER GA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME...RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 55-60 F WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-100O J/KG TODAY ACROSS FL/GA/THE CAROLINAS. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION LINGERS ACROSS S FL THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FARTHER NW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS S FL...INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BEEN REDUCED OVER ALL BUT THE KEYS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AND EXTREME S FL. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING NRN CA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS EJECTING SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS OF ONLY 28-32 F INVOF THE LEE TROUGH. STILL...SOME WEAK HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO NWD INTO WRN NEB AND SE WY THIS EVENING...WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES AND 30-40 KT FLOW WITHIN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 16:37:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 11:37:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504081635.j38GZnOL031593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 15 ESE TLH 25 ENE RMG 15 WNW 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 35 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FMY 10 ESE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FMY 10 ESE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 NNW LHX 50 NNW LVS 35 WSW FMN 30 WNW U17 30 W PUC 50 NNE EVW 40 NW COD 25 NNE 4BQ 35 NE RAP 60 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EXTREME SRN FL / KEYS... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 65-72 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA OF FL AS OF LATE MORNING BUT THESE VALUES WILL DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AND INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS EWD. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS ENDING FROM W TO E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. ...ERN GA / CAROLINAS... WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. POCKETS OF HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEAR 60. WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION. ...ERN UT INTO SERN WY / NRN CO... A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE WRN TROUGH WILL SWING NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED...BUT ENOUGH MAY EXIST TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND DRY / DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. ..JEWELL / EVANS.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 19:42:13 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 14:42:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504081941.j38JewTX012585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081937 SWODY1 SPC AC 081936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:09:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:09:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504082208.j38M8QIm014861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082204 SWODY1 SPC AC 082202 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0502 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD SEE TEXT TO NRN CA ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN CA... STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS...REF MCD 527. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:13:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:13:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504082211.j38MBj55017283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082209 SWODY1 SPC AC 082207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0507 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NNW BIH 35 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD SEE TEXT TO NRN CA ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN CA... STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS...REF MCD 527. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 8 22:32:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 17:32:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504082231.j38MV7kk031150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082228 SWODY1 SPC AC 082226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0526 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2005 VALID 082202Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW DAB 20 ESE TLH 10 NNE CSG 20 WNW TYS 20 NE 5I3 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 15 SE LMT 95 E 4LW 45 ENE EKO 20 WNW ELY 25 NE TPH 30 NW BIH 15 SW SCK 50 NW SFO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FMN 30 SSW 4BL 45 WNW PUC 45 ENE MLD 20 NW COD 40 NNW SHR 20 E 4BQ 35 NNE RAP 65 WNW VTN 30 WSW MHN 25 W IML 30 SW LHX 45 NE 4SL 20 S FMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMENDED TO ADD SEE TEXT TO NRN CA ...ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING HAS CAUSED MODEST DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE LOW WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP NEAR THE UPPER-LOW...COLD AIR ALOFT EXISTS NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -18 C. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH. ...ROCKIES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING EWD THROUGH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN CA... STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALLY BACKED. THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS...REF MCD 527. ..BROYLES.. 04/08/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 01:03:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2005 20:03:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504160102.j3G12ErI015069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160100 SWODY1 SPC AC 160058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 60 W ONM 4SL 35 NNW ALS COS GLD LBF BKX MSP LSE CID P28 CSM LBB INK 25 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS FOR REMAINDER PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM NRN QUE SWWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO NRN MEX. RELATIVELY ACTIVE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PATTERN EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WITH LEAD TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGE POSITION OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATION OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN MANITOBA TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES...SFC FRONTOLYSIS IS EXPECTED OVER MN. HOWEVER...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL REMAIN SHARPLY DEFINED WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT...FROM ERN NEB SWWD ACROSS SWRN KS/SERN CO TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL NM. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN BETWEEN SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS IS NOT GENERATING ENOUGH LARGE SCALE DVM TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION GENERATED BY FAR MORE INTENSE OROGRAPHICALLY/THERMALLY FORCED LIFT IN BOUNDARY LAYER. ...SRN ROCKIES TO CENTRAL PLAINS... AFTERNOON TSTMS THAT INITIATED OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF NRN NM...AND SURROUNDING ELEVATED TERRAIN...IS LOOSELY ORGANIZING INTO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MCS THAT SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE FROM NOW THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD BECAUSE OF LOSS OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING...PRIND FORCING ALONG FORWARD-PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN COMPLEX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING WITH SOME NEW GENERATION OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8-9 DEG C/KM -- PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND INTERPOLATED AMA/ABQ RAOBS -- SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN BUOYANCY FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK -- I.E. 10-20 KT THROUGH MOST OF 700-500 MB LAYER -- STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING AND 20-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW RESULTS IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH STORM ROTATION TO GENERATE HAIL. SOME GUSTS MAY APCH SEVERE LIMITS ALSO...WHILE DESCENDING THROUGH WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z BECAUSE OF WEAKENING CAPE...COOLING INFLOW LAYER AND INCREASINGLY CLUSTERED/MERGING STORM MORPHOLOGIES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEWD TOWARD SUX/FSD REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT INVOF SFC QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG...ROOTED PRIMARILY IN 650-800 MB LAYER. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS KS/NEB WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED BY WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ. ..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 04:49:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Apr 2005 23:49:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504160447.j3G4lIUg014987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160445 SWODY1 SPC AC 160443 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 40 S SAD 45 WNW SAD 25 NW INW 35 NE U17 DGW BKX 50 NNW EAU OSH 30 E RFD MMO IRK 50 W CNU LTS 40 NE FST 20 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...DESPITE PERSISTENT MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NEWD TO ERN CANADA. NEXT IN SERIES OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM OVER CA/AZ BORDER REGION...SWD ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION DURING AFTERNOON...PROVIDING WEAK COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT OVER PORTIONS INTERIOR ROCKIES. PRECEDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BE OF LITTLE IMPEDIMENT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER FRONT RANGE/SANGRE DE CRISTO REGION...GIVEN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE LIFT AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ...SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER ERN FLANKS OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...MAIN FOCI BEING AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER ERN-MOST MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF N-CENTRAL/NERN NM AND CO. WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR...INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BE MOST DENSELY CONCENTRATED WHERE 1. RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL/NRN CO...AND/OR 2. OUTFLOW AIRMASS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED GROUND MOISTURE RESULTING FROM CURRENT ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE MCS IS ADVECTED UPSLOPE AND HEATED BETWEEN LVS AND RATON MESA. EXPECT SFC HEATING AND 40S F SFC DEW POINTS ALONG/S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 50S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 800-1200 J/KG. ONCE AGAIN...MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS REGION...WITH 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE FLOWS THROUGH 700-500 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL TURNING AND 15-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS ARE LIKELY IN LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOOPED HODOGRAPHS SUITABLE FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES IN EARLY/DISCRETE STORMS...AND PERHAPS SMALL BOWS WITH SUBSEQUENTLY MERGED/PROPAGATED CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT RIGHTWARD/SWD DEVIANCE OF STORM MOTION IS POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK MEAN WIND VECTORS BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED SLOW TRANSLATIONAL STORM SPEEDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN 21-03Z TIME FRAME. MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...TENDENCY TOWARD OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE AMIDST DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS...AND LACK OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING . MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND MINOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SUBSTANTIALLY IN LATE EVENING. KINEMATIC PROFILE OVER THIS AREA ALSO WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SERN WY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NEB DURING PERIOD...PROVIDING SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIURNAL HEATING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW 40S TO LOW 50S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 800-1200 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE FROM CENTRAL IA NEWD WHERE NRN STREAM HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTER...BUT COMBINATION OF CAPPING...WEAKER MOISTURE...AND SMALLER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOO CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 13:01:19 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 08:01:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504161259.j3GCxb4L010509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161257 SWODY1 SPC AC 161256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 40 S SAD 45 WNW SAD 25 NW INW 35 NE U17 DGW BKX 50 NNW EAU OSH 30 E RFD MMO IRK 50 W CNU LTS 40 NE FST 20 SSE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ENE ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS TEMPORARILY RETREATS NWD INTO SRN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A PATTERN SIMILAR THAT OBSERVED FRIDAY WILL PERSIST OVER THE RCKYS AND PLNS. WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER CNTRL/ERN NM. FARTHER N...FRONT WHICH SETTLED S INTO THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN N IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS/LEE TROUGHING IN MT/SASKATCHEWAN. ...NM/SRN CO... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM/SRN CO LATER TODAY AS AXIS OF RESIDUAL LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS DESTABILIZED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WEAK FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM ERN CO INTO NW KS. AVERAGE AFTERNOON MLCAPE SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT REGION. THUS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. BUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT BACKED AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER...ESPECIALLY IN NM...RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN DEEP SHEAR DESPITE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT... STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SLOW AND DOMINATED BY PROPAGATION. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED AND PROPENSITY FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD TRACK MAINLY E/ENE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ...FAR W TX... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SRN IMPULSE NOW NEARING ELP THAT IS NOT WELL DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE ENE LATER TODAY AND BEYOND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/ FAVORED REGION FOR OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. WHILE SUFFICIENT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN OVER REGION TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION... SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF IMPULSE MAY TEND TO DISCOURAGE/LIMIT DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. IF THE STORMS DO INDEED REDEVELOP...HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO MAY YIELD HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. ...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY... SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PERSIST INVOF FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB AND IA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS WEAK "MIDDLE STREAM' IMPULSE NOW OVER SD CONTINUES ENEWD. A FEW STORMS MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MINOR WIND DAMAGE AS WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL OR TWO. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BOOST MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE. BUT LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 16:06:11 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 11:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504161604.j3GG4SK2000556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161601 SWODY1 SPC AC 161559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 50 NW SAD 30 S INW 75 ESE PGA 15 WNW LAR 20 N CDR 10 WNW AXN 15 SSW RHI 10 S OSH 35 ESE RFD 40 N PIA 25 SE OTM 35 W EMP 30 NW CSM 15 WNW MAF 35 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS IS UNSEASONABLY WEAK AS THE PRIMARY POLAR JET REMAINS MOSTLY IN CANADA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO PAC NW. TAIL END OF STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND VERTICAL MOTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND SURFACE WAVE VICINITY SWRN MN. SURFACE RIDGING SRN PLAINS HAS SHIFTED A MARGINALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SELY FLOW FURTHER W THAN ON FRI INTO FAR SWRN TX AND CENTRAL NM. WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS AZ INTO NM TODAY WILL ENHANCE MID LEVEL SHEAR AND PROVIDE WEAK VERTICAL MOTION INTO NM. ...NCENTRAL U.S... CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING INTO SWRN MN SUPPORTED BY LIFT ON THE N SIDE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NWRN IA AND MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS. CURRENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR MID LEVEL ROTATION AS STORMS MOVE INTO SWRN MN. WITH COLD/STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN COMMON IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE SCENTRAL CANADA S/WV TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...SHEAR AND SUPPORT FOR CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...NM INTO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL SELYS HAVE SPREAD MOISTURE WELL WEST ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S WWD INTO CENTRAL NM...AIR MASS WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH RELATIVELY COLD/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C/KM...HAIL SHOULD BECOME COMMON IN MANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL. AND AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE EWD INTO HIGH PLAINS THERE COULD LOCALLY BE STRONG WINDS AS STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. ..HALES.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 16 19:28:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 14:28:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504161927.j3GJR9NB011942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161924 SWODY1 SPC AC 161923 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 45 S SOW 25 ENE INW 75 ESE PGA 40 ENE GUC 40 N LIC 30 SSW MCK 35 NE LBL AMA 40 NE HOB FST 35 E P07 40 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE EAU 15 NE AUW 30 ESE OSH 35 ESE RFD 35 W MMO 15 NNE BRL 20 SSE OTM 25 NNW LWD 55 NE OMA 25 SW SPW 30 SW RWF 35 NNE RWF 15 E STC 55 NNE MSP 55 NE EAU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ESELY AND IS SPILLING WEST OF THE NM DIVIDE OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER AZ AND BACKDOOR FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WWD AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NM AND SCNTRL CO. STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILERS /AZC-TCU-WSM/ SHOW 20-25 KT 0-6KM SHEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ABOUT A 10 KT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS 21-00Z. THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE FURTHER AND MOVE ENEWD INTO THE VLYS/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CELLS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLS...THOUGH ISOLD STORMS MAY TEND TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND REMAIN BACKED AND AIMED INTO NM. THUS...TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NCNTRL/CNTRL MOUNTAINS OF NM AND THEN MOVE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...OR TOWARD THE TX/OK/CO BORDERS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING ENEWD INTO SRN MN. TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OWING TO WEAKENING OF THE LLJ. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL TSTM AREA. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...HOWEVER...DIURNAL BACKING/ WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IS ACTING TO CREATE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THUS...THE RISK OF TSTMS HAVE DECREASED. ..RACY.. 04/16/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 00:54:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Apr 2005 19:54:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504170052.j3H0qWH6026290@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170032 SWODY1 SPC AC 170030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LWD 45 WNW BIE GRI 40 W OFK 25 NNW RWF 15 E STC 55 NE EAU 15 NE AUW 30 ESE OSH 35 ESE RFD 35 W MMO 15 NNE BRL 35 SSE OTM 40 SW LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 45 S SOW 25 ENE INW 60 S 4BL 50 ENE GUC 45 SW IML 35 S IML 35 SW MCK 40 SW HLC 45 NE GCK 35 NE LBL 40 NE HOB 15 SE INK 15 SE FST 35 E P07 40 NW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND WRN NM/FAR WRN TX... 00Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NM WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE ONGOING STORMS MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...ERN CO/FAR WRN KS/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE... A SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO AND FAR WRN KS WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. AS A DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHES THE AREA...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT IF CELLS CAN INITIATE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL IA... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS IA WITH A SFC LOW IN WRN IA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...A FEW CELL COULD INITIATE. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 05:46:30 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 00:46:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504170544.j3H5ilHG011123@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170542 SWODY1 SPC AC 170541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW INK 55 SE GDP 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 50 ENE LAA 25 NNW GCK 10 NNW DDC 40 S DDC 25 NNW GAG 35 NW BGS 30 SW MAF 35 SSW INK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 20 SW IWD 30 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 S MKE JXN 15 WSW TOL 35 NW DAY 30 SSE IND 25 WSW BRL 35 NNW IRK 20 ENE P35 45 SW JLN 30 N ADM 30 W BWD 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSW DMN 20 NW SVC 15 W 4BL 45 N GJT 45 E CAG 30 SSW BFF 45 SE RAP 45 SE REJ 25 SSW DIK 65 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 10 ENE 3TH 10 NNE S80 30 N BOI 60 W BOI 40 SSW RDM 15 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND NM MTNS... ...SRN PLAINS/NM MTNS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 50 TO 55 F. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS FAR ERN NM INTO WEST TX AND SW KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SPITE OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT. 21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE OK PANHANDLE SHOW TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 20 F WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND MAY HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. DUE TO THE PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SCNTRL KS AND NW OK BY LATE EVENING WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FARTHER EAST. ..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF A HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD IN RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE. ALTHOUGH HARD TO IDENTIFY AT THIS TIME...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT...MAY INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS IN THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...UPPER MIDWEST... CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS ERN NEB...IA AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING INSTABILITY BUT AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION. STILL...IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...MULTICELL STORMS THAT INITIATE COULD HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 13:03:04 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 08:03:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504171301.j3HD1JHj018047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171258 SWODY1 SPC AC 171257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 50 ENE LAA 25 NNW GCK 10 NNW DDC 40 SSE DDC GAG 45 SSW CDS 35 SSE BGS 30 SSE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E MTC 20 SE CLE 20 WSW HLG 35 WSW EKN 35 ESE 5I3 20 NE 5I3 15 E MIE 20 SSE SBN 40 WNW CGX 15 WNW MKE 45 ENE MKE 25 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 20 WNW SVC 15 W 4BL 45 N GJT 45 E CAG 30 SSW BFF 45 SE RAP 45 SE REJ 25 SSW DIK 65 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 10 ENE 3TH 10 NNE S80 30 N BOI 60 W BOI 40 SSW RDM 30 NNE OTH 20 NNE ONP 35 NW OLM CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ELO 20 WSW IWD 30 SW CWA 25 NNE LNR 25 S DBQ 30 S OTM 35 NNW IRK 20 ENE P35 45 SW JLN 30 N ADM 30 W BWD 25 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW NEARING THE WA/ORE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES SE INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN THE SRN BRANCH...SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A COMPLEX TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AZ NEWD INTO THE SRN RCKYS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD HEAD GENERALLY NE AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY...WITH THE LEAD PORTION REACHING N CNTRL KS/SRN NEB BY 12Z MONDAY. THE DATA ALSO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE MOVING E/NE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NRN BAJA/NW SONORA. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WA/ORE TROUGH HAS REACHED WRN MT...CNTRL ID AND THE NW CORNER OF NV. THE FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS TO A CNTRL ND/NRN UT AXIS BY MONDAY MORNING AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS E OF THE RCKYS. ...ERN NM/W TX NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLNS... STRENGTHENING OF LEE TROUGH E OF THE CNTRL/NRN RCKYS WILL RESULT IN A MORE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND WEAKER UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER MUCH OF ERN NM AND W TX TODAY RELATIVE TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. A RESIDUAL SELY COMPONENT WILL...HOWEVER ...PERSIST OVER FAR SW TX AND THE TRANSPECOS REGION. LEAD PORTION OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE CENTERED NEAR RTN ATTM AND SHOULD CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING/SURFACE HEATING IN ITS WAKE OVER ERN NM AND W TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER ERN AZ...CONTINUES ENEWD. SURFACE HEATING...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODEST/RECYCLED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S/ SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. 25+ KT W TO WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR BOTH HAIL AND HIGH WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTS GOOD COLD POOL POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL CLUSTERS THIS EVENING. WITH THE LLJ EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN ON PAST NIGHTS...THESE CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST LONGER INTO THE NIGHT AND MOVE FARTHER E/NE THAN WAS THE CASE ON SATURDAY...POSING A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND NEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS...NRN AND WRN OK AND NW TX. ...CNTRL/ERN NEB NNE INTO ERN DAKS/WRN IA/WRN MN... STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL TRANSPORT POCKET OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW PRESENT OVER THE LWR MO VLY NNEWD INTO VICINITY OF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE STRONG UPDRAFTS... WARRANTING AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR HAIL. BESIDES LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE. DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN WEAK...THUS SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ATTM. ...NRN INTERMTN REGION... A BAND OR TWO OF ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL THUNDER MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ID...WRN AND CNTRL MT AND PERHAPS FAR NW WY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 16:26:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 11:26:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504171624.j3HGOGX9007598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171617 SWODY1 SPC AC 171615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 30 SW MCK 35 NNE HLC 25 WSW RSL 35 ESE DDC 35 ENE GAG 45 SSW CDS 35 SSE BGS 30 SSE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE RRT 30 ENE AXN STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 70 NNW SVC 40 W FMN 25 NW MTJ 20 N EGE CYS 55 NW CDR 25 SW REJ 45 ESE GDV 60 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE COLD TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO PAC NW...A WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM CO/NRN NM INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND THE ACARS WINDS WITH A VORT MAX VICINITY ALS ATTM. A 30 PLUS KT LLJ THAT EXTENDS FROM LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD THRU SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN KS IS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT A STEADILY INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. ATOP THIS MOISTURE THERE PERSISTS AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM. CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF CENTRAL ROCKIES S/WV TROUGH SHOULD THIN AND/OR DISSIPATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WRN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLE AREAS WITH LITTLE CIN REMAINING AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGH PLAINS VICINITY OF CO/KS BORDER SUPPORTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT REMAINS MARGINAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR UP TO 20KT WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH BASED ROTATING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AS WELL AS LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS GIVEN EXPECTED 30F T/TD SPREADS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD AND BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. FURTHER S INTO ERN NM/WRN TX STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND DRIFT EWD INTO WRN TX THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE BUT CAPPING COULD BE MORE OF A DETERRENT TO DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GREATER AMOUNT OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO SLOW HEATING AND A LITTLE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WILL BE LINKED TO PERSISTENT SLY LLJ THRU WRN TX. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WRN DAKOTAS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO 80S APPROACHING 90F WRN SD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY THREAT AREA WILL BE WCENTRAL SD ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE MUCAPES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG SD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30KT EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY REQUIRE A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 17 19:54:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 14:54:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504171952.j3HJqHSC010345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171948 SWODY1 SPC AC 171947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 ESE ALM 60 ENE 4CR 50 SSE RTN 40 NNE LAA 10 NW AKO 55 SE RAP 40 E REJ 40 NW PIR 35 NNE VTN 45 NNE HLC 25 WSW RSL 35 ESE DDC 50 NNE GAG 40 ENE PVW 20 W BGS FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE RRT 30 ENE AXN STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 75 NNW SVC DRO 20 WNW EGE CYS 35 NNW CDR 15 ENE REJ 45 ESE GDV 60 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH NERN NM/CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BENEATH THIS FEATURE...ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER VCNTY KPUB. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDING N-S FROM SWRN NEB TO NERN NM. TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM MOUNTAINS IN THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSE A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP VCNTY THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TO BE STRONGER. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...THOUGH...BECOME SLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH LITTLE FLOW EAST OF THE VORT MAX. THUS...STORMS MAY TEND TO PULSE AND NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. BUT...STRONGER CELLS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE VORT MAX FROM NERN/ECNTRL CO INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN/WCNTRL KS. FOR MORE INFO...SEE MCD #575. ...FAR SRN HIGH PLAINS... SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NCNTRL NM CONTINUES TO GRAZE SERN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE WARMING WEST OF KELP PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT FARTHER EAST...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW-MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS WILL BE GETTING PARCELS WARM ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS AND MAY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL...SHOULD STORMS INDEED SURVIVE. THUS... WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK INTO SERN NM/FAR W TX THROUGH THE EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE WRN DAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SWRN ND. AT THE SAME TIME...DRY WLY FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A MT SURFACE LOW HAS MIXED EWD PAST KRAP AND INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PNHDL. RECENT VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL SD/NCNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO BRING THE RISK OF TSTM INITIATION BETWEEN 21-23Z. FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK IN THE COLUMN AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY UNDER 25 KTS. BUT...LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP AND MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEAK KINEMATIC FIELDS. THUS...GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THREATS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FARTHER N TO INCLUDE SWRN/SCNTRL SD AND WRN NEB. FOR MORE INFO...SEE MCD #574. ..RACY.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 00:49:43 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Apr 2005 19:49:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504180100.j3I108IR018512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180057 SWODY1 SPC AC 180055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W FST 45 SSE GDP 20 NW GDP 30 WNW ROW 55 SE LVS 15 ESE CAO 20 WNW LBL 10 SSW GCK 45 NW GCK 40 WSW GLD 45 WNW GLD 40 NNW GLD 35 ENE HLC 15 WNW SLN 20 S HUT 55 SSW P28 35 SW LBB 20 N FST 40 W FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TRI 15 SSW JKL 35 NE LEX 25 E LUK 20 SE CMH 25 E PKB 30 WSW EKN 20 WNW LYH 35 W DAN 50 SW PSK 25 NNE TRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 35 NW ONM 35 SSE FMN 15 SE MTJ 45 NNE CYS 35 N CDR 55 N REJ 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... RRT 35 ENE AXN 30 WNW MSP 35 SSW LSE 25 SSW DBQ 40 S CID 40 E LWD STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WRN KS EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS NE NM WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S F WHICH IS RESULTING IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN SERN NM AND FAR WRN KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. THE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO CNTRL KS...NW OK AND WEST TX THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN SD TO NE IA. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WEAK ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING ASCENT...ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 05:50:07 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 00:50:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504180600.j3I60VPa026971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W SJT 35 S BGS 20 NW LBB 40 ENE DHT 30 SE BBW 15 NNE FSD 20 NNE FRM 20 NNE MCW 20 SW ALO 35 SE DSM 30 WSW OJC 35 S EMP 30 SE END SPS 40 ENE SJT 25 W SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 30 S HOB 30 SSE LAA 40 E AKO 25 NE LAR 40 NW RWL 45 NW RKS 20 ENE U28 25 NW 4HV 40 NNE BCE CDC 10 NE P38 70 WNW P38 45 NW TPH 60 S NFL 30 ENE TVL 35 WNW RNO 15 SSE SVE 15 E SVE 50 NW LOL 25 NNE LOL 35 S BAM 55 S EKO 35 SSW ENV 25 NNW ENV 20 NW OWY 50 SW BNO 45 NNE MFR 50 NNE 4BK 30 SW OTH ...CONT... 30 NW HVR 30 SSE HVR 15 S LWT 35 N BIL 65 ENE BIL 50 E MLS 10 SW P24 60 N DVL ...CONT... 75 ESE ANJ 40 WNW PLN 20 WNW TVC 25 SSE HTL 25 NW MTC CLE 20 N HLG 15 E EKN 25 WSW SHD 10 WSW ROA 25 SSW PSK 40 E TRI 45 SSE JKL 40 NE SDF 20 SW BMG 30 ENE ALN 25 ESE TBN 10 ENE FYV 35 ENE DAL 30 W CLL 15 S NIR 50 SW ALI 40 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING CONVECTION WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND KS. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL KS. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE UPPER-TROUGH AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SE NEB WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL KS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS WRN IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...CONVECTION COULD GENERATE A COLD POOL AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN THE EVENING HOURS. IF A LINEAR MCS CAN GENERATE...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS ERN NEB...WRN IA AND FAR SWRN MN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS ACROSS WCNTRL TX AFTER DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID-DAY...PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF A DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...CELLS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/M. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS THAT BOW OUT IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...WY/SD/ND/MN... AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING SWWD INTO WY TODAY. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AT 21Z SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NRN MN..SE ND AND CNTRL SD. A MARGINAL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WY WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ..BROYLES.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 12:38:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 07:38:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504181249.j3ICnIHU028282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181247 SWODY1 SPC AC 181245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SJT 15 SE MAF 30 W PVW 15 E EHA 50 NNE HLC 20 ENE BUB FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 15 SW ICT 30 SSW END 15 N SPS 45 ENE SJT 35 SW SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 40 WNW PLN 20 WNW TVC 25 SSE HTL 25 NW MTC 10 SSE CLE 15 WSW PIT 20 ESE EKN 25 WSW SHD 10 WSW ROA 25 SSW PSK 40 E TRI 45 SSE JKL 40 NE SDF 20 SW BMG 30 ENE ALN 30 S STL 45 SSE VIH 30 ENE FYV 40 SW PRX 50 SE AUS 25 SSW CRP 50 SSW ALI 40 S LRD ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 30 N HOB 30 SSE LAA 40 E AKO 25 NE LAR 40 NW RWL 45 NW RKS 20 ENE U28 25 NW 4HV 40 NNE BCE CDC 10 NE P38 70 WNW P38 45 NW TPH 60 S NFL 30 ENE TVL 35 WNW RNO 15 SSE SVE 15 E SVE 50 NW LOL 25 NNE LOL 35 S BAM 55 S EKO 35 SSW ENV 25 NNW ENV 20 NW OWY 50 SW BNO 45 NNE MFR 50 NNE 4BK 30 SW OTH ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 40 SE HVR 50 ENE HLN 15 SW LVM 55 W 4BQ 50 E MLS 10 SW P24 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NOSING N INTO THE GULF OF AK ATTM...SUGGESTING THAT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NOW SETTLING INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NV BY 12Z TUESDAY. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN AN IMPORTANT FACTOR GOVERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS. LEAD PORTION OF COMPLEX SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITHIN THIS FLOW...NOW OVER N CNTRL KS/SRN NEB...SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD TODAY AND REACH ERN IA EARLY TUESDAY. SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN THE SRN BRANCH OVER NM/AZ...AS ARE IMPULSES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AT LOWER LEVELS...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLNS AND INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MO/UPR MS VLYS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN TROUGH SHOULD SETTLE SE ACROSS ND/MN IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM SPEED MAX TRACKING E ACROSS MANITOBA. ...SRN HI PLNS... CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER THE SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN W TX...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RELATIVE TO POINTS A BIT FARTHER N AS A RESULT OF STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR MAIN AXIS OF SRN STREAM JET. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION WILL HAVE ACCESS TO SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S/ AND WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM ZONE OF STRONGEST POST-IMPULSE SUBSIDENCE THAT MAY AFFECT PARTS OF KS. COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES SHOULD BOOST MEAN AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 25-30 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ONCE AGAIN MERGE INTO A SHORT BAND OR TWO OF FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS THAT WOULD EXTEND A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SEVERE EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW TX. ...SW/S CNTRL TX... THUNDERSTORMS NOW PRESENT OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND BIG BEND REGION APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK...MODERATELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD/REDEVELOP E INTO PARTS OF S CNTRL TX LATER TODAY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES EWD. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES WITH E/SEWD EXTENT...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. LIMITED DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE. ...CNTRL PLNS TO MID/LWR MO VLY... A BAND OF FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN KS/SRN NEB VORT MAX WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY TODAY. BACKING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN DEEP SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. A BAND OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE AND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANY UPPER VORT...AND EMBEDDED CELLS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. BUT COMBINATION OF MODEST...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND LIMITED SBCAPE /LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG/ SUGGEST THAT THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM OVER NRN KS AND/OR SRN NEB...AS SURFACE HEATING UPSTREAM PROMOTES SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ON SWRN EDGE OF VORT-INDUCED PRECIPITATION AREA. DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SBCAPE /AROUND 2000 J PER KG/ AND DEEP SHEAR /35+ KTS/ WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER... SOME DOUBT EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT POST-VORT MAX SUBSIDENCE WILL IN FACT PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT. MORE LIKELY...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT IN A NEW ROUND OF STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE VORT TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD POOL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD SEVERE HAIL OVER SRN/ERN NEB AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR NRN KS/NW MO AND WRN IA GIVEN STRENGTH OF MASS FLUX AND DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE /LIKELY ABOVE 500 J PER KG/. PATTERN MAY ALSO SUPPORT ECHO TRAINING/UPWIND DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. ...ND/NRN MN... CAPPING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING ND/MN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. STORMS...HOWEVER...COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT AS ENTRANCE REGION OF MANITOBA SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS AREA. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL EXIST FOR HAIL IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DO FORM. BUT GIVEN THAT BULK OF LLJ MAX INFLUX WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY SRN STREAM VORT OVER ERN NEB/IA...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IN ND/MN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 15:46:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 10:46:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504181557.j3IFv5Dl010873@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181552 SWODY1 SPC AC 181550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SJT 15 SE MAF 30 W PVW 15 E EHA 50 NNE HLC 20 ENE BUB FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 15 SW ICT 30 SSW END 15 N SPS 45 ENE SJT 35 SW SJT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA 50 SW MSO 45 N SUN 40 WNW IDA 25 S 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 20 NE APN 10 NE FNT 25 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 E BMG 40 NW DNV 30 N SPI 65 N POF 35 ESE MLC 50 SE AUS 40 S LRD ...CONT... 25 ESE ELP 25 NNE HOB 30 SSE LAA 45 SE AKO 20 E CYS 45 WSW LAR 50 W EGE 25 WSW 4HV 50 WSW P38 30 ENE TVL 30 SSW OTH ...CONT... 10 SSW AST BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE COMPACT MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEWD OUT OF CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CURRENT POSITION ALONG KS/NEB BORDER SW OF GRI. 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS FROM LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD THRU WRN TX/OK INTO CENTRAL KS...RESULTING IN A STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB/SWRN IA... PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER VORT/TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING NEWD TO ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA THIS EVENING AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. BY MID AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD RAISE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S WHICH COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY...MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN CORNER OF NEB. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT IN THE LOWER RANGE FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SFC TO 1 KM OF 25-30KT SUPPORTS ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NERN KS INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED INITIATION IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORT MAX. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY. ...NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS... DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CENTRAL KS SWWD THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AS AREA IN THE WAKE OF VORT TO THE E...AND STILL SOME POTENTIAL CAPPING... THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WRN TX...WHICH COULD DELAY STORM INITIATION AS WELL AS COVERAGE. AGAIN LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT GIVEN LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 18 19:36:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 14:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504181946.j3IJkcfL010035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181944 SWODY1 SPC AC 181943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE LBB 30 SSE BGS 60 NE P07 30 S FST 40 WNW FST 35 SE CVS 35 ENE CAO 35 S HSI 60 WSW YKN FSD 25 NNW FRM 20 NNE MCW 25 NW CID 20 NW IRK MKC 10 SSW HUT GAG 40 NW CDS 40 ESE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N FCA 50 SW MSO 45 N SUN 40 WNW IDA 25 S 4BQ 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 20 NE APN 10 NE FNT 25 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 E BMG 40 NW DNV 30 N SPI 65 N POF 35 ESE MLC 50 SE AUS 40 S LRD ...CONT... 25 ESE ELP 35 SSE RTN 10 ESE LAA 45 SE AKO 20 E CYS 45 WSW LAR 50 W EGE 25 WSW 4HV 50 WSW P38 30 ENE TVL 30 SSW OTH ...CONT... 10 SSW AST BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN IA...ACROSS CENTRAL KS...INTO WEST TX... ...NEB/IA/NERN KS... AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEB. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA DURING THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR THE MO RIVER. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE A RISK OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WESTERN IA AFTER DARK BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. EXTENT OF SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHEAST KS IS MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST KS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. ...CENTRAL KS INTO WEST TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY FOCUSING FROM CENTRAL KS...ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...TO WEST OF MAF. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. ..HART.. 04/18/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 00:52:18 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 19:52:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504190102.j3J12dg7011437@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190100 SWODY1 SPC AC 190058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON APR 18 2005 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SLN 20 WNW SLN 25 NW CNK 35 W LNK 25 WSW SPW 10 S FRM 30 NNW MCW 25 NNW ALO 30 SW CID 30 SSW OTM 30 S MHK 30 ESE SLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE LBB 35 WNW LBB 40 WSW AMA 20 NNE LBL 10 SW DDC 40 NW P28 20 SSE P28 45 W OKC 60 SSE CDS 10 SE LBB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 15 NE INK 45 ESE TCC 25 W GCK 50 ESE GLD 20 ENE IML 15 S BFF 40 ESE BPI 20 E JAC 55 NW COD 15 SSW MLS 45 WNW MOT 50 N MOT ...CONT... 55 NNE APN 25 E FNT 15 WNW PIT 10 NE EKN 10 N BKW 20 N 5I3 40 E BMG CMI 35 E UIN 30 WSW JEF 10 ENE FYV 40 NW TYR 35 NW NIR 10 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 65 SSW MSO 20 E BOI 80 N WMC 65 E 4LW 45 NE 4LW 45 N RDM 30 NW DLS 65 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS IA AND NW MO WITH EXPANSION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE OOZ OMAHA SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS 19 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR BUT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR SE NEB AND NE KS. THE STRONGER SHEAR IS DUE TO A SMALL 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET SHOWN IN THE PROFILER DATA. THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE JET IN FAR SE NEB THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSIST WITH THE STORMS POSSIBLE AFFECTING SW IA AND FAR NW MO BY LATE EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...AN MCS WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... A LINEAR MCS APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTING BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT GOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD POSSIBLY REACHING FAR SW OK BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN ND. THIS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AS EVIDENT ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BY LATE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 05:49:29 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 00:49:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504190559.j3J5xovV003159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190557 SWODY1 SPC AC 190555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 25 WSW CYS BFF MHN 20 NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 35 E VOK 30 WSW OSH 30 NE JVL 40 SW RFD 20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 60 S CDS 40 SE CDS 30 S LTS SPS 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 NNE BGS 35 W CDS 10 SSW LBL 45 E LAA 40 SSE LIC 50 WNW COS 20 WNW MTJ U17 35 ENE DRA 55 E BIH 35 ENE TVL 55 NNW LOL 45 WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 20 ENE SHR 15 SE REJ 20 NW MBG FAR 40 ENE ELO ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS NEWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ASCENT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON...INITIATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE WY AND NERN CO WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE SPREADING NEWD INTO SW NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NERN IA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NEB SHOW INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NEB DUE TO THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN NEB SHOW 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WHICH SUGGESTS VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE BACKED NORTH OF A SFC LOW. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AND CNTRL IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SEWD INTO FAR NRN KS AND FAR NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...WCNTRL TX... A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WCNTRL TX TODAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE. AS SFC TEMPS WARM TODAY...THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE CELLS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 12:29:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 07:29:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504191240.j3JCe8Bv004996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191237 SWODY1 SPC AC 191236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 20 NW CYS 15 N AIA 15 WNW ANW 20 NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 40 SSE CWA 25 S MTW 40 SSE MKE 35 NW MMO 20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 60 S CDS 40 SE CDS 30 S LTS SPS 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... 35 SW P07 20 NNE BGS 35 W CDS 10 SSW LBL 45 E LAA 40 SSE LIC 50 WNW COS 20 WNW MTJ 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 25 NE MER 50 SE RBL 15 N SVE 45 WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 40 WNW GDV 35 SE ISN 45 ESE MOT DVL 70 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS TO THE MID MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN NV CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS N /WELL DEPICTED IN WV IMAGERY/ TEMPORARILY RESULTS IN DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK. A SPEED MAX NOW IN THE SWRN SECTOR OF THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP NE INTO ERN FLANK OF SYSTEM BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MAXIMA DROP S/SE INTO THE SRN GRT BASIN. FARTHER S...SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT SRN BRANCH JET HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED AND ORIENTED MORE SW/NE RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ENCROACHMENT OF GRT BASIN LOW. NEVERTHELESS...SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SRN BRANCH DOES PERSIST...AND A POSSIBLE IMPULSE IN THIS FLOW IS APPARENT ATTM OVER SW TX. ELSEWHERE...VORT WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE SRN RCKYS AND CNTRL PLNS DURING THE PAST 48 HRS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TURNS MORE EWD IN CONFLUENT WLY FLOW OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. AT LWR LEVELS...ERN PORTION OF NRN PLNS COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT... WHILE WRN PART NOSES S AT A FASTER RATE INTO ERN WY/WRN SD/NW NEB. ATTM...SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THE FRONT IN NEB/WY...WITH A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OFK TO NEAR OGA TO NEAR CYS. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO LWR MO VLY... A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND COLD FRONT CROSSING WY/SD AND NEB. THE FIRST SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER WRN NEB/SE WY...WHERE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING... INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION. A BIT LATER IN THE DAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EWD ALONG FRONT INTO ERN NEB AND IA...AND SWD INTO NE CO. THE MID/UPR FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST OVER THE REGION...WITH THE 500 MB FLOW RANGING FROM SSWLY AT 30 KTS IN NE CO/SE WY TO WSWLY AT 25 KTS IN ERN NEB. BUT THE RESULTING DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN SRN/WRN NEB WHERE FAIRLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BOOST SBCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. THIS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER E...SOMEWHAT GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD IN WAKE OF IA UPPER VORT MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS TO SUPPORT A LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND/HAIL THREAT IN IA. THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND MODEST WIND FIELDS SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED FLOW INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN SRN NEB...AND PERHAPS IN IA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SOLID BAND THAT DRIFTS SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS SRN NEB/IA AND PERHAPS INTO NE KS/NW MO TONIGHT. BUT WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING AS GRT BASIN LOW EDGES EWD...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL /ELEVATED/ ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN SD. ...ERN IA/SRN WI INTO NW IL/WRN LWR MI... SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /AOB 500 J PER KG/ OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS REGION TODAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM IA VORT. BUT IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR...FORCING BY THE DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW...MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS OVER ERN IA/SRN WI. IF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY DOES INDEED DEVELOP...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ...W CNTRL/NW TX... LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS W CNTRL AND NW TX TODAY. AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE FEATURE...A BIT MORE MOIST THAN IN PAST DAYS. THIS MOISTURE HAS...HOWEVER...TRANSLATED INTO SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER STRATOCU. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AT MID LEVELS RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. MODERATE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD...NEVERTHELESS...BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...WV LOOPS DO SHOW A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER SW TX DRIFTING ENEWD. BUT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED BEYOND THE DRY LINE BY MAX HEATING TIME. GIVEN THE ABOVE RESERVATIONS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE INITIATION OF DRY LINE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...HOWEVER... SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESPECTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 30+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 16:07:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 11:07:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504191618.j3JGIFwH018395@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191611 SWODY1 SPC AC 191610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 60 S CDS 40 WSW P28 25 SSE P28 20 SSW END 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 20 NW CYS 15 N AIA 15 WNW ANW 20 NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 40 SSE CWA 25 S MTW 40 SSE MKE 35 NW MMO 20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... 35 SW P07 15 NE BGS 25 WSW CDS 55 WSW GAG 20 SW GCK 45 SSE LIC 50 W COS 20 WNW MTJ 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 25 NE MER 50 SE RBL 15 N SVE 45 WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 25 SSW MLS 40 WSW P24 15 SSE GFK 35 NNW ELO ...CONT... 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN OK AND TX... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. E OF ROCKIES THE MID LEVEL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH MONDAYS SVR ERN NE NOW LOCATED ALONG MN/IA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT FLOW. WHILE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS MN INTO SWRN NE/NERN CO...A CONVECTIVE INDUCED BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NRN IA WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO NWRN CORNER OF KS. SWLY 30-40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY E OF DRY LINE FROM TX TO IA. THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MIX EWD THIS AFTERNOON TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD VICINITY TX/OK BORDER TO TX BIG BEND. ...IA/SRN WI/NRN IL... WHILE MID LEVEL VORT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO SRN WI TODAY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY/S OF THE E/W BOUNDARY IA/MN BORDER. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION IA INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL. 30-35KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT THIS AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN COOL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DIMINISHING SUPPORT FROM UPPER VORT. ...SRN NEB/NERN CO... BOUNDARIES/FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW/STALL ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SHARP FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG NERN CO TO 3000 J/KG SRN NEB. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...30KT OR LESS...THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AS WELL. SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/N OF BOUNDARY IN HIGHER ELEVATION UPSLOPE AREA OF NERN CO/ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB. STORMS THEN WILL DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB VICINITY E/W BOUNDARIES AND LIKELY CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT WELL AFTER DARK GIVEN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ...WRN OK/WRN TX... DRY LINE WILL MIX A LITTLE FURTHER E TODAY PER MODELS AS LLJ HAS VEERED TO MORE SWLY PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT ABLE TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON...EXAMINING POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP WILL WEAKEN ALONG DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A STEEP ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM ...AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS FORECASTED NWD TO KS BORDER AS MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE. NUMBER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO INITIATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 19:51:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 14:51:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504192002.j3JK23fZ016073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191955 SWODY1 SPC AC 191954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 35 N GLD 25 ESE AKO 10 N CYS BFF 45 N VTN MHE SPW 25 SSE FRM 10 WSW MCW 50 NNE ALO 40 NNW DBQ DBQ MLI 25 WSW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 SSE FST 50 SSE MAF 40 WNW SJT 35 WNW CDS 35 SSE LBL 10 E DDC P28 35 ESE CSM 10 NNW BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ILM AND TYS CKV PAH TBN SGF HOT ELD 10 SE MLU 30 ESE MCB 25 S GPT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 FST LBB 25 W AMA LAA ALS DRO 4BL 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 45 ENE MER 40 SE MHS 20 NNW 4LW BTM 3HT MLS DIK FAR 40 ENE ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR ITH AVP ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS.... SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN HAS SLOWED...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CIRCULATION IS PROGGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO/AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ...PLAINS... UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN LOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...NORTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...AND SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING. WITH FURTHER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND...AS WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW ENHANCES UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHILE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEARING OF IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY IS ONGOING...BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN NARROW BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME HAIL...PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...BUT MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME FOCUSED IN TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ALONG DRY LINE TODAY...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEL RIO TX...WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION. ..KERR.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 19 23:08:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 18:08:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504192319.j3JNJEhf027251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192316 SWODY1 SPC AC 192315 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 192315Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HLC 35 N GLD 25 ESE AKO 10 N CYS BFF 45 N VTN MHE SPW 25 SSE FRM 10 WSW MCW 50 NNE ALO 40 NNW DBQ DBQ MLI 25 WSW BRL P35 10 NE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 30 SSE FST 50 SSE MAF 40 WNW SJT 35 WNW CDS 35 SSE LBL 10 E DDC P28 35 ESE CSM 10 NNW BWD 30 NNE HDO 30 NE LRD 15 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR ITH AVP ACY ...CONT... 25 SW ILM AND TYS CKV PAH TBN SGF HOT ELD 10 SE MLU 30 ESE MCB 25 S GPT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 FST LBB 25 W AMA LAA ALS DRO 4BL 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 45 ENE MER 40 SE MHS 20 NNW 4LW BTM 3HT MLS DIK FAR 40 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... AMENDED FOR DEVELOPING STORMS MOVING TOWARD SW TX ...AMENDED TEXT... SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO SW TX AND POSE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...ORIGINAL OUTLOOK TEXT... SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN HAS SLOWED...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CIRCULATION IS PROGGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO/AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ...PLAINS... UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIFFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN LOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...NORTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...AND SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING. WITH FURTHER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SHEAR MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND...AS WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW ENHANCES UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHILE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... SHEARING OF IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY IS ONGOING...BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN NARROW BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME HAIL...PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...BUT MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME FOCUSED IN TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW REGIME. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ALONG DRY LINE TODAY...AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEL RIO TX...WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION. ..BROYLES.. 04/19/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 00:55:06 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2005 19:55:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504200105.j3K15Nda003589@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200102 SWODY1 SPC AC 200101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E MCK 25 E DEN 20 SSW FCL 25 WSW CYS BFF 50 W VTN 15 SSE FSD 40 E MCW 35 ESE ALO 15 N CID 20 NNW OTM 30 E MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... DRT 75 S CDS 25 N GAG 40 NNE GCK 15 S GLD 25 WSW LIC 30 WSW GJT 25 S U24 50 WSW U24 20 WSW ENV 35 SW TWF 15 SE SUN 30 ESE MQM 40 SE BIS 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW TVL 25 W SVE 45 SW 4LW 15 ESE 4LW 80 NW WMC 25 WNW LOL 15 ESE RNO 30 NNW TVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...NE CO/NEB/IA... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD FROM NE CO ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN IA. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN CO AND SW NEB LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS NE CO AND WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE BACKED SFC WINDS AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND THIS COULD PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTION. THE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. MODELS SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER EAST ACROSS IA...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL LATER TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...SW TX... ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...POSSIBLY DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...A RAPID WEAKENING IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS SW TX. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED. ..BROYLES.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 05:53:20 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 00:53:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504200603.j3K63bAJ014275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200600 SWODY1 SPC AC 200558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE IML 15 ENE AKO 35 SW SNY 25 SE BFF 30 E AIA 20 NNW BBW 10 NE EAR 30 S EAR 15 SSW MCK 35 SSE IML. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SLO 35 W STL 30 NNW COU 35 SSE P35 30 NE P35 OTM 35 NNW PIA 45 SW SBN TOL 30 NNW MFD 15 SSW MFD 10 SSW CMH 55 W LUK 30 E SLO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 35 WSW ABI 35 NW LTS 40 N CSM 40 SSW END 15 SSW OKC 10 NNE MWL 60 WNW AUS 30 WNW LRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE GLD 15 SSW DEN 50 E CAG 40 ENE RWL 25 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 10 SW OFK 40 S OMA 35 SSW FNB 25 SE CNK 20 ESE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW WAL 20 E LYH CSV 50 WNW CHA 40 NNW BHM 35 WSW 0A8 30 SE MOB ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF 45 S LBL 30 WNW GCK 35 NNE LAA 45 WSW COS 45 WSW MTJ 20 SSW U24 30 NNE ELY 40 SSE BAM 80 ESE 4LW BKE 3DU 35 SE GDV 40 N MBG 15 SW ABR 30 N OTG 20 NNW LSE 40 N GRB APN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NE CO...WRN NEB AND CNTRL NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND MID-MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB. SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NE CO AND SW NEB WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z WEDNESDAY IN SW NEB SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...A LINEAR MCS MAY DEVELOP...MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WHERE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. ...OH AND MID-MS VALLEY.. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN MO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IL...IND AND OH. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE STORMS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 60 + SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD HAVE A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. AS STABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD INITIATE A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 12:38:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 07:38:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504201249.j3KCnBvr016120@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201247 SWODY1 SPC AC 201245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GLD 10 WNW AKO 30 SE CYS 30 WSW BFF 10 NNE AIA 25 W MHN 10 NNW EAR 35 NNE HLC 40 N GLD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 30 E BGS 50 SSW GAG 30 ESE GAG 30 N FSI 55 S BWD 60 WSW COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BOS 25 WSW MSV 15 SSE PIT 20 WSW CMH 45 S HUF STL 15 ESE MKC 25 WSW ICT 30 ESE GLD 50 NNE LAA 15 S DEN 50 WSW LAR 50 SSE CPR 60 WSW RAP 20 SE PHP 40 NNE BUB 25 SSE OMA 30 WSW DSM 45 WSW ALO 30 SE MMO 25 WNW FDY 25 WNW FDY 15 NE CLE 35 N BUF 20 SSW BTV 20 SSW PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 25 WNW BGS 35 NNE AMA 45 ESE LBL 30 WNW GCK 25 ENE ALS 45 WSW MTJ 20 SSW U24 30 NNE ELY 40 SSE BAM 80 ESE 4LW BKE 3DU 35 SE GDV 40 N MBG 15 SW ABR 30 N OTG 25 W VOK 10 SSW MTW APN ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 20 E LYH CSV 50 WNW CHA 40 NNW BHM 35 WSW 0A8 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 45 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NE CO AND SW NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...MIDWEST AND OH VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NY/NRN PA AND NEW ENG... ...SYNOPSIS... NE NV UPR LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE...AND THEN N OR NNW... ACROSS NW UT AND SRN ID THIS PERIOD AS SYSTEM REMAINS PART OF REX BLOCK SETUP OVER THE PACIFIC NW. SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING BASE OF THE LOW OVER SRN NV/NW AZ SHOULD REDEVELOP NE INTO ERN CO BY 12Z THURSDAY. FARTHER S...WV DATA SUGGEST LINGERING PRESENCE OF AN ILL-DEFINED SRN BRANCH JET EXTENDING FROM NRN BAJA ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO SW TX. THIS BRANCH OF FLOW MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME AS UPR LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS BACKS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF NV/AZ IMPULSE. AT LWR LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST OVER NE CO/NW KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW...NOW IN WRN KS...MAY RETROGRESS INTO ERN CO FOR AWHILE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF NV/AZ SPEED MAX. FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW INTO THE LWR GRT LKS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SRN NEB...BUT WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE SEWD WITH INCREASING EWD EXTENT AS A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ...NE CO/WRN AND SW NEB... SEVERE WEATHER SETUP OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS EWD TO THE LWR MO VLY EXPECTED TO CLOSELY RESEMBLE YESTERDAY'S...EXCEPT THAT THE MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER CO/WY AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEB AND KS AS GRT BASIN SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE CNTRL RCKYS. COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE LWR PLNS... AND MOISTURE RECYCLED THROUGH OVERNIGHT MCSS IN NEB...SUGGEST THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J PER KG/ FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP N AND NE OF ERN CO SURFACE LOW BY AFTERNOON AS HEATING OCCURS BENEATH ALREADY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT SSWLY DEEP SHEAR..SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND IN MODERATE RISK AREA. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS STORMS CROSS AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VEERING N OF LOW AND/OR JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TEMPORAL BACKING OF MID AND UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...AND THE LINEAR FORCING THAT WILL EXIST WITH THE ASSOCIATED MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...DO CALL INTO QUESTION THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THAT WILL EXIST IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IN SHORT...WHILE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR ATTM THAT WILL INDEED BE THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN IF STORMS DO QUICKLY MERGE INTO SOME SORT OF AN MCS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE NEARBY ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM/MCS DEVELOPMENT. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...BOTH DIURNALLY AND IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF CO IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT MCS IN WRN/SW NEB WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ESE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEB AND/OR WILL BE JOINED BY NEW STORMS FORMING INVOF FRONT OVER S CNTRL NEB SEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND. ...MID MS VLY/MIDWEST... A WEAK MCV MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IN NEB...AND MAY IN PART BE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER IA. THE LLJ IN THE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE DAY. BUT FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NRN IL AND IND..AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST MODERATE SURFACE HEATING. COUPLED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...THIS MAY SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND. ...NRN PA/SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENG... DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM THE LWR GRT LKS E INTO SRN NEW ENG AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSED THE UPR MS VLY YESTERDAY BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP OVER THIS REGION AS THEY ARE FARTHER W ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BUT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE... NOW OVER WRN LK ERIE...HAVE SURVIVED THE NIGHT AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO HEATED DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PA/NY. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SE INTO NEW ENG. GIVEN THIS SETUP...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAIRLY LARGE AND WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE. ...TX/OK DRY LINE... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLNS. THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM NV/AZ IMPULSE OVER THIS REGION TODAY. BUT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED...SATELLITE LOOPS DO SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA THAT WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS E OF THE DRY LINE HAS MOISTENED SOME RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...AND SKIES ARE FREE OF LOW CLOUDS ATTM ACROSS NW TX/WRN OK. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 16:22:51 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 11:22:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504201633.j3KGX6L6024584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201630 SWODY1 SPC AC 201628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT CDS DDC 55 NNE GCK 20 NNE COS 50 SW LAR 45 SSW DGW 20 W CDR 25 ENE ANW 55 ESE SUX 30 E MMO TOL 25 NNE UCA 10 SW ALB 15 WSW POU 35 W ABE 20 ESE ZZV 45 N SDF 35 NNE JLN 40 NW BVO 65 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 WNW BGS 65 NNE AMA 20 E LBL 25 W GCK 15 ESE ALS 4BL 20 SSW U24 40 ENE ELY EKO 50 NNW OWY 65 N BOI 65 E S80 3DU 45 ESE GDV 40 NNW MBG 20 W ABR 30 E BKX 40 W LNR MKG 30 NE MBS ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 E LYH 20 E CSV 20 WNW CHA 15 ESE GAD 10 WNW DHN 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 S EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN UT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH NRN AZ/SRN UT INTO WRN CO. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE WERE MCV OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS PRESENT FROM BAJA EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX WITH AN APPARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS IN WAKE OF TSTM CLUSTER OVER IA/MO. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... GIVEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO...SEVERAL CONCERNS EXIST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX. WHILE SOME NWD EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...IT APPEARS THAT LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NWWD INTO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB/NEB PNHDL...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY MAY WELL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. NONETHELESS... SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRATUS OVER NERN CO...AS WELL AS OVER DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG DEVELOPING 40-45 KT LLJ AXIS WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. ...IA/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY... REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. THOUGH SWLY LLJ /PER 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS/ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...EVOLVING MCV COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY WELL SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON 12Z OAX SOUNDING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING... DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... A SECONDARY TSTM CLUSTER IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE INTO N-CNTRL OH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS PA/NY...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION EWD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP WLY FLOW/MODEST DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL/EWD ELONGATION OF SYSTEM COLD POOL WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF WRN/W-CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EMBEDDED IN PROGRESSIVE...SUBTROPICAL JET CHANNEL. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED...SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO INDICATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 18:16:17 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 13:16:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504201826.j3KIQWCn018377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201814 SWODY1 SPC AC 201813 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DRT CDS DDC 55 NNE GCK 20 NNE COS 50 SW LAR 45 SSW DGW 20 W CDR 25 ENE ANW 55 ESE SUX 30 E MMO TOL 25 NNE UCA 10 SW ALB 15 WSW POU 35 W ABE 20 ESE ZZV 45 N SDF 35 NNE JLN 40 NW BVO 65 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW P07 20 WNW BGS 65 NNE AMA 20 E LBL 25 W GCK 15 ESE ALS 4BL 20 SSW U24 40 ENE ELY EKO 50 NNW OWY 65 N BOI 65 E S80 3DU 45 ESE GDV 40 NNW MBG 20 W ABR 30 E BKX 40 W LNR MKG 30 NE MBS ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 E LYH 20 E CSV 20 WNW CHA 15 ESE GAD 10 WNW DHN 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 S EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN UT WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH NRN AZ/SRN UT INTO WRN CO. ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE WERE MCV OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS PRESENT FROM BAJA EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX WITH AN APPARENT LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. IN THE LOW LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS IN WAKE OF TSTM CLUSTER OVER IA/MO. QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... GIVEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OBSERVED THIS MORNING FROM ERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO WRN NEB AND NERN CO...SEVERAL CONCERNS EXIST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX. WHILE SOME NWD EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN CO INTO NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...IT APPEARS THAT LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS NWWD INTO THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ADJACENT PLAINS OF NERN CO AND SWRN NEB/NEB PNHDL...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY MAY WELL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. NONETHELESS... SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRATUS OVER NERN CO...AS WELL AS OVER DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG DEVELOPING 40-45 KT LLJ AXIS WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB/NRN KS. ...IA/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY... REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. THOUGH SWLY LLJ /PER 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS/ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...EVOLVING MCV COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY WELL SUPPORT ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON 12Z OAX SOUNDING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING... DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... A SECONDARY TSTM CLUSTER IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE INTO N-CNTRL OH AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS PA/NY...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION EWD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP WLY FLOW/MODEST DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL/EWD ELONGATION OF SYSTEM COLD POOL WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...KS/OK/TX DRYLINE... 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF WRN/W-CNTRL TX. ADDITIONALLY...A LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EMBEDDED IN PROGRESSIVE...SUBTROPICAL JET CHANNEL. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY E OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. WHILE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED...SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO INDICATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Apr 20 19:58:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 14:58:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504202008.j3KK8Pg5004490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202001 SWODY1 SPC AC 201959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 40 WNW SJT BGS LBB 20 WNW GAG DDC 55 NNE GCK 30 NE COS LAR BFF AIA VTN SUX 30 E MMO FDY JHW 10 SW ROC UCA MWN 25 NNW PWM ORH POU CXY SDF 40 ESE TBN 10 S CNU BVO 45 SSW TUL 10 S ADM 35 ESE SPS BWD 50 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ART PBG BML 30 NW EPM ...CONT... 25 E CRE FLO HKY TRI TYS CHA HSV 50 NNW MEI 20 NW JAN 35 ESE MLU HEZ MCB 10 NE BVE ...CONT... 20 SSW P07 MAF 25 NW LBB AMA 10 E LBL EHA TAD 45 SE GUC 4BL 10 SE SGU P38 45 ESE ELY SLC 20 SE PIH 15 NNE SUN 27U BTM BIL PHP MHE FRM JVL SBN 20 S DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS FROM THE LWR OH VLY INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...NEW ENGLAND INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY... AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...NORTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CANADIAN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHWARD SURGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...AIR MASS HAS HEATED TO NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 80F FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...WITH A CONTINUED EASTWARD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND RETREATING RIDGE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE HAS NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS...STRONGER FLOW IN BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS CURRENT DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIES. PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. THESE FEATURES HAVE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. THOUGH MEAN WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS EXISTS IN STRONGER CELLS...AND CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONT...AND ABOVE FRONTAL ZONE... BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF FRONT ...AND DEVELOPING WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE LOW...AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. BETTER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL AWAIT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE 21/00-06Z TIME FRAME...WHEN INITIATION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG FRONT TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG DRY LINE IS MOIST AND HAS BECOME CONDITIONALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING. GIVEN STRONG CAPPING...LACK OF BETTER FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME IS BECOMING FOCUSED BETWEEN UPPER JETS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY PROVIDE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ON TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING...IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION...INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 01:04:50 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 20:04:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504210115.j3L1F48X029815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210111 SWODY1 SPC AC 210109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW YKN 40 NW DSM 25 S CID 20 NE BMI 10 WNW LAF 30 E MIE 15 E DAY 25 NNE LUK 30 NNW SDF 35 ENE EVV 25 SW EVV 20 SSE PAH 25 NNW DYR 20 E ARG 40 SSW UNO 15 N HRO 20 W SGF 30 NW SGF 60 SSE OJC 40 SSW OJC 20 E EMP 25 WSW EMP 20 ESE ICT 35 WNW PNC END 30 WSW OKC 35 SE FSI 40 SSW SPS 55 NNW ABI 65 SSW CDS 40 ESE PVW 45 WNW CDS 50 ENE AMA LBL 30 E LAA 30 NE PUB 15 NNE COS 20 SE DEN 20 E FCL 20 NE CYS 40 WNW BFF 25 S CDR 40 W VTN 20 SW YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DRT 70 SW SJT 35 SE BGS 20 ESE LBB 35 N PVW 60 S LBL 20 ESE EHA 10 SSE LAA 30 E PUB 45 NNE ALS 40 ENE DRO 25 NE CEZ 20 ESE 4HV 50 SE U24 30 S DPG 45 N DPG 35 N OGD MLD 20 SSW BYI 50 NW TWF 80 NNE BOI 20 WSW DLN 40 E DLN 25 ENE WEY 35 SW COD 20 WSW WRL 35 S SHR 45 NE SHR 20 NE 4BQ 40 S Y22 35 N PIR 20 WNW FSD 25 ESE SPW 35 N CID 20 WSW CGX 30 SE SBN 15 WNW FKL 15 E ITH 25 NW GFL LEB 15 SW PWM ...CONT... 25 ENE ILM 10 SSW FAY 25 E HKY 15 ENE HSS 25 ENE CSV 55 WSW CSV 10 NE MSL 25 SW TUP 10 NE GLH 25 SSW MLU 10 SW ESF 10 NNW LFT 35 SE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CNTRL U.S. AND MIDWEST... ...NERN CO ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS... PRONOUNCED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ATOP A DEEP SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING...A LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN CO TO THE KS/NEB BORDER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL FEED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WILL BE LIFTED NWD ACROSS THE FRONT TO PROMOTE NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS NEAR THESE FEATURES. MOIST NELY AND UPSLOPE FLOW ON AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FORCING SPREADS EAST AND BEGINS TO TAP STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AS TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE COULD ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT/LOW LATER TONIGHT. ...TX/OK/KS DRYLINE... SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WHICH LIFTED NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER SCALE INTERMOUNTAIN CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING. COMPLEX NOW MOVING INTO WRN OK WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF BOWING AND WAS ORIENTED NORMAL TO 35KT MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEP SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION...AND AIR MASS EAST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHILE STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WAS ALSO STRONGLY CAPPED BASED ON EVENING RAOBS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA OF SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WAS PROBABLY APPROACHING...OR HAS REACHED...ITS PEAK. A FEW MORE LARGE HAIL EVENTS...AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE BOW ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE A GENERAL DECLINE IN SEVERE THREAT ENSUES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS. ...WRN MO TO NERN KS/SERN NEB... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN MO ATTM EXTENDS NWWD TO THE MKC AREA...THEN INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE MO RIVER IN SERN NEB/SWRN IA. AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT...AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS EAST WITH THE LEE-SIDE LOW LATE TONIGHT...TSTMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE AREA WILL FUEL INTENSE STORMS IN A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A THREAT WITH A DEVELOPING MCS INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. ...MIDWEST... ISOLATED TSTM CELL HAS CROSSED THE MS RIVER FROM IA INTO WRN IL THIS EVENING WHILE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. SHEAR... INSTABILITY...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WAS LIMITED. HOWEVER...MOIST AIRMASS FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT OVER IL WAS SITUATED BENEATH MODEST LAPSE RATE PLUME. MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN IL COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND WIND WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 05:53:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 00:53:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504210603.j3L63ZgC012794@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210600 SWODY1 SPC AC 210559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW STL 55 SE VIH TBN 35 NE HRO 55 S HRO 35 NNW TXK 10 SE PRX 15 E DUA 45 WNW MLC 15 ESE PNC 30 ENE ICT 30 WNW MHK 25 WSW BIE 30 ESE LNK 45 W LWD 30 NW IRK 25 E IRK 40 NW STL 40 SSW STL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AUS 45 WSW HDO 15 NNE JCT 45 SE SPS 10 NE OKC 40 SW ICT 30 ESE RSL 35 NNE HLC 25 SSW LBF 30 SE MHN 55 NE BUB 30 NE SUX 45 W ALO 35 NNE MLI MMO 15 SSE LAF 25 ESE BMG 50 WNW SDF 35 NNW HOP 25 N MEM 25 SE ELD 40 ESE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW HSE 15 E CLT 20 NE AHN 25 WNW PFN ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 30 SSW LUL 35 NE HEZ 40 W POE 50 NNW NIR LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 30 SSW HUT MCK BFF 50 SW RAP 60 ESE REJ MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT GEG 50 S S06 30 NNE MQM 30 N JAC SLC 30 SSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE SEA EAT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF MISSOURI...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM NERN TX TO IA TO IL...WRN IND AND THE MID MS VLY... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS...ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS... MISSOURI...OKLAHOMA...AND ARKANSAS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NCNTRL U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCK FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NWRN CANADA. A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW MAKING UP THE SRN COMPONENT OF THE BLOCK IS FCST TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL CENTERS TODAY. ONE CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ID/ORE BORDER. THE OTHER LOW CENTER... NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE FORM OF A STRONG IMPULSE/SPEED MAX CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEB THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE. EVENTUALLY THIS EWD MOVING IMPULSE WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NCNTRL CANADA. ELSEWHERE...COOL AND PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHILE HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ...NEB/NRN KS TO NRN MO... SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...AS WELL AS A PERSISTENT WSWLY MID LEVEL FETCH OFF THE DRIER AND WARMER ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE WRN/SWRN U.S. AND NRN MEXICO...HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD SWATH OF POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY FROM TX TO NEB. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS/NEB TODAY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED TSTMS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS...AND ENHANCED LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST FROM SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO NWRN MO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO WRN IL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN KS/WRN MO SOUTH ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX AND WRN AR... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS SHOULD CONTINUE SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK THROUGH THIS MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT...FROM CNTRL/ERN OK INTO ERN KS AND SWRN MO...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON. STRONG CAP ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS NEB AND WRN KS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW NORMAL TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE SFC LOW...MAY EVOLVE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR IN SPACE AND TIME...FROM SERN KS INTO ERN OK DURING THE EVENING. STORMS MAY THEN MERGE BEFORE SPREADING INTO NWRN AR WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT BY LATE EVENING. OTHER STORMS/SUPERCELLS MAY BACKBUILD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS NERN TX THROUGH EVENING AS FORCING AND HEATING ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING OVER THESE AREAS. MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW INTO SCNTRL AND ERN TX AS CAP IS LOCALLY OVERCOME BY DIURNAL HEATING. ...SRN IA...CNTRL/ERN MO TO WRN IL... ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM SRN IA INTO ERN MO AND WRN IL THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THESE AREAS...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD DEVELOP FROM CELLS TRACKING SEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ...VA/NC AREA... SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS CNTRL VA MAY POSE A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND SHORT-LIVED. ..CARBIN.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 12:39:01 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 07:39:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504211249.j3LCnFMw010344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211245 SWODY1 SPC AC 211243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH 25 NNE POF 35 WSW UNO 60 S HRO 25 NW TXK 15 SE DUA 50 E OKC 25 ESE PNC 25 SW EMP 15 W MHK 25 WSW BIE 30 ESE LNK 45 W LWD 30 NW IRK 15 S UIN 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TPL 15 SW HDO 25 NE DRT 35 S SJT MWL 20 ESE OKC 10 NE ICT 10 W HSI 25 W BUB 60 NE BUB 30 NE SUX 45 W ALO MMO 15 SSE LAF 45 N SDF 35 ESE OWB 30 ENE DYR 60 ENE LIT 25 SSE ELD 30 E TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 30 SSW HUT MCK BFF 50 SW RAP 60 ESE REJ MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 45 NW FLO 55 SE MCN AQQ ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT GEG 50 S S06 30 NNE MQM 30 N JAC SLC 30 SSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE SEA EAT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SRQ VRB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MO...ERN KS...ERN OK...NW AR AND A SMALL PART OF SE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN CO EJECTS E INTO THE CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY. AT THE SAME TIME...NRN STREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD...AMPLIFYING EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE GRT LKS. WHILE THE PLNS IMPULSE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY COMPACT...MID LEVEL W/WNWLY FLOW WILL NEVERTHELESS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLNS AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN DEEP SHEAR OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND DRIVE COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN KS E TO THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL KS SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY E ALONG WAVY WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL IL. ...LWR MO TO MID MS VLY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER SE NEB/NE KS AS DIURNAL HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. BOTH SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MAIN AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE WILL STILL BE W OF TRIPLE POINT AT THIS TIME. RESULTING ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING...COUPLED WITH MODERATE /35-40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /AVERAGE MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MO A BIT LATER IN THE DAY...WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO IT MAY PROMOTE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS AND A FEW TORNADOES. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN POCKET OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ERN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MERGING OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH THAT ARRIVING FROM THE WNW...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONSOLIDATION INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT WILL CARRY AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND E INTO IL TONIGHT. ...DRY LINE ERN KS/SW MO SWD INTO CNTRL AND NE TX... MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A BIT LATER IN THE DAY SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO TX AS SURFACE HEATING OVERCOMES CAP NOW IN PLACE. SATELLITE DATE SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL INDEED EXPERIENCE STRONG HEATING. IN ADDITION... OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S DRY LINE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF NRN OK/CNTRL KS. COUPLED WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL GRADUALLY LENGTHEN HODOGRAPHS AND KEEP DEEP SHEAR FAIRLY PERPENDICULAR TO DRY LINE...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. ...VA/NC... A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM IN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE VA/NC MOUNTAINS...AND INVOF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE /20-25 KT/ LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY MEAN FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION INTO SHORT BANDS...AND POSSIBLY A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 16:31:16 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 11:31:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504211641.j3LGfRp2026271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211636 SWODY1 SPC AC 211634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH POF 40 E HRO 25 NW TXK 15 SE DUA 50 E OKC 25 ESE PNC 25 SW EMP 15 W MHK 35 NNE CNK 15 NNW LNK 20 NE IRK 15 S UIN 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TPL 25 SW HDO 30 NE DRT 35 SSE SJT 25 NNW MWL 20 SSW PNC 40 NNE ICT 25 SW CNK 20 NNE BBW 55 SW YKN 45 W ALO 35 NE MLI 15 E MMO 25 SSE LAF 40 N SDF 30 E OWB 60 SSW JBR 25 SSE ELD 30 E TPL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 W SPS 15 WNW OKC 15 WSW HUT 10 N HLC 30 NNE SNY 40 SSE RAP 40 NNW PHP 20 E MBG RST 10 NE BEH CMH ZZV MRB DOV 30 S ACY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 50 SE CLT 10 S AGS 30 NNE MGR 10 SE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 WNW ORL 45 WNW PBI 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EAT 45 W GEG 40 N S80 35 SSW 27U 30 S MQM 20 NW JAC SLC 30 WSW ENV 4LW EUG 45 S OLM 45 SE SEA EAT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN NEB...ERN KS...ERN OK...MUCH OF MO...PARTS OF WRN IL...AND NWRN AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW NOW OVER WRN NEB WILL MOVE ESEWD WITH TIME TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT EWD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB INTO THE MO / IA / IL PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FAIRLY MOIST / SLY FLOW NOW EVIDENT WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM KS / NEB SURFACE LOW SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS / THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. WITHIN THIS DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / ACTIVE SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR INVOF SURFACE LOW / NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB / N CENTRAL KS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING SWD ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO OK / TX. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...SUFFICIENT VEERING / DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISOLATED...WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT / DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM S CENTRAL NEB / ERN KS INTO PARTS OF MO...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LOW / INVOF MO WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. OVERNIGHT...STRONGER / MORE WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS MO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THOUGH HAIL / ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS FLOW VEERS. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MO AND INTO WRN IL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO CONTINUE. WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF NEARLY STATIONARY W-E BOUNDARY ACROSS VA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MODEST SHEAR /MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT/ AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS OR A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...FL... FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN PENINSULA...AS LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW SUGGESTS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG W COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DISORGANIZED / PULSE IN NATURE...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 21 19:47:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 14:47:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504211958.j3LJw0aJ008324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211951 SWODY1 SPC AC 211949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH 10 NNW PAH 35 N GLH 25 NW TXK 15 NNW PRX 30 WNW MLC BVO EMP BIE LNK 30 WNW OMA DSM OTM 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LFK HDO SJT SPS OKC PNC 30 N CNK 10 SSE GRI 20 NNE BBW 55 SW YKN 45 W ALO 35 NE MLI 15 E MMO LAF IND BNA 35 ESE GWO 10 WNW MLU 50 SW LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 WNW SPS 10 SE HUT EAR BBW MHN PHP ATY RWF JVL SBN CMH MGW MRB MRB 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 50 SE CLT 10 S AGS 30 NNE MGR 10 SE AQQ ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 WNW ORL 45 WNW PBI 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SEA YKM 35 SW LWS 35 SSW 27U 30 S MQM JAC LND RWL 35 NW VEL SLC 20 WSW TWF 80 SW BOI 65 N 4LW EUG 10 ESE AST 20 SSE SEA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB/SW IA/ERN KS/ERN OK/MUCH OF MO AND AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN PLAINS AND MID/LWR MS VLY.... STRETCHING SHEARING OF GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION CONTINUES...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES... AROUND BASE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... PLAINS FEATURE WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT AS IT CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WHERE MOIST CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS EVOLVED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...** MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE DOWNSTREAM HAS ALREADY WEAKENED INHIBITION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN STRENGTHENING WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY COULD PROGRESS THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ALREADY ONGOING NEAR CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR DRY LINE/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN THE MEANTIME...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW/TOUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO EXTENSIVE BROKEN SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...EASTERN GULF/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...** **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 01:10:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 20:10:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504220120.j3M1Kmcx026090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220117 SWODY1 SPC AC 220116 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OJC 30 NE MKC 35 SSW P35 40 SSW UIN ALN 15 NW MVN 40 E MDH 15 SE PAH 20 NE DYR 50 ENE LIT 10 S HOT 40 ENE PRX 15 NE DUA 25 WSW MLC 35 SW JLN 20 ESE OJC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 70 NE P07 30 SSE ABI 20 NNW MWL 50 NW MLC 35 WNW JLN 35 SSW OJC 25 W FNB 25 NE LNK 40 E OMA 15 WSW MLI 25 NNE HUF 35 ESE BMG 15 NW LEX 40 WNW LOZ 30 WNW CSV 25 NNE GLH 35 E SHV 35 WNW CLL 40 NNW SAT 55 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 40 SSW AGR 45 W PBI 15 SSE MIA ...CONT... 25 SSW MOB 25 NNW LUL 20 NNE HEZ 45 SSE LFK 40 W VCT LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 60 E FST 15 NE ABI 40 ESE FSI 50 WSW TUL 25 NW CNU 25 NNW MHK 45 SSW EAR 50 W LBF 50 WNW VTN 35 ENE PIR 20 SE ATY 10 ESE MKT 15 WSW MSN 20 W BEH 20 ESE DAY 15 ESE PKB 25 ENE EKN 20 ENE SBY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 35 SE CLT 25 SSW AND 40 SSW MCN 25 SSE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW 4LW 30 N MFR 30 N EUG 20 N DLS 50 SE YKM 30 WSW S80 30 ENE BOI 65 WNW OWY 10 NW 4LW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FAR S TX TO THE MIDWEST... NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. ...MO TO IL AND THE MID MS VLY... DEEPENING TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NWRN MO THIS EVENING IS FCST TO TRACK EAST ALONG SHARP WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE LOW EWD TO THE LWR OH VLY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER A LARGE REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF MO HAS BEEN LOCALLY OVERTURNED FROM NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ERUPTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND OUTFLOWS. WITH THE ONSET OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR UPWARD OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEB/KS...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT FROM ORGANIZED STORMS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE LOW...OUTFLOW ACROSS SWRN MO...AND THE WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL TO ERN MO WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL...IN THESE AREAS AND NEAR THESE FEATURES. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST FROM MKC AREA ATTM. WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MO EWD TO THE BOOTHEEL. POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING BOWING COMPLEX WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY EVOLVE AS 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRY AIR INTRUSION SPREAD EAST ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS IND...WRN KY...AND MIDDLE TN BY EARLY FRIDAY. ...ERN OK/AR... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LZK EVENING RAOB SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD FUEL A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN THE MDT RISK AREA. ...TX... WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...IN ADDITION TO GREATER INHIBITION...WILL KEEP THE NUMBER OF STORMS LIMITED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES CNTRL AND ERN TX. STRONG HEATING THAT OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WAS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW MORE STORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONT. ...SWRN AL... LONG-LIVED COLD POOL FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT ORIGINATED OVER MO YESTERDAY...WAS STILL GOING ACROSS SRN AL THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS WEAKLY ORGANIZED...BUT INTENSE...CELLS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO WANE AS SURFACE HEATING AND STABILIZATION SET IN. ..CARBIN.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 05:54:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 00:54:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504220604.j3M64s6Q014197@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220602 SWODY1 SPC AC 220600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW LUL MEI 20 SE TUP 20 SE MKL 20 SSE PAH 35 SE MVN 25 SE MTO 20 NNW HUF 30 SE LAF 20 WNW DAY 40 SE DAY 25 W HTS 40 WNW TRI 10 S HSS SPA 40 NNW AGS 50 SW AGS 30 NE ABY 35 NE MAI 20 SW MAI 40 SE MOB 30 N GPT 40 SW LUL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 45 NE DRT 25 NW JCT 35 WNW ACT 20 WNW SHV 40 SSW ELD 35 N MLU 15 SW GLH 45 NNW GWO 30 SE JBR 25 WSW POF VIH 25 NNE COU 25 SE IRK 35 ESE OTM 15 E MLI 10 NE FWA 30 W HLG 45 ENE CHO 40 ENE RIC 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE SFO 30 W MER 15 NNE FAT 60 S BIH 25 NNE EDW 10 ESE SBA ...CONT... 65 WNW 4OM 35 N EPH 45 S LWS 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK 55 NNE LIT 15 SSE TBN 45 WNW COU 20 NNE LWD 45 E FOD 20 ENE RST 30 NE LSE 15 W GRB OSC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 25 NE UCA PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS... INDIANA... OHIO... KENTUCKY... TENNESSEE... EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA... GEORGIA... SMALL AREAS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM SERN TX TO THE MID MS VLY ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE EAST COAST AND NRN FL... A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE REGION OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. VERY LARGE HAIL... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES... ARE ALL POSSIBLE AS AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS... INDIANA... OHIO... KENTUCKY... TENNESSEE... EASTERN MISSISSIPPI... ALABAMA... GEORGIA... AND SMALL AREAS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...MIDWEST ACROSS THE TN VLY TO THE NRN GULF COAST ... COMPACT AND VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WAS LOCATED OVER NEB EARLY TODAY. ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/NRN MN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THESE TWO CURRENTLY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WILL PHASE INTO A DEEP COLD CORE TROUGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY REGIONS WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TN VLY REGIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...INITIAL TRIPLE-POINT SFC LOW OVER IL WILL TRACK OR REDEVELOP EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS OH AND WRN PA WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE LEADING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN AN EXTENSIVE ARC FROM THE OH VLY SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY LATER TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHIELD... EXPECT AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SECONDARY SFC LOW OVER IND...SWD ACROSS THE TN VLY...TO THE NRN GULF COAST. PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THIS REGION OF INCREASINGLY HIGH CAPE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z. ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND DIVERGENT 50-70KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK SPREADING SEWD FROM THE LWR OH AND MID MS VLYS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHEN DISCRETE CELLS EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HOWEVER...PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AWAY/SOUTH OF SFC LOW SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREATS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH TIME. BY EVENING...STORM MERGERS AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE ADVANCING FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL AND EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ADVANCE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS...GA AND AL INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...LA WWD TO SERN TX... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADS ACROSS THESE AREAS COINCIDENT WITH STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40KT ATOP WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS OR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...WRN ORE/LWR COLUMBIA RIVER VLY... WARM DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SRN CASCADES COUPLED WITH SMALL POCKET COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE SWD. A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST GIVEN MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 12:17:48 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 07:17:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504221227.j3MCRvHo023288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221225 SWODY1 SPC AC 221224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUF 20 SSW DAY 40 WNW HTS 25 ESE ATL 40 NNE CEW 40 SSE LUL 25 N LUL 25 E CBM 30 SW EVV 25 SSE HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY ...CONT... 60 SSE DRT 30 NW HDO 35 W MLU 20 NNW GWO 40 E MEM 15 SW PAH 20 SSW BLV DEC 20 SE MIE 20 NNW ZZV 25 SSE YNG 35 NE LBE 45 ENE CHO 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW DRT 25 E BGS 30 WNW TXK 55 NNE LIT 15 SSE TBN 45 WNW COU 20 NNE LWD 45 E FOD 20 ENE RST 30 NE LSE 15 W GRB OSC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 25 NE UCA PWM ...CONT... 65 WNW 4OM 35 N EPH 45 S LWS 60 W BOI 65 ESE 4LW 10 NNE MHS 4BK ...CONT... 10 SSE SFO 30 W MER 15 NNE FAT 60 S BIH 25 NNE EDW 10 ESE SBA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF KY...TN...AL...AND SMALL PARTS OF SRN IND...SERN MS...NRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MIDDLE AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S.... ...MID WEST/SOUTH/SRN ATLANTIC COAST... STRONG MID/UPPER SYSTEM /NOW OVER NERN KS/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WAA AND H85 CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT QUALITY OF AIR MASS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...06Z MODELS /ALONG WITH 09Z RUC/ ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS BY 21Z. /LEADING ACTIVITY/ THOUGH MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WILL CONTINUE. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BY THE MID MORNING AS HEATING AIDS IN WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/ERN KY/ERN TN/NRN AL/NWRN GA. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT...MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. /AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY/ AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD JUST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY... S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN AIR MASS RECOVERY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS SRN IND/SERN IL/SRN OH. THIS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE OF OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY/TN...AND DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL...HOWEVER...BE STRONGEST FROM MIDDLE TN/NRN AL NWD INTO IND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATE IN THE DAY FROM SRN IND SWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED SWWD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN AND CENTRAL TX AROUND 20-21Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH EXPECTED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE NOSE OF STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS A FEW TORNADOES COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER THIS AREA. EVOLUTION INTO LEWPS/BOW ECHOES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD AND SEWD...INCREASING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER DARK. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY SPREAD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT. ...PAC NW... SMALL AREA OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MOIST MID LEVELS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY NEAR SLOW WWD MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NWRN ORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN FORM ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 16:43:08 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 11:43:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504221653.j3MGrGxS026774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221648 SWODY1 SPC AC 221646 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EVV 30 S HUF 25 ENE LUK 40 WNW HTS 35 SE CSV 10 SE ATL 30 NNE MCN 20 E MAI 35 ESE MCB 40 NW BTR 30 WNW HEZ 35 W CBM CKV 30 SW EVV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 30 NW SAT 35 NE LFK 25 WSW MLU 15 NNE GWO 15 ESE UOX 10 SSE PAH 10 WSW MVN 15 WNW MTO ZZV 25 W MGW 20 WSW EKN 30 W SHD 25 E CHO 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 50 SW SJT 30 WNW TPL 15 NW SHV 20 ESE PBF 40 ESE JBR 25 E CGI 25 WNW SLO 20 N SPI 35 ESE MMO 35 NNW FWA 30 S DTW ...CONT... 15 SW BUF 10 SSW SYR 10 NNE ALB 15 SW ORH BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 50 SSW PDT 25 SW BNO 35 N MHS 20 N ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LNR 30 ESE IRK 35 SW IRK 45 WNW LWD 30 N FOD 35 SSE MSP 25 SSE EAU 10 E VOK 15 SSE LNR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S SFO 30 NNW FAT 55 NNW NID 15 S NID 10 S OXR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MIDDLE TN...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN MS...MUCH OF AL AND INTO WRN GA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN / OH / LOWER MS VALLEYS WWD INTO SERN TX AND EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD WITH TIME...AS STRONGER FEATURES UPSTREAM DIVE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA / THE NRN PLAINS. OVERALL RESULT WILL BE A LARGE / DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE TN / OH VALLEYS...WITH THIS TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID / UPPER JET. AT THE SURFACE...LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH TIME AHEAD OF INITIAL VORT MAX...AND THEN SHOULD DEEPEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN PA AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW -- NOW STRETCHING SSWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN ACROSS SRN AR INTO NERN TX -- WILL MOVE SEWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM WRN PA LOW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...TN / OH VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST / ATLANTIC COAST STATES... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THEY MOVE E OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH TIME ALONG / AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM IL SSWWD INTO WRN TN / MS...AND THEN WSWWD INTO TX WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATTM. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S DEWPOINTS/ COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...WITH WIDESPREAD 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY-SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME LIKELY. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING...AND INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EVOLVE. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THREAT MORE LIMITED. ...SRN / SERN TX... THOUGH STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NE OF THIS REGION... ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL TX IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE / DEVELOP WSWWD WITH TIME INVOF COLD FRONT. AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING SEWD OVER THIS REGION WITH TIME...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE. THOUGH HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...PARTS OF WRN WA / WRN ORE... UPPER LOW / VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL /-20 TO -22 C AT H5/ FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WA / ORE INTO THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES / STEEP LAPSE RATES...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 22 19:45:59 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 14:45:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504221956.j3MJu79Z030124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221952 SWODY1 SPC AC 221951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE MDH 45 SSE MTO 15 SSE HUF 55 N SDF 10 E LUK 30 NW JKL 35 SE CSV 10 SE ATL 25 NW MCN 20 E MAI 35 ESE MCB 40 NW BTR 30 WNW HEZ 35 W CBM 45 NE MKL 35 ESE MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 15 SSW CTY ...CONT... 65 W COT 30 S JCT TPL ELD GLH UOX DYR 10 N CGI MVN DEC CMI 30 S LAF 55 ESE IND 40 ESE DAY UNI PIT LBE 30 W MRB CHO 35 ENE LYH 60 ESE LYH ORF 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BUF SYR ALB ORH BID ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 50 SW SJT 30 WNW TPL TYR 35 NNE ELD LIT ARG 15 SE ALN 40 E UIN PIA 35 NNW FWA 30 S DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 50 SSW PDT 25 SW BNO 35 N MHS 20 N ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE LNR 30 ESE IRK 35 SW IRK 45 WNW LWD 30 N FOD 35 SSE MSP 25 SSE EAU 10 E VOK 15 SSE LNR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR OH/TN VLYS AND CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.... EVOLUTION OF LARGE DEEP UPPER CLOSED LOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO MERGING/PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSES... DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN BLOCK. ...MID SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GULF STATES/LWR MS VLY AND TX**... CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALREADY ACCELERATING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DRY LINE-LIKE STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ENVIRONMENT NEAR THIS FEATURE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 100O TO 2000 J/KG. INTENSE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY INITIATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... AND...AS EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. EVOLUTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES**... CLUSTER OF STORMS INITIATED BY WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS IS NOT AS MOIST AS AREAS TO THE WEST...DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR ARE ALSO WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SIZABLE DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE COLD POOL SURGING DOWN THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG GUST FRONT...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS SPREADING OUT OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...GENERAL TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...DUE PRIMARILY TO DIURNAL COOLING OF LOWER-LEVEL AIR MASS. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS**... SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION...NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. COLD STABLE SURFACE RIDGING IS SLOW TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ...AND UPPER IMPULSE WHICH SUPPORTED INITIATION OF ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST**... THOUGH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD OFF COASTAL AREAS...HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CASCADES BENEATH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF COLD POOL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO HEATING/OROGRAPHY...AND STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/22/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 00:59:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 19:59:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504230109.j3N19FuL028600@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230106 SWODY1 SPC AC 230104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB 40 SSE LUL 0A8 30 SW CHA 30 WNW TYS 35 WNW LOZ 30 WSW LUK 20 N LUK 45 E LUK 30 N 5I3 35 NW TRI 30 W HSS 55 WSW AVL 35 N MCN 60 W SAV 40 NE AYS 25 SE AYS 40 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 20 SE CRP 30 W NIR 45 SSE SAT 45 ESE SAT 45 SE LFK 20 ENE HEZ 25 WSW MEI 30 W TCL 25 ENE HSV 25 W CSV 45 NNW CSV 20 WNW SDF 30 ESE BMG 15 ENE IND 25 ENE MIE 35 NNW CMH 20 SE MFD 25 NNW HLG 30 WSW LBE 35 E EKN 15 SSW CHO 55 SW RIC 10 SE RDU 35 E FAY 30 SSE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE UIL 20 WSW SEA 20 NNE DLS 35 NE RDM 50 SSE RDM 30 NNW MHS 15 NW RBL 30 WSW SAC 25 WNW MER 25 WNW FAT 30 WSW BIH 60 NNW BIH 25 E NFL 45 ENE LOL BAM 55 SSE EKO 35 ESE ELY 45 W MLF 20 SE P38 35 E DRA 45 N DAG 30 SSE DAG 40 E RAL 25 NNW SAN ...CONT... 20 SSE DRT 50 SSW CLL 40 NE HEZ 40 WNW MEI 45 N HSV 25 SE BWG 45 SSE BMG 15 SSE HUF 15 SSW BMI 30 NNW BMI MMO SBN 45 NNW MFD CLE 15 NNE ELM 25 WNW ALB 15 SSW EEN 15 NW HYA ...CONT... 10 NNW DAB 15 S PIE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OHIO...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE TX/LA GULF COAST TO THE OH VLY...APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTHEAST COAST... ...OH VLY TO NRN GULF COAST... A LARGE AND INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OH VLY THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO THE TN VLY...THEN SWWD TO THE LA/TX GULF COASTAL PLAINS. UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW FROM SRN OH ACROSS ERN KY/TN TO NRN GA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING ARE RESTRICTED/CHANNELED BY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS. CLEARLY...SUFFICIENT AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SYSTEM...FROM SRN OH TO NRN GA...TO SUSTAIN ONGOING SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY UNTAPPED AND VERY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS. AS THE PHASING OF TWO POTENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE MIDWEST RESULTS IN THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT AND ONGOING INTENSIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE AND SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. IN THE NORTH...MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ONGOING ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN OH AND ERN KY/TN INTO WRN PARTS OF WV/VA/NC AND SC. EVENTUALLY...THE INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD START TO WANE AS WEAKER INSTABILITY IS ENCOUNTERED OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION...AND RESPONSE OF THE LARGE SCALE WIND FIELDS...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL MAY REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES AND MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. IN THE SOUTH...SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ARE LIKELY FROM THE MS DELTA EAST ACROSS AL/GA AND NRN FL. DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND VOLATILE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INTENSE AND ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LARGE AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE LIMITED...MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER. ..CARBIN.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 05:23:37 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 00:23:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504230533.j3N5XhZO028687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230531 SWODY1 SPC AC 230530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HSE 20 E EWN 20 WNW OAJ 15 NNE FAY 15 WSW RDU 25 SE DAN 50 ESE LYH 40 WSW DCA 20 ENE HGR 40 NNW CXY 20 NNE IPT 25 N AVP 40 NE ABE 30 ESE DOV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 45 S CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CZZ 35 NNE DAG 30 WSW BIH 45 W RNO 10 NNW MHS 25 NNW HQM ...CONT... 45 NNE 63S 60 N 27U 55 ESE RKS 35 N ALS 45 NNW ROW 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 30 S CEW 25 E MCN 40 SW GSO 30 NE SSU 20 SE ZZV 20 NE CLE ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD COMPLETING THE PHASING OF TWO VERY INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX... APPROACHING 100KT AT 500MB...ROTATES AROUND THE WRN/BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE TN VLY. AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS PA AND THEN TRACKS TO NY WHILE UNDERGOING OCCLUSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS THROUGH THE DAY...AND SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MOST OF FL BY EARLY SUNDAY. SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS...WITH COOL/DRY NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH KEEPING INSTABILITY LOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MS VLY. DESPITE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKY FLOW REGIME...A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE MIDDLE U.S. RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD...AFTER FIRST STREAMING INLAND FROM SRN CA COAST...ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO NRN FL EARLY SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY CONVECTION...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING. AN AXIS OF GREATER HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BENEATH THE DRY SLOT...FROM NERN NC TO CNTRL/ERN VA...AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PA...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS AXIS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH STRONG SLY MID LEVEL JET MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. LINEAR FORCING ALONG FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE...WITH SEVERE HAIL DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA. ...FL... WIND GUSTS/HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NRN FL EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...SWRN/CNTRL AZ.. SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WAS PASSING EAST OF AZ EARLY TODAY AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MODEST SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE LWR CO RIVER VLY INLAND TO CNTRL AZ BEFORE THE NEXT POCKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING MAINTAINING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GRADUAL LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL MOISTENING...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD TSTMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING AND SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND EVENT. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 12:29:35 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 07:29:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504231239.j3NCdeLu009725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231237 SWODY1 SPC AC 231236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 20 WNW OAJ 35 N SOP 25 ENE LYH 40 SW MRB 15 ENE PSB 25 N AVP 15 NE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX ...CONT... 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW SAN 15 N EDW 35 W BIH 10 WSW RBL 40 WNW MHS 25 NNW HQM ...CONT... 45 NNE 63S 60 N 27U 55 ESE RKS 35 N ALS 45 NNW ROW 50 SW MRF ...CONT... 10 ENE AQQ 50 WNW SAV 40 SW GSO 30 NE SSU 20 SE ZZV 20 NE CLE ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN/CENTRAL FL... ...MID ATLANTIC... OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS AND LATEST ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN PA SWD INTO CENTRAL VA/ERN NC. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WRN PA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DEVELOP NWD WITHIN INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM CENTRAL NJ ENEWD INTO NWRN PA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 70F AS FAR NORTH AS ERN PA...WITH 60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY OVER ERN NC/SERN VA EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE REGION BY 18Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF 1000+ SBCAPE SPREADING NWD INTO ERN PA BETWEEN 17-20Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD AT NEAR 40 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF SLGT RISK AREA. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND LIKELY STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION INTO SMALL LINES WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ADDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z WHEN LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT FURTHER SEVERE RISK. ...NRN/CENTRAL FL... STRONG WLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL FL. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM JAX/TBW AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY...AS EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDING FROM BOI. THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD GENERATE SUFFICIENT SBCAPE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NWD INTO NERN ORE TODAY. STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 16:22:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 11:22:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504231632.j3NGWjCr030246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231625 SWODY1 SPC AC 231624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 35 SE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N HSE 10 NW OAJ 20 NW RDU 40 ENE LYH 10 SW MRB 25 WNW HGR PSB 20 NNE PSB 30 E IPT 20 S AVP 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 30 NNE DAG 10 WSW MER 40 E UKI 35 ESE CEC 10 NW EUG CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA 55 SE FCA 20 SE BTM 40 NE IDA 25 SSW EVW 35 SSE CNY 35 WSW 4SL 35 WSW 4CR 50 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 SSE GSO 35 WSW PSB 30 SSW BUF ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS ...CONT... 20 W CTY 20 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 4FC 45 NNW 4FC 20 S LAR 15 SSE CYS 35 ENE DEN 30 WSW LIC 10 SSW PUB 50 NNE ALS 45 ENE GUC 25 SW 4FC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL.... ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO FORM THIS MORNING OVER OH...AND THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DRIFT EWD TOWARD WRN PA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS WILL ROTATE EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE HEATING W OF THE CIRRUS BAND WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC/VA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 60-70 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17-19Z INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM CENTRAL NC NWD INTO CENTRAL VA...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT NWD INTO PA. EXPECT STORMS TO THEN SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS VA/NC...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CENTRAL AND N FL... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...WHILE A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS FL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ONGOING STORMS...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ...NRN GREAT BASIN AREA... 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOI AND LKN SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME WEAK CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM NW NV INTO SE ORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVING NWD. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 23 19:37:52 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 14:37:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504231947.j3NJlunw001754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231944 SWODY1 SPC AC 231942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE EWN 20 S OAJ 10 E FAY RDU 25 SSE CHO 25 WNW HGR PSB 20 NNE PSB 30 E IPT 20 S AVP 15 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MLB 20 NW AGR 55 NNE PIE 15 SW GNV 20 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 25 W PMD NID 10 E SAC 35 ESE CEC EUG RDM DLS OLM CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA FCA 3DU MQM 10 ESE PIH 10 SSE SLC MTJ 50 SSW ALS SAF 4CR 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 SSE GSO 35 WSW PSB 30 SSW BUF ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS ...CONT... 20 W CTY SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EGE 35 E CAG RWL LAR FCL DEN COS 50 WSW COS 10 E ASE EGE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. COLD FRONT...SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WITH UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. THUS...IT APPEARS MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF FRONT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA...NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND SPREAD NORTH NORTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO/OFF COASTAL AREAS...SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70 KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. AS LINE SOLIDIFIES...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER/MORE STABLE MARINE AIR CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS. ...FLORIDA... DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/ CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF MELBOURNE...WHERE INSTABILITY/SHEAR APPEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD SOUTHERN BRANCH CIRCULATION OFF PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS NOW LIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. ..KERR.. 04/23/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 00:30:25 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2005 19:30:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504240040.j3O0eSbr026003@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240038 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2005 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 10 NW MLB ...CONT... 25 SSW EWN 30 WSW WAL 20 SW AVP ROC ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 30 ENE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 25 W PMD NID 10 E SAC 35 ESE CEC EUG RDM DLS OLM CLM ...CONT... 65 NW FCA FCA 3DU MQM 10 ESE PIH 10 SSE SLC MTJ 50 SSW ALS SAF 4CR 75 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MIA 65 NNE EYW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... NEGATIVE-TILTED H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. REMNANTS OF THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT/ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS VA/NC CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DE/SERN PA AND OFF THE VA/NC COAST. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SERN PA...NJ AND LONG ISLAND WAS LIKELY OF MARINE ORIGIN /IE MORE STABLE/ GIVEN THE BACKED SURFACE FLOW. THUS...THE TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT MOVE THROUGH THESE LOCALES THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLD GUSTY WIND REPORT. ...CNTRL FL... PLUME OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 65F HAS ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS CNTRL FL AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS FAVORING THE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS VCNTY KTPA. ISOLD STORMS MAY REMAIN SEMI-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH. ...DESERT SOUTHWEST... SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST 195 W OF KSAN WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE COAST. H5 JET CORE OF 60-70 KTS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WAS NOSING INTO THE LWR CO RVR VLY WITH A DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ. HEATING AND INFLUX OF MODEST PAC MOISTURE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS TSTMS FROM SRN CA INTO THE DESERT SW. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...MORE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NRN SONORA AND MOVE NNEWD INTO AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR ISOLD DOWNBURSTS/DUST STORMS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THREATS DO NOT SEEM TO MEET CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND/HAIL THREATS. ...PAC NW... TSTMS THAT FORMED OVER THE COLUMBIA/YAKIMA RVR VLYS THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVED TOWARD KYKM. A COLD POOL...HOWEVER...HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAINLY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS HAVE PASSED. ..RACY.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 05:32:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 00:32:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504240542.j3O5giOI032028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240541 SWODY1 SPC AC 240539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ENE 63S MSO 25 SSE DEN 45 S LHX EHA 25 N END PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 15 S FHU 40 E PHX 45 NNE NID 15 SE TVL 50 SE EUG 10 ESE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE SRN CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LEE-TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO W TX... MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR E OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER LOW...WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE E OF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OR VCNTY THE LEE-TROUGH. H5 TEMPERATURES DECREASING AOA MINUS 20C AND RECYCLED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT THERMAL BUOYANCY FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH ISOLD GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MID-AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH MEAGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK...BUT RATHER A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL. STORMS MAY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH CINH MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED STORMS FROM FORMING/SURVIVING. BUT...GIVEN A STORM OUT ON THE PLAINS...LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY AID IN GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. AS THE LLJ DIURNALLY DEVELOPS AFTER DARK...INCREASE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY LOFT PARCELS TO HIGH LFC/S ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE IN WCNTRL/CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY HOWEVER. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 12:26:41 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 07:26:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241236.j3OCai39001995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241234 SWODY1 SPC AC 241232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM INTO FAR WRN AND SWRN TX... BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AZ. ETA...ETAKF...AND 09Z IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER MEAGER...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-18C TO -21C AT H5/ AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z. AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS GREATEST QUESTION ATTM. BOTH RUC AND ETAKF DEVELOP 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE FROM CENTRAL NM INTO SWRN TX BY 21Z... WHICH WOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AS STRENGTHENING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE OVERSPREAD BY 45-55 KT WLY H5 WINDS TODAY. THUS...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY REQUIRE A SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MAY ALLOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL TX/SRN OK LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 12:31:55 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 07:31:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241241.j3OCfu2l004462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241239 SWODY1 SPC AC 241237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM INTO FAR WRN AND SWRN TX... BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AZ. ETA...ETAKF...AND 09Z RUC IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN RATHER MEAGER...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-18C TO -21C AT H5/ AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z. AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS GREATEST QUESTION ATTM. BOTH RUC AND ETAKF DEVELOP 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE FROM CENTRAL NM INTO SWRN TX BY 21Z... WHICH WOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX. HOWEVER...ETA AND GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. REGARDLESS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AS STRENGTHENING SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE OVERSPREAD BY 45-55 KT WLY H5 WINDS TODAY. THUS...ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF HIGHER TERRAIN COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY REQUIRE A SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS TODAY. LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND MAY ALLOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL TX/SRN OK LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 16:31:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 11:31:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241641.j3OGfgem018129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241639 SWODY1 SPC AC 241637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COLD VORTEX WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN ORE/NWRN CA SEWD/SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLATEAU RESULTING IN MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TAKING SRN PORTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND BREAKING IT OFF EWD INTO WRN KS AS IT BECOMES PART OF THE DOMINATING VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ...ERN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF W TX... LATEST SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN HIGH BASED AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...YET MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5C/KM. ALSO...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING OMEGA FIELD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...THEN ANOTHER BAND WILL REDEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF 500 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE -18C TO -20C ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 15Z RUC INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES /8.5C/KM/ THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE INK/MAF VICINITY WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 7500 FT AGL AND 25-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THUS... WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FAVORABLE JET EXIT REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT CONSIDERING THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Apr 24 19:37:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Apr 2005 14:37:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504241947.j3OJlFiW032462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241943 SWODY1 SPC AC 241941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2005 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 63S 20 ESE PUW 15 WSW 27U 50 WNW RIW 45 NNW CYS 55 SW GLD 45 SSE DDC 40 WSW TUL 20 SSW PGO 10 N GLS ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 ENE PHX 35 W LAS 15 NNW TVL 25 W MFR 10 ESE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE EFK 15 E CON 25 SSW ORH 15 NE POU 25 SW ART. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN NM / FAR W TX. THOUGH INITIAL BAND OF HIGHLY-ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM...NEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS FAR W TX / WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF ASCENT. DEEP MIXED LAYER IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHERE 30 TO 40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE OBSERVED. THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...A FEW MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS OR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 04/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 12:27:09 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 07:27:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504251237.j3PCb6Ej019011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251234 SWODY1 SPC AC 251232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 W VCT 15 SSE AUS 35 NW ACT 35 WSW ADM 40 SE OKC 25 SSW MKO 30 WSW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 25 SSW AUO 40 NNE DHN 20 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 30 NE JCT 10 WNW BWD 40 ENE BGS 10 ENE CNM 30 WNW SVC 50 NE IGM 45 WSW P38 70 WNW OWY 45 N BNO 10 ENE ALW 20 NNE S80 30 ENE BPI 35 E DEN 50 NNE CAO 55 S LBL 30 N GAG 30 S BIE 35 SSE FOD 50 ENE ALO 25 SSE LNR 20 SW RFD 25 NW STL 20 NE MDH 10 SW BWG 30 WSW CHA 35 ESE LGC 30 ENE AQQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW OVER SERN CO/NERN NM WILL EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. STRONG /110-120 KT/ WSWLY H25 JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS ERN TX TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...AS A BROAD SWATH OF 50+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREADS STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS. RESULTANT SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SRN PLAINS/ NWD MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL TX WITHIN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND GENERALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO ERN TX TODAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM WILL HAVE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER STORMS. 06Z ETA STILL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ITS SFC MOISTURE RETURN... DUE TO FORECAST OF 70+F DEW POINTS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WHERE BOUYS ARE ONLY MEASURING LOWER/MID 60F DEW POINTS. AXIS OF 52-56F DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS NCENTRAL TX BY 21Z...WITH 64+F DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL TX...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH 09Z RUC. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-17C TO -19C AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TX AND POSSIBLY S-CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AXIS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR. SHOULD GREATER MOISTURE RETURN OCCUR...TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE GIVEN SIZE/SHAPE OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND EXPECTED DISCRETE NATURE OF THE STORMS. NWD EXTENSION OF SEVERE THREAT ALONG COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK WILL BE LIMITED BY MEAGER SURFACE DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT INTO THE EVENING. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED STORMS NEAR MID LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO ERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK LATER TODAY. /LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/ PROXIMITY OF VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...60+F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED ...BUT COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INCREASE A TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 16:03:31 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 11:03:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504251613.j3PGDRsK026663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251607 SWODY1 SPC AC 251605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 W VCT 15 SSE AUS 35 NW ACT 25 WNW OKC 25 WSW BVO 40 SSW JLN 45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 30 ESE JCT 20 NNW BWD 30 W ABI 40 NW GDP 25 SW DMN 20 NE TUS 55 SSW PRC 55 SE TPH 45 N SVE 30 N LMT 40 SSE RDM 35 N BNO 40 ENE OWY 15 SSW SLC 35 NE VEL 60 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 30 NW LHX 40 SW DHT 10 WSW AMA 65 SW GAG 15 SE ICT 20 S MHK 10 SSW CNK 35 W LNK 15 SSW LSE 20 NE LNR 25 WNW RFD 15 ENE SPI 25 NNW SLO 25 ESE MVN 15 SW OWB 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10 SSE PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... SRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TX BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THUS BY TONIGHT STRONG POLAR JET WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX TO SERN STATES. THIS WILL PUT IN PLACE A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STRONG SHEAR THE RELATIVELY COLD LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER ACROSS SRN PLAINS TODAY ENHANCING INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. BOTH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON BOTH THE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND A DEVELOPING DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS OK/TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW GOOD SURFACE HEATING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS WRN OK INTO CENTRAL TX. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SE AND THEN EWD ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY LINE SETS UP FROM CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS NCENTRAL TX TO NEAR DRT. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG ERN OK UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG NRN TX AHEAD OF DRY LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 60F. SURFACE INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE WITH THE 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT ...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE SHEAR...PARTICULARLY N TX WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK IF MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. STORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP S/SEWD THRU ERN TX INTO THE EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER. ADDITIONALLY STORMS OVER SRN OK/NRN TX ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A MCS/SQUALL LINE AND CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. AGAIN AMOUNT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY SRN MS/LA. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Apr 25 19:48:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 14:48:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504251958.j3PJw6H0000607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251955 SWODY1 SPC AC 251953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE BWD 35 SSE SPS 10 WNW ADM 35 N PRX 30 NNW GGG 45 WNW LFK 30 ESE TPL 25 WSW TPL 35 ESE BWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 30 W VCT 45 NNW SAT 55 WNW MWL 45 W OKC 15 NW PNC 35 SW JLN 45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 25 SSE JCT 45 E SJT 65 NNW ABI 30 E CNM 25 SW DMN 20 NE TUS 55 SSW PRC 55 SE TPH 45 N SVE 30 N LMT 40 SSE RDM 35 N BNO 40 ENE OWY 15 SSW SLC 35 NE VEL 60 SW LAR 15 ESE DEN 30 NW LHX 40 SW DHT 10 WSW AMA 65 SW GAG 15 SE ICT 20 S MHK 10 SSW CNK 35 W LNK 15 SSW LSE 20 NE LNR 25 WNW RFD 20 N BMI 10 ESE MTO 35 SSE BMG 30 N BNA 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10 SSE PFN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N CENTRAL TX AND A SMALL PART OF S CENTRAL OK THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK SWD THROUGH N CENTRAL TX AND SWWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SECOND VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FOLLOWING ANOTHER VORTICITY MAX THAT IS MOVING ACROSS SERN OK. 500 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX PANHANDLE SYSTEM ARE AROUND -20C...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC AND WRF MODELS IS COMBINING WITH SURFACE HEATING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN WI SWWD INTO N CENTRAL KS SWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ENHANCING LIFT OVER OK/TX/AR/LA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... HAVE UPGRADED PARTS OF N CENTRAL TX TO MODERATE RISK AS SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AIR MASS OVER N CENTRAL TX CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SFC BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 100 M2/S2 INDICATING FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR /55 KT 0-6KM SHEAR/ TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS...AS SFC LOW MOVES EWD IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/TX RED RIVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 682 AND 683 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ..MCCARTHY.. 04/25/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 00:54:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 19:54:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504260104.j3Q14Alw001327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260101 SWODY1 SPC AC 260100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 40 SSW LFK 25 NNW ACT 25 NNE FTW 35 N ADM 15 SW TUL 45 SSW JLN 45 WNW HOT 30 W GLH 25 ENE JAN 45 WSW SEM 30 SSE SEM 35 SSW TOI 25 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S VCT 55 SSE AUS 20 W TPL 25 WSW SEP 20 SW ABI 20 W MAF 25 SW DMN 55 NE PHX 30 SSE LAS 50 SE TPH 15 WNW EKO 40 E OWY TWF 15 WNW MLD 40 NNE VEL 25 ESE GUC 30 WNW RTN 40 SW DHT AMA 65 SW GAG 15 ESE ICT 30 NNW BRL 25 SE MLI 20 NNW BMI 10 ESE MTO 20 ENE EVV 30 N BNA 20 WNW RMG 10 SW LGC 10 SSE PFN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/ERN TX EWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA... ...SRN PLAINS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998MB LOW VCNTY KADM WITH A DRYLINE SWD THROUGH KDFW THEN SWWD TO JUST SE OF KDRT. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-1700 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM ECNTRL OK INTO DEEP S TX. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SEWD THROUGH SRN OK/NRN TX WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. EARLIER TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE VCNTY KSEP-KFTW HAVE MOVED ESEWD TOWARD THE PINEY WOODS OF ERN TX AND HAVE WEAKENED SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE ATOP A COOLER AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS ECNTRL TX. ELSEWHERE...THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVER SCNTRL OK VCNTY I-35 CORRIDOR NEWD TO NEAR KTUL AND TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FARTHER S...STRONGER CAP...WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SURFACE DIVERGENCE HAVE LIMITED CU DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM INITIATION DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS CNTRL/SCNTRL TX. OVERNIGHT...H925-H85 LLJ WILL VEER AND BLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM WRN AR INTO NRN LA. RESULTANT INCREASE IN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AN EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...FROM ERN OK/AR INTO ERN TX AND NRN/CNTRL LA. ASIDE FROM A NARROW CORRIDOR OVER ERN OK AND ERN TX...TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. HOWEVER...PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE/STEEP LAPSE RATES ENVIRONMENT FARTHER WEST AND ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. LATER TONIGHT...21Z NAMKF/RUC/SREF ALL SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LLJ SEGMENT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS JET WAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR APPROACHING DEEP S TX AND SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA 09-12Z. THOUGH EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON INCREASING THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S BY MORNING. THIS GIVES RISE TO SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT PCPN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS SRN LA TO SRN AL AFTER 06-09Z. IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD TORNADOES MIGHT OCCUR ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 04:44:56 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Apr 2005 23:44:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504260454.j3Q4spoI003282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260452 SWODY1 SPC AC 260451 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N MLB SRQ ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 10 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 35 NNE MSL RMG ATL 60 SSW AGS SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 35 ESE OLM 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 4OM 35 WNW DLN 50 NNE BPI 35 S RKS 15 ENE U28 30 WNW U17 35 E SGU 35 S U31 35 N RBL EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 15 ENE CRP ...CONT... 20 ENE PSX 20 SW LFK 20 E PRX 65 WNW ABI 40 W LBB 20 SW AMA 45 NNW CDS 35 WNW OKC 20 SSW BVO 10 WSW SZL 20 NNW BRL 20 SW RFD 20 WSW FWA 25 W CMH 10 SE HLG 25 SE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...THE DEEP SOUTH AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE FROM N TX EARLY TUE...ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO THE SERN STATES TUE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE SEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA. ...LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA... RATHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED WITH MANY EVOLVING MESOSCALE DETAILS CONTRIBUTING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM. LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN GULF COASTAL STATES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A H5 JET AND THE APPROACHING N TX DISTURBANCE. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/INCREASING TSTMS WITHIN THIS BROAD ZONE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. BUT...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MS-SWRN GA BY LATE TUE MORNING...WITH 50S INTO CNTRL MS-WCNTRL GA. TSTMS ARE APT TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT ZONE OF CONVECTION. TSTMS SHOULD THEN MOVE ENEWD INTO SRN AL...SWRN GA AND NRN FL TUE AFTERNOON. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH HEATING WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BUT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM...NUMEROUS ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO ONGOING TUE MORNING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FEEDING FROM A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. IF SUBSTANTIAL HEATING CAN OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT CELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD AND TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATER TUE EVENING. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 12:07:10 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 07:07:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504261217.j3QCH4ME002551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261214 SWODY1 SPC AC 261212 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 10 W FMY ...CONT... 40 SE BPT 35 NNE ESF 20 SE GWO 15 N BHM 25 S ATL 55 NW AYS SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 4OM 35 NNE 27U 35 W BPI 40 NNW VEL 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 15 ESE P38 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE RBL EKA ...CONT... ONP 35 ESE OLM 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 15 ENE CRP ...CONT... 20 ENE PSX 40 NNE LFK PRX 65 WNW ABI 60 SSE CVS 40 ENE CVS 55 E AMA 35 WNW OKC 15 NE TUL 25 W TBN 40 NNW ALN 45 N DNV 35 ESE FWA 25 NW ZZV 10 SE HLG 25 SE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH... ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL PRECEED SURFACE COLD FRONT TODAY...WHICH WAS MOVING SEWD OUT OF ERN AR/ERN TX AT 12Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE COASTAL FRONT NOW MOVING WELL INLAND SWRN LA AND EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN LA AND JUST OFF THE MS/AL COAST. MODELS BRING MID/UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY NWD QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH 64+F DEW POINTS LIKELY ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 15Z. GFS AND NAM CONSISTENT IN INCREASING/DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN MS/ERN LA BY 15Z...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS STORMS MOVE QUICKLY EWD WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL LA AT 12Z WHICH IS LIKELY BEGINNING OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. NWD EXTENSION OF STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE INTO THE TN AND OH RIVER VALLEYS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND WARRANT AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES NWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY. SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH SMALL LINES. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROTATING STORMS WILL FAVOR PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/. TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT TODAY GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE THE SWLY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION. WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY THE MID/LATE MORNING. ...FL INTO SRN GA... AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER NEWD INTO GA AND NRN FL TODAY AS MORNING CONVECTION REINFORCES COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE. APPEARS STRONGER...MORE CELLULAR STORMS JUST OFF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST WILL SPREAD EWD AND MAY BRING AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS COASTAL FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY INLAND. THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD A SEVERE THREAT INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NRN FL...WITH LINE SAGGING SWD INTO CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT MAY WANE AFTER DARK...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH SMALL LINES/LEWPS INTO CENTRAL FL GIVEN VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 16:08:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 11:08:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504261618.j3QGIo9J012977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261614 SWODY1 SPC AC 261613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BPT 20 W HEZ 20 SE GWO BHM 25 S ATL 55 NW AYS SSI ...CONT... 25 SSE VRB 10 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 20 S CRP ...CONT... 15 SSW BPT 35 SW GLH 55 NNE GLH 25 WSW MEM 50 SSW JBR 60 SE HRO 20 SW FYV 10 NW TUL 20 WNW BVO 40 S EMP 15 S OTM 10 S DBQ 15 WSW JVL 35 ESE JVL AZO 25 SW CAK 15 WSW PIT 30 ENE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 15 W FCA 15 WNW LVM 35 ESE EVW 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 35 SW BCE 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE RBL EKA ...CONT... 40 S ONP 20 S SEA 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE DHT 15 SE CSM 40 N ADM 20 NNW DUA 45 NNW DAL 70 WNW ABI 35 S LBB 35 SSE CVS 30 NE 4CR 35 NE ONM 35 WSW TCS 35 SSE SOW 60 NW GUP 10 NW DRO 30 WNW TAD 50 ENE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLD UPPER LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO SWD THRU WRN GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ROTATING THRU BOTTOM OF TROUGH ATTM TRANSLATING ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY/MIDDLE GULF COAST TO SERN U.S. TONIGHT. AIR MASS RECOVERY PROCESS ONGOING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREADING INLAND ACROSS NERN GULF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT AND THE UPPER SUPPORT ROTATING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...ONLY EXPECT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INLAND PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. ONGOING MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NCENTRAL AL WSWWD ACROSS SRN MS REFLECTS THE VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV TROUGH NOW ROTATING ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER NRN GULF WHERE RICHER GULF AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE COUPLED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR. SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MDT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE. WITH SUCH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...60-70KT FROM SFC-6KM... EVEN A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION. WHILE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY COOL AND STEEP...THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DOMINANT WLY COMPONENT LIMITING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE NEARER THE NERN GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW HEATING PROCESS AHEAD OF STORMS...HOWEVER MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG COULD BE AVAILABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON NRN FL INTO SRN GA/SERN AL. SINCE THE SHEAR AND HELICITY IS VERY FAVORABLE...SUPERCELLS COULD EASILY FORM ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN SUFFICIENT CAPE. THERE WILL BE A DECREASING THREAT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT AS THE LINES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND SE ACROSS SC AND FL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY NERN GULF REGION. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Apr 26 19:52:42 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 14:52:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504262002.j3QK2aCk029621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261959 SWODY1 SPC AC 261957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 10 W FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW HUM 45 NW GPT 35 ESE MEI 20 NNE MGM 15 E LGC 55 NW AYS SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 15 W FCA 15 WNW LVM 35 ESE EVW 15 NE PUC 40 NW U17 35 SW BCE 70 NNW BIH 50 ESE RBL EKA ...CONT... 40 S ONP 20 S SEA 35 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 20 S CRP ...CONT... 7R4 40 NE HEZ 25 SW UOX 25 WSW MEM 50 SSW JBR 60 SE HRO 20 SW FYV 10 NW TUL 20 WNW BVO 35 SSW EMP 10 NNW MKC 20 NW DSM 35 W ALO 25 NW DBQ 15 WSW JVL 35 ESE JVL AZO 25 SW CAK 15 WSW PIT 30 ENE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE EHA 15 SE CSM 40 N ADM 20 NNW DUA 45 NNW DAL 70 WNW ABI 55 ENE HOB 50 N HOB 35 ESE 4CR 20 E ONM 25 N DMN 30 NNW SAD 60 NW GUP 10 NW DRO 30 WNW TAD 20 ESE EHA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS MS/AL AND THE TN VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES...REACHING SC/NC REGION BY 00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE MS/AL TROUGH WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE INLAND RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY FROM SERN MS TO SRN GA AND CENTRAL/NRN FL. THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN LA/SERN MS TO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN GA TO CENTRAL FL. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SSWWD TO SERN MS/SRN LA...WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NWRN GA TO SRN AL AND THEN WWD TO SERN MS/SERN LA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGHS SPREADS EWD ATOP DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NERN GULF AND SPREAD EWD INTO SRN GA AND NRN/ CENTRAL FL. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF MS TO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE STRONGEST. ..PETERS.. 04/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 05:32:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 00:32:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504280542.j3S5gWh7029178@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280540 SWODY1 SPC AC 280539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE BVO 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 25 NNW PAH 35 W HOP 25 NNE MEM 40 NNE TYR 35 E DAL 10 W DUA 25 NW MLC 20 SSE BVO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 25 NNE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 SE OLM YKM 15 NW PDT BKE 10 NE BOI 35 NE SUN 35 SW JAC 35 NW RWL 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW MCK CNK 40 SW UIN 10 ENE IND 10 E CMH MGW DCA 10 SSE RIC 15 ENE RDU GWO 65 E ACT 35 SSE SEP 15 NNE LTS 35 NNW AMA 15 E LVS ONM 80 NE SAD PHX 10 W DAG BFL 35 W PRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WRN KY... ...ARKLATEX TO WRN KY... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRI-MODEL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY. IT APPEARS ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN KS INTO NERN OK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 12Z AND EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT SHOULD TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN MO/AR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY VEERING LLJ THAT SHOULD FORCE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR...WHILE LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SPEED MAX. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PURE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SWD. LATEST TRAJECTORIES OFF THE WRN GULF SUGGEST LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL AR BY PEAK HEATING. WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY. DESPITE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. WELL AFTER 00Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH ERN OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 12:19:26 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 07:19:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504281229.j3SCTrOp014250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281227 SWODY1 SPC AC 281226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 25 NNW PAH 35 W HOP 25 NNE MEM 15 SW TXK 15 S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S EKA 25 NNE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 SE OLM YKM 15 NW PDT BKE 10 NE BOI 35 NE SUN 35 SW JAC 35 NW RWL 40 ENE CYS 35 WSW MCK CNK 40 SW UIN 10 ENE IND 10 E CMH MGW DCA 10 SSE RIC 15 ENE RDU 45 ESE GWO 65 E ACT 35 SSE SEP 15 NNE LTS 35 NNW AMA 15 E LVS ONM 80 NE SAD PHX 10 W DAG 35 S BFL 15 SSE VBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY... MORNING MCS DEVELOPING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS LLJ AXIS VEERS. ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS ALONG WRN EDGE OF THIS MCS INTO THE MID MORNING. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH THE MORNING STORMS AS ACTIVITY OUTRUNS FEED OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR BEGINNING TO MAKE A NWD RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TX. COMBINATION OF MORNING RAIN AND ADVECTION WITHIN SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AN AXIS OF UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS AR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY. DESPITE VEERED FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z...THEN SPREAD NEWD WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. AFTER 00Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH ERN OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG NOSE OF 35-45 KT SLY LLJ. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP 10C H85 DEW POINTS SUGGEST MODERATE MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP...AND SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 16:13:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 11:13:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504281623.j3SGNRBC006070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281619 SWODY1 SPC AC 281618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 15 E PAH 55 SW CKV 40 W MSL 30 NNW GLH 15 S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 35 SE RBL 25 NE MHS 65 ESE BNO 35 N SUN 45 SW JAC 20 ESE RKS 15 E SNY 35 E MCK 40 S BIE 25 NNE MKC 20 E CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20 SW HKY 15 NE RMG 35 SSE BHM 50 NE JAN 65 E ACT 25 SSE SEP 35 SSW ADM 50 NE OKC 35 E GAG 40 SSE EHA 15 SSE RTN 20 WSW LVS 25 WNW GNT 35 ESE PRC 40 SSW EED 30 W DAG 25 W PMD OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE NEL 20 ENE PSB 15 W BFD 30 NW BUF ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 15 SE SLK 15 SSE RUT 15 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF UPPER LOW CENTERED IN MANITOBA...WILL ROTATE SEWD INTO THE PLAIN STATES TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN THE EJECTION AND WEAKENING OF AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN CA...AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO NM TONIGHT. ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... MCS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS DECREASE AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SURFACE LOW...LOCATED NEAR OKC AT MID MORNING...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO NWRN AR BY 00Z. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL AR AND WILL SHIFT NWD TO NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MORNING SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW...60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEAR A ACT-LFK SHOULD ADVECT NEWD AT LEAST INTO WRN AR THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS... STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 00Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...MUCAPES VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING AS COOLING BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS CAP AROUND 850 MB. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NERN AR/SRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO WRN TN/KY. AFTER 06Z...UPSTREAM SPEED MAX/EXIT REGION AHEAD OF WEAKENING CA TROUGH WILL APPROACH OK. THIS WILL SHARPEN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RESULT IN LOW LEVEL JET TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KT ACROSS ERN OK. STRENGTHENING UVV FROM THE LOWER/UPPER JETS ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK IN ERN OK...WITH A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ..IMY/JEWELL.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Apr 28 19:52:03 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 14:52:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504282002.j3SK2UVb027855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282000 SWODY1 SPC AC 281958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 10 SSE TBN 15 E PAH 55 SW CKV 40 W MSL 30 NNW GLH 15 S PRX 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 35 SE RBL 25 NE MHS 65 ESE BNO 35 N SUN 45 SW JAC 20 ESE RKS 15 E SNY 35 E MCK 40 S BIE 25 NNE MKC 20 E CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20 SW HKY 15 NE RMG 35 SSE BHM 50 NE JAN 65 E ACT 25 SSE SEP 35 SSW ADM 50 NE OKC 35 E GAG 40 SSE EHA 15 SSE RTN 20 WSW LVS 25 WNW GNT 35 ESE PRC 40 SSW EED 30 W DAG 25 W PMD OXR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE NEL 20 ENE PSB 15 W BFD 30 NW BUF ...CONT... 35 NW PBG 15 SE SLK 15 SSE RUT 15 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO THE MID MS VALLEY... SHORT WAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/ERN OK WILL MOVE EWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NV APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING EWD AT 80-90 KT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 60-65 KT FROM THE SFC-6 KM ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE TX PANHANDLE SPEED MAX. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NERN OK...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WEST CENTRAL TX. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SRN MO...WHILE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AR TO AROUND FSM AND THEN NWWD TO THE LOW. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 IN SERN OK EXPECTED TO REACH WRN AR BY 00Z. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WITHIN MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPEAR TO BE LIMITING A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CU/TCU. HOWEVER...THIS SUPPRESSION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION EXPECTED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER INTO NWRN AR BETWEEN 21-00Z AS THE ASCENT/COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE TX PANHANDLE SPEED MAX SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. IF STORMS DEVELOP PRIOR TO 00Z...THEN SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD INTO WRN KY/TN. THIS UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE SPEED MAX MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AND WAA ALONG A STRONG LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN TX TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...RESULTING IN HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO WRN AR/SRN MO LATE TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN NV TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. A SWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FROM CENTRAL TX INTO ERN OK. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL JETS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL. ..PETERS.. 04/28/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 00:48:45 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 19:48:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504290059.j3T0xB88024002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290057 SWODY1 SPC AC 290055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU APR 28 2005 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TUL 15 N JLN 15 SE TBN 35 NNE POF DYR 35 N MEM 25 N LIT 50 SE PGO 30 SSW MLC 30 W MKO 20 N TUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP 30 E MKC 25 S CMH 25 NW EKN LYH 10 NE GSO 20 SW HKY 40 NW AHN 30 SSE UOX 35 SSE TXK 40 SSW ADM 40 S OKC 10 NNW PNC EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MRY 20 ENE TVL 25 E BAM 20 WNW OGD 35 SW RWL 30 NW IML 45 NNE HLC 35 SW RSL 40 NNW GAG 45 S EHA 55 SW CAO 25 SE GUP FLG 10 W EED 30 E EDW 10 SSW OXR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...ACROSS SRN MO INTO CENTRAL AR... ...AR/ERN OK/SRN MO... BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOISTEN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO NRN AR AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT. RESULTANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CURRENTLY EXHIBIT WEAKLY CAPPED...YET ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PARCELS...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHALLOW CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING ACROSS WRN-NRN AR...MOST LIKELY STUNTED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND BACKING LLJ INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR LATER TONIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN AR BEFORE SPREADING EWD INTO WRN TN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 07:01:23 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 02:01:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504290711.j3T7BmtE023876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290553 SWODY1 SPC AC 290552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW LIT 55 SW JBR 30 SW DYR 10 NNE MKL 50 NNE MSL 25 SSE MSL 45 SW CBM 55 NNE HEZ 25 W MLU 20 NW ELD 20 SW LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT 50 S LFK 15 SSW GGG 35 WSW TXK 20 NNW PGO 25 ESE TUL 25 WSW JLN 20 N SGF 45 NE UNO 25 N PAH 30 SW LUK 45 WNW HTS 20 E JKL 40 ENE CHA 25 SE ANB 30 SSW MGM 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 40 SSE AUS 40 ENE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 WSW TYR 45 SSE DUA 25 NNW OKC 25 ESE P28 10 ENE HUT 10 WNW OJC SPI 15 ENE MIE 25 SE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE EWN 30 WNW OAJ 30 S SOP 40 ENE CAE 30 ESE AGS 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 40 SW 4HV 35 NNE MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 N TCS 60 ESE PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SVE 10 S RBL 40 E EKA 30 S EUG 20 NW RDM 45 ESE BKE 20 SSE BOI 40 SSE OWY 25 SSE BAM 25 NNW NFL 30 SSE SVE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA...CNTRL/SERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NWRN/NRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SERN TX TO NWRN GA INTO KY... ...MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES... DEAMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS RECOVERING WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTING THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE FINALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN NWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX...SRN LA WHERE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOTED AT 05Z. STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO AR WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO THE MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN OK/NRN AR WILL AID INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE DAY UTILIZING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REINFORCING E-W BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS AR INTO WRN KY. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM SECTOR INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AR UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND THE NEED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN AR IN PARTICULAR APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VEERING PROFILES AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR OR BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES. LASTLY...EVENING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS...HOWEVER STRONG FOCUS ALONG BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS MS/AL INTO WRN GA BY MORNING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 12:32:00 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 07:32:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504291242.j3TCgVWf015818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291238 SWODY1 SPC AC 291237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LIT 55 SW JBR 30 SW DYR 15 NNE MKL 35 S BNA HSV CBM 50 NNE HEZ 20 SSE SHV 25 N SHV LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 40 SSE AUS 40 ENE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 WSW TYR 45 SSE DUA 25 NNW OKC 25 ESE P28 10 ENE HUT 10 WNW OJC SPI 15 ENE MIE 25 SE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E EWN 30 SSW FLO 60 W SAV 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 40 SW 4HV 35 NNE MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 N TCS 60 ESE PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE SAC 10 S RBL 35 WSW MHS 30 S EUG 50 NNE RDM 45 ESE BKE 20 SSE BOI 40 SSE OWY 25 SSE BAM 35 SE TVL 40 ESE SAC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LIKELY PRODUCING A LOCALIZED OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA/TN/MS/AL. ...AR/TN/MS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO TX/OK...AND ON THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS. SOUTHERN END OF ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AR...SOUTHERN TN...AND NORTHERN MS WITH A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...AR/LA/TN/MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND POCKETS OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD WEAKEN CAP OVER THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 21Z ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA AND INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS BY EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM MORNING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AR...WEST TN...AND NORTHERN MS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAY POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ WITH ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT. CONVECTION MAY ALSO ORGANIZE IN AN MCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO MIDDLE TN/NORTHWEST AL WITH A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 15:32:15 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 10:32:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504291542.j3TFgdKB003114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291540 SWODY1 SPC AC 291538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 15 SSW HOT 40 SW JBR 15 NNE MKL 30 SSE BNA 15 NW GAD 25 W TCL 35 SE MLU 20 SSE SHV 25 N SHV TXK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 50 SSE DAL 25 NW PRX 25 SSE MKO 10 S JLN 35 N SGF 20 ENE JEF 35 NNE ALN 15 S MIE 35 SSE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HSE 40 NNW FLO 20 SSE MCN 10 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO 70 WNW WMC SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 45 SSE U17 15 NW 4BL 30 SW GJT 35 N MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 WSW ONM 60 ESE PRC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS MOVING IN FAST WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN STATES AS LARGE POLAR LOW REMAINS OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AR WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH ENTERING SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BE PRIMARY FEATURE SUPPORTING DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TN VALLEY. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM KY WSWWD ACROSS NRN AR THEN INTO N TX WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW NCENTRAL TX. WARM SECTOR WILL RAPIDLY WARM AND DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN STATES TODAY AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING INLAND. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGINS DEEPENING TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WIND MAX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... CURRENT ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN AR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS INTO TN VALLEY. WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AND CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING SURFACE BASED...SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAP FURTHER W WILL DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN AR WHERE MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE TO S OF E/W BOUNDARIES. WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW VICINITY OF BOUNDARIES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW FROM SERN AR ENEWD ACROSS MS INTO AL AND SRN TN. ADDITIONALLY SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND OVERNIGHT AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION EVOLVES MORE INTO BOWS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAINTAINING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH THE INFLUX OF UNSTABLE GULF AIR. WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE ONCE STORMS EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT...STRONG SHEAR AND AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Apr 29 20:01:49 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 15:01:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504292012.j3TKCDe9022897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292006 SWODY1 SPC AC 292005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TXK 15 SSW HOT 40 SW JBR 15 NNE MKL 30 SSE BNA 15 NW GAD 35 NNE MEI 30 NNE HEZ 35 SSW SHV 25 NNW SHV TXK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BPT LFK GGG 30 WNW TXK HRO UNO CGI OWB 50 ENE BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 50 SSE DAL 25 NW PRX 25 SSE MKO 10 S JLN 35 N SGF 20 ENE JEF 35 NNE ALN 15 S MIE 35 SSE MFD 20 NW AOO 30 WNW ILG 20 SSW ACY ...CONT... 25 W HSE 40 NNW FLO 20 SSE MCN 10 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO 70 WNW WMC SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE PRC 40 WSW GCN 45 SSE U17 15 NW 4BL 30 SW GJT 35 N MTJ 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 60 W CVS 35 WSW ONM 60 ESE PRC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...AND NORTHERN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK...FROM EAST TX ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A LEAD SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO WRN TX. THIS LEAD TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AR/LA BY 00Z...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA...AND THEN EWD INTO MS/TN. MID LEVEL WINDS OVER ERN TX PER WIND PROFILER DATA AT LEADBETTER AND PALESTINE TX SHOWED BACKING AND INCREASING WINDS DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX NEAR SAT TO DRT...WHILE A COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO NRN MS AND TN TO KY. SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS OBSERVED IN SHV/JAN 18Z SOUNDINGS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE WEAK AND STRONG FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY UNTIL AROUND 00Z...SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN MECHANISM TO WEAKEN THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SHV SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/ERN TX. THUS...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z OR SOONER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST...AND THEN SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 18Z NAM SUGGESTED THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AR/LA INTO MS. AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/ TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...NRN AR INTO WRN KY/PORTIONS WRN TN... CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL AR INTO KY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 04/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 00:52:57 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2005 19:52:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504300103.j3U13NpH002769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300101 SWODY1 SPC AC 300059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 20 SSE LFK 15 SE GGG 35 SE TXK PBF 30 SSW DYR 10 SW HOP 55 E BWG 40 SW LOZ 30 W TYS RMG MGM 40 NNW PNS 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG 25 ESE GSO 35 SE AND 10 NE AQQ ...CONT... 45 E PSX 10 NNE VCT 35 ESE SAT 30 W AUS 35 SW TYR 20 NNW TXK 55 NNW LIT 15 NNW CGI 30 NW EVV 55 W LUK 15 N UNI 10 S MGW 30 NW DCA 15 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVE 10 S RBL 25 WSW MHS 40 NNW MFR 60 ENE RDM 25 SW BKE 15 WNW BOI 15 NNE OWY 30 NW EKO 70 WNW WMC SVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SAD 30 SSE FLG 50 SSE PGA 35 W FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 E GUC 25 SSW PUB 35 N TCC 10 NE ROW 45 NNW ELP 40 NNW SAD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO ERN TN... ...GULF COAST AND TN VALLEY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE GULF COAST REGION INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION REMAINS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ROUGHLY NEAR 800MB FROM LA INTO AL. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR SUPPRESSING PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN TX. AS A RESULT...FRONTAL FORCING APPEARS NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. CURRENT BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SERN AR INTO NWRN MS MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWLY MOISTENING LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STORM MODE EVOLUTION MAY ULTIMATELY SUPPORT A HIGHER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA INTO WRN MS. LATEST THINKING IS A SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 04-06Z BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK LATE IN THE PERIOD. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE ERN TN VALLEY DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 05:24:02 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 00:24:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504300534.j3U5YN7o000670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300532 SWODY1 SPC AC 300530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE HUM MEI 30 NW BHM 45 SW TYS BLF 25 SSE EKN 25 ESE AOO 30 N CXY 20 W ABE TTN ACY ...CONT... 35 ENE ORL 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E IDA 35 W LAR 45 WNW GLD 25 NE GCK 50 SSE DDC 20 S GAG 50 E AMA 50 N TCC 45 ESE DRO 20 SW 4BL 40 S ELY 10 S MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 SSW SLE 50 NW DLS 30 ESE PDT 35 E IDA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 10 NNE JCT 30 NNW CLL 30 N BPT 35 NNW BTR 20 SW CBM 25 NNE LOZ 35 WSW DUJ 25 WNW ELM 15 E UCA 15 SW LEB 15 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES... LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO VERIFY 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...EJECTING EWD AND DEAMPIFYING SOMEWHAT AS IT TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE GULF STATES AS VERY MOIST PROFILES DEVELOP AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CENTRAL/WRN GULF BUOYS HAVE MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS AIRMASS WILL RETURN INLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN LA INTO NWRN GA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AS INFLUENCE OF UPSTREAM TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...AN EXPANDING MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF STATES DUE TO REASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS GIVEN THE EXPECTED STORM MODE...HOWEVER INCREASING DEW POINTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF UPDRAFTS CAN INITIATE INDEPENDENT OF AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS CAN INDEED INITIATE. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM MODEL INSISTS LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO SERN PA BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MOIST BIAS OF THIS MODEL AND ITS PAST PERFORMANCE THE LAST FEW RUNS...IT APPEARS DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 DEG...EXCEPT ALONG A NARROW AXIS INLAND ACROSS CNTRL VA INTO NC. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DUE TO WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AS WEAK SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO PA. IF PARTIAL CLEARING CAN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WOULD DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES WARRANT PROBABILITIES SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IF BOUNDARY LAYER STORMS DO INDEED MATERIALIZE. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 12:13:24 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 07:13:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504301223.j3UCNmwS019547@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301219 SWODY1 SPC AC 301218 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ORL 20 NNW PIE ...CONT... 25 SSE HUM 40 E LUL 30 ENE ANB 25 NE AVL 10 WNW LYH 25 SSW NHK 10 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E IDA 35 W LAR 45 WNW GLD 25 NE GCK 50 SSE DDC 20 S GAG 50 E AMA 50 N TCC 45 ESE DRO 20 SW 4BL 40 S ELY 10 S MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 SSW SLE 50 NW DLS 30 ESE PDT 35 E IDA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 35 WSW BWD 35 NW ACT 35 NW LFK POE 35 W MCB 25 S CBM 30 SE LOZ 10 NW LBE 25 WNW ELM 15 E UCA 15 SW LEB 15 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AR/MS...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER WEST TX. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AL INTO NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. ...MS/AL/GA/FL TODAY... LARGE SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN MS INTO NORTH GA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR ORGANIZATION MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS AL/GA/NORTH FL. SEVERAL BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ARE NOTED IN LINE...SUGGESTING AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. ...SC/NC/SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON... NORTHERN END OF SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS INTO EXTREME WESTERN NC. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. ...EAST/SOUTH TX... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DRT AREA TO NORTH OF HOU. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF LRD. ALL OF THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT...AND ARE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. ..HART/BANACOS.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 16:06:21 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 11:06:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504301616.j3UGGfHr028337@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301610 SWODY1 SPC AC 301608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DAB 50 N PIE ...CONT... 45 E 7R4 60 SW SEM 40 SE MCN 30 SSE CLT 10 N LYH 15 SSW NHK 10 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 50 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 ESE HDO 15 N AUS 50 W LFK 30 NNW POE 20 NE HEZ 20 WNW BHM 40 NE TYS 35 SSE LBE 20 SE BFD 35 SSW UCA 20 ENE PSF BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI 50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN U.S. WITH CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING OVER NRN ONTARIO. FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN STG WLYS CURRENTLY ERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THE DIMINISHING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL TEMPER SOMEWHAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... REF MCD 724 SQUALL LINE HAS MOSTLY WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS WRN CAROLINAS ATTM...BUT WITH HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS LINE CONTINUES EWD. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF-SHORE AROUND 00Z ENDING SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COAST... WRN EXTENSION OF SQUALL LINE HAS SLOWED AND EXTENDS WWD FROM WRN FL PANHANDLE TO SERN LA. WITH APPROACH OF THE S/W FROM TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO SRN MS AND SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED RESULTING IN JUST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE SRN GA INTO ERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE SHEAR REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AND RICH GULF AIR MASS IS SPREADING INLAND. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Apr 30 19:40:40 2005 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Apr 2005 14:40:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200504301951.j3UJoxZ9029386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301948 SWODY1 SPC AC 301946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 302000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 30 N TLH 35 SSW SAV 50 W CHS 20 NNW FAY 10 SSE DCA 30 SE DOV ...CONT... 10 NW DAB 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 30 SSE FMY ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 SSW LUL 15 E ANB 40 NE TYS AOO 25 WSW IPT 30 ESE BGM 20 E PSF BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI 50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA... ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... WHILE ONE SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD INTO ERN NC...ANOTHER LINE WAS NEAR THE SC/GA COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS AND MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE LINES TO PRODUCE A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR THE GA/SC COAST... THE WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST IN ERN NC UNTIL AROUND 00Z. ...NRN FL PANHANDLE... WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE IN SRN STREAM WAS LOCATED IN SERN TX AT 19Z MOVING EWD AT 45 KT. WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM NEAR TLH SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE MS COAST. THE NRN GULF CONVECTION IS INGESTING RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ THAN IS LOCATED ACROSS THE MAINLAND...AND IS RESULTING IN THE STORMS TO PROPAGATE SEWD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE GULF. TONIGHT...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES...WORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ...AL/GA... ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCAPES INCREASING AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NWRN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL. HOWEVER ...MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO WARM AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NRN GULF. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SERN TX APPROACHES...WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.