[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201934
SWODY1
SPC AC 201929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW
FAR 40 S 9V9 10 NE IML 50 SW IML 15 SSE AKO 30 NW AKO 25 NE AIA 35 W
PIR 50 ESE BIS 30 WSW JMS 40 WSW FAR 65 SSW FAR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 25 SSW MSP
25 WNW OMA 25 SSW EAR 40 S HLC 10 W DDC 20 NNE GAG 30 SSW LTS 55 SSE
MAF 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP ALM ROW 25 NE TCC 25 SE PUB 25
NNE COS 35 E ASE 25 E MTJ 10 W 4BL 20 SW BCE 25 SSW P38 50 SE TPH 55
NW BIH 25 WNW TVL 65 NNE SVE BNO 35 NE BKE 90 NW FCA ...CONT... 40
NW CTB 30 NNW HLN 35 E 3HT 45 ENE SHR 15 NE 81V 45 E REJ 35 NNE Y22
55 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS...

...NERN CO/WRN NEB/SD/SERN ND...
SHARP FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED WITH DEEP LAYER AND STRONG SSWLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOIST ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND PERSISTENT FORCING
FOR ASCENT...SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS FROM NERN
CO INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONGEST MASS INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
FROM NCNTRL NEB NNEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
SLOW MOVING LINEAR MCS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTENSIFIES COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST DIURNAL
INSTABILITY. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE TENDENCY
FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE UNDERCUT BY SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. LATEST MLCAPE
WAS ON THE ORDER OF 250-600 J/KG AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...
DEGREE OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS INTO THE EVENING.

...ERN CO/WRN KS...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAKER FORCING ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA...MARGINAL SHEAR AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
RESULT IN STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...OR PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL REPORT OR
TWO.

..CARBIN.. 09/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.