[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
ILM 20 E RWI RIC 40 E CHO 45 NE CHO 10 SW MRB 25 N HGR CXY 20 SW ABE
10 NNW PHL 30 ENE SBY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LNK
OMA 10 ESE LWD 45 S IRK 25 S SZL CNU 20 NE ICT 15 WSW SLN LNK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS GSB 55 SW
RIC 10 SE SHD 35 W SHD MGW IPT PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PSX 30 SW AUS
25 NNE ABI 25 NNW SPS 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL LFK 10 E LFT 20 N BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 10 ESE DDC 10 ENE
HLC EAR MHE HON 10 NE ATY MSP 30 W LSE 15 ENE DBQ 35 W SPI 15 N SGF
10 SE BVO END GAG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 15 NW DAG 55
NNW DRA 30 NW SGU GCN GUP ABQ 65 W CVS CNM 70 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 10 S S80 75
E 4LW 10 SW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SRQ 15 NNE MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY....

...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES IN AND AROUND THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL
COOLING OF TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL TORNADOES WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST OF WEAKENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE
EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

...EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...IN WAKE OF TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ONGOING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INHIBITION IS WEAK DUE TO COOLER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE TO THAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR/ABOVE 90F...IT MAY STILL
BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING.  THIS WILL OCCUR ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FORCING/INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO OVERCOME CAP...SUPPORTING INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AIDED BY DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET
AXES...A SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BASED
ABOVE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER.  PRIMARILY DUE TO
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS
POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA/CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ARE PROGGED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY 18/09-12Z.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOW SPREADING INTO THE OLYMPICS/ CASCADES
IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED/ BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

...FLORIDA...
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 18/06Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

..KERR.. 09/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.