[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131603
SWODY1
SPC AC 131558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
ELO 15 SE MKT 40 WSW FOD 30 SSE HSI 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML
55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 30 E LRD 45
S SAT 40 ENE AUS 15 W GGG 45 NE LIT 10 WSW POF 35 WSW MTO 55 S CGX
20 SSE SBN 10 SSE FDY 20 NNW UNI 15 E BLF 15 SW GSP AGS 40 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 ENE CMX CWA 20 SW
OTM 20 NW EMP 15 WSW RSL 15 NNW GCK 35 WSW AMA 45 N HOB 55 SW INK 50
W MRF ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 50 WNW SAD 10 ENE SOW 25 WSW FMN 35 N CEZ
15 SW GJT 30 SSE VEL 50 NW CAG 25 NE RWL CPR 35 E RIW 40 NW RIW 20
SSE IDA 50 SSE BKE 30 ESE DLS 20 NW AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER /NOW BETWEEN ABR AND JMS/
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOME AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING WITH A
SERIES OF FRONTS/TROUGHS OVER THE REGION.  MAIN COLD FRONT APPEARS
TO DRAPE FROM FAR NWRN MN SWD INTO LOW CENTER AND THEN MORE WWD INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TROUGH EXTENDED
SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD TODAY INTO CENTRAL MN/FAR ERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN MN INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NEB LATER TONIGHT.  OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR MOST
OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK. COMBINATION
OF DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AND SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGEST NEAR THE FRONT/LOW CENTER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
OVER NWRN/CENTRAL MN AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN SD.  FARTHER SSWWD ALONG
THE FRONT...VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE WEAKER.  THIS SUGGESTS
DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN NEB INTO SERN SD/NERN IA/SWRN MN MAY BE SLOWER
TO OCCUR AND TIED TO STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT /MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 21-00Z/.  THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
DARK.

FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
TORNADOES.  ELSEWHERE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH BASED.

...TN VALLEY REGION...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL LIKELY AGAIN FOCUS
AN AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY.  WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS TODAY.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.