From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 00:41:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 19:41:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409010042.i810ghL16042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010039 SWODY1 SPC AC 010036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 60 NNW GBN 25 SSE IGM 60 NNE IGM 25 NE CNY 45 SW LAR 10 WSW MHN 45 SSW MHE 30 ESE FAR 15 NE INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 50 NNW ABI 50 S BWD 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 25 SW PSK 20 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80 60 WNW BOI 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MN SWWD INTO NEB... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO CNTRL NEB. STRONG HEATING ALONG NEB PORTION OF BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR LOCAL CAP REMOVAL AND INITIATION OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST N OF THE PLATTE RIVER. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. FARTHER NE...AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY N OF MCW WITH ADDITIONAL TCU NOTED TO THE W ACROSS N-CNTRL IA. 00Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR /I.E. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KTS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER WAS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A STRONGER CAP. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN MN INTO N-CNTRL IA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD TEND TO DISCOURAGE ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 05:14:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 00:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409010516.i815GYL00666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010512 SWODY1 SPC AC 010509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 45 SSW COD 40 WNW OGD 50 ENE U31 55 SE TVL 25 NNE SAC 40 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 E PDX 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 10 S PHX 45 WSW PRC 30 ESE IGM 40 W GCN 35 NNW GUP 15 N FMN 15 SSE ASE 20 W FCL 40 WNW AKO 50 W GLD 45 NW EHA 30 E AMA 40 NE SJT 40 NNW HDO 30 S SAT 40 S VCT ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 30 WSW POE 40 E ELD 30 E MEM 30 NNW BNA 35 SSE JKL 10 NNE GSO 25 SE ECG ...CONT... OSC 25 NNE GRR 35 N CGX 25 ENE MLI 10 SE OTM 45 ESE OMA 35 SW SPW 10 NNE FRM 40 WSW EAU 25 WNW RHI 30 NNW MQT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN ROCKIES... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AN ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER N-CNTRL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN ORE. STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING /I.E. 60-90M/12HR HEIGHT FALLS/ WILL PRECEDE TROUGH AXIS EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/ COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL: 1) MAXIMIZE THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AND 2) CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL ID EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PUSHES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT /I.E. 45-55KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...WI/IA... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...RELATIVELY WEAK CAP OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED OWING TO THE WEAK WIND SHEAR...HOWEVER THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 15:58:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 10:58:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409011559.i81FxOL17768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011556 SWODY1 SPC AC 011552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 15 NNE POE 20 NNE CBM 50 SE BNA 30 WSW BLF 15 ENE DAN 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 35 WNW PIA 30 SSE OMA 30 N OFK 15 NNE FSD 15 N RST 35 E MQT ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 40 WSW P24 20 SW MLS 15 NE COD 50 E PIH 20 NW BAM 45 SSE 4LW 70 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST ...CONT... 50 SW TUS 60 ENE PHX 20 S INW 60 SSW GUP 50 W ALS 35 SSW 4FC 35 WSW SNY 25 SSE IML 40 ESE GLD 65 NW ABI 35 ESE JCT 40 SSE SAT 30 SW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ID/MT... RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WA WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT 500MB FLOW OVERSPREADING PARTS OF ID/MT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. ...IA... MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS IA TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS AREA IS LACK OF FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DUE TO WEAK CAP AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM WOULD HAVE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 19:36:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 14:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409011937.i81JbSL16880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011933 SWODY1 SPC AC 011929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 40 ENE LWT 25 NNW 27U 85 SSE S80 75 N BOI 40 SW S80 25 N S80 25 SSW FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 10 N BRL 25 NNE LWD 10 NNE SUX 20 NNW OTG 25 SSW MSP 35 E MQT ...CONT... 50 N MOT 30 N GDV 50 ESE BIL 15 ESE COD 30 SSE BPI 30 ESE OGD 35 ENE ENV 30 WNW EKO 70 NW WMC 65 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX 20 S INW 25 WSW GNT 50 W ALS 45 WSW COS 10 NNW LIC 40 SW GLD 25 NE CDS 65 NW ABI 35 SE JCT 45 NW NIR 30 SW PSX ...CONT... 25 SW GLS 30 NNE HOU 40 NW POE 40 SW LUL 30 E LUL 30 SSW CBM 45 N TUP 45 SSE PAH 15 NW BWG 20 WNW TRI 30 SSW BLF 40 SE LYH 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF MT... ...NRN ROCKIES TO NCNTRL MT... STRONG TROUGH MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN CASCADE MOUNTAINS OF WA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID AND WRN MT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND AREAS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE STILL RECEIVING STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OBJECTIVE MLCAPE GUIDANCE SUGGEST VALUES AOB 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR TSTMS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING FROM ID EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2145 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...SRN MN/IA... CAPPED BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK AND STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN MN INTO IA. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE CAP IS WEAKER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. OVER IA...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKER FORCING SUGGEST ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING WHICH MAY LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP AND RESULT IN A FEW STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL...OR A STRONG DOWNDRAFT OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 00:56:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 19:56:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409020058.i820wZL10522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020055 SWODY1 SPC AC 020052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 40 ENE LWT 30 NNW BZN 25 NW BTM 15 S MSO 40 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 45 NNE PHX 10 SW INW 20 NE GUP 50 SSW GUC 50 ESE ASE 10 NW LIC 50 SW GLD 45 ENE DHT 35 SSE LBB 10 ENE JCT 45 SE SAT 20 WSW PSX ...CONT... 25 SW GLS 30 NNE HOU 40 NW POE 40 SW LUL 30 E LUL 30 SSW CBM 45 N TUP 45 SSE PAH 15 NW BWG 20 WNW TRI 30 SSW BLF 40 SE LYH 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 15 SE BIS 45 NNW SHR 10 SSE JAC 40 SW MLD 45 E OWY 80 E 4LW 65 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W LSE 45 W CWA 45 N GRB 45 NNW MBL 35 W MKG 30 ESE JVL 45 WNW DBQ 25 W LSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT... ...MT... BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SUPPORTS THIS WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 500MB...ROUGHLY 9C/KM. STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE THREAT...AT LEAST UNTIL THE INSTABILITY IS DEPLETED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES THAT ORIENT THEMSELVES PERPENDICULAR...NW-SE...TO THE MEAN WIND. ..DARROW.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 05:44:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 00:44:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409020545.i825jCL31333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020543 SWODY1 SPC AC 020539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 45 ENE COT 55 S CLL TYR 40 E ELD 15 SE JBR 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 45 SSE PKB 20 W BLF 30 WSW HKY 20 S SPA 25 SE CAE 45 N CRE 10 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 10 NNW AXN 35 SSW MHE 30 S MHN 20 NNE LIC 20 SSW LHX 25 SW CAO 30 W TCC 40 SW 4CR 20 E SVC 45 NW SVC 80 E SOW 10 E GNT 40 NE 4SL 40 ESE GUC 35 WNW EGE 45 WSW CAG 35 SW VEL 10 WSW PUC 20 ESE MLF 60 NNW P38 10 NNE U31 15 N BAM 15 WNW MLD 40 NW PIH 75 NNE BOI 50 S S80 45 ESE S80 15 W BTM 10 ENE HLN 35 SSE HVR 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 25 E ESC 20 NNE MTW 30 NW OSH 10 E AUW 15 N RHI 10 W CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 NNW MRF 20 SE FST 35 ENE P07 45 NW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE THURSDAY AS STRONGER FLOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC PRESSURES TO RISE ACROSS MT FORCING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING PEAK HEATING. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS WED AFTERNOON WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100'S. IT APPEARS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH 600MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY INITIATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE OPTIMAL ZONE OF CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF GUSTY WINDS THAN HAIL. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND POST FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ALONG WIND SHIFT TO MORE ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...MOSTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. AT ANY RATE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 12:47:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 07:47:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409021248.i82Cm6L22767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021245 SWODY1 SPC AC 021242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 25 E ESC 20 NNE MTW 30 NW OSH 10 E AUW 15 N RHI 10 W CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 NNW MRF 20 SE FST 35 ENE P07 45 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 10 NNW AXN 35 SSW MHE 30 S MHN 20 NNE LIC 20 SSW LHX 25 SW CAO 30 W TCC 40 SW 4CR 20 E SVC 45 NW SVC 80 E SOW 10 E GNT 40 NE 4SL 40 ESE GUC 35 WNW EGE 45 WSW CAG 35 SW VEL 25 SSW PUC 30 NW BCE 60 NNW P38 10 NNE U31 15 N BAM 15 WNW MLD 40 NW PIH 75 NNE BOI 50 S S80 45 ESE S80 15 W BTM 10 ENE HLN 35 SSE HVR 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 45 ENE COT 55 SSW CLL TYR 40 E ELD 15 SE JBR 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 45 SSE PKB 15 NNW BLF 30 E HKY 30 SW CLT 30 SSW FLO 35 NNE CRE 45 SW HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE MAKING ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND AND BOUNDARY TRAILING SWWD INTO WY ATTM WILL ALSO MAKE MINIMAL EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LAGS UPSTREAM. FURTHER WEST...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD. ...NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH / FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW / BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND DRY / INVERTED V-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER WEST...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND MT -- AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREAD SLOWLY EWD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY / ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL / WIND. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 16:27:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 11:27:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409021628.i82GSgL17405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021626 SWODY1 SPC AC 021622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELO 25 WNW LBF 55 S LVS 10 W ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 60 E SOW 35 SSW MTJ 25 SSW U28 35 ENE MLF 75 ENE TPH 45 E U31 15 SSE EKO 40 SSW PIH 30 ENE SUN 55 SSE RDM 10 NNW ONP ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 NNE 3DU 30 SE GTF 55 NE LWT 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ANJ 20 NNE TVC 25 W MBL MSN 25 SW VOK 35 SSE IWD 25 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 30 NW AUS 15 W FTW 25 WSW OKC 15 SW BVO 25 W FYV 15 SE HOT 50 N GLH 30 WSW DYR 15 NE CGI 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 20 NE HKY 30 ENE CAE 15 ENE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WESTERN STATES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS... MODELS INDICATE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WITH PRIMARY JET STREAK STILL DIGGING UPSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS... POSITIVE-TILT ORIENTATION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THERMAL GRADIENT IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOLING LOW/MID- LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN MOST VIGOROUS CELLS...BUT CAPE IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF FRONT...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS IN ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STRONG NOSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SPREADS EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OR EVEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSES INTO MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ...SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF INTO LOWER OH VLY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING. IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE CONTRIBUTES TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SOUTH/EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND AHEAD OF HURRICANE FRANCES...MAY PROVE INHIBITIVE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 19:59:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 14:59:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409022000.i82K0vL11232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021958 SWODY1 SPC AC 021954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE ELO 20 E AXN 50 E ANW 15 WSW LAA 50 SSE LVS 10 W ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 60 E SOW FMN 40 SW MTJ 25 SSW U28 35 ENE MLF 75 ENE TPH 45 E U31 15 SSE EKO 40 SSW PIH 30 ENE SUN 55 SSE RDM 10 NNW ONP ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 NNE 3DU 30 SE GTF 55 NE LWT 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ANJ 30 S PLN 20 WSW MBL 30 SSW MTW 20 WSW OSH 25 SE CWA 20 ESE RHI 25 W MQT 80 NNE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 30 NW AUS 15 W FTW 25 WSW OKC 15 SW BVO 25 W FYV 15 SE HOT 50 N GLH 30 WSW DYR 15 NE CGI 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 20 NE HKY 30 ENE CAE 15 ENE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN US. A MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM SE ID EXTENDING NEWD INTO SW ND. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NRN ND EXTENDING SWWD TO CNTRL WY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY WEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE CAP IS THE WEAKEST. SBCAPE VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V-PROFILES IN PLACE...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH POST-FRONTAL STORMS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...UP MI... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE UP OF MI. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...REF MCD 2256. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 01:02:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 20:02:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409030103.i8313VL15557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030101 SWODY1 SPC AC 030057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 ENE PHX 50 S GUP 35 NNW ABQ 45 ENE LVS 30 WNW TCC 25 N ROW 15 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 30 WSW AUS 40 ENE LIT 15 ESE POF 35 WNW MDH 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 20 S CAK 40 ENE CRW 70 NNW AHN 20 S AND 30 ENE CAE 15 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 35 NNE BKX 65 W YKN 30 S LBF 55 ESE LIC 20 WNW PUB 40 SSW MTJ 15 NW CDC 10 SW TPH 45 NE SCK 55 SE RBL 15 W SVE 35 SW BAM 40 SE OWY 30 W PIH 20 S LVM 85 WNW MLS 60 NNE GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS... LARGE...COLD NWRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...FROM ERN ND SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB/SERN WY TO CENTRAL UT/NV... WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD TO ERN MT/ND AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO ERN MT/ND. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..PETERS.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 12:55:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 07:55:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409031256.i83CuKG18356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031252 SWODY1 SPC AC 031249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CMX 40 N BRD BKX BBW 25 WNW MCK 50 E LIC 20 WSW LHX 40 SSE RTN 15 E ABQ 45 S GNT 65 NNW SVC 25 SW SVC 65 SSW DMN ...CONT... 20 WNW YUM 50 NE LAS 50 ENE DRA DRA 70 ESE BIH 30 NE BIH 60 NW TPH 55 SSE EKO 15 NNE MLD 35 NW JAC 25 NE WRL 25 ENE SHR SDY 50 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT TPL 20 WSW TXK 25 NE HOT POF SLO MMO 35 S MKE 50 SW HTL 25 NNE MBS ...CONT... 30 NW EPM MPV UCA 40 NNE PSB 30 NNW LBE CRW TRI AHN 55 ESE MCN 25 N SAV 30 SSE FLO 35 WNW OAJ 45 NNW RWI 15 N NHK 25 NNW SBY 30 NE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA...ANALYZED AT 500 MB FROM NRN PORTION SASK/ALTA BORDER SSWWD ACROSS SRN CA. EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN ALTA AND OVER NV. LATTER CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG ESEWD TOWARD WRN UT WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN SIERRAS AND LAS AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO INCREASE OVER NRN PLAINS AS HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ALTA LOW. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT E OF ROCKIES. FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ONT/MB BORDER SWWD ACROSS ERN ND...CENTRAL SD AND SERN WY...THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN NV. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN AZ...W-CENTRAL CO AND NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH PERIOD...AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER NE. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY RESULT FROM COMBINATION OF NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNALLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS 50S TO NEAR 60 F AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF FRONT FROM ERN ND TO WRN NEB. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR. THIS MAY AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIABATIC HEATING AND SHOULD DIMINISH/DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER DARK. ...ERN FL... COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL RISK FOR TORNADOES ATTM...THOUGH AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD BEGIN NEAR E-CENTRAL FL COAST AND SPREAD NWWD DURING LATTER HALF OF FCST PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE FRANCES IS NOT FCST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG E COAST OF FL UNTIL DAY-2...EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF ERN/SRN FL THROUGHOUT DAY-1. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY WITH APCH OF THIS HURRICANE...THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR OF FLOW/SHEAR NNW-ESE OF CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. ALSO...NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES THAT COULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WHETHER ORIGINATING SYNOPTICALLY OR FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/COOLING PROCESSES. IN A BROAD SENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE OFFSHORE AND NEAR COAST AFTER DARK WITH 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE BY 04/06Z-12Z TIME FRAME...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS IN OUTER BANDS. CAPE...HOWEVER...WILL BE QUITE SMALL GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING TO ENHANCE BUOYANCY. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY PREDICTIONS OF FRANCES. ...AZ... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION BEING GENERALLY SHALLOWER AND HIGHER BASED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME...THOUGH HORIZONTAL JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS IN DOUBT ATTM. MAIN PROBLEM ATTM IS HOW ROBUSTLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NWD INTO AREA FROM SONORA AND CO RIVER DELTA REGION...WHERE LATEST SFC OBS SHOW 70S F DEW POINTS FROM YUM-HERMOSILLO. MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER S-CENTRAL AZ AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR. FARTHER N INVOF FLG...40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEARS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 16:38:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 11:38:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409031639.i83GdZG18621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031637 SWODY1 SPC AC 031633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE PHX 55 NNW GBN 30 SE IGM 20 WNW GCN 15 NW PGA 15 W 4BL CEZ 30 SSW FMN 40 S GUP 25 NW SAD 35 SSE PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW YUM 20 N BLH 30 N EED 40 ENE LAS 30 NNW LAS 60 NE DAG 10 NE NID 25 SSE BIH 60 NW TPH 50 SSW EKO 55 SSE TWF 25 WSW PIH 35 NW JAC 40 SW COD 25 WNW WRL 25 NE WRL 25 ENE SHR 15 ESE GDV 50 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DRT 10 W TPL 35 SE MLC 35 SW HRO 25 SSW TBN 25 E ALN DEC 40 W CGX 25 SSE MKE 50 SW HTL 25 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNW ANJ 25 SW ELO 45 N BRD BKX BBW 25 WNW MCK 50 E LIC 20 WSW LHX 50 WSW CAO 35 SE LVS 30 E ONM 40 SSE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ERI 10 SSE PIT 10 SE CRW 30 SSE TRI 15 NW AHN 55 ESE MCN 25 N SAV 30 SSE FLO 35 WNW OAJ 45 NNW RWI 45 N RIC 25 NNW SBY 30 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW EPM 30 NE AUG 15 SSW MWN 20 SSW MPV 25 SE SLK 10 E MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ AND SRN UT/SW CO/NW NM... ...SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN NV EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY E AROUND BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND SHOULD REACH WRN UT BY 12Z SATURDAY. SMALLER SCALE VORT SHOWN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SWD ACROSS OVER CNTRL CA ATTM SUGGESTS THAT NV SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN/BECOME MORE CLOSED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. FARTHER N...SEPARATE CLOSED SYSTEM IN SE AB SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA IN SE QUADRANT OF SYSTEM MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WY/ERN MT/ND INTO SASKATCHEWAN/ MANITOBA. OVER THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MODULATED BY PATH/INTENSITY/SPEED OF HRCN FRANCES. SEE TPC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. ...S CNTRL AZ INTO SRN/ERN UT AND WRN CO... THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN DESERTS AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF E/SE MOVING NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MORNING RAOBS SHOW RATHER SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PWS AOA 1 INCH/ SPREADING NNE/NE FROM THE LWR CO VLY REGION INTO CNTRL AZ. STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS AZ TODAY...N/NNEWD INTO SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO AND NW NM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN HOWARD REMAIN FARTHER S AND E. AREA VWP DATA SHOW 700 MB SWLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AZ ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS. THESE SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS NV IMPULSE CONTINUES E/SEWD. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE MTNS...AND SOME DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NV DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN AZ. SUFFICIENT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO STRONG CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FARTHER NE...A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO SRN AND ERN UT/WRN CO AND NW NM....WHERE STRONGER BUT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD COUPLED WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR BOWING ELEMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO DAKS... SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED FROM NE CO/SE WY NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKS AND NW MN LATER TODAY...WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL PERSIST ALONG AND TO THE W OF NE/SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AB UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPES TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. WITH DEEP WIND PROFILES STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BANDS...WITH A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER DARK. ...ERN FL... A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE FL E CST...AS OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN FRANCES GLANCE REGION. BUT WEAK CAPE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORM SUGGEST THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MINIMAL. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 20:04:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 15:04:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409032005.i83K5BG07602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032001 SWODY1 SPC AC 031957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PHX 40 S PRC 30 NW PRC 20 NNW GCN 20 W PGA 25 WNW U17 30 ENE CNY 15 NNE GJT 35 N MTJ DRO 45 E SOW 50 SSW SOW 45 E PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 10 SSW IGM 35 NNW IGM 20 ESE LAS 65 NE DAG 20 ENE NID 55 NNW NID 15 WNW BIH 35 SW U31 35 SE EKO 20 E JAC 35 W MLS 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT BWD 30 E FYV 10 NNE ALN 40 S CGX 25 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 30 SW ROC 25 SE HLG 35 WSW AVL 20 WSW AHN 40 SE AHN 25 W CAE 20 SE GSO 30 WSW NHK 15 SSE EWR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM 30 NW BGR 25 NNE PBG 40 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 10 WSW FOD 15 NNW CNK 40 NW LBL 40 N TCC 20 W 4CR 25 E DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...SE UT AND WRN CO... ...AZ/FOUR CORNERS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US. A BAND OF STRONG-LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PRESENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN CO...UT AND NWRN AZ AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO SRN UT AND WRN AZ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40 DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS FAR NRN AZ...SE UT AND WRN CO. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR CNTRL AZ. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 8.0 C/KM OVER MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS A LARGE-CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION REACHING ERN AZ LATE TONIGHT. ...DAKOTAS/HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM NE ND EXTENDING SWWD INTO SCNTRL WY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT SFC HEATING SHOULD CAUSE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP INITIATE STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS FAR NW NEB...CNTRL SD AND ERN ND. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN US TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ERN FL... HURRICANE FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE FL COAST TONIGHT. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES. IF A TORNADO THREAT MATERIALIZES...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ROTATING CELLS THAT COME ONSHORE EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 00:53:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 19:53:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409040054.i840s5G10577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040052 SWODY1 SPC AC 040048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 25 SW HIB 25 NE AXN 65 W YKN 30 WSW MCK 40 N TCC 20 W 4CR 35 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 75 NW GBN 20 NNW IGM 20 ESE LAS 65 NE DAG 20 ENE NID 55 NNW NID 15 WNW BIH 35 SW U31 35 SE EKO 35 SSE JAC 55 NNE SHR 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT 20 NW AUS 35 NNW ELD 35 SSE CGI 25 S DNV 25 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 20 S LBE 15 NW BLF 15 N ATL 30 E CEW 20 ENE AQQ 20 NNE CTY 20 W SAV 35 N CHS 35 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EPM 30 NNW BML. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WITH TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION REFLECT A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR MID LEVEL CONVECTION TO THE W-N OF THE WIND SHIFT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...AND SEEMS RATHER REMOTE...WHETHER BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BE FORCED TO THEIR LFC ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. IF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ...AZ... STRENGTHENING UPPER SPEED MAX ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY DRY PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED STRONG/HIGH BASED MULTI-CELLS...OR PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS ECNTRL AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 05:41:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 00:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409040543.i845h6G09217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040541 SWODY1 SPC AC 040536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PBI 40 S AGR 40 NW AGR 30 SE GNV 20 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 25 S UMN 10 NNE ALN 25 NNE BMI RFD 20 N DBQ 30 SSW ALO 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 10 ENE CNM 60 WNW MRF ...CONT... YUM 60 NW GBN 50 SW GCN 25 ENE SGU 45 WNW MLF 15 SE ENV 25 NW MLD 20 WSW JAC 35 SSE COD 50 SW GCC 60 NW CDR 20 WSW PHP 35 SSW JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 20 NW ART 35 N GFL 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 20 NE NEL 30 NNW ILG 10 S CRW 55 NW CHA 10 E MEI 25 NNE BVE ...CONT... 15 ENE AQQ 35 NNE ABY 45 NNW AGS 20 NNE RDU 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL ROTATE INLAND AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE LANDFALL AND THE WWD MOTION...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD BE FOR MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DOWNSTREAM SFC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-36HRS EXTENDING FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS NEB INTO NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ZONE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THUS SLOWING SFC HEATING FOR POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING FROM WRN KS INTO SWRN MN FAVORS AN INCREASING BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 12:59:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 07:59:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041301.i84D0xG14538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041256 SWODY1 SPC AC 041252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 45 W ABE 20 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 NNW ART 35 N GFL PSM ...CONT... 30 NE IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS CNM 60 WNW MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 55 ESE YUM 40 NW GBN 50 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 35 ESE ENV MLD JAC WRL 50 SW GCC 70 NW CDR 30 NW PHP 40 ESE BIS 75 N GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CYCLONE ALOFT - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UT -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD AND MOVE ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS WRN CO -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH ABOUT 05/06Z...FOLLOWED BY SOME EWD DRIFT THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE...BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE E-CENTRAL FL COASTLINE LATE IN PERIOD. REF LATEST NHC STATEMENTS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. ...FL PENINSULA... HURRICANE-SPAWNED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ACROSS AREA THROUGH PERIOD...AS MORE OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IMPINGES UPON AREA. SECTOR CONTAINING MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- GENERALLY NNW-ESE OF CENTER -- SHOULD SPREAD WNWWD OVER AREA. EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS NEAREST TO VORTEX CENTER. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUPERCELL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE -- OVER CENTRAL FL...BECAUSE OF 1. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED SBCAPE AWAY FROM MOST DENSE CLOUD/PRECIP CANOPY... 2. MORE DISTINCT/DISCRETE CHARACTER OF CELLS EXPECTED WITHIN OUTER BANDS... 3. SOMEWHAT LESS VERTICAL UNIFORMITY OF WINDS AND LARGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH DISTANCE FROM CENTER OF HURRICANE...YIELDING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS...AND 4. GRADIENT OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN DRIER TBW/JAX RAOBS AND NEARLY SATURATED MFL SOUNDING...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FL MOST OF PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AREA... FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SERVE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS THROUGH PERIOD. INITIALLY ELEVATED TSTMS BEHIND FRONT THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DIABATIC HEATING AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED SFC MOISTURE IN WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY...AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR FRONT. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED LBF RAOB AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS. ...NRN AZ...4-CORNERS REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING IN AREA OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...E THROUGH S OF STRONG UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING RAISES MLCAPES TO 300-800 J/KG RANGE. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH PERIOD...ADVECTED NEWD FROM WEAKENING REMAINS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE HOWARD. MORNING FLG RAOB INDICATES FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BENEATH 50 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 16:33:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 11:33:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041635.i84GZAG22234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PHX 40 SSE PRC 30 NE INW 15 NW FMN 40 ENE DRO 25 S ALS 35 NNE SAF 15 SE ABQ 40 N SAD 15 NE PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ART 35 N GFL PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 40 WNW FST 90 S MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 N SYR 45 ENE UCA 30 SE GFL EWR 30 WNW ABE 10 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 20 N GBN 55 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 25 NNE ENV 35 NNE BYI 30 NE IDA 20 WSW WRL 50 SW GCC 20 E 81V 25 WSW Y22 40 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ/NW NM AND SW CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW NOW OVER W CNTRL UT EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E INTO CNTRL/ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST CONTINUES E/SE INTO SRN BC. FARTHER E...BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG SSW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD IN MANITOBA...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM UT/CO TROUGH. OVER THE SOUTHEAST... PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HRCN FRANCES. THE TPC FCSTS FRANCES TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WNW MOTION...WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO... BELT OF STRONG /50+ KT/ MID LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM NRN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS AND CONTINUES EWD. AREA SOUNDINGS/SURFACE DATA AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO...WHERE AVERAGE PWS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH. EWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS TO OVERSPREAD REGION...WITH THE 500 MB MINUS 10 C ISOTHERM CURVING S INTO THE RIM COUNTRY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50+ KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE ACROSS REGION TO AOA 500 J/KG. BUT HEATING WILL BE DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ...ESPECIALLY IN SW CO AND NW NM. IN ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM T.S. HOWARD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN/AZ. TAKEN IN SUMMARY...EXPECT A FEW BANDS OF SUSTAINED/OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ...CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW MN INTO NE CO EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 1000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AMPLE /30-40 KT/ SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM SW NEB NEWD INTO CNTRL SD. A FEW STORM/STORM CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY AFFECT THIS AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. FARTHER N...ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CELLS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM WRN NEB/SD INTO ND/NW MN. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR HRCN-RELATED TORNADOES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS PERIOD AS FRANCES CONTINUES SLOWLY WNWWD. THE NNW TO ESE SECTOR OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WILL NOT REACH THE COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME... CONVECTION ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION THROUGH THE DAY. HEATING OF INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL MAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATE CAPE TO BOLSTER THIS THREAT. BUT SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF COMPARATIVELY DRY OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY INNER CIRCULATION OF VORTEX AS IT MOVES ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 17:03:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 12:03:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041704.i84H4RG00391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041702 SWODY1 SPC AC 041658 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PHX 40 SSE PRC 30 NE INW 15 NW FMN 40 ENE DRO 25 S ALS 35 NNE SAF 15 SE ABQ 40 N SAD 15 NE PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 20 N GBN 55 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 25 NNE ENV 35 NNE BYI 30 NE IDA 20 WSW WRL 50 SW GCC 20 E 81V 25 WSW Y22 40 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 30 NE IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 40 WNW FST 90 S MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 N SYR 45 ENE UCA 30 SE GFL EWR 30 WNW ABE 10 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ/NW NM AND SW CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW NOW OVER W CNTRL UT EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E INTO CNTRL/ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST CONTINUES E/SE INTO SRN BC. FARTHER E...BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG SSW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD IN MANITOBA...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM UT/CO TROUGH. OVER THE SOUTHEAST... PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HRCN FRANCES. THE TPC FCSTS FRANCES TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WNW MOTION...WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO... BELT OF STRONG /50+ KT/ MID LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM NRN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS AND CONTINUES EWD. AREA SOUNDINGS/SURFACE DATA AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO...WHERE AVERAGE PWS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH. EWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS TO OVERSPREAD REGION...WITH THE 500 MB MINUS 10 C ISOTHERM CURVING S INTO THE RIM COUNTRY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50+ KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE ACROSS REGION TO AOA 500 J/KG. BUT HEATING WILL BE DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ...ESPECIALLY IN SW CO AND NW NM. IN ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM T.S. HOWARD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN AZ. TAKEN IN SUMMARY...EXPECT A FEW BANDS OF SUSTAINED/OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ...CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW MN INTO NE CO EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 1000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AMPLE /30-40 KT/ SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM SW NEB NEWD INTO CNTRL SD. A FEW STORM/STORM CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY AFFECT THIS AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. FARTHER N...ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CELLS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM WRN NEB/SD INTO ND/NW MN. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR HRCN-RELATED TORNADOES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS PERIOD AS FRANCES CONTINUES SLOWLY WNWWD. THE NNW TO ESE SECTOR OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WILL NOT REACH THE COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME... CONVECTION ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION THROUGH THE DAY. HEATING OF INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL MAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATE CAPE TO BOLSTER THIS THREAT. BUT SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF COMPARATIVELY DRY OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY INNER CIRCULATION OF VORTEX AS IT MOVES ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 19:55:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 14:55:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041956.i84JuJG30184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041953 SWODY1 SPC AC 041949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MIA 55 E FMY 35 N FMY 35 ENE PIE 30 SE GNV 45 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE SAD 55 WNW SAD 60 ENE PHX 30 SW INW 35 NNE INW 15 WSW DRO 50 E DRO 50 S ALS 15 ENE SAF 15 SE ABQ 45 NNE SAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CMX 25 NW EAU 45 SW FOD 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 40 ESE CVS 50 WSW INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 E ADM 10 SSW UMN 35 E UIN 30 NE MKE 40 N TVC 40 SSE ANJ 80 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 35 NNE UCA 40 W ALB 20 NNE MSV 20 N ABE 30 NNW BWI 40 W SHD 20 WSW BLF 30 NNE TYS 10 S HSV 25 SW TCL 60 SE MEI 35 N PNS 35 SW DHN 40 WSW ABY 55 SW AGS 35 WSW FLO 15 ESE GSB 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 35 WSW GBN 55 WSW PRC 25 WSW GCN 20 W BCE 55 E ELY 15 SW ENV 35 SE BYI 45 SE IDA 35 WNW LND 50 E RIW 15 SSE GCC 45 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AZ AND NW NM... ...CNTRL AND ERN FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH FL. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING NWWD REACHING THE IMMEDIATE FL COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE VERY HEAVY RAINBANDS NWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN FL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB HAS INCREASED TODAY AND WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. AS A RESULT...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE ROTATING STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAINBANDS AND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FL LATE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. ...ERN AZ/NW NM... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OF 60 KT...LOCATED ACROSS NE AZ AND SW CO. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN AZ AND NWRN NM. AT ABQ...THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT 19Z SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 KT. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 750 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD REACHING SCNTRL CO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...DAKOTAS... A LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM FAR NW MN TO CNTRL SD. BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 500 J/KG. AND THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 01:05:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 20:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409050106.i8516aG31710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050104 SWODY1 SPC AC 050100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 20 ESE VLD 10 SSE SSI ...CONT... 15 ENE MIA 45 W MIA 40 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 50 SE PHX 30 WSW INW 25 SW PGA 20 W BCE 40 WSW U24 50 NNW DPG MLD 30 W JAC 50 S COD 35 SSW GCC 45 NW PHP 40 SE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 85 NW CMX 30 NW EAU 45 WSW FOD 25 SSW CNK 20 S GCK 35 W PVW 20 ESE INK 90 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 15 W AUS 55 E ACT 35 SSE PRX 40 SSW HOT 35 SSE PBF 40 ESE MLU 15 ESE HEZ 30 S GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN ABY 40 SSE AGS FLO 10 NNW OAJ 30 ESE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL PENINSULA... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED 40 NE PBI AT 0030Z...AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A SLOW WWD MOVEMENT. TPC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN TRACK W/WNWWD TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 12Z SUNDAY. TROPICAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE EYEWALL... ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN STRONG /0-1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT/ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE TORNADO THREAT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO NWRN MN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN SWWD ACROSS NRN NEB TO ERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM NERN CO NEWD TO ERN SD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DECREASE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NEB/SD OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ENEWD SUPPORTING A COUPLED MID-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40 KT NOSING INTO NEB/SD. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO SD...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUPPORTING ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 09/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 01:04:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 20:04:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409060106.i86164G00806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060102 SWODY1 SPC AC 060058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 20 NNW AGR 15 NW PIE ...CONT... 10 SW PFN 30 NE DHN 40 NNE ABY 55 N AYS 20 ESE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CNU 25 E MHK 20 ESE BIE 20 WSW OMA 30 ESE YKN 25 ESE MHE 20 ENE HON 50 NNE ATY 15 SSW BRD 55 SSE DLH 30 SE EAU 35 NNW DBQ 40 NE IRK 55 SSW IRK 15 ESE OJC 40 N CNU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 20 SW MAF 40 E PVW 60 SW GAG 30 SE DDC 55 N RSL 10 WNW GRI 65 NNE BUB 45 WSW 9V9 40 N PIR 45 NE MBG 25 W RRT ...CONT... 40 SE ANJ 15 NW MKG 20 NW CMI 15 N JBR 30 N ESF 40 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PNS 30 NNE TOI 40 NW MCN 20 SW CAE FAY 20 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL AND SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WHILE T.S. FRANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTEND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER SERN SD SWD THRU ERN NE AND CENTRAL KS...THROUGH A LOW OVER NWRN OK...THEN SWWD ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM. ...FLORIDA AND SRN GA... SEE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM NHC/TPC ON T.S. FRANCES. FORECASTS INDICATE THAT CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES WILL TURN TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE PLACING FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND NWRN MO INTO S CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 6.0C/KM. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-55 KT EXTENDS FROM ERN KS NWD INTO E CENTRAL MN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO E CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI. COMBINE THIS WITH MID LEVEL SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 60-65 KT AND A SWLY 95-105 UPPER LEVEL JET PLACES STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO VERY DIVERGENT FROM MO INTO MN ENHANCING UVVS SUPPORTING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WRN AREAS OF WI OVERNIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/NERN MN BY 06/12Z. THUS...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NERN MN SWD THROUGH ERN IA INTO SWRN MO AND S CENTRAL OK BY 12Z. STRONG WINDS MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PARALLEL LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE MN/CANADA BORDER. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 05:13:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 00:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409060515.i865FJG19081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060513 SWODY1 SPC AC 060509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 25 SE GNV 30 S CTY ...CONT... PFN 35 NE CEW 10 ESE AUO 50 ENE MCN 35 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 30 NE FST 35 W ABI 55 NW MLC 50 S SZL 30 SW BRL 40 E ALO 30 ENE RST 65 NNW EAU 55 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 ENE CLE 25 WNW LUK 20 NW HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL 25 NNE LUL 10 NW TCL 10 WNW ANB 40 WNW AHN 20 SSW CLT 20 N RDU 35 NE RIC 30 SSE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND STRONG ZONAL TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. MEANWHILE...T.S. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE...THEN TURN NWD INTO SERN AL BY 04/12Z. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC/TPC FOR LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. ...PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL INTO SRN GA... AS THE CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURNS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...FAVORABLE FORWARD QUADRANT FOR BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN FL INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND EXTREME SRN SC. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN UPPER MI SWD THRU CENTRAL WI...NERN MO AND S CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO EXTREME W TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES EWD AND NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY 06/12Z. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SERN ONTARIO AS WELL AS 90-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THUS...BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAVE LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ONLY SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS/DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 12:26:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 07:26:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409061227.i86CRYG19379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061225 SWODY1 SPC AC 061221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AQQ 40 E TOI 10 NE CSG 55 WSW AGS 20 ESE CHS ...CONT... 40 SE DAB 10 ESE AGR 20 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF FST 10 E ABI MKO JEF BRL LNR 50 SW IWD 95 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL MEI TCL ANB 40 WNW AHN CLT LYH 25 SSW NHK 30 SSE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL...GA...SERN AL...EXTREME SRN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS FCST AS UPPER LOW NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN ONT MERGES WITH LOW OVER MANITOBA...THEN PIVOTS EWD-NEWD OVER FAR NWRN ONT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN WI/ERN IA SWWD ACROSS MO AND SWRN OK -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES...SEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...AND SWD OVER MUCH OF TX...AS PARENT CYCLONE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT. MEANWHILE TS FRANCES DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS SERN CONUS. ...SERN CONUS... TS FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TOWARD LANDFALL CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...REF LATEST NHC GUIDANCE UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXTENDING SE THROUGH N OF CENTER -- PRIMARILY IN MIDDLE-OUTER BANDS WHERE DIABATIC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL BOOST IN SBCAPE WILL BE GREATEST. 150-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF LARGEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES...ALONG WITH LOW LCL AND MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG. REF WWS 803/804 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING TORNADO THREAT WITH TS FRANCES. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT TODAY...FROM PORTIONS ERN WI/LM/IL/UPPER MI SWD THROUGH INDIANA. BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL -- AS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT COUNTERACT EFFECTS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS LIFTING WELL N AND NW OF AREA BUT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING GUSTS...MAINLY BEFORE 00Z. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 16:30:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 11:30:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409061631.i86GVKG28153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061629 SWODY1 SPC AC 061625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 25 E DHN 25 E CSG 50 WSW AGS 15 E CRE ...CONT... 40 SE DAB 25 NNE AGR 20 SE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF FST 10 E ABI MKO JEF BRL LNR 50 SW IWD 95 NW CMX ...CONT... 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL MEI 25 SE CBM 35 N BHM 20 ESE CHA 35 WSW HSS LYH 15 SE BWI 15 SSE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FL NWD ACROSS S GA TO COASTAL SC THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...FL/GA/SC AREA... TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IS MOVING NNWWD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL S OF TLH BY EARLY AFTERNOON /SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 50-60 KT SELY FLOW 1-2 KM AGL OVER THE NRN HALF OF FL/S GA/SRN SC...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 ACROSS AREAS N THROUGH E OF THE CENTER OF FRANCES. MODEST BUOYANCY /MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ AND MOIST PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE GA AND SRN SC COASTS WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTER ERN/SERN CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT GREATER BUOYANCY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NW IL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI AS OF MID MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ARE SPREADING NWD IN A NARROW PLUME E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN IL TO WRN LOWER MI...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST PROFILES AND FOCUSED ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WARRANTS ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 19:59:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 14:59:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409062000.i86K0aG30018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061956 SWODY1 SPC AC 061952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 25 E DHN 40 WNW MCN 45 E AHN 15 E CRE ...CONT... 15 SE MLB 25 WSW VRB 15 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 45 WNW P07 65 W JCT 45 NW SAT 50 NNE CLL 30 SSE TXK 55 NE LIT 20 NE POF 10 W MTO 15 SSE CGX 35 SW MBL 40 ESE MQT 120 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL MEI 20 WNW TCL 25 S HSV 20 NNE CHA 30 NW HSS 35 E SSU 15 SSE BWI 15 SSE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN GA...SERN SC... AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL... ...SERN U.S.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES HAS MOVED INLAND JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE. THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING NWWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE NLY MOTION TODAY. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PERSISTS E AND NE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA CONTAINING THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THEREFORE...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS THEN NWWD TO ALONG AND INLAND OF THE GA AND SC COASTS. FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER TONIGHT. OVERALL THREAT MAY UNDERGO SOME DECREASE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND SC. ...UPPER AND LOWER MI... LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MUCH OF WHICH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING...HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI SWD ACROSS WRN LOWER MI AND INTO NW IND ALONG AND E OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED /SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POOR LAPSE RATES. STORMS NOW DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI LIFTS NEWD INTO SRN CANADA THIS EVENING...THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN FORCING/CONVERGENCE. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY/POOR LAPSE RATES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING TO LIFT N OF THIS AREA WITH TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 12:31:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 07:31:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409071232.i87CWxG28875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071230 SWODY1 SPC AC 071225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 35 NNE DHN 20 SSW RMG 40 ESE CHA 20 WSW AVL 20 ENE FAY 45 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HUL 15 N LCI 25 NW ALB 25 NNE CXY 25 SSE HGR 15 N NHK 25 ESE DOV 20 S NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ATY 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW ANW 25 NNW IML 20 SSE AKO 20 SSE FCL 30 NNW CYS 10 NNW GCC 65 W MLS 20 NW GDV 60 SSW FAR 50 ENE ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N YUM 35 SSE PHX 45 SW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 25 E CLL 30 SSW ELD 30 N HEZ 30 ESE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 25 W TOI 25 NNE CBM 30 NNE DYR 30 ENE MVN 30 WSW MIE 25 S DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF T.D. FRANCES CIRCULATION NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER N OF DHN. NHC GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SLOW NWD TRACK WITH CIRCULATION CENTER EXPECTED OVER NWRN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS INLAND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT REGION AND APPALACHIANS. CO-LOCATION OF THIS INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-350 M2/S2/ IN ERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALONG/SLIGHTLY N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS SRN NC. OTHER REGION OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CIRCULATION CENTER OVER PARTS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL/NRN PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL GA. HERE...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WRN EDGE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE WW 808 AND ANY ASSOCIATED MCD/S. ...NRN PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...INDUCING WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT /ESPECIALLY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ/ AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 15:32:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 10:32:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409071533.i87FXOG30749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071530 SWODY1 SPC AC 071526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N DAB 45 N PIE ...CONT... 20 WSW CTY AYS 20 N AHN 30 NNW AND 20 NNW CLT 30 WSW GSB 35 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 25 NW LGC 50 WSW AVL 15 NNE HSS 35 NW TYS 10 SSE HSV 45 SSW MSL 20 NNE TUP 30 NNE DYR 30 NNW EVV 25 E TOL ...CONT... 15 N HUL 15 N LCI 40 ESE UCA 25 NNE CXY 25 SSE HGR 15 N NHK 15 NNE DOV 15 NW ISP 15 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ATY 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW ANW 25 NNW IML 20 SSE AKO 20 SSE FCL 30 NNW CYS 10 NNW GCC 65 W MLS 20 NW GDV 60 SSW FAR 50 ENE ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 NE YUM 30 SSE PHX 30 ENE TUS 10 WSW DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LRD 55 E CLL 35 SW SHV 35 SSE MLU 40 W BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM N FL NWD TO SRN NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... ASIDE FROM THE SE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCES...A RATHER BENIGN CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS EXTENDS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WA AND UPPER MI. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WRN AND NRN CONUS IS RELATIVELY STABLE/DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE SRN AZ BORDER ON THE FRINGE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME...ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA...AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM W CENTRAL GA INTO N GA BY TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD. A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND OF 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 1-4 KM AGL LAYER WILL PERSIST FROM N FL ACROSS ERN GA AND SC...TO THE E/NE OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CENTER. MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST L0W-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST FROM FL NWD TO SC...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG L0W-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CORRIDOR FROM CAE TO FLO WHERE DISCRETE STORMS INTERACT WITH AN E-W SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 19:37:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 14:37:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409071938.i87JcbG03528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071936 SWODY1 SPC AC 071931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 30 NW AYS 15 NW AND 20 W HKY 40 WSW GSO 20 NW GSB 35 SE EWN ...CONT... DAB 15 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 E YUM 45 ESE GBN TUS 15 S FHU ...CONT... 35 SSE LRD 35 NNW VCT 50 NW BPT 25 N LCH 15 SSW 7R4 ...CONT... 15 WNW PFN 35 NE DHN 10 WNW LGC 10 N RMG 40 ENE CHA 20 NNE HSS 35 SSW BLF 10 NNW BLF 30 SSW CRW 25 NW 5I3 20 NNE LOZ 50 ESE BWG 25 ESE CKV 40 N HOP 45 WSW DAY 20 WSW CLE ...CONT... 15 N HUL 25 ESE MPV 40 ESE UCA 30 NNW CXY 20 E MRB 15 N NHK 15 NE DOV 10 W BDR 15 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ATY 30 NNW YKN 25 NNE MHN 30 W MHN 20 SSE AKO 10 NE FCL 25 NNE LAR 10 NNW GCC 40 S MLS 20 ESE GDV 50 SSE JMS 30 NNW ATY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...NRN FL/SOUTHEAST... OTHER THAN A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AROUND THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.D. FRANCES...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST ALMOST STEADY-STATE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM NRN FL/ERN GA ACROSS SC AND SRN/CNTRL NC INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP DATA FROM ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND DIRECTION VEERING STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 M2/S2. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITHIN CONFLUENT FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EMBEDDED CELLULAR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...SOME OF THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ROTATION AND OCCASIONALLY SPAWN TORNADOES. CONSULT SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND TORNADO WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFO. ..CARBIN.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 00:55:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 19:55:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409080056.i880ukG25954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080054 SWODY1 SPC AC 080050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 N PIE ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 30 NW AYS 55 SSE TYS 20 S HSS 20 ESE GSO 15 NNW GSB 40 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PFN 35 NE DHN 10 WNW LGC 10 N RMG 40 SSW TYS 25 E TYS 40 N TYS 20 N CSV 35 SE BNA 30 W BNA 40 N HOP 30 SSE MIE 20 WSW CLE ...CONT... 15 N HUL 25 ESE MPV 40 WSW ALB 20 NW AVP 25 NNE CXY 15 NNE ILG 25 NNE TTN 20 NW BDR 15 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W AXN 25 SSE FSD 45 N BUB 15 NNW LBF 20 SSE AKO 10 NE FCL 25 NNE LAR 10 NNW GCC 40 S MLS 20 ESE GDV 25 SSW FAR 50 W AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 E YUM 45 ESE GBN 20 E TUS 15 S FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LRD 35 NNW VCT 50 NW BPT 40 WNW LFT 20 S 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL... ...CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL... AT 00Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GA /40 SE ATL/. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NEWD TRACK INTO NRN GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE WILL BE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF FRANCES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AREA 00Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ARE AND WILL REMAIN AT 250-400 M2/S2 FROM CENTRAL NC SWD TO ERN GA...WITH 150-200 M2/S2 LIKELY SWD ACROSS NRN FL. ...NWRN NEB/PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NRN WY...WITH THIS TROUGH LOCATED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN WY ENEWD ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS /GENERALLY IN THE 40S/ ACROSS THIS REGION...A DECREASING TREND FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 40-45 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WAA REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SD. 250-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED ON THE EAST BY WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT A VEERING LLJ TOWARD 12Z WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO ERN SD. ..PETERS.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 05:58:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 00:58:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409080559.i885xLG09424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080556 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SSI 20 NNE AYS 35 SE AGS 35 WNW CAE 20 ENE SPA 10 SSE HKY 40 WNW DAN 20 SSE SHD 35 SSE MRB 30 S CXY PHL 10 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 40 SSW AGS 25 SE AND 15 N CSV 35 WSW LEX 20 SSE DAY 20 ENE CLE ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 15 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SUX 50 ESE GLD 35 SE LAA 10 N PUB 25 NE CYS 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 45 SW MLS 10 SSW OLF 35 NNE ISN 50 E P24 30 S AXN 15 NNE OTG 35 SSW SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 25 SSE RAL 30 WSW PMD 20 WNW EDW 35 N DAG 25 WSW EED 40 NE BLH 50 E BLH 25 WSW GBN 80 WSW TUS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FRANCES AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM FAR NRN GA TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY EARLY...WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS/VEERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA/SWRN AZ AS SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. ...SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MOVES NNEWD...A BAND OF 35-45 SSWLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA TODAY TO ERN VA/DELMARVA AREA BY THIS EVENING. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA TO PA. MEANWHILE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CENTRAL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC/VA AND DELMARVA WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUATION OF NWD MOVING CONFLUENT CONVECTIVE BANDS. ALTHOUGH T.D. FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES /0-3 KM SRH AT 150-250 M2/S2/ WITHIN THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE COMBINED WITH MOIST TROPICAL PROFILES /I.E. LOW LCLS/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-ERN SC/NC/SRN VA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS ALSO SUPPORT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA /SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER NRN FL ON TUESDAY/...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES BEING SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 12:32:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 07:32:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409081233.i88CXsG11027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081231 SWODY1 SPC AC 081226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CHS 30 ESE CAE 20 NNE CAE 30 E SPA 15 WNW HKY 35 SSW BLF 20 SW SSU 25 WNW SHD 20 S MRB 10 NNE BWI 15 WNW DOV 30 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 15 NNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAN 25 SW RAL 25 E OXR 35 WNW PMD 20 SSE NID 15 NNW SGU 35 WNW PGA 55 NNE INW 65 SSW SOW 10 WNW DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TLH 35 NNW AYS 15 S AGS 45 SSE TYS 45 N CSV 10 NW LEX 20 SSE DAY 20 ENE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BUB 10 ENE MCK 25 SE LAA LHX 15 E AKO 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 35 SW BIL 20 WNW GGW 25 NE ISN 40 W DVL 40 SW STC 25 SSW FRM 25 ENE BUB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... REMNANT T.D. FRANCES CIRCULATION OVER ERN TN/WRN NC AS OF 11Z IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO SWRN PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG/ WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE LOW TRACK TODAY...TO THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA AND NE OF COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL GA. REGIONAL VWPS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SLY 40-50 KT 850-500 MB WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING FROM SRN GA INTO CNTRL VA. DESPITE LARGELY MERIDIONAL... UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...LOCAL BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS E OF CIRCULATION CENTER COUPLED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEED JUST OFF THE GROUND IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLY STRONG NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN CONFLUENT/SPIRAL BANDS ORIGINATING OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN REGION. TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ENTIRE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE BEING INVOF OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN NC AND SRN VA. GIVEN SYSTEM EVOLUTION TOWARD EXTRATROPICAL...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY BIASED TOWARD TIME OF PEAK DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY EXTEND NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT...OWING LARGELY TO PERSISTENT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF SURFACE LOW. IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED AT 1630Z OVER PORTIONS OF NC AND/OR VA. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO WW 813 AND ANY ASSOCIATED MCD/S. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 16:24:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 11:24:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409081625.i88GPYG15897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081623 SWODY1 SPC AC 081618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 SE FLO 15 NW FLO 35 ESE CLT 35 SW GSO 30 SSE PSK 15 NE PSK 30 SSE EKN 20 WSW MRB 25 WNW BWI 25 N NHK 30 WNW ORF 15 NNW EWN ILM 25 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BBW 25 N MCK 35 NE GLD 25 SSW AKO 35 SSW BFF 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 55 SSE LVM 3HT 70 E LWT 20 NE GDV 40 S P24 20 SSW JMS 30 WNW AXN 15 ESE FSD 15 NE BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ART 15 WNW BML 15 NNW EPM ...CONT... 25 SSE TLH 25 NE AYS 15 S AGS 10 WNW LOZ 15 NE LEX 15 WNW CMH 25 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 20 S RAL 25 NNW LAX 35 WNW PMD 35 NNE DAG 10 WSW SGU 35 W PGA 55 NNE INW 45 WSW FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NC NWD INTO VA.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES IN NC/VA. ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL L0W AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING EWD WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONE TROUGH /NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO ERN NEB/ WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH MOVES E OF THE REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF SW MT WILL MOVE EWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/WEAK LOW FROM NW NEB TO SE MT...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. LASTLY...L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /LARGELY OROGRAPHIC/ MAY FORM ACROSS THIS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NC/VA AREA... THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE NNEWD NEAR OR JUST W OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT...FROM NE TN TO WRN PA. E AND NE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC/VA TO THE E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS SC/NC. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NC/VA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC/VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL NC...AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL VA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE WARM SECTOR. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 19:55:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 14:55:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409081956.i88JuEG13989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081950 SWODY1 SPC AC 081946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FAY 50 NNW FLO 45 W SOP 20 NNW GSO ROA 10 S MGW AOO 30 WSW ABE 15 SSE PHL 20 WNW ORF 40 N EWN 15 NE OAJ 25 S FAY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BBW 10 SE GLD 35 E LIC 30 NNW LIC 35 SSW BFF 55 S 81V 20 N GCC 50 NW COD 3HT 70 E LWT 35 ESE SDY 40 SE JMS 15 SSE ATY 15 NNE YKN 15 S BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TLH 20 NNE AYS 10 WNW CAE 10 SSW LOZ 25 SE LUK 15 WNW CMH 25 NE CLE ...CONT... 10 W ART 15 WNW BML 15 NNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 20 S RAL 25 NNW LAX 35 WNW PMD 35 NNE DAG 10 WSW SGU 35 W PGA 55 NNE INW 45 WSW FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SW VA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW E OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR NWD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N CNTRL VA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF FRANCES CONTINUES NNEWD. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING ADVECTING NWD THROUGH ERN NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA WITH A CORRESPONDING AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG... PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL THROUGH NRN VA WHERE THE FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THEREFORE THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN VA AS STORMS MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN NC. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD AND MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT SOME THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ..DIAL.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 05:49:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 00:49:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409100551.i8A5p2O31920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100549 SWODY1 SPC AC 100544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 SSW HIB 55 NNW AXN 35 S GFK 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 35 ENE CRP ...CONT... 10 WNW GLS 25 S POE 15 NE LUL 40 NNE ATL 45 NW CAE 20 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 30 NNE MSN 20 WNW DBQ 30 NNE GRI 55 N CAO 55 NNE SAF 30 S GCN 50 E BLH 40 SE YUM ...CONT... CZZ 20 NE LGB 35 S BFL 45 SE U31 45 ESE EVW 15 SSW BFF 25 NNE AIA 55 SSW PHP 40 NW RAP 70 NE BIL 45 NNW HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND APPROACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY 00Z. LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS ERN ND/NRN MN. THIS WILL PROVE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A FAIRLY WARM PLUME OF ELEVATED AIR SPREADS NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL HEATING APPEARS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN ONTARIO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BORDER IN SRN CANADA...THEN POSSIBLE SWD INTO NRN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WITH ROUGHLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 12:32:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 07:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409101233.i8ACXrO07374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101231 SWODY1 SPC AC 101227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 30 SSE ELO 45 SSW HIB 45 SE FAR 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DRT 30 NE JCT 15 W TPL 25 E CLL 40 ESE POE 15 NE LUL 40 NNE ATL 45 NW FLO 20 NNE HSE ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO 15 ENE OFK 55 N CAO 55 NNE SAF 30 S GCN 50 E BLH 40 SE YUM ...CONT... CZZ 20 NE LGB 35 S BFL 75 ENE TPH 25 ESE SLC 35 ESE RKS 50 WSW CPR 55 SSE SHR 30 NNW SHR 50 ENE LWT 65 N OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN PLAINS/NRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THIS PERIOD WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW THAT WAS FRANCES AND NRN STREAM TROUGH MERGER WILL LIFT NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BUT LEAVE A TRAILING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN ROCKIES WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MN... VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME AND LIFT AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGHS WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FROM NEB INTO SWRN MN THIS MORNING. THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OR SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT WILL STILL FORM IN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS. MORE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FOR LONGER-LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS NRN MN BY EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THIS AREA. A FEW BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRANSITION NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO ONTARIO BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 16:23:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 11:23:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409101624.i8AGOOO04266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101621 SWODY1 SPC AC 101617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO HIB 40 NW BRD 45 ENE FAR 20 ESE GFK 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN 15 SW RAL 25 N LAX 15 NW PMD 30 ESE EDW 15 NE DAG 50 NE DAG 65 WSW LAS 65 SSW DRA 45 ENE NID 50 WSW DRA 65 NNE DRA 40 S ELY 15 ENE U24 40 SE EVW 35 ESE RIW 40 ENE WRL 65 ENE BIL 40 N MLS ISN 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO OFK 30 SE LBF 50 SSW LAA 55 WSW RTN 70 SE PGA 65 NNW GBN 70 SSW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 15 NNE HDO 10 NNE CLL 30 NW HOU 35 NE HOU 25 WNW LCH 25 SSE POE 35 N BTR 20 SSE LUL 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MT AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NRN STATES. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO Q-G THERMAL ADVECTION PROCESSES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN WWD INTO WY WILL MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING N CENTRAL MN/ERN SD BY THIS EVENING AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/SWRN MN/NRN NEB BY 11/12Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM LAYER BASED NEAR 850 MB THAT IS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SURFACE PARCELS FROM REACHING THE LFC. HOWEVER SEVERAL AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION /SWRN MN..NRN ND...AND NRN CO INTO WRN NEB/ ARE SPREADING EWD AND NEWD IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF MN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 55-60F RANGE WILL BE COMMON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SD INTO NRN MN WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE LOCATED...CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CAP IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP. NONETHELESS... MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUC/ETA/GFS AND 09Z SREF INDICATE THAT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED...WITH THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO PARTS OF NRN MN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION OF CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THUS...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 19:57:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 14:57:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409101958.i8AJwpO21835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101955 SWODY1 SPC AC 101950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO HIB 40 NW BRD 45 ENE FAR 20 ESE GFK 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO OFK 30 SE LBF 50 SSW LAA 55 WSW RTN 70 SE PGA 65 NNW GBN 70 SSW GBN ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN 15 SW RAL 25 N LAX 15 NW PMD 30 ESE EDW 15 NE DAG 50 NE DAG 65 WSW LAS 65 SSW DRA 40 ENE NID 50 ESE BIH 30 S ELY 15 ENE U24 40 SE EVW 35 ESE RIW 40 ENE WRL 65 ENE BIL 40 N MLS ISN 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 15 NNE HDO 10 NNE CLL 30 NW HOU 35 NE HOU 25 WNW LCH 25 SSE POE 35 N BTR 20 SSE LUL 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NCNTRL WY AT MID-AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD THROUGH THE DAKS AND INTO MN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAD MOVED TO A 19Z POSITION FROM NWRN MN-NERN SD-NERN WY AND WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE TONIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED OWING TO WARM H85-H7 TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE 18Z RUC AND 09Z SREF SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS INITIATION IS NOT LIKELY...BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS REACHING THE LFC WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN INTO NWRN ONT WHERE CAP WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND MLCAPES OF 750-1200 J/KG EXIST. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR INCREASING POST-FRONTAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD INTO ERN ND AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE FRONT MOVES NEWD. THE START OF THIS SCENARIO MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH ELEVATION TSTMS DEVELOPING/ EXPANDING ACROSS ERN WY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THE HIGHEST RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE IN NRN MN WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED. MORE ISOLD THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD AND EXTREME NCNTRL NEB. ..RACY.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 00:38:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 19:38:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409110039.i8B0deO09849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110037 SWODY1 SPC AC 110032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 25 SE CWA 35 SW LSE OFK 30 SE LBF 45 NNE CAO 50 NNW LVS 40 NE INW 60 WNW PHX 70 SSW GBN ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 25 SE RAL 25 WSW DAG 45 NNE DAG 30 W MLF 30 S RKS 35 S CPR 50 SSE 81V 35 SSW MBG 30 SSE JMS 30 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW COT 30 SSW SAT 60 SE AUS 30 N GLS 20 WNW 7R4 35 NNE MSY 65 NNW PNS 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY EXHIBIT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PREVENTED SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A FEW WEAK UPPER VORT MAXIMA ARE...HOWEVER...LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THIS REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. DEEP CONVECTION TRAILS THE LEAD VORT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WELL SW INTO SERN WY/NRN CO. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN ND...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COOLING NEEDED TO ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...IT APPEARS POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE WHERE INITIATION OCCURS...OR PERHAPS ACROSS NRN MN WHERE MUCH WEAKER INHIBITION IS OBSERVED...PER INL SOUNDING. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 05:44:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 00:44:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409110545.i8B5jsO10716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110544 SWODY1 SPC AC 110539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 40 SE DVL 50 ENE BIS 30 NNW DIK 20 WNW OLF 60 SE HVR 25 WSW HLN 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MTC 15 SSE JXN 15 SW CGX 35 NNE DSM 30 NW SUX 10 WSW MHE 30 NNE HON 40 NNE RWF 55 W IWD 75 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SMX 55 NNE BFL U31 20 W SLC 40 N VEL 50 W CAG 30 W EGE 45 ENE DRO 25 WNW SAF 15 SE ONM 20 WSW TCS 50 NW SAD 25 S PRC 35 ENE BLH 10 WSW YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 E JCT 40 NNW HOU 35 WNW LFT 15 SSW MCB MEI 20 NE RMG 15 NW CLT RDU 20 SE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...30-60M...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...VEERED LLJ WILL LIFT QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC WHICH APPEARS TO FAVOR WEAKENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO GENERATE CONVECTION. 00Z MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING OVER SRN MN/NRN IA...POSSIBLY NOT REGENERATING LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LARGE SCALE FOCUS ACROSS CANADA. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITHIN DEEPENING WLY FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR GRB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS REGION...AND MAINLY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 12:39:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 07:39:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409111241.i8BCfDO12663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111238 SWODY1 SPC AC 111234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MBS 25 ENE GRR 40 NNW CGX 35 NNE DSM 30 NW SUX 10 WSW MHE 30 NNE HON 15 WSW STC 45 ESE DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 10 SW DVL 45 NNE BIS 30 NNW DIK 20 WNW OLF 60 SE HVR 25 WSW HLN 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 10 W SMX 55 NNE BFL U31 20 W SLC 40 N VEL 50 W CAG 30 W EGE 45 ENE DRO 25 WNW SAF 40 NW ONM 75 NW TCS 45 SSW SOW 25 S PRC 35 ENE BLH 10 WSW YUM ...CONT... DRT 35 E JCT 40 NNW HOU 35 WNW LFT 15 SSW MCB MEI 50 WNW AHN 15 NW CLT RDU 20 SE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN OF MODEST AMPLITUDE CONTINUES ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TODAY WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST AND THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN ROCKIES...AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF OF MEXICO. TSTM ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WRN FLANK OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER RIDGE. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND MASS TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE BORDER...FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...A NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM ERN WI ACROSS NRN MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS AND NCEP SREF DATA ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SMALL REGION FROM NERN/ERN WI NEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI BECOMING WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND CAPPING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT MORE VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION THIS AREA IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. WITH 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ANTICIPATED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RESULTS IN 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS MAY REVEAL GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL AND A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED TO LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 16:08:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 11:08:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409111610.i8BGAIO17423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111607 SWODY1 SPC AC 111603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 7R4 20 S BTR 30 SSW LUL 40 SSW TCL 25 NW LGC 15 SW AGS 30 SW FLO 35 E RWI 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE OSC 10 SE MBL JVL 35 NW DBQ 25 S MCW 40 SW OTG 20 N FSD 25 ENE BKX 60 ENE STC 50 WNW IWD 65 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 45 NNE SAN 35 S RAL 20 NW RAL 25 ENE OXR 35 NNE OXR 35 NW PMD 20 W NID 60 NNW NID 10 SSW BIH 35 SW U31 40 ENE EKO 65 WNW OGD 30 E VEL 45 W ASE 35 SE MTJ 30 NNE GNT 30 SSW GNT 55 SE SOW 45 NNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNW DRT 50 SW SJT 10 SE SJT 55 ENE JCT 20 NNE AUS 35 N VCT 25 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL 35 SSW P24 25 SE ISN 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 25 NNE 3DU 20 NW BTM 55 W 27U 25 N LMT 20 E MFR 65 SE EUG 45 S PDT 25 NNW S80 35 W S06 40 NNE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND MN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WI/UPPER MI AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS SRN MN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD TODAY...REACHING AN ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL WI/NRN IA LINE THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM UPPER MI INTO WI AND SRN MN. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GRB AND APX EXHIBIT STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM ABOVE WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB...BUT THIS WARM LAYER WILL ALSO TEND TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FOCUSED LIFT IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI SWWD INTO WI WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PERMIT LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING TO OCCUR RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AS DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ...SRN NV/NWRN AZ/SWRN UT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SRN NV AREA. 12Z DRA SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1 INCH/ AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SRN NV INTO NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG. THUS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR EVIDENT IN THE DRA SOUNDING AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS SRN NV. THIS WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 19:51:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 14:51:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409111952.i8BJqIO28971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111948 SWODY1 SPC AC 111943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 7R4 40 SSE MCB 50 ESE LUL 10 SE BHM 25 SE ATL 20 SW CAE 15 E FLO 35 E RWI 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 45 NNE SAN 35 S RAL 20 NW RAL 25 ENE OXR 35 NNE OXR 35 NW PMD 20 W NID 60 NNW NID 10 SSW BIH 35 SW U31 40 ENE EKO 65 WNW OGD 30 E VEL 45 W ASE 35 SE MTJ 30 NNE GNT 30 SSW GNT 55 SE SOW 45 NNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNW DRT 50 SW SJT 10 SE SJT 20 S SEP 30 W LFK 55 NNE HOU 50 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL 35 SSW P24 25 SE ISN 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 25 NNE 3DU 20 NW BTM 55 W 27U 25 N LMT 20 E MFR 65 SE EUG 45 S PDT 25 NNW S80 35 W S06 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE APN HTL 35 NW MKG 35 NW MKE 15 NW MSN 25 E LSE 30 N LSE 25 NE EAU 35 N RHI 25 NNW MQT 115 NNW ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TAIL-END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO A 19Z POSITION FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR-NWRN WI-SWRN MN. THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI TONIGHT...WHILE WRN PORTIONS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED PER RUC ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS OWING TO WARM H85-H7 TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE TRANSLATING QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH ONTARIO... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM NEEDED TO INITIATE TSTMS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE IN NCNTRL/NERN WI. LATEST VSBL IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD VCNTY WAUSAU AND THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS AFTER 21Z. GIVEN 40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM...ONE OR TWO STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LOWER CO RVR VLY NEWD INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ... GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOW A PLUME OF 1+ INCH VALUES STREAMING NEWD FROM OFF OF BAJA INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ. DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...AUGMENTED BY H25 JETLET OF 50 KTS. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS GIVING LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. ..RACY.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 00:50:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 19:50:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409120052.i8C0qAO07662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120049 SWODY1 SPC AC 120045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4LW 40 NNW 4LW 65 NNE LMT 30 SSW RDM 30 ENE RDM 20 SSE LWS 50 NNE S80 50 SW MSO 60 E S80 50 SE S80 55 SSE BKE 40 NNE 4LW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 60 WNW FCA 30 N 3TH 30 WNW S06 40 NE GEG 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 NW EDW 10 E BIH 45 SSW U31 40 SE BAM 55 N ENV 35 N OGD 15 ESE VEL 15 WSW MTJ 30 SSE DRO 20 WSW 4SL 30 SW GNT 30 W SOW 35 WNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 20 SSW JCT 50 E JCT 25 WSW AUS 35 N VCT 30 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 35 N MCB 15 ESE UOX 40 ENE MKL 15 SE CKV 20 NNW BNA 35 E BNA 50 SE BNA 30 S HSV 15 SW BHM 45 SSE BHM 15 S LGC 45 WSW AGS 35 SW FLO 25 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E OSC 40 NW MKG 10 N LNR 20 ENE LSE 35 NNW VOK 40 S IMT 15 NE ESC 50 ENE MQT 80 NNE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL 45 ESE MOT 35 W P24 15 NE ISN 60 N ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SW DESERT... SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SERN CA AND SRN NV. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN BAJA CA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS SCNTRL CA AND SRN NV. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE MARGINAL THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES... A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM THE ERN UP OF MI EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR ERN WI. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER ERN ONTARIO. THIS JET IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE IS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION BY 03Z. ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 05:53:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 00:53:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409120554.i8C5swO03315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120552 SWODY1 SPC AC 120548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUL 35 W AUG 15 SSW SYR 20 WNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK 35 SW ARG 20 N EVV 40 ENE 5I3 15 SW PSK 40 WNW GSO 15 SSE CLT 15 NNE CAE 30 S FLO 25 SSW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 55 SW SJT 45 ENE JCT 10 SE AUS 30 N NIR 10 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 NNE ATY 55 N PHP 30 SSW CDR 30 S LHX 55 ENE 4CR 80 NW TCS 35 SE GBN 10 NW CZZ 35 NW DAG 65 SW ELY EKO 55 SE 4LW 50 N LMT 45 NE RDM 55 ESE EPH 40 NNE FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FAR NRN MN... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NWRN US IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO MT TODAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN MT EWD TODAY SHIFTING THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO MN BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE ORIENTED ACROSS ERN AND NRN MN BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL INITIATE NEAR DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...THE CAP WEAKENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY IN NRN MN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF CELLS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NEAR SUNSET AS CELLS MOVE ENEWD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN US WILL MOVE EWD INTO MT SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SE MT AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK WHICH WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. IF IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE MT...SW ND AND NW SD. ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 12:28:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 07:28:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409121229.i8CCTPO25793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121227 SWODY1 SPC AC 121222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 45 SE BJI 55 NNE ATY 30 NNE VTN 25 SSW AIA 25 SSE PUB 30 NW ROW 20 ESE ALM 35 SE GBN 40 W TRM NID 65 SW ELY 10 SSE EKO 20 NE SVE 10 N LMT 45 NE RDM PUW 40 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK 35 SW ARG 35 E MVN 15 WSW DAY 30 SW CMH 40 WNW GSO CLT 10 WSW AND 30 SE AHN 25 SE AGS 40 S FLO 20 WNW CRE 10 S ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING SPREADS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND MAY AID SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CONUS...BENIGN LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING ACROSS ERN CANADA...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO RECOVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER. NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS VICINITY OF WY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SD BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ASCENT WILL LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN VERY DRY SUBCLOUD AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN WY/MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE EVENING. A COUPLE OF SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED BY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW. ...NRN MN... WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NRN MN. WHILE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND SERN MANITOBA...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD INTO LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SSWWD INTO MN AND ERN SD. IF STORMS CAN BUILD INTO MN...STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 16:16:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 11:16:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409121618.i8CGICO31585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121616 SWODY1 SPC AC 121611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 20 WSW MDH 25 SW LUK 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 15 S PSK 15 NW AVL 55 ENE RMG 35 WNW ATL 40 NW MCN 45 SSE AHN 25 W CAE 15 SW FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 N ATY 20 WSW MHE BUB 25 ESE IML 35 S AKO 30 S LHX 35 SE RTN 15 ENE ABQ 25 SSE GNT 70 NW TCS 50 NE SAD 70 E PHX 40 NW PHX 45 E YUM 25 ESE BLH 35 SE EED 50 ENE DRA 30 W P38 35 S ENV 30 NNW DPG 55 W OGD 60 NNE ENV 40 NNE EKO 40 NNW EKO 25 N WMC 65 ESE 4LW 15 NE 4LW 70 SSE RDM BKE 30 SE GEG 30 NNW 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN STATES. NE/SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NERN ND SWWD ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSTREAM WARM FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY LIFTS NWD TO NEAR THE NRN MN/CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OVER NERN WY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE LOW MOVING ENEWD INTO SD TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN MN. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CAP WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARMING ALOFT SPREADS ENEWD FROM THE PLAINS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LIMITED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER SERN MANITOBA AND NWRN ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NRN WY/SRN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS WWD INTO SD...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND PARTS OF ND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ...TN VALLEY... WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR TOWARD WRN TN. SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -11C ACCORDING TO 12Z LZK SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC HOURLY ANALYSES. STRONG HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F/ IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG FROM WRN TN INTO MS. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS APPARENT SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THIS AXIS...CU IS DEVELOPING WWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN AND NEW STORMS ARE FORMING OVER NWRN TN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EWD. PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 20:14:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 15:14:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409122015.i8CKFTO14274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 20 WSW MDH 25 SW LUK 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 15 S PSK 15 NW AVL 55 ENE RMG 35 WNW ATL 40 NW MCN 45 SSE AHN 25 W CAE 15 SW FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 N ATY 20 WSW MHE BUB 25 ESE IML 35 S AKO 30 S LHX 35 SE RTN 15 ENE ABQ 25 SSE GNT 70 NW TCS 50 NE SAD 70 E PHX 40 NW PHX 45 E YUM 25 ESE BLH 35 SE EED 50 ENE DRA 30 W P38 35 S ENV 30 NNW DPG 55 W OGD 60 NNE ENV 40 NNE EKO 40 NNW EKO 25 N WMC 65 ESE 4LW 15 NE 4LW 70 SSE RDM BKE 30 SE GEG 30 NNW 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VLY... LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50-60 KT H25 JETLET ROUNDING THE BASE OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER WRN TN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AND HEATING HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NRN MS. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN 6 C/KM /18Z BNA SOUNDING/...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE H7 AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE RISKS OF ISOLD PULSE SEVERE TSTMS GIVING SEVERE HAIL/WIND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION WILL MIGRATE ONTO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN SASK TO NRN WY WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SEWD...REACHING A CNTRL DAKS TO NWRN NEB LINE BY 12Z MONDAY. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE MINIMAL. TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS WY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SERN MT AND THE DAKS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES EWD. INITIAL TSTMS OVER NERN WY/SERN MT MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL FOCUS ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION. THUS...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. THOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM. ..RACY.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 00:56:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 19:56:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409130057.i8D0vcO14118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130055 SWODY1 SPC AC 130050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 20 ENE BRD 25 N ATY 25 WSW MHE 10 NW BBW 50 NNW GLD 20 NNW LHX 40 NNW LVS 20 NE ABQ 40 W ONM 45 NE SAD 70 WNW SAD 50 SE PHX 25 SSE GBN 25 E YUM 15 S BLH 45 NNW EED 30 SE ELY 45 SW ENV 20 N EKO 55 NW WMC 65 ESE 4LW 10 E 4LW 65 NNE 4LW 35 W BKE 25 ENE ALW 25 NNW GEG 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 15 NNE CGI 45 NNE SDF 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 30 SW PSK 40 E HSS 50 ENE RMG 25 ESE RMG 10 WSW ATL 30 SSE ATL 30 W AGS 35 WSW FLO 20 NE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NE MS/NW AL... NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN TN...NE MS AND NW AL WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. THE BNA 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE BEING DRIVEN MOSTLY BY OUTFLOW INTERACTION AND THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DROPS THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. ...NE WY/SE MT/ND/NW SD... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NE ND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN WY WITH ABOUT 750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT 500 MB...THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS FAR ERN WY MOVING INTO SWRN SD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS ERN WY TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OVER NE MT AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD. THIS SUGGESTS THE STORMS THAT MOVE OVER FAR NWRN SD AND SW ND WILL HAVE A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AND WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND ND. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 06:03:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 01:03:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409130604.i8D64rO26771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130602 SWODY1 SPC AC 130557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 E ELO 35 NW EAU 20 WSW FOD 25 W BIE 40 SSW HSI 50 SW EAR 25 SE LBF 45 NW BBW 40 WNW HON 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 30 W VCT 30 NNW VCT 40 SSE MCB 45 SSW LUL 25 SW CBM 25 WNW DYR 40 ESE POF 25 SW MTO 10 E MTO 35 WNW DAY 25 SW ZZV 15 WNW PKB 10 SE BLF 20 S AVL 20 ENE AND 20 NW CAE 15 E CAE 20 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 NNW ANJ 15 WSW LNR 15 N FLV 25 NW GAG CVS 50 E ALM 35 SSW TCS 30 NNW SAD 25 SE INW 65 WSW FMN 50 ESE VEL 30 SSE JAC 45 SW MQM 50 NNW BOI 30 ESE DLS 25 NNW UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD AS A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS ALLOWING LOWER TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS TO GATHER ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST ACROSS NWRN MN. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FIRST INITIATE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF A LINE DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO SE SD AND ECNTRL NEB BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z ACROSS WRN MN SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS MN WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE 45 TO 55 KT. IN ADDITION...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT MAINLY ACROSS MN AND ERN SD. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WRN MN WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS MN...SERN SD AND ERN NEB DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR BOWING ECHOES. THE LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING REACHING NW WI AND NRN IA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 12:23:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 07:23:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409131224.i8DCObO15194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131222 SWODY1 SPC AC 131217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX 40 NNW EAU 50 NNE OMA 25 WNW BIE 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 20 SE SAF 25 E ALS 15 S VEL 50 ESE MLD 35 ESE SUN 80 ESE BNO 20 ENE SLE 25 SSW HQM ...CONT... 140 NE CMX 25 ESE LSE 15 ENE MHK 55 NNW P28 10 ENE LAA 30 S LHX 40 NW CAO 30 ENE TCC HOB 65 SSW GDP ...CONT... 20 W MFE 30 W VCT 55 SW LFK 35 SSE BTR 25 NE MCB 25 SW CBM 10 ENE MEM 40 ESE POF 25 SSE MVN 20 NNW IND 15 ESE MIE 25 SW CMH 30 ESE PKB 25 WNW SSU 20 S AVL 20 ENE AND 40 SSE SPA 35 NE CAE 20 SSE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL ESTABLISHED STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...FROM WRN NEB NNEWD INTO ERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX...CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN ID...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH A 60-90M 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES WILL RIPPLE ENEWD ALONG INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT AND ACT TO SHIFT THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY EWD/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1800 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP IN AN AXIS FROM NEB TO MN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED INTO MID-AFTERNOON GIVEN A DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG CAP WILL AID IN EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. WEAKER CAP AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION SHOULD PROMOTE INITIAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN AND NRN MN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING ACT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACROSS MN...40KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT WILL RESULT STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SHEAR VECTORS ALSO REMAIN ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE FRONT SUGGESTING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CELLULAR...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WITH TIME. WHILE NEAR SURFACE FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY VEERED...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR INVOF FRONTAL WAVES WHERE LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN GREATER SRH AND STORM INFLOW THROUGH EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL MN THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT NEAR THE FRONT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ELIMINATED THROUGH WEAK ASCENT AND HEATING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAKER ACROSS AREAS FROM SWRN MN INTO NEB ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER... FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXHIBIT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING LARGE HAIL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUTFLOW DOMINANT ACTIVITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...COUPLED WITH LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...WILL SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 16:05:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 11:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409131607.i8DG72O02268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131603 SWODY1 SPC AC 131558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ELO 15 SE MKT 40 WSW FOD 30 SSE HSI 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 30 E LRD 45 S SAT 40 ENE AUS 15 W GGG 45 NE LIT 10 WSW POF 35 WSW MTO 55 S CGX 20 SSE SBN 10 SSE FDY 20 NNW UNI 15 E BLF 15 SW GSP AGS 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 ENE CMX CWA 20 SW OTM 20 NW EMP 15 WSW RSL 15 NNW GCK 35 WSW AMA 45 N HOB 55 SW INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 50 WNW SAD 10 ENE SOW 25 WSW FMN 35 N CEZ 15 SW GJT 30 SSE VEL 50 NW CAG 25 NE RWL CPR 35 E RIW 40 NW RIW 20 SSE IDA 50 SSE BKE 30 ESE DLS 20 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER /NOW BETWEEN ABR AND JMS/ EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOME AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS/TROUGHS OVER THE REGION. MAIN COLD FRONT APPEARS TO DRAPE FROM FAR NWRN MN SWD INTO LOW CENTER AND THEN MORE WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TROUGH EXTENDED SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD TODAY INTO CENTRAL MN/FAR ERN SD/CENTRAL NEB...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN MN INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NEB LATER TONIGHT. OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK. COMBINATION OF DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AND SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST NEAR THE FRONT/LOW CENTER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NWRN/CENTRAL MN AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN SD. FARTHER SSWWD ALONG THE FRONT...VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE WEAKER. THIS SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN NEB INTO SERN SD/NERN IA/SWRN MN MAY BE SLOWER TO OCCUR AND TIED TO STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT /MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z/. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER DARK. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH BASED. ...TN VALLEY REGION... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL LIKELY AGAIN FOCUS AN AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS TODAY. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 20:01:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 15:01:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409132002.i8DK2oO07114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132000 SWODY1 SPC AC 131955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ELO 15 SE MKT 40 WSW FOD 30 SSE HSI 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 60 SE LRD 45 WNW COT 30 NW SAT 15 W GGG HOT POF CMI 55 S CGX SBN FDY UNI PSK GSP CAE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT CWA OTM TOP RSL GCK 35 WSW AMA 45 N HOB 55 SW INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 50 SSW TUS SOW CEZ U28 VEL 25 NE RWL CPR IDA 50 SSE BKE SLE 45 SSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MN SWWD TO CENTRAL/SWRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN DAKOTAS -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND ACCELERATE TO NWRN ONT BY END OF PERIOD...WHILE DEAMPLIFYING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION. AT SFC..COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM FRONTAL WAVE LOW ALONG ONT/MANITOBA BORDER...SWWD ACROSS NWRN MN AND SERN ND INTO ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN JMS-ABR...THEN WSWWD ACROSS NWRN SD. TWO SECONDARY BOUNDARIES -- SFC TROUGHS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS -- EXTEND SWD TO SWWD FROM JMS/ABR LOW -- 1. ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE TO EXTREME SERN WY AND 2. FROM NEAR HON-MHE-GLD-LIC. EXPECT NRN TWO BOUNDARIES TO CONSOLIDATE/MERGE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD ACROSS SD...WHILE SRN BOUNDARY REMAINS DISTINCT PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION GENERALLY BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CENTRAL MN TO NERN NEB. HOWEVER...EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SWRN SD MAY BECOME SFC BASED FARTHER E ACROSS ERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AND 60S F SFC DEW POINTS -- WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 14/00Z. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE OVER MN WHERE 50 KT LLJ CONTRIBUTES TO 0-1 KM SRH IN 200-300 K/KG RANGE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS GENERALLY 35-45 KT. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN CAP STRENGTH...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP IN INTENSELY HEATED/MIXED AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH...OVER SWRN NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. HOWEVER...A FEW CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS BETWEEN 22Z-01Z. ...TN VALLEY REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MULTICELL TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THIS REGION. LARGELY DIURNAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND INVOF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT E OF TROUGH ALOFT -- COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING AND FAVORABLE SFC MOISTURE -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKENING CINH. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW POOLS...BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z BMX/BNA RAOBS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO MID TN...PER LATEST VWP...18Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOTED PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MID TN AND AL...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL POTENTIAL. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER APPROXIMATELY 3Z WITH INTENSIFYING DIABATIC COOLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 00:55:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 19:55:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409140056.i8E0umO12336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140054 SWODY1 SPC AC 140050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ELO 20 E MKT 55 WSW FOD 10 WNW LNK 40 SW HSI 20 SE MCK 30 W MCK 15 NE IML 30 SSE MHN 45 SSW MHE 20 NNE ATY RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MFE 40 ESE LRD 25 SSE COT 35 SSE HDO 30 NE AUS TXK ARG 20 E CGI 45 SW LUK 35 NNW CRW 35 SW EKN 15 S SHD 25 SSE LYH GSO 15 WNW AND 40 ESE ATL 35 NE MCN 15 SW AGS 30 SW FLO 10 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 50 E SOW 20 E GUP CEZ 30 NNW GJT 50 ESE RKS 30 SSW CPR 35 NE CPR 50 N CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 NNW LND 50 NE MLD 35 N BYI 30 NNW BOI 30 SW DLS AST ...CONT... 65 NNW CMX 55 NE EAU 15 SW LSE 25 WNW LWD 30 SW MHK 65 NE AMA 55 W LBB 45 WSW INK 50 W MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS.... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS... A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM SW MN TO FAR NW KS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO IN WRN MN. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 100O TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW KS TO WRN MN. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE BEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER ERN AND SRN NEB WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM FROM SWRN MN TO NW KS AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MN...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN MN SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MN LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HAIL THREAT AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SW MN AND ERN NEB SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING LINE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. ALTHOUGH DECREASING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ERN MN AND NRN IA DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 05:43:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 00:43:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409140545.i8E5j6O28028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140542 SWODY1 SPC AC 140537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GLD 25 ENE LIC 45 ENE DEN 40 ENE FCL 30 S BFF 25 SE AIA 30 NW BUB 35 E YKN 20 N MKT 45 NNW EAU 45 W RHI 25 S RHI 20 E CWA 35 E VOK 35 W CID 30 NE FNB 35 WNW CNK 30 ESE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE APN MKE RFD MLI IRK MKC 40 S RSL 45 NNE LAA 20 SW LIC DEN FCL CYS 45 NNW BFF 60 WNW CDR WRL JAC 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS ABR 10 NNW ATY 55 SW AXN HIB 30 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT TPL 60 SW TYR LFK BPT 20 S BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM HUM MSY 65 SSW SEM TOI AUO 35 NW RMG CSV 45 NW TRI DAN 25 NNE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN MN AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS SRN NEB AND NWRN IA. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NWRN WI SWWD TO CNTRL NEB. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MN AND NRN IA WILL IMPEDE SFC HEATING TODAY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND STRONG SFC HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NEB TO WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z NEAR OMAHA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS UPON INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE EXPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN IA AND SRN NEB. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MN AND NRN IA...LESS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BACKED SFC WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 55 KT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ...NE CO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F ACROSS NERN CO AND SWRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...INVERTED V WIND-PROFILES AND HIGH LCLS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE ERN CO PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL BY ABOUT 03Z ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 12:56:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 07:56:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409141257.i8ECvRO08413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141254 SWODY1 SPC AC 141249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FRM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 35 E DBQ 30 SE CID 30 WSW LWD 10 NE SLN 30 NNW GCK 25 NE LHX 20 NNE PUB 20 NNW COS 15 SSW CYS 45 N CYS 30 WNW BFF 40 ESE AIA 25 W BUB 35 NNW OFK 25 E FRM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE APN 40 NE MKG RFD MLI 20 NE IRK 15 E OJC 15 SW ICT 50 S LAA 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS 25 NNE ABR 40 N ATY AXN HIB 45 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 60 S BWD ACT 35 WNW LFK 50 WSW POE 20 NE LFT 35 NNE MSY 60 NW CEW TOI AUO 25 SW CHA 15 NNW CSV 50 ESE LUK 30 SE CMH 30 NNE PKB 60 N RWI 35 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EWD AND BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ACROSS A DEEP FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR ESTABLISHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LIFTING NNEWD INTO SRN CANADA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ID AND THE NRN GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY....AND OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE LEE CYCLONE...NOW ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...WILL REDEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A FEW TSTMS LIKELY. HURRICANE IVAN WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CNTRL GULF WITH A BAND OF STRONG SLY MID LEVEL FLOW BRUSHING PORTIONS OF SWRN FL. ...ERN NEB ACROSS IA... COMPLICATED FCST SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED EAST THROUGH MUCH OF IA WITH WEAK OUTFLOW/CLOUD BAND TRAILING SWWD INTO SWRN IA AND SERN NEB. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINING WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOPPED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER 1000-2000 J/KG. INITIALLY...STRONGER ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND MAY SUSTAIN AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN NEB INTO NRN IA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF HOT UNSTABLE AIR AND POSSIBLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN IA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT MAY ALSO GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND DEEPENS. FCST SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. EXPECTED LOW LFC NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES THESE LOCATIONS...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY AND SPREAD NEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS IA...THROUGH THE EVENING SUSTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. ...SERN WY/ERN CO INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN/CNTRL KS LATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG HEATING WILL ACT ON MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO AND EXTREME SERN WY TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY BY EVENING. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE MORE LIKELY GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONTAL SURGE BY LATE EVENING WITH THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN AND NCNTRL KS. ...SWRN FL... EXTENSIVE AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IVAN WILL BRUSH PARTS OF SWRN FL THROUGH THIS MORNING. KEY WEST RAOB AND VWP DATA INDICATED A DEEP LAYER OF 40-50KT SELY TO SLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THESE WIND FIELDS...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ISOLD/BRIEF TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE AND ONLY WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 16:25:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 11:25:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409141626.i8EGQVd20521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141624 SWODY1 SPC AC 141620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 25 ESE DBQ 20 WSW STJ 55 S GLD 40 NNW LHX 30 SSE DEN 20 NNW CYS 20 N BFF 45 SW MHN 20 N BBW 35 SSW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 30 SW BWD 40 NW ADM 40 SE PNC 35 SSE ICT 35 SSW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC 20 W MKG 25 SE JVL 15 NE MMO 40 NNW LAF 20 W FDY 10 ESE CAK 45 ENE EKN 20 E NHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LGC 30 SE AND 15 ENE HSS 20 E LEX 30 ENE SDF EVV 10 WNW CGI 40 NE PBF 30 SE MLU 25 SSW MCB 40 NE MOB TOI 15 SSW LGC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL FRONTS/WIND SHIFTS EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AND THEN WWD INTO WY...WHILE LEADING WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM W-CENTRAL IA SWWD INTO NWRN KS. EXPECT FRONTS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER IA/ERN NEB TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING LOW CENTER EXPECTED OVER ERN CO AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO NRN UT. IN ADDITION...WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR OVER NRN IA/SRN MN. AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN NEB/SRN IA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAS HAMPERED HEATING THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN IA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z OVER THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST FOR SUPERCELLS /I.E. AROUND 30 KT/...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. EXPECT OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO WIDESPREAD/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB/IA AND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ACT ON AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. RESULTANT INCREASE IN SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OF ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO AN MCS AND SHIFTS ESEWD OVERNIGHT. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH DIMINISHING TORNADO POTENTIAL AFTER DARK AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED. ...FL KEYS INTO SRN FL... OUTER PERIPHERY OF STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN ROTATE NNWWD ACROSS THE REGION. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 20:07:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 15:07:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409142008.i8EK8wd13253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142004 SWODY1 SPC AC 142000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 25 ESE DBQ FNB 50 N DDC 40 NNW LHX 30 SSE DEN 20 NNW CYS 20 N BFF 35 NW MHN 30 WNW BBW 35 SSW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 50 NNE ABI 20 ENE FSI MKO 40 N BVO 35 SSW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC LAN 45 NNE FWA 20 W FDY 20 WNW CAK 35 E MGW 25 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LGC 30 SE AND 15 ENE HSS 20 E LEX 30 ENE SDF EVV 10 WNW CGI 40 NE PBF 30 SE MLU 25 SSW MCB 40 NE MOB TOI 15 SSW LGC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND BY HURRICANE IVAN. ROCKIES TROUGH IS FCST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ESEWD TOWARD WY/CO THEN TURN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE IVAN WILL PROCEED NWWD-NNWWD ACROSS GULF PER NHC FCSTS. PRIMARY SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN WI ACROSS SRN MN...SERN SD...CENTRAL NEB...THEN WWD TO INVOF E-W PORTION OF NEB/CO BORDER AND CYS RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEN REINFORCED THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO CLOUD COVER OVER NWRN NEB. SEPARATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED FROM N-CENTRAL IA SWWD TO E-CENTRAL NEB AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC FRONT...RELATED TO EARLIER/ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE. EXPECT INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS UPPER-40S/LOW-50S F TO COMBINE WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...500-1000 J/KG WITHIN 50-75 NM TO ITS N. HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIONALLY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS S OF FRONT INDICATE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND ARE MAIN CONCERNS. ANY SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT WHERE SBCAPE STILL EXISTS IN AREA OF LARGE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR -- ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO -- IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT SFC HODOGRAPHS TO ELONGATE RESULTING IN 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG...ALONG AND JUST N OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. HIGH-BASED SEVERE TSTMS WITH WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NWRN KS...IN AREA OF STRONG SFC HEATING AND MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE MAX. REF SC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205. COMPLEX OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT AIDED BY 40-50 KT LLJ. ...ERN NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY... A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WHERE LIFT/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED -- WITH FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. REF SPC WW 819 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER ERN NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL IA. INITIAL THREAT FOR DISCRETE STORMS WILL EVOLVE TOWARD MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR MCS THROUGH LATE EVENING...SHIFTING GENERALLY EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA...WITH POTENTIAL MAINLY BECOMING DAMAGING WIND. ...SW FL... ERN-MOST EDGE OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH FL GULF COAST -- MAINLY S OF TBW AREA -- FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND OF DISCRETE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG LIMITING FACTOR AS WELL...SO AS IVAN MOVES AWAY FROM THIS AREA...VERY MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 01:00:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:00:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409150102.i8F126d17284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150059 SWODY1 SPC AC 150054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 SSE AKO 30 N AKO 25 NE SNY 40 WSW MHN 35 NW BBW 40 W OFK 15 ESE FRM RST 25 ESE RST 30 SSW LSE 40 NW DBQ 15 NW CID 30 WSW CNK 60 SW HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 30 S INK 60 WSW SJT 50 SSW JCT 25 WSW HDO HDO 15 W SAT 50 NNW SAT 60 WNW MWL 35 NNW OKC 20 NNW END 30 W P28 40 SW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC 15 SW LAN 30 E FWA 20 NNE DAY 20 N UNI 35 WSW MGW 15 NW DCA 30 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MOB 20 SSW TOI 35 WSW AHN 25 SSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 30 N LOZ 15 WSW SDF 45 WSW EVV 20 SSW POF 20 NNW HOT 25 NNW SHV 40 SSE SHV 10 SE POE 20 SSW BTR MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...NE CO/SW NEB/FAR NW KS... STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS ERN CO AND NW KS. THE STORMS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AND AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO SRN NEB AND NRN KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER SE WY AND THIS IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NE CO WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 55 TO 65 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN NEB TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION RESULTING IN STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS SW NEB AND FAR NW KS. AS INSTABILITY DROPS LATE THIS EVENING...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MCS MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS. ...IA/FAR SE MN/ERN NEB... A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NW IA AND SRN MN. THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LINE IS NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND IS LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SE MN. THIS IS ENHANCING LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NWRN AND SE MN WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS FAR SE MN...IA...AND ERN NEB. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...WRN FL PENINSULA... THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL BRUSH THE WRN COAST OF FL TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE JUST OFF THE WRN COAST OF FL AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH THE SHORELINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR TAMPA SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST-LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 06:04:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 01:04:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409150605.i8F65Cd07735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150602 SWODY1 SPC AC 150557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PLN 10 S MKG 45 S CGX 15 E SPI 55 S UIN 40 NNW COU 50 SSE P35 15 WNW P35 25 NW DSM 35 N MCW 55 ENE ELO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 10 NW GPT 55 SE MEI 20 SW SEM MGM 40 S CSG ABY 20 WNW VLD 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK 60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 10 SSW RSL 15 W GRI 40 ENE ANW 15 SE PIR 20 NE PIR 40 WSW ABR 60 W AXN 35 SW HIB 25 ENE HIB 20 N ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 25 NNW GGG 10 WSW GGG 45 SSW SHV 45 SSE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM 40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.... ...SRN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... HURRICANE IVAN WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST OF AL...MS AND SE LA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SRN AL AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE MS...AL AND FL PANHANDLE COAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA AS RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER SPREAD INLAND. FATHER WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA...THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN FL COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINBANDS CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WRN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... A L0NG SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS NRN IA INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHOULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN IA...IL AND NE MO...WEAKER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LESS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOW SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN WI...IL... AND LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...N TX/OK... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO OK AND NCNTRL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT THE STORMS COVERAGE MAKING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 06:12:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 01:12:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409150613.i8F6DRd10425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150610 SWODY1 SPC AC 150605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PLN 10 S MKG 45 S CGX 15 E SPI 55 S UIN 40 NNW COU 50 SSE P35 15 WNW P35 25 NW DSM 35 N MCW 55 ENE ELO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 10 NW GPT 55 SE MEI 20 SW SEM MGM 40 S CSG ABY 20 WNW VLD 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK 60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 10 SSW RSL 15 W GRI 40 ENE ANW 15 SE PIR 20 NE PIR 40 WSW ABR 60 W AXN 35 SW HIB 25 ENE HIB 20 N ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 25 NNW GGG 10 WSW GGG 45 SSW SHV 45 SSE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM 40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE LA...FAR SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SW GA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.... CORRECTED TO REMOVE 15% TORNADO CONTOUR ...SRN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... HURRICANE IVAN WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST OF AL...MS AND SE LA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SRN AL AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE MS...AL AND FL PANHANDLE COAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA AS RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER SPREAD INLAND. FATHER WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA...THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN FL COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINBANDS CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WRN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... A L0NG SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS NRN IA INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHOULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN IA...IL AND NE MO...WEAKER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LESS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOW SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN WI...IL... AND LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...N TX/OK... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO OK AND NCNTRL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT THE STORMS COVERAGE MAKING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 12:53:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 07:53:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409151254.i8FCsLd21614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151252 SWODY1 SPC AC 151247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ANJ 40 WSW HTL 20 WNW BEH 25 ENE BMI 45 ENE UIN 20 S OTM 25 S ALO 10 NNE EAU 35 WNW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 30 SW GPT 45 SE MEI 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG 20 W MGR 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK 60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 20 WSW SLN 10 SE GRI 55 E ANW 35 W HON 20 E ABR 25 NW AXN 55 ESE ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 15 ESE TYR 50 SE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM 40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO ERN IA/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO ERN IA/NRN IL... STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN SD/ERN NEB...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TODAY REACHING NERN MN/NRN WI BY 00Z...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. BAND OF 55-65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SWRN MN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD TO NWRN MO...AND THEN SWWD TO A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN MN/WRN WI...EXTENDED EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER INTO CENTRAL WI. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO DLH BY 00Z. GIVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENT 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST AS IT TRANSLATES NNEWD INTO WRN/NRN WI BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MN INTO CENTRAL TO NRN WI THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. SOME CLOUDINESS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG KINEMATICS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST KEEPING A SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN IA/NRN IL INTO MUCH OF WI TO THE U.P. OF MI AND FAR NWRN LOWER MI. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REINTENSIFY ACROSS WRN WI AND ERN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ENEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ACROSS MO TO OK...WEAKER UPPER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... HURRICANE IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE AL COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF IVAN AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. LOW LCLS/ WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE REALIZED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE OUTER BANDS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 16:15:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 11:15:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409151616.i8FGGld02218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151612 SWODY1 SPC AC 151607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 45 SE MEI 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG 20 W MGR 35 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ANJ 30 WSW HTL 30 NNE BEH 15 W MMO 30 ENE OTM 35 SSE MCW MSP 65 ENE STC 55 NNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 W INK 15 SW LBB 40 ENE GAG 20 S FNB 25 NW DSM 25 NW MCW 15 NNW MKT 10 WNW STC 35 NE BRD 55 ESE ELO ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 25 NNE EVV 30 NNW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SW TXK 20 W LFK 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 45 W HUM 35 ENE HEZ 35 SSW UOX 45 NW MSL 50 SE BNA 40 SE TYS HKY 30 W DAN 20 S SHD 40 E EKN 30 NNE HGR 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CTB 55 NE MSO 55 ENE S80 25 SW LWS 35 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA... ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S-CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET EJECTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE-TILT INTO WRN ONTARIO. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM LOW CENTER INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATER TODAY. WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE HEATING OCCURS. MORNING MODELS CONSISTENT IN INCREASING BAND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY ELEVATED FROM ERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI...AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN CLEAR SLOT JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AND CAP WEAKEST /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2214/. SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT COULD START BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MN/ERN IA/NRN IL/WRN WI. ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE...PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI AND INTO NRN/WRN LOWER MI/NERN IL. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA... IVAN WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NWD TRACK MOVING JUST EAST OF FAR SERN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PROJECTED LANDFALL VERY NEAR MOBILE BAY/AL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND CG-LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY/APALACHICOLA...WHICH IS MOVING NWD AT 40-45 KT. THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY ROTATING AND SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE BY AROUND 17-18Z INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE VWP/S INDICATE 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SPREADS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM FAR SRN MS ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY FAR SWRN GA BY LATER TONIGHT. ...MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS... A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ERN IA INTO NERN/CENTRAL OK/NWRN TX BY 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF DEEP ASCENT EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 20:05:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 15:05:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409152007.i8FK70d31241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152002 SWODY1 SPC AC 151958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S MOB 40 E LUL 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG MGR 40 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ HTL GRR BEH SPI TBN 40 NW SGF OJC 20 NW MLI LSE MSP 35 WSW DLH DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CLE 25 NNE EVV 30 NNW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SW TXK 20 W LFK 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 35 WSW BVE JAN UOX 55 SE BNA AHN 45 S CAE CRE ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 35 W INK MKC 30 NW MLI 10 WSW LSE 20 SSE MSP 40 ENE RWF 30 ESE AXN 35 NNW BRD 30 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN/IA CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS LS REGION TOWARD NWRN ONT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM OVER E-CENTRAL MN -- WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SYSTEM ALOFT. SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS REMAINDER MN/IA/KS...AND SEWD OVER OK AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL MOVE INLAND INVOF MOB BAY BETWEEN 16/06Z-12Z...BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC. ...UPPER MIDWEST... REF WW 8245 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS REGARDING PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF WI. BOTH A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS -- ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO MO. VWP DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM MO RIVER NWD. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. CONVECTION THIS FAR S SHOULD BE TIED MORE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH SWWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. ...E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN... REF SPC WW 823 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM INFORMATION RELATED TO OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. IVAN HAS A LARGE WIND ENVELOPE...AND AS THIS SPREADS PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL AS WELL. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG OVER THIS AREA...VERY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEARS -- I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG -- WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 00:46:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 19:46:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409160047.i8G0lJd01380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160044 SWODY1 SPC AC 160039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S MOB 25 ESE MEI TCL BHM 10 ESE ANB 30 ENE LGC 25 ENE ABY 25 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BVE 40 NNW LUL 50 WSW CBM TUP 35 ESE MKL 25 SW BNA CHA AHN AGS 25 WNW CHS 35 SSW FLO 25 NW ILM 35 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE DAY JBR TXK 10 NE BWD SJT 40 S LBB AMA 30 SSW GAG END SZL MLI JVL MKE IMT 10 WNW IWD ELO 30 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... ...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ITS NWD TRACK TOWARD THE AL GULF COAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- NAMELY IN NE QUADRANT OF IVAN -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST PERIPHERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-500 MS/S2 AND 0-1 SHEAR OF 35 KTS OR GREATER...AS EVIDENT IN STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH IN 00Z TLH RAOB. REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST DETAILS ON TORNADO HAZARD. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING PORTION DECELERATES ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS. OVERALL DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED REMAINDER OF EVENING OWING TO MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY GLANCING BACKGROUND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH SWD EXTENT. THUS ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED REMAINDER OF PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ..GUYER/KERR.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 05:50:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 00:50:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409160551.i8G5pId20279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160548 SWODY1 SPC AC 160543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB MOB TCL HSV CHA AHN 65 ESE MCN VLD 35 ESE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE GPT 35 NW LUL 20 S GWO 30 N GLH 25 NE TXK 20 WSW TYR 20 ENE AUS 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 25 ENE HOB 40 WSW DHT 15 ENE AKO 25 SW MHN 30 ESE ANW 30 N GRI 25 SSE HSI 20 NE ICT 30 NNW BVO 20 WSW UMN 25 SE TBN BLV 40 NE LAF 55 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 25 SE GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA SHD ROA 35 SE PSK 15 E RDU 35 ESE RWI 10 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 10 N IWD 40 N EAU MSP 50 SSW AXN 30 N ABR 45 E BIS 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ISP ORH 20 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.... BELT OF STRONGER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WAS EVIDENT IN 16/00Z SOUNDING DATA...CURVING ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AS HURRICANE IVAN GRADUALLY MAKES LANDFALL AND MERGES INTO THIS MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A STEADY WEAKENING WILL ENSUE AS SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS TO TROPICAL SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG/EAST OF TRACK OF CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN RISK OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AFTER LANDFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE... WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MOST BUOYANT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. INSTABILITY...AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES...LIKELY WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE AFTER DARK...BUT PROBABILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE...AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... WHILE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA...ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TRAIL BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANTS OF IVAN... STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG FRONT...FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD...BEFORE FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION TAKES ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. ...PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/ PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER... TONIGHT...FORCING/ DESTABILIZATION ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 12:47:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 07:47:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409161248.i8GCmJd00748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161240 SWODY1 SPC AC 161235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PNS 60 NNE MOB 15 SSW MSL 40 SW BNA 20 WNW TYS 25 WSW HKY 40 SSE SPA 40 WNW JAX 60 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE GPT 35 NW LUL 20 S GWO 30 N GLH 25 NE TXK 20 WSW TYR 20 ENE AUS 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 25 ENE HOB 40 WSW DHT 15 ENE AKO 25 SW MHN 30 ESE ANW 30 N GRI 25 SSE HSI 20 NE ICT 30 NNW BVO 20 WSW UMN 25 SE TBN BLV 40 NE LAF 55 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 25 SE GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA SHD ROA 35 SE PSK 15 E RDU 35 ESE RWI 10 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 10 N IWD 40 N EAU MSP 50 SSW AXN 30 N ABR 45 E BIS 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ISP ORH 20 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO SRN APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH HURRICANE IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN OVERALL STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NNE AND FARTHER INLAND TODAY ACROSS AL...THE ASSOCIATED STRONG/LARGE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. AREA VADS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED 0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 M2/S2 SUPPORTING STORM ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS. ...OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TODAY INTO QUEBEC. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMITING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 16:31:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 11:31:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409161632.i8GGWCd20807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161628 SWODY1 SPC AC 161623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 35 S ANB 15 NW ANB 20 WSW RMG 35 NW AHN 25 W CAE 35 E AGS 55 NNE AYS 25 NE MGR ABY 20 SE CSG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CEW 20 W TOI 50 WNW BHM 35 S BNA 45 NNE TYS 40 WSW GSO 25 SW FAY 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK 10 S GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA SHD ROA 35 SE PSK 15 E RDU 35 ESE RWI 10 N HSE ...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 70 NNE MOB 45 WSW TCL 40 WNW MSL 25 WSW BNA 10 SW HOP 35 SSW PAH 30 W DYR TXK 20 WSW TYR 30 SW CLL 35 S VCT ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 WNW HOB 50 S DHT 35 WSW GLD 20 W IML 25 WSW BBW 15 WSW GRI 20 SSW SLN 25 N PNC 20 NW TUL 20 NNE FYV 40 SE TBN 15 SW SLO 25 NW MIE 35 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE INL 15 WSW HIB 20 ESE BRD 30 W STC 50 SSW AXN 25 WNW ABR 10 E BIS 75 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E-CENTRAL AL ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO PART OF W-CENTRAL SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SOUTHEAST... REFERENCE WW/S 828...829...830 AND LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CENTER OF IVAN APPEARS TO BE OVER DALLAS COUNTY AL AT 16Z MOVING NWD AT 15-20 KT. LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR EXTENDS EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AL INTO GA WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 WILL BE COMMON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATES WELL DEFINED E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN NC WSWWD INTO CENTRAL GA...SOUTH OF WHICH AN AXIS OF 80+F TEMPERATURES IS ENHANCING INSTABILITY. EXPECT A CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL TORNADOES INTO CENTRAL GA AND E-CENTRAL AL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WHERE GREATEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED. OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CELLS ROTATING AROUND IVAN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 19:50:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 14:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409161951.i8GJpld04309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161948 SWODY1 SPC AC 161943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCN 20 SSE ATL 30 SE RMG 25 ENE RMG 65 NW AHN 20 NNE AND 20 SSW CAE 55 NNE AYS 40 NE MGR 10 ENE ABY 25 WSW MCN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 S CEW 30 WSW AUO 40 SSE BHM 40 SW HSV 35 S BNA 40 NNE TYS 45 NNE CLT 25 SW FAY 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 30 WNW HOB 50 S DHT 35 ENE LAA 35 SW IML 30 NNW MCK 30 S EAR 20 SSW SLN 25 N PNC 20 NW TUL 20 NNE FYV 40 SE TBN 15 SW SLO 30 NNE IND 20 ENE TOL ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 S GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA 15 ESE CHO 55 SW RIC 45 E RWI 10 N HSE ...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 70 NNE MOB 45 WSW TCL 40 WNW MSL 25 WSW BNA 10 SW HOP 35 SSW PAH 30 W DYR TXK 20 WSW TYR 30 SW CLL 35 S VCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE INL 15 WSW HIB 20 ESE BRD 30 W STC 50 SSW AXN 25 WNW ABR 10 E BIS 75 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN GA AND ADJACENT WRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THE SOUTHEAST... IVAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM /PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS/ BUT A LARGE AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD PERSISTS AROUND THIS STORM. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF IVAN /NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL/ CONTINUES TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER A LARGE AREA SUGGESTS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL AND NERN GA EWD INTO SC. ATTM...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN GA. AS IVAN MOVES SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...EXPECT GREATEST TORNADO THREAT TO LIKEWISE SPREAD SLOWLY EWD / NEWD INTO SC. ..GOSS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 01:02:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 20:02:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409170103.i8H13Rd12823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170100 SWODY1 SPC AC 170055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E RMG 20 NNW RMG TYS 25 WNW HKY 30 WSW SOP 10 SE FLO 20 NNW SAV 40 SE MCN 20 NNW MCN 20 E ATL 15 E RMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 S TOI 25 WNW AUO 15 ENE BHM 25 SE BNA 40 SW LOZ 45 ENE LEX 20 WSW SDF 40 WSW BMG HUF MIE 35 W CLE 25 SW BUF 50 NNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 25 WSW EFK MPV PSF POU ABE BWI 30 SE NHK 40 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL HIB MSP MCW SUX 60 NNE BUB 9V9 PIR BIS 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BLI 10 ENE SEA 20 NNW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CVS 40 SSW DHT 55 E LAA 45 N GCK 35 W RSL 25 NNE P28 25 W CSM 10 W LTS 20 WSW SPS 30 NW MWL 35 S ABI 40 SSE MAF 30 ENE CNM 30 SW CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 60 N TUS 35 NNW SAD 10 NNW SVC 30 SSW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES... REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT ...FROM THE BIRMINGHAM AL AREA TO THE VICINITY OF CHATTANOOGA TN. THOUGH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES. DESPITE STABILIZING INFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK BUOYANCY IN BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY MAY BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND AHEAD OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANTS OF IVAN...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ALONG FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRONGER LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17/06Z...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...PLAINS... WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY LIMITED TO VICINITY OF CREST OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIFTING MOIST MID-LEVEL PARCELS TO THEIR LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSED INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES/OLYMPICS MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVELS COOL OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 05:47:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 00:47:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409170548.i8H5mNd24916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170546 SWODY1 SPC AC 170541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TRI 20 SW PSK LYH 65 ENE DAN RDU 35 S CLT 30 S SPA 40 NNW AND 25 SE TYS 35 NE TYS TRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 50 S DLH 30 E RST 10 W IRK 35 WNW SGF 10 W MKO 40 ENE DAL 55 NNE CLL 20 SSE BPT ...CONT... 10 W ELP 40 WNW CVS 40 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD 50 NE ANW 15 NW BKX 45 WNW AXN 65 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 30 W BTM 25 N BOI 25 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 25 NNE CEW 20 ENE MGM 35 NNW BHM 50 WSW BNA 35 SW SDF 25 SSE CAK 35 WSW GFL 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 35 ENE TRM 15 SW EED 30 SSE IGM 55 WSW SOW 30 NE SAD 35 SSW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... IVAN HAS MERGED INTO BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND STEADY SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF EASTERN CANADIAN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. NORTHERN SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES...WITHIN WHICH MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY 18/12Z...A LARGE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ALONG THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...WITH A SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE LOWER U.S. PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH REGARD RATE OF DECAY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...AS WELL AS EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY LATE AFTERNOON...FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON...AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CAPE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF FRONTAL ZONE. ETA PROBABLY WEAKENS REMAINS OF IVAN TOO QUICKLY... AND PRESENCE OF DEEP SURFACE LOW/SIGNIFICANT AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF TORNADOES IN TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE IN IMMEDIATE LEE OF APPALACHIANS...FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...BETTER HEATING/SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. ...PLAINS... WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC BROADER SCALE FLOW...MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL WARMING/WEAK SUBSIDENCE LIKELY WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR WEAK THERMAL LOW/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT FORCING ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ...NORTHWEST STATES... SCATTERED...MOSTLY WEAK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE... PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... MOISTURE RETURN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING... CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 12:52:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 07:52:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409171253.i8HCrqd09939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171251 SWODY1 SPC AC 171246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TRI 20 ESE PSK CHO RIC 10 SSW GSB 35 S FLO CAE SPA 35 WNW HKY 40 E TRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 50 S DLH 30 E RST 10 W IRK 35 WNW SGF 10 W MKO 40 ENE DAL 55 NNE CLL 20 SSE BPT ...CONT... 10 W ELP 40 WNW CVS 40 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD 50 NE ANW 15 NW BKX 45 WNW AXN 65 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 30 W BTM 25 N BOI 25 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 35 ENE TRM 15 SW EED 30 SSE IGM 55 WSW SOW 30 NE SAD 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 25 NNE CEW 20 ENE MGM 35 NNW BHM 50 WSW BNA 35 SW SDF 25 SSE CAK 35 WSW GFL 15 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SC/VA/NC... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FROM PACIFIC NW TO NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE UPPER RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER SRN PLAINS. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OVER WA/ORE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW-NE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND -- SHOULD PIVOT ASHORE THIS EVENING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18/00Z-06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC AND UPPER AIR REMAINS OF TC IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER SRN APPALACHIANS REGION. CENTER OF THIS CYCLONE SHOULD FINISH LINKING WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE AND MOVE TO S-CENTRAL VA OR N-CENTRAL NC BY END OF PERIOD...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS RETREATING NWD ACROSS OK AND SW KS AS SUBTLE WARM FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ALSO IS ACCOMPANIED BY PRONOUNCED SFC MOIST AXIS...WITH DEW POINTS LOW 60S TO LOW 70S F FROM SWRN KS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO N-CENTRAL TX. ...NC/VA/SC... VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF IVAN. 0-1 KM SRH SHOULD REMAIN IN 150-300 J/KG RANGE...AS ISALLOBARIC FORCING ENE-ESE OF SFC LOW MAINTAINS SOME BACKING OF FLOW...HELPING TO ENHANCE SHEAR ESPECIALLY OVER PIEDMONT AREA AND WRN PORTIONS COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER E...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITH DISTANCE FROM CYCLONE CENTER. ALSO...KINEMATIC SUPPORT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT OVER GA AND NRN FL AS VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REDUCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE. TORNADO THREAT TENDENCY SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL TODAY BECAUSE OF THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL MODULATE DIURNAL INCREASE IN BUOYANCY ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1200-1700 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SFC INSOLATION AND DEW POINTS 70S F OVERCOMING WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN THROUGH EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS RESULT OF SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH IVAN CIRCULATION. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... NRN KS ONGOING/ELEVATED TSTMS SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE AND MARGINAL BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS UNTIL LLJ WEAKENS WITH DIMINISHED VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW AND TROUGH OVER PORTIONS WRN KS...PERHAPS NW OK ALSO...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING...HOWEVER HEATING TO NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND LIFT NEAR TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES BENEATH 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WITH WEAK TO NEGATIVE 0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS DIABATIC COOLING ELIMINATES SBCAPE. ..EDWARDS/BANACOS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 15:56:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 10:56:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409171557.i8HFvId16847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171554 SWODY1 SPC AC 171549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ILM 15 N FLO 40 WSW SOP 15 W GSO 35 SE PSK 10 S LYH 40 SSE CHO 15 N RIC 40 NNW ORF 10 SSW ORF 15 SW EWN 35 W ILM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CHS 35 ENE CAE 20 ESE SPA 35 WNW HKY 25 S BLF 35 NE SSU 15 ESE MRB 20 NE BWI 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 SSE SPA 20 ENE TYS 40 WNW HTS 25 WNW PIT 30 SE UCA 10 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 30 NNE SUN 75 NNW LOL 10 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CMX 50 WSW IWD 30 W DLH 50 W HIB 10 ENE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SSE DAG 10 WSW LAS 55 N IGM 40 ESE SOW 30 SSE ONM 55 WSW TCC 15 NNE DHT 35 SSW MCK 20 N BUB 15 WSW BKX 30 ESE RWF 30 S RST 15 N COU 25 W HRO 35 SSW PGO 20 W GGG 10 W GLS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC AND SRN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NC INTO THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE... ...NERN NC ACROSS NC INTO VA... SITUATION BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA BY TONIGHT. EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE WITH 50-60 KT SLY H5 WINDS /40-50 KT AT H85/ OVERSPREADING ESELY SFC WINDS AND A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTANT OBSERVED AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE LARGE AND YIELD SR-HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION MOVING INTO ERN SC/CENTRAL NC/SWRN VA. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF ENHANCED ASCENT...CLEARING/THINNING OVERCAST IS SUPPORTING MODEST HEATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S FROM ERN SC INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SRN VA WITH FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NET RESULT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WELL INTO THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NC/NERN SC NORTHEASTWARD. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR AND MORE MARGINAL NWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA ...PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MID 70F DEW POINTS AND ENHANCED SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES MAY SPREAD INTO THIS AREA AS WELL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WITHIN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE A RELATIVELY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...THROUGH THE MID MORNING OVER ERN KS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO WEAKENING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPPING LIKELY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO FAR ERN KS/WRN MO AFTER 06Z. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 19:59:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 14:59:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409172000.i8HK0Pd17526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171958 SWODY1 SPC AC 171953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ILM 30 NE FLO RDU 15 NE DAN 25 WNW SHD 50 NNE SHD 30 SSE MRB 15 NW NHK 45 S NHK ORF EWN 25 WNW ILM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CRE 30 N CHS 20 NNW FLO 40 ESE CLT 15 NW PSK 10 NW EKN 25 S AOO 35 E CXY 10 ESE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 SSE SPA 20 ENE TYS 40 WNW HTS 25 WNW PIT 30 SE UCA 10 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 30 NNE SUN 75 NNW LOL 10 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 ENE PHX 35 NNW SOW 35 ESE ONM 40 SSE LVS 20 WSW RTN 20 SSE LHX 30 NNW RSL 40 N GRI FSD 25 N FRM 30 S RST 25 N COU 10 ENE UMN 20 SSW BVO P28 40 S EHA 35 ESE CVS 20 S INK 75 S MRF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN VA...MUCH OF ERN NC...AND PARTS OF SRN MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN PA / SRN NJ / ERN WV SWD INTO NERN NC... ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN HALF OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. BROKEN N-S LINE OF STORMS EXISTS FROM ERN SC NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA...WHILE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WITH BACKED SURFACE WIND FIELD ALONG AND E OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE BENEATH STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING FLOW THROUGH 700 MB...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...DAYTIME HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS A SLOW DECREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...ENHANCED THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- LIKELY WELL INTO THIS EVENING. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AS WELL AS WRN PORTIONS OF MO...IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WHEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 800 MB MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 00:59:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 19:59:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409180100.i8I10ad10131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180056 SWODY1 SPC AC 180051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ILM 20 E RWI RIC 40 E CHO 45 NE CHO 10 SW MRB 25 N HGR CXY 20 SW ABE 10 NNW PHL 30 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LNK OMA 10 ESE LWD 45 S IRK 25 S SZL CNU 20 NE ICT 15 WSW SLN LNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS GSB 55 SW RIC 10 SE SHD 35 W SHD MGW IPT PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PSX 30 SW AUS 25 NNE ABI 25 NNW SPS 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL LFK 10 E LFT 20 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 10 ESE DDC 10 ENE HLC EAR MHE HON 10 NE ATY MSP 30 W LSE 15 ENE DBQ 35 W SPI 15 N SGF 10 SE BVO END GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 15 NW DAG 55 NNW DRA 30 NW SGU GCN GUP ABQ 65 W CVS CNM 70 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 10 S S80 75 E 4LW 10 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SRQ 15 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.... ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES IN AND AROUND THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. HOWEVER...DIURNAL COOLING OF TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ALREADY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...EAST OF WEAKENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN. THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...IN WAKE OF TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INHIBITION IS WEAK DUE TO COOLER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE TO THAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS. AND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR/ABOVE 90F...IT MAY STILL BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/CONVECTION DIMINISHES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI VALLEY... MODELS SUGGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING/INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO OVERCOME CAP...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIDED BY DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET AXES...A SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BASED ABOVE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. PRIMARILY DUE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ARE PROGGED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 18/09-12Z. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOW SPREADING INTO THE OLYMPICS/ CASCADES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED/ BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. ...FLORIDA... WITH LOSS OF HEATING...SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 18/06Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ..KERR.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 05:48:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 00:48:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409180549.i8I5nkd02023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180547 SWODY1 SPC AC 180542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE HVR 45 NNE BIL 50 ESE WEY 35 S LND 30 NE CAG 20 W ASE 50 NE DRO 40 W TAD 35 NW CAO 40 ENE ROW 60 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 25 NNW JCT 30 SSW FTW 65 WNW LFK 25 NE HOU GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 30 NE RAL 30 N DAG 60 S EKO 30 SSE BYI 60 NE BOI 65 WSW BNO 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EWN 10 ENE GSB 45 SE LYH 25 WNW BWI 25 SE AVP BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 15 SE HIB 35 ESE BJI 55 SW DVL 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EMP 30 W BIE OFK 15 NW SUX 25 S FRM 25 ESE MSP 55 NE EAU 35 E AUW 30 SW PIA 40 SSW STL 35 WNW UNO 35 S UMN 20 SSW CNU 20 NNW EMP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS INDICATING AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF SHARPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD/SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST...MEAN TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR/SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AREAS...AND WEAKENING/ELONGATING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN...WILL STILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F EAST OF THESE FEATURES...AND SHOULD BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. FRONTAL ZONE AND SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PLAINS... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LIKELY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...AS NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND BACKS IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM UPPER FLOW PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. IS UNCERTAIN... PRIMARILY DUE TO STRENGTHENING INHIBITION BENEATH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BE CONFLUENT BAND NEAR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND...IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. WHILE LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING...SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS NOW LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO CREST OF UPPER RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...MOIST AND MUCH MORE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOURS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...WESTERN STATES... INFLUX OF LOWER LATITUDE MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND GREAT BASIN...AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY REDUCE SURFACE HEATING AND LIMIT BROADER SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ON WESTERN GRADIENT OF RETURNING MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN EASTWARD INTO THIS AREA DURING THE DAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 13:02:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 08:02:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409181303.i8ID3Ed22185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181300 SWODY1 SPC AC 181255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 20 E RAL 20 NNE LAX 10 S PMD 20 WSW DAG 30 N DAG 60 S EKO 30 SSE BYI 60 NE BOI 65 WSW BNO 60 NW UKI ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 55 NE BIL 25 SSW COD 35 S LND 30 NE CAG ASE 45 ESE GUC 40 W TAD 15 SSE TAD 40 E RTN 45 WSW CAO 30 E LVS 65 NE 4CR 10 SW ROW CNM 55 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 40 W LBB 40 E DHT 55 WSW GAG 50 W CSM 40 SSE CDS 20 NNE SEP 55 NNE CLL 25 NE HOU GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL LNK 25 ESE MSP 55 NE EAU 35 E AUW 30 SW PIA 40 SSW STL 35 WNW UNO 35 S UMN 30 NNW BVO RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL NHK DCA 25 WNW BWI ALB PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES/SHIFT INLAND OVER PACIFIC NW AND DEEP-LAYER REMAINS OF IVAN MOVE EWD OFF MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER COASTAL REGIONS. IN BETWEEN...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN GULF NWD ACROSS MO TO MN. SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL INCLUDE WARM FRONT NOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH IS STALLING...AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH SFC CYCLONE. MEANWHILE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WRN/SRN NEB...ERN/NRN KS AND WRN/SRN MO. ...MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND... NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND NJ FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STABILIZES AIR MASS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER 12Z OKX RAOB...WITH 0-1 KM SHEARS 25-30 KT AND SRH AROUND 200 J/KG THROUGH SAME LAYER. EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE FORCING...HOWEVER...TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF DISCRETE TSTMS...AND SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER MOST OR ALL THE FAVORABLE AIR MASS MOVES OFFSHORE. MARGINAL TORNADO AND CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN FOR A SHORT TIME. ...MO/KS... ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY STILL PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS EPISODICALLY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SYSTEM-RELATIVE FLOW WEAKENS...ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATICALLY DRIVEN COUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM AND RELATIVELY HIGH RH NEAR BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING COMPLEX...AND ANY SUCH CONVECTION ALSO MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER...PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME FRAME WILL BE LOW AND VERY CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING. ...GREAT BASIN/NRN AZ... CONTINUED NWD/NNEWD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE TODAY...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORIGINS IN FORMER HURRICANE JAVIER. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED ON WESTERN GRADIENT OF RETURNING MOISTURE...AMIDST GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY PRODUCE WINDS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 16:18:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 11:18:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409181619.i8IGJMd28697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181616 SWODY1 SPC AC 181611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 65 NE BIL 30 NW WRL 40 NE RWL 20 NNE LAR 25 NW COS 20 E RTN 50 NE 4CR 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 NNE RAL 55 ESE U31 15 W EKO 55 NNE WMC 25 NE RBL 50 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DRT 35 ENE BGS 60 SSE CDS 35 NNE MWL 10 SSE TYR 35 SE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE HSI 45 ENE SUX 10 SSE STC 40 WSW IWD 30 ENE AUW 20 N MMO 15 NNE STL 50 ESE TBN 20 SSW UMN 15 WSW EMP 40 ESE HSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S WAL 25 SSE BWI 15 ENE ABE 30 S RUT 10 S PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN LONG ISLAND/EXTREME SERN NEW ENGLAND... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IS LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW IS ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND EXTREME SERN MA. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY SAGGING SEWD AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE AS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVE NWD FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EWD...WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY 00Z AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ...SWRN UT INTO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AREA... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATE MOISTURE PLUME FROM JAVIER IS SPREADING NWD OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...WITHIN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SERN CA/WRN AZ ACROSS SERN NV INTO UT WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIMITED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ETA/GFS AND SREF OUTPUT ALL INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SERN CA AND WRN AZ...SPREADING NWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN NV/SWRN UT AND NRN AZ TONIGHT AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... CURRENT THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM OVER MO/ERN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A CAP WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAP AFTER 06Z FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWD INTO ERN IA/NWRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTING THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW LATE PERIOD STORMS. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 19:42:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 14:42:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409181943.i8IJhSd03646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181941 SWODY1 SPC AC 181936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W YUM 35 NNW BLH 10 SSW SGU 25 SSW BCE 20 ENE PGA 30 NNW SAD 10 SSW DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 30 NNE RAL 55 S ELY 15 NW TPH 25 S NFL 20 NW BAM 55 NNE WMC 25 NE RBL 50 SSW EKA ...CONT... 50 N GGW 65 NE BIL 30 NW WRL 40 NE RWL 20 NNE LAR 25 NW COS 20 E RTN 50 NE 4CR 35 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DRT 35 ENE BGS 60 SSE CDS 35 NNE MWL 10 SSE TYR 35 SE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W CNK 45 ENE SUX 10 SSE STC 40 WSW IWD 30 E RHI 40 W CGX 35 NE ALN 20 SW UNO 30 NNW FSM 40 SSW ICT 45 W CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AZ... ...SWRN CONUS... RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS SRN AND WRN AZ AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. FAIRLY LARGE / VIGOROUS STORM HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MOJAVE COUNTY...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ ATTM. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 2246. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE UVV INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO EXIST FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH SWLY / SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING FROM W-E ACROSS THE DESERT SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WIND FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND INTO FAR SRN US FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION -- AND PERHAPS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THIS REGION AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH...ALL MODELS HINT AT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA / SERN MN / WRN WI / NWRN IL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL. ..GOSS.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 00:53:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 19:53:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409190054.i8J0sYd04524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190053 SWODY1 SPC AC 190048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ SGU 40 SSE SLC 35 N RKS 25 S CPR 55 N CYS 45 NNE LHX ROW 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SUX 45 SW AXN 50 E FAR 45 ENE BJI 50 WSW IWD 20 NW RFD SPI 35 NW TBN 30 SSE OJC 40 S OMA 30 NNE SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 65 E LWT 45 NW COD 15 WNW 27U 70 E BKE 15 SSE LMT 30 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 30 NW BWD 40 N MWL 50 NNW FTW DAL 25 SSW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/SRN CA... DAYTIME HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW FROM STORMS HAS MOSTLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GREATLY REDUCED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SRN CA AND WRN AZ WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN THIS AREA...BUT ANY STORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL 03-04Z...THUS A 5% WIND PROBABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ALTHOUGH 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA...WARM ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. THE NEGATIVE FOR SEVERE IS THE SHEAR ABOVE 700 MB WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WRN STATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 12:55:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 07:55:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409191256.i8JCu7d06802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191253 SWODY1 SPC AC 191248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GUP 80 SE PGA 25 WSW U17 20 WNW 4HV 20 ESE PUC 40 SSE VEL 40 NE GJT 25 WSW GUC 40 ESE DRO 40 W 4SL 25 NW GUP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 65 NNW 3TH 40 N 3TH 60 NNE 3DU 25 S GTF 35 WNW LWT 50 N LWT 65 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE IPL 40 NW EED 55 SW P38 60 ESE U31 30 E LOL 35 E SVE 50 WNW SVE 30 W RBL 30 NNW UKI 40 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 35 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW ANJ 15 N GRB 20 W JVL 25 WSW UIN 30 S IRK 25 NE LWD 20 NNW DSM 35 ESE MKT 20 SW MSP 30 N MKT 25 NW FRM 20 NE LNK 20 NE HUT 35 WSW END 25 NNW LTS 25 S CDS 50 SE LBB 65 SW SJT 50 NNE DRT 45 WSW HDO LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE AZ...NW NM...ERN UT AND WRN CO... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CREATING A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME TODAY. STILL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY WILL HELP MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF AZ. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 65 TO 75 KT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM MOTION AROUND 40 KT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE MOVES NEWD ACROSS SE UT...SW CO...NE AZ AND NW NM. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SWRN AZ WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 C/KM. MID-LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN ACROSS NRN AZ...UT AND WRN CO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AND SFC TEMPS WARM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE LARGE UPPER-TROUGH...MOVES NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ...DAKOTAS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE HELD BACK TIL THIS EVENING. THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EWD TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL JET OF 60 KT SWINGING EWD AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION MOST LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR RAPID CITY AND ACROSS WCNTRL SD. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BASES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO ND BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL BUT DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 16:39:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 11:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409191639.i8JGdud09201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191637 SWODY1 SPC AC 191632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SGU 15 NW MLF 15 NNE DPG 15 NW OGD EVW 15 W VEL 10 SE CNY 25 WNW 4BL 20 SSW U17 45 WNW PGA 15 ENE SGU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 40 WNW PRC 15 W SGU 35 NW P38 40 NNE BIH MER 15 SSW SFO ...CONT... 45 NE 63S 15 NW PUW 25 ENE S80 35 WNW LWT 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 20 W ANJ 25 SSW MTW 20 SSE LNR 20 NW RST 15 SE SUX 35 NW P28 15 SSE CDS 35 NNE SJT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 40 WNW PBI 20 WNW VRB 15 NE ORL 40 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF UT... ...UT/WRN CO/NRN AZ AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS A JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS UT TODAY WITH PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS UT TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE...ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF JAVIER...IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FROM AZ NWD INTO UT/WRN CO/WY. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WITHIN THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF WRN UT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND IT IS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT LOCAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...WHICH SUGGESTS A HIGHER CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF UT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT ATTM FROM SERN ID INTO NWRN UT...AND WE WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR POSSIBLE SWD EXTENSION INTO SWRN UT. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH INTO AZ...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE BUT MORE LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SWRN AZ WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AZ. ...DAKOTAS... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A CAP WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING BY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PREDICT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LAPSE RATES WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG) LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 19:54:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 14:54:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409191955.i8JJtgd07279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191954 SWODY1 SPC AC 191949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELO 40 SSW STC 15 SE SUX 35 NW P28 15 SE CDS 50 NNE JCT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE CRP ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 40 WNW PRC 25 E SGU 25 E ELY 45 SSW NFL 10 SSE SCK 40 S UKI ...CONT... 75 NW FCA 25 W S06 20 E S80 30 NNE LWT 70 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY 55 E FMY 20 WNW VRB 25 E ORL 15 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UT / SWRN WY... STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING -- ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET -- CONTINUES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS UT INTO WRN WY ATTM...WHERE MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. MEANWHILE...DRYING EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN AZ / SRN AND CENTRAL UT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY / ORGANIZATION ACROSS UT / AZ DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WITH DRYING / SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL / NERN UT SWD. ...ND / NRN SD... ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE -- AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS -- THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ATTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF WRN U.S. JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 00:50:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 19:50:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409200051.i8K0p5d07938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200048 SWODY1 SPC AC 200043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 40 E ABR ANW 30 NE AIA 25 NW CDR 25 SSW REJ 15 NNW Y22 30 SE P24 60 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 15 SSE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN PRC 25 W 4BL U28 40 SSE SLC 35 SSW ENV 60 WNW ELY TPH FAT 40 ENE MRY 20 NNW UKI 35 ENE MFR 50 SSW RDM RDM PDT 40 ENE LWS 50 SW 3DU 20 ESE BTM 15 E BZN 15 NNE BIL 10 SE MLS 35 SSE SDY 75 NW MOT ...CONT... 35 W INL 45 S BJI BKX GRI 35 S RSL 25 ESE GAG SJT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...ND/SD... HIGHER BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN SWRN SD AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND INTO ND OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WY MOVES NEWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MUCAPES RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT MORE IMPRESSIVE ARE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AS LOW AS 1 KM AGL. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND SOME OF THE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SEVERE GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT A 15% WIND PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...CENTRAL CA... DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DIURNAL HEATING...STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND VORTICITY MAX IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LIFT/MOISTURE/AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK CAPE AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...UT/WRN WY... DESPITE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS TOO STRONG TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. APPEARS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IS OVER...SO 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE DROPPED. ..IMY.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 13:10:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 08:10:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409201311.i8KDBRd05259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201257 SWODY1 SPC AC 201252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLD 35 NW GLD 40 E SNY 60 E CDR 40 SE PHP 45 S PIR 30 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 10 SE BBW 15 WSW HLC 60 SW HLC 35 S GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 50 SW ROW 20 S TAD 10 N LIC 35 WSW AKO 35 ENE DEN 15 W DEN 15 SSE ASE 25 NE DRO 20 NNW FMN 30 WSW CEZ 30 ENE U17 15 ENE BCE 20 N SGU 65 N DRA 35 SSW TPH 65 S NFL 20 ESE RNO 25 ESE 4LW 15 SSW PDT 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNE FCA 25 WSW HLN 30 S HLN 30 NNE BZN 65 W MLS 45 NW REJ 30 NE Y22 50 E P24 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 80 NW CMX 30 NW RST 55 WSW DSM 30 SW FNB 15 SW SLN 40 SE GAG 45 SSW LTS 45 W ABI 50 W SJT 70 WSW SJT 45 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 40 NW ALI NIR 15 S VCT 20 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CTY 40 S AYS 30 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL NEB...FAR SRN SD...FAR NW KS AND FAR NE CO... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN PART OF SRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN SD WILL ORGANIZE AND DROP SWD INTO NWRN NEB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPLY MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WRN CO WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NEB AND WRN KS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPE WHICH SHOULD REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY 21Z WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. INITIATION SHOULD FIRST OCCUR ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR RAPID CITY WITH CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING SWD INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ESEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. THE SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT AND DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM...WILL SPREAD OUT INTO WRN NEB AND FAR WRN KS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...FAVORING AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB AND WRN KS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 10.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE FASTER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ...FL... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS JUST OFF THE ERN COAST OF FL WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE MOIST AXIS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 16:31:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 11:31:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409201631.i8KGVsd08910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201628 SWODY1 SPC AC 201623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SNY SNY 15 NE BFF 30 WNW PIR 15 NNE PIR 10 W 9V9 20 WNW BBW 20 SSE LBF 30 ENE IML 30 SSE SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 20 SE HLN 65 W MLS 45 NW REJ 30 NE Y22 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 45 SSW RSL 40 SSW LTS 65 SE MAF 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 45 SW CVS 40 E TAD 35 SSW LIC 25 NNW COS 15 SSE ASE 25 NE DRO 20 NNW FMN 30 ENE U17 20 N SGU 35 SSW TPH 20 ESE RNO 25 ESE 4LW 35 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LRD 20 WNW ALI 10 SSE VCT 20 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE NEWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN TROUGH AND AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS STATES. IN PARTICULAR...ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM WY/WRN CO INTO THE SD/NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN STRONG-SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTH OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH OTHER PARAMETERS WILL AID IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL DECREASING WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...NEB/SD... A SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG LINE FROM MBG SWWD TO NEAR CDR LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SEEN SOMEWHAT RETARDED DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR...RECENT TRENDS IN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL DRYSLOT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO NOT IMPROVE GREATLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z DNR SOUNDING. WEAKER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY WELL ENTRENCHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /16 DEG C 850 MB DEWPT AT LBF THIS MORNING/...TO SUPPORT MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE FRONT OVER SD IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE MID LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BE GREATEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SWWD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WRN NB AND EVENTUALLY FAR NERN CO SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SWD INTO NWRN KS WILL LIMIT SVR COVERAGE INTO THIS AREA. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SEWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING A GREATER THREAT WITH TIME. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD TOWARDS ERN SD/CENTRAL NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SVR THREAT...DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM NWRN KS/ECENTRAL CO INTO WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG / AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... DESPITE MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR PROFILES. ...FL... EARLY CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER FL APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AS SYNOPTIC SCALE NLY FLOW AROUND LOW CENTER OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WILL LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 19:38:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 14:38:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409201939.i8KJdKd14752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201934 SWODY1 SPC AC 201929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW FAR 40 S 9V9 10 NE IML 50 SW IML 15 SSE AKO 30 NW AKO 25 NE AIA 35 W PIR 50 ESE BIS 30 WSW JMS 40 WSW FAR 65 SSW FAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 25 SSW MSP 25 WNW OMA 25 SSW EAR 40 S HLC 10 W DDC 20 NNE GAG 30 SSW LTS 55 SSE MAF 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP ALM ROW 25 NE TCC 25 SE PUB 25 NNE COS 35 E ASE 25 E MTJ 10 W 4BL 20 SW BCE 25 SSW P38 50 SE TPH 55 NW BIH 25 WNW TVL 65 NNE SVE BNO 35 NE BKE 90 NW FCA ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 30 NNW HLN 35 E 3HT 45 ENE SHR 15 NE 81V 45 E REJ 35 NNE Y22 55 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...NERN CO/WRN NEB/SD/SERN ND... SHARP FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED WITH DEEP LAYER AND STRONG SSWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOIST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS FROM NERN CO INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONGEST MASS INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM NCNTRL NEB NNEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SLOW MOVING LINEAR MCS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTENSIFIES COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE UNDERCUT BY SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. LATEST MLCAPE WAS ON THE ORDER OF 250-600 J/KG AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS... DEGREE OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS INTO THE EVENING. ...ERN CO/WRN KS... MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAKER FORCING ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...MARGINAL SHEAR AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...OR PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL REPORT OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 00:45:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 19:45:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409210045.i8L0jld27832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210043 SWODY1 SPC AC 210038 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 10 S CNM 20 SSW CVS 10 N CAO 40 N LHX 25 SSW COS 15 NW ALS 40 ESE DRO 65 S 4BL 50 NNW GCN 25 NW LAS 15 NW DAG 20 NNE BFL 15 WNW FAT 40 WNW U31 50 SW OWY BOI 75 NW FCA ...CONT... 60 ENE CTB 45 NNE BZN 45 SW BIL 30 S SHR 35 SSE GCC 20 NNE RAP 35 SW BIS 70 NNW DVL ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 25 SSW MSP 25 WNW OMA 25 SSW EAR 40 S HLC 10 W DDC 30 WNW GAG 35 SSW CDS 55 SSE MAF 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 ESE EEN BDL 35 NNW POU 40 SE UCA 20 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS TO ERN SD... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN NV/ERN CA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WITHIN BASE OF POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. DOWNSTREAM SSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS/MN...RESULTING IN SLOW E AND S MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MN AND SD/NEB. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NERN CO TO NEB AND ERN SD AS MOIST...ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES PER STRENGTHENING CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ AT 40-50 KT. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL...MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 05:25:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 00:25:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409210526.i8L5Qed04532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210525 SWODY1 SPC AC 210519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 25 SSW ANW 35 NNE ATY 25 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NW IWD 40 WSW EAU 35 NNW DSM FNB 25 NW END 25 SW LTS 40 ENE BGS 70 WSW SJT 35 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA/GFS AGREE THAT A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND ROCKIES. IN FACT...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE ERN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE REST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT LIES BENEATH SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CO AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD TO ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SRN/ERN NM TO CENTRAL KS... A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WEST TX/FAR ERN NM NEWD...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO KS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM/ WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT THE AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/. GIVEN THAT THIS REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 12:56:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 07:56:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409211256.i8LCuqd31298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211254 SWODY1 SPC AC 211249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N IWD 45 NNE RST 30 SSE FOD FNB 10 N END 25 S LTS 40 WSW SJT 45 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 25 SSW ANW 35 NNE ATY 10 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 40 S ALI NIR 10 NNW VCT 20 WSW HOU 30 SSW BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NEB AND ERN CO WILL MOVE SWD TODAY REACHING FAR SE NEB AND WCNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LONG LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SSWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND WRN OK. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD TODAY...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S F IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S F...YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS WAIT TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS A LATER STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WITH A LINE ORGANIZING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL PROBABLY BE NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL WINDS PARALLELING THE BOUNDARY. A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS CELLS INITIATE AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 15:38:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 10:38:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409211539.i8LFd4d16777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211536 SWODY1 SPC AC 211531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CMX 45 WSW RHI 15 ENE DSM 30 ENE STJ 25 ENE END 25 WNW SPS 35 ESE SJT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 10 NE ANW 35 NNE ATY 10 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 45 ESE COT 60 W HOU 25 NE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... OVERALL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SSEWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TAIL END OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG HEATING AND PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIKELY AID IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN NM. UPSLOPE...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DESPITE MIXING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY / MLCAPES FROM 500-1500 J/KG /. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND FROM STRONGER CELLS. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY MOVE NEWD OVER COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...UT/CO/NRN NM... POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY AND ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWBURSTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 19:57:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 14:57:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409211958.i8LJw3d29893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211954 SWODY1 SPC AC 211949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FHU 55 NE SAD 45 W ONM 25 SSW 4SL 20 WSW FMN 65 NNE INW 40 NE GCN 25 ENE CDC 20 SE DPG 25 SSW EVW 40 WNW CAG 10 W 4FC 35 SW AKO 25 NNW IML 15 ENE 9V9 25 E ATY 35 W DLH 30 SW IWD 35 NW LSE 10 W MCW 40 NNW FNB 25 E SLN 35 SE GAG 70 NE BGS 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 WNW MFE 30 SSE SAT 15 WSW CLL 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 25 N PIE 15 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NM AND WEST TX... STRONG HEATING OF MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST TX NWD INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SIMILAR DCAPE VALUES...A COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN INITIATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. EXPECT WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE INVOF COLD FRONT/THERMAL TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN NM WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ABOUT 25KT PER LATEST TCU PROFILER DATA...SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS REMAINING RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. WHILE A COUPLE OF SEVERE REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE...STORM COVERAGE AND EVENT DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN KS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE RETREATING GRADUALLY NWD/WWD FROM EXTREME SERN CO ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND MIXING OCCUR IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS NWD ACROSS WRN KS. A PREFRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE WERE EVIDENT OVER WRN KS ON LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AS TSTMS INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN/WRN KS MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED/MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH SOME CHANCE OF A COUPLE HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT. ...S FL... ACARS AND VWP DATA WERE INDICATING WIND DIRECTION VEERS STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT ACROSS S FL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONGER FLOW REQUIRED FOR GREATER SHEAR/HELICITY...AND A SUPERCELL THREAT...WAS SITUATED OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING WERE MARGINAL. WHILE A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY ACQUIRE ROTATION WITHIN A THE SMALL AREA WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COINCIDE...TORNADO PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 01:02:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 20:02:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409220102.i8M12od15753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220100 SWODY1 SPC AC 220055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PIE 15 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 30 E TCS 35 S ABQ 20 SSE 4SL 40 NNE GUP 65 NNE INW 40 NE GCN 35 NNE BCE 55 WNW PUC 30 W RKS 40 NW LAR DEN 15 SE LIC 25 NNW IML 35 S 9V9 20 NNW BKX 40 SE AXN 25 NNW MSP 20 NW RST 25 ENE FOD 25 E SLN 30 SSE GAG 65 NNE BGS DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MFE 35 WNW NIR 50 SSW CLL 25 NE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO WRN KS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT. EWD MOVEMENT IS BEING LIMITED BY BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE UPPER FLOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY OR EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS ERN NEB TO SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WNWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. A SURFACE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS /JUST S OF HLC/...WHILE A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT AND A WAA PROFILE EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. MORE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINTAINING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THAT STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AT BEST. ..PETERS.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 12:52:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 07:52:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221253.i8MCrKd16503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221250 SWODY1 SPC AC 221245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CNM 15 NNW GDP 50 NNW GDP 45 W ROW 65 NE 4CR 40 WNW TCC 20 N TCC 35 ENE TCC 50 NE CVS 40 ESE CVS 30 NNE HOB 30 NNW INK 30 S CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 30 NNW ALM 45 SSE SAF 30 WNW LVS 55 N SAF 35 ESE FMN 40 WSW CEZ 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 ENE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 45 NNW EAU 35 WNW OTM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 55 W ABI 40 WSW SJT 60 WSW JCT 35 SSE JCT 25 S AUS 30 NNW HOU 30 NE BPT 10 S BTR 10 SSW MOB 10 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM...W TX... ...ERN NM/W TX... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INVERTED LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND TEMPS IN THE 80S F THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS EWD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO ERN NM AND FAR W TX...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE DEEP SHEAR INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY STEEP AROUND PEAK HEATING. A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE TX/NM STATE-LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 16:22:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 11:22:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221622.i8MGMfd27716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221617 SWODY1 SPC AC 221616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1116 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TESTING. PLEASE DISREGARD. THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ...AREA 1... TEST. ..AFWA.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 16:31:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 11:31:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221631.i8MGVud32649@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221619 SWODY1 SPC AC 221614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 45 N ROW 30 NNE LVS 55 ENE 4SL 45 S 4BL 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 NE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 WNW DSM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 40 NE ABI 35 NE SJT 10 NNW JCT 30 ESE JCT 10 SSW AUS 45 ESE CLL 20 S POE 25 NNE BTR 20 W MOB 10 SSE PNS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO CNTRL NM WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EWD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE STRONGEST AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO PORTIONS OF ECNTRL NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY FROM SW OF DHT TO AROUND HOB. IN THIS AREA...MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 8-9 C/KM. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ETA FORECASTS HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION/INSTABILITY FARTHER EWD...AND THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST THAT IF STORMS CAN FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND TIME PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 19:49:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 14:49:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221950.i8MJoKd02508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221948 SWODY1 SPC AC 221943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 45 N ROW 30 NNE LVS 30 NNW SAF 45 S 4BL 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 NE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 WNW DSM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 40 NE ABI 35 NE SJT 10 NNW JCT 30 ESE JCT 10 SSW AUS 45 ESE CLL 20 S POE 25 NNE BTR 20 W MOB 10 SSE PNS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO TO NRN NM...WILL BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NNEWD INTO WRN KS. SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SSWWD TO WRN KS /JUST E OF DDC/ TO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...AND THEN WSWWD TO THE NORTH OF AMA TO JUST S OF TCC BEFORE CURVING NWWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. DRY SWLY FLOW ACROSS NM HAS ALLOWED THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE TO MIX EWD WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL TX INTO SERN NM/FAR SW TX. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...WEAK UPPER FORCING AND WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN NM INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ..PETERS.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 01:04:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 20:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409230105.i8N151d20368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230102 SWODY1 SPC AC 230057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE AMA 55 N CDS 45 SW LBB 40 N HOB 45 SSW CVS 50 NE AMA 65 ENE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 30 W HOB 30 N ROW 30 SSE DHT 20 NW DHT 35 NW RTN 25 WNW COS 40 ESE CYS 55 ENE SNY EAR 45 WNW OFK 35 E FAR 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 S FOD OJC 35 ENE BVO 50 E OKC 30 NNW FTW TPL 15 SSW CLL 30 NNE HOU 10 ENE BPT 25 NNW LFT 30 E BTR 20 S GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME E CNTRL NM THROUGH PARTS OF NW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS...THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL NM NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM ERN NM INTO NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IN THIS AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH STRONGEST STORMS... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 04Z FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX. STORMS IN THE TX PANHANDLE ARE BEING UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED COLD FRONT...BUT MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH FROM ERN NM INTO NW TX WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE BASED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WITH TIME...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT PERSIST BEYOND ABOUT 04Z. ..DIAL.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 06:04:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 01:04:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409230604.i8N64sd05078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230602 SWODY1 SPC AC 230556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 40 NE MSP 30 NNE OTG 25 NW BKX 10 ENE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN 35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 60 N CDS 45 ESE P28 45 NNE ICT 30 NW MHK 50 WNW CNK 35 W EAR 30 N ANW 15 SSW JMS 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 75 NNW CMX 35 SSW IWD 35 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 WNW JVL 30 WNW MMO 25 NW ALN 15 ENE UNO 45 ENE LIT 25 SSE GLH 10 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 25 SW NIR 35 N VCT 10 N CLL 25 NW ACT 15 ENE BWD 25 N JCT 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BIL 10 NNW SHR 35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 ENE VEL 50 WSW RKS MLD 25 S SUN 65 NNE BOI 40 ENE LWS 50 SE FCA GTF 20 NNW BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN DURING THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN SD/WRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA AND INTO SE KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT FROM ERN SD SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT THAT IS LOCATED WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THE ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTIVE LINES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ADVANCING LINE OVER CNTRL/NRN MN...SOME SURFACE HEATING MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG. UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTIVE LINE IN DRY SLOT REGION ACROSS SWRN MN...NW IA AND ERN SD...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 13:00:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 08:00:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409231301.i8ND13d24841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 50 S DLH 25 NE MSP 20 NE MKT 20 ESE RWF 50 NW RWF 55 W AXN 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LCH 10 NW LCH 40 SE POE 30 NNE LFT 35 SSE BTR 35 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN 35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 55 N CDS 35 NNE END 30 SSW EMP 25 NNE EMP 40 NE MHK 25 SSW BIE 40 NW CNK 25 W EAR 40 NNE ANW 45 SSW JMS 70 N GFK ...CONT... 75 NNW CMX 35 SSW IWD 35 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 WNW JVL 30 WNW MMO 25 NW ALN 30 E UNO 55 ENE LIT 25 SSE GLH 10 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 10 NNW SHR 35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 SSE RKS 50 WSW RKS MLD 25 S SUN 65 NNE BOI 35 ENE LWS 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA... ...MN... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NWD ACROSS IA AND MN. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NRN MN. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN IA OR SRN MN AS ASCENT RAPIDLY INCREASES. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY ACROSS MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN SHOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT WILL PROMOTE A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE UPPER-TROUGH. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SPEEDS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES NWD INTO SRN CANADA AND INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING. ...SRN LA... TROPICAL STORM IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE LA COAST AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN WWD MOVEMENT. WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND IVAN MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS FAR SRN LA. TROPICAL STORM IVAN WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE TX WITH THE NRN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER SECTIONS OF SW LA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TORNADO THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SRN LA. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 16:00:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 11:00:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409231601.i8NG1Ad31438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231556 SWODY1 SPC AC 231554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GLS 50 NNW BPT 20 WSW POE 30 NNE LFT 35 SSE BTR 35 SSE HUM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 50 S DLH 25 NE MSP 20 NE MKT 20 ESE RWF 50 NW RWF 55 W AXN 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 25 ESE IWD 40 WSW CWA 20 WSW MSN 25 NE PIA 20 W SPI 55 NNW POF 30 WSW JBR 30 NW GWO 30 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS ...CONT... 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN 35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 55 N CDS 35 NNE END 30 SSW EMP 25 NNE EMP 40 NE MHK 25 SSW BIE 40 NW CNK 25 W EAR 40 NNE ANW 45 SSW JMS 70 NNW TVF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 10 NNW SHR 35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 SSE RKS 50 WSW RKS 25 WNW MLD 30 N TWF 80 N BOI 35 N S80 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SRN LA... ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL SD WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NNEWD INTO NWRN MN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT /EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING/ WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... APPEARS HEATING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. REGARDLESS... ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY FORMING INTO A LOW-TOPPED LINE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE THREATS OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD INCREASE. THEREFORE...CONTINUANCE OF A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK WARRANTED ATTM. ...LA COAST INTO THE UPPER TX COAST... T.S. IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WWD JUST OFF THE LA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BPT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP DATA FROM LCH AND LIX REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES FROM ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM SRN LA INTO SERN TX. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 19:36:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 14:36:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409231936.i8NJaod10250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231934 SWODY1 SPC AC 231933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS 50 NNW BPT 20 WSW POE 35 SSE ESF 15 SE BTR 35 SSE HUM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 25 SSE EAU 10 SSE RST 15 ENE MKT 25 ENE RWF 40 SSW AXN 55 WNW AXN 30 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 SW ALM 20 NNW CNM 45 NNW BGS 55 S CDS 30 ESE END 30 WSW CNU 10 ENE FLV 45 WSW DSM 25 E SUX 35 WNW OLU 25 ESE ANW 15 ESE PIR 55 NE MBG 70 N GFK ...CONT... 85 NNW CMX 30 ESE IWD 10 SSE CWA MSN 25 NE PIA 20 W SPI 55 NNW POF 30 WSW JBR 30 NW GWO 30 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 35 WNW CDR 30 S BFF 25 WNW FCL 50 SE RKS 50 WSW RKS 25 WNW MLD 30 N TWF 80 N BOI 35 N S80 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE LA AND UPPER TX COASTS... ...NRN PLAINS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD /N OF HON/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION OVER W-CNTRL MN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND THEN INTO ERN OK. EXPECT LOW TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 90-100KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE: 1) AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... AND 2) IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS. WITH REGARD TO 1)...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CLOUD SHIELD...HOWEVER ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITING MLCAPES TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 200-300 J/KG. A BROKEN...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR BRD TO NEAR RST...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR IS OVERWHELMING THE WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD TSTMS BECOME ORGANIZED...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OWING TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. WITH REGARD TO 2)...BOUNDARY-LAYER IS MUCH COOLER INVOF OF SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...HOWEVER COOLER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEPER LAPS RATES ARE RESULTING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM SURFACE LOW NEWD ALONG OCCLUSION TO SURGING COLD FRONT WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS N AND NE OF SURFACE LOW IS RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LA/UPPER TX COAST... AS OF 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CENTER OF T.S. IVAN CIRCULATION 50SW 7R4 MOVING NWWD. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SWRN LA AS WELL OVER S-CNTRL LA /W OF HUM/. HERE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS MARGINALLY STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 50-100 M2/S2 /PER LCH/NEW VWPS/. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LA COAST...PRIOR TO SHIFTING WWD INTO THE UPPER TX COAST OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 01:05:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 20:05:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409240106.i8O16Td24911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240104 SWODY1 SPC AC 240102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 35 SE CNM 35 ENE HOB 45 NNW ABI 25 NW ADM 25 WNW JLN 15 N SGF 40 SW UNO 25 SSW PBF 15 ENE HEZ 35 SW GPT ...CONT... 45 ENE CRP 30 W ALI 15 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX 45 WSW CMX 30 NW AUW 30 NNE LSE 20 WNW RST 10 WNW MKT 35 W MSP 10 WNW STC 20 SSE HIB 35 WNW HIB 30 E TVF 30 N FAR 40 NNE JMS 15 W DVL 60 N DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NW GULF COASTAL AREA... IVAN IS NEARING THE SW LA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW NWWD MOTION INLAND TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING GENERALLY N AND E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT LA AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CORRESPONDING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH 3 KM. A SMALL CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS N AND E OF CENTER ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA. HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL ACCELERATIONS AND STORM INTENSITIES...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO SRN LA. ...SE MN... LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH NO LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE MN W OF THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT/UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD. THE 00Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING SHOWED AMPLE DRY AIR FROM 3-6 KM...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINAL CAPE THROUGH 6 KM... STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2.5 KM AND STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH 6 KM. MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. HOWEVER... THREAT IS LIMITED BY MARGINAL CAPE AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ALTOGETHER AFTER 02Z. ..DIAL.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 12:34:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 07:34:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409241234.i8OCYtd07741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241233 SWODY1 SPC AC 241231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW 55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 50 SSW GUC 25 E CAG 35 N LAR 15 E BFF 35 WSW LBF 40 S MCK 30 WNW GCK 60 E DHT 25 E AMA 40 NNW CDS 30 SW CSM 45 N FSI 35 SSW JLN 40 NE SGF 55 ESE TBN 15 SW POF 15 NNW PBF 35 SE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...DEEP LAYER CLOSED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES INTO ONTARIO...AND WILL MERGE INTO STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. TROUGHING WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE... EXTENDING IN POSITIVELY TILTED FASHION TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY FORM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION MIGRATING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND NEAR WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. FRONT CURVES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTION. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS HIGH-LEVEL FEATURE LIFTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT PROVIDE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SOME HEATING APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR WEAKENING LOWER/MID-LEVEL TROPICAL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DESPITE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF FLOW FIELDS...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS. THIS POSES AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS BECOMES POSITIVELY BUOYANT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PECOS VALLEY INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/LOW... DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WELL AFTER ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR/GUYER.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 16:11:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 11:11:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409241612.i8OGC9d20254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241606 SWODY1 SPC AC 241604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW 55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 45 SSW GUC 35 N MTJ 60 WSW CAG 45 SSE RWL 35 N LAR 45 W MHN 30 SW BBW 35 N HLC 25 NW GCK 60 E DHT 40 NE PVW 15 NE CDS 10 NE LTS 35 SSW JLN 40 NE SGF 45 NNW POF 30 S CGI 30 ENE DYR 35 S MKL 35 WSW UOX 45 W GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM/WEST TX... BROAD...WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED POOL OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /-10 TO -14C AT 500MB/. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN. ...EAST TX/WESTERN LA... REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION IS NEAR LFK THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF CENTER. LOCAL VAD PROFILES SHOW MARGINAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER WARRANT LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES TODAY. ..HART/BANACOS.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 19:44:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 14:44:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409241945.i8OJjLd02749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241943 SWODY1 SPC AC 241941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW 55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 30 S MTJ 15 ENE GJT 50 WSW CAG 25 NNW RWL 25 N CPR 20 ESE 81V 45 ENE CDR 30 NW HLC 25 NW GCK 60 E DHT 40 NE PVW 15 NE CDS 10 NE LTS 35 SSW JLN 20 WSW TBN 25 N SLO 35 NNW EVV 45 NW HOP 15 WNW MKL 55 SW MEM 45 W GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM/WRN TX... MESOANALYSIS PLACES DIFFUSE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX WWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS INTO E-CNTRL NM /S OF CVS/. IT IS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY THAT STRONGEST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PERSISTED...NAMELY OVER SERN NM. DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX WWD ACROSS NM. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO SWRN TX WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM THE SRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS SWD TO THE SACRAMENTOS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY 20-25 KTS IN THE 6-7 KM LAYER. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT BRIEF ROTATION/ CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2256. ...SERN TX/WRN LA... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION NEAR LFK WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL LA TO VICINITY OF POE. CURRENT DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SABINE RIVER VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 500 J/KG. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF CIRCULATION EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. HERE...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 00:43:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 19:43:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409250043.i8P0hkd28690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250041 SWODY1 SPC AC 250040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUG 55 E SOW 25 SSE GNT 20 S 4SL 40 NNW 4SL 20 NNE CEZ 55 N GJT 15 NW RWL 15 ESE DGW 35 WSW MHN 30 NW HLC 20 NE GCK 45 NNE AMA 40 SE AMA 15 NE CDS 20 E OKC 35 NW FYV 20 SSW TBN 30 WNW SLO 35 ENE MVN 35 ESE PAH 15 WNW MKL 55 SW MEM 15 WNW GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM THROUGH WRN TX... THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN OK SWWD THROUGH NW TX...THEN BECOMES POORLY DEFINED ACROSS SW TX. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX...AND THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR INITIATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...OVERALL TRENDS IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. A MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MN IS SPREADING EWD INTO S CNTRL NM. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER IS WITHIN A REGION OF DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN AZ. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE SELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER SERN NM THIS EVENING. THE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH ASCENT AND MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING LATE OVER S AND SERN NM WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN NM MAY ALSO HELP TO INITIATE NEW STORMS AS IT MOVES E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT MAINTAINING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 05:32:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 00:32:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409250532.i8P5Wfd27771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250530 SWODY1 SPC AC 250528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HYA 30 NE EKN 30 E PKB 25 NW HLG 15 W FKL 15 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 35 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FHU 40 SSW INW 25 W EGE 30 ESE CYS 25 WNW MHN 10 N EAR 50 NE HLC 55 SW HLC 40 SSW LBL 30 WNW CDS 40 W SPS 35 NE JBR MKL 30 NE UOX 15 NNW ESF 15 W 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... HURRICANE JEANNE LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING WWD AT 10 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SOMETIME AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER... EXACTLY WHEN JEANNE WILL BEGIN THE MORE NWD TURN IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER INLAND PENETRATION...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL COASTS N AND E OF THE CENTER. THREAT MAY SPREAD FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. ...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO ONTARIO WILL DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD OVER THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE NERN STATES AND SE CANADA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN MAINE SWWD THROUGH NY AND PA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NE U.S. AND MAY TEND TO LIMIT DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. GIVEN TENDENCY FOR UPPER TROUGH TO DE AMPLIFY... PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND VEERED TO WSWLY. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD ADVECT ENEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 60 EXPECTED. CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MAY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN PREVIOUSLY LIMITING FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND W TX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM WITHIN REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEBRIS FROM THE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY SERVE TO LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA SATURDAY. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM AS WELL A ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 12:29:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 07:29:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409251230.i8PCUAd06369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251228 SWODY1 SPC AC 251227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 25 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 50 SSE FLG 30 SSW MTJ 30 NNW FCL 20 NW MHN 20 S BBW 35 N HLC 35 E LAA 10 SW EHA 35 NNW CDS 65 SW SPS 20 NNW MWL 55 SE HRO JBR UOX 10 NNW ESF 35 W 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BOS 30 N JFK 35 ENE EKN 30 SW MGW 15 SW BFD 25 NNW PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN FLORIDA.... STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. DEEP CLOSED LOW...WHICH LIFTED OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND MERGED INTO THIS FLOW REGIME DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS... CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC/THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HURRICANE JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...LIKELY INTO THE VERO BEACH AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL INFLUX OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MID 70S+ DEW POINTS OCCURS WITH APPROACH OF JEANNE THIS EVENING. UNTIL CIRCULATION CENTER MIGRATES INLAND AROUND 26/06Z... RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN OUTER BANDS MAY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...NORTH OF VERO BEACH INTO THE VICINITY OF MELBOURNE AND PERHAPS JACKSONVILLE. THEREAFTER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE ORLANDO AREA AS WELL...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL AWAIT INCREASING POSITIVE BUOYANCY OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ...NORTHEASTERN U.S... SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING EASTERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AT LEAST WEAK LIFT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH NARROW PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES...THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS REMAINING STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES OVERTURNED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THEREAFTER...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW...IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO WARM ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SIGNIFICANT CAPE. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. ...EAST TEXAS... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THIS REGION COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 16:11:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 11:11:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409251612.i8PGCMd15065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251605 SWODY1 SPC AC 251604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 25 NW AYS 20 ESE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSM 10 SSE BDL 20 WNW ABE 30 ESE PSB 15 NE DUJ 20 E JHW 10 N ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 60 ESE PRC 70 ESE PGA 20 E GJT 35 SW LAR 25 NE AIA 25 NNE MHN 30 WNW EAR 40 W RSL 30 WNW EHA 20 SE DHT 70 NNE ABI 30 N MWL 25 SSW DUA 25 SSW HRO 30 SW JBR 40 SSW MEM 25 WNW GWO 30 WNW HEZ 20 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE HURRICANE JEANNE APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA. OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ONLY MINOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ...FL... HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN PBI-MLB THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD AND NORTH OF CENTER. THREAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS EYE MOVES INLAND AND BEGINS A NORTHWARD TURN. ...NEW ENGLAND... FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING ALONG FRONT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHWARD INTO ME. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...NM... PERSISTENT MID LEVEL COLD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14 OVER NM. MORNING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE WEAK...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ..HART.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 19:42:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 14:42:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409251943.i8PJh4d26195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251939 SWODY1 SPC AC 251938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 25 NW AYS 20 ESE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSM 10 SSE BDL 20 WNW ABE 30 ESE PSB 15 NE DUJ 20 E JHW 10 N ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 60 ESE PRC 70 ESE PGA 20 E GJT 35 SW LAR 25 NE AIA 25 NNE MHN 30 WNW EAR 40 W RSL 20 ENE EHA 60 NE AMA 30 WSW LTS 30 N MWL 25 SSW DUA 30 S UMN 25 N ARG 40 SSW MEM 25 WNW GWO 30 WNW HEZ 20 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PENINSULA... ...FL... AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE APPROXIMATELY 100 E OF PBI WITH A WNWWD MOVEMENT OF AROUND 14 MPH. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE NWWD TRACK WITH TIME WITH CENTER LOCATION OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AND TORNADO POTENTIAL/ IN NW-NE QUADRANT OF HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL E COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NWD OR NWWD SHIFT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2258. ...SERN AZ/SRN NM/FAR WRN TX... DIABATIC HEATING IN WAKE OF DECAYING TSTM COMPLEX OVER WRN TX...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AZ HAVE AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NM AND E-CNTRL AZ. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N OF EFK TO N OF SYR. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM NWRN VT INDICATES A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KTS. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS PERSIST...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TEND TO DISCOURAGE ANY SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 00:50:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 19:50:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409260051.i8Q0pAd25374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260048 SWODY1 SPC AC 260046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 50 E PHX 65 SSW 4BL 25 ESE GJT 30 SSE LAR 35 SW SNY 10 NNE LIC 10 SSW RTN 45 SW AMA 55 W ABI 20 ESE SJT 35 ENE JCT 30 WSW TPL 45 ENE CLL 10 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 15 SSW AYS 25 S SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN 2/3 OF FL AND SERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF STRONGER / PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD. OTHER THAN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SERN AZ / SWRN NM / NRN MEXICO...FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK / NONDESCRIPT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN HURRICANE JEANNE...WHICH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SERN FL COAST. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NWWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING HURRICANE JEANNE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...FL / FAR SERN GA... LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF JEANNE OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND AREA WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY DATA CONFIRMS THAT OUTER BAND CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. WITH EVENING RAOBS INDICATING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL -- MAINLY N OF THE CENTER...AS A COUPLE OF BRIEF SPIN-UPS WITH MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..GOSS.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 16:15:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 11:15:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409261616.i8QGGHd15723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261612 SWODY1 SPC AC 261610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB AGR PIE ...CONT... 30 S TLH ABY 60 E MCN 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DUG 45 WSW FMN 35 W MTJ 45 S CAG 45 NNW 4FC 15 ENE DEN 30 SSE LAA 15 WNW GAG 30 ESE LTS 30 NNW TYR 35 NE LFK 20 NNE BPT 20 S BPT ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SE CSG 20 NNE FAY 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CMX 50 N EAU 10 S FSD 25 SSE MHE 30 NE 9V9 40 WSW ABR 40 S JMS 10 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BIL 25 E RIW 35 NW BPI 35 ENE OWY 95 NNW WMC 45 NNW LMT 30 NNW RDM 30 WNW PDT 35 ESE GTF 15 E LWT 45 ESE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...GA...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...FL/GA/SC... JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WNWWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WELL AWAY FROM CIRCULATION CENTER...OVER NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA. THESE AREAS ALSO APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES IN THESE REGION. THREAT MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MORE OF GA/ SOUTHERN SC THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE... AND COASTAL FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES INLAND. REF MCD #2262 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES...AND PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THESE REGIONS WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..HART/BANACOS.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 19:40:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 14:40:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409261940.i8QJeud18416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261938 SWODY1 SPC AC 261936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 30 W AGR 25 N PIE ...CONT... 30 S TLH ABY 35 SW AGS 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DUG 45 WSW FMN 35 W MTJ 35 S RWL 10 NE LAR 35 E FCL 30 SW LIC 10 NE LAA 35 NE GCK 35 ESE DDC 50 W END 30 ESE LTS 30 NNW TYR 35 NE LFK 20 NNE BPT 20 S BPT ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SE CSG 20 NNE FAY 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CMX 50 N EAU 10 S FSD 25 SSE MHE 30 NE 9V9 40 WSW ABR 40 S JMS 10 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SHR 15 NNW LND 60 W BPI 45 SW TWF 90 SE BNO 30 NW BNO 70 NE RDM 30 WNW PDT 30 ESE GTF 50 N BIL 30 NW SHR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...GA AND SC... ...FL/GA/SC... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE CENTER OF JEANNE APPROXIMATELY 50 NNE PIE MOVING NWWD AT 10 MPH. PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...A CONTINUED NWWD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO TURNING MORE NLY TOWARD THE GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES EXISTS OVER THE NERN FL PENINSULA WHERE A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ ARE CO-LOCATED WITH REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 PER JACKSONVILLE VWP/. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... EXPECT THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SHIFT INLAND AND NWD WITH TIME WITH TORNADO THREAT INCREASING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SERN AND S-CNTRL GA. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2263. ..MEAD.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 00:22:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 19:22:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409270023.i8R0N0d12714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270020 SWODY1 SPC AC 270019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TLH ABY 40 SSE MCN 40 SSW AGS 25 ENE CHS ...CONT... 25 N MLB 35 W ORL 15 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WRL 10 ESE LND 10 WSW SUN 20 ENE BOI 90 NW OWY 45 WSW BNO 45 NE RDM 10 NW ALW 45 E HLN 20 SE 3HT 15 S WRL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DUG 45 WSW FMN 25 SW ASE 55 ENE CAG 20 ENE CYS 25 S SNY 20 E LIC 15 E LAA 20 NE GCK 35 ESE DDC 40 NE GAG 25 N CDS 45 NE SJT 15 NE COT 40 NNE BRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 WNW ABY 10 N MCN 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL / S CENTRAL AND SERN GA / FAR SERN SC... ...NRN FL PENINSULA / S CENTRAL AND SERN GA / FAR SERN SC... JEANNE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE NWRN FL PENINSULA APPROXIMATELY 45 SSE CTY...CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NNWWD. LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE THAT THE STORM WILL CURVE MORE NWD WITH TIME AND APPROACH THE FL / GA BORDER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN ADVECTED WWD INTO NRN FL / S GA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN-LAYER CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /35 TO 45 KTS SFC-1 KM SHEAR AND 500 TO 600 M2/S2 SFC-1 KM HELICITY ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/ SUGGEST THAT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN PRONOUNCED BAND EXTENDING ATTM FROM OFF THE NERN FL COAST NWWD INTO THE JAX AREA AND THEN WWD ALONG THE FL / GA BORDER. SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE CONTAINED LOW-LEVEL VELOCITY COUPLETS...AND THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS BAND SHIFTS NWD WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 15:45:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:45:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409271547.i8RFlId00757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271542 SWODY1 SPC AC 271540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRE CHS 30 SE AGS CAE 35 SSW SOP FAY 10 SSW ILM 15 SSE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE SSI AYS 55 SSW AGS 30 WNW CAE 50 NNW RWI 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE APN 10 SW OSH 20 SSW ALO 20 WNW FNB 35 SW P28 60 S CDS 20 NE HDO 20 E CRP ...CONT... 30 W ELP ONM 35 NNE CEZ 10 W PUC 30 NW ENV 65 ESE 4LW 20 SSE MFR 30 WNW MFR 25 SW SLE 25 SSE PDX 35 WSW PDT 50 SE S80 10 ENE MQM 30 SSW SHR 30 ENE ATY 10 SE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 35 S GNV GNV MGR 30 W MCN 55 S PSK 25 S CHO 10 S BWI 20 N PHL 20 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... REMNANTS OF JEANNE ARE OVER SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...GA/SC/NC... CENTER OF JEANNE IS NEAR ALBANY GA AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF GA AND WESTERN SC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER EASTERN SC. THIS AREA IS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST NC MAY SEE ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /ENHANCED NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES/ COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS FARTHER WEST OVER NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN SC/NC SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 20:01:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 15:01:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409272003.i8RK3Od14172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271959 SWODY1 SPC AC 271958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 20 SSE FLO 20 N FLO 45 SW SOP 15 N SOP RDU 25 NW RWI 25 NNW EWN 35 SSE EWN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 50 ESE AGS 25 NE AGS 30 WNW CAE 60 NNE RWI 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP ONM 45 SSW MTJ PUC ENV LMT 30 WNW MFR SLE PDT 50 SE S80 COD 45 NNE SHR PHP 10 SE DLH ...CONT... APN OSH ALO FNB P28 LTS AUS 40 SSE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 20 WSW JAX 40 ESE VLD 55 SE MCN 30 W MCN 55 S PSK 25 S CHO DCA 25 NNW ILG 20 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE DAB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SC AND ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS CONTAINS PRONOUNCED/POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN ONT...ERRATICALLY MOVING AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FAR W TX...BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK PERTURBATIONS OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES...ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER MT...AND DEEP-LAYER REMNANTS OF T.C. JEANNE. NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF JEANNE AND ONSET OF ITS NEWD ACCELERATION NEAR END OF PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES JEANNE HAS LINKED WITH SRN END OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ALONG ERN PIEDMONT AND WRN COASTAL PLAIN TO NERN NC. ISALLOBARIC FALL AXIS JUST W OF FRONT INDICATES SOME WWD DRIFT POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW APCHS. FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE NWWD AS WARM FRONT INTO REMAINDER NERN NC AND SERN VA. MEANWHILE...EACH PERTURBATION FROM TX TO MT AND W COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT REGIONAL GEN TSTM POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEFICIENCIES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY. ...ERN CAROLINAS AREA... REF SPC WW 844 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION. THREAT FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLY SHEARED/BUOYANT SECTOR OF T.D. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AT PROBABILITIES GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MDT CATEGORICAL RISK...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SPIRAL/CONVERGENCE BAND NOW CONTAINING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER ERN SC. THIS ZONE OF MAXIMIZED LIFT -- ALSO LOCATED JUST INSIDE LEADING EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS SC/NC BORDER REGION. OTHER SMALLER BANDS AND DISCRETE CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SW OF OUTER BAND...ALSO CONTAINING OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLS. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SERVE AS WRN BOUND FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...SINCE TO ITS W...AIR MASS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AND CONVECTIVE INFLOW MORE ELEVATED ABOVE SFC. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG SHOULD SHIFT/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD...ALONG WITH VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL AND ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. MODIFIED 18Z RAOBS INDICATE MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG FOR REMAINDER DIURNAL CYCLE...DROPPING TO 200-800 J/KG RANGE AFTER APPROXIMATELY 28/06Z. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT -- AS DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL INSTABILITY LESSENS...SUPERCELLS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC...BUT SOME NOCTURNAL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS INVOF NC/VA BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 01:08:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 20:08:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409280109.i8S19md26404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280107 SWODY1 SPC AC 280105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 45 SE CAE 35 SE SPA 20 SE GSO 50 NNW RWI 25 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 35 NNE ALM 20 NNE TCS 50 WNW ONM 40 ESE FMN 15 SW CEZ 15 NW U17 25 WSW BCE 50 SSE SLC SLC 50 SE EKO 35 S OWY 65 NE BOI 45 SSW 27U 35 WNW COD 40 S GCC 10 SSW GLD 10 NNW GRI 30 ESE SUX 60 ENE OMA 55 SE OMA FNB P28 LTS 55 S AUS 55 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SAV 40 S CAE 20 WNW CAE 35 ESE AND 40 WSW GSO 25 S CHO 25 NNW ILG 20 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS... T.D. JEANNE -- NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GA -- CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD TOWARD SC ATTM. NE OF JEANNE...COASTAL FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY AGS TO RDU. AIRMASS NEAR AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. STRONGEST BAND ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE EXTENDS ROUGHLY SSE-NNW ACROSS ERN SC ATTM...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS N AND E OF THIS BAND. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF JEANNE...FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY AFTER 28/06Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS -- AND PERHAPS WITHIN MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER ERN SC. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 05:22:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 00:22:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409280524.i8S5O2d29097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280522 SWODY1 SPC AC 280519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S EWN 30 NE FAY 30 SSE DAN 30 SE LYH 35 NNE RIC 35 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN DRA 45 WNW BIH 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 40 N BOI 25 ESE 27U 60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35 WSW LHX 50 SW RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 20 WSW LTS 35 NNW ABI 15 NNE SAT 20 ESE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 20 SSW ALM 30 NNW SVC DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE 35 SW GSO 30 SSW SHD 25 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW OWY 75 NNW WMC 20 S LOL 30 NW TPH 40 WSW ELY 15 SE ENV TWF 40 NNW OWY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN MD / SRN DE... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO CANADA THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES / NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. FURTHER WEST...RELATIVELY WEAK / BROAD TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE LOWS / SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...FORECAST INVOF THE N CENTRAL SC / S CENTRAL NC BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAKENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WITH TIME AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 29/00Z...AT WHICH TIME IT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED NERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. REMNANTS OF JEANNE -- ALONG WITH COLD FRONT -- WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN DE / SRN MD... ALTHOUGH TUESDAY SHOULD PROVE LESS ACTIVE THAN MONDAY IN TERMS OF TORNADO POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY MOIST / SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF TC JEANNE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH JEANNE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY OFFSET ANY WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD...ALLOWING ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST / SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH JEANNE FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE / MERGE WITH COLD FRONT IN THE 29/00-03Z TIME FRAME. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 12:45:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 07:45:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409281247.i8SClNd09845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281245 SWODY1 SPC AC 281244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S EWN 50 SW ECG 60 WNW ECG 40 SSE CHO 45 ENE CHO 25 SE BWI 25 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 20 SSE DRA 55 N NID 55 NW NID 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 45 NNW BOI 25 ESE 27U 60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35 WSW LHX 20 N RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 25 SE SPS 15 WNW SEP 10 S AUS 20 ESE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 25 NE RWI 30 E LYH 20 ESE HGR 30 NNW HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA... ...EXTREME ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA... 1000 MB REMNANT JEANNE LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KCLT-KGSP AT 12Z AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC AND SERN VA TODAY/TONIGHT. COASTAL/WARM FRONT HAD REDEVELOPED INLAND THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LAST NIGHT AND MID 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WERE COMMON EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AT DAYBREAK. DOMINANT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL CLEAR EXTREME ERN NC THIS MORNING...SERN VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DELMARVA REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING SINCE ABOUT 10Z...BUT MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN AS HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS. LATEST VWP FROM WAKEFIELD SUGGESTS AROUND 160 M2/S2 OF SRH IN THE LOWEST 1KM...FOR DEVIANT RIGHT MOVING CELL. THOUGH THIS IS WEAKER THAN VALUES OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO/ DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC...SERN VA OR DELMARVA AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THREATS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME OWING TO SOMEWHAT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. ANOTHER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXISTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SC/NC BORDER...EFFECTIVELY A DEMARCATION OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER WORKING NEWD. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THIS ZONE GIVEN CLOUDS/WEAK INSTABILITY AND DISPLACED LARGE SCALE MASS CONVERGENCE FARTHER NE. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 00:41:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 19:41:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409010042.i810ghL16042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010039 SWODY1 SPC AC 010036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 60 NNW GBN 25 SSE IGM 60 NNE IGM 25 NE CNY 45 SW LAR 10 WSW MHN 45 SSW MHE 30 ESE FAR 15 NE INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 50 NNW ABI 50 S BWD 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 25 SW PSK 20 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80 60 WNW BOI 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MN SWWD INTO NEB... LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS NWRN IA INTO CNTRL NEB. STRONG HEATING ALONG NEB PORTION OF BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED FOR LOCAL CAP REMOVAL AND INITIATION OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST N OF THE PLATTE RIVER. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. FARTHER NE...AN ISOLATED STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY N OF MCW WITH ADDITIONAL TCU NOTED TO THE W ACROSS N-CNTRL IA. 00Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR /I.E. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KTS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER WAS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH A STRONGER CAP. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN MN INTO N-CNTRL IA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...COOLING BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STRENGTHENING CAP SHOULD TEND TO DISCOURAGE ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 05:14:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 00:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409010516.i815GYL00666@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010512 SWODY1 SPC AC 010509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 45 SSW COD 40 WNW OGD 50 ENE U31 55 SE TVL 25 NNE SAC 40 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 E PDX 10 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 SSE GBN 10 S PHX 45 WSW PRC 30 ESE IGM 40 W GCN 35 NNW GUP 15 N FMN 15 SSE ASE 20 W FCL 40 WNW AKO 50 W GLD 45 NW EHA 30 E AMA 40 NE SJT 40 NNW HDO 30 S SAT 40 S VCT ...CONT... 30 SW BPT 30 WSW POE 40 E ELD 30 E MEM 30 NNW BNA 35 SSE JKL 10 NNE GSO 25 SE ECG ...CONT... OSC 25 NNE GRR 35 N CGX 25 ENE MLI 10 SE OTM 45 ESE OMA 35 SW SPW 10 NNE FRM 40 WSW EAU 25 WNW RHI 30 NNW MQT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN ROCKIES... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. AN ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER N-CNTRL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO SRN ORE. STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING /I.E. 60-90M/12HR HEIGHT FALLS/ WILL PRECEDE TROUGH AXIS EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM/ COINCIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL: 1) MAXIMIZE THIS LARGE-SCALE FORCING...AND 2) CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY FROM PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL ID EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PUSHES EWD AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT /I.E. 45-55KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...WI/IA... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...RELATIVELY WEAK CAP OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVOF BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED OWING TO THE WEAK WIND SHEAR...HOWEVER THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 15:58:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 10:58:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409011559.i81FxOL17768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011556 SWODY1 SPC AC 011552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BPT 15 NNE POE 20 NNE CBM 50 SE BNA 30 WSW BLF 15 ENE DAN 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 35 WNW PIA 30 SSE OMA 30 N OFK 15 NNE FSD 15 N RST 35 E MQT ...CONT... 60 NNE DVL 40 WSW P24 20 SW MLS 15 NE COD 50 E PIH 20 NW BAM 45 SSE 4LW 70 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST ...CONT... 50 SW TUS 60 ENE PHX 20 S INW 60 SSW GUP 50 W ALS 35 SSW 4FC 35 WSW SNY 25 SSE IML 40 ESE GLD 65 NW ABI 35 ESE JCT 40 SSE SAT 30 SW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ID/MT... RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WA WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT 500MB FLOW OVERSPREADING PARTS OF ID/MT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. ...IA... MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS IA TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS AREA IS LACK OF FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DUE TO WEAK CAP AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM WOULD HAVE A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 1 19:36:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 14:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409011937.i81JbSL16880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011933 SWODY1 SPC AC 011929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 40 ENE LWT 25 NNW 27U 85 SSE S80 75 N BOI 40 SW S80 25 N S80 25 SSW FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE MTC 10 N BRL 25 NNE LWD 10 NNE SUX 20 NNW OTG 25 SSW MSP 35 E MQT ...CONT... 50 N MOT 30 N GDV 50 ESE BIL 15 ESE COD 30 SSE BPI 30 ESE OGD 35 ENE ENV 30 WNW EKO 70 NW WMC 65 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX 20 S INW 25 WSW GNT 50 W ALS 45 WSW COS 10 NNW LIC 40 SW GLD 25 NE CDS 65 NW ABI 35 SE JCT 45 NW NIR 30 SW PSX ...CONT... 25 SW GLS 30 NNE HOU 40 NW POE 40 SW LUL 30 E LUL 30 SSW CBM 45 N TUP 45 SSE PAH 15 NW BWG 20 WNW TRI 30 SSW BLF 40 SE LYH 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF MT... ...NRN ROCKIES TO NCNTRL MT... STRONG TROUGH MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN CASCADE MOUNTAINS OF WA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID AND WRN MT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND AREAS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY ARE STILL RECEIVING STRONG SURFACE HEATING. OBJECTIVE MLCAPE GUIDANCE SUGGEST VALUES AOB 500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR TSTMS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING FROM ID EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2145 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ...SRN MN/IA... CAPPED BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK AND STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN MN INTO IA. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE CAP IS WEAKER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. OVER IA...HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKER FORCING SUGGEST ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING WHICH MAY LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP AND RESULT IN A FEW STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL...OR A STRONG DOWNDRAFT OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 09/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 00:56:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2004 19:56:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409020058.i820wZL10522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020055 SWODY1 SPC AC 020052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW GGW 40 ENE LWT 30 NNW BZN 25 NW BTM 15 S MSO 40 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW TUS 45 NNE PHX 10 SW INW 20 NE GUP 50 SSW GUC 50 ESE ASE 10 NW LIC 50 SW GLD 45 ENE DHT 35 SSE LBB 10 ENE JCT 45 SE SAT 20 WSW PSX ...CONT... 25 SW GLS 30 NNE HOU 40 NW POE 40 SW LUL 30 E LUL 30 SSW CBM 45 N TUP 45 SSE PAH 15 NW BWG 20 WNW TRI 30 SSW BLF 40 SE LYH 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 15 SE BIS 45 NNW SHR 10 SSE JAC 40 SW MLD 45 E OWY 80 E 4LW 65 N LMT 20 ENE SLE 50 S AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W LSE 45 W CWA 45 N GRB 45 NNW MBL 35 W MKG 30 ESE JVL 45 WNW DBQ 25 W LSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT... ...MT... BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW SUPPORTS THIS WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 500MB...ROUGHLY 9C/KM. STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS MT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE THREAT...AT LEAST UNTIL THE INSTABILITY IS DEPLETED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES THAT ORIENT THEMSELVES PERPENDICULAR...NW-SE...TO THE MEAN WIND. ..DARROW.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 05:44:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 00:44:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409020545.i825jCL31333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020543 SWODY1 SPC AC 020539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 45 ENE COT 55 S CLL TYR 40 E ELD 15 SE JBR 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 45 SSE PKB 20 W BLF 30 WSW HKY 20 S SPA 25 SE CAE 45 N CRE 10 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 10 NNW AXN 35 SSW MHE 30 S MHN 20 NNE LIC 20 SSW LHX 25 SW CAO 30 W TCC 40 SW 4CR 20 E SVC 45 NW SVC 80 E SOW 10 E GNT 40 NE 4SL 40 ESE GUC 35 WNW EGE 45 WSW CAG 35 SW VEL 10 WSW PUC 20 ESE MLF 60 NNW P38 10 NNE U31 15 N BAM 15 WNW MLD 40 NW PIH 75 NNE BOI 50 S S80 45 ESE S80 15 W BTM 10 ENE HLN 35 SSE HVR 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 25 E ESC 20 NNE MTW 30 NW OSH 10 E AUW 15 N RHI 10 W CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 NNW MRF 20 SE FST 35 ENE P07 45 NW DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE THURSDAY AS STRONGER FLOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC PRESSURES TO RISE ACROSS MT FORCING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING PEAK HEATING. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS WED AFTERNOON WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100'S. IT APPEARS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH 600MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY INITIATING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE OPTIMAL ZONE OF CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF GUSTY WINDS THAN HAIL. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND POST FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ALONG WIND SHIFT TO MORE ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...MOSTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. AT ANY RATE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 12:47:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 07:47:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409021248.i82Cm6L22767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021245 SWODY1 SPC AC 021242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 25 E ESC 20 NNE MTW 30 NW OSH 10 E AUW 15 N RHI 10 W CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 NNW MRF 20 SE FST 35 ENE P07 45 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 10 NNW AXN 35 SSW MHE 30 S MHN 20 NNE LIC 20 SSW LHX 25 SW CAO 30 W TCC 40 SW 4CR 20 E SVC 45 NW SVC 80 E SOW 10 E GNT 40 NE 4SL 40 ESE GUC 35 WNW EGE 45 WSW CAG 35 SW VEL 25 SSW PUC 30 NW BCE 60 NNW P38 10 NNE U31 15 N BAM 15 WNW MLD 40 NW PIH 75 NNE BOI 50 S S80 45 ESE S80 15 W BTM 10 ENE HLN 35 SSE HVR 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 45 ENE COT 55 SSW CLL TYR 40 E ELD 15 SE JBR 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 45 SSE PKB 15 NNW BLF 30 E HKY 30 SW CLT 30 SSW FLO 35 NNE CRE 45 SW HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD...WHILE MAKING ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND AND BOUNDARY TRAILING SWWD INTO WY ATTM WILL ALSO MAKE MINIMAL EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LAGS UPSTREAM. FURTHER WEST...BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SWD. ...NRN PLAINS WWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST ABOVE A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH / FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW / BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND DRY / INVERTED V-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER WEST...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND MT -- AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREAD SLOWLY EWD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY / ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL / WIND. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 16:27:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 11:27:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409021628.i82GSgL17405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021626 SWODY1 SPC AC 021622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELO 25 WNW LBF 55 S LVS 10 W ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 60 E SOW 35 SSW MTJ 25 SSW U28 35 ENE MLF 75 ENE TPH 45 E U31 15 SSE EKO 40 SSW PIH 30 ENE SUN 55 SSE RDM 10 NNW ONP ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 NNE 3DU 30 SE GTF 55 NE LWT 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ANJ 20 NNE TVC 25 W MBL MSN 25 SW VOK 35 SSE IWD 25 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 30 NW AUS 15 W FTW 25 WSW OKC 15 SW BVO 25 W FYV 15 SE HOT 50 N GLH 30 WSW DYR 15 NE CGI 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 20 NE HKY 30 ENE CAE 15 ENE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WESTERN STATES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS... MODELS INDICATE LARGE...COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WITH PRIMARY JET STREAK STILL DIGGING UPSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS... POSITIVE-TILT ORIENTATION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND CONFINED TO THERMAL GRADIENT IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COOLING LOW/MID- LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN MOST VIGOROUS CELLS...BUT CAPE IN MODERATE TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF FRONT...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS IN ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AS STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STRONG NOSING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SPREADS EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OR EVEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS FRONTAL ZONE PROGRESSES INTO MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT DEEPER INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ...SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF INTO LOWER OH VLY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING. IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE CONTRIBUTES TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SOUTH/EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND AHEAD OF HURRICANE FRANCES...MAY PROVE INHIBITIVE TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 2 19:59:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 14:59:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409022000.i82K0vL11232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021958 SWODY1 SPC AC 021954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE ELO 20 E AXN 50 E ANW 15 WSW LAA 50 SSE LVS 10 W ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 60 E SOW FMN 40 SW MTJ 25 SSW U28 35 ENE MLF 75 ENE TPH 45 E U31 15 SSE EKO 40 SSW PIH 30 ENE SUN 55 SSE RDM 10 NNW ONP ...CONT... 50 N FCA 50 NNE 3DU 30 SE GTF 55 NE LWT 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ANJ 30 S PLN 20 WSW MBL 30 SSW MTW 20 WSW OSH 25 SE CWA 20 ESE RHI 25 W MQT 80 NNE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE DRT 30 NW AUS 15 W FTW 25 WSW OKC 15 SW BVO 25 W FYV 15 SE HOT 50 N GLH 30 WSW DYR 15 NE CGI 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 15 SSW CAK 20 NE HKY 30 ENE CAE 15 ENE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN US. A MID-LEVEL JET AXIS IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM SE ID EXTENDING NEWD INTO SW ND. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO PROVIDE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NRN ND EXTENDING SWWD TO CNTRL WY. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY WEST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE CAP IS THE WEAKEST. SBCAPE VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE INVERTED V-PROFILES IN PLACE...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH POST-FRONTAL STORMS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...UP MI... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE UP OF MI. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...REF MCD 2256. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 01:02:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Sep 2004 20:02:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409030103.i8313VL15557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030101 SWODY1 SPC AC 030057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 ENE PHX 50 S GUP 35 NNW ABQ 45 ENE LVS 30 WNW TCC 25 N ROW 15 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 30 WSW AUS 40 ENE LIT 15 ESE POF 35 WNW MDH 25 SW DEC 15 W SBN 15 S DTW 20 S CAK 40 ENE CRW 70 NNW AHN 20 S AND 30 ENE CAE 15 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 35 NNE BKX 65 W YKN 30 S LBF 55 ESE LIC 20 WNW PUB 40 SSW MTJ 15 NW CDC 10 SW TPH 45 NE SCK 55 SE RBL 15 W SVE 35 SW BAM 40 SE OWY 30 W PIH 20 S LVM 85 WNW MLS 60 NNE GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS... LARGE...COLD NWRN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DIG SSEWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...FROM ERN ND SWWD ACROSS WRN NEB/SERN WY TO CENTRAL UT/NV... WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD TO ERN MT/ND AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO ERN MT/ND. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..PETERS.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 12:55:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 07:55:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409031256.i83CuKG18356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031252 SWODY1 SPC AC 031249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CMX 40 N BRD BKX BBW 25 WNW MCK 50 E LIC 20 WSW LHX 40 SSE RTN 15 E ABQ 45 S GNT 65 NNW SVC 25 SW SVC 65 SSW DMN ...CONT... 20 WNW YUM 50 NE LAS 50 ENE DRA DRA 70 ESE BIH 30 NE BIH 60 NW TPH 55 SSE EKO 15 NNE MLD 35 NW JAC 25 NE WRL 25 ENE SHR SDY 50 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT TPL 20 WSW TXK 25 NE HOT POF SLO MMO 35 S MKE 50 SW HTL 25 NNE MBS ...CONT... 30 NW EPM MPV UCA 40 NNE PSB 30 NNW LBE CRW TRI AHN 55 ESE MCN 25 N SAV 30 SSE FLO 35 WNW OAJ 45 NNW RWI 15 N NHK 25 NNW SBY 30 NE SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA...ANALYZED AT 500 MB FROM NRN PORTION SASK/ALTA BORDER SSWWD ACROSS SRN CA. EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN ALTA AND OVER NV. LATTER CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG ESEWD TOWARD WRN UT WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN SIERRAS AND LAS AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FCST TO INCREASE OVER NRN PLAINS AS HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ALTA LOW. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT E OF ROCKIES. FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ONT/MB BORDER SWWD ACROSS ERN ND...CENTRAL SD AND SERN WY...THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN NV. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN AZ...W-CENTRAL CO AND NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH PERIOD...AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER NE. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY RESULT FROM COMBINATION OF NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNALLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS 50S TO NEAR 60 F AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/E OF FRONT FROM ERN ND TO WRN NEB. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR. THIS MAY AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS. ANY TSTMS WHICH DO FORM WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIABATIC HEATING AND SHOULD DIMINISH/DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER DARK. ...ERN FL... COUNTERBALANCING FACTORS PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL RISK FOR TORNADOES ATTM...THOUGH AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD BEGIN NEAR E-CENTRAL FL COAST AND SPREAD NWWD DURING LATTER HALF OF FCST PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH HURRICANE FRANCES IS NOT FCST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG E COAST OF FL UNTIL DAY-2...EXPANSIVE ENVELOPE OF ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PROGRESSIVELY MORE OF ERN/SRN FL THROUGHOUT DAY-1. DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY WITH APCH OF THIS HURRICANE...THOUGH MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR OF FLOW/SHEAR NNW-ESE OF CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. ALSO...NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES THAT COULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...WHETHER ORIGINATING SYNOPTICALLY OR FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/COOLING PROCESSES. IN A BROAD SENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE OFFSHORE AND NEAR COAST AFTER DARK WITH 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE BY 04/06Z-12Z TIME FRAME...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS IN OUTER BANDS. CAPE...HOWEVER...WILL BE QUITE SMALL GIVEN TIME OF NIGHT AND LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING TO ENHANCE BUOYANCY. REF NHC ADVISORIES -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS AND TRACK/INTENSITY PREDICTIONS OF FRANCES. ...AZ... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION BEING GENERALLY SHALLOWER AND HIGHER BASED WITH NWD EXTENT WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME...THOUGH HORIZONTAL JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS IN DOUBT ATTM. MAIN PROBLEM ATTM IS HOW ROBUSTLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NWD INTO AREA FROM SONORA AND CO RIVER DELTA REGION...WHERE LATEST SFC OBS SHOW 70S F DEW POINTS FROM YUM-HERMOSILLO. MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER S-CENTRAL AZ AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR. FARTHER N INVOF FLG...40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEARS ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 16:38:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 11:38:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409031639.i83GdZG18621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031637 SWODY1 SPC AC 031633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE PHX 55 NNW GBN 30 SE IGM 20 WNW GCN 15 NW PGA 15 W 4BL CEZ 30 SSW FMN 40 S GUP 25 NW SAD 35 SSE PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW YUM 20 N BLH 30 N EED 40 ENE LAS 30 NNW LAS 60 NE DAG 10 NE NID 25 SSE BIH 60 NW TPH 50 SSW EKO 55 SSE TWF 25 WSW PIH 35 NW JAC 40 SW COD 25 WNW WRL 25 NE WRL 25 ENE SHR 15 ESE GDV 50 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DRT 10 W TPL 35 SE MLC 35 SW HRO 25 SSW TBN 25 E ALN DEC 40 W CGX 25 SSE MKE 50 SW HTL 25 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NNW ANJ 25 SW ELO 45 N BRD BKX BBW 25 WNW MCK 50 E LIC 20 WSW LHX 50 WSW CAO 35 SE LVS 30 E ONM 40 SSE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ERI 10 SSE PIT 10 SE CRW 30 SSE TRI 15 NW AHN 55 ESE MCN 25 N SAV 30 SSE FLO 35 WNW OAJ 45 NNW RWI 45 N RIC 25 NNW SBY 30 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW EPM 30 NE AUG 15 SSW MWN 20 SSW MPV 25 SE SLK 10 E MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ AND SRN UT/SW CO/NW NM... ...SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN NV EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY E AROUND BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND SHOULD REACH WRN UT BY 12Z SATURDAY. SMALLER SCALE VORT SHOWN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING SWD ACROSS OVER CNTRL CA ATTM SUGGESTS THAT NV SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN/BECOME MORE CLOSED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. FARTHER N...SEPARATE CLOSED SYSTEM IN SE AB SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA IN SE QUADRANT OF SYSTEM MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS WY/ERN MT/ND INTO SASKATCHEWAN/ MANITOBA. OVER THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MODULATED BY PATH/INTENSITY/SPEED OF HRCN FRANCES. SEE TPC PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. ...S CNTRL AZ INTO SRN/ERN UT AND WRN CO... THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN DESERTS AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES AHEAD OF E/SE MOVING NV SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MORNING RAOBS SHOW RATHER SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PWS AOA 1 INCH/ SPREADING NNE/NE FROM THE LWR CO VLY REGION INTO CNTRL AZ. STRONG HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS AZ TODAY...N/NNEWD INTO SRN/ERN UT...WRN CO AND NW NM AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN HOWARD REMAIN FARTHER S AND E. AREA VWP DATA SHOW 700 MB SWLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AZ ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS. THESE SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS NV IMPULSE CONTINUES E/SEWD. COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE MTNS...AND SOME DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NV DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN AZ. SUFFICIENT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO STRONG CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. FARTHER NE...A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO SRN AND ERN UT/WRN CO AND NW NM....WHERE STRONGER BUT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD COUPLED WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR BOWING ELEMENTS WITH HIGH WIND. ...CNTRL HI PLNS TO DAKS... SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED FROM NE CO/SE WY NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKS AND NW MN LATER TODAY...WHERE ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL PERSIST ALONG AND TO THE W OF NE/SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AB UPPER TROUGH. COMBINATION OF MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPES TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. WITH DEEP WIND PROFILES STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO PASSING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA...STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED INTO BANDS...WITH A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER DARK. ...ERN FL... A LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE FL E CST...AS OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HRCN FRANCES GLANCE REGION. BUT WEAK CAPE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORM SUGGEST THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MINIMAL. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 3 20:04:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 15:04:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409032005.i83K5BG07602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032001 SWODY1 SPC AC 031957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PHX 40 S PRC 30 NW PRC 20 NNW GCN 20 W PGA 25 WNW U17 30 ENE CNY 15 NNE GJT 35 N MTJ DRO 45 E SOW 50 SSW SOW 45 E PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 10 SSW IGM 35 NNW IGM 20 ESE LAS 65 NE DAG 20 ENE NID 55 NNW NID 15 WNW BIH 35 SW U31 35 SE EKO 20 E JAC 35 W MLS 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT BWD 30 E FYV 10 NNE ALN 40 S CGX 25 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 30 SW ROC 25 SE HLG 35 WSW AVL 20 WSW AHN 40 SE AHN 25 W CAE 20 SE GSO 30 WSW NHK 15 SSE EWR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM 30 NW BGR 25 NNE PBG 40 NNE ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 50 W IWD 10 WSW FOD 15 NNW CNK 40 NW LBL 40 N TCC 20 W 4CR 25 E DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...SE UT AND WRN CO... ...AZ/FOUR CORNERS... A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US. A BAND OF STRONG-LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PRESENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN CO...UT AND NWRN AZ AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO SRN UT AND WRN AZ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40 DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS FAR NRN AZ...SE UT AND WRN CO. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR CNTRL AZ. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS CONSIDERING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXCEED 8.0 C/KM OVER MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS A LARGE-CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION REACHING ERN AZ LATE TONIGHT. ...DAKOTAS/HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM NE ND EXTENDING SWWD INTO SCNTRL WY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT SFC HEATING SHOULD CAUSE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP INITIATE STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS FAR NW NEB...CNTRL SD AND ERN ND. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN US TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ERN FL... HURRICANE FRANCES WILL APPROACH THE FL COAST TONIGHT. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASES. IF A TORNADO THREAT MATERIALIZES...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ROTATING CELLS THAT COME ONSHORE EMBEDDED IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS. ..BROYLES.. 09/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 00:53:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 19:53:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409040054.i840s5G10577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040052 SWODY1 SPC AC 040048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 25 SW HIB 25 NE AXN 65 W YKN 30 WSW MCK 40 N TCC 20 W 4CR 35 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 75 NW GBN 20 NNW IGM 20 ESE LAS 65 NE DAG 20 ENE NID 55 NNW NID 15 WNW BIH 35 SW U31 35 SE EKO 35 SSE JAC 55 NNE SHR 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT 20 NW AUS 35 NNW ELD 35 SSE CGI 25 S DNV 25 S ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 20 S LBE 15 NW BLF 15 N ATL 30 E CEW 20 ENE AQQ 20 NNE CTY 20 W SAV 35 N CHS 35 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W EPM 30 NNW BML. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WITH TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION REFLECT A WARM ADVECTION REGIME THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR MID LEVEL CONVECTION TO THE W-N OF THE WIND SHIFT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN...AND SEEMS RATHER REMOTE...WHETHER BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL BE FORCED TO THEIR LFC ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. IF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ...AZ... STRENGTHENING UPPER SPEED MAX ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY DRY PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED STRONG/HIGH BASED MULTI-CELLS...OR PERHAPS A WEAK SUPERCELL WILL SPREAD ACROSS ECNTRL AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 05:41:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 00:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409040543.i845h6G09217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040541 SWODY1 SPC AC 040536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PBI 40 S AGR 40 NW AGR 30 SE GNV 20 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT 25 S UMN 10 NNE ALN 25 NNE BMI RFD 20 N DBQ 30 SSW ALO 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 10 ENE CNM 60 WNW MRF ...CONT... YUM 60 NW GBN 50 SW GCN 25 ENE SGU 45 WNW MLF 15 SE ENV 25 NW MLD 20 WSW JAC 35 SSE COD 50 SW GCC 60 NW CDR 20 WSW PHP 35 SSW JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 20 NW ART 35 N GFL 15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 20 NE NEL 30 NNW ILG 10 S CRW 55 NW CHA 10 E MEI 25 NNE BVE ...CONT... 15 ENE AQQ 35 NNE ABY 45 NNW AGS 20 NNE RDU 35 SSW WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL ROTATE INLAND AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE LANDFALL AND THE WWD MOTION...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD BE FOR MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...DOWNSTREAM SFC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-36HRS EXTENDING FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS NEB INTO NERN CO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ZONE SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THUS SLOWING SFC HEATING FOR POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING FROM WRN KS INTO SWRN MN FAVORS AN INCREASING BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS IF ACTIVITY CAN EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 12:59:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 07:59:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041301.i84D0xG14538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041256 SWODY1 SPC AC 041252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 45 W ABE 20 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 NNW ART 35 N GFL PSM ...CONT... 30 NE IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS CNM 60 WNW MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 55 ESE YUM 40 NW GBN 50 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 35 ESE ENV MLD JAC WRL 50 SW GCC 70 NW CDR 30 NW PHP 40 ESE BIS 75 N GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH AND RIDGE FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CYCLONE ALOFT - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UT -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD AND MOVE ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS WRN CO -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH ABOUT 05/06Z...FOLLOWED BY SOME EWD DRIFT THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE...BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE E-CENTRAL FL COASTLINE LATE IN PERIOD. REF LATEST NHC STATEMENTS -- I.E. WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC -- FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. ...FL PENINSULA... HURRICANE-SPAWNED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ACROSS AREA THROUGH PERIOD...AS MORE OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IMPINGES UPON AREA. SECTOR CONTAINING MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- GENERALLY NNW-ESE OF CENTER -- SHOULD SPREAD WNWWD OVER AREA. EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS NEAREST TO VORTEX CENTER. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUPERCELL/TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR PERIPHERY OF CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE -- OVER CENTRAL FL...BECAUSE OF 1. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED SBCAPE AWAY FROM MOST DENSE CLOUD/PRECIP CANOPY... 2. MORE DISTINCT/DISCRETE CHARACTER OF CELLS EXPECTED WITHIN OUTER BANDS... 3. SOMEWHAT LESS VERTICAL UNIFORMITY OF WINDS AND LARGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH DISTANCE FROM CENTER OF HURRICANE...YIELDING FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS...AND 4. GRADIENT OF MIDTROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN DRIER TBW/JAX RAOBS AND NEARLY SATURATED MFL SOUNDING...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FL MOST OF PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AREA... FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SERVE AS MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS THROUGH PERIOD. INITIALLY ELEVATED TSTMS BEHIND FRONT THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DIABATIC HEATING AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATED SFC MOISTURE IN WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY...AND CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR FRONT. MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED LBF RAOB AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST INTENSE CELLS. ...NRN AZ...4-CORNERS REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING IN AREA OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...E THROUGH S OF STRONG UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA MAY INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING RAISES MLCAPES TO 300-800 J/KG RANGE. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH PERIOD...ADVECTED NEWD FROM WEAKENING REMAINS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE HOWARD. MORNING FLG RAOB INDICATES FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BENEATH 50 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 16:33:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 11:33:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041635.i84GZAG22234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041632 SWODY1 SPC AC 041628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PHX 40 SSE PRC 30 NE INW 15 NW FMN 40 ENE DRO 25 S ALS 35 NNE SAF 15 SE ABQ 40 N SAD 15 NE PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ART 35 N GFL PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 40 WNW FST 90 S MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 N SYR 45 ENE UCA 30 SE GFL EWR 30 WNW ABE 10 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 20 N GBN 55 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 25 NNE ENV 35 NNE BYI 30 NE IDA 20 WSW WRL 50 SW GCC 20 E 81V 25 WSW Y22 40 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ/NW NM AND SW CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW NOW OVER W CNTRL UT EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E INTO CNTRL/ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST CONTINUES E/SE INTO SRN BC. FARTHER E...BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG SSW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD IN MANITOBA...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM UT/CO TROUGH. OVER THE SOUTHEAST... PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HRCN FRANCES. THE TPC FCSTS FRANCES TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WNW MOTION...WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO... BELT OF STRONG /50+ KT/ MID LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM NRN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS AND CONTINUES EWD. AREA SOUNDINGS/SURFACE DATA AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO...WHERE AVERAGE PWS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH. EWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS TO OVERSPREAD REGION...WITH THE 500 MB MINUS 10 C ISOTHERM CURVING S INTO THE RIM COUNTRY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50+ KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE ACROSS REGION TO AOA 500 J/KG. BUT HEATING WILL BE DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ...ESPECIALLY IN SW CO AND NW NM. IN ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM T.S. HOWARD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN/AZ. TAKEN IN SUMMARY...EXPECT A FEW BANDS OF SUSTAINED/OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ...CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW MN INTO NE CO EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 1000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AMPLE /30-40 KT/ SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM SW NEB NEWD INTO CNTRL SD. A FEW STORM/STORM CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY AFFECT THIS AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. FARTHER N...ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CELLS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM WRN NEB/SD INTO ND/NW MN. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR HRCN-RELATED TORNADOES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS PERIOD AS FRANCES CONTINUES SLOWLY WNWWD. THE NNW TO ESE SECTOR OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WILL NOT REACH THE COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME... CONVECTION ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION THROUGH THE DAY. HEATING OF INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL MAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATE CAPE TO BOLSTER THIS THREAT. BUT SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF COMPARATIVELY DRY OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY INNER CIRCULATION OF VORTEX AS IT MOVES ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 17:03:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 12:03:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041704.i84H4RG00391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041702 SWODY1 SPC AC 041658 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI AGR 40 WNW ORL 25 ESE GNV 40 SE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE PHX 40 SSE PRC 30 NE INW 15 NW FMN 40 ENE DRO 25 S ALS 35 NNE SAF 15 SE ABQ 40 N SAD 15 NE PHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 20 N GBN 55 SW GCN CDC 55 ESE ELY 25 NNE ENV 35 NNE BYI 30 NE IDA 20 WSW WRL 50 SW GCC 20 E 81V 25 WSW Y22 40 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 30 NE IWD EAU MCW CNK 25 E LBL 25 SE CVS 40 WNW FST 90 S MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 ESE ADM 25 SSE UMN 20 S SGF 10 SW STL 30 NNW DNV 20 NW BEH 40 SSE MBL 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 25 N SYR 45 ENE UCA 30 SE GFL EWR 30 WNW ABE 10 S AOO 35 SSW CRW 20 NE CHA 25 W ANB 25 NW CEW MAI 25 NNW CAE 20 N RWI 15 NE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AZ/NW NM AND SW CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... CLOSED LOW NOW OVER W CNTRL UT EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE E INTO CNTRL/ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE BC CST CONTINUES E/SE INTO SRN BC. FARTHER E...BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG SSW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLNS SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD IN MANITOBA...AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM UT/CO TROUGH. OVER THE SOUTHEAST... PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY HRCN FRANCES. THE TPC FCSTS FRANCES TO MAINTAIN A SLOW WNW MOTION...WITH LANDFALL POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO... BELT OF STRONG /50+ KT/ MID LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM NRN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO LATER TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS AND CONTINUES EWD. AREA SOUNDINGS/SURFACE DATA AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS FROM CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO NW NM/SW CO...WHERE AVERAGE PWS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH. EWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM HAS ALSO ALLOWED COOLER AIR AT MID LEVELS TO OVERSPREAD REGION...WITH THE 500 MB MINUS 10 C ISOTHERM CURVING S INTO THE RIM COUNTRY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH 50+ KT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...MAY PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION IN A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE ACROSS REGION TO AOA 500 J/KG. BUT HEATING WILL BE DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ...ESPECIALLY IN SW CO AND NW NM. IN ADDITION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM T.S. HOWARD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN AZ. TAKEN IN SUMMARY...EXPECT A FEW BANDS OF SUSTAINED/OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ...CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW MN INTO NE CO EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS MLCAPE INCREASES TO AOA 1000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA...AMPLE /30-40 KT/ SHEAR WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM SW NEB NEWD INTO CNTRL SD. A FEW STORM/STORM CLUSTERS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY AFFECT THIS AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. FARTHER N...ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CELLS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM WRN NEB/SD INTO ND/NW MN. ...FL... POTENTIAL FOR HRCN-RELATED TORNADOES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS PERIOD AS FRANCES CONTINUES SLOWLY WNWWD. THE NNW TO ESE SECTOR OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WILL NOT REACH THE COAST UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME... CONVECTION ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS ON THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION THROUGH THE DAY. HEATING OF INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL MAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATE CAPE TO BOLSTER THIS THREAT. BUT SATELLITE/RADAR AND SURFACE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF COMPARATIVELY DRY OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WHICH WOULD TEND TO OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY INNER CIRCULATION OF VORTEX AS IT MOVES ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 4 19:55:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 14:55:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409041956.i84JuJG30184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041953 SWODY1 SPC AC 041949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MIA 55 E FMY 35 N FMY 35 ENE PIE 30 SE GNV 45 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE SAD 55 WNW SAD 60 ENE PHX 30 SW INW 35 NNE INW 15 WSW DRO 50 E DRO 50 S ALS 15 ENE SAF 15 SE ABQ 45 NNE SAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CMX 25 NW EAU 45 SW FOD 25 SSW CNK 25 E LBL 40 ESE CVS 50 WSW INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 10 SSW DRT 35 ESE SJT 35 N BWD 20 E ADM 10 SSW UMN 35 E UIN 30 NE MKE 40 N TVC 40 SSE ANJ 80 NE APN ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 35 NNE UCA 40 W ALB 20 NNE MSV 20 N ABE 30 NNW BWI 40 W SHD 20 WSW BLF 30 NNE TYS 10 S HSV 25 SW TCL 60 SE MEI 35 N PNS 35 SW DHN 40 WSW ABY 55 SW AGS 35 WSW FLO 15 ESE GSB 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 35 WSW GBN 55 WSW PRC 25 WSW GCN 20 W BCE 55 E ELY 15 SW ENV 35 SE BYI 45 SE IDA 35 WNW LND 50 E RIW 15 SSE GCC 45 NNE BIS 65 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AZ AND NW NM... ...CNTRL AND ERN FL... HURRICANE FRANCES IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH FL. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING NWWD REACHING THE IMMEDIATE FL COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE VERY HEAVY RAINBANDS NWWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN FL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB HAS INCREASED TODAY AND WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE SHORELINE. AS A RESULT...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE ROTATING STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVY RAINBANDS AND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE AS CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE SWD. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS FL LATE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. ...ERN AZ/NW NM... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OF 60 KT...LOCATED ACROSS NE AZ AND SW CO. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN AZ AND NWRN NM. AT ABQ...THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT 19Z SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 KT. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 750 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES EWD REACHING SCNTRL CO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...DAKOTAS... A LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM FAR NW MN TO CNTRL SD. BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DIURNAL HEATING AND MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 250 TO 500 J/KG. AND THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..BROYLES.. 09/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 5 01:05:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Sep 2004 20:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409050106.i8516aG31710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050104 SWODY1 SPC AC 050100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 20 ESE VLD 10 SSE SSI ...CONT... 15 ENE MIA 45 W MIA 40 S FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 50 SE PHX 30 WSW INW 25 SW PGA 20 W BCE 40 WSW U24 50 NNW DPG MLD 30 W JAC 50 S COD 35 SSW GCC 45 NW PHP 40 SE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 85 NW CMX 30 NW EAU 45 WSW FOD 25 SSW CNK 20 S GCK 35 W PVW 20 ESE INK 90 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 15 W AUS 55 E ACT 35 SSE PRX 40 SSW HOT 35 SSE PBF 40 ESE MLU 15 ESE HEZ 30 S GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN ABY 40 SSE AGS FLO 10 NNW OAJ 30 ESE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL PENINSULA... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED 40 NE PBI AT 0030Z...AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATED A SLOW WWD MOVEMENT. TPC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN TRACK W/WNWWD TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 12Z SUNDAY. TROPICAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITHIN THE EYEWALL... ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN STRONG /0-1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT/ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SUPPORTING THE TORNADO THREAT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO NWRN MN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO REACH ERN CO BY 12Z SUNDAY. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN SWWD ACROSS NRN NEB TO ERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM NERN CO NEWD TO ERN SD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC. GIVEN THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DECREASE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NEB/SD OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ENEWD SUPPORTING A COUPLED MID-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40 KT NOSING INTO NEB/SD. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO SD...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUPPORTING ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 09/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 01:04:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Sep 2004 20:04:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409060106.i86164G00806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060102 SWODY1 SPC AC 060058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB 20 NNW AGR 15 NW PIE ...CONT... 10 SW PFN 30 NE DHN 40 NNE ABY 55 N AYS 20 ESE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CNU 25 E MHK 20 ESE BIE 20 WSW OMA 30 ESE YKN 25 ESE MHE 20 ENE HON 50 NNE ATY 15 SSW BRD 55 SSE DLH 30 SE EAU 35 NNW DBQ 40 NE IRK 55 SSW IRK 15 ESE OJC 40 N CNU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 20 SW MAF 40 E PVW 60 SW GAG 30 SE DDC 55 N RSL 10 WNW GRI 65 NNE BUB 45 WSW 9V9 40 N PIR 45 NE MBG 25 W RRT ...CONT... 40 SE ANJ 15 NW MKG 20 NW CMI 15 N JBR 30 N ESF 40 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PNS 30 NNE TOI 40 NW MCN 20 SW CAE FAY 20 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL AND SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WHILE T.S. FRANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTEND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER SERN SD SWD THRU ERN NE AND CENTRAL KS...THROUGH A LOW OVER NWRN OK...THEN SWWD ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM. ...FLORIDA AND SRN GA... SEE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM NHC/TPC ON T.S. FRANCES. FORECASTS INDICATE THAT CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES WILL TURN TO THE RIGHT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE PLACING FAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL MN SWD THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND NWRN MO INTO S CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 6.0C/KM. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-55 KT EXTENDS FROM ERN KS NWD INTO E CENTRAL MN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO E CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI. COMBINE THIS WITH MID LEVEL SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 60-65 KT AND A SWLY 95-105 UPPER LEVEL JET PLACES STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO VERY DIVERGENT FROM MO INTO MN ENHANCING UVVS SUPPORTING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WRN AREAS OF WI OVERNIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/NERN MN BY 06/12Z. THUS...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NERN MN SWD THROUGH ERN IA INTO SWRN MO AND S CENTRAL OK BY 12Z. STRONG WINDS MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS PARALLEL LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE MN/CANADA BORDER. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 05:13:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 00:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409060515.i865FJG19081@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060513 SWODY1 SPC AC 060509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 25 SE GNV 30 S CTY ...CONT... PFN 35 NE CEW 10 ESE AUO 50 ENE MCN 35 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 30 NE FST 35 W ABI 55 NW MLC 50 S SZL 30 SW BRL 40 E ALO 30 ENE RST 65 NNW EAU 55 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 ENE CLE 25 WNW LUK 20 NW HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL 25 NNE LUL 10 NW TCL 10 WNW ANB 40 WNW AHN 20 SSW CLT 20 N RDU 35 NE RIC 30 SSE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND STRONG ZONAL TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. MEANWHILE...T.S. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE...THEN TURN NWD INTO SERN AL BY 04/12Z. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC/TPC FOR LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. ...PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN FL INTO SRN GA... AS THE CENTER OF T.S. FRANCES MOVES ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO THEN TURNS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...FAVORABLE FORWARD QUADRANT FOR BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN FL INTO PARTS OF SRN GA AND EXTREME SRN SC. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN UPPER MI SWD THRU CENTRAL WI...NERN MO AND S CENTRAL OK SWWD INTO EXTREME W TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AIR MASS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES EWD AND NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY 06/12Z. LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT WILL LIFT NWD INTO SERN ONTARIO AS WELL AS 90-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THUS...BETTER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAVE LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ONLY SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS/DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 12:26:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 07:26:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409061227.i86CRYG19379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061225 SWODY1 SPC AC 061221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S AQQ 40 E TOI 10 NE CSG 55 WSW AGS 20 ESE CHS ...CONT... 40 SE DAB 10 ESE AGR 20 W FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4 ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF FST 10 E ABI MKO JEF BRL LNR 50 SW IWD 95 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL MEI TCL ANB 40 WNW AHN CLT LYH 25 SSW NHK 30 SSE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL...GA...SERN AL...EXTREME SRN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS FCST AS UPPER LOW NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NRN MN/NWRN ONT MERGES WITH LOW OVER MANITOBA...THEN PIVOTS EWD-NEWD OVER FAR NWRN ONT. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN WI/ERN IA SWWD ACROSS MO AND SWRN OK -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES...SEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...AND SWD OVER MUCH OF TX...AS PARENT CYCLONE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT. MEANWHILE TS FRANCES DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS SERN CONUS. ...SERN CONUS... TS FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NWWD ACROSS APALACHEE BAY TOWARD LANDFALL CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...REF LATEST NHC GUIDANCE UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS. OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF/SMALL TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR EXTENDING SE THROUGH N OF CENTER -- PRIMARILY IN MIDDLE-OUTER BANDS WHERE DIABATIC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DIURNAL BOOST IN SBCAPE WILL BE GREATEST. 150-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL LAYER POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF LARGEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES...ALONG WITH LOW LCL AND MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG. REF WWS 803/804 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION REGARDING TORNADO THREAT WITH TS FRANCES. ...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT TODAY...FROM PORTIONS ERN WI/LM/IL/UPPER MI SWD THROUGH INDIANA. BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL -- AS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT COUNTERACT EFFECTS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS LIFTING WELL N AND NW OF AREA BUT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING GUSTS...MAINLY BEFORE 00Z. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 16:30:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 11:30:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409061631.i86GVKG28153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061629 SWODY1 SPC AC 061625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 25 E DHN 25 E CSG 50 WSW AGS 15 E CRE ...CONT... 40 SE DAB 25 NNE AGR 20 SE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF FST 10 E ABI MKO JEF BRL LNR 50 SW IWD 95 NW CMX ...CONT... 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL MEI 25 SE CBM 35 N BHM 20 ESE CHA 35 WSW HSS LYH 15 SE BWI 15 SSE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL FL NWD ACROSS S GA TO COASTAL SC THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...FL/GA/SC AREA... TROPICAL STORM FRANCES IS MOVING NNWWD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL S OF TLH BY EARLY AFTERNOON /SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 50-60 KT SELY FLOW 1-2 KM AGL OVER THE NRN HALF OF FL/S GA/SRN SC...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 ACROSS AREAS N THROUGH E OF THE CENTER OF FRANCES. MODEST BUOYANCY /MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ AND MOIST PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE GA AND SRN SC COASTS WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTER ERN/SERN CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL...GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT GREATER BUOYANCY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NW IL/ERN WI/WRN UPPER MI AS OF MID MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ARE SPREADING NWD IN A NARROW PLUME E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN IL TO WRN LOWER MI...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST PROFILES AND FOCUSED ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS...THE WEAK INSTABILITY WARRANTS ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 6 19:59:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Sep 2004 14:59:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409062000.i86K0aG30018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061956 SWODY1 SPC AC 061952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AQQ 25 E DHN 40 WNW MCN 45 E AHN 15 E CRE ...CONT... 15 SE MLB 25 WSW VRB 15 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 45 WNW P07 65 W JCT 45 NW SAT 50 NNE CLL 30 SSE TXK 55 NE LIT 20 NE POF 10 W MTO 15 SSE CGX 35 SW MBL 40 ESE MQT 120 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 20 ENE CLE LUK HOP 35 SSE GLH 35 SW HEZ 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT 35 S LUL MEI 20 WNW TCL 25 S HSV 20 NNE CHA 30 NW HSS 35 E SSU 15 SSE BWI 15 SSE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN GA...SERN SC... AND CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL... ...SERN U.S.... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES HAS MOVED INLAND JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE. THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING NWWD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE NLY MOTION TODAY. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PERSISTS E AND NE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA CONTAINING THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THEREFORE...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS THEN NWWD TO ALONG AND INLAND OF THE GA AND SC COASTS. FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER TONIGHT. OVERALL THREAT MAY UNDERGO SOME DECREASE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND SC. ...UPPER AND LOWER MI... LINES OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...MUCH OF WHICH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING...HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE CNTRL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI SWD ACROSS WRN LOWER MI AND INTO NW IND ALONG AND E OF A COLD FRONT. DESPITE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED /SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POOR LAPSE RATES. STORMS NOW DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI LIFTS NEWD INTO SRN CANADA THIS EVENING...THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH A RESULTING DECREASE IN FORCING/CONVERGENCE. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY/POOR LAPSE RATES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING TO LIFT N OF THIS AREA WITH TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 09/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 12:31:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 07:31:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409071232.i87CWxG28875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071230 SWODY1 SPC AC 071225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ENE AQQ 35 NNE DHN 20 SSW RMG 40 ESE CHA 20 WSW AVL 20 ENE FAY 45 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N HUL 15 N LCI 25 NW ALB 25 NNE CXY 25 SSE HGR 15 N NHK 25 ESE DOV 20 S NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ATY 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW ANW 25 NNW IML 20 SSE AKO 20 SSE FCL 30 NNW CYS 10 NNW GCC 65 W MLS 20 NW GDV 60 SSW FAR 50 ENE ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N YUM 35 SSE PHX 45 SW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 25 E CLL 30 SSW ELD 30 N HEZ 30 ESE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 25 W TOI 25 NNE CBM 30 NNE DYR 30 ENE MVN 30 WSW MIE 25 S DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF T.D. FRANCES CIRCULATION NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER N OF DHN. NHC GUIDANCE AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SLOW NWD TRACK WITH CIRCULATION CENTER EXPECTED OVER NWRN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG THE GA/SC COASTS INLAND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT REGION AND APPALACHIANS. CO-LOCATION OF THIS INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-350 M2/S2/ IN ERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALONG/SLIGHTLY N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS SRN NC. OTHER REGION OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CIRCULATION CENTER OVER PARTS OF THE ERN FL PNHDL/NRN PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL GA. HERE...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WRN EDGE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE WW 808 AND ANY ASSOCIATED MCD/S. ...NRN PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT...INDUCING WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT /ESPECIALLY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ/ AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 15:32:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 10:32:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409071533.i87FXOG30749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071530 SWODY1 SPC AC 071526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N DAB 45 N PIE ...CONT... 20 WSW CTY AYS 20 N AHN 30 NNW AND 20 NNW CLT 30 WSW GSB 35 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 25 NW LGC 50 WSW AVL 15 NNE HSS 35 NW TYS 10 SSE HSV 45 SSW MSL 20 NNE TUP 30 NNE DYR 30 NNW EVV 25 E TOL ...CONT... 15 N HUL 15 N LCI 40 ESE UCA 25 NNE CXY 25 SSE HGR 15 N NHK 15 NNE DOV 15 NW ISP 15 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE ATY 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW ANW 25 NNW IML 20 SSE AKO 20 SSE FCL 30 NNW CYS 10 NNW GCC 65 W MLS 20 NW GDV 60 SSW FAR 50 ENE ATY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 25 NE YUM 30 SSE PHX 30 ENE TUS 10 WSW DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LRD 55 E CLL 35 SW SHV 35 SSE MLU 40 W BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM N FL NWD TO SRN NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... ASIDE FROM THE SE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANCES...A RATHER BENIGN CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS EXTENDS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE PAC NW TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER WA AND UPPER MI. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WRN AND NRN CONUS IS RELATIVELY STABLE/DRY. ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE SRN AZ BORDER ON THE FRINGE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME...ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA...AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. ...SE ATLANTIC STATES... THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM W CENTRAL GA INTO N GA BY TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD. A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND OF 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 1-4 KM AGL LAYER WILL PERSIST FROM N FL ACROSS ERN GA AND SC...TO THE E/NE OF THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CENTER. MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST L0W-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST FROM FL NWD TO SC...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG L0W-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CORRIDOR FROM CAE TO FLO WHERE DISCRETE STORMS INTERACT WITH AN E-W SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 7 19:37:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 14:37:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409071938.i87JcbG03528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071936 SWODY1 SPC AC 071931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 30 NW AYS 15 NW AND 20 W HKY 40 WSW GSO 20 NW GSB 35 SE EWN ...CONT... DAB 15 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 E YUM 45 ESE GBN TUS 15 S FHU ...CONT... 35 SSE LRD 35 NNW VCT 50 NW BPT 25 N LCH 15 SSW 7R4 ...CONT... 15 WNW PFN 35 NE DHN 10 WNW LGC 10 N RMG 40 ENE CHA 20 NNE HSS 35 SSW BLF 10 NNW BLF 30 SSW CRW 25 NW 5I3 20 NNE LOZ 50 ESE BWG 25 ESE CKV 40 N HOP 45 WSW DAY 20 WSW CLE ...CONT... 15 N HUL 25 ESE MPV 40 ESE UCA 30 NNW CXY 20 E MRB 15 N NHK 15 NE DOV 10 W BDR 15 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ATY 30 NNW YKN 25 NNE MHN 30 W MHN 20 SSE AKO 10 NE FCL 25 NNE LAR 10 NNW GCC 40 S MLS 20 ESE GDV 50 SSE JMS 30 NNW ATY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...NRN FL/SOUTHEAST... OTHER THAN A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AROUND THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF T.D. FRANCES...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST ALMOST STEADY-STATE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM NRN FL/ERN GA ACROSS SC AND SRN/CNTRL NC INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP DATA FROM ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND DIRECTION VEERING STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250-500 M2/S2. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITHIN CONFLUENT FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EMBEDDED CELLULAR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...SOME OF THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ROTATION AND OCCASIONALLY SPAWN TORNADOES. CONSULT SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND TORNADO WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM FORECAST INFO. ..CARBIN.. 09/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 00:55:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 07 Sep 2004 19:55:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409080056.i880ukG25954@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080054 SWODY1 SPC AC 080050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 N PIE ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 30 NW AYS 55 SSE TYS 20 S HSS 20 ESE GSO 15 NNW GSB 40 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PFN 35 NE DHN 10 WNW LGC 10 N RMG 40 SSW TYS 25 E TYS 40 N TYS 20 N CSV 35 SE BNA 30 W BNA 40 N HOP 30 SSE MIE 20 WSW CLE ...CONT... 15 N HUL 25 ESE MPV 40 WSW ALB 20 NW AVP 25 NNE CXY 15 NNE ILG 25 NNE TTN 20 NW BDR 15 ENE HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W AXN 25 SSE FSD 45 N BUB 15 NNW LBF 20 SSE AKO 10 NE FCL 25 NNE LAR 10 NNW GCC 40 S MLS 20 ESE GDV 25 SSW FAR 50 W AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 E YUM 45 ESE GBN 20 E TUS 15 S FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LRD 35 NNW VCT 50 NW BPT 40 WNW LFT 20 S 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL... ...CAROLINAS SWD TO NRN FL... AT 00Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GA /40 SE ATL/. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW NEWD TRACK INTO NRN GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE WILL BE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF FRANCES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...AREA 00Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ARE AND WILL REMAIN AT 250-400 M2/S2 FROM CENTRAL NC SWD TO ERN GA...WITH 150-200 M2/S2 LIKELY SWD ACROSS NRN FL. ...NWRN NEB/PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NRN WY...WITH THIS TROUGH LOCATED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN WY ENEWD ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER. GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS /GENERALLY IN THE 40S/ ACROSS THIS REGION...A DECREASING TREND FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 40-45 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WAA REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SD. 250-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED ON THE EAST BY WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT A VEERING LLJ TOWARD 12Z WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD INTO ERN SD. ..PETERS.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 05:58:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 00:58:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409080559.i885xLG09424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080556 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SSI 20 NNE AYS 35 SE AGS 35 WNW CAE 20 ENE SPA 10 SSE HKY 40 WNW DAN 20 SSE SHD 35 SSE MRB 30 S CXY PHL 10 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 40 SSW AGS 25 SE AND 15 N CSV 35 WSW LEX 20 SSE DAY 20 ENE CLE ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 15 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW SUX 50 ESE GLD 35 SE LAA 10 N PUB 25 NE CYS 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 45 SW MLS 10 SSW OLF 35 NNE ISN 50 E P24 30 S AXN 15 NNE OTG 35 SSW SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 25 SSE RAL 30 WSW PMD 20 WNW EDW 35 N DAG 25 WSW EED 40 NE BLH 50 E BLH 25 WSW GBN 80 WSW TUS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FRANCES AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM FAR NRN GA TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...MAINLY EARLY...WHERE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS/VEERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA/SWRN AZ AS SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. ...SERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... AS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MOVES NNEWD...A BAND OF 35-45 SSWLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA TODAY TO ERN VA/DELMARVA AREA BY THIS EVENING. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA TO PA. MEANWHILE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CENTRAL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC/VA AND DELMARVA WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUATION OF NWD MOVING CONFLUENT CONVECTIVE BANDS. ALTHOUGH T.D. FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES /0-3 KM SRH AT 150-250 M2/S2/ WITHIN THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE COMBINED WITH MOIST TROPICAL PROFILES /I.E. LOW LCLS/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-ERN SC/NC/SRN VA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS ALSO SUPPORT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA /SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER NRN FL ON TUESDAY/...WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES BEING SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 12:32:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 07:32:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409081233.i88CXsG11027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081231 SWODY1 SPC AC 081226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CHS 30 ESE CAE 20 NNE CAE 30 E SPA 15 WNW HKY 35 SSW BLF 20 SW SSU 25 WNW SHD 20 S MRB 10 NNE BWI 15 WNW DOV 30 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N BML 15 NNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAN 25 SW RAL 25 E OXR 35 WNW PMD 20 SSE NID 15 NNW SGU 35 WNW PGA 55 NNE INW 65 SSW SOW 10 WNW DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TLH 35 NNW AYS 15 S AGS 45 SSE TYS 45 N CSV 10 NW LEX 20 SSE DAY 20 ENE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BUB 10 ENE MCK 25 SE LAA LHX 15 E AKO 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 35 SW BIL 20 WNW GGW 25 NE ISN 40 W DVL 40 SW STC 25 SSW FRM 25 ENE BUB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... REMNANT T.D. FRANCES CIRCULATION OVER ERN TN/WRN NC AS OF 11Z IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO SWRN PA BY THURSDAY MORNING. VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG/ WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE LOW TRACK TODAY...TO THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD ACROSS NRN NC/SRN VA AND NE OF COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL GA. REGIONAL VWPS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SLY 40-50 KT 850-500 MB WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING FROM SRN GA INTO CNTRL VA. DESPITE LARGELY MERIDIONAL... UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...LOCAL BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS E OF CIRCULATION CENTER COUPLED WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEED JUST OFF THE GROUND IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLY STRONG NEAR-GROUND SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MINI-SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN CONFLUENT/SPIRAL BANDS ORIGINATING OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN REGION. TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS ENTIRE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE BEING INVOF OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN NC AND SRN VA. GIVEN SYSTEM EVOLUTION TOWARD EXTRATROPICAL...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY BIASED TOWARD TIME OF PEAK DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY EXTEND NWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT...OWING LARGELY TO PERSISTENT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF SURFACE LOW. IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE REQUIRED AT 1630Z OVER PORTIONS OF NC AND/OR VA. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO WW 813 AND ANY ASSOCIATED MCD/S. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 16:24:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 11:24:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409081625.i88GPYG15897@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081623 SWODY1 SPC AC 081618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 20 SE FLO 15 NW FLO 35 ESE CLT 35 SW GSO 30 SSE PSK 15 NE PSK 30 SSE EKN 20 WSW MRB 25 WNW BWI 25 N NHK 30 WNW ORF 15 NNW EWN ILM 25 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BBW 25 N MCK 35 NE GLD 25 SSW AKO 35 SSW BFF 55 S 81V 40 E SHR 55 SSE LVM 3HT 70 E LWT 20 NE GDV 40 S P24 20 SSW JMS 30 WNW AXN 15 ESE FSD 15 NE BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ART 15 WNW BML 15 NNW EPM ...CONT... 25 SSE TLH 25 NE AYS 15 S AGS 10 WNW LOZ 15 NE LEX 15 WNW CMH 25 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 20 S RAL 25 NNW LAX 35 WNW PMD 35 NNE DAG 10 WSW SGU 35 W PGA 55 NNE INW 45 WSW FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NC NWD INTO VA.... ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES IN NC/VA. ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL L0W AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING EWD WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ONE TROUGH /NOW EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO ERN NEB/ WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH MOVES E OF THE REGION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF SW MT WILL MOVE EWD TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/WEAK LOW FROM NW NEB TO SE MT...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. LASTLY...L0W-MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD NWD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /LARGELY OROGRAPHIC/ MAY FORM ACROSS THIS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NC/VA AREA... THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL MOVE NNEWD NEAR OR JUST W OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT...FROM NE TN TO WRN PA. E AND NE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC/VA TO THE E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS SC/NC. DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NC/VA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC/VA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES FOCUSED ALONG/IMMEDIATELY E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL NC...AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL VA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE WARM SECTOR. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 8 19:55:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2004 14:55:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409081956.i88JuEG13989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081950 SWODY1 SPC AC 081946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FAY 50 NNW FLO 45 W SOP 20 NNW GSO ROA 10 S MGW AOO 30 WSW ABE 15 SSE PHL 20 WNW ORF 40 N EWN 15 NE OAJ 25 S FAY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BBW 10 SE GLD 35 E LIC 30 NNW LIC 35 SSW BFF 55 S 81V 20 N GCC 50 NW COD 3HT 70 E LWT 35 ESE SDY 40 SE JMS 15 SSE ATY 15 NNE YKN 15 S BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TLH 20 NNE AYS 10 WNW CAE 10 SSW LOZ 25 SE LUK 15 WNW CMH 25 NE CLE ...CONT... 10 W ART 15 WNW BML 15 NNW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 20 S RAL 25 NNW LAX 35 WNW PMD 35 NNE DAG 10 WSW SGU 35 W PGA 55 NNE INW 45 WSW FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...NC THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA... THIS AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SW VA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW E OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR NWD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N CNTRL VA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF FRANCES CONTINUES NNEWD. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING ADVECTING NWD THROUGH ERN NC AND CNTRL/ERN VA WITH A CORRESPONDING AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG... PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL THROUGH NRN VA WHERE THE FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2 BASED ON NWD MOVING STORMS. THEREFORE THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN VA AS STORMS MOVE NWD AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN NC. OVERNIGHT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NWD AND MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT SOME THREAT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ..DIAL.. 09/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 05:49:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 00:49:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409100551.i8A5p2O31920@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100549 SWODY1 SPC AC 100544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 45 SSW HIB 55 NNW AXN 35 S GFK 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW LRD 35 ENE CRP ...CONT... 10 WNW GLS 25 S POE 15 NE LUL 40 NNE ATL 45 NW CAE 20 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 30 NNE MSN 20 WNW DBQ 30 NNE GRI 55 N CAO 55 NNE SAF 30 S GCN 50 E BLH 40 SE YUM ...CONT... CZZ 20 NE LGB 35 S BFL 45 SE U31 45 ESE EVW 15 SSW BFF 25 NNE AIA 55 SSW PHP 40 NW RAP 70 NE BIL 45 NNW HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND APPROACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY 00Z. LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS ERN ND/NRN MN. THIS WILL PROVE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A FAIRLY WARM PLUME OF ELEVATED AIR SPREADS NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SRN MN AND WRN WI...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST ZONE OF LOW LEVEL HEATING APPEARS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN ONTARIO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BORDER IN SRN CANADA...THEN POSSIBLE SWD INTO NRN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WITH ROUGHLY 1500J/KG SBCAPE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 12:32:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 07:32:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409101233.i8ACXrO07374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101231 SWODY1 SPC AC 101227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO 30 SSE ELO 45 SSW HIB 45 SE FAR 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DRT 30 NE JCT 15 W TPL 25 E CLL 40 ESE POE 15 NE LUL 40 NNE ATL 45 NW FLO 20 NNE HSE ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO 15 ENE OFK 55 N CAO 55 NNE SAF 30 S GCN 50 E BLH 40 SE YUM ...CONT... CZZ 20 NE LGB 35 S BFL 75 ENE TPH 25 ESE SLC 35 ESE RKS 50 WSW CPR 55 SSE SHR 30 NNW SHR 50 ENE LWT 65 N OLF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN PLAINS/NRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER THIS PERIOD WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW THAT WAS FRANCES AND NRN STREAM TROUGH MERGER WILL LIFT NEWD INTO ERN CANADA BUT LEAVE A TRAILING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN ROCKIES WITH A PLUME OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MN... VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM COUPLED WITH INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME AND LIFT AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGHS WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FROM NEB INTO SWRN MN THIS MORNING. THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY ABOVE STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OR SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BUT WILL STILL FORM IN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS. MORE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT FOR LONGER-LIVED ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS NRN MN BY EVENING AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THIS AREA. A FEW BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRANSITION NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO ONTARIO BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 16:23:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 11:23:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409101624.i8AGOOO04266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101621 SWODY1 SPC AC 101617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO HIB 40 NW BRD 45 ENE FAR 20 ESE GFK 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN 15 SW RAL 25 N LAX 15 NW PMD 30 ESE EDW 15 NE DAG 50 NE DAG 65 WSW LAS 65 SSW DRA 45 ENE NID 50 WSW DRA 65 NNE DRA 40 S ELY 15 ENE U24 40 SE EVW 35 ESE RIW 40 ENE WRL 65 ENE BIL 40 N MLS ISN 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO OFK 30 SE LBF 50 SSW LAA 55 WSW RTN 70 SE PGA 65 NNW GBN 70 SSW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 15 NNE HDO 10 NNE CLL 30 NW HOU 35 NE HOU 25 WNW LCH 25 SSE POE 35 N BTR 20 SSE LUL 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS MT AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NRN STATES. MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO Q-G THERMAL ADVECTION PROCESSES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD THEN WWD INTO WY WILL MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING N CENTRAL MN/ERN SD BY THIS EVENING AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/SWRN MN/NRN NEB BY 11/12Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM LAYER BASED NEAR 850 MB THAT IS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SURFACE PARCELS FROM REACHING THE LFC. HOWEVER SEVERAL AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION /SWRN MN..NRN ND...AND NRN CO INTO WRN NEB/ ARE SPREADING EWD AND NEWD IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF MN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 55-60F RANGE WILL BE COMMON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SD INTO NRN MN WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE LOCATED...CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CAP IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP. NONETHELESS... MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z RUC/ETA/GFS AND 09Z SREF INDICATE THAT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED...WITH THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO PARTS OF NRN MN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS AND RESULTANT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION OF CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THUS...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 10 19:57:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 14:57:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409101958.i8AJwpO21835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101955 SWODY1 SPC AC 101950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE ELO HIB 40 NW BRD 45 ENE FAR 20 ESE GFK 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN 50 ENE ALO OFK 30 SE LBF 50 SSW LAA 55 WSW RTN 70 SE PGA 65 NNW GBN 70 SSW GBN ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN 15 SW RAL 25 N LAX 15 NW PMD 30 ESE EDW 15 NE DAG 50 NE DAG 65 WSW LAS 65 SSW DRA 40 ENE NID 50 ESE BIH 30 S ELY 15 ENE U24 40 SE EVW 35 ESE RIW 40 ENE WRL 65 ENE BIL 40 N MLS ISN 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 15 NNE HDO 10 NNE CLL 30 NW HOU 35 NE HOU 25 WNW LCH 25 SSE POE 35 N BTR 20 SSE LUL 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN MN... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NCNTRL WY AT MID-AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD THROUGH THE DAKS AND INTO MN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAD MOVED TO A 19Z POSITION FROM NWRN MN-NERN SD-NERN WY AND WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE TONIGHT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED OWING TO WARM H85-H7 TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE 18Z RUC AND 09Z SREF SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS INITIATION IS NOT LIKELY...BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS REACHING THE LFC WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN INTO NWRN ONT WHERE CAP WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND MLCAPES OF 750-1200 J/KG EXIST. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR INCREASING POST-FRONTAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD INTO ERN ND AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE FRONT MOVES NEWD. THE START OF THIS SCENARIO MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH ELEVATION TSTMS DEVELOPING/ EXPANDING ACROSS ERN WY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS. THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THE HIGHEST RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE IN NRN MN WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED. MORE ISOLD THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD AND EXTREME NCNTRL NEB. ..RACY.. 09/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 00:38:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 19:38:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409110039.i8B0deO09849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110037 SWODY1 SPC AC 110032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 25 SE CWA 35 SW LSE OFK 30 SE LBF 45 NNE CAO 50 NNW LVS 40 NE INW 60 WNW PHX 70 SSW GBN ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 25 SE RAL 25 WSW DAG 45 NNE DAG 30 W MLF 30 S RKS 35 S CPR 50 SSE 81V 35 SSW MBG 30 SSE JMS 30 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW COT 30 SSW SAT 60 SE AUS 30 N GLS 20 WNW 7R4 35 NNE MSY 65 NNW PNS 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY EXHIBIT A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AROUND 800MB. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY PREVENTED SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A FEW WEAK UPPER VORT MAXIMA ARE...HOWEVER...LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THIS REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. DEEP CONVECTION TRAILS THE LEAD VORT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WELL SW INTO SERN WY/NRN CO. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN ND...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF COOLING NEEDED TO ALLOW PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...IT APPEARS POST FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE WHERE INITIATION OCCURS...OR PERHAPS ACROSS NRN MN WHERE MUCH WEAKER INHIBITION IS OBSERVED...PER INL SOUNDING. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 05:44:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 00:44:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409110545.i8B5jsO10716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110544 SWODY1 SPC AC 110539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 40 SE DVL 50 ENE BIS 30 NNW DIK 20 WNW OLF 60 SE HVR 25 WSW HLN 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE MTC 15 SSE JXN 15 SW CGX 35 NNE DSM 30 NW SUX 10 WSW MHE 30 NNE HON 40 NNE RWF 55 W IWD 75 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SMX 55 NNE BFL U31 20 W SLC 40 N VEL 50 W CAG 30 W EGE 45 ENE DRO 25 WNW SAF 15 SE ONM 20 WSW TCS 50 NW SAD 25 S PRC 35 ENE BLH 10 WSW YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 E JCT 40 NNW HOU 35 WNW LFT 15 SSW MCB MEI 20 NE RMG 15 NW CLT RDU 20 SE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...30-60M...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...VEERED LLJ WILL LIFT QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC WHICH APPEARS TO FAVOR WEAKENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO GENERATE CONVECTION. 00Z MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING OVER SRN MN/NRN IA...POSSIBLY NOT REGENERATING LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LARGE SCALE FOCUS ACROSS CANADA. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITHIN DEEPENING WLY FLOW REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR GRB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. AS A RESULT...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS REGION...AND MAINLY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 12:39:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 07:39:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409111241.i8BCfDO12663@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111238 SWODY1 SPC AC 111234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MBS 25 ENE GRR 40 NNW CGX 35 NNE DSM 30 NW SUX 10 WSW MHE 30 NNE HON 15 WSW STC 45 ESE DLH 75 NNW CMX ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 10 SW DVL 45 NNE BIS 30 NNW DIK 20 WNW OLF 60 SE HVR 25 WSW HLN 4LW MFR 30 SSE EUG DLS EAT 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 10 W SMX 55 NNE BFL U31 20 W SLC 40 N VEL 50 W CAG 30 W EGE 45 ENE DRO 25 WNW SAF 40 NW ONM 75 NW TCS 45 SSW SOW 25 S PRC 35 ENE BLH 10 WSW YUM ...CONT... DRT 35 E JCT 40 NNW HOU 35 WNW LFT 15 SSW MCB MEI 50 WNW AHN 15 NW CLT RDU 20 SE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN OF MODEST AMPLITUDE CONTINUES ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TODAY WITH ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST AND THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN ROCKIES...AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF OF MEXICO. TSTM ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WRN FLANK OF SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER RIDGE. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... RELATIVELY SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND MASS TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE BORDER...FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...A NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FROM ERN WI ACROSS NRN MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS AND NCEP SREF DATA ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SMALL REGION FROM NERN/ERN WI NEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI BECOMING WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUD COVER AND CAPPING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT MORE VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION THIS AREA IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. WITH 40-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ANTICIPATED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RESULTS IN 5 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS MAY REVEAL GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL AND A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED TO LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 16:08:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 11:08:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409111610.i8BGAIO17423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111607 SWODY1 SPC AC 111603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 7R4 20 S BTR 30 SSW LUL 40 SSW TCL 25 NW LGC 15 SW AGS 30 SW FLO 35 E RWI 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE OSC 10 SE MBL JVL 35 NW DBQ 25 S MCW 40 SW OTG 20 N FSD 25 ENE BKX 60 ENE STC 50 WNW IWD 65 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 45 NNE SAN 35 S RAL 20 NW RAL 25 ENE OXR 35 NNE OXR 35 NW PMD 20 W NID 60 NNW NID 10 SSW BIH 35 SW U31 40 ENE EKO 65 WNW OGD 30 E VEL 45 W ASE 35 SE MTJ 30 NNE GNT 30 SSW GNT 55 SE SOW 45 NNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNW DRT 50 SW SJT 10 SE SJT 55 ENE JCT 20 NNE AUS 35 N VCT 25 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL 35 SSW P24 25 SE ISN 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 25 NNE 3DU 20 NW BTM 55 W 27U 25 N LMT 20 E MFR 65 SE EUG 45 S PDT 25 NNW S80 35 W S06 40 NNE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES... STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND MN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WI/UPPER MI AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MOVE NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS SRN MN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD TODAY...REACHING AN ERN UPPER MI/CENTRAL WI/NRN IA LINE THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM UPPER MI INTO WI AND SRN MN. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT GRB AND APX EXHIBIT STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM ABOVE WARM LAYER NEAR 850 MB...BUT THIS WARM LAYER WILL ALSO TEND TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM FORMATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS INDICATE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHERE FOCUSED LIFT IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI SWWD INTO WI WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BAND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PERMIT LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING TO OCCUR RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AS DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ...SRN NV/NWRN AZ/SWRN UT... THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SRN NV AREA. 12Z DRA SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1 INCH/ AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SRN NV INTO NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1400 J/KG. THUS...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR EVIDENT IN THE DRA SOUNDING AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PROGRESSING NEWD ACROSS SRN NV. THIS WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 11 19:51:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 14:51:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409111952.i8BJqIO28971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111948 SWODY1 SPC AC 111943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE 7R4 40 SSE MCB 50 ESE LUL 10 SE BHM 25 SE ATL 20 SW CAE 15 E FLO 35 E RWI 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 45 NNE SAN 35 S RAL 20 NW RAL 25 ENE OXR 35 NNE OXR 35 NW PMD 20 W NID 60 NNW NID 10 SSW BIH 35 SW U31 40 ENE EKO 65 WNW OGD 30 E VEL 45 W ASE 35 SE MTJ 30 NNE GNT 30 SSW GNT 55 SE SOW 45 NNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 50 NNW DRT 50 SW SJT 10 SE SJT 20 S SEP 30 W LFK 55 NNE HOU 50 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL 35 SSW P24 25 SE ISN 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 25 NNE 3DU 20 NW BTM 55 W 27U 25 N LMT 20 E MFR 65 SE EUG 45 S PDT 25 NNW S80 35 W S06 40 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE APN HTL 35 NW MKG 35 NW MKE 15 NW MSN 25 E LSE 30 N LSE 25 NE EAU 35 N RHI 25 NNW MQT 115 NNW ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TAIL-END OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAD MOVED TO A 19Z POSITION FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR-NWRN WI-SWRN MN. THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI TONIGHT...WHILE WRN PORTIONS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SRN MN AND CNTRL WI. WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED PER RUC ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS OWING TO WARM H85-H7 TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE TRANSLATING QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH ONTARIO... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM NEEDED TO INITIATE TSTMS. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE IN NCNTRL/NERN WI. LATEST VSBL IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD VCNTY WAUSAU AND THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS AFTER 21Z. GIVEN 40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM...ONE OR TWO STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LOWER CO RVR VLY NEWD INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ... GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS SHOW A PLUME OF 1+ INCH VALUES STREAMING NEWD FROM OFF OF BAJA INTO SRN UT/NRN AZ. DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...AUGMENTED BY H25 JETLET OF 50 KTS. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS GIVING LARGE HAIL OR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. ..RACY.. 09/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 00:50:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2004 19:50:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409120052.i8C0qAO07662@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120049 SWODY1 SPC AC 120045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4LW 40 NNW 4LW 65 NNE LMT 30 SSW RDM 30 ENE RDM 20 SSE LWS 50 NNE S80 50 SW MSO 60 E S80 50 SE S80 55 SSE BKE 40 NNE 4LW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 60 WNW FCA 30 N 3TH 30 WNW S06 40 NE GEG 35 N 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 NW EDW 10 E BIH 45 SSW U31 40 SE BAM 55 N ENV 35 N OGD 15 ESE VEL 15 WSW MTJ 30 SSE DRO 20 WSW 4SL 30 SW GNT 30 W SOW 35 WNW PHX 30 WNW GBN 60 ESE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 20 SSW JCT 50 E JCT 25 WSW AUS 35 N VCT 30 WSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HUM 35 N MCB 15 ESE UOX 40 ENE MKL 15 SE CKV 20 NNW BNA 35 E BNA 50 SE BNA 30 S HSV 15 SW BHM 45 SSE BHM 15 S LGC 45 WSW AGS 35 SW FLO 25 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E OSC 40 NW MKG 10 N LNR 20 ENE LSE 35 NNW VOK 40 S IMT 15 NE ESC 50 ENE MQT 80 NNE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 30 ENE DVL 45 ESE MOT 35 W P24 15 NE ISN 60 N ISN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SW DESERT... SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SERN CA AND SRN NV. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM NRN BAJA CA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS SCNTRL CA AND SRN NV. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND THIS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE MARGINAL THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES... A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM THE ERN UP OF MI EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR ERN WI. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER ERN ONTARIO. THIS JET IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE IS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE. THE THREAT SHOULD LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION BY 03Z. ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 05:53:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 00:53:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409120554.i8C5swO03315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120552 SWODY1 SPC AC 120548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HUL 35 W AUG 15 SSW SYR 20 WNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK 35 SW ARG 20 N EVV 40 ENE 5I3 15 SW PSK 40 WNW GSO 15 SSE CLT 15 NNE CAE 30 S FLO 25 SSW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE P07 55 SW SJT 45 ENE JCT 10 SE AUS 30 N NIR 10 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 NNE ATY 55 N PHP 30 SSW CDR 30 S LHX 55 ENE 4CR 80 NW TCS 35 SE GBN 10 NW CZZ 35 NW DAG 65 SW ELY EKO 55 SE 4LW 50 N LMT 45 NE RDM 55 ESE EPH 40 NNE FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FAR NRN MN... AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE NWRN US IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO MT TODAY. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN MT EWD TODAY SHIFTING THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO MN BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE ORIENTED ACROSS ERN AND NRN MN BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN AND THIS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL INITIATE NEAR DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...THE CAP WEAKENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY IN NRN MN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF CELLS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAINLY NEAR SUNSET AS CELLS MOVE ENEWD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NWRN US WILL MOVE EWD INTO MT SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AFTER DARK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SE MT AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK WHICH WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. IF IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE MT...SW ND AND NW SD. ..BROYLES.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 12:28:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 07:28:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409121229.i8CCTPO25793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121227 SWODY1 SPC AC 121222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX 45 SE BJI 55 NNE ATY 30 NNE VTN 25 SSW AIA 25 SSE PUB 30 NW ROW 20 ESE ALM 35 SE GBN 40 W TRM NID 65 SW ELY 10 SSE EKO 20 NE SVE 10 N LMT 45 NE RDM PUW 40 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS 30 SSE TXK 35 SW ARG 35 E MVN 15 WSW DAY 30 SW CMH 40 WNW GSO CLT 10 WSW AND 30 SE AHN 25 SE AGS 40 S FLO 20 WNW CRE 10 S ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING SPREADS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY AND MAY AID SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CONUS...BENIGN LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SHORT WAVE NOW LIFTING ACROSS ERN CANADA...LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO RECOVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER. NONETHELESS...STRONG FORCING WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS VICINITY OF WY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEVELOP ENEWD INTO SD BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ASCENT WILL LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN VERY DRY SUBCLOUD AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN WY/MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE EVENING. A COUPLE OF SMALL TSTM CLUSTERS WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED BY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW. ...NRN MN... WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NRN MN. WHILE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND SERN MANITOBA...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACKBUILD INTO LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SSWWD INTO MN AND ERN SD. IF STORMS CAN BUILD INTO MN...STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 16:16:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 11:16:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409121618.i8CGICO31585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121616 SWODY1 SPC AC 121611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 20 WSW MDH 25 SW LUK 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 15 S PSK 15 NW AVL 55 ENE RMG 35 WNW ATL 40 NW MCN 45 SSE AHN 25 W CAE 15 SW FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 N ATY 20 WSW MHE BUB 25 ESE IML 35 S AKO 30 S LHX 35 SE RTN 15 ENE ABQ 25 SSE GNT 70 NW TCS 50 NE SAD 70 E PHX 40 NW PHX 45 E YUM 25 ESE BLH 35 SE EED 50 ENE DRA 30 W P38 35 S ENV 30 NNW DPG 55 W OGD 60 NNE ENV 40 NNE EKO 40 NNW EKO 25 N WMC 65 ESE 4LW 15 NE 4LW 70 SSE RDM BKE 30 SE GEG 30 NNW 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN STATES. NE/SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NERN ND SWWD ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON...AS DOWNSTREAM WARM FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY LIFTS NWD TO NEAR THE NRN MN/CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT OVER NERN WY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE LOW MOVING ENEWD INTO SD TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN MN. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CAP WILL PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARMING ALOFT SPREADS ENEWD FROM THE PLAINS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LIMITED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREAT OCCURRING IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER SERN MANITOBA AND NWRN ONTARIO. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NRN WY/SRN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS WWD INTO SD...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND PARTS OF ND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ...TN VALLEY... WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR TOWARD WRN TN. SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -11C ACCORDING TO 12Z LZK SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC HOURLY ANALYSES. STRONG HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F/ IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG FROM WRN TN INTO MS. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS APPARENT SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THIS AXIS...CU IS DEVELOPING WWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN AND NEW STORMS ARE FORMING OVER NWRN TN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EWD. PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 12 20:14:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 15:14:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409122015.i8CKFTO14274@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 20 WSW MDH 25 SW LUK 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 15 S PSK 15 NW AVL 55 ENE RMG 35 WNW ATL 40 NW MCN 45 SSE AHN 25 W CAE 15 SW FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 25 NE BRD 45 N ATY 20 WSW MHE BUB 25 ESE IML 35 S AKO 30 S LHX 35 SE RTN 15 ENE ABQ 25 SSE GNT 70 NW TCS 50 NE SAD 70 E PHX 40 NW PHX 45 E YUM 25 ESE BLH 35 SE EED 50 ENE DRA 30 W P38 35 S ENV 30 NNW DPG 55 W OGD 60 NNE ENV 40 NNE EKO 40 NNW EKO 25 N WMC 65 ESE 4LW 15 NE 4LW 70 SSE RDM BKE 30 SE GEG 30 NNW 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VLY... LATEST RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50-60 KT H25 JETLET ROUNDING THE BASE OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER WRN TN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET AND HEATING HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NRN MS. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN 6 C/KM /18Z BNA SOUNDING/...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE H7 AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE RISKS OF ISOLD PULSE SEVERE TSTMS GIVING SEVERE HAIL/WIND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...NRN PLAINS... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION WILL MIGRATE ONTO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM SERN SASK TO NRN WY WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SEWD...REACHING A CNTRL DAKS TO NWRN NEB LINE BY 12Z MONDAY. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE MINIMAL. TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS WY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SERN MT AND THE DAKS LATER TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES EWD. INITIAL TSTMS OVER NERN WY/SERN MT MAY YIELD GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. LATER TONIGHT...SLY LLJ WILL FOCUS ENHANCED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION. THUS...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. THOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM. ..RACY.. 09/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 00:56:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 19:56:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409130057.i8D0vcO14118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130055 SWODY1 SPC AC 130050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 20 ENE BRD 25 N ATY 25 WSW MHE 10 NW BBW 50 NNW GLD 20 NNW LHX 40 NNW LVS 20 NE ABQ 40 W ONM 45 NE SAD 70 WNW SAD 50 SE PHX 25 SSE GBN 25 E YUM 15 S BLH 45 NNW EED 30 SE ELY 45 SW ENV 20 N EKO 55 NW WMC 65 ESE 4LW 10 E 4LW 65 NNE 4LW 35 W BKE 25 ENE ALW 25 NNW GEG 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 45 ENE P07 60 WSW SJT 10 NNE SJT 35 W BWD BWD 45 W TPL 30 SW CLL 45 WNW HOU 30 NNE HOU 40 SW POE 40 SW MLU 45 ENE LIT 15 NNE CGI 45 NNE SDF 35 SSE UNI 15 ENE BKW 30 SW PSK 40 E HSS 50 ENE RMG 25 ESE RMG 10 WSW ATL 30 SSE ATL 30 W AGS 35 WSW FLO 20 NE CRE ...CONT... 20 NNW HUL 50 NW 3B1. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NE MS/NW AL... NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WRN TN...NE MS AND NW AL WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F. THE BNA 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE BEING DRIVEN MOSTLY BY OUTFLOW INTERACTION AND THIS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DROPS THROUGH MID-EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. ...NE WY/SE MT/ND/NW SD... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NE ND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NRN WY WITH ABOUT 750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT 500 MB...THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS FAR ERN WY MOVING INTO SWRN SD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS ERN WY TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OVER NE MT AND THE SRN EXTENT OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD. THIS SUGGESTS THE STORMS THAT MOVE OVER FAR NWRN SD AND SW ND WILL HAVE A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL DUE TO THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA AND WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND ND. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 06:03:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 01:03:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409130604.i8D64rO26771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130602 SWODY1 SPC AC 130557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 E ELO 35 NW EAU 20 WSW FOD 25 W BIE 40 SSW HSI 50 SW EAR 25 SE LBF 45 NW BBW 40 WNW HON 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 30 W VCT 30 NNW VCT 40 SSE MCB 45 SSW LUL 25 SW CBM 25 WNW DYR 40 ESE POF 25 SW MTO 10 E MTO 35 WNW DAY 25 SW ZZV 15 WNW PKB 10 SE BLF 20 S AVL 20 ENE AND 20 NW CAE 15 E CAE 20 SSE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 NNW ANJ 15 WSW LNR 15 N FLV 25 NW GAG CVS 50 E ALM 35 SSW TCS 30 NNW SAD 25 SE INW 65 WSW FMN 50 ESE VEL 30 SSE JAC 45 SW MQM 50 NNW BOI 30 ESE DLS 25 NNW UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD AS A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS ALLOWING LOWER TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS TO GATHER ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST ACROSS NWRN MN. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE STORMS FIRST INITIATE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF A LINE DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO SE SD AND ECNTRL NEB BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z ACROSS WRN MN SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS MN WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE 45 TO 55 KT. IN ADDITION...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT MAINLY ACROSS MN AND ERN SD. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WRN MN WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS MN...SERN SD AND ERN NEB DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR BOWING ECHOES. THE LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING REACHING NW WI AND NRN IA AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 12:23:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 07:23:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409131224.i8DCObO15194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131222 SWODY1 SPC AC 131217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX 40 NNW EAU 50 NNE OMA 25 WNW BIE 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 20 SE SAF 25 E ALS 15 S VEL 50 ESE MLD 35 ESE SUN 80 ESE BNO 20 ENE SLE 25 SSW HQM ...CONT... 140 NE CMX 25 ESE LSE 15 ENE MHK 55 NNW P28 10 ENE LAA 30 S LHX 40 NW CAO 30 ENE TCC HOB 65 SSW GDP ...CONT... 20 W MFE 30 W VCT 55 SW LFK 35 SSE BTR 25 NE MCB 25 SW CBM 10 ENE MEM 40 ESE POF 25 SSE MVN 20 NNW IND 15 ESE MIE 25 SW CMH 30 ESE PKB 25 WNW SSU 20 S AVL 20 ENE AND 40 SSE SPA 35 NE CAE 20 SSE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL ESTABLISHED STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...FROM WRN NEB NNEWD INTO ERN ND. MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX...CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN ID...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH A 60-90M 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES WILL RIPPLE ENEWD ALONG INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT AND ACT TO SHIFT THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY EWD/SEWD INTO INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1800 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP IN AN AXIS FROM NEB TO MN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED INTO MID-AFTERNOON GIVEN A DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG CAP WILL AID IN EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. WEAKER CAP AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION SHOULD PROMOTE INITIAL SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN AND NRN MN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING ACT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACROSS MN...40KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 50KT WILL RESULT STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SHEAR VECTORS ALSO REMAIN ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PERPENDICULAR TO THE SURFACE FRONT SUGGESTING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CELLULAR...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WITH TIME. WHILE NEAR SURFACE FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY VEERED...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS ARE RELATIVELY LOW...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR INVOF FRONTAL WAVES WHERE LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTS IN GREATER SRH AND STORM INFLOW THROUGH EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL MN THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...TSTMS SHOULD ERUPT NEAR THE FRONT AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ELIMINATED THROUGH WEAK ASCENT AND HEATING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAKER ACROSS AREAS FROM SWRN MN INTO NEB ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER... FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXHIBIT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING LARGE HAIL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUTFLOW DOMINANT ACTIVITY AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...COUPLED WITH LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...WILL SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 16:05:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 11:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409131607.i8DG72O02268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131603 SWODY1 SPC AC 131558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ELO 15 SE MKT 40 WSW FOD 30 SSE HSI 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 30 E LRD 45 S SAT 40 ENE AUS 15 W GGG 45 NE LIT 10 WSW POF 35 WSW MTO 55 S CGX 20 SSE SBN 10 SSE FDY 20 NNW UNI 15 E BLF 15 SW GSP AGS 40 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 ENE CMX CWA 20 SW OTM 20 NW EMP 15 WSW RSL 15 NNW GCK 35 WSW AMA 45 N HOB 55 SW INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 50 WNW SAD 10 ENE SOW 25 WSW FMN 35 N CEZ 15 SW GJT 30 SSE VEL 50 NW CAG 25 NE RWL CPR 35 E RIW 40 NW RIW 20 SSE IDA 50 SSE BKE 30 ESE DLS 20 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER /NOW BETWEEN ABR AND JMS/ EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOME AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS/TROUGHS OVER THE REGION. MAIN COLD FRONT APPEARS TO DRAPE FROM FAR NWRN MN SWD INTO LOW CENTER AND THEN MORE WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...A TROUGH EXTENDED SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD TODAY INTO CENTRAL MN/FAR ERN SD/CENTRAL NEB...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN MN INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN NEB LATER TONIGHT. OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK. COMBINATION OF DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AND SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST NEAR THE FRONT/LOW CENTER DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NWRN/CENTRAL MN AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN SD. FARTHER SSWWD ALONG THE FRONT...VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE WEAKER. THIS SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN NEB INTO SERN SD/NERN IA/SWRN MN MAY BE SLOWER TO OCCUR AND TIED TO STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT /MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z/. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER DARK. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH BASED. ...TN VALLEY REGION... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL LIKELY AGAIN FOCUS AN AREA OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS TODAY. ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 13 20:01:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 15:01:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409132002.i8DK2oO07114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132000 SWODY1 SPC AC 131955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ELO 15 SE MKT 40 WSW FOD 30 SSE HSI 20 SSE MCK 30 SSW IML 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 20 E ANW 20 W ATY 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W MFE 60 SE LRD 45 WNW COT 30 NW SAT 15 W GGG HOT POF CMI 55 S CGX SBN FDY UNI PSK GSP CAE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT CWA OTM TOP RSL GCK 35 WSW AMA 45 N HOB 55 SW INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 50 SSW TUS SOW CEZ U28 VEL 25 NE RWL CPR IDA 50 SSE BKE SLE 45 SSW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MN SWWD TO CENTRAL/SWRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... BROADLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN DAKOTAS -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND ACCELERATE TO NWRN ONT BY END OF PERIOD...WHILE DEAMPLIFYING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION. AT SFC..COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM FRONTAL WAVE LOW ALONG ONT/MANITOBA BORDER...SWWD ACROSS NWRN MN AND SERN ND INTO ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN JMS-ABR...THEN WSWWD ACROSS NWRN SD. TWO SECONDARY BOUNDARIES -- SFC TROUGHS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS -- EXTEND SWD TO SWWD FROM JMS/ABR LOW -- 1. ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE TO EXTREME SERN WY AND 2. FROM NEAR HON-MHE-GLD-LIC. EXPECT NRN TWO BOUNDARIES TO CONSOLIDATE/MERGE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD ACROSS SD...WHILE SRN BOUNDARY REMAINS DISTINCT PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG CAPPING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...AND POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION GENERALLY BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CENTRAL MN TO NERN NEB. HOWEVER...EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SWRN SD MAY BECOME SFC BASED FARTHER E ACROSS ERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AND 60S F SFC DEW POINTS -- WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 14/00Z. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE OVER MN WHERE 50 KT LLJ CONTRIBUTES TO 0-1 KM SRH IN 200-300 K/KG RANGE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS GENERALLY 35-45 KT. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS -- ESPECIALLY GIVEN CAP STRENGTH...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP IN INTENSELY HEATED/MIXED AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SRN TROUGH...OVER SWRN NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. HOWEVER...A FEW CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS BETWEEN 22Z-01Z. ...TN VALLEY REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MULTICELL TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THIS REGION. LARGELY DIURNAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND INVOF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT E OF TROUGH ALOFT -- COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING AND FAVORABLE SFC MOISTURE -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKENING CINH. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW POOLS...BASED ON MODIFIED 18Z BMX/BNA RAOBS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO MID TN...PER LATEST VWP...18Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOTED PARTICULARLY OVER SRN MID TN AND AL...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL POTENTIAL. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER APPROXIMATELY 3Z WITH INTENSIFYING DIABATIC COOLING OF NEAR-SFC LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 00:55:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2004 19:55:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409140056.i8E0umO12336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140054 SWODY1 SPC AC 140050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ELO 20 E MKT 55 WSW FOD 10 WNW LNK 40 SW HSI 20 SE MCK 30 W MCK 15 NE IML 30 SSE MHN 45 SSW MHE 20 NNE ATY RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MFE 40 ESE LRD 25 SSE COT 35 SSE HDO 30 NE AUS TXK ARG 20 E CGI 45 SW LUK 35 NNW CRW 35 SW EKN 15 S SHD 25 SSE LYH GSO 15 WNW AND 40 ESE ATL 35 NE MCN 15 SW AGS 30 SW FLO 10 SE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 50 E SOW 20 E GUP CEZ 30 NNW GJT 50 ESE RKS 30 SSW CPR 35 NE CPR 50 N CPR 35 SSE WRL 30 NNW LND 50 NE MLD 35 N BYI 30 NNW BOI 30 SW DLS AST ...CONT... 65 NNW CMX 55 NE EAU 15 SW LSE 25 WNW LWD 30 SW MHK 65 NE AMA 55 W LBB 45 WSW INK 50 W MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS.... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS... A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM SW MN TO FAR NW KS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO IN WRN MN. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 100O TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NW KS TO WRN MN. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE BEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER ERN AND SRN NEB WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0 C/KM FROM SWRN MN TO NW KS AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MN...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN MN SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MN LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HAIL THREAT AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SW MN AND ERN NEB SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING LINE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. ALTHOUGH DECREASING INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ERN MN AND NRN IA DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ..BROYLES.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 05:43:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 00:43:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409140545.i8E5j6O28028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140542 SWODY1 SPC AC 140537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GLD 25 ENE LIC 45 ENE DEN 40 ENE FCL 30 S BFF 25 SE AIA 30 NW BUB 35 E YKN 20 N MKT 45 NNW EAU 45 W RHI 25 S RHI 20 E CWA 35 E VOK 35 W CID 30 NE FNB 35 WNW CNK 30 ESE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE APN MKE RFD MLI IRK MKC 40 S RSL 45 NNE LAA 20 SW LIC DEN FCL CYS 45 NNW BFF 60 WNW CDR WRL JAC 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS ABR 10 NNW ATY 55 SW AXN HIB 30 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DRT TPL 60 SW TYR LFK BPT 20 S BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM HUM MSY 65 SSW SEM TOI AUO 35 NW RMG CSV 45 NW TRI DAN 25 NNE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB AND WRN MN AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS SRN NEB AND NWRN IA. A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NWRN WI SWWD TO CNTRL NEB. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MN AND NRN IA WILL IMPEDE SFC HEATING TODAY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND STRONG SFC HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SRN NEB TO WRN NEB. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z NEAR OMAHA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS UPON INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE EXPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN IA AND SRN NEB. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MN AND NRN IA...LESS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BACKED SFC WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 55 KT WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ...NE CO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F ACROSS NERN CO AND SWRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...INVERTED V WIND-PROFILES AND HIGH LCLS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE ERN CO PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DECREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL BY ABOUT 03Z ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 12:56:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 07:56:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409141257.i8ECvRO08413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141254 SWODY1 SPC AC 141249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FRM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 35 E DBQ 30 SE CID 30 WSW LWD 10 NE SLN 30 NNW GCK 25 NE LHX 20 NNE PUB 20 NNW COS 15 SSW CYS 45 N CYS 30 WNW BFF 40 ESE AIA 25 W BUB 35 NNW OFK 25 E FRM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE APN 40 NE MKG RFD MLI 20 NE IRK 15 E OJC 15 SW ICT 50 S LAA 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 50 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS 25 NNE ABR 40 N ATY AXN HIB 45 N ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 60 S BWD ACT 35 WNW LFK 50 WSW POE 20 NE LFT 35 NNE MSY 60 NW CEW TOI AUO 25 SW CHA 15 NNW CSV 50 ESE LUK 30 SE CMH 30 NNE PKB 60 N RWI 35 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EWD AND BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AND ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ACROSS A DEEP FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR ESTABLISHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WAS CURRENTLY LIFTING NNEWD INTO SRN CANADA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS ID AND THE NRN GREAT BASIN EARLY TODAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY....AND OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT. SURFACE LEE CYCLONE...NOW ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...WILL REDEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A FEW TSTMS LIKELY. HURRICANE IVAN WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CNTRL GULF WITH A BAND OF STRONG SLY MID LEVEL FLOW BRUSHING PORTIONS OF SWRN FL. ...ERN NEB ACROSS IA... COMPLICATED FCST SCENARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED EAST THROUGH MUCH OF IA WITH WEAK OUTFLOW/CLOUD BAND TRAILING SWWD INTO SWRN IA AND SERN NEB. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE SUSTAINING WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOPPED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER 1000-2000 J/KG. INITIALLY...STRONGER ASCENT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND MAY SUSTAIN AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN NEB INTO NRN IA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH INFLOW OF HOT UNSTABLE AIR AND POSSIBLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN IA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT MAY ALSO GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND DEEPENS. FCST SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. EXPECTED LOW LFC NEAR THE BOUNDARIES COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES THESE LOCATIONS...IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY AND SPREAD NEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS IA...THROUGH THE EVENING SUSTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. ...SERN WY/ERN CO INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN/CNTRL KS LATE... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG HEATING WILL ACT ON MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO AND EXTREME SERN WY TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY BY EVENING. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE MORE LIKELY GIVEN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONTAL SURGE BY LATE EVENING WITH THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN AND NCNTRL KS. ...SWRN FL... EXTENSIVE AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IVAN WILL BRUSH PARTS OF SWRN FL THROUGH THIS MORNING. KEY WEST RAOB AND VWP DATA INDICATED A DEEP LAYER OF 40-50KT SELY TO SLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THESE WIND FIELDS...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS...AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ISOLD/BRIEF TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE AND ONLY WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 16:25:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 11:25:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409141626.i8EGQVd20521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141624 SWODY1 SPC AC 141620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 25 ESE DBQ 20 WSW STJ 55 S GLD 40 NNW LHX 30 SSE DEN 20 NNW CYS 20 N BFF 45 SW MHN 20 N BBW 35 SSW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 30 SW BWD 40 NW ADM 40 SE PNC 35 SSE ICT 35 SSW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN P24 BIS 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC 20 W MKG 25 SE JVL 15 NE MMO 40 NNW LAF 20 W FDY 10 ESE CAK 45 ENE EKN 20 E NHK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LGC 30 SE AND 15 ENE HSS 20 E LEX 30 ENE SDF EVV 10 WNW CGI 40 NE PBF 30 SE MLU 25 SSW MCB 40 NE MOB TOI 15 SSW LGC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL FRONTS/WIND SHIFTS EXTENDING ENE-WSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB AND THEN WWD INTO WY...WHILE LEADING WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH FROM W-CENTRAL IA SWWD INTO NWRN KS. EXPECT FRONTS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER IA/ERN NEB TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING LOW CENTER EXPECTED OVER ERN CO AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO NRN UT. IN ADDITION...WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR OVER NRN IA/SRN MN. AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED ACROSS ERN KS INTO SERN NEB/SRN IA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAS HAMPERED HEATING THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM SERN NEB INTO WRN IA FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY 21Z OVER THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST FOR SUPERCELLS /I.E. AROUND 30 KT/...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. EXPECT OVERALL EVOLUTION INTO WIDESPREAD/MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NEB/IA AND INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD ACT ON AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. RESULTANT INCREASE IN SEVERITY AND COVERAGE OF ENSUING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID EVENING AS ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO AN MCS AND SHIFTS ESEWD OVERNIGHT. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH DIMINISHING TORNADO POTENTIAL AFTER DARK AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED. ...FL KEYS INTO SRN FL... OUTER PERIPHERY OF STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN ROTATE NNWWD ACROSS THE REGION. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 14 20:07:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 15:07:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409142008.i8EK8wd13253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142004 SWODY1 SPC AC 142000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW EAU 25 N VOK 35 NE LNR 25 ESE DBQ FNB 50 N DDC 40 NNW LHX 30 SSE DEN 20 NNW CYS 20 N BFF 35 NW MHN 30 WNW BBW 35 SSW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 50 NNE ABI 20 ENE FSI MKO 40 N BVO 35 SSW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC LAN 45 NNE FWA 20 W FDY 20 WNW CAK 35 E MGW 25 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LGC 30 SE AND 15 ENE HSS 20 E LEX 30 ENE SDF EVV 10 WNW CGI 40 NE PBF 30 SE MLU 25 SSW MCB 40 NE MOB TOI 15 SSW LGC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SWRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND BY HURRICANE IVAN. ROCKIES TROUGH IS FCST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ESEWD TOWARD WY/CO THEN TURN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE IVAN WILL PROCEED NWWD-NNWWD ACROSS GULF PER NHC FCSTS. PRIMARY SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN WI ACROSS SRN MN...SERN SD...CENTRAL NEB...THEN WWD TO INVOF E-W PORTION OF NEB/CO BORDER AND CYS RIDGE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEN REINFORCED THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING RELATED TO CLOUD COVER OVER NWRN NEB. SEPARATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED FROM N-CENTRAL IA SWWD TO E-CENTRAL NEB AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC FRONT...RELATED TO EARLIER/ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE. EXPECT INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS UPPER-40S/LOW-50S F TO COMBINE WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY...500-1000 J/KG WITHIN 50-75 NM TO ITS N. HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIONALLY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS S OF FRONT INDICATE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND ARE MAIN CONCERNS. ANY SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST N OF FRONT WHERE SBCAPE STILL EXISTS IN AREA OF LARGE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR -- ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER PORTIONS SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN CO -- IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT SFC HODOGRAPHS TO ELONGATE RESULTING IN 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG...ALONG AND JUST N OF BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. HIGH-BASED SEVERE TSTMS WITH WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NWRN KS...IN AREA OF STRONG SFC HEATING AND MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE MAX. REF SC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205. COMPLEX OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT AIDED BY 40-50 KT LLJ. ...ERN NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY... A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY INVOF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WHERE LIFT/SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED -- WITH FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. REF SPC WW 819 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER ERN NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL IA. INITIAL THREAT FOR DISCRETE STORMS WILL EVOLVE TOWARD MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR MCS THROUGH LATE EVENING...SHIFTING GENERALLY EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA...WITH POTENTIAL MAINLY BECOMING DAMAGING WIND. ...SW FL... ERN-MOST EDGE OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH FL GULF COAST -- MAINLY S OF TBW AREA -- FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH UP TO NEAR 200 J/KG. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND OF DISCRETE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG LIMITING FACTOR AS WELL...SO AS IVAN MOVES AWAY FROM THIS AREA...VERY MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL CURRENTLY IN PLACE SHOULD BECOME NEGLIGIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 01:00:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:00:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409150102.i8F126d17284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150059 SWODY1 SPC AC 150054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW HLC 40 WSW GLD 30 SSE AKO 30 N AKO 25 NE SNY 40 WSW MHN 35 NW BBW 40 W OFK 15 ESE FRM RST 25 ESE RST 30 SSW LSE 40 NW DBQ 15 NW CID 30 WSW CNK 60 SW HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 30 S INK 60 WSW SJT 50 SSW JCT 25 WSW HDO HDO 15 W SAT 50 NNW SAT 60 WNW MWL 35 NNW OKC 20 NNW END 30 W P28 40 SW DDC 35 SW ALS 40 SSW MTJ 40 NNW GJT 20 SSE RKS 40 SSE BPI 55 WNW BPI 80 WSW 27U LWS GEG 40 N 63S ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK 45 NNW ABR 40 N ATY 35 SSE AXN 60 SSW DLH 35 E DLH ...CONT... 15 NE OSC 15 SW LAN 30 E FWA 20 NNE DAY 20 N UNI 35 WSW MGW 15 NW DCA 30 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MOB 20 SSW TOI 35 WSW AHN 25 SSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 30 N LOZ 15 WSW SDF 45 WSW EVV 20 SSW POF 20 NNW HOT 25 NNW SHV 40 SSE SHV 10 SE POE 20 SSW BTR MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...NE CO/SW NEB/FAR NW KS... STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS ERN CO AND NW KS. THE STORMS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AND AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO SRN NEB AND NRN KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER SE WY AND THIS IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NE CO WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 55 TO 65 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN NEB TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE BACKED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION RESULTING IN STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS SW NEB AND FAR NW KS. AS INSTABILITY DROPS LATE THIS EVENING...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MCS MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN NEB AND NRN KS. ...IA/FAR SE MN/ERN NEB... A STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NW IA AND SRN MN. THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LINE IS NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE AND IS LOCATED IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER SE MN. THIS IS ENHANCING LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NWRN AND SE MN WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS FAR SE MN...IA...AND ERN NEB. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...WRN FL PENINSULA... THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL BRUSH THE WRN COAST OF FL TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE JUST OFF THE WRN COAST OF FL AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH THE SHORELINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR TAMPA SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELLS THAT AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST-LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 06:04:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 01:04:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409150605.i8F65Cd07735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150602 SWODY1 SPC AC 150557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PLN 10 S MKG 45 S CGX 15 E SPI 55 S UIN 40 NNW COU 50 SSE P35 15 WNW P35 25 NW DSM 35 N MCW 55 ENE ELO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 10 NW GPT 55 SE MEI 20 SW SEM MGM 40 S CSG ABY 20 WNW VLD 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK 60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 10 SSW RSL 15 W GRI 40 ENE ANW 15 SE PIR 20 NE PIR 40 WSW ABR 60 W AXN 35 SW HIB 25 ENE HIB 20 N ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 25 NNW GGG 10 WSW GGG 45 SSW SHV 45 SSE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM 40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.... ...SRN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... HURRICANE IVAN WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST OF AL...MS AND SE LA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SRN AL AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE MS...AL AND FL PANHANDLE COAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA AS RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER SPREAD INLAND. FATHER WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA...THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN FL COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINBANDS CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WRN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... A L0NG SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS NRN IA INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHOULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN IA...IL AND NE MO...WEAKER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LESS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOW SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN WI...IL... AND LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...N TX/OK... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO OK AND NCNTRL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT THE STORMS COVERAGE MAKING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 06:12:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 01:12:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409150613.i8F6DRd10425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150610 SWODY1 SPC AC 150605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PLN 10 S MKG 45 S CGX 15 E SPI 55 S UIN 40 NNW COU 50 SSE P35 15 WNW P35 25 NW DSM 35 N MCW 55 ENE ELO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 10 NW GPT 55 SE MEI 20 SW SEM MGM 40 S CSG ABY 20 WNW VLD 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK 60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 10 SSW RSL 15 W GRI 40 ENE ANW 15 SE PIR 20 NE PIR 40 WSW ABR 60 W AXN 35 SW HIB 25 ENE HIB 20 N ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 25 NNW GGG 10 WSW GGG 45 SSW SHV 45 SSE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM 40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE LA...FAR SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SW GA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.... CORRECTED TO REMOVE 15% TORNADO CONTOUR ...SRN MS/SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... HURRICANE IVAN WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST OF AL...MS AND SE LA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OUTER RAINBANDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SRN AL AND MS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD STILL REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE MS...AL AND FL PANHANDLE COAST. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE CENTER SHOW STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS THE RAINBANDS MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AL AND SWRN GA AS RAINBANDS CLOSER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER SPREAD INLAND. FATHER WEST ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA...THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN FL COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINBANDS CAN SPREAD NEWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WRN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... A L0NG SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM WRN WI ACROSS NRN IA INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AND SHOULD POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE LINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS UPPER MI AND WI WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS ERN IA...IL AND NE MO...WEAKER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LESS ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOW SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN WI...IL... AND LOWER MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...N TX/OK... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO OK AND NCNTRL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY PROVIDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT THE STORMS COVERAGE MAKING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL VERY ISOLATED. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 12:53:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 07:53:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409151254.i8FCsLd21614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151252 SWODY1 SPC AC 151247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ANJ 40 WSW HTL 20 WNW BEH 25 ENE BMI 45 ENE UIN 20 S OTM 25 S ALO 10 NNE EAU 35 WNW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BVE 30 SW GPT 45 SE MEI 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG 20 W MGR 35 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 25 NNE INK 60 W LBB 45 NW CDS 20 NE GAG 20 WSW SLN 10 SE GRI 55 E ANW 35 W HON 20 E ABR 25 NW AXN 55 ESE ELO ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 25 NNE EVV 30 E UNO 45 NW HOT 15 ESE TYR 50 SE SHV GLH 55 N MSL 50 SE BNA 45 SE TYS 45 SW PSK 30 E AOO 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 15 E BTM 40 W MQM 40 NW BOI 55 W BNO 25 SSE PDX 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO ERN IA/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO ERN IA/NRN IL... STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN SD/ERN NEB...WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TODAY REACHING NERN MN/NRN WI BY 00Z...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z THURSDAY. BAND OF 55-65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SWRN MN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD TO NWRN MO...AND THEN SWWD TO A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN MN/WRN WI...EXTENDED EWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER INTO CENTRAL WI. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO DLH BY 00Z. GIVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE LOW...CURRENT 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ WILL PERSIST AS IT TRANSLATES NNEWD INTO WRN/NRN WI BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MN INTO CENTRAL TO NRN WI THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD. SOME CLOUDINESS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG KINEMATICS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST KEEPING A SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN IA/NRN IL INTO MUCH OF WI TO THE U.P. OF MI AND FAR NWRN LOWER MI. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REINTENSIFY ACROSS WRN WI AND ERN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ENEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ACROSS MO TO OK...WEAKER UPPER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... HURRICANE IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE AL COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT OF IVAN AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. LOW LCLS/ WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL BE REALIZED PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE OUTER BANDS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND...POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 16:15:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 11:15:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409151616.i8FGGld02218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151612 SWODY1 SPC AC 151607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E GPT 45 SE MEI 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG 20 W MGR 35 SE TLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ANJ 30 WSW HTL 30 NNE BEH 15 W MMO 30 ENE OTM 35 SSE MCW MSP 65 ENE STC 55 NNW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 35 W INK 15 SW LBB 40 ENE GAG 20 S FNB 25 NW DSM 25 NW MCW 15 NNW MKT 10 WNW STC 35 NE BRD 55 ESE ELO ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 25 NNE EVV 30 NNW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SW TXK 20 W LFK 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 45 W HUM 35 ENE HEZ 35 SSW UOX 45 NW MSL 50 SE BNA 40 SE TYS HKY 30 W DAN 20 S SHD 40 E EKN 30 NNE HGR 20 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CTB 55 NE MSO 55 ENE S80 25 SW LWS 35 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA... ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S-CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET EJECTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE-TILT INTO WRN ONTARIO. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM LOW CENTER INTO THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATER TODAY. WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE HEATING OCCURS. MORNING MODELS CONSISTENT IN INCREASING BAND OF CONVECTION...CURRENTLY ELEVATED FROM ERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI...AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN CLEAR SLOT JUST SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW...WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AND CAP WEAKEST /REFERENCE SWOMCD 2214/. SHOULD ANY STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT COULD START BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MN/ERN IA/NRN IL/WRN WI. ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE...PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NRN UPPER MI AND INTO NRN/WRN LOWER MI/NERN IL. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL/SWRN GA... IVAN WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NWD TRACK MOVING JUST EAST OF FAR SERN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PROJECTED LANDFALL VERY NEAR MOBILE BAY/AL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND CG-LIGHTNING TRENDS INDICATE BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NOW ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY/APALACHICOLA...WHICH IS MOVING NWD AT 40-45 KT. THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY ROTATING AND SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE BY AROUND 17-18Z INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE VWP/S INDICATE 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SPREADS NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM FAR SRN MS ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY FAR SWRN GA BY LATER TONIGHT. ...MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS... A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY THE MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ERN IA INTO NERN/CENTRAL OK/NWRN TX BY 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF DEEP ASCENT EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 15 20:05:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 15:05:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409152007.i8FK70d31241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152002 SWODY1 SPC AC 151958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S MOB 40 E LUL 40 WSW SEM MGM 30 S AUO 40 SSE CSG MGR 40 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ HTL GRR BEH SPI TBN 40 NW SGF OJC 20 NW MLI LSE MSP 35 WSW DLH DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CLE 25 NNE EVV 30 NNW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SW TXK 20 W LFK 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 35 WSW BVE JAN UOX 55 SE BNA AHN 45 S CAE CRE ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 35 W INK MKC 30 NW MLI 10 WSW LSE 20 SSE MSP 40 ENE RWF 30 ESE AXN 35 NNW BRD 30 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES TO SWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AL...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN/IA CONTINUES TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS LS REGION TOWARD NWRN ONT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED ATTM OVER E-CENTRAL MN -- WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SYSTEM ALOFT. SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS REMAINDER MN/IA/KS...AND SEWD OVER OK AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL MOVE INLAND INVOF MOB BAY BETWEEN 16/06Z-12Z...BASED ON LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE FROM NHC. ...UPPER MIDWEST... REF WW 8245 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS REGARDING PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF WI. BOTH A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS -- ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S...ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO MO. VWP DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY FROM MO RIVER NWD. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. CONVECTION THIS FAR S SHOULD BE TIED MORE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING...AND SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES WITH SWWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF WEAKENING OF BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS. ...E-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN... REF SPC WW 823 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM INFORMATION RELATED TO OUTER-BAND SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. IVAN HAS A LARGE WIND ENVELOPE...AND AS THIS SPREADS PROGRESSIVELY FURTHER INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL AS WELL. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG OVER THIS AREA...VERY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEARS -- I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG -- WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN OUTER BANDS. ..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 00:46:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2004 19:46:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409160047.i8G0lJd01380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160044 SWODY1 SPC AC 160039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S MOB 25 ESE MEI TCL BHM 10 ESE ANB 30 ENE LGC 25 ENE ABY 25 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S BVE 40 NNW LUL 50 WSW CBM TUP 35 ESE MKL 25 SW BNA CHA AHN AGS 25 WNW CHS 35 SSW FLO 25 NW ILM 35 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE DAY JBR TXK 10 NE BWD SJT 40 S LBB AMA 30 SSW GAG END SZL MLI JVL MKE IMT 10 WNW IWD ELO 30 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... ...SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE/SW GA... HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ITS NWD TRACK TOWARD THE AL GULF COAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- NAMELY IN NE QUADRANT OF IVAN -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES INTO THURSDAY MORNING AMIDST PERIPHERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-500 MS/S2 AND 0-1 SHEAR OF 35 KTS OR GREATER...AS EVIDENT IN STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH IN 00Z TLH RAOB. REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST DETAILS ON TORNADO HAZARD. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING PORTION DECELERATES ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS. OVERALL DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED REMAINDER OF EVENING OWING TO MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY GLANCING BACKGROUND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH SWD EXTENT. THUS ONLY LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED REMAINDER OF PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ..GUYER/KERR.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 05:50:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 00:50:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409160551.i8G5pId20279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160548 SWODY1 SPC AC 160543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB MOB TCL HSV CHA AHN 65 ESE MCN VLD 35 ESE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE GPT 35 NW LUL 20 S GWO 30 N GLH 25 NE TXK 20 WSW TYR 20 ENE AUS 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 25 ENE HOB 40 WSW DHT 15 ENE AKO 25 SW MHN 30 ESE ANW 30 N GRI 25 SSE HSI 20 NE ICT 30 NNW BVO 20 WSW UMN 25 SE TBN BLV 40 NE LAF 55 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 25 SE GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA SHD ROA 35 SE PSK 15 E RDU 35 ESE RWI 10 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 10 N IWD 40 N EAU MSP 50 SSW AXN 30 N ABR 45 E BIS 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ISP ORH 20 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.... BELT OF STRONGER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WAS EVIDENT IN 16/00Z SOUNDING DATA...CURVING ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. AS HURRICANE IVAN GRADUALLY MAKES LANDFALL AND MERGES INTO THIS MORE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A STEADY WEAKENING WILL ENSUE AS SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... DESPITE WEAKENING TRENDS TO TROPICAL SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG/EAST OF TRACK OF CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN RISK OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IT APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AFTER LANDFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE... WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MOST BUOYANT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. INSTABILITY...AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES...LIKELY WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE AFTER DARK...BUT PROBABILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE...AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... WHILE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA...ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TRAIL BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANTS OF IVAN... STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG FRONT...FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND CAPE COD...BEFORE FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION TAKES ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. ...PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/ PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER... TONIGHT...FORCING/ DESTABILIZATION ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LAYER. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 12:47:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 07:47:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409161248.i8GCmJd00748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161240 SWODY1 SPC AC 161235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PNS 60 NNE MOB 15 SSW MSL 40 SW BNA 20 WNW TYS 25 WSW HKY 40 SSE SPA 40 WNW JAX 60 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE GPT 35 NW LUL 20 S GWO 30 N GLH 25 NE TXK 20 WSW TYR 20 ENE AUS 40 NE CRP ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 25 ENE HOB 40 WSW DHT 15 ENE AKO 25 SW MHN 30 ESE ANW 30 N GRI 25 SSE HSI 20 NE ICT 30 NNW BVO 20 WSW UMN 25 SE TBN BLV 40 NE LAF 55 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 25 SE GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA SHD ROA 35 SE PSK 15 E RDU 35 ESE RWI 10 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 10 N IWD 40 N EAU MSP 50 SSW AXN 30 N ABR 45 E BIS 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ISP ORH 20 S PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO SRN APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH HURRICANE IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN OVERALL STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NNE AND FARTHER INLAND TODAY ACROSS AL...THE ASSOCIATED STRONG/LARGE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. AREA VADS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED 0-1 KM SRH VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 M2/S2 SUPPORTING STORM ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITHIN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS. ...OH VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD TODAY INTO QUEBEC. TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMITING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 16:31:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 11:31:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409161632.i8GGWCd20807@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161628 SWODY1 SPC AC 161623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 35 S ANB 15 NW ANB 20 WSW RMG 35 NW AHN 25 W CAE 35 E AGS 55 NNE AYS 25 NE MGR ABY 20 SE CSG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CEW 20 W TOI 50 WNW BHM 35 S BNA 45 NNE TYS 40 WSW GSO 25 SW FAY 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK 10 S GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA SHD ROA 35 SE PSK 15 E RDU 35 ESE RWI 10 N HSE ...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 70 NNE MOB 45 WSW TCL 40 WNW MSL 25 WSW BNA 10 SW HOP 35 SSW PAH 30 W DYR TXK 20 WSW TYR 30 SW CLL 35 S VCT ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 WNW HOB 50 S DHT 35 WSW GLD 20 W IML 25 WSW BBW 15 WSW GRI 20 SSW SLN 25 N PNC 20 NW TUL 20 NNE FYV 40 SE TBN 15 SW SLO 25 NW MIE 35 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE INL 15 WSW HIB 20 ESE BRD 30 W STC 50 SSW AXN 25 WNW ABR 10 E BIS 75 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E-CENTRAL AL ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO PART OF W-CENTRAL SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SOUTHEAST... REFERENCE WW/S 828...829...830 AND LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CENTER OF IVAN APPEARS TO BE OVER DALLAS COUNTY AL AT 16Z MOVING NWD AT 15-20 KT. LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR EXTENDS EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AL INTO GA WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 WILL BE COMMON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATES WELL DEFINED E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN NC WSWWD INTO CENTRAL GA...SOUTH OF WHICH AN AXIS OF 80+F TEMPERATURES IS ENHANCING INSTABILITY. EXPECT A CONCENTRATED ZONE OF SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL TORNADOES INTO CENTRAL GA AND E-CENTRAL AL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WHERE GREATEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE COLLOCATED. OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CELLS ROTATING AROUND IVAN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 16 19:50:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 14:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409161951.i8GJpld04309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161948 SWODY1 SPC AC 161943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW MCN 20 SSE ATL 30 SE RMG 25 ENE RMG 65 NW AHN 20 NNE AND 20 SSW CAE 55 NNE AYS 40 NE MGR 10 ENE ABY 25 WSW MCN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 25 S CEW 30 WSW AUO 40 SSE BHM 40 SW HSV 35 S BNA 40 NNE TYS 45 NNE CLT 25 SW FAY 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 30 WNW HOB 50 S DHT 35 ENE LAA 35 SW IML 30 NNW MCK 30 S EAR 20 SSW SLN 25 N PNC 20 NW TUL 20 NNE FYV 40 SE TBN 15 SW SLO 30 NNE IND 20 ENE TOL ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 S GFL 30 NE MSV 35 SW ABE 15 NW DCA 15 ESE CHO 55 SW RIC 45 E RWI 10 N HSE ...CONT... 25 WSW PNS 70 NNE MOB 45 WSW TCL 40 WNW MSL 25 WSW BNA 10 SW HOP 35 SSW PAH 30 W DYR TXK 20 WSW TYR 30 SW CLL 35 S VCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE INL 15 WSW HIB 20 ESE BRD 30 W STC 50 SSW AXN 25 WNW ABR 10 E BIS 75 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN GA AND ADJACENT WRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...THE SOUTHEAST... IVAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM /PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS/ BUT A LARGE AREA OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD PERSISTS AROUND THIS STORM. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF IVAN /NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL/ CONTINUES TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER A LARGE AREA SUGGESTS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL AND NERN GA EWD INTO SC. ATTM...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN GA. AS IVAN MOVES SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...EXPECT GREATEST TORNADO THREAT TO LIKEWISE SPREAD SLOWLY EWD / NEWD INTO SC. ..GOSS.. 09/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 01:02:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2004 20:02:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409170103.i8H13Rd12823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170100 SWODY1 SPC AC 170055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E RMG 20 NNW RMG TYS 25 WNW HKY 30 WSW SOP 10 SE FLO 20 NNW SAV 40 SE MCN 20 NNW MCN 20 E ATL 15 E RMG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 S TOI 25 WNW AUO 15 ENE BHM 25 SE BNA 40 SW LOZ 45 ENE LEX 20 WSW SDF 40 WSW BMG HUF MIE 35 W CLE 25 SW BUF 50 NNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 25 WSW EFK MPV PSF POU ABE BWI 30 SE NHK 40 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL HIB MSP MCW SUX 60 NNE BUB 9V9 PIR BIS 70 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BLI 10 ENE SEA 20 NNW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CVS 40 SSW DHT 55 E LAA 45 N GCK 35 W RSL 25 NNE P28 25 W CSM 10 W LTS 20 WSW SPS 30 NW MWL 35 S ABI 40 SSE MAF 30 ENE CNM 30 SW CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 60 N TUS 35 NNW SAD 10 NNW SVC 30 SSW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES... REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT ...FROM THE BIRMINGHAM AL AREA TO THE VICINITY OF CHATTANOOGA TN. THOUGH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES. DESPITE STABILIZING INFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK BUOYANCY IN BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY MAY BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND AHEAD OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANTS OF IVAN...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ALONG FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRONGER LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17/06Z...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...PLAINS... WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY LIMITED TO VICINITY OF CREST OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIFTING MOIST MID-LEVEL PARCELS TO THEIR LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSED INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES/OLYMPICS MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVELS COOL OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 05:47:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 00:47:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409170548.i8H5mNd24916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170546 SWODY1 SPC AC 170541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TRI 20 SW PSK LYH 65 ENE DAN RDU 35 S CLT 30 S SPA 40 NNW AND 25 SE TYS 35 NE TYS TRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 50 S DLH 30 E RST 10 W IRK 35 WNW SGF 10 W MKO 40 ENE DAL 55 NNE CLL 20 SSE BPT ...CONT... 10 W ELP 40 WNW CVS 40 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD 50 NE ANW 15 NW BKX 45 WNW AXN 65 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 30 W BTM 25 N BOI 25 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 25 NNE CEW 20 ENE MGM 35 NNW BHM 50 WSW BNA 35 SW SDF 25 SSE CAK 35 WSW GFL 15 ESE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 35 ENE TRM 15 SW EED 30 SSE IGM 55 WSW SOW 30 NE SAD 35 SSW DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... IVAN HAS MERGED INTO BELT OF SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND STEADY SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS WILL OCCUR MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF EASTERN CANADIAN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. NORTHERN SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES...WITHIN WHICH MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY 18/12Z...A LARGE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ALONG THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...WITH A SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE LOWER U.S. PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH REGARD RATE OF DECAY OF TROPICAL SYSTEM...AS WELL AS EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY LATE AFTERNOON...FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ALONG THE PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON...AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CAPE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF FRONTAL ZONE. ETA PROBABLY WEAKENS REMAINS OF IVAN TOO QUICKLY... AND PRESENCE OF DEEP SURFACE LOW/SIGNIFICANT AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF TORNADOES IN TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER. BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE IN IMMEDIATE LEE OF APPALACHIANS...FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...BETTER HEATING/SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA BY AFTERNOON...WHERE FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER. ...PLAINS... WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC BROADER SCALE FLOW...MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL WARMING/WEAK SUBSIDENCE LIKELY WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR WEAK THERMAL LOW/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ALONG WESTERN FRINGE OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT FORCING ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ...NORTHWEST STATES... SCATTERED...MOSTLY WEAK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE... PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS AND THE CASCADES BY LATE TODAY...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... MOISTURE RETURN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH MAY ALSO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING... CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 12:52:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 07:52:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409171253.i8HCrqd09939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171251 SWODY1 SPC AC 171246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TRI 20 ESE PSK CHO RIC 10 SSW GSB 35 S FLO CAE SPA 35 WNW HKY 40 E TRI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E INL 50 S DLH 30 E RST 10 W IRK 35 WNW SGF 10 W MKO 40 ENE DAL 55 NNE CLL 20 SSE BPT ...CONT... 10 W ELP 40 WNW CVS 40 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD 50 NE ANW 15 NW BKX 45 WNW AXN 65 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 30 W BTM 25 N BOI 25 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S IPL 35 ENE TRM 15 SW EED 30 SSE IGM 55 WSW SOW 30 NE SAD 35 SSW DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PNS 25 NNE CEW 20 ENE MGM 35 NNW BHM 50 WSW BNA 35 SW SDF 25 SSE CAK 35 WSW GFL 15 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SC/VA/NC... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FROM PACIFIC NW TO NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE UPPER RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER SRN PLAINS. HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL OVER WA/ORE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SW-NE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND -- SHOULD PIVOT ASHORE THIS EVENING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 18/00Z-06Z. MEANWHILE...SFC AND UPPER AIR REMAINS OF TC IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEWD OVER SRN APPALACHIANS REGION. CENTER OF THIS CYCLONE SHOULD FINISH LINKING WITH SFC FRONTAL ZONE AND MOVE TO S-CENTRAL VA OR N-CENTRAL NC BY END OF PERIOD...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD TO WRN FL PANHANDLE AND NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS RETREATING NWD ACROSS OK AND SW KS AS SUBTLE WARM FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS FEATURE ALSO IS ACCOMPANIED BY PRONOUNCED SFC MOIST AXIS...WITH DEW POINTS LOW 60S TO LOW 70S F FROM SWRN KS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO N-CENTRAL TX. ...NC/VA/SC... VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF IVAN. 0-1 KM SRH SHOULD REMAIN IN 150-300 J/KG RANGE...AS ISALLOBARIC FORCING ENE-ESE OF SFC LOW MAINTAINS SOME BACKING OF FLOW...HELPING TO ENHANCE SHEAR ESPECIALLY OVER PIEDMONT AREA AND WRN PORTIONS COASTAL PLAIN. FARTHER E...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITH DISTANCE FROM CYCLONE CENTER. ALSO...KINEMATIC SUPPORT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT OVER GA AND NRN FL AS VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REDUCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE. TORNADO THREAT TENDENCY SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL TODAY BECAUSE OF THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL MODULATE DIURNAL INCREASE IN BUOYANCY ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1200-1700 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SFC INSOLATION AND DEW POINTS 70S F OVERCOMING WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN THROUGH EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS RESULT OF SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF KINEMATIC FIELDS WITH IVAN CIRCULATION. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... NRN KS ONGOING/ELEVATED TSTMS SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE AND MARGINAL BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE SUPPORTED BY 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS UNTIL LLJ WEAKENS WITH DIMINISHED VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW AND TROUGH OVER PORTIONS WRN KS...PERHAPS NW OK ALSO...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING...HOWEVER HEATING TO NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND LIFT NEAR TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES BENEATH 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WITH WEAK TO NEGATIVE 0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS DIABATIC COOLING ELIMINATES SBCAPE. ..EDWARDS/BANACOS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 15:56:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 10:56:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409171557.i8HFvId16847@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171554 SWODY1 SPC AC 171549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ILM 15 N FLO 40 WSW SOP 15 W GSO 35 SE PSK 10 S LYH 40 SSE CHO 15 N RIC 40 NNW ORF 10 SSW ORF 15 SW EWN 35 W ILM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CHS 35 ENE CAE 20 ESE SPA 35 WNW HKY 25 S BLF 35 NE SSU 15 ESE MRB 20 NE BWI 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 SSE SPA 20 ENE TYS 40 WNW HTS 25 WNW PIT 30 SE UCA 10 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 30 NNE SUN 75 NNW LOL 10 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CMX 50 WSW IWD 30 W DLH 50 W HIB 10 ENE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SSE DAG 10 WSW LAS 55 N IGM 40 ESE SOW 30 SSE ONM 55 WSW TCC 15 NNE DHT 35 SSW MCK 20 N BUB 15 WSW BKX 30 ESE RWF 30 S RST 15 N COU 25 W HRO 35 SSW PGO 20 W GGG 10 W GLS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC AND SRN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NC INTO THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE... ...NERN NC ACROSS NC INTO VA... SITUATION BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA BY TONIGHT. EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE WITH 50-60 KT SLY H5 WINDS /40-50 KT AT H85/ OVERSPREADING ESELY SFC WINDS AND A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTANT OBSERVED AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE LARGE AND YIELD SR-HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION MOVING INTO ERN SC/CENTRAL NC/SWRN VA. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF ENHANCED ASCENT...CLEARING/THINNING OVERCAST IS SUPPORTING MODEST HEATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S FROM ERN SC INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SRN VA WITH FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NET RESULT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WELL INTO THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NC/NERN SC NORTHEASTWARD. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR AND MORE MARGINAL NWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA ...PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MID 70F DEW POINTS AND ENHANCED SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES MAY SPREAD INTO THIS AREA AS WELL. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WITHIN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE A RELATIVELY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...THROUGH THE MID MORNING OVER ERN KS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO WEAKENING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPPING LIKELY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO FAR ERN KS/WRN MO AFTER 06Z. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 17 19:59:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 14:59:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409172000.i8HK0Pd17526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171958 SWODY1 SPC AC 171953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ILM 30 NE FLO RDU 15 NE DAN 25 WNW SHD 50 NNE SHD 30 SSE MRB 15 NW NHK 45 S NHK ORF EWN 25 WNW ILM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CRE 30 N CHS 20 NNW FLO 40 ESE CLT 15 NW PSK 10 NW EKN 25 S AOO 35 E CXY 10 ESE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CTY AYS 45 SE AGS 40 SSE SPA 20 ENE TYS 40 WNW HTS 25 WNW PIT 30 SE UCA 10 SE PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 30 NNE SUN 75 NNW LOL 10 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 50 ENE PHX 35 NNW SOW 35 ESE ONM 40 SSE LVS 20 WSW RTN 20 SSE LHX 30 NNW RSL 40 N GRI FSD 25 N FRM 30 S RST 25 N COU 10 ENE UMN 20 SSW BVO P28 40 S EHA 35 ESE CVS 20 S INK 75 S MRF. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN VA...MUCH OF ERN NC...AND PARTS OF SRN MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN PA / SRN NJ / ERN WV SWD INTO NERN NC... ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN HALF OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN. BROKEN N-S LINE OF STORMS EXISTS FROM ERN SC NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA...WHILE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WITH BACKED SURFACE WIND FIELD ALONG AND E OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE BENEATH STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING FLOW THROUGH 700 MB...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...DAYTIME HEATING OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS A SLOW DECREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...ENHANCED THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS -- LIKELY WELL INTO THIS EVENING. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AS WELL AS WRN PORTIONS OF MO...IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...WHEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 800 MB MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 00:59:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2004 19:59:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409180100.i8I10ad10131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180056 SWODY1 SPC AC 180051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ILM 20 E RWI RIC 40 E CHO 45 NE CHO 10 SW MRB 25 N HGR CXY 20 SW ABE 10 NNW PHL 30 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LNK OMA 10 ESE LWD 45 S IRK 25 S SZL CNU 20 NE ICT 15 WSW SLN LNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS GSB 55 SW RIC 10 SE SHD 35 W SHD MGW IPT PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PSX 30 SW AUS 25 NNE ABI 25 NNW SPS 20 SSW ADM 30 ESE DAL LFK 10 E LFT 20 N BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 10 ESE DDC 10 ENE HLC EAR MHE HON 10 NE ATY MSP 30 W LSE 15 ENE DBQ 35 W SPI 15 N SGF 10 SE BVO END GAG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 15 NW DAG 55 NNW DRA 30 NW SGU GCN GUP ABQ 65 W CVS CNM 70 SE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 10 S S80 75 E 4LW 10 SW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SRQ 15 NNE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.... ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES IN AND AROUND THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA. HOWEVER...DIURNAL COOLING OF TROPICAL-TYPE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING RISK FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ALREADY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...EAST OF WEAKENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN. THIS WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY LATE EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...IN WAKE OF TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INHIBITION IS WEAK DUE TO COOLER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE TO THAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS. AND WITH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR/ABOVE 90F...IT MAY STILL BE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/CONVECTION DIMINISHES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI VALLEY... MODELS SUGGEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING/INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO OVERCOME CAP...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AIDED BY DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD BETWEEN POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET AXES...A SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BASED ABOVE SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. PRIMARILY DUE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ARE PROGGED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 18/09-12Z. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING NOW SPREADING INTO THE OLYMPICS/ CASCADES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED/ BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. ...FLORIDA... WITH LOSS OF HEATING...SCATTERED ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 18/06Z...AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ..KERR.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 05:48:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 00:48:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409180549.i8I5nkd02023@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180547 SWODY1 SPC AC 180542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE HVR 45 NNE BIL 50 ESE WEY 35 S LND 30 NE CAG 20 W ASE 50 NE DRO 40 W TAD 35 NW CAO 40 ENE ROW 60 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW DRT 25 NNW JCT 30 SSW FTW 65 WNW LFK 25 NE HOU GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 30 NE RAL 30 N DAG 60 S EKO 30 SSE BYI 60 NE BOI 65 WSW BNO 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 15 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EWN 10 ENE GSB 45 SE LYH 25 WNW BWI 25 SE AVP BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 15 SE HIB 35 ESE BJI 55 SW DVL 70 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EMP 30 W BIE OFK 15 NW SUX 25 S FRM 25 ESE MSP 55 NE EAU 35 E AUW 30 SW PIA 40 SSW STL 35 WNW UNO 35 S UMN 20 SSW CNU 20 NNW EMP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS INDICATING AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DIGS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF SHARPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD/SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST...MEAN TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH POLAR/SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AREAS...AND WEAKENING/ELONGATING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN...WILL STILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F EAST OF THESE FEATURES...AND SHOULD BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY SHIFTING OFFSHORE...WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. FRONTAL ZONE AND SURFACE LOW ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PLAINS... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LIKELY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...AS NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND BACKS IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM UPPER FLOW PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. IS UNCERTAIN... PRIMARILY DUE TO STRENGTHENING INHIBITION BENEATH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ONE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD BE CONFLUENT BAND NEAR SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE...AND...IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL/ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. WHILE LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING...SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH-LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS NOW LIFTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO CREST OF UPPER RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...MOIST AND MUCH MORE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOURS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. ...WESTERN STATES... INFLUX OF LOWER LATITUDE MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND GREAT BASIN...AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY REDUCE SURFACE HEATING AND LIMIT BROADER SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...ON WESTERN GRADIENT OF RETURNING MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN EASTWARD INTO THIS AREA DURING THE DAY...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOUTHEAST OF UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 13:02:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 08:02:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409181303.i8ID3Ed22185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181300 SWODY1 SPC AC 181255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 20 E RAL 20 NNE LAX 10 S PMD 20 WSW DAG 30 N DAG 60 S EKO 30 SSE BYI 60 NE BOI 65 WSW BNO 60 NW UKI ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 55 NE BIL 25 SSW COD 35 S LND 30 NE CAG ASE 45 ESE GUC 40 W TAD 15 SSE TAD 40 E RTN 45 WSW CAO 30 E LVS 65 NE 4CR 10 SW ROW CNM 55 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 40 W LBB 40 E DHT 55 WSW GAG 50 W CSM 40 SSE CDS 20 NNE SEP 55 NNE CLL 25 NE HOU GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RSL LNK 25 ESE MSP 55 NE EAU 35 E AUW 30 SW PIA 40 SSW STL 35 WNW UNO 35 S UMN 30 NNW BVO RSL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL NHK DCA 25 WNW BWI ALB PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES/SHIFT INLAND OVER PACIFIC NW AND DEEP-LAYER REMAINS OF IVAN MOVE EWD OFF MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER COASTAL REGIONS. IN BETWEEN...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN GULF NWD ACROSS MO TO MN. SFC CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL INCLUDE WARM FRONT NOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH IS STALLING...AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH SFC CYCLONE. MEANWHILE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WRN/SRN NEB...ERN/NRN KS AND WRN/SRN MO. ...MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND... NARROW CORRIDOR OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND NJ FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE COLD ADVECTION STABILIZES AIR MASS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PER 12Z OKX RAOB...WITH 0-1 KM SHEARS 25-30 KT AND SRH AROUND 200 J/KG THROUGH SAME LAYER. EXPECT WEAK CONVECTIVE FORCING...HOWEVER...TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF DISCRETE TSTMS...AND SIGNIFICANT DIABATIC HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER MOST OR ALL THE FAVORABLE AIR MASS MOVES OFFSHORE. MARGINAL TORNADO AND CONVECTIVE WIND PROBABILITIES REMAIN FOR A SHORT TIME. ...MO/KS... ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY STILL PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS EPISODICALLY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SYSTEM-RELATIVE FLOW WEAKENS...ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATICALLY DRIVEN COUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 DEG C/KM AND RELATIVELY HIGH RH NEAR BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING COMPLEX...AND ANY SUCH CONVECTION ALSO MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER...PRIND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THAT TIME FRAME WILL BE LOW AND VERY CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF STRONG CAPPING. ...GREAT BASIN/NRN AZ... CONTINUED NWD/NNEWD ADVECTION OF TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE TODAY...SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORIGINS IN FORMER HURRICANE JAVIER. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED ON WESTERN GRADIENT OF RETURNING MOISTURE...AMIDST GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOST VIGOROUS CELLS MAY PRODUCE WINDS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 16:18:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 11:18:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409181619.i8IGJMd28697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181616 SWODY1 SPC AC 181611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 65 NE BIL 30 NW WRL 40 NE RWL 20 NNE LAR 25 NW COS 20 E RTN 50 NE 4CR 35 SSE ELP ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 30 NNE RAL 55 ESE U31 15 W EKO 55 NNE WMC 25 NE RBL 50 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DRT 35 ENE BGS 60 SSE CDS 35 NNE MWL 10 SSE TYR 35 SE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE HSI 45 ENE SUX 10 SSE STC 40 WSW IWD 30 ENE AUW 20 N MMO 15 NNE STL 50 ESE TBN 20 SSW UMN 15 WSW EMP 40 ESE HSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S WAL 25 SSE BWI 15 ENE ABE 30 S RUT 10 S PWM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN LONG ISLAND/EXTREME SERN NEW ENGLAND... SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IS LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW IS ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND EXTREME SERN MA. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWLY SAGGING SEWD AS SURFACE PRESSURES RISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE AS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVE NWD FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. A BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EWD...WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY 00Z AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ...SWRN UT INTO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AREA... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATE MOISTURE PLUME FROM JAVIER IS SPREADING NWD OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...WITHIN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SERN CA/WRN AZ ACROSS SERN NV INTO UT WHERE CLOUDS ARE LIMITED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ETA/GFS AND SREF OUTPUT ALL INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SERN CA AND WRN AZ...SPREADING NWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN NV/SWRN UT AND NRN AZ TONIGHT AS UPPER DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH INCREASES OVER THE SRN PLATEAU REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL AID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... CURRENT THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM OVER MO/ERN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE A CAP WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS...WITH A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAP AFTER 06Z FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWD INTO ERN IA/NWRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTING THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH A FEW LATE PERIOD STORMS. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 18 19:42:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 14:42:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409181943.i8IJhSd03646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181941 SWODY1 SPC AC 181936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W YUM 35 NNW BLH 10 SSW SGU 25 SSW BCE 20 ENE PGA 30 NNW SAD 10 SSW DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 30 NNE RAL 55 S ELY 15 NW TPH 25 S NFL 20 NW BAM 55 NNE WMC 25 NE RBL 50 SSW EKA ...CONT... 50 N GGW 65 NE BIL 30 NW WRL 40 NE RWL 20 NNE LAR 25 NW COS 20 E RTN 50 NE 4CR 35 SSE ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N DRT 35 ENE BGS 60 SSE CDS 35 NNE MWL 10 SSE TYR 35 SE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W CNK 45 ENE SUX 10 SSE STC 40 WSW IWD 30 E RHI 40 W CGX 35 NE ALN 20 SW UNO 30 NNW FSM 40 SSW ICT 45 W CNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AZ... ...SWRN CONUS... RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/ IS INDICATED ATTM ACROSS SRN AND WRN AZ AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. FAIRLY LARGE / VIGOROUS STORM HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MOJAVE COUNTY...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ ATTM. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 2246. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE UVV INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO EXIST FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH SWLY / SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING FROM W-E ACROSS THE DESERT SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WIND FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND INTO FAR SRN US FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION -- AND PERHAPS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THIS REGION AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH...ALL MODELS HINT AT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA / SERN MN / WRN WI / NWRN IL OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL. ..GOSS.. 09/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 00:53:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2004 19:53:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409190054.i8J0sYd04524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190053 SWODY1 SPC AC 190048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ SGU 40 SSE SLC 35 N RKS 25 S CPR 55 N CYS 45 NNE LHX ROW 30 S DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SUX 45 SW AXN 50 E FAR 45 ENE BJI 50 WSW IWD 20 NW RFD SPI 35 NW TBN 30 SSE OJC 40 S OMA 30 NNE SUX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 10 N VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW GGW 65 E LWT 45 NW COD 15 WNW 27U 70 E BKE 15 SSE LMT 30 NNW 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 30 NW BWD 40 N MWL 50 NNW FTW DAL 25 SSW LCH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/SRN CA... DAYTIME HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW FROM STORMS HAS MOSTLY STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GREATLY REDUCED THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN SRN CA AND WRN AZ WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER. STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN THIS AREA...BUT ANY STORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS UNTIL 03-04Z...THUS A 5% WIND PROBABILITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... ALTHOUGH 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA...WARM ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WITH STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. THE NEGATIVE FOR SEVERE IS THE SHEAR ABOVE 700 MB WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WRN STATES. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 12:55:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 07:55:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409191256.i8JCu7d06802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191253 SWODY1 SPC AC 191248 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GUP 80 SE PGA 25 WSW U17 20 WNW 4HV 20 ESE PUC 40 SSE VEL 40 NE GJT 25 WSW GUC 40 ESE DRO 40 W 4SL 25 NW GUP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WNW FCA 65 NNW 3TH 40 N 3TH 60 NNE 3DU 25 S GTF 35 WNW LWT 50 N LWT 65 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE IPL 40 NW EED 55 SW P38 60 ESE U31 30 E LOL 35 E SVE 50 WNW SVE 30 W RBL 30 NNW UKI 40 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 35 N PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW ANJ 15 N GRB 20 W JVL 25 WSW UIN 30 S IRK 25 NE LWD 20 NNW DSM 35 ESE MKT 20 SW MSP 30 N MKT 25 NW FRM 20 NE LNK 20 NE HUT 35 WSW END 25 NNW LTS 25 S CDS 50 SE LBB 65 SW SJT 50 NNE DRT 45 WSW HDO LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE AZ...NW NM...ERN UT AND WRN CO... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CREATING A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME TODAY. STILL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO REACH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE INSTABILITY WILL HELP MAINTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF AZ. THE STORM COMPLEX WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 65 TO 75 KT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM MOTION AROUND 40 KT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE MOVES NEWD ACROSS SE UT...SW CO...NE AZ AND NW NM. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SWRN AZ WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 10 C/KM. MID-LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN ACROSS NRN AZ...UT AND WRN CO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD AND SFC TEMPS WARM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE LARGE UPPER-TROUGH...MOVES NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ...DAKOTAS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE HELD BACK TIL THIS EVENING. THE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EWD TODAY WITH A MID-LEVEL JET OF 60 KT SWINGING EWD AROUND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION MOST LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR RAPID CITY AND ACROSS WCNTRL SD. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BASES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 700 MB. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO ND BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL BUT DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 16:39:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 11:39:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409191639.i8JGdud09201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191637 SWODY1 SPC AC 191632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SGU 15 NW MLF 15 NNE DPG 15 NW OGD EVW 15 W VEL 10 SE CNY 25 WNW 4BL 20 SSW U17 45 WNW PGA 15 ENE SGU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 40 WNW PRC 15 W SGU 35 NW P38 40 NNE BIH MER 15 SSW SFO ...CONT... 45 NE 63S 15 NW PUW 25 ENE S80 35 WNW LWT 60 ENE HVR ...CONT... 20 W ANJ 25 SSW MTW 20 SSE LNR 20 NW RST 15 SE SUX 35 NW P28 15 SSE CDS 35 NNE SJT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 40 WNW PBI 20 WNW VRB 15 NE ORL 40 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF UT... ...UT/WRN CO/NRN AZ AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AS A JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS UT TODAY WITH PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS UT TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD DEEP MOISTURE...ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF JAVIER...IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH FROM AZ NWD INTO UT/WRN CO/WY. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASED CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WITHIN THE DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF WRN UT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND IT IS WITHIN THIS AXIS OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT LOCAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...WHICH SUGGESTS A HIGHER CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF UT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A NORTH/SOUTH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT ATTM FROM SERN ID INTO NWRN UT...AND WE WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR POSSIBLE SWD EXTENSION INTO SWRN UT. IF THIS OCCURS...STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH INTO AZ...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE BUT MORE LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SWRN AZ WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM AZ. ...DAKOTAS... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE A CAP WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING BY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT NOW MOVING INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PREDICT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LAPSE RATES WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG) LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 19 19:54:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 14:54:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409191955.i8JJtgd07279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191954 SWODY1 SPC AC 191949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELO 40 SSW STC 15 SE SUX 35 NW P28 15 SE CDS 50 NNE JCT 20 ENE HDO 25 SSE CRP ...CONT... 30 SE YUM 40 WNW PRC 25 E SGU 25 E ELY 45 SSW NFL 10 SSE SCK 40 S UKI ...CONT... 75 NW FCA 25 W S06 20 E S80 30 NNE LWT 70 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW FMY 55 E FMY 20 WNW VRB 25 E ORL 15 SE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UT / SWRN WY... STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING -- ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET -- CONTINUES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS UT INTO WRN WY ATTM...WHERE MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS INDICATED. MEANWHILE...DRYING EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN AZ / SRN AND CENTRAL UT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INTENSITY / ORGANIZATION ACROSS UT / AZ DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. WITH DRYING / SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL / NERN UT SWD. ...ND / NRN SD... ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE -- AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS -- THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ATTM ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION / CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF WRN U.S. JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. ..GOSS.. 09/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 00:50:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2004 19:50:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409200051.i8K0p5d07938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200048 SWODY1 SPC AC 200043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 40 E ABR ANW 30 NE AIA 25 NW CDR 25 SSW REJ 15 NNW Y22 30 SE P24 60 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 15 SSE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN PRC 25 W 4BL U28 40 SSE SLC 35 SSW ENV 60 WNW ELY TPH FAT 40 ENE MRY 20 NNW UKI 35 ENE MFR 50 SSW RDM RDM PDT 40 ENE LWS 50 SW 3DU 20 ESE BTM 15 E BZN 15 NNE BIL 10 SE MLS 35 SSE SDY 75 NW MOT ...CONT... 35 W INL 45 S BJI BKX GRI 35 S RSL 25 ESE GAG SJT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...ND/SD... HIGHER BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN SWRN SD AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND INTO ND OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WY MOVES NEWD. EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MUCAPES RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT MORE IMPRESSIVE ARE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SLY WINDS UP TO 50 KT AS LOW AS 1 KM AGL. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND SOME OF THE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SEVERE GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT A 15% WIND PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...CENTRAL CA... DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DIURNAL HEATING...STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND VORTICITY MAX IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LIFT/MOISTURE/AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK CAPE AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...UT/WRN WY... DESPITE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS TOO STRONG TO MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. APPEARS THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE IS OVER...SO 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE DROPPED. ..IMY.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 13:10:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 08:10:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409201311.i8KDBRd05259@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201257 SWODY1 SPC AC 201252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLD 35 NW GLD 40 E SNY 60 E CDR 40 SE PHP 45 S PIR 30 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 10 SE BBW 15 WSW HLC 60 SW HLC 35 S GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 50 SW ROW 20 S TAD 10 N LIC 35 WSW AKO 35 ENE DEN 15 W DEN 15 SSE ASE 25 NE DRO 20 NNW FMN 30 WSW CEZ 30 ENE U17 15 ENE BCE 20 N SGU 65 N DRA 35 SSW TPH 65 S NFL 20 ESE RNO 25 ESE 4LW 15 SSW PDT 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNE FCA 25 WSW HLN 30 S HLN 30 NNE BZN 65 W MLS 45 NW REJ 30 NE Y22 50 E P24 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 80 NW CMX 30 NW RST 55 WSW DSM 30 SW FNB 15 SW SLN 40 SE GAG 45 SSW LTS 45 W ABI 50 W SJT 70 WSW SJT 45 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 40 NW ALI NIR 15 S VCT 20 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CTY 40 S AYS 30 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL NEB...FAR SRN SD...FAR NW KS AND FAR NE CO... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN PART OF SRN PLAINS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN SD WILL ORGANIZE AND DROP SWD INTO NWRN NEB BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPLY MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER WRN CO WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NEB AND WRN KS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF MLCAPE WHICH SHOULD REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY 21Z WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. INITIATION SHOULD FIRST OCCUR ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR RAPID CITY WITH CELLS LIKELY DEVELOPING SWD INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ESEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION. THE SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CAP WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT AND DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM...WILL SPREAD OUT INTO WRN NEB AND FAR WRN KS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...FAVORING AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WCNTRL NEB AND WRN KS. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 10.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE FASTER...MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ...FL... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS JUST OFF THE ERN COAST OF FL WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE MOIST AXIS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AS CELLS MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF LANDSPOUT TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG INTERACTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 16:31:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 11:31:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409201631.i8KGVsd08910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201628 SWODY1 SPC AC 201623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SNY SNY 15 NE BFF 30 WNW PIR 15 NNE PIR 10 W 9V9 20 WNW BBW 20 SSE LBF 30 ENE IML 30 SSE SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 20 SE HLN 65 W MLS 45 NW REJ 30 NE Y22 55 NE MOT ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 45 SSW RSL 40 SSW LTS 65 SE MAF 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SE ELP 45 SW CVS 40 E TAD 35 SSW LIC 25 NNW COS 15 SSE ASE 25 NE DRO 20 NNW FMN 30 ENE U17 20 N SGU 35 SSW TPH 20 ESE RNO 25 ESE 4LW 35 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE LRD 20 WNW ALI 10 SSE VCT 20 ESE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE NEWD ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN TROUGH AND AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS STATES. IN PARTICULAR...ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM WY/WRN CO INTO THE SD/NEB BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN STRONG-SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTH OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH OTHER PARAMETERS WILL AID IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL DECREASING WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...NEB/SD... A SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG LINE FROM MBG SWWD TO NEAR CDR LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SEEN SOMEWHAT RETARDED DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR...RECENT TRENDS IN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL DRYSLOT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO NOT IMPROVE GREATLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z DNR SOUNDING. WEAKER LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY WELL ENTRENCHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /16 DEG C 850 MB DEWPT AT LBF THIS MORNING/...TO SUPPORT MUCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE FRONT OVER SD IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...WHERE MID LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BE GREATEST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SWWD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO WRN NB AND EVENTUALLY FAR NERN CO SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SWD INTO NWRN KS WILL LIMIT SVR COVERAGE INTO THIS AREA. DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SEWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE...SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING A GREATER THREAT WITH TIME. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD TOWARDS ERN SD/CENTRAL NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SVR THREAT...DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM NWRN KS/ECENTRAL CO INTO WRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG / AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... DESPITE MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR PROFILES. ...FL... EARLY CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER FL APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING AS SYNOPTIC SCALE NLY FLOW AROUND LOW CENTER OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WILL LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 20 19:38:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 14:38:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409201939.i8KJdKd14752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201934 SWODY1 SPC AC 201929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW FAR 40 S 9V9 10 NE IML 50 SW IML 15 SSE AKO 30 NW AKO 25 NE AIA 35 W PIR 50 ESE BIS 30 WSW JMS 40 WSW FAR 65 SSW FAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 25 SSW MSP 25 WNW OMA 25 SSW EAR 40 S HLC 10 W DDC 20 NNE GAG 30 SSW LTS 55 SSE MAF 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP ALM ROW 25 NE TCC 25 SE PUB 25 NNE COS 35 E ASE 25 E MTJ 10 W 4BL 20 SW BCE 25 SSW P38 50 SE TPH 55 NW BIH 25 WNW TVL 65 NNE SVE BNO 35 NE BKE 90 NW FCA ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 30 NNW HLN 35 E 3HT 45 ENE SHR 15 NE 81V 45 E REJ 35 NNE Y22 55 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...NERN CO/WRN NEB/SD/SERN ND... SHARP FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNED WITH DEEP LAYER AND STRONG SSWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOIST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS FROM NERN CO INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONGEST MASS INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM NCNTRL NEB NNEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SLOW MOVING LINEAR MCS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AS FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTENSIFIES COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE TENDENCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE UNDERCUT BY SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. LATEST MLCAPE WAS ON THE ORDER OF 250-600 J/KG AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS... DEGREE OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS INTO THE EVENING. ...ERN CO/WRN KS... MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAKER FORCING ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...MARGINAL SHEAR AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...OR PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL REPORT OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 09/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 00:45:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2004 19:45:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409210045.i8L0jld27832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210043 SWODY1 SPC AC 210038 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 10 S CNM 20 SSW CVS 10 N CAO 40 N LHX 25 SSW COS 15 NW ALS 40 ESE DRO 65 S 4BL 50 NNW GCN 25 NW LAS 15 NW DAG 20 NNE BFL 15 WNW FAT 40 WNW U31 50 SW OWY BOI 75 NW FCA ...CONT... 60 ENE CTB 45 NNE BZN 45 SW BIL 30 S SHR 35 SSE GCC 20 NNE RAP 35 SW BIS 70 NNW DVL ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 25 SSW MSP 25 WNW OMA 25 SSW EAR 40 S HLC 10 W DDC 30 WNW GAG 35 SSW CDS 55 SSE MAF 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 ESE EEN BDL 35 NNW POU 40 SE UCA 20 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 40 SSE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS TO ERN SD... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN NV/ERN CA...WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND WITHIN BASE OF POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. DOWNSTREAM SSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS/MN...RESULTING IN SLOW E AND S MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT ACROSS MN AND SD/NEB. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NERN CO TO NEB AND ERN SD AS MOIST...ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES PER STRENGTHENING CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ AT 40-50 KT. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL...MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 05:25:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 00:25:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409210526.i8L5Qed04532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210525 SWODY1 SPC AC 210519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 25 SSW ANW 35 NNE ATY 25 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NW IWD 40 WSW EAU 35 NNW DSM FNB 25 NW END 25 SW LTS 40 ENE BGS 70 WSW SJT 35 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA/GFS AGREE THAT A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND ROCKIES. IN FACT...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE ERN RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE REST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT LIES BENEATH SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CO AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD TO ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...SRN/ERN NM TO CENTRAL KS... A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WEST TX/FAR ERN NM NEWD...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO KS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM/ WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT THE AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/. GIVEN THAT THIS REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 12:56:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 07:56:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409211256.i8LCuqd31298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211254 SWODY1 SPC AC 211249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N IWD 45 NNE RST 30 SSE FOD FNB 10 N END 25 S LTS 40 WSW SJT 45 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 25 SSW ANW 35 NNE ATY 10 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 40 S ALI NIR 10 NNW VCT 20 WSW HOU 30 SSW BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NEB AND ERN CO WILL MOVE SWD TODAY REACHING FAR SE NEB AND WCNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LONG LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING SSWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AND WRN OK. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD TODAY...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S F IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S F...YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM AND SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS WAIT TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS A LATER STORM INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WITH A LINE ORGANIZING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE LINE WILL PROBABLY BE NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL WINDS PARALLELING THE BOUNDARY. A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AS CELLS INITIATE AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 15:38:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 10:38:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409211539.i8LFd4d16777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211536 SWODY1 SPC AC 211531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 35 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CMX 45 WSW RHI 15 ENE DSM 30 ENE STJ 25 ENE END 25 WNW SPS 35 ESE SJT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 60 E DUG 45 WNW TCS 40 SSE GNT 45 N GNT 40 SW FMN 40 SSE PGA 45 WSW PGA 15 WNW CDC 35 WSW DPG 50 SW MLD 35 WSW JAC 35 WNW RIW 30 SSE RWL 30 ESE CYS 55 SE AIA 10 NE ANW 35 NNE ATY 10 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 45 ESE COT 60 W HOU 25 NE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... OVERALL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOW SSEWD MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TAIL END OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG HEATING AND PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIKELY AID IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN NM. UPSLOPE...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY MOIST GULF AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY HOLDING THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DESPITE MIXING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY / MLCAPES FROM 500-1500 J/KG /. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND FROM STRONGER CELLS. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY MOVE NEWD OVER COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...UT/CO/NRN NM... POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION TODAY AND ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO BECOME QUITE STEEP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE NATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWBURSTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 21 19:57:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 14:57:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409211958.i8LJw3d29893@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211954 SWODY1 SPC AC 211949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FHU 55 NE SAD 45 W ONM 25 SSW 4SL 20 WSW FMN 65 NNE INW 40 NE GCN 25 ENE CDC 20 SE DPG 25 SSW EVW 40 WNW CAG 10 W 4FC 35 SW AKO 25 NNW IML 15 ENE 9V9 25 E ATY 35 W DLH 30 SW IWD 35 NW LSE 10 W MCW 40 NNW FNB 25 E SLN 35 SE GAG 70 NE BGS 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 WNW MFE 30 SSE SAT 15 WSW CLL 25 NE GLS ...CONT... 25 N PIE 15 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NM AND WEST TX... STRONG HEATING OF MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST TX NWD INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND SIMILAR DCAPE VALUES...A COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN INITIATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX AND EXTREME SERN NM. EXPECT WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE INVOF COLD FRONT/THERMAL TROUGH INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN NM WILL RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ABOUT 25KT PER LATEST TCU PROFILER DATA...SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE PULSE/MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS REMAINING RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. WHILE A COUPLE OF SEVERE REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE...STORM COVERAGE AND EVENT DURATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN KS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE RETREATING GRADUALLY NWD/WWD FROM EXTREME SERN CO ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND MIXING OCCUR IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS NWD ACROSS WRN KS. A PREFRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE WERE EVIDENT OVER WRN KS ON LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AS TSTMS INCREASE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN/WRN KS MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED/MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH SOME CHANCE OF A COUPLE HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT. ...S FL... ACARS AND VWP DATA WERE INDICATING WIND DIRECTION VEERS STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT ACROSS S FL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONGER FLOW REQUIRED FOR GREATER SHEAR/HELICITY...AND A SUPERCELL THREAT...WAS SITUATED OVER SCNTRL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE INSTABILITY AND FORCING WERE MARGINAL. WHILE A STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY ACQUIRE ROTATION WITHIN A THE SMALL AREA WHERE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COINCIDE...TORNADO PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW. ..CARBIN.. 09/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 01:02:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2004 20:02:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409220102.i8M12od15753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220100 SWODY1 SPC AC 220055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PIE 15 N MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 30 E TCS 35 S ABQ 20 SSE 4SL 40 NNE GUP 65 NNE INW 40 NE GCN 35 NNE BCE 55 WNW PUC 30 W RKS 40 NW LAR DEN 15 SE LIC 25 NNW IML 35 S 9V9 20 NNW BKX 40 SE AXN 25 NNW MSP 20 NW RST 25 ENE FOD 25 E SLN 30 SSE GAG 65 NNE BGS DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MFE 35 WNW NIR 50 SSW CLL 25 NE GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO WRN KS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT. EWD MOVEMENT IS BEING LIMITED BY BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE UPPER FLOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY OR EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS ERN NEB TO SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WNWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. A SURFACE WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS /JUST S OF HLC/...WHILE A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT AND A WAA PROFILE EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. MORE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINTAINING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN THAT STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW AT BEST. ..PETERS.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 12:52:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 07:52:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221253.i8MCrKd16503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221250 SWODY1 SPC AC 221245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CNM 15 NNW GDP 50 NNW GDP 45 W ROW 65 NE 4CR 40 WNW TCC 20 N TCC 35 ENE TCC 50 NE CVS 40 ESE CVS 30 NNE HOB 30 NNW INK 30 S CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 30 NNW ALM 45 SSE SAF 30 WNW LVS 55 N SAF 35 ESE FMN 40 WSW CEZ 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 ENE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 45 NNW EAU 35 WNW OTM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 55 W ABI 40 WSW SJT 60 WSW JCT 35 SSE JCT 25 S AUS 30 NNW HOU 30 NE BPT 10 S BTR 10 SSW MOB 10 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM...W TX... ...ERN NM/W TX... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INVERTED LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND TEMPS IN THE 80S F THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS EWD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO ERN NM AND FAR W TX...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE DEEP SHEAR INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY STEEP AROUND PEAK HEATING. A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE TX/NM STATE-LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 16:22:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 11:22:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221622.i8MGMfd27716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221617 SWODY1 SPC AC 221616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1116 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... TESTING. PLEASE DISREGARD. THE 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ...AREA 1... TEST. ..AFWA.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 16:31:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 11:31:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221631.i8MGVud32649@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221619 SWODY1 SPC AC 221614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 45 N ROW 30 NNE LVS 55 ENE 4SL 45 S 4BL 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 NE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 WNW DSM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 40 NE ABI 35 NE SJT 10 NNW JCT 30 ESE JCT 10 SSW AUS 45 ESE CLL 20 S POE 25 NNE BTR 20 W MOB 10 SSE PNS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO CNTRL NM WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EWD. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE STRONGEST AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO PORTIONS OF ECNTRL NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL LIMIT SFC INSTABILITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW AXIS OF ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL...ROUGHLY FROM SW OF DHT TO AROUND HOB. IN THIS AREA...MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND 8-9 C/KM. HOWEVER...THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ETA FORECASTS HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION/INSTABILITY FARTHER EWD...AND THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/ETAKF SUGGEST THAT IF STORMS CAN FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND TIME PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Sep 22 19:49:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 14:49:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409221950.i8MJoKd02508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221948 SWODY1 SPC AC 221943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 45 N ROW 30 NNE LVS 30 NNW SAF 45 S 4BL 25 NNE U28 40 N VEL 35 NE RKS 45 E RWL 30 SSE CYS 10 SSW AKO 35 SSW IML 15 WNW BBW 20 SSW HON 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 WNW DSM 30 ESE CNU 35 WSW ADM 40 NE ABI 35 NE SJT 10 NNW JCT 30 ESE JCT 10 SSW AUS 45 ESE CLL 20 S POE 25 NNE BTR 20 W MOB 10 SSE PNS ...CONT... 40 N PIE 10 SE MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CO TO NRN NM...WILL BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NNEWD INTO WRN KS. SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY AT 19Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SSWWD TO WRN KS /JUST E OF DDC/ TO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...AND THEN WSWWD TO THE NORTH OF AMA TO JUST S OF TCC BEFORE CURVING NWWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. DRY SWLY FLOW ACROSS NM HAS ALLOWED THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE TO MIX EWD WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL TX INTO SERN NM/FAR SW TX. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THUS...WEAK UPPER FORCING AND WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SERN NM INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ..PETERS.. 09/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 01:04:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2004 20:04:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409230105.i8N151d20368@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230102 SWODY1 SPC AC 230057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE AMA 55 N CDS 45 SW LBB 40 N HOB 45 SSW CVS 50 NE AMA 65 ENE AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 30 W HOB 30 N ROW 30 SSE DHT 20 NW DHT 35 NW RTN 25 WNW COS 40 ESE CYS 55 ENE SNY EAR 45 WNW OFK 35 E FAR 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 25 NE MSP 40 S FOD OJC 35 ENE BVO 50 E OKC 30 NNW FTW TPL 15 SSW CLL 30 NNE HOU 10 ENE BPT 25 NNW LFT 30 E BTR 20 S GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME E CNTRL NM THROUGH PARTS OF NW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS...THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO ERN NM. A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL NM NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM ERN NM INTO NW TX AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IN THIS AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH STRONGEST STORMS... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 04Z FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW TX. STORMS IN THE TX PANHANDLE ARE BEING UNDERCUT BY THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED COLD FRONT...BUT MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH FROM ERN NM INTO NW TX WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE BASED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WITH TIME...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET LIFT NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY NOT PERSIST BEYOND ABOUT 04Z. ..DIAL.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 06:04:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 01:04:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409230604.i8N64sd05078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230602 SWODY1 SPC AC 230556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 40 NE MSP 30 NNE OTG 25 NW BKX 10 ENE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN 35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 60 N CDS 45 ESE P28 45 NNE ICT 30 NW MHK 50 WNW CNK 35 W EAR 30 N ANW 15 SSW JMS 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 75 NNW CMX 35 SSW IWD 35 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 WNW JVL 30 WNW MMO 25 NW ALN 15 ENE UNO 45 ENE LIT 25 SSE GLH 10 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 25 SW NIR 35 N VCT 10 N CLL 25 NW ACT 15 ENE BWD 25 N JCT 25 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BIL 10 NNW SHR 35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 ENE VEL 50 WSW RKS MLD 25 S SUN 65 NNE BOI 40 ENE LWS 50 SE FCA GTF 20 NNW BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN DURING THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN SD/WRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA AND INTO SE KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT FROM ERN SD SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG PORTION OF SURFACE FRONT THAT IS LOCATED WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. THE ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTIVE LINES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ADVANCING LINE OVER CNTRL/NRN MN...SOME SURFACE HEATING MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO GENERALLY AOB 800 J/KG. UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTIVE LINE IN DRY SLOT REGION ACROSS SWRN MN...NW IA AND ERN SD...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SOME DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY IF LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 13:00:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 08:00:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409231301.i8ND13d24841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 50 S DLH 25 NE MSP 20 NE MKT 20 ESE RWF 50 NW RWF 55 W AXN 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW LCH 10 NW LCH 40 SE POE 30 NNE LFT 35 SSE BTR 35 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN 35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 55 N CDS 35 NNE END 30 SSW EMP 25 NNE EMP 40 NE MHK 25 SSW BIE 40 NW CNK 25 W EAR 40 NNE ANW 45 SSW JMS 70 N GFK ...CONT... 75 NNW CMX 35 SSW IWD 35 E EAU 20 SW VOK 20 WNW JVL 30 WNW MMO 25 NW ALN 30 E UNO 55 ENE LIT 25 SSE GLH 10 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE FMY 30 S PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 10 NNW SHR 35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 SSE RKS 50 WSW RKS MLD 25 S SUN 65 NNE BOI 35 ENE LWS 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA... ...MN... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NWD ACROSS IA AND MN. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NRN MN. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN IA OR SRN MN AS ASCENT RAPIDLY INCREASES. THE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING SOMEWHAT TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY ACROSS MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN SHOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT WILL PROMOTE A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE UPPER-TROUGH. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SPEEDS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES NWD INTO SRN CANADA AND INSTABILITY DECREASES...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING. ...SRN LA... TROPICAL STORM IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE LA COAST AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN WWD MOVEMENT. WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND IVAN MOVE INLAND TODAY ACROSS FAR SRN LA. TROPICAL STORM IVAN WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE TX WITH THE NRN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER SECTIONS OF SW LA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TORNADO THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SRN LA. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 16:00:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 11:00:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409231601.i8NG1Ad31438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231556 SWODY1 SPC AC 231554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GLS 50 NNW BPT 20 WSW POE 30 NNE LFT 35 SSE BTR 35 SSE HUM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELO 50 S DLH 25 NE MSP 20 NE MKT 20 ESE RWF 50 NW RWF 55 W AXN 20 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW CMX 25 ESE IWD 40 WSW CWA 20 WSW MSN 25 NE PIA 20 W SPI 55 NNW POF 30 WSW JBR 30 NW GWO 30 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS ...CONT... 30 SSW DMN 30 ENE DMN 35 WNW ROW 40 E CVS 55 N CDS 35 NNE END 30 SSW EMP 25 NNE EMP 40 NE MHK 25 SSW BIE 40 NW CNK 25 W EAR 40 NNE ANW 45 SSW JMS 70 NNW TVF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 10 NNW SHR 35 N CPR 25 WSW LAR 55 SSE RKS 50 WSW RKS 25 WNW MLD 30 N TWF 80 N BOI 35 N S80 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SRN LA... ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL SD WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NNEWD INTO NWRN MN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN MID LEVEL DRY SLOT /EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING/ WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... APPEARS HEATING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. REGARDLESS... ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY FORMING INTO A LOW-TOPPED LINE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE THREATS OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD INCREASE. THEREFORE...CONTINUANCE OF A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK WARRANTED ATTM. ...LA COAST INTO THE UPPER TX COAST... T.S. IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WWD JUST OFF THE LA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BPT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VWP DATA FROM LCH AND LIX REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES FROM ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH WILL PERSIST FROM SRN LA INTO SERN TX. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Sep 23 19:36:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 14:36:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409231936.i8NJaod10250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231934 SWODY1 SPC AC 231933 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS 50 NNW BPT 20 WSW POE 35 SSE ESF 15 SE BTR 35 SSE HUM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 25 SSE EAU 10 SSE RST 15 ENE MKT 25 ENE RWF 40 SSW AXN 55 WNW AXN 30 NNE FAR 45 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 SW ALM 20 NNW CNM 45 NNW BGS 55 S CDS 30 ESE END 30 WSW CNU 10 ENE FLV 45 WSW DSM 25 E SUX 35 WNW OLU 25 ESE ANW 15 ESE PIR 55 NE MBG 70 N GFK ...CONT... 85 NNW CMX 30 ESE IWD 10 SSE CWA MSN 25 NE PIA 20 W SPI 55 NNW POF 30 WSW JBR 30 NW GWO 30 ENE JAN 25 ESE LUL 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BIL 35 WNW CDR 30 S BFF 25 WNW FCL 50 SE RKS 50 WSW RKS 25 WNW MLD 30 N TWF 80 N BOI 35 N S80 45 SE FCA 10 ESE GTF 15 ENE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE LA AND UPPER TX COASTS... ...NRN PLAINS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SD /N OF HON/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WARM FRONTAL OCCLUSION OVER W-CNTRL MN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA AND THEN INTO ERN OK. EXPECT LOW TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 90-100KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE: 1) AHEAD OF CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... AND 2) IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS. WITH REGARD TO 1)...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CLOUD SHIELD...HOWEVER ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITING MLCAPES TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 200-300 J/KG. A BROKEN...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR BRD TO NEAR RST...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR IS OVERWHELMING THE WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD TSTMS BECOME ORGANIZED...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST OWING TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. WITH REGARD TO 2)...BOUNDARY-LAYER IS MUCH COOLER INVOF OF SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...HOWEVER COOLER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEPER LAPS RATES ARE RESULTING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM SURFACE LOW NEWD ALONG OCCLUSION TO SURGING COLD FRONT WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS N AND NE OF SURFACE LOW IS RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...LA/UPPER TX COAST... AS OF 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CENTER OF T.S. IVAN CIRCULATION 50SW 7R4 MOVING NWWD. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SWRN LA AS WELL OVER S-CNTRL LA /W OF HUM/. HERE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS MARGINALLY STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 50-100 M2/S2 /PER LCH/NEW VWPS/. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LA COAST...PRIOR TO SHIFTING WWD INTO THE UPPER TX COAST OVERNIGHT. ..MEAD.. 09/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 01:05:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2004 20:05:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409240106.i8O16Td24911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240104 SWODY1 SPC AC 240102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 35 SE CNM 35 ENE HOB 45 NNW ABI 25 NW ADM 25 WNW JLN 15 N SGF 40 SW UNO 25 SSW PBF 15 ENE HEZ 35 SW GPT ...CONT... 45 ENE CRP 30 W ALI 15 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX 45 WSW CMX 30 NW AUW 30 NNE LSE 20 WNW RST 10 WNW MKT 35 W MSP 10 WNW STC 20 SSE HIB 35 WNW HIB 30 E TVF 30 N FAR 40 NNE JMS 15 W DVL 60 N DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NW GULF COASTAL AREA... IVAN IS NEARING THE SW LA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW NWWD MOTION INLAND TONIGHT. SEE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING GENERALLY N AND E OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SHREVEPORT LA AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CORRESPONDING LIMITED CAPE THROUGH 3 KM. A SMALL CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS N AND E OF CENTER ACROSS PARTS OF SW LA. HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL ACCELERATIONS AND STORM INTENSITIES...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVERNIGHT FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO SRN LA. ...SE MN... LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH NO LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE MN W OF THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT/UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD. THE 00Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING SHOWED AMPLE DRY AIR FROM 3-6 KM...A SHALLOW LAYER OF MARGINAL CAPE THROUGH 6 KM... STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2.5 KM AND STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH 6 KM. MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. HOWEVER... THREAT IS LIMITED BY MARGINAL CAPE AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ALTOGETHER AFTER 02Z. ..DIAL.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 12:34:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 07:34:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409241234.i8OCYtd07741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241233 SWODY1 SPC AC 241231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW 55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 50 SSW GUC 25 E CAG 35 N LAR 15 E BFF 35 WSW LBF 40 S MCK 30 WNW GCK 60 E DHT 25 E AMA 40 NNW CDS 30 SW CSM 45 N FSI 35 SSW JLN 40 NE SGF 55 ESE TBN 15 SW POF 15 NNW PBF 35 SE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...DEEP LAYER CLOSED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES INTO ONTARIO...AND WILL MERGE INTO STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. TROUGHING WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE... EXTENDING IN POSITIVELY TILTED FASHION TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY FORM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX... SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF TROPICAL CIRCULATION MIGRATING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND NEAR WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. FRONT CURVES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE LATER TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTION. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS HIGH-LEVEL FEATURE LIFTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION...WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT PROVIDE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...SOME HEATING APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR WEAKENING LOWER/MID-LEVEL TROPICAL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DESPITE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF FLOW FIELDS...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGER CELLS. THIS POSES AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS BECOMES POSITIVELY BUOYANT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE PECOS VALLEY INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/LOW... DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WELL AFTER ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND ASSOCIATED STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR/GUYER.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 16:11:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 11:11:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409241612.i8OGC9d20254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241606 SWODY1 SPC AC 241604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW 55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 45 SSW GUC 35 N MTJ 60 WSW CAG 45 SSE RWL 35 N LAR 45 W MHN 30 SW BBW 35 N HLC 25 NW GCK 60 E DHT 40 NE PVW 15 NE CDS 10 NE LTS 35 SSW JLN 40 NE SGF 45 NNW POF 30 S CGI 30 ENE DYR 35 S MKL 35 WSW UOX 45 W GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM/WEST TX... BROAD...WEAK UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED POOL OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS /-10 TO -14C AT 500MB/. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN. ...EAST TX/WESTERN LA... REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION IS NEAR LFK THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF CENTER. LOCAL VAD PROFILES SHOW MARGINAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR CIRCULATION CENTER WARRANT LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES TODAY. ..HART/BANACOS.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Sep 24 19:44:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 14:44:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409241945.i8OJjLd02749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241943 SWODY1 SPC AC 241941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 65 SSW SOW 55 ENE SOW 40 NNW GNT 35 SSE DRO 30 S MTJ 15 ENE GJT 50 WSW CAG 25 NNW RWL 25 N CPR 20 ESE 81V 45 ENE CDR 30 NW HLC 25 NW GCK 60 E DHT 40 NE PVW 15 NE CDS 10 NE LTS 35 SSW JLN 20 WSW TBN 25 N SLO 35 NNW EVV 45 NW HOP 15 WNW MKL 55 SW MEM 45 W GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM/WRN TX... MESOANALYSIS PLACES DIFFUSE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX WWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS INTO E-CNTRL NM /S OF CVS/. IT IS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY THAT STRONGEST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PERSISTED...NAMELY OVER SERN NM. DISSIPATING LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX WWD ACROSS NM. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO SWRN TX WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM THE SRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS SWD TO THE SACRAMENTOS...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THIS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY 20-25 KTS IN THE 6-7 KM LAYER. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT BRIEF ROTATION/ CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2256. ...SERN TX/WRN LA... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION NEAR LFK WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL LA TO VICINITY OF POE. CURRENT DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG SABINE RIVER VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 500 J/KG. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF CIRCULATION EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. HERE...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..MEAD.. 09/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 00:43:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2004 19:43:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409250043.i8P0hkd28690@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250041 SWODY1 SPC AC 250040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUG 55 E SOW 25 SSE GNT 20 S 4SL 40 NNW 4SL 20 NNE CEZ 55 N GJT 15 NW RWL 15 ESE DGW 35 WSW MHN 30 NW HLC 20 NE GCK 45 NNE AMA 40 SE AMA 15 NE CDS 20 E OKC 35 NW FYV 20 SSW TBN 30 WNW SLO 35 ENE MVN 35 ESE PAH 15 WNW MKL 55 SW MEM 15 WNW GLH 25 ESE MLU 15 ENE BTR 15 WSW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NM THROUGH WRN TX... THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN OK SWWD THROUGH NW TX...THEN BECOMES POORLY DEFINED ACROSS SW TX. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX...AND THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR INITIATING NEW THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...OVERALL TRENDS IN INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. A MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MN IS SPREADING EWD INTO S CNTRL NM. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER IS WITHIN A REGION OF DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN AZ. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN THE SELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER SERN NM THIS EVENING. THE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH ASCENT AND MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING LATE OVER S AND SERN NM WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SRN NM MAY ALSO HELP TO INITIATE NEW STORMS AS IT MOVES E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT MAINTAINING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 05:32:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 00:32:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409250532.i8P5Wfd27771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250530 SWODY1 SPC AC 250528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW HYA 30 NE EKN 30 E PKB 25 NW HLG 15 W FKL 15 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 35 S SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FHU 40 SSW INW 25 W EGE 30 ESE CYS 25 WNW MHN 10 N EAR 50 NE HLC 55 SW HLC 40 SSW LBL 30 WNW CDS 40 W SPS 35 NE JBR MKL 30 NE UOX 15 NNW ESF 15 W 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...FL... HURRICANE JEANNE LOCATED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING WWD AT 10 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SOMETIME AFTER LANDFALL. HOWEVER... EXACTLY WHEN JEANNE WILL BEGIN THE MORE NWD TURN IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL FOR FARTHER INLAND PENETRATION...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL COASTS N AND E OF THE CENTER. THREAT MAY SPREAD FARTHER INLAND OVERNIGHT. ...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO ONTARIO WILL DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD OVER THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION AND INTO THE NERN STATES AND SE CANADA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN MAINE SWWD THROUGH NY AND PA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NE U.S. AND MAY TEND TO LIMIT DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. GIVEN TENDENCY FOR UPPER TROUGH TO DE AMPLIFY... PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND VEERED TO WSWLY. HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OH VALLEY SHOULD ADVECT ENEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 60 EXPECTED. CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MAY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN PREVIOUSLY LIMITING FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL SUPPORT STORMS PERSISTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM AND W TX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM WITHIN REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEBRIS FROM THE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY SERVE TO LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA SATURDAY. WHERE SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR... ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM AS WELL A ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ONCE AGAIN ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 12:29:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 07:29:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409251230.i8PCUAd06369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251228 SWODY1 SPC AC 251227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE MIA 45 NE FMY 40 ENE PIE 15 SSW GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 25 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 50 SSE FLG 30 SSW MTJ 30 NNW FCL 20 NW MHN 20 S BBW 35 N HLC 35 E LAA 10 SW EHA 35 NNW CDS 65 SW SPS 20 NNW MWL 55 SE HRO JBR UOX 10 NNW ESF 35 W 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BOS 30 N JFK 35 ENE EKN 30 SW MGW 15 SW BFD 25 NNW PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN FLORIDA.... STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. DEEP CLOSED LOW...WHICH LIFTED OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND MERGED INTO THIS FLOW REGIME DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS... CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC/THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HURRICANE JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS AROUND THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...LIKELY INTO THE VERO BEACH AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA UNTIL INFLUX OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MID 70S+ DEW POINTS OCCURS WITH APPROACH OF JEANNE THIS EVENING. UNTIL CIRCULATION CENTER MIGRATES INLAND AROUND 26/06Z... RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN OUTER BANDS MAY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...NORTH OF VERO BEACH INTO THE VICINITY OF MELBOURNE AND PERHAPS JACKSONVILLE. THEREAFTER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE ORLANDO AREA AS WELL...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL AWAIT INCREASING POSITIVE BUOYANCY OF TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ...NORTHEASTERN U.S... SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING EASTERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND/THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AT LEAST WEAK LIFT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH NARROW PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF DEW POINTS NEAR 60F...BUT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES...THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW LIKELY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS REMAINING STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES OVERTURNED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THEREAFTER...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW...IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO WARM ENOUGH TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SIGNIFICANT CAPE. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE SEVERE THREAT. ...EAST TEXAS... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THIS REGION COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 16:11:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 11:11:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409251612.i8PGCMd15065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251605 SWODY1 SPC AC 251604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 25 NW AYS 20 ESE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSM 10 SSE BDL 20 WNW ABE 30 ESE PSB 15 NE DUJ 20 E JHW 10 N ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 60 ESE PRC 70 ESE PGA 20 E GJT 35 SW LAR 25 NE AIA 25 NNE MHN 30 WNW EAR 40 W RSL 30 WNW EHA 20 SE DHT 70 NNE ABI 30 N MWL 25 SSW DUA 25 SSW HRO 30 SW JBR 40 SSW MEM 25 WNW GWO 30 WNW HEZ 20 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONFINED TO CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE HURRICANE JEANNE APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA. OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...ONLY MINOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. ...FL... HURRICANE JEANNE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN PBI-MLB THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AHEAD AND NORTH OF CENTER. THREAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS EYE MOVES INLAND AND BEGINS A NORTHWARD TURN. ...NEW ENGLAND... FAST WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING ALONG FRONT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHWARD INTO ME. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. ...NM... PERSISTENT MID LEVEL COLD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -14 OVER NM. MORNING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE WEAK...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ..HART.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Sep 25 19:42:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 14:42:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409251943.i8PJh4d26195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251939 SWODY1 SPC AC 251938 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 25 NW AYS 20 ESE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PSM 10 SSE BDL 20 WNW ABE 30 ESE PSB 15 NE DUJ 20 E JHW 10 N ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 60 ESE PRC 70 ESE PGA 20 E GJT 35 SW LAR 25 NE AIA 25 NNE MHN 30 WNW EAR 40 W RSL 20 ENE EHA 60 NE AMA 30 WSW LTS 30 N MWL 25 SSW DUA 30 S UMN 25 N ARG 40 SSW MEM 25 WNW GWO 30 WNW HEZ 20 SSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN FL PENINSULA... ...FL... AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE APPROXIMATELY 100 E OF PBI WITH A WNWWD MOVEMENT OF AROUND 14 MPH. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE NWWD TRACK WITH TIME WITH CENTER LOCATION OVER THE CNTRL PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AND TORNADO POTENTIAL/ IN NW-NE QUADRANT OF HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL E COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NWD OR NWWD SHIFT OF THIS ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2258. ...SERN AZ/SRN NM/FAR WRN TX... DIABATIC HEATING IN WAKE OF DECAYING TSTM COMPLEX OVER WRN TX...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AZ HAVE AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NM AND E-CNTRL AZ. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...NEW ENGLAND... REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N OF EFK TO N OF SYR. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED INSOLATION AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 200-400 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM NWRN VT INDICATES A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KTS. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WHETHER INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS PERSIST...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TEND TO DISCOURAGE ANY SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ..MEAD.. 09/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 00:50:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2004 19:50:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409260051.i8Q0pAd25374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260048 SWODY1 SPC AC 260046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE MIA 35 E SRQ GNV 30 W JAX 10 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 50 E PHX 65 SSW 4BL 25 ESE GJT 30 SSE LAR 35 SW SNY 10 NNE LIC 10 SSW RTN 45 SW AMA 55 W ABI 20 ESE SJT 35 ENE JCT 30 WSW TPL 45 ENE CLL 10 ENE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 15 SSW AYS 25 S SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN 2/3 OF FL AND SERN GA... ...SYNOPSIS... BELT OF STRONGER / PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD. OTHER THAN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SERN AZ / SWRN NM / NRN MEXICO...FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK / NONDESCRIPT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN HURRICANE JEANNE...WHICH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE SERN FL COAST. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE NWWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING HURRICANE JEANNE...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ...FL / FAR SERN GA... LITTLE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF JEANNE OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND AREA WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY DATA CONFIRMS THAT OUTER BAND CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. WITH EVENING RAOBS INDICATING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT TORNADO THREAT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW. NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN FL -- MAINLY N OF THE CENTER...AS A COUPLE OF BRIEF SPIN-UPS WITH MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..GOSS.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 16:15:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 11:15:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409261616.i8QGGHd15723@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261612 SWODY1 SPC AC 261610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB AGR PIE ...CONT... 30 S TLH ABY 60 E MCN 30 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DUG 45 WSW FMN 35 W MTJ 45 S CAG 45 NNW 4FC 15 ENE DEN 30 SSE LAA 15 WNW GAG 30 ESE LTS 30 NNW TYR 35 NE LFK 20 NNE BPT 20 S BPT ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SE CSG 20 NNE FAY 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CMX 50 N EAU 10 S FSD 25 SSE MHE 30 NE 9V9 40 WSW ABR 40 S JMS 10 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BIL 25 E RIW 35 NW BPI 35 ENE OWY 95 NNW WMC 45 NNW LMT 30 NNW RDM 30 WNW PDT 35 ESE GTF 15 E LWT 45 ESE BIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...GA...AND SOUTHERN SC... ...FL/GA/SC... JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WNWWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WELL AWAY FROM CIRCULATION CENTER...OVER NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA. THESE AREAS ALSO APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TROPICAL TORNADOES IN THESE REGION. THREAT MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MORE OF GA/ SOUTHERN SC THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE... AND COASTAL FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES INLAND. REF MCD #2262 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES...AND PARTS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THESE REGIONS WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..HART/BANACOS.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Sep 26 19:40:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 14:40:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409261940.i8QJeud18416@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261938 SWODY1 SPC AC 261936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 30 W AGR 25 N PIE ...CONT... 30 S TLH ABY 35 SW AGS 20 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DUG 45 WSW FMN 35 W MTJ 35 S RWL 10 NE LAR 35 E FCL 30 SW LIC 10 NE LAA 35 NE GCK 35 ESE DDC 50 W END 30 ESE LTS 30 NNW TYR 35 NE LFK 20 NNE BPT 20 S BPT ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SE CSG 20 NNE FAY 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CMX 50 N EAU 10 S FSD 25 SSE MHE 30 NE 9V9 40 WSW ABR 40 S JMS 10 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SHR 15 NNW LND 60 W BPI 45 SW TWF 90 SE BNO 30 NW BNO 70 NE RDM 30 WNW PDT 30 ESE GTF 50 N BIL 30 NW SHR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...GA AND SC... ...FL/GA/SC... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE CENTER OF JEANNE APPROXIMATELY 50 NNE PIE MOVING NWWD AT 10 MPH. PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...A CONTINUED NWWD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO TURNING MORE NLY TOWARD THE GA BORDER OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND BRIEF TORNADOES EXISTS OVER THE NERN FL PENINSULA WHERE A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND RESULTANT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ ARE CO-LOCATED WITH REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 PER JACKSONVILLE VWP/. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... EXPECT THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SHIFT INLAND AND NWD WITH TIME WITH TORNADO THREAT INCREASING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SERN AND S-CNTRL GA. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2263. ..MEAD.. 09/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 00:22:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2004 19:22:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409270023.i8R0N0d12714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270020 SWODY1 SPC AC 270019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE TLH ABY 40 SSE MCN 40 SSW AGS 25 ENE CHS ...CONT... 25 N MLB 35 W ORL 15 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WRL 10 ESE LND 10 WSW SUN 20 ENE BOI 90 NW OWY 45 WSW BNO 45 NE RDM 10 NW ALW 45 E HLN 20 SE 3HT 15 S WRL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW DUG 45 WSW FMN 25 SW ASE 55 ENE CAG 20 ENE CYS 25 S SNY 20 E LIC 15 E LAA 20 NE GCK 35 ESE DDC 40 NE GAG 25 N CDS 45 NE SJT 15 NE COT 40 NNE BRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 WNW ABY 10 N MCN 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL / S CENTRAL AND SERN GA / FAR SERN SC... ...NRN FL PENINSULA / S CENTRAL AND SERN GA / FAR SERN SC... JEANNE...NOW CENTERED OVER THE NWRN FL PENINSULA APPROXIMATELY 45 SSE CTY...CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NNWWD. LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATE THAT THE STORM WILL CURVE MORE NWD WITH TIME AND APPROACH THE FL / GA BORDER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS BEEN ADVECTED WWD INTO NRN FL / S GA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN-LAYER CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /35 TO 45 KTS SFC-1 KM SHEAR AND 500 TO 600 M2/S2 SFC-1 KM HELICITY ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/ SUGGEST THAT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN PRONOUNCED BAND EXTENDING ATTM FROM OFF THE NERN FL COAST NWWD INTO THE JAX AREA AND THEN WWD ALONG THE FL / GA BORDER. SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE CONTAINED LOW-LEVEL VELOCITY COUPLETS...AND THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE AS THIS BAND SHIFTS NWD WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 15:45:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 10:45:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409271547.i8RFlId00757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271542 SWODY1 SPC AC 271540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRE CHS 30 SE AGS CAE 35 SSW SOP FAY 10 SSW ILM 15 SSE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE SSI AYS 55 SSW AGS 30 WNW CAE 50 NNW RWI 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE APN 10 SW OSH 20 SSW ALO 20 WNW FNB 35 SW P28 60 S CDS 20 NE HDO 20 E CRP ...CONT... 30 W ELP ONM 35 NNE CEZ 10 W PUC 30 NW ENV 65 ESE 4LW 20 SSE MFR 30 WNW MFR 25 SW SLE 25 SSE PDX 35 WSW PDT 50 SE S80 10 ENE MQM 30 SSW SHR 30 ENE ATY 10 SE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 35 S GNV GNV MGR 30 W MCN 55 S PSK 25 S CHO 10 S BWI 20 N PHL 20 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... REMNANTS OF JEANNE ARE OVER SOUTHERN GA THIS MORNING...AND WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ...GA/SC/NC... CENTER OF JEANNE IS NEAR ALBANY GA AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH OF GA AND WESTERN SC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER EASTERN SC. THIS AREA IS ALONG A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SC AND SOUTHEAST NC MAY SEE ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /ENHANCED NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES/ COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT OF TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS FARTHER WEST OVER NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN SC/NC SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Sep 27 20:01:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 15:01:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409272003.i8RK3Od14172@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271959 SWODY1 SPC AC 271958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 20 SSE FLO 20 N FLO 45 SW SOP 15 N SOP RDU 25 NW RWI 25 NNW EWN 35 SSE EWN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 50 ESE AGS 25 NE AGS 30 WNW CAE 60 NNE RWI 25 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP ONM 45 SSW MTJ PUC ENV LMT 30 WNW MFR SLE PDT 50 SE S80 COD 45 NNE SHR PHP 10 SE DLH ...CONT... APN OSH ALO FNB P28 LTS AUS 40 SSE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 20 WSW JAX 40 ESE VLD 55 SE MCN 30 W MCN 55 S PSK 25 S CHO DCA 25 NNW ILG 20 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE DAB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SC AND ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL/ERN SC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN NC... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS CONTAINS PRONOUNCED/POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN ONT...ERRATICALLY MOVING AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FAR W TX...BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK PERTURBATIONS OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES...ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER MT...AND DEEP-LAYER REMNANTS OF T.C. JEANNE. NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER WEAKENING OF JEANNE AND ONSET OF ITS NEWD ACCELERATION NEAR END OF PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES JEANNE HAS LINKED WITH SRN END OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ALONG ERN PIEDMONT AND WRN COASTAL PLAIN TO NERN NC. ISALLOBARIC FALL AXIS JUST W OF FRONT INDICATES SOME WWD DRIFT POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW APCHS. FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE NWWD AS WARM FRONT INTO REMAINDER NERN NC AND SERN VA. MEANWHILE...EACH PERTURBATION FROM TX TO MT AND W COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUPPORT REGIONAL GEN TSTM POTENTIAL...DESPITE DEFICIENCIES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY. ...ERN CAROLINAS AREA... REF SPC WW 844 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION. THREAT FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLY SHEARED/BUOYANT SECTOR OF T.D. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AT PROBABILITIES GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MDT CATEGORICAL RISK...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SPIRAL/CONVERGENCE BAND NOW CONTAINING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER ERN SC. THIS ZONE OF MAXIMIZED LIFT -- ALSO LOCATED JUST INSIDE LEADING EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR -- SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS SC/NC BORDER REGION. OTHER SMALLER BANDS AND DISCRETE CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM SW OF OUTER BAND...ALSO CONTAINING OCCASIONAL MINI-SUPERCELLS. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SERVE AS WRN BOUND FOR GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL...SINCE TO ITS W...AIR MASS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AND CONVECTIVE INFLOW MORE ELEVATED ABOVE SFC. 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG SHOULD SHIFT/SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MOST OF OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD...ALONG WITH VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL AND ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. MODIFIED 18Z RAOBS INDICATE MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG FOR REMAINDER DIURNAL CYCLE...DROPPING TO 200-800 J/KG RANGE AFTER APPROXIMATELY 28/06Z. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT -- AS DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL INSTABILITY LESSENS...SUPERCELLS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC...BUT SOME NOCTURNAL TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS INVOF NC/VA BORDER BY END OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 01:08:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2004 20:08:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409280109.i8S19md26404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280107 SWODY1 SPC AC 280105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 45 SE CAE 35 SE SPA 20 SE GSO 50 NNW RWI 25 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 35 NNE ALM 20 NNE TCS 50 WNW ONM 40 ESE FMN 15 SW CEZ 15 NW U17 25 WSW BCE 50 SSE SLC SLC 50 SE EKO 35 S OWY 65 NE BOI 45 SSW 27U 35 WNW COD 40 S GCC 10 SSW GLD 10 NNW GRI 30 ESE SUX 60 ENE OMA 55 SE OMA FNB P28 LTS 55 S AUS 55 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SAV 40 S CAE 20 WNW CAE 35 ESE AND 40 WSW GSO 25 S CHO 25 NNW ILG 20 NE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS... ...ERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS... T.D. JEANNE -- NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GA -- CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD TOWARD SC ATTM. NE OF JEANNE...COASTAL FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY AGS TO RDU. AIRMASS NEAR AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. STRONGEST BAND ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE EXTENDS ROUGHLY SSE-NNW ACROSS ERN SC ATTM...WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS N AND E OF THIS BAND. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF JEANNE...FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STABILIZATION OF AIRMASS. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY AFTER 28/06Z. IN THE MEAN TIME...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS -- AND PERHAPS WITHIN MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER ERN SC. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 05:22:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 00:22:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409280524.i8S5O2d29097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280522 SWODY1 SPC AC 280519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S EWN 30 NE FAY 30 SSE DAN 30 SE LYH 35 NNE RIC 35 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN DRA 45 WNW BIH 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 40 N BOI 25 ESE 27U 60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35 WSW LHX 50 SW RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 20 WSW LTS 35 NNW ABI 15 NNE SAT 20 ESE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 20 SSW ALM 30 NNW SVC DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE 35 SW GSO 30 SSW SHD 25 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW OWY 75 NNW WMC 20 S LOL 30 NW TPH 40 WSW ELY 15 SE ENV TWF 40 NNW OWY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN MD / SRN DE... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO CANADA THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL BRUSH THE GREAT LAKES / NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. FURTHER WEST...RELATIVELY WEAK / BROAD TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE LOWS / SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...FORECAST INVOF THE N CENTRAL SC / S CENTRAL NC BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAKENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WITH TIME AND SHOULD REACH THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 29/00Z...AT WHICH TIME IT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED NERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. REMNANTS OF JEANNE -- ALONG WITH COLD FRONT -- WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...NERN NC / SERN VA / SRN DE / SRN MD... ALTHOUGH TUESDAY SHOULD PROVE LESS ACTIVE THAN MONDAY IN TERMS OF TORNADO POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY MOIST / SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF TC JEANNE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH JEANNE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY OFFSET ANY WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD...ALLOWING ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST / SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING...TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF WITH JEANNE FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE / MERGE WITH COLD FRONT IN THE 29/00-03Z TIME FRAME. ..GOSS.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Sep 28 12:45:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2004 07:45:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200409281247.i8SClNd09845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281245 SWODY1 SPC AC 281244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S EWN 50 SW ECG 60 WNW ECG 40 SSE CHO 45 ENE CHO 25 SE BWI 25 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 20 SSE DRA 55 N NID 55 NW NID 35 NNE RBL 35 ENE ACV 50 ESE OTH 30 SE PDX 45 NNW BOI 25 ESE 27U 60 SE HVR 20 SSW P24 25 E Y22 25 NNE CYS 15 S DEN 35 WSW LHX 20 N RSL 40 ENE BVO 30 E MLC 10 WSW ADM 25 SE SPS 15 WNW SEP 10 S AUS 20 ESE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 25 SE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ILM 25 NE RWI 30 E LYH 20 ESE HGR 30 NNW HYA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA... ...EXTREME ERN NC NWD INTO DELMARVA... 1000 MB REMNANT JEANNE LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KCLT-KGSP AT 12Z AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NC AND SERN VA TODAY/TONIGHT. COASTAL/WARM FRONT HAD REDEVELOPED INLAND THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LAST NIGHT AND MID 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WERE COMMON EAST OF THE BOUNDARY AT DAYBREAK. DOMINANT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NNEWD WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL CLEAR EXTREME ERN NC THIS MORNING...SERN VA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DELMARVA REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING SINCE ABOUT 10Z...BUT MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN AS HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS. LATEST VWP FROM WAKEFIELD SUGGESTS AROUND 160 M2/S2 OF SRH IN THE LOWEST 1KM...FOR DEVIANT RIGHT MOVING CELL. THOUGH THIS IS WEAKER THAN VALUES OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO/ DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC...SERN VA OR DELMARVA AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THREATS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME OWING TO SOMEWHAT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. ANOTHER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE EXISTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SC/NC BORDER...EFFECTIVELY A DEMARCATION OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER WORKING NEWD. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THIS ZONE GIVEN CLOUDS/WEAK INSTABILITY AND DISPLACED LARGE SCALE MASS CONVERGENCE FARTHER NE. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.