From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 05:13:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 00:13:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410020515.i925FNt11748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020512 SWODY1 SPC AC 020511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILG 35 ESE RIC GSB 30 W SOP 45 WNW GSO ROA 10 E EKN 40 SE LBE 20 SSW PSB 10 SSE IPT 20 W ABE 10 E ILG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 30 N FLG 55 WNW GCN 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 45 SW SVE 30 NE WMC 40 WNW OGD 25 SSW RKS 45 NE CAG 15 NE 4FC 40 W RTN 50 W CVS 35 NW MAF 20 ESE BWD 20 WSW SHV 25 E GLH 25 ENE SDF 25 WNW CLE ...CONT... 15 NW EFK PWM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT FEATURE FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE SRN STATES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL START SATURDAY FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...TO CNTRL TX. NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE MOST RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AIDED BY MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FAR WRN EXTENSION OF THE SAME FRONTAL ZONE WILL BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. ...MID ATLANTIC... ANTECEDENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. THIS DESTABILIZATION MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE... INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD AID DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND LEAD TO AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NWD INTO PA. RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS JUSTIFY AT LEAST 15 PERCENT HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES. ..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 12:38:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 07:38:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410021239.i92Cdbt26157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021237 SWODY1 SPC AC 021235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN DOV GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY LYH MRB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK PWM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA ...CONT... 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 30 N FLG 55 WNW GCN 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE OWY MLD 25 SSW RKS 45 NE CAG 4FC 40 W RTN 50 W CVS 60 NW ABI SEP SHV GLH BWG 25 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NC TO ERN PA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...AND WSWLY SRN STREAM JET FROM NRN BAJA ACROSS AR TO WV. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LS/WI/UPPER MI -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH TODAY...AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONT AND SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...NWRN LA...TO BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX -- IS FCST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD. FRONT SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY AROUND 02/18Z BY SFC TROUGH FROM NC PIEDMONT NNEWD TO CENTRAL NY. COLD FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND S TX INTO NWRN GULF BY 03/12Z. WRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL PENETRATE SWRN NM AND WEAKEN. A FEW AREAS OF MARGINAL TO SLGT SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY FROM NERN CONUS TO SWRN DESERTS. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS TODAY...MAINLY INVOF PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN CONCERN SHOULD BE DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS...DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 03/00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EACH FCST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SIZE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...RESULTING IN UP TO 250 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS ERN PA/NRN MD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH BOW ECHOES AND ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING SFC INSOLATION...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT IN A FEW AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUD BREAKS. WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL VA SWD...EXPECT MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM 800-1500 J/KG. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS MULTICELL TSTMS ONGOING IN LINEAR MCS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT -- FROM TOLEDO BEND AREA OF TX/LA BORDER WSWWD TOWARD SAT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SWD TOWARD MID/UPPER TX COAST...AND REMAINS OF MCS MAY BACKBUILD/PROPAGATE SSWWD TOWARD LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANY TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY BE UNDERCUT BY CAA RELATED TO PRIOR OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS FRONT ITSELF. HOWEVER...AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND COAST SHOULD HEAT DIABATICALLY DURING DAY...COMBINING WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL TSTMS. ...S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...FAR W TX... CONTINUED FRONTAL SURGE SWWD OVER THIS REGION -- FOLLOWED BY ISALLOBARIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CA -- WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ELY FLOW COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS TODAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY VEERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN UP TO 60 KT 0-6 KM NET SHEAR...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK CAPE...RELATED TO POSTFRONTAL NEGATIVE THETAE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 16:38:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 11:38:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410021640.i92GeFt11250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021636 SWODY1 SPC AC 021634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN DOV GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY LYH MRB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N EFK 15 NNW LCI 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA ...CONT... 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 40 S FLG 65 NE IGM 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 20 W OWY 35 SE IDA 25 SSW RKS 30 SSW LAR 15 NW DEN 25 WNW TAD 35 SW TCC 20 NW ABI 30 WNW ACT 40 SSW GGG GLH 45 E MKL 25 ESE SDF 10 NNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY N INTO HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS SWEEPS E/NE INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISTINCT FROM THE SRN PLNS E TO THE NC CST. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL IN THIS BAND OF FLOW OVER NM/SW TX ...DOWNSTREAM FROM DISTURBANCE OFF THE SRN CA CST. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON VLY ACROSS CNTRL MD AND CNTRL NC INTO N GA BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN TX...WRN PART OF SAME FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW FROM MCS NOW OVER THE REGION NEAR SAT AND N OF VCT. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE CORRIDOR IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS FROM NC NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL MD/S CNTRL PA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SLIGHTLY STEEPEN AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE ERN GRT LKS. COUPLED WITH FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT MEAN MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 TO POSSIBLY 1500 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS STRONGEST UVV LIFTS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED S OF THE PA/NY BORDER. BUT DIURNAL HEATING OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK FORECAST REMAINS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF PA/MD/VA/NC. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...S TX... MULTICELL MCS NOW OVER S TX IS PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY S LATER TODAY AS SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER REGION. WLY FLOW ABOVE FRONT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME BACK-BUILDING/WWD DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW DIMINISHES. S OF THE S TX MCS/S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE S TX CSTL PLN AND OVER PARTS OF DEEP S TX...WHERE STRONG HEATING OF WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. ...S CNTRL AND SRN NM/FAR SW TX.. SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT WWD IN WAKE OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING S TX AND POINTS E WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND FAR SW TX LATER TODAY. FACTORS OFFSETTING MORE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE INCREASED MIXING AND GRADUAL INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD INTO MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROXIMITY OF SRN STREAM JET WILL PROVIDE AMPLE /50 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 20:05:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 15:05:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410022006.i92K6ct20420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022001 SWODY1 SPC AC 021959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN 15 WSW ORF GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY 15 ESE LYH 15 SSE PSB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 40 S FLG 60 NNE IGM 30 WNW LAS 30 N NID 40 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 20 W OWY 35 SE IDA 25 SSW RKS 30 SSW LAR 15 NW DEN 10 SW TAD 30 NW CNM 15 ENE FST 55 WSW JCT 25 WSW AUS 55 NE CLL GLH 40 N MSL 45 ESE LOZ 15 NE PIT 30 NW ROC ...CONT... 10 N EFK 15 NNW LCI 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 20 SW DAB 35 NW AGR 40 SW AGR 35 ENE FMY 15 NNE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...ERN PA SWD TO CENTRAL NC... DEEP WLY FLOW /GENERALLY ABOVE 1 KM/ WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/ SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES NEWD INTO QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY TO WRN PA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF VA/NC. FULL SUN OVER NC TO SRN DELMARVA HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MORE CLOUDS NWD ACROSS PA HAS LIMITED AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VA/NC ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS AND EVENTUALLY WITH COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE SAME AIR MASS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ...S TX... COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS DEEP S TX. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG/ ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN TX IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FRONTAL FORCING AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY. ..PETERS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 00:37:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 19:37:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410030038.i930cut09088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030036 SWODY1 SPC AC 030035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E DUG 15 E SOW 50 NE FLG 50 ESE SGU 35 NNW LAS 25 NNW NID 40 SE FAT 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 45 N OWY 35 ESE IDA 15 SSE RKS 30 S LAR 30 NE DEN 45 NE CAO 40 NW CNM 40 SW FST 25 WSW HDO 25 SE SAT 40 N HOU 40 E MLU 15 SSE MSL 30 NE TRI 20 ENE AOO 20 SW ART ...CONT... 35 ENE EFK 20 SSE MWN 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE JAX 55 SSE CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NJ SWD ACROSS ERN NC... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SWWD ACROSS WV TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG FRONT OVER ERN PA...AS WELL AS ALONG AND E OF TROUGH IN LEE OF CNTRL APPALACHIANS FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD INTO ERN NC. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SERN VA/ERN NC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO A SECONDARY...WEAKER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ OBSERVED ON 00Z WAL SOUNDING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED TSTMS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING WILL BE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FROM NJ SWD INTO ERN NC. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE 6-7 KM /AS OBSERVED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z...IN ADDITION TO A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 12:46:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 07:46:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410031247.i93Clxt28297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031245 SWODY1 SPC AC 031243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 25 NNW SVC 60 W ONM 20 NNE ONM 30 ESE 4CR 40 NE CNM 35 SE CNM 55 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 WSW BFF 10 ENE LHX 40 N EHA 30 SE DDC 55 WSW TUL 40 SSW ADM 35 S BWD 20 NW AUS 40 NNW BPT 25 W LFT 35 NE MOB 50 E CHA DAN 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND ADJACENT W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... TWO MID-LEVEL FEATURES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM JET -- ONE MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREATS ACROSS ERN AZ / THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF NM / W TX AND SERN GA / SC / SRN NC RESPECTIVELY. ...ERN AZ / CENTRAL AND SRN NM / W TX... SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ATTM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS -- ONE OVER NERN AZ / NWRN NM AND THE OTHER ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MODESTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS YIELDS MEAN-LAYER CAPE MAINLY AOB 1000 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW / 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM INTO FAR W TX...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- IS ANTICIPATED. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN GA / MUCH OF SC / S CENTRAL AND SERN NC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN GA...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD / SEWD ACROSS ERN GA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...MODERATE WLY FLOW THOUGH A DEEP LAYER SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER / MORE ORGANIZED STORMS -- PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 16:31:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 11:31:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410031632.i93GWXt10989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031630 SWODY1 SPC AC 031628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DMN 30 NNW SVC 55 W ONM 20 NNE ONM 35 ESE 4CR 40 NE CNM 35 SE CNM 55 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL 10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 30 NE HEZ 20 ESE 0A8 50 E CHA 15 ENE DAN ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN NM AND SWRN TX... ...SRN/ERN NM AND SWRN TX... LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN TX/SRN NM INTO E-CENTRAL NM. THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SWRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM ELP YIELDS SBCAPE AROUND 2200 J/KG...WITH FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING MORE THAN ADEQUATE. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NM. OTHER...MORE ISOLATED...STORMS MAY FORM INTO E-CENTRAL NM/NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES...EXPECT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS MOVE E-SEWD AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATE IN ONE OR TWO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTH TX PLAINS. ...SRN ATLANTIC... RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND SERN GA...WHILE SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINS A THREAT OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 20:12:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 15:12:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410032013.i93KDot26102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032007 SWODY1 SPC AC 032005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SSW AGS 10 E AGS 10 ESE CAE 30 WNW FLO 10 NE FLO 20 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL 10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 25 NW MGM 35 SSE AHN 45 S CLT 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SC AND A PORTION OF ERN GA... ...ERN SC/PORTION OF ERN GA... REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL GA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NC...AS FORCING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SC IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER ASCENT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FROM ERN SC INTO PARTS OF ERN GA. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT DEEP WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ...SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NM...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/COOL AIR MASS HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX INTO SERN NM... LIMITING DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER WEST HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SWRN TX NWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NM WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MID-50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RETURNED NEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ALONG A LEE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG/. FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AS CURRENT STORMS OVER NRN/NERN NM MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER SWWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX AND THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THE LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS UPPER FORCING IS WEAKER OVER THIS AREA. THUS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX ALLOWING FOR LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN TX WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING NWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AS A WAA REGIME INCREASES ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ. ..PETERS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 22:07:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 17:07:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410032208.i93M8ft02911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032206 SWODY1 SPC AC 032204 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 032200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SSW AGS 10 E AGS 10 ESE CAE 30 WNW FLO 10 NE FLO 20 NE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE 4CR 40 SSE LVS 40 NW TCC 20 NW DHT 45 SSE EHA 65 NNE AMA 15 NNE AMA 10 ENE CVS 50 WSW CVS 30 SSE 4CR 15 ENE 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL 10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 25 NW MGM 35 SSE AHN 45 S CLT 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SC AND A PORTION OF ERN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... AMENDED FOR AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE ...PARTS OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NM...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/COOL AIR MASS HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX INTO SERN NM... LIMITING DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER WEST HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SWRN TX NWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NM WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MID-50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RETURNED NEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ALONG A LEE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG/. FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN 40-55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER SOUTH...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN TX WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING NWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AS A WAA REGIME INCREASES ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ. ...20Z DISCUSSION FOR SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES... REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL GA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NC...AS FORCING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SC IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER ASCENT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FROM ERN SC INTO PARTS OF ERN GA. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT DEEP WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 00:28:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 19:28:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410040030.i940U4t19086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040028 SWODY1 SPC AC 040026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 25 SW ONM 20 ESE CDC 40 SSE NFL 25 SSE RBL 15 E EKA 10 SSW MFR 55 WNW OWY 25 NE BYI 15 ESE MQM 30 W COD 40 NE CYS 45 ESE LIC 45 NW GCK 15 WNW SLN 30 ENE HUT 40 WSW OKC 40 SSE DAL 45 NW LFK 20 W ESF 30 NNE CEW 35 NNW AYS 10 SE GSP 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NM/TX PNHDL... SCATTERED TSTMS /SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SE OF DHT TO NE OF 4CR. THESE STORMS INITIATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM AND WITHIN AIR MASS THAT HAD WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE EVIDENT ON 00Z AMA SOUNDING...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STORM MOVEMENT TOWARD PERSISTENT STATUS DECK FROM E-CNTRL NM EWD ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO ONGOING STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRIOR TO THIS...MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. ..MEAD.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 12:55:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 07:55:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410041256.i94Cumt16717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041254 SWODY1 SPC AC 041252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ELP 30 ESE TCS 30 SE ABQ 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 75 NW ABI 40 SSW ABI 50 S SJT 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PFN 30 S AYS 40 E CAE 55 NNE RWI WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 55 E SOW 55 WNW GUP 35 WSW PGA 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 40 NE LIC 25 SSE DDC 40 NE MKO 40 E PBF 30 W LUL 10 ESE GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AHEAD OF STRONG /1030 MB/ CANADIAN HIGH. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC / GULF COASTS. MEANWHILE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN PLAINS. WITH COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT CONVECTIVE THREAT TO PERSIST. ...PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX... SCATTERED / ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION ATTM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SLOW SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON -- IN ZONE OF FRONTAL LIFTING ACROSS WRN / CENTRAL TX AS WELL AS WITHIN BROAD ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO EVOLVE N OF FRONT. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE LOW-LEVEL ELY COMPONENT...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME LIKELY SUPPORTS CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 16:17:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 11:17:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410041618.i94GIht02091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041615 SWODY1 SPC AC 041614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE ELP 15 SSW ALM 30 W 4CR 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 75 NW ABI 30 SSE SJT 20 W HDO 25 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 S AYS 55 N SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 E SOW 20 NE INW 50 S SGU 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 30 S AKO 50 NW GCK 45 E DDC 35 W CNU 20 SSW JLN 50 E FSM 30 ENE PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. WITH LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEAK SRN BRANCH WITH ZONAL TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER. MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TX. MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WRN NY/NERN OH SWWD INTO SERN MO...THEN CONTINUED AS A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TX ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT IS MOVING SWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. ...S CENTRAL INTO SERN TX... MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM/W TX ESEWD POSSIBLY INTO SERN TX. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWD FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN TX WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. PRIND THAT CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SEWD/SWD INTO MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS ENHANCED BY SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS S TX WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE UVVS S OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN PLAINS OF SERN NM AND W TX... SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN SD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO IL BY 05/12Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS W TX AND SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INTO THE REGION. SOME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR OVER THIS REGION WITH SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KT DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AFTERNOON PROFILES WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO OCCUR NEAR THE SSE-NNW SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 20:08:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 15:08:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410042010.i94KAMt08727@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042004 SWODY1 SPC AC 042002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 10 W TCS 30 NNE ONM 45 N 4CR 65 NE 4CR 15 NNE INK 60 E FST 50 NW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 40 NNW BPT 10 ENE POE 45 NW LFT 15 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 E SOW 20 NE INW 45 NNE DRA 45 SW BIH 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 30 S AKO 50 NW GCK 45 E DDC 35 W CNU 20 SSW JLN 50 E FSM 30 ENE PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN TX AND SWRN LA... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS RESIDES IN WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...BOTH BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A LATER START TO HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NM AND W TX...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST. STRONGEST HEATING WILL EXIST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM AND FAR SW TX. BUILD-UPS ON THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE OVER SRN AZ. THIS WILL BE MOVING EWD AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING TSTMS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER EAST...THE SITUATION IS NOT AS CERTAIN OWING TO CLOUD COVER...MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE PRESENT. THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE S PLAINS OF W TX. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES...BUT THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWER THAN FARTHER WEST. OVERNIGHT...TSTM CLUSTERS...LARGELY ELEVATED...MAY EXPAND EWD AND SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...ERN TX AND SWRN LA... MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER SABINE RVR VLY AT MID-AFTERNOON WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD INTO CNTRL TX. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TSTM COMPLEX REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. INFLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED TO THE COAST. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL/N TX... TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE. MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EWD...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM DOWNSTREAM MCS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK. THUS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY...BUT ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE. ..RACY.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 00:46:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 19:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410050047.i950lWt09714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050045 SWODY1 SPC AC 050043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DMN 15 WNW TCS 35 N ONM 55 SSW LVS 40 ESE CVS 30 WSW LBB 30 SE INK 70 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 45 SE SOW 20 NE INW 45 NNE DRA 45 SW BIH 25 E SCK 35 E EKA 30 S MFR 90 WNW OWY 30 NNE TWF 30 N JAC 35 SE SHR 40 SSW RAP 25 NE AKO 25 SSW LAA 25 WNW GAG 30 N OKC 15 S MKO 25 NNW HOT PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND WRN TX... ...NM/WRN TX... TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND THE TX S PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /PER 00Z MAF SOUNDING/. IT APPEARS THAT CAP OBSERVED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER MAY BE SLOWING PARCEL ACCELERATIONS AND OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH OF ONGOING STORMS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS NM AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DESPITE COOLING AND DE-COUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER....PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 12:34:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 07:34:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410051235.i95CZUt09853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051233 SWODY1 SPC AC 051231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW DMN 40 E SAD 65 SW GNT 35 W ABQ 55 SSW LVS 20 WSW CVS 50 SSW LBB 70 WSW SJT 35 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW DUG 30 NNW SAD 55 WSW GUP 25 SE GCN 40 S SGU 35 WSW MLF 40 SSW DPG 35 SW MLD 35 NNE JAC 40 WSW WRL 35 N RWL 45 NE LAR 40 ENE SNY 35 N RSL 30 NW END 55 NNE ADM 40 WSW TXK 35 NNE ESF 40 SW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CEW 10 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM INTO PORTIONS OF W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONGER FLOW REMAINING INVOF THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER FROM SRN CA EWD TO W TX. AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS CENTRAL NM / THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN OK. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY SELY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BECOME LESS IMPORTANT WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVV FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF NM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX... LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS VORT MAX IS FOCUSED ACROSS NM ATTM...WHERE PERSISTENT / STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING. WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ AND A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TX...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NM AND INTO W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS VIGOROUS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT / WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED/. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NM SEWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. RESULTING THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 16:14:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 11:14:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410051615.i95GFxt32223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051611 SWODY1 SPC AC 051610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 NNE SVC 35 SSE GNT 30 E 4SL 40 NNE LVS 20 S CAO 10 WSW PVW 15 S BGS 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 30 NW SVC 55 E SOW 30 SW GCN 45 ESE U31 BAM 40 ENE OWY 40 SSW WEY 15 NNW COD 30 NNW GCC 15 NNE RAP 15 SSE MHN 50 N DDC 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 15 W CTY 25 WNW JAX 35 NW SAV 15 NNW AHN 25 SSW HSS 35 SE TRI 35 S GSO 20 NE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND W TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IS DRAGGING BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. AS NEXT STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW AND SWRN CANADA. ATTENTION WILL BE WITH ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL CO BY 06/12Z TAKING ONE SHORTWAVE EWD ACROSS NM INTO KS AND BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH SWWD ACROSS AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO S CENTRAL NM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO EXTREME W TX... MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER PARTS OF NM AS WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 60-80 KT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS SRN AZ. CURRENTLY...SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE LAYING OUT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WWD/NWWD INTO CENTRAL NM. MORNING MODEL DATA INDICATES 45-55 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND NEWD FROM SERN AZ INTO E CENTRAL NM COUPLING WITH SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KT THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH ETA AND ETAKF TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING TO 30-35 KT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/0-3 KM HELICITY TO 35-45 KT AND 300 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM INTO AT LEAST SERN CO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FEATURE EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SERN CO AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD INTO NERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN NM INTO EXTREME W TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THE SERN QUARTER OF CO TODAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WERE NEARLY A DOZEN REPORTS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MANAGED TO ENHANCE THE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION RESULTING IN ENHANCED ROTATION IN SOME OF THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. TODAY...HAVING THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING INTO CENTRAL CO...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS PROVIDING THERE IS SUFFICIENT HEATING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE MOVED LOW PROBABILITIES NWD FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT EXPECTED HEATING COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE HORIZONTAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ..MCCARTHY.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 19:53:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 14:53:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410051955.i95JtBt31609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051952 SWODY1 SPC AC 051950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 10 NW TCS 40 W ONM 30 SE GNT 25 E GNT 50 NNE SAF 40 NNE LVS 45 W AMA 15 E PVW 15 SSW MAF 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 55 ENE SAD 40 W GUP 55 WNW GCN 45 ESE U31 BAM 40 ENE OWY 40 SSW WEY 15 NNW COD 30 NNW GCC 15 NNE RAP 15 SSE MHN 50 N DDC 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 15 W CTY 25 WNW JAX 35 NW SAV 15 NNW AHN 25 SSW HSS 35 SE TRI 35 S GSO 20 NE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... 18Z ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN NM THROUGH THE KABQ AREA THEN SEWD TO NORTH OF KMAF. SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 50-60F HAVE BEEN ADVECTING NWWD FROM W TX INTO CNTRL NM TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 METERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NM INTO W TX TONIGHT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/SW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL NM...THEN MOVE NEWD ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE OVER NERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS SRN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OF 45-50 KTS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW WILL AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS EVIDENCED ALREADY IN THE KABQ VCNTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT WITH THE MORE SURFACE BASED CELLS OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL NM. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY AS CELLS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND APPROACH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM KABQ TO KROW. THE SELY H95-H85 JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SWRN TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TSTMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. ONE MCS...LARGELY ELEVATED...WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX PNHDL WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLD HAIL RISK. ANOTHER MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM CNTRL/SRN NM AND MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W/SWRN TX. HERE...ALONG WITH A HAIL RISK...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS SELY MOIST INFLOW AIDS IN FORWARD PROPAGATION. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ...DEEP S TX... TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A FRONT WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...MORNING/RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PARCELS IN THE H85-H5 LAYER ARE LESS MOIST THAN NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...PULSE SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. ..RACY.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 00:17:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 19:17:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410060018.i960IXt26700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060016 SWODY1 SPC AC 060014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE ELP 25 NW ALM 45 N ALM 55 ENE 4CR 10 W CVS 45 W PVW 10 W LBB 45 SSE LBB 55 SE MAF 20 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH 20 NNE SSI ...CONT... 55 ESE DUG 55 ENE SAD 40 NNW INW 35 ESE SGU 25 WSW MLF 35 W DPG 30 WSW MLD JAC 30 SSW WRL 50 NE CPR 45 NW CDR 20 E MHN 30 SSE RSL 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND SWRN TX... ...SERN NM/SWRN TX... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER ERN NM INTO SWRN TX AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NM AND SRN CO. THE STRONGEST STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ARE OCCURRING FROM VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW N OF ELP TO ALONG AND JUST N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SEWD TO N OF INK AND S OF MAF. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IS RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE MAF/INK AREAS WWD TO CNM/ROW WHERE 0-1 KM SRH HAS INCREASED TO 150-200 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ PRESENT ACROSS SWRN TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS TONIGHT ALONG DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION...PERMIAN BASIN AND TX S PLAINS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL MAY EXTEND FARTHER N IN ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 12:37:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 07:37:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410061238.i96Cckt10086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061235 SWODY1 SPC AC 061233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ELP 40 NNE ALM 45 NNE 4CR 20 NE LVS 10 E CAO 60 NE AMA 10 WNW CDS 50 WSW ABI 20 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE DUG 60 SSW GNT 15 SW GCN 30 E U24 30 SE EVW 40 ESE WRL 10 SSW BKX 25 NE FOD 30 ENE LWD 25 SSE P35 10 NW SZL 20 NW SGF 30 NNW FSM 35 ENE TXK 15 W JAN 25 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 35 WNW ORL 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM / W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES / WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH MODEST /25 TO 35 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET PERSISTING IN A CYCLONIC ARC FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...WITH BROAD AREA OF SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF LEE TROUGH / W OF ERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH. ...ERN NM / W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS... UPPER VORT MAX NOW ALONG AZ / UT BORDER -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH -- IS MOVING SEWD ATTM AND SHOULD CURVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. AS ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SELY WITH TIME ALLOWING A NWWD RETURN OF MODEST MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW / CONVERGENCE NEAR LEE TROUGH ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE ENEWD-MOVING MCSS. THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH OK / WRN N TX OVERNIGHT...DRIER / LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...PARTS OF ERN CO / WRN KS... WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FORCING / UVV ARE ANTICIPATED NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN CO / WRN KS. HOWEVER LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING INVOF LEE TROUGH BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW / VORT MAX SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 16:11:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 11:11:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410061612.i96GCYt30567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061608 SWODY1 SPC AC 061606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 35 E ALM 25 ENE 4CR 35 WSW TCC 35 NW PVW 55 ESE LBB 30 SW ABI 20 SSE JCT LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DMN 30 WSW TCS 30 SSE INW 40 NNW 4HV 40 NNW VEL 30 W CPR 60 WNW CDR 35 S 9V9 25 ENE SUX 30 SSE DSM 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 20 ESE JAN 40 SE MOB ...CONT... 35 N PIE 15 SSE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N 3DU 60 NNW 27U 55 E BKE 45 NW BNO 45 NE RDM 35 SSW EPH 65 NNW 3TH 65 N 3DU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN CO SWWD THROUGH SERN AZ. MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NWWD OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. LARGE SURFACE RIDGING SPREADS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD AND NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM ERN CO SWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...PARTS OF EXTREME W TX AND SERN NM... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY ACROSS SRN NM INTO W TX HAVE LEFT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX WWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO INTO W TX THEN TURNING NWD ALONG BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET MIRROR THE MID LEVEL JET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK JET STREAK OF 40-50 KTS AT 250 MB THAT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND S CENTRAL TX INDICATING DIVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED UVVS THIS AFTERNOON IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK. MCS THAT AFFECTED THIS REGION WORKED OVER THE AIR MASS PRETTY WELL AS MUCH OF THE MODEL INSTABILITY FOR TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX. SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 1500-2500 J/KG FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX NWD INTO W CENTRAL TX AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE REGION. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AND THE RIO GRANDE AREA AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 19:49:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 14:49:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410061950.i96Jolt24656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061947 SWODY1 SPC AC 061946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 45 E ALM 40 WNW ROW 30 SW CVS 15 WNW LBB 45 NNE BGS 40 SE BGS 70 SW SJT 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 15 SSE DAB ...CONT... 30 SE DMN 30 WSW TCS 30 SSE INW 40 NNW 4HV 40 NW VEL 30 WNW CPR 15 NNW 81V 35 NE RAP 35 SSE 9V9 25 ENE SUX 30 SSE DSM 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 20 ESE JAN 40 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N 3DU 60 NNW 27U 55 E BKE 45 NW BNO 45 NE RDM 35 SSW EPH 65 NNW 3TH 65 N 3DU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... LEAD IMPULSE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LAST NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...LEAVING MOST OF W TX AND ERN NM IN SUBSIDENCE. DOWNWARD MOTION...INCREASED CAP AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS STILL INDICATE THAT THE BODY OF THE TROUGH WAS HANGING BACK OVER WRN NM WITH A VERY WEAK IMPULSE OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THUS...THE LARGE SCALE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN SUPPORTING CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR SW TX. COMBINATION OF HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOIST SELY FLOW AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE UVV WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER YESTERDAY...VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS AUGMENTING VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...AS STORMS FORM...POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EXIST AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN NM AND FAR W TX. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH W TX OVERNIGHT. THE LLJ...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SUGGESTING A WEAKER WARM ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FARTHER FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THUS...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS EVENINGS...THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME AND AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 00:52:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 19:52:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410070053.i970rkt00811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070052 SWODY1 SPC AC 070050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DMN 45 N SVC 30 SSE INW 25 N 4HV 45 NNW VEL 15 SSE CPR 40 E 81V 40 NNE PHP 45 S PIR 30 S MHN 35 E MCK 25 WNW CNK 50 ESE OMA 40 NE P35 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 40 ENE HEZ 40 SE MOB ...CONT... 25 SE SRQ 15 SE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST TX... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AS STRONGEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE FROM SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL KS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ACROSS TX IS WEAK WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND NRN MEXICO. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SPREAD ATOP MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WEDGED IN ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...WWD TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM MAF SUPPORTS THIS WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP OBSERVED AROUND 780MB. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TX WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION EARLY...OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE APPEARS RATHER LOW THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 05:15:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 00:15:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410070517.i975H7t04152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070515 SWODY1 SPC AC 070513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 10 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ELP 25 S CAO OTG 25 SSE LSE PIA 35 NNE UNO 55 N LIT 25 SW GLH 30 ESE GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ELY COMPONENT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SHARPENING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS AXIS OF EXPECTED CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000J/KG WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT PARAMETERS APPEAR TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ...UPPER TX COAST/LA COAST... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN BUT SHOULD LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER TX COAST/LA COAST SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY STREAM INLAND MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR DO NOT FAVOR MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DARROW/BOTHWELL.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 12:44:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 07:44:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410071246.i97Ck2t02991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071244 SWODY1 SPC AC 071242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S SRQ 10 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 45 ESE LVS 40 SW MCK 10 NNE STC 35 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW APN AZO 40 W EVV 55 SW JBR 25 SSW GLH 30 E GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH A LARGE ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD AS FAR AS THE GREAT LAKES BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. LIMITED INSTABILITY / SHEAR OVER THE SRN PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT...BUT ELSEWHERE LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...FAR SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION... ORGANIZED BUT SUB-SEVERE ARC OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE SSEWD INTO WRN N TX WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD / NEWD ACROSS TX / OK THIS MORNING / AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX AS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMMENCES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...ONLY LIMITED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SERN NM INTO W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION -- BEHIND EWD-MOVING MCS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY MAINTAINED NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BENEATH 30 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS NEAR BASE OF MAIN TROUGH. ASSUMING MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AND STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL / WIND THREAT...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND MAY ALSO EVOLVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK / N TX. MINIMAL HEATING OF AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...SUPPORTING SOME INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE NOW W OF THE DFW METROPLEX. FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WITH STORMS REACHING SERN OK / NERN TX BY MID AFTERNOON. ...LA / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN EXTENT OF LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE / THE WRN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD ACROSS LA TODAY. THIS NWD ADVANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE IN QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY SHEARED / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF / ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 16:27:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 11:27:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410071628.i97GSit23588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071626 SWODY1 SPC AC 071624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 50 W ROW 60 WSW TCC 35 E MCK 20 W BKX 40 ESE INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE GRT BASIN AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE COMPOSED OF SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PER STLT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK FROM NE NM INTO NW OK BY EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER S...THE PATTERN IS LESS CLEAR...ALTHOUGH LONG LOOPS SHOW PRESENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHING THE TX BIG BEND. ...SE NM INTO SW/S CNTRL TX... UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SE NM/SW TX TODAY IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL ACROSS REGION /BETWEEN MINUS 10 AND MINUS 12 C AT 500 MB/...SO EXPECT MLCAPE TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS FROM SE NM INTO THE TRANS PECOS/GREAT BEND REGION OF S CNTRL AND SW TX. WITH 25-30 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MAIN TROUGH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL. WEAK FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD... HOWEVER...LIMIT OVERALL SEVERITY ...N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL/SE OK... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE RED RIVER VLY REGION OF TX/OK TODAY BETWEEN /1/ LEE TROUGH IN THE PANHANDLES AND /2/ INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E. AT UPPER LEVELS...INFLUENCE OF IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD PASS N AND W OF REGION. AS A RESULT...LOCAL AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND SRN OK LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DISSIPATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EDGING EWD FROM NW TX...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE DIURNAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SE TX/SRN LA... SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE TX LATER TODAY...ALONG NRN FRINGE OF DISTURBED WEATHER/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/WRN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY...AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORMS...SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX AND LA TODAY. MARGINAL DEGREE OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK /20 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 19:57:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 14:57:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410071958.i97Jwdt05076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071956 SWODY1 SPC AC 071954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 50 W ROW 60 WSW TCC 35 E MCK 20 W BKX 40 ESE INL ...CONT... 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN NM/SWRN-S TX... IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES...TSTM INITIATION WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY HEATING/ LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN NM/SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL EDGE EWD FROM CNTRL NM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE RELAXED THAN IN RECENT DAYS...SO DESPITE VEERING IN THE COLUMN...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN. ...TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK... AREA WOULD SEEMINGLY BE IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE OVER NRN OK...BUT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW CORE OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL ROTATING INTO THE KAMA AREA. VSBL PICTURES SHOW MDT CU DEVELOPING VCNTY KAMA AND SBCAPES HAVE RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND HEATING CONTINUES...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP. TIME SERIES OF THE KAMA VWP SHOWS THAT THE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKENING AS LEAD IMPULSE MOVES FARTHER AWAY. THUS...MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL PROBABLY BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE WITH ISOLD HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ...ARKLATEX NWD TO ERN OK... WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. STRONGER TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FAVORING AREAS FROM NERN OK/SERN KS SWD TO NCNTRL TX...ALONG THE TAIL END OF AN IMPULSE MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN OK ATTM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS EJECTED FROM EARLIER WRN OK TSTM COMPLEX MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL PLUME ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. HERE... POCKETS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUN HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. GLANCING EFFECTS OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MAY AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLD MINI-SUPERCELL ANYWHERE IN ERN OK SWD TO THE ARKLATEX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND BE LARGELY DIURNAL. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SRN LA... DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN ARCS AND PROPAGATING NWWD FROM THE WATER INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. STRONGEST TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY. 18Z RUC AGREES WITH 09Z ENSEMBLES...MAINTAINING WEAKER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR THAN THE 12Z ETA SUGGESTS. NONETHELESS... GIVEN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 00:22:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 19:22:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410080023.i980NZt28129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080021 SWODY1 SPC AC 080019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MIA 10 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 40 WSW ROW 35 ESE TCC 50 SSE DDC 10 SSW BIE 10 SW SUX 15 W MSP 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 25 NE COT 40 NW TPL 15 N BWD SJT 50 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING DEEPER CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST...NWD ACROSS AR INTO MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. 00Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DEEPER PLUME OF ASCENT REFLECT A VERY MOIST PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND...OR TORNADOES THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 05:18:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 00:18:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410080519.i985JUt03705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080517 SWODY1 SPC AC 080515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 10 N INK 70 S CDS 25 NE LTS 30 SSW PNC 55 NNE SZL 35 ENE DBQ 20 NNE MSN 20 NW IMT 60 NNE CMX ...CONT... 20 NW ROC 20 NE JHW 25 N YNG 30 WNW MFD 10 E HUF 25 W MVN 25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 20 N JAN 45 SE MEI 10 ENE CEW 20 ESE PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN GULF COAST... SRN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED FROM STRONGER WLY FLOW SUCH THAT A SLOW EVOLUTION TOWARD A CLOSED CIRCULATION MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...NWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACTING ON A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OR SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMIZED. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 70F...WILL HOLD FROM PORTIONS OF SRN LA INTO THE NRN GULF. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO AS WEAK SFC LOW APPROACHES THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW/BOTHWELL.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 12:34:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 07:34:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410081235.i98CZPt13348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081233 SWODY1 SPC AC 081231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 25 NNW INK 65 SSW CDS 10 SE CSM 20 NW PNC 35 SSW P35 DBQ 35 ESE VOK 15 N IMT 70 ENE CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW ...CONT... 20 NNW BLI 15 NNE OLM SLE 45 SE EUG 45 NE MFR 15 SE LMT 40 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 25 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE FLOW REGIME OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NRN STREAM...ONE MOVING ASHORE OVER BC...THE OTHER DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WILL SPREAD STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. SRN SEGMENT OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE WRN STATES WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE CNTRL U.S. TROUGHS...AN EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BELT OF CONFLUENT SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. ...LA GULF COAST... STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING GULF LOW. THIS WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NCNTRL GULF COAST REGION...FROM THE SABINE RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. ETA IS INDICATING THAT BAND OF ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM SERN LA INTO SRN AR THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THIS AXIS...AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT AND INTENSIFY WITH TIME RESULTING IN INCREASING 0-1KM SRH ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST AIRMASS COUPLED STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN LA. ...WEST TX... RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE TRANPECOS/BIG BEND REGIONS BENEATH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AIDED BY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 16:32:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 11:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410081633.i98GXct03964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081630 SWODY1 SPC AC 081628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 25 NNW INK 65 SSW CDS 10 SE CSM 20 NW PNC 35 SSW P35 15 N CID 35 SSE LSE 15 SSW EAU 35 N MSP 30 ENE BRD 15 E INL ...CONT... 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 50 ESE SLE 50 NNE MFR 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES E INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE CNTRL STATES TROUGH IS COMPOSED OF NUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW FEATURES IN NW MN AND NW KS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AS THEY HEAD GENERALLY SEWD. FARTHER S...MORE DIFFUSE IMPULSE NOW NEARING THE TX BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE E IN SRN TX LATER TODAY. IN THE GULF...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL PERSIST S OF LA. WHILE THE ETA SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ASHORE NEAR LFT BY 12Z SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE PRESSURE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MAIN LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...TX BIG BEND... A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SW TX AND THE TX BIG BEND...WHERE AN AXIS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...WELL AHEAD OF COOL SURGE DROPPING S ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE STATE. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE LOW 60S AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C...HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...SRN LA/SE TX... WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM OFFSHORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN/ EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE NWRN GULF CST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH TIME...TRUE MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SRN LA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ...UPR MS VLY... STRONG UVV AHEAD OF IMPULSE NOW IN NW MN MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS OVER PARTS OF WI/UPR MI AND PERHAPS NE MN LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 19:45:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 14:45:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410081946.i98JkRt04634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081944 SWODY1 SPC AC 081942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW ...CONT... 50 SE ELP 30 NE CNM 40 S LBB 60 SSW CDS 20 NE ADM 45 WNW FYV 15 SSE UIN 35 ENE DBQ 15 SW VOK EAU 35 N MSP 30 ENE BRD 15 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 50 ESE SLE 50 NNE MFR 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN TX... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING ACROSS SWRN TX/EXTREME SERN NM. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THREE MAIN ZONES OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT. ONE IS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG/W OF THE ANTELOPE RIDGE IN LEA COUNTY NM. THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE KERMIT/WINK AND PECOS REGIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER SWRN TX TERRAIN AND...IN PARTICULAR...THE PEAKS SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 90 WHERE MLCAPE HAS RISEN TO 1500-2000 J/KG. A THIRD ZONE OF INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS RATHER WEAK /LESS THAN 20 KTS/ AND...CONSEQUENTLY...MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE ANTICIPATED. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN LA... INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NWD ONTO THE UPPER TX COAST FROM TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN. EAST OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE NEWD INTO MAINLY SRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED TSTMS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IN SRN LA...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 00:35:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 19:35:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410090036.i990aLt20436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090033 SWODY1 SPC AC 090032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS GGG 25 WSW MKO 40 E BVO 40 W TBN 40 ESE VIH 30 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MTC 10 NW MKG 15 S GRB 30 NW ESC 85 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 30 NNE INK 40 SE LBB 30 NW CDS 25 S GAG 45 NE CSM 45 SW ADM 15 ESE FTW 10 WSW ACT 50 NNW SAT 55 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN LA... EARLY THIS EVENING...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ACROSS SRN LA TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...PER 00Z LIX SOUNDING. THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...NWD INTO SERN AR. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE SATURATED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THE PROSPECT FOR LIGHTNING MAY BE LIMITED. EVEN SO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...SWRN TX... ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND WITH TIME DISSIPATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD GENERALLY SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE WEAKENING. ...GREAT LAKES... STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE U.P. OF MI...SWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MI. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE NORTH OF CYCLONIC JET SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN LOWER MI AND ERN U.P. OF MI THIS EVENING. DESPITE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 07:08:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 02:08:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410090709.i9979It04950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090703 SWODY1 SPC AC 090701 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 25 E PDX 20 SSE SLE 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BIH 60 SE TVL 10 NW RNO 40 W OWY 40 SSE TWF 45 WSW MLD 50 SW ENV 60 N BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BPT 45 ESE LFK 10 W LFK 20 NNW TPL 50 NE JCT 35 S JCT 35 W ALI 35 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF 50 NNE SAF 20 WSW EHA 35 SW ICT 25 NW JLN 35 SE HRO 50 NE LIT 25 SW HSV 25 SE RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE LA/MS COAST AS CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES INTO THIS REGION. HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CIRCULATION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WRN U.S... APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL DIG SEWD INTO CA ALLOWING TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS OVER NV MAY AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS POST FRONTAL MARINE AIRMASS. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 12:29:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 07:29:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410091230.i99CUrt14318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091228 SWODY1 SPC AC 091227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MLB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 10 S BPT 45 ESE LFK 10 W LFK 20 NNW TPL 50 NE JCT 35 S JCT 35 W ALI 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF 35 WSW RTN 20 WSW EHA 45 ESE P28 30 NE MKO 50 NNE LIT 10 SSE DYR 45 NE MSL 20 NNW RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W OGD 25 SE ELY 35 W BIH 30 SSW TVL 20 W RNO 25 SSW WMC 30 SW OWY 40 ESE BOI 65 WSW 27U 45 N 27U 20 NNE BTM 35 NW 3HT 35 W BIL 25 NW MLD 45 W OGD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 10 NW OLM 30 W PDX 25 S EUG OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48 STATES TODAY WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM SPREADING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS A NUMBER OF DISPARATE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS TX/OK. A WEAK T.S. MATTHEW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NCNTRL GULF COAST WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM BECOMING WRAPPED INTO THE EVOLVING LARGER SCALE LOW ACROSS TX. DESPITE THE NUMBER OF SOURCES FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CONUS...TSTM COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY EITHER LACK OF MOISTURE OR WEAK LAPSE RATES. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST NWWD/INLAND TO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS. ...LA/MS/AL GULF COAST... CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF T.S. MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGIONS OF LA/MS/AL THIS PERIOD. LATEST ETA BRINGS MATTHEW INLAND TO THE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS BY LATE THIS EVENING WHILE GFS...SREF...AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FCSTS SHOW A SLOWER NNEWD MOVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST WILL ALSO BE AREAS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND COULD PROMOTE ISOLD STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVOR KEEPING LOW PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER A BRIEF TORNADO OR A COUPLE OF TSTM INDUCED WIND GUSTS. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... LIMITED MOISTURE BUT STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AND LOW STATIC STABILITY...ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND PACIFIC FRONT MAY PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TX/OK/AR... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AND LIFTED INTO LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE PULSE/MULTICELL IN NATURE. WHILE A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 16:17:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 11:17:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410091618.i99GIDt24929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091608 SWODY1 SPC AC 091607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF 35 WSW RTN 35 ENE RTN 30 E DDC 15 SW HUT 20 S CNU 20 W FYV 50 N LIT 15 NW MKL 45 NE MSL 20 NNW RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV ...CONT... 15 SSE MLB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 35 SE LFK 65 NNE CLL 20 NNW TPL 55 NW AUS 25 NNW SAT 35 W ALI 30 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 10 NW OLM 30 W PDX 25 S EUG OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLF 50 W P38 45 E FAT 35 E SCK 30 W RNO 35 NE LOL 30 SW OWY 40 ESE BOI 65 WSW 27U 50 N 27U 35 NW 3HT 35 N BIL 10 NNE RIW 35 NW VEL 35 W MLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...W TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW INVOF LBB-AMA-TCC AS OF MID MORNING. THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SSWWD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER...BEFORE GRADUALLY LOOPING SEWD THEN EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS W TX...12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14 TO -15 C...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SE LA COAST /SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/. SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO AREAS NE-SE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THAT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS LARGELY OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NNEWD THERE WILL BE A GRADUALLY INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE SE LA AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 01:36:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 20:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410100137.i9A1bnt30916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100048 SWODY1 SPC AC 100046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 35 SE LFK 65 NNE CLL 20 NNW TPL 55 NW AUS 25 NNW SAT 35 W ALI 30 WNW MFE ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 NE ELP 35 WSW 4CR 55 NNE SAF 30 W TAD 40 NW EHA 40 SSE DDC 10 NNE PNC 35 W FYV 20 S JBR 20 NE MSL 10 SE RMG AGS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 SE DAB 25 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLF 60 W P38 20 SSE BIH 40 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 15 W TVL 10 E RNO 15 SE WMC 60 WNW TWF 35 WNW 27U 25 SE 3DU 35 NE HLN 25 ENE 3HT 35 S BIL 10 NNE RIW 35 NW VEL 35 W MLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN LA EWD TO SWRN AL... LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF TS MATTHEW BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INLAND ALONG THE LA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY JUST AFTER 06Z. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PER LIX VAD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS MATTHEW MOVES CLOSER TO LAND. LOW LCLS AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL FAVOR A GREATER THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST...WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN LA TO SWRN AL. ...WRN TX... COLD UPPER LOW /-16C AT 500 MB PER AMA 00Z SOUNDING/ LOCATED JUST S OF LBB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN TX OVERNIGHT. 30-35 KT NLY MID-LEVEL JET OVER ERN NM IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND INTO THE BASE OF THIS LOW BY 12Z SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES WLY. DESPITE THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 05:43:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 00:43:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410100544.i9A5int05422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100542 SWODY1 SPC AC 100541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 30 SSE LFK 50 SSW TYR SEP 50 N ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 55 SSE EHA 10 SSW LBL 35 E P28 35 WNW UNO 40 NW DYR HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS ...CONT... 10 E DAB 60 NE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD 55 ESE PRC 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 WSW COS 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY AS STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CANADA. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN STATES TO BECOME CUT OFF AS IT TRACKS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SWRN STATES. MEANWHILE...CUT OFF LOW LOCATED OVER OK/TX/ERN NM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... T.S. MATTHEW IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE LA COAST /ERN TERREBONNE PARISH/ AT OR JUST AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NWD TO WEST CENTRAL MS BY 12Z MONDAY. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF MATTHEW AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF MATTHEW WILL...HOWEVER...FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED... THEN STRONGER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL AND POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 12:31:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 07:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410101232.i9ACWBt03408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101229 SWODY1 SPC AC 101228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 15 SW BTR 20 SSE MCB 30 NNE GPT 40 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 40 E LFK 50 SSW TYR 45 SE BWD 30 WSW ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 45 NE AMA 20 N GAG 10 SSE TUL 60 SSW UNO 35 W DYR HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS ...CONT... 10 E DAB 60 NE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD 55 ESE PRC 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 W ELY 35 SSW EVW 20 SE CAG 45 E GUC 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LA AND MS/AL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS...A WEAK AND COMPACT T.S. MATTHEW MOVING INTO SERN LA...AND A STRONG TROUGH PASSING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LA TODAY...AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ...LA/MS GULF COAST... DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SERN LA AND SWRN MS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF T.S. MATTHEW. SOME OF THIS INCREASE APPEARS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN TX/WRN LA. DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN LA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...A SMALL AREA OF STRONGER 0-3KM SRH COINCIDENT WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF MATTHEW CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN AREA. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SERN LA AND THE IMMEDIATE MS GULF COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MATTHEW MOVES INLAND. ...AZ/NM... STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN AZ AND WRN NM WILL DRIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...ISOLD SMALL HAIL OR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 16:33:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 11:33:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410101634.i9AGYat07741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101631 SWODY1 SPC AC 101630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 40 E LFK 50 SSW TYR 35 NE JCT 40 NW SJT 15 E LBB 30 SSE AMA 45 NE AMA 20 SSE GAG 50 WSW TUL 15 W MKO 10 SW FSM 25 NNE HOT 40 N GLH 35 ESE GWO 20 SSW 0A8 15 SE AUO 25 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 25 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 50 SE PHX 45 SSE PRC 35 SE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 W ELY 35 SSW EVW 20 SE CAG 40 SE ASE 15 S RTN 20 SE CNM 45 SW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY NWD TODAY ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS...TO THE E OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX. THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TODAY ACROSS SRN MS/AL...AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED OVER THE LA DELTA. HOWEVER...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PRONOUNCED COOL/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE THICK CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TEND TO COUNTER DESTABILIZATION INLAND FROM THE COAST. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT E OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT WEAK INLAND INSTABILITY IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH E TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW NEWD MOTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX. GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING FROM SE NV EWD ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ /THROUGH ASCENT NE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW/ SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM N TX AND SRN OK EWD TO NRN LA/AR IN ADVANCE OF THE TX MID LEVEL LOW...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 19:24:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 14:24:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410101925.i9AJP8t26131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101921 SWODY1 SPC AC 101919 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 40 N BPT 55 E ACT 20 SW ACT 55 S BWD 35 NNE JCT 25 NNW SJT 30 ESE LBB 40 ESE AMA 30 SW GAG 30 W END 30 WNW FSM 35 ENE GWO 35 WNW AUO 15 WNW MCN 15 E CHS ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 25 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 50 NNW TUS PRC 50 N IGM 40 E DRA 70 W P38 55 SSW ELY 50 NNW MLF 25 SE DPG 15 SSW SLC 35 SSW EVW 35 WNW VEL 30 WSW EGE ALS 25 SSW LVS 50 NNW GDP 35 SSE GDP 40 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER SE LA...SRN MS AND SW AL. THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STRONG STORMS. IN THIS AREA...BACKED SFC FLOW IS CREATING STRONG VEERING BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED INLAND AND MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDS EWD FROM A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAKE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS. ..BROYLES.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 01:04:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 20:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410110106.i9B16At28499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110103 SWODY1 SPC AC 110101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 25 SSW ESF 55 SW TYR 15 NNW ABI 55 SSW CDS 55 N CDS 35 SE GAG 45 W TUL 45 ENE FSM 40 WSW UOX 15 NE 0A8 30 ESE CSG 15 SSE SAV ...CONT... DAB 50 W ORL 20 WNW FMY 55 E EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 35 S PRC 40 SE IGM 45 SW LAS 35 SW DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 NW P38 DPG 30 SE MLD 40 S BPI 20 E RKS 35 NNW COS 25 ENE RTN 35 WSW TCC 50 ESE GDP 40 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PNHDL... THE REMNANTS OF T.S. MATTHEW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SWRN MS...IN THE VICINITY OF HEZ...AT 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NWD TOWARD SERN AR BY 12Z MONDAY. 40 KT SELY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN AL INTO AR...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM LA TO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY AT SLIDELL LA VAD. LOW-LEVEL WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING FROM OK TO GA/NRN FL TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED LOW OVER TX/OK AND MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...MAINLY WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM ERN LA TO FAR SWRN AL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DECREASE... PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. ...SRN AZ... 00Z SOUNDINGS AT FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN NV SEWD INTO SRN NM...AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN TX. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED V PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 05:52:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 00:52:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410110553.i9B5rbt17469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110552 SWODY1 SPC AC 110550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 30 W SAD 20 N PHX 10 ESE EED 35 S LAS 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U24 45 SSE SLC 35 S VEL 25 NNE GUC RTN 15 W CVS 25 WNW INK 30 NW MRF 50 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 35 N BTR 45 SSW ELD 20 WSW TXK PGO 25 SSE HRO 30 NNW ARG 35 SSW PAH 15 NE CHA 15 SE AHN 45 SW CHS ...CONT... 20 N VRB 60 WSW MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THREE CLOSED LOWS WILL BE THE PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TODAY FROM THE SWRN STATES TO OK/TX...AND NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOSED LOWS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX TO THE GULF COAST/SRN ATLANTIC STATES. ...ERN AZ/NM/FAR SWRN TX... LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO AZ WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO THE EAST OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ...WILL SPREAD EWD AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO FAR SWRN TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZ SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS ALSO INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. RESULTANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SWRN TX. ...OK/KS SEWD TO GULF COAST STATES... REMNANTS OF T.S MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN TURN NWWD INTO MO ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CLOSED UPPER LOW AS THE LATTER MOVES SLOWLY NEWD. BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SRN STREAM JET COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE ARC OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES AND THEN SEWD ACROSS FL. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK UPPER FORCING/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 12:34:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 07:34:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410111235.i9BCZHt15482@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111233 SWODY1 SPC AC 111232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT 25 SW JAN 30 NW MLU 20 WSW TXK 10 NNW PGO 15 NNW HRO 30 SSE TBN 60 SW BLV 30 E MDH 20 WNW BWG 25 W CSV 20 ESE CHA 45 W AGS 45 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 30 W SAD 50 ENE PHX 25 SE PRC 40 WNW PRC 15 NE EED 55 E DAG 20 WSW DAG 25 NNE EDW 70 W DRA 60 WNW P38 50 SSE ELY 30 W U24 25 WNW PUC 45 S VEL 25 NNE GUC 10 WSW TAD 10 SE TCC 40 NE HOB 30 ENE FST 20 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CIRCUITOUS AND BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SEPARATING AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW AND A SUBTROPICAL STORM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. LATEST ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW ENEWD PROGRESS THROUGH TODAY AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL BY EARLY TUESDAY. BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS IN MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM FL AND THE DEEP SOUTH NWWD TO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH. LEADING IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE ACROSS NV WILL DROP SWWD AND RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SRN CA BY THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. ...NM/WEST TX... CONTINUED MOISTENING AND LIFT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 50S F/...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WEST TX AND SRN NM...SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY WHILE DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRODUCED BY MODEST WLYS ATOP ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FURTHER PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 16:24:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 11:24:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410111625.i9BGPwt24687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111623 SWODY1 SPC AC 111622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS 40 N MOB 40 ENE PBF 40 E FSM 25 NW FYV 60 NNW SGF 20 WSW JEF 10 SW STL 25 E MVN 30 ESE OWB 45 ENE BNA 10 N RMG 20 SE MCN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 WSW SAD 25 ENE PHX 40 S PRC 40 SSE IGM 10 WSW EED 55 E DAG 20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 60 ESE TPH 45 SE ELY 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD 20 WSW BPI 40 NW RKS 40 E VEL 25 SE ASE 40 SW PUB 30 W DHT 25 E LBB 15 S BGS 45 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE TWO SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE OVER SRN AZ AND ANOTHER OVER ERN OK/AR. THE OK/AR TROUGH WILL DRIFT NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AR. A FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES FROM THE S/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT STEEPER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP LAYER DRYING AND A PRONOUNCED CAP NEAR 700 MB WILL INHIBIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS THE FAR W TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ WILL EJECT EWD TODAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR W TX AND SRN NM. THE 12Z EPZ SOUNDING SUPPORTS SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S /WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ARE PREVALENT/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 45-50 F. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 19:02:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 14:02:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410111903.i9BJ3Wt02164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111901 SWODY1 SPC AC 111859 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM 20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB 45 ENE TAD PVW BGS 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS MEI 50 SW JBR HRO UMN 60 NNW SGF JEF STL 30 N EVV 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...DOMINATED BY CYCLONES OVER SWRN CONUS AND OVER OK. LATTER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN OZARKS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...SHIFTING CLOSER TO SFC CENTER NOW ANALYZED OVER NRN AR. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD THEN SSWWD FROM AR LOW...ACROSS WRN MS AND S-CENTRAL LA. DOUBLE WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS ANALYZED WITH MARINE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MS TO AL COAST...AND SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT NEARLY BISECTING TN FROM W-E. LATTER FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY WHILE MARINE FRONT DRIFTS NEWD AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN EPISODIC CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...OUT W...UPPER LOW HAS BINARY STRUCTURE WITH CENTERS OVER ERN AZ AND OVER SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. AZ CENTER WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVING EWD INTO NM AS LOW-AMPLITUDE/OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION. NV/CA CENTER IS FCST TO RETROGRADE SWWD ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH 12/12Z. ...SRN NM...FAR W TX... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE -- GENERALLY AOB 20 KT THROUGH MOST OF 0-6 KM AGL LAYER BASED ON VWP FROM HDX/EPZ. HOWEVER...NEARLY 180 DEG DIRECTIONAL TURNING LEADS TO STRETCHED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED RUC2 FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS 40S TO LOW 50S F AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AWAY FROM AREAS STABILIZED BY ONGOING/PRIOR CONVECTION. TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL COOLING RELATED BOTH TO OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC HEAT LOSS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 00:52:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 19:52:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410120053.i9C0rBt20485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120051 SWODY1 SPC AC 120049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PFN 30 SSW TCL 15 ENE UOX 25 WNW ARG 10 N SGF 10 NE SZL 35 SSE IRK 25 SW SPI 45 SW BMG 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM 20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB 45 ENE TAD 45 ENE CVS 15 WNW MAF 95 SSE MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM/FAR WEST TX... BINARY STRUCTURE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AS THE WRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES WWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN CA. THE ERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NM PER WV IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED OVER NM/FAR SWRN TX. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SEWD TO FAR SWRN TX...AND GREATLY DIMINISH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO OR 30-40 SW ELP AT 00Z PER ELP RADAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER AS IT TRACKS ESE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF THIS STORM REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AFFECTING FAR SRN HUDSPETH COUNTY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE U.S. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ONE SUPERCELL...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. ..PETERS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 05:54:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 00:54:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410120555.i9C5tgt28253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120553 SWODY1 SPC AC 120551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20 NNW CNM 25 NNE INK 60 WSW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 50 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PFN 20 WNW TOI CBM 50 SW MEM ARG 35 NNW POF 20 NW MDH 30 N EVV 50 NE LEX 25 NW 5I3 TRI 25 NNE SPA 10 SE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS TO SERN STATES... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS...WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN SEWD MOVEMENT OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD TODAY AS IT CARVES A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...AND EJECTS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...NEAR JLN ATTM...SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. 50 KT WLY SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AND STRENGTHEN WITH 40-50 KT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO SC. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY LOCATED NEAR MEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD SRN IND. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/TN AND AL TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN IND TO GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ENEWD ACROSS KY/TN TODAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM AL INTO GA/NRN FL. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES GIVEN A MID-LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 750-550 MB PER GFS FORECAST AND OBSERVED 00Z LCH/SLIDELL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT. DRY MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 12:38:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 07:38:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410121239.i9CCdVt06289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121237 SWODY1 SPC AC 121236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20 NNW CNM 25 NNE INK 60 WSW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 50 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E AQQ 20 N DHN 10 SE CBM 25 SSE MEM 30 ENE JBR 25 NE VIH 30 SSE UIN 20 S BMI 10 S CMH 25 ESE PKB 30 NNW SSU 10 S BKW 20 WSW PSK 40 S ROA 20 WNW RDU 30 ENE FAY 30 SW ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SERN STATES... IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL CANADA...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO WILL TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...NOW ANALYZED OVER WRN TN...WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL PRECEDE THIS COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS AL/GA TODAY WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN FEED OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR OFF THE ERN GULF/WRN ATLANTIC NWWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG AND E OF SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CO-EXIST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SEWD ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF AL/GA. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL INVERSION OBSERVED BY 12Z GULF COAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS AND RESULTANT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ...SWRN TX... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL BAJA CA WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. IF LOW CLOUDS CAN BREAK ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 16:16:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 11:16:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410121617.i9CGHut10620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121613 SWODY1 SPC AC 121611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20 NNW CNM 35 WNW MAF 25 SW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 20 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 25 W MGR 0A8 25 SSE MEM 25 NE VIH 35 S IRK 15 S MLI 15 NW MMO 45 N LAF 30 WNW DAY 25 ESE PKB 30 NW RWI 25 ENE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW MO WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE A SEPARATE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE SWWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SE MO...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ARCS SEWD ACROSS WRN TN AND SWD ACROSS AL. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TN/AL/GA...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AOB 6 C/KM OVER THE SAME AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 75-80 F SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS NE AL/N GA AND MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKER AND ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER IN ADVANCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX EJECTING EWD FROM SE AR/NW MS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS...THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 20:09:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 15:09:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410122010.i9CKAKt23300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 50 ENE ELP 30 SSE CNM 20 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN TUP CGI 25 NE VIH UIN MLI MMO 45 N LAF PKB RWI ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 35 SSE COT 30 S ALI 30 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLVING SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM ACROSS CONUS...TOWARD MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH...NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD FROM PACIFIC NW...AND RETROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE OFFSHORE SRN CA. MID/UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MO -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. THIS EJECTION PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER NRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES -- DIGS SEWD. AT SFC...COLD FRONT OVER NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. BROAD/DIFFUSE CYCLONE OVER SERN MO AND TN VALLEY REGION SHOULD DRIFT NWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY...BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MEANWHILE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER AL WILL DRIFT EWD TOWARD WRN GA. ...SERN CONUS... VIS IMAGE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AMIDST WEAKENING CINH...FROM MID TN SEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO WRN GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING SLOWLY BOOSTS DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS. EXPECT MLCAPES TO RISE INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS SFC HEATING AND 60S/LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RELATIVE DRYING BEHIND CONFLUENCE LINE -- ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS MS/AL -- WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STMS THERE RELATIVE TO FARTHER N/NE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...KEEPING HODOGRAPHS SMALL EVEN WHERE FLOW IS RELATIVELY BACKED E OF SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FASTER THAN CONFLUENCE LINE...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR TO 40-50 KT ACROSS MORE OF MOIST SECTOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL/BOW MORPHOLOGIES WITH A FEW STORMS...LOCALLY ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 00:48:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 19:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410130049.i9D0nMt08196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130046 SWODY1 SPC AC 130044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 50 ENE ELP 30 SSE CNM 20 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 35 SSE COT 30 S ALI 30 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH CSG 10 NW LGC 25 NNE TCL 30 S BLV 10 SSW PIA 45 NNW LAF FWA 40 SSE FDY PKB RWI 25 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TAD 30 N LVS 15 WSW LVS 25 SSW 4SL 45 NNW 4SL 10 SSE CEZ 35 NNE CEZ 25 W GUC 10 SSW ASE 25 S 4FC 40 W TAD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY TO SERN CONUS... CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN MO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WILL BOTH TRACK SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/ERN TN AND GA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN IND COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IN THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THESE SURFACE TROUGHS AND CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER GULF COAST/SERN STATES 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN ROCKIES TO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND DEEP SOUTH TX... POCKETS OF WAA AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 06:04:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 01:04:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410130605.i9D65Yt13495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130603 SWODY1 SPC AC 130601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CHS 10 WNW CAE 10 NNE SPA 15 NW HKY 25 W DAN 35 SW RIC 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SAV 35 SSW AHN 35 SSE CSV 35 NE SDF 10 NNW DAY 15 NE FKL 25 NE IPT 25 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 35 WNW SAD 15 NNW SOW 30 NNW GUP 25 SE 4SL 40 SSE 4CR 20 E HOB 30 ESE ACT 15 SSE POE 35 W BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY AS A STRONG...COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS SSEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO MS VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SRN STREAM OVER SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES. CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TRACKING NE TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS OH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL IN TURN INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS AREA. IN THE CENTRAL STATES...A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SSEWD REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO DEEP S TX BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA... SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NC WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT TO THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...AND THEN NEWD AS THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT. WARM MID-LEVEL AIR /IN 700-500 MB LAYER PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ AND SOME CLOUDINESS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AS LOW-LEVEL SSWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. 50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF VA/NC WITH THIS ACTIVITY RE-INTENSIFYING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND/OR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE CAROLINAS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT GREATER INSTABILITY. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE A HAIL THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. SOME BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL. SWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THIS EVENING...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN NC AFTER DARK. ...S TX... HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE A TORNADO THREAT...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WIND AND HAIL ARE FORECAST. A GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE MOIST/ UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM DRT-HOU AND SWD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE POST-FRONTAL WITH ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SWRN TX INTO SRN NM WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT A SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR WEST. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 12:54:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 07:54:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410131255.i9DCt9t21678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131253 SWODY1 SPC AC 131251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CHS 50 NW FLO 20 SW GSO 20 NE DAN 20 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 40 NNW AGS 20 E CSV 35 NE SDF 40 SE DAY 20 NNW PIT 10 NW CXY 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 WSW SAD 25 NW SOW 35 W FMN 45 WSW RTN 65 ENE 4CR 55 NW ABI 30 ESE ACT 40 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...VA SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SRN IND WITH A SECONDARY...WEAKER LOW OVER WRN NC. WARM FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SECONDARY LOW EXTENDED ESEWD ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO S-CNTRL GA. CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION WITH OF FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH APPROACH OF TN VALLEY TROUGH. WARM SECTOR /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER 12Z CHS SOUNDING/ CURRENTLY IS CONFINED TO NERN GA AND ERN SC. AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF TN VALLEY SYSTEM...EXPECT AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE NWD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN INTO SERN VA. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT SWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR AND ALONG COLD FRONT. INCREASINGLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR /OWING TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT/ WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ...TX... COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS WILL DIVE SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...SWRN TX AND CONCHO VALLEY. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG WLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...FAST SWD FRONTAL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL EITHER BECOME ELEVATED ATOP POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OR ASSUME MORE OF A LINEAR CONFIGURATION ALONG SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL PRODUCTION...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION ESEWD THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING...THUS WARRANTING ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING WILL EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INHERENT SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 16:38:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 11:38:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410131639.i9DGd4t26623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131636 SWODY1 SPC AC 131635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 45 SE CLT 25 SW GSO 20 E DAN 15 NNE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DUG 45 WSW SAD 25 NW SOW 10 SSW CEZ 45 S MTJ 45 SW PUB 20 NNE RTN 50 WNW CVS 55 NW ABI 45 NNE CLL 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CHS 10 N TYS 30 SW LUK 15 E MFD 20 SSW DUJ 30 NE CXY 20 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS.... ...ERN CAROLINAS AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER KY/TN IS MOVING ENEWD AND GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE...WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX INVOF N GA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN GA/UPSTATE SC...WHILE A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE WAA REGIME NE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SC AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG...EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NC...WHERE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO/ WILL BE GREATER. FARTHER W/SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CELLULAR OR POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ...TX AREA... A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND...WHILE A DEEP NRN STREAM TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD TX BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING SWD ACROSS NW TX AND OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH W CENTRAL AND SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND S CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 65-70 F REMAIN OVER S CENTRAL AND DEEP S TX AS OF MID MORNING...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION FROM S TX INTO W TX. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER S CENTRAL/SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX AND SPREAD SEWD TO S CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT INVOF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS W/SW TX...REACHING S CENTRAL TX LATE. A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ACROSS S TX. STILL...SOME PART OF W TX TO S CENTRAL COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT 20Z. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 20:16:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 15:16:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410132017.i9DKHit31821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132010 SWODY1 SPC AC 132008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRP ALI 60 WNW COT DRT 60 SE MAF 45 E BGS BWD TPL 35 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DUG 45 WSW SAD INW 10 SSW CEZ MTJ GUC LVS 40 E DHT MWL LFK 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 5I3 20 N CMH CLE BUF IPT ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SW AND S-CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EVOLVING TOWARD DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH AND MAINTAINING LONGWAVE RIDGE OFF W COAST. INITIAL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OH VALLEY - IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...WEAK SFC LOW HAS FORMED AT OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT -- OVER WRN NC -- AND SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS VA BORDER TOWARD SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AREA BEFORE SFC LOW ARRIVES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CAROLINAS -- CHARACTERIZED MORE BY VEERED SFC FLOW AND DRY ADVECTION THAN BY SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER NRN FL AND NERN CENTRAL GULF...AND APPEARS TO BE RETREATING NEWD AS SUBTLE WARM FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST. FARTHER W...MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS IT DIGS SSEWD TOWARD ERN KS...MO AND ERN OK. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SRN MO SWWD TO SERN NM -- WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT SWEEPS SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. ...SW/S TX... SEVERAL MODES OF MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WHICH -- IN AGGREGATE -- WILL BUILD SEVERE PROBABILITIES ENOUGH TO COMPEL CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. FIRST...ONGOING CONVECTION IN RELATIVELY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS MID TX COAST IS IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE -- NEAR EDGE OF MODIFYING MARINE AIR. AS CAP WEAKENS WITH CONTINUED HEATING FARTHER W...AND BUOYANCY INCREASES...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BUILD WWD THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL MORPHOLOGIES. STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALSO MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALLY. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. SECOND...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS OVER SRN HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...AS HEATING/MIXING CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND CAP WEAKENS. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AT AROUND 7 DEG C/KM...EXPECT PREFRONTAL THETAE INCREASE TO RESULT IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ALSO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA...ENHANCING STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPECT EFFECTIVE ANAFRONTAL SITUATION WHERE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY UNDERCUT...BECOMING ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL AS MAIN THREAT. FINALLY...MODELS REASONABLY PERSIST IN FORECASTING CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST REGION -- DEVELOPING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS PERSISTING BEHIND IT. THIS MAY EITHER BE CONTINUATION/EXTENSION OF AFTERNOON TSTMS OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH APCH OF FRONT. IN EITHER EVENT MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEARS SHOULD COUNTERACT DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL IN THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION AS WELL. LARGE NUMBER OF TSTMS MAY RESULT IN CLUSTER OF SEVERE EVENTS EVEN IF ONLY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF STORMS REACH THAT LEVEL. ...ERN NC... SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS NOT VANISHED ALTOGETHER BUT IS DECLINING ACROSS THIS REGION AS BULK OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES OUT TO SEA. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN INVOF SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM NRN NC. HOWEVER...BOTH SFC CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE INLAND AS OFFSHORE BECAUSE OF STRONGLY VEERED FLOW AND DRYING S OF WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES INVOF WARM FRONT FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AND DROP CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 00:39:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 19:39:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410140040.i9E0eMt08857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140038 SWODY1 SPC AC 140036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRP ALI 55 E P07 45 S MAF 35 SE BGS 30 SSW ABI 10 SSW AUS 50 SSE AUS 30 SSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRE 40 WSW GSO ROA 15 ENE SHD MRB 15 NW ILG 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DMN 60 SW SVC SAD 25 NW SVC TCS 30 NNE ALM ROW 65 NNW ABI MWL 40 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS.... DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING/DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND LIFT TOWARD MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...LOCATED IN BASE OF LEAD UPPER TROUGH...IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR WAVE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE LIFTED PARCELS LIKELY HAVE ORIGINS IN HEATED WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...RISK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT AT TOP OF DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER MAY STILL BE WARM/UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ...TEXAS... LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAKENING TRENDS TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN TEXAS...PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING NORTH/WEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. AS COLD FRONT SURGES/REDEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND AREA THIS EVENING...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION MAY BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED THROUGH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 05:53:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 00:53:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410140554.i9E5s3t28466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140552 SWODY1 SPC AC 140550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM MOB 30 E TOI 50 NE MGR AYS 35 S JAX 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 45 E ATY 35 SW OTG 15 SE YKN 40 SSW MHE 40 ENE PIR 25 SSE BIS 60 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 25 S AUS 15 ESE LFK 50 SE SHV 40 S PBF 60 SW ARG 20 NW SDF 35 WSW MGW 15 ENE BWI 20 SSW POU 25 NNE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES.... PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT FEATURES EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... AND VERY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET MIGRATING AROUND ITS NORTHERN/ EASTERN PERIPHERY. JET STREAK AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE BEGUN TO DIG MORE STRONGLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FORMING HIGH AMPLITUDE...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAKER WAVE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD THIS FRONT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD NEAR GULF COASTAL AREAS. THIS LOW/WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATES INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...HOWEVER...AND THIS REVOLVES MOSTLY AROUND RECOVERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH MID DAY APPEARS LIKELY...AND PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION APPEAR LIMITED...AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA PARISHES...THEN BY EARLY EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL DEVELOP IN UNSTABLE OFFSHORE AIR MASS...WHERE CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND ...PROVIDING MAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR COASTAL AREAS. AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY EVOLVING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY POSE ADDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION UNLIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS... MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS.... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL WAVE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 12:39:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 07:39:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410141240.i9ECe0t30121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141238 SWODY1 SPC AC 141236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 40 ENE MOB 35 N DHN 55 NNW AYS 25 WNW SSI 30 S JAX 30 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 35 ESE SHV 50 N GLH 15 NNE DYR 40 NNE SDF 20 E LYH 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL 25 S POU 15 ESE BOS ...CONT... 10 W LRD 35 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 35 NE ATY 35 ESE HON 10 SW 9V9 25 ESE PHP 50 SW MBG 35 SSE BIS 60 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF COAST AND SERN STATES... ...NERN GULF COAST INTO SRN AL/GA... DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES. AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO DOWNSTREAM POSITION...INTENSIFICATION INTO A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...PRIOR TO SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...TO AS FAR E AS CNTRL SC SWD ACROSS ERN GA AND THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY 15/12Z. EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN AND N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY RECOVERING IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE TX COAST WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED EWD TODAY BY NARROW AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER THETA-E BEING ADVECTED NWD IN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND INHERENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...CONTRIBUTING TO THE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG/ PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE FL PNHDL INTO SRN PARTS OF AL AND GA. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION TO ONSHORE PORTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AT THIS TIME OWING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND IT/S INTERACTION WITH A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45KTS/. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN SQUALL LINE /QLCS TYPE/ OR WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE E IN WARM SECTOR. ...SRN FL... TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN FL AND THE KEYS WITH APPROACH OF WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A ROTATING STORM OR TWO...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. ...ND... STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE STORMS LATER TODAY INVOF SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 16:20:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 11:20:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410141621.i9EGL5t13078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BVE 30 E MOB 25 SSE TOI 25 N ABY 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL 35 S POU 15 ESE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 55 NE ATY 25 NE BKX 20 SE HON 35 ENE PIR 35 SSE BIS 45 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 35 E DRT 45 ENE LRD 15 NE ALI 50 SSE VCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 SSW HEZ 30 SE JAN 40 SSW CBM 40 ENE DYR 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK 10 ENE HLG 20 SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NE GULF COAST EWD TO THE NE FL AND GA COASTS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS UNDERWAY WITH ONE INTENSE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER AR/MO AND ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS AND MN...RESULTING IN A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN INVOF OH AS THE AR/MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WITH 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 M/ ROTATES EWD THEN NEWD BY LATE TONIGHT. S OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE NE GULF COAST AND APPALACHIANS BY LATER TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ...NE GULF COAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NW GULF. THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIMITED MERIDIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RATHER POOR UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...S FL AREA... A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS S FL IN RESPONSE TO THE MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE MOIST PROFILES WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 19:59:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 14:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410142000.i9EK0Bt31949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141956 SWODY1 SPC AC 141955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 15 SW MAI 25 S ABY 40 WNW AYS 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL 35 S POU 15 ESE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM GPT 15 ENE MEI 15 SSW CBM 30 NNE TUP 35 NE MKL 25 S PAH 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK 10 ENE HLG 20 SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA... ...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA... BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN FL AND SRN GA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT. RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE...BUT MOISTENING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA OVERNIGHT. TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF WRN FL PNHDL SHOULD EXPAND AND INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS MAY OCCUR OWING TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE LOW- MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER STRONG...SWLY H5 FLOW OF 65 KTS ATOP SWLY H85 WINDS OF 45 KTS. THUS...ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER TONIGHT. MARGINALITY OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER... WILL LIKELY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. ...SRN FL... SRN PERIPHERY OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO GRAZE SRN FL LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE MIDLEVEL CONVECTION NOTED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SW OF KEYW INVOF AN OLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS. THE MIDLEVEL FLOW IN SRN FL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT. ...LWR OH/MID TN VLYS... A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF 150 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN KY AND MID TN. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONG SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 00:53:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 19:53:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410150054.i9F0sKt03032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150052 SWODY1 SPC AC 150050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 35 ENE MAI 25 NNE VLD 30 WNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 55 SSW GNV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVE SEM BHM 35 ENE HSV 25 SSE BWG OWB 30 N EVV BMG 10 ENE MIE FDY 35 N CLE ERI BFD 30 ENE PSB 30 NE CHO 40 S CHO 50 N RWI 30 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FLORIDA AND SRN GEORGIA.... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK HAS DEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW. THIS IS OCCURRING AS ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AS UPSTREAM FEATURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING IMPULSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORMATION OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LACK OF WARMER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LACK OF MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS. ...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 50F...IS CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN BAND OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA... WHICH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH VERY WEAK CAPE WILL MINIMIZE VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTION IN RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AHEAD OF LINE ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KTS...SO LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS SEEMS LOW. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 15/06Z. ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS AXIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING... WHICH COULD POSE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE NEAR NORTHERN/WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS... MODELS STILL SUGGEST INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET. GIVEN CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES... WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NEAR COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 05:47:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 00:47:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410150548.i9F5mGt09375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150546 SWODY1 SPC AC 150545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10 SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST RETROGRESSION OF UPPER HIGH AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BROADENS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES MIGRATING AROUND NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. A JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TOPPING RIDGE NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...MODELS INDICATE LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN GULF STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. A COUPLE OF SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COMPOSE BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. ...MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES... IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRENGTHENING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ENHANCED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...WHICH BY DAYBREAK APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOW TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF PRIOR SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S... CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE IN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME MAY BE SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...VEERING FLOW WILL MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER... STRONGER STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM OFF COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE. 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MODEL FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS... PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 13:04:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 08:04:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410151305.i9FD58t26639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151302 SWODY1 SPC AC 151300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10 SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE AROUND THIS FEATURE. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER OH ATTM WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS GA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE ERN TROUGH IS NO LONGER DIGGING WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA THIS AFTERNOON. ...FL PENINSULA... AT 12Z...SRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SC SWD TO ALONG THE GA COAST...THEN SWWD TO LEVY COUNTY FL AND INTO THE GULF. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM ERN SC TO NRN FL/ERN GULF...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE GA/SC BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN FL. MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS /LOWER 60S/ ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PER TAMPA 12Z SOUNDING WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/...DESPITE SOME SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES CENTRAL FL WILL FURTHER INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KT THIS MORNING. ...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ERN NC/SERN VA... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SRN EXTENT OF VORTICITY WITH THE UPPER OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL ERN NC/SERN VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS FORCING...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT INLAND DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON...STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. HOWEVER...IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/SERN VA COASTAL REGIONS...THERE WOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL PA INTO WRN NY... AS VERY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER OH /-26C AT ILN 12Z SOUNDING/ SPREADS NEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND INTO WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 16:24:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 11:24:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410151625.i9FGPHt28610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151613 SWODY1 SPC AC 151611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ORF 25 SE RIC 30 NE RIC 10 ENE DCA 30 ESE BWI 10 N DOV 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 WNW DAB ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 10 NNE EKN 25 NW HLG 25 ENE FWA 25 WSW LAN 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DELMARVA... ...DELMARVA... VERY STRONG TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION OVER ERN U.S. THE S/WV INITIALLY AT 12Z FROM OH VALLEY SWD WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WRN OH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS SEWD WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER LWR MI SAT AM WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET ACROSS TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NWD FROM LE ACROSS LH THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DEEPENING SERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN PA SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON DELMARVA AS THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION IMPLIED BY THE 180M 12HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AT ILN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WITH LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ONLY INTO THE LOW 60S...MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE 500 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT IN PLACE COUPLED WITH THE 80 PLUS KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA DURING AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV TROUGH...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED GENERALLY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF BLUE RIDGE. PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG KINEMATICS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ...SRN FL... FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN FL WILL CLEAR THE PENINSULA BY LATER THIS EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SMALL AS THE DEEP TROPICAL AIR IS NOW S AND E OF FL. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THRU THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP SERN COAST PROVIDED SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN SET UP INLAND GIVEN THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT. ANY STORM ALONG SEA BREEZE WOULD BE IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 19:43:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 14:43:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410151943.i9FJhvt02125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151942 SWODY1 SPC AC 151940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RIC 15 NNW RIC 20 ENE CHO 25 S MRB 20 E HGR 35 N BWI 30 E BWI 35 NNE NHK 25 SE NHK 35 ENE RIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 NW HSE 15 SSE ECG 20 SW ORF 40 SSE RIC 25 SW RIC CHO 20 SSW MRB HGR 15 SSW LBE 35 NE ZZV 35 NNW MFD 25 SSE FNT 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... FMY 10 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN VA AND CNTRL/ERN MD... ...NRN VA-CNTRL/ERN MD... 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING VCNTY KCHO WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT NWD INTO CNTRL PA AND A TRAILING DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL NC. PRIMARY WARM CONVEYER BELT AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAVE RAPIDLY MOVED EWD...WITH THE BACK EDGE SITUATED ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY EWD. IN ITS WAKE...DRY SLOT HAS WORKED NWD INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM CNTRL VA NWD INTO THE KCXY AREA. INSOLATION HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60F. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE CENTERED OVER NRN VA AND THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR KIAD BY EARLY EVENING. CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VLY OF NRN VA EWD TOWARD THE FREDERICKSBURG/WASHINGTON/FREDERICK AREAS. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WIND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. IF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN INDEED DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO TOO. FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY DIMINISHES OWING TO MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF H5 HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLD RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY. ...SRN FL... SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH VERO BEACH AND FORT MYERS PER WSHFT AT BOTH SITES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE FLOW REMAINS VEERED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN SUPPORTING SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT...BUT LIFE CYCLES SHOULD BE SHORT. NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..RACY.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 00:48:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 19:48:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410160049.i9G0nMt03412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160047 SWODY1 SPC AC 160046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 40 NNE ORF 25 WSW DOV 10 WSW PHL TTN EWR 10 WNW ISP 15 WSW BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SPREAD INTO REGION. FRONT WILL PROGRESS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION FORMED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHERE MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED NEAR THE GULF STREAM. PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...BETWEEN POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET AXES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 05:14:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 00:14:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410160517.i9G5HAt23333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160513 SWODY1 SPC AC 160511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK UCA ELM 30 N MSV 10 N ALB EEN 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 20 ENE SBY 45 N RIC 20 WSW SHD 25 NW MGW ERI 60 W BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL COOLING/DRYING HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM. NEXT IN SERIES OF JET STREAKS/SHORT WAVES TOPPING RETROGRADING PACIFIC RIDGE IS ALREADY DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE INLAND. MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND IS NOT PROGGED TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINING DRY...PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR REMOTE. ...UPPER OHIO/LOWER LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST... STRONG MID/UPPER JET IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL TURN EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY MID DAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AS LOW AS -28C...LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS EARLY AS 18Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...DEVELOPING IN COOLING CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 12:47:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 07:47:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410161248.i9GCm8t03584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161245 SWODY1 SPC AC 161243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK 45 NNE UCA 45 ENE UCA 20 SW GFL 15 ENE EEN 20 WNW PWM 40 NW EPM ...CONT... 10 SSW WAL 40 N RIC 20 WSW SHD 10 NW HLG CAK 30 NNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 35 E MRY 45 NE SMX 35 NW PMD 20 NNE RAL 25 W TRM CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS GULF OF AK TROUGH DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE WA/OR COAST...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE SUBSEQUENT DISPLACEMENT OF LARGE...COLD GREAT LAKES TROUGH NNEWD INTO CANADA. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TURN EWD AND TRACK OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. RECENT INTRUSION OF COLD/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO TO NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID MS VALLEY JET STREAK SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NERN STATES. THESE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28C AT DVN 12Z SOUNDING/ WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...LAKE INDUCED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER AND IN LEE OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO TODAY...AS COLD LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /0 TO -4C AT 850 MB/ SPREADS ACROSS WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES /15-17C/ STRENGTHENING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ...PORTIONS OF SRN CA... LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF SRN CA COAST...IS PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD SRN CA IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPSTREAM GULF OF AK TROUGH. AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EWD TOWARD SRN CA BY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 16:12:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 11:12:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410161613.i9GGDAt05142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161608 SWODY1 SPC AC 161606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ORF 30 S CHO SSU 25 S 5I3 15 N JKL 25 W UNI 20 NE CMH 20 NNW MFD 20 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MSS 35 SSW BTV 20 WSW MWN 30 N AUG HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OH/KY EARLY...THEN SPREADING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN VORT MAX...COOLING ALOFT AND LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT THUNDER TO OCCUR AS WELL. ...SRN CA... UPPER LOW WITH CENTER APPROXIMATELY 325 NM OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST AS OF 16Z WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN CA BY SUNDAY MORNING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IN UPPER REACHES OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THEREFORE...WHILE AN ISOLATED STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA...WILL OPT TO REMOVE 10 PERCENT THUNDER LINE. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 19:30:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 14:30:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410161931.i9GJV7t08069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161929 SWODY1 SPC AC 161927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL RIC 10 SW CHO 25 SE MGW 25 NE LBE 30 NE FKL 30 SW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 15 ESE ALB 25 N ORH 20 WNW PWM HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A STRONG MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NRN VA AND MD ATTM. SPORADIC TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET STREAK TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GRTLKS WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES REMAIN LONG. ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ...SRN CA COAST... UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FILLING AND EJECTING NEWD. IT SHOULD REACH SRN CA BY 12Z. COOLING ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT OVER SRN CA AND ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PER VSBL SATELLITE AND LONG RANGE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA. THIS SUPPORTS THE REMOVAL OF 10 PERCENT+ GENERAL TSTM LINE IN EARLIER FORECAST. ..RACY.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 00:51:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 19:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410170051.i9H0ptt12272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170050 SWODY1 SPC AC 170048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 10 S DOV 20 SSW ABE 20 ENE AVP 15 S BGM 20 S ELM 20 SSW JHW 10 SW ERI 45 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 3B1 40 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE UPPER-LOW NEAR ONTARIO AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ACROSS WRN PA. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS NY AND COULD SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF NH...VT AND ME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S F AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 05:15:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 00:15:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410170516.i9H5GWt25264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170514 SWODY1 SPC AC 170513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ARG 25 ENE HRO 15 SE SGF 40 NNE SGF 30 SSW JEF 30 ENE VIH 30 SSW BLV 10 SW MDH 20 WSW PAH 15 NW DYR JBR 45 W ARG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W P35 10 NNW DNV 35 SSW CRW 35 ENE TRI 50 WSW AVL 30 S MSL 15 E PBF 30 W PBF 45 ESE FSM 50 NW FYV FLV 15 W P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST 25 NW YKM 20 N 4OM 10 NNE 63S 30 N 3TH 45 ESE MLS 35 WNW PHP 30 NNW BBW 50 NNE HLC 50 NNE GCK 35 SSW EHA 35 SE LVS 50 SSE GNT 50 NNE SOW 25 SE SGU 40 ENE SCK 35 SSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO AND NE AR... ...MID MS VALLEY... A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E TX AND THE OZARKS THIS EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT QUICKLY NWD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 70 F REACHING THE SRN OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AR AND WRN TN. STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE MO AT 06Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BUT THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LESS BECAUSE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SWIFT WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER QUICKLY EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP IN NE AR AND WRN TX AS STORMS INITIATE...SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 05:26:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 00:26:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410170527.i9H5RZt28789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170525 SWODY1 SPC AC 170524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ARG 25 ENE HRO 15 SE SGF 40 NNE SGF 30 SSW JEF 30 ENE VIH 30 SSW BLV 10 SW MDH 20 WSW PAH 15 NW DYR JBR 45 W ARG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W P35 10 NNW DNV 35 SSW CRW 35 ENE TRI 50 WSW AVL 30 S MSL 15 E PBF 30 W PBF 45 ESE FSM 50 NW FYV FLV 15 W P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST 25 NW YKM 20 N 4OM 10 NNE 63S 30 N 3TH 45 ESE MLS 35 WNW PHP 30 NNW BBW 50 NNE HLC 50 NNE GCK 35 SSW EHA 35 SE LVS 50 SSE GNT 50 NNE SOW 25 SE SGU 40 ENE SCK 35 SSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO AND NE AR... CORRECTED WRN TX TO WRN TN IN LAST PARAGRAPH ...MID MS VALLEY... A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E TX AND THE OZARKS THIS EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT QUICKLY NWD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 70 F REACHING THE SRN OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AR AND WRN TN. STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE MO AT 06Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BUT THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LESS BECAUSE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SWIFT WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER QUICKLY EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP IN NE AR AND WRN TN AS STORMS INITIATE...SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 12:56:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 07:56:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410171257.i9HCv9t03059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171254 SWODY1 SPC AC 171252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE LIT 25 SSW HRO 20 NNW SGF 35 WSW JEF 40 WSW STL 10 WSW MVN 40 NNW HOP 45 E MKL 35 S MKL 40 ENE LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST EAT 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 75 NW FCA 70 NW FCA GTF COD CPR MHN 10 NE MCK LHX RTN 45 SE LVS ABQ U17 CDC 70 W P38 BIH FAT SCK EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 LAF DAY HTS 35 ESE 5I3 TRI RMG TCL JAN 35 N ESF SHV 35 ENE PRX JLN STJ P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE PWM 3B1 70 WNW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OZARKS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA AND NV... WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING SRN STREAM FLOW EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...BEFORE TURNING EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE CA/NV TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION. ...SRN MO/NRN AR TO MID MS VALLEY... EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE LA/AR BORDER AND THEN ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD TODAY AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM OK/TX EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE CA/NV UPPER TROUGH. BY LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 03Z/...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS TO SWRN MO AND SEWD TO NRN AL/GA. MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS AR THIS EVENING AND INTO SRN MO TO WRN KY/TN TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA/ARKLATEX...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN AR/MO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO 30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY. SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT THIS EVENING. STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION...WITH INCREASING WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO AR/MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING SEVERE THREAT EWD TO SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN. ..PETERS/HART.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 16:13:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 11:13:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410171613.i9HGDht25433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171608 SWODY1 SPC AC 171607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE HOT 35 ESE FSM 30 N SGF COU 40 NW STL 15 E SLO 20 NNW HOP 55 SW CKV 35 S MKL 15 ESE HOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 20 ESE OLM 30 NE SEA 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 90 ENE 63S 10 NNE MSO 10 ENE WEY 55 NNE BPI 25 SSE LND 40 NNW LAR 25 NW BFF 50 ESE CDR 40 SE MHN 20 SSE MCK 10 ESE GLD 20 NW LIC 35 WSW COS 35 N LVS 35 SE ABQ 45 NNW SVC 55 SSW INW 10 ESE CDC 10 E ELY 20 S NFL 10 SSW RNO TVL 60 SSE TVL 45 ENE MER 25 N MER 30 ESE SAC 25 NW SAC 55 NW UKI ...CONT... 35 SSE VCT 35 ESE ACT 20 W PRX 25 W JLN 25 SSW FNB 35 WSW LWD 30 E OTM 15 S LAF 20 NW BKW 20 W HSS 10 NW RMG 25 SSW BHM 30 SE LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 20 WSW BHB 50 NNE 3B1 80 WNW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN MO/NRN AR TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE RAPID READJUSTMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY OVER THE CONUS. STRONG SEWD DIGGING TROUGH OFF PAC NW COAST HAS OPENED UP OLD CLOSED LOW W OF SRN CA WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING EWD AS A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS SWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE A LOW DEVELOPING LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS SWRN TROUGH REACHES ERN KS/OK BY 12Z MON. SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40-50 KT BY THIS EVENING SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GRADUAL VEERING TO MORE SWLY AND SHIFTING EWD TOWARD LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER WRN GULF IS RAPIDLY BEING TRANSPORTED NWD THRU ERN TX/LA INTO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT AHEAD OF SWRN S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG UPPER JET. ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY... PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY TONIGHT ACROSS MO/NRN AR. WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS ALREADY ONSHORE TX...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATING NEWD ON THE 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET...A MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ERN TX INTO SRN AR WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG COASTAL TX TO 2000 J/KG SRN AR. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LLJ NOW EXTENDING INLAND FROM GULF OF MEXICO TO THE W OF HOU. WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER FARTHER N TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF THE FAST MOVING TROUGH AND 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND PVA WITH TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODELS BRING THESE PARAMETERS TOGETHER BETWEEN 03-06Z VICINITY SRN MO/NRN AR WITH AN EXPANDING AREA REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WITH ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ...NRN CA... VIGOROUS S/WV OFF PAC NW COAST WILL DRIVE INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR THIS EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES SAC VALLEY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS...CONTINGENT ON THE AIR MASS ADDED A CONDITIONAL LOW PROB OF SEVERE NRN CA ...PARTICULARLY NRN SAC VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 05:59:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 00:59:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410180601.i9I61ft02471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180600 SWODY1 SPC AC 180558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PBF 25 NE HOT 50 N HOT 40 NE SGF 15 ESE SZL 40 E STJ 30 WSW LWD 30 NNW LWD 25 ESE DSM 15 NNE PIA 30 SSW MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 N LEX 55 SSW LEX 20 SE BNA 35 NE UOX 50 E PBF 15 WNW PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 SSW GGG 45 ENE TUL 25 NW CNU 35 N RSL 40 E SNY 55 ENE CAG 50 SE VEL 25 WSW U24 40 W ENV 30 NNE OWY 10 NW HLN 75 SSW GGW 35 NNE DIK BIS RWF 10 ENE CGX MFD 25 NE MGW 10 SW BWI 25 SW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW FMY 50 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 30 NNE CAE 10 WSW AHN 50 SE MEI 35 WSW HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY... ...MID MS VALLEY/WRN OH VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN OH AND TN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS THE CONVECTION DRIFTS EWD...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN AR AND MO...HELPING SFC TEMPS TO HEAT UP QUICKLY INTO THE 80S F BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL SET UP AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS AR...SE MO AND WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO INITIATE EAST OF THE SFC LOW NEAR ST LOUIS BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE EVENING SSWWD ACROSS SE MO AND ERN AR. THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ST LOUIS AT 21Z MONDAY SHOWS ABOUT 55 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND MATURE...MOVING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS SERN MO AND SRN IL. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS MERGERS IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE STORMS SHOULD RETAIN A SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID TN VALLEY. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 12:30:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 07:30:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410181232.i9ICWVu11055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181230 SWODY1 SPC AC 181228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELD 40 NNE TXK 20 SE FSM 35 ENE SGF 30 NW COU UIN 20 SE BMI 30 SSW MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 N LEX 55 SSW LEX 20 SE BNA 40 NW MSL 40 NNW GWO 40 NE ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE PSX 35 ESE CLL 45 SW TYR 30 SSW PRX 25 NW PGO 25 WNW JLN 30 N EMP 40 W CNK 45 SW IML 20 WNW 4FC 10 NW U28 30 SW U24 35 SSW ENV 20 E TWF 20 SSW MQM 45 ENE WEY 20 WSW SHR 35 NNW 81V 35 SSW Y22 35 ENE MBG 35 E ABR RWF 10 ENE CGX MFD 25 NE MGW 10 SW BWI 25 SW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 30 NNE CAE 10 WSW AHN 50 SE MEI 35 WSW HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AR/MO...EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER AS IT BECOMES FOCUSED FROM WRN TN INTO SRN OH. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW EXPANSIVE MCS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN RECOVERING AIRMASS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE WRN EDGE OF THIS EXPANDING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS AND WARM SECTOR RECOVERY WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN MO WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEW POINTS ALREADY RISING THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S...ANY APPRECIABLE HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION DESPITE THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST THINKING IS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT EWD DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL AR...NEWD INTO SRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION...AND WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...ACTIVITY ACROSS AR MAY SLOWLY INTENSIFY...EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION. ..DARROW.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 16:16:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 11:16:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410181618.i9IGIhu30194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181611 SWODY1 SPC AC 181609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MLU 30 SSE TXK 40 E FSM 30 E SGF 30 SSE IRK 30 WNW SPI 20 NE CMI 35 S MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 E LEX 30 WSW LOZ 55 SE BNA 25 W HSV 50 ESE GWO 35 NNE MLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ABR 45 E ABR 25 W BKX 35 W YKN 25 NW EAR 15 SSE IML 25 WNW 4FC 45 NE U28 40 ENE U24 35 N OGD 20 SSE PIH 20 SW MQM 40 NE WEY 40 SE 4BQ 35 ENE MBG 45 NW ABR ...CONT... 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA ...CONT... 35 SSE VCT 35 SSE AUS 30 ESE ACT 30 W PRX 30 NW PGO 15 NW UMN 15 NNE MKC 35 ENE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 SW CGX 15 ESE TOL 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE CRE CAE 20 NNW ATL 25 SW AUO 30 NW PFN ...CONT... 20 WNW FMY 30 NNE GNV 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 25 NE IPT 25 ENE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THRU OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SURFACE LOW SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES IT BY TO THE E. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL/NRN KY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO WRN TN/OH VALLEYS TO THE S OF WARM FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE S/WV TROUGH AND VIGOROUS MID/UPPER JET HAS RESULTED IN LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WRN OH VALLEY SWWD INTO AR. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN ELEVATED...HOWEVER BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E/W ACROSS AR THAT ARE SURFACE BASED. EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG ARE AVAILABLE. MUCH OF AFTERNOON PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS AR INTO NRN MS AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND SHIFTS GRADUALLY EWD. CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS THAT IS SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FURTHER N TO THE E OF SURFACE LOW...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND ACTIVE SEVERE POSSIBLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING IN THE CLEAR SLOT MOVES ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE E OF THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOME. THE DRY LINE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN AR SWWD INTO NERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARMING IN WAKE OF THE S/WV TROUGH AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AREA. HOWEVER WITH LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS FAR S AS SWRN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 19:57:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 14:57:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410181959.i9IJxIu02347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181957 SWODY1 SPC AC 181955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLH 10 SSE TXK 25 ESE FSM 25 SSE SGF 10 E JEF 25 S SPI 25 NW HUF 40 E BMG 45 NE SDF 30 E SDF 55 E BWG 30 NNW CHA 30 SE HSV 50 ENE GWO 45 WSW GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA ...CONT... 45 NW ABR 45 E ABR 25 W BKX 35 W YKN 25 NW EAR 15 SSE IML 40 SW DEN 35 W MTJ 40 ENE U24 35 N OGD 20 SSE PIH 20 SW MQM 40 NE WEY 40 SE 4BQ 35 ENE MBG 45 NW ABR ...CONT... 30 SW GLS 55 E CLL 50 SE DAL 30 W PRX 30 NW PGO 15 NW UMN 15 NNE MKC 35 ENE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 SW CGX 15 ESE TOL 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE CRE CAE 20 NNW ATL 25 SW AUO 30 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 25 NE IPT 25 ENE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-LWR MS AND LWR OH VLYS... ...LWR-MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE MID MS VLY REGION. MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT...LATEST MESOANALYSIS/VWP/PROFILERS SHOW A VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...AIR MASS HAS BECOME BUOYANT WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE WITH MINIMAL CINH. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTRL/ERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SWELLING CUMULUS ACROSS AREAS BETWEEN TBN-STL. THESE WILL LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS AND MOVE INTO SRN IL AND FAR W KY LATER THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED... CONSIDERABLE SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER IS QUITE STRONG AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...ATOP THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL FROM CNTRL IL INTO SWRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING. TO THE SW...LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUPPORTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...THOUGH THE AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON TSTMS DEVELOPING SW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE TSTM INITIATION...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK AS FAR S AS THE LA BORDER. THE ETA REMAINS EMPHATIC ON DEVELOPING TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING...EVIDENTLY IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NERN TX INTO SRN AR. BUT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR ACTUALLY SHOWS INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IF TSTMS INDEED DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 00:57:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 19:57:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410190059.i9J0xEu16316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190056 SWODY1 SPC AC 190055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLH 15 SSW ELD 30 WNW ELD 45 ENE TXK 30 SW ARG 45 N POF 10 SW ALN 35 SE SPI 25 WNW HUF 25 ENE BMG 40 SW LUK 10 SE LEX 40 WSW LOZ 45 ENE HSV 20 SSW CBM 45 S GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CRE 20 SSE CAE 15 WSW LGC 30 W LUL 10 SSW POE LFK 10 ENE TYR 45 ENE PRX 30 E PGO 50 ESE HRO 45 ESE TBN 35 WNW STL 30 ESE IRK 55 W LWD 20 ENE OMA 55 NNE OMA 15 SSW FOD 15 W MLI 30 SSE CGX 45 SE DTW 15 SW JHW 30 ENE IPT 10 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HLC 35 ENE GLD 10 E BFF 15 SE 81V 55 S GDV 30 NW DIK 30 NNW BIS 20 SW JMS 30 SW ATY 20 WSW OLU 55 SSW HSI 10 WSW HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...MID MS VALLEY/TN AND OH VALLEYS... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM NRN LA EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ERN AR...SE MO AND SRN IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN IL AND SE MO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS THE STRONGEST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...03Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN KY SHOW LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING BELOW 800 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 500 TO 700 METERS WILL RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS SUPERCELLS TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH STORMS THAT TRACK EWD IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT IN FAR SRN IL AND NEAR THE OH RIVER IN WRN KY. ALSO...STORMS THAT TRACK EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN TN SHOULD HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY NEAR CELL MERGERS. IF A NEARLY SOLID LINE CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS KY...TN AND AR...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 05:56:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 00:56:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410190558.i9J5wRu29288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190555 SWODY1 SPC AC 190554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOB 10 SW JAN 45 S GLH 35 SSE PBF 50 NE PBF 30 N MEM 55 NNE MKL 30 S OWB 40 E BMG 20 WNW LUK 40 SSE LUK 35 W JKL 45 SSW TYS 20 NE ATL 25 ENE CSG 30 N DHN 40 SW TOI 55 NNE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25 ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S MHE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 50 SSE DLS 70 SE BNO 30 NNE EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GLS 50 NNE HOU 60 NNE LIT 10 SE SLO 20 NW IND 30 N DAY 30 WSW HLG 20 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...TN VALLEY/MS/AL/GA... MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN LA ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN KY. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND THE DAY 2 SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE WRN TN VALLEY BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 80S F YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN MS IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STORM INITIATION APPEARS MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN NRN MS AND SRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION BUT STORMS STILL SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS NRN MS AND AL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY ACROSS NW MS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE SSEWD DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IF SFC TEMPS CAN WARM MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS MS AND AL...A COLD POOL COULD DEVELOP WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NW MS...AL AND NW GA. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MS AND AL. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET...REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN OH VALLEY AND NRN TN... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT ACROSS SRN IND...KY AND TN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 12:39:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 07:39:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410191241.i9JCfCu09784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191239 SWODY1 SPC AC 191237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 WNW MLU 25 WNW ELD 15 NE HOT 15 W ARG 20 SSE CGI 10 E PAH 40 WSW HOP 35 E MKL MSL 40 N GAD 20 E GAD 30 SW ANB 15 WSW 0A8. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25 ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S MHE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 70 SE BNO 30 NNE EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 40 S TYR 45 NW HOT 20 NNW MDH 20 WSW IND 10 NE DAY 20 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST... HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NCNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WLY COMPONENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...ALTHOUGH 850MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...ONGOING E-W MCS MAY NOT PROGRESS SIGNIFICANTLY SWD BUT RATHER STALL ACROSS NRN MS/AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM OVER AR/MS MAY HOWEVER AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG ERN-MOST EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. LATEST THINKING IS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NRN LA INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/MS WHERE STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. E-W BAND OF STORMS ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING MAY NOT PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE ORIENTATION TO THE MEAN WIND. HOWEVER...LATER DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 15:52:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 10:52:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410191554.i9JFsQu08983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191549 SWODY1 SPC AC 191547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CEW 35 S LUL 30 SW MLU 25 WNW ELD 20 ESE LIT 30 SW JBR 20 SSE CGI 10 E PAH 40 WSW HOP 40 N MSL 15 S HSV 30 WSW ATL 25 W MCN 25 WNW MGR 20 ESE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IML 45 WSW SNY 45 W BFF 40 E 81V REJ 30 SSE Y22 45 NNE PIR 9V9 ANW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL OLM RDM 90 SSE BNO 45 SW OWY OWY 50 NW TWF SUN IDA RKS 50 E VEL GJT CNY MLF 65 W P38 70 SE BIH NID 35 S BFL 10 WNW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NW BPT LFK CLL 45 SSE SAT HDO JCT BWD FTW PRX HOT ARG CGI MDH SLO MTO LAF FWA FDY MFD PIT LBE HGR ILG ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SWD ALONG PAC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OR/NRN CA COAST. DOWNSTREAM THERE IS A RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM SWRN U.S. EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. MID/UPPER SPEED MAX SRN PLAINS THIS AM WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD GULF STATES TO THE S OF CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ...LWR MS VALLEY AND GULF STATES... APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER SPEED MAX WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE GULF STATES THRU THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE NOW VERY RICH GULF AIR MASS ONSHORE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG SPREADING EWD ACROSS AL INTO SWRN GA...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MS RIVER TO WRN GA. SFC-1KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 20KTS NEAR GULF COAST TO GREATER THAN 30KTS INLAND GULF STATES PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL GA/NRN AL INTO SWRN TN...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MORE DISCRETE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WIND MAX AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA THIS AM...THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING POTENTIAL E OF COASTAL RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR THEN OTHER PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM UP TO 400MB AND FAVORABLY STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN....SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON IF IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ..HALES/EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 19:45:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:45:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410191946.i9JJkvu13177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191943 SWODY1 SPC AC 191942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CEW 40 WNW MOB 25 N HEZ 35 ENE ELD 55 WSW MEM 30 SW DYR 40 SW PAH 15 SSE PAH 25 SW HOP 35 NE HSV 25 NE CSG MCN 20 NW MGR 20 SE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW GLD 45 ESE FCL 45 W BFF 40 E 81V REJ 30 SSE Y22 45 NNE PIR 9V9 25 SE LBF 35 WNW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL OLM RDM 65 ENE BNO SUN IDA RKS GJT CNY 65 W P38 70 SE BIH NID 35 S BFL 10 WNW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NW BPT LFK CLL 35 S AUS 40 SSE JCT 35 ENE SJT 15 NW FTW 45 SE PRX HOT CGI SLO LAF FWA MFD LBE HGR ILG ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS... ...SERN CONUS... STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO GA / THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS ERN AL / CENTRAL GA...WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AS 60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MS ESEWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN AL...WITHIN AREAS COVERED BY ONGOING TORNADO WATCHES. BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...YIELDING MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS -- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES -- WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. ...NRN CA... TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN CA AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO INHIBIT HEATING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE BAY AREA INTO THE SACRAMENTO / NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS GIVEN DRYING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY JUST OFF THE CA COAST. WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE...STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTING ACROSS THIS AREA WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 00:45:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 19:45:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410200046.i9K0kiu26174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200044 SWODY1 SPC AC 200042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PNS 20 NNW MOB 40 SW LUL 35 NNE MCB 30 SW JAN 20 NW JAN 40 N JAN 50 NNW MEI 20 ESE MGM 40 NNE DHN 25 NNE MAI 15 SE MAI 15 NE PFN 15 NNW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SNY 20 SW BFF 55 E DGW 30 WSW RAP 45 NE RAP 35 W PIR 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW ANW 20 NNW LBF 30 E SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 55 ESE OLM 20 E DLS 30 WSW RDM 45 NNE LMT 65 E 4LW 70 W OWY 30 SE BYI 45 SE MLD 50 W VEL U28 50 WNW 4HV 45 SSW U31 60 NNW BIH FAT 10 NW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GLS 45 SE LFK 20 ESE ELD CGI 25 SSW HUF 30 WNW DAY 20 SE HLG 30 ESE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL ERN MS AND SRN AL... ...SE MS/SRN AL... A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM CNTRL MS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. ...WRN KY AND NRN KY/SW TN... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WRN/NRN KY AND SW TN. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES NWD FROM TN AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 04:58:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 23:58:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410200459.i9K4xgu31744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200457 SWODY1 SPC AC 200456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 10 NE RBL 25 ESE SVE 30 E WMC 35 SSE OWY 30 NW BYI 45 ENE SUN 35 NNW IDA 45 NE IDA 20 W JAC 30 WNW BPI 50 WSW PUC 45 SE SGU 20 ESE EED SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS 15 SW TYR 40 ENE PRX 45 E PGO 55 NW LIT 15 W DYR 55 SSE PAH 45 W LUK CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 NW GSO 25 NW SOP 20 WNW GSB 50 W ECG 30 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SRN AR EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL MS AND SRN AL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND A WEAK CAPPING SHOULD KEEP STORM COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE ALONG OLD LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. A MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 12:41:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 07:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410201244.i9KCidu31279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201240 SWODY1 SPC AC 201238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 10 NE RBL 25 ESE SVE 30 E WMC 35 SSE OWY 30 NW BYI 45 ENE SUN 35 NNW IDA 45 NE IDA 20 W JAC 30 WNW BPI 50 WSW PUC 45 SE SGU 20 ESE EED SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS 15 SW TYR 40 ENE PRX 45 E PGO 55 NW LIT 15 W DYR 55 SSE PAH 45 W LUK CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 NW GSO 25 NW SOP 20 WNW GSB 50 W ECG 30 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...THEN SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED REGIONS OF ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS RETURNED TO THE GULF COAST STATES WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE AOA 70F. THIS AIRMASS WILL NEED LITTLE ENCOURAGEMENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION FROM AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE APPEARS TO REFLECT A ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY AID INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROVE ACCURATE FOR THIS REGION...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL DEEP CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT. ...ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SWWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING ZONE OF WAA OVER THE NRN PLAINS...BUT REMAIN THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DOMINANT SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 16:30:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 11:30:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410201632.i9KGW5u22440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201628 SWODY1 SPC AC 201627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS 20 ESE ACT 30 NNE GGG 35 NNW ELD 50 NE PBF 15 W DYR 20 ESE PAH 45 W LUK CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 WSW GSO 40 WSW SOP 15 SSE FAY 35 ESE RWI 15 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 25 NE RBL 20 ESE SVE 30 WSW WMC 40 NNE WMC 80 WNW OWY 45 SSE BNO 45 NE BNO 35 ESE BKE 25 NNW SUN 60 ENE SUN 30 NNE JAC 40 NNE BPI 50 NNE PUC 30 W 4HV 45 NW GCN 20 E EED 10 S SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH STRONG TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SEWD OVER CA...DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING CENTRAL CONUS. UPR LOW CENTER INITIALLY SFO BAY AREA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN NV WHILE A VORT CENTER NOTED ON WV IMAGERY W OF BAY AREA DROPS SEWD TO MOVE INLAND VICINITY CA/BAJA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD FROM NC ACROSS TN VALLEY THEN TO N TX. IN THE WEST A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NV CROSSES COAST JUST W OF SAN WITH FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INLAND AREAS OF GULF STATES THIS AM...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME QUITE SMALL. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY STORM ORGANIZATION. FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN CA. THE LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS COASTAL SRN CA WILL END SHORTLY AFTER 17Z AS FRONT PASSES INLAND. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND THRU THE PERIOD. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 19:29:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 14:29:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410201930.i9KJUru23650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201928 SWODY1 SPC AC 201927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HOU 30 SE CLL 35 W LFK 40 ENE SHV 25 WNW GLH 20 NNE MEM 45 WSW HOP 15 ENE BWG 40 WNW LUK 20 SW HLG 25 SSE MGW 10 E PSK 15 WSW HKY 25 SSW CLT 35 NW FLO 35 N CRE 10 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 25 NE RBL 20 ESE SVE 30 WSW WMC 40 NNE WMC 80 WNW OWY 45 SSE BNO 45 NE BNO 35 ESE BKE 25 NNW SUN 60 ENE SUN 30 NNE JAC 40 NNE BPI 50 NNE PUC 30 W 4HV 45 NW GCN 20 E EED 10 S SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ALONG THE W COAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS / THE MS VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY INVOF COLD POOL MOVING SEWD ACROSS CA / NV. IN THE EAST...ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...ALTHOUGH MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AL / GA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IN EITHER AREA. ..GOSS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 00:47:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 19:47:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410210048.i9L0mlu14266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210046 SWODY1 SPC AC 210044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE GPT 50 ESE MCB 10 SW MCB 30 ESE ESF 35 NNW ESF 20 SE ELD 30 SSW PBF 20 N GLH 30 SSW UOX TUP 50 S MSL 30 W AUO 15 N VLD 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S UKI 55 NNE SAC 35 ENE WMC 30 W TWF 25 NW MLD EVW 45 NW 4HV 40 NNW PRC 45 SE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL AND PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER WRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND SCATTERED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SERN U.S....A LARGE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PERSISTS S OF BACKDOOR FRONT LOCATED OVER GA AND S OF STATIONARY FRONT FROM SRN AR THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED. ...SWRN U.S.... ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM CA THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AREA...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 05:31:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 00:31:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410210533.i9L5XIu28227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210531 SWODY1 SPC AC 210529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 30 WNW JMS 40 S P24 40 SSE ISN 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU 55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO 40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN OK EWD INTO SRN AR WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. BY TOMORROW EVENING...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY ERN NEB SEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND INTO NRN AR. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES NWD. THOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS 40 KT...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO BELOW 30 KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. NEVERTHELESS...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...W TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO SRN/CNTRL KS... MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT INTO W TX THURSDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BACKS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING...AND MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD UNDERNEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE...AND THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM W TX THROUGH W OK. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH MAY ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 05:33:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 00:33:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410210535.i9L5Z3u29134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210532 SWODY1 SPC AC 210530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 30 WNW JMS 40 S P24 40 SSE ISN 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU 55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO 40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN OK EWD INTO SRN AR WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. BY TOMORROW EVENING...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY ERN NEB SEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND INTO NRN AR. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES NWD. THOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS 40 KT...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO BELOW 30 KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. NEVERTHELESS...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...W TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO SRN/CNTRL KS... MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT INTO W TX THURSDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BACKS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING...AND MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD UNDERNEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE...AND THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM W TX THROUGH W OK. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH MAY ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 12:46:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 07:46:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410211248.i9LCmWu13752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211244 SWODY1 SPC AC 211242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU 55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO 40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... MARITIME TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES ITS NWWD RETURN ACROSS TX/OK AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO WRN OK. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIATING TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PARTLY DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO PERSIST UNTIL LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. THIS INCREASE MAY ALLOW FOR STORM MERGERS AND CLUSTERING THAT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD NEWD ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...1000-1500 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE...MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. ...IA... LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHERE SLOW MOISTENING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED AROUND 850MB MAY YIELD CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. IF THIS EVOLVES AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN SUFFICIENT FORCING MAY NOT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT RISK WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 16:11:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 11:11:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410211612.i9LGCwu18241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211603 SWODY1 SPC AC 211601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 SW HEZ 10 NE GLH 25 SE UOX 20 N BHM 40 NW MCN 25 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 10 SE GDP 35 N HOB 10 SSE AMA 25 E LBL 20 E GRI BKX 35 NNE ATY 45 NE STC 40 NNW VOK 20 SSW RFD 35 NNW PIA 10 S UIN 25 ENE FYV 45 SE FSM 25 NNE SHV 45 ENE CLL 10 WSW AUS 20 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 20 WNW TCS 25 SE FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH THAT DROPPED SEWD OFF CA COAST OVERNIGHT NOW TURNING EWD AND WILL CROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA INTO AZ BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... MOIST GULF AIR MASS OVER SRN PLAINS IS SPREADING NWD AS THE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES. BY THIS EVENING DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING THRU THE 60S AS FAR N AS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH LOW 70S INTO NWRN TX AND OK. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM SPREADING EWD ACROSS PLAINS TONIGHT...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE PERIOD. THE STRONG RIDGE/SUBSIDING AIR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE SWRN U.S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING INITIALLY NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WRN TX WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST AND AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING TO 40-50 KT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD THRU THE PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD NEWD THRU WRN OK TO KS. A FEW ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEVERE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ...AZ... VERY IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. LARGE AREA OF PCPN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN AZ...WITH LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/ERN AZ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TODAY WITH AND BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF PCPN BAND AND WITH THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 20:01:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 15:01:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410212002.i9LK2Yu06504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211959 SWODY1 SPC AC 211957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 15 ENE MCB 25 SSW GWO 20 NW CBM 25 ESE BHM 25 WNW TLH 35 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 10 SE GDP 35 NNE HOB 25 E AMA 35 S DDC 35 WSW BIE 10 SSE HON 50 SSW AXN 60 SSE DLH 50 NE EAU 10 SW LNR MLI 10 S UIN SGF 25 E MKO 20 SSW ADM 20 SW BWD 20 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 30 SSE DAG 25 SSW DRA 35 SW P38 40 NNW 4HV 20 WNW EGE 35 SE ASE 30 ENE ALS 35 NNW LVS 20 WNW TCS 25 SE FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NEWD INTO WRN OK... WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF W TX NEAR DRYLINE...WHICH IS NOW SHARPENING FROM ROUGHLY CDS TO MAF. WITH ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MEANWHILE...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH...STORM INTENSITY MAY LIKEWISE INCREASE SOMEWHAT. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...S CENTRAL AZ... VORT MAX WITHIN BASE OF LARGE MID-LEVEL WRN U.S. TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE SRN CA / NRN BAJA COAST ATTM...WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN AZ NWD INTO PARTS OF NV AND UT. JUST AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION / CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ AND NWD INTO CENTRAL AZ...DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL COOLING IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER W...SOME MINIMAL AMOUNT OF COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY APPRECIABLE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION GIVEN GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...IF A FEW STORMS COULD ORGANIZE -- EVEN BRIEFLY...STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS COULD EASILY DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 5% WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL / S CENTRAL AZ FOR THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING BEFORE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM MITIGATES ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 00:52:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 19:52:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410220054.i9M0sBu13940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220052 SWODY1 SPC AC 220050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 45 E MCB 40 WNW MEI 20 SW TCL 15 NNE MGM 25 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 35 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 40 N LAS 20 ENE PUC ASE 45 NNE SAF 25 SW 4CR 20 W ROW 45 NNW HOB 35 W HUT 25 NE OMA 30 WNW MKT 25 WNW EAU 40 ESE VOK 20 WSW PIA 10 NNW TBN 20 N DUA 35 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN TX AND OK THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO... SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION TONIGHT THROUGH OK...KS AND MO WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION AS WELL AS A GENERAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIATION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT 2-6 KM SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ESPECIALLY FROM WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 06:04:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 01:04:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410220605.i9M65vu30364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220603 SWODY1 SPC AC 220601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ICT 35 ENE OLU 30 ESE 9V9 55 WNW AXN 20 NNW DLH 10 NW EAU 25 S DBQ POF 20 SE TXK 35 W AUS 30 W JCT 30 SSE BGS 35 SSW LTS 30 E ICT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ 45 N EVV 40 E MEM 35 ENE MEI 25 SSW CEW ...CONT... 35 SW GPT 10 NE ESF 20 WNW LFK 50 SE SAT 10 SSE LRD ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 25 WNW MAF 20 NNE CDS 25 ENE P28 25 SE CNK 30 WSW BIE 30 SSW HSI 25 WNW HLC 40 WSW GLD 25 NNE LHX 45 SSW PUB 50 S GUC 20 NW MTJ 45 W CAG 25 NW RWL 40 SE 81V 20 WNW JMS 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 35 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO SERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SWRN MN...IA AND INTO IL WITH A DRYLINE SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME ERN NEB...ERN KS...CNTRL OK AND WRN TX. OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO MN AND WI...WHILE THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE OVER ERN NEB AND CONTINUES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS AND E CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER JET NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON . THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR NEAR TRIPLE POINT AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT FROM THE SW. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF EXTREME ERN NEB...SERN SD INTO WRN IA AND SWRN MN. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET AND CONVERGENCE NEAR TRIPLE POINT MAY PROMOTE STORM INITIATION IN THIS REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NW TX NEWD THROUGH OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTENING...DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF W TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX...ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY AND MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY INTERCEPT STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEEP SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 12:27:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 07:27:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410221229.i9MCTPu01992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221225 SWODY1 SPC AC 221224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP 30 WNW OMA 30 N YKN 55 WNW AXN 30 NNW BRD 40 SW IWD MSN ALN JBR PBF 30 W JCT 30 SSE BGS 35 SSW LTS EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ EVV 40 E MEM 35 ENE MEI 25 SSW CEW ...CONT... 35 SW GPT 10 NE ESF 20 WNW LFK 50 SE SAT 10 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SW GDP 50 WNW LBB 50 SSW GAG 25 ENE P28 25 SE CNK 30 WSW BIE 30 SSW HSI 25 WNW HLC 40 WSW GLD 25 NNE LHX 45 SSW PUB 50 S GUC 25 W MTJ 45 W CAG RWL 40 SE 81V 20 WNW JMS 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 35 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE U.S...WITH SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. UPSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM BAJA INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS COMPOSED OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. TONGUE OF 60S/70S DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE WEST OF RETREATING EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO WARMTH OF MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET TO THE WEST OF RIDGE AXIS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT TODAY. ...EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA... MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY ...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING/ STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS HEATED MOIST AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALONG WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORCING PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...LOWER MISSOURI INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TAKES ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS PROGGED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. THOUGH LACK OF HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT STEEPNESS OF LAPSE RATES AND CAPE...FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR NEAR 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS... VERY MOIST AIR WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE OZARK REGION. WHILE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY... MID-LEVEL CAP LIKELY WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HAIL THREAT MAY BE FAIRLY LOW DUE TO HIGH FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO LEVELS. LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOLIDIFICATION/SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH...BUT MEAN FLOW FIELDS SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS... HEATING/MID-LEVEL COOLING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 16:30:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 11:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410221632.i9MGWBu21899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221629 SWODY1 SPC AC 221628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BIE 30 WSW EAR 35 S ANW 25 NW 9V9 45 WNW AXN 50 SSW DLH MSN ALN 30 SE JBR 40 E ELD 60 WNW COT 50 ENE P07 35 E ICT 20 S BIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 SW PVW 50 SSW P28 10 NE RSL HLC 45 SSW GLD 10 WSW RTN 40 ENE 4SL DRO 25 E GJT 30 NE CAG 50 NNW DGW GFK 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 WNW ANJ 20 N SDF 30 SSE MSL 45 NNW GPT 10 NE ESF 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB/S-CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM NOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND LIKELY SHIFT NWD INTO FAR SERN SD/SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH DRY LINE ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONG MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM SERN SD INTO ERN NEB. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD ACROSS NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SERN MN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE REGION NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD. HOWEVER...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSPECT OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG CAPPING AND ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. IN FACT...ETA CONTINUES TO FORECAST LITTLE OR NO QPF TODAY OVER THIS REGION. THIS ASPECT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADING TO A MODERATE...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE LOW CENTER/COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY NEAR WARM FRONT BETWEEN 21Z-00Z AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AIDS IN OVERCOMING CAP. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS REMAIN LINEAR ALONG COLD FRONT. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND BECOMES MORE CAPPED. FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL NEB...STRONG CONVERGENCE AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP SUGGESTING A SHALLOW LINE OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES ESEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE HEATING ABATES THIS EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE EWD PUSH TO DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS TX TODAY...WITH 12Z ETA KEEPING H85 WIND SHIFT ALONG A CENTRAL AR TO BIG BEND REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO CENTRAL TX WITH LARGE AREA OF MID 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A H85 DEW POINT NEAR 18C OBSERVED AT DRT THIS MORNING. ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARDS ERN OK...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THE OZARK REGION/MO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PLUME OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER TX INTO SERN OK AND POSSIBLY AR WHERE STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ALONG WRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING NOW IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT...SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/RH IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 20:01:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 15:01:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410222003.i9MK32u02572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222000 SWODY1 SPC AC 221958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BIE 35 SW EAR 25 WNW BBW 20 W 9V9 55 WNW AXN 50 S DLH MSN 30 NNW SPI 10 N MEM 40 N MLU 45 WSW HDO 50 SW SJT 35 E ICT 25 SE BIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF ROW 20 S CVS 25 NNE PVW 15 NNE CDS 50 SSW P28 20 WSW CNK HLC 25 SSE GLD 15 SE LIC 45 SE CYS 45 NNE LAR 45 NE DGW 35 NNW CDR 55 NNW MHN 45 NNE ABR 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 75 NE MQT 15 SW LEX 20 S HSV 30 N JAN 30 SE MLU 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO / UPPER MS VALLEY SWD / SSWWD INTO TX... ...MIDDLE MO / UPPER MS VALLEYS SSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE -- NOW INDICATED ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MN WITH TIME. WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM TX / LA / MS NWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY..AND CONTINUES ADVECTING SLOWLY NWD IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- W OF MOIST AXIS AND BEHIND BAND OF CLOUDS / CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR / TROPICAL PLUME. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NONETHELESS...WITH COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EWD / SEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE / INTENSIFY WITHIN ZONE FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS ERN KS / ERN OK / WRN MO / WRN AR AND THEN SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM...EXPECT TWO MORE ACTIVE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO INCLUDE SERN SD / ERN NEB / IA / SRN MN AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN TX ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. DESPITE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BROAD 60 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE WARM SECTOR / INSTABILITY AXIS WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A VERY LARGE AREA OF FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...DELAYED INITIATION OF STORMS THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT LINEAR ORGANIZATION MAY PREDOMINATE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY THEREFORE BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS. CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE SHIFTING EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OZARKS / ARKLATEX / TX HILL COUNTRY. ..GOSS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 01:12:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 20:12:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410230114.i9N1EHu31019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230111 SWODY1 SPC AC 230109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LWD 50 W LWD 15 SE OLU 55 SSE 9V9 25 NNW HON 65 SSW FAR 30 N AXN MSP 25 SE ALO 15 ENE LWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 30 E BWD 15 N TPL 30 SSE TPL 65 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNW ANJ 25 SSE AZO 35 SW SDF 25 E TUP 55 NNE HEZ 50 WSW POE 30 NNW VCT LRD ...CONT... 25 SE P07 30 WNW SEP 15 SSE ADM TUL 15 SE EMP 30 SSW MHK RSL 25 W HLC 25 WSW IML 40 ESE AIA VTN 10 WSW ABR 20 NNE FAR 45 WNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB...SD INTO IA AND MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S TX... ...NE NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SW MN... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN SD SWWD THROUGH E CNTRL NEB WITH A DRYLINE SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME ERN NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL IA AND INTO NE MO. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SPREADING EWD INTO ERN NEB...ERN SD...AND A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT JUST N OF SURFACE LOW IN SE SD. HOWEVER...THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING RAPIDLY NWD INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER LOW TOPPED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER E CNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER EXTREME ERN NEB. STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ...S TX... ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON SRN END OF CONVEYOR BELT OVER SW TX WHERE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS. ...MID MS VALLEY AREA... STORMS PERSIST ALONG ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SW TX NEWD THROUGH MO AND WRN IL. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG IN THIS AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY. MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 05:43:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 00:43:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410230545.i9N5jOu14784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230543 SWODY1 SPC AC 230542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLV 20 W MMO 35 NNW MSN 50 NE EAU 20 SSW CMX 75 W ANJ 20 NE TVC 20 NW LAN 30 ESE FWA 20 SSE SDF 30 NE BNA 25 NNE MSL 40 WSW CBM 15 SSE HEZ 35 WSW MLU 45 NW ELD 20 WNW ARG 30 NE BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 30 E NIR 25 S ALI 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 30 SSE ELP 30 WNW GDP 10 ESE INK 50 SSE BGS 25 ESE ABI 10 E FTW 25 W FSM 30 SSE SGF 10 ESE JEF 30 SSW BRL 20 SE CID 55 NNE ALO 35 NNW RST 30 WSW MSP 45 E BKX 20 W BKX 50 NE ABR 10 ENE GFK 20 WNW RRT ...CONT... 55 NNW ERI 10 WNW HLG BKW 35 WNW HKY 25 SSW AHN 35 N PNS 35 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 25 WNW GTF 35 SSE 3HT 35 NNW JAC 30 SW SUN 60 SSW BOI 50 NE 4LW 35 N MFR 20 NNW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS THROUGH OH VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY. NRN MOST VORT MAX WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN END VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS AND UPPER OH VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN WI SWWD THROUGH ERN IL AND NW AR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MIDDLE MS THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEYS SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...LOW LEVEL SELY TRAJECTORIES WILL REMAIN FROM MODIFIED CP AIR. THE UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...MEAGER INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND RESULTING SEVERE THREAT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND E OF COLD FRONT WHERE ADVANCING DRYSLOT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SURFACE HEATING ONCE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GIVEN EXPECTED SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN DRY SLOT REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY PORTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION MAY BE FROM NRN IL THROUGH WI WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY EXTEND TROUGH A DEEPER LAYER. FARTHER S...THREAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN PORTION OF TN VALLEY... STORMS ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO SERN TX AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZES. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT REGION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP...EXPECTED SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT OVERALL INITIATION POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 12:22:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 07:22:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410231223.i9NCNXu06733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231221 SWODY1 SPC AC 231219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BLV 35 ESE MLI LNR 20 NNE LSE 30 WSW RHI 40 NNW GRB 10 SSW MTW 25 E MKE 15 SSE SBN IND 25 NW SDF BWG CBM 30 WNW HEZ 10 N SHV HOT 20 NW ARG 10 WSW BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ERI PIT 20 NE BKW HKY 20 SSE AHN 35 N PNS 35 WSW PNS ...CONT... 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 40 WNW SJT 30 ESE ABI 10 E FTW 25 W FSM 30 SSE SGF 10 ESE JEF 30 SSW BRL 20 SE CID 55 NNE ALO 35 NNW RST 30 WSW MSP 30 WSW RWF 15 ENE BKX 65 N ATY 35 WNW BJI 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 15 W GTF 25 SW LWT 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 50 ESE BIL 40 NW JAC 30 SW SUN 60 SSW BOI 50 NE 4LW 25 NW MFR 50 NNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. UPSTREAM ...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BOTH FEATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN ITS FORECAST EVOLUTION...AS IT PROGRESSES INTO/ THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN INTO A COUPLE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS...WITH NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION ACCELERATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING OF BOTH MID/UPPER RIDGE...AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE. DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER...APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF FRONT...TONGUE OF 60F+ DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH COOL/DRY ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE RIDGE SLOW TO WEAKEN...AND FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOIST TONGUE WILL GRADUALLY NARROW THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...AND APPEARS TO LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AS FORECAST BY MODELS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS COOLING/LIFT NEAR UPPER COLD TROUGH SPREADS INTO REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. FORCING NEAR FRONT MAY ULTIMATELY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER SOUTH...SEPARATE AREA OF STRONGER FORCING MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE BASED IN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS. WHILE CAPE MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WARM/MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY LINE BEFORE IT WEAKENS/SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES LATER TONIGHT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 15:55:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 10:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410231557.i9NFvNu09844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231551 SWODY1 SPC AC 231549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW MMO 25 N LSE 40 E BRD 15 ENE HIB 35 NNE RHI 10 SSW MTW 10 SSE CGX 35 SW MMO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 25 WNW SJT 20 NW TPL 45 NW TYR 20 N HRO 35 ENE VIH 25 E UIN 30 S DBQ 45 SSW LSE 35 NNW RST 40 SW STC 55 E FAR 20 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 NNW JHW 35 NE EKN 30 SSE ROA 25 ESE CLT 40 ESE AHN 30 SSW AUO 35 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 55 NNE 3DU 55 ENE HLN 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 40 S SHR 25 W LND 25 ESE PIH 50 WSW SUN 40 SE BNO 55 SE EUG 15 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. NARROW AXIS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... POCKET OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE SAMPLED SOUNDING AT MSP THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG AS AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL WI THROUGH 21Z. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER...AND WEST OF WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NNEWD INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI AND NERN WI. SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...SHOULD INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... WEAK LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MORE LIMITED SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 60-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. THOUGH POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF ACTIVITY SPREADING STEADILY EWD...AND ALSO AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...EXPECT ANY ENSUING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ANY STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 19:57:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 14:57:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410231959.i9NJx5u29121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231956 SWODY1 SPC AC 231954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE JVL 10 NNW OSH 20 NE AUW 35 SW IWD 50 NNW IWD 45 SW CMX 20 ENE GRB 40 SSE MTW 10 NE MKE 15 NE JVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLE 25 NE ZZV 25 S CRW 45 SSW TYS 30 E ANB 30 ENE MCB 35 SE HUM ...CONT... 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 25 WNW SJT 20 NW TPL 40 WSW TXK 15 SSE UNO 45 SSW BLV 20 E BRL 25 NNE MSN CWA 65 NNE EAU 70 SSW DLH 30 ENE BRD INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 55 NNE 3DU 55 ENE HLN 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 40 S SHR 25 W LND 25 ESE PIH 50 WSW SUN 40 SE BNO 55 SE EUG 15 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI / ERN WI... ...WI WRN UPPER MI... NARROW / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN WI ATTM AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE WARM FRONT. BROKEN / ARCING LINE OF ROTATING / LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS ERN WI...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS. COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO REGION OF MORE MARGINAL / ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ...IL SWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY... BROADER WARM SECTOR EXISTS SWD ACROSS IL / IN AND INTO THE LOWER OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...WEAK LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK / DISORGANIZED DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE AS LIMITED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THREAT TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 04:48:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 23:48:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410240449.i9O4nQu31095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240447 SWODY1 SPC AC 240445 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 25 W MFE ...CONT... 40 SE DMN 30 SW ALM ROW 10 S PVW 65 WSW SPS 25 SW ADM 20 WSW MLC 35 SE FSM 15 NE HOT 45 WSW PBF 10 W MLU 15 NNE HEZ 25 ESE LUL 50 NNW PNS 10 WNW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WRN STATES SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...ADVECTING WARMTH/MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE APT TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX TO AR. ...CNTRL TX TO SW AR... AS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN STATES TROUGH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD FROM MEXICO OVER MOST OF TX SUNDAY. THIS MAY HAMPER INSOLATION...BUT RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH 6.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS CNTRL TX. THOUGH ISOLD TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WEAK FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE NOT HIGH. GIVEN A SUSTAINED STORM...HOWEVER ...THE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN AN INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME FROM CNTRL/NRN TX INTO SWRN AR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ONLY ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 12:25:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 07:25:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410241227.i9OCR5u14939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241224 SWODY1 SPC AC 241222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DMN 30 SW ALM ROW 10 S PVW 65 WSW SPS 25 SW ADM 20 WSW MLC 35 SE FSM 15 NE HOT 45 WSW PBF 20 SSW MLU 10 WSW LUL 35 SSW TOI 20 NE MAI 15 ESE PFN ...CONT... 45 S CRP 25 W MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MID/UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD/ EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. FRONT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE OCCLUSION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TODAY. ...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... AHEAD OF FRONT...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH BROADER SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME HAS TEMPORARILY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDDAY...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. COOL/DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. ...TEXAS... FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS. THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE RESTRICTED BY CLOUD COVER...MODELS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. JET CURRENTLY CURVES IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ARC OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE GULF STATES...AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF BAJA. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER WARM/MOIST...ISOLATED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...BUT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH...FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK TOPPING BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 16:33:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 11:33:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410241634.i9OGYju24286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241630 SWODY1 SPC AC 241628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 15 N DMN ROW 50 WNW CDS 20 WSW OKC 20 SW FSM 30 SSW HOT 20 SSW MLU 35 ESE MCB 10 SSW PNS ...CONT... 45 S CRP 25 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BFL 20 SSW MER 35 NNE SAC 25 ESE SVE 20 SE WMC 35 ESE EKO 40 SW DPG 30 NNE MLF 35 SE MLF 20 E SGU 55 E NID 20 W BFL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/SWRN TX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AND AID FOCUSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX AND FAR SWRN LA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD REGION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MINIMIZED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NRN TX HAS BECOME SSELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SERN CO. THEREFORE COVERAGE OF DEEP SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL TX. WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6-6.5 DEG C/KM DUE TO MOIST SWLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. THEREFORE...DESPITE 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SWRN TX NEWD INTO SCENTRAL OK... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT PERMIAN BASIN...AHEAD OF NRN MX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ABOVE RETREATING WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN TX ACROSS NCENTRAL TX INTO FAR SCENTRAL OK. SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO SOMEWHAT COLDER/DRIER MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. WEAK CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL PRECLUDE GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 19:53:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 14:53:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410241955.i9OJtCu27125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241953 SWODY1 SPC AC 241951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 SW HOB 30 ESE CDS 45 NE OKC 40 S CNU 20 N UMN 40 ESE HRO 20 WSW PBF 30 NNE BTR 35 SW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BFL 20 SSW MER 35 NNE SAC 25 ESE SVE 20 SE WMC 35 ESE EKO 40 SW DPG 30 NNE MLF 35 SE MLF 20 E SGU 55 E NID 20 W BFL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SWD INTO TX LAST NIGHT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LFK NNWWD ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX INTO CENTRAL OK -- WILL CONTINUE RETREATING NEWD WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR IN BROAD / WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED HEATING CONTINUES E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DRT TO SEP...WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE... RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH A FEW MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY ATTM. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 2360. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 00:48:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 19:48:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410250049.i9P0nru25453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250046 SWODY1 SPC AC 250044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF BGS SPS 30 E MLC 45 ESE FSM 10 WSW LIT PBF 50 ENE ELD 15 E MLU 25 WSW MCB 35 SSE GPT ...CONT... 10 W GLS 15 WNW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SCNTRL TX INTO WCNTRL LA... WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND HEATING PROVED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL TX TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AR/LA LATER THIS EVENING. STRONGEST TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD THROUGH ECNTRL TX INTO WCNTRL LA ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXISTS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS. FARTHER SW...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL TX TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKENING GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC/18Z ETA SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN NERN TX INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR IS LOW. EVEN IF TSTMS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 04:37:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 23:37:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410250438.i9P4ciu06463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250436 SWODY1 SPC AC 250434 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 40 NW PDX 25 N MFR 20 S MHS 55 NNE SAC 10 WNW SCK MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 25 SSE BTR 40 SE POE 25 NNE HOU 45 N VCT 30 S SAT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 25 ENE PHX 30 ESE FLG 40 SE PGA 60 NNE BCE 35 NE U24 SLC 45 WNW RKS 45 NNW RWL 45 S DGW 20 SW FCL 60 W COS 50 SSE ALS 20 NNW LVS 30 ESE LVS 30 ENE TCC 25 SE LBL 30 SSW ICT 25 SW FNB 40 SW FOD CID 15 NW PIA 45 W MDH 20 WNW MKL 25 E BHM 35 E DHN 20 S TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OCCUR MONDAY. JET ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK INTO THE WRN STATES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MOST OF THE ERN STATES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...A SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL CARRY A DISTURBANCE FROM SRN BAJA ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING MONDAY. A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THESE TROUGHS WITH PROSPECTS FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS. ...SRN PLAINS... PRIMARY WARM FRONT THAT WAS TEMPORARILY DELAYED FROM RETURNING NWD BY SUNDAY'S CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE INTO NRN TX ON MONDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT AVAILABILITY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...BUT COMBINATION OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND QUESTIONS ON MAGNITUDE OF HEATING WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW. MEANWHILE...STRONGER HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AUGMENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN TX HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE. MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. BUT...POOR MID-HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT RISKS FOR HAIL WILL BE LOW. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AS WELL. 00Z GFS/ETA DISAGREE ON WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/PCPN WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT. 21Z SPC SREF IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ETA AND HAS BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWED. ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD FROM SWRN TX INTO OK...AR AND PARTS OF MO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF BOTH THE SUB-TROPICAL AND NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN POINTS FARTHER SW AND GIVEN INFLUX OF 12-14C H85 DEW POINTS AND AMPLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 12:58:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 07:58:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410251300.i9PD00u07774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251257 SWODY1 SPC AC 251255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 40 NW PDX 25 N MFR 20 S MHS 55 NNE SAC 10 WNW SCK MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 25 SSE BTR 45 SE POE 40 NW BPT 45 S CLL 30 SSE SAT 25 NE COT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 30 ENE PHX 30 ESE FLG 40 SE PGA 60 NNE BCE 20 NW U24 SLC 45 WNW RKS 50 NNW RWL 50 SSW DGW 20 SW FCL 60 W COS 50 SSE ALS 20 NNW LVS 30 ESE LVS 30 ENE TCC 35 ESE LBL 15 S HUT 20 SW FNB 55 ENE OMA 30 SSE FOD 10 ENE CID 25 NW PIA 10 SW PIA 45 W MDH 20 WNW MKL 25 E BHM 35 E DHN 20 S TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NE TX... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESO-LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. A MOIST TONGUE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS NE TX AND ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE TO PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD HELP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY DRIFT NEWD INTO SRN MO AND NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MS VALLEY TODAY AND THIS IS SHUNTING THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW NW OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN OK SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10,000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE APPEARS LIMITED ATTM. ...WEST AND NCNTRL TX/WRN OK... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWWD INTO WEST TX TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT FARTHER NW...A CAPPING INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF WEST TX. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE MTNS OF WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO...HELPING THE STORMS TO RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS WEST TX REACHING WRN OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LUBBOCK AT 06Z SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL DECREASE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE TRANSPECOS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT MINIMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 16:02:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 11:02:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410251604.i9PG48u08995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251556 SWODY1 SPC AC 251555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S TUS 25 ENE GCN 55 W P38 65 WSW ELY 55 W OGD 40 ESE JAC 55 SSW GCC 30 NE CYS 45 WSW COS 40 WNW TAD GCK 25 S ICT 15 WSW TOP 35 ESE OMA 40 NNW BRL 20 W SPI 30 SSE HSV 25 NE AQQ ...CONT... 25 NNE BVE 30 WSW ESF 15 SSW CLL 15 WSW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST 25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESEWD AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ...TX INTO THE OZARK REGION... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL OK TODAY...WHILE WRN END CONTINUES A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT INTO SERN NM AND W-CENTRAL TX. WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE BIG BEND REGION NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...WITH A 5F TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT LATE THIS MORNING. AS LEADING WEAK IMPULSE /CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CONVECTION FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO N-CENTRAL TX/ CONTINUES NEWD...AND HEATING ALLOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONT INTO ERN OK/AR/MO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AS WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMIT HAIL GROWTH. FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY ALONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING OUT OF NRN MEXICO. THUS...CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO NWRN TX/OK WILL POSE ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 19:55:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 14:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410251956.i9PJusu05877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251954 SWODY1 SPC AC 251952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BVE 25 W ESF 35 NW LFK 25 NNE AUS 15 SSW SAT LRD ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 40 S FLG 45 NW GCN 55 W P38 65 WSW ELY 10 S ENV 15 NW BPI 45 WSW CPR 20 SE LAR 45 WSW COS 25 W TAD 40 N CAO 20 ESE GLD 30 N HLC 25 SE CNK 35 NNE MHK 20 N OMA 30 SE SPW 25 N ALO 15 S DBQ 15 W SPI 30 SSE HSV 25 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST 25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST TX/OK... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE NEXT 3-9HR AS LLJ INCREASES AND SPREADS ATOP SHALLOW AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK. IN ADDITION...SOME HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THIN OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000J/KG. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITHIN THIS ZONE...THEN SPREAD NEWD LATER THIS EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES ALONG RETREATING LATE NIGHT WARM FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY YET GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 00:45:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 19:45:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410260046.i9Q0kPu06590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260043 SWODY1 SPC AC 260041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE FHU 20 NNE SAD 40 WSW GNT 35 SSW CEZ 20 NE 4HV 60 NNW P38 15 NW TPH 15 S U31 35 SSE BAM 10 E ENV 15 NW BPI 45 WSW CPR 20 SE LAR 45 WSW COS 25 W TAD 40 N CAO 20 ESE GLD 30 N HLC 25 SE CNK 35 NNE MHK 20 N OMA 30 SE SPW 25 N ALO 15 S DBQ SPI 10 NE DYR 40 S GLH 30 E SHV 45 SSE DAL 20 SE JCT 35 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST 25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN-NCNTRL TX... TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ON THE NRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE FROM NW OF KDRT-KDYS WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS NOTED IN THE 00Z KMAF/KDRT SOUNDINGS IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS WERE OBSERVED VCNTY KSJT AND NW OF KDRT. MAIN NEGATIVE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE THE DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR/NW OF KDRT. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SWLY LLJ ACCELERATES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE TX PNHDL-CNTRL/NRN OK-MO OVERNIGHT. THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS WILL BE VERY LOW OWING TO LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 04:53:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 23:53:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410260455.i9Q4tGu09280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260451 SWODY1 SPC AC 260449 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 35 NE PDX 20 E DLS 25 WSW WMC 45 S TVL 35 SSE FAT 25 WSW BFL 25 NW RAL 35 SSW RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 NE PHX 60 SE PGA 20 NW 4BL 50 ENE DRO 50 WSW RTN 30 WNW CAO LAA 25 WNW AKO 20 N BFF 40 N CDR 35 E RAP 10 N VTN 10 SSW GRI 15 SSW OMA 45 SW FOD 20 NW MKT 65 ENE STC 50 NNE EAU 20 NW VOK 25 WSW JVL 15 W SBN 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS CHA 15 ENE GAD 10 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG THE W COAST WILL EDGE INLAND OVER WRN/CNTRL CA TUESDAY. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WAVE TRAIN OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VLY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NWRN CA WILL MOVE S AND E...REACHING THE SIERRA AND NEAR THE LA BASIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT OVER OK/AR WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS VLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE FRONT IN THE WEST AND IN THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS. ...CA... MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER NRN CA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET /H5 TEMPERATURES BELOW MINUS 25C/ MOVE INLAND. ANY HEATING IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS. HIGHER RISKS FOR HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM KSFO NWD SINCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL HUG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY AUGMENT STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE FRONTAL RAINBAND AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CNTRL VLYS AND S INTO SRN CA LATE TUESDAY. SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM... THOUGH HEATING WILL BE MITIGATED BY CLOUDS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA/LOS ANGELES COASTS. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME ENLARGED WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. THUS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ISOLD TORNADOES COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MID MS VLY... ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST AIR MASS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTING AREAS OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL. HOWEVER...TO THE S OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT INSOLATION COULD RESULT IN STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY. IF THIS KIND OF BUOYANCY IS REALIZED...REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN 40-45 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD RESULT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK DOES NOT SEEM JUSTIFIED ATTM. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 12:58:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 07:58:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410261259.i9QCxSu14737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261257 SWODY1 SPC AC 261255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 35 NE PDX 65 SE DLS 10 SSW WMC 45 S TVL 10 E FAT 25 E BFL 20 S PMD 35 SSW RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 NE PHX 60 SE PGA 35 NNE 4BL 40 NNE DRO 10 SSW LVS 15 NNW DHT 45 ESE LAA 30 NE AKO 20 N AIA 45 SSE RAP PHP 25 NNE ANW 10 SSW GRI 15 SSW OMA 45 SW FOD 20 SSE MKT 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY SPREADING A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD TOWARD LAX THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT ADVECTS SWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WHICH WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL CONSIDERING THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. AS THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND SFC TEMPS WARM UP...A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL EXCEED 50 KT. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 25 KT IN THE LA VICINITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...MID-MS VALLEY... A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS...FARTHER SOUTH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP INTO THE 80S F IN FAR SE MO AND ERN AR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. AS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER NE OK AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD...NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AND THIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 15:35:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 10:35:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410261536.i9QFaRu01964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261531 SWODY1 SPC AC 261529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 35 NNW PHX 35 ESE GCN 30 NNW 4BL 25 SSE MTJ 35 NW ALS 50 N CAO 45 ESE LAA 20 NW HLC GRI 30 E OFK 15 SW SPW 20 WSW MSP 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 40 NNW DLS 60 SE DLS 10 NW BNO PIH 30 WSW BPI 35 S EVW 35 SSE SLC 15 SSW U31 45 NNE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... VERY STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ALONG AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW SHIFTING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD /INCLUDING SMALL LINES AS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SANTA BARBARA/. HOWEVER...MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /H5 TEMPS AOB -26C/ AND ONSHORE FLOW IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS AFTERNOON HEATING SUPPORTS MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS TODAY WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR SHALLOW SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WITH SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WITHIN FRONTAL BAND CONVECTION MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... WARM AND MOIST PROFILES WILL PERSIST WITHIN SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE FOCUSING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY SHIFT NEWD...WITH LEADING SYSTEM NOW OVER MO/IA SHIFTING ENEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO SWRN TX OVERSPREADS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. APPEARS FORECAST AND OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HAIL GROWTH AND DOWNDRAFT INTENSITIES. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 19:44:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 14:44:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410261946.i9QJk7u08545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261941 SWODY1 SPC AC 261939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 15 ENE ELD 15 WSW SHV 45 NNE HOU 55 SE PSX 45 ENE CRP 35 N NIR 40 SE HDO 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 35 NNW PHX 25 SW PGA 40 NE U17 15 W MTJ 40 NNW ALS 20 SW CAO 30 NE DHT 20 NW HLC GRI 35 S SUX 25 SW FOD 30 ENE MKT 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 40 NNW DLS 60 SE DLS 10 NNW BNO 30 W BOI 60 NE SUN 35 WNW JAC 50 SW BPI 25 ESE SLC 55 S ELY TPH 50 SSE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... BROAD BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE...WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS CNTRL CA INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE NRN CA COAST INTO THE ERN PACIFIC BENEATH THE UPPER VORT DROPPING SWD. THIS POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED WITHIN A REGION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. IT APPEARS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN SIERRA NV RANGE...WWD TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EVEN SO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 00:57:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 19:57:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410270059.i9R0x7u26409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270056 SWODY1 SPC AC 270055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 25 SW MHS 55 SSE 4LW 45 NW WMC 35 SW OWY 65 SSW TWF 35 NNW ENV 35 NE ELY 60 SSW ELY 30 E TPH 20 NE BIH 40 SSE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 30 S SAD 20 W SOW 65 WNW GUP 40 ESE DRO 40 N SAF 15 W ROW 20 S INK 20 N ABI 15 SSE DEC 20 WNW FDY 15 NNE CMH 10 WNW HTS 15 NW CHA 10 E ELD 60 N HOU 40 SSE SAT 15 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR OH VLY... BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT TSTMS IN THE LWR OH VLY/MID MS VLY VCNTY THE WARM FRONT. A COUPLE OF THESE TSTMS BECAME SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MODEST WSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS 0-6KM/. MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 WERE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING GIVEN ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY OVERNIGHT...ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. THESE TSTMS WILL BE OF A MORE ELEVATED CHARACTER AND COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. BUT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ...SERN AZ AND SWRN NM... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S ADVECTED NWD INTO SERN AZ/SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN GULF OF CA. HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POWERFUL W COAST TROUGH WERE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ISOLD TSTMS BECAME ORGANIZED WITHIN THE 55 KT 0-6KM SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT STABILIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. ...CA... POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BENEATH MINUS 26C COLD POOL OVER NRN/CNTRL CA. AS A RESULT...ANY HAIL RISKS WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE. OTHERWISE...FRONTAL RAINBAND HAS SLOWED OVER ACROSS SRN CA. A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED MOVING INTO NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS ONCE EXPECTED. ALSO...AIR MASS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 04:30:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 23:30:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410270432.i9R4W5u09775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270428 SWODY1 SPC AC 270426 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 ESE IRK 25 NW MDH 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 30 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM UOX 60 E LIT 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE STATES...WITH A DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW VCNTY SFO BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND AS LAST STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WAVE TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING NWD FROM DEEP IN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SITUATED FROM THE OH VLY TO OK/KS BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD BE SLOWED AT TIMES BY PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS. TO THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN CA. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IF/WHERE SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN KS INTO MO AND THE OH VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY HEATING ALONE. GIVEN INSOLATION...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG/ WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH KS/NRN OK INTO THE OZARKS. GIVEN 30-35 KT 0-6KM SHEAR...ISOLD STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO GIVE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL. BUT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS LOW. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY. POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CBS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ONE OR TWO TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE LA BASIN WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 55F/ BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. ..RACY.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 13:04:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 08:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410271305.i9RD5du23532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271303 SWODY1 SPC AC 271301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 20 ENE AXN 25 WNW FRM 25 SSE OTM 15 ESE STL 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 20 SE UOX 50 E PBF 45 NNW ELD 35 E DAL 35 E TPL 25 SSW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A LARGE SE US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS KANSAS AND WEST TX WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT DDC SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 40 KT MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN KS. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT FORM IN THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM WEST TX ARCHING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. ...CA... A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD TODAY ALONG THE COAST OF CA. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING IN THE LA BASIN ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET OF 90 KT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE BAND DRIFTS SWD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE SAN DIEGO AREA THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LOW WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION...A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. IF ENHANCED SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL MAINLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST AND ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LA BASIN CREATING A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 16:59:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 11:59:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410271701.i9RH16u21481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271659 SWODY1 SPC AC 271657 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 WNW MCW 25 SSE OTM 15 NNW ALN 40 NW EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 35 WSW CBM 20 W GWO 10 NNE MLU 50 NE LFK 50 WSW LFK 40 ENE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NRN PACIFIC APPROACH WRN CANADA. WRN PORTION OF WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN KS TO THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS SRN CA. RESULTANT SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/ OVER THE LA BASIN AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /LESS THAN -20C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM COVERAGE. LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING PER EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL AID IN GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. STRONGER AXIS OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS WHERE GREATER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. MID-LEVEL SSWLY WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS A 40-45 KT SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY OVER ERN NM...SPREADS NNEWD. THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED UPPER FORCING EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS SUGGESTS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR STORM INITIATION. DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. HAIL/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 19:54:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 14:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410271955.i9RJtHu20863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271953 SWODY1 SPC AC 271951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 WNW MCW 25 SSE OTM 15 NNW ALN 40 NW EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 45 WSW CBM 25 NE GLH 30 NNE ELD 35 NNE GGG 45 WSW LFK 40 ENE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WRN KS...AS EVIDENCE BY NWD CU FIELD EXPANSION. THIS MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WRN-NWRN PERIPHERY OF THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO OK. THIS REGION OF THE HIGH PLAINS POSES SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED...SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KT. SHOWERS...AND MOST RECENTLY ISOLATED TSTMS...ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE NM BORDER WEST OF LBB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE SUNSHINE WILL AID FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR PERHAPS A TORNADO IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE/LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ....SRN CA... SECONDARY POST FRONTAL BAND OF CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ROTATING INLAND ALONG THE SRN CA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM VENTURA COUNTY...SWD TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. AIRMASS HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500J/KG. RESULTANT UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH ONGOING/FUTURE CONVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THIS EVEN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. ..DARROW.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 01:03:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 20:03:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410280104.i9S14ou30840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280102 SWODY1 SPC AC 280101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MRY 65 SE RBL BOI 35 S 27U WEY 20 SW COD RIW CAG ASE 60 W PUB PUB LIC 55 WSW RAP REJ 55 N MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT BRD MCW OTM ALN 35 NNW EVV SDF CRW PSK 40 ENE HKY AND LGC 0A8 25 NE GLH ELD GGG 50 NE CLL 25 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CA...WITH SEVERAL APPARENT VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING COMMON CENTER NEAR SFO BAY. EXPECT THIS VORTEX TO DRIFT EWD TO SIERRAS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. LOW IS PRECEDED BY EXTENSIVE BAND OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION AND W-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS WELL AS E OF ROCKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. AT SFC...WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM BETWEEN PUB-COS ESEWD ACROSS SWRN AND S-CENTRAL KS TO BETWEEN CNU-EMP...AND SHOULD LIFT NWD 10-15 KT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS REGION TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...WITH AROUND 1800 J/KG MLCAPE IN 00Z AMA RAOB AND SOMEWHAT LESS FARTHER N AND S. AMA RAOB AND CVS VWP INDICATE AROUND 150-200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER AND AROUND 45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NEAR PEAK ATTM AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...LLJ INCREASES AND BUOYANCY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SUPERCELL/SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS ERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SERN CO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...WHERE ELY SFC FLOW ENLARGES 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS IN REGION OF WEAK BUT NEARLY UNCAPPED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. S-CENTRAL/SERN KS PROFILER WINDS AND VWP DATA...ALONG WITH TOP RAOB ...INDICATE ROUGHLY 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AVAILABLE FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN TURN RIGHTWARD -- MOVING ENE INSTEAD OF NNE ACROSS WARM FRONT AND INTO MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 06:07:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 01:07:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410280609.i9S69Au09993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280607 SWODY1 SPC AC 280605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AXN 40 W MSP MCW 25 ESE DSM LWD 35 S OMA YKN 40 WNW HON ABR AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 10 S CMH 10 SSE CRW 15 S SAV ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 35 SSE MOB 20 WSW GWO 15 SW LIT PGO ADM 40 WNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GDP 50 ENE DHT RSL EAR 35 E MHN SNY 40 SE ALS GUP EED 60 NE DAG EKO 55 SSW BOI 80 SSE S80 BZN 50 NW MLS 70 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...EXTREME ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE MEAN PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE ADJUSTMENTS. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CA/NV -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL ASSUME POSITIVE TILT ACROSS WRN CONUS...AS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NRN PLAINS...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS INVOF NERN WY AND MOVES GENERALLY EWD TOWARD SERN SD/NWRN IA. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN CO AND N-CENTRAL TO SERN KS...WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD AND ACROSS PORTIONS UPPER AND LOWER MI BY 29/12Z. DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED EARLY IN PERIOD FROM SERN NM TO ERN CO...THEN MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF VERTICAL MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO ITS W. ...UPPER MIDWEST... CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS WRN IA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE AVAILABLE BUOYANCY INVOF WARM FRONT STILL WILL BE SFC-BASED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z WILL BE IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH MOIST SECTOR BEHIND SFC WARM FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. FCST HODOGRAPHS NEAR WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY BACKED SFC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 0-1 KM SRH ON 150-250 J/KG RANGE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 40-50 KT. SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGIME MAY PRODUCE ANY FORM OF SEVERE INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHARPLY DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NEWD OVER DAKOTAS/MN/IA...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG IT IS UNLIKELY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FCST THETA CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SLOPE...AND AREA WILL BE UNDER OR JUST W OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AROUND 21Z. THEREAFTER CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAY ALLOW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION. 45-55 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER DARK WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE FARTHER S NEAR DRYLINE AS WELL WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT27/21Z AND 28/03Z. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 13:05:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 08:05:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410281306.i9SD6Ku20583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281303 SWODY1 SPC AC 281301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW FOD 50 E SUX FSD 20 WSW ATY 60 NE ABR 20 ESE FAR 30 SSE BJI 25 NE BRD 55 E STC 30 NNE MCW 35 S MCW 35 SW FOD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 15 S SAV ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 35 SSE MOB 20 WSW GWO 10 NNE PBF 30 NW HOT 20 ESE ADM 40 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW GDP 45 W AMA 15 W RSL 15 SE EAR 15 NNW LBF 15 S SNY 40 SE ALS 30 W GUP EED 60 NE DAG 35 NE EKO 55 SSW BOI 80 SSE S80 LVM 45 NNW DIK 65 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS...MN AND NRN IA... ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... A LARGE ERN US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ENEWD ACROSS MN AND IA THIS MORNING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FARTHER WEST ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS KS INTO CNTRL NEB. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD...THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NNEWD INTO ERN SD AND WRN MN WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT IN ERN SD AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND THIS WILL MAKE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SW MN AT 21Z SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 9000 TO 11000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL FORMATION. IN ADDITION...50 KTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN MCS FORMATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS TONIGHT AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM KS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX. FAIRLY DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONG SFC HEATING IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM CNTRL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK ENEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS AND COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED. STORM STRENGTH WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE HAIL OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 16:02:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 11:02:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410281604.i9SG43u14186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281559 SWODY1 SPC AC 281558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 30 SSE DHT 20 WSW DDC 15 SW BIE OFK 50 E ANW 30 SW VTN 20 SSE AIA 50 NW AKO 55 NNE 4SL 55 NE INW 30 WNW EED 45 W DRA 10 W ELY 30 WNW IDA 65 WSW MLS 65 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PNS 45 NW MEI 25 ESE PBF 45 WSW HOT 40 ENE DAL 20 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MTC 30 W TOL 15 S DAY 15 NNE JKL 10 NE SPA 35 SSW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE OVERSPREADING ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS. OBSERVED ANALYSES FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ELEVATED ALONG COOL SIDE OF NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN SD INTO SRN IA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MN WILL INHIBIT NWD MOVEMENT TO THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE... LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS CAPPING REMAINS STRONG AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MORNING SHORT-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY OVER THIS REGION. THUS...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ELEVATED STORMS TODAY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK/OK AND TX PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX/DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AMPLE HEATING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES OBSERVED THIS MORNING. THOUGH LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATIVELY LOW ATTM. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 20:00:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 15:00:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410282001.i9SK1Au08195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281958 SWODY1 SPC AC 281956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 40 E TCC 20 SSW GCK 35 NNW CNK 40 N GRI 40 ESE ANW 25 NE MHN 25 SSE AIA 50 NW AKO 55 NNE 4SL 55 NE INW 30 WNW EED 45 W DRA 10 W ELY 30 WNW IDA 65 WSW MLS 65 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PNS 45 NW MEI 25 ESE PBF 45 WSW HOT 40 ENE DAL 20 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MTC 30 W TOL 15 S DAY 15 NNE JKL 10 NE SPA 35 SSW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY... AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN MT/NERN WY WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD AND INTO CNTRL MO. PERSISTENT 25-35 KT SWLY LLJ FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS MAINTAINED ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS TODAY N OF WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NERN SD/SERN ND EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN AND WI. EXPECT LLJ TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS... NWD TRANSPORT OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN REGION OF BROADER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...SRN PLAINS... DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /PER RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS/. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CORROBORATE THESE DATA AND ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. PRIMARY CONCERN...HOWEVER... IS THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH WOULD FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE A WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SWRN KS /W OF DDC/ SWWD INTO THE SWRN TX PNHDL /E OF CVS/. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OR OTHER SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY BREAK THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. CURRENT PROFILERS INDICATE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST. ..MEAD.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 01:13:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 20:13:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410290114.i9T1EZu20525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290111 SWODY1 SPC AC 290109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC MIE LAF MMO MLI SZL CNU PNC END CSM 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 40 E TCC 20 SSW GCK OLU OFK 65 W YKN VTN AIA COS GUP 25 NNW TUS 60 SE BIH ELY MLD BIL 65 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 45 ESE TLH 10 E CEW MEI UOX MKL HOP JKL 30 SE 5I3 60 WNW AND 35 SSE AHN 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE IS ANALYZED ATTM WITH SEVERAL DIFFUSE CENTERS SCATTERED FROM NRN CO TO ERN SD AND SERN MT. HOWEVER...EXPECT DISCRETE LOW TO CONSOLIDATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS NEB/SD BORDER REGION. SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS WRN IA AND NERN MO -- WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN. DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR PRESENT POSITION FROM CENTRAL NEB SSWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...TO SERN CORNER NM. ...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ... LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT...COMBINING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO YIELD 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. PARCELS WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF TSTMS. STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF DRYLINE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. VERY WEAK CAPPING EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG...AND SFC-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 50 KT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION FOR ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ATTM NW OF MAF MAY INTENSIFY...HOWEVER TEMPORAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC-BASED STORMS IS SHORT-LIVED BECAUSE OF ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CINH. ..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 06:07:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 01:07:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410290608.i9T68Cu25880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290605 SWODY1 SPC AC 290603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MTC MBS 45 NNE GRR MKG CGX 45 WSW ARG 45 NNE HOT 40 ENE PGO MLC OKC FLV DSM FOD SPW FSD MHE HON ABR HIB 40 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... PFN 0A8 HOP 35 SSW PAH 35 SSE SHV AUS 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 FST 65 WSW SPS MHK 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE YKN 30 NNW BUB MHN DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ BIS 15 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 N ART ABE DCA CLT 40 SW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE TRACKING TOWARD SRN MN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER CENTRAL/WRN NEB -- WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MOST OF DAY AS IT CROSSES SERN SD AND SRN MN. THIS CYCLONE MAY OCCLUDE BEFORE END OF PERIOD ACROSS ERN MN/NWRN WI AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OVER NRN MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MERGE IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED ZIPPER PROCESS WITH WEAKER COMBINED PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER ERN KS AND OK. DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN TX. RESULTANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT -- SIGNIFYING WRN EDGE OF MOIST SECTOR -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA SWWD INVOF MKC-OKC-ABI LINE DURING 29/23Z-30/00Z TIME FRAME...BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE FROM LATEST SREF MEMBERS AND 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN IA SEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND SRN IL -- WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES STATES AND MI THROUGHOUT PERIOD...REACHING SRN AND CENTRAL ONT BY 30/12Z. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK... ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS -- IS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...AND BENEATH AND N OF NOSE OF MIDLEVEL DRY SURGE. A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO MAY FORM IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CINH. STORMS MOVING N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS HAVING SFC-BASED INFLOW IN WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION...RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AHEAD OF DEEPENING CYCLONE. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN COLD AND WARM FRONTS -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG. CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW BUT MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS ALLOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FARTHER S...PROBABLE COLD FRONTAL ALIGNMENT ACROSS SRN IA AND MO IS MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND AND PROJECTED STORM MOTION VECTORS THAN FARTHER N. THIS...COMBINED WITH STEEPNESS OF FRONT BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL CROSS SECTIONS...SUGGEST QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH EMBEDDED OR EARLY STAGE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DISCRETE SUPERCELL PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FARTHER SWD INTO WRN MO...ERN KS AND NERN OK...WHERE 1. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE WLY AND ACROSS FORCING BOUNDARY AND 2. CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON...AND 3. BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE WITH UPPER 60S/70S F SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. CAPPING...HOWEVER...MAY ALSO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE AND THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. STILL...ANY SUSTAINED STORMS WHICH FORM MAY PRODUCE FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE. LINEAR FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK INVOF FRONT...RESULTING IN THREAT BECOMING PRIMARILY DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT THROUGH CENTRAL/SERN OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ...NERN WI...UPPER MI...NRN LOWER MI...LS AND NRN LM... ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION INVOF NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING THETAE ABOVE RELATIVELY COOL...PRE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECT MUCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG AWAY FROM EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...INCREASING WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC WARM FRONT. SUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT EPISODES OF TSTMS WITH HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. AFTER DARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED MODE CLOSELY WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 12:52:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 07:52:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410291253.i9TCrOu30073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291251 SWODY1 SPC AC 291249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 30 ENE AZO 35 SE CGX 20 S DEC 25 S BLV 25 W POF 55 WSW ARG 25 N HOT 40 S PGO 10 SSE ADM 20 NNE FSI 30 SE END 15 WNW FLV 40 NNW LWD 15 SW FOD SPW 10 SE FSD 35 SW MHE 25 E PIR 40 E MBG 20 NE FAR 40 NNW HIB 35 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N AQQ 45 WNW AUO 50 N MSL MKL 35 SSE SHV 25 NNE SAT 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 10 NNW FST 65 WSW SPS 15 WSW ICT 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE YKN 30 NNW BUB 10 SW MHN 25 SSE DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ 60 WSW DVL 45 E RRT ...CONT... 25 N ART 25 ESE AVP 45 N RIC 15 NNE CLT 30 WSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 15 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE NOW OVER SRN SD WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MN BY EARLY EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WRN IA AND ERN KS. THE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH OK AND TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN KS THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO NW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH SRN PLAINS... RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ HAS ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS SRN MN. SURFACE HEATING...AS WELL AS MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD OVER THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET NOW SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. THIS AND DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL SINCE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT STORMS WILL CROSS INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST S OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND MID LEVEL DRY SURGE FROM EXTREME ERN SD INTO SRN MN MAY STAY SURFACE BASED LONGER WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER S...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF IA SWD THROUGH MO...ERN KS...OK AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS TX. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERLAP THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. BY MID AFTERNOON...0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND 0-2 KM SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 16:07:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 11:07:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410291608.i9TG8gu08875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291600 SWODY1 SPC AC 291558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE P35 10 N DSM 20 WNW MCW 30 WNW MKT 30 SW BRD 35 SSW DLH AUW OSH RFD BRL 45 NE P35. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 35 WNW ADM OKC STJ 55 WSW DSM SPW BKX 9V9 PIR 40 E MBG FAR ELO 85 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA 15 WSW MSV 30 NW ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30 ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI 15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 25 NNE CLL 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC 20 NNE EMP 40 NNW FNB 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E CDR 55 S Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...WESTERN WI...EASTERN IA...AND NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER WY/CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD INTO MN...WITH BROAD WARM SECTOR EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LOW. COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ...SOUTHERN MN/WI/IA/NORTHWEST IL... ETA/RUC/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW INTO WESTERN IA/WESTERN MO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE WARM/MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA AND INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM WOULD SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO BOUNDARY ALSO INDICATE A RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO WI/IL. ...CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI... DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE DLH AREA. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN AWAY FROM THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IF POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR. ...CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN MN... ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL SD. MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SD INTO WESTERN MN AS STRONG UVVS OVERSPREAD ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. REFER TO MCD NUMBER 2364 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...IL/MO/AR/OK... SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD FROM MN/SD LOW INTO WESTERN MO AND CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER FORCING AND MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP...AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HART/BANACOS.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 20:09:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 15:09:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410292010.i9TKANV09138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292007 SWODY1 SPC AC 292005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW OTM 30 NNE DSM 35 W MCW 30 NW MKT 30 E STC 60 SSE DLH 35 W RHI OSH RFD BRL 45 SW OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 30 N ADM 40 W TUL 20 WSW FNB 40 NE OMA 20 WSW SPW 25 ENE BKX 50 SE MBG 50 NE MBG FAR 10 SE BJI ELO 95 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PSX 40 S AUS 30 WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC 30 W EMP 30 ENE BIE 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E CDR 55 S Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA 15 WSW MSV 30 NW ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30 ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI 15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 40 NNE POE 20 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...MN...WI AND IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD/NEB WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NEB. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER NERN SD AS OF 19Z WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI. PRIMARY COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS...WHILE A SECONDARY...WEAKER COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN IA/SERN NEB...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN MN INTO IA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES NOW APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ALONG FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. EVOLUTION INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD #2366. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MN EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT LAKES AS 50-60 KT SLY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WI. WHILE LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEARER TO SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ACROSS WARM FRONT. FINALLY...TCU HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO CNTRL OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TENDS TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING CAP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH AN EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH TIME. ..MEAD.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:05:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:05:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410300106.i9U16mV30131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300105 SWODY1 SPC AC 300103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL OTM ALO 20 E RST 60 NE MSP 40 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD RHI OSH RFD BRL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC JXN LAF MDH POF LIT 25 NNW TXK 15 SW DUA 35 NW MLC 50 ENE CNU LWD 40 N RST 30 E BRD 50 ESE BJI ELO 45 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK MSV ABE BWI 30 ESE CHO LYH 45 ESE PKB ZZV DAY OWB ELD TYR MWL ADM TUL 25 WNW RST MSP STC AXN 50 NNE ATY 30 NE PIR 45 SE Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WI...PORTIONS ERN IA...NWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MI TO ERN OK/WRN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT OVER CONUS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SD. THIS LOW WILL CATCH UP WITH OCCLUDING SFC LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER NERN SD/SERN ND THIS EVENING. RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN REMAINDER TONIGHT....WHILE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NWD ACROSS LS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS IA...MO...OK AND W TX...CATCHING UP TO DRYLINE THAT IS NOW LARGELY STALLED ACROSS TX/OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN MO... POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING ENHANCED FOR TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT OVER NERN MN/NRN WI. REF WWS 869-871...873..AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT OVER WARM SECTOR -- WITH 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER BASED ON RAOBS AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. THEREFORE...MUST CONTINUE TO CARRY TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM PRIMARILY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE AND ROTATING BOW ECHO HEADS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN IA AND WI WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAR E AS WRN UPPER MI AND LM FROM ACTIVITY NOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...SRN MO TO SERN OK/WRN AR... REF SPC WW 872 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER/DIURNAL STRATUS DECK ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...MAINTAINING CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE THAT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AR AND MORE OF SWRN MO THROUGH EVENING. MEANWHILE RELATIVE COOL POCKET LEFT OVER FROM THAT STRATUS COVER WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN OZARKS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO AND WEAKEN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 06Z...WITH MLCAPES IN 700-1100 J/KG RANGE BASED ON MODIFIED SGF/RUC SOUNDINGS. ...IL/LM/LOWER MI AND SERN WI... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT CENTRAL/WRN IL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WAA ZONE FARTHER N NEAR LM...SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD LOWER MI. EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WAA ASCENT PROVIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:16:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:16:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410300117.i9U1HfV01447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300113 SWODY1 SPC AC 300112 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL OTM ALO 20 E RST 60 NE MSP 40 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD RHI OSH RFD BRL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC JXN LAF MDH POF LIT 25 NNW TXK 15 SW DUA 35 NW MLC 50 ENE CNU LWD 40 N RST 30 E BRD 50 ESE BJI ELO 45 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK MSV ABE BWI 30 ESE CHO LYH 45 ESE PKB ZZV DAY OWB ELD TYR MWL ADM TUL 25 WNW RST MSP STC AXN 50 NNE ATY 30 NE PIR 45 SE Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WI...PORTIONS ERN IA...NWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MI TO ERN OK/WRN AR... COR TO REMOVE EXTRANEOUS THUNDER LINE ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT OVER CONUS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SD. THIS LOW WILL CATCH UP WITH OCCLUDING SFC LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER NERN SD/SERN ND THIS EVENING. RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN REMAINDER TONIGHT....WHILE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NWD ACROSS LS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS IA...MO...OK AND W TX...CATCHING UP TO DRYLINE THAT IS NOW LARGELY STALLED ACROSS TX/OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN MO... POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING ENHANCED FOR TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT OVER NERN MN/NRN WI. REF WWS 869-871...873..AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT OVER WARM SECTOR -- WITH 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER BASED ON RAOBS AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. THEREFORE...MUST CONTINUE TO CARRY TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM PRIMARILY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE AND ROTATING BOW ECHO HEADS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN IA AND WI WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAR E AS WRN UPPER MI AND LM FROM ACTIVITY NOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...SRN MO TO SERN OK/WRN AR... REF SPC WW 872 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER/DIURNAL STRATUS DECK ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...MAINTAINING CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE THAT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AR AND MORE OF SWRN MO THROUGH EVENING. MEANWHILE RELATIVE COOL POCKET LEFT OVER FROM THAT STRATUS COVER WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN OZARKS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO AND WEAKEN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 06Z...WITH MLCAPES IN 700-1100 J/KG RANGE BASED ON MODIFIED SGF/RUC SOUNDINGS. ...IL/LM/LOWER MI AND SERN WI... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT CENTRAL/WRN IL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WAA ZONE FARTHER N NEAR LM...SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD LOWER MI. EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WAA ASCENT PROVIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 05:57:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 00:57:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410300558.i9U5wlV21367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300556 SWODY1 SPC AC 300555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ART ITH IPT 35 ESE MGW UNI DAY JXN ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC FYV 60 NNW LIT 25 SSE JBR 40 NW HOP SBN MBL 75 ENE MQT ...CONT... ACY DAN ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CTB 70 NE MSO 45 SSW MSO ALW 55 W YKM 30 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MI TO OH...WRN PORTIONS NY/PA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN CONUS. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN SD IS FCST TO CONTINUE OCCLUDING AND TO FILL THROUGH END OF PERIOD...AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER WRN UPPER MI...SWWD ACROSS WRN WI...MO AND NW TX. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD ACROSS REMAINDER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY...LOSING BAROCLINICITY AS PARENT UPPER PERTURBATION FILLS/EJECTS. STILL...ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD. FARTHER SW...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT FROM ARKLATEX TO W TX WILL STALL...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT LATE IN PERIOD. ELEVATED WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP N OF FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING SRN CA AND NRN BAJA. LATTER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE OVER NWRN MEX -- APCHG FAR W TX -- BY 31/12Z. ...CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES STATES AND OH VALLEY... AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING INVOF FRONT OVER PORTIONS WRN OR CENTRAL LOWER MI NWD INTO ERN UPPER MI...WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT SE OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...OVER MUCH OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA. EXPECT 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F WILL HELP TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY...AND FORCED ASCENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN TSTM LINE. THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES...SBCAPE WILL STRENGTHEN TO ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. THREAT WILL DECREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY AFTER ABOUT 31/00Z...AS BAND OF STRONGEST ASCENT MOVES INTO DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. ...W TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OVER TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXPAND/SPREAD NEWD AND BECOME GREATER IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK --- ESPECIALLY N OF SFC FRONT -- WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. LATE AFTERNOON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 6.5-7/5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F SE OF FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. CAPPING SHOULD RESTRICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. FLOW ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE WEAK BUT WITH MAJOR DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM E... COMBINING WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS TO YIELD 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. 30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND NW TX AFTER DARK...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ELEVATED MUCAPE SHOULD BE UNDER 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS. LITTLE OR NO MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT IS INDICATED THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH MEX TROUGH STILL WELL W...AND CAPPING IS A CONCERN DURING AFTERNOON. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BELOW CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK THRESHOLDS ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 13:35:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 08:35:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410301336.i9UDaqV11830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301257 SWODY1 SPC AC 301255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR ITH 15 SSE IPT 20 WNW CXY 15 W EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 NW JKL LUK 35 NNE DAY 25 NE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SBY 40 W RIC ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 45 NNW HOP 15 NNE BMG 20 ENE AZO 50 N GRR 15 SSW TVC 25 WSW ESC 20 ESE IWD 60 WNW CMX 65 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CTB 70 NE MSO 45 SSW MSO ALW 55 W YKM 30 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY AREA... WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL JETS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN OH SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KY MAY SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND/SHEAR PROFILES... THE STRONGER CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND EVENT. ...W TX... THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SW TX. THE CAP WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION MUCH OF TODAY...BUT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT WHEN DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER PARTS OF W AND N TX. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER N TX...GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO SRN OK OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 15:47:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 10:47:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410301548.i9UFmBV28595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301541 SWODY1 SPC AC 301539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW SYR LBE PKB UNI 45 ENE LUK 35 NNE DAY 35 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DOV 20 NNE LYH ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 WSW COT ...CONT... 25 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 45 NNW HOP 30 WSW LUK 20 SW TOL 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 N OSC 35 S TVC 20 ENE AUW 25 W IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 55 SE FCA 45 SSW MSO 20 SSE ALW 20 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 25 E PDX 50 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF OH...NORTHERN WV...WESTERN PA...AND WESTERN NY... ...EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... POTENT UPPER LOW OVER MN/WI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THIS PERIOD...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A CORRIDOR OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA. THIS AREA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP/SUSTAIN IN THIS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...WHERE MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND SUNSET WILL DIMINISH THREAT. ...TX... AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. THIS AIR MASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK. SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LOW THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS TONIGHT OVER WEST TX. ..HART/BANACOS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 19:49:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 14:49:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410301950.i9UJo0V18027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301944 SWODY1 SPC AC 301943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 55 ENE MKL 15 NNW LEX 10 ENE CMH 45 NNW YNG ...CONT... 15 NNE APN 45 NNW TVC 10 N IMT 20 W CMX ...CONT... 35 ESE DOV 20 NNE LYH ATL 45 ESE MEI 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 55 SE FCA 45 SSW MSO 20 SSE ALW 20 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 25 E PDX 50 S AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER OH VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER L.S. WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS L.H. INTO WRN OH AND INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. THOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS TO WARM AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED....VEERING WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE RESULTED IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. MOREOVER...DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OH...WHICH IS SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. DESPITE STRONG...ZONAL TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE ORGANIZING...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...TX... COLD FRONT HAS EFFECTIVELY STALLED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO SWRN TX /E OF P07/. DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F AND DIABATIC HEATING HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. PERSISTENT WAA COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS WRN TX/PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ARE LIKELY AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM N-CNTRL TX SWD INTO NRN COAHUILA MEXICO. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM VICINITY OF BOUNDARY NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT FORM NEAR SURFACE FRONT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODEST LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2382. ..MEAD.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 00:57:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 19:57:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410310058.i9V0wcV23056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310056 SWODY1 SPC AC 310055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE FCA 65 NE MSO 55 E S80 30 E ALW 55 NE EPH 15 W EAT 50 E SLE 25 NNW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 25 N HOB 25 WSW CSM 10 ESE END 25 SSW JLN 20 NNW ARG 20 S MKL 25 NE MSL 30 NNE CHA 40 SSE TYS 40 WNW AND ATL 40 E MEI 40 SE ESF 35 NW HOU 35 NNW NIR 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW JFK 20 WNW ILG 30 WSW AOO 20 SE FKL 15 WNW JHW 25 NNW BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF WRN AND NRN NY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ERIE / ONTARIO... WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN QUEBEC. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAS HINDERED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM LAKE ONTARIO ENEWD ACROSS NRN NY...BUT EXPECT REMAINING SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS FURTHER STABILIZES. ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX ENEWD TO THE RED RIVER / ARKLATEX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT NOW NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE / INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AXIS OF GREATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000 T0 2OOO J/KG/ EXISTS ACROSS N TX ATTM...WHERE EVENING FWD /FORT WORTH TX/ RAOB INDICATES 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 7 C/KM. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS ACROSS MOST OF N TX AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 05:21:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 00:21:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410310521.i9V5LvV04534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310519 SWODY1 SPC AC 310517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP ROW 10 WNW AMA 20 NNE P28 35 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 25 SE OTM 20 NW SPI 35 SSW HUF 45 S SDF 10 NNE CSV 20 NNE ATL 30 NNE LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 SW MEI 30 E MCB 35 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW U28 30 ENE SLC MLD 20 SE IDA 25 NE JAC 25 S WRL 40 E DGW BFF 25 NNW LIC 25 ESE PUB 25 W TAD 40 SE DRO 40 WSW CEZ 10 SSW U28. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND SRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSING BAJA CA WILL PHASE WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES / HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH -- PARTICULARLY THE SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / SPEED MAX -- WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME PREVAILS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL MAKE RELATIVELY SLOW EWD PROGRESS...A STRONG SWD SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...REACHING WRN OK / THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD PER LATEST ETA FORECAST. ...HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD INTO SERN OK / AR... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN BROAD REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SWRN U.S. UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING. RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM SUGGESTS THAT STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED. DESPITE THIS...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL EXIST OVER THIS REGION. THEREFORE...LARGE REGION OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE INCLUDED FROM PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS THAT AREAS OF GREATER HEATING / INSTABILITY MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS TX / NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS / MID MS / LOWER OH / TN VALLEYS WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 12:55:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 07:55:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410311256.i9VCuGV24185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311254 SWODY1 SPC AC 311252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP ROW 10 WNW AMA 20 NNE P28 35 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 25 SE OTM 20 NNW DEC 35 SSE BMG 35 SSE SDF 20 NW TYS 20 NNE ATL 30 NNE LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 SW MEI 30 E MCB 35 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW U28 30 ENE SLC MLD 20 SE IDA 25 NE JAC 25 S WRL 40 E DGW BFF 25 NNW LIC 25 ESE PUB 25 W TAD 45 SE DRO 40 WSW CEZ 10 SSW U28. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX THROUGH SRN OK AND AR... A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF SW TX NEWD THROUGH N CNTRL TX AND INTO CNTRL AR. AN AREA OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM CNTRL OK EWD THROUGH NRN AR. FARTHER WEST...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO IS SPREADING THROUGH ERN NM INTO FAR W TX AND WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SEPARATE ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EXISTS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH TX AND INTO OK TODAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH WRN/CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH OK. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND PRE-EXISTING MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE TX INTO LA...AND SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE ERN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN AREA MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE INFLOW AIR DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT THROUGH MUCH OF TX...SRN OK AND AR TODAY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 16:14:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 11:14:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410311614.i9VGExV20018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311608 SWODY1 SPC AC 311606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS 30 SSE OKC MKO 30 SSE FYV HOT 30 WNW TXK 45 NNE ACT BWD 35 E ABI SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 20 ENE GDP 35 SW CDS 40 NNW BVO 35 NE COU 40 SSW DEC 40 SW HUF 40 ENE OWB 55 NNW CSV 40 NW HSS 30 ENE AVL 35 S SPA 15 N MCN 55 SE MEI 20 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE RWL 25 NNW FCL 40 W TAD 15 ESE 4SL 50 NW GUP 20 ENE U17 40 NNW PUC 50 S BPI 50 SSE LND 45 ENE RWL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND WESTERN AR... ...OK/TX/AR... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS UPSTREAM JET MAX DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CA INTO AZ. MEANWHILE... BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK/SOUTHERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS TODAY ALLOWING SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUTLOOK AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF INCREASING UVVS AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. ETA/RUC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 19:33:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 14:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410311934.i9VJY8V25142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311932 SWODY1 SPC AC 311930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS 30 SSE OKC MKO 30 SSE FYV 10 W HOT 45 SW TYR 55 E JCT 10 NNE JCT 20 NNE SJT SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 20 ENE GDP 35 SW CDS 40 NNW BVO 35 NE COU 40 SSW DEC 40 SW HUF 40 ENE OWB 55 NNW CSV 40 NW HSS 30 ENE AVL 35 S SPA 15 N MCN 55 SE MEI 20 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE RWL 25 NNW FCL 40 W TAD 15 ESE 4SL 50 NW GUP 20 ENE U17 40 NNW PUC 50 S BPI 50 SSE LND 45 ENE RWL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF TX...OK AND AR... ...TX/OK/AR... 18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS WITH A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD INTO CNTRL OK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOWS MORE WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT STRETCHES ESEWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AR AND NRN MS. FARTHER S...DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E OF DRT NWD TO W OF BWD TO INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT NE OF MLC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED INVOF A MESOLOW ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE E OF SJT...AND POSSIBLY DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NRN MEXICO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION NWD INTO NERN TX/SERN OK HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S INTO LOWER 80S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 60S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN SOME AREAS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND A DECREASING CAP. ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING ACTIVITY NEAR SJT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2383. ..MEAD.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 05:13:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 00:13:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410020515.i925FNt11748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020512 SWODY1 SPC AC 020511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILG 35 ESE RIC GSB 30 W SOP 45 WNW GSO ROA 10 E EKN 40 SE LBE 20 SSW PSB 10 SSE IPT 20 W ABE 10 E ILG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 30 N FLG 55 WNW GCN 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 45 SW SVE 30 NE WMC 40 WNW OGD 25 SSW RKS 45 NE CAG 15 NE 4FC 40 W RTN 50 W CVS 35 NW MAF 20 ESE BWD 20 WSW SHV 25 E GLH 25 ENE SDF 25 WNW CLE ...CONT... 15 NW EFK PWM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN A SWATH OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT FEATURE FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE SRN STATES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL START SATURDAY FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...TO CNTRL TX. NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE MOST RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AIDED BY MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM LAKE ERIE TO NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY EVENING...AND THEN MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FAR WRN EXTENSION OF THE SAME FRONTAL ZONE WILL BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. ...MID ATLANTIC... ANTECEDENT MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. THIS DESTABILIZATION MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE... INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD AID DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND LEAD TO AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NC PIEDMONT NWD INTO PA. RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS JUSTIFY AT LEAST 15 PERCENT HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES. ..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 12:38:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 07:38:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410021239.i92Cdbt26157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021237 SWODY1 SPC AC 021235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN DOV GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY LYH MRB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK PWM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA ...CONT... 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 30 N FLG 55 WNW GCN 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE OWY MLD 25 SSW RKS 45 NE CAG 4FC 40 W RTN 50 W CVS 60 NW ABI SEP SHV GLH BWG 25 WNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NC TO ERN PA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...AND WSWLY SRN STREAM JET FROM NRN BAJA ACROSS AR TO WV. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LS/WI/UPPER MI -- IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH BASE OF MEAN TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH TODAY...AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS SERN ONT AND SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LH SWWD ACROSS WRN KY...NWRN LA...TO BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX -- IS FCST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY END OF PERIOD. FRONT SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY AROUND 02/18Z BY SFC TROUGH FROM NC PIEDMONT NNEWD TO CENTRAL NY. COLD FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY AND S TX INTO NWRN GULF BY 03/12Z. WRN PORTION OF FRONT WILL PENETRATE SWRN NM AND WEAKEN. A FEW AREAS OF MARGINAL TO SLGT SEVERE PROBABILITIES EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY FROM NERN CONUS TO SWRN DESERTS. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS TODAY...MAINLY INVOF PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN CONCERN SHOULD BE DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS...DIMINISHING AFTER ABOUT 03/00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EACH FCST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SIZE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...RESULTING IN UP TO 250 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS ERN PA/NRN MD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR BOTH BOW ECHOES AND ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE CELLS. HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER RESTRICTING SFC INSOLATION...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED EXCEPT IN A FEW AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUD BREAKS. WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL VA SWD...EXPECT MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM 800-1500 J/KG. ...TX COASTAL PLAIN... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS MULTICELL TSTMS ONGOING IN LINEAR MCS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT -- FROM TOLEDO BEND AREA OF TX/LA BORDER WSWWD TOWARD SAT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SWD TOWARD MID/UPPER TX COAST...AND REMAINS OF MCS MAY BACKBUILD/PROPAGATE SSWWD TOWARD LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANY TSTMS INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY BE UNDERCUT BY CAA RELATED TO PRIOR OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS FRONT ITSELF. HOWEVER...AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND COAST SHOULD HEAT DIABATICALLY DURING DAY...COMBINING WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F TO YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE WIND/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ISOLATED HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL TSTMS. ...S-CENTRAL/SWRN NM...FAR W TX... CONTINUED FRONTAL SURGE SWWD OVER THIS REGION -- FOLLOWED BY ISALLOBARIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RESPONSE TO WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CA -- WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ELY FLOW COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS TODAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY VEERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN UP TO 60 KT 0-6 KM NET SHEAR...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK CAPE...RELATED TO POSTFRONTAL NEGATIVE THETAE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MID-LATE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 16:38:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 11:38:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410021640.i92GeFt11250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021636 SWODY1 SPC AC 021634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN DOV GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY LYH MRB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N EFK 15 NNW LCI 25 SSE PSM ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 25 WSW DAB 30 N AGR 35 SE AGR 35 W PBI MIA ...CONT... 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 40 S FLG 65 NE IGM 35 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 20 W OWY 35 SE IDA 25 SSW RKS 30 SSW LAR 15 NW DEN 25 WNW TAD 35 SW TCC 20 NW ABI 30 WNW ACT 40 SSW GGG GLH 45 E MKL 25 ESE SDF 10 NNW CLE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY N INTO HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS SWEEPS E/NE INTO CNTRL QUEBEC. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISTINCT FROM THE SRN PLNS E TO THE NC CST. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL IN THIS BAND OF FLOW OVER NM/SW TX ...DOWNSTREAM FROM DISTURBANCE OFF THE SRN CA CST. AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON VLY ACROSS CNTRL MD AND CNTRL NC INTO N GA BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN TX...WRN PART OF SAME FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...AUGMENTED BY OUTFLOW FROM MCS NOW OVER THE REGION NEAR SAT AND N OF VCT. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC WLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE CORRIDOR IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS FROM NC NWD INTO PARTS OF CNTRL MD/S CNTRL PA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SLIGHTLY STEEPEN AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE ERN GRT LKS. COUPLED WITH FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT MEAN MLCAPE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 TO POSSIBLY 1500 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS STRONGEST UVV LIFTS NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED S OF THE PA/NY BORDER. BUT DIURNAL HEATING OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK FORECAST REMAINS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF PA/MD/VA/NC. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...S TX... MULTICELL MCS NOW OVER S TX IS PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY S LATER TODAY AS SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER REGION. WLY FLOW ABOVE FRONT MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME BACK-BUILDING/WWD DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW DIMINISHES. S OF THE S TX MCS/S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE S TX CSTL PLN AND OVER PARTS OF DEEP S TX...WHERE STRONG HEATING OF WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL BOOST MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 1500 J/KG. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. ...S CNTRL AND SRN NM/FAR SW TX.. SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT WWD IN WAKE OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING S TX AND POINTS E WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND FAR SW TX LATER TODAY. FACTORS OFFSETTING MORE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE INCREASED MIXING AND GRADUAL INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD INTO MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROXIMITY OF SRN STREAM JET WILL PROVIDE AMPLE /50 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WIND. BUT RELATIVELY LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 2 20:05:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 15:05:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410022006.i92K6ct20420@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022001 SWODY1 SPC AC 021959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TTN 15 WSW ORF GSB SOP 40 ENE HKY 15 ESE LYH 15 SSE PSB 30 NW IPT AVP TTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 SW SOW 40 S FLG 60 NNE IGM 30 WNW LAS 30 N NID 40 SSW BIH 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 20 W OWY 35 SE IDA 25 SSW RKS 30 SSW LAR 15 NW DEN 10 SW TAD 30 NW CNM 15 ENE FST 55 WSW JCT 25 WSW AUS 55 NE CLL GLH 40 N MSL 45 ESE LOZ 15 NE PIT 30 NW ROC ...CONT... 10 N EFK 15 NNW LCI 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 20 SW DAB 35 NW AGR 40 SW AGR 35 ENE FMY 15 NNE PBI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...ERN PA SWD TO CENTRAL NC... DEEP WLY FLOW /GENERALLY ABOVE 1 KM/ WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/ SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES NEWD INTO QUEBEC THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY TO WRN PA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF VA/NC. FULL SUN OVER NC TO SRN DELMARVA HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. MORE CLOUDS NWD ACROSS PA HAS LIMITED AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...MODERATE WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VA/NC ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS AND EVENTUALLY WITH COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE SAME AIR MASS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ...S TX... COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS DEEP S TX. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG/ ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN TX IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO FRONTAL FORCING AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY. ..PETERS.. 10/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 00:37:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 02 Oct 2004 19:37:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410030038.i930cut09088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030036 SWODY1 SPC AC 030035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E DUG 15 E SOW 50 NE FLG 50 ESE SGU 35 NNW LAS 25 NNW NID 40 SE FAT 50 ENE SCK 40 SW SVE 45 N OWY 35 ESE IDA 15 SSE RKS 30 S LAR 30 NE DEN 45 NE CAO 40 NW CNM 40 SW FST 25 WSW HDO 25 SE SAT 40 N HOU 40 E MLU 15 SSE MSL 30 NE TRI 20 ENE AOO 20 SW ART ...CONT... 35 ENE EFK 20 SSE MWN 25 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 15 SE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE JAX 55 SSE CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NJ SWD ACROSS ERN NC... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SWWD ACROSS WV TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG FRONT OVER ERN PA...AS WELL AS ALONG AND E OF TROUGH IN LEE OF CNTRL APPALACHIANS FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD INTO ERN NC. NRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SERN VA/ERN NC ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO A SECONDARY...WEAKER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ OBSERVED ON 00Z WAL SOUNDING...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED TSTMS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING WILL BE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FROM NJ SWD INTO ERN NC. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS IN THE 6-7 KM /AS OBSERVED IN 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z...IN ADDITION TO A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 12:46:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 07:46:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410031247.i93Clxt28297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031245 SWODY1 SPC AC 031243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 25 NNW SVC 60 W ONM 20 NNE ONM 30 ESE 4CR 40 NE CNM 35 SE CNM 55 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 WSW BFF 10 ENE LHX 40 N EHA 30 SE DDC 55 WSW TUL 40 SSW ADM 35 S BWD 20 NW AUS 40 NNW BPT 25 W LFT 35 NE MOB 50 E CHA DAN 20 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND ADJACENT W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... TWO MID-LEVEL FEATURES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM JET -- ONE MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREATS ACROSS ERN AZ / THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF NM / W TX AND SERN GA / SC / SRN NC RESPECTIVELY. ...ERN AZ / CENTRAL AND SRN NM / W TX... SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ATTM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AND APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS -- ONE OVER NERN AZ / NWRN NM AND THE OTHER ACROSS SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX. MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MODESTLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS YIELDS MEAN-LAYER CAPE MAINLY AOB 1000 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW / 40 TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM INTO FAR W TX...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS -- IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- IS ANTICIPATED. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN GA / MUCH OF SC / S CENTRAL AND SERN NC... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NERN GA...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD / SEWD ACROSS ERN GA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...MODERATE WLY FLOW THOUGH A DEEP LAYER SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER / MORE ORGANIZED STORMS -- PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 16:31:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 11:31:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410031632.i93GWXt10989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031630 SWODY1 SPC AC 031628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DMN 30 NNW SVC 55 W ONM 20 NNE ONM 35 ESE 4CR 40 NE CNM 35 SE CNM 55 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL 10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 30 NE HEZ 20 ESE 0A8 50 E CHA 15 ENE DAN ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN NM AND SWRN TX... ...SRN/ERN NM AND SWRN TX... LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN TX/SRN NM INTO E-CENTRAL NM. THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SWRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM ELP YIELDS SBCAPE AROUND 2200 J/KG...WITH FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING MORE THAN ADEQUATE. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NM. OTHER...MORE ISOLATED...STORMS MAY FORM INTO E-CENTRAL NM/NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES...EXPECT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AS STORMS MOVE E-SEWD AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATE IN ONE OR TWO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTH TX PLAINS. ...SRN ATLANTIC... RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITHIN WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF SC AND SERN GA...WHILE SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINS A THREAT OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 20:12:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 15:12:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410032013.i93KDot26102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032007 SWODY1 SPC AC 032005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SSW AGS 10 E AGS 10 ESE CAE 30 WNW FLO 10 NE FLO 20 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL 10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 25 NW MGM 35 SSE AHN 45 S CLT 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SC AND A PORTION OF ERN GA... ...ERN SC/PORTION OF ERN GA... REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL GA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NC...AS FORCING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SC IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER ASCENT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FROM ERN SC INTO PARTS OF ERN GA. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT DEEP WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ...SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NM...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/COOL AIR MASS HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX INTO SERN NM... LIMITING DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER WEST HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SWRN TX NWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NM WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MID-50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RETURNED NEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ALONG A LEE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG/. FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AS CURRENT STORMS OVER NRN/NERN NM MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FARTHER SWWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX AND THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THE LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS UPPER FORCING IS WEAKER OVER THIS AREA. THUS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED OVER SRN NM/FAR SWRN TX ALLOWING FOR LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN TX WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING NWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AS A WAA REGIME INCREASES ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ. ..PETERS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 3 22:07:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 17:07:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410032208.i93M8ft02911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032206 SWODY1 SPC AC 032204 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 032200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SAV 50 SSW AGS 10 E AGS 10 ESE CAE 30 WNW FLO 10 NE FLO 20 NE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE 4CR 40 SSE LVS 40 NW TCC 20 NW DHT 45 SSE EHA 65 NNE AMA 15 NNE AMA 10 ENE CVS 50 WSW CVS 30 SSE 4CR 15 ENE 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE ORL 70 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DUG 55 E PHX 65 NW TPH 35 S TVL 20 E RBL 55 ESE EKA 20 S MFR 55 NNW OWY 30 WSW SUN 35 E DLN 50 NW COD 40 NE CYS 45 E LIC 50 NW GCK 40 E DDC 50 SW TUL 10 ENE DUA 20 SE DAL 45 E ACT 40 NNW POE 25 NW MGM 35 SSE AHN 45 S CLT 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SC AND A PORTION OF ERN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... AMENDED FOR AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE ...PARTS OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NM...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS/COOL AIR MASS HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX INTO SERN NM... LIMITING DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER WEST HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM FAR SWRN TX NWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NM WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. MID-50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RETURNED NEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES ALONG A LEE TROUGH...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG/. FORCING WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST OVER NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN 40-55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER SOUTH...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN TX WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY SPREADING NWD TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AS A WAA REGIME INCREASES ALONG A STRENGTHENING LLJ. ...20Z DISCUSSION FOR SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES... REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL GA TO SOUTH CENTRAL NC...AS FORCING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SC IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER ASCENT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FROM ERN SC INTO PARTS OF ERN GA. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT DEEP WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 10/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 00:28:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 03 Oct 2004 19:28:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410040030.i940U4t19086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040028 SWODY1 SPC AC 040026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ELP 25 SW ONM 20 ESE CDC 40 SSE NFL 25 SSE RBL 15 E EKA 10 SSW MFR 55 WNW OWY 25 NE BYI 15 ESE MQM 30 W COD 40 NE CYS 45 ESE LIC 45 NW GCK 15 WNW SLN 30 ENE HUT 40 WSW OKC 40 SSE DAL 45 NW LFK 20 W ESF 30 NNE CEW 35 NNW AYS 10 SE GSP 20 WSW GSO 25 NE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NM/TX PNHDL... SCATTERED TSTMS /SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM SE OF DHT TO NE OF 4CR. THESE STORMS INITIATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM AND WITHIN AIR MASS THAT HAD WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE EVIDENT ON 00Z AMA SOUNDING...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STORM MOVEMENT TOWARD PERSISTENT STATUS DECK FROM E-CNTRL NM EWD ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO ONGOING STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PRIOR TO THIS...MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL. ..MEAD.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 12:55:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 07:55:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410041256.i94Cumt16717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041254 SWODY1 SPC AC 041252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ELP 30 ESE TCS 30 SE ABQ 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 75 NW ABI 40 SSW ABI 50 S SJT 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PFN 30 S AYS 40 E CAE 55 NNE RWI WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 55 E SOW 55 WNW GUP 35 WSW PGA 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 40 NE LIC 25 SSE DDC 40 NE MKO 40 E PBF 30 W LUL 10 ESE GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AHEAD OF STRONG /1030 MB/ CANADIAN HIGH. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC / GULF COASTS. MEANWHILE...WEAKER SRN STREAM JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN PLAINS. WITH COMBINATION OF MODEST MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SAGGING SWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT CONVECTIVE THREAT TO PERSIST. ...PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX... SCATTERED / ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION ATTM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SLOW SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON -- IN ZONE OF FRONTAL LIFTING ACROSS WRN / CENTRAL TX AS WELL AS WITHIN BROAD ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO EVOLVE N OF FRONT. WITH 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE LOW-LEVEL ELY COMPONENT...CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME LIKELY SUPPORTS CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 16:17:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 11:17:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410041618.i94GIht02091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041615 SWODY1 SPC AC 041614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE ELP 15 SSW ALM 30 W 4CR 45 SSE SAF 10 NW TCC 75 NW ABI 30 SSE SJT 20 W HDO 25 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 30 S AYS 55 N SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 35 E DUG 50 E SOW 20 NE INW 50 S SGU 35 SSE NFL 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 30 S AKO 50 NW GCK 45 E DDC 35 W CNU 20 SSW JLN 50 E FSM 30 ENE PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. WITH LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEAK SRN BRANCH WITH ZONAL TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN TIER. MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TX. MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME WRN NY/NERN OH SWWD INTO SERN MO...THEN CONTINUED AS A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN NM. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF TX ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT IS MOVING SWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF E CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX. ...S CENTRAL INTO SERN TX... MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM/W TX ESEWD POSSIBLY INTO SERN TX. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWD FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN TX WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. PRIND THAT CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SEWD/SWD INTO MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS ENHANCED BY SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS S TX WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE UVVS S OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN PLAINS OF SERN NM AND W TX... SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN SD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO IL BY 05/12Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS W TX AND SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INTO THE REGION. SOME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR OVER THIS REGION WITH SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KT DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AFTERNOON PROFILES WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THUS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO OCCUR NEAR THE SSE-NNW SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SW TX INTO SERN NM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 4 20:08:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 15:08:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410042010.i94KAMt08727@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042004 SWODY1 SPC AC 042002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 10 W TCS 30 NNE ONM 45 N 4CR 65 NE 4CR 15 NNE INK 60 E FST 50 NW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 40 NNW BPT 10 ENE POE 45 NW LFT 15 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 E SOW 20 NE INW 45 NNE DRA 45 SW BIH 25 E SCK 20 WNW RBL 10 NNE MFR 50 SE BNO 55 SW 27U 40 SSW BZN 30 NNW SHR 35 WSW BFF 30 S AKO 50 NW GCK 45 E DDC 35 W CNU 20 SSW JLN 50 E FSM 30 ENE PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN TX AND SWRN LA... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS RESIDES IN WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...BOTH BEHIND DEPARTING DISTURBANCE ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A LATER START TO HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NM AND W TX...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST. STRONGEST HEATING WILL EXIST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM AND FAR SW TX. BUILD-UPS ON THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE OVER SRN AZ. THIS WILL BE MOVING EWD AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING TSTMS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER EAST...THE SITUATION IS NOT AS CERTAIN OWING TO CLOUD COVER...MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE PRESENT. THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE S PLAINS OF W TX. ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES...BUT THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LOWER THAN FARTHER WEST. OVERNIGHT...TSTM CLUSTERS...LARGELY ELEVATED...MAY EXPAND EWD AND SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN TX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...ERN TX AND SWRN LA... MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER SABINE RVR VLY AT MID-AFTERNOON WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD INTO CNTRL TX. AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TSTM COMPLEX REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. INFLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED TO THE COAST. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL/N TX... TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE. MOST OF THE TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EWD...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM DOWNSTREAM MCS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK. THUS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY...BUT ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE. ..RACY.. 10/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 00:46:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 19:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410050047.i950lWt09714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050045 SWODY1 SPC AC 050043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DMN 15 WNW TCS 35 N ONM 55 SSW LVS 40 ESE CVS 30 WSW LBB 30 SE INK 70 WNW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 45 SE SOW 20 NE INW 45 NNE DRA 45 SW BIH 25 E SCK 35 E EKA 30 S MFR 90 WNW OWY 30 NNE TWF 30 N JAC 35 SE SHR 40 SSW RAP 25 NE AKO 25 SSW LAA 25 WNW GAG 30 N OKC 15 S MKO 25 NNW HOT PBF 15 SE LUL 20 E GPT ...CONT... 45 SSE CTY 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND WRN TX... ...NM/WRN TX... TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND THE TX S PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR /PER 00Z MAF SOUNDING/. IT APPEARS THAT CAP OBSERVED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER MAY BE SLOWING PARCEL ACCELERATIONS AND OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH OF ONGOING STORMS. ELSEWHERE...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS NM AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DESPITE COOLING AND DE-COUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER....PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 12:34:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 07:34:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410051235.i95CZUt09853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051233 SWODY1 SPC AC 051231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW DMN 40 E SAD 65 SW GNT 35 W ABQ 55 SSW LVS 20 WSW CVS 50 SSW LBB 70 WSW SJT 35 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW DUG 30 NNW SAD 55 WSW GUP 25 SE GCN 40 S SGU 35 WSW MLF 40 SSW DPG 35 SW MLD 35 NNE JAC 40 WSW WRL 35 N RWL 45 NE LAR 40 ENE SNY 35 N RSL 30 NW END 55 NNE ADM 40 WSW TXK 35 NNE ESF 40 SW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CEW 10 NE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM INTO PORTIONS OF W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONGER FLOW REMAINING INVOF THE U.S. / MEXICO BORDER FROM SRN CA EWD TO W TX. AT THE SURFACE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS CENTRAL NM / THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN OK. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY SELY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH. ALTHOUGH FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BECOME LESS IMPORTANT WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVV FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN ROCKIES / SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF NM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX... LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS VORT MAX IS FOCUSED ACROSS NM ATTM...WHERE PERSISTENT / STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING. WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ AND A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TX...IT APPEARS THAT MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NM AND INTO W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS VIGOROUS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT / WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED/. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NM SEWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX...WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. RESULTING THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 16:14:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 11:14:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410051615.i95GFxt32223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051611 SWODY1 SPC AC 051610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 NNE SVC 35 SSE GNT 30 E 4SL 40 NNE LVS 20 S CAO 10 WSW PVW 15 S BGS 30 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 30 NW SVC 55 E SOW 30 SW GCN 45 ESE U31 BAM 40 ENE OWY 40 SSW WEY 15 NNW COD 30 NNW GCC 15 NNE RAP 15 SSE MHN 50 N DDC 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 15 W CTY 25 WNW JAX 35 NW SAV 15 NNW AHN 25 SSW HSS 35 SE TRI 35 S GSO 20 NE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND W TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY IS DRAGGING BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S. AS NEXT STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW AND SWRN CANADA. ATTENTION WILL BE WITH ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL CO BY 06/12Z TAKING ONE SHORTWAVE EWD ACROSS NM INTO KS AND BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH SWWD ACROSS AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO S CENTRAL NM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO EXTREME W TX... MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATED STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER PARTS OF NM AS WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 60-80 KT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS SRN AZ. CURRENTLY...SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE LAYING OUT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WWD/NWWD INTO CENTRAL NM. MORNING MODEL DATA INDICATES 45-55 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND NEWD FROM SERN AZ INTO E CENTRAL NM COUPLING WITH SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KT THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH ETA AND ETAKF TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING TO 30-35 KT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/0-3 KM HELICITY TO 35-45 KT AND 300 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM INTO AT LEAST SERN CO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FEATURE EXTENDING N-S ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SERN CO AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD INTO NERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COULD BRING SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF ERN NM INTO EXTREME W TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO THE SERN QUARTER OF CO TODAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WERE NEARLY A DOZEN REPORTS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE YESTERDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MANAGED TO ENHANCE THE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION RESULTING IN ENHANCED ROTATION IN SOME OF THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY. TODAY...HAVING THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING INTO CENTRAL CO...WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS PROVIDING THERE IS SUFFICIENT HEATING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE MOVED LOW PROBABILITIES NWD FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THAT EXPECTED HEATING COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE HORIZONTAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ..MCCARTHY.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 5 19:53:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 14:53:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410051955.i95JtBt31609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051952 SWODY1 SPC AC 051950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 10 NW TCS 40 W ONM 30 SE GNT 25 E GNT 50 NNE SAF 40 NNE LVS 45 W AMA 15 E PVW 15 SSW MAF 70 S MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 55 ENE SAD 40 W GUP 55 WNW GCN 45 ESE U31 BAM 40 ENE OWY 40 SSW WEY 15 NNW COD 30 NNW GCC 15 NNE RAP 15 SSE MHN 50 N DDC 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS ...CONT... 15 W CTY 25 WNW JAX 35 NW SAV 15 NNW AHN 25 SSW HSS 35 SE TRI 35 S GSO 20 NE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... 18Z ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN NM THROUGH THE KABQ AREA THEN SEWD TO NORTH OF KMAF. SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 50-60F HAVE BEEN ADVECTING NWWD FROM W TX INTO CNTRL NM TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 METERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NM INTO W TX TONIGHT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/SW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL NM...THEN MOVE NEWD ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE OVER NERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS SRN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OF 45-50 KTS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW WILL AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS EVIDENCED ALREADY IN THE KABQ VCNTY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT WITH THE MORE SURFACE BASED CELLS OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL NM. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY AS CELLS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND APPROACH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM KABQ TO KROW. THE SELY H95-H85 JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SWRN TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TSTMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. ONE MCS...LARGELY ELEVATED...WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX PNHDL WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLD HAIL RISK. ANOTHER MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM CNTRL/SRN NM AND MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W/SWRN TX. HERE...ALONG WITH A HAIL RISK...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS SELY MOIST INFLOW AIDS IN FORWARD PROPAGATION. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ...DEEP S TX... TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A FRONT WHERE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...MORNING/RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PARCELS IN THE H85-H5 LAYER ARE LESS MOIST THAN NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS...PULSE SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. ..RACY.. 10/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 00:17:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 05 Oct 2004 19:17:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410060018.i960IXt26700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060016 SWODY1 SPC AC 060014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE ELP 25 NW ALM 45 N ALM 55 ENE 4CR 10 W CVS 45 W PVW 10 W LBB 45 SSE LBB 55 SE MAF 20 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH 20 NNE SSI ...CONT... 55 ESE DUG 55 ENE SAD 40 NNW INW 35 ESE SGU 25 WSW MLF 35 W DPG 30 WSW MLD JAC 30 SSW WRL 50 NE CPR 45 NW CDR 20 E MHN 30 SSE RSL 10 SSW OKC 20 NNE PRX 40 N HEZ 30 WSW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND SWRN TX... ...SERN NM/SWRN TX... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER ERN NM INTO SWRN TX AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NM AND SRN CO. THE STRONGEST STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ARE OCCURRING FROM VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW N OF ELP TO ALONG AND JUST N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING SEWD TO N OF INK AND S OF MAF. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE AREA IS RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE MAF/INK AREAS WWD TO CNM/ROW WHERE 0-1 KM SRH HAS INCREASED TO 150-200 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ PRESENT ACROSS SWRN TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS TONIGHT ALONG DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION...PERMIAN BASIN AND TX S PLAINS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG/S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL MAY EXTEND FARTHER N IN ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 12:37:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 07:37:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410061238.i96Cckt10086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061235 SWODY1 SPC AC 061233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ELP 40 NNE ALM 45 NNE 4CR 20 NE LVS 10 E CAO 60 NE AMA 10 WNW CDS 50 WSW ABI 20 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE DUG 60 SSW GNT 15 SW GCN 30 E U24 30 SE EVW 40 ESE WRL 10 SSW BKX 25 NE FOD 30 ENE LWD 25 SSE P35 10 NW SZL 20 NW SGF 30 NNW FSM 35 ENE TXK 15 W JAN 25 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N PIE 35 WNW ORL 35 NNW DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM / W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES / WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...WITH MODEST /25 TO 35 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET PERSISTING IN A CYCLONIC ARC FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...WITH BROAD AREA OF SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF LEE TROUGH / W OF ERN U.S. SURFACE HIGH. ...ERN NM / W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS... UPPER VORT MAX NOW ALONG AZ / UT BORDER -- WITHIN LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH -- IS MOVING SEWD ATTM AND SHOULD CURVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. AS ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT E OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SELY WITH TIME ALLOWING A NWWD RETURN OF MODEST MOISTURE. DAYTIME HEATING OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW / CONVERGENCE NEAR LEE TROUGH ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE...LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE ENEWD-MOVING MCSS. THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH OK / WRN N TX OVERNIGHT...DRIER / LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...PARTS OF ERN CO / WRN KS... WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FORCING / UVV ARE ANTICIPATED NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN CO / WRN KS. HOWEVER LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING INVOF LEE TROUGH BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW / VORT MAX SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 16:11:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 11:11:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410061612.i96GCYt30567@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061608 SWODY1 SPC AC 061606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 35 E ALM 25 ENE 4CR 35 WSW TCC 35 NW PVW 55 ESE LBB 30 SW ABI 20 SSE JCT LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DMN 30 WSW TCS 30 SSE INW 40 NNW 4HV 40 NNW VEL 30 W CPR 60 WNW CDR 35 S 9V9 25 ENE SUX 30 SSE DSM 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 20 ESE JAN 40 SE MOB ...CONT... 35 N PIE 15 SSE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N 3DU 60 NNW 27U 55 E BKE 45 NW BNO 45 NE RDM 35 SSW EPH 65 NNW 3TH 65 N 3DU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX.... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN CO SWWD THROUGH SERN AZ. MEANWHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS NWWD OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. LARGE SURFACE RIDGING SPREADS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD AND NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM ERN CO SWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...PARTS OF EXTREME W TX AND SERN NM... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY ACROSS SRN NM INTO W TX HAVE LEFT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING ACROSS S CENTRAL TX WWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS 50-60 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO INTO W TX THEN TURNING NWD ALONG BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OK. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET MIRROR THE MID LEVEL JET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK JET STREAK OF 40-50 KTS AT 250 MB THAT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND S CENTRAL TX INDICATING DIVERGENCE AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED UVVS THIS AFTERNOON IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK. MCS THAT AFFECTED THIS REGION WORKED OVER THE AIR MASS PRETTY WELL AS MUCH OF THE MODEL INSTABILITY FOR TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX. SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 1500-2500 J/KG FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX NWD INTO W CENTRAL TX AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE REGION. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AND THE RIO GRANDE AREA AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 6 19:49:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 14:49:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410061950.i96Jolt24656@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061947 SWODY1 SPC AC 061946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 45 E ALM 40 WNW ROW 30 SW CVS 15 WNW LBB 45 NNE BGS 40 SE BGS 70 SW SJT 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PIE 15 SSE DAB ...CONT... 30 SE DMN 30 WSW TCS 30 SSE INW 40 NNW 4HV 40 NW VEL 30 WNW CPR 15 NNW 81V 35 NE RAP 35 SSE 9V9 25 ENE SUX 30 SSE DSM 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 20 ESE JAN 40 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N 3DU 60 NNW 27U 55 E BKE 45 NW BNO 45 NE RDM 35 SSW EPH 65 NNW 3TH 65 N 3DU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN PLAINS... LEAD IMPULSE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LAST NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...LEAVING MOST OF W TX AND ERN NM IN SUBSIDENCE. DOWNWARD MOTION...INCREASED CAP AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS STILL INDICATE THAT THE BODY OF THE TROUGH WAS HANGING BACK OVER WRN NM WITH A VERY WEAK IMPULSE OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THUS...THE LARGE SCALE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN SUPPORTING CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS SERN NM AND FAR SW TX. COMBINATION OF HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOIST SELY FLOW AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE UVV WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER YESTERDAY...VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS AUGMENTING VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...AS STORMS FORM...POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL EXIST AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SERN NM AND FAR W TX. TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH W TX OVERNIGHT. THE LLJ...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...SUGGESTING A WEAKER WARM ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS FARTHER FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THUS...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS EVENINGS...THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME AND AT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 10/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 00:52:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 06 Oct 2004 19:52:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410070053.i970rkt00811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070052 SWODY1 SPC AC 070050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DMN 45 N SVC 30 SSE INW 25 N 4HV 45 NNW VEL 15 SSE CPR 40 E 81V 40 NNE PHP 45 S PIR 30 S MHN 35 E MCK 25 WNW CNK 50 ESE OMA 40 NE P35 35 SE SZL 20 WSW HRO 40 NNW ELD 40 ENE HEZ 40 SE MOB ...CONT... 25 SE SRQ 15 SE VRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST TX... UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AS STRONGEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE FROM SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL KS. DESPITE THE APPROACHING TROUGH...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ACROSS TX IS WEAK WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND NRN MEXICO. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SPREAD ATOP MUCH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WEDGED IN ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...WWD TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM MAF SUPPORTS THIS WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP OBSERVED AROUND 780MB. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TX WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION EARLY...OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE APPEARS RATHER LOW THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 05:15:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 00:15:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410070517.i975H7t04152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070515 SWODY1 SPC AC 070513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 10 NNE PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ELP 25 S CAO OTG 25 SSE LSE PIA 35 NNE UNO 55 N LIT 25 SW GLH 30 ESE GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS CENTRAL TX AS WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ELY COMPONENT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A SHARPENING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS AXIS OF EXPECTED CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 1000J/KG WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT. SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT PARAMETERS APPEAR TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ...UPPER TX COAST/LA COAST... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN BUT SHOULD LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER TX COAST/LA COAST SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY STREAM INLAND MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR DO NOT FAVOR MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DARROW/BOTHWELL.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 12:44:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 07:44:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410071246.i97Ck2t02991@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071244 SWODY1 SPC AC 071242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S SRQ 10 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 45 ESE LVS 40 SW MCK 10 NNE STC 35 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW APN AZO 40 W EVV 55 SW JBR 25 SSW GLH 30 E GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...WITH A LARGE ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD AS FAR AS THE GREAT LAKES BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. LIMITED INSTABILITY / SHEAR OVER THE SRN PLAINS MAY SUPPORT A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT...BUT ELSEWHERE LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...FAR SERN NM INTO PARTS OF W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION... ORGANIZED BUT SUB-SEVERE ARC OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE SSEWD INTO WRN N TX WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD / NEWD ACROSS TX / OK THIS MORNING / AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX AS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMMENCES AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...ONLY LIMITED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SERN NM INTO W TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION -- BEHIND EWD-MOVING MCS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY MAINTAINED NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BENEATH 30 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS NEAR BASE OF MAIN TROUGH. ASSUMING MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AND STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-PROBABILITY HAIL / WIND THREAT...MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND MAY ALSO EVOLVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK / N TX. MINIMAL HEATING OF AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...SUPPORTING SOME INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE NOW W OF THE DFW METROPLEX. FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WITH STORMS REACHING SERN OK / NERN TX BY MID AFTERNOON. ...LA / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH NRN EXTENT OF LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE / THE WRN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD ACROSS LA TODAY. THIS NWD ADVANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY AN INCREASE IN QG FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY SHEARED / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF / ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 16:27:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 11:27:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410071628.i97GSit23588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071626 SWODY1 SPC AC 071624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 50 W ROW 60 WSW TCC 35 E MCK 20 W BKX 40 ESE INL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES PERSIST OVER THE GRT BASIN AND ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE COMPOSED OF SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PER STLT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK FROM NE NM INTO NW OK BY EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER S...THE PATTERN IS LESS CLEAR...ALTHOUGH LONG LOOPS SHOW PRESENCE OF A WEAK IMPULSE APPROACHING THE TX BIG BEND. ...SE NM INTO SW/S CNTRL TX... UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SE NM/SW TX TODAY IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL ACROSS REGION /BETWEEN MINUS 10 AND MINUS 12 C AT 500 MB/...SO EXPECT MLCAPE TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS FROM SE NM INTO THE TRANS PECOS/GREAT BEND REGION OF S CNTRL AND SW TX. WITH 25-30 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ALONG SRN FRINGE OF MAIN TROUGH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL. WEAK FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD... HOWEVER...LIMIT OVERALL SEVERITY ...N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL/SE OK... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE RED RIVER VLY REGION OF TX/OK TODAY BETWEEN /1/ LEE TROUGH IN THE PANHANDLES AND /2/ INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM FARTHER S AND E. AT UPPER LEVELS...INFLUENCE OF IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD PASS N AND W OF REGION. AS A RESULT...LOCAL AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF N TX AND SRN OK LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DISSIPATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EDGING EWD FROM NW TX...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE DIURNAL STORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SE TX/SRN LA... SURFACE HEATING MAY INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE TX LATER TODAY...ALONG NRN FRINGE OF DISTURBED WEATHER/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/WRN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY...AND/OR ADDITIONAL STORMS...SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX AND LA TODAY. MARGINAL DEGREE OF DEEP INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK /20 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM INTENSITY. BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 7 19:57:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 14:57:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410071958.i97Jwdt05076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071956 SWODY1 SPC AC 071954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 50 W ROW 60 WSW TCC 35 E MCK 20 W BKX 40 ESE INL ...CONT... 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN NM/SWRN-S TX... IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IDENTIFIABLE LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES...TSTM INITIATION WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY HEATING/ LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SERN NM/SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL EDGE EWD FROM CNTRL NM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE RELAXED THAN IN RECENT DAYS...SO DESPITE VEERING IN THE COLUMN...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...MAINLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS ISOLD HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO THE TERRAIN. ...TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK... AREA WOULD SEEMINGLY BE IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE OVER NRN OK...BUT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW CORE OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL ROTATING INTO THE KAMA AREA. VSBL PICTURES SHOW MDT CU DEVELOPING VCNTY KAMA AND SBCAPES HAVE RECOVERED TO BETWEEN 500-750 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD AND HEATING CONTINUES...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP. TIME SERIES OF THE KAMA VWP SHOWS THAT THE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKENING AS LEAD IMPULSE MOVES FARTHER AWAY. THUS...MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL PROBABLY BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE WITH ISOLD HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ...ARKLATEX NWD TO ERN OK... WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. STRONGER TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FAVORING AREAS FROM NERN OK/SERN KS SWD TO NCNTRL TX...ALONG THE TAIL END OF AN IMPULSE MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN OK ATTM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS EJECTED FROM EARLIER WRN OK TSTM COMPLEX MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL PLUME ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. HERE... POCKETS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUN HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. GLANCING EFFECTS OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MAY AUGMENT THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLD MINI-SUPERCELL ANYWHERE IN ERN OK SWD TO THE ARKLATEX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND BE LARGELY DIURNAL. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO SRN LA... DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN ARCS AND PROPAGATING NWWD FROM THE WATER INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. STRONGEST TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY. 18Z RUC AGREES WITH 09Z ENSEMBLES...MAINTAINING WEAKER LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR THAN THE 12Z ETA SUGGESTS. NONETHELESS... GIVEN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 00:22:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 07 Oct 2004 19:22:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410080023.i980NZt28129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080021 SWODY1 SPC AC 080019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W MIA 10 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP 40 WSW ROW 35 ESE TCC 50 SSE DDC 10 SSW BIE 10 SW SUX 15 W MSP 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 35 SE OSC 15 W FWA 25 ENE MDH 55 ENE LIT 45 WNW JAN 30 E GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 25 NE COT 40 NW TPL 15 N BWD SJT 50 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING DEEPER CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER TX COAST...NWD ACROSS AR INTO MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NEWD AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. 00Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DEEPER PLUME OF ASCENT REFLECT A VERY MOIST PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND...OR TORNADOES THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 05:18:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 00:18:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410080519.i985JUt03705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080517 SWODY1 SPC AC 080515 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 10 N INK 70 S CDS 25 NE LTS 30 SSW PNC 55 NNE SZL 35 ENE DBQ 20 NNE MSN 20 NW IMT 60 NNE CMX ...CONT... 20 NW ROC 20 NE JHW 25 N YNG 30 WNW MFD 10 E HUF 25 W MVN 25 N POF 30 WNW ARG 60 N LIT PBF 20 N JAN 45 SE MEI 10 ENE CEW 20 ESE PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NWRN GULF COAST... SRN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED FROM STRONGER WLY FLOW SUCH THAT A SLOW EVOLUTION TOWARD A CLOSED CIRCULATION MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...NWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACTING ON A DEEPLY SATURATED AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OR SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMIZED. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 70F...WILL HOLD FROM PORTIONS OF SRN LA INTO THE NRN GULF. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO AS WEAK SFC LOW APPROACHES THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW/BOTHWELL.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 12:34:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 07:34:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410081235.i98CZPt13348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081233 SWODY1 SPC AC 081231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 25 NNW INK 65 SSW CDS 10 SE CSM 20 NW PNC 35 SSW P35 DBQ 35 ESE VOK 15 N IMT 70 ENE CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW ...CONT... 20 NNW BLI 15 NNE OLM SLE 45 SE EUG 45 NE MFR 15 SE LMT 40 NNE RBL 50 NW RBL 25 SSW EKA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE FLOW REGIME OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD. A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NRN STREAM...ONE MOVING ASHORE OVER BC...THE OTHER DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WILL SPREAD STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. SRN SEGMENT OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE WRN STATES WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE CNTRL U.S. TROUGHS...AN EXTENSIVE AND DEEP BELT OF CONFLUENT SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. ...LA GULF COAST... STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING GULF LOW. THIS WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NCNTRL GULF COAST REGION...FROM THE SABINE RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. ETA IS INDICATING THAT BAND OF ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM SERN LA INTO SRN AR THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN WITHIN THIS AXIS...AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT AND INTENSIFY WITH TIME RESULTING IN INCREASING 0-1KM SRH ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST AIRMASS COUPLED STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN LA. ...WEST TX... RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE TRANPECOS/BIG BEND REGIONS BENEATH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AIDED BY DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 16:32:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 11:32:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410081633.i98GXct03964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081630 SWODY1 SPC AC 081628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 25 NNW INK 65 SSW CDS 10 SE CSM 20 NW PNC 35 SSW P35 15 N CID 35 SSE LSE 15 SSW EAU 35 N MSP 30 ENE BRD 15 E INL ...CONT... 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 50 ESE SLE 50 NNE MFR 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE NE PACIFIC CONTINUES E INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE CNTRL STATES TROUGH IS COMPOSED OF NUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW FEATURES IN NW MN AND NW KS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY AS THEY HEAD GENERALLY SEWD. FARTHER S...MORE DIFFUSE IMPULSE NOW NEARING THE TX BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE E IN SRN TX LATER TODAY. IN THE GULF...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL PERSIST S OF LA. WHILE THE ETA SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ASHORE NEAR LFT BY 12Z SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE PRESSURE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MAIN LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...TX BIG BEND... A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SW TX AND THE TX BIG BEND...WHERE AN AXIS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...WELL AHEAD OF COOL SURGE DROPPING S ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE STATE. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE LOW 60S AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C...HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. ...SRN LA/SE TX... WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM OFFSHORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN/ EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE NWRN GULF CST REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH TIME...TRUE MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SRN LA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE TX...WHERE LOW LEVEL FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ...UPR MS VLY... STRONG UVV AHEAD OF IMPULSE NOW IN NW MN MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS OVER PARTS OF WI/UPR MI AND PERHAPS NE MN LATER TODAY. ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 8 19:45:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 14:45:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410081946.i98JkRt04634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081944 SWODY1 SPC AC 081942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ERI 20 ENE CLE 25 NNW DAY 30 ESE MVN 10 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW ...CONT... 50 SE ELP 30 NE CNM 40 S LBB 60 SSW CDS 20 NE ADM 45 WNW FYV 15 SSE UIN 35 ENE DBQ 15 SW VOK EAU 35 N MSP 30 ENE BRD 15 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 25 SE SEA 50 ESE SLE 50 NNE MFR 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN TX... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING ACROSS SWRN TX/EXTREME SERN NM. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THREE MAIN ZONES OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT. ONE IS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG/W OF THE ANTELOPE RIDGE IN LEA COUNTY NM. THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE KERMIT/WINK AND PECOS REGIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER SWRN TX TERRAIN AND...IN PARTICULAR...THE PEAKS SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 90 WHERE MLCAPE HAS RISEN TO 1500-2000 J/KG. A THIRD ZONE OF INITIATION WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS RATHER WEAK /LESS THAN 20 KTS/ AND...CONSEQUENTLY...MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE ANTICIPATED. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN LA... INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NWD ONTO THE UPPER TX COAST FROM TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL SOUTH OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN. EAST OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE NEWD INTO MAINLY SRN LA THROUGH THE NIGHT. INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED TSTMS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IN SRN LA...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT. ..RACY.. 10/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 00:35:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 08 Oct 2004 19:35:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410090036.i990aLt20436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090033 SWODY1 SPC AC 090032 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS GGG 25 WSW MKO 40 E BVO 40 W TBN 40 ESE VIH 30 N POF 10 E ARG 50 SSW JBR 45 NNE GLH 40 NNE JAN 25 ENE LUL 55 NE MOB 35 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MTC 10 NW MKG 15 S GRB 30 NW ESC 85 NE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF 30 NNE INK 40 SE LBB 30 NW CDS 25 S GAG 45 NE CSM 45 SW ADM 15 ESE FTW 10 WSW ACT 50 NNW SAT 55 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN LA... EARLY THIS EVENING...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ACROSS SRN LA TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...PER 00Z LIX SOUNDING. THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...NWD INTO SERN AR. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE SATURATED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING THE PROSPECT FOR LIGHTNING MAY BE LIMITED. EVEN SO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...SWRN TX... ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND WITH TIME DISSIPATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD GENERALLY SSEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BEFORE WEAKENING. ...GREAT LAKES... STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE U.P. OF MI...SWD ACROSS NRN LAKE MI. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE NORTH OF CYCLONIC JET SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN LOWER MI AND ERN U.P. OF MI THIS EVENING. DESPITE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 07:08:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 02:08:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410090709.i9979It04950@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090703 SWODY1 SPC AC 090701 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE BLI 25 E PDX 20 SSE SLE 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BIH 60 SE TVL 10 NW RNO 40 W OWY 40 SSE TWF 45 WSW MLD 50 SW ENV 60 N BIH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BPT 45 ESE LFK 10 W LFK 20 NNW TPL 50 NE JCT 35 S JCT 35 W ALI 35 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF 50 NNE SAF 20 WSW EHA 35 SW ICT 25 NW JLN 35 SE HRO 50 NE LIT 25 SW HSV 25 SE RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NEWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE LA/MS COAST AS CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE COAST VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INHIBIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES INTO THIS REGION. HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CIRCULATION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...WRN U.S... APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL DIG SEWD INTO CA ALLOWING TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT DEVELOPS OVER NV MAY AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD ACROSS POST FRONTAL MARINE AIRMASS. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 12:29:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 07:29:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410091230.i99CUrt14318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091228 SWODY1 SPC AC 091227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MLB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 10 S BPT 45 ESE LFK 10 W LFK 20 NNW TPL 50 NE JCT 35 S JCT 35 W ALI 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF 35 WSW RTN 20 WSW EHA 45 ESE P28 30 NE MKO 50 NNE LIT 10 SSE DYR 45 NE MSL 20 NNW RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W OGD 25 SE ELY 35 W BIH 30 SSW TVL 20 W RNO 25 SSW WMC 30 SW OWY 40 ESE BOI 65 WSW 27U 45 N 27U 20 NNE BTM 35 NW 3HT 35 W BIL 25 NW MLD 45 W OGD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 10 NW OLM 30 W PDX 25 S EUG OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR 48 STATES TODAY WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN STATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM SPREADING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS A NUMBER OF DISPARATE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS TX/OK. A WEAK T.S. MATTHEW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NCNTRL GULF COAST WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM BECOMING WRAPPED INTO THE EVOLVING LARGER SCALE LOW ACROSS TX. DESPITE THE NUMBER OF SOURCES FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CONUS...TSTM COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY EITHER LACK OF MOISTURE OR WEAK LAPSE RATES. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST NWWD/INLAND TO PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS. ...LA/MS/AL GULF COAST... CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF T.S. MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGIONS OF LA/MS/AL THIS PERIOD. LATEST ETA BRINGS MATTHEW INLAND TO THE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS BY LATE THIS EVENING WHILE GFS...SREF...AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FCSTS SHOW A SLOWER NNEWD MOVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST WILL ALSO BE AREAS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND COULD PROMOTE ISOLD STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVOR KEEPING LOW PROBABILITIES FOR EITHER A BRIEF TORNADO OR A COUPLE OF TSTM INDUCED WIND GUSTS. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... LIMITED MOISTURE BUT STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AND LOW STATIC STABILITY...ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND PACIFIC FRONT MAY PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL...ESPECIALLY OVER MORE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TX/OK/AR... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AND LIFTED INTO LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE PULSE/MULTICELL IN NATURE. WHILE A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 9 16:17:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 11:17:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410091618.i99GIDt24929@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091608 SWODY1 SPC AC 091607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 25 WNW ALM 20 SSW SAF 35 WSW RTN 35 ENE RTN 30 E DDC 15 SW HUT 20 S CNU 20 W FYV 50 N LIT 15 NW MKL 45 NE MSL 20 NNW RMG 20 SSE AHN 40 SSE AGS 25 E SAV ...CONT... 15 SSE MLB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 35 SE LFK 65 NNE CLL 20 NNW TPL 55 NW AUS 25 NNW SAT 35 W ALI 30 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 10 NW OLM 30 W PDX 25 S EUG OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLF 50 W P38 45 E FAT 35 E SCK 30 W RNO 35 NE LOL 30 SW OWY 40 ESE BOI 65 WSW 27U 50 N 27U 35 NW 3HT 35 N BIL 10 NNE RIW 35 NW VEL 35 W MLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...W TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW INVOF LBB-AMA-TCC AS OF MID MORNING. THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SSWWD THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER...BEFORE GRADUALLY LOOPING SEWD THEN EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS W TX...12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PROFILES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14 TO -15 C...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...N CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SE LA COAST /SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS/. SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO AREAS NE-SE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THAT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS LARGELY OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NNEWD THERE WILL BE A GRADUALLY INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE SE LA AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 01:36:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 09 Oct 2004 20:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410100137.i9A1bnt30916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100048 SWODY1 SPC AC 100046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 35 SE LFK 65 NNE CLL 20 NNW TPL 55 NW AUS 25 NNW SAT 35 W ALI 30 WNW MFE ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 NE ELP 35 WSW 4CR 55 NNE SAF 30 W TAD 40 NW EHA 40 SSE DDC 10 NNE PNC 35 W FYV 20 S JBR 20 NE MSL 10 SE RMG AGS 20 SSW CHS ...CONT... 10 SE DAB 25 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLF 60 W P38 20 SSE BIH 40 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 15 W TVL 10 E RNO 15 SE WMC 60 WNW TWF 35 WNW 27U 25 SE 3DU 35 NE HLN 25 ENE 3HT 35 S BIL 10 NNE RIW 35 NW VEL 35 W MLF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN LA EWD TO SWRN AL... LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK OF TS MATTHEW BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INLAND ALONG THE LA COAST NEAR MORGAN CITY JUST AFTER 06Z. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PER LIX VAD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS MATTHEW MOVES CLOSER TO LAND. LOW LCLS AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL FAVOR A GREATER THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST...WITH EMBEDDED DISCRETE UPDRAFTS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN LA TO SWRN AL. ...WRN TX... COLD UPPER LOW /-16C AT 500 MB PER AMA 00Z SOUNDING/ LOCATED JUST S OF LBB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN TX OVERNIGHT. 30-35 KT NLY MID-LEVEL JET OVER ERN NM IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND INTO THE BASE OF THIS LOW BY 12Z SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES WLY. DESPITE THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 05:43:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 00:43:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410100544.i9A5int05422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100542 SWODY1 SPC AC 100541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 30 SSE LFK 50 SSW TYR SEP 50 N ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 55 SSE EHA 10 SSW LBL 35 E P28 35 WNW UNO 40 NW DYR HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS ...CONT... 10 E DAB 60 NE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD 55 ESE PRC 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 ESE U31 15 ESE SLC 15 ESE CAG 10 WSW COS 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES TODAY AS STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO CANADA. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN STATES TO BECOME CUT OFF AS IT TRACKS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SWRN STATES. MEANWHILE...CUT OFF LOW LOCATED OVER OK/TX/ERN NM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... T.S. MATTHEW IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE LA COAST /ERN TERREBONNE PARISH/ AT OR JUST AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES NWD TO WEST CENTRAL MS BY 12Z MONDAY. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TEND TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF MATTHEW AS IT MOVES INLAND TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF MATTHEW WILL...HOWEVER...FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED... THEN STRONGER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL AND POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 12:31:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 07:31:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410101232.i9ACWBt03408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101229 SWODY1 SPC AC 101228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW HUM 15 SW BTR 20 SSE MCB 30 NNE GPT 40 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 40 E LFK 50 SSW TYR 45 SE BWD 30 WSW ABI 30 E PVW 30 SSE AMA 45 NE AMA 20 N GAG 10 SSE TUL 60 SSW UNO 35 W DYR HSV 45 ENE MCN 15 S CHS ...CONT... 10 E DAB 60 NE EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S DUG 45 WNW SAD 55 ESE PRC 30 ESE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 W ELY 35 SSW EVW 20 SE CAG 45 E GUC 20 SSE RTN 20 WNW ROW 60 SE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LA AND MS/AL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN PLAINS...A WEAK AND COMPACT T.S. MATTHEW MOVING INTO SERN LA...AND A STRONG TROUGH PASSING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LA TODAY...AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ...LA/MS GULF COAST... DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SERN LA AND SWRN MS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF T.S. MATTHEW. SOME OF THIS INCREASE APPEARS DUE TO A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN TX/WRN LA. DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN LA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...A SMALL AREA OF STRONGER 0-3KM SRH COINCIDENT WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF MATTHEW CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER RAIN AREA. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SERN LA AND THE IMMEDIATE MS GULF COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MATTHEW MOVES INLAND. ...AZ/NM... STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN AZ AND WRN NM WILL DRIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...ISOLD SMALL HAIL OR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 16:33:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 11:33:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410101634.i9AGYat07741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101631 SWODY1 SPC AC 101630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 40 E LFK 50 SSW TYR 35 NE JCT 40 NW SJT 15 E LBB 30 SSE AMA 45 NE AMA 20 SSE GAG 50 WSW TUL 15 W MKO 10 SW FSM 25 NNE HOT 40 N GLH 35 ESE GWO 20 SSW 0A8 15 SE AUO 25 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 25 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 50 SE PHX 45 SSE PRC 35 SE IGM 45 NW EED 45 SSW DRA 55 S TPH 60 W ELY 35 SSW EVW 20 SE CAG 40 SE ASE 15 S RTN 20 SE CNM 45 SW MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW WILL DRIFT GENERALLY NWD TODAY ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS...TO THE E OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX. THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TODAY ACROSS SRN MS/AL...AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED OVER THE LA DELTA. HOWEVER...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PRONOUNCED COOL/STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE THICK CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TEND TO COUNTER DESTABILIZATION INLAND FROM THE COAST. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT E OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT WEAK INLAND INSTABILITY IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH E TO CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW NEWD MOTION OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NW TX. GRADUAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING FROM SE NV EWD ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ /THROUGH ASCENT NE OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW/ SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM N TX AND SRN OK EWD TO NRN LA/AR IN ADVANCE OF THE TX MID LEVEL LOW...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 10 19:24:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 14:24:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410101925.i9AJP8t26131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101921 SWODY1 SPC AC 101919 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 40 N BPT 55 E ACT 20 SW ACT 55 S BWD 35 NNE JCT 25 NNW SJT 30 ESE LBB 40 ESE AMA 30 SW GAG 30 W END 30 WNW FSM 35 ENE GWO 35 WNW AUO 15 WNW MCN 15 E CHS ...CONT... 25 SSE DAB 25 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 50 NNW TUS PRC 50 N IGM 40 E DRA 70 W P38 55 SSW ELY 50 NNW MLF 25 SE DPG 15 SSW SLC 35 SSW EVW 35 WNW VEL 30 WSW EGE ALS 25 SSW LVS 50 NNW GDP 35 SSE GDP 40 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER SE LA...SRN MS AND SW AL. THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STRONG STORMS. IN THIS AREA...BACKED SFC FLOW IS CREATING STRONG VEERING BELOW 700 MB WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS LIMITED INLAND AND MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE COAST CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDS EWD FROM A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FROM THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAKE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS. ..BROYLES.. 10/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 01:04:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2004 20:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410110106.i9B16At28499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110103 SWODY1 SPC AC 110101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 7R4 25 SSW ESF 55 SW TYR 15 NNW ABI 55 SSW CDS 55 N CDS 35 SE GAG 45 W TUL 45 ENE FSM 40 WSW UOX 15 NE 0A8 30 ESE CSG 15 SSE SAV ...CONT... DAB 50 W ORL 20 WNW FMY 55 E EYW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 35 S PRC 40 SE IGM 45 SW LAS 35 SW DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 NW P38 DPG 30 SE MLD 40 S BPI 20 E RKS 35 NNW COS 25 ENE RTN 35 WSW TCC 50 ESE GDP 40 SSW P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PNHDL... THE REMNANTS OF T.S. MATTHEW WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SWRN MS...IN THE VICINITY OF HEZ...AT 00Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NWD TOWARD SERN AR BY 12Z MONDAY. 40 KT SELY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN AL INTO AR...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM LA TO AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY AT SLIDELL LA VAD. LOW-LEVEL WAA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING FROM OK TO GA/NRN FL TO THE NORTH OF CLOSED LOW OVER TX/OK AND MATTHEW WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...MAINLY WITHIN THE MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM ERN LA TO FAR SWRN AL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 04-06Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS DECREASE... PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW. ...SRN AZ... 00Z SOUNDINGS AT FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN NV SEWD INTO SRN NM...AND EVENTUALLY FAR SWRN TX. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT INVERTED V PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 05:52:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 00:52:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410110553.i9B5rbt17469@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110552 SWODY1 SPC AC 110550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 30 W SAD 20 N PHX 10 ESE EED 35 S LAS 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U24 45 SSE SLC 35 S VEL 25 NNE GUC RTN 15 W CVS 25 WNW INK 30 NW MRF 50 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 35 N BTR 45 SSW ELD 20 WSW TXK PGO 25 SSE HRO 30 NNW ARG 35 SSW PAH 15 NE CHA 15 SE AHN 45 SW CHS ...CONT... 20 N VRB 60 WSW MIA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THREE CLOSED LOWS WILL BE THE PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TODAY FROM THE SWRN STATES TO OK/TX...AND NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOSED LOWS WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG NRN STREAM ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX TO THE GULF COAST/SRN ATLANTIC STATES. ...ERN AZ/NM/FAR SWRN TX... LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO AZ WILL RETROGRADE WWD ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A RIDGE NOSES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO THE EAST OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AZ...WILL SPREAD EWD AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO FAR SWRN TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZ SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR SWRN TX BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS ALSO INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. RESULTANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL NM INTO FAR SWRN TX. ...OK/KS SEWD TO GULF COAST STATES... REMNANTS OF T.S MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN TURN NWWD INTO MO ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CLOSED UPPER LOW AS THE LATTER MOVES SLOWLY NEWD. BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SRN STREAM JET COMBINED WITH WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE ARC OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES AND THEN SEWD ACROSS FL. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK UPPER FORCING/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 12:34:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 07:34:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410111235.i9BCZHt15482@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111233 SWODY1 SPC AC 111232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0732 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT 25 SW JAN 30 NW MLU 20 WSW TXK 10 NNW PGO 15 NNW HRO 30 SSE TBN 60 SW BLV 30 E MDH 20 WNW BWG 25 W CSV 20 ESE CHA 45 W AGS 45 SW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 30 W SAD 50 ENE PHX 25 SE PRC 40 WNW PRC 15 NE EED 55 E DAG 20 WSW DAG 25 NNE EDW 70 W DRA 60 WNW P38 50 SSE ELY 30 W U24 25 WNW PUC 45 S VEL 25 NNE GUC 10 WSW TAD 10 SE TCC 40 NE HOB 30 ENE FST 20 S P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CIRCUITOUS AND BLOCKY UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SEPARATING AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW AND A SUBTROPICAL STORM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. LATEST ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW ENEWD PROGRESS THROUGH TODAY AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL BY EARLY TUESDAY. BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS IN MOIST BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM FL AND THE DEEP SOUTH NWWD TO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VALLEYS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH LARGER SCALE WRN TROUGH. LEADING IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS AZ/NM TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE ACROSS NV WILL DROP SWWD AND RESULT IN A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SRN CA BY THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. ...NM/WEST TX... CONTINUED MOISTENING AND LIFT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 50S F/...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WEST TX AND SRN NM...SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY WHILE DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THIS MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRODUCED BY MODEST WLYS ATOP ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FURTHER PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 16:24:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 11:24:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410111625.i9BGPwt24687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111623 SWODY1 SPC AC 111622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS 40 N MOB 40 ENE PBF 40 E FSM 25 NW FYV 60 NNW SGF 20 WSW JEF 10 SW STL 25 E MVN 30 ESE OWB 45 ENE BNA 10 N RMG 20 SE MCN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 50 WSW SAD 25 ENE PHX 40 S PRC 40 SSE IGM 10 WSW EED 55 E DAG 20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 60 ESE TPH 45 SE ELY 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD 20 WSW BPI 40 NW RKS 40 E VEL 25 SE ASE 40 SW PUB 30 W DHT 25 E LBB 15 S BGS 45 ESE P07. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE TWO SRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE OVER SRN AZ AND ANOTHER OVER ERN OK/AR. THE OK/AR TROUGH WILL DRIFT NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AR. A FEED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES FROM THE S/SE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT STEEPER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...DEEP LAYER DRYING AND A PRONOUNCED CAP NEAR 700 MB WILL INHIBIT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS THE FAR W TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ WILL EJECT EWD TODAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR W TX AND SRN NM. THE 12Z EPZ SOUNDING SUPPORTS SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S /WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ARE PREVALENT/ AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 45-50 F. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 11 19:02:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 14:02:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410111903.i9BJ3Wt02164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111901 SWODY1 SPC AC 111859 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0159 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM 20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB 45 ENE TAD PVW BGS 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PNS MEI 50 SW JBR HRO UMN 60 NNW SGF JEF STL 30 N EVV 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PRONOUNCED SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...DOMINATED BY CYCLONES OVER SWRN CONUS AND OVER OK. LATTER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN OZARKS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...SHIFTING CLOSER TO SFC CENTER NOW ANALYZED OVER NRN AR. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD THEN SSWWD FROM AR LOW...ACROSS WRN MS AND S-CENTRAL LA. DOUBLE WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS ANALYZED WITH MARINE FRONT FROM CENTRAL MS TO AL COAST...AND SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT NEARLY BISECTING TN FROM W-E. LATTER FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY WHILE MARINE FRONT DRIFTS NEWD AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN EPISODIC CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...OUT W...UPPER LOW HAS BINARY STRUCTURE WITH CENTERS OVER ERN AZ AND OVER SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. AZ CENTER WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AND MOVING EWD INTO NM AS LOW-AMPLITUDE/OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION. NV/CA CENTER IS FCST TO RETROGRADE SWWD ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH 12/12Z. ...SRN NM...FAR W TX... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY INTENSE -- GENERALLY AOB 20 KT THROUGH MOST OF 0-6 KM AGL LAYER BASED ON VWP FROM HDX/EPZ. HOWEVER...NEARLY 180 DEG DIRECTIONAL TURNING LEADS TO STRETCHED HODOGRAPHS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED RUC2 FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS 40S TO LOW 50S F AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AWAY FROM AREAS STABILIZED BY ONGOING/PRIOR CONVECTION. TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK BECAUSE OF LOW LEVEL COOLING RELATED BOTH TO OUTFLOWS AND DIABATIC HEAT LOSS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 00:52:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 19:52:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410120053.i9C0rBt20485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120051 SWODY1 SPC AC 120049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PFN 30 SSW TCL 15 ENE UOX 25 WNW ARG 10 N SGF 10 NE SZL 35 SSE IRK 25 SW SPI 45 SW BMG 45 NE BWG CSV RMG MCN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DUG 40 SSE IGM 20 WSW DAG 35 NW NID 60 SSE BIH 35 WNW U24 30 E MLD BPI RKS ASE PUB 45 ENE TAD 45 ENE CVS 15 WNW MAF 95 SSE MRF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN NM/FAR WEST TX... BINARY STRUCTURE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE PRIMARY LOW CENTER AS THE WRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES WWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN CA. THE ERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN NM PER WV IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED OVER NM/FAR SWRN TX. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SEWD TO FAR SWRN TX...AND GREATLY DIMINISH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ISOLATED SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO OR 30-40 SW ELP AT 00Z PER ELP RADAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER AS IT TRACKS ESE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONING...THIS STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF THIS STORM REMAINS STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AFFECTING FAR SRN HUDSPETH COUNTY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE U.S. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ONE SUPERCELL...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. ..PETERS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 05:54:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 00:54:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410120555.i9C5tgt28253@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120553 SWODY1 SPC AC 120551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20 NNW CNM 25 NNE INK 60 WSW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 50 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PFN 20 WNW TOI CBM 50 SW MEM ARG 35 NNW POF 20 NW MDH 30 N EVV 50 NE LEX 25 NW 5I3 TRI 25 NNE SPA 10 SE CRE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID MS/TN VALLEYS TO SERN STATES... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AS HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS...WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC RESULTING IN SEWD MOVEMENT OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD TODAY AS IT CARVES A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...AND EJECTS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...NEAR JLN ATTM...SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS. THE CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH. 50 KT WLY SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING AND STRENGTHEN WITH 40-50 KT WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO SC. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY LOCATED NEAR MEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD SRN IND. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/TN AND AL TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN IND TO GA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ENEWD ACROSS KY/TN TODAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM AL INTO GA/NRN FL. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES GIVEN A MID-LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 750-550 MB PER GFS FORECAST AND OBSERVED 00Z LCH/SLIDELL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT. DRY MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 12:38:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 07:38:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410121239.i9CCdVt06289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121237 SWODY1 SPC AC 121236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20 NNW CNM 25 NNE INK 60 WSW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 50 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E AQQ 20 N DHN 10 SE CBM 25 SSE MEM 30 ENE JBR 25 NE VIH 30 SSE UIN 20 S BMI 10 S CMH 25 ESE PKB 30 NNW SSU 10 S BKW 20 WSW PSK 40 S ROA 20 WNW RDU 30 ENE FAY 30 SW ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE SERN STATES... IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL CANADA...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SWRN MO WILL TRANSLATE EWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE...NOW ANALYZED OVER WRN TN...WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL PRECEDE THIS COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS AL/GA TODAY WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LOW AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN FEED OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR OFF THE ERN GULF/WRN ATLANTIC NWWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG AND E OF SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CO-EXIST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SEWD ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF AL/GA. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL INVERSION OBSERVED BY 12Z GULF COAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT PARCEL ACCELERATIONS AND RESULTANT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ...SWRN TX... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL BAJA CA WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS. IF LOW CLOUDS CAN BREAK ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 16:16:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 11:16:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410121617.i9CGHut10620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121613 SWODY1 SPC AC 121611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 30 S ALM 20 NNW CNM 35 WNW MAF 25 SW SJT HDO ALI 50 N MFE 20 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH 25 W MGR 0A8 25 SSE MEM 25 NE VIH 35 S IRK 15 S MLI 15 NW MMO 45 N LAF 30 WNW DAY 25 ESE PKB 30 NW RWI 25 ENE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER SW MO WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY...WHILE A SEPARATE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE SWWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SE MO...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ARCS SEWD ACROSS WRN TN AND SWD ACROSS AL. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TN/AL/GA...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AOB 6 C/KM OVER THE SAME AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 75-80 F SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ACROSS NE AL/N GA AND MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKER AND ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER IN ADVANCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX EJECTING EWD FROM SE AR/NW MS. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS...THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 12 20:09:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 15:09:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410122010.i9CKAKt23300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 50 ENE ELP 30 SSE CNM 20 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN TUP CGI 25 NE VIH UIN MLI MMO 45 N LAF PKB RWI ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 35 SSE COT 30 S ALI 30 WNW MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLVING SIGNIFICANTLY ATTM ACROSS CONUS...TOWARD MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH...NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD FROM PACIFIC NW...AND RETROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE OFFSHORE SRN CA. MID/UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN MO -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY AND DEAMPLIFY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. THIS EJECTION PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER NRN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES -- DIGS SEWD. AT SFC...COLD FRONT OVER NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. BROAD/DIFFUSE CYCLONE OVER SERN MO AND TN VALLEY REGION SHOULD DRIFT NWD TO LOWER OH VALLEY...BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MEANWHILE WEAK FRONT/TROUGH/CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER AL WILL DRIFT EWD TOWARD WRN GA. ...SERN CONUS... VIS IMAGE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS GRADUALLY DEEPENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AMIDST WEAKENING CINH...FROM MID TN SEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO WRN GA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC SFC HEATING SLOWLY BOOSTS DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTMS. EXPECT MLCAPES TO RISE INTO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AWAY FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS SFC HEATING AND 60S/LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RELATIVE DRYING BEHIND CONFLUENCE LINE -- ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS MS/AL -- WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STMS THERE RELATIVE TO FARTHER N/NE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...KEEPING HODOGRAPHS SMALL EVEN WHERE FLOW IS RELATIVELY BACKED E OF SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FASTER THAN CONFLUENCE LINE...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR TO 40-50 KT ACROSS MORE OF MOIST SECTOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL SUPERCELL/BOW MORPHOLOGIES WITH A FEW STORMS...LOCALLY ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 00:48:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 19:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410130049.i9D0nMt08196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130046 SWODY1 SPC AC 130044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 50 ENE ELP 30 SSE CNM 20 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 35 SSE COT 30 S ALI 30 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TLH CSG 10 NW LGC 25 NNE TCL 30 S BLV 10 SSW PIA 45 NNW LAF FWA 40 SSE FDY PKB RWI 25 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W TAD 30 N LVS 15 WSW LVS 25 SSW 4SL 45 NNW 4SL 10 SSE CEZ 35 NNE CEZ 25 W GUC 10 SSW ASE 25 S 4FC 40 W TAD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY TO SERN CONUS... CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN MO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN IL...WILL BOTH TRACK SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/ERN TN AND GA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW AND LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN IND COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IN THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THESE SURFACE TROUGHS AND CONTINUED PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER GULF COAST/SERN STATES 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND ANY SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN ROCKIES TO PORTIONS OF SWRN AND DEEP SOUTH TX... POCKETS OF WAA AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT...AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 06:04:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 01:04:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410130605.i9D65Yt13495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130603 SWODY1 SPC AC 130601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CHS 10 WNW CAE 10 NNE SPA 15 NW HKY 25 W DAN 35 SW RIC 25 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SAV 35 SSW AHN 35 SSE CSV 35 NE SDF 10 NNW DAY 15 NE FKL 25 NE IPT 25 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 35 WNW SAD 15 NNW SOW 30 NNW GUP 25 SE 4SL 40 SSE 4CR 20 E HOB 30 ESE ACT 15 SSE POE 35 W BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY AS A STRONG...COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGS SSEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO MS VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SRN STREAM OVER SRN TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES. CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT TRACKING NE TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS OH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL IN TURN INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THIS AREA. IN THE CENTRAL STATES...A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SSEWD REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO DEEP S TX BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA... SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NC WILL MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT TO THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY...AND THEN NEWD AS THE DEVELOPING PIEDMONT SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION TONIGHT. WARM MID-LEVEL AIR /IN 700-500 MB LAYER PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ AND SOME CLOUDINESS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN AS LOW-LEVEL SSWLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. 50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION SPREADING OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF VA/NC WITH THIS ACTIVITY RE-INTENSIFYING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND/OR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG WARM FRONT IN THE CAROLINAS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT GREATER INSTABILITY. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE A HAIL THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. SOME BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL. SWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 40 KT ALONG THE SC/NC COAST THIS EVENING...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ERN NC AFTER DARK. ...S TX... HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SLY WINDS ACROSS S TX TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THIS AREA. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE A TORNADO THREAT...BUT LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WIND AND HAIL ARE FORECAST. A GREATER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE MOIST/ UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM DRT-HOU AND SWD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE POST-FRONTAL WITH ELEVATED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SWRN TX INTO SRN NM WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT A SEVERE THREAT THIS FAR WEST. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 12:54:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 07:54:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410131255.i9DCt9t21678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131253 SWODY1 SPC AC 131251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CHS 50 NW FLO 20 SW GSO 20 NE DAN 20 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 40 NNW AGS 20 E CSV 35 NE SDF 40 SE DAY 20 NNW PIT 10 NW CXY 20 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 WSW SAD 25 NW SOW 35 W FMN 45 WSW RTN 65 ENE 4CR 55 NW ABI 30 ESE ACT 40 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...VA SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SRN IND WITH A SECONDARY...WEAKER LOW OVER WRN NC. WARM FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SECONDARY LOW EXTENDED ESEWD ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO S-CNTRL GA. CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION WITH OF FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH APPROACH OF TN VALLEY TROUGH. WARM SECTOR /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER 12Z CHS SOUNDING/ CURRENTLY IS CONFINED TO NERN GA AND ERN SC. AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF TN VALLEY SYSTEM...EXPECT AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE NWD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN INTO SERN VA. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT SWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR AND ALONG COLD FRONT. INCREASINGLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR /OWING TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT/ WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ...TX... COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS WILL DIVE SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...SWRN TX AND CONCHO VALLEY. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG WLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...FAST SWD FRONTAL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL EITHER BECOME ELEVATED ATOP POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OR ASSUME MORE OF A LINEAR CONFIGURATION ALONG SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL PRODUCTION...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION ESEWD THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING...THUS WARRANTING ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING WILL EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INHERENT SEVERE THREAT. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 16:38:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 11:38:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410131639.i9DGd4t26623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131636 SWODY1 SPC AC 131635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 45 SE CLT 25 SW GSO 20 E DAN 15 NNE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DUG 45 WSW SAD 25 NW SOW 10 SSW CEZ 45 S MTJ 45 SW PUB 20 NNE RTN 50 WNW CVS 55 NW ABI 45 NNE CLL 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CHS 10 N TYS 30 SW LUK 15 E MFD 20 SSW DUJ 30 NE CXY 20 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS.... ...ERN CAROLINAS AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER KY/TN IS MOVING ENEWD AND GRADUALLY LOSING AMPLITUDE...WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX INVOF N GA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN GA/UPSTATE SC...WHILE A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE WAA REGIME NE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SC AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG...EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NC...WHERE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO/ WILL BE GREATER. FARTHER W/SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CELLULAR OR POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ...TX AREA... A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO TOWARD THE BIG BEND...WHILE A DEEP NRN STREAM TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD TX BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING SWD ACROSS NW TX AND OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH W CENTRAL AND SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND S CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 65-70 F REMAIN OVER S CENTRAL AND DEEP S TX AS OF MID MORNING...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION FROM S TX INTO W TX. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER S CENTRAL/SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX AND SPREAD SEWD TO S CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT INVOF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS W/SW TX...REACHING S CENTRAL TX LATE. A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ACROSS S TX. STILL...SOME PART OF W TX TO S CENTRAL COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AT 20Z. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 13 20:16:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 15:16:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410132017.i9DKHit31821@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132010 SWODY1 SPC AC 132008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRP ALI 60 WNW COT DRT 60 SE MAF 45 E BGS BWD TPL 35 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DUG 45 WSW SAD INW 10 SSW CEZ MTJ GUC LVS 40 E DHT MWL LFK 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 5I3 20 N CMH CLE BUF IPT ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SW AND S-CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EVOLVING TOWARD DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH AND MAINTAINING LONGWAVE RIDGE OFF W COAST. INITIAL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER OH VALLEY - IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...WEAK SFC LOW HAS FORMED AT OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT -- OVER WRN NC -- AND SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS VA BORDER TOWARD SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AREA BEFORE SFC LOW ARRIVES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CAROLINAS -- CHARACTERIZED MORE BY VEERED SFC FLOW AND DRY ADVECTION THAN BY SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER NRN FL AND NERN CENTRAL GULF...AND APPEARS TO BE RETREATING NEWD AS SUBTLE WARM FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST. FARTHER W...MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AS IT DIGS SSEWD TOWARD ERN KS...MO AND ERN OK. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM SRN MO SWWD TO SERN NM -- WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS IT SWEEPS SEWD INTO NWRN GULF. ...SW/S TX... SEVERAL MODES OF MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD WHICH -- IN AGGREGATE -- WILL BUILD SEVERE PROBABILITIES ENOUGH TO COMPEL CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK. FIRST...ONGOING CONVECTION IN RELATIVELY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS MID TX COAST IS IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE -- NEAR EDGE OF MODIFYING MARINE AIR. AS CAP WEAKENS WITH CONTINUED HEATING FARTHER W...AND BUOYANCY INCREASES...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BUILD WWD THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX IN ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL MORPHOLOGIES. STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALSO MAY ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALLY. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. SECOND...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS OVER SRN HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...AS HEATING/MIXING CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND CAP WEAKENS. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AT AROUND 7 DEG C/KM...EXPECT PREFRONTAL THETAE INCREASE TO RESULT IN MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR ALSO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA...ENHANCING STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPECT EFFECTIVE ANAFRONTAL SITUATION WHERE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY UNDERCUT...BECOMING ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL AS MAIN THREAT. FINALLY...MODELS REASONABLY PERSIST IN FORECASTING CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST REGION -- DEVELOPING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS PERSISTING BEHIND IT. THIS MAY EITHER BE CONTINUATION/EXTENSION OF AFTERNOON TSTMS OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH APCH OF FRONT. IN EITHER EVENT MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG AND 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEARS SHOULD COUNTERACT DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL IN THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION AS WELL. LARGE NUMBER OF TSTMS MAY RESULT IN CLUSTER OF SEVERE EVENTS EVEN IF ONLY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF STORMS REACH THAT LEVEL. ...ERN NC... SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS NOT VANISHED ALTOGETHER BUT IS DECLINING ACROSS THIS REGION AS BULK OF WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES OUT TO SEA. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN INVOF SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM NRN NC. HOWEVER...BOTH SFC CONVERGENCE AND BUOYANCY ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE INLAND AS OFFSHORE BECAUSE OF STRONGLY VEERED FLOW AND DRYING S OF WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES INVOF WARM FRONT FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...AND DROP CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 00:39:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 13 Oct 2004 19:39:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410140040.i9E0eMt08857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140038 SWODY1 SPC AC 140036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CRP ALI 55 E P07 45 S MAF 35 SE BGS 30 SSW ABI 10 SSW AUS 50 SSE AUS 30 SSW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRE 40 WSW GSO ROA 15 ENE SHD MRB 15 NW ILG 25 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DMN 60 SW SVC SAD 25 NW SVC TCS 30 NNE ALM ROW 65 NNW ABI MWL 40 ESE 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS.... DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING/DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND LIFT TOWARD MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...LOCATED IN BASE OF LEAD UPPER TROUGH...IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR WAVE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE LIFTED PARCELS LIKELY HAVE ORIGINS IN HEATED WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...RISK OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT AT TOP OF DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER MAY STILL BE WARM/UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ...TEXAS... LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAKENING TRENDS TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN TEXAS...PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING NORTH/WEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. AS COLD FRONT SURGES/REDEVELOPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND AREA THIS EVENING...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION MAY BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO AREAS SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED THROUGH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 05:53:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 00:53:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410140554.i9E5s3t28466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140552 SWODY1 SPC AC 140550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM MOB 30 E TOI 50 NE MGR AYS 35 S JAX 20 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 45 E ATY 35 SW OTG 15 SE YKN 40 SSW MHE 40 ENE PIR 25 SSE BIS 60 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 25 S AUS 15 ESE LFK 50 SE SHV 40 S PBF 60 SW ARG 20 NW SDF 35 WSW MGW 15 ENE BWI 20 SSW POU 25 NNE EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES.... PERHAPS MOST PROMINENT FEATURES EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... AND VERY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET MIGRATING AROUND ITS NORTHERN/ EASTERN PERIPHERY. JET STREAK AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE BEGUN TO DIG MORE STRONGLY ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MERGE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FORMING HIGH AMPLITUDE...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT SURGING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAKER WAVE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD THIS FRONT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD NEAR GULF COASTAL AREAS. THIS LOW/WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATES INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...HOWEVER...AND THIS REVOLVES MOSTLY AROUND RECOVERY OF BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH MID DAY APPEARS LIKELY...AND PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION APPEAR LIMITED...AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA PARISHES...THEN BY EARLY EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF LOW...AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL DEVELOP IN UNSTABLE OFFSHORE AIR MASS...WHERE CAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...BEFORE DEVELOPING INLAND ...PROVIDING MAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR COASTAL AREAS. AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY EVOLVING PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY POSE ADDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION UNLIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS... MOST INTENSE PORTION OF LINE MAY REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS.... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. ETA/GFS BOTH INDICATE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL WAVE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 12:39:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 07:39:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410141240.i9ECe0t30121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141238 SWODY1 SPC AC 141236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GPT 40 ENE MOB 35 N DHN 55 NNW AYS 25 WNW SSI 30 S JAX 30 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 35 ESE SHV 50 N GLH 15 NNE DYR 40 NNE SDF 20 E LYH 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL 25 S POU 15 ESE BOS ...CONT... 10 W LRD 35 ENE CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 35 NE ATY 35 ESE HON 10 SW 9V9 25 ESE PHP 50 SW MBG 35 SSE BIS 60 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF COAST AND SERN STATES... ...NERN GULF COAST INTO SRN AL/GA... DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES. AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES THROUGH TROUGH BASE AND INTO DOWNSTREAM POSITION...INTENSIFICATION INTO A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...PRIOR TO SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...TO AS FAR E AS CNTRL SC SWD ACROSS ERN GA AND THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY 15/12Z. EARLY MORNING GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN AND N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO IS ALREADY RECOVERING IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE TX COAST WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED EWD TODAY BY NARROW AXIS OF LOCALLY HIGHER THETA-E BEING ADVECTED NWD IN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND INHERENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO DEEPENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...CONTRIBUTING TO THE NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG/ PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE FL PNHDL INTO SRN PARTS OF AL AND GA. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION TO ONSHORE PORTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE AT THIS TIME OWING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND IT/S INTERACTION WITH A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45KTS/. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN SQUALL LINE /QLCS TYPE/ OR WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE E IN WARM SECTOR. ...SRN FL... TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN FL AND THE KEYS WITH APPROACH OF WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A ROTATING STORM OR TWO...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW. ...ND... STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE STORMS LATER TODAY INVOF SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 16:20:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 11:20:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410141621.i9EGL5t13078@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141618 SWODY1 SPC AC 141616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BVE 30 E MOB 25 SSE TOI 25 N ABY 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL 35 S POU 15 ESE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW GFK 55 NE ATY 25 NE BKX 20 SE HON 35 ENE PIR 35 SSE BIS 45 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DRT 35 E DRT 45 ENE LRD 15 NE ALI 50 SSE VCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 SSW HEZ 30 SE JAN 40 SSW CBM 40 ENE DYR 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK 10 ENE HLG 20 SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NE GULF COAST EWD TO THE NE FL AND GA COASTS.... ...SYNOPSIS... MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS UNDERWAY WITH ONE INTENSE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER AR/MO AND ANOTHER NRN STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS AND MN...RESULTING IN A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN INVOF OH AS THE AR/MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WITH 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 M/ ROTATES EWD THEN NEWD BY LATE TONIGHT. S OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE NE GULF COAST AND APPALACHIANS BY LATER TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH. ...NE GULF COAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NW GULF. THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST BY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH LIMITED MERIDIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RATHER POOR UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ...S FL AREA... A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE KEYS AND S FL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS S FL IN RESPONSE TO THE MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE MOIST PROFILES WITH AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 14 19:59:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 14:59:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410142000.i9EK0Bt31949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141956 SWODY1 SPC AC 141955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 15 SW MAI 25 S ABY 40 WNW AYS 20 SE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 30 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DOV 20 ENE PHL 35 S POU 15 ESE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM GPT 15 ENE MEI 15 SSW CBM 30 NNE TUP 35 NE MKL 25 S PAH 30 SSE FDY 25 SSE CAK 10 ENE HLG 20 SW SSU 30 ESE DAN 35 ESE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA... ...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA... BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MODIFY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN FL AND SRN GA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT. RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE...BUT MOISTENING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NERN GULF COASTAL AREA OVERNIGHT. TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF WRN FL PNHDL SHOULD EXPAND AND INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS MAY OCCUR OWING TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE LOW- MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER STRONG...SWLY H5 FLOW OF 65 KTS ATOP SWLY H85 WINDS OF 45 KTS. THUS...ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER TONIGHT. MARGINALITY OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER... WILL LIKELY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. ...SRN FL... SRN PERIPHERY OF MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO GRAZE SRN FL LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE MIDLEVEL CONVECTION NOTED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SW OF KEYW INVOF AN OLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE KEYS. THE MIDLEVEL FLOW IN SRN FL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT. ...LWR OH/MID TN VLYS... A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF 150 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN KY AND MID TN. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. STRONG SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 10/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 00:53:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 14 Oct 2004 19:53:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410150054.i9F0sKt03032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150052 SWODY1 SPC AC 150050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 35 ENE MAI 25 NNE VLD 30 WNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 55 SSW GNV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVE SEM BHM 35 ENE HSV 25 SSE BWG OWB 30 N EVV BMG 10 ENE MIE FDY 35 N CLE ERI BFD 30 ENE PSB 30 NE CHO 40 S CHO 50 N RWI 30 ENE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FLORIDA AND SRN GEORGIA.... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK HAS DEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW. THIS IS OCCURRING AS ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. AS UPSTREAM FEATURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING IMPULSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORMATION OF HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LACK OF WARMER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LACK OF MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS. ...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS... MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 50F...IS CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ONGOING ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN BAND OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA... WHICH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THOUGH VERY WEAK CAPE WILL MINIMIZE VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTION IN RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AHEAD OF LINE ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KTS...SO LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS SEEMS LOW. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY 15/06Z. ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS AXIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING... WHICH COULD POSE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEST POTENTIAL MAY BE NEAR NORTHERN/WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS. ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS... MODELS STILL SUGGEST INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET. GIVEN CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES... WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NEAR COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 05:47:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 00:47:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410150548.i9F5mGt09375@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150546 SWODY1 SPC AC 150545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10 SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS SUGGEST RETROGRESSION OF UPPER HIGH AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BROADENS WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO SERIES OF VIGOROUS IMPULSES MIGRATING AROUND NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. A JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TOPPING RIDGE NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...MODELS INDICATE LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND EASTERN GULF STATES...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. A COUPLE OF SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COMPOSE BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH ONE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. ...MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES... IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS STRENGTHENING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ENHANCED FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE...WHICH BY DAYBREAK APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOW TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF PRIOR SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S... CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE IN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME MAY BE SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST OF THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...VEERING FLOW WILL MINIMIZE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER... STRONGER STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM OFF COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE. 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MODEL FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS... PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 13:04:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 08:04:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410151305.i9FD58t26639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151302 SWODY1 SPC AC 151300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 20 E JAX ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 40 SW EKN 30 NNW HTS 10 SSE MIE 45 NNE FWA 70 SSE OSC ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE AROUND THIS FEATURE. STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER OH ATTM WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO SRN QUEBEC AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS GA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE BASE OF THE ERN TROUGH IS NO LONGER DIGGING WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA THIS AFTERNOON. ...FL PENINSULA... AT 12Z...SRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SC SWD TO ALONG THE GA COAST...THEN SWWD TO LEVY COUNTY FL AND INTO THE GULF. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM ERN SC TO NRN FL/ERN GULF...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OFFSHORE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD THIS MORNING AND OFFSHORE GA/SC BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN FL. MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS /LOWER 60S/ ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PER TAMPA 12Z SOUNDING WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/...DESPITE SOME SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL FL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FORCING AS THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES CENTRAL FL WILL FURTHER INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL WSWLY WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KT THIS MORNING. ...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ERN NC/SERN VA... INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SRN EXTENT OF VORTICITY WITH THE UPPER OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL ERN NC/SERN VA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS FORCING...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT INLAND DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON...STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. HOWEVER...IF SOME INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE NC/SERN VA COASTAL REGIONS...THERE WOULD BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL PA INTO WRN NY... AS VERY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER OH /-26C AT ILN 12Z SOUNDING/ SPREADS NEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND INTO WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 16:24:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 11:24:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410151625.i9FGPHt28610@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151613 SWODY1 SPC AC 151611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ORF 25 SE RIC 30 NE RIC 10 ENE DCA 30 ESE BWI 10 N DOV 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 10 WNW DAB ...CONT... 25 ESE SAV 30 SW FAY 20 SE DAN 10 NNE EKN 25 NW HLG 25 ENE FWA 25 WSW LAN 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS DELMARVA... ...DELMARVA... VERY STRONG TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH POSITION OVER ERN U.S. THE S/WV INITIALLY AT 12Z FROM OH VALLEY SWD WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WRN OH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM DROPS SEWD WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER LWR MI SAT AM WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET ACROSS TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES NWD FROM LE ACROSS LH THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER DEEPENING SERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN PA SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON DELMARVA AS THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION IMPLIED BY THE 180M 12HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AT ILN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WITH LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS ONLY INTO THE LOW 60S...MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE 500 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT IN PLACE COUPLED WITH THE 80 PLUS KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA DURING AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV TROUGH...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED GENERALLY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF BLUE RIDGE. PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG KINEMATICS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EWD AND OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ...SRN FL... FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN FL WILL CLEAR THE PENINSULA BY LATER THIS EVENING. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SMALL AS THE DEEP TROPICAL AIR IS NOW S AND E OF FL. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT THRU THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP SERN COAST PROVIDED SEA BREEZE FRONT CAN SET UP INLAND GIVEN THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT. ANY STORM ALONG SEA BREEZE WOULD BE IN AN ENHANCED AREA OF SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 15 19:43:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 14:43:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410151943.i9FJhvt02125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151942 SWODY1 SPC AC 151940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RIC 15 NNW RIC 20 ENE CHO 25 S MRB 20 E HGR 35 N BWI 30 E BWI 35 NNE NHK 25 SE NHK 35 ENE RIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE EWN 30 NW HSE 15 SSE ECG 20 SW ORF 40 SSE RIC 25 SW RIC CHO 20 SSW MRB HGR 15 SSW LBE 35 NE ZZV 35 NNW MFD 25 SSE FNT 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... FMY 10 NNW VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN VA AND CNTRL/ERN MD... ...NRN VA-CNTRL/ERN MD... 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 994 MB SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING VCNTY KCHO WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT NWD INTO CNTRL PA AND A TRAILING DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT SWD INTO CNTRL NC. PRIMARY WARM CONVEYER BELT AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS/CONVECTION HAVE RAPIDLY MOVED EWD...WITH THE BACK EDGE SITUATED ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY EWD. IN ITS WAKE...DRY SLOT HAS WORKED NWD INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM CNTRL VA NWD INTO THE KCXY AREA. INSOLATION HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60F. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE CENTERED OVER NRN VA AND THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR KIAD BY EARLY EVENING. CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN MAINTAINING SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VLY OF NRN VA EWD TOWARD THE FREDERICKSBURG/WASHINGTON/FREDERICK AREAS. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN WIND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. IF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION CAN INDEED DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF ISOLD TORNADO TOO. FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST...THE SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY DIMINISHES OWING TO MAINTENANCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF H5 HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLD RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY. ...SRN FL... SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH VERO BEACH AND FORT MYERS PER WSHFT AT BOTH SITES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE FLOW REMAINS VEERED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN SUPPORTING SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP VCNTY THE FRONT...BUT LIFE CYCLES SHOULD BE SHORT. NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..RACY.. 10/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 00:48:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2004 19:48:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410160049.i9G0nMt03412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160047 SWODY1 SPC AC 160046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 40 NNE ORF 25 WSW DOV 10 WSW PHL TTN EWR 10 WNW ISP 15 WSW BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SPREAD INTO REGION. FRONT WILL PROGRESS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH. MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION FORMED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHERE MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED NEAR THE GULF STREAM. PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...BETWEEN POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET AXES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 05:14:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 00:14:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410160517.i9G5HAt23333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160513 SWODY1 SPC AC 160511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK UCA ELM 30 N MSV 10 N ALB EEN 10 ESE PSM ...CONT... 20 ENE SBY 45 N RIC 20 WSW SHD 25 NW MGW ERI 60 W BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. IS ALREADY UNDERWAY. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL COOLING/DRYING HAS STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND ONLY SLOW MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT ...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM. NEXT IN SERIES OF JET STREAKS/SHORT WAVES TOPPING RETROGRADING PACIFIC RIDGE IS ALREADY DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE INLAND. MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND IS NOT PROGGED TO MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINING DRY...PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR REMOTE. ...UPPER OHIO/LOWER LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST... STRONG MID/UPPER JET IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL TURN EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY MID DAY...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA/NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL AS LOW AS -28C...LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS EARLY AS 18Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...DEVELOPING IN COOLING CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 12:47:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 07:47:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410161248.i9GCm8t03584@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161245 SWODY1 SPC AC 161243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 45 WSW SLK 45 NNE UCA 45 ENE UCA 20 SW GFL 15 ENE EEN 20 WNW PWM 40 NW EPM ...CONT... 10 SSW WAL 40 N RIC 20 WSW SHD 10 NW HLG CAK 30 NNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MRY 35 E MRY 45 NE SMX 35 NW PMD 20 NNE RAL 25 W TRM CZZ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DE-AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY AS GULF OF AK TROUGH DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE WA/OR COAST...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND THE SUBSEQUENT DISPLACEMENT OF LARGE...COLD GREAT LAKES TROUGH NNEWD INTO CANADA. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TURN EWD AND TRACK OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. RECENT INTRUSION OF COLD/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO TO NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AS STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID MS VALLEY JET STREAK SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NERN STATES. THESE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28C AT DVN 12Z SOUNDING/ WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...LAKE INDUCED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY OVER AND IN LEE OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO TODAY...AS COLD LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /0 TO -4C AT 850 MB/ SPREADS ACROSS WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES /15-17C/ STRENGTHENING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ...PORTIONS OF SRN CA... LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED 400 MILES WEST OF SRN CA COAST...IS PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD SRN CA IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPSTREAM GULF OF AK TROUGH. AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EWD TOWARD SRN CA BY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 16:12:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 11:12:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410161613.i9GGDAt05142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161608 SWODY1 SPC AC 161606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ORF 30 S CHO SSU 25 S 5I3 15 N JKL 25 W UNI 20 NE CMH 20 NNW MFD 20 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MSS 35 SSW BTV 20 WSW MWN 30 N AUG HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OH/KY EARLY...THEN SPREADING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN VORT MAX...COOLING ALOFT AND LONG TRAJECTORIES OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE EFFECT THUNDER TO OCCUR AS WELL. ...SRN CA... UPPER LOW WITH CENTER APPROXIMATELY 325 NM OFF THE SANTA BARBARA COAST AS OF 16Z WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN CA BY SUNDAY MORNING. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH IN UPPER REACHES OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THEREFORE...WHILE AN ISOLATED STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SANTA BARBARA AREA...WILL OPT TO REMOVE 10 PERCENT THUNDER LINE. ..JEWELL/HALES.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 16 19:30:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 14:30:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410161931.i9GJV7t08069@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161929 SWODY1 SPC AC 161927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL RIC 10 SW CHO 25 SE MGW 25 NE LBE 30 NE FKL 30 SW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ART 15 ESE ALB 25 N ORH 20 WNW PWM HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN U.S... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A STRONG MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NRN VA AND MD ATTM. SPORADIC TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET STREAK TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER GRTLKS WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES REMAIN LONG. ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. ...SRN CA COAST... UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FILLING AND EJECTING NEWD. IT SHOULD REACH SRN CA BY 12Z. COOLING ALOFT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT OVER SRN CA AND ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PER VSBL SATELLITE AND LONG RANGE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA. THIS SUPPORTS THE REMOVAL OF 10 PERCENT+ GENERAL TSTM LINE IN EARLIER FORECAST. ..RACY.. 10/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 00:51:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2004 19:51:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410170051.i9H0ptt12272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170050 SWODY1 SPC AC 170048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SBY 10 S DOV 20 SSW ABE 20 ENE AVP 15 S BGM 20 S ELM 20 SSW JHW 10 SW ERI 45 W ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 3B1 40 SSE HUL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE UPPER-LOW NEAR ONTARIO AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ACROSS WRN PA. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS NY AND COULD SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS OF NH...VT AND ME OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S F AND COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 05:15:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 00:15:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410170516.i9H5GWt25264@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170514 SWODY1 SPC AC 170513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ARG 25 ENE HRO 15 SE SGF 40 NNE SGF 30 SSW JEF 30 ENE VIH 30 SSW BLV 10 SW MDH 20 WSW PAH 15 NW DYR JBR 45 W ARG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W P35 10 NNW DNV 35 SSW CRW 35 ENE TRI 50 WSW AVL 30 S MSL 15 E PBF 30 W PBF 45 ESE FSM 50 NW FYV FLV 15 W P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST 25 NW YKM 20 N 4OM 10 NNE 63S 30 N 3TH 45 ESE MLS 35 WNW PHP 30 NNW BBW 50 NNE HLC 50 NNE GCK 35 SSW EHA 35 SE LVS 50 SSE GNT 50 NNE SOW 25 SE SGU 40 ENE SCK 35 SSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO AND NE AR... ...MID MS VALLEY... A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E TX AND THE OZARKS THIS EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT QUICKLY NWD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 70 F REACHING THE SRN OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AR AND WRN TN. STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE MO AT 06Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BUT THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LESS BECAUSE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SWIFT WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER QUICKLY EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP IN NE AR AND WRN TX AS STORMS INITIATE...SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 05:26:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 00:26:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410170527.i9H5RZt28789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170525 SWODY1 SPC AC 170524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ARG 25 ENE HRO 15 SE SGF 40 NNE SGF 30 SSW JEF 30 ENE VIH 30 SSW BLV 10 SW MDH 20 WSW PAH 15 NW DYR JBR 45 W ARG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W P35 10 NNW DNV 35 SSW CRW 35 ENE TRI 50 WSW AVL 30 S MSL 15 E PBF 30 W PBF 45 ESE FSM 50 NW FYV FLV 15 W P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST 25 NW YKM 20 N 4OM 10 NNE 63S 30 N 3TH 45 ESE MLS 35 WNW PHP 30 NNW BBW 50 NNE HLC 50 NNE GCK 35 SSW EHA 35 SE LVS 50 SSE GNT 50 NNE SOW 25 SE SGU 40 ENE SCK 35 SSW EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MO AND NE AR... CORRECTED WRN TX TO WRN TN IN LAST PARAGRAPH ...MID MS VALLEY... A FAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS E TX AND THE OZARKS THIS EVENING LIFTING A WARM FRONT QUICKLY NWD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 70 F REACHING THE SRN OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AR AND WRN TN. STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE MO AT 06Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOW LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BUT THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY WILL BE MUCH LESS BECAUSE THE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE SWIFT WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER QUICKLY EWD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP IN NE AR AND WRN TN AS STORMS INITIATE...SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 12:56:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 07:56:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410171257.i9HCv9t03059@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171254 SWODY1 SPC AC 171252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE LIT 25 SSW HRO 20 NNW SGF 35 WSW JEF 40 WSW STL 10 WSW MVN 40 NNW HOP 45 E MKL 35 S MKL 40 ENE LIT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW AST EAT 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 75 NW FCA 70 NW FCA GTF COD CPR MHN 10 NE MCK LHX RTN 45 SE LVS ABQ U17 CDC 70 W P38 BIH FAT SCK EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 LAF DAY HTS 35 ESE 5I3 TRI RMG TCL JAN 35 N ESF SHV 35 ENE PRX JLN STJ P35. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE PWM 3B1 70 WNW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OZARKS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA AND NV... WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN STRENGTHENING SRN STREAM FLOW EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...BEFORE TURNING EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE CA/NV TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION. ...SRN MO/NRN AR TO MID MS VALLEY... EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX ENEWD TO THE LA/AR BORDER AND THEN ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD TODAY AS SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM OK/TX EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE CA/NV UPPER TROUGH. BY LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 03Z/...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS TO SWRN MO AND SEWD TO NRN AL/GA. MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS AR THIS EVENING AND INTO SRN MO TO WRN KY/TN TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LA/ARKLATEX...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NRN AR/MO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO 30-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY. SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT THIS EVENING. STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION...WITH INCREASING WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...LLJ WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO AR/MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING SEVERE THREAT EWD TO SRN IL AND WRN KY/TN. ..PETERS/HART.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 17 16:13:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 11:13:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410171613.i9HGDht25433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171608 SWODY1 SPC AC 171607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE HOT 35 ESE FSM 30 N SGF COU 40 NW STL 15 E SLO 20 NNW HOP 55 SW CKV 35 S MKL 15 ESE HOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 20 ESE OLM 30 NE SEA 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 90 ENE 63S 10 NNE MSO 10 ENE WEY 55 NNE BPI 25 SSE LND 40 NNW LAR 25 NW BFF 50 ESE CDR 40 SE MHN 20 SSE MCK 10 ESE GLD 20 NW LIC 35 WSW COS 35 N LVS 35 SE ABQ 45 NNW SVC 55 SSW INW 10 ESE CDC 10 E ELY 20 S NFL 10 SSW RNO TVL 60 SSE TVL 45 ENE MER 25 N MER 30 ESE SAC 25 NW SAC 55 NW UKI ...CONT... 35 SSE VCT 35 ESE ACT 20 W PRX 25 W JLN 25 SSW FNB 35 WSW LWD 30 E OTM 15 S LAF 20 NW BKW 20 W HSS 10 NW RMG 25 SSW BHM 30 SE LUL 25 SE HUM ...CONT... 20 WSW BHB 50 NNE 3B1 80 WNW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN MO/NRN AR TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE RAPID READJUSTMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY OVER THE CONUS. STRONG SEWD DIGGING TROUGH OFF PAC NW COAST HAS OPENED UP OLD CLOSED LOW W OF SRN CA WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING EWD AS A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS SWRN U.S. AT THE SURFACE A LOW DEVELOPING LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS SWRN TROUGH REACHES ERN KS/OK BY 12Z MON. SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40-50 KT BY THIS EVENING SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GRADUAL VEERING TO MORE SWLY AND SHIFTING EWD TOWARD LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER WRN GULF IS RAPIDLY BEING TRANSPORTED NWD THRU ERN TX/LA INTO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT AHEAD OF SWRN S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG UPPER JET. ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY... PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY TONIGHT ACROSS MO/NRN AR. WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS ALREADY ONSHORE TX...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCELERATING NEWD ON THE 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET...A MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON ERN TX INTO SRN AR WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG COASTAL TX TO 2000 J/KG SRN AR. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LLJ NOW EXTENDING INLAND FROM GULF OF MEXICO TO THE W OF HOU. WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER FARTHER N TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF THE FAST MOVING TROUGH AND 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND PVA WITH TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MODELS BRING THESE PARAMETERS TOGETHER BETWEEN 03-06Z VICINITY SRN MO/NRN AR WITH AN EXPANDING AREA REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WITH ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. ...NRN CA... VIGOROUS S/WV OFF PAC NW COAST WILL DRIVE INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OR THIS EVENING. LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR A SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES SAC VALLEY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS...CONTINGENT ON THE AIR MASS ADDED A CONDITIONAL LOW PROB OF SEVERE NRN CA ...PARTICULARLY NRN SAC VALLEY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 05:59:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 00:59:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410180601.i9I61ft02471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180600 SWODY1 SPC AC 180558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW PBF 25 NE HOT 50 N HOT 40 NE SGF 15 ESE SZL 40 E STJ 30 WSW LWD 30 NNW LWD 25 ESE DSM 15 NNE PIA 30 SSW MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 N LEX 55 SSW LEX 20 SE BNA 35 NE UOX 50 E PBF 15 WNW PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 SSW GGG 45 ENE TUL 25 NW CNU 35 N RSL 40 E SNY 55 ENE CAG 50 SE VEL 25 WSW U24 40 W ENV 30 NNE OWY 10 NW HLN 75 SSW GGW 35 NNE DIK BIS RWF 10 ENE CGX MFD 25 NE MGW 10 SW BWI 25 SW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW FMY 50 SSE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 30 NNE CAE 10 WSW AHN 50 SE MEI 35 WSW HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY... ...MID MS VALLEY/WRN OH VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN OH AND TN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS THE CONVECTION DRIFTS EWD...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN AR AND MO...HELPING SFC TEMPS TO HEAT UP QUICKLY INTO THE 80S F BY MID-DAY. THIS WILL SET UP AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ORIENTED SSW TO NNE ACROSS AR...SE MO AND WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO INITIATE EAST OF THE SFC LOW NEAR ST LOUIS BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE EVENING SSWWD ACROSS SE MO AND ERN AR. THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ST LOUIS AT 21Z MONDAY SHOWS ABOUT 55 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND MATURE...MOVING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS SERN MO AND SRN IL. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS MERGERS IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE STORMS SHOULD RETAIN A SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID TN VALLEY. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 12:30:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 07:30:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410181232.i9ICWVu11055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181230 SWODY1 SPC AC 181228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELD 40 NNE TXK 20 SE FSM 35 ENE SGF 30 NW COU UIN 20 SE BMI 30 SSW MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 N LEX 55 SSW LEX 20 SE BNA 40 NW MSL 40 NNW GWO 40 NE ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE PSX 35 ESE CLL 45 SW TYR 30 SSW PRX 25 NW PGO 25 WNW JLN 30 N EMP 40 W CNK 45 SW IML 20 WNW 4FC 10 NW U28 30 SW U24 35 SSW ENV 20 E TWF 20 SSW MQM 45 ENE WEY 20 WSW SHR 35 NNW 81V 35 SSW Y22 35 ENE MBG 35 E ABR RWF 10 ENE CGX MFD 25 NE MGW 10 SW BWI 25 SW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ILM 30 NNE CAE 10 WSW AHN 50 SE MEI 35 WSW HUM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ENEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AR/MO...EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER AS IT BECOMES FOCUSED FROM WRN TN INTO SRN OH. RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW EXPANSIVE MCS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN RECOVERING AIRMASS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE WRN EDGE OF THIS EXPANDING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HIGHEST THETA-E AIRMASS AND WARM SECTOR RECOVERY WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN MO WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SFC DEW POINTS ALREADY RISING THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S...ANY APPRECIABLE HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION DESPITE THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST THINKING IS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT EWD DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL AR...NEWD INTO SRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION...AND WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...ACTIVITY ACROSS AR MAY SLOWLY INTENSIFY...EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION. ..DARROW.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 16:16:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 11:16:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410181618.i9IGIhu30194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181611 SWODY1 SPC AC 181609 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MLU 30 SSE TXK 40 E FSM 30 E SGF 30 SSE IRK 30 WNW SPI 20 NE CMI 35 S MIE 20 WSW LUK 30 E LEX 30 WSW LOZ 55 SE BNA 25 W HSV 50 ESE GWO 35 NNE MLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ABR 45 E ABR 25 W BKX 35 W YKN 25 NW EAR 15 SSE IML 25 WNW 4FC 45 NE U28 40 ENE U24 35 N OGD 20 SSE PIH 20 SW MQM 40 NE WEY 40 SE 4BQ 35 ENE MBG 45 NW ABR ...CONT... 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA ...CONT... 35 SSE VCT 35 SSE AUS 30 ESE ACT 30 W PRX 30 NW PGO 15 NW UMN 15 NNE MKC 35 ENE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 SW CGX 15 ESE TOL 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE CRE CAE 20 NNW ATL 25 SW AUO 30 NW PFN ...CONT... 20 WNW FMY 30 NNE GNV 15 NE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 25 NE IPT 25 ENE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE ENEWD THRU OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SURFACE LOW SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES IT BY TO THE E. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL/NRN KY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO WRN TN/OH VALLEYS TO THE S OF WARM FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE S/WV TROUGH AND VIGOROUS MID/UPPER JET HAS RESULTED IN LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WRN OH VALLEY SWWD INTO AR. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN ELEVATED...HOWEVER BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E/W ACROSS AR THAT ARE SURFACE BASED. EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG ARE AVAILABLE. MUCH OF AFTERNOON PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS AR INTO NRN MS AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND SHIFTS GRADUALLY EWD. CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS THAT IS SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FURTHER N TO THE E OF SURFACE LOW...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND ACTIVE SEVERE POSSIBLY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING IN THE CLEAR SLOT MOVES ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE E OF THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED SOME. THE DRY LINE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN AR SWWD INTO NERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARMING IN WAKE OF THE S/WV TROUGH AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AREA. HOWEVER WITH LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS FAR S AS SWRN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 18 19:57:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 14:57:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410181959.i9IJxIu02347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181957 SWODY1 SPC AC 181955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLH 10 SSE TXK 25 ESE FSM 25 SSE SGF 10 E JEF 25 S SPI 25 NW HUF 40 E BMG 45 NE SDF 30 E SDF 55 E BWG 30 NNW CHA 30 SE HSV 50 ENE GWO 45 WSW GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA ...CONT... 45 NW ABR 45 E ABR 25 W BKX 35 W YKN 25 NW EAR 15 SSE IML 40 SW DEN 35 W MTJ 40 ENE U24 35 N OGD 20 SSE PIH 20 SW MQM 40 NE WEY 40 SE 4BQ 35 ENE MBG 45 NW ABR ...CONT... 30 SW GLS 55 E CLL 50 SE DAL 30 W PRX 30 NW PGO 15 NW UMN 15 NNE MKC 35 ENE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 SW CGX 15 ESE TOL 40 SSE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE CRE CAE 20 NNW ATL 25 SW AUO 30 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ERI 25 NE IPT 25 ENE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-LWR MS AND LWR OH VLYS... ...LWR-MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE MID MS VLY REGION. MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT...LATEST MESOANALYSIS/VWP/PROFILERS SHOW A VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE. NONETHELESS...AIR MASS HAS BECOME BUOYANT WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE WITH MINIMAL CINH. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTRL/ERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS SWELLING CUMULUS ACROSS AREAS BETWEEN TBN-STL. THESE WILL LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS AND MOVE INTO SRN IL AND FAR W KY LATER THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED... CONSIDERABLE SPEED SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER IS QUITE STRONG AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...ATOP THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL FROM CNTRL IL INTO SWRN IND THROUGH THE EVENING. TO THE SW...LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUPPORTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...THOUGH THE AIR MASS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON TSTMS DEVELOPING SW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DRIVE TSTM INITIATION...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK AS FAR S AS THE LA BORDER. THE ETA REMAINS EMPHATIC ON DEVELOPING TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING...EVIDENTLY IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NERN TX INTO SRN AR. BUT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR ACTUALLY SHOWS INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IF TSTMS INDEED DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 10/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 00:57:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2004 19:57:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410190059.i9J0xEu16316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190056 SWODY1 SPC AC 190055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLH 15 SSW ELD 30 WNW ELD 45 ENE TXK 30 SW ARG 45 N POF 10 SW ALN 35 SE SPI 25 WNW HUF 25 ENE BMG 40 SW LUK 10 SE LEX 40 WSW LOZ 45 ENE HSV 20 SSW CBM 45 S GLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW CRE 20 SSE CAE 15 WSW LGC 30 W LUL 10 SSW POE LFK 10 ENE TYR 45 ENE PRX 30 E PGO 50 ESE HRO 45 ESE TBN 35 WNW STL 30 ESE IRK 55 W LWD 20 ENE OMA 55 NNE OMA 15 SSW FOD 15 W MLI 30 SSE CGX 45 SE DTW 15 SW JHW 30 ENE IPT 10 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW HLC 35 ENE GLD 10 E BFF 15 SE 81V 55 S GDV 30 NW DIK 30 NNW BIS 20 SW JMS 30 SW ATY 20 WSW OLU 55 SSW HSI 10 WSW HLC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW AST 25 WNW EUG 25 E CEC 50 S EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...MID MS VALLEY/TN AND OH VALLEYS... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM NRN LA EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ERN AR...SE MO AND SRN IL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN IL AND SE MO WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS THE STRONGEST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 55 TO 65 KT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...03Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN KY SHOW LARGE LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING BELOW 800 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 500 TO 700 METERS WILL RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS SUPERCELLS TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND NWRN TN THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH STORMS THAT TRACK EWD IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT IN FAR SRN IL AND NEAR THE OH RIVER IN WRN KY. ALSO...STORMS THAT TRACK EWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN TN SHOULD HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY NEAR CELL MERGERS. IF A NEARLY SOLID LINE CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS KY...TN AND AR...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 05:56:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 00:56:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410190558.i9J5wRu29288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190555 SWODY1 SPC AC 190554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOB 10 SW JAN 45 S GLH 35 SSE PBF 50 NE PBF 30 N MEM 55 NNE MKL 30 S OWB 40 E BMG 20 WNW LUK 40 SSE LUK 35 W JKL 45 SSW TYS 20 NE ATL 25 ENE CSG 30 N DHN 40 SW TOI 55 NNE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25 ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S MHE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 50 SSE DLS 70 SE BNO 30 NNE EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GLS 50 NNE HOU 60 NNE LIT 10 SE SLO 20 NW IND 30 N DAY 30 WSW HLG 20 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...TN VALLEY/MS/AL/GA... MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN LA ACROSS NRN MS INTO WRN KY. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND THE DAY 2 SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LIKELY ACROSS THE WRN TN VALLEY BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...SFC TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 80S F YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NRN MS IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STORM INITIATION APPEARS MOSTLY LIKELY ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN NRN MS AND SRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION BUT STORMS STILL SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS NRN MS AND AL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY ACROSS NW MS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MOVE SSEWD DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IF SFC TEMPS CAN WARM MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS ACROSS MS AND AL...A COLD POOL COULD DEVELOP WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NW MS...AL AND NW GA. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MS AND AL. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET...REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN OH VALLEY AND NRN TN... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT ACROSS SRN IND...KY AND TN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 12:39:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 07:39:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410191241.i9JCfCu09784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191239 SWODY1 SPC AC 191237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20 WNW MLU 25 WNW ELD 15 NE HOT 15 W ARG 20 SSE CGI 10 E PAH 40 WSW HOP 35 E MKL MSL 40 N GAD 20 E GAD 30 SW ANB 15 WSW 0A8. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MHE 30 SE BUB 25 ESE LBF 30 E SNY BFF 55 SW RAP 20 SSE REJ 10 NNW MBG 25 SE ABR 30 S MHE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HQM 70 SE BNO 30 NNE EKO 40 WNW ELY 65 ESE TPH 40 NW NID 25 NW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 40 S TYR 45 NW HOT 20 NNW MDH 20 WSW IND 10 NE DAY 20 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MS VALLEY TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST... HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NCNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WLY COMPONENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...ALTHOUGH 850MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...ONGOING E-W MCS MAY NOT PROGRESS SIGNIFICANTLY SWD BUT RATHER STALL ACROSS NRN MS/AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM OVER AR/MS MAY HOWEVER AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG ERN-MOST EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. LATEST THINKING IS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NRN LA INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/MS WHERE STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. E-W BAND OF STORMS ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING MAY NOT PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE ORIENTATION TO THE MEAN WIND. HOWEVER...LATER DEVELOPMENT COULD FOCUS ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 15:52:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 10:52:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410191554.i9JFsQu08983@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191549 SWODY1 SPC AC 191547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CEW 35 S LUL 30 SW MLU 25 WNW ELD 20 ESE LIT 30 SW JBR 20 SSE CGI 10 E PAH 40 WSW HOP 40 N MSL 15 S HSV 30 WSW ATL 25 W MCN 25 WNW MGR 20 ESE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM IML 45 WSW SNY 45 W BFF 40 E 81V REJ 30 SSE Y22 45 NNE PIR 9V9 ANW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL OLM RDM 90 SSE BNO 45 SW OWY OWY 50 NW TWF SUN IDA RKS 50 E VEL GJT CNY MLF 65 W P38 70 SE BIH NID 35 S BFL 10 WNW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NW BPT LFK CLL 45 SSE SAT HDO JCT BWD FTW PRX HOT ARG CGI MDH SLO MTO LAF FWA FDY MFD PIT LBE HGR ILG ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP TROUGH DIGGING SWD ALONG PAC COAST WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OR/NRN CA COAST. DOWNSTREAM THERE IS A RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM SWRN U.S. EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES. MID/UPPER SPEED MAX SRN PLAINS THIS AM WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD GULF STATES TO THE S OF CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ...LWR MS VALLEY AND GULF STATES... APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER SPEED MAX WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE UPPER DIFFLUENCE GULF STATES THRU THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE NOW VERY RICH GULF AIR MASS ONSHORE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG SPREADING EWD ACROSS AL INTO SWRN GA...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MS RIVER TO WRN GA. SFC-1KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 20KTS NEAR GULF COAST TO GREATER THAN 30KTS INLAND GULF STATES PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL GA/NRN AL INTO SWRN TN...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MORE DISCRETE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER WIND MAX AND CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. ...NRN/CENTRAL CA... WITH PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL CA THIS AM...THERE SHOULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND HEATING POTENTIAL E OF COASTAL RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR THEN OTHER PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM UP TO 400MB AND FAVORABLY STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN....SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INCLUDING ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON IF IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ..HALES/EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 19 19:45:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 14:45:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410191946.i9JJkvu13177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191943 SWODY1 SPC AC 191942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CEW 40 WNW MOB 25 N HEZ 35 ENE ELD 55 WSW MEM 30 SW DYR 40 SW PAH 15 SSE PAH 25 SW HOP 35 NE HSV 25 NE CSG MCN 20 NW MGR 20 SE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW GLD 45 ESE FCL 45 W BFF 40 E 81V REJ 30 SSE Y22 45 NNE PIR 9V9 25 SE LBF 35 WNW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL OLM RDM 65 ENE BNO SUN IDA RKS GJT CNY 65 W P38 70 SE BIH NID 35 S BFL 10 WNW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NW BPT LFK CLL 35 S AUS 40 SSE JCT 35 ENE SJT 15 NW FTW 45 SE PRX HOT CGI SLO LAF FWA MFD LBE HGR ILG ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS... ...SERN CONUS... STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO GA / THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS ERN AL / CENTRAL GA...WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AS 60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MS ESEWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AND SRN AL...WITHIN AREAS COVERED BY ONGOING TORNADO WATCHES. BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...YIELDING MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS -- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES -- WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. ...NRN CA... TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN CA AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO INHIBIT HEATING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE BAY AREA INTO THE SACRAMENTO / NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS GIVEN DRYING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY JUST OFF THE CA COAST. WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LIMITED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE...STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD PERSISTING ACROSS THIS AREA WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF CONDITIONAL / LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 10/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 00:45:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 19:45:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410200046.i9K0kiu26174@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200044 SWODY1 SPC AC 200042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW PNS 20 NNW MOB 40 SW LUL 35 NNE MCB 30 SW JAN 20 NW JAN 40 N JAN 50 NNW MEI 20 ESE MGM 40 NNE DHN 25 NNE MAI 15 SE MAI 15 NE PFN 15 NNW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SNY 20 SW BFF 55 E DGW 30 WSW RAP 45 NE RAP 35 W PIR 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW ANW 20 NNW LBF 30 E SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UIL 55 ESE OLM 20 E DLS 30 WSW RDM 45 NNE LMT 65 E 4LW 70 W OWY 30 SE BYI 45 SE MLD 50 W VEL U28 50 WNW 4HV 45 SSW U31 60 NNW BIH FAT 10 NW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GLS 45 SE LFK 20 ESE ELD CGI 25 SSW HUF 30 WNW DAY 20 SE HLG 30 ESE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL ERN MS AND SRN AL... ...SE MS/SRN AL... A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM CNTRL MS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. ...WRN KY AND NRN KY/SW TN... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WRN/NRN KY AND SW TN. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES NWD FROM TN AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 04:58:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 19 Oct 2004 23:58:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410200459.i9K4xgu31744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200457 SWODY1 SPC AC 200456 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 10 NE RBL 25 ESE SVE 30 E WMC 35 SSE OWY 30 NW BYI 45 ENE SUN 35 NNW IDA 45 NE IDA 20 W JAC 30 WNW BPI 50 WSW PUC 45 SE SGU 20 ESE EED SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS 15 SW TYR 40 ENE PRX 45 E PGO 55 NW LIT 15 W DYR 55 SSE PAH 45 W LUK CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 NW GSO 25 NW SOP 20 WNW GSB 50 W ECG 30 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS SRN AR EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL MS AND SRN AL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THIS AREA SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND A WEAK CAPPING SHOULD KEEP STORM COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE ALONG OLD LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. A MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 12:41:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 07:41:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410201244.i9KCidu31279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201240 SWODY1 SPC AC 201238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 10 NE RBL 25 ESE SVE 30 E WMC 35 SSE OWY 30 NW BYI 45 ENE SUN 35 NNW IDA 45 NE IDA 20 W JAC 30 WNW BPI 50 WSW PUC 45 SE SGU 20 ESE EED SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS 15 SW TYR 40 ENE PRX 45 E PGO 55 NW LIT 15 W DYR 55 SSE PAH 45 W LUK CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 NW GSO 25 NW SOP 20 WNW GSB 50 W ECG 30 NE ORF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF STATES... UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...THEN SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSED REGIONS OF ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS RETURNED TO THE GULF COAST STATES WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE AOA 70F. THIS AIRMASS WILL NEED LITTLE ENCOURAGEMENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION FROM AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE APPEARS TO REFLECT A ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY AID INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROVE ACCURATE FOR THIS REGION...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. MARGINAL DEEP CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE SUSTAINED ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT. ...ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SWWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING ZONE OF WAA OVER THE NRN PLAINS...BUT REMAIN THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DOMINANT SFC RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 16:30:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 11:30:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410201632.i9KGW5u22440@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201628 SWODY1 SPC AC 201627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PSX 30 SSW AUS 20 ESE ACT 30 NNE GGG 35 NNW ELD 50 NE PBF 15 W DYR 20 ESE PAH 45 W LUK CMH 10 N HLG 50 W MRB 35 WSW GSO 40 WSW SOP 15 SSE FAY 35 ESE RWI 15 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 25 NE RBL 20 ESE SVE 30 WSW WMC 40 NNE WMC 80 WNW OWY 45 SSE BNO 45 NE BNO 35 ESE BKE 25 NNW SUN 60 ENE SUN 30 NNE JAC 40 NNE BPI 50 NNE PUC 30 W 4HV 45 NW GCN 20 E EED 10 S SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WITH STRONG TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SEWD OVER CA...DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE INCREASING RIDGING CENTRAL CONUS. UPR LOW CENTER INITIALLY SFO BAY AREA WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN NV WHILE A VORT CENTER NOTED ON WV IMAGERY W OF BAY AREA DROPS SEWD TO MOVE INLAND VICINITY CA/BAJA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS WWD FROM NC ACROSS TN VALLEY THEN TO N TX. IN THE WEST A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NV CROSSES COAST JUST W OF SAN WITH FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INLAND AREAS OF GULF STATES THIS AM...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME QUITE SMALL. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY STORM ORGANIZATION. FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN CA. THE LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS COASTAL SRN CA WILL END SHORTLY AFTER 17Z AS FRONT PASSES INLAND. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND THRU THE PERIOD. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 20 19:29:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 14:29:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410201930.i9KJUru23650@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201928 SWODY1 SPC AC 201927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W RRT 10 ESE FAR 40 N ATY 30 S ABR 35 N PIR 50 S Y22 35 W Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HOU 30 SE CLL 35 W LFK 40 ENE SHV 25 WNW GLH 20 NNE MEM 45 WSW HOP 15 ENE BWG 40 WNW LUK 20 SW HLG 25 SSE MGW 10 E PSK 15 WSW HKY 25 SSW CLT 35 NW FLO 35 N CRE 10 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 25 NE RBL 20 ESE SVE 30 WSW WMC 40 NNE WMC 80 WNW OWY 45 SSE BNO 45 NE BNO 35 ESE BKE 25 NNW SUN 60 ENE SUN 30 NNE JAC 40 NNE BPI 50 NNE PUC 30 W 4HV 45 NW GCN 20 E EED 10 S SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ALONG THE W COAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS / THE MS VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY INVOF COLD POOL MOVING SEWD ACROSS CA / NV. IN THE EAST...ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...ALTHOUGH MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AL / GA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WEST AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IN EITHER AREA. ..GOSS.. 10/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 00:47:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 20 Oct 2004 19:47:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410210048.i9L0mlu14266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210046 SWODY1 SPC AC 210044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE GPT 50 ESE MCB 10 SW MCB 30 ESE ESF 35 NNW ESF 20 SE ELD 30 SSW PBF 20 N GLH 30 SSW UOX TUP 50 S MSL 30 W AUO 15 N VLD 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S UKI 55 NNE SAC 35 ENE WMC 30 W TWF 25 NW MLD EVW 45 NW 4HV 40 NNW PRC 45 SE YUM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL AND PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA. MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER WRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...AND SCATTERED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SERN U.S....A LARGE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PERSISTS S OF BACKDOOR FRONT LOCATED OVER GA AND S OF STATIONARY FRONT FROM SRN AR THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED. ...SWRN U.S.... ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM CA THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AREA...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 05:31:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 00:31:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410210533.i9L5XIu28227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210531 SWODY1 SPC AC 210529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 30 WNW JMS 40 S P24 40 SSE ISN 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU 55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO 40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN OK EWD INTO SRN AR WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. BY TOMORROW EVENING...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY ERN NEB SEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND INTO NRN AR. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES NWD. THOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS 40 KT...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO BELOW 30 KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. NEVERTHELESS...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...W TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO SRN/CNTRL KS... MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT INTO W TX THURSDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BACKS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING...AND MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD UNDERNEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE...AND THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM W TX THROUGH W OK. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH MAY ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. ..DIAL.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 05:33:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 00:33:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410210535.i9L5Z3u29134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210532 SWODY1 SPC AC 210530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SSW GFK 30 WNW JMS 40 S P24 40 SSE ISN 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU 55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO 40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE FRONT FROM SRN OK EWD INTO SRN AR WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. BY TOMORROW EVENING...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY ERN NEB SEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND INTO NRN AR. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES NWD. THOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS 40 KT...THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO BELOW 30 KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE. NEVERTHELESS...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...W TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO SRN/CNTRL KS... MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT INTO W TX THURSDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BACKS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE HEATING...AND MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD UNDERNEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG RETREATING DRYLINE...AND THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM W TX THROUGH W OK. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH MAY ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 12:46:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 07:46:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410211248.i9LCmWu13752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211244 SWODY1 SPC AC 211242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU 55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO 40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... MARITIME TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES ITS NWWD RETURN ACROSS TX/OK AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SHARPENING DRY LINE FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO WRN OK. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIATING TSTM DEVELOPMENT...PARTLY DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO PERSIST UNTIL LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK. THIS INCREASE MAY ALLOW FOR STORM MERGERS AND CLUSTERING THAT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD NEWD ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...1000-1500 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE...MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. ...IA... LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED SOURCE OF MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHERE SLOW MOISTENING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED AROUND 850MB MAY YIELD CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. IF THIS EVOLVES AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN SUFFICIENT FORCING MAY NOT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD...SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT RISK WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 16:11:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 11:11:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410211612.i9LGCwu18241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211603 SWODY1 SPC AC 211601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW HUM 20 SW HEZ 10 NE GLH 25 SE UOX 20 N BHM 40 NW MCN 25 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 10 SE GDP 35 N HOB 10 SSE AMA 25 E LBL 20 E GRI BKX 35 NNE ATY 45 NE STC 40 NNW VOK 20 SSW RFD 35 NNW PIA 10 S UIN 25 ENE FYV 45 SE FSM 25 NNE SHV 45 ENE CLL 10 WSW AUS 20 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE LGB 30 SSE DAG 15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW LVS 20 WNW TCS 25 SE FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH THAT DROPPED SEWD OFF CA COAST OVERNIGHT NOW TURNING EWD AND WILL CROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA INTO AZ BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... MOIST GULF AIR MASS OVER SRN PLAINS IS SPREADING NWD AS THE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASES. BY THIS EVENING DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING THRU THE 60S AS FAR N AS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH LOW 70S INTO NWRN TX AND OK. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM SPREADING EWD ACROSS PLAINS TONIGHT...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THRU THE PERIOD. THE STRONG RIDGE/SUBSIDING AIR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE SWRN U.S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING INITIALLY NEAR THE DRY LINE IN WRN TX WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST AND AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING TO 40-50 KT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD THRU THE PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND SPREAD NEWD THRU WRN OK TO KS. A FEW ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR SEVERE LEVELS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. ...AZ... VERY IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. LARGE AREA OF PCPN IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN AZ...WITH LIMITED HEATING AVAILABLE TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/ERN AZ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TODAY WITH AND BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF PCPN BAND AND WITH THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 21 20:01:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 15:01:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410212002.i9LK2Yu06504@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211959 SWODY1 SPC AC 211957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 15 ENE MCB 25 SSW GWO 20 NW CBM 25 ESE BHM 25 WNW TLH 35 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 10 SE GDP 35 NNE HOB 25 E AMA 35 S DDC 35 WSW BIE 10 SSE HON 50 SSW AXN 60 SSE DLH 50 NE EAU 10 SW LNR MLI 10 S UIN SGF 25 E MKO 20 SSW ADM 20 SW BWD 20 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 30 SSE DAG 25 SSW DRA 35 SW P38 40 NNW 4HV 20 WNW EGE 35 SE ASE 30 ENE ALS 35 NNW LVS 20 WNW TCS 25 SE FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NEWD INTO WRN OK... WEAK WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF W TX NEAR DRYLINE...WHICH IS NOW SHARPENING FROM ROUGHLY CDS TO MAF. WITH ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MEANWHILE...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH...STORM INTENSITY MAY LIKEWISE INCREASE SOMEWHAT. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...S CENTRAL AZ... VORT MAX WITHIN BASE OF LARGE MID-LEVEL WRN U.S. TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF THE SRN CA / NRN BAJA COAST ATTM...WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOW EXTENDING ACROSS WRN AZ NWD INTO PARTS OF NV AND UT. JUST AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION / CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ AND NWD INTO CENTRAL AZ...DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO HEAT INTO THE 70 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL COOLING IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER W...SOME MINIMAL AMOUNT OF COOLING ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANY APPRECIABLE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION GIVEN GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...IF A FEW STORMS COULD ORGANIZE -- EVEN BRIEFLY...STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS COULD EASILY DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 5% WIND PROBABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL / S CENTRAL AZ FOR THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING BEFORE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM MITIGATES ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 10/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 00:52:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2004 19:52:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410220054.i9M0sBu13940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220052 SWODY1 SPC AC 220050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM 45 E MCB 40 WNW MEI 20 SW TCL 15 NNE MGM 25 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 35 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 40 N LAS 20 ENE PUC ASE 45 NNE SAF 25 SW 4CR 20 W ROW 45 NNW HOB 35 W HUT 25 NE OMA 30 WNW MKT 25 WNW EAU 40 ESE VOK 20 WSW PIA 10 NNW TBN 20 N DUA 35 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN TX AND OK THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO... SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION TONIGHT THROUGH OK...KS AND MO WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION AS WELL AS A GENERAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY DELAY INITIATION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT 2-6 KM SHEAR FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ESPECIALLY FROM WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 06:04:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 01:04:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410220605.i9M65vu30364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220603 SWODY1 SPC AC 220601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ICT 35 ENE OLU 30 ESE 9V9 55 WNW AXN 20 NNW DLH 10 NW EAU 25 S DBQ POF 20 SE TXK 35 W AUS 30 W JCT 30 SSE BGS 35 SSW LTS 30 E ICT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ 45 N EVV 40 E MEM 35 ENE MEI 25 SSW CEW ...CONT... 35 SW GPT 10 NE ESF 20 WNW LFK 50 SE SAT 10 SSE LRD ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 25 WNW MAF 20 NNE CDS 25 ENE P28 25 SE CNK 30 WSW BIE 30 SSW HSI 25 WNW HLC 40 WSW GLD 25 NNE LHX 45 SSW PUB 50 S GUC 20 NW MTJ 45 W CAG 25 NW RWL 40 SE 81V 20 WNW JMS 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 35 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO SERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SWRN MN...IA AND INTO IL WITH A DRYLINE SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME ERN NEB...ERN KS...CNTRL OK AND WRN TX. OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NWD INTO MN AND WI...WHILE THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE OVER ERN NEB AND CONTINUES EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ...SRN PLAINS AND E CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY UNDERNEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER JET NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON . THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR NEAR TRIPLE POINT AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT FROM THE SW. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF EXTREME ERN NEB...SERN SD INTO WRN IA AND SWRN MN. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET AND CONVERGENCE NEAR TRIPLE POINT MAY PROMOTE STORM INITIATION IN THIS REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM NW TX NEWD THROUGH OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTENING...DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM CONVEYOR BELT. ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF W TX INTO WRN AND CNTRL OK. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX...ERN OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY AND MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY INTERCEPT STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEEP SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 12:27:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 07:27:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410221229.i9MCTPu01992@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221225 SWODY1 SPC AC 221224 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP 30 WNW OMA 30 N YKN 55 WNW AXN 30 NNW BRD 40 SW IWD MSN ALN JBR PBF 30 W JCT 30 SSE BGS 35 SSW LTS EMP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ANJ EVV 40 E MEM 35 ENE MEI 25 SSW CEW ...CONT... 35 SW GPT 10 NE ESF 20 WNW LFK 50 SE SAT 10 SSE LRD ...CONT... 75 SW GDP 50 WNW LBB 50 SSW GAG 25 ENE P28 25 SE CNK 30 WSW BIE 30 SSW HSI 25 WNW HLC 40 WSW GLD 25 NNE LHX 45 SSW PUB 50 S GUC 25 W MTJ 45 W CAG RWL 40 SE 81V 20 WNW JMS 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW FMY 35 E ORL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE U.S...WITH SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MEXICAN GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. UPSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM BAJA INTO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS COMPOSED OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. TONGUE OF 60S/70S DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE WEST OF RETREATING EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO WARMTH OF MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET TO THE WEST OF RIDGE AXIS...AREAL COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO EXTENT/INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT TODAY. ...EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA... MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY ...AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING/ STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS HEATED MOIST AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALONG WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORCING PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...LOWER MISSOURI INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TAKES ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS PROGGED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. THOUGH LACK OF HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT STEEPNESS OF LAPSE RATES AND CAPE...FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR NEAR 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS... VERY MOIST AIR WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE OZARK REGION. WHILE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY... MID-LEVEL CAP LIKELY WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HAIL THREAT MAY BE FAIRLY LOW DUE TO HIGH FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO LEVELS. LATER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOLIDIFICATION/SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL BE ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH...BUT MEAN FLOW FIELDS SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ALTHOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS... HEATING/MID-LEVEL COOLING NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 16:30:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 11:30:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410221632.i9MGWBu21899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221629 SWODY1 SPC AC 221628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BIE 30 WSW EAR 35 S ANW 25 NW 9V9 45 WNW AXN 50 SSW DLH MSN ALN 30 SE JBR 40 E ELD 60 WNW COT 50 ENE P07 35 E ICT 20 S BIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 SW PVW 50 SSW P28 10 NE RSL HLC 45 SSW GLD 10 WSW RTN 40 ENE 4SL DRO 25 E GJT 30 NE CAG 50 NNW DGW GFK 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 70 WNW ANJ 20 N SDF 30 SSE MSL 45 NNW GPT 10 NE ESF 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB/S-CENTRAL SD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM NOW LIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND LIKELY SHIFT NWD INTO FAR SERN SD/SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH DRY LINE ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONG MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM SERN SD INTO ERN NEB. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD ACROSS NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SERN MN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE REGION NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MOVE QUICKLY EWD. HOWEVER...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUSPECT OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH STRONG CAPPING AND ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. IN FACT...ETA CONTINUES TO FORECAST LITTLE OR NO QPF TODAY OVER THIS REGION. THIS ASPECT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADING TO A MODERATE...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE LOW CENTER/COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY NEAR WARM FRONT BETWEEN 21Z-00Z AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND DEEP VERTICAL MOTION AIDS IN OVERCOMING CAP. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS REMAIN LINEAR ALONG COLD FRONT. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND BECOMES MORE CAPPED. FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL NEB...STRONG CONVERGENCE AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP SUGGESTING A SHALLOW LINE OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES ESEWD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE HEATING ABATES THIS EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE EWD PUSH TO DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS TX TODAY...WITH 12Z ETA KEEPING H85 WIND SHIFT ALONG A CENTRAL AR TO BIG BEND REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO CENTRAL TX WITH LARGE AREA OF MID 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A H85 DEW POINT NEAR 18C OBSERVED AT DRT THIS MORNING. ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY TOWARDS ERN OK...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THE OZARK REGION/MO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PLUME OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER TX INTO SERN OK AND POSSIBLY AR WHERE STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ALONG WRN EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING NOW IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT...SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/RH IN PLACE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 22 20:01:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 15:01:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410222003.i9MK32u02572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222000 SWODY1 SPC AC 221958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BIE 35 SW EAR 25 WNW BBW 20 W 9V9 55 WNW AXN 50 S DLH MSN 30 NNW SPI 10 N MEM 40 N MLU 45 WSW HDO 50 SW SJT 35 E ICT 25 SE BIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MRF ROW 20 S CVS 25 NNE PVW 15 NNE CDS 50 SSW P28 20 WSW CNK HLC 25 SSE GLD 15 SE LIC 45 SE CYS 45 NNE LAR 45 NE DGW 35 NNW CDR 55 NNW MHN 45 NNE ABR 30 ESE RRT ...CONT... 75 NE MQT 15 SW LEX 20 S HSV 30 N JAN 30 SE MLU 15 WNW LFK 40 WNW NIR 45 SSE LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 10 N MLB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO / UPPER MS VALLEY SWD / SSWWD INTO TX... ...MIDDLE MO / UPPER MS VALLEYS SSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX... DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE -- NOW INDICATED ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MN WITH TIME. WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM TX / LA / MS NWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY..AND CONTINUES ADVECTING SLOWLY NWD IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- W OF MOIST AXIS AND BEHIND BAND OF CLOUDS / CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR / TROPICAL PLUME. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. NONETHELESS...WITH COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EWD / SEWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE / INTENSIFY WITHIN ZONE FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS ERN KS / ERN OK / WRN MO / WRN AR AND THEN SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM...EXPECT TWO MORE ACTIVE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO INCLUDE SERN SD / ERN NEB / IA / SRN MN AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN TX ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. DESPITE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING MOST FAVORABLE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BROAD 60 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE WARM SECTOR / INSTABILITY AXIS WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A VERY LARGE AREA OF FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...DELAYED INITIATION OF STORMS THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT LINEAR ORGANIZATION MAY PREDOMINATE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY THEREFORE BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS. CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE SHIFTING EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OZARKS / ARKLATEX / TX HILL COUNTRY. ..GOSS.. 10/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 01:12:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2004 20:12:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410230114.i9N1EHu31019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230111 SWODY1 SPC AC 230109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LWD 50 W LWD 15 SE OLU 55 SSE 9V9 25 NNW HON 65 SSW FAR 30 N AXN MSP 25 SE ALO 15 ENE LWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 30 E BWD 15 N TPL 30 SSE TPL 65 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNW ANJ 25 SSE AZO 35 SW SDF 25 E TUP 55 NNE HEZ 50 WSW POE 30 NNW VCT LRD ...CONT... 25 SE P07 30 WNW SEP 15 SSE ADM TUL 15 SE EMP 30 SSW MHK RSL 25 W HLC 25 WSW IML 40 ESE AIA VTN 10 WSW ABR 20 NNE FAR 45 WNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB...SD INTO IA AND MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S TX... ...NE NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SW MN... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SERN SD SWWD THROUGH E CNTRL NEB WITH A DRYLINE SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH EXTREME ERN NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL IA AND INTO NE MO. ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SPREADING EWD INTO ERN NEB...ERN SD...AND A FEW CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT JUST N OF SURFACE LOW IN SE SD. HOWEVER...THESE CELLS ARE LIFTING RAPIDLY NWD INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER LOW TOPPED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER E CNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER EXTREME ERN NEB. STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINES. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE LINE WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ...S TX... ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON SRN END OF CONVEYOR BELT OVER SW TX WHERE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY PERSISTS. ...MID MS VALLEY AREA... STORMS PERSIST ALONG ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SW TX NEWD THROUGH MO AND WRN IL. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN STRONG IN THIS AREA...BUT EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY. MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 05:43:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 00:43:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410230545.i9N5jOu14784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230543 SWODY1 SPC AC 230542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLV 20 W MMO 35 NNW MSN 50 NE EAU 20 SSW CMX 75 W ANJ 20 NE TVC 20 NW LAN 30 ESE FWA 20 SSE SDF 30 NE BNA 25 NNE MSL 40 WSW CBM 15 SSE HEZ 35 WSW MLU 45 NW ELD 20 WNW ARG 30 NE BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 30 E NIR 25 S ALI 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 30 SSE ELP 30 WNW GDP 10 ESE INK 50 SSE BGS 25 ESE ABI 10 E FTW 25 W FSM 30 SSE SGF 10 ESE JEF 30 SSW BRL 20 SE CID 55 NNE ALO 35 NNW RST 30 WSW MSP 45 E BKX 20 W BKX 50 NE ABR 10 ENE GFK 20 WNW RRT ...CONT... 55 NNW ERI 10 WNW HLG BKW 35 WNW HKY 25 SSW AHN 35 N PNS 35 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 25 WNW GTF 35 SSE 3HT 35 NNW JAC 30 SW SUN 60 SSW BOI 50 NE 4LW 35 N MFR 20 NNW OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS THROUGH OH VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY. NRN MOST VORT MAX WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN END VORT MAX SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MS AND UPPER OH VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN WI SWWD THROUGH ERN IL AND NW AR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT. ...MIDDLE MS THROUGH LOWER OH VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEYS SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...LOW LEVEL SELY TRAJECTORIES WILL REMAIN FROM MODIFIED CP AIR. THE UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...LIMITED SURFACE HEATING AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...MEAGER INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND RESULTING SEVERE THREAT. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST IN NARROW CORRIDOR IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND E OF COLD FRONT WHERE ADVANCING DRYSLOT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SURFACE HEATING ONCE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GIVEN EXPECTED SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN DRY SLOT REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VALLEY PORTION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION MAY BE FROM NRN IL THROUGH WI WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY EXTEND TROUGH A DEEPER LAYER. FARTHER S...THREAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH WRN PORTION OF TN VALLEY... STORMS ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO SERN TX AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZES. STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT REGION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP...EXPECTED SHALLOW FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT OVERALL INITIATION POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. ..DIAL/JEWELL.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 12:22:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 07:22:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410231223.i9NCNXu06733@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231221 SWODY1 SPC AC 231219 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0719 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BLV 35 ESE MLI LNR 20 NNE LSE 30 WSW RHI 40 NNW GRB 10 SSW MTW 25 E MKE 15 SSE SBN IND 25 NW SDF BWG CBM 30 WNW HEZ 10 N SHV HOT 20 NW ARG 10 WSW BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N ERI PIT 20 NE BKW HKY 20 SSE AHN 35 N PNS 35 WSW PNS ...CONT... 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 40 WNW SJT 30 ESE ABI 10 E FTW 25 W FSM 30 SSE SGF 10 ESE JEF 30 SSW BRL 20 SE CID 55 NNE ALO 35 NNW RST 30 WSW MSP 30 WSW RWF 15 ENE BKX 65 N ATY 35 WNW BJI 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 15 W GTF 25 SW LWT 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 50 ESE BIL 40 NW JAC 30 SW SUN 60 SSW BOI 50 NE 4LW 25 NW MFR 50 NNW 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGING IS STILL EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. UPSTREAM ...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BOTH FEATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN ITS FORECAST EVOLUTION...AS IT PROGRESSES INTO/ THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN INTO A COUPLE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS...WITH NORTHERN PORTION CONTINUING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SOUTHERN PORTION ACCELERATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING OF BOTH MID/UPPER RIDGE...AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE. DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER...APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF FRONT...TONGUE OF 60F+ DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH COOL/DRY ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE RIDGE SLOW TO WEAKEN...AND FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MOIST TONGUE WILL GRADUALLY NARROW THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...AND APPEARS TO LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING AND SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AS FORECAST BY MODELS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS COOLING/LIFT NEAR UPPER COLD TROUGH SPREADS INTO REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. FORCING NEAR FRONT MAY ULTIMATELY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF NARROW SQUALL LINE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER SOUTH...SEPARATE AREA OF STRONGER FORCING MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE BASED IN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F+ DEW POINTS. WHILE CAPE MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WARM/MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY LINE BEFORE IT WEAKENS/SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES LATER TONIGHT. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 15:55:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 10:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410231557.i9NFvNu09844@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231551 SWODY1 SPC AC 231549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW MMO 25 N LSE 40 E BRD 15 ENE HIB 35 NNE RHI 10 SSW MTW 10 SSE CGX 35 SW MMO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 25 WNW SJT 20 NW TPL 45 NW TYR 20 N HRO 35 ENE VIH 25 E UIN 30 S DBQ 45 SSW LSE 35 NNW RST 40 SW STC 55 E FAR 20 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 NNW JHW 35 NE EKN 30 SSE ROA 25 ESE CLT 40 ESE AHN 30 SSW AUO 35 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 55 NNE 3DU 55 ENE HLN 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 40 S SHR 25 W LND 25 ESE PIH 50 WSW SUN 40 SE BNO 55 SE EUG 15 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS. NARROW AXIS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... POCKET OF VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE SAMPLED SOUNDING AT MSP THIS MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG AS AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL WI THROUGH 21Z. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER...AND WEST OF WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NNEWD INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI AND NERN WI. SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...SHOULD INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... WEAK LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MORE LIMITED SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 60-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. THOUGH POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF ACTIVITY SPREADING STEADILY EWD...AND ALSO AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS...EXPECT ANY ENSUING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ANY STORMS ORGANIZE INTO SMALL LINES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 23 19:57:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 14:57:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410231959.i9NJx5u29121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231956 SWODY1 SPC AC 231954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE JVL 10 NNW OSH 20 NE AUW 35 SW IWD 50 NNW IWD 45 SW CMX 20 ENE GRB 40 SSE MTW 10 NE MKE 15 NE JVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLE 25 NE ZZV 25 S CRW 45 SSW TYS 30 E ANB 30 ENE MCB 35 SE HUM ...CONT... 25 S CRP 35 WNW MFE ...CONT... 65 S MRF 30 S MRF 30 SSW FST 25 WNW SJT 20 NW TPL 40 WSW TXK 15 SSE UNO 45 SSW BLV 20 E BRL 25 NNE MSN CWA 65 NNE EAU 70 SSW DLH 30 ENE BRD INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 55 NNE 3DU 55 ENE HLN 70 NNE BIL 65 ENE BIL 40 S SHR 25 W LND 25 ESE PIH 50 WSW SUN 40 SE BNO 55 SE EUG 15 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN UPPER MI / ERN WI... ...WI WRN UPPER MI... NARROW / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN WI ATTM AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE WARM FRONT. BROKEN / ARCING LINE OF ROTATING / LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS ERN WI...WHERE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS. COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELD WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO REGION OF MORE MARGINAL / ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ...IL SWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY... BROADER WARM SECTOR EXISTS SWD ACROSS IL / IN AND INTO THE LOWER OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS. DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...WEAK LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK / DISORGANIZED DESPITE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER / LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE AS LIMITED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THREAT TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 10/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 04:48:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 23 Oct 2004 23:48:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410240449.i9O4nQu31095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240447 SWODY1 SPC AC 240445 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 25 W MFE ...CONT... 40 SE DMN 30 SW ALM ROW 10 S PVW 65 WSW SPS 25 SW ADM 20 WSW MLC 35 SE FSM 15 NE HOT 45 WSW PBF 10 W MLU 15 NNE HEZ 25 ESE LUL 50 NNW PNS 10 WNW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WRN STATES SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...ADVECTING WARMTH/MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO TAP INTO SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO CNTRL TX SUNDAY NIGHT. TSTMS ARE APT TO INCREASE...PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX TO AR. ...CNTRL TX TO SW AR... AS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKS IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN STATES TROUGH...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD FROM MEXICO OVER MOST OF TX SUNDAY. THIS MAY HAMPER INSOLATION...BUT RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH 6.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS CNTRL TX. THOUGH ISOLD TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WEAK FRONT...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AND PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE NOT HIGH. GIVEN A SUSTAINED STORM...HOWEVER ...THE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN AN INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME FROM CNTRL/NRN TX INTO SWRN AR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE/SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND ONLY ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 12:25:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 07:25:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410241227.i9OCR5u14939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241224 SWODY1 SPC AC 241222 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0722 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE DMN 30 SW ALM ROW 10 S PVW 65 WSW SPS 25 SW ADM 20 WSW MLC 35 SE FSM 15 NE HOT 45 WSW PBF 20 SSW MLU 10 WSW LUL 35 SSW TOI 20 NE MAI 15 ESE PFN ...CONT... 45 S CRP 25 W MFE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MID/UPPER RIDGE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD/ EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. CONTINUED EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT INTO THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. FRONT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE OCCLUSION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TODAY. ...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... AHEAD OF FRONT...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH BROADER SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME HAS TEMPORARILY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. THIS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MIDDAY...AS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. COOL/DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING ATLANTIC COAST SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA. ...TEXAS... FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S SOUTH OF DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS. THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE RESTRICTED BY CLOUD COVER...MODELS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN INSTABILITY...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. JET CURRENTLY CURVES IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ARC OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE GULF STATES...AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF BAJA. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER WARM/MOIST...ISOLATED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...BUT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH...FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK TOPPING BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 16:33:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 11:33:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410241634.i9OGYju24286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241630 SWODY1 SPC AC 241628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 15 N DMN ROW 50 WNW CDS 20 WSW OKC 20 SW FSM 30 SSW HOT 20 SSW MLU 35 ESE MCB 10 SSW PNS ...CONT... 45 S CRP 25 W MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BFL 20 SSW MER 35 NNE SAC 25 ESE SVE 20 SE WMC 35 ESE EKO 40 SW DPG 30 NNE MLF 35 SE MLF 20 E SGU 55 E NID 20 W BFL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/SWRN TX WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AND AID FOCUSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED LAPSE RATES DUE TO PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX AND FAR SWRN LA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD REGION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MX. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MINIMIZED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NRN TX HAS BECOME SSELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SERN CO. THEREFORE COVERAGE OF DEEP SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL TX. WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6-6.5 DEG C/KM DUE TO MOIST SWLY FLOW AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. THEREFORE...DESPITE 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SWRN TX NEWD INTO SCENTRAL OK... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT PERMIAN BASIN...AHEAD OF NRN MX SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AGAIN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ABOVE RETREATING WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN TX ACROSS NCENTRAL TX INTO FAR SCENTRAL OK. SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO SOMEWHAT COLDER/DRIER MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. WEAK CLOUD BEARING SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS WILL PRECLUDE GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 24 19:53:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 14:53:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410241955.i9OJtCu27125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241953 SWODY1 SPC AC 241951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 SW HOB 30 ESE CDS 45 NE OKC 40 S CNU 20 N UMN 40 ESE HRO 20 WSW PBF 30 NNE BTR 35 SW GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BFL 20 SSW MER 35 NNE SAC 25 ESE SVE 20 SE WMC 35 ESE EKO 40 SW DPG 30 NNE MLF 35 SE MLF 20 E SGU 55 E NID 20 W BFL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SWD INTO TX LAST NIGHT -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LFK NNWWD ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX INTO CENTRAL OK -- WILL CONTINUE RETREATING NEWD WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WARM SECTOR IN BROAD / WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LIMITED HEATING CONTINUES E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY DRT TO SEP...WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE... RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH A FEW MULTICELL / WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL...UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY ATTM. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 2360. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 10/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 00:48:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 19:48:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410250049.i9P0nru25453@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250046 SWODY1 SPC AC 250044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF BGS SPS 30 E MLC 45 ESE FSM 10 WSW LIT PBF 50 ENE ELD 15 E MLU 25 WSW MCB 35 SSE GPT ...CONT... 10 W GLS 15 WNW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SCNTRL TX INTO WCNTRL LA... WEAK SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND HEATING PROVED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL TX TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO AR/LA LATER THIS EVENING. STRONGEST TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD THROUGH ECNTRL TX INTO WCNTRL LA ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXISTS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS. FARTHER SW...TSTMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING INTO SCNTRL TX TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKENING GIVEN PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC/18Z ETA SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N IN NERN TX INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR IS LOW. EVEN IF TSTMS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS. ..RACY.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 04:37:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 24 Oct 2004 23:37:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410250438.i9P4ciu06463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250436 SWODY1 SPC AC 250434 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 40 NW PDX 25 N MFR 20 S MHS 55 NNE SAC 10 WNW SCK MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 25 SSE BTR 40 SE POE 25 NNE HOU 45 N VCT 30 S SAT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 25 ENE PHX 30 ESE FLG 40 SE PGA 60 NNE BCE 35 NE U24 SLC 45 WNW RKS 45 NNW RWL 45 S DGW 20 SW FCL 60 W COS 50 SSE ALS 20 NNW LVS 30 ESE LVS 30 ENE TCC 25 SE LBL 30 SSW ICT 25 SW FNB 40 SW FOD CID 15 NW PIA 45 W MDH 20 WNW MKL 25 E BHM 35 E DHN 20 S TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OCCUR MONDAY. JET ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK INTO THE WRN STATES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MOST OF THE ERN STATES. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...A SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL CARRY A DISTURBANCE FROM SRN BAJA ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING MONDAY. A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THESE TROUGHS WITH PROSPECTS FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS. ...SRN PLAINS... PRIMARY WARM FRONT THAT WAS TEMPORARILY DELAYED FROM RETURNING NWD BY SUNDAY'S CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE INTO NRN TX ON MONDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW/UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT AVAILABILITY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...BUT COMBINATION OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND QUESTIONS ON MAGNITUDE OF HEATING WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW. MEANWHILE...STRONGER HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AUGMENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SWRN TX HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE. MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. BUT...POOR MID-HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT RISKS FOR HAIL WILL BE LOW. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AS WELL. 00Z GFS/ETA DISAGREE ON WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/PCPN WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT. 21Z SPC SREF IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ETA AND HAS BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWED. ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD FROM SWRN TX INTO OK...AR AND PARTS OF MO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF BOTH THE SUB-TROPICAL AND NRN STREAM DISTURBANCES. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN POINTS FARTHER SW AND GIVEN INFLUX OF 12-14C H85 DEW POINTS AND AMPLE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 12:58:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 07:58:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410251300.i9PD00u07774@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251257 SWODY1 SPC AC 251255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 40 NW PDX 25 N MFR 20 S MHS 55 NNE SAC 10 WNW SCK MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 25 SSE BTR 45 SE POE 40 NW BPT 45 S CLL 30 SSE SAT 25 NE COT 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 30 ENE PHX 30 ESE FLG 40 SE PGA 60 NNE BCE 20 NW U24 SLC 45 WNW RKS 50 NNW RWL 50 SSW DGW 20 SW FCL 60 W COS 50 SSE ALS 20 NNW LVS 30 ESE LVS 30 ENE TCC 35 ESE LBL 15 S HUT 20 SW FNB 55 ENE OMA 30 SSE FOD 10 ENE CID 25 NW PIA 10 SW PIA 45 W MDH 20 WNW MKL 25 E BHM 35 E DHN 20 S TLH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN OK/WRN AR/NE TX... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MESO-LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN OK. A MOIST TONGUE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS NE TX AND ERN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE TO PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD HELP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY DRIFT NEWD INTO SRN MO AND NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MS VALLEY TODAY AND THIS IS SHUNTING THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW NW OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN OK SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEB BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10,000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE APPEARS LIMITED ATTM. ...WEST AND NCNTRL TX/WRN OK... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWWD INTO WEST TX TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT FARTHER NW...A CAPPING INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF WEST TX. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE MTNS OF WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WRN HILL COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO...HELPING THE STORMS TO RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS WEST TX REACHING WRN OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LUBBOCK AT 06Z SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL DECREASE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE TRANSPECOS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT MINIMAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 16:02:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 11:02:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410251604.i9PG48u08995@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251556 SWODY1 SPC AC 251555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S TUS 25 ENE GCN 55 W P38 65 WSW ELY 55 W OGD 40 ESE JAC 55 SSW GCC 30 NE CYS 45 WSW COS 40 WNW TAD GCK 25 S ICT 15 WSW TOP 35 ESE OMA 40 NNW BRL 20 W SPI 30 SSE HSV 25 NE AQQ ...CONT... 25 NNE BVE 30 WSW ESF 15 SSW CLL 15 WSW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST 25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESEWD AND SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ...TX INTO THE OZARK REGION... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL OK TODAY...WHILE WRN END CONTINUES A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT INTO SERN NM AND W-CENTRAL TX. WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE BIG BEND REGION NNEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX...WITH A 5F TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT LATE THIS MORNING. AS LEADING WEAK IMPULSE /CURRENTLY SUPPORTING CONVECTION FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO N-CENTRAL TX/ CONTINUES NEWD...AND HEATING ALLOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONT INTO ERN OK/AR/MO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AS WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMIT HAIL GROWTH. FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY ALONG COLD FRONT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING OUT OF NRN MEXICO. THUS...CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO NWRN TX/OK WILL POSE ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Oct 25 19:55:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 14:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410251956.i9PJusu05877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251954 SWODY1 SPC AC 251952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BVE 25 W ESF 35 NW LFK 25 NNE AUS 15 SSW SAT LRD ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 40 S FLG 45 NW GCN 55 W P38 65 WSW ELY 10 S ENV 15 NW BPI 45 WSW CPR 20 SE LAR 45 WSW COS 25 W TAD 40 N CAO 20 ESE GLD 30 N HLC 25 SE CNK 35 NNE MHK 20 N OMA 30 SE SPW 25 N ALO 15 S DBQ 15 W SPI 30 SSE HSV 25 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST 25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WEST TX/OK... LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX OVER THE NEXT 3-9HR AS LLJ INCREASES AND SPREADS ATOP SHALLOW AIRMASS THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK. IN ADDITION...SOME HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THIN OVERCAST HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000J/KG. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITHIN THIS ZONE...THEN SPREAD NEWD LATER THIS EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES ALONG RETREATING LATE NIGHT WARM FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY YET GENERATE GUSTY WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW.. 10/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 00:45:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 19:45:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410260046.i9Q0kPu06590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260043 SWODY1 SPC AC 260041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE FHU 20 NNE SAD 40 WSW GNT 35 SSW CEZ 20 NE 4HV 60 NNW P38 15 NW TPH 15 S U31 35 SSE BAM 10 E ENV 15 NW BPI 45 WSW CPR 20 SE LAR 45 WSW COS 25 W TAD 40 N CAO 20 ESE GLD 30 N HLC 25 SE CNK 35 NNE MHK 20 N OMA 30 SE SPW 25 N ALO 15 S DBQ SPI 10 NE DYR 40 S GLH 30 E SHV 45 SSE DAL 20 SE JCT 35 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CLM 35 ESE AST 25 NNE MHS 20 NW SFO. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN-NCNTRL TX... TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ON THE NRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE FROM NW OF KDRT-KDYS WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS NOTED IN THE 00Z KMAF/KDRT SOUNDINGS IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS WERE OBSERVED VCNTY KSJT AND NW OF KDRT. MAIN NEGATIVE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE THE DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY NEAR/NW OF KDRT. OTHERWISE...WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SWLY LLJ ACCELERATES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE TX PNHDL-CNTRL/NRN OK-MO OVERNIGHT. THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS WILL BE VERY LOW OWING TO LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 04:53:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 25 Oct 2004 23:53:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410260455.i9Q4tGu09280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260451 SWODY1 SPC AC 260449 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 35 NE PDX 20 E DLS 25 WSW WMC 45 S TVL 35 SSE FAT 25 WSW BFL 25 NW RAL 35 SSW RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 NE PHX 60 SE PGA 20 NW 4BL 50 ENE DRO 50 WSW RTN 30 WNW CAO LAA 25 WNW AKO 20 N BFF 40 N CDR 35 E RAP 10 N VTN 10 SSW GRI 15 SSW OMA 45 SW FOD 20 NW MKT 65 ENE STC 50 NNE EAU 20 NW VOK 25 WSW JVL 15 W SBN 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS CHA 15 ENE GAD 10 WSW PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG THE W COAST WILL EDGE INLAND OVER WRN/CNTRL CA TUESDAY. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WAVE TRAIN OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VLY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...STRONG FRONT NOW MOVING INTO NWRN CA WILL MOVE S AND E...REACHING THE SIERRA AND NEAR THE LA BASIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT OVER OK/AR WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-MS VLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE FRONT IN THE WEST AND IN THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE THE FOCI FOR TSTMS. ...CA... MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER NRN CA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET /H5 TEMPERATURES BELOW MINUS 25C/ MOVE INLAND. ANY HEATING IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS. HIGHER RISKS FOR HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST FROM KSFO NWD SINCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL HUG THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY AUGMENT STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE FRONTAL RAINBAND AS IT MOVES E INTO THE CNTRL VLYS AND S INTO SRN CA LATE TUESDAY. SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM... THOUGH HEATING WILL BE MITIGATED BY CLOUDS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SANTA BARBARA/LOS ANGELES COASTS. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME ENLARGED WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. THUS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT ISOLD TORNADOES COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ...MID MS VLY... ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST AIR MASS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTING AREAS OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL. HOWEVER...TO THE S OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT INSOLATION COULD RESULT IN STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY. IF THIS KIND OF BUOYANCY IS REALIZED...REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN 40-45 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD RESULT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK DOES NOT SEEM JUSTIFIED ATTM. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 12:58:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 07:58:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410261259.i9QCxSu14737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261257 SWODY1 SPC AC 261255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE UIL 35 NE PDX 65 SE DLS 10 SSW WMC 45 S TVL 10 E FAT 25 E BFL 20 S PMD 35 SSW RAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 NE PHX 60 SE PGA 35 NNE 4BL 40 NNE DRO 10 SSW LVS 15 NNW DHT 45 ESE LAA 30 NE AKO 20 N AIA 45 SSE RAP PHP 25 NNE ANW 10 SSW GRI 15 SSW OMA 45 SW FOD 20 SSE MKT 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY SPREADING A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD TOWARD LAX THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR ALOFT ADVECTS SWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WHICH WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL CONSIDERING THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. AS THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND SFC TEMPS WARM UP...A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL EXCEED 50 KT. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING 25 KT IN THE LA VICINITY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ...MID-MS VALLEY... A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO. THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NRN OZARKS...FARTHER SOUTH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT UP INTO THE 80S F IN FAR SE MO AND ERN AR. THIS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. AS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER NE OK AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVES NEWD...NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AND THIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. ..BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 15:35:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 10:35:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410261536.i9QFaRu01964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261531 SWODY1 SPC AC 261529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 50 E ELD 25 SE TXK 20 ESE ACT 10 SE SAT 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 35 NNW PHX 35 ESE GCN 30 NNW 4BL 25 SSE MTJ 35 NW ALS 50 N CAO 45 ESE LAA 20 NW HLC GRI 30 E OFK 15 SW SPW 20 WSW MSP 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 40 NNW DLS 60 SE DLS 10 NW BNO PIH 30 WSW BPI 35 S EVW 35 SSE SLC 15 SSW U31 45 NNE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... VERY STRONG SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ALONG AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW SHIFTING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL CA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD /INCLUDING SMALL LINES AS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SANTA BARBARA/. HOWEVER...MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY MID LEVEL COLD POCKET /H5 TEMPS AOB -26C/ AND ONSHORE FLOW IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS AFTERNOON HEATING SUPPORTS MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS TODAY WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR SHALLOW SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WITH SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WITHIN FRONTAL BAND CONVECTION MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. ...SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... WARM AND MOIST PROFILES WILL PERSIST WITHIN SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE FOCUSING THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY SHIFT NEWD...WITH LEADING SYSTEM NOW OVER MO/IA SHIFTING ENEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO SWRN TX OVERSPREADS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MODERATE WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. APPEARS FORECAST AND OBSERVED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HAIL GROWTH AND DOWNDRAFT INTENSITIES. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Oct 26 19:44:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 14:44:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410261946.i9QJk7u08545@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261941 SWODY1 SPC AC 261939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GPT 40 SE MCB 45 SSE GLH 15 ENE ELD 15 WSW SHV 45 NNE HOU 55 SE PSX 45 ENE CRP 35 N NIR 40 SE HDO 20 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 35 NNW PHX 25 SW PGA 40 NE U17 15 W MTJ 40 NNW ALS 20 SW CAO 30 NE DHT 20 NW HLC GRI 35 S SUX 25 SW FOD 30 ENE MKT 60 N EAU 40 SE RHI 10 SSW GRB 25 NNE MKE 10 NE BEH 20 NW FDY 25 N CMH 25 SSW HTS 30 NNW CHA 20 NW BHM 30 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 40 NNW DLS 60 SE DLS 10 NNW BNO 30 W BOI 60 NE SUN 35 WNW JAC 50 SW BPI 25 ESE SLC 55 S ELY TPH 50 SSE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA... BROAD BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE...WITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS CNTRL CA INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE NRN CA COAST INTO THE ERN PACIFIC BENEATH THE UPPER VORT DROPPING SWD. THIS POST FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED WITHIN A REGION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM. IT APPEARS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A FEW LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN SIERRA NV RANGE...WWD TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EVEN SO...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 00:57:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 19:57:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410270059.i9R0x7u26409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270056 SWODY1 SPC AC 270055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 25 SW MHS 55 SSE 4LW 45 NW WMC 35 SW OWY 65 SSW TWF 35 NNW ENV 35 NE ELY 60 SSW ELY 30 E TPH 20 NE BIH 40 SSE BIH NID DAG 30 WNW TRM 25 NNW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 30 S SAD 20 W SOW 65 WNW GUP 40 ESE DRO 40 N SAF 15 W ROW 20 S INK 20 N ABI 15 SSE DEC 20 WNW FDY 15 NNE CMH 10 WNW HTS 15 NW CHA 10 E ELD 60 N HOU 40 SSE SAT 15 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR OH VLY... BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZED SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT TSTMS IN THE LWR OH VLY/MID MS VLY VCNTY THE WARM FRONT. A COUPLE OF THESE TSTMS BECAME SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MODEST WSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40 KTS 0-6KM/. MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 WERE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING GIVEN ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY OVERNIGHT...ON THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. THESE TSTMS WILL BE OF A MORE ELEVATED CHARACTER AND COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. BUT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ...SERN AZ AND SWRN NM... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S ADVECTED NWD INTO SERN AZ/SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SRN GULF OF CA. HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF POWERFUL W COAST TROUGH WERE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ISOLD TSTMS BECAME ORGANIZED WITHIN THE 55 KT 0-6KM SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT STABILIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. ...CA... POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BENEATH MINUS 26C COLD POOL OVER NRN/CNTRL CA. AS A RESULT...ANY HAIL RISKS WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE. OTHERWISE...FRONTAL RAINBAND HAS SLOWED OVER ACROSS SRN CA. A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED MOVING INTO NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS ONCE EXPECTED. ALSO...AIR MASS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 04:30:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 26 Oct 2004 23:30:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410270432.i9R4W5u09775@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270428 SWODY1 SPC AC 270426 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL AXN 25 ENE OTG 20 ESE IRK 25 NW MDH 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 30 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM UOX 60 E LIT 30 WNW PBF 25 ENE DAL 45 NNE JCT DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE STATES...WITH A DEEP COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW VCNTY SFO BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND AS LAST STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WAVE TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING NWD FROM DEEP IN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT SITUATED FROM THE OH VLY TO OK/KS BORDER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD WITH TIME WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD BE SLOWED AT TIMES BY PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS. TO THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN CA. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IF/WHERE SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN KS INTO MO AND THE OH VLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY HEATING ALONE. GIVEN INSOLATION...POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG/ WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH KS/NRN OK INTO THE OZARKS. GIVEN 30-35 KT 0-6KM SHEAR...ISOLD STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO GIVE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL. BUT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE/SEVERITY IS LOW. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY. POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CBS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ONE OR TWO TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE LA BASIN WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE MARINE LAYER /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 55F/ BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH 35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM. ..RACY.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 13:04:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 08:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410271305.i9RD5du23532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271303 SWODY1 SPC AC 271301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW INL 20 ENE AXN 25 WNW FRM 25 SSE OTM 15 ESE STL 15 W EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 20 SE UOX 50 E PBF 45 NNW ELD 35 E DAL 35 E TPL 25 SSW PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A LARGE SE US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS KANSAS AND WEST TX WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT DDC SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 40 KT MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SRN KS. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN KS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE A HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT FORM IN THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM WEST TX ARCHING NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS. DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. ...CA... A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SSEWD TODAY ALONG THE COAST OF CA. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING IN THE LA BASIN ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET OF 90 KT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND...PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE BAND DRIFTS SWD ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE SAN DIEGO AREA THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LOW WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION...A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO THE LA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. IF ENHANCED SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL MAINLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST AND ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LA BASIN CREATING A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 16:59:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 11:59:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410271701.i9RH16u21481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271659 SWODY1 SPC AC 271657 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 WNW MCW 25 SSE OTM 15 NNW ALN 40 NW EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 35 WSW CBM 20 W GWO 10 NNE MLU 50 NE LFK 50 WSW LFK 40 ENE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. COLD UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NRN PACIFIC APPROACH WRN CANADA. WRN PORTION OF WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN KS TO THE OH VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CA TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN CA TODAY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS SRN CA. RESULTANT SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S/ OVER THE LA BASIN AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /LESS THAN -20C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM COVERAGE. LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY DESPITE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING PER EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL AID IN GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. STRONGER AXIS OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS WHERE GREATER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. MID-LEVEL SSWLY WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AS A 40-45 KT SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY OVER ERN NM...SPREADS NNEWD. THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED UPPER FORCING EXPECTED ACROSS WRN TX TO WRN KS SUGGESTS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR STORM INITIATION. DESPITE THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. HAIL/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Oct 27 19:54:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 14:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410271955.i9RJtHu20863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271953 SWODY1 SPC AC 271951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW SFO 50 WNW LOL 75 WSW BOI 35 S 27U 30 N WEY 20 SW COD 20 SSE RIW 20 NNW CAG 10 SSW ASE 60 W PUB 30 E COS 35 E CYS 55 WSW RAP 35 N REJ 65 NW MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 WNW MCW 25 SSE OTM 15 NNW ALN 40 NW EVV 30 NW LUK UNI SSU 45 WNW GSO 40 NW AGS 25 SE CSG 30 SW SEM 45 WSW CBM 25 NE GLH 30 NNE ELD 35 NNE GGG 45 WSW LFK 40 ENE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...NWD INTO WRN KS...AS EVIDENCE BY NWD CU FIELD EXPANSION. THIS MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WRN-NWRN PERIPHERY OF THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO OK. THIS REGION OF THE HIGH PLAINS POSES SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED...SFC-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KT. SHOWERS...AND MOST RECENTLY ISOLATED TSTMS...ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE NM BORDER WEST OF LBB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/LIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE SUNSHINE WILL AID FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR PERHAPS A TORNADO IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE/LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ....SRN CA... SECONDARY POST FRONTAL BAND OF CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ROTATING INLAND ALONG THE SRN CA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM VENTURA COUNTY...SWD TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. AIRMASS HAS STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500J/KG. RESULTANT UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH ONGOING/FUTURE CONVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THIS EVEN SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. ..DARROW.. 10/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 01:03:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2004 20:03:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410280104.i9S14ou30840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280102 SWODY1 SPC AC 280101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 60 SW SOW 55 NNE PHX 35 WNW PHX 65 SE YUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MRY 65 SE RBL BOI 35 S 27U WEY 20 SW COD RIW CAG ASE 60 W PUB PUB LIC 55 WSW RAP REJ 55 N MOT ...CONT... 45 ESE RRT BRD MCW OTM ALN 35 NNW EVV SDF CRW PSK 40 ENE HKY AND LGC 0A8 25 NE GLH ELD GGG 50 NE CLL 25 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CA...WITH SEVERAL APPARENT VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING COMMON CENTER NEAR SFO BAY. EXPECT THIS VORTEX TO DRIFT EWD TO SIERRAS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. LOW IS PRECEDED BY EXTENSIVE BAND OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS REGION AND W-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS WELL AS E OF ROCKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. AT SFC...WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM BETWEEN PUB-COS ESEWD ACROSS SWRN AND S-CENTRAL KS TO BETWEEN CNU-EMP...AND SHOULD LIFT NWD 10-15 KT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS REGION TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...WITH AROUND 1800 J/KG MLCAPE IN 00Z AMA RAOB AND SOMEWHAT LESS FARTHER N AND S. AMA RAOB AND CVS VWP INDICATE AROUND 150-200 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER AND AROUND 45 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NEAR PEAK ATTM AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...LLJ INCREASES AND BUOYANCY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SUPERCELL/SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS ERN NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SERN CO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...WHERE ELY SFC FLOW ENLARGES 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS IN REGION OF WEAK BUT NEARLY UNCAPPED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. S-CENTRAL/SERN KS PROFILER WINDS AND VWP DATA...ALONG WITH TOP RAOB ...INDICATE ROUGHLY 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AVAILABLE FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN TURN RIGHTWARD -- MOVING ENE INSTEAD OF NNE ACROSS WARM FRONT AND INTO MORE ELEVATED BUOYANCY. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 06:07:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 01:07:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410280609.i9S69Au09993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280607 SWODY1 SPC AC 280605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AXN 40 W MSP MCW 25 ESE DSM LWD 35 S OMA YKN 40 WNW HON ABR AXN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 10 S CMH 10 SSE CRW 15 S SAV ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 35 SSE MOB 20 WSW GWO 15 SW LIT PGO ADM 40 WNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSW GDP 50 ENE DHT RSL EAR 35 E MHN SNY 40 SE ALS GUP EED 60 NE DAG EKO 55 SSW BOI 80 SSE S80 BZN 50 NW MLS 70 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...EXTREME ERN NEB...WRN/CENTRAL IA... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE MEAN PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH IMPORTANT SHORTWAVE ADJUSTMENTS. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CA/NV -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD. ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL ASSUME POSITIVE TILT ACROSS WRN CONUS...AS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT SFC...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NRN PLAINS...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS INVOF NERN WY AND MOVES GENERALLY EWD TOWARD SERN SD/NWRN IA. SFC WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN CO AND N-CENTRAL TO SERN KS...WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD AND ACROSS PORTIONS UPPER AND LOWER MI BY 29/12Z. DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED EARLY IN PERIOD FROM SERN NM TO ERN CO...THEN MOVE EWD TO WRN/CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF VERTICAL MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION TO ITS W. ...UPPER MIDWEST... CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CORRIDOR FROM E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS WRN IA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE AVAILABLE BUOYANCY INVOF WARM FRONT STILL WILL BE SFC-BASED. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP BEFORE 00Z WILL BE IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW LCL AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S TO SPREAD NEWD THROUGH MOIST SECTOR BEHIND SFC WARM FRONT...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. FCST HODOGRAPHS NEAR WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY BACKED SFC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 0-1 KM SRH ON 150-250 J/KG RANGE...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 40-50 KT. SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGIME MAY PRODUCE ANY FORM OF SEVERE INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH SFC WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHARPLY DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NEWD OVER DAKOTAS/MN/IA...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG IT IS UNLIKELY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FCST THETA CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SLOPE...AND AREA WILL BE UNDER OR JUST W OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE THROUGH AROUND 21Z. THEREAFTER CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAY ALLOW SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL DRY INTRUSION. 45-55 KT LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER DARK WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE FARTHER S NEAR DRYLINE AS WELL WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...COVERAGE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN ABOUT27/21Z AND 28/03Z. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 13:05:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 08:05:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410281306.i9SD6Ku20583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281303 SWODY1 SPC AC 281301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW FOD 50 E SUX FSD 20 WSW ATY 60 NE ABR 20 ESE FAR 30 SSE BJI 25 NE BRD 55 E STC 30 NNE MCW 35 S MCW 35 SW FOD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 15 S SAV ...CONT... 30 SE JAX 60 N PIE ...CONT... 35 SSE MOB 20 WSW GWO 10 NNE PBF 30 NW HOT 20 ESE ADM 40 WNW DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW GDP 45 W AMA 15 W RSL 15 SE EAR 15 NNW LBF 15 S SNY 40 SE ALS 30 W GUP EED 60 NE DAG 35 NE EKO 55 SSW BOI 80 SSE S80 LVM 45 NNW DIK 65 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS...MN AND NRN IA... ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... A LARGE ERN US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ENEWD ACROSS MN AND IA THIS MORNING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FARTHER WEST ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS KS INTO CNTRL NEB. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD...THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NNEWD INTO ERN SD AND WRN MN WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG A NWD MOVING WARM FRONT IN ERN SD AND WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND THIS WILL MAKE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SW MN AT 21Z SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 9000 TO 11000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL FORMATION. IN ADDITION...50 KTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN MCS FORMATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS TONIGHT AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM KS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WCNTRL TX. FAIRLY DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONG SFC HEATING IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM CNTRL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK ENEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS AND COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED. STORM STRENGTH WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MAKE HAIL OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 16:02:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 11:02:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410281604.i9SG43u14186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281559 SWODY1 SPC AC 281558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 30 SSE DHT 20 WSW DDC 15 SW BIE OFK 50 E ANW 30 SW VTN 20 SSE AIA 50 NW AKO 55 NNE 4SL 55 NE INW 30 WNW EED 45 W DRA 10 W ELY 30 WNW IDA 65 WSW MLS 65 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PNS 45 NW MEI 25 ESE PBF 45 WSW HOT 40 ENE DAL 20 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MTC 30 W TOL 15 S DAY 15 NNE JKL 10 NE SPA 35 SSW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK IMPULSE OVERSPREADING ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS. OBSERVED ANALYSES FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS ELEVATED ALONG COOL SIDE OF NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN SD INTO SRN IA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MN WILL INHIBIT NWD MOVEMENT TO THIS BOUNDARY TODAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES. IN ITS WAKE... LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS CAPPING REMAINS STRONG AS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MORNING SHORT-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY OVER THIS REGION. THUS...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ELEVATED STORMS TODAY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK/OK AND TX PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX/DISSIPATE AND ALLOW AMPLE HEATING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES OBSERVED THIS MORNING. THOUGH LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES RELATIVELY LOW ATTM. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Oct 28 20:00:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 15:00:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410282001.i9SK1Au08195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281958 SWODY1 SPC AC 281956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 40 E TCC 20 SSW GCK 35 NNW CNK 40 N GRI 40 ESE ANW 25 NE MHN 25 SSE AIA 50 NW AKO 55 NNE 4SL 55 NE INW 30 WNW EED 45 W DRA 10 W ELY 30 WNW IDA 65 WSW MLS 65 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PNS 45 NW MEI 25 ESE PBF 45 WSW HOT 40 ENE DAL 20 WNW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MTC 30 W TOL 15 S DAY 15 NNE JKL 10 NE SPA 35 SSW CHS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS VALLEY... AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER FAR SERN MT/NERN WY WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SERN SD AND INTO CNTRL MO. PERSISTENT 25-35 KT SWLY LLJ FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY HAS MAINTAINED ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS TODAY N OF WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NERN SD/SERN ND EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MN AND WI. EXPECT LLJ TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS... NWD TRANSPORT OF INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN REGION OF BROADER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...SRN PLAINS... DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG /PER RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS/. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CORROBORATE THESE DATA AND ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. PRIMARY CONCERN...HOWEVER... IS THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH WOULD FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE A WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SWRN KS /W OF DDC/ SWWD INTO THE SWRN TX PNHDL /E OF CVS/. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OR OTHER SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY BREAK THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. CURRENT PROFILERS INDICATE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST. ..MEAD.. 10/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 01:13:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2004 20:13:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410290114.i9T1EZu20525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290111 SWODY1 SPC AC 290109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC MIE LAF MMO MLI SZL CNU PNC END CSM 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 S MRF 35 NNW INK 40 E TCC 20 SSW GCK OLU OFK 65 W YKN VTN AIA COS GUP 25 NNW TUS 60 SE BIH ELY MLD BIL 65 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE JAX 45 ESE TLH 10 E CEW MEI UOX MKL HOP JKL 30 SE 5I3 60 WNW AND 35 SSE AHN 25 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 20 W CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN CONUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE IS ANALYZED ATTM WITH SEVERAL DIFFUSE CENTERS SCATTERED FROM NRN CO TO ERN SD AND SERN MT. HOWEVER...EXPECT DISCRETE LOW TO CONSOLIDATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIGRATE ENEWD ACROSS NEB/SD BORDER REGION. SFC WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL SD SEWD ACROSS WRN IA AND NERN MO -- WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN. DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR PRESENT POSITION FROM CENTRAL NEB SSWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...TO SERN CORNER NM. ...UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY ... LOW LEVEL PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT...COMBINING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO YIELD 40-45 KT SSWLY LLJ. PARCELS WILL BE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF TSTMS. STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOF DRYLINE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. VERY WEAK CAPPING EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG...AND SFC-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 50 KT SUPPORTING POTENTIAL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION FOR ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ATTM NW OF MAF MAY INTENSIFY...HOWEVER TEMPORAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC-BASED STORMS IS SHORT-LIVED BECAUSE OF ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN CINH. ..EDWARDS.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 06:07:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 01:07:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410290608.i9T68Cu25880@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290605 SWODY1 SPC AC 290603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MTC MBS 45 NNE GRR MKG CGX 45 WSW ARG 45 NNE HOT 40 ENE PGO MLC OKC FLV DSM FOD SPW FSD MHE HON ABR HIB 40 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 20 W CTY ...CONT... PFN 0A8 HOP 35 SSW PAH 35 SSE SHV AUS 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 FST 65 WSW SPS MHK 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE YKN 30 NNW BUB MHN DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ BIS 15 WNW INL ...CONT... 25 N ART ABE DCA CLT 40 SW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE TRACKING TOWARD SRN MN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER CENTRAL/WRN NEB -- WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MOST OF DAY AS IT CROSSES SERN SD AND SRN MN. THIS CYCLONE MAY OCCLUDE BEFORE END OF PERIOD ACROSS ERN MN/NWRN WI AS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SURGES EWD OVER NRN MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT ALSO WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MERGE IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED ZIPPER PROCESS WITH WEAKER COMBINED PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER ERN KS AND OK. DRYLINE/FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN TX. RESULTANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT -- SIGNIFYING WRN EDGE OF MOIST SECTOR -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA SWWD INVOF MKC-OKC-ABI LINE DURING 29/23Z-30/00Z TIME FRAME...BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE FROM LATEST SREF MEMBERS AND 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS. WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN IA SEWD ACROSS NERN MO AND SRN IL -- WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES STATES AND MI THROUGHOUT PERIOD...REACHING SRN AND CENTRAL ONT BY 30/12Z. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN OK... ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- CONSISTING OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS -- IS POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...AND BENEATH AND N OF NOSE OF MIDLEVEL DRY SURGE. A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO MAY FORM IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CINH. STORMS MOVING N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS HAVING SFC-BASED INFLOW IN WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL OCCUR OVER THIS REGION...RESULTING IN MAXIMIZED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AHEAD OF DEEPENING CYCLONE. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER HODOGRAPHS BETWEEN COLD AND WARM FRONTS -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH 150-250 J/KG. CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW BUT MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE AREAS ALLOWING SEVERAL HOURS OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FARTHER S...PROBABLE COLD FRONTAL ALIGNMENT ACROSS SRN IA AND MO IS MORE PARALLEL TO MEAN WIND AND PROJECTED STORM MOTION VECTORS THAN FARTHER N. THIS...COMBINED WITH STEEPNESS OF FRONT BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL CROSS SECTIONS...SUGGEST QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH EMBEDDED OR EARLY STAGE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SRH AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DISCRETE SUPERCELL PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FARTHER SWD INTO WRN MO...ERN KS AND NERN OK...WHERE 1. MEAN FLOW VECTORS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE WLY AND ACROSS FORCING BOUNDARY AND 2. CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON...AND 3. BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY LARGE WITH UPPER 60S/70S F SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. CAPPING...HOWEVER...MAY ALSO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE AND THEREFORE OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. STILL...ANY SUSTAINED STORMS WHICH FORM MAY PRODUCE FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE. LINEAR FORCING SHOULD DOMINATE CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK INVOF FRONT...RESULTING IN THREAT BECOMING PRIMARILY DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT THROUGH CENTRAL/SERN OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ...NERN WI...UPPER MI...NRN LOWER MI...LS AND NRN LM... ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION INVOF NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING THETAE ABOVE RELATIVELY COOL...PRE WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECT MUCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG AWAY FROM EXISTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...INCREASING WITH PROXIMITY TO SFC WARM FRONT. SUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT EPISODES OF TSTMS WITH HAIL BEING MAIN CONCERN. AFTER DARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED MODE CLOSELY WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ..EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 12:52:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 07:52:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410291253.i9TCrOu30073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291251 SWODY1 SPC AC 291249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 30 ENE AZO 35 SE CGX 20 S DEC 25 S BLV 25 W POF 55 WSW ARG 25 N HOT 40 S PGO 10 SSE ADM 20 NNE FSI 30 SE END 15 WNW FLV 40 NNW LWD 15 SW FOD SPW 10 SE FSD 35 SW MHE 25 E PIR 40 E MBG 20 NE FAR 40 NNW HIB 35 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N AQQ 45 WNW AUO 50 N MSL MKL 35 SSE SHV 25 NNE SAT 40 SSE DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW P07 10 NNW FST 65 WSW SPS 15 WSW ICT 40 SE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 ESE YKN 30 NNW BUB 10 SW MHN 25 SSE DGW 30 SE SHR 40 NNE 4BQ 60 WSW DVL 45 E RRT ...CONT... 25 N ART 25 ESE AVP 45 N RIC 15 NNE CLT 30 WSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX 15 W CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE NOW OVER SRN SD WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MN BY EARLY EVENING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WRN IA AND ERN KS. THE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH OK AND TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND FROM SERN KS THROUGH ERN OK AND INTO NW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AREA THROUGH SRN PLAINS... RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ HAS ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS FAR N AS SRN MN. SURFACE HEATING...AS WELL AS MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD OVER THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT IN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET NOW SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT. THIS AND DESTABILIZATION ACCOMPANYING STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL SINCE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUCH THAT STORMS WILL CROSS INTO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST S OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND MID LEVEL DRY SURGE FROM EXTREME ERN SD INTO SRN MN MAY STAY SURFACE BASED LONGER WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER S...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF IA SWD THROUGH MO...ERN KS...OK AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS TX. STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERLAP THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. BY MID AFTERNOON...0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND 0-2 KM SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINE SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL/CROSBIE.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 16:07:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 11:07:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410291608.i9TG8gu08875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291600 SWODY1 SPC AC 291558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE P35 10 N DSM 20 WNW MCW 30 WNW MKT 30 SW BRD 35 SSW DLH AUW OSH RFD BRL 45 NE P35. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 35 WNW ADM OKC STJ 55 WSW DSM SPW BKX 9V9 PIR 40 E MBG FAR ELO 85 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA 15 WSW MSV 30 NW ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30 ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI 15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 25 NNE CLL 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 35 SSW P07 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC 20 NNE EMP 40 NNW FNB 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E CDR 55 S Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...WESTERN WI...EASTERN IA...AND NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN OK INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER WY/CO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD INTO MN...WITH BROAD WARM SECTOR EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LOW. COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. ...SOUTHERN MN/WI/IA/NORTHWEST IL... ETA/RUC/GFS SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM LOW INTO WESTERN IA/WESTERN MO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE WARM/MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA AND INTO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS AND LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM WOULD SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO BOUNDARY ALSO INDICATE A RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO WI/IL. ...CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI... DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE DLH AREA. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN AWAY FROM THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IF POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR. ...CENTRAL SD INTO WESTERN MN... ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL SD. MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SD INTO WESTERN MN AS STRONG UVVS OVERSPREAD ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. REFER TO MCD NUMBER 2364 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...IL/MO/AR/OK... SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD FROM MN/SD LOW INTO WESTERN MO AND CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER FORCING AND MID LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FRONT...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP...AND LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..HART/BANACOS.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Oct 29 20:09:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 15:09:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410292010.i9TKANV09138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292007 SWODY1 SPC AC 292005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW OTM 30 NNE DSM 35 W MCW 30 NW MKT 30 E STC 60 SSE DLH 35 W RHI OSH RFD BRL 45 SW OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC AZO LAF MVN POF 25 N HOT 25 NE PRX DUA 30 N ADM 40 W TUL 20 WSW FNB 40 NE OMA 20 WSW SPW 25 ENE BKX 50 SE MBG 50 NE MBG FAR 10 SE BJI ELO 95 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW PSX 40 S AUS 30 WNW HDO 35 NNE DRT 25 SW SJT 60 WNW MWL 20 NNW OKC 30 W EMP 30 ENE BIE 30 SSE SUX 20 N OFK 30 WNW BUB 15 WSW MHN 35 E CDR 55 S Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 30 ENE UCA 15 WSW MSV 30 NW ILG 15 SW MRB 35 SSW EKN 15 SSE BLF 20 NNW HKY 30 ESE SPA CAE 30 SSW CHS ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW AQQ 20 E TOI 15 WNW ANB 45 SW BNA 20 WNW MKL 25 SE ELD 40 NNE POE 20 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...MN...WI AND IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SRN LOW PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD/NEB WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NEB. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED LOW WAS SITUATED OVER NERN SD AS OF 19Z WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI. PRIMARY COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS...WHILE A SECONDARY...WEAKER COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NERN KS SWWD INTO CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN IA/SERN NEB...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/SRN MN INTO IA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES NOW APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ALONG FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. EVOLUTION INTO A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD #2366. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG/N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MN EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT LAKES AS 50-60 KT SLY LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WI. WHILE LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEARER TO SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ACROSS WARM FRONT. FINALLY...TCU HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS AHEAD OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO CNTRL OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TENDS TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT...THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING CAP SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH AN EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH TIME. ..MEAD.. 10/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:05:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:05:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410300106.i9U16mV30131@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300105 SWODY1 SPC AC 300103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL OTM ALO 20 E RST 60 NE MSP 40 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD RHI OSH RFD BRL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC JXN LAF MDH POF LIT 25 NNW TXK 15 SW DUA 35 NW MLC 50 ENE CNU LWD 40 N RST 30 E BRD 50 ESE BJI ELO 45 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK MSV ABE BWI 30 ESE CHO LYH 45 ESE PKB ZZV DAY OWB ELD TYR MWL ADM TUL 25 WNW RST MSP STC AXN 50 NNE ATY 30 NE PIR 45 SE Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 55 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WI...PORTIONS ERN IA...NWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MI TO ERN OK/WRN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT OVER CONUS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SD. THIS LOW WILL CATCH UP WITH OCCLUDING SFC LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER NERN SD/SERN ND THIS EVENING. RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN REMAINDER TONIGHT....WHILE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NWD ACROSS LS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS IA...MO...OK AND W TX...CATCHING UP TO DRYLINE THAT IS NOW LARGELY STALLED ACROSS TX/OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN MO... POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING ENHANCED FOR TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT OVER NERN MN/NRN WI. REF WWS 869-871...873..AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT OVER WARM SECTOR -- WITH 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER BASED ON RAOBS AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. THEREFORE...MUST CONTINUE TO CARRY TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM PRIMARILY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE AND ROTATING BOW ECHO HEADS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN IA AND WI WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAR E AS WRN UPPER MI AND LM FROM ACTIVITY NOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...SRN MO TO SERN OK/WRN AR... REF SPC WW 872 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER/DIURNAL STRATUS DECK ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...MAINTAINING CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE THAT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AR AND MORE OF SWRN MO THROUGH EVENING. MEANWHILE RELATIVE COOL POCKET LEFT OVER FROM THAT STRATUS COVER WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN OZARKS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO AND WEAKEN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 06Z...WITH MLCAPES IN 700-1100 J/KG RANGE BASED ON MODIFIED SGF/RUC SOUNDINGS. ...IL/LM/LOWER MI AND SERN WI... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT CENTRAL/WRN IL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WAA ZONE FARTHER N NEAR LM...SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD LOWER MI. EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WAA ASCENT PROVIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 01:16:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 29 Oct 2004 20:16:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410300117.i9U1HfV01447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300113 SWODY1 SPC AC 300112 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0812 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRL OTM ALO 20 E RST 60 NE MSP 40 SSW DLH 25 SW IWD RHI OSH RFD BRL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC JXN LAF MDH POF LIT 25 NNW TXK 15 SW DUA 35 NW MLC 50 ENE CNU LWD 40 N RST 30 E BRD 50 ESE BJI ELO 45 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS SLK MSV ABE BWI 30 ESE CHO LYH 45 ESE PKB ZZV DAY OWB ELD TYR MWL ADM TUL 25 WNW RST MSP STC AXN 50 NNE ATY 30 NE PIR 45 SE Y22 35 NE BIS 55 W RRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF WI...PORTIONS ERN IA...NWRN IL...EXTREME SERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MI TO ERN OK/WRN AR... COR TO REMOVE EXTRANEOUS THUNDER LINE ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT OVER CONUS FEATURES MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SD. THIS LOW WILL CATCH UP WITH OCCLUDING SFC LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER NERN SD/SERN ND THIS EVENING. RESULTANT DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN REMAINDER TONIGHT....WHILE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NWD ACROSS LS REGION. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS IA...MO...OK AND W TX...CATCHING UP TO DRYLINE THAT IS NOW LARGELY STALLED ACROSS TX/OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN MO... POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THAT WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING ENHANCED FOR TSTMS CROSSING WARM FRONT OVER NERN MN/NRN WI. REF WWS 869-871...873..AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT OVER WARM SECTOR -- WITH 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM LAYER BASED ON RAOBS AND VWP/PROFILER DATA. THEREFORE...MUST CONTINUE TO CARRY TORNADO PROBABILITIES ATTM PRIMARILY FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STORMS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE AND ROTATING BOW ECHO HEADS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN IA AND WI WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAR E AS WRN UPPER MI AND LM FROM ACTIVITY NOW ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ...SRN MO TO SERN OK/WRN AR... REF SPC WW 872 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME EARLIER STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER/DIURNAL STRATUS DECK ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...MAINTAINING CORRIDOR OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CAPE THAT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AR AND MORE OF SWRN MO THROUGH EVENING. MEANWHILE RELATIVE COOL POCKET LEFT OVER FROM THAT STRATUS COVER WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN OZARKS INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO AND WEAKEN. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 06Z...WITH MLCAPES IN 700-1100 J/KG RANGE BASED ON MODIFIED SGF/RUC SOUNDINGS. ...IL/LM/LOWER MI AND SERN WI... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS NOW EVIDENT CENTRAL/WRN IL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN WAA ZONE FARTHER N NEAR LM...SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD LOWER MI. EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WAA ASCENT PROVIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY NEAR-FRONTAL BAND MENTIONED ABOVE...IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 05:57:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 00:57:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410300558.i9U5wlV21367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300556 SWODY1 SPC AC 300555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW ART ITH IPT 35 ESE MGW UNI DAY JXN ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC FYV 60 NNW LIT 25 SSE JBR 40 NW HOP SBN MBL 75 ENE MQT ...CONT... ACY DAN ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CTB 70 NE MSO 45 SSW MSO ALW 55 W YKM 30 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MI TO OH...WRN PORTIONS NY/PA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN CONUS. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN SD IS FCST TO CONTINUE OCCLUDING AND TO FILL THROUGH END OF PERIOD...AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES TO SWRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER WRN UPPER MI...SWWD ACROSS WRN WI...MO AND NW TX. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD ACROSS REMAINDER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY...LOSING BAROCLINICITY AS PARENT UPPER PERTURBATION FILLS/EJECTS. STILL...ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD. FARTHER SW...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT FROM ARKLATEX TO W TX WILL STALL...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS WARM FRONT LATE IN PERIOD. ELEVATED WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP N OF FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING SRN CA AND NRN BAJA. LATTER TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE OVER NWRN MEX -- APCHG FAR W TX -- BY 31/12Z. ...CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES STATES AND OH VALLEY... AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING INVOF FRONT OVER PORTIONS WRN OR CENTRAL LOWER MI NWD INTO ERN UPPER MI...WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE PRESENT SE OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...OVER MUCH OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA. EXPECT 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F WILL HELP TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL BUOYANCY...AND FORCED ASCENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN TSTM LINE. THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES...SBCAPE WILL STRENGTHEN TO ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. THREAT WILL DECREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL/ERN PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY AFTER ABOUT 31/00Z...AS BAND OF STRONGEST ASCENT MOVES INTO DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. ...W TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OVER TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN REGION. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXPAND/SPREAD NEWD AND BECOME GREATER IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK --- ESPECIALLY N OF SFC FRONT -- WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING. LATE AFTERNOON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 6.5-7/5 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F SE OF FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. CAPPING SHOULD RESTRICT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. FLOW ALONG FRONT SHOULD BE WEAK BUT WITH MAJOR DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM E... COMBINING WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS TO YIELD 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEARS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. 30-40 KT LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND NW TX AFTER DARK...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ELEVATED MUCAPE SHOULD BE UNDER 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS. LITTLE OR NO MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT IS INDICATED THROUGHOUT PERIOD WITH MEX TROUGH STILL WELL W...AND CAPPING IS A CONCERN DURING AFTERNOON. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BELOW CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK THRESHOLDS ATTM. ..EDWARDS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 13:35:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 08:35:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410301336.i9UDaqV11830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301257 SWODY1 SPC AC 301255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR ITH 15 SSE IPT 20 WNW CXY 15 W EKN 15 NNW 5I3 40 NW JKL LUK 35 NNE DAY 25 NE TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SBY 40 W RIC ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 45 NNW HOP 15 NNE BMG 20 ENE AZO 50 N GRR 15 SSW TVC 25 WSW ESC 20 ESE IWD 60 WNW CMX 65 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CTB 70 NE MSO 45 SSW MSO ALW 55 W YKM 30 NW AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY AREA... WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TODAY AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FILLS AND EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL JETS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN OH SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KY MAY SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND/SHEAR PROFILES... THE STRONGER CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND EVENT. ...W TX... THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SW TX. THE CAP WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION MUCH OF TODAY...BUT MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL COME OVERNIGHT WHEN DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER PARTS OF W AND N TX. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER N TX...GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO SRN OK OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 15:47:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 10:47:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410301548.i9UFmBV28595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301541 SWODY1 SPC AC 301539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW SYR LBE PKB UNI 45 ENE LUK 35 NNE DAY 35 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DOV 20 NNE LYH ATL 45 ESE MEI 15 SE 7R4 ...CONT... 10 ESE PSX 60 WSW COT ...CONT... 25 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 45 NNW HOP 30 WSW LUK 20 SW TOL 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 N OSC 35 S TVC 20 ENE AUW 25 W IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 55 SE FCA 45 SSW MSO 20 SSE ALW 20 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 25 E PDX 50 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF OH...NORTHERN WV...WESTERN PA...AND WESTERN NY... ...EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... POTENT UPPER LOW OVER MN/WI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC THIS PERIOD...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A CORRIDOR OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA. THIS AREA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP/SUSTAIN IN THIS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY AND CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING...WHERE MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND SUNSET WILL DIMINISH THREAT. ...TX... AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. THIS AIR MASS WILL BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO CENTRAL OK. SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A LOW THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS TONIGHT OVER WEST TX. ..HART/BANACOS.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Oct 30 19:49:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 14:49:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410301950.i9UJo0V18027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301944 SWODY1 SPC AC 301943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 SSE ELP ROW AMA GAG PNC 30 WNW FYV 60 N LIT 30 SE JBR 55 ENE MKL 15 NNW LEX 10 ENE CMH 45 NNW YNG ...CONT... 15 NNE APN 45 NNW TVC 10 N IMT 20 W CMX ...CONT... 35 ESE DOV 20 NNE LYH ATL 45 ESE MEI 40 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA 55 SE FCA 45 SSW MSO 20 SSE ALW 20 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 25 E PDX 50 S AST. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER OH VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER L.S. WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS L.H. INTO WRN OH AND INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. THOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS TO WARM AS WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED....VEERING WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE RESULTED IN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. MOREOVER...DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OH...WHICH IS SLOWING THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. DESPITE STRONG...ZONAL TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE ORGANIZING...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...TX... COLD FRONT HAS EFFECTIVELY STALLED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO SWRN TX /E OF P07/. DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F AND DIABATIC HEATING HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT TO BECOME SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. PERSISTENT WAA COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS WRN TX/PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ ARE LIKELY AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM N-CNTRL TX SWD INTO NRN COAHUILA MEXICO. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM VICINITY OF BOUNDARY NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT FORM NEAR SURFACE FRONT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODEST LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2382. ..MEAD.. 10/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 00:57:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2004 19:57:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410310058.i9V0wcV23056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310056 SWODY1 SPC AC 310055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE FCA 65 NE MSO 55 E S80 30 E ALW 55 NE EPH 15 W EAT 50 E SLE 25 NNW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 25 N HOB 25 WSW CSM 10 ESE END 25 SSW JLN 20 NNW ARG 20 S MKL 25 NE MSL 30 NNE CHA 40 SSE TYS 40 WNW AND ATL 40 E MEI 40 SE ESF 35 NW HOU 35 NNW NIR 40 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW JFK 20 WNW ILG 30 WSW AOO 20 SE FKL 15 WNW JHW 25 NNW BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PARTS OF WRN AND NRN NY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ERIE / ONTARIO... WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN QUEBEC. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...MINIMAL INSTABILITY HAS HINDERED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM LAKE ONTARIO ENEWD ACROSS NRN NY...BUT EXPECT REMAINING SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS FURTHER STABILIZES. ...TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX ENEWD TO THE RED RIVER / ARKLATEX... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT NOW NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE / INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AXIS OF GREATEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1000 T0 2OOO J/KG/ EXISTS ACROSS N TX ATTM...WHERE EVENING FWD /FORT WORTH TX/ RAOB INDICATES 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 7 C/KM. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS ACROSS MOST OF N TX AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK / THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 05:21:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 00:21:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410310521.i9V5LvV04534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310519 SWODY1 SPC AC 310517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP ROW 10 WNW AMA 20 NNE P28 35 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 25 SE OTM 20 NW SPI 35 SSW HUF 45 S SDF 10 NNE CSV 20 NNE ATL 30 NNE LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 SW MEI 30 E MCB 35 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW U28 30 ENE SLC MLD 20 SE IDA 25 NE JAC 25 S WRL 40 E DGW BFF 25 NNW LIC 25 ESE PUB 25 W TAD 40 SE DRO 40 WSW CEZ 10 SSW U28. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND SRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSING BAJA CA WILL PHASE WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES / HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH -- PARTICULARLY THE SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / SPEED MAX -- WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME PREVAILS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL MAKE RELATIVELY SLOW EWD PROGRESS...A STRONG SWD SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...REACHING WRN OK / THE TX PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD PER LATEST ETA FORECAST. ...HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD INTO SERN OK / AR... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN BROAD REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SWRN U.S. UPPER FEATURE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING. RESULTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM SUGGESTS THAT STORM INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED. DESPITE THIS...FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL EXIST OVER THIS REGION. THEREFORE...LARGE REGION OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE INCLUDED FROM PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS THAT AREAS OF GREATER HEATING / INSTABILITY MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS TX / NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS / MID MS / LOWER OH / TN VALLEYS WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 12:55:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 07:55:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410311256.i9VCuGV24185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311254 SWODY1 SPC AC 311252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ELP ROW 10 WNW AMA 20 NNE P28 35 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 25 SE OTM 20 NNW DEC 35 SSE BMG 35 SSE SDF 20 NW TYS 20 NNE ATL 30 NNE LGC 20 SSE BHM 15 SW MEI 30 E MCB 35 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW U28 30 ENE SLC MLD 20 SE IDA 25 NE JAC 25 S WRL 40 E DGW BFF 25 NNW LIC 25 ESE PUB 25 W TAD 45 SE DRO 40 WSW CEZ 10 SSW U28. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX THROUGH SRN OK AND AR... A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF SW TX NEWD THROUGH N CNTRL TX AND INTO CNTRL AR. AN AREA OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM CNTRL OK EWD THROUGH NRN AR. FARTHER WEST...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO IS SPREADING THROUGH ERN NM INTO FAR W TX AND WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SEPARATE ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EXISTS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH TX AND INTO OK TODAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH WRN/CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH OK. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND PRE-EXISTING MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE TX INTO LA...AND SOME OF THE STORMS ON THE ERN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN AREA MAY UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE INFLOW AIR DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT THROUGH MUCH OF TX...SRN OK AND AR TODAY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 16:14:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 11:14:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410311614.i9VGExV20018@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311608 SWODY1 SPC AC 311606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS 30 SSE OKC MKO 30 SSE FYV HOT 30 WNW TXK 45 NNE ACT BWD 35 E ABI SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 20 ENE GDP 35 SW CDS 40 NNW BVO 35 NE COU 40 SSW DEC 40 SW HUF 40 ENE OWB 55 NNW CSV 40 NW HSS 30 ENE AVL 35 S SPA 15 N MCN 55 SE MEI 20 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE RWL 25 NNW FCL 40 W TAD 15 ESE 4SL 50 NW GUP 20 ENE U17 40 NNW PUC 50 S BPI 50 SSE LND 45 ENE RWL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND WESTERN AR... ...OK/TX/AR... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS UPSTREAM JET MAX DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CA INTO AZ. MEANWHILE... BAND OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK/SOUTHERN AR...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA WILL SEE BROKEN CLOUDS TODAY ALLOWING SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUTLOOK AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF INCREASING UVVS AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR. ETA/RUC MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/BANACOS.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Oct 31 19:33:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2004 14:33:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200410311934.i9VJY8V25142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311932 SWODY1 SPC AC 311930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPS 30 SSE OKC MKO 30 SSE FYV 10 W HOT 45 SW TYR 55 E JCT 10 NNE JCT 20 NNE SJT SPS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 20 ENE GDP 35 SW CDS 40 NNW BVO 35 NE COU 40 SSW DEC 40 SW HUF 40 ENE OWB 55 NNW CSV 40 NW HSS 30 ENE AVL 35 S SPA 15 N MCN 55 SE MEI 20 SE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE RWL 25 NNW FCL 40 W TAD 15 ESE 4SL 50 NW GUP 20 ENE U17 40 NNW PUC 50 S BPI 50 SSE LND 45 ENE RWL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF TX...OK AND AR... ...TX/OK/AR... 18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS WITH A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD INTO CNTRL OK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOWS MORE WARM FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT STRETCHES ESEWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AR AND NRN MS. FARTHER S...DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM E OF DRT NWD TO W OF BWD TO INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT NE OF MLC. CLUSTER OF TSTMS ONGOING OVER ERN OK APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED INVOF A MESOLOW ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE E OF SJT...AND POSSIBLY DOWNSTREAM FROM ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF NRN MEXICO. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION NWD INTO NERN TX/SERN OK HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S INTO LOWER 80S. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 60S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN SOME AREAS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND A DECREASING CAP. ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING ACTIVITY NEAR SJT TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2383. ..MEAD.. 10/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.