[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281941
SWODY1
SPC AC 281940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2004

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JFK 25 SW PSF 30
S RUT 15 W LCI 35 ESE AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ALS 10 NNE ALS
50 NNE SAF 30 W SAF 40 S GNT 30 S SOW 30 SSW INW 65 N INW 35 SSW 4BL
45 NNE CEZ 30 SW GUC 35 NW ALS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW TYR 30 SW TPL
40 ENE JCT 45 N SJT 35 SSE CDS 30 SSE GAG 25 NNW END TUL 25 E MLC 35
S PRX 35 SSW TYR.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SEWD THRU TONIGHT OVER SRN AZ.  WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT IS
MOVING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS SURFACE LOW FORMED WELL
EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS SPREAD SEWD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS SWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO

...NEW ENGLAND...

MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES REMAIN ACROSS AREA AS MUCH OF THE
BETTER FRONTAL LIFT IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.  K-INDICES STILL
INDICATING THAT THERE ARE LIMITED LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...PARTS OF OK/TX...

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS SLOWLY FORMING OVER SERN CO WELL AHEAD AT
THIS TIME OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW.  FORMING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME S TX...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NWD TONIGHT INTO NRN TX AS 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS NWD THRU
CENTRAL TX ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS N TX AND MUCH
OF OK. LOW PRESSURE BY 29/06Z SHOULD BE AROUND NWRN TX/SWRN OK
INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THRU NWRN TX AND ENHANCING LIFT
NEAR THE LOW AND ACROSS WARM ADVECTION AREA.  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
 ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REGION...BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

COLD CORE OF MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -30C CREATING
MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF AZ/NM AND CO.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.