[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281245
SWODY1
SPC AC 281243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW SHV 35 WSW LFK
20 W CLL 35 NW AUS 10 E BWD 40 NNW MWL 10 S OKC 25 NNE MLC 25 WSW
PGO 35 NNW SHV 40 SSW SHV ...CONT... 50 E GUC 50 NNE ALS 40 SE ALS
40 N SAF 35 SW 4SL 65 SSE PGA 15 W U17 10 WNW 4HV 30 SSE PUC 45 WNW
GJT 30 W ASE 50 E GUC ...CONT... 20 SSW WAL 25 WSW SBY 35 S CXY ITH
10 SE SYR 45 WNW GFL 35 NW RUT 10 S PSM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS TROUGH NOW SETTLING SE ACROSS
THE GRT BASIN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  THE WRN TROUGH WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE ZONE
WILL FAVOR ANTICYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN PLNS...AND WILL ALLOW
SHALLOW LAYER OF POLAR AIR NOW STALLED E OF THE CNTRL RCKYS TO SURGE
S INTO THE SRN HI PLNS.  THIS...IN TURN...WILL FORCE SE CO SURFACE
LOW TO REDEVELOP SEWD...AND WILL LEAVE AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NW TX TO SE KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLNS...
A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL OCCUR OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER FLOW
BACKS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH.  BY LATE IN THE PERIOD
...EXPECT THAT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL HAVE SPREAD NWD INTO
N TX...BENEATH HIGH LEVEL MOIST CONVEYOR ORIGINATING IN THE E
PACIFIC.  COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE SLOPED ASCENT IN WARM CONVEYOR
BELT...INCREASING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
UPLIFT INVOF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER FROM
CNTRL TX NWD INTO SRN/ERN OK.  WHILE 40+ KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABSENCE OF A STRONG SRN STREAM
IMPULSE SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

...FOUR CORNERS/SRN RCKYS...
SCATTERED...MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION OCCURRING ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH GRT BASIN TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.