[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250117
SWODY1
SPC AC 250113

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
SZL 40 S OJC 25 WSW OJC 20 NE TOP 15 ESE FNB 30 WNW LWD 10 SE DSM 30
NE OTM 30 S MLI 25 SSW PIA 25 S SPI 10 SSE STL 25 E VIH 45 SSE SZL.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S
SGF 10 SW JLN 25 SW CNU 20 W EMP 30 SSE BIE 20 S OMA 35 SSW FOD 15
SW ALO 15 SSE DBQ 20 WNW MMO 10 NNE CMI 20 E SLO 20 W MDH 50 NE UNO
10 S SGF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
NEL 15 WNW BGM 50 WSW ART ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 15 ENE LCI 10 SSE
EWB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HRO 35
ENE MKO 45 NNW MLC 35 WNW ADM 10 WNW SPS 20 S LTS 10 WNW LTS 25 WNW
END 15 NNE HUT 15 N CNK 35 E GRI 15 NE OFK 15 WSW OTG 15 N MKT 40 SW
EAU 30 NW MSN 35 NNE LAF 40 S MIE 20 ESE LUK 30 NW CRW 15 SE CRW 25
WNW BKW 15 ENE 5I3 25 SSE OWB 15 WNW PAH 30 ESE UNO HRO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW 3B1 30 S 3B1 35
SE AUG ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS
...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25
WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N DDC 40 NNW GCK
45 NW ALS 20 S U17 30 SSW P38 35 SE TPH 35 W RNO 35 ESE MHS 50 ENE
EUG 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA 30 ENE 3DU 20 SE COD 35 NE DGW
40 NE CDR 25 SSW PIR 35 SE MBG 10 W BIS 40 ESE ISN 70 NW ISN
...CONT... 65 N DVL 15 SSE GFK 65 NNE EAU 20 W MTW 35 NW FWA 15 E
DAY 10 S ZZV 10 N PIT 25 NE FKL 45 WSW BUF.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA...WRN IL
AND NRN MO...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
KS...MO...IL...IA AND FAR SE NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OZARK PLATEAU AND OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SIG AREA ON HAIL GRAPHIC

...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU/WRN OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA AND NE KS. IN
ADDITION...A SQUALL-LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IA AND
FAR NW MO. THIS LARGE AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA RESULTING IN TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR TOPEKA KS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 4600 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL
MO AND THIS WILL FEED A SEVERE MCS AS IT RACES ESEWD THIS EVENING.
BACKED SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN
MO AND SRN IA AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. THE SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KT AND THIS
COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.5 C/KM) AND
HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE
ST.LOUIS AREA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE.

THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING EWD
INTO CNTRL OK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR OK CITY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 3500 J/KG...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM. THIS WILL
FAVOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS THE SUPERCELLS
GRADUALLY GUST OUT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.


...NEW ENGLAND STATES...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN
NY...MA...NH AND VT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS ERN NJ.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET OVER WRN NY. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS SRN NY AND NJ. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MA...NH AND VT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER
AROUND -14C. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.