[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 242147
SWODY1
SPC AC 242144

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

VALID 242150Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
LNK OMA DSM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 10 S TOP
35 ENE CNK 25 WSW LNK.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
SUX 40 ESE FOD 25 E CID 35 ENE MLI 25 SSW MMO DEC BLV 20 S TBN 20 SE
JLN 30 WNW BVO 20 SW ICT 30 NNW SLN 30 E HSI OFK 20 ESE SUX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB 10
W HON 25 N ATY 30 SSW AXN MSP MSN CGX 45 W LUK 55 WSW LOZ BNA ARG
HRO TUL SPS 30 NW ABI 50 NE BGS 40 ESE LBB CDS 15 NNW CSM P28 15 E
RSL BUB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW
EFK 15 NNW PSM 10 SSE PVD ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF MRB PSB 35 NW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL GFK CWA BEH
DAY ZZV 25 S YNG 20 ENE ERI ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB
...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS
...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25
WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N GCK LAA 30 N ALS
4HV P38 TPH RBL 60 NNE MFR OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA FCA
35 NNE WEY WRL 50 WNW CDR 50 NE CDR 30 SSE PIR 35 E MBG 70 NE MOT.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN
NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER
MO/MID MS VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN
PLAINS/MIDWEST/PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES/NERN U.S....

AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK FURTHER EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND

--OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY--

...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
AS OF 19Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NE OF RSL. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WEST OF ICT AND THEN
SWWD INTO WRN OK/TX NEAR LTS/AGS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NEWD FROM
THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXTENDS SEWD
FROM NWRN INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. EAST OF THE LOW/SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN 1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
NEB/NERN KS/SWRN IA/NWRN MO. REFERENCE WW 273 AND 275.

THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AND SWRN MO/SERN IA AND WEST
CENTRAL IL.

...OK/TX...
EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASING MORE MOIST DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS MORE
STRONGLY CAPPED THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...A DRYLINE BULGE IS
INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN END AND ICT AND WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BEHIND THE
DRYLINE AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP. ANY CU THAT DEVELOP AND MOVES INTO THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. A SMALL
TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE
DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BACK WWD OVERNIGHT AND SINCE STORMS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET.

...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...
SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WRN NY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN OH. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR IS ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF 55-65 KT
MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z AS ADDITIONAL HEATING RESULTS IN MORE DESTABILIZATION.
THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IF A
LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. REFERENCE WW 277.

..IMY.. 05/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.