[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241639
SWODY1
SPC AC 241635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
LNK OMA 40 NNW OTM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU
20 WSW TOP 35 ENE CNK 35 WSW LNK.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
CNK 20 NNW OLU 25 NE OFK 10 NW CID 40 ENE MLI 25 S MMO 20 S DEC ALN
25 NNW EMP 20 SSE CNK 40 N CNK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
ABR 50 W AXN 35 WSW STC 20 WNW RFD 25 SSE CGX 15 ESE LAF 30 SSW HUF
35 SW TBN 20 N JLN 40 WSW TUL SPS 45 E BGS 30 S LBB 55 N CDS 15 NNE
GAG 10 S RSL 15 ESE BUB 35 NW ABR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
EFK 15 SE RUT 30 NE EWB ...CONT... ORF 10 NE EKN 30 NNW JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB
...CONT... 35 SE JAX 30 SW GNV 20 NNW CTY 65 SSW AGS 15 NE MCN 15
SSE LGC 25 W TOI 40 SSW SEM 40 W SEM 10 SE TCL 30 E MKL 50 SE FYV 50
WNW MLC 25 NNW MWL 20 SW BWD 25 WNW JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SE
ELP 10 ESE ROW 20 S CAO 10 ENE LHX 25 WNW COS 40 WNW GJT 30 W 4HV 25
NNE CDC 60 W P38 70 NNE NID 60 S BIH 55 SSE TVL 20 ESE RBL 45 SE MHS
50 SE EUG 25 SW PDX 15 NNE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 50
WNW GTF 20 NNE BZN 50 SW BIL 35 WNW SHR 25 WNW GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE
CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10
SSE TVF 35 SW HIB 15 NE EAU 40 NE MKE 30 SSE AZO 20 NNE DAY 10 NNW
CMH ERI.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN
NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER
MO/MID MS VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST SWD
INTO SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...

--OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY--

...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
AS OF 15Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS
WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN
KS TO VICINITY OF MKC AND INTO CNTRL MO. TRAILING DRYLINE STRETCHED
SWD INTO WRN KS /E OF DDC/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD TO NEAR TOP BY EARLY
EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN IA
SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WHILE DRYLINE MIXES EWD WITH BULGE DEVELOPING
OVER CNTRL INTO NERN KS AT THIS TIME.

WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NEB/ WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
/OVER SWRN KS/ WILL EJECT NEWD INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY EVENING.

FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM ERN SD SWD INTO ERN NEB.
40-50KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /PRESENT
ACROSS KS/NEB/ INTO DEVELOPING TSTM COMPLEX WITH SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STORMS
DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
SURFACE-BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY SWD
ALONG DRYLINE AS SWRN KS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. VERY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F/
HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO NERN KS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY. EXPECT MLCAPES TO APPROACH 3000-4000 J/KG
OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA SWD INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS WITHIN
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.

BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS POTENT
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH
THOSE STORMS WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED.

EXPECT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MCS /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/
OVERNIGHT EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL.
IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD  CIRCULATIONS.

...OK/TX...
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS THIS MORNING E OF DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON E OF
DRYLINE FROM N-CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS
THIS AREA IS STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND
POTENTIALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS
RESPOND TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z ETA GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER NRN
MEXICO WHICH WILL EMERGE INTO WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
PROFILERS AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGEST BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM TUS TO ABQ TO AMA AND IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING.

...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN ONTARIO INTO WRN/CNTRL PA THIS MORNING
WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TODAY WITH REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING
NY/PA EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EWD TO VICINITY OF E-CNTRL NY BY 25/00Z.
SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD WITH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN MA/SERN NY SWD ACROSS
ERN PA/NJ INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND AXIS OF 55-65KTS AT 500MB FROM
PA/NY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY STRONG
DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. MOST
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WILL LARGELY BE
LIMITED BY SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS. FARTHER S OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...HOWEVER
FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN INITIATE.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 05/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.