[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222004
SWODY1
SPC AC 222001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
MCK IML 40 WSW MHN 10 S ANW 20 SE YKN 30 SSE SPW 25 NW ALO DBQ MLI
LWD 20 SE BIE 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART 35
SSE SLK RUT EEN BDL 35 NNE EWR TTN HGR ZZV DAY 20 SSW HUF 10 SW BLV
10 W VIH CNU PNC 40 W SPS 55 SSE CDS 10 WSW CDS 40 SE DDC 25 W RSL
40 WSW HLC 10 SW GLD LIC 30 ENE DEN DGW SHR BIL 70 WNW MLS 45 S GDV
REJ MHE MKT CWA TVC OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB 45 ESE LUL
20 WSW MSL 50 NNE MSL 25 WNW BNA 35 N HOP 45 SW BLV 40 NNW SGF 20 N
TUL 40 S OKC 10 WNW MWL 35 SW BWD 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 25 E
MRF MAF 40 NW CDS 30 NNW GAG 25 N DDC 50 NW GCK 25 NE COS 15 NW DRO
10 S U17 35 N P38 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 35 N
PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CTB 35 SSE HVR
45 SSW GGW 30 ESE SDY 20 N BIS 50 NW ABR 25 ENE ABR 45 NE ATY 70 SSW
DLH 30 WNW IMT 40 E PLN ...CONT... 40 W MSS 30 SSE AUG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO NY/PA...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/FRONT RANGE IN
CO/WY AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE EWD ONTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER
NWRN KS THAT IS EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING 50S DEW POINTS WWD THROUGH SRN
NEB AND NWRN KS.  HIGH BASED CU...WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER ECNTRL
CO/NWRN KS WILL ALSO LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS AS THEY MOVE ATOP THE
MOIST AXIS BETWEEN HILL CITY KS AND MCCOOK NEB.

BOUNDARY LAYER ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SRN IA INTO SRN NEB HAS DESTABILIZED AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD
INTO CNTRL/SRN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/
EVENING.  INITIATION PROBABLY WILL OCCUR VCNTY DRYLINE BULDGE ALONG
THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB...ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER CAP NOTED ON
THE 18Z KTOP SOUNDING.

VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF
MLCAPE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. 
THOUGH 18Z RAOBS/PROFILERS ARE SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE.  THE MORE
DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WILL TEND TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT IN NRN
NEB AND NWRN HALF OF IA WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...BUT
STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP/MOVE
ENEWD THROUGH IA AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY BY MORNING WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA.


SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE SWD INTO
WRN OK.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS NOT MIXED OUT AND 60S DEW
POINTS ARE HOLDING GROUND AS FLOW BACKS ACROSS SWRN OK.  LATEST VSBL
IMAGERY SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO SRN
KS ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THESE SHOULD GROW INTO ISOLD TSTMS THAT WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLD TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH BASES WILL TEND TO BE HIGH.  THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH 03-05Z AS DIURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE AND DRYLINE
RETREATS.

...MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINEAR MCS IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER
NRN IND...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER LOWER MI VCNTY WARM FRONT. 
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND GIVEN MEAN
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY PROFILE IN THE TROP...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND INTO NY/PA
OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
IN CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG THE
FRONT /DTX VWP 0-1KM SHEAR MODIFIED FOR THUMB AREA CONDITIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30 KTS/.

...SERN STATES...
NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. FLOW
IS VERY WEAK THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND TSTMS ARE MULTICELL PULSE
SEVERE TSTMS.  SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS
RAOBS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO NC MAY FAVOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...AS STORMS
COLLAPSE...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.  THREATS FOR SEVERE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN.

..RACY.. 05/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.