[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210108
SWODY1
SPC AC 210104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
SYR 15 NW PSB 25 NW CMH 20 E CMI 50 ESE OMA 30 ESE GRI 15 SSE IML 35
SSW GLD 30 SSE CVS 25 SSE FST 50 NNW MRF 10 NNE ROW 45 N TCC 15 WNW
LAA 25 SE FCL CYS 15 SSW CDR 20 W VTN 25 NNW YKN 30 WNW MCW LNR 25
NE MKE 35 SSW OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 20 NNW RTN
20 W DEN 20 E RWL 20 SE RKS 40 WSW VEL 40 E U24 75 SW ELY 30 NW TPH
65 SE TVL 40 NE SAC 40 ENE UKI 45 NW UKI 30 SSE SLE 25 NE SEA 55 ENE
BLI ...CONT... 75 NW ISN 45 SE GDV 50 SE Y22 40 SSW ABR 25 S EAU 15
SE APN ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NW EEN 25 SSE HGR 15 N PSK 45 SW BLF
25 SSE JKL 30 ENE SDF 20 SE MTO 20 SSW SPI 20 NW FNB 15 ENE HLC 25
NW GAG 30 WNW LBB 30 ESE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX/ERN NM AND ERN
CO...ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST AND ERN GREAT LAKES....

...MIDWEST/LOWER MI TO ERN GREAT LAKES...
FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SWRN IA HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE
TO BREACH INTENSE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MUCH
MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS TAKING HOLD FROM ERN IA TO NRN IL. 00Z DVN
RAOB...WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 34KT...IS
PROBABLY QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF PREFRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION EAST OF THE MS RIVER TO NRN OH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS IN LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/GENERALLY WEAK SRH AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE HAZARD SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SPREADS SEWD.

...NERN CO/SERN WY TO NEB AND WRN IA (LATE)...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAY LONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING HAS
FINALLY RESULTED IN SUPERCELL INITIATION OVER SRN WELD COUNTY THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS
GIVEN PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE IN DENVER CYCLONE AND WEAK INHIBITION
EXHIBITED ON EVENING RAOB. CELLS WITH ENE MOTION WILL ENCOUNTER
STRONG HELICITY WITH 0-3KM SRH ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 250 M2/S2. DESPITE
RELATIVELY HIGH LFC AROUND 2KM...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS TO THE EAST OF CO...ACROSS MUCH OF
KS...SRN NEB...AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...EITHER ONE OF TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS MAY UNFOLD TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE CAP AND THIS
WARRANTS HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB
AND IA. 1) ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CO INCREASES IN COVERAGE
AND AN MCS SPREADS NEWD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ON INTENSIFYING
LLJ...OR 2) INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AIDS
IN NEW ELEVATED STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP...AND DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL TAP ABUNDANT MUCAPE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

...HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO/ERN NM TO WEST TX...
PRIMARILY DIURNAL FORCING/HEATING ON THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH HAS
SUPPORTED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. A
FEW CELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO FEED OFF A NARROW 
AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND COLLAPSING
STORMS COULD ALSO BRING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 05/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.