[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180106
SWODY1
SPC AC 180103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
JHW 30 N PIT 30 NNE ZZV 15 WNW LAF 15 SW SPI 30 SW CNU 30 N GAG 20
NW EHA 40 S LHX 10 S PUB 25 WSW LIC 35 ESE LIC 50 SSW GLD 45 SW HLC
25 S BIE 50 SW FOD 35 SSE CWA 10 SSE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 WSW PGO
60 NNW LIT 35 WSW UNO 15 ESE SGF 45 WNW FYV GAG CDS 45 SE LBB BGS 60
E FST 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 45 SSE LVS RTN 15
ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 45 NW PUC 45 N ENV 50 WSW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW
UKI EKA ...CONT... 65 WNW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 40 E 81V 65 E CDR 30
E OFK 10 SW RST 15 WNW CWA 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 10 SSW BTV
30 WNW ALB 15 W ISP ...CONT... 20 E ECG 30 W GSB 40 N SAV 35 S AYS
50 NW ORL 30 NNE FMY 20 S FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...IA/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY EWD TO GREAT LAKES REGION...
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN WI TO SRN IA INTO CENTRAL KS TO A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EWD TONIGHT WHILE SECOND TROUGH MOVES ESEWD TOWARD UPPER GREAT
LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  AS A RESULT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING CENTRAL/SRN
LOWER MI TO NRN IL/SRN IA BY 12Z.  WSWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AT 35-40 KT FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO SRN LOWER
MI AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES AREA. 
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN IA TO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE
EWD OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/
NRN IND/FAR NWRN OH BY 12Z.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO KS AREA...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND SSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS FROM WRN TX/WRN OK TO 50 KT OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN...MOVES TOWARD THE SRN
ROCKIES.  35 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP STRONG LLJ WILL SUPPORT
AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER WRN-CENTRAL KS.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EWD ACROSS KS AS THE LLJ VEERS.

...GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION...
ONGOING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY NEWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS TO SRN PA/MD/VA ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/
STABILIZES.  UNTIL THEN...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THIS LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 05/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.