[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122249
SWODY1
SPC AC 122242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35
WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W
CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY
...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW
CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20
W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN
40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF
35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE...RETRANSMIT GRAPHICS

REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM
DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA.  OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW
OVER EXTREME NWRN OK.  SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW
SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.  MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK...

AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND
CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS.  INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE
60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP
TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND
NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2
INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL
KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT
AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING
SHEAR PROFILES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT
FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG.
 LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.


...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ...

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN
VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS.  STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS
EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL
POOL.  AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.