From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 05:56:02 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 00:56:02 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405060554.i465sxL28641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060552 SWODY1 SPC AC 060549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW JFK ABE AOO HLG MIE DNV PIA OTM 45 W LWD BIE HSI GRI OFK FOD LNR 35 N MKG 30 SSE OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 15 W MPV 10 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP ALM 4CR 25 WNW TCC LHX CYS DGW SHR 10 SSE LVM 10 SE BTM LMT MFR RDM PDT 10 SSE 3TH GTF SDY BIS FAR HIB 125 NNE CMX ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 3B1 15 E BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL TTN CXY DCA 30 SSW NHK 30 WNW ECG FLO 35 NW CHS 40 ENE SAV SSI JAX GNV CTY MAI MGM AUO MCN AND PSK EKN PKB DAY MTO UIN LWD CNK DDC PVW LBB 65 NNE ABI MWL ACT 10 SSE SAT 40 W MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.... SPLIT IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF BLOCK OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...MERGING BRANCHES OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL...EXTENDING EASTWARD NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN U.S. BORDER. INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN IN EAST-WEST BAND AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN STATES. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE... PRIMARILY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... INCREASING CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NEW YORK STATE. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...AS CAP SUPPRESSES CONVECTION EARLY AND ALLOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...JUST AHEAD OF BASE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 06/12Z...JUST TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...WITH FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MID-LEVEL CAP MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALONG FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO PERSIST IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO VICINITY OF FRONT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ...MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH...THAT WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS... WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. THOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL BE QUITE WEAK...SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATE IN STRENGTH ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY ENHANCE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO NEAR DRY LINE...MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORT STOCKTON AREA. ...NORTHWESTERN U.S... LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THOUGH LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OREGON...BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ..KERR.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 12:52:04 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 07:52:04 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405061251.i46Cp0I10100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061248 SWODY1 SPC AC 061244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ART 40 SSE SLK 20 ENE ALB 25 SE MSV 25 NNE ZZV 30 WNW SPI FNB 25 ESE LNK 30 ENE SUX 30 SW ESC 80 ENE APN . GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP ALM 30 NW 4CR 15 N LVS 10 ENE RTN 10 WNW LHX 20 SW CYS 25 S CPR 35 ENE BPI 55 WSW BPI 25 ESE BYI 25 N SUN 60 NNE BOI 35 WNW BNO LMT 20 WSW MFR 15 SW PDX 35 SSW DLS 25 WSW PDT 3TH GTF 20 WNW SDY 25 SSW P24 40 NE MBG 55 NNE ATY 40 SE DLH 25 S ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 10 SSW BHB ...CONT... 25 ENE ACY DCA 35 N SHD 50 SE PKB 35 S CMH 15 WNW HUF 40 SE UIN 10 ENE MHK 15 SSE DDC 30 SE AMA 35 ENE LBB 25 SW ABI 50 E SJT 10 WSW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD...ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS JET IS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO QUEBEC TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD AND BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD. ...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES WWD TO IA... ONGOING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF WI SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS NERN WI INTO NRN LOWER MI FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI. SRN HALF OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IL SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD. INFLUX OF MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH NEAR 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG USING A 80/57 SURFACE PARCEL. WEAK UPSTREAM JETLET ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS WILL MIGRATE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. AS THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE REGION...CINH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION VCNTY LAKE MI EWD INTO LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTOR WILL INITIALLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY OVER LOWER MI. A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. EVENING KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH FORWARD AND BACKWARD PROPAGATION GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. ANY BOW ECHO/LEWPS WILL MOVE INTO SRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE AREA TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TSTMS WILL ATTEMPT TO BACKBUILD UPSTREAM ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD NRN IL AND ERN IA. THIS FAR WEST...CINH MAY REMAIN STRONG TO LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR OVERNIGHT TSTMS/POSSIBLE HAIL TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY STATE... TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION COULD BECOME EFFICIENT FORWARD PROPAGATORS THIS EVENING GIVEN POSITION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS. AS USUALLY THE CASE...EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS TO BE A LEAST A THREAT OF BOW ECHOS/LEWPS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY STATE AND POSSIBLY NRN PA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVE TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK CITY AREA OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... FRONT WILL SETTLE TO ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE VCNTY SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL KS WHERE CINH MAY BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE A HIGH BASED TSTM. GIVEN A STORM OR TWO...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE MO RVR. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX/SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ONLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..RACY/GUYER.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 20:03:51 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 15:03:51 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405062002.i46K2kM31687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061959 SWODY1 SPC AC 061956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ART 40 SSE SLK 15 NNW PSF 30 NNE EWR 20 NE LBE 40 WSW PIA FNB 30 SSW OMA 45 NNE OMA 30 W MKG 90 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP ALM 25 NW 4CR 10 NW LVS 15 ENE RTN 10 NW LHX 25 N FCL 25 S CPR 30 ENE BPI 55 E MLD 30 ESE BYI 35 W SUN 60 SSE BKE 50 WSW BNO 10 WSW LMT 10 W MFR 30 S EUG 15 SSW SLE 15 N PDX 40 NNW DLS 35 NNW PDT 10 SSE 3TH 40 SE HVR 20 WNW SDY 30 SW P24 30 NNE PIR 30 NE MHE 10 SSE MKT 40 NE RST 45 SSE ESC 80 ENE APN ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 15 S BHB ...CONT... 20 ENE ACY 15 SE EKN 30 W BLF 15 NNE JKL 35 NNW LUK 10 SSW SPI 30 WSW TOP 35 SE DDC 30 SE AMA 30 SE PVW 25 WSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S..... ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NE US... A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SRN IA AND FARTHER SW INTO KS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS ADVECTED NWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM IA EWD THROUGH OH AND SRN MI. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAD ADVECTED EWD INTO MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY...AND LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN MUCH OF WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD IN THIS REGION. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING FROM OH NWWD THROUGH NRN IND AND EXTREME SRN LOWER MI WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING ON ERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE FROM SERN MI/NRN OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR BY EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SEWD...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZES IN A WEAKER CAP REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH PARTS OF OH...PA AND NY DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT SURFACE BASED INITIATION. HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN POST FRONTAL AREA BY THIS EVENING WHERE COOLER MID THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT WEAKER CAP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...HIGH PLAINS... DEEP MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...SW TX... SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE DEEP MIXING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. LATEST WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Fri May 7 00:42:05 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 19:42:05 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405070041.i470f2400309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070039 SWODY1 SPC AC 070035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART GFL PSF ABE LBE 10 ENE UNI CMI LWD LNK 50 NW OFK YKN SPW DBQ 30 WSW GRR 20 ENE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 15 S BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY HGR EKN CRW LUK MTO MKC HUT GCK AKO DGW 10 N RIW JAC 10 SSE LVM 10 WSW OLF 40 NW ISN MOT JMS RWF 40 SW EAU OSH MBL 10 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 45 N 4CR 40 SSE RTN 40 N TCC 45 N ROW CNM HOB 10 NNW MAF 40 ESE FST DRT 40 W COT LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY... DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC BLOCK...MERGING BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW EXTEND IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. NORTHERN BRANCH...JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...REMAINS MOST PROMINENT...WITH INTENSE MID/UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY MIGRATING ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE U.S...BUT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING SOUTH OF JET HAS BEEN...FOR THE MOST PART...INHIBITIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO AREAS OF NEW YORK TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH ...NOW CROSSING MICHIGAN...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT MAY MITIGATE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY SHEARED 40+ KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN WAKE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CAP WILL STILL BE INHIBITIVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER LATER THIS EVENING...ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS AXIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS SHOULD FORM ABOVE INVERSION ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...THERMAL RIDGE ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 05:52:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 00:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405070552.i475qX431688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070550 SWODY1 SPC AC 070547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE GSB GSO BLF HTS LUK IND DNV 30 NE PIA BRL LWD FNB CNK EAR BBW ANW 9V9 ATY STC 45 NNE EAU MTW GRR TOL CAK ABE 20 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF GDP 4CR LHX BFF SHR 25 NE COD 10 SE JAC 25 WNW SLC ELY TPH TVL RBL DLS 30 N 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NNE GFK BJI HIB IMT 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW ERI BFD BAF 10 E BOS ...CONT... ILM 45 S CLT AVL 5I3 BMG BMI P35 MHK P28 LTS ABI 10 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID MO VALLEY.... ...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC BLOCK...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MERGING BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW WILL EXTEND IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. NORTHERN BRANCH WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT... WITH AN INTENSE JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/ NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING A DEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...ALREADY PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES TODAY. FRONTAL ZONE HAS ALREADY BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO NEW JERSEY AT 07/12Z. AS SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY MIDDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA. DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. THOUGH FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. OTHER SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR FRONT UPSTREAM INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... WHICH MAY TRACK BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES ON WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. ...MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN WAKE OF EASTERN CANADIAN LOW/TROUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES/PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH HAS SURGED INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOIST/ POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR ON 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET LIKELY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION OVER BROAD AREA OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO STRONG CAPPING LIKELY TO STILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED...FORCING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING IN WARM SECTOR AND NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. STRONGEST LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN/ EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON/NORTHWEST NEVADA INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ..KERR.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 16:29:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 11:29:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405071629.i47GTwX13349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071627 SWODY1 SPC AC 071623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE GSB GSO BLF 20 SW HTS 35 SW LUK 15 NNW DNV 30 SW MLI 35 WNW OTM 45 ESE OMA 25 NW BIE 15 SW HSI BBW ANW 9V9 ATY STC 45 WSW RHI 35 NNE MTW 20 ENE GRR 25 NNE TOL 15 SSE YNG ABE 20 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 30 E HTL 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... ERI 30 E AVP JFK ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 40 WNW MBG 25 NNW PIR 50 WNW HON 35 SW BJI 45 WNW HIB 50 ESE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 20 NW TLH 35 NNE VLD SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 SSE ALM 15 N 4CR 35 SSW RTN 40 N LHX 20 NNE SNY 40 S GCC WRL 10 SE JAC 55 SW MLD ELY 45 N TPH TVL 55 ESE EKA OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE OAJ 35 SSW GSO 35 ESE TRI 20 WNW JKL 25 SSE BMG 30 SSW BRL 30 WSW STJ 25 S ICT 25 NNW LTS 65 N ABI 45 WNW SEP 50 WSW TYR 50 NE CLL 50 WNW HOU 45 SSE VCT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST WLYS ACROSS SRN CANADA EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO NERN U.S. UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE PAC NW WITH A S/WV TROUGH MOVING INLAND BY TONIGHT. POLAR HIGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS NRN PA TO CENTRAL IL SEWD TODAY. WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT INTO SRN NEB WILL BEGIN WORKING NWD AS WARM FRONT BY TONIGHT AS SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...7-7.5 C/KM... HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR S OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF FRONT FROM NEB EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST... CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG AND N OF COLD FRONT THIS AM ERN OH VALLEY...WHERE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WITH STRONG HEATING OCCURRING S OF COLD FRONT EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES TO 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 50KT COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY E/ESEWD THRU THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THRU MUCH OF AFTERNOON. WITH FRONT SHIFTING N ACROSS ERN NEB/IA WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN MN/WI TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES COULD INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN WI TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DO INDICATE A SEVERE MCS COULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF CASCADES. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND HIGH BASED STORMS...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY. ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES ALL BUT ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE. WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING NEWD W TX COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION...HOWEVER ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 20:19:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 15:19:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405072020.i47KK4q14179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072017 SWODY1 SPC AC 072013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW HSE 10 SSW DAN 40 NE SDF UIN 25 SE BIE 40 S ANW 9V9 65 ENE STC 35 ESE CWA 10 WSW ARB 30 SSE FKL 15 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 20 NW TLH 35 NNE VLD SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 30 E HTL 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... 40 WSW ERI 25 SSW IPT 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SE OAJ 10 NW LOZ 40 WSW EVV 30 E COU 25 ESE TOP 25 ENE GAG 50 NE ABI 40 N CLL 30 NE PSX ...CONT... 50 W MRF 20 SSE ALM 15 N 4CR 35 SSW RTN 40 N LHX 20 NNE SNY 40 S GCC WRL 10 SE JAC 55 SW MLD ELY 45 N TPH TVL 55 ESE EKA OTH ...CONT... 50 N MOT 55 SW DVL 35 NNE MBG 30 ESE MBG 15 WSW ABR 50 SSW BJI 30 NNW HIB 50 ESE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...ERN NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT...PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...EXTENDS FROM PA THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO SE NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OF NERN KS AND SERN NEB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG FARTHER EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF NRN IL THROUGH SRN WI. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME SW IA. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY...WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING SEWD THROUGH WV. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN VA AND IS WEAKLY CAPPED AND SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT SEWD INTO VA. OTHER STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD SEWD. OVERNIGHT... STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COULD SPREAD INTO THIS AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ...MT... HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM. STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 00:41:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 19:41:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405080041.i480fdq02189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080039 SWODY1 SPC AC 080036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI DAN LYH 40 NNW SSU CRW DEC P35 30 SSE OMA LNK GRI BBW ANW 9V9 BRD RHI LAN MFD MGW BWI 20 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX HTL 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 NE CLE LBE 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... 10 NE ILM 10 N CLT 30 SSW 5I3 SDF ALN 45 NE COU MKC PNC LTS 60 SSW CDS BGS SJT TPL CLL 20 SW GLS ...CONT... 50 W MRF 35 WNW GDP 50 SE LVS 10 NW CAO 30 E LAA 10 N HLC MCK IML SNY DGW CPR 10 W RIW 10 WNW OGD 15 WSW EKO 15 W WMC 15 E 4LW 45 N MFR OTH ...CONT... 50 N MOT 30 NNW HIB 50 ESE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.... ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... MORE PROMINENT BRANCH OF WESTERLIES REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE JET STREAK CONTINUING TO NOSE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH...NOW JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WILL MIGRATE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA. STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... FRONT EXTENDING OUT THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ...THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN WAKE OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 08/06Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION... LIFTED PARCELS EMANATING FROM EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPEAR LIKELY TO POSSESS CAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN STATES... ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ALSO APPEAR MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING SHORTLY. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 05:58:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 00:58:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405080558.i485wbq19596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080556 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF ELM IPT 25 NNW CXY HLG CAK MMO DSM BIE CNK EAR ANW VTN 10 NW 4BQ DIK 10 NE BIS 20 ESE JMS AXN RWF RST MKG MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE JAX 10 WSW CTY ...CONT... 20 SSW CEW AUO 50 SSW TYS 10 NW 5I3 20 SW UNI 10 SW DAY 15 WNW SPI STJ 35 WNW EMP 20 ESE GAG 30 NE BGS 25 N SJT DUA TXK 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 50 W MRF CNM TCC 10 E SNY 55 NNE DGW 15 ENE COD SUN 10 ESE 4LW MFR 15 WNW ONP ...CONT... MSS 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 20 ENE ACY 10 N BWI 40 NNW RIC 15 S RIC 10 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.... MODELS INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MERGING BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW EAST OF BLOCK CONTINUING TO STRADDLE THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. NORTHERN BRANCH...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER ...STILL APPEARS TO BE MOST PROMINENT...WITH STRONGEST EMBEDDED JET STREAK PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER... UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG JET STREAK...EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER GREAT LAKES/ ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY UPPER JET STREAK STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT...FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES...THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL SLOW NORTHWARD RETREAT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MID-LEVEL WARMING ON WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN CAP ONCE AGAIN ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON FRONT NEAR THE IOWA/NEBRASKA BORDER..AND...BY LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL. RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. OVERNIGHT...LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS HEAVY RAIN BECOMES AN INCREASING THREAT IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY... FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LAKE ERIE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA/AND OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY... WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE NEAR LEE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA...LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK. EVOLUTION OF GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT...STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASING BASED ABOVE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTH CAROLINA... UPPER FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AND SURFACE FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 12:43:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 07:43:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405081243.i48Chbq19636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081241 SWODY1 SPC AC 081238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15 ENE PIA 30 S OTM 25 ENE BIE 40 NNW CNK 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NE 4BQ 25 WNW DIK 40 WNW BIS 25 ESE JMS 25 N AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SAV 55 ESE MCN 20 NNE ATL 60 SSE TYS 15 ENE HTS 30 NNW UNI 20 NE DAY 15 WNW SPI STJ 35 WNW EMP 20 ESE GAG 25 ENE BGS 25 WNW SJT 40 E SJT 25 SE BWD MLC 25 ESE UMN 20 NW ARG 30 S TXK 30 NNE GLS ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 10 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DLH 25 NE AUW 30 NW MBL 30 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BUF BDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 E ROW 45 NNW CAO 10 E SNY 55 NNE DGW 15 ENE COD 45 S 27U 50 NNW 4LW 55 SSE EUG 15 WNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 10 N BWI 40 NNW RIC 15 S RIC 10 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS TO WRN PA... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY... WLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS FOCUS FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADILY EWD MIGRATION OF ONGOING MCS ACROSS WI/LOWER MI INTO UPSTATE NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. MAJOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SUPPORT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION THUS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ERN-MOST CONVECTION...WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD UPSHEAR GENERATING ELEMENTS. FARTHER WEST...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS FREE TO CONVECT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS ALREADY SUPPORT A QUICK WARM UP WITH A NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE JUST OFF THE SFC THROUGH 500MB AT LBF. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL HAMPER STORM ORGANIZATION FOR SRN MOST ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE PARCELS WILL BE FREE TO CONVECT BY DIURNAL PEAK HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. WLY LARGE SCALE MEAN WIND WILL ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STRONG LLJ...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH TIME STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MCS/S ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS THAT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NWD ACROSS NEB/IA. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 16:22:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 11:22:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405081622.i48GMYq15432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081620 SWODY1 SPC AC 081616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15 ENE PIA 15 ESE OTM 20 ESE OMA 40 WNW BIE 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NNE OLF 55 NNE ISN 55 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 20 SSE AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ACY 15 NNW MRB 20 SSE EKN 15 NNE ROA 15 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 30 N BUF 15 SW POU 15 SW ISP ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 WNW RHI 50 SSW IMT 30 NE TVC 15 N OSC ...CONT... 15 WSW ELP 25 WSW 4CR CAO 10 SE LAA 40 ESE SNY 50 SSW GCC 50 ENE COD 20 SW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 35 W BWD 30 E DUA 20 SSE JLN 35 W UNO 40 ESE HRO 10 E SHV 45 WSW POE 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SAD 30 NW SAD 30 SW SOW 10 E SOW 65 E SOW 75 WNW TCS 50 ENE SAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 30 W CHS 30 WNW SSI 35 SSE VLD 25 SE TLH 25 N PFN 20 WSW ATL 20 SW UNI 15 S CMH 20 NNE IND 10 ESE DNV 40 W LWD 45 ENE HLC 30 WNW CDS 25 NE BGS 75 E FST 15 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN /CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY...... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY FAST WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF PAC NW COAST...HOWEVER A S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND AND WILL RAPIDLY CROSS MT INTO NRN HI PLAINS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD E OF APPALACHIANS TO VICINITY NC/SC BORDER WHILE W OF APPALACHIANS THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS OH TO CENTRAL IA AND NRN NEB. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SWRN NEB WITH TROUGH SWD THRU WRN KS WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT IN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST...MAINTAINING A STEADY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE. ...ERN NEB EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY... WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO MORE THAN 9C/KM ACROSS KS/NE/IA AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM IA INTO NEB...AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES VICINITY OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY DOES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS TO ALLOW SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD VICINITY AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO NRN OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ......NRN HIGH PLAINS... S/WV TROUGH PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT THIS PM WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WRN DAKOTAS. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON ERN MT. WITH MUCAPES UPWARD TO 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN ND BY THIS EVENING. ...CAROLINAS... HAVE ADDED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE VICINITY THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS NOW NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MDT/STG INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS THIS PM COULD RESULT IN LARGE HAIL. WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A MINIMAL RISK ATTM. ...WRN TX/NM BORDER AREA.. SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW NOW E OF AREA...THE MID AND UPPER FLOW W TX IS NLY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA EVEN WITH THE FLOW GENERALLY LESS THE 20KT AT ALL LEVELS. MDT/STG INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FORMING BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY AND E OF E SLOPES NM/SWRN TX MTNS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:55:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:55:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405081956.i48Ju5q32043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081954 SWODY1 SPC AC 081950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BUF 45 W ELM 25 W IPT 20 NE AOO 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15 ENE PIA 20 S OTM 30 SE OMA 40 WNW BIE 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 55 SW RAP 15 W 4BQ 50 NNE GGW 55 NNE ISN 65 N DVL 40 SSE JMS 25 SW AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SYR 20 NNW MSV 15 NE JFK ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY MRB 25 NNE SHD 15 N LYH DAN 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 WNW RHI 50 SSW IMT 25 W TVC 10 W OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 10 ENE SVC 30 NNW SAD 35 SW SOW 20 E SOW 40 S GNT 10 WNW SAF 30 ENE TAD 25 N LAA 40 SE SNY 45 W SHR 30 WSW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 35 W BWD 15 ENE SPS 45 NNE MKO 20 ENE FYV 50 SSE HRO 50 ESE SHV 35 ESE POE 20 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CHS 35 W CHS 15 NNW JAX 35 NNW CTY 30 N VLD 20 SW AGS 40 WNW AND 30 NNE HTS 30 SE DAY 15 WSW IND 25 NNW HUF 40 NE MKC 25 E RSL 60 N CDS 60 WSW SJT 30 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN /CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...ERN NEB EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB EWD ACROSS IA INTO EXTREME SRN LWR MI. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED IN IA. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...THE VICINITY OF THE E/W FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN IA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EWD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NEB AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS AND MIXES TO THE LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SUGGESTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ......NRN HIGH PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH MT. INCREASING SLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MODERATELY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AND SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. REFERENCE WW 162. ...CAROLINAS... THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY COOL...RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WEAK CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT MORE THAN A FEW STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. ...WRN TX/NM BORDER AREA.. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE MAINTAINING MID/UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL TX IS RESULTING IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ...WHICH IS ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FULL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL TX MAY BE RESULTING IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES NM/SWRN TX MTNS...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...HENCE THE VERY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..IMY.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 00:54:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 19:54:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405090054.i490skq09625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090052 SWODY1 SPC AC 090049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BUF 25 NW ITH 25 ESE ELM 20 ESE PSB 20 E PIT 20 SSW MFD 10 E MIE 10 ESE DNV 20 E SPI 40 SSE IRK 30 NW TOP 10 NE HLC 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 35 ESE REJ 40 SW DIK 60 N ISN 55 NNE ISN 60 N DVL 35 SW FAR 45 WNW RWF 15 NNE RST 20 N GRB HTL 55 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 35 WNW GFL 25 SSW PWM ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY MRB 25 NNE SHD 15 N LYH DAN 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 NNW RHI 10 SSW IMT 40 W PLN 15 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 15 E ALM 15 WNW 4CR 25 ENE LVS 30 ENE TAD 25 N LAA 40 SE SNY 45 W SHR 30 WSW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 40 NNW CHS 20 SE JAX 40 S VLD 25 NNE MGR 45 N MCN 50 E CHA 20 SW HTS 10 WSW LUK BMG 20 SW MTO 10 W SZL HUT 25 N CDS 15 SSW BGS 15 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 35 SE BWD 25 ESE SPS 25 SSW MKO FSM 10 WNW HOT 50 ESE SHV 35 ESE POE 15 WSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS... A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING CURRENTLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THOUGH QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM OVER WRN ND IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY DRIER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING TSTMS EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ND OVERNIGHT. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO CNTRL ND. OVER SD...CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE MORE SEWD ALONG PRE-EXISTING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SEWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AS OF 00Z. 00Z UNR SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS STILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...NEB AND IA... TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING FROM ERN NEB EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA ALONG AND S OF SURFACE FRONT WITH 00Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATING A MLCAPE OF AROUND 2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS /I.E. 15-25KTS AT 500MB/ ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED FROM OAX TO DMX...DEVIATE RIGHTWARD MOTION EXHIBITED BY SEVERAL STORMS IS ENHANCING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE WINDS WITH A THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...ONGOING TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE MORE SWD WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT EXTENDING INTO NERN KS/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. ...GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY... BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS WI HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY N OF SURFACE FRONT WITHIN COOLER/DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS...SWLY FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY /PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING/ ATOP SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT OVER NRN IND INTO OH INTO PA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS IND INTO OH WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EWD INTO PA WHERE STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY EXIST. ..MEAD.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 12:48:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 07:48:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405091248.i49Cmpq23616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091246 SWODY1 SPC AC 091243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 25 ESE HTL 15 ESE CID 10 NE FNB 20 N RSL 10 WSW DDC 20 NW LBL 45 E LAA 30 NW MCK 30 WSW MHE 55 N ATY 25 NNE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ORF 45 WSW MRB 15 NW LBE 25 ESE FKL 35 NE BFD 20 SSW BGM 15 SW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ART 10 NE ALB 30 SSE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FHU 20 SSW ABQ 20 W LVS 50 S LAA 45 WNW GLD 30 SSE SNY 35 NNE RWL 35 SE SUN 75 NE SVE 20 ENE RBL 15 SE EKA 15 E 4BK 30 NNW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 SSE 3DU 50 N SHR 30 SE 81V 35 SSE PHP 40 WNW PIR 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 ENE BWD 35 NNE MWL 15 ESE ADM 35 SW PGO 20 W TXK 15 E GGG 10 N LFK 45 ENE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 50 WNW FLO 35 NE MGR 25 NNE DHN 45 SE MEI 30 SSW GWO 50 NE LIT 25 ENE ARG 30 WNW HOP 15 SE BWG 35 S LEX 25 SSE LUK 25 NE IND 15 SSE UIN 10 SSE FLV 50 WSW P28 55 ESE LBB 30 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LLJ OVER CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAPID HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE FROM NWRN KS INTO WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FOCUSED MASS FIELDS ALONG BOUNDARY FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER MN BY 21Z. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONTAL FORCING...IT APPEARS STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPPER SPEED MAX DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE...ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NEWD/MIX DOWN AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IT APPEARS ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. EVENING ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO VEERING LLJ INTO MI. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO WRN KS WHERE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SLOWER MOVING LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... 12Z SOUNDING FROM WAL INDICATES DEEP WLY COMPONENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...7 C/KM FROM 850-500MB...THROUGH MID LEVELS. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FROM PA INTO NRN VA...IMMEDIATELY WEST OF COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT HAS YET TO RETREAT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEND TO FOCUS ALONG THIS DEMARKATION WHERE RAPID HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 16:23:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 11:23:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405091623.i49GNoq23147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091621 SWODY1 SPC AC 091618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW IWD 15 WNW VOK 15 S ALO 30 WNW DSM 20 SSW SUX 15 NNE FSD 45 ENE ATY 35 NNE BRD 35 SW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 15 NNW ORF 30 NE EKN 20 NNE HLG FDY 15 N FWA 45 N LAF 30 NNE PIA 30 S OTM 25 NNW STJ 20 ESE CNK 45 SW RSL 30 ENE LBL 35 N EHA 30 N GLD 25 S 9V9 30 NW ABR 20 NNW JMS 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE 30 SSE HEZ 15 NNW GLH 20 NW MEM 40 S PAH 25 NNE LOZ 45 W HTS 20 NE LUK 20 WSW IND 20 ENE IRK 40 N GAG 65 SSW GAG 65 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 30 SSW FTW 30 N FTW 20 SW BVO 35 SW JLN 30 NNE FYV 30 N SHV 30 NE GLS ...CONT... ILM 20 ENE FLO 15 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW DMN 25 S SVC 30 SE SAD 20 WNW SAD 30 WNW SOW 30 ENE 4SL 35 W CAO 35 SSW LAA 15 SE AKO 40 WSW SNY 10 NNE LAR 50 WSW RWL 15 SE RIW 15 E WRL 40 ESE 81V 30 S PHP 10 SW PIR 20 E MBG BIS 40 WSW P24 70 NE LWT 25 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MN WRN WI AND NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER WINDS TRAVERSING NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA MOVES EWD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN MT/NWRN ND SWEEPING SEWD REACHING NRN MN SWWD INTO NRN WY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THRU MN EWD INTO LOWER MI. AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MOIST AND EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY TO S OF WARM FRONT. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE STRONG HEATING IN WARM SECTOR...THE CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID AFTERNOON FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MDT RISK AREA. GREATEST INITIAL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VICINITY WARM FRONT AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM SERN ND SWWD INTO N CENTRAL NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY WARM FRONT. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS AND PROPAGATE E/SE THIS EVENING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES. ....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK VICINITY AND S OF WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO SRN LWR MI. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES NEAR WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ...PA/DELMARVA/NJ... REF MCD 613 WARM FRONT RETURNING NWD IN THIS REGION AS WELL. SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN FURTHER W...HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE CAP ERODES. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTI-CELL WIND AND HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR IN THE REGION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST E OF SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE. BY MID AFTERNOON THIS LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM SWRN KS SSWWD INTO TX BIG BEND. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE MOST ANY WHERE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING HOURS. ...SERN U.S... REF MCD 612 STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. CAP IS ALREADY WEAK SO STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 20:11:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 15:11:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405092011.i49KBSq01268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092009 SWODY1 SPC AC 092006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW IWD 30 WNW LSE 40 ENE MCW 20 SE GRI 10 WSW BUB 30 ENE MHE 45 ENE ATY 20 NE BRD 60 SW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 20 SE ORF 20 SSW CHO 25 SSW LYH CLT 25 SE AND 15 SW AHN 30 ENE RMG 15 E CHA TYS BKW EKN 15 NNE HLG FWA 45 ESE MMO 25 NNE UIN 10 S MKC ICT 20 SSW P28 35 E LBL 55 WSW GLD 15 NNW SNY AIA 20 N MHN 20 SE 9V9 25 NNW ABR 30 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 SW SOW GNT 50 E TAD 10 ENE LHX 45 E GUC 20 N GUC 30 S CAG RWL 30 S CPR 40 W CDR 30 WNW VTN 9V9 40 WNW ABR 20 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS BID ...CONT... 40 N HSE 30 ESE LYH 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB JAN 25 ENE GLH MEM MKL BNA LOZ HTS 20 SW PKB ZZV 30 N DAY 15 WSW MIE 20 ENE MTO 15 WSW STL 25 N SGF 15 N FYV SHV 15 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE END 50 ESE GAG 40 S GAG CDS 30 N SJT 60 ENE JCT 45 E DAL 45 W MKO 35 SE PNC 15 SE END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA/CENTRAL AND SRN MN AND NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN MN/ERN SD/ NWRN NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WEST CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO NERN NEB ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ...BUT MAINLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI NWWD INTO NRN MN. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SELY ACROSS WRN KS. HIGH BASED CU/CB HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN WY/SWRN NEB AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL NEB AND THEN TRACKING EWD AS AN MCS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/NRN KS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. ....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF AN MCV LOCATED IN SRN LAKE MI. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170. ...PA/DELMARVA/NJ... WARM FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWD WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL PA... THOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED COVERAGE THUS FAR. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS S/SW OF THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCT HAIL/WIND. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TX PANHANDLE ...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK. ...APPLACHAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DRY AIR ALOFT. ..IMY.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 01:12:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 20:12:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405100112.i4A1Coq30772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100110 SWODY1 SPC AC 100107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 20 W BGM 10 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 SW DCA 45 WSW MRB 10 ENE HLG 40 SSW FDY 35 ENE LAF 10 N BMI 40 WSW BRL 15 ESE FNB CNK 45 N GCK 50 NE LAA 30 WNW IML 15 SSW MHN 60 SSW MHE 20 E BKX 25 E AXN 40 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID ...CONT... 40 N HSE 25 NE RDU 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB 40 N LFT 10 SSE ELD 40 WSW ARG 25 SW CGI 45 NE PAH 15 SW LEX HTS 20 SW PKB 25 SE CMH 45 WNW LUK 15 ESE HUF 35 NE SLO 35 W STL 35 S SZL 15 WNW END 15 NE CDS 10 SSE DRT ...CONT... DUG 35 SE SOW GNT 50 E TAD 10 ENE LHX 30 WSW COS 35 ENE ASE 25 NW 4FC 35 WSW LAR 55 SSE DGW 40 W CDR 50 S PHP 9V9 10 WNW ABR 45 ENE JMS 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HQM 35 SW YKM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS/NEB NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN EWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION... ...MN/WI SWWD INTO WRN KS... MATURE BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS CURRENTLY FROM W-CNTRL WI SWWD INTO SERN MN /S OF THE TWIN CITIES/ MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD AT 40-50KTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF CWA TO N OF MSN AS OF 00Z. HERE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FED INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM BY STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MN/NWRN IA...AND FROM N-CNTRL INTO SWRN NEB. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 55-65F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG PER 00Z OAX SOUNDING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS / MCS/S OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEB INTO IA AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. OVER WRN KS...HIGH-BASED DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING ISOLATED...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES MI ESEWD INTO PA/NJ... LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN IL/NRN IND IS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO ONTARIO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY FROM CHI EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI REMAINS CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS WILL SUPPORT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND/OR JUST TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS /CURRENTLY OVER WRN WI/ MAY APPROACH WRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT FARTHER SE OVER PA...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS NJ/MD AND NRN DE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY 03 OR 04Z AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE MCD 625. ...ERN NM/WRN TX... MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS FAR WRN TX INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM... AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20KTS AT 500 MB/ ELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND COMPONENT IS RESULTING IN 30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 03Z OR SO. ...VA SWWD INTO NRN GA... TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NRN GA INTO CNTRL VA. WEAK FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN DEEP MOIST PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 05:39:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 00:39:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405100539.i4A5dXq09455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100537 SWODY1 SPC AC 100533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW WAL 15 N PKB 40 NNE DAY 15 NNE SPI 25 SSE EMP 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 40 N LAR 55 S GCC 45 S OLF 35 WNW ISN 20 NNW P24 50 SSE PHP 20 N BBW 10 E OMA 20 SSE ALO 35 E PLN ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM 30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 30 SSE UNO 20 ESE VIH 20 WSW JEF 55 ENE CNU 20 WNW END 30 NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 20 NE HDO 55 SE AUS 35 NNW HOU 25 NE GLS ...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 30 WSW LAR 30 SSE LND 45 SE SLC 50 ENE TPH 65 W RNO 40 N MFR 15 NE RDM 35 W BKE 35 ENE MSO 55 N GGW ...CONT... 60 N GFK 50 W AXN MKT 20 ENE EAU 25 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA EJECTS NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN PARTICULAR...STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL ROUND AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS TROUGH BASE AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN TROUGH WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SERN ONTARIO THROUGH SRN WI INTO CNTRL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ERN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM LAKE ERIE SEWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION WILL RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREADING NWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. TO THE W...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW WRN PORTION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT TO LIFT NWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN NEB/ERN WY BY EARLY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ANY ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HERE...LOW-LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AT THIS TIME ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA PRIOR TO SPREADING EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE W ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN PORTIONS OF NRN IND/IL. HERE TOO...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE RAPID NWWD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 50-55F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED INTO WRN NEB/SERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. HEATING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT EWD MOTION INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND IN ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER MAY AUGMENT WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL. ...KS EWD/NEWD INTO MO/IA... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 12:50:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 07:50:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405101254.i4ACsaq11503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101248 SWODY1 SPC AC 101245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE GRI 15 WNW SLN 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 25 N LAR 50 S GCC 30 S 4BQ 20 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 W VTN 25 N BBW 15 ESE GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MSS 20 NNW BAF 35 E ISP ...CONT... 35 S WAL 40 S FDY 10 NNW CMI 10 NW BMI CGX 10 NNW GRR 55 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM 30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 25 NW UNO 10 NE UMN 15 WSW TUL 55 NNE CSM 35 NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 55 WNW AUS 60 ESE ACT 40 E LFK 25 ENE GLS ...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 45 NNW LAR 20 S WRL PIH 25 SSE BAM 40 S SVE 30 E MFR 50 ESE RDM 40 S PDT 50 NNE 3DU 55 N GGW ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 50 W AXN 25 S FRM 25 ESE LSE 70 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LK MI EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WHILE A TROUGH MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN CONUS GENERALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH N OF THE BORDER MOVES FROM WRN ONTARIO TO NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SWRN EXTENSION BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...LK MI AND VICINITY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC... LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT EXISTS TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION SOUTHEAST OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF PA / NY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK UPPER FEATURE -- AND SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SPREAD ACROSS PA / NY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONGER WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT MORE NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL-SCALE BOWS ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ERN WY / ERN CO SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WEAK CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN KS / NWRN MO ATTM...AND THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY AFTERNOON...500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS. WITH MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...MODERATE / VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN KS / WRN NEB DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...BUT THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. ..GOSS.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 20:06:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 15:06:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405102006.i4AK6Mq32604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102002 SWODY1 SPC AC 101959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ORF 30 ENE CRW LUK 25 WNW SDF 10 WSW EVV 20 NNE MDH BLV 30 N ALN 15 NNW SPI 30 S MMO MKG OSC ...CONT... 10 NNE ART 45 N MSV EWR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CDS 30 E CVS 10 ENE TCC 40 SW CAO 10 NNE TAD LAR 45 N CPR 40 NNW GCC 25 WSW REJ 45 NNE RAP 15 NNE VTN 40 WSW RSL 10 SSW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 50 NNW SVC 30 N DRO 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC 15 ESE PIH 40 SSW NFL 20 ENE SAC 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 N GFK ABR MHE OFK LNK 30 NW FNB 25 W LWD 30 WNW OTM 45 NNW DBQ GRB ANJ ...CONT... 15 ESE ORF 55 ESE LYH 30 WSW GSO 35 ESE AND VLD 40 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PNC 30 NNE CSM 20 SSW LTS 15 WNW ABI 45 SSE BWD 15 SSE TPL 35 NNW TYR 55 ESE SHV 10 SSE MLU 20 W GLH 50 WSW JBR 50 W ARG 15 NNE FYV 40 S PNC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY... A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE YIELDING MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH CENTRAL IL AND DETROIT 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED... CONVERGENCE/LIFT IS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE 5-6 KM WINDS SWITCHED TO NWLY AT THE PROFILER SITE IN NWRN MO AT 17Z...INDICATIVE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE...IT SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM ERN MO/IL/IN EWD INTO OH/LOWER MI. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW AT 20-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ...NERN UNITED STATES... AN MCV HAS MOVED FROM NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SUBSIDENCE COVERED MUCH OF NY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OH/PA/WRN NY ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE UNTIL 23Z. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF LAKE BOUNDARIES AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...INDUCING STRENGTHING E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID/UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS NWWD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF WY/NERN CO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THESE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 30 KT...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE VEERING WIND PROFILES/AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...FORECAST 1 KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. A FEW HOURS AFTER THE INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ..STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. REFERENCE MD 634. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER FROM WRN KS/SRN CO SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THAN ACROSS NEB/WY...BUT THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR... PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LOW/50 DEGREE OR LOWER/...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ERN TEX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS. ...TN VALLEY... DESPITE VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL THREAT. ..IMY.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 00:35:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 19:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405110035.i4B0ZXq14048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110032 SWODY1 SPC AC 110029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ACY 35 NW SBY 25 WNW NHK 25 NW RIC 25 ESE LYH 15 S SSU 35 WSW MGW 15 W DAY 25 NE IND 10 NNW CMI 15 E BMI 25 S MMO 15 ENE MMO 30 NE CGX 20 WSW GRR 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS 20 W EEN 40 ESE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 35 S Y22 50 NW VTN 30 NE MCK 25 S HLC 40 SSW GAG 55 S CDS 35 NE BGS 25 NNE MAF 40 ESE HOB 35 ENE RTN 15 NE COS LAR 25 NE SHR 80 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK ABR MHE OFK LNK 30 NW FNB 25 W LWD 30 WNW OTM 45 NNW DBQ GRB ANJ ...CONT... 30 NE ECG 55 NNW RWI 30 WSW GSO 35 ESE AND VLD 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 SE DUG 70 NE SAD 25 E CEZ 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC 15 ESE PIH 40 SSW NFL 50 W RNO 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TUL 20 S END 20 WSW FSI 40 NW MWL 20 S MWL 40 N ACT 10 NNW TYR 55 ESE SHV MLU 40 WSW GLH 45 NE LIT 50 W ARG 15 NNE FYV 10 WNW TUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...HIGH PLAINS REGION... INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG SELY SURFACE WINDS AND A RAPID NWWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WY/CO AND WRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FROM E-CNTRL WY SWD INTO NERN CO...TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS E-CNTRL CO /PER 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN TROUGH IS CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM E-CNTRL WY SWD INTO ERN CO. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE MESOCYCLONES. FARTHER S INTO SWRN KS AND WRN TX...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL THROUGH THE 80S AND ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS FROM ERN MT INTO WRN/CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60KTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTRL MT. STRONG MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 750MB. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION... FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO NRN MO HAS FOCUSED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY UNIFORM...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS NOTED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH A DECREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AT 40-50KTS. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS PLACE ACROSS WRN CT INTO CNTRL MA. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 05:51:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 00:51:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405110551.i4B5pTq05074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110549 SWODY1 SPC AC 110546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 20 NNE MKT 40 SSW SPW 15 ESE OLU 55 N RSL 25 NE CDS 65 SSW CDS 40 SSE LBB 35 W LBB 45 NW GLD 30 S AIA 25 NNW RAP 15 S DIK 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 10 SSE HOB CAO 20 S AKO 15 NNW DEN GUC 20 N CEZ 30 SE CDC 30 NW TPH 40 W U31 OWY 20 NNE MQM 55 N GGW ...CONT... 20 SW WAL 25 W RIC 45 WNW GSO 35 ESE AND 25 W JAX 10 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ART 10 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SZL 30 W JLN 15 NW FSM 55 SW ARG 40 NNE DYR 10 WSW PAH 25 E BLV 30 NW SZL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE TX PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD INTO THE NERN STATES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED 90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK /CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV/ WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH RESULTANT 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE DAKOTAS/NEB. AT THE SURFACE...INTENSE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NERN WY WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB AT THIS TIME. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM DEEPENING NEB LOW SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX. IN THE E...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO WRN TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB ALONG AXIS OF 50-60KT LLJ. A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO SHIFTING NEWD INTO MN. DEGREE OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS/CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND THIS COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NEB NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP MIXING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND INITIATE TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SWWD INTO WRN NEB. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO 45-55KTS ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR VECTOR TO BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NERN NEB INTO WRN MN. FARTHER S ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX...HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH. THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS... DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG SAGGING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL OCCURRENCES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A GRADUAL DEMISE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 16:25:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 11:25:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405111625.i4BGPPq20186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111622 SWODY1 SPC AC 111619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40 E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW CMX 30 SSW MCW 30 SE LNK 45 N P28 60 NW ABI 35 NNW BGS 45 WSW LBB 40 ESE LAA 35 SE SNY 30 W CDR 40 WSW REJ 45 SSW DIK 60 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ALI 20 SE COT 15 WNW SAT 60 WSW TPL 35 WNW ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 WNW LFK 15 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30 SW AKO 45 E FCL 35 NNW 4FC 35 NE GJT 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE SRQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SD SWD THRU NEB INTO NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER OF HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EWD ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT 12Z. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD ATTM WITH SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU SERN WY INTO SERN UT. PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE LOW ALONG ND/SD BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN ESEWD THRU SRN LOWER MI. 50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE NWD THRU PLAINS WITH LOW/MID 60 DEWPOINTS COMMON IN WARM SECTOR NWD TO WARM FRONT. WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS S TX WHERE THERE IS A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE SLY FLOW WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TX COASTAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NERN CORNER CO. RESULT WILL BE A SHARP N/S DRY LINE FROM LOW IN WRN SD SWD TO ALONG CO/KS BORDER WITH AIRMASS E OF DRY LINE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR E OF DRY LINE. AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ROTATE INTO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT CAP WILL WEAKEN TO ALLOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DRY LINE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INTO HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BEING DOMINANT INITIALLY. HOWEVER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES BY THIS EVENING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG TORNADO THIS EVENING IN THE MDT RISK AREA AS FAVORABLE SHEAR DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SWD VICINITY DRY LINE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER BUT AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE. A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EWD AFTER DARK VICINITY WARM FRONT AS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES NEWD INTO PLAINS. ...TX... REF WW 183 AND MCD 648 THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY FLOW IN TX IS WEAKLY CAPPED. WITH ONGOING STORMS AND 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWS/SHORT LINES SUCH AS THE CURRENT BOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST N OF CRP. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO DELMARVA NJ... REF MCD 649 AGAIN TODAY A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS THIS REGION TO S OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WRN MA WWD ALONG NY/PA BORDER TO NEAR CHI. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE PULSE SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT MLCAPE...RANGING UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG... ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND DOWNBURST THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 20:16:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 15:16:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405112016.i4BKGDq04396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112009 SWODY1 SPC AC 112006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40 E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CMX RST BIE 20 WNW GAG 55 NNW DRT 30 NE P07 35 SSW FST 10 SE TCC 45 NNW GLD 15 WNW AIA 55 NNE RAP Y22 75 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW PSX 45 E COT PSX 30 NNE PSX 10 NW ACT DAL SHV 15 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 55 WSW TCC 25 E AKO 40 W SNY 30 NNW 4FC 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE SRQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ND...PORTIONS NEB AND NW KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MN/ERN ND SSWWD TO W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S AND E TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN MT. AS THIS CYCLONE DRIFTS ENEWD ACROSS MT TONIGHT...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET BETWEEN NWRN GREAT BASIN...4-CORNERS AREA AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S TX -- AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY. AT SFC...EXTREMELY INTENSE FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN SD CYCLONE ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN ND AND W-CENTRAL MN. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN MN...BUT BASED ON CURRENT ISALLOBARIC TRENDS...WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER ND/SD BORDER REGION UNTIL SFC LOW MOVES BY DURING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN WY...WRN NEB AND NERN CO. DRYLINE -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM SFC LOW SD TO INVOF KS/CO BORDER AND TX/NM BORDER...SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB. DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER S. ...GREAT PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST... REF SPC WWS 184 AND 185...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS... FOR DETAILS REGARDING NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM SD INTO KS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE FROM MN SWWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NEAR SFC LOW...AND WITH DRYLINE SWD AT LEAST INTO NWRN KS. GREATEST SIGNIFICANT/ DAMAGING HAIL THREAT IS WITH SUPERCELLS IN CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA. THIS IS WHERE ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-UPPER FLOW IS JUXTAPOSED WITH NWRN PORTION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING/LIFT. MODIFIED 18Z RAOBS AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASES IN BOTH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE. HIGH LCL AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPRESS TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH EARLY CONVECTION -- HOWEVER INCREASING MOISTURE/SHEAR AND DECREASING LCL INDICATE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME LARGER...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE SWD ACROSS W TX...THOUGH DECREASING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT AND INCREASING DIURNAL DEPENDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION OF SEVERE. ...SE TX... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES WITH ORGANIZED MCS OVER TX COASTAL PLAINS N-NE OF CRP...THOUGH IT SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO AIR MASS WORKED OVER BY NWD MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER E-CENTRAL TX. REF SPC WW 183 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS EXPANDING OUTFLOW COVERAGE AND LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING COMBINE TO REDUCE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 00:42:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 19:42:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405120043.i4C0hBq09292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120040 SWODY1 SPC AC 120037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW IWD 10 E FRM 50 S HSI 40 W P28 25 S SJT 30 NE P07 25 NE FST 25 W AMA 40 NNW GLD 50 NW MHN 25 W PIR 30 N JMS RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 55 WSW TCC 25 E AKO 40 W SNY 30 NNW 4FC 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM ...CONT... 25 NE ECG 55 WSW ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO WRN TX... ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO WRN TX... REFERENCE RECENT MCD/S 660 AND 661 FOR LATEST MESOSCALE/NEAR TERM THREAT ACROSS SD/NEB AND TX. QUASI-LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL SD SWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. STRONG HEATING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB NEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN. FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS E OF COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS OBSERVED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. EXPECT ONGOING LINE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. LINE MAY TEND TO ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECT NEWD OUT OF CO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS OVER W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL MN ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS COLOCATED WITH STRONGER AND MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX. ALTHOUGH 00Z MAF/DDC SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MODESTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS SRN LA WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF WEAK COLD FRONT /EXTENDING FROM EWR WWD TO DUJ TO S OF CLE AS OF 00Z/ WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 05:17:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 00:17:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405120517.i4C5HVq21717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120514 SWODY1 SPC AC 120511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ 15 ESE JVL 45 NE COU 15 NNW SGF 50 NW FYV 30 NE OKC 25 NE FSI 35 NW LTS 35 E LBL 35 SW GCK 20 SSW LAA 40 E COS 30 SE CYS 20 WSW SNY 35 S MCK 10 ENE CNK OMA 30 WNW RWF 20 NNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE DRT 35 N HDO 10 SE BWD 30 N ABI 40 S CDS 65 ENE AMA 20 S LBL 50 SSE LHX 20 W TAD 10 N DRO 15 SSW CNY 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 60 W OWY 20 SSE BNO 10 NNE PDT 35 W PUW 40 SSW 3DU 20 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 60 ENE ANW 10 WSW HON JMS 70 N GFK ...CONT... 25 E MSS 30 SE SLK 25 NNE PSF ISP ...CONT... WAL 30 W RIC 20 SSE LYH 15 WNW GSO 40 SE CLT 15 SSE CHS ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 45 SE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W/HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE FIRST OF WHICH /CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL WY/WRN NEB/ WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN LATER TODAY AND INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NV/WRN UT. THIS FEATURE WILL ROUND THE TROUGH BASE AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO PROGRESSING NEWD INTO ERN NEB/IA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO LEAD VORTICITY MAX WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL MN TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD. BY EARLY EVENING...FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND FROM WRN WI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF IA AND KS TO DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW OVER FAR SWRN KS/OK PNHDL REGION. PORTION OF COLD FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN MORE QUASI-STATIONARY OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS/WAA ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY. FINALLY...DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MIXES EWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW SWD THROUGH ERN TX PNHDL OR WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... PRE-FRONTAL TSTM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM N-CNTRL MN/MN ARROWHEAD SWD INTO CNTRL MN AND NERN NEB. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...MOIST FEED OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI SWD INTO WRN IL AND CNTRL/ERN IA WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG. REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND CNTRL/ERN IA. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME ALIGNED IN FRONTAL-PARALLEL BANDS OR CLUSTERS AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS WI INTO THE WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN TO THE W IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR...MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING INVOF SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON S OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NERN KS...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT SWWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP OVER CNTRL INTO SWRN KS. WHILE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...MODESTLY STRONG 500MB WINDS OF 35-45KTS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF INSTABILITY AXIS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY TEND TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK OWING TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AXIS OF DEVELOPING LLJ. UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF TSTMS INTO CLUSTERS/MCS IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AHEAD OF EJECTING NV/UT VORTICITY MAX. WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO W-CNTRL/NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. FINALLY...A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO OVERCOME CAP. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT... POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL/ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 13:07:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 08:07:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405121307.i4CD7Fq16494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121305 SWODY1 SPC AC 121301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 30 NNE OKC 15 NE FSI 20 WNW LTS 20 WSW GAG 10 WNW LBL 15 SSW LAA 30 E COS 35 ENE DEN 40 NW AKO 30 SSW IML 20 S HSI 35 ENE OMA 25 NW MCW 20 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DRT 25 N SJT 40 S CDS 55 NNW CDS 40 SSE EHA 50 SSE LHX 40 NW TAD 10 N DRO 15 SSW CNY 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 60 W OWY 20 SSE BNO 10 NNE PDT 35 W PUW 40 SSW 3DU 20 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB YKN 15 N BKX 30 E FAR RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 20 NE LEB PSM ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 45 SE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS / ERN CO / OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER FEATURES MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN BELT OF STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF MAIN TROUGH. A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- WELL AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD TO THE TX / LA BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER MN SWWD INTO OK / NRN TX PANHANDLES AND THEN WWD INTO SRN CO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SEWD SURGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS SLOWS THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN CO. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NWD INTO WRN KS / ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SWD PUSH ACROSS THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS / OK / ERN CO... MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ATTM...WHILE CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND HEATING TO COMMENCE...WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE INVOF COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ACROSS WRN KS OR WWD INTO CO IN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS OK / TX. STRONGEST INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST ACROSS KS...WHERE 40 TO 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. FURTHER SWD ALONG DRYLINE...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER -- BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR MULTICELLS / WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ONE OR MORE MCSS LIKELY EVOLVE OVER KS / OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ALONG COLD FRONT FROM MN SSWWD INTO NERN KS. LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY / SHEAR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. STORM CLUSTER CONTINUES ACROSS AR / LA / WRN MS WITHIN MESOSCALE CIRCULATION NOW OVER FAR SERN AR ATTM. AS THIS FEATURE AND SECOND / WEAKER CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER W CENTRAL MO ATTM MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE / 20 TO 30 KT / WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY ALLOW SOME STORM ORGANIZATION / PERSISTENCE. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAIR DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW ANY SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH. ..GOSS / TAYLOR.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 16:27:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 11:27:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405121628.i4CGS0q32426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121625 SWODY1 SPC AC 121622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 30 NNE OKC 15 NE FSI 20 WNW LTS GAG 10 WNW LBL 15 SSW LAA 30 E COS 35 ENE DEN 30 NW AKO 30 N GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 45 SSE LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 NNE WEY 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT S/WV IMPULSE HAS ROTATED NEWD INTO PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MN WILL ALSO MORE NEWD AND WEAKEN AS STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD REACHING WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO VICINITY MKC BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES THROUGH BOTTOM OF MAJOR TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS LEE OF SRN CO/NRN NM ROCKIES . COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED SWD OVERNIGHT INTO NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM SHOULD STALL WITH SURFACE DEEPENING. DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD FROM FRONT THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE TO BIG BEND. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... SLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE TO THE POINT WHERE THERE IS POTENTIALLY A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRY LINE. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL DELAY INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO SERN CO. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AREA OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT KS AND DOWN THE DRY LINE VICINITY OK/TX BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND A VEERING HODOGRAPH IN THE SFC-1 KM LAYER..COUPLED WITH MLCAPES LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...SUPPORT A SUPERCELL MODE OF STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL HOWEVER AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR VICINITY DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING AND CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING E/SE ACROSS KS AND WRN/NRN OK. FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE AGAIN TODAY PULSE SEVERE EXPECTED TO BE THE MODE SWD TO TX BIG BEND. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY... AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CANADA AND WEAKEN AND THE MEAN WIND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF GENERALLY 30KT...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR. WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF STATES... VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY SHEARED AIRMASS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN PULSE THUNDERSTORM MODE. COVERAGE OF SEVERE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK KINEMATICS.. ..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 20:07:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:07:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122007.i4CK7qq05634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122002 SWODY1 SPC AC 121959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 22:34:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 17:34:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122234.i4CMYkq07222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122232 SWODY1 SPC AC 122229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 22:54:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 17:54:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122254.i4CMscq19399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122249 SWODY1 SPC AC 122242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 3 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE...RETRANSMIT GRAPHICS REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 23:09:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 18:09:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122309.i4CN9Lq28014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122307 SWODY1 SPC AC 122304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 4 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122229Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE JEF TUL 25 SE OKC BWD 35 NW SJT 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO RSL 20 W MHK 10 NNE ALO 40 NW AUW 65 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF LBF EAR BIE 40 N DSM 45 SSE DLH 40 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE...RETRANSMIT GRAPHICS REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 01:15:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 20:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405130115.i4D1F3q00524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130111 SWODY1 SPC AC 130108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW STJ 25 ENE MKC JLN TUL 25 SE OKC BWD 35 NW SJT 40 WSW GAG LBL 40 S LAA LHX 35 SSE AKO 35 SSW MCK 15 NNW RSL 15 NNE MHK 10 WSW STJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX JBR UNO MLC 60 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 85 WNW OWY BKE S80 55 WNW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF LBF EAR LNK FOD EAU 15 SSW CMX ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES MEAN TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS...WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SWRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGIONS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...EXTENDING POTENTIAL FOR GEN TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS LS/UPPER MI/WI...SEWD ACROSS IA/NWRN MO...AND SWD OVER NERN AND SWRN KS. FRONT ARCS WNWWD ACROSS SERN CO. EXPECT FRONT NEAR SSM-RFD-MKC-P28-TCC LINE BY 13/12Z...PERHAPS EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER REGION BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... CONFIRMED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS UNDERWAY OVER PORTIONS SW KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO OCCURRENCE NEXT FEW HOURS. REF SPC WW 193 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY POTENTIAL GENESIS REGION FOR MCS THAT WOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN KS AND KS/OK BORDER REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AFTER APPROXIMATELY 6Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED WITHIN WESTERN PORTION OF 45-55 KT LLJ. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE EVIDENT FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS WRN OK/NW TX...E OF DRYLINE THAT SHOULD RETREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. REF WW 194 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ACTIVITY OVER TX IS MORE HIGH-BASED...MORE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE ASCENT...THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER N...AND SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...DAMAGING HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FROM TSTMS NOW OVER ERN CO...ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT. REF SPC WW 195 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. WITH BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER S-R INFLOW FARTHER SE ACROSS SRN KS...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 4Z. ...WI/IL... TSTMS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AMIDST WEAKLY SHEARED/UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE BUT POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ONLY MARGINAL PROBABILITIES. ...SERN LA... CLUSTER OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS IN WEAK SHEAR REGIME WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN LA AND THEN OVER COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 676 FOR SHORT TERM FCST DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 05:56:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 00:56:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405130556.i4D5uEq11352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130554 SWODY1 SPC AC 130551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CDS CSM END MKC 45 SSE P35 45 E COU UNO JCT 60 W JCT 50 NNE P07 BGS 25 SE CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 45 SSE LBB PVW 30 ESE CVS 30 WSW CVS 50 NE 4CR 40 SSW ALS GJT EVW MLD 45 SW MQM 30 SE DLN 45 N COD GCC 35 NE DGW 45 E CYS 35 ESE AKO 30 NNE GLD 35 S EAR 35 ESE GRI RWF 40 ESE BRD 55 SE ELO ...CONT... 10 ESE SSI 15 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL MO TO W-CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...WRN CONUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD OVER GREAT PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NEB/KS/OK/WRN TX BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SRN KS...TO SERN CO -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MO/OK AND NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH PERIOD. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...TO INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT IN CDS-SPS-FSI REGION...SSWWD PAST SJT...THEN RETREAT WWD AFTER 00Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION AROUND TIME OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING AFTERNOON...BECAUSE OF TENDENCIES OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS TO UNDER-FCST LEE-SIDE COLD AIR SURGES THROUGH MID SPRING. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ALONG AND JUST E OF DRYLINE. TSTMS MAY INITIATE EARLIEST NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER SW OK/NW TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED...IN WHICH CASE SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL AND OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED IN THAT REGION. ALTERNATIVELY TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NERN OK AND DISCRETELY PROPAGATE SWWD TOWARD DRYLINE...WITH MORE ELONGATED THREAT. IN EITHER EVENT...DESTRUCTIVELY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...MLCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG. THOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK -- I.E. 25-35 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER -- STORM-SCALE PROCESSES MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY. TORNADO THREAT IS NONZERO BUT IS ALSO SECOND-ORDER COMPARED TO WIND AND HAIL. POTENTIAL INVOF MOST OF DRYLINE SHOULD BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIABATIC HEATING AND THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO RELATIVELY NARROW TIME WINDOW -- 21Z-03Z. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL...GIVEN INTENSE INSOLATION AND MIX OF 50S/60S SFC DEW POINT AIR...BUT ANY STORMS SURVIVING EWD SIGNIFICANTLY INTO HIGHER THETAE MOIST SECTOR WILL HAVE 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. TSTMS INVOF RED RIVER MAY EVOLVE INTO HAIL AND WIND PRODUCING MCS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OR ESEWD DURING EVENING. ...WRN GULF COAST... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY CAPPED SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE FCST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND CONNECTIVE OUTFLOWS RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT DURATION AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH INDIVIDUAL TSTMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS MAY SUPPLEMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF OUTFLOW AND/OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD ROUGHLY 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND BRN SHEAR NEAR 50 J/KG. WIND AND TORNADO THREATS APPEAR TOO CONDITIONAL ON MESOBETA TO STORM SCALE PROCESSES FOR CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK...BUT THERE ARE MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR EACH. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 13:01:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 08:01:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405131301.i4DD1Oq11785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131258 SWODY1 SPC AC 131255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BVE 30 E HEZ 60 N HOT 10 WNW UNO 25 S STL DEC 30 SE MLI 30 NW BRL 15 WNW COU 25 SE PNC 25 ENE LTS 35 SSW CDS 40 ENE BGS 55 NNE P07 55 W JCT 15 NNW SAT 30 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 25 WNW BGS 45 SSW LBB 50 NNE HOB 20 W ROW 15 N 4CR 60 SW ALS 35 E CNY 30 S SLC 65 NNE BOI 25 SSE GEG 45 NE 63S 40 ENE CTB 20 WNW GCC 35 NE DGW 45 E CYS 40 WSW IML 50 W EAR 40 ENE BUB 20 SSW FSD 40 SW STC 40 SW DLH 25 NNW ELO ...CONT... 10 ESE SSI 15 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W CENTRAL IL SWD / SWWD INTO OK / TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE UPPER HIGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ATTM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO EJECT EWD / NEWD IN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF MAIN TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM UPPER MI / WI SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS / LOWER MO VALLEYS INTO WRN OK / NWRN TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD WITH TIME...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY REGION OF CENTRAL / S TX. THIS FRONT AND A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD SET UP ACROSS W CENTRAL TX SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PERSIST / MOVE SLOWLY EWD IN WARM ADVECTION REGION ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...SWRN MO SWWD INTO W CENTRAL TX... COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE / TX SOUTH PLAINS ATTM...WHILE OUTFLOW-ENHANCED PORTION OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY SWD. AS STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL OK MOVE EWD...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN OK INTO ADJACENT NWRN TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. WITH MORNING FTW / OUN RAOBS SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK SWWD TO BE INHIBITED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT A HEATING-INDUCED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN TX...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LOW / COLD FRONT / DRYLINE. DESPITE ONLY 20 TO 30 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST OVER THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE / VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF WRN N TX / SWRN OK INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE / COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH TIME ACROSS OK / NRN AND CENTRAL TX. DESPITE A POTENTIALLY SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THREAT...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AREA AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING FRONT. ...PORTIONS OF IL / MO... ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK OVER THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT SHEAR / INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS W CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL MO WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS MAXIMUM. ...ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... HAVE ADDED A LARGE AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN / SERN TX EWD ACROSS LA...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN / SERN TX THIS MORNING...APPARENTLY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER LOWER MS VALLEY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. WITH MODEL FORECASTS AND LATEST VAD / VWP DATA INDICATING MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WHICH VEERS WITH HEIGHT... A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / LOW LCLS AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES TX...WITH A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING AS FAR EWD AS SERN MS. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 16:20:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 11:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405131620.i4DGK5q22104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131616 SWODY1 SPC AC 131613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PSX 15 NNE SAT 55 NNE DRT 60 NE P07 35 NNE BGS 30 S CDS 35 E CSM 25 E PNC 15 NNE COU 25 NNW BRL 30 NNW PIA 15 ESE DEC 20 SW BLV UNO 60 NW LIT 35 NNW MCB 15 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 50 S LBB 55 WSW LBB 45 NNW HOB 10 W ROW 4CR 35 N 4SL 20 WSW DRO 40 WSW MTJ 25 W GJT 30 SE VEL 40 NE VEL 20 ENE RKS 30 ENE RWL 40 N LAR 45 E CYS 35 ENE AKO 15 SSE MCK OLU 35 ESE SUX MKT DLH 80 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SSI 25 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS NEWD TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES WILL BE LIFTING NEWD INTO PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO SWRN OK/SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN PLAINS. LARGE SEVERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SCENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE 40-50 KT LLJ AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH FROM NERN MEXICO. ...SRN PLAINS... ACROSS SRN PLAINS THE MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND E OF W TX DRY LINE. OK AREA IS WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...REF WW 198. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY OF 20 KT...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THUS LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN DRY LINE AND FRONTAL INTERSECTION WILL BECOME ACTIVE WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...MORE LIKELY IN NWRN TX. THE LARGE MCS OVER SCENTRAL TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/SE INTO THE RATHER STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL SLY JET. SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 30KT AND SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON. BOWING SEGMENTS ADDITIONALLY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE. REF WW 197. ...LOWER MO VALLEY... FURTHER N ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO MID MS VALLEY...MUCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS PORTION OF WARM SECTOR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT WHICH SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELL STORMS. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT DURING PEAK HEATING. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW MAINLY W OF COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER N AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS GREAT LAKES...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF FRONT WILL HOWEVER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT. ..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 14 12:57:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 May 2004 07:57:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405141257.i4ECvfn29765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141255 SWODY1 SPC AC 141251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JHW 20 SSE HLG 25 SSW PKB 30 N 5I3 10 SE JKL 25 ENE SDF IND SBN 20 NNW GRR 20 SW OSC 90 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 35 NNW SJT 25 NNE TYR 35 NNE HOT 45 SSW STL SPI MMO MKE 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 55 N BML 25 S CON 15 SE HYA ...CONT... 30 E ECG 25 WSW RWI 25 E AGS 40 S CSG 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TWF 35 NNW SUN 20 N DLN 25 ESE 3HT 50 N REJ 45 NW PIR 40 SSW 9V9 35 S IML PUB GUC PUC 45 SSW TWF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA... ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES... VORT MAX OVER SW IL THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY WHILE BROADER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN U.S. MIGRATES SLOWLY EWD. IN THE PROCESS...NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SE MO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN MI SWWD THROUGH WRN OR CNTRL KY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND POOR LAPSE RATES PER MORNING RAOB DATA. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM ERN KY...ERN IND...ERN MI THROUGH OH SUGGESTING THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME HEATING TODAY...BUT GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AOB 5.8 C/KM MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET FROM 40 TO 50 KT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF IND...OH AND MI. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY SERVE AS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINES AND SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHER FROM PARTS OF NRN IND/OH INTO ERN MI WHERE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE THROUGH S TX... STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF NRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EWD INTO PARTS OF S AND SW TX WHERE DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR S OF STALLED BOUNDARY. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 05/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 06:07:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 01:07:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405150607.i4F67In29526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150605 SWODY1 SPC AC 150601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... GLS POE GLH DYR OWB CMH CAK ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB HVR GGW OLF ISN 55 N MOT ...CONT... 75 NW CMX DLH FSD EAR HLC AMA INK 75 S MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 45 SSW SAD 45 NW SAD GNT 4SL ALS COS 50 ENE DGW GCC SHR COD JAC OGD 55 W OGD TWF 60 SW BOI 80 E 4LW 50 N SVE 35 NE RBL 40 W MHS MFR 55 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NRN HALF OF CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MEANWHILE...ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER AR/LA SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD TOWARD ERN TN AND AL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS...MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...AND STALLING FARTHER SW ACROSS TN VALLEY AND MS DELTA REGIONS. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED GEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS WHERE SERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES OVER FRONTAL ZONE...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE ORE COAST...IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND THEN ENEWD ACROSS WY BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM PERTURBATION EVIDENT OVER NRN ALTA/SASK BORDER IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ND/SASK BORDER...TURNING EWD OVER NRN ND/SWRN MANITOBA BY 16/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP DURING DAY OVER SRN SASK/NRN MT AND MOVE SEWD OVER ND. ...MID ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM AS DIABATIC HEATING INTENSIFIES DURING DAY...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHLANDS OF ERN PA/UPSTATE NY ...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY AND DELMARVA REGIONS BEFORE WEAKENING. TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND TO VA PIEDMONT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE GENERALLY INCREASES. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS OVER SRN PORTION OF THIS REGION WHERE 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES POSSIBLE AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- AFTERNOON... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AOA 8.5 DEG C/KM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO...SERN WY AND PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE...AS SFC HEATING COMBINES WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF APCHG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF FOOTHILLS...PALMER/CYS RIDGES AND PERHAPS RATON MESA REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE TSTMS TO PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. WEAK/RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE EMANATING FROM POST-FRONTAL CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO UNDER ABOUT 400 J/KG AND PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC PROCESSES AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER ABOUT 01Z. ...ND -- AFTERNOON... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AFTER ABOUT 21Z WHEN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR IS MOST WEAKLY CAPPED BECAUSE OF SEVERAL HOURS OF OPTIMAL DIABATIC HEATING. MUCH LIKE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE...DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND FRONTAL LIFT. GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST CELLS...BUT TIME WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SHORT AND COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL USE ONLY MARGINAL WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS -- NOCTURNAL... SCATTED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 6Z AS 45-55 KT LLJ STRENGTHENS ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER REGION. A FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HAIL...AMIDST GROWING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION...BEFORE END OF PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. PRIND PARCELS WILL REACH LFC WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES IN 300-800 J/KG RANGE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN CAPE-BEARING LAYER OF ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO ROTATE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 12:56:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 07:56:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151255.i4FCtvo17143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151253 SWODY1 SPC AC 151250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 40 S JMS 35 NNW MBG 15 SSE DIK P24 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX CKV 40 NW LEX 25 WSW CMH 10 NNW CAK ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 55 SW GGW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 25 ENE BIE 20 N HUT AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 45 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND... ...ND... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE ESEWD TODAY INTO SRN MANITOBA AND EXTREME NRN ND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ALOFT (-23C AT 5 KM) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL (MLCAPE BELOW 800 J/KG) OWING TO LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MOST OF THE DAY BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ND. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR MODES AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH ERN OH...CNTRL TN AND MS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH BREAKS FOR MANY AREAS TO RECEIVE SURFACE HEATING WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIANS. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S. LEAVING WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST FLOW OVER THE WARM SECTOR. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS TO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...SE NM AND SW TX... ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS SW TX INTO SE NM. ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...VEERING PROFILES FROM THE SFC-6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SD... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES THEN CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SE WY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OWING TO MEAGER INSTABILITY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT...MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EXTREME NRN NEB THROUGH SD. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 16:27:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 11:27:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151627.i4FGRLo01202@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151625 SWODY1 SPC AC 151622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30 SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. APPEARS PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN PLAINS... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP TODAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 16:30:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 11:30:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151629.i4FGTto02324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151626 SWODY1 SPC AC 151623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30 SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. APPEARS PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN PLAINS... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP TODAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 16:30:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 11:30:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151630.i4FGUjo02780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151628 SWODY1 SPC AC 151625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30 SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. APPEARS PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN PLAINS... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP TODAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 20:12:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 15:12:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405152012.i4FKCOo22133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152009 SWODY1 SPC AC 152006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 25 S JMS 50 NNE MBG 45 SSW BIS 40 ESE DIK P24 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE BOS 15 SW ISP ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 10 WNW TTN 10 NW ABE 10 NNE AVP 45 ENE BGM 20 W MPV 40 N BML 30 W 3B1 20 ENE 3B1 30 NNE BGR 20 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LCH 35 ESE MLU 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG ...CONT... 15 SE SBY 20 SW GSO 40 NW AGS 30 S MCN VLD GNV MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 40 W CNK 30 S DDC 30 SSE AMA 25 SW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 SE FHU 60 E SOW 40 NNW 4SL 60 WSW COS 20 NW DEN 20 E LAR 30 WSW DGW 35 NE RIW 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 70 NE SVE 55 NNW SVE 20 NNE MHS 40 N MFR 30 SSE SLE 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND FAR NW MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...ND/NW MN... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MT. AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES SEWD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS EXPANDING ACROSS NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS ND. A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT BUT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS SD AND SRN ND SHOULD INHIBIT THE SRN DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NRN ND SHOW STRONG VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM -25 TO -27 C AND THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN PA AND SERN NY WHERE MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THIS AXIS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS SERN NY AND CNTRL PA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT WITH THE STORMS. IF SEVERE CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ...NERN NM... MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS W TX EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NM WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S F AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE FAIRLY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...ERN CO... CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OFF THE MTNS OF CNTRL CO AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE CO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS ERN CO...500 MB TEMPS ARE BETWEEN -16 AND -19C WHICH WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER DARK WHEN THE INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 01:06:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 20:06:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405160106.i4G165o30526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160103 SWODY1 SPC AC 160059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RRT 20 ESE GFK 25 W FAR 45 N ABR 60 NE MBG 30 SSW JMS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX BRD AXN FSD OLU EAR MCK GCK LBL DHT CVS FST 110 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 SE DUG SAD ABQ SAF 50 WSW COS EGE LAR RAP Y22 25 NNW BIS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF GSO SPA ATL 35 S CEW ...CONT... 45 SSE LCH UOX BNA 5I3 BKW EKN 20 ENE EFK HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE 63S MSO DLN MQM IDA PIH 45 S TWF OWY 4LW LMT 20 S PDX 55 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CTY VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/EXTREME NWRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD BELT OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW CHARACTERIZES SYNOPTIC UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS EXCEPT SERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN/SWRN MANITOBA TO CENTRAL ND -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD NWRN ONT AND NRN MN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT -- PRESENTLY OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF UT/WY BY 16/12Z. AT SFC..COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...DE VALLEY AND WRN VA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD OVER TN/AL/MS. FRONT ARCS NWWD ACROSS OK THEN NWD OVER CENTRAL KS/NEB/DAKOTAS AS WARM FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS ND AND EXTREME SERN MT -- WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MN AND WRN/NRN SD BY END OF PERIOD. ...NERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG SEVERE LIMITS -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF TREE/WIRE DAMAGE -- ARE POSSIBLE. DIABATIC COOLING HAS BEGUN...BUT PRE-STORM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 3Z WITH TEMPS 70S TO LOW 80S F AND DEW POINTS LARGELY LOW-MID 60S F. ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE EVIDENT IN IAD RAOB...WITH ABOUT 500-800 J/KG DCAPE...IN VERY WEAKLY SHEARED KINEMATIC PROFILE. AFTER ABOUT 03Z CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL BECOME NARROWER SPATIALLY AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH CONVECTION APCHG COAST. ...DAKOTAS/WRN MN THROUGH ABOUT 6Z... COLD FRONTAL TSTM BAND OVER ERN ND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN MN BEFORE WEAKENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FARTHER S OVER SERN ND HAVE DISSIPATED...AS SHOULD ACTIVITY FARTHER S ALONG WARM FRONT OVER SD. 00Z ABR RAOB IS STRONGLY CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF SFC WARM FRONT INTO WHICH REMAINING ISOLATED CELLS ARE MOVING. EXPECT WEAKENING OF ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF COLD FRONT...WHILE COLD FRONTAL LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN MN. ...NWRN NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 06Z OVER THIS REGION...AS INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN CONCORDANCE WITH LEE-SIDE/LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IN CO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ATOP INCREASING HUMIDITY WITHIN 700-850 MB LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN CAPE-BEARING LAYER OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL. ...SRN ROCKIES TO FAR W TX... EXPECT COVERAGE OF TSTMS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER REGION DURING REMAINDER EVENING. INCREASING STABILITY EXPECTED BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS FROM EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 05:53:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 00:53:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405160553.i4G5rio00793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160552 SWODY1 SPC AC 160548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PHP AXN IWD VOK 50 NE ALO HSI 45 SSW EAR DDC 55 E AMA PVW CVS TCC 40 NW IML 30 E AIA CDR 20 S RAP PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 35 SSW ESC MSN END 70 NW ABI 40 WNW SJT 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 SSE DMN 65 NW TCS 30 SSE ALS COS 4FC 35 NE GJT 30 SSW SLC 70 E BNO 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 45 WSW HVR 75 NE BIL BIS FAR 30 NNW HIB 35 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG FAY 35 WSW FLO 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 60 N BRO 25 N NIR LFK HOT 40 NW EVV UNI LBE 25 SSW EEN BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEB/SD BORDER REGION ENEWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FCST TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...WITH BROAD ZONE OF WLY TO WSWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS. PRINCIPAL FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN ORE. THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO MOVE EWD...REACHING INVOF SERN MT/NWRN SD/NERN WY BY 17/00Z...AND WRN MN/ERN SD WITHIN 12 HOURS THEREAFTER. SOMEWHAT FASTER SPECTRAL PROG WOULD RESULT IN MORE MIDLEVEL FORCING OVER OUTLOOK AREA SOONER...CONTRIBUTING TO EARLIER SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN 00Z ETA/NGM PROGS OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY MEAN FIELDS FROM 21Z SREF GUIDANCE. IN RESPONSE TO APCHG TROUGH ALOFT...SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER CENTAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND FOCUS MORE TIGHTLY OVER CO/NEB BORDER REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS WILL DECELERATE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME WARM FRONT DURING DAY...EXTENDING FROM NRN WI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...SERN SD AND CENTRAL/WRN BORDER SEGMENT OF SD/NEB. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT FARTHER S BY MORNING CONVECTION OVER NEB/SD BORDER AREA...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ITS N THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WOULD TIGHTEN BAROCLINIC GRADIENT AND PREVENT MUCH NWD MOVEMENT. LEE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM LOW TO FRONT...AND SSWWD ACROSS SERN CO AND EXTREME ERN NM...BY MID-AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD FORM OVER NERN NEB/SERN SD REGION AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN...WHILE FRONT SURGES SEWD AGAIN AS COLD FRONT...OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. ...NEB/SD TO MN/WI... BEST OVERLAP OF SEVERE TSTM INGREDIENTS...PARTICULARLY INSTABILITY/SHEAR/LIFT...ARE FCST INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NEB/SD BORDER REGION...FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATE A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK NEAR WARM FRONT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MCS OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB REGION...MOVING ENEWD TOWARD WI WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIATION OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE INVOF FRONT...AND PERHAPS ALONG SEGMENT OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FRONT SWWD TO LEE CYCLONE. PRIMARY CAVEAT ATTM INVOLVES QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY ONLY 50S F IN WARM SECTOR ADJACENT TO FRONT. STILL...THERE MAY BE NARROW CORRIDOR IN BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LCL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW...IN ENVIRONMENT OF TYPICALLY ENHANCED S-R INFLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY...ENHANCING TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INTERACTING WITH AND/OR MOVING ALONG FRONT. EXPECT ROUGHLY 9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO COUNTERACT LACK OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST S OF FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL MODES WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOW EVOLUTION IN EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 300-500 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER WITHIN THAT PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTING SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS...AND 200-300 J/KG SRH FARTHER S OVER WARM SECTOR. 0-6 KM SHEARS OF 40-50 KT SHOULD BE COMMON. THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE ONLY ONE STEP INCREASE IN EITHER SEVERE HAIL OR TORNADO PROBABILITIES WOULD COMPEL MDT CATEGORICAL RISK INVOF NEB/SD BORDER...WHICH WOULD BE LIKELY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND BETTER SPATIAL CERTAINTY REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION. SUCH AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN A SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOK IF THESE FACTORS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND EWD 50-100 NM ACROSS HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CAPPING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT ANY SUSTAINED STORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...THEY FAVOR STRONGLY DEVIANT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS AS FAR S AS MUCH OF TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...FCST STORM-RELATIVE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH POSSIBLY IN 200-300 J/KG RANGE FOR CELLS MOVING VARIOUS DIRECTIONS BUT LESS THAN 10 KT. ACTIVITY FROM WRN KS SSWWD -- WELL S OF WARM FRONT -- WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 12:59:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 07:59:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405161259.i4GCxmo29300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161256 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LSE EAR 50 NW CDS 30 E CVS 10 NW TCC 40 SE SNY 25 SW BFF 30 NW CDR 40 NW HON 40 SSW DLH 50 NE EAU LSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 25 N NIR LFK HOT 40 NW EVV UNI LBE 10 NW RUT 25 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG FAY 35 WSW FLO 10 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 WSW HVR 75 NE BIL BIS 35 ESE JMS 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 65 E MQT 35 SSW ESC 25 W JVL 15 WNW STJ 30 NNE P28 30 SSE BGS 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 35 WNW ONM 50 W RTN 20 NW COS 4FC 35 NE GJT 35 SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...NEB AND SD THROUGH NW IA...MN AND WI... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MN SWWD TO NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SRN PORTION WILL STALL TODAY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER CO WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER UT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SD. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TIMING WRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SUGGESTS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO...WY...NEB AND KS WILL BEGIN TO RECEIVE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON. THE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AS THEY CONTINUE EWD...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED SUPERCELL MODES...DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPDRAFTS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO CNTRL NEB/S CNTRL SD BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAINLY N OF THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS NWD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATING A SURFACE BASED STORM THAT CAN TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP IN WARM SECTOR...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH. ...ERN CO....WRN KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM ERN CO/ERN NM...SPREADING INTO WRN KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 16:34:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 11:34:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405161634.i4GGYio04456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161632 SWODY1 SPC AC 161629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF ROW 55 SSE RTN 25 WNW LAA 30 S BFF 20 N CDR 30 NNE ATY 65 ENE STC 30 N EAU 15 WNW LSE 25 E FOD 30 WSW LNK 25 ENE GCK 15 SSE LBL 15 ESE PVW 15 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 50 WSW HVR 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 60 SW JMS FAR 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 35 WNW ANJ 45 S ESC 25 W JVL 20 NE STJ 30 NNE P28 50 S CDS 15 SW ABI 45 SSW BWD 15 WNW AUS 15 E CLL 25 NNE LFK 20 S LIT 30 NW EVV UNI 15 N MRB 20 SSE NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX 40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 65 W COT ...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 15 N ONM 40 NW RTN 30 WNW COS 15 SSW 4FC 35 NE GJT 35 SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. LOSES AMPLITUDE AND EJECTS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEB BY LATE TODAY. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR SNY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...WITH INCREASING SLY FLOW ESTABLISHING A WARM FRONT NEWD INTO SERN SD/SRN MN DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER INTO FAR ERN NM/SWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN LLJ LATER TONIGHT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SHIFTING A COLD FRONT SSEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD. OTHER STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NEB ALONG ERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD NEWD INTO NERN NEB ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS FURTHER ENHANCING THE HAIL THREAT. THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT NE-SW ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALONG WRN EDGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD. STRONG CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN BREAKING CAP ACROSS SWRN NEB/FAR WRN KS BETWEEN 20-22Z...SUPPORTING RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS MAY LIMIT ANY PERSISTENT TORNADO POTENTIAL TO AREAS NEARER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SRN SD... POSSIBLY AS AN ORGANIZED LINE/BOW ECHO...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND TRANSITION INTO A LARGE HAIL THREAT AFTER 03-04Z ACROSS THE MID MO AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRY LINE INTO SERN NM/SWRN TX BY THE EARLY EVENING...AS STRONG HEATING AND MODEST MOISTURE OVERLAP. WEAK MCV SLOWLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS SWRN TX MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER NORTH /ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/...WLY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS DRY LINE RETREATS AND BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE VA TIDEWATER... WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY... WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF VA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 20:07:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 15:07:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405162007.i4GK73o15765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162003 SWODY1 SPC AC 162000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 40 SE LIC 15 SW SNY 25 WNW AIA 35 NE CDR 20 SE PHP 35 NNE ATY 10 WSW STC 25 ENE MSP 35 N RST 30 SSE RST 45 WSW ALO 55 ESE OMA 25 WSW BIE 30 N RSL 45 WSW RSL 20 WSW DDC 25 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP 50 NNE PSX 50 NE LFK 45 N GLH 15 N LOZ 25 WSW EKN 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX 40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... ELP 45 SSE ALS 50 N ALS 20 WNW CAG 25 SSE SUN 50 NNW BNO 10 S DLS 20 WSW SEA 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 25 N CTB 25 NNW GTF 15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25 WSW HIB 30 NE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 20 NE MTW 40 SSE OSH 15 NW MLI P35 25 NNE HUT 35 SSW P28 40 NW ABI 25 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS/NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SW MN THROUGH SE SD INTO NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB AND ERN CO. A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB WHERE UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO ALL OF THE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND SWD AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR NW KS BUT SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED FARTHER EAST. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE JET WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG. BECAUSE OF THIS...A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. STILL SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...AND A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS...W TX AND ERN NM AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SOLID LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN SD...CNTRL NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING...MOVING EWD INTO SE SD...ERN NEB...FAR IA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP OFF. ...VIRGINIAS/NC... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN VA. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:11:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:11:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405170111.i4H1BRo25779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170109 SWODY1 SPC AC 170106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE RST 30 NE MHK 40 NE DDC 40 SSW DDC 20 N EHA 55 S GLD 10 N HLC 30 NE ANW 15 ESE ATY 30 N MSP 35 N RST 20 SSE RST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CTB 25 NNW GTF 15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25 WSW HIB 30 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 40 SW RIC 30 NNE SOP 15 W AGS 60 N AYS 25 SE VLD 10 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP 50 NNE PSX 25 WSW LFK 55 NNE LIT POF 15 NE CRW 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 30 NE MKE 25 NE MKC 10 ENE GAG 30 W DHT 20 NE TAD 25 NNW LIC 25 NW FCL 25 SSE RIW 40 WNW IDA 30 SSW PDT 25 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MO VLY NEWD INTO UPPER MS VLY... MESOANALYSIS PLACES 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NCNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT NEWD INTO CNTRL MN AND A DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO SWRN NEB/WRN KS. NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS...A FEW TORNADIC...CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER CNTRL/NERN NEB. THESE STORMS RESIDE IN AN ENVIRONMENT RICH IN LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...LOW LCLS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS. FARTHER SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE MOSTLY EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENT FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO NCNTRL KS...MOVING 260/45-50 KTS. TAIL END OF THE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER WCNTRL KS HAS BEEN FOCAL POINT FOR ANOTHER TORNADIC SUPERCELL. UPSTREAM 00 UTC KDDC SOUNDING EXHIBITING A LARGE LOOPY HODOGRAPH AND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY. THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB VCNTY THE WARM FRONT. EVOLUTION INTO LEWPS/BOWS IS LIKELY AS NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND COLD POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...50-60 KT SLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS/S THAT WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN MN AND IA OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. MEANWHILE...50-60 KT LLJ WILL REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO E-W ORIENTED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE MCS GRADUALLY MOVES SSEWD. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 06:05:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 01:05:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405170605.i4H65Lo05302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170603 SWODY1 SPC AC 170600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLE 40 SW SZL 25 SW ICT LBL 20 E COS 45 SSW DGW 10 WSW CDR 30 ESE AIA 20 NE GRI 25 ESE MCW 50 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 15 NE GSB 30 SW FAY 10 SSE CAE 20 E AGS 45 NNW SAV 20 E SAV ...CONT... VRB 50 ENE FMY 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 10 ESE CRP 45 N VCT 25 WNW CLL 45 SE DAL 40 SE MLC 15 NE HRO 55 SSW STL 10 W ALN 25 NE SGF 25 WSW JLN 20 WSW PNC 35 ENE GAG 35 W GAG 45 NNW CDS 55 ESE LBB 10 ESE BGS 10 S P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 ESE TCC 40 NNE CAO 30 NNE EGE 45 ENE VEL 45 NW PUC 55 NNE ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 35 WSW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 NNW RAP 40 SSE PHP 50 SSW MHE 40 WNW RWF BRD 30 NNW ELO ...CONT... 30 NW PBG 30 W ALB 20 NE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WSWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE ERN PAC BASIN WILL SWING SEWD INTO NRN CA AND ORE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLYS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND GRTLKS. ONE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM THE ERN DAKS EARLY MONDAY TO THE NRN GRTLKS MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM UPPER MI-NRN WI-CNTRL MN EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE PROGRESS EWD DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH. BUT...TAIL END OF SAME FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VLY...CNTRL PLAINS AND ERN CO. TO THE EAST...A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS... MONDAY MORNING LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND NRN GRTLKS. AIR MASS ALONG SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION FROM SRN/ERN IA INTO CNTRL/SRN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTMS CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NE AS LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS NRN ILL AND NRN IND DURING MONDAY EVENING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS DIURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE. ...LOWER MO VLY WWD TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING CLOUDS/TSTMS AS A SLIGHT REBOUND IN HEIGHTS OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL KS TOWARD THE LWR MO VLY. PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LWR MO VLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS WILL THEN LIKELY BACKBUILD/DEVELOP WWD ALONG THE FRONT TO TRIPLE POINT OVER WCNTRL/SWRN KS BY EVENING. OTHER TSTMS COULD FORM IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/WY. LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN KS. DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN MO AND ERN KS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE MCS MAY FORM ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE ENEWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT MONDAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ...OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN THE OH VLY AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONGEST-LIVED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FAVOR THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS COULD ROTATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN CA/ORE... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN CA/ORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN NRN CA AND ORE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR COULD RESULT IN LONGER LIVED...ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY GIVE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...ENOUGH FOR A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY/BRIGHT.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 13:03:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 08:03:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405171302.i4HD2io02585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171300 SWODY1 SPC AC 171257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW BUF 30 ESE FDY 40 SSE SPI 40 WSW CNU 20 NE EHA 25 NNE PUB 35 S LAR 40 NNE LAR 20 SW IML 35 ESE GRI RST 25 W ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 50 ENE FMY 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 15 NE GSB 30 SW FAY 10 SSE CAE 20 E AGS 45 NNW SAV 20 E SAV ...CONT... 30 NW PBG 30 W ALB 20 NE ISP ...CONT... 10 ESE CRP 45 N VCT 25 WNW CLL 45 SE DAL 40 SE MLC 15 NE HRO 55 NNW POF 25 WSW BLV 20 WNW SGF 25 E BVO 20 WSW PNC 40 ENE GAG 25 SW GAG 45 NNW CDS 55 ESE LBB 10 ESE BGS 10 S P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 ESE TCC 40 N CAO 15 ENE ASE 45 ENE VEL 45 NW PUC 55 NNE ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 35 WSW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 SSE REJ 45 SSE PHP 50 SSW MHE 40 WNW RWF BRD 30 NNW ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...THROUGH CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...... ...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH MN. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SW MN SWWD TO SW NEB WILL MOVE SWD AND EXTEND FROM CNTRL IA...SE NEB SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS THEN NWWD INTO ERN CO BY MID AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM A LEE LOW IN SW KS. THESE BOUNDARIES...AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM EXTREME SRN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF KS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO KS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS TRAVELING EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH PARTS OF KS. OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORTED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER W OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO INTO SERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING MOIST ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AS SURFACE HEATING...DEEP MIXING AND CONVERGENCE WEAKEN CAP. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL ADVECT NEWD WITH TIME...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING...CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE WEAKER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL CONVECTION. EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...OR AND THROUGH EXTREME NRN CA... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES SUPPORTED BY DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:03:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:03:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405172003.i4HK38o16299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171959 SWODY1 SPC AC 171956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CLE 20 W SPI 30 SW CNU 30 NNW GAG GCK 45 N LAA 35 SE LIC 50 ENE LIC 40 ESE GLD 10 WNW LNK MCW EAU 15 ENE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 SSE REJ 40 SSW PHP 50 SSW MHE 30 ENE FSD 30 NE MSP 30 NE IWD ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 10 SSW BTV 30 WNW ALB 15 W ISP ...CONT... 25 NE ECG RDU CLT AHN 15 E MCN 60 SE MCN AGS 20 SSE FLO 20 NE OAJ HSE ...CONT... 35 N MLB 25 SE AGR 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP ALI 15 ENE NIR CLL 40 SE MLC FYV 35 WSW UNO SGF JLN BVO PNC 40 ENE GAG GAG CDS 45 SE LBB BGS 60 E FST 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 45 SSE LVS RTN 15 ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 45 NW PUC 45 N ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.... ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH EMANATED FROM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/NORTHWESTERN U.S...CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING WAVE/CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. EVOLUTION OF SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPS/PROPAGATES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. SYSTEM IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FRONT CURRENTLY TRAILS FROM ONTARIO SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF IT NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF FRONT...FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THIS SPREADS ACROSS UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...MODELS SUGGEST EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY AROUND 18/03Z. 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ACTIVITY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN... WHERE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO MERGING SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS BEST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AND AREA OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE RUSSELL/ CONCORDIA AREAS BY 18/00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET NOSING INTO/ THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND FORCING ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THIS OCCURS... PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM LARGE HAIL TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOLS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET. ..KERR.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 01:11:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 20:11:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405180111.i4I1BWo10372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180106 SWODY1 SPC AC 180103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW JHW 30 N PIT 30 NNE ZZV 15 WNW LAF 15 SW SPI 30 SW CNU 30 N GAG 20 NW EHA 40 S LHX 10 S PUB 25 WSW LIC 35 ESE LIC 50 SSW GLD 45 SW HLC 25 S BIE 50 SW FOD 35 SSE CWA 10 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 WSW PGO 60 NNW LIT 35 WSW UNO 15 ESE SGF 45 WNW FYV GAG CDS 45 SE LBB BGS 60 E FST 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 45 SSE LVS RTN 15 ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 45 NW PUC 45 N ENV 50 WSW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 65 WNW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 40 E 81V 65 E CDR 30 E OFK 10 SW RST 15 WNW CWA 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 10 SSW BTV 30 WNW ALB 15 W ISP ...CONT... 20 E ECG 30 W GSB 40 N SAV 35 S AYS 50 NW ORL 30 NNE FMY 20 S FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...IA/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY EWD TO GREAT LAKES REGION... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN WI TO SRN IA INTO CENTRAL KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT WHILE SECOND TROUGH MOVES ESEWD TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IL/SRN IA BY 12Z. WSWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AT 35-40 KT FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO SRN LOWER MI AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN IA TO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/ NRN IND/FAR NWRN OH BY 12Z. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO KS AREA... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM WRN TX/WRN OK TO 50 KT OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN...MOVES TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES. 35 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP STRONG LLJ WILL SUPPORT AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN-CENTRAL KS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS AS THE LLJ VEERS. ...GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION... ONGOING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS TO SRN PA/MD/VA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/ STABILIZES. UNTIL THEN...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 06:23:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 01:23:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405180623.i4I6NQo01577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180621 SWODY1 SPC AC 180618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HUL 15 WSW PVD 20 WSW DOV 45 ESE PKB 10 SW EVV HRO 20 W GAG 10 WSW EHA 15 WNW LAA 10 NW DEN CPR 15 NE COD 35 NNE BIL 25 SSE GGW 45 ENE ISN DVL 45 S JMS 30 NNE 9V9 OFK 10 WSW LWD 15 S MMO 15 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 30 SSE AUS 50 ENE ACT 30 SW PRX 35 S MLC 45 E OKC 35 NE CSM 20 NW AMA 35 NE TCC 30 S RTN 50 E GUC 35 SW MTJ 30 W 4BL 40 SSW BCE 65 NNE P38 30 N ELY 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA ...CONT... 30 W RRT 25 E FAR 25 E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SWWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS/DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DEVELOPING SWD TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES EWD TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEAST TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC REACHING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SWWD TO WRN NY AND CENTRAL OH BY 00Z...AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OH VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD THIS MORNING ACROSS IND TO MO...AS IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD...REACHING A LINE FROM SWRN KS TO WRN OK SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ERN MT. ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO OH VALLEY... 30-40 KT WSWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES WITH LOWER-MID 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS FAR NEWD AS WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PA MAY INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN PA/NJ THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AREA DESTABILIZES WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND TO NY AND NRN/WRN PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 40-50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. 30-45 KT OF WLY 850 MB FLOW WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH HAIL A THREAT AS WELL. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN IND THIS EVENING... GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS AREA WITH A THREAT FOR MULTI-CELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ...KS EWD MID MS VALLEY... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN UT...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE IT WEAKENS IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN KS THIS MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES INDICATE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS/DEVELOPS EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO/SRN IA LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS THIS EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KS SUPPORTING STRONG WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS WITH THE WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT EWD WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. MOST OF CENTRAL/WRN KS INTO NWRN OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TODAY PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND DRY LINE. HOWEVER...IF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES CAN BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND FAR NRN OK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES AND/OR CATEGORICAL RISK...IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LIKELY. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO DAKOTAS/NEB... SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THIS SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER 50 SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT BY 00Z AND AROUND 60 INTO ERN WY. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN CO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY NWD TO ERN WY/SERN MT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 50 KT SUPPORTING A WAA REGIME OVER THIS AREA. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO TN VALLEY... MARGINAL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING PULSE-TYPE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ISOLATED WET-MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:41:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:41:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405181641.i4IGfKo23874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181636 SWODY1 SPC AC 181633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 30 SSW EKN 20 ENE SDF 15 E CGI UNO 20 NNW HRO 20 ENE BVO 35 ESE P28 30 NW P28 25 E RSL 15 ENE MHK 15 NW SZL 30 S OTM 45 SSE CGX 30 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE WRL 30 ESE IDA 45 S 27U 60 S MSO 40 E LWT 35 E SDY 55 NNE BIS 30 SSE JMS 30 WNW HON 40 S 9V9 35 NNW LBF 45 SSW IML 40 E LIC 30 NNE COS 35 SSE SHR 25 NE WRL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 25 E FAR 25 E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC ...CONT... 25 N MLB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 35 SE AUS 50 N CLL PRX 25 ESE MLC 30 SW TUL 25 SW END 40 NNW CDS 40 W AMA 30 NNW LHX 10 SW 4FC 40 N GJT 20 NNE CNY 60 SW PUC 30 W U24 50 S ENV 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUL 25 SSW CON ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PAC NW EJECTS NEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MORE SUBTLE...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW SUPPORTING MCS OVER MO WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY. ...OZARKS ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... TAIL END OF MCS IS BEING FED BY STRONG SWLY LLJ ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. THIS JET AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z-21Z...BEFORE BACKING TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH THE THREATS OF HAIL/STRONG WINDS AS HEATING DESTABILIZES WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MO...TO THE SOUTH OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS NRN IND/IL /REFERENCE SWOMCD 736/. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ATTM...ACTIVITY IN MO IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KT AT 6KM ON AREA VWP AND PROFILERS/. THIS SUGGESTS SHEAR AHEAD OF COLD POOL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z NEAR THE MID MS RIVER...AND ALONG COLD FRONT FROM OH INTO CENTRAL IND...WITH SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING EWD BETWEEN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND... INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FROM PA NWD AS MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS NRN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM CLUSTERS/SMALL LINES WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NRN CHESAPEAKE TODAY...STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS OVER SRN MT TODAY. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN ID INTO SWRN/SRN MT TO SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP. UPSLOPE/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY INTO ERN CO/ERN WY AND INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN WY/CO...ANY STORM WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AS THEY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB AFTER DARK ALONG INCREASING SLY LLJ. ...KS/WRN MO... SEVERE THREAT REMAINS COMPLICATED ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS PUSHES SWD INTO SERN KS/CENTRAL MO...AND MERGES WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. THOUGH CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...LLJ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND ERN OK...WHICH WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION. ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE OF STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:09:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:09:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405182009.i4IK9Qo15351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182005 SWODY1 SPC AC 182002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 30 SSW EKN 20 ENE SDF 15 E CGI UNO 20 NNW HRO 20 ENE BVO 35 ESE P28 30 NW P28 25 E RSL 40 SW FNB 15 ENE STJ 30 NE IRK 45 SSE CGX 20 ESE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE WRL 30 ESE IDA 45 S 27U 60 S MSO 40 E LWT 35 E SDY 55 NNE BIS 30 SSE JMS 30 WNW HON 40 S 9V9 35 NNW LBF 45 SSW IML 40 E LIC 30 NNE COS 35 SSE SHR 25 NE WRL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 35 SE AUS 50 N CLL PRX 25 ESE MLC 30 SW TUL 25 SSW END 40 ENE GAG GAG 25 ESE CDS 20 ESE P07 30 WSW P07 30 NW FST 30 NE PVW 30 N LHX 10 SW 4FC 40 N GJT 20 NNE CNY 60 SW PUC 30 W U24 50 S ENV 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA ...CONT... 30 W RRT 50 SW BJI 25 E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC ...CONT... 25 N MLB 25 WNW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUL 25 SSW CON ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...WRN NEW ENGLAND/NY SWD TO MID ATLANTIC AREA... SRN PERIPHERY OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE NERN STATES WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAVE PROVEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS OVER WRN/NRN NY STATE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING CELLS...THOUGH MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUSTENANCE OF A SUPERCELL THREAT. OTHERWISE...IF TSTM CLUSTERS CAN BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. FLOW IS BACKED IN THE HUDSON RVR VLY...AND IF A SUSTAINED TSTM CAN DEVELOP...THE GREATEST BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HUDSON RVR VLY. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE...CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARIES AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CAP ARE SUPPORTING TSTM CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER NORTH WITH STERLING/CHARLESTON WV VWP SHOWING MIDLEVEL FLOW AOB 20 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H5 TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY ARGUE FOR MORE PULSE-TYPE SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT REGION IS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WLYS...PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW AND WEAK CAP...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY TSTM THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. ...MIDWEST/OH VLY... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS HAS REGENERATED OWING TO HEATING AND REGIONAL CONVERGENCE BENEATH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO BOWS AND LEWPS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL/IND AND PARTS OF KY/OH LATER TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH /30-35 KTS/ TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED FROM OVERNIGHT KS MCS HAS STALLED ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND COULD RETREAT TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IN CNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS AND DEEPER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...A SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS AND UNLESS THERMAL RIDGE CAN BEGIN DEVELOPING NEWD...CINH MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTM INITIATION. THUS... PARAMETERS ARE NOT CONVINCING ENOUGH TO BUY INTO 18Z RUC2 SOLUTION OF INITIATION ACROSS SCNTRL KS. NONETHELESS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE SLIGHT RISK SINCE GIVEN A STORM... KINEMATICS/THERMODYNAMICS WOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AGAIN IF TSTMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE ID AREA TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH COLD POCKET ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF ID. THESE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF BRIEF ORGANIZATION GIVEN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STORMS MOVE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ID...HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...AS THE WAVE MOVES NEWD...LLJ WILL LIKELY ADVECT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S. THESE WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. REF SWOMCD 743 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER SWRN TX TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SEVERE WINDS. A TSTM THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED...ALONG WITH LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE. ..RACY.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 01:02:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 20:02:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405190101.i4J11uo16832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190059 SWODY1 SPC AC 190056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BIL 40 E LWT 45 ESE ISN 50 NW JMS 20 N ABR 15 NNW 9V9 50 NE AIA 45 SSW IML 25 E LIC 20 ENE DEN 55 SW GCC 15 SSE BIL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35 NNE SSU 30 SE SDF 40 N DYR 15 S UNO 30 WNW HRO 15 E BVO 35 ESE P28 35 NW P28 10 NNE HSI 20 WSW FNB 30 SW P35 35 WSW BRL 45 SSE CGX 30 E TOL ...CONT... 30 WSW ERI 25 SW BGM ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSX 10 ESE CLL 40 WSW TYR 10 E PRX 20 NNE PGO 25 SSW MKO END 50 E GAG 25 ESE GAG 25 SSW LTS 20 ESE P07 30 WSW P07 30 NW FST 30 NE PVW 30 N LHX 10 SW 4FC 20 NE RKS 10 ESE MLD 20 SSW OWY 70 WSW BNO 20 N ONP ...CONT... 30 W RRT 50 SW BJI 25 E OTG 35 ESE FOD 30 WNW MLI CGX 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 20 SW BUF 45 WSW ALB 15 ESE RUT 20 E BML 20 ESE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HSE 20 S FAY 25 SSE AGS 35 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PA/OH/IND AND IL OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NJ WWD TO SRN OH TO NEAR STL BY 12Z. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS BECOME CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER AIR MASS STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... THOUGH RESIDUAL POCKETS OF MODERATE SBCAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 752. ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED IN SEVERE ACTIVITY...THE WELL ORGANIZED MCV...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IL...WILL PROGRESS EWD TO OH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL IND TO CENTRAL PA. ...NEB/KS/MO... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO WWD TO CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...BUT IS CAPPED PER 00Z RAOBS. SWLY NOCTURNAL LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 40-50 KT ACROSS WRN TX/WRN OK...AND NOSE INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN KS INTO MO...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NWD INTO SRN NEB. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND STRONG CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES /WRN MT/...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. MEANWHILE...SELY 25-30 KT SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NEB NWWD INTO ERN WY/MT HAS RESULTED IN LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN MT AND SWRN ND...AND 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS INTO ERN WY. DESPITE EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS SUPPORTING AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL CO NWD TO SERN MT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADS ENEWD ABOVE MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS PER STRENGTHENING LLJ. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN MT/NWRN WY MAY CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WAA REGIME INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. MCS SHOULD THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...AS THE INCREASING LLJ VEERS TO SLY. 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT ALONG MCS TRACK. ..PETERS.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 06:09:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 01:09:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405190608.i4J68ho10898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190605 SWODY1 SPC AC 190602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW YKN 45 N ATY 20 NW AXN 30 NW RWF 25 NNW FRM 10 SSE MCW 15 SW ALO 35 SW OTM 40 NNE FNB 20 SW LNK 20 NNE GRI 50 WSW YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ORF 15 W BLF 25 NE BWG 10 ESE MDH JEF 25 ENE MKC 20 NNE MHK 40 SSW EAR 10 SW LBF 20 ENE PHP 40 NE Y22 50 NNW MOT ...CONT... 35 NNW TVC GRR 45 NNE FWA 35 SSE FDY 20 SSE AOO 25 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 S GWO 40 N TUP 15 NNE MKL 20 ESE POF 20 NE JLN 40 SSW EMP 20 WNW HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 20 ESE P07 ...CONT... 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 30 NW SAC 50 SW MHS 35 NE MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SYR 10 NNE ELM 15 S AVP 15 S BDR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/ERN SD/SWRN MN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... NERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD TODAY ACROSS ALASKA...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM PACIFIC NW TROUGH TO RETROGRADE SWWD ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SRN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER CENTRAL MT...WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ND/FAR SRN CANADA AS AN OPEN...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...REACHING CENTRAL ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE... A LEE LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN...AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REACHING MI/OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FOCI FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY... PARTICULARLY IN THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE EAST...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NERN STATES TO UPPER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD AND BE REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. ...LOWER MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN SD INTO ND WITHIN MOIST/WAA REGIME TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...SUPPORTING ISOLATED HAIL. NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND SECOND SLY LLJ OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NNEWD. AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS 16-18C BY 00Z ACROSS ERN NEB/...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN SD/ERN NEB INTO IA WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG/ OVER ERN NEB/FAR WRN IA. NNELY RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS NWRN MN AND EWD INTO WI THIS EVENING AND NRN IL OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN WILL RESULT IN STRONG WLY ORIENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45-60 KT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS... ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ONGOING STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL REDEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM ERN SD/NERN NEB/WRN IA...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/FAR SWRN MN AND WRN/SRN IA WHERE SHEAR VECTORS FAVOR STORMS REMAINING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S WITH THE THREAT TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE INTO WI/ERN IA/NRN IL. ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/ERN NEB AND UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER 00Z. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD TO THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY... SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SAG SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WWD TO THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NEWD ALONG TROUGH IN LEE OF THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. LONG-LIVED MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ERN IND/WRN OH...WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY ENHANCING WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP WLY FLOW WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LINES/BOW SEGMENTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH HAIL. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN OH WWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN HALF OF MO INTO WRN IL. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE MULTI-CELL STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 12:46:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 07:46:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405191245.i4JCjmo27769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191243 SWODY1 SPC AC 191240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FNB 35 WSW LNK 20 N GRI 65 W YKN 10 NE HON 40 NE ATY 35 NE RWF 30 SE MKT 25 W ALO 35 W OTM 35 NE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ 10 SSE GRR 20 ENE FWA 10 NNE CMH 30 S HLG 20 SE ACY ...CONT... 25 E ECG 30 ENE TRI 25 SSW CGI 20 N SGF 45 SSW EAR 45 NW BBW 15 SSW BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 10 NNE ERI 10 SSE ELM 10 W MSV 25 SSW GON ...CONT... 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... --POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY-- ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WLY FLOW /I.E. 40-50KTS AT 500MB/ ACROSS NEB AND IA...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER WRN OH WILL PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE DELMARVA REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS ND TODAY...PRIOR TO WEAKENING OVER SWRN ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW SWWD THROUGH ERN SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB BY 20/00Z. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT OVER KS HAS ALREADY STARTED A NWD RETREAT THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM INTERSECTION WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL/SERN SD SEWD ACROSS NERN NEB INTO CNTRL OR SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NWD RETURN OF THAT PORTION OF FRONT OVER MO MAY BE SLOWED BY ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL MO...MAKING FUTURE LOCATION ACROSS IA MORE UNCERTAIN. FARTHER E...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL SAG SWD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WITH WWD PORTION NEAR THE OH RIVER BY AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION BAND EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD TODAY INTO MN ALONG AXIS OF PERSISTENT 30-40KT SSWLY LLJ. THOUGH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED...DECREASING STABILITY WITH TIME AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWD ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...AS WELL AS SEWD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN/CNTRL IA. THOUGH MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RAPID NWWD ADVECTION OF STRATUS BENEATH SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. EXPECT MLCAPES TO APPROACH 1000-2500 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...WITH VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NEB WITH MLCAPES REACHING 3500-4000 J/KG. SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE COLOCATED WITH WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SEWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND /MORE SO/ EVENING HOURS. JUXTAPOSITION OF 45-55KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAVE LONG RESIDENCE TIME ALONG JUST N OF WARM FRONT OVER SERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ...DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN KY/WV EWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO S OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30KTS AT 500MB WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG SRN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER W...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER MO INTO SRN IL MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NWRN/CNTRL MO INDICATE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 16:42:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 11:42:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405191642.i4JGgao11200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191640 SWODY1 SPC AC 191637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ECG 35 SE BWG 30 NNW SGF 10 ESE HSI 30 SE SNY 20 WNW AIA 35 N PIR 45 N MOT ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 40 SSE ESC 30 SSW MSN 40 SW RFD 25 SSW MMO 10 WNW LAF 25 NNW DAY 30 SSE HLG 20 SE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE ERI 10 SSE ELM 10 W MSV 25 SSW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO VA... ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONG IMPULSE NOW EJECTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS AND SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY NWD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN ND TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST/FOG WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE ERN NEB/ERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY BREAK UP AND SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO GREAT THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TO JUSTIFY A MODERATE RISK /ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK/. HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE FORECASTS WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE PROBABILITIES. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE PLACED UNDER RISING HEIGHTS/ TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THEREFORE IT APPEARS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND AND ERN SD/NERN NEB AROUND 21Z...PENDING ON DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES FROM AROUND 20Z-02Z. AFTER WHICH...ACTIVITY WILL RIDE EAST OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ALONG LLJ AXIS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT. TAIL END OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO SYSTEM AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY/CAP GRADIENT ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY WITHIN EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CAP BREAK ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB/SWRN IA. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRENGTH OF CAP SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. ...HIGH PLAINS... DEEP MIXING WITHIN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW CAP TO ERODE AND SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN TX. SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DUE TO THE STRONGER SHEAR. ...VA INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE VA COAST WWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NWD TOWARDS THE SRN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE RUC/ETA TO SHIFT ACROSS VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT...A BROAD RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL /20-30 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...YET WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 20:14:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 15:14:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405192013.i4JKDno03669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192010 SWODY1 SPC AC 192007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW ANJ 15 ENE LNR 15 SW DBQ 20 WSW BRL LWD 35 NNE FNB 20 SSE OLU 15 NE ANW 35 NNW VTN 15 ENE PIR 60 NE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HSE 20 NNE BWG 30 S BMG 10 W CRW 25 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ESE OSC 15 N PKB 15 SSE HGR 30 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...NRN PLAINS TO THE GTLKS REGION... FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS CONCERNS AREAS FROM CNTRL ND EWD INTO NWRN MN. MODEST POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE NCNTRL ND/CANADA BORDER ALONG STRONGEST DCVA/SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH INTO CNTRL/ERN ND AND ERN/SRN SD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS PRECEDING CLOUDS ERODE. MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS 60S DEW POINTS SURGE NWD BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS APT TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE NARROW. ...CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VLY EWD TO UPPER MS VLY... 18 UTC SOUNDING FROM KLBF SHOWS THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING NOSING NWD IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND EVEN KOMA BALLOON INDICATED 1-2 DEGREES C WARMING OVER 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY CAP SURFACE BASED PARCELS ACROSS MOST OF NEB SWD THROUGH KS. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE RAPIDLY ALONG THE MO RVR AND ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NWRN IA...INDICATIVE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERMAL RIDGE IS NOSING NWD THROUGH THE MO VLY AND LINES OF CU ARE FORMING JUST NORTH OF THE NEB BORDER AND ALSO WEST OF HURON. CONTINUED HEATING...SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO FORM ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP FROM SRN SD/EXTREME NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS ELEVATED...MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL SD/NERN NEB IN A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN MOVE ESEWD INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA LATER THIS EVENING. PRIND THAT INITIAL TSTMS MAY BE DISCRETE AND GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA/SERN SD OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THE LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SITUATED E-W OVER CNTRL/SRN VA NWWD INTO KY. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED ALONG SRN PORTION OF THE STRONGER WLYS. IF TSTMS CAN ORIENT BOUNDARIES ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... HIGH BASED TSTMS INITIATED ALONG THE SERN NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS HEATED CONSIDERABLY. THESE TSTMS MAY MIGRATE ENEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 01:15:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 20:15:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405200115.i4K1FVH23810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200113 SWODY1 SPC AC 200110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ANJ 25 ENE MSN 25 SSE MMO 15 W BMI 40 W MLI 45 WSW ALO 35 ENE SUX 35 SSW 9V9 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 45 W TCC 35 SE LHX FCL 35 WSW RWL 40 ESE EVW 20 N EKO 60 NNW SAC 40 WNW UKI ...CONT... 20 N ACV 45 NNE 4BK 40 WNW RDM 45 WNW YKM 65 NW 4OM ...CONT... 15 S APN 20 E BEH 30 NE MIE 25 NE ZZV MRB 30 NE SBY ...CONT... 15 ENE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE GPT 35 SE ESF 40 SSW GWO 25 SW CBM 40 SW HSV 30 NNW HSV 35 N HOP ALN 25 SSW DSM 20 W OLU 35 ESE MHN 45 NW VTN 35 ENE PHP 35 N MBG 40 W BIS 20 WNW DIK 25 SE MLS 60 N SHR 45 ENE COD 30 NW WRL 25 SSW WRL 50 E RIW 35 NW DGW 60 NE DGW 15 W CDR 45 WSW MHN 25 W HLC 40 NNW GAG 45 WSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN/UPPER GREAT LAKES... STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WERE TRACKING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS NRN MN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS...SOME TORNADIC...HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NCNTRL AND NERN ND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE INCREASED ALONG PREFRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN SD IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY ABR 00Z RAOB. WHILE THERE MAY BE A NARROW N-S CORRIDOR ACROSS EXTREME WRN MN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SURFACE-BASED STABILITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A ELEVATED HAIL/ISOLD WIND THREAT AS WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS...SUSTAINED BY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING...SPREAD EWD ACROSS MN AND INTO WRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...INTENSE...LONG-LIVED...AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ALONG NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND CAP ACROSS NRN IA. RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST SOME BACKBUILDING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS CONVECTION COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LLJ SHOWING UP ON SLATER IA WIND PROFILER. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF THIS OCCURS LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL IA WOULD SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INITIALLY. HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...AND ONE SUPPORTED BY MOST RECENT ETA/RUC/GFS GUIDANCE...IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AND DEVELOP ESEWD AS AN MCS FROM NERN IA INTO SWRN WI/NRN IL OVERNIGHT. A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF ENVIRONMENT SHEAR. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 05:59:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 00:59:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405200559.i4K5x1H24968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200556 SWODY1 SPC AC 200553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 15 NW SYR 15 NW HTS 25 E SDF 15 WSW STL 30 ESE MKC 30 NNE RSL 55 WNW GCK 40 SSE LAA 25 SW LHX 25 S DEN 40 NE DEN 30 WSW MHN 10 N YKN 10 WSW FOD 35 SSW MTW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE AVP 20 ESE HGR 15 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW MOT 70 ENE ABR 40 NW EAU 30 N RHI 130 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 SE ONM 45 ESE ABQ 40 NNW LVS 25 ESE ALS 50 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 30 W ASE 20 SSE GJT 35 N CEZ 30 SE BCE 10 ENE MLF 50 SSE ELY 70 WNW P38 40 SSE BIH FAT 20 ESE UKI 30 SE EKA 35 E OTH 20 NW SLE 15 NNE UIL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E PSX 50 NE HOU 30 NNW LCH 45 WNW JAN 20 SE MEM 25 ENE ARG 35 SSE TBN 50 SSE OJC 25 WNW EMP 55 S RSL 40 SE LBL 45 E PVW 25 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH/CNTRL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID WEST...TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A ZONE OF FAST CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST/GREAT BASIN. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM GREAT LAKES IMPULSE WHICH WILL TRAIL WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND HIGH PLAINS. THE ERN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MIDSECTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...FROM LOWER MI WEST TO THE NEB/KS BORDER...WILL STALL BENEATH SRN EDGE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL BACK INTO ERN CO...PROBABLY INTERSECT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER SERN CO. ...MIDWEST/ERN GREAT LAKES... MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI EARLY TODAY WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE. AS CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...ASCENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAINTAIN A BAND OF TSTMS FROM WRN/UPSTATE NY SWWD ACROSS NWRN PA AND INTO OH. THE STORMS ACROSS NY WILL MOVE INTO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM LOWER MI ACROSS NRN IND AND OH. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY ALONG THE MCS OUTFLOW OVER NRN IND/OH AREAS...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MI. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE FRONT AND WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL/ORGANIZED MULTICELL ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ETA...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS...HAVE DEVELOPED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS IA/NRN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING AND VERY HIGH INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS MO/ERN KS WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREA. ...ERN CO/CNTRL PLAINS... MOIST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM SERN CO/SWRN AND CNTRL KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY HIGH VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ARE FCST COINCIDENT WITH THIS INSTABILITY ON AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN CO ENEWD TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. TSTMS ARE APT TO INITIATE OVER ERN CO AND SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR CELLS INVOF LEE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...AS WELL AS STORMS TRACKING ALONG/NEAR AND ACROSS THE FRONT FROM ERN CO ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK AS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER AFTER DAYBREAK. FARTHER EAST...CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS IF HEATING CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION. ERN CO/WRN KS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AND SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM MEAN WRN TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME BUT A WIND AND HAIL HAZARD COULD DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB/SERN SD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE DURING PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARGINAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 12:47:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 07:47:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405201246.i4KCktH16481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201244 SWODY1 SPC AC 201241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 15 NNW SYR 20 NNW HTS 25 E SDF 10 N TBN 35 S SZL TOP 30 N RSL 40 SE LAA 30 SSE LHX 15 ESE PUB 15 N COS 20 ESE FCL 40 SE CYS 25 ENE VTN 25 E MHE 35 NW FRM RST 30 W OSH 10 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB PIE ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 30 N HOU 50 WSW POE 50 E MLU 40 NNE GLH 65 SSW JBR 40 SE HRO 20 NNE JLN 15 SSW EMP 55 S RSL 40 SE LBL 45 E PVW 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 25 W ELP 35 SE ONM 45 ESE ABQ 40 NNW LVS 25 ESE ALS 50 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 30 W ASE 20 SSE GJT 35 N CEZ 30 SE BCE 10 ENE MLF 50 SSE ELY 70 WNW P38 40 SSE BIH FAT 20 ESE UKI 30 SE EKA 35 E OTH 20 NW SLE 15 NNE UIL ...CONT... 55 NNE DVL 30 SE FAR 60 S DLH 30 N RHI 130 NE CMX ...CONT... 25 SE BOS 20 NNE AVP 20 ESE HGR 15 SSE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH GENERALLY A CYCLONIC...CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NERN STATES. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN ONTARIO/WRN GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/NERN NM. THE FORMER WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE LATTER WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE WWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO BY EARLY EVENING. WRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO LIFTING NWD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. ...ERN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE MIDWEST... LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN CANADA SHOULD SUSTAIN EWD-MOVING MCS /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI/. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN FEED OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN FLANK OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM. WHILE MAJORITY OF MCS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...SRN FLANK MAY AFFECT LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE INTO WRN NY LATER TODAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW VEERING AND MODESTLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WWD ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND/OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ONGOING MCS. WRN EXTENT OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY ABILITY OF STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WHICH HAS SPREAD E OF THE MS RIVER PER 12Z ILX SOUNDING. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THAT PART OF INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ DEVELOPING BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM ERN IA EWD/NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ...ERN CO AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY INVOF OF FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE WHERE INTENSIFYING ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND RESULTANT ADIABATIC COOLING OVERCOMES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA IS CURRENT ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE N/NE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP RICHER MOISTURE TO THE E ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH OF 250-300 J/KG SUGGEST THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT... ADDITIONAL TSTMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 16:31:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 11:31:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405201631.i4KGVDe16132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201629 SWODY1 SPC AC 201625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 20 SSE SYR DUJ 20 WSW HLG 40 SSE MIE 35 S UIN TOP 25 SE BIE 35 ENE OMA 30 NNE ALO 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CAO 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD 35 SSE EHA 30 SW CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40 N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 25 NE MKL 10 NNW DYR JBR 35 SSE HRO 20 NNE BVO 20 N BVO 10 SSE P28 15 NW GAG 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 45 SSW LVS 20 SE SAF 35 NNE SAF 45 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 40 W ASE 35 W 4HV 55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 10 ENE MKT 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN PORTION CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... ERN PART OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS KS INTO NERN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLAINS PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN IA INTO NERN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST BUT STRONGLY CAPPED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...CAP WILL BE WEAKER FROM ERN IA INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ATOP LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND MOVE EWD INTO IA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA/FAR SERN WI INTO NRN IL/IND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RESPECTABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...SUGGESTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE AS STORMS SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI IS MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY... DUE TO EARLY MCS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MOIST AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. DESPITE STRONG CAP OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR NWRN MO/NERN KS INTO SRN IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE CAPPING...SEVERE THREAT INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION OF SLIGHT RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL THAN POINTS FARTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES OVER STABLE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE LAYER INTO IA/NRN IL/SRN WI WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER INTO NEB/SD. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ...ERN GREAT LAKES... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODEST WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LINES/SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION TODAY...WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY FOR MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY 21Z. PRESSURE RISES WERE OBSERVED OVER ERN CO PLAINS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A EAST AND THEN SELY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WEAK IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND AID INITIATION BY THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STEERING FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WILL TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THEY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MIXING WITHIN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO OVERCOME CAPPING ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO ERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION EWD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 20:10:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 15:10:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405202009.i4KK9te15301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202006 SWODY1 SPC AC 202003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MSS SYR BFD 20 WNW HLG 40 SSE MIE 10 NNE UIN 10 NNE P35 50 SE OMA 35 NE OMA 45 SSW ALO 35 E VOK 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CAO 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD 35 SSE EHA 30 SW CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 55 WSW TCC 45 S RTN 15 SW TAD 45 WSW COS 20 ENE ASE 45 W ASE 25 W U28 55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 30 W MSP 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40 N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 20 SW PAH 10 SSW MDH 15 W BLV 30 S UIN 30 ESE STJ 25 WNW SLN LBL 15 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS DEBRIS ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO/NIAGARA AREA. NARROW AXIS OF RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT TSTMS BETWEEN 21-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD WRN NY. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO CNTRL NY OWING TO MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VLY/MIDWEST... ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS EDGED NEWD AS EVIDENCED BY H85-H7 WARMING ON THE DAVENPORT AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUNDINGS. THE H7 TEMPERATURE AT CENTRAL ILLINOIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE ETA SOLUTION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE MID MS VLY AND ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS IA INTO NWRN IL. 18Z RUC40 IS INSISTENT ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN IL BETWEEN 21-00 UTC. COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND 18Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HOT PROD WAS NOSING NEWD TOWARD SCNTRL IA AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE THERE IN A FEW HOURS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHETHER SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATING ELEMENTS THAT COULD REACH AS FAR E AS THE UPPER OH VLY OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS EVOLUTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SINCE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESERVOIR WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VLY. MEANWHILE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI. MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EARLY MORNING MCS...BUT A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI. A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SWD WITH RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ALSO...NRN PERIPHERY OF PROBABLE MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE MID MS VLY MAY GRAZE SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SURFACE FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ERN CO WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S. USING A 74/50 PARCEL YIELDS 1300 J/KG SBCAPE AND WEAK CINH...AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO NEB/SD/IA/SRN MN OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL OUT ON THE PLAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD INTO SWRN KS...CNTRL TX PHNDL...WITH SRN PORTION THEN CURVING BACK SWWD INTO THE SERN NM MOUNTAINS. A FEW CU HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 22Z. ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. FARTHER SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ANCHORED ON THE MOUNTAINS OWING TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. CELLS MAY MIGRATE NEWD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:01:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:01:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405202200.i4KM0be19682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202157 SWODY1 SPC AC 202154 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 202150Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MSS SYR BFD 20 WNW HLG 40 SSE MIE 10 NNE UIN 10 NNE P35 40 NNW FNB 25 N OMA 45 SSW ALO 35 E VOK 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GLD EHA 40 WNW P07 50 S GDP 65 NE 4CR 25 WNW TAD 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40 N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 20 SW PAH 10 SSW MDH 15 W BLV 30 S UIN 30 ESE STJ 25 WNW SLN LBL 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 60 S LVS 20 WSW RTN 30 W TAD 45 WSW COS 20 ENE ASE 45 W ASE 25 W U28 55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 30 W MSP 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... AMENDED FOR ADDED SLIGHT RISK IN SRN HIGH PLAINS ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS ERN NM SWRN TX. A FEW TSTMS WILL POSSIBLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #223. REST OF DISCUSSION THE UNCHANGED FROM 20Z. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS DEBRIS ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO/NIAGARA AREA. NARROW AXIS OF RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT TSTMS BETWEEN 21-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD WRN NY. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO CNTRL NY OWING TO MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VLY/MIDWEST... ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS EDGED NEWD AS EVIDENCED BY H85-H7 WARMING ON THE DAVENPORT AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUNDINGS. THE H7 TEMPERATURE AT CENTRAL ILLINOIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE ETA SOLUTION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE MID MS VLY AND ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS IA INTO NWRN IL. 18Z RUC40 IS INSISTENT ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN IL BETWEEN 21-00 UTC. COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND 18Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HOT PROD WAS NOSING NEWD TOWARD SCNTRL IA AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE THERE IN A FEW HOURS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHETHER SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATING ELEMENTS THAT COULD REACH AS FAR E AS THE UPPER OH VLY OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS EVOLUTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SINCE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESERVOIR WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VLY. MEANWHILE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI. MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EARLY MORNING MCS...BUT A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI. A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SWD WITH RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ALSO...NRN PERIPHERY OF PROBABLE MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE MID MS VLY MAY GRAZE SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SURFACE FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ERN CO WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S. USING A 74/50 PARCEL YIELDS 1300 J/KG SBCAPE AND WEAK CINH...AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO NEB/SD/IA/SRN MN OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL OUT ON THE PLAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS. .... 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 01:11:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 20:11:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405210110.i4L1Age27393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210108 SWODY1 SPC AC 210104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 15 NW PSB 25 NW CMH 20 E CMI 50 ESE OMA 30 ESE GRI 15 SSE IML 35 SSW GLD 30 SSE CVS 25 SSE FST 50 NNW MRF 10 NNE ROW 45 N TCC 15 WNW LAA 25 SE FCL CYS 15 SSW CDR 20 W VTN 25 NNW YKN 30 WNW MCW LNR 25 NE MKE 35 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 20 NNW RTN 20 W DEN 20 E RWL 20 SE RKS 40 WSW VEL 40 E U24 75 SW ELY 30 NW TPH 65 SE TVL 40 NE SAC 40 ENE UKI 45 NW UKI 30 SSE SLE 25 NE SEA 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NW ISN 45 SE GDV 50 SE Y22 40 SSW ABR 25 S EAU 15 SE APN ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NW EEN 25 SSE HGR 15 N PSK 45 SW BLF 25 SSE JKL 30 ENE SDF 20 SE MTO 20 SSW SPI 20 NW FNB 15 ENE HLC 25 NW GAG 30 WNW LBB 30 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX/ERN NM AND ERN CO...ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST AND ERN GREAT LAKES.... ...MIDWEST/LOWER MI TO ERN GREAT LAKES... FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SWRN IA HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO BREACH INTENSE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MUCH MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS TAKING HOLD FROM ERN IA TO NRN IL. 00Z DVN RAOB...WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 34KT...IS PROBABLY QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF PREFRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE MS RIVER TO NRN OH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS IN LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/GENERALLY WEAK SRH AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE HAZARD SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS SEWD. ...NERN CO/SERN WY TO NEB AND WRN IA (LATE)... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAY LONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING HAS FINALLY RESULTED IN SUPERCELL INITIATION OVER SRN WELD COUNTY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE IN DENVER CYCLONE AND WEAK INHIBITION EXHIBITED ON EVENING RAOB. CELLS WITH ENE MOTION WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HELICITY WITH 0-3KM SRH ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 250 M2/S2. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH LFC AROUND 2KM...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS TO THE EAST OF CO...ACROSS MUCH OF KS...SRN NEB...AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...EITHER ONE OF TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS MAY UNFOLD TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE CAP AND THIS WARRANTS HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND IA. 1) ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CO INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND AN MCS SPREADS NEWD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ON INTENSIFYING LLJ...OR 2) INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AIDS IN NEW ELEVATED STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...AND DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL TAP ABUNDANT MUCAPE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ...HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO/ERN NM TO WEST TX... PRIMARILY DIURNAL FORCING/HEATING ON THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. A FEW CELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO FEED OFF A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND COLLAPSING STORMS COULD ALSO BRING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 05:54:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 00:54:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405210555.i4L5tMe01461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210554 SWODY1 SPC AC 210550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSE 15 ENE RWI 15 ENE DAN 45 WSW EKN 35 WNW UNI 15 NE SDF 25 NNW EVV 25 SSW DEC 40 SW OTM 20 N FNB 20 SE RSL 30 S DDC 50 W GAG 50 SSE EHA 25 SSW EHA 55 NE LAA 40 ENE AKO 30 W SNY 35 SSE DGW 40 SW GCC 40 ENE SHR 30 SE MLS 65 NNW REJ 30 SSE Y22 30 S ABR 45 E ATY 25 W MSP 25 NE AUW 15 NNW HTL 60 N MTC ...CONT... 20 NE ERI 20 N PSB 30 E HGR 25 SE DCA 20 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HUM 50 SW CBM 20 N DYR 45 W STL 35 NNE COU 35 NNE SZL 30 NE EMP 15 SE ICT 35 S END 35 ENE ABI 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 55 SW MRF 20 ESE HOB 15 N DHT LAA LIC DEN 25 NE EGE 25 NW GJT 10 WSW U28 50 NNE BCE 25 SSW P38 65 NNE NID 40 ENE MER 35 N UKI 40 NE 4BK 40 NW RDM 20 SE OLM 15 NNE UIL ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 SSE DVL 15 SE CMX ...CONT... 15 W MSS 30 ESE ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WHILE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN BC TO WA...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES... SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL ACT TO FLATTEN LARGE SCALE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST. THESE IMPULSES WILL TRAVEL WITHIN A BELT OF MODEST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AND ATOP WAVY FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM IA TO SRN WI/LOWER MI TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS. THE WEAKER ERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FRACTURED AND ILL-DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY. ...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC... MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT CENTER IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM INTENSE MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THIS TIME. THIS IMPULSE COULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/WV AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN AID DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS LEE/THERMAL TROUGH OVER ERN VA AND NRN NC. BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL FAVORABLY COINCIDE WITH STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION BUT ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND TIME OF DAY WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. FARTHER WEST...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ETA IS FCSTG CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IND BY 18Z. AGAIN...SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS MULTICELL UPDRAFTS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR WIND AND HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... STRONG MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. IN ADDITION TO STRONG LLJ FEEDING THIS COMPLEX...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT FROM IA ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI... AND INTO LOWER MI BY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. THE LEADING PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER ONLY WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WILL BE FUELED BY ABUNDANT INSTABILITY ON THE NRN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM ERN IA ACROSS IL/WI AND INTO LOWER MI. ...PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)... AS IA/MIDWEST STORM COMPLEX MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING... INTENSE HEATING AND VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEB TO THE OK PNHDL. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY ROUNDING BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO EMERGE OVER ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND SHARPENING DRYLINE SWD. DESPITE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS KS/OK REGIONS OF SLGT RISK...STRENGTH OF SURFACE HEATING...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT COINCIDING WITH DRYLINE CIRCULATION...SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS NEB...WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS WILL ALSO AID STORM INITIATION IN THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-60KT WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH AND INITIALLY FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HIGH LFC WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS HIGH-BASED...POTENTIALLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. TORNADO HAZARD MAY BE GREATER NEAR THE WARM FRONT ON THE SD/NEB BORDER WHERE LFC WILL BE LOWER AND SRH WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S AND MOVE TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 12:59:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 07:59:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405211300.i4LD04e09832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211258 SWODY1 SPC AC 211255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSE 15 ENE RWI 15 ENE DAN 35 E CRW 45 W UNI 40 WSW DAY 25 N HUF 25 N SPI OTM 20 N FNB 20 SE RSL 30 S DDC 45 WNW GAG 40 SSW LBL EHA 55 NE LAA 40 ENE AKO 30 W SNY DGW 40 SW GCC 40 ENE SHR 30 SE MLS 65 NNW REJ 30 SSE Y22 30 S ABR 45 E ATY 20 S EAU 35 NW OSH MBL 60 N MTC ...CONT... 35 NNW JHW 40 E BFD CXY DOV 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MSS BID ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSW HUM 50 SW CBM DYR 45 W STL 35 NNE COU 35 NNE SZL 30 NE EMP ICT 35 S END 35 ENE ABI 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 60 W MRF 25 E CNM DHT LAA LIC DEN 25 NE EGE 25 NW GJT U28 50 NNE BCE 25 SSW P38 65 NNE NID 40 ENE MER 35 N UKI 40 NE 4BK 40 NW RDM 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 SSE DVL 15 SE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO TIDEWATER ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH...AND ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGING OVER MOST OF GULF COAST. LONG FETCH OF GRADUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY CURVING FLOW WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN TROUGH -- WITH 250 MB JET AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 4 CORNERS TO BLACK HILLS THEN ACROSS NRN GREAT LAKES TO ERN QUE. WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MAY TRAVEL IN THIS FLOW STREAM AFTER EJECTING FROM BASE OF WRN TROUGH. ONE OF THESE FEATURES -- PRESENTLY OVER IA AND CONTRIBUTING TO SEVERE/ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR MS RIVER -- IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MI BY MID-DAY AND REACH UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS EVENING. MVC ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING PA/WV MCS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS DELMARVA REGION BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 21Z. AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL CO AND NWRN KS NEWD THROUGH LOW OVER SERN NEB...EWD ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/NWRN OH. FRONTAL SEGMENT FROM ERN NEB TO INDIANA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH TODAY AS WARM FRONT...BUT WITH SOME DELAY OVER WI/IL/LM AREA BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW EFFECTS FROM ONGOING MS VALLEY MCS. FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE EWD ACROSS PA/NJ. FRONT ALSO SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY -- AMIDST BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL SLYS AND E OF DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN CO NWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION AND INTO SRN ND BY 22/00Z. ...OH TO MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGION... ONGOING MCS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA - BUT STILL CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGE -- AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT TOWARD TIDEWATER. STORMS SHOULD FORWARD-PROPAGATE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW AND INCREASING SBCAPE. FRONTAL ZONE E OF APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD FOR MUCH OF PERIOD BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY MCS NOW CROSSING WV/PA APPALACHIANS...THOUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE EWD DESTABILIZATION OF WRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW POOL ON OH/PA/WV. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON IN ARC FROM COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF MVC...AROUND OUTFLOW EDGE AND NWWD INTO OH. SEPARATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS ERN VA IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT ALSO...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SMALL AFTERNOON CINH WITH MLCAPE UP TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. MAIN MODE S OF FRONT SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED BOW/LEWP MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AREA... ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL/LM REGION THIS MORNING WITH HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX MAY ACQUIRE SFC-BASED INFLOW AND STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY IF IT BACKBUILDS MUCH -- AS FOREGOING WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE STRONGLY HEATED DIABATICALLY. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 70S SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 30-40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR S OF FRONT. DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED WITH ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAY CROSS THIS REGION TODAY. BEST SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD E INVOF WARM FRONT -- AND AWAY FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- WHERE SHEAR/LIFT/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL AND MI/INDIANA BORDER REGION BY 21Z SHOW LARGE 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS WITH 250-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ...N-CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS NRN KS...SRN/ERN NEB...ERN SD AND IA...WITH MLCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NEAR AND N OF FRONT...AND E OF SFC ROUGH -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY DIURNAL STORMS THAT CAN BREAK CAP WOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO MODES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL STRONGLY TIED TO STORM-SCALE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS YET TO BECOME APPARENT. FARTHER W OVER HIGH PLAINS AND BLACK HILLS...STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN -- AMIDST INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALSO INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...PRODUCING STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING -- INITIATING INVOF DRYLINE AS INTENSE HEATING LOCALLY ERODES CINH...THEN MOVING EWD 50-100 NM BEFORE DISSIPATING. ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL EVENTS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE SWD FROM WRN KS ACROSS W TX...EXCEPT FROM PERMIAN BASIN SWD WHERE HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIFT FROM RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES MAY CONCENTRATE CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 16:36:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 11:36:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405211636.i4LGape29790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211635 SWODY1 SPC AC 211632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MHE BKX RST JVL CGX 35 ESE MMO MLI 50 NNE DSM 30 WNW OFK 35 SSE 9V9 35 NE MHE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSE RWI DAN SSU UNI LAF OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 30 NW CDS 30 SW MAF 35 E MRF 30 NW MRF 35 SW HOB 55 ENE CVS EHA GLD 15 ENE SNY BFF DGW GCC 4BQ 55 SSE GDV Y22 ATY MSP CWA TVC OSC ...CONT... BUF ELM CXY 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 40 NW JAN 30 ESE MEM 20 NE MTO 25 N SPI 30 ESE IRK OJC ICT 35 NE CSM 25 WSW SJT 10 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 10 S CNM 20 NW TCC LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 E SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB/SD INTO NORTHERN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS STATES...ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES STATES...INTO THE DELMARVA... BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KS/NEB. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM LOW ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL/IND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY. ...EASTERN SD/NEB INTO OH VALLEY... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA. SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT /REF WW231/. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO WI/NORTHERN IL. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE STRONG IN THIS ZONE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF FRONT. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING...ORGANIZING INTO A FAST MOVING MCS WITH AN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO NORTHERN IND OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MI/IND/OH/PA... MCS ONGOING OVER LOWER MI WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI...AND NORTHERN OH. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF IND/OH. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...SEVERE STORMS COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF PA/WV...AND VA/MD OVERNIGHT. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL SD/NEB/KS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENED CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM WESTERN KS/NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON. STEADILY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEB/SD...WHERE THEY MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NM/NORTHERN MEXICO WILL COMBINE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 20:08:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 15:08:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405212008.i4LK8se29365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212005 SWODY1 SPC AC 212002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FSD 30 WNW FRM RST JVL CGX 35 ESE MMO MLI 50 NNE DSM 45 ESE SUX 25 NNW SUX 20 ESE FSD. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AOO 25 SSE MGW 25 WNW ZZV 20 NW MFD 40 N CLE 30 NE JHW 35 ESE BFD 35 SSW AOO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ROC 20 NW ITH 20 SSE AVP 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 35 N HSE RWI 20 N GSO 20 SW SSU UNI LAF OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 30 NW CDS 10 SSE MAF 65 SW P07 45 WSW MRF 30 ENE CNM 55 ENE CVS EHA GLD 15 ENE SNY BFF 25 WSW CPR 15 SSE WRL 60 E BIL 55 SSE GDV Y22 25 E ATY MSP CWA TVC 20 NW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 N CNM 35 ESE TCC 35 SSE LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 SW SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 40 NW JAN 30 ESE MEM 20 NE MTO 25 SE UIN 35 ESE P35 10 NNW MKC ICT 35 NE CSM 25 WSW SJT 10 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IA/EXTREME SRN MN/EXTREME SWRN WI/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL OH/EXTREME SWRN NY/WRN PA AND EXTREME NRN WV INCLUDING THE NRN PNHDL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER OH VLY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... THERMAL RIDGE HAS NOSED UP THE ERN EDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPES ARE 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...PLUME OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STREAMED EWD THE LAST 24 HOURS INTO THE REGION AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH THE MASON-DIXON LINE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS... HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VLY... MATURE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ESEWD TOWARD THE ERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND NERN OH. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCS AND THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN NY...WRN/CNTRL PA AND ECNTRL/NERN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY OF HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE UPSTREAM ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI AND WINDS OF 65 KTS OR GREATER COULD OCCUR. THE STORMS MIGHT WEAKEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT CHARACTER OF THESE WELL-DEFINED MCS/S ARE OFTEN MAINTAINED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. GIVEN MEAN WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OVERNIGHT...ANY TSTM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM MAY TRAVEL INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH RISKS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... SOUTH OF FRONT: VSBL SATELLITE/MESOANALYSIS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED FROM THE MCS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER OH VLY WAS RETREATING NWD THROUGH NRN IL AND NERN IA. HOT PROD HAS DEVELOPED NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VLY AND PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED RAPIDLY ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN IA. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 70F DEW POINTS. THESE TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NRN IL AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN WI LATER THIS EVENING. PROFILER TIME SERIES FROM SLATER...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTS THAT THE 0-1KM SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN LOW LCLS...MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN A SMALL AREA OF ECNTRL IA AND EXTREME NWRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. NORTH OF FRONT: MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING EVOLUTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE ELEVATED THAN CELLS FARTHER SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. ...CNTRL PLAINS WWD TO THE HIGH PLAINS... WEST AND NORTH OF THE MO RVR...FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE...ADVECTING 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE WY HIGH TERRAIN ALREADY TODAY AND THESE WILL MIGRATE ENEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING. 18Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWS THAT CINH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND TSTMS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS EWD INTO PARTS OF SD AND SWD INTO PARTS OF WRN NEB ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH/FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. THERE COULD ALSO ISOLD TORNADOES...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ON THE PLAINS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOIST AXIS EXISTS AND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS THE STRONGEST. THIS ACTIVITY...AND OTHER TSTMS...WILL DEVELOP/MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MO VLY OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND SEVERE THREATS. ..RACY.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 01:11:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 20:11:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405220111.i4M1Bie29079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220109 SWODY1 SPC AC 220106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N YKN 10 NNW FSD 35 NE MCW 15 NNE JVL 15 NW SBN 45 SW SBN 25 NNW MLI 50 NNE DSM 35 E SUX 20 WNW SUX 10 N YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ECG 45 NNW RWI 25 S ROA 20 SE BKW 55 WNW LUK 20 N DNV 25 E OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 35 NNW CDS 30 NNE AMA 35 N GCK 30 S IML 55 E CDR 35 SSW PHP 15 NE RAP 25 NW REJ 60 N REJ 15 SW DIK 35 W BIS 10 SSE ABR 40 E ATY CWA 40 ESE MBL 45 N MTC ...CONT... 20 NNE ERI 45 NW IPT 20 SSE AVP 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 N CNM 35 ESE TCC 35 SSE LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 SW SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SW MOB 45 SSW CBM 45 ESE MKL 20 N 5I3 10 SSE CMI 10 NNW IRK 10 W FLV 30 SSE MHK 50 WSW END 30 SE BGS 25 S P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD/NEB ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY ACROSS MANY REGIONS OF CONUS THIS EVENING. PLEASE CONSULT GRAPHIC PROBABILITY OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS WHICH AUGMENT THE SHORT DISCUSSIONS INCLUDED IN THIS PRODUCT. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND AND SWRN OH. TWO DISTINCT AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE UNDERWAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION...ONE FROM NRN IL ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI...THE OTHER OVER NCNTRL IA. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS ACROSS THE AREAS BEING AFFECTED BY ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM EXTREME SERN SD/NERN NEB ACROSS NRN IA...AND INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX ON THE WARM FRONT OVER IA COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO FROM THE MS RIVER ACROSS LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD COMPLEX TO MOVE OVER THESE AREAS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER RESIDUAL AIRMASS ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND HAZARD. LEADING BOW COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD GREATER STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM NCNTRL/NERN NEB/WRN SD SOUTH TO WRN KS AND THE TX PNHDL. STORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND CELLS OVER NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER NERN NEB COULD ALSO BE TORNADIC. STORMS FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING GIVEN WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. ETA IS FCSTG THAT NEB/SD ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO YET ANOTHER LARGE AND SEVERE MCS LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK EWD ACROSS IA...POSSIBLY SRN MN...AND BE NEAR THE MS RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...OH VALLEY TO DELMARVA... MATURE BOW COMPLEX WITH A LARGE ARC OF CONVECTION FROM SRN PA...ACROSS THE WV PNHDL...WWD TO SRN OH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. AIRMASS ACROSS PA AND MD HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON IAD RAOB BUT LEADING EDGE OF BOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS WV PNHDL INTO NRN VA COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. FARTHER WEST...TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN WV. UPSTREAM ILN RAOB SUGGESTS VERY HIGH INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SRN PART OF THE BOW AND SUPPORT A FEW MORE DAMAGING WIND REPORTS ACROSS THIS AREA. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 06:17:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 01:17:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405220618.i4M6IKe03849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220615 SWODY1 SPC AC 220612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MCK 55 ENE SNY 30 ESE AIA 45 WNW VTN 30 SE 9V9 25 ESE FSD 35 WSW RST 45 SW LSE 20 ESE ALO 30 S DSM 35 N FNB 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ART 35 SSE SLK 15 S LEB 15 W CON 15 NNW ORH 35 NNE EWR 10 W TTN 30 W ILG 30 WSW DCA 35 ENE LYH 20 SSW PSK 30 SE 5I3 20 W CRW 20 SE ZZV 35 ESE MFD 15 SW TOL 35 SE SBN 30 SSE MMO 25 NNW UIN 30 N SZL 35 SSE OJC END 40 N CSM 30 W RSL 25 WNW HLC 35 W GLD 10 NNE LIC 30 ENE DEN 20 NNE CPR 20 NNW COD 30 WSW BIL 60 ESE LWT 45 W GDV 35 NNE PHP 20 NNW 9V9 35 NW OTG 30 N RST 45 W AUW 45 NW MBL 15 S OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DAB 60 N PIE ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM 20 W MSL 50 SW BNA 25 NW BNA 30 S OWB 50 NNE PAH 45 N SGF 10 SW BVO 35 NNW ADM 10 NNE MWL 30 S BWD 45 WSW JCT 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 20 ENE MRF 15 W MAF 40 WSW CDS 40 SSE DDC 40 W RSL 30 W HLC 25 ESE LIC 50 W EGE 10 E PUC 20 SSE U24 25 E ELY 55 SE BAM 10 E WMC 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CTB 20 WSW HVR 40 S OLF 50 NE MBG 55 NE ABR 20 WNW BRD 10 WSW IWD 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 NE EPM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INCLUDING MUCH OF NEB...WRN IA...AND EXTREME SERN SD AND SRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...SRN GREAT LAKES...AND PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL U.S...SECTIONS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES. FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO PA. BELT OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE HEATED HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHILE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROVIDES RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. SERIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN COMMON ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. AS THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPED EWD...A WEAKER CAP...AND STEERING FLOW ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER MS VALLEY ANTICYCLONE HAS RESULTED IN A MORE SEWD PROPAGATION WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM ERN IA TO NRN IL/IND THROUGH EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO COMPLEX AND RESULTANT FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS EWD INTO LOWER MI THROUGH AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRONTAL WAVE...A MUCH DEEPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STARTING LATER TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS EJECTED ENEWD BY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE/WIND MAX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM NERN CO TO WRN IA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ETA APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK AND OVERLY INTENSIFY OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED DYNAMIC FORCING COUPLED WITH MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES. ...CNTRL PLAINS... EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM KS ACROSS MOST OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA. WHILE AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF KS...COMBINATION OF FORCING AND HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WILL RESULT IN RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAT ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION FOR CELLS MOVING EAST. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION EXPECTED OVER SCNTRL NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN SHOW HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING CYCLONE. EVENTUALLY...STORM MERGERS AND CONTINUED UPSCALE ORGANIZATION AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE SEVERE MCS TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...HIGH PLAINS-SERN MT/ERN WY/NEB PNHDL... UPSLOPE FLOW...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING TROUGH WILL ALL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM WRN NEB NWWD TO MT. A NUMBER OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLS AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ...EAST... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GIVEN VERY POOR PERFORMANCE OF MODELS WITH RESPECT TO UPSCALE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A PLUME OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NY FROM THE MIDWEST/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE TO FEED INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAVELING WITHIN BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. IF THIS OCCURS...THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN PA ACROSS ERN NY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. SERIES OF SMALL SCALE BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SHEAR/FLOW BUT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH MICROBURST AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS WITHIN THERMAL/LEE TROUGH AND NEAR SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...SRN GREAT LAKES... SCENARIO ACROSS THIS AREA IS SIMILAR TO FARTHER EAST ONLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM SRN WI ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE PERIOD. ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST... FARTHER WEST...STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING INTO WA/ORE AREA WILL DRIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS ID. DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET MAX ACTING ON MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A SLGT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN ID IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 12:55:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 07:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405221255.i4MCtce08742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221254 SWODY1 SPC AC 221251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MCK IML 30 ESE AIA 40 WSW VTN 60 ENE ANW 10 NNW SPW 20 SW RST 25 SSE ALO 45 WSW CID 15 NE LWD 20 SE BIE 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART 35 SSE SLK RUT EEN BDL 35 NNE EWR TTN PHL 15 NW NHK 40 ENE LYH ROA BKW PKB CMH MIE BMI UIN 30 N SZL PNC FSI CDS 30 W RSL 25 WNW HLC 35 W GLD 10 NNE LIC 30 ENE DEN 55 N DGW SHR BIL 70 WNW MLS 45 SSE GDV 55 NW PHP 20 NNW 9V9 35 NW OTG 40 N RST CWA 45 NW MBL 15 S OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB 45 ESE LUL 20 WSW MSL 50 NNE MSL 25 WNW BNA 35 N HOP 45 SW BLV 40 NNW SGF BVO 35 NNW ADM MWL 30 S BWD 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 20 ENE MRF 15 W MAF 35 WNW CDS 25 W GAG 40 WSW RSL 40 W HLC LIC ASE 20 SSE U24 ELY 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP ...CONT... 55 N FCA 20 WSW HVR 30 W GGW 20 SSW ISN 20 N BIS 50 NW ABR 25 ENE ABR 45 NE ATY 70 SSW DLH 30 WNW IMT 40 E PLN ...CONT... 30 N BML 40 SW BHB ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 35 N PIE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W-CENTRAL NEB TO E-CENTRAL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC/PIEDMONT REGION AND WRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TRANSITION UNDERWAY WITHIN BROADER WRN CONUS TROUGH. MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER SRN BC...AND WILL MAKE CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATH ACROSS PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD TO NEWD TODAY ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN -- PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DEEPEN -- COMBINED LEE-SIDE/FRONTAL-WAVE SFC CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER W-CENTRAL PORTION KS/NEB BORDER. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD OR ENEWD TOWARD SERN NEB/SWRN IA REGION BY 23/06Z...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE PRESENTLY FROM KS/NEB LOW SWWD ACROSS NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM IS FCST TO MIX EWD TODAY TOWARD 100TH MERIDIAN IN KS...SWD ALONG TX/OK BORDER THEN SWWD ACROSS W TX. ...SRN NEB/NRN KS TO MS VALLEY... AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY NOCTURNAL MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- SOME STRONG -- WOULD BE INVOF FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N-E OF SFC LOW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA...WHERE GREATEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS FCST...AND LCL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. 18Z SOUNDINGS PLANNED OVER THIS REGION TO FURTHER ASSESS DIURNAL AIR MASS EVOLUTION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION -- NOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA -- HAS SHUNTED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE SWD TO NEAR KS/NEB BORDER. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO STALL IN THAT AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN DRIFT NWD...AS FLOW TO ITS N VEERS FROM NELY TO ELY AND ESELY. THIS WILL YIELD FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS. AIR MASS NEAR BOUNDARY -- E OF SFC LOW -- WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLIE SFC DEW POINTS EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED INTO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F. ANY CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR SFC LOW AND EWD ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...AMIDST MLCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG...50 KT 500 MB FLOW AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS DESTRUCTIVE HAIL IS LIKELY FROM A FEW STORMS IN ADDITION TO AFOREMENTIONED TORNADO THREAT. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS OR TWO SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR EWD MOVEMENT OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MO AND MS VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AXIS -- N OF SFC COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEB WWD INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND NWWD OVER FOOTHILLS TOWARD SERN MT -- FOR RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED ACROSS NEB WHERE DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG -- INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT. STORM-RELATIVE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 KT ELY FLOW COMPONENT OVER REGION. ...CENTRAL KS TO NW TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN INVOF DRYLINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIABATIC HEATING AND DRYLINE LIFT BREAKING OTHERWISE STRONG CAP...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LFC SUGGESTING LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SPREAD ACROSS GREATER PORTION OF DRYLINE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN OK INDICATE MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...GRADUALLY INCREASING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. COVERAGE/DURATION OF TSTMS -- AND ACCORDINGLY...SEVERE PROBABILITIES -- SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM WRN OK INTO W TX...AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SWD AS WELL. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... EITHER OF TWO ONGOING MCS ACROSS NRN IL...SRN IA AND NRN MO MAY INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/OH...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES...PROVIDING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN INFLOW SECTOR. THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO RAISE CATEGORICAL RISK...HOWEVER ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE DERECHO EVENT IS POSSIBLE AND POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF DAMAGING WIND EVENTS COULD COMPEL UPGRADE DURING DAY. MIDAFTERNOON MLCAPES SHOULD BE IN 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE ATOP WELL MIXED...WEAKLY CAPPED...AND NEARLY 200 MB DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. ...NERN CONUS... THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS -- FROM N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OH VALLEY EWD TOWARD MID ATLANTIC AND TIDEWATER -- HAVE BEEN JUMBLED BY PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM PREVIOUS DAY. STILL...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER AREA AS RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS OR SMALL CLUSTERS...AND/OR MOVE EWD FROM OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS MORE ORGANIZED MCS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME EARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING WITH NWD EXTENT AND BUOYANCY GENERALLY INCREASING SWD. ...INTERIOR NW... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK CINH...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION DURING PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH MLCAPE 300-800 J/KG. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:13:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:13:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405222014.i4MKEDe12935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222004 SWODY1 SPC AC 222001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MCK IML 40 WSW MHN 10 S ANW 20 SE YKN 30 SSE SPW 25 NW ALO DBQ MLI LWD 20 SE BIE 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART 35 SSE SLK RUT EEN BDL 35 NNE EWR TTN HGR ZZV DAY 20 SSW HUF 10 SW BLV 10 W VIH CNU PNC 40 W SPS 55 SSE CDS 10 WSW CDS 40 SE DDC 25 W RSL 40 WSW HLC 10 SW GLD LIC 30 ENE DEN DGW SHR BIL 70 WNW MLS 45 S GDV REJ MHE MKT CWA TVC OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB 45 ESE LUL 20 WSW MSL 50 NNE MSL 25 WNW BNA 35 N HOP 45 SW BLV 40 NNW SGF 20 N TUL 40 S OKC 10 WNW MWL 35 SW BWD 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 25 E MRF MAF 40 NW CDS 30 NNW GAG 25 N DDC 50 NW GCK 25 NE COS 15 NW DRO 10 S U17 35 N P38 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 35 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CTB 35 SSE HVR 45 SSW GGW 30 ESE SDY 20 N BIS 50 NW ABR 25 ENE ABR 45 NE ATY 70 SSW DLH 30 WNW IMT 40 E PLN ...CONT... 40 W MSS 30 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO NY/PA... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/FRONT RANGE IN CO/WY AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN KS THAT IS EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING 50S DEW POINTS WWD THROUGH SRN NEB AND NWRN KS. HIGH BASED CU...WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER ECNTRL CO/NWRN KS WILL ALSO LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS AS THEY MOVE ATOP THE MOIST AXIS BETWEEN HILL CITY KS AND MCCOOK NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM SRN IA INTO SRN NEB HAS DESTABILIZED AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. INITIATION PROBABLY WILL OCCUR VCNTY DRYLINE BULDGE ALONG THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB...ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER CAP NOTED ON THE 18Z KTOP SOUNDING. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THOUGH 18Z RAOBS/PROFILERS ARE SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE. THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WILL TEND TO HAVE THE STRONGEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT IN NRN NEB AND NWRN HALF OF IA WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...BUT STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD THROUGH IA AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY BY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA. SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE SWD INTO WRN OK. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS NOT MIXED OUT AND 60S DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING GROUND AS FLOW BACKS ACROSS SWRN OK. LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO SRN KS ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE SHOULD GROW INTO ISOLD TSTMS THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH BASES WILL TEND TO BE HIGH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH 03-05Z AS DIURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE AND DRYLINE RETREATS. ...MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINEAR MCS IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER NRN IND...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER LOWER MI VCNTY WARM FRONT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND GIVEN MEAN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY PROFILE IN THE TROP...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND INTO NY/PA OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG THE FRONT /DTX VWP 0-1KM SHEAR MODIFIED FOR THUMB AREA CONDITIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS/. ...SERN STATES... NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. FLOW IS VERY WEAK THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND TSTMS ARE MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE TSTMS. SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO NC MAY FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...AS STORMS COLLAPSE...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THREATS FOR SEVERE WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN. ..RACY.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 05:59:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 00:59:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405230559.i4N5xUe02484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230557 SWODY1 SPC AC 230554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BMI 35 WNW PIA 15 WNW MLI 10 SSW DBQ 30 SSW LNR 15 NNW MSN 40 SSW MTW 35 N MKG 40 NNW LAN 15 E LAN 30 SSE JXN 20 NE FWA 30 NE LAF 30 NNW DNV 10 WNW BMI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 30 SSE EFK 25 SSW PWM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN 55 SSW GCC 20 NW WRL 30 NNW COD 40 W BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 NW MLS 20 E GDV 45 NNE Y22 25 NE MBG 55 WNW HON 25 NNE 9V9 40 SW 9V9 40 WNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 25 N ABE 35 SSW DUJ 45 SE DAY 40 NE OWB 15 W MDH 20 NW VIH 50 S P35 35 SW DSM 25 ENE FOD 25 NW RST 40 NE EAU 15 NNW IMT ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND NE ENGLAND STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...CNTRL SD AND SW ND... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES... A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS IA...RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS NEW CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEEPENING THE UPPER-TROUGH AND MOVING IT ACROSS NRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 METERS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE ETA AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND VERY HIGH WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LINE AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES EWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO WRN NY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NWRN US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 F AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -18 TO -20 C AND THIS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO SFC HEATING AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:30:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:30:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405230731.i4N7VGe06430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230729 SWODY1 SPC AC 230726 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BMI 35 WNW PIA 15 WNW MLI 10 SSW DBQ 30 SSW LNR 15 NNW MSN 40 SSW MTW 35 N MKG 45 E OSC 45 NE MTC 25 SSE DTW 20 NE FWA 30 NE LAF 30 NNW DNV 10 WNW BMI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 30 SSE EFK 25 SSW PWM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN 55 SSW GCC 20 NW WRL 30 NNW COD 40 W BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 NW MLS 20 E GDV 45 NNE Y22 25 NE MBG 55 WNW HON 25 NNE 9V9 40 SW 9V9 40 WNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 25 N ABE 35 SSW DUJ 45 SE DAY 40 NE OWB 15 W MDH 20 NW VIH 50 S P35 35 SW DSM 25 ENE FOD 25 NW RST 40 NE EAU 15 NNW IMT ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND NE ENGLAND STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...CNTRL SD AND SW ND... CORRECTED FOR SERN LOWER MI MDT RISK/PROBABILISTIC WIND MATCH AND TO INCLUDE NERN CONUS 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY LINES ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES... A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS IA...RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS NEW CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEEPENING THE UPPER-TROUGH AND MOVING IT ACROSS NRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 METERS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE ETA AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND VERY HIGH WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LINE AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES EWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO WRN NY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NWRN US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 F AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -18 TO -20 C AND THIS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO SFC HEATING AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 13:01:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 08:01:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405231302.i4ND2Ie07347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW FWA BMI PIA 20 WSW MLI DBQ LNR 35 SE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CDR GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 3HT LWT 45 SSW GGW 35 SSE SDY 45 NE Y22 MBG 9V9 55 ENE CDR 55 WNW CDR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 15 NNW EWR PSB PIT LUK EVV MDH VIH 45 S P35 DSM MCW EAU RHI 30 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM ...CONT... 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI...NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IA TO NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM MEAN WRN CONUS TROUGH. UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER ID WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS MT BY END OF PERIOD...AS SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO ITS S. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA OVER SERN MN -- WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI. PERTURBATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEB -- AND SHOULD AMPLIFY INTO CLOSED LOW TODAY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN IA/SRN WI...IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMNANTS NOW MOVING OVER ERN WI/LM/IL. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS IA/MO AND IL. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND WRN NY MAY DRIFT NWD TODAY AS WARM FRONT. ...GREAT LAKES STATES... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER IA/NRN MO REGION AND MOVE EWD...WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ALL POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WHILE ACTIVITY IS STILL IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE...BEFORE THREAT TRANSITIONS TO ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD. CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MCS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPEDE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION TODAY OVER WI/IL BORDER REGION...AND FOR MORE OF THE DAY OVER LOWER MI. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY -- AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE FORCING MOVING EWD FROM IA -- TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN IL AND NRN MO SHOULD MOVE NWD TOWARD MO/IA BORDER THROUGH TODAY -- PERHAPS INTO SRN IA...AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. LCL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING HEATING/MODIFICATION PROCESS...COMPARED TO FARTHER S ACROSS OZARKS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS WELL. PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ALOFT -- ATOP MID 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS -- WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO YIELD 3500-5000 MLCAPE...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND ACROSS REGION WHERE IA/IL/WI COME TOGETHER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELL AND ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MODES...WITH 250-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH. 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH....REACHING 50-60 KT OVER NERN IA AND SRN/CENTRAL WI. DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM RESULTANT MCS MAY EXTEND EWD AS FAR AS HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BEFORE MOVING ATOP LAYER OF COLD MARINE AIR THAT WILL BE ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED WWD FROM ATLANTIC ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ..NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW BOW ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN MT SEWD TOWARD NERN WY AND BLACK HILLS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH AFTERNOON...AS NRN ROCKIES TROUGH APCHS AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES. EXPECT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO ABOUT 80 KT BASED ON MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS -- I.E. 55-75 KT OVER SERN MT/NERN WY..INDICATE SOME DAMAGING GUSTS POTENTIAL TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 16:39:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 11:39:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405231640.i4NGeLe05918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231637 SWODY1 SPC AC 231634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW FWA DEC UIN 40 ENE OTM DBQ MSN 35 NNW MKG 65 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DGW 25 WSW GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 50 E BIL MLS REJ PHP 10 S AIA DGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB PAH SGF SZL P35 ALO LSE AUW 10 NNE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AVL LYH 35 SW RIC 10 NW RWI 45 SE CLT GSP AVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20 SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30 SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS 20 E FSI 55 WSW TUL 15 NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML 20 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG 30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS 45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY/PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED AND LESS CONFIDENT THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS. ...MI/IND/OH/PA... CURRENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER IND/IL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY 2500-3500 J/KG. SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WI/NORTHERN IL SHOULD AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM NEAR OR INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI. IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES SUFFICIENTLY... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INTENSE WIND EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OH/LOWER MI. ...IA/IL... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL IA...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. THIS IS ALSO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY TO RECOVER BEHIND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF A RATHER WEAK CAP AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER KS SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED IN THIS AREA NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IND BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING. ...VA/CAROLINAS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND SOUTHWEST VA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN VA AND CENTRAL NC IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED 4000 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE WEAK...SUGGESTING WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS VA/MD MAY RESULT IN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...POSSIBLY LESSENING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DESPITE HIGH INSTABILITY. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST MT TO THE BLACK HILLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID/NV ROTATES EASTWARD. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...SWRN MO INTO NORTH TX... SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTH TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS LIKELY CAPPED...HOWEVER 12Z/15Z RUC SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT STORMS IN THIS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE EVENT THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED AND AN ISOLATED CELL CAN BREAK CAP. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 20:09:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 15:09:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405232010.i4NKAQe06735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232003 SWODY1 SPC AC 231959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW 10 SSE FWA 40 WSW SPI 20 W UIN 30 NNW BRL 30 NNE CID MSN 45 SSW MBL 65 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE DGW 30 N WRL 45 ENE COD 55 WNW SHR 50 ENE BIL MLS 60 WSW DIK PHP 35 ENE CDR 50 NNE DGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB 15 WSW PAH 15 WNW POF 20 S JLN 20 NNW JLN 30 NE SZL 35 ESE OTM 40 E MCW 40 W AUW 40 SSE IMT 10 NNE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW AND ROA 35 SW RIC 20 NW OAJ 45 NNW CHS 30 NNW AGS 35 NNW AND. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20 SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30 SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS FSI 55 WSW TUL 15 NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML 20 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG 30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS 45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ECNTRL IA...EXTREME SERN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL...NRN IND...EXTREME NWRN OH AND CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY AND EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY TO NY AND PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND MN AND WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY ACROSS WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY SLOT WRAPPING NEWD AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AREAS FROM ERN IA AND NWRN IL WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXIST. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH BY 21Z ACROSS ERN IA...THEN MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO ALSO EXISTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY VWPS EXHIBIT LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI ALONG WARM FRONT...PERHAPS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS TRIES TO RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. 18Z DTX SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 225 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. LATER THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SOME WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 65 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN FORCING TSTMS. CINH IS MUCH STRONGER FARTHER SW AND TSTMS WILL BE FIGHTING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS FARTHER NORTHEAST...A RISK OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ECNTRL MO. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...GIVEN LEFT-OVER INFLUENCES OF RECENT MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS SRN IL. ...MIDWEST TO UPPER OH VLY... LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS HAS BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH IND THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. 18Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB AND THIS MAY BE INHIBITING STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH. BUT...GIVEN THAT THE MCS IS MOVING TOWARD SRN PERIPHERY OF 40 KT WLY FLOW...ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE DOWNSTREAM INTO OH AND PERHAPS NWRN PA LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/NRN PA... TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG OLD BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FEED NEWD FROM PA INTO BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED E-W ACROSS CNTRL NY. AS DURING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... CINH REMAINS QUITE STRONG ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN OK. GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CAP WILL BE OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...IF AN ISOLD TSTM COULD MANAGE TO INITIATE...IT COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. ...SERN STATES... NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IS HOT AND MOIST...BUT THE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. THUS...MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE AND AS THE CELLS BEGIN TO COLLAPSE...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 01:07:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 20:07:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405240108.i4O18Fe10002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240105 SWODY1 SPC AC 240102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DTW 40 ENE FWA 35 ENE LAF 40 N DNV 10 ESE MMO 15 E RFD 25 NE JVL 30 NNW MKE 40 SE MTW 65 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE AGS 35 SE AND GSP 10 ENE HKY 20 N GSO 35 N RDU 15 W RWI 25 E FAY 40 SE CAE 30 NE AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 25 ENE ALB 25 NE EWB ...CONT... BID 25 N EWR 10 SE PSB 10 ESE ZZV 30 W SDF 25 SW POF 20 N MLC 55 ESE OKC 25 ESE OKC 35 NE OKC 15 NE BVO 30 NE SZL 40 NE IRK 20 WSW DBQ 25 SE VOK 55 NW MBL 20 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDR 60 NE DGW 30 W 4BQ 20 S MLS 40 S GDV 45 WSW DIK 45 SSW DIK 40 NW PHP 45 SW PHP 30 NE CDR 20 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 SW BHB ...CONT... 20 SE JAX 30 WNW JAX 20 SSW AYS 50 NNW AYS 35 S AHN 45 NE RMG 35 SE BNA 30 NE MKL 35 N HOT 20 ESE DUA 20 ESE ABI 35 SW ABI 55 ENE BGS 65 ESE LBB 30 WSW LTS 40 ENE MKC 25 W OTM 40 E MCW 30 NE EAU 40 S CMX 50 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 15 SW FCA 45 NNW GTF 60 SE HVR 20 NNW OLF 30 E ISN 35 ESE BIS 30 W HON 50 ENE ANW 30 WNW BBW 40 ESE SNY 50 E VEL 30 WNW DPG 35 NNW WMC 60 N LMT 30 ENE EUG 30 S OLM 10 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE IL...SW WI...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NW OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SRN WI ACROSS WRN IL INTO MO AND OK. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 70 F AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS OK...MO AND IL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FUEL THE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT ILX SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SOUNDING SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN NRN IL...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND LATER THIS EVENING AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FARTHER SW ACROSS MO AND OK...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS FARTHER NW. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AFTER DARK BUT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN NY. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NY THIS EVENING. THE BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 IN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SRN LOWER MI MOVES EWD INTO WRN NY LATER TONIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SWRN SD AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES....COLD AIR ALOFT AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 06:11:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 01:11:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405240611.i4O6Bae01405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240609 SWODY1 SPC AC 240605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 25 NNW STJ 40 SSE BIE 25 ENE CNK 35 W BIE 20 NW LNK 20 NNW OMA 35 N DSM 25 NW MLI 35 ESE MLI PIA 45 WSW PIA 40 ENE IRK P35. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SZL 15 W MKC 15 NW EMP 25 NE HUT 30 ESE RSL 30 S HSI 30 SW OFK 10 NNE SUX 30 WSW MCW 50 NW DBQ 30 W JVL 35 NNE MMO 40 ENE BMI DEC 40 WSW SPI 40 N SZL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CSM 35 W CSM 40 WNW GAG 40 WNW HLC 15 NW BBW 45 W YKN 10 NNE OTG 15 WSW VOK 15 S MKG 40 NNW MFD 20 ENE PKB 25 SW SSU 25 N HKY AVL 30 SW TYS 30 E BNA 30 WNW HOP 55 NW CGI 45 NNE SGF 30 NW JLN 10 SE PNC 25 NW OKC 25 ESE CSM 20 SW CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DOV 20 ESE AVP BGM 30 NNE ROC ...CONT... 25 NNW PBG EFK 30 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 35 N BZN 50 SW BIL 15 NE SHR 20 N GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 30 E INL 45 ENE DLH 45 ESE RHI 45 NW MBL 20 NE TVC 40 E PLN ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DAB 10 SE GNV 35 NW GNV 30 E VLD 45 SE MCN 25 SSW ATL 30 SSW MSL 25 SSW MEM 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 35 WNW MAF 25 N PVW 50 SSW LBL 15 NW LBL 30 W GCK 50 ENE LAA LHX 35 SSE MTJ 45 NNE 4BL 60 E ELY 45 SSW EKO 45 NNW WMC 45 NNE 4LW 50 E SLE 15 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB...SRN IA...NW IL...FAR NRN MO AND FAR NE KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE KS...ERN NEB...IA...NRN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SE WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY TODAY... ...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING ERN NEB AND SRN IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE KC AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUNCH EWD...SPREADING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SETUP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN IA AND NRN MO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 55 TO 65 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BACKING SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN IA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES (0-3 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH EVEN A VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SHOULD OCCUR AND THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING. A SWATH OF VERY HIGH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS WRN IA/ERN NEB AND KS AS A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUNCHES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN MCS FEEDS OFF OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MOVING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG) AND 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM BY 21Z. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL SFC BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ERN NY INTO MA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...OH AND TN VALLEY... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 40 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. VEERED SFC WINDS AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 13:15:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 08:15:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405241315.i4ODFde19349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241313 SWODY1 SPC AC 241310 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW OMA 20 WNW MLI 35 N PIA 20 WSW BMI 15 SSE SPI 35 NW STL 30 E OJC 20 ENE MHK 35 SW BIE 30 WSW LNK 25 NNW OMA. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW SUX 40 NNE MLI 10 W MMO 30 ENE BMI 15 SW CMI 10 SSW ALN 40 SSE SZL 15 ESE EMP 20 E SLN 10 W CNK 25 ENE HSI 20 SW OLU 25 SSW SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MHE 30 N FOD 10 WNW DBQ 35 E RFD 40 SW SBN 30 E LAF 20 SSE HUF 40 ESE TBN 25 WSW JLN 15 SW PNC 25 SSW LTS 25 SSW CDS 65 SW GAG 55 WNW CNK 25 NW GRI 30 ESE ANW 60 SSE 9V9 20 SE MHE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE NEL 35 SW AVP 20 WNW ROC ...CONT... 25 NNE PBG 20 NNE EEN 10 W HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 30 E INL 50 W IWD 15 NW AUW 40 SW MKG 35 WSW TOL 10 WSW MFD 15 N CAK 20 NNE YNG 10 N ERI ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 20 NNE BZN 50 SW BIL 35 WNW SHR 25 WNW GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 35 WNW MAF 35 NNE PVW 55 S LBL LBL 30 W GCK 50 ENE LAA LHX 35 SSE MTJ 45 NNE 4BL 60 E ELY 45 SSW EKO 45 NNW WMC 45 NNE 4LW 50 E SLE 10 S SEA 35 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 SE JAX 35 N GNV 35 ESE VLD 35 WNW AYS 20 SSW MCN 20 NNW LGC 45 NW BHM 20 WNW UOX 20 SW LIT 25 SSE MLC 25 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 55 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA...NRN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS TO CENTRAL PORTIONS IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN NY/NERN PA TO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... ...LOWER MO TO MID MS VALLEYS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE CO...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD TO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY 18Z...AND THEN EWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A RETURN OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL-ERN KS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY NEAR 70 F FROM ICT-EMP. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER ERN CO WILL MOVE ENEWD REACHING SERN NEB BY 00Z...WITH MOIST SLY FLOW ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO RETREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS NRN MO BY EARLY EVENING. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES /AOA 8 C/KM/ SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP INCREASING SLY LLJ ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO INTO IA BY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN KS BETWEEN 18-21Z AHEAD OF THE SE CO TROUGH...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS SERN NEB AND THEN DEVELOP EAST/ESEWD ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO SWRN IA/NERN KS/NWRN MO WITH A CONTINUED ATTENDANT THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE THE LLJ TO VEER TO SWLY OVER NRN MO THIS EVENING...AND SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AROUND 00Z ACROSS SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL IA/NWRN- NORTH CENTRAL MO. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FAST MOVING BOW ECHO AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL TONIGHT. CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH ALONG THE DRY LINE SWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES. ...PORTIONS NY/NERN PA TO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND... SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD TO NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. POCKETS OF HEATING AHEAD OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WRN-CENTRAL NY SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BY 18Z WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY INTO WRN-SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 50-60 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TODAY...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO FAVOR A HAIL THREAT. ...TN VALLEY TO SRN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE-TYPE STORMS...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO NRN MN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MN WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING...THOUGH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 16:40:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 11:40:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405241641.i4OGfMe28195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241639 SWODY1 SPC AC 241635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW LNK OMA 40 NNW OTM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 20 WSW TOP 35 ENE CNK 35 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CNK 20 NNW OLU 25 NE OFK 10 NW CID 40 ENE MLI 25 S MMO 20 S DEC ALN 25 NNW EMP 20 SSE CNK 40 N CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ABR 50 W AXN 35 WSW STC 20 WNW RFD 25 SSE CGX 15 ESE LAF 30 SSW HUF 35 SW TBN 20 N JLN 40 WSW TUL SPS 45 E BGS 30 S LBB 55 N CDS 15 NNE GAG 10 S RSL 15 ESE BUB 35 NW ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW EFK 15 SE RUT 30 NE EWB ...CONT... ORF 10 NE EKN 30 NNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 35 SE JAX 30 SW GNV 20 NNW CTY 65 SSW AGS 15 NE MCN 15 SSE LGC 25 W TOI 40 SSW SEM 40 W SEM 10 SE TCL 30 E MKL 50 SE FYV 50 WNW MLC 25 NNW MWL 20 SW BWD 25 WNW JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SE ELP 10 ESE ROW 20 S CAO 10 ENE LHX 25 WNW COS 40 WNW GJT 30 W 4HV 25 NNE CDC 60 W P38 70 NNE NID 60 S BIH 55 SSE TVL 20 ESE RBL 45 SE MHS 50 SE EUG 25 SW PDX 15 NNE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 20 NNE BZN 50 SW BIL 35 WNW SHR 25 WNW GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 SSE TVF 35 SW HIB 15 NE EAU 40 NE MKE 30 SSE AZO 20 NNE DAY 10 NNW CMH ERI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST SWD INTO SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 15Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN KS TO VICINITY OF MKC AND INTO CNTRL MO. TRAILING DRYLINE STRETCHED SWD INTO WRN KS /E OF DDC/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD TO NEAR TOP BY EARLY EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WHILE DRYLINE MIXES EWD WITH BULGE DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL INTO NERN KS AT THIS TIME. WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NEB/ WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /OVER SWRN KS/ WILL EJECT NEWD INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM ERN SD SWD INTO ERN NEB. 40-50KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /PRESENT ACROSS KS/NEB/ INTO DEVELOPING TSTM COMPLEX WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS SWRN KS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F/ HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO NERN KS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY. EXPECT MLCAPES TO APPROACH 3000-4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA SWD INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS WITHIN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS POTENT COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THOSE STORMS WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED. EXPECT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MCS /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ OVERNIGHT EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD CIRCULATIONS. ...OK/TX... VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS THIS MORNING E OF DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON E OF DRYLINE FROM N-CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA IS STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z ETA GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER NRN MEXICO WHICH WILL EMERGE INTO WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROFILERS AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGEST BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM TUS TO ABQ TO AMA AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN ONTARIO INTO WRN/CNTRL PA THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TODAY WITH REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING NY/PA EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EWD TO VICINITY OF E-CNTRL NY BY 25/00Z. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN MA/SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND AXIS OF 55-65KTS AT 500MB FROM PA/NY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED BY SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. FARTHER S OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...HOWEVER FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:13:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:13:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405242014.i4OKEBe22708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242010 SWODY1 SPC AC 242007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LNK OMA DSM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 10 S TOP 35 ENE CNK 25 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SUX 40 ESE FOD 25 E CID 35 ENE MLI 25 SSW MMO DEC BLV 20 S TBN 20 SE JLN 30 WNW BVO 20 SW ICT 30 NNW SLN 30 E HSI OFK 20 ESE SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB 10 W HON 25 N ATY 30 SSW AXN MSP MSN CGX 45 W LUK 55 WSW LOZ BNA ARG HRO TUL SPS 30 NW ABI 50 NE BGS 40 ESE LBB CDS 15 NNW CSM P28 15 E RSL BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK LEB 25 ENE ISP ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF MRB PSB 35 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N GCK LAA 30 N ALS 4HV P38 TPH RBL 60 NNE MFR OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA FCA 35 NNE WEY WRL 50 WNW CDR 50 NE CDR 30 SSE PIR 35 E MBG 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 65 N DVL GFK CWA BEH DAY ZZV 25 S YNG 20 ENE ERI ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST/PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/NERN U.S.... --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 19Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NE OF RSL. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WEST OF ICT AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN OK/TX NEAR LTS/AGS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXTENDS SEWD FROM NWRN INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. EAST OF THE LOW/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN 1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/NERN KS/SWRN IA/NWRN MO. REFERENCE WW 273 AND 275. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AND SWRN MO/SERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ...OK/TX... EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASING MORE MOIST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...A DRYLINE BULGE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN END AND ICT AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP. ANY CU THAT DEVELOP AND MOVES INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. A SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BACK WWD OVERNIGHT AND SINCE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WRN NY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN OH. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR IS ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z AS ADDITIONAL HEATING RESULTS IN MORE DESTABILIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. REFERENCE WW 277. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 21:50:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 16:50:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405242150.i4OLoTe24046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242147 SWODY1 SPC AC 242144 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 242150Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LNK OMA DSM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 10 S TOP 35 ENE CNK 25 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SUX 40 ESE FOD 25 E CID 35 ENE MLI 25 SSW MMO DEC BLV 20 S TBN 20 SE JLN 30 WNW BVO 20 SW ICT 30 NNW SLN 30 E HSI OFK 20 ESE SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB 10 W HON 25 N ATY 30 SSW AXN MSP MSN CGX 45 W LUK 55 WSW LOZ BNA ARG HRO TUL SPS 30 NW ABI 50 NE BGS 40 ESE LBB CDS 15 NNW CSM P28 15 E RSL BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK 15 NNW PSM 10 SSE PVD ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF MRB PSB 35 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL GFK CWA BEH DAY ZZV 25 S YNG 20 ENE ERI ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N GCK LAA 30 N ALS 4HV P38 TPH RBL 60 NNE MFR OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA FCA 35 NNE WEY WRL 50 WNW CDR 50 NE CDR 30 SSE PIR 35 E MBG 70 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST/PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/NERN U.S.... AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK FURTHER EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 19Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NE OF RSL. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WEST OF ICT AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN OK/TX NEAR LTS/AGS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXTENDS SEWD FROM NWRN INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. EAST OF THE LOW/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN 1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/NERN KS/SWRN IA/NWRN MO. REFERENCE WW 273 AND 275. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AND SWRN MO/SERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ...OK/TX... EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASING MORE MOIST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...A DRYLINE BULGE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN END AND ICT AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP. ANY CU THAT DEVELOP AND MOVES INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. A SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BACK WWD OVERNIGHT AND SINCE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WRN NY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN OH. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR IS ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z AS ADDITIONAL HEATING RESULTS IN MORE DESTABILIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. REFERENCE WW 277. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:08:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:08:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250108.i4P18me17692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250105 SWODY1 SPC AC 250102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPI 10 SSE STL 25 E VIH 45 SSE SZL 40 S OJC 30 WSW OJC 20 NE TOP 15 ESE FNB 35 WNW LWD 10 SE DSM 30 SSW CID 30 SSE MLI 25 N SPI 30 S SPI. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 10 SW JLN 25 SW CNU 20 W EMP 30 SSE BIE 20 S OMA 35 SSW FOD 15 SW ALO 15 SSE DBQ 20 WNW MMO 10 NNE CMI 20 E SLO 20 W MDH 50 NE UNO 10 S SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 15 ENE LCI 10 SSE EWB ...CONT... 15 S NEL 15 WNW BGM 50 WSW ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HRO 35 ENE MKO 45 NNW MLC 35 WNW ADM 10 WNW SPS 20 S LTS 10 WNW LTS 25 WNW END 15 NNE HUT 15 N CNK 35 E GRI 15 NE OFK 15 WSW OTG 15 N MKT 40 SW EAU 30 NW MSN 35 NNE LAF 40 S MIE 20 ESE LUK 30 NW CRW 15 SE CRW 25 WNW BKW 15 ENE 5I3 25 SSE OWB 15 WNW PAH 30 ESE UNO HRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 15 SSE GFK 65 NNE EAU 20 W MTW 35 NW FWA 15 E DAY 10 S ZZV 10 N PIT 25 NE FKL 45 WSW BUF ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 30 S 3B1 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N DDC 40 NNW GCK 45 NW ALS 20 S U17 30 SSW P38 35 SE TPH 35 W RNO 35 ESE MHS 50 ENE EUG 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA 30 ENE 3DU 20 SE COD 35 NE DGW 40 NE CDR 25 SSW PIR 35 SE MBG 10 W BIS 40 ESE ISN 70 NW ISN. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA...WRN IL AND NRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...MO...IL...IA AND FAR SE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OZARK PLATEAU AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU/WRN OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA AND NE KS. IN ADDITION...A SQUALL-LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IA AND FAR NW MO. THIS LARGE AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA RESULTING IN TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR TOPEKA KS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4600 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND THIS WILL FEED A SEVERE MCS AS IT RACES ESEWD THIS EVENING. BACKED SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KT AND THIS COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.5 C/KM) AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE ST.LOUIS AREA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL OK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR OK CITY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS THE SUPERCELLS GRADUALLY GUST OUT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN NY...MA...NH AND VT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS ERN NJ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET OVER WRN NY. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NY AND NJ. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MA...NH AND VT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER AROUND -14C. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:19:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:19:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250119.i4P1Jre23612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250117 SWODY1 SPC AC 250113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE SZL 40 S OJC 25 WSW OJC 20 NE TOP 15 ESE FNB 30 WNW LWD 10 SE DSM 30 NE OTM 30 S MLI 25 SSW PIA 25 S SPI 10 SSE STL 25 E VIH 45 SSE SZL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 10 SW JLN 25 SW CNU 20 W EMP 30 SSE BIE 20 S OMA 35 SSW FOD 15 SW ALO 15 SSE DBQ 20 WNW MMO 10 NNE CMI 20 E SLO 20 W MDH 50 NE UNO 10 S SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S NEL 15 WNW BGM 50 WSW ART ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 15 ENE LCI 10 SSE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HRO 35 ENE MKO 45 NNW MLC 35 WNW ADM 10 WNW SPS 20 S LTS 10 WNW LTS 25 WNW END 15 NNE HUT 15 N CNK 35 E GRI 15 NE OFK 15 WSW OTG 15 N MKT 40 SW EAU 30 NW MSN 35 NNE LAF 40 S MIE 20 ESE LUK 30 NW CRW 15 SE CRW 25 WNW BKW 15 ENE 5I3 25 SSE OWB 15 WNW PAH 30 ESE UNO HRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW 3B1 30 S 3B1 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N DDC 40 NNW GCK 45 NW ALS 20 S U17 30 SSW P38 35 SE TPH 35 W RNO 35 ESE MHS 50 ENE EUG 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA 30 ENE 3DU 20 SE COD 35 NE DGW 40 NE CDR 25 SSW PIR 35 SE MBG 10 W BIS 40 ESE ISN 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 65 N DVL 15 SSE GFK 65 NNE EAU 20 W MTW 35 NW FWA 15 E DAY 10 S ZZV 10 N PIT 25 NE FKL 45 WSW BUF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA...WRN IL AND NRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...MO...IL...IA AND FAR SE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OZARK PLATEAU AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... CORRECTED FOR SIG AREA ON HAIL GRAPHIC ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU/WRN OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA AND NE KS. IN ADDITION...A SQUALL-LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IA AND FAR NW MO. THIS LARGE AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA RESULTING IN TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR TOPEKA KS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4600 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND THIS WILL FEED A SEVERE MCS AS IT RACES ESEWD THIS EVENING. BACKED SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KT AND THIS COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.5 C/KM) AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE ST.LOUIS AREA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL OK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR OK CITY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS THE SUPERCELLS GRADUALLY GUST OUT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN NY...MA...NH AND VT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS ERN NJ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET OVER WRN NY. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NY AND NJ. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MA...NH AND VT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER AROUND -14C. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 06:03:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 01:03:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250604.i4P64Ie08011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250602 SWODY1 SPC AC 250559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ART 20 NNE UCA ALB 10 S GON ...CONT... 20 N HSE 30 E EWN 10 ESE FAY 30 ENE SPA 25 SW TYS 35 ENE JBR 10 SW MLC 10 NE SPS 35 S CDS 45 NE PVW 35 E AMA 45 WNW GAG 15 NNE FLV 30 WNW BEH 70 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 35 SSE VLD 10 S MGR 15 SSW CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 25 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 25 SSE HOB 30 NE HOB 30 SE CVS 55 SSE RTN 40 ENE DRO 10 SSE U17 45 NNE BFL 40 S FAT 35 W FAT 20 SE SCK 40 WNW TVL 30 NNW LOL 45 WSW TWF 35 SW SUN 65 SW 27U 40 NW DLN 40 ESE HLN 35 WNW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 20 S 4BQ 35 SE RAP 25 NE MHN 35 WNW EAR HSI 10 E LNK 15 WSW DSM 25 SSW LNR 40 E VOK 15 NW AUW 35 E DLH 25 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 N ART 30 S SLK 25 WNW EEN EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/ERN GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS... A SEVERE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY DAYBREAK. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALL THE WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY. IF THE BOW CAN HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SRN PA...WV...VA...MD...SRN NJ AND DE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM CNTRL IL TO SRN OH AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE PRESENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BUT EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WHICH MAY LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 40 KT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REACH 8.0 C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST OF THE CAPE ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK CITY SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL MAINLY ACROSS NRN OK...SERN KS AND SRN MO. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 06:12:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 01:12:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250613.i4P6DJe12551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250610 SWODY1 SPC AC 250606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ART 20 NNE UCA ALB 10 S GON ...CONT... 20 N HSE 30 E EWN 10 ESE FAY 30 ENE SPA 25 SW TYS 35 ENE JBR 10 SW MLC 10 NE SPS 35 S CDS 45 NE PVW 35 E AMA 45 WNW GAG 15 NNE FLV 30 WNW BEH 70 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 35 SSE VLD 10 S MGR 15 SSW CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 25 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 25 SSE HOB 30 NE HOB 30 SE CVS 55 SSE RTN 40 ENE DRO 10 SSE U17 45 NNE BFL 40 S FAT 35 W FAT 20 SE SCK 40 WNW TVL 30 NNW LOL 45 WSW TWF 35 SW SUN 65 SW 27U 40 NW DLN 40 ESE HLN 35 WNW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 20 S 4BQ 35 SE RAP 25 NE MHN 35 WNW EAR HSI 10 E LNK 15 WSW DSM 25 SSW LNR 40 E VOK 15 NW AUW 35 E DLH 25 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 N ART 30 S SLK 25 WNW EEN EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/ERN GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS... A SEVERE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY DAYBREAK. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALL THE WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY. IF THE BOW CAN HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SRN PA...WV...VA...MD...SRN NJ AND DE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM CNTRL IL TO SRN OH AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE PRESENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BUT EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WHICH MAY LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 40 KT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REACH 8.0 C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST OF THE CAPE ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK CITY SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL MAINLY ACROSS NRN OK...SERN KS AND SRN MO. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 13:07:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 08:07:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405251308.i4PD8Ce31410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251306 SWODY1 SPC AC 251303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ILM 15 SSE CLT 25 W DYR 40 ENE MLC 50 SW SPS 55 ESE LBB 25 ENE PVW 50 SSE DDC FLV 25 N UIN 35 NNE LAF 25 NE PSB 25 SSW ABE 25 ESE ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 20 NW INK 55 S CVS 55 ENE LVS 45 NE DRO 20 E SGU 35 NNE BFL MER 30 NE SAC 45 SW TWF 30 NNW SUN 50 WNW 27U 20 NE MSO 35 N HVR ...CONT... 55 N MOT 15 ESE P24 15 W DIK 40 NNE 4BQ 20 SE 4BQ 35 SSW PHP 25 SW ANW 20 SW EAR 45 W BIE 35 W OTM 35 ESE MLI CGX 35 ENE MTW 20 WSW ANJ ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 15 WSW EWB ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 40 SSW VLD CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 15 ESE MWL 35 NNW JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... BAND OF 50-60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS GENERALLY ORIENTED FROM OFF THE CA COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AT 11Z AND WEAKER FEATURE/ MCV ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WILL BOTH MOVE NEWD TO ERN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN TX ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO SRN MO AND CENTRAL IND/OH BY 00Z. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NERN OK TO IL/IND HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT MCS WITH ONE OR TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LYING ACROSS THIS SAME REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN OH EWD ACROSS NRN VA AREA SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO SRN PA AND DE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN PLAINS ENEWD TO MID MS/OH VALLEYS... AIR MASS ALONG/S OF COLD FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MIDWEST MCS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXTENSIVE BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM AND LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY AND INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR MASS COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG/S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/ SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND MORE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NRN OK/SRN KS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS TO WRN KY WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. ...PA/DE SWD TO NC... A SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR/ DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS SRN PA IN ADVANCE OF EWD MOVING MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...NWD RETURN OF WARM FRONT INTO NJ WILL BE HINDERED TODAY BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER NJ WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ONLY MOVING INTO DE. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6 KM FROM 35-40 KT/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS PA/NRN VA TO DELMARVA SUPPORTING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE INDICATED BY THE 06Z ETA TO MOVE ACROSS MD/DE THIS AFTERNOON MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN VA INTO NC...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KT/ ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE MULTI-CELLULAR WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 15:55:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 10:55:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405251555.i4PFtXO22087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251553 SWODY1 SPC AC 251549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM CLT CHA 35 NW LIT PGO DUA ABI P07 MRF HOB PVW P28 CNU STL IND FDY 40 NW YNG BFD PHL 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW MCN 30 SW ANB 35 SW CBM 10 SE GGG 45 ENE JCT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 10 ENE CNM 15 N CVS 30 SSW CAO 20 NE ALS 45 N CEZ 15 E SGU 50 N DAG 25 N EDW 50 SE FAT 20 NNE MER 45 NNE SAC 45 WSW SVE 15 W SVE 40 E SVE RNO 40 ENE TVL 30 ESE NFL 20 SSE WMC 55 NW OWY 70 SSE S80 35 N 3DU 65 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 45 SE MOT 70 WSW DIK 65 NE DGW 45 E SNY 40 WSW RSL 20 NNE HUT 25 N EMP 30 ENE STJ 20 NE PIA 20 ESE MKG 20 ENE PLN ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 15 SW EWB ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO MID ATLANTIC... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN IND/WESTERN KY. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-ORGANIZE TODAY AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH A MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WESTERN PA IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PA/VA/NC BEFORE WEAKENING. ...NORTH TX/OK/AR... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS WEST TX AND MUCH OF OK. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BENEATH THESE CLOUDS...BUT IT APPEARS A SOUTHERN EDGE TO THICKER CIRRUS WILL DEVELOP FROM CDS-OKC-FSM. SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EXIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ...WEST TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR CDS TO EAST OF MAF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. DEEP MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CO... LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PLAINS OF EASTERN CO. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM IN THIS REGION TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..HART/BANACOS.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 20:09:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 15:09:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405252009.i4PK9rO16655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252004 SWODY1 SPC AC 252000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SDF 35 WSW LUK 25 W HTS 30 S HTS 10 SSW JKL 40 NNE BWG 25 S OWB 40 WSW OWB 30 WSW EVV 10 NNW OWB 25 WSW SDF 15 N SDF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM CLT CHA 35 NW LIT PGO DUA ABI P07 MRF HOB PVW P28 CNU STL IND FDY 40 NW YNG BFD PHL 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 45 SE MOT 70 WSW DIK 65 NE DGW 45 E SNY 40 WSW RSL 20 NNE HUT 25 N EMP 30 ENE STJ 20 NE PIA HTL 15 E APN ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 15 SW EWB ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 N PIE ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW MCN LGC TCL GGG 45 ENE JCT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 SW ROW 55 N ROW 30 SSW CAO 20 NE ALS 45 N CEZ 15 E SGU 50 N DAG 25 N EDW 50 SE FAT 20 NNE MER 45 NNE SAC 45 WSW SVE 15 W SVE 40 E SVE RNO 40 ENE TVL 30 ESE NFL 20 SSE WMC 55 NW OWY 70 SSE S80 35 N 3DU 65 ENE CTB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AREA. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET...EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS NEAR WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. LIFTED PARCELS... ORIGINATING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...APPEAR TO POSSESS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. MERGER OF JET STREAK IN BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...AND LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK TOPPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM PATTERN...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...FROM CINCINNATI TO PADUCAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SURFACE POOL DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS...RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS POTENTIAL...AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING... AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DRY LINE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING /NEAR OR AFTER 26/03Z/. MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR MORE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME SOUTH OF INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INHIBITION. TENDENCY LIKELY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ON COOL/NORTH SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT...WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA/ NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..KERR.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 05:57:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 00:57:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405260557.i4Q5veO02579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ORF 15 ENE RWI 35 W SOP 20 W AND 25 NNE GAD 20 ENE TUP 15 SW LIT 40 S MLC 10 NW DUA 40 SSE SPS 40 NW SJT 40 ENE FST 35 NNE FST 20 E INK 50 SSW LBB 25 E GAG 20 NE ICT 45 SW OJC 10 WNW JEF 20 N EVV 30 SSW LUK 25 N UNI 15 SSW DUJ 30 SW ELM 15 NW UCA 50 NE UCA 25 NW GFL 10 W PSF 10 ESE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 35 SW CBM 25 W SHV 35 NW AUS 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PLN 35 W MBL 10 NE MKE 35 S CGX 25 W MIE 30 NNE DAY 25 W CAK 30 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 50 N HOB 30 S AMA 45 NE AMA LBL 25 N GCK 20 SSW ABR 30 SSW BIS 25 NNW 4BQ 50 W RKS 40 NNE ENV 75 NNW WMC 50 NNW LMT 25 ESE SLE 70 WNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE W AND NW TX...THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH AND TN VALLEYS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...NEW ENGLAND STATES...... ...OH AND TN VALLEY... A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED EAST TO WEST ALONG THE OH RIVER AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN MO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND STRONG CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS KY AND TN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EARLY. HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS (-10C AT 500 MB) WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS KY AND VA...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...W AND NW TX/SW OK... A DRYLINE SHOULD BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY ACROSS W TX WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN OK. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F ALONG THE CAP ROCK. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION BUT STRONG SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR W TX SHOW INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM ABOUT 45 KT AT MIDDAY TO 55 TO 60 KT BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DROPS OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. ...NY/PA/NJ/DE/MD... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN NY. AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EWD INTO ERN NY TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SEWD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM MD TO NH. A STRONG VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN OH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO A MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS...A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 13:05:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 08:05:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405261306.i4QD64O27626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261304 SWODY1 SPC AC 261301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 45 S CLT 50 WNW AND 30 NE UOX 15 NE HOT DUA 40 SSE SPS 40 NW SJT 40 ENE FST 35 NNE FST 20 E INK 50 SSW LBB 35 SE GAG 35 SW EMP 35 SW OJC 45 S MTO 20 SSW DAY 15 ESE CAK 15 NNW BFD 30 S ART 25 NW GFL 20 E ALB POU 25 NW EWR 15 S NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CHS 25 SW GAD 35 NNW ELD 35 NW AUS 65 W COT ...CONT... 75 WNW MRF 50 N HOB 30 S AMA 45 NE AMA LBL 25 N GCK 20 SSW ABR 30 SSW BIS 25 NNW 4BQ 50 W RKS 40 NNE ENV 55 NW SVE 50 ESE CEC 55 SE OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 ENE PLN 25 S MTW 25 ENE CGX 40 SSE SBN 30 ENE FWA 40 SE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN TX INTO OK...AND EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES NWD TO PA/NY... ...SYNOPSIS... NERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW TODAY ALLOWING DOWNSTREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA TO MOVE ESEWD TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/NRN BAJA. STRONG ZONAL FLOW /50-70 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TO MIDDLE AND NRN ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND ELEVATED STORMS FROM ERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SRN MN/NRN IA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN MO TO THE MID OH VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT MOVES SEWD ACROSS NY/PA AS A COLD FRONT REACHING NWRN VT TO SWRN PA BY 00Z. MEANWHILE...THE WRN EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD TODAY INTO NRN OK...AS A DRY LINE MIXES EWD INTO CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK AND NWRN TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ...NY/VT SWD TO PA/NJ/MD/DE/NRN VA... UPPER TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKER LOWER MO VALLEY SHORT WAVE THROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL APPROACH NERN STATES BY 00Z WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING OVER THIS REGION AT THAT TIME. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NY/PA/MD IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO A MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SRN NY/PA INTO NRN VA TO THE DELMARVA AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SRN VA/NC... WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY SUPPORTING STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LEE TROUGH...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. ...SRN PLAINS TO TN/OH VALLEYS... EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. NONETHELESS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SHOULD AID TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK...WHILE SRN PORTION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER OK SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ...NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS SRN MN... NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NEB TO SRN MN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S REACHING SRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CAPE BEARING SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE. THUS...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SRN MN FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 16:39:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 11:39:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405261639.i4QGdjO14974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261636 SWODY1 SPC AC 261633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW STC 20 ENE FRM 20 ENE SUX 15 NNE OFK 50 W YKN 25 NE HON 60 SW FAR 15 N FAR 25 NW BRD 15 SW STC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRE 45 SSW CLT 20 NE HOT 40 NNW MWL 35 NW SJT 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 45 E AMA 40 NNE ICT MKC 20 SW MTO 30 SW DAY 30 SSE CAK 30 NNE SYR 15 NNW GFL 30 WNW EEN 35 SW POU 20 W TTN 20 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 40 NW ABQ 25 NW LVS TCC 10 W AMA 35 WSW GAG 25 N BBW 15 ESE ABR 45 SE JMS 10 SE BIS 30 SW MLS 30 NW MLD 30 S WMC 30 NNE RBL 25 ENE 4BK 30 ESE OTH 50 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN 35 ENE MLI 35 NW LAF 20 SSE FWA 50 NNW MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 40 N MCN 10 E GWO 35 NNW GGG 50 ENE JCT 40 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...MO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY /REF SWOMCD 909/. ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL BE ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN TAPPING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY 17Z SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SWRN MO/SRN IL ENEWD INTO SERN OH. PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD KY AND POSSIBLY TN...THOUGH WRN EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING RAOBS AT LIT AND OKC. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE... ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM ERN KS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. AS HEATING PERSISTS...CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ALONG THE FRONT AND COULD SUPPORT INCREASED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION...GIVEN 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION REMAINS ON NERN EXTEND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER SRN PA AND THE CHESAPEAKE REGION/ERN NC AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NOW ENTRENCHED OVER ERN NY AND ERN PA. ...SRN PLAINS... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL BE RATHER STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN OK TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OVERCOME CAPPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE AXIS. VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE POSSIBLY JUST BEFORE 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER INTO OK ALONG PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONT AS HEATING WILL BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL INTO THE 90S OVER WRN TX... SUGGESTING PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO ERN SD TODAY...AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM NOW OVER ERN MT. SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT SHIFTS INTO ERN SD LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING. ERN EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SEVERE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 20:00:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 15:00:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405262000.i4QK0VO00401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261958 SWODY1 SPC AC 261955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 10 SW STC 10 NNW OTG FSD 10 NW MHE ABR 55 SW FAR 10 WSW GFK 10 SE BJI BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ILM SPA MKL 15 SSE FYV 10 SSW SPS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 10 NE PVW 40 N CSM ICT EMP 40 NNE SZL BLV BMG UNI PIT DUJ UCA GFL PSF POU ABE TTN 15 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 65 ESE SOW 10 N GNT RTN LBL HUT SLN HLC GLD 10 SSE SNY AIA 10 SE PIR MBG JMS 10 WNW DVL 55 NNE MOT ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN JVL BEH 20 SSE TOL 50 NNW MFD ...CONT... 30 ENE CHS ATL MSL LIT PRX 40 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF MLS IDA 30 NNW TWF BNO MFR EUG YKM 4OM 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WESTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...OZARKS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... INTENSE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION. MODELS SUGGEST RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...AND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EVOLUTION OF ONGOING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST SURFACE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH 50+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT EXTENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AREA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION HAS HAMPERED HEATING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION BELOW THE ANVIL IS STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THUS...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS/REDEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AFTER 27/00Z. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 90F...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL/STABILIZE THIS EVENING. WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM...BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST NEAR LOW/ MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING UPSTREAM OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT. WARMING MID-LEVELS...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE WESTERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COLORADO VALLEY...BUT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONFINE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE DRY LINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG NEAR DRY LINE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... AIR MASS ALONG EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOST UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AIDED BY APPROACH OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. FOR MORE DETAIL ON ALL ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:08:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:08:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405270108.i4R18bO01456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270106 SWODY1 SPC AC 270102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DLH 45 NE MSP 30 SSE RWF FSD 20 E HON 35 ESE ABR 55 SW FAR 15 ENE FAR 10 SE BJI 20 SW DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 10 NE PVW 40 N CSM ICT 20 ENE TOP 45 SSW IRK 20 W DEC 25 SSE IND UNI PIT DUJ UCA GFL PSF POU ABE TTN 15 SSE NEL ...CONT... 10 WNW ILM SPA MKL 30 SE FYV 45 N MWL 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS ATL MSL LIT PRX 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN 65 ESE SOW 10 N GNT RTN LBL HUT SLN HLC GLD 10 SSE SNY AIA 10 SE PIR MBG JMS 10 WNW DVL 55 NNE MOT ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN JVL BEH 20 SSE TOL 50 NNW MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF MLS IDA 30 NNW TWF BNO MFR EUG YKM 4OM 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... WNWLY/WLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO... THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SWRN AZ/NRN BAY OF CA MOVING EWD INTO NWRN MEXICO. FLOW FROM THIS FEATURE EXTENDS NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY AS FLATTENED RIDGE EXTENDS E-W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS ERN NY STATE INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ...THEN WWD INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE DRAPED OVER MO AND KS. ALSO...PRONOUNCED DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WRN KS SWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND NWRN TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX. ...VA SWWD ACROSS NC INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EWD FROM E CENTRAL VA INTO NWRN NC WWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES TO 4000 J/KG. RAOB DATA FROM GSO SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH 30-55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY... CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL INTO SWRN IN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN OH/N CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. ACTIVITY IS ALSO WORKING JUST NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS ENHANCED 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 350-450 M2/S2 FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS AREA IS FORECAST BY THE 21Z RUC TO CONTINUE INTO SRN INDIANA NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. ...SRN PLAINS INTO W TX... STORMS FORMED AGAIN ON THE SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME WRN OK SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WERE OVER N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK WITH FAIRLY HIGH LCLS WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8C/KM. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35-40 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE FEW HOURS AS TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE. ACTIVITY OVER N CENTRAL OK MAY CONTINUE INTO SWRN MO AS THEY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN KS. ...ERN NRN PLAINS INTO MN... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER ERN ND SWWD INTO N CENTRAL NE..THEN NWWD INTO S CENTRAL MT. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT UNDERNEATH STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 05:35:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 00:35:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405270535.i4R5ZOO07049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270533 SWODY1 SPC AC 270529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE JBR 45 N LIT 55 E FSM 45 WNW FYV 35 ENE CNU 30 WSW SZL 10 NNW COU 40 SSW DEC 45 NNW EVV 30 SW EVV 40 N DYR 30 NE JBR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MEM 45 NNW TXK 10 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT 40 ESE P07 30 SW P07 10 S FST 20 W BGS 50 SSW LTS 20 WSW OKC 40 NNE PNC 10 E MKC 20 N UIN 40 ESE MMO 40 ENE MIE 40 WNW HTS 25 E JKL 35 NNW CSV 50 E MKL 10 NNW MEM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S BNO 45 WNW BNO 50 WSW PDT 40 N ALW 20 E PUW 65 NW 27U 20 N SUN 35 NE OWY 80 N WMC 70 S BNO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 50 WNW 3HT 45 WNW CPR 35 N DGW 30 NE 81V 70 NNW GGW ...CONT... 55 N MOT 50 S JMS 20 SE BKX YKN 45 WSW IML 30 WSW COS 30 ENE SLC 55 WNW ELY 45 WNW TPH 65 ESE FAT 30 ESE FAT 15 SSE MHS 25 WSW MFR 20 NNW PDX 50 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 35 SSE AHN 30 SW UOX 10 NNE GGG 25 W AUS 15 S LRD ...CONT... 20 WSW FHU 30 SW SOW DHT 35 W P28 50 ESE OMA 25 WNW LSE 30 N IWD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN MO...EXTREME NRN AR AND SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OR AND SERN WA INTO WRN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER AZ MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DEPICT QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NC WWD INTO SRN MO DURING THE EARLY PERIODS...BUT THE ETA MODEL LOSES THIS FEATURE BY 28/00Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WOULD ESTIMATE THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... COMPLEX SITUATION WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEFINE THE BOUNDARIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL THEN EXTEND SEWD ACROSS SWRN OH INTO CENTRAL NC. MODELS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE -8 TO -10 ACROSS PARTS OF MO /CAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG/. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 110-120 KT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM W CENTRAL OK ENEWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO THEN EWD OVER NERN NC. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER ERN OK INTO SWRN MO...THEN SHIFT EWD AND EXTEND FROM NERN AR INTO SERN OH BY 28/00Z. THUS...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...NWRN KY AND POSSIBLY SWRN OH WILL BE IN AN AREA WHERE BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 80 AND 110 M2/S2 WITH CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. THIS AREA LOOKS THE BEST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGH AND WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 9000 FT AGL. ...PARTS OF OR...WA AND ID... HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-110 KT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN CA INTO SW AND W CENTRAL ID AFTER THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60-70 KT PULLING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -26C. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 18Z ENHANCING UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN SOME FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EXTREME ERN OR...AND W CENTRAL ID...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH UPPER JET EXIT REGION. AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE NEAR/AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT. BUT FEEL THAT STORMS MAY NOT BE ORGANIZED AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 13:15:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 08:15:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405271315.i4RDFUO14512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271313 SWODY1 SPC AC 271309 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE FSM 50 SSW JLN 40 SSW SZL COU 50 WNW STL 10 NW BLV 10 W MDH 30 SSE CGI 20 ESE JBR 40 ESE FSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S BNO 45 WNW BNO 35 WNW PDT 40 N ALW 50 NNE S80 MQM 10 ENE PIH TWF 80 W OWY 70 S BNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07 25 N FST 30 SW LBB 30 SW CDS 20 WNW FSI 45 SSE PNC 15 SSW CNU OJC 20 ENE UIN 20 SE CGX 15 NW LAN 60 N MTC ...CONT... ERI 35 SSW EKN 25 SSW LYH 25 SW TYS 40 SSW MKL 45 N TXK FTW 15 W BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 50 WNW 3HT 45 WNW CPR 35 N DGW 30 NE 81V 70 NNW GGW ...CONT... 55 N MOT 50 S JMS 20 SE BKX YKN 45 WSW IML 30 WSW COS 30 ENE SLC 55 WNW ELY 45 S U31 65 NNW BIH 50 S TVL 15 SSE MHS 25 WSW MFR 55 W YKM 50 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CHS 15 ENE CAE 30 N GWO 35 SSE GGG 50 ESE SAT 15 S LRD ...CONT... DUG 20 ESE SOW DHT 35 W P28 50 ESE OMA 25 WNW LSE 30 N IWD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MO AND NRN AR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE/FAR SERN WA INTO CENTRAL/SRN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. TODAY...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN AZ ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRACK EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX BY 12Z FRIDAY. BAND OF STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL-SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF IL/IND/OH INTO PA WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS OH/SRN LOWER MI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO SRN MO AND NERN OK BY 00Z...WHILE A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM CENTRAL OK TO AROUND SPS AND THEN SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR ICT...IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN MO REACHING ERN MO/SRN IL AREA BY 00Z. ...ERN OK/MO/AR TO OH/TN VALLEYS... SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR AND SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MO WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-3500 J/KG OVER THESE STATES. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NEWD TODAY AND MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM IND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND OH/WV. 60+ KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS IND INTO OH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IND AND CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SRN MO AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO...WITH MAINLY A HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEWD INTO IND/LOWER MI ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL MOVE INTO OH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MO/IL WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD INTO NRN AR/SRN IND TO KY/TN THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS A WSWLY 45-50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NERN AR INTO KY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY. ...WRN/NRN TX INTO SRN OK... ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX ARE AN INDICATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN AZ UPPER TROUGH. FURTHER INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WRN TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WRN TX OVERNIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK INTO WRN AR. ...ERN ORE/SERN WA/CENTRAL-SRN ID... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 16:33:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 11:33:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405271633.i4RGXMQ28322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271631 SWODY1 SPC AC 271627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HRO UMN 40 SSW SZL UIN 10 NE SPI 15 WNW MTO 40 S MTO 15 NE PAH 15 ESE JBR 35 SSW HRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S BNO 45 WNW BNO 35 WNW PDT 40 N ALW 50 NNE S80 MQM 10 ENE PIH TWF 80 W OWY 70 S BNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 30 NNW RIC 25 NE ROA 30 ENE TYS 25 ESE MKL 10 SE LIT 10 NNW DAL 35 NNE JCT DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 30 SSW INK 35 SE HOB 30 WSW CDS 30 E END 45 W CNU 30 S FNB 30 W LWD 35 NE OTM 25 N MMO 15 NW LAN 60 N MTC ...CONT... 45 N BUF 10 SE PSB 30 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 40 N AGS 25 WSW GLH 20 NW LFK 45 S AUS 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 WNW BOS 10 ENE GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 35 S JMS 25 SSE SPW 30 SW DSM CID 20 NNW LSE 45 ENE EAU ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 65 ESE SOW 10 ESE GNT 50 SW CAO 30 SSE LBL 20 ESE P28 30 E CNK 15 SSE GRI 25 N BBW 40 NNW MHN 20 WSW CDR 55 W CDR 40 ENE CYS 20 ENE LIC 10 E PUB 15 NE MTJ 45 W PUC 45 E TVL 50 SSW TVL 45 E UKI 50 ESE EKA 35 WSW MFR 55 NNE PDX 30 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MO...CENTRAL/SRN IL AND FAR NRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/DELMARVA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...OZARKS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY... SEVERAL SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD WILL REMAIN ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING...WITH MODEST HEATING LIKELY SUPPORTING A LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL/SRN IND THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM...EXPECT CAP TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SERN IA/NRN IL AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 20Z. FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...EARLY CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLEARING WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SPREAD ACROSS IND/SERN LOWER MI. STRENGTH OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWRN EXTENT OF HIGHER END THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY STRENGTHENING CAP INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MDT RISK AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR BY LATER THIS EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS... PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ETA IS PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING A 70-80 KT H5 SPEED MAX ACROSS SWRN TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SWRN TX WITH SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SWRN TX AND SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING INTO NWRN TX. SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEARER THE MID LEVEL JET OVER SWRN TX. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK... HOWEVER CAPPING MAY BE MORE INHIBITIVE INTO N-CENTRAL TX AND OK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CHESAPEAKE... AREA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AREA OF MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK CAP. THEREFORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED...STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN ORE/ID... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AND INCREASE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL IN THE 50S. THOUGH CLOUDS NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WILL OVERSPREAD ERN ORE AND WRN ID...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION AND SUPPORT AND INCREASED THREAT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...PENDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:05:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:05:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405280106.i4S16AQ16524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280103 SWODY1 SPC AC 280100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PAH 55 N POF 15 S STL 10 E SLO 40 SE BMG 50 W EKN 15 ENE BKW 25 ENE 5I3 55 W LOZ 20 ENE PAH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DRT 40 NE JCT 20 W FTW 30 SSE MLC 20 NW FSM 20 SSE JLN 40 S OJC 15 ESE MKC 20 NW COU 35 WSW MTO 35 E IND 40 N DAY 25 WNW CLE ...CONT... 20 NNW SYR 15 SW MSV 10 S ACY ...CONT... 35 N HSE 10 NW RWI 15 NE HKY 25 NNW CHA 45 NNE UOX 35 SW PBF 20 S TYR 35 NNE SAT 60 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 WNW BOS 10 ENE GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE P07 40 NNW SJT 70 NW ABI 45 N CDS 30 NNE GAG 20 ENE P28 40 E ICT 30 WSW TOP 20 WNW STJ 20 W P35 15 NNE UIN 20 WNW CMI 20 ENE LAF 15 NE FWA 20 E DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 25 SSW JMS 10 SSW ATY 40 W SPW 35 NW OMA 30 SW OLU BBW 60 E CDR 35 E 81V 30 SE SHR 10 SSE WRL 35 E BPI 55 N PUC 20 N U24 40 NW ELY 25 NNE U31 40 SSW NFL 40 ENE SCK 45 SE UKI 55 W RBL 35 SW MFR 35 SW YKM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 30 SSE AHN 40 SSE GLH 10 ENE LFK 45 S AUS 25 S LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN OH VALLEY INTO WV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SWRN TX INTO UPSTATE NY... ...OH VALLEY... E-W ORIENTED MCS IS EVOLVING FROM ECNTRL MO...ACROSS SRN IL INTO SRN OH AND WV. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD INTO VEERED LLJ THAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS COMPLEX MCS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND VEERED...BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WITH TIME...SW-NE ORIENTED BOW SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEVELOPING COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BOW ECHOES TO BECOME MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ...NERN TX TO AR... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING NEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS WEST TX WHICH WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EWD TONIGHT. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN TX INTO AR BY LATE EVENING. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE MATURING MCS APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT MODE...WITH MORE DISCRETE BUT SLOWLY DECREASING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER NCNTRL TX. INCREASING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 05:39:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 00:39:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405280539.i4S5dEQ26317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280537 SWODY1 SPC AC 280534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MCN 15 WNW SEM 30 NE MCB 15 ESE ESF 15 W MLU 15 WSW GWO 10 SSE MSL 20 SE CSV 30 S BLF 25 ENE DAN 20 SW GSB 15 SW FLO 40 NNW MCN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE DVL 45 NE FAR 10 WSW STC 35 NNE MCW 40 NW DSM 35 ENE OLU 40 WSW 9V9 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 30 SSW CLL 30 ENE ACT 45 SSE DUA 25 ENE MLC 45 WNW FYV 10 NW SGF 40 SE VIH 35 ESE MVN 30 WSW LUK 30 E ZZV 10 NNW BGM 30 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 15 NE MAI 15 SW MOB 30 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW DLH 30 WSW CWA 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 25 NNW STJ 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 40 SSW IML 35 S LIC 45 SSE GUC 30 SSE 4BL 15 SE LAS 60 N NID 45 NNE FAT 35 NW TVL 30 NE 4LW RDM 25 E OLM 30 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA TO NC... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE...ASCENT AHEAD OF ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...OR WELL NORTH OF ANY APPRECIABLE REGION OF INSTABILITY. ...NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ INCREASES MARKEDLY AFTER DARK FROM NEB INTO SERN SD. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING MAY AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN NEB...HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z NORTHEAST OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND VEERING PROFILES WILL FAVOR STORM ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AFTER DARK. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO WRN GULF COAST REGION... COMPLEX MCS STRUCTURE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WWD INTO WRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRAPE WSWWD ACROSS THE SRN TN VALLEY REGION INTO THE WRN GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ROBUST CHARACTERISTICS. CURRENT THINKING IS REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY REGENERATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN REASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF REGION. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 12:56:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 07:56:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405281256.i4SCuiQ29668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281254 SWODY1 SPC AC 281251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE DVL 45 NE FAR 20 S STC 35 N MCW 40 SW FOD 20 W OMA 25 WSW OLU 30 NNE VTN 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 SSE AHN 45 SSW ANB 30 W JAN 35 N HEZ 10 NNW MLU 40 N MLU 35 SE PBF 15 SW MEM 25 NNW MEM 20 E JBR 30 SSE POF 15 ENE POF 20 N HOP 50 NNW CSV 35 N TYS 15 W TRI 35 NW HKY 15 S HKY 10 SW CLT 35 WSW SOP 25 ENE FAY 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 35 S LIC 35 W GJT 35 SW BCE 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 ENE MER 35 NE SAC 20 WNW SVE 30 NNE 4LW 45 NNE RDM 10 WSW YKM 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... DRT 20 SSE BGS 55 NNW CDS 30 NW END 35 ESE MVN 10 NW DAY 20 NW ELM 10 NE MSS ...CONT... 20 SSW SAV 45 NNE DHN 20 NE LCH 10 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN. ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH... COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN... THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 13:09:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 08:09:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405281309.i4SD9ZQ04875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281307 SWODY1 SPC AC 281304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE DVL 45 NE FAR 20 S STC 35 N MCW 40 SW FOD 20 W OMA 25 WSW OLU 30 NNE VTN 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 SSE AHN 45 SSW ANB 30 W JAN 35 N HEZ 10 NNW MLU 40 N MLU 35 SE PBF 15 SW MEM 25 NNW MEM 20 E JBR 30 SSE POF 15 ENE POF 20 N HOP 50 NNW CSV 35 N TYS 15 W TRI 35 NW HKY 15 S HKY 10 SW CLT 35 WSW SOP 25 ENE FAY 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 20 SSE BGS 55 NNW CDS 30 NW END 35 ESE MVN 10 NW DAY 20 NW ELM 10 NE MSS ...CONT... 20 SSW SAV 45 NNE DHN 20 NE LCH 10 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 W RRT 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 35 S LIC 35 W GJT 35 SW BCE 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 ENE MER 35 NE SAC 20 WNW SVE 30 NNE 4LW 45 NNE RDM 10 WSW YKM 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN. ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH... COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN... THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 16:28:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 11:28:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405281628.i4SGSmj24114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281625 SWODY1 SPC AC 281622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DVL 35 ENE FAR 30 ESE STC 30 WSW LSE 25 S ALO 40 E OMA 20 SSW OFK 20 SW RAP 25 NE 4BQ 25 E SDY 35 SW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 S CAE 10 WSW AUO ESF 55 S SHV 30 NW SHV 30 NW GLH 15 WNW HSV 50 NW CHA 20 NW TYS 35 NNW HKY 15 WSW DAN 40 SSW RIC 15 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SAV 40 NNW CEW 40 NW GPT 30 S BTR 25 NE BPT 10 ENE HOU 15 N VCT 40 WNW VCT 45 SSE AUS 35 SE TPL 45 SSW TYR 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE FYV 20 NNE UNO 35 WNW EVV 10 WNW LUK 25 WSW MFD 15 NNE PSB 20 NE UCA 35 E MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 30 W HIB 45 SSE DLH 25 ENE VOK 45 WNW MMO 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 30 ENE COS 45 W PUB 15 SE GUC 15 N MTJ 25 NE U28 10 S PUC 30 NW 4HV 45 NE BCE 25 ESE CDC 35 WSW SGU 40 NNE LAS 35 N DRA 35 ESE U31 35 SSW BAM 55 WNW WMC 20 NNW 4LW 50 N MFR 35 SSE EUG 15 N ONP 30 SSW HQM 30 ESE CLM 65 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. STRONG TROUGH NOW ALONG THE W CST WILL MOVE E TO A NRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN AXIS BY 12Z SATURDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER AR SHOULD CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT LWR LEVELS...MID ATLANTIC STATES/LWR OH VLY COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND REACH A CHS/MEM LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. BUT THE FEATURE OF LIKELY GREATER CONVECTIVE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE SEGMENTED PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH ATTM EXTENDING FROM SE AR/NRN MS ENE INTO GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. FARTHER W AND N...WRN END OF OH/TN VLY FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ...LWR MS/LWR TN VLY ENE TO THE CAROLINAS... SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INVOF COMPLEX PREFRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG A WSW/ENE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...RELATIVELY WARM AIR IN THE 800 TO 600 MB LAYER ACROSS MS/AL/GA PER MORNING RAOBS SHOULD ERODE FROM W TO E AS AR IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW/WEAK. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE /40+ KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN WSWLY FLOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND FROM N/S ORIENTED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. FARTHER E/NE...SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER NC AND NRN SC...IN AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM WARM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH GULF RIDGE. WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EXISTING SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE QUITE WEAK...AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN. BUT GIVEN 60-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. OVERALL SETUP IN THIS REGION THEREFORE APPEARS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...LWR MO VLY NWWD INTO ERN MT... LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN SD INTO NRN IA/SRN MN AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND EWD PROGRESS OF WRN STATES TROUGH. SATELLITE...RAOB AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MID LEVEL /700 TO 500 MB/ MOISTURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION...WHERE 35-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MASS INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. IN THE MEANTIME...HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRY LINE/WARM FRONT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM OR TWO OVER PARTS OF NRN NEB/SD. IF SUCH ACTIVITY DOES INDEED FORM...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS NW INTO ERN MT. COMBINATION OF MODEST /30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR AND 500-1000 MEAN MLCAPE COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS IN ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. ...OH VLY... A FEW DIURNAL STORMS WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT SEGMENT OVER OH/WRN PA...BENEATH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ..CORFIDI.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 20:05:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 15:05:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405282005.i4SK5mj18498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282003 SWODY1 SPC AC 282000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 45 SE AGS 15 E AUO 20 S 0A8 20 N MCB 25 S ESF 55 S SHV 30 NNW SHV 15 ENE GLH 30 W CBM 10 WSW GAD 20 SE CHA 40 E CLT 30 SSE DAN 40 SSW RIC 15 NE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DVL 15 NNW FAR 20 NNW STC 25 WNW RST 35 SSW ALO 40 E OMA 20 SSW OFK 20 SW RAP 25 NE 4BQ 25 E SDY 35 SW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SAV 15 SW TOI 20 E LUL 25 ENE BTR 25 NE BPT 30 N PSX 40 WNW VCT 20 SE AUS 25 ESE TPL 45 SSW TYR 40 S PGO 45 NNE LIT 55 ESE TBN 30 WNW EVV 10 WNW LUK CMH 30 NNW CXY 10 SSW AVP 25 SW POU 15 NNW ALB 25 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 35 NE BJI 30 S EAU 20 NNE DBQ 15 SW MLI 30 NNW UIN 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 50 ENE SNY 30 ENE COS 45 W PUB 20 S GJT 25 NNW U28 40 W 4HV 15 ENE SGU 40 E DRA 35 N DRA 20 NE TPH 60 NNW ELY 40 NE EKO 25 E WMC 65 S BNO 35 SE EUG 50 N ONP 20 S HQM 30 ESE CLM 65 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...LOWER MS VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY AT LOW LEVELS -- ARE RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NRN LA GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS / AL INTO NR GA...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SERN VA. THIS BOUNDARY -- SOUTH OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS KY / SERN OH / SRN PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM ERN OH INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A VERY LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE REPORTS EXISTS WITH NERN U.S. STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A SOMEWHAT GREATER -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG SERN U.S. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ACCOMPANIED BY 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CLUSTER. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION / DETAILS...PLEASE SEE SWOMCD #965 AND 966. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO MN / IA... WIDESPREAD / MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS INCREASINGLY-STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEB SWD /SOUTH OF WARM FRONT/...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DRYLINE / WARM FRONT INTERSECTION IN N CENTRAL / NERN NEB...AND NWWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO ERN MT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY / CONFLUENCE AXIS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THIS FRONT / TROUGH...ENHANCED VEERING / SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 00:47:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 19:47:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405290047.i4T0lSj15449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290046 SWODY1 SPC AC 290042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW OFK 65 ENE ANW 40 NNW VTN 40 NNW RAP 35 NNE 4BQ 10 SE OLF 50 NNW ISN 50 N MOT 40 WSW DVL 15 NNW FAR 20 NNW STC 25 WNW RST 35 SW ALO 45 ENE OMA 15 SSW OFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SSI 15 NNW DHN 40 ESE LUL 35 NNW BTR 15 NW LCH HOU 45 SSW CLL 20 ESE TPL 45 SSE DAL 30 SSW PRX 45 ESE PGO 35 NNE LIT 30 S DYR 15 SW BNA 40 SSW LOZ 15 N 5I3 40 WSW EKN 50 WNW MRB 35 E HGR 20 SSW ILG 25 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 35 NE BJI 30 S EAU 20 NNE DBQ 15 SW MLI 30 NNW UIN 15 SW P35 15 NW FNB 20 NNW GRI 30 ESE LBF 20 NNE GLD 25 N LHX 30 W ALS 55 S 4BL 40 S SGU 40 E DRA 55 SE TPH 20 NE TPH 55 ENE U31 20 NNE BAM 70 E 4LW 60 SE RDM 40 E DLS 20 WSW EPH 50 NE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MS VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND WY WELL WEST OF MAIN MOISTURE AXIS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR 600MB AT LBF...HAS AIDED INITIATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WITH TIME ONGOING SUPERCELL ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS DIURNAL COOLING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ FORCE NEW DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONTINUED CLUSTERING MAY ALLOW A MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SLOW EWD PROPAGATION EXPECTED INTO THE MS VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. AS SELY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS WRN ND INTO NERN MT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR MOST AREAS. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 05:52:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 00:52:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405290552.i4T5qxj24117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290551 SWODY1 SPC AC 290548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CSM 45 W HUT 35 ENE HLC 20 SW HSI 35 ESE GRI 30 ESE LNK 15 SE FNB 20 SW OJC 40 WSW JLN 25 SSE TUL 35 ESE OKC 40 E CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 25 N BUB 15 E HON 40 NNE ATY 35 WSW STC 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 10 SE DSM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 45 SSW IMT 35 SSW RFD 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 NW TYR 40 NW HDO 20 NNW DRT 45 ENE P07 55 S BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 30 SSW P24 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 35 NW BGS 45 ESE AMA 35 SSW LBL 25 NNE EHA 35 S LAA 10 E RTN 30 NNW SAF 30 WNW GUP 10 NNW GCN SGU 45 NE ELY 50 WSW MLD 20 NW PIH 60 SW 27U 30 S LWS 20 WSW GEG 70 NNW 3TH 30 SSE FCA 10 NNE BZN 25 S BIL 35 WNW MLS 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MQT 45 SSE ESC 10 SW GRR 35 SSE FDY 25 SSW MGW 35 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 35 WNW DAB 30 W JAX 10 NW MGR 25 SW SEM 10 WNW JAN 40 SE SHV 45 NE CLL 30 SSE AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SRN NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK TO SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO THE CANADIAN BORDER... ...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING TORNADOES... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS FROM NRN TX...NWD INTO NEB....AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SWRN MN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF NRN-MOST SFC LOW IN CENTRAL SD WILL RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG VEERING AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT...WWD TO SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...IS RAPIDLY SURGING NWD ACROSS TX EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 05Z THIS AIRMASS HAD RETURNED TO THE HILL COUNTRY...NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX...NEWD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE 70S DEW POINTS WILL LIFT ACROSS OK AND KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE BY PEAK HEATING/CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/BROKEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS AFTERNOON HEATING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...WILL PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 60KT FROM NERN OK INTO NERN KS. DAMAGING TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WELL AFTER DARK ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE COMPLEXES COMPRISED OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS AS IT TRANSLATES INTO WRN IA/MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 08:30:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 03:30:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405290830.i4T8Ubj29661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290826 SWODY1 SPC AC 290823 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S RSL 25 SW RSL 30 N HLC 25 SSE BBW 30 ENE BUB 20 ESE OFK 20 SSW OMA 20 WNW STJ 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN 45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 25 N BUB 15 E HON 40 NNE ATY 35 WSW STC 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 10 SE DSM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 45 SSW IMT 35 SSW RFD 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 NW TYR 40 NW HDO 20 NNW DRT 45 ENE P07 55 S BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 30 SSW P24 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MQT 45 SSE ESC 10 SW GRR 35 SSE FDY 25 SSW MGW 35 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 35 WNW DAB 30 W JAX 10 NW MGR 25 SW SEM 10 WNW JAN 40 SE SHV 45 NE CLL 30 SSE AUS LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 35 NW BGS 45 ESE AMA 35 SSW LBL 25 NNE EHA 35 S LAA 10 E RTN 30 NNW SAF 30 WNW GUP 10 NNW GCN SGU 45 NE ELY 50 WSW MLD 20 NW PIH 60 SW 27U 30 S LWS 20 WSW GEG 70 NNW 3TH 30 SSE FCA 10 NNE BZN 25 S BIL 35 WNW MLS 60 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK TO SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO THE CANADIAN BORDER... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AREA TO MATCH TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK ...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING TORNADOES... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS FROM NRN TX...NWD INTO NEB....AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SWRN MN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF NRN-MOST SFC LOW IN CENTRAL SD WILL RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG VEERING AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT...WWD TO SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...IS RAPIDLY SURGING NWD ACROSS TX EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 05Z THIS AIRMASS HAD RETURNED TO THE HILL COUNTRY...NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX...NEWD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE 70S DEW POINTS WILL LIFT ACROSS OK AND KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE BY PEAK HEATING/CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/BROKEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS AFTERNOON HEATING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...WILL PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 60KT FROM NERN OK INTO NERN KS. DAMAGING TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WELL AFTER DARK ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE COMPLEXES COMPRISED OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS AS IT TRANSLATES INTO WRN IA/MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 12:42:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 07:42:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405291242.i4TCgSj17955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291240 SWODY1 SPC AC 291236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S RSL 25 SW RSL 30 N HLC 25 SSE BBW 30 ENE BUB 20 ESE OFK 20 SSW OMA 20 WNW STJ 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN 45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 25 N BUB 15 E HON 40 NNE ATY 35 WSW STC 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 10 SE DSM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 45 SSW IMT 35 SSW RFD 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 NW TYR 40 NW HDO 20 NNW DRT 45 ENE P07 55 S BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 30 SSW P24 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 25 NNE BGS 10 SW CDS 40 NW GAG 35 WSW GCK 35 S LAA 10 E RTN 30 NNW SAF 30 WNW GUP 10 NNW GCN SGU 45 NE ELY 55 WSW MLD 15 WNW PIH 55 SW 27U 40 S S80 30 SSW LWS 10 SW GEG 45 NE GEG 65 NNW 3TH 40 SSE FCA 10 N BZN 25 SSW BIL 65 ENE BIL 35 NW MLS 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 10 SE PLN 20 SW HTL 25 ENE GRR 35 SSE FDY 25 SSW MGW 35 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 50 NW AYS 45 SSW ANB 45 ENE GWO 35 SE TXK 30 SW TYR 40 NNW CLL 40 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OKLAHOMA TO SWRN MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ...LARGE CITIES IN AND NEAR THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDE OMAHA AND LINCOLN, NEBRASKA...TOPEKA AND WICHITA, KANSAS...TULSA AND OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA... ...A FEW STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES, LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HIGH AND MDT RISK AREAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS KS/OK/MO/AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE...NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL DRIVE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE 60-90M 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THOUGH TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TODAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT ON THE NEB/KS BORDER. DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW...FROM WCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB...INTO SWRN OK...AND ACROSS WEST TX. AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH EVENING... A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS AND THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS/OK AND NCNTRL TX. ...SCNTRL NEB TO CNTRL OK... SCATTERED...MOSTLY NON-SEVERE...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS LEAD IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG. MODEST CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE DRY LINE WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME CAPPING INVERSION AND PROMPT POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING TORNADOES. DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL FURTHER INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS SLY 850MB FLOW OF 40-45KT IS TOPPED BY WLY 500MB FLOW OF 50-60KT AND DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE DRYLINE...AND INITIALLY STRONG INHIBITION...WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN DISCRETE CELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM KS SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER. STRONGER INHIBITION WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD SUGGEST MORE ISOLD...BUT STILL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...ACTIVITY FROM CNTRL OK INTO TX. FROM CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS...AN AREA OF HIGHER LONG-TRACK TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST INVOF FAVORABLY ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA FAVORABLE FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ACROSS NRN/NERN KS. STRONG TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL STORM. ETA RUN FROM 06Z AND 00Z 4KM WRF APPEAR TO SUGGEST A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN TSTM POTENTIAL FROM PARTS OF ERN KS INTO NWRN MO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THESE TYPES OF OUTBREAKS TO EXHIBIT A BIMODAL PATTERN IN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...AND THE SOUTHERN AREA NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WHILE THIS SCENARIO MAY INDEED UNFOLD LATER TODAY...THERE IS INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT DIVIDING THE HIGH RISK AREA INTO TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME. ...NERN NEB/ERN SD/IA AND MN... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PARTS OF NEB AND THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WHILE STRONG CAPPING/INHIBITION IS NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING NEAR COLD FRONT OVER NWRN NEB...AND SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT OVER ERN SD...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AND PROMOTE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP EWD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED SFC-1KM SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADIC STORMS IN ADDITION TO A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FROM WRN MN INTO NWRN IA DURING THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 16:33:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 11:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405291633.i4TGXdj18194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291632 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S RSL HLC 40 NE MCK 30 ENE BUB 20 N SUX 25 SW DSM 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN 45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 30 NNW BUB 30 WNW HON 35 N ATY 20 SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 30 NNW OTM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W INL 30 NW OSH 35 W CGX 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 S DAL 40 NW HDO DRT 45 ESE P07 45 ESE BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 45 WNW BIS 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ELO 30 W MQT 35 N MKG 20 NNW FDY 10 SSE EKN 40 WSW HSE ...CONT... 10 NE SSI 40 SW MCN 15 NNE MGM 50 W SEM 30 NNW LUL 20 SW HEZ 15 WSW ESF 45 NW POE 15 N GGG 45 ESE DAL 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS 15 NNW CDS 40 ESE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50 WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEB...WRN IA...CNTRL AND ERN KS...NW MO AND CNTRL/NRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN/IA/MO/AR AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE PLNS AND MID/UPR MS VLY... ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS AND MS VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW OVER GRT BASIN WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLNS TO THE OH/TN VLYS. HEIGHTS FALLS...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL U.S. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY THIS EVENING...AND THE LWR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE... EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM COMPLEX OF FEATURES ATTM OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN...SHOULD TRACK E/NE AND REACH THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS LATER TODAY AS MAIN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EDGES E INTO THE PLNS. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND TRAILING DRY LINE MOVES E ACROSS THE CNTRL/ SRN PLNS. ...NRN KS/NW MO CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO ERN SD/MN/IA... SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF SRN PLNS UPPER IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LWR MO/UPR MS VLY REGION LATER TODAY...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 IN SE SD/SW MN TO AOA 3500 J/KG IN SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS. BAND OF 40 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION /SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES E AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO PARTS OF IA/MN WI AND NW IL. FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL INTO THE ERN HALF OF ND AND NRN MN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES N OF WARM FRONT. ...CNTRL/SRN KS INTO OK/NW TX... MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK. AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING /PER 700 ANALYSIS/ WILL LIKELY FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. BUT EXTRAPOLATION OF FEATURES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING...AND INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF KS/OK AND NW TX. STRENGTHENING CAP MAY TEMPORARILY DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR WILL CREATE A STRONG CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR INTENSE/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS CAPPED IS BREACHED ALONG DRY LINE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THIS WOULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO ERN OK...NW AR AND CNTRL AND SRN MO. ..CORFIDI.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 20:16:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 15:16:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405292016.i4TKGpj02247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292013 SWODY1 SPC AC 292009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW END 25 SW RSL 30 E MCK 20 ESE BBW 20 SW YKN 30 E YKN 30 SW DSM 40 ENE CNU 35 WSW JLN 25 WNW MKO 40 SE OKC 35 NNW FSI 40 WNW END. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LTS 50 SW RSL 25 W HLC 30 SSE LBF 35 NNW BUB 25 NW HON 35 N ATY 20 SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 45 NNE ALO 20 NNE IRK SGF FSM DUA 30 ESE SPS 10 ESE LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 55 NNE EAU 35 W CGX 20 ESE BLV 55 NNW LIT 20 SSE DAL 40 NW HDO DRT ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 40 NNW SJT 15 N CDS 10 SSW DDC 30 NNW GCK 35 NE LAA 20 WSW LIC 45 WNW AKO 30 NNE SNY 20 SSE RAP 50 SE Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS 40 WSW CDS 40 SE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50 WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 30 W MQT 35 NE MKG 40 NE DAY 45 SSW PSK 40 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 SE SAV 10 SSW MCN 35 SSE AUO 10 N CEW 40 NE MCB 50 SSE SHV 25 ESE ACT 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS INTO ERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND NWRN MO.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK...KS...NEB...ERN SD...SWRN MN...IA...WRN MO...AND NWRN AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX NWD ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...EWD INTO THE MID / UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THE PLAINS... DETAILS OF EVOLVING SCENARIO -- PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- REMAIN COMPLICATED AS SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS / VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER MAIN TROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THESE DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN SEVERAL RECENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SWOMCD/...OVERALL SETUP REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. ATTM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER E CENTRAL SD SSWWD INTO NWRN KS WHERE SECOND LOW EXISTS. FRONT THEN EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SD LOW SEWD ACROSS SWRN IA INTO ERN MO. ADDITIONALLY...DRYLINE NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOW IN NWRN KS SWD TO NEAR THE TX / OK BORDER THEN SSWWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN N CENTRAL NEB NEAR COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS ERN CO NORTH OF THE PALMER RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...TCU / CBS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN OK / THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ALONG DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ELSEWHERE HAS REMAINED SUPPRESSED THUS FAR...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN NERN SD INCREASING TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK/ CONTINUES TO MOISTEN / DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TROUGH APPROACHES -- WITH AZC /AZTEC NM/ PROFILER INDICATING 60 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS AT MID-LEVELS SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE...WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED -- WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT / LARGE TORNADOES POSSIBLE -- GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MO / IA AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE KS / OK REGION AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ..GOSS.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 01:08:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 20:08:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405300108.i4U18Bj01881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300106 SWODY1 SPC AC 300102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW HUT 30 ENE RSL 50 ENE HLC 30 ESE BBW 15 N OFK 25 S SUX 50 ESE OMA MKC 30 SE CNU 20 NNE BVO 30 NE PNC 25 ESE P28 20 WNW HUT. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE GAG 40 SW RSL 45 NNE HLC 25 SSW BBW 40 ESE ANW MHE 30 N FRM 40 E MCW 20 NNE IRK 15 NW SGF 30 NW FYV 35 WSW MKO OKC 45 ESE GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CDS 30 WNW LTS 15 NW GAG 20 S DDC 45 NE GCK 45 W HLC 25 WSW MCK 20 E MHN 25 SW PIR 20 WNW MBG 50 NNW MOT 60 NNE DVL 50 NNE EAU 35 WNW CGX 20 ESE BLV 60 N LIT 15 ENE PRX 50 SSE CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV 40 ENE MCN 25 W ATL 25 WNW BHM 40 SSE GLH 40 ENE SHV 35 SSE DAL 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS 20 WSW CDS 40 SE LBL 10 WSW LBL 35 NNE CAO 35 ESE RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50 WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 30 W MQT 35 NE MKG 40 NE DAY 45 SSW PSK 40 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB...SWRN IA...ERN KS AND EXTREME NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM CNTRL/NRN OK THROUGH ERN KS...WRN MO...ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD AND SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VLY... ...PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS H5 JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS NWRN OK...WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AND MO VLY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXIST FROM NERN KS INTO ERN NEB ATTM ALONG/EAST OF 986 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED SCNTRL NEB. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SERN NEB AND STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXIST FROM ERN KS INTO SERN NEB. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50-60 KT RANGE WITH AXIS AIMED INTO THE LOWER MO RVR VLY THROUGH LATE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND MOVE ENEWD INTO PARTS OF IA AND SWRN MN WITH DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS. 00 UTC SOUNDING FROM NORMAN SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE ISOLD THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALLER MCS AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER OH VLY... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY HAS BEEN PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO FOCUS A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY. VWP FROM PADUCAH SUGGESTS 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF AROUND 125 M2/S2...MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AND PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..RACY.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 06:02:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 01:02:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405300602.i4U62fj29751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300600 SWODY1 SPC AC 300556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE FSM 30 ENE FYV 10 WNW SGF 45 NE COU 30 E UIN 15 WNW DEC 30 S MTO 40 NNE PAH 15 W DYR 25 WNW MEM 60 WSW MEM 20 SSE LIT 10 WNW HOT 40 ESE FSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE PGO 35 NE JLN 35 ENE IRK 40 WSW RFD 15 SSW CGX 40 WNW MIE 25 NE SDF 15 W BNA 30 WSW UOX 45 S PBF 45 N TXK 10 ENE PGO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE 0A8 45 NW MEI 35 NW ESF 20 S LFK 60 E ACT 10 SSE MLC 25 SE OJC 25 NNE CID 30 NE RST 30 SSW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SW IWD 45 NW MKG 40 SE DTW 30 SE YNG 35 SW MGW 25 SSE 5I3 20 SE RMG ANB 20 NE 0A8. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 20 NNE VCT SAT 60 WNW AUS 20 S MWL 40 SSE PNC 15 NNE ICT 30 SSE LBF 50 ESE AIA 15 NW PHP 30 SSE MBG 45 N DVL ...CONT... 30 NNW JHW 15 ESE NEL ...CONT... JAX 35 SE GNV PIE. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SRN MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...AND SRN IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF AR...CNTRL MO...MUCH OF IL...WRN IND...WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NWRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX AND THE SRN STATES INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGEST JETSTREAM ENERGY REMAINED ON WEST SIDE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. ORIENTATION OF TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VLYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE NWD FROM THE DAKS NWD TO SRN CANADA. ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MS VLY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AR. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE MID MS VLY DURING THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST...MID/UPPER OH VLY AND SERN STATES. ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS SWWD INTO THE OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...LOWER-MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS AND THE OZARKS... SIGNIFICANT H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VLY AREA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OH VLY BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MAY REDUCE INSOLATION FARTHER NORTH...A NEARLY CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY VCNTY THE COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN-SWRN MO AND ERN OK. GIVEN POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...TSTMS ARE APT TO QUICKLY GROW INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WITHIN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO PROVE ADEQUATE FOR THE RISK OF STRONG LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE VCNTY ANY SUB-SYNOPTIC LOWS THAT MIGRATE NEWD FROM AR INTO SCNTRL/SERN MO. TSTMS WILL BE MORE ISOLD FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN TX...BUT COULD ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IL. FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID MS VLYS INTO THE EVENING. THEN...ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A SEVERE MCS OR TWO AND BEGIN FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO PARTS OF THE TN VLY LATER AT NIGHT WITH THE RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. NRN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL PROBABLY PIVOT ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...UPPER MS VLY... SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...TSTM LINE SEGMENTS COULD DEVELOP THAT COULD GIVE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MID/UPPER OH VLY... CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL EXIST ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGIONS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF DEEPENING CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. BUT...GIVEN A TSTM...PRESENCE OF AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 13:05:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 08:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405301305.i4UD5Jj21084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301302 SWODY1 SPC AC 301259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE PAH 40 S MKL 20 WNW ELD 25 NW TXK 35 SSE PGO 10 S FSM 40 NNE SGF 40 NE UIN 20 NNW MMO 35 E MMO 30 N DNV 25 SSW HUF 30 SE PAH. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSL GLH 20 SSW ELD 40 NW TYR 35 WSW PRX 30 SSE MKO 35 WNW SGF 35 W UIN 25 W MLI 30 N DBQ 15 NE LNR 40 ESE MKE 25 NNW FWA 20 NE SDF 20 ESE BWG 25 NE MSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MGM 30 SW LUL 25 SSE ESF 45 E CLL 40 WSW CLL 25 SW AUS 40 NNE HDO 30 SSE JCT 25 NNW JCT 15 WNW BWD 10 SW DAL 25 SW MLC 10 E OJC 35 N DSM 15 S MKT 30 SW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SSW IWD 35 ESE MTW 40 SE DTW 20 SSE CAK 30 ENE PKB 25 SSE 5I3 25 SE RMG 20 WNW LGC 25 NNW MGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 ESE NEL ...CONT... SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 N SRQ ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 40 SW SJT 40 NE SJT 20 W MWL 20 SW ADM 35 WSW TUL 35 NE PNC 40 NNE ICT 30 SE HSI 15 NNW MHN 15 NW PHP 45 S BIS 50 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CTB 25 SSE HLN 27U 80 S S80 BKE 30 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR/SERN MO/CNTRL AND SRN IL/WRN KY AND WRN TN/NWRN MS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK OVER SRN WI/NRN IL/IND/KY/TN/NWRN MS/NERN TX/SERN OK AND CNTRL MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER MI... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ARKANSAS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING... ...CITIES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDE SPRINGFIELD, IL...ST. LOUIS, MO...LITTLE ROCK, AR...AND MEMPHIS, TN... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNWIND FROM THE TROUGH AXIS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY NNWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN CANADA. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP EAST WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD BAND OF 60-80KT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ATOP A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM AR/MO TO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL ACT ON THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EAST FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING TO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS BY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ...AR/MO/IL TO IND... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG/ FROM TXK TO WRN IL BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WEAK CAP...AND STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FAMILIES OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK E/NEWD ACROSS NRN AR/ERN MO AND WRN IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ALL POSSIBLE. BY EVENING...LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND...ESPECIALLY FROM MO BOOTHEEL TO IL. THIS SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE PATTERN OF THE MASS FIELDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...AND FCST OF STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ...EXTREME SERN OK/NERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FROM NERN TX TO MIDDLE TN WILL ALSO BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND FOCUS ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN OK INTO WRN AR AND NERN TX LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES BUT ACTIVITY MAY THEN BACKBUILD AND BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LATE EVENING ON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...AND STRONG WLY COMPONENT OF TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...A FAST MOVING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXTEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN ETA/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE FROM SRN AR TO THE TN VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVER ERN SD THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IND. AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN LAKES/NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...STRONG ASCENT ACROSS WARM FRONT...BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO WRN OH. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 16:43:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 11:43:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405301643.i4UGhhj24517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301641 SWODY1 SPC AC 301638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE HOP 60 E MKL 35 NNW TUP 40 N GWO 35 ENE ELD TXK 40 SW PGO 30 WNW FYV 45 NNE JLN 30 ENE IRK 40 WNW MMO 35 E MMO 30 N DNV 35 NE EVV 10 ENE HOP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSL 35 E GWO 45 SSW ELD TYR 35 WSW PRX 25 NNE MKO 40 N JLN 35 SSW P35 25 SE CID 45 W LNR 25 ESE VOK 40 ESE MKE 35 W FWA 20 NE SDF 20 ESE BWG 25 NE MSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MGM 30 SW LUL 25 SSE ESF 35 WSW POE 45 E CLL 25 WSW CLL 10 W AUS 45 WNW AUS 55 SE BWD 25 ESE SEP 10 SW DAL MLC 25 SSE OJC 30 WSW DSM 15 S MKT 30 SW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SSW IWD 35 ESE MTW 40 SE DTW 20 SSE CAK 30 ENE PKB 25 SSE 5I3 25 SE RMG 20 WNW LGC 25 NNW MGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 45 SSW BWD 35 SSW ADM 35 SSW TUL 30 ESE EMP 25 E MHK 45 S EAR 20 WSW LBF 35 W VTN 35 NE PIR 35 W FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN 10 NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 WNW BUF 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 N SRQ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO MUCH OF AR...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN KY AND WRN TN.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL IN...INTO CENTRAL KY...MID TN..NRN MS INTO NERN TX AND ERN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OH AND THE ERN OH AND TN VALLEY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.... ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE OZARKS AND TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION LIKELY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SERN CO/NERN NM ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. BAND OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MO/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT HIGHER LEVELS...PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN MN SHOULD LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. A NEW SURFACE WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER NRN/ERN MO OR CENTRAL IL...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH CO/NM IMPULSE. BUT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS...AND THAT FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY...CONTINUES TO MODIFY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS. ...AR...MO..IL INTO IN..KY AND TN... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN SD SWD THROUGH NWRN MO...THEN SWWD INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. ALSO...WARM FRONT REACHES FROM NERN IL SEWD INTO SERN KY...WITH A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM THE MKC AREA THROUGH W CENTRAL IL TO JUST S OF THE CHI AREA. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC BASED CAPE ALREADY BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...AND LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -9. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RUNNING AROUND 40 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8C/KM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MO EXTENDING SWD/SWWD INTO AR TOWARDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN/CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE EWD...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN AND CENTRAL MO. ALSO...DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVER WHICH MAY ENHANCE A BOUNDARY LATER TODAY ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE HIGH/MODERATE HIGH RISK AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...UVVS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN AR/SERN MO INT WRN KY...WRN AND POSSIBLY MID TN TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 00:52:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 19:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405310052.i4V0qlj09234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310051 SWODY1 SPC AC 310048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW UNI 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW LOZ 25 NNW MSL 50 ESE GWO 25 ENE ELD 40 NNW ELD 20 E MDH 55 NW LAF 20 ESE CGX 45 SE AZO 40 SSW FDY 45 WNW UNI. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HTS 30 WSW CHA 25 NNW TCL 20 ENE JAN 40 W MLU 20 N GGG MDH 35 NE SLO 50 S CGX 20 NNE CGX 15 W JXN 25 NNE FDY 25 W ZZV 30 SW HTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CRE 45 NNW AHN 20 N LUL 35 SE LFK AUS 60 E JCT 25 SSW DAL 35 SSE PGO 55 NNW POF 25 SW DEC 25 E OTM 35 SE RST 30 NNE MSP 65 SSW DLH 30 E MTW 20 ENE CLE 25 NW PIT 10 W MGW 15 NE PSK 40 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 15 S ACY ...CONT... 30 SW CHS 30 SSE AHN 15 WNW MCB 35 NNE VCT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 45 SE DRT 20 NNW DAL 30 NE HRO VIH 35 ENE MKC 35 NE MHK 20 WNW SLN 45 W HLC 45 E SNY 35 NNE CDR 15 S BKX 15 SE RWF 30 NW STC 40 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN 10 NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN/MIDDLE TN...MUCH OF KY...IND...ERN IL AND WRN OH... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VLY TO THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL GREAT LAKES EWD TO THE CAROLINAS... ...THE LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE MIDWEST...TN VLY AND SRN STATES OVERNIGHT... ...MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MS VLY... COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED OVER A LARGE AREA. AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST SWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND IS RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF STORM MODES. A 40 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH THE 50-70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. TWO AREAS OF HIGHER TORNADO RISKS EXIST. ONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND TO KY AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN WRN TN SWD TO SRN AR/NW MS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIMES TO SUPPORT POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICT DISTINCT PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA AND LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...A MORE LINEAR MODE TO THE STORMS HAS EVOLVED FARTHER TO THE WEST FROM THE CHICAGO AREA TO NW AR. POTENTIAL FOR VERY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE MIDWEST INTO KY IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGING MCS WITH TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE OUT OF SRN AR AND TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS EVENING. FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS ON THE VARIOUS SEVERE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND WATCHES. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VLY... NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE MOVED ATOP THE COOLER AIR LOCATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN INTO ERN IA. AIR MASS JUST EAST OF THIS LINE WAS ABLE TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS EVENING AND DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ...ERN TX... 00 UTC CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT PROBABLY NOSES UP INTO ECNTRL TX. A FEW TSTMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX AS THE CAP WAS BREACHED. THE BACKBUILDING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN LA LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREATS. ...CAROLINAS/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SEEM TO BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN CHARACTER. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 05:52:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 00:52:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405310552.i4V5qrj32493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310550 SWODY1 SPC AC 310547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 15 S FLO 35 W DHN 20 WNW MSY 10 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 10 SSE VCT 20 SE NIR 30 W NIR 40 ENE COT 40 NNE HDO 20 ESE BWD 25 SSE FTW 35 N TYR 35 SW ELD 45 SE GWO 15 SSW CSV 10 S JKL UNI 25 NE DAY 25 W MIE 10 NNW MTO 30 W SPI 35 WSW BRL 45 NNE DSM 30 NNW FRM 35 SSE AXN 10 ENE BRD 65 S DLH 10 WSW CWA 10 W MBS 15 E ERI 10 SW BFD 20 NE AOO 35 NNW BWI 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 E SJT 30 N ABI 25 SSW DUA PGO 15 S LIT 25 SE POF 55 SSW STL 40 ENE COU 15 S TOP 25 NNE CNK 50 WSW YKN 25 NNE PIR 20 N DIK 55 N ISN ...CONT... MSS 20 WNW EEN 15 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ELONGATING TO COVER MOST OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. BAND OF STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE SRN STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT RETREATING INTO CNTRL PA AND DE. TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS ERN TX AS A DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL TX. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ONGOING VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD INTO THE OH VLY. THIS PUTS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERE RISKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS COULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ANY HEATING WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. GIVEN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL EITHER CONTINUE FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...OR COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS IN INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. ...SRN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS... POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE IN QUESTION AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE BOUNDARIES ARE APT TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TAIL END SHOULD STALL ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL-GA-LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY...BUT FRONT WILL BE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST H5 FLOW. CONTINUED VERY MOIST INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES. ...CNTRL/ERN TX... THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST CAP SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SWWD MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT BY MID- AFTERNOON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR... SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. GIVEN SLIGHT NW COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST NORTH OF VICTORIA LATER IN THE EVENING. ...UPPER MS VLY/ERN DAKS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER CNTRL MN WHILE EXPANDING IN A WNW-ESE FASHION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND DAKS. ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 18C OR LESS WILL RESIDE OVER RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S DURING PEAK HEATING FROM THE DAKS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST...PRIMARILY BENEATH AND JUST E OF THE LOW IN THE UPPER MS VLY...AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 13:06:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 08:06:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405311306.i4VD6hj02526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311303 SWODY1 SPC AC 311300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 55 NNE AYS 20 E ABY 20 WSW GPT 10 WSW LFT 60 SE AUS 40 S AUS 55 NNW SAT 60 S BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 30 SW TXK 25 E GWO 15 NE GAD 20 SE AVL 50 WNW GSO 15 NE PSK 15 NE BKW 30 NE HTS 25 WSW DAY 50 ESE MMO 30 E ALO 15 E MKT 35 E STC 55 SSE DLH 20 ENE RHI 20 E MBL 10 N MTC ...CONT... 60 NNE CLE 10 WSW DUJ 15 SSW CXY 15 S DOV 20 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 WNW EEN 20 WSW HYA ...CONT... 40 NW LRD 40 E SJT 25 ENE ABI 25 WSW DUA 40 S PGO 10 NNW PBF 45 WNW MSL 60 ENE MKL 35 SSE PAH 25 W VIH 10 W MKC 25 SW LNK 50 NNE BUB 30 WNW PIR 20 N DIK 55 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN VA WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED NORTH TO SOUTH IN CNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC. A STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO ERN VA AND ECNTRL NC THIS MORNING. THE LINE HAS HAD A LONG HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS. AS TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS MORNING...INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HELP THE LINE TO REINTENSIFY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT. AS THE INSTABILITY GOES UP THIS MORNING...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AS A SPEED MAX OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MTNS MOVES EWD ACROSS VA AND NC. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH OF RICHMOND VA EXTENDING SWWD TO CHARLOTTE NC (REF MCD 1015). AS THE LINE REORGANIZES...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND EXIST UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM WRN TN TO CNTRL TX. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES ARE MOVING SEWD ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE ADVECTING NWD FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC HEATING...THE LINE SHOULD REINTENSIFY AND THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE. THE LINE WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS ENHANCING THE SHEAR. BUT AS THE JET DRIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SFC INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN TX AND SW LA...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE LAKE CHARLES 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND THIS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY MOVE SWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS ERN ND. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH IS ORIENTED WNW TO ESE FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS NW MN TO SRN LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. IN ADDITION...SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 16:48:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 11:48:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405311648.i4VGmEj15910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311646 SWODY1 SPC AC 311643 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 20 SE DUJ 15 SSW CXY 15 NW DOV 35 ESE DOV ...CONT... 20 NE SSI 30 ESE VLD 20 N AQQ 35 NNE BVE 20 SE 7R4 10 N GLS 40 SSE AUS 55 NNW SAT 60 S BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 10 S TXK 25 NW HEZ 15 N LUL 30 WSW AUO 45 NE MCN 45 ESE AND 45 NE HKY 15 NE PSK 25 ENE CRW 20 ESE CMH 40 NNW DAY 45 NW DNV 30 SSW RFD 30 WSW LNR 25 E MKT 55 ESE BRD 15 ESE DLH 20 ENE RHI 20 SW PLN 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 40 N JCT 10 W MWL 45 S ADM 25 SSE PGO 25 NNE PBF 10 WSW TUP 25 NW HSV 40 NW CSV 35 E LEX 35 SE LUK 40 NNE SDF 45 NNW EVV 15 SE STL 30 WSW JEF 45 S OJC 30 SSW MHK 30 NNW MCK 25 SSW MHN VTN 25 ENE 9V9 15 SW RWF 30 NE RWF 25 SW BRD 50 WNW AXN 25 ESE JMS 20 S DVL 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST/THE SERN AND MID ATL STATES AND THE UPR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH EVOLVED DURING THE LAST 24 HRS OVER THE UPPER MS VLY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NRN MN WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SWEEPS ENE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. BAND OF 70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE TN VLY TODAY...WHILE SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT LOWER LEVELS...OCCLUDED FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD LIFT N TO THE UPPER GRT LKS TODAY...SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WSWLY ACROSS MUCH OF MI. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IN SRN VA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM TN VLY SPEED MAX. FARTHER S AND W...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF CST AND SERN STATES /LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE/ WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIME CONVECTIVE FOCUS IN THOSE AREAS. ...CNTRL GULF CST NEWD TO CSTL CAROLINAS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN LA ENE INTO S GA LATER TODAY /REF WW 353/ AS HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION OF VERY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODERATE WSWLY DEEP SHEAR. ORIENTATION OF SHEAR PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND FAIRLY LONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED COLD CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY ALSO FAVOR TRAINING AND/OR BACK-BUILDING STORMS ACROSS SRN LA/MS. FARTHER NE...STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE GA/SC/NC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. ORIENTATION OF SHEAR RELATIVE TO BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY WITH DAMAGING WIND /REF WW 354/ THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...MID ATL STATES... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL EXIST INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE/STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DELMARVA REGION. DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...THUS STORM COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION ATTM. BUT BAND OF 50+ KT WLY FLOW OVERSPREADING REGION AHEAD OF TN VLY SPEED MAX WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING CONVECTION ...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR FRONT. ...UPR GRT LKS... A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT INVOF OCCLUSION LIFTING N ACROSS ERN MN/WI AND MI. NRN IL VORT MAX WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION...BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN AREAS WHERE SUNSHINE CAN RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF DIURNAL...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND...IN NRN/ERN LWR MI...POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. ..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 20:08:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 15:08:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405312008.i4VK8rj00350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312005 SWODY1 SPC AC 312002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 15 WNW DUJ 25 SE AOO 20 ENE BWI 35 ESE DOV ...CONT... 10 NNW MLB 30 WNW ORL 25 E CTY 20 NNE AQQ 35 NNE BVE 20 SE 7R4 10 N GLS 50 W HOU 10 W AUS 55 SE BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 30 N TYR 25 SW SHV 30 N MCB 25 SSW MGM 70 SSW AGS 15 NE CAE 15 S HKY 30 ENE SSU 35 ESE MGW 30 NW HLG 30 W FDY 45 NW DNV 45 W MMO 35 NW DBQ 35 SE MSP 55 ESE BRD 15 ESE DLH 20 ENE RHI 25 E ESC 20 NNE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BRO 30 SSE ALI 40 NW VCT 30 E SAT 50 W HDO 50 ENE DRT 50 NE JCT 15 NNE BWD 10 W MWL 35 N DAL 35 SW TXK 30 SSE GLH 25 W BHM 45 ENE CHA 35 E 5I3 15 NE CRW UNI 25 W CMH 10 SSW MIE 35 N SLO 35 ENE JEF 15 SSE OJC 30 SSW MHK 20 NNW MCK 35 E DGW BIL 85 E LWT 40 NNW MLS 40 S REJ 10 SE PHP 30 ENE 9V9 15 SW RWF 30 NE RWF 25 SW BRD 50 WNW AXN 25 ESE JMS 20 S DVL 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND GREAT LAKES... ...GULF COAST REGION... COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO NORTH FL...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. AIRMASS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES AS WELL AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE SOME RISK OF TORNADOES. STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL...WHERE VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL AID THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...EAST TX... AN EXTREMELY MOIST/UNSTABLE SURFACE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG. LITTLE CINH REMAINS IN THIS REGION...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING ENSUES. ...DELMARVA REGION... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS RESULTING IN A POCKET OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL VA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST... SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 05:56:02 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 00:56:02 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405060554.i465sxL28641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060552 SWODY1 SPC AC 060549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW JFK ABE AOO HLG MIE DNV PIA OTM 45 W LWD BIE HSI GRI OFK FOD LNR 35 N MKG 30 SSE OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 15 W MPV 10 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP ALM 4CR 25 WNW TCC LHX CYS DGW SHR 10 SSE LVM 10 SE BTM LMT MFR RDM PDT 10 SSE 3TH GTF SDY BIS FAR HIB 125 NNE CMX ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 3B1 15 E BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL TTN CXY DCA 30 SSW NHK 30 WNW ECG FLO 35 NW CHS 40 ENE SAV SSI JAX GNV CTY MAI MGM AUO MCN AND PSK EKN PKB DAY MTO UIN LWD CNK DDC PVW LBB 65 NNE ABI MWL ACT 10 SSE SAT 40 W MFE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.... SPLIT IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF BLOCK OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...MERGING BRANCHES OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL...EXTENDING EASTWARD NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN U.S. BORDER. INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN IN EAST-WEST BAND AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN STATES. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE... PRIMARILY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... INCREASING CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NEW YORK STATE. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...AS CAP SUPPRESSES CONVECTION EARLY AND ALLOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...JUST AHEAD OF BASE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 06/12Z...JUST TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD/DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...WITH FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MID-LEVEL CAP MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ALONG FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO PERSIST IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO VICINITY OF FRONT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. ...MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH...THAT WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING/WEAK WARM ADVECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS... WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. THOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL BE QUITE WEAK...SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATE IN STRENGTH ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY ENHANCE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO NEAR DRY LINE...MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORT STOCKTON AREA. ...NORTHWESTERN U.S... LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THOUGH LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OREGON...BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ..KERR.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 12:52:04 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 07:52:04 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405061251.i46Cp0I10100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061248 SWODY1 SPC AC 061244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N ART 40 SSE SLK 20 ENE ALB 25 SE MSV 25 NNE ZZV 30 WNW SPI FNB 25 ESE LNK 30 ENE SUX 30 SW ESC 80 ENE APN . GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE ELP ALM 30 NW 4CR 15 N LVS 10 ENE RTN 10 WNW LHX 20 SW CYS 25 S CPR 35 ENE BPI 55 WSW BPI 25 ESE BYI 25 N SUN 60 NNE BOI 35 WNW BNO LMT 20 WSW MFR 15 SW PDX 35 SSW DLS 25 WSW PDT 3TH GTF 20 WNW SDY 25 SSW P24 40 NE MBG 55 NNE ATY 40 SE DLH 25 S ANJ ...CONT... 55 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 10 SSW BHB ...CONT... 25 ENE ACY DCA 35 N SHD 50 SE PKB 35 S CMH 15 WNW HUF 40 SE UIN 10 ENE MHK 15 SSE DDC 30 SE AMA 35 ENE LBB 25 SW ABI 50 E SJT 10 WSW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD...ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS JET IS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO QUEBEC TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD AND BE LOCATED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD. ...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES WWD TO IA... ONGOING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF WI SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS NERN WI INTO NRN LOWER MI FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI. SRN HALF OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN IL SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS NWD. INFLUX OF MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH NEAR 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG USING A 80/57 SURFACE PARCEL. WEAK UPSTREAM JETLET ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS WILL MIGRATE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES DURING PEAK HEATING. AS THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE REGION...CINH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION VCNTY LAKE MI EWD INTO LOWER MI. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY ORIENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE 2-8KM SHEAR VECTOR WILL INITIALLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY OVER LOWER MI. A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. EVENING KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH FORWARD AND BACKWARD PROPAGATION GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW. ANY BOW ECHO/LEWPS WILL MOVE INTO SRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE AREA TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TSTMS WILL ATTEMPT TO BACKBUILD UPSTREAM ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD NRN IL AND ERN IA. THIS FAR WEST...CINH MAY REMAIN STRONG TO LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR OVERNIGHT TSTMS/POSSIBLE HAIL TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY STATE... TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION COULD BECOME EFFICIENT FORWARD PROPAGATORS THIS EVENING GIVEN POSITION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS. AS USUALLY THE CASE...EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS TO BE A LEAST A THREAT OF BOW ECHOS/LEWPS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY STATE AND POSSIBLY NRN PA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVE TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK CITY AREA OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... FRONT WILL SETTLE TO ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT CAP WILL BE IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE VCNTY SURFACE LOW/DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NWRN/WCNTRL KS WHERE CINH MAY BECOME WEAK ENOUGH FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE A HIGH BASED TSTM. GIVEN A STORM OR TWO...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH...SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE MO RVR. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX/SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ONLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..RACY/GUYER.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Thu May 6 20:03:51 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 15:03:51 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405062002.i46K2kM31687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061959 SWODY1 SPC AC 061956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ART 40 SSE SLK 15 NNW PSF 30 NNE EWR 20 NE LBE 40 WSW PIA FNB 30 SSW OMA 45 NNE OMA 30 W MKG 90 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP ALM 25 NW 4CR 10 NW LVS 15 ENE RTN 10 NW LHX 25 N FCL 25 S CPR 30 ENE BPI 55 E MLD 30 ESE BYI 35 W SUN 60 SSE BKE 50 WSW BNO 10 WSW LMT 10 W MFR 30 S EUG 15 SSW SLE 15 N PDX 40 NNW DLS 35 NNW PDT 10 SSE 3TH 40 SE HVR 20 WNW SDY 30 SW P24 30 NNE PIR 30 NE MHE 10 SSE MKT 40 NE RST 45 SSE ESC 80 ENE APN ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 15 S BHB ...CONT... 20 ENE ACY 15 SE EKN 30 W BLF 15 NNE JKL 35 NNW LUK 10 SSW SPI 30 WSW TOP 35 SE DDC 30 SE AMA 30 SE PVW 25 WSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S..... ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NE US... A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SRN IA AND FARTHER SW INTO KS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS ADVECTED NWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN THIS REGION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM IA EWD THROUGH OH AND SRN MI. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA REMAINS CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAD ADVECTED EWD INTO MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY...AND LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN MUCH OF WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD IN THIS REGION. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING FROM OH NWWD THROUGH NRN IND AND EXTREME SRN LOWER MI WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING ON ERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE FROM SERN MI/NRN OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR BY EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SEWD...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAKE BREEZES IN A WEAKER CAP REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH PARTS OF OH...PA AND NY DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FARTHER W OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT SURFACE BASED INITIATION. HOWEVER...STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN POST FRONTAL AREA BY THIS EVENING WHERE COOLER MID THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT WEAKER CAP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...HIGH PLAINS... DEEP MIXED INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...SW TX... SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE DEEP MIXING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. LATEST WV IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From calvinfs at goshen.edu Fri May 7 00:42:05 2004 From: calvinfs at goshen.edu (calvinfs at goshen.edu) Date: Thu, 06 May 2004 19:42:05 -0500 Subject: [Swody1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405070041.i470f2400309@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070039 SWODY1 SPC AC 070035 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT THU MAY 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART GFL PSF ABE LBE 10 ENE UNI CMI LWD LNK 50 NW OFK YKN SPW DBQ 30 WSW GRR 20 ENE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SE 3B1 15 S BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY HGR EKN CRW LUK MTO MKC HUT GCK AKO DGW 10 N RIW JAC 10 SSE LVM 10 WSW OLF 40 NW ISN MOT JMS RWF 40 SW EAU OSH MBL 10 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 45 N 4CR 40 SSE RTN 40 N TCC 45 N ROW CNM HOB 10 NNW MAF 40 ESE FST DRT 40 W COT LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY... DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC BLOCK...MERGING BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW EXTEND IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. NORTHERN BRANCH...JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...REMAINS MOST PROMINENT...WITH INTENSE MID/UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY MIGRATING ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ACROSS THE U.S...BUT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING SOUTH OF JET HAS BEEN...FOR THE MOST PART...INHIBITIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO AREAS OF NEW YORK TO THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH ...NOW CROSSING MICHIGAN...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. WITH LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT MAY MITIGATE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...FAVORABLY SHEARED 40+ KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT RISK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN WAKE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...TRAILING LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CAP WILL STILL BE INHIBITIVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER LATER THIS EVENING...ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS AXIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS SHOULD FORM ABOVE INVERSION ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...THERMAL RIDGE ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 05:52:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 00:52:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405070552.i475qX431688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070550 SWODY1 SPC AC 070547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE GSB GSO BLF HTS LUK IND DNV 30 NE PIA BRL LWD FNB CNK EAR BBW ANW 9V9 ATY STC 45 NNE EAU MTW GRR TOL CAK ABE 20 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF GDP 4CR LHX BFF SHR 25 NE COD 10 SE JAC 25 WNW SLC ELY TPH TVL RBL DLS 30 N 63S ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT 25 NNE GFK BJI HIB IMT 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW ERI BFD BAF 10 E BOS ...CONT... ILM 45 S CLT AVL 5I3 BMG BMI P35 MHK P28 LTS ABI 10 WNW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID MO VALLEY.... ...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... DOWNSTREAM OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC BLOCK...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MERGING BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW WILL EXTEND IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FASHION ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. NORTHERN BRANCH WILL REMAIN MOST PROMINENT... WITH AN INTENSE JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/ NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORTING A DEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...A COLD FRONT...ALREADY PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES TODAY. FRONTAL ZONE HAS ALREADY BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO NEW JERSEY AT 07/12Z. AS SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHIFTS EAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY MIDDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA. DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY. THOUGH FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE ONLY MODERATE IN STRENGTH...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. OTHER SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR FRONT UPSTREAM INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... WHICH MAY TRACK BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES ON WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. ...MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN WAKE OF EASTERN CANADIAN LOW/TROUGH...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES/PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH HAS SURGED INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD. MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOIST/ POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR ON 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET LIKELY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION OVER BROAD AREA OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO STRONG CAPPING LIKELY TO STILL BE IN PLACE NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DO SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED...FORCING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING IN WARM SECTOR AND NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT. STRONGEST LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN/ EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OREGON/NORTHWEST NEVADA INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ..KERR.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 16:29:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 11:29:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405071629.i47GTwX13349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071627 SWODY1 SPC AC 071623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE GSB GSO BLF 20 SW HTS 35 SW LUK 15 NNW DNV 30 SW MLI 35 WNW OTM 45 ESE OMA 25 NW BIE 15 SW HSI BBW ANW 9V9 ATY STC 45 WSW RHI 35 NNE MTW 20 ENE GRR 25 NNE TOL 15 SSE YNG ABE 20 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 30 E HTL 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... ERI 30 E AVP JFK ...CONT... 55 NNW MOT 40 WNW MBG 25 NNW PIR 50 WNW HON 35 SW BJI 45 WNW HIB 50 ESE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 20 NW TLH 35 NNE VLD SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 SSE ALM 15 N 4CR 35 SSW RTN 40 N LHX 20 NNE SNY 40 S GCC WRL 10 SE JAC 55 SW MLD ELY 45 N TPH TVL 55 ESE EKA OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE OAJ 35 SSW GSO 35 ESE TRI 20 WNW JKL 25 SSE BMG 30 SSW BRL 30 WSW STJ 25 S ICT 25 NNW LTS 65 N ABI 45 WNW SEP 50 WSW TYR 50 NE CLL 50 WNW HOU 45 SSE VCT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST WLYS ACROSS SRN CANADA EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO NERN U.S. UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE PAC NW WITH A S/WV TROUGH MOVING INLAND BY TONIGHT. POLAR HIGH MOVES EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS NRN PA TO CENTRAL IL SEWD TODAY. WESTERN PORTION OF FRONT INTO SRN NEB WILL BEGIN WORKING NWD AS WARM FRONT BY TONIGHT AS SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...7-7.5 C/KM... HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SRN FRINGE OF WLYS. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR S OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF FRONT FROM NEB EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST... CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG AND N OF COLD FRONT THIS AM ERN OH VALLEY...WHERE CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WITH STRONG HEATING OCCURRING S OF COLD FRONT EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES TO 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR TO 50KT COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY E/ESEWD THRU THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WARM SECTOR S OF FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THRU MUCH OF AFTERNOON. WITH FRONT SHIFTING N ACROSS ERN NEB/IA WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN MN/WI TONIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES COULD INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY ACROSS SRN MN/NRN WI TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DO INDICATE A SEVERE MCS COULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF CASCADES. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND HIGH BASED STORMS...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY. ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS MUCH OF HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES ALL BUT ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE. WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING NEWD W TX COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION...HOWEVER ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 7 20:19:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 15:19:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405072020.i47KK4q14179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072017 SWODY1 SPC AC 072013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW HSE 10 SSW DAN 40 NE SDF UIN 25 SE BIE 40 S ANW 9V9 65 ENE STC 35 ESE CWA 10 WSW ARB 30 SSE FKL 15 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 WNW AQQ 20 NW TLH 35 NNE VLD SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 30 E HTL 55 NNE MTC ...CONT... 40 WSW ERI 25 SSW IPT 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 SE OAJ 10 NW LOZ 40 WSW EVV 30 E COU 25 ESE TOP 25 ENE GAG 50 NE ABI 40 N CLL 30 NE PSX ...CONT... 50 W MRF 20 SSE ALM 15 N 4CR 35 SSW RTN 40 N LHX 20 NNE SNY 40 S GCC WRL 10 SE JAC 55 SW MLD ELY 45 N TPH TVL 55 ESE EKA OTH ...CONT... 50 N MOT 55 SW DVL 35 NNE MBG 30 ESE MBG 15 WSW ABR 50 SSW BJI 30 NNW HIB 50 ESE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...ERN NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT...PARTIALLY ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...EXTENDS FROM PA THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO SE NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OF NERN KS AND SERN NEB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG FARTHER EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF NRN IL THROUGH SRN WI. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED FARTHER S CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY FROM SERN NEB...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME SW IA. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY...WITH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND ENHANCES LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING SEWD THROUGH WV. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF NRN VA AND IS WEAKLY CAPPED AND SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT SEWD INTO VA. OTHER STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND SPREAD SEWD. OVERNIGHT... STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COULD SPREAD INTO THIS AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ...MT... HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM. STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNLESS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION. ..DIAL.. 05/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 00:41:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 07 May 2004 19:41:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405080041.i480fdq02189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080039 SWODY1 SPC AC 080036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE RWI DAN LYH 40 NNW SSU CRW DEC P35 30 SSE OMA LNK GRI BBW ANW 9V9 BRD RHI LAN MFD MGW BWI 20 ESE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX HTL 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 NE CLE LBE 25 SSW ACY ...CONT... 10 NE ILM 10 N CLT 30 SSW 5I3 SDF ALN 45 NE COU MKC PNC LTS 60 SSW CDS BGS SJT TPL CLL 20 SW GLS ...CONT... 50 W MRF 35 WNW GDP 50 SE LVS 10 NW CAO 30 E LAA 10 N HLC MCK IML SNY DGW CPR 10 W RIW 10 WNW OGD 15 WSW EKO 15 W WMC 15 E 4LW 45 N MFR OTH ...CONT... 50 N MOT 30 NNW HIB 50 ESE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.... ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS... MORE PROMINENT BRANCH OF WESTERLIES REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE JET STREAK CONTINUING TO NOSE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH...NOW JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... WILL MIGRATE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY LATE THIS EVENING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA. STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... FRONT EXTENDING OUT THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS ...THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD IN WAKE OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 08/06Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION... LIFTED PARCELS EMANATING FROM EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPEAR LIKELY TO POSSESS CAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN STATES... ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ALSO APPEAR MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING SHORTLY. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 05:58:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 00:58:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405080558.i485wbq19596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080556 SWODY1 SPC AC 080552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1252 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF ELM IPT 25 NNW CXY HLG CAK MMO DSM BIE CNK EAR ANW VTN 10 NW 4BQ DIK 10 NE BIS 20 ESE JMS AXN RWF RST MKG MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE JAX 10 WSW CTY ...CONT... 20 SSW CEW AUO 50 SSW TYS 10 NW 5I3 20 SW UNI 10 SW DAY 15 WNW SPI STJ 35 WNW EMP 20 ESE GAG 30 NE BGS 25 N SJT DUA TXK 15 SE BPT ...CONT... 50 W MRF CNM TCC 10 E SNY 55 NNE DGW 15 ENE COD SUN 10 ESE 4LW MFR 15 WNW ONP ...CONT... MSS 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 20 ENE ACY 10 N BWI 40 NNW RIC 15 S RIC 10 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.... MODELS INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MERGING BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW EAST OF BLOCK CONTINUING TO STRADDLE THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. NORTHERN BRANCH...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER ...STILL APPEARS TO BE MOST PROMINENT...WITH STRONGEST EMBEDDED JET STREAK PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER... UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG JET STREAK...EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER GREAT LAKES/ ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY UPPER JET STREAK STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT...FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES...THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL SLOW NORTHWARD RETREAT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MID-LEVEL WARMING ON WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN CAP ONCE AGAIN ALONG FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON FRONT NEAR THE IOWA/NEBRASKA BORDER..AND...BY LATE AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL. RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. OVERNIGHT...LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS HEAVY RAIN BECOMES AN INCREASING THREAT IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY... FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LAKE ERIE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA/AND OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY... WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE NEAR LEE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA...LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK. EVOLUTION OF GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT...STRONG WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASING BASED ABOVE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTH CAROLINA... UPPER FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AND SURFACE FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ..KERR.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 12:43:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 07:43:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405081243.i48Chbq19636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081241 SWODY1 SPC AC 081238 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15 ENE PIA 30 S OTM 25 ENE BIE 40 NNW CNK 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NE 4BQ 25 WNW DIK 40 WNW BIS 25 ESE JMS 25 N AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SAV 55 ESE MCN 20 NNE ATL 60 SSE TYS 15 ENE HTS 30 NNW UNI 20 NE DAY 15 WNW SPI STJ 35 WNW EMP 20 ESE GAG 25 ENE BGS 25 WNW SJT 40 E SJT 25 SE BWD MLC 25 ESE UMN 20 NW ARG 30 S TXK 30 NNE GLS ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 10 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DLH 25 NE AUW 30 NW MBL 30 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BUF BDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 E ROW 45 NNW CAO 10 E SNY 55 NNE DGW 15 ENE COD 45 S 27U 50 NNW 4LW 55 SSE EUG 15 WNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 10 N BWI 40 NNW RIC 15 S RIC 10 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS TO WRN PA... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY... WLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS FOCUS FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADILY EWD MIGRATION OF ONGOING MCS ACROSS WI/LOWER MI INTO UPSTATE NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. MAJOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SUPPORT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION THUS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ERN-MOST CONVECTION...WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD UPSHEAR GENERATING ELEMENTS. FARTHER WEST...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS FREE TO CONVECT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS ALREADY SUPPORT A QUICK WARM UP WITH A NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE JUST OFF THE SFC THROUGH 500MB AT LBF. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL HAMPER STORM ORGANIZATION FOR SRN MOST ACTIVITY. IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE PARCELS WILL BE FREE TO CONVECT BY DIURNAL PEAK HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. WLY LARGE SCALE MEAN WIND WILL ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STRONG LLJ...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH TIME STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MCS/S ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING HAIL ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS THAT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NWD ACROSS NEB/IA. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 16:22:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 11:22:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405081622.i48GMYq15432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081620 SWODY1 SPC AC 081616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15 ENE PIA 15 ESE OTM 20 ESE OMA 40 WNW BIE 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NNE OLF 55 NNE ISN 55 NNE MOT 45 SE JMS 20 SSE AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ACY 15 NNW MRB 20 SSE EKN 15 NNE ROA 15 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 30 N BUF 15 SW POU 15 SW ISP ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 WNW RHI 50 SSW IMT 30 NE TVC 15 N OSC ...CONT... 15 WSW ELP 25 WSW 4CR CAO 10 SE LAA 40 ESE SNY 50 SSW GCC 50 ENE COD 20 SW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 35 W BWD 30 E DUA 20 SSE JLN 35 W UNO 40 ESE HRO 10 E SHV 45 WSW POE 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SAD 30 NW SAD 30 SW SOW 10 E SOW 65 E SOW 75 WNW TCS 50 ENE SAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 30 W CHS 30 WNW SSI 35 SSE VLD 25 SE TLH 25 N PFN 20 WSW ATL 20 SW UNI 15 S CMH 20 NNE IND 10 ESE DNV 40 W LWD 45 ENE HLC 30 WNW CDS 25 NE BGS 75 E FST 15 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN /CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY...... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY FAST WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF PAC NW COAST...HOWEVER A S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND AND WILL RAPIDLY CROSS MT INTO NRN HI PLAINS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD E OF APPALACHIANS TO VICINITY NC/SC BORDER WHILE W OF APPALACHIANS THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS OH TO CENTRAL IA AND NRN NEB. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SWRN NEB WITH TROUGH SWD THRU WRN KS WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT IN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST...MAINTAINING A STEADY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE. ...ERN NEB EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY... WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO MORE THAN 9C/KM ACROSS KS/NE/IA AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM IA INTO NEB...AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES VICINITY OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY DOES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ONCE THE CAP WEAKENS TO ALLOW SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD VICINITY AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO NRN OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ......NRN HIGH PLAINS... S/WV TROUGH PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT THIS PM WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WRN DAKOTAS. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON ERN MT. WITH MUCAPES UPWARD TO 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN ND BY THIS EVENING. ...CAROLINAS... HAVE ADDED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE VICINITY THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS NOW NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MDT/STG INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS THIS PM COULD RESULT IN LARGE HAIL. WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A MINIMAL RISK ATTM. ...WRN TX/NM BORDER AREA.. SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW NOW E OF AREA...THE MID AND UPPER FLOW W TX IS NLY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA EVEN WITH THE FLOW GENERALLY LESS THE 20KT AT ALL LEVELS. MDT/STG INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FORMING BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY AND E OF E SLOPES NM/SWRN TX MTNS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 8 19:55:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 14:55:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405081956.i48Ju5q32043@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081954 SWODY1 SPC AC 081950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BUF 45 W ELM 25 W IPT 20 NE AOO 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE 15 ENE PIA 20 S OTM 30 SE OMA 40 WNW BIE 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 55 SW RAP 15 W 4BQ 50 NNE GGW 55 NNE ISN 65 N DVL 40 SSE JMS 25 SW AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SYR 20 NNW MSV 15 NE JFK ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY MRB 25 NNE SHD 15 N LYH DAN 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 WNW RHI 50 SSW IMT 25 W TVC 10 W OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 10 ENE SVC 30 NNW SAD 35 SW SOW 20 E SOW 40 S GNT 10 WNW SAF 30 ENE TAD 25 N LAA 40 SE SNY 45 W SHR 30 WSW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 35 W BWD 15 ENE SPS 45 NNE MKO 20 ENE FYV 50 SSE HRO 50 ESE SHV 35 ESE POE 20 WSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CHS 35 W CHS 15 NNW JAX 35 NNW CTY 30 N VLD 20 SW AGS 40 WNW AND 30 NNE HTS 30 SE DAY 15 WSW IND 25 NNW HUF 40 NE MKC 25 E RSL 60 N CDS 60 WSW SJT 30 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN /CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...... ...ERN NEB EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB EWD ACROSS IA INTO EXTREME SRN LWR MI. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED IN IA. THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS WEAK...THE VICINITY OF THE E/W FRONTAL ZONE COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN IA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AND SHIFT EWD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NEB AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS AND MIXES TO THE LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SUGGESTIVE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ......NRN HIGH PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH MT. INCREASING SLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MODERATELY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AND SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES...SO THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. REFERENCE WW 162. ...CAROLINAS... THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY COOL...RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WEAK CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT MORE THAN A FEW STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. ...WRN TX/NM BORDER AREA.. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE MAINTAINING MID/UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL TX IS RESULTING IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT ...WHICH IS ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FULL SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL TX MAY BE RESULTING IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES NM/SWRN TX MTNS...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT MANY STORMS FROM DEVELOPING...HENCE THE VERY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..IMY.. 05/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 00:54:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 08 May 2004 19:54:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405090054.i490skq09625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090052 SWODY1 SPC AC 090049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW BUF 25 NW ITH 25 ESE ELM 20 ESE PSB 20 E PIT 20 SSW MFD 10 E MIE 10 ESE DNV 20 E SPI 40 SSE IRK 30 NW TOP 10 NE HLC 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW VTN 35 ESE REJ 40 SW DIK 60 N ISN 55 NNE ISN 60 N DVL 35 SW FAR 45 WNW RWF 15 NNE RST 20 N GRB HTL 55 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 35 WNW GFL 25 SSW PWM ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY MRB 25 NNE SHD 15 N LYH DAN 20 SSE EWN ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 NNW RHI 10 SSW IMT 40 W PLN 15 NE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 15 E ALM 15 WNW 4CR 25 ENE LVS 30 ENE TAD 25 N LAA 40 SE SNY 45 W SHR 30 WSW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 40 NNW CHS 20 SE JAX 40 S VLD 25 NNE MGR 45 N MCN 50 E CHA 20 SW HTS 10 WSW LUK BMG 20 SW MTO 10 W SZL HUT 25 N CDS 15 SSW BGS 15 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 35 SE BWD 25 ESE SPS 25 SSW MKO FSM 10 WNW HOT 50 ESE SHV 35 ESE POE 15 WSW 7R4. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS... A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING CURRENTLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THOUGH QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM OVER WRN ND IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY DRIER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING TSTMS EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ND OVERNIGHT. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO CNTRL ND. OVER SD...CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE MORE SEWD ALONG PRE-EXISTING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SEWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AS OF 00Z. 00Z UNR SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS STILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...NEB AND IA... TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING FROM ERN NEB EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA ALONG AND S OF SURFACE FRONT WITH 00Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATING A MLCAPE OF AROUND 2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS /I.E. 15-25KTS AT 500MB/ ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED FROM OAX TO DMX...DEVIATE RIGHTWARD MOTION EXHIBITED BY SEVERAL STORMS IS ENHANCING LOW TO MID-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE WINDS WITH A THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...ONGOING TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE MORE SWD WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT EXTENDING INTO NERN KS/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. ...GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY... BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS WI HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY N OF SURFACE FRONT WITHIN COOLER/DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS...SWLY FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY /PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING/ ATOP SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT OVER NRN IND INTO OH INTO PA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS IND INTO OH WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EWD INTO PA WHERE STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY EXIST. ..MEAD.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 12:48:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 07:48:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405091248.i49Cmpq23616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091246 SWODY1 SPC AC 091243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 25 ESE HTL 15 ESE CID 10 NE FNB 20 N RSL 10 WSW DDC 20 NW LBL 45 E LAA 30 NW MCK 30 WSW MHE 55 N ATY 25 NNE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ORF 45 WSW MRB 15 NW LBE 25 ESE FKL 35 NE BFD 20 SSW BGM 15 SW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ART 10 NE ALB 30 SSE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FHU 20 SSW ABQ 20 W LVS 50 S LAA 45 WNW GLD 30 SSE SNY 35 NNE RWL 35 SE SUN 75 NE SVE 20 ENE RBL 15 SE EKA 15 E 4BK 30 NNW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 SSE 3DU 50 N SHR 30 SE 81V 35 SSE PHP 40 WNW PIR 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 ENE BWD 35 NNE MWL 15 ESE ADM 35 SW PGO 20 W TXK 15 E GGG 10 N LFK 45 ENE PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 50 WNW FLO 35 NE MGR 25 NNE DHN 45 SE MEI 30 SSW GWO 50 NE LIT 25 ENE ARG 30 WNW HOP 15 SE BWG 35 S LEX 25 SSE LUK 25 NE IND 15 SSE UIN 10 SSE FLV 50 WSW P28 55 ESE LBB 30 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LLJ OVER CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAPID HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE FROM NWRN KS INTO WRN MN BY MID AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FOCUSED MASS FIELDS ALONG BOUNDARY FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER MN BY 21Z. IN ADDITION TO COLD FRONTAL FORCING...IT APPEARS STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPPER SPEED MAX DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE...ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO STREAM NEWD/MIX DOWN AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AIRMASS WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IT APPEARS ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. EVENING ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO VEERING LLJ INTO MI. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTO WRN KS WHERE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SLOWER MOVING LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... 12Z SOUNDING FROM WAL INDICATES DEEP WLY COMPONENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...7 C/KM FROM 850-500MB...THROUGH MID LEVELS. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FROM PA INTO NRN VA...IMMEDIATELY WEST OF COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THAT HAS YET TO RETREAT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS MAY TEND TO FOCUS ALONG THIS DEMARKATION WHERE RAPID HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 16:23:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 11:23:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405091623.i49GNoq23147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091621 SWODY1 SPC AC 091618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW IWD 15 WNW VOK 15 S ALO 30 WNW DSM 20 SSW SUX 15 NNE FSD 45 ENE ATY 35 NNE BRD 35 SW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 15 NNW ORF 30 NE EKN 20 NNE HLG FDY 15 N FWA 45 N LAF 30 NNE PIA 30 S OTM 25 NNW STJ 20 ESE CNK 45 SW RSL 30 ENE LBL 35 N EHA 30 N GLD 25 S 9V9 30 NW ABR 20 NNW JMS 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE 30 SSE HEZ 15 NNW GLH 20 NW MEM 40 S PAH 25 NNE LOZ 45 W HTS 20 NE LUK 20 WSW IND 20 ENE IRK 40 N GAG 65 SSW GAG 65 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 30 SSW FTW 30 N FTW 20 SW BVO 35 SW JLN 30 NNE FYV 30 N SHV 30 NE GLS ...CONT... ILM 20 ENE FLO 15 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW DMN 25 S SVC 30 SE SAD 20 WNW SAD 30 WNW SOW 30 ENE 4SL 35 W CAO 35 SSW LAA 15 SE AKO 40 WSW SNY 10 NNE LAR 50 WSW RWL 15 SE RIW 15 E WRL 40 ESE 81V 30 S PHP 10 SW PIR 20 E MBG BIS 40 WSW P24 70 NE LWT 25 NNE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF MN WRN WI AND NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER WINDS TRAVERSING NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA MOVES EWD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING NRN MT/NWRN ND SWEEPING SEWD REACHING NRN MN SWWD INTO NRN WY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THRU MN EWD INTO LOWER MI. AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS MOIST AND EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER MS VALLEY TO S OF WARM FRONT. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE STRONG HEATING IN WARM SECTOR...THE CAP EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID AFTERNOON FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MDT RISK AREA. GREATEST INITIAL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VICINITY WARM FRONT AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM SERN ND SWWD INTO N CENTRAL NEB. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY WARM FRONT. STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERE MCS AND PROPAGATE E/SE THIS EVENING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES. ....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... HAVE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK VICINITY AND S OF WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO SRN LWR MI. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAP ALONG WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..HOWEVER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES NEAR WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ...PA/DELMARVA/NJ... REF MCD 613 WARM FRONT RETURNING NWD IN THIS REGION AS WELL. SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER THAN FURTHER W...HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7C/KM AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE CAP ERODES. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MULTI-CELL WIND AND HAIL THREAT GIVEN THE WEAKER SHEAR IN THE REGION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG AND JUST E OF SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE. BY MID AFTERNOON THIS LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM SWRN KS SSWWD INTO TX BIG BEND. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK...HOWEVER PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE MOST ANY WHERE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING HOURS. ...SERN U.S... REF MCD 612 STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST PULSE CONVECTION WILL BE COMMON VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. CAP IS ALREADY WEAK SO STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 9 20:11:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 15:11:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405092011.i49KBSq01268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092009 SWODY1 SPC AC 092006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW IWD 30 WNW LSE 40 ENE MCW 20 SE GRI 10 WSW BUB 30 ENE MHE 45 ENE ATY 20 NE BRD 60 SW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK ...CONT... 20 SE ORF 20 SSW CHO 25 SSW LYH CLT 25 SE AND 15 SW AHN 30 ENE RMG 15 E CHA TYS BKW EKN 15 NNE HLG FWA 45 ESE MMO 25 NNE UIN 10 S MKC ICT 20 SSW P28 35 E LBL 55 WSW GLD 15 NNW SNY AIA 20 N MHN 20 SE 9V9 25 NNW ABR 30 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 20 SW SOW GNT 50 E TAD 10 ENE LHX 45 E GUC 20 N GUC 30 S CAG RWL 30 S CPR 40 W CDR 30 WNW VTN 9V9 40 WNW ABR 20 WNW JMS 60 N DVL ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS BID ...CONT... 40 N HSE 30 ESE LYH 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB JAN 25 ENE GLH MEM MKL BNA LOZ HTS 20 SW PKB ZZV 30 N DAY 15 WSW MIE 20 ENE MTO 15 WSW STL 25 N SGF 15 N FYV SHV 15 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE END 50 ESE GAG 40 S GAG CDS 30 N SJT 60 ENE JCT 45 E DAL 45 W MKO 35 SE PNC 15 SE END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ONP 45 NNW RDM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA/CENTRAL AND SRN MN AND NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN MN/ERN SD/ NWRN NEB. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WEST CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD EXPAND SWWD INTO NERN NEB ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ...BUT MAINLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI NWWD INTO NRN MN. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND PROPAGATE ESEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN NEB WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SELY ACROSS WRN KS. HIGH BASED CU/CB HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN WY/SWRN NEB AND SHOULD SPREAD EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL MODELS INDICATE A COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL NEB AND THEN TRACKING EWD AS AN MCS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB/NRN KS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. ....SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF AN MCV LOCATED IN SRN LAKE MI. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170. ...PA/DELMARVA/NJ... WARM FRONT IS RETURNING SLOWLY NWD WITH THE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL PA... THOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED COVERAGE THUS FAR. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS S/SW OF THE BIG BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCT HAIL/WIND. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TX PANHANDLE ...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS PRECLUDES A SLIGHT RISK. ...APPLACHAINS... STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...BRIEF SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DRY AIR ALOFT. ..IMY.. 05/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 01:12:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 09 May 2004 20:12:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405100112.i4A1Coq30772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100110 SWODY1 SPC AC 100107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 20 W BGM 10 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 30 SW DCA 45 WSW MRB 10 ENE HLG 40 SSW FDY 35 ENE LAF 10 N BMI 40 WSW BRL 15 ESE FNB CNK 45 N GCK 50 NE LAA 30 WNW IML 15 SSW MHN 60 SSW MHE 20 E BKX 25 E AXN 40 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW MSS BID ...CONT... 40 N HSE 25 NE RDU 10 NNE CAE MCN 35 NNE DHN 40 N MOB 40 N LFT 10 SSE ELD 40 WSW ARG 25 SW CGI 45 NE PAH 15 SW LEX HTS 20 SW PKB 25 SE CMH 45 WNW LUK 15 ESE HUF 35 NE SLO 35 W STL 35 S SZL 15 WNW END 15 NE CDS 10 SSE DRT ...CONT... DUG 35 SE SOW GNT 50 E TAD 10 ENE LHX 30 WSW COS 35 ENE ASE 25 NW 4FC 35 WSW LAR 55 SSE DGW 40 W CDR 50 S PHP 9V9 10 WNW ABR 45 ENE JMS 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HQM 35 SW YKM 40 ESE RDM 50 SSW 4LW 20 SW MHS ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BUF 25 ESE ELM 15 ENE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF KS/NEB NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN EWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION... ...MN/WI SWWD INTO WRN KS... MATURE BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS CURRENTLY FROM W-CNTRL WI SWWD INTO SERN MN /S OF THE TWIN CITIES/ MOVING GENERALLY ESEWD AT 40-50KTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM S OF CWA TO N OF MSN AS OF 00Z. HERE...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FED INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM BY STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MN/NWRN IA...AND FROM N-CNTRL INTO SWRN NEB. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 55-65F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG PER 00Z OAX SOUNDING. STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS / MCS/S OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEB INTO IA AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. OVER WRN KS...HIGH-BASED DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING ISOLATED...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES MI ESEWD INTO PA/NJ... LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN IL/NRN IND IS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCV TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO ONTARIO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE ACTIVITY FROM CHI EWD INTO SRN LOWER MI REMAINS CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS WILL SUPPORT BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND/OR JUST TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS /CURRENTLY OVER WRN WI/ MAY APPROACH WRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT FARTHER SE OVER PA...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS NJ/MD AND NRN DE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY 03 OR 04Z AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE MCD 625. ...ERN NM/WRN TX... MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS FAR WRN TX INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM... AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK /I.E. AOB 20KTS AT 500 MB/ ELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND COMPONENT IS RESULTING IN 30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 03Z OR SO. ...VA SWWD INTO NRN GA... TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM NRN GA INTO CNTRL VA. WEAK FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN DEEP MOIST PLUME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 05:39:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 00:39:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405100539.i4A5dXq09455@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100537 SWODY1 SPC AC 100533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW WAL 15 N PKB 40 NNE DAY 15 NNE SPI 25 SSE EMP 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 40 N LAR 55 S GCC 45 S OLF 35 WNW ISN 20 NNW P24 50 SSE PHP 20 N BBW 10 E OMA 20 SSE ALO 35 E PLN ...CONT... 30 NNE PBG ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM 30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 30 SSE UNO 20 ESE VIH 20 WSW JEF 55 ENE CNU 20 WNW END 30 NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 20 NE HDO 55 SE AUS 35 NNW HOU 25 NE GLS ...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 30 WSW LAR 30 SSE LND 45 SE SLC 50 ENE TPH 65 W RNO 40 N MFR 15 NE RDM 35 W BKE 35 ENE MSO 55 N GGW ...CONT... 60 N GFK 50 W AXN MKT 20 ENE EAU 25 NNW MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA EJECTS NEWD INTO WRN QUEBEC AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN PARTICULAR...STRONG VORTICITY MAX JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL ROUND AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS TROUGH BASE AND LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN TROUGH WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SERN ONTARIO THROUGH SRN WI INTO CNTRL IA BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ERN PORTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM LAKE ERIE SEWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION WILL RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPREADING NWD INTO NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. TO THE W...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW WRN PORTION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT TO LIFT NWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN NEB/ERN WY BY EARLY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ANY ONGOING STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS NY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. HERE...LOW-LEVEL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AT THIS TIME ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA PRIOR TO SPREADING EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE W ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN PORTIONS OF NRN IND/IL. HERE TOO...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE RAPID NWWD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 50-55F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED INTO WRN NEB/SERN WY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. HEATING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT EWD MOTION INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED ON FORECAST HODOGRAPHS. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND IN ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER MAY AUGMENT WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH LARGE HAIL. ...KS EWD/NEWD INTO MO/IA... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 12:50:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 07:50:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405101254.i4ACsaq11503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101248 SWODY1 SPC AC 101245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE GRI 15 WNW SLN 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 25 N LAR 50 S GCC 30 S 4BQ 20 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 W VTN 25 N BBW 15 ESE GRI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MSS 20 NNW BAF 35 E ISP ...CONT... 35 S WAL 40 S FDY 10 NNW CMI 10 NW BMI CGX 10 NNW GRR 55 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM 30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 25 NW UNO 10 NE UMN 15 WSW TUL 55 NNE CSM 35 NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 55 WNW AUS 60 ESE ACT 40 E LFK 25 ENE GLS ...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 45 NNW LAR 20 S WRL PIH 25 SSE BAM 40 S SVE 30 E MFR 50 ESE RDM 40 S PDT 50 NNE 3DU 55 N GGW ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 50 W AXN 25 S FRM 25 ESE LSE 70 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LK MI EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WHILE A TROUGH MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN CONUS GENERALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH N OF THE BORDER MOVES FROM WRN ONTARIO TO NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SWRN EXTENSION BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...LK MI AND VICINITY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC... LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT EXISTS TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION SOUTHEAST OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF PA / NY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK UPPER FEATURE -- AND SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI WILL SPREAD ACROSS PA / NY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONGER WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT MORE NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL-SCALE BOWS ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ERN WY / ERN CO SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WEAK CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN KS / NWRN MO ATTM...AND THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY AFTERNOON...500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS. WITH MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...MODERATE / VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN KS / WRN NEB DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...BUT THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. ..GOSS.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 10 20:06:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 15:06:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405102006.i4AK6Mq32604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102002 SWODY1 SPC AC 101959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ORF 30 ENE CRW LUK 25 WNW SDF 10 WSW EVV 20 NNE MDH BLV 30 N ALN 15 NNW SPI 30 S MMO MKG OSC ...CONT... 10 NNE ART 45 N MSV EWR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CDS 30 E CVS 10 ENE TCC 40 SW CAO 10 NNE TAD LAR 45 N CPR 40 NNW GCC 25 WSW REJ 45 NNE RAP 15 NNE VTN 40 WSW RSL 10 SSW CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DUG 50 NNW SVC 30 N DRO 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC 15 ESE PIH 40 SSW NFL 20 ENE SAC 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 N GFK ABR MHE OFK LNK 30 NW FNB 25 W LWD 30 WNW OTM 45 NNW DBQ GRB ANJ ...CONT... 15 ESE ORF 55 ESE LYH 30 WSW GSO 35 ESE AND VLD 40 SSE CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S PNC 30 NNE CSM 20 SSW LTS 15 WNW ABI 45 SSE BWD 15 SSE TPL 35 NNW TYR 55 ESE SHV 10 SSE MLU 20 W GLH 50 WSW JBR 50 W ARG 15 NNE FYV 40 S PNC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY... A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE YIELDING MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH CENTRAL IL AND DETROIT 18Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED... CONVERGENCE/LIFT IS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE 5-6 KM WINDS SWITCHED TO NWLY AT THE PROFILER SITE IN NWRN MO AT 17Z...INDICATIVE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS WEAKEN THIS FEATURE...IT SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM ERN MO/IL/IN EWD INTO OH/LOWER MI. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW AT 20-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MULTICELL STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. ...NERN UNITED STATES... AN MCV HAS MOVED FROM NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SUBSIDENCE COVERED MUCH OF NY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OH/PA/WRN NY ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE UNTIL 23Z. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF LAKE BOUNDARIES AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER THAN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS LOWERING PRESSURES ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...INDUCING STRENGTHING E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID/UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS NWWD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS OF WY/NERN CO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND THESE DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MID LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 30 KT...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE VEERING WIND PROFILES/AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...FORECAST 1 KM SRH FROM 400-500 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. A FEW HOURS AFTER THE INTENSE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ..STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL NEB OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. REFERENCE MD 634. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... THE SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER FROM WRN KS/SRN CO SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THAN ACROSS NEB/WY...BUT THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR... PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY WHERE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LOW/50 DEGREE OR LOWER/...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE ERN TEX PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS. ...TN VALLEY... DESPITE VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A FEW STORMS WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL THREAT. ..IMY.. 05/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 00:35:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 10 May 2004 19:35:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405110035.i4B0ZXq14048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110032 SWODY1 SPC AC 110029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ACY 35 NW SBY 25 WNW NHK 25 NW RIC 25 ESE LYH 15 S SSU 35 WSW MGW 15 W DAY 25 NE IND 10 NNW CMI 15 E BMI 25 S MMO 15 ENE MMO 30 NE CGX 20 WSW GRR 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS 20 W EEN 40 ESE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE MOT 35 S Y22 50 NW VTN 30 NE MCK 25 S HLC 40 SSW GAG 55 S CDS 35 NE BGS 25 NNE MAF 40 ESE HOB 35 ENE RTN 15 NE COS LAR 25 NE SHR 80 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK ABR MHE OFK LNK 30 NW FNB 25 W LWD 30 WNW OTM 45 NNW DBQ GRB ANJ ...CONT... 30 NE ECG 55 NNW RWI 30 WSW GSO 35 ESE AND VLD 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 20 SE DUG 70 NE SAD 25 E CEZ 25 NW CAG 50 SSE LND 15 NW LND 30 SSE JAC 15 ESE PIH 40 SSW NFL 50 W RNO 35 SSE MHS 70 S RDM 55 ENE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TUL 20 S END 20 WSW FSI 40 NW MWL 20 S MWL 40 N ACT 10 NNW TYR 55 ESE SHV MLU 40 WSW GLH 45 NE LIT 50 W ARG 15 NNE FYV 10 WNW TUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA REGION... ...HIGH PLAINS REGION... INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG SELY SURFACE WINDS AND A RAPID NWWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WY/CO AND WRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG FROM E-CNTRL WY SWD INTO NERN CO...TO AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS E-CNTRL CO /PER 00Z DNR SOUNDING/. SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN TROUGH IS CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM E-CNTRL WY SWD INTO ERN CO. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE MESOCYCLONES. FARTHER S INTO SWRN KS AND WRN TX...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL THROUGH THE 80S AND ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS FROM ERN MT INTO WRN/CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50-60KTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD INTO CNTRL MT. STRONG MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN RAPID AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 750MB. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE BUOYANCY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. ...GREAT LAKES EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION... FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO NRN MO HAS FOCUSED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY UNIFORM...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS NOTED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH A DECREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL IS RAPIDLY MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY AT 40-50KTS. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS PLACE ACROSS WRN CT INTO CNTRL MA. ..MEAD.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 05:51:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 00:51:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405110551.i4B5pTq05074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110549 SWODY1 SPC AC 110546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ELO 20 NNE MKT 40 SSW SPW 15 ESE OLU 55 N RSL 25 NE CDS 65 SSW CDS 40 SSE LBB 35 W LBB 45 NW GLD 30 S AIA 25 NNW RAP 15 S DIK 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 10 SSE HOB CAO 20 S AKO 15 NNW DEN GUC 20 N CEZ 30 SE CDC 30 NW TPH 40 W U31 OWY 20 NNE MQM 55 N GGW ...CONT... 20 SW WAL 25 W RIC 45 WNW GSO 35 ESE AND 25 W JAX 10 SSW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ART 10 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SZL 30 W JLN 15 NW FSM 55 SW ARG 40 NNE DYR 10 WSW PAH 25 E BLV 30 NW SZL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE TX PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD INTO THE NERN STATES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED 90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK /CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV/ WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH RESULTANT 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE DAKOTAS/NEB. AT THE SURFACE...INTENSE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NERN WY WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS NRN SD AND INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB AT THIS TIME. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM DEEPENING NEB LOW SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX. IN THE E...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO WRN TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB ALONG AXIS OF 50-60KT LLJ. A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO SHIFTING NEWD INTO MN. DEGREE OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS/CONVECTIVELY PROCESSED AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND THIS COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NEB NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP MIXING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP AND INITIATE TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FROM THE CNTRL DAKOTAS SWWD INTO WRN NEB. STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO 45-55KTS ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR VECTOR TO BOUNDARY SUGGESTS A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NERN NEB INTO WRN MN. FARTHER S ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN TX...HEIGHT FALLS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH. THIS COUPLED WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND/DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS... DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK CAP OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG SAGGING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL OCCURRENCES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A GRADUAL DEMISE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 16:25:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 11:25:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405111625.i4BGPPq20186@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111622 SWODY1 SPC AC 111619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40 E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW CMX 30 SSW MCW 30 SE LNK 45 N P28 60 NW ABI 35 NNW BGS 45 WSW LBB 40 ESE LAA 35 SE SNY 30 W CDR 40 WSW REJ 45 SSW DIK 60 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ALI 20 SE COT 15 WNW SAT 60 WSW TPL 35 WNW ACT 50 ENE ACT 40 WNW LFK 15 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 80 SSE MRF 30 SW AKO 45 E FCL 35 NNW 4FC 35 NE GJT 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE SRQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SD SWD THRU NEB INTO NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS REMAINDER OF HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WRN U.S. WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS MOVING EWD ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT 12Z. ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD ATTM WITH SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THRU SERN WY INTO SERN UT. PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM SURFACE LOW ALONG ND/SD BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN ESEWD THRU SRN LOWER MI. 50-60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE NWD THRU PLAINS WITH LOW/MID 60 DEWPOINTS COMMON IN WARM SECTOR NWD TO WARM FRONT. WEAK SRN BRANCH S/WV TROUGH MOVING ACROSS S TX WHERE THERE IS A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE SLY FLOW WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TX COASTAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WRN SD WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED LOW WITH A SECONDARY CENTER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NERN CORNER CO. RESULT WILL BE A SHARP N/S DRY LINE FROM LOW IN WRN SD SWD TO ALONG CO/KS BORDER WITH AIRMASS E OF DRY LINE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR E OF DRY LINE. AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ROTATE INTO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT CAP WILL WEAKEN TO ALLOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST E OF DRY LINE AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF E/W WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DRY LINE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INTO HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL BEING DOMINANT INITIALLY. HOWEVER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES BY THIS EVENING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WINDS IN DOWNBURSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG TORNADO THIS EVENING IN THE MDT RISK AREA AS FAVORABLE SHEAR DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SWD VICINITY DRY LINE INTO TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER BUT AIR MASS STILL VERY UNSTABLE. A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EWD AFTER DARK VICINITY WARM FRONT AS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES NEWD INTO PLAINS. ...TX... REF WW 183 AND MCD 648 THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SLY FLOW IN TX IS WEAKLY CAPPED. WITH ONGOING STORMS AND 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH BOWS/SHORT LINES SUCH AS THE CURRENT BOW MOVING EWD TOWARD THE COAST N OF CRP. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO DELMARVA NJ... REF MCD 649 AGAIN TODAY A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS THIS REGION TO S OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WRN MA WWD ALONG NY/PA BORDER TO NEAR CHI. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE PULSE SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT MLCAPE...RANGING UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG... ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND DOWNBURST THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 11 20:16:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 15:16:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405112016.i4BKGDq04396@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112009 SWODY1 SPC AC 112006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HLC 45 N GCK 30 SSW GLD 40 NNW IML 50 ENE CDR 45 NE RAP 35 S Y22 40 E Y22 50 NW ABR 65 S FAR 45 ENE ATY 25 SE BKX 15 SSE GRI 35 S HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CMX RST BIE 20 WNW GAG 55 NNW DRT 30 NE P07 35 SSW FST 10 SE TCC 45 NNW GLD 15 WNW AIA 55 NNE RAP Y22 75 NNE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW PSX 45 E COT PSX 30 NNE PSX 10 NW ACT DAL SHV 15 SSE BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 55 WSW TCC 25 E AKO 40 W SNY 30 NNW 4FC 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE SRQ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ND...PORTIONS NEB AND NW KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MN/ERN ND SSWWD TO W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS S AND E TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN MT. AS THIS CYCLONE DRIFTS ENEWD ACROSS MT TONIGHT...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET BETWEEN NWRN GREAT BASIN...4-CORNERS AREA AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S TX -- AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY. AT SFC...EXTREMELY INTENSE FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM NWRN SD CYCLONE ENEWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN ND AND W-CENTRAL MN. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN MN...BUT BASED ON CURRENT ISALLOBARIC TRENDS...WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY OVER ND/SD BORDER REGION UNTIL SFC LOW MOVES BY DURING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN WY...WRN NEB AND NERN CO. DRYLINE -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM SFC LOW SD TO INVOF KS/CO BORDER AND TX/NM BORDER...SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB. DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER S. ...GREAT PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST... REF SPC WWS 184 AND 185...AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS... FOR DETAILS REGARDING NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM SD INTO KS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE FROM MN SWWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TO NEAR SFC LOW...AND WITH DRYLINE SWD AT LEAST INTO NWRN KS. GREATEST SIGNIFICANT/ DAMAGING HAIL THREAT IS WITH SUPERCELLS IN CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA. THIS IS WHERE ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-UPPER FLOW IS JUXTAPOSED WITH NWRN PORTION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING/LIFT. MODIFIED 18Z RAOBS AND RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASES IN BOTH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE. HIGH LCL AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPRESS TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH EARLY CONVECTION -- HOWEVER INCREASING MOISTURE/SHEAR AND DECREASING LCL INDICATE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BECOME LARGER...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ALONG DRYLINE SWD ACROSS W TX...THOUGH DECREASING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT AND INCREASING DIURNAL DEPENDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION OF SEVERE. ...SE TX... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES WITH ORGANIZED MCS OVER TX COASTAL PLAINS N-NE OF CRP...THOUGH IT SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO AIR MASS WORKED OVER BY NWD MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER E-CENTRAL TX. REF SPC WW 183 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS EXPANDING OUTFLOW COVERAGE AND LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING COMBINE TO REDUCE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 00:42:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 11 May 2004 19:42:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405120043.i4C0hBq09292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120040 SWODY1 SPC AC 120037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW IWD 10 E FRM 50 S HSI 40 W P28 25 S SJT 30 NE P07 25 NE FST 25 W AMA 40 NNW GLD 50 NW MHN 25 W PIR 30 N JMS RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF 55 WSW TCC 25 E AKO 40 W SNY 30 NNW 4FC 30 E MLF 45 NNW TPH 20 WNW NFL 20 W BNO 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE 63S 30 E GEG 15 W MSO 35 WNW 3HT 70 NNE BIL 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 NNW BUF 20 W ALB 25 S PSM ...CONT... 25 NE ECG 55 WSW ORF 35 ENE FLO 25 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 25 SSE SRQ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO WRN TX... ...NRN PLAINS SWD INTO WRN TX... REFERENCE RECENT MCD/S 660 AND 661 FOR LATEST MESOSCALE/NEAR TERM THREAT ACROSS SD/NEB AND TX. QUASI-LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL SD SWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB. STRONG HEATING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB NEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN. FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS E OF COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS OBSERVED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. EXPECT ONGOING LINE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB INTO WRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. LINE MAY TEND TO ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECT NEWD OUT OF CO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS OVER W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL MN ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS COLOCATED WITH STRONGER AND MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO WRN TX. ALTHOUGH 00Z MAF/DDC SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MODESTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...UPPER TX COAST EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS SRN LA WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONG ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF WEAK COLD FRONT /EXTENDING FROM EWR WWD TO DUJ TO S OF CLE AS OF 00Z/ WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 05:17:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 00:17:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405120517.i4C5HVq21717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120514 SWODY1 SPC AC 120511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW ANJ 15 ESE JVL 45 NE COU 15 NNW SGF 50 NW FYV 30 NE OKC 25 NE FSI 35 NW LTS 35 E LBL 35 SW GCK 20 SSW LAA 40 E COS 30 SE CYS 20 WSW SNY 35 S MCK 10 ENE CNK OMA 30 WNW RWF 20 NNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE DRT 35 N HDO 10 SE BWD 30 N ABI 40 S CDS 65 ENE AMA 20 S LBL 50 SSE LHX 20 W TAD 10 N DRO 15 SSW CNY 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 60 W OWY 20 SSE BNO 10 NNE PDT 35 W PUW 40 SSW 3DU 20 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 60 ENE ANW 10 WSW HON JMS 70 N GFK ...CONT... 25 E MSS 30 SE SLK 25 NNE PSF ISP ...CONT... WAL 30 W RIC 20 SSE LYH 15 WNW GSO 40 SE CLT 15 SSE CHS ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 45 SE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W/HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THE FIRST OF WHICH /CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL WY/WRN NEB/ WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN LATER TODAY AND INTO MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NV/WRN UT. THIS FEATURE WILL ROUND THE TROUGH BASE AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO PROGRESSING NEWD INTO ERN NEB/IA BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO LEAD VORTICITY MAX WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL MN TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD. BY EARLY EVENING...FRONTAL POSITION SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND FROM WRN WI SWWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF IA AND KS TO DEEPENING SECONDARY LOW OVER FAR SWRN KS/OK PNHDL REGION. PORTION OF COLD FRONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN MORE QUASI-STATIONARY OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS/WAA ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY. FINALLY...DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MIXES EWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM SECONDARY LOW SWD THROUGH ERN TX PNHDL OR WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... PRE-FRONTAL TSTM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM N-CNTRL MN/MN ARROWHEAD SWD INTO CNTRL MN AND NERN NEB. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...MOIST FEED OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD AID IN DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI SWD INTO WRN IL AND CNTRL/ERN IA WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-1500 J/KG. REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON WITHIN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND CNTRL/ERN IA. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME ALIGNED IN FRONTAL-PARALLEL BANDS OR CLUSTERS AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS WI INTO THE WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN TO THE W IN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR...MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST ALONG AND E OF SURFACE FRONT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING INVOF SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON S OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NERN KS...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT SWWD INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP OVER CNTRL INTO SWRN KS. WHILE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...MODESTLY STRONG 500MB WINDS OF 35-45KTS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF INSTABILITY AXIS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY TEND TO INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK OWING TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AXIS OF DEVELOPING LLJ. UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF TSTMS INTO CLUSTERS/MCS IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AHEAD OF EJECTING NV/UT VORTICITY MAX. WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO W-CNTRL/NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. FINALLY...A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE WHERE BOUNDARY-LAYER BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO OVERCOME CAP. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT... POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL/ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 13:07:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 08:07:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405121307.i4CD7Fq16494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121305 SWODY1 SPC AC 121301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 30 NNE OKC 15 NE FSI 20 WNW LTS 20 WSW GAG 10 WNW LBL 15 SSW LAA 30 E COS 35 ENE DEN 40 NW AKO 30 SSW IML 20 S HSI 35 ENE OMA 25 NW MCW 20 NNE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DRT 25 N SJT 40 S CDS 55 NNW CDS 40 SSE EHA 50 SSE LHX 40 NW TAD 10 N DRO 15 SSW CNY 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 60 W OWY 20 SSE BNO 10 NNE PDT 35 W PUW 40 SSW 3DU 20 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB YKN 15 N BKX 30 E FAR RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 20 NE LEB PSM ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 45 SE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS / ERN CO / OK... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER FEATURES MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN BELT OF STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF MAIN TROUGH. A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- WELL AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD TO THE TX / LA BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER MN SWWD INTO OK / NRN TX PANHANDLES AND THEN WWD INTO SRN CO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SEWD SURGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS SLOWS THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN CO. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW BOUNDARY TO RETREAT NWD INTO WRN KS / ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SWD PUSH ACROSS THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS / OK / ERN CO... MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ATTM...WHILE CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP AND HEATING TO COMMENCE...WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE INVOF COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ACROSS WRN KS OR WWD INTO CO IN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS OK / TX. STRONGEST INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST ACROSS KS...WHERE 40 TO 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD THEREFORE BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. FURTHER SWD ALONG DRYLINE...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER -- BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR MULTICELLS / WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ONE OR MORE MCSS LIKELY EVOLVE OVER KS / OK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ALONG COLD FRONT FROM MN SSWWD INTO NERN KS. LOW 60S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. IN ADDITION TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY / SHEAR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. STORM CLUSTER CONTINUES ACROSS AR / LA / WRN MS WITHIN MESOSCALE CIRCULATION NOW OVER FAR SERN AR ATTM. AS THIS FEATURE AND SECOND / WEAKER CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER W CENTRAL MO ATTM MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE / 20 TO 30 KT / WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY ALLOW SOME STORM ORGANIZATION / PERSISTENCE. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAIR DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW ANY SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH. ..GOSS / TAYLOR.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 16:27:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 11:27:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405121628.i4CGS0q32426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121625 SWODY1 SPC AC 121622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 30 NNE OKC 15 NE FSI 20 WNW LTS GAG 10 WNW LBL 15 SSW LAA 30 E COS 35 ENE DEN 30 NW AKO 30 N GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 45 SSE LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 NNE WEY 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WRN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT S/WV IMPULSE HAS ROTATED NEWD INTO PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MN WILL ALSO MORE NEWD AND WEAKEN AS STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD REACHING WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO VICINITY MKC BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES THROUGH BOTTOM OF MAJOR TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS LEE OF SRN CO/NRN NM ROCKIES . COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED SWD OVERNIGHT INTO NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM SHOULD STALL WITH SURFACE DEEPENING. DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD FROM FRONT THRU ERN TX PANHANDLE TO BIG BEND. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... SLY FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE TO THE POINT WHERE THERE IS POTENTIALLY A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF COLD FRONT AND E OF DRY LINE. A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL DELAY INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO SERN CO. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AREA OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT KS AND DOWN THE DRY LINE VICINITY OK/TX BORDER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND A VEERING HODOGRAPH IN THE SFC-1 KM LAYER..COUPLED WITH MLCAPES LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...SUPPORT A SUPERCELL MODE OF STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL HOWEVER AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR VICINITY DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING AND CAP WEAKENS FURTHER WITH THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH...SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING E/SE ACROSS KS AND WRN/NRN OK. FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE AGAIN TODAY PULSE SEVERE EXPECTED TO BE THE MODE SWD TO TX BIG BEND. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY... AIR MASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CANADA AND WEAKEN AND THE MEAN WIND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF GENERALLY 30KT...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR. WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF STATES... VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY SHEARED AIRMASS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN PULSE THUNDERSTORM MODE. COVERAGE OF SEVERE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK KINEMATICS.. ..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 20:07:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:07:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122007.i4CK7qq05634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122002 SWODY1 SPC AC 121959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 22:34:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 17:34:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122234.i4CMYkq07222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122232 SWODY1 SPC AC 122229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 22:54:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 17:54:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122254.i4CMscq19399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122249 SWODY1 SPC AC 122242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 3 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE 20 W UMN 15 SW TUL 25 SE OKC 10 ESE FSI 25 W LTS 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO 25 NE GLD 50 W CNK 35 ENE OMA 25 N FRM 35 ESE INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF 10 NE LBF 15 NE BUB 35 NNE SUX 40 NNW RWF 35 SSW BJI 25 NE RRT ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE...RETRANSMIT GRAPHICS REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 12 23:09:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 18:09:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405122309.i4CN9Lq28014@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122307 SWODY1 SPC AC 122304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 4 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 122229Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW ANJ 30 WNW MKE JEF TUL 25 SE OKC BWD 35 NW SJT 35 WSW GAG EHA 40 S LAA 30 N LHX 10 ENE LIC 45 SSE AKO RSL 20 W MHK 10 NNE ALO 40 NW AUW 65 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 20 S LRD ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 35 NW OWY 45 SSW BOI 50 NE BOI 65 WSW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF LBF EAR BIE 40 N DSM 45 SSE DLH 40 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AMENDED FOR W-CENTRAL/NW TX RISK UPGRADE...RETRANSMIT GRAPHICS REF WW 194 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS ON AMENDED AREA. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS 2000Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD/SWWD THROUGH NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL KS TO A LOW OVER EXTREME NWRN OK. SURFACE DRYLINE FEATURE EVIDENT FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH EXTREME WRN OK...THEN SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AWAITING THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE LATER TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS OF KS AND OK... AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO S CENTRAL KS. INTERESTINGLY...BRN SHEAR NUMBERS ARE 60-70 M2/S2 JUST ALONG/SE OF THE BOUNDARY AWAITING FOR THE WEAK CAP TO BREAK THAT IS STILL OVER CENTRAL OK. LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY 00Z OVER CENTRAL KS...AND NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AFTER 00Z. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BRN SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 80 M2/S2 INCREASING THE THREAT TO ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EXTREME S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG/S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TONIGHT AS FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50-60 MID LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLATEAU AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES NWD ACROSS TX ENHANCING SHEAR PROFILES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CHANGE MODES LATER TONIGHT FROM SUPERCELLS TO MORE MCS WITH THE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN WI INTO SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARDS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WI WHERE MLCAPES ARE TO 1500 J/KG. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. ...PARTS OF PA INTO NJ... ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY WARM...MOIST AIR MASS. STRONGEST CLUSTER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS EXTREME E CENTRAL PA INTO SERN NY BEING ADVANCED BY COLD THERMAL POOL. AIR MASS AROUND THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..EDWARDS.. 05/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 01:15:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 20:15:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405130115.i4D1F3q00524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130111 SWODY1 SPC AC 130108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW STJ 25 ENE MKC JLN TUL 25 SE OKC BWD 35 NW SJT 40 WSW GAG LBL 40 S LAA LHX 35 SSE AKO 35 SSW MCK 15 NNW RSL 15 NNE MHK 10 WSW STJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX JBR UNO MLC 60 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50 SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 85 WNW OWY BKE S80 55 WNW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF LBF EAR LNK FOD EAU 15 SSW CMX ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES MEAN TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS...WITH EJECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SWRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGIONS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...EXTENDING POTENTIAL FOR GEN TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS LS/UPPER MI/WI...SEWD ACROSS IA/NWRN MO...AND SWD OVER NERN AND SWRN KS. FRONT ARCS WNWWD ACROSS SERN CO. EXPECT FRONT NEAR SSM-RFD-MKC-P28-TCC LINE BY 13/12Z...PERHAPS EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER REGION BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... CONFIRMED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS UNDERWAY OVER PORTIONS SW KS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO OCCURRENCE NEXT FEW HOURS. REF SPC WW 193 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY POTENTIAL GENESIS REGION FOR MCS THAT WOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN KS AND KS/OK BORDER REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AFTER APPROXIMATELY 6Z. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED WITHIN WESTERN PORTION OF 45-55 KT LLJ. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE EVIDENT FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS WRN OK/NW TX...E OF DRYLINE THAT SHOULD RETREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. REF WW 194 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ACTIVITY OVER TX IS MORE HIGH-BASED...MORE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE ASCENT...THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER N...AND SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...DAMAGING HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FROM TSTMS NOW OVER ERN CO...ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT. REF SPC WW 195 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. WITH BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER S-R INFLOW FARTHER SE ACROSS SRN KS...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 4Z. ...WI/IL... TSTMS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AMIDST WEAKLY SHEARED/UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE BUT POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ONLY MARGINAL PROBABILITIES. ...SERN LA... CLUSTER OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS IN WEAK SHEAR REGIME WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN LA AND THEN OVER COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 676 FOR SHORT TERM FCST DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 05:56:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 00:56:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405130556.i4D5uEq11352@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130554 SWODY1 SPC AC 130551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CDS CSM END MKC 45 SSE P35 45 E COU UNO JCT 60 W JCT 50 NNE P07 BGS 25 SE CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 45 SSE LBB PVW 30 ESE CVS 30 WSW CVS 50 NE 4CR 40 SSW ALS GJT EVW MLD 45 SW MQM 30 SE DLN 45 N COD GCC 35 NE DGW 45 E CYS 35 ESE AKO 30 NNE GLD 35 S EAR 35 ESE GRI RWF 40 ESE BRD 55 SE ELO ...CONT... 10 ESE SSI 15 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL MO TO W-CENTRAL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...WRN CONUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD OVER GREAT PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NEB/KS/OK/WRN TX BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SRN KS...TO SERN CO -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MO/OK AND NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH PERIOD. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...TO INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT IN CDS-SPS-FSI REGION...SSWWD PAST SJT...THEN RETREAT WWD AFTER 00Z. SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION AROUND TIME OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING AFTERNOON...BECAUSE OF TENDENCIES OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS TO UNDER-FCST LEE-SIDE COLD AIR SURGES THROUGH MID SPRING. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ALONG AND JUST E OF DRYLINE. TSTMS MAY INITIATE EARLIEST NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER SW OK/NW TX WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED...IN WHICH CASE SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL AND OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED IN THAT REGION. ALTERNATIVELY TSTMS MAY INITIATE ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NERN OK AND DISCRETELY PROPAGATE SWWD TOWARD DRYLINE...WITH MORE ELONGATED THREAT. IN EITHER EVENT...DESTRUCTIVELY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...MLCAPE EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG. THOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK -- I.E. 25-35 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER -- STORM-SCALE PROCESSES MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY. TORNADO THREAT IS NONZERO BUT IS ALSO SECOND-ORDER COMPARED TO WIND AND HAIL. POTENTIAL INVOF MOST OF DRYLINE SHOULD BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIABATIC HEATING AND THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO RELATIVELY NARROW TIME WINDOW -- 21Z-03Z. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. DRYLINE ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL...GIVEN INTENSE INSOLATION AND MIX OF 50S/60S SFC DEW POINT AIR...BUT ANY STORMS SURVIVING EWD SIGNIFICANTLY INTO HIGHER THETAE MOIST SECTOR WILL HAVE 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE. TSTMS INVOF RED RIVER MAY EVOLVE INTO HAIL AND WIND PRODUCING MCS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OR ESEWD DURING EVENING. ...WRN GULF COAST... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY CAPPED SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE FCST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND CONNECTIVE OUTFLOWS RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT DURATION AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH INDIVIDUAL TSTMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS MAY SUPPLEMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF OUTFLOW AND/OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD ROUGHLY 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND BRN SHEAR NEAR 50 J/KG. WIND AND TORNADO THREATS APPEAR TOO CONDITIONAL ON MESOBETA TO STORM SCALE PROCESSES FOR CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK...BUT THERE ARE MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR EACH. ..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 13:01:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 08:01:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405131301.i4DD1Oq11785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131258 SWODY1 SPC AC 131255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BVE 30 E HEZ 60 N HOT 10 WNW UNO 25 S STL DEC 30 SE MLI 30 NW BRL 15 WNW COU 25 SE PNC 25 ENE LTS 35 SSW CDS 40 ENE BGS 55 NNE P07 55 W JCT 15 NNW SAT 30 SSW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 25 WNW BGS 45 SSW LBB 50 NNE HOB 20 W ROW 15 N 4CR 60 SW ALS 35 E CNY 30 S SLC 65 NNE BOI 25 SSE GEG 45 NE 63S 40 ENE CTB 20 WNW GCC 35 NE DGW 45 E CYS 40 WSW IML 50 W EAR 40 ENE BUB 20 SSW FSD 40 SW STC 40 SW DLH 25 NNW ELO ...CONT... 10 ESE SSI 15 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W CENTRAL IL SWD / SWWD INTO OK / TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE UPPER HIGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ATTM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO EJECT EWD / NEWD IN MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF MAIN TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM UPPER MI / WI SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS / LOWER MO VALLEYS INTO WRN OK / NWRN TX. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD WITH TIME...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY REGION OF CENTRAL / S TX. THIS FRONT AND A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD SET UP ACROSS W CENTRAL TX SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PERSIST / MOVE SLOWLY EWD IN WARM ADVECTION REGION ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...SWRN MO SWWD INTO W CENTRAL TX... COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE / TX SOUTH PLAINS ATTM...WHILE OUTFLOW-ENHANCED PORTION OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY SWD. AS STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL OK MOVE EWD...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD COMMENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN OK INTO ADJACENT NWRN TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. WITH MORNING FTW / OUN RAOBS SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK SWWD TO BE INHIBITED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...EXPECT A HEATING-INDUCED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN TX...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LOW / COLD FRONT / DRYLINE. DESPITE ONLY 20 TO 30 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST OVER THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE / VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF WRN N TX / SWRN OK INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE / COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WITH TIME ACROSS OK / NRN AND CENTRAL TX. DESPITE A POTENTIALLY SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THREAT...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AREA AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING FRONT. ...PORTIONS OF IL / MO... ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK OVER THIS REGION...SUFFICIENT SHEAR / INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS W CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL MO WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AT ITS MAXIMUM. ...ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... HAVE ADDED A LARGE AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN / SERN TX EWD ACROSS LA...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX ATTM IN ADVANCE OF MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN / SERN TX THIS MORNING...APPARENTLY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON THE COOL SIDE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER LOWER MS VALLEY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. WITH MODEL FORECASTS AND LATEST VAD / VWP DATA INDICATING MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WHICH VEERS WITH HEIGHT... A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER / LOW LCLS AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES TX...WITH A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING AS FAR EWD AS SERN MS. ..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 13 16:20:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 11:20:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405131620.i4DGK5q22104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131616 SWODY1 SPC AC 131613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PSX 15 NNE SAT 55 NNE DRT 60 NE P07 35 NNE BGS 30 S CDS 35 E CSM 25 E PNC 15 NNE COU 25 NNW BRL 30 NNW PIA 15 ESE DEC 20 SW BLV UNO 60 NW LIT 35 NNW MCB 15 SW BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 50 S LBB 55 WSW LBB 45 NNW HOB 10 W ROW 4CR 35 N 4SL 20 WSW DRO 40 WSW MTJ 25 W GJT 30 SE VEL 40 NE VEL 20 ENE RKS 30 ENE RWL 40 N LAR 45 E CYS 35 ENE AKO 15 SSE MCK OLU 35 ESE SUX MKT DLH 80 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SSI 25 SSW CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS NEWD TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER ROCKIES WILL BE LIFTING NEWD INTO PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO SWRN OK/SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM. A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN PLAINS. LARGE SEVERE MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SCENTRAL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE 40-50 KT LLJ AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SRN BRANCH S/W TROUGH FROM NERN MEXICO. ...SRN PLAINS... ACROSS SRN PLAINS THE MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND E OF W TX DRY LINE. OK AREA IS WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...REF WW 198. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY OF 20 KT...STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THUS LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN DRY LINE AND FRONTAL INTERSECTION WILL BECOME ACTIVE WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...MORE LIKELY IN NWRN TX. THE LARGE MCS OVER SCENTRAL TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY DEVELOP E/SE INTO THE RATHER STRONG 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL SLY JET. SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 30KT AND SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON. BOWING SEGMENTS ADDITIONALLY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND DAMAGE. REF WW 197. ...LOWER MO VALLEY... FURTHER N ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO MID MS VALLEY...MUCAPES WILL RANGE UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS PORTION OF WARM SECTOR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT WHICH SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELL STORMS. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT DURING PEAK HEATING. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW MAINLY W OF COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT/COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER N AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS GREAT LAKES...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF FRONT WILL HOWEVER LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT. ..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 05/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 14 12:57:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 14 May 2004 07:57:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405141257.i4ECvfn29765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141255 SWODY1 SPC AC 141251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JHW 20 SSE HLG 25 SSW PKB 30 N 5I3 10 SE JKL 25 ENE SDF IND SBN 20 NNW GRR 20 SW OSC 90 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 35 NNW SJT 25 NNE TYR 35 NNE HOT 45 SSW STL SPI MMO MKE 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 55 N BML 25 S CON 15 SE HYA ...CONT... 30 E ECG 25 WSW RWI 25 E AGS 40 S CSG 10 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TWF 35 NNW SUN 20 N DLN 25 ESE 3HT 50 N REJ 45 NW PIR 40 SSW 9V9 35 S IML PUB GUC PUC 45 SSW TWF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA... ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES... VORT MAX OVER SW IL THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NNE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY WHILE BROADER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN U.S. MIGRATES SLOWLY EWD. IN THE PROCESS...NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SE MO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD AND EXTEND FROM ERN MI SWWD THROUGH WRN OR CNTRL KY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AND POOR LAPSE RATES PER MORNING RAOB DATA. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM ERN KY...ERN IND...ERN MI THROUGH OH SUGGESTING THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME HEATING TODAY...BUT GIVEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AOB 5.8 C/KM MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL JET FROM 40 TO 50 KT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF IND...OH AND MI. ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY SERVE AS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINES AND SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS HIGHER FROM PARTS OF NRN IND/OH INTO ERN MI WHERE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED. DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...LOWER RIO GRANDE THROUGH S TX... STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF NRN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MIGRATE EWD INTO PARTS OF S AND SW TX WHERE DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR S OF STALLED BOUNDARY. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 05/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 06:07:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 01:07:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405150607.i4F67In29526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150605 SWODY1 SPC AC 150601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... GLS POE GLH DYR OWB CMH CAK ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB HVR GGW OLF ISN 55 N MOT ...CONT... 75 NW CMX DLH FSD EAR HLC AMA INK 75 S MRF ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 45 SSW SAD 45 NW SAD GNT 4SL ALS COS 50 ENE DGW GCC SHR COD JAC OGD 55 W OGD TWF 60 SW BOI 80 E 4LW 50 N SVE 35 NE RBL 40 W MHS MFR 55 ENE BLI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NRN HALF OF CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MEANWHILE...ELONGATED TROUGH NOW OVER AR/LA SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD TOWARD ERN TN AND AL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS...MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...AND STALLING FARTHER SW ACROSS TN VALLEY AND MS DELTA REGIONS. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED GEN TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS WHERE SERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES OVER FRONTAL ZONE...BUT WEAKNESS OF BOTH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE ORE COAST...IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND THEN ENEWD ACROSS WY BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM PERTURBATION EVIDENT OVER NRN ALTA/SASK BORDER IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ND/SASK BORDER...TURNING EWD OVER NRN ND/SWRN MANITOBA BY 16/00Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP DURING DAY OVER SRN SASK/NRN MT AND MOVE SEWD OVER ND. ...MID ATLANTIC...NEW ENGLAND... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM AS DIABATIC HEATING INTENSIFIES DURING DAY...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF BLUE RIDGE AND HIGHLANDS OF ERN PA/UPSTATE NY ...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY AND DELMARVA REGIONS BEFORE WEAKENING. TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND TO VA PIEDMONT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE GENERALLY INCREASES. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS OVER SRN PORTION OF THIS REGION WHERE 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES POSSIBLE AMIDST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS -- AFTERNOON... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AOA 8.5 DEG C/KM ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO...SERN WY AND PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE...AS SFC HEATING COMBINES WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF APCHG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF FOOTHILLS...PALMER/CYS RIDGES AND PERHAPS RATON MESA REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE TSTMS TO PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. WEAK/RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE EMANATING FROM POST-FRONTAL CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO UNDER ABOUT 400 J/KG AND PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC PROCESSES AND SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER ABOUT 01Z. ...ND -- AFTERNOON... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AFTER ABOUT 21Z WHEN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR IS MOST WEAKLY CAPPED BECAUSE OF SEVERAL HOURS OF OPTIMAL DIABATIC HEATING. MUCH LIKE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MLCAPE...DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND FRONTAL LIFT. GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST CELLS...BUT TIME WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SHORT AND COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL USE ONLY MARGINAL WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM. ...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS -- NOCTURNAL... SCATTED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 6Z AS 45-55 KT LLJ STRENGTHENS ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER REGION. A FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HAIL...AMIDST GROWING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION...BEFORE END OF PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT WILL INCREASE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. PRIND PARCELS WILL REACH LFC WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES IN 300-800 J/KG RANGE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN CAPE-BEARING LAYER OF ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO ROTATE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 12:56:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 07:56:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151255.i4FCtvo17143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151253 SWODY1 SPC AC 151250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 40 S JMS 35 NNW MBG 15 SSE DIK P24 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX CKV 40 NW LEX 25 WSW CMH 10 NNW CAK ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 55 SW GGW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 25 ENE BIE 20 N HUT AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 45 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND... ...ND... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE ESEWD TODAY INTO SRN MANITOBA AND EXTREME NRN ND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ALOFT (-23C AT 5 KM) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL (MLCAPE BELOW 800 J/KG) OWING TO LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MOST OF THE DAY BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ND. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR MODES AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN QUEBEC SWWD THROUGH ERN OH...CNTRL TN AND MS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH BREAKS FOR MANY AREAS TO RECEIVE SURFACE HEATING WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIANS. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE U.S. LEAVING WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST FLOW OVER THE WARM SECTOR. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS TO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...SE NM AND SW TX... ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS SW TX INTO SE NM. ATMOSPHERE MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...VEERING PROFILES FROM THE SFC-6 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SD... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES THEN CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SE WY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...OWING TO MEAGER INSTABILITY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. OVERNIGHT...MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS EXTREME NRN NEB THROUGH SD. ..DIAL.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 16:27:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 11:27:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151627.i4FGRLo01202@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151625 SWODY1 SPC AC 151622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30 SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. APPEARS PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN PLAINS... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP TODAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 16:30:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 11:30:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151629.i4FGTto02324@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151626 SWODY1 SPC AC 151623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30 SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. APPEARS PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN PLAINS... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP TODAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 16:30:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 11:30:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405151630.i4FGUjo02780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151628 SWODY1 SPC AC 151625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 30 S JMS 40 NNW MBG 40 ESE DIK P24 55 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BOS 20 N PVD 25 WSW GON 10 SSW ISP ...CONT... 20 SSW JFK ABE AVP 30 SSE UCA 15 WNW 3B1 35 ESE 3B1 25 SSE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL GSO CLT 35 NNE MCN VLD GNV MLB ...CONT... 30 WSW 7R4 15 NNW HEZ 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 25 SSE RSL AMA 25 SSW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 15 WSW DUG 50 E SOW 40 WSW 4SL 25 WNW COS 30 WSW DGW 30 S WRL 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 75 NW LOL MHS 35 NNW MFR 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO INTERIOR MAINE WITHIN AN AXIS OF UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE AREA...BOTH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER EWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION INTO SEVERAL SMALL LINES AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. APPEARS PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...NRN PLAINS... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF ND. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE RATHER COLD MID LEVELS /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -26C/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NWRN ND...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP TODAY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WRN ND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD RAPIDLY ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL AS WELL. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WRN EDGE OF RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 DEW POINTS NEAR 12C AT MAF THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LESS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SWRN TX/ERN NM INTO ERN CO/WY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL APPROACH 40 KT...DESPITE THE SEASONABLY WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...DUE TO ELY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER SRN NM AND SWRN TX...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 15 20:12:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 15:12:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405152012.i4FKCOo22133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152009 SWODY1 SPC AC 152006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 25 SSW GFK 25 S JMS 50 NNE MBG 45 SSW BIS 40 ESE DIK P24 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE BOS 15 SW ISP ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 10 WNW TTN 10 NW ABE 10 NNE AVP 45 ENE BGM 20 W MPV 40 N BML 30 W 3B1 20 ENE 3B1 30 NNE BGR 20 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LCH 35 ESE MLU 15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG ...CONT... 15 SE SBY 20 SW GSO 40 NW AGS 30 S MCN VLD GNV MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF 35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 40 W CNK 30 S DDC 30 SSE AMA 25 SW MAF 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 SE FHU 60 E SOW 40 NNW 4SL 60 WSW COS 20 NW DEN 20 E LAR 30 WSW DGW 35 NE RIW 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 70 NE SVE 55 NNW SVE 20 NNE MHS 40 N MFR 30 SSE SLE 50 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND FAR NW MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...ND/NW MN... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MT. AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES SEWD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS EXPANDING ACROSS NCNTRL ND AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS ND. A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT BUT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS SD AND SRN ND SHOULD INHIBIT THE SRN DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NRN ND SHOW STRONG VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM -25 TO -27 C AND THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN PA AND SERN NY WHERE MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THIS AXIS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS SERN NY AND CNTRL PA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT WITH THE STORMS. IF SEVERE CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ...NERN NM... MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS W TX EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NM WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S F AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE FAIRLY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...ERN CO... CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OFF THE MTNS OF CNTRL CO AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE CO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS ERN CO...500 MB TEMPS ARE BETWEEN -16 AND -19C WHICH WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER DARK WHEN THE INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 05/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 01:06:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 15 May 2004 20:06:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405160106.i4G165o30526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160103 SWODY1 SPC AC 160059 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW RRT 20 ESE GFK 25 W FAR 45 N ABR 60 NE MBG 30 SSW JMS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX BRD AXN FSD OLU EAR MCK GCK LBL DHT CVS FST 110 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 SE DUG SAD ABQ SAF 50 WSW COS EGE LAR RAP Y22 25 NNW BIS 75 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF GSO SPA ATL 35 S CEW ...CONT... 45 SSE LCH UOX BNA 5I3 BKW EKN 20 ENE EFK HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE 63S MSO DLN MQM IDA PIH 45 S TWF OWY 4LW LMT 20 S PDX 55 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CTY VRB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/EXTREME NWRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD BELT OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW CHARACTERIZES SYNOPTIC UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS EXCEPT SERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN/SWRN MANITOBA TO CENTRAL ND -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD NWRN ONT AND NRN MN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT -- PRESENTLY OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MUCH OF UT/WY BY 16/12Z. AT SFC..COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...DE VALLEY AND WRN VA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD OVER TN/AL/MS. FRONT ARCS NWWD ACROSS OK THEN NWD OVER CENTRAL KS/NEB/DAKOTAS AS WARM FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS ND AND EXTREME SERN MT -- WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MN AND WRN/NRN SD BY END OF PERIOD. ...NERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG SEVERE LIMITS -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF TREE/WIRE DAMAGE -- ARE POSSIBLE. DIABATIC COOLING HAS BEGUN...BUT PRE-STORM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 3Z WITH TEMPS 70S TO LOW 80S F AND DEW POINTS LARGELY LOW-MID 60S F. ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE EVIDENT IN IAD RAOB...WITH ABOUT 500-800 J/KG DCAPE...IN VERY WEAKLY SHEARED KINEMATIC PROFILE. AFTER ABOUT 03Z CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL BECOME NARROWER SPATIALLY AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH CONVECTION APCHG COAST. ...DAKOTAS/WRN MN THROUGH ABOUT 6Z... COLD FRONTAL TSTM BAND OVER ERN ND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN MN BEFORE WEAKENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FARTHER S OVER SERN ND HAVE DISSIPATED...AS SHOULD ACTIVITY FARTHER S ALONG WARM FRONT OVER SD. 00Z ABR RAOB IS STRONGLY CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF SFC WARM FRONT INTO WHICH REMAINING ISOLATED CELLS ARE MOVING. EXPECT WEAKENING OF ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF COLD FRONT...WHILE COLD FRONTAL LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN MN. ...NWRN NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 06Z OVER THIS REGION...AS INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN CONCORDANCE WITH LEE-SIDE/LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IN CO. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ATOP INCREASING HUMIDITY WITHIN 700-850 MB LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN CAPE-BEARING LAYER OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL. ...SRN ROCKIES TO FAR W TX... EXPECT COVERAGE OF TSTMS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER REGION DURING REMAINDER EVENING. INCREASING STABILITY EXPECTED BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS FROM EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 05:53:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 00:53:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405160553.i4G5rio00793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160552 SWODY1 SPC AC 160548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PHP AXN IWD VOK 50 NE ALO HSI 45 SSW EAR DDC 55 E AMA PVW CVS TCC 40 NW IML 30 E AIA CDR 20 S RAP PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E MQT 35 SSW ESC MSN END 70 NW ABI 40 WNW SJT 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 40 SSE DMN 65 NW TCS 30 SSE ALS COS 4FC 35 NE GJT 30 SSW SLC 70 E BNO 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 45 WSW HVR 75 NE BIL BIS FAR 30 NNW HIB 35 NNW ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG FAY 35 WSW FLO 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 60 N BRO 25 N NIR LFK HOT 40 NW EVV UNI LBE 25 SSW EEN BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEB/SD BORDER REGION ENEWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FCST TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...WITH BROAD ZONE OF WLY TO WSWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS. PRINCIPAL FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN ORE. THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO MOVE EWD...REACHING INVOF SERN MT/NWRN SD/NERN WY BY 17/00Z...AND WRN MN/ERN SD WITHIN 12 HOURS THEREAFTER. SOMEWHAT FASTER SPECTRAL PROG WOULD RESULT IN MORE MIDLEVEL FORCING OVER OUTLOOK AREA SOONER...CONTRIBUTING TO EARLIER SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN 00Z ETA/NGM PROGS OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY MEAN FIELDS FROM 21Z SREF GUIDANCE. IN RESPONSE TO APCHG TROUGH ALOFT...SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER CENTAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD INTENSIFY AND FOCUS MORE TIGHTLY OVER CO/NEB BORDER REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS WILL DECELERATE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME WARM FRONT DURING DAY...EXTENDING FROM NRN WI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...SERN SD AND CENTRAL/WRN BORDER SEGMENT OF SD/NEB. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL POSITION MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT FARTHER S BY MORNING CONVECTION OVER NEB/SD BORDER AREA...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ITS N THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WOULD TIGHTEN BAROCLINIC GRADIENT AND PREVENT MUCH NWD MOVEMENT. LEE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM LOW TO FRONT...AND SSWWD ACROSS SERN CO AND EXTREME ERN NM...BY MID-AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD FORM OVER NERN NEB/SERN SD REGION AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN...WHILE FRONT SURGES SEWD AGAIN AS COLD FRONT...OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. ...NEB/SD TO MN/WI... BEST OVERLAP OF SEVERE TSTM INGREDIENTS...PARTICULARLY INSTABILITY/SHEAR/LIFT...ARE FCST INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NEB/SD BORDER REGION...FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES INDICATE A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. THIS CONVECTION AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK NEAR WARM FRONT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MCS OVER SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN/NERN NEB REGION...MOVING ENEWD TOWARD WI WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK. STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIATION OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE INVOF FRONT...AND PERHAPS ALONG SEGMENT OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FRONT SWWD TO LEE CYCLONE. PRIMARY CAVEAT ATTM INVOLVES QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY ONLY 50S F IN WARM SECTOR ADJACENT TO FRONT. STILL...THERE MAY BE NARROW CORRIDOR IN BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LCL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW...IN ENVIRONMENT OF TYPICALLY ENHANCED S-R INFLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY...ENHANCING TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INTERACTING WITH AND/OR MOVING ALONG FRONT. EXPECT ROUGHLY 9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO COUNTERACT LACK OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST S OF FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL MODES WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOW EVOLUTION IN EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 300-500 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER WITHIN THAT PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTING SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS...AND 200-300 J/KG SRH FARTHER S OVER WARM SECTOR. 0-6 KM SHEARS OF 40-50 KT SHOULD BE COMMON. THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE ONLY ONE STEP INCREASE IN EITHER SEVERE HAIL OR TORNADO PROBABILITIES WOULD COMPEL MDT CATEGORICAL RISK INVOF NEB/SD BORDER...WHICH WOULD BE LIKELY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND BETTER SPATIAL CERTAINTY REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION. SUCH AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN A SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOK IF THESE FACTORS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND EWD 50-100 NM ACROSS HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. CAPPING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE...BUT ANY SUSTAINED STORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS...RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...THEY FAVOR STRONGLY DEVIANT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS AS FAR S AS MUCH OF TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...FCST STORM-RELATIVE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-3 KM SRH POSSIBLY IN 200-300 J/KG RANGE FOR CELLS MOVING VARIOUS DIRECTIONS BUT LESS THAN 10 KT. ACTIVITY FROM WRN KS SSWWD -- WELL S OF WARM FRONT -- WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 12:59:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 07:59:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405161259.i4GCxmo29300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161256 SWODY1 SPC AC 161253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LSE EAR 50 NW CDS 30 E CVS 10 NW TCC 40 SE SNY 25 SW BFF 30 NW CDR 40 NW HON 40 SSW DLH 50 NE EAU LSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N BRO 25 N NIR LFK HOT 40 NW EVV UNI LBE 10 NW RUT 25 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG FAY 35 WSW FLO 10 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 WSW HVR 75 NE BIL BIS 35 ESE JMS 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 65 E MQT 35 SSW ESC 25 W JVL 15 WNW STJ 30 NNE P28 30 SSE BGS 20 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 35 WNW ONM 50 W RTN 20 NW COS 4FC 35 NE GJT 35 SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...NEB AND SD THROUGH NW IA...MN AND WI... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MN SWWD TO NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER. NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SRN PORTION WILL STALL TODAY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW WIDESPREAD HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER CO WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER UT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S SUGGEST THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SD. SOME THREAT FOR HAIL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. TIMING WRN EDGE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SUGGESTS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO...WY...NEB AND KS WILL BEGIN TO RECEIVE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING BY MID AFTERNOON. THE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP MIXING IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE EWD INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AS THEY CONTINUE EWD...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED SUPERCELL MODES...DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPDRAFTS SUGGEST STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO CNTRL NEB/S CNTRL SD BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAINLY N OF THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS NWD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATING A SURFACE BASED STORM THAT CAN TRAVEL EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP IN WARM SECTOR...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH. ...ERN CO....WRN KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM ERN CO/ERN NM...SPREADING INTO WRN KS...W TX AND THE OK PANHANDLES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 16:34:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 11:34:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405161634.i4GGYio04456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161632 SWODY1 SPC AC 161629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF ROW 55 SSE RTN 25 WNW LAA 30 S BFF 20 N CDR 30 NNE ATY 65 ENE STC 30 N EAU 15 WNW LSE 25 E FOD 30 WSW LNK 25 ENE GCK 15 SSE LBL 15 ESE PVW 15 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 50 WSW HVR 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 60 SW JMS FAR 45 ENE BJI 25 ENE INL ...CONT... 35 WNW ANJ 45 S ESC 25 W JVL 20 NE STJ 30 NNE P28 50 S CDS 15 SW ABI 45 SSW BWD 15 WNW AUS 15 E CLL 25 NNE LFK 20 S LIT 30 NW EVV UNI 15 N MRB 20 SSE NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX 40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... 20 ESE CRP 65 W COT ...CONT... 35 WSW ELP 15 N ONM 40 NW RTN 30 WNW COS 15 SSW 4FC 35 NE GJT 35 SSW BPI 40 WNW BOI 40 SW PDT 30 NE PDX 20 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. LOSES AMPLITUDE AND EJECTS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEB BY LATE TODAY. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR SNY IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN...WITH INCREASING SLY FLOW ESTABLISHING A WARM FRONT NEWD INTO SERN SD/SRN MN DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION...A DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER INTO FAR ERN NM/SWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN LLJ LATER TONIGHT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...SHIFTING A COLD FRONT SSEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... SLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD. OTHER STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NEB ALONG ERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD NEWD INTO NERN NEB ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS FURTHER ENHANCING THE HAIL THREAT. THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT NE-SW ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ALONG WRN EDGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD. STRONG CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN BREAKING CAP ACROSS SWRN NEB/FAR WRN KS BETWEEN 20-22Z...SUPPORTING RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS MAY LIMIT ANY PERSISTENT TORNADO POTENTIAL TO AREAS NEARER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB/SRN SD... POSSIBLY AS AN ORGANIZED LINE/BOW ECHO...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND TRANSITION INTO A LARGE HAIL THREAT AFTER 03-04Z ACROSS THE MID MO AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME LIKELY ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRY LINE INTO SERN NM/SWRN TX BY THE EARLY EVENING...AS STRONG HEATING AND MODEST MOISTURE OVERLAP. WEAK MCV SLOWLY DRIFTING EWD ACROSS SWRN TX MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER NORTH /ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/...WLY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT. THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS DRY LINE RETREATS AND BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE VA TIDEWATER... WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY... WITH WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PERSISTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF VA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THIS FRONT...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 16 20:07:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 15:07:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405162007.i4GK73o15765@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162003 SWODY1 SPC AC 162000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 40 SE LIC 15 SW SNY 25 WNW AIA 35 NE CDR 20 SE PHP 35 NNE ATY 10 WSW STC 25 ENE MSP 35 N RST 30 SSE RST 45 WSW ALO 55 ESE OMA 25 WSW BIE 30 N RSL 45 WSW RSL 20 WSW DDC 25 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP 50 NNE PSX 50 NE LFK 45 N GLH 15 N LOZ 25 WSW EKN 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE NEL ...CONT... 30 ESE ECG 15 E FAY 30 SW FLO 20 NNW SAV 15 WNW JAX 40 E GNV 15 SE VRB ...CONT... ELP 45 SSE ALS 50 N ALS 20 WNW CAG 25 SSE SUN 50 NNW BNO 10 S DLS 20 WSW SEA 20 NW BLI ...CONT... 25 N CTB 25 NNW GTF 15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25 WSW HIB 30 NE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 20 NE MTW 40 SSE OSH 15 NW MLI P35 25 NNE HUT 35 SSW P28 40 NW ABI 25 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS/NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SW MN THROUGH SE SD INTO NRN NEB WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB AND ERN CO. A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB WHERE UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO ALL OF THE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPAND SWD AS THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR NW KS BUT SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED FARTHER EAST. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THE JET WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG. BECAUSE OF THIS...A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. STILL SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...AND A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS...W TX AND ERN NM AS THE CAP WEAKENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A SOLID LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN SD...CNTRL NEB AND NW KS THIS EVENING...MOVING EWD INTO SE SD...ERN NEB...FAR IA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP OFF. ...VIRGINIAS/NC... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN VA. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND THIS WILL SUSTAIN A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXIST AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 05/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 01:11:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 16 May 2004 20:11:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405170111.i4H1BRo25779@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170109 SWODY1 SPC AC 170106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE RST 30 NE MHK 40 NE DDC 40 SSW DDC 20 N EHA 55 S GLD 10 N HLC 30 NE ANW 15 ESE ATY 30 N MSP 35 N RST 20 SSE RST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CTB 25 NNW GTF 15 E 3HT 40 ENE BIL 55 NNW REJ 55 NNE MBG 40 ESE FAR 25 WSW HIB 30 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 SSW WAL 40 SW RIC 30 NNE SOP 15 W AGS 60 N AYS 25 SE VLD 10 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SE CRP 50 ENE CRP 50 NNE PSX 25 WSW LFK 55 NNE LIT POF 15 NE CRW 35 WSW ILG 30 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W ANJ 30 NE MKE 25 NE MKC 10 ENE GAG 30 W DHT 20 NE TAD 25 NNW LIC 25 NW FCL 25 SSE RIW 40 WNW IDA 30 SSW PDT 25 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/MO VLY NEWD INTO UPPER MS VLY... MESOANALYSIS PLACES 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NCNTRL NEB WITH A WARM FRONT NEWD INTO CNTRL MN AND A DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO SWRN NEB/WRN KS. NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS...A FEW TORNADIC...CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER CNTRL/NERN NEB. THESE STORMS RESIDE IN AN ENVIRONMENT RICH IN LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...LOW LCLS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS. FARTHER SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE MOSTLY EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR FORWARD PROPAGATING SEGMENT FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO NCNTRL KS...MOVING 260/45-50 KTS. TAIL END OF THE OUTFLOW/DRYLINE INTERSECTION OVER WCNTRL KS HAS BEEN FOCAL POINT FOR ANOTHER TORNADIC SUPERCELL. UPSTREAM 00 UTC KDDC SOUNDING EXHIBITING A LARGE LOOPY HODOGRAPH AND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY. THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB VCNTY THE WARM FRONT. EVOLUTION INTO LEWPS/BOWS IS LIKELY AS NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND COLD POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...50-60 KT SLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS/S THAT WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN MN AND IA OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. MEANWHILE...50-60 KT LLJ WILL REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO E-W ORIENTED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE MCS GRADUALLY MOVES SSEWD. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 06:05:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 01:05:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405170605.i4H65Lo05302@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170603 SWODY1 SPC AC 170600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLE 40 SW SZL 25 SW ICT LBL 20 E COS 45 SSW DGW 10 WSW CDR 30 ESE AIA 20 NE GRI 25 ESE MCW 50 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 15 NE GSB 30 SW FAY 10 SSE CAE 20 E AGS 45 NNW SAV 20 E SAV ...CONT... VRB 50 ENE FMY 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 10 ESE CRP 45 N VCT 25 WNW CLL 45 SE DAL 40 SE MLC 15 NE HRO 55 SSW STL 10 W ALN 25 NE SGF 25 WSW JLN 20 WSW PNC 35 ENE GAG 35 W GAG 45 NNW CDS 55 ESE LBB 10 ESE BGS 10 S P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 ESE TCC 40 NNE CAO 30 NNE EGE 45 ENE VEL 45 NW PUC 55 NNE ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 35 WSW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 NNW RAP 40 SSE PHP 50 SSW MHE 40 WNW RWF BRD 30 NNW ELO ...CONT... 30 NW PBG 30 W ALB 20 NE ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WSWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY. UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE ERN PAC BASIN WILL SWING SEWD INTO NRN CA AND ORE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLYS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND GRTLKS. ONE IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM THE ERN DAKS EARLY MONDAY TO THE NRN GRTLKS MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM UPPER MI-NRN WI-CNTRL MN EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE PROGRESS EWD DURING THE DAY IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH. BUT...TAIL END OF SAME FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VLY...CNTRL PLAINS AND ERN CO. TO THE EAST...A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO THE GRTLKS... MONDAY MORNING LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND NRN GRTLKS. AIR MASS ALONG SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION FROM SRN/ERN IA INTO CNTRL/SRN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT FAVORABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING TSTMS CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY COULD REACH AS FAR NE AS LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS NRN ILL AND NRN IND DURING MONDAY EVENING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS DIURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE. ...LOWER MO VLY WWD TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING CLOUDS/TSTMS AS A SLIGHT REBOUND IN HEIGHTS OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY AFTERNOON...THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL KS TOWARD THE LWR MO VLY. PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP AND ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LWR MO VLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS WILL THEN LIKELY BACKBUILD/DEVELOP WWD ALONG THE FRONT TO TRIPLE POINT OVER WCNTRL/SWRN KS BY EVENING. OTHER TSTMS COULD FORM IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN PARTS OF CO/WY. LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITHIN THE THERMAL RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN KS. DURING THE EVENING...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND MOVE EWD INTO NRN MO AND ERN KS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE MCS MAY FORM ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE ENEWD INTO PARTS OF NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT MONDAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ...OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN THE OH VLY AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONGEST-LIVED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FAVOR THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS COULD ROTATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN CA/ORE... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN CA/ORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN NRN CA AND ORE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR COULD RESULT IN LONGER LIVED...ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY GIVE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...ENOUGH FOR A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT. ..RACY/BRIGHT.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 13:03:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 08:03:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405171302.i4HD2io02585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171300 SWODY1 SPC AC 171257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW BUF 30 ESE FDY 40 SSE SPI 40 WSW CNU 20 NE EHA 25 NNE PUB 35 S LAR 40 NNE LAR 20 SW IML 35 ESE GRI RST 25 W ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 50 ENE FMY 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 15 NE GSB 30 SW FAY 10 SSE CAE 20 E AGS 45 NNW SAV 20 E SAV ...CONT... 30 NW PBG 30 W ALB 20 NE ISP ...CONT... 10 ESE CRP 45 N VCT 25 WNW CLL 45 SE DAL 40 SE MLC 15 NE HRO 55 NNW POF 25 WSW BLV 20 WNW SGF 25 E BVO 20 WSW PNC 40 ENE GAG 25 SW GAG 45 NNW CDS 55 ESE LBB 10 ESE BGS 10 S P07 ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 ESE TCC 40 N CAO 15 ENE ASE 45 ENE VEL 45 NW PUC 55 NNE ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 35 WSW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 SSE REJ 45 SSE PHP 50 SSW MHE 40 WNW RWF BRD 30 NNW ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...THROUGH CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...... ...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TODAY IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH MN. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SW MN SWWD TO SW NEB WILL MOVE SWD AND EXTEND FROM CNTRL IA...SE NEB SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS THEN NWWD INTO ERN CO BY MID AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM A LEE LOW IN SW KS. THESE BOUNDARIES...AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. WARM SECTOR SHOULD DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM EXTREME SRN NEB THROUGH MUCH OF KS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN NEB SWWD INTO KS. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH STORMS TRAVELING EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH PARTS OF KS. OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORTED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. FARTHER W OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN CO INTO SERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DEVELOPING MOIST ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... MORE ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AS SURFACE HEATING...DEEP MIXING AND CONVERGENCE WEAKEN CAP. THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO SRN CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL ADVECT NEWD WITH TIME...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING...CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...MID ATLANTIC AREA... SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS WITHIN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE WEAKER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL CONVECTION. EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...OR AND THROUGH EXTREME NRN CA... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE CASCADES SUPPORTED BY DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 17 20:03:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 15:03:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405172003.i4HK38o16299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171959 SWODY1 SPC AC 171956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW CLE 20 W SPI 30 SW CNU 30 NNW GAG GCK 45 N LAA 35 SE LIC 50 ENE LIC 40 ESE GLD 10 WNW LNK MCW EAU 15 ENE MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 35 SSE REJ 40 SSW PHP 50 SSW MHE 30 ENE FSD 30 NE MSP 30 NE IWD ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 10 SSW BTV 30 WNW ALB 15 W ISP ...CONT... 25 NE ECG RDU CLT AHN 15 E MCN 60 SE MCN AGS 20 SSE FLO 20 NE OAJ HSE ...CONT... 35 N MLB 25 SE AGR 55 SSW MIA ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP ALI 15 ENE NIR CLL 40 SE MLC FYV 35 WSW UNO SGF JLN BVO PNC 40 ENE GAG GAG CDS 45 SE LBB BGS 60 E FST 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 45 SSE LVS RTN 15 ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 45 NW PUC 45 N ENV 45 WNW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.... ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM...WHICH EMANATED FROM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/NORTHWESTERN U.S...CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS RAPIDLY SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN ITS WAKE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING WAVE/CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS SUPPORTING A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. EVOLUTION OF SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPS/PROPAGATES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEBRASKA. SYSTEM IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MODELS SUGGEST FORCING WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FRONT CURRENTLY TRAILS FROM ONTARIO SURFACE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF IT NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF FRONT...FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THIS SPREADS ACROSS UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...MODELS SUGGEST EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY AROUND 18/03Z. 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ACTIVITY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN... WHERE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO MERGING SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS BEST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...AND AREA OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTHWEST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE RUSSELL/ CONCORDIA AREAS BY 18/00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET NOSING INTO/ THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND FORCING ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THIS OCCURS... PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM LARGE HAIL TO OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOLS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET. ..KERR.. 05/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 01:11:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 17 May 2004 20:11:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405180111.i4I1BWo10372@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180106 SWODY1 SPC AC 180103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW JHW 30 N PIT 30 NNE ZZV 15 WNW LAF 15 SW SPI 30 SW CNU 30 N GAG 20 NW EHA 40 S LHX 10 S PUB 25 WSW LIC 35 ESE LIC 50 SSW GLD 45 SW HLC 25 S BIE 50 SW FOD 35 SSE CWA 10 SSE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 WSW PGO 60 NNW LIT 35 WSW UNO 15 ESE SGF 45 WNW FYV GAG CDS 45 SE LBB BGS 60 E FST 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 40 SW ROW 45 SSE LVS RTN 15 ENE ASE 50 ESE VEL 45 NW PUC 45 N ENV 50 WSW OWY 35 SE RBL 35 NNW UKI EKA ...CONT... 65 WNW HVR 45 N BIL 45 W 4BQ 40 E 81V 65 E CDR 30 E OFK 10 SW RST 15 WNW CWA 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 NE EFK 10 SSW BTV 30 WNW ALB 15 W ISP ...CONT... 20 E ECG 30 W GSB 40 N SAV 35 S AYS 50 NW ORL 30 NNE FMY 20 S FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...IA/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY EWD TO GREAT LAKES REGION... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN WI TO SRN IA INTO CENTRAL KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT WHILE SECOND TROUGH MOVES ESEWD TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IL/SRN IA BY 12Z. WSWLY LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AT 35-40 KT FROM THE IA/MO BORDER TO SRN LOWER MI AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN IA TO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/ NRN IND/FAR NWRN OH BY 12Z. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO KS AREA... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM WRN TX/WRN OK TO 50 KT OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN...MOVES TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES. 35 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP STRONG LLJ WILL SUPPORT AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN-CENTRAL KS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS KS AS THE LLJ VEERS. ...GULF COAST STATES NEWD TO OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION... ONGOING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS TO SRN PA/MD/VA ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/ STABILIZES. UNTIL THEN...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 06:23:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 01:23:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405180623.i4I6NQo01577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180621 SWODY1 SPC AC 180618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HUL 15 WSW PVD 20 WSW DOV 45 ESE PKB 10 SW EVV HRO 20 W GAG 10 WSW EHA 15 WNW LAA 10 NW DEN CPR 15 NE COD 35 NNE BIL 25 SSE GGW 45 ENE ISN DVL 45 S JMS 30 NNE 9V9 OFK 10 WSW LWD 15 S MMO 15 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MLB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 30 SSE AUS 50 ENE ACT 30 SW PRX 35 S MLC 45 E OKC 35 NE CSM 20 NW AMA 35 NE TCC 30 S RTN 50 E GUC 35 SW MTJ 30 W 4BL 40 SSW BCE 65 NNE P38 30 N ELY 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA ...CONT... 30 W RRT 25 E FAR 25 E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST SWWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS/DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DEVELOPING SWD TO OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVES EWD TO THE NORTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEAST TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC REACHING FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SWWD TO WRN NY AND CENTRAL OH BY 00Z...AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OH VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SWD THIS MORNING ACROSS IND TO MO...AS IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD...REACHING A LINE FROM SWRN KS TO WRN OK SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ERN MT. ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO OH VALLEY... 30-40 KT WSWLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES WITH LOWER-MID 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS FAR NEWD AS WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PA MAY INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN PA/NJ THIS MORNING AS THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AREA DESTABILIZES WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND TO NY AND NRN/WRN PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 40-50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. 30-45 KT OF WLY 850 MB FLOW WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH HAIL A THREAT AS WELL. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN IND THIS EVENING... GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS AREA WITH A THREAT FOR MULTI-CELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ...KS EWD MID MS VALLEY... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN UT...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE IT WEAKENS IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN KS THIS MORNING. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES INDICATE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS/DEVELOPS EWD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN KS INTO NRN MO/SRN IA LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS THIS EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KS SUPPORTING STRONG WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS WITH THE WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT EWD WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. MOST OF CENTRAL/WRN KS INTO NWRN OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TODAY PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND DRY LINE. HOWEVER...IF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES CAN BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND FAR NRN OK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES AND/OR CATEGORICAL RISK...IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LIKELY. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO DAKOTAS/NEB... SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THIS SELY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER 50 SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT BY 00Z AND AROUND 60 INTO ERN WY. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN CO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY NWD TO ERN WY/SERN MT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SLY LLJ INCREASES TO 50 KT SUPPORTING A WAA REGIME OVER THIS AREA. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES TO TN VALLEY... MARGINAL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING PULSE-TYPE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING ISOLATED WET-MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 16:41:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 11:41:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405181641.i4IGfKo23874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181636 SWODY1 SPC AC 181633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 30 SSW EKN 20 ENE SDF 15 E CGI UNO 20 NNW HRO 20 ENE BVO 35 ESE P28 30 NW P28 25 E RSL 15 ENE MHK 15 NW SZL 30 S OTM 45 SSE CGX 30 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE WRL 30 ESE IDA 45 S 27U 60 S MSO 40 E LWT 35 E SDY 55 NNE BIS 30 SSE JMS 30 WNW HON 40 S 9V9 35 NNW LBF 45 SSW IML 40 E LIC 30 NNE COS 35 SSE SHR 25 NE WRL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RRT 25 E FAR 25 E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC ...CONT... 25 N MLB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 35 SE AUS 50 N CLL PRX 25 ESE MLC 30 SW TUL 25 SW END 40 NNW CDS 40 W AMA 30 NNW LHX 10 SW 4FC 40 N GJT 20 NNE CNY 60 SW PUC 30 W U24 50 S ENV 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUL 25 SSW CON ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE PAC NW EJECTS NEWD AS AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MORE SUBTLE...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW SUPPORTING MCS OVER MO WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY. ...OZARKS ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... TAIL END OF MCS IS BEING FED BY STRONG SWLY LLJ ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. THIS JET AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z-21Z...BEFORE BACKING TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO NERN OK/NWRN AR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...WITH THE THREATS OF HAIL/STRONG WINDS AS HEATING DESTABILIZES WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MO...TO THE SOUTH OF COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS NRN IND/IL /REFERENCE SWOMCD 736/. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ATTM...ACTIVITY IN MO IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /40-50 KT AT 6KM ON AREA VWP AND PROFILERS/. THIS SUGGESTS SHEAR AHEAD OF COLD POOL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY BETWEEN 18Z-20Z NEAR THE MID MS RIVER...AND ALONG COLD FRONT FROM OH INTO CENTRAL IND...WITH SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING EWD BETWEEN THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND... INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPES BY THE MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FROM PA NWD AS MID LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS NRN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM CLUSTERS/SMALL LINES WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE LESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/NRN CHESAPEAKE TODAY...STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS OVER SRN MT TODAY. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN ID INTO SWRN/SRN MT TO SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP. UPSLOPE/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY INTO ERN CO/ERN WY AND INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN WY/CO...ANY STORM WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS AS THEY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB AFTER DARK ALONG INCREASING SLY LLJ. ...KS/WRN MO... SEVERE THREAT REMAINS COMPLICATED ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS PUSHES SWD INTO SERN KS/CENTRAL MO...AND MERGES WITH COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. THOUGH CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...LLJ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND ERN OK...WHICH WILL BACK TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION. ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE OF STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 18 20:09:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 15:09:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405182009.i4IK9Qo15351@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182005 SWODY1 SPC AC 182002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 30 SSW EKN 20 ENE SDF 15 E CGI UNO 20 NNW HRO 20 ENE BVO 35 ESE P28 30 NW P28 25 E RSL 40 SW FNB 15 ENE STJ 30 NE IRK 45 SSE CGX 20 ESE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE WRL 30 ESE IDA 45 S 27U 60 S MSO 40 E LWT 35 E SDY 55 NNE BIS 30 SSE JMS 30 WNW HON 40 S 9V9 35 NNW LBF 45 SSW IML 40 E LIC 30 NNE COS 35 SSE SHR 25 NE WRL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI 35 SE AUS 50 N CLL PRX 25 ESE MLC 30 SW TUL 25 SSW END 40 ENE GAG GAG 25 ESE CDS 20 ESE P07 30 WSW P07 30 NW FST 30 NE PVW 30 N LHX 10 SW 4FC 40 N GJT 20 NNE CNY 60 SW PUC 30 W U24 50 S ENV 15 SSW EKO 30 WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA ...CONT... 30 W RRT 50 SW BJI 25 E OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC ...CONT... 25 N MLB 25 WNW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUL 25 SSW CON ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...WRN NEW ENGLAND/NY SWD TO MID ATLANTIC AREA... SRN PERIPHERY OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE NERN STATES WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAVE PROVEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS OVER WRN/NRN NY STATE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 750-1000 J/KG AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING CELLS...THOUGH MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUSTENANCE OF A SUPERCELL THREAT. OTHERWISE...IF TSTM CLUSTERS CAN BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...SMALL SCALE BOWS/LEWPS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. FLOW IS BACKED IN THE HUDSON RVR VLY...AND IF A SUSTAINED TSTM CAN DEVELOP...THE GREATEST BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HUDSON RVR VLY. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE...CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARIES AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CAP ARE SUPPORTING TSTM CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER NORTH WITH STERLING/CHARLESTON WV VWP SHOWING MIDLEVEL FLOW AOB 20 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H5 TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY ARGUE FOR MORE PULSE-TYPE SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT REGION IS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WLYS...PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW AND WEAK CAP...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY TSTM THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. ...MIDWEST/OH VLY... LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THIS AFTERNOON. LEADING EDGE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS HAS REGENERATED OWING TO HEATING AND REGIONAL CONVERGENCE BENEATH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO BOWS AND LEWPS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL/IND AND PARTS OF KY/OH LATER TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH /30-35 KTS/ TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED FROM OVERNIGHT KS MCS HAS STALLED ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND COULD RETREAT TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IN CNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS AND DEEPER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...A SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS AND UNLESS THERMAL RIDGE CAN BEGIN DEVELOPING NEWD...CINH MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTM INITIATION. THUS... PARAMETERS ARE NOT CONVINCING ENOUGH TO BUY INTO 18Z RUC2 SOLUTION OF INITIATION ACROSS SCNTRL KS. NONETHELESS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE SLIGHT RISK SINCE GIVEN A STORM... KINEMATICS/THERMODYNAMICS WOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT...AGAIN IF TSTMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE ID AREA TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH COLD POCKET ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF ID. THESE TSTMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF BRIEF ORGANIZATION GIVEN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STORMS MOVE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ID...HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...AS THE WAVE MOVES NEWD...LLJ WILL LIKELY ADVECT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S. THESE WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. REF SWOMCD 743 FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER SWRN TX TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SEVERE WINDS. A TSTM THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED...ALONG WITH LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE. ..RACY.. 05/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 01:02:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 18 May 2004 20:02:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405190101.i4J11uo16832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190059 SWODY1 SPC AC 190056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BIL 40 E LWT 45 ESE ISN 50 NW JMS 20 N ABR 15 NNW 9V9 50 NE AIA 45 SSW IML 25 E LIC 20 ENE DEN 55 SW GCC 15 SSE BIL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 35 NNE SSU 30 SE SDF 40 N DYR 15 S UNO 30 WNW HRO 15 E BVO 35 ESE P28 35 NW P28 10 NNE HSI 20 WSW FNB 30 SW P35 35 WSW BRL 45 SSE CGX 30 E TOL ...CONT... 30 WSW ERI 25 SW BGM ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSX 10 ESE CLL 40 WSW TYR 10 E PRX 20 NNE PGO 25 SSW MKO END 50 E GAG 25 ESE GAG 25 SSW LTS 20 ESE P07 30 WSW P07 30 NW FST 30 NE PVW 30 N LHX 10 SW 4FC 20 NE RKS 10 ESE MLD 20 SSW OWY 70 WSW BNO 20 N ONP ...CONT... 30 W RRT 50 SW BJI 25 E OTG 35 ESE FOD 30 WNW MLI CGX 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 20 SW BUF 45 WSW ALB 15 ESE RUT 20 E BML 20 ESE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W HSE 20 S FAY 25 SSE AGS 35 SE TLH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ...OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PA/OH/IND AND IL OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NJ WWD TO SRN OH TO NEAR STL BY 12Z. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD ALONG THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS BECOME CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. FURTHER AIR MASS STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... THOUGH RESIDUAL POCKETS OF MODERATE SBCAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEVERE THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 752. ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED IN SEVERE ACTIVITY...THE WELL ORGANIZED MCV...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL IL...WILL PROGRESS EWD TO OH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL IND TO CENTRAL PA. ...NEB/KS/MO... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MO WWD TO CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...BUT IS CAPPED PER 00Z RAOBS. SWLY NOCTURNAL LLJ IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 40-50 KT ACROSS WRN TX/WRN OK...AND NOSE INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN KS INTO MO...WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING FARTHER NWD INTO SRN NEB. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND STRONG CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL DAKOTAS... ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES /WRN MT/...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. MEANWHILE...SELY 25-30 KT SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NEB NWWD INTO ERN WY/MT HAS RESULTED IN LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN MT AND SWRN ND...AND 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS INTO ERN WY. DESPITE EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS SUPPORTING AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL CO NWD TO SERN MT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADS ENEWD ABOVE MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS PER STRENGTHENING LLJ. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN MT/NWRN WY MAY CONGEAL INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WAA REGIME INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. MCS SHOULD THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...AS THE INCREASING LLJ VEERS TO SLY. 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT ALONG MCS TRACK. ..PETERS.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 06:09:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 01:09:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405190608.i4J68ho10898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190605 SWODY1 SPC AC 190602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW YKN 45 N ATY 20 NW AXN 30 NW RWF 25 NNW FRM 10 SSE MCW 15 SW ALO 35 SW OTM 40 NNE FNB 20 SW LNK 20 NNE GRI 50 WSW YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ORF 15 W BLF 25 NE BWG 10 ESE MDH JEF 25 ENE MKC 20 NNE MHK 40 SSW EAR 10 SW LBF 20 ENE PHP 40 NE Y22 50 NNW MOT ...CONT... 35 NNW TVC GRR 45 NNE FWA 35 SSE FDY 20 SSE AOO 25 S JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 S GWO 40 N TUP 15 NNE MKL 20 ESE POF 20 NE JLN 40 SSW EMP 20 WNW HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 20 ESE P07 ...CONT... 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 30 NW SAC 50 SW MHS 35 NE MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW SYR 10 NNE ELM 15 S AVP 15 S BDR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB/ERN SD/SWRN MN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... NERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD TODAY ACROSS ALASKA...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM PACIFIC NW TROUGH TO RETROGRADE SWWD ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ SRN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER CENTRAL MT...WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ND/FAR SRN CANADA AS AN OPEN...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...REACHING CENTRAL ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE SURFACE... A LEE LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN MN...AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL MOVE NEWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REACHING MI/OH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FOCI FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY... PARTICULARLY IN THE PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE EAST...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NERN STATES TO UPPER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD AND BE REPLACED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING. ...LOWER MO/UPPER MS VALLEYS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN SD INTO ND WITHIN MOIST/WAA REGIME TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...SUPPORTING ISOLATED HAIL. NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND SECOND SLY LLJ OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NNEWD. AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /850 MB DEWPOINTS 16-18C BY 00Z ACROSS ERN NEB/...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN SD/ERN NEB INTO IA WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG/ OVER ERN NEB/FAR WRN IA. NNELY RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS NWRN MN AND EWD INTO WI THIS EVENING AND NRN IL OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN WILL RESULT IN STRONG WLY ORIENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45-60 KT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS... ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ONGOING STORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL REDEVELOP AND/OR INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM ERN SD/NERN NEB/WRN IA...WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORT POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS ERN NEB/FAR SERN SD/FAR SWRN MN AND WRN/SRN IA WHERE SHEAR VECTORS FAVOR STORMS REMAINING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S WITH THE THREAT TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT AS THESE COMPLEXES MOVE INTO WI/ERN IA/NRN IL. ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR WRN LOWER MI BY 12Z THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/ERN NEB AND UPPER MS VALLEY AFTER 00Z. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD TO THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY... SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SAG SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WWD TO THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT NEWD ALONG TROUGH IN LEE OF THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. LONG-LIVED MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ERN IND/WRN OH...WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY ENHANCING WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP WLY FLOW WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LINES/BOW SEGMENTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH HAIL. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN OH WWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN HALF OF MO INTO WRN IL. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...A MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE MULTI-CELL STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 12:46:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 07:46:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405191245.i4JCjmo27769@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191243 SWODY1 SPC AC 191240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FNB 35 WSW LNK 20 N GRI 65 W YKN 10 NE HON 40 NE ATY 35 NE RWF 30 SE MKT 25 W ALO 35 W OTM 35 NE FNB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ 10 SSE GRR 20 ENE FWA 10 NNE CMH 30 S HLG 20 SE ACY ...CONT... 25 E ECG 30 ENE TRI 25 SSW CGI 20 N SGF 45 SSW EAR 45 NW BBW 15 SSW BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 10 NNE ERI 10 SSE ELM 10 W MSV 25 SSW GON ...CONT... 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... --POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY-- ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WLY FLOW /I.E. 40-50KTS AT 500MB/ ACROSS NEB AND IA...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER WRN OH WILL PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE DELMARVA REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS ND TODAY...PRIOR TO WEAKENING OVER SWRN ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOW SWWD THROUGH ERN SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB BY 20/00Z. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT OVER KS HAS ALREADY STARTED A NWD RETREAT THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM INTERSECTION WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER S-CNTRL/SERN SD SEWD ACROSS NERN NEB INTO CNTRL OR SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NWD RETURN OF THAT PORTION OF FRONT OVER MO MAY BE SLOWED BY ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL MO...MAKING FUTURE LOCATION ACROSS IA MORE UNCERTAIN. FARTHER E...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL SAG SWD TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WITH WWD PORTION NEAR THE OH RIVER BY AFTERNOON. ...NRN PLAINS/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION BAND EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD TODAY INTO MN ALONG AXIS OF PERSISTENT 30-40KT SSWLY LLJ. THOUGH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED...DECREASING STABILITY WITH TIME AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWD ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...AS WELL AS SEWD ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN/CNTRL IA. THOUGH MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RAPID NWWD ADVECTION OF STRATUS BENEATH SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. EXPECT MLCAPES TO APPROACH 1000-2500 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...WITH VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NEB WITH MLCAPES REACHING 3500-4000 J/KG. SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE COLOCATED WITH WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SEWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND /MORE SO/ EVENING HOURS. JUXTAPOSITION OF 45-55KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAVE LONG RESIDENCE TIME ALONG JUST N OF WARM FRONT OVER SERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. ...DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN KY/WV EWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO S OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30KTS AT 500MB WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG SRN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER W...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER MO INTO SRN IL MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NWRN/CNTRL MO INDICATE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 16:42:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 11:42:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405191642.i4JGgao11200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191640 SWODY1 SPC AC 191637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ECG 35 SE BWG 30 NNW SGF 10 ESE HSI 30 SE SNY 20 WNW AIA 35 N PIR 45 N MOT ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 40 SSE ESC 30 SSW MSN 40 SW RFD 25 SSW MMO 10 WNW LAF 25 NNW DAY 30 SSE HLG 20 SE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE ERI 10 SSE ELM 10 W MSV 25 SSW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO VA... ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... STRONG IMPULSE NOW EJECTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ENEWD AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS AND SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY NWD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN ND TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST/FOG WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE ERN NEB/ERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY BREAK UP AND SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO GREAT THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TO JUSTIFY A MODERATE RISK /ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK/. HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE FORECASTS WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE PROBABILITIES. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE PLACED UNDER RISING HEIGHTS/ TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THEREFORE IT APPEARS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO ERN ND AND ERN SD/NERN NEB AROUND 21Z...PENDING ON DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES FROM AROUND 20Z-02Z. AFTER WHICH...ACTIVITY WILL RIDE EAST OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ALONG LLJ AXIS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT. TAIL END OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO SYSTEM AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY/CAP GRADIENT ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY WITHIN EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CAP BREAK ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB/SWRN IA. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRENGTH OF CAP SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. ...HIGH PLAINS... DEEP MIXING WITHIN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW CAP TO ERODE AND SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN TX. SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DUE TO THE STRONGER SHEAR. ...VA INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE VA COAST WWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT NWD TOWARDS THE SRN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE RUC/ETA TO SHIFT ACROSS VA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT...A BROAD RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE WEAK CAP AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL /20-30 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...YET WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 19 20:14:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 15:14:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405192013.i4JKDno03669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192010 SWODY1 SPC AC 192007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW ANJ 15 ENE LNR 15 SW DBQ 20 WSW BRL LWD 35 NNE FNB 20 SSE OLU 15 NE ANW 35 NNW VTN 15 ENE PIR 60 NE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE HSE 20 NNE BWG 30 S BMG 10 W CRW 25 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF 35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35 WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ESE OSC 15 N PKB 15 SSE HGR 30 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...NRN PLAINS TO THE GTLKS REGION... FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS CONCERNS AREAS FROM CNTRL ND EWD INTO NWRN MN. MODEST POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE NCNTRL ND/CANADA BORDER ALONG STRONGEST DCVA/SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH INTO CNTRL/ERN ND AND ERN/SRN SD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS PRECEDING CLOUDS ERODE. MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS 60S DEW POINTS SURGE NWD BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS APT TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE NARROW. ...CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VLY EWD TO UPPER MS VLY... 18 UTC SOUNDING FROM KLBF SHOWS THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING NOSING NWD IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND EVEN KOMA BALLOON INDICATED 1-2 DEGREES C WARMING OVER 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY CAP SURFACE BASED PARCELS ACROSS MOST OF NEB SWD THROUGH KS. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE RAPIDLY ALONG THE MO RVR AND ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NWRN IA...INDICATIVE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERMAL RIDGE IS NOSING NWD THROUGH THE MO VLY AND LINES OF CU ARE FORMING JUST NORTH OF THE NEB BORDER AND ALSO WEST OF HURON. CONTINUED HEATING...SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO FORM ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP FROM SRN SD/EXTREME NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS ELEVATED...MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL SD/NERN NEB IN A FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD THEN MOVE ESEWD INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA LATER THIS EVENING. PRIND THAT INITIAL TSTMS MAY BE DISCRETE AND GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO PARTS OF NWRN IA/SERN SD OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THE LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SITUATED E-W OVER CNTRL/SRN VA NWWD INTO KY. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED ALONG SRN PORTION OF THE STRONGER WLYS. IF TSTMS CAN ORIENT BOUNDARIES ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... HIGH BASED TSTMS INITIATED ALONG THE SERN NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS HEATED CONSIDERABLY. THESE TSTMS MAY MIGRATE ENEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 05/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 01:15:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 19 May 2004 20:15:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405200115.i4K1FVH23810@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200113 SWODY1 SPC AC 200110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ANJ 25 ENE MSN 25 SSE MMO 15 W BMI 40 W MLI 45 WSW ALO 35 ENE SUX 35 SSW 9V9 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 45 W TCC 35 SE LHX FCL 35 WSW RWL 40 ESE EVW 20 N EKO 60 NNW SAC 40 WNW UKI ...CONT... 20 N ACV 45 NNE 4BK 40 WNW RDM 45 WNW YKM 65 NW 4OM ...CONT... 15 S APN 20 E BEH 30 NE MIE 25 NE ZZV MRB 30 NE SBY ...CONT... 15 ENE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE GPT 35 SE ESF 40 SSW GWO 25 SW CBM 40 SW HSV 30 NNW HSV 35 N HOP ALN 25 SSW DSM 20 W OLU 35 ESE MHN 45 NW VTN 35 ENE PHP 35 N MBG 40 W BIS 20 WNW DIK 25 SE MLS 60 N SHR 45 ENE COD 30 NW WRL 25 SSW WRL 50 E RIW 35 NW DGW 60 NE DGW 15 W CDR 45 WSW MHN 25 W HLC 40 NNW GAG 45 WSW MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN/UPPER GREAT LAKES... STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WERE TRACKING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS NRN MN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS...SOME TORNADIC...HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NCNTRL AND NERN ND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS HAVE INCREASED ALONG PREFRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN SD IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY ABR 00Z RAOB. WHILE THERE MAY BE A NARROW N-S CORRIDOR ACROSS EXTREME WRN MN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SURFACE-BASED STABILITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WARM FRONT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A ELEVATED HAIL/ISOLD WIND THREAT AS WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS...SUSTAINED BY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING...SPREAD EWD ACROSS MN AND INTO WRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...INTENSE...LONG-LIVED...AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ALONG NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND CAP ACROSS NRN IA. RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST SOME BACKBUILDING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS CONVECTION COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LLJ SHOWING UP ON SLATER IA WIND PROFILER. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF THIS OCCURS LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL IA WOULD SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INITIALLY. HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...AND ONE SUPPORTED BY MOST RECENT ETA/RUC/GFS GUIDANCE...IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AND DEVELOP ESEWD AS AN MCS FROM NERN IA INTO SWRN WI/NRN IL OVERNIGHT. A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF ENVIRONMENT SHEAR. ..CARBIN.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 05:59:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 00:59:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405200559.i4K5x1H24968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200556 SWODY1 SPC AC 200553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 15 NW SYR 15 NW HTS 25 E SDF 15 WSW STL 30 ESE MKC 30 NNE RSL 55 WNW GCK 40 SSE LAA 25 SW LHX 25 S DEN 40 NE DEN 30 WSW MHN 10 N YKN 10 WSW FOD 35 SSW MTW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE AVP 20 ESE HGR 15 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW MOT 70 ENE ABR 40 NW EAU 30 N RHI 130 NE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 SE ONM 45 ESE ABQ 40 NNW LVS 25 ESE ALS 50 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 30 W ASE 20 SSE GJT 35 N CEZ 30 SE BCE 10 ENE MLF 50 SSE ELY 70 WNW P38 40 SSE BIH FAT 20 ESE UKI 30 SE EKA 35 E OTH 20 NW SLE 15 NNE UIL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E PSX 50 NE HOU 30 NNW LCH 45 WNW JAN 20 SE MEM 25 ENE ARG 35 SSE TBN 50 SSE OJC 25 WNW EMP 55 S RSL 40 SE LBL 45 E PVW 25 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH/CNTRL PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID WEST...TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A ZONE OF FAST CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST/GREAT BASIN. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM GREAT LAKES IMPULSE WHICH WILL TRAIL WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND HIGH PLAINS. THE ERN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MIDSECTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...FROM LOWER MI WEST TO THE NEB/KS BORDER...WILL STALL BENEATH SRN EDGE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY BEFORE RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL BACK INTO ERN CO...PROBABLY INTERSECT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER SERN CO. ...MIDWEST/ERN GREAT LAKES... MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI EARLY TODAY WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE. AS CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...ASCENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAINTAIN A BAND OF TSTMS FROM WRN/UPSTATE NY SWWD ACROSS NWRN PA AND INTO OH. THE STORMS ACROSS NY WILL MOVE INTO ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM LOWER MI ACROSS NRN IND AND OH. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY ALONG THE MCS OUTFLOW OVER NRN IND/OH AREAS...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MI. UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE FRONT AND WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL/ORGANIZED MULTICELL ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ETA...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS...HAVE DEVELOPED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS IA/NRN MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORM INITIATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING AND VERY HIGH INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS MO/ERN KS WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREA. ...ERN CO/CNTRL PLAINS... MOIST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM SERN CO/SWRN AND CNTRL KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY HIGH VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ARE FCST COINCIDENT WITH THIS INSTABILITY ON AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN CO ENEWD TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. TSTMS ARE APT TO INITIATE OVER ERN CO AND SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR CELLS INVOF LEE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...AS WELL AS STORMS TRACKING ALONG/NEAR AND ACROSS THE FRONT FROM ERN CO ACROSS NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK AS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER AFTER DAYBREAK. FARTHER EAST...CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS IF HEATING CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION. ERN CO/WRN KS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AND SPREAD NEWD OVERNIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM MEAN WRN TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME BUT A WIND AND HAIL HAZARD COULD DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB/SERN SD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE DURING PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARGINAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 12:47:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 07:47:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405201246.i4KCktH16481@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201244 SWODY1 SPC AC 201241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 15 NNW SYR 20 NNW HTS 25 E SDF 10 N TBN 35 S SZL TOP 30 N RSL 40 SE LAA 30 SSE LHX 15 ESE PUB 15 N COS 20 ESE FCL 40 SE CYS 25 ENE VTN 25 E MHE 35 NW FRM RST 30 W OSH 10 N APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB PIE ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 30 N HOU 50 WSW POE 50 E MLU 40 NNE GLH 65 SSW JBR 40 SE HRO 20 NNE JLN 15 SSW EMP 55 S RSL 40 SE LBL 45 E PVW 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 25 W ELP 35 SE ONM 45 ESE ABQ 40 NNW LVS 25 ESE ALS 50 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 30 W ASE 20 SSE GJT 35 N CEZ 30 SE BCE 10 ENE MLF 50 SSE ELY 70 WNW P38 40 SSE BIH FAT 20 ESE UKI 30 SE EKA 35 E OTH 20 NW SLE 15 NNE UIL ...CONT... 55 NNE DVL 30 SE FAR 60 S DLH 30 N RHI 130 NE CMX ...CONT... 25 SE BOS 20 NNE AVP 20 ESE HGR 15 SSE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH GENERALLY A CYCLONIC...CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NERN STATES. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN ONTARIO/WRN GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/NERN NM. THE FORMER WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE LATTER WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE WWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO BY EARLY EVENING. WRN PORTION OF BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO LIFTING NWD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. ...ERN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE MIDWEST... LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SERN CANADA SHOULD SUSTAIN EWD-MOVING MCS /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI/. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN FEED OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SRN FLANK OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM. WHILE MAJORITY OF MCS MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...SRN FLANK MAY AFFECT LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE INTO WRN NY LATER TODAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW VEERING AND MODESTLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WWD ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AND/OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ONGOING MCS. WRN EXTENT OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY ABILITY OF STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WHICH HAS SPREAD E OF THE MS RIVER PER 12Z ILX SOUNDING. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THAT PART OF INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ DEVELOPING BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM ERN IA EWD/NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ...ERN CO AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY INVOF OF FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE WHERE INTENSIFYING ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND RESULTANT ADIABATIC COOLING OVERCOMES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA IS CURRENT ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE N/NE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP RICHER MOISTURE TO THE E ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH OF 250-300 J/KG SUGGEST THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT... ADDITIONAL TSTMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 16:31:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 11:31:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405201631.i4KGVDe16132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201629 SWODY1 SPC AC 201625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 20 SSE SYR DUJ 20 WSW HLG 40 SSE MIE 35 S UIN TOP 25 SE BIE 35 ENE OMA 30 NNE ALO 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CAO 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD 35 SSE EHA 30 SW CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40 N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 25 NE MKL 10 NNW DYR JBR 35 SSE HRO 20 NNE BVO 20 N BVO 10 SSE P28 15 NW GAG 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 45 SSW LVS 20 SE SAF 35 NNE SAF 45 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 40 W ASE 35 W 4HV 55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 10 ENE MKT 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN PORTION CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... ERN PART OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS KS INTO NERN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE PLAINS PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN IA INTO NERN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST BUT STRONGLY CAPPED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...CAP WILL BE WEAKER FROM ERN IA INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ATOP LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND MOVE EWD INTO IA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA/FAR SERN WI INTO NRN IL/IND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RESPECTABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FORECAST...SUGGESTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE AS STORMS SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI IS MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY... DUE TO EARLY MCS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...MOIST AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS. DESPITE STRONG CAP OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR NWRN MO/NERN KS INTO SRN IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE CAPPING...SEVERE THREAT INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION OF SLIGHT RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL THAN POINTS FARTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES OVER STABLE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE LAYER INTO IA/NRN IL/SRN WI WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER INTO NEB/SD. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ...ERN GREAT LAKES... MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODEST WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LINES/SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE EVENING. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION TODAY...WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY FOR MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY 21Z. PRESSURE RISES WERE OBSERVED OVER ERN CO PLAINS THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A EAST AND THEN SELY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WEAK IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND AID INITIATION BY THE EARLY EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STEERING FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST STRONGER STORMS WILL TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THEY SHIFT NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MIXING WITHIN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO OVERCOME CAPPING ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO ERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION EWD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 20:10:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 15:10:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405202009.i4KK9te15301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202006 SWODY1 SPC AC 202003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MSS SYR BFD 20 WNW HLG 40 SSE MIE 10 NNE UIN 10 NNE P35 50 SE OMA 35 NE OMA 45 SSW ALO 35 E VOK 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CAO 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD 35 SSE EHA 30 SW CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 55 WSW TCC 45 S RTN 15 SW TAD 45 WSW COS 20 ENE ASE 45 W ASE 25 W U28 55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 30 W MSP 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40 N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 20 SW PAH 10 SSW MDH 15 W BLV 30 S UIN 30 ESE STJ 25 WNW SLN LBL 15 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS DEBRIS ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO/NIAGARA AREA. NARROW AXIS OF RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT TSTMS BETWEEN 21-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD WRN NY. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO CNTRL NY OWING TO MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VLY/MIDWEST... ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS EDGED NEWD AS EVIDENCED BY H85-H7 WARMING ON THE DAVENPORT AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUNDINGS. THE H7 TEMPERATURE AT CENTRAL ILLINOIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE ETA SOLUTION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE MID MS VLY AND ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS IA INTO NWRN IL. 18Z RUC40 IS INSISTENT ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN IL BETWEEN 21-00 UTC. COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND 18Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HOT PROD WAS NOSING NEWD TOWARD SCNTRL IA AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE THERE IN A FEW HOURS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHETHER SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATING ELEMENTS THAT COULD REACH AS FAR E AS THE UPPER OH VLY OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS EVOLUTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SINCE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESERVOIR WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VLY. MEANWHILE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI. MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EARLY MORNING MCS...BUT A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI. A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SWD WITH RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ALSO...NRN PERIPHERY OF PROBABLE MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE MID MS VLY MAY GRAZE SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SURFACE FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ERN CO WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S. USING A 74/50 PARCEL YIELDS 1300 J/KG SBCAPE AND WEAK CINH...AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO NEB/SD/IA/SRN MN OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL OUT ON THE PLAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD INTO SWRN KS...CNTRL TX PHNDL...WITH SRN PORTION THEN CURVING BACK SWWD INTO THE SERN NM MOUNTAINS. A FEW CU HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 22Z. ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. FARTHER SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE BEEN ANCHORED ON THE MOUNTAINS OWING TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. CELLS MAY MIGRATE NEWD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..RACY.. 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 20 22:01:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 17:01:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405202200.i4KM0be19682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202157 SWODY1 SPC AC 202154 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 202150Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MSS SYR BFD 20 WNW HLG 40 SSE MIE 10 NNE UIN 10 NNE P35 40 NNW FNB 25 N OMA 45 SSW ALO 35 E VOK 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GLD EHA 40 WNW P07 50 S GDP 65 NE 4CR 25 WNW TAD 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40 N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 30 ENE MKL 20 SW PAH 10 SSW MDH 15 W BLV 30 S UIN 30 ESE STJ 25 WNW SLN LBL 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 60 S LVS 20 WSW RTN 30 W TAD 45 WSW COS 20 ENE ASE 45 W ASE 25 W U28 55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 30 W MSP 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CORN BELT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... AMENDED FOR ADDED SLIGHT RISK IN SRN HIGH PLAINS ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS ERN NM SWRN TX. A FEW TSTMS WILL POSSIBLY MOVE OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REFERENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #223. REST OF DISCUSSION THE UNCHANGED FROM 20Z. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS DEBRIS ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO/NIAGARA AREA. NARROW AXIS OF RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY SUPPORT TSTMS BETWEEN 21-03Z AS THEY MOVE TOWARD WRN NY. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD EWD INTO CNTRL NY OWING TO MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VLY/MIDWEST... ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS EDGED NEWD AS EVIDENCED BY H85-H7 WARMING ON THE DAVENPORT AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUNDINGS. THE H7 TEMPERATURE AT CENTRAL ILLINOIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE ETA SOLUTION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS INCREASING DOWNSTREAM FROM MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING TOWARD THE MID MS VLY AND ACCAS/ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS IA INTO NWRN IL. 18Z RUC40 IS INSISTENT ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN IL BETWEEN 21-00 UTC. COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND 18Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HOT PROD WAS NOSING NEWD TOWARD SCNTRL IA AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS COULD INITIATE THERE IN A FEW HOURS. OTHER MORE ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHETHER SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME WILL ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATING ELEMENTS THAT COULD REACH AS FAR E AS THE UPPER OH VLY OVERNIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...BACKBUILDING/TRAINING MCS EVOLUTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SINCE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESERVOIR WILL BE LOCATED UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VLY. MEANWHILE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI. MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EARLY MORNING MCS...BUT A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI. A FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SWD WITH RISKS OF HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ALSO...NRN PERIPHERY OF PROBABLE MCS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE MID MS VLY MAY GRAZE SRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SURFACE FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ERN CO WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S. USING A 74/50 PARCEL YIELDS 1300 J/KG SBCAPE AND WEAK CINH...AND UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MIGRATE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS COULD ROTATE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO NEB/SD/IA/SRN MN OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL OUT ON THE PLAINS...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREATS. .... 05/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 01:11:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 20 May 2004 20:11:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405210110.i4L1Age27393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210108 SWODY1 SPC AC 210104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW SYR 15 NW PSB 25 NW CMH 20 E CMI 50 ESE OMA 30 ESE GRI 15 SSE IML 35 SSW GLD 30 SSE CVS 25 SSE FST 50 NNW MRF 10 NNE ROW 45 N TCC 15 WNW LAA 25 SE FCL CYS 15 SSW CDR 20 W VTN 25 NNW YKN 30 WNW MCW LNR 25 NE MKE 35 SSW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 20 NNW RTN 20 W DEN 20 E RWL 20 SE RKS 40 WSW VEL 40 E U24 75 SW ELY 30 NW TPH 65 SE TVL 40 NE SAC 40 ENE UKI 45 NW UKI 30 SSE SLE 25 NE SEA 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NW ISN 45 SE GDV 50 SE Y22 40 SSW ABR 25 S EAU 15 SE APN ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 NW EEN 25 SSE HGR 15 N PSK 45 SW BLF 25 SSE JKL 30 ENE SDF 20 SE MTO 20 SSW SPI 20 NW FNB 15 ENE HLC 25 NW GAG 30 WNW LBB 30 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX/ERN NM AND ERN CO...ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST AND ERN GREAT LAKES.... ...MIDWEST/LOWER MI TO ERN GREAT LAKES... FRONTAL CIRCULATION ACROSS SWRN IA HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO BREACH INTENSE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MUCH MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS TAKING HOLD FROM ERN IA TO NRN IL. 00Z DVN RAOB...WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 34KT...IS PROBABLY QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF PREFRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE MS RIVER TO NRN OH. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS IN LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW/GENERALLY WEAK SRH AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE TORNADO POTENTIAL BUT LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE HAZARD SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS SEWD. ...NERN CO/SERN WY TO NEB AND WRN IA (LATE)... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAY LONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING HAS FINALLY RESULTED IN SUPERCELL INITIATION OVER SRN WELD COUNTY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE IN DENVER CYCLONE AND WEAK INHIBITION EXHIBITED ON EVENING RAOB. CELLS WITH ENE MOTION WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HELICITY WITH 0-3KM SRH ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 250 M2/S2. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH LFC AROUND 2KM...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS TO THE EAST OF CO...ACROSS MUCH OF KS...SRN NEB...AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...EITHER ONE OF TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS MAY UNFOLD TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE CAP AND THIS WARRANTS HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB AND IA. 1) ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS CO INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND AN MCS SPREADS NEWD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ON INTENSIFYING LLJ...OR 2) INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT AIDS IN NEW ELEVATED STORM INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP...AND DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL TAP ABUNDANT MUCAPE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ...HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN CO/ERN NM TO WEST TX... PRIMARILY DIURNAL FORCING/HEATING ON THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. A FEW CELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO FEED OFF A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AND COLLAPSING STORMS COULD ALSO BRING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 05:54:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 00:54:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405210555.i4L5tMe01461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210554 SWODY1 SPC AC 210550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSE 15 ENE RWI 15 ENE DAN 45 WSW EKN 35 WNW UNI 15 NE SDF 25 NNW EVV 25 SSW DEC 40 SW OTM 20 N FNB 20 SE RSL 30 S DDC 50 W GAG 50 SSE EHA 25 SSW EHA 55 NE LAA 40 ENE AKO 30 W SNY 35 SSE DGW 40 SW GCC 40 ENE SHR 30 SE MLS 65 NNW REJ 30 SSE Y22 30 S ABR 45 E ATY 25 W MSP 25 NE AUW 15 NNW HTL 60 N MTC ...CONT... 20 NE ERI 20 N PSB 30 E HGR 25 SE DCA 20 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HUM 50 SW CBM 20 N DYR 45 W STL 35 NNE COU 35 NNE SZL 30 NE EMP 15 SE ICT 35 S END 35 ENE ABI 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 55 SW MRF 20 ESE HOB 15 N DHT LAA LIC DEN 25 NE EGE 25 NW GJT 10 WSW U28 50 NNE BCE 25 SSW P38 65 NNE NID 40 ENE MER 35 N UKI 40 NE 4BK 40 NW RDM 20 SE OLM 15 NNE UIL ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 SSE DVL 15 SE CMX ...CONT... 15 W MSS 30 ESE ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WHILE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN BC TO WA...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES... SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL ACT TO FLATTEN LARGE SCALE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST. THESE IMPULSES WILL TRAVEL WITHIN A BELT OF MODEST WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AND ATOP WAVY FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM IA TO SRN WI/LOWER MI TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS. THE WEAKER ERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FRACTURED AND ILL-DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY. ...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC... MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT CENTER IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM INTENSE MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THIS TIME. THIS IMPULSE COULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/WV AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN AID DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS LEE/THERMAL TROUGH OVER ERN VA AND NRN NC. BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL FAVORABLY COINCIDE WITH STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION BUT ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND TIME OF DAY WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. FARTHER WEST...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ETA IS FCSTG CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IND BY 18Z. AGAIN...SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS MULTICELL UPDRAFTS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR WIND AND HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... STRONG MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. IN ADDITION TO STRONG LLJ FEEDING THIS COMPLEX...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED...WILL DRIVE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT FROM IA ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN/WI... AND INTO LOWER MI BY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. THE LEADING PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER ONLY WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...ELEVATED CELLS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WILL BE FUELED BY ABUNDANT INSTABILITY ON THE NRN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING FROM ERN IA ACROSS IL/WI AND INTO LOWER MI. ...PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)... AS IA/MIDWEST STORM COMPLEX MOVES EAST LATER THIS MORNING... INTENSE HEATING AND VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEB TO THE OK PNHDL. SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY ROUNDING BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO EMERGE OVER ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND SHARPENING DRYLINE SWD. DESPITE STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS KS/OK REGIONS OF SLGT RISK...STRENGTH OF SURFACE HEATING...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT COINCIDING WITH DRYLINE CIRCULATION...SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS NEB...WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS WILL ALSO AID STORM INITIATION IN THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-60KT WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH AND INITIALLY FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HIGH LFC WITH SWD EXTENT SUGGESTS HIGH-BASED...POTENTIALLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL. TORNADO HAZARD MAY BE GREATER NEAR THE WARM FRONT ON THE SD/NEB BORDER WHERE LFC WILL BE LOWER AND SRH WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S AND MOVE TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 12:59:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 07:59:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405211300.i4LD04e09832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211258 SWODY1 SPC AC 211255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSE 15 ENE RWI 15 ENE DAN 35 E CRW 45 W UNI 40 WSW DAY 25 N HUF 25 N SPI OTM 20 N FNB 20 SE RSL 30 S DDC 45 WNW GAG 40 SSW LBL EHA 55 NE LAA 40 ENE AKO 30 W SNY DGW 40 SW GCC 40 ENE SHR 30 SE MLS 65 NNW REJ 30 SSE Y22 30 S ABR 45 E ATY 20 S EAU 35 NW OSH MBL 60 N MTC ...CONT... 35 NNW JHW 40 E BFD CXY DOV 20 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MSS BID ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSW HUM 50 SW CBM DYR 45 W STL 35 NNE COU 35 NNE SZL 30 NE EMP ICT 35 S END 35 ENE ABI 30 SE DRT ...CONT... 60 W MRF 25 E CNM DHT LAA LIC DEN 25 NE EGE 25 NW GJT U28 50 NNE BCE 25 SSW P38 65 NNE NID 40 ENE MER 35 N UKI 40 NE 4BK 40 NW RDM 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 40 SSE DVL 15 SE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO TIDEWATER ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WRN CONUS MEAN TROUGH...AND ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGING OVER MOST OF GULF COAST. LONG FETCH OF GRADUALLY ANTICYLONICALLY CURVING FLOW WILL EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN TROUGH -- WITH 250 MB JET AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 4 CORNERS TO BLACK HILLS THEN ACROSS NRN GREAT LAKES TO ERN QUE. WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MAY TRAVEL IN THIS FLOW STREAM AFTER EJECTING FROM BASE OF WRN TROUGH. ONE OF THESE FEATURES -- PRESENTLY OVER IA AND CONTRIBUTING TO SEVERE/ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR MS RIVER -- IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MI BY MID-DAY AND REACH UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS EVENING. MVC ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING PA/WV MCS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS DELMARVA REGION BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 21Z. AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM E-CENTRAL CO AND NWRN KS NEWD THROUGH LOW OVER SERN NEB...EWD ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN INDIANA/NWRN OH. FRONTAL SEGMENT FROM ERN NEB TO INDIANA SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH TODAY AS WARM FRONT...BUT WITH SOME DELAY OVER WI/IL/LM AREA BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW EFFECTS FROM ONGOING MS VALLEY MCS. FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE EWD ACROSS PA/NJ. FRONT ALSO SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY -- AMIDST BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL SLYS AND E OF DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN CO NWD ACROSS BLACK HILLS REGION AND INTO SRN ND BY 22/00Z. ...OH TO MID ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER REGION... ONGOING MCS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA - BUT STILL CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGE -- AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT TOWARD TIDEWATER. STORMS SHOULD FORWARD-PROPAGATE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW AND INCREASING SBCAPE. FRONTAL ZONE E OF APPALACHIANS SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD FOR MUCH OF PERIOD BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY MCS NOW CROSSING WV/PA APPALACHIANS...THOUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE EWD DESTABILIZATION OF WRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW POOL ON OH/PA/WV. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON IN ARC FROM COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF MVC...AROUND OUTFLOW EDGE AND NWWD INTO OH. SEPARATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS ERN VA IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT ALSO...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SMALL AFTERNOON CINH WITH MLCAPE UP TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. MAIN MODE S OF FRONT SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED BOW/LEWP MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AREA... ONGOING MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL/LM REGION THIS MORNING WITH HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SRN PORTION OF REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX MAY ACQUIRE SFC-BASED INFLOW AND STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY IF IT BACKBUILDS MUCH -- AS FOREGOING WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE STRONGLY HEATED DIABATICALLY. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 70S SFC DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 30-40 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR S OF FRONT. DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED WITH ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX THAT MAY CROSS THIS REGION TODAY. BEST SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND GREATEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES SHOULD E INVOF WARM FRONT -- AND AWAY FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- WHERE SHEAR/LIFT/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER NRN IL AND MI/INDIANA BORDER REGION BY 21Z SHOW LARGE 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS WITH 250-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND 45-55 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ...N-CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS NRN KS...SRN/ERN NEB...ERN SD AND IA...WITH MLCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NEAR AND N OF FRONT...AND E OF SFC ROUGH -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ANY DIURNAL STORMS THAT CAN BREAK CAP WOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO MODES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL STRONGLY TIED TO STORM-SCALE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS YET TO BECOME APPARENT. FARTHER W OVER HIGH PLAINS AND BLACK HILLS...STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN -- AMIDST INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALSO INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ANOTHER MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...PRODUCING STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING -- INITIATING INVOF DRYLINE AS INTENSE HEATING LOCALLY ERODES CINH...THEN MOVING EWD 50-100 NM BEFORE DISSIPATING. ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL EVENTS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE SWD FROM WRN KS ACROSS W TX...EXCEPT FROM PERMIAN BASIN SWD WHERE HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIFT FROM RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES MAY CONCENTRATE CONVECTION. ..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 16:36:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 11:36:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405211636.i4LGape29790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211635 SWODY1 SPC AC 211632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MHE BKX RST JVL CGX 35 ESE MMO MLI 50 NNE DSM 30 WNW OFK 35 SSE 9V9 35 NE MHE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSE RWI DAN SSU UNI LAF OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 30 NW CDS 30 SW MAF 35 E MRF 30 NW MRF 35 SW HOB 55 ENE CVS EHA GLD 15 ENE SNY BFF DGW GCC 4BQ 55 SSE GDV Y22 ATY MSP CWA TVC OSC ...CONT... BUF ELM CXY 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 40 NW JAN 30 ESE MEM 20 NE MTO 25 N SPI 30 ESE IRK OJC ICT 35 NE CSM 25 WSW SJT 10 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 10 S CNM 20 NW TCC LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 E SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB/SD INTO NORTHERN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS STATES...ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES STATES...INTO THE DELMARVA... BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KS/NEB. SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM LOW ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN IL/IND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY. ...EASTERN SD/NEB INTO OH VALLEY... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA. SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT /REF WW231/. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO WI/NORTHERN IL. OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE STRONG IN THIS ZONE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF FRONT. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING...ORGANIZING INTO A FAST MOVING MCS WITH AN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO NORTHERN IND OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER MI/IND/OH/PA... MCS ONGOING OVER LOWER MI WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI...AND NORTHERN OH. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF IND/OH. IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...SEVERE STORMS COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF PA/WV...AND VA/MD OVERNIGHT. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL SD/NEB/KS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENED CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM WESTERN KS/NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON. STEADILY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEB/SD...WHERE THEY MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NM/NORTHERN MEXICO WILL COMBINE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 21 20:08:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 15:08:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405212008.i4LK8se29365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212005 SWODY1 SPC AC 212002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE FSD 30 WNW FRM RST JVL CGX 35 ESE MMO MLI 50 NNE DSM 45 ESE SUX 25 NNW SUX 20 ESE FSD. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AOO 25 SSE MGW 25 WNW ZZV 20 NW MFD 40 N CLE 30 NE JHW 35 ESE BFD 35 SSW AOO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ROC 20 NW ITH 20 SSE AVP 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 35 N HSE RWI 20 N GSO 20 SW SSU UNI LAF OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 30 NW CDS 10 SSE MAF 65 SW P07 45 WSW MRF 30 ENE CNM 55 ENE CVS EHA GLD 15 ENE SNY BFF 25 WSW CPR 15 SSE WRL 60 E BIL 55 SSE GDV Y22 25 E ATY MSP CWA TVC 20 NW OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 N CNM 35 ESE TCC 35 SSE LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 SW SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 40 NW JAN 30 ESE MEM 20 NE MTO 25 SE UIN 35 ESE P35 10 NNW MKC ICT 35 NE CSM 25 WSW SJT 10 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IA/EXTREME SRN MN/EXTREME SWRN WI/NRN IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL OH/EXTREME SWRN NY/WRN PA AND EXTREME NRN WV INCLUDING THE NRN PNHDL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER OH VLY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... THERMAL RIDGE HAS NOSED UP THE ERN EDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPES ARE 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...PLUME OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STREAMED EWD THE LAST 24 HOURS INTO THE REGION AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH THE MASON-DIXON LINE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS... HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VLY... MATURE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ESEWD TOWARD THE ERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND NERN OH. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCS AND THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF SWRN NY...WRN/CNTRL PA AND ECNTRL/NERN OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY OF HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE UPSTREAM ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI AND WINDS OF 65 KTS OR GREATER COULD OCCUR. THE STORMS MIGHT WEAKEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT CHARACTER OF THESE WELL-DEFINED MCS/S ARE OFTEN MAINTAINED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. GIVEN MEAN WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OVERNIGHT...ANY TSTM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM MAY TRAVEL INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH RISKS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... SOUTH OF FRONT: VSBL SATELLITE/MESOANALYSIS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED FROM THE MCS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER OH VLY WAS RETREATING NWD THROUGH NRN IL AND NERN IA. HOT PROD HAS DEVELOPED NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VLY AND PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED RAPIDLY ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN IA. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 70F DEW POINTS. THESE TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NRN IL AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN WI LATER THIS EVENING. PROFILER TIME SERIES FROM SLATER...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SUGGESTS THAT THE 0-1KM SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN LOW LCLS...MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN A SMALL AREA OF ECNTRL IA AND EXTREME NWRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. NORTH OF FRONT: MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING EVOLUTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE ELEVATED THAN CELLS FARTHER SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. ...CNTRL PLAINS WWD TO THE HIGH PLAINS... WEST AND NORTH OF THE MO RVR...FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE...ADVECTING 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE WY HIGH TERRAIN ALREADY TODAY AND THESE WILL MIGRATE ENEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING. 18Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWS THAT CINH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND TSTMS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS EWD INTO PARTS OF SD AND SWD INTO PARTS OF WRN NEB ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH/FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. THERE COULD ALSO ISOLD TORNADOES...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK. HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ON THE PLAINS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOIST AXIS EXISTS AND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW IS THE STRONGEST. THIS ACTIVITY...AND OTHER TSTMS...WILL DEVELOP/MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MO VLY OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND SEVERE THREATS. ..RACY.. 05/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 01:11:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 21 May 2004 20:11:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405220111.i4M1Bie29079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220109 SWODY1 SPC AC 220106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N YKN 10 NNW FSD 35 NE MCW 15 NNE JVL 15 NW SBN 45 SW SBN 25 NNW MLI 50 NNE DSM 35 E SUX 20 WNW SUX 10 N YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ECG 45 NNW RWI 25 S ROA 20 SE BKW 55 WNW LUK 20 N DNV 25 E OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 35 NNW CDS 30 NNE AMA 35 N GCK 30 S IML 55 E CDR 35 SSW PHP 15 NE RAP 25 NW REJ 60 N REJ 15 SW DIK 35 W BIS 10 SSE ABR 40 E ATY CWA 40 ESE MBL 45 N MTC ...CONT... 20 NNE ERI 45 NW IPT 20 SSE AVP 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 N CNM 35 ESE TCC 35 SSE LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 SW SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SW MOB 45 SSW CBM 45 ESE MKL 20 N 5I3 10 SSE CMI 10 NNW IRK 10 W FLV 30 SSE MHK 50 WSW END 30 SE BGS 25 S P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD/NEB ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY ACROSS MANY REGIONS OF CONUS THIS EVENING. PLEASE CONSULT GRAPHIC PROBABILITY OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS WHICH AUGMENT THE SHORT DISCUSSIONS INCLUDED IN THIS PRODUCT. ...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND AND SWRN OH. TWO DISTINCT AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE UNDERWAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION...ONE FROM NRN IL ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI...THE OTHER OVER NCNTRL IA. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS ACROSS THE AREAS BEING AFFECTED BY ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MDT RISK AREA...FROM EXTREME SERN SD/NERN NEB ACROSS NRN IA...AND INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX ON THE WARM FRONT OVER IA COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO FROM THE MS RIVER ACROSS LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD COMPLEX TO MOVE OVER THESE AREAS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER RESIDUAL AIRMASS ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND HAZARD. LEADING BOW COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD GREATER STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM NCNTRL/NERN NEB/WRN SD SOUTH TO WRN KS AND THE TX PNHDL. STORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND CELLS OVER NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER NERN NEB COULD ALSO BE TORNADIC. STORMS FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING GIVEN WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. ETA IS FCSTG THAT NEB/SD ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO YET ANOTHER LARGE AND SEVERE MCS LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK EWD ACROSS IA...POSSIBLY SRN MN...AND BE NEAR THE MS RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...OH VALLEY TO DELMARVA... MATURE BOW COMPLEX WITH A LARGE ARC OF CONVECTION FROM SRN PA...ACROSS THE WV PNHDL...WWD TO SRN OH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. AIRMASS ACROSS PA AND MD HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON IAD RAOB BUT LEADING EDGE OF BOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS WV PNHDL INTO NRN VA COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. FARTHER WEST...TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN WV. UPSTREAM ILN RAOB SUGGESTS VERY HIGH INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SRN PART OF THE BOW AND SUPPORT A FEW MORE DAMAGING WIND REPORTS ACROSS THIS AREA. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 06:17:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 01:17:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405220618.i4M6IKe03849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220615 SWODY1 SPC AC 220612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MCK 55 ENE SNY 30 ESE AIA 45 WNW VTN 30 SE 9V9 25 ESE FSD 35 WSW RST 45 SW LSE 20 ESE ALO 30 S DSM 35 N FNB 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ART 35 SSE SLK 15 S LEB 15 W CON 15 NNW ORH 35 NNE EWR 10 W TTN 30 W ILG 30 WSW DCA 35 ENE LYH 20 SSW PSK 30 SE 5I3 20 W CRW 20 SE ZZV 35 ESE MFD 15 SW TOL 35 SE SBN 30 SSE MMO 25 NNW UIN 30 N SZL 35 SSE OJC END 40 N CSM 30 W RSL 25 WNW HLC 35 W GLD 10 NNE LIC 30 ENE DEN 20 NNE CPR 20 NNW COD 30 WSW BIL 60 ESE LWT 45 W GDV 35 NNE PHP 20 NNW 9V9 35 NW OTG 30 N RST 45 W AUW 45 NW MBL 15 S OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DAB 60 N PIE ...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM 20 W MSL 50 SW BNA 25 NW BNA 30 S OWB 50 NNE PAH 45 N SGF 10 SW BVO 35 NNW ADM 10 NNE MWL 30 S BWD 45 WSW JCT 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 20 ENE MRF 15 W MAF 40 WSW CDS 40 SSE DDC 40 W RSL 30 W HLC 25 ESE LIC 50 W EGE 10 E PUC 20 SSE U24 25 E ELY 55 SE BAM 10 E WMC 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CTB 20 WSW HVR 40 S OLF 50 NE MBG 55 NE ABR 20 WNW BRD 10 WSW IWD 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 NE EPM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INCLUDING MUCH OF NEB...WRN IA...AND EXTREME SERN SD AND SRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...SRN GREAT LAKES...AND PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL U.S...SECTIONS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES. FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO PA. BELT OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE HEATED HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHILE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROVIDES RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. SERIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN COMMON ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. AS THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPED EWD...A WEAKER CAP...AND STEERING FLOW ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER MS VALLEY ANTICYCLONE HAS RESULTED IN A MORE SEWD PROPAGATION WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM ERN IA TO NRN IL/IND THROUGH EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO COMPLEX AND RESULTANT FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS EWD INTO LOWER MI THROUGH AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRONTAL WAVE...A MUCH DEEPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STARTING LATER TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS EJECTED ENEWD BY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE/WIND MAX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM NERN CO TO WRN IA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ETA APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK AND OVERLY INTENSIFY OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED DYNAMIC FORCING COUPLED WITH MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES. ...CNTRL PLAINS... EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM KS ACROSS MOST OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA. WHILE AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF KS...COMBINATION OF FORCING AND HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WILL RESULT IN RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAT ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION FOR CELLS MOVING EAST. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION EXPECTED OVER SCNTRL NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN SHOW HIGH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING CYCLONE. EVENTUALLY...STORM MERGERS AND CONTINUED UPSCALE ORGANIZATION AIDED BY DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE SEVERE MCS TRACKING ENEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...HIGH PLAINS-SERN MT/ERN WY/NEB PNHDL... UPSLOPE FLOW...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING TROUGH WILL ALL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM WRN NEB NWWD TO MT. A NUMBER OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLS AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ...EAST... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GIVEN VERY POOR PERFORMANCE OF MODELS WITH RESPECT TO UPSCALE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A PLUME OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NY FROM THE MIDWEST/ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE TO FEED INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRAVELING WITHIN BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. IF THIS OCCURS...THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN PA ACROSS ERN NY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. SERIES OF SMALL SCALE BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SHEAR/FLOW BUT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND LITTLE INHIBITION WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH MICROBURST AND SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS WITHIN THERMAL/LEE TROUGH AND NEAR SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...SRN GREAT LAKES... SCENARIO ACROSS THIS AREA IS SIMILAR TO FARTHER EAST ONLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM SRN WI ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE PERIOD. ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST... FARTHER WEST...STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING INTO WA/ORE AREA WILL DRIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS ID. DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET MAX ACTING ON MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A SLGT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN ID IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 12:55:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 07:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405221255.i4MCtce08742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221254 SWODY1 SPC AC 221251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MCK IML 30 ESE AIA 40 WSW VTN 60 ENE ANW 10 NNW SPW 20 SW RST 25 SSE ALO 45 WSW CID 15 NE LWD 20 SE BIE 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART 35 SSE SLK RUT EEN BDL 35 NNE EWR TTN PHL 15 NW NHK 40 ENE LYH ROA BKW PKB CMH MIE BMI UIN 30 N SZL PNC FSI CDS 30 W RSL 25 WNW HLC 35 W GLD 10 NNE LIC 30 ENE DEN 55 N DGW SHR BIL 70 WNW MLS 45 SSE GDV 55 NW PHP 20 NNW 9V9 35 NW OTG 40 N RST CWA 45 NW MBL 15 S OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB 45 ESE LUL 20 WSW MSL 50 NNE MSL 25 WNW BNA 35 N HOP 45 SW BLV 40 NNW SGF BVO 35 NNW ADM MWL 30 S BWD 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 20 ENE MRF 15 W MAF 35 WNW CDS 25 W GAG 40 WSW RSL 40 W HLC LIC ASE 20 SSE U24 ELY 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP ...CONT... 55 N FCA 20 WSW HVR 30 W GGW 20 SSW ISN 20 N BIS 50 NW ABR 25 ENE ABR 45 NE ATY 70 SSW DLH 30 WNW IMT 40 E PLN ...CONT... 30 N BML 40 SW BHB ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 35 N PIE. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS W-CENTRAL NEB TO E-CENTRAL IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC/PIEDMONT REGION AND WRN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TRANSITION UNDERWAY WITHIN BROADER WRN CONUS TROUGH. MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER SRN BC...AND WILL MAKE CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATH ACROSS PACIFIC NW TO NRN ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD TO NEWD TODAY ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN -- PERHAPS SLIGHTLY DEEPEN -- COMBINED LEE-SIDE/FRONTAL-WAVE SFC CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER W-CENTRAL PORTION KS/NEB BORDER. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD OR ENEWD TOWARD SERN NEB/SWRN IA REGION BY 23/06Z...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE PRESENTLY FROM KS/NEB LOW SWWD ACROSS NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM IS FCST TO MIX EWD TODAY TOWARD 100TH MERIDIAN IN KS...SWD ALONG TX/OK BORDER THEN SWWD ACROSS W TX. ...SRN NEB/NRN KS TO MS VALLEY... AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY NOCTURNAL MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES -- SOME STRONG -- WOULD BE INVOF FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N-E OF SFC LOW ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA...WHERE GREATEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS FCST...AND LCL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW. 18Z SOUNDINGS PLANNED OVER THIS REGION TO FURTHER ASSESS DIURNAL AIR MASS EVOLUTION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION -- NOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA -- HAS SHUNTED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE SWD TO NEAR KS/NEB BORDER. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO STALL IN THAT AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN DRIFT NWD...AS FLOW TO ITS N VEERS FROM NELY TO ELY AND ESELY. THIS WILL YIELD FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS INVOF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS. AIR MASS NEAR BOUNDARY -- E OF SFC LOW -- WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AS 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLIE SFC DEW POINTS EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED INTO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F. ANY CONVECTION INITIATING NEAR SFC LOW AND EWD ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY...AMIDST MLCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG...50 KT 500 MB FLOW AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS DESTRUCTIVE HAIL IS LIKELY FROM A FEW STORMS IN ADDITION TO AFOREMENTIONED TORNADO THREAT. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS OR TWO SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND/OR EWD MOVEMENT OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS MO AND MS VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AXIS -- N OF SFC COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEB WWD INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND NWWD OVER FOOTHILLS TOWARD SERN MT -- FOR RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED ACROSS NEB WHERE DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG -- INCREASING WITH EWD EXTENT. STORM-RELATIVE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 KT ELY FLOW COMPONENT OVER REGION. ...CENTRAL KS TO NW TX... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN INVOF DRYLINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIABATIC HEATING AND DRYLINE LIFT BREAKING OTHERWISE STRONG CAP...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LFC SUGGESTING LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SPREAD ACROSS GREATER PORTION OF DRYLINE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN OK INDICATE MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG...GRADUALLY INCREASING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. COVERAGE/DURATION OF TSTMS -- AND ACCORDINGLY...SEVERE PROBABILITIES -- SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM WRN OK INTO W TX...AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SWD AS WELL. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... EITHER OF TWO ONGOING MCS ACROSS NRN IL...SRN IA AND NRN MO MAY INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/OH...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AS FOREGOING AIR MASS DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES...PROVIDING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IN INFLOW SECTOR. THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO RAISE CATEGORICAL RISK...HOWEVER ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE DERECHO EVENT IS POSSIBLE AND POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF DAMAGING WIND EVENTS COULD COMPEL UPGRADE DURING DAY. MIDAFTERNOON MLCAPES SHOULD BE IN 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE ATOP WELL MIXED...WEAKLY CAPPED...AND NEARLY 200 MB DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. ...NERN CONUS... THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS -- FROM N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OH VALLEY EWD TOWARD MID ATLANTIC AND TIDEWATER -- HAVE BEEN JUMBLED BY PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM PREVIOUS DAY. STILL...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER AREA AS RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS OR SMALL CLUSTERS...AND/OR MOVE EWD FROM OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS MORE ORGANIZED MCS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME EARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING WITH NWD EXTENT AND BUOYANCY GENERALLY INCREASING SWD. ...INTERIOR NW... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK CINH...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS REGION DURING PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING...FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH MLCAPE 300-800 J/KG. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 22 20:13:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 22 May 2004 15:13:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405222014.i4MKEDe12935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222004 SWODY1 SPC AC 222001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MCK IML 40 WSW MHN 10 S ANW 20 SE YKN 30 SSE SPW 25 NW ALO DBQ MLI LWD 20 SE BIE 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ART 35 SSE SLK RUT EEN BDL 35 NNE EWR TTN HGR ZZV DAY 20 SSW HUF 10 SW BLV 10 W VIH CNU PNC 40 W SPS 55 SSE CDS 10 WSW CDS 40 SE DDC 25 W RSL 40 WSW HLC 10 SW GLD LIC 30 ENE DEN DGW SHR BIL 70 WNW MLS 45 S GDV REJ MHE MKT CWA TVC OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MOB 45 ESE LUL 20 WSW MSL 50 NNE MSL 25 WNW BNA 35 N HOP 45 SW BLV 40 NNW SGF 20 N TUL 40 S OKC 10 WNW MWL 35 SW BWD 15 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 S MRF 25 E MRF MAF 40 NW CDS 30 NNW GAG 25 N DDC 50 NW GCK 25 NE COS 15 NW DRO 10 S U17 35 N P38 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 35 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CTB 35 SSE HVR 45 SSW GGW 30 ESE SDY 20 N BIS 50 NW ABR 25 ENE ABR 45 NE ATY 70 SSW DLH 30 WNW IMT 40 E PLN ...CONT... 40 W MSS 30 SSE AUG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO NY/PA... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY... TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/FRONT RANGE IN CO/WY AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN KS THAT IS EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING 50S DEW POINTS WWD THROUGH SRN NEB AND NWRN KS. HIGH BASED CU...WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER ECNTRL CO/NWRN KS WILL ALSO LIKELY GROW INTO TSTMS AS THEY MOVE ATOP THE MOIST AXIS BETWEEN HILL CITY KS AND MCCOOK NEB. BOUNDARY LAYER ON EITHER SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM SRN IA INTO SRN NEB HAS DESTABILIZED AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. INITIATION PROBABLY WILL OCCUR VCNTY DRYLINE BULDGE ALONG THE NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB...ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONGER CAP NOTED ON THE 18Z KTOP SOUNDING. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THOUGH 18Z RAOBS/PROFILERS ARE SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE. THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WILL TEND TO HAVE THE STRONGEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT IN NRN NEB AND NWRN HALF OF IA WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME...BUT STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND DEVELOP/MOVE ENEWD THROUGH IA AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VLY BY MORNING WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL/SRN IA. SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE SWD INTO WRN OK. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS NOT MIXED OUT AND 60S DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING GROUND AS FLOW BACKS ACROSS SWRN OK. LATEST VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO SRN KS ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE SHOULD GROW INTO ISOLD TSTMS THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH BASES WILL TEND TO BE HIGH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH 03-05Z AS DIURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE AND DRYLINE RETREATS. ...MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA... LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST LINEAR MCS IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER NRN IND...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER LOWER MI VCNTY WARM FRONT. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND GIVEN MEAN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY PROFILE IN THE TROP...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND INTO NY/PA OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST ALONG THE FRONT /DTX VWP 0-1KM SHEAR MODIFIED FOR THUMB AREA CONDITIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS/. ...SERN STATES... NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. FLOW IS VERY WEAK THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND TSTMS ARE MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE TSTMS. SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS RAOBS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO NC MAY FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...AS STORMS COLLAPSE...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THREATS FOR SEVERE WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN. ..RACY.. 05/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 05:59:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 00:59:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405230559.i4N5xUe02484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230557 SWODY1 SPC AC 230554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BMI 35 WNW PIA 15 WNW MLI 10 SSW DBQ 30 SSW LNR 15 NNW MSN 40 SSW MTW 35 N MKG 40 NNW LAN 15 E LAN 30 SSE JXN 20 NE FWA 30 NE LAF 30 NNW DNV 10 WNW BMI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 30 SSE EFK 25 SSW PWM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN 55 SSW GCC 20 NW WRL 30 NNW COD 40 W BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 NW MLS 20 E GDV 45 NNE Y22 25 NE MBG 55 WNW HON 25 NNE 9V9 40 SW 9V9 40 WNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 25 N ABE 35 SSW DUJ 45 SE DAY 40 NE OWB 15 W MDH 20 NW VIH 50 S P35 35 SW DSM 25 ENE FOD 25 NW RST 40 NE EAU 15 NNW IMT ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI...SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND NE ENGLAND STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...CNTRL SD AND SW ND... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES... A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS IA...RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS NEW CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEEPENING THE UPPER-TROUGH AND MOVING IT ACROSS NRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 METERS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE ETA AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND VERY HIGH WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LINE AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES EWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO WRN NY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NWRN US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 F AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -18 TO -20 C AND THIS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO SFC HEATING AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 07:30:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 02:30:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405230731.i4N7VGe06430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230729 SWODY1 SPC AC 230726 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW BMI 35 WNW PIA 15 WNW MLI 10 SSW DBQ 30 SSW LNR 15 NNW MSN 40 SSW MTW 35 N MKG 45 E OSC 45 NE MTC 25 SSE DTW 20 NE FWA 30 NE LAF 30 NNW DNV 10 WNW BMI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 30 SSE EFK 25 SSW PWM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW VTN 55 SSW GCC 20 NW WRL 30 NNW COD 40 W BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 NW MLS 20 E GDV 45 NNE Y22 25 NE MBG 55 WNW HON 25 NNE 9V9 40 SW 9V9 40 WNW VTN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 25 N ABE 35 SSW DUJ 45 SE DAY 40 NE OWB 15 W MDH 20 NW VIH 50 S P35 35 SW DSM 25 ENE FOD 25 NW RST 40 NE EAU 15 NNW IMT ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND NE ENGLAND STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...WRN SD...CNTRL SD AND SW ND... CORRECTED FOR SERN LOWER MI MDT RISK/PROBABILISTIC WIND MATCH AND TO INCLUDE NERN CONUS 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY LINES ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES... A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM ERN IA EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS IA...RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS NEW CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEEPENING THE UPPER-TROUGH AND MOVING IT ACROSS NRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 METERS. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE ETA AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND VERY HIGH WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LINE AS IT EVENTUALLY MOVES EWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO WRN NY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NWRN US. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 F AND THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -18 TO -20 C AND THIS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO SFC HEATING AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 13:01:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 08:01:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405231302.i4ND2Ie07347@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231258 SWODY1 SPC AC 231255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW FWA BMI PIA 20 WSW MLI DBQ LNR 35 SE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CDR GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 3HT LWT 45 SSW GGW 35 SSE SDY 45 NE Y22 MBG 9V9 55 ENE CDR 55 WNW CDR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 15 NNW EWR PSB PIT LUK EVV MDH VIH 45 S P35 DSM MCW EAU RHI 30 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM ...CONT... 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI...NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IA TO NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM MEAN WRN CONUS TROUGH. UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER ID WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS MT BY END OF PERIOD...AS SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO ITS S. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA OVER SERN MN -- WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI. PERTURBATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEB -- AND SHOULD AMPLIFY INTO CLOSED LOW TODAY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN IA/SRN WI...IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMNANTS NOW MOVING OVER ERN WI/LM/IL. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS IA/MO AND IL. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND WRN NY MAY DRIFT NWD TODAY AS WARM FRONT. ...GREAT LAKES STATES... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER IA/NRN MO REGION AND MOVE EWD...WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ALL POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WHILE ACTIVITY IS STILL IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE...BEFORE THREAT TRANSITIONS TO ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD. CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MCS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPEDE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION TODAY OVER WI/IL BORDER REGION...AND FOR MORE OF THE DAY OVER LOWER MI. HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT HEATING/MOISTENING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY -- AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE FORCING MOVING EWD FROM IA -- TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN IL AND NRN MO SHOULD MOVE NWD TOWARD MO/IA BORDER THROUGH TODAY -- PERHAPS INTO SRN IA...AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. LCL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW N OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING HEATING/MODIFICATION PROCESS...COMPARED TO FARTHER S ACROSS OZARKS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS WELL. PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ALOFT -- ATOP MID 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS -- WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO YIELD 3500-5000 MLCAPE...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND ACROSS REGION WHERE IA/IL/WI COME TOGETHER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELL AND ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MODES...WITH 250-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH. 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH....REACHING 50-60 KT OVER NERN IA AND SRN/CENTRAL WI. DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM RESULTANT MCS MAY EXTEND EWD AS FAR AS HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BEFORE MOVING ATOP LAYER OF COLD MARINE AIR THAT WILL BE ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED WWD FROM ATLANTIC ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ..NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW BOW ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN MT SEWD TOWARD NERN WY AND BLACK HILLS REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH AFTERNOON...AS NRN ROCKIES TROUGH APCHS AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES. EXPECT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO ABOUT 80 KT BASED ON MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS -- I.E. 55-75 KT OVER SERN MT/NERN WY..INDICATE SOME DAMAGING GUSTS POTENTIAL TO REACH SFC. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 16:39:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 11:39:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405231640.i4NGeLe05918@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231637 SWODY1 SPC AC 231634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW FWA DEC UIN 40 ENE OTM DBQ MSN 35 NNW MKG 65 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DGW 25 WSW GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 50 E BIL MLS REJ PHP 10 S AIA DGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB PAH SGF SZL P35 ALO LSE AUW 10 NNE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AVL LYH 35 SW RIC 10 NW RWI 45 SE CLT GSP AVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20 SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30 SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS 20 E FSI 55 WSW TUL 15 NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML 20 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG 30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS 45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY/PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED AND LESS CONFIDENT THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS. ...MI/IND/OH/PA... CURRENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER IND/IL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY 2500-3500 J/KG. SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WI/NORTHERN IL SHOULD AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM NEAR OR INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI. IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES SUFFICIENTLY... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INTENSE WIND EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OH/LOWER MI. ...IA/IL... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL IA...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. THIS IS ALSO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY TO RECOVER BEHIND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF A RATHER WEAK CAP AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER KS SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN SLIGHTLY BACKED IN THIS AREA NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IND BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING. ...VA/CAROLINAS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND SOUTHWEST VA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN VA AND CENTRAL NC IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED 4000 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE WEAK...SUGGESTING WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FARTHER NORTH ACROSS VA/MD MAY RESULT IN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS...POSSIBLY LESSENING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DESPITE HIGH INSTABILITY. ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST MT TO THE BLACK HILLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID/NV ROTATES EASTWARD. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...SWRN MO INTO NORTH TX... SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST MO INTO NORTH TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS LIKELY CAPPED...HOWEVER 12Z/15Z RUC SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT STORMS IN THIS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE EVENT THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED AND AN ISOLATED CELL CAN BREAK CAP. ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 23 20:09:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 15:09:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405232010.i4NKAQe06735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232003 SWODY1 SPC AC 231959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DTW 10 SSE FWA 40 WSW SPI 20 W UIN 30 NNW BRL 30 NNE CID MSN 45 SSW MBL 65 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE DGW 30 N WRL 45 ENE COD 55 WNW SHR 50 ENE BIL MLS 60 WSW DIK PHP 35 ENE CDR 50 NNE DGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB 15 WSW PAH 15 WNW POF 20 S JLN 20 NNW JLN 30 NE SZL 35 ESE OTM 40 E MCW 40 W AUW 40 SSE IMT 10 NNE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW AND ROA 35 SW RIC 20 NW OAJ 45 NNW CHS 30 NNW AGS 35 NNW AND. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20 SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30 SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS FSI 55 WSW TUL 15 NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML 20 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG 30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS 45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ECNTRL IA...EXTREME SERN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL...NRN IND...EXTREME NWRN OH AND CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VLY AND EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY TO NY AND PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND MN AND WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY ACROSS WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY SLOT WRAPPING NEWD AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AREAS FROM ERN IA AND NWRN IL WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXIST. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH BY 21Z ACROSS ERN IA...THEN MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO ALSO EXISTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY VWPS EXHIBIT LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI ALONG WARM FRONT...PERHAPS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS TRIES TO RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. 18Z DTX SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 225 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. LATER THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SOME WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 65 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE IN FORCING TSTMS. CINH IS MUCH STRONGER FARTHER SW AND TSTMS WILL BE FIGHTING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS FARTHER NORTHEAST...A RISK OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ECNTRL MO. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...GIVEN LEFT-OVER INFLUENCES OF RECENT MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS SRN IL. ...MIDWEST TO UPPER OH VLY... LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS HAS BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH IND THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG. 18Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB AND THIS MAY BE INHIBITING STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH. BUT...GIVEN THAT THE MCS IS MOVING TOWARD SRN PERIPHERY OF 40 KT WLY FLOW...ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE DOWNSTREAM INTO OH AND PERHAPS NWRN PA LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/NRN PA... TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG OLD BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FEED NEWD FROM PA INTO BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED E-W ACROSS CNTRL NY. AS DURING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITH ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... CINH REMAINS QUITE STRONG ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN OK. GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CAP WILL BE OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...IF AN ISOLD TSTM COULD MANAGE TO INITIATE...IT COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. ...SERN STATES... NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IS HOT AND MOIST...BUT THE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. THUS...MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE AND AS THE CELLS BEGIN TO COLLAPSE...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 05/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 01:07:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 23 May 2004 20:07:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405240108.i4O18Fe10002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240105 SWODY1 SPC AC 240102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DTW 40 ENE FWA 35 ENE LAF 40 N DNV 10 ESE MMO 15 E RFD 25 NE JVL 30 NNW MKE 40 SE MTW 65 N MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE AGS 35 SE AND GSP 10 ENE HKY 20 N GSO 35 N RDU 15 W RWI 25 E FAY 40 SE CAE 30 NE AGS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ART 25 ENE ALB 25 NE EWB ...CONT... BID 25 N EWR 10 SE PSB 10 ESE ZZV 30 W SDF 25 SW POF 20 N MLC 55 ESE OKC 25 ESE OKC 35 NE OKC 15 NE BVO 30 NE SZL 40 NE IRK 20 WSW DBQ 25 SE VOK 55 NW MBL 20 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CDR 60 NE DGW 30 W 4BQ 20 S MLS 40 S GDV 45 WSW DIK 45 SSW DIK 40 NW PHP 45 SW PHP 30 NE CDR 20 W CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 SW BHB ...CONT... 20 SE JAX 30 WNW JAX 20 SSW AYS 50 NNW AYS 35 S AHN 45 NE RMG 35 SE BNA 30 NE MKL 35 N HOT 20 ESE DUA 20 ESE ABI 35 SW ABI 55 ENE BGS 65 ESE LBB 30 WSW LTS 40 ENE MKC 25 W OTM 40 E MCW 30 NE EAU 40 S CMX 50 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 15 SW FCA 45 NNW GTF 60 SE HVR 20 NNW OLF 30 E ISN 35 ESE BIS 30 W HON 50 ENE ANW 30 WNW BBW 40 ESE SNY 50 E VEL 30 WNW DPG 35 NNW WMC 60 N LMT 30 ENE EUG 30 S OLM 10 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE IL...SW WI...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NW OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM SRN WI ACROSS WRN IL INTO MO AND OK. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 70 F AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS OK...MO AND IL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FUEL THE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT ILX SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SOUNDING SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN NRN IL...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND LATER THIS EVENING AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FARTHER SW ACROSS MO AND OK...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS FARTHER NW. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AFTER DARK BUT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN NY. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NY THIS EVENING. THE BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 IN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SRN LOWER MI MOVES EWD INTO WRN NY LATER TONIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SWRN SD AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES....COLD AIR ALOFT AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 06:11:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 01:11:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405240611.i4O6Bae01405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240609 SWODY1 SPC AC 240605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 25 NNW STJ 40 SSE BIE 25 ENE CNK 35 W BIE 20 NW LNK 20 NNW OMA 35 N DSM 25 NW MLI 35 ESE MLI PIA 45 WSW PIA 40 ENE IRK P35. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N SZL 15 W MKC 15 NW EMP 25 NE HUT 30 ESE RSL 30 S HSI 30 SW OFK 10 NNE SUX 30 WSW MCW 50 NW DBQ 30 W JVL 35 NNE MMO 40 ENE BMI DEC 40 WSW SPI 40 N SZL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CSM 35 W CSM 40 WNW GAG 40 WNW HLC 15 NW BBW 45 W YKN 10 NNE OTG 15 WSW VOK 15 S MKG 40 NNW MFD 20 ENE PKB 25 SW SSU 25 N HKY AVL 30 SW TYS 30 E BNA 30 WNW HOP 55 NW CGI 45 NNE SGF 30 NW JLN 10 SE PNC 25 NW OKC 25 ESE CSM 20 SW CSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DOV 20 ESE AVP BGM 30 NNE ROC ...CONT... 25 NNW PBG EFK 30 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 35 N BZN 50 SW BIL 15 NE SHR 20 N GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 30 E INL 45 ENE DLH 45 ESE RHI 45 NW MBL 20 NE TVC 40 E PLN ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DAB 10 SE GNV 35 NW GNV 30 E VLD 45 SE MCN 25 SSW ATL 30 SSW MSL 25 SSW MEM 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 35 WNW MAF 25 N PVW 50 SSW LBL 15 NW LBL 30 W GCK 50 ENE LAA LHX 35 SSE MTJ 45 NNE 4BL 60 E ELY 45 SSW EKO 45 NNW WMC 45 NNE 4LW 50 E SLE 15 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB...SRN IA...NW IL...FAR NRN MO AND FAR NE KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE KS...ERN NEB...IA...NRN MO...NRN IL AND FAR SE WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY TODAY... ...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING ERN NEB AND SRN IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE KC AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE COMES OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUNCH EWD...SPREADING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SETUP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN IA AND NRN MO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 55 TO 65 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BACKING SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN MO AND SERN IA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES (0-3 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH EVEN A VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD...A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SHOULD OCCUR AND THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE EVENING. A SWATH OF VERY HIGH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS WRN IA/ERN NEB AND KS AS A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUNCHES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN MCS FEEDS OFF OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MOVING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG) AND 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM BY 21Z. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL SFC BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ERN NY INTO MA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ...OH AND TN VALLEY... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 40 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. VEERED SFC WINDS AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 13:15:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 08:15:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405241315.i4ODFde19349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241313 SWODY1 SPC AC 241310 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW OMA 20 WNW MLI 35 N PIA 20 WSW BMI 15 SSE SPI 35 NW STL 30 E OJC 20 ENE MHK 35 SW BIE 30 WSW LNK 25 NNW OMA. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW SUX 40 NNE MLI 10 W MMO 30 ENE BMI 15 SW CMI 10 SSW ALN 40 SSE SZL 15 ESE EMP 20 E SLN 10 W CNK 25 ENE HSI 20 SW OLU 25 SSW SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MHE 30 N FOD 10 WNW DBQ 35 E RFD 40 SW SBN 30 E LAF 20 SSE HUF 40 ESE TBN 25 WSW JLN 15 SW PNC 25 SSW LTS 25 SSW CDS 65 SW GAG 55 WNW CNK 25 NW GRI 30 ESE ANW 60 SSE 9V9 20 SE MHE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE NEL 35 SW AVP 20 WNW ROC ...CONT... 25 NNE PBG 20 NNE EEN 10 W HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 30 E INL 50 W IWD 15 NW AUW 40 SW MKG 35 WSW TOL 10 WSW MFD 15 N CAK 20 NNE YNG 10 N ERI ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 20 NNE BZN 50 SW BIL 35 WNW SHR 25 WNW GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 35 WNW MAF 35 NNE PVW 55 S LBL LBL 30 W GCK 50 ENE LAA LHX 35 SSE MTJ 45 NNE 4BL 60 E ELY 45 SSW EKO 45 NNW WMC 45 NNE 4LW 50 E SLE 10 S SEA 35 NE BLI ...CONT... 35 SE JAX 35 N GNV 35 ESE VLD 35 WNW AYS 20 SSW MCN 20 NNW LGC 45 NW BHM 20 WNW UOX 20 SW LIT 25 SSE MLC 25 S ADM 35 NNE BWD 55 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA...NRN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS TO CENTRAL PORTIONS IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN NY/NERN PA TO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... ...LOWER MO TO MID MS VALLEYS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE CO...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD TO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY 18Z...AND THEN EWD TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A RETURN OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL-ERN KS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY NEAR 70 F FROM ICT-EMP. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER ERN CO WILL MOVE ENEWD REACHING SERN NEB BY 00Z...WITH MOIST SLY FLOW ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO RETREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS NRN MO BY EARLY EVENING. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE MODERATE/HIGH RISK AREAS ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT AND PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES /AOA 8 C/KM/ SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP INCREASING SLY LLJ ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO INTO IA BY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN KS BETWEEN 18-21Z AHEAD OF THE SE CO TROUGH...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS SERN NEB AND THEN DEVELOP EAST/ESEWD ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT INTO SWRN IA/NERN KS/NWRN MO WITH A CONTINUED ATTENDANT THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD SRN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE THE LLJ TO VEER TO SWLY OVER NRN MO THIS EVENING...AND SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AROUND 00Z ACROSS SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL IA/NWRN- NORTH CENTRAL MO. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FAST MOVING BOW ECHO AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL TONIGHT. CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH ALONG THE DRY LINE SWD FROM SRN KS INTO WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAPE/SHEAR VALUES. ...PORTIONS NY/NERN PA TO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND... SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EWD TO NEW ENGLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. POCKETS OF HEATING AHEAD OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WRN-CENTRAL NY SHOULD ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BY 18Z WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY INTO WRN-SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 50-60 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TODAY...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO FAVOR A HAIL THREAT. ...TN VALLEY TO SRN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE-TYPE STORMS...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO NRN MN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MN WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING...THOUGH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 16:40:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 11:40:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405241641.i4OGfMe28195@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241639 SWODY1 SPC AC 241635 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW LNK OMA 40 NNW OTM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 20 WSW TOP 35 ENE CNK 35 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CNK 20 NNW OLU 25 NE OFK 10 NW CID 40 ENE MLI 25 S MMO 20 S DEC ALN 25 NNW EMP 20 SSE CNK 40 N CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ABR 50 W AXN 35 WSW STC 20 WNW RFD 25 SSE CGX 15 ESE LAF 30 SSW HUF 35 SW TBN 20 N JLN 40 WSW TUL SPS 45 E BGS 30 S LBB 55 N CDS 15 NNE GAG 10 S RSL 15 ESE BUB 35 NW ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW EFK 15 SE RUT 30 NE EWB ...CONT... ORF 10 NE EKN 30 NNW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 35 SE JAX 30 SW GNV 20 NNW CTY 65 SSW AGS 15 NE MCN 15 SSE LGC 25 W TOI 40 SSW SEM 40 W SEM 10 SE TCL 30 E MKL 50 SE FYV 50 WNW MLC 25 NNW MWL 20 SW BWD 25 WNW JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SE ELP 10 ESE ROW 20 S CAO 10 ENE LHX 25 WNW COS 40 WNW GJT 30 W 4HV 25 NNE CDC 60 W P38 70 NNE NID 60 S BIH 55 SSE TVL 20 ESE RBL 45 SE MHS 50 SE EUG 25 SW PDX 15 NNE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NW CTB 50 WNW GTF 20 NNE BZN 50 SW BIL 35 WNW SHR 25 WNW GCC 35 SE 81V 35 NE CDR 55 W VTN 45 SSE PHP 35 ENE DIK 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 N GFK 10 SSE TVF 35 SW HIB 15 NE EAU 40 NE MKE 30 SSE AZO 20 NNE DAY 10 NNW CMH ERI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST SWD INTO SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 15Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN KS TO VICINITY OF MKC AND INTO CNTRL MO. TRAILING DRYLINE STRETCHED SWD INTO WRN KS /E OF DDC/. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW EWD TO NEAR TOP BY EARLY EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WHILE DRYLINE MIXES EWD WITH BULGE DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL INTO NERN KS AT THIS TIME. WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NEB/ WILL LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /OVER SWRN KS/ WILL EJECT NEWD INTO NWRN MO BY EARLY EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM ERN SD SWD INTO ERN NEB. 40-50KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /PRESENT ACROSS KS/NEB/ INTO DEVELOPING TSTM COMPLEX WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO W-CNTRL/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STORMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS SWRN KS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SW. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F/ HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO NERN KS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY. EXPECT MLCAPES TO APPROACH 3000-4000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA SWD INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS WITHIN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT WILL YIELD LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS POTENT COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THOSE STORMS WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL BE CO-LOCATED. EXPECT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MCS /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ OVERNIGHT EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS/COMMA HEAD CIRCULATIONS. ...OK/TX... VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS THIS MORNING E OF DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON E OF DRYLINE FROM N-CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA IS STRONG CAP OBSERVED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIALLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z ETA GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER NRN MEXICO WHICH WILL EMERGE INTO WRN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROFILERS AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGEST BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM TUS TO ABQ TO AMA AND IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN ONTARIO INTO WRN/CNTRL PA THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TODAY WITH REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING NY/PA EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP EWD TO VICINITY OF E-CNTRL NY BY 25/00Z. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WRN MA/SERN NY SWD ACROSS ERN PA/NJ INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND AXIS OF 55-65KTS AT 500MB FROM PA/NY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT OVER CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED BY SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. FARTHER S OVER THE DELMARVA REGION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...HOWEVER FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN INITIATE. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 20:13:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 15:13:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405242014.i4OKEBe22708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242010 SWODY1 SPC AC 242007 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LNK OMA DSM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 10 S TOP 35 ENE CNK 25 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SUX 40 ESE FOD 25 E CID 35 ENE MLI 25 SSW MMO DEC BLV 20 S TBN 20 SE JLN 30 WNW BVO 20 SW ICT 30 NNW SLN 30 E HSI OFK 20 ESE SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB 10 W HON 25 N ATY 30 SSW AXN MSP MSN CGX 45 W LUK 55 WSW LOZ BNA ARG HRO TUL SPS 30 NW ABI 50 NE BGS 40 ESE LBB CDS 15 NNW CSM P28 15 E RSL BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK LEB 25 ENE ISP ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF MRB PSB 35 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N GCK LAA 30 N ALS 4HV P38 TPH RBL 60 NNE MFR OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA FCA 35 NNE WEY WRL 50 WNW CDR 50 NE CDR 30 SSE PIR 35 E MBG 70 NE MOT ...CONT... 65 N DVL GFK CWA BEH DAY ZZV 25 S YNG 20 ENE ERI ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST/PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/NERN U.S.... --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 19Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NE OF RSL. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WEST OF ICT AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN OK/TX NEAR LTS/AGS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXTENDS SEWD FROM NWRN INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. EAST OF THE LOW/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN 1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/NERN KS/SWRN IA/NWRN MO. REFERENCE WW 273 AND 275. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AND SWRN MO/SERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ...OK/TX... EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASING MORE MOIST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...A DRYLINE BULGE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN END AND ICT AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP. ANY CU THAT DEVELOP AND MOVES INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. A SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BACK WWD OVERNIGHT AND SINCE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WRN NY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN OH. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR IS ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z AS ADDITIONAL HEATING RESULTS IN MORE DESTABILIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. REFERENCE WW 277. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 24 21:50:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 16:50:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405242150.i4OLoTe24046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242147 SWODY1 SPC AC 242144 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0444 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 242150Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LNK OMA DSM MLI 25 NNE PIA 20 ENE SPI 30 SSW SPI 15 NNE COU 10 S TOP 35 ENE CNK 25 WSW LNK. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SUX 40 ESE FOD 25 E CID 35 ENE MLI 25 SSW MMO DEC BLV 20 S TBN 20 SE JLN 30 WNW BVO 20 SW ICT 30 NNW SLN 30 E HSI OFK 20 ESE SUX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB 10 W HON 25 N ATY 30 SSW AXN MSP MSN CGX 45 W LUK 55 WSW LOZ BNA ARG HRO TUL SPS 30 NW ABI 50 NE BGS 40 ESE LBB CDS 15 NNW CSM P28 15 E RSL BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW EFK 15 NNW PSM 10 SSE PVD ...CONT... 20 ESE ORF MRB PSB 35 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL GFK CWA BEH DAY ZZV 25 S YNG 20 ENE ERI ...CONT... 60 NNE BML 20 E BHB ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N GCK LAA 30 N ALS 4HV P38 TPH RBL 60 NNE MFR OLM 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA FCA 35 NNE WEY WRL 50 WNW CDR 50 NE CDR 30 SSE PIR 35 E MBG 70 NE MOT. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST/PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/NERN U.S.... AMENDED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK FURTHER EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND --OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED TODAY-- ...LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION... AS OF 19Z...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NE OF RSL. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO WEST OF ICT AND THEN SWWD INTO WRN OK/TX NEAR LTS/AGS. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND THEN EXTENDS SEWD FROM NWRN INTO EAST CENTRAL MO. EAST OF THE LOW/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN 1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LONG-LIVED...CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/NERN KS/SWRN IA/NWRN MO. REFERENCE WW 273 AND 275. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AND SWRN MO/SERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ...OK/TX... EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SWD ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASING MORE MOIST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS MORE STRONGLY CAPPED THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...A DRYLINE BULGE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE BETWEEN END AND ICT AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP. ANY CU THAT DEVELOP AND MOVES INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. A SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BACK WWD OVERNIGHT AND SINCE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. ...NY/PA/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING INTO WRN NY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN OH. SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR IS ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z AS ADDITIONAL HEATING RESULTS IN MORE DESTABILIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. REFERENCE WW 277. ..IMY.. 05/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:08:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:08:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250108.i4P18me17692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250105 SWODY1 SPC AC 250102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SPI 10 SSE STL 25 E VIH 45 SSE SZL 40 S OJC 30 WSW OJC 20 NE TOP 15 ESE FNB 35 WNW LWD 10 SE DSM 30 SSW CID 30 SSE MLI 25 N SPI 30 S SPI. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 10 SW JLN 25 SW CNU 20 W EMP 30 SSE BIE 20 S OMA 35 SSW FOD 15 SW ALO 15 SSE DBQ 20 WNW MMO 10 NNE CMI 20 E SLO 20 W MDH 50 NE UNO 10 S SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 15 ENE LCI 10 SSE EWB ...CONT... 15 S NEL 15 WNW BGM 50 WSW ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HRO 35 ENE MKO 45 NNW MLC 35 WNW ADM 10 WNW SPS 20 S LTS 10 WNW LTS 25 WNW END 15 NNE HUT 15 N CNK 35 E GRI 15 NE OFK 15 WSW OTG 15 N MKT 40 SW EAU 30 NW MSN 35 NNE LAF 40 S MIE 20 ESE LUK 30 NW CRW 15 SE CRW 25 WNW BKW 15 ENE 5I3 25 SSE OWB 15 WNW PAH 30 ESE UNO HRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N DVL 15 SSE GFK 65 NNE EAU 20 W MTW 35 NW FWA 15 E DAY 10 S ZZV 10 N PIT 25 NE FKL 45 WSW BUF ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 30 S 3B1 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N DDC 40 NNW GCK 45 NW ALS 20 S U17 30 SSW P38 35 SE TPH 35 W RNO 35 ESE MHS 50 ENE EUG 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA 30 ENE 3DU 20 SE COD 35 NE DGW 40 NE CDR 25 SSW PIR 35 SE MBG 10 W BIS 40 ESE ISN 70 NW ISN. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA...WRN IL AND NRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...MO...IL...IA AND FAR SE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OZARK PLATEAU AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU/WRN OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA AND NE KS. IN ADDITION...A SQUALL-LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IA AND FAR NW MO. THIS LARGE AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA RESULTING IN TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR TOPEKA KS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4600 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND THIS WILL FEED A SEVERE MCS AS IT RACES ESEWD THIS EVENING. BACKED SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KT AND THIS COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.5 C/KM) AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE ST.LOUIS AREA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL OK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR OK CITY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS THE SUPERCELLS GRADUALLY GUST OUT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN NY...MA...NH AND VT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS ERN NJ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET OVER WRN NY. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NY AND NJ. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MA...NH AND VT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER AROUND -14C. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 01:19:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 20:19:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250119.i4P1Jre23612@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250117 SWODY1 SPC AC 250113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE SZL 40 S OJC 25 WSW OJC 20 NE TOP 15 ESE FNB 30 WNW LWD 10 SE DSM 30 NE OTM 30 S MLI 25 SSW PIA 25 S SPI 10 SSE STL 25 E VIH 45 SSE SZL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 10 SW JLN 25 SW CNU 20 W EMP 30 SSE BIE 20 S OMA 35 SSW FOD 15 SW ALO 15 SSE DBQ 20 WNW MMO 10 NNE CMI 20 E SLO 20 W MDH 50 NE UNO 10 S SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S NEL 15 WNW BGM 50 WSW ART ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 15 ENE LCI 10 SSE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HRO 35 ENE MKO 45 NNW MLC 35 WNW ADM 10 WNW SPS 20 S LTS 10 WNW LTS 25 WNW END 15 NNE HUT 15 N CNK 35 E GRI 15 NE OFK 15 WSW OTG 15 N MKT 40 SW EAU 30 NW MSN 35 NNE LAF 40 S MIE 20 ESE LUK 30 NW CRW 15 SE CRW 25 WNW BKW 15 ENE 5I3 25 SSE OWB 15 WNW PAH 30 ESE UNO HRO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW 3B1 30 S 3B1 35 SE AUG ...CONT... 25 NNE CRE 45 WNW FLO 30 WNW AGS 35 SSW CSG PNS ...CONT... 7R4 20 NW JAN 25 ESE TUP MKL 20 WSW JBR FSM MLC MWL 25 WNW DRT ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF HOB 20 E AMA DDC 40 N DDC 40 NNW GCK 45 NW ALS 20 S U17 30 SSW P38 35 SE TPH 35 W RNO 35 ESE MHS 50 ENE EUG 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW FCA 30 ENE 3DU 20 SE COD 35 NE DGW 40 NE CDR 25 SSW PIR 35 SE MBG 10 W BIS 40 ESE ISN 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 65 N DVL 15 SSE GFK 65 NNE EAU 20 W MTW 35 NW FWA 15 E DAY 10 S ZZV 10 N PIT 25 NE FKL 45 WSW BUF. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA...WRN IL AND NRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...MO...IL...IA AND FAR SE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...OZARK PLATEAU AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... CORRECTED FOR SIG AREA ON HAIL GRAPHIC ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU/WRN OH VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NRN MO...SRN IA AND NE KS. IN ADDITION...A SQUALL-LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IA AND FAR NW MO. THIS LARGE AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA RESULTING IN TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR TOPEKA KS SHOWS EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4600 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY EXTENDS ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO AND THIS WILL FEED A SEVERE MCS AS IT RACES ESEWD THIS EVENING. BACKED SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE SOUNDING SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 50 KT AND THIS COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (AROUND 7.5 C/KM) AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F...WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE ST.LOUIS AREA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL OK. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR OK CITY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL THREAT THIS EVENING WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS THE SUPERCELLS GRADUALLY GUST OUT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SRN NY...MA...NH AND VT. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS ERN NJ. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET OVER WRN NY. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN NY AND NJ. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MA...NH AND VT WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE COLDER AROUND -14C. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE REGION...MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 06:03:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 01:03:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250604.i4P64Ie08011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250602 SWODY1 SPC AC 250559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ART 20 NNE UCA ALB 10 S GON ...CONT... 20 N HSE 30 E EWN 10 ESE FAY 30 ENE SPA 25 SW TYS 35 ENE JBR 10 SW MLC 10 NE SPS 35 S CDS 45 NE PVW 35 E AMA 45 WNW GAG 15 NNE FLV 30 WNW BEH 70 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 35 SSE VLD 10 S MGR 15 SSW CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 25 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 25 SSE HOB 30 NE HOB 30 SE CVS 55 SSE RTN 40 ENE DRO 10 SSE U17 45 NNE BFL 40 S FAT 35 W FAT 20 SE SCK 40 WNW TVL 30 NNW LOL 45 WSW TWF 35 SW SUN 65 SW 27U 40 NW DLN 40 ESE HLN 35 WNW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 20 S 4BQ 35 SE RAP 25 NE MHN 35 WNW EAR HSI 10 E LNK 15 WSW DSM 25 SSW LNR 40 E VOK 15 NW AUW 35 E DLH 25 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 N ART 30 S SLK 25 WNW EEN EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/ERN GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS... A SEVERE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY DAYBREAK. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALL THE WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY. IF THE BOW CAN HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SRN PA...WV...VA...MD...SRN NJ AND DE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM CNTRL IL TO SRN OH AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE PRESENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BUT EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WHICH MAY LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 40 KT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REACH 8.0 C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST OF THE CAPE ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK CITY SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL MAINLY ACROSS NRN OK...SERN KS AND SRN MO. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 06:12:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 01:12:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405250613.i4P6DJe12551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250610 SWODY1 SPC AC 250606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ART 20 NNE UCA ALB 10 S GON ...CONT... 20 N HSE 30 E EWN 10 ESE FAY 30 ENE SPA 25 SW TYS 35 ENE JBR 10 SW MLC 10 NE SPS 35 S CDS 45 NE PVW 35 E AMA 45 WNW GAG 15 NNE FLV 30 WNW BEH 70 NNE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 35 SSE VLD 10 S MGR 15 SSW CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 25 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 25 SSE HOB 30 NE HOB 30 SE CVS 55 SSE RTN 40 ENE DRO 10 SSE U17 45 NNE BFL 40 S FAT 35 W FAT 20 SE SCK 40 WNW TVL 30 NNW LOL 45 WSW TWF 35 SW SUN 65 SW 27U 40 NW DLN 40 ESE HLN 35 WNW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 20 S 4BQ 35 SE RAP 25 NE MHN 35 WNW EAR HSI 10 E LNK 15 WSW DSM 25 SSW LNR 40 E VOK 15 NW AUW 35 E DLH 25 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 N ART 30 S SLK 25 WNW EEN EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/ERN GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS... A SEVERE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY DAYBREAK. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F ALL THE WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY. IF THE BOW CAN HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SRN PA...WV...VA...MD...SRN NJ AND DE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM CNTRL IL TO SRN OH AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE PRESENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BUT EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BY AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WHICH MAY LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 40 KT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REACH 8.0 C/KM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY... AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AFTER DARK. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST OF THE CAPE ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OK CITY SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL MAINLY ACROSS NRN OK...SERN KS AND SRN MO. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 13:07:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 08:07:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405251308.i4PD8Ce31410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251306 SWODY1 SPC AC 251303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ILM 15 SSE CLT 25 W DYR 40 ENE MLC 50 SW SPS 55 ESE LBB 25 ENE PVW 50 SSE DDC FLV 25 N UIN 35 NNE LAF 25 NE PSB 25 SSW ABE 25 ESE ILG 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 20 NW INK 55 S CVS 55 ENE LVS 45 NE DRO 20 E SGU 35 NNE BFL MER 30 NE SAC 45 SW TWF 30 NNW SUN 50 WNW 27U 20 NE MSO 35 N HVR ...CONT... 55 N MOT 15 ESE P24 15 W DIK 40 NNE 4BQ 20 SE 4BQ 35 SSW PHP 25 SW ANW 20 SW EAR 45 W BIE 35 W OTM 35 ESE MLI CGX 35 ENE MTW 20 WSW ANJ ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 15 WSW EWB ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 40 SSW VLD CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 15 ESE MWL 35 NNW JCT DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... BAND OF 50-60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS GENERALLY ORIENTED FROM OFF THE CA COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AT 11Z AND WEAKER FEATURE/ MCV ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WILL BOTH MOVE NEWD TO ERN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN TX ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO SRN MO AND CENTRAL IND/OH BY 00Z. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NERN OK TO IL/IND HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT MCS WITH ONE OR TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LYING ACROSS THIS SAME REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN OH EWD ACROSS NRN VA AREA SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO SRN PA AND DE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ...SRN PLAINS ENEWD TO MID MS/OH VALLEYS... AIR MASS ALONG/S OF COLD FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT MIDWEST MCS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXTENSIVE BAND OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM AND LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY AND INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR MASS COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG/S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/ SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND MORE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NRN OK/SRN KS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS TO WRN KY WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. ...PA/DE SWD TO NC... A SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR/ DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS SRN PA IN ADVANCE OF EWD MOVING MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...NWD RETURN OF WARM FRONT INTO NJ WILL BE HINDERED TODAY BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER NJ WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY ONLY MOVING INTO DE. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6 KM FROM 35-40 KT/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS PA/NRN VA TO DELMARVA SUPPORTING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE INDICATED BY THE 06Z ETA TO MOVE ACROSS MD/DE THIS AFTERNOON MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN VA INTO NC...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KT/ ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE MULTI-CELLULAR WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 15:55:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 10:55:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405251555.i4PFtXO22087@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251553 SWODY1 SPC AC 251549 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM CLT CHA 35 NW LIT PGO DUA ABI P07 MRF HOB PVW P28 CNU STL IND FDY 40 NW YNG BFD PHL 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW MCN 30 SW ANB 35 SW CBM 10 SE GGG 45 ENE JCT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 10 ENE CNM 15 N CVS 30 SSW CAO 20 NE ALS 45 N CEZ 15 E SGU 50 N DAG 25 N EDW 50 SE FAT 20 NNE MER 45 NNE SAC 45 WSW SVE 15 W SVE 40 E SVE RNO 40 ENE TVL 30 ESE NFL 20 SSE WMC 55 NW OWY 70 SSE S80 35 N 3DU 65 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 45 SE MOT 70 WSW DIK 65 NE DGW 45 E SNY 40 WSW RSL 20 NNE HUT 25 N EMP 30 ENE STJ 20 NE PIA 20 ESE MKG 20 ENE PLN ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 15 SW EWB ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO MID ATLANTIC... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN IND/WESTERN KY. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RE-ORGANIZE TODAY AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH A MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WESTERN PA IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PA/VA/NC BEFORE WEAKENING. ...NORTH TX/OK/AR... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS WEST TX AND MUCH OF OK. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BENEATH THESE CLOUDS...BUT IT APPEARS A SOUTHERN EDGE TO THICKER CIRRUS WILL DEVELOP FROM CDS-OKC-FSM. SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EXIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ...WEST TX... SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR CDS TO EAST OF MAF THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. DEEP MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...CO... LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PLAINS OF EASTERN CO. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM IN THIS REGION TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ..HART/BANACOS.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue May 25 20:09:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 25 May 2004 15:09:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405252009.i4PK9rO16655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 252004 SWODY1 SPC AC 252000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SDF 35 WSW LUK 25 W HTS 30 S HTS 10 SSW JKL 40 NNE BWG 25 S OWB 40 WSW OWB 30 WSW EVV 10 NNW OWB 25 WSW SDF 15 N SDF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM CLT CHA 35 NW LIT PGO DUA ABI P07 MRF HOB PVW P28 CNU STL IND FDY 40 NW YNG BFD PHL 20 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 45 SE MOT 70 WSW DIK 65 NE DGW 45 E SNY 40 WSW RSL 20 NNE HUT 25 N EMP 30 ENE STJ 20 NE PIA HTL 15 E APN ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 15 SW EWB ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 N PIE ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30 WSW MCN LGC TCL GGG 45 ENE JCT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35 SW ROW 55 N ROW 30 SSW CAO 20 NE ALS 45 N CEZ 15 E SGU 50 N DAG 25 N EDW 50 SE FAT 20 NNE MER 45 NNE SAC 45 WSW SVE 15 W SVE 40 E SVE RNO 40 ENE TVL 30 ESE NFL 20 SSE WMC 55 NW OWY 70 SSE S80 35 N 3DU 65 ENE CTB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AREA. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET...EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS NEAR WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. LIFTED PARCELS... ORIGINATING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...APPEAR TO POSSESS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. MERGER OF JET STREAK IN BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...AND LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK TOPPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM PATTERN...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...FROM CINCINNATI TO PADUCAH. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SURFACE POOL DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS...RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS POTENTIAL...AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING... AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DRY LINE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING /NEAR OR AFTER 26/03Z/. MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR MORE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME SOUTH OF INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INHIBITION. TENDENCY LIKELY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ON COOL/NORTH SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT...WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA/ NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ..KERR.. 05/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 05:57:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 00:57:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405260557.i4Q5veO02579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260555 SWODY1 SPC AC 260551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ORF 15 ENE RWI 35 W SOP 20 W AND 25 NNE GAD 20 ENE TUP 15 SW LIT 40 S MLC 10 NW DUA 40 SSE SPS 40 NW SJT 40 ENE FST 35 NNE FST 20 E INK 50 SSW LBB 25 E GAG 20 NE ICT 45 SW OJC 10 WNW JEF 20 N EVV 30 SSW LUK 25 N UNI 15 SSW DUJ 30 SW ELM 15 NW UCA 50 NE UCA 25 NW GFL 10 W PSF 10 ESE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 35 SW CBM 25 W SHV 35 NW AUS 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PLN 35 W MBL 10 NE MKE 35 S CGX 25 W MIE 30 NNE DAY 25 W CAK 30 NNE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 50 N HOB 30 S AMA 45 NE AMA LBL 25 N GCK 20 SSW ABR 30 SSW BIS 25 NNW 4BQ 50 W RKS 40 NNE ENV 75 NNW WMC 50 NNW LMT 25 ESE SLE 70 WNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE W AND NW TX...THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH AND TN VALLEYS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...NEW ENGLAND STATES...... ...OH AND TN VALLEY... A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED EAST TO WEST ALONG THE OH RIVER AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN MO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND STRONG CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS KY AND TN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EARLY. HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS (-10C AT 500 MB) WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS KY AND VA...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...W AND NW TX/SW OK... A DRYLINE SHOULD BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY ACROSS W TX WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN OK. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F ALONG THE CAP ROCK. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION BUT STRONG SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR W TX SHOW INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM ABOUT 45 KT AT MIDDAY TO 55 TO 60 KT BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DROPS OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE. ...NY/PA/NJ/DE/MD... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN NY. AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EWD INTO ERN NY TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SEWD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM MD TO NH. A STRONG VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN OH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO A MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS...A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 13:05:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 08:05:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405261306.i4QD64O27626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261304 SWODY1 SPC AC 261301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 45 S CLT 50 WNW AND 30 NE UOX 15 NE HOT DUA 40 SSE SPS 40 NW SJT 40 ENE FST 35 NNE FST 20 E INK 50 SSW LBB 35 SE GAG 35 SW EMP 35 SW OJC 45 S MTO 20 SSW DAY 15 ESE CAK 15 NNW BFD 30 S ART 25 NW GFL 20 E ALB POU 25 NW EWR 15 S NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CHS 25 SW GAD 35 NNW ELD 35 NW AUS 65 W COT ...CONT... 75 WNW MRF 50 N HOB 30 S AMA 45 NE AMA LBL 25 N GCK 20 SSW ABR 30 SSW BIS 25 NNW 4BQ 50 W RKS 40 NNE ENV 55 NW SVE 50 ESE CEC 55 SE OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 ENE PLN 25 S MTW 25 ENE CGX 40 SSE SBN 30 ENE FWA 40 SE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN TX INTO OK...AND EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES NWD TO PA/NY... ...SYNOPSIS... NERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW TODAY ALLOWING DOWNSTREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA TO MOVE ESEWD TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/NRN BAJA. STRONG ZONAL FLOW /50-70 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TO MIDDLE AND NRN ATLANTIC STATES. UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND ELEVATED STORMS FROM ERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SRN MN/NRN IA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN MO TO THE MID OH VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN EXTENT MOVES SEWD ACROSS NY/PA AS A COLD FRONT REACHING NWRN VT TO SWRN PA BY 00Z. MEANWHILE...THE WRN EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD TODAY INTO NRN OK...AS A DRY LINE MIXES EWD INTO CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK AND NWRN TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ...NY/VT SWD TO PA/NJ/MD/DE/NRN VA... UPPER TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKER LOWER MO VALLEY SHORT WAVE THROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL APPROACH NERN STATES BY 00Z WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING OVER THIS REGION AT THAT TIME. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NY/PA/MD IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO A MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SRN NY/PA INTO NRN VA TO THE DELMARVA AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SRN VA/NC... WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY SUPPORTING STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LEE TROUGH...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. ...SRN PLAINS TO TN/OH VALLEYS... EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. NONETHELESS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SHOULD AID TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK...WHILE SRN PORTION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER OK SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ...NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS SRN MN... NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ERN NEB TO SRN MN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S REACHING SRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CAPE BEARING SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE. THUS...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SRN MN FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 16:39:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 11:39:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405261639.i4QGdjO14974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261636 SWODY1 SPC AC 261633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW STC 20 ENE FRM 20 ENE SUX 15 NNE OFK 50 W YKN 25 NE HON 60 SW FAR 15 N FAR 25 NW BRD 15 SW STC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRE 45 SSW CLT 20 NE HOT 40 NNW MWL 35 NW SJT 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 45 E AMA 40 NNE ICT MKC 20 SW MTO 30 SW DAY 30 SSE CAK 30 NNE SYR 15 NNW GFL 30 WNW EEN 35 SW POU 20 W TTN 20 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 40 NW ABQ 25 NW LVS TCC 10 W AMA 35 WSW GAG 25 N BBW 15 ESE ABR 45 SE JMS 10 SE BIS 30 SW MLS 30 NW MLD 30 S WMC 30 NNE RBL 25 ENE 4BK 30 ESE OTH 50 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN 35 ENE MLI 35 NW LAF 20 SSE FWA 50 NNW MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 40 N MCN 10 E GWO 35 NNW GGG 50 ENE JCT 40 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...MO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY /REF SWOMCD 909/. ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL BE ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN TAPPING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY 17Z SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SWRN MO/SRN IL ENEWD INTO SERN OH. PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD KY AND POSSIBLY TN...THOUGH WRN EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT ON MORNING RAOBS AT LIT AND OKC. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE... ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM ERN KS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. AS HEATING PERSISTS...CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ALONG THE FRONT AND COULD SUPPORT INCREASED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION...GIVEN 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION REMAINS ON NERN EXTEND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER SRN PA AND THE CHESAPEAKE REGION/ERN NC AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NOW ENTRENCHED OVER ERN NY AND ERN PA. ...SRN PLAINS... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL BE RATHER STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN OK TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY OVERCOME CAPPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE AXIS. VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE POSSIBLY JUST BEFORE 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER INTO OK ALONG PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONT AS HEATING WILL BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL INTO THE 90S OVER WRN TX... SUGGESTING PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN PLAINS... SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO ERN SD TODAY...AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM NOW OVER ERN MT. SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT SHIFTS INTO ERN SD LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING. ERN EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF SEVERE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed May 26 20:00:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 15:00:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405262000.i4QK0VO00401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261958 SWODY1 SPC AC 261955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 10 SW STC 10 NNW OTG FSD 10 NW MHE ABR 55 SW FAR 10 WSW GFK 10 SE BJI BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW ILM SPA MKL 15 SSE FYV 10 SSW SPS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 10 NE PVW 40 N CSM ICT EMP 40 NNE SZL BLV BMG UNI PIT DUJ UCA GFL PSF POU ABE TTN 15 SSE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 65 ESE SOW 10 N GNT RTN LBL HUT SLN HLC GLD 10 SSE SNY AIA 10 SE PIR MBG JMS 10 WNW DVL 55 NNE MOT ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN JVL BEH 20 SSE TOL 50 NNW MFD ...CONT... 30 ENE CHS ATL MSL LIT PRX 40 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF MLS IDA 30 NNW TWF BNO MFR EUG YKM 4OM 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WESTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...OZARKS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... INTENSE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION. MODELS SUGGEST RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...AND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EVOLUTION OF ONGOING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST SURFACE COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH 50+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT EXTENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AREA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION HAS HAMPERED HEATING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION BELOW THE ANVIL IS STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THUS...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS/REDEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AFTER 27/00Z. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 90F...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL/STABILIZE THIS EVENING. WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM...BUT BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST NEAR LOW/ MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING UPSTREAM OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT. WARMING MID-LEVELS...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE WESTERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COLORADO VALLEY...BUT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONFINE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE DRY LINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG NEAR DRY LINE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... AIR MASS ALONG EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOST UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AIDED BY APPROACH OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. FOR MORE DETAIL ON ALL ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 05/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 01:08:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 26 May 2004 20:08:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405270108.i4R18bO01456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270106 SWODY1 SPC AC 270102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DLH 45 NE MSP 30 SSE RWF FSD 20 E HON 35 ESE ABR 55 SW FAR 15 ENE FAR 10 SE BJI 20 SW DLH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 10 NE PVW 40 N CSM ICT 20 ENE TOP 45 SSW IRK 20 W DEC 25 SSE IND UNI PIT DUJ UCA GFL PSF POU ABE TTN 15 SSE NEL ...CONT... 10 WNW ILM SPA MKL 30 SE FYV 45 N MWL 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS ATL MSL LIT PRX 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN 65 ESE SOW 10 N GNT RTN LBL HUT SLN HLC GLD 10 SSE SNY AIA 10 SE PIR MBG JMS 10 WNW DVL 55 NNE MOT ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN JVL BEH 20 SSE TOL 50 NNW MFD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF MLS IDA 30 NNW TWF BNO MFR EUG YKM 4OM 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... WNWLY/WLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO... THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SWRN AZ/NRN BAY OF CA MOVING EWD INTO NWRN MEXICO. FLOW FROM THIS FEATURE EXTENDS NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY AS FLATTENED RIDGE EXTENDS E-W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS ERN NY STATE INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ...THEN WWD INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE DRAPED OVER MO AND KS. ALSO...PRONOUNCED DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WRN KS SWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND NWRN TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX. ...VA SWWD ACROSS NC INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY... LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EWD FROM E CENTRAL VA INTO NWRN NC WWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES TO 4000 J/KG. RAOB DATA FROM GSO SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH 30-55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY... CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL INTO SWRN IN. ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN OH/N CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. ACTIVITY IS ALSO WORKING JUST NORTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS ENHANCED 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 350-450 M2/S2 FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS AREA IS FORECAST BY THE 21Z RUC TO CONTINUE INTO SRN INDIANA NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. ...SRN PLAINS INTO W TX... STORMS FORMED AGAIN ON THE SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME WRN OK SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WERE OVER N CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK WITH FAIRLY HIGH LCLS WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8C/KM. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35-40 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE FEW HOURS AS TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE. ACTIVITY OVER N CENTRAL OK MAY CONTINUE INTO SWRN MO AS THEY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN KS. ...ERN NRN PLAINS INTO MN... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER ERN ND SWWD INTO N CENTRAL NE..THEN NWWD INTO S CENTRAL MT. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT UNDERNEATH STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 05:35:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 00:35:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405270535.i4R5ZOO07049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270533 SWODY1 SPC AC 270529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE JBR 45 N LIT 55 E FSM 45 WNW FYV 35 ENE CNU 30 WSW SZL 10 NNW COU 40 SSW DEC 45 NNW EVV 30 SW EVV 40 N DYR 30 NE JBR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MEM 45 NNW TXK 10 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT 40 ESE P07 30 SW P07 10 S FST 20 W BGS 50 SSW LTS 20 WSW OKC 40 NNE PNC 10 E MKC 20 N UIN 40 ESE MMO 40 ENE MIE 40 WNW HTS 25 E JKL 35 NNW CSV 50 E MKL 10 NNW MEM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S BNO 45 WNW BNO 50 WSW PDT 40 N ALW 20 E PUW 65 NW 27U 20 N SUN 35 NE OWY 80 N WMC 70 S BNO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 50 WNW 3HT 45 WNW CPR 35 N DGW 30 NE 81V 70 NNW GGW ...CONT... 55 N MOT 50 S JMS 20 SE BKX YKN 45 WSW IML 30 WSW COS 30 ENE SLC 55 WNW ELY 45 WNW TPH 65 ESE FAT 30 ESE FAT 15 SSE MHS 25 WSW MFR 20 NNW PDX 50 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 35 SSE AHN 30 SW UOX 10 NNE GGG 25 W AUS 15 S LRD ...CONT... 20 WSW FHU 30 SW SOW DHT 35 W P28 50 ESE OMA 25 WNW LSE 30 N IWD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN MO...EXTREME NRN AR AND SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OR AND SERN WA INTO WRN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER AZ MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS DEPICT QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NC WWD INTO SRN MO DURING THE EARLY PERIODS...BUT THE ETA MODEL LOSES THIS FEATURE BY 28/00Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WOULD ESTIMATE THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... COMPLEX SITUATION WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEFINE THE BOUNDARIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL THEN EXTEND SEWD ACROSS SWRN OH INTO CENTRAL NC. MODELS INDICATE LIFTED INDICES WILL BE -8 TO -10 ACROSS PARTS OF MO /CAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG/. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 110-120 KT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM W CENTRAL OK ENEWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO THEN EWD OVER NERN NC. LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER ERN OK INTO SWRN MO...THEN SHIFT EWD AND EXTEND FROM NERN AR INTO SERN OH BY 28/00Z. THUS...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...NWRN KY AND POSSIBLY SWRN OH WILL BE IN AN AREA WHERE BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 80 AND 110 M2/S2 WITH CAPE OF 3000 J/KG. THIS AREA LOOKS THE BEST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGH AND WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 9000 FT AGL. ...PARTS OF OR...WA AND ID... HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-110 KT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN CA INTO SW AND W CENTRAL ID AFTER THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60-70 KT PULLING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -26C. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 18Z ENHANCING UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN SOME FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EXTREME ERN OR...AND W CENTRAL ID...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH UPPER JET EXIT REGION. AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE NEAR/AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND HAIL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT. BUT FEEL THAT STORMS MAY NOT BE ORGANIZED AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 13:15:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 08:15:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405271315.i4RDFUO14512@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271313 SWODY1 SPC AC 271309 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE FSM 50 SSW JLN 40 SSW SZL COU 50 WNW STL 10 NW BLV 10 W MDH 30 SSE CGI 20 ESE JBR 40 ESE FSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S BNO 45 WNW BNO 35 WNW PDT 40 N ALW 50 NNE S80 MQM 10 ENE PIH TWF 80 W OWY 70 S BNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07 25 N FST 30 SW LBB 30 SW CDS 20 WNW FSI 45 SSE PNC 15 SSW CNU OJC 20 ENE UIN 20 SE CGX 15 NW LAN 60 N MTC ...CONT... ERI 35 SSW EKN 25 SSW LYH 25 SW TYS 40 SSW MKL 45 N TXK FTW 15 W BWD DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 50 WNW 3HT 45 WNW CPR 35 N DGW 30 NE 81V 70 NNW GGW ...CONT... 55 N MOT 50 S JMS 20 SE BKX YKN 45 WSW IML 30 WSW COS 30 ENE SLC 55 WNW ELY 45 S U31 65 NNW BIH 50 S TVL 15 SSE MHS 25 WSW MFR 55 W YKM 50 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CHS 15 ENE CAE 30 N GWO 35 SSE GGG 50 ESE SAT 15 S LRD ...CONT... DUG 20 ESE SOW DHT 35 W P28 50 ESE OMA 25 WNW LSE 30 N IWD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MO AND NRN AR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE/FAR SERN WA INTO CENTRAL/SRN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. TODAY...AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN AZ ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRACK EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX BY 12Z FRIDAY. BAND OF STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL-SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF IL/IND/OH INTO PA WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS OH/SRN LOWER MI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO SRN MO AND NERN OK BY 00Z...WHILE A DRY LINE WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM CENTRAL OK TO AROUND SPS AND THEN SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR ICT...IS PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN MO REACHING ERN MO/SRN IL AREA BY 00Z. ...ERN OK/MO/AR TO OH/TN VALLEYS... SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM EXPECTED ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR AND SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MO WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2500-3500 J/KG OVER THESE STATES. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NEWD TODAY AND MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM IND INTO SRN LOWER MI AND OH/WV. 60+ KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS IND INTO OH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IND AND CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SRN MO AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO...WITH MAINLY A HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND THREAT NEWD INTO IND/LOWER MI ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL MOVE INTO OH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MO/IL WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD INTO NRN AR/SRN IND TO KY/TN THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS A WSWLY 45-50 KT LLJ DEVELOPS FROM NERN AR INTO KY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY. ...WRN/NRN TX INTO SRN OK... ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX ARE AN INDICATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN AZ UPPER TROUGH. FURTHER INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WRN TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WRN TX OVERNIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK INTO WRN AR. ...ERN ORE/SERN WA/CENTRAL-SRN ID... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu May 27 16:33:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 11:33:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405271633.i4RGXMQ28322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271631 SWODY1 SPC AC 271627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HRO UMN 40 SSW SZL UIN 10 NE SPI 15 WNW MTO 40 S MTO 15 NE PAH 15 ESE JBR 35 SSW HRO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S BNO 45 WNW BNO 35 WNW PDT 40 N ALW 50 NNE S80 MQM 10 ENE PIH TWF 80 W OWY 70 S BNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 30 NNW RIC 25 NE ROA 30 ENE TYS 25 ESE MKL 10 SE LIT 10 NNW DAL 35 NNE JCT DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 30 SSW INK 35 SE HOB 30 WSW CDS 30 E END 45 W CNU 30 S FNB 30 W LWD 35 NE OTM 25 N MMO 15 NW LAN 60 N MTC ...CONT... 45 N BUF 10 SE PSB 30 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 40 N AGS 25 WSW GLH 20 NW LFK 45 S AUS 50 NW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 WNW BOS 10 ENE GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 35 S JMS 25 SSE SPW 30 SW DSM CID 20 NNW LSE 45 ENE EAU ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 65 ESE SOW 10 ESE GNT 50 SW CAO 30 SSE LBL 20 ESE P28 30 E CNK 15 SSE GRI 25 N BBW 40 NNW MHN 20 WSW CDR 55 W CDR 40 ENE CYS 20 ENE LIC 10 E PUB 15 NE MTJ 45 W PUC 45 E TVL 50 SSW TVL 45 E UKI 50 ESE EKA 35 WSW MFR 55 NNE PDX 30 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MO...CENTRAL/SRN IL AND FAR NRN AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/DELMARVA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ...OZARKS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY... SEVERAL SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD WILL REMAIN ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING...WITH MODEST HEATING LIKELY SUPPORTING A LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL/SRN IND THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM...EXPECT CAP TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SERN IA/NRN IL AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 20Z. FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...EARLY CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS LOWER MI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CLEARING WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SPREAD ACROSS IND/SERN LOWER MI. STRENGTH OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SWRN EXTENT OF HIGHER END THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY STRENGTHENING CAP INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MDT RISK AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR BY LATER THIS EVENING. ...SRN PLAINS... PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ETA IS PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING A 70-80 KT H5 SPEED MAX ACROSS SWRN TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SWRN TX WITH SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SWRN TX AND SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING INTO NWRN TX. SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEARER THE MID LEVEL JET OVER SWRN TX. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK... HOWEVER CAPPING MAY BE MORE INHIBITIVE INTO N-CENTRAL TX AND OK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CHESAPEAKE... AREA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AREA OF MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK CAP. THEREFORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR EXPECTED...STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...ERN ORE/ID... PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE PAC NW TODAY AND INCREASE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL IN THE 50S. THOUGH CLOUDS NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WILL OVERSPREAD ERN ORE AND WRN ID...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION AND SUPPORT AND INCREASED THREAT OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...PENDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 01:05:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 20:05:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405280106.i4S16AQ16524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280103 SWODY1 SPC AC 280100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PAH 55 N POF 15 S STL 10 E SLO 40 SE BMG 50 W EKN 15 ENE BKW 25 ENE 5I3 55 W LOZ 20 ENE PAH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW DRT 40 NE JCT 20 W FTW 30 SSE MLC 20 NW FSM 20 SSE JLN 40 S OJC 15 ESE MKC 20 NW COU 35 WSW MTO 35 E IND 40 N DAY 25 WNW CLE ...CONT... 20 NNW SYR 15 SW MSV 10 S ACY ...CONT... 35 N HSE 10 NW RWI 15 NE HKY 25 NNW CHA 45 NNE UOX 35 SW PBF 20 S TYR 35 NNE SAT 60 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 WNW BOS 10 ENE GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE P07 40 NNW SJT 70 NW ABI 45 N CDS 30 NNE GAG 20 ENE P28 40 E ICT 30 WSW TOP 20 WNW STJ 20 W P35 15 NNE UIN 20 WNW CMI 20 ENE LAF 15 NE FWA 20 E DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 25 SSW JMS 10 SSW ATY 40 W SPW 35 NW OMA 30 SW OLU BBW 60 E CDR 35 E 81V 30 SE SHR 10 SSE WRL 35 E BPI 55 N PUC 20 N U24 40 NW ELY 25 NNE U31 40 SSW NFL 40 ENE SCK 45 SE UKI 55 W RBL 35 SW MFR 35 SW YKM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 30 SSE AHN 40 SSE GLH 10 ENE LFK 45 S AUS 25 S LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN OH VALLEY INTO WV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SWRN TX INTO UPSTATE NY... ...OH VALLEY... E-W ORIENTED MCS IS EVOLVING FROM ECNTRL MO...ACROSS SRN IL INTO SRN OH AND WV. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD INTO VEERED LLJ THAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS COMPLEX MCS...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUE WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND VEERED...BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WITH TIME...SW-NE ORIENTED BOW SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEVELOPING COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BOW ECHOES TO BECOME MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ...NERN TX TO AR... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING NEWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS WEST TX WHICH WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING EWD TONIGHT. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN TX INTO AR BY LATE EVENING. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE MATURING MCS APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT MODE...WITH MORE DISCRETE BUT SLOWLY DECREASING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER NCNTRL TX. INCREASING SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ..DARROW.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 05:39:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 00:39:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405280539.i4S5dEQ26317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280537 SWODY1 SPC AC 280534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MCN 15 WNW SEM 30 NE MCB 15 ESE ESF 15 W MLU 15 WSW GWO 10 SSE MSL 20 SE CSV 30 S BLF 25 ENE DAN 20 SW GSB 15 SW FLO 40 NNW MCN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE DVL 45 NE FAR 10 WSW STC 35 NNE MCW 40 NW DSM 35 ENE OLU 40 WSW 9V9 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 30 SSW CLL 30 ENE ACT 45 SSE DUA 25 ENE MLC 45 WNW FYV 10 NW SGF 40 SE VIH 35 ESE MVN 30 WSW LUK 30 E ZZV 10 NNW BGM 30 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 15 NE MAI 15 SW MOB 30 SE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW DLH 30 WSW CWA 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 25 NNW STJ 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 40 SSW IML 35 S LIC 45 SSE GUC 30 SSE 4BL 15 SE LAS 60 N NID 45 NNE FAT 35 NW TVL 30 NE 4LW RDM 25 E OLM 30 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA TO NC... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE...ASCENT AHEAD OF ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...OR WELL NORTH OF ANY APPRECIABLE REGION OF INSTABILITY. ...NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ INCREASES MARKEDLY AFTER DARK FROM NEB INTO SERN SD. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING MAY AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN NEB...HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z NORTHEAST OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND VEERING PROFILES WILL FAVOR STORM ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AFTER DARK. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO WRN GULF COAST REGION... COMPLEX MCS STRUCTURE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WWD INTO WRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT WITH LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRAPE WSWWD ACROSS THE SRN TN VALLEY REGION INTO THE WRN GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ROBUST CHARACTERISTICS. CURRENT THINKING IS REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY REGENERATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN REASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF REGION. ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 12:56:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 07:56:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405281256.i4SCuiQ29668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281254 SWODY1 SPC AC 281251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE DVL 45 NE FAR 20 S STC 35 N MCW 40 SW FOD 20 W OMA 25 WSW OLU 30 NNE VTN 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 SSE AHN 45 SSW ANB 30 W JAN 35 N HEZ 10 NNW MLU 40 N MLU 35 SE PBF 15 SW MEM 25 NNW MEM 20 E JBR 30 SSE POF 15 ENE POF 20 N HOP 50 NNW CSV 35 N TYS 15 W TRI 35 NW HKY 15 S HKY 10 SW CLT 35 WSW SOP 25 ENE FAY 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 35 S LIC 35 W GJT 35 SW BCE 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 ENE MER 35 NE SAC 20 WNW SVE 30 NNE 4LW 45 NNE RDM 10 WSW YKM 60 NW 4OM ...CONT... DRT 20 SSE BGS 55 NNW CDS 30 NW END 35 ESE MVN 10 NW DAY 20 NW ELM 10 NE MSS ...CONT... 20 SSW SAV 45 NNE DHN 20 NE LCH 10 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN. ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH... COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN... THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 13:09:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 08:09:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405281309.i4SD9ZQ04875@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281307 SWODY1 SPC AC 281304 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE DVL 45 NE FAR 20 S STC 35 N MCW 40 SW FOD 20 W OMA 25 WSW OLU 30 NNE VTN 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 SSE AHN 45 SSW ANB 30 W JAN 35 N HEZ 10 NNW MLU 40 N MLU 35 SE PBF 15 SW MEM 25 NNW MEM 20 E JBR 30 SSE POF 15 ENE POF 20 N HOP 50 NNW CSV 35 N TYS 15 W TRI 35 NW HKY 15 S HKY 10 SW CLT 35 WSW SOP 25 ENE FAY 10 ENE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 20 SSE BGS 55 NNW CDS 30 NW END 35 ESE MVN 10 NW DAY 20 NW ELM 10 NE MSS ...CONT... 20 SSW SAV 45 NNE DHN 20 NE LCH 10 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 W RRT 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 35 S LIC 35 W GJT 35 SW BCE 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 ENE MER 35 NE SAC 20 WNW SVE 30 NNE 4LW 45 NNE RDM 10 WSW YKM 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTH... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS. WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN. ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH... COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. ...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN... THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 16:28:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 11:28:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405281628.i4SGSmj24114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281625 SWODY1 SPC AC 281622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DVL 35 ENE FAR 30 ESE STC 30 WSW LSE 25 S ALO 40 E OMA 20 SSW OFK 20 SW RAP 25 NE 4BQ 25 E SDY 35 SW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 S CAE 10 WSW AUO ESF 55 S SHV 30 NW SHV 30 NW GLH 15 WNW HSV 50 NW CHA 20 NW TYS 35 NNW HKY 15 WSW DAN 40 SSW RIC 15 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SAV 40 NNW CEW 40 NW GPT 30 S BTR 25 NE BPT 10 ENE HOU 15 N VCT 40 WNW VCT 45 SSE AUS 35 SE TPL 45 SSW TYR 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE FYV 20 NNE UNO 35 WNW EVV 10 WNW LUK 25 WSW MFD 15 NNE PSB 20 NE UCA 35 E MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 30 W HIB 45 SSE DLH 25 ENE VOK 45 WNW MMO 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 30 ENE COS 45 W PUB 15 SE GUC 15 N MTJ 25 NE U28 10 S PUC 30 NW 4HV 45 NE BCE 25 ESE CDC 35 WSW SGU 40 NNE LAS 35 N DRA 35 ESE U31 35 SSW BAM 55 WNW WMC 20 NNW 4LW 50 N MFR 35 SSE EUG 15 N ONP 30 SSW HQM 30 ESE CLM 65 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS/LWR MO VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. STRONG TROUGH NOW ALONG THE W CST WILL MOVE E TO A NRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN AXIS BY 12Z SATURDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER AR SHOULD CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT LWR LEVELS...MID ATLANTIC STATES/LWR OH VLY COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND REACH A CHS/MEM LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. BUT THE FEATURE OF LIKELY GREATER CONVECTIVE SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE SEGMENTED PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH ATTM EXTENDING FROM SE AR/NRN MS ENE INTO GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. FARTHER W AND N...WRN END OF OH/TN VLY FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE LWR MO VLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. ...LWR MS/LWR TN VLY ENE TO THE CAROLINAS... SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INVOF COMPLEX PREFRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG A WSW/ENE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...RELATIVELY WARM AIR IN THE 800 TO 600 MB LAYER ACROSS MS/AL/GA PER MORNING RAOBS SHOULD ERODE FROM W TO E AS AR IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW/WEAK. BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE /40+ KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN WSWLY FLOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND FROM N/S ORIENTED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. FARTHER E/NE...SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER NC AND NRN SC...IN AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM WARM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH GULF RIDGE. WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EXISTING SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE QUITE WEAK...AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN. BUT GIVEN 60-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. OVERALL SETUP IN THIS REGION THEREFORE APPEARS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...LWR MO VLY NWWD INTO ERN MT... LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN SD INTO NRN IA/SRN MN AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND EWD PROGRESS OF WRN STATES TROUGH. SATELLITE...RAOB AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT AMPLE MID LEVEL /700 TO 500 MB/ MOISTURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS REGION...WHERE 35-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING MASS INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. IN THE MEANTIME...HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRY LINE/WARM FRONT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM OR TWO OVER PARTS OF NRN NEB/SD. IF SUCH ACTIVITY DOES INDEED FORM...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS NW INTO ERN MT. COMBINATION OF MODEST /30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR AND 500-1000 MEAN MLCAPE COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS IN ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. ...OH VLY... A FEW DIURNAL STORMS WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT SEGMENT OVER OH/WRN PA...BENEATH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ..CORFIDI.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri May 28 20:05:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 15:05:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405282005.i4SK5mj18498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 282003 SWODY1 SPC AC 282000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 45 SE AGS 15 E AUO 20 S 0A8 20 N MCB 25 S ESF 55 S SHV 30 NNW SHV 15 ENE GLH 30 W CBM 10 WSW GAD 20 SE CHA 40 E CLT 30 SSE DAN 40 SSW RIC 15 NE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DVL 15 NNW FAR 20 NNW STC 25 WNW RST 35 SSW ALO 40 E OMA 20 SSW OFK 20 SW RAP 25 NE 4BQ 25 E SDY 35 SW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SAV 15 SW TOI 20 E LUL 25 ENE BTR 25 NE BPT 30 N PSX 40 WNW VCT 20 SE AUS 25 ESE TPL 45 SSW TYR 40 S PGO 45 NNE LIT 55 ESE TBN 30 WNW EVV 10 WNW LUK CMH 30 NNW CXY 10 SSW AVP 25 SW POU 15 NNW ALB 25 WNW EFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 35 NE BJI 30 S EAU 20 NNE DBQ 15 SW MLI 30 NNW UIN 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 50 ENE SNY 30 ENE COS 45 W PUB 20 S GJT 25 NNW U28 40 W 4HV 15 ENE SGU 40 E DRA 35 N DRA 20 NE TPH 60 NNW ELY 40 NE EKO 25 E WMC 65 S BNO 35 SE EUG 50 N ONP 20 S HQM 30 ESE CLM 65 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...LOWER MS VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY AT LOW LEVELS -- ARE RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NRN LA GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS / AL INTO NR GA...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SERN VA. THIS BOUNDARY -- SOUTH OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS KY / SERN OH / SRN PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM ERN OH INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A VERY LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE REPORTS EXISTS WITH NERN U.S. STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A SOMEWHAT GREATER -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ALONG SERN U.S. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ACCOMPANIED BY 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CLUSTER. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION / DETAILS...PLEASE SEE SWOMCD #965 AND 966. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO MN / IA... WIDESPREAD / MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS INCREASINGLY-STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEB SWD /SOUTH OF WARM FRONT/...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DRYLINE / WARM FRONT INTERSECTION IN N CENTRAL / NERN NEB...AND NWWD ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO ERN MT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY / CONFLUENCE AXIS. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THIS FRONT / TROUGH...ENHANCED VEERING / SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 05/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 00:47:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 19:47:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405290047.i4T0lSj15449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290046 SWODY1 SPC AC 290042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW OFK 65 ENE ANW 40 NNW VTN 40 NNW RAP 35 NNE 4BQ 10 SE OLF 50 NNW ISN 50 N MOT 40 WSW DVL 15 NNW FAR 20 NNW STC 25 WNW RST 35 SW ALO 45 ENE OMA 15 SSW OFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SSI 15 NNW DHN 40 ESE LUL 35 NNW BTR 15 NW LCH HOU 45 SSW CLL 20 ESE TPL 45 SSE DAL 30 SSW PRX 45 ESE PGO 35 NNE LIT 30 S DYR 15 SW BNA 40 SSW LOZ 15 N 5I3 40 WSW EKN 50 WNW MRB 35 E HGR 20 SSW ILG 25 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 35 NE BJI 30 S EAU 20 NNE DBQ 15 SW MLI 30 NNW UIN 15 SW P35 15 NW FNB 20 NNW GRI 30 ESE LBF 20 NNE GLD 25 N LHX 30 W ALS 55 S 4BL 40 S SGU 40 E DRA 55 SE TPH 20 NE TPH 55 ENE U31 20 NNE BAM 70 E 4LW 60 SE RDM 40 E DLS 20 WSW EPH 50 NE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MS VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND WY WELL WEST OF MAIN MOISTURE AXIS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO DRIVE AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN SD. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR 600MB AT LBF...HAS AIDED INITIATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WITH TIME ONGOING SUPERCELL ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED AS DIURNAL COOLING AND STRENGTHENING LLJ FORCE NEW DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CONTINUED CLUSTERING MAY ALLOW A MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SLOW EWD PROPAGATION EXPECTED INTO THE MS VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. AS SELY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS WRN ND INTO NERN MT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR MOST AREAS. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 05:52:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 00:52:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405290552.i4T5qxj24117@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290551 SWODY1 SPC AC 290548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CSM 45 W HUT 35 ENE HLC 20 SW HSI 35 ESE GRI 30 ESE LNK 15 SE FNB 20 SW OJC 40 WSW JLN 25 SSE TUL 35 ESE OKC 40 E CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 25 N BUB 15 E HON 40 NNE ATY 35 WSW STC 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 10 SE DSM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 45 SSW IMT 35 SSW RFD 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 NW TYR 40 NW HDO 20 NNW DRT 45 ENE P07 55 S BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 30 SSW P24 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 35 NW BGS 45 ESE AMA 35 SSW LBL 25 NNE EHA 35 S LAA 10 E RTN 30 NNW SAF 30 WNW GUP 10 NNW GCN SGU 45 NE ELY 50 WSW MLD 20 NW PIH 60 SW 27U 30 S LWS 20 WSW GEG 70 NNW 3TH 30 SSE FCA 10 NNE BZN 25 S BIL 35 WNW MLS 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MQT 45 SSE ESC 10 SW GRR 35 SSE FDY 25 SSW MGW 35 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 35 WNW DAB 30 W JAX 10 NW MGR 25 SW SEM 10 WNW JAN 40 SE SHV 45 NE CLL 30 SSE AUS LRD. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SRN NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK TO SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO THE CANADIAN BORDER... ...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING TORNADOES... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS FROM NRN TX...NWD INTO NEB....AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SWRN MN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF NRN-MOST SFC LOW IN CENTRAL SD WILL RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG VEERING AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT...WWD TO SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...IS RAPIDLY SURGING NWD ACROSS TX EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 05Z THIS AIRMASS HAD RETURNED TO THE HILL COUNTRY...NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX...NEWD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE 70S DEW POINTS WILL LIFT ACROSS OK AND KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE BY PEAK HEATING/CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/BROKEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS AFTERNOON HEATING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...WILL PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 60KT FROM NERN OK INTO NERN KS. DAMAGING TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WELL AFTER DARK ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE COMPLEXES COMPRISED OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS AS IT TRANSLATES INTO WRN IA/MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 08:30:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 03:30:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405290830.i4T8Ubj29661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290826 SWODY1 SPC AC 290823 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S RSL 25 SW RSL 30 N HLC 25 SSE BBW 30 ENE BUB 20 ESE OFK 20 SSW OMA 20 WNW STJ 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN 45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 25 N BUB 15 E HON 40 NNE ATY 35 WSW STC 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 10 SE DSM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 45 SSW IMT 35 SSW RFD 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 NW TYR 40 NW HDO 20 NNW DRT 45 ENE P07 55 S BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 30 SSW P24 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE MQT 45 SSE ESC 10 SW GRR 35 SSE FDY 25 SSW MGW 35 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FMY 35 WNW DAB 30 W JAX 10 NW MGR 25 SW SEM 10 WNW JAN 40 SE SHV 45 NE CLL 30 SSE AUS LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 35 NW BGS 45 ESE AMA 35 SSW LBL 25 NNE EHA 35 S LAA 10 E RTN 30 NNW SAF 30 WNW GUP 10 NNW GCN SGU 45 NE ELY 50 WSW MLD 20 NW PIH 60 SW 27U 30 S LWS 20 WSW GEG 70 NNW 3TH 30 SSE FCA 10 NNE BZN 25 S BIL 35 WNW MLS 60 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK TO SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO THE CANADIAN BORDER... CORRECTED CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK AREA TO MATCH TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK ...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING TORNADOES... SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS FROM NRN TX...NWD INTO NEB....AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SWRN MN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF NRN-MOST SFC LOW IN CENTRAL SD WILL RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG VEERING AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT...WWD TO SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...IS RAPIDLY SURGING NWD ACROSS TX EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 05Z THIS AIRMASS HAD RETURNED TO THE HILL COUNTRY...NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX...NEWD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE 70S DEW POINTS WILL LIFT ACROSS OK AND KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE BY PEAK HEATING/CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/BROKEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS AFTERNOON HEATING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...WILL PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 60KT FROM NERN OK INTO NERN KS. DAMAGING TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WELL AFTER DARK ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE COMPLEXES COMPRISED OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS AS IT TRANSLATES INTO WRN IA/MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 12:42:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 07:42:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405291242.i4TCgSj17955@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291240 SWODY1 SPC AC 291236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S RSL 25 SW RSL 30 N HLC 25 SSE BBW 30 ENE BUB 20 ESE OFK 20 SSW OMA 20 WNW STJ 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN 45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 25 N BUB 15 E HON 40 NNE ATY 35 WSW STC 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 10 SE DSM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N CMX 45 SSW IMT 35 SSW RFD 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 NW TYR 40 NW HDO 20 NNW DRT 45 ENE P07 55 S BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 30 SSW P24 80 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE P07 25 NNE BGS 10 SW CDS 40 NW GAG 35 WSW GCK 35 S LAA 10 E RTN 30 NNW SAF 30 WNW GUP 10 NNW GCN SGU 45 NE ELY 55 WSW MLD 15 WNW PIH 55 SW 27U 40 S S80 30 SSW LWS 10 SW GEG 45 NE GEG 65 NNW 3TH 40 SSE FCA 10 N BZN 25 SSW BIL 65 ENE BIL 35 NW MLS 60 NNW GGW ...CONT... 10 SE PLN 20 SW HTL 25 ENE GRR 35 SSE FDY 25 SSW MGW 35 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NNW DAB 50 NW AYS 45 SSW ANB 45 ENE GWO 35 SE TXK 30 SW TYR 40 NNW CLL 40 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM THE RED RIVER OF SRN OKLAHOMA TO SWRN MINNESOTA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ...LARGE CITIES IN AND NEAR THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDE OMAHA AND LINCOLN, NEBRASKA...TOPEKA AND WICHITA, KANSAS...TULSA AND OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA... ...A FEW STRONG, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES, LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE HIGH AND MDT RISK AREAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING... MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW EMERGING FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS KS/OK/MO/AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE...NOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WILL DRIVE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE 60-90M 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THOUGH TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TODAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW INTENSIFIES NEAR DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT ON THE NEB/KS BORDER. DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW...FROM WCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB...INTO SWRN OK...AND ACROSS WEST TX. AS TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH EVENING... A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS WRN KS AND THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS/OK AND NCNTRL TX. ...SCNTRL NEB TO CNTRL OK... SCATTERED...MOSTLY NON-SEVERE...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS LEAD IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000 J/KG. MODEST CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE DRY LINE WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME CAPPING INVERSION AND PROMPT POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SCNTRL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR FAVORING TORNADOES. DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL FURTHER INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS SLY 850MB FLOW OF 40-45KT IS TOPPED BY WLY 500MB FLOW OF 50-60KT AND DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS. PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO THE DRYLINE...AND INITIALLY STRONG INHIBITION...WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN DISCRETE CELLS INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM KS SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER. STRONGER INHIBITION WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD SUGGEST MORE ISOLD...BUT STILL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...ACTIVITY FROM CNTRL OK INTO TX. FROM CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS...AN AREA OF HIGHER LONG-TRACK TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST INVOF FAVORABLY ORIENTED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER AREA FAVORABLE FOR MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ACROSS NRN/NERN KS. STRONG TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL STORM. ETA RUN FROM 06Z AND 00Z 4KM WRF APPEAR TO SUGGEST A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN TSTM POTENTIAL FROM PARTS OF ERN KS INTO NWRN MO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THESE TYPES OF OUTBREAKS TO EXHIBIT A BIMODAL PATTERN IN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH ONE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...AND THE SOUTHERN AREA NEAR THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. WHILE THIS SCENARIO MAY INDEED UNFOLD LATER TODAY...THERE IS INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT DIVIDING THE HIGH RISK AREA INTO TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME. ...NERN NEB/ERN SD/IA AND MN... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PARTS OF NEB AND THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WHILE STRONG CAPPING/INHIBITION IS NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING NEAR COLD FRONT OVER NWRN NEB...AND SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT OVER ERN SD...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE CAP AND PROMOTE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP EWD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY IS FCST TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED SFC-1KM SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADIC STORMS IN ADDITION TO A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FROM WRN MN INTO NWRN IA DURING THE EVENING WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 16:33:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 11:33:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405291633.i4TGXdj18194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291632 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S RSL HLC 40 NE MCK 30 ENE BUB 20 N SUX 25 SW DSM 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN 45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35 E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 30 NNW BUB 30 WNW HON 35 N ATY 20 SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 30 NNW OTM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W INL 30 NW OSH 35 W CGX 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 S DAL 40 NW HDO DRT 45 ESE P07 45 ESE BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25 SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 45 WNW BIS 60 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ELO 30 W MQT 35 N MKG 20 NNW FDY 10 SSE EKN 40 WSW HSE ...CONT... 10 NE SSI 40 SW MCN 15 NNE MGM 50 W SEM 30 NNW LUL 20 SW HEZ 15 WSW ESF 45 NW POE 15 N GGG 45 ESE DAL 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS 15 NNW CDS 40 ESE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50 WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEB...WRN IA...CNTRL AND ERN KS...NW MO AND CNTRL/NRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN/IA/MO/AR AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE PLNS AND MID/UPR MS VLY... ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE PLAINS AND MS VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW OVER GRT BASIN WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLNS TO THE OH/TN VLYS. HEIGHTS FALLS...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL U.S. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY THIS EVENING...AND THE LWR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE... EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM COMPLEX OF FEATURES ATTM OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN...SHOULD TRACK E/NE AND REACH THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS LATER TODAY AS MAIN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EDGES E INTO THE PLNS. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND TRAILING DRY LINE MOVES E ACROSS THE CNTRL/ SRN PLNS. ...NRN KS/NW MO CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO ERN SD/MN/IA... SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF SRN PLNS UPPER IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LWR MO/UPR MS VLY REGION LATER TODAY...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 IN SE SD/SW MN TO AOA 3500 J/KG IN SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS. BAND OF 40 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION /SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES E AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO PARTS OF IA/MN WI AND NW IL. FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL INTO THE ERN HALF OF ND AND NRN MN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES N OF WARM FRONT. ...CNTRL/SRN KS INTO OK/NW TX... MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK. AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING /PER 700 ANALYSIS/ WILL LIKELY FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. BUT EXTRAPOLATION OF FEATURES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING...AND INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF KS/OK AND NW TX. STRENGTHENING CAP MAY TEMPORARILY DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR WILL CREATE A STRONG CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR INTENSE/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS CAPPED IS BREACHED ALONG DRY LINE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. THIS WOULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO ERN OK...NW AR AND CNTRL AND SRN MO. ..CORFIDI.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat May 29 20:16:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 15:16:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405292016.i4TKGpj02247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292013 SWODY1 SPC AC 292009 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW END 25 SW RSL 30 E MCK 20 ESE BBW 20 SW YKN 30 E YKN 30 SW DSM 40 ENE CNU 35 WSW JLN 25 WNW MKO 40 SE OKC 35 NNW FSI 40 WNW END. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LTS 50 SW RSL 25 W HLC 30 SSE LBF 35 NNW BUB 25 NW HON 35 N ATY 20 SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 45 NNE ALO 20 NNE IRK SGF FSM DUA 30 ESE SPS 10 ESE LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 55 NNE EAU 35 W CGX 20 ESE BLV 55 NNW LIT 20 SSE DAL 40 NW HDO DRT ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 40 NNW SJT 15 N CDS 10 SSW DDC 30 NNW GCK 35 NE LAA 20 WSW LIC 45 WNW AKO 30 NNE SNY 20 SSE RAP 50 SE Y22 70 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS 40 WSW CDS 40 SE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50 WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 30 W MQT 35 NE MKG 40 NE DAY 45 SSW PSK 40 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 SE SAV 10 SSW MCN 35 SSE AUO 10 N CEW 40 NE MCB 50 SSE SHV 25 ESE ACT 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS INTO ERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND NWRN MO.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK...KS...NEB...ERN SD...SWRN MN...IA...WRN MO...AND NWRN AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX NWD ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...EWD INTO THE MID / UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THE PLAINS... DETAILS OF EVOLVING SCENARIO -- PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- REMAIN COMPLICATED AS SEVERAL DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS / VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER MAIN TROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THESE DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN SEVERAL RECENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SWOMCD/...OVERALL SETUP REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD. ATTM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER E CENTRAL SD SSWWD INTO NWRN KS WHERE SECOND LOW EXISTS. FRONT THEN EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS SERN CO. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SD LOW SEWD ACROSS SWRN IA INTO ERN MO. ADDITIONALLY...DRYLINE NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOW IN NWRN KS SWD TO NEAR THE TX / OK BORDER THEN SSWWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN N CENTRAL NEB NEAR COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS ERN CO NORTH OF THE PALMER RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...TCU / CBS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN OK / THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ALONG DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ELSEWHERE HAS REMAINED SUPPRESSED THUS FAR...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN NERN SD INCREASING TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK/ CONTINUES TO MOISTEN / DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT LIMITED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TROUGH APPROACHES -- WITH AZC /AZTEC NM/ PROFILER INDICATING 60 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS AT MID-LEVELS SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE...WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED -- WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT / LARGE TORNADOES POSSIBLE -- GIVEN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MO / IA AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE KS / OK REGION AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ..GOSS.. 05/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 01:08:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 29 May 2004 20:08:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405300108.i4U18Bj01881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300106 SWODY1 SPC AC 300102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW HUT 30 ENE RSL 50 ENE HLC 30 ESE BBW 15 N OFK 25 S SUX 50 ESE OMA MKC 30 SE CNU 20 NNE BVO 30 NE PNC 25 ESE P28 20 WNW HUT. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE GAG 40 SW RSL 45 NNE HLC 25 SSW BBW 40 ESE ANW MHE 30 N FRM 40 E MCW 20 NNE IRK 15 NW SGF 30 NW FYV 35 WSW MKO OKC 45 ESE GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CDS 30 WNW LTS 15 NW GAG 20 S DDC 45 NE GCK 45 W HLC 25 WSW MCK 20 E MHN 25 SW PIR 20 WNW MBG 50 NNW MOT 60 NNE DVL 50 NNE EAU 35 WNW CGX 20 ESE BLV 60 N LIT 15 ENE PRX 50 SSE CDS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAV 40 ENE MCN 25 W ATL 25 WNW BHM 40 SSE GLH 40 ENE SHV 35 SSE DAL 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS 20 WSW CDS 40 SE LBL 10 WSW LBL 35 NNE CAO 35 ESE RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50 WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 30 W MQT 35 NE MKG 40 NE DAY 45 SSW PSK 40 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB...SWRN IA...ERN KS AND EXTREME NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM CNTRL/NRN OK THROUGH ERN KS...WRN MO...ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD AND SWRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VLY... ...PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS H5 JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS NWRN OK...WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AND MO VLY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXIST FROM NERN KS INTO ERN NEB ATTM ALONG/EAST OF 986 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED SCNTRL NEB. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SERN NEB AND STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXIST FROM ERN KS INTO SERN NEB. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50-60 KT RANGE WITH AXIS AIMED INTO THE LOWER MO RVR VLY THROUGH LATE EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS AND MOVE ENEWD INTO PARTS OF IA AND SWRN MN WITH DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLD TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS. 00 UTC SOUNDING FROM NORMAN SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE ISOLD THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALLER MCS AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO OVERNIGHT. ...LOWER OH VLY... LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY HAS BEEN PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO FOCUS A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY. VWP FROM PADUCAH SUGGESTS 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF AROUND 125 M2/S2...MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AND PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..RACY.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 06:02:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 01:02:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405300602.i4U62fj29751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300600 SWODY1 SPC AC 300556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE FSM 30 ENE FYV 10 WNW SGF 45 NE COU 30 E UIN 15 WNW DEC 30 S MTO 40 NNE PAH 15 W DYR 25 WNW MEM 60 WSW MEM 20 SSE LIT 10 WNW HOT 40 ESE FSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE PGO 35 NE JLN 35 ENE IRK 40 WSW RFD 15 SSW CGX 40 WNW MIE 25 NE SDF 15 W BNA 30 WSW UOX 45 S PBF 45 N TXK 10 ENE PGO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE 0A8 45 NW MEI 35 NW ESF 20 S LFK 60 E ACT 10 SSE MLC 25 SE OJC 25 NNE CID 30 NE RST 30 SSW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SW IWD 45 NW MKG 40 SE DTW 30 SE YNG 35 SW MGW 25 SSE 5I3 20 SE RMG ANB 20 NE 0A8. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 20 NNE VCT SAT 60 WNW AUS 20 S MWL 40 SSE PNC 15 NNE ICT 30 SSE LBF 50 ESE AIA 15 NW PHP 30 SSE MBG 45 N DVL ...CONT... 30 NNW JHW 15 ESE NEL ...CONT... JAX 35 SE GNV PIE. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SRN MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...AND SRN IL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF AR...CNTRL MO...MUCH OF IL...WRN IND...WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NWRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX AND THE SRN STATES INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONGEST JETSTREAM ENERGY REMAINED ON WEST SIDE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. ORIENTATION OF TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VLYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE NWD FROM THE DAKS NWD TO SRN CANADA. ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MS VLY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AR. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE MID MS VLY DURING THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST...MID/UPPER OH VLY AND SERN STATES. ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS SWWD INTO THE OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...LOWER-MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS AND THE OZARKS... SIGNIFICANT H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VLY AREA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OH VLY BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MAY REDUCE INSOLATION FARTHER NORTH...A NEARLY CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY VCNTY THE COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN-SWRN MO AND ERN OK. GIVEN POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...TSTMS ARE APT TO QUICKLY GROW INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WITHIN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO PROVE ADEQUATE FOR THE RISK OF STRONG LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE VCNTY ANY SUB-SYNOPTIC LOWS THAT MIGRATE NEWD FROM AR INTO SCNTRL/SERN MO. TSTMS WILL BE MORE ISOLD FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN TX...BUT COULD ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IL. FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID MS VLYS INTO THE EVENING. THEN...ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A SEVERE MCS OR TWO AND BEGIN FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO PARTS OF THE TN VLY LATER AT NIGHT WITH THE RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. NRN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL PROBABLY PIVOT ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...UPPER MS VLY... SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...TSTM LINE SEGMENTS COULD DEVELOP THAT COULD GIVE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MID/UPPER OH VLY... CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL EXIST ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGIONS. MIDLEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF DEEPENING CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. BUT...GIVEN A TSTM...PRESENCE OF AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 13:05:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 08:05:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405301305.i4UD5Jj21084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301302 SWODY1 SPC AC 301259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE PAH 40 S MKL 20 WNW ELD 25 NW TXK 35 SSE PGO 10 S FSM 40 NNE SGF 40 NE UIN 20 NNW MMO 35 E MMO 30 N DNV 25 SSW HUF 30 SE PAH. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSL GLH 20 SSW ELD 40 NW TYR 35 WSW PRX 30 SSE MKO 35 WNW SGF 35 W UIN 25 W MLI 30 N DBQ 15 NE LNR 40 ESE MKE 25 NNW FWA 20 NE SDF 20 ESE BWG 25 NE MSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MGM 30 SW LUL 25 SSE ESF 45 E CLL 40 WSW CLL 25 SW AUS 40 NNE HDO 30 SSE JCT 25 NNW JCT 15 WNW BWD 10 SW DAL 25 SW MLC 10 E OJC 35 N DSM 15 S MKT 30 SW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SSW IWD 35 ESE MTW 40 SE DTW 20 SSE CAK 30 ENE PKB 25 SSE 5I3 25 SE RMG 20 WNW LGC 25 NNW MGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JHW 15 ESE NEL ...CONT... SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 N SRQ ...CONT... 45 NW DRT 40 SW SJT 40 NE SJT 20 W MWL 20 SW ADM 35 WSW TUL 35 NE PNC 40 NNE ICT 30 SE HSI 15 NNW MHN 15 NW PHP 45 S BIS 50 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CTB 25 SSE HLN 27U 80 S S80 BKE 30 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR/SERN MO/CNTRL AND SRN IL/WRN KY AND WRN TN/NWRN MS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK OVER SRN WI/NRN IL/IND/KY/TN/NWRN MS/NERN TX/SERN OK AND CNTRL MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER MI... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ARKANSAS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING... ...CITIES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA INCLUDE SPRINGFIELD, IL...ST. LOUIS, MO...LITTLE ROCK, AR...AND MEMPHIS, TN... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNWIND FROM THE TROUGH AXIS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE OH VALLEY NNWWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN CANADA. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP EAST WITH THE TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...A BROAD BAND OF 60-80KT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ATOP A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM AR/MO TO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL ACT ON THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EAST FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING TO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS BY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...AS WELL AS THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ...AR/MO/IL TO IND... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S... WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG/ FROM TXK TO WRN IL BY THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT/DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATION SPREADING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WEAK CAP...AND STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FAMILIES OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK E/NEWD ACROSS NRN AR/ERN MO AND WRN IL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS ALL POSSIBLE. BY EVENING...LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND...ESPECIALLY FROM MO BOOTHEEL TO IL. THIS SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE PATTERN OF THE MASS FIELDS IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...AND FCST OF STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE BACK OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ...EXTREME SERN OK/NERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY... WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FROM NERN TX TO MIDDLE TN WILL ALSO BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND FOCUS ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN OK INTO WRN AR AND NERN TX LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES BUT ACTIVITY MAY THEN BACKBUILD AND BECOME LINEAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LATE EVENING ON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...AND STRONG WLY COMPONENT OF TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...A FAST MOVING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXTEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN ETA/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE FROM SRN AR TO THE TN VALLEY DURING THE LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVER ERN SD THIS MORNING...A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SRN IND. AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT...AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN LAKES/NORTHEAST. NONETHELESS...STRONG ASCENT ACROSS WARM FRONT...BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO WRN OH. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun May 30 16:43:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 11:43:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405301643.i4UGhhj24517@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301641 SWODY1 SPC AC 301638 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE HOP 60 E MKL 35 NNW TUP 40 N GWO 35 ENE ELD TXK 40 SW PGO 30 WNW FYV 45 NNE JLN 30 ENE IRK 40 WNW MMO 35 E MMO 30 N DNV 35 NE EVV 10 ENE HOP. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE MSL 35 E GWO 45 SSW ELD TYR 35 WSW PRX 25 NNE MKO 40 N JLN 35 SSW P35 25 SE CID 45 W LNR 25 ESE VOK 40 ESE MKE 35 W FWA 20 NE SDF 20 ESE BWG 25 NE MSL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MGM 30 SW LUL 25 SSE ESF 35 WSW POE 45 E CLL 25 WSW CLL 10 W AUS 45 WNW AUS 55 SE BWD 25 ESE SEP 10 SW DAL MLC 25 SSE OJC 30 WSW DSM 15 S MKT 30 SW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SSW IWD 35 ESE MTW 40 SE DTW 20 SSE CAK 30 ENE PKB 25 SSE 5I3 25 SE RMG 20 WNW LGC 25 NNW MGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 45 SSW BWD 35 SSW ADM 35 SSW TUL 30 ESE EMP 25 E MHK 45 S EAR 20 WSW LBF 35 W VTN 35 NE PIR 35 W FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN 10 NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI ...CONT... 15 WNW BUF 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 N SRQ. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO MUCH OF AR...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN KY AND WRN TN.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL IN...INTO CENTRAL KY...MID TN..NRN MS INTO NERN TX AND ERN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OH AND THE ERN OH AND TN VALLEY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.... ...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE OZARKS AND TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION LIKELY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SERN CO/NERN NM ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. BAND OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MO/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT HIGHER LEVELS...PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN MN SHOULD LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. A NEW SURFACE WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER NRN/ERN MO OR CENTRAL IL...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH CO/NM IMPULSE. BUT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS...AND THAT FROM ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY...CONTINUES TO MODIFY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS. ...AR...MO..IL INTO IN..KY AND TN... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN SD SWD THROUGH NWRN MO...THEN SWWD INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. ALSO...WARM FRONT REACHES FROM NERN IL SEWD INTO SERN KY...WITH A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM THE MKC AREA THROUGH W CENTRAL IL TO JUST S OF THE CHI AREA. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SFC BASED CAPE ALREADY BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...AND LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -9. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RUNNING AROUND 40 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8C/KM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MO EXTENDING SWD/SWWD INTO AR TOWARDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN/CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE EWD...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN AND CENTRAL MO. ALSO...DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVER WHICH MAY ENHANCE A BOUNDARY LATER TODAY ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO WRN KY AND WRN TN. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE HIGH/MODERATE HIGH RISK AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...UVVS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN AR/SERN MO INT WRN KY...WRN AND POSSIBLY MID TN TONIGHT. ..CORFIDI/MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 05/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 00:52:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 19:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405310052.i4V0qlj09234@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310051 SWODY1 SPC AC 310048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW UNI 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW LOZ 25 NNW MSL 50 ESE GWO 25 ENE ELD 40 NNW ELD 20 E MDH 55 NW LAF 20 ESE CGX 45 SE AZO 40 SSW FDY 45 WNW UNI. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HTS 30 WSW CHA 25 NNW TCL 20 ENE JAN 40 W MLU 20 N GGG MDH 35 NE SLO 50 S CGX 20 NNE CGX 15 W JXN 25 NNE FDY 25 W ZZV 30 SW HTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CRE 45 NNW AHN 20 N LUL 35 SE LFK AUS 60 E JCT 25 SSW DAL 35 SSE PGO 55 NNW POF 25 SW DEC 25 E OTM 35 SE RST 30 NNE MSP 65 SSW DLH 30 E MTW 20 ENE CLE 25 NW PIT 10 W MGW 15 NE PSK 40 ESE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 15 S ACY ...CONT... 30 SW CHS 30 SSE AHN 15 WNW MCB 35 NNE VCT 10 SSW LRD ...CONT... 45 SE DRT 20 NNW DAL 30 NE HRO VIH 35 ENE MKC 35 NE MHK 20 WNW SLN 45 W HLC 45 E SNY 35 NNE CDR 15 S BKX 15 SE RWF 30 NW STC 40 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN 10 NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN/MIDDLE TN...MUCH OF KY...IND...ERN IL AND WRN OH... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VLY TO THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND CNTRL GREAT LAKES EWD TO THE CAROLINAS... ...THE LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE MIDWEST...TN VLY AND SRN STATES OVERNIGHT... ...MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MS VLY... COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED OVER A LARGE AREA. AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST SWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND IS RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF STORM MODES. A 40 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH THE 50-70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. TWO AREAS OF HIGHER TORNADO RISKS EXIST. ONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND TO KY AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN WRN TN SWD TO SRN AR/NW MS. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIMES TO SUPPORT POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICT DISTINCT PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA AND LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...A MORE LINEAR MODE TO THE STORMS HAS EVOLVED FARTHER TO THE WEST FROM THE CHICAGO AREA TO NW AR. POTENTIAL FOR VERY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE MIDWEST INTO KY IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK. ANOTHER POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGING MCS WITH TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE OUT OF SRN AR AND TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS EVENING. FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS ON THE VARIOUS SEVERE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND WATCHES. ...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VLY... NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE MOVED ATOP THE COOLER AIR LOCATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN INTO ERN IA. AIR MASS JUST EAST OF THIS LINE WAS ABLE TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS EVENING AND DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. ...ERN TX... 00 UTC CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT PROBABLY NOSES UP INTO ECNTRL TX. A FEW TSTMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX AS THE CAP WAS BREACHED. THE BACKBUILDING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN LA LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREATS. ...CAROLINAS/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY SEEM TO BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN CHARACTER. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 05:52:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 00:52:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405310552.i4V5qrj32493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310550 SWODY1 SPC AC 310547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ILM 15 S FLO 35 W DHN 20 WNW MSY 10 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 10 SSE VCT 20 SE NIR 30 W NIR 40 ENE COT 40 NNE HDO 20 ESE BWD 25 SSE FTW 35 N TYR 35 SW ELD 45 SE GWO 15 SSW CSV 10 S JKL UNI 25 NE DAY 25 W MIE 10 NNW MTO 30 W SPI 35 WSW BRL 45 NNE DSM 30 NNW FRM 35 SSE AXN 10 ENE BRD 65 S DLH 10 WSW CWA 10 W MBS 15 E ERI 10 SW BFD 20 NE AOO 35 NNW BWI 30 SSW ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 E SJT 30 N ABI 25 SSW DUA PGO 15 S LIT 25 SE POF 55 SSW STL 40 ENE COU 15 S TOP 25 NNE CNK 50 WSW YKN 25 NNE PIR 20 N DIK 55 N ISN ...CONT... MSS 20 WNW EEN 15 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ELONGATING TO COVER MOST OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. BAND OF STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE SRN STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT RETREATING INTO CNTRL PA AND DE. TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS ERN TX AS A DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL TX. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ONGOING VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD INTO THE OH VLY. THIS PUTS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERE RISKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS COULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND ANY HEATING WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. GIVEN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL EITHER CONTINUE FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...OR COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS IN INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. ...SRN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS... POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE IN QUESTION AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE BOUNDARIES ARE APT TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TAIL END SHOULD STALL ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL-GA-LA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY...BUT FRONT WILL BE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST H5 FLOW. CONTINUED VERY MOIST INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TORNADOES. ...CNTRL/ERN TX... THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST CAP SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SWWD MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT BY MID- AFTERNOON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR... SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. GIVEN SLIGHT NW COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST NORTH OF VICTORIA LATER IN THE EVENING. ...UPPER MS VLY/ERN DAKS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER CNTRL MN WHILE EXPANDING IN A WNW-ESE FASHION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND DAKS. ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 18C OR LESS WILL RESIDE OVER RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S DURING PEAK HEATING FROM THE DAKS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST...PRIMARILY BENEATH AND JUST E OF THE LOW IN THE UPPER MS VLY...AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 13:06:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 08:06:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405311306.i4VD6hj02526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311303 SWODY1 SPC AC 311300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CHS 55 NNE AYS 20 E ABY 20 WSW GPT 10 WSW LFT 60 SE AUS 40 S AUS 55 NNW SAT 60 S BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 30 SW TXK 25 E GWO 15 NE GAD 20 SE AVL 50 WNW GSO 15 NE PSK 15 NE BKW 30 NE HTS 25 WSW DAY 50 ESE MMO 30 E ALO 15 E MKT 35 E STC 55 SSE DLH 20 ENE RHI 20 E MBL 10 N MTC ...CONT... 60 NNE CLE 10 WSW DUJ 15 SSW CXY 15 S DOV 20 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 WNW EEN 20 WSW HYA ...CONT... 40 NW LRD 40 E SJT 25 ENE ABI 25 WSW DUA 40 S PGO 10 NNW PBF 45 WNW MSL 60 ENE MKL 35 SSE PAH 25 W VIH 10 W MKC 25 SW LNK 50 NNE BUB 30 WNW PIR 20 N DIK 55 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN VA WITH A SFC TROUGH LOCATED NORTH TO SOUTH IN CNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC. A STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO ERN VA AND ECNTRL NC THIS MORNING. THE LINE HAS HAD A LONG HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS. AS TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS MORNING...INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HELP THE LINE TO REINTENSIFY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT. AS THE INSTABILITY GOES UP THIS MORNING...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AS A SPEED MAX OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MTNS MOVES EWD ACROSS VA AND NC. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH OF RICHMOND VA EXTENDING SWWD TO CHARLOTTE NC (REF MCD 1015). AS THE LINE REORGANIZES...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND EXIST UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM WRN TN TO CNTRL TX. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES ARE MOVING SEWD ACROSS LA...MS AND AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE ADVECTING NWD FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC HEATING...THE LINE SHOULD REINTENSIFY AND THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE. THE LINE WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS ENHANCING THE SHEAR. BUT AS THE JET DRIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SFC INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN TX AND SW LA...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE LAKE CHARLES 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND THIS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY MOVE SWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS ERN ND. IN ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH IS ORIENTED WNW TO ESE FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS NW MN TO SRN LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. IN ADDITION...SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...COLD AIR ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 16:48:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 11:48:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405311648.i4VGmEj15910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311646 SWODY1 SPC AC 311643 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 20 SE DUJ 15 SSW CXY 15 NW DOV 35 ESE DOV ...CONT... 20 NE SSI 30 ESE VLD 20 N AQQ 35 NNE BVE 20 SE 7R4 10 N GLS 40 SSE AUS 55 NNW SAT 60 S BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 10 S TXK 25 NW HEZ 15 N LUL 30 WSW AUO 45 NE MCN 45 ESE AND 45 NE HKY 15 NE PSK 25 ENE CRW 20 ESE CMH 40 NNW DAY 45 NW DNV 30 SSW RFD 30 WSW LNR 25 E MKT 55 ESE BRD 15 ESE DLH 20 ENE RHI 20 SW PLN 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 40 N JCT 10 W MWL 45 S ADM 25 SSE PGO 25 NNE PBF 10 WSW TUP 25 NW HSV 40 NW CSV 35 E LEX 35 SE LUK 40 NNE SDF 45 NNW EVV 15 SE STL 30 WSW JEF 45 S OJC 30 SSW MHK 30 NNW MCK 25 SSW MHN VTN 25 ENE 9V9 15 SW RWF 30 NE RWF 25 SW BRD 50 WNW AXN 25 ESE JMS 20 S DVL 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST/THE SERN AND MID ATL STATES AND THE UPR GRT LKS... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH EVOLVED DURING THE LAST 24 HRS OVER THE UPPER MS VLY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NRN MN WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SWEEPS ENE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. BAND OF 70 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE TN VLY TODAY...WHILE SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT LOWER LEVELS...OCCLUDED FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD LIFT N TO THE UPPER GRT LKS TODAY...SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WSWLY ACROSS MUCH OF MI. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IN SRN VA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM TN VLY SPEED MAX. FARTHER S AND W...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF CST AND SERN STATES /LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE/ WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIME CONVECTIVE FOCUS IN THOSE AREAS. ...CNTRL GULF CST NEWD TO CSTL CAROLINAS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN LA ENE INTO S GA LATER TODAY /REF WW 353/ AS HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION OF VERY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODERATE WSWLY DEEP SHEAR. ORIENTATION OF SHEAR PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND FAIRLY LONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED COLD CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY ALSO FAVOR TRAINING AND/OR BACK-BUILDING STORMS ACROSS SRN LA/MS. FARTHER NE...STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE GA/SC/NC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. ORIENTATION OF SHEAR RELATIVE TO BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY WITH DAMAGING WIND /REF WW 354/ THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...MID ATL STATES... A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL EXIST INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE/STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DELMARVA REGION. DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...THUS STORM COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION ATTM. BUT BAND OF 50+ KT WLY FLOW OVERSPREADING REGION AHEAD OF TN VLY SPEED MAX WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING CONVECTION ...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR FRONT. ...UPR GRT LKS... A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT INVOF OCCLUSION LIFTING N ACROSS ERN MN/WI AND MI. NRN IL VORT MAX WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS REGION...BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN AREAS WHERE SUNSHINE CAN RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF DIURNAL...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND...IN NRN/ERN LWR MI...POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. ..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon May 31 20:08:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 15:08:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200405312008.i4VK8rj00350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312005 SWODY1 SPC AC 312002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW JHW 15 WNW DUJ 25 SE AOO 20 ENE BWI 35 ESE DOV ...CONT... 10 NNW MLB 30 WNW ORL 25 E CTY 20 NNE AQQ 35 NNE BVE 20 SE 7R4 10 N GLS 50 W HOU 10 W AUS 55 SE BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 30 N TYR 25 SW SHV 30 N MCB 25 SSW MGM 70 SSW AGS 15 NE CAE 15 S HKY 30 ENE SSU 35 ESE MGW 30 NW HLG 30 W FDY 45 NW DNV 45 W MMO 35 NW DBQ 35 SE MSP 55 ESE BRD 15 ESE DLH 20 ENE RHI 25 E ESC 20 NNE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BRO 30 SSE ALI 40 NW VCT 30 E SAT 50 W HDO 50 ENE DRT 50 NE JCT 15 NNE BWD 10 W MWL 35 N DAL 35 SW TXK 30 SSE GLH 25 W BHM 45 ENE CHA 35 E 5I3 15 NE CRW UNI 25 W CMH 10 SSW MIE 35 N SLO 35 ENE JEF 15 SSE OJC 30 SSW MHK 20 NNW MCK 35 E DGW BIL 85 E LWT 40 NNW MLS 40 S REJ 10 SE PHP 30 ENE 9V9 15 SW RWF 30 NE RWF 25 SW BRD 50 WNW AXN 25 ESE JMS 20 S DVL 75 NNE DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND GREAT LAKES... ...GULF COAST REGION... COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO NORTH FL...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. AIRMASS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INTO BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES AS WELL AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE SOME RISK OF TORNADOES. STORMS MAY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL...WHERE VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL AID THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...EAST TX... AN EXTREMELY MOIST/UNSTABLE SURFACE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG. LITTLE CINH REMAINS IN THIS REGION...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING ENSUES. ...DELMARVA REGION... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS RESULTING IN A POCKET OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL VA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST... SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HART.. 05/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.