[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150605
SWODY1
SPC AC 150603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
ANJ 15 SW BLV 45 SSE DDC 10 WNW LBL 30 NNE TAD 25 NE DEN 25 NE MHN
ATY 20 NNW RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SBY 45 N SHD 25 NW PKB CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT
25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG SAF GCN LAS 25 SSW BFL 25
SSW MER 10 SW TVL 10 WSW WMC ENV 40 SE EVW 25 ESE RWL 30 N DGW 25
NNW PHP 35 E Y22 40 N DIK 35 WSW GDV 35 SE 3TH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT...
40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 20 E SBN CLE 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN
STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER SRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MT/ WILL RAPIDLY EJECT EWD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP
EWD ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER WRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY
BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...AND WHAT POTENTIAL
NEGATIVE IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON THE INFLOW AIRMASS AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB/IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THESE
CONCERNS...LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS
AREA.

EVOLVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN NEB. SYSTEM HAS
BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO  AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
COMPLEX WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL
KS INTO CNTRL MO...LIKELY OVERTURNING UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS.

THIS COMPLEX MAY WELL CONTINUE EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONT INTO
NRN/CNTRL MO LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY INITIALLY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MT.
INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE
NWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. WHEN COUPLED WITH
DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN
ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OR DEVELOPING ON IT/S RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LARGE
HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AND POINTS TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WW INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
PA/NJ MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
AIRMASS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON
/LARGELY AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST.
STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

...UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 15/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW
ALONG THE TX COAST. ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
AHEAD OF SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW
SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.