[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011740
SWODY1
SPC AC 011737

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW
ORF 25 NE TRI MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20
SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 N DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE PSX 20 ENE
SAT 45 NE JCT 40 NNE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 35 N SLO 20 S
FDY 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB
15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 35 SSW SJT
60 S CDS 15 NW CDS 55 ENE AMA 70 S LBL 15 S EHA 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC
25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35
WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25
SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 SE AKO 30 S HLC 30 ENE HUT 40 SSW SZL 25 WSW
JEF 45 SW UIN 40 NE IRK 20 ESE DSM 35 SW FOD 15 ESE SPW 30 SE RWF 35
E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 N BML PSM ...CONT... 20 NE
ECG 50 NNE HKY 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL
STATES...THE OH VLY...THE SRN PLNS AND THE GULF CST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MODULATED BY
MAINLY SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSING VORT MAXIMA IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

FEATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LEVELS. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
NOW ORGANIZING IN THE LWR MO VLY EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO THE LWR OH
VLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  FARTHER SE...OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST.

...NERN/MID ATL STATES...
SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARE DESTABILIZING
REGION W OF WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REDEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NJ AND THE
LWR HUDSON VLY.  WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP ACTIVITY WIDELY SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  BUT BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW...APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PA/WV...AND
40 + KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS IN ERN PA/NY.  THE
ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN ERN PART OF OUTLOOK...BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY TONIGHT.

...OH VLY...
TWO IMPULSES OF NOTE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ARE APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL U.S....ONE OVER SW IA AND ONE NEAR HUF.
 BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS AREAS OF ENHANCED
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY E OR ESE AND
STRONG HEATING OCCURS OVER REGION.

AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY 
FROM SRN IN/IL INTO PARTS OF KY AND SE MO/NRN AR.  WHILE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE WEAK INVOF DEVELOPING TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN THIS REGION...
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY.  FARTHER N...A
SECONDARY AREA FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EMERGE IN IA/NRN IL
AND NRN  MO.  WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE
OF SEVERE THREAT.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS REGION.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING
SURFACE WINDS.

...CNTRL/N TX AND OK NEWD INTO OZARKS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR /MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ INVOF WEAK THERMAL/LEE LOW OVER N
CNTRL TX.  OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT....AND IN E TX ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW FROM LA/MS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING
THE PANHANDLES REGION CONTINUES ESEWD.

SETUP IN THESE AREAS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S...WITH EXCEPTION THAT
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE DIRECTED A BIT FARTHER N AND W. 
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE
HAIL/WIND-PRODUCING STORMS IN TX...WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN OK AND NRN AR. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT SHOULD
MOVE ESE TOWARD NW LA/SE OK/SWRN AR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.