From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 02:14:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 21:14:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406010214.i512Emj05598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010103 SWODY1 SPC AC 010100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FDY 20 ENE BMG 45 E SLO 20 W STL 30 SW SPI 30 NNW LAF 25 NNW FWA 30 WNW FDY 25 SW FDY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ORF 25 NW RIC 35 WSW DCA 25 SSE BWI 10 ESE SBY 25 ENE WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DAB 15 SW CTY ...CONT... 25 S BPT 25 WSW TPL 20 E SEP 10 NE DAL 10 NNE GGG 15 WSW ESF MOB 30 ENE PFN 25 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSX 30 S VCT 35 WNW NIR 30 N COT 25 NNE HDO 60 ENE JCT BWD 40 ENE ABI 40 S SPS 45 SW DUA 15 NW TXK 10 S GWO 35 SE AGS 15 SE GSO 20 SSW CHO 40 NNE SSU 15 NNE BKW 25 SE HTS 15 WNW UNI 30 SSW CMH 20 NE LUK 20 NNE SDF 30 N PAH 25 W TBN 20 NNE MKC 25 E RHI 120 NE MQT ...CONT... 20 SW BUF 35 ESE PSB 20 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 25 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO THE GULF COASTAL REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...EAST/SOUTH TX... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL AND ERN TX AND ARE BEING MAINTAINED VCNTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS FEED ON MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DESPITE THE 0-1KM SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK. EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL MCS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN TX WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. SRN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...AND MAY CARRY THE STORMS INTO PARTS OF SERN TX AND WCNTRL LA OVERNIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM NERN TX INTO PARTS OF LA AS A WEAK SSWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH IN SCNTRL TX THAT MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. ...GULF COASTAL AREA... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARC FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS THEN NWWD INTO SRN LA. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN FL AND HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MODE. AIR PARCELS FEEDING THE STORMS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS COULD REMAIN INTACT TO THE NERN COAST OF FL THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. UPSTREAM...SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SCNTRL LA HAS BEEN FEEDING ON A RESERVOIR OF 2000-2500 MLCAPES AND MAY MOVE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED SEWD INTO SERN LA THIS EVENING. THIS STORM WILL HAVE THE RISK OF ISOLD TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT THE COVERAGE OUGHT TO REMAIN ISOLD. OVERNIGHT...A FEW TSTMS...PROBABLY ELEVATED...MAY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS AS WEAK SSWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ ADVECTS INSTABILITY NWD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY AUGMENT LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN ISOLD STORMS. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... LIMITED INSOLATION...OWING TO HIGH CLOUD CANOPY...HAS DIMINISHED RATE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. 00 UTC WALLOPS SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY 445 J/KG MLCAPES AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS TRIED TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NRN VA/CNTRL MD. GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY TEND TO BRING HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEEM TO BE REDUCED. ...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST... A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ROTATING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW ACROSS WI...IL AND NRN MO THIS EVENING. CENTRAL IL 00Z RAOB SAMPLED A MINUS 19C H5 TEMPERATURE ATOP NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED TSTMS. MAIN SEVERE RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO WLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERWISE...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKEN AS COOLING TAKES PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 05:53:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 00:53:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406010553.i515r7j07915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010551 SWODY1 SPC AC 010548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 45 NNE VCT 55 SSE AUS 30 SE SAT 35 SE HDO 10 W HDO 50 W TPL 20 E SEP 40 SW SPS 30 ESE LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW PGO 40 SSW HRO 10 NNW POF 40 E BMG 45 N DAY 45 NNW MFD 15 WNW YNG 25 NNE PIT 10 SE MGW 30 SSW CRW 45 NNE CSV 45 NE CBM 30 NNE JAN 15 ENE MCB 15 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DOV 30 SSW PSK 60 NW AND 20 NE AHN 15 NNW AGS CRE ...CONT... 45 N BML 25 NE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DRT 55 S JCT 55 WSW SPS 10 WSW CSM 10 SSW GAG 35 W EHA 40 NE ALS 30 ESE MTJ 45 NNE GJT 40 SW LND 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 40 S LMT 50 WNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 30 ENE LWS 50 SW BIL 35 W GCC 30 W BFF 20 WSW AKO 25 SSW CNK 35 SW OJC 45 WNW TBN 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 10 SSW CID 50 SSW FOD 20 SSE STC 10 N MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX/WRN GULF COAST NEWD TO THE OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL DISLODGE THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA WHILE REDEVELOPING NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN UPPER TROUGH... WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NCNTRL/CNTRL/ERN TX... ONGOING TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN TX WILL FORCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SWD INTO SERN TX EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN AND LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD AGAIN ADVECT NWWD ALONG/ EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND AS THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES AND THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX AS THE CAP IS BREACHED. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR. INCREASING NWLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY CARRY A DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING MCS OR TWO AS FAR SE AS THE UPPER TX COAST OR SWRN LA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VLY... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC FARTHER NORTH. TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NWD WITH TIME TUESDAY EVENING WITHIN ENHANCED WARM/ MOIST ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO OK-AR-TN-KY. TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW... BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...MID-UPPER OH VLY... STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS. TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW TSTMS. THE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 13:06:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 08:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406011306.i51D6Dj16046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011304 SWODY1 SPC AC 011300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 35 S AUS 40 SSE BWD 50 NE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 10 SSE HUF 40 NNW CMH 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 20 NNE PBG 10 NW PSF 20 SSE POU 15 W NEL 15 W DCA 20 ENE 5I3 MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 S CDS 50 WNW CSM 40 W GAG 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 ESE AKO SLN 40 S SZL 25 WSW JEF 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 20 WSW CID 35 SSE FOD 30 NW FOD 30 W MKT 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 30 E SBY 20 S PSK 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.... ...E TX/SE OK... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX AND AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...MAINTAINING 40 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS STORMS ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS NE TX AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PRESENT ACROSS NE NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 50 KT ACROSS SE OK AND THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB) AT 06Z ACROSS SE OK. GFS AND ETA BOTH AGREE DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. IF AN MCS CAN GENERATE...IT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN AR INTO LA LATE TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALREADY IN PLACE...SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EARLY STORM INITIATION WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ETA/GFS AND RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -17C) SHOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...GULF COAST... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL THIS MORNING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL. MLCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS COUPLED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN MS IS SHOWING SOME BOWING AND IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 13:59:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 08:59:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406011359.i51Dxpj18693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011357 SWODY1 SPC AC 011354 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG 10 NW PSF 20 SSE POU 15 W NEL 15 W DCA 20 ENE 5I3 MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 20 S CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE PSX 35 S AUS 40 SSE BWD 50 NE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 10 SSE HUF 40 NNW CMH 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 S CDS 50 WNW CSM 40 W GAG 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 ESE AKO SLN 40 S SZL 25 WSW JEF 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 20 WSW CID 35 SSE FOD 30 NW FOD 30 W MKT 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 30 E SBY 20 S PSK 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.... CORRECTED GRAPHICS FOR SLIGHT AREA ACROSS NRN FL ...E TX/SE OK... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX AND AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...MAINTAINING 40 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS STORMS ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS NE TX AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PRESENT ACROSS NE NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 50 KT ACROSS SE OK AND THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB) AT 06Z ACROSS SE OK. GFS AND ETA BOTH AGREE DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. IF AN MCS CAN GENERATE...IT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN AR INTO LA LATE TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALREADY IN PLACE...SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EARLY STORM INITIATION WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ETA/GFS AND RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -17C) SHOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...GULF COAST... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL THIS MORNING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL. MLCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS COUPLED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN MS IS SHOWING SOME BOWING AND IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 17:43:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 12:43:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406011743.i51Hh2j03645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011740 SWODY1 SPC AC 011737 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ORF 25 NE TRI MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 N DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE PSX 20 ENE SAT 45 NE JCT 40 NNE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 35 N SLO 20 S FDY 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 35 SSW SJT 60 S CDS 15 NW CDS 55 ENE AMA 70 S LBL 15 S EHA 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 SE AKO 30 S HLC 30 ENE HUT 40 SSW SZL 25 WSW JEF 45 SW UIN 40 NE IRK 20 ESE DSM 35 SW FOD 15 ESE SPW 30 SE RWF 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 N BML PSM ...CONT... 20 NE ECG 50 NNE HKY 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL STATES...THE OH VLY...THE SRN PLNS AND THE GULF CST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MODULATED BY MAINLY SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSING VORT MAXIMA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. FEATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LEVELS. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT NOW ORGANIZING IN THE LWR MO VLY EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FARTHER SE...OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. ...NERN/MID ATL STATES... SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARE DESTABILIZING REGION W OF WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REDEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NJ AND THE LWR HUDSON VLY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY WIDELY SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PA/WV...AND 40 + KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS IN ERN PA/NY. THE ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN PART OF OUTLOOK...BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY TONIGHT. ...OH VLY... TWO IMPULSES OF NOTE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL U.S....ONE OVER SW IA AND ONE NEAR HUF. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS AREAS OF ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY E OR ESE AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS OVER REGION. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN IN/IL INTO PARTS OF KY AND SE MO/NRN AR. WHILE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK INVOF DEVELOPING TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN THIS REGION... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EMERGE IN IA/NRN IL AND NRN MO. WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT. ...CNTRL GULF CST... OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ...CNTRL/N TX AND OK NEWD INTO OZARKS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR /MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ INVOF WEAK THERMAL/LEE LOW OVER N CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT....AND IN E TX ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW FROM LA/MS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING THE PANHANDLES REGION CONTINUES ESEWD. SETUP IN THESE AREAS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S...WITH EXCEPTION THAT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE DIRECTED A BIT FARTHER N AND W. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE HAIL/WIND-PRODUCING STORMS IN TX...WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN OK AND NRN AR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TOWARD NW LA/SE OK/SWRN AR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:16:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:16:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406012015.i51KFtj03605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012010 SWODY1 SPC AC 012006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB 45 NNW CEW TOI 20 S CSG 20 ESE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 25 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S WAL PSK UOX GWO 30 WSW HUM ...CONT... 25 SE BPT 35 ESE CLL CLL 25 ESE AUS 25 E SAT SAT 50 SSW JCT 45 SW JCT SJT LTS 35 N OKC TUL BLV 40 N DNV 30 NNW HLG DUJ 25 ENE ROC ...CONT... 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BML 10 SE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ECG 10 S DAN 20 NNE AVL AND 40 NW CHS 30 E CHS ...CONT... 20 SSE P07 35 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF DRO U28 SLC TWF 60 NNE BOI 50 NW 27U BZN WRL 35 SSW BFF 30 SSW GLD DDC P28 JLN VIH 35 WNW STL 20 SSW UIN 25 WSW OTM 40 SW ALO LSE CWA 30 NNW APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL STATES...THE OH VLY...AND THE SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MAINTAIN LARGE AREA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...NERN/MID ATL STATES... SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LATER AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH MAINLY WIND DAMAGE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. ...OH VLY... ONE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY/OH AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL AND NRN TX/OK EWD INTO AR... CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO DEVELOP FROM JCT NWD TO EAST OF ABI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS SHOULD THEM MOVE ESEWD THROUGH NERN TX/SERN OK/SRN AR AND NRN LA WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SERN GULF CST... OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:39:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:39:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406012039.i51Kdoj19542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012034 SWODY1 SPC AC 012031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 25 WNW CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE MOB 45 NNW CEW TOI 20 S CSG 20 ESE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP ...CONT... 25 S WAL PSK UOX GWO 30 WSW HUM ...CONT... 25 SE BPT 35 ESE CLL CLL 25 ESE AUS 25 E SAT SAT 50 SSW JCT 45 SW JCT SJT LTS 35 N OKC TUL BLV 40 N DNV 30 NNW HLG DUJ 25 ENE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 35 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF DRO U28 SLC TWF 60 NNE BOI 50 NW 27U BZN WRL 35 SSW BFF 30 SSW GLD DDC P28 JLN VIH 35 WNW STL 20 SSW UIN 25 WSW OTM 40 SW ALO LSE CWA 30 NNW APN ...CONT... 40 NNW BML 10 SE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ECG 10 S DAN 20 NNE AVL AND 40 NW CHS 30 E CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL STATES...THE OH VLY...AND THE SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MAINTAIN LARGE AREA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...NERN/MID ATL STATES... SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LATER AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH MAINLY WIND DAMAGE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. ...OH VLY... ONE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY/OH AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL AND NRN TX/OK EWD INTO AR... CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO DEVELOP FROM JCT NWD TO EAST OF ABI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS SHOULD THEM MOVE ESEWD THROUGH NERN TX/SERN OK/SRN AR AND NRN LA WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SERN GULF CST... OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 03:04:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 22:04:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406020304.i52343j22267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020103 SWODY1 SPC AC 020100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT CLL 30 WSW AUS 20 SW JCT 25 SSE ABI 10 WNW LTS 35 NW FSM 25 SSE BMG 35 W CMH 50 WNW MRB 35 SSE PSK 20 ENE UOX 35 WSW JAN 25 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW PSX 20 ESE COT 15 ESE DRT 25 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF 20 SSE MTJ 35 WNW EGE 25 W CYS 30 WNW GLD 40 S HLC 20 ENE HUT 55 NNE JLN 20 SSE VIH 35 NW SLO 45 ENE LAF 10 NNW TOL 45 SSE MTC ...CONT... 10 E ECG 20 SE GSO 35 E RMG 40 NW MCN 45 SSW AGS 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 20 SW BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH/TN VLYS... ...SRN PLAINS INTO OH/TN VLYS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX ATTM. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN AIDING NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VLY SWD INTO CNTRL TX. FORT WORTH 00Z SOUNDING EXHIBITED A SMALL CAP...BUT GIVEN EFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION...PARCELS WILL BE FORCED TO CONVECT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER REMAINS WEAK...BUT GIVEN A MOTION ALONG BOUNDARY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ESEWD...IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INTO NERN/ECNTRL TX AND ADJACENT LA AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR SEWD THE STORMS WILL REACH...WITH CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THE SWRN COAST OF LA. CONTINUED RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CORN BELT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT ESEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS. INCREASING LOW- MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 06:04:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 01:04:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406020604.i5264Wj08340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020602 SWODY1 SPC AC 020558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 45 SE JCT 45 SW JCT 45 WSW SJT 35 NNW MAF 50 NNE ROW 30 WSW RTN 15 NW PUB 25 S LIC 30 E LBL 40 SW TUL 40 NNW HOT 15 WSW MEM 25 SW BWG 15 SW LEX 50 E LUK 10 S MFD 15 ENE JHW 20 SSE GFL 25 ESE PSM ...CONT... 25 SE WAL 10 N LYH 25 WSW HSS 30 N GAD 45 WNW AUO 20 WNW ABY AYS 25 NE SSI ...CONT... 15 ESE DAB 35 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE DGW 20 SE ICT 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW STL 10 E DTW ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E BHB ...CONT... 40 S CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...AND FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/NRN FL INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH FROM SERN CANADA TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVER THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE MOVED SEWD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STALL VCNTY NRN FL...SRN STATES AND N TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING SEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY FOCUS TSTM THREATS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OH VLY... CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME...H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15C ATOP 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS...LIKELY FAVORING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL TEND TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA 40 KTS. ...TN VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... A WEAK WAVE TOPPING WRN STATES RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE TN VLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VLY ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT. GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING...TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY/LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 60 KTS MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TN INTO PARTS OF ERN KY. ...NRN FL TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... WELL-DEFINED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD UPSTREAM ACROSS AR AND NRN MS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND COULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE ERN EDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON-DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND NRN FL. OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL...BUT IF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CAN HEAT...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SURFACE DIVERGENCE BEGINS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM LA WWD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SRN HIGH PLAINS HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY DECREASE WITH TIME OVER THESE AREA. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NCNTRL TX... SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER NW ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NOSING DOWN INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL TURN SURFACE FLOW UPSLOPE...ADVECTING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH 8-8.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AND COULD BE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES TO 3500-4500 J/KG DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN 45-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO NWRN/NCNTRL TX. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...IT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...TSTM PROPAGATION SHOULD FAVOR A SWD MOVEMENT. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR A WIND DAMAGING MCS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK/NWRN/NCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT... BUT PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. ...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL... WEST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY AUGMENT STRONG UPDRAFTS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 13:07:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 08:07:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406021307.i52D72j19008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021305 SWODY1 SPC AC 021301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DAB 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 50 SSE AUS 40 SE JCT 30 WSW SJT 30 NNE HOB 30 WSW TCC 15 NNE RTN 30 WSW LHX 15 NNW LAA 50 E LAA 50 WSW P28 50 ENE OKC 10 W FSM 40 SW JBR 10 NE CKV 25 ESE LUK 25 E MFD 20 SE ERI 25 SE BOS ...CONT... 15 ENE ACY MRB 25 S EKN 25 S TRI 25 E RMG 15 SE ANB 20 NW AUO 30 S CSG AYS 20 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 15 NW SLC 60 W BPI 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE DGW 20 SSE ICT 30 NE BVO 25 NE SGF DNV 10 E MTC ...CONT... 35 NNE ROC 30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...APPALACHIAN MTNS...SE US AND NE US.... ...TX PANHANDLE/NW TX/SE OK/ERN CO... MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS W TX AND THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS NOW NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NW TX AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF W TX...A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ETA/ETAKF/GFS MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT AMA AND MAF SHOW BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SW AND W ABOVE 700 MB. THIS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MATURE...MOVING ESEWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS CONGEAL AND MOVE SEWD. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT. ...NORTHEAST US... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SPEED MAX OF 60 KT CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET APPROACHES AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F AND AS TEMPS WARM TODAY...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ABOUT 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS BY EVENING. ...GULF COAST STATES... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SE LA AND MS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LARGE-SCALE BOW HAS WEAKENED BUT REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND AS THE MCS TRACKS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN A WET DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE SEWD OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...ERN COAST OF FL... AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN FL...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ERN FL SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COUPLED WITH VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING A BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:15:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:15:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406021715.i52HFMj30694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021653 SWODY1 SPC AC 021650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS SAT JCT 55 W CVS RTN LIC GLD UMN POF 20 NW BWG 30 ESE LUK MFD 20 NW UCA 15 ESE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ORF TYS 35 N MSL 25 SE MEM 40 E MLU 20 W 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB 35 E MEI 35 NNE MEI CBM 25 N BHM 10 NNE MCN 30 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 60 SSW COD 40 N RWL 45 N CYS 15 NNW SLN 25 ESE EMP 50 NNE JLN 10 ESE TBN 40 NNW ALN 30 SSE MMO 20 SE GRR 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 SSW ART 20 S BTV 35 NW AUG 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...APPALACHIAN MTNS...AND NE US.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN COASTAL STATES AND FL... ...SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OUT OF WY AND IN ZONE OF 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL. SOUNDINGS ACROSS OK/TX SHOW 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM...RESULTING IN MUCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS KS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO OK STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND DEVELOP INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN STREAM OF ACCAS FROM SERN CO/NERN NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DHT EWD TO END AND SGF...STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT. WIND PROFILES VEER FROM SELY TO NWLY ALOFT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WIND PROFILES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE NW FLOW PATTERNS...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL AND RACE SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO TX AS AN MCS WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN NM/SERN CO LATE TODAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND INITIATES STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND POSSIBLY SERN TX/LA LATE TONIGHT. ...NORTHEAST US... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS EWD INTO PA/MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SPEED MAX IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LIFT ACCENTUATED ACROSS VA/PA LATER TODAY IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. DESPITE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS HAVE FORMED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/LINES OF CONVECTION. THE SHEAR PROFILES AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...GULF COAST STATES... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/AVC LOCATED OVER MS. ALTHOUGH THE BOW HAS WEAKENED...REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ...ERN COAST OF FL... SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INITIATING STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MORNING SOUNDING AT TAMPA WAS VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE INSTABILITY AND COLLISION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AN SOME HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..IMY.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 20:30:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 15:30:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406022030.i52KU4j00722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022027 SWODY1 SPC AC 022023 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W OKC 15 ESE TUL 40 NW HOT 15 ESE TXK 35 SSW TXK 45 SSW ADM 25 ESE FSI 15 W OKC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 40 NNW GSO 35 NW CHA 35 ENE ANB 50 W AGS 30 SW CRE ...CONT... 15 SW PNS 20 SSW SEM 10 SSE CBM 30 NNW GWO 15 SSE ESF 30 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 ENE GLS 15 WNW SAT 55 SW TCC 20 SW TAD 30 SW LIC 50 ENE LIC 45 WSW HLC 10 NW UMN POF 30 SSW OWB 30 ESE LUK 10 S CLE 20 NW UCA 20 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD ...CONT... 55 SW DMN 30 NNE SVC 30 SE 4SL 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 60 SSW COD 40 N RWL 45 N CYS 15 NNW SLN 25 ESE EMP 50 NNE JLN 10 ESE TBN 35 S UIN 35 NNW IRK 35 WNW ALO 30 WNW DBQ 20 NW CGX 30 W SBN 20 SE GRR 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 SSW ART 20 S BTV 35 NW AUG 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN-SERN OK/FAR SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE ERN STATES... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN OK INTO WRN/SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN PORTION OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD. A BAND OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE LEADING PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD TO CENTRAL AR...AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN OK TO THE NORTH OF OKC INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING NJ SWWD TO ERN TN TO SRN AR BY 12Z. ...SRN PLAINS... ONGOING SEVERE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN/SERN OK INTO WRN-SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AIDS IN FAST SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW ECHO. STRONGER CAP WWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MERGES WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 4000+ J/KG/ AIR MASS OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SERN CO/ERN NM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM FAR WRN OK ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS. ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN TX AND/OR OK AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50 KT ACROSS WRN TX. STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THESE MCS/S WILL MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS POTENTIALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF SERN TX/LA AND AR BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...NORTHEAST US... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY NEWD TO PA/NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 50-60 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS FOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...CENRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO FL... SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES AND FL. WEAK COLD POOL... CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SRN AL WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS EWD INTO SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS FL ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER...GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE ONGOING MCS. ..PETERS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 01:02:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 20:02:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406030102.i5312Uj32731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030059 SWODY1 SPC AC 030056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP NIR HDO 20 E JCT 30 SSW ABI AMA DHT CAO LHX LAA LBL 30 SE GAG ADM 20 WNW TXK 10 ESE HOT 30 SW DYR 40 SW CKV CSV TRI 35 WNW HKY GSP ATL AUO TOI 30 WNW CEW 20 SSE MOB 25 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ELP ALM ONM GNT DRO 45 NNE CEZ U28 PUC 10 NNW EVW MLD TWF SUN DLN BZN 10 SE LVM WRL 10 NNW RWL SNY MCK HLC 10 WNW HUT 10 NNW BVO FYV HRO ARG 40 N DYR 15 NNW HOP 25 W LOZ HTS 15 S UNI LUK 30 S MTO SPI 15 N PIA 30 SSW SBN AZO 55 ESE MTC ...CONT... 20 NNW ROC 30 SSE UCA 30 SE MWN 40 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 25 WSW HDO JCT SJT 45 S BGS 80 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHERN STATES.... ...SRN PLAINS INTO LWR MS VLY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREAS... ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO BASE OF A LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...INCLUDING ONE WHICH INITIATED EVOLUTION OF LARGE ONGOING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OUT OF KANSAS MAY AID CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS. LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL WILL MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. DEW POINTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 70S... CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL. GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF COLD POOL...AND LITTLE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS TEXAS...LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVIDENT IN 03/00Z RAOB FROM FORT WORTH PROVIDES A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY WITH ONSET OF AT LEAST WEAK RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN ONGOING EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NEAR/ WEST OF WICHITA FALLS...GENERATION OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS LIKELY. LIFT ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD POOL MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP...AND SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY IN WEAK FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...BUT STRENGTH OF SURFACE COLD POOL MORE THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WHICH INITIATED UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ENHANCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR/MOMENTUM BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION INTO DAMAGING WIND CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXISTS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF GROWING CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/EXTREME NORTHERN GULF STATES...AND ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. **FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PLEASE REFER TO LASTEST SPC MESOCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 05:41:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 00:41:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406030541.i535f1j11859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030539 SWODY1 SPC AC 030536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP HDO 10 SE SJT MAF CNM 4CR SAF 50 W RTN TAD CYS DGW 40 ENE SHR 4BQ REJ PHP 35 E MCK 10 NNE DDC 50 SW GAG MWL TPL CLL LFK 45 N POE LUL TCL GAD AND 25 ESE GSO 35 ENE RWI 25 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 35 NNW OWY 20 WNW LMT 35 SSE PDX 45 SSE SEA 35 NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE SLN 35 W TUL 30 SW UNO 35 NNW HOP 25 N JKL 35 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...GULF COAST STATES...AND HIGH PLAINS.... DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT INTO A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST PROMINENT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH BROADER SCALE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE INTO EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. ...GULF COAST STATES... MODELS SUGGEST MAIN LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...REMNANTS OF MASSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY DAYBREAK...STABILIZING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY CLOUD COVER/DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SMALL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. DESPITE PROBABILITY OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST... BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN MIXED LAYER IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/EAST OF THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. INSTABILITY AFTER DARK ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUATION OF SEVERE THREAT...AS MID/UPPER FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING, MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OR SO APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY... AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ...HIGH PLAINS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED AS SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK TOPS CREST OF RIDGE. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS TO AT LEAST SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THIS CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE SOUTHWARD THAN SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC...BUT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ..KERR.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 13:07:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 08:07:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406031307.i53D7H802065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031305 SWODY1 SPC AC 031302 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 40 ESE NIR 10 WSW JCT 50 W SJT 25 N GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 10 N FCL 20 NNE CYS 15 NNW BFF 25 E AIA 35 SSW MHN 20 NW MCK 15 ESE LBL 30 WSW CSM 30 SSW ADM 20 NW TXK 45 W UOX 10 SSW CKV 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 30 ENE LMT 70 NE MFR 20 ENE PDX 55 WNW YKM 35 NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE SLN 25 NW PNC 15 SE PNC 25 NE TUL 25 WNW EVV 55 WNW HTS 15 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...CAROLINAS AND FL... ...ERN CO/W TX/ERN NM... A LEE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE TODAY ACROSS ERN CO AND THIS WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NWD INTO ERN CO TODAY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S F. AS TEMPS WARM...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND STORMS SHOULD GENERATE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SUPERCELLS ISOLATED. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC AND INVERTED V PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF. ...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA... A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN MO...AR AND NRN LA. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SFC HEATING THIS MORNING WILL RAISE THE INSTABILITY AND HIGH-END MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT JACKSON MS SHOWS 30 KT AT 500 MB WITH THE BNA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 40 KT IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THIS STRONGER FLOW ACROSS TN AND MS SPREADS EWD...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IF A COLD POOL ORGANIZES...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS NRN GA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE MCS MOVES EWD THIS EVENING. ...PACIFIC NW... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S F ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MTNS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...INVERTED V PROFILES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 16:45:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 11:45:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406031645.i53Gjd823797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031643 SWODY1 SPC AC 031639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 40 ESE NIR 10 WSW JCT 50 W SJT 25 N GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 10 N FCL 25 SE DGW 50 SE 81V 35 WSW PHP 40 W VTN 20 NW MCK 15 ESE LBL 30 E CDS 20 SE SEP 40 NE LFK 50 ENE PBF 20 SW PAH 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 10 E SAD 25 ENE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 30 ENE LMT 50 SE EUG 30 N PDX 35 N SEA 25 NNW 3TH 40 WNW HVR 15 NW SDY 15 W HON 15 ENE OLU 10 NNW SLN 40 ESE P28 OKC 15 N ADM 35 SE MLC 40 NW FYV 35 N SGF 10 WNW JEF 20 NW STL 30 SW HUF 30 WSW MRB 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. AND ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ONE MID LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER SERN MO AS ANOTHER EXITS THE NERN CORNER OF THE U.S. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SEND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM THE NC COAST WWD ACROSS NRN GA THROUGH A COUPLE WEAK LOWS OVER NWRN MS AND EAST CENTRAL TX. CONVECTION IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING BOUNDARY THAT BEGAN OVER THE SRN PLAINS ATTM YESTERDAY. FINALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWWD INTO SERN AZ WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN AND NWRN TX. ...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL... ACTIVE BOW LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND IS MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER SWRN AL. ADVANCING LINE WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL DRYING PRESENT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF SWRN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES SURFACE RIDGE ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH FORECAST CAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT INDICATES DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN PLATEAU... MODELS INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE WA COAST INTO NRN CA BY 04/00Z. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH LIFTED INDICES TO AROUND -4...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR OR/WA AND MOVING OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH ID INTO MT TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 20:28:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 15:28:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406032029.i53KTX816204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032023 SWODY1 SPC AC 032019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE 4LW 45 NNW 4LW 70 SW PDT 20 WNW LWS 30 WSW MSO 25 WSW DLN 20 NE PIH 45 NE OWY 80 NNW WMC 35 ENE 4LW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 20 WNW FCL 15 SSE DGW 40 SE 81V 30 E RAP 40 W VTN 20 NW MCK 45 NE GAG 30 S LTS 35 S SEP 40 NW BTR 50 NNE GLH 30 NW DYR 40 ENE PAH 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 25 NW VCT 35 NNE HDO 45 NNE DRT 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 10 E SAD 25 ENE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 WNW EKO 75 WNW WMC 25 NNW MHS 45 SE EUG 30 N PDX 35 N SEA 25 NNW 3TH 40 WNW HVR 15 NW SDY 15 W HON 15 ENE OLU 10 NNW SLN 40 ESE P28 OKC 15 N ADM 35 SE MLC 40 NW FYV 35 N SGF 10 WNW JEF 20 NW STL 30 SW HUF 30 WSW MRB 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE/FAR SERN WA TO MUCH OF ID... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE/SWRN KS/WRN OK... A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE NOW LOCATED ACROSS ID/NWRN UT AND A SECOND MOVING ACROSS SRN UT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND THEN SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE SRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN OK/WRN TX BY 12Z FRIDAY. BROAD AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A SLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO TO WRN SD. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN WY/NERN UT INTO CENTRAL CO. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SW TX/ERN NM NWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...CAPE/ STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH LCLS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. AT LEAST ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO LATER THIS EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30-40 KT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHT VEERING OF THE LLJ LATE TONIGHT SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX BY 12Z. ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN PLATEAU... SHORT WAVE RIDGING/MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA TO WRN MT...IS LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE/SERN WA INTO ID BY LATE AFTERNOON. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...AIDING IN THE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN WA/ERN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN/CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NRN CA TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INCREASING THE INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ORE/SERN WA INTO ID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... VIS IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS FAR NRN FL. ONGOING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE PER REGIONAL RADARS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL. ...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED OVER MIDDLE-ERN TN AND NRN MS TO NRN GA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST BENEATH BAND OF 45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED GIVEN OBSERVED MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 01:04:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 20:04:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406040103.i5413q824800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040101 SWODY1 SPC AC 040057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4LW 60 NW 4LW RDM PDT 55 ENE S80 27U 40 N SUN 10 E BOI 70 SSE BNO 4LW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 35 NNW AYS 30 N ABY 10 ESE MGM 45 SW 0A8 40 NNW MEI 20 E GWO 25 WSW TUP 35 E TUP 30 NNW BHM 40 WNW ATL AHN 30 WSW HKY GSO RDU 30 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CDR 45 SSE RAP 35 N MHN MHN IML EHA CVS 45 WNW ROW 35 NNW ELP 40 ENE DMN 20 E ONM 40 SSE SAF LVS PUB 40 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN SVC GNT FMN CNY PUC 10 SSE SLC 30 E EKO 45 W OWY MHS MFR 45 E EUG DLS 50 WNW ALW 25 NNW 3TH 35 S HVR GGW ISN MBG PIR ANW BBW RSL 10 W P28 LTS 10 ESE MWL 40 NNE LFK ESF BTR 45 NNW MOB 25 SSW SEM MEI 25 N JAN GLH MKL CGI 10 SW MVN 40 NNE EVV SDF HTS EKN 30 NE CHO 20 SSE WAL ...CONT... 60 S CRP 15 SSW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 20 SSW BDL 20 SE ORH 25 ESE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST.... ...HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING CREST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE UNCERTAIN...WITH ONLY NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. CONSIDERING WARMTH OF AIR MASS ALOFT...THIS MOISTURE MAY ONLY SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS. STILL...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO MAINTAIN SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AS BASE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... THOUGH MARGINAL MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC HAS LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. ...SOUTHEAST... INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...SOME DEEPENING OF LOW AND INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS NOW INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD 04/12Z. **FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 05:36:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 00:36:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406040536.i545aP826855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040534 SWODY1 SPC AC 040530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN 30 SE ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY DAN 25 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 E FAR 10 SE ATY 55 WSW YKN GRI CNK HUT P28 CSM AMA EHA 45 SSW GLD AKO 40 WSW BFF DGW 4BQ GDV 50 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 20 WSW DRO 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW PUC 35 SW ENV 20 NW BOI 15 SSW S06 35 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 25 ENE SUX 35 ENE JLN 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 15 ENE MCB 40 WNW MOB 60 ESE MEI TCL 20 S MSL 30 SE MKL 25 N PAH 30 SSW BMG 25 NNW PIT PSB 25 SW ABE 10 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE FL PEN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.... SPLIT IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...AND ROTATES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY...MODELS INDICATE BELTS WILL GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE FORM OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ...GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS... AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. WHILE THIS MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON... STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPE IN DEEPENING/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN...RESULTING IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. THOUGH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST CELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...FLORIDA... CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND WEAK INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS. ...HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS HAS DRIED LOWER LEVELS...AND WILL PRECLUDE GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO LEE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN CAP. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER CAP WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY TRANSITION TO GROWING...SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR ON EASTERN EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY DIMINISH RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FAIRLY RAPIDLY. ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION...DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND MORE ORGANIZED/BROADER-SCALE WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 12:58:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 07:58:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406041258.i54Cwd827524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041256 SWODY1 SPC AC 041252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN 30 SE ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY DAN 25 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 E FAR 10 SE ATY 55 WSW YKN GRI CNK HUT P28 CSM AMA EHA 40 N LAA 35 ENE DEN 40 WSW BFF DGW 4BQ GDV 50 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 20 WSW DRO 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW PUC 35 SW ENV 20 NW BOI 15 SSW S06 35 NW CTB ...CONT... 30 ENE ELO 25 ENE SUX 35 ENE JLN 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 15 ENE MCB 40 WNW MOB 60 ESE MEI TCL 20 S MSL 30 SE MKL 25 N PAH 30 SSW BMG 25 NNW PIT PSB 25 SW ABE 10 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING FL... ...SERN STATES... UPPER LOW VCNTY BOWLING GREEN KY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT/ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THAT IS PROGD TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE E-W FRONT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE OWING TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SC/NC AND/OR ALONG WEAK FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ALONG/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. ...FL... WEAK INHIBITION AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MANY PARTS OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW IS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT UPDRAFTS WILL BE VIGOROUS GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...PULSE MULTICELL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ....PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS OWING TO PENETRATION OF SURFACE RIDGE WELL SOUTH INTO TX. NONETHELESS...HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO-MT WILL INITIATE TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING FROM UT INTO WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND GIVEN SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT ALONG WITH LARGE HAILSTONES. ONE OR MORE MCSS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GEOGRAPHY AND TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LARGEST TSTM CLUSTERS TO CONGEAL AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS FROM PARTS OF THE DAKS INTO CNTRL/WRN NEB. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL...BUT THE LATE NIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/FAR W TX...RECENT SURGE OF 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER NORTH...BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...EFFECTIVE COLD POOL GENERATION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS...THUS THE LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN PLAINS/TX... WEAK MCS MOVING ACROSS OK MAY LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SRN OK OR NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...BUT NWLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY AUGMENT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THESE STORMS ARE APT TO MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VLY WITH A CONTINUED ISOLD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 16:27:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 11:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406041626.i54GQl809570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041624 SWODY1 SPC AC 041621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 20 WSW ABY 10 SSW ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY 40 NNE RDU 25 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW DVL 30 SE JMS 30 NE HON 55 WSW YKN 15 W GRI 35 N RSL 30 NW END 35 WSW ADM 55 NNW ABI 50 W LBB 20 ESE CAO 15 SE LHX 35 ENE DEN 40 WSW BFF 50 ENE DGW 15 NW REJ 35 NW DIK 30 W MOT 25 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP 40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE TWF 30 SSE SUN 40 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35 E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL 60 ESE MEI TCL 25 SW HSV 30 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG 20 NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MAINLY NWLY FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KY/TN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE WV/WRN MD REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PACIFIC...JUST S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WILL SEND A MID LEVEL TROUGH ENEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WEAK SURFACE LOW...A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER KY/TN...WAS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TODAY...WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD EXTENDING ACROSS E CENTRAL VA/SERN MD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGS EWD INTO SERN GA AND NWRN FL BY 05/12Z. ...SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.... AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN NC AND CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA. MLCAPES ACROSS NC ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MORNING RAOBS INDICATED THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6.0-6.5C/KM. MOST EVIDENT IS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AT MID LEVELS FROM THE SW INTO CENTRAL NC ATTM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UVVS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IN FL...AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EWD/SEWD INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA...PULSE TYPE STORMS MAY BE THE RULE AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONVECT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. ETA MODEL DEPICTS STRONGEST VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVES SEWD ACROSS SD/NE/KS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS ESTIMATING NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE DEW POINTS. ETA MODEL BRINGS UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NWD INTO ERN ND. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S IN SERN SD WELL AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/DEVELOPING MCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY THEN DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS WITH MAIN THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 20:01:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 15:01:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406042000.i54K0p822651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041958 SWODY1 SPC AC 041954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 10 NE VLD 35 ENE ABY 35 NNW MCN 30 S SPA 45 ENE HKY 20 WSW DAN 20 NE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DVL 50 SSW FAR 25 E HON 40 WNW OFK 15 S GRI 40 N RSL 35 SSW END 45 SW DUA 20 S DAL 50 SW LBB DHT 15 SE LHX 35 WSW AKO 40 WSW BFF 60 NE DGW 20 N REJ 25 NNW DIK 10 N MOT 10 ESE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP 40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE TWF 35 SW SUN 20 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35 E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL 30 S SEM 30 E MGM 25 E ANB 25 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG 20 NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES... ...SERN STATES... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NC TOWARD SERN VA/DELMARVA AREA...AS WARM FRONT ALSO MOVES NWD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SC. 35 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NC/VA...ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NC INTO SERN VA AS THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD. LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF AND ENE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES. FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO NRN FL...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ SRN FL ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...AND ALONG THE GUST FRONT ADVANCING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE... MULTI-CELL STORMS WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WET MICROBURTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WRN KS TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NWRN TX. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE PLAINS STATES...ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN/WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...ALONG AND SOUTH A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWWD FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OK ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN INTO NRN TX. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONGER NWLY FLOW WITH THE OK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FARTHER NWD...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS CO TO MT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS/WY SWD TO NM. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN PLAINS...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH LCLS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE OF THE LLJ THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS PROVIDING MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW INTO THE STORMS...ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD...WITH THE THREAT BEING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. **FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.** ..PETERS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 01:08:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 20:08:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406050108.i5518a811322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050106 SWODY1 SPC AC 050103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 40 ESE DVL 45 SE JMS 15 S ABR 25 NW BUB 45 N HLC 20 ESE DDC 30 SSE CSM 40 NNW MWL 15 SSW DAL 60 ENE ACT 30 N CLL AUS 15 SE JCT 35 S BGS 45 W LBB 25 W DHT 40 SE LIC 10 S SNY 40 NNE CDR 15 E Y22 25 SSW P24 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W FHU 70 NE SAD 40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 25 S GUC 55 SE VEL 40 S EVW 25 S MLD 25 WNW PIH 45 NNW SUN 55 N BOI 50 ENE BNO 60 NNE 4LW 60 NNE LMT 60 SE EUG 45 SSE SEA 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 35 N EAU 15 NW LSE 40 S RST 15 SSE SPW 30 SE SUX 15 ESE BIE 30 SSW EMP 30 W MKO 50 ENE PRX 40 NNW ESF 10 S MCB 20 NW MOB 10 SSW DHN 40 SSW MCN 30 WNW AGS 40 SSE SPA 20 S CLT 25 ENE SOP 35 ENE RWI 25 ENE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ND TO CENTRAL TX... ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM WRN ND...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY CONGEALING INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED N-S MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A SLOW UPWARD ORGANIZATIONAL TREND CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS ACTIVITY. SWD PROPAGATION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST IF BOW SHAPED ECHOES CAN EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE. NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE RELUCTANCE FOR THE LLJ TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT SUGGEST MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL HOLD MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ...CENTRAL TX... MULTI CELL CLUSTERS ARE CONVERGING OVER CENTRAL TX BETWEEN ABI-SJT-ACT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BUILDING A COLD POOL WHICH MAY PROVE EFFICIENT IN DRIVING CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT. ...CAROLINAS... SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CONTINUED STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IT APPEARS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 05:43:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 00:43:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406050543.i555hA814563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050541 SWODY1 SPC AC 050538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ANJ 25 SE TVC 25 ESE MKE 20 WNW BMI 15 N STL 25 SSE TBN 50 E FSM 35 SSW TXK 60 WNW LFK 35 E JCT 30 ENE FST 30 ENE CNM 50 NNW TCC 15 SW PUB 15 ENE COS 15 NE LIC 15 W GLD 25 SW MCK 20 NW MHE 45 SSW BJI 25 NW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 20 WNW LWT 20 E LVM 25 ENE MQM 45 ENE BOI 70 E BNO 25 W BKE 15 SW LWS 45 NNE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE JAX 15 WSW AYS 45 SW AGS 20 N CAE 15 SW SOP GSB 30 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 30 S SDY 50 NE RAP MBG 45 SW DVL 75 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE APN HTL 35 NNE BEH 15 WNW DNV 20 N CGI 35 WSW DYR 40 E GWO 30 W SEM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AND 15 SSE HKY 30 SE 5I3 20 WSW UNI 20 ENE MFD 15 W DUJ 30 NW ELM 25 W EEN 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR 30 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 40 SSW 4CR 30 SW LVS 45 NE 4SL 25 NNE DRO 50 W MTJ 30 N U28 50 WNW PUC 30 W SLC 15 NE PIH 55 NNE OWY 90 SE BNO 30 SW BNO 50 SW PDT 35 SE EPH 45 N EAT 35 SSW YKM 55 NNE PDX 35 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SWWD INTO TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD WITHIN MEAN NWLY FLOW INTO THE MS VALLEY...TRAILING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL AFFECT OF THIS SUBTLE SHIFT EWD IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE TO FORCE A SFC BOUNDARY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NRN U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. COMPLICATING FACTORS FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL AREAS FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. ONGOING CLUSTERS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN TX WHERE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MCS IS SURGING SEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY APPEAR STRONGEST ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN NM INTO KS. INCREASING LLJ INTO THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALSO FAVORS STORM INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST STORM MOTION WILL INITIALLY PROVE ERRATIC...OR PERHAPS A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITHIN AN AIRMASS LIKELY EXHIBITING SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG. WITH TIME AN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR ONE OR MORE MCS/S TO DEVELOP...THEN SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS AS IT PROPAGATES INTO NORTH TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN INTO ERN NEB...BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO A MORE MARGINAL ZONE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL MO. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ...NRN ROCKIES... A STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS ORE INTO ID LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH AN EVER INCREASING ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED FROM ERN WA/ORE INTO WRN MT. DESPITE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...STRONG FRONTAL ZONE AND AMPLE HEATING WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ID/WRN MT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO CENTRAL MT BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CAROLINAS... STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG WILL EVOLVE BY MID DAY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS WITHIN VEERED BUT CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING STABILIZES AIRMASS. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 12:47:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 07:47:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406051247.i55ClU817399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051245 SWODY1 SPC AC 051241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 20 WNW LWT 20 E LVM 25 ENE MQM 45 ENE BOI 70 E BNO 25 W BKE 15 SW LWS 45 NNE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 135 NE CMX 30 S ESC 25 ESE MKE 20 WNW BMI 15 N STL 25 SSE TBN 50 E FSM 35 SSW TXK 60 WNW LFK 35 E JCT 30 ENE FST 30 ENE CNM 50 NNW TCC 15 SW PUB 15 ENE COS 15 NE LIC 15 W GLD 25 SW MCK 20 NW MHE 45 SSW BJI 25 NW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 10 E ORL 30 WNW PBI 20 WNW MIA 45 W MIA 15 NNE FMY 30 NE PIE 25 SW GNV 45 WNW CTY 15 WNW AQQ 30 WSW MAI 45 SSE MCN 25 SW AGS 50 SSE CLT 10 WNW GSB 35 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 40 SSW 4CR 30 SW LVS 45 NE 4SL 25 NNE DRO 50 W MTJ 30 N U28 50 WNW PUC 30 W SLC 15 NE PIH 55 NNE OWY 90 SE BNO 30 SW BNO 50 SW PDT 35 E DLS 30 NNW DLS 55 ESE OLM 35 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 30 S SDY 50 NE RAP MBG 45 SW DVL 75 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR 30 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE APN HTL 35 NNE BEH 15 WNW DNV 20 N CGI 35 WSW DYR 40 E GWO 30 W SEM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AND 15 SSE HKY 30 SE 5I3 20 WSW UNI 20 ENE MFD 15 W DUJ 30 NW ELM 25 W EEN 10 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FL... ...PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST GIVEN AFFECTS OF NUMEROUS MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. NWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DROPS SEWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEE-TROUGH/FRONT LOCATED FROM ND TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MIGRATE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TODAY AS THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE DIGS SEWD. STRONGEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH MN INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. IF MORNING CLOUDS CAN THIN...INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WEAKEN GIVEN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST. FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST FEATURES APPEAR TO BE OVER ERN NEB AND OVER NCNTRL TX AND THE AFFECTS ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE VORT MAXIMA IS LESS UNSTABLE GIVEN RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF RECENT ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND MO AND OVER ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE CONDITIONAL BASED ON MAINTAINED INTEGRITY OF TSTMS ALONG THE MO RVR AND ACROSS NCNTRL TX THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STRONGER TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NM INTO KS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY APPEAR STRONGEST. AS THE LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS COLD POOL GENERATION INCREASES. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF N OR CNTRL TX AND OK. AGAIN...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ...NRN ROCKIES... TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH NRN ID INTO WRN MT TODAY. MOISTENING COLUMN IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEATING WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...SERN STATES INCLUDING INTERIOR FL... CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC INTO SERN GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...OTHER TSTMS WILL FORM ON SEABREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND MINUS 9C PER 12Z SOUNDINGS ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...PULSE MULTICELL TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:54:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:54:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406051954.i55Js0822558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051950 SWODY1 SPC AC 051947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE HVR 40 SE 3HT MQM 10 ESE 27U 80 SSE S80 10 SW S80 30 SSW S06 70 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MQT CWA LNK P28 FSI DAL 10 SSE TPL 15 SSE JCT INK 10 NNW CVS RTN LAA GLD IML MHN 30 WNW 9V9 ABR 25 N AXN 25 NNW ELO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 25 SE GNV 25 NW JAX 25 SW SAV 35 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT JMS FAR 10 E GFK 55 W RRT ...CONT... 75 NNE APN AZO LAF DEC 40 SSW BLV 65 ENE LIT GLH 15 E LUL TOI ANB RMG 15 NNW GSP 15 SSE RDU 10 E NHK 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... 50 ENE CRP NIR DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN TCS 4CR ABQ 15 SE FMN GJT VEL BYI 10 NW OWY 20 NE BNO 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FL PEN... STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS INITIAL STRONG JET STREAK NOSES INLAND OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN PHASE. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PEELS AROUND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ...PLAINS... IN RESPONSE TO UPPER FLOW REGIME...LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LARGER-SCALE... BUT DESTABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO MAXIMIZE WITH STRONGEST HEATING NEAR BOUNDARY. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK BY EARLY EVENING... WHERE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR/SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH...WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SURGES THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ...WESTERN MONTANA... AS FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED... ENOUGH MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ON UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF GREAT FALLS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY MOST VIGOROUS CELLS AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 01:01:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 20:01:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406060100.i5610s806819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060059 SWODY1 SPC AC 060055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E EAU 25 ENE LSE 40 W LNR 40 N DSM 55 WNW LWD 30 S TOP 20 SE TUL 15 NE PRX 60 WNW LFK 35 NW AUS 30 ESE FST 15 ENE CNM 30 WNW TCC 30 WNW CAO 25 N EHA GCK 30 SSW HLC 20 SSW BBW 20 NW MHE 40 SSE AXN 50 NNW EAU 25 E EAU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 75 ENE LWT 35 WNW BIL 20 SSW BZN 15 NNE BTM 35 W GTF 25 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT 40 WSW P24 70 WSW DIK 20 SSW 4BQ 25 ESE COD 25 ENE IDA 40 NNW TWF 80 SSE BNO 55 SW BNO 65 NW BNO 10 NW PDT 35 S EPH 40 WSW YKM OLM 30 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR 30 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ENE APN 25 NE FNT 10 WNW JXN 30 W SBN 20 SSE BMI 35 WNW MDH 30 E JBR 40 E GWO MEI 60 SSW SEM 25 WNW DHN ABY 65 N AYS 45 S CAE 15 SW FLO 30 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 25 E ONM 30 N ABQ 45 ENE GUC 40 S LAR 10 ENE CYS 40 NW IML 20 SSE MHN 20 N 9V9 25 N HON 55 N ATY 15 NNE FAR 35 NW BJI 10 WNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MT... ...SOUTH PLAINS... MULTIPLE EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL FAVOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MERGE AND BECOME AN EXPANSIVE MCS BEFORE DRIVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THE WRN HALF OF OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO NWRN TX AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL TX. ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... TRAILING PORTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE U.P. OF MI...SWWD INTO SERN SD. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EWD...AND LLJ VEERS ACROSS WI INTO ONTARIO...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO A MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ZONE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS MN INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES. ...MT... N-S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LLJ WILL INCREASE OVER ERN MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH WILL FAVOR MAINTAINING THIS LINEAR ORGANIZATION WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG INFLOW BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE LIFTS ENEWD TOWARD THE MT/CANADA BORDER. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 05:53:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 00:53:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406060553.i565r8809461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060550 SWODY1 SPC AC 060547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 50 ENE FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 15 SSW RAP 30 ENE 81V 25 NNW GCC 40 W SHR 45 S BIL 25 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WSW SDY 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 25 W DLH STC 20 N OTG 65 ENE ANW 55 N IML 20 N GLD 45 N DDC 25 W HUT 15 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 20 SE ALO 30 NE LNR 35 SSE ESC 10 NE ANJ ...CONT... 60 E MTC 25 ESE TOL 35 NNE LAF 20 ENE MTO 50 S BMG 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 50 SE ALM ABQ 40 ESE GUC 15 NNW FCL 35 N DGW 35 NE WRL 20 ESE MQM 35 NNW BNO 15 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 50 W HOU 40 WNW CLL 50 WNW AUS DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... NRN ROCKIES UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN MT INTO ND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS MT FORCING A COLD FRONT TO THE WRN ND BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SBCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG. EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODIFIED AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY WILL RETURN NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE 50S...TO POSSIBLE NEAR 60F DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS A SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE OVER WRN ND BY PEAK HEATING WITH A PSEUDO WARM FRONT-TYPE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER DURING THE EVENING. AS FORCING INCREASES OVER THE NRN PLAINS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER WRN ND. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATURE INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY INTO NWRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... MULTIPLE DAYS OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONSISTENTLY EVOLVED INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BEFORE MOVING SEWD AND WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX. ALTHOUGH LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EWD SLIGHTLY...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING/INSTABILITY...IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG...SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN KS...ESPECIALLY IF OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE. IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY A REGION FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 12:45:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 07:45:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406061245.i56CjW815008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061243 SWODY1 SPC AC 061240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 50 ENE FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 15 SSW RAP 30 ENE 81V 25 NNW GCC 40 W SHR 45 S BIL 40 E 3HT 55 NE LWT 65 ESE HVR 65 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 50 W HOU 40 WNW CLL 50 WNW AUS DRT ...CONT... 80 SW GDP 50 SE ALM 40 WNW 4SL 40 NNE MTJ 15 NW CAG 40 S GCC 30 SW SHR 10 E MQM 45 NE SUN 30 ESE BOI 45 WSW BOI 45 SE RDM 40 WNW RDM 15 N ONP ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO 25 W DLH STC 20 N OTG 65 ENE ANW 55 N IML 20 N GLD 45 N DDC 25 W HUT 15 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 20 SE ALO 30 NE LNR 35 SSE ESC 10 NE ANJ ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 ENE FDY 25 ENE LAF 25 W HUF 40 S BMG 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A LEAD MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG PAC NW JET WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SASK DURING MID-MORNING. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RENEGADE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BODY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM NERN CO TO NE WY/SWRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN MT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...WILL REMAIN ACROSS CNTRL SD/ND. AS THE TSTMS TRANSLATE EWD...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GROW STRONGER WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A LARGE DEGREE OF CROSS-OVER BETWEEN THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW. NONETHELESS...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 30C WILL KEEP THE TORNADO RISK LOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR A 2 PERCENT PROBABILITY. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A MCS OR TWO AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN WITH RISKS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN LOWER MI... SRN PART OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GLANCE SRN LOWER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH 12Z WHITE LAKE SOUNDING IS NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...NARROW AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND/HAIL THREATS FOR NOW. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VLY... UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EWD TO LIE MAINLY E OF THE PLAINS TODAY. LAST NIGHTS TSTM CLUSTERS WEAKENED BEFORE DAYBREAK AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MS VLY MOST OF TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST FROM W-NERN TX EWD TO THE MS DELTA. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREATS. BUT...CAPE WILL BE HIGH AND A FEW TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ...ERN FL... MEAN SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AOB MINUS 8C AND GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. SEVERE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 16:34:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 11:34:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406061634.i56GYV804056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061631 SWODY1 SPC AC 061628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 55 E FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 25 SSW RAP 81V 60 NNW REJ 30 SSE SDY 60 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP ABQ 30 E ASE 25 SSW LAR 20 ENE CPR 50 NW COD 55 NNE SUN 40 NW BNO 30 S ONP ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 35 NNW MFD 40 SSW FDY 45 SSE MIE 40 NE SDF 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W YKN 35 S AKO 15 NNE RTN 25 S CAO 35 NNW CSM 15 NNE TOP 35 NNW BRL 25 E ALO 55 W YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 20 WSW HIB 25 NNE STC 20 N MSP 25 WNW EAU 30 SSW ESC 60 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...DAKOTAS/NWRN MN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AS SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SYSTEM MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MT ATTM...AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD THE SRN PARTS OF SASK AND MAN IT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER ERN MT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND AS OCCLUDED LOW OVER ALTA MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO SASK. WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN NEB/SRN SD NWWD INTO MT LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO ND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AXIS OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT RAP/RIW AND GGW EXHIBIT A LAYER OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WRN ND WHERE PRIMARY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE LOCATED...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SWD OVER PARTS OF WRN SD /ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION/. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS INCREASING FROM SSELY FLOW OF 25-30 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW AT 500 MB. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NWRN MN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THIS REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT MULTIPLE MCVS ARE APPARENT OVER NWRN TX...EXTREME NERN TX...AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS OF 65-75F PERSISTS FROM SRN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA AND EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. ...FL PENINSULA... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN FL /REF MCD 1114/ WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C WHICH ARE ENHANCING LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER SWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PROPAGATE INLAND AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR PULSE STORMS FORMING/DISSIPATING AND DRY AIR AVAILABILITY EVIDENT IN MFL/JAX/XMR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 19:54:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 14:54:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406061954.i56JsY809374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061951 SWODY1 SPC AC 061948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 55 E FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 25 SSW RAP 40 W REJ 60 NNW REJ SDY 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ELP ABQ FMN 10 NE MTJ RWL 20 N DGW GCC 10 W SHR MQM 27U OLM 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 30 ENE ROC BFD DUJ LBE HTS BWG BNA TYS SSU 30 N SHD 30 ENE CHO WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W YKN 35 S AKO LAA 10 SSE LBL 35 NNW CSM 15 NNE TOP 35 NNW BRL 25 E ALO 55 W YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL AXN 10 NNE RWF 15 ENE MKT 10 ENE EAU 30 SSW ESC 60 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...DAKOTAS... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/STRONGER JET CORE EMANATING FROM BROADER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PRECEDING THIS SHORT WAVE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EXIT REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET...WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LEAD SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS HEATING...AND BEGINNING TO MOISTEN MORE RAPIDLY. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NARROW TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IS RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL OCCUR...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SPREADS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS PHASING OF STRONGER LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CULMINATE IN RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE 07/00Z TIME FRAME...JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE RISK OF DOWNBURSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTH OF UPPER JET...ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST MONTANA... NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT RISK OF BRIEF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ...GULF COAST STATES... IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINGERING WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ARE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZES...IN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70S DEW POINTS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...PRIMARILY WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT ALSO PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK... STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES...AND NEAR ANY CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 00:51:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 19:51:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406070051.i570pd820443@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070049 SWODY1 SPC AC 070046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 25 SSE TVF 10 SW FAR 40 SSE JMS 40 S BIS 20 SW DIK 25 ESE SDY 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE 7R4 35 NNE POE 20 SE GGG 25 SE SEP 55 SW SJT 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 10 WNW ELP ABQ 30 E DRO 20 NW GUC 35 N CYS 30 S RAP 35 NNW RAP 20 N GCC 15 NNW JAC 30 SSE BOI 65 NNW 4LW 45 E EUG 35 N PDX 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ELO 30 ENE STC 25 N RWF 30 SW BKX 20 WNW BBW 35 S IML 50 ESE LAA 25 NW GAG 25 ENE END 20 NE CNU 25 ENE SZL 20 NNW ALN 15 N OWB 55 NE HSV 45 NNE ATL 40 S SPA 30 S SOP 10 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER WRN ND THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WELL NORTH OF SFC LOW OBSERVED OVER NWRN SD. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SD AND ERN WY...MIXED THROUGH 500MB AT RAP. THIS PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY PREVENT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF SRN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION...WITH AN INCREASING LLJ WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATIONAL INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AS MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD NWRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...MERGERS WILL SOON FAVOR AN INCREASING WIND/HAIL THREAT WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 05:51:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 00:51:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406070551.i575pH832293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070549 SWODY1 SPC AC 070546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IWD 60 NNE MSP STC 35 N AXN BJI 15 WNW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 N LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 55 ENE ANW 40 NNE 9V9 20 SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 145 ENE APN 25 WNW OSC 15 WSW GRR 35 SSE SBN 20 ESE MIE 30 SE CMH 50 WSW RIC 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 ENE BML 20 WSW LCI 30 SE BGM 15 NW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CTB HLN 30 NNE 27U 50 ESE BKE 50 S BNO 20 NW MHS CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 35 SSW ROW 45 SE SAF 35 N LVS 35 NE TAD 25 SSE LIC 25 SE CYS 25 SSW DGW 40 S GCC 40 NE 81V 10 SE Y22 10 WSW JMS 55 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MN...NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SERN SD INTO THE U.P. OF MI... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY... NRN HIGH PLAINS UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS ND INTO WRN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON FLATTENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM...E-W WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z WITH A RAPID WARM SECTOR RECOVERY WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EARLY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS STATES WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SERN SD AT 05Z. LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL RETURN ACROSS MN/WRN WI INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO WRN WI. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...STRONG HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE INITIALLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN ONTARIO...THEN BUILD SWD WITHIN SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW BY 21Z. DESPITE THIS VEERED FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER VEERING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE WITHIN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR/NWRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STORM MERGERS AND BOW ECHO-TYPE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW...VERY WARM PLUME OF AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SD DURING THE DAY INITIALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEB...AND POSSIBLY ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN KS. HIGH THICKNESS VALUES AND WEAKER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...ERN OK/NERN TX... REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE HAS PROVEN EFFICIENT IN LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL INFLUENCE OF LLJ ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE. ...SOUTH TX... DEEPENING SLY MOIST PLUME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHEAR AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MOIST PROFILES BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO WARRANT SOME MINIMAL RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 12:46:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 07:46:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406071246.i57Cka811463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071244 SWODY1 SPC AC 071241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IWD 60 NNE MSP STC 35 N AXN BJI 15 WNW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 N LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 55 ENE ANW 40 NNE 9V9 20 SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 ENE BML 20 WSW LCI 30 SE BGM 15 NW JHW ...CONT... 145 ENE APN 25 WNW OSC 15 WSW GRR 35 SSE SBN 20 ESE MIE 30 SE CMH 50 WSW RIC 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 75 WNW MRF 35 SSW ROW 45 SE SAF 35 N LVS 35 NE TAD 25 SSE LIC 25 SE CYS 25 SSW DGW 40 S GCC 40 NE 81V 10 SE Y22 10 WSW JMS 55 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CTB HLN 30 NNE 27U 50 ESE BKE 50 S BNO 20 NW MHS CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/NERN MN...EXTREME NWRN WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS ND AND INTO NWRN ON LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LOW DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. SURFACE WARM FRONT...SITUATED ACROSS NRN MN AT SUNRISE...WILL TRANSLATE NWD TO LIE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS INSIST THAT LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MN AND WRN WI NEWD THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD BENEATH PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN FACT...12Z SURFACE/ UPPER AIR ANALYSES ALREADY SHOW NEAR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER NCNTRL MN AND A 9.3 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AT ABERDEEN. AS WARM SECTOR RAPIDLY HEATS THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 4000-4500 J/KG ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. THOUGH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK...VIGOROUS HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TO AID IN CAP BREACH. FIRST INITIATION IS LIKELY OVER NWRN ONT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO NERN/CNTRL MN 21-00 UTC ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME TODAY...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 1KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 230 M2/S2...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT GIANT HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXTREME NWRN WI AND THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI DURING THE EVENING. AS THEY DO SO...COLD POOL GENERATION MAY TRANSITION SEVERE THREATS INTO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. FARTHER SW...VERY WARM MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL NOSE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO ERN SD AND SWRN MN. THIS WILL TEND TO DELAY ANY THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS MAY VERY WELL DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE/ LEE-TROUGH FROM WRN KS ACROSS NRN NEB INTO SWRN MN. RISKS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY... ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. ...ERN OK/NERN TX... IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT MCS/MCV OVER NCNTRL TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NERN TX DURING TODAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN TSTM INITIATION. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. ...FL... MIAMI...TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SAMPLE H5 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND MINUS 8C. HEATING...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZES AND THE RELATIVELY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL...PROBABLY FAVORING INLAND AREAS. ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SOUTH TX... INCREASINGLY MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY MIDLEVEL SHEAR AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MOIST PROFILES BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO WARRANT SOME MINIMAL RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 16:14:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 11:14:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406071614.i57GEc828427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071610 SWODY1 SPC AC 071608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW IWD 65 NNE MSP 30 NE STC 20 WNW BRD BJI 15 WNW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 25 NW LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 40 ENE ANW 20 WSW 9V9 20 SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 40 SE GTF 75 NW SUN 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 35 ESE 4CR 45 NE LVS 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 55 SW PHP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 15 NNW GRR 50 WSW FWA 20 SSW LUK 20 WNW BKW 35 W RIC 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 N PBG 35 N GFL ALB 10 SE BGM 20 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BBW 10 SSE MCK 35 NNW GCK 50 W GAG 35 WSW END 20 E EMP 20 NE MKC 35 ENE P35 10 WNW OTM 30 S ALO 45 SSE RST 25 WSW FOD 20 SSE OFK 25 SSE BBW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN INTO NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY ENEWD TO ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX...90-100 KT AT 500MB...WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG ND/CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. 40-50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MN INTO WI AND LS BY THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL VEERING TO WSWLY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT AT 15Z ALONG ERN BORDER OF ND THEN SSWWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB THEN TRAILING WSWWD INTO SRN WY. FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN INTO ARROWHEAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOW ITS SEWD MOVEMENT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEB PORTION. WITH THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN INTO WRN UP OF MICHIGAN MOVING N OF US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...ALL OF UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED BY THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CAPPED...VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXCEEDING 8C/KM AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF EXPLOSIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY AREA MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT CAP WILL GIVE WAY DURING THE MAX AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN MN. WITH SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 25KT...HELICITIES OF 200-300 J/KG AND MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG...DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SEEMS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY AS THE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION HAIL MODELS DO INDICATE THAT ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DOWNBURST WINDS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWWD VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS FAR S AS NRN NEB. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THIS AREA OF OUTLOOK...HOWEVER WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE CAP REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL U.S. ...ERN OK/WRN AR... WEAK SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SCENTRAL OK IS NOW DRIFTING E OF N AND BY TONIGHT SHOULD BE INTO NERN OK. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT E AND SE OF UPPER LOW ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE IS LIKELY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR THIS PM. ...SERN U.S.. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF SERN U.S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE THREAT TO THE PULSE VARIETY LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY RANDOM IN NATURE...DRIVEN BY THE MESO-SCALE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 20:01:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 15:01:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406072000.i57K0s800613@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071957 SWODY1 SPC AC 071956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW IWD 30 SSW DLH 45 SSW HIB 45 E BJI INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 NW LSE 30 S FRM 25 S YKN 20 NNE ANW 9V9 25 SE ABR 20 SSE FAR 10 SE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 40 SE GTF 75 NW SUN 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 30 S 4CR 25 NW RTN 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 40 SW RAP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 15 NNW GRR 50 WSW FWA 20 SSW LUK 20 WNW BKW 35 W RIC 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 N PBG 35 N GFL ALB 10 SE BGM 20 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BBW 10 SSE MCK 35 NNW GCK 50 W GAG 25 NNW OKC 40 NNW MHK 35 NNW FNB 20 ENE LWD 10 WNW OTM 30 S ALO 35 N ALO 30 SW FOD 20 SSE OFK 25 SSE BBW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN SD/EXTREME NERN NEB... UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...AND TO JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD INTO NWRN MN THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN NEB. NRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SRN PART OF FRONT REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN NEB. WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST SOUTH OF DLH THEN NWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD...ALTHOUGH THE NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE RETARDED BY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF COOL LAKE WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN SD NEWD INTO NRN MN...AND WARM 700 MB THERMAL AXIS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CAPPING SURFACE-BASED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN DURING THE 21-00Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN SWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT /SEE DLH VAD PROFILE/ CREATING STRONG SHEAR AND SRH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND PERMIT A WIDELY SCATTERED LINE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 00-02Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONGER CELLS AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS OVER EXTREME NERN NEB/ERN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING FLORIDA PENINSULA... VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70-75F RANGE. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE A FEW WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ...ERN TX... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THEY MAY DEVELOP AN AGGREGATE OUTFLOW SPREADING NWD WITH TIME. THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS NWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...NERN OK INTO ERN KS/WRN MO... CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD OVER CENTRAL OK...WITH GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE ROTATION. STRONGER HEATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY RESULT IN NEW STORM FORMATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 01:02:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 20:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406080102.i58128813614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 NW LSE 30 S FRM 25 WNW OFK 15 SW BBW 60 WNW LBF 60 W VTN 50 N VTN 15 WNW HON 20 NNE ATY 45 E FAR 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 S 4CR 25 NW RTN 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 40 SW RAP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 50 N FCA 15 S 3DU 35 SW 27U 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 25 NNE BEH 40 NW LAF 40 NNE EVV 35 SW LEX 30 W BKW 25 NNW RWI 15 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW EAR 40 ESE MCK 10 NE GCK 30 SSE AMA 15 SSW BGS 25 WSW SJT 25 WSW BWD 30 E SPS 25 WNW TUL 45 ENE MKC 10 W OTM 30 S ALO 40 W ALO 50 ESE SUX 20 SSE OFK 20 N GRI 20 SW EAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEB... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DEPICT A MUCH STRONGER CAP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF WARM AIR ADVECTING EWD AROUND 700MB...ROUGHLY 13C...ACROSS SD...SRN HALF OF MN INTO WI. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS ONTARIO...LLJ IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT/DEEP CONVERGENCE. OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE IS THE EXPECTED INCREASE TO THE LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL IMPINGE ON THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN SD/NRN NEB. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-4HRS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT SOON DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD IT APPEARS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL MN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF ACTIVITY CAN GENERATE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NRN MN WOULD HOWEVER LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. FARTHER SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONT INTO NEB WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS AT THIS TIME. ...MIDDLE UPPER TX COAST... DEEP SLY FLOW OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS AIDED NWD EXPANDING MCS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN TX. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP SUPPORTS THIS NWD EXPANSION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 05:41:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 00:41:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406080541.i585f3819181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080539 SWODY1 SPC AC 080537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 25 ENE BIE 25 N RSL 35 S GLD 30 WSW LIC 30 W FCL 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 WNW YKM 25 SE YKM 35 NNW ALW 25 WNW S06 30 NE MSO 45 W BIL 50 SW MBG 55 N ATY 25 ENE BRD 85 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EPM 15 SE MPV 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 25 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 45 E JAC 25 E MQM 65 SW 27U 80 WNW OWY 25 N LOL 25 ENE TVL 35 NW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NRN CA. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR LITTLE SWD MOVEMENT TO THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SWWD INTO NEB. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATE EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DEPICTED A VERY WARM CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PLUME OF ELEVATED AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPLIED FROM UPSTREAM HEAT SOURCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FORCE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE...PER RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY LATE AFTERNOON STRONG SFC HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO BREAK CAP ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NERN CO. WITH INCREASING ELY COMPONENT NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT EVOLVE. EWD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE...NORTH OF THE FRONT...IS EXPECTED AS LLJ INCREASES SHORTLY AFTER DARK. ...NRN MAINE... WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BORDER DURING THE DAY. DEEPENING WLY COMPONENT WILL DRIVE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD NRN PORTIONS OF NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STRONGEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL NOT APPROACH THIS REGION UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 12:56:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 07:56:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406081255.i58Ctx802257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081254 SWODY1 SPC AC 081252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS 25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 30 WSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 30 SSE BGS 45 NNW CDS 40 NE GAG 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 WNW YKM 25 SE YKM 35 NNW ALW 25 WNW S06 30 NE MSO 10 S 3HT 45 SSE GDV 20 N DVL 45 N TVF 20 NNE AXN 15 SSE DLH 50 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EPM 20 S MPV 15 SSW ROC 30 NW CLE 30 S FDY 40 WNW UNI 40 ENE EKN 25 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 45 E JAC 25 E MQM 65 SW 27U 80 WNW OWY 25 N LOL 25 ENE TVL 35 NW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID / UPPER LOW CENTER NOW OVER ORE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD WITH TIME INTO NRN CA...WITH RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD. BELT OF STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT -- WITHIN HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND CENTRAL / ERN CANADA TROUGH -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD / NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS / MIDDLE MO VALLEYS TO A LOW CENTER IN ERN CO. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS CANADA AND APPROACH NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PERSISTS OVER ERN CO. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TX NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO MO / IL / IN ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM WITHIN WARM ADVECTION N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB AND THE DAKOTAS...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG / N OF BOUNDARY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES / WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ALONG MUCH OF FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. NONETHELESS...CONVECTION / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION WITHIN BROAD / PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG / N OF FRONT. ...MAINE... ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL ETA SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ETAKF AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WHICH WOULD DEVELOP WOULD POSE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WHICH IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ETAKF / RUC GUIDANCE AND THUS MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ASSUMING STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AGAIN SUGGESTS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN ME. ...SRN FL... MORNING EYW / MIA SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH H5 TEMPERATURE NEAR -9C. THIS WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND A FEW SEVERE REPORTS WITH MORE INTENSE STORM PULSES -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG W COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 16:28:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 11:28:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406081628.i58GS8215561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081625 SWODY1 SPC AC 081623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS 25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 25 ESE JAC 15 SSW MQM 75 SW 27U 65 WSW BOI 65 NW WMC 30 W LOL 25 ENE TVL 50 NNE MER 25 W MER 15 S SJC 40 NW SFO ...CONT... 55 E BLI 40 NW EAT 15 N EPH GEG 25 WNW S06 LWT 35 WNW GCC 35 S 81V 25 N RAP 10 NNE Y22 45 NE BIS 25 WSW GFK 30 N BJI 40 N HIB 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 15 SE EFK 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 35 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA BY 12Z WED. DOWNSTREAM MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND WARM LAPSE RATES. THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING RAPIDLY ENEWD SRN CANADA CURRENTLY CROSSING JAMES BAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS REMAINING PRIMARILY N OF CONUS. THERE WILL BE FRINGE EFFECTS ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX PASSES BY TO THE N. TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THRU CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES... WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AIR MASS VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN AND WI. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KT MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A MULTI-CELL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STORMS WILL BE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. UPSLOPE ELYS N OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WWD VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE E CO...WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD TO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/SERN WY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...SERN U.S... AGAIN TODAY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MDT LAPSE RATES WITH MINUS 9C TEMP AT 500MB MUCH OF AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. TYPICALLY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ...SRN PLAINS... THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX UNDER WAY SRN PLAINS IS ACCOMPANIED BY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON CENTRAL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AREA GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND VERY LOW LCL'S. ...NRN ME... WITH THE STRONG WIND MAX PASSING BY TO THE N OF ME TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 16:29:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 11:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406081628.i58GSh215948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081627 SWODY1 SPC AC 081625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS 25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 25 ESE JAC 15 SSW MQM 75 SW 27U 65 WSW BOI 65 NW WMC 30 W LOL 25 ENE TVL 50 NNE MER 25 W MER 15 S SJC 40 NW SFO ...CONT... 55 E BLI 40 NW EAT 15 N EPH GEG 25 WNW S06 LWT 35 WNW GCC 35 S 81V 25 N RAP 10 NNE Y22 45 NE BIS 25 WSW GFK 30 N BJI 40 N HIB 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 15 SE EFK 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 35 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA BY 12Z WED. DOWNSTREAM MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND WARM LAPSE RATES. THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING RAPIDLY ENEWD SRN CANADA CURRENTLY CROSSING JAMES BAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS REMAINING PRIMARILY N OF CONUS. THERE WILL BE FRINGE EFFECTS ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX PASSES BY TO THE N. TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THRU CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES... WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AIR MASS VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN AND WI. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KT MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A MULTI-CELL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STORMS WILL BE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. UPSLOPE ELYS N OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WWD VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE E CO...WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD TO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/SERN WY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...SERN U.S... AGAIN TODAY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MDT LAPSE RATES WITH MINUS 9C TEMP AT 500MB MUCH OF AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. TYPICALLY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ...SRN PLAINS... THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX UNDER WAY SRN PLAINS IS ACCOMPANIED BY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON CENTRAL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AREA GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND VERY LOW LCL'S. ...NRN ME... WITH THE STRONG WIND MAX PASSING BY TO THE N OF ME TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 20:10:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 15:10:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406082010.i58KAI208029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082005 SWODY1 SPC AC 082003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE OSC 40 NW MKG 55 E OMA GLD 10 NNW LIC 20 NNW DEN 45 N LAR 25 E DGW 45 WNW CDR 55 WNW VTN 35 ESE MHE 20 E MSP 45 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 35 WNW EAT 15 NE 3TH 30 NNW 3HT 40 N SHR 30 SSW 4BQ 40 ESE 4BQ 40 WSW BIS 25 W GFK 40 W INL ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 25 SE EFK 30 NNW UCA 20 W BFD 40 SSE FKL 30 SSE LBE 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 75 SW GDP 50 NE 4CR 35 SW COS 40 E RWL 25 NNW JAC 65 NNE BOI 70 NNW WMC 15 E RNO 40 NE SCK 35 NE SFO 55 S UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BGS 50 S CDS 50 WSW END 30 W EMP 10 SSW MHK 25 SSE CNK 30 SW RSL 20 ESE EHA 50 WSW AMA 40 E HOB 15 WNW BGS 45 NE BGS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO. PARTIAL CLEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S F ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORM INITIATION HAS BEEN PREVENTED BY A CAPPING INVERSION OVER CO AND NEB. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP BY 21Z AND INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA ACROSS SW AND CNTRL NEB...REF MD 1140. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN THIS AREA FROM ABOUT 30 KT TO ABOUT 40 KT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS WCNTRL NEB. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB. THIS IS CREATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS THE SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE EWD SUPERCELL TRACK POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MATURE EARLY THIS EVENING. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS SW AND CNTRL NEB WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NEB WHERE SFC TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GREATER. A CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS...SHOULD TRACK NEWD REACHING IA...SRN MN AND WI LATER TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS SEEN ON THE 18Z DAVENPORT IA SOUNDING. ...NRN ME... SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN QUEBEC ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WHERE MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG). THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN ME...THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KT COULD HELP THE STORMS RETAIN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN ME BY EARLY EVENING. ...FL... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING WRN FL ATTM. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL FAVOR PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL FAVOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO AROUND FT MYERS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY EVENING AS THE AIR STABILIZES. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 06:01:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 01:01:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406090600.i5960e212516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090558 SWODY1 SPC AC 090557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 45 NNE MSV 25 W BFD 35 NNW MFD 35 N LAF 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 25 NNE MKG 75 ESE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS 30 NNE RWL 40 WNW CPR 35 WSW GCC 15 S 81V 40 NNW CDR 50 ENE AIA 20 SE MHN 25 ESE BUB 15 SSW OLU 40 E HSI 50 ENE HLC 40 SSE GLD 30 SSE LHX 15 WNW PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 WSW CYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS 30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 40 NE JMS 25 W AXN 50 NNE MSP 10 NNE RHI 15 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FROM SERN WY TO ERN CO... ...SRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RISE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AIRMASS HAS GRADUALLY MOISTENED UPSTREAM FROM THIS REGION WITH SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG. DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY STEEP...ROUGHLY 6-6.5C/KM...FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. MEAN WIND VECTOR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A MORE SLY COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR GRADUAL COOLING AT CAPPING LEVELS AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH PERSISTENT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S/60S IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN WY INTO NEB PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE MOIST WITH TIME. LATEST THINKING IS DIURNAL INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NEWD MOVEMENT/OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO NEB WHERE LLJ SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...TX... N-S DEEP LAYER SHEAR AXIS HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WWD SHIFT IS OBSERVED. VERY MOIST PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OF SOME CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES...AT LEAST 20KT IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 13:03:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 08:03:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406091303.i59D3G206922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091300 SWODY1 SPC AC 091258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N LAR 45 NNW RIW 40 S LVM 30 SE BTM 60 SSW MSO 10 ESE 3TH FCA 15 NW GTF 30 NW SHR 20 NE 81V 55 ENE CDR 20 ENE MHN 15 N BUB 25 N GRI 10 NNW HSI 30 SSW EAR 35 NW GLD 25 SW LAA 15 WNW PUB 20 SE 4FC 45 N LAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 15 SW MSV 15 NNW PIT 20 WSW MFD 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 30 WSW HTL 75 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS 30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 35 SSE DVL 60 N ATY 55 NW RWF 30 S STC 15 SW IMT 30 ENE PLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH OVER CA MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN ATTM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...BELT OF STRONGER SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD. MEANWHILE...MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND ERN CANADA TROUGH. ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ANTICYCLONICALLY NNEWD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NERN CONUS...WHILE LINGERING IN AN E-W DIRECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN NWWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWWD ACROSS WY INTO WRN MT... WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION JUST N OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWWD...WHERE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE -- MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- ACROSS THIS REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY...EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...AND MAY ALSO SPREAD EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NEB AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ...NRN IL EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS SRN ONTARIO / THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST /60S DEWPOINTS/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON...FUELING THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WITHIN MORE STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WIND FIELD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUGGEST A HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVERLAPS WITH STRONGER FLOW -- PERHAPS ACROSS VT / NH / SRN ME -- A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER THREAT MAY EXIST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED ATTM IN TERMS OF LOCATING ANY POTENTIAL AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITY. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 16:21:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 11:21:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406091621.i59GL0220609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091618 SWODY1 SPC AC 091616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW LAR 45 NW LND 50 NW PIH 40 N SUN 60 SSW MSO 10 ESE 3TH FCA 15 NW GTF 30 NW SHR 20 NE 81V 55 ENE CDR 20 ENE MHN 15 N BUB 25 N GRI 10 NNW HSI 30 SSW EAR 40 SSE GLD 45 ENE TAD 30 SW COS 20 SE 4FC 40 NNW LAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 15 SW MSV 15 NNW PIT 20 WSW MFD 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 30 WSW HTL 75 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS 30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 60 NNW UKI 25 N ACV ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 35 SSE DVL FAR 30 W BRD 65 SSW DLH 35 S IWD 30 ENE ESC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONP 35 NW PDX 10 NW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPR OH VALLEY EWD TO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WNWWD INTO SWRN MT/SERN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG TROUGH THAT HAS DEEPENED INTO NV WILL MOVE EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS AS VIGOROUS SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. WEAK UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER EJECTING NEWD INTO SRN PLAINS AS TROPICAL SLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE MOVING INTO NERN U.S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. FRONT TRAILS WSWWD AND BECOMES STATIONARY THRU NRN IA...CENTRAL NEB/NWRN KS AND WWD INTO CENTRAL CO. SURFACE LOW NRN NV/UT BORDER AREA WILL DEEPEN NEWD INTO WRN WY TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...NERN U.S... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON FROM UPR OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE VERY STRONG WLYS HEADING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CIN...WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS FREEZING AND WBZ LEVELS ARE HIGH. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES ENHANCING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WNWWD ACROSS WY/SRN MT AND ERN ID. UPSLOPE FLOW TO N OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD FROM NERN CO INTO MUCH OF WY... AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SWRN MT/SERN ID. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY HIGH TERRAIN WY/NRN CO AND SPREAD E/NEWD INTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES TO 1500-2500 J/KG ERN CO/WY AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ON N SIDE OF FRONTAL ZONE...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO LIKELY. AS UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION INCREASE NEWD ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS SERN ID/SWRN MT WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SHEAR FOR A LEAST HIGH BASED STORMS. ...SRN PLAINS... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A VERY TROPICAL SLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF VORT MAX EJECTING FROM NRN MEXICO. WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG THERE CONTINUES A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ERN TX. THREAT IS CONSIDERED TOO BE TO MARGINAL FOR A RISK AREA. ...FL... VERY SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE IS PLENTIFUL PW AND HIGH CAPES IN FL. SINCE 500MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY COOL...MINUS 9C...PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:12:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:12:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406092012.i59KCC221551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092006 SWODY1 SPC AC 092004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LAA 25 ENE TAD 30 WSW PUB 15 NNE 4FC 35 NE RWL 40 SSW JAC 45 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 15 ENE LWS 45 WNW S06 70 NNW 3TH 45 WNW FCA 30 NNE FCA 45 N LWT 15 S ANW 25 SE BBW 40 SSW EAR 60 N GCK 35 S LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BML 15 NW EPM ...CONT... 10 WSW HYA 20 SE FWA 30 NW LAF 40 WSW MMO 35 NE MLI 25 SSW MSN 40 N MKE 105 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 WSW ONM 60 WNW GUP 55 ESE SGU 45 WSW DRA 10 N FAT 35 ESE UKI ACV ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 35 SSW GFK 10 S BRD 30 NNW RHI 25 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 35 WNW PDX 10 ESE CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WITH A COLD POOL IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM NW OH EWD TO SRN NY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EWD...THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NY AND NRN PA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS NY AND NRN PA...RANGING FROM 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM. OTHER SEVERE STORMS CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN NY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS NH...VT AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO VERY LITTLE SHEAR...THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD LOSE THEIR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE DENVER AREA EXTENDING EWD INTO NW KS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN WY AND FAR NRN CO IS WEAKER BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THAT AREA. BACKED SFC FLOW OVER ERN CO AND SRN WY IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS VEERING COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE CO AND LOWER LCLS ACROSS NE CO AND SE WY WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FARTHER NW ACROSS NW WY...ERN ID AND SWRN MT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUIET STRONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. SBCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:23:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:23:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406092022.i59KMa227408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092015 SWODY1 SPC AC 092013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LAA 25 ENE TAD 30 WSW PUB 15 NNE 4FC 35 NE RWL 40 SSW JAC 45 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 15 ENE LWS 45 WNW S06 70 NNW 3TH 45 WNW FCA 30 NNE FCA 45 N LWT 15 S ANW 25 SE BBW 40 SSW EAR 60 N GCK 35 S LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 35 NW LAF 40 WSW MMO 35 NE MLI 25 SSW MSN 40 N MKE 105 E OSC ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 15 NW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 35 WNW PDX 10 ESE CLM ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 35 SSW GFK 10 S BRD 30 NNW RHI 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 35 WNW ELP 35 WSW ONM 60 WNW GUP 55 ESE SGU 45 WSW DRA 10 N FAT 35 ESE UKI ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WITH A COLD POOL IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM NW OH EWD TO SRN NY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EWD...THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NY AND NRN PA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS NY AND NRN PA...RANGING FROM 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM. OTHER SEVERE STORMS CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN NY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS NH...VT AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO VERY LITTLE SHEAR...THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD LOSE THEIR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE DENVER AREA EXTENDING EWD INTO NW KS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN WY AND FAR NRN CO IS WEAKER BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THAT AREA. BACKED SFC FLOW OVER ERN CO AND SRN WY IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS VEERING COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE CO AND LOWER LCLS ACROSS NE CO AND SE WY WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FARTHER NW ACROSS NW WY...ERN ID AND SWRN MT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUIET STRONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. SBCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 01:22:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 20:22:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406100121.i5A1Ll232280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100119 SWODY1 SPC AC 100117 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW FCA 35 E FCA 25 E LWT 35 S BIL 10 SW JAC 15 NW PIH 30 W 27U 40 ENE LWS 40 NW 3TH 40 WNW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BUB 20 W GRI 20 WNW LBL 45 WNW EHA 20 ESE LHX LIC 15 SE LAR 25 SSW DGW 30 ENE DGW 55 NW MHN 25 NNE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE NEL 30 N BWI 20 SSE MGW 20 WSW PKB 35 W CMH 15 NE FDY 15 W JXN 20 SW MBS 30 N MTC ...CONT... 30 NNE JHW 25 NE BOS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S UMN 10 WSW MLC 35 NNW ADM OKC 30 N BVO 15 N JLN 20 S UMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF 40 NNE SAF 35 NNW DRO 10 SSW MLF 55 SSE BIH 10 E MER 35 ESE UKI ACV ...CONT... 20 SSE CEC 20 NE SLE 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 50 NNE ATY 10 W RWF 35 NW OSH OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH A SMALL PARTS OF SERN KS...SWRN MO... ...NERN U.S.... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MAINE SWWD THROUGH SRN MI...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL MULTICELL LINES OF STORMS PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...CNTRL PLAINS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN MCS DUE IN PART TO NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NEB. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN MOIST UNSTABLE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN MT TONIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS N OF NWD DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE/BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SW MO... LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. SELY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET E OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY (300-400 M2/S2) FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SW MO. STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING WITH SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LINES OBSERVED. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM BELOW VERY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN THEAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING... MAINLY WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NERN OK. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 05:58:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 00:58:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406100557.i5A5vv222879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100555 SWODY1 SPC AC 100553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW YKN 30 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 60 S Y22 9V9 60 WSW YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ORF 40 WNW HTS 15 NW BRL 35 NNE CID 25 WSW LNR 20 NW SBN 25 NW LBE 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW 20 ESE EHA 15 NNW BFF 55 SW MLS 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E HUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RRT 50 SSW DLH 40 ENE EAU 50 NE MKE 30 SSE DTW 20 NNW FKL 30 NE MSV 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 30 W EHA 40 SSE LIC 30 SSW DEN 35 W ASE 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 20 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH SRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS IN BASE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NRN WY AND ERN MT. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS...SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM NEB INTO WY WILL LIFT NWD INTO CNTRL OR NRN SD DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH AN OCCLUSION EXTENDING NWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S RESIDES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS S OF WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH IA AND NEB. MODERATELY STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WY/MT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH AND NWWD THROUGH MUCH OF SD. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME N OF THE WARM FRONT. S OF THIS BOUNDARY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS...NEB AND SD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB/NWRN KS AND NWWD ALONG AND NE OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THROUGH SD INTO SERN MT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT ALONG WITH A SLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SD NWWD INTO MT...WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND BACKED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SWD FROM NEB INTO KS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DISCRETE LONGER. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN MDT RISK AREA THROUGH MID EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE STRONGLY FROM WRN KS SWD INTO PARTS OF NW TX. INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN WEAKER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MIXING COMMENCES AND AS BAND OF STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS S OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS NW TX. MOREOVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI AREA... STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST N OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA. VORT MAX NOW OVER SE KS/SW MO WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND N OF WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF IA THROUGH NRN IL. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM ERN IA/NRN IL. HOWEVER...GIVEN PERSISTENT ONGOING STORMS...THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND S OF E-W COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED... KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 13:07:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 08:07:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406101307.i5AD7U218488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101305 SWODY1 SPC AC 101303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 40 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 40 S Y22 9V9 50 NE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ORF 35 WNW HTS 15 NNW BRL 30 ENE CID 30 SW LNR 20 NW SBN 25 NW LBE 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW 20 ESE EHA 15 NNW BFF 55 SW MLS 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E HUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 10 SW EAU 30 ESE VOK 45 WNW MKG 25 S MTC 20 ENE ERI 30 NE MSV 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 30 WNW EHA 40 NNE LHX 30 SSW DEN 35 W ASE 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB...AND NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. ALONG WITH THIS TROUGH...INCREASINGLY-STRONG SWLY / SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO IA. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED / SEGMENTED WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...AS BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS FROM ERN MT SWD INTO ERN NM. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN WHICH MODELS FORECAST SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS. ALTHOUGH WEAK WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENTS MAY EXIST WITH EACH OF THESE LOWS...IT APPEARS THAT BACKED / SELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH / FRONT / DRYLINE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN MT SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. INCREASINGLY-STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND WRN NEB NWD INTO THE WRN 2/3 OF SD WHERE MORE SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MODE SHOULD INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR...TREND -- PARTICULARLY FROM NEB NWD -- MAY BE TOWARD LINEAR / MCS MODE...PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS / VEERS WITH TIME. ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / NEB TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH STRONGER UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK / N TX. THIS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW LOCAL BREACHING OF CAP AND ASSOCIATED / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW / DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. ...MIDWEST ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION ATTM -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN IL ESEWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG SURFACE FRONT DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED...AXIS OF MODERATE WNWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ATTM...POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 16:43:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 11:43:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406101643.i5AGhR231787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101638 SWODY1 SPC AC 101636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 40 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 40 S Y22 9V9 50 NE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ORF 45 WSW RIC 30 ENE SSU 15 W MGW 15 NNE LBE 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW EHA 20 NNW BFF 10 SSW GCC 35 E BIL 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E HUT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S JLN 10 SW MKC 10 NNW LWD MLI 10 NE MMO 40 SSE SBN 10 W MIE BMG 15 WSW SLO 30 SSE TBN 20 NNW HRO 20 S JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO 20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...NEB...AND NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER ID MOVING ENEWD WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE SRN AND SERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN WY IS NOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE OVR SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS OVER WY WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO AND ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND WRN ND TONIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TODAY...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER NERN CO. THE ASSOCIATED DRY LINE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING SWRN SD/WRN NEB/WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z AND WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO NEB/KS/OK AND WILL INHIBIT HEATING ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE DRY LINE WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMAL WHICH WILL PROMOTE MORE RAPID DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN WY VORTICITY MAX COUPLES WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION TO RELEASE INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH SUPERCELL FORMATION LIKELY. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO WRN SD AND WRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A BAND OR BROKEN LINE DURING THE EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE. THE ETA APPEARS TOO DRY IN THE POTENTIAL CLOUD LAYER FOR THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME TO ACTIVATE DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE THE ETAKF DEVELOPS CELLS OVER KS SWD INTO WRN TX. EXPECTATIONS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODEL OUTPUT. 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATING THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 04-6Z. ...LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS VALLEY... SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY. AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS SOUTH OF PRECIPITATION BAND FROM IA INTO NRN IL INDICATE REGION WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH VAD/PROFILERS SHOWING 30-40 KT FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA. BREAKS IN CLOUDS FROM SRN PA TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL ALLOW LOCAL AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 20:21:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 15:21:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406102021.i5AKLL210828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102015 SWODY1 SPC AC 102013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HLC 40 ENE GLD 25 S IML 30 SE CDR 55 NE CDR 25 SSE PHP 45 W 9V9 40 SSW 9V9 15 ESE EAR 40 NE HLC 15 W HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDS 30 WSW CDS 25 ENE AMA 30 NNE EHA 35 NE AKO 55 NNE DGW 70 E BIL 70 WNW MLS 40 SSW OLF 15 ENE SDY 30 SSW P24 40 ENE MBG 35 SSW MHE 45 ESE HSI 45 SW END 15 SSW LTS 20 SSE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 30 NNE RIC 30 SSE CHO 25 SSE ROA 15 E PSK 15 WSW SSU 15 SSW EKN 45 WNW MRB 15 S CXY 25 SSE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SLO 15 NNW ALN 50 NNE COU 15 NNE IRK 35 WNW BRL 15 NNW PIA 20 S LAF 10 SSE LUK 40 ENE LEX 30 SE LEX 55 SW LEX 40 WSW SDF 25 E SLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO 20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB...CNTRL NEB...SRN SD AND NW KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...GREAT PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW IN NE CO WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN IA. AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NM AND SE CO WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE SCATTERED STORM INITIATION OCCURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FAVOR STORM INITIATION BY 22Z EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB. THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...NW KS AND SRN SD WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NW KS AND CNTRL NEB WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD STRONG ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A LARGE MCS SHOULD DEVELOP...TRACKING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB...ERN SD REACHING MN AND IA LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. ...OH VALLEY... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN IL ACROSS NRN IND. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MO AND AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST CONSIDERING THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WV EXTENDING ESEWD INTO ERN VA WHERE SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY NOTABLY ACROSS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 T0 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FLOW IS PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL...FROM THE W AND NW AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR SEWD MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 04:29:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 23:29:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406110429.i5B4T2207711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110111 SWODY1 SPC AC 110109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BMI BRL 25 ENE CID 35 W JVL 25 NNW CGX 40 S SBN 25 NW MIE 30 E IND 15 E BMG 30 NE MTO 30 WSW BMI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABR 45 N RWF 25 N FOD 10 SSW FNB 20 WNW EMP 10 W HUT 45 WSW RSL 30 SSE MHN 65 S Y22 50 WNW SHR 75 WNW MLS 15 N SDY 55 NNE ABR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SW HIB 30 ESE EAU 20 WNW GRR 25 NW LBE JFK ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 40 ENE LBB GCK 15 NNW IML 35 SE MTJ 15 SW 4HV 55 NE ENV 20 SSE HLN 55 NE FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND... ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM EXTREME NRN KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND CNTRL SD. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS FROM NRN KS NWD THROUGH NEB REMAIN DISCRETE...AND BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES... WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE AS ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST LATE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB...WRN IA AND SERN SD. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD COMMENCE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. ...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN IND WWD THROUGH NRN IL AND CNTRL IA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH IL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND. THE 00Z RAOB FROM CNTRL IL SHOWED SURFACE-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 BASED ON OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AND ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...SRN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS REMAIN ACTIVE WITHIN IN ZONE OF MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM SW KS SWWD THROUGH W TX. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWS THE EML HAS SPREAD EWD OVER TOP OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AN EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA IS CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATING A STORM. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THREAT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE CAP STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 12:47:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 07:47:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406111247.i5BClJ208957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111244 SWODY1 SPC AC 111242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EWN 50 N RWI PSK 15 WSW HTS 35 NNW SDF MDH 10 SW CGI SGF 20 NW MKO ABI BGS 35 ESE PVW P28 15 NW MHK SUX 40 WSW FAR TVF HIB CWA 10 ESE MKE 10 SSE CGX LAF MIE MFD PIT MRB DCA 15 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 SSW MAF 30 E PVW 15 WSW SLN 10 N CNK 45 N GRI 10 WSW 9V9 20 NE RAP 55 SSW GCC 55 NW CAG 55 NNE U28 25 E U24 55 S ENV 10 W BOI 25 SE LWS 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 50 ESE ESC 15 ESE FNT 15 NNW CLE 20 ENE HGR 20 E DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... SEVERAL LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ARE STILL PROMINENT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS INCLUDES LEAD SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES...AS STRONG UPSTREAM JET STREAK...ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF ALASKA CLOSED LOW...NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ...PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITH BROADER SCALE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHEAST PROGRESSION INTO MANITOBA AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RATHER SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE EASTERN LIMIT TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT... BUT SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROGGED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY...BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER IOWA BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ENHANCED BY SHARP CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...FORCING MOIST/MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA WILL REMAIN AROUND 70F...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BY LATE AFTERNOON ...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AFTER 12/00Z... AS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS AND VEERS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY COMPONENT. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO LIE ALONG/ NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF FORT DODGE IA INTO THE WATERLOO AREA. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ARE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIMIT CAPE AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT. ALONG DRY LINE TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVE INHIBITIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS DRY LINE BEGINS TO RETREAT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NORTHEAST... DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OUT OF ONGOING STORMS OVER CENTRAL OHIO...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT UP QUICKLY THROUGH MID DAY AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN 30-35 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME. MID-LEVEL/UPPER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH CLUSTER ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 16:36:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 11:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406111635.i5BGZq218576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111633 SWODY1 SPC AC 111631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE 25 SSE LNR 35 NW MLI 40 N OTM 35 S FOD 20 ENE OTG 35 NNE RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU 25 ESE LSE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE EWN 50 NNW RWI 15 WSW PSK 25 SSE JKL 30 SSW SDF 10 SW MDH 20 WSW CGI 15 SW SGF 25 S TUL 10 W ABI 35 ENE BGS 15 SSW CDS 30 NW END 35 N MHK 10 WNW SUX 10 SSW BIS 50 N MOT 55 WNW RRT 15 SW CWA MKE 15 SSW CGX 10 W LAF 35 W MIE 20 S CMH 20 SSW HLG 20 SW MRB 10 WNW DCA 15 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 35 SE AZO 20 WNW CAK 30 WNW DOV 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 W CSM 10 NNW HUT 15 ENE GRI 50 NE BUB 40 W 9V9 50 SSE GCC 55 NW RWL 35 NNW PUC 20 SW U24 30 SSW ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW OWY 60 SW 27U 50 S S06 15 WNW GEG 45 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NRN IA AND SWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. ESEWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW ROTATING NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL WIND/VORT MAX MOVES FROM OH VALLEY ESEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD THRU DELMARVA THEN EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY WHERE IT IS RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THRU NRN IA. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NWRN ND MOVING NEWD WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE A SECONDARY LOW LOCATED AT TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT THEN TRAILS SSWWD THRU CENTRAL KS INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AVAILABLE TO FUEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD INTO SRN MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP TO S OF FRONT WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF NWD MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS HELICITIES OF 150-200 M2/S2 DEVELOP. BY MID AFTERNOON THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH TO ALLOW RAPID INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW EWD VICINITY OF WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE AREA OF MOST LIKELY THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES E/ENEWD VICINITY AND N OF WARM FRONT. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...REF 1188... 30-35 KT OF MID LEVEL VLYS EXTENDING FROM LOWER OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES COUPLED WITH THE MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND WEAK CIN...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES/BOWS BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN THE LOW LCL,S FOR A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES. ...NRN PLAINS... AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS ND AND SERN SD AHEAD OF SURFACE/UPPER LOW. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... THE THREAT OF STORMS BREAKING THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON TIL EARLY EVENING ACROSS KS/WRN OK AND NWRN TX. THREAT WILL DIMINISH SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS E OF DRY LINE. SUPERCELLS AS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:05:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:05:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406112005.i5BK52216177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112002 SWODY1 SPC AC 112000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE 25 SSE LNR 35 NW MLI 40 N OTM 35 S FOD 20 ENE OTG 35 NNE RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU 25 ESE LSE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE EWN 25 ESE DAN 30 SW PSK 25 SSE JKL 20 WNW SDF STL 45 NNW SGF 25 S TUL 10 W ABI 35 ENE BGS 15 SSW CDS 30 NW END 35 N MHK 10 WNW SUX 10 SSW BIS 50 N MOT 55 WNW RRT 15 SW CWA MKE 15 SSW CGX 10 W LAF 35 W MIE 20 S CMH 20 SSW HLG 20 SW MRB 10 WNW DCA 15 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 35 SE AZO 20 WNW CAK 30 WNW DOV 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 W CSM 10 NNW HUT 15 ENE GRI 50 NE BUB 40 W 9V9 50 SSE GCC 55 NW RWL 35 NNW PUC 20 SW U24 30 SSW ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW OWY 60 SW 27U 50 S S06 15 WNW GEG 45 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN MN INTO NERN IA AND SWRN WI.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUND THE MDT RISK FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF VA/NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN ALBERTA WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THROUGH WRN ND AND CENTRAL NE...THEN WWD OVER N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL KS TO ANOTHER LOW OVER E CENTRAL CO. ALSO...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND ESEWD ACROSS NERN IA AND NERN IL...THROUGH A LOW OVER E CENTRAL OH...SEWD THROUGH ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL VA SEWD THROUGH THE NC OUTER BANKS. ALSO...A SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS NWRN OK THEN SWD ALONG THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E CENTRAL MT SEWD OVER SERN SD MOVING NEWD AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO SWRN MN. STRONG FORCING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A STRONG PUSH EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MESOSCALE DATA SHOWS THAT MLCAPE VALUES HERE ARE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE WELL...AND WOULD FIGURE THAT 0-1KM HELICITY AND STREAM WISE VORTICITY WOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FRONT. THUS...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE DRYLINE. SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS HIGH WITH VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG...BUT ALSO HAS THE PRESENCE OF LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MOSTLY ACROSS ERN NE...NERN KS INTO IA COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER OHIO VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SRN DELMARVA REGION... CURRENT LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ESEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN OH INTO NERN NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...AND NOTICED A REAR INFLOW JET OF 48 KT OVER SWRN OH ACCORDING TO KILN DOPPLER RADAR. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND/JUST ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THUS...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT THAT A BOW ECHO COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS WV/VA INTO NC THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:27:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:27:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406120127.i5C1RM223776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120125 SWODY1 SPC AC 120123 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE EWN 10 WNW FAY SOP 35 N SOP 40 NNE RWI 20 NE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT 25 N AXN 20 NW AXN 40 SSW FAR 75 NW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE UIN 35 E CNU 35 W BWD 40 WNW SJT 10 W BGS 30 SSE SLN 20 SE FOD 20 S EAU 40 WSW CWA 30 ENE CGX 30 ESE MIE 45 NW LUK 30 ESE BMG 25 NNW DEC 10 ENE UIN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX AZO 10 SSW UNI 10 ENE SHD 10 NE WAL ...CONT... 80 S MRF 35 WNW CDS 35 NNW MHK 30 N OMA 15 E BKX 35 W ABR 40 W BIS 50 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ND INTO NW MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NC... ...MID THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MCS FROM MN SWWD THROUGH IA AND NW MO. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING S OF AN E-W STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IND NWWD THROUGH NRN IL AND NERN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SQUALL LINE. MOIST UNSTABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IA AND INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE THAT INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF OK INTO KS. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOWED A WEAK CAP OVER NERN KS AND LINE OVER NW MO MAY BACKBUILD INTO NERN KS. HOWEVER...OK CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH STRONGER CAP. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING. ...NC... THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH NC THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN NC REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. ...ERN ND AND NWRN MN... THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN ND INTO NW MN. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 13:41:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 08:41:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406121341.i5CDf5213222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121233 SWODY1 SPC AC 121231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLU 10 ESE OMA LWD 40 SW IRK 10 E SZL JLN TUL PNC 10 SE ICT 10 SSE RSL HLC EAR OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 E MHE 30 NW MKT 35 WSW DLH RHI MKE 10 SE SBN 30 NE DAY CMH UNI 35 SW HTS 45 SW SDF 10 SSW OWB CGI HRO FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 SW JAX 55 N AYS 30 E ATL 45 ESE AND 20 S CAE 10 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 40 NNW BGS 25 S GAG 40 W P28 45 ESE LIC 45 S 4FC 30 WSW GJT 45 WSW PUC 20 SSW SLC 35 ESE LND 45 ENE COD 45 W GTF 85 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 NE HVR 30 W ISN MOT 80 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 WNW ERI 25 ESE EKN 30 S ROA 25 SW GSO 30 S SOP 35 SW ILM ...CONT... 20 SSW HUM 15 NE LFT 30 E POE 40 SSW SHV 40 SW TYR 20 WSW ACT 45 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 20 SE SEA 35 SSE OLM AST. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MID/UPR MS VLY...AND LWR OH VLY .... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... DOWNSTREAM OF VERY STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET NOSING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME HAS ALREADY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A BIT FARTHER UPSTREAM...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER SOUTH...JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS EVIDENT NEAR THE ARIZONA/SONORA BORDER. AS THESE FEATURES PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F OVER BROAD AREA...SOUTH/WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND EAST OF INITIAL WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... WHILE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES... CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD--IN WAKE OF VIGOROUS LEAD SHORT WAVE...AND AHEAD OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVES--WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND VERY LARGE CAPE...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG. MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL BE ONGOING BY THIS TIME...AND THIS APPEARS STRONGLY TIED TO WEAKER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MIGRATING OUT OF WYOMING/COLORADO. ETA MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING FAIRLY RAPID EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/ NEBRASKA BORDER BY THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE/CAPPING INVERSION LAYER...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EVOLVES...MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT PROPAGATION INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/ NORTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MORE RAPID DISSIPATION OF CURRENT NORTHERN/ CENTRAL MISSOURI COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW COLD POOL. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING/DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...ALONG REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES IN GENERAL WILL ONLY BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ANOTHER SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE TODAY. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK... PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTIVE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA...FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION EVOLVES AS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BENEATH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR IN WEAK FLOW/WEAK SHEAR REGIME BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 15:52:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 10:52:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406121552.i5CFqS211449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121548 SWODY1 SPC AC 121546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OLU 10 ESE OMA 20 NW LWD 40 SW IRK 20 ENE SZL 10 N JLN 40 ENE ABI 30 NNW ABI 75 NW ABI P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE 30 NW MKT 35 WSW DLH RHI MKE 10 SE SBN 30 NE DAY 15 S CMH UNI 30 SE 5I3 40 NNE TYS 40 SE BWG 30 SW CGI HRO FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 SW JAX 35 NNW AYS 15 SW AHN 10 WSW AND 30 N CAE 15 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN 20 NNE DVL RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW 25 NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS 30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST THRU OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GA AND SC... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA THRU WRN MN INTO ERN NEB THEN WWD INTO CENTRAL CO. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WHERE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS DRY LINE. DRY LINE THEN TRAILS SSWWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ESEWD FROM NRN IA ACROSS OH VALLEY AND THEN SEWD AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG SC/NC BORDER. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS PLAINS AND COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG FLUX OF GULF MOISTURE HAVE PUT IN PLACE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS TO E OF DRY LINE AND SE OF COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS AREA ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BAND ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO SERN STATES. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... EXAMINING 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL RUNS THE AIR MASS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS E AND SE OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS. HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DOWN DRYLINE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN NM ATTM...SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED RELATIVELY HIGH BASES. ...MID WEST INCLUDING OH VALLEY... THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONGOING ACTIVITY AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE STORMS CAN FOCUS EITHER ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR VICINITY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. ...CAROLINAS... BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO SC WILL BE NRN LIMIT OF ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. S OF FRONT SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND COLD FRONTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 19:51:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 14:51:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406121951.i5CJp1231783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121948 SWODY1 SPC AC 121945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OLU 40 NE OMA 35 SW DSM 40 SW IRK 10 ESE SZL 35 E TUL 40 ENE ABI 65 NNW ABI 25 NW LTS P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE 30 NW MKT 30 W EAU 15 SSE CWA MKE 10 SE SBN 30 N DAY 10 NNW HTS 20 WNW HKY 15 SSW AND 35 WNW RMG 30 WNW MSL 20 NW MEM 45 N LIT FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS 30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA ...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN 20 NNE DVL RRT ...CONT... 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW 25 NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM ...CONT... 25 S CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NE AND SWRN IA SWD THRU CENTRAL/ERN KS...NWRN MO...NRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO NWRN TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN ND SWD THROUGH CO. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWD/SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 13/06Z. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL KS BETWEEN HLC AND RSL...WITH A MESOLOW EVIDENT AROUND LNK ASSOCIATED WITH 4.9 MB/3 HOURS PRESSURE FALL. ALSO...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS E-W FROM CENTRAL AND WRN KY WSWWD ACROSS NRN AR. ...KS/NE INTO OK/TX AND PARTS OF MO... MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. PRESSURE FALLS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY CNK-OMA-OFK-GRI-CNK AND SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKING ACROSS ERN KS DEVELOPING INFLOW TOWARDS THE LOW NW OF RSL. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING RAISING SBCAPE TO BETWEEN 4500-5500 J/KG /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG/. 18Z RAOB DATA SHOWS CAPE JUST UNDER 4500 J/KG AT TOP WITH A MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 9C/KM. WHILE SHEAR HAS YET TO RESPOND TO APPROACHING TROUGH...RUC MODEL FORECASTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT BY 13/00Z FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SW-NE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE LARGE CAPE/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. DRYLINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BETWEEN HLC/RSL THROUGH GAG AND LBB INTO MAF. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES UVVS BY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...OH/TN VALLEY INTO SC... ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG/JUST S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IS VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S GIVING MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ADJUSTED SLGT RISK SWD TO THE TN SRN BORDER WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MADE IT SWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NWRN SC. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 01:29:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 20:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406130129.i5D1TB212065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130126 SWODY1 SPC AC 130124 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SLN 25 SSW CNK 25 SSW FNB 15 SSE STJ 15 ESE MKC 30 ESE CNU 30 SW TUL 35 NNE OKC 15 NNW END 40 ESE P28 HUT 25 WSW SLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 40 SE LBB 35 SW P28 30 SSE RSL 45 ENE HLC 25 S HSI 20 SSE LNK 40 SSW FOD 25 NNE MKT 55 NNE EAU 30 ENE AUW 30 W MKE 25 WSW BEH 40 W FWA 20 N IND 50 SSE MTO 35 SSE MVN 45 S PAH 30 SW MKL 50 N GLH 40 WNW HOT 20 NNW DAL 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 ENE LBB 35 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 50 SW COS 25 E MTJ 50 SW CAG 30 SW RWL 45 SSE DGW 45 NNW PHP 45 WNW JMS 45 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 25 NW HLG 30 W EKN 15 W DAN 10 SW SOP 15 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN OK THROUGH ERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN IA SWWD THROUGH NERN KS TO A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL KS. DRYLINE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW THROUGH W CNTRL KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO W TX. ANOTHER LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN AR NWWD THROUGH NWRN MO WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM W TX THROUGH OK AND ERN KS. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE WITH MCS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NERN KS/NW MO AND WITH CLUSTER OVER W TX JUST NW OF ABILENE. IN BETWEEN...ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMAINDER OF DRYLINE...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OVER SERN KS. THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS NERN KS/NW MO HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD SUPPORTED BY MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW ALONG INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. BEST TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE WITH ISOLATED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN KS AND ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS IN THIS AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK. THE EVENING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN DID SHOW PRESENCE OF A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 2 KM...AND LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER CAP. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO W TX. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS OK...OR NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN NW TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM ERN KS...WRN MO WITH SOME BACKBUILDING LIKELY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN MO IS CONDITIONAL UPON RECOVERY OF THE AIR THAT HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT SOME EWD RECOVERY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...SC AND ERN GA... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SW OF BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS SC INTO PARTS OF GA. COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 06:24:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 01:24:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406130623.i5D6Nt215128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130621 SWODY1 SPC AC 130619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW SLN 35 ENE OTM 25 NNE UIN 40 E COU 15 W PNC 20 ENE P28 15 SW SLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ERI PIT 15 SW UNI 25 NE EVV 30 S SGF 10 SW OKC 15 NE GAG 35 SW RSL 30 N CNK 55 WSW FOD 35 N RST 15 SSW IWD 125 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE MRF 30 NE HLC BUB 30 NNE ANW 40 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 20 WNW WRL 20 ENE BTM 40 S FCA 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 30 ENE EFK 15 WNW ILG 15 WSW RIC 20 S OAJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN KS THROUGH NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL COMPLICATE SURFACE PATTERN AND ENHANCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FORECAST. A RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE IA THROUGH ERN MO AND SWWD INTO SRN KS. THE WRN PART OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STILL MOVING SWD...BUT MAY STALL ACROSS SRN KS OR NRN OK THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD WWD SUPPORTED BY SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS. RECOVERY NWD INTO KS AND MO MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HOW MUCH NWD RECOVERY OCCURS WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH ONGOING CONVECTION PROGRESSES. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FARTHER NORTH INTO KS/MO AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO...WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH SRN KS...MO AND PARTS OF OK DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES STORMS RELATIVE INFLOW. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV CURRENTLY OVER IA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF IND...OH AND MI. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SHOULD INTENSIFY AS DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 12:35:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 07:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406131235.i5DCZJ217917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131232 SWODY1 SPC AC 131231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SLN FNB 30 SSE BRL 35 WSW SPI 40 ENE COU COU SZL 25 N JLN 20 SW JLN BVO PNC P28 25 WNW SLN. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E DTW 20 SSW JXN BEH 15 NNW MKG HTL 10 NE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 10 ENE BFD 10 NE ZZV BMG UNO ARG JBR MEM GLH ELD PRX OKC GAG RSL LNK 40 WSW LNR CWA 35 W IMT 15 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE MRF 30 NE HLC BUB 30 NNE ANW 40 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 20 WNW WRL 20 ENE BTM 40 S FCA 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 30 ENE EFK 15 WNW ILG 15 WSW RIC 20 S OAJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS AND CENTRAL PLAINS.... LONG BELT OF STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. JET CONTINUES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AROUND BROAD UPPER RIDGE INTO REAR OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS SUGGEST EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL GRADUALLY NOSE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERN PORTION OF PLAINS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/QUEBEC. SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS CUT-OFF OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES... EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. DEEP LAYER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TROPICAL CIRCULATION APPROACHING CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP/LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 18Z. SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. BELT OF 30 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN BASE OF BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS CONVECTION INITIATES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR QUITE LIKELY...AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE WAVE ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE MODERATE IN STRENGTH...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY NORTH NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS INTO THE SAGINAW AREA DURING THE 13/21Z-14/00Z TIME FRAME. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSIDERABLE SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB BACK THROUGH THE 60S AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS PRIOR RUNS...LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. DESPITE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF OVERNIGHT MCS...THIS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 14/00Z...WHEN EXIT REGION OF 90-110 KT HIGH-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI...CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE PROVIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON NOSE OF 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...SHEAR BENEATH WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME QUITE INTENSE/LONG-LIVED. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...IS LIKELY PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS ACTIVITY SPREADS SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD...SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES OVERNIGHT. ...EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DEW POINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S... CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE HEATING. GIVEN RATHER WEAK CAPPING...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CIRCULATION APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND DOWNBURSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 15:48:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 10:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406131548.i5DFmS213209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131545 SWODY1 SPC AC 131543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 30 S JXN 20 ENE SBN 25 NNE MKG 20 N HTL 15 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 10 ENE BFD 30 ENE PKB 30 NNE CRW 35 SSW CRW 35 ESE TRI 65 S TYS GLH ELD PRX 25 SSW FSI GAG 30 N GRI 25 ENE PHP 25 SW MBG 30 ENE MSP 45 SW ESC 20 W ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 20 SSE LBB 25 WSW LBL 20 SE HLC BBW 15 SW ANW 15 SSW RAP 30 SE BTM 15 SE PUW 30 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB 30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL U.S. WEST OF APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH THIS AM FROM UPR MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS WILL SPLIT AS STRONG BAND OF WLYS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE NRN PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ROTATE ENEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE SRN PLAINS PORTION IS SHUNTED SWD THRU TX TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW TX COAST 12Z MON. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS MOVED FURTHER S THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH BOUNDARY SWD TO RED RIVER AND NRN AR. THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE PREVIOUS MDT RISK AREA CENTRAL PLAINS. ...LOWER MI... WILL CONTINUE THE MDT RISK LWR MI AS 12Z ETA RUN STILL BRINGS A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO 30 KT AND THE UPWARD MOTION WITH THE S/WV TROUGH...KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OH VALLEY IS MOVING NWD WITH MDT/STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS MLCAPES RISE TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL U.S. FROM APPALACHIANS WWD TO PLAINS... REF MCD 1241 WITH UNSTABLE AIR STILL AVAILABLE EWD TO APPALACHIANS AND 30 KT OF SHEAR SWD TO TN VALLEY...AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA FROM MID MS VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH MLCAPES LOCALLY TO 3000 J/KG AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES. RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS WILL TAKE MUCH OF DAY IN CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MDT SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SRN PLAINS. SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION...THUS A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT IS THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS FROM NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ETA INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS SRN MN/IA FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OVERNIGHT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 20:03:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 15:03:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406132003.i5DK37204882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132000 SWODY1 SPC AC 131958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 30 S JXN 20 ENE SBN 25 NNE MKG 20 N HTL 15 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ART 20 ENE CRW 45 NW AND 10 W BHM 10 SE TYR 30 E DAL 30 E DUA ARG 15 WSW STL 40 NNE SZL ICT 15 NE CSM 50 SW SPS 60 ESE LBB 30 NNE PVW 45 NW GCK 30 SW HSI 10 ESE BUB 45 WSW 9V9 45 E MBG 10 SE DLH ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW OKC 25 ENE FSI 10 SE ADM 15 WNW PGO 30 W ARG 55 NW POF 15 E VIH 25 ESE SZL 10 N CNU 30 WNW PNC 35 WNW OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB 30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 50 SW INK 45 N HOB 25 N CAO BBW 15 SW ANW 15 SSW RAP 25 SW S80 35 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S.... ...WRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS MI... THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES...PRIMARILY ACROSS LOWER MI...THOUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA WAS NOW LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI...AHEAD OF LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOW SPREADING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT-FEATURE. SECOND FALL CENTER IS OVER CENTRAL IND...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN IND. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WI. WITH AXIS OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE INSTABILITY NOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF LOWER MI...ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER LAKE MI/WRN LOWER MI/IND DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SWLY LLJ WILL BE OVERRIDDEN BY 50 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER MI...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM AND CONCURRENT POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WI AND THE U.P. OF MI THIS EVENING. ...TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS SWWD INTO ARKLATEX... SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVED NEAR A COUPLE OF NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS ACROSS AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. FARTHER SW ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM NERN TX INTO SERN AR/NRN MS...WHERE MLCAPES ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN POINTS FARTHER NORTH...AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK UPPER LOW NOW SHIFTING SEWD INTO NERN TX/AR. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY SUPPORT SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... EFFECTS OF INTENSE MESO-HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...WHERE FURTHER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW MOVING SEWD INTO NERN TX/AR WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH /IF ANY/ THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. MORE LIKELY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ...A FEW OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG EDGE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INVOF DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX/NWRN OK/WRN KS. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER...AS CAP AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE INTO NRN MO/SRN IA/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER THESE AREAS. ...SD INTO THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING SPREADING EWD OUT OF SD ALONG NOSE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD THE THREATS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TOWARDS THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN APPALACHIANS... STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM SERN GA INTO CENTRAL AL. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...AND SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..EVANS.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 00:34:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 19:34:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406140034.i5E0Y2217482@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140032 SWODY1 SPC AC 140030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ART 35 WNW IPT 45 NW AND 20 W TCL 30 NNW GLH 40 NE HRO 35 ENE SZL 30 WNW TOP 30 SW HSI 15 WSW BUB 45 WSW 9V9 45 E MBG 10 SE DLH ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW OKC 25 ENE FSI 10 SE ADM 20 WNW PGO 30 W FYV 20 SSE CNU 15 N PNC 35 WNW OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 50 SW INK 45 N HOB 25 N CAO 50 NNW IML 50 ENE AIA 15 SSW RAP 25 SW S80 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB 30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY... STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI SWD INTO ERN IND/OH. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WI/UP OF MI IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO WRN PARTS OF NY/PA TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG AXIS OF MID-LEVEL WINDS /I.E. 45-55KTS AT 500MB/ COUPLED WITH INCREASING COLD POOL PRODUCTION WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...CURRENT REGIONAL VWPS AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INDICATE VEERING WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...YIELDING 100-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST BOTH AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINES AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES THEMSELVES. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT OVERNIGHT...FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXPANDING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...TN VALLEY... AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED OVER MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOCAL VWPS INDICATE WEAKER WIND PROFILES THAN POINTS TO THE N...A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND STABILIZE. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS PER RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS. THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL/CNTRL SD. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...NOCTURNAL BRANCH OF LLJ IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM N-CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL IA. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG LLJ AXIS COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS FROM ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN SWD INTO FAR ERN NEB AND IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 05:47:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 00:47:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406140546.i5E5km217475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140544 SWODY1 SPC AC 140542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 10 WSW RIC 30 SSE OWB 30 E BVO 30 SSW EHA 35 NNW LHX 10 ESE FCL 25 W BFF 20 SSE PIR 20 S EAU 20 ENE PLN ...CONT... 10 WNW EFK 20 WSW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 30 WSW GSB 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 20 ENE RRT 30 N HIB 40 WNW IWD 30 SE MQT 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 100 SSE MRF 40 NNW PVW 35 SW RTN 50 SSW ALS 35 WNW U17 40 NNE DRA 15 N NID 30 ENE FAT 30 SSE TVL 40 ESE NFL 10 ESE SLC 30 SW RKS RWL 35 SSW DGW 60 NE DGW 45 SE 81V 50 SSE GDV 15 NE GTF 35 SSW FCA 50 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THIS AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AND BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO CNTRL KS. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... QUASI-LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM WRN NY/PA SWWD INTO ERN OH WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF PA/NY. SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER SHELF WATERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...FORCING FOR ASCENT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC COUPLED WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING MCS. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL BE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... A SMALL MCS OR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER IA/MN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OBSERVED FROM CNTRL IA ENEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI MAY FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND/OR COMMA HEAD STRUCTURES. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD OVER CNTRL KS TODAY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HERE... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND 30-35KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME FROM CNTRL/NRN NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...CNTRL GULF COAST... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REACHING SRN LA LATER THIS MORNING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 12:59:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 07:59:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406141259.i5ECx2227951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141256 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW EFK 20 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 ESE SBY 15 S CHO 10 ESE EKN 15 SE JKL 25 WSW JLN 45 WNW END 30 NNW LHX 35 SW DEN 15 N CYS 10 SSW AIA 35 SE LBF 30 W BIE 20 SE EAU 25 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 30 N HIB 40 WNW IWD 30 SE MQT 20 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE MRF 20 NE AMA 25 ENE DHT 30 SSW CAO 35 NNW LVS 10 WSW 4BL 30 NNW SGU 40 ESE NID 30 ENE FAT 30 N FAT 30 E SAC 45 WNW RNO 10 WSW RNO 50 NNE BIH 50 NNE U24 35 E VEL 45 SSE RWL 35 N LAR 60 NE DGW 45 SE 81V 30 SSE 4BQ 50 ESE BIL 20 E GTF 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ORF 10 S GSB CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST / RELATIVELY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PERIOD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. MOST OBVIOUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS BROAD WLY FLOW REGIME IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ATTM -- AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF STRONG / SEVERE STORM CLUSTER NOW OVER SRN IA / NRN MO / NWRN IL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO UPPER MI...WHILE WEAKER / SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS INDICATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WITH TIME...CENTRAL U.S. BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ONGOING STORM CLUSTER MOVING INTO WRN IL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND INTENSIFY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONGEST WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE OH VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI INTO THE NRN HALF OF OH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER 30 TO 50 KT WLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL AS IA / IL STORM CLUSTER MOVES EWD AND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS / SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD CONTINUATION OF IA / IL STORM CLUSTER -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN PA / WRN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THREAT MAY PERSIST AS FAR EWD AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MO / KS... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO ERN KS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO / IA -- AND EVENTUALLY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT -- MOVES SWD. AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF STORMS / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMMENCES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS -- THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS WRN KS / ERN CO TODAY...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN CO -- AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SEWD INTO WRN KS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND INSTABILITY LIMITED...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO HAIL. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE AFTER DARK GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD / NWWD INTO SRN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST / LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS OVER THIS REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST LITTLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. NONETHELESS...LOW LCLS AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A VERY LOW-END THREAT FOR A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO WITHIN ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:00:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:00:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406142000.i5EK0G222142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141957 SWODY1 SPC AC 141955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MSS UCA 10 NW BGM 40 NNE PSB 25 NNW PIT 20 SW MFD 25 SSW FDY 30 E FWA 25 SW FNT 65 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BML BAF 20 ENE ABE 40 SSW AOO 20 N LEX 25 WSW JLN 45 WNW END LAA 35 WNW AKO 10 S AIA 35 W MHN 15 ENE EAR 20 WNW FNB 10 WNW PIA 15 WSW CGX 35 W MKG 65 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS LAR 35 N BFF 25 ENE RAP 40 N REJ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY 20 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 40 SW TVL 25 WNW TVL 35 E TVL 35 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 45 NW NID 40 NE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MMO 25 NNW MKE 35 NE LSE 40 NNW MKT 25 E BKX 15 ESE YKN 10 NNE OMA 20 N BRL 30 NNW MMO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI/NRN OH INTO WRN NY/NWRN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...LOWER MI/OH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 45-50 KT INTO SWRN ONTARIO AND ACROSS NRN OH THROUGH 23Z. STRONG INSTABILITY DUE TO AMPLE HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SERN LOWER MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/WRN NY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THOUGH SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS /I.E. > 65KT/ AS OF 20Z... WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WARRANTS MAINTENENCE OF MDT RISK ATTM. AS HEATING ABATES AFTER 02Z...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER... STRONG COLD POOL AND SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL INTO CENTRAL/NERN PA AND TOWARDS WRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. NEARER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY INCREASE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING. AIR MASS IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR EVIDENT ON ILN/S 18Z SOUNDING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SRN IL WWD INTO KS... WHERE MLCAPES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER SERN KS/WRN MO. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES DRAPED IN A E-W FASHION ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN MODEST...SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE MID EVENING GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO LARGE SCALE WNWLY FLOW...STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO SRN IL SHOULD ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO WITH HIGH BASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AFTER DARK ALONG 40+ KT SLY LLJ AXIS. MCS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NRN KS/NEB. ...NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR VORT CENTER MOVING INTO WRN ND. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1269./ AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...ETA AND GFS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION/MCS MAY FORM INTO ERN SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED... MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SERN INTO COASTAL BEND REGION OF TX... RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS/MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..EVANS.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:42:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:42:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150042.i5F0gD222919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 10 E LEX 15 NNE TUL 10 NNW GAG 30 SW LHX COS 35 ENE CYS 35 W MHN 20 NNE EAR 45 SE OMA 25 NW PIA 30 ESE SBN 30 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 20 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY 20 NE CRE ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS 40 NNW LAR 40 ESE DGW 45 SSE 81V 40 ENE 4BQ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 15 S TVL 20 W NFL 30 NE ELY 50 NW MLF 20 E DRA 25 NNW NID 40 NE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MLI 20 SSW MSN 20 ENE LSE 30 ENE MKT 25 NNE OTG 35 NNE SUX 60 ENE OMA 30 SW CID 30 N MLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN STATES AND DELMARVA REGION... ...NERN STATES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER WRN PARTS OF NY/PA MOVING EWD AT 40-50KTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 00Z BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SW OF SYR AND NW OF UCA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN PA...WV...MD INTO DE AND SRN NJ. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON SRN PERIPHERY OS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING 30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS ENEWD INTO NERN MO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY S OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE E...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DENVER SOUNDING. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF ELY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BENEATH 500MB WINDS OF 30-40KTS IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...DAKOTAS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT ATTM...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL ND. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING...AND FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND /OR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:42:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:42:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150042.i5F0gx223282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 10 E LEX 15 NNE TUL 10 NNW GAG 30 SW LHX COS 35 ENE CYS 35 W MHN 20 NNE EAR 45 SE OMA 25 NW PIA 30 ESE SBN 30 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 20 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY 20 NE CRE ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS 40 NNW LAR 40 ESE DGW 45 SSE 81V 40 ENE 4BQ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 15 S TVL 20 W NFL 30 NE ELY 50 NW MLF 20 E DRA 25 NNW NID 40 NE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MLI 20 SSW MSN 20 ENE LSE 30 ENE MKT 25 NNE OTG 35 NNE SUX 60 ENE OMA 30 SW CID 30 N MLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN STATES AND DELMARVA REGION... ...NERN STATES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER WRN PARTS OF NY/PA MOVING EWD AT 40-50KTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 00Z BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SW OF SYR AND NW OF UCA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN PA...WV...MD INTO DE AND SRN NJ. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON SRN PERIPHERY OS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING 30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS ENEWD INTO NERN MO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY S OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE E...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DENVER SOUNDING. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF ELY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BENEATH 500MB WINDS OF 30-40KTS IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...DAKOTAS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT ATTM...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL ND. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING...AND FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND /OR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 06:07:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 01:07:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150607.i5F67X223719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150605 SWODY1 SPC AC 150603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ANJ 15 SW BLV 45 SSE DDC 10 WNW LBL 30 NNE TAD 25 NE DEN 25 NE MHN ATY 20 NNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 45 N SHD 25 NW PKB CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG SAF GCN LAS 25 SSW BFL 25 SSW MER 10 SW TVL 10 WSW WMC ENV 40 SE EVW 25 ESE RWL 30 N DGW 25 NNW PHP 35 E Y22 40 N DIK 35 WSW GDV 35 SE 3TH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 20 E SBN CLE 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MT/ WILL RAPIDLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER WRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...AND WHAT POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON THE INFLOW AIRMASS AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB/IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA. EVOLVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN NEB. SYSTEM HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COMPLEX WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL MO...LIKELY OVERTURNING UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. THIS COMPLEX MAY WELL CONTINUE EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONT INTO NRN/CNTRL MO LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY INITIALLY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MT. INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OR DEVELOPING ON IT/S RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND POINTS TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WW INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AIRMASS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON /LARGELY AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 15/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD OF SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 07:25:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:25:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150725.i5F7P2225764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150723 SWODY1 SPC AC 150720 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ANJ 15 SW BLV 45 SSE DDC 10 WNW LBL 30 NNE TAD 25 NE DEN 25 NE MHN ATY 20 NNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 45 N SHD 25 NW PKB CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG SAF GCN LAS 25 SSW BFL 25 SSW MER 10 SW TVL 10 WSW WMC ENV 40 SE EVW 25 ESE RWL 30 N DGW 25 NNW PHP 35 E Y22 40 N DIK 35 WSW GDV 35 SE 3TH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 20 E SBN CLE 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MT/ WILL RAPIDLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER WRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...AND WHAT POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON THE INFLOW AIRMASS AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB/IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA. EVOLVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN NEB. SYSTEM HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COMPLEX WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL MO...LIKELY OVERTURNING UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. THIS COMPLEX MAY WELL CONTINUE EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONT INTO NRN/CNTRL MO LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY INITIALLY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MT. INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OR DEVELOPING ON IT/S RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND POINTS TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WW INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AIRMASS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON /LARGELY AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 15/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD OF SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 13:01:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 08:01:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406151300.i5FD0r208597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151258 SWODY1 SPC AC 151256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE BRD 25 E MSP 20 NNE MCW 40 ESE FOD 20 SW LWD 10 NNE TOP 10 SSW P28 10 WNW LBL 45 WNW TAD 25 W DEN 40 NNW CYS 40 SE PHP 55 SW ABR 30 E FAR 50 ESE BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 20 N CHO 20 WNW UNI CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 25 SSW AZO CLE 10 SSW UCA 30 ENE EFK ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG 10 WSW SAF GCN LAS 25 ENE EDW 45 NNE MER 10 SW TVL 50 W TPH 45 N ELY 25 E SLC 25 SE VEL 25 N CAG 30 NNE RWL 50 ESE WRL 30 SE 81V 45 ESE REJ 15 E DIK 25 W ISN 30 SW GTF 20 SSW S06 25 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OH EWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BELT OF WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD..WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE WITH TIME FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC MOVES EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SECOND TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM WRN CANADA / THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WRN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS QUEBEC / SRN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHILE FURTHER SWWD THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WRN FRINGE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...ACTUAL RETURNING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION WILL BE CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED AS A RESULT OF ONGOING KS / NRN MO CONVECTION. QUALITY OF THIS RETURNING AIRMASS WILL MODULATE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS KS...THOUGH LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF KS / ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NRN MO. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS NEAR LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...RETURNING MUCH OF AIRMASS RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN SD AND MN. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD AHEAD OF FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER SWWD WRN NEB / ERN CO / WRN KS...PERSISTENT SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD ADVECT MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS / UNSTABLE AIRMASS NWWD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS / WRN AND CENTRAL NEB. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN CO / WRN KS...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO ALLOW MULTICELL OR WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD MORE CLEARLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS NEB / WRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO EXPAND NWWD INTO SERN WY WHERE MORE ENELY LOW-LEVEL JET AND THUS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD EVOLVE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE MCSS TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ...SERN OH EWD ALONG THE MASON / DIXON LINE INTO THE DELMARVA... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD AND BECOME INDISTINCT...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON BY SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH UPPER 60S / LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION S OF FRONT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...LARGE-SCALE / MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LACKING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED UPPER JET AXIS -- BOTH NEGATIVES IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS / A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MODERATE / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE DOES EXIST. EXPECT THOUGH THAT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...LA / ERN TX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION / INVOF UPPER LOW OVER THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..GOSS.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 16:14:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 11:14:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406151614.i5FGET213729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151610 SWODY1 SPC AC 151608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 10 WSW SHD 30 NW HTS 20 ENE MFD 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE BRD 25 E MSP 20 NNE MCW 40 ESE FOD 20 SW LWD 10 NNE TOP 10 SSW P28 10 WNW LBL 45 WNW TAD 25 W DEN 40 NNW CYS 40 SE PHP 55 SW ABR 30 E FAR 50 ESE BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MOB 20 NE LUL 35 ENE GWO 20 WNW CBM 50 S MSL 15 SW GAD 25 N AUO 25 E MAI 15 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS ...CONT... 125 NNW ANJ 20 N MBL 20 W AZO 20 S DTW ...CONT... 25 SSE LBB 75 NE P07 30 SSW SJT 45 E SJT 20 ESE ABI 45 SW SPS 20 NE CSM 35 SE GAG 50 SW GAG 30 ESE AMA 25 SSE LBB ...CONT... 70 S MRF 45 W FST 45 NNE ROW 50 SE LVS 25 ESE LVS 35 N SAF 40 W FMN GCN 60 N IGM 20 S LAS 35 ENE DAG 30 SE BFL 60 ESE FAT 35 SW BIH 50 WNW BIH 35 SSE TVL 45 ESE TVL 75 S NFL 55 SW U31 10 NNW U31 40 E EKO 25 S EVW 45 NNW CAG 40 S GCC 30 NNW Y22 40 NW JMS 35 E DVL 50 NNW DVL 30 N P24 65 NW 27U 15 ENE LWS GEG 40 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AL AND ERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND PA... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG WLYS CONFINED TO THE NRN U.S. WITH ONE VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER MT SHEARS EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS. THE CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW VICINITY UPR TX COAST PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE THE OVERNIGHT MCS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED LOW LEVELS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SWD INTO NRN AR WWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT DAKOTAS SWWD INTO WY WILL PUSH E/SE AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ROTATING NWD THRU CENTRAL MS ON E SIDE OF UPPER LOW TX WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR OVER ERN MS AND AL. IN THE NERN U.S. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH 60F DEWPOINTS INTO ERN CO COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS FURTHER N ACROSS NRN NEB/ERN SD WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20KT MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER N THERE WILL BE 30-40KT OF SHEAR ACROSS SD INTO MN ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE SLY FLOW E OF MS CYCLONIC CENTER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN AL. ...NERN U.S... DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA TO S OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG..PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. RISK WILL BE FROM DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THREAT EXPECTED TO END SOON AFTER DARK. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 19:51:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 14:51:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406151951.i5FJpN225306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151947 SWODY1 SPC AC 151945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 10 WSW SHD 25 SSE BMG 40 W FWA 25 NE MFD 30 W ELM 40 NNW MSV BDL 15 NNW BID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE STC 25 E MSP MCW 50 WSW DSM 20 NW FNB 30 WNW SLN 15 SW GAG 25 SW AMA 35 NW TCC 45 WNW TAD 10 WNW DEN 25 SW BFF 30 WSW VTN 55 SW ABR 45 SSE FAR 30 NNE STC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 40 E LUL 25 SSE CBM 25 SSW MSL 15 NE HSV 20 WNW RMG 10 WSW CSG 15 ENE MAI 15 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10 NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW IGM 35 ENE DAG 30 SE BFL 45 ESE FAT 60 SE TVL NFL 15 S BAM 40 E EKO 20 SW RWL 30 ENE CPR 10 SSE 81V 45 N PHP 60 ESE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 50 WNW 3HT 40 E S80 45 WSW S06 35 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC 40 S MTW 25 NW BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LBB 55 SSE MAF 25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD 20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 25 NE CSM 35 WNW CDS 10 ESE LBB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM SWRN MN TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AL... ...PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS RESPONDED TO THIS FEATURE WITH AN ESELY COMPONENT. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN CO WHERE LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED. IT APPEARS A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME...STORM MERGERS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD THE LLJ WHICH WILL FOCUS OVER WRN KS AFTER DARK. FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NCNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SD WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION. SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE EARLY STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY OVER SD BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO A MORE LINEAR FASHION ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM CYCLE. ...OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... A NARROW ZONE OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED QUALITY AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IND...EWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN PA. THIS ZONE IS BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ALONG NRN EDGE OF MORE TROPICAL INFLUENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS OVER IL HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL IND WHERE IT CURRENTLY IMPINGES ON E-W ZONE OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BEFORE OVERTURNING REDUCES INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING/DEVELOPING NNEWD ACROSS AL/GA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN TX. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS MAY ROTATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...CENTRAL TX... SWWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION IS APPROACHING CENTRAL TX ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. WITH NLY COMPONENT ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING. ..DARROW.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 00:40:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 19:40:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406160039.i5G0dm228999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160036 SWODY1 SPC AC 160034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DLH 20 SE MSP 20 S MCW 20 NNE SLN 40 SW GAG 25 SSE LBB 50 NNW HOB 20 SW LHX 25 E DEN SNY 10 SW ANW 30 N AXN 40 NNE BRD 55 SSW DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS ...CONT... 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC 40 S MTW 25 NW BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 50 NNE BGS 55 SSE MAF 25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD 20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 15 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 50 NNE BGS ...CONT... 80 SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10 NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW IGM 35 S DAG 35 WSW NID 20 NNE FAT 25 S TVL NFL 40 SSE BAM 35 SW ENV 40 N CAG 30 SSW CDR 50 NNW ABR 90 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ISN 55 E LWT 60 E S80 15 SW S06 90 WNW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA...WITH PRIMARY REGION OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND INTO NERN CO. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MN INTO NERN SD...STRONGER INSOLATION AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SWD EXTENT HAVE ALLOWED MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SERN SD...TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS ACROSS ERN CO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN PROGRESS ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINES OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB. LOCAL PROFILERS FROM MCCOOK NEB AND GRENADA CO INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 25-30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPANDING COLD POOLS MAY PROMOTE UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY WRN KS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN SD INTO SRN MN...WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE. IF STORMS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING OVER ERN NM COUPLED WITH NWWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ACROSS WRN TX HAVE AIDED IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OK PNHDL SWD INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL/TX S PLAINS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS OF 25-35F AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY TRY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 05:38:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 00:38:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406160538.i5G5c9213692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160536 SWODY1 SPC AC 160534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MCK 35 SSE MKT 30 NNW VOK 20 SSW OSH 20 WNW RFD 15 NNW CNU 65 NNW CDS 45 E FST 35 W FST 35 SW CAO 30 SW PUB 20 SSE DEN 20 WNW MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 15 W CNM 25 NE ROW 45 NNW TCC 50 SSW ALS 55 E IGM 15 E PMD 15 NNW BFL 35 W BIH 55 ESE TVL 35 ESE LOL 10 W EKO 35 WNW MLD 40 SW MQM 15 ENE 27U 55 SW MSO 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 10 SSW GGW 30 NE BIL 15 NE COD 45 N CPR 45 NNE CDR 25 ESE 9V9 20 W RWF 35 E STC 30 S DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ART GFL 20 S PSM ...CONT... 60 NW MFE 35 NE JCT 20 WNW FTW 25 NE OKC 30 SW END 45 NNE CDS 45 SSW CDS 50 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL CANADA SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT PATTERN ACROSS SERN CANADA. SRN BRANCH TROUGH ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD/EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IA/CNTRL KS INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT OVER S-CNTRL/ERN KS POSSIBLY INTO NRN OK/NRN TX PNHDL. ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF KS AND NEB ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. DEGREE OF AIRMASS PROCESSING BY THIS CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF ERN CO/KS/NEB PORTION OF FRONT. 04Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL LOW PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO SWWD INTO SWRN KS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. BY AFTERNOON...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF ANY ONGOING STORMS. INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITHIN REGIONS OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STRENGTHENING BRANCH OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CO/KS/NEB FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK AND BACKED HIGH LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FARTHER N...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...SUGGESTING THE LIKLIHOOD OF MULTICELLULAR OR LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAINS RELATIVELY POOR...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS /PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD OUT OF SRN QUEBEC MAY ACT TO STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN NY WWD ACROSS PA INTO NRN OH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF FRONT. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL DURING PEAK HEATING. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 12:50:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 07:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406161250.i5GCob226683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161248 SWODY1 SPC AC 161246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GRB 15 NW MMO 50 SSE OJC 60 E AMA 40 ENE FST 35 W FST 40 NW CAO 60 WSW COS 20 SE 4FC 30 NNW MCK 40 N FOD RHI 10 N GRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MFE 35 NE JCT 20 WNW FTW 10 ESE OKC 45 NE CSM 45 WSW CSM 45 SSW CDS 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 15 W CNM 25 NE ROW 45 NNW TCC 50 SSW ALS 55 E IGM 15 E PMD 15 NNW BFL 35 W BIH 55 ESE TVL 35 ESE LOL 10 W EKO 35 WNW MLD 40 SW MQM 15 ENE 27U 55 SW MSO 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 75 N GFK 40 SE P24 45 ESE Y22 30 NNE 9V9 20 W RWF 35 E STC 30 S DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ART GFL 20 S PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BASICALLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS DOWNSTREAM BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN U.S. INTO SRN ONTARIO / QUEBEC. A SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED / MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARC CYCLONICALLY FROM NM NEWD ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW OVER NERN TX WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD / NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONGER BELT OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD -- AROUND THE NRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF PERSISTENT SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE NJ COAST...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...OH VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION...WHILE RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS NY. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG AND NEAR SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE -- AND IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY SUGGESTING ONLY WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE OK / TX PANHANDLES / SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THIS REGION...ELY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND N OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD VEER WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 30 TO 40 KT AT MID-LEVELS. RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. MORE ISOLATED MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX ALONG DRYLINE AS CAP ERODES LOCALLY ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A DIURNAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ...LOWER AND MID MS / OH VALLEYS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NWD INTO ERN OK INVOF WEAKENING UPPER LOW...AND THEN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ATTM...VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / S OF SURFACE FRONT. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE / INTENSITY. JUST AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW / TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...BELT OF MODERATE SLY / SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS. THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL HOWEVER...VERY LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...PA / SRN NY / NJ INTO THE DELMARVA... ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS S OF RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING / SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT POCKETS OF HEATING SHOULD NONETHELESS OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER / DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT SHOULD REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...WITH THREAT DECREASING AFTER DARK. ..GOSS.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 16:07:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 11:07:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406161607.i5GG75230307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161604 SWODY1 SPC AC 161602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LBL 35 W EHA 50 NNW CAO 35 NE TAD 20 ESE PUB 35 E COS 15 SSW LIC 25 WSW GLD 30 SSE GLD 15 NNW GCK 15 ESE LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GRB 15 NW MMO 50 SSE OJC 60 E AMA 40 ENE FST 35 W FST RTN 60 NNE ALS 20 SE 4FC 30 NNW MCK 40 N FOD RHI 10 N GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKL 35 SSW PAH 20 ESE MDH 15 WSW SLO 30 SW MTO 15 NNE MTO 25 E IND 20 NW LUK 20 SE LUK 35 E LEX 30 SW LOZ 40 SSE BNA 35 NE MKL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLU 45 WSW GLH 40 N GLH 55 SW MEM UOX 25 SSW TUP 45 SSW CBM 15 SW MEI 40 SSW LUL 30 SSE MCB 35 S HEZ 15 ENE ESF 20 NNE MLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 45 SW ROW 60 SW TCC 25 E LVS 35 WSW RTN 40 NE 4SL 35 SW FMN 60 NE INW 50 N SOW 10 ESE SOW 65 ENE PHX 55 ENE IGM 10 NW IGM 20 SE RAL 20 NE LAX 15 N SBA 40 NNE SBA 20 WSW BFL 50 N BFL 50 ENE MER 45 SSW TVL 15 NW TVL 30 S NFL 15 WSW U31 55 WSW ENV 10 WNW DPG 10 S OGD 25 NE MLD 35 NNW PIH 35 NNW SUN 60 SSE S80 30 SSW S80 10 W S80 45 NNE S80 20 SSW S06 55 NW S06 40 NE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ALB BDL 25 S GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 10 WNW MOT 20 NNE OLF 65 SW GGW 35 W BIL 30 NNW RIW 30 ESE RIW 30 W CPR 45 S 81V 35 N RAP 30 NW PIR 30 NE BKX 30 NE RWF 35 S DLH 35 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 30 N JCT 20 N MWL 40 ENE SPS 15 ENE FSI 50 W SPS 65 S CDS 40 NNW SJT 65 WSW SJT 30 N P07 25 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO AND SWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO IA /WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BAND OF WLYS REMAINS ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH S/WV TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS. IN SRN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY WHILE TROUGH OVER AZ LIFTS NEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES. A VERY MOIST SLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM GULF COAST TO OH VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S ALONG WITH MDT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE 25-30KT OF PREVAILING FLOW. ADDITIONALLY SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SERN CO AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL CO. FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD TODAY AS AIRMASS TO S OF FRONT IN WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WITH A BAND OF 30-40 KT 500 MB WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM AZ...COUPLED WITH CONTINUED 20-30KT LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS. WITH HEATING THE AIR MASS THIS AREA WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY 21Z ALONG WITH MINIMAL CIN. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM HIGHER TERRAIN EWD ACROSS MDT RISK AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE DISCUSSED AVAILABLE PARAMETERS. FURTHER NE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT SHEAR WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP WEAKENS VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ...OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS OVER TX LIFTS NEWD...A BAND OF 25-30 KT SSWLY WINDS FROM BOUNDARY LAYER TO 500MB IS IN PLACE FROM LWR MS VALLEY NEWD TO WRN OH VALLEY. WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY STL WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IN. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LOW LCLS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY SIMILAR SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS MS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS LA. ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY AS HEATING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. REF MCD 1300. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 20:20:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 15:20:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406162020.i5GKKh214493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162018 SWODY1 SPC AC 162016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LBL 35 W EHA 50 NNW CAO 35 NE TAD 20 ESE PUB 35 E COS 15 SSW LIC 25 WSW GLD 30 SSE GLD 15 NNW GCK 15 ESE LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GRB 15 NW MMO JEF 65 ENE AMA 25 SSE FST 20 NNW MRF 40 WNW RTN 4FC 40 ENE LIC LNK 25 SE FRM RHI 10 N GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OWB MDH BLV 20 N CMI 35 S FDY CMH 30 WNW UNI HTS LOZ 65 ENE BWG OWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW GWO 30 S MEM 45 NNE UOX TUP CBM MEI 40 SSW LUL 45 W GPT BTR 30 NNE LFT 15 NW GWO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT MOT OLF 65 SW GGW 35 W BIL COD RIW CPR 45 S 81V 35 N RAP MBG 35 NE ATY STC 35 S DLH 35 ENE CMX ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ALB BDL 25 S GON ...CONT... LRD DAL 50 ESE OKC OKC 50 W SPS 25 SSW P07 ...CONT... 40 SE ELP 45 SW ROW 55 NNW ROW 15 SE LVS 35 WSW RTN 55 SW ALS 60 NE INW 10 ESE SOW 65 ENE PHX 55 ENE IGM 10 NW IGM 55 NNE TRM EDW 15 N SBA 50 N BFL 50 ENE MER 45 SSW TVL TVL U31 55 WSW ENV 10 WNW DPG OGD 25 NE MLD 35 NNW PIH 35 NNW SUN 30 SSW S80 40 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO/SWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM TX PECOS VALLEY TO ERN CO/WRN KS PLAINS TO SRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN IL TO SWRN OH AND NERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MS AND PARTS OF SERN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL CANADA SWWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND NWRN STATES. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NEB/IA BORDER REGION SHOULD MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN WI AND LM BY END OF PERIOD...DEAMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT. PERSISTENT LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED AS WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION -- SHOULD DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY. ANOTHER SRN-STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG LOW LEVEL FRONT OVER NWRN NM. FRONT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN CO...NWRN KS AND SERN NEB TO LOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA. HIGH PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL OUTFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA...REMAINDER NEB...NERN MO AND NERN KS. ...S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SEVERE GUSTS AND TORNADOES -- IS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND OVER MDT RISK AREA. IN THIS REGION...UPSLOPE/BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND FRONTAL PROCESSES WILL COMBINE TO MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL SHEAR....DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...CONVERGENCE...AND AVAILABLE VORTICITY. REF WW 482 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR NOWCAST GUIDANCE OVER THIS REGION. 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW --EVIDENT IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ACROSS THIS REGION -- SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE INTO EVENING AS INITIAL TSTMS NOW OVER SERN CO AND RTN/TAD AREAS MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE UP TO NEAR 3500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. FCST HODOGRAPHS YIELD OVER 200 J/KG SRH JUST IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER...OVER MOST OF MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. FARTHER S...TSTMS INCREASING OVER NRN NM NEAR I-25 MAY INTENSIFY CONSIDERABLY...PARTICULARLY IF THIS ACTIVITY LASTS LONG ENOUGH FOR MOIST SECTOR E OF DRYLINE - ESTIMATED 50-80 NM FARTHER E -- TO BACK WWD INTO CONVECTIVE INFLOW. REF WW 484 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ONE OR TWO MCS OUGHT TO EVOLVE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL MOVE EWD OR ESEWD TOWARD PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL BEING PRODUCED. 35-45 KT SLY LLJ FCST OVER PANHANDLES TONIGHT SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...PERHAPS AS LATE AS 9Z. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING INVOF DRYLINE...SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGIONS... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING -- BOTH IN EVOLUTION FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NWRN IA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. REF WW 483 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS ABOVE SFC...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS IL/WI. THIS IS RELATED TO ISALLOBARIC BACKING OF FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW. PRECONVECTIVE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA BECAUSE OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NERN KS/MO. ...MS DELTA AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS... BELT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF ARKLATEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- AND E OF A LOW-MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER IL -- ALONG WITH VAST AREA OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OF TROPICAL ORIGINS. TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE ANYWHERE IN THIS BELT...BUT ARE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED INVOF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER MS AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER INDIANA/IL. WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET FARTHER S AND E OVER AL/TN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND EVENTS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 01:12:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 20:12:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406170112.i5H1Cb202039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170109 SWODY1 SPC AC 170107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CNM 20 WNW CVS 20 W EHA 40 SE LAA 25 N LHX 15 NNW LIC 15 E AKO 45 SW IML 30 NNE GLD 25 SW HLC 15 N RSL 30 NNW MHK 30 WSW STJ 15 WNW OJC 35 N CNU 15 NNW END 30 WSW CSM 45 E LBB MAF 25 SSE CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE VOK 40 NNW GRB 40 ENE GRB 15 ESE MKE 15 SW MMO 10 N MLI 10 SSE LNR 25 NNE VOK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW LAF 10 NNW TOL CLE 30 S CAK 25 NNE UNI 20 SW LUK 45 NW EVV MTO 30 NNW LAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 40 SW GGW 20 SE GTF 55 SSE FCA 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 25 SE HDO 55 NW VCT 20 SSE HOU 10 WSW LCH 10 S ESF 50 ENE ELD 20 ENE HOT 15 WNW FSM 55 E OKC 10 N SPS 35 SW ABI 45 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX GNV 40 W AGR 50 SSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 20 NNW MSV 15 SW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE ELP 30 E 4CR 50 W RTN 40 N ALS 25 SSW GUC 20 ENE CEZ 75 NW GUP 35 WNW FLG 40 SSW EED 20 N RAL 15 N BFL 40 NE MER 30 ESE TVL 35 SE NFL 45 NNE ELY 20 S SLC 55 E MLD 40 NNW JAC 45 E WEY 10 E COD 25 WSW CPR 45 NW BFF 25 NNW VTN 50 SSE 9V9 20 ENE SUX 20 N FOD 30 SSE MSP 35 S IWD 75 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN IL TO OH... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... HIGH PLAINS MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MATURE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ALONG/NORTH OF EXISTING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTH OF MHK TO NEAR DDC IN KS. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MVC MAY BE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST BOW-SHAPED CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS. WITH AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IT APPEARS THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLY LLJ THAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF BOW SHAPED FEATURE...OTHERWISE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH MUCH OF THE PLAINS ACTIVITY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS DOWNSTREAM...ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG SBCAPE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...WI/OH VALLEY... LONG-LIVED MCS STRUCTURE CONTINUES ITS ENEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN MN/NERN IA INTO WI. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEWD-EXTENDING WARM ADVECTION BANDS WELL AHEAD OF MAIN CLUSTER. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NON SEVERE AND MAY REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PAST HISTORY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CURRENT MODE OF THE CONVECTION...00Z PROFILES FROM GRB AND DVN SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. NUMEROUS DEEPENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN IL/IND. 00Z ILN SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH QUITE VEERED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT. GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROUGHLY 1.75 INCHES...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE WITHIN THIS EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. ..DARROW.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 06:03:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 01:03:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406170603.i5H638218345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170600 SWODY1 SPC AC 170559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ROW 40 W TCC 20 SSW COS 25 SSE DEN 25 S AKO 30 NE GLD 35 NNE RSL 20 ESE SLN 35 N PNC 20 W FSI 65 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50 WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 25 NNE SHD 20 N HGR 40 NNE CXY 10 NE ABE 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE FAR 40 W ABR 25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI 10 ESE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL 15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60 SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA REGION... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...AROUND ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE...INTO SERN CO AROUND PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CO...MAINTAINING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE DIURNAL SCENARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING MCS IS PROPAGATING STEADILY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGH PLAINS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE RATHER EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO/NRN NM THEN SPREAD EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...THEN STORM MERGERS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS AND EVENTUALLY AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANY MCS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS ARCING FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL LIFT NEWD AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING WHICH MAY AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED AS MODEST FLOW AT 500MB...ROUGHLY 25-30KT...SPREADS ACROSS WV INTO DELMARVA REGION. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO STEEPEN IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...SBCAPES MAY EXCEED 2500J/KG...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. ...NORTH DAKOTA... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A NARROW AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM...THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 12:48:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 07:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406171248.i5HCmd224423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171245 SWODY1 SPC AC 171242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50 WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 30 NNE PSB 40 NNW MSV 25 N BAF 20 E BOS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ROW 35 WNW PUB 10 WSW DEN 25 S AKO 35 NNE RSL 20 ESE SLN 35 N PNC 45 NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL 15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60 SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 15 SSW INL 30 SE BJI 30 SE ABR 25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI 10 ESE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN / NRN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN ELONGATING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS FROM WY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...CIRCULATION NOW OVER NV IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD...REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST...UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AR MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND NRN FRINGE UPPER RIDGE. ENHANCED BELT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF SRN LK MI...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SRN KS AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN PA. THIS LOW / FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY...WITH MOST DEFINED PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE TX OK PANHANDLE REGION. FINALLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA / SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO CENTRAL KS / WRN OK... SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED OVER SERN CO / SWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW OVER NV. AIRMASS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS NERN NM / SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK / KS. ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS PA / SRN NY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MS / NRN AR / TN / KY WITHIN WARM SECTOR...AS UPPER VORT MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SERN NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND SWD INTO VA INVOF LEE TROUGH WHERE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST. ...ND... MINIMAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ND / NWRN MN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:10:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:10:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406172011.i5HKBP204057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 172008 SWODY1 SPC AC 172006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ORF 40 SSE RIC 25 SSE LYH 25 SSE BLF 20 WNW TRI TYS 20 WSW TYS CSV 45 N JKL 35 WSW UNI 30 NE PIT 30 W ELM 10 NNW PSF 20 ENE BOS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ROW 25 SSE LVS 30 SSE ALS 40 E GUC 55 E ASE 30 SE 4FC 30 N LIC 15 W GLD 45 WSW HLC 25 WNW MHK 25 E MHK 35 SSW OJC 60 NNE JLN 20 W TBN 25 N UNO 20 E UNO 55 WSW ARG 10 N FSM 40 WNW FYV 15 NNE TUL 20 SW PNC 45 NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 ENE ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 45 NNW AYS AGR 15 N PBI ...CONT... 40 N BRO 20 S LRD ...CONT... 50 WSW COT 40 NNE CLL 30 WNW TYR 25 N FTW 10 WNW ABI 30 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 15 ESE ALM 35 NNE ALM 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ESE DRO 15 E FMN 35 N GUP 50 NNW INW 30 SSW GCN 30 NNW IGM 40 SSW LAS 60 SW DRA 65 SE BIH 20 N BIH 70 SSE TVL 30 WSW TVL 55 WNW TVL 30 ESE RBL 50 W RBL 25 NE 4BK 20 SE EUG 40 WSW RDM 65 NNE LMT 45 ESE 4LW 75 NW WMC 30 NNW WMC 20 WNW OWY 30 SW TWF 30 NNE ENV 40 W OGD 30 S MLD 20 SSE IDA 50 WNW IDA 35 WNW SUN 40 ESE BKE 35 WNW BKE 20 S PDT 20 NNW PDT 55 N ALW 15 SW GEG 35 E GEG 45 NNW MSO 20 NNW HLN 45 SE GTF 15 SE LWT 65 N SHR 50 ENE 4BQ 35 E P24 55 N DVL ...CONT... 25 NNW ELO 40 WSW DLH 30 SSW STC 25 NNW OTG 30 WSW MHE 65 E ANW 35 NW OFK 30 WSW OMA 55 NNE FNB OTM 15 ENE CID 35 NNW LSE 30 NE EAU 30 NNW AUW 50 NW TVC 40 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 15 SSW PBG 15 SSW MWN 30 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 4OM EAT 15 W YKM 35 SE OLM 15 NNE SEA 10 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ/SERN NY AND DELMARVA...CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...SERN NY/ERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY WAS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS PA. LOCALLY STRONG SR FLOW AND SHEAR...AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL... WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FROM NERN PA ACROSS SERN NY. IN ADDITION...40-45KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO CNTRL PA WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS NJ/NYC AREAS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WHERE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WAS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...CO/NM ESEWD ACROSS TX/OK PNHDLS... LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BACKED WELL WWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN/SCNTRL CO AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AND INTO NWRN OK. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA AND PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF HIGH SRH...LOW LFC AND ABUNDANT CAPE WAS SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM PUB TO LBL. LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS A BIT WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT...ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SUPPORT INTENSE AND POSSIBLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEE LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 00:47:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 19:47:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406180048.i5I0m7226313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180045 SWODY1 SPC AC 180043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W NHK 30 NW SHD 20 SE PKB ZZV CAK 15 E YNG 25 WNW AOO 35 ESE CXY 10 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HOB 40 N TCC 20 NE RTN 25 WSW PUB 20 WNW COS 35 SE DEN 35 NE LIC 10 E GLD 20 W RSL 25 ENE HUT 20 SE ICT 15 W OKC 50 SSW SPS 10 SW ABI 15 S BGS 30 NW HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 NNE AYS MGR 15 S PFN ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 40 W AUS 45 S TYR 40 NW ESF 40 SSE GLH 55 ENE PBF 35 ENE PGO 30 ENE DUA 15 NW SEP 35 NW JCT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 SW ELP 35 NW 4CR 30 ENE 4SL 35 ESE FMN 60 NW GUP 35 SSW GCN 40 NNW EED 45 ENE NID 45 SSW TVL 35 ESE RBL 60 SSW 4LW 60 NW WMC 40 WNW ENV 35 W SLC 30 ESE EVW 40 SSE CPR 25 SW VTN 25 ESE OFK 20 NNE STJ 10 SSE SZL 10 SSE VIH 25 WSW IND 40 WNW CLE 10 SSW BUF 10 SSE UCA 20 ENE PSF 15 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 30 W BRD 35 ESE ABR 40 SE MBG 20 ENE MBG 45 SE JMS 35 SSW TVF 35 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN CO...SEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TO THE SE OF LBB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COLD POOL SLOWLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. WITH TIME ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD EMERGE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS LLJ INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH REASONABLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATION. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE STORM MERGERS AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...IT APPEARS A SLOWLY EVOLVING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT MODE AS COLD POOL DRIVES CONVECTION EWD. ...OH TO DELMARVA... DEEP WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDED STRUCTURES FROM ERN OH...SEWD INTO THE DELMARVA. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO THRIVE ON MODERATE INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG...THAT HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT TO OVERALL ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN OH...ESEWD ACROSS WV INTO SRN MD BY 03Z. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES THAT CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES IN A SW-NE FASHION. ..DARROW.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 06:00:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 01:00:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406180601.i5I61Z209743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180559 SWODY1 SPC AC 180557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LIC 45 SSW GLD 35 ENE DDC 15 SSE ICT 10 SSW CNU 45 SSE SZL 35 S UIN 10 W DEC 25 NNE HUF 25 N SDF 35 E BWG 35 SSW BNA 40 S MKL 45 N TXK 40 SSE SPS 30 NE BGS 10 SE HOB 45 ENE ROW 45 NW TCC RTN 30 WSW PUB 35 SW LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 20 SW CLL 15 SE ACT 40 S SEP 40 N JCT 20 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 45 W GEG 30 N 3TH 25 SSW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 20 NNW LNK 30 S ALO 30 NNW MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN ELONGATED ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SRN U.S...AND MODEST WLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL BE THE GRADUAL SWD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/OK REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWD SHIFT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO INTO NERN NM...WITHIN A ZONE OF SUSTAINED ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IT'S NOT OBVIOUS BASED ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...OR 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXPECTED AREA OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC DEW POINTS FROM THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F AND CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000J/KG. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE EARLY CONVECTIVE MODE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BY EARLY-MID EVENING. EWD PROPAGATION INTO OK SHOULD OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITIONS INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH...TN VALLEY... ONGOING MCS FROM KS INTO CENTRAL OK IS PROPAGATING STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WELL AHEAD OF 00Z MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EASILY INTO WRN MO/NERN OK BY 12Z. WITH ROUGHLY 25-35KT OF WLY H5 FLOW ACROSS MO INTO NRN AR...REMNANTS OF THIS MCS SHOULD REGENERATE AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST LIKELY ZONE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SERN MO/SRN IL BY 18Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAP...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EWD PROPAGATION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/WRN TN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 12:54:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 07:54:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406181255.i5ICtM202744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181253 SWODY1 SPC AC 181251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N LHX 15 W GCK 30 ESE ICT 55 NNE JLN 45 S UIN 20 NNE MTO 55 E BMG 50 W LOZ 50 N HSV 40 NNE TXK 50 NE ABI MAF 30 NE CNM 30 W TAD 15 N LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 20 NNW LNK 30 S ALO 30 NNW MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 20 SW CLL 15 SE ACT 40 S SEP 40 N JCT 20 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND PART OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE FRONT ESTABLISHING ITSELF FARTHER S WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW MO SWWD THROUGH SWRN OK AND INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER PART OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 50S IN SE CO TO THE 60S IN ERN NM BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO BE OVER NM INTO PARTS OF W TX...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH NWD DISTANCE INTO CO DUE TO LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEING FROM THE LOWER THETA-E AIR OVER KS. NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SERN CO WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS WITH 30-35 KT ABOVE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME FROM NM NWD THROUGH CNTRL CO. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN NM/SE CO AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OR TWO DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH PART OF TN AND OH VALLEYS... THIS MORNING A LINEAR MCS ACCOMPANIED BY AN MCV EXTENDS ACROSS WRN MO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO ENEWD THROUGH SRN IL...SRN IND AND CNTRL/ERN OH. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IL AND WRN KY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID AND WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 16:38:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 11:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406181638.i5IGch213687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181636 SWODY1 SPC AC 181634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUB 20 NNW GCK 10 ESE ICT 55 NNE JLN 30 NE BMI 50 N LAF 25 SSW MIE 60 E BWG 60 SW BNA PBF 35 NW MWL MAF 30 NE CNM 40 E ALS PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 45 NNW VCT 10 SW AUS 35 E JCT 30 SW JCT 20 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 25 NW FNB 30 SE OTM 15 NE MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY... NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WERE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARY FRONT APPARENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND SWD INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK. TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NERN NM. AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN MO ...WITH YET ANOTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO ERN AR/SWRN TN. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND WEAKLY CAPPED. THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE SURFACE FEATURES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS MODEST...AREAS FROM SRN/ERN OK INTO AR WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT/ FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/LEE SLOPES OVER SERN CO AND ERN NM... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ONCE AGAIN INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/MCSS AND TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF OK OVERNIGHT. ...MID MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ARE LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS MO THIS MORNING. APPEARS HEATING WILL BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN IA/N-CENTRAL MO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN/ERN MO INTO PORTIONS OF IL/IND/KY. CONWAY PROFILER INDICATED 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE ETA. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AS THESE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...IN WHICH CASE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS... STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST 25-30 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TEMPORARILY FLATTENS RIDGING NOW IN PLACE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SEPARATE AREA EXPECTED ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. APPEARS LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODULATE ANY SEVERE THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MODEST SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIND DAMAGE OCCURRENCES IN STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... THIS AREA WILL UNDERGO QUITE A BIT OF HEATING TODAY...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE EVIDENT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER MODEST COOLING AT THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW SETTLING SLOWLY SEWD. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:17:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:17:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406182018.i5IKIV217409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182014 SWODY1 SPC AC 182012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MWL 50 WNW ABI 10 E MAF 25 ESE INK 20 SW FST 35 E MRF 20 SE MRF 20 W MRF 35 S GDP 25 NNW GDP 25 SE 4CR 25 S LVS 45 WSW RTN 15 ESE ALS 55 NNE ALS 15 ENE COS 35 N LHX 20 W GCK 35 SE DDC 10 SSE P28 30 WNW JLN 40 NNW SGF 30 WSW COU 25 W UIN 20 SSE PIA 10 WSW LAF 40 SSE MIE 35 NE SDF 20 SSE OWB 35 SSE PAH 35 N MEM 25 WNW ELD 45 WNW MWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB ...CONT... 10 NW BVE 25 NE BPT 25 WSW CLL 15 NNW AUS 55 E JCT 35 SSW JCT 20 NNW DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 25 NW FNB 30 SE OTM 15 NE MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SRN ROCKIES FRONT RANGE TO SRN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TX... ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON EXPECTED FROM SCNTRL/SERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN HALF NM...WEST TX...AND INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND NWRN TX WITH TIME. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW AND FRONTAL INTRUSIONS BACKING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE HAVE RESULTED IN A COMPOSITE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOST STRONGLY DEFINED IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD FROM SWRN OK WNWWD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF SCNTRL CO/NRN NM. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN DRIFT EAST INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED LIFT...MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM THE SERN TX PNHDL WNWWD INTO NERN NM. INITIAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH A HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MELD INTO AN MCS AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE MCS WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS ACROSS TX PNHDL AND INTO WRN OK. ...MO/IL SWWD TO OZARKS/RED RIVER... MCV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...POLAR FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND MAY ACTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING. AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW/MCV EWD TO THE OH VALLEY. LASTLY... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SERN MO...TO THE OZARKS...AND THEN TO THE RED RIVER. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITHIN WIDESPREAD VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STORMS ON THE RED RIVER AND OVER THE OZARKS IS WEAK AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SOME DOWNBURST WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE EWD EXTENDING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...ASCENT/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN IL AND THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST... A NUMBER OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS EXIST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN PIEDMONT SWWD TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD SOME OF THESE MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS... WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE LIKELY GOING TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ID... A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. LARGE SURFACE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FEW HAIL AND WIND REPORTS. ..CARBIN.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 00:44:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 19:44:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406190044.i5J0ig218510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190042 SWODY1 SPC AC 190041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FSI 50 SSE CDS 50 N BGS 25 SE HOB 40 WNW HOB 45 W CVS 35 SSE RTN 15 ENE TAD 10 ENE LHX 40 E LAA 15 ESE GCK 25 SSW P28 35 NW OKC FSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW BVE 25 E LFT 20 E LFK 50 E ACT 40 SSE SEP 30 N JCT 20 NNW DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 35 E P38 45 ENE NID 50 NW NID 25 NNE SCK 20 WNW RBL MFR 45 N ONP ...CONT... 60 WNW 4OM 35 SE 63S 25 WNW MSO 10 N BTM 50 E WEY 10 E RIW 50 SSE CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 W LBF 15 WNW GRI 30 WNW BIE 20 NW FLV 30 NNE COU 15 SW CMI 10 WNW MIE 30 WSW CMH 15 ENE PKB 15 ESE MGW 15 W AOO 25 NE PSB 10 NW ELM 45 NW SYR ...CONT... 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SERN NM...NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO THE SAME TYPE OF STRUCTURE THAT WED/THURSDAY EVENING MCS CLUSTERS EXHIBITED. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR TONIGHT IS THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT IS SPREADING WWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS OUTFLOW MAY ENHANCE NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SUGGESTS AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ELONGATED MCS SHOULD EMERGE AND PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING. ..DARROW.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 05:36:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 00:36:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406190537.i5J5bW206367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190535 SWODY1 SPC AC 190533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HOB 25 NW INK 30 NW GDP 40 S 4CR 45 SSW LVS 35 W TAD 25 SSW COS 35 N COS 15 WNW LIC 40 SSE LIC 40 N CAO 20 ESE CVS 30 NNE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 SW GUP 35 ESE 4HV 20 ENE U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE NFL 40 NNE FAT 45 SW TVL 35 E MHS 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ 25 SSW ABR RWF FRM 10 WSW P35 20 SW OJC 45 E BVO 25 E FSM 35 NNE LIT 45 ENE PAH 15 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 SE HGR 10 E BWI 25 NNE ABE 40 WSW MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND ERN CO... ...CO/NM... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO TX DURING THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD ACROSS TX DEEP INTO CENTRAL NM...LIKELY WEST OF THE ERN MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS CO...WITH A SWD SHIFT TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. LATEST THINKING IS MOST ACTIVITY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WHERE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM...WITH SUFFICIENT VEERING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. FARTHER NORTH INTO CO...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD TOWARD THE ERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY LOSE INTENSITY AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER LAPSE RATES OVER ERN CO. HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS FARTHER EAST. ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CANADA/NERN U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL FORCE NORTH/SOUTH WARM FRONT EWD IN ADVANCE OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RESULTANT MOISTENING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST DATA/GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIMITED. STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD AID AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. ...INTERIOR NW... UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR EWD ACROSS WA/ORE INTO NRN WY SATURDAY. BENEATH THIS SHEARING TROUGH H5 TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL WITH REASONABLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION TO SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY ROBUST CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 12:48:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 07:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406191249.i5JCn7232216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191247 SWODY1 SPC AC 191245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PVW 30 NNW MAF 35 SE CNM 30 ESE ALM 50 SSW LVS 35 W COS 20 WSW FCL 45 E FCL AKO 30 NNW LAA 15 NNW DHT 40 W PVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ 25 SSW ABR RWF FRM 10 SW P35 35 SE SZL 30 WNW UNO 25 N ARG 25 WSW EVV 15 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 SE HGR 10 E BWI 25 NNE ABE 40 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 SW GUP 35 ESE 4HV 20 ENE U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE NFL 40 NNE FAT 45 SW TVL 35 E MHS 30 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SURFACE FRONT...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW... EXTENDS FROM NRN TX WWD INTO NERN NM. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER DIFFUSE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AS FAR N AS SRN KS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING FROM ELY TO SELY OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER ERN CO AND INTO NE NM REMAIN FROM THE COOLER...LOW THETA-E AIR RESIDING ACROSS KANSAS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND OBTAINS A LARGER SLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME FROM THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDING OVER TX AND OK. MOREOVER... WEAKENING UPSLOPE COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME WILL MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL NM NWD THROUGH CNTRL CO. EWD EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IS CONDITIONAL UPON LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT...AND IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ERN CO WILL MIX OUT SLOWER DUE TO PRESENCE OF A DEEPER COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NM INTO CO WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO FAR ERN CO/WRN KS WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF COOL STABLE AIR WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY. OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL FROM PARTS OF NRN KS INTO NEB. ...CNTRL/E TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND EXTEND WWD THROUGH TX. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXIST THIS MORNING N OF AN E-W FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THOUGH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY NOON...DURATION OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO INITIATE. WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES THIS AFTERNOON. OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AOB 800 J/KG. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 16:38:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 11:38:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406191639.i5JGd7208993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191636 SWODY1 SPC AC 191634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E 4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 20 W FCL 45 E FCL AKO 20 NW LAA 25 SSW CVS 25 E 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 45 NE SAD 20 E GNT 35 WNW 4SL 20 NNW CEZ 20 ENE U24 35 N ELY 45 NE U31 20 NNW LOL 25 NNE SVE 35 E MHS 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ 45 SW MBG 30 NNW SUX 25 WSW LWD 40 S SZL 30 WNW UNO 25 ENE ARG 45 ENE DYR 30 S OWB 40 NE SDF 20 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 E HGR 25 W ILG 40 NE ABE 15 NE MSV 40 NNE UCA 45 W MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NM AND CO... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PREVAIL. THOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO EXPERIENCE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT MODEST SHEAR. ...NM INTO CO/SERN WY... SURFACE RIDGING...ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX TODAY. THIS WILL SHIFT ESELY SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GENERALLY WWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING MORE SELY OVER ERN CO INTO SERN WY AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-40 KT WILL PERSIST FROM ERN WY INTO NRN NM AND SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... INCLUDING SUPERCELLS TODAY. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR OVER CO/SERN WY WILL BE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BURN-OFF AND ALLOW LATE DAY SUN TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR FAVORABLE TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVERGENT ZONES LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY ALLOW STORMS TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EWD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED CAPPING. WILL LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF SLIGHT TO NRN CO ATTM...DUE TO GREATER CERTAINTY OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN WY AS WELL SHOULD POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SWD IN NM...WITH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...HEATING WILL BE STRONG OVER THIS REGION AS AREA REMAINS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE THIS MORNING. THOUGH STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE COMMON JUST EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUPPORT A FEW LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND EVENTS...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX... MCV WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN TX INTO FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE IN NATURE... WITH MOST LIKELY THREATS OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN ROCKIES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AS WELL UNDER WLY H5 WINDS NEAR 40 KT. HOWEVER...LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG / MAY ACT TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO SLGT AT 20Z. ...NEW ENGLAND... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION. LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND CLEARING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF SERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 20:08:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 15:08:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406192008.i5JK8l205747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192006 SWODY1 SPC AC 192004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 25 WNW FCL 45 E FCL AKO 20 NW LAA CVS 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 55 NW SAD 20 E GNT 35 WNW 4SL CEZ U24 MHS 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ HON 40 SSW SPW LWD 40 S SZL UNO DYR 40 NE SDF 30 ENE PIT 25 SSW CXY ILG ACY 25 ENE ISP 20 NNE BML 70 NNW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO AND N-CENTRAL/NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGLY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH OVER ID/WA. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CO AND NERN NM...WHERE GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 4-6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER MOUNTAINS SHOULD EXTEND EWD TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. KINEMATICS FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL VEERING AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN NM INTO FAR W TX. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING NEAR 30 F BY 22-23Z TIME FRAME. RELATED SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIONAL POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. APPARENT MCV OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THERE. SEVERE THREAT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N...AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC SFC CONTRIBUTION TO CAPE. FARTHER N...ISOLATED TSTMS EVIDENT OVER CO/WY MOUNTAINS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE OVER SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE APPARENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR DEN. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFORMATION ACROSS CO FRONT RANGE AREA. BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STRONGER CAPPING FARTHER E OVER ERN CO AND NEB PANHANDLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK INTO KS. SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AREA...HOWEVER...WHERE NERN RIM OF 30-40 KT LLJ WILL SUPPLY AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE. ASSOCIATED WAA REGIME WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AFTER 20/06Z...BASED ON MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. OCCASIONAL HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR. ...RED RIVER-ARKLATEX REGION TO W-CENTRAL TX... MCV IS QUITE PRONOUNCED IN VIS/IR/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK AND N-CENTRAL TX AS OF THIS WRITING...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN AR THROUGH EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG AND ABOVE QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY FORM FARTHER W ALONG FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSES NEAR SEP-ABI-HOB LINE. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND ARKLATEX MCV SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE...AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE. ...NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS MAINE/NH INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LIFT ZONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. ...WRN WY/ID/SWRN MT... WIDELY SCATTERED CB ALREADY EVIDENT IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THIS REGION...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 20/00Z. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 01:08:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 20:08:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406200109.i5K193203835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200106 SWODY1 SPC AC 200104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 45 SW COS 35 ENE PUB 30 NW LAA 55 N CAO 30 SSE CVS 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 25 N TCS 35 E GNT 10 E DRO 40 NE 4BL U24 50 WNW ELY 25 NNW BIH 40 NE MER 40 W LOL 95 NNW WMC 35 W BKE 35 SE SLE 15 N ONP ...CONT... 65 NW FCA 20 NE LWT 40 ESE 4BQ 25 W PHP 55 W YKN 20 WNW BIE 20 SW SLN 45 SSE EHA 15 SE LBB 45 S MAF 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 55 WNW LFK 35 SSW PGO 50 N LIT GWO 40 WSW TCL 40 SSE ATL 20 S AVL 40 E HKY 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NM INTO SERN CO... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WY/NRN CO WITHIN MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WY INTO CO. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO SWD TO CENTRAL NM. MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS A 30 KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM WRN TX TO WRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE WY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EWD ATOP COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT INTO WRN NEB/NWRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WWD MOVING MCV LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TX /30 ESE GDP/ WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN NM AND OVER FAR WEST TX. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 06:02:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 01:02:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406200603.i5K63P209788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200601 SWODY1 SPC AC 200558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW IRK 45 NW SGF 45 ENE TUL 40 SSE PNC 15 SE GAG 40 SSW EHA 40 S LAA 25 E LAR 40 NNW DGW 50 SW PHP 55 W YKN 20 SW OMA 35 NE STJ 40 SW IRK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW 15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40 WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW RDU HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NERN STATES WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO ONTARIO AND NRN PLAINS. NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AT 00Z TO SRN ND AND ERN WY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS WRN/SWRN KS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH... BEFORE TRACKING EWD TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX IS PROGGED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING OK/TX PANHANDLES TO ERN OK BY 00Z. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING MAINLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REINFORCE THE COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN KS AND NEB...LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE RETURNING WARM FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD...WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING PORTIONS OF NEB BY MID AFTERNOON...AND AN AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN WY/ERN CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EWD ACROSS WRN NEB TO CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL KS/SRN NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW AND NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS TO SERN WY/WRN NEB...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NOCTURNAL AND QG STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REACHING WRN MO/SWRN IA BY 12Z MONDAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...SRN SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN... AN AXIS OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...COASTAL SC/GA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT OVERALL SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 06:02:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 01:02:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406200604.i5K64K210329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200601 SWODY1 SPC AC 200558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW IRK 45 NW SGF 45 ENE TUL 40 SSE PNC 15 SE GAG 40 SSW EHA 40 S LAA 25 E LAR 40 NNW DGW 50 SW PHP 55 W YKN 20 SW OMA 35 NE STJ 40 SW IRK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW 15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40 WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW RDU HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NERN STATES WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO ONTARIO AND NRN PLAINS. NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AT 00Z TO SRN ND AND ERN WY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS WRN/SWRN KS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH... BEFORE TRACKING EWD TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX IS PROGGED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING OK/TX PANHANDLES TO ERN OK BY 00Z. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING MAINLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REINFORCE THE COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN KS AND NEB...LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE RETURNING WARM FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD...WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING PORTIONS OF NEB BY MID AFTERNOON...AND AN AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN WY/ERN CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EWD ACROSS WRN NEB TO CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL KS/SRN NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW AND NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS TO SERN WY/WRN NEB...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NOCTURNAL AND QG STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REACHING WRN MO/SWRN IA BY 12Z MONDAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...SRN SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN... AN AXIS OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...COASTAL SC/GA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT OVERALL SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 12:50:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 07:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406201250.i5KCof210314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201248 SWODY1 SPC AC 201246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE FNB 30 SE OJC 40 ENE TUL 30 S END 65 NE AMA 45 W EHA 25 S LIC 35 N LAR 35 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 25 SSE ANW 20 SE OLU 35 NNE FNB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW 15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40 WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW RDU HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS AREA... ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER NE AZ IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A LEE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TX PORTIONS OF FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST AREA WWD THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE TO LIFT NWD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER NWWD INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MCS MOVING SEWD INTO NW OK THIS MORNING IS BEING SUSTAINED BY 30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING AS DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON ITS SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. IN EITHER CASE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST UPSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO...WY...NEB AND KS.MOISTURE GRADIENT IN VICINITY OF THE TX FRONT REMAINS RATHER DIFFUSE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AS FAR N AS THE KS/OK BORDER. PRESENCE OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MAY DELAY NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE UNTIL LATE TODAY. THE NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. BY LATE AFTERNOON AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND WRN NEB. INITIAL STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BELOW 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT..BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH NEB/KS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD PERSIST INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SW TX... OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW IN THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND GENERALLY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER. HOWEVER... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES AREA... SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SWD THROUGH MT AND NRN ID. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 16:34:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 11:34:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406201635.i5KGZ8202605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201633 SWODY1 SPC AC 201631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LNK 25 W TOP 40 NW BVO 30 WSW END 30 NW CDS 50 WSW AMA 35 SW CAO 35 N LAR 35 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 25 NW BUB 10 W LNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W ANJ 35 S IMT 15 S CWA 15 W MSN 35 ESE MMO 35 S MTO 35 E UNO 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 45 WNW TRI 40 S PSK 25 NNW SOP HSE ...CONT... 25 E DUG 65 NNW SVC 45 S LVS 15 NNW RTN 20 SW PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 15 N PDX 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA.... ...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE AREA... WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF E/SE CO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN CO. MEANWHILE...AN MCS APPROACHING CENTRAL OK /THAT MOVED OVER SW KS LAST NIGHT/ WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A 25-30 KT LLJ AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FEED FROM THE SW. LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS N/NE CO...THAT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SPEED MAX MOVING EWD OVER NE UT/NW CO/SRN WY...WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SW NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO NW KS AND SLOW SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...AS WELL AS THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER RIDGES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL CO THIS EVENING AND INTO W/NW KS BY EARLY TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ACROSS WRN KS BY EARLY TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE DO NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CO/KS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND 0-1 KM SRH MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS EVENING. ...WY AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT/ID/ORE WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD WY BY THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A ZONE OF ASCENT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN ID/NE UT EWD ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...S GA/N FL AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MCV MOVING EWD OVER MS/AL THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALIGNED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV/S OF THE FRONT AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG OVER THE S GA/N FL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 20:07:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 15:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406202008.i5KK8R225070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202005 SWODY1 SPC AC 202004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE HSI TOP TUL 25 NNE LTS CDS 30 N CVS 35 NW RTN 35 S CPR 35 NNE DGW 15 SE CDR 20 SW BBW 40 SE HSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 45 ENE CLL TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 35 NNW ABI 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SW DMN 40 SSW GNT SAF 60 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 35 SW ELY OWY 55 NE BKE 30 NE CTB ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK ABR 40 NNE BJI 25 NE AUW 15 WSW STL UNO 65 WSW MEM TUP 25 SSW HSV ATL 25 NE MCN 65 N AYS 35 S SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SERN WY/ERN CO/WRN KS/... PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS SERN CO AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO MOUNTAINS WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENING NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NERN CO AND SERN WY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AREA...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE CO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THOUGH THE LOWER 3 KM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWEST KM MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. REFERENCE WW 499. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH THE WRN KS BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT AS THE COMPLEX MOVES EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT. ...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN KS/OK EXTENDS FROM NEAR DHT/AMA SEWD INTO NWRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NWRN AND POSSIBLY N CENTRAL OK WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ...EXTREME SRN GA/N FL AREA... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV MOVING INTO WRN AL WEST OF TCL. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS EXTREME SRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MCV AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ...THE VERY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 6 KM SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..IMY.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 00:59:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 19:59:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406210100.i5L10K201878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210058 SWODY1 SPC AC 210056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S OMA FLV 45 ENE TUL 10 NW OKC 35 NNE CDS 30 NNW AMA 15 NE TAD 25 W LIC 30 WSW BFF 50 E CDR 30 ESE BUB 45 S OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 30 E AUS 30 WNW TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 15 N ABI 35 WNW DRT ...CONT... 35 W ELP 25 SSW ONM 15 S LVS 40 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 15 S ELY 20 S BYI 25 E S80 75 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 ENE HVR 45 NNW MLS 35 W P24 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 40 NE IWD 25 NE EAU 30 W LNR BRL 20 SW ELD 35 SSE GLH 30 W SEM 40 W ATL 40 SSE TYS 25 NE AVL CLT 40 SSW AGS 20 E SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN NEB...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO SERN KS. OTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARIES WERE LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ONE OVER NRN OK AND A SECOND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX NNWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. AT 00Z...ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SWRN SD SWD ACROSS ERN CO TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH SEVERAL OF THESE CLUSTERS SHOWING LINEAR STRUCTURE. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SERN CO...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50+ KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP WITH ANY OF THE ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A SLY LLJ OVER WRN TX WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING ESEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES/INSTABILITY GRADIENTS OVER NEB/KS AND NRN OK. AS THE MCS/S DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD TOWARD SERN NEB/ERN KS AND CENTRAL/NERN OK BY 12Z MONDAY. ...ERN TX EWD ALONG THE SRN GULF COAST STATES TO FL... EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TO FL IS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 06:06:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 01:06:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406210606.i5L66o219085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210603 SWODY1 SPC AC 210601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PUB 50 WNW GCK 15 SSE CNK 20 NNW STJ 25 SE UIN 40 SW HUF 35 SSW OWB 45 E MKL UOX 45 SW HOT 25 NE DAL 20 W MWL 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW AMA 45 WNW RTN 25 WSW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 60 ESE SOW 35 N ROW 40 NNE LVS 50 SW ALS PGA 20 WNW SGU 55 WNW MLF 35 SE MLD 25 ESE JAC 45 N CPR 40 ENE AIA YKN 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 50 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTB 35 SSE GTF 25 NNW MQM 50 SW 27U 80 N BOI 25 NE ALW EPH 35 N DLS 60 NNE LMT 25 NE TVL 10 SE BIH 35 NNW NID 40 NNE BFL 20 E CEC 25 NNW OLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/NERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WRN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SSEWD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS/S AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY 00Z. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL TRACK SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN MO TO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES BY 00Z. WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACK UP ALONG THE CO ROCKIES EARLY IN THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD CDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MCS/ EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ...SRN PLAINS EWD TO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND OZARK REGION... ONE OR TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM SRN IA SWD TO THE OZARKS OF SRN MO/NRN AR. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE MCV/S LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS/S MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FROM KS/WRN MO AND SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THESE STATES...WITH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER OK. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM TO THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS KS/MO INTO OK/NRN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD. A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL TX NOSING INTO OK WILL SUPPORT AN MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS STORMS AND TRACK ACROSS OK TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ...PORTIONS OF WRN GREAT LAKES TO ERN IA/IL... A NARROW AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEWD ACROSS NERN IA/WI TO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL/SRN WI COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NERN IA BY 21-00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... MODELS INDICATE A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT NNEWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO ERN WV/WRN VA. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOIST SLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN CO... AN AXIS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE WITHIN THE AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 12:49:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 07:49:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406211250.i5LCoC204506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211247 SWODY1 SPC AC 211245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MWL LBB 40 WNW RTN 25 SSE PUB 30 SE ICT 40 NW SGF 35 W STL 15 E SLO 40 SW OWB 30 ESE MKL 25 SE GLH 30 NNW TYR 15 W MWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 SW EPM 50 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 60 ESE SOW 35 N ROW 40 NNE LVS 50 SW ALS PGA 20 WNW SGU 55 WNW MLF 35 SE MLD 25 ESE JAC 45 N CPR 40 ENE AIA YKN 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTB 35 SSE GTF 25 NNW MQM 50 SW 27U 80 N BOI 25 NE ALW EPH 35 N DLS 60 NNE LMT 25 NE TVL 10 SE BIH 35 NNW NID 40 NNE BFL 20 E CEC 25 NNW OLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT/WRN ND/ ROTATING AROUND CNTRL CANADIAN VORTEX. SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHEARING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL MN SWWD INTO SERN CO/ WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NERN NM BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEYS... ELONGATED...MATURE MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM S-CNTRL MO/N-CNTRL AR WWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK...GENERALLY MOVING ESEWD AT 20-30KTS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS OVER E-CNTRL OK EWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A MOIST AIRMASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ EXISTS TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. THOUGH MCS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...REGENERATION OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR WITHIN REGION OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. THOUGH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING MCS HAS PUSHED WWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS...DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF 25-35KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. DIURNAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER..IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE WITH MCS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK/NRN TX OVERNIGHT. ...WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SRN WI WWD INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN/CNTRL MO. REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY MCV/VORTICITY CENTER OVER CNTRL IA. GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ON BACKSIDE OF E COAST ANTICYCLONE COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY AHEAD OF MCV OVER THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IF POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MT/ND SYSTEM SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF FRONT...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION. ...SERN STATES... 12Z JAX/CHS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE RELATIVELY WEAK CAP OBSERVED ON THESE SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK E-W BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 16:54:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 11:54:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406211655.i5LGt8222554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211651 SWODY1 SPC AC 211650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW SEP LBB 40 WNW RTN 15 E COS 40 E LAA 40 S DDC 55 NNE ADM 10 SSE FSM 30 W UNO 40 SW STL 15 E SLO 40 SW OWB 30 ESE MKL 25 SE GLH 20 NNW TYR 45 WNW SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW HVR 35 WSW LWT 10 WSW DLN 65 W 27U 20 NE LWS 35 WNW GEG 35 SSW 4OM 40 W EAT 20 WNW DLS 35 SE AST CLM ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 55 NNE SAD 30 NNW ROW 15 N LVS 60 SSW ALS 35 S U17 25 SSE CDC 30 N MLF 30 SW EVW 50 NW LND 45 N CPR 40 WSW MHN 20 SE YKN 75 E ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 20 NW EPM 40 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL KEEP STRONG NLY AND WLY FLOW FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN PLATEAU. ONLY CLEAR SURFACE FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD OVER NWRN IA AND SERN NEB INTO SWRN KS AND SERN CO. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AR SWWD AND WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX...NWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK HAS BECOME RAIN-COOLED AS A RESULT OF EARLY MORNING MCS RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA. ...SRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... MODELS ADVANCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND AND MOVING SEWD FROM CO INTO S CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS OF TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK WHERE WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 135-145 KT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPPER GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS UPPER LOW OVER NRN MANITOBA MOVES SLOLY SWD. THIS PLACES TX PANHANDLE INTO OK IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO SRN OK AND AR...BUT HEATING IS DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK. QUESTION IS WHEN INITIATION CAN OCCUR AS THE MODELS ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN CO/NERN NM BY 22/00Z AND OVER SWRN OK NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...BUT ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO/OK/TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BECOMING ANOTHER MCS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND EXTREME NRN TX TONIGHT. ...SC AND PARTS OF NC... MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING EWD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... COLD FRONT/ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS IA INTO WI. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY ACROSS WI MAY REACH 1000 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AND WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 19:50:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 14:50:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406211951.i5LJp1208538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211948 SWODY1 SPC AC 211946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW SEP LBB RTN 50 W PUB GCK P28 OKC FSM ARG POF 20 W PAH 50 WSW HOP 20 NNW TUP 25 SE GLH 20 NNW TYR 45 WNW SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 40 S SAD TCS 4CR SAF FMN PGA 20 NW SGU 70 NW P38 DPG OGD LND CPR 10 NW BFF MHN ANW MHE BKX STC 25 WNW DLH 75 E ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE AUG 50 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW HVR 35 WSW LWT LVM 10 NE DLN MSO 45 NNW 3TH 63S 4OM 30 SE BLI 15 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY.... BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. NEW DEEP CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS REGIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED BOUNDARY NOW CURVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. CAP APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT WITH FURTHER HEATING...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 22/00Z. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET...LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN STRONGEST CELLS... AND RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOL. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL SUPPORTING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN TRAILING CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH/WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 01:15:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 20:15:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406220116.i5M1GM231428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220113 SWODY1 SPC AC 220111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JCT 50 SSW LBB 15 ESE TCC 30 NW CAO 50 SSE EHA 35 ESE GAG 15 ENE PNC 50 NNW SGF 25 NNW HRO 55 S HRO 40 SSE MLC 30 NNE DAL 40 S SEP 30 NNW JCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 20 SW CNM ROW 45 NE 4CR SAF 45 NE GUP 30 NNW FLG 15 NE NID 40 NNE MER 50 WNW TVL 55 SE ELY 15 ESE CNY 10 NW ASE 50 SSW DGW 10 E AIA 35 SW HLC SLN 25 S IRK 45 WSW RFD 30 ESE RHI 15 ENE MQT ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 WSW PSB 15 ENE ROA 20 ENE ILM ...CONT... 40 SW GLS 60 NNE VCT 20 N COT 60 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUL 55 WNW 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 25 N TUS 10 E SAD SVC 40 SE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... ...EXTREME NERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SWWD TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS CO...AND A SECOND SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SRN STREAM FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT 00Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD TO NEAR STL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER...AND WSWWD TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED GENERALLY E-W TO NW ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO WRN TX/TX PANHANDLE...AND WERE PROVIDING THE FOCI FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO WRN TX. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARKS AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MERGERS PRODUCE SUFFICIENT COLD POOLS...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK OVERNIGHT AS A SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SWRN OK STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT SHOULD STILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SSE ACROSS OK AND SRN MO. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ATTM COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK TO NRN AR OVERNIGHT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THAT TIME...SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SERN STATES... A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z WITH AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL MS TO NWRN LA...MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA. ADDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST AS THESE STORMS MERGE OVER THE SAME LOCATION WITH A NWD BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. DESPITE SOME STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION (SPCSWOMCD) NUMBER 1370. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER MUCH OF GA INTO SC AND SWD ALONG MAINLY THE ERN FL PENINSULA. WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 05:53:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 00:53:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406220554.i5M5sM202397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220552 SWODY1 SPC AC 220550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E HSE 25 W RDU 40 NW AND 40 NW BHM 25 SSE GLH 55 ESE SHV 35 NE LFK 20 ENE ACT 45 NNE MWL 35 N ADM 10 E FYV 15 S POF 10 NNE BWG 25 W HTS 10 ENE HLG 35 WSW BUF ...CONT... 40 NNW BML 10 WNW PSM 15 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX 25 S FLG 40 SSW GCN 45 NW IGM 45 E NID 15 W NID 20 NNW FAT 50 N SAC 45 S SVE RNO 65 N BIH 35 S TPH 25 ENE U17 25 ESE EGE 10 SE DEN 30 S LAA 15 NNW PNC 10 NW UNO 40 SSW SDF 10 S ZZV 20 NE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG 45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 45 E RIW 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 40 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 65 N LMT 20 N MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION/TN VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NOAM TODAY. ONE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY SWWD...AS A SECOND LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS MANITOBA. STRONG BAND OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW AROUND THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE LATTER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALBERTA SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...AND EWD TO THE NERN STATES. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGEST...THOUGH DEAMPLIFYING LATER TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES. WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO UPPER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SOMEWHAT WEAKER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN TIER STATES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES TODAY...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WITH THE EWD EXTENT LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET. ...ARKLATEX REGION TO THE TN VALLEY... COMBINATION OF MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OK/NRN TX MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE... SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN OK/NRN TX. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS ALREADY VERY MOIST...AND WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS MAY AFFECT SURFACE HEATING/SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. NONETHELESS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EWD TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX. DESPITE MODEST WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS FROM THE SRN HALF OF AR/NRN LA TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY...AS A SSWLY LLJ FEED A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS REGION. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ...SRN ROCKIES TO SWRN-SRN PORTIONS OF TX... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM...AND SURGE SWD ACROSS SWRN TX...REACHING A LINE FROM DRT TO ELP BY 00Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM SRN/SWRN TX...WHILE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN UT PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE TODAY AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVVS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. FARTHER SE...25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR MULTI-CELL STORMS ACROSS SWRN-SRN TX AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS AREA. SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROGGED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE TO SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 12:43:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 07:43:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406221244.i5MCiS228296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221242 SWODY1 SPC AC 221240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE WAL 30 NNW RIC 20 N CHO 15 SSW AOO 10 N BGM 30 SW PSF 30 SSW GON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ACT 15 ESE JBR 45 NNE TUP 30 WNW CBM 15 SE HEZ 40 ENE LCH 25 WSW GLS 50 SE AUS 45 NNE ACT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG 45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 45 E RIW 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX 25 S FLG 40 SSW GCN 45 NW IGM 45 E NID 15 W NID 20 NNW FAT 50 N SAC 45 S SVE RNO 65 N BIH 35 S TPH 25 ENE U17 25 ESE EGE 10 SE DEN 30 S LAA 15 NNW PNC 10 NW UNO 40 SSW SDF 10 S ZZV 20 NE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 65 N LMT 20 N MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING DEEP VORTEX WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD THROUGH CNTRL CANADA. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THIS VORTEX...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER: 1) CNTRL GREAT LAKES 2) WRN ONTARIO...AND 3) OVER SRN ALBERTA. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME. ...DELVMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IN PROGRESS FROM THE NRN APPALACHIANS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE/UPPER JET STREAK OVER NRN OH COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING... RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CNTRL GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. HERE SRN PERIPHERY OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE COLOCATED WITH NRN EXTENT OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... TWO SEPARATE MCS/S ARE CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. NRN COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WITH LEADING EDGE FROM CNTRL AR SWWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. THE OTHER IS LOCATED OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH MCV BECOMING BETTER DEFINED N OF SAT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF REMNANT MCS COLD POOLS INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. ...UPPER/MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY... ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF 20-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODERATELY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN ONTARIO AND SRN ALBERTA DISTURBANCES MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 16:30:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 11:30:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406221630.i5MGUh212971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221621 SWODY1 SPC AC 221619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ORF 45 E LYH 15 S SHD 15 SSE AOO 30 N IPT 20 WSW MSV 20 NE EWR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E ACT 40 SW HOP 35 SSW BNA 45 WSW CBM 30 W MCB 25 W LFT 25 SSW HOU 35 NNW PSX 55 E ACT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 15 E LMT 30 SSW MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG 45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 15 SW LND 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 40 ENE PHX 55 NE PHX 25 W PRC 20 ENE EED 60 E NID 40 N NID 35 WSW TVL 35 W RNO 30 NE RNO 15 WSW LOL 40 NNW ELY CDC 45 SSW BCE 45 NNE INW 30 ENE GUP 25 SE FMN 50 SSE MTJ 15 NE ASE DEN 45 SSE LHX 25 E DHT 35 WNW CSM 40 ESE OKC 15 SE UMN 45 ESE TBN 40 W SDF 15 SSE CMH 25 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PORTION SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN STATES INCLUDING DELMARV... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH MANITOBA AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS AT HIGHER LATITUDES NORTH AMERICA. STRONG MID/UPPER WLY FLOW EXTENDS EWD TO S OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. 120KT POLAR JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. S OF 40N FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER WITH A COUPLE MCV'S REMAINING FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY SRN PLAINS. STRONGER OF THE TWO LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TX WITH ANOTHER NRN AR. COLD FRONT FROM LE SWWD THRU SRN IND AND THEN ACROSS NRN TX WHERE IT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. S AND E OF FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY...TROPICAL AIR MASS PREVAILS. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... TROPICAL AIR MASS TO S OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE CIN AND LOW LCLS. WITH 15 TO LOCALLY 20KT OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR...PRIMARILY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF SEWD PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE SHEAR WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. REF MCD 1378. ...NORTHEAST U.S... EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NY/NRN PA WHERE STRONG UPPER JET MAX WILL BE TRACKING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG WLYS ACROSS SRN PA INTO DELMARVA...HEATING WILL BE GREATER AND AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F...MUCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG OR MORE WHICH COUPLED WITH THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. MODE EXPECTED TO BE MULTI-CELL GIVEN THE MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SINCE LAPSE RATES WILL BE 6C/KM OR LESS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY ANY SHORT LINES/BOWS THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. REF MCD 1379. OTHER AREAS OF LESS THAN SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE ANYWHERE ELSE IN SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER. PULSE SEVERE WILL BE DOMINANT STORM MODE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CAPE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG...STRONG FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING AFTERNOON...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SERN AZ FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WHICH STILL INCLUDES WRN NM. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THERE IS ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE INVERTED VEE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 19:59:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 14:59:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406221959.i5MJxf219550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221956 SWODY1 SPC AC 221954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ORF LYH 50 ESE MGW 35 SSW IPT MSV POU 15 E JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW GGG 25 W ELD 15 NNW GLH 30 ENE MKL 10 SSW CKV 30 NE BNA 10 ESE CSV 25 W CHA TCL MEI 25 WNW GPT 30 ESE LFT BPT 15 E HOU LFK 15 WSW GGG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE OSC MCW YKN 55 E CDR 50 NNW RIW MQM 55 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 15 E LMT 30 SSW MFR 35 NE PDX 20 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 40 ENE PHX 55 NE PHX 25 W PRC EED 30 NNE EDW 50 NNE BFL 50 N FAT 35 WNW TVL 40 ESE RBL 30 SE MHS 65 SSW 4LW 75 WNW WMC 55 SE BAM 50 NE DRA SGU PGA 60 NE INW 20 NNW GUP FMN DRO GUC 10 W COS 35 SSW LIC LAA 40 S LAA 25 E DHT 35 WNW CSM 40 ESE OKC 15 SE UMN 45 ESE TBN SDF FKL 30 NE BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACRES PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... SOUTH AND EAST OF BROAD...DEEP MID/UPPER CIRCULATION...WHICH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. ...TEXAS THRU TN VLY/GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS BEST REFLECTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...WHICH CURRENTLY CURVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...IN PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD.... IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. SEVERAL WEAK COLD POOLS ARE ALREADY APPARENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...EMBEDDED WITHIN 20 TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FAIRLY LARGE BUT WEAK COLD POOL HAS ALSO FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALSO HEATED/DESTABILIZED IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN/ NORTHERN VIRGINIA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...LIKELY WILL POSE INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITH SURFACE HEATING...BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL CANADIAN CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALONG/NORTH OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET AXIS ...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WHICH BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FLOW REGIME IS VERY WEAK...BUT SLOW SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 01:04:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 20:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406230105.i5N14x227534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230102 SWODY1 SPC AC 230100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 40 S PHX 35 SSE PRC PRC IGM 60 NW NID TVL SVE MFR SEA 35 ENE BLI 50 NW 4OM EAT 4LW WMC EKO ELY PGA INW 40 NE SOW GUP 4SL GUC 50 ESE ASE COS LHX AMA 55 WNW ABI SJT ACT PRX POF CGI SDF MGW CXY IPT ALB 65 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ANJ TVC VOK OTG ANW 35 S BFF CPR IDA 60 W 27U 55 NE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA...AND UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN NWWD ACROSS BC/YUKON...DOMINATE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF CONUS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD FROM PRESENTLY ANALYZED POSITION OVER NWRN/CENTRAL MN...SRN SD...NRN WY. MEANWHILE...WAVY AND OUTFLOW-MODIFIED FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM SERN QUE SFC LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN NY...PA...THEN ROUGHLY DOWN OH VALLEY AND ACROSS AR...INTO S-CENTRAL TX. SRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT -- GENERALLY W OF MS RIVER -- WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AMIDST MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MIDDLE PORTION WILL MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND DECELERATE. REST OF FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SERN CONUS... TWO PRIMARY BROKEN BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS REGION -- 1. ARCHING FROM SERN TN/NERN AL ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN GA TO WRN SC...AND ALSO... 2. FROM SERN AR ACROSS ERN LA AND SRN MS. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AWAY FROM BELT OF ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN CYCLONE. MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND LINGERS WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN PIEDMONT REGION AND WRN TN/NRN MS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY WHERE STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAN BRIEFLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. 00Z RAOBS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN ENVIRONMENTS UNALTERED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...WITH NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE THREAT AFTER ABOUT 6Z. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 06:04:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 01:04:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406230605.i5N65C204542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230601 SWODY1 SPC AC 230559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE TOL PIA LWD DSM LSE 35 NNE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ECG EWN FLO 40 NW CAE GSP HKY LYH WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ERI 25 WSW CLE 20 W HUF 25 WSW STL CNK 30 WSW EAR 30 NNW IML 25 SSW SNY LIC 35 NNE LAA GCK 25 SSW GAG 40 NNW CDS 45 NNE BGS 40 SSW ABI 15 SSE BWD 35 NE ACT 45 SSW PRX 15 NE PGO 40 SE HRO 25 SSE PAH 20 NW SDF 15 NNE UNI 20 WSW DUJ SYR 45 W GFL 10 WSW ALB 20 SE ABE 35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 SSW BHB 35 NNW BML ...CONT... 40 NE HVR 60 NNW MLS 55 SW DIK 15 NNE Y22 30 S BIS 45 ENE BIS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 25 SE EED 45 ESE LAS 45 SSE SGU 35 NE GCN 50 NNE INW 15 W GUP 50 SSE FMN 35 E GUC 45 NW LAR 25 SSW LND 50 S BPI 25 SW PUC 35 SE U24 55 SSE ELY 50 SW ELY 35 NE U31 25 W U31 20 NE BIH 35 WSW BIH 35 NE MER 60 NW TVL 65 E 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 40 WSW MHS 20 ESE CEC 45 SSE OTH 35 SSE EUG 15 E PDX 30 SE OLM 30 ENE SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CAROLINAS...SERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN IA TO LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY REGION AND NRN ONT. ASSOCIATED BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. UPSTREAM LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER GREAT BASIN...PACIFIC NW STATES AND WRN CANADA. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER N-CENTRAL PORTION OF MANITOBA/SASK BORDER -- SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN DURING AFTERNOON. IN SRN STREAM...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN MEX -- IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS S TX. MEANWHILE WEAKER DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN MN SWWD TO SWRN WY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS WI/MI/IA AND NRN IL...AS WELL AS ADJOINING PORTIONS LS/LM/LH...THROUGH PERIOD. APCH OF SRN STREAM PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO AID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NC/SERN VA DURING DAY...WITH LOW MOVING ENEWD TOWARD HAMPTON ROADS REGION. ...VA/NC.... TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND/OR BANDS SHOULD FORM THROUGH AFTERNOON AND MOVE ENEWD TOWARD COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEAR FRONT AND LOW...BUT CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH AMIDST SFC HEATING TO ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF CAROLINAS. ISOLATED HAIL OF MARGINAL SEVERITY IS POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM SFC LOW ENEWD ALONG FRONT. SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS CORRIDOR NEAR CENTRAL/ERN VA/NC BORDER...WHERE 40-50 KT SFC-6 KM SHEARS ARE POSSIBLE. PRIND POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF 1. INTERFERENCE FROM SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTION IN VICINITY AND 2. WEAK LOW LEVEL ABSOLUTE FLOW -- GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS BELOW 800 MB -- LIMITING 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE. STILL...A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES RE POSSIBLE AMIDST AMBIENT REGIME OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC...MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON S OF FRONT...GIVEN STRONG SFC HEATING AND UPPER 60S/70S F SFC DEW POINTS. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD GA AND FL AS MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS...AND WITH SWWD EXTEND ACROSS MS DELTA REGION...THOUGH ALMOST ANY TSTM IN THIS VERY MOIST AND DIURNALLY HEATED REGIME MAY SPAWN WET MICROBURSTS. ...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING -- INVOF COLD FRONT. SOME CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTER OR LINE WITH BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR ABOUT EQUALLY PROBABLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCE ON BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DUSK. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF PREFRONTAL FLOW AND RESULTING REDUCTION IN CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH IN PRESENCE OF DIABATIC HEATING SUCH THAT FRONTAL LIFT CAN STILL INITIATE TSTMS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FCST BUT WITH UP TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND 00Z ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT -- FARTHER NW ACROSS ERN ND/NRN MN AREA. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS REGION THAN FARTHER SE...LIMITING INTENSITY/DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL COOLING...RELATED TO NW-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER DARK...SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTENSIFIES OVER SRN MN...IA AND PERHAPS NERN NEB. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY SMALL ELEVATED MUCAPES OF UNDER 700 J/KG...HOWEVER STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL. ...MT... STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONNECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 200-500 J/KG RANGE OVER ROCKIES TO AROUND 500-800 K/KG ON HIGH PLAINS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR WRN PORTION OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE SWWD THROUGH AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 12:53:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 07:53:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406231254.i5NCsF201789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231252 SWODY1 SPC AC 231250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DTW 20 NE BMI 25 SSE BRL 15 WNW OTM 15 NNE ALO 20 S LSE 30 S CWA 40 N APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HSE 10 N OAJ CAE 45 SSE AND 10 SSE AVL 15 SSW ROA 20 SE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 40 N MCB 20 SE TUP 10 NW BHM 30 ESE 0A8 25 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ERI 25 WSW CLE 20 W HUF 25 WSW STL 15 SW CNK 30 WSW EAR 30 NNW IML 25 SSW SNY 25 NW LIC 35 NNE LAA 25 WSW DDC 25 SSW GAG 40 NNW CDS 45 NNE BGS 40 SSW ABI 15 SSE BWD 35 NE ACT 45 SSW PRX 25 NE PGO 55 NNE LIT 30 SSW PAH 20 NW SDF 10 NNE UNI 10 NNW AOO 20 ENE ACY ...CONT... 15 SSW BHB 35 NNW BML ...CONT... 80 NW GGW 15 NNE GDV 30 WSW DIK 15 NNE Y22 30 S BIS 45 ENE BIS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 20 W GBN 75 SW PRC 30 SE EED 45 ESE LAS 45 SSE SGU 35 NE GCN 50 NNE INW 15 W GUP 50 SSE FMN 35 E GUC 45 NW LAR 25 SSW LND 50 S BPI 25 SW PUC 35 SE U24 55 SSE ELY 50 WSW ELY 70 E 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 40 WSW MHS 20 ESE CEC 45 SSE OTH 35 SSE EUG 15 E PDX 30 SE OLM 30 ENE SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF VA/NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. AN ADDITIONAL LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXIST THIS MORNING WHICH MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF SEQUENTIAL CP AIRMASS SURGES OUT OF CANADA. THE SRN MOST FRONT HAS BECOME ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...SUGGESTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM CURRENT POSITION OF SRN VA/NRN NC SWWD INTO SERN TX. WITH APPROACH OF MIDDLE TN DISTURBANCE...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST ALONG FRONT BY AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF NC. INTERMEDIATE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL LOWER MI WWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL INTO SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FINALLY...AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA. ...UPPER MIDWEST... THOUGH 12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF DAKOTAS/MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME FROM CNTRL/SRN WI SWWD INTO ERN IA/NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOREOVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EWD/NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. ...VA/NC... MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W. THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE S OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE W LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AHEAD OF MIDDLE TN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AXIS OF 35-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /PER PLAN VIEW VWP PLOT/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED HAIL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. ...CNTRL GULF COAST... 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MLCAPE OF NEARLY 3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CIN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES INTENSIFYING LINE SEGMENTS OVER S-CNTRL LA MOVING EWD INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON THE LIX AND 12Z JAN SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH ON LEADING EDGE OF DEVELOPING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORM CLUSTER. ...ERN ND INTO NRN MN... SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN MANITOBA TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT. VERY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OF 3.5-4.5KFT SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...CNTRL/ERN MT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BOTH ON SURFACE FRONT MOVING S INTO AREA AS WELL AS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THOUGH... RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...PROMINENT MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE 500MB WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 15:40:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 10:40:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406231541.i5NFfD216143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231536 SWODY1 SPC AC 231534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HSE 10 N OAJ CAE 45 SSE AND 10 SSE AVL 15 SSW ROA 20 SE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 40 N MCB 20 SE TUP 10 NW BHM 30 ESE 0A8 25 WSW PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 15 NNE MMO 35 N BRL 45 SSW ALO 15 E MCW 25 N OTG 45 N ABR 35 SSW GFK 25 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 70 SW PRC IGM 50 W P38 20 S 4LW 35 SE LMT 25 SW LMT 50 NNE MFR 40 SE PDX 25 E SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 NW GGW 15 NNE GDV 30 WSW DIK 40 NNE Y22 20 S BIS 45 NNE BIS 65 NE MOT ...CONT... 15 N ROC 25 NW FKL 15 W HUF 15 N MKC 45 SE LBF 15 SSE SNY 20 NNW LIC 40 NE LAA 10 WNW DDC 60 SE LBB 40 NE SJT 25 ESE SEP 20 SSW MLC 35 SE FYV 35 SW LEX 10 ENE CRW 30 E HGR 40 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 80 NNW 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E U24 20 NNW FLG 25 NW SOW 35 SSW GNT 35 ESE ASE 35 E RWL 25 ENE BPI 35 E SLC 40 E U24. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SEWD AND THEN EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. STRONG SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET IS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM SEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. THOUGH SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL/DRY FOR LATE JUNE...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMPENSATE AND PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN INTO SERN ND. COMBINATION OF INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRONG CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT AND SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE IGNORED INTO CENTRAL MN ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS EWD ALONG FRONT AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH EWD EXTENT OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE BECOMING MORE LIMITED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM THE ERN U.P. OF MI INTO ERN IA WILL LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND SUPERCELLS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE OVER ERN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI IN REGION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ...VA INTO THE CAROLINAS... LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION AS EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT BY 24/00Z. IN ADDITION...A RATHER WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL THEREFORE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM STRONG/MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIED TO HEATING AND DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WITH 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING MODEST FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN INFLUENCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH ENSUING SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASING THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 20:07:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:07:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406232008.i5NK8P222125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232005 SWODY1 SPC AC 232003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 50 SW SBN BRL CID ALO 10 ENE SPW ATY 55 N ATY 45 S BJI 35 S DLH IWD 45 E MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CRE SAV AYS ABY DHN 40 NW PNS 10 W GPT 30 SSW LUL 25 E 0A8 GAD 45 ENE HSV CHA CHA AND 10 SSW CLT 45 E DAN RIC 40 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 10 NNW BLH 35 NNW DAG 60 WNW BIH 10 N TVL RBL MFR 40 SE PDX 25 E SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR MLS REJ PHP 9V9 YKN 35 N ABR FAR GFK 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 15 NE EFK ART BUF MFD IND MTO IRK CNK RSL 10 WNW DDC CDS MAF 65 N DRT JCT BWD MKO FYV JBR LEX CRW MGW HGR 35 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BHB 40 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUC PGA 50 NNW INW INW 50 ENE SOW GUP CEZ MTJ ASE CAG RWL 35 SSE RKS PUC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES... STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD CENTRAL CANADIAN CLOSED LOW. MODELS INDICATE THIS JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING /FROM 70 TO 90 KT AT 500 MB/...AS IT TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC JET IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 80F TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS FRONT...AND...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE 24/02-03Z TIME FRAME WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TO THE SOUTH/EAST...LACK OF MORE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME WEAKER FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD ALONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. MODELS SUGGEST THIS JET WILL INTENSIFY BY EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IN SOURCE REGION FOR LIFTED PARCELS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH VERY MOIST/TROPICAL TYPE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST. BELT OF 30 KT MEAN FLOW ACCELERATING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RISK OF STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...BUT VERTICAL VORTICITY MAY ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACORNS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO SUGGEST PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW PROPAGATION SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF AN ISOLATED MICRO BURST. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 00:40:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 19:40:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406240041.i5O0fJ217343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240038 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE MKG 25 NE JVL 25 WSW LNR VOK 40 E AUW 45 NNW MBL 20 SE TVC 20 WSW HTL 50 NE MKG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CTB 30 E 3HT 40 E WRL 40 WNW COD 30 ENE 3DU 60 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DTW 50 S SBN 25 WNW BRL 30 SSW ALO 35 SSE EAU 30 ESE RHI 10 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SAV 35 NW SAV 20 SSE AND 40 SSW CLT 40 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 15 WNW CAK 20 WNW IND 45 E STJ 30 NNW MHK 40 WSW SNY 35 SSW LHX 10 SSW LBL 60 W SJT 65 SSW SJT 35 E SEP 40 SSW PRX 30 S HOT 10 NW UOX 25 SSW CSV 25 NE ROA 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25 ENE IGM 60 NNW P38 55 SE NFL 10 NNW BIH 50 ENE MER 10 E SVE 70 ENE 4LW 10 WSW ALW 40 E EPH 30 N EPH 20 W EAT 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 30 WSW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 20 W MHE 25 WSW MKT 30 SE DLH 35 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND SERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GRETA LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN MT/WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NC AND CNTRL AND ERN SC... ...SCNTRL WI TO SRN LWR MI... A CORRIDOR OF HIGH-END WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN WI AS A FAST MOVING AND INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST AT 50-60KT. ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY POWERFUL MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS NOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM MN. CONVECTION INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ON THE COLD FRONT NOW APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE CORN BELT. MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... SUSTAINED ASCENT ALONG WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT LYING ACROSS SRN WI...AND STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 60-90KT WILL SUSTAIN SUPERCELL HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. FAST MOVING CELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS LM AND INTO LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE... LIFT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW PROBABILITY WIND THREAT TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT FROM NEB SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER. ...MT/WY... MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW ON/BEHIND FRONTAL SURGE AND STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES/UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TOPPED BY STRONGER NWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. ...SERN TX... WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL AHEAD OF DEEPER REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH TIME AS AREAS AWAY FROM DEEPER ASCENT SLOWLY STABILIZE. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO. ...SOUTHEAST... SEVERAL WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING AND SUPERIMPOSED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WAS BUILDING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED STRONG HEATING DURING THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NC COASTAL PLAIN...ACROSS THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ARC OF STORMS DEVELOPING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF W/CNTRL SC. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. ..CARBIN.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 06:08:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 01:08:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406240609.i5O69F200858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240606 SWODY1 SPC AC 240604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW EFK 35 NNW GFL 30 ESE BFD 30 W CMH 45 NW STL 40 NNE CNU 25 ENE GAG 45 NE AMA 40 NE TCC 40 WNW TCC RTN 25 NE TAD 25 S GLD 20 NNW HLC 35 SW EAR 20 NNW BIE 15 W LWD 10 WNW MMO 10 SSW SBN 15 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 NE GBN 45 WNW PHX 65 ENE BLH 35 S IGM 30 E LAS 40 NW P38 60 WSW ELY 20 SW U31 65 N BIH 25 S BIH 40 SW BIH 60 WNW BIH 30 SW TVL 50 NNW LOL 45 SSE 4LW 25 E LMT 50 W MHS 20 E 4BK 25 SW EUG 10 WSW PDX 20 NW OLM UIL ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 45 NE BIL 40 NNE 81V 15 WNW PHP 20 NNE MHE 30 SSW RST 30 SW MKG 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 NW ESC 25 NNE RHI 60 SSE DLH 25 WNW HIB 20 WNW INL ...CONT... HUL 15 ESE LCI 10 SE PSF 20 NNW AVP 15 W PSB 10 SW HLG 35 ENE LUK 30 ESE BMG 25 NE MVN 45 SW BLV 30 ESE SGF 35 NW FYV 30 SW TUL 20 ENE OKC 20 S CSM 30 NW CDS 15 E PVW 10 ESE LBB 50 NE BGS 30 SSE ABI 20 ENE BWD 35 WSW DUA 10 ENE MLC 35 SE HRO 15 ENE PAH 30 SSE SDF 20 S CRW 20 S SHD 40 E RIC 30 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT 25 S GNT 45 W 4SL FMN 45 NNW GUP 45 ENE INW 35 NE SOW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A NARROW ZONE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO WRN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN NORTH AMERICA OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DEEP POLAR VORTEX MAKING UP THE DOWNSTREAM/ERN FLANK OF THE BLOCK AND CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SRN CANADA CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NERN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE VORTEX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER SCALE LOW TO THE NORTH OF MN BY EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WRN/TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS RESULT IN FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND NERN NM THROUGH LATE TODAY WHILE BOUNDARY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AND BACKED INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES FROM WY TO MT. IN THE SOUTH...A WEAK SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS TX WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A BELT OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OF 25-35KT IS FCST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THE SERN FLANK OF A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS TXK REGION. ...MIDWEST TO NY... LINEAR MCS NOW CROSSING LOWER MI IS FCST TO LIFT NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH MORNING AS AIRMASS FROM IND/OH TO WRN NY BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE COLD FRONT WILL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY...MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET COUPLED WITH 40-50KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID STORM PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FAST MOVING STORMS AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FROM NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... STRONG HEATING ACROSS KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN KS LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER OVER WRN KS WILL FAVOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH A PROPENSITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH/CAPE FARTHER EAST WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS REGION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ...ROCKIES... PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND PREDOMINANCE OF DIURNAL/MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND/OR WIND. ...TX GULF COAST ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY... WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT LINKED TO DEEP CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ACT ON VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS COULD ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT GREATER ORGANIZATION AS BAND OF STRONGER FLOW SPREADS NEWD FROM THE TX GULF COAST ACROSS LA/SRN MS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BUT ANY STORMS MOVING INTO AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 12:50:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 07:50:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406241250.i5OCoe224615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241248 SWODY1 SPC AC 241246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 25 NW LEB 20 SE BFD 25 WNW CMH 50 S UIN 25 SSE EMP 15 E GAG 50 NE AMA 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 10 WSW RTN 30 NNE TAD 20 S HSI 30 NNW BRL 20 ESE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 NE GBN 45 WNW PHX 65 ENE BLH 35 S IGM 30 E LAS 40 NW P38 60 WSW ELY 20 SW U31 65 N BIH 25 S BIH 40 SW BIH 60 WNW BIH 30 SW TVL 50 NNW LOL 45 SSE 4LW 25 E LMT 50 W MHS 20 E 4BK 25 SW EUG 10 WSW PDX 20 NW OLM UIL ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 45 NE BIL 40 NNE 81V 15 WNW PHP 20 NNE MHE 30 SSW RST 30 SW MKG 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 NW ESC 25 NNE RHI 45 SE DLH 25 WNW HIB 20 WNW INL ...CONT... HUL 15 N BGR 10 SE PSF 15 N AVP 20 E CMH 30 S HUF 10 E BLV 40 E SGF 40 E HRO 15 SE POF 35 E MDH 45 NE SDF 20 S CRW 20 ENE CHO 15 NW NHK WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT 25 S GNT 40 SSE FMN 10 WSW CEZ 65 S 4BL 55 NE INW 35 NE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BWD 50 N ADM 50 ENE OKC 25 ESE CSM 30 NW CDS 10 E PVW 10 ESE LBB 55 NE BGS 25 NW BWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO NWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS INTENSE VORTICITY MAX OVER SERN ONTARIO EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER WRN QUEBEC. A BROAD BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES...WITH EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...PRIOR TO LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SERN QUEBEC SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT OCCLUDES OVER WRN QUEBEC LATER TODAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND INTO CNTRL KS AT THIS TIME. ...NWRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL AID IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO NY AND PORTIONS OF NWRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG. FARTHER SW OVER THE OH VALLEY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REGION OF STRONG ASCENT RAPIDLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS / PER VWP/PROFILER NETWORKS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS/. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL OH VALLEY NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. WHILE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER QUEBEC...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE MAY LOCALLY BACK SURFACE WINDS AS FAR S AS NRN UPSTATE NY INTO NRN VT. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS KS INTO SERN CO AND NWRN OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY ERODE CAP TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION LIKELY BEING THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SWD/SWWD-PROPAGATING MCS WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS...NWRN OK AND NERN NM THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PACIFIC NW... ENHANCED UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT RANGE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES TODAY. ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLATED STRONG WINDS/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR W AS ERN WA/NERN ORE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES PER 12Z SPOKANE SOUNDING. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS NEWD...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOUGH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...12Z LCH SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 3KM AGL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 16:34:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 11:34:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406241634.i5OGYU203400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241632 SWODY1 SPC AC 241630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 25 NW LEB 30 NW IPT 15 NNW ZZV 15 SE STL 50 SSE OJC 40 ESE P28 60 SSW GAG 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 25 NW RTN 25 W LHX 30 WNW HLC 35 W PIA 50 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BPT 30 SSW ESF 30 W JAN 35 NNE MEI 30 WSW SEM 30 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT 25 S GNT 15 NE DRO 30 W MTJ 25 NW 4BL 55 NE INW 35 NE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 40 NE SHR 35 SE RAP 55 WSW YKN 20 E ALO 25 SSE MKE 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE APN 40 WNW TVC 30 SW IMT 60 WSW IWD 25 SSE BJI 40 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MWL 50 ESE OKC 45 W TUL 25 ESE END 20 N CSM 10 ESE CDS 70 NW ABI 45 WNW MWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CAR 20 NNW PWM 30 SSW ABE 25 WNW HGR 45 E LUK 55 SE LUK 30 SE HTS 40 ENE SSU 20 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 25 ENE EED 60 WSW ELY 45 SSE 4LW 25 NNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 30 NE CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF LA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MORNING MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS SEVERE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER OUTLOOKS...THOUGH ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST APPEARS WARRANTED. PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS TIED TO INTENSE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE NRN U.S./GREAT LAKES TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... MOST INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN CANADA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN IND/NRN OH AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP WITH H5 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AOB -12C. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AID IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IN/NRN OH AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN MI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED SEWD ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. MEAN WINDS/SHEAR VECTORS WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY AND ACT TO INHIBIT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER IT APPEARS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTHEAST...STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE LOWER LAKES AND PROGRESS EWD INTO WRN NY AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE OVER THIS AREA WITH SBCAPES AOB 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ADDED INFLUENCE FROM TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN CANADA SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO SMALL LINES. HOWEVER... STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FAIL TO ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER LINE. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... APPEARS COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW FAVOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/...DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SWD MOVING DOWNBURST CLUSTER SPREADING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS SWRN KS/SERN CO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES AND POSSIBLY NWRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NERN KS... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE LIMITED ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...UPPER TX/LA COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS AND SPREAD ENEWD. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1404 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION./ ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM SERN CO NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 20:05:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 15:05:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406242005.i5OK5Q207670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242000 SWODY1 SPC AC 241959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML ALB 40 NNE CXY ZZV ALN ICT 40 ESE P28 60 SSW GAG 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 25 NW RTN 50 NNW LAA 10 WSW GLD 25 NW CNK STJ IRK BMI FWA 10 ESE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 7R4 30 NW MCB 40 WSW TCL 15 SSE ANB 15 SW LGC TOI 30 NE CEW 25 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 25 ENE EED DRA 10 WNW TVL MHS MFR PDX 35 NNE CLM ...CONT... 65 NW HVR HVR REJ MHN LBF OTM SBN MTC ...CONT... 40 NNE CAR 20 NNW PWM 30 SSW ABE 25 WNW HGR LUK MVN TBN 30 ESE CNU 20 N CSM CDS 70 NNW ABI 40 WNW MWL ADM 20 NW MKO 25 SSE SGF POF CKV LOZ SHD 10 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE APN 40 WNW TVC 30 SW IMT 60 WSW IWD 25 SSE BJI 40 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES.... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA...MUCH AS INDICATED BY LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING ALONG FRONT SURGING INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR BROKEN NARROW SQUALL LINE. SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR FRONT/LAKE BREEZES FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN OHIO. DEW POINTS ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING TO NEAR 60F IN A NARROW BAND...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER 80S...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG BEFORE 25/00Z. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARILY THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... RATHER SHARP SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ABOVE INVERSION LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH BROKEN NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT ...FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DOWNBURSTS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED IN THE 24/21-23Z TIME FRAME...AND VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST TIL AROUND 25/02Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES... INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN CONFLUENT LOW/MID -LEVEL FLOW REGIME...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW FROM IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF BROAD TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS SUPPORTING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MOIST TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION...BELT OF MODERATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID EVENING HOURS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 00:57:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406250057.i5P0vv209300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250055 SWODY1 SPC AC 250053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 35 WNW ALB 25 NNW AVP 15 NNW CXY LUK 35 NNW EVV 40 SW SZL 25 NW CNU 10 SSW ICT 40 N CSM 25 NNE CDS 25 NNW PVW 20 N CVS 45 SE LVS 35 NNE LVS 45 SE ALS 50 WSW COS 10 W COS 25 NNE TAD 20 E EHA 25 SW DDC 35 N RSL 35 ENE CNK 15 E STJ 45 ENE UIN 50 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FLG SOW 25 S GNT 40 WNW 4SL CEZ 25 SSW 4BL 25 ENE BCE 40 SSE CDC FLG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 60 E BLH 15 NW EED 50 W LAS 40 NNW NID 25 NNE FAT 45 S TVL 20 NNW TVL 60 NNW SVE 30 E MFR 30 ESE PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE FCA 15 NNE LVM 10 S 81V 45 WNW AKO 40 E LIC 30 NNE STJ 50 SSE CGX 25 NE TOL ...CONT... 20 N HUL 15 NNW PWM 15 N BAF 25 S ABE 45 E MGW 30 S PKB 15 WSW CRW 35 WSW BKW PSK 25 S LYH 50 NE RWI 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 E ADM 45 NW MLC 45 NW FYV 25 SE UMN 45 W ARG 15 NNW ARG 25 ESE POF 30 SSE CGI 20 NNE CGI 50 NW CGI 55 SE VIH 25 WSW TBN 40 NNW JLN PNC 30 SW END 20 SE CSM 40 ESE CDS 75 S CDS 55 WNW ABI 40 WSW ABI 40 W BWD 45 SE BWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...OH/PA/NY... SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SAGS ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OH VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS (65KT AT 500MB BASED ON BUF RAOB) ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC MAY PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS FRONTAL SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... FARTHER WEST ALONG THE WELL DEFINED THERMAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS AROUND THE TX/OK PNHDLS...PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL STORMS EXIST FROM KS INTO NRN MO. WHILE SOME OF THE PNHDL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL SURGE INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER. LIFT ALONG FRONT AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL COULD SUSTAIN SEVERE STORM HAZARDS INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN OK. POST FRONTAL STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST... POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST...TN VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST/FL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD OUT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...A FEW STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ...ROCKIES/WEST... ABUNDANT MOUNTAIN STORMS NOTED FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OCCURRING IN WEAK SHEAR WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FROM SERN ID TO NERN NM. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND SEVERE WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BELT. GREATEST PROSPECT FOR MORE SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FROM SERN CO INTO NM THIS EVENING AS COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW/FRONTAL SURGE... SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 05:32:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 00:32:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406250532.i5P5WU207623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250529 SWODY1 SPC AC 250528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S P07 40 SE ONM 20 W ABQ 55 SW ALS GUC 25 WNW EGE 45 SE RKS 40 SE LND 30 ENE RIW 15 W CPR 30 NNE LAR 50 WSW SNY 20 SSE AKO 45 SE LIC 55 SSE LHX 25 SW DHT 20 W PVW 55 NNE BGS 40 W ABI 35 ESE SJT 40 NW HDO 65 WSW COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 20 NW FLO 45 ENE MCN 35 E CSG 20 NE MGM 25 S BHM 25 SSE HSV 20 NNW TYS 35 NW TRI 25 NE PKB 15 NW PSB 20 SW BGM 15 SSW ALB 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 20 N PHX 45 SSW PRC 55 SSE IGM 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH 20 NW TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 65 NNE MFR 40 W RDM 45 NW RDM 45 S DLS 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 40 SSE EPH 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 40 SE 81V 35 NE ANW 30 W OFK 30 SW LNK 25 ESE MHK 20 E ICT 25 NNW END 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 30 S ROC 20 S SYR 35 N GFL 25 NW MWN 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N PLN 40 NE ESC 35 E MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM AL/GA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST FROM WEST TX TO WY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING WITHIN THE ERN SECTOR OF THE BLOCK...FROM CNTRL CANADA...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...TO THE NORTHEAST. PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP VORTEX CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH MEAN FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WLYS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IMPULSE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN VA ACROSS ERN PA AND NRN NJ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM ID TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ...SOUTH/SRN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC... DESPITE MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...A BELT OF STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD ATOP A VERY MOIST AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM AL/GA AREA EARLY...TO NC/VA AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EAST. SEVERAL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS SURFACE LOW EVOLVES ACROSS ERN VA DURING THE EVENING. COINCIDENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO AID STORM INITIATION WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM WV PNHDL TO ERN PA AND NRN NJ. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SRH... A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ...SERN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND... AN AXIS OF PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING AT LEAST 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY FROM SERN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EITHER SPLITTING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES... COMPOSITE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE BACKED WELL INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NM NWWD ACROSS CO AND WY. ONCE AGAIN...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTENSIFY AS GREATER DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN MOIST/FRONTAL AXIS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUSTAIN/ENHANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH/FL... WEAKLY CAPPED TROPICAL AIRMASS AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTMS. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST ACROSS SRN FL WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG HEATING. NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL ARE LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE FRONTS ACROSS FL WHILE A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES... MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM ID INTO NRN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 13:01:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 08:01:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251302.i5PD2p221939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251259 SWODY1 SPC AC 251257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG GSB SOP GSO CHO HGR CXY MSV BAF PVD 20 ESE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 25 NW RUT 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N TVC 55 ENE GRB 25 NW GRB 40 ENE AUW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 45 NW RDM 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NC PIEDMONT NEWD TO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES WILL REMAIN STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICES CENTERED OVER SERN HUDSON BAY/NWRN QUE REGION...AND OVER NERN PACIFIC AS PART OF OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS A VERY STABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND AS SUCH SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD. SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO ORBIT HUDSON BAY VORTEX...IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. BROAD/WEAK BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX. EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MS -- SHOULD STRETCH ITS VORTICITY FIELD AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...AMIDST CONFLUENT FLOW. AT SFC...OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN NY...WRN PA AND OH VALLEY IS FCST TO SAG SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH PERIOD. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ALONG THIS FRONT OVER TIDEWATER AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY -- POSSIBLY IN FORM OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND BAROCLINIC ATTACHMENT OF WEAK PREFRONTAL LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN VA. ...NERN CONUS... MOST MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAIN OF SMALL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN N OF SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR JUST S/SE OF FRONT -- AND NEAR SRN RIM OF STRONGER BELT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. EXPECT FAVORABLE INSOLATION DURING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON -- AFTER STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS ERODE WHERE NOW PRESENT...AND AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER TN VALLEY AREA. ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...DECREASING WITH NWD/NEWD EXTENT. KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N-E OF SFC LOW. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 35-45 KT MOST AREAS. ...FL... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY -- WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS THEN DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SEASONALLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA -- 7-8 DEG C/KM IN LOW-MIDLEVELS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES APCHG 4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEARS WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND UNUSUAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH ENOUGH WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT HIGH TERRAIN FROM W TX TO NRN ROCKIES...MAINLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER TERRAIN IS MOST STRONGLY HEATED. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF IDEAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY OVER NRN ROCKIES INVOF WRN MT AND ID. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SRN NM TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS ID/WRN MT. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER MOST OF THIS SWATH...GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER RIDGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER WY TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL AND WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 13:01:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 08:01:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251303.i5PD3v222370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251259 SWODY1 SPC AC 251257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG GSB SOP GSO CHO HGR CXY MSV BAF PVD 20 ESE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 25 NW RUT 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N TVC 55 ENE GRB 25 NW GRB 40 ENE AUW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 45 NW RDM 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NC PIEDMONT NEWD TO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES WILL REMAIN STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICES CENTERED OVER SERN HUDSON BAY/NWRN QUE REGION...AND OVER NERN PACIFIC AS PART OF OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS A VERY STABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND AS SUCH SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD. SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO ORBIT HUDSON BAY VORTEX...IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. BROAD/WEAK BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX. EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MS -- SHOULD STRETCH ITS VORTICITY FIELD AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...AMIDST CONFLUENT FLOW. AT SFC...OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN NY...WRN PA AND OH VALLEY IS FCST TO SAG SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH PERIOD. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ALONG THIS FRONT OVER TIDEWATER AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY -- POSSIBLY IN FORM OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND BAROCLINIC ATTACHMENT OF WEAK PREFRONTAL LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN VA. ...NERN CONUS... MOST MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAIN OF SMALL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN N OF SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR JUST S/SE OF FRONT -- AND NEAR SRN RIM OF STRONGER BELT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. EXPECT FAVORABLE INSOLATION DURING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON -- AFTER STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS ERODE WHERE NOW PRESENT...AND AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER TN VALLEY AREA. ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...DECREASING WITH NWD/NEWD EXTENT. KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N-E OF SFC LOW. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 35-45 KT MOST AREAS. ...FL... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY -- WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS THEN DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SEASONALLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA -- 7-8 DEG C/KM IN LOW-MIDLEVELS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES APCHG 4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEARS WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND UNUSUAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH ENOUGH WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT HIGH TERRAIN FROM W TX TO NRN ROCKIES...MAINLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER TERRAIN IS MOST STRONGLY HEATED. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF IDEAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY OVER NRN ROCKIES INVOF WRN MT AND ID. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SRN NM TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS ID/WRN MT. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER MOST OF THIS SWATH...GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER RIDGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER WY TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL AND WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 16:29:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 11:29:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251629.i5PGTog28718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251627 SWODY1 SPC AC 251625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 30 SW CAE 30 N AHN 30 SSE TYS PSK 10 W HGR 40 SE IPT 25 SSW ALB 25 NE PSF 15 ENE BAF 10 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 20 N PHX 45 SSW PRC 55 SSE IGM 25 ENE LAS 40 WNW P38 60 NE TPH 45 NW WMC 55 NE 4LW 45 WSW BNO 45 SW PDT 25 NW ALW 30 SW EPH 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 15 SE BUF 20 N SYR 25 ESE SLK 30 W BML 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 ENE TVC 25 E MTW 25 NW OSH 40 ENE AUW 10 NW IMT 30 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SW NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS... FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE/WEAK LAPSE RATES IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF VA...WITH SUBSEQUENT CLOUDS FURTHER INHIBITING HEATING WITHIN THIS PLUME TODAY. HOWEVER NORTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...HEATING WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE DELMARVA NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND /SHOULD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER SERN NY...CT AND WRN MA/. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S INTO NRN MD/SERN PA...WITH FURTHER HEATING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG NRN EDGE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...SUGGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN PA/SRN NY BY THE MID AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE WEAK LAPSE RATES. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL VA...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODEST FROM ERN PA INTO NEW ENGLAND AS AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE OVERSPREAD BY 40 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NRN VA/MD BY THE MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WEAK SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN PLACE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND AN INCREASED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED TO INSTABILITY...WITH SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW STABILIZING PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SECTIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SRN STREAM WAVES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT TODAY. HERE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN BELT OF 40-45 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES. ...FL... UNSEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL BOOST CAPES INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY TODAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...DEGREE OF HEATING /DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE MID AFTERNOON/ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SUPPORT AREAS OR CLUSTERS OF RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM MICROBURSTS...WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIA/EYW/XMR INDICATING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DRY MID LEVELS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE VERTICAL THETA-E PLOTS FOR ENHANCED DOWNBURSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED A BIT TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR MUCH INSTABILITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RATHER MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT /H5 WINDS FROM 20-30 KT/. EXPECT A FEW CLUSTERS OR AREAS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL COVERAGE/SEVERITY APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL FOR SLIGHT RISK OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA ATTM AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 19:58:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 14:58:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251958.i5PJwwg25541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251956 SWODY1 SPC AC 251954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE EWN 30 SW FLO 25 SW CAE 25 WSW AND 20 SE AVL 35 E HKY 35 SSW ROA 20 E SSU 40 S EKN 30 SE PSB 25 S ALB 15 SW EEN 25 NE ORH 15 ENE BDL JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 20 W HDO 10 NNE SAT AUS 55 NNW VCT 35 WSW NIR 45 SSW ALI 20 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 50 NE GTF 15 SSW LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 S HSI 45 N DDC 35 SSW LBL 20 ESE AMA 55 SSE CDS 35 WNW MLC 25 E MKO 30 SW HRO 15 NE UNO MDH 10 SW MIE 10 SSW ERI 15 SE BUF 20 N SYR 25 ESE SLK 30 W BML 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 ENE TVC 25 E MTW 25 NW OSH 40 ENE AUW 10 NW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 65 SW SOW 55 ESE PRC 15 SSW PRC 40 SE IGM 40 ENE LAS 40 WNW P38 55 NNE TPH 45 NW WMC 65 ENE 4LW 35 NW BNO 35 NW PDT 30 SSE YKM 50 ESE SEA 40 E SEA 60 NE SEA 65 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER NJ/PA/VA RIDGE TOPS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM WRN MA INTO CNTRL PA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSING NWD INTO THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. RESULTANT MLCAPES WERE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. LIMITING FACTORS TO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY 18Z STERLING RAOB. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER AND INCREASE AS UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER OH VLY SWINGS EWD. GIVEN INCREASING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE MODEST WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. SLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SERN NEW ENGLAND. ...SERN VA AND THE CAROLINAS... PERSISTENT SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER OVER SERN VA WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 21Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS CLUSTER EXTENDS WWD INTO NRN NC. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO...THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...RESULTING IN WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR. ...FL... BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW...WILL LIKELY COLLIDE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MORNING RAOBS SHOW MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C AND GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS SHOULD RESULT. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. ...S TX... AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS S TX...BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE RIO GRANDE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS WEST OF SAN ANTONIO APPEAR TO BE GENERATING A COLD POOL. THIS OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO PARTS OF S TX/THERMAL RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DESPITE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...A SMALL AREA OF S TX MAY EXPERIENCE PULSE SEVERE TSTMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. NONETHELESS...FAVORED NWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO STRONGER TSTM CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 00:56:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 19:56:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406260056.i5Q0umg01156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260054 SWODY1 SPC AC 260052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MFE 35 S CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MLB 10 WSW FMY ...CONT... 20 S MOB 55 S SEM 25 NE DHN 50 SSW AGS 15 W CAE 15 ESE CLT 20 SE GSO 20 ENE RDU 25 NNE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 35 S PRC 40 NNE LAS 60 N DRA 15 NNE TPH 40 NE BIH 65 ESE BIH 40 N NID 30 NW NID 45 E FAT 55 S TVL 35 WNW TVL 45 WNW RNO 15 NNE RNO 10 WNW NFL 25 ESE LOL 30 WSW BNO 60 SSW PDT 20 SE EAT 50 E BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 85 SSW GGW 15 NE SHR 40 SSE 81V 50 NW VTN 25 NNE ANW 55 NNE BUB 35 N GRI 45 SSW EAR 55 S HLC 40 N GAG 30 NE CSM 15 SW OKC 30 SSE MKO 35 SSW HRO 25 SSW PAH 15 WSW SDF 25 SW HLG 25 SE PSB 30 N AVP 15 E MPV 30 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SOUTH TX... ...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST... A WAVE TRAIN OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A SERIES OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN TX...ENEWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST/WRN FL PNHDL...AND NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WAS NOTED WITH THE ARC OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND COUPLED WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KT PER AREA VWP DATA...SEVERE WIND/BRIEF TORNADO HAZARDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS ACROSS NRN GA. DIVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS CONTINUING TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. BROKEN LINE OF CELLS MOVING INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN SC/SERN NC WILL POSE GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. OVER TX...WIDESPREAD MULTICELL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS. ONE CLUSTER WAS NORTH OF I10 AND BETWEEN I35 AND I45...THE OTHER CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SERN TX GULF COAST. LIMITED SHEAR AND WEAK BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION INCREASES. GREATEST CHANCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL REPORT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX. ...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC... CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALSO EFFECTIVELY UTILIZED MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS NEAR WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MOST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY WIND/HAIL HAZARD WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. ...ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND/OR WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA OF THE WEST FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS IN PAST DAYS...THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN. OVER SERN WY/NERN CO...GREATER SHEAR AND INCREASING HIGH PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN AN MCS...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR HAIL...INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY LONGER-LIVED SYSTEM MAY BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM WHERE MODEST LOW LEVEL AND POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY FUEL A SMALL MCS DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE TX PNHDL. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 05:58:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 00:58:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406260558.i5Q5wIg23138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260556 SWODY1 SPC AC 260554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 25 ENE MSO 55 SSW 3DU 20 WNW 27U 80 NNE BOI 25 ESE BKE 30 ESE PDT 50 NNW ALW 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WSW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 15 NW TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL 15 SSW RNO 15 NW LOL 65 E 4LW 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK 20 SSE DLH 30 NW LSE 30 WSW OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 20 E FSM 45 SSW JBR 25 ESE MKL 35 NW CSV 30 NE TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 NNW PSF 25 NE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK WILL AGAIN BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW OF MODEST INTENSITY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. ANOTHER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY DIGGING SWD OVER ALBERTA AND ON THE ERN FLANK OF OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS...WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NEWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA/NWRN WA TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES. THE ALBERTA SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS INLAND OVER ERN WA/NERN ORE. IN THE SOUTH...WEAK/RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE TN VALLEY WWD TO SRN OK/NRN TX...AND THEN W/NWWD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FL. A BELT OF STRONGER SWLY/WLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN BROAD TROUGH OVER TX AND ERN GULF/FL UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH TODAY. ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES... MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SHEAR. TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY BE GREATER THAN PAST FEW DAYS GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. POCKETS OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING BOTH MICROBURST WINDS AND HAIL. ...GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY/FL... MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS ERN TX WILL LIKELY PROMOTE/MAINTAIN NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVITY. LASTLY...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZES WILL LEAD TO VIGOROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL. ALMOST ALL OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL STORMS...WILL OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL BANDS MAY EVOLVE TO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERALL...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO FRONT RANGE... OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25KT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL DOMINATE. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INTENSIFYING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE FORM UPSLOPE FLOW AND LEE TROUGH WILL COEXIST WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN CO AND NERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND PRODUCE A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS. OTHERWISE...BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 12:50:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 07:50:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261250.i5QCohg16846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261247 SWODY1 SPC AC 261245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 15 NNW HLN 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP BVO 10 ESE FSM MKL TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 SW PSF 30 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN WA...NRN ID...NERN ORE...WRN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY STABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM...WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER NWRN NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC. ANCHORING THIS BLOCK IS STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER NWRN CANADA...WITH RIDGE SSEWD ACROSS ID TO NWRN MEX. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVER S-CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER AND OFFSHORE WA COAST. SASK/ALTA TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE SWD TOWAD NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE REGION...WHILE BROAD/WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM TIDEWATER REGION WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NC...UT WILL ACT AS BOTH FOCUS AND EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND FOR SUNTROPICAL/GULF AIR MASS AND GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER DIXIE. ...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME AGGREGATING INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR BANDS -- ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BOTH OVER DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN OF ROCKIES...AND IN REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG ERN FLANK OF MTNS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL. A FEW NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER BASINS/VALLEYS AND RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST THERMAL FORCING AND VERTICAL STRETCHING OF BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE GIVEN EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS RELATED TO RECENT PRECIP. INSABILITY ALOFT -- ALREADY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ON WRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH APCHG NRN MT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- I.E. 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM -- AND SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST...ENOUGH COVERAGE OF COVNECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...GULF COAST STATES... CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE W-CENTRAL LA COAST MAY PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR TWO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOTU AFTERNOONH AND EVENING...INITIALLY INVOF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVEREGNCE AND STORM SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION EWD OVER LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS JUXTAPOSED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT NE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX...SFC DW POINTS 70S F...AND FAVORABE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...HWOEVER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE LIKELY...PRECLUDING OUTLOOK OF WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ...FL... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNONO INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS...AUGMETNED LOCALLY BY INTERACTIONS OF OUTFLOW AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGIGN WET MICROBURSTS. GIVEN WEAK AMBIENT FLOW WITH SLY LOW-MIDLEVEL COMPONENT...BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD YIELD CONVECTION TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY INTERSECT OVER SOME PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL FL. MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED TBW RAOB. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 12:54:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 07:54:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261255.i5QCt1g18314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261252 SWODY1 SPC AC 261251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 15 NNW HLN 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP BVO 10 ESE FSM MKL TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 SW PSF 30 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN WA...NRN ID...NERN ORE...WRN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY STABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM...WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER NWRN NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC. ANCHORING THIS BLOCK IS STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER NWRN CANADA...WITH RIDGE SSEWD ACROSS ID TO NWRN MEX. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVER S-CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER AND OFFSHORE WA COAST. SASK/ALTA TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE SWD TOWARD NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE REGION...WHILE BROAD/WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM TIDEWATER REGION WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NC...BUT WILL ACT AS BOTH FOCUS AND EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND FOR SUBTROPICAL/GULF AIR MASS AND GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER DIXIE. ...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME AGGREGATING INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR BANDS -- ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BOTH OVER DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN OF ROCKIES...AND IN REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG ERN FLANK OF MTNS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL. A FEW NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER BASINS/VALLEYS AND RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST THERMAL FORCING AND VERTICAL STRETCHING OF BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE GIVEN EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS RELATED TO RECENT PRECIP. INSTABILITY ALOFT -- ALREADY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ON WRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH APCHG NRN MT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- I.E. 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM -- AND SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST...ENOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...GULF COAST STATES... CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE W-CENTRAL LA COAST MAY PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR TWO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INITIALLY INVOF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVERGENCE AND STORM SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION EWD OVER LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS JUXTAPOSED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT NE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX...SFC DEW POINTS 70S F...AND FAVORABLE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE LIKELY...PRECLUDING OUTLOOK OF WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ...FL... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS...AUGMENTED LOCALLY BY INTERACTIONS OF OUTFLOW AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICRO BURSTS. GIVEN WEAK AMBIENT FLOW WITH SLY LOW-MIDLEVEL COMPONENT...BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD YIELD CONVECTION TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY INTERSECT OVER SOME PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL FL. MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED BBW RAOB. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 16:36:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 11:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261636.i5QGavg21806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261634 SWODY1 SPC AC 261632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 40 NE MSO 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 65 NW 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE RTN 15 W COS 10 ESE LAR 40 WNW BFF 20 SSE SNY 25 W GCK 10 S LBL 30 E DHT 30 SE RTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 25 NE CTY 30 E PFN 30 NNW PFN 20 N DHN 60 SSE MCN 15 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 20 NE DLS 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP 15 W JLN 25 S SGF 30 S PAH 15 NW TRI 15 ESE DCA 10 SSW PHL 10 SSE AVP 30 SW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL AND SRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERMOUNTAIN PAC NW... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CO AND ERN WY THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF MID 50SF SURFACE DEW POINTS. THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...IT WILL REMAIN NWLY AND ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY FORM BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN CO/FAR WRN KS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME RATHER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY FORMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY DRIFTS SEWD. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. ...PAC NW INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOW BE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. APPEARS SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS WA LATER TODAY...AND INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO ERN WA AND PARTS OF ID. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OTX REMAINED FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS SUPPORTS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN INTO N-CENTRAL WA. GIVEN FURTHER HEATING...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE AND LATER STORMS INTO THE MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GA/SRN SC COAST... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA TODAY...WHERE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF OLD SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W OVER SOUTH GA. 12Z SOUNDING FROM JAX INDICATES SOME DRYING ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY STORM ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SERN AL...WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY FURTHER INCREASE AND RIDE ENEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. 25-30 KT OF WSWLY FLOW AT 3-6 KM / EVIDENT ON VWPS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL / SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. ...ERN TX... UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...WITH CLEARING/DRY SLOT SUPPORTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND DRY SLOT SHOULD THEREFORE FILL IN WITH CONVECTION QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED UNDER -10C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WV WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND ISOLATED. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 19:42:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 14:42:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261942.i5QJgIg12653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261937 SWODY1 SPC AC 261935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 40 NE MSO 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 65 NW 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GCK 40 SSE LBL 20 SE DHT 45 WNW TCC 30 N LVS 35 SW PUB 20 WSW COS 15 W CYS 40 WNW BFF 20 SSE SNY 15 W GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 30 NNE CTY 35 N AQQ 15 SSE PNS 30 SW MOB 35 NW MOB 55 SE MEI 10 SW MGM 60 SSE MCN 40 WSW CHS 15 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 35 WNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 30 S TPH 45 S BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 20 NE DLS 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP 15 W JLN 25 S SGF 30 S PAH 15 NW TRI 15 ESE DCA 10 SSW PHL 10 SSE AVP 30 SW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO THE SERN STATES... ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... RIVERTON VWP AND MEDICINE BOW PROFILER DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CNTRL WY. SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CO AND THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS 30-40 KTS IN THE 3-4KM RANGE. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS MOVING ACROSS CO/SERN WY...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BRIEF TSTM ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED AND SINCE MEAN FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NWLY WITH TIME...A FEW LINE SEGMENTS MAY SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE MORNING SPEED MAX THAT EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF PAC BASIN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WITH LI/S AROUND MINUS 3C EXTENDING FROM NERN WA INTO ERN ORE AND ID. THOUGH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS...NEXT DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY APPROACHING WRN ORE AND WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ATOP INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SERN STATES... SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX HAS BEEN MOVING ENEWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA AND WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE COAST BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND BRUNSWICK. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. OTHER TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SERN LA AND MAY AFFECT AREAS OF SRN AL THROUGH EVENING. ...PARTS OF TX/SRN OK... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CNTRL TX. MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NRN TX. THE ENTIRE REGION RESIDES IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAIN IMPACTS OF THE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 04:52:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 23:52:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406270452.i5R4qYK11856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270449 SWODY1 SPC AC 270448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE GDP 35 N ELP 15 WNW ONM 50 SSE ALS 30 ENE ALS 35 SW 4FC 40 NNW 4FC 30 S LAR 20 SSE CYS 40 S IML 55 SE GLD 25 SW GCK 35 SE DHT 40 SSE CVS 25 SSE INK 50 SSE GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 50 SSE GTF 50 SE BIL 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 15 WSW 9V9 40 NW HON 55 ENE ABR 10 NNW AXN CWA 35 S MBL 25 NW AZO 35 WSW FWA 25 N UIN 35 ENE SZL 20 NNW SGF 40 ESE HRO 45 SW LOZ 15 NNE TRI 10 E ECG ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 45 SSW GCN 25 WSW CDC 35 S ELY 20 S U31 60 NW BIH 50 E SCK 55 SE RBL 10 SE MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EPM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW OVER TX IS SHEARED ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. IN THE WEST...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY MONDAY. DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST OF WHERE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS MAY DEVELOP. WHILE MOST FOCUSED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EJECTING SRN STREAM IMPULSE ACROSS TX...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY. STRONGEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... SITUATION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AND CO INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. AFTER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL BE HEATED BY STRONG SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS IN PAST DAYS...ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/LEE TROUGHING...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT REMAIN POORLY DEFINED. MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL S/SELY FLOW TOPPED BY 20-25KT N/NWLY WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ACQUIRE GREATER ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY. WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. ...GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THESE AREAS IS SIMILAR TO SRN ROCKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLLAPSING PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS. ...SOUTH... BELT OF STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALIGNED WITH RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF EJECTING TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. RICH MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD FUEL A FEW STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS WHICH MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING LINES AS IN PAST DAYS. MESOSCALE FEATURES YET TO FORM MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TARGET HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF FL. ...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST... OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS KS...AND WEAK COLD FRONT SPREADING ACROSS NEB/IA/IL...WILL BE PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS NEB/KS AREAS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO POCKETS OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR WHILE WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER IA/IL. OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A FEW HAIL AND WIND EVENTS BUT ANTICIPATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 12:58:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 07:58:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406271258.i5RCwZK09210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271256 SWODY1 SPC AC 271254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE GDP 35 N ELP 35 NNE ONM 45 NNW LVS 30 WNW TAD 35 SW 4FC 40 NNW 4FC 30 S LAR CYS 25 SSW SNY 40 WNW GLD 15 E LAA 10 SE CAO 35 SSE CVS INK 50 SSE GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 NNE TUS 45 SSW GCN 25 WSW CDC 35 S ELY 20 S U31 60 NW BIH 50 E SCK 55 SE RBL MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 NNE FCA 50 SSE GTF 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 9V9 55 ENE ABR 55 SW IWD 30 SSE IMT HTL ARB 45 WSW FWA 20 NNE UIN 40 SE IRK VIH 35 SSW UNO 10 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EPM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO/NM AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... RATHER STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONES CENTERED OVER WRN QUE AND BC COAST...WRN CANADA ANTICYCLONE...AND MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THAT HIGH SSEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA INTO NWRN MEX. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD OVER SD/SRN MN AND IA BY EVENING...THEN EXTEND FROM SERN WI TO NWRN MO BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SRN SD -- IS FCST TO MOVE SWD/SEWD ACROSS IA/NEB...REACHING LM...NWRN IL...CENTRAL MO AND NWRN OK BY 28/12Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW ANALYZED FROM SWRN KS LOW ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THEN SEWD OVER WRN AR. MEANWHILE...ERN PORTION OF LATTER FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER FROM CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS NRN AL/MS INTO AR. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY -- FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER AREAS OF ADJACENT PLAINS RIDGES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHAT WINDS THERE ARE WILL POSSESS PREDOMINANT ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. RESULTANT ASCENT OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ONTO DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD OVERCOME CIN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AND LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THOUGH SMALL 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 20-30 KT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO EVENING BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS. ...CENTRAL LOW PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS...PERHAPS REACHING WRN MO AND/OR NWRN OK. BROAD AREA OF NON-SEVERE TSTMS OBSERVED ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...PRIMARILY N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. AS AIR MASS NEAR FRONT DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WILL BECOME MORE SFC-BASED...WITH 60S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. ETA...SPECTRAL AND RUC MODELS ALL SHIFT/EVOLVE CONVECTIVE PRECIP SWD AND EWD ACROSS MORE OF KS TODAY...THOUGH WITH SOME VARIATION IN DETAILS. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATED MCV OVER SWRN KS...WHICH MAY DRIFT EWD TODAY TOWARD THIS AREA AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN S OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BELT AROUND CANADIAN LOW. AS SUCH...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SMALL...HOWEVER A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...PARTICULARLY INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL RISK OUTLOOK. ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERIOR NW... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY OVER HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN -- WITH SOME CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY EVENING. ELEVATED MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG - OBSERVED IN 12Z OTX RAOB - SHOULD BECOME SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AS SFC HEATING AND AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS REACHING SFC WITH MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. ...GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF PERIOD...PRESENTLY OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS SE TX BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SWATH FROM CENTRAL TX TO GA AND FL. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...DIURNAL HEATING AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IN MANY AREAS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF AROUND 15-25 KT IS FCST BETWEEN ABOUT 30N AND FRONTAL ZONE...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO A FEW LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DOWNBURST WINDS CAPABLE OF DAMAGE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR FOCUSED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL RISK IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN MORE CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 17:02:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 12:02:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406271702.i5RH2KK17193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271659 SWODY1 SPC AC 271657 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 45 NNW ALM 20 SW SAF 45 SSE ALS 15 E TAD 40 WSW EHA 45 E CVS 25 NW MAF 80 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW YUM 15 NNW BLH 45 WNW IGM 15 SSW P38 65 SW ELY 40 ENE BIH 40 SSE BIH 40 NNW NID 50 N BFL 25 W FAT 20 SE SCK 55 NNW SAC 30 WSW MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE GTF 30 SSE GCC 35 NE SNY 10 SW BBW 40 NE VTN 50 SW MBG 45 SSE P24 60 NW MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW APN 15 NW ARB 20 W FWA 20 SSE CMI 25 WNW STL 35 ESE VIH 25 ESE POF CKV 40 SE LOZ DAN 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 WNW EPM 15 SE BML 20 NE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... VORTEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN QUEBEC SENDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLATEAU AS WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS SRN CA INTO WRN AZ. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM SERN TX ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND NRN AL INTO SERN NC. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS NM AND EXTREME W TX... FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO ERN CO. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5- 8.0C/KM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HAIL AND SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG/JUST S OF THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG. THIS FIRST CLUSTER OVER SERN MS IS WORKING WITHIN EWD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND HAS DEVELOPED A RAIN-COOLED PUSH TO THE ACTIVITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MESOSCALE ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE. FARTHER W...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUES ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND THE ACTIVITY. ...SERN PARTS OF AZ... MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WERE NOTED INDICATING THE THREAT OF STRONG MICROBURST WINDS WITH LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ...NRN PLATEAU... AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SE-NW ACROSS WRN MT. SBCAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 19:38:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 14:38:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406271938.i5RJcvK01318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271934 SWODY1 SPC AC 271932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 45 NNW ALM 20 SW SAF 45 SSE ALS 20 SSW TAD 25 WNW CAO 30 ENE CVS 40 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE AYS 25 S MGR 35 E MSY BTR 30 NW JAN 15 WNW TCL 25 SW AHN 60 WNW SAV 40 NNE AYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW YUM 15 NNW BLH 35 NW EED 55 ESE BIH 45 SE BIH 40 NNW NID 50 N BFL 25 W FAT 20 SE SCK 55 NNW SAC 30 WSW MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE GTF 30 SSE GCC 35 NE SNY 10 SW BBW 40 NE VTN 50 SW MBG 45 SSE P24 60 NW MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW APN 15 NW ARB 20 W FWA 20 SSE CMI 25 WNW STL 35 ESE VIH 25 ESE POF CKV 40 SE LOZ DAN 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 WNW EPM 15 SE BML 20 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE VRB 20 ENE EYW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP SOUTH... KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ENEWD 30-35 KTS FROM SRN LA EWD INTO PARTS OF GA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WSWLY H85-7 FLOW OF 30-40 KTS IS BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL PROFILER/VWP SITES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING TX UPPER TROUGH. AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TSTMS IS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND/APPROACHING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION. ACROSS CNTRL FL...TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZES. H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW MINUS 8C CONTINUE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM. THESE STORMS...AND OTHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN NM...WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND GENERALLY PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT FROM SERN KS TO THE TX PNHDL. AGAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND ONLY ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW/GREAT BASIN... UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT GIVEN MORE NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION TO UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH. THUS...WIDESPREAD ACCAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN REGION. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS CAN ORGANIZE...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF ID/WRN MT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 00:56:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 19:56:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406280056.i5S0unK26476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280054 SWODY1 SPC AC 280052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ALM 40 SSE ONM 30 WNW 4CR 45 E ABQ 25 NNE TCC 10 SE CAO 25 NE DHT 25 NNE AMA PVW 10 NW HOB 20 W CNM 20 SW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 45 ESE IGM 50 SW LAS 30 E MER SAC 40 SSE MHS LMT 20 ESE PDT PUW FCA 45 S CTB 40 WNW 3HT 40 W SHR DGW AKO 45 WSW GLD 50 NNW GCK SLN MKC JEF 20 WSW CGI 60 N MSL 20 ENE CHA HKY 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 30 SSE VRB 60 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HOT 40 NW HOT 15 NNE PGO 15 S ADM 50 SSE CDS 65 ESE LBB 30 E BGS SJT 50 NE JCT ACT 25 NNW TYR 25 WSW HOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW AXN 35 ESE BRD 25 SSW IWD 30 SSW IMT 10 N MTW 25 S MKE 25 WSW MMO 10 E BRL 50 NW LWD 30 SSE SUX 20 NE BKX 50 WSW AXN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOW WAS MOVING SEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH PORTIONS OF NERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS RESULTING IN 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. REFERENCE WW 526. ...SERN GA AND NERN FL PANHANDLE... FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 35 KT THROUGH THE AREA...AND IF LINE MAINTAINS CURRENT MOTION...IT WOULD REACH SERN GA COAST 04-05Z. VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA SHOW WLY FLOW AT 30 KT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND A SEVERE GUST OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES THIS EVENING...SO ONLY A 5% WIND PROBABILITY REMAINS FOR THE AREA. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CONVECTION IN NV EARLIER TODAY DEVELOPED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SURGED NWD INTO SERN OR AND SRN ID. DESPITE THE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP LAPSE AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL UNTIL AROUND 04Z...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. OTHER VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..IMY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 05:56:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 00:56:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406280556.i5S5uLK10196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280553 SWODY1 SPC AC 280551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 30 NNE MOB 35 W LUL 25 NW JAN 50 WSW CBM 40 SW HSV 25 SE CHA 15 WNW AND 30 N CAE 35 ENE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CAO 20 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 30 SW DEN 15 NE LAR 45 N CYS 25 SW BFF 40 WSW IML 50 NE LAA 40 S LAA 50 N CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 20 NNW BUB 45 ENE DDC 20 ENE P28 30 ESE CNU 45 W TBN 10 SW STL 10 W MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 35 WSW MSS 50 SSW SLK 35 N POU 20 W ISP ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 40 W SAD 35 S FLG 45 ENE IGM 45 WSW SGU 55 NNW P38 65 NE TPH 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 50 NNW ALW 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 25 SE IMT 60 SW IWD 20 WNW BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA AND SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME... A WEAKER...BUT CONVECTIVELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL MOVE FROM SRN AR INTO AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ...THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING SWD INTO NRN TX/AR/KY BY MONDAY EVENING. ...ERN MS/AL/GA/SC... THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS STABILIZED SUNDAY BY CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WEAK SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE WITH 30-35 KT WINDS. EXPECT THAT ONE OR MORE LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH COLD POOL/FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS RESULTING IN MAINLY A SEVERE WIND THREAT. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SO MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 17Z TO 02Z. ...ERN CO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NWRN MO BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX ARE FORECAST TO DROP SEWD OVER THE RIDGE AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SBCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS... THOUGH A LAND SPOUT OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK..SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...SURFACE TROUGH/ CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT UNDIRECTIONAL WINDS THAT INCREASE WITH HEIGHT FROM 700-300 MB...SUGGEST A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...IF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE MODE...ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 12:56:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 07:56:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406281256.i5SCuQK05845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281253 SWODY1 SPC AC 281250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CAO 20 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 30 SW DEN 15 NE LAR 45 N CYS 25 SW BFF 30 NNE AKO 45 E LIC LAA 50 N CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 30 NNE MOB 35 SE ESF MLU BHM 40 N GAD 35 SE CHA AND CAE 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON ...CONT... 15 WSW FHU 60 N TUS 45 ESE PRC 50 E IGM 40 ENE LAS 50 W P38 45 E TPH 60 NE MER 45 SE EKA 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 50 NNW ALW 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA AREA EWD TO COASTAL GA/SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...CO FRONT RANGE AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RATHER STATIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONE OVER QUE AND MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NNWWD OVER ROCKIES TO NWRN CANADA. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS MS/AL/GA THROUGH 29/06Z. AT SFC...WAVY/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM TIDEWATER VA/NC AREA WSWWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN AR...CENTRAL/SWRN OK...AND SW TX/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION. FRONT EFFECTIVELY HAS BEEN REINFORCED AND SHUNTED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SWD OVER PAST 8-10 HOURS BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ORIGINATING OVER ERN NM AND TX HIGH PLAINS. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ONCE DIABATIC HEATING HELPS BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER FROM EFFECTS OF CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DAMAGING GUSTS WHEREVER AGGREGATE COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON MODIFIED RUC AND ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DEEP/RICH MOIST LAYER IN LOW LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. KINEMATICALLY...EXPECT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW THROUGH DEEP LAYER...WITH SOME MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MS VALLEY TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...BELT OF 30-45 KT 700 MB WINDS IS BOTH OBSERVED IN MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE 29/00Z...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN ANY ORGANIZED...COLD-POOL RELATED REAR INFLOW JETS THAT MAY BE GENERATED. THIS REGIME MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS SERN VA/NC AREA BY AROUND 29/00Z...HOWEVER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE CONDITIONAL OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT CONVECTIVE MODE AND DESTABILIZATION. SERN STATES SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 29/02Z...AS AIR MASS STABILIZES FROM BOTH OUTFLOW PROCESSES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ADJACENT CYS/PALMER/RATON RIDGES. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH MEAN RIDGE JUST W OF AREA -- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CO MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION FOR A SHORT INTERVAL AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS IS WHERE GREATEST PROBABILITIES ARE ASSIGNED FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL. PRONOUNCED VEERING IS FCST FROM SFC THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 4 KM AGL ACROSS ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...AND 20-30 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLYS ARE POSSIBLE N OF I-70. ELY FLOW COMPONENT TODAY SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT RESIDUAL/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UPSLOPE...WITH 50S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF ERN CO AND MID-UPPER 40S SERN WY. MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE JUST E OF FRONT RANGE BY 21Z...AWAY FROM AREAS OF CONVECTION...AS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ...NWRN CONUS...INTERMOUNTAIN W... PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...AS DIABATIC HEATING ON HIGHER TERRAIN ELIMINATES CINH. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE. EXPECT MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG OVER GREAT BASIN AND SWRN WY TO AROUND 800 J/KG INVOF WRN ID/NERN ORE/SERN WA. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 16:22:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 11:22:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406281622.i5SGMo131669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281620 SWODY1 SPC AC 281617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CAO 15 SSE RTN 55 NNE SAF 50 E GUC 30 NNW 4FC 10 NW LAR 35 ENE CYS 25 NNW AKO 30 ENE LIC 20 E LHX 30 NNW CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SSI 30 WNW ABY 40 E LUL 25 ENE ESF 40 S PBF 15 SSW UOX 35 NNE GAD 30 NNW AHN CAE 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN 60 SW PRC 25 SE EED 25 SSW LAS 40 ENE DRA 70 ESE TPH 45 SSW BIH 25 ENE FAT 35 N MER 45 NW RBL 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 40 E YKM 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM.... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD AND EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DELMARVA TODAY AROUND PREDOMINANT VORTEX ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PACIFIC COAST REGION. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SERN STATES. SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM LA EWD INTO NRN GA. ALSO A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LK ERIE SWWD INTO AR. SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEB REACHING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SERN STATES FROM SERN AR/NERN LA INTO GA/SC... AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX INTO SRN MS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER N CENTRAL TX...IN WHICH THE MODELS HINT AT THIS FEATURE MINORING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT FLOW WILL BE 30-40 KT ABOVE 1-2 KM ACROSS THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ...FRONT RANGE OF CO SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN NM... SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY TONIGHT RESULTING IN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO AND NERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS ERN CO...AND UPPER 50S ACROSS NERN NM. INCREASING INSOLATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES INDICATING THE THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE NEAR 7C/KM TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 19:47:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 14:47:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406281948.i5SJm4128049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281946 SWODY1 SPC AC 281944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CAO 35 W CAO 45 W RTN 45 W PUB 25 SSE 4FC 25 S LAR 45 ESE CYS 30 WNW AKO LIC LHX 30 NNW CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE 10 WSW LUL 15 ESE CBM 35 ESE AHN 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN 60 SW PRC 25 SE EED 25 SSW LAS 40 ENE DRA 70 ESE TPH 45 SSW BIH 25 ENE FAT 35 N MER 45 NW RBL 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 40 E YKM 40 NE 4OM ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 40 WSW TOL 35 NE MTC ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SSI 35 SSW AYS 15 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS ERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE FRONT RANGE HAS CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO NEAR 70F AS OF 19Z. LATEST RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING 74/52 NEAR DENVER SUGGESTS 800 J/KG MLCAPES AND LITTLE CINH. THUS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INVOF DENVER CYCLONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATER ONSET OF STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. ATTM...AREA PROFILERS DEPICT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /AOB 20 KTS/. SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE THAT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR BRIEFLY ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF DENVER. ...SERN STATES... DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. SHEARING MIDLEVEL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NERN MS WITH A BELT OF 20-35 KT FLOW IN THE 1-4 KM RANGE SPREADING EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH CNTRL AL TO SC. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD/TCU FROM CNTRL MS TO CNTRL GA ALONG A WEAK FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING SEABREEZE TSTMS INTERACT WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG OWING TO H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 10C ATOP 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE PULSE SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...EVIDENCE OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT FARTHER NORTH WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENT. FARTHER SOUTH IN FL...A RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM A DEPARTING FLIGHT OUT OF MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SUGGESTED AN H5 TEMPERATURE NEAR MINUS 8C. SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR MORE TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY COLLAPSE. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MORE CONCENTRATED TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM NRN NV ACROSS SRN UT INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE REGIONS RESIDE JUST AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A SEVERE WIND GUST OR HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 00:34:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 19:34:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406290035.i5T0ZP108801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290029 SWODY1 SPC AC 290027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PKB LBE 30 SW ELM 40 NE UCA 15 E GFL 10 WNW BAF 20 S EWR 35 ESE BWI 40 E CHO 40 SW EKN 15 SE PKB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 20 WSW PLN 30 S ESC 25 NW RHI IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU FLG 40 NNE IGM 35 W SGU 70 E TPH TPH 45 SSE BIH 50 E FAT UKI 30 SE EKA 25 ENE 4BK 50 NW RDM PDT 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 50 WNW CTB GTF SHR 50 WNW CDR AKO 55 NNE CAO GAG 15 NNW HRO 35 NNE PBF 45 E RMG 10 WSW GSP 30 SSE PSK 20 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LOW CLOUDS INHIBITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTED THE STORMS FROM INTENSIFYING AND BECOME SEVERE. THREAT OF SEVERE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALSO APPEARS MINIMAL. ...TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES... STRONG CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NRN TX EWD INTO CENTRAL GA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE HAVE SURGED NWD INTO CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL. ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY EWD MOVING STORM...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE OVER DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST AND/OR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03/04Z. ..IMY.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 04:58:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 23:58:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406290458.i5T4w6125518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290455 SWODY1 SPC AC 290453 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW IML 25 NNE BFF 45 W CDR 25 WSW RAP 20 SSE PHP 45 NNE ANW 15 NE BUB 30 ESE LBF 45 NNW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE PSM 20 SSE PSF 30 NNE AVP 20 S BFD 20 NNE YNG TOL 10 NE SBN 25 NNW CGX 20 W JVL 15 ENE RST 10 W BRD 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 65 ENE HVR 40 WSW GGW 20 W GDV 50 SE GDV 35 NE REJ 50 N PHP 25 SE PIR 30 WSW MHE 25 SW YKN 30 WSW OLU 10 SW HSI 35 E MCK 20 SSW MCK 25 ENE GLD 50 SSE GLD 20 NW GCK 30 E DDC 25 NE CNU 25 E TBN 25 NW BWG 50 ENE BWG 45 NNE CSV 40 SSE LOZ 25 SSW 5I3 30 SSW CRW 30 NNE BKW 20 E SSU 45 E LYH 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 SSE DUG 35 N INW 30 SSE CDC ELY 45 SSE EKO 40 SSE BAM 30 WNW TPH 30 SE BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 SW TVL 25 SE RBL 40 S EKA 10 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 30 S YKM 45 SE EPH 15 NNE GEG 85 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN SD AND WRN/NRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY STAGNANT LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION...AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. ...HIGH PLAINS AREA... WEAK LEE TROUGHING SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SELY WINDS TO ADVECT MID AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...STRONG TURNING OF WINDS FROM SELY TO NWLY IN THE LOWER 3-4 KM SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL THEY MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB. THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND AND BRIEF HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER MAY AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND...BUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN ...AND ONLY VERY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED. ...NRN CA/ORE/ID... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH NRN NV MONDAY EVENING WITHIN MOIST TROPICAL PLUME. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN ORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 13:05:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 08:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406291305.i5TD5s111601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291302 SWODY1 SPC AC 291301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW IML 25 NNE BFF 45 W CDR 25 WSW RAP PHP 9V9 15 NE BUB 30 ESE LBF 45 NNW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUG 55 ENE PHX 15 SSE SGU 20 NNE ELY 40 S EKO 40 SSE BAM 30 WNW U31 25 ENE BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 SW TVL 25 SE RBL 50 SSE EKA 35 NNE 4BK 45 E SLE 25 SSW EAT 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 20 S GDV 20 ESE REJ 45 WNW PIR 35 S ABR 25 ESE BKX 25 ESE YKN 30 E HSI 15 N HLC 40 S HLC 25 NNE DDC 10 NNE ICT 45 ENE COU 35 WNW EVV 15 S LEX 25 S HTS CRW 35 WSW SHD 35 WNW ORF 45 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSM 20 S BFD TOL 25 SW CGX 10 SE DBQ 40 E MKT 40 SSW BJI 65 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN/SRN SD AND WRN/NRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME TODAY AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...DAY TIME HEATING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED TROPICAL AIR MASS. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WILL TRACK SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD WRN OK SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN/NRN NEB IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS 20-25 KT SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD TODAY....BUT RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED FROM RETURNING NWD BY FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS NEB/SD COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING MAY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED WITH 12Z LBF RAOB. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SRN SD AND ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING CONVECTION/ CLOUD DEBRIS. ALTHOUGH WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 6 KM WILL BE AOB 20 KT...SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL...AND MAY BE REMOVED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF EXPECTED INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND 50+ KT SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS NY/SRN QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NRN WI/LOWER MI TODAY...AND EWD ACROSS NY TO NEW ENGLAND AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM SRN ONTARIO TO SRN QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS WI/LOWER MI...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER WRN NY TO THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE AREAS. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE FORECAST. ...NRN CA/ORE/ID... SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN ORE TODAY AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITHIN FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS NRN CA TO CENTRAL ORE...BUT STRONGER FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT OVER ERN ORE AND ID FOR MULTICELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...THOUGH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 16:35:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 11:35:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406291635.i5TGZ5114119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA 40 WNW CDR 55 WSW RAP 35 NW RAP 10 N PHP 15 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 35 SSE MHN AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML GFL 20 WNW ITH 45 NE CLE 30 NNE BEH 45 WNW MKG 30 SSE MBL 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PWM 20 SSW ALB 25 ENE CLE 25 W BEH 30 ESE RST 30 WSW AXN 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 ESE PRC 60 WNW ELY 10 E NFL 25 ENE TVL 20 NNE BIH 40 NW NID 35 SE FAT 40 N SAC 10 SSW UKI 20 ENE 4BK 35 ENE YKM 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 70 WNW MLS 50 SE REJ 20 ESE HON 25 SW FSD 20 SE OLU 20 NNE SLN 35 E HUT 40 S EMP 30 NNE SGF 45 WSW EVV 45 SE LUK 35 SSW HLG 30 W SHD 25 W DAN 20 N RDU 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRTLKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB/SD... ...SYNOPSIS... SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE RCKYS...AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE GRT LKS AND NEW ENG. CLOSED LOWS WILL LINGER OVER CA AND BC...S OF PERSISTENT ALASKAN BLOCK. GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN WEAK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURES APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PLAY THE DOMINANT ROLE IN MODULATING TIMING/PLACEMENT OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...ERN GRT LKS TO NRN NEW ENG... SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW N OF LK HURON WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO SW QUEBEC LATER TODAY...AND INTO NRN ME BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ATTM EXTENDING FROM SW QUEBEC TO NRN LWR MI...SHOULD REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY THIS EVENING AND NRN NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL BE UNINHIBITED...GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE DATA. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WI/LWR MI EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN NEW YORK AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN NEW ENG LATER TODAY. BELT OF MODERATE W/WNWLY FLOW EXTENDING S OF IMPULSE INTO THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT. THIS ...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL/DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...MAY SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS/BANDS OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ...WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB... WEAK NWLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD TODAY...RELATIVE TO OTHER PARTS OF THE CNTRL U.S. FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WITH STRONGEST UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN SD EXPECTED TO HEAD ESE AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB. HEATING MAY INITIATE ONE OR TWO STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER TODAY...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR OUTFLOW-DOMINANT PULSE ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WIND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 20-30 KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR. ...NRN CA/INTERIOR ORE/NRN GRT BASIN... SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP LATER TODAY ALONG A SW/NE AXIS FROM NRN CA ACROSS CNTRL ORE INTO WRN/NRN ID. AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER REGION TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AVERAGE PWS APPROACHING ONE INCH. DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS/BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY NE ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOTH DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE FORCING OVER REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO SUSTAINED CLUSTERS...AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 19:47:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 14:47:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406291947.i5TJlF103509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291944 SWODY1 SPC AC 291942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA 40 WNW CDR 55 WSW RAP 35 NW RAP 10 N PHP 15 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 35 SSE MHN AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SYR 20 NNE BFD 35 N MFD 35 NNE BEH 60 NE EAU 15 NNE IWD 25 S MQT 20 WSW HTL 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PWM 35 N MSV 20 NW MFD 25 W BEH 30 ESE RST 30 WSW AXN 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 ESE PRC 60 WNW ELY 10 E NFL 25 ENE TVL 20 NNE BIH 40 NW NID 35 SE FAT 40 N SAC 10 SSW UKI 20 ENE 4BK 35 ENE YKM 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 70 WNW MLS 50 SE REJ 20 ESE HON 25 SW FSD 20 SE OLU 20 NNE SLN 35 E HUT 40 S EMP 30 NNE SGF 45 WSW EVV 45 SE LUK 35 SSW HLG 30 W SHD 25 W DAN 20 N RDU 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD / NEB / ERN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO ERN WY... INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY TO MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN SD / NWRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 20 KT AND AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD / SWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST / GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER SWRN QUEBEC CONTINUES MOVING EWD. ALTHOUGH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS INDICATED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PAC NW / NRN GREAT BASIN... SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS CONTINUE MOVING NWD WITHIN WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG ERN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS LITTLE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW JUST E OF NRN CA CIRCULATION CENTER MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL FROM NRN CA NEWD INTO ID. ELSEWHERE...A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ...MIDDLE MS / TN VALLEY REGION... WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY / WIND SHIFT LYING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL AR / WRN TN WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENTLY BEING AIDED BY VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN AR INTO NRN MS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...VERY MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 30 01:00:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 20:00:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406300100.i5U10B123768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300056 SWODY1 SPC AC 300054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 SE PRC 60 SW ELY 20 NW U31 10 ENE NFL 30 SSE RNO 20 N BIH 55 SSE BIH 60 NW NID 35 SE FAT 25 NNE SAC 40 ESE UKI 20 N UKI 15 ENE 4BK 35 ESE SLE 30 S EAT 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 80 SW GGW 20 SW MLS 30 E REJ 40 SSW MBG 20 NE 9V9 35 WNW OFK 30 NNW CNK 35 ENE HUT 40 S EMP 30 NNE SGF 35 E MDH 35 NNW HTS 45 WSW EKN 10 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE PWM 10 WNW PSF 35 NW IPT 15 SW MFD 20 W SBN 30 NE RST 30 N AXN 60 NNE DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NE MN EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 30 TO 40 KT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN THE GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING AREA AS CELLS MOVE INLAND FROM LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS ONGOING NORTH OF DETROIT MAY ALSO POSE A BRIEF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF WRN ID...ERN ORE AND NRN CA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE AREA IN FAR ERN ORE AND WRN ID WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC NW IS ABOUT 30 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS OR SHORT-LIVED WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NWD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -13 C WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES F WILL FAVOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...HIGH PLAINS... A LINE OF WIDELY-SPACED STRONG STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN NEB. THE LINE IS ORIENTED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING NWWD INTO NW NEB. THE LBF 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT AT UPPER-LEVELS WHICH IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 06/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 02:14:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 21:14:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406010214.i512Emj05598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010103 SWODY1 SPC AC 010100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FDY 20 ENE BMG 45 E SLO 20 W STL 30 SW SPI 30 NNW LAF 25 NNW FWA 30 WNW FDY 25 SW FDY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ORF 25 NW RIC 35 WSW DCA 25 SSE BWI 10 ESE SBY 25 ENE WAL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DAB 15 SW CTY ...CONT... 25 S BPT 25 WSW TPL 20 E SEP 10 NE DAL 10 NNE GGG 15 WSW ESF MOB 30 ENE PFN 25 ESE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSX 30 S VCT 35 WNW NIR 30 N COT 25 NNE HDO 60 ENE JCT BWD 40 ENE ABI 40 S SPS 45 SW DUA 15 NW TXK 10 S GWO 35 SE AGS 15 SE GSO 20 SSW CHO 40 NNE SSU 15 NNE BKW 25 SE HTS 15 WNW UNI 30 SSW CMH 20 NE LUK 20 NNE SDF 30 N PAH 25 W TBN 20 NNE MKC 25 E RHI 120 NE MQT ...CONT... 20 SW BUF 35 ESE PSB 20 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 NNE MLB 25 N PIE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX TO THE GULF COASTAL REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...EAST/SOUTH TX... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL AND ERN TX AND ARE BEING MAINTAINED VCNTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS FEED ON MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DESPITE THE 0-1KM SHEAR BEING VERY WEAK. EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL MCS COULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO PARTS OF SERN TX WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. SRN EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS IN THIS AREA...AND MAY CARRY THE STORMS INTO PARTS OF SERN TX AND WCNTRL LA OVERNIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM NERN TX INTO PARTS OF LA AS A WEAK SSWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT. TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH IN SCNTRL TX THAT MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. ...GULF COASTAL AREA... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARC FROM NRN FL ACROSS THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS THEN NWWD INTO SRN LA. STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG THE OUTFLOW ACROSS NRN FL AND HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MODE. AIR PARCELS FEEDING THE STORMS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. TSTMS COULD REMAIN INTACT TO THE NERN COAST OF FL THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. UPSTREAM...SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER SCNTRL LA HAS BEEN FEEDING ON A RESERVOIR OF 2000-2500 MLCAPES AND MAY MOVE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED SEWD INTO SERN LA THIS EVENING. THIS STORM WILL HAVE THE RISK OF ISOLD TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT THE COVERAGE OUGHT TO REMAIN ISOLD. OVERNIGHT...A FEW TSTMS...PROBABLY ELEVATED...MAY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS AS WEAK SSWLY BRANCH OF THE LLJ ADVECTS INSTABILITY NWD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY AUGMENT LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN ISOLD STORMS. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... LIMITED INSOLATION...OWING TO HIGH CLOUD CANOPY...HAS DIMINISHED RATE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. 00 UTC WALLOPS SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY 445 J/KG MLCAPES AND WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS TRIED TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NRN VA/CNTRL MD. GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY TEND TO BRING HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE WITH AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES SEEM TO BE REDUCED. ...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST... A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE ROTATING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW ACROSS WI...IL AND NRN MO THIS EVENING. CENTRAL IL 00Z RAOB SAMPLED A MINUS 19C H5 TEMPERATURE ATOP NEAR 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED TSTMS. MAIN SEVERE RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS FORM INTO LINE SEGMENTS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO WLY FLOW REGIME. OTHERWISE...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND WEAKEN AS COOLING TAKES PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..RACY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 05:53:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 00:53:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406010553.i515r7j07915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010551 SWODY1 SPC AC 010548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 45 NNE VCT 55 SSE AUS 30 SE SAT 35 SE HDO 10 W HDO 50 W TPL 20 E SEP 40 SW SPS 30 ESE LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW PGO 40 SSW HRO 10 NNW POF 40 E BMG 45 N DAY 45 NNW MFD 15 WNW YNG 25 NNE PIT 10 SE MGW 30 SSW CRW 45 NNE CSV 45 NE CBM 30 NNE JAN 15 ENE MCB 15 SSE BVE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DOV 30 SSW PSK 60 NW AND 20 NE AHN 15 NNW AGS CRE ...CONT... 45 N BML 25 NE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DRT 55 S JCT 55 WSW SPS 10 WSW CSM 10 SSW GAG 35 W EHA 40 NE ALS 30 ESE MTJ 45 NNE GJT 40 SW LND 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 40 S LMT 50 WNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 30 ENE LWS 50 SW BIL 35 W GCC 30 W BFF 20 WSW AKO 25 SSW CNK 35 SW OJC 45 WNW TBN 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 10 SSW CID 50 SSW FOD 20 SSE STC 10 N MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX/WRN GULF COAST NEWD TO THE OH VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL DISLODGE THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA WHILE REDEVELOPING NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN TX. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN UPPER TROUGH... WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...NCNTRL/CNTRL/ERN TX... ONGOING TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN TX WILL FORCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SWD INTO SERN TX EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN AND LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD AGAIN ADVECT NWWD ALONG/ EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND AS THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES AND THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX AS THE CAP IS BREACHED. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR. INCREASING NWLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY CARRY A DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING MCS OR TWO AS FAR SE AS THE UPPER TX COAST OR SWRN LA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VLY... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC FARTHER NORTH. TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NWD WITH TIME TUESDAY EVENING WITHIN ENHANCED WARM/ MOIST ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO OK-AR-TN-KY. TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW... BRINGING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...MID-UPPER OH VLY... STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS. TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW TSTMS. THE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 13:06:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 08:06:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406011306.i51D6Dj16046@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011304 SWODY1 SPC AC 011300 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 35 S AUS 40 SSE BWD 50 NE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 10 SSE HUF 40 NNW CMH 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 20 NNE PBG 10 NW PSF 20 SSE POU 15 W NEL 15 W DCA 20 ENE 5I3 MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 S CDS 50 WNW CSM 40 W GAG 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 ESE AKO SLN 40 S SZL 25 WSW JEF 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 20 WSW CID 35 SSE FOD 30 NW FOD 30 W MKT 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 30 E SBY 20 S PSK 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.... ...E TX/SE OK... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX AND AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...MAINTAINING 40 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS STORMS ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS NE TX AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PRESENT ACROSS NE NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 50 KT ACROSS SE OK AND THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB) AT 06Z ACROSS SE OK. GFS AND ETA BOTH AGREE DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. IF AN MCS CAN GENERATE...IT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN AR INTO LA LATE TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALREADY IN PLACE...SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EARLY STORM INITIATION WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ETA/GFS AND RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -17C) SHOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...GULF COAST... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL THIS MORNING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL. MLCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS COUPLED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN MS IS SHOWING SOME BOWING AND IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 13:59:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 08:59:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406011359.i51Dxpj18693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011357 SWODY1 SPC AC 011354 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PBG 10 NW PSF 20 SSE POU 15 W NEL 15 W DCA 20 ENE 5I3 MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 20 S CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE PSX 35 S AUS 40 SSE BWD 50 NE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 10 SSE HUF 40 NNW CMH 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 S CDS 50 WNW CSM 40 W GAG 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 ESE AKO SLN 40 S SZL 25 WSW JEF 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 20 WSW CID 35 SSE FOD 30 NW FOD 30 W MKT 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 25 NE PSM ...CONT... 30 E SBY 20 S PSK 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.... CORRECTED GRAPHICS FOR SLIGHT AREA ACROSS NRN FL ...E TX/SE OK... A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX AND AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...MAINTAINING 40 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS STORMS ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS NE TX AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WITH 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PRESENT ACROSS NE NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 50 KT ACROSS SE OK AND THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB) AT 06Z ACROSS SE OK. GFS AND ETA BOTH AGREE DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. IF AN MCS CAN GENERATE...IT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN AR INTO LA LATE TONIGHT. ...NEW ENGLAND STATES... A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALREADY IN PLACE...SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EARLY STORM INITIATION WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ETA/GFS AND RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (500 MB TEMPS OF -15 TO -17C) SHOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...GULF COAST... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL THIS MORNING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL MS AND CNTRL AL. MLCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS COUPLED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN MS IS SHOWING SOME BOWING AND IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 17:43:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 12:43:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406011743.i51Hh2j03645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011740 SWODY1 SPC AC 011737 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ORF 25 NE TRI MEM 55 NNW GWO 20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV ...CONT... 25 N DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE PSX 20 ENE SAT 45 NE JCT 40 NNE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 35 N SLO 20 S FDY 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 35 SSW SJT 60 S CDS 15 NW CDS 55 ENE AMA 70 S LBL 15 S EHA 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 SE AKO 30 S HLC 30 ENE HUT 40 SSW SZL 25 WSW JEF 45 SW UIN 40 NE IRK 20 ESE DSM 35 SW FOD 15 ESE SPW 30 SE RWF 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 N BML PSM ...CONT... 20 NE ECG 50 NNE HKY 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL STATES...THE OH VLY...THE SRN PLNS AND THE GULF CST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MODULATED BY MAINLY SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSING VORT MAXIMA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. FEATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LEVELS. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT NOW ORGANIZING IN THE LWR MO VLY EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FARTHER SE...OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST. ...NERN/MID ATL STATES... SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARE DESTABILIZING REGION W OF WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REDEVELOPING EWD ACROSS NJ AND THE LWR HUDSON VLY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY WIDELY SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW...APPROACH OF UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN PA/WV...AND 40 + KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS IN ERN PA/NY. THE ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN PART OF OUTLOOK...BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY TONIGHT. ...OH VLY... TWO IMPULSES OF NOTE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL U.S....ONE OVER SW IA AND ONE NEAR HUF. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS AREAS OF ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY E OR ESE AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS OVER REGION. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN IN/IL INTO PARTS OF KY AND SE MO/NRN AR. WHILE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK INVOF DEVELOPING TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN THIS REGION... SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY. FARTHER N...A SECONDARY AREA FOR ASCENT/STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EMERGE IN IA/NRN IL AND NRN MO. WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT. ...CNTRL GULF CST... OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ...CNTRL/N TX AND OK NEWD INTO OZARKS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR /MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ INVOF WEAK THERMAL/LEE LOW OVER N CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT....AND IN E TX ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNW FROM LA/MS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING THE PANHANDLES REGION CONTINUES ESEWD. SETUP IN THESE AREAS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S...WITH EXCEPTION THAT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE DIRECTED A BIT FARTHER N AND W. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSE HAIL/WIND-PRODUCING STORMS IN TX...WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN OK AND NRN AR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT SHOULD MOVE ESE TOWARD NW LA/SE OK/SWRN AR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:16:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:16:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406012015.i51KFtj03605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012010 SWODY1 SPC AC 012006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB 45 NNW CEW TOI 20 S CSG 20 ESE SAV ...CONT... 40 SSE JAX 25 WNW CTY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S WAL PSK UOX GWO 30 WSW HUM ...CONT... 25 SE BPT 35 ESE CLL CLL 25 ESE AUS 25 E SAT SAT 50 SSW JCT 45 SW JCT SJT LTS 35 N OKC TUL BLV 40 N DNV 30 NNW HLG DUJ 25 ENE ROC ...CONT... 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BML 10 SE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ECG 10 S DAN 20 NNE AVL AND 40 NW CHS 30 E CHS ...CONT... 20 SSE P07 35 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF DRO U28 SLC TWF 60 NNE BOI 50 NW 27U BZN WRL 35 SSW BFF 30 SSW GLD DDC P28 JLN VIH 35 WNW STL 20 SSW UIN 25 WSW OTM 40 SW ALO LSE CWA 30 NNW APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL STATES...THE OH VLY...AND THE SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MAINTAIN LARGE AREA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...NERN/MID ATL STATES... SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LATER AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH MAINLY WIND DAMAGE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. ...OH VLY... ONE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY/OH AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL AND NRN TX/OK EWD INTO AR... CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO DEVELOP FROM JCT NWD TO EAST OF ABI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS SHOULD THEM MOVE ESEWD THROUGH NERN TX/SERN OK/SRN AR AND NRN LA WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SERN GULF CST... OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:39:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:39:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406012039.i51Kdoj19542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012034 SWODY1 SPC AC 012031 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE JAX 25 WNW CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE MOB 45 NNW CEW TOI 20 S CSG 20 ESE SAV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP ...CONT... 25 S WAL PSK UOX GWO 30 WSW HUM ...CONT... 25 SE BPT 35 ESE CLL CLL 25 ESE AUS 25 E SAT SAT 50 SSW JCT 45 SW JCT SJT LTS 35 N OKC TUL BLV 40 N DNV 30 NNW HLG DUJ 25 ENE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 35 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF DRO U28 SLC TWF 60 NNE BOI 50 NW 27U BZN WRL 35 SSW BFF 30 SSW GLD DDC P28 JLN VIH 35 WNW STL 20 SSW UIN 25 WSW OTM 40 SW ALO LSE CWA 30 NNW APN ...CONT... 40 NNW BML 10 SE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ECG 10 S DAN 20 NNE AVL AND 40 NW CHS 30 E CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL STATES...THE OH VLY...AND THE SRN PLNS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN GULF COASTAL STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MAINTAIN LARGE AREA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...NERN/MID ATL STATES... SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LATER AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH MAINLY WIND DAMAGE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. ...OH VLY... ONE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY/OH AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL AND NRN TX/OK EWD INTO AR... CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO DEVELOP FROM JCT NWD TO EAST OF ABI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS SHOULD THEM MOVE ESEWD THROUGH NERN TX/SERN OK/SRN AR AND NRN LA WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SERN GULF CST... OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. ..IMY.. 06/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 03:04:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 22:04:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406020304.i52343j22267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020103 SWODY1 SPC AC 020100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE BPT CLL 30 WSW AUS 20 SW JCT 25 SSE ABI 10 WNW LTS 35 NW FSM 25 SSE BMG 35 W CMH 50 WNW MRB 35 SSE PSK 20 ENE UOX 35 WSW JAN 25 WSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW PSX 20 ESE COT 15 ESE DRT 25 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF 20 SSE MTJ 35 WNW EGE 25 W CYS 30 WNW GLD 40 S HLC 20 ENE HUT 55 NNE JLN 20 SSE VIH 35 NW SLO 45 ENE LAF 10 NNW TOL 45 SSE MTC ...CONT... 10 E ECG 20 SE GSO 35 E RMG 40 NW MCN 45 SSW AGS 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 20 SW BID. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH/TN VLYS... ...SRN PLAINS INTO OH/TN VLYS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX ATTM. ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN AIDING NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VLY SWD INTO CNTRL TX. FORT WORTH 00Z SOUNDING EXHIBITED A SMALL CAP...BUT GIVEN EFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION...PARCELS WILL BE FORCED TO CONVECT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER REMAINS WEAK...BUT GIVEN A MOTION ALONG BOUNDARY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ESEWD...IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INTO NERN/ECNTRL TX AND ADJACENT LA AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR SEWD THE STORMS WILL REACH...WITH CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THE SWRN COAST OF LA. CONTINUED RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS. MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CORN BELT IS BEGINNING TO EJECT ESEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS. INCREASING LOW- MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 06:04:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 01:04:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406020604.i5264Wj08340@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020602 SWODY1 SPC AC 020558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 45 SE JCT 45 SW JCT 45 WSW SJT 35 NNW MAF 50 NNE ROW 30 WSW RTN 15 NW PUB 25 S LIC 30 E LBL 40 SW TUL 40 NNW HOT 15 WSW MEM 25 SW BWG 15 SW LEX 50 E LUK 10 S MFD 15 ENE JHW 20 SSE GFL 25 ESE PSM ...CONT... 25 SE WAL 10 N LYH 25 WSW HSS 30 N GAD 45 WNW AUO 20 WNW ABY AYS 25 NE SSI ...CONT... 15 ESE DAB 35 S CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE DGW 20 SE ICT 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW STL 10 E DTW ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E BHB ...CONT... 40 S CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...AND FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/NRN FL INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH FROM SERN CANADA TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ENEWD WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVER THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE MOVED SEWD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STALL VCNTY NRN FL...SRN STATES AND N TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING SEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY FOCUS TSTM THREATS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OH VLY... CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME...H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15C ATOP 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS...LIKELY FAVORING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL TEND TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA 40 KTS. ...TN VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... A WEAK WAVE TOPPING WRN STATES RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE TN VLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MS VLY ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT. GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING...TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY/LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 60 KTS MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TN INTO PARTS OF ERN KY. ...NRN FL TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... WELL-DEFINED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD UPSTREAM ACROSS AR AND NRN MS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND COULD INTENSIFY ALONG THE ERN EDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON-DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND NRN FL. OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL...BUT IF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CAN HEAT...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SURFACE DIVERGENCE BEGINS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM LA WWD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SRN HIGH PLAINS HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY DECREASE WITH TIME OVER THESE AREA. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NCNTRL TX... SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER NW ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE NOSING DOWN INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL TURN SURFACE FLOW UPSLOPE...ADVECTING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH 8-8.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AND COULD BE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES TO 3500-4500 J/KG DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN 45-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO NWRN/NCNTRL TX. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...IT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...TSTM PROPAGATION SHOULD FAVOR A SWD MOVEMENT. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR A WIND DAMAGING MCS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK/NWRN/NCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT... BUT PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. ...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL... WEST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY AUGMENT STRONG UPDRAFTS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 13:07:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 08:07:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406021307.i52D72j19008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021305 SWODY1 SPC AC 021301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DAB 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 50 SSE AUS 40 SE JCT 30 WSW SJT 30 NNE HOB 30 WSW TCC 15 NNE RTN 30 WSW LHX 15 NNW LAA 50 E LAA 50 WSW P28 50 ENE OKC 10 W FSM 40 SW JBR 10 NE CKV 25 ESE LUK 25 E MFD 20 SE ERI 25 SE BOS ...CONT... 15 ENE ACY MRB 25 S EKN 25 S TRI 25 E RMG 15 SE ANB 20 NW AUO 30 S CSG AYS 20 NE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD ...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 15 NW SLC 60 W BPI 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE DGW 20 SSE ICT 30 NE BVO 25 NE SGF DNV 10 E MTC ...CONT... 35 NNE ROC 30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...APPALACHIAN MTNS...SE US AND NE US.... ...TX PANHANDLE/NW TX/SE OK/ERN CO... MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS W TX AND THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS NOW NORTH OF SAN ANGELO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NW TX AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SFC HEATING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF W TX...A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ETA/ETAKF/GFS MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS RESULTING IN ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT AMA AND MAF SHOW BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SW AND W ABOVE 700 MB. THIS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MATURE...MOVING ESEWD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS CONGEAL AND MOVE SEWD. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT. ...NORTHEAST US... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SPEED MAX OF 60 KT CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET APPROACHES AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F AND AS TEMPS WARM TODAY...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ABOUT 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS BY EVENING. ...GULF COAST STATES... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SE LA AND MS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LARGE-SCALE BOW HAS WEAKENED BUT REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND AS THE MCS TRACKS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN A WET DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE SEWD OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...ERN COAST OF FL... AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN FL...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ERN FL SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COUPLED WITH VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING A BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:15:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:15:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406021715.i52HFMj30694@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021653 SWODY1 SPC AC 021650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE GLS SAT JCT 55 W CVS RTN LIC GLD UMN POF 20 NW BWG 30 ESE LUK MFD 20 NW UCA 15 ESE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ORF TYS 35 N MSL 25 SE MEM 40 E MLU 20 W 7R4. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MOB 35 E MEI 35 NNE MEI CBM 25 N BHM 10 NNE MCN 30 E SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 60 SSW COD 40 N RWL 45 N CYS 15 NNW SLN 25 ESE EMP 50 NNE JLN 10 ESE TBN 40 NNW ALN 30 SSE MMO 20 SE GRR 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 SSW ART 20 S BTV 35 NW AUG 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...APPALACHIAN MTNS...AND NE US.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN COASTAL STATES AND FL... ...SRN PLAINS... ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OUT OF WY AND IN ZONE OF 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL. SOUNDINGS ACROSS OK/TX SHOW 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM...RESULTING IN MUCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. AS KS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO OK STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND DEVELOP INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. ALSO...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN STREAM OF ACCAS FROM SERN CO/NERN NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DHT EWD TO END AND SGF...STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT. WIND PROFILES VEER FROM SELY TO NWLY ALOFT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WIND PROFILES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE NW FLOW PATTERNS...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL AND RACE SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO TX AS AN MCS WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN NM/SERN CO LATE TODAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND INITIATES STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND POSSIBLY SERN TX/LA LATE TONIGHT. ...NORTHEAST US... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS EWD INTO PA/MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SPEED MAX IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LIFT ACCENTUATED ACROSS VA/PA LATER TODAY IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. DESPITE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS HAVE FORMED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/LINES OF CONVECTION. THE SHEAR PROFILES AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...GULF COAST STATES... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/AVC LOCATED OVER MS. ALTHOUGH THE BOW HAS WEAKENED...REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. ...ERN COAST OF FL... SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INITIATING STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MORNING SOUNDING AT TAMPA WAS VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE INSTABILITY AND COLLISION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AN SOME HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..IMY.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 20:30:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 15:30:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406022030.i52KU4j00722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022027 SWODY1 SPC AC 022023 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W OKC 15 ESE TUL 40 NW HOT 15 ESE TXK 35 SSW TXK 45 SSW ADM 25 ESE FSI 15 W OKC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ORF 40 NNW GSO 35 NW CHA 35 ENE ANB 50 W AGS 30 SW CRE ...CONT... 15 SW PNS 20 SSW SEM 10 SSE CBM 30 NNW GWO 15 SSE ESF 30 SW 7R4 ...CONT... 30 ENE GLS 15 WNW SAT 55 SW TCC 20 SW TAD 30 SW LIC 50 ENE LIC 45 WSW HLC 10 NW UMN POF 30 SSW OWB 30 ESE LUK 10 S CLE 20 NW UCA 20 SSE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD ...CONT... 55 SW DMN 30 NNE SVC 30 SE 4SL 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 60 SSW COD 40 N RWL 45 N CYS 15 NNW SLN 25 ESE EMP 50 NNE JLN 10 ESE TBN 35 S UIN 35 NNW IRK 35 WNW ALO 30 WNW DBQ 20 NW CGX 30 W SBN 20 SE GRR 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 SSW ART 20 S BTV 35 NW AUG 20 E BHB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN-SERN OK/FAR SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE ERN STATES... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN OK INTO WRN/SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN PORTION OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD. A BAND OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE LEADING PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD TO CENTRAL AR...AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN OK TO THE NORTH OF OKC INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING NJ SWWD TO ERN TN TO SRN AR BY 12Z. ...SRN PLAINS... ONGOING SEVERE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN/SERN OK INTO WRN-SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AIDS IN FAST SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW ECHO. STRONGER CAP WWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MERGES WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 4000+ J/KG/ AIR MASS OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SERN CO/ERN NM WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM FAR WRN OK ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS. ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN TX AND/OR OK AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50 KT ACROSS WRN TX. STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THESE MCS/S WILL MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS POTENTIALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF SERN TX/LA AND AR BY 12Z THURSDAY. ...NORTHEAST US... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY NEWD TO PA/NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 50-60 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS FOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...CENRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO FL... SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST STATES AND FL. WEAK COLD POOL... CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/SRN AL WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS EWD INTO SRN GA/NRN FL WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS FL ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER...GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER WITH THE ONGOING MCS. ..PETERS.. 06/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 01:02:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 20:02:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406030102.i5312Uj32731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030059 SWODY1 SPC AC 030056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP NIR HDO 20 E JCT 30 SSW ABI AMA DHT CAO LHX LAA LBL 30 SE GAG ADM 20 WNW TXK 10 ESE HOT 30 SW DYR 40 SW CKV CSV TRI 35 WNW HKY GSP ATL AUO TOI 30 WNW CEW 20 SSE MOB 25 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ELP ALM ONM GNT DRO 45 NNE CEZ U28 PUC 10 NNW EVW MLD TWF SUN DLN BZN 10 SE LVM WRL 10 NNW RWL SNY MCK HLC 10 WNW HUT 10 NNW BVO FYV HRO ARG 40 N DYR 15 NNW HOP 25 W LOZ HTS 15 S UNI LUK 30 S MTO SPI 15 N PIA 30 SSW SBN AZO 55 ESE MTC ...CONT... 20 NNW ROC 30 SSE UCA 30 SE MWN 40 SW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 25 WSW HDO JCT SJT 45 S BGS 80 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHERN STATES.... ...SRN PLAINS INTO LWR MS VLY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREAS... ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO BASE OF A LARGE SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...INCLUDING ONE WHICH INITIATED EVOLUTION OF LARGE ONGOING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OUT OF KANSAS MAY AID CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS. LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL WILL MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. DEW POINTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 70S... CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG... SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL. GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF COLD POOL...AND LITTLE TO SUGGEST WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS TEXAS...LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVIDENT IN 03/00Z RAOB FROM FORT WORTH PROVIDES A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY WITH ONSET OF AT LEAST WEAK RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN ONGOING EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NEAR/ WEST OF WICHITA FALLS...GENERATION OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS LIKELY. LIFT ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD POOL MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP...AND SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY IN WEAK FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...BUT STRENGTH OF SURFACE COLD POOL MORE THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WHICH INITIATED UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ENHANCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR/MOMENTUM BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION INTO DAMAGING WIND CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXISTS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF GROWING CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE/EXTREME NORTHERN GULF STATES...AND ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. **FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PLEASE REFER TO LASTEST SPC MESOCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 05:41:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 00:41:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406030541.i535f1j11859@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030539 SWODY1 SPC AC 030536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP HDO 10 SE SJT MAF CNM 4CR SAF 50 W RTN TAD CYS DGW 40 ENE SHR 4BQ REJ PHP 35 E MCK 10 NNE DDC 50 SW GAG MWL TPL CLL LFK 45 N POE LUL TCL GAD AND 25 ESE GSO 35 ENE RWI 25 NNW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 35 NNW OWY 20 WNW LMT 35 SSE PDX 45 SSE SEA 35 NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE SLN 35 W TUL 30 SW UNO 35 NNW HOP 25 N JKL 35 NE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...GULF COAST STATES...AND HIGH PLAINS.... DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT INTO A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST PROMINENT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH BROADER SCALE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE INTO EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. ...GULF COAST STATES... MODELS SUGGEST MAIN LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...REMNANTS OF MASSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY DAYBREAK...STABILIZING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY CLOUD COVER/DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SMALL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. DESPITE PROBABILITY OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST... BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN MIXED LAYER IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/EAST OF THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. INSTABILITY AFTER DARK ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUATION OF SEVERE THREAT...AS MID/UPPER FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING, MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OR SO APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY... AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ...HIGH PLAINS... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED AS SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK TOPS CREST OF RIDGE. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS TO AT LEAST SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THIS CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE SOUTHWARD THAN SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC...BUT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ..KERR.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 13:07:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 08:07:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406031307.i53D7H802065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031305 SWODY1 SPC AC 031302 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 40 ESE NIR 10 WSW JCT 50 W SJT 25 N GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 10 N FCL 20 NNE CYS 15 NNW BFF 25 E AIA 35 SSW MHN 20 NW MCK 15 ESE LBL 30 WSW CSM 30 SSW ADM 20 NW TXK 45 W UOX 10 SSW CKV 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 30 ENE LMT 70 NE MFR 20 ENE PDX 55 WNW YKM 35 NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE SLN 25 NW PNC 15 SE PNC 25 NE TUL 25 WNW EVV 55 WNW HTS 15 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...CAROLINAS AND FL... ...ERN CO/W TX/ERN NM... A LEE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE TODAY ACROSS ERN CO AND THIS WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NWD INTO ERN CO TODAY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S F. AS TEMPS WARM...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND STORMS SHOULD GENERATE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SUPERCELLS ISOLATED. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC AND INVERTED V PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF. ...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA... A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN MO...AR AND NRN LA. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SFC HEATING THIS MORNING WILL RAISE THE INSTABILITY AND HIGH-END MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT JACKSON MS SHOWS 30 KT AT 500 MB WITH THE BNA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 40 KT IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THIS STRONGER FLOW ACROSS TN AND MS SPREADS EWD...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IF A COLD POOL ORGANIZES...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS NRN GA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE MCS MOVES EWD THIS EVENING. ...PACIFIC NW... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S F ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MTNS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...INVERTED V PROFILES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 16:45:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 11:45:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406031645.i53Gjd823797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031643 SWODY1 SPC AC 031639 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRP 40 ESE NIR 10 WSW JCT 50 W SJT 25 N GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 10 N FCL 25 SE DGW 50 SE 81V 35 WSW PHP 40 W VTN 20 NW MCK 15 ESE LBL 30 E CDS 20 SE SEP 40 NE LFK 50 ENE PBF 20 SW PAH 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 10 E SAD 25 ENE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 30 ENE LMT 50 SE EUG 30 N PDX 35 N SEA 25 NNW 3TH 40 WNW HVR 15 NW SDY 15 W HON 15 ENE OLU 10 NNW SLN 40 ESE P28 OKC 15 N ADM 35 SE MLC 40 NW FYV 35 N SGF 10 WNW JEF 20 NW STL 30 SW HUF 30 WSW MRB 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. AND ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ONE MID LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER SERN MO AS ANOTHER EXITS THE NERN CORNER OF THE U.S. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SEND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES FROM THE NC COAST WWD ACROSS NRN GA THROUGH A COUPLE WEAK LOWS OVER NWRN MS AND EAST CENTRAL TX. CONVECTION IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING BOUNDARY THAT BEGAN OVER THE SRN PLAINS ATTM YESTERDAY. FINALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWWD INTO SERN AZ WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN AND NWRN TX. ...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL... ACTIVE BOW LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND IS MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS REGION. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER SWRN AL. ADVANCING LINE WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL DRYING PRESENT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF SWRN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES SURFACE RIDGE ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE BLACK HILLS OF SD. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH FORECAST CAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT INDICATES DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN PLATEAU... MODELS INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE WA COAST INTO NRN CA BY 04/00Z. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH LIFTED INDICES TO AROUND -4...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR OR/WA AND MOVING OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH ID INTO MT TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 20:28:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 15:28:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406032029.i53KTX816204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032023 SWODY1 SPC AC 032019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE 4LW 45 NNW 4LW 70 SW PDT 20 WNW LWS 30 WSW MSO 25 WSW DLN 20 NE PIH 45 NE OWY 80 NNW WMC 35 ENE 4LW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 20 WNW FCL 15 SSE DGW 40 SE 81V 30 E RAP 40 W VTN 20 NW MCK 45 NE GAG 30 S LTS 35 S SEP 40 NW BTR 50 NNE GLH 30 NW DYR 40 ENE PAH 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 SE PSX 25 NW VCT 35 NNE HDO 45 NNE DRT 25 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 10 E SAD 25 ENE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 WNW EKO 75 WNW WMC 25 NNW MHS 45 SE EUG 30 N PDX 35 N SEA 25 NNW 3TH 40 WNW HVR 15 NW SDY 15 W HON 15 ENE OLU 10 NNW SLN 40 ESE P28 OKC 15 N ADM 35 SE MLC 40 NW FYV 35 N SGF 10 WNW JEF 20 NW STL 30 SW HUF 30 WSW MRB 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE/FAR SERN WA TO MUCH OF ID... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE/SWRN KS/WRN OK... A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE NOW LOCATED ACROSS ID/NWRN UT AND A SECOND MOVING ACROSS SRN UT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND THEN SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE SRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN OK/WRN TX BY 12Z FRIDAY. BROAD AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A SLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO TO WRN SD. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN WY/NERN UT INTO CENTRAL CO. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SW TX/ERN NM NWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...CAPE/ STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH LCLS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. AT LEAST ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO LATER THIS EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30-40 KT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHT VEERING OF THE LLJ LATE TONIGHT SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX BY 12Z. ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN PLATEAU... SHORT WAVE RIDGING/MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA TO WRN MT...IS LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE/SERN WA INTO ID BY LATE AFTERNOON. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...AIDING IN THE DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN WA/ERN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN/CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NRN CA TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INCREASING THE INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ORE/SERN WA INTO ID FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... VIS IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS FAR NRN FL. ONGOING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SWRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE PER REGIONAL RADARS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL. ...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED OVER MIDDLE-ERN TN AND NRN MS TO NRN GA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST BENEATH BAND OF 45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED GIVEN OBSERVED MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 06/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 01:04:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 20:04:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406040103.i5413q824800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040101 SWODY1 SPC AC 040057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4LW 60 NW 4LW RDM PDT 55 ENE S80 27U 40 N SUN 10 E BOI 70 SSE BNO 4LW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S SAV 35 NNW AYS 30 N ABY 10 ESE MGM 45 SW 0A8 40 NNW MEI 20 E GWO 25 WSW TUP 35 E TUP 30 NNW BHM 40 WNW ATL AHN 30 WSW HKY GSO RDU 30 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW CDR 45 SSE RAP 35 N MHN MHN IML EHA CVS 45 WNW ROW 35 NNW ELP 40 ENE DMN 20 E ONM 40 SSE SAF LVS PUB 40 WNW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN SVC GNT FMN CNY PUC 10 SSE SLC 30 E EKO 45 W OWY MHS MFR 45 E EUG DLS 50 WNW ALW 25 NNW 3TH 35 S HVR GGW ISN MBG PIR ANW BBW RSL 10 W P28 LTS 10 ESE MWL 40 NNE LFK ESF BTR 45 NNW MOB 25 SSW SEM MEI 25 N JAN GLH MKL CGI 10 SW MVN 40 NNE EVV SDF HTS EKN 30 NE CHO 20 SSE WAL ...CONT... 60 S CRP 15 SSW LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 20 SSW BDL 20 SE ORH 25 ESE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST.... ...HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING CREST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE UNCERTAIN...WITH ONLY NARROW TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. CONSIDERING WARMTH OF AIR MASS ALOFT...THIS MOISTURE MAY ONLY SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS. STILL...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO MAINTAIN SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AS BASE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... THOUGH MARGINAL MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC HAS LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS...DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. ...SOUTHEAST... INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...SOME DEEPENING OF LOW AND INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS NOW INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD 04/12Z. **FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 05:36:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 00:36:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406040536.i545aP826855@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040534 SWODY1 SPC AC 040530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN 30 SE ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY DAN 25 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 E FAR 10 SE ATY 55 WSW YKN GRI CNK HUT P28 CSM AMA EHA 45 SSW GLD AKO 40 WSW BFF DGW 4BQ GDV 50 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 20 WSW DRO 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW PUC 35 SW ENV 20 NW BOI 15 SSW S06 35 NW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 25 ENE SUX 35 ENE JLN 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 15 ENE MCB 40 WNW MOB 60 ESE MEI TCL 20 S MSL 30 SE MKL 25 N PAH 30 SSW BMG 25 NNW PIT PSB 25 SW ABE 10 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE FL PEN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.... SPLIT IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...AND ROTATES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY...MODELS INDICATE BELTS WILL GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE. THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE FORM OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ...GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS... AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. WHILE THIS MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON... STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPE IN DEEPENING/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN...RESULTING IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR SURFACE TROUGH. THOUGH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST CELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...FLORIDA... CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND WEAK INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS. ...HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS HAS DRIED LOWER LEVELS...AND WILL PRECLUDE GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO LEE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN CAP. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER CAP WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY TRANSITION TO GROWING...SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR ON EASTERN EDGE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY DIMINISH RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FAIRLY RAPIDLY. ...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION...DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND MORE ORGANIZED/BROADER-SCALE WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 12:58:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 07:58:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406041258.i54Cwd827524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041256 SWODY1 SPC AC 041252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ DHN 30 SE ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY DAN 25 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50 E FAR 10 SE ATY 55 WSW YKN GRI CNK HUT P28 CSM AMA EHA 40 N LAA 35 ENE DEN 40 WSW BFF DGW 4BQ GDV 50 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 20 WSW DRO 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW PUC 35 SW ENV 20 NW BOI 15 SSW S06 35 NW CTB ...CONT... 30 ENE ELO 25 ENE SUX 35 ENE JLN 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 15 ENE MCB 40 WNW MOB 60 ESE MEI TCL 20 S MSL 30 SE MKL 25 N PAH 30 SSW BMG 25 NNW PIT PSB 25 SW ABE 10 ESE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAIN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING FL... ...SERN STATES... UPPER LOW VCNTY BOWLING GREEN KY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT/ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THAT IS PROGD TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE E-W FRONT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE OWING TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SC/NC AND/OR ALONG WEAK FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ALONG/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCLS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. ...FL... WEAK INHIBITION AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MANY PARTS OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW IS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT UPDRAFTS WILL BE VIGOROUS GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...PULSE MULTICELL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ....PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS OWING TO PENETRATION OF SURFACE RIDGE WELL SOUTH INTO TX. NONETHELESS...HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO-MT WILL INITIATE TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING FROM UT INTO WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND GIVEN SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT ALONG WITH LARGE HAILSTONES. ONE OR MORE MCSS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GEOGRAPHY AND TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LARGEST TSTM CLUSTERS TO CONGEAL AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS FROM PARTS OF THE DAKS INTO CNTRL/WRN NEB. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL...BUT THE LATE NIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/FAR W TX...RECENT SURGE OF 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER NORTH...BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...EFFECTIVE COLD POOL GENERATION COULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS...THUS THE LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN PLAINS/TX... WEAK MCS MOVING ACROSS OK MAY LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SRN OK OR NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...BUT NWLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY AUGMENT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THESE STORMS ARE APT TO MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VLY WITH A CONTINUED ISOLD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 16:27:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 11:27:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406041626.i54GQl809570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041624 SWODY1 SPC AC 041621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 20 WSW ABY 10 SSW ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY 40 NNE RDU 25 ESE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW DVL 30 SE JMS 30 NE HON 55 WSW YKN 15 W GRI 35 N RSL 30 NW END 35 WSW ADM 55 NNW ABI 50 W LBB 20 ESE CAO 15 SE LHX 35 ENE DEN 40 WSW BFF 50 ENE DGW 15 NW REJ 35 NW DIK 30 W MOT 25 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP 40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE TWF 30 SSE SUN 40 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35 E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL 60 ESE MEI TCL 25 SW HSV 30 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG 20 NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MAINLY NWLY FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KY/TN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE WV/WRN MD REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PACIFIC...JUST S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WILL SEND A MID LEVEL TROUGH ENEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EWD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WEAK SURFACE LOW...A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER KY/TN...WAS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TODAY...WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD EXTENDING ACROSS E CENTRAL VA/SERN MD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGS EWD INTO SERN GA AND NWRN FL BY 05/12Z. ...SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.... AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN NC AND CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA. MLCAPES ACROSS NC ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MORNING RAOBS INDICATED THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6.0-6.5C/KM. MOST EVIDENT IS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AT MID LEVELS FROM THE SW INTO CENTRAL NC ATTM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UVVS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. IN FL...AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EWD/SEWD INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA...PULSE TYPE STORMS MAY BE THE RULE AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONVECT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE. ETA MODEL DEPICTS STRONGEST VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVES SEWD ACROSS SD/NE/KS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS ESTIMATING NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE DEW POINTS. ETA MODEL BRINGS UPPER 50S DEW POINTS NWD INTO ERN ND. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S IN SERN SD WELL AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/DEVELOPING MCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY THEN DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS WITH MAIN THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 20:01:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 15:01:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406042000.i54K0p822651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041958 SWODY1 SPC AC 041954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CTY 10 NE VLD 35 ENE ABY 35 NNW MCN 30 S SPA 45 ENE HKY 20 WSW DAN 20 NE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE DVL 50 SSW FAR 25 E HON 40 WNW OFK 15 S GRI 40 N RSL 35 SSW END 45 SW DUA 20 S DAL 50 SW LBB DHT 15 SE LHX 35 WSW AKO 40 WSW BFF 60 NE DGW 20 N REJ 25 NNW DIK 10 N MOT 10 ESE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP 40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE TWF 35 SW SUN 20 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35 E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL 30 S SEM 30 E MGM 25 E ANB 25 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG 20 NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES... ...SERN STATES... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NC TOWARD SERN VA/DELMARVA AREA...AS WARM FRONT ALSO MOVES NWD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SC. 35 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NC/VA...ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NC INTO SERN VA AS THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MOVE NEWD. LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF AND ENE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES. FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO NRN FL...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS. ...CENTRAL/SRN FL... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ SRN FL ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...AND ALONG THE GUST FRONT ADVANCING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE... MULTI-CELL STORMS WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WET MICROBURTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WRN KS TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NWRN TX. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE PLAINS STATES...ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN/WRN TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...ALONG AND SOUTH A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN TX. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SWWD FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OK ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN INTO NRN TX. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONGER NWLY FLOW WITH THE OK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FARTHER NWD...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS CO TO MT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS/WY SWD TO NM. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. AS THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN PLAINS...SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ALTHOUGH LCLS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE OF THE LLJ THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS PROVIDING MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW INTO THE STORMS...ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD...WITH THE THREAT BEING MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. **FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.** ..PETERS.. 06/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 01:08:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 20:08:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406050108.i5518a811322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050106 SWODY1 SPC AC 050103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 40 ESE DVL 45 SE JMS 15 S ABR 25 NW BUB 45 N HLC 20 ESE DDC 30 SSE CSM 40 NNW MWL 15 SSW DAL 60 ENE ACT 30 N CLL AUS 15 SE JCT 35 S BGS 45 W LBB 25 W DHT 40 SE LIC 10 S SNY 40 NNE CDR 15 E Y22 25 SSW P24 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W FHU 70 NE SAD 40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 25 S GUC 55 SE VEL 40 S EVW 25 S MLD 25 WNW PIH 45 NNW SUN 55 N BOI 50 ENE BNO 60 NNE 4LW 60 NNE LMT 60 SE EUG 45 SSE SEA 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 NW ELO 35 N EAU 15 NW LSE 40 S RST 15 SSE SPW 30 SE SUX 15 ESE BIE 30 SSW EMP 30 W MKO 50 ENE PRX 40 NNW ESF 10 S MCB 20 NW MOB 10 SSW DHN 40 SSW MCN 30 WNW AGS 40 SSE SPA 20 S CLT 25 ENE SOP 35 ENE RWI 25 ENE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ND TO CENTRAL TX... ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AND CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM WRN ND...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY CONGEALING INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED N-S MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY FROM SWRN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A SLOW UPWARD ORGANIZATIONAL TREND CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS ACTIVITY. SWD PROPAGATION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST IF BOW SHAPED ECHOES CAN EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE. NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE RELUCTANCE FOR THE LLJ TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT SUGGEST MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL HOLD MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ...CENTRAL TX... MULTI CELL CLUSTERS ARE CONVERGING OVER CENTRAL TX BETWEEN ABI-SJT-ACT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BUILDING A COLD POOL WHICH MAY PROVE EFFICIENT IN DRIVING CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT. ...CAROLINAS... SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS YET TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CONTINUED STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IT APPEARS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 05:43:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 00:43:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406050543.i555hA814563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050541 SWODY1 SPC AC 050538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE ANJ 25 SE TVC 25 ESE MKE 20 WNW BMI 15 N STL 25 SSE TBN 50 E FSM 35 SSW TXK 60 WNW LFK 35 E JCT 30 ENE FST 30 ENE CNM 50 NNW TCC 15 SW PUB 15 ENE COS 15 NE LIC 15 W GLD 25 SW MCK 20 NW MHE 45 SSW BJI 25 NW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 20 WNW LWT 20 E LVM 25 ENE MQM 45 ENE BOI 70 E BNO 25 W BKE 15 SW LWS 45 NNE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE JAX 15 WSW AYS 45 SW AGS 20 N CAE 15 SW SOP GSB 30 E EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 30 S SDY 50 NE RAP MBG 45 SW DVL 75 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE APN HTL 35 NNE BEH 15 WNW DNV 20 N CGI 35 WSW DYR 40 E GWO 30 W SEM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AND 15 SSE HKY 30 SE 5I3 20 WSW UNI 20 ENE MFD 15 W DUJ 30 NW ELM 25 W EEN 10 ENE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR 30 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 40 SSW 4CR 30 SW LVS 45 NE 4SL 25 NNE DRO 50 W MTJ 30 N U28 50 WNW PUC 30 W SLC 15 NE PIH 55 NNE OWY 90 SE BNO 30 SW BNO 50 SW PDT 35 SE EPH 45 N EAT 35 SSW YKM 55 NNE PDX 35 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SWWD INTO TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD WITHIN MEAN NWLY FLOW INTO THE MS VALLEY...TRAILING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL AFFECT OF THIS SUBTLE SHIFT EWD IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE TO FORCE A SFC BOUNDARY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NRN U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING. COMPLICATING FACTORS FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL AREAS FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. ONGOING CLUSTERS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN TX WHERE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MCS IS SURGING SEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY APPEAR STRONGEST ALONG SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN NM INTO KS. INCREASING LLJ INTO THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALSO FAVORS STORM INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST STORM MOTION WILL INITIALLY PROVE ERRATIC...OR PERHAPS A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITHIN AN AIRMASS LIKELY EXHIBITING SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG. WITH TIME AN EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR ONE OR MORE MCS/S TO DEVELOP...THEN SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS AS IT PROPAGATES INTO NORTH TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MN INTO ERN NEB...BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO A MORE MARGINAL ZONE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL MO. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ...NRN ROCKIES... A STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS ORE INTO ID LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH AN EVER INCREASING ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED FROM ERN WA/ORE INTO WRN MT. DESPITE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...STRONG FRONTAL ZONE AND AMPLE HEATING WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ID/WRN MT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO CENTRAL MT BEFORE WEAKENING. ...CAROLINAS... STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000J/KG WILL EVOLVE BY MID DAY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS WITHIN VEERED BUT CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING STABILIZES AIRMASS. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 12:47:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 07:47:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406051247.i55ClU817399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051245 SWODY1 SPC AC 051241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW HVR 20 WNW LWT 20 E LVM 25 ENE MQM 45 ENE BOI 70 E BNO 25 W BKE 15 SW LWS 45 NNE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 135 NE CMX 30 S ESC 25 ESE MKE 20 WNW BMI 15 N STL 25 SSE TBN 50 E FSM 35 SSW TXK 60 WNW LFK 35 E JCT 30 ENE FST 30 ENE CNM 50 NNW TCC 15 SW PUB 15 ENE COS 15 NE LIC 15 W GLD 25 SW MCK 20 NW MHE 45 SSW BJI 25 NW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE JAX 10 E ORL 30 WNW PBI 20 WNW MIA 45 W MIA 15 NNE FMY 30 NE PIE 25 SW GNV 45 WNW CTY 15 WNW AQQ 30 WSW MAI 45 SSE MCN 25 SW AGS 50 SSE CLT 10 WNW GSB 35 WSW HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 40 SSW 4CR 30 SW LVS 45 NE 4SL 25 NNE DRO 50 W MTJ 30 N U28 50 WNW PUC 30 W SLC 15 NE PIH 55 NNE OWY 90 SE BNO 30 SW BNO 50 SW PDT 35 E DLS 30 NNW DLS 55 ESE OLM 35 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 30 S SDY 50 NE RAP MBG 45 SW DVL 75 NW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR 30 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE APN HTL 35 NNE BEH 15 WNW DNV 20 N CGI 35 WSW DYR 40 E GWO 30 W SEM 25 E LGC 35 SSE AND 15 SSE HKY 30 SE 5I3 20 WSW UNI 20 ENE MFD 15 W DUJ 30 NW ELM 25 W EEN 10 ENE PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES INCLUDING INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FL... ...PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST GIVEN AFFECTS OF NUMEROUS MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION. NWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DROPS SEWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LEE-TROUGH/FRONT LOCATED FROM ND TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MIGRATE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TODAY AS THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE DIGS SEWD. STRONGEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH MN INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. IF MORNING CLOUDS CAN THIN...INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WEAKEN GIVEN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST. FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS. THE STRONGEST FEATURES APPEAR TO BE OVER ERN NEB AND OVER NCNTRL TX AND THE AFFECTS ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE VORT MAXIMA IS LESS UNSTABLE GIVEN RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF RECENT ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND MO AND OVER ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE CONDITIONAL BASED ON MAINTAINED INTEGRITY OF TSTMS ALONG THE MO RVR AND ACROSS NCNTRL TX THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STRONGER TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NM INTO KS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY APPEAR STRONGEST. AS THE LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS COLD POOL GENERATION INCREASES. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF N OR CNTRL TX AND OK. AGAIN...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL TSTM CLUSTERS WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ...NRN ROCKIES... TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH NRN ID INTO WRN MT TODAY. MOISTENING COLUMN IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEATING WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...SERN STATES INCLUDING INTERIOR FL... CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC INTO SERN GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...OTHER TSTMS WILL FORM ON SEABREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND MINUS 9C PER 12Z SOUNDINGS ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...PULSE MULTICELL TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:54:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:54:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406051954.i55Js0822558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051950 SWODY1 SPC AC 051947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE HVR 40 SE 3HT MQM 10 ESE 27U 80 SSE S80 10 SW S80 30 SSW S06 70 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MQT CWA LNK P28 FSI DAL 10 SSE TPL 15 SSE JCT INK 10 NNW CVS RTN LAA GLD IML MHN 30 WNW 9V9 ABR 25 N AXN 25 NNW ELO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 25 SE GNV 25 NW JAX 25 SW SAV 35 SSW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT JMS FAR 10 E GFK 55 W RRT ...CONT... 75 NNE APN AZO LAF DEC 40 SSW BLV 65 ENE LIT GLH 15 E LUL TOI ANB RMG 15 NNW GSP 15 SSE RDU 10 E NHK 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... 50 ENE CRP NIR DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN TCS 4CR ABQ 15 SE FMN GJT VEL BYI 10 NW OWY 20 NE BNO 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FL PEN... STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS INITIAL STRONG JET STREAK NOSES INLAND OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN PHASE. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PEELS AROUND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ...PLAINS... IN RESPONSE TO UPPER FLOW REGIME...LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LARGER-SCALE... BUT DESTABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO MAXIMIZE WITH STRONGEST HEATING NEAR BOUNDARY. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK BY EARLY EVENING... WHERE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR/SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH...WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SURGES THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ...WESTERN MONTANA... AS FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED... ENOUGH MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ON UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF GREAT FALLS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY MOST VIGOROUS CELLS AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 01:01:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 20:01:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406060100.i5610s806819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060059 SWODY1 SPC AC 060055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E EAU 25 ENE LSE 40 W LNR 40 N DSM 55 WNW LWD 30 S TOP 20 SE TUL 15 NE PRX 60 WNW LFK 35 NW AUS 30 ESE FST 15 ENE CNM 30 WNW TCC 30 WNW CAO 25 N EHA GCK 30 SSW HLC 20 SSW BBW 20 NW MHE 40 SSE AXN 50 NNW EAU 25 E EAU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 75 ENE LWT 35 WNW BIL 20 SSW BZN 15 NNE BTM 35 W GTF 25 NNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT 40 WSW P24 70 WSW DIK 20 SSW 4BQ 25 ESE COD 25 ENE IDA 40 NNW TWF 80 SSE BNO 55 SW BNO 65 NW BNO 10 NW PDT 35 S EPH 40 WSW YKM OLM 30 W BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR 30 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ENE APN 25 NE FNT 10 WNW JXN 30 W SBN 20 SSE BMI 35 WNW MDH 30 E JBR 40 E GWO MEI 60 SSW SEM 25 WNW DHN ABY 65 N AYS 45 S CAE 15 SW FLO 30 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 25 E ONM 30 N ABQ 45 ENE GUC 40 S LAR 10 ENE CYS 40 NW IML 20 SSE MHN 20 N 9V9 25 N HON 55 N ATY 15 NNE FAR 35 NW BJI 10 WNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF MT... ...SOUTH PLAINS... MULTIPLE EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL FAVOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF COLD POOL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MERGE AND BECOME AN EXPANSIVE MCS BEFORE DRIVING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND THE WRN HALF OF OK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO NWRN TX AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL TX. ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY... TRAILING PORTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE U.P. OF MI...SWWD INTO SERN SD. AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EWD...AND LLJ VEERS ACROSS WI INTO ONTARIO...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER FORCING WILL SHIFT INTO A MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ZONE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS MN INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES. ...MT... N-S LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF VERY STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LLJ WILL INCREASE OVER ERN MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH WILL FAVOR MAINTAINING THIS LINEAR ORGANIZATION WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG INFLOW BUT MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS LINE LIFTS ENEWD TOWARD THE MT/CANADA BORDER. ..DARROW.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 05:53:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 00:53:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406060553.i565r8809461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060550 SWODY1 SPC AC 060547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 50 ENE FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 15 SSW RAP 30 ENE 81V 25 NNW GCC 40 W SHR 45 S BIL 25 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WSW SDY 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 25 W DLH STC 20 N OTG 65 ENE ANW 55 N IML 20 N GLD 45 N DDC 25 W HUT 15 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 20 SE ALO 30 NE LNR 35 SSE ESC 10 NE ANJ ...CONT... 60 E MTC 25 ESE TOL 35 NNE LAF 20 ENE MTO 50 S BMG 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 50 SE ALM ABQ 40 ESE GUC 15 NNW FCL 35 N DGW 35 NE WRL 20 ESE MQM 35 NNW BNO 15 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 50 W HOU 40 WNW CLL 50 WNW AUS DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... NRN ROCKIES UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN MT INTO ND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS MT FORCING A COLD FRONT TO THE WRN ND BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO A POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SBCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG. EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODIFIED AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY WILL RETURN NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE 50S...TO POSSIBLE NEAR 60F DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS A SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE OVER WRN ND BY PEAK HEATING WITH A PSEUDO WARM FRONT-TYPE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER DURING THE EVENING. AS FORCING INCREASES OVER THE NRN PLAINS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER WRN ND. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATURE INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY INTO NWRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... MULTIPLE DAYS OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONSISTENTLY EVOLVED INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S BEFORE MOVING SEWD AND WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX. ALTHOUGH LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EWD SLIGHTLY...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING/INSTABILITY...IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG...SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN KS...ESPECIALLY IF OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE. IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY A REGION FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 12:45:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 07:45:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406061245.i56CjW815008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061243 SWODY1 SPC AC 061240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 50 ENE FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 15 SSW RAP 30 ENE 81V 25 NNW GCC 40 W SHR 45 S BIL 40 E 3HT 55 NE LWT 65 ESE HVR 65 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 50 W HOU 40 WNW CLL 50 WNW AUS DRT ...CONT... 80 SW GDP 50 SE ALM 40 WNW 4SL 40 NNE MTJ 15 NW CAG 40 S GCC 30 SW SHR 10 E MQM 45 NE SUN 30 ESE BOI 45 WSW BOI 45 SE RDM 40 WNW RDM 15 N ONP ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO 25 W DLH STC 20 N OTG 65 ENE ANW 55 N IML 20 N GLD 45 N DDC 25 W HUT 15 NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 20 SE ALO 30 NE LNR 35 SSE ESC 10 NE ANJ ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 ENE FDY 25 ENE LAF 25 W HUF 40 S BMG 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A LEAD MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG PAC NW JET WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SASK DURING MID-MORNING. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RENEGADE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BODY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FROM NERN CO TO NE WY/SWRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN MT. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...WILL REMAIN ACROSS CNTRL SD/ND. AS THE TSTMS TRANSLATE EWD...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GROW STRONGER WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A LARGE DEGREE OF CROSS-OVER BETWEEN THE LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW. NONETHELESS...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 30C WILL KEEP THE TORNADO RISK LOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR A 2 PERCENT PROBABILITY. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A MCS OR TWO AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN WITH RISKS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN LOWER MI... SRN PART OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GLANCE SRN LOWER MI DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH 12Z WHITE LAKE SOUNDING IS NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...NARROW AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND/HAIL THREATS FOR NOW. ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VLY... UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EWD TO LIE MAINLY E OF THE PLAINS TODAY. LAST NIGHTS TSTM CLUSTERS WEAKENED BEFORE DAYBREAK AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MS VLY MOST OF TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST FROM W-NERN TX EWD TO THE MS DELTA. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREATS. BUT...CAPE WILL BE HIGH AND A FEW TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ...ERN FL... MEAN SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AOB MINUS 8C AND GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. SEVERE COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 16:34:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 11:34:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406061634.i56GYV804056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061631 SWODY1 SPC AC 061628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 55 E FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 25 SSW RAP 81V 60 NNW REJ 30 SSE SDY 60 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP ABQ 30 E ASE 25 SSW LAR 20 ENE CPR 50 NW COD 55 NNE SUN 40 NW BNO 30 S ONP ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 35 NNW MFD 40 SSW FDY 45 SSE MIE 40 NE SDF 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W YKN 35 S AKO 15 NNE RTN 25 S CAO 35 NNW CSM 15 NNE TOP 35 NNW BRL 25 E ALO 55 W YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 20 WSW HIB 25 NNE STC 20 N MSP 25 WNW EAU 30 SSW ESC 60 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...DAKOTAS/NWRN MN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AS SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SYSTEM MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MT ATTM...AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD THE SRN PARTS OF SASK AND MAN IT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER ERN MT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND AS OCCLUDED LOW OVER ALTA MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO SASK. WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN NEB/SRN SD NWWD INTO MT LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO ND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AXIS OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT RAP/RIW AND GGW EXHIBIT A LAYER OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WRN ND WHERE PRIMARY FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE LOCATED...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SWD OVER PARTS OF WRN SD /ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS REGION/. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS INCREASING FROM SSELY FLOW OF 25-30 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW AT 500 MB. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NWRN MN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THIS REGION BUT IT APPEARS THAT MULTIPLE MCVS ARE APPARENT OVER NWRN TX...EXTREME NERN TX...AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS OF 65-75F PERSISTS FROM SRN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA AND EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. ...FL PENINSULA... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN FL /REF MCD 1114/ WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C WHICH ARE ENHANCING LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER SWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO PROPAGATE INLAND AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR PULSE STORMS FORMING/DISSIPATING AND DRY AIR AVAILABILITY EVIDENT IN MFL/JAX/XMR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 19:54:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 14:54:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406061954.i56JsY809374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061951 SWODY1 SPC AC 061948 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW INL 55 E FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 25 SSW RAP 40 W REJ 60 NNW REJ SDY 55 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ELP ABQ FMN 10 NE MTJ RWL 20 N DGW GCC 10 W SHR MQM 27U OLM 20 WNW CLM ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 30 ENE ROC BFD DUJ LBE HTS BWG BNA TYS SSU 30 N SHD 30 ENE CHO WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W YKN 35 S AKO LAA 10 SSE LBL 35 NNW CSM 15 NNE TOP 35 NNW BRL 25 E ALO 55 W YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL AXN 10 NNE RWF 15 ENE MKT 10 ENE EAU 30 SSW ESC 60 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...DAKOTAS... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/STRONGER JET CORE EMANATING FROM BROADER SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TURNING EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS OREGON. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PRECEDING THIS SHORT WAVE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EXIT REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET...WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LEAD SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS HEATING...AND BEGINNING TO MOISTEN MORE RAPIDLY. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NARROW TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS IS RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF THIS MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL OCCUR...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SPREADS EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS PHASING OF STRONGER LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CULMINATE IN RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE 07/00Z TIME FRAME...JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE RISK OF DOWNBURSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. OTHERWISE...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTH OF UPPER JET...ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST MONTANA... NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT RISK OF BRIEF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ...GULF COAST STATES... IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINGERING WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ARE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZES...IN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70S DEW POINTS. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...PRIMARILY WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT ALSO PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK... STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES...AND NEAR ANY CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 00:51:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 19:51:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406070051.i570pd820443@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070049 SWODY1 SPC AC 070046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 25 SSE TVF 10 SW FAR 40 SSE JMS 40 S BIS 20 SW DIK 25 ESE SDY 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE 7R4 35 NNE POE 20 SE GGG 25 SE SEP 55 SW SJT 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 10 WNW ELP ABQ 30 E DRO 20 NW GUC 35 N CYS 30 S RAP 35 NNW RAP 20 N GCC 15 NNW JAC 30 SSE BOI 65 NNW 4LW 45 E EUG 35 N PDX 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ELO 30 ENE STC 25 N RWF 30 SW BKX 20 WNW BBW 35 S IML 50 ESE LAA 25 NW GAG 25 ENE END 20 NE CNU 25 ENE SZL 20 NNW ALN 15 N OWB 55 NE HSV 45 NNE ATL 40 S SPA 30 S SOP 10 E ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER WRN ND THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WELL NORTH OF SFC LOW OBSERVED OVER NWRN SD. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE A VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SD AND ERN WY...MIXED THROUGH 500MB AT RAP. THIS PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY PREVENT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF SRN ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION...WITH AN INCREASING LLJ WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATIONAL INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AS MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD NWRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...MERGERS WILL SOON FAVOR AN INCREASING WIND/HAIL THREAT WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 05:51:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 00:51:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406070551.i575pH832293@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070549 SWODY1 SPC AC 070546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IWD 60 NNE MSP STC 35 N AXN BJI 15 WNW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 N LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 55 ENE ANW 40 NNE 9V9 20 SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 145 ENE APN 25 WNW OSC 15 WSW GRR 35 SSE SBN 20 ESE MIE 30 SE CMH 50 WSW RIC 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 ENE BML 20 WSW LCI 30 SE BGM 15 NW JHW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CTB HLN 30 NNE 27U 50 ESE BKE 50 S BNO 20 NW MHS CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 35 SSW ROW 45 SE SAF 35 N LVS 35 NE TAD 25 SSE LIC 25 SE CYS 25 SSW DGW 40 S GCC 40 NE 81V 10 SE Y22 10 WSW JMS 55 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MN...NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SERN SD INTO THE U.P. OF MI... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY... NRN HIGH PLAINS UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS ND INTO WRN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON FLATTENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM...E-W WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z WITH A RAPID WARM SECTOR RECOVERY WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. EARLY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS STATES WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SERN SD AT 05Z. LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL RETURN ACROSS MN/WRN WI INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO WRN WI. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...STRONG HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE INITIALLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN ONTARIO...THEN BUILD SWD WITHIN SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW BY 21Z. DESPITE THIS VEERED FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER VEERING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE WITHIN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR/NWRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STORM MERGERS AND BOW ECHO-TYPE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW...VERY WARM PLUME OF AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SD DURING THE DAY INITIALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEB...AND POSSIBLY ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN KS. HIGH THICKNESS VALUES AND WEAKER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ...ERN OK/NERN TX... REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE HAS PROVEN EFFICIENT IN LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL INFLUENCE OF LLJ ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE. ...SOUTH TX... DEEPENING SLY MOIST PLUME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHEAR AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MOIST PROFILES BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO WARRANT SOME MINIMAL RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 12:46:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 07:46:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406071246.i57Cka811463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071244 SWODY1 SPC AC 071241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW IWD 60 NNE MSP STC 35 N AXN BJI 15 WNW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 N LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 55 ENE ANW 40 NNE 9V9 20 SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 ENE BML 20 WSW LCI 30 SE BGM 15 NW JHW ...CONT... 145 ENE APN 25 WNW OSC 15 WSW GRR 35 SSE SBN 20 ESE MIE 30 SE CMH 50 WSW RIC 25 NE ECG ...CONT... 75 WNW MRF 35 SSW ROW 45 SE SAF 35 N LVS 35 NE TAD 25 SSE LIC 25 SE CYS 25 SSW DGW 40 S GCC 40 NE 81V 10 SE Y22 10 WSW JMS 55 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CTB HLN 30 NNE 27U 50 ESE BKE 50 S BNO 20 NW MHS CEC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/NERN MN...EXTREME NWRN WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD ACROSS ND AND INTO NWRN ON LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LOW DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. SURFACE WARM FRONT...SITUATED ACROSS NRN MN AT SUNRISE...WILL TRANSLATE NWD TO LIE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS INSIST THAT LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MN AND WRN WI NEWD THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD BENEATH PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN FACT...12Z SURFACE/ UPPER AIR ANALYSES ALREADY SHOW NEAR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER NCNTRL MN AND A 9.3 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AT ABERDEEN. AS WARM SECTOR RAPIDLY HEATS THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 4000-4500 J/KG ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. THOUGH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK...VIGOROUS HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TO AID IN CAP BREACH. FIRST INITIATION IS LIKELY OVER NWRN ONT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO NERN/CNTRL MN 21-00 UTC ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME TODAY...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 1KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 230 M2/S2...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT GIANT HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXTREME NWRN WI AND THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI DURING THE EVENING. AS THEY DO SO...COLD POOL GENERATION MAY TRANSITION SEVERE THREATS INTO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. FARTHER SW...VERY WARM MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL NOSE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO ERN SD AND SWRN MN. THIS WILL TEND TO DELAY ANY THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS MAY VERY WELL DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE/ LEE-TROUGH FROM WRN KS ACROSS NRN NEB INTO SWRN MN. RISKS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY... ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. ...ERN OK/NERN TX... IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT MCS/MCV OVER NCNTRL TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NERN TX DURING TODAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN TSTM INITIATION. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. ...FL... MIAMI...TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SAMPLE H5 TEMPERATURES OF AROUND MINUS 8C. HEATING...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZES AND THE RELATIVELY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL...PROBABLY FAVORING INLAND AREAS. ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SOUTH TX... INCREASINGLY MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY MIDLEVEL SHEAR AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MOIST PROFILES BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO WARRANT SOME MINIMAL RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 16:14:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 11:14:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406071614.i57GEc828427@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071610 SWODY1 SPC AC 071608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW IWD 65 NNE MSP 30 NE STC 20 WNW BRD BJI 15 WNW INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 25 NW LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 40 ENE ANW 20 WSW 9V9 20 SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 40 SE GTF 75 NW SUN 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 35 ESE 4CR 45 NE LVS 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 55 SW PHP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 15 NNW GRR 50 WSW FWA 20 SSW LUK 20 WNW BKW 35 W RIC 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 N PBG 35 N GFL ALB 10 SE BGM 20 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BBW 10 SSE MCK 35 NNW GCK 50 W GAG 35 WSW END 20 E EMP 20 NE MKC 35 ENE P35 10 WNW OTM 30 S ALO 45 SSE RST 25 WSW FOD 20 SSE OFK 25 SSE BBW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN INTO NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY ENEWD TO ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. VERY STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX...90-100 KT AT 500MB...WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG ND/CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. 40-50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MN INTO WI AND LS BY THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL VEERING TO WSWLY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT AT 15Z ALONG ERN BORDER OF ND THEN SSWWD INTO NCENTRAL NEB THEN TRAILING WSWWD INTO SRN WY. FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN INTO ARROWHEAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOW ITS SEWD MOVEMENT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEB PORTION. WITH THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN INTO WRN UP OF MICHIGAN MOVING N OF US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...ALL OF UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED BY THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CAPPED...VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXCEEDING 8C/KM AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES...THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF EXPLOSIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY AREA MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT CAP WILL GIVE WAY DURING THE MAX AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN MN. WITH SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 25KT...HELICITIES OF 200-300 J/KG AND MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG...DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SEEMS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY AS THE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION HAIL MODELS DO INDICATE THAT ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DOWNBURST WINDS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWWD VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS FAR S AS NRN NEB. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN THIS AREA OF OUTLOOK...HOWEVER WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE CAP REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL U.S. ...ERN OK/WRN AR... WEAK SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SCENTRAL OK IS NOW DRIFTING E OF N AND BY TONIGHT SHOULD BE INTO NERN OK. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT E AND SE OF UPPER LOW ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE IS LIKELY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR THIS PM. ...SERN U.S.. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF SERN U.S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE THREAT TO THE PULSE VARIETY LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY RANDOM IN NATURE...DRIVEN BY THE MESO-SCALE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 20:01:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 15:01:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406072000.i57K0s800613@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071957 SWODY1 SPC AC 071956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW IWD 30 SSW DLH 45 SSW HIB 45 E BJI INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 NW LSE 30 S FRM 25 S YKN 20 NNE ANW 9V9 25 SE ABR 20 SSE FAR 10 SE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 40 SE GTF 75 NW SUN 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 30 S 4CR 25 NW RTN 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 40 SW RAP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 55 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 15 NNW GRR 50 WSW FWA 20 SSW LUK 20 WNW BKW 35 W RIC 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 N PBG 35 N GFL ALB 10 SE BGM 20 WSW BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BBW 10 SSE MCK 35 NNW GCK 50 W GAG 25 NNW OKC 40 NNW MHK 35 NNW FNB 20 ENE LWD 10 WNW OTM 30 S ALO 35 N ALO 30 SW FOD 20 SSE OFK 25 SSE BBW. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN SD/EXTREME NERN NEB... UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN ONTARIO THIS EVENING...AND TO JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD INTO NWRN MN THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN NEB. NRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SRN PART OF FRONT REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN NEB. WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST SOUTH OF DLH THEN NWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD...ALTHOUGH THE NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE RETARDED BY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF COOL LAKE WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN SD NEWD INTO NRN MN...AND WARM 700 MB THERMAL AXIS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CAPPING SURFACE-BASED STORMS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN DURING THE 21-00Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN SWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT /SEE DLH VAD PROFILE/ CREATING STRONG SHEAR AND SRH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THE BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND PERMIT A WIDELY SCATTERED LINE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 00-02Z. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONGER CELLS AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS OVER EXTREME NERN NEB/ERN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING FLORIDA PENINSULA... VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70-75F RANGE. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE A FEW WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ...ERN TX... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THEY MAY DEVELOP AN AGGREGATE OUTFLOW SPREADING NWD WITH TIME. THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS NWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...NERN OK INTO ERN KS/WRN MO... CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD OVER CENTRAL OK...WITH GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE ROTATION. STRONGER HEATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY RESULT IN NEW STORM FORMATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..WEISS.. 06/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 01:02:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 20:02:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406080102.i58128813614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080059 SWODY1 SPC AC 080057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 NW LSE 30 S FRM 25 WNW OFK 15 SW BBW 60 WNW LBF 60 W VTN 50 N VTN 15 WNW HON 20 NNE ATY 45 E FAR 35 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 S 4CR 25 NW RTN 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 40 SW RAP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 55 W RRT ...CONT... 50 N FCA 15 S 3DU 35 SW 27U 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 25 NNE BEH 40 NW LAF 40 NNE EVV 35 SW LEX 30 W BKW 25 NNW RWI 15 ESE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW EAR 40 ESE MCK 10 NE GCK 30 SSE AMA 15 SSW BGS 25 WSW SJT 25 WSW BWD 30 E SPS 25 WNW TUL 45 ENE MKC 10 W OTM 30 S ALO 40 W ALO 50 ESE SUX 20 SSE OFK 20 N GRI 20 SW EAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEB... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DEPICT A MUCH STRONGER CAP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF WARM AIR ADVECTING EWD AROUND 700MB...ROUGHLY 13C...ACROSS SD...SRN HALF OF MN INTO WI. AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS ONTARIO...LLJ IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT/DEEP CONVERGENCE. OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE IS THE EXPECTED INCREASE TO THE LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL IMPINGE ON THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN SD/NRN NEB. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-4HRS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT SOON DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD IT APPEARS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL MN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF ACTIVITY CAN GENERATE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NRN MN WOULD HOWEVER LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. FARTHER SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONT INTO NEB WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS AT THIS TIME. ...MIDDLE UPPER TX COAST... DEEP SLY FLOW OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS AIDED NWD EXPANDING MCS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN TX. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP SUPPORTS THIS NWD EXPANSION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 05:41:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 00:41:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406080541.i585f3819181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080539 SWODY1 SPC AC 080537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 25 ENE BIE 25 N RSL 35 S GLD 30 WSW LIC 30 W FCL 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 WNW YKM 25 SE YKM 35 NNW ALW 25 WNW S06 30 NE MSO 45 W BIL 50 SW MBG 55 N ATY 25 ENE BRD 85 NW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EPM 15 SE MPV 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 25 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 45 E JAC 25 E MQM 65 SW 27U 80 WNW OWY 25 N LOL 25 ENE TVL 35 NW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NRN CA. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR LITTLE SWD MOVEMENT TO THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SWWD INTO NEB. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT. LATE EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DEPICTED A VERY WARM CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PLUME OF ELEVATED AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPLIED FROM UPSTREAM HEAT SOURCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FORCE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE...PER RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY LATE AFTERNOON STRONG SFC HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO BREAK CAP ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NERN CO. WITH INCREASING ELY COMPONENT NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO SERN WY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT EVOLVE. EWD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE...NORTH OF THE FRONT...IS EXPECTED AS LLJ INCREASES SHORTLY AFTER DARK. ...NRN MAINE... WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BORDER DURING THE DAY. DEEPENING WLY COMPONENT WILL DRIVE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN CANADA TOWARD NRN PORTIONS OF NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STRONGEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL NOT APPROACH THIS REGION UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 12:56:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 07:56:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406081255.i58Ctx802257@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081254 SWODY1 SPC AC 081252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS 25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 30 WSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 30 SSE BGS 45 NNW CDS 40 NE GAG 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 WNW YKM 25 SE YKM 35 NNW ALW 25 WNW S06 30 NE MSO 10 S 3HT 45 SSE GDV 20 N DVL 45 N TVF 20 NNE AXN 15 SSE DLH 50 N CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EPM 20 S MPV 15 SSW ROC 30 NW CLE 30 S FDY 40 WNW UNI 40 ENE EKN 25 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 45 E JAC 25 E MQM 65 SW 27U 80 WNW OWY 25 N LOL 25 ENE TVL 35 NW SFO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID / UPPER LOW CENTER NOW OVER ORE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD WITH TIME INTO NRN CA...WITH RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD. BELT OF STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT -- WITHIN HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND CENTRAL / ERN CANADA TROUGH -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD / NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS / MIDDLE MO VALLEYS TO A LOW CENTER IN ERN CO. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS CANADA AND APPROACH NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PERSISTS OVER ERN CO. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TX NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO MO / IL / IN ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM WITHIN WARM ADVECTION N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB AND THE DAKOTAS...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG / N OF BOUNDARY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES / WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ALONG MUCH OF FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. NONETHELESS...CONVECTION / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION WITHIN BROAD / PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG / N OF FRONT. ...MAINE... ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL ETA SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ETAKF AND RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WHICH WOULD DEVELOP WOULD POSE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WHICH IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ETAKF / RUC GUIDANCE AND THUS MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ASSUMING STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AGAIN SUGGESTS A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NRN ME. ...SRN FL... MORNING EYW / MIA SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH H5 TEMPERATURE NEAR -9C. THIS WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND A FEW SEVERE REPORTS WITH MORE INTENSE STORM PULSES -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG W COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 16:28:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 11:28:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406081628.i58GS8215561@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081625 SWODY1 SPC AC 081623 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS 25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 25 ESE JAC 15 SSW MQM 75 SW 27U 65 WSW BOI 65 NW WMC 30 W LOL 25 ENE TVL 50 NNE MER 25 W MER 15 S SJC 40 NW SFO ...CONT... 55 E BLI 40 NW EAT 15 N EPH GEG 25 WNW S06 LWT 35 WNW GCC 35 S 81V 25 N RAP 10 NNE Y22 45 NE BIS 25 WSW GFK 30 N BJI 40 N HIB 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 15 SE EFK 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 35 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA BY 12Z WED. DOWNSTREAM MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND WARM LAPSE RATES. THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING RAPIDLY ENEWD SRN CANADA CURRENTLY CROSSING JAMES BAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS REMAINING PRIMARILY N OF CONUS. THERE WILL BE FRINGE EFFECTS ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX PASSES BY TO THE N. TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THRU CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES... WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AIR MASS VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN AND WI. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KT MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A MULTI-CELL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STORMS WILL BE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. UPSLOPE ELYS N OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WWD VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE E CO...WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD TO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/SERN WY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...SERN U.S... AGAIN TODAY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MDT LAPSE RATES WITH MINUS 9C TEMP AT 500MB MUCH OF AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. TYPICALLY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ...SRN PLAINS... THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX UNDER WAY SRN PLAINS IS ACCOMPANIED BY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON CENTRAL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AREA GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND VERY LOW LCL'S. ...NRN ME... WITH THE STRONG WIND MAX PASSING BY TO THE N OF ME TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 16:29:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 11:29:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406081628.i58GSh215948@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081627 SWODY1 SPC AC 081625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS 25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP 25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 25 ESE JAC 15 SSW MQM 75 SW 27U 65 WSW BOI 65 NW WMC 30 W LOL 25 ENE TVL 50 NNE MER 25 W MER 15 S SJC 40 NW SFO ...CONT... 55 E BLI 40 NW EAT 15 N EPH GEG 25 WNW S06 LWT 35 WNW GCC 35 S 81V 25 N RAP 10 NNE Y22 45 NE BIS 25 WSW GFK 30 N BJI 40 N HIB 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 15 SE EFK 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 35 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG 30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA BY 12Z WED. DOWNSTREAM MUCH OF THE AREA E OF ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND WARM LAPSE RATES. THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING RAPIDLY ENEWD SRN CANADA CURRENTLY CROSSING JAMES BAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS REMAINING PRIMARILY N OF CONUS. THERE WILL BE FRINGE EFFECTS ACROSS MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX PASSES BY TO THE N. TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THRU CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD PLAINS AND MS VALLEY TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES... WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AIR MASS VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN AND WI. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KT MUCH OF THIS AREA...THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A MULTI-CELL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STORMS WILL BE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE. UPSLOPE ELYS N OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WWD VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE E CO...WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD TO FRONT RANGE. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/SERN WY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...SERN U.S... AGAIN TODAY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MDT LAPSE RATES WITH MINUS 9C TEMP AT 500MB MUCH OF AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. TYPICALLY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ...SRN PLAINS... THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX UNDER WAY SRN PLAINS IS ACCOMPANIED BY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON CENTRAL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AREA GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND VERY LOW LCL'S. ...NRN ME... WITH THE STRONG WIND MAX PASSING BY TO THE N OF ME TODAY...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 20:10:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 15:10:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406082010.i58KAI208029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082005 SWODY1 SPC AC 082003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE OSC 40 NW MKG 55 E OMA GLD 10 NNW LIC 20 NNW DEN 45 N LAR 25 E DGW 45 WNW CDR 55 WNW VTN 35 ESE MHE 20 E MSP 45 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 35 WNW EAT 15 NE 3TH 30 NNW 3HT 40 N SHR 30 SSW 4BQ 40 ESE 4BQ 40 WSW BIS 25 W GFK 40 W INL ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 25 SE EFK 30 NNW UCA 20 W BFD 40 SSE FKL 30 SSE LBE 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 75 SW GDP 50 NE 4CR 35 SW COS 40 E RWL 25 NNW JAC 65 NNE BOI 70 NNW WMC 15 E RNO 40 NE SCK 35 NE SFO 55 S UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BGS 50 S CDS 50 WSW END 30 W EMP 10 SSW MHK 25 SSE CNK 30 SW RSL 20 ESE EHA 50 WSW AMA 40 E HOB 15 WNW BGS 45 NE BGS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO. PARTIAL CLEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S F ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORM INITIATION HAS BEEN PREVENTED BY A CAPPING INVERSION OVER CO AND NEB. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP BY 21Z AND INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA ACROSS SW AND CNTRL NEB...REF MD 1140. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN THIS AREA FROM ABOUT 30 KT TO ABOUT 40 KT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS MOST LIKELY DUE TO A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS WCNTRL NEB. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB. THIS IS CREATING CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS THE SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE EWD SUPERCELL TRACK POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MATURE EARLY THIS EVENING. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS SW AND CNTRL NEB WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NEB WHERE SFC TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GREATER. A CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS...SHOULD TRACK NEWD REACHING IA...SRN MN AND WI LATER TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS SEEN ON THE 18Z DAVENPORT IA SOUNDING. ...NRN ME... SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN QUEBEC ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WHERE MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG). THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN ME...THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KT COULD HELP THE STORMS RETAIN A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN ME BY EARLY EVENING. ...FL... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING WRN FL ATTM. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL FAVOR PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL FAVOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO AROUND FT MYERS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BY EVENING AS THE AIR STABILIZES. ..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 06:01:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 01:01:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406090600.i5960e212516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090558 SWODY1 SPC AC 090557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 45 NNE MSV 25 W BFD 35 NNW MFD 35 N LAF 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 25 NNE MKG 75 ESE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS 30 NNE RWL 40 WNW CPR 35 WSW GCC 15 S 81V 40 NNW CDR 50 ENE AIA 20 SE MHN 25 ESE BUB 15 SSW OLU 40 E HSI 50 ENE HLC 40 SSE GLD 30 SSE LHX 15 WNW PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 WSW CYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS 30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 40 NE JMS 25 W AXN 50 NNE MSP 10 NNE RHI 15 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FROM SERN WY TO ERN CO... ...SRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RISE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AIRMASS HAS GRADUALLY MOISTENED UPSTREAM FROM THIS REGION WITH SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG. DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY STEEP...ROUGHLY 6-6.5C/KM...FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. MEAN WIND VECTOR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A MORE SLY COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR GRADUAL COOLING AT CAPPING LEVELS AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH PERSISTENT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S/60S IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER EACH DAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN WY INTO NEB PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE MOIST WITH TIME. LATEST THINKING IS DIURNAL INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NEWD MOVEMENT/OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO NEB WHERE LLJ SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...TX... N-S DEEP LAYER SHEAR AXIS HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WWD SHIFT IS OBSERVED. VERY MOIST PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OF SOME CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES...AT LEAST 20KT IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..DARROW/GUYER.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 13:03:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 08:03:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406091303.i59D3G206922@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091300 SWODY1 SPC AC 091258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N LAR 45 NNW RIW 40 S LVM 30 SE BTM 60 SSW MSO 10 ESE 3TH FCA 15 NW GTF 30 NW SHR 20 NE 81V 55 ENE CDR 20 ENE MHN 15 N BUB 25 N GRI 10 NNW HSI 30 SSW EAR 35 NW GLD 25 SW LAA 15 WNW PUB 20 SE 4FC 45 N LAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 15 SW MSV 15 NNW PIT 20 WSW MFD 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 30 WSW HTL 75 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS 30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 35 SSE DVL 60 N ATY 55 NW RWF 30 S STC 15 SW IMT 30 ENE PLN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH OVER CA MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN ATTM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...BELT OF STRONGER SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD. MEANWHILE...MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND ERN CANADA TROUGH. ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ANTICYCLONICALLY NNEWD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NERN CONUS...WHILE LINGERING IN AN E-W DIRECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN NWWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWWD ACROSS WY INTO WRN MT... WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION JUST N OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION -- WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWWD...WHERE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE -- MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- ACROSS THIS REGION. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY...EXPECT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...AND MAY ALSO SPREAD EWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NEB AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ...NRN IL EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS SRN ONTARIO / THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST /60S DEWPOINTS/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON...FUELING THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WITHIN MORE STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER WIND FIELD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUGGEST A HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY WEAKER INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVERLAPS WITH STRONGER FLOW -- PERHAPS ACROSS VT / NH / SRN ME -- A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER THREAT MAY EXIST...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED ATTM IN TERMS OF LOCATING ANY POTENTIAL AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITY. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 16:21:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 11:21:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406091621.i59GL0220609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091618 SWODY1 SPC AC 091616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW LAR 45 NW LND 50 NW PIH 40 N SUN 60 SSW MSO 10 ESE 3TH FCA 15 NW GTF 30 NW SHR 20 NE 81V 55 ENE CDR 20 ENE MHN 15 N BUB 25 N GRI 10 NNW HSI 30 SSW EAR 40 SSE GLD 45 ENE TAD 30 SW COS 20 SE 4FC 40 NNW LAR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 15 SW MSV 15 NNW PIT 20 WSW MFD 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 30 WSW HTL 75 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS 30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 60 NNW UKI 25 N ACV ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 35 SSE DVL FAR 30 W BRD 65 SSW DLH 35 S IWD 30 ENE ESC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONP 35 NW PDX 10 NW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPR OH VALLEY EWD TO NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WNWWD INTO SWRN MT/SERN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG TROUGH THAT HAS DEEPENED INTO NV WILL MOVE EWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS AS VIGOROUS SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. WEAK UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER EJECTING NEWD INTO SRN PLAINS AS TROPICAL SLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE MOVING INTO NERN U.S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. FRONT TRAILS WSWWD AND BECOMES STATIONARY THRU NRN IA...CENTRAL NEB/NWRN KS AND WWD INTO CENTRAL CO. SURFACE LOW NRN NV/UT BORDER AREA WILL DEEPEN NEWD INTO WRN WY TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...NERN U.S... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON FROM UPR OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE VERY STRONG WLYS HEADING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL CIN...WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS FREEZING AND WBZ LEVELS ARE HIGH. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES ENHANCING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WNWWD ACROSS WY/SRN MT AND ERN ID. UPSLOPE FLOW TO N OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD FROM NERN CO INTO MUCH OF WY... AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SWRN MT/SERN ID. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY HIGH TERRAIN WY/NRN CO AND SPREAD E/NEWD INTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES TO 1500-2500 J/KG ERN CO/WY AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ON N SIDE OF FRONTAL ZONE...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO LIKELY. AS UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION INCREASE NEWD ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS SERN ID/SWRN MT WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SHEAR FOR A LEAST HIGH BASED STORMS. ...SRN PLAINS... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A VERY TROPICAL SLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF VORT MAX EJECTING FROM NRN MEXICO. WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG THERE CONTINUES A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER ERN TX. THREAT IS CONSIDERED TOO BE TO MARGINAL FOR A RISK AREA. ...FL... VERY SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE IS PLENTIFUL PW AND HIGH CAPES IN FL. SINCE 500MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY COOL...MINUS 9C...PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:12:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:12:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406092012.i59KCC221551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092006 SWODY1 SPC AC 092004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LAA 25 ENE TAD 30 WSW PUB 15 NNE 4FC 35 NE RWL 40 SSW JAC 45 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 15 ENE LWS 45 WNW S06 70 NNW 3TH 45 WNW FCA 30 NNE FCA 45 N LWT 15 S ANW 25 SE BBW 40 SSW EAR 60 N GCK 35 S LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BML 15 NW EPM ...CONT... 10 WSW HYA 20 SE FWA 30 NW LAF 40 WSW MMO 35 NE MLI 25 SSW MSN 40 N MKE 105 E OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 WSW ONM 60 WNW GUP 55 ESE SGU 45 WSW DRA 10 N FAT 35 ESE UKI ACV ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 35 SSW GFK 10 S BRD 30 NNW RHI 25 SE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 35 WNW PDX 10 ESE CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WITH A COLD POOL IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM NW OH EWD TO SRN NY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EWD...THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NY AND NRN PA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS NY AND NRN PA...RANGING FROM 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM. OTHER SEVERE STORMS CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN NY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS NH...VT AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO VERY LITTLE SHEAR...THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD LOSE THEIR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE DENVER AREA EXTENDING EWD INTO NW KS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN WY AND FAR NRN CO IS WEAKER BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THAT AREA. BACKED SFC FLOW OVER ERN CO AND SRN WY IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS VEERING COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE CO AND LOWER LCLS ACROSS NE CO AND SE WY WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FARTHER NW ACROSS NW WY...ERN ID AND SWRN MT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUIET STRONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. SBCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:23:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:23:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406092022.i59KMa227408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092015 SWODY1 SPC AC 092013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S LAA 25 ENE TAD 30 WSW PUB 15 NNE 4FC 35 NE RWL 40 SSW JAC 45 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 15 ENE LWS 45 WNW S06 70 NNW 3TH 45 WNW FCA 30 NNE FCA 45 N LWT 15 S ANW 25 SE BBW 40 SSW EAR 60 N GCK 35 S LAA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JFK 35 NW LAF 40 WSW MMO 35 NE MLI 25 SSW MSN 40 N MKE 105 E OSC ...CONT... 35 NNW BML 15 NW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 35 WNW PDX 10 ESE CLM ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 35 SSW GFK 10 S BRD 30 NNW RHI 25 SE ANJ ...CONT... 35 WNW ELP 35 WSW ONM 60 WNW GUP 55 ESE SGU 45 WSW DRA 10 N FAT 35 ESE UKI ACV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES... CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC ...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES... A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WITH A COLD POOL IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CHICAGO AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM NW OH EWD TO SRN NY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EWD...THE STORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NY AND NRN PA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA SHOW WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS NY AND NRN PA...RANGING FROM 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM. OTHER SEVERE STORMS CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN NY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING A COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS NH...VT AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO VERY LITTLE SHEAR...THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD LOSE THEIR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING. ...HIGH PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE DENVER AREA EXTENDING EWD INTO NW KS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN WY AND FAR NRN CO IS WEAKER BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THAT AREA. BACKED SFC FLOW OVER ERN CO AND SRN WY IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS VEERING COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE CO AND LOWER LCLS ACROSS NE CO AND SE WY WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. FARTHER NW ACROSS NW WY...ERN ID AND SWRN MT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUIET STRONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. SBCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 01:22:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 20:22:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406100121.i5A1Ll232280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100119 SWODY1 SPC AC 100117 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW FCA 35 E FCA 25 E LWT 35 S BIL 10 SW JAC 15 NW PIH 30 W 27U 40 ENE LWS 40 NW 3TH 40 WNW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BUB 20 W GRI 20 WNW LBL 45 WNW EHA 20 ESE LHX LIC 15 SE LAR 25 SSW DGW 30 ENE DGW 55 NW MHN 25 NNE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE NEL 30 N BWI 20 SSE MGW 20 WSW PKB 35 W CMH 15 NE FDY 15 W JXN 20 SW MBS 30 N MTC ...CONT... 30 NNE JHW 25 NE BOS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S UMN 10 WSW MLC 35 NNW ADM OKC 30 N BVO 15 N JLN 20 S UMN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF 40 NNE SAF 35 NNW DRO 10 SSW MLF 55 SSE BIH 10 E MER 35 ESE UKI ACV ...CONT... 20 SSE CEC 20 NE SLE 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 50 NNE ATY 10 W RWF 35 NW OSH OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH A SMALL PARTS OF SERN KS...SWRN MO... ...NERN U.S.... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM MAINE SWWD THROUGH SRN MI...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL MULTICELL LINES OF STORMS PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...CNTRL PLAINS... STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN MCS DUE IN PART TO NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NEB. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN MOIST UNSTABLE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN MT TONIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS N OF NWD DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE/BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SW MO... LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. SELY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET E OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY (300-400 M2/S2) FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SW MO. STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING WITH SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LINES OBSERVED. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM BELOW VERY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN THEAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING... MAINLY WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NERN OK. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. ..DIAL.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 05:58:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 00:58:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406100557.i5A5vv222879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100555 SWODY1 SPC AC 100553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW YKN 30 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 60 S Y22 9V9 60 WSW YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ORF 40 WNW HTS 15 NW BRL 35 NNE CID 25 WSW LNR 20 NW SBN 25 NW LBE 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW 20 ESE EHA 15 NNW BFF 55 SW MLS 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E HUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RRT 50 SSW DLH 40 ENE EAU 50 NE MKE 30 SSE DTW 20 NNW FKL 30 NE MSV 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 30 W EHA 40 SSE LIC 30 SSW DEN 35 W ASE 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 20 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH SRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS IN BASE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NRN WY AND ERN MT. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS...SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM NEB INTO WY WILL LIFT NWD INTO CNTRL OR NRN SD DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH AN OCCLUSION EXTENDING NWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S RESIDES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS S OF WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH IA AND NEB. MODERATELY STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WY/MT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH AND NWWD THROUGH MUCH OF SD. INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME N OF THE WARM FRONT. S OF THIS BOUNDARY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS...NEB AND SD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB/NWRN KS AND NWWD ALONG AND NE OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THROUGH SD INTO SERN MT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT ALONG WITH A SLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SD NWWD INTO MT...WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND BACKED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST. STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SWD FROM NEB INTO KS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DISCRETE LONGER. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN MDT RISK AREA THROUGH MID EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE STRONGLY FROM WRN KS SWD INTO PARTS OF NW TX. INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN WEAKER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MIXING COMMENCES AND AS BAND OF STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS S OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS NW TX. MOREOVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ...ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI AREA... STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST N OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA. VORT MAX NOW OVER SE KS/SW MO WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND N OF WARM FRONT FROM PARTS OF IA THROUGH NRN IL. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM ERN IA/NRN IL. HOWEVER...GIVEN PERSISTENT ONGOING STORMS...THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND S OF E-W COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED... KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 13:07:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 08:07:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406101307.i5AD7U218488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101305 SWODY1 SPC AC 101303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 40 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 40 S Y22 9V9 50 NE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ORF 35 WNW HTS 15 NNW BRL 30 ENE CID 30 SW LNR 20 NW SBN 25 NW LBE 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW 20 ESE EHA 15 NNW BFF 55 SW MLS 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E HUT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 10 SW EAU 30 ESE VOK 45 WNW MKG 25 S MTC 20 ENE ERI 30 NE MSV 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 30 WNW EHA 40 NNE LHX 30 SSW DEN 35 W ASE 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB...AND NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. ALONG WITH THIS TROUGH...INCREASINGLY-STRONG SWLY / SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS NRN PA INTO IA. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED / SEGMENTED WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...AS BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS FROM ERN MT SWD INTO ERN NM. WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN WHICH MODELS FORECAST SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS. ALTHOUGH WEAK WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENTS MAY EXIST WITH EACH OF THESE LOWS...IT APPEARS THAT BACKED / SELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. ...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS... EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH / FRONT / DRYLINE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN MT SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. INCREASINGLY-STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA -- PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND WRN NEB NWD INTO THE WRN 2/3 OF SD WHERE MORE SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MODE SHOULD INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR...TREND -- PARTICULARLY FROM NEB NWD -- MAY BE TOWARD LINEAR / MCS MODE...PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS / VEERS WITH TIME. ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / NEB TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEVERE THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SRN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH STRONGER UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK / N TX. THIS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW LOCAL BREACHING OF CAP AND ASSOCIATED / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW / DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. ...MIDWEST ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION ATTM -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN IL ESEWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG SURFACE FRONT DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED...AXIS OF MODERATE WNWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ATTM...POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. ..GOSS.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 16:43:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 11:43:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406101643.i5AGhR231787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101638 SWODY1 SPC AC 101636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BUB 40 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 40 S Y22 9V9 50 NE BUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ORF 45 WSW RIC 30 ENE SSU 15 W MGW 15 NNE LBE 25 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW EHA 20 NNW BFF 10 SSW GCC 35 E BIL 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E HUT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S JLN 10 SW MKC 10 NNW LWD MLI 10 NE MMO 40 SSE SBN 10 W MIE BMG 15 WSW SLO 30 SSE TBN 20 NNW HRO 20 S JLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO 20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...NEB...AND NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER ID MOVING ENEWD WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE SRN AND SERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN WY IS NOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE OVR SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS OVER WY WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO AND ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND WRN ND TONIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TODAY...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER NERN CO. THE ASSOCIATED DRY LINE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING SWRN SD/WRN NEB/WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z AND WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO NEB/KS/OK AND WILL INHIBIT HEATING ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE DRY LINE WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMAL WHICH WILL PROMOTE MORE RAPID DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AS DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN WY VORTICITY MAX COUPLES WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION TO RELEASE INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH SUPERCELL FORMATION LIKELY. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO WRN SD AND WRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A BAND OR BROKEN LINE DURING THE EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD AND NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE. THE ETA APPEARS TOO DRY IN THE POTENTIAL CLOUD LAYER FOR THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME TO ACTIVATE DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE THE ETAKF DEVELOPS CELLS OVER KS SWD INTO WRN TX. EXPECTATIONS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODEL OUTPUT. 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATING THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 04-6Z. ...LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS VALLEY... SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY. AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS SOUTH OF PRECIPITATION BAND FROM IA INTO NRN IL INDICATE REGION WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH VAD/PROFILERS SHOWING 30-40 KT FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA. BREAKS IN CLOUDS FROM SRN PA TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL ALLOW LOCAL AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 20:21:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 15:21:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406102021.i5AKLL210828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102015 SWODY1 SPC AC 102013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HLC 40 ENE GLD 25 S IML 30 SE CDR 55 NE CDR 25 SSE PHP 45 W 9V9 40 SSW 9V9 15 ESE EAR 40 NE HLC 15 W HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CDS 30 WSW CDS 25 ENE AMA 30 NNE EHA 35 NE AKO 55 NNE DGW 70 E BIL 70 WNW MLS 40 SSW OLF 15 ENE SDY 30 SSW P24 40 ENE MBG 35 SSW MHE 45 ESE HSI 45 SW END 15 SSW LTS 20 SSE CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 30 NNE RIC 30 SSE CHO 25 SSE ROA 15 E PSK 15 WSW SSU 15 SSW EKN 45 WNW MRB 15 S CXY 25 SSE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SLO 15 NNW ALN 50 NNE COU 15 NNE IRK 35 WNW BRL 15 NNW PIA 20 S LAF 10 SSE LUK 40 ENE LEX 30 SE LEX 55 SW LEX 40 WSW SDF 25 E SLO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15 SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO 20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB...CNTRL NEB...SRN SD AND NW KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...GREAT PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW IN NE CO WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN IA. AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NM AND SE CO WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE SCATTERED STORM INITIATION OCCURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FAVOR STORM INITIATION BY 22Z EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB. THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...NW KS AND SRN SD WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NW KS AND CNTRL NEB WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD STRONG ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A LARGE MCS SHOULD DEVELOP...TRACKING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB...ERN SD REACHING MN AND IA LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY. ...OH VALLEY... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN IL ACROSS NRN IND. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MO AND AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST CONSIDERING THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WV EXTENDING ESEWD INTO ERN VA WHERE SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY NOTABLY ACROSS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 T0 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FLOW IS PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL...FROM THE W AND NW AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR SEWD MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 04:29:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 23:29:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406110429.i5B4T2207711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110111 SWODY1 SPC AC 110109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BMI BRL 25 ENE CID 35 W JVL 25 NNW CGX 40 S SBN 25 NW MIE 30 E IND 15 E BMG 30 NE MTO 30 WSW BMI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABR 45 N RWF 25 N FOD 10 SSW FNB 20 WNW EMP 10 W HUT 45 WSW RSL 30 SSE MHN 65 S Y22 50 WNW SHR 75 WNW MLS 15 N SDY 55 NNE ABR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SW HIB 30 ESE EAU 20 WNW GRR 25 NW LBE JFK ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 40 ENE LBB GCK 15 NNW IML 35 SE MTJ 15 SW 4HV 55 NE ENV 20 SSE HLN 55 NE FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND... ...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM EXTREME NRN KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND CNTRL SD. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS FROM NRN KS NWD THROUGH NEB REMAIN DISCRETE...AND BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES... WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE AS ONE OR MORE MCSS AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST LATE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB...WRN IA AND SERN SD. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD COMMENCE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. ...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN IND WWD THROUGH NRN IL AND CNTRL IA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH IL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND. THE 00Z RAOB FROM CNTRL IL SHOWED SURFACE-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 BASED ON OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AND ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...SRN PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS REMAIN ACTIVE WITHIN IN ZONE OF MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM SW KS SWWD THROUGH W TX. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWS THE EML HAS SPREAD EWD OVER TOP OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AN EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA IS CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATING A STORM. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THREAT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE CAP STRENGTHENS. ..DIAL.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 12:47:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 07:47:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406111247.i5BClJ208957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111244 SWODY1 SPC AC 111242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EWN 50 N RWI PSK 15 WSW HTS 35 NNW SDF MDH 10 SW CGI SGF 20 NW MKO ABI BGS 35 ESE PVW P28 15 NW MHK SUX 40 WSW FAR TVF HIB CWA 10 ESE MKE 10 SSE CGX LAF MIE MFD PIT MRB DCA 15 NE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 35 SSW MAF 30 E PVW 15 WSW SLN 10 N CNK 45 N GRI 10 WSW 9V9 20 NE RAP 55 SSW GCC 55 NW CAG 55 NNE U28 25 E U24 55 S ENV 10 W BOI 25 SE LWS 35 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 70 NNW CMX 50 ESE ESC 15 ESE FNT 15 NNW CLE 20 ENE HGR 20 E DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... SEVERAL LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ARE STILL PROMINENT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THIS INCLUDES LEAD SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME/NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES...AS STRONG UPSTREAM JET STREAK...ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF ALASKA CLOSED LOW...NOSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. ...PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITH BROADER SCALE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHEAST PROGRESSION INTO MANITOBA AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RATHER SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE EASTERN LIMIT TO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE THREAT... BUT SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROGGED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY...BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER IOWA BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LIFT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE ENHANCED BY SHARP CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...FORCING MOIST/MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA WILL REMAIN AROUND 70F...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BY LATE AFTERNOON ...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE RANGE FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AFTER 12/00Z... AS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS AND VEERS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY COMPONENT. GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO LIE ALONG/ NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF FORT DODGE IA INTO THE WATERLOO AREA. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ARE POSSIBLE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIMIT CAPE AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT. ALONG DRY LINE TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVE INHIBITIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS DRY LINE BEGINS TO RETREAT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ...OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NORTHEAST... DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE THREAT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOIST AND WILL BECOME POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OUT OF ONGOING STORMS OVER CENTRAL OHIO...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT UP QUICKLY THROUGH MID DAY AHEAD OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN 30-35 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME. MID-LEVEL/UPPER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH CLUSTER ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO COOL/STABILIZE. ..KERR/GUYER.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 16:36:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 11:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406111635.i5BGZq218576@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111633 SWODY1 SPC AC 111631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE 25 SSE LNR 35 NW MLI 40 N OTM 35 S FOD 20 ENE OTG 35 NNE RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU 25 ESE LSE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE EWN 50 NNW RWI 15 WSW PSK 25 SSE JKL 30 SSW SDF 10 SW MDH 20 WSW CGI 15 SW SGF 25 S TUL 10 W ABI 35 ENE BGS 15 SSW CDS 30 NW END 35 N MHK 10 WNW SUX 10 SSW BIS 50 N MOT 55 WNW RRT 15 SW CWA MKE 15 SSW CGX 10 W LAF 35 W MIE 20 S CMH 20 SSW HLG 20 SW MRB 10 WNW DCA 15 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 35 SE AZO 20 WNW CAK 30 WNW DOV 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 W CSM 10 NNW HUT 15 ENE GRI 50 NE BUB 40 W 9V9 50 SSE GCC 55 NW RWL 35 NNW PUC 20 SW U24 30 SSW ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW OWY 60 SW 27U 50 S S06 15 WNW GEG 45 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NRN IA AND SWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. ESEWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW ROTATING NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL WIND/VORT MAX MOVES FROM OH VALLEY ESEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD THRU DELMARVA THEN EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY WHERE IT IS RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THRU NRN IA. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NWRN ND MOVING NEWD WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE A SECONDARY LOW LOCATED AT TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT THEN TRAILS SSWWD THRU CENTRAL KS INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AVAILABLE TO FUEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD INTO SRN MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP TO S OF FRONT WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF NWD MOVING WARM FRONT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS HELICITIES OF 150-200 M2/S2 DEVELOP. BY MID AFTERNOON THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH TO ALLOW RAPID INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW EWD VICINITY OF WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE AREA OF MOST LIKELY THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES E/ENEWD VICINITY AND N OF WARM FRONT. ...OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...REF 1188... 30-35 KT OF MID LEVEL VLYS EXTENDING FROM LOWER OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES COUPLED WITH THE MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND WEAK CIN...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES/BOWS BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN THE LOW LCL,S FOR A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES. ...NRN PLAINS... AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS ND AND SERN SD AHEAD OF SURFACE/UPPER LOW. WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... THE THREAT OF STORMS BREAKING THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON TIL EARLY EVENING ACROSS KS/WRN OK AND NWRN TX. THREAT WILL DIMINISH SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS E OF DRY LINE. SUPERCELLS AS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:05:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:05:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406112005.i5BK52216177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112002 SWODY1 SPC AC 112000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LSE 25 SSE LNR 35 NW MLI 40 N OTM 35 S FOD 20 ENE OTG 35 NNE RWF 25 ESE STC 25 W EAU 25 ESE LSE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE EWN 25 ESE DAN 30 SW PSK 25 SSE JKL 20 WNW SDF STL 45 NNW SGF 25 S TUL 10 W ABI 35 ENE BGS 15 SSW CDS 30 NW END 35 N MHK 10 WNW SUX 10 SSW BIS 50 N MOT 55 WNW RRT 15 SW CWA MKE 15 SSW CGX 10 W LAF 35 W MIE 20 S CMH 20 SSW HLG 20 SW MRB 10 WNW DCA 15 SSE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 35 SE AZO 20 WNW CAK 30 WNW DOV 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 W CSM 10 NNW HUT 15 ENE GRI 50 NE BUB 40 W 9V9 50 SSE GCC 55 NW RWL 35 NNW PUC 20 SW U24 30 SSW ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW OWY 60 SW 27U 50 S S06 15 WNW GEG 45 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN MN INTO NERN IA AND SWRN WI.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUND THE MDT RISK FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF VA/NC.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN ALBERTA WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THROUGH WRN ND AND CENTRAL NE...THEN WWD OVER N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL KS TO ANOTHER LOW OVER E CENTRAL CO. ALSO...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND ESEWD ACROSS NERN IA AND NERN IL...THROUGH A LOW OVER E CENTRAL OH...SEWD THROUGH ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL VA SEWD THROUGH THE NC OUTER BANKS. ALSO...A SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS NWRN OK THEN SWD ALONG THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E CENTRAL MT SEWD OVER SERN SD MOVING NEWD AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO SWRN MN. STRONG FORCING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL BE MAKING A STRONG PUSH EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LATEST MESOSCALE DATA SHOWS THAT MLCAPE VALUES HERE ARE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE WELL...AND WOULD FIGURE THAT 0-1KM HELICITY AND STREAM WISE VORTICITY WOULD BE ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FRONT. THUS...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE DRYLINE. SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS HIGH WITH VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG...BUT ALSO HAS THE PRESENCE OF LOW/MID LEVEL CAPPING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MOSTLY ACROSS ERN NE...NERN KS INTO IA COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER OHIO VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SRN DELMARVA REGION... CURRENT LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ESEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN OH INTO NERN NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...AND NOTICED A REAR INFLOW JET OF 48 KT OVER SWRN OH ACCORDING TO KILN DOPPLER RADAR. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND/JUST ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THUS...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT THAT A BOW ECHO COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS WV/VA INTO NC THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:27:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:27:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406120127.i5C1RM223776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120125 SWODY1 SPC AC 120123 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE EWN 10 WNW FAY SOP 35 N SOP 40 NNE RWI 20 NE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W RRT 25 N AXN 20 NW AXN 40 SSW FAR 75 NW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE UIN 35 E CNU 35 W BWD 40 WNW SJT 10 W BGS 30 SSE SLN 20 SE FOD 20 S EAU 40 WSW CWA 30 ENE CGX 30 ESE MIE 45 NW LUK 30 ESE BMG 25 NNW DEC 10 ENE UIN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX AZO 10 SSW UNI 10 ENE SHD 10 NE WAL ...CONT... 80 S MRF 35 WNW CDS 35 NNW MHK 30 N OMA 15 E BKX 35 W ABR 40 W BIS 50 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ND INTO NW MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NC... ...MID THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MCS FROM MN SWWD THROUGH IA AND NW MO. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING S OF AN E-W STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IND NWWD THROUGH NRN IL AND NERN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SQUALL LINE. MOIST UNSTABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IA AND INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE THAT INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF OK INTO KS. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOWED A WEAK CAP OVER NERN KS AND LINE OVER NW MO MAY BACKBUILD INTO NERN KS. HOWEVER...OK CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH STRONGER CAP. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING. ...NC... THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH NC THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN NC REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. ...ERN ND AND NWRN MN... THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF VORT MAX MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN ND INTO NW MN. ..DIAL.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 13:41:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 08:41:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406121341.i5CDf5213222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121233 SWODY1 SPC AC 121231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLU 10 ESE OMA LWD 40 SW IRK 10 E SZL JLN TUL PNC 10 SE ICT 10 SSE RSL HLC EAR OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 E MHE 30 NW MKT 35 WSW DLH RHI MKE 10 SE SBN 30 NE DAY CMH UNI 35 SW HTS 45 SW SDF 10 SSW OWB CGI HRO FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 SW JAX 55 N AYS 30 E ATL 45 ESE AND 20 S CAE 10 SSW CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 40 NNW BGS 25 S GAG 40 W P28 45 ESE LIC 45 S 4FC 30 WSW GJT 45 WSW PUC 20 SSW SLC 35 ESE LND 45 ENE COD 45 W GTF 85 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 NE HVR 30 W ISN MOT 80 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 WNW ERI 25 ESE EKN 30 S ROA 25 SW GSO 30 S SOP 35 SW ILM ...CONT... 20 SSW HUM 15 NE LFT 30 E POE 40 SSW SHV 40 SW TYR 20 WSW ACT 45 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 20 SE SEA 35 SSE OLM AST. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MID/UPR MS VLY...AND LWR OH VLY .... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... DOWNSTREAM OF VERY STRONG ZONAL UPPER JET NOSING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME HAS ALREADY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A BIT FARTHER UPSTREAM...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FARTHER SOUTH...JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS EVIDENT NEAR THE ARIZONA/SONORA BORDER. AS THESE FEATURES PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 70F OVER BROAD AREA...SOUTH/WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND EAST OF INITIAL WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... WHILE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES... CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD--IN WAKE OF VIGOROUS LEAD SHORT WAVE...AND AHEAD OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVES--WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND VERY LARGE CAPE...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG. MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL BE ONGOING BY THIS TIME...AND THIS APPEARS STRONGLY TIED TO WEAKER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MIGRATING OUT OF WYOMING/COLORADO. ETA MODEL FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING FAIRLY RAPID EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/ NEBRASKA BORDER BY THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ABOVE NEAR SURFACE/CAPPING INVERSION LAYER...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EVOLVES...MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SUPPORT PROPAGATION INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/ NORTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND MORE RAPID DISSIPATION OF CURRENT NORTHERN/ CENTRAL MISSOURI COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW COLD POOL. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...PROGRESSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...POSSIBLY INDIANA BEFORE WEAKENING/DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...ALONG REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES IN GENERAL WILL ONLY BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ANOTHER SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE TODAY. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK... PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTIVE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA...FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION EVOLVES AS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER IN WAKE OF INITIAL WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WITH SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BENEATH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. ...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR IN WEAK FLOW/WEAK SHEAR REGIME BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 15:52:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 10:52:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406121552.i5CFqS211449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121548 SWODY1 SPC AC 121546 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OLU 10 ESE OMA 20 NW LWD 40 SW IRK 20 ENE SZL 10 N JLN 40 ENE ABI 30 NNW ABI 75 NW ABI P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE 30 NW MKT 35 WSW DLH RHI MKE 10 SE SBN 30 NE DAY 15 S CMH UNI 30 SE 5I3 40 NNE TYS 40 SE BWG 30 SW CGI HRO FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30 SW JAX 35 NNW AYS 15 SW AHN 10 WSW AND 30 N CAE 15 SW CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN 20 NNE DVL RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW 25 NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS 30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST THRU OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GA AND SC... ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA THRU WRN MN INTO ERN NEB THEN WWD INTO CENTRAL CO. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WHERE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS DRY LINE. DRY LINE THEN TRAILS SSWWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ESEWD FROM NRN IA ACROSS OH VALLEY AND THEN SEWD AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG SC/NC BORDER. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS PLAINS AND COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG FLUX OF GULF MOISTURE HAVE PUT IN PLACE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS TO E OF DRY LINE AND SE OF COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS AREA ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BAND ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO SERN STATES. ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS... EXAMINING 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL RUNS THE AIR MASS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS E AND SE OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS. HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS HIGHEST IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DOWN DRYLINE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN NM ATTM...SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED RELATIVELY HIGH BASES. ...MID WEST INCLUDING OH VALLEY... THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONGOING ACTIVITY AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE STORMS CAN FOCUS EITHER ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR VICINITY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. ...CAROLINAS... BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO SC WILL BE NRN LIMIT OF ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. S OF FRONT SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND COLD FRONTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 19:51:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 14:51:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406121951.i5CJp1231783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121948 SWODY1 SPC AC 121945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE OLU 40 NE OMA 35 SW DSM 40 SW IRK 10 ESE SZL 35 E TUL 40 ENE ABI 65 NNW ABI 25 NW LTS P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE 30 NW MKT 30 W EAU 15 SSE CWA MKE 10 SE SBN 30 N DAY 10 NNW HTS 20 WNW HKY 15 SSW AND 35 WNW RMG 30 WNW MSL 20 NW MEM 45 N LIT FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS 30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA ...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN 20 NNE DVL RRT ...CONT... 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW 25 NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM ...CONT... 25 S CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NE AND SWRN IA SWD THRU CENTRAL/ERN KS...NWRN MO...NRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO NWRN TX.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN ND SWD THROUGH CO. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWD/SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 13/06Z. SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL KS BETWEEN HLC AND RSL...WITH A MESOLOW EVIDENT AROUND LNK ASSOCIATED WITH 4.9 MB/3 HOURS PRESSURE FALL. ALSO...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS E-W FROM CENTRAL AND WRN KY WSWWD ACROSS NRN AR. ...KS/NE INTO OK/TX AND PARTS OF MO... MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. PRESSURE FALLS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY CNK-OMA-OFK-GRI-CNK AND SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKING ACROSS ERN KS DEVELOPING INFLOW TOWARDS THE LOW NW OF RSL. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING RAISING SBCAPE TO BETWEEN 4500-5500 J/KG /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG/. 18Z RAOB DATA SHOWS CAPE JUST UNDER 4500 J/KG AT TOP WITH A MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 9C/KM. WHILE SHEAR HAS YET TO RESPOND TO APPROACHING TROUGH...RUC MODEL FORECASTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT BY 13/00Z FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE SW-NE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE LARGE CAPE/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. DRYLINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BETWEEN HLC/RSL THROUGH GAG AND LBB INTO MAF. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES UVVS BY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...OH/TN VALLEY INTO SC... ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG/JUST S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIR MASS IS VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S GIVING MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ADJUSTED SLGT RISK SWD TO THE TN SRN BORDER WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS MADE IT SWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NWRN SC. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 01:29:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 20:29:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406130129.i5D1TB212065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130126 SWODY1 SPC AC 130124 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SLN 25 SSW CNK 25 SSW FNB 15 SSE STJ 15 ESE MKC 30 ESE CNU 30 SW TUL 35 NNE OKC 15 NNW END 40 ESE P28 HUT 25 WSW SLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 40 SE LBB 35 SW P28 30 SSE RSL 45 ENE HLC 25 S HSI 20 SSE LNK 40 SSW FOD 25 NNE MKT 55 NNE EAU 30 ENE AUW 30 W MKE 25 WSW BEH 40 W FWA 20 N IND 50 SSE MTO 35 SSE MVN 45 S PAH 30 SW MKL 50 N GLH 40 WNW HOT 20 NNW DAL 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 ENE LBB 35 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 50 SW COS 25 E MTJ 50 SW CAG 30 SW RWL 45 SSE DGW 45 NNW PHP 45 WNW JMS 45 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 25 NW HLG 30 W EKN 15 W DAN 10 SW SOP 15 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S CRP LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN OK THROUGH ERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN IA SWWD THROUGH NERN KS TO A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL KS. DRYLINE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW THROUGH W CNTRL KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND INTO W TX. ANOTHER LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN AR NWWD THROUGH NWRN MO WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM W TX THROUGH OK AND ERN KS. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE WITH MCS DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NERN KS/NW MO AND WITH CLUSTER OVER W TX JUST NW OF ABILENE. IN BETWEEN...ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE REMAINDER OF DRYLINE...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OVER SERN KS. THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS NERN KS/NW MO HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD SUPPORTED BY MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW ALONG INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. BEST TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE WITH ISOLATED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN KS AND ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS IN THIS AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK. THE EVENING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN DID SHOW PRESENCE OF A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 2 KM...AND LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER CAP. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO W TX. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS OK...OR NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN NW TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM ERN KS...WRN MO WITH SOME BACKBUILDING LIKELY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN MO IS CONDITIONAL UPON RECOVERY OF THE AIR THAT HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT SOME EWD RECOVERY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...SC AND ERN GA... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SW OF BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS SC INTO PARTS OF GA. COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 06:24:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 01:24:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406130623.i5D6Nt215128@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130621 SWODY1 SPC AC 130619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW SLN 35 ENE OTM 25 NNE UIN 40 E COU 15 W PNC 20 ENE P28 15 SW SLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ERI PIT 15 SW UNI 25 NE EVV 30 S SGF 10 SW OKC 15 NE GAG 35 SW RSL 30 N CNK 55 WSW FOD 35 N RST 15 SSW IWD 125 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE MRF 30 NE HLC BUB 30 NNE ANW 40 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 20 WNW WRL 20 ENE BTM 40 S FCA 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 30 ENE EFK 15 WNW ILG 15 WSW RIC 20 S OAJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN KS THROUGH NRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL COMPLICATE SURFACE PATTERN AND ENHANCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FORECAST. A RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE IA THROUGH ERN MO AND SWWD INTO SRN KS. THE WRN PART OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STILL MOVING SWD...BUT MAY STALL ACROSS SRN KS OR NRN OK THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD WWD SUPPORTED BY SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS. RECOVERY NWD INTO KS AND MO MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HOW MUCH NWD RECOVERY OCCURS WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH ONGOING CONVECTION PROGRESSES. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FARTHER NORTH INTO KS/MO AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO...WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH SRN KS...MO AND PARTS OF OK DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES STORMS RELATIVE INFLOW. ...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV CURRENTLY OVER IA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF IND...OH AND MI. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SHOULD INTENSIFY AS DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 12:35:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 07:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406131235.i5DCZJ217917@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131232 SWODY1 SPC AC 131231 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SLN FNB 30 SSE BRL 35 WSW SPI 40 ENE COU COU SZL 25 N JLN 20 SW JLN BVO PNC P28 25 WNW SLN. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E DTW 20 SSW JXN BEH 15 NNW MKG HTL 10 NE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 10 ENE BFD 10 NE ZZV BMG UNO ARG JBR MEM GLH ELD PRX OKC GAG RSL LNK 40 WSW LNR CWA 35 W IMT 15 NNE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE MRF 30 NE HLC BUB 30 NNE ANW 40 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 20 WNW WRL 20 ENE BTM 40 S FCA 45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 30 ENE EFK 15 WNW ILG 15 WSW RIC 20 S OAJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARKS AND CENTRAL PLAINS.... LONG BELT OF STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES. JET CONTINUES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AROUND BROAD UPPER RIDGE INTO REAR OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS SUGGEST EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL GRADUALLY NOSE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHERN PORTION OF PLAINS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/QUEBEC. SOUTHERN PORTION WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS CUT-OFF OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES... EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. DEEP LAYER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TROPICAL CIRCULATION APPROACHING CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP/LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LIKELY INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 18Z. SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. BELT OF 30 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN BASE OF BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS CONVECTION INITIATES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR QUITE LIKELY...AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE WAVE ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE MODERATE IN STRENGTH...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY NORTH NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS INTO THE SAGINAW AREA DURING THE 13/21Z-14/00Z TIME FRAME. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSIDERABLE SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD CLIMB BACK THROUGH THE 60S AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS PRIOR RUNS...LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. DESPITE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF OVERNIGHT MCS...THIS STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 14/00Z...WHEN EXIT REGION OF 90-110 KT HIGH-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI...CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE PROVIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS ON NOSE OF 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...SHEAR BENEATH WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME QUITE INTENSE/LONG-LIVED. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...IS LIKELY PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS ACTIVITY SPREADS SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD...SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES OVERNIGHT. ...EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DEW POINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S... CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE HEATING. GIVEN RATHER WEAK CAPPING...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH CIRCULATION APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND DOWNBURSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 15:48:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 10:48:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406131548.i5DFmS213209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131545 SWODY1 SPC AC 131543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 30 S JXN 20 ENE SBN 25 NNE MKG 20 N HTL 15 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 10 ENE BFD 30 ENE PKB 30 NNE CRW 35 SSW CRW 35 ESE TRI 65 S TYS GLH ELD PRX 25 SSW FSI GAG 30 N GRI 25 ENE PHP 25 SW MBG 30 ENE MSP 45 SW ESC 20 W ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW MRF 20 SSE LBB 25 WSW LBL 20 SE HLC BBW 15 SW ANW 15 SSW RAP 30 SE BTM 15 SE PUW 30 N 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB 30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MICHIGAN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL U.S. WEST OF APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/HIGH LEVEL TROUGH THIS AM FROM UPR MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS WILL SPLIT AS STRONG BAND OF WLYS MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS AND UPR MS VALLEY BY 12Z MON. THE NRN PORTION OF TROUGH WILL ROTATE ENEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE SRN PLAINS PORTION IS SHUNTED SWD THRU TX TO BECOME A CUT OFF LOW TX COAST 12Z MON. OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS MOVED FURTHER S THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH BOUNDARY SWD TO RED RIVER AND NRN AR. THE LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE PREVIOUS MDT RISK AREA CENTRAL PLAINS. ...LOWER MI... WILL CONTINUE THE MDT RISK LWR MI AS 12Z ETA RUN STILL BRINGS A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO 30 KT AND THE UPWARD MOTION WITH THE S/WV TROUGH...KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ADDITIONALLY THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OH VALLEY IS MOVING NWD WITH MDT/STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS MLCAPES RISE TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN BY MID-AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL U.S. FROM APPALACHIANS WWD TO PLAINS... REF MCD 1241 WITH UNSTABLE AIR STILL AVAILABLE EWD TO APPALACHIANS AND 30 KT OF SHEAR SWD TO TN VALLEY...AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA FROM MID MS VALLEY EWD TO APPALACHIANS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH MLCAPES LOCALLY TO 3000 J/KG AND DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES. RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS WILL TAKE MUCH OF DAY IN CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MDT SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SRN PLAINS. SEVERE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION...THUS A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT IS THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS FROM NRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ETA INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS SRN MN/IA FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OVERNIGHT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 20:03:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 15:03:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406132003.i5DK37204882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132000 SWODY1 SPC AC 131958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 30 S JXN 20 ENE SBN 25 NNE MKG 20 N HTL 15 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ART 20 ENE CRW 45 NW AND 10 W BHM 10 SE TYR 30 E DAL 30 E DUA ARG 15 WSW STL 40 NNE SZL ICT 15 NE CSM 50 SW SPS 60 ESE LBB 30 NNE PVW 45 NW GCK 30 SW HSI 10 ESE BUB 45 WSW 9V9 45 E MBG 10 SE DLH ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW OKC 25 ENE FSI 10 SE ADM 15 WNW PGO 30 W ARG 55 NW POF 15 E VIH 25 ESE SZL 10 N CNU 30 WNW PNC 35 WNW OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB 30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 50 SW INK 45 N HOB 25 N CAO BBW 15 SW ANW 15 SSW RAP 25 SW S80 35 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL U.S.... ...WRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS MI... THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES...PRIMARILY ACROSS LOWER MI...THOUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA WAS NOW LOCATED OVER NRN LOWER MI...AHEAD OF LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOW SPREADING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT-FEATURE. SECOND FALL CENTER IS OVER CENTRAL IND...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN IND. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WI. WITH AXIS OF NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE INSTABILITY NOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF LOWER MI...ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER LAKE MI/WRN LOWER MI/IND DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SWLY LLJ WILL BE OVERRIDDEN BY 50 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER MI...SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER SYSTEM AND CONCURRENT POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WI AND THE U.P. OF MI THIS EVENING. ...TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS SWWD INTO ARKLATEX... SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVED NEAR A COUPLE OF NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS ACROSS AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. FARTHER SW ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM NERN TX INTO SERN AR/NRN MS...WHERE MLCAPES ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN POINTS FARTHER NORTH...AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK UPPER LOW NOW SHIFTING SEWD INTO NERN TX/AR. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY SUPPORT SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... EFFECTS OF INTENSE MESO-HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...WHERE FURTHER SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW MOVING SEWD INTO NERN TX/AR WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH /IF ANY/ THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. MORE LIKELY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ...A FEW OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER ALONG EDGE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INVOF DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX/NWRN OK/WRN KS. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER...AS CAP AND INSTABILITY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE INTO NRN MO/SRN IA/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER THESE AREAS. ...SD INTO THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING SPREADING EWD OUT OF SD ALONG NOSE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD THE THREATS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TOWARDS THE MID MO/NRN MS RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN APPALACHIANS... STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM SERN GA INTO CENTRAL AL. DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...AND SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. ..EVANS.. 06/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 00:34:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 19:34:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406140034.i5E0Y2217482@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140032 SWODY1 SPC AC 140030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW ART 35 WNW IPT 45 NW AND 20 W TCL 30 NNW GLH 40 NE HRO 35 ENE SZL 30 WNW TOP 30 SW HSI 15 WSW BUB 45 WSW 9V9 45 E MBG 10 SE DLH ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW OKC 25 ENE FSI 10 SE ADM 20 WNW PGO 30 W FYV 20 SSE CNU 15 N PNC 35 WNW OKC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 50 SW INK 45 N HOB 25 N CAO 50 NNW IML 50 ENE AIA 15 SSW RAP 25 SW S80 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 15 SW LEB 30 SW POU 40 E CHO 20 W GSB 20 ENE ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY... STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN LOWER MI SWD INTO ERN IND/OH. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WI/UP OF MI IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO WRN PARTS OF NY/PA TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG AXIS OF MID-LEVEL WINDS /I.E. 45-55KTS AT 500MB/ COUPLED WITH INCREASING COLD POOL PRODUCTION WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...CURRENT REGIONAL VWPS AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INDICATE VEERING WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...YIELDING 100-200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST BOTH AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINES AND/OR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINES THEMSELVES. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT OVERNIGHT...FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXPANDING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NY/PA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...TN VALLEY... AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINE HAS DEVELOPED OVER MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOCAL VWPS INDICATE WEAKER WIND PROFILES THAN POINTS TO THE N...A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL AND STABILIZE. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS PER RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS. THOUGH AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER N-CNTRL/CNTRL SD. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...NOCTURNAL BRANCH OF LLJ IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM N-CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL IA. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG LLJ AXIS COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY PROMOTE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS FROM ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN SWD INTO FAR ERN NEB AND IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 05:47:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 00:47:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406140546.i5E5km217475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140544 SWODY1 SPC AC 140542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 10 WSW RIC 30 SSE OWB 30 E BVO 30 SSW EHA 35 NNW LHX 10 ESE FCL 25 W BFF 20 SSE PIR 20 S EAU 20 ENE PLN ...CONT... 10 WNW EFK 20 WSW ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 30 WSW GSB 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 20 ENE RRT 30 N HIB 40 WNW IWD 30 SE MQT 20 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 100 SSE MRF 40 NNW PVW 35 SW RTN 50 SSW ALS 35 WNW U17 40 NNE DRA 15 N NID 30 ENE FAT 30 SSE TVL 40 ESE NFL 10 ESE SLC 30 SW RKS RWL 35 SSW DGW 60 NE DGW 45 SE 81V 50 SSE GDV 15 NE GTF 35 SSW FCA 50 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THIS AXIS OF STRONGER WINDS AND BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND INTO CNTRL KS. ...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... QUASI-LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS FROM WRN NY/PA SWWD INTO ERN OH WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF PA/NY. SLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OFF COOLER SHELF WATERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...FORCING FOR ASCENT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC COUPLED WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES ACROSS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING MCS. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING...HOWEVER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL BE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... A SMALL MCS OR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER IA/MN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OBSERVED FROM CNTRL IA ENEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI MAY FOCUS THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND/OR COMMA HEAD STRUCTURES. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD OVER CNTRL KS TODAY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HERE... STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND 30-35KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED PARCELS WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME FROM CNTRL/NRN NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...CNTRL GULF COAST... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REACHING SRN LA LATER THIS MORNING. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 12:59:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 07:59:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406141259.i5ECx2227951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141256 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW EFK 20 WSW ISP ...CONT... 30 ESE SBY 15 S CHO 10 ESE EKN 15 SE JKL 25 WSW JLN 45 WNW END 30 NNW LHX 35 SW DEN 15 N CYS 10 SSW AIA 35 SE LBF 30 W BIE 20 SE EAU 25 NE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RRT 30 N HIB 40 WNW IWD 30 SE MQT 20 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE MRF 20 NE AMA 25 ENE DHT 30 SSW CAO 35 NNW LVS 10 WSW 4BL 30 NNW SGU 40 ESE NID 30 ENE FAT 30 N FAT 30 E SAC 45 WNW RNO 10 WSW RNO 50 NNE BIH 50 NNE U24 35 E VEL 45 SSE RWL 35 N LAR 60 NE DGW 45 SE 81V 30 SSE 4BQ 50 ESE BIL 20 E GTF 50 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ORF 10 S GSB CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST / RELATIVELY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PERIOD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH. MOST OBVIOUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS BROAD WLY FLOW REGIME IS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ATTM -- AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF STRONG / SEVERE STORM CLUSTER NOW OVER SRN IA / NRN MO / NWRN IL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM WRN KS NEWD INTO UPPER MI...WHILE WEAKER / SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS INDICATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WITH TIME...CENTRAL U.S. BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ONGOING STORM CLUSTER MOVING INTO WRN IL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND INTENSIFY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STRONGEST WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE OH VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI INTO THE NRN HALF OF OH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER 30 TO 50 KT WLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL AS IA / IL STORM CLUSTER MOVES EWD AND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS / SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH EWD CONTINUATION OF IA / IL STORM CLUSTER -- WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN PA / WRN NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THREAT MAY PERSIST AS FAR EWD AS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MO / KS... STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO ERN KS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO / IA -- AND EVENTUALLY THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT -- MOVES SWD. AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF STORMS / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMMENCES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS -- THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS WRN KS / ERN CO TODAY...WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN CO -- AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SEWD INTO WRN KS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND INSTABILITY LIMITED...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-BASED...AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO HAIL. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE AFTER DARK GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE LA COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD / NWWD INTO SRN LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST / LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS OVER THIS REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION SUGGEST LITTLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. NONETHELESS...LOW LCLS AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR E OF SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT A VERY LOW-END THREAT FOR A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO WITHIN ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:00:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:00:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406142000.i5EK0G222142@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141957 SWODY1 SPC AC 141955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MSS UCA 10 NW BGM 40 NNE PSB 25 NNW PIT 20 SW MFD 25 SSW FDY 30 E FWA 25 SW FNT 65 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BML BAF 20 ENE ABE 40 SSW AOO 20 N LEX 25 WSW JLN 45 WNW END LAA 35 WNW AKO 10 S AIA 35 W MHN 15 ENE EAR 20 WNW FNB 10 WNW PIA 15 WSW CGX 35 W MKG 65 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS LAR 35 N BFF 25 ENE RAP 40 N REJ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY 20 NE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 40 SW TVL 25 WNW TVL 35 E TVL 35 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 45 NW NID 40 NE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MMO 25 NNW MKE 35 NE LSE 40 NNW MKT 25 E BKX 15 ESE YKN 10 NNE OMA 20 N BRL 30 NNW MMO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI/NRN OH INTO WRN NY/NWRN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... ...LOWER MI/OH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 45-50 KT INTO SWRN ONTARIO AND ACROSS NRN OH THROUGH 23Z. STRONG INSTABILITY DUE TO AMPLE HEATING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SERN LOWER MI/NRN OH INTO NWRN PA/WRN NY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THOUGH SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WINDS /I.E. > 65KT/ AS OF 20Z... WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WARRANTS MAINTENENCE OF MDT RISK ATTM. AS HEATING ABATES AFTER 02Z...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. HOWEVER... STRONG COLD POOL AND SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL INTO CENTRAL/NERN PA AND TOWARDS WRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. NEARER THE OH RIVER VALLEY...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY INCREASE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING. AIR MASS IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR EVIDENT ON ILN/S 18Z SOUNDING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SRN IL WWD INTO KS... WHERE MLCAPES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER SERN KS/WRN MO. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES DRAPED IN A E-W FASHION ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN MODEST...SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE MID EVENING GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO LARGE SCALE WNWLY FLOW...STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO SRN IL SHOULD ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB/FAR NERN CO WITH HIGH BASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AFTER DARK ALONG 40+ KT SLY LLJ AXIS. MCS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NRN KS/NEB. ...NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR VORT CENTER MOVING INTO WRN ND. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1269./ AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK...ETA AND GFS SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION/MCS MAY FORM INTO ERN SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED... MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SERN INTO COASTAL BEND REGION OF TX... RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS/MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..EVANS.. 06/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:42:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:42:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150042.i5F0gD222919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 10 E LEX 15 NNE TUL 10 NNW GAG 30 SW LHX COS 35 ENE CYS 35 W MHN 20 NNE EAR 45 SE OMA 25 NW PIA 30 ESE SBN 30 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 20 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY 20 NE CRE ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS 40 NNW LAR 40 ESE DGW 45 SSE 81V 40 ENE 4BQ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 15 S TVL 20 W NFL 30 NE ELY 50 NW MLF 20 E DRA 25 NNW NID 40 NE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MLI 20 SSW MSN 20 ENE LSE 30 ENE MKT 25 NNE OTG 35 NNE SUX 60 ENE OMA 30 SW CID 30 N MLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN STATES AND DELMARVA REGION... ...NERN STATES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER WRN PARTS OF NY/PA MOVING EWD AT 40-50KTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 00Z BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SW OF SYR AND NW OF UCA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN PA...WV...MD INTO DE AND SRN NJ. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON SRN PERIPHERY OS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING 30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS ENEWD INTO NERN MO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY S OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE E...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DENVER SOUNDING. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF ELY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BENEATH 500MB WINDS OF 30-40KTS IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...DAKOTAS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT ATTM...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL ND. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING...AND FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND /OR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:42:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:42:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150042.i5F0gx223282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150039 SWODY1 SPC AC 150037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 10 E LEX 15 NNE TUL 10 NNW GAG 30 SW LHX COS 35 ENE CYS 35 W MHN 20 NNE EAR 45 SE OMA 25 NW PIA 30 ESE SBN 30 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE EFK 20 SE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ORF 20 ESE FAY 20 NE CRE ...CONT... 40 ESE RRT 40 E BJI 20 WSW DLH 70 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 30 E MRF 15 WNW FST 30 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT 35 S JCT 40 WNW AUS 25 SSW DAL 35 N DUA 30 W OKC 45 SSW GAG 15 NE TCC 15 ENE SAF 35 NE BCE 40 SSE SLC 40 SW RKS 40 NNW LAR 40 ESE DGW 45 SSE 81V 40 ENE 4BQ 40 ENE 3HT 50 NE GEG 40 NW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MER 15 S TVL 20 W NFL 30 NE ELY 50 NW MLF 20 E DRA 25 NNW NID 40 NE MER. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MLI 20 SSW MSN 20 ENE LSE 30 ENE MKT 25 NNE OTG 35 NNE SUX 60 ENE OMA 30 SW CID 30 N MLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN STATES AND DELMARVA REGION... ...NERN STATES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER WRN PARTS OF NY/PA MOVING EWD AT 40-50KTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAVE ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 00Z BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SW OF SYR AND NW OF UCA. THESE STORMS WILL POSE MAINLY AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN PA...WV...MD INTO DE AND SRN NJ. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON SRN PERIPHERY OS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOCAL VWPS INDICATING 30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM CNTRL KS ENEWD INTO NERN MO. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY S OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN POINTS TO THE E...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z DENVER SOUNDING. MOREOVER...PRESENCE OF ELY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS BENEATH 500MB WINDS OF 30-40KTS IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...DAKOTAS... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN MT ATTM...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE OVER CNTRL ND. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING...AND FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND /OR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..MEAD.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 06:07:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 01:07:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150607.i5F67X223719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150605 SWODY1 SPC AC 150603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ANJ 15 SW BLV 45 SSE DDC 10 WNW LBL 30 NNE TAD 25 NE DEN 25 NE MHN ATY 20 NNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 45 N SHD 25 NW PKB CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG SAF GCN LAS 25 SSW BFL 25 SSW MER 10 SW TVL 10 WSW WMC ENV 40 SE EVW 25 ESE RWL 30 N DGW 25 NNW PHP 35 E Y22 40 N DIK 35 WSW GDV 35 SE 3TH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 20 E SBN CLE 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MT/ WILL RAPIDLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER WRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...AND WHAT POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON THE INFLOW AIRMASS AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB/IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA. EVOLVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN NEB. SYSTEM HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COMPLEX WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL MO...LIKELY OVERTURNING UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. THIS COMPLEX MAY WELL CONTINUE EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONT INTO NRN/CNTRL MO LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY INITIALLY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MT. INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OR DEVELOPING ON IT/S RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND POINTS TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WW INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AIRMASS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON /LARGELY AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 15/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD OF SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 07:25:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:25:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406150725.i5F7P2225764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150723 SWODY1 SPC AC 150720 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ANJ 15 SW BLV 45 SSE DDC 10 WNW LBL 30 NNE TAD 25 NE DEN 25 NE MHN ATY 20 NNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 45 N SHD 25 NW PKB CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG SAF GCN LAS 25 SSW BFL 25 SSW MER 10 SW TVL 10 WSW WMC ENV 40 SE EVW 25 ESE RWL 30 N DGW 25 NNW PHP 35 E Y22 40 N DIK 35 WSW GDV 35 SE 3TH 60 ENE 63S ...CONT... 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 20 E SBN CLE 15 NE UCA 20 NE MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BELT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL MT/ WILL RAPIDLY EJECT EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY...PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER WRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...AND WHAT POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACTS THIS MAY HAVE ON THE INFLOW AIRMASS AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB/IA LATER TODAY. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA. EVOLVING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER WRN KS/SWRN NEB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN NEB. SYSTEM HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS KS/OK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COMPLEX WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG STATIONARY E-W BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL MO...LIKELY OVERTURNING UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS. THIS COMPLEX MAY WELL CONTINUE EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONT INTO NRN/CNTRL MO LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY INITIALLY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MT. INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. WHEN COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING EXPECT POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OR DEVELOPING ON IT/S RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WHICH MAY RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL..DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND POINTS TO THE S...EXPECT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WW INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS PA/NJ MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AIRMASS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON /LARGELY AS A RESULT OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NE...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND 15/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. ASCENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD OF SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 13:01:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 08:01:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406151300.i5FD0r208597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151258 SWODY1 SPC AC 151256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE BRD 25 E MSP 20 NNE MCW 40 ESE FOD 20 SW LWD 10 NNE TOP 10 SSW P28 10 WNW LBL 45 WNW TAD 25 W DEN 40 NNW CYS 40 SE PHP 55 SW ABR 30 E FAR 50 ESE BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 20 N CHO 20 WNW UNI CAK 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE PLN 20 WNW GRR 25 SSW AZO CLE 10 SSW UCA 30 ENE EFK ...CONT... 45 SSE DRT 55 ENE JCT 25 SSW ADM 30 NW MLC 20 SW TUL 40 SW GAG 10 WSW SAF GCN LAS 25 ENE EDW 45 NNE MER 10 SW TVL 50 W TPH 45 N ELY 25 E SLC 25 SE VEL 25 N CAG 30 NNE RWL 50 ESE WRL 30 SE 81V 45 ESE REJ 15 E DIK 25 W ISN 30 SW GTF 20 SSW S06 25 N 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OH EWD INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BELT OF WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD..WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE WITH TIME FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC MOVES EWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SECOND TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM WRN CANADA / THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH WRN SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS QUEBEC / SRN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHILE FURTHER SWWD THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH WRN FRINGE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...ACTUAL RETURNING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION WILL BE CONVECTIVELY-CONTAMINATED AS A RESULT OF ONGOING KS / NRN MO CONVECTION. QUALITY OF THIS RETURNING AIRMASS WILL MODULATE THE POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS KS...THOUGH LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF KS / ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NRN MO. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS NEAR LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...RETURNING MUCH OF AIRMASS RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED. THEREFORE...EXPECT ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN SD AND MN. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXPECT STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY MOVE EWD AHEAD OF FRONT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER SWWD WRN NEB / ERN CO / WRN KS...PERSISTENT SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD ADVECT MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS / UNSTABLE AIRMASS NWWD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS / WRN AND CENTRAL NEB. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN CO / WRN KS...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO ALLOW MULTICELL OR WEAK SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD MORE CLEARLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS NEB / WRN KS AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO EXPAND NWWD INTO SERN WY WHERE MORE ENELY LOW-LEVEL JET AND THUS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD EVOLVE. EXPECT ONE OR MORE MCSS TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ...SERN OH EWD ALONG THE MASON / DIXON LINE INTO THE DELMARVA... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SETTLED SWD AND BECOME INDISTINCT...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED THIS AFTERNOON BY SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH UPPER 60S / LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION S OF FRONT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...LARGE-SCALE / MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LACKING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED UPPER JET AXIS -- BOTH NEGATIVES IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS / A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH MODERATE / ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE DOES EXIST. EXPECT THOUGH THAT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ...LA / ERN TX... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION / INVOF UPPER LOW OVER THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ..GOSS.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 16:14:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 11:14:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406151614.i5FGET213729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151610 SWODY1 SPC AC 151608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 10 WSW SHD 30 NW HTS 20 ENE MFD 30 E PSB 30 SSE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE BRD 25 E MSP 20 NNE MCW 40 ESE FOD 20 SW LWD 10 NNE TOP 10 SSW P28 10 WNW LBL 45 WNW TAD 25 W DEN 40 NNW CYS 40 SE PHP 55 SW ABR 30 E FAR 50 ESE BRD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MOB 20 NE LUL 35 ENE GWO 20 WNW CBM 50 S MSL 15 SW GAD 25 N AUO 25 E MAI 15 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS ...CONT... 125 NNW ANJ 20 N MBL 20 W AZO 20 S DTW ...CONT... 25 SSE LBB 75 NE P07 30 SSW SJT 45 E SJT 20 ESE ABI 45 SW SPS 20 NE CSM 35 SE GAG 50 SW GAG 30 ESE AMA 25 SSE LBB ...CONT... 70 S MRF 45 W FST 45 NNE ROW 50 SE LVS 25 ESE LVS 35 N SAF 40 W FMN GCN 60 N IGM 20 S LAS 35 ENE DAG 30 SE BFL 60 ESE FAT 35 SW BIH 50 WNW BIH 35 SSE TVL 45 ESE TVL 75 S NFL 55 SW U31 10 NNW U31 40 E EKO 25 S EVW 45 NNW CAG 40 S GCC 30 NNW Y22 40 NW JMS 35 E DVL 50 NNW DVL 30 N P24 65 NW 27U 15 ENE LWS GEG 40 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AL AND ERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA AND PA... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG WLYS CONFINED TO THE NRN U.S. WITH ONE VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER MT SHEARS EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS. THE CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW VICINITY UPR TX COAST PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE THE OVERNIGHT MCS CENTRAL PLAINS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED LOW LEVELS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SPREADING SWD INTO NRN AR WWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT DAKOTAS SWWD INTO WY WILL PUSH E/SE AND PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ROTATING NWD THRU CENTRAL MS ON E SIDE OF UPPER LOW TX WITH 30-35 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR OVER ERN MS AND AL. IN THE NERN U.S. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND. ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH 60F DEWPOINTS INTO ERN CO COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS FURTHER N ACROSS NRN NEB/ERN SD WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20KT MUCH OF CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER N THERE WILL BE 30-40KT OF SHEAR ACROSS SD INTO MN ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ...GULF COASTAL STATES... WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE SLY FLOW E OF MS CYCLONIC CENTER...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN AL. ...NERN U.S... DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS IN SLIGHT RISK AREA TO S OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG..PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. RISK WILL BE FROM DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THREAT EXPECTED TO END SOON AFTER DARK. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 19:51:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 14:51:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406151951.i5FJpN225306@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151947 SWODY1 SPC AC 151945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SBY 10 WSW SHD 25 SSE BMG 40 W FWA 25 NE MFD 30 W ELM 40 NNW MSV BDL 15 NNW BID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE STC 25 E MSP MCW 50 WSW DSM 20 NW FNB 30 WNW SLN 15 SW GAG 25 SW AMA 35 NW TCC 45 WNW TAD 10 WNW DEN 25 SW BFF 30 WSW VTN 55 SW ABR 45 SSE FAR 30 NNE STC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW MOB 40 E LUL 25 SSE CBM 25 SSW MSL 15 NE HSV 20 WNW RMG 10 WSW CSG 15 ENE MAI 15 NE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10 NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW IGM 35 ENE DAG 30 SE BFL 45 ESE FAT 60 SE TVL NFL 15 S BAM 40 E EKO 20 SW RWL 30 ENE CPR 10 SSE 81V 45 N PHP 60 ESE BIS 65 NNE DVL ...CONT... 60 NNW ISN 50 WNW 3HT 40 E S80 45 WSW S06 35 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC 40 S MTW 25 NW BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LBB 55 SSE MAF 25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD 20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 25 NE CSM 35 WNW CDS 10 ESE LBB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM SWRN MN TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER AL... ...PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS OF CO...AHEAD OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS RESPONDED TO THIS FEATURE WITH AN ESELY COMPONENT. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INTO ERN CO WHERE LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED. IT APPEARS A CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH TIME...STORM MERGERS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS STRUCTURES AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD THE LLJ WHICH WILL FOCUS OVER WRN KS AFTER DARK. FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER NCNTRL NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO SD WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION. SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE EARLY STORM MODE...ESPECIALLY OVER SD BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO A MORE LINEAR FASHION ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE STORM CYCLE. ...OH VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... A NARROW ZONE OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED QUALITY AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IND...EWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN PA. THIS ZONE IS BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ALONG NRN EDGE OF MORE TROPICAL INFLUENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING MCS OVER IL HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL IND WHERE IT CURRENTLY IMPINGES ON E-W ZONE OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BEFORE OVERTURNING REDUCES INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES... NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIFTING/DEVELOPING NNEWD ACROSS AL/GA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SERN TX. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS MAY ROTATE SUFFICIENTLY FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...CENTRAL TX... SWWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION IS APPROACHING CENTRAL TX ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH. WITH NLY COMPONENT ALOFT...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING. ..DARROW.. 06/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 00:40:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 19:40:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406160039.i5G0dm228999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160036 SWODY1 SPC AC 160034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DLH 20 SE MSP 20 S MCW 20 NNE SLN 40 SW GAG 25 SSE LBB 50 NNW HOB 20 SW LHX 25 E DEN SNY 10 SW ANW 30 N AXN 40 NNE BRD 55 SSW DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 20 SSW UCA 15 NNW PSF 15 NNE BOS ...CONT... 85 NE MQT 40 SW ESC 40 S MTW 25 NW BEH 10 ESE DTW ...CONT... 50 NNE BGS 55 SSE MAF 25 WNW JCT 35 W BWD 20 SW SPS 20 NNE FSI 15 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 50 NNE BGS ...CONT... 80 SW GDP 20 E 4CR 10 NNW SAF 35 NW 4SL 60 WSW FMN 60 WNW GCN 45 WNW IGM 35 S DAG 35 WSW NID 20 NNE FAT 25 S TVL NFL 40 SSE BAM 35 SW ENV 40 N CAG 30 SSW CDR 50 NNW ABR 90 NNE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ISN 55 E LWT 60 E S80 15 SW S06 90 WNW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA...WITH PRIMARY REGION OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND INTO NERN CO. WHILE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MN INTO NERN SD...STRONGER INSOLATION AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SWD EXTENT HAVE ALLOWED MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SERN SD...TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES TSTMS CONGEALING INTO CLUSTERS ACROSS ERN CO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN PROGRESS ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINES OVER PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB. LOCAL PROFILERS FROM MCCOOK NEB AND GRENADA CO INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 25-30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THUS...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPANDING COLD POOLS MAY PROMOTE UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY WRN KS OVERNIGHT. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN SD INTO SRN MN...WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...HOWEVER TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE. IF STORMS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING OVER ERN NM COUPLED WITH NWWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ ACROSS WRN TX HAVE AIDED IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OK PNHDL SWD INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL/TX S PLAINS. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS OF 25-35F AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY TRY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..MEAD.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 05:38:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 00:38:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406160538.i5G5c9213692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160536 SWODY1 SPC AC 160534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW MCK 35 SSE MKT 30 NNW VOK 20 SSW OSH 20 WNW RFD 15 NNW CNU 65 NNW CDS 45 E FST 35 W FST 35 SW CAO 30 SW PUB 20 SSE DEN 20 WNW MCK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GDP 15 W CNM 25 NE ROW 45 NNW TCC 50 SSW ALS 55 E IGM 15 E PMD 15 NNW BFL 35 W BIH 55 ESE TVL 35 ESE LOL 10 W EKO 35 WNW MLD 40 SW MQM 15 ENE 27U 55 SW MSO 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 10 SSW GGW 30 NE BIL 15 NE COD 45 N CPR 45 NNE CDR 25 ESE 9V9 20 W RWF 35 E STC 30 S DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ART GFL 20 S PSM ...CONT... 60 NW MFE 35 NE JCT 20 WNW FTW 25 NE OKC 30 SW END 45 NNE CDS 45 SSW CDS 50 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL CANADA SWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT PATTERN ACROSS SERN CANADA. SRN BRANCH TROUGH ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD/EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CNTRL IA/CNTRL KS INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT OVER S-CNTRL/ERN KS POSSIBLY INTO NRN OK/NRN TX PNHDL. ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF KS AND NEB ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. DEGREE OF AIRMASS PROCESSING BY THIS CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF ERN CO/KS/NEB PORTION OF FRONT. 04Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL LOW PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO SWWD INTO SWRN KS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. BY AFTERNOON...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD AID IN INTENSIFICATION OF ANY ONGOING STORMS. INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AT THIS TIME WITHIN REGIONS OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STRENGTHENING BRANCH OF WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CO/KS/NEB FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK AND BACKED HIGH LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FARTHER N...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...SUGGESTING THE LIKLIHOOD OF MULTICELLULAR OR LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S...STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING ZONAL MID-LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY NWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEY... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL REMAINS RELATIVELY POOR...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS /PARTICULARLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD OUT OF SRN QUEBEC MAY ACT TO STRENGTHEN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SERN NY WWD ACROSS PA INTO NRN OH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF FRONT. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL DURING PEAK HEATING. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 12:50:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 07:50:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406161250.i5GCob226683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161248 SWODY1 SPC AC 161246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GRB 15 NW MMO 50 SSE OJC 60 E AMA 40 ENE FST 35 W FST 40 NW CAO 60 WSW COS 20 SE 4FC 30 NNW MCK 40 N FOD RHI 10 N GRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MFE 35 NE JCT 20 WNW FTW 10 ESE OKC 45 NE CSM 45 WSW CSM 45 SSW CDS 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 SW GDP 15 W CNM 25 NE ROW 45 NNW TCC 50 SSW ALS 55 E IGM 15 E PMD 15 NNW BFL 35 W BIH 55 ESE TVL 35 ESE LOL 10 W EKO 35 WNW MLD 40 SW MQM 15 ENE 27U 55 SW MSO 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 75 N GFK 40 SE P24 45 ESE Y22 30 NNE 9V9 20 W RWF 35 E STC 30 S DLH 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 40 NNE ART GFL 20 S PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BASICALLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN / NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS DOWNSTREAM BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN U.S. INTO SRN ONTARIO / QUEBEC. A SECONDARY BAND OF ENHANCED / MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO ARC CYCLONICALLY FROM NM NEWD ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW OVER NERN TX WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD / NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONGER BELT OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD -- AROUND THE NRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF PERSISTENT SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EWD TO THE NJ COAST...WHILE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...OH VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD TO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION...WHILE RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NWD ACROSS NY. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG AND NEAR SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE -- AND IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY SUGGESTING ONLY WEAKLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE OK / TX PANHANDLES / SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THIS REGION...ELY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR AND N OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD VEER WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 30 TO 40 KT AT MID-LEVELS. RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. MORE ISOLATED MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM INTO WRN PORTIONS OF TX ALONG DRYLINE AS CAP ERODES LOCALLY ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A DIURNAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ...LOWER AND MID MS / OH VALLEYS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NWD INTO ERN OK INVOF WEAKENING UPPER LOW...AND THEN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / ALONG AND N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ATTM...VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE / S OF SURFACE FRONT. AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE / INTENSITY. JUST AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW / TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...BELT OF MODERATE SLY / SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS. THIS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL HOWEVER...VERY LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ...PA / SRN NY / NJ INTO THE DELMARVA... ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTS S OF RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING / SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT POCKETS OF HEATING SHOULD NONETHELESS OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER / DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT SHOULD REMAIN LOW HOWEVER...WITH THREAT DECREASING AFTER DARK. ..GOSS.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 16:07:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 11:07:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406161607.i5GG75230307@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161604 SWODY1 SPC AC 161602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LBL 35 W EHA 50 NNW CAO 35 NE TAD 20 ESE PUB 35 E COS 15 SSW LIC 25 WSW GLD 30 SSE GLD 15 NNW GCK 15 ESE LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GRB 15 NW MMO 50 SSE OJC 60 E AMA 40 ENE FST 35 W FST RTN 60 NNE ALS 20 SE 4FC 30 NNW MCK 40 N FOD RHI 10 N GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKL 35 SSW PAH 20 ESE MDH 15 WSW SLO 30 SW MTO 15 NNE MTO 25 E IND 20 NW LUK 20 SE LUK 35 E LEX 30 SW LOZ 40 SSE BNA 35 NE MKL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE MLU 45 WSW GLH 40 N GLH 55 SW MEM UOX 25 SSW TUP 45 SSW CBM 15 SW MEI 40 SSW LUL 30 SSE MCB 35 S HEZ 15 ENE ESF 20 NNE MLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ELP 45 SW ROW 60 SW TCC 25 E LVS 35 WSW RTN 40 NE 4SL 35 SW FMN 60 NE INW 50 N SOW 10 ESE SOW 65 ENE PHX 55 ENE IGM 10 NW IGM 20 SE RAL 20 NE LAX 15 N SBA 40 NNE SBA 20 WSW BFL 50 N BFL 50 ENE MER 45 SSW TVL 15 NW TVL 30 S NFL 15 WSW U31 55 WSW ENV 10 WNW DPG 10 S OGD 25 NE MLD 35 NNW PIH 35 NNW SUN 60 SSE S80 30 SSW S80 10 W S80 45 NNE S80 20 SSW S06 55 NW S06 40 NE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ALB BDL 25 S GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 10 WNW MOT 20 NNE OLF 65 SW GGW 35 W BIL 30 NNW RIW 30 ESE RIW 30 W CPR 45 S 81V 35 N RAP 30 NW PIR 30 NE BKX 30 NE RWF 35 S DLH 35 ENE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW LRD 30 N JCT 20 N MWL 40 ENE SPS 15 ENE FSI 50 W SPS 65 S CDS 40 NNW SJT 65 WSW SJT 30 N P07 25 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO AND SWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD TO IA /WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY BAND OF WLYS REMAINS ACROSS NRN CONUS WITH S/WV TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS. IN SRN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY WHILE TROUGH OVER AZ LIFTS NEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES. A VERY MOIST SLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM GULF COAST TO OH VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S ALONG WITH MDT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE 25-30KT OF PREVAILING FLOW. ADDITIONALLY SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SERN CO AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL CO. FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD TODAY AS AIRMASS TO S OF FRONT IN WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WITH A BAND OF 30-40 KT 500 MB WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM AZ...COUPLED WITH CONTINUED 20-30KT LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SERN CO INTO SWRN KS. WITH HEATING THE AIR MASS THIS AREA WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG BY 21Z ALONG WITH MINIMAL CIN. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM HIGHER TERRAIN EWD ACROSS MDT RISK AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE LIKELY GIVEN THE DISCUSSED AVAILABLE PARAMETERS. FURTHER NE VICINITY OF COLD FRONT SHEAR WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP WEAKENS VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ...OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS OVER TX LIFTS NEWD...A BAND OF 25-30 KT SSWLY WINDS FROM BOUNDARY LAYER TO 500MB IS IN PLACE FROM LWR MS VALLEY NEWD TO WRN OH VALLEY. WITH TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON THESE AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW VICINITY STL WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IN. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH LOW LCLS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY SIMILAR SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS MS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS LA. ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY AS HEATING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY THRU THE AFTERNOON. REF MCD 1300. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 20:20:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 15:20:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406162020.i5GKKh214493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162018 SWODY1 SPC AC 162016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LBL 35 W EHA 50 NNW CAO 35 NE TAD 20 ESE PUB 35 E COS 15 SSW LIC 25 WSW GLD 30 SSE GLD 15 NNW GCK 15 ESE LBL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GRB 15 NW MMO JEF 65 ENE AMA 25 SSE FST 20 NNW MRF 40 WNW RTN 4FC 40 ENE LIC LNK 25 SE FRM RHI 10 N GRB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OWB MDH BLV 20 N CMI 35 S FDY CMH 30 WNW UNI HTS LOZ 65 ENE BWG OWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW GWO 30 S MEM 45 NNE UOX TUP CBM MEI 40 SSW LUL 45 W GPT BTR 30 NNE LFT 15 NW GWO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT MOT OLF 65 SW GGW 35 W BIL COD RIW CPR 45 S 81V 35 N RAP MBG 35 NE ATY STC 35 S DLH 35 ENE CMX ...CONT... 35 NW SYR ALB BDL 25 S GON ...CONT... LRD DAL 50 ESE OKC OKC 50 W SPS 25 SSW P07 ...CONT... 40 SE ELP 45 SW ROW 55 NNW ROW 15 SE LVS 35 WSW RTN 55 SW ALS 60 NE INW 10 ESE SOW 65 ENE PHX 55 ENE IGM 10 NW IGM 55 NNE TRM EDW 15 N SBA 50 N BFL 50 ENE MER 45 SSW TVL TVL U31 55 WSW ENV 10 WNW DPG OGD 25 NE MLD 35 NNW PIH 35 NNW SUN 30 SSW S80 40 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO/SWRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM TX PECOS VALLEY TO ERN CO/WRN KS PLAINS TO SRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN IL TO SWRN OH AND NERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MS AND PARTS OF SERN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM N-CENTRAL CANADA SWWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND NWRN STATES. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NEB/IA BORDER REGION SHOULD MOVE NEWD TOWARD SRN WI AND LM BY END OF PERIOD...DEAMPLIFYING SOMEWHAT. PERSISTENT LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH -- NOW ANALYZED AS WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION -- SHOULD DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY. ANOTHER SRN-STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG LOW LEVEL FRONT OVER NWRN NM. FRONT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS SERN CO...NWRN KS AND SERN NEB TO LOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA. HIGH PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL OUTFLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD ACROSS IA...REMAINDER NEB...NERN MO AND NERN KS. ...S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS -- WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SEVERE GUSTS AND TORNADOES -- IS INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AND OVER MDT RISK AREA. IN THIS REGION...UPSLOPE/BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND FRONTAL PROCESSES WILL COMBINE TO MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL SHEAR....DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...CONVERGENCE...AND AVAILABLE VORTICITY. REF WW 482 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR NOWCAST GUIDANCE OVER THIS REGION. 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW --EVIDENT IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ACROSS THIS REGION -- SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE INTO EVENING AS INITIAL TSTMS NOW OVER SERN CO AND RTN/TAD AREAS MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE UP TO NEAR 3500 J/KG...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. FCST HODOGRAPHS YIELD OVER 200 J/KG SRH JUST IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER...OVER MOST OF MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. FARTHER S...TSTMS INCREASING OVER NRN NM NEAR I-25 MAY INTENSIFY CONSIDERABLY...PARTICULARLY IF THIS ACTIVITY LASTS LONG ENOUGH FOR MOIST SECTOR E OF DRYLINE - ESTIMATED 50-80 NM FARTHER E -- TO BACK WWD INTO CONVECTIVE INFLOW. REF WW 484 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ONE OR TWO MCS OUGHT TO EVOLVE ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL MOVE EWD OR ESEWD TOWARD PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL BEING PRODUCED. 35-45 KT SLY LLJ FCST OVER PANHANDLES TONIGHT SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...PERHAPS AS LATE AS 9Z. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING INVOF DRYLINE...SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305. ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGIONS... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN CLUSTERS EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING -- BOTH IN EVOLUTION FROM ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NWRN IA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS REGION. REF WW 483 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKNESSES ARE EVIDENT IN LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES AND STORM-RELATIVE FLOWS ABOVE SFC...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS IL/WI. THIS IS RELATED TO ISALLOBARIC BACKING OF FLOW AHEAD OF SFC LOW. PRECONVECTIVE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA BECAUSE OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER NERN KS/MO. ...MS DELTA AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS... BELT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF ARKLATEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- AND E OF A LOW-MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT ON VIS/IR IMAGERY OVER IL -- ALONG WITH VAST AREA OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OF TROPICAL ORIGINS. TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE ANYWHERE IN THIS BELT...BUT ARE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED INVOF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY OVER MS AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER INDIANA/IL. WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE AND MULTICELL TSTMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET FARTHER S AND E OVER AL/TN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF CONVECTIVE WIND EVENTS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 01:12:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 20:12:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406170112.i5H1Cb202039@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170109 SWODY1 SPC AC 170107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CNM 20 WNW CVS 20 W EHA 40 SE LAA 25 N LHX 15 NNW LIC 15 E AKO 45 SW IML 30 NNE GLD 25 SW HLC 15 N RSL 30 NNW MHK 30 WSW STJ 15 WNW OJC 35 N CNU 15 NNW END 30 WSW CSM 45 E LBB MAF 25 SSE CNM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE VOK 40 NNW GRB 40 ENE GRB 15 ESE MKE 15 SW MMO 10 N MLI 10 SSE LNR 25 NNE VOK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW LAF 10 NNW TOL CLE 30 S CAK 25 NNE UNI 20 SW LUK 45 NW EVV MTO 30 NNW LAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 40 SW GGW 20 SE GTF 55 SSE FCA 60 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD 25 SE HDO 55 NW VCT 20 SSE HOU 10 WSW LCH 10 S ESF 50 ENE ELD 20 ENE HOT 15 WNW FSM 55 E OKC 10 N SPS 35 SW ABI 45 SE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX GNV 40 W AGR 50 SSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ART 20 NNW MSV 15 SW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE ELP 30 E 4CR 50 W RTN 40 N ALS 25 SSW GUC 20 ENE CEZ 75 NW GUP 35 WNW FLG 40 SSW EED 20 N RAL 15 N BFL 40 NE MER 30 ESE TVL 35 SE NFL 45 NNE ELY 20 S SLC 55 E MLD 40 NNW JAC 45 E WEY 10 E COD 25 WSW CPR 45 NW BFF 25 NNW VTN 50 SSE 9V9 20 ENE SUX 20 N FOD 30 SSE MSP 35 S IWD 75 NW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN IL TO OH... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... HIGH PLAINS MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MATURE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ALONG/NORTH OF EXISTING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOUTH OF MHK TO NEAR DDC IN KS. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MVC MAY BE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST BOW-SHAPED CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS. WITH AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IT APPEARS THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLY LLJ THAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF BOW SHAPED FEATURE...OTHERWISE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH MUCH OF THE PLAINS ACTIVITY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS DOWNSTREAM...ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG SBCAPE. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...WI/OH VALLEY... LONG-LIVED MCS STRUCTURE CONTINUES ITS ENEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN MN/NERN IA INTO WI. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEWD-EXTENDING WARM ADVECTION BANDS WELL AHEAD OF MAIN CLUSTER. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NON SEVERE AND MAY REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PAST HISTORY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CURRENT MODE OF THE CONVECTION...00Z PROFILES FROM GRB AND DVN SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. NUMEROUS DEEPENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER SERN IL/IND. 00Z ILN SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH QUITE VEERED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT. GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROUGHLY 1.75 INCHES...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE WITHIN THIS EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. ..DARROW.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 06:03:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 01:03:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406170603.i5H638218345@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170600 SWODY1 SPC AC 170559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ROW 40 W TCC 20 SSW COS 25 SSE DEN 25 S AKO 30 NE GLD 35 NNE RSL 20 ESE SLN 35 N PNC 20 W FSI 65 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50 WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 25 NNE SHD 20 N HGR 40 NNE CXY 10 NE ABE 15 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW INL 45 ENE FAR 40 W ABR 25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI 10 ESE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL 15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60 SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA REGION... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...AROUND ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE...INTO SERN CO AROUND PEAK HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CO...MAINTAINING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE DIURNAL SCENARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING MCS IS PROPAGATING STEADILY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGH PLAINS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE RATHER EARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CO/NRN NM THEN SPREAD EWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...THEN STORM MERGERS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS AND EVENTUALLY AN MCS SHOULD EMERGE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANY MCS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY PRODUCED FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS ARCING FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL LIFT NEWD AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD INDUCE WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING WHICH MAY AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED AS MODEST FLOW AT 500MB...ROUGHLY 25-30KT...SPREADS ACROSS WV INTO DELMARVA REGION. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO STEEPEN IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...SBCAPES MAY EXCEED 2500J/KG...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. ...NORTH DAKOTA... RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A NARROW AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM...THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 12:48:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 07:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406171248.i5HCmd224423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171245 SWODY1 SPC AC 171242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ORF 50 WSW ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 N LYH 30 NNE PSB 40 NNW MSV 25 N BAF 20 E BOS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE ROW 35 WNW PUB 10 WSW DEN 25 S AKO 35 NNE RSL 20 ESE SLN 35 N PNC 45 NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 NNE ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW COT 30 SSW TPL 15 N ACT 20 E SEP 15 NE BWD 50 E SJT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SSE ELP 30 ESE ALM 30 NE 4CR 30 WNW LVS 35 NW 4SL 40 WSW FMN 45 S PGA 50 NW EED 50 SE BIH TVL RBL 35 SW MFR 45 NNW LMT 85 NNW WMC 30 WSW OWY 60 SSE BYI 50 W IDA 75 E BKE 45 N BKE 15 E ALW 30 S S06 30 N MSO 35 NNW HLN 65 SW GGW 60 NNE GGW ...CONT... 15 SSW INL 30 SE BJI 30 SE ABR 25 ENE RAP CDR 30 ESE AIA 25 WNW BBW OFK FOD LSE 15 NNW RHI 10 ESE MQT 10 S ANJ ...CONT... MSS PBG PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN / NRN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN ELONGATING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED AXIS OF 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW PERSISTS FROM WY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH...CIRCULATION NOW OVER NV IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD...REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST...UPPER HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER NRN AR MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND NRN FRINGE UPPER RIDGE. ENHANCED BELT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS INDICATED ATTM INVOF SRN LK MI...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SRN KS AND A WARM FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN PA. THIS LOW / FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME TODAY...WITH MOST DEFINED PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS SERN CO / SWRN KS / THE TX OK PANHANDLE REGION. FINALLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA / SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO CENTRAL KS / WRN OK... SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED OVER SERN CO / SWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT -- AIDED BY APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW OVER NV. AIRMASS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS NERN NM / SERN CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX / OK PANHANDLES INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK / KS. ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS PA / SRN NY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MS / NRN AR / TN / KY WITHIN WARM SECTOR...AS UPPER VORT MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SERN NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND SWD INTO VA INVOF LEE TROUGH WHERE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR MORE NUMEROUS STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST. ...ND... MINIMAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ND / NWRN MN AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:10:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:10:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406172011.i5HKBP204057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 172008 SWODY1 SPC AC 172006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ORF 40 SSE RIC 25 SSE LYH 25 SSE BLF 20 WNW TRI TYS 20 WSW TYS CSV 45 N JKL 35 WSW UNI 30 NE PIT 30 W ELM 10 NNW PSF 20 ENE BOS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ROW 25 SSE LVS 30 SSE ALS 40 E GUC 55 E ASE 30 SE 4FC 30 N LIC 15 W GLD 45 WSW HLC 25 WNW MHK 25 E MHK 35 SSW OJC 60 NNE JLN 20 W TBN 25 N UNO 20 E UNO 55 WSW ARG 10 N FSM 40 WNW FYV 15 NNE TUL 20 SW PNC 45 NNE CSM 55 S CDS 45 S LBB 35 ENE ROW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 45 NNW AYS AGR 15 N PBI ...CONT... 40 N BRO 20 S LRD ...CONT... 50 WSW COT 40 NNE CLL 30 WNW TYR 25 N FTW 10 WNW ABI 30 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 15 ESE ALM 35 NNE ALM 30 WSW 4CR 20 SSE ABQ 20 ESE 4SL 40 ESE DRO 15 E FMN 35 N GUP 50 NNW INW 30 SSW GCN 30 NNW IGM 40 SSW LAS 60 SW DRA 65 SE BIH 20 N BIH 70 SSE TVL 30 WSW TVL 55 WNW TVL 30 ESE RBL 50 W RBL 25 NE 4BK 20 SE EUG 40 WSW RDM 65 NNE LMT 45 ESE 4LW 75 NW WMC 30 NNW WMC 20 WNW OWY 30 SW TWF 30 NNE ENV 40 W OGD 30 S MLD 20 SSE IDA 50 WNW IDA 35 WNW SUN 40 ESE BKE 35 WNW BKE 20 S PDT 20 NNW PDT 55 N ALW 15 SW GEG 35 E GEG 45 NNW MSO 20 NNW HLN 45 SE GTF 15 SE LWT 65 N SHR 50 ENE 4BQ 35 E P24 55 N DVL ...CONT... 25 NNW ELO 40 WSW DLH 30 SSW STC 25 NNW OTG 30 WSW MHE 65 E ANW 35 NW OFK 30 WSW OMA 55 NNE FNB OTM 15 ENE CID 35 NNW LSE 30 NE EAU 30 NNW AUW 50 NW TVC 40 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 25 WSW MSS 15 SSW PBG 15 SSW MWN 30 S AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 4OM EAT 15 W YKM 35 SE OLM 15 NNE SEA 10 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ/SERN NY AND DELMARVA...CNTRL APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...SERN NY/ERN PA/NJ/DELMARVA... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ACTIVITY WAS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW AMPLITUDE AND FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS PA. LOCALLY STRONG SR FLOW AND SHEAR...AND ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL... WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FROM NERN PA ACROSS SERN NY. IN ADDITION...40-45KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE ONGOING LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO CNTRL PA WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS NJ/NYC AREAS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WHERE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WAS CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...CO/NM ESEWD ACROSS TX/OK PNHDLS... LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BACKED WELL WWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN/SCNTRL CO AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AND INTO NWRN OK. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA AND PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF HIGH SRH...LOW LFC AND ABUNDANT CAPE WAS SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM PUB TO LBL. LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS A BIT WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT...ACROSS ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SUPPORT INTENSE AND POSSIBLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEE LATEST WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ..CARBIN.. 06/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 00:47:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 19:47:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406180048.i5I0m7226313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180045 SWODY1 SPC AC 180043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW WAL 45 W NHK 30 NW SHD 20 SE PKB ZZV CAK 15 E YNG 25 WNW AOO 35 ESE CXY 10 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HOB 40 N TCC 20 NE RTN 25 WSW PUB 20 WNW COS 35 SE DEN 35 NE LIC 10 E GLD 20 W RSL 25 ENE HUT 20 SE ICT 15 W OKC 50 SSW SPS 10 SW ABI 15 S BGS 30 NW HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 30 NNE AYS MGR 15 S PFN ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 40 W AUS 45 S TYR 40 NW ESF 40 SSE GLH 55 ENE PBF 35 ENE PGO 30 ENE DUA 15 NW SEP 35 NW JCT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 SW ELP 35 NW 4CR 30 ENE 4SL 35 ESE FMN 60 NW GUP 35 SSW GCN 40 NNW EED 45 ENE NID 45 SSW TVL 35 ESE RBL 60 SSW 4LW 60 NW WMC 40 WNW ENV 35 W SLC 30 ESE EVW 40 SSE CPR 25 SW VTN 25 ESE OFK 20 NNE STJ 10 SSE SZL 10 SSE VIH 25 WSW IND 40 WNW CLE 10 SSW BUF 10 SSE UCA 20 ENE PSF 15 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 30 W BRD 35 ESE ABR 40 SE MBG 20 ENE MBG 45 SE JMS 35 SSW TVF 35 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO THE DELMARVA... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN CO...SEWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TO THE SE OF LBB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COLD POOL SLOWLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. WITH TIME ONE OR MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD EMERGE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS LLJ INCREASES SOMEWHAT FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH REASONABLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATION. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE STORM MERGERS AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR...IT APPEARS A SLOWLY EVOLVING WIND THREAT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT MODE AS COLD POOL DRIVES CONVECTION EWD. ...OH TO DELMARVA... DEEP WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE BANDED STRUCTURES FROM ERN OH...SEWD INTO THE DELMARVA. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO THRIVE ON MODERATE INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG...THAT HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. IT APPEARS A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT TO OVERALL ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN OH...ESEWD ACROSS WV INTO SRN MD BY 03Z. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY BOW-LIKE STRUCTURES THAT CAN ORIENT THEMSELVES IN A SW-NE FASHION. ..DARROW.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 06:00:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 01:00:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406180601.i5I61Z209743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180559 SWODY1 SPC AC 180557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LIC 45 SSW GLD 35 ENE DDC 15 SSE ICT 10 SSW CNU 45 SSE SZL 35 S UIN 10 W DEC 25 NNE HUF 25 N SDF 35 E BWG 35 SSW BNA 40 S MKL 45 N TXK 40 SSE SPS 30 NE BGS 10 SE HOB 45 ENE ROW 45 NW TCC RTN 30 WSW PUB 35 SW LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 20 SW CLL 15 SE ACT 40 S SEP 40 N JCT 20 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 45 W GEG 30 N 3TH 25 SSW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 20 NNW LNK 30 S ALO 30 NNW MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN ELONGATED ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SRN U.S...AND MODEST WLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL BE THE GRADUAL SWD ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/OK REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWD SHIFT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN CO INTO NERN NM...WITHIN A ZONE OF SUSTAINED ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. IT'S NOT OBVIOUS BASED ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY...OR 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXPECTED AREA OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC DEW POINTS FROM THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F AND CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000J/KG. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE EARLY CONVECTIVE MODE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BY EARLY-MID EVENING. EWD PROPAGATION INTO OK SHOULD OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITIONS INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...MID MS VALLEY/LOWER OH...TN VALLEY... ONGOING MCS FROM KS INTO CENTRAL OK IS PROPAGATING STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WELL AHEAD OF 00Z MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS EASILY INTO WRN MO/NERN OK BY 12Z. WITH ROUGHLY 25-35KT OF WLY H5 FLOW ACROSS MO INTO NRN AR...REMNANTS OF THIS MCS SHOULD REGENERATE AS THEY ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST LIKELY ZONE OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SERN MO/SRN IL BY 18Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAP...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EWD PROPAGATION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/WRN TN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 12:54:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 07:54:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406181255.i5ICtM202744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181253 SWODY1 SPC AC 181251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N LHX 15 W GCK 30 ESE ICT 55 NNE JLN 45 S UIN 20 NNE MTO 55 E BMG 50 W LOZ 50 N HSV 40 NNE TXK 50 NE ABI MAF 30 NE CNM 30 W TAD 15 N LHX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 20 NNW LNK 30 S ALO 30 NNW MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 20 SW CLL 15 SE ACT 40 S SEP 40 N JCT 20 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND PART OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE FRONT ESTABLISHING ITSELF FARTHER S WITH THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW MO SWWD THROUGH SWRN OK AND INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER PART OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE 50S IN SE CO TO THE 60S IN ERN NM BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO BE OVER NM INTO PARTS OF W TX...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH NWD DISTANCE INTO CO DUE TO LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BEING FROM THE LOWER THETA-E AIR OVER KS. NERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SERN CO WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLYS WITH 30-35 KT ABOVE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME FROM NM NWD THROUGH CNTRL CO. STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM NERN NM/SE CO AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OR TWO DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SLY NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH PART OF TN AND OH VALLEYS... THIS MORNING A LINEAR MCS ACCOMPANIED BY AN MCV EXTENDS ACROSS WRN MO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO ENEWD THROUGH SRN IL...SRN IND AND CNTRL/ERN OH. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL HEATING SHOULD OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IL AND WRN KY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID AND WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT...THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 16:38:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 11:38:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406181638.i5IGch213687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181636 SWODY1 SPC AC 181634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUB 20 NNW GCK 10 ESE ICT 55 NNE JLN 30 NE BMI 50 N LAF 25 SSW MIE 60 E BWG 60 SW BNA PBF 35 NW MWL MAF 30 NE CNM 40 E ALS PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 10 W NIR 45 NNW VCT 10 SW AUS 35 E JCT 30 SW JCT 20 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 25 NW FNB 30 SE OTM 15 NE MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY... NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WERE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARY FRONT APPARENTLY MOVING SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND SWD INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK. TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NERN NM. AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN MO ...WITH YET ANOTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO ERN AR/SWRN TN. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND WEAKLY CAPPED. THIS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THESE SURFACE FEATURES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS MODEST...AREAS FROM SRN/ERN OK INTO AR WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KT/ FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH A BRIEF THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/LEE SLOPES OVER SERN CO AND ERN NM... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...SUGGESTING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE ONCE AGAIN INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/MCSS AND TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF OK OVERNIGHT. ...MID MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ARE LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS MO THIS MORNING. APPEARS HEATING WILL BE QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN IA/N-CENTRAL MO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN/ERN MO INTO PORTIONS OF IL/IND/KY. CONWAY PROFILER INDICATED 40-50 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING WHICH IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE ETA. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AS THESE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE MID MS AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...IN WHICH CASE A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS... STRONG HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY 18Z. MODELS SUGGEST 25-30 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TEMPORARILY FLATTENS RIDGING NOW IN PLACE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SEPARATE AREA EXPECTED ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. APPEARS LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODULATE ANY SEVERE THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MODEST SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIND DAMAGE OCCURRENCES IN STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN ROCKIES... THIS AREA WILL UNDERGO QUITE A BIT OF HEATING TODAY...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE EVIDENT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR UNDER MODEST COOLING AT THE MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW NOW SETTLING SLOWLY SEWD. THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:17:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:17:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406182018.i5IKIV217409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182014 SWODY1 SPC AC 182012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MWL 50 WNW ABI 10 E MAF 25 ESE INK 20 SW FST 35 E MRF 20 SE MRF 20 W MRF 35 S GDP 25 NNW GDP 25 SE 4CR 25 S LVS 45 WSW RTN 15 ESE ALS 55 NNE ALS 15 ENE COS 35 N LHX 20 W GCK 35 SE DDC 10 SSE P28 30 WNW JLN 40 NNW SGF 30 WSW COU 25 W UIN 20 SSE PIA 10 WSW LAF 40 SSE MIE 35 NE SDF 20 SSE OWB 35 SSE PAH 35 N MEM 25 WNW ELD 45 WNW MWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB ...CONT... 10 NW BVE 25 NE BPT 25 WSW CLL 15 NNW AUS 55 E JCT 35 SSW JCT 20 NNW DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 45 NE P38 45 NNE BIH 50 SSW TVL 55 S RBL 45 ESE EKA 25 SW MFR 40 E EUG 35 SW YKM 15 NE 63S 45 NW FCA 45 WNW GTF 35 SSE BIL 35 N CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 SE LBF 25 NW FNB 30 SE OTM 15 NE MSN 15 NNE GRB 30 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SRN ROCKIES FRONT RANGE TO SRN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TX... ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON EXPECTED FROM SCNTRL/SERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN HALF NM...WEST TX...AND INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND NWRN TX WITH TIME. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW AND FRONTAL INTRUSIONS BACKING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE HAVE RESULTED IN A COMPOSITE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOST STRONGLY DEFINED IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD FROM SWRN OK WNWWD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE OF SCNTRL CO/NRN NM. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN DRIFT EAST INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY SITUATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED LIFT...MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM THE SERN TX PNHDL WNWWD INTO NERN NM. INITIAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH A HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MELD INTO AN MCS AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE MCS WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS ACROSS TX PNHDL AND INTO WRN OK. ...MO/IL SWWD TO OZARKS/RED RIVER... MCV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE WAVE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...POLAR FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND MAY ACTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING. AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW/MCV EWD TO THE OH VALLEY. LASTLY... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SERN MO...TO THE OZARKS...AND THEN TO THE RED RIVER. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITHIN WIDESPREAD VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STORMS ON THE RED RIVER AND OVER THE OZARKS IS WEAK AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SOME DOWNBURST WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE EWD EXTENDING BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...ASCENT/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN IL AND THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST... A NUMBER OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS EXIST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN PIEDMONT SWWD TO THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD SOME OF THESE MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS... WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE LIKELY GOING TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNSET. ...ID... A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH. STRONG ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS. LARGE SURFACE-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FEW HAIL AND WIND REPORTS. ..CARBIN.. 06/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 00:44:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 19:44:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406190044.i5J0ig218510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190042 SWODY1 SPC AC 190041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FSI 50 SSE CDS 50 N BGS 25 SE HOB 40 WNW HOB 45 W CVS 35 SSE RTN 15 ENE TAD 10 ENE LHX 40 E LAA 15 ESE GCK 25 SSW P28 35 NW OKC FSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW BVE 25 E LFT 20 E LFK 50 E ACT 40 SSE SEP 30 N JCT 20 NNW DRT ...CONT... 15 WNW ELP 25 NW 4CR 40 N SAF 35 ENE DRO 40 NW 4BL 35 E P38 45 ENE NID 50 NW NID 25 NNE SCK 20 WNW RBL MFR 45 N ONP ...CONT... 60 WNW 4OM 35 SE 63S 25 WNW MSO 10 N BTM 50 E WEY 10 E RIW 50 SSE CPR 25 SSW BFF 15 W LBF 15 WNW GRI 30 WNW BIE 20 NW FLV 30 NNE COU 15 SW CMI 10 WNW MIE 30 WSW CMH 15 ENE PKB 15 ESE MGW 15 W AOO 25 NE PSB 10 NW ELM 45 NW SYR ...CONT... 40 NW CAR 40 SW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SRN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM SERN NM...NEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO THE SAME TYPE OF STRUCTURE THAT WED/THURSDAY EVENING MCS CLUSTERS EXHIBITED. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR TONIGHT IS THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT IS SPREADING WWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS OUTFLOW MAY ENHANCE NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SUGGESTS AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ELONGATED MCS SHOULD EMERGE AND PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY LATE EVENING. ..DARROW.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 05:36:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 00:36:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406190537.i5J5bW206367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190535 SWODY1 SPC AC 190533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HOB 25 NW INK 30 NW GDP 40 S 4CR 45 SSW LVS 35 W TAD 25 SSW COS 35 N COS 15 WNW LIC 40 SSE LIC 40 N CAO 20 ESE CVS 30 NNE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 SW GUP 35 ESE 4HV 20 ENE U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE NFL 40 NNE FAT 45 SW TVL 35 E MHS 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ 25 SSW ABR RWF FRM 10 WSW P35 20 SW OJC 45 E BVO 25 E FSM 35 NNE LIT 45 ENE PAH 15 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 SE HGR 10 E BWI 25 NNE ABE 40 WSW MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND ERN CO... ...CO/NM... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO TX DURING THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD ACROSS TX DEEP INTO CENTRAL NM...LIKELY WEST OF THE ERN MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS CO...WITH A SWD SHIFT TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. LATEST THINKING IS MOST ACTIVITY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WHERE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM...WITH SUFFICIENT VEERING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. FARTHER NORTH INTO CO...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD TOWARD THE ERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT SPREAD OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY LOSE INTENSITY AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER LAPSE RATES OVER ERN CO. HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS FARTHER EAST. ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CANADA/NERN U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL FORCE NORTH/SOUTH WARM FRONT EWD IN ADVANCE OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RESULTANT MOISTENING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST DATA/GUIDANCE SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIMITED. STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD AID AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. ...INTERIOR NW... UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR EWD ACROSS WA/ORE INTO NRN WY SATURDAY. BENEATH THIS SHEARING TROUGH H5 TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL WITH REASONABLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION TO SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY ROBUST CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 12:48:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 07:48:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406191249.i5JCn7232216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191247 SWODY1 SPC AC 191245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W PVW 30 NNW MAF 35 SE CNM 30 ESE ALM 50 SSW LVS 35 W COS 20 WSW FCL 45 E FCL AKO 30 NNW LAA 15 NNW DHT 40 W PVW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ 25 SSW ABR RWF FRM 10 SW P35 35 SE SZL 30 WNW UNO 25 N ARG 25 WSW EVV 15 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 SE HGR 10 E BWI 25 NNE ABE 40 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 SW GUP 35 ESE 4HV 20 ENE U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE NFL 40 NNE FAT 45 SW TVL 35 E MHS 30 S ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... A SURFACE FRONT...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW... EXTENDS FROM NRN TX WWD INTO NERN NM. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER DIFFUSE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AS FAR N AS SRN KS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY...RESULTING IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING FROM ELY TO SELY OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER ERN CO AND INTO NE NM REMAIN FROM THE COOLER...LOW THETA-E AIR RESIDING ACROSS KANSAS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND OBTAINS A LARGER SLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME FROM THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDING OVER TX AND OK. MOREOVER... WEAKENING UPSLOPE COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING WITH TIME WILL MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND CO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CNTRL NM NWD THROUGH CNTRL CO. EWD EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IS CONDITIONAL UPON LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT...AND IT APPEARS LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ERN CO WILL MIX OUT SLOWER DUE TO PRESENCE OF A DEEPER COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN NM INTO CO WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY...AS WELL AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO FAR ERN CO/WRN KS WILL BE LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF COOL STABLE AIR WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY. OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL FROM PARTS OF NRN KS INTO NEB. ...CNTRL/E TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND EXTEND WWD THROUGH TX. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXIST THIS MORNING N OF AN E-W FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THOUGH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY NOON...DURATION OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO INITIATE. WILL KEEP THIS AREA IN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION... COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES THIS AFTERNOON. OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE AOB 800 J/KG. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 16:38:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 11:38:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406191639.i5JGd7208993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191636 SWODY1 SPC AC 191634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E 4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 20 W FCL 45 E FCL AKO 20 NW LAA 25 SSW CVS 25 E 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 45 NE SAD 20 E GNT 35 WNW 4SL 20 NNW CEZ 20 ENE U24 35 N ELY 45 NE U31 20 NNW LOL 25 NNE SVE 35 E MHS 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ 45 SW MBG 30 NNW SUX 25 WSW LWD 40 S SZL 30 WNW UNO 25 ENE ARG 45 ENE DYR 30 S OWB 40 NE SDF 20 WNW HLG 30 ENE PIT AOO 35 E HGR 25 W ILG 40 NE ABE 15 NE MSV 40 NNE UCA 45 W MSS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NM AND CO... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL PREVAIL. THOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMITED OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO EXPERIENCE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND SUPPORT MODEST SHEAR. ...NM INTO CO/SERN WY... SURFACE RIDGING...ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL OK AND NWRN TX TODAY. THIS WILL SHIFT ESELY SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GENERALLY WWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING MORE SELY OVER ERN CO INTO SERN WY AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. WLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-40 KT WILL PERSIST FROM ERN WY INTO NRN NM AND SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... INCLUDING SUPERCELLS TODAY. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR OVER CO/SERN WY WILL BE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BURN-OFF AND ALLOW LATE DAY SUN TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR FAVORABLE TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVERGENT ZONES LATER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY ALLOW STORMS TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EWD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO INCREASED CAPPING. WILL LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF SLIGHT TO NRN CO ATTM...DUE TO GREATER CERTAINTY OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN WY AS WELL SHOULD POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT BEST FROM ROUGHLY I-40 SWD IN NM...WITH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...HEATING WILL BE STRONG OVER THIS REGION AS AREA REMAINS NEARLY CLOUD-FREE THIS MORNING. THOUGH STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE COMMON JUST EAST OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUPPORT A FEW LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND EVENTS...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX... MCV WILL CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NRN TX INTO FAR SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO PULSE IN NATURE... WITH MOST LIKELY THREATS OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN ROCKIES... COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AS WELL UNDER WLY H5 WINDS NEAR 40 KT. HOWEVER...LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG / MAY ACT TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO SLGT AT 20Z. ...NEW ENGLAND... EXTENSIVE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION. LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND CLEARING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD OUT OF SERN CANADA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ..EVANS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 20:08:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 15:08:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406192008.i5JK8l205747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192006 SWODY1 SPC AC 192004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 25 WNW FCL 45 E FCL AKO 20 NW LAA CVS 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 55 NW SAD 20 E GNT 35 WNW 4SL CEZ U24 MHS 30 S ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW FCA 35 NE GTF 55 NE 4BQ HON 40 SSW SPW LWD 40 S SZL UNO DYR 40 NE SDF 30 ENE PIT 25 SSW CXY ILG ACY 25 ENE ISP 20 NNE BML 70 NNW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO AND N-CENTRAL/NERN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM STRONGLY POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH OVER ID/WA. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CO AND NERN NM...WHERE GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 4-6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER MOUNTAINS SHOULD EXTEND EWD TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. KINEMATICS FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL VEERING AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN NM INTO FAR W TX. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REACHING NEAR 30 F BY 22-23Z TIME FRAME. RELATED SUBCLOUD EVAPORATIONAL POTENTIAL WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. APPARENT MCV OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THERE. SEVERE THREAT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED AS FARTHER N...AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC SFC CONTRIBUTION TO CAPE. FARTHER N...ISOLATED TSTMS EVIDENT OVER CO/WY MOUNTAINS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE OVER SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE APPARENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR DEN. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFORMATION ACROSS CO FRONT RANGE AREA. BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STRONGER CAPPING FARTHER E OVER ERN CO AND NEB PANHANDLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK INTO KS. SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB AREA...HOWEVER...WHERE NERN RIM OF 30-40 KT LLJ WILL SUPPLY AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE. ASSOCIATED WAA REGIME WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE AFTER 20/06Z...BASED ON MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. OCCASIONAL HAIL OR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR. ...RED RIVER-ARKLATEX REGION TO W-CENTRAL TX... MCV IS QUITE PRONOUNCED IN VIS/IR/REFLECTIVITY LOOPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK AND N-CENTRAL TX AS OF THIS WRITING...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD SRN AR THROUGH EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG AND ABOVE QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO MAY FORM FARTHER W ALONG FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- NOW EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSES NEAR SEP-ABI-HOB LINE. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BEHIND ARKLATEX MCV SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE...AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE. ...NEW ENGLAND... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS MAINE/NH INVOF FRONTAL ZONE. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LIFT ZONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. ...WRN WY/ID/SWRN MT... WIDELY SCATTERED CB ALREADY EVIDENT IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THIS REGION...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 20/00Z. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGEST CELLS. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 06/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 01:08:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 20:08:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406200109.i5K193203835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200106 SWODY1 SPC AC 200104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30 SSE SAF 25 E ALS 45 SW COS 35 ENE PUB 30 NW LAA 55 N CAO 30 SSE CVS 4CR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 25 N TCS 35 E GNT 10 E DRO 40 NE 4BL U24 50 WNW ELY 25 NNW BIH 40 NE MER 40 W LOL 95 NNW WMC 35 W BKE 35 SE SLE 15 N ONP ...CONT... 65 NW FCA 20 NE LWT 40 ESE 4BQ 25 W PHP 55 W YKN 20 WNW BIE 20 SW SLN 45 SSE EHA 15 SE LBB 45 S MAF 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 55 WNW LFK 35 SSW PGO 50 N LIT GWO 40 WSW TCL 40 SSE ATL 20 S AVL 40 E HKY 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN NM INTO SERN CO... ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WY/NRN CO WITHIN MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WY INTO CO. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO SWD TO CENTRAL NM. MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NM/WRN TX TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN WY. GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS A 30 KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS FROM WRN TX TO WRN KS IN RESPONSE TO THE WY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING EWD ATOP COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT INTO WRN NEB/NWRN KS. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WWD MOVING MCV LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TX /30 ESE GDP/ WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN NM AND OVER FAR WEST TX. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 30-40 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 06:02:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 01:02:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406200603.i5K63P209788@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200601 SWODY1 SPC AC 200558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW IRK 45 NW SGF 45 ENE TUL 40 SSE PNC 15 SE GAG 40 SSW EHA 40 S LAA 25 E LAR 40 NNW DGW 50 SW PHP 55 W YKN 20 SW OMA 35 NE STJ 40 SW IRK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW 15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40 WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW RDU HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NERN STATES WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO ONTARIO AND NRN PLAINS. NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AT 00Z TO SRN ND AND ERN WY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS WRN/SWRN KS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH... BEFORE TRACKING EWD TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX IS PROGGED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING OK/TX PANHANDLES TO ERN OK BY 00Z. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING MAINLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REINFORCE THE COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN KS AND NEB...LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE RETURNING WARM FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD...WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING PORTIONS OF NEB BY MID AFTERNOON...AND AN AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN WY/ERN CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EWD ACROSS WRN NEB TO CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL KS/SRN NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW AND NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS TO SERN WY/WRN NEB...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NOCTURNAL AND QG STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REACHING WRN MO/SWRN IA BY 12Z MONDAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...SRN SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN... AN AXIS OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...COASTAL SC/GA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT OVERALL SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 06:02:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 01:02:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406200604.i5K64K210329@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200601 SWODY1 SPC AC 200558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW IRK 45 NW SGF 45 ENE TUL 40 SSE PNC 15 SE GAG 40 SSW EHA 40 S LAA 25 E LAR 40 NNW DGW 50 SW PHP 55 W YKN 20 SW OMA 35 NE STJ 40 SW IRK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW 15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40 WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW RDU HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MODERATE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NERN STATES WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO ONTARIO AND NRN PLAINS. NEARLY CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGH OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AT 00Z TO SRN ND AND ERN WY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS WRN/SWRN KS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH... BEFORE TRACKING EWD TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX IS PROGGED TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT...REACHING OK/TX PANHANDLES TO ERN OK BY 00Z. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING MAINLY E-W ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REINFORCE THE COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NRN KS AND NEB...LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE RETURNING WARM FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD...WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING PORTIONS OF NEB BY MID AFTERNOON...AND AN AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SERN WY/ERN CO TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND EWD ACROSS WRN NEB TO CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL KS/SRN NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW AND NWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS TO SERN WY/WRN NEB...WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. NOCTURNAL AND QG STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB TONIGHT... POTENTIALLY REACHING WRN MO/SWRN IA BY 12Z MONDAY. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ...SRN SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN... AN AXIS OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES... COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -20 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...COASTAL SC/GA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT OVERALL SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 12:50:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 07:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406201250.i5KCof210314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201248 SWODY1 SPC AC 201246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE FNB 30 SE OJC 40 ENE TUL 30 S END 65 NE AMA 45 W EHA 25 S LIC 35 N LAR 35 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 25 SSE ANW 20 SE OLU 35 NNE FNB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DUG 70 ESE SOW 15 SSW LVS 25 SE TAD 10 SE PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 25 ESE PDX 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 N GRB 25 E MSN 15 NW MDH 40 WNW POF 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 20 SSE 5I3 25 ESE PSK 15 SW RDU HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS AREA... ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH FEATURE CURRENTLY OVER NE AZ IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO ERN CO AND WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A LEE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TX PORTIONS OF FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST AREA WWD THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE TO LIFT NWD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER NWWD INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MCS MOVING SEWD INTO NW OK THIS MORNING IS BEING SUSTAINED BY 30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN VICINITY OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING AS DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON ITS SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. IN EITHER CASE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST UPSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO...WY...NEB AND KS.MOISTURE GRADIENT IN VICINITY OF THE TX FRONT REMAINS RATHER DIFFUSE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AS FAR N AS THE KS/OK BORDER. PRESENCE OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MAY DELAY NWD RETURN OF THIS MOISTURE UNTIL LATE TODAY. THE NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMMENCES. BY LATE AFTERNOON AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND WRN NEB. INITIAL STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BELOW 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT..BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH NEB/KS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD PERSIST INTO PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SW TX... OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN NM AND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW IN THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND GENERALLY MULTICELL IN CHARACTER. HOWEVER... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NRN ROCKIES AREA... SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VICINITY OF UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SWD THROUGH MT AND NRN ID. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 16:34:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 11:34:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406201635.i5KGZ8202605@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201633 SWODY1 SPC AC 201631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LNK 25 W TOP 40 NW BVO 30 WSW END 30 NW CDS 50 WSW AMA 35 SW CAO 35 N LAR 35 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 25 NW BUB 10 W LNK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W ANJ 35 S IMT 15 S CWA 15 W MSN 35 ESE MMO 35 S MTO 35 E UNO 45 ENE PBF 15 E UOX 30 WSW CSV 45 WNW TRI 40 S PSK 25 NNW SOP HSE ...CONT... 25 E DUG 65 NNW SVC 45 S LVS 15 NNW RTN 20 SW PUB 25 NNW MTJ 20 SSW ELY 50 S BKE 15 N PDX 15 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA.... ...ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE AREA... WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF E/SE CO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN KS AND ERN CO. MEANWHILE...AN MCS APPROACHING CENTRAL OK /THAT MOVED OVER SW KS LAST NIGHT/ WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A 25-30 KT LLJ AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FEED FROM THE SW. LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS N/NE CO...THAT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SPEED MAX MOVING EWD OVER NE UT/NW CO/SRN WY...WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SW NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO NW KS AND SLOW SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...AS WELL AS THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER RIDGES. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL CO THIS EVENING AND INTO W/NW KS BY EARLY TONIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ACROSS WRN KS BY EARLY TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE DO NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CO/KS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND 0-1 KM SRH MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS EVENING. ...WY AREA... A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MT/ID/ORE WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD WY BY THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A ZONE OF ASCENT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN ID/NE UT EWD ACROSS WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ...S GA/N FL AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MCV MOVING EWD OVER MS/AL THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALIGNED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV/S OF THE FRONT AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG OVER THE S GA/N FL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 20:07:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 15:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406202008.i5KK8R225070@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202005 SWODY1 SPC AC 202004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE HSI TOP TUL 25 NNE LTS CDS 30 N CVS 35 NW RTN 35 S CPR 35 NNE DGW 15 SE CDR 20 SW BBW 40 SE HSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW GLS 45 ENE CLL TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 35 NNW ABI 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 35 SW DMN 40 SSW GNT SAF 60 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 35 SW ELY OWY 55 NE BKE 30 NE CTB ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF DIK ABR 40 NNE BJI 25 NE AUW 15 WSW STL UNO 65 WSW MEM TUP 25 SSW HSV ATL 25 NE MCN 65 N AYS 35 S SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SERN WY/ERN CO/WRN KS/... PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS SERN CO AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO MOUNTAINS WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENING NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NERN CO AND SERN WY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AREA...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE CO PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. THOUGH THE LOWER 3 KM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG TURNING IN THE LOWEST KM MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE PALMER DIVIDE. REFERENCE WW 499. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH THE WRN KS BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT AS THE COMPLEX MOVES EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT. ...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN KS/OK EXTENDS FROM NEAR DHT/AMA SEWD INTO NWRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS NWRN AND POSSIBLY N CENTRAL OK WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ...EXTREME SRN GA/N FL AREA... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV MOVING INTO WRN AL WEST OF TCL. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS EXTREME SRN GA WWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MCV AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ...THE VERY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 6 KM SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHORT LIVED. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..IMY.. 06/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 00:59:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 19:59:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406210100.i5L10K201878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210058 SWODY1 SPC AC 210056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S OMA FLV 45 ENE TUL 10 NW OKC 35 NNE CDS 30 NNW AMA 15 NE TAD 25 W LIC 30 WSW BFF 50 E CDR 30 ESE BUB 45 S OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 30 E AUS 30 WNW TYR DAL 20 NNW MWL 15 N ABI 35 WNW DRT ...CONT... 35 W ELP 25 SSW ONM 15 S LVS 40 WSW RTN ALS 30 NW CDC 15 S ELY 20 S BYI 25 E S80 75 NW FCA ...CONT... 45 ENE HVR 45 NNW MLS 35 W P24 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 40 NE IWD 25 NE EAU 30 W LNR BRL 20 SW ELD 35 SSE GLH 30 W SEM 40 W ATL 40 SSE TYS 25 NE AVL CLT 40 SSW AGS 20 E SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN NEB...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO SERN KS. OTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARIES WERE LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...ONE OVER NRN OK AND A SECOND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX NNWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. AT 00Z...ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM SWRN SD SWD ACROSS ERN CO TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH SEVERAL OF THESE CLUSTERS SHOWING LINEAR STRUCTURE. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SERN CO...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER CANADIAN TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50+ KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP WITH ANY OF THE ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A SLY LLJ OVER WRN TX WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ONE OR MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S MOVING ESEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES/INSTABILITY GRADIENTS OVER NEB/KS AND NRN OK. AS THE MCS/S DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD TOWARD SERN NEB/ERN KS AND CENTRAL/NERN OK BY 12Z MONDAY. ...ERN TX EWD ALONG THE SRN GULF COAST STATES TO FL... EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TO FL IS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SEA BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 06:06:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 01:06:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406210606.i5L66o219085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210603 SWODY1 SPC AC 210601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PUB 50 WNW GCK 15 SSE CNK 20 NNW STJ 25 SE UIN 40 SW HUF 35 SSW OWB 45 E MKL UOX 45 SW HOT 25 NE DAL 20 W MWL 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW AMA 45 WNW RTN 25 WSW PUB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 60 ESE SOW 35 N ROW 40 NNE LVS 50 SW ALS PGA 20 WNW SGU 55 WNW MLF 35 SE MLD 25 ESE JAC 45 N CPR 40 ENE AIA YKN 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EPM 50 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTB 35 SSE GTF 25 NNW MQM 50 SW 27U 80 N BOI 25 NE ALW EPH 35 N DLS 60 NNE LMT 25 NE TVL 10 SE BIH 35 NNW NID 40 NNE BFL 20 E CEC 25 NNW OLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/NERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG NLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WRN CANADA WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SSEWD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS/S AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY 00Z. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH WILL TRACK SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN MO TO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES BY 00Z. WRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACK UP ALONG THE CO ROCKIES EARLY IN THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD CDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS SWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT /REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY MCS/ EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ...SRN PLAINS EWD TO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND OZARK REGION... ONE OR TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM SRN IA SWD TO THE OZARKS OF SRN MO/NRN AR. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE MCV/S LEFT OVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCS/S MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FROM KS/WRN MO AND SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KS/MO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THESE STATES...WITH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER OK. A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM TO THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS KS/MO INTO OK/NRN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD. A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ ACROSS CENTRAL TX NOSING INTO OK WILL SUPPORT AN MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS STORMS AND TRACK ACROSS OK TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ...PORTIONS OF WRN GREAT LAKES TO ERN IA/IL... A NARROW AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEWD ACROSS NERN IA/WI TO UPPER MI BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS UPPER MI AND INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER CENTRAL/SRN WI COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NERN IA BY 21-00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... MODELS INDICATE A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL ADVECT NNEWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO ERN WV/WRN VA. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AROUND OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOIST SLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN CO... AN AXIS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE WITHIN THE AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 12:49:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 07:49:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406211250.i5LCoC204506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211247 SWODY1 SPC AC 211245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MWL LBB 40 WNW RTN 25 SSE PUB 30 SE ICT 40 NW SGF 35 W STL 15 E SLO 40 SW OWB 30 ESE MKL 25 SE GLH 30 NNW TYR 15 W MWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 15 SW EPM 50 WNW 3B1 ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 60 ESE SOW 35 N ROW 40 NNE LVS 50 SW ALS PGA 20 WNW SGU 55 WNW MLF 35 SE MLD 25 ESE JAC 45 N CPR 40 ENE AIA YKN 75 E ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTB 35 SSE GTF 25 NNW MQM 50 SW 27U 80 N BOI 25 NE ALW EPH 35 N DLS 60 NNE LMT 25 NE TVL 10 SE BIH 35 NNW NID 40 NNE BFL 20 E CEC 25 NNW OLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN MT/WRN ND/ ROTATING AROUND CNTRL CANADIAN VORTEX. SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND SHEARING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A BROAD REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL MN SWWD INTO SERN CO/ WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NERN NM BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEYS... ELONGATED...MATURE MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING FROM S-CNTRL MO/N-CNTRL AR WWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK...GENERALLY MOVING ESEWD AT 20-30KTS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS OVER E-CNTRL OK EWD ACROSS NRN MS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A MOIST AIRMASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ EXISTS TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. THOUGH MCS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...REGENERATION OF VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR WITHIN REGION OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. THOUGH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING MCS HAS PUSHED WWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS...DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF 25-35KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. DIURNAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S MCS ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER..IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE WITH MCS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK/NRN TX OVERNIGHT. ...WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SRN WI WWD INTO CNTRL IA AND NRN/CNTRL MO. REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY MCV/VORTICITY CENTER OVER CNTRL IA. GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ON BACKSIDE OF E COAST ANTICYCLONE COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY AHEAD OF MCV OVER THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KTS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IF POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MT/ND SYSTEM SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF FRONT...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION. ...SERN STATES... 12Z JAX/CHS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ELIMINATE RELATIVELY WEAK CAP OBSERVED ON THESE SOUNDINGS...ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK E-W BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 16:54:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 11:54:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406211655.i5LGt8222554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211651 SWODY1 SPC AC 211650 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW SEP LBB 40 WNW RTN 15 E COS 40 E LAA 40 S DDC 55 NNE ADM 10 SSE FSM 30 W UNO 40 SW STL 15 E SLO 40 SW OWB 30 ESE MKL 25 SE GLH 20 NNW TYR 45 WNW SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW HVR 35 WSW LWT 10 WSW DLN 65 W 27U 20 NE LWS 35 WNW GEG 35 SSW 4OM 40 W EAT 20 WNW DLS 35 SE AST CLM ...CONT... 25 SW FHU 55 NNE SAD 30 NNW ROW 15 N LVS 60 SSW ALS 35 S U17 25 SSE CDC 30 N MLF 30 SW EVW 50 NW LND 45 N CPR 40 WSW MHN 20 SE YKN 75 E ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 ENE CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN ...CONT... 20 NW EPM 40 NW 3B1 ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP 65 SSE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD VORTEX CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA WILL KEEP STRONG NLY AND WLY FLOW FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS ALSO RESULTED IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN PLATEAU. ONLY CLEAR SURFACE FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD OVER NWRN IA AND SERN NEB INTO SWRN KS AND SERN CO. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS CENTRAL AR SWWD AND WWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX...NWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OK HAS BECOME RAIN-COOLED AS A RESULT OF EARLY MORNING MCS RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA. ...SRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... MODELS ADVANCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND AND MOVING SEWD FROM CO INTO S CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS OF TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK WHERE WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 135-145 KT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT AS UPPER GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS UPPER LOW OVER NRN MANITOBA MOVES SLOLY SWD. THIS PLACES TX PANHANDLE INTO OK IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONVECTION INTO SRN OK AND AR...BUT HEATING IS DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK. QUESTION IS WHEN INITIATION CAN OCCUR AS THE MODELS ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN CO/NERN NM BY 22/00Z AND OVER SWRN OK NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE FORECAST TO 2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...BUT ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO/OK/TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BECOMING ANOTHER MCS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND EXTREME NRN TX TONIGHT. ...SC AND PARTS OF NC... MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING EWD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... COLD FRONT/ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS IA INTO WI. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY ACROSS WI MAY REACH 1000 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AND WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 19:50:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 14:50:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406211951.i5LJp1208538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211948 SWODY1 SPC AC 211946 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW SEP LBB RTN 50 W PUB GCK P28 OKC FSM ARG POF 20 W PAH 50 WSW HOP 20 NNW TUP 25 SE GLH 20 NNW TYR 45 WNW SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 40 S SAD TCS 4CR SAF FMN PGA 20 NW SGU 70 NW P38 DPG OGD LND CPR 10 NW BFF MHN ANW MHE BKX STC 25 WNW DLH 75 E ELO ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR CXY 55 ESE LYH 40 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE AUG 50 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW HVR 35 WSW LWT LVM 10 NE DLN MSO 45 NNW 3TH 63S 4OM 30 SE BLI 15 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY.... BLOCKED UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. NEW DEEP CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALREADY PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS REGIME...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED BOUNDARY NOW CURVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL STEEP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. CAP APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH THAT WITH FURTHER HEATING...SCATTERED NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY 22/00Z. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET...LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN STRONGEST CELLS... AND RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ALONG GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOL. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL SUPPORTING MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS IN TRAILING CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH/WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 01:15:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 20:15:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406220116.i5M1GM231428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220113 SWODY1 SPC AC 220111 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0811 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW JCT 50 SSW LBB 15 ESE TCC 30 NW CAO 50 SSE EHA 35 ESE GAG 15 ENE PNC 50 NNW SGF 25 NNW HRO 55 S HRO 40 SSE MLC 30 NNE DAL 40 S SEP 30 NNW JCT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW MRF 20 SW CNM ROW 45 NE 4CR SAF 45 NE GUP 30 NNW FLG 15 NE NID 40 NNE MER 50 WNW TVL 55 SE ELY 15 ESE CNY 10 NW ASE 50 SSW DGW 10 E AIA 35 SW HLC SLN 25 S IRK 45 WSW RFD 30 ESE RHI 15 ENE MQT ...CONT... 30 NNW SYR 20 WSW PSB 15 ENE ROA 20 ENE ILM ...CONT... 40 SW GLS 60 NNE VCT 20 N COT 60 WSW COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUL 55 WNW 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS 25 N TUS 10 E SAD SVC 40 SE DMN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... ...EXTREME NERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION... LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SWWD TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS CO...AND A SECOND SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE SRN STREAM FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT 00Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM ERN UPPER MI SWWD TO NEAR STL TO THE NORTH CENTRAL OK/KS BORDER...AND WSWWD TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDED GENERALLY E-W TO NW ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO WRN TX/TX PANHANDLE...AND WERE PROVIDING THE FOCI FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO WRN TX. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARKS AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR NERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORM MERGERS PRODUCE SUFFICIENT COLD POOLS...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK OVERNIGHT AS A SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SWRN OK STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT SHOULD STILL AID IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SSE ACROSS OK AND SRN MO. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ATTM COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK TO NRN AR OVERNIGHT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT THAT TIME...SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO SERN STATES... A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02-03Z WITH AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL MS TO NWRN LA...MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA. ADDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST AS THESE STORMS MERGE OVER THE SAME LOCATION WITH A NWD BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. DESPITE SOME STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION (SPCSWOMCD) NUMBER 1370. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER MUCH OF GA INTO SC AND SWD ALONG MAINLY THE ERN FL PENINSULA. WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 05:53:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 00:53:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406220554.i5M5sM202397@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220552 SWODY1 SPC AC 220550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E HSE 25 W RDU 40 NW AND 40 NW BHM 25 SSE GLH 55 ESE SHV 35 NE LFK 20 ENE ACT 45 NNE MWL 35 N ADM 10 E FYV 15 S POF 10 NNE BWG 25 W HTS 10 ENE HLG 35 WSW BUF ...CONT... 40 NNW BML 10 WNW PSM 15 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX 25 S FLG 40 SSW GCN 45 NW IGM 45 E NID 15 W NID 20 NNW FAT 50 N SAC 45 S SVE RNO 65 N BIH 35 S TPH 25 ENE U17 25 ESE EGE 10 SE DEN 30 S LAA 15 NNW PNC 10 NW UNO 40 SSW SDF 10 S ZZV 20 NE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG 45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 45 E RIW 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 40 S LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 65 N LMT 20 N MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION/TN VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NOAM TODAY. ONE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY SWWD...AS A SECOND LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS MANITOBA. STRONG BAND OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW AROUND THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERIES OF THE LATTER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALBERTA SEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...AND EWD TO THE NERN STATES. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NRN STREAM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. THE STRONGEST...THOUGH DEAMPLIFYING LATER TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO NERN STATES. WEAKER SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TO UPPER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN SOMEWHAT WEAKER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN TIER STATES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES TODAY...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES SLIGHT RISK AREA. MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG WLY WIND FIELDS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WITH THE EWD EXTENT LIMITED BY THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET. ...ARKLATEX REGION TO THE TN VALLEY... COMBINATION OF MCV ASSOCIATED WITH MCS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OK/NRN TX MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE... SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN OK/NRN TX. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY IS ALREADY VERY MOIST...AND WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS MAY AFFECT SURFACE HEATING/SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. NONETHELESS... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EWD TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS REGION...AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX. DESPITE MODEST WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS FROM THE SRN HALF OF AR/NRN LA TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY...AS A SSWLY LLJ FEED A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THIS REGION. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ...SRN ROCKIES TO SWRN-SRN PORTIONS OF TX... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NM...AND SURGE SWD ACROSS SWRN TX...REACHING A LINE FROM DRT TO ELP BY 00Z. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM SRN/SWRN TX...WHILE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NM. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SWRN UT PER WV IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE TODAY AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UVVS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. FARTHER SE...25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR MULTI-CELL STORMS ACROSS SWRN-SRN TX AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS AREA. ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY... UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THIS AREA. SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROGGED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE TO SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 12:43:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 07:43:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406221244.i5MCiS228296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221242 SWODY1 SPC AC 221240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE WAL 30 NNW RIC 20 N CHO 15 SSW AOO 10 N BGM 30 SW PSF 30 SSW GON. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ACT 15 ESE JBR 45 NNE TUP 30 WNW CBM 15 SE HEZ 40 ENE LCH 25 WSW GLS 50 SE AUS 45 NNE ACT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG 45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 45 E RIW 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 60 ENE PHX 25 S FLG 40 SSW GCN 45 NW IGM 45 E NID 15 W NID 20 NNW FAT 50 N SAC 45 S SVE RNO 65 N BIH 35 S TPH 25 ENE U17 25 ESE EGE 10 SE DEN 30 S LAA 15 NNW PNC 10 NW UNO 40 SSW SDF 10 S ZZV 20 NE ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 65 N LMT 20 N MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING DEEP VORTEX WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD THROUGH CNTRL CANADA. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THIS VORTEX...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER: 1) CNTRL GREAT LAKES 2) WRN ONTARIO...AND 3) OVER SRN ALBERTA. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD OUT OF CNTRL CANADA AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES WWD ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME. ...DELVMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... LATEST IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IN PROGRESS FROM THE NRN APPALACHIANS EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD IMPULSE/UPPER JET STREAK OVER NRN OH COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EWD FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING... RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CNTRL GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. HERE SRN PERIPHERY OF THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL BE COLOCATED WITH NRN EXTENT OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F/...CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS UPSTATE NY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... TWO SEPARATE MCS/S ARE CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. NRN COMPLEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WITH LEADING EDGE FROM CNTRL AR SWWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. THE OTHER IS LOCATED OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH MCV BECOMING BETTER DEFINED N OF SAT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS LEADING EDGE OF REMNANT MCS COLD POOLS INTERACT WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. ...UPPER/MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY... ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF 20-25KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODERATELY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN ONTARIO AND SRN ALBERTA DISTURBANCES MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS ALONG COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 16:30:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 11:30:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406221630.i5MGUh212971@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221621 SWODY1 SPC AC 221619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ORF 45 E LYH 15 S SHD 15 SSE AOO 30 N IPT 20 WSW MSV 20 NE EWR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E ACT 40 SW HOP 35 SSW BNA 45 WSW CBM 30 W MCB 25 W LFT 25 SSW HOU 35 NNW PSX 55 E ACT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 15 E LMT 30 SSW MFR 25 ESE OTH 15 WNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PLN 45 WNW MKG 45 NNW DBQ 30 NNE SUX 15 SW LND 55 WNW IDA 55 SE S80 35 ENE LWS 40 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 40 ENE PHX 55 NE PHX 25 W PRC 20 ENE EED 60 E NID 40 N NID 35 WSW TVL 35 W RNO 30 NE RNO 15 WSW LOL 40 NNW ELY CDC 45 SSW BCE 45 NNE INW 30 ENE GUP 25 SE FMN 50 SSE MTJ 15 NE ASE DEN 45 SSE LHX 25 E DHT 35 WNW CSM 40 ESE OKC 15 SE UMN 45 ESE TBN 40 W SDF 15 SSE CMH 25 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PORTION SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN STATES INCLUDING DELMARV... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP/COLD UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH MANITOBA AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS AT HIGHER LATITUDES NORTH AMERICA. STRONG MID/UPPER WLY FLOW EXTENDS EWD TO S OF UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. 120KT POLAR JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. S OF 40N FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER WITH A COUPLE MCV'S REMAINING FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS ACTIVITY SRN PLAINS. STRONGER OF THE TWO LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TX WITH ANOTHER NRN AR. COLD FRONT FROM LE SWWD THRU SRN IND AND THEN ACROSS NRN TX WHERE IT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY. S AND E OF FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY...TROPICAL AIR MASS PREVAILS. ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY... TROPICAL AIR MASS TO S OF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...VERY LITTLE CIN AND LOW LCLS. WITH 15 TO LOCALLY 20KT OF SFC-1 KM SHEAR...PRIMARILY MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF SEWD PROPAGATING BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE SHEAR WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES. REF MCD 1378. ...NORTHEAST U.S... EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL GREATLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NY/NRN PA WHERE STRONG UPPER JET MAX WILL BE TRACKING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONG WLYS ACROSS SRN PA INTO DELMARVA...HEATING WILL BE GREATER AND AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL BECOME AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. WITH SFC TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F...MUCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG OR MORE WHICH COUPLED WITH THE 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. MODE EXPECTED TO BE MULTI-CELL GIVEN THE MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SINCE LAPSE RATES WILL BE 6C/KM OR LESS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY ANY SHORT LINES/BOWS THAT ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. REF MCD 1379. OTHER AREAS OF LESS THAN SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE ANYWHERE ELSE IN SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER. PULSE SEVERE WILL BE DOMINANT STORM MODE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CAPE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG...STRONG FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING AFTERNOON...ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SERN AZ FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WHICH STILL INCLUDES WRN NM. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THERE IS ENOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HIGH BASED STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE INVERTED VEE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 19:59:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 14:59:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406221959.i5MJxf219550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221956 SWODY1 SPC AC 221954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ORF LYH 50 ESE MGW 35 SSW IPT MSV POU 15 E JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW GGG 25 W ELD 15 NNW GLH 30 ENE MKL 10 SSW CKV 30 NE BNA 10 ESE CSV 25 W CHA TCL MEI 25 WNW GPT 30 ESE LFT BPT 15 E HOU LFK 15 WSW GGG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE OSC MCW YKN 55 E CDR 50 NNW RIW MQM 55 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW 4OM RDM 15 E LMT 30 SSW MFR 35 NE PDX 20 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 40 ENE PHX 55 NE PHX 25 W PRC EED 30 NNE EDW 50 NNE BFL 50 N FAT 35 WNW TVL 40 ESE RBL 30 SE MHS 65 SSW 4LW 75 WNW WMC 55 SE BAM 50 NE DRA SGU PGA 60 NE INW 20 NNW GUP FMN DRO GUC 10 W COS 35 SSW LIC LAA 40 S LAA 25 E DHT 35 WNW CSM 40 ESE OKC 15 SE UMN 45 ESE TBN SDF FKL 30 NE BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACRES PARTS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... SOUTH AND EAST OF BROAD...DEEP MID/UPPER CIRCULATION...WHICH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. ...TEXAS THRU TN VLY/GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS BEST REFLECTED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...WHICH CURRENTLY CURVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...IN PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD.... IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. SEVERAL WEAK COLD POOLS ARE ALREADY APPARENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...EMBEDDED WITHIN 20 TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FAIRLY LARGE BUT WEAK COLD POOL HAS ALSO FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...POSSIBLY PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALSO HEATED/DESTABILIZED IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN/ NORTHERN VIRGINIA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...LIKELY WILL POSE INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITH SURFACE HEATING...BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL AIR MASS ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL CANADIAN CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALONG/NORTH OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET AXIS ...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WHICH BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FLOW REGIME IS VERY WEAK...BUT SLOW SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 01:04:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 20:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406230105.i5N14x227534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230102 SWODY1 SPC AC 230100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 40 S PHX 35 SSE PRC PRC IGM 60 NW NID TVL SVE MFR SEA 35 ENE BLI 50 NW 4OM EAT 4LW WMC EKO ELY PGA INW 40 NE SOW GUP 4SL GUC 50 ESE ASE COS LHX AMA 55 WNW ABI SJT ACT PRX POF CGI SDF MGW CXY IPT ALB 65 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ANJ TVC VOK OTG ANW 35 S BFF CPR IDA 60 W 27U 55 NE 63S. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER NRN MANITOBA...AND UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN NWWD ACROSS BC/YUKON...DOMINATE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF CONUS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD FROM PRESENTLY ANALYZED POSITION OVER NWRN/CENTRAL MN...SRN SD...NRN WY. MEANWHILE...WAVY AND OUTFLOW-MODIFIED FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM SERN QUE SFC LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN NY...PA...THEN ROUGHLY DOWN OH VALLEY AND ACROSS AR...INTO S-CENTRAL TX. SRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT -- GENERALLY W OF MS RIVER -- WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AMIDST MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MIDDLE PORTION WILL MOVE SEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND DECELERATE. REST OF FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...SERN CONUS... TWO PRIMARY BROKEN BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS REGION -- 1. ARCHING FROM SERN TN/NERN AL ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN GA TO WRN SC...AND ALSO... 2. FROM SERN AR ACROSS ERN LA AND SRN MS. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AWAY FROM BELT OF ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN CYCLONE. MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND LINGERS WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN PIEDMONT REGION AND WRN TN/NRN MS...WHERE ENVIRONMENT AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS -- ESPECIALLY WHERE STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS CAN BRIEFLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. 00Z RAOBS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN ENVIRONMENTS UNALTERED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS...WITH NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE THREAT AFTER ABOUT 6Z. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 06:04:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 01:04:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406230605.i5N65C204542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230601 SWODY1 SPC AC 230559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE TOL PIA LWD DSM LSE 35 NNE APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ECG EWN FLO 40 NW CAE GSP HKY LYH WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ERI 25 WSW CLE 20 W HUF 25 WSW STL CNK 30 WSW EAR 30 NNW IML 25 SSW SNY LIC 35 NNE LAA GCK 25 SSW GAG 40 NNW CDS 45 NNE BGS 40 SSW ABI 15 SSE BWD 35 NE ACT 45 SSW PRX 15 NE PGO 40 SE HRO 25 SSE PAH 20 NW SDF 15 NNE UNI 20 WSW DUJ SYR 45 W GFL 10 WSW ALB 20 SE ABE 35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 15 SSW BHB 35 NNW BML ...CONT... 40 NE HVR 60 NNW MLS 55 SW DIK 15 NNE Y22 30 S BIS 45 ENE BIS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 25 SE EED 45 ESE LAS 45 SSE SGU 35 NE GCN 50 NNE INW 15 W GUP 50 SSE FMN 35 E GUC 45 NW LAR 25 SSW LND 50 S BPI 25 SW PUC 35 SE U24 55 SSE ELY 50 SW ELY 35 NE U31 25 W U31 20 NE BIH 35 WSW BIH 35 NE MER 60 NW TVL 65 E 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 40 WSW MHS 20 ESE CEC 45 SSE OTH 35 SSE EUG 15 E PDX 30 SE OLM 30 ENE SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CAROLINAS...SERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN IA TO LOWER MI... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY REGION AND NRN ONT. ASSOCIATED BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. UPSTREAM LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER GREAT BASIN...PACIFIC NW STATES AND WRN CANADA. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW OVER N-CENTRAL PORTION OF MANITOBA/SASK BORDER -- SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN DURING AFTERNOON. IN SRN STREAM...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN MEX -- IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS S TX. MEANWHILE WEAKER DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS. AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED FROM SRN MN SWWD TO SWRN WY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS WI/MI/IA AND NRN IL...AS WELL AS ADJOINING PORTIONS LS/LM/LH...THROUGH PERIOD. APCH OF SRN STREAM PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO AID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NC/SERN VA DURING DAY...WITH LOW MOVING ENEWD TOWARD HAMPTON ROADS REGION. ...VA/NC.... TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND/OR BANDS SHOULD FORM THROUGH AFTERNOON AND MOVE ENEWD TOWARD COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEAR FRONT AND LOW...BUT CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH AMIDST SFC HEATING TO ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF CAROLINAS. ISOLATED HAIL OF MARGINAL SEVERITY IS POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM SFC LOW ENEWD ALONG FRONT. SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS CORRIDOR NEAR CENTRAL/ERN VA/NC BORDER...WHERE 40-50 KT SFC-6 KM SHEARS ARE POSSIBLE. PRIND POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE LIMITED BY COMBINATION OF 1. INTERFERENCE FROM SCATTERED-NUMEROUS CONVECTION IN VICINITY AND 2. WEAK LOW LEVEL ABSOLUTE FLOW -- GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS BELOW 800 MB -- LIMITING 0-1 AND 0-3 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE. STILL...A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES RE POSSIBLE AMIDST AMBIENT REGIME OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC...MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON S OF FRONT...GIVEN STRONG SFC HEATING AND UPPER 60S/70S F SFC DEW POINTS. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD GA AND FL AS MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS...AND WITH SWWD EXTEND ACROSS MS DELTA REGION...THOUGH ALMOST ANY TSTM IN THIS VERY MOIST AND DIURNALLY HEATED REGIME MAY SPAWN WET MICROBURSTS. ...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING -- INVOF COLD FRONT. SOME CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTER OR LINE WITH BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR ABOUT EQUALLY PROBABLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCE ON BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DUSK. COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY WLY COMPONENT OF PREFRONTAL FLOW AND RESULTING REDUCTION IN CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH IN PRESENCE OF DIABATIC HEATING SUCH THAT FRONTAL LIFT CAN STILL INITIATE TSTMS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FCST BUT WITH UP TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AROUND 00Z ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT -- FARTHER NW ACROSS ERN ND/NRN MN AREA. SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL IN THIS AREA BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER OVER THIS REGION THAN FARTHER SE...LIMITING INTENSITY/DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL COOLING...RELATED TO NW-FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER DARK...SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTENSIFIES OVER SRN MN...IA AND PERHAPS NERN NEB. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY SMALL ELEVATED MUCAPES OF UNDER 700 J/KG...HOWEVER STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL. ...MT... STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONNECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH A FEW CELLS PRODUCING HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 200-500 J/KG RANGE OVER ROCKIES TO AROUND 500-800 K/KG ON HIGH PLAINS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR WRN PORTION OF SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE SWWD THROUGH AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 12:53:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 07:53:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406231254.i5NCsF201789@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231252 SWODY1 SPC AC 231250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DTW 20 NE BMI 25 SSE BRL 15 WNW OTM 15 NNE ALO 20 S LSE 30 S CWA 40 N APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HSE 10 N OAJ CAE 45 SSE AND 10 SSE AVL 15 SSW ROA 20 SE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 40 N MCB 20 SE TUP 10 NW BHM 30 ESE 0A8 25 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ERI 25 WSW CLE 20 W HUF 25 WSW STL 15 SW CNK 30 WSW EAR 30 NNW IML 25 SSW SNY 25 NW LIC 35 NNE LAA 25 WSW DDC 25 SSW GAG 40 NNW CDS 45 NNE BGS 40 SSW ABI 15 SSE BWD 35 NE ACT 45 SSW PRX 25 NE PGO 55 NNE LIT 30 SSW PAH 20 NW SDF 10 NNE UNI 10 NNW AOO 20 ENE ACY ...CONT... 15 SSW BHB 35 NNW BML ...CONT... 80 NW GGW 15 NNE GDV 30 WSW DIK 15 NNE Y22 30 S BIS 45 ENE BIS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 70 SE YUM 20 W GBN 75 SW PRC 30 SE EED 45 ESE LAS 45 SSE SGU 35 NE GCN 50 NNE INW 15 W GUP 50 SSE FMN 35 E GUC 45 NW LAR 25 SSW LND 50 S BPI 25 SW PUC 35 SE U24 55 SSE ELY 50 WSW ELY 70 E 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 40 WSW MHS 20 ESE CEC 45 SSE OTH 35 SSE EUG 15 E PDX 30 SE OLM 30 ENE SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF VA/NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP...MID AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND SRN MANITOBA. AN ADDITIONAL LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXIST THIS MORNING WHICH MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF SEQUENTIAL CP AIRMASS SURGES OUT OF CANADA. THE SRN MOST FRONT HAS BECOME ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...SUGGESTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM CURRENT POSITION OF SRN VA/NRN NC SWWD INTO SERN TX. WITH APPROACH OF MIDDLE TN DISTURBANCE...A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST ALONG FRONT BY AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF NC. INTERMEDIATE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL LOWER MI WWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL INTO SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FINALLY...AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN MANITOBA. ...UPPER MIDWEST... THOUGH 12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF DAKOTAS/MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME FROM CNTRL/SRN WI SWWD INTO ERN IA/NRN IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MOREOVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING TO 150-250 M2/S2. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EWD/NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO LOWER MI. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. ...VA/NC... MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W. THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE S OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE W LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AHEAD OF MIDDLE TN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AXIS OF 35-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /PER PLAN VIEW VWP PLOT/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED HAIL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OF SURFACE LOW TRACK. ...CNTRL GULF COAST... 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MLCAPE OF NEARLY 3000 J/KG AND LITTLE CIN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES INTENSIFYING LINE SEGMENTS OVER S-CNTRL LA MOVING EWD INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON THE LIX AND 12Z JAN SOUNDINGS SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH ON LEADING EDGE OF DEVELOPING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORM CLUSTER. ...ERN ND INTO NRN MN... SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT AS STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN MANITOBA TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FRONT. VERY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OF 3.5-4.5KFT SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...CNTRL/ERN MT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BOTH ON SURFACE FRONT MOVING S INTO AREA AS WELL AS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THOUGH... RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...PROMINENT MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE 500MB WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 15:40:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 10:40:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406231541.i5NFfD216143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231536 SWODY1 SPC AC 231534 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HSE 10 N OAJ CAE 45 SSE AND 10 SSE AVL 15 SSW ROA 20 SE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE 7R4 40 N MCB 20 SE TUP 10 NW BHM 30 ESE 0A8 25 WSW PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 15 NNE MMO 35 N BRL 45 SSW ALO 15 E MCW 25 N OTG 45 N ABR 35 SSW GFK 25 WNW INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 70 SW PRC IGM 50 W P38 20 S 4LW 35 SE LMT 25 SW LMT 50 NNE MFR 40 SE PDX 25 E SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 NW GGW 15 NNE GDV 30 WSW DIK 40 NNE Y22 20 S BIS 45 NNE BIS 65 NE MOT ...CONT... 15 N ROC 25 NW FKL 15 W HUF 15 N MKC 45 SE LBF 15 SSE SNY 20 NNW LIC 40 NE LAA 10 WNW DDC 60 SE LBB 40 NE SJT 25 ESE SEP 20 SSW MLC 35 SE FYV 35 SW LEX 10 ENE CRW 30 E HGR 40 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 80 NNW 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E U24 20 NNW FLG 25 NW SOW 35 SSW GNT 35 ESE ASE 35 E RWL 25 ENE BPI 35 E SLC 40 E U24. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES... STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SEWD AND THEN EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. STRONG SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED 70+ KT MID LEVEL JET IS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS SYSTEM SEWD ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. THOUGH SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL/DRY FOR LATE JUNE...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMPENSATE AND PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE NOW EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN INTO SERN ND. COMBINATION OF INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRONG CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING OVER ERN ND/NWRN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT AND SBCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE IGNORED INTO CENTRAL MN ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS EWD ALONG FRONT AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE ESE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH EWD EXTENT OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE BECOMING MORE LIMITED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SURFACE FRONT DRAPED FROM THE ERN U.P. OF MI INTO ERN IA WILL LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND SUPERCELLS BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE OVER ERN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI IN REGION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ...VA INTO THE CAROLINAS... LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION AS EVIDENCED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT BY 24/00Z. IN ADDITION...A RATHER WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE LIMITED LAPSE RATES. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL THEREFORE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FROM STRONG/MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIED TO HEATING AND DIMINISH AFTER DARK. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WITH 20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING MODEST FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN INFLUENCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH ENSUING SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASING THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 20:07:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:07:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406232008.i5NK8P222125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232005 SWODY1 SPC AC 232003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 50 SW SBN BRL CID ALO 10 ENE SPW ATY 55 N ATY 45 S BJI 35 S DLH IWD 45 E MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CRE SAV AYS ABY DHN 40 NW PNS 10 W GPT 30 SSW LUL 25 E 0A8 GAD 45 ENE HSV CHA CHA AND 10 SSW CLT 45 E DAN RIC 40 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE YUM 10 NNW BLH 35 NNW DAG 60 WNW BIH 10 N TVL RBL MFR 40 SE PDX 25 E SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR MLS REJ PHP 9V9 YKN 35 N ABR FAR GFK 70 NNE DVL ...CONT... 15 NE EFK ART BUF MFD IND MTO IRK CNK RSL 10 WNW DDC CDS MAF 65 N DRT JCT BWD MKO FYV JBR LEX CRW MGW HGR 35 ESE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BHB 40 N BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PUC PGA 50 NNW INW INW 50 ENE SOW GUP CEZ MTJ ASE CAG RWL 35 SSE RKS PUC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES... STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD CENTRAL CANADIAN CLOSED LOW. MODELS INDICATE THIS JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING /FROM 70 TO 90 KT AT 500 MB/...AS IT TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC JET IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 80F TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS FRONT...AND...THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PERHAPS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE 24/02-03Z TIME FRAME WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TO THE SOUTH/EAST...LACK OF MORE ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM MAY DEVELOP WITH APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME WEAKER FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD ALONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. MODELS SUGGEST THIS JET WILL INTENSIFY BY EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BEFORE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IN SOURCE REGION FOR LIFTED PARCELS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ...GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH VERY MOIST/TROPICAL TYPE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST. BELT OF 30 KT MEAN FLOW ACCELERATING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RISK OF STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...BUT VERTICAL VORTICITY MAY ALREADY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACORNS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...MODELS STILL APPEAR TO SUGGEST PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW PROPAGATION SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF AN ISOLATED MICRO BURST. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 00:40:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 19:40:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406240041.i5O0fJ217343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240038 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE MKG 25 NE JVL 25 WSW LNR VOK 40 E AUW 45 NNW MBL 20 SE TVC 20 WSW HTL 50 NE MKG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CTB 30 E 3HT 40 E WRL 40 WNW COD 30 ENE 3DU 60 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DTW 50 S SBN 25 WNW BRL 30 SSW ALO 35 SSE EAU 30 ESE RHI 10 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E SAV 35 NW SAV 20 SSE AND 40 SSW CLT 40 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BUF 15 WNW CAK 20 WNW IND 45 E STJ 30 NNW MHK 40 WSW SNY 35 SSW LHX 10 SSW LBL 60 W SJT 65 SSW SJT 35 E SEP 40 SSW PRX 30 S HOT 10 NW UOX 25 SSW CSV 25 NE ROA 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 20 SE DAB 25 WNW FMY ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25 ENE IGM 60 NNW P38 55 SE NFL 10 NNW BIH 50 ENE MER 10 E SVE 70 ENE 4LW 10 WSW ALW 40 E EPH 30 N EPH 20 W EAT 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 30 WSW 4BQ 45 WNW RAP 20 W MHE 25 WSW MKT 30 SE DLH 35 ENE ELO. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL AND SERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SRN GRETA LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES IN MT/WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NC AND CNTRL AND ERN SC... ...SCNTRL WI TO SRN LWR MI... A CORRIDOR OF HIGH-END WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN WI AS A FAST MOVING AND INCREASINGLY STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST AT 50-60KT. ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY POWERFUL MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS NOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM MN. CONVECTION INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ON THE COLD FRONT NOW APPEAR TO BE TAPPING INTO AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE CORN BELT. MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... SUSTAINED ASCENT ALONG WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT LYING ACROSS SRN WI...AND STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 60-90KT WILL SUSTAIN SUPERCELL HAIL/ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. FAST MOVING CELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS LM AND INTO LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE... LIFT ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW PROBABILITY WIND THREAT TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT FROM NEB SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER. ...MT/WY... MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW ON/BEHIND FRONTAL SURGE AND STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES/UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TOPPED BY STRONGER NWLY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. ...SERN TX... WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL AHEAD OF DEEPER REMNANT SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH TIME AS AREAS AWAY FROM DEEPER ASCENT SLOWLY STABILIZE. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO. ...SOUTHEAST... SEVERAL WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING AND SUPERIMPOSED WITH 25-30KT MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY WAS BUILDING INTO AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED STRONG HEATING DURING THE DAY AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS NOW MOVING INTO NC COASTAL PLAIN...ACROSS THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS ARC OF STORMS DEVELOPING EAST INTO PORTIONS OF W/CNTRL SC. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. ..CARBIN.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 06:08:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 01:08:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406240609.i5O69F200858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240606 SWODY1 SPC AC 240604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0104 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW EFK 35 NNW GFL 30 ESE BFD 30 W CMH 45 NW STL 40 NNE CNU 25 ENE GAG 45 NE AMA 40 NE TCC 40 WNW TCC RTN 25 NE TAD 25 S GLD 20 NNW HLC 35 SW EAR 20 NNW BIE 15 W LWD 10 WNW MMO 10 SSW SBN 15 SE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 NE GBN 45 WNW PHX 65 ENE BLH 35 S IGM 30 E LAS 40 NW P38 60 WSW ELY 20 SW U31 65 N BIH 25 S BIH 40 SW BIH 60 WNW BIH 30 SW TVL 50 NNW LOL 45 SSE 4LW 25 E LMT 50 W MHS 20 E 4BK 25 SW EUG 10 WSW PDX 20 NW OLM UIL ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 45 NE BIL 40 NNE 81V 15 WNW PHP 20 NNE MHE 30 SSW RST 30 SW MKG 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 NW ESC 25 NNE RHI 60 SSE DLH 25 WNW HIB 20 WNW INL ...CONT... HUL 15 ESE LCI 10 SE PSF 20 NNW AVP 15 W PSB 10 SW HLG 35 ENE LUK 30 ESE BMG 25 NE MVN 45 SW BLV 30 ESE SGF 35 NW FYV 30 SW TUL 20 ENE OKC 20 S CSM 30 NW CDS 15 E PVW 10 ESE LBB 50 NE BGS 30 SSE ABI 20 ENE BWD 35 WSW DUA 10 ENE MLC 35 SE HRO 15 ENE PAH 30 SSE SDF 20 S CRW 20 S SHD 40 E RIC 30 SSW WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT 25 S GNT 45 W 4SL FMN 45 NNW GUP 45 ENE INW 35 NE SOW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A NARROW ZONE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO WRN NY... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN NORTH AMERICA OMEGA BLOCK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DEEP POLAR VORTEX MAKING UP THE DOWNSTREAM/ERN FLANK OF THE BLOCK AND CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER SRN CANADA CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NERN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE VORTEX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER SCALE LOW TO THE NORTH OF MN BY EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WRN/TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS RESULT IN FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF CO AND NERN NM THROUGH LATE TODAY WHILE BOUNDARY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AND BACKED INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES FROM WY TO MT. IN THE SOUTH...A WEAK SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS TX WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW AND TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A BELT OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OF 25-35KT IS FCST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON THE SERN FLANK OF A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS TXK REGION. ...MIDWEST TO NY... LINEAR MCS NOW CROSSING LOWER MI IS FCST TO LIFT NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH MORNING AS AIRMASS FROM IND/OH TO WRN NY BECOMES MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE COLD FRONT WILL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY...MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET COUPLED WITH 40-50KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID STORM PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FAST MOVING STORMS AND ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ATOP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FROM NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT BUT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN AFTER DARK. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... STRONG HEATING ACROSS KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPLY MIXED PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS NERN KS LIKELY BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER OVER WRN KS WILL FAVOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH A PROPENSITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH/CAPE FARTHER EAST WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS REGION WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. ...ROCKIES... PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOPING INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND PREDOMINANCE OF DIURNAL/MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND/OR WIND. ...TX GULF COAST ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY... WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT LINKED TO DEEP CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ACT ON VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS COULD ACHIEVE SOMEWHAT GREATER ORGANIZATION AS BAND OF STRONGER FLOW SPREADS NEWD FROM THE TX GULF COAST ACROSS LA/SRN MS. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BUT ANY STORMS MOVING INTO AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 12:50:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 07:50:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406241250.i5OCoe224615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241248 SWODY1 SPC AC 241246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 25 NW LEB 20 SE BFD 25 WNW CMH 50 S UIN 25 SSE EMP 15 E GAG 50 NE AMA 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 10 WSW RTN 30 NNE TAD 20 S HSI 30 NNW BRL 20 ESE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW TUS 10 NE GBN 45 WNW PHX 65 ENE BLH 35 S IGM 30 E LAS 40 NW P38 60 WSW ELY 20 SW U31 65 N BIH 25 S BIH 40 SW BIH 60 WNW BIH 30 SW TVL 50 NNW LOL 45 SSE 4LW 25 E LMT 50 W MHS 20 E 4BK 25 SW EUG 10 WSW PDX 20 NW OLM UIL ...CONT... 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 45 NE BIL 40 NNE 81V 15 WNW PHP 20 NNE MHE 30 SSW RST 30 SW MKG 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 50 E MQT 30 NW ESC 25 NNE RHI 45 SE DLH 25 WNW HIB 20 WNW INL ...CONT... HUL 15 N BGR 10 SE PSF 15 N AVP 20 E CMH 30 S HUF 10 E BLV 40 E SGF 40 E HRO 15 SE POF 35 E MDH 45 NE SDF 20 S CRW 20 ENE CHO 15 NW NHK WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT 25 S GNT 40 SSE FMN 10 WSW CEZ 65 S 4BL 55 NE INW 35 NE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BWD 50 N ADM 50 ENE OKC 25 ESE CSM 30 NW CDS 10 E PVW 10 ESE LBB 55 NE BGS 25 NW BWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO NWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS INTENSE VORTICITY MAX OVER SERN ONTARIO EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER WRN QUEBEC. A BROAD BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES...WITH EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...PRIOR TO LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN QUEBEC TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SERN QUEBEC SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT OCCLUDES OVER WRN QUEBEC LATER TODAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND INTO CNTRL KS AT THIS TIME. ...NWRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL AID IN NEWD DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS INTO NY AND PORTIONS OF NWRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG. FARTHER SW OVER THE OH VALLEY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REGION OF STRONG ASCENT RAPIDLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS / PER VWP/PROFILER NETWORKS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS/. LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL OH VALLEY NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. WHILE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER QUEBEC...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE MAY LOCALLY BACK SURFACE WINDS AS FAR S AS NRN UPSTATE NY INTO NRN VT. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS KS INTO SERN CO AND NWRN OK. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY ERODE CAP TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION LIKELY BEING THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND INHERENT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SWD/SWWD-PROPAGATING MCS WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS...NWRN OK AND NERN NM THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PACIFIC NW... ENHANCED UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LARGELY DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT RANGE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES TODAY. ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY. ISOLATED STRONG WINDS/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR W AS ERN WA/NERN ORE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES PER 12Z SPOKANE SOUNDING. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSERVED OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS NEWD...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THOUGH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...12Z LCH SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 3KM AGL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 16:34:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 11:34:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406241634.i5OGYU203400@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241632 SWODY1 SPC AC 241630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 25 NW LEB 30 NW IPT 15 NNW ZZV 15 SE STL 50 SSE OJC 40 ESE P28 60 SSW GAG 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 25 NW RTN 25 W LHX 30 WNW HLC 35 W PIA 50 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BPT 30 SSW ESF 30 W JAN 35 NNE MEI 30 WSW SEM 30 WSW PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SOW 65 SW GNT 25 S GNT 15 NE DRO 30 W MTJ 25 NW 4BL 55 NE INW 35 NE SOW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 45 ESE CTB 40 NE SHR 35 SE RAP 55 WSW YKN 20 E ALO 25 SSE MKE 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE APN 40 WNW TVC 30 SW IMT 60 WSW IWD 25 SSE BJI 40 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MWL 50 ESE OKC 45 W TUL 25 ESE END 20 N CSM 10 ESE CDS 70 NW ABI 45 WNW MWL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CAR 20 NNW PWM 30 SSW ABE 25 WNW HGR 45 E LUK 55 SE LUK 30 SE HTS 40 ENE SSU 20 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 25 ENE EED 60 WSW ELY 45 SSE 4LW 25 NNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 30 NE CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF LA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MORNING MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS SEVERE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO EARLIER OUTLOOKS...THOUGH ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST APPEARS WARRANTED. PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS TIED TO INTENSE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE NRN U.S./GREAT LAKES TODAY...ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... MOST INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN CANADA TODAY...THOUGH SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL IL/NRN IND/NRN OH AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP WITH H5 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AOB -12C. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AID IN DEVELOPING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT BY 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF NRN IN/NRN OH AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN MI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED SEWD ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. MEAN WINDS/SHEAR VECTORS WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY AND ACT TO INHIBIT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER IT APPEARS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL WARRANT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTHEAST...STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE LOWER LAKES AND PROGRESS EWD INTO WRN NY AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE OVER THIS AREA WITH SBCAPES AOB 1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND ADDED INFLUENCE FROM TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN CANADA SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO SMALL LINES. HOWEVER... STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FAIL TO ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER LINE. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... APPEARS COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT LOW FAVOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/...DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SWD MOVING DOWNBURST CLUSTER SPREADING GENERALLY SWD ACROSS SWRN KS/SERN CO INTO THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES AND POSSIBLY NWRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN GREAT LAKES ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NERN KS... POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE LIMITED ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 20-30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...UPPER TX/LA COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS AND SPREAD ENEWD. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1404 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION./ ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED FROM SERN CO NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL AGAIN PROVIDE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM STRONGER STORMS LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 20:05:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 15:05:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406242005.i5OK5Q207670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242000 SWODY1 SPC AC 241959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML ALB 40 NNE CXY ZZV ALN ICT 40 ESE P28 60 SSW GAG 15 ENE TCC 45 E LVS 25 NW RTN 50 NNW LAA 10 WSW GLD 25 NW CNK STJ IRK BMI FWA 10 ESE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 7R4 30 NW MCB 40 WSW TCL 15 SSE ANB 15 SW LGC TOI 30 NE CEW 25 SSW CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 25 ENE EED DRA 10 WNW TVL MHS MFR PDX 35 NNE CLM ...CONT... 65 NW HVR HVR REJ MHN LBF OTM SBN MTC ...CONT... 40 NNE CAR 20 NNW PWM 30 SSW ABE 25 WNW HGR LUK MVN TBN 30 ESE CNU 20 N CSM CDS 70 NNW ABI 40 WNW MWL ADM 20 NW MKO 25 SSE SGF POF CKV LOZ SHD 10 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE APN 40 WNW TVC 30 SW IMT 60 WSW IWD 25 SSE BJI 40 W RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NARROW CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES.... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA...MUCH AS INDICATED BY LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN QUEBEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...FORCING ALONG FRONT SURGING INTO THE LEE OF THE LOWER LAKES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR BROKEN NARROW SQUALL LINE. SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR FRONT/LAKE BREEZES FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN OHIO. DEW POINTS ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING TO NEAR 60F IN A NARROW BAND...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER 80S...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG BEFORE 25/00Z. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARILY THREATS APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... RATHER SHARP SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ABOVE INVERSION LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WITH BROKEN NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT ...FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR DOWNBURSTS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED IN THE 24/21-23Z TIME FRAME...AND VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST TIL AROUND 25/02Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES... INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN CONFLUENT LOW/MID -LEVEL FLOW REGIME...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW FROM IDAHO INTO THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES. GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL GULF STATES... IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF BROAD TROUGH IN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS SUPPORTING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MOIST TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION...BELT OF MODERATE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID EVENING HOURS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 06/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 00:57:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 19:57:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406250057.i5P0vv209300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250055 SWODY1 SPC AC 250053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 35 WNW ALB 25 NNW AVP 15 NNW CXY LUK 35 NNW EVV 40 SW SZL 25 NW CNU 10 SSW ICT 40 N CSM 25 NNE CDS 25 NNW PVW 20 N CVS 45 SE LVS 35 NNE LVS 45 SE ALS 50 WSW COS 10 W COS 25 NNE TAD 20 E EHA 25 SW DDC 35 N RSL 35 ENE CNK 15 E STJ 45 ENE UIN 50 E TOL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FLG SOW 25 S GNT 40 WNW 4SL CEZ 25 SSW 4BL 25 ENE BCE 40 SSE CDC FLG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 60 E BLH 15 NW EED 50 W LAS 40 NNW NID 25 NNE FAT 45 S TVL 20 NNW TVL 60 NNW SVE 30 E MFR 30 ESE PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE FCA 15 NNE LVM 10 S 81V 45 WNW AKO 40 E LIC 30 NNE STJ 50 SSE CGX 25 NE TOL ...CONT... 20 N HUL 15 NNW PWM 15 N BAF 25 S ABE 45 E MGW 30 S PKB 15 WSW CRW 35 WSW BKW PSK 25 S LYH 50 NE RWI 25 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE BWD 30 NNE FTW 25 E ADM 45 NW MLC 45 NW FYV 25 SE UMN 45 W ARG 15 NNW ARG 25 ESE POF 30 SSE CGI 20 NNE CGI 50 NW CGI 55 SE VIH 25 WSW TBN 40 NNW JLN PNC 30 SW END 20 SE CSM 40 ESE CDS 75 S CDS 55 WNW ABI 40 WSW ABI 40 W BWD 45 SE BWD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...OH/PA/NY... SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SAGS ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE OH VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS (65KT AT 500MB BASED ON BUF RAOB) ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC MAY PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS FRONTAL SQUALL LINE PROGRESSES ACROSS THESE REGIONS OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... FARTHER WEST ALONG THE WELL DEFINED THERMAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STORMS AROUND THE TX/OK PNHDLS...PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL STORMS EXIST FROM KS INTO NRN MO. WHILE SOME OF THE PNHDL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL SURGE INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER. LIFT ALONG FRONT AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL COULD SUSTAIN SEVERE STORM HAZARDS INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN OK. POST FRONTAL STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST... POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST...TN VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST/FL THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NEWD OUT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...A FEW STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ...ROCKIES/WEST... ABUNDANT MOUNTAIN STORMS NOTED FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WAS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OCCURRING IN WEAK SHEAR WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A BELT OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...FROM SERN ID TO NERN NM. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND SEVERE WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BELT. GREATEST PROSPECT FOR MORE SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FROM SERN CO INTO NM THIS EVENING AS COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW/FRONTAL SURGE... SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY IS MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 05:32:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 00:32:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406250532.i5P5WU207623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250529 SWODY1 SPC AC 250528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S P07 40 SE ONM 20 W ABQ 55 SW ALS GUC 25 WNW EGE 45 SE RKS 40 SE LND 30 ENE RIW 15 W CPR 30 NNE LAR 50 WSW SNY 20 SSE AKO 45 SE LIC 55 SSE LHX 25 SW DHT 20 W PVW 55 NNE BGS 40 W ABI 35 ESE SJT 40 NW HDO 65 WSW COT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CRE 20 NW FLO 45 ENE MCN 35 E CSG 20 NE MGM 25 S BHM 25 SSE HSV 20 NNW TYS 35 NW TRI 25 NE PKB 15 NW PSB 20 SW BGM 15 SSW ALB 10 NNE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 20 N PHX 45 SSW PRC 55 SSE IGM 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH 20 NW TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 65 NNE MFR 40 W RDM 45 NW RDM 45 S DLS 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 40 SSE EPH 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 40 SE 81V 35 NE ANW 30 W OFK 30 SW LNK 25 ESE MHK 20 E ICT 25 NNW END 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 30 S ROC 20 S SYR 35 N GFL 25 NW MWN 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N PLN 40 NE ESC 35 E MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM AL/GA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST FROM WEST TX TO WY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NORTH AMERICA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING WITHIN THE ERN SECTOR OF THE BLOCK...FROM CNTRL CANADA...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...TO THE NORTHEAST. PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP VORTEX CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ALIGNED WITH MEAN FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WLYS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IMPULSE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN VA ACROSS ERN PA AND NRN NJ DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM ID TO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ...SOUTH/SRN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC... DESPITE MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...A BELT OF STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD NEWD ATOP A VERY MOIST AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM AL/GA AREA EARLY...TO NC/VA AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EAST. SEVERAL BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS SURFACE LOW EVOLVES ACROSS ERN VA DURING THE EVENING. COINCIDENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO AID STORM INITIATION WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM WV PNHDL TO ERN PA AND NRN NJ. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW/SRH... A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. ...SERN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND... AN AXIS OF PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE REACHING AT LEAST 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY FROM SERN NY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EITHER SPLITTING SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES... COMPOSITE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE BACKED WELL INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NM NWWD ACROSS CO AND WY. ONCE AGAIN...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ERUPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTENSIFY AS GREATER DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN MOIST/FRONTAL AXIS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUSTAIN/ENHANCE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH/FL... WEAKLY CAPPED TROPICAL AIRMASS AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TSTMS. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST ACROSS SRN FL WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG HEATING. NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL ARE LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE FRONTS ACROSS FL WHILE A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES... MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BENEATH MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM ID INTO NRN UT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 13:01:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 08:01:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251302.i5PD2p221939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251259 SWODY1 SPC AC 251257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG GSB SOP GSO CHO HGR CXY MSV BAF PVD 20 ESE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 25 NW RUT 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N TVC 55 ENE GRB 25 NW GRB 40 ENE AUW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 45 NW RDM 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NC PIEDMONT NEWD TO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES WILL REMAIN STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICES CENTERED OVER SERN HUDSON BAY/NWRN QUE REGION...AND OVER NERN PACIFIC AS PART OF OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS A VERY STABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND AS SUCH SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD. SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO ORBIT HUDSON BAY VORTEX...IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. BROAD/WEAK BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX. EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MS -- SHOULD STRETCH ITS VORTICITY FIELD AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...AMIDST CONFLUENT FLOW. AT SFC...OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN NY...WRN PA AND OH VALLEY IS FCST TO SAG SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH PERIOD. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ALONG THIS FRONT OVER TIDEWATER AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY -- POSSIBLY IN FORM OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND BAROCLINIC ATTACHMENT OF WEAK PREFRONTAL LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN VA. ...NERN CONUS... MOST MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAIN OF SMALL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN N OF SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR JUST S/SE OF FRONT -- AND NEAR SRN RIM OF STRONGER BELT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. EXPECT FAVORABLE INSOLATION DURING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON -- AFTER STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS ERODE WHERE NOW PRESENT...AND AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER TN VALLEY AREA. ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...DECREASING WITH NWD/NEWD EXTENT. KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N-E OF SFC LOW. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 35-45 KT MOST AREAS. ...FL... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY -- WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS THEN DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SEASONALLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA -- 7-8 DEG C/KM IN LOW-MIDLEVELS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES APCHG 4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEARS WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND UNUSUAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH ENOUGH WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT HIGH TERRAIN FROM W TX TO NRN ROCKIES...MAINLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER TERRAIN IS MOST STRONGLY HEATED. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF IDEAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY OVER NRN ROCKIES INVOF WRN MT AND ID. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SRN NM TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS ID/WRN MT. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER MOST OF THIS SWATH...GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER RIDGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER WY TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL AND WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 13:01:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 08:01:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251303.i5PD3v222370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251259 SWODY1 SPC AC 251257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG GSB SOP GSO CHO HGR CXY MSV BAF PVD 20 ESE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 25 NW RUT 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 N TVC 55 ENE GRB 25 NW GRB 40 ENE AUW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 30 S IGM 20 NE LAS 30 SW P38 65 NW P38 45 NE TPH 30 WSW TPH 35 ESE BIH 25 S BIH 65 WNW BIH TVL 30 ESE SVE 70 WNW WMC 35 E 4LW 35 NW 4LW 25 NW LMT 30 NE MFR 45 NW RDM 40 WSW PDT 30 NW ALW 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NC PIEDMONT NEWD TO SWRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES WILL REMAIN STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICES CENTERED OVER SERN HUDSON BAY/NWRN QUE REGION...AND OVER NERN PACIFIC AS PART OF OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS A VERY STABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND AS SUCH SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD. SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FCST TO ORBIT HUDSON BAY VORTEX...IN BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. BROAD/WEAK BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN TX. EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MS -- SHOULD STRETCH ITS VORTICITY FIELD AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...AMIDST CONFLUENT FLOW. AT SFC...OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN NY...WRN PA AND OH VALLEY IS FCST TO SAG SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH PERIOD. SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ALONG THIS FRONT OVER TIDEWATER AREA THROUGHOUT TODAY -- POSSIBLY IN FORM OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND BAROCLINIC ATTACHMENT OF WEAK PREFRONTAL LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN VA. ...NERN CONUS... MOST MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TRAIN OF SMALL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES SHOULD REMAIN N OF SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR JUST S/SE OF FRONT -- AND NEAR SRN RIM OF STRONGER BELT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW -- TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. EXPECT FAVORABLE INSOLATION DURING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON -- AFTER STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS ERODE WHERE NOW PRESENT...AND AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NOW OVER TN VALLEY AREA. ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S TO LOW 70S F THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...DECREASING WITH NWD/NEWD EXTENT. KINEMATIC PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N-E OF SFC LOW. DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT ABOUT 35-45 KT MOST AREAS. ...FL... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY -- WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS THEN DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SEASONALLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA -- 7-8 DEG C/KM IN LOW-MIDLEVELS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F TO CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES APCHG 4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SHEARS WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND UNUSUAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH ENOUGH WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT HIGH TERRAIN FROM W TX TO NRN ROCKIES...MAINLY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHER TERRAIN IS MOST STRONGLY HEATED. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY SPOTTY AREAS OF IDEAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED -- MAINLY OVER NRN ROCKIES INVOF WRN MT AND ID. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG OVER SRN NM TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS ID/WRN MT. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK OVER MOST OF THIS SWATH...GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO MID-UPPER RIDGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER WY TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...WITH HAIL AND WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE. ..EDWARDS/JEWELL.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 16:29:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 11:29:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251629.i5PGTog28718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251627 SWODY1 SPC AC 251625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HSE 30 SW CAE 30 N AHN 30 SSE TYS PSK 10 W HGR 40 SE IPT 25 SSW ALB 25 NE PSF 15 ENE BAF 10 E ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 45 ESE PHX 20 N PHX 45 SSW PRC 55 SSE IGM 25 ENE LAS 40 WNW P38 60 NE TPH 45 NW WMC 55 NE 4LW 45 WSW BNO 45 SW PDT 25 NW ALW 30 SW EPH 45 ESE SEA 20 NNE SEA 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 WSW HVR 35 NE LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 SSE HSI 35 SE RSL 35 ESE P28 40 ESE END 40 WSW TUL 20 ESE TUL 35 SSE UMN 25 WNW UNO 30 NW MDH 20 SE LAF 10 SSW ERI 15 SE BUF 20 N SYR 25 ESE SLK 30 W BML 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 ENE TVC 25 E MTW 25 NW OSH 40 ENE AUW 10 NW IMT 30 ENE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SW NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS... FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE/WEAK LAPSE RATES IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF VA...WITH SUBSEQUENT CLOUDS FURTHER INHIBITING HEATING WITHIN THIS PLUME TODAY. HOWEVER NORTH OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...HEATING WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE DELMARVA NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND /SHOULD LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER SERN NY...CT AND WRN MA/. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S INTO NRN MD/SERN PA...WITH FURTHER HEATING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG NRN EDGE OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...SUGGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN PA/SRN NY BY THE MID AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE WEAK LAPSE RATES. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL VA...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MODEST FROM ERN PA INTO NEW ENGLAND AS AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE AREAS SOUTH ARE OVERSPREAD BY 40 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NRN VA/MD BY THE MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WEAK SURFACE WAVE REMAINS IN PLACE. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND AN INCREASED RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TIED TO INSTABILITY...WITH SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW STABILIZING PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SECTIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SRN STREAM WAVES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT TODAY. HERE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN BELT OF 40-45 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES. ...FL... UNSEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL BOOST CAPES INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY TODAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING. THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...DEGREE OF HEATING /DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE MID AFTERNOON/ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SUPPORT AREAS OR CLUSTERS OF RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM MICROBURSTS...WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIA/EYW/XMR INDICATING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RATHER DRY MID LEVELS...PROVIDING FAVORABLE VERTICAL THETA-E PLOTS FOR ENHANCED DOWNBURSTS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED A BIT TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR MUCH INSTABILITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RATHER MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT /H5 WINDS FROM 20-30 KT/. EXPECT A FEW CLUSTERS OR AREAS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL COVERAGE/SEVERITY APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL FOR SLIGHT RISK OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA ATTM AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 19:58:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 14:58:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406251958.i5PJwwg25541@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251956 SWODY1 SPC AC 251954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CTY GNV 50 SSE JAX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE EWN 30 SW FLO 25 SW CAE 25 WSW AND 20 SE AVL 35 E HKY 35 SSW ROA 20 E SSU 40 S EKN 30 SE PSB 25 S ALB 15 SW EEN 25 NE ORH 15 ENE BDL JFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 20 W HDO 10 NNE SAT AUS 55 NNW VCT 35 WSW NIR 45 SSW ALI 20 WNW MFE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 50 NE GTF 15 SSW LWT 20 NE BIL 15 NW GCC 55 SE 81V 40 SSW PHP 35 NE ANW 35 ENE BUB 30 S HSI 45 N DDC 35 SSW LBL 20 ESE AMA 55 SSE CDS 35 WNW MLC 25 E MKO 30 SW HRO 15 NE UNO MDH 10 SW MIE 10 SSW ERI 15 SE BUF 20 N SYR 25 ESE SLK 30 W BML 15 N HUL ...CONT... 60 NNE APN 15 ENE TVC 25 E MTW 25 NW OSH 40 ENE AUW 10 NW IMT 30 ENE MQT ...CONT... 45 SSW TUS 65 SW SOW 55 ESE PRC 15 SSW PRC 40 SE IGM 40 ENE LAS 40 WNW P38 55 NNE TPH 45 NW WMC 65 ENE 4LW 35 NW BNO 35 NW PDT 30 SSE YKM 50 ESE SEA 40 E SEA 60 NE SEA 65 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF S TX... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC REGION... TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER NJ/PA/VA RIDGE TOPS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM WRN MA INTO CNTRL PA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSING NWD INTO THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. RESULTANT MLCAPES WERE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. LIMITING FACTORS TO WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY 18Z STERLING RAOB. GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO REMAINS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER AND INCREASE AS UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE UPPER OH VLY SWINGS EWD. GIVEN INCREASING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE MODEST WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING...TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. SLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SERN NEW ENGLAND. ...SERN VA AND THE CAROLINAS... PERSISTENT SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER OVER SERN VA WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 21Z. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THIS CLUSTER EXTENDS WWD INTO NRN NC. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO...THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...RESULTING IN WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR. ...FL... BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW...WILL LIKELY COLLIDE AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MORNING RAOBS SHOW MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 10C AND GIVEN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS SHOULD RESULT. ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. ...S TX... AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS S TX...BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THE RIO GRANDE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS WEST OF SAN ANTONIO APPEAR TO BE GENERATING A COLD POOL. THIS OUTFLOW WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO PARTS OF S TX/THERMAL RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DESPITE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR...A SMALL AREA OF S TX MAY EXPERIENCE PULSE SEVERE TSTMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. NONETHELESS...FAVORED NWLY UPPER FLOW REGIME AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO STRONGER TSTM CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING. MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. ..RACY.. 06/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 00:56:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 19:56:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406260056.i5Q0umg01156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260054 SWODY1 SPC AC 260052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MFE 35 S CRP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MLB 10 WSW FMY ...CONT... 20 S MOB 55 S SEM 25 NE DHN 50 SSW AGS 15 W CAE 15 ESE CLT 20 SE GSO 20 ENE RDU 25 NNE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FHU 35 S PRC 40 NNE LAS 60 N DRA 15 NNE TPH 40 NE BIH 65 ESE BIH 40 N NID 30 NW NID 45 E FAT 55 S TVL 35 WNW TVL 45 WNW RNO 15 NNE RNO 10 WNW NFL 25 ESE LOL 30 WSW BNO 60 SSW PDT 20 SE EAT 50 E BLI ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 85 SSW GGW 15 NE SHR 40 SSE 81V 50 NW VTN 25 NNE ANW 55 NNE BUB 35 N GRI 45 SSW EAR 55 S HLC 40 N GAG 30 NE CSM 15 SW OKC 30 SSE MKO 35 SSW HRO 25 SSW PAH 15 WSW SDF 25 SW HLG 25 SE PSB 30 N AVP 15 E MPV 30 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SOUTH TX... ...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST... A WAVE TRAIN OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A SERIES OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN TX...ENEWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST/WRN FL PNHDL...AND NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WAS NOTED WITH THE ARC OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND COUPLED WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KT PER AREA VWP DATA...SEVERE WIND/BRIEF TORNADO HAZARDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS ACROSS NRN GA. DIVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WAS CONTINUING TO PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. BROKEN LINE OF CELLS MOVING INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN SC/SERN NC WILL POSE GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. OVER TX...WIDESPREAD MULTICELL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF INTENSE STORMS. ONE CLUSTER WAS NORTH OF I10 AND BETWEEN I35 AND I45...THE OTHER CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SERN TX GULF COAST. LIMITED SHEAR AND WEAK BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN BROAD UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIRMASS IS OVERTURNED AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION INCREASES. GREATEST CHANCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL REPORT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX. ...NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC... CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS ALSO EFFECTIVELY UTILIZED MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS NEAR WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER LOWER DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. WHILE MOST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY WIND/HAIL HAZARD WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. ...ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND/OR WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS OVER A VERY LARGE AREA OF THE WEST FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS IN PAST DAYS...THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION IS STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNDOWN. OVER SERN WY/NERN CO...GREATER SHEAR AND INCREASING HIGH PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUSTAIN AN MCS...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR HAIL...INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY LONGER-LIVED SYSTEM MAY BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM WHERE MODEST LOW LEVEL AND POSTFRONTAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY FUEL A SMALL MCS DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE TX PNHDL. ..CARBIN.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 05:58:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 00:58:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406260558.i5Q5wIg23138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260556 SWODY1 SPC AC 260554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 25 ENE MSO 55 SSW 3DU 20 WNW 27U 80 NNE BOI 25 ESE BKE 30 ESE PDT 50 NNW ALW 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 40 WSW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 15 NW TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL 15 SSW RNO 15 NW LOL 65 E 4LW 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK 20 SSE DLH 30 NW LSE 30 WSW OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB 15 SSW EMP 10 NE BVO 20 E FSM 45 SSW JBR 25 ESE MKL 35 NW CSV 30 NE TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 NNW PSF 25 NE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK WILL AGAIN BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW OF MODEST INTENSITY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. ANOTHER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY DIGGING SWD OVER ALBERTA AND ON THE ERN FLANK OF OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS...WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NEWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA/NWRN WA TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES. THE ALBERTA SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADS INLAND OVER ERN WA/NERN ORE. IN THE SOUTH...WEAK/RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE TN VALLEY WWD TO SRN OK/NRN TX...AND THEN W/NWWD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FL. A BELT OF STRONGER SWLY/WLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN BROAD TROUGH OVER TX AND ERN GULF/FL UPPER RIDGE. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS FCST TO LIFT ACROSS ERN TX THROUGH TODAY. ...INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES... MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SHEAR. TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MAY BE GREATER THAN PAST FEW DAYS GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. POCKETS OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS BUT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVORING BOTH MICROBURST WINDS AND HAIL. ...GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY/FL... MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS ERN TX WILL LIKELY PROMOTE/MAINTAIN NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY/S ACTIVITY. LASTLY...STRONG INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZES WILL LEAD TO VIGOROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL. ALMOST ALL OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FL STORMS...WILL OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL BANDS MAY EVOLVE TO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS. OVERALL...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO FRONT RANGE... OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES REMAINS SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25KT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL DOMINATE. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AGAIN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INTENSIFYING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IN THE FORM UPSLOPE FLOW AND LEE TROUGH WILL COEXIST WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN CO AND NERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS IN THIS REGION MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND PRODUCE A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS. OTHERWISE...BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 12:50:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 07:50:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261250.i5QCohg16846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261247 SWODY1 SPC AC 261245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 15 NNW HLN 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP BVO 10 ESE FSM MKL TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 SW PSF 30 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN WA...NRN ID...NERN ORE...WRN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY STABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM...WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER NWRN NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC. ANCHORING THIS BLOCK IS STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER NWRN CANADA...WITH RIDGE SSEWD ACROSS ID TO NWRN MEX. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVER S-CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER AND OFFSHORE WA COAST. SASK/ALTA TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE SWD TOWAD NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE REGION...WHILE BROAD/WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM TIDEWATER REGION WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NC...UT WILL ACT AS BOTH FOCUS AND EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND FOR SUNTROPICAL/GULF AIR MASS AND GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER DIXIE. ...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME AGGREGATING INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR BANDS -- ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BOTH OVER DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN OF ROCKIES...AND IN REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG ERN FLANK OF MTNS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL. A FEW NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER BASINS/VALLEYS AND RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST THERMAL FORCING AND VERTICAL STRETCHING OF BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE GIVEN EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS RELATED TO RECENT PRECIP. INSABILITY ALOFT -- ALREADY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ON WRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH APCHG NRN MT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- I.E. 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM -- AND SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST...ENOUGH COVERAGE OF COVNECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...GULF COAST STATES... CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE W-CENTRAL LA COAST MAY PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR TWO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOTU AFTERNOONH AND EVENING...INITIALLY INVOF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVEREGNCE AND STORM SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION EWD OVER LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS JUXTAPOSED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT NE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX...SFC DW POINTS 70S F...AND FAVORABE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...HWOEVER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE LIKELY...PRECLUDING OUTLOOK OF WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ...FL... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNONO INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS...AUGMETNED LOCALLY BY INTERACTIONS OF OUTFLOW AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGIGN WET MICROBURSTS. GIVEN WEAK AMBIENT FLOW WITH SLY LOW-MIDLEVEL COMPONENT...BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD YIELD CONVECTION TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY INTERSECT OVER SOME PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL FL. MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED TBW RAOB. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 12:54:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 07:54:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261255.i5QCt1g18314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261252 SWODY1 SPC AC 261251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 15 NNW HLN 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 20 SW 4OM 40 NNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 40 SE YKM 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP BVO 10 ESE FSM MKL TRI 10 S DCA 20 NNE TTN 15 SW PSF 30 ENE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN WA...NRN ID...NERN ORE...WRN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY STABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM...WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER NWRN NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC. ANCHORING THIS BLOCK IS STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER NWRN CANADA...WITH RIDGE SSEWD ACROSS ID TO NWRN MEX. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ATTM ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVER S-CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER AND OFFSHORE WA COAST. SASK/ALTA TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE SWD TOWARD NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TURN SEWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC GYRE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE REGION...WHILE BROAD/WEAK SRN STREAM TROUGH DRIFTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM TIDEWATER REGION WSWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NC...BUT WILL ACT AS BOTH FOCUS AND EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND FOR SUBTROPICAL/GULF AIR MASS AND GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER DIXIE. ...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME AGGREGATING INTO ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR BANDS -- ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE BOTH OVER DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN OF ROCKIES...AND IN REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG ERN FLANK OF MTNS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL. A FEW NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER BASINS/VALLEYS AND RELATIVELY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGEST THERMAL FORCING AND VERTICAL STRETCHING OF BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE GIVEN EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE EFFECTS RELATED TO RECENT PRECIP. INSTABILITY ALOFT -- ALREADY FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- MAY BE ENHANCED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ON WRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH APCHG NRN MT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES -- I.E. 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM -- AND SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES UP TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR ARE FCST...ENOUGH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IS EXPECTED TODAY TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. ...GULF COAST STATES... CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE W-CENTRAL LA COAST MAY PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS NEXT HOUR OR TWO...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INITIALLY INVOF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY. MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ALONG OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVERGENCE AND STORM SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE ACROSS ARKLATEX REGION EWD OVER LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS JUXTAPOSED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT NE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX...SFC DEW POINTS 70S F...AND FAVORABLE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE LIKELY...PRECLUDING OUTLOOK OF WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ...FL... SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON INVOF SEA BREEZE FRONTS...AUGMENTED LOCALLY BY INTERACTIONS OF OUTFLOW AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICRO BURSTS. GIVEN WEAK AMBIENT FLOW WITH SLY LOW-MIDLEVEL COMPONENT...BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD YIELD CONVECTION TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES MAY INTERSECT OVER SOME PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL FL. MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BASED ON MODIFIED BBW RAOB. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 16:36:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 11:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261636.i5QGavg21806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261634 SWODY1 SPC AC 261632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 40 NE MSO 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 65 NW 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE RTN 15 W COS 10 ESE LAR 40 WNW BFF 20 SSE SNY 25 W GCK 10 S LBL 30 E DHT 30 SE RTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 25 NE CTY 30 E PFN 30 NNW PFN 20 N DHN 60 SSE MCN 15 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 10 NNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 TPH BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 20 NE DLS 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP 15 W JLN 25 S SGF 30 S PAH 15 NW TRI 15 ESE DCA 10 SSW PHL 10 SSE AVP 30 SW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN FL AND SRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERMOUNTAIN PAC NW... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN CO AND ERN WY THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF MID 50SF SURFACE DEW POINTS. THOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...IT WILL REMAIN NWLY AND ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY FORM BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN CO/FAR WRN KS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME RATHER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY FORMING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY DRIFTS SEWD. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE THREAT QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. ...PAC NW INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOW BE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. APPEARS SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NNEWD ACROSS WA LATER TODAY...AND INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO ERN WA AND PARTS OF ID. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OTX REMAINED FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS SUPPORTS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN INTO N-CENTRAL WA. GIVEN FURTHER HEATING...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE AND LATER STORMS INTO THE MID EVENING. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GA/SRN SC COAST... STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN GA TODAY...WHERE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF OLD SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W OVER SOUTH GA. 12Z SOUNDING FROM JAX INDICATES SOME DRYING ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY STORM ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SERN AL...WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY FURTHER INCREASE AND RIDE ENEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON. 25-30 KT OF WSWLY FLOW AT 3-6 KM / EVIDENT ON VWPS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL / SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA. ...ERN TX... UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...WITH CLEARING/DRY SLOT SUPPORTING STRONG DIURNAL HEATING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER MOIST AND DRY SLOT SHOULD THEREFORE FILL IN WITH CONVECTION QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED UNDER -10C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WV WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND ISOLATED. ..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 19:42:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 14:42:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406261942.i5QJgIg12653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261937 SWODY1 SPC AC 261935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW FCA 40 NE MSO 25 W BTM 27U 80 NNE BOI BKE 30 ESE PDT EPH 65 NW 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W GCK 40 SSE LBL 20 SE DHT 45 WNW TCC 30 N LVS 35 SW PUB 20 WSW COS 15 W CYS 40 WNW BFF 20 SSE SNY 15 W GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE JAX 30 NNE CTY 35 N AQQ 15 SSE PNS 30 SW MOB 35 NW MOB 55 SE MEI 10 SW MGM 60 SSE MCN 40 WSW CHS 15 S CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S FHU 35 WNW SOW SGU 70 WNW P38 30 S TPH 45 S BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 NNE MER 35 WSW TVL RNO LOL 20 NE DLS 40 ESE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 80 N GFK DLH 30 NW LSE OTM 50 NE FNB 35 WSW FNB EMP 15 W JLN 25 S SGF 30 S PAH 15 NW TRI 15 ESE DCA 10 SSW PHL 10 SSE AVP 30 SW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO THE SERN STATES... ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... RIVERTON VWP AND MEDICINE BOW PROFILER DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CNTRL WY. SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CO AND THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS 30-40 KTS IN THE 3-4KM RANGE. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS MOVING ACROSS CO/SERN WY...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BRIEF TSTM ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MAINLY MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED AND SINCE MEAN FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NWLY WITH TIME...A FEW LINE SEGMENTS MAY SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE MORNING SPEED MAX THAT EJECTED FROM THE BASE OF PAC BASIN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WITH LI/S AROUND MINUS 3C EXTENDING FROM NERN WA INTO ERN ORE AND ID. THOUGH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS...NEXT DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY APPROACHING WRN ORE AND WILL TRANSLATE NEWD ATOP INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SERN STATES... SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM COMPLEX HAS BEEN MOVING ENEWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA AND WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE COAST BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND BRUNSWICK. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. OTHER TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS SERN LA AND MAY AFFECT AREAS OF SRN AL THROUGH EVENING. ...PARTS OF TX/SRN OK... UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CNTRL TX. MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PERIPHERY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS NRN TX. THE ENTIRE REGION RESIDES IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAIN IMPACTS OF THE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 04:52:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 23:52:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406270452.i5R4qYK11856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270449 SWODY1 SPC AC 270448 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE GDP 35 N ELP 15 WNW ONM 50 SSE ALS 30 ENE ALS 35 SW 4FC 40 NNW 4FC 30 S LAR 20 SSE CYS 40 S IML 55 SE GLD 25 SW GCK 35 SE DHT 40 SSE CVS 25 SSE INK 50 SSE GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE FCA 50 SSE GTF 50 SE BIL 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 15 WSW 9V9 40 NW HON 55 ENE ABR 10 NNW AXN CWA 35 S MBL 25 NW AZO 35 WSW FWA 25 N UIN 35 ENE SZL 20 NNW SGF 40 ESE HRO 45 SW LOZ 15 NNE TRI 10 E ECG ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 W SAD 45 SSW GCN 25 WSW CDC 35 S ELY 20 S U31 60 NW BIH 50 E SCK 55 SE RBL 10 SE MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EPM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW OVER TX IS SHEARED ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. IN THE WEST...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY MONDAY. DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST OF WHERE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS MAY DEVELOP. WHILE MOST FOCUSED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EJECTING SRN STREAM IMPULSE ACROSS TX...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY. STRONGEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... SITUATION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AND CO INTO WRN KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS APPEARS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. AFTER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLEARS THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL BE HEATED BY STRONG SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. AS IN PAST DAYS...ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/LEE TROUGHING...AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT REMAIN POORLY DEFINED. MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM LOW LEVEL S/SELY FLOW TOPPED BY 20-25KT N/NWLY WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ACQUIRE GREATER ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY. WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. ...GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THESE AREAS IS SIMILAR TO SRN ROCKIES WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FCST. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLLAPSING PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS. ...SOUTH... BELT OF STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ALIGNED WITH RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF EJECTING TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. RICH MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD FUEL A FEW STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS WHICH MAY FURTHER ORGANIZE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING LINES AS IN PAST DAYS. MESOSCALE FEATURES YET TO FORM MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO TARGET HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF FL. ...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST... OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS KS...AND WEAK COLD FRONT SPREADING ACROSS NEB/IA/IL...WILL BE PREFERRED LOCATIONS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION ACROSS NEB/KS AREAS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO POCKETS OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR WHILE WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER IA/IL. OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR A FEW HAIL AND WIND EVENTS BUT ANTICIPATED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/GUYER.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 12:58:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 07:58:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406271258.i5RCwZK09210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271256 SWODY1 SPC AC 271254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE GDP 35 N ELP 35 NNE ONM 45 NNW LVS 30 WNW TAD 35 SW 4FC 40 NNW 4FC 30 S LAR CYS 25 SSW SNY 40 WNW GLD 15 E LAA 10 SE CAO 35 SSE CVS INK 50 SSE GDP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 50 NNE TUS 45 SSW GCN 25 WSW CDC 35 S ELY 20 S U31 60 NW BIH 50 E SCK 55 SE RBL MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 NNE FCA 50 SSE GTF 60 ENE DGW 40 WSW VTN 9V9 55 ENE ABR 55 SW IWD 30 SSE IMT HTL ARB 45 WSW FWA 20 NNE UIN 40 SE IRK VIH 35 SSW UNO 10 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW EPM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CO/NM AND FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... RATHER STABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONES CENTERED OVER WRN QUE AND BC COAST...WRN CANADA ANTICYCLONE...AND MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THAT HIGH SSEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA INTO NWRN MEX. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD OVER SD/SRN MN AND IA BY EVENING...THEN EXTEND FROM SERN WI TO NWRN MO BY END OF PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER SRN SD -- IS FCST TO MOVE SWD/SEWD ACROSS IA/NEB...REACHING LM...NWRN IL...CENTRAL MO AND NWRN OK BY 28/12Z. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW ANALYZED FROM SWRN KS LOW ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THEN SEWD OVER WRN AR. MEANWHILE...ERN PORTION OF LATTER FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER FROM CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS NRN AL/MS INTO AR. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY -- FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER AREAS OF ADJACENT PLAINS RIDGES. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FEW CLUSTERS OR BANDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...WHAT WINDS THERE ARE WILL POSSESS PREDOMINANT ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. RESULTANT ASCENT OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ONTO DIABATICALLY HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD OVERCOME CIN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AND LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THOUGH SMALL 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 20-30 KT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH INTO EVENING BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS. ...CENTRAL LOW PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS...PERHAPS REACHING WRN MO AND/OR NWRN OK. BROAD AREA OF NON-SEVERE TSTMS OBSERVED ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...PRIMARILY N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. AS AIR MASS NEAR FRONT DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WILL BECOME MORE SFC-BASED...WITH 60S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. ETA...SPECTRAL AND RUC MODELS ALL SHIFT/EVOLVE CONVECTIVE PRECIP SWD AND EWD ACROSS MORE OF KS TODAY...THOUGH WITH SOME VARIATION IN DETAILS. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATED MCV OVER SWRN KS...WHICH MAY DRIFT EWD TODAY TOWARD THIS AREA AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN S OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW BELT AROUND CANADIAN LOW. AS SUCH...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SMALL...HOWEVER A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...PARTICULARLY INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL RISK OUTLOOK. ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERIOR NW... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY OVER HEATED HIGHER TERRAIN -- WITH SOME CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY EVENING. ELEVATED MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG - OBSERVED IN 12Z OTX RAOB - SHOULD BECOME SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AS SFC HEATING AND AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS REACHING SFC WITH MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. ...GULF COAST STATES... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF PERIOD...PRESENTLY OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS SE TX BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SWATH FROM CENTRAL TX TO GA AND FL. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...DIURNAL HEATING AND 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IN MANY AREAS. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF AROUND 15-25 KT IS FCST BETWEEN ABOUT 30N AND FRONTAL ZONE...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO A FEW LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DOWNBURST WINDS CAPABLE OF DAMAGE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR FOCUSED ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL RISK IN ANY PARTICULAR AREA...THOUGH EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN MORE CONCENTRATED POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 17:02:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 12:02:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406271702.i5RH2KK17193@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271659 SWODY1 SPC AC 271657 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 45 NNW ALM 20 SW SAF 45 SSE ALS 15 E TAD 40 WSW EHA 45 E CVS 25 NW MAF 80 SSE MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW YUM 15 NNW BLH 45 WNW IGM 15 SSW P38 65 SW ELY 40 ENE BIH 40 SSE BIH 40 NNW NID 50 N BFL 25 W FAT 20 SE SCK 55 NNW SAC 30 WSW MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE GTF 30 SSE GCC 35 NE SNY 10 SW BBW 40 NE VTN 50 SW MBG 45 SSE P24 60 NW MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW APN 15 NW ARB 20 W FWA 20 SSE CMI 25 WNW STL 35 ESE VIH 25 ESE POF CKV 40 SE LOZ DAN 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 WNW EPM 15 SE BML 20 NE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... VORTEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN QUEBEC SENDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLATEAU AS WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS SRN CA INTO WRN AZ. QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM SERN TX ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS AND NRN AL INTO SERN NC. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS NM AND EXTREME W TX... FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EXTREME SERN CO/OK PANHANDLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO ERN CO. AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5- 8.0C/KM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HAIL AND SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG/JUST S OF THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH LA INTO SRN MS/SWRN AL. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG. THIS FIRST CLUSTER OVER SERN MS IS WORKING WITHIN EWD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS AND HAS DEVELOPED A RAIN-COOLED PUSH TO THE ACTIVITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MESOSCALE ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE. FARTHER W...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUES ALONG NRN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO RAIN-COOLED AIR BEHIND THE ACTIVITY. ...SERN PARTS OF AZ... MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WERE NOTED INDICATING THE THREAT OF STRONG MICROBURST WINDS WITH LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ...NRN PLATEAU... AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SE-NW ACROSS WRN MT. SBCAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLATEAU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 19:38:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 14:38:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406271938.i5RJcvK01318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271934 SWODY1 SPC AC 271932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 45 NNW ALM 20 SW SAF 45 SSE ALS 20 SSW TAD 25 WNW CAO 30 ENE CVS 40 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE AYS 25 S MGR 35 E MSY BTR 30 NW JAN 15 WNW TCL 25 SW AHN 60 WNW SAV 40 NNE AYS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW YUM 15 NNW BLH 35 NW EED 55 ESE BIH 45 SE BIH 40 NNW NID 50 N BFL 25 W FAT 20 SE SCK 55 NNW SAC 30 WSW MHS 50 NNW LMT 35 SSW PDT 55 WNW ALW 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNW CTB 45 SSE GTF 30 SSE GCC 35 NE SNY 10 SW BBW 40 NE VTN 50 SW MBG 45 SSE P24 60 NW MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW APN 15 NW ARB 20 W FWA 20 SSE CMI 25 WNW STL 35 ESE VIH 25 ESE POF CKV 40 SE LOZ DAN 15 ENE ECG ...CONT... 25 WNW EPM 15 SE BML 20 NE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE VRB 20 ENE EYW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...GULF COASTAL AREA/DEEP SOUTH... KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TSTM CLUSTERS TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ENEWD 30-35 KTS FROM SRN LA EWD INTO PARTS OF GA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WSWLY H85-7 FLOW OF 30-40 KTS IS BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL PROFILER/VWP SITES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING TX UPPER TROUGH. AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TSTMS IS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND/APPROACHING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPPER TX COASTAL REGION. ACROSS CNTRL FL...TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEABREEZES. H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW MINUS 8C CONTINUE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL ACROSS SERN CO AND NERN NM. THESE STORMS...AND OTHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN NM...WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND GENERALLY PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE PLAINS ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT FROM SERN KS TO THE TX PNHDL. AGAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND ONLY ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ...DESERT SW/GREAT BASIN... UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT GIVEN MORE NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION TO UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH. THUS...WIDESPREAD ACCAS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN REGION. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS CAN ORGANIZE...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS PARTS OF ID/WRN MT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 06/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 00:56:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 19:56:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406280056.i5S0unK26476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280054 SWODY1 SPC AC 280052 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ALM 40 SSE ONM 30 WNW 4CR 45 E ABQ 25 NNE TCC 10 SE CAO 25 NE DHT 25 NNE AMA PVW 10 NW HOB 20 W CNM 20 SW ALM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 45 ESE IGM 50 SW LAS 30 E MER SAC 40 SSE MHS LMT 20 ESE PDT PUW FCA 45 S CTB 40 WNW 3HT 40 W SHR DGW AKO 45 WSW GLD 50 NNW GCK SLN MKC JEF 20 WSW CGI 60 N MSL 20 ENE CHA HKY 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... 30 SSE VRB 60 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HOT 40 NW HOT 15 NNE PGO 15 S ADM 50 SSE CDS 65 ESE LBB 30 E BGS SJT 50 NE JCT ACT 25 NNW TYR 25 WSW HOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW AXN 35 ESE BRD 25 SSW IWD 30 SSW IMT 10 N MTW 25 S MKE 25 WSW MMO 10 E BRL 50 NW LWD 30 SSE SUX 20 NE BKX 50 WSW AXN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOW WAS MOVING SEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH PORTIONS OF NERN NM AND THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS RESULTING IN 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. REFERENCE WW 526. ...SERN GA AND NERN FL PANHANDLE... FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT 35 KT THROUGH THE AREA...AND IF LINE MAINTAINS CURRENT MOTION...IT WOULD REACH SERN GA COAST 04-05Z. VAD WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA SHOW WLY FLOW AT 30 KT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND A SEVERE GUST OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES THIS EVENING...SO ONLY A 5% WIND PROBABILITY REMAINS FOR THE AREA. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CONVECTION IN NV EARLIER TODAY DEVELOPED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SURGED NWD INTO SERN OR AND SRN ID. DESPITE THE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP LAPSE AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL UNTIL AROUND 04Z...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. OTHER VERY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES FROM NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..IMY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 05:56:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 00:56:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406280556.i5S5uLK10196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280553 SWODY1 SPC AC 280551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 30 NNE MOB 35 W LUL 25 NW JAN 50 WSW CBM 40 SW HSV 25 SE CHA 15 WNW AND 30 N CAE 35 ENE CRE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CAO 20 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 30 SW DEN 15 NE LAR 45 N CYS 25 SW BFF 40 WSW IML 50 NE LAA 40 S LAA 50 N CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 20 NNW BUB 45 ENE DDC 20 ENE P28 30 ESE CNU 45 W TBN 10 SW STL 10 W MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 35 WSW MSS 50 SSW SLK 35 N POU 20 W ISP ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 40 W SAD 35 S FLG 45 ENE IGM 45 WSW SGU 55 NNW P38 65 NE TPH 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30 N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 50 NNW ALW 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 25 SE IMT 60 SW IWD 20 WNW BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS...AL...GA AND SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME... A WEAKER...BUT CONVECTIVELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL MOVE FROM SRN AR INTO AL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ...THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... WILL BE REINFORCED BY A FRONT DROPPING SWD INTO NRN TX/AR/KY BY MONDAY EVENING. ...ERN MS/AL/GA/SC... THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS STABILIZED SUNDAY BY CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WEAK SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE WITH 30-35 KT WINDS. EXPECT THAT ONE OR MORE LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WITH COLD POOL/FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS RESULTING IN MAINLY A SEVERE WIND THREAT. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SO MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 17Z TO 02Z. ...ERN CO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NWRN MO BY MONDAY EVENING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HELP TO MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX ARE FORECAST TO DROP SEWD OVER THE RIDGE AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SBCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS... THOUGH A LAND SPOUT OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK..SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY...SURFACE TROUGH/ CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT UNDIRECTIONAL WINDS THAT INCREASE WITH HEIGHT FROM 700-300 MB...SUGGEST A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...IF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE MODE...ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND IS FORECAST ATTM. ..IMY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 12:56:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 07:56:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406281256.i5SCuQK05845@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281253 SWODY1 SPC AC 281250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CAO 20 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 30 SW DEN 15 NE LAR 45 N CYS 25 SW BFF 30 NNE AKO 45 E LIC LAA 50 N CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 30 NNE MOB 35 SE ESF MLU BHM 40 N GAD 35 SE CHA AND CAE 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON ...CONT... 15 WSW FHU 60 N TUS 45 ESE PRC 50 E IGM 40 ENE LAS 50 W P38 45 E TPH 60 NE MER 45 SE EKA 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 50 NNW ALW 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MS DELTA AREA EWD TO COASTAL GA/SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN WY...CO FRONT RANGE AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RATHER STATIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONE OVER QUE AND MEAN RIDGE FROM NRN MEX NNWWD OVER ROCKIES TO NWRN CANADA. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER MS VALLEY -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS MS/AL/GA THROUGH 29/06Z. AT SFC...WAVY/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM TIDEWATER VA/NC AREA WSWWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS AND NRN AR...CENTRAL/SWRN OK...AND SW TX/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGION. FRONT EFFECTIVELY HAS BEEN REINFORCED AND SHUNTED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SWD OVER PAST 8-10 HOURS BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ORIGINATING OVER ERN NM AND TX HIGH PLAINS. ...SERN CONUS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...ONCE DIABATIC HEATING HELPS BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER FROM EFFECTS OF CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS DAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH PRIMARY CONCERN BEING DAMAGING GUSTS WHEREVER AGGREGATE COLD POOLS CAN ORGANIZE AND CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON MODIFIED RUC AND ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND DEEP/RICH MOIST LAYER IN LOW LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. KINEMATICALLY...EXPECT NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW THROUGH DEEP LAYER...WITH SOME MIDLEVEL GRADIENT FLOW ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MS VALLEY TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...BELT OF 30-45 KT 700 MB WINDS IS BOTH OBSERVED IN MORNING RAOBS AND PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE 29/00Z...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN ANY ORGANIZED...COLD-POOL RELATED REAR INFLOW JETS THAT MAY BE GENERATED. THIS REGIME MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS SERN VA/NC AREA BY AROUND 29/00Z...HOWEVER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE CONDITIONAL OVER THIS REGION BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT CONVECTIVE MODE AND DESTABILIZATION. SERN STATES SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 29/02Z...AS AIR MASS STABILIZES FROM BOTH OUTFLOW PROCESSES AND LOSS OF INSOLATION. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONCE AGAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ADJACENT CYS/PALMER/RATON RIDGES. ALTHOUGH LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH MEAN RIDGE JUST W OF AREA -- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CO MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION FOR A SHORT INTERVAL AFTER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS IS WHERE GREATEST PROBABILITIES ARE ASSIGNED FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL. PRONOUNCED VEERING IS FCST FROM SFC THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 4 KM AGL ACROSS ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...AND 20-30 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLYS ARE POSSIBLE N OF I-70. ELY FLOW COMPONENT TODAY SHOULD HELP TO ADVECT RESIDUAL/POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UPSLOPE...WITH 50S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF ERN CO AND MID-UPPER 40S SERN WY. MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE JUST E OF FRONT RANGE BY 21Z...AWAY FROM AREAS OF CONVECTION...AS EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. ...NWRN CONUS...INTERMOUNTAIN W... PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...AS DIABATIC HEATING ON HIGHER TERRAIN ELIMINATES CINH. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE. EXPECT MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG OVER GREAT BASIN AND SWRN WY TO AROUND 800 J/KG INVOF WRN ID/NERN ORE/SERN WA. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 16:22:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 11:22:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406281622.i5SGMo131669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281620 SWODY1 SPC AC 281617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CAO 15 SSE RTN 55 NNE SAF 50 E GUC 30 NNW 4FC 10 NW LAR 35 ENE CYS 25 NNW AKO 30 ENE LIC 20 E LHX 30 NNW CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SSI 30 WNW ABY 40 E LUL 25 ENE ESF 40 S PBF 15 SSW UOX 35 NNE GAD 30 NNW AHN CAE 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 30 SE SBN 40 SSE OSC ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN 60 SW PRC 25 SE EED 25 SSW LAS 40 ENE DRA 70 ESE TPH 45 SSW BIH 25 ENE FAT 35 N MER 45 NW RBL 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 40 E YKM 40 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM.... ...SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SEWD AND EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DELMARVA TODAY AROUND PREDOMINANT VORTEX ANCHORED OVER QUEBEC. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PACIFIC COAST REGION. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SERN STATES. SEVERAL WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM LA EWD INTO NRN GA. ALSO A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LK ERIE SWWD INTO AR. SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEB REACHING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SERN STATES FROM SERN AR/NERN LA INTO GA/SC... AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX INTO SRN MS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE OVER N CENTRAL TX...IN WHICH THE MODELS HINT AT THIS FEATURE MINORING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT FLOW WILL BE 30-40 KT ABOVE 1-2 KM ACROSS THE AREA FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ...FRONT RANGE OF CO SWD INTO PARTS OF NERN NM... SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY TONIGHT RESULTING IN SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO AND NERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS ERN CO...AND UPPER 50S ACROSS NERN NM. INCREASING INSOLATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AS INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL WITH MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG. SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES INDICATING THE THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE NEAR 7C/KM TO SUPPORT SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 19:47:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 14:47:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406281948.i5SJm4128049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281946 SWODY1 SPC AC 281944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CAO 35 W CAO 45 W RTN 45 W PUB 25 SSE 4FC 25 S LAR 45 ESE CYS 30 WNW AKO LIC LHX 30 NNW CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BVE 10 WSW LUL 15 ESE CBM 35 ESE AHN 45 ENE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN GBN 60 SW PRC 25 SE EED 25 SSW LAS 40 ENE DRA 70 ESE TPH 45 SSW BIH 25 ENE FAT 35 N MER 45 NW RBL 25 ESE CEC 30 ESE OTH 40 E YKM 40 NE 4OM ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 60 NNE BIL 40 NNW PHP 25 N BBW 40 ENE DDC 25 ESE P28 30 SSE CNU 40 W TBN 10 SSW ALN MTO 40 WSW TOL 35 NE MTC ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 20 SSW CON 45 S GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE SSI 35 SSW AYS 15 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ANJ 30 SE IMT RHI BRD 30 NNW FAR 25 E DVL 60 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS ERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE FRONT RANGE HAS CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TO NEAR 70F AS OF 19Z. LATEST RUC2 FORECAST SOUNDINGS USING 74/52 NEAR DENVER SUGGESTS 800 J/KG MLCAPES AND LITTLE CINH. THUS...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INVOF DENVER CYCLONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CAPPED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LATER ONSET OF STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. ATTM...AREA PROFILERS DEPICT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /AOB 20 KTS/. SHORT TERM MODELS DO INDICATE THAT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR BRIEFLY ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF DENVER. ...SERN STATES... DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. SHEARING MIDLEVEL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NERN MS WITH A BELT OF 20-35 KT FLOW IN THE 1-4 KM RANGE SPREADING EWD ALONG THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH CNTRL AL TO SC. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS AN AGITATED CU FIELD/TCU FROM CNTRL MS TO CNTRL GA ALONG A WEAK FRONT. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM COLLAPSING SEABREEZE TSTMS INTERACT WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS BETWEEN THE SEABREEZE AND FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG OWING TO H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 10C ATOP 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE PULSE SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...EVIDENCE OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT FARTHER NORTH WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THE PROBABILITIES OF MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENT. FARTHER SOUTH IN FL...A RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM A DEPARTING FLIGHT OUT OF MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SUGGESTED AN H5 TEMPERATURE NEAR MINUS 8C. SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR MORE TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY COLLAPSE. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MORE CONCENTRATED TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM NRN NV ACROSS SRN UT INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE REGIONS RESIDE JUST AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME. ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A SEVERE WIND GUST OR HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 00:34:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 19:34:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406290035.i5T0ZP108801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290029 SWODY1 SPC AC 290027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PKB LBE 30 SW ELM 40 NE UCA 15 E GFL 10 WNW BAF 20 S EWR 35 ESE BWI 40 E CHO 40 SW EKN 15 SE PKB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 20 WSW PLN 30 S ESC 25 NW RHI IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU FLG 40 NNE IGM 35 W SGU 70 E TPH TPH 45 SSE BIH 50 E FAT UKI 30 SE EKA 25 ENE 4BK 50 NW RDM PDT 35 NNE 63S ...CONT... 50 WNW CTB GTF SHR 50 WNW CDR AKO 55 NNE CAO GAG 15 NNW HRO 35 NNE PBF 45 E RMG 10 WSW GSP 30 SSE PSK 20 ESE ECG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LOW CLOUDS INHIBITED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PREVENTED THE STORMS FROM INTENSIFYING AND BECOME SEVERE. THREAT OF SEVERE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ALSO APPEARS MINIMAL. ...TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES... STRONG CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NRN TX EWD INTO CENTRAL GA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE HAVE SURGED NWD INTO CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL. ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY EWD MOVING STORM...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD ALSO BE OVER DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST AND/OR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03/04Z. ..IMY.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 04:58:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 23:58:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406290458.i5T4w6125518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290455 SWODY1 SPC AC 290453 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW IML 25 NNE BFF 45 W CDR 25 WSW RAP 20 SSE PHP 45 NNE ANW 15 NE BUB 30 ESE LBF 45 NNW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE PSM 20 SSE PSF 30 NNE AVP 20 S BFD 20 NNE YNG TOL 10 NE SBN 25 NNW CGX 20 W JVL 15 ENE RST 10 W BRD 35 ESE RRT ...CONT... 65 ENE HVR 40 WSW GGW 20 W GDV 50 SE GDV 35 NE REJ 50 N PHP 25 SE PIR 30 WSW MHE 25 SW YKN 30 WSW OLU 10 SW HSI 35 E MCK 20 SSW MCK 25 ENE GLD 50 SSE GLD 20 NW GCK 30 E DDC 25 NE CNU 25 E TBN 25 NW BWG 50 ENE BWG 45 NNE CSV 40 SSE LOZ 25 SSW 5I3 30 SSW CRW 30 NNE BKW 20 E SSU 45 E LYH 25 NE ORF ...CONT... 10 SSE DUG 35 N INW 30 SSE CDC ELY 45 SSE EKO 40 SSE BAM 30 WNW TPH 30 SE BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 SW TVL 25 SE RBL 40 S EKA 10 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 30 S YKM 45 SE EPH 15 NNE GEG 85 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN SD AND WRN/NRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY STAGNANT LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION...AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. ...HIGH PLAINS AREA... WEAK LEE TROUGHING SHOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SELY WINDS TO ADVECT MID AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...STRONG TURNING OF WINDS FROM SELY TO NWLY IN THE LOWER 3-4 KM SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL THEY MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB. THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUTFLOW DOMINATED WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND AND BRIEF HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WITHIN THE NRN STREAM WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER MAY AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND...BUT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN ...AND ONLY VERY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED. ...NRN CA/ORE/ID... WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH NRN NV MONDAY EVENING WITHIN MOIST TROPICAL PLUME. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO ERN ORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUNDINGS WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 13:05:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 08:05:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406291305.i5TD5s111601@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291302 SWODY1 SPC AC 291301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW IML 25 NNE BFF 45 W CDR 25 WSW RAP PHP 9V9 15 NE BUB 30 ESE LBF 45 NNW IML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE DUG 55 ENE PHX 15 SSE SGU 20 NNE ELY 40 S EKO 40 SSE BAM 30 WNW U31 25 ENE BIH 35 NNE FAT 40 SW TVL 25 SE RBL 50 SSE EKA 35 NNE 4BK 45 E SLE 25 SSW EAT 35 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 20 S GDV 20 ESE REJ 45 WNW PIR 35 S ABR 25 ESE BKX 25 ESE YKN 30 E HSI 15 N HLC 40 S HLC 25 NNE DDC 10 NNE ICT 45 ENE COU 35 WNW EVV 15 S LEX 25 S HTS CRW 35 WSW SHD 35 WNW ORF 45 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE PSM 20 S BFD TOL 25 SW CGX 10 SE DBQ 40 E MKT 40 SSW BJI 65 NNE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN/SRN SD AND WRN/NRN NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME TODAY AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AIDING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...DAY TIME HEATING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED TROPICAL AIR MASS. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WILL TRACK SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD WRN OK SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ONGOING BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN/NRN NEB IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS 20-25 KT SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD TODAY....BUT RICHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED FROM RETURNING NWD BY FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS NEB/SD COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING MAY RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...DESPITE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AS OBSERVED WITH 12Z LBF RAOB. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN SD/NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SRN SD AND ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING CONVECTION/ CLOUD DEBRIS. ALTHOUGH WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 6 KM WILL BE AOB 20 KT...SSELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH NWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KT/ FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL...HOWEVER...RESULT IN MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL...AND MAY BE REMOVED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF EXPECTED INSTABILITY DOES NOT DEVELOP. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND 50+ KT SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS NY/SRN QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NRN WI/LOWER MI TODAY...AND EWD ACROSS NY TO NEW ENGLAND AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM SRN ONTARIO TO SRN QUEBEC. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS WI/LOWER MI...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER WRN NY TO THE UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ UPPER ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE AREAS. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE FORECAST. ...NRN CA/ORE/ID... SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS ERN ORE TODAY AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITHIN FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS NRN CA TO CENTRAL ORE...BUT STRONGER FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SOMEWHAT OVER ERN ORE AND ID FOR MULTICELLS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...THOUGH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 16:35:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 11:35:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406291635.i5TGZ5114119@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291631 SWODY1 SPC AC 291629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA 40 WNW CDR 55 WSW RAP 35 NW RAP 10 N PHP 15 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 35 SSE MHN AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML GFL 20 WNW ITH 45 NE CLE 30 NNE BEH 45 WNW MKG 30 SSE MBL 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PWM 20 SSW ALB 25 ENE CLE 25 W BEH 30 ESE RST 30 WSW AXN 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 ESE PRC 60 WNW ELY 10 E NFL 25 ENE TVL 20 NNE BIH 40 NW NID 35 SE FAT 40 N SAC 10 SSW UKI 20 ENE 4BK 35 ENE YKM 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 70 WNW MLS 50 SE REJ 20 ESE HON 25 SW FSD 20 SE OLU 20 NNE SLN 35 E HUT 40 S EMP 30 NNE SGF 45 WSW EVV 45 SE LUK 35 SSW HLG 30 W SHD 25 W DAN 20 N RDU 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR GRTLKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB/SD... ...SYNOPSIS... SUMMER TYPE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE RCKYS...AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS ERN CANADA/THE GRT LKS AND NEW ENG. CLOSED LOWS WILL LINGER OVER CA AND BC...S OF PERSISTENT ALASKAN BLOCK. GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN WEAK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURES APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PLAY THE DOMINANT ROLE IN MODULATING TIMING/PLACEMENT OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ...ERN GRT LKS TO NRN NEW ENG... SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW N OF LK HURON WILL CONTINUE ESE INTO SW QUEBEC LATER TODAY...AND INTO NRN ME BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ATTM EXTENDING FROM SW QUEBEC TO NRN LWR MI...SHOULD REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY THIS EVENING AND NRN NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL BE UNINHIBITED...GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE DATA. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WI/LWR MI EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN NEW YORK AND POSSIBLY FAR NRN NEW ENG LATER TODAY. BELT OF MODERATE W/WNWLY FLOW EXTENDING S OF IMPULSE INTO THE NERN U.S. WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT. THIS ...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL/DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...MAY SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS/BANDS OF MULTICELL STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. ...WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB... WEAK NWLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER PARTS OF NEB/SD TODAY...RELATIVE TO OTHER PARTS OF THE CNTRL U.S. FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WITH STRONGEST UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN SD EXPECTED TO HEAD ESE AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB. HEATING MAY INITIATE ONE OR TWO STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE LATER TODAY...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR OUTFLOW-DOMINANT PULSE ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WIND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES /MLCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 20-30 KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR. ...NRN CA/INTERIOR ORE/NRN GRT BASIN... SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP LATER TODAY ALONG A SW/NE AXIS FROM NRN CA ACROSS CNTRL ORE INTO WRN/NRN ID. AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER REGION TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AVERAGE PWS APPROACHING ONE INCH. DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS/BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY NE ALONG DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOTH DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE FORCING OVER REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO SUSTAINED CLUSTERS...AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 19:47:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 14:47:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406291947.i5TJlF103509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291944 SWODY1 SPC AC 291942 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AIA 40 WNW CDR 55 WSW RAP 35 NW RAP 10 N PHP 15 SSW 9V9 35 E ANW 35 SSE MHN AIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SYR 20 NNE BFD 35 N MFD 35 NNE BEH 60 NE EAU 15 NNE IWD 25 S MQT 20 WSW HTL 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PWM 35 N MSV 20 NW MFD 25 W BEH 30 ESE RST 30 WSW AXN 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 50 ESE PRC 60 WNW ELY 10 E NFL 25 ENE TVL 20 NNE BIH 40 NW NID 35 SE FAT 40 N SAC 10 SSW UKI 20 ENE 4BK 35 ENE YKM 35 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE HVR 70 WNW MLS 50 SE REJ 20 ESE HON 25 SW FSD 20 SE OLU 20 NNE SLN 35 E HUT 40 S EMP 30 NNE SGF 45 WSW EVV 45 SE LUK 35 SSW HLG 30 W SHD 25 W DAN 20 N RDU 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD / NEB / ERN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO ERN WY... INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY TO MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN SD / NWRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE BLACK HILLS. INSTABILITY / SHEAR COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 20 KT AND AOB 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SEWD / SWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST / GREAT LAKES REGION AS STRONG UPPER CIRCULATION NOW OVER SWRN QUEBEC CONTINUES MOVING EWD. ALTHOUGH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS INDICATED -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PAC NW / NRN GREAT BASIN... SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS CONTINUE MOVING NWD WITHIN WEAK SLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG ERN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS LITTLE UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW JUST E OF NRN CA CIRCULATION CENTER MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL FROM NRN CA NEWD INTO ID. ELSEWHERE...A FEW LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ...MIDDLE MS / TN VALLEY REGION... WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY / WIND SHIFT LYING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL AR / WRN TN WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENTLY BEING AIDED BY VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN AR INTO NRN MS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...VERY MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 06/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 30 01:00:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 20:00:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200406300100.i5U10B123768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300056 SWODY1 SPC AC 300054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU 40 SE PRC 60 SW ELY 20 NW U31 10 ENE NFL 30 SSE RNO 20 N BIH 55 SSE BIH 60 NW NID 35 SE FAT 25 NNE SAC 40 ESE UKI 20 N UKI 15 ENE 4BK 35 ESE SLE 30 S EAT 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 80 SW GGW 20 SW MLS 30 E REJ 40 SSW MBG 20 NE 9V9 35 WNW OFK 30 NNW CNK 35 ENE HUT 40 S EMP 30 NNE SGF 35 E MDH 35 NNW HTS 45 WSW EKN 10 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE PWM 10 WNW PSF 35 NW IPT 15 SW MFD 20 W SBN 30 NE RST 30 N AXN 60 NNE DVL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NE MN EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN WI INTO CNTRL LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 30 TO 40 KT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN THE GRAND RAPIDS TO LANSING AREA AS CELLS MOVE INLAND FROM LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS ONGOING NORTH OF DETROIT MAY ALSO POSE A BRIEF MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...PACIFIC NW... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS OF WRN ID...ERN ORE AND NRN CA. THIS IS RESULTING IN SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE AREA IN FAR ERN ORE AND WRN ID WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC NW IS ABOUT 30 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS OR SHORT-LIVED WEAKLY ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NWD ACROSS THE REGION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -13 C WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES F WILL FAVOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...HIGH PLAINS... A LINE OF WIDELY-SPACED STRONG STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS WRN NEB. THE LINE IS ORIENTED ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F FROM CNTRL NEB EXTENDING NWWD INTO NW NEB. THE LBF 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT AT UPPER-LEVELS WHICH IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AS SHOWN BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL OR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES. ..BROYLES.. 06/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.