[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 292138
SWODY1
SPC AC 292136

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
TAD 25 SW PUB 15 WSW FCL CPR 35 SW GCC 30 NE 81V 60 SSE Y22 40 NNE
PIR 35 NNE 9V9 55 ENE ANW 40 SSE IML 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML
...CONT... 40 NNW APN 20 W SBN 20 E MVN 40 NE DYR 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW
BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT
20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 25 NNW TWF 35 N 27U 45 SE
CTB 50 E HVR 30 S DIK 50 SW AXN 45 E STC 25 ENE IWD 15 NW CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...SW
SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO...

AMENDED FOR EXTENDING SLIGHT RISK INTO CNTRL SD

...CNTRL SD...
ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS CNTRL SD...THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
REFERENCE MCD# 1793.

...HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A
LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO. SFC WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN
LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM DENVER
EXTENDING NWD TO ABOUT CHADRON NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND
HIGH LCLS...WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH LARGE
HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM IN THIS CORRIDOR. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 20
DEGREES F. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...DECREASING SLOWLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL TX INTO FAR SE OK. A COLD POOL FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE DALLAS/FT WORTH
AREA. STRONG SFC HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
POOL HAS CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR DEL
RIO EXTENDING EWD INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND THE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.