[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170553
SWODY1
SPC AC 170551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BPT 45
S LFK 55 WNW LFK 20 NNE TYR 30 SSW ELD 15 NE GWO 35 WSW MSL 45 ESE
BNA 40 E CHA 40 NE ATL 25 NE MGM 30 SSW LUL GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 40 WSW LNK
30 WNW SLN 20 NW P28 20 SSW OKC 10 WSW PGO 20 E UNO 20 S DEC 35 ESE
ESC 25 NW ANJ ...CONT... 20 W PSX 50 WSW HDO 15 NE P07 ALM SVC 45 E
DUG ...CONT... 10 NNE YUM 35 ESE LAS 20 E DRA 25 SW BIH 65 SE RBL 30
SSW MFR 25 ENE UIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN TX THROUGH THE
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SERN STATES THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND E TX...

UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN U.S. MAINTAINING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AND INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER
TODAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY OH
SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MCS MAY BE ONGOING WITH POSSIBLE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS BY 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SEWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS MAY COVER PART OF THE SERN STATES DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA...LIMITING OR DELAYING
DESTABILIZATION. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OF THE MCS
AHEAD OF SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MS
NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SEWD MOVING
FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOB 30 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS...BUT STORMS MAY TEND TO
ORGANIZED INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM LA WWD INTO E TX WHERE A RESERVOIR OF
UNUSED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH MID EVENING.

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ERN NC INTO ERN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RICHER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH ERN NC...AND THIS MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD INTO
PARTS OF SERN VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA
WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...POSSIBLY AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH THREAT OF MAINLY WET
MICROBURSTS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.


...NW U.S....

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NWRN U.S. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 07/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.