[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150200
SWODY1
SPC AC 150158

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10
WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID
50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 60
ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV
40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE
FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 20
ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW
RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH
...CONT... 35 WSW PNS 10 S JAN 35 SE FYV 20 SSE UMN 20 SE SGF 35 WSW
MKL ANB 50 W AGS 35 SW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH
NRN HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE REVERSAL IN SOUTHEAST

...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC...

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N
CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A
BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35
KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR
MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS
MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.


...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA
THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF
STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND
NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN
AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD
INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS...


THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN
NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT
THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY
CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 07/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.