[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130603
SWODY1
SPC AC 130600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 30 SW LEX 35 WSW EVV 25 W STL 45 NE P35 55
NE ALO 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15
SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR
30 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 35 W YKN SPW 40 WNW EAU 75 N IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 35 SW LFK 25
S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 WSW HOT 50 NW LIT 20 E HRO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN
50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT...
10 SW IPL IGM 30 SSE SGU 10 NNE MLF 35 NNW PIH 25 S 27U 40 E BKE 25
NNW BNO 70 S RDM 50 SSE EUG OLM 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 25
N PIR 15 ENE MHE 25 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 25 ESE BRD 35 NW HIB 40 WNW
INL ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...NERN
MO...MUCH OF IL...IN...THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...AND MUCH OF OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE ATTM IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD -- AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF
LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES.  THIS
FEATURE -- AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...VERY MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/
IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MID AND UPPER MS / OH
VALLEYS...AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED FARTHER W
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MAY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT.

...MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS / UPPER
GREAT LAKES...
ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF GREATEST THREAT IS DIFFICULT TO NARROW
DOWN ATTM...LARGE-SCALE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST / UPPER
GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION.

STORMS ARE INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF MN / IA...AND THIS TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  IF
ACTIVITY HAS NOT ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BOWING STORM CLUSTERS WITH WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOLS SHOULD
EVOLVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. 

STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE REGION -- WITH STRONG /
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER / MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF UPPER TROUGH.  STRENGTH OF FLOW AND DEGREE
OF MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE.  

GREATEST TORNADO / LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS IA / NERN MO AND
PARTS OF IL / IND...WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED /
SUPERCELL STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST.  HOWEVER...STORM MODE SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY BOWS / LINES.  IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
ROTATING COMMA HEADS OR SMALLER-SCALE BOWING ACROSS THIS REGION.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SEVERE THREAT LIKELY EXTENDING AS FAR EWD AS THE APPALACHIANS FROM
NY SWD TO ERN TN / N GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO SRN SD / NEB...
PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MT / WY / NERN CO N OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THIS REGION.  UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THIS
REGION SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO ALLOW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.  

AS STORMS MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY
EVENING...COMBINATION OF MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER FAR SWRN SD /
NEB AND DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
INCREASE.  SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL DEVELOP...20 TO 25 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A RAPIDLY
SEWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NEB -- WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.  MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MORE
ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS...PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
/ HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

...AZ...
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SWRN NM / SERN AZ AND NWWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
AGAIN THIS PERIOD...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. 
WITH MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW PERSISTING...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MAY PROPAGATE AS FAR WWD AS THE CO RIVER
VALLEY.  VERY DEEP / DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

..GOSS.. 07/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.