From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 05:48:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 00:48:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407030549.i635nE113739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030547 SWODY1 SPC AC 030545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE UNO 50 SSW BLV 20 NE MVN 20 N OWB 10 SW BWG 10 NW MSL 10 NE GWO 20 S PBF 30 WNW LIT 15 ESE UNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PHP 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW BBW 30 N DDC 10 NE LBL 35 WNW EHA 20 N LHX 40 NW AKO 45 SW RAP 30 NNW PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SSW ELM 35 S CXY 35 SW WAL ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 60 NE CLL 35 NW ACT 35 W BWD 70 N DRT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 65 E DUG 50 NW TCS 4SL 50 SSW GUC GJT 20 ENE PUC 25 NW U24 15 S ELY 20 SW TPH 20 NNE NID 10 WSW EDW 20 NNE OXR 15 NNE SCK 40 SSW MHS 35 N MFR 30 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR TO SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS TO SWRN SD... ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY... MID MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE A NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN KS...ARCING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER AR...NEWD INTO SRN IL/IND. EARLY THIS MORNING...MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION EXPOSE THE CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF MCI IN NWRN MO. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DUE TO STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OK APPEARS TO BE AIDING EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN MO/NRN AR INTO NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS ERN OK/AR BY 12-15Z. LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RENEWED...POSSIBLY MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A ZONE FROM SERN AR INTO SRN IL BENEATH MODEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVOR AT LEAST MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME HAIL OR WIND WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...HIGH PLAINS... SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...ACROSS WY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN SD INTO WRN NEB AS LLJ BEGINS TO RESPOND AND INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE...STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SPEED SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL TYPE UPDRAFTS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS ONE OR MORE POSSIBLE MCS/S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SEWD PROPAGATION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 12:46:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 07:46:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407031247.i63Cli106360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031245 SWODY1 SPC AC 031243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PBF 30 NNW LIT 15 E UNO 50 SSW BLV 20 NE MVN 20 N OWB 10 SW BWG 10 NW MSL 10 NE GWO 20 SSW PBF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW BBW 30 N DDC 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SSW ELM 35 S CXY 35 SW WAL ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 25 WSW CLL 55 W TPL 50 N JCT 70 N DRT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 SSW SOW 30 NW SOW 40 NE FLG 45 SE SGU 35 NW P38 55 NW DRA 20 NNE NID 10 WSW EDW 20 NNE OXR 15 NNE SCK 40 SSW MHS 35 N MFR 30 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...MID MS VALLEY... A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK AND AR SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO NRN LA. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW'S PERIPHERY AS TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NW LA NNEWD TO WRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S F. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 45 TO 50 KT ACROSS NCNTRL OK. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BARELY INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THE 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM MEMPHIS TN SHOWS MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG. AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SE MO SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE MODE OF CONVECTION. 25 TO 35 KT OF FLOW IS FORECAST AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...HIGH PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NRN WY WILL MOVE EWD INTO SD AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN NEB ACROSS WRN KS. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SFC TEMPS FROM 85 TO 95 F ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FOR GOODLAND SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED OR EXCEEDED. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STORMS. THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE NE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION AND THE STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 16:07:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 11:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407031608.i63G8P105949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031605 SWODY1 SPC AC 031604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ELD 45 NE PBF 25 ESE POF 25 ENE BLV 55 ESE MMO 25 W MIE 25 ENE SDF 25 SSE MSL 25 WNW JAN 25 SSW ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 35 NW OFK 20 SW LNK 20 NE SLN 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT 15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 40 S MAF 35 WSW FST 10 SSW MRF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30 NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38 70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45 WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 25 NW IPT 35 S CXY 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NE PWM 60 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...WRN OH/MID MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW MO/IA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO WI BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN MO WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM IR/WV IMAGERY OF A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NERN KS FRI NOW A WEAKER CIRCULATION OVE SRN IA WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING S OF THIS CENTER ACROSS MO INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS REDUCING HEATING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF IL...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO INDIANA THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80S AND DEWPOINTS LOW 70S. MUCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 2500 J/KG AND ABOVE WITH LITTLE CIN MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IN AT 15Z. WITH A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LCL/S OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE MUCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES AND MOVED THE RISK AREA NWD THRU ERN IL/IN. FURTHER S ACROSS WRN TN VALLEY INTO NRN PORTION OF LOWER MS VALLEY...THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A MORE PULSE SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WITH A MODEST W/WNWLY FLOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...A PULSE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATE E/SEWD. TONIGHT A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NEB. THE OUTLOOK THEREFORE HAS SPREAD SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LAST DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 16:46:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 11:46:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407031647.i63Gl3117413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031645 SWODY1 SPC AC 031644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 35 NW OFK 20 SW LNK 20 NE SLN 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ELD 45 W MEM 35 ESE POF SLO 50 NW LAF 35 NW MIE 25 E SDF 10 WSW HSV 35 ENE JAN 25 SSW ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT 15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 40 S MAF 35 WSW FST 10 SSW MRF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30 NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38 70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45 WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 25 NW IPT 35 S CXY 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NE PWM 60 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...WRN OH/MID MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW MO/IA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO WI BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN MO WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM IR/WV IMAGERY OF A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NERN KS FRI NOW A WEAKER CIRCULATION OVE SRN IA WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING S OF THIS CENTER ACROSS MO INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS REDUCING HEATING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF IL...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO INDIANA THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80S AND DEWPOINTS LOW 70S. MUCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 2500 J/KG AND ABOVE WITH LITTLE CIN MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IN AT 15Z. WITH A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LCL/S OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE MUCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES AND MOVED THE RISK AREA NWD THRU ERN IL/IN. FURTHER S ACROSS WRN TN VALLEY INTO NRN PORTION OF LOWER MS VALLEY...THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A MORE PULSE SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WITH A MODEST W/WNWLY FLOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...A PULSE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATE E/SEWD. TONIGHT A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NEB. THE OUTLOOK THEREFORE HAS SPREAD SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LAST DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. ..HALES.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 20:16:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 15:16:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407032017.i63KH5113435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032012 SWODY1 SPC AC 032010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW GCK 25 SW GLD 15 W CYS 20 ENE DGW 25 N RAP 15 ENE PHP 30 N OFK 30 SSW OMA 25 NW EMP 10 W P28 15 SSW GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW UOX 35 SSE MKL 25 W HOP 30 WNW MMO 30 S MKE 20 N GRR 40 SSE FDY 30 NW LOZ 25 NW GAD 20 SW GWO 15 NW UOX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT 15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 20 SSW FST 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30 NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38 70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45 WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 20 NW ART 20 ENE PSB 30 NNW DCA 30 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NE PWM 35 N 3B1 35 NNW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH / TN VALLEYS INTO THE SRN LOWER LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... ...PARTS OF THE OH / TN VALLEYS / SRN UPPER LAKES... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS IND AND VICINITY AS MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN IA / WRN IL / NERN MO ATTM. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS IND AND INTO WRN OH / LOWER MI. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 1485. ...PARTS OF THE PLAINS... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE S OF FRONT DROPPING SWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS S OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SWD TO W TX AS CAP WEAKENS LOCALLY. WEAKER FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGESTS MAINLY PULSE STORMS WITH A LOCAL HAIL / WIND THREAT. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PULSE / HIGH-BASED...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL THE MAIN THREATS HERE THROUGH MID-EVENING. SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN WY / SWRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MOVE SEWD...AND THEN INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELT OF STRONGER /AROUND 40 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ALTHOUGH INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELL / SUPERCELL...ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 06:00:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 01:00:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407040601.i64615100846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040558 SWODY1 SPC AC 040556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ROC 30 NE PSB 50 SSE LBE 25 NNW PKB 20 W MFD 25 SSE JXN 15 NE LAN 45 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 10 WNW Y22 25 WSW PIR 15 ENE ANW 30 NE OFK 35 S MCW 30 E CID 35 E UIN 35 WNW POF 55 SW JBR 30 NNW HOT 30 SSW MKO 20 SSW PNC 30 E GAG 45 SSW GAG EHA 50 N LAA 10 E SNY 20 WSW 4BQ 40 SSW BIL 40 E LVM 40 NW LWT 30 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 15 SSW LCH 35 WNW MLU 45 E PRX 45 E SPS 10 N BWD DRT ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 10 ESE TCS 10 N ONM 25 W SAF 20 NNW DRO 40 N 4BL 20 SSE MLF 20 WNW P38 60 S TPH 20 E NID 30 ESE BFL 30 E SCK 35 S LMT 90 SE BNO 40 SE ALW 40 WSW GEG 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NE OLF 50 SSE ISN 30 SW BIS 55 NNW ABR 35 ESE FAR 35 WNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING AND PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM POSITIVELY TILTED IMPULSE ENTERING THE UPPER LAKES REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS/MO VLYS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS 1/ SRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERTS BECOMES DISLODGED AND MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND 2/ NRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SETTLES SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF HEATING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. NONETHELESS...STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST TO KEEP AT LEAST CONDITIONAL RISKS OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. STRONGEST FORCING/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PASS NEWD INTO ONTARIO. ANY CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF ERN LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS. ...CNTRL TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS /WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/ ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD VCNTY THE MO/KS/AR/OK BORDER. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ REMAINS VEERED AND DIRECTED INTO THE DECAYING MCS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE BACKBUILDING TSTMS INTO NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND NRN AR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM VERY UNSTABLE...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MEANWHILE...CAP IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NWD INTO SRN KS SUNDAY. MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY BENEATH THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE VCNTY TRIPLE POINT SWRN KS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEWD INTO SERN NEB AND SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR 35-40 KTS AND MLCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER MCS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ESEWD INTO NERN OK...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS...WITH THE NRN-MOST STORMS /ACROSS NRN MO/ WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ATOP RESIDUAL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THE EARLY SUNDAY MCS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THE LENGTH OF THE LEE-TROUGH/ BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN NERN CO...BLACK HILLS AND INTO CNTRL MT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INFLUX OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CNTRL MT-BLACK HILLS REGION BENEATH APPROACHING MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH/INCREASED WLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND MOVE EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF SD AND NEB SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONVERGENT THAN ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...IF THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING WILL BE NEAR THE WRN OK BORDER INTO SWRN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW...AND WILL REFLECT LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE ATTM. ...CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN AREA... A MCV MAY EVOLVE FROM UPSTREAM CNTRL PLAINS CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE EWD INTO THE KY/TN AREA BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY THE MCV AND TRACK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN DURING THE EVENING WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 13:02:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 08:02:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407041303.i64D3Z127263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041301 SWODY1 SPC AC 041258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ROC 30 W ELM 25 NE AOO 30 E MGW 20 SSE ZZV 30 ESE FDY FNT 30 NE PLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PGO 40 NW PGO 10 E TUL 25 NE PNC 35 ESE P28 15 SE GAG 50 WSW GAG 10 ESE EHA 50 W GLD 25 SSE BFF 15 SSW GCC 25 SW 3HT 35 SSE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 SSE HVR 40 W GDV 25 WSW Y22 9V9 30 SW SUX 20 NE P35 50 NE COU 50 NNW POF 35 SW ARG 30 NNE HOT 30 E PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW MOT 30 WSW P24 25 SW BIS 55 NNW ABR 35 ESE FAR 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 25 S LCH 10 ENE SHV 40 SE PRX 40 NNE DAL 10 N BWD DRT ...CONT... 55 SW DMN 25 W TCS 40 NW ONM 25 WSW 4SL 20 NNW DRO 40 N 4BL 20 SSE MLF 20 WNW P38 60 S TPH 20 E NID 30 ESE BFL 30 E SCK 35 S LMT 90 SE BNO 40 SE ALW 40 WSW GEG 60 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT AND SPREAD STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO AND WRN KS. OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SE MT SEWD INTO WRN NEB. THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S F AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL FEED AN MCS AS IT TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS KS DURING THE EVENING. STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS AND WLY FLOW AT ABOUT 35 KT WILL RESULT IN 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 9.0 C/KM. SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS GREATER THAN 20 DEGREES F WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW NE OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS. THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS SPREADS EWD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS. ...OZARK PLATEAU... A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NW AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD THIS MORNING. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL AR LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE SHOULD OCCUR AS IT OUTRUNS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OVER NE OK AND FAR SW MO. A COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STABILIZING THE AIR OVER SE KS...SW MO...ERN OK AND AR...LIKELY PREVENTING STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM RE-OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. ...ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. LINES OF CONVECTION WILL SPIN AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LOW...MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH AND ERN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY AND WRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN OH BY EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY BAND OF ASCENT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER-LOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 16:14:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 11:14:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407041615.i64GFR118850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041612 SWODY1 SPC AC 041610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ROC 30 W ELM 25 NE AOO 35 NNE SSU 15 NW BKW 30 ESE FDY FNT 30 NE PLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PGO 40 NW PGO 35 SSW TUL 45 NE OKC 30 S END CSM 55 ENE P07 25 WSW FST 20 ESE LAA 25 SSE BFF 15 SSW GCC 25 SW 3HT 35 SSE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 SSE HVR 40 W GDV 25 WSW Y22 9V9 30 NE STJ 40 NE SDF 30 SSW LOZ 40 SSE TYS 10 NW GAD 20 NNW GWO 30 E PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ELP 45 ENE DMN 25 NW TCS 45 N GNT 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 65 NE SVE 45 W WMC 25 ENE WMC 35 WSW OWY 35 NW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 15 N EFK 15 SE RUT 30 S POU 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 25 WSW FAR 30 W BJI 25 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OH VALLEY/WRN PA AND NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US WITH SEVERAL S/WVS AFFECTING AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSES NRN ROCKIES. IN SRN BRANCH MID LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM WILL SHIFT INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS BY EARLY TONIGHT. A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO NRN LWR MI WSWWD TO MO/IA BORDER WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN OH WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY/PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY. CURRENT SEVERE MCS AR/MO BORDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CROSSES MS RIVER. OUTFLOW FROM MCS EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN OK AND WILL TEND TO RETURN NWD INTO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LINE SHOULD MIX EWD AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM SWRN CORNER KS SWD THRU TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN OH VALLEY/WRN NY PA... ...REF MCD 1495... VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WRN OH. WITH LITTLE CAP..EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL ENHANCE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ALONG WITH THE 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING...HELICITIES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON...BUT PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...PLAINS... RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX TO SD AS BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE SRN PLAINS WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH ENHANCED MID/UPPER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH ENTERING SRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG/E OF DRY LINE AND VICINITY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL RETURN NWD INTO SRN KS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE BOTH THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES WITH EXPECTED VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE. PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE MAY BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK IF THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER N WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF NRN ROCKIES TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO SERN MT AND SPREAD E/SEWD THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK THUS SEVERE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELL/PULSE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS. ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY... ...REF MCD 1496 AND 1497 HAVE EXPANDED THE RISK AREA EWD AS THE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY. WITH SUCH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL PLOWS THRU THE HIGH INSTABILITY. DEVELOPING STORMS CENTRAL IL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WIND MAX ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD AND BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG ..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:22:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:22:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407042023.i64KNg125636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042016 SWODY1 SPC AC 042014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MSS 35 S UCA 20 NNE HGR 35 NNE SSU 50 ESE LOZ 30 E CHA 15 WNW GAD 20 NNW GWO 35 ESE PGO 50 SSW TUL 30 S END 10 NE CSM 60 NE P07 25 WSW FST 25 N TCC ALS 25 N CYS 20 S GCC 25 SW 3HT 40 SSE GTF 35 ENE GTF 65 E HVR 35 WNW Y22 35 SSE FSD 20 ENE P35 10 SSW MTO 25 SW ZZV 30 SW CAK 20 W FNT 40 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 45 E DUG 25 S TCS 20 SSW ONM 35 NE GNT 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 75 SE 4LW 45 W WMC 25 NNW WMC 50 WNW OWY 45 WNW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 25 WSW FAR 30 W BJI 25 E INL ...CONT... 15 N EFK 10 WSW RUT 25 S PSF 10 E ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MID MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS NEB / KS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MT SEWD INTO CO...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN NEB / ERN CO / KS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD / SEWD WITH TIME INTO WRN SD / NEB / KS...IN ADDITION TO NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS / NEB...WHERE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT BENEATH GENERALLY SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...WITH THREAT PERHAPS TRENDING TOWARD PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH BOWING / MCS-TYPE ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. ...ERN OH / WRN PA / WRN NY / WV... STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN LOWER MI SEWD ACROSS ERN OH / WRN PA INTO WV...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME ACROSS WRN PA / WRN NY...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING...STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...MID MS / TN / LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... BOWING MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM...WHILE STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SERN IL AS THEY APPROACH SWRN IND. WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH MODERATE / WLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEYS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM ATTM...AND SHOULD DEVELOP SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF W TX / THE PANHANDLE REGION AND PERHAPS WRN OK WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 03:01:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 22:01:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407050303.i65338101227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050103 SWODY1 SPC AC 050100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LWD IRK 45 ENE JEF 40 NW POF 25 WSW ARG 35 NNE LIT 20 N HOT 15 NNE PGO 50 SSW TUL 25 NNW OKC 25 S CSM CDS 35 ENE PVW 15 SSE AMA 25 ESE EHA 15 SSW LAA 35 N LHX LIC 25 ESE AKO 40 E SNY 25 E CDR 10 E 81V 40 NNW REJ 20 NNW Y22 25 NW HON 25 S FSD 55 SW FOD 25 N LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EFK 10 WSW RUT 25 S PSF 10 E ISP ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 35 SE ELP 20 SW ROW 55 SSE LVS 55 SSW ALS 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 75 SE 4LW 45 W WMC 25 NNW WMC 50 WNW OWY 45 WNW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 45 SSE FAR BRD 85 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS... MESOANALYSIS AND 00 UTC SOUNDINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW TWO MAIN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS NEB AND THE OTHER ACROSS KS AND NRN OK EWD INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. DOMINANT MCS SHOULD EVOLVE OVER CNTRL/SRN KS THIS EVENING. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING OUT OF CO AND NEWD FROM OK. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS-NRN OK-SWRN MO-NWRN AR AND THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD ALONG SRN EDGE OF COLD POOLS INTO THE 40 KT SWLY LLJ. AT THE SAME TIME... LEADING EDGE OF THE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE GIVEN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SEGMENTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS/S MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SWRN MO...NERN OK AND NWRN AR. OTHER TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED. EVENING RAOB/PROFILER/VWP ANALYSIS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MT/WY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NEB ALONG A WEAK FRONT WHERE A PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS OBSERVED. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE MO VLY AND MAY PERSIST INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN PLAINS... ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL TO JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD ACROSS KS...THE TX PNHDL AND OK THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MAY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO WRN OK WHERE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL EXIST. FARTHER S...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING. UNTIL THEN...ANY TSTM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...WRN NY INTO THE CAROLINAS... BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ALONG TAIL END OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD. STRONGEST WLY FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...SERN STATES... WEAKENING TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/EARLY DAY DERECHO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NWRN GA AND ERN AL. THESE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..RACY.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 05:53:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 00:53:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407050554.i655s3114570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050550 SWODY1 SPC AC 050547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BNA TBN 25 SSW END 35 WSW CSM 65 NE AMA 20 NNW GCK 35 NNE AKO 40 ENE CYS 25 NNE AIA 45 SSE 9V9 40 SW OTG 30 NE CID 40 SSE CGX 25 ESE DAY 35 NNW JKL 50 NNW CSV 30 ESE BNA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W 3B1 10 NE PSF 25 NW MSV 25 SSE ROC 35 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N OLF 15 S SDY 40 NE Y22 35 N ABR 50 WSW DLH 20 SSW IMT 10 NNE MKG 10 ESE LAN 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 45 E AUS 30 NNE TXK 30 SSE MLC 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 35 SSW HOB 20 ESE TCC 50 S RTN 40 NNE INW 40 NE LAS 30 NW DRA 60 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 SE FAT 30 NNW FAT 40 ENE SCK 20 NW RNO 50 E U31 40 SSW DPG 50 SE SLC 40 ENE EVW 55 E SUN 55 ESE S80 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND VT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM...THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING ENEWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS NOW...WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS THE MO VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY AS NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND WAVE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY AND THE OH VLY MONDAY EVENING. TAIL END OF THE SAME FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF MO AND OK BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... COMPLICATED FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED AND MONDAY/S FORECAST SCENARIOS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OWING TO IMPACTS OF ONGOING MCS/S. MESOSCALE VORT CENTER WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING MCS OVER KS EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN IMPULSE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ FEEDING UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PORTIONS OF ANY ONGOING MCS/S THAT MOVE ENEWD INTO IA...IL AND IND THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY IN WAKE OF MCS/S/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG FROM NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION OR REGENERATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW OF 40 KTS IN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSTREAM...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE AND ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. AS THE CAP IS BREACHED...OWING TO HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE MARGINAL...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRUCTURES TRENDING TOWARD MORE LINE SEGMENTS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB...KS AND INTO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FINALLY...FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PASSING OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE EARLY IN THE DAY...HOWEVER...MAY TEND TO KEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE WEAK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INITIATION. GIVEN TSTMS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...UPSTATE NY INTO VT... BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WARM MOIST AIR MASS TRANSLATES NEWD. DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT IN WAKE OF WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN SERN CANADA AND MOVE EWD INTO NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUT...INCREASING WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 13:00:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 08:00:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407051301.i65D13108401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051258 SWODY1 SPC AC 051256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CDS 30 NW CDS 60 NE AMA 25 WSW GCK 30 WNW GLD 30 W SNY 20 ENE BFF 45 ENE AIA 55 SSE 9V9 30 WSW SPW 25 W DBQ 30 WNW FWA 20 W ZZV 35 NNW CRW 35 SSW CRW 30 SW 5I3 15 S BWG 30 ESE UNO 35 NNW FYV 30 W OKC 25 E CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W 3B1 25 N BAF 25 SW POU 15 NW AVP 15 ENE ELM 15 W SYR 25 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP 35 WSW CLL 40 ESE PRX 25 E DUA 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 35 SSW HOB 20 ESE TCC 50 S RTN 40 NNE INW 35 NE LAS 45 W DRA 60 NNW NID 30 SE FAT 30 NNW FAT 45 NE SCK 30 WSW RNO 15 NE RNO 50 E U31 40 SSW DPG 45 SE SLC 20 E EVW 45 N EVW 55 E SUN 55 ESE S80 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 N OLF 15 S SDY 40 NE Y22 40 NNE ABR 55 SW DLH 20 SSW IMT TVC 30 NNE MBS 40 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...OH VALLEY... SEVERAL BOW ECHOES ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO ATTM. THIS CLUSTER IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CREATING STRONG DEEP SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN IL REACHING SRN IND LATE THIS MORNING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER BOW ECHOES GIVEN STORM MOTIONS TO THE EAST AT 40 TO 50 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINEAR MCS WILL REGENERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE UNEVEN TERRAIN AND LESSENING INSTABILITY SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACROSS EITHER ERN KS OR WRN MO. ALTHOUGH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...40 TO 45 KT AT 500 MB WILL CREATE STRONG ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EWD TODAY CAUSING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL AID THE INITIATION OF HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT...MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NW KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO DRIVING AN MCS ACROSS WRN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN KS THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BECOME MORE SFC-BASED IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS WCNTRL KS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS CONSIDERING THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS THE MCS MATURES THIS EVENING...MOVING SSEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO NRN OK AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...NORTHEAST STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EWD TODAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL AID STORM INITIATION ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD SETUP ACROSS ERN NY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND THIS WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 16:24:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 11:24:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407051624.i65GOk108580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051622 SWODY1 SPC AC 051620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CDS 30 NW CDS 60 NE AMA 25 WSW GCK 30 WNW GLD 30 W SNY 20 ENE BFF 45 ENE AIA 55 SSE 9V9 30 WSW SPW 25 W DBQ 30 WNW FWA 20 W ZZV 35 NNW CRW 35 SSW CRW 30 SW 5I3 15 S BWG 30 ESE UNO 35 NNW FYV 30 W OKC 25 E CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W 3B1 25 N BAF 25 SW POU 30 E AVP 15 NW BGM 10 WNW SYR 25 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM 30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT 55 NNE SAC 35 S SVE 15 NNW RNO 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 55 WSW DPG 35 N PUC 15 NE VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS 25 NNW GGG 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO 25 ENE MLC 15 E ADM 25 NNW BWD 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL U.S. INTO OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR NERN U.S.... ....MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... TROUGH THAT EJECTED FROM SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE CLOSED SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM SERN NEB INTO IA. REMNANT MCS FROM AN ACTIVE SEVERE NIGHT ACROSS PLAINS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN IL. THE MDT WLY FLOW S OF LOW CENTER HAS SPREAD AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EWD INTO WRN OH VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS AOA 70F...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG COMMON ACROSS MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. 12Z ETA/ETAKF MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER IA AND SE INTO IL. THIS IS CONDITIONAL ...DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY THE AIR MASS THIS AREA CAN RECOVER FROM CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY. WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND 25-30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E AND SE OF LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL. ONGOING MCS SRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG HEATING ENHANCES CURRENTLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO. ...CENTRL AND SRN PLAINS... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH MOST IMPORTANT UPPER FEATURE THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPIDITY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CAP IS A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY...THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON IN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY AND E OF N/S DRY LINE WRN KS TO SWRN TX. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK COUPLED WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE 12Z ETA THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN MCS DROPPING SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS WRN KS INTO NRN OK AS S/WV TROUGH/MID LEVEL WIND MAX ENTERS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NE/NERN CO WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD INTO A 20-30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN NEXT OUTLOOK IF THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LIKELY. ...NERN U.S... THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD LE/LO WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RATHER WARM LAPSE RATES...LESS THAN 6C/KM...AND ABOUT 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A LOW END WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:32:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:32:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407052033.i65KX7126336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052023 SWODY1 SPC AC 052020 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE LTS 10 WSW CDS LBL LAA 40 E FCL BFF 35 NW BBW OFK 30 W RST LSE CGX 20 W CMH 15 SSE EKN 25 SSE PHL 10 ENE ORF 10 S SPA 15 SW CHA 20 NNE MSL 30 WSW BWG TUL 25 SSE LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML ORH 25 WNW GON 25 S POU 25 ENE AVP 40 ENE BGM 30 E MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM 30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT RBL MHS SVE 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 DPG 30 S EVW 40 N VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS TYR 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO MLC SPS ABI 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN APPALACHIANS AND VA/MD TIDEWATER... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN NY...NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONUS EXCEPT GULF COAST AND SWRN STATES. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA AREA -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 06/12Z. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER SERN MT/NERN WY SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH -- CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER ERN GREAT LAKES...SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR NEW ENGLAND COAST BY END OF PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED LOW OVER S-CENTRAL IA...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD DBQ-MSN AREA BY 06/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SWRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO BECOMING STATIONARY OVER ERN KS/NEB BORDER AREA...THEN WNWWD ACROSS MCK/IML REGION INTO ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE OVER SRN NEB PANHANDLE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT...AND SEWD ACROSS MOST OF IA AND NRN MO. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM WRN NEB LOW SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO AND TX/NM BORDER REGION. ALSO...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM ONGOING KY MCS WSWWD ACROSS MO OZARKS TO SERN KS. NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCS FROM MCS NWWD OVER N-CENTRAL IL THEN WWD ACROSS SRN IA...BECOMING DIFFUSE WWD TOWARD COLD FRONT. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... TSTMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CYS RIDGE...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS CO/NEB. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS. REF SPC WW 563 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. THIS ACTIVITY IS REASONABLY PROGGED BY ETA MODEL TO EVOLVE INTO MCS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING NRN OK BY END OF PERIOD. DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPORADIC HAIL ALSO ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED/CONCENTRATED WIND PROBABILITIES IS DRAWN. ...OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TIDEWATER... REF SPC WWS 562/564 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION OVER KY/INDIANA/TN...ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. MOIST AND DIABATICALLY HEATED INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR E AS MOUNTAINS OF ERN KY...SRN WV AND ERN TN. SRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD SOMEWHAT...INTO HIGHER THETAE OF ERN TN...RESULTING IN NET SEWD TURN. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXTENDS EWD TOWARD VA/MD TIDEWATER REGION AMIDST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...OZARKS REGION... INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION -- MOVING THROUGH LAYER OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO -- HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION... SFC BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS CAPE NEARLY GONE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...AS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS YIELDS VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. SGF HODOGRAPH...AVAILABLE VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-40 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...AND AROUND 150 J/KG SRH...WITH SLIGHT VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED LOCALLY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NEAR WHICH OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MAXIMIZED. ...IA AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... ARC OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF MIDLEVEL VORTEX...MAINLY FROM IA AND EXTREME NRN MO EWD TO NWRN IL AND SERN WI. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND THREAT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED CLEARING THIS REGION...BEHIND EARLY MCS AND ON BOTH SIDES OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW -- E THROUGH NE OF SFC LOW...AMIDST STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING REDUCES SBCAPE. ...NERN CONUS... MARGINAL SLGT RISK AREA WITH PRINCIPAL THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND...AND AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A TORNADO OR TWO. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...IN VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW -- WITH GREATEST SLY COMPONENT -- WILL REMAIN E OF HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-200 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID-UPPER 60S F...LOW LCL AND WEAK CAPPING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT -- ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC IN MOST AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET AS MAIN CONVECTIVE FORCING REGIME MOVES INTO MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS AND AS SFC COOLING STABILIZES MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY FROM COAST. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:01:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:01:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407060102.i6612H109292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060059 SWODY1 SPC AC 060057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE END 20 WNW DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSW MCK 20 SW EAR 30 SW BIE 40 SSE TOP 25 NW JLN 25 E BVO 25 SSE PNC 15 SSE END. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MMO 35 S MTO 20 SW HOP 25 E MKL 30 SW JBR 35 NW FSM 20 NNE FSI 20 SW LTS 25 NNE PVW 20 SE EHA 20 W LAA 15 NNW LHX 45 E LIC 30 WSW LBF 30 W VTN 40 NNE VTN 25 S MHE 10 SE SUX 50 ENE OMA 25 W DSM 45 NNE DSM 15 SW MCW 15 SSW RST 50 W LNR 15 SSE RFD 45 SE MMO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM 30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT RBL MHS SVE 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 DPG 30 S EVW 40 N VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS TYR 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO MLC SPS ABI 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SCNTRL NEB...MUCH OF KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY... ...CNTRL PLAINS... SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS /75 MPH/ BEING REPORTED NEAR GOODLAND AROUND 0020 UTC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS/ MESOANALYSIS DEPICT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS KS AND NRN OK. GIVEN GLANCING AFFECT OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE ORGANIZED MCS IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN TO TURN SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DCAPE VALUES ARE GREATER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF UPPER SUPPORT...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS MAY OCCUR IN A WIDE SWATH ACROSS KS. SWD EXTENT OF MDT RISK IS UNCERTAIN. 18 UTC ETA SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL DIVE SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK. SINCE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE MORE EWD THROUGH NEB AND IA...FEEL THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL PLAN TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND THROUGH KS AND NRN OK. AS THE CASE THE PAST THREE NIGHTS...EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISKS ARE LIKELY TO END UP A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FARTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. WILL PLAN FOR THE MCS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO BY 12 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED RECENTLY JUST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS THE AFFECT STRONG IA MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE KEEPING LOWER INSTABILITY NEAR THE MO RVR...BUT NLY TO NWLY FLOW INTO THE 1007 SURFACE LOW VCNTY NERN IA IS CAUSING A DEGREE OF SURFACE DIVERGENCE. PRIND THAT THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A SMALLER MCS AND MOVE SSEWD INTO SERN NEB AND NERN KS. ...UPPER MS VLY... ARC OF TSTMS PERSIST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW VCNTY NERN IA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN IL AND SWRN WI. STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL IL AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...NERN STATES... TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM ERN NY JUST AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST EXPECTED. ...WRN CAROLINAS... IT APPEARS THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH MID EVENING WITH POTENTIAL ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 05:50:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 00:50:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407060551.i665pA129346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060548 SWODY1 SPC AC 060547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 40 N LBE 40 NNW SSU 25 SE TYS 25 W GAD 35 SW JAN ESF 50 ESE BWD 50 SE MAF 25 SW HOB 35 SSE LVS 40 SW COS 20 S FCL 35 W AKO 40 SSE LIC 40 SE LAA 45 NNE GAG 50 S OJC 20 ESE UIN CGX 40 NE MKG 15 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MRF 30 ESE GDP 15 SW ROW 25 W 4CR 45 SSE GNT 20 SSW GUP 75 N INW 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT 50 SSE RBL 40 ESE RBL 35 NNW RNO 10 WNW NFL 10 E U31 55 WSW DPG 35 N PUC 15 NE VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 35 SE RHI 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ART 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VLY... SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH KS IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED FROM SWRN MO INTO CNTRL OK BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND COULD BE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH AR...SRN MO AND PERHAPS EXTREME NERN TX BEFORE SLOWING DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL HEAT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TSTMS DURING THE DAY... HOWEVER...AND TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY OUTFLOWS. THIS MAY SUSTAIN A HIGH WIND AND HAIL THREAT SEWD INTO THE MS DELTA AND NRN LA AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ARC NWWD ACROSS N TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EXACT POSITION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WELL WWD INTO NM AND SERN CO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO N TX AS WELL. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY ELY FLOW BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER PLAINS. OTHERWISE...A POTENTIAL MCS OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND ROLL SEWD INTO PARTS OF N TX TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...MID MS VLY TO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY REGION... AS SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VLY. MAIN CONFLUENCE ZONE SHOULD SHIFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...LIKELY SITUATED FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO IND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG/SE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THIS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN INCREASINGLY WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TSTM CLUSTER TO FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD THE LENGTH OF THE OH VLY INTO PERHAPS ERN OH/KY AREA OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. A MDT RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE OH VLY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER OH VLY... AN ARC OF TSTMS NOW CROSSING THE CHICAGO AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF CLEARING IN WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS... BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS...OR INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS. GIVEN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IN FACT...ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOPS VCNTY RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE UPPER OH VLY NWWD TO ONTARIO. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 13:07:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 08:07:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407061308.i66D88100848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061305 SWODY1 SPC AC 061303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 35 WSW LUL 15 E BPT 45 SSE CLL 45 E JCT 60 SSE MAF 20 N INK 60 NNE ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 30 ENE COS 40 NNE LHX 45 SSE LAA 35 NNE CSM 35 SSW TUL 15 W VIH 35 NE PIA 15 E MKG 40 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MRF 15 N GDP 45 NNE ALM 70 N INW 50 NE LAS 70 W DRA 50 NNW NID 50 N BFL 30 N MER 45 SSE RBL 50 WSW SVE 35 SE SVE 15 NW NFL 10 ENE U31 45 NNW PUC 45 WNW BFF 60 WNW CDR 20 S 81V 40 ENE SHR 40 W MQM 25 SE GEG 30 W GEG 30 E SEA 25 N SEA 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SW SDY 30 ENE DIK 35 N AXN 50 NNW EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...E TX/ARKLATEX... A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...SOME REGENERATION WITH THE LINE MAY OCCUR. A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE LINE POSSIBLY REACHING EAST TX. ...W TX/NCNTRL TX... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY STALL OUT. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F MAINLY SW OF THIS BOUNDARY. TWO AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST APPEARS TO BE IN THE MTNS OF NE NM AND THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS NE NM... POSSIBLY REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...TRACKING SEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NW TX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS WCNTRL TX. ...OH AND TN VALLEYS... A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NE MO AND WRN IL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT TRACKS ENEWD TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...A HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS IND INTO ERN OH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NRN END OF THE CLUSTER MAY ALSO AFFECT SRN LOWER MI WITH A WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN MO EXTENDING NEWD TO AROUND ST. LOUIS. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TODAY ALONG THE AXIS...NEW STORMS MAY INITIATE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 KT AND THIS WILL FAVOR A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT. CONSIDERING THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...A COLD POOL MAY ORGANIZE WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPANDING SEWD ACROSS KY AND TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 16:18:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 11:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407061619.i66GJ6120799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061613 SWODY1 SPC AC 061611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HUF 15 NNE DNV SBN 20 NW AZO 20 SE GRR 15 W LAN 30 ESE LAN DTW 35 NE FDY 35 SW CMH 30 NE LEX 25 SW LEX 40 N BWG 20 SSW OWB 25 WNW EVV 25 SW HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 10 ENE MEI 40 ENE LFK 20 NW CLL 45 NW AUS 40 SE MAF 20 N INK 60 NNE ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 35 SSW LIC 40 NNE LHX 45 SSE LAA 35 NNE CSM 35 SSW TUL 15 W VIH 35 NE PIA 15 E MKG 40 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 30 NNW ALM 10 SW SOW 35 NW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL 30 SW SVE 40 ESE SVE 10 NW NFL 15 E U31 30 N U24 30 SW CAG 50 SE DGW AIA 25 W LBF 25 WNW HLC 50 ENE DDC 10 NW ICT 15 NE EMP 30 N FNB 20 E OMA 30 NNW SUX 15 NW FSD 40 E ATY 10 SSE STC 65 NNE EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW ISN 20 WNW MLS 30 ESE COD 30 W MQM 20 E S80 40 WNW GEG 15 ESE 4OM 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS WWD ACROSS MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS MID-SUMMER TROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY MOVING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT WITH BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN WI THIS AM WILL MOVE INTO LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MCS IN PLAINS HAS ABOUT DISSIPATED AS IT CROSSED MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED STRONG HEATING ACROSS OH VALLEY MUCH OF AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO LOW 70S RESULTING IN MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR INITIALLY VICINITY LWR OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS IS LOCATED. REF MCD 1542. DURING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP NRN OH VALLEY INTO LWR MI AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WIND MAX. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DEVELOPING BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING BRIEF TORNADOS AND ENHANCED WIND AND HAIL THREAT. MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INDIANA/SRN LWR MI INTO WRN OH WHERE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...SRN PLAINS... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS INTO N TX WWD TO ERN NM WITH COLD FRONT STILL DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN KS WWD TO ROCKIES. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY STALLS AND FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE INTO ERN NM. WITH FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN NM/SERN CO AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. LOCAL HAIL MODEL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. EVEN WITH EXPECTED HIGH BASES...ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...LWR MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY... SHEAR IS WEAKER THIS AREA BUT WITH THE STRONG HEATING AND HIGH INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON...MORE PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A WEAK MVC OVER WRN AL ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT MCS NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS AR INTO N TX COULD FOCUS MORE LOCALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:17:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:17:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407062018.i66KI3129524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062013 SWODY1 SPC AC 062011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SLO 15 NNE DNV SBN 20 NW AZO GRR 30 WSW MBS FNT DTW FDY 35 SE DAY 30 NE LEX 25 SW LEX 40 N BWG 20 SSW OWB 30 ENE MDH 30 NNW SLO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 10 ENE MEI JAN 40 N POE TPL SJT HOB ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 35 SSW LIC LAA CSM 40 W MKO HRO VIH PIA 10 SE MBL 25 NNE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP VCT SAT DRT ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 30 NNW ALM 10 SW SOW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL SVE 10 NW NFL U31 U24 CAG 50 SE DGW BFF 45 NE LAA 40 S DDC ICT OJC P35 ALO MKT 10 SSE STC 65 NNE EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW ISN 20 WNW MLS 30 ESE COD 30 W MQM 20 E S80 40 WNW GEG 15 ESE 4OM 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...INDIANA...ERN IL...NRN KY...WRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM OH/MI SWWD TO ARKLATEX THEN WWD TO SRN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS CONUS. CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS MID MS VALLEY. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/REINFORCED SRN STREAM TROUGH -- INDICATED FROM OZARK REGION SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD TO MID TN...NRN MS AND NRN LA BY 07/12Z. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL VORTICITY ELEMENT -- PROBABLY STRONGEST IN MIDLEVELS -- MOVING NEWD FROM NERN MO ACROSS EXTREME SERN IA. BEING MESOBETA SCALE...THIS FEATURE IS POORLY RESOLVED BY MODELS BUT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS LM AND INTO WRN LOWER MI TONIGHT. AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER NRN LM IS FARTHER W THAN 12Z ETA/AVN AND CLOSER TO NGM PROGS. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN-MOST LOWER MI THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS WARM FRONT NOW OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI APCHS LH. SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS IA/MO/OK...STALLING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DRAWN FROM SERN OK/SWRN AR SWWD ACROSS DFW AREA THEN WNWWD PAST LBB INTO E-CENTRAL NM...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. ...OH VALLEY...CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST CONCENTRATION/MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE STILL APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...WHERE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF REMAINS OF MORNING MCS. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT ALSO IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO ATTM IS FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM NRN/CENTRAL IL TOWARD WRN INDIANA AND SWRN LOWER MI...THEN SPREAD/MOVE EWD AND NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER IL/ INDIANA/LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO OH. STRONGEST FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN N OF OH RIVER. BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW -- SAMPLED ATTM BY REGIONAL VWP DATA AND PROGGED BY MODELS -- SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COUNTERACT SFC WLY COMPONENT IN ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EXISTS OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI -- PARTICULARLY INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE SFC WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN MOST STRONGLY BACKED. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH NEARLY 100 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER. ...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN/MS... REF SPC WWS 578/579 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER WEAK CAP AND LARGE NUMBER OF TSTMS SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL EVENTS. ...SRN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... 18Z AMA RAOB SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINING IN PLACE...AND CAPPING MAY CONSIDERABLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE E OF MOUNTAINS ACROSS SRN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FORMING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND MOVES SEWD INVOF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR OK MCS. CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR SFC FRONT...ENHANCING UPSLOPE LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 150-250 J/KG SRH POSSIBLE FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAKNESS OF AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS ALOFT. MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL NM TO AROUND 3000 J/KG PORTIONS NW TX. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:03:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:03:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407070103.i6713q103524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070100 SWODY1 SPC AC 070058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW JHW 40 SW MGW 15 NE TRI 15 WSW HSS GAD 45 NW GWO 40 N POF 10 S CGX 30 NW MBS 80 E OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MAF 20 NE CNM 20 WNW ROW 40 SSW LVS 40 E LVS 10 NNE CVS 35 W CDS 20 NE FSI 25 W ADM MWL BWD 30 N SJT 35 NW MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 20 WNW ALM 10 SW SOW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL SVE 10 NW NFL U31 U24 45 NNW ALS 40 W COS 25 SSW LIC 55 N CAO 30 NW CSM 25 ENE TUL 45 NNE JLN 25 SSE IRK 20 NW DBQ 20 S RST 25 NNW RST 45 NNW GRB 45 ESE ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 50 WNW MRB 35 SSE PSK 20 E SPA AGS SSI ...CONT... 40 SSE GPT 45 WNW ESF 20 E JCT 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/TN VLYS NWD TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ...UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MS/TN VLYS... SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN FOCUSING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MS/TN/OH VLYS. SOLID LINE OF TSTMS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN TN AND NERN AL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN KY/SRN WV AND ERN TN. FARTHER NORTH...MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW VCNTY CHICAGO WITH CONFLUENT AXIS SWD INTO NWRN IND AND ERN IL. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZED TODAY...BUT 00 UTC DETROIT SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED MLCAPE VALUES OF 756 J/KG. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREAD EWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT A SUPERCELL...BUT THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WINDS... ESPECIALLY AS THE WIND PROFILES INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLD TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINLY SHIFTED INTO ONTARIO. ...AR WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS DOMINATED THE PORTION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AR INTO OK THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP AND THE 00 UTC NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP AND 3500 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/NWRN TX...ANY ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT ENEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN OK IN CASE TSTMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. EVEN IF THEY DO...SEVERE THREATS MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...A MCS IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN NM INTO AREAS VCNTY MIDLAND NWD. MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH TIME AND GIVEN THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY/INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL RESIDE ACROSS WCNTRL TX...TSTMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WIND. FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN SERN NM. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 05:44:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 00:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407070545.i675j2123815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070542 SWODY1 SPC AC 070540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW OFK 30 N OMA 10 ESE JEF 30 NW UNO 15 ESE HRO 25 NNE MKO 45 ENE DDC 45 SW EAR 40 WNW BBW 30 ESE ANW 20 NNW OFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MSS 30 ENE BGM 30 E CXY SSU BKW HTS ZZV 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 15 SSW BIS 45 NNE PHP 20 NNW RAP 45 S GCC 30 ESE SHR 30 SSE BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 NW 3HT 65 E HVR 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 20 ESE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 50 SSE BYI 35 W IDA 50 NE S80 40 N EPH 40 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 40 NNE VTN 35 E SUX 10 E CGI 40 NE EVV 15 S LAF 30 WNW MMO 20 NNE MSN 25 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW NOW OVER MN WILL ANCHOR OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND. TO THE WEST...POWERFUL UPPER WAVE VCNTY BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH ASSOCIATED 100 KT H25 JET WILL TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN/ERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION AND STALLING ACROSS THE OZARKS. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WRN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MT...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT AT LEAST MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS INTO NERN WY AND SCNTRL-ERN MT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...MAGNITUDE OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. SLY LLJ WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TSTM CLUSTERS INTO PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ...CNTRL PLAINS... WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY SITUATED FROM SRN NEB ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AS WELL AND THE CAP SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME. SEVERAL SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MORE ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS THE SLY LLJ INCREASES NORMAL TO THE FRONT. VERTICAL/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER TSTMS. IF MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS FORM THAN EXPECTED...A FEW TSTMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. FUTURE OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER DEFINE THE SURFACE BASED POSSIBILITIES. ...UPPER OH VLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREATS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON INFLUENCES OF CURRENT TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP...STRONGER POSSIBILITIES WILL EXIST FOR TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY TEND TO BOW IN THE WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME. OTHERWISE...POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREATS MINIMAL. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. ...CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ERN VA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN OH VLY TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS AS LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT INVERTED-V STRUCTURES. IF THE COVERAGE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE GREATER...FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PARTS OF THE REGION TO A SLGT RISK. ...ERN NM... TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...THE STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER TSTMS...DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NOT VENTURE TOO FAR EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 12:52:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 07:52:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407071253.i67Crg122914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071250 SWODY1 SPC AC 071249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW FYV 35 WNW BVO 35 WSW SLN 50 SSW EAR 20 SSW BBW 20 NW BUB 40 WNW OFK 10 E OMA 45 NE SZL 30 SW JEF 20 SE SGF 40 NNW FYV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 35 WNW ALB 20 WSW ABE 30 N CHO 15 ENE BKW 20 NE HTS 25 NNW ZZV 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 40 NE COD 35 NW BIL 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 20 ESE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 50 SSE BYI 35 W IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 35 ENE SUX 25 NNW IRK 40 NW CGI 15 ENE CGI 40 NE EVV 15 S LAF 30 WNW MMO 20 NNE MSN 25 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE SWRN MTNS OF MT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE LOW-ELEVATIONS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT. TEMPS IN THE 80S F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE GGW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BY 21Z TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 60 KT PUNCHES EWD INTO MT. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND LCLS ABOVE 700 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...CNTRL PLAINS/WRN OZARKS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TODAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM WRN NEB EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN KS BY 00Z. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING...STRONG LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE...DEVELOPING INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AFTER DARK. MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NW AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS NEB AND NE KS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIALLY STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE SEWD AND INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIKELY EARLY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS AN MCS GETS GOING AFTER DARK. THE TRACK OF THE MCS WILL LIKELY PARALLEL THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TAKING IT ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG LIFT FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED STORMS TO INITIATE BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH AND WV. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO PA AND NY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT ILN SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...ERN NM/W TX... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS SE NM WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. TEMPS AROUND 100 F THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SE NM AND W TX. AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 20 KT SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...NC/VA... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CAROLINAS. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORM INITIATION APPEARS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...THE INSTABILITY WOULD HELP STRONG UPDRAFT FORMATION AND A BRIEF MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 16:47:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 11:47:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407071647.i67Glq104944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071645 SWODY1 SPC AC 071644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 30 N COD 20 WSW 3HT 35 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW JLN 40 NNE ICT 35 S HLC 25 SSE MCK 15 E LBF 45 S ANW 40 WNW OFK 10 E OMA 45 NE SZL 30 SW JEF 20 ESE SGF 25 SW JLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 35 WNW ALB 25 NW ABE 25 WNW SBY ECG 30 NNE EWN 25 SSE RDU 25 E GSO 20 WSW LYH 20 N SSU 25 E CRW 20 S UNI 25 NW ZZV 15 NNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON ...CONT... 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 45 W FOD 35 SSE OTM 40 NW CGI 15 ENE CGI 20 SSE BMG 25 N IND 30 S CGX 15 NE MKE 15 SE APN ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 35 SSE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 45 S BYI 60 WNW IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS/ERN NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD ACROSS PA/NY.... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN WA/SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT AND SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA BASED ON A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT...WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN A BAND ALONG THE PRIMARY SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MT...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND SUPERCELLS WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC TO NY/PA... A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE LAKE MI VICINITY...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EJECTING NEWD...THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF WHICH IS NOW MOVING OVER SE OH. MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL NY/PA IS CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR MOIST NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM NRN WV TO WRN PA WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING VORT MAX OVER SE OH...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FARTHER W FROM SE LOWER MI TO WRN OH. 30-45 KT LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER E AND S...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ FROM SE PA SWD ACROSS ERN VA TO NC WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 30-40 KT FLOW AROUND 700 MB ACROSS THIS AREA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH THIS CONVECTION IS BASED ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZATION. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...BASED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ACROSS ERN NEB/ERN KS AND WRN MO OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS OK HAVE NOW MOVED EWD INTO AR. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL APPEARS LIMITED. HOWEVER...WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG/...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WITH WET MICROBURSTS. ...SE GA SWD TO CENTRAL FL... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM SE GA SWD INTO CENTRAL FL WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 90 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TBW AND JAX SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 7 C/KM LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9 C. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEAK OUTFLOWS WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OVER THE FL W COAST...AND WITHIN A CUMULUS CONGESTUS AREA ACROSS SE GA. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 20:11:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 15:11:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407072011.i67KBx104223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072007 SWODY1 SPC AC 072005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 30 N COD 20 WSW 3HT 35 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UMN 40 NW P28 30 W LBF MHN 35 ENE BUB 50 N SZL 30 SW JEF 15 ESE SGF UMN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PBG ALB TTN 25 WNW SBY ECG 30 NNE EWN 25 SSE RDU 40 NNW GSO EKN PIT ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON ...CONT... 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 45 W FOD 35 SSE OTM 40 NW CGI 10 SSW PAH 20 S OWB 40 SSE MIE 40 NNW FWA 30 NE MKG 15 SE APN ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 35 SSE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 45 S BYI 60 WNW IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC AND PIEDMONT REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA...FEATURING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER GREAT LAKES AND OVER BC. ERN TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY CYCLONE WHOSE CENTER WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS LS AND NRN LH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET MAX WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO WRN PORTION MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 08/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM LH ACROSS SERN INDIANA TO SRN MO -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND LE...WHILE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM WRN KY ACROSS SRN MO. WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NERN KS...NWRN MO...AND NEB AS WARM FRONT...EXCEPT WHERE ALTERED ON MESOBETA SCALE BY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN AND NEAR WW 587. FRONT CONTINUES AS WAVY/STATIONARY BOUNDARY NWWD THROUGH BLACK HILLS REGION INTO ERN MT...TO CYCLONE OVE SWRN SASK. COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED SWWD FRM SASK LOW OVER W-CENTRAL MT...AND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SASK CYCLONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP/PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW OVER SRN BC THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS WA/ID/NWRN MT...THROUGH TONIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... FROM NC TO ERN PA REF SPC WW 586 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE FARTHER EWD TOWARD TIDEWATER AND ATLANTIC COAST...MOVING INTO VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. FARTHER N CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AMIDST WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...BTU ALSO WEAK CAPPING. 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER PORTIONS NY AND CENTRAL PA SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY... INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE MODE -- ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN NEB -- IS EVOLVING INTO SFC-BASED SEVERE THREAT FROM THERE INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN KS. THIS IN TURN COULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS...LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAILSTONES...AND DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. REF SPC WW 587 AND ATTENDANT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN TWO MODES... 1. SFC BASED SUPERCELL/BOW MODES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INVOF WARM FRONT NWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NEB...AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. 2. NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AND PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LEADING EDGE OF PLUME OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT...CORRESPONDING CLOSELY WITH SFC FRONTAL LOCATION AND WITH A RAPIDLY ENLARGING SWATH OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. POCKETS OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SFC MOISTURE ARE ANALYZED ACROSS ERN MT AMIDST CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING. EXPECT SHEAR PROFILES TO INCREASE AS UPPER LOW APCHS...BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND CONVECTIVE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST...35-45 KT LLJ ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL/ERN TX... REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL IN LOWER MS VALLEY AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS...MINOR DAMAGE AND MARGINAL HAIL ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION SWWD OVER MS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX -- APPARENT MVC -- MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TSTMS FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL...N-CENTRAL AND ERN TX...IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY NOW PRESENT OVER DFW AREA. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...SRN GA AND PENINSULAR FL... SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS VARIOUS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO INTERSECT ACROSS HIS REGION...LOCALLY MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE/LIFT. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET WITH UPPER 80S/90S F SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN 70S CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 00Z WHEN COMBINATION OF EXPANDING/MERGED OUTFLOWS AND WEAKENING INSOLATION RESULT IN STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 01:08:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 20:08:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407080109.i68195119363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080106 SWODY1 SPC AC 080104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N MOT BIS 35 ENE MBG 35 N 9V9 PHP RAP 20 E 4BQ MLS 50 SW GGW 30 SSW HVR 65 ENE CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OMA LWD 35 WSW UIN 45 ENE JEF 10 SE VIH 30 NE SGF EMP HUT 45 NNW P28 55 SSW HLC 10 NNW MCK LBF ANW OFK 15 WNW OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML CON 25 S EWB ...CONT... 75 NW DVL JMS FRM CID ALN 10 SSE MDH 20 SE PAH 20 SE SDF HTS ROA LYH CHO MRB ZZV MFD 30 NE CLE ...CONT... 50 SSW TUS SAD TCS SAF 4SL FMN U17 U24 ELY 40 ENE TPH DRA 30 ENE NID 50 NNW NID 45 SSW BIH 60 W RNO SVE 55 NNE SVE OWY BYI BZN HLN 3DU S06 65 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.... CLOSED LOWS/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 08/12Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF FRONT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...ONGOING CLUSTER MAY DIMINISH...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 08/06Z...GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 08/12Z. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ONE OR MORE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ALREADY SUPPORTING EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT...STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TO VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY FORM ABOVE RADIATIONAL/FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT UPPER JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO PERSIST AS SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING CLUSTER. **FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 06:05:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 01:05:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407080605.i6865t114998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080603 SWODY1 SPC AC 080601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML CON BDL JFK WAL 55 SSW RIC CHO AOO ELM UCA 10 WNW MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL FAR RWF DSM IRK JLN ICT 10 NW HUT LBF AIA DGW 10 NE 4BQ ISN 60 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GDP 50 ESE ALM 50 E LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 25 WSW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 45 N EVW 20 ENE COD 20 SW MLS 75 NW ISN ...CONT... 45 ESE INL 15 WNW EAU 40 E DBQ 30 N IND 20 NW HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 W BLH 70 WSW PRC 30 SE SOW 35 ENE SAD 70 E DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION TODAY. UPSTREAM...BROADER-SCALE LOW WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES VICINITY. PRIMARY MID/UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL PLAY ROLE IN MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 08/12Z ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEAR/NORTHEAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY MID DAY... WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL OCCUR IN GRADIENT BETWEEN THERMAL LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F IN UPSLOPE REGIME...SURFACE HEATING IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...AS 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AIDS PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING... TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/INTENSE AS IT SPREADS INTO UPSLOPE REGIME. VEERING PROFILES FROM EASTERLY AT THE SURFACE TO MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/EASTERN KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE THREAT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL WARMING SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KANSAS...BUT HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WEAKENING FRONT. ETA SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SPREADING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY MAY CONTINUE ON SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ...NORTHEAST STATES... GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN VIRGINIA/DELMARVA REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK... 30 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREADS TOWARD NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 12:59:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 07:59:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407081259.i68Cxj112170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081257 SWODY1 SPC AC 081255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HLC 35 N IML 25 NE AIA 55 SSW PHP 20 ESE PHP 25 W 9V9 60 W YKN 15 S OFK 40 WSW LNK 45 S HSI 40 NNE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 10 NE EWR 15 N WAL 50 WSW ORF 50 SW RIC CHO 20 S AOO SYR 15 W MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK 40 WSW FAR 20 SE ATY 35 W FOD 15 NNE LWD 15 NNW TBN 30 ENE HRO FYV 10 SW TUL 20 NW PNC 40 NE GCK 25 NE AKO 30 NE DGW 20 N 4BQ 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF 10 SW ROW 50 E LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 25 WSW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 45 N EVW 25 E COD 55 W MLS 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 30 N IND 20 NW HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH 30 SSW PRC 30 SW SOW 35 ENE SAD 70 E DUG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...NEW ENGLAND STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL TURN SLY ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT NEAR 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS INTO CNTRL NEB BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS OVER WCNTRL NEB EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY WILL SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN NEB. AS A RESULT...STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB BETWEEN THE MOIST AXIS TO THE EAST AND THERMAL AXIS TO THE WEST. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION...FORECASTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE STORM INITIATION. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS ERN ID AND WRN WY WILL PUNCH EWD INTO NRN NEB...RAPIDLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GRAND ISLAND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF ABOUT 280 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...RAPID INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN SRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SRH VALUES OF 150 TO 300 M2/S2 SUGGEST STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW IN THE NEB SANDHILLS AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS THE DOMINATE MODE MAY ALSO OCCUR AS AN MCS DIVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO KS LATE THIS EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE MCS TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS KS TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/COASTAL PLAINS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE NERN US. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NY AND PA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH 1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AS SFC TEMPS WARM TODAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN US AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INTO THE MODERATE RANGE REACHING 30 TO 35 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 16:37:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 11:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407081638.i68Gc0115401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081635 SWODY1 SPC AC 081633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HLC 35 N IML 20 ESE AIA 55 SSW PHP 50 ESE PHP 20 S 9V9 45 WSW YKN 30 ESE OFK 10 E LNK 20 WSW BIE 50 NNE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 15 NNE ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE WAL 30 NW ORF RIC 50 SW DCA 30 SSW CXY 10 ESE SYR 15 W MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW FAR 35 WSW AXN 20 SW FOD 15 NNE LWD 30 ESE SZL 15 NNW HRO FYV 10 SW TUL 20 NW PNC 40 NE GCK 30 ENE CYS 65 SSE 81V 45 SSE Y22 60 NW ABR 50 SSW FAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 SSE 4CR 45 ENE LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 15 WNW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 50 E TVL 45 N EVW 25 E COD 25 NW MLS 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 15 SSW LAF 15 SE HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH 40 SE PRC 50 NE SOW 45 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 45 W ELP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB AND S CENTRAL SD THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NWD TO UPSTATE NY THIS AFTERNOON.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD AREA FROM NE OK/SW MO TO SD...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA.... ...NEB/SD/ND AREA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NWD FROM NRN KS INTO S/SE NEB...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE FROM THE S AND ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING. ABOVE THE SURFACE...12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CAP OVER WRN KS/NEB AND ERN CO...AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S TO ERODE THE CAP FROM BELOW AND ALLOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION...GIVEN ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WILL BE HIGH BASED ATOP A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STORM MERGERS/STRONG OUTFLOW GENERATION MAY TEND TO FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEB. FARTHER N...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY DECREASE NWD FROM NEB ACROSS SD TO ND. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NRN/ERN SD INTO ND...AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS PROBABLY WILL NOT EXCEED THE MID-UPPER 50S N OF ABOUT I-90. DESPITE THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ND/SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM MT/WY...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN KS/NE OK/SW MO... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER ACROSS SE KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SWLY LLJ...WHERE MUCAPE VALUES /BASED NEAR 900 MB/ ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A SWLY TO SLY FLOW OF ROUGHLY 25 KT SHOULD STILL PERSIST OVER OK/KS IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WAA/MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE EXISTING CLUSTER...AND STORMS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE EXISTING STORMS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHOULD CONSIST OF PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. ...CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO UPSTATE NY... SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A WIND SHIFT AND ATTENDANT CLOUD BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NY...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM OH TO WRN PA/NY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS OF 66-70 F IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION... AND SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODEST SBCAPE COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 20:04:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 15:04:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407082005.i68K5O109671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082001 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE WAL 30 NW ORF RIC 50 SW DCA 30 SSW CXY 10 ESE SYR 15 W MSS ...CONT... 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 15 NNE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW FAR 35 WSW AXN 20 SW FOD 15 NNE LWD 25 NNW TBN 65 N LIT 25 SE FSM 30 WSW MKO 20 NNE END 40 NE GCK 25 N CYS 45 NNE DGW 40 ESE REJ 60 NW ABR 50 SSW FAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 SSE 4CR 45 ENE LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 15 WNW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 50 E TVL 45 N EVW 25 E COD 25 NW MLS 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 15 SSW LAF 15 SE HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH 40 SE PRC 50 NE SOW 45 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 45 W ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN OK/NWRN AR... ...DAKOTAS/NEB... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REGION OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND ERN MT/WRN ND. RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS HAVE EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINED A STRONG CAP AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB /PER 18Z LBF AND OMA SOUNDINGS/...TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM LOW OVER WRN KS EWD ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER TO NEAR STL AS OF 18Z. THUS...INITIATION ALONG WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL NEB HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF DEEP...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY INTO THE NEB PNHDL. HERE...AIRMASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXCESSIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS / MCS/S WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN KS INTO SRN NEB SHOULD MAINTAIN AN INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM....WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB MAY RESULT IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST. CONSIDERABLY COOLER...MORE STABLE AIRMASS PRESENT E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB WILL LIMIT SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...NERN OK INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR... 18Z SGF INDICATED A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER CAP THAN POINTS TO THE N WITH RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL FROM NE OF JLN TO SW OF BVO. LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PROPAGATE SWD/SEWD AS LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ENCOUNTERS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ...CHESAPEAKE BAY NWD INTO UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND... PLEASE REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1570 AND 1571 FOR LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND E OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION OF ERN VA. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT TO VT SWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF MA/CT. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 00:57:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 19:57:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407090058.i690wS122621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090056 SWODY1 SPC AC 090054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PIR HON 10 E FSD 30 WSW FOD 25 SE OJC 40 N JLN 10 NNW JLN 20 NNE MKO 25 SSE FSM 50 SSE HRO 45 SSW UNO 35 WSW ARG 15 ENE LIT 35 NNW TXK 30 ENE DUA 40 ENE OKC PNC HUT RSL GLD 15 NE SNY MHN VTN 10 SE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO 10 SSW LNR 10 W MMO UNI 15 WNW HTS 15 SE SSU DCA TTN MSV BGM 25 NW ART ...CONT... LRD SEP 10 ENE SPS LTS 45 W CSM 20 W CDS 10 N BGS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 35 SSE YUM 70 E BLH PRC INW GUP 40 NNW 4SL CEZ CNY P38 LAS DAG NID 30 ESE FAT 15 NNW TVL 30 NW LOL 10 WSW BAM 35 NW ENV 45 SW BPI 81V REJ DIK 65 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS APPARENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PRESENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO 30-50 KT WESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS. LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 09/00Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY INTENSIFY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EXPANDING COLD POOL AND BROADER SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED. ...NORTHEAST... CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. ***FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 01:16:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 20:16:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407090122.i691Mb129680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090115 SWODY1 SPC AC 090113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PIR HON 10 E FSD 30 WSW FOD 25 SE OJC 40 N JLN 10 NNW JLN 20 NNE MKO 25 SSE FSM 50 SSE HRO 45 SSW UNO 35 WSW ARG 15 ENE LIT 35 NNW TXK 30 ENE DUA 40 ENE OKC PNC HUT RSL GLD 15 NE SNY MHN VTN 10 SE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO 10 SSW LNR 10 W MMO UNI 15 WNW HTS 15 SE SSU DCA TTN MSV BGM 25 NW ART ...CONT... LRD SEP 10 ENE SPS LTS 45 W CSM 20 W CDS 10 N BGS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 35 SSE YUM 70 E BLH PRC INW GUP 40 NNW 4SL CEZ CNY P38 LAS DAG NID 30 ESE FAT 15 NNW TVL 30 NW LOL 10 WSW BAM 35 NW ENV 45 SW BPI 81V REJ DIK 65 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROB GRAPHIC ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS APPARENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PRESENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO 30-50 KT WESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS. LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 09/00Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY INTENSIFY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EXPANDING COLD POOL AND BROADER SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED. ...NORTHEAST... CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. ***FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 06:00:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 01:00:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407090601.i6961T115699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090558 SWODY1 SPC AC 090556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE RAP REJ 30 ESE GDV SDY 15 E ISN 50 NNE MOT 55 N GFK TVF FAR 20 ESE ABR 30 SW 9V9 35 SSW PHP 35 NNE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 35 E SEP 15 NW ADM 40 NNE CDS 25 E PVW 40 SSW LBB 15 SW MAF 50 SSW P07 ...CONT... CZZ 35 SE EDW 50 N FAT 40 S TVL 10 NW TVL 15 ESE RNO 10 W OWY 55 W BTM 20 NE BTM 30 NNE LVM 40 NE BIL 20 NW MLS 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MTJ 40 NE U28 40 E U24 35 NNW P38 40 WSW SGU 50 S SGU 60 E GCN 55 W GUP 40 NNE GNT 25 SSE DRO 30 W MTJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES IS PROGGED TO BECOME BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE NATION IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES/MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD. ...PLAINS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG/EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH. ON SOUTHERLY FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 10/00Z. ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. BUT...BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AT CREST OF MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...LOW/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AND FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PARTS OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS... MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 10/00Z. WHILE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE QUITE WEAK...EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ...NORTHEAST... AS RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES ACROSS MAINE DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR CORE OF MID/UPPER LOW. ..KERR.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 12:43:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 07:43:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407091244.i69CiX107162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091242 SWODY1 SPC AC 091240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DEN 35 NE LAR 30 NE DGW 40 SW RAP 45 SE RAP 50 NW MHN 30 N IML 40 NW GLD 20 NE LIC 20 NNE DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 SE EDW 50 N FAT 40 S TVL 10 NW TVL 20 NW LOL 35 NW OWY 55 W BTM 20 NE BTM 30 NNE LVM 40 NE BIL 20 NW MLS 55 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MTJ 40 NE U28 40 E U24 20 NNE P38 40 WSW SGU 50 S SGU 60 E GCN 55 W GUP 40 NNE GNT 25 SSE DRO 30 W MTJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 35 E SEP 15 NW ADM 20 SSW LTS 40 SSE MAF 50 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SUMMER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE U.S. AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN U.S....ON THE ORDER OF 30-90M...FORCE STRONGER FLOW INTO SRN CANADA. RESULTANT PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ZONES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. THE MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO SPREAD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO...ACROSS SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE...MAINLY MULTICELL HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SURVIVE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING. ...OH VALLEY... EARLY MORNING MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS WELL ORGANIZED...BUT NOT SEVERE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY IF LIFTING A PARCEL AROUND 900MB...ROUGHLY 4000J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AT ILX. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT THE ABILITY FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...AN AXIS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 16:35:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 11:35:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407091635.i69GZe110061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091633 SWODY1 SPC AC 091631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 20 SE LAR 15 S 4BQ 35 NE ISN 40 W MOT 50 SSW PHP 40 SE SNY 50 SSE LHX 35 NE TAD DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ADM 15 NE SPS 10 SSW LTS 20 W CSM 20 SE GAG 50 W END 20 SSE END 45 SW TUL 35 WSW MKO 25 S MLC 20 NNE DUA 20 SW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 35 WSW MWL 25 WNW ABI 70 WSW SJT 30 S P07 ...CONT... 30 W YUM 30 W IGM 70 WNW P38 30 SSE NFL 35 W LOL 40 ENE 4LW 20 WNW LWS 10 SW FCA 40 NNE BIL 40 NNW MLS 70 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...OK AREA... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD/SSWWD INTO NRN OK IN RESPONSE TO NLY MID LEVEL FLOW /W OF AN MCV OVER SW MO/...AND 30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. THE LLJ ACROSS OK SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 F S OF THE ONGOING STORMS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME SMALL AND MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. ...HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING TODAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND NO CLOSE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND/SE MT TO 2500 J/KG OVER ERN CO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE SPREAD WWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM KS. SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD TO ERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER N ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SE MT INTO WRN ND. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. ...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND INDIANA AREA... A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS MOVING EWD OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA TOWARD SRN WI AND NRN IL. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS ORIENTED WNW-ESE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/INDIANA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 19:42:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 14:42:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407091943.i69JhZ124343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091937 SWODY1 SPC AC 091935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 20 SE LAR 45 ESE MLS 15 WNW ISN 45 ENE ISN 20 NNW P24 LAA 40 SSE LHX 20 SE PUB DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW ADM 15 NE SPS 10 WSW LTS 40 W CSM 35 N CSM 25 WNW OKC 35 ESE OKC 10 NNW FYV 35 SSW HRO 45 E PGO 30 NW PRX 40 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 35 WSW MWL 25 WNW ABI 70 WSW SJT 30 S P07 ...CONT... 30 W YUM 30 W IGM 70 WNW P38 30 SSE NFL 35 W LOL 40 ENE 4LW 20 WNW LWS 10 SW FCA 40 NNE BIL 40 NNW MLS 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 10 NW ANJ 25 SW HTL 20 SSE DTW 15 S HLG 20 E MGW 25 E EKN 40 SSE PSK 25 SW GSO 15 NW GSB 35 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND AR... ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO WRN ND. CLEAR SKIES INVOF DEVELOPING STORMS HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND 25-35KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGH PLAINS REGION. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT NV WITH ASSOCIATED REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN ID AND EWD ACROSS UT. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO WWD INTO NERN UT. LDS AND REGIONAL MOSAIC DATA INDICATE STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SWRN WY WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ...OK INTO WRN AR... MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN HALF OF OK AND NWRN AR INTO UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE 5-15KT SLY FLOW IN THE .5 - 1.5KM LAYER WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT. ADDITIONAL WWD DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY WRN PORTIONS OF OK WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE UNSTABLE BUT ALSO MORE CAPPED. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOW SYSTEM MOTION...CORRIDORS OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW MCV LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN IA/SWRN WI WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN WI INTO NERN IL. FARTHER SE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED INVOF WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN IND INTO NRN KY WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV WILL REMAIN N OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IND/SWRN MI EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH AS WELL AS NRN KY. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1583. ..MEAD.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:59:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407100100.i6A10M130951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100058 SWODY1 SPC AC 100056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW SNY 30 SE AIA 55 NE CDR 35 ESE PHP 60 SSE 9V9 GRI 35 NNE HLC 10 NNE GLD 15 SE AKO 15 SW SNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DIK 40 SSE ISN 45 WNW MOT 60 NNW DVL GFK 50 SW JMS 30 SW BIS 10 NW DIK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM SGU ELY 65 NW ELY 10 SE BAM OWY 15 SSE BKE S80 45 ESE CTB HVR 75 NW GGW ...CONT... 10 NE RRT FAR 45 ENE ATY RST 10 E MKG LAN 15 SSE DTW HLG MRB 10 NE WAL ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 40 W MWL LTS 25 NNW CDS LBB 10 NNE INK FST 30 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PWM 35 NNE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WRN/CNTRL NEBRASKA AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.... A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND COULD POSE FURTHER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... WEAK LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT PERSISTS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY FORCE MOIST UNSTABLE CENTRAL PLAINS AIR MASS TO SATURATION AND LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING INFLOW FROM ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...AS MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES HAS SHIFTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE TOPPING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CAPPING PLAINS MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST OF MINOT AFB. AS WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPS NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE DEVILS LAKE AREA LATER TONIGHT. ...OHIO VALLEY... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHERN OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG /REF 10/00Z RAOB FROM ILX/. THIS IS SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. THOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDING ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. **FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 05:55:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 00:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407100555.i6A5tc112853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100553 SWODY1 SPC AC 100551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 30 WSW GGW 40 W MLS 25 SE 3HT HLN 10 NW 3DU 35 SSW FCA 55 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR 10 N RAP 10 N REJ 10 SSW DIK DVL GFK FAR 55 W AXN SPW 40 SSW FOD 15 NNE FNB 45 SSW HSI MCK IML AIA CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSM 35 ENE ALB 25 SSW ART ...CONT... 80 W CAR 20 NE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 ESE PHX 35 NNE PHX 55 SSE IGM 15 SSW IGM IGM 20 S PGA 15 NNE U17 25 N U28 15 SE EVW 30 NNW OGD 50 S TWF 15 W TWF 20 SE BOI 45 WNW BOI 60 S BNO 30 NNE 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 55 ESE RDM 55 SSW PDT 10 WSW PDT 10 S PUW 45 ENE GEG 35 WSW 63S 20 W YKM 15 SSW HQM ...CONT... 35 N CMX IWD 55 NE EAU 20 W VOK 20 S MSN 20 SE MKE 35 NNE MKG 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 WSW ERI 20 N PSB 10 S ACY ...CONT... 15 NW DRT 45 NNE JCT 35 WNW SEP 40 NNE ABI 30 ENE BGS 25 SE INK 30 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA.... STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN/ U.S. BORDER REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...UPSTREAM OF PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO FORECAST EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OUTLOOKED OVER FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA... AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID DAY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE DAY...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WHILE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY STILL BE CAPPED AT MIDDAY...INCREASING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 18Z. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE MOBRIDGE SD AREA...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING FORCING SUFFICIENT FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED WITHIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THIS THREAT TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD. STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST. FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...EAST OF SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS. THOUGH FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH...VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER TO MID-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BEFORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EVOLVES/SPREADS EASTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF STRONG COLD POOL WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRENGTHENING/ VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BUT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS WEAKER THIS AREA...LIKELY LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. ...MONTANA... THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP INTO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY 11/00Z...LIKELY SUPPORTING EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST SMALL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MID/UPPER FLOW IS NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES VEERING TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST AND EVOLUTION OF SMALL VIGOROUS COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 11/06Z...IN MORE STABLE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. ...OHIO VALLEY... LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. MID-LEVEL CAPPING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND ACTIVITY MAY BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL SURFACE HEATING...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...BUT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 12:48:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 07:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407101249.i6ACn4125833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101247 SWODY1 SPC AC 101245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 30 WSW GGW 35 SSE OLF 25 ESE SDY 25 WSW MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 30 E INL 25 NW HIB 20 NE STC 20 NE MKT 30 E FOD 35 WSW DSM 15 NNE FNB 45 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML 20 S BFF 55 NW CDR 10 NNW 81V 20 N SHR 50 SW BIL BTM 20 E MSO 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 ESE PHX 35 NNE PHX 55 SSE IGM 15 SSW IGM IGM 15 S PGA 35 NE U17 50 WNW GJT 45 SSE RKS 25 NNW RKS 55 S BYI 45 NW ENV 50 ESE OWY 20 SSE BOI 50 S BKE 50 SW PDT 20 WNW LWS 45 ENE GEG 35 WSW 63S 20 W YKM 15 SSW HQM ...CONT... 35 N CMX 40 WNW IWD 25 NW EAU 15 SSW ALO 40 SE CID 15 NW GRR 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 WSW ERI 20 N PSB 10 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 20 S HUL ...CONT... 20 E PSM 35 ENE ALB 25 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 45 NNE JCT 35 WNW SEP 40 NNE ABI 30 ENE BGS 25 SE INK 30 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...LIFTING NEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FOCUSING DOWNSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE FOR FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S F...IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. 12Z FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN ND INTO ERN MT...BUT SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE E-W ACROSS SRN ND BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE RECENTLY OVER ERN ND...IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AND CAP REMOVAL FOR MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL EVOLVE BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RESULTANT PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH A MCS LIKELY EVOLVING BY MID EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE DAMAGING WINDS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT WITH MCS AFTER DARK. UPSTREAM...ELY COMPONENT ACROSS MT WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW FOR CONVECTION THAT SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOWLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...OH VALLEY... DEEP WLY FLOW BUT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON NRN SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE. OF SOME CONCERN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS THE REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHTS MCS WHICH HAS SPREAD INTO ERN IL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS IND INTO OH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST PROFILES...ROUGHLY 1.75 IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 16:17:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 11:17:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407101617.i6AGHi118218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101613 SWODY1 SPC AC 101611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 25 N STC 15 N SPW 45 ENE OMA 45 NNE FNB 30 WSW FNB 25 ENE CNK 55 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML 20 S BFF 55 NW CDR 10 NNW 81V 20 N SHR 50 SW BIL BTM 20 E MSO 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 30 NW EPM ...CONT... 25 ESE BOS 25 SSE RUT 40 N ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MQT 30 SW LSE 20 N ALO 20 NW CID 30 S DBQ 30 SW CGX MTC ...CONT... 35 WSW ERI 20 ENE AOO 20 E SBY ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 SW PHX 60 SW PRC 55 SSE IGM IGM 60 ESE SGU 20 SW VEL 40 ENE RKS 15 S LND 30 SE JAC 35 SE SUN 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 35 NE ABI 40 ESE END 35 N END 45 NE GAG MAF 80 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND MT... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT AND ANOTHER IN NRN CO...BOTH LIFTING ENEWD. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SERN MT WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS EXTREME SRN ND/WRN IA EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE FEATURES SHOULD PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN AIDING IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NWD WILL SHIFT EWD WITH LIFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO WRN MN THIS MORNING AND STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SD/NEB THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. STORM OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH AN MCS AND A GREATER WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO WRN MN. ...MT... ELY SFC COMPONENT EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW FOR CONVECTION THAT SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SLOW MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS STRONG LIFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER TROUGH. THE DRIER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...NRN MO... A WEAKENING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO NWRN MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM FRONT LIES NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS NRN MO LATER TODAY. MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WITH STORMS...BUT WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...OH VALLEY... DEEP WLY FLOW WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA ON NRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED DEEP MOIST PROFILES...BUT WEAK LAPS RATES. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WINDS ATTM. ...VA... CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER HI IN THE SERN U.S...SHOULD MAINTAIN OH/WV CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING...DEEP WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR BETWEEN 500-700 MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGER GUSTS BELOW SEVERE WIND CRITERIA. ..IMY.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:54:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:54:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407101955.i6AJt8116516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101952 SWODY1 SPC AC 101950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 25 N STC 15 N SPW 45 ENE OMA 45 NNE FNB 30 WSW FNB 25 ENE CNK 55 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML BFF 55 NW CDR 15 NW 81V 15 ENE SHR 15 N COD 55 ENE SUN 60 SW 27U 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BOS 25 SSE RUT 40 N ART ...CONT... 55 NNW 3B1 30 NW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ERI 20 ENE AOO 20 E SBY ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 30 SW LSE 20 N ALO 20 NW CID 30 S DBQ 30 SW CGX MTC ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 SW PHX 60 SW PRC 55 SSE IGM IGM 60 ESE SGU 20 SW VEL 40 ENE RKS 15 S LND 30 SE JAC 35 SE SUN 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 35 NE ABI 40 ESE END 35 N END 45 NE GAG 25 SSE MAF 75 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE NEB PNHDL/ERN CO AND THE OTHER ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW INTO ID/WRN MT. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER 18Z MESOANALYSIS/ FROM SERN MT INTO N-CNTRL SD WITH QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SEWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO NRN MO. CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL SD SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE MO RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 18Z BIS SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...HOWEVER RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM WERE PRESENT. EWD ADVECTION OF THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME ATOP DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH A WEAKENING CAP. THUS...ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO A MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER ND...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING ON THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. BOTH FARGO/GRAND FORKS VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE AND AS THEY MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER LCL/LFC / HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT E OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S TONIGHT WITH A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN NEB. FARTHER W...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ID PNHDL HAS MAINTAINED ELY FEED OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S/ ACROSS MUCH OF MT. THIS MOISTURE WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD/S 1593 AND 1595. ...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST MID-LEVEL PLUME /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ AROUND NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT / CURRENTLY FROM NRN MO EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND/OH / AS WELL AS ALONG NE-SW COASTAL FRONT SITUATED OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. THOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THESE AREAS...PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY STRONG WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD/S 1591 AND 1592. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED ALONG ERN SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY ENHANCED NELY FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MAY HELP SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING WWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD 1594. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 01:02:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 20:02:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407110103.i6B13B127816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110100 SWODY1 SPC AC 110058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ELO 25 S ELO 30 NE RWF 20 ENE SPW 45 SE OMA 30 WNW EMP 45 S RSL 50 SSW HLC 40 NW GLD BFF 55 NW CDR 15 NW 81V 40 NE BIL 45 E HLN 40 SSW 3DU 60 ENE S80 35 ESE 3TH 45 NE CTB 65 ENE HVR 25 WNW ISN 25 SW DVL 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BOS 35 W ALB 25 NNW ART ...CONT... 40 NNW BML BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 SSW PRC 15 N FLG 60 NW GUP 45 WSW FMN 45 SSW MTJ 20 NW CAG 35 S DGW 45 SW GCC 30 NNE BYI 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 25 SW LSE 40 E ALO 30 ENE MLI 50 NW LAF 35 NNW CMH 20 WNW YNG 30 ENE LBE 10 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 55 SSE BWD 20 SSW DUA 25 NNW MKO 30 SSE CNU 25 NW PNC 25 NNE CSM 35 S MAF 85 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATELY- TO STRONGLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS NEWD INTO NRN MN...WHERE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING JET IS OBSERVED. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL / SUPERCELL STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STRONG / ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NWRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION -- AS WELL AS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS -- SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. ...SRN APPALACHIANS / CAROLINAS... SLOWLY WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LINE MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC. ...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT... MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN MT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC NW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT COMBINED WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 05:42:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 00:42:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407110543.i6B5hR132583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110541 SWODY1 SPC AC 110539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW CMX 45 NW IWD 60 S DLH 15 WNW LSE 40 WSW CID 40 N STJ 35 SSW BIE 50 ENE HLC 35 SSW IML 10 SE SNY 45 NE AIA 35 ENE RAP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ANJ 65 NE ESC 50 ESE ESC 15 ENE TVC 15 NE MBS 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 25 ESE UCA 40 NW EWR 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 35 E SJT 45 SE SPS 40 SE OKC 15 NNE OKC 25 NE CDS 40 SSW LBB 20 SSE INK 40 WSW MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 20 SE PRC 30 ENE INW 55 SSW 4BL 35 SW GJT 45 W CAG 35 E RWL 40 ESE RIW 25 NNE BPI 20 N TWF 50 SSW S80 25 N MSO 30 S FCA 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUG 25 NW BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MEAN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER UPPER FLOW EXTENDS IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM CA / THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SRN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKER BRANCH OF THIS FASTER FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- NOW CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS -- MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BELT OF FASTER FLOW -- LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE -- IS NOW EVIDENT OVER WA. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WITH STRONG RIDGE PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SRN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. IN RESPONSE...LOW OVER SERN MT SHOULD DEEPEN / MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 12/00Z AND THEN APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS / TROUGHS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...ERN MT / ND... SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS ERN MT EARLY IN THE PERIOD N OF WEAK SURFACE LOW / AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER ERN MT. WITH 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING EWD ACROSS MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO WRN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LATE EVENING / OVERNIGHT STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...ALTHOUGH LATEST ETA WOULD SUGGEST AN MCS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ND. ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG / VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL / TORNADO THREAT WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN SD SWWD INTO ERN CO...S OF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN FRINGES OF THE SAME UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AND CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH EITHER WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OR CONVERGENCE NEAR LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...NLY COMPONENT ALOFT ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS FAR S AS NERN CO. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS INITIAL UPPER TROUGH WITHIN WLY FLOW N OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED EAST OF THE MS RIVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN NEB / THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO IA / WRN MN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LINGERING CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF WEAK / CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD IN GENERAL BE LIMITED AS MARGINAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL NONETHELESS BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL THROUGH EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 12:43:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 07:43:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407111244.i6BCiF116972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111241 SWODY1 SPC AC 111239 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RRT 30 E FAR 30 WNW ATY 30 NW 9V9 25 W PHP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 20 SE PRC 30 ENE INW 55 SSW 4BL 35 SW GJT 45 W CAG 35 E RWL 40 ESE RIW 25 NNE BPI 20 N TWF 50 SSW S80 25 N MSO 30 S FCA 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW ANJ 65 NE ESC 50 ESE ESC 15 ENE TVC 15 NE MBS 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 25 ESE UCA 40 NW EWR 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 35 E SJT 45 SE SPS 40 SE OKC 15 NNE OKC 25 NE CDS 40 SSW LBB 20 SSE INK 40 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUG 25 NW BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...NRN PLAINS... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...LIFTING NEWD TOWARD ALBERTA/NWRN MT IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FUTURE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TFX INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 45KT OBSERVED AT 500MB AND STRONGER FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS. THIS REFLECTS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER SPEED MAX THAT WILL APPROACH WRN ND BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MT TODAY IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL CLOUDINESS. IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NWRN-SWRN MT THEN SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE INFLOW/SHEAR PROFILES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FORCE A SHARPENING COLD FRONT INTO WRN ND WHERE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR N-S MCS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION MAY PROVE DISCRETE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AN EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ND. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE OBSERVED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EXPOSED TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ...MID MS VALLEY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE FROM NERN NEB INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND THE PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 6C/KM...WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LOW AS DOES THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 16:24:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 11:24:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407111624.i6BGOd111182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111622 SWODY1 SPC AC 111620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 50 SE FAR 30 WNW ATY 30 NW 9V9 25 W PHP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE ALO 35 ENE RFD CGX 30 N DNV 25 ENE MTO 25 NNE SLO 15 NW STL 30 SSW IRK 20 W STJ 15 WSW BIE 30 ESE OLU 45 SE SUX 40 NNE DSM 55 NE ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 25 NW PRC 10 SW GCN 55 WSW FMN 45 W ALS 20 SE PUB 40 ENE GLD 30 NE LBF 40 SW CDR 20 ESE CPR 40 NW RIW 20 S MQM 15 NNE 27U 30 NNW 3DU 60 N 3DU 45 SW CTB 20 NW FCA 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 65 E MQT 10 ENE TVC 25 N MBS 70 SE OSC ...CONT... BUF 15 E NEL ...CONT... 30 WNW DRT 20 NE DAL 25 ENE MLC 35 SSE CNU 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 15 WNW HOB 55 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 65 NW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IL/IA AREA... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERMAL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN ALBERTA...HAS SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MT AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE FRONT IS NOT WELL DEFINED ATTM...BUT SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AS TROUGH APPROACHES. HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MT IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW/TOUGH. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS MT...MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SHIFT EWD ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ALREADY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD INTO ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE CONVECTION BECOMES ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING SHOULD ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HAIL ...WITH THE WIND THREAT INCREASING ONCE THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM. ...IA/IL AREA... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD FROM WRN WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IA. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING CHARTS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION...VAD WIND PROFILES AT DSM AND SALTER PROFILER SHOWED WLY WINDS AT 25-30 KT WINDS FROM THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 25000 FEET. A PORTION OF THE LINE HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO FORWARD PROPAGATE IN CENTRAL IA..THOUGH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT HAS SLOWED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF ERN IA/NRN IL SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING WITH THE SREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATING MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT EVOLUTION OF LINE/STORMS IS STILL UNCLEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ANOTHER MVC WAS ALSO INDICATED ON VSBY SATELLITE NEAR LNK. OMA MORNING SOUNDING WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A HAIL/WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...FL PENINSULA... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DEEP NELY FLOW WAS EVIDENT FROM 800 TO 100 MB. EXPECT CONVECTION OFF THE ERN PENINSULA COAST WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVE SWWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY....THINK HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. ..IMY.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 20:02:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 15:02:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407112002.i6BK2Q106205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111958 SWODY1 SPC AC 111956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE DBQ 35 ENE RFD 30 WNW SBN 35 E FWA 40 N LEX 35 NNE HOP 55 WNW CGI 10 SSW SZL 20 ENE TOP 20 NW FNB 20 NE OMA 15 NE DSM 25 NNE CID 35 ENE DBQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 50 SE FAR 30 WNW ATY 35 ESE CDR 35 WSW CDR 55 S 81V 45 W GCC 45 NE COD 55 SW BIL 30 W 3HT 40 NNW LWT 55 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 15 E NEL ...CONT... 65 E MQT 10 ENE TVC 25 N MBS 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 55 WNW LBF 45 W IML 45 WNW GLD 35 S GLD 45 SW HLC 30 NE HLC 15 WNW EAR 25 NW BBW 55 WNW LBF ...CONT... 30 WNW DRT 20 NE DAL 25 ENE MLC 35 SSE CNU 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 15 WNW HOB 55 W MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 25 NW PRC 10 SW GCN 30 NE CEZ 20 SW DEN FCL 40 SE RWL 30 ESE LND 40 NW RIW 20 S MQM 15 NNE 27U 30 NNW 3DU 60 N 3DU 45 SW CTB 20 NW FCA 45 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 65 NW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WITH WEAKER...DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND WRN ND. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER E-CNTRL MT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NOW FROM E OF HVR TO E OF LVM. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM ERN MT/WRN ND SEWD INTO CNTRL SD. WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT TO CONDITION LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS THAT INITIATION OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER SRN ALBERTA. CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH LFC/LCL HEIGHTS CURRENTLY OVER THE ANTICIPATED INITIATION REGION. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS ALONG EXPANDING COLD POOL AS 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. THUS...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EXTEND EWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS WRN SD WHERE SELY SURFACE WINDS HAVE ADVECTED LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW DROPS OFF WITH SRN EXTENT...MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /SUPERCELLS/ WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 1616 AND 1618. ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN AIRMASS THAT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN MN/WI AND CNTRL IA...WHILE WRN EXTENSION OVER SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV OVER SERN NEB. 18Z DVN SOUNDING AND CURRENT VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE A CHANNEL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WITH 25-35KT 6KM WINDS FROM SERN NEB AS FAR E AS CNTRL IND. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TEND TO MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1617. ...FL PENINSULA... ERN SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG. LOCALLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-25KTS AROUND SERN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL GULF COAST UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MAY PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL GENERATION AND ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS MOVE SWWD. ..MEAD.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 01:05:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 20:05:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407120106.i6C162125628@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120102 SWODY1 SPC AC 120100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 50 SW BJI 30 N ATY 40 WNW VTN 40 WNW CDR 20 SW 81V 10 N 4BQ 30 NNE SHR 45 SSW BIL 15 N 3HT 70 SW GGW 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ELO 30 SSE RWF 40 WSW YKN 30 ESE BFF 50 WNW BFF 50 NNE DGW 25 SE SHR 40 SW MQM 20 NE 27U 20 NNE LWT 70 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 30 NNW JCT 45 SW PRX 15 SE PGO 15 NNW SGF 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 30 S HOB 60 S MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 55 ENE BLH 45 ESE IGM 35 ENE GCN 30 ESE ALS 15 NNW COS 35 NNW GLD 45 NE HLC 15 WSW BIE 20 ESE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 W DBQ 20 SE RST 25 NNE EAU 35 SW CMX 75 NE MQT ...CONT... 45 NW ROC 25 E BGM 15 E NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS ERN MT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COMPACT / ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / LOW AND ASSOCIATED 50-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...EXPECT SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL ND...WHERE ONGOING STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEAN TIME...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST -- LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / HIGH LCLS ACROSS ERN MT SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO WRN ND WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN UPPER LAKES. MODERATE /AOB 30 KT/ LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A LOCAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL -- PARTICULARLY WHERE SOMEWHAT-MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE BANDS OF STORMS / COLD POOLS HAVE DEVELOPED. ALTHOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...OVERALL TREND IN TERMS OF BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE DOWN. ..GOSS.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 05:54:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 00:54:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407120554.i6C5sg108966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120552 SWODY1 SPC AC 120550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 20 ENE MSN 30 ENE BRL 25 ESE P35 10 N FNB 10 SSE LNK 10 W GRI 25 W MCK 45 ENE SNY 15 SSW 9V9 15 S FAR 45 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 30 WNW GBN 25 S PRC 35 ENE IGM 30 SSE BCE 20 SSW U28 25 NW CAG 35 ENE RWL 45 SSE WRL 35 WSW WRL 30 S WEY 15 S BTM 45 W 3HT 60 ESE MLS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W EPM 15 NE AUG 20 NNW PSM 15 NE ORH 15 N BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW 4OM 30 SE YKM 50 NNE BKE 45 ENE BKE 10 W BKE 60 NNW BNO 45 SSE RDM 35 WNW MHS 25 E 4BK 35 NE OTH 50 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MFE 50 SSE SAT 15 SSE AUS 20 W LFK 40 SW MLU 40 SSW PBF 15 SSW PGO JLN 30 WSW ICT 25 ESE EHA 10 ENE CVS 25 WNW CNM ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN UPPER LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANTICYCLONIC ARC OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM CA NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THIS PERIOD...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURE FORECAST TO BE SURFACE TROUGH -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST... SEVERE MCS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL CONTINUE EWD...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE OTHER STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE DAY 1 / EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS NWRN WI SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /INCLUDING 40 TO 50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/ EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS MOVE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR / INTO ONTARIO. FURTHER S INTO ERN SD / THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF LARGELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH -- OR INVOF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FURTHER N. WITH 35 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO EXTEND SWD INTO THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO... ALTHOUGH CAP SHOULD BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION /MID-LEVEL FLOW 15 TO 25 KT/...MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CAROLINAS AND VICINITY... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELD AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CONVECTION / CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 12:32:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 07:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407121233.i6CCX6121130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121231 SWODY1 SPC AC 121228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 15 SW RHI 30 ENE ALO 25 ENE DSM 20 NE LNK 10 SW BBW 25 SW VTN 15 WSW MBG 50 SE BIS 45 WNW FAR 20 SSW TVF 10 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 4OM 35 NE DLS 20 E MHS 35 W MHS 40 ENE CEC 35 E EUG 45 SE OLM 45 NE SEA 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 15 E IGM 20 SW MLF 25 WNW PUC 25 WSW VEL 20 WNW CAG 30 NNE RWL 45 SE WRL 15 SE COD 40 WNW COD 25 NW BIL 40 W 4BQ 40 ENE 4BQ 25 WSW DIK 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MFE 45 S SAT 30 S AUS 25 W LFK 45 SW MLU 40 SSW PBF 15 SSW PGO JLN 30 WSW ICT 20 ESE EHA 20 WSW CAO 45 ESE LVS 30 NNW ROW CNM 40 WNW FST 25 SSE FST 20 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W EPM 15 NE AUG 10 S EEN 20 E BAF 15 N BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HTL 25 WNW MBL 25 SW MTW 15 WSW JVL 25 W PIA 15 ESE DEC 20 WSW IND 35 NW DAY 25 SSE JXN 35 SW HTL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO NERN NEBRASKA... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO WRN ND. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS SPEED MAX BEGINS TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WLY WARM ADVECTION FEED AT MID LEVELS INTO BACK SIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TO SOME DEGREE THE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ESEWD INTO MN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WITH TIME...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENHANCE THE ABILITY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WHEN THIS OCCURS...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND EVENTUAL MCS ORGANIZATION. CURRENT THINKING IS LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO RENEW ITSELF AS IT APPROACHES MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MN/WI. HOWEVER...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD EMERGE AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SD WITH SWWD DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO NERN NEB. SEWD PROPAGATION AND UPWARD GENERATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SUGGEST AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER EARLY CONVECTION MAY PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 16:55:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 11:55:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407121656.i6CGu7110910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121653 SWODY1 SPC AC 121651 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 15 SW RHI 30 ENE ALO 25 ENE DSM 20 NE LNK 10 SW BBW 25 SW VTN 50 SE MBG 20 NNE ABR 25 W FAR 20 SSW TVF 15 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 25 W AUO 25 E TCL 10 WSW HSV 10 NNW CHA 65 NNW AHN 20 E AHN 20 SE MCN 20 SE CSG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MTW 20 N MSN 30 S LNR 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE MLI 30 SSW MMO 40 NE LAF 25 NNE FWA 10 NE GRR 30 SSW MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 55 NE TRM 30 E LAS 15 SE MLF 40 NNE CNY 15 ESE CAG 15 NE CPR 15 ESE WRL 35 N WRL 35 NW SHR 35 W 4BQ 55 N REJ 40 ENE DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 25 ENE AUS 45 SSE GGG 35 SSW ELD 60 S HRO 25 SSW JLN 30 WSW CNK 30 SSE MCK 40 ENE LIC 25 SW LHX 40 SE 4CR 55 NNW GDP 35 SE GDP 35 SW FST 25 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND GA... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION... VIGOROUS UPPER VORTICITY CENTER IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SRN SASK AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD TONIGHT TOWARD NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ND INTO NRN MN. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD ALONG AND NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING FROM SRN SD INTO SRN MN. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL SD...WITH DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NEB BECOMING LIMITED BY INCREASING CAP WITH SWD EXTENT. ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN MN SWD INTO NRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO PARTS OF IA TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN CONTINUING EWD INTO NWRN WI TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORTICITY MAX AND JET STREAK...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION. ...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO AL/GA... 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF HIGH DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT INCREASING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER INDICATE THREAT BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...AZ... SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS WITH VERY MOIST MID LEVEL CONDITIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 20:12:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 15:12:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407122012.i6CKCR105490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122004 SWODY1 SPC AC 122002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW RHI CID 40 WSW DSM BBW MHN PHP MBG 45 NNW ABR 45 E FAR 30 ESE BJI 45 W INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 20 N 0A8 20 NW MSL 45 S CKV 45 NNW CSV 15 NE HSS GSP 25 ENE MCN 20 SE CSG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 30 S HEZ 55 S GLH 45 ENE PBF 25 WNW UNO SZL 40 NW CNK MCK LAA 45 S 4CR 35 NW GDP INK SJT 15 SW PSX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS EVW 20 NNW RKS 45 S CPR 55 SSE DGW 40 W SNY SNY 10 NNW AIA CDR RAP 20 WNW Y22 BIS JMS 35 SE TVF 20 W TVF DVL 55 N ISN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MBL 35 S MTW 35 ESE JVL MMO 15 NW CMI HUF DAY 25 SSW TOL LAN 35 SE MBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE AL/TN/GA REGION... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD...NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE/MLCAPES TO NEAR 3500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SD UNTIL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...LIKELY SOMETIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING A GREATER THREAT AS SYSTEM HEADS SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NWRN IA TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS ALSO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ACROSS NEB...BUT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM THE STORMS IN SRN SD SWD INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER ACROSS NEB THAN IN SD...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN AND NWRN MN...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...AL/GA/TN AREA... 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ...BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SEWD MOVING CONVECTION WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...AZ... 12Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS HAD INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...OVERLAYED WITH MOISTURE FROM 650 TO 300/200 MB. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ/SWRN NM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...SOME COLD POOLING WITH STORMS SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..IMY.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 20:47:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 15:47:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407122048.i6CKm3121359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122039 SWODY1 SPC AC 122037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW RHI CID 40 WSW DSM BBW MHN PHP MBG 45 NNW ABR 45 E FAR 30 ESE BJI 45 W INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 20 N 0A8 20 NW MSL 45 S CKV 45 NNW CSV 15 NE HSS GSP 25 ENE MCN 20 SE CSG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 30 S HEZ 55 S GLH 45 ENE PBF 25 WNW UNO SZL 40 NW CNK MCK LAA 45 S 4CR 35 NW GDP INK SJT 15 SW PSX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS EVW 20 NNW RKS 45 S CPR 55 SSE DGW 40 W SNY SNY 10 NNW AIA CDR RAP 20 WNW Y22 BIS JMS 35 SE TVF 20 W TVF DVL 55 N ISN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MBL 35 S MTW 35 ESE JVL MMO 15 NW CMI HUF DAY 25 SSW TOL LAN 35 SE MBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE AL/TN/GA REGION... CORRECTED TO ADD A 5 TORNADO PROBABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY REGION ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD...NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE/MLCAPES TO NEAR 3500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SD UNTIL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...LIKELY SOMETIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING A GREATER THREAT AS SYSTEM HEADS SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NWRN IA TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS ALSO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ACROSS NEB...BUT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM THE STORMS IN SRN SD SWD INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER ACROSS NEB THAN IN SD...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN AND NWRN MN...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...AL/GA/TN AREA... 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ...BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SEWD MOVING CONVECTION WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...AZ... 12Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS HAD INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...OVERLAYED WITH MOISTURE FROM 650 TO 300/200 MB. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ/SWRN NM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...SOME COLD POOLING WITH STORMS SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..IMY.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 01:11:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 20:11:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407130112.i6D1C5115838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130109 SWODY1 SPC AC 130108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 NNW JVL 20 SE UIN 35 SSW P35 40 NE MCK 30 N LBF 30 ENE PHP MBG 25 S GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 20 SSW HEZ 30 S GWO 35 NW MEM 35 WNW CGI 40 ENE VIH 20 E MKC 20 WNW CNK 40 ENE GLD LAA 55 N 4CR ELP ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS 40 NNE BCE 35 SW ASE 25 WNW 4FC 40 N LAR 50 ESE WRL 55 WSW COD LVM 45 E BIL 30 SSW REJ 30 WNW MBG 15 WSW GFK 80 NNW GFK ...CONT... 25 NNW ROC 20 SSE ELM 35 ESE IPT 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE WRN UPPER LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND ATTM...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN NEB AND VICINITY. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /4500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF NEB...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORECAST VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN ND / ERN SD / MN IN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AS THIS FEATURE CURVES ESEWD WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT WI / IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH 60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF A BOWING MCS CAN DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL. ...AZ... STORMS CONTINUE PROPAGATING WWD ATTM ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL AZ...WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXIST. LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS / HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DRIVEN BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 02:15:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 21:15:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407130216.i6D2GD103399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130212 SWODY1 SPC AC 130210 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 NNW JVL 20 SE UIN 35 SSW P35 40 NE MCK 30 N LBF 30 ENE PHP MBG 25 S GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 20 SSW HEZ 30 S GWO 35 NW MEM 35 WNW CGI 40 ENE VIH 20 E MKC 20 WNW CNK 40 ENE GLD LAA 55 N 4CR ELP ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS 40 NNE BCE 35 SW ASE 25 WNW 4FC 40 N LAR 50 ESE WRL 55 WSW COD LVM 45 E BIL 30 SSW REJ 30 WNW MBG 15 WSW GFK 80 NNW GFK ...CONT... 25 NNW ROC 20 SSE ELM 35 ESE IPT 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE WRN UPPER LAKES... CORRECTED TO CHANGE ND TO NEB IN FIRST SENTENCE ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB ATTM...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN NEB AND VICINITY. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /4500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF NEB...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORECAST VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN ND / ERN SD / MN IN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AS THIS FEATURE CURVES ESEWD WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT WI / IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH 60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF A BOWING MCS CAN DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL. ...AZ... STORMS CONTINUE PROPAGATING WWD ATTM ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL AZ...WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXIST. LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS / HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DRIVEN BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 06:05:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 01:05:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407130605.i6D65g105246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130603 SWODY1 SPC AC 130600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 30 SW LEX 35 WSW EVV 25 W STL 45 NE P35 55 NE ALO 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 30 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 35 W YKN SPW 40 WNW EAU 75 N IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 35 SW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 WSW HOT 50 NW LIT 20 E HRO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM 30 SSE SGU 10 NNE MLF 35 NNW PIH 25 S 27U 40 E BKE 25 NNW BNO 70 S RDM 50 SSE EUG OLM 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 25 N PIR 15 ENE MHE 25 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 25 ESE BRD 35 NW HIB 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...NERN MO...MUCH OF IL...IN...THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...AND MUCH OF OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE ATTM IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD -- AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE -- AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MID AND UPPER MS / OH VALLEYS...AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED FARTHER W ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MAY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS / UPPER GREAT LAKES... ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF GREATEST THREAT IS DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN ATTM...LARGE-SCALE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST / UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION. STORMS ARE INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF MN / IA...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IF ACTIVITY HAS NOT ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...BOWING STORM CLUSTERS WITH WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOLS SHOULD EVOLVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE REGION -- WITH STRONG / FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER / MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTH OF FLOW AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO / LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG SWRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS IA / NERN MO AND PARTS OF IL / IND...WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST. HOWEVER...STORM MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY BOWS / LINES. IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR ROTATING COMMA HEADS OR SMALLER-SCALE BOWING ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY EXTENDING AS FAR EWD AS THE APPALACHIANS FROM NY SWD TO ERN TN / N GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO SRN SD / NEB... PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MT / WY / NERN CO N OF SURFACE FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THIS REGION. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO ALLOW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS STORMS MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY EVENING...COMBINATION OF MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER FAR SWRN SD / NEB AND DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE. SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL DEVELOP...20 TO 25 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A RAPIDLY SEWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NEB -- WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MORE ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS...PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...AZ... HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN NM / SERN AZ AND NWWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AGAIN THIS PERIOD...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW PERSISTING...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MAY PROPAGATE AS FAR WWD AS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. VERY DEEP / DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 12:52:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 07:52:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407131252.i6DCqg131383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 20 WSW LEX 10 E EVV 25 NW SLO 40 W MLI 45 NE ALO 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 30 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 35 W YKN SPW 40 WNW EAU 75 N IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 35 SW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM 30 SSE SGU 10 NNE MLF 35 NNW PIH 25 S 27U 30 E BKE 60 SSW RDM 30 SSE EUG 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 35 N PIR 25 NE MHE 25 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 25 ESE BRD 35 NW HIB 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME ERN IA...SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI...MUCH OF IL...IND AND OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH/TN VLYS INTO THE CNTRL-NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MN ATTM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SEWD...REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY TO MID MS VLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND EXTEND NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED VCNTY CO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO THE PAC NW. INVERTED TROUGH/CLOSED LOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND WILL MOVE WWD INTO CHIHUAHUA...SONORA AND SRN AZ BY TONIGHT. ...UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS... RATHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND GIANT HAIL ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. AS H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90 METERS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SEWD... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS MORNING. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS 70-75F SURFACE DEW POINTS COINCIDE WITH ERN EDGE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS... TSTMS ARE APT TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. WHILE HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF BOW ECHOS AS THE FLOW BECOMES NWLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. INITIAL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...PRIMARILY FROM ERN IA/SRN WI INTO CNTRL/ NRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG SWRN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE HIGHER AND SMALLER-SCALE ROTATING COMMA HEADS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL QUICKLY INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED IN A SWATH FROM SRN WI...ERN IA ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VLY OVERNIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN THE CONVECTIVE GENERATING LAYER AND THIS MAY AUGMENT WIND PRODUCTION. LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS SHOULD APPROACH THE UPPER OH VLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER SW...12Z OMAHA SOUNDING EXHIBITED A VERY WARM LAYER H85-H7 WITH H7 TEMPERATURE OF 14C. THIS CAP/WARM LAYER MAY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS MO AND WRN IA. BUT...GIVEN A STORM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN SD AND SWRN NEB... A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WAS NOTED ON VAPOR IMAGERY VCNTY NRN/CNTRL UT AND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEWD THEN EWD THROUGH WY AND INTO NEB BY LATE TONIGHT. TSTMS ARE APT TO INCREASE ON THE WY/MT HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S DEW POINTS TODAY BENEATH 8.5 C/KM MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES... CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM NEB PNHDL/ERN WY/SWRN SD AND NWWD TO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MT. REGION WILL LIE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO GIVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING MAY SUSTAIN ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS INTO SRN SD OR NEB OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TREND TOWARD ISOLD LARGE HAILSTONES GIVEN MORE ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS. ...DESERT SW... DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MAGNITUDE OF POSSIBLE GULF SURGE THIS MORNING...THOUGH NAME INSTRUMENT PLATFORMS IN/NEAR THE GULF OF CA DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWAT AND SURFACE PRESSURE SINCE 06Z. ANY SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AZ INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EARLY MORNING VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY TODAY AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TX BIG BEND INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TSTMS MAY CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE INTO THE VLYS OF SCNTRL AZ THIS EVENING. GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE AOB 20 KTS...BUT IF HIGHER SPEEDS EXIST ON N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER COVERAGE WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 16:29:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 11:29:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407131629.i6DGTt101214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131628 SWODY1 SPC AC 131626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 15 SW LEX 40 N BWG 25 NW SLO 30 NE MLI 20 WNW MSN 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 40 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 20 W YKN 20 N FOD 25 WSW EAU 75 N IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLS 50 WSW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 50 SSW ELY 60 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 45 SSE BKE 20 NNE MFR 25 ENE OTH 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 35 SE MBG 15 NNE HON 40 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 10 SSE BRD 30 E BJI RRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO ERN WY.... ...MID WEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH THAT CROSSED SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES IS NOW TURNING SEWD AND WILL DRIVE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALG WI/MN BORDER SWWD INTO NRN NEB AT 15Z. FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E/SEWD TO BE LOCATED FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN MO THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS IA/MO EWD INTO WRN OH VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MDT RISK AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO INITIATING FIRST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NERN WI/UPPER MI...REF WW620...WHERE MID LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT AHEAD IS ONGOING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON....THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ACROSS WRN WI INTO NERN IA...NRN IL. AS THE 50-60 KT 700/500MB WIND MAX DRIVES SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/NERN IA SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXPAND E AND SEWD ACROSS LWR MI/IL INTO WRN OH VALLEY AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TYPICAL OF A DERECHO EVENT. IN ADDITION THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY POSES A THREAT OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALONG WITH BOWHEAD TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET INTO UPR OH VALLEY AND ACROSS OH RIVER INTO NRN KY...GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND WIND MAX. ...MO VALLEY WWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN WY... AS COLD FRONT MOVES MORE SLOWLY SWD THIS AREA...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. UPSLOPE ELYS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND LIFT INTO ERN WY/WRN NEB FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT THESE AREAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME. ...AZ... SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS OCCURRING OVER SWRN U.S. WITH THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER CO PROVIDING DEEP SELYS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND 500MB TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME PROPAGATION FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD REACH INTO TUS/PHX AREAS BY THIS EVENING. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 20:13:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 15:13:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407132013.i6DKDP109028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132009 SWODY1 SPC AC 132008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 35 NW CRW 30 E BWG 30 WSW EVV 30 NE ALN 10 SE MLI 30 ENE MMO 15 SSW MKE 40 N MSN 30 NNW OSH 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 20 SE LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 40 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 20 W YKN 40 E FOD 25 NE LSE 10 N RHI 95 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN 40 SSE MBG 20 SSW HON 20 SSE FRM 45 ENE MSP 10 SSE BRD 30 E BJI RRT ...CONT... 30 WSW GLS 50 WSW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 30 NNE FST 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 55 ENE U31 60 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 45 SSE BKE 20 NNE MFR 25 ENE OTH 35 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LRG PART OF THE GRT LKS AND MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS... ...DELAYED BY COMPUTER PROBLEMS... ...MIDWEST/GRT LKS... AFTN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDING FROM WRN UPR MI S/SW ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO NW IL/SE IA AND NW MO. THIS BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO THE OH VLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER S...A WEAK N/S WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE/REDEVELOP EWD ACROSS IL/WRN IND. A SUPERCELL STORM THAT FORMED INVOF OF THIS FRONT EARLIER TODAY HAS DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER N CNTRL IL...AND THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. MID LEVEL WARMING/INCREASED CAPPING ARE OVERSPREADING WRN IL ATTM...PER 18Z DVN/ILX RAOBS AND STLT DATA. BUT GIVEN DIURNAL INCREASE IN CAPE...FAVORABLE BNDRY LATER ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN IL/IND...AND CURRENT STRENGTH OF NRN IL SUPERCELL...EXPECT THAT STORM...AND ANY OTHERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BNDRY...WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. MEAN WNWLY FLOW AND ORIENTATION OF SURFACE INSTABILITY FIELD SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP SE INTO IND...WITH SOME SIMULTANEOUS UPWIND DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING BACK W INTO CNTRL IL. PROLONGED DISCRETE NATURE OF STORM MODE...AND HIGH MLCAPE /AROUND 4000 J PER KG/...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND...BEFORE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A POSSIBLE DERECHO LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER N...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS. SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DPVA AND 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A DERECHO OVER SRN LWR MI/NRN/CNTRL IND INTO OH LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...CNTRL PLNS... SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN NEB THIS EVENING /REF WW 621/. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BNDRY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BACK-BUILDING AS FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SWD LATER TODAY. FARTHER W...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH 25-30 KT MID LEVEL WNWLY WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER ERN WY/WRN NEB. CAPPING MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS...BUT ACTIVITY NOW FORMING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. ...AZ... A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SRN AZ...AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON S SIDE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER REGION RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS /MLCAPE TO 1100 J PER KG/. ABSENCE OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS...POSSIBLY REFLECTING WEAK SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM BIG BEND UPPER TROUGH... WILL ALLOW FOR UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED WITH MODEST /15 KT/ ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW...SETUP SHOULD ALLOW STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE RIM AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ TO PROPAGATE W INTO THE LWR DESERTS. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF AN OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 01:24:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 20:24:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407140125.i6E1P0127406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140122 SWODY1 SPC AC 140120 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 30 NNE LBE 25 S UNI 10 SE 5I3 25 NW HSS 35 ENE RMG 25 W BHM 20 ESE MEM 35 SW PAH 30 E SLO 25 ESE OWB 45 SW CMH 20 SW CGX 45 ESE MKE 30 N LAN 25 WSW OSC 50 ESE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 15 NE PSK 50 NW AND 15 NNW MCN 35 WSW SEM 30 N JAN 15 SSE FYV 25 NW TOP 40 NNE HLC 35 ESE CYS 45 NNW 4FC 35 WNW CPR 50 N SHR 35 N 4BQ 40 ENE VTN 45 E FOD 30 SW MSN 10 SSW MTW 55 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 20 NNE LFT 20 NE LFK 35 SSE PRX 15 SSE TUL 50 E ICT 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 30 NNE FST 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 50 ENE U31 55 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 55 N 27U 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 10 SSW 9V9 20 S MCW 20 NW LNR 60 SSE DLH 40 NNW ELO. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...NRN IN...SERN IL...KY...TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...OH...AND WRN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES... THREE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- ONE MOVING SEWD ACROSS MO...ONE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI...AND A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS KY TOWARD TN -- SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE / COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. KY BOW ECHO IS MOVING AT NEAR 50 KT...AND SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG / WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR S AS NRN AL / NWRN GA. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY CONTINUE SWD...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF AL / GA / MS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME...AND SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO. MCS SHOULD ROLL SEWD ACROSS NRN IN / OH AND INTO WRY PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SURGES ESEWD WITH TIME. VERY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE / ORGANIZED -- BUT STILL SEVERE -- MCS IS ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS MO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED. ...ERN WY / SWRN SD SEWD INTO NEB... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO SWRN SD / WRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY WINDS AT MID-LEVELS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ...AZ... MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OBSERVED ACROSS SRN AZ TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX / GBN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 06:23:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 01:23:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407140624.i6E6OA117419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140621 SWODY1 SPC AC 140618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MCK BFF 25 S 81V 30 ENE MLS 25 SW DIK 35 NE BUB 30 NNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 35 ESE JAN 60 N LIT 20 ENE UNO 45 NNW CSV 25 ENE HTS 20 ENE JHW 15 ESE ELM 15 SE NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 20 NNW ALI 15 NW CLL 25 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 40 SE TXK 40 ESE PGO 25 NNW FSM 30 ENE BVO HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07 ...CONT... CZZ 20 ESE DAG 40 W MLF 55 SSW TWF 45 WNW SUN 45 S MSO 3TH 35 ESE EPH 35 SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 NNW IWD 20 NW MKT 25 N FOD 30 ENE P35 20 S MVN 20 W SDF 35 NE DAY 45 W TOL 35 SW HTL 60 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THE MIDDLE / SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WITH STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. IN BETWEEN...BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY-STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL EVOLVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH -- INITIALLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH TIME ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. MEANWHILE...THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN EXTEND NWWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...ERN AR / TN / GULF COAST STATES / ATLANTIC COAST STATES / PA... DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS REMNANTS OF STRONG TN VALLEY BOW ARE NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN AL / NWRN GA. STRONG WLY FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION W OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPPRESSED E OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEST FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ALONG LEE TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS ERN VA / THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE QUESTIONS REGARDING LOCATION OF MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 25% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION OF LIKELY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD WOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INSERTED IN LATER FORECASTS ASSUMING SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER WITH TIME. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT ACROSS TN WWD INTO NWRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS / UPPER FORCING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER FEATURE / SECONDARY NWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO MS AND PERHAPS AL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT SSEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO PARTS OF NEB IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / SELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND E OF PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A MINIMUM IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ROTATE CYCLONICALLY SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG NERN EDGE OF UPPER HIGH CENTER. WITH MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THIS REGION BENEATH 25 TO 35 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...AZ / ERN WRN NM... RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NM / ERN AZ. STRONGER /AROUND 25 KT/ ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DESERT SW DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING SOUTH OF UPPER HIGH. THIS COMBINED WEAK WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SWRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 12:59:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 07:59:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407141259.i6ECxT131671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141256 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E JAX 25 W CTY ...CONT... 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 40 E VIH 50 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 20 ENE DUJ 15 NE IPT 35 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SAN 15 ENE DAG 20 ENE P38 55 SSW TWF 50 ENE BOI 45 S MSO 45 NNW 3TH 35 SSW 63S 35 SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 50 N HOU 35 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 25 SE TXK 45 N TXK 15 WSW FSM 10 ENE BVO 10 WSW HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW IWD 20 NW MKT 25 N FOD 40 SW OTM 35 E MDH 50 S SDF 30 ESE DAY 30 WNW TOL 20 SW HTL 15 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...SERN STATES...DEEP SOUTH...TN VLY NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO NY... LEADING EDGE OF TUESDAYS GREAT LAKES MCS WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN NY AND CNTRL PA AT MID-MORNING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TSTMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS ERN PA AND ERN NY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE TODAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN FAST WLY FLOW REGIME /30 KTS/...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...DELMARVA SWD INTO THE SERN STATES... A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SWD INTO THE SERN STATES TODAY. SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO 1/DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 2/ INTENSIFY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT MCS MOVING SEWD TOWARD NRN GA/WRN SC. GIVEN WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+ KTS TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. ...DEEP SOUTH/TN VLY NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES WITH ATTENDANT HIGH WINDS/HAIL. UPSTREAM...CONDITIONAL THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE NOW CROSSING NEB HAS BEEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED NOCTURNAL TSTMS OVER THE MO VLY. AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES SEWD...SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY INITIATE IF LOCAL CONVERGENCE CAN BREACH THE CAP NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VLYS LATER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND LOCATION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN LIMITATION WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT TOPPING THE WRN STATES RIDGE. ...SWRN DESERTS... COMPLICATED SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS TODAY. WEAK MCV HAS EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MARICOPA COUNTY AT 12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO SRN CA TODAY. CLOUD CANOPY WILL GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN AZ THIS MORNING. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING INTO SONORA/SRN AZ LATER TODAY. THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE GULF OF CA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE VLYS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BECOME OWING TO THE CLOUDS THINNING LATER IN THE DAY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MCV MAY AUGMENT TSTMS ACROSS SERN CA INTO SRN NV. THESE TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:22:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:22:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407141623.i6EGNA117434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141621 SWODY1 SPC AC 141618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 50 WNW CGI 35 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 10 ESE BFD 20 NNE IPT 15 N NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 65 NE P07 20 NE MAF 30 WNW LBB 20 WSW DHT 30 SE LAA 25 S RSL 35 SW CNU 20 S FYV 10 WSW HOT 20 W ELD 15 SSE SHV 15 NW LFK 15 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LGB 20 WNW DAG 45 NNE DAG 25 WNW LAS 50 SW P38 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 50 W MBS 20 SE AZO 40 ESE FWA 30 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 35 SSE MVN 30 NE P35 30 ENE OMA 15 SE SUX 40 S FSD 15 SSE BKX 10 NE ATY 50 WSW AXN 20 N AXN 10 SW BRD 40 SW DLH 25 NE DLH 30 NE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN U.S. WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NY/PA TONIGHT WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WRN NY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE TRIPLE POINT DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE N ACROSS NJ WHILE COLD FRONT TO W DROPS INTO LEE TROUGH E OF APPALACHIANS FROM MD SWWD INTO CENTRAL NC. COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN KS AND THEN WNWWD TO ERN CO. ...DELMARVA... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF LEE TROUGH LOCATED VICINITY BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY AND E OF LEE TROUGH TO COAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND INCREASING TO E OF LEE TROUGH...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AROUND 2K FT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AREA. ...TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... FURTHER S THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS DEVELOP UNDER STRONG HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. MUCAPES FROM 2500-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THIS AREA. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH ATTM IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOCATION OF INITIATION...OTHER THAN LIKELY NEAR OR JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...LOWER MO VALLEY NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PERSIST. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ELY FLOW TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. AGAIN STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS EARLY TONIGHT AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS/MO IN NWLY FLOW. ...AZ... WITH CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WEAKER LAPSE RATES NOW PREVAIL IN DESERT VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS WIND DAMAGE TODAY. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 17:19:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 12:19:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407141719.i6EHJx110770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141717 SWODY1 SPC AC 141715 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 50 WNW CGI 35 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 10 ESE BFD 20 NNE IPT 15 N NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 65 NE P07 20 NE MAF 30 WNW LBB 20 WSW DHT 30 SE LAA 25 S RSL 35 SW CNU 20 S FYV 10 WSW HOT 20 W ELD 15 SSE SHV 15 NW LFK 15 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LGB 20 WNW DAG 45 NNE DAG 25 WNW LAS 50 SW P38 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 50 W MBS 20 SE AZO 40 ESE FWA 30 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 35 SSE MVN 30 NE P35 30 ENE OMA 15 SE SUX 40 S FSD 15 SSE BKX 10 NE ATY 50 WSW AXN 20 N AXN 10 SW BRD 40 SW DLH 25 NE DLH 30 NE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN U.S. WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER LINES ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NY/PA TONIGHT WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WRN NY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE TRIPLE POINT DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE N ACROSS NJ WHILE COLD FRONT TO W DROPS INTO LEE TROUGH E OF APPALACHIANS FROM MD SWWD INTO CENTRAL NC. COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN KS AND THEN WNWWD TO ERN CO. ...DELMARVA... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF LEE TROUGH LOCATED VICINITY BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY AND E OF LEE TROUGH TO COAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND INCREASING TO E OF LEE TROUGH...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AROUND 2K FT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AREA. ...TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... FURTHER S THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS DEVELOP UNDER STRONG HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. MUCAPES FROM 2500-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THIS AREA. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH ATTM IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOCATION OF INITIATION...OTHER THAN LIKELY NEAR OR JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...LOWER MO VALLEY NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PERSIST. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ELY FLOW TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. AGAIN STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS EARLY TONIGHT AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS/MO IN NWLY FLOW. ...AZ... WITH CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WEAKER LAPSE RATES NOW PREVAIL IN DESERT VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS WIND DAMAGE TODAY. ..HALES.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:29:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:29:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407142029.i6EKTK130226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142021 SWODY1 SPC AC 142019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SNY 60 SSE 81V 20 NNE 4BQ 30 SW GDV 15 W SDY 35 SW P24 50 NE MBG 25 WSW HON 35 NNE GRI 25 SSE HSI 35 NE HLC 40 SW MCK 35 NE AKO 20 WSW SNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 35 SW GPT 30 SW LUL 15 WSW GLH 30 NW LIT 10 W HRO 40 SSW TBN 10 SSW CGI 20 ENE CKV 35 SW LOZ 30 W BKW 40 SE LBE 35 WSW ELM UCA 25 N POU 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSX 50 SSW LFK 15 SSE SHV 20 W ELD 20 SSW HOT 10 NNW FSM 25 WNW BVO 25 S RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WSW DHT 30 WNW LBB 20 NE MAF 65 NE P07 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 30 SE LGB 30 ESE EDW 40 ENE NID 30 W DRA 60 E TPH 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST ...CONT... 30 NE ELO 25 NE DLH 40 SW DLH 10 ESE RWF 25 NNE SPW 30 S FOD 25 NE LWD 35 WSW UIN 35 SSE MVN 40 ENE OWB 30 W LUK 40 ESE FWA 20 SE AZO 50 W MBS 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 45 N BML PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING EWD/NEWD OVER ERN LAKE ERIE/WRN LAKE ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SWD THRU THE UPPER OHIO AND ERN TN VALLEYS MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SWRN CO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE NWLY FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PA SWD/SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND NWRN GA...THEN WWD ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN MS. A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT REACHES FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER N CENTRAL PA ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NJ. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM SERN NY SWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN EXTENDING WWD THRU CENTRAL GA...AL AND MS BY 15/12Z. ...ERN STATES FROM PA INTO THE CAROLINAS... MORNING MODELS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-115 KT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SEWD INTO S CENTRAL KY THAT WILL EXTEND EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BEFORE TURNING NEWD OFF THE JERSEY COAST. THIS PLACES AREA OF THE DELMARVA IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION AS WELL AS BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 7C/KM. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST VAD WINDS PROFILES...0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100 AND 120 M2/S2 WITH LCL VALUES 3-4K FEET INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...TN VALLEY REGION... COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN MS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TN INTO SRN MO. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THIS BOUNDARY AIDED BY STRONG HEATING WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.0 - 7.5C/KM INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SMALL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MEAN RIDGE FROM NERN MT/SERN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD WITHIN THE NW FLOW INTO SD AND NE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SWRN NE THRU A LOW OVER E CENTRAL MT. MLCAPES ARE MODERATE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG WITH STILL SOME CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL AS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN WY. THUS...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT JUST E OF THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF SD/NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF SRN NV INTO AZ... WEAK ELY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PRESENTED SOME WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN SOME AREAS WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG FROM THE DESERTS INTO SRN NV AND NWRN AZ...AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8.5C/KM. RUC MODEL FORECAST SHOWS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THRU EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 01:11:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 20:11:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150111.i6F1Bp101522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150109 SWODY1 SPC AC 150107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10 WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CRE 50 W AGS ANB 35 WSW MKL 20 SE SGF 20 SSE UMN 35 SE FYV 10 S JAN 35 WSW PNS ...CONT... 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV 40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID 50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:04:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:04:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150204.i6F24C117557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150200 SWODY1 SPC AC 150158 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10 WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID 50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV 40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH ...CONT... 35 WSW PNS 10 S JAN 35 SE FYV 20 SSE UMN 20 SE SGF 35 WSW MKL ANB 50 W AGS 35 SW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE REVERSAL IN SOUTHEAST ...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:11:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:11:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150212.i6F2CB120272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150209 SWODY1 SPC AC 150207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 150205Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10 WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV 40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID 50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH ...CONT... 35 WSW PNS 10 S JAN 35 SE FYV 20 SSE UMN 20 SE SGF 35 WSW MKL ANB 50 W AGS 35 SW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE REVERSAL IN SOUTHEAST ...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 06:01:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 01:01:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150601.i6F61U123083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150559 SWODY1 SPC AC 150557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE IWD 20 SSE CWA 35 WSW LNR 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 45 SSE JMS 65 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE HUM 30 SSW HEZ 30 SE GLH 30 E MEI 35 S CSG 40 SSW ABY 10 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 30 NNW DRA 55 WSW ELY 40 E OWY 75 WSW 27U GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 20 SW SDY 45 ESE DIK 35 NNE JMS 80 NE DVL ...CONT... ANJ 20 ENE MKE 40 NE UIN 40 WNW STL 30 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 20 ENE POU 35 NNE CXY 20 NNE PIT 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 25 NE GLS 30 N GGG 25 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 50 SW CAO 30 NE 4CR 50 WNW CNM 55 NNW MRF 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SEWD AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY...AND WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD INTO THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN GA-SRN MS NWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN SD AND CNTRL/WRN NEB. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS... AN AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS NWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER NE FROM ERN SD INTO MN SE OF THE COLD FRONT. STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB AND ERN KS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE BACKED TO SLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY BE THE INITIAL THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO NE KS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND MOVE SEWD ON COOL SIDE OF NW/SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES... A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...LA...THROUGH SRN AL...NW FL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR ALONG OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAYS STORMS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MLCAPE TO 3500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...WRN MT... ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN MT IN WAKE OF FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PERSISTING BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ENHANCE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 12:49:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 07:49:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407151250.i6FCo7111493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151246 SWODY1 SPC AC 151245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE IWD 20 SSE CWA 35 WSW LNR 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 25 E BIS 40 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE HUM 30 SSW HEZ 30 SE GLH 30 E MEI 35 S CSG 40 SSW ABY 10 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 50 S SAT 45 W HOU 30 WNW BPT 30 N GGG 25 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 50 SW CAO 30 NE 4CR 50 WNW CNM 55 NNW MRF 80 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 30 NNW DRA 55 WSW ELY 40 E OWY 75 WSW 27U GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... ANJ 20 ENE MKE 40 NE UIN 40 WNW STL 30 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 20 ENE POU 35 NNE CXY 20 NNE PIT 45 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY INTO THE SERN STATES... ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY... SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S VCNTY NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OZARKS NWWD INTO THE MO VLY TODAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN DAKS. STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST VCNTY THE MO RVR SWWD WHERE MLCAPES WILL REACH 3500 J/KG. MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NE INTO THE ERN DAKS AND MN. ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS OVER ERN SD AT DAYBREAK WERE BEING DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD. THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN AND COULD FOCUS SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MID/LWR MO RVR VLY. WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A POSSIBLE MCS OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER POTENT IMPULSE VCNTY WINNIPEG SWWD TO SERN SASK IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN MN/ERN DAKS TODAY. TSTMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN DAKS. THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS THAN FARTHER SW...BUT STILL LIKELY GIVE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. COMBO OF DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCED BY WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE DIVIDE IN CO/WY. WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WEAK VORT MAXIMA ROTATE ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT. BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ...WRN/CNTRL MT... OUTFLOW FROM A SASK SURFACE HIGH WILL ENHANCED MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE DIVIDE IN WRN/CNTRL MT TODAY. ALL NIGHT CONVECTION ATTESTS TO THE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ON THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ...LOWER MS VLY-SERN STATES... A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 6.8 DEGREE C/KM ON 12Z LZK/TLH/JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/ IS WRAPPING EWD ALONG BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL MS TO SWRN GA. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 16:07:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 11:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407151607.i6FG7uX31486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151603 SWODY1 SPC AC 151601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 10 NNW EAU 25 SSE RST 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 35 WNW ATY 15 ENE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE HUM 30 NNE BTR 45 W JAN 25 WNW MEI 15 N TOI 35 NW ABY 30 NNE AYS 25 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 40 NW NIR 50 SSW CLL 30 WNW LFK 30 N GGG 50 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW DHT 10 SW CVS 30 WNW HOB 35 SSW INK 80 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 65 ESE U31 15 NNE OWY 65 S S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... ANJ 30 WSW MKG 30 NNW SPI 15 NNW ALN 40 SSE PAH 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON ABE 30 NNE LBE 20 SSW FKL 40 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 15 WSW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 45 NW PHP 40 WSW ABR 50 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND WRN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE RIDGE IN THE W AND TROUGH ALONG E COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SERN U.S. SURFACE/UPPER LOW SERN ONTARIO MOVES SLOWLY DOWN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NRN GA TO NRN AR. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER MO MOVES EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD FROM THE ND/SD BORDER INTO NEB BY TONIGHT. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES S OF FRONTAL ZONE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A RIBBON OF THIS AIRMASS EXTENDING NWD THRU THE PLAINS W OF MO SURFACE HIGH AS FAR N AS THE ND/SD LOW AND FRONT. ...CENTRAL U.S... WITH THE 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW W OF SURFACE HIGH AND TO S OF DAKOTA FRONT AND LOW...VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO LOW 70S AS FAR N AS SD...A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM OR GREATER...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD NEB. PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT LAPSE RATES VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY HIGH. AS IS TYPICAL IN A NWLY FLOW PATTERN...SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY IF A COLD POOL DRIVEN MCS DEVELOPS. ...MT... MONSOON MOISTURE HAS MOVED RAPIDLY N/NEWD THRU INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SRN MT WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW AROUND AN INCH. LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE RIDGE AXIS WRN AND CENTRAL MT. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES/LWR MS VALLEY... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ERN GULF STATES TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS PRESENT. REF MCD 1684. FURTHER W TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY... STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALSO WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS. SHEAR A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS ARE LIKELY. ...AZ... MOISTURE CONTINUES HIGH MUCH OF AZ. STRONGER HEATING TODAY WITH LACK OF DESERT CONVECTION WED...WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PROPAGATION OFF THE MTNS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS TODAY. MODIFYING MORNING SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON YIELDS MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG DESERT VALLEYS ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM. WITH 10-20 KT E/SELY STEERING FLOW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SCENTRAL DESERTS BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN STILL WARM 500 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 7 AND FAVORABLE BUT STILL WEAK STEERING FLOW...WILL INDICATE JUST 5 PERCENT SEVERE COVERAGE FOR DOWNBURSTS WINDS AND HAIL ATTM. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 20:21:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 15:21:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407152021.i6FKLnX31988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152017 SWODY1 SPC AC 152015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 10 NNW EAU 25 SSE RST 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 35 WNW ATY 15 ENE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ESE HUM 30 NNE BTR 45 W JAN 25 WNW MEI 15 N TOI 35 NW ABY 30 NNE AYS 25 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 30 WSW MKG 30 NNW SPI 15 NNW ALN 40 SSE PAH 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... GON ABE 30 NNE LBE 20 SSW FKL 40 WSW ERI ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 15 WSW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 45 NW PHP 40 WSW ABR 50 N DVL ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 65 ESE U31 15 NNE OWY 65 S S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... LRD 40 NW NIR 50 SSW CLL 30 WNW LFK 30 N GGG 50 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW DHT 10 SW CVS 30 WNW HOB 35 SSW INK 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MT.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. THIS IS RESULTING IN A NWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN U.S. MEANWHILE SWLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER NRN VT SWD THROUGH ERN NY AND NJ INTO ERN NC. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES WWD AND NWWD THRU CENTRAL GA AND AL INTO NWRN AR BECOMING WARM FRONTAL INTO S CENTRAL NE. A LOW IS OVER ERN SD WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO SWRN NE AND NERN CO. ...GULF COAST REGION FROM SERN LA INTO NRN FL... AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE JUST N OF THE GULF COASTAL AREAS WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CARVED OUT AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.0C/KM ACROSS THIS REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST RUC MODEL CONTINUES SLOW SWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL/NRN MS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS AREA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL NE INTO N CENTRAL KS AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AIR MASS IS MOSTLY E OF WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SD INTO NERN CO. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE ERN EDGES OF THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RUN MODEL INDICATES SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO NRN WY WILL AID IN THE INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.0C/KM...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR NEAR THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE MAY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING STORMS. ...WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MT... MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-45 KT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM UNDERNEATH SWLY 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE SOUNDING ALSO SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5C/KM ON NWWD EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SWRN MT. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG FAVORING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ...PARTS OF AZ... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN AZ WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS WRN AZ THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 01:07:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 20:07:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407160107.i6G17TX09393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160103 SWODY1 SPC AC 160101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW HVR 20 WNW LWT 45 NNW COD 30 S WEY 45 WSW MQM 15 W MSO 80 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CMX 60 W RHI 30 W RST 20 E P35 UNO 25 SW MEM 45 SW TCL 15 W ABY 20 N TLH 15 W AQQ ...CONT... 15 SSE HUM 25 SW ELD 40 ESE ICT 35 WSW RSL 20 SW GLD 25 E AKO 20 E SNY 40 SSW MHN 20 SE ANW 25 SSE 9V9 40 SE MBG 30 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 35 WNW MLS 25 ESE 4BQ 20 SSW MBG 25 NNW JMS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 NW ANJ 30 WNW CGX 40 E BRL 45 E VIH 20 N MEM TCL 35 SE CSG 65 NNW AYS 15 SSW CHS ...CONT... 60 S CRP 20 NNW ALI 40 NW NIR 50 W LFK 15 S TXK 30 SSE PNC 30 N GAG 10 S CAO 50 WSW TCC 35 N CNM 25 SW FST 85 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 40 S BAM 50 WNW SUN 25 E S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BOS 10 ESE BAF 30 W EWR 35 WNW ABE 20 NNW IPT 25 NW ELM 40 ENE ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN MT... ...ERN SD THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW IN NERN SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN KS. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM ERN KS...ERN NEB INTO ERN SD. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH ERN KS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT... RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MID EVENING WITH BEST TORNADO THREAT FROM ERN NEB INTO SE SD...WRN IA AND NE KS. OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD AND FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM SERN NEB...WRN IA...NE KS AND NW MO. THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS WITH PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL LATER TONIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH GULF COAST AREA... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN AL...SRN MS AND NWWD INTO CNTRL AR. THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING SHOWED MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ALONG OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME BACKBUILDING NWWD INTO SW MO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION REMAIN LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT...SUGGESTING DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MN WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND VEERED TO WLY AND IS LIMITING CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT. INSTABILITY IS ALSO WEAK AND GENERALLY AOB 1500 J/KG. THESE FACTORS ARE SERVING TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN MN WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. ...WRN MT... IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER IN CANADA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN MN WHERE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ... STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SE AZ MAY CONTINUE WWD INT THE LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS SRN AZ. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 06:07:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 01:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407160607.i6G67xX02326@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160604 SWODY1 SPC AC 160602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW OLF 30 NNW 4BQ 20 NNW SHR 40 NE WEY 15 SSE HLN 50 NNE 3DU 45 WNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 7R4 15 NNE SHV 35 SE MKO 25 SSW END 20 SE CAO 45 E TAD 35 NW LAA 35 SSW RSL 15 NNE STJ 30 NNE DBQ 40 SSE MKE 15 WSW FWA 30 ESE BWG 25 NW MSL 40 WSW TCL 25 NE DHN 20 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW GLS 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 15 SE PRX 15 E FSI 40 NW CDS 25 SW CVS 25 NNW CNM 50 N MRF 100 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 65 N MOT 30 S BIS 15 SE PIR 25 ENE ANW 25 E BUB 10 SE OFK 20 SE SUX 20 WNW FOD 10 ENE MCW 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 NE NEL 10 ENE LBE 35 WNW EKN 20 NNE BKW 45 S PSK 30 SE CLT 20 SW FLO 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MT... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S... A SURFACE FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS PLAINS...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH ERN IA...NRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS FRONT IS DIFFUSE WITH 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH AR AND INTO NE OK OR SW MO. THESE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARIES FROM THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK. STORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS WRN IA AND NRN MO MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS SRN MO BY 12Z. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR OR NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SRN MO OR NRN AR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SRN IA AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD. A LARGE MCS CURRENTLY PERSISTS ACROSS WRN KS AND CONTINUES DEVELOPING SEWD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR SERN KS INTO NRN OK. MOREOVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF KS AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN OK...ERN KS INTO MO AND AR WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS FARTHER S ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD INTO PARTS OF LA. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS AREA AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...MT... UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY IN THIS REGION AND WILL TEND TO SHUNT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES NWD INTO CANADA... LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT FOR MT. HOWEVER...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS CNTRL MT UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS... THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES S OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. THIS AND LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SRN MANITOBA WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE FROM SRN WI SWD THROUGH IL/IND...AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT 0-6 SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MODEST INSTABILITY SHEAR MAY TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ...AZ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD WWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS. ..DIAL.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 12:20:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 07:20:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407161220.i6GCKRX12177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161217 SWODY1 SPC AC 161215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE LIT 45 S JBR 20 W MEM 25 WSW UOX 40 NNE JAN 45 W JAN 15 ESE MLU 20 NE ELD 20 ENE HOT 35 N LIT 50 NNE LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ADM 10 E LTS 20 ESE AMA CAO 10 W LHX DDC SLN CNK LNK 10 WSW DSM DBQ MSN 10 ESE MKG 10 NNE FDY 10 E DAY HUF ALN COU 15 ESE OJC 35 N JLN 20 ENE SGF 20 SE TBN 40 SSE CGI MSL BHM 10 SSE AUO DHN 15 NNE MOB 35 ENE MSY 30 SSE POE 10 S TXK 30 SSE MLC 35 W ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N MOT 30 S BIS 15 SE PIR 25 ENE ANW 25 E BUB 10 SE OFK 20 SE SUX 20 WNW FOD 10 ENE MCW 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 NE NEL 10 ENE LBE 35 WNW EKN 20 NNE BKW 45 S PSK 30 SE CLT 20 SW FLO 40 N HSE ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 35 SSW PRX 30 NNW MWL 50 SSE CDS 25 SW CVS 25 NNW CNM 50 N MRF 100 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.... LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST IN UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. HIGHEST HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH RIDGE SHARPENING SOME ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. IN RESPONSE...STRONGER BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...WHICH TOPPED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE YESTERDAY...IS ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WHILE ANOTHER PERTURBATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. LATTER FEATURE...ENHANCED BY ASSOCIATED LARGE CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER YESTERDAY EVENING...EMANATED FROM SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY...JUST UPSTREAM OF SYSTEM DIGGING FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE OZARKS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTEND IN TONGUE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS IS BENEATH NOSE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG CONDITIONAL/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/SOME HAIL...WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF LARGE STRONG COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLY ALABAMA...BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR MORE STABLE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WHILE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS MOIST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60F...DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH MODERATELY SHEARED...RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MONTANA... NEAR/JUST EAST OF CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH HEATING IN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS PRIMARY THREATS. ...ARIZONA... WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS ON WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY MID/UPPER STEERING FLOW...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MICROBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK FOR SOME HAIL. ..KERR/GUYER.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 16:15:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 11:15:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407161615.i6GGFiX11780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161612 SWODY1 SPC AC 161610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW JBR 45 S JBR 20 W MEM 50 WSW CBM 25 ESE JAN 25 NNE HEZ 15 SSW MLU 20 NE ELD 25 SSW LIT 25 N LIT 60 SSW JBR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUF 25 ENE JEF 35 NNE SZL 10 E LWD 30 E DSM 30 W CID 10 SW DBQ 25 NE JVL 20 ENE MKE 25 WSW MKG 10 E AZO 35 NE FWA 20 SSW DAY 10 SSE HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MSY 40 NE LCH 25 SSE SHV 45 NW TXK 40 WSW MLC 30 NW FSI 55 W CSM 65 WSW GAG 30 ESE LBL 20 W P28 25 ESE ICT CNU 15 NE UMN 30 WSW UNO 35 WSW POF 15 WNW DYR 45 SE MKL 30 NW BHM 35 NNE SEM 35 SW TOI 15 NNW CEW 40 E MSY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 40 ESE Y22 40 WNW BBW 40 NNE HLC OMA 15 S RST 20 NE IWD ...CONT... 10 SE ACY DOV 10 ESE BWI 15 SSE HGR 10 ESE PIT 20 SW HLG 15 SSE TRI 30 WNW AHN 40 NE MCN 40 SSE AGS 30 S FLO 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 50 E PSX 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 45 SSE PRX 40 SSW CDS 40 ENE LVS 10 NNW LVS 10 ESE SAF 20 ENE ABQ 35 ESE TCS 15 W ELP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN AR INTO NRN AND CENTRAL MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN RIDGE CONTINUES WITH BROAD TROUGH ERN U.S. NWLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM NCENTRAL U.S. TO THE SERN STATES. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV OVER WRN KS. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI SWWD THRU WRN KS TO SRN CO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD . OVERNIGHT MCS NOW MOVING FROM MO INTO AR WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THRU THE DAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOWER MS VALLEY. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... LEADING EDGE OF MCS HAS MOVED INTO NRN AR AND EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG RESIDE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE MCS CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD MS. WILL CONTINUE MDT RISK FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TAKE THE MCS TO THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING. WELL DEFINED MCV OVER KS WILL MOVE S OF E TOWARD NERN OK AND WRN AR BY THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD VICINITY OK/KS BORDER WILL BE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION OF THE MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS KS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS OK ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE WARMEST PART OF AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9C/KM DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORMS. STORMS COULD THEN EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS AS THEY TRACK BACK INTO AR TONIGHT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ...MID WEST... REF MCD 1706 WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY ATTM...WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND S OF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD FROM NRN WI TO SWRN IA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK BUT THERE IS NEARLY A 100KT HIGH LEVEL NWLY JET OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION TO STORMS IN THE FORM OF SHORT LINES/BOWS AS THEY TRACK SE ACROSS MID MS/WRN OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BY LATE EVENING. ...AZ... NOTICEABLE MID LEVEL COOLING PAST 24 HOURS ON AZ 12Z SOUNDINGS. WITH AIR MASS REMAINING VERY MOIST...MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ELY/SELY STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING STORMS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER WITH ONLY 10-15 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOW. GIVEN THE MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF LATER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER STEERING FLOW THAN NOW EXPECTED THEN AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED. ...NRN ROCKIES... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON TOP OF THE LARGE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS FROM THE HIGH BASED STORMS. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 21:11:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 16:11:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407162111.i6GLBVX00426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162058 SWODY1 SPC AC 162056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HOT 40 N GWO 45 SW CBM 25 NE LUL 25 NNE MCB 30 W HEZ 40 E SHV 30 SSW HOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW BVE 40 ESE LFT 40 NE LCH 35 NE LFK 15 ENE MLC 10 NNE MKO 50 WSW ARG 40 SSW JBR 10 WSW MEM 45 WNW MSL 50 SSE MSL 30 W LGC 10 ESE TOI 20 NE CEW 40 WSW PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CID 10 ESE MSN 40 W MKG 15 S GRR 15 S JXN 30 W FDY 30 W DAY 35 SW HUF 30 E COU 35 W COU 35 S P35 30 SSW DSM 25 NNE CID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FLG 50 NNW SAD 15 SSW SAD 40 S SAD 30 W TUS 55 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SW IGM 55 NNW PRC 15 S FLG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 45 SSE PRX 40 SSW CDS 40 ENE LVS 10 NNW LVS 10 ESE SAF 20 ENE ABQ 35 ESE TCS 15 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 40 ESE Y22 40 NNE LBF 30 NE DDC 25 E P28 30 W CNU 30 NE OMA 40 ESE EAU 20 NE IWD ...CONT... 10 SE ACY DOV 10 ESE BWI 15 SSE HGR 10 ESE PIT 20 SW HLG 15 SSE TRI 30 WNW AHN 40 NE MCN 40 SSE AGS 30 S FLO 35 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN/SERN AR...NERN LA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM MS INTO WRN AL. THE CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN MS AND ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EACH HAVE COLD POOLS WITH THEM...BUT THEY ARE NOT VERY STRONG. THE STORMS ACROSS NRN MS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SSEWD INTO THE EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...DUE TO DECREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL FROM ONGOING STORMS AND WEAK COLD POOL WITH NRN MS STORM CLUSTER. HOWEVER...THE 18Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA AND WRN MS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THUS...A MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THESE REGIONS WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL AR AND NERN LA. AN MCV CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SSEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...WITH INITIATION POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT OVER NERN-ERN OK OR INTO WRN AR BY EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK INHIBITION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. 18Z ETA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR A BOW ECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. ...MIDWEST... AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI/ERN IA AND NRN IL/NERN MO IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS NERN WI ATTM. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COMBINED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. ...AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL MCV OVER CENTRAL AZ EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH NEW STORMS EXPECTED AND STRONG HEATING IN THE DESERT VALLEYS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1711. ...NRN ROCKIES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMBINED WITH NRN EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ..PETERS.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 01:10:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 20:10:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407170110.i6H1AIX07106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170107 SWODY1 SPC AC 170105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SGU 35 WSW GCN 40 W SOW 45 N TUS 70 S GBN 40 S EED 45 SSW LAS 25 N DRA 40 WNW P38 20 ENE P38 35 SSE SGU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 35 N POE 35 WSW PGO 30 W FSM 30 E FYV 10 WSW MEM 50 N MEI 30 W PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW P24 10 W P24 20 E DIK 35 SSE MLS 15 WSW BIL 20 NNE 3HT 40 NNE LWT 15 SW OLF 50 NNW P24. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 45 ESE MOT 25 NW VTN 45 NNW GAG 35 ESE AMA 60 WSW TCC 30 E TCS 35 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 N LFK 20 NNW DAL 15 NW OKC SLN 25 E DSM 40 WSW CWA 15 ESE APN ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 35 N BWI 20 SSE LBE 30 WNW EKN 30 NE 5I3 50 NNE ATL 35 N MCN 50 S AGS 40 NNW CHS 15 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF AZ AND NV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN MS...THEN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL AR. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z RAOB SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7C AT 6 KM. AN MCV CENTERED OVER NE OK WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF AR...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED. FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESPONSE FROM THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 20 OR 25 KT...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT STILL EXISTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...AZ THROUGH SRN NV... STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING WWD THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SRN AZ AND INTO SRN NV. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY S OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LIMITED AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 02:09:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 21:09:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407170209.i6H29tX24421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170204 SWODY1 SPC AC 170202 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SGU 35 WSW GCN 40 W SOW 45 N TUS 70 S GBN 40 S EED 45 SSW LAS 25 N DRA 40 WNW P38 20 ENE P38 35 SSE SGU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 35 N POE 35 WSW PGO 30 W FSM 30 E FYV 10 WSW MEM 50 N MEI 30 W PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW P24 10 W P24 20 E DIK 35 SSE MLS 15 WSW BIL 20 NNE 3HT 40 NNE LWT 15 SW OLF 50 NNW P24. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 45 ESE MOT 25 NW VTN 45 NNW GAG 35 ESE AMA 60 WSW TCC 30 E TCS 35 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 N LFK 20 NNW DAL 15 NW OKC SLN 25 E DSM 40 WSW CWA 15 ESE APN ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 35 N BWI 20 SSE LBE 30 WNW EKN 30 NE 5I3 50 NNE ATL 35 N MCN 50 S AGS 40 NNW CHS 15 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF AZ AND NV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN MS...THEN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL AR. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z RAOB SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7C AT 6 KM. AN MCV CENTERED OVER NE OK WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF AR...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED. FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESPONSE FROM THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 20 OR 25 KT...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT STILL EXISTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...AZ THROUGH SRN NV... STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING WWD THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SRN AZ AND INTO SRN NV. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY S OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LIMITED AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 05:55:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 00:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407170555.i6H5teX18515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170553 SWODY1 SPC AC 170551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BPT 45 S LFK 55 WNW LFK 20 NNE TYR 30 SSW ELD 15 NE GWO 35 WSW MSL 45 ESE BNA 40 E CHA 40 NE ATL 25 NE MGM 30 SSW LUL GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 40 WSW LNK 30 WNW SLN 20 NW P28 20 SSW OKC 10 WSW PGO 20 E UNO 20 S DEC 35 ESE ESC 25 NW ANJ ...CONT... 20 W PSX 50 WSW HDO 15 NE P07 ALM SVC 45 E DUG ...CONT... 10 NNE YUM 35 ESE LAS 20 E DRA 25 SW BIH 65 SE RBL 30 SSW MFR 25 ENE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SERN STATES THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND E TX... UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN U.S. MAINTAINING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AND INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY OH SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. MCS MAY BE ONGOING WITH POSSIBLE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS BY 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY COVER PART OF THE SERN STATES DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA...LIMITING OR DELAYING DESTABILIZATION. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OF THE MCS AHEAD OF SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MS NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SEWD MOVING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 30 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS...BUT STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZED INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM LA WWD INTO E TX WHERE A RESERVOIR OF UNUSED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES ERN NC INTO ERN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RICHER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE SPREADING INLAND THROUGH ERN NC...AND THIS MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD INTO PARTS OF SERN VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...POSSIBLY AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH THREAT OF MAINLY WET MICROBURSTS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...NW U.S.... ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NWRN U.S. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 12:41:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 07:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407171241.i6HCfuX27492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171239 SWODY1 SPC AC 171237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEM 45 ENE MEI 40 SW CBM 30 SSW UOX 35 S MKL 45 N MSL 35 SSE BNA 10 SW CSV 10 WNW AVL 45 NNW FLO 30 W CRE 15 NW SAV 35 ENE CSG SEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CTB 10 ESE LVM 50 SSW COD 45 N CPR 30 SSE 4BQ 15 N Y22 65 NNE BUB 30 WNW SLN 15 S P28 25 ENE FSI 50 NW TXK 45 ENE PBF 25 S DNV 50 WNW MKG 40 W ANJ ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 55 WSW HDO 10 SSE FST 10 W ALM SVC 45 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 55 SW LAS 60 NW NID 65 SE RBL 35 SW MFR 25 ENE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CENTER OF HIGHER HEIGHTS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING INTO THE LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. ...GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.. COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO EXTENSIVE PRIOR CONVECTION AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION TODAY...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR 70F ALONG PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH... WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...BEFORE WAVE CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE MAGNITUDE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUGGESTED BY GFS...SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST/INCREASE OVERNIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES... PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OFF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG HEATING...AND WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. PERTURBATIONS MIGRATING AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...ONE NOW NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...ANOTHER LIFTING INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA ...PERHAPS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF PLATEAU/ROCKIES THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 16:22:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 11:22:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407171622.i6HGMbX27233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171619 SWODY1 SPC AC 171617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW DVL 40 E PIR 40 NW OFK 25 ESE HSI 55 NNW GCK 50 SSE CDS 35 N MWL 25 SSW PRX 35 SSW HOT 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN ...CONT... 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 25 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CTB 30 SE LVM 35 SSW LND 35 NNE LAR 55 W CDR 40 N 81V 50 N GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINS OVER ROCKIES WITH CENTER OVER NRN NM. BROAD TROUGH ERN U.S. WITH UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS OH MOVING LITTLE. WEAK S/WV TROUGHS DROPPING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO N TX WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE SEWD. ...GULF STATES AND SERN U.S... S OF COLD FRONT AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND VARIABLY UNSTABLE. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE GULF STATES TO S OF FRONT THIS MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY. RICH TROPICAL INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE AROUND 20KT OF FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PULSE STORM MODE. WITH MLCAPES BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. INLAND GULF STATES...SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS 30KT OF 500MB FLOW AND 60-70KT 300 MB JET MAX MOVES THRU BOTTOM OF TROUGH POSITION. HOWEVER WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES 6C/KM OR LESS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO E OF NRN ROCKIES LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND MDT/STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WRN SD/NEB AND MOVE SEWD ON THE E SIDE OF WRN RIDGE. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION COULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA TONIGHT WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. ...INTERIOR WRN U.S... MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NWD ON THE W SIDE OF ROCKIES RIDGE. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS STORMS MOVE INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 20:01:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 15:01:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407172001.i6HK1xX24207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171959 SWODY1 SPC AC 171957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM ...CONT... 65 NW DVL 40 E PIR 40 NW OFK 25 ESE HSI 55 NNW GCK 50 SSE CDS 40 WNW MWL 40 NNW TYR 30 NW ELD 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S. AND GULF STATES INTO TN VALLEY... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OH VALLEY. BAND OF 35 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDED FROM ERN NEB/ERN KS TO ACROSS THE OZARKS...WITH 30 KT OF FLOW OVER THE INLAND GULF STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE STRONGER UPSTREAM FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AFTER 03Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST TO COASTAL AREAS OF GA TO SRN NC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITHIN THIS AREA...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. FURTHER N ACROSS ERN TN AND THE INLAND GULF COAST STATES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER. THUS...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THIS TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN MT TO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT TO THE BLACK HILLS OF NERN WY/ WRN SD. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A THREAT ALSO FOR DEVELOPMENT IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN/ AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE U.S...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY IN SRN CANADA MAY SUPPORT A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA TONIGHT. ...INTERIOR WRN STATES... MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE VALLEYS THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 04:02:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 23:02:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407180402.i6I42JX19381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180056 SWODY1 SPC AC 180054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 40 E PIR 40 NNE BUB 50 SSW HSI 45 SSW RSL 35 WSW CSM 25 S SPS 40 NNW TYR 30 NW ELD 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN ...CONT... 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN CAROLINAS... FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD INTO THE REGION HAS HELPED MAINTAIN STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS THIS EVENING FROM THE SC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG / OBSERVED ON THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE WEAK AND LESS THAN MOIST ADIABATIC. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS DELTA REGION SWWD INTO CNTRL TX /N OF AUS/. STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF TX PORTION OF FRONT...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG EWD INTO NRN LA. ONGOING STORMS FROM NWRN MS INTO NRN LA AND E-CNTRL TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER COLD POOLS. GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/FORWARD-PROPAGATION POTENTIAL...THUS ONLY WARRANTING LOW PROBABILITIES. ...NERN NM INTO THE TX PNHDL... LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SEWD ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE/WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL. THOUGH 00Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4KM AGL...OVERALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WAS RELATIVELY WEAK. MOREOVER...LAPSE RATES AT OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC WERE LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING COLD POOL OVER NERN NM. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN ND /NE OF DIK/ WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING. ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED. ...NRN ROCKIES... TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE GREAT BASIN NWD INTO ERN WA AND ID WITHIN PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. THOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ONLY MARGINAL...00Z BOI SOUNDING INDICATED A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 600MB WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 05:21:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 00:21:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407180521.i6I5LNX07577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180519 SWODY1 SPC AC 180517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE MQT 45 NNW GRB 25 ENE LSE 35 SSE RWF 25 NW ABR 60 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 60 NE PHX 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 NNE FAT 30 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 35 SSE OTH 30 E BLI ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 30 ESE VOK 30 SE GRI 20 NNE EAR 25 NW REJ 30 NNW 4BQ 20 SW SHR 40 SSE CPR 30 SSE GLD 10 NW DDC 25 WSW CSM 10 WNW BWD 10 ENE CLL 20 N POE 20 SSW JAN 45 SW 0A8 15 NNW BHM 45 SSE MKL 25 SW PAH 20 NNW MTO 30 NNE BEH 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 30 WSW CNM 15 SSE TCS 30 WSW SVC 40 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DOMINANT FEATURES BEING DEEP TROUGH IN THE E AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL LIFT NEWD FROM MEAN TROUGH POSITION ACROSS MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA REGION TODAY. FARTHER NW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH / CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA / WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSES NEWD ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM SC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY EARLY EVENING WITH TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING REINFORCED ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL PROGRESS SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS N-CNTRL MN/CNTRL ND AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE MCS HAS EVOLVED TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE ND OR MN BORDER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS THAT MOVES SEWD OUT OF S-CNTRL CANADA DURING THE DAY AND/OR WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 150-250 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH...SUGGESTING THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BOWING STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS NRN INTO CNTRL MN WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CO-EXIST. DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD SPREAD AS FAR E AS WRN UP OF MI INTO NRN/CNTRL WI OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WHICH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION INTO CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS... STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NWD FROM THE DELMARVA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE AREA. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF HIGH-LEVEL FLOW OF 80-90KTS WITH 30-40KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK. ...NRN ROCKIES... RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500 J/KG. APPROACH OF PACIFIC NW MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE BEST INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 12:21:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 07:21:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407181221.i6ICLuX25882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181219 SWODY1 SPC AC 181217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 25 WNW RHI MSP 45 NNE ATY GFK 65 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 30 N MRF 50 NNW SVC 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG ...CONT... 15 WSW YUM 20 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 65 W DRA 60 NW NID 40 ENE SAC 25 NNE RBL 50 ESE EKA 35 SSE OTH 30 E BLI ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 25 E VOK 10 SSE MCW 30 SE SUX 30 NW OMA 25 WSW EMP 10 SW HUT 20 W RSL 35 E REJ 30 NNW 4BQ 20 SW SHR 40 SSE CPR 50 ESE LIC LBL 30 ENE CDS 20 NE SEP 30 SSW LFK BTR 30 NNE MOB 30 WSW TOI 25 ENE ANB 25 NNW CHA 40 E MDH 15 NNW DEC 35 W BEH 40 SE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.... IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE VANCOUVER ISLAND/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC... WILL PROGRESS AROUND CREST OF RIDGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS TOPPING RIDGE IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR VORTEX. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO ONTARIO BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BORDER...DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING AROUND EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OF CIRCULATION... ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WEAKENING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...AND AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA ...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS MAY CAP POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. INHIBITION WILL REMAIN WEAKER ACROSS MINNESOTA...AND LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND/THERMAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA BORDER MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON NOSE OF NORTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THIS EVENING...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. COOLER LOWER-LEVELS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ,,,SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO BE QUITE WEAK...BUT 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING BY EARLY EVENING. SHEAR MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST IN STRONGER CELLS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. RISK OF HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER DRY IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURSTS...AS HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER FORCING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MONTANA...BENEATH WEAK WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. THREAT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...DUE TO RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUNSET. IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE...STRONG HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURSTS AS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EAST OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST...MAY FAVOR STRONGER DOWNBURSTS...BUT OVERALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 16:23:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 11:23:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407181623.i6IGNrX25705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181618 SWODY1 SPC AC 181617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CMX 40 S IWD 25 ESE STC 45 SW AXN GFK 80 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 10 ESE EAU 40 W RWF 30 NNE PHP 15 NE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GAG 25 W LTS 55 E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 25 W TYS 20 S EVV LAF 15 ESE GRR 20 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF 30 SW 4CR 65 NNE SAD 20 WSW DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... LILLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVER INTERIOR W AND BROAD TROUGH MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EWD ERN U.S. UPPER LOW OFF W COAST MOVING NNEWD INTO SWRN B.C. BY MON MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE IS EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW ON W SIDE OF RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO CANADA WILL HAVE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY N OF BORDER. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND THIS AFTERNOON INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND AID IN DESTABILIZATION PROCESS NRN MS VALLEY..BUT ALSO PROMOTE CAPPING. MAIN S/WV TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER TROUGH. ...NRN MN... OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING INTO NWRN MN WEAKENING...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE HEATING PROCESS. MODELS BRING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT INTO NRN MN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION NOTED AT THE 850MB LEVEL AT 12Z NRN PLAINS...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE EWD ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A MCS DURING EVENING...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE N OVER CANADA. ..MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THIS AREA AS S/WV MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING E OF APPALACHIANS...THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...WRN U.S... CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW WARMING THIS PM OVER INTERIOR NWRN U.S. AS WEAK S/WV TROUGH MOVES THRU NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR NWRN U.S...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND REDUCED SURFACE HEATING. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 20:14:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 15:14:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407182014.i6IKEYX24187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182005 SWODY1 SPC AC 182003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DLH 25 ESE STC 45 SW AXN 40 SSE JMS 80 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF 30 SW 4CR 75 NNW SVC 50 E DUG ...CONT... 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 10 ESE EAU 40 W RWF 30 NNE PHP 15 NE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GAG 25 W LTS 55 E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 40 W CSV 20 S EVV LAF 25 NNW AZO 20 NNE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN... ...ERN ND/NRN MN... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS MOVED SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MN...AWAY FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA TO CENTRAL ND...WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/. MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/ WRN MN COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS EWD ACROSS NRN MN. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ND/MANITOBA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 00Z...WITH STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN BETWEEN 00-03Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES SEWD. 40 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN THE FURTHER WWD EXPECTED STORM INITIATION...THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD INTO ERN ND. CONTINUED WAA OVERNIGHT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS NRN MN. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM SRN GA ENEWD TO FAR SRN NC. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. 30-35 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE... BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST. ..PETERS.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 00:45:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 19:45:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407190045.i6J0jVX31188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190042 SWODY1 SPC AC 190040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW IWD 35 NE MSP 30 S RWF 25 NNE 9V9 30 SSW MBG 35 NW MBG 40 WNW GFK 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF 30 SW 4CR 75 NNW SVC 50 E DUG ...CONT... 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 20 NW LSE 20 NW OMA 45 SSW MHN 15 SSE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 50 S LBL 20 NNE CDS 55 E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 40 W CSV 20 S EVV LAF 25 NNW AZO 30 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN ND WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CURRENT GRAND FORKS VWP INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 45-55KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 200-250 M2/S2. THOUGH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...COMBINATION OF MODESTLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL SD. DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR POSSIBLY AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN /CNTRL MN AND POSSIBLY INTO ERN SD...THOUGH CAP IS PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WITH WRN EXTENT /PER 00Z ABR SOUNDING/. ...VA/NC/SC PIEDMONT REGION... CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF WEAK UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. PRESENCE OF 30-35KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 05:34:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 00:34:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407190534.i6J5Y0X12391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190532 SWODY1 SPC AC 190530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MKT 30 NW OSH 45 ENE MKE 25 WSW CGX 20 N PIA OTM 55 WNW DSM 10 NE SPW 25 E MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 81V 25 WNW REJ 35 ESE DIK 15 ESE BIS 45 NE MBG 35 SSE MBG 35 WSW PHP 40 SW RAP 30 SE 81V. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN ABY 15 ESE AHN 30 SSW JKL 40 SSE MIE 25 NW HUF 55 SSW STL 30 ESE UMN 30 SW EMP 30 WNW GRI 40 SW MHN 25 SE SNY LIC 35 S EHA 40 E SJT 60 NE MFE ...CONT... 70 SSE MRF 35 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 30 SE SAD 10 WSW DUG ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 55 ENE PHX 50 NW PRC 15 SW P38 25 SE TPH 15 SW BIH 30 W TVL 25 N MHS 40 NE MFR 15 NW DLS 55 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH EJECTING STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM /CURRENTLY OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS/ INTO SWRN CANADA WILL LEAD TO FLATTENING OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. IN THE E...DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE N-CNTRL PART OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL UP OF MI SWWD INTO NWRN IA BY EARLY EVENING. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN ARC BACK TO THE NW TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN MT OR WRN SD. IN THE E...SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH TRAILING PORTIONS SAGGING SWD ACROSS SERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. ...UPPER MIDWEST... MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO WRN WI WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OR DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER NE ALONG FRONT OVER NRN WI/UP OF MI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT DEEP-LAYER FORCING MORE INTENSE. SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE BUT STRONGER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MN AND IA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES YIELDING 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO CLUSTERS TONIGHT WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL AND POSSIBLY NRN MO. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITHIN ASCENT REGION OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT/NRN WY TODAY...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING LAPSE RATES AND AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SD LATER TODAY WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH AXIS OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...TSTMS MOVING OUT OF NERN WY/SERN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DECREASING STABILITY. DEVELOPING 30-40KT SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOIST INFLOW AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SRN EDGE OF STORM CLUSTERS/MCS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN MT AND ND...ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY AHEAD OF TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. FORCING ALONG TAIL OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY AID IN AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 12:57:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 07:57:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407191257.i6JCvAX18579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191254 SWODY1 SPC AC 191253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MKT 10 NNW AUW 10 SE GRB 25 WSW CGX 40 SE BRL 45 NNW SZL 30 SW FNB 35 W OMA 35 SE MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GCC 30 SSW MLS 10 W GDV 20 SE DIK 45 SE Y22 30 WNW PIR 50 SE RAP 50 SE 81V 25 NNE GCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN ABY 15 ESE AHN 30 SSW JKL 40 SSE MIE 25 NW HUF 55 SSW STL 30 N HRO 20 NE BVO 10 N HSI 50 WNW LBF 25 SE SNY LIC 35 S EHA 40 WSW BWD 60 NE MFE ...CONT... 70 SSE MRF 35 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 30 SE SAD 10 WSW DUG ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 55 ENE PHX 50 NW PRC 15 SW P38 25 SE TPH 15 SW BIH 30 W TVL 25 N MHS 40 NE MFR 15 NW DLS 55 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 40 NW BRD 30 S FAR 45 NE BIS 55 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SENSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...THERE WILL BE FOUR FOCUSED AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE NATION. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED/D WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE IN SRN CANADA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY THE ERN U.P OF MI SWWD TO NEAR MKC BY 20/00Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN ARC BACK NWWD TO A SFC LOW NEAR RAP AND INTO ALBERTA CANADA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN WA/ORE AND AID AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...A SLOWLY EWD MOVING SFC BOUNDARY/LOW CENTER WILL AID IN FOCUSING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SERN VA...ERN NC/SC AND SERN GA. ...UPPER MIDWEST... CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAA REGIME OVER MN/NWRN WI IS ANTICIPATED TO POSE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CINH REMAINS STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL THAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ENSUE WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER FAR SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT FROM WCENTRAL WI SWWD INTO NCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXISTING OVER CENTRAL/NERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER WCENTRAL IA/FAR SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THAT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THIS AREA DESPITE SOME CINH. MLCAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA TO CENTRAL WI THAT IS MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS THROUGH SRN IA/NERN MO AND NRN IL WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY OVER ERN MT SEWD TO NEAR A LOW CENTER NEAR RAP. VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AND A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 MLCAPE BASED ON THE 12Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN MT/FAR NERN WY INTO SWRN ND/WRN SD. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK IS STILL WARRANTED IN THIS AREA. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING CINH AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD. ...ERN ORE/WA AND NRN ID... STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA/ORE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AID IN SOME SEVERE THREAT. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH SCENTRAL WA MAY STABILIZE NERN WA AND FAR NRN ID SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL EXIST BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEGREE OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ...ERN CAROLINAS/FAR SERN VA/GA... SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER NERN NC SWWD INTO ECENTRAL GA AND BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND ANTICIPATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPES...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 DEG C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE/GOSS.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 16:36:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 11:36:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407191636.i6JGaKX23413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191634 SWODY1 SPC AC 191632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MKT 10 NNW AUW 10 SE GRB 25 WSW CGX 40 SE BRL 10 NW P35 50 NNE FNB 60 ESE SUX 35 SE MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GCC 30 SSW MLS 10 W GDV 20 SE DIK 45 SE Y22 30 WNW PIR 30 ESE RAP 50 SE 81V 25 NNE GCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI ...CONT... ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD 25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 35 SSE CNU 30 E OLU 30 S SPW 40 NNW OTG 30 NE MHE 20 NNE CDR 55 WSW CDR 25 NE CYS 45 E LAA 35 ENE LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MID WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HI PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TROUGH IN THE E SLOWLY FILLS AND SHIFTS EWD. WEAK S/WV TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS RIDGE WITH ONE CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS MT WHILE SYSTEM OFFSHORE PAC NW LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN CANADA. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE HAS SAGGED SEWD UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SRN MN WWD ACROSS SRN SD AND THEN NWWD INTO ERN MT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED NE/SW ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NRN IA. NWLY FLOW OF 35-45 KT E OF RIDGE OVER UPPER MID WEST ALONG WITH 10-20KT SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW..RESULTS IN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE ELYS ACROSS WRN SD INTO ERN MT RESULTING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THIS AREA. WITH WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WRN MT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS. CLOUD COVER OVER NERN MT INTO WRN ND SHOULD FOCUS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NERN CORNER WY/SERN MT ACROSS BLACK HILLS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS STORMS EVOLVING INTO A POSSIBLE MCS BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SD. AGAIN EARLY PART OF CONVECTIVE PERIOD COULD SEE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS MAINLY SD THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... STRONGER SWLY FLOW MOVES INLAND AS TROUGH LIFTS INTO B.C WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ERN WA/OR INTO WRN MT TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. HOWEVER SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 8C/KM...A PORTION OF THIS AREA COULD STILL BE UPGRADED IN 20Z OUTLOOK. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 20:06:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 15:06:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407192006.i6JK6GX26328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192002 SWODY1 SPC AC 192000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RST 15 ENE LSE 25 N MSN 20 ESE RFD 10 ENE BMI 20 SSW SPI 30 S UIN 30 ESE P35 25 WSW DSM 25 N FOD 30 WSW RST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S 4BQ 25 N MLS 25 W SDY 40 NNE DIK 40 NE Y22 30 WNW PIR 30 ESE RAP 50 SE 81V 20 S 4BQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 30 N HLN 10 ENE DLN 50 NE SUN 50 SSE BOI 60 WSW BOI 35 SSW BKE 45 ENE BKE 45 SSE S06 45 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD 25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 35 SSE CNU 30 E OLU 30 S SPW 40 NNW OTG 30 NE MHE 20 E VTN 50 SW MHN 45 ESE AKO 40 NE LAA 35 ENE LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...MID MS VALLEY... ELEVATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION APPEAR TO BE ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SERN MN/NERN IA/SWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES SWD ALONG EDGE OF STRONG CAP. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST ERN IA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS FOR AN EVOLVING MCS THAT MAY PROPAGATE INTO NERN PORTIONS OF MO/WCNTRL IL LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO A NW-SE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER EXTREME SERN MT...TURNING MORE ESEWD AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL MT...INTO WRN ND. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DEEPEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...POSSIBLY JUST WEST OF UPPER VORT MAX...THEN SPREAD SEWD TOWARD STRONGER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WA/ORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM ERN ORE INTO WRN MT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IT APPEARS A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 00:45:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 19:45:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407200045.i6K0jBX12410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200042 SWODY1 SPC AC 200041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 4BQ 45 S GDV 45 ESE GDV 10 ENE DIK 40 NE Y22 25 SSW MBG 50 SSE PHP 45 SSW RAP 30 ESE 4BQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 35 S GTF 20 NW WEY 15 SSW MLD 40 SE OWY 90 NNW WMC 40 NNE BNO 20 WNW PDT 45 NNW ALW 35 N 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BRD 20 SE DLH 15 SSE IWD 50 SSW ESC 30 WNW MKG 25 NNE CGX 25 S RFD 30 SE DBQ 30 SE RST 10 W MSP 30 ESE BRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD 25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 50 ENE CNU 10 NW OMA 25 WNW OLU 15 NNW EAR 10 S LBF 50 N IML 45 SE SNY 45 ESE AKO 40 NE LAA 35 ENE LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN ROCKIES... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN NV INTO ID. SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ID IN ADDITION TO CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER MUCH OF ID INTO SWRN MT ARE INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HERE...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO MLCIN. MOREOVER...45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ID INTO WRN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 1738. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN AND W-CNTRL SD ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH IN NRN/NWRN QUADRANT OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING EWD INTO WRN SD. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN SD SEWD INTO NWRN IA/ ALONG AXIS OF DEVELOPING 25-35KT SLY LLJ. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... BAND OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS FROM THE UP OF MI WWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO NERN MN ALONG AND S OF NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THAT SAME GENERAL AREA. WEAK IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING SWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IS ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL WI ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION. 00Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL REMAIN OVER NRN INTO CNTRL WI WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT CAP IS WEAKER. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 05:18:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 00:18:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407200518.i6K5IoX19495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200516 SWODY1 SPC AC 200514 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 50 SSE DLH MSN 40 NW CGX 30 NE BMI 35 E UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NNW OMA 30 NW YKN 50 NNW ABR 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE FHU 45 WNW SAD 15 WSW FLG 30 W P38 65 N BIH 35 SSE NFL 20 SE WMC 85 WNW OWY 55 W BKE 25 ESE GEG 50 NE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW CTY 40 SSW AGS 30 NNW SOP 20 WNW ROA 30 SE JKL 45 NNW CSV 10 NE HOP 20 N ARG 25 NNW HRO 40 SSW OJC 20 NNE EMP 25 WNW HUT 40 W P28 50 E LBB P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL FLATTEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN SD WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO MN LATER TODAY WITH STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE WRN SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SWD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER SERN SD/NERN NEB AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STALLED ACROSS NERN NEB INTO NRN IA WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE W. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF EWD-MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PERSISTENT CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS IA WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F WILL OCCUR WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF SLY/SWLY LLJ. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL MIXING...MAINTAINING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT AIRMASS S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-3500 J/KG. INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON OVER ERN SD INTO WRN MN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS /GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST INVOF RETREATING BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WHICH IS FORECAST ACROSS IA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO W-CNTRL INTO NWRN MN. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED TERRAIN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. THOUGH VEERED LOW-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 40-50KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 13:00:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 08:00:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407201300.i6KD0uX06862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201258 SWODY1 SPC AC 201256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 50 SSE DLH 10 NW MSN 35 WNW CGX 30 ENE BMI 35 E UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NNW OMA 40 WNW YKN 50 E MBG 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CTY 55 S AGS 30 NNW SOP 20 WNW ROA 30 SE JKL 45 NNW CSV 35 WSW HOP 35 N TXK 15 SE MLC 40 SSW OJC 20 NNE EMP 25 WNW HUT 40 W P28 50 E LBB P07 ...CONT... 15 SE FHU 45 WNW SAD 15 WSW FLG 30 W P38 65 N BIH 35 SSE NFL 20 SE WMC 85 WNW OWY 55 W BKE 25 ESE GEG 50 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS WRN U.S. TROUGH WEAKENS AND ERN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. MEANWHILE...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WWD INTO CA AND EWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS TO THE N OF WEAK / DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WRN GULF. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE / INCREASINGLY ZONAL WLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW IS INDICATED ACROSS S CENTRAL SD ATTM...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXTENDS NWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO A SECOND / SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH TIME...THIS COMPLEX TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA / THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT TO EVOLVE / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAIN AREA OF SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED LOWS / FRONTS. ...N CENTRAL CONUS... AS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KS / SRN NEB RETREATS NWD AND DUAL-CENTERED LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA / THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RED RIVER / MID MO / UPPER MS VALLEYS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WEAK STORMS NOW ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP / INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / NEB EWD INTO MN / IA. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FEATURES MAKE A PRECISE FORECAST OF LOCATIONS OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT ATTM...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATEST THREAT SHOULD EXIST GENERALLY ALONG NRN / ERN FRINGES OF WEAK LOW FORECAST BY THE ETA ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB / SD DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH 25 TO 30 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY NEAR WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEB / SD LOW. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AND MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING WHERE MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND RETREATING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE ANY STRONGER STORM...THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...NRN ROCKIES... MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS ID / NV -- AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL...POCKETS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN ID ENEWD ACROSS NWRN WY / SRN MT. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE INTENSE / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 16:33:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 11:33:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407201633.i6KGXCX10379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201630 SWODY1 SPC AC 201628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 50 SSE DLH 25 ESE OSH 30 WNW BEH 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 25 NW IRK 30 S OMA GRI 40 ENE ANW 20 NNW HON 35 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 15 SSW AYS 40 W SAV 45 W AGS 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 NNW GSO 20 NNE PSK 35 NE 5I3 15 NNE LEX 25 S CKV 30 SE PGO 15 ESE MLC 40 SSW OJC 20 NNE EMP 25 SW MHK 40 W END 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN GBN 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 40 SW U31 10 NNE BAM 95 NNW WMC 30 ENE BNO 20 WNW BKE 35 SE ALW 20 E LWS 25 WSW S06 50 NW 3TH 35 S 4OM 70 WNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKS ACROSS THE CORN BELT/MN INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...ERN DAKS/MID-MO VLY EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... MESOSCALE FEATURES REMAIN RATHER WEAK LATE THIS MORNING. DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONTS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL IA NWWD ALONG THE MO RVR VLY AND ALSO FROM CNTRL WI NWWD INTO SERN MANITOBA. KEY FOCUS IS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN-MOST BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MID-MO RVR VLY. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DUAL VORT MAXIMA MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKS. NRN IMPULSE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY INTO NRN/CNTRL MN DURING PEAK HEATING. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE...THOUGH PATCHES OF MID-LAYER CLOUD MAY INHIBIT STRONG DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MN THROUGH EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL. HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY VALUES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT. HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. STRONGEST HEATING/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN NERN NEB...NWRN IA...ERN SD AND SWRN MN. NEAR 70 DEGREES F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. AS TAIL END OF THE SRN-MOST VORT MAX MOVES INTO THE REGION...CAP SHOULD ERODE AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF AN ISOLD TORNADO...PARTICULARLY VCNTY SURFACE LOW/ WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. HOWEVER...LCLS WILL BE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 6000 FEET AGL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IA OR SRN MN AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES. THIS MAY CARRY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREATS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY VERY LATE TONIGHT. LASTLY...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH THIS FAR EAST...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DESPITE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...INCREASINGLY DRY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CBS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENTRAIN THE DRIER AIR. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TODAY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 19:38:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 14:38:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407201938.i6KJcKX20244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201934 SWODY1 SPC AC 201932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 10 E CGX 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 20 NNW BBW 25 NNE VTN 40 NE PIR 25 ENE BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 15 W AND 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 10 ENE CKV 35 ENE JBR 25 SW UNO 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 15 E BNO 35 SE ALW 45 NNE S80 30 E 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...GREAT LAKES... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1739. COMBINATION OF LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WI INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE NUMEROUS AS LAKE BREEZES REMAIN ACTIVE...HOWEVER PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REMAIN NEAR FRONT PRONOUNCED IN CU FIELD FROM NEAR MSP INTO SRN U.P. OF MI. HERE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION. COMBINED EFFECTS OF FURTHER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW RAPID THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FROM S-CENTRAL SD/N-CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN MN BETWEEN 21-00Z. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1740/. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE EXPECT A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THROUGH THE MID EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD UPWARDS INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED AND SWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES. ...ERN TX PANHANDLE... RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED /PER OBSERVED 18Z AMA AND RUC-FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK. THUS...STRONGER CELLS AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED/PULSE IN NATURE. ..EVANS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 21:23:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 16:23:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407202123.i6KLNnX08161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202103 SWODY1 SPC AC 202101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 202100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 10 E CGX 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 20 NNW BBW 25 NNE VTN 45 N RAP 55 NNW REJ 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 15 W AND 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 10 ENE CKV 35 ENE JBR 25 SW UNO 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 15 E BNO 35 SE ALW 45 NNE S80 30 E 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... AMENDED TO EXTEND SLGT RISK ACROSS WRN ND .....AMENDED AREA... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1741. DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING INCREASING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO WRN ND ATTM. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ND THIS EVENING... STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. .....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..... ...GREAT LAKES... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1739. COMBINATION OF LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WI INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE NUMEROUS AS LAKE BREEZES REMAIN ACTIVE...HOWEVER PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REMAIN NEAR FRONT PRONOUNCED IN CU FIELD FROM NEAR MSP INTO SRN U.P. OF MI. HERE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION. COMBINED EFFECTS OF FURTHER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW RAPID THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FROM S-CENTRAL SD/N-CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN MN BETWEEN 21-00Z. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1740/. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE EXPECT A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THROUGH THE MID EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD UPWARDS INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED AND SWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES. ...ERN TX PANHANDLE... RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED /PER OBSERVED 18Z AMA AND RUC-FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK. THUS...STRONGER CELLS AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED/PULSE IN NATURE. ..EVANS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 00:35:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 19:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407210036.i6L0aTX14756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210032 SWODY1 SPC AC 210030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 35 SE CGX 20 W DNV 20 WNW DEC 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 10 W BUB 25 NNE VTN 30 ENE PHP 65 N PHP 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 45 W BOI 20 SE 27U 15 SSW MSO 20 ESE 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 30 NNW AGS 10 S SPA CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 40 NE OWB 40 SE MVN 35 SSW BLV 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATED N-S ORIENTED PRESSURE TROUGH /DELIMITING HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS/ FROM CNTRL ND SWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND THEN INTO WRN KS. STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY ATTM WAS CO-LOCATED INVOF SURFACE LOWS OVER CNTRL ND AND SERN SD/NERN NEB WITHIN REGIONS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. COPIOUS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE MO VALLEY NWD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4500 J/KG /PER 00Z OMA SOUNDING/. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. REGION IS BETWEEN STRONGER FLOW CHANNELS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN IA/WI AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL IA SHOULD MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA OVERNIGHT. FOR SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ON ERN ND PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK...PLEASE REFER TO MCD 1745. FARTHER W...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE NEB PNHDL WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. LOCAL AIRMASS IS COMPARATIVELY DRIER...BUT HOTTER THAN ENVIRONMENT TO THE E...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES ARE MORE WEAKLY DEFINED THAN PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS WI AND ERN IA. COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER 00Z DVN AND GRB SOUNDINGS/ AND THE PRESENCE OF 30-35KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING INVOF OF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG /REF 00Z LBF AND DDC SOUNDINGS/. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WILL EXIST OWING SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MERGING COLD POOLS. ISOLATED...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 05:36:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 00:36:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407210536.i6L5a3X15268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210534 SWODY1 SPC AC 210532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SSE PIT 30 SSE LUK 20 NW UIN 50 WNW CNK 25 NNW EAR 30 WSW MSP 40 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA BIH SAC 10 S RBL 10 SE LMT 55 ESE BNO 45 NW SUN 15 NE MQM BIL 10 NE RAP 15 NNE BKX 40 NNE FAR 30 WSW P24 55 SE HVR 50 NW FCA ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 50 ENE COT 40 E AUS 30 NNW POE 20 W BTR 30 N BVE ...CONT... 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN CHA 15 N ARG 60 N JLN 35 NNW END 30 ENE LBB 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 30 E AUG 35 NW GFL 35 SSW IPT 35 WSW MRB 20 NW LYH 45 N RWI 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH A BELT MODERATELY STRONG WINDS SPREADING EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ANALYZED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE /NOW OVER SRN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA/ BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...NRN EXTENSION OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT /INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/ WILL PUSH EWD TODAY AND WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO ERN CO BY EARLY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND SHORT-TERM NWP DATA SUGGEST A COMPLEX SCENARIO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MCS /THE EARLY STAGE OF WHICH MAY BE EVOLVING OVER SRN MN/ AS IT MOVES EWD TODAY...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC FRONT ITSELF. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN STORM CLUSTERS/FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS EWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI TODAY. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...CONTINUOUS FEED OF MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ALONG WSWLY 20-30KT LLJ SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY WELL BE FOCUSED ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT /OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/ AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ANTICIPATED MCS /OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES OR NWRN OH VALLEY/. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...IA/NEB SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG IA/NEB PORTION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORM CLUSTERS MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONG /I.E. 20-30KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM/...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. MOST INTENSE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A FEW HIGH-BASED....STRONG STORMS INVOF THESE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 13:00:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 08:00:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407211300.i6LD0PX19754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211258 SWODY1 SPC AC 211256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 20 NW UIN 60 WNW CNK 25 WNW EAR 25 E YKN 30 NNE MKT 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 15 SSE LMT 45 W BOI 55 WSW MQM 20 E BIL RAP 35 W PIR 25 SSW ATY 30 ENE ATY 40 NNE FAR 55 N BIS 75 WSW GGW 30 S HVR 50 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 35 E VLD 45 NW SAV 40 WNW FLO 15 WNW RWI 20 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 ESE AUG 30 NW GFL 40 NW CXY 20 S PSK 50 SSW TYS 30 ENE MKL 30 WNW SGF 35 NNW END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER / WEAKLY CYCLONIC WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS / ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS STRONGER BELT OF FLOW...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST TO MOVE FROM IA / MN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO / WRN MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM WI / IA SWWD INTO KS / SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / LOWER LAKES... CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS SERN MN / NERN IA INTO SWRN WI / NWRN IL ATTM...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...WITH WLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUPPLYING HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THIS REGION. MODERATELY-STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WI / IL INTO LOWER MI / IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AHEAD OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT...LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS WRN PA / WRN NY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING AIRMASS CAN RECOVER. SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS AS AIRMASS RECOVERY / DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. GREATEST INSTABILITY -- AS WELL AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- IS FORECAST FROM SRN MN / IA SWWD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN MN / IA...WHERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST. FURTHER SWWD ACROSS KS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS -- AS FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONGER / MULTICELL STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHER-BASED. ..GOSS.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 16:16:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 11:16:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407211615.i6LGFtX10725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211613 SWODY1 SPC AC 211611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLI 30 WSW RFD 30 SSW MKE 40 SW MKG GRR 20 NNE LAN 25 SE FNT 25 SE DTW 10 W FDY 30 NE MIE 10 WNW LAF 25 N CMI 15 ENE PIA 35 SE MLI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 20 NW UIN 50 W CNK 15 SSE EAR 25 SSE SUX 30 WNW RST 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 15 SSE LMT 45 W BOI 55 WSW MQM 45 NW LND 55 N DGW 45 NNE RAP 25 SSE Y22 40 ENE Y22 40 E DIK 30 NW GDV 50 ENE LWT 50 NE MSO 45 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SYR 15 WSW ELM 10 ENE PSB 10 S MGW 15 WSW CRW 20 NNE LOZ 30 ESE BWG 30 ENE MKL 45 WSW MEM 10 S LIT 35 ESE FSM 15 SE FYV 25 SSW UMN 20 ESE JLN 35 NNW JLN 15 SSE CNU 40 NNW BVO 30 NW PNC 45 W END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES EXCLUDING THE MDT RISK AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPING CENTRAL CANADA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY TODAY. RESULT IN CONUS WILL BE A BAND OF STRONG WLYS...60KT AT 500MB/80-90 KT AT 300MB SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN MS VALLEY INTO UPR GREAT LAKES. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NWRN KS. ADDITIONALLY MCV THAT ORIGINATED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN IA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEPARATE MID LEVEL WIND MAX. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL BY 12Z ETA AND TRACKS EWD TO ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... VERY MOIST/PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES/ AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS/MLCAPES BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 2500-3500 J/KG...WILL FUEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MCV. THIS ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WINDS. CAP AT 16Z ABOUT GONE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN PORTION OF MDT RISK AREA...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WI SWWD TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT VS THE MDT RISK AREA. REF MCD 1750 ..HALES.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 19:43:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 14:43:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407211942.i6LJgsX11772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211940 SWODY1 SPC AC 211939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLI 30 WSW RFD 30 SSW MKE 40 SW MKG GRR 20 NNE LAN 25 SE FNT 25 SE DTW 10 W FDY 30 NE MIE 10 WNW LAF 25 N CMI 15 ENE PIA 35 SE MLI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 15 NNE COU 20 WSW SLN 25 SSW HSI 35 N FNB 25 NE OTM 25 NNW DBQ GRB 40 NNW PLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW INL 50 SW DLH 25 ENE MKT 15 SSW OTG 25 ESE 9V9 40 NE PIR 50 WNW ABR 15 SSW FAR 35 SE GFK 35 NW GFK 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 10 E MFR 55 S RDM 55 WSW MQM 45 NW LND 55 N DGW 45 NNE RAP 25 SSE Y22 40 ENE Y22 40 E DIK 20 NNW GDV 55 E LWT 50 N 3DU 45 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SYR 15 WSW ELM 10 ENE PSB 10 S MGW 15 WSW CRW 20 NNE LOZ 30 ESE BWG 30 ENE MKL 45 WSW MEM 10 S LIT 35 ESE FSM 15 SE FYV 25 SSW UMN 20 ESE JLN 35 NNW JLN 15 SSE CNU 40 NNW BVO 30 NW PNC 45 W END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM NERN KS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...EWD INTO WRN PA/NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN... ...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE DRIFTED INTO ERN IA WHERE A DECAYING MVC HAS ALL BUT LOST ITS IDENTITY. LEADING EDGE OF DEBRIS FIELD SHOULD WITH TIME BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOSTLY UNCAPPED WITH STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT...PER 18Z SOUNDINGS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO IT APPEARS AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE TREND IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN WI INTO SRN LOWER LAKE MI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD INTO IL THEN SURGE EWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000J/KG FROM SRN IL INTO NWRN IND. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EVOLVING MCS SHOULD EMERGE BY EARLY EVENING AS COMPLEX SPREADS EWD AFTER DARK. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED A MORE SLY COMPONENT...ALBEIT WEAK...TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN SD INTO MN. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT SPREAD FROM SD INTO MN THIS EVENING. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS NERN ND INTO NWRN MN. LOCAL HAIL ALGORITHMS ON 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM SRN MANITOBA SUGGEST HAIL MAY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 13:07:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 08:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407221307.i6MD7bX12495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221305 SWODY1 SPC AC 221303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ILM 20 SSE FAY 20 WSW RWI 50 NE RWI DCA 10 NW PHL 10 SSE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SNY 10 SE OLU 15 NNW MLI 30 NNE MMO 35 N DNV 10 S MTO ALN EMP HUT GCK 20 WSW LAA PUB 25 N DEN 35 SW SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 25 ENE IGM 25 WNW SGU 65 NW P38 20 SSE TPH 40 NNE NID 60 ESE FAT 10 NNW SAC 55 NW RBL 45 NNW MFR 25 SW RDM 55 S BKE 15 WNW S80 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 SE GTF 40 ENE 4BQ 45 NNW PHP 35 N OTG 30 ENE RST 25 NNE MTW 10 S PLN 75 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE HUL 20 ESE 3B1 15 E MWN BAF 25 ENE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MEM 40 NW LIT 35 ENE FSM 50 NW FYV 30 E BVO 25 W BVO 30 N OKC 25 NE LTS 25 SSW CDS 50 SSE LBB 25 SW BGS 55 SW SJT 20 NW JCT 55 W TPL 60 SW TYR 30 ENE SHV 35 ENE MLU JAN 15 NNE MEI 15 SSW TCL 35 WNW BHM 20 ENE MSL 35 N MSL 15 SW MKL 40 W MEM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN IA / NRN MO / IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO OCCUR AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES / NRN PLAINS...ON THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN LK MI SWWD ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN NEB / NRN KS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD INTO SRN IA / NRN MO / CENTRAL IL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INVOF WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INVOF BOUNDARY -- WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMA E OF ONGOING MID MO VALLEY STORMS AND ACROSS ERN CO / WRN KS / SRN MO IN ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF BOUNDARY. DESPITE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS KS / CO AND PERHAPS INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLES...AS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING -- WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING N AND E OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ...COASTAL VA / NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH IN MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW...VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...KY / MID OH VALLEY REGION... STORMS AHEAD OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ERN KY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS S AND E OF THIS CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THIS CLUSTER ACROSS THE LOWER / MID OH VALLEY REGION...FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ...SWRN NM / SERN AZ... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN AZ / SWRN NM COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NELY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SPREADING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO SERN AZ WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS.. 07/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 16:35:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 11:35:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407221635.i6MGZbX14463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221633 SWODY1 SPC AC 221631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SNY 20 WSW LNK 25 WSW MLI 45 W FWA 30 WSW LUK 10 WNW SDF ALN EMP HUT GCK 20 WSW LAA PUB 25 N DEN 35 SW SNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ILM 30 W OAJ RWI 50 NE RWI 10 E DCA 10 NW PHL 20 S NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 25 N MLB ...CONT... 15 NNE JAX 35 NE MGR 10 WSW MCN 10 NNW AHN 45 WSW CHA 25 NW DYR 60 ESE HRO 45 WSW JLN 30 WNW BVO 30 NW CSM 40 S CVS 15 SE HOB 20 SSE MAF 15 N BWD 35 WNW TXK 50 NNE MLU 40 WSW CBM 20 SW TCL 30 S MOB ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 S ALB 15 SW POU 15 SW JFK ...CONT... 50 ENE HVR BIL 15 S SHR 45 NW CDR 15 NNE VTN 30 E MCW 35 NW MKG 35 NNE HTL 45 NNE APN ...CONT... 75 SE YUM 15 SW GBN 60 NNW GBN 10 SSW IGM 50 NNW DRA 30 ENE BIH 25 SW BIH 40 NNE FAT 55 SSW SVE 15 NE MHS 45 NNE LMT 60 NNE 4LW 40 SW BOI 45 WNW TWF 25 NW TWF 35 W SUN 55 NNW BOI 40 SSW S80 25 SSW S06 70 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID SUMMER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS DELIVERING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NRN CONUS E OF ROCKIES. COLD FRONT MOVING SWD CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN LWR MI WSWWD ACROSS WI INTO CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CENTRAL U.S. HAS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL S OF FRONTAL LOCATION FROM IA/MO BORDER WSWWD ACROSS NRN KS INTO ERN CO. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO S OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND FRONT MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO OH VALLEY... THE POOL OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS CENTERED TODAY FROM MID MS VALLEY TO S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS IL AND IN. SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS WARM SECTOR ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MID LEVEL FLOW MOST AREAS 20-30 KT. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE STORM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM AND WARM MID LEVELS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SEWD INTO SRN LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THERE IS SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL WEAKEN STORMS. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO N OF COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM...FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 10-20 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORMS WITH ENOUGH VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PULSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH SMALL CHANCE OF BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD BE THE LIMIT OF THE THREAT TODAY. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF OFF SHORE UPPER LOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER S/SWLY FLOW...RESULTS IN 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS. CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DISSIPATING CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INLAND. ...SERN AZ... WHILE A GULF SURGE WILL BE ENTERING SRN AZ TODAY...EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL NELY STEERING FLOW AND MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH AROUND 8C/KM LAPSE RATES FAVOR A FEW STORMS PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE HIGH LCL LEVEL AROUND 10K FEET. ...S TX... WEAK UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS S TX...PUTTING MUCH OF THIS AREA UNDER 20-25 KT SLY FLOW OF A MOIST...VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND. ..HALES/LEVIT.. 07/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 01:06:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 20:06:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407230106.i6N16QX26414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230103 SWODY1 SPC AC 230102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CLE CAK ZZV UNI JKL 35 N TYS CSV BNA 35 WSW HOP 25 ENE PAH 35 SW OWB 15 NNE BWG 40 SSE SDF 50 ESE IND 15 NNE TOL 45 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 65 NW GBN IGM LAS DRA 50 NW NID FAT TVL 75 ESE 4LW BOI S80 S06 3TH 40 SSW FCA HLN BIL SHR 40 ENE 81V RAP 30 NE AIA SNY 50 NW GLD 40 SW EAR OLU FRM EAU VOK JVL FWA 60 NNE MTC ...CONT... SSI AGS ATL HSV MKL UMN BVO CSM ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EFK POU JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 55 W MIA 50 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF FST 50 E BGS ABI PBF CBM 20 S PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN TN TO NRN OH... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS -- FROM NRN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND -- ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY AREA VORTEX. WEAK UPPER LOW PERSISTS OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ERN QUE SWWD ACROSS ERN ONT...INDIANA...CENTRAL MO...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND DIFFUSE AMIDST CONVECTIVE PROCESSES OVER ERN CO. ...OH VALLEY REGION... REF REMAINING PORTIONS SPC WW 668 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST GUIDANCE REGARDING BROKEN COMPLEX OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- FROM SERN LOWER MI TO CENTRAL/WRN KY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL/ERN KY AND PERHAPS NRN TN BEFORE WEAKENING. OH CONVECTION HAS GREATEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. OBSERVED MLCAPES IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE -- AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND BETWEEN ILN-BNA -- SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING WITH SFC DIABATIC COOLING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... LOSS OF INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF BOTH DIABATIC COOLING AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW POOLS...COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW AND SHEAR IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...INDICATES ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION BELOW THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MULTICELLS WILL MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND CENTRAL KS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY NON-SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD FROM ERN CO ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. ..DEEP S TX... UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN PREVAILING ELYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WWD OVER NERN MEX...CONTRIBUTING TO GEN TSTM POTENTIAL PORTIONS S TX AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITHIN THAT REGION...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AMIDST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND WEAK STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR CATEGORICAL RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 06:05:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 01:05:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407230605.i6N65OX15449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230602 SWODY1 SPC AC 230600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 45 SSE SGU SGU P38 55 WNW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT SAC 35 SW LMT 55 WSW BNO 35 NW BKE LWS 3TH GTF MLS 35 N REJ 30 WNW PHP 30 NE MHN OFK 45 WNW DSM UIN HUF DAY CAK BFD 15 NE ROC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ONE MORE DAY OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST FROM NRN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND -- ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY AREA CYCLONE -- BEFORE NRN STREAM DEAMPLIFICATION ENSUES. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER GREAT LAKES DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS CANADIAN VORTEX FILLS AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES ONT THEN EJECTS AWAY FROM LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SERN ONT SWWD ACROSS SRN IL TO WRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED AND MOVE EWD TOWARD COASTAL NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC BY 24/12Z. FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...AND DRIFT SWD OVER OZARKS AND S-CENTRAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY FORM OVER WRN OK OR ERN TX PANHANDLE...HOWEVER...MORE SPECIFIC CHARACTER OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION/INFLUENCES OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NOW OVER WRN KS/SERN CO/NERN NM AND OK PANHANDLE. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM OZARKS ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION TO NERN NM...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING ON W END OF AREA. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES SHOULD RISE TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE ROUGHLY E OF I-35...AIDED BY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG INSOLATION. MLCAPE WILL LESSEN WWD TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AGAINST NRN NM MOUNTAINS...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS IN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. EARLY/DISCRETE CELLS WILL EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WEAKNESS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE RISK OF SEVERE IS NOT INTENSE OR CONCENTRATED ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WITH BRIEF/MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE FROM CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BEING MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT IS OVER PORTIONS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND...ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN VORTEX ALOFT. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THIS REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIMITING CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH CAPPING ALSO EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...TSTMS SHOULD FROM INVOF SFC FRONT BY AFTERNOON -- PERHAPS FORMING A BROKEN BAND WITH STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GUSTS. DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...INSOLATION IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE POCKETS MAY RAISE CAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG LOCALLY...BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 12:59:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 07:59:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407231259.i6NCxBX10438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231257 SWODY1 SPC AC 231255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU 30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 15 N SAC 35 WSW LMT 25 W BNO 40 SE ALW 10 NE 3TH 40 WNW GTF 30 NNW MLS 50 SW DIK 30 ENE MHN 40 W OFK 35 NNW OMA 50 WNW DSM 20 W UIN 20 ESE MTO 20 SE DAY 20 NE CMH 10 ESE YNG 20 NE ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS... THIS MORNING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NM NEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...NRN OK...SRN MO AND BEYOND. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT IS CENTERED OVER SWRN KS AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NRN OK INTO SRN KS WHERE DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE MCV NOW OVER SWRN KS. WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING WILL PERSIST ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NERN U.S.... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A STRONGER FLOW REGIME IN PART OF THIS AREA THAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NATION WITH 25-35 KT BETWEEN 2 AND 5 KM OVER NRN ME. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW. COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY E TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER ME WHERE ONLY LOW CLOUDS EXIST. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION AND MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA APPEARS LIMITED. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 16:13:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 11:13:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407231612.i6NGCrX11704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231610 SWODY1 SPC AC 231608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU 30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 ENE MHS 65 SE BNO 45 S S80 40 ESE 3TH 65 NNW REJ 25 N RAP 10 S AIA 40 ESE AKO 50 E LAA 20 ENE GCK RSL 30 W BIE 35 SE OMA 25 SSE DSM 15 SSW UIN 30 SW HUF 25 NNW LUK 25 WNW ZZV 25 SW FKL 35 NNE BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MO AND INTO NWRN OK WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH HAS SHIFTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WELL SWD INTO WEAK WLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SHEAR DUE TO WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY. MUCH OF THE MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...AREA FROM WRN INTO NRN OK AND SRN KS/SRN MO APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR NEARER SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES...AS BREAKS CONTINUE/EXPAND IN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES AND FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS ARE WEAK THIS MORNING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF-LIVED WIND DAMAGE. ...AZ... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATE RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS AZ. THOUGH AREA REMAINS UNDER EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH ATTENDANT WEAK FLOW...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TODAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENT NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 20:01:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 15:01:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407232001.i6NK15X10000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231959 SWODY1 SPC AC 231957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU 30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 15 SSE RBL MFR 55 SE EUG 40 ESE RDM 60 WSW BOI 30 ENE BOI 40 NE S80 30 N MSO 15 NE HLN 50 SSE BIL 20 NW CPR 50 NNW BFF 30 NNE SNY 15 N LAA 15 WSW EHA 20 SE LBL 25 E DDC 30 WSW MHK 10 WSW STJ 35 S IRK 15 W BLV 20 NE EVV 40 SSE LUK 25 E PKB 30 NNE PSB 30 NNW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN VA TO WRN ME... NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM NRN VA INTO NRN VT. THIS ZONE SHOULD CONVECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. A NEGATIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE APPARENT WEAKNESS IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THROUGH PEAK HEATING A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. ...SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY... WEAK MVC IS SHEARING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL KS WITH A SLOWLY DECREASING SHIELD OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF KS. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...SFC FRONT HAS BEEN FORCED INTO WRN-NRN PORTIONS OF OK WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE UNSTABLE...SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION TO GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MUCH OF OK...AR...AND NWRN TX SHOULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. ...AZ... CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE EVOLVED OVER SERN AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS FAVOR SLOW PROPAGATION OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS LOWER DESERTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DOWNBURSTS APPEARS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF STATE IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 00:41:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 19:41:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407240040.i6O0ehX04099@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240038 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE IPL EED CDC 35 NNE P38 50 W P38 TPH 30 WNW BIH 40 ENE SCK SVE WMC BOI S80 S06 45 NE MSO LWT MLS REJ SHR DGW SNY LAA EHA LBL DDC SLN MKC VIH OWB LEX HTS CRW SSU ROA SHD MRB HGR 40 NW RUT 3B1 35 NE CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...NRN STREAM PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX...AND EXTENDING FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FIELD. ANOTHER PERTURBATION NOW APPARENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN WY SHOULD DRIFT EWD INTO NRN STREAM TONIGHT. SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM ERN NY SWWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND OZARKS REGIONS INTO ERN NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE TO COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z...AND TO DRIFT GENERALLY SWD ELSEWHERE. ...PIEDMONT/TIDEWATER FROM MD-NC... FRONTAL LINE OF PRIMARILY NONSEVERE TSTMS -- LOCATED AT 00Z FROM NRN MD SWWD ACROSS VA PIEDMONT -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SEWD TOWARD TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 4Z...PARTICULARLY SRN PORTION...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL SCALE LIFT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ONLY AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM...UNSUITABLE FOR DAMAGING HAIL GENERATION IN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MD 70S ANALYZED ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN NC CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN SHORT TERM FCST SOUNDINGS. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE ANY SEVERE GUST THREAT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF/ISOLATED GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BECAUSE OF WEAKENED BUOYANCY RELATED TO BOTH SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS AND DIABATIC/RADIATIONAL COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. AS IN ERN CONUS DISCUSSION AREA...WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR FIELDS PRECLUDE THREAT OF MORE THAN BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS DURING REMAINDER EVENING. ...AZ... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WELL-ORGANIZED OR VERY CONCENTRATED SO MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MAINTAINED. MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SURGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE OVER LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...AND 100-400 J/KG N OF MOGOLLON RIM...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREAS OF CENTRAL/SERN AZ ALREADY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW POOLS...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME QUITE FRAGMENTED ON MESOBETA AND SMALLER SCALES WITHIN REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 05:37:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 00:37:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407240537.i6O5bAX19064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240534 SWODY1 SPC AC 240532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DLH BRD FAR 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 50 SW GCN 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 35 SW TVL MHS 35 NE MFR 45 NNW EAT 30 NNW GEG 40 NNW BOI 60 SSE BOI 25 SSW TWF 30 W MLD 40 E PIH 35 SW 27U 50 NNW 27U BZN RAP BFF AKO 35 NE DHT 40 WNW GAG MHK 40 NE SZL CKV TRI 35 S MRB 10 SSW PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT RISES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF GREAT LAKES REGION...AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX FILLS AND EJECTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN QUE AND LABRADOR STRAIT. BROAD/DIFFUSE AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE LEFT BEHIND -- FROM LS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THAT FLOW...MOST NOTABLY TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MT. THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WY AND WRN NEB THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...RED RIVER/ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND MULTICELLULAR IN MODE...STRONGEST TSTMS BEING INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE INVOF WRN PORTION OF PLUME OF GREATEST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS -- OVER NRN LA/SRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX AREA. FARTHER W WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED...COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED...BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS OVER ROUGHLY INVERTED-V SHAPED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG WHERE 70S F DEW POINTS ARE COMMON IN ARKLATEX AND MS RIVER REGION...TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NW TX. LOW-MIDLEVEL ABSOLUTE FLOWS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WEAK...LIMITING ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION ON LOCAL SCALES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THAT THE SMALL PERCENTAGE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS STILL SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH EVENTS TO WARRANT SUBCATEGORICAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION INVOF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LATER FLOW FROM SEASONALLY COOL/POST-FRONTAL/CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN ERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE BY ABOUT 24/22Z. MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NRN/CENTRAL CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WITH OVER 180 DEG OF LOW LEVEL VEERING ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS DESPITE WEAKNESSES IN SPEEDS BETWEEN SFC-700 MB. THIS YIELDS 100-200 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG FRONT RANGE AND MAY SUPPORT BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM ROTATION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO INSOLATION AND WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 25/01Z. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 13:00:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 08:00:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407241300.i6OD05X08998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241257 SWODY1 SPC AC 241256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DLH BRD FAR 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 35 SW TVL MHS 35 NE MFR 45 NNW EAT 30 NNW GEG 40 NNW BOI 60 SSE BOI 25 SSW TWF 30 W MLD 40 E PIH 35 SW 27U 50 NNW 27U BZN RAP BFF AKO 35 NE DHT 40 WNW GAG 25 NNE GAG 15 ESE HUT 25 SSW MHK 45 NE MHK 35 SW UIN CKV TRI 35 S MRB 10 SSW PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... A SURFACE FRONT...PARTS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM W TX NEWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SRN OK THEN EWD ACROSS NRN AR AND INTO SRN TN. AN AREA OF ONGOING STORMS PERSISTS FROM ERN OK AND KS INTO MO AND NW AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV OVER ERN KS. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR FROM NE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF CLOUDS. GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SERN STATES. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE THIS AIR IS ORIGINATING FROM A RELATIVELY COOL...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THEREFORE THE BEST AREA FOR POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WHERE MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 600 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD THROUGH WY AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 16:36:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 11:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407241635.i6OGZqX05993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241632 SWODY1 SPC AC 241630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 55 WNW GBN 50 SSW PRC 55 SSE FLG 35 SSE SOW 40 SSE SAD 10 SW DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV 45 NW TYR 25 WSW DUA 45 N ADM 35 ENE MKO 55 WSW ARG 55 WSW MEM 10 WNW GLH 30 N SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 20 ENE RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 40 N 27U 30 N GCC 25 NW AKO 15 SSE DHT 65 SW GAG 15 NW ICT 30 S FNB 35 SW UIN 25 NE HOP TRI 35 NNE CHO 15 N BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX/ERN OK/AR... ...CENTRAL/SRN AZ... 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER AZ WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DESPITE STRONG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NELY MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MODEST /AROUND 20 KT/ ALONG SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SHIFT SWWD OUT OF SRN NM AND ACROSS SERN AZ THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS CURRENTLY EAST OF TUS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INHIBIT HEATING FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER SERN AZ. HOWEVER...NORTH OF THIS AREA SKIES REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE...WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TUS INTO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHX TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF STEERING FLOW/SHEAR ...CONCERNED THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WHICH MAY ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS WSWWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE DESERTS/FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...AR/ERN OK/NERN TX... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED OR SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY SSEWD INTO SERN OK/NRN TX/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN WARM SECTOR...SOUNDINGS AT LZK AND SHV INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S/. THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AT SHV THIS MORNING...FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER /H5 WINDS NEAR 20 KT/ AT LZK AND FROM DQU/HKL PROFILERS. THUS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS /REGION IS ALREADY NEARING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z/. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...SHV/S MORNING SOUNDING YIELDED VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF 33C WHICH IS MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... APPEARS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AROUND SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE DYING. ...NRN CA INTO SRN ORE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX LIFTING NWD INTO NERN CA/NWRN NV THIS MORNING. THIS MAY FOCUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT INTO NRN CA/SRN ORE FOR AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 19:57:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 14:57:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407241956.i6OJuvX30321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241954 SWODY1 SPC AC 241952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 55 WNW GBN 40 W PRC 10 NW FLG 25 SSE SOW 40 SSW SAD 20 SE FHU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ABI 25 ESE SPS 25 NNW ADM 20 SW MKO 20 NE FYV 30 SSW UNO 10 NW ARG 15 S JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 WNW ELD 20 NW GGG 30 NE ACT 40 S SEP 60 NNE ABI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 30 SW RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 40 N 27U 45 S DGW 15 ENE CVS 50 SSW CDS 20 WNW SPS CNU 15 SE OJC 30 SSW MTO BWG 40 NNW HKY RIC 25 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX/SERN OK/AR... ...NRN TX NEWD INTO AR... AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR CNU...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX. HOWEVER...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...NEAR A ABI-ADM-FSM-JBR LINE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 6-6.5C/KM...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...500 MB WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ...CENTRAL/SRN AZ... MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AZ. NELY WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL RESULT IN STORMS TO PROPAGATE SWWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION AND IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP...A WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY. ...NRN CA INTO SRN ORE... WV/VSBY IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN CA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCAPES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG AND SHOULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK WINDS FROM THE SURFACE-500 MB...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO WITH BRIEF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..IMY.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 01:06:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 20:06:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407250105.i6P15xX11734@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250103 SWODY1 SPC AC 250101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 ENE BLH 50 SE IGM 55 NNE PHX 65 SW SOW 25 NNE TUS 65 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 45 NNW BLH 55 SW SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 30 SW RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 35 ESE HLN 45 S DGW 15 ENE CVS 25 SW CDS 30 SSE OKC 20 NE CNU SZL 30 SSW MTO BWG 45 E TRI 65 N RWI 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 25 SW AUS 25 SSE JCT 10 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ... ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST AZ... STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN AZ HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-45 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS SWWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. ...ARKLATEX/NRN LA TO THE OZARKS REGION... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TO WRN TX... WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDED EWD ACROSS AR TO THE NRN/ CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...CENTRAL/SERN ORE TO NERN CA/NWRN NV/EXTREME SWRN ID... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...WILL MOVE NWD INTO ORE OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG... WITH THE GREATEST VALUES LOCATED OVER NERN CA AND NRN ORE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NERN CA/NRN NV INTO SRN-ERN ORE AND PORTIONS OF SRN ID AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS NWD. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PER AREA 00Z RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY FROM 50-60 DEGREES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 06:15:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 01:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407250614.i6P6EfX26211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250612 SWODY1 SPC AC 250611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU 55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 ENE RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 35 W 3HT 50 ESE RIW 20 NNW BFF 45 N IML 15 SSE GLD 15 S CAO 15 NE CVS 25 NW BGS 30 SE ABI 15 WNW DAL 40 S MLC 30 SSW UMN 50 SSW STL 20 SE CMH 25 SSW CRW 25 SSW LYH 40 W RIC 25 SSE DCA 25 SSW ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AS IT REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM STRONGER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS CANADA. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA AND WA/WRN ORE WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TRACKING EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE INITIALLY OVER AR WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD AL/TN IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ...CENTRAL-ERN CO/NERN NM... 30 KT OF NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN CO BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ESEWD OF CO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SELY ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING ESEWD INTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. 30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...CENTRAL-SRN AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL-NERN AZ. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. NELY STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 KT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE SWWD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE DESERTS...BUT THE MARGINAL STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. ...CENTRAL-SRN ID/ERN ORE/NRN NV/NWRN UT... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...GULF COAST STATES... AIR MASS FROM SERN TX AND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG HEATING EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AIR MASS...BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 12:48:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 07:48:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407251247.i6PCljX09743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251246 SWODY1 SPC AC 251244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU 55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 ENE RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 35 W 3HT 50 ESE RIW 20 NNW BFF 45 N IML 15 SSE GLD 15 S CAO 15 NE CVS 55 ENE HOB 30 S CDS 30 ESE SPS 40 S MLC 30 SSW UMN 50 SSW STL 20 SE CMH 25 SSW CRW 25 SSW LYH 40 W RIC 25 SSE DCA 25 SSW ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...AND WRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM S TX NEWD THROUGH SRN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL AND N GA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 C ARE RESULTING IN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD TODAY. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ... NELY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIM TO DEVELOP SSWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL AND ERN CO... UPSLOPE REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AIR ORIGINATING FROM A COOL...CLOUDY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION AND STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE MORE LIKELY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN OR. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND MAY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF ID. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OR. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 16:23:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 11:23:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407251622.i6PGMoX06215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251620 SWODY1 SPC AC 251618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ESF 20 W MLU 35 S PBF 10 NNE BWG 30 W JKL 20 WNW TRI 50 S TYS BHM 30 S LUL 20 NNW BTR 10 W ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OWY 30 NW OWY 45 NW BOI 75 SSE S80 50 NNE 27U 35 NE DLN 35 WSW JAC 35 ENE MLD 45 S BYI 25 ESE OWY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE YUM 30 W PRC 20 SSE GCN 55 N INW 40 NE SOW 20 NNE SAD FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU 55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 E RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 20 S 3HT 50 ESE RIW 35 N LAR 50 ESE CYS 40 N LHX 15 WNW CAO 25 N CVS 50 ENE HOB 45 ENE ABI 15 NW DAL 35 SSE MLC 30 E FYV 55 SSW STL 15 W CMH 25 N HLG 10 W LBE 40 ENE EKN 15 N CHO 25 S DCA 35 SE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT... ...PORTIONS TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... MCV/VORT CENTER CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS WRN TN INTO FAR SRN KY THIS MORNING...WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW INCREASING CONVECTION SSWWD TOWARDS FAR NWRN AL ATTM. APPEARS AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE / MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG / WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION LEFT AT 15Z THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT AHEAD OF PERSISTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WRN TN WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN NNEWD ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER INTO SERN KY. IN ADDITION...REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG PERIPHERY OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 20 KT EVIDENT IN AREA VWP/S AND BNA/S 12Z SOUNDING. THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND FAR ERN TX...FLOW ALOFT WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/WET MICROBURSTS WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVERLAYING A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT JAN. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TN MCS EXTENDING SSWWD FROM NERN MS INTO NERN LA. EVEN WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND 70+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPARENTLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AR/WRN TN THIS MORNING. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS DUE TO PULSE-NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...EXPECT SEVERE COVERAGE WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK. ...AZ... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVERALL AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HRS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DRYING AT PHX. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WELL DEFINED MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ ATTM. THIS FEATURE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF AZ. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME VIGOROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT NELY STEERING CURRENT AVAILABLE TO BRING STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. THUS...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOKS WORTHY OF A SLIGHT RISK TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...ID/SWRN MT... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS SERN ORE THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING CENTRAL/SRN ID AHEAD OF IT. THOUGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT HEATING A BIT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT WARMING TO OCCUR FOR MODEST INSTABILITY BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM BOI INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS...SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCUR...WITH PRECIP. WATER AROUND .85 INCHES. GIVEN LARGE SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATE...EXPECT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS STORMS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF APPROACHING VORT CENTER. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 19:50:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 14:50:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407251949.i6PJnhX32112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251947 SWODY1 SPC AC 251945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OWY 35 NW OWY 40 E BKE 30 NE S80 25 S 3DU 35 ESE DLN 40 WSW JAC 35 SE MLD 45 N ENV 25 ESE OWY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM 25 S SGU 35 WSW PGA 15 ENE FLG 55 ESE SOW 25 ESE SAD 20 WSW DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW LUL BTR 20 SE BPT 35 SSW HOU 40 SSW CLL CLL 50 N POE 55 E MLU 15 ENE UOX 15 ESE BNA 25 N LOZ JKL 10 ENE 5I3 40 SW BLF 30 S TRI 40 E RMG 25 NW AUO 55 NW CEW 45 SSW LUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE IPL LAS 55 WNW DRA 65 SSE TVL 65 NNE SAC MHS RDM PDT S06 40 SE FCA GTF 20 E WRL 15 E PUB 45 E LVS ROW 30 S HOB SJT 15 WSW TPL GGG MKL HOP SDF 20 W HLG 25 SW LBE 40 ENE EKN SHD 45 SSW DCA 25 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS/SERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE ID REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS AZ... ...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV LOCATED EAST OF BNA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SERN TX...BUT THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN THE INTENSE HEATING AND WEAK CAP...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT STRETCHES FROM TN SWWD INTO ERN TX. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS. STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD DIMINISH/WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. ...AZ... SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NELY MID LEVEL WINDS. INTENSE SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT AREAS AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN CUMULUS CLOUDS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE NELY STEERING FLOW AND STORM COLD POOLS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DRIVE STORMS SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 35-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...ID/SWRN MT... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A VORT CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE ORE/ID BORDER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE-600 MB ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOULD DEEPEN WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. THESE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 01:07:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 20:07:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407260107.i6Q17KX20138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260103 SWODY1 SPC AC 260101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 NNE RAL 25 WSW DAG 40 ENE DAG 20 W LAS 55 WNW DRA 40 SSW TVL 35 WNW SVE 30 ENE ACV RDM PDT 20 WNW 3TH 25 ESE FCA 35 ENE GTF 20 E WRL 30 SW LHX 55 NNW TCC 20 NNW 4CR 45 ENE ALM 15 WNW FST 60 NNE P07 40 SW BWD 40 NE ACT 50 SE PRX 20 NW TXK 20 ENE HOT 15 SW MEM MKL HOP 15 NNE SDF 20 ESE CAK 25 N LBE 50 ENE EKN 20 NW LYH 25 N GSO 20 ENE CAE 40 SSE AGS 20 SE AYS 30 SE GNV 10 N AGR VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CRE 25 SSW GSB 35 SSW RIC 25 NNE RIC 20 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO GULF COAST STATES... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS WRN TN TO CENTRAL/SRN TX... WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED MORE E-W FROM FAR SRN SC ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO NRN AL. VIS IMAGERY AND MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK MCVS...ONE MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE SECOND ACROSS NRN MS SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...STORM MERGERS ELSEWHERE WILL AID IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF STORMS SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THUS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO 5 PERCENT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WHERE EXISTING STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. ...AZ... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MERGERS EARLY THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NONETHELESS...NNELY STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PROPAGATE SSWWD INTO THE DESERTS WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS AGAIN RESULTED IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES... WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN-WRN ID AT 00Z WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN ID OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA THROUGH THE EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL ORE INTO SRN ID...GIVEN THIS AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SO FAR TODAY. 00Z BOI RAOB SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO BASED ON A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ..PETERS.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 06:06:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 01:06:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407260607.i6Q67TX12098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260603 SWODY1 SPC AC 260601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 N DVL 45 SSE PHP 35 E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 NE SJT 20 WNW CLL 20 SE ELD 35 SSW MKL 25 SSW CKV 40 SW SDF 40 N SDF 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 WNW MSV 15 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 45 SSW ESC 15 WSW LNR 45 SSW LSE 30 NW LSE 10 WNW IWD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST/ SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD OVER WRN CANADA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER TODAY...AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD CAP MOST OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...LIMITING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM THE BLACK HILLS WWD TO PORTIONS OF ERN MT/ERN WY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THESE AREAS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RESULTING IN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR NRN-NERN MT LATE IN THE PERIOD /BY AROUND 03-06Z/ ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MT/NWRN ND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ...CENTRAL/NRN AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN AZ TO THE PORTION OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF LAS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTICELLS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN AZ...BUT THIS LIKELIHOOD IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES OVER THAT PORTION OF AZ. ...GULF COAST STATES TO SRN APPALACHIANS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. IN ADDITION TO THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LEFT OVER FROM SUNDAY/S ACTIVITY. LESS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONG ACTIVITY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 12:50:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 07:50:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407261249.i6QCnfX03136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261247 SWODY1 SPC AC 261245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 N DVL 45 SSE PHP 35 E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 NE SJT 20 WNW CLL 20 SE ELD 35 SSW MKL 25 SSW CKV 40 SW SDF 40 N SDF 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 WNW MSV 15 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 45 SSW ESC 15 WSW LNR 45 SSW LSE 30 NW LSE 10 WNW IWD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH MORE PROMINENT SHORT-WAVE FEATURES INCLUDING A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS...ANOTHER ACROSS SRN ID AND VICINITY...AND A THIRD MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NEWD WHILE TRAILING TROUGH / WEAK FRONT REMAINS ROUGHLY STATIONARY. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE CANADIAN FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN ND. WIDESPREAD STORMS BUT LIMITED IF ANY SEVERE THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS E OF SURFACE TROUGH. STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION -- ALTHOUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY -- AND THUS AIRMASS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WEAK AXIS OF MEAGER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NWD / NNWWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF MT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY / ADJACENT WRN SD AND INTO MT THIS AFTERNOON -- AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGER HIGH-BASED STORMS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO MAINTAIN ONLY 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY. ...PARTS OF AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AZ ATTM INVOF WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NRN AZ IN WEAK NWLY / ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL -- PARTICULARLY IF WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS SOME PROPAGATION SWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 16:19:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 11:19:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407261619.i6QGJ5X14563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261616 SWODY1 SPC AC 261614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 30 E PHP 35 E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 N JCT 20 SW CLL 25 SSE ELD 40 E MEM 50 SSW CKV 30 SSW SDF 45 W LUK 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 45 NNE MTC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 30 N ELM 20 WNW IPT 30 W ABE 20 ESE NEL ...CONT... CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS IL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN ID AND NWRN WY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES REGION... 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOI..TFX..AND RIW MAINTAIN INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM SRN ID INTO WY AND CENTRAL MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. BREAKS IN CLOUDS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK AREA. FARTHER NORTH IN MT...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MT MAINLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY FOCUS A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MT TONIGHT. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ...AZ... 12Z UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A WEAK HIGH LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS AIDING MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL AZ. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE...AND ANTICIPATED STRONG HEATING WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW STRONG CELLS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. ...TN VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS /25-30 KT/ IS NOTED OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY AREA...DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND ATTENDANT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO WV. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN NEWD INTO WV SUGGESTING THAT REGIONS OF LOCALIZED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS AXIS. THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 00:38:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 19:38:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407270037.i6R0bVX06049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270035 SWODY1 SPC AC 270034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW IPL TRM DRA NFL SVE 50 S 4LW 75 E 4LW 40 ENE BOI 50 NW 27U 25 SSE 3DU 15 S GTF 60 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 10 SSE BIS 20 E PHP LAA LVS 4CR ROW BGS SAT 35 NW HOU 15 ESE POE GWO 50 SSW CKV 55 SSE SDF 30 SSW LUK 20 SSE IND 30 NNW LAF 20 NW CGX 15 ESE MKE 25 N GRR 10 SSW FNT 70 N MTC ...CONT... 30 NNW BUF 25 SE ROC 30 S BGM 15 NE ABE 25 ESE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MT/WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE T-TD SPREADS OF 40-50F. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINAL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITHIN SUB-CLOUD LAYER/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1779. ...AZ... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS REMAIN FOCUSED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 00Z TUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE OR DEVELOP SWD/SWWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1780. ...NRN ROCKIES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SRN ID. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 05:18:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 00:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407270518.i6R5IOX00990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270515 SWODY1 SPC AC 270513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RRT 10 SW FAR YKN 40 W EAR 20 NNW IML 20 E BFF 45 NW RAP 30 SE SDY 65 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW PRC 30 N GCN 30 SE U17 55 SW CEZ 45 S GUP 25 N SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W PHX 40 WNW PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM ...CONT... 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 40 WNW DSM 25 NE BIE 35 S HSI 20 SE GCK 30 S GAG 35 WSW MLC 30 SSE TYR 20 SSE LFK 30 S HEZ 20 SSW MSL 40 SSW LEX 40 SE DAY 15 WNW FWA 25 SSE MKE 35 NNE MSN 30 SSW CWA 15 ENE RHI 25 NNE MQT ...CONT... 25 W YUM 40 NNW EED 20 SE P38 70 ESE TPH 45 WNW TPH 25 SW NFL 45 W LOL 75 WNW WMC 25 NE TWF 50 ENE SUN 45 NNE 27U MSO 25 NNW 3TH 80 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH MOST PROMINENT FEATURES BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CANADA AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE FORMER WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES SEWD FROM IT/S SWRN QUADRANT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO CNTRL WY BY MID AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ALSO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY FROM INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT OVER WRN SD SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA BY THIS EVENING WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ...NRN PLAINS/NEB... BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW EXPANSIVE PLUME OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM SRN MANITOBA SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN ND. THOUGH STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE N ACROSS POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...NARROW CHANNEL OF 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE LATER TODAY. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO QUASI-LINEAR MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO BUILD SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WRN NEB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...ANTICIPATED STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD FOSTER VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...AZ... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA/NWRN NV WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...LIKELY ENHANCING TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY...PROMOTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG LEE TROUGH. THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 13:01:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 08:01:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407271300.i6RD0pX11364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271258 SWODY1 SPC AC 271256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RRT 35 ENE ATY 10 NNE YKN 35 W EAR 30 S SNY 45 NNE CDR 60 NE DGW 25 SW GCC 50 W 4BQ 50 ESE GDV 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE IGM 20 N GCN 55 SSE U17 75 NW GUP 20 S GUP 30 NNW SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W PHX 45 ESE IGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 40 NNW EED 20 SE P38 70 ESE TPH 45 WNW TPH 25 SW NFL 45 W LOL 75 WNW WMC 25 NE TWF 50 ENE SUN 45 NNE 27U MSO 25 NNW 3TH 80 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 40 WNW DSM 25 NE BIE 35 S HSI 20 SE GCK 30 S GAG 35 WSW MLC 30 SSE TYR 20 SSE LFK 30 S HEZ 20 SSW MSL 40 SSW LEX 40 SE DAY 15 WNW FWA 25 SSE MKE 35 NNE MSN 30 SSW CWA 15 ENE RHI 25 NNE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG BOTH THE E AND W COASTS. WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS -- THE STRONGER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ATTM WHILE THE WEAKER IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI. THE STRONGER / CANADIAN LOW / TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW ESELY MOVEMENT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS -- AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ENHANCED /35 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW -- SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WEAKER / MIDWESTERN FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN PRAIRIE UPPER LOW -- EXTENDING ATTM FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWWD INTO WRN ND / SRN MT -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SSWWD INTO NWRN KS / SERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ERN U.S. BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST W OF THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...DAKOTAS / NEB... ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PARTS OF NEB...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE / MARGINALLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUGGEST MEAN-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AT BEST IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS ND AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED SWD INTO NEB...IT APPEARS THAT CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER SWD INTO W CENTRAL NEB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / MULTICELL CLUSTERS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...WITH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN SD / NERN NEB. ACROSS THIS REGION...INCREASED ASCENT AND ENHANCED SHEAR -- ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET -- MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT. ...AZ... A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS AZ TODAY AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NV MOVES SEWD. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY OF CENTRAL AND NRN AZ AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WLY COMPONENT TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD IN GENERAL KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL / NERN AZ...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN AZ -- PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP / PROPAGATE SWD / SWWD ALONG POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 16:19:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 11:19:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407271619.i6RGJEX09717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271615 SWODY1 SPC AC 271613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RRT 35 ENE ATY 10 NNE YKN 35 W EAR 30 S SNY 45 NNE CDR 60 NE DGW 25 SW GCC 15 SE 4BQ 25 SW DIK 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE IGM 25 E PUC 35 NNW GJT 35 WSW EGE 20 W 4SL 30 NNW SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W PHX 45 ESE IGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 15 SSE EED 40 E LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 30 SE NFL 50 NNW U31 EKO 45 WSW OGD 30 E MLD 50 NE JAC 40 SSE LVM 40 NE 3DU 45 N FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HVR 40 E LWT 50 WSW MLS 25 ESE MLS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 10 W FRM 10 S BIE 30 NW SLN 15 ENE DDC 30 NNW CSM 40 S OKC 45 ESE LFK 15 NNW LFT 40 SSE MCB 25 S MEI HSV 15 SW LOZ 30 W UNI 20 SSW FDY 20 SE SBN 40 S MKE 15 ESE MSN 35 ENE RHI 15 E MQT 15 SSE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... ATYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A POLAR FRONT HAVING MOVED AS FAR S AS NRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESULT IS THE USUAL MOIST GULF AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE GULF STATES AND UP THE E COAST TO DELMARVA AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE . WHILE ONE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES...STRONGER TROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS SWD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. A SRN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT WILL EFFECT UNSEASONABLY FAR S INTO NRN/CENTRAL AZ EWD INTO NRN NM AND SRN CO. ...NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AS DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60F WILL PRODUCE MLCAPES TO ONLY ABOUT 1500 J/KG BY THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS STRONGER FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD...TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER INTENSIFY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LOW END SLIGHT RISK. ...SWRN U.S... WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE S CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR N AS THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ...THE HIGH LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN HALF AZ /WRN UT IS BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE W. WITH 40-50KT WLY FLOW IN THE 300-250MB LAYER SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NRN NM ALONG WITH DEVELOPING STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND MINUS 9/10 C ...AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AREA. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ/SERN UT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRYING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE S OF RIM AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE HIGH LFC...AROUND 10K FEET...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO CENTRAL DESERTS BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE SEWD FROM MTNS INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS. FURTHER N THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTS OF UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA INTO SWRN CO AND NW NM. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 20:07:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 15:07:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407272007.i6RK7OX17726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272002 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK GFK ATY MHE VTN 35 WNW VTN 10 ESE PHP 40 WSW MBG Y22 50 ENE DIK 65 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TUS 25 SW PHX 20 NE FLG 45 SSE SGU 35 WSW MLF 15 SSW 4HV 40 ESE 4HV 35 ENE DRO 55 NNE 4SL 4SL 50 WNW TCS 30 S SAD 10 WNW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 15 SSE EED 40 E LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 25 ESE NFL 35 SSW WMC 45 NW EKO 10 E OWY TWF 10 S 27U 35 NNW 27U 30 WSW MSO 25 NNE 3DU 25 N HLN 15 S BIL MLS SDY 50 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 20 ESE STC FRM OMA 30 NW SLN DDC 30 NNW CSM 45 E FSI FTW TPL BPT LFT 30 SSE MCB 35 NW MOB TCL CHA 15 S TYS 20 SSW UNI CMH MFD TOL GRR 20 S MKE 25 SE RFD 45 WSW RFD LNR 10 NNW RHI CMX 105 NNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES... STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA. MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WITH ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH/PARTS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. FORCING MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS...AND SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...TOWARD PHOENIX AND AREAS TO THE NORTH/EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL RATHER STRONG NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH FURTHER HEATING. FURTHERMORE...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 28/00Z. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON... VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. I STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IS MINIMIZING HAIL THREAT...BUT HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CAPE/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL SCALE DOWNBURSTS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK. **FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 00:42:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 19:42:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407280041.i6S0fXX24585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280038 SWODY1 SPC AC 280037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N GFK GFK 35 E ATY 10 SW FSD 20 WSW YKN 15 NNW ANW 45 SSE PHP 30 NW PHP 50 S Y22 30 NNE Y22 80 NE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE GBN 60 ESE EED 45 NNE IGM 15 W PGA 50 WSW FMN 25 S GUP 80 WNW TCS 30 S SAD 45 SE GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 20 ESE STC FRM OMA 30 NW SLN 30 NNW P28 END 10 SE OKC 40 SSW ADM ACT BPT LFT 30 SSE MCB 35 NW MOB TCL CHA 15 S TYS 20 SSW UNI 25 ESE CMH 15 SW MFD 30 WSW TOL 30 NW AZO MTW 40 ESE RHI 25 WNW MQT 105 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 15 SW EED 10 ESE LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 25 ESE NFL 35 S WMC 30 NNW BAM 10 SSE OWY TWF 10 S 27U 45 N 27U 20 ESE MSO 30 WNW GTF 60 SSW HVR 55 ESE LWT 10 NW MLS SDY 50 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AZ INTO FAR WRN NM... ...NRN PLAINS... 23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ND SWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD /NEAR PIR/ AND THEN SWWD INTO S-CNTRL WY/N-CNTRL CO. NARROW AXIS OF 60F DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITHIN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN WY... COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT INTO STRONGER CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z ABR SOUNDING. ...AZ/WRN NM... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E-CNTRL NV/SWRN UT TRANSLATING SEWD. THOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS LIKELY PROCESSED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ...LOWER DESERT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER 00Z TUS SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ALONG THE RIM TO SPREAD SWD/SEWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF FLOW AOA 6KM ON THE 00Z FGZ/TUS SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 05:30:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 00:30:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407280529.i6S5TZX19098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280526 SWODY1 SPC AC 280524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW GLD 30 W LBF 25 W BBW 20 WSW EAR 10 NNE CSM 20 NE ABI 35 NNW SJT BGS 35 E CVS 45 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL 15 SSE JLN 30 NNW TXK 35 SSE SHV 10 S HEZ 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 45 ENE CHA SSU 35 W MRB 25 ENE AOO 30 N PSB 10 SW ERI 40 NW ERI ...CONT... 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 10 SSE P38 45 NNW TPH 40 SE LOL 25 SE BAM 25 W DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 45 SSW WEY 30 S HLN 40 N MSO 20 NW FCA 45 WNW CTB 40 NNW GTF 30 W LWT BIL 35 W 4BQ 40 WNW PHP 30 NW PIR 20 NW JMS 70 N GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW EWD/SEWD PROGRESSION OF DOMINANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CNTRL CANADA IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES SEQUENTIALLY MOVE OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUSH SEWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPENING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... DEWPOINTS IN 60S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT THE OF CNTRL ROCKIES ENHANCES DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THOUGH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE...WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EPISODES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF MCV CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL SD. POOR LAPSE RATES /LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION/ WILL LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SHEAR/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ...WY... POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NELY/ELY TODAY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER NWD EXTENSION OF CATEGORICAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC /I.E. MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/. ...HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ACROSS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH 28/00Z ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODEL SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS ACTIVE AND LIKELY RESULTING IN AN OVER-ESTIMATION OF THE INSTABILITY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL OCCURRENCES. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...ERN AZ/NM... SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES SHOULD ENHANCE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 13:06:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 08:06:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407281305.i6SD5sX28993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281303 SWODY1 SPC AC 281301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL 15 SSE JLN 30 NNW TXK 35 SSE SHV 10 S HEZ 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 45 ENE CHA SSU 35 W MRB 25 ENE AOO 30 N PSB 10 SW ERI 40 NW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 10 SSE P38 45 NNW TPH 40 SE LOL 25 SE BAM 25 W DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 45 SSW WEY 30 S HLN 40 N MSO 20 NW FCA 45 WNW CTB 40 NNW GTF 30 W LWT BIL 35 W 4BQ 40 WNW PHP 30 NW PIR 20 NW JMS 70 N GFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES / PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVING EWD THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW. MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF TROUGH -- AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL / LESS INTENSE DISTURBANCES SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. FURTHER E...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN OH WITH SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING TROUGH...WHILE 4O TO 45 KT SWLY JET STREAK SHIFTS FROM PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES...AND SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST / MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING ERN U.S. LOW / TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST / MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE LAGGING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WY INTO WRN NEB / SWRN SD... NELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED. NONETHELESS...PERSISTENT 40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT...MORE PRONOUNCED DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAN NOW ANTICIPATED COULD WARRANT SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE. ...ERN PA / ERN NY AND VICINITY... MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW / TROUGH WHERE WEAK LAPSE RATES EXIST ATTM...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 750 J/KG IS ANTICIPATED...APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THIS REGION CAN SHIFT EWD BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING GREATER DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BENEATH BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD WHERE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. THIS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL IS APPROPRIATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF GREATER SEVERE CONCENTRATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 22:15:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 17:15:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407282215.i6SMF1X25170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281958 SWODY1 SPC AC 281956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 35 NNW SGU 50 WSW DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 15 NNE JAC 15 SE COD 45 WSW GCC 60 SSE 81V 45 ENE AIA 25 NW VTN 40 NNW 9V9 45 SW FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL JLN 35 NNW TXK 30 SE SHV ESF 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 35 NNW AND 15 S ROA 40 NE SHD 25 SSE PSB 50 ESE BFD 45 SE BUF 10 NNW BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DELMARVA TO CENTRAL/ERN NY... AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...AND SWD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL PA. ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AND ERN PA IN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS SWD TO WRN TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX... UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM MT/WY EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER WRN KS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THESE AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER WRN KS SWD TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BORDER AREA...WHERE THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LEE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. VIS IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL AND LIKELY ELEVATED. FARTHER SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...DESPITE THE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM INTO ERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS A FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD OVER THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER FAR SERN WY AND NORTH CENTRAL CO...GIVEN NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 00:50:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 19:50:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407290049.i6T0nbX11315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290046 SWODY1 SPC AC 290045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SEP 15 NNE DAL 20 SSW PRX 35 NNE TYR 20 SE TYR 55 SSW TYR 30 WNW TPL 45 ESE BWD 30 SSW SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 45 ENE IGM 40 SSW SGU 15 NNE P38 35 E ELY SLC 20 ENE EVW 25 NE RKS 15 NNW RWL 50 S DGW 30 NNE SNY 40 ESE LBF 35 NW GRI 15 ESE MHE 55 NNE ATY 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL JLN 35 NNW TXK 30 SE SHV ESF 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 35 NNW AND 15 S ROA 40 NE SHD 25 SSE PSB 50 ESE BFD 45 SE BUF 10 NNW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER A PART OF N-CNTRL INTO NERN TX... ...N-CNTRL/NERN TX... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS PERSIST THIS EVENING ON SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH AREA. WEAK SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER N-CNTRL TX IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS REGION. MOREOVER...CURRENT FTW VWP INDICATES 40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 100-150 M2/S2 SRH THROUGH THE LOWEST 1KM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG /PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO NJ... BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER ERN NY SWD INTO FAR ERN PA/NJ WITHIN REGION OF FORCING AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX LIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NY. THOUGH 00Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50KTS AT 500MB AND 95KTS AT 300MB/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ORGANIZED COLD POOL HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE FROM SE OF RSL TO NEAR DDC WITH OVERALL SYSTEM PROPAGATION TO THE S AT 10-20KTS. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN KS REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE /PER 00Z DDC/ WITH SOME AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. THUS...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...SRN AZ/SWRN NM... 00Z TUS SOUNDING SHOWED WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER THROUGH 700MB WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 700 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL NM ATTM WITH REGION OF FORCING EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN AZ. GIVEN THE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 05:04:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 00:04:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407290504.i6T54MX26891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290501 SWODY1 SPC AC 290500 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4FC 25 SSW WRL 35 E COD 10 N SHR 35 NNE GCC 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 40 WSW PUB 30 N 4FC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 35 SSE CGX 35 S TBN 35 NNE LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP 35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 30 S DMN 20 SE FMN U17 ELY 30 W PIH 25 NW 27U 35 ENE GTF 30 SSW Y22 35 SE BRD 35 ENE EAU 20 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PWM 45 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF CNTRL CANADIAN MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK /NOW OVER W-CNTRL ALBERTA/ WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE TODAY OVER ERY WY/SERN MT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... WY/MT CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE NWWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE /7.5-8.5 C/KM/ PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH AIRMASS ACROSS SERN WY INTO ERN CO/WRN NEB BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK FRONT OR WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN LIKELY OCCUR SWD TO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WY AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE. WNWLY 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER BROAD REGION OF 35-45KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM ERN MT/WRN ND SWD INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO. THUS...AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/MCS OVERNIGHT WHICH MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SD/NEB. DEVELOPMENT OF SWLY LLJ FROM WRN KS INTO SRN SD SHOULD MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHERE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ...ARKLATEX REGION... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F/ WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY TO THE S OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO NERN TX...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND E OF IT/S TRACK. COMBINATION OF MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 12:58:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 07:58:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407291257.i6TCvNX07552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291254 SWODY1 SPC AC 291252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4FC 25 SSW WRL 35 E COD 10 N SHR 35 NNE GCC 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 40 WSW PUB 30 N 4FC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 20 SE FMN U17 ELY 30 WSW PIH 25 NW 27U 35 E GTF 35 SSW Y22 35 SE BRD 35 ENE EAU 20 SE CMX ...CONT... 30 N APN 35 SSE CGX 15 WSW STL 35 WNW POF 50 SSW JBR 10 WNW GWO 35 E TUP 20 ENE LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM WY / SRN MT SWD INTO CO / NRN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE / NRN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS. MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MT WITHIN MODERATE /40 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...MOST SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SWRN FRINGE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN CO / SERN WY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN / RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NERN CO / SERN WY VICINITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOME NWD RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / ELEVATED MIXED SHOULD SPREADING ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT / LEE TROUGH / WEAK SURFACE LOW ALL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VEERING / SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST INSTABILITY... HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION -- AND PERHAPS AS FAR SWD AS SERN CO / NERN NM. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...EWD EXTENT OF THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR ENEWD AS ERN SD / SWRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ARKLATEX REGION... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS SERN OK / PARTS OF NERN TX ATTM...WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN OK. THIS MCS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION INTO AR / NRN LA...WHERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS. ALTHOUGH GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PERSIST FURTHER S ACROSS ERN AND INTO CENTRAL TX S OF ONGOING STORMS...WEAKER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 16:19:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 11:19:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407291618.i6TGIXD10952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291616 SWODY1 SPC AC 291614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FCL CPR GCC 45 WNW RAP 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 25 SW PUB FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 75 ESE SOW 15 S FMN 20 NNW SGU 30 WSW PIH 25 SW MSO 40 NNE HVR 35 SSE DIK 35 SE BRD 45 NNE EAU 15 WSW CMX ...CONT... 30 N APN 40 SSW SBN 10 SSW SLO 30 E POF 30 W MEM 10 WNW GWO 35 E TUP 45 W LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF WY AND CO...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...AND EXTREME NWRN KS... ...ERN CO/ERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN NEB/EXTREME NWRN KS... NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING NRN MT TURNS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN WY REGION WITH A N/S ORIENTED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER ERN PARTS OF CO AND WY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND VERTICAL MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN A SMALL LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON DURING PRIMARY DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AND CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WY AND CO THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD AND SEWD INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH WILL AID FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND PROFILES THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO FORM...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL LEVELS WITHIN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER NEB AND SRN SD STRENGTHENS...WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING AFTER 06Z. ...ERN TX INTO NWRN LA AND SRN AR... STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV OVER ERN OK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND. MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT SUGGEST SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT TO MAINTAIN MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY OCCUR... WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD REDUCE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO MINIMAL LEVELS. ..WEISS/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 20:04:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 15:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407292004.i6TK4HD21263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291955 SWODY1 SPC AC 291953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TAD 25 SW PUB 15 WSW FCL CPR 35 SW GCC GCC 35 ENE 81V 20 SW PHP 15 WNW VTN 30 ESE MHN 40 WSW MCK 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW APN 20 W SBN 20 E MVN 40 NE DYR 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT 20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 25 NNW TWF 35 N 27U 45 SE CTB 50 E HVR 30 S DIK 50 SW AXN 45 E STC 25 ENE IWD 15 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO... ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO. SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM DENVER EXTENDING NWD TO ABOUT CHADRON NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS...WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM IN THIS CORRIDOR. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 20 DEGREES F. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING SLOWLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL TX INTO FAR SE OK. A COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE DALLAS/FT WORTH AREA. STRONG SFC HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL HAS CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 21:42:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 16:42:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407292141.i6TLfwD32620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292138 SWODY1 SPC AC 292136 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TAD 25 SW PUB 15 WSW FCL CPR 35 SW GCC 30 NE 81V 60 SSE Y22 40 NNE PIR 35 NNE 9V9 55 ENE ANW 40 SSE IML 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML ...CONT... 40 NNW APN 20 W SBN 20 E MVN 40 NE DYR 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT 20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 25 NNW TWF 35 N 27U 45 SE CTB 50 E HVR 30 S DIK 50 SW AXN 45 E STC 25 ENE IWD 15 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO... AMENDED FOR EXTENDING SLIGHT RISK INTO CNTRL SD ...CNTRL SD... ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS CNTRL SD...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. REFERENCE MCD# 1793. ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO. SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM DENVER EXTENDING NWD TO ABOUT CHADRON NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS...WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM IN THIS CORRIDOR. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 20 DEGREES F. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING SLOWLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL TX INTO FAR SE OK. A COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE DALLAS/FT WORTH AREA. STRONG SFC HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL HAS CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 00:51:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 19:51:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407300050.i6U0oaD28927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300047 SWODY1 SPC AC 300045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TAD 25 SW PUB 40 ENE FCL 15 SW AIA 40 N CDR 10 NE PHP 25 NNE 9V9 55 ENE ANW 40 SSE IML 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT 20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 15 E TWF 35 WNW IDA 30 SSE WEY 20 NE WRL 30 ESE 81V 35 ESE Y22 50 N ABR 45 WNW AXN 15 S AXN 30 NNE OTG 30 WSW OLU 50 SSE DDC 25 ESE AMA 30 SSW CVS CNM 30 NE FST 20 NNW SJT 35 W MWL 35 NNE MKO 60 NNE JLN 50 SSW IRK 20 S BRL 20 SSE PIA 25 WSW MTO 15 SW MVN 40 SW PAH 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME SLOWLY INTENSIFIES FROM ERN CO...INTO CENTRAL SD. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SHARPLY SWD ALONG NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ECNTRL WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB APPEARS TO BE AIDING SWD SURGE TO SFC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO NERN CO BY 04Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO YET TO BE OVERTURNED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A SEVERE WIND GUST WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY PROPAGATE SWD. ..DARROW.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 05:59:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 00:59:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407300558.i6U5wsD27083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300556 SWODY1 SPC AC 300554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ERI 10 WNW HLG 45 W HTS 35 NE BWG 30 WSW EVV 25 NW HUF 30 E TOL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E TAD 25 NW COS 15 SSW FCL CYS 30 SSW BFF 50 ENE SNY 45 W EAR 15 SSW OLU 35 S SUX 15 NNW OTG 25 ESE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 S ELO 35 N IWD 20 W RHI 15 WSW VOK 30 WNW CID 20 NNW LWD 10 SSE MHK 20 NE P28 20 S GAG 50 NNW CDS 40 WSW AMA 35 ENE TCC 50 E TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 15 W LCI 25 WSW BAF ABE 35 NNW RIC 55 WSW ORF 15 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 65 N TUS 65 SSW GNT 25 N GNT 25 E CEZ 20 SSE PUC 50 SE SLC 25 E EVW 35 NNW RKS 30 SE LND 30 NNE RIW 15 WSW COD 20 NNW WEY 40 NW SUN 65 N WMC 15 ENE SVE RBL 35 E 4BK 55 SSE EUG 55 W BKE 20 SSW LWS 20 N GEG 55 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 45 SSE P24 35 SW MBG 15 SSE PHP 30 NE MHN 25 N BUB 20 SW YKN 50 WSW AXN 20 S BJI 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 35 NW SZL 45 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE LTS 65 NNW ABI BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO MN...IA...SWWD INTO NERN CO BY PEAK HEATING PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST PROFILE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE BY PEAK HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO/KS WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SWD-PROPAGATING ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. FARTHER NORTHEAST...WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MN INTO NRN IA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...OH VALLEY... UPPER VORT MAX OVER MO WILL SHEAR NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL INTO LOWER MI. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM THE TN VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS KY INTO OH BY MID DAY. ANY LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW TYPE ECHOES THAT EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW/BRIGHT.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 13:03:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 08:03:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407301303.i6UD35D24462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301300 SWODY1 SPC AC 301258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI FKL PIT PKB LEX 45 NE BWG 35 WSW EVV HUF 45 E TOL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW OTG 40 NNE RWF DLH IWD RHI ALO 35 SW FOD SUX 45 SSW OTG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD PUB DEN FCL CYS 25 SSE BFF 55 N IML MCK HLC 25 ESE DDC GAG 55 NNW CDS 40 WSW AMA TCC TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 40 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE LTS BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR LCI 25 WSW BAF ABE 35 NNW RIC 30 E ORF ...CONT... 70 NNW MOT 45 SSE P24 35 SW MBG PHP 30 NE MHN 25 N BUB YKN 50 WSW AXN BJI 30 E INL ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 65 N TUS 65 SSW GNT 25 E CEZ 35 S SLC OGD 30 SE LND 30 N RIW COD 50 NW 3HT 85 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL 30 E 4BK 60 SSE EUG 65 E RDM 45 SSW BKE 60 W BOI 55 NW OWY 65 W OWY SVE 15 ENE RBL 50 NW RBL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE-UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE DAY-1. TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN ONT TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WEAKENING FROM MKC AREA SWD AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN ATLANTIC COAST AND 4-CORNERS HIGHS. NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH INTENSIFICATION OF 4-CORNERS ANTICYCLONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER DAKOTAS/NRN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...WEAK CYCLONE ANALYZED OVER SWRN MN/EXTREME ERN SD AREA WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD WRN WI...WITH TRAILING TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB. MCS HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN PAST 2-3 HOURS OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS. THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM E-CENTRAL CO...VICINITY LIC...SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS TO DDC/GCK AREA. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND MOIST ADVECTION IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...AND ONCE CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY...TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING WILL LEAD TO HIGH CLOUD BASES RELATIVE TO CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 150-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO TSTM COMPLEX AFTER DARK WITH SEWD TO SSEWD NET MOTION TOWARD WRN KS...SERN CO AND PERHAPS OK/TX PANHANDLES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COLLECTIVE COLD POOL AND FORWARD PROPAGATION...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT. ...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... TSTM COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND WEAK MOIST ADVECTION-- WITH 60S TO 70 F SFC DEW POINTS -- SHOULD COUNTERACT WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO RAISE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. SEASONALLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS -- I.E. 35-45 KT AT 500 MB AND 70-90 KT AT 250 MB -- SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. FCST LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. THREAT APPEARS PRIMARILY DIURNAL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST RISK INVOF SFC CYCLONE -- WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WEAK CAPPING AND LIFT NEAR LOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM GENESIS. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY AROUND 30/21Z. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THREAT HERE ALSO APPEARS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 31/03Z...THOUGH A SHORT LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WI. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SWWD ALONG SFC FRONT AS EVEN WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 16:35:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 11:35:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407301635.i6UGZGD00864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301632 SWODY1 SPC AC 301630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI FKL PIT PKB LEX 30 N HOP MDH CMI 15 ENE TOL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ATY BRD DLH 40 WSW IWD EAU RST FOD SUX 50 E ATY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD PUB DEN FCL CYS BFF IML 45 NW GCK EHA CAO TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 40 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE LTS BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 50 ESE P24 35 SW MBG 35 ESE PHP 15 ENE VTN 45 ENE ANW 30 NW YKN 45 NNE ATY 35 W BJI 25 E RRT ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 15 W LCI 20 NNE BAF 15 S GON ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 65 N TUS 45 NNE INW U17 60 NW 4HV 45 W U24 45 N ELY 35 WSW BAM 30 E SVE 35 E EKA 15 ENE 4BK 60 NNE MFR 60 SSE RDM 40 SE BNO 40 NW OWY 45 E MLD 30 S LND 25 NNE RIW 15 N COD 50 NW 3HT 85 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/IA/WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THREE AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEAR TO EXIST FOR THE DAY1 PERIOD. ...OHIO VALLEY... WEAK UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ETA/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SYSTEM...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OR STORM-SCALE BOWS. RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. ...MN/IA/WI... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WI BY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF UPSTREAM FEATURE TO FOCUS CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN KS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 20:08:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 15:08:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407302007.i6UK7oD26728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302002 SWODY1 SPC AC 302000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 45 N CSV 55 N MSL 15 SE MKL DYR 25 W PAH 40 S BMG 35 SSE MIE 30 SSE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW FOD 25 SE SPW 25 SE BRD 20 SW DLH 65 WSW IWD 20 NNE EAU 20 ENE ALO 30 NE DSM 40 SSW FOD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END 70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50 S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML 20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9 30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20 NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM 15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO 20 E COS 30 NE FCL 35 SSW BFF 25 N SNY 20 NNW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW GCK 15 W LBL 40 NNE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH RIVER. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW IN SERN MO. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ACROSS IND AND OH WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. AT MID-LEVELS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS SW IND WITH ABOUT 45 KT AT 500 MB. THE IND VAD WIND PROFILE CONFIRMS THIS...SHOWING 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KY..SE IND AND SWRN OH ESPECIALLY IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT ROTATE. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FROM MULTICELL CONVECTION. HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE CELLS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND ACROSS OH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ND AND MN IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL MN WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN MN AND ERN IA. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY STRONGER. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS OF ERN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 00:49:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 19:49:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407310048.i6V0mWD24136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310044 SWODY1 SPC AC 310042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 25 NW LOZ 30 SSW BWG 35 W HOP 35 NNE PAH 30 NNW EVV 15 W BMG 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END 70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50 S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML 20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9 30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20 NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM 15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO 30 ENE PUB 30 N LIC 15 NE AKO 25 WSW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW GCK 15 W LBL 40 NNE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY... HIGH LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. REMNANTS OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER VORT HAS LIFTED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IND INTO NWRN OH WITH LITTLE SFC REFLECTION OTHER THAN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW SPREADING INTO SERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND IN THE WAKE OF UPPER VORT INTO SERN MO HAS AIDED STRONG/SEVERE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION DEPICT SIGNIFICANT SFC-1 KM SPEED SHEAR...ROUGHLY 30 KT AT ILN...VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND STRONGER SPEED SHEAR WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...AT BOTH DNR AND AMA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN NWLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS WHICH MAY AID INFLOW AND ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...MN/WI... CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN A VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BUT MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH AND FOCUS ALONG WIND SHIFT WILL SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION SPREADING INTO WRN WI BEFORE IT GRADUALLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOES NOT SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 06:02:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 01:02:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407310601.i6V61dD12390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310600 SWODY1 SPC AC 310558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 15 W AUG 20 SSW EEN 25 SE MSV 15 NE IPT 40 WNW ELM 30 W ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 40 SSE TVF 30 NNW STC 30 SW RST 40 NNW OTM 15 ENE P35 15 WNW STJ 25 W BIE 30 WNW OFK 25 SE PIR 35 N REJ 45 N MLS 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE GGG 50 WSW OWB 55 ESE IND 20 E TOL 15 NNE FNT 15 ENE HTL 10 ENE MBL RFD 40 SSE IRK 30 SSE CDS 25 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK 70 ENE P07 15 ENE GGG ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SE PHX 35 WSW PRC 55 SE SGU 75 NNE INW 55 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 50 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC 40 W RBL 30 SE EKA 30 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 25 ENE EUG 55 NE BKE 60 E S80 35 E 3TH 65 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO IA... ...NERN U.S... BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PA INTO UPSTATE NY...SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 70F. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT PROVIDE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH SFC PATTERN DOES NOT DISPLAY A STRONG REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE WILL FOCUS ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY AROUND 18Z...WITH A GRADUAL NEWD SHIFT/FOCUS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE NY BY 00Z. VERY MOIST PROFILES AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION BUT SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ROUGHLY 35-40KT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...20-30KT...IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENT ORIENTATIONS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS UPPER SPEED MAX LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NY INTO SRN CANADA. ...NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OF 30-60M WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES WILL...HOWEVER...ENABLE MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD WITH TIME SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. EARLY IN THIS EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD NOT DISPLAY A STRONG CAPPING SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION FRIDAY EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BY AFTERNOON. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL BE ONE ZONE OF POTENTIAL INITIATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS VEERED LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS REGION AFTER DARK IT APPEARS A CLUSTER OF SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE...THEN PROPAGATE SSEWD TOWARD NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS THEN DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED. FARTHER NORTH...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG BOUNDARY FROM NERN MT INTO ND SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD NCNTRL PORTIONS OF SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DARROW.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 13:00:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 08:00:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407311259.i6VCxTD29850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311257 SWODY1 SPC AC 311255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL STC 30 ENE MCW 40 NNW OTM P35 STJ BIE PIR 55 S GDV GDV ISN 70 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL CON POU ABE CXY AOO 25 SSE DUJ ART 35 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TYR DYR 25 W LUK 35 E TOL FNT HTL MBL 30 NNW MMO COU LTS 25 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK SJT TYR ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SE PHX INW 75 NNE INW 55 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 50 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC RBL 30 SE EKA 30 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR EUG 55 NE BKE 60 E S80 35 E 3TH 65 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PA TO NRN NY AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION IS COMMENCING...TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL MIDSUMMER REGIME. 4-CORNERS AREA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AS WILL RIDGE EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LS -- WEAKENS AND ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS JAMES BAY REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BROAD BELT OF WNWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN BC ESEWD TO WI...AND 70-80 KT 250 MB SPEED MAX ALONG AND JUST N OF CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...NEARLY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFFSHORE CAPE MENDOCINO WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED OVER ERN UPPER MI WITH WEAK COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS IA. EXPECT BOTH LOW AND FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NEWD...AND AS [PARENT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS JAMES BAY. MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS IN NERN STATES INSTEAD WILL BE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NY SWWD ACROSS ERN KY. FARTHER W...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER ERN MT...CENTRAL/WRN SD AND WRN ND -- ALONG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING ESEWD TOWARD SRN MN. ...NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST... HEIGHT RISES ALOFT OF 30-60 M -- ALONG WITH NEWD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM HIGHER TERRAIN -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED OR ALTOGETHER SUPPRESSED...DESPITE LARGE BUOYANCY RESULTING FROM INCREASING LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE MOISTURE/HEATING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CORRIDOR...BEST POTENTIAL ATM APPEARS TO BE OVER ERN SD/SWRN MN AREA WHERE CAP MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE WILL INCREASE FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG WRN DAKOTAS TO 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE BETWEEN ABR AND NWRN IA. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MAY TURN SSEWD AS SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY CAPPING. AFTER DARK...ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AIR MASS JUST ABOVE SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. TSTMS MAY THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TO SWD DOWN MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...NERN CONUS... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY HEATS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F IN INFLOW AIR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND FROM BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. LOW LCL AND RELATIVELY LARGE VALUES OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE THAT ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO...BUT THIS IS A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK THAN FOR DAMAGING WIND. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT WHILE MLCAPE INCREASES SWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DURING 15-18Z TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS WRN NY AND WRN PA...PROGRESSING EWD THROUGHOUT DAY. EXPECT 150-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 20-30 KT VECTOR SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 2 KM. MEANWHILE...HEATING AND MOISTURE AT SFC WILL OVERCOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE CENTRAL PA...BECOMING LESS THAN 500 J/KG ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 00Z...WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND OF MOST OF REMAINING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 16:08:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 11:08:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407311607.i6VG7rD22614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311602 SWODY1 SPC AC 311600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL STC ALO 30 SSE DSM 40 NNW FNB OLU PIR BIS 55 NE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL CON POU ABE CXY AOO DUJ SYR 35 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 30 NNW GBN 40 SE IGM 30 WSW GCN 45 S 4BL 35 SSE MTJ 30 SW CAG 40 ENE VEL 45 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC 25 W RBL 20 SE EKA 50 WNW MFR 25 E EUG 30 NNE BKE 65 E S80 45 E 3TH 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FNT 20 E HTL MBL 30 N MMO 35 W JEF 30 WNW JLN 30 SE CDS 30 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK 25 SW SJT BWD 30 S PRX 60 SW JBR 40 SE PAH 15 ESE OWB 30 W LUK 40 E TOL 15 ESE FNT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...PA/NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS /35-45 KNOTS/ EXTENDING FROM OH/WV ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO LIES ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF PA/NY/VT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY MOIST...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TO MODERATE LEVELS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON. ETA/ETAKF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF VT/NH/MA BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR GGW. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY EVENING. A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS CAP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD/EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IA/NEB DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 20:11:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 15:11:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407312010.i6VKAXD31838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312004 SWODY1 SPC AC 312003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 15 NNE AUG 15 SSE LCI 30 N EWR 35 WSW DCA 15 NW MRB 30 E PSB BGM 30 WNW PBG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 25 NNE BRD 70 S DLH 10 NNW LSE 35 E ALO 40 SW ALO 55 ENE OMA YKN ABR 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 25 SE FST BWD TXK 25 WNW UOX BWG SDF 10 NW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS IGM CDC EVW TWF WMC 25 W RBL 15 SSE EKA 50 NNE 4BK 20 S SLE BKE 65 E S80 MSO 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 ENE ELO 35 W IMT MKE IRK 25 SE EMP DDC EHA ROW ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF ERN PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... ...ERN PA AND NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WITH A BAND OF 35-45 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED BACK IN OH...A THICK AREA OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT EWD FOR ABOUT 150-200 NM. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS STRENGTHENED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AIDED IN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE INSTABILITY TO MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN SMALL BOWS WITHIN THE LINE AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING...SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN NWRN ND AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THIS FEATURE IN SERN ND BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN MN AND THEN SEWD INTO CENTRAL IA. LOW LEVEL JET FROM CENTRAL KS NWD INTO SWRN MN HAS INCREASED THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO ADVECTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY TO BECOME THE GREATER THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA TONIGHT. ...ERN NEB/NERN KS AND NRN MO... HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN WRN SD AND WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS HAVE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING AS THEY ENCOUNTERED THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO INGEST RICHER MOISTURE. THEREFORE ...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 05:48:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 00:48:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407030549.i635nE113739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030547 SWODY1 SPC AC 030545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE UNO 50 SSW BLV 20 NE MVN 20 N OWB 10 SW BWG 10 NW MSL 10 NE GWO 20 S PBF 30 WNW LIT 15 ESE UNO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PHP 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW BBW 30 N DDC 10 NE LBL 35 WNW EHA 20 N LHX 40 NW AKO 45 SW RAP 30 NNW PHP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SSW ELM 35 S CXY 35 SW WAL ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 60 NE CLL 35 NW ACT 35 W BWD 70 N DRT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 65 E DUG 50 NW TCS 4SL 50 SSW GUC GJT 20 ENE PUC 25 NW U24 15 S ELY 20 SW TPH 20 NNE NID 10 WSW EDW 20 NNE OXR 15 NNE SCK 40 SSW MHS 35 N MFR 30 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR TO SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS TO SWRN SD... ...LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY... MID MS VALLEY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL ENSURE A NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN KS...ARCING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER AR...NEWD INTO SRN IL/IND. EARLY THIS MORNING...MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION EXPOSE THE CYCLONIC NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF MCI IN NWRN MO. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DUE TO STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OK APPEARS TO BE AIDING EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FROM SRN MO/NRN AR INTO NERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS ERN OK/AR BY 12-15Z. LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RENEWED...POSSIBLY MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A ZONE FROM SERN AR INTO SRN IL BENEATH MODEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVOR AT LEAST MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SOME HAIL OR WIND WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...HIGH PLAINS... SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...ACROSS WY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN SD INTO WRN NEB AS LLJ BEGINS TO RESPOND AND INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...1500-2500J/KG SBCAPE...STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SPEED SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL TYPE UPDRAFTS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS ONE OR MORE POSSIBLE MCS/S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH SEWD PROPAGATION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 12:46:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 07:46:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407031247.i63Cli106360@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031245 SWODY1 SPC AC 031243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PBF 30 NNW LIT 15 E UNO 50 SSW BLV 20 NE MVN 20 N OWB 10 SW BWG 10 NW MSL 10 NE GWO 20 SSW PBF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 45 NNE VTN 25 SSW BBW 30 N DDC 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SSW ELM 35 S CXY 35 SW WAL ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 25 WSW CLL 55 W TPL 50 N JCT 70 N DRT 40 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU 50 SSW SOW 30 NW SOW 40 NE FLG 45 SE SGU 35 NW P38 55 NW DRA 20 NNE NID 10 WSW EDW 20 NNE OXR 15 NNE SCK 40 SSW MHS 35 N MFR 30 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE PSM 45 N BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...MID MS VALLEY... A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK AND AR SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO NRN LA. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MO. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW'S PERIPHERY AS TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NW LA NNEWD TO WRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S F. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 45 TO 50 KT ACROSS NCNTRL OK. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BARELY INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THE 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FROM MEMPHIS TN SHOWS MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG. AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SE MO SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE MODE OF CONVECTION. 25 TO 35 KT OF FLOW IS FORECAST AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ...HIGH PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NRN WY WILL MOVE EWD INTO SD AND NEB THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN NEB ACROSS WRN KS. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SFC TEMPS FROM 85 TO 95 F ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE 21Z FORECAST SOUNDING FOR GOODLAND SHOWS ABOUT 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED OR EXCEEDED. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STORMS. THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE NE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION AND THE STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 16:07:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 11:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407031608.i63G8P105949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031605 SWODY1 SPC AC 031604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ELD 45 NE PBF 25 ESE POF 25 ENE BLV 55 ESE MMO 25 W MIE 25 ENE SDF 25 SSE MSL 25 WNW JAN 25 SSW ELD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 35 NW OFK 20 SW LNK 20 NE SLN 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT 15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 40 S MAF 35 WSW FST 10 SSW MRF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30 NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38 70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45 WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 25 NW IPT 35 S CXY 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NE PWM 60 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...WRN OH/MID MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW MO/IA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO WI BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN MO WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM IR/WV IMAGERY OF A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NERN KS FRI NOW A WEAKER CIRCULATION OVE SRN IA WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING S OF THIS CENTER ACROSS MO INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS REDUCING HEATING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF IL...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO INDIANA THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80S AND DEWPOINTS LOW 70S. MUCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 2500 J/KG AND ABOVE WITH LITTLE CIN MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IN AT 15Z. WITH A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LCL/S OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE MUCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES AND MOVED THE RISK AREA NWD THRU ERN IL/IN. FURTHER S ACROSS WRN TN VALLEY INTO NRN PORTION OF LOWER MS VALLEY...THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A MORE PULSE SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WITH A MODEST W/WNWLY FLOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...A PULSE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATE E/SEWD. TONIGHT A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NEB. THE OUTLOOK THEREFORE HAS SPREAD SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LAST DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 16:46:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 11:46:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407031647.i63Gl3117413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031645 SWODY1 SPC AC 031644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EHA 15 NNE LHX 45 NW AKO 55 SW RAP 10 ENE RAP 15 ENE PHP 35 NW OFK 20 SW LNK 20 NE SLN 10 NE LBL 30 WNW EHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ELD 45 W MEM 35 ESE POF SLO 50 NW LAF 35 NW MIE 25 E SDF 10 WSW HSV 35 ENE JAN 25 SSW ELD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT 15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 40 S MAF 35 WSW FST 10 SSW MRF 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30 NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38 70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45 WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 25 NW IPT 35 S CXY 20 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NE PWM 60 W 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS... ...WRN OH/MID MS VALLEY... UPPER LOW MO/IA WILL LIFT NEWD INTO WI BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NERN MO WILL ALSO MOVE NEWD INTO NWRN IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM IR/WV IMAGERY OF A DOUBLE STRUCTURE TO THIS SYSTEM WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NERN KS FRI NOW A WEAKER CIRCULATION OVE SRN IA WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS ROTATING S OF THIS CENTER ACROSS MO INTO WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS REDUCING HEATING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF IL...HOWEVER FURTHER E INTO INDIANA THE AIR MASS IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 80S AND DEWPOINTS LOW 70S. MUCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO 2500 J/KG AND ABOVE WITH LITTLE CIN MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN IN AT 15Z. WITH A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW LCL/S OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE MUCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES AND MOVED THE RISK AREA NWD THRU ERN IL/IN. FURTHER S ACROSS WRN TN VALLEY INTO NRN PORTION OF LOWER MS VALLEY...THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A MORE PULSE SEVERE THREAT BY MID AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WITH A MODEST W/WNWLY FLOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INITIALLY RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...A PULSE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATE E/SEWD. TONIGHT A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE NWD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS OVER NEB. THE OUTLOOK THEREFORE HAS SPREAD SEVERE RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LAST DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. ..HALES.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 20:16:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 15:16:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407032017.i63KH5113435@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032012 SWODY1 SPC AC 032010 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW GCK 25 SW GLD 15 W CYS 20 ENE DGW 25 N RAP 15 ENE PHP 30 N OFK 30 SSW OMA 25 NW EMP 10 W P28 15 SSW GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW UOX 35 SSE MKL 25 W HOP 30 WNW MMO 30 S MKE 20 N GRR 40 SSE FDY 30 NW LOZ 25 NW GAD 20 SW GWO 15 NW UOX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 50 NNE VCT 15 SE ACT 25 W SEP 40 E BGS 20 SSW FST 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 70 SE ELP 25 E ELP 20 N ELP 40 SE TCS 25 ENE SVC 30 NE SAD 30 S SOW 15 ENE SOW 50 SW GNT 30 SSE GUP 25 WSW GUP 55 ENE INW 20 NE INW 55 NNW INW 20 NE GCN 35 WNW GCN 35 SW SGU 35 WNW P38 70 WNW P38 15 SSE TPH 35 NE NID 35 NW EDW 20 E BFL 30 NNE BFL 20 ENE FAT 35 E SCK 35 NE SAC 35 SE RBL 15 SSE RBL 45 ENE UKI 30 ENE UKI 45 WSW RBL 20 ENE ACV 30 WSW MFR 25 SSE RDM 20 SW ALW 35 WSW GEG 70 WNW 4OM ...CONT... 20 NW ART 20 ENE PSB 30 NNW DCA 30 SSW WAL ...CONT... 15 NE PWM 35 N 3B1 35 NNW CAR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH / TN VALLEYS INTO THE SRN LOWER LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS... ...PARTS OF THE OH / TN VALLEYS / SRN UPPER LAKES... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS IND AND VICINITY AS MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN IA / WRN IL / NERN MO ATTM. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NEWD AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS IND AND INTO WRN OH / LOWER MI. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 1485. ...PARTS OF THE PLAINS... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE S OF FRONT DROPPING SWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS S OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SWD TO W TX AS CAP WEAKENS LOCALLY. WEAKER FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUGGESTS MAINLY PULSE STORMS WITH A LOCAL HAIL / WIND THREAT. ALSO...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PULSE / HIGH-BASED...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL THE MAIN THREATS HERE THROUGH MID-EVENING. SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN WY / SWRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MOVE SEWD...AND THEN INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELT OF STRONGER /AROUND 40 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ALTHOUGH INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELL / SUPERCELL...ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ..GOSS.. 07/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 06:00:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 01:00:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407040601.i64615100846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040558 SWODY1 SPC AC 040556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ROC 30 NE PSB 50 SSE LBE 25 NNW PKB 20 W MFD 25 SSE JXN 15 NE LAN 45 E APN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 10 WNW Y22 25 WSW PIR 15 ENE ANW 30 NE OFK 35 S MCW 30 E CID 35 E UIN 35 WNW POF 55 SW JBR 30 NNW HOT 30 SSW MKO 20 SSW PNC 30 E GAG 45 SSW GAG EHA 50 N LAA 10 E SNY 20 WSW 4BQ 40 SSW BIL 40 E LVM 40 NW LWT 30 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 15 SSW LCH 35 WNW MLU 45 E PRX 45 E SPS 10 N BWD DRT ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 10 ESE TCS 10 N ONM 25 W SAF 20 NNW DRO 40 N 4BL 20 SSE MLF 20 WNW P38 60 S TPH 20 E NID 30 ESE BFL 30 E SCK 35 S LMT 90 SE BNO 40 SE ALW 40 WSW GEG 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NE OLF 50 SSE ISN 30 SW BIS 55 NNW ABR 35 ESE FAR 35 WNW INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING AND PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM POSITIVELY TILTED IMPULSE ENTERING THE UPPER LAKES REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS/MO VLYS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS 1/ SRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERTS BECOMES DISLODGED AND MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND 2/ NRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SETTLES SEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASING WLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. ...UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... BROAD SWATH OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING ENEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF HEATING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. NONETHELESS...STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST TO KEEP AT LEAST CONDITIONAL RISKS OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. STRONGEST FORCING/TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PASS NEWD INTO ONTARIO. ANY CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF ERN LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD TORNADOES OR GUSTY WINDS. ...CNTRL TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTMS /WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS/ ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD VCNTY THE MO/KS/AR/OK BORDER. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LLJ REMAINS VEERED AND DIRECTED INTO THE DECAYING MCS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CAUSE BACKBUILDING TSTMS INTO NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND NRN AR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM VERY UNSTABLE...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MEANWHILE...CAP IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NWD INTO SRN KS SUNDAY. MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY BENEATH THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE VCNTY TRIPLE POINT SWRN KS AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEWD INTO SERN NEB AND SRN IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR 35-40 KTS AND MLCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER MCS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ESEWD INTO NERN OK...SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS...WITH THE NRN-MOST STORMS /ACROSS NRN MO/ WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ATOP RESIDUAL BUBBLE HIGH FROM THE EARLY SUNDAY MCS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THE LENGTH OF THE LEE-TROUGH/ BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN NERN CO...BLACK HILLS AND INTO CNTRL MT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INFLUX OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CNTRL MT-BLACK HILLS REGION BENEATH APPROACHING MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH/INCREASED WLY FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND MOVE EWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF SD AND NEB SUNDAY NIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS... DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONVERGENT THAN ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...IF THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING WILL BE NEAR THE WRN OK BORDER INTO SWRN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS LOW...AND WILL REFLECT LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE ATTM. ...CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN AREA... A MCV MAY EVOLVE FROM UPSTREAM CNTRL PLAINS CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE EWD INTO THE KY/TN AREA BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY THE MCV AND TRACK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN DURING THE EVENING WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 13:02:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 08:02:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407041303.i64D3Z127263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041301 SWODY1 SPC AC 041258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ROC 30 W ELM 25 NE AOO 30 E MGW 20 SSE ZZV 30 ESE FDY FNT 30 NE PLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PGO 40 NW PGO 10 E TUL 25 NE PNC 35 ESE P28 15 SE GAG 50 WSW GAG 10 ESE EHA 50 W GLD 25 SSE BFF 15 SSW GCC 25 SW 3HT 35 SSE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 SSE HVR 40 W GDV 25 WSW Y22 9V9 30 SW SUX 20 NE P35 50 NE COU 50 NNW POF 35 SW ARG 30 NNE HOT 30 E PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW MOT 30 WSW P24 25 SW BIS 55 NNW ABR 35 ESE FAR 35 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 NNW EFK 15 SE LEB 15 SE GON ...CONT... 25 S LCH 10 ENE SHV 40 SE PRX 40 NNE DAL 10 N BWD DRT ...CONT... 55 SW DMN 25 W TCS 40 NW ONM 25 WSW 4SL 20 NNW DRO 40 N 4BL 20 SSE MLF 20 WNW P38 60 S TPH 20 E NID 30 ESE BFL 30 E SCK 35 S LMT 90 SE BNO 40 SE ALW 40 WSW GEG 60 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT AND SPREAD STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO AND WRN KS. OTHER STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SE MT SEWD INTO WRN NEB. THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. IN THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD COINCIDE WELL WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S F AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F WILL FEED AN MCS AS IT TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS KS DURING THE EVENING. STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS AND WLY FLOW AT ABOUT 35 KT WILL RESULT IN 35 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 9.0 C/KM. SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS GREATER THAN 20 DEGREES F WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW NE OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS. THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS SPREADS EWD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS. ...OZARK PLATEAU... A LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR NW AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD THIS MORNING. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL AR LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE SHOULD OCCUR AS IT OUTRUNS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY OVER NE OK AND FAR SW MO. A COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STABILIZING THE AIR OVER SE KS...SW MO...ERN OK AND AR...LIKELY PREVENTING STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM RE-OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. ...ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY. LINES OF CONVECTION WILL SPIN AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LOW...MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH AND ERN LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY AND WRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN OH BY EARLY EVENING AS A SECONDARY BAND OF ASCENT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER-LOW. ..BROYLES.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 16:14:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 11:14:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407041615.i64GFR118850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041612 SWODY1 SPC AC 041610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N ROC 30 W ELM 25 NE AOO 35 NNE SSU 15 NW BKW 30 ESE FDY FNT 30 NE PLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E PGO 40 NW PGO 35 SSW TUL 45 NE OKC 30 S END CSM 55 ENE P07 25 WSW FST 20 ESE LAA 25 SSE BFF 15 SSW GCC 25 SW 3HT 35 SSE GTF 40 ENE GTF 30 SSE HVR 40 W GDV 25 WSW Y22 9V9 30 NE STJ 40 NE SDF 30 SSW LOZ 40 SSE TYS 10 NW GAD 20 NNW GWO 30 E PGO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ELP 45 ENE DMN 25 NW TCS 45 N GNT 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 65 NE SVE 45 W WMC 25 ENE WMC 35 WSW OWY 35 NW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 15 N EFK 15 SE RUT 30 S POU 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 25 WSW FAR 30 W BJI 25 E INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OH VALLEY/WRN PA AND NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US WITH SEVERAL S/WVS AFFECTING AREAS E OF THE ROCKIES. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSES NRN ROCKIES. IN SRN BRANCH MID LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM WILL SHIFT INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS BY EARLY TONIGHT. A RATHER WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO NRN LWR MI WSWWD TO MO/IA BORDER WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN OH WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY/PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY. CURRENT SEVERE MCS AR/MO BORDER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT CROSSES MS RIVER. OUTFLOW FROM MCS EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN OK AND WILL TEND TO RETURN NWD INTO SRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LINE SHOULD MIX EWD AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM SWRN CORNER KS SWD THRU TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...ERN OH VALLEY/WRN NY PA... ...REF MCD 1495... VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WRN OH. WITH LITTLE CAP..EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL ENHANCE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ALONG WITH THE 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING...HELICITIES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING AFTERNOON...BUT PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ...PLAINS... RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR THE HIGH PLAINS FROM TX TO SD AS BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS E OF DRY LINE SRN PLAINS WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH ENHANCED MID/UPPER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH ENTERING SRN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG/E OF DRY LINE AND VICINITY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL RETURN NWD INTO SRN KS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE BOTH THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE RELATIVELY HIGH BASES WITH EXPECTED VERY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE. PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE MAY BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK IF THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER N WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF NRN ROCKIES TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO SERN MT AND SPREAD E/SEWD THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK THUS SEVERE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELL/PULSE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS. ...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY... ...REF MCD 1496 AND 1497 HAVE EXPANDED THE RISK AREA EWD AS THE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY. WITH SUCH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL PLOWS THRU THE HIGH INSTABILITY. DEVELOPING STORMS CENTRAL IL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WIND MAX ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD AND BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING WITH MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG ..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:22:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:22:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407042023.i64KNg125636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042016 SWODY1 SPC AC 042014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE MSS 35 S UCA 20 NNE HGR 35 NNE SSU 50 ESE LOZ 30 E CHA 15 WNW GAD 20 NNW GWO 35 ESE PGO 50 SSW TUL 30 S END 10 NE CSM 60 NE P07 25 WSW FST 25 N TCC ALS 25 N CYS 20 S GCC 25 SW 3HT 40 SSE GTF 35 ENE GTF 65 E HVR 35 WNW Y22 35 SSE FSD 20 ENE P35 10 SSW MTO 25 SW ZZV 30 SW CAK 20 W FNT 40 ENE PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 45 E DUG 25 S TCS 20 SSW ONM 35 NE GNT 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 75 SE 4LW 45 W WMC 25 NNW WMC 50 WNW OWY 45 WNW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 25 WSW FAR 30 W BJI 25 E INL ...CONT... 15 N EFK 10 WSW RUT 25 S PSF 10 E ISP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MID MS / OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS NEB / KS... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MT SEWD INTO CO...WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN NEB / ERN CO / KS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD / SEWD WITH TIME INTO WRN SD / NEB / KS...IN ADDITION TO NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS / NEB...WHERE MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT BENEATH GENERALLY SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...WITH THREAT PERHAPS TRENDING TOWARD PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH BOWING / MCS-TYPE ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. ...ERN OH / WRN PA / WRN NY / WV... STORMS CONTINUE FROM ERN LOWER MI SEWD ACROSS ERN OH / WRN PA INTO WV...WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME ACROSS WRN PA / WRN NY...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING...STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...MID MS / TN / LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... BOWING MCS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ATTM...WHILE STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SERN IL AS THEY APPROACH SWRN IND. WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH MODERATE / WLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN / OH VALLEYS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM ATTM...AND SHOULD DEVELOP SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF W TX / THE PANHANDLE REGION AND PERHAPS WRN OK WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY / SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 07/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 03:01:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 22:01:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407050303.i65338101227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050103 SWODY1 SPC AC 050100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LWD IRK 45 ENE JEF 40 NW POF 25 WSW ARG 35 NNE LIT 20 N HOT 15 NNE PGO 50 SSW TUL 25 NNW OKC 25 S CSM CDS 35 ENE PVW 15 SSE AMA 25 ESE EHA 15 SSW LAA 35 N LHX LIC 25 ESE AKO 40 E SNY 25 E CDR 10 E 81V 40 NNW REJ 20 NNW Y22 25 NW HON 25 S FSD 55 SW FOD 25 N LWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EFK 10 WSW RUT 25 S PSF 10 E ISP ...CONT... 25 S LCH 35 NW LFT HEZ 50 E MLU 15 NNW MLU 40 NNE DAL 25 NNE ABI DRT ...CONT... 35 SE ELP 20 SW ROW 55 SSE LVS 55 SSW ALS 10 SW FMN 45 SSW 4BL 20 W U17 60 WNW P38 45 SSW U31 30 SSE NFL 55 S NFL 55 N BIH 15 ESE BIH 35 SSW BIH 45 ENE MER 35 SW TVL 60 W RNO 40 E RBL 45 SSE MHS 45 E MHS 75 SE 4LW 45 W WMC 25 NNW WMC 50 WNW OWY 45 WNW TWF 40 W SUN 45 NNE BOI 35 NNE BKE 45 WNW PUW 55 WSW 4OM 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE OLF P24 40 ESE BIS 45 SSE FAR BRD 85 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS... ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS... MESOANALYSIS AND 00 UTC SOUNDINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW TWO MAIN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. ONE AREA WILL BE ACROSS NEB AND THE OTHER ACROSS KS AND NRN OK EWD INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. DOMINANT MCS SHOULD EVOLVE OVER CNTRL/SRN KS THIS EVENING. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING OUT OF CO AND NEWD FROM OK. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS-NRN OK-SWRN MO-NWRN AR AND THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD ALONG SRN EDGE OF COLD POOLS INTO THE 40 KT SWLY LLJ. AT THE SAME TIME... LEADING EDGE OF THE TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD FORWARD PROPAGATE GIVEN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE SEGMENTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS/S MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SWRN MO...NERN OK AND NWRN AR. OTHER TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING ACROSS SWRN SD AND WRN NEB ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED. EVENING RAOB/PROFILER/VWP ANALYSIS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF MT/WY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NEB ALONG A WEAK FRONT WHERE A PERSISTENT CU FIELD IS OBSERVED. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE MO VLY AND MAY PERSIST INTO WRN IA/NWRN MO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH ATTENDANT DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN PLAINS... ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL TO JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD ACROSS KS...THE TX PNHDL AND OK THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MAY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO WRN OK WHERE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL EXIST. FARTHER S...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING. UNTIL THEN...ANY TSTM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...WRN NY INTO THE CAROLINAS... BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ALONG TAIL END OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD. STRONGEST WLY FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ...SERN STATES... WEAKENING TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/EARLY DAY DERECHO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NWRN GA AND ERN AL. THESE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..RACY.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 05:53:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 00:53:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407050554.i655s3114570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050550 SWODY1 SPC AC 050547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BNA TBN 25 SSW END 35 WSW CSM 65 NE AMA 20 NNW GCK 35 NNE AKO 40 ENE CYS 25 NNE AIA 45 SSE 9V9 40 SW OTG 30 NE CID 40 SSE CGX 25 ESE DAY 35 NNW JKL 50 NNW CSV 30 ESE BNA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W 3B1 10 NE PSF 25 NW MSV 25 SSE ROC 35 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N OLF 15 S SDY 40 NE Y22 35 N ABR 50 WSW DLH 20 SSW IMT 10 NNE MKG 10 ESE LAN 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 45 E AUS 30 NNE TXK 30 SSE MLC 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 35 SSW HOB 20 ESE TCC 50 S RTN 40 NNE INW 40 NE LAS 30 NW DRA 60 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 SE FAT 30 NNW FAT 40 ENE SCK 20 NW RNO 50 E U31 40 SSW DPG 50 SE SLC 40 ENE EVW 55 E SUN 55 ESE S80 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY AND VT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM...THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING ENEWD ONTO THE SRN PLAINS NOW...WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS THE MO VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY AS NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IN WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND WAVE WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NY AND THE OH VLY MONDAY EVENING. TAIL END OF THE SAME FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF MO AND OK BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... COMPLICATED FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED AND MONDAY/S FORECAST SCENARIOS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OWING TO IMPACTS OF ONGOING MCS/S. MESOSCALE VORT CENTER WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING MCS OVER KS EARLY MONDAY AND MOVE NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN IMPULSE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ FEEDING UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PORTIONS OF ANY ONGOING MCS/S THAT MOVE ENEWD INTO IA...IL AND IND THROUGH THE DAY. AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY IN WAKE OF MCS/S/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG FROM NRN MO INTO CNTRL IL. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND PERSISTENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM INITIATION OR REGENERATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY FLOW OF 40 KTS IN A LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSTREAM...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT/DRYLINE AND ALONG THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB. AS THE CAP IS BREACHED...OWING TO HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE MARGINAL...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRUCTURES TRENDING TOWARD MORE LINE SEGMENTS WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB...KS AND INTO MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FINALLY...FARTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PASSING OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE EARLY IN THE DAY...HOWEVER...MAY TEND TO KEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE DRYLINE WEAK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INITIATION. GIVEN TSTMS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...UPSTATE NY INTO VT... BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WARM MOIST AIR MASS TRANSLATES NEWD. DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN HEAT IN WAKE OF WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN SERN CANADA AND MOVE EWD INTO NY AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. BUT...INCREASING WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 13:00:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 08:00:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407051301.i65D13108401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051258 SWODY1 SPC AC 051256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CDS 30 NW CDS 60 NE AMA 25 WSW GCK 30 WNW GLD 30 W SNY 20 ENE BFF 45 ENE AIA 55 SSE 9V9 30 WSW SPW 25 W DBQ 30 WNW FWA 20 W ZZV 35 NNW CRW 35 SSW CRW 30 SW 5I3 15 S BWG 30 ESE UNO 35 NNW FYV 30 W OKC 25 E CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W 3B1 25 N BAF 25 SW POU 15 NW AVP 15 ENE ELM 15 W SYR 25 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP 35 WSW CLL 40 ESE PRX 25 E DUA 20 SE MWL 25 SSE JCT 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 35 SSW HOB 20 ESE TCC 50 S RTN 40 NNE INW 35 NE LAS 45 W DRA 60 NNW NID 30 SE FAT 30 NNW FAT 45 NE SCK 30 WSW RNO 15 NE RNO 50 E U31 40 SSW DPG 45 SE SLC 20 E EVW 45 N EVW 55 E SUN 55 ESE S80 30 WNW S06 45 NE 63S ...CONT... 55 N OLF 15 S SDY 40 NE Y22 40 NNE ABR 55 SW DLH 20 SSW IMT TVC 30 NNE MBS 40 NNE MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...OH VALLEY... SEVERAL BOW ECHOES ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO ATTM. THIS CLUSTER IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CREATING STRONG DEEP SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN IL REACHING SRN IND LATE THIS MORNING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER BOW ECHOES GIVEN STORM MOTIONS TO THE EAST AT 40 TO 50 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LINEAR MCS WILL REGENERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE UNEVEN TERRAIN AND LESSENING INSTABILITY SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACROSS EITHER ERN KS OR WRN MO. ALTHOUGH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...40 TO 45 KT AT 500 MB WILL CREATE STRONG ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EWD TODAY CAUSING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL AID THE INITIATION OF HIGH-BASED STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT...MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NW KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST. THE ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO DRIVING AN MCS ACROSS WRN KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WRN KS THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BECOME MORE SFC-BASED IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS WCNTRL KS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS CONSIDERING THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS THE MCS MATURES THIS EVENING...MOVING SSEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO NRN OK AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...NORTHEAST STATES... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE EWD TODAY SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NY AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL AID STORM INITIATION ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD SETUP ACROSS ERN NY WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND THIS WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FAIRLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 16:24:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 11:24:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407051624.i65GOk108580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051622 SWODY1 SPC AC 051620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CDS 30 NW CDS 60 NE AMA 25 WSW GCK 30 WNW GLD 30 W SNY 20 ENE BFF 45 ENE AIA 55 SSE 9V9 30 WSW SPW 25 W DBQ 30 WNW FWA 20 W ZZV 35 NNW CRW 35 SSW CRW 30 SW 5I3 15 S BWG 30 ESE UNO 35 NNW FYV 30 W OKC 25 E CDS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W 3B1 25 N BAF 25 SW POU 30 E AVP 15 NW BGM 10 WNW SYR 25 WSW MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM 30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT 55 NNE SAC 35 S SVE 15 NNW RNO 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 55 WSW DPG 35 N PUC 15 NE VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS 25 NNW GGG 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO 25 ENE MLC 15 E ADM 25 NNW BWD 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL U.S. INTO OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR NERN U.S.... ....MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... TROUGH THAT EJECTED FROM SRN ROCKIES SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE CLOSED SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM SERN NEB INTO IA. REMNANT MCS FROM AN ACTIVE SEVERE NIGHT ACROSS PLAINS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN IL. THE MDT WLY FLOW S OF LOW CENTER HAS SPREAD AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM EWD INTO WRN OH VALLEY. COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS AOA 70F...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG COMMON ACROSS MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. 12Z ETA/ETAKF MODEL SOUNDINGS BOTH INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER IA AND SE INTO IL. THIS IS CONDITIONAL ...DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY THE AIR MASS THIS AREA CAN RECOVER FROM CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY. WITH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND 25-30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E AND SE OF LOW CENTER MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL. ONGOING MCS SRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY ACROSS OH VALLEY AS STRONG HEATING ENHANCES CURRENTLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO. ...CENTRL AND SRN PLAINS... COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH MOST IMPORTANT UPPER FEATURE THE S/WV TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN RAPIDITY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CAP IS A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY...THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON IN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY AND E OF N/S DRY LINE WRN KS TO SWRN TX. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK COUPLED WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY ENHANCE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE 12Z ETA THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR AN MCS DROPPING SEWD TONIGHT ACROSS WRN KS INTO NRN OK AS S/WV TROUGH/MID LEVEL WIND MAX ENTERS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN NE/NERN CO WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY SEWD INTO A 20-30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN NEXT OUTLOOK IF THIS SCENARIO APPEARS LIKELY. ...NERN U.S... THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD LE/LO WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RATHER WARM LAPSE RATES...LESS THAN 6C/KM...AND ABOUT 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A LOW END WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:32:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:32:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407052033.i65KX7126336@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 052023 SWODY1 SPC AC 052020 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE LTS 10 WSW CDS LBL LAA 40 E FCL BFF 35 NW BBW OFK 30 W RST LSE CGX 20 W CMH 15 SSE EKN 25 SSE PHL 10 ENE ORF 10 S SPA 15 SW CHA 20 NNE MSL 30 WSW BWG TUL 25 SSE LTS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML ORH 25 WNW GON 25 S POU 25 ENE AVP 40 ENE BGM 30 E MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM 30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT RBL MHS SVE 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 DPG 30 S EVW 40 N VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS TYR 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO MLC SPS ABI 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN APPALACHIANS AND VA/MD TIDEWATER... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN NY...NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CONUS EXCEPT GULF COAST AND SWRN STATES. PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA AREA -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 06/12Z. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER SERN MT/NERN WY SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH -- CURRENTLY EVIDENT OVER ERN GREAT LAKES...SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR NEW ENGLAND COAST BY END OF PERIOD. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED LOW OVER S-CENTRAL IA...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD DBQ-MSN AREA BY 06/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS SWRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO BECOMING STATIONARY OVER ERN KS/NEB BORDER AREA...THEN WNWWD ACROSS MCK/IML REGION INTO ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE OVER SRN NEB PANHANDLE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS HIGH PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT...AND SEWD ACROSS MOST OF IA AND NRN MO. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM WRN NEB LOW SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN CO AND TX/NM BORDER REGION. ALSO...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM ONGOING KY MCS WSWWD ACROSS MO OZARKS TO SERN KS. NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCS FROM MCS NWWD OVER N-CENTRAL IL THEN WWD ACROSS SRN IA...BECOMING DIFFUSE WWD TOWARD COLD FRONT. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... TSTMS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CYS RIDGE...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS CO/NEB. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS. REF SPC WW 563 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. THIS ACTIVITY IS REASONABLY PROGGED BY ETA MODEL TO EVOLVE INTO MCS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING NRN OK BY END OF PERIOD. DAMAGING WIND IS MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT...WITH SPORADIC HAIL ALSO ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED/CONCENTRATED WIND PROBABILITIES IS DRAWN. ...OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TIDEWATER... REF SPC WWS 562/564 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST SITUATION OVER KY/INDIANA/TN...ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND. MOIST AND DIABATICALLY HEATED INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS FAR E AS MOUNTAINS OF ERN KY...SRN WV AND ERN TN. SRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD SOMEWHAT...INTO HIGHER THETAE OF ERN TN...RESULTING IN NET SEWD TURN. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EXTENDS EWD TOWARD VA/MD TIDEWATER REGION AMIDST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...OZARKS REGION... INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION -- MOVING THROUGH LAYER OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO -- HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION... SFC BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SGF RAOB SUGGESTS CAPE NEARLY GONE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S...AS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS YIELDS VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. SGF HODOGRAPH...AVAILABLE VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-40 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...AND AROUND 150 J/KG SRH...WITH SLIGHT VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ENHANCED LOCALLY ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NEAR WHICH OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MAXIMIZED. ...IA AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY... ARC OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE OF MIDLEVEL VORTEX...MAINLY FROM IA AND EXTREME NRN MO EWD TO NWRN IL AND SERN WI. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND THREAT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED CLEARING THIS REGION...BEHIND EARLY MCS AND ON BOTH SIDES OF OLD OUTFLOW POOL. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL YIELD FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW -- E THROUGH NE OF SFC LOW...AMIDST STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING REDUCES SBCAPE. ...NERN CONUS... MARGINAL SLGT RISK AREA WITH PRINCIPAL THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND...AND AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A TORNADO OR TWO. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...IN VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW -- WITH GREATEST SLY COMPONENT -- WILL REMAIN E OF HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH IN 150-200 J/KG RANGE IS POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH REMAINDER DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID-UPPER 60S F...LOW LCL AND WEAK CAPPING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT -- ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC IN MOST AREAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DROP MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET AS MAIN CONVECTIVE FORCING REGIME MOVES INTO MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS AND AS SFC COOLING STABILIZES MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY FROM COAST. ..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:01:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:01:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407060102.i6612H109292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060059 SWODY1 SPC AC 060057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE END 20 WNW DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSW MCK 20 SW EAR 30 SW BIE 40 SSE TOP 25 NW JLN 25 E BVO 25 SSE PNC 15 SSE END. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MMO 35 S MTO 20 SW HOP 25 E MKL 30 SW JBR 35 NW FSM 20 NNE FSI 20 SW LTS 25 NNE PVW 20 SE EHA 20 W LAA 15 NNW LHX 45 E LIC 30 WSW LBF 30 W VTN 40 NNE VTN 25 S MHE 10 SE SUX 50 ENE OMA 25 W DSM 45 NNE DSM 15 SW MCW 15 SSW RST 50 W LNR 15 SSE RFD 45 SE MMO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 25 ENE CNM 30 S TCC 35 ESE LVS 25 NW SAF 45 SSE FMN 70 S 4BL 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT RBL MHS SVE 30 SSE NFL 10 E U31 DPG 30 S EVW 40 N VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 10 NW TVC 30 NNE MBS 20 ENE MTC ...CONT... 25 S CRP 40 SSE AUS TYR 25 NNW ELD HOT 35 ENE PGO MLC SPS ABI 55 SSW SJT 40 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SCNTRL NEB...MUCH OF KS AND EXTREME NCNTRL/NERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VLY... ...CNTRL PLAINS... SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS /75 MPH/ BEING REPORTED NEAR GOODLAND AROUND 0020 UTC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS/ MESOANALYSIS DEPICT STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS KS AND NRN OK. GIVEN GLANCING AFFECT OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE ORGANIZED MCS IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN TO TURN SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DCAPE VALUES ARE GREATER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF UPPER SUPPORT...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS MAY OCCUR IN A WIDE SWATH ACROSS KS. SWD EXTENT OF MDT RISK IS UNCERTAIN. 18 UTC ETA SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WILL DIVE SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK. SINCE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE MORE EWD THROUGH NEB AND IA...FEEL THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WILL PLAN TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND THROUGH KS AND NRN OK. AS THE CASE THE PAST THREE NIGHTS...EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISKS ARE LIKELY TO END UP A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FARTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. WILL PLAN FOR THE MCS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO BY 12 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED RECENTLY JUST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS THE AFFECT STRONG IA MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL HAVE ON THE REGION. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE KEEPING LOWER INSTABILITY NEAR THE MO RVR...BUT NLY TO NWLY FLOW INTO THE 1007 SURFACE LOW VCNTY NERN IA IS CAUSING A DEGREE OF SURFACE DIVERGENCE. PRIND THAT THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A SMALLER MCS AND MOVE SSEWD INTO SERN NEB AND NERN KS. ...UPPER MS VLY... ARC OF TSTMS PERSIST ALONG SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW VCNTY NERN IA. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN IL AND SWRN WI. STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL IL AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...NERN STATES... TSTM LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM ERN NY JUST AHEAD OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH. THESE TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST EXPECTED. ...WRN CAROLINAS... IT APPEARS THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. IT MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH MID EVENING WITH POTENTIAL ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 05:50:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 00:50:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407060551.i665pA129346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060548 SWODY1 SPC AC 060547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 40 N LBE 40 NNW SSU 25 SE TYS 25 W GAD 35 SW JAN ESF 50 ESE BWD 50 SE MAF 25 SW HOB 35 SSE LVS 40 SW COS 20 S FCL 35 W AKO 40 SSE LIC 40 SE LAA 45 NNE GAG 50 S OJC 20 ESE UIN CGX 40 NE MKG 15 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MRF 30 ESE GDP 15 SW ROW 25 W 4CR 45 SSE GNT 20 SSW GUP 75 N INW 45 NNW GCN 50 NE LAS 30 WNW LAS 70 W DRA 35 NW NID 45 N BFL 10 ESE FAT 50 SSE RBL 40 ESE RBL 35 NNW RNO 10 WNW NFL 10 E U31 55 WSW DPG 35 N PUC 15 NE VEL 55 ESE RKS 40 WSW RWL 25 SE BPI 15 ENE IDA 27U 80 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N GGW 20 SW SDY 15 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 35 N AXN 60 NNE MSP 35 SE RHI 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ART 20 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VLY... SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH KS IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED FROM SWRN MO INTO CNTRL OK BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND COULD BE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD THROUGH AR...SRN MO AND PERHAPS EXTREME NERN TX BEFORE SLOWING DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL HEAT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TSTMS DURING THE DAY... HOWEVER...AND TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY OUTFLOWS. THIS MAY SUSTAIN A HIGH WIND AND HAIL THREAT SEWD INTO THE MS DELTA AND NRN LA AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ARC NWWD ACROSS N TX INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH EXACT POSITION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. INCREASINGLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE WELL WWD INTO NM AND SERN CO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO N TX AS WELL. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY ELY FLOW BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER PLAINS. OTHERWISE...A POTENTIAL MCS OR TWO MAY EVOLVE AND ROLL SEWD INTO PARTS OF N TX TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...MID MS VLY TO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY REGION... AS SECONDARY IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VLY. MAIN CONFLUENCE ZONE SHOULD SHIFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...LIKELY SITUATED FROM SERN MO NEWD INTO IND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AIR MASS ALONG/SE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THIS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN INCREASINGLY WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TSTM CLUSTER TO FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD THE LENGTH OF THE OH VLY INTO PERHAPS ERN OH/KY AREA OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. A MDT RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE OH VLY IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ...GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE UPPER OH VLY... AN ARC OF TSTMS NOW CROSSING THE CHICAGO AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO LOWER MI AND THE UPPER OH VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF CLEARING IN WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS... BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS...OR INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING TSTMS. GIVEN MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. IN FACT...ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOPS VCNTY RETREATING WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE UPPER OH VLY NWWD TO ONTARIO. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 13:07:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 08:07:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407061308.i66D88100848@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061305 SWODY1 SPC AC 061303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 35 WSW LUL 15 E BPT 45 SSE CLL 45 E JCT 60 SSE MAF 20 N INK 60 NNE ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 30 ENE COS 40 NNE LHX 45 SSE LAA 35 NNE CSM 35 SSW TUL 15 W VIH 35 NE PIA 15 E MKG 40 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW MRF 15 N GDP 45 NNE ALM 70 N INW 50 NE LAS 70 W DRA 50 NNW NID 50 N BFL 30 N MER 45 SSE RBL 50 WSW SVE 35 SE SVE 15 NW NFL 10 ENE U31 45 NNW PUC 45 WNW BFF 60 WNW CDR 20 S 81V 40 ENE SHR 40 W MQM 25 SE GEG 30 W GEG 30 E SEA 25 N SEA 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 N OLF 20 SW SDY 30 ENE DIK 35 N AXN 50 NNW EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY... ...E TX/ARKLATEX... A LINEAR MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX THIS MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS WARM THIS MORNING AND INSTABILITY INCREASES...SOME REGENERATION WITH THE LINE MAY OCCUR. A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE LINE POSSIBLY REACHING EAST TX. ...W TX/NCNTRL TX... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS NW TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY STALL OUT. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F MAINLY SW OF THIS BOUNDARY. TWO AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST APPEARS TO BE IN THE MTNS OF NE NM AND THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS NE NM... POSSIBLY REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...TRACKING SEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NW TX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS WCNTRL TX. ...OH AND TN VALLEYS... A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NE MO AND WRN IL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT TRACKS ENEWD TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...A HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE CLUSTER AS IT MOVES ACROSS IND INTO ERN OH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NRN END OF THE CLUSTER MAY ALSO AFFECT SRN LOWER MI WITH A WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN MO EXTENDING NEWD TO AROUND ST. LOUIS. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TODAY ALONG THE AXIS...NEW STORMS MAY INITIATE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 KT AND THIS WILL FAVOR A SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT. CONSIDERING THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...A COLD POOL MAY ORGANIZE WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPANDING SEWD ACROSS KY AND TN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 16:18:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 11:18:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407061619.i66GJ6120799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061613 SWODY1 SPC AC 061611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HUF 15 NNE DNV SBN 20 NW AZO 20 SE GRR 15 W LAN 30 ESE LAN DTW 35 NE FDY 35 SW CMH 30 NE LEX 25 SW LEX 40 N BWG 20 SSW OWB 25 WNW EVV 25 SW HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 10 ENE MEI 40 ENE LFK 20 NW CLL 45 NW AUS 40 SE MAF 20 N INK 60 NNE ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 35 SSW LIC 40 NNE LHX 45 SSE LAA 35 NNE CSM 35 SSW TUL 15 W VIH 35 NE PIA 15 E MKG 40 ESE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 30 NNW ALM 10 SW SOW 35 NW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL 30 SW SVE 40 ESE SVE 10 NW NFL 15 E U31 30 N U24 30 SW CAG 50 SE DGW AIA 25 W LBF 25 WNW HLC 50 ENE DDC 10 NW ICT 15 NE EMP 30 N FNB 20 E OMA 30 NNW SUX 15 NW FSD 40 E ATY 10 SSE STC 65 NNE EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW ISN 20 WNW MLS 30 ESE COD 30 W MQM 20 E S80 40 WNW GEG 15 ESE 4OM 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS WWD ACROSS MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS MID-SUMMER TROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY MOVING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT WITH BAND OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF TROUGH ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN WI THIS AM WILL MOVE INTO LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT MCS IN PLAINS HAS ABOUT DISSIPATED AS IT CROSSED MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED STRONG HEATING ACROSS OH VALLEY MUCH OF AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS TO LOW 70S RESULTING IN MUCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR INITIALLY VICINITY LWR OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS IS LOCATED. REF MCD 1542. DURING THE AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP NRN OH VALLEY INTO LWR MI AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WIND MAX. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH DEVELOPING BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALSO FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING BRIEF TORNADOS AND ENHANCED WIND AND HAIL THREAT. MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS INDIANA/SRN LWR MI INTO WRN OH WHERE INFLUENCE OF TROUGH WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ...SRN PLAINS... OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS INTO N TX WWD TO ERN NM WITH COLD FRONT STILL DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN KS WWD TO ROCKIES. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON IN PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY STALLS AND FLOW TURNS MORE UPSLOPE INTO ERN NM. WITH FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MUCAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN NM/SERN CO AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE PANHANDLE WHERE THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. LOCAL HAIL MODEL INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. EVEN WITH EXPECTED HIGH BASES...ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS WELL AS DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...LWR MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY... SHEAR IS WEAKER THIS AREA BUT WITH THE STRONG HEATING AND HIGH INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON...MORE PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. A WEAK MVC OVER WRN AL ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT MCS NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS AR INTO N TX COULD FOCUS MORE LOCALLY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..HALES/GUYER.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:17:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:17:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407062018.i66KI3129524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062013 SWODY1 SPC AC 062011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SLO 15 NNE DNV SBN 20 NW AZO GRR 30 WSW MBS FNT DTW FDY 35 SE DAY 30 NE LEX 25 SW LEX 40 N BWG 20 SSW OWB 30 ENE MDH 30 NNW SLO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 15 NE PIT 45 WNW EKN 40 NW TRI 25 SW TYS 10 ENE MEI JAN 40 N POE TPL SJT HOB ROW 30 W RTN 30 SW COS 35 SSW LIC LAA CSM 40 W MKO HRO VIH PIA 10 SE MBL 25 NNE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP VCT SAT DRT ...CONT... 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 30 NNW ALM 10 SW SOW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL SVE 10 NW NFL U31 U24 CAG 50 SE DGW BFF 45 NE LAA 40 S DDC ICT OJC P35 ALO MKT 10 SSE STC 65 NNE EAU 30 S ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 20 NNE ART 15 ENE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW ISN 20 WNW MLS 30 ESE COD 30 W MQM 20 E S80 40 WNW GEG 15 ESE 4OM 40 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...INDIANA...ERN IL...NRN KY...WRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM OH/MI SWWD TO ARKLATEX THEN WWD TO SRN ROCKIES... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS CONUS. CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY REGION -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS MID MS VALLEY. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/REINFORCED SRN STREAM TROUGH -- INDICATED FROM OZARK REGION SWWD ACROSS ARKLATEX -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD TO MID TN...NRN MS AND NRN LA BY 07/12Z. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL VORTICITY ELEMENT -- PROBABLY STRONGEST IN MIDLEVELS -- MOVING NEWD FROM NERN MO ACROSS EXTREME SERN IA. BEING MESOBETA SCALE...THIS FEATURE IS POORLY RESOLVED BY MODELS BUT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS LM AND INTO WRN LOWER MI TONIGHT. AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER NRN LM IS FARTHER W THAN 12Z ETA/AVN AND CLOSER TO NGM PROGS. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN-MOST LOWER MI THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS WARM FRONT NOW OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI APCHS LH. SFC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS IA/MO/OK...STALLING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS DRAWN FROM SERN OK/SWRN AR SWWD ACROSS DFW AREA THEN WNWWD PAST LBB INTO E-CENTRAL NM...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. ...OH VALLEY...CENTRAL/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST CONCENTRATION/MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE STILL APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI...WHERE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF REMAINS OF MORNING MCS. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT ALSO IS RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO ATTM IS FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM NRN/CENTRAL IL TOWARD WRN INDIANA AND SWRN LOWER MI...THEN SPREAD/MOVE EWD AND NEWD ACROSS REMAINDER IL/ INDIANA/LOWER MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO OH. STRONGEST FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN N OF OH RIVER. BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW -- SAMPLED ATTM BY REGIONAL VWP DATA AND PROGGED BY MODELS -- SHOULD SPREAD OVER MUCH OF MOIST SECTOR THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COUNTERACT SFC WLY COMPONENT IN ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EXISTS OVER PORTIONS LOWER MI -- PARTICULARLY INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE SFC WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN MOST STRONGLY BACKED. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH NEARLY 100 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH POSSIBLE AND 200-300 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER. ...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN/MS... REF SPC WWS 578/579 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM FORECAST INFORMATION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER WEAK CAP AND LARGE NUMBER OF TSTMS SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL EVENTS. ...SRN PLAINS TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... 18Z AMA RAOB SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINING IN PLACE...AND CAPPING MAY CONSIDERABLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE E OF MOUNTAINS ACROSS SRN PLAINS FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FORMING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND MOVES SEWD INVOF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR OK MCS. CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR SFC FRONT...ENHANCING UPSLOPE LIFT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 150-250 J/KG SRH POSSIBLE FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAKNESS OF AMBIENT FLOW FIELDS ALOFT. MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER E-CENTRAL NM TO AROUND 3000 J/KG PORTIONS NW TX. ..EDWARDS.. 07/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:03:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:03:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407070103.i6713q103524@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070100 SWODY1 SPC AC 070058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW JHW 40 SW MGW 15 NE TRI 15 WSW HSS GAD 45 NW GWO 40 N POF 10 S CGX 30 NW MBS 80 E OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MAF 20 NE CNM 20 WNW ROW 40 SSW LVS 40 E LVS 10 NNE CVS 35 W CDS 20 NE FSI 25 W ADM MWL BWD 30 N SJT 35 NW MAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 15 NNW GDP 20 WNW ALM 10 SW SOW GCN 70 W DRA 40 NNW NID 50 NNE BFL 35 N MER 45 SSE RBL SVE 10 NW NFL U31 U24 45 NNW ALS 40 W COS 25 SSW LIC 55 N CAO 30 NW CSM 25 ENE TUL 45 NNE JLN 25 SSE IRK 20 NW DBQ 20 S RST 25 NNW RST 45 NNW GRB 45 ESE ESC 105 ENE APN ...CONT... 15 WSW BUF 50 WNW MRB 35 SSE PSK 20 E SPA AGS SSI ...CONT... 40 SSE GPT 45 WNW ESF 20 E JCT 45 ESE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS/TN VLYS NWD TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES... ...UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MS/TN VLYS... SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN FOCUSING TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MS/TN/OH VLYS. SOLID LINE OF TSTMS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN TN AND NERN AL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE. UNTIL THEN...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN KY/SRN WV AND ERN TN. FARTHER NORTH...MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW VCNTY CHICAGO WITH CONFLUENT AXIS SWD INTO NWRN IND AND ERN IL. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZED TODAY...BUT 00 UTC DETROIT SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED MLCAPE VALUES OF 756 J/KG. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH SPREAD EWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT A SUPERCELL...BUT THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING WINDS... ESPECIALLY AS THE WIND PROFILES INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLD TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINLY SHIFTED INTO ONTARIO. ...AR WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... IT APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS DOMINATED THE PORTION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AR INTO OK THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSTMS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP AND THE 00 UTC NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CAP AND 3500 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL/NWRN TX...ANY ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THOSE LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT ENEWD INTO EXTREME SWRN OK IN CASE TSTMS DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. EVEN IF THEY DO...SEVERE THREATS MAY BE LIMITED GIVEN WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...A MCS IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN NM INTO AREAS VCNTY MIDLAND NWD. MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH TIME AND GIVEN THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY/INFLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL RESIDE ACROSS WCNTRL TX...TSTMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WIND. FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN SERN NM. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ..RACY.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 05:44:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 00:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407070545.i675j2123815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070542 SWODY1 SPC AC 070540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW OFK 30 N OMA 10 ESE JEF 30 NW UNO 15 ESE HRO 25 NNE MKO 45 ENE DDC 45 SW EAR 40 WNW BBW 30 ESE ANW 20 NNW OFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MSS 30 ENE BGM 30 E CXY SSU BKW HTS ZZV 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 15 SSW BIS 45 NNE PHP 20 NNW RAP 45 S GCC 30 ESE SHR 30 SSE BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 NW 3HT 65 E HVR 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 20 ESE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 50 SSE BYI 35 W IDA 50 NE S80 40 N EPH 40 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 40 NNE VTN 35 E SUX 10 E CGI 40 NE EVV 15 S LAF 30 WNW MMO 20 NNE MSN 25 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW NOW OVER MN WILL ANCHOR OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND. TO THE WEST...POWERFUL UPPER WAVE VCNTY BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH ASSOCIATED 100 KT H25 JET WILL TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SRN/ERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION AND STALLING ACROSS THE OZARKS. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WRN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS MT...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT AT LEAST MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS INTO NERN WY AND SCNTRL-ERN MT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...MAGNITUDE OF HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FIRST...THEN EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. SLY LLJ WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND SUPPORT ONE OR TWO TSTM CLUSTERS INTO PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ...CNTRL PLAINS... WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIKELY SITUATED FROM SRN NEB ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AS WELL AND THE CAP SHOULD EXPAND EWD WITH TIME. SEVERAL SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WARM SECTOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL/ERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MORE ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS THE SLY LLJ INCREASES NORMAL TO THE FRONT. VERTICAL/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER TSTMS. IF MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS FORM THAN EXPECTED...A FEW TSTMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. FUTURE OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER DEFINE THE SURFACE BASED POSSIBILITIES. ...UPPER OH VLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREATS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON INFLUENCES OF CURRENT TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP...STRONGER POSSIBILITIES WILL EXIST FOR TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY TEND TO BOW IN THE WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME. OTHERWISE...POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP THE SEVERE THREATS MINIMAL. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. ...CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION... BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ERN VA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN OH VLY TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS AS LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT INVERTED-V STRUCTURES. IF THE COVERAGE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE GREATER...FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PARTS OF THE REGION TO A SLGT RISK. ...ERN NM... TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS GIVEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...THE STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGER TSTMS...DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NOT VENTURE TOO FAR EWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ..RACY/BANACOS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 12:52:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 07:52:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407071253.i67Crg122914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071250 SWODY1 SPC AC 071249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW FYV 35 WNW BVO 35 WSW SLN 50 SSW EAR 20 SSW BBW 20 NW BUB 40 WNW OFK 10 E OMA 45 NE SZL 30 SW JEF 20 SE SGF 40 NNW FYV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 35 WNW ALB 20 WSW ABE 30 N CHO 15 ENE BKW 20 NE HTS 25 NNW ZZV 40 NNE CLE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 40 NE COD 35 NW BIL 60 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 20 ESE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 50 SSE BYI 35 W IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 35 ENE SUX 25 NNW IRK 40 NW CGI 15 ENE CGI 40 NE EVV 15 S LAF 30 WNW MMO 20 NNE MSN 25 NNW APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE SWRN MTNS OF MT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE LOW-ELEVATIONS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT. TEMPS IN THE 80S F SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. THE GGW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BY 21Z TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OF 60 KT PUNCHES EWD INTO MT. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND LCLS ABOVE 700 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ...CNTRL PLAINS/WRN OZARKS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TODAY AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM WRN NEB EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN KS BY 00Z. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING...STRONG LIFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE...DEVELOPING INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AFTER DARK. MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NW AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS NEB AND NE KS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIALLY STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE SFC-BASED AS THEY MOVE SEWD AND INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIKELY EARLY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS AN MCS GETS GOING AFTER DARK. THE TRACK OF THE MCS WILL LIKELY PARALLEL THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TAKING IT ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO AROUND MIDNIGHT. ...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...STRONG LIFT FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED STORMS TO INITIATE BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH AND WV. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO PA AND NY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT ILN SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...ERN NM/W TX... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS SE NM WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. TEMPS AROUND 100 F THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS SE NM AND W TX. AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY...THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 20 KT SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. ...NC/VA... SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CAROLINAS. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STORM INITIATION APPEARS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KT. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...THE INSTABILITY WOULD HELP STRONG UPDRAFT FORMATION AND A BRIEF MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 16:47:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 11:47:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407071647.i67Glq104944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071645 SWODY1 SPC AC 071644 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 30 N COD 20 WSW 3HT 35 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW JLN 40 NNE ICT 35 S HLC 25 SSE MCK 15 E LBF 45 S ANW 40 WNW OFK 10 E OMA 45 NE SZL 30 SW JEF 20 ESE SGF 25 SW JLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG 35 WNW ALB 25 NW ABE 25 WNW SBY ECG 30 NNE EWN 25 SSE RDU 25 E GSO 20 WSW LYH 20 N SSU 25 E CRW 20 S UNI 25 NW ZZV 15 NNW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON ...CONT... 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 45 W FOD 35 SSE OTM 40 NW CGI 15 ENE CGI 20 SSE BMG 25 N IND 30 S CGX 15 NE MKE 15 SE APN ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 35 SSE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 45 S BYI 60 WNW IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN MO/ERN KS/ERN NEB.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD ACROSS PA/NY.... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN WA/SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT AND SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA BASED ON A RELATIVE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT...WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN A BAND ALONG THE PRIMARY SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL MT...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND SUPERCELLS WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC TO NY/PA... A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER THE LAKE MI VICINITY...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EJECTING NEWD...THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF WHICH IS NOW MOVING OVER SE OH. MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL NY/PA IS CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR MOIST NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...BOTH OF WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM NRN WV TO WRN PA WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OH/WRN PA IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING VORT MAX OVER SE OH...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT FARTHER W FROM SE LOWER MI TO WRN OH. 30-45 KT LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER E AND S...RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ FROM SE PA SWD ACROSS ERN VA TO NC WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 30-40 KT FLOW AROUND 700 MB ACROSS THIS AREA...AND CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAK LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH THIS CONVECTION IS BASED ABOVE 700 MB AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA/DESTABILIZATION. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG...BASED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ACROSS ERN NEB/ERN KS AND WRN MO OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS OK HAVE NOW MOVED EWD INTO AR. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL APPEARS LIMITED. HOWEVER...WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /SBCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG/...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WITH WET MICROBURSTS. ...SE GA SWD TO CENTRAL FL... STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING FROM SE GA SWD INTO CENTRAL FL WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 90 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TBW AND JAX SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH 7 C/KM LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -9 C. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEAK OUTFLOWS WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OVER THE FL W COAST...AND WITHIN A CUMULUS CONGESTUS AREA ACROSS SE GA. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 20:11:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 15:11:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407072011.i67KBx104223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 072007 SWODY1 SPC AC 072005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 10 SW BIS 65 SSE Y22 35 ESE 81V 40 S SHR 30 N COD 20 WSW 3HT 35 N HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM UMN 40 NW P28 30 W LBF MHN 35 ENE BUB 50 N SZL 30 SW JEF 15 ESE SGF UMN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PBG ALB TTN 25 WNW SBY ECG 30 NNE EWN 25 SSE RDU 40 NNW GSO EKN PIT ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 25 S GON ...CONT... 80 NW DVL 40 NE MBG 15 E PIR 45 SSW MHE 45 W FOD 35 SSE OTM 40 NW CGI 10 SSW PAH 20 S OWB 40 SSE MIE 40 NNW FWA 30 NE MKG 15 SE APN ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 65 ENE SOW 35 SSE U17 10 WNW MLF 75 WNW P38 55 ESE BIH 35 NE EDW 30 WNW PMD 20 ESE SAC 55 WNW TVL 45 S BYI 60 WNW IDA 40 NNE S80 45 ENE EPH 45 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID ATLANTIC AND PIEDMONT REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA...FEATURING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER GREAT LAKES AND OVER BC. ERN TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY CYCLONE WHOSE CENTER WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS LS AND NRN LH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER JET MAX WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO WRN PORTION MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 08/12Z. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY FROM LH ACROSS SERN INDIANA TO SRN MO -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND LE...WHILE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY FROM WRN KY ACROSS SRN MO. WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NERN KS...NWRN MO...AND NEB AS WARM FRONT...EXCEPT WHERE ALTERED ON MESOBETA SCALE BY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION IN AND NEAR WW 587. FRONT CONTINUES AS WAVY/STATIONARY BOUNDARY NWWD THROUGH BLACK HILLS REGION INTO ERN MT...TO CYCLONE OVE SWRN SASK. COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED SWWD FRM SASK LOW OVER W-CENTRAL MT...AND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. SASK CYCLONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP/PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW OVER SRN BC THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS WA/ID/NWRN MT...THROUGH TONIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION... FROM NC TO ERN PA REF SPC WW 586 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE FARTHER EWD TOWARD TIDEWATER AND ATLANTIC COAST...MOVING INTO VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. FARTHER N CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AMIDST WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...BTU ALSO WEAK CAPPING. 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER PORTIONS NY AND CENTRAL PA SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY... INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE MODE -- ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN NEB -- IS EVOLVING INTO SFC-BASED SEVERE THREAT FROM THERE INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN KS. THIS IN TURN COULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS...LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAILSTONES...AND DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. REF SPC WW 587 AND ATTENDANT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN TWO MODES... 1. SFC BASED SUPERCELL/BOW MODES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INVOF WARM FRONT NWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NEB...AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. 2. NOCTURNAL/ELEVATED COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AND PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LEADING EDGE OF PLUME OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MT...CORRESPONDING CLOSELY WITH SFC FRONTAL LOCATION AND WITH A RAPIDLY ENLARGING SWATH OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. POCKETS OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SFC MOISTURE ARE ANALYZED ACROSS ERN MT AMIDST CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING. EXPECT SHEAR PROFILES TO INCREASE AS UPPER LOW APCHS...BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND CONVECTIVE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST...35-45 KT LLJ ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL/ERN TX... REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 FOR NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL IN LOWER MS VALLEY AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS...MINOR DAMAGE AND MARGINAL HAIL ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION SWWD OVER MS BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX -- APPARENT MVC -- MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TSTMS FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL...N-CENTRAL AND ERN TX...IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY NOW PRESENT OVER DFW AREA. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...SRN GA AND PENINSULAR FL... SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS VARIOUS OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO INTERSECT ACROSS HIS REGION...LOCALLY MAXIMIZING CONVERGENCE/LIFT. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET WITH UPPER 80S/90S F SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN 70S CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 00Z WHEN COMBINATION OF EXPANDING/MERGED OUTFLOWS AND WEAKENING INSOLATION RESULT IN STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 01:08:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 20:08:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407080109.i68195119363@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080106 SWODY1 SPC AC 080104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N MOT BIS 35 ENE MBG 35 N 9V9 PHP RAP 20 E 4BQ MLS 50 SW GGW 30 SSW HVR 65 ENE CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW OMA LWD 35 WSW UIN 45 ENE JEF 10 SE VIH 30 NE SGF EMP HUT 45 NNW P28 55 SSW HLC 10 NNW MCK LBF ANW OFK 15 WNW OMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML CON 25 S EWB ...CONT... 75 NW DVL JMS FRM CID ALN 10 SSE MDH 20 SE PAH 20 SE SDF HTS ROA LYH CHO MRB ZZV MFD 30 NE CLE ...CONT... 50 SSW TUS SAD TCS SAF 4SL FMN U17 U24 ELY 40 ENE TPH DRA 30 ENE NID 50 NNW NID 45 SSW BIH 60 W RNO SVE 55 NNE SVE OWY BYI BZN HLN 3DU S06 65 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI.... CLOSED LOWS/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT. LEAD SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 08/12Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUED LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF FRONT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...ONGOING CLUSTER MAY DIMINISH...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 08/06Z...GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 08/12Z. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ONE OR MORE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ALREADY SUPPORTING EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT...STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TO VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY FORM ABOVE RADIATIONAL/FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT UPPER JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO PERSIST AS SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING CLUSTER. **FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 06:05:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 01:05:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407080605.i6865t114998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080603 SWODY1 SPC AC 080601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML CON BDL JFK WAL 55 SSW RIC CHO AOO ELM UCA 10 WNW MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL FAR RWF DSM IRK JLN ICT 10 NW HUT LBF AIA DGW 10 NE 4BQ ISN 60 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GDP 50 ESE ALM 50 E LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 25 WSW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 45 N EVW 20 ENE COD 20 SW MLS 75 NW ISN ...CONT... 45 ESE INL 15 WNW EAU 40 E DBQ 30 N IND 20 NW HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 W BLH 70 WSW PRC 30 SE SOW 35 ENE SAD 70 E DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION TODAY. UPSTREAM...BROADER-SCALE LOW WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES VICINITY. PRIMARY MID/UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL PLAY ROLE IN MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 08/12Z ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEAR/NORTHEAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...AND STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY MID DAY... WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL OCCUR IN GRADIENT BETWEEN THERMAL LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F IN UPSLOPE REGIME...SURFACE HEATING IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...AS 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AIDS PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING... TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/INTENSE AS IT SPREADS INTO UPSLOPE REGIME. VEERING PROFILES FROM EASTERLY AT THE SURFACE TO MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/EASTERN KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT CONVECTIVE THREAT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL WARMING SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS KANSAS...BUT HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WEAKENING FRONT. ETA SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SPREADING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY MAY CONTINUE ON SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ...NORTHEAST STATES... GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN VIRGINIA/DELMARVA REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK... 30 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREADS TOWARD NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ..KERR.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 12:59:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 07:59:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407081259.i68Cxj112170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081257 SWODY1 SPC AC 081255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HLC 35 N IML 25 NE AIA 55 SSW PHP 20 ESE PHP 25 W 9V9 60 W YKN 15 S OFK 40 WSW LNK 45 S HSI 40 NNE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 10 NE EWR 15 N WAL 50 WSW ORF 50 SW RIC CHO 20 S AOO SYR 15 W MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK 40 WSW FAR 20 SE ATY 35 W FOD 15 NNE LWD 15 NNW TBN 30 ENE HRO FYV 10 SW TUL 20 NW PNC 40 NE GCK 25 NE AKO 30 NE DGW 20 N 4BQ 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF 10 SW ROW 50 E LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 25 WSW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 65 NNW BIH 45 N EVW 25 E COD 55 W MLS 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 30 N IND 20 NW HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH 30 SSW PRC 30 SW SOW 35 ENE SAD 70 E DUG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...NRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...NEW ENGLAND STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND SRN SD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL TURN SLY ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT NEAR 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS INTO CNTRL NEB BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS OVER WCNTRL NEB EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY WILL SHIFT EWD ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN NEB. AS A RESULT...STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB BETWEEN THE MOIST AXIS TO THE EAST AND THERMAL AXIS TO THE WEST. THE ETA AND GFS AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION...FORECASTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE STORM INITIATION. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SRN SD AND NRN NEB. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS ERN ID AND WRN WY WILL PUNCH EWD INTO NRN NEB...RAPIDLY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GRAND ISLAND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF ABOUT 280 M2/S2. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...RAPID INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...DEVELOPING QUICKLY IN SRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NEB DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SRH VALUES OF 150 TO 300 M2/S2 SUGGEST STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW IN THE NEB SANDHILLS AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE AS THE DOMINATE MODE MAY ALSO OCCUR AS AN MCS DIVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO KS LATE THIS EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE MCS TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS KS TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/COASTAL PLAINS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE NERN US. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NY AND PA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO REACH 1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AS SFC TEMPS WARM TODAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN US AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INTO THE MODERATE RANGE REACHING 30 TO 35 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 16:37:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 11:37:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407081638.i68Gc0115401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081635 SWODY1 SPC AC 081633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE HLC 35 N IML 20 ESE AIA 55 SSW PHP 50 ESE PHP 20 S 9V9 45 WSW YKN 30 ESE OFK 10 E LNK 20 WSW BIE 50 NNE HLC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 15 NNE ISP ...CONT... 20 SSE WAL 30 NW ORF RIC 50 SW DCA 30 SSW CXY 10 ESE SYR 15 W MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW FAR 35 WSW AXN 20 SW FOD 15 NNE LWD 30 ESE SZL 15 NNW HRO FYV 10 SW TUL 20 NW PNC 40 NE GCK 30 ENE CYS 65 SSE 81V 45 SSE Y22 60 NW ABR 50 SSW FAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 SSE 4CR 45 ENE LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 15 WNW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 50 E TVL 45 N EVW 25 E COD 25 NW MLS 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 15 SSW LAF 15 SE HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH 40 SE PRC 50 NE SOW 45 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 45 W ELP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEB AND S CENTRAL SD THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CHESAPEAKE REGION NWD TO UPSTATE NY THIS AFTERNOON.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD AREA FROM NE OK/SW MO TO SD...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA.... ...NEB/SD/ND AREA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NWD FROM NRN KS INTO S/SE NEB...AND THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE FROM THE S AND ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING. ABOVE THE SURFACE...12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CAP OVER WRN KS/NEB AND ERN CO...AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TODAY. IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S TO ERODE THE CAP FROM BELOW AND ALLOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION...GIVEN ONLY WEAK/SHALLOW FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT...EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA WILL BE HIGH BASED ATOP A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STORM MERGERS/STRONG OUTFLOW GENERATION MAY TEND TO FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS NEB. FARTHER N...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY DECREASE NWD FROM NEB ACROSS SD TO ND. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NRN/ERN SD INTO ND...AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS PROBABLY WILL NOT EXCEED THE MID-UPPER 50S N OF ABOUT I-90. DESPITE THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ND/SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM MT/WY...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN KS/NE OK/SW MO... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER ACROSS SE KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SWLY LLJ...WHERE MUCAPE VALUES /BASED NEAR 900 MB/ ARE NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A SWLY TO SLY FLOW OF ROUGHLY 25 KT SHOULD STILL PERSIST OVER OK/KS IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WAA/MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE EXISTING CLUSTER...AND STORMS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE EXISTING STORMS. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK OVER THIS AREA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHOULD CONSIST OF PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. ...CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION TO UPSTATE NY... SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A WIND SHIFT AND ATTENDANT CLOUD BAND WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NY...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM OH TO WRN PA/NY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS OF 66-70 F IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION... AND SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODEST SBCAPE COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 20:04:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 15:04:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407082005.i68K5O109671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082001 SWODY1 SPC AC 081959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE WAL 30 NW ORF RIC 50 SW DCA 30 SSW CXY 10 ESE SYR 15 W MSS ...CONT... 30 NNW BML 10 NW BAF 15 NNE ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW FAR 35 WSW AXN 20 SW FOD 15 NNE LWD 25 NNW TBN 65 N LIT 25 SE FSM 30 WSW MKO 20 NNE END 40 NE GCK 25 N CYS 45 NNE DGW 40 ESE REJ 60 NW ABR 50 SSW FAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MRF 40 SSE 4CR 45 ENE LVS 15 SSW PUB 30 WNW COS 30 W ASE 15 WNW P38 35 W NID 40 SE FAT 55 S TVL 25 WSW TVL TVL 50 E TVL 45 N EVW 25 E COD 25 NW MLS 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 35 NW HIB 50 NE MSP 40 E DBQ 15 SSW LAF 15 SE HTS 45 WNW EKN 30 WNW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 15 ENE BLH 40 SE PRC 50 NE SOW 45 SSE GNT 30 ENE TCS 45 W ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PORTIONS OF NERN OK/NWRN AR... ...DAKOTAS/NEB... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS REGION OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND ERN MT/WRN ND. RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS HAVE EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINED A STRONG CAP AND SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ACROSS NEB /PER 18Z LBF AND OMA SOUNDINGS/...TO THE N OF SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM LOW OVER WRN KS EWD ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER TO NEAR STL AS OF 18Z. THUS...INITIATION ALONG WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL NEB HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF DEEP...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY INTO THE NEB PNHDL. HERE...AIRMASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED AND CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXCESSIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS / MCS/S WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM WRN KS INTO SRN NEB SHOULD MAINTAIN AN INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM....WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT OVER N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB MAY RESULT IN LOCAL CAP REMOVAL...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST. CONSIDERABLY COOLER...MORE STABLE AIRMASS PRESENT E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN KS INTO FAR SERN NEB WILL LIMIT SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ...NERN OK INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR... 18Z SGF INDICATED A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER CAP THAN POINTS TO THE N WITH RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL FROM NE OF JLN TO SW OF BVO. LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO PROPAGATE SWD/SEWD AS LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ENCOUNTERS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ...CHESAPEAKE BAY NWD INTO UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND... PLEASE REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1570 AND 1571 FOR LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND E OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION OF ERN VA. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT TO VT SWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF MA/CT. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ..MEAD.. 07/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 00:57:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 19:57:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407090058.i690wS122621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090056 SWODY1 SPC AC 090054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PIR HON 10 E FSD 30 WSW FOD 25 SE OJC 40 N JLN 10 NNW JLN 20 NNE MKO 25 SSE FSM 50 SSE HRO 45 SSW UNO 35 WSW ARG 15 ENE LIT 35 NNW TXK 30 ENE DUA 40 ENE OKC PNC HUT RSL GLD 15 NE SNY MHN VTN 10 SE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO 10 SSW LNR 10 W MMO UNI 15 WNW HTS 15 SE SSU DCA TTN MSV BGM 25 NW ART ...CONT... LRD SEP 10 ENE SPS LTS 45 W CSM 20 W CDS 10 N BGS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 35 SSE YUM 70 E BLH PRC INW GUP 40 NNW 4SL CEZ CNY P38 LAS DAG NID 30 ESE FAT 15 NNW TVL 30 NW LOL 10 WSW BAM 35 NW ENV 45 SW BPI 81V REJ DIK 65 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS APPARENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PRESENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO 30-50 KT WESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS. LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 09/00Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY INTENSIFY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EXPANDING COLD POOL AND BROADER SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED. ...NORTHEAST... CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. ***FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 01:16:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 20:16:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407090122.i691Mb129680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090115 SWODY1 SPC AC 090113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PIR HON 10 E FSD 30 WSW FOD 25 SE OJC 40 N JLN 10 NNW JLN 20 NNE MKO 25 SSE FSM 50 SSE HRO 45 SSW UNO 35 WSW ARG 15 ENE LIT 35 NNW TXK 30 ENE DUA 40 ENE OKC PNC HUT RSL GLD 15 NE SNY MHN VTN 10 SE PIR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO 10 SSW LNR 10 W MMO UNI 15 WNW HTS 15 SE SSU DCA TTN MSV BGM 25 NW ART ...CONT... LRD SEP 10 ENE SPS LTS 45 W CSM 20 W CDS 10 N BGS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 35 SSE YUM 70 E BLH PRC INW GUP 40 NNW 4SL CEZ CNY P38 LAS DAG NID 30 ESE FAT 15 NNW TVL 30 NW LOL 10 WSW BAM 35 NW ENV 45 SW BPI 81V REJ DIK 65 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROB GRAPHIC ...CENTRAL PLAINS... STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS APPARENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PRESENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING EVOLUTION OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO 30-50 KT WESTERLY AT MID-LEVELS. LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 09/00Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...AND STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY INTENSIFY...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EXPANDING COLD POOL AND BROADER SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY TURN SOUTHWARD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DOWNSTREAM CLUSTER/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED. ...NORTHEAST... CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH BROAD BELT OF 30 TO 50 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IS MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING WITH STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. ***FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 06:00:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 01:00:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407090601.i6961T115699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090558 SWODY1 SPC AC 090556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE RAP REJ 30 ESE GDV SDY 15 E ISN 50 NNE MOT 55 N GFK TVF FAR 20 ESE ABR 30 SW 9V9 35 SSW PHP 35 NNE RAP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 35 E SEP 15 NW ADM 40 NNE CDS 25 E PVW 40 SSW LBB 15 SW MAF 50 SSW P07 ...CONT... CZZ 35 SE EDW 50 N FAT 40 S TVL 10 NW TVL 15 ESE RNO 10 W OWY 55 W BTM 20 NE BTM 30 NNE LVM 40 NE BIL 20 NW MLS 55 NNW ISN ...CONT... 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MTJ 40 NE U28 40 E U24 35 NNW P38 40 WSW SGU 50 S SGU 60 E GCN 55 W GUP 40 NNE GNT 25 SSE DRO 30 W MTJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED GRADUALLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. OTHERWISE...PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES IS PROGGED TO BECOME BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. WHILE THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE NATION IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME BENEATH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES/MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD. ...PLAINS... MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG/EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH. ON SOUTHERLY FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 10/00Z. ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. BUT...BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AT CREST OF MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...LOW/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AND FORCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...PARTS OF MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS... MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS COULD BECOME ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 10/00Z. WHILE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE QUITE WEAK...EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ...NORTHEAST... AS RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES ACROSS MAINE DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS WILL NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY WARM...INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR CORE OF MID/UPPER LOW. ..KERR.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 12:43:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 07:43:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407091244.i69CiX107162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091242 SWODY1 SPC AC 091240 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DEN 35 NE LAR 30 NE DGW 40 SW RAP 45 SE RAP 50 NW MHN 30 N IML 40 NW GLD 20 NE LIC 20 NNE DEN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 35 SE EDW 50 N FAT 40 S TVL 10 NW TVL 20 NW LOL 35 NW OWY 55 W BTM 20 NE BTM 30 NNE LVM 40 NE BIL 20 NW MLS 55 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MTJ 40 NE U28 40 E U24 20 NNE P38 40 WSW SGU 50 S SGU 60 E GCN 55 W GUP 40 NNE GNT 25 SSE DRO 30 W MTJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 35 E SEP 15 NW ADM 20 SSW LTS 40 SSE MAF 50 SSW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SUMMER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE U.S. AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NRN U.S....ON THE ORDER OF 30-90M...FORCE STRONGER FLOW INTO SRN CANADA. RESULTANT PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ZONES WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. THE MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO SPREAD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO...ACROSS SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE...MAINLY MULTICELL HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SURVIVE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING. ...OH VALLEY... EARLY MORNING MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA ATTM. THIS FEATURE IS WELL ORGANIZED...BUT NOT SEVERE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY IF LIFTING A PARCEL AROUND 900MB...ROUGHLY 4000J/KG ELEVATED CAPE AT ILX. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY AFFECT THE ABILITY FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...AN AXIS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE DOWNSTREAM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 16:35:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 11:35:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407091635.i69GZe110061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091633 SWODY1 SPC AC 091631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 20 SE LAR 15 S 4BQ 35 NE ISN 40 W MOT 50 SSW PHP 40 SE SNY 50 SSE LHX 35 NE TAD DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ADM 15 NE SPS 10 SSW LTS 20 W CSM 20 SE GAG 50 W END 20 SSE END 45 SW TUL 35 WSW MKO 25 S MLC 20 NNE DUA 20 SW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW ANJ 10 SSW MBL 15 S JXN 15 S HLG 10 SSE MGW 10 E EKN 45 S PSK 35 ENE CLT 30 ENE FAY 20 N HSE ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 35 WSW MWL 25 WNW ABI 70 WSW SJT 30 S P07 ...CONT... 30 W YUM 30 W IGM 70 WNW P38 30 SSE NFL 35 W LOL 40 ENE 4LW 20 WNW LWS 10 SW FCA 40 NNE BIL 40 NNW MLS 70 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WRN OK.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...OK AREA... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD/SSWWD INTO NRN OK IN RESPONSE TO NLY MID LEVEL FLOW /W OF AN MCV OVER SW MO/...AND 30 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. THE LLJ ACROSS OK SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 F S OF THE ONGOING STORMS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BECOME SMALL AND MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS. ...HIGH PLAINS... LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING TODAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND NO CLOSE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND/SE MT TO 2500 J/KG OVER ERN CO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE SPREAD WWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM KS. SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD TO ERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHER CONVECTION MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER N ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SE MT INTO WRN ND. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. ...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND INDIANA AREA... A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS MOVING EWD OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA TOWARD SRN WI AND NRN IL. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS ORIENTED WNW-ESE ACROSS CENTRAL IL/INDIANA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE THE ILX 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTS MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 19:42:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 14:42:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407091943.i69JhZ124343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091937 SWODY1 SPC AC 091935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DEN 20 SE LAR 45 ESE MLS 15 WNW ISN 45 ENE ISN 20 NNW P24 LAA 40 SSE LHX 20 SE PUB DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW ADM 15 NE SPS 10 WSW LTS 40 W CSM 35 N CSM 25 WNW OKC 35 ESE OKC 10 NNW FYV 35 SSW HRO 45 E PGO 30 NW PRX 40 SSW ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 35 WSW MWL 25 WNW ABI 70 WSW SJT 30 S P07 ...CONT... 30 W YUM 30 W IGM 70 WNW P38 30 SSE NFL 35 W LOL 40 ENE 4LW 20 WNW LWS 10 SW FCA 40 NNE BIL 40 NNW MLS 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 10 NW ANJ 25 SW HTL 20 SSE DTW 15 S HLG 20 E MGW 25 E EKN 40 SSE PSK 25 SW GSO 15 NW GSB 35 NNE HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW EWB 25 NNE PBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND AR... ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN MT INTO WRN ND. CLEAR SKIES INVOF DEVELOPING STORMS HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND 25-35KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGH PLAINS REGION. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT NV WITH ASSOCIATED REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN ID AND EWD ACROSS UT. THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS SRN WY/NRN CO WWD INTO NERN UT. LDS AND REGIONAL MOSAIC DATA INDICATE STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SWRN WY WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ASCENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. ...OK INTO WRN AR... MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN HALF OF OK AND NWRN AR INTO UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE 5-15KT SLY FLOW IN THE .5 - 1.5KM LAYER WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT. ADDITIONAL WWD DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL AND POSSIBLY WRN PORTIONS OF OK WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE UNSTABLE BUT ALSO MORE CAPPED. THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOW SYSTEM MOTION...CORRIDORS OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOW MCV LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN IA/SWRN WI WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN WI INTO NERN IL. FARTHER SE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED INVOF WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN IND INTO NRN KY WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV WILL REMAIN N OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST FROM IND/SWRN MI EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF OH AS WELL AS NRN KY. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1583. ..MEAD.. 07/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:59:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407100100.i6A10M130951@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100058 SWODY1 SPC AC 100056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW SNY 30 SE AIA 55 NE CDR 35 ESE PHP 60 SSE 9V9 GRI 35 NNE HLC 10 NNE GLD 15 SE AKO 15 SW SNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DIK 40 SSE ISN 45 WNW MOT 60 NNW DVL GFK 50 SW JMS 30 SW BIS 10 NW DIK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM SGU ELY 65 NW ELY 10 SE BAM OWY 15 SSE BKE S80 45 ESE CTB HVR 75 NW GGW ...CONT... 10 NE RRT FAR 45 ENE ATY RST 10 E MKG LAN 15 SSE DTW HLG MRB 10 NE WAL ...CONT... LRD 25 WNW SAT 50 W TPL 40 W MWL LTS 25 NNW CDS LBB 10 NNE INK FST 30 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PWM 35 NNE EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY WRN/CNTRL NEBRASKA AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.... A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LIKELY WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND COULD POSE FURTHER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... WEAK LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT PERSISTS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY FORCE MOIST UNSTABLE CENTRAL PLAINS AIR MASS TO SATURATION AND LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS A CONCERN...CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO AREAS WEST/NORTHWEST OF GRAND ISLAND THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING INFLOW FROM ENVIRONMENT WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOL. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...AS MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES HAS SHIFTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE TOPPING BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF CAPPING PLAINS MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST OF MINOT AFB. AS WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE DEVELOPS NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE DEVILS LAKE AREA LATER TONIGHT. ...OHIO VALLEY... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHERN OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG /REF 10/00Z RAOB FROM ILX/. THIS IS SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL. THOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDING ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. **FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 05:55:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 00:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407100555.i6A5tc112853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100553 SWODY1 SPC AC 100551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 30 WSW GGW 40 W MLS 25 SE 3HT HLN 10 NW 3DU 35 SSW FCA 55 NW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDR 10 N RAP 10 N REJ 10 SSW DIK DVL GFK FAR 55 W AXN SPW 40 SSW FOD 15 NNE FNB 45 SSW HSI MCK IML AIA CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSM 35 ENE ALB 25 SSW ART ...CONT... 80 W CAR 20 NE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 ESE PHX 35 NNE PHX 55 SSE IGM 15 SSW IGM IGM 20 S PGA 15 NNE U17 25 N U28 15 SE EVW 30 NNW OGD 50 S TWF 15 W TWF 20 SE BOI 45 WNW BOI 60 S BNO 30 NNE 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 55 ESE RDM 55 SSW PDT 10 WSW PDT 10 S PUW 45 ENE GEG 35 WSW 63S 20 W YKM 15 SSW HQM ...CONT... 35 N CMX IWD 55 NE EAU 20 W VOK 20 S MSN 20 SE MKE 35 NNE MKG 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 WSW ERI 20 N PSB 10 S ACY ...CONT... 15 NW DRT 45 NNE JCT 35 WNW SEP 40 NNE ABI 30 ENE BGS 25 SE INK 30 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA.... STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN/ U.S. BORDER REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...UPSTREAM OF PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO FORECAST EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OUTLOOKED OVER FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA... AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID DAY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES IS READILY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS MIGRATING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE DAY...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WHILE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY STILL BE CAPPED AT MIDDAY...INCREASING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 18Z. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE MOBRIDGE SD AREA...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING FORCING SUFFICIENT FOR CLUSTER OF STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED WITHIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THIS THREAT TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD. STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST. FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...EAST OF SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS. THOUGH FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH...VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER TO MID-LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BEFORE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EVOLVES/SPREADS EASTWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS...AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF STRONG COLD POOL WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. STRENGTHENING/ VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WILL ALLOW ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... BUT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS WEAKER THIS AREA...LIKELY LIMITING SEVERE THREAT. ...MONTANA... THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP INTO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES. THIS WILL OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY 11/00Z...LIKELY SUPPORTING EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST SMALL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MID/UPPER FLOW IS NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES VEERING TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST AND EVOLUTION OF SMALL VIGOROUS COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 11/06Z...IN MORE STABLE/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. ...OHIO VALLEY... LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. MID-LEVEL CAPPING APPEARS LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND ACTIVITY MAY BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT OVERALL SURFACE HEATING...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME HAIL. SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...BUT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 12:48:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 07:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407101249.i6ACn4125833@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101247 SWODY1 SPC AC 101245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HVR 30 WSW GGW 35 SSE OLF 25 ESE SDY 25 WSW MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 30 E INL 25 NW HIB 20 NE STC 20 NE MKT 30 E FOD 35 WSW DSM 15 NNE FNB 45 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML 20 S BFF 55 NW CDR 10 NNW 81V 20 N SHR 50 SW BIL BTM 20 E MSO 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 40 ESE PHX 35 NNE PHX 55 SSE IGM 15 SSW IGM IGM 15 S PGA 35 NE U17 50 WNW GJT 45 SSE RKS 25 NNW RKS 55 S BYI 45 NW ENV 50 ESE OWY 20 SSE BOI 50 S BKE 50 SW PDT 20 WNW LWS 45 ENE GEG 35 WSW 63S 20 W YKM 15 SSW HQM ...CONT... 35 N CMX 40 WNW IWD 25 NW EAU 15 SSW ALO 40 SE CID 15 NW GRR 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 45 WSW ERI 20 N PSB 10 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 20 S HUL ...CONT... 20 E PSM 35 ENE ALB 25 SSW ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 45 NNE JCT 35 WNW SEP 40 NNE ABI 30 ENE BGS 25 SE INK 30 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...LIFTING NEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FOCUSING DOWNSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE FOR FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S F...IS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. 12Z FRONTAL POSITION EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN ND INTO ERN MT...BUT SHOULD BECOME ORIENTED MORE E-W ACROSS SRN ND BY EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE RECENTLY OVER ERN ND...IT APPEARS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AND CAP REMOVAL FOR MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL EVOLVE BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RESULTANT PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH A MCS LIKELY EVOLVING BY MID EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE DAMAGING WINDS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT WITH MCS AFTER DARK. UPSTREAM...ELY COMPONENT ACROSS MT WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW FOR CONVECTION THAT SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLOWLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...OH VALLEY... DEEP WLY FLOW BUT ONLY MODEST SPEEDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON NRN SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE. OF SOME CONCERN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS THE REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHTS MCS WHICH HAS SPREAD INTO ERN IL. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS IND INTO OH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST PROFILES...ROUGHLY 1.75 IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 16:17:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 11:17:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407101617.i6AGHi118218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101613 SWODY1 SPC AC 101611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 25 N STC 15 N SPW 45 ENE OMA 45 NNE FNB 30 WSW FNB 25 ENE CNK 55 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML 20 S BFF 55 NW CDR 10 NNW 81V 20 N SHR 50 SW BIL BTM 20 E MSO 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 30 NW EPM ...CONT... 25 ESE BOS 25 SSE RUT 40 N ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW MQT 30 SW LSE 20 N ALO 20 NW CID 30 S DBQ 30 SW CGX MTC ...CONT... 35 WSW ERI 20 ENE AOO 20 E SBY ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 SW PHX 60 SW PRC 55 SSE IGM IGM 60 ESE SGU 20 SW VEL 40 ENE RKS 15 S LND 30 SE JAC 35 SE SUN 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 35 NE ABI 40 ESE END 35 N END 45 NE GAG MAF 80 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND MT... ...SYNOPSIS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT AND ANOTHER IN NRN CO...BOTH LIFTING ENEWD. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME SERN MT WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD ACROSS EXTREME SRN ND/WRN IA EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE FEATURES SHOULD PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN AIDING IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NWD WILL SHIFT EWD WITH LIFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS MOVED EWD INTO WRN MN THIS MORNING AND STRONG INSOLATION/HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SD/NEB THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MOISTENED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. STORM OUTFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BY THIS EVENING WITH AN MCS AND A GREATER WIND THREAT SPREADING INTO WRN MN. ...MT... ELY SFC COMPONENT EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW FOR CONVECTION THAT SPREADS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SLOW MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON BACK SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WEST OF THE DIVIDE AS STRONG LIFT SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER TROUGH. THE DRIER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...NRN MO... A WEAKENING MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO NWRN MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM FRONT LIES NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS NRN MO LATER TODAY. MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WITH STORMS...BUT WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...OH VALLEY... DEEP WLY FLOW WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA ON NRN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED DEEP MOIST PROFILES...BUT WEAK LAPS RATES. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE MORE THAN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WINDS ATTM. ...VA... CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER HI IN THE SERN U.S...SHOULD MAINTAIN OH/WV CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING...DEEP WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR BETWEEN 500-700 MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGER GUSTS BELOW SEVERE WIND CRITERIA. ..IMY.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:54:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:54:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407101955.i6AJt8116516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101952 SWODY1 SPC AC 101950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ELO 25 N STC 15 N SPW 45 ENE OMA 45 NNE FNB 30 WSW FNB 25 ENE CNK 55 SSW HSI MCK 35 W IML BFF 55 NW CDR 15 NW 81V 15 ENE SHR 15 N COD 55 ENE SUN 60 SW 27U 35 S FCA 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BOS 25 SSE RUT 40 N ART ...CONT... 55 NNW 3B1 30 NW EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ERI 20 ENE AOO 20 E SBY ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 30 SW LSE 20 N ALO 20 NW CID 30 S DBQ 30 SW CGX MTC ...CONT... 75 S GBN 25 SW PHX 60 SW PRC 55 SSE IGM IGM 60 ESE SGU 20 SW VEL 40 ENE RKS 15 S LND 30 SE JAC 35 SE SUN 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT 35 NE ABI 40 ESE END 35 N END 45 NE GAG 25 SSE MAF 75 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE NEB PNHDL/ERN CO AND THE OTHER ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW INTO ID/WRN MT. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER SHORTWAVE TROUGH /PER 18Z MESOANALYSIS/ FROM SERN MT INTO N-CNTRL SD WITH QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SEWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO NRN MO. CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL SD SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE MO RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 18Z BIS SOUNDING INDICATED RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE...HOWEVER RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM WERE PRESENT. EWD ADVECTION OF THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME ATOP DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH A WEAKENING CAP. THUS...ONGOING STORMS OVER WRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO A MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER ND...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING ON THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. BOTH FARGO/GRAND FORKS VWP AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE AND AS THEY MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER LCL/LFC / HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT E OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S TONIGHT WITH A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AND POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN NEB. FARTHER W...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ID PNHDL HAS MAINTAINED ELY FEED OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S/ ACROSS MUCH OF MT. THIS MOISTURE WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF WRN MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD/S 1593 AND 1595. ...OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST MID-LEVEL PLUME /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ AROUND NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH. STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT / CURRENTLY FROM NRN MO EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND/OH / AS WELL AS ALONG NE-SW COASTAL FRONT SITUATED OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. THOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THESE AREAS...PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY STRONG WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD/S 1591 AND 1592. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED ALONG ERN SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY ENHANCED NELY FLOW AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MAY HELP SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING WWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFER TO MCD 1594. ..MEAD.. 07/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 01:02:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 20:02:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407110103.i6B13B127816@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110100 SWODY1 SPC AC 110058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ELO 25 S ELO 30 NE RWF 20 ENE SPW 45 SE OMA 30 WNW EMP 45 S RSL 50 SSW HLC 40 NW GLD BFF 55 NW CDR 15 NW 81V 40 NE BIL 45 E HLN 40 SSW 3DU 60 ENE S80 35 ESE 3TH 45 NE CTB 65 ENE HVR 25 WNW ISN 25 SW DVL 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BOS 35 W ALB 25 NNW ART ...CONT... 40 NNW BML BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 40 SSW PRC 15 N FLG 60 NW GUP 45 WSW FMN 45 SSW MTJ 20 NW CAG 35 S DGW 45 SW GCC 30 NNE BYI 50 WNW SUN 35 SE GEG 45 NE EPH 25 E OLM 20 NW HQM ...CONT... 30 NW MQT 25 SW LSE 40 E ALO 30 ENE MLI 50 NW LAF 35 NNW CMH 20 WNW YNG 30 ENE LBE 10 S WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW DRT 55 SSE BWD 20 SSW DUA 25 NNW MKO 30 SSE CNU 25 NW PNC 25 NNE CSM 35 S MAF 85 SSE MRF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS... ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATELY- TO STRONGLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS NEWD INTO NRN MN...WHERE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING JET IS OBSERVED. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL / SUPERCELL STORMS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STRONG / ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NWRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION -- AS WELL AS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS -- SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. ...SRN APPALACHIANS / CAROLINAS... SLOWLY WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LINE MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NC. ...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT... MARGINALLY- TO MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN MT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG / SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC NW SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT COMBINED WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..GOSS.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 05:42:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 00:42:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407110543.i6B5hR132583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110541 SWODY1 SPC AC 110539 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW CMX 45 NW IWD 60 S DLH 15 WNW LSE 40 WSW CID 40 N STJ 35 SSW BIE 50 ENE HLC 35 SSW IML 10 SE SNY 45 NE AIA 35 ENE RAP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ANJ 65 NE ESC 50 ESE ESC 15 ENE TVC 15 NE MBS 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 25 ESE UCA 40 NW EWR 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 35 E SJT 45 SE SPS 40 SE OKC 15 NNE OKC 25 NE CDS 40 SSW LBB 20 SSE INK 40 WSW MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 20 SE PRC 30 ENE INW 55 SSW 4BL 35 SW GJT 45 W CAG 35 E RWL 40 ESE RIW 25 NNE BPI 20 N TWF 50 SSW S80 25 N MSO 30 S FCA 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUG 25 NW BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MEAN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER UPPER FLOW EXTENDS IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM CA / THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SRN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAKER BRANCH OF THIS FASTER FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS / LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- NOW CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS -- MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN BELT OF FASTER FLOW -- LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE -- IS NOW EVIDENT OVER WA. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE WITH STRONG RIDGE PREVAILING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SRN EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MT AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. IN RESPONSE...LOW OVER SERN MT SHOULD DEEPEN / MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 12/00Z AND THEN APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTS / TROUGHS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...ERN MT / ND... SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS ERN MT EARLY IN THE PERIOD N OF WEAK SURFACE LOW / AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER ERN MT. WITH 40 TO 50 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET SPREADING EWD ACROSS MT DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO WRN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL / DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LATE EVENING / OVERNIGHT STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...ALTHOUGH LATEST ETA WOULD SUGGEST AN MCS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ND. ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY EVOLVE...THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG / VEERING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL / TORNADO THREAT WITH MORE ISOLATED CELLS. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN SD SWWD INTO ERN CO...S OF MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN FRINGES OF THE SAME UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AND CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH EITHER WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OR CONVERGENCE NEAR LEE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...NLY COMPONENT ALOFT ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS AS FAR S AS NERN CO. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS INITIAL UPPER TROUGH WITHIN WLY FLOW N OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY -- AND THUS SEVERE THREAT -- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED EAST OF THE MS RIVER...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN NEB / THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO IA / WRN MN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LINGERING CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF WEAK / CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD IN GENERAL BE LIMITED AS MARGINAL SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION...A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL NONETHELESS BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL THROUGH EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 12:43:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 07:43:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407111244.i6BCiF116972@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111241 SWODY1 SPC AC 111239 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RRT 30 E FAR 30 WNW ATY 30 NW 9V9 25 W PHP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 20 SE PRC 30 ENE INW 55 SSW 4BL 35 SW GJT 45 W CAG 35 E RWL 40 ESE RIW 25 NNE BPI 20 N TWF 50 SSW S80 25 N MSO 30 S FCA 30 NNW 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW ANJ 65 NE ESC 50 ESE ESC 15 ENE TVC 15 NE MBS 85 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 WNW ART 25 ESE UCA 40 NW EWR 15 E NEL ...CONT... 35 NW DRT 35 E SJT 45 SE SPS 40 SE OKC 15 NNE OKC 25 NE CDS 40 SSW LBB 20 SSE INK 40 WSW MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUG 25 NW BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...NRN PLAINS... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...LIFTING NEWD TOWARD ALBERTA/NWRN MT IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FUTURE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM TFX INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 45KT OBSERVED AT 500MB AND STRONGER FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS. THIS REFLECTS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND UPPER SPEED MAX THAT WILL APPROACH WRN ND BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MT TODAY IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL CLOUDINESS. IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NWRN-SWRN MT THEN SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE ELY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE INFLOW/SHEAR PROFILES FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FORCE A SHARPENING COLD FRONT INTO WRN ND WHERE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LINEAR N-S MCS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SLY LLJ INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH INITIAL CONVECTION MAY PROVE DISCRETE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AN EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ND. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE OBSERVED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS EXPOSED TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ...MID MS VALLEY... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DEEP LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE FROM NERN NEB INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND THE PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM DVN AND ILX INDICATE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 6C/KM...WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LOW AS DOES THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 16:24:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 11:24:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407111624.i6BGOd111182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111622 SWODY1 SPC AC 111620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 50 SE FAR 30 WNW ATY 30 NW 9V9 25 W PHP 35 W REJ 10 W 4BQ 45 NE COD 45 ESE LVM 20 ENE LVM 20 NNE LWT 70 NW GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE ALO 35 ENE RFD CGX 30 N DNV 25 ENE MTO 25 NNE SLO 15 NW STL 30 SSW IRK 20 W STJ 15 WSW BIE 30 ESE OLU 45 SE SUX 40 NNE DSM 55 NE ALO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 25 NW PRC 10 SW GCN 55 WSW FMN 45 W ALS 20 SE PUB 40 ENE GLD 30 NE LBF 40 SW CDR 20 ESE CPR 40 NW RIW 20 S MQM 15 NNE 27U 30 NNW 3DU 60 N 3DU 45 SW CTB 20 NW FCA 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 65 E MQT 10 ENE TVC 25 N MBS 70 SE OSC ...CONT... BUF 15 E NEL ...CONT... 30 WNW DRT 20 NE DAL 25 ENE MLC 35 SSE CNU 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 15 WNW HOB 55 W MRF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 65 NW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IL/IA AREA... ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERMAL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SRN ALBERTA...HAS SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MT AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE FRONT IS NOT WELL DEFINED ATTM...BUT SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND AS TROUGH APPROACHES. HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MT IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW/TOUGH. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS MT...MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SHIFT EWD ONTO THE PLAINS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS ALREADY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD INTO ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE CONVECTION BECOMES ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT...THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING SHOULD ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A FAST MOVING LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE HAIL ...WITH THE WIND THREAT INCREASING ONCE THE STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM. ...IA/IL AREA... OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROPAGATED SEWD FROM WRN WI SWWD INTO CENTRAL IA. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING CHARTS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION...VAD WIND PROFILES AT DSM AND SALTER PROFILER SHOWED WLY WINDS AT 25-30 KT WINDS FROM THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 25000 FEET. A PORTION OF THE LINE HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO FORWARD PROPAGATE IN CENTRAL IA..THOUGH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT HAS SLOWED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF ERN IA/NRN IL SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING WITH THE SREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATING MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EXACT EVOLUTION OF LINE/STORMS IS STILL UNCLEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED SYSTEM FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ANOTHER MVC WAS ALSO INDICATED ON VSBY SATELLITE NEAR LNK. OMA MORNING SOUNDING WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A HAIL/WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...FL PENINSULA... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DEEP NELY FLOW WAS EVIDENT FROM 800 TO 100 MB. EXPECT CONVECTION OFF THE ERN PENINSULA COAST WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND MOVE SWWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY....THINK HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. ..IMY.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 20:02:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 15:02:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407112002.i6BK2Q106205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111958 SWODY1 SPC AC 111956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE DBQ 35 ENE RFD 30 WNW SBN 35 E FWA 40 N LEX 35 NNE HOP 55 WNW CGI 10 SSW SZL 20 ENE TOP 20 NW FNB 20 NE OMA 15 NE DSM 25 NNE CID 35 ENE DBQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 50 SE FAR 30 WNW ATY 35 ESE CDR 35 WSW CDR 55 S 81V 45 W GCC 45 NE COD 55 SW BIL 30 W 3HT 40 NNW LWT 55 NE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 15 E NEL ...CONT... 65 E MQT 10 ENE TVC 25 N MBS 70 SE OSC ...CONT... 55 WNW LBF 45 W IML 45 WNW GLD 35 S GLD 45 SW HLC 30 NE HLC 15 WNW EAR 25 NW BBW 55 WNW LBF ...CONT... 30 WNW DRT 20 NE DAL 25 ENE MLC 35 SSE CNU 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 15 WNW HOB 55 W MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 50 E BLH 25 NW PRC 10 SW GCN 30 NE CEZ 20 SW DEN FCL 40 SE RWL 30 ESE LND 40 NW RIW 20 S MQM 15 NNE 27U 30 NNW 3DU 60 N 3DU 45 SW CTB 20 NW FCA 45 NE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HUL 65 NW 3B1. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WITH WEAKER...DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN MT INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND WRN ND. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER E-CNTRL MT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NOW FROM E OF HVR TO E OF LVM. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ FROM ERN MT/WRN ND SEWD INTO CNTRL SD. WHILE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ACT TO CONDITION LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS THAT INITIATION OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF SYSTEM OVER SRN ALBERTA. CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH LFC/LCL HEIGHTS CURRENTLY OVER THE ANTICIPATED INITIATION REGION. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS ALONG EXPANDING COLD POOL AS 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATES ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. THUS...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO EXTEND EWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS WRN SD WHERE SELY SURFACE WINDS HAVE ADVECTED LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW DROPS OFF WITH SRN EXTENT...MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /SUPERCELLS/ WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 1616 AND 1618. ...MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN AIRMASS THAT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS ERN MN/WI AND CNTRL IA...WHILE WRN EXTENSION OVER SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV OVER SERN NEB. 18Z DVN SOUNDING AND CURRENT VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE A CHANNEL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WITH 25-35KT 6KM WINDS FROM SERN NEB AS FAR E AS CNTRL IND. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TEND TO MOVE/PROPAGATE SEWD WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1617. ...FL PENINSULA... ERN SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG. LOCALLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-25KTS AROUND SERN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL GULF COAST UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MAY PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL GENERATION AND ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS MOVE SWWD. ..MEAD.. 07/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 01:05:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 20:05:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407120106.i6C162125628@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120102 SWODY1 SPC AC 120100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE RRT 50 SW BJI 30 N ATY 40 WNW VTN 40 WNW CDR 20 SW 81V 10 N 4BQ 30 NNE SHR 45 SSW BIL 15 N 3HT 70 SW GGW 60 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E ELO 30 SSE RWF 40 WSW YKN 30 ESE BFF 50 WNW BFF 50 NNE DGW 25 SE SHR 40 SW MQM 20 NE 27U 20 NNE LWT 70 ENE HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 30 NNW JCT 45 SW PRX 15 SE PGO 15 NNW SGF 35 E ICT 35 NNE GAG 45 NE AMA 30 S HOB 60 S MRF ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 55 ENE BLH 45 ESE IGM 35 ENE GCN 30 ESE ALS 15 NNW COS 35 NNW GLD 45 NE HLC 15 WSW BIE 20 ESE LWD 35 ENE OTM 15 W DBQ 20 SE RST 25 NNE EAU 35 SW CMX 75 NE MQT ...CONT... 45 NW ROC 25 E BGM 15 E NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... ...ERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS... MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS ERN MT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COMPACT / ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / LOW AND ASSOCIATED 50-PLUS KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...EXPECT SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP / SPREAD EWD FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN MT / WRN AND CENTRAL ND...WHERE ONGOING STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE MEAN TIME...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL WIND DAMAGE WILL PERSIST -- LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / HIGH LCLS ACROSS ERN MT SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO WRN ND WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS REGION IN MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN A ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN UPPER LAKES. MODERATE /AOB 30 KT/ LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A LOCAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL -- PARTICULARLY WHERE SOMEWHAT-MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE BANDS OF STORMS / COLD POOLS HAVE DEVELOPED. ALTHOUGH A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...OVERALL TREND IN TERMS OF BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE DOWN. ..GOSS.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 05:54:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 00:54:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407120554.i6C5sg108966@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120552 SWODY1 SPC AC 120550 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 20 ENE MSN 30 ENE BRL 25 ESE P35 10 N FNB 10 SSE LNK 10 W GRI 25 W MCK 45 ENE SNY 15 SSW 9V9 15 S FAR 45 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 30 WNW GBN 25 S PRC 35 ENE IGM 30 SSE BCE 20 SSW U28 25 NW CAG 35 ENE RWL 45 SSE WRL 35 WSW WRL 30 S WEY 15 S BTM 45 W 3HT 60 ESE MLS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W EPM 15 NE AUG 20 NNW PSM 15 NE ORH 15 N BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW 4OM 30 SE YKM 50 NNE BKE 45 ENE BKE 10 W BKE 60 NNW BNO 45 SSE RDM 35 WNW MHS 25 E 4BK 35 NE OTH 50 N ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MFE 50 SSE SAT 15 SSE AUS 20 W LFK 40 SW MLU 40 SSW PBF 15 SSW PGO JLN 30 WSW ICT 25 ESE EHA 10 ENE CVS 25 WNW CNM ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO THE WRN UPPER LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANTICYCLONIC ARC OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM CA NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS / SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THIS PERIOD...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FEATURE FORECAST TO BE SURFACE TROUGH -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST... SEVERE MCS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL CONTINUE EWD...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE OTHER STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE DAY 1 / EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NRN MN AND PERHAPS NWRN WI SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD /INCLUDING 40 TO 50 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW/ EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS MOVE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR / INTO ONTARIO. FURTHER S INTO ERN SD / THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OF LARGELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH -- OR INVOF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FURTHER N. WITH 35 TO 45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO EXTEND SWD INTO THIS REGION...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH STORMS SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS IA THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...NEB SWWD INTO NERN CO... ALTHOUGH CAP SHOULD BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION /MID-LEVEL FLOW 15 TO 25 KT/...MULTICELL OR WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CAROLINAS AND VICINITY... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND FIELD AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CONVECTION / CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 12:32:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 07:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407121233.i6CCX6121130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121231 SWODY1 SPC AC 121228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 15 SW RHI 30 ENE ALO 25 ENE DSM 20 NE LNK 10 SW BBW 25 SW VTN 15 WSW MBG 50 SE BIS 45 WNW FAR 20 SSW TVF 10 ESE RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 4OM 35 NE DLS 20 E MHS 35 W MHS 40 ENE CEC 35 E EUG 45 SE OLM 45 NE SEA 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 15 E IGM 20 SW MLF 25 WNW PUC 25 WSW VEL 20 WNW CAG 30 NNE RWL 45 SE WRL 15 SE COD 40 WNW COD 25 NW BIL 40 W 4BQ 40 ENE 4BQ 25 WSW DIK 65 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MFE 45 S SAT 30 S AUS 25 W LFK 45 SW MLU 40 SSW PBF 15 SSW PGO JLN 30 WSW ICT 20 ESE EHA 20 WSW CAO 45 ESE LVS 30 NNW ROW CNM 40 WNW FST 25 SSE FST 20 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W EPM 15 NE AUG 10 S EEN 20 E BAF 15 N BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HTL 25 WNW MBL 25 SW MTW 15 WSW JVL 25 W PIA 15 ESE DEC 20 WSW IND 35 NW DAY 25 SSE JXN 35 SW HTL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO NERN NEBRASKA... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO WRN ND. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA AS SPEED MAX BEGINS TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED WLY WARM ADVECTION FEED AT MID LEVELS INTO BACK SIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TO SOME DEGREE THE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ESEWD INTO MN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WITH TIME...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENHANCE THE ABILITY FOR UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WHEN THIS OCCURS...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND EVENTUAL MCS ORGANIZATION. CURRENT THINKING IS LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO RENEW ITSELF AS IT APPROACHES MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN MN/WI. HOWEVER...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD EMERGE AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SD WITH SWWD DEVELOPMENT LIKELY INTO NERN NEB. SEWD PROPAGATION AND UPWARD GENERATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SUGGEST AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER EARLY CONVECTION MAY PROVE MORE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 16:55:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 11:55:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407121656.i6CGu7110910@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121653 SWODY1 SPC AC 121651 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CMX 15 SW RHI 30 ENE ALO 25 ENE DSM 20 NE LNK 10 SW BBW 25 SW VTN 50 SE MBG 20 NNE ABR 25 W FAR 20 SSW TVF 15 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 25 W AUO 25 E TCL 10 WSW HSV 10 NNW CHA 65 NNW AHN 20 E AHN 20 SE MCN 20 SE CSG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MTW 20 N MSN 30 S LNR 35 SE DBQ 20 ESE MLI 30 SSW MMO 40 NE LAF 25 NNE FWA 10 NE GRR 30 SSW MTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CZZ 55 NE TRM 30 E LAS 15 SE MLF 40 NNE CNY 15 ESE CAG 15 NE CPR 15 ESE WRL 35 N WRL 35 NW SHR 35 W 4BQ 55 N REJ 40 ENE DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW DRT 25 ENE AUS 45 SSE GGG 35 SSW ELD 60 S HRO 25 SSW JLN 30 WSW CNK 30 SSE MCK 40 ENE LIC 25 SW LHX 40 SE 4CR 55 NNW GDP 35 SE GDP 35 SW FST 25 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND GA... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION... VIGOROUS UPPER VORTICITY CENTER IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SRN SASK AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD TONIGHT TOWARD NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ND INTO NRN MN. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD ALONG AND NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING FROM SRN SD INTO SRN MN. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 65-70F RANGE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL SD...WITH DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO NEB BECOMING LIMITED BY INCREASING CAP WITH SWD EXTENT. ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN MN SWD INTO NRN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO PARTS OF IA TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN CONTINUING EWD INTO NWRN WI TONIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER VORTICITY MAX AND JET STREAK...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION. ...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO AL/GA... 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN REGION OF HIGH DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...BUT INCREASING FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER INDICATE THREAT BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...AZ... SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS EXHIBIT WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS WITH VERY MOIST MID LEVEL CONDITIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 20:12:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 15:12:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407122012.i6CKCR105490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122004 SWODY1 SPC AC 122002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW RHI CID 40 WSW DSM BBW MHN PHP MBG 45 NNW ABR 45 E FAR 30 ESE BJI 45 W INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 20 N 0A8 20 NW MSL 45 S CKV 45 NNW CSV 15 NE HSS GSP 25 ENE MCN 20 SE CSG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 30 S HEZ 55 S GLH 45 ENE PBF 25 WNW UNO SZL 40 NW CNK MCK LAA 45 S 4CR 35 NW GDP INK SJT 15 SW PSX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS EVW 20 NNW RKS 45 S CPR 55 SSE DGW 40 W SNY SNY 10 NNW AIA CDR RAP 20 WNW Y22 BIS JMS 35 SE TVF 20 W TVF DVL 55 N ISN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MBL 35 S MTW 35 ESE JVL MMO 15 NW CMI HUF DAY 25 SSW TOL LAN 35 SE MBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE AL/TN/GA REGION... ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD...NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE/MLCAPES TO NEAR 3500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SD UNTIL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...LIKELY SOMETIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING A GREATER THREAT AS SYSTEM HEADS SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NWRN IA TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS ALSO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ACROSS NEB...BUT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM THE STORMS IN SRN SD SWD INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER ACROSS NEB THAN IN SD...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN AND NWRN MN...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...AL/GA/TN AREA... 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ...BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SEWD MOVING CONVECTION WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...AZ... 12Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS HAD INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...OVERLAYED WITH MOISTURE FROM 650 TO 300/200 MB. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ/SWRN NM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...SOME COLD POOLING WITH STORMS SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..IMY.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 20:47:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 15:47:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407122048.i6CKm3121359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122039 SWODY1 SPC AC 122037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 15 SW RHI CID 40 WSW DSM BBW MHN PHP MBG 45 NNW ABR 45 E FAR 30 ESE BJI 45 W INL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CSG 20 N 0A8 20 NW MSL 45 S CKV 45 NNW CSV 15 NE HSS GSP 25 ENE MCN 20 SE CSG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 30 S HEZ 55 S GLH 45 ENE PBF 25 WNW UNO SZL 40 NW CNK MCK LAA 45 S 4CR 35 NW GDP INK SJT 15 SW PSX ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS EVW 20 NNW RKS 45 S CPR 55 SSE DGW 40 W SNY SNY 10 NNW AIA CDR RAP 20 WNW Y22 BIS JMS 35 SE TVF 20 W TVF DVL 55 N ISN ...CONT... 40 SSE HUL 25 WNW AUG 25 W CON 15 NE BDL 20 SW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MBL 35 S MTW 35 ESE JVL MMO 15 NW CMI HUF DAY 25 SSW TOL LAN 35 SE MBL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE AL/TN/GA REGION... CORRECTED TO ADD A 5 TORNADO PROBABILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY REGION ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS REGION... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NERN SD...NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT...WHILE OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN S CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE/MLCAPES TO NEAR 3500 J/KG/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS ARE ABLE TO INGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS. EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SD UNTIL CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE BROKEN AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...LIKELY SOMETIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING A GREATER THREAT AS SYSTEM HEADS SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NWRN IA TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS ALSO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED ACROSS NEB...BUT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM THE STORMS IN SRN SD SWD INTO NRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER ACROSS NEB THAN IN SD...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN AND NWRN MN...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NWRN MN. DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR WOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. ...AL/GA/TN AREA... 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ...BUT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NWLY FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SEWD MOVING CONVECTION WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ...AZ... 12Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS HAD INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS FROM THE SURFACE TO 650 MB...OVERLAYED WITH MOISTURE FROM 650 TO 300/200 MB. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN EAST CENTRAL AZ/SWRN NM. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...SOME COLD POOLING WITH STORMS SUGGESTS A LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF SLOW MOVING STORM COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..IMY.. 07/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 01:11:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 20:11:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407130112.i6D1C5115838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130109 SWODY1 SPC AC 130108 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 NNW JVL 20 SE UIN 35 SSW P35 40 NE MCK 30 N LBF 30 ENE PHP MBG 25 S GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 20 SSW HEZ 30 S GWO 35 NW MEM 35 WNW CGI 40 ENE VIH 20 E MKC 20 WNW CNK 40 ENE GLD LAA 55 N 4CR ELP ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS 40 NNE BCE 35 SW ASE 25 WNW 4FC 40 N LAR 50 ESE WRL 55 WSW COD LVM 45 E BIL 30 SSW REJ 30 WNW MBG 15 WSW GFK 80 NNW GFK ...CONT... 25 NNW ROC 20 SSE ELM 35 ESE IPT 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE WRN UPPER LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL ND ATTM...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN NEB AND VICINITY. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /4500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF NEB...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORECAST VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN ND / ERN SD / MN IN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AS THIS FEATURE CURVES ESEWD WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT WI / IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH 60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF A BOWING MCS CAN DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL. ...AZ... STORMS CONTINUE PROPAGATING WWD ATTM ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL AZ...WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXIST. LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS / HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DRIVEN BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 02:15:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 21:15:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407130216.i6D2GD103399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130212 SWODY1 SPC AC 130210 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE CMX 15 NNW JVL 20 SE UIN 35 SSW P35 40 NE MCK 30 N LBF 30 ENE PHP MBG 25 S GFK 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 20 SSW HEZ 30 S GWO 35 NW MEM 35 WNW CGI 40 ENE VIH 20 E MKC 20 WNW CNK 40 ENE GLD LAA 55 N 4CR ELP ...CONT... 20 E CZZ LAS 40 NNE BCE 35 SW ASE 25 WNW 4FC 40 N LAR 50 ESE WRL 55 WSW COD LVM 45 E BIL 30 SSW REJ 30 WNW MBG 15 WSW GFK 80 NNW GFK ...CONT... 25 NNW ROC 20 SSE ELM 35 ESE IPT 20 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW 4OM 30 S YKM 70 S RDM MHS 50 E CEC 25 NNW SLE 10 NNW CLM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO THE WRN UPPER LAKES... CORRECTED TO CHANGE ND TO NEB IN FIRST SENTENCE ...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE SUPERCELL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB ATTM...WHILE OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN NEB AND VICINITY. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /4500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF NEB...BUT DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORECAST VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET WITH TIME SUGGESTS THAT THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN ND / ERN SD / MN IN DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. AS THIS FEATURE CURVES ESEWD WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT WI / IA AND PERHAPS NWRN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH 60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT -- PARTICULARLY IF A BOWING MCS CAN DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL. ...AZ... STORMS CONTINUE PROPAGATING WWD ATTM ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL AZ...WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR 110 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXIST. LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS / HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS DRIVEN BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 06:05:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 01:05:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407130605.i6D65g105246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130603 SWODY1 SPC AC 130600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 30 SW LEX 35 WSW EVV 25 W STL 45 NE P35 55 NE ALO 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 30 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 35 W YKN SPW 40 WNW EAU 75 N IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 35 SW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 WSW HOT 50 NW LIT 20 E HRO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM 30 SSE SGU 10 NNE MLF 35 NNW PIH 25 S 27U 40 E BKE 25 NNW BNO 70 S RDM 50 SSE EUG OLM 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 25 N PIR 15 ENE MHE 25 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 25 ESE BRD 35 NW HIB 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...NERN MO...MUCH OF IL...IN...THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...AND MUCH OF OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE ATTM IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD -- AROUND NERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE -- AND ASSOCIATED 60 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD / SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...VERY MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MID AND UPPER MS / OH VALLEYS...AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED FARTHER W ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MAY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ...MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH / TN VALLEYS / UPPER GREAT LAKES... ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION OF GREATEST THREAT IS DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN ATTM...LARGE-SCALE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST / UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION. STORMS ARE INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PARTS OF MN / IA...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IF ACTIVITY HAS NOT ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...BOWING STORM CLUSTERS WITH WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOLS SHOULD EVOLVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE REGION -- WITH STRONG / FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER / MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE NEAR AND S OF UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTH OF FLOW AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE / INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO / LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG SWRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS IA / NERN MO AND PARTS OF IL / IND...WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST. HOWEVER...STORM MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY BOWS / LINES. IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR ROTATING COMMA HEADS OR SMALLER-SCALE BOWING ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERE THREAT LIKELY EXTENDING AS FAR EWD AS THE APPALACHIANS FROM NY SWD TO ERN TN / N GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO SRN SD / NEB... PERSISTENT SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MT / WY / NERN CO N OF SURFACE FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THIS REGION. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO ALLOW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS STORMS MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY EVENING...COMBINATION OF MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER FAR SWRN SD / NEB AND DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE. SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL DEVELOP...20 TO 25 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A RAPIDLY SEWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NEB -- WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR MORE ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS...PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...AZ... HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN NM / SERN AZ AND NWWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AGAIN THIS PERIOD...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH MID-LEVEL ELY FLOW PERSISTING...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- AND MAY PROPAGATE AS FAR WWD AS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. VERY DEEP / DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ..GOSS.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 12:52:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 07:52:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407131252.i6DCqg131383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131249 SWODY1 SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 20 WSW LEX 10 E EVV 25 NW SLO 40 W MLI 45 NE ALO 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 30 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 35 W YKN SPW 40 WNW EAU 75 N IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GLS 35 SW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW IPL IGM 30 SSE SGU 10 NNE MLF 35 NNW PIH 25 S 27U 30 E BKE 60 SSW RDM 30 SSE EUG 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 35 N PIR 25 NE MHE 25 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 25 ESE BRD 35 NW HIB 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 60 W 3B1 25 NE PSM. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EXTREME ERN IA...SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI...MUCH OF IL...IND AND OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH/TN VLYS INTO THE CNTRL-NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MN ATTM IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SEWD...REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY TO MID MS VLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWER...AND EXTEND NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED VCNTY CO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO THE PAC NW. INVERTED TROUGH/CLOSED LOW NEAR THE TX BIG BEND WILL MOVE WWD INTO CHIHUAHUA...SONORA AND SRN AZ BY TONIGHT. ...UPPER MS VLY SEWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS... RATHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND GIANT HAIL ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. AS H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90 METERS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SEWD... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS MORNING. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS 70-75F SURFACE DEW POINTS COINCIDE WITH ERN EDGE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS... TSTMS ARE APT TO RAPIDLY ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. WHILE HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF BOW ECHOS AS THE FLOW BECOMES NWLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. INITIAL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...PRIMARILY FROM ERN IA/SRN WI INTO CNTRL/ NRN IL. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG SWRN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE HIGHER AND SMALLER-SCALE ROTATING COMMA HEADS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL QUICKLY INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE EXPECTED IN A SWATH FROM SRN WI...ERN IA ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VLY OVERNIGHT. 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN THE CONVECTIVE GENERATING LAYER AND THIS MAY AUGMENT WIND PRODUCTION. LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS SHOULD APPROACH THE UPPER OH VLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER SW...12Z OMAHA SOUNDING EXHIBITED A VERY WARM LAYER H85-H7 WITH H7 TEMPERATURE OF 14C. THIS CAP/WARM LAYER MAY INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS MO AND WRN IA. BUT...GIVEN A STORM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN SD AND SWRN NEB... A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WAS NOTED ON VAPOR IMAGERY VCNTY NRN/CNTRL UT AND IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NEWD THEN EWD THROUGH WY AND INTO NEB BY LATE TONIGHT. TSTMS ARE APT TO INCREASE ON THE WY/MT HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S DEW POINTS TODAY BENEATH 8.5 C/KM MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES... CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES FROM NEB PNHDL/ERN WY/SWRN SD AND NWWD TO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MT. REGION WILL LIE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STORMS TO GIVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LLJ DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING MAY SUSTAIN ONE OR MORE TSTM CLUSTERS INTO SRN SD OR NEB OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT MAY TREND TOWARD ISOLD LARGE HAILSTONES GIVEN MORE ELEVATED NATURE TO THE STORMS. ...DESERT SW... DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MAGNITUDE OF POSSIBLE GULF SURGE THIS MORNING...THOUGH NAME INSTRUMENT PLATFORMS IN/NEAR THE GULF OF CA DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWAT AND SURFACE PRESSURE SINCE 06Z. ANY SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SRN AZ INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EARLY MORNING VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY TODAY AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TX BIG BEND INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TSTMS MAY CLUSTER AND PROPAGATE INTO THE VLYS OF SCNTRL AZ THIS EVENING. GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE AOB 20 KTS...BUT IF HIGHER SPEEDS EXIST ON N SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER COVERAGE WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 16:29:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 11:29:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407131629.i6DGTt101214@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131628 SWODY1 SPC AC 131626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 30 SE UNI 15 SW LEX 40 N BWG 25 NW SLO 30 NE MLI 20 WNW MSN 30 W GRB 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 15 E LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 40 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 20 W YKN 20 N FOD 25 WSW EAU 75 N IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLS 50 WSW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 25 WNW INK 15 SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 50 SSW ELY 60 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 45 SSE BKE 20 NNE MFR 25 ENE OTH 35 WNW BLI ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 35 SE MBG 15 NNE HON 40 NNW OTG 25 NE RWF 10 SSE BRD 30 E BJI RRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO ERN WY.... ...MID WEST/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH THAT CROSSED SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES IS NOW TURNING SEWD AND WILL DRIVE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALG WI/MN BORDER SWWD INTO NRN NEB AT 15Z. FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E/SEWD TO BE LOCATED FROM LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN MO THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS IA/MO EWD INTO WRN OH VALLEY. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF MDT RISK AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO INITIATING FIRST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NERN WI/UPPER MI...REF WW620...WHERE MID LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT AHEAD IS ONGOING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON....THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ACROSS WRN WI INTO NERN IA...NRN IL. AS THE 50-60 KT 700/500MB WIND MAX DRIVES SEWD ACROSS SRN MN/NERN IA SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXPAND E AND SEWD ACROSS LWR MI/IL INTO WRN OH VALLEY AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE SQUALL LINE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TYPICAL OF A DERECHO EVENT. IN ADDITION THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY POSES A THREAT OF SUPERCELL TORNADOES ALONG WITH BOWHEAD TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET INTO UPR OH VALLEY AND ACROSS OH RIVER INTO NRN KY...GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE STRONGLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND WIND MAX. ...MO VALLEY WWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN WY... AS COLD FRONT MOVES MORE SLOWLY SWD THIS AREA...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. UPSLOPE ELYS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND LIFT INTO ERN WY/WRN NEB FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING INTO HIGH PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT THESE AREAS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME. ...AZ... SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS OCCURRING OVER SWRN U.S. WITH THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER CO PROVIDING DEEP SELYS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK AND 500MB TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME PROPAGATION FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT WIND THREAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD REACH INTO TUS/PHX AREAS BY THIS EVENING. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 20:13:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 15:13:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407132013.i6DKDP109028@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 132009 SWODY1 SPC AC 132008 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW ERI 10 WNW YNG 35 NW CRW 30 E BWG 30 WSW EVV 30 NE ALN 10 SE MLI 30 ENE MMO 15 SSW MKE 40 N MSN 30 NNW OSH 10 N MBL 55 NNE MTC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 40 W SHD 35 ESE TRI 10 ESE CHA 20 NNW MKL 20 NNW POF 15 SSE SZL 40 SW FNB 30 NE MCK 45 ESE CYS 20 SE LAR 25 NNW CPR 35 SE SHR 40 SE 4BQ 25 S PHP 20 W YKN 40 E FOD 25 NE LSE 10 N RHI 95 NNW CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN 40 SSE MBG 20 SSW HON 20 SSE FRM 45 ENE MSP 10 SSE BRD 30 E BJI RRT ...CONT... 30 WSW GLS 50 WSW LFK 25 S TYR 40 SE PRX 45 NE TXK 15 N PBF 15 SSW UNO 30 NNW CNU 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 30 NNE FST 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 55 ENE U31 60 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 45 SSE BKE 20 NNE MFR 25 ENE OTH 35 WNW BLI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LRG PART OF THE GRT LKS AND MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS... ...DELAYED BY COMPUTER PROBLEMS... ...MIDWEST/GRT LKS... AFTN SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDING FROM WRN UPR MI S/SW ACROSS CNTRL WI INTO NW IL/SE IA AND NW MO. THIS BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO THE OH VLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER S...A WEAK N/S WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE/REDEVELOP EWD ACROSS IL/WRN IND. A SUPERCELL STORM THAT FORMED INVOF OF THIS FRONT EARLIER TODAY HAS DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER N CNTRL IL...AND THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. MID LEVEL WARMING/INCREASED CAPPING ARE OVERSPREADING WRN IL ATTM...PER 18Z DVN/ILX RAOBS AND STLT DATA. BUT GIVEN DIURNAL INCREASE IN CAPE...FAVORABLE BNDRY LATER ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN IL/IND...AND CURRENT STRENGTH OF NRN IL SUPERCELL...EXPECT THAT STORM...AND ANY OTHERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BNDRY...WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. MEAN WNWLY FLOW AND ORIENTATION OF SURFACE INSTABILITY FIELD SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP SE INTO IND...WITH SOME SIMULTANEOUS UPWIND DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING BACK W INTO CNTRL IL. PROLONGED DISCRETE NATURE OF STORM MODE...AND HIGH MLCAPE /AROUND 4000 J PER KG/...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND...BEFORE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A POSSIBLE DERECHO LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER N...STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS. SUSTAINED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DPVA AND 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY FLOW SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/HIGH WIND. COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER KG/ MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A DERECHO OVER SRN LWR MI/NRN/CNTRL IND INTO OH LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...CNTRL PLNS... SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN NEB THIS EVENING /REF WW 621/. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BNDRY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BACK-BUILDING AS FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SWD LATER TODAY. FARTHER W...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH 25-30 KT MID LEVEL WNWLY WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS OVER ERN WY/WRN NEB. CAPPING MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS...BUT ACTIVITY NOW FORMING OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. ...AZ... A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SRN AZ...AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON S SIDE OF GRT BASIN RIDGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER REGION RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS /MLCAPE TO 1100 J PER KG/. ABSENCE OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS...POSSIBLY REFLECTING WEAK SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM BIG BEND UPPER TROUGH... WILL ALLOW FOR UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED WITH MODEST /15 KT/ ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW...SETUP SHOULD ALLOW STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE RIM AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ TO PROPAGATE W INTO THE LWR DESERTS. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE OF AN OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..CORFIDI.. 07/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 01:24:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 20:24:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407140125.i6E1P0127406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140122 SWODY1 SPC AC 140120 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 30 NNE LBE 25 S UNI 10 SE 5I3 25 NW HSS 35 ENE RMG 25 W BHM 20 ESE MEM 35 SW PAH 30 E SLO 25 ESE OWB 45 SW CMH 20 SW CGX 45 ESE MKE 30 N LAN 25 WSW OSC 50 ESE OSC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ROC 15 S PSB 15 NE PSK 50 NW AND 15 NNW MCN 35 WSW SEM 30 N JAN 15 SSE FYV 25 NW TOP 40 NNE HLC 35 ESE CYS 45 NNW 4FC 35 WNW CPR 50 N SHR 35 N 4BQ 40 ENE VTN 45 E FOD 30 SW MSN 10 SSW MTW 55 NW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 20 NNE LFT 20 NE LFK 35 SSE PRX 15 SSE TUL 50 E ICT 15 WSW SLN 50 WNW GLD 25 WSW LIC 25 E LVS ROW 30 NNE FST 20 SSE P07 ...CONT... 20 E CZZ 25 NNE DAG DRA 50 ENE U31 55 ESE OWY 40 ESE BOI 55 N 27U 75 ENE 63S ...CONT... 55 NNW ISN 10 SSW 9V9 20 S MCW 20 NW LNR 60 SSE DLH 40 NNW ELO. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...NRN IN...SERN IL...KY...TN...NERN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...OH...AND WRN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ESEWD INTO THE MID MS / OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ...MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES... THREE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- ONE MOVING SEWD ACROSS MO...ONE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI...AND A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS KY TOWARD TN -- SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE / COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. KY BOW ECHO IS MOVING AT NEAR 50 KT...AND SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES LATE THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG / WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GREATER SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR S AS NRN AL / NWRN GA. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY CONTINUE SWD...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND SWD INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF AL / GA / MS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME...AND SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO. MCS SHOULD ROLL SEWD ACROSS NRN IN / OH AND INTO WRY PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SURGES ESEWD WITH TIME. VERY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE / ORGANIZED -- BUT STILL SEVERE -- MCS IS ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS MO TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED. ...ERN WY / SWRN SD SEWD INTO NEB... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO SWRN SD / WRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. WITH SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NWLY WINDS AT MID-LEVELS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ...AZ... MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OBSERVED ACROSS SRN AZ TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX / GBN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 06:23:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 01:23:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407140624.i6E6OA117419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140621 SWODY1 SPC AC 140618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MCK BFF 25 S 81V 30 ENE MLS 25 SW DIK 35 NE BUB 30 NNW MCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BVE 35 ESE JAN 60 N LIT 20 ENE UNO 45 NNW CSV 25 ENE HTS 20 ENE JHW 15 ESE ELM 15 SE NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MFE 20 NNW ALI 15 NW CLL 25 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 40 SE TXK 40 ESE PGO 25 NNW FSM 30 ENE BVO HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07 ...CONT... CZZ 20 ESE DAG 40 W MLF 55 SSW TWF 45 WNW SUN 45 S MSO 3TH 35 ESE EPH 35 SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 NNW IWD 20 NW MKT 25 N FOD 30 ENE P35 20 S MVN 20 W SDF 35 NE DAY 45 W TOL 35 SW HTL 60 WNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND THE MIDDLE / SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE RIDGE WILL PERSIST AT MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WITH STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. IN BETWEEN...BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY-STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL EVOLVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH -- INITIALLY W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH TIME ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. MEANWHILE...THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN EXTEND NWWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ...ERN AR / TN / GULF COAST STATES / ATLANTIC COAST STATES / PA... DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS REMNANTS OF STRONG TN VALLEY BOW ARE NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN AL / NWRN GA. STRONG WLY FLOW AT LOW TO MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW E OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING CONVECTION W OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON...DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPPRESSED E OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEST FOCUS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ALONG LEE TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS ERN VA / THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE QUESTIONS REGARDING LOCATION OF MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 25% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION OF LIKELY DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD WOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INSERTED IN LATER FORECASTS ASSUMING SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER WITH TIME. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT ACROSS TN WWD INTO NWRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT FALLS / UPPER FORCING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WEAK UPPER FEATURE / SECONDARY NWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO MS AND PERHAPS AL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT SSEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO PARTS OF NEB IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / SELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR AND E OF PERSISTENT SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH A MINIMUM IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER FEATURES ROTATE CYCLONICALLY SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG NERN EDGE OF UPPER HIGH CENTER. WITH MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THIS REGION BENEATH 25 TO 35 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ...AZ / ERN WRN NM... RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN NM / ERN AZ. STRONGER /AROUND 25 KT/ ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DESERT SW DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING SOUTH OF UPPER HIGH. THIS COMBINED WEAK WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SWRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..GOSS.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 12:59:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 07:59:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407141259.i6ECxT131671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141256 SWODY1 SPC AC 141254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E JAX 25 W CTY ...CONT... 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 40 E VIH 50 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 20 ENE DUJ 15 NE IPT 35 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SAN 15 ENE DAG 20 ENE P38 55 SSW TWF 50 ENE BOI 45 S MSO 45 NNW 3TH 35 SSW 63S 35 SSW RDM 25 ENE MFR 25 NW MFR 15 SW OLM 20 WNW BLI ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 50 N HOU 35 ENE LFK 15 SSE SHV 25 SE TXK 45 N TXK 15 WSW FSM 10 ENE BVO 10 WSW HUT 25 SSW GCK 30 E ROW 55 N MRF 40 SW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW IWD 20 NW MKT 25 N FOD 40 SW OTM 35 E MDH 50 S SDF 30 ESE DAY 30 WNW TOL 20 SW HTL 15 W ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...SERN STATES...DEEP SOUTH...TN VLY NWWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO NY... LEADING EDGE OF TUESDAYS GREAT LAKES MCS WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN NY AND CNTRL PA AT MID-MORNING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TSTMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS ERN PA AND ERN NY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE TODAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS GIVEN FAST WLY FLOW REGIME /30 KTS/...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...DELMARVA SWD INTO THE SERN STATES... A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SWD INTO THE SERN STATES TODAY. SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO 1/DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 2/ INTENSIFY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT MCS MOVING SEWD TOWARD NRN GA/WRN SC. GIVEN WNWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40+ KTS TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. ...DEEP SOUTH/TN VLY NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS... LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES WITH ATTENDANT HIGH WINDS/HAIL. UPSTREAM...CONDITIONAL THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER IMPULSE NOW CROSSING NEB HAS BEEN SUPPORTING ELEVATED NOCTURNAL TSTMS OVER THE MO VLY. AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES SEWD...SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY INITIATE IF LOCAL CONVERGENCE CAN BREACH THE CAP NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS/TN VLYS LATER TODAY WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN MT INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION. PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN 50S DEW POINTS AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND LOCATION ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT...ANY TSTM THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN LIMITATION WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT TOPPING THE WRN STATES RIDGE. ...SWRN DESERTS... COMPLICATED SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS TODAY. WEAK MCV HAS EVOLVED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS LOCATED OVER WRN MARICOPA COUNTY AT 12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD INTO SRN CA TODAY. CLOUD CANOPY WILL GRADUALLY THIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN AZ THIS MORNING. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING INTO SONORA/SRN AZ LATER TODAY. THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN INFLUX OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE GULF OF CA AND WEAK MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE VLYS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL BECOME OWING TO THE CLOUDS THINNING LATER IN THE DAY...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MCV MAY AUGMENT TSTMS ACROSS SERN CA INTO SRN NV. THESE TSTMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:22:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:22:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407141623.i6EGNA117434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141621 SWODY1 SPC AC 141618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 50 WNW CGI 35 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 10 ESE BFD 20 NNE IPT 15 N NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 65 NE P07 20 NE MAF 30 WNW LBB 20 WSW DHT 30 SE LAA 25 S RSL 35 SW CNU 20 S FYV 10 WSW HOT 20 W ELD 15 SSE SHV 15 NW LFK 15 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LGB 20 WNW DAG 45 NNE DAG 25 WNW LAS 50 SW P38 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 50 W MBS 20 SE AZO 40 ESE FWA 30 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 35 SSE MVN 30 NE P35 30 ENE OMA 15 SE SUX 40 S FSD 15 SSE BKX 10 NE ATY 50 WSW AXN 20 N AXN 10 SW BRD 40 SW DLH 25 NE DLH 30 NE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN U.S. WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NY/PA TONIGHT WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WRN NY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE TRIPLE POINT DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE N ACROSS NJ WHILE COLD FRONT TO W DROPS INTO LEE TROUGH E OF APPALACHIANS FROM MD SWWD INTO CENTRAL NC. COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN KS AND THEN WNWWD TO ERN CO. ...DELMARVA... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF LEE TROUGH LOCATED VICINITY BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY AND E OF LEE TROUGH TO COAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND INCREASING TO E OF LEE TROUGH...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AROUND 2K FT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AREA. ...TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... FURTHER S THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS DEVELOP UNDER STRONG HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. MUCAPES FROM 2500-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THIS AREA. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH ATTM IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOCATION OF INITIATION...OTHER THAN LIKELY NEAR OR JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...LOWER MO VALLEY NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PERSIST. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ELY FLOW TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. AGAIN STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS EARLY TONIGHT AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS/MO IN NWLY FLOW. ...AZ... WITH CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WEAKER LAPSE RATES NOW PREVAIL IN DESERT VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS WIND DAMAGE TODAY. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 17:19:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 12:19:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407141719.i6EHJx110770@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141717 SWODY1 SPC AC 141715 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30 NW Y22 65 W YKN 50 WNW CGI 35 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 10 ESE BFD 20 NNE IPT 15 N NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 65 NE P07 20 NE MAF 30 WNW LBB 20 WSW DHT 30 SE LAA 25 S RSL 35 SW CNU 20 S FYV 10 WSW HOT 20 W ELD 15 SSE SHV 15 NW LFK 15 S PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LGB 20 WNW DAG 45 NNE DAG 25 WNW LAS 50 SW P38 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 50 W MBS 20 SE AZO 40 ESE FWA 30 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 35 SSE MVN 30 NE P35 30 ENE OMA 15 SE SUX 40 S FSD 15 SSE BKX 10 NE ATY 50 WSW AXN 20 N AXN 10 SW BRD 40 SW DLH 25 NE DLH 30 NE ELO. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN U.S. WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER LINES ...SYNOPSIS... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NY/PA TONIGHT WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS ERN OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WRN NY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE TRIPLE POINT DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE N ACROSS NJ WHILE COLD FRONT TO W DROPS INTO LEE TROUGH E OF APPALACHIANS FROM MD SWWD INTO CENTRAL NC. COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN KS AND THEN WNWWD TO ERN CO. ...DELMARVA... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF LEE TROUGH LOCATED VICINITY BLUE RIDGE IN VA/NC. WITH APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY AND E OF LEE TROUGH TO COAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND INCREASING TO E OF LEE TROUGH...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AROUND 2K FT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AREA. ...TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... FURTHER S THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS DEVELOP UNDER STRONG HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. MUCAPES FROM 2500-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THIS AREA. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH ATTM IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOCATION OF INITIATION...OTHER THAN LIKELY NEAR OR JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...LOWER MO VALLEY NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS... NWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PERSIST. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ELY FLOW TO N OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. AGAIN STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS EARLY TONIGHT AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS NEB INTO ERN KS/MO IN NWLY FLOW. ...AZ... WITH CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WEAKER LAPSE RATES NOW PREVAIL IN DESERT VALLEYS. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONCERN FOR DOWNBURSTS WIND DAMAGE TODAY. ..HALES.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:29:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:29:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407142029.i6EKTK130226@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 142021 SWODY1 SPC AC 142019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW SNY 60 SSE 81V 20 NNE 4BQ 30 SW GDV 15 W SDY 35 SW P24 50 NE MBG 25 WSW HON 35 NNE GRI 25 SSE HSI 35 NE HLC 40 SW MCK 35 NE AKO 20 WSW SNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HUM 35 SW GPT 30 SW LUL 15 WSW GLH 30 NW LIT 10 W HRO 40 SSW TBN 10 SSW CGI 20 ENE CKV 35 SW LOZ 30 W BKW 40 SE LBE 35 WSW ELM UCA 25 N POU 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSX 50 SSW LFK 15 SSE SHV 20 W ELD 20 SSW HOT 10 NNW FSM 25 WNW BVO 25 S RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WSW DHT 30 WNW LBB 20 NE MAF 65 NE P07 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 30 SE LGB 30 ESE EDW 40 ENE NID 30 W DRA 60 E TPH 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST ...CONT... 30 NE ELO 25 NE DLH 40 SW DLH 10 ESE RWF 25 NNE SPW 30 S FOD 25 NE LWD 35 WSW UIN 35 SSE MVN 40 ENE OWB 30 W LUK 40 ESE FWA 20 SE AZO 50 W MBS 20 SSE ANJ ...CONT... 45 N BML PSM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING EWD/NEWD OVER ERN LAKE ERIE/WRN LAKE ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SWD THRU THE UPPER OHIO AND ERN TN VALLEYS MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN STATES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SWRN CO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE NWLY FLOW FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PA SWD/SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND NWRN GA...THEN WWD ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN MS. A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT REACHES FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER N CENTRAL PA ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NJ. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM SERN NY SWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN EXTENDING WWD THRU CENTRAL GA...AL AND MS BY 15/12Z. ...ERN STATES FROM PA INTO THE CAROLINAS... MORNING MODELS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-115 KT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SEWD INTO S CENTRAL KY THAT WILL EXTEND EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BEFORE TURNING NEWD OFF THE JERSEY COAST. THIS PLACES AREA OF THE DELMARVA IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION AS WELL AS BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 7C/KM. THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST VAD WINDS PROFILES...0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100 AND 120 M2/S2 WITH LCL VALUES 3-4K FEET INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...TN VALLEY REGION... COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN MS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TN INTO SRN MO. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF THIS BOUNDARY AIDED BY STRONG HEATING WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.0 - 7.5C/KM INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SMALL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MEAN RIDGE FROM NERN MT/SERN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD WITHIN THE NW FLOW INTO SD AND NE. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SWRN NE THRU A LOW OVER E CENTRAL MT. MLCAPES ARE MODERATE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG WITH STILL SOME CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL AS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN WY. THUS...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT JUST E OF THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF SD/NE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF SRN NV INTO AZ... WEAK ELY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PRESENTED SOME WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN SOME AREAS WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG FROM THE DESERTS INTO SRN NV AND NWRN AZ...AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8.5C/KM. RUC MODEL FORECAST SHOWS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THRU EARLY TONIGHT. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 01:11:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 20:11:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150111.i6F1Bp101522@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150109 SWODY1 SPC AC 150107 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10 WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CRE 50 W AGS ANB 35 WSW MKL 20 SE SGF 20 SSE UMN 35 SE FYV 10 S JAN 35 WSW PNS ...CONT... 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV 40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID 50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:04:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:04:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150204.i6F24C117557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150200 SWODY1 SPC AC 150158 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10 WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID 50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 60 ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV 40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH ...CONT... 35 WSW PNS 10 S JAN 35 SE FYV 20 SSE UMN 20 SE SGF 35 WSW MKL ANB 50 W AGS 35 SW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE REVERSAL IN SOUTHEAST ...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:11:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:11:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150212.i6F2CB120272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150209 SWODY1 SPC AC 150207 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 VALID 150205Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E RRT 20 WSW TVF 40 E BIS 30 SW PIR 15 NE MCK 50 ESE LIC 25 NW COS 10 WNW CYS 55 NNE DGW 50 NNE 4BQ 55 NNE GGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S EWN 30 ESE FAY 15 WSW RDU NHK 10 SW SBY 15 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 30 SW BRD 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 30 ESE BUB 15 W BIE 15 S FLV 40 SE VIH 30 N CHA 35 W HKY 10 SW LYH 15 SE MRB 25 ENE PKB 30 ESE FDY 20 NE JXN 15 NNE MBS ...CONT... 45 N BML 20 NE PSM ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 30 E CLL 30 SW GGG 30 SE TXK 35 SW HOT MKO 25 E PNC 25 SW RSL 30 SE LAA 20 WNW DHT 40 SE CVS 15 NNE MAF 65 NE P07 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 35 NNW SAN 30 ENE NID 50 ESE U31 30 WNW OWY 45 SSE BKE 35 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE JAX 40 SE TLH ...CONT... 35 WSW PNS 10 S JAN 35 SE FYV 20 SSE UMN 20 SE SGF 35 WSW MKL ANB 50 W AGS 35 SW CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINE REVERSAL IN SOUTHEAST ...ERN VA THROUGH ERN NC... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM N CNTRL NC NEWD THROUGH SERN VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BAND OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 45 KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ...SERN STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT...PORTIONS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM WRN SC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL AL...NE MS...WRN TN AND NRN AR. CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES SWD FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AL AND NWWD INTO NE MS. STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL GA NWWD THROUGH AL. HOWEVER...MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN...AND LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WWD THROUGH NRN AR AND SW MO. FURTHER BACKBUILDING INTO NRN AR MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS... THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN NEB...WRN SD NWD INTO ERN MT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE A N-S AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO ND FROM CANADA AND A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS SD. THUS STORMS MAY UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 06:01:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 01:01:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407150601.i6F61U123083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150559 SWODY1 SPC AC 150557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE IWD 20 SSE CWA 35 WSW LNR 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 45 SSE JMS 65 N GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE HUM 30 SSW HEZ 30 SE GLH 30 E MEI 35 S CSG 40 SSW ABY 10 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 30 NNW DRA 55 WSW ELY 40 E OWY 75 WSW 27U GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 60 NNW GGW 20 SW SDY 45 ESE DIK 35 NNE JMS 80 NE DVL ...CONT... ANJ 20 ENE MKE 40 NE UIN 40 WNW STL 30 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 20 ENE POU 35 NNE CXY 20 NNE PIT 45 WSW ERI ...CONT... 25 NE GLS 30 N GGG 25 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 50 SW CAO 30 NE 4CR 50 WNW CNM 55 NNW MRF 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PREVAILING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP SEWD AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY...AND WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SEWD INTO THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM THE SERN STATES NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN GA-SRN MS NWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN SD AND CNTRL/WRN NEB. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS... AN AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS NWWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER NE FROM ERN SD INTO MN SE OF THE COLD FRONT. STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OR ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE NWLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF ERN NEB AND ERN KS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE BACKED TO SLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY BE THE INITIAL THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO NE KS. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND MOVE SEWD ON COOL SIDE OF NW/SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY THROUGH ERN KS/WRN MO OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WITHIN DEVELOPING UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES... A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST S OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS...LA...THROUGH SRN AL...NW FL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR ALONG OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM WEDNESDAYS STORMS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MLCAPE TO 3500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...WRN MT... ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN MT IN WAKE OF FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S PERSISTING BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ENHANCE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL/GUYER.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 12:49:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 07:49:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407151250.i6FCo7111493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151246 SWODY1 SPC AC 151245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE IWD 20 SSE CWA 35 WSW LNR 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 25 E BIS 40 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE HUM 30 SSW HEZ 30 SE GLH 30 E MEI 35 S CSG 40 SSW ABY 10 WNW AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 50 S SAT 45 W HOU 30 WNW BPT 30 N GGG 25 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 50 SW CAO 30 NE 4CR 50 WNW CNM 55 NNW MRF 80 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 30 NNW DRA 55 WSW ELY 40 E OWY 75 WSW 27U GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... ANJ 20 ENE MKE 40 NE UIN 40 WNW STL 30 NNW DYR 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE PVD 20 ENE POU 35 NNE CXY 20 NNE PIT 45 WSW ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY INTO THE SERN STATES... ...CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY... SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S VCNTY NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OZARKS NWWD INTO THE MO VLY TODAY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN DAKS. STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST VCNTY THE MO RVR SWWD WHERE MLCAPES WILL REACH 3500 J/KG. MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER NE INTO THE ERN DAKS AND MN. ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS OVER ERN SD AT DAYBREAK WERE BEING DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATING SEWD. THEY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN AND COULD FOCUS SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MID/LWR MO RVR VLY. WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A POSSIBLE MCS OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER POTENT IMPULSE VCNTY WINNIPEG SWWD TO SERN SASK IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN MN/ERN DAKS TODAY. TSTMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND ERN DAKS. THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS THAN FARTHER SW...BUT STILL LIKELY GIVE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. COMBO OF DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCED BY WEAK FRONTAL SURGE WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE DIVIDE IN CO/WY. WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WEAK VORT MAXIMA ROTATE ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT. BUT...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. ...WRN/CNTRL MT... OUTFLOW FROM A SASK SURFACE HIGH WILL ENHANCED MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE DIVIDE IN WRN/CNTRL MT TODAY. ALL NIGHT CONVECTION ATTESTS TO THE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ON THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ...LOWER MS VLY-SERN STATES... A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 6.8 DEGREE C/KM ON 12Z LZK/TLH/JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/ IS WRAPPING EWD ALONG BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM CNTRL MS TO SWRN GA. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITHIN MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ..RACY/GUYER.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 16:07:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 11:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407151607.i6FG7uX31486@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151603 SWODY1 SPC AC 151601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 10 NNW EAU 25 SSE RST 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 35 WNW ATY 15 ENE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE HUM 30 NNE BTR 45 W JAN 25 WNW MEI 15 N TOI 35 NW ABY 30 NNE AYS 25 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 55 N PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 40 NW NIR 50 SSW CLL 30 WNW LFK 30 N GGG 50 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW DHT 10 SW CVS 30 WNW HOB 35 SSW INK 80 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 65 ESE U31 15 NNE OWY 65 S S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... ANJ 30 WSW MKG 30 NNW SPI 15 NNW ALN 40 SSE PAH 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON ABE 30 NNE LBE 20 SSW FKL 40 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 15 WSW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 45 NW PHP 40 WSW ABR 50 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND WRN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE RIDGE IN THE W AND TROUGH ALONG E COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SERN U.S. SURFACE/UPPER LOW SERN ONTARIO MOVES SLOWLY DOWN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NRN GA TO NRN AR. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER MO MOVES EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD FROM THE ND/SD BORDER INTO NEB BY TONIGHT. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES S OF FRONTAL ZONE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A RIBBON OF THIS AIRMASS EXTENDING NWD THRU THE PLAINS W OF MO SURFACE HIGH AS FAR N AS THE ND/SD LOW AND FRONT. ...CENTRAL U.S... WITH THE 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH THE SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW W OF SURFACE HIGH AND TO S OF DAKOTA FRONT AND LOW...VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO LOW 70S AS FAR N AS SD...A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM OR GREATER...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVING SEWD TOWARD NEB. PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT LAPSE RATES VERY STEEP AND INSTABILITY HIGH. AS IS TYPICAL IN A NWLY FLOW PATTERN...SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY IF A COLD POOL DRIVEN MCS DEVELOPS. ...MT... MONSOON MOISTURE HAS MOVED RAPIDLY N/NEWD THRU INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SRN MT WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW AROUND AN INCH. LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE RIDGE AXIS WRN AND CENTRAL MT. ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF STATES/LWR MS VALLEY... STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ERN GULF STATES TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS PRESENT. REF MCD 1684. FURTHER W TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY... STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALSO WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS. SHEAR A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA ON THE FRINGE OF THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS ARE LIKELY. ...AZ... MOISTURE CONTINUES HIGH MUCH OF AZ. STRONGER HEATING TODAY WITH LACK OF DESERT CONVECTION WED...WILL RESULT IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PROPAGATION OFF THE MTNS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS TODAY. MODIFYING MORNING SOUNDINGS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON YIELDS MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG DESERT VALLEYS ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM. WITH 10-20 KT E/SELY STEERING FLOW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SCENTRAL DESERTS BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN STILL WARM 500 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 7 AND FAVORABLE BUT STILL WEAK STEERING FLOW...WILL INDICATE JUST 5 PERCENT SEVERE COVERAGE FOR DOWNBURSTS WINDS AND HAIL ATTM. ..HALES/TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 20:21:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 15:21:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407152021.i6FKLnX31988@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152017 SWODY1 SPC AC 152015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HVR 45 NE LWT 35 E BIL 15 W COD 15 ESE MQM 35 SSW MSO 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW IWD 10 NNW EAU 25 SSE RST 30 S FOD 30 ENE SZL 15 W JBR 10 NW LIT 50 WNW FYV SLN 30 N LAA 30 ENE DEN 35 E CYS 25 WSW VTN 35 WNW ATY 15 ENE RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB 25 N PIE ...CONT... 30 ESE HUM 30 NNE BTR 45 W JAN 25 WNW MEI 15 N TOI 35 NW ABY 30 NNE AYS 25 NNE SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 30 WSW MKG 30 NNW SPI 15 NNW ALN 40 SSE PAH 40 S MSL 30 S ATL 35 E AGS 15 SE ECG ...CONT... GON ABE 30 NNE LBE 20 SSW FKL 40 WSW ERI ...CONT... 70 NW GGW 15 WSW MLS 35 ENE 4BQ 45 NW PHP 40 WSW ABR 50 N DVL ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 65 ESE U31 15 NNE OWY 65 S S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... LRD 40 NW NIR 50 SSW CLL 30 WNW LFK 30 N GGG 50 SW TUL 30 ESE GAG 25 WSW DHT 10 SW CVS 30 WNW HOB 35 SSW INK 80 SW P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MT.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. THIS IS RESULTING IN A NWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE SERN U.S. MEANWHILE SWLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER NRN VT SWD THROUGH ERN NY AND NJ INTO ERN NC. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES WWD AND NWWD THRU CENTRAL GA AND AL INTO NWRN AR BECOMING WARM FRONTAL INTO S CENTRAL NE. A LOW IS OVER ERN SD WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO SWRN NE AND NERN CO. ...GULF COAST REGION FROM SERN LA INTO NRN FL... AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE JUST N OF THE GULF COASTAL AREAS WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CARVED OUT AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.0C/KM ACROSS THIS REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST RUC MODEL CONTINUES SLOW SWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL/NRN MS WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THIS AREA. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS SWRN AND CENTRAL NE INTO N CENTRAL KS AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AIR MASS IS MOSTLY E OF WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SD INTO NERN CO. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING ALONG THE ERN EDGES OF THE INSTABILITY. LATEST RUN MODEL INDICATES SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO NRN WY WILL AID IN THE INITIATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.0C/KM...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN OCCUR NEAR THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE MAY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING STORMS. ...WRN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF MT... MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 35-45 KT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM UNDERNEATH SWLY 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE SOUNDING ALSO SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5C/KM ON NWWD EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO SWRN MT. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG FAVORING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ...PARTS OF AZ... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN AZ WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK ELY FLOW ALOFT OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS WRN AZ THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 07/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 01:07:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 20:07:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407160107.i6G17TX09393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160103 SWODY1 SPC AC 160101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW HVR 20 WNW LWT 45 NNW COD 30 S WEY 45 WSW MQM 15 W MSO 80 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CMX 60 W RHI 30 W RST 20 E P35 UNO 25 SW MEM 45 SW TCL 15 W ABY 20 N TLH 15 W AQQ ...CONT... 15 SSE HUM 25 SW ELD 40 ESE ICT 35 WSW RSL 20 SW GLD 25 E AKO 20 E SNY 40 SSW MHN 20 SE ANW 25 SSE 9V9 40 SE MBG 30 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW GGW 35 WNW MLS 25 ESE 4BQ 20 SSW MBG 25 NNW JMS 75 NE MOT ...CONT... 10 NW ANJ 30 WNW CGX 40 E BRL 45 E VIH 20 N MEM TCL 35 SE CSG 65 NNW AYS 15 SSW CHS ...CONT... 60 S CRP 20 NNW ALI 40 NW NIR 50 W LFK 15 S TXK 30 SSE PNC 30 N GAG 10 S CAO 50 WSW TCC 35 N CNM 25 SW FST 85 SW P07 ...CONT... 30 NNW SAN 25 WNW DAG 40 WNW DRA 40 S BAM 50 WNW SUN 25 E S80 GEG 40 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BOS 10 ESE BAF 30 W EWR 35 WNW ABE 20 NNW IPT 25 NW ELM 40 ENE ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN MT... ...ERN SD THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY... THIS EVENING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW IN NERN SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN KS. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM ERN KS...ERN NEB INTO ERN SD. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH ERN KS UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT... RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MID EVENING WITH BEST TORNADO THREAT FROM ERN NEB INTO SE SD...WRN IA AND NE KS. OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD AND FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM SERN NEB...WRN IA...NE KS AND NW MO. THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS WITH PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL LATER TONIGHT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH GULF COAST AREA... THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN AL...SRN MS AND NWWD INTO CNTRL AR. THE 00Z LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING SHOWED MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ALONG OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME BACKBUILDING NWWD INTO SW MO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION REMAIN LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT...SUGGESTING DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MN WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND VEERED TO WLY AND IS LIMITING CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT. INSTABILITY IS ALSO WEAK AND GENERALLY AOB 1500 J/KG. THESE FACTORS ARE SERVING TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS...SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WRN MN WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS. ...WRN MT... IT APPEARS THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER IN CANADA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CREST OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN MN WHERE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ... STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SE AZ MAY CONTINUE WWD INT THE LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS SRN AZ. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 06:07:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 01:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407160607.i6G67xX02326@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160604 SWODY1 SPC AC 160602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW OLF 30 NNW 4BQ 20 NNW SHR 40 NE WEY 15 SSE HLN 50 NNE 3DU 45 WNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW 7R4 15 NNE SHV 35 SE MKO 25 SSW END 20 SE CAO 45 E TAD 35 NW LAA 35 SSW RSL 15 NNE STJ 30 NNE DBQ 40 SSE MKE 15 WSW FWA 30 ESE BWG 25 NW MSL 40 WSW TCL 25 NE DHN 20 SE TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW GLS 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 15 SE PRX 15 E FSI 40 NW CDS 25 SW CVS 25 NNW CNM 50 N MRF 100 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 65 N MOT 30 S BIS 15 SE PIR 25 ENE ANW 25 E BUB 10 SE OFK 20 SE SUX 20 WNW FOD 10 ENE MCW 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 NE NEL 10 ENE LBE 35 WNW EKN 20 NNE BKW 45 S PSK 30 SE CLT 20 SW FLO 40 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MT... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S... A SURFACE FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS PLAINS...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TODAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH ERN IA...NRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS FRONT IS DIFFUSE WITH 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH AR AND INTO NE OK OR SW MO. THESE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARIES FROM THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK. STORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS WRN IA AND NRN MO MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS SRN MO BY 12Z. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR OR NEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SRN MO OR NRN AR AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN VICINITY OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY FROM SRN KS NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SRN IA AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD. A LARGE MCS CURRENTLY PERSISTS ACROSS WRN KS AND CONTINUES DEVELOPING SEWD. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OR SERN KS INTO NRN OK. MOREOVER...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH COULD ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF KS AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM NERN OK...ERN KS INTO MO AND AR WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS FARTHER S ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF COASTAL AREA NWWD INTO PARTS OF LA. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS AREA AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ...MT... UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY IN THIS REGION AND WILL TEND TO SHUNT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES NWD INTO CANADA... LEAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE UPPER SUPPORT FOR MT. HOWEVER...ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS CNTRL MT UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD. POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS... THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES S OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. THIS AND LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SRN MANITOBA WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE FROM SRN WI SWD THROUGH IL/IND...AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TO SUPPORT 0-6 SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MODEST INSTABILITY SHEAR MAY TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ...AZ... ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD WWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS. ..DIAL.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 12:20:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 07:20:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407161220.i6GCKRX12177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161217 SWODY1 SPC AC 161215 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE LIT 45 S JBR 20 W MEM 25 WSW UOX 40 NNE JAN 45 W JAN 15 ESE MLU 20 NE ELD 20 ENE HOT 35 N LIT 50 NNE LIT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ADM 10 E LTS 20 ESE AMA CAO 10 W LHX DDC SLN CNK LNK 10 WSW DSM DBQ MSN 10 ESE MKG 10 NNE FDY 10 E DAY HUF ALN COU 15 ESE OJC 35 N JLN 20 ENE SGF 20 SE TBN 40 SSE CGI MSL BHM 10 SSE AUO DHN 15 NNE MOB 35 ENE MSY 30 SSE POE 10 S TXK 30 SSE MLC 35 W ADM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N MOT 30 S BIS 15 SE PIR 25 ENE ANW 25 E BUB 10 SE OFK 20 SE SUX 20 WNW FOD 10 ENE MCW 65 N EAU 70 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 NE NEL 10 ENE LBE 35 WNW EKN 20 NNE BKW 45 S PSK 30 SE CLT 20 SW FLO 40 N HSE ...CONT... 50 WSW GLS 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 35 SSW PRX 30 NNW MWL 50 SSE CDS 25 SW CVS 25 NNW CNM 50 N MRF 100 SW P07 ...CONT... 10 SW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.... LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST IN UPPER FLOW REGIME...FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. HIGHEST HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...WITH RIDGE SHARPENING SOME ALONG AN AXIS NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. IN RESPONSE...STRONGER BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK...WHICH TOPPED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE YESTERDAY...IS ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...WHILE ANOTHER PERTURBATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. LATTER FEATURE...ENHANCED BY ASSOCIATED LARGE CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER YESTERDAY EVENING...EMANATED FROM SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY...JUST UPSTREAM OF SYSTEM DIGGING FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE OZARKS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDDAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXTEND IN TONGUE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS IS BENEATH NOSE OF LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG CONDITIONAL/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 4000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/SOME HAIL...WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF LARGE STRONG COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLY ALABAMA...BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR MORE STABLE COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WHILE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS MOIST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH BELT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60F...DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH MODERATELY SHEARED...RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...MONTANA... NEAR/JUST EAST OF CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH HEATING IN MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS PRIMARY THREATS. ...ARIZONA... WEAK WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS ON WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY MID/UPPER STEERING FLOW...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED MICROBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK FOR SOME HAIL. ..KERR/GUYER.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 16:15:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 11:15:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407161615.i6GGFiX11780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161612 SWODY1 SPC AC 161610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW JBR 45 S JBR 20 W MEM 50 WSW CBM 25 ESE JAN 25 NNE HEZ 15 SSW MLU 20 NE ELD 25 SSW LIT 25 N LIT 60 SSW JBR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUF 25 ENE JEF 35 NNE SZL 10 E LWD 30 E DSM 30 W CID 10 SW DBQ 25 NE JVL 20 ENE MKE 25 WSW MKG 10 E AZO 35 NE FWA 20 SSW DAY 10 SSE HUF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MSY 40 NE LCH 25 SSE SHV 45 NW TXK 40 WSW MLC 30 NW FSI 55 W CSM 65 WSW GAG 30 ESE LBL 20 W P28 25 ESE ICT CNU 15 NE UMN 30 WSW UNO 35 WSW POF 15 WNW DYR 45 SE MKL 30 NW BHM 35 NNE SEM 35 SW TOI 15 NNW CEW 40 E MSY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 40 ESE Y22 40 WNW BBW 40 NNE HLC OMA 15 S RST 20 NE IWD ...CONT... 10 SE ACY DOV 10 ESE BWI 15 SSE HGR 10 ESE PIT 20 SW HLG 15 SSE TRI 30 WNW AHN 40 NE MCN 40 SSE AGS 30 S FLO 35 SE EWN ...CONT... 50 E PSX 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 45 SSE PRX 40 SSW CDS 40 ENE LVS 10 NNW LVS 10 ESE SAF 20 ENE ABQ 35 ESE TCS 15 W ELP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN AR INTO NRN AND CENTRAL MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OH VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE WRN RIDGE CONTINUES WITH BROAD TROUGH ERN U.S. NWLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM NCENTRAL U.S. TO THE SERN STATES. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE NWLY FLOW ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV OVER WRN KS. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NRN WI SWWD THRU WRN KS TO SRN CO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SEWD . OVERNIGHT MCS NOW MOVING FROM MO INTO AR WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THRU THE DAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOWER MS VALLEY. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... LEADING EDGE OF MCS HAS MOVED INTO NRN AR AND EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG RESIDE. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE MCS CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD MS. WILL CONTINUE MDT RISK FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TAKE THE MCS TO THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING. WELL DEFINED MCV OVER KS WILL MOVE S OF E TOWARD NERN OK AND WRN AR BY THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD VICINITY OK/KS BORDER WILL BE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION OF THE MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS KS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS OK ALONG WITH MLCAPES TO ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE WARMEST PART OF AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9C/KM DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORMS. STORMS COULD THEN EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS AS THEY TRACK BACK INTO AR TONIGHT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ...MID WEST... REF MCD 1706 WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NWLY FLOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY ATTM...WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND S OF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD FROM NRN WI TO SWRN IA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK BUT THERE IS NEARLY A 100KT HIGH LEVEL NWLY JET OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION TO STORMS IN THE FORM OF SHORT LINES/BOWS AS THEY TRACK SE ACROSS MID MS/WRN OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BY LATE EVENING. ...AZ... NOTICEABLE MID LEVEL COOLING PAST 24 HOURS ON AZ 12Z SOUNDINGS. WITH AIR MASS REMAINING VERY MOIST...MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ELY/SELY STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING STORMS INTO THE DESERT VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER WITH ONLY 10-15 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPMENT INTO THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOW. GIVEN THE MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF LATER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER STEERING FLOW THAN NOW EXPECTED THEN AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED. ...NRN ROCKIES... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON TOP OF THE LARGE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS FROM THE HIGH BASED STORMS. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 21:11:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 16:11:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407162111.i6GLBVX00426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162058 SWODY1 SPC AC 162056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HOT 40 N GWO 45 SW CBM 25 NE LUL 25 NNE MCB 30 W HEZ 40 E SHV 30 SSW HOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW BVE 40 ESE LFT 40 NE LCH 35 NE LFK 15 ENE MLC 10 NNE MKO 50 WSW ARG 40 SSW JBR 10 WSW MEM 45 WNW MSL 50 SSE MSL 30 W LGC 10 ESE TOI 20 NE CEW 40 WSW PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CID 10 ESE MSN 40 W MKG 15 S GRR 15 S JXN 30 W FDY 30 W DAY 35 SW HUF 30 E COU 35 W COU 35 S P35 30 SSW DSM 25 NNE CID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FLG 50 NNW SAD 15 SSW SAD 40 S SAD 30 W TUS 55 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SW IGM 55 NNW PRC 15 S FLG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 40 NE HOU 10 N LFK 45 SSE PRX 40 SSW CDS 40 ENE LVS 10 NNW LVS 10 ESE SAF 20 ENE ABQ 35 ESE TCS 15 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNW MOT 40 ESE Y22 40 NNE LBF 30 NE DDC 25 E P28 30 W CNU 30 NE OMA 40 ESE EAU 20 NE IWD ...CONT... 10 SE ACY DOV 10 ESE BWI 15 SSE HGR 10 ESE PIT 20 SW HLG 15 SSE TRI 30 WNW AHN 40 NE MCN 40 SSE AGS 30 S FLO 35 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN/SERN AR...NERN LA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ... ...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM MS INTO WRN AL. THE CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN MS AND ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EACH HAVE COLD POOLS WITH THEM...BUT THEY ARE NOT VERY STRONG. THE STORMS ACROSS NRN MS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SSEWD INTO THE EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...DUE TO DECREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL FROM ONGOING STORMS AND WEAK COLD POOL WITH NRN MS STORM CLUSTER. HOWEVER...THE 18Z ETA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA AND WRN MS BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THUS...A MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THESE REGIONS WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL AR AND NERN LA. AN MCV CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SSEWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR...WITH INITIATION POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A TRIPLE POINT OVER NERN-ERN OK OR INTO WRN AR BY EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK INHIBITION WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. 18Z ETA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR A BOW ECHO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. ...MIDWEST... AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI/ERN IA AND NRN IL/NERN MO IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS NERN WI ATTM. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COMBINED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE. ...AZ... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL MCV OVER CENTRAL AZ EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH NEW STORMS EXPECTED AND STRONG HEATING IN THE DESERT VALLEYS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1711. ...NRN ROCKIES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMBINED WITH NRN EXTENT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ..PETERS.. 07/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 01:10:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 20:10:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407170110.i6H1AIX07106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170107 SWODY1 SPC AC 170105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SGU 35 WSW GCN 40 W SOW 45 N TUS 70 S GBN 40 S EED 45 SSW LAS 25 N DRA 40 WNW P38 20 ENE P38 35 SSE SGU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 35 N POE 35 WSW PGO 30 W FSM 30 E FYV 10 WSW MEM 50 N MEI 30 W PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW P24 10 W P24 20 E DIK 35 SSE MLS 15 WSW BIL 20 NNE 3HT 40 NNE LWT 15 SW OLF 50 NNW P24. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 45 ESE MOT 25 NW VTN 45 NNW GAG 35 ESE AMA 60 WSW TCC 30 E TCS 35 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 N LFK 20 NNW DAL 15 NW OKC SLN 25 E DSM 40 WSW CWA 15 ESE APN ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 35 N BWI 20 SSE LBE 30 WNW EKN 30 NE 5I3 50 NNE ATL 35 N MCN 50 S AGS 40 NNW CHS 15 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF AZ AND NV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN MS...THEN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL AR. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z RAOB SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7C AT 6 KM. AN MCV CENTERED OVER NE OK WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF AR...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED. FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESPONSE FROM THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 20 OR 25 KT...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT STILL EXISTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...AZ THROUGH SRN NV... STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING WWD THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SRN AZ AND INTO SRN NV. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY S OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LIMITED AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 02:09:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 21:09:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407170209.i6H29tX24421@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170204 SWODY1 SPC AC 170202 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SGU 35 WSW GCN 40 W SOW 45 N TUS 70 S GBN 40 S EED 45 SSW LAS 25 N DRA 40 WNW P38 20 ENE P38 35 SSE SGU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 35 N POE 35 WSW PGO 30 W FSM 30 E FYV 10 WSW MEM 50 N MEI 30 W PNS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW P24 10 W P24 20 E DIK 35 SSE MLS 15 WSW BIL 20 NNE 3HT 40 NNE LWT 15 SW OLF 50 NNW P24. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MOT 45 ESE MOT 25 NW VTN 45 NNW GAG 35 ESE AMA 60 WSW TCC 30 E TCS 35 W ELP ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 ESE DAG 60 N NID 35 WSW BIH 45 SSW TVL 25 WSW NFL 65 WNW WMC 60 SSE BNO 20 SSW LWS 50 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 35 N LFK 20 NNW DAL 15 NW OKC SLN 25 E DSM 40 WSW CWA 15 ESE APN ...CONT... 10 ESE NEL 35 N BWI 20 SSE LBE 30 WNW EKN 30 NE 5I3 50 NNE ATL 35 N MCN 50 S AGS 40 NNW CHS 15 ENE CRE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF AZ AND NV... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... CORRECTED FOR TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... THIS EVENING A SURFACE FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST AREA NWWD THROUGH WRN MS...THEN TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL AR. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z RAOB SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-7C AT 6 KM. AN MCV CENTERED OVER NE OK WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM ERN OK THROUGH MUCH OF AR...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED. FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE MORE UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESPONSE FROM THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MAY INCREASE TO 20 OR 25 KT...ENHANCING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT STILL EXISTS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...AZ THROUGH SRN NV... STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING WWD THROUGH THE DESERT VALLEYS OF SRN AZ AND INTO SRN NV. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH WRN ND... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN ND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD FROM SRN CANADA MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AREAS... WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY S OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA IS LIMITED AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 05:55:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 00:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407170555.i6H5teX18515@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170553 SWODY1 SPC AC 170551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BPT 45 S LFK 55 WNW LFK 20 NNE TYR 30 SSW ELD 15 NE GWO 35 WSW MSL 45 ESE BNA 40 E CHA 40 NE ATL 25 NE MGM 30 SSW LUL GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 40 WSW LNK 30 WNW SLN 20 NW P28 20 SSW OKC 10 WSW PGO 20 E UNO 20 S DEC 35 ESE ESC 25 NW ANJ ...CONT... 20 W PSX 50 WSW HDO 15 NE P07 ALM SVC 45 E DUG ...CONT... 10 NNE YUM 35 ESE LAS 20 E DRA 25 SW BIH 65 SE RBL 30 SSW MFR 25 ENE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SERN STATES THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND E TX... UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN U.S. MAINTAINING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SSEWD AND INTO THE TN VALLEY LATER TODAY. A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY OH SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND INTO N TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. MCS MAY BE ONGOING WITH POSSIBLE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS BY 12Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY COVER PART OF THE SERN STATES DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA...LIMITING OR DELAYING DESTABILIZATION. SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OF THE MCS AHEAD OF SWD MOVING SURFACE FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN MS NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SEWD MOVING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 30 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS...BUT STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZED INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM LA WWD INTO E TX WHERE A RESERVOIR OF UNUSED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES ERN NC INTO ERN VA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RICHER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE SPREADING INLAND THROUGH ERN NC...AND THIS MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD INTO PARTS OF SERN VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...POSSIBLY AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH THREAT OF MAINLY WET MICROBURSTS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...NW U.S.... ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NWRN U.S. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 12:41:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 07:41:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407171241.i6HCfuX27492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171239 SWODY1 SPC AC 171237 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SEM 45 ENE MEI 40 SW CBM 30 SSW UOX 35 S MKL 45 N MSL 35 SSE BNA 10 SW CSV 10 WNW AVL 45 NNW FLO 30 W CRE 15 NW SAV 35 ENE CSG SEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CTB 10 ESE LVM 50 SSW COD 45 N CPR 30 SSE 4BQ 15 N Y22 65 NNE BUB 30 WNW SLN 15 S P28 25 ENE FSI 50 NW TXK 45 ENE PBF 25 S DNV 50 WNW MKG 40 W ANJ ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 55 WSW HDO 10 SSE FST 10 W ALM SVC 45 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 55 SW LAS 60 NW NID 65 SE RBL 35 SW MFR 25 ENE UIL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF STATES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM A CENTER OF HIGHER HEIGHTS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING INTO THE LOWER OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT. ...GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.. COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH MID 70S DEW POINTS HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED DUE TO EXTENSIVE PRIOR CONVECTION AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION TODAY...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR 70F ALONG PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH... WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST...MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...BEFORE WAVE CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. WHILE MAGNITUDE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT IF SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUGGESTED BY GFS...SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST/INCREASE OVERNIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES... PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OFF THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG HEATING...AND WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. PERTURBATIONS MIGRATING AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...ONE NOW NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...ANOTHER LIFTING INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THEY PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY. ...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS... SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING RIDGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA ...PERHAPS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF PLATEAU/ROCKIES THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD...AND BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 16:22:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 11:22:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407171622.i6HGMbX27233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171619 SWODY1 SPC AC 171617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW DVL 40 E PIR 40 NW OFK 25 ESE HSI 55 NNW GCK 50 SSE CDS 35 N MWL 25 SSW PRX 35 SSW HOT 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN ...CONT... 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW 3B1 25 SSE CAR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CTB 30 SE LVM 35 SSW LND 35 NNE LAR 55 W CDR 40 N 81V 50 N GGW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINS OVER ROCKIES WITH CENTER OVER NRN NM. BROAD TROUGH ERN U.S. WITH UPPER LOW CENTER ACROSS OH MOVING LITTLE. WEAK S/WV TROUGHS DROPPING SEWD IN NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONT FROM LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO N TX WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE SEWD. ...GULF STATES AND SERN U.S... S OF COLD FRONT AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND VARIABLY UNSTABLE. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE GULF STATES TO S OF FRONT THIS MORNING...COUPLED WITH THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY. RICH TROPICAL INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE AROUND 20KT OF FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PULSE STORM MODE. WITH MLCAPES BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. INLAND GULF STATES...SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS 30KT OF 500MB FLOW AND 60-70KT 300 MB JET MAX MOVES THRU BOTTOM OF TROUGH POSITION. HOWEVER WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES 6C/KM OR LESS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO E OF NRN ROCKIES LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM AND MDT/STG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WRN SD/NEB AND MOVE SEWD ON THE E SIDE OF WRN RIDGE. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY SOME STRONG CONVECTION COULD MOVE SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA TONIGHT WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. ...INTERIOR WRN U.S... MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NWD ON THE W SIDE OF ROCKIES RIDGE. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS STORMS MOVE INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 20:01:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 15:01:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407172001.i6HK1xX24207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171959 SWODY1 SPC AC 171957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM ...CONT... 65 NW DVL 40 E PIR 40 NW OFK 25 ESE HSI 55 NNW GCK 50 SSE CDS 40 WNW MWL 40 NNW TYR 30 NW ELD 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S. AND GULF STATES INTO TN VALLEY... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OH VALLEY. BAND OF 35 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDED FROM ERN NEB/ERN KS TO ACROSS THE OZARKS...WITH 30 KT OF FLOW OVER THE INLAND GULF STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE STRONGER UPSTREAM FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AFTER 03Z. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST TO COASTAL AREAS OF GA TO SRN NC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITHIN THIS AREA...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. FURTHER N ACROSS ERN TN AND THE INLAND GULF COAST STATES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAKER. THUS...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THIS TROUGH ARE MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN MT TO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN MT TO THE BLACK HILLS OF NERN WY/ WRN SD. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A THREAT ALSO FOR DEVELOPMENT IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY INTO SWRN SASKATCHEWAN/ AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE U.S...BUT STRONGER INSTABILITY IN SRN CANADA MAY SUPPORT A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN CANADA TONIGHT. ...INTERIOR WRN STATES... MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE VALLEYS THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 04:02:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 23:02:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407180402.i6I42JX19381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180056 SWODY1 SPC AC 180054 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE P07 10 ENE CNM 15 NNE 4CR 10 N ONM 40 N SVC 65 E DUG ...CONT... 15 W YUM 40 SW EED 60 NNE DAG 60 NNE BFL 40 WSW TVL 35 SW MFR 15 NNE OLM ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 40 E PIR 40 NNE BUB 50 SSW HSI 45 SSW RSL 35 WSW CSM 25 S SPS 40 NNW TYR 30 NW ELD 65 N LIT 15 SSE STL 10 N CGX 20 NNE MBL 10 NE APN ...CONT... 15 SW PSX 20 SE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN CAROLINAS... FORCING FOR ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING EWD INTO THE REGION HAS HELPED MAINTAIN STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS THIS EVENING FROM THE SC COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S IS LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY / I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG / OBSERVED ON THE 00Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE WEAK AND LESS THAN MOIST ADIABATIC. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE MS DELTA REGION SWWD INTO CNTRL TX /N OF AUS/. STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF TX PORTION OF FRONT...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...IS RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG EWD INTO NRN LA. ONGOING STORMS FROM NWRN MS INTO NRN LA AND E-CNTRL TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER COLD POOLS. GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/FORWARD-PROPAGATION POTENTIAL...THUS ONLY WARRANTING LOW PROBABILITIES. ...NERN NM INTO THE TX PNHDL... LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED OVER NERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING SEWD ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE/WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL. THOUGH 00Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 3-4KM AGL...OVERALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WAS RELATIVELY WEAK. MOREOVER...LAPSE RATES AT OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC WERE LIMITING MLCAPES TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING COLD POOL OVER NERN NM. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PNHDL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WRN ND /NE OF DIK/ WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING. ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED. ...NRN ROCKIES... TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE GREAT BASIN NWD INTO ERN WA AND ID WITHIN PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /PER CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. THOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ONLY MARGINAL...00Z BOI SOUNDING INDICATED A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 600MB WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ..MEAD.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 05:21:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 00:21:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407180521.i6I5LNX07577@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180519 SWODY1 SPC AC 180517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE MQT 45 NNW GRB 25 ENE LSE 35 SSE RWF 25 NW ABR 60 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU 60 NE PHX 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 NNE FAT 30 NE RBL 50 ESE CEC 35 SSE OTH 30 E BLI ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 30 ESE VOK 30 SE GRI 20 NNE EAR 25 NW REJ 30 NNW 4BQ 20 SW SHR 40 SSE CPR 30 SSE GLD 10 NW DDC 25 WSW CSM 10 WNW BWD 10 ENE CLL 20 N POE 20 SSW JAN 45 SW 0A8 15 NNW BHM 45 SSE MKL 25 SW PAH 20 NNW MTO 30 NNE BEH 40 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW P07 30 WSW CNM 15 SSE TCS 30 WSW SVC 40 ESE DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DOMINANT FEATURES BEING DEEP TROUGH IN THE E AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL LIFT NEWD FROM MEAN TROUGH POSITION ACROSS MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA REGION TODAY. FARTHER NW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH / CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA / WILL TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM PROGRESSES NEWD ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM SC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION BY EARLY EVENING WITH TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING REINFORCED ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT SWWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL PROGRESS SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS N-CNTRL MN/CNTRL ND AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES... LARGE MCS HAS EVOLVED TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE ND OR MN BORDER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS THAT MOVES SEWD OUT OF S-CNTRL CANADA DURING THE DAY AND/OR WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 150-250 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH...SUGGESTING THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BOWING STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS NRN INTO CNTRL MN WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CO-EXIST. DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD SPREAD AS FAR E AS WRN UP OF MI INTO NRN/CNTRL WI OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WHICH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION INTO CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS... STRONG...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NWD FROM THE DELMARVA TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG AND N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. FARTHER S...IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG COLD FRONT WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE AREA. DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF HIGH-LEVEL FLOW OF 80-90KTS WITH 30-40KTS IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK. ...NRN ROCKIES... RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500 J/KG. APPROACH OF PACIFIC NW MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED AREAS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE BEST INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 12:21:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 07:21:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407181221.i6ICLuX25882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181219 SWODY1 SPC AC 181217 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0717 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT 25 WNW RHI MSP 45 NNE ATY GFK 65 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 30 N MRF 50 NNW SVC 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG ...CONT... 15 WSW YUM 20 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 65 W DRA 60 NW NID 40 ENE SAC 25 NNE RBL 50 ESE EKA 35 SSE OTH 30 E BLI ...CONT... 50 W ANJ 25 E VOK 10 SSE MCW 30 SE SUX 30 NW OMA 25 WSW EMP 10 SW HUT 20 W RSL 35 E REJ 30 NNW 4BQ 20 SW SHR 40 SSE CPR 50 ESE LIC LBL 30 ENE CDS 20 NE SEP 30 SSW LFK BTR 30 NNE MOB 30 WSW TOI 25 ENE ANB 25 NNW CHA 40 E MDH 15 NNW DEC 35 W BEH 40 SE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.... IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPSTREAM JET STREAK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE VANCOUVER ISLAND/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY UPPER RIDGE...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC... WILL PROGRESS AROUND CREST OF RIDGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS TOPPING RIDGE IN BELT OF STRONGER FLOW FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR VORTEX. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO ONTARIO BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BORDER...DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE LIFTING AROUND EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OF CIRCULATION... ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ...NORTH CENTRAL STATES... IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WEAKENING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING...AND AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID/UPPER FORCING SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA ...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS MAY CAP POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. INHIBITION WILL REMAIN WEAKER ACROSS MINNESOTA...AND LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND/THERMAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA BORDER MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON NOSE OF NORTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THIS EVENING...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. COOLER LOWER-LEVELS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ,,,SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO BE QUITE WEAK...BUT 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING BY EARLY EVENING. SHEAR MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST IN STRONGER CELLS...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. RISK OF HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER DRY IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURSTS...AS HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH STRONGER FORCING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MONTANA...BENEATH WEAK WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. THREAT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...DUE TO RELATIVELY RAPID COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUNSET. IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE...STRONG HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MICROBURSTS AS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EAST OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST...MAY FAVOR STRONGER DOWNBURSTS...BUT OVERALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. ..KERR/CROSBIE.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 16:23:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 11:23:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407181623.i6IGNrX25705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181618 SWODY1 SPC AC 181617 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CMX 40 S IWD 25 ESE STC 45 SW AXN GFK 80 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 10 ESE EAU 40 W RWF 30 NNE PHP 15 NE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GAG 25 W LTS 55 E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 25 W TYS 20 S EVV LAF 15 ESE GRR 20 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF 30 SW 4CR 65 NNE SAD 20 WSW DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN MN... ...SYNOPSIS... LILLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVER INTERIOR W AND BROAD TROUGH MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EWD ERN U.S. UPPER LOW OFF W COAST MOVING NNEWD INTO SWRN B.C. BY MON MORNING. A WEAK IMPULSE IS EMBEDDED IN MONSOONAL FLOW ON W SIDE OF RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. S/WV TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO CANADA WILL HAVE INFLUENCE PRIMARILY N OF BORDER. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS ND THIS AFTERNOON INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND AID IN DESTABILIZATION PROCESS NRN MS VALLEY..BUT ALSO PROMOTE CAPPING. MAIN S/WV TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER TROUGH. ...NRN MN... OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING INTO NWRN MN WEAKENING...WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SLOWING THE HEATING PROCESS. MODELS BRING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT INTO NRN MN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION NOTED AT THE 850MB LEVEL AT 12Z NRN PLAINS...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE EWD ACROSS NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO A MCS DURING EVENING...HOWEVER THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE N OVER CANADA. ..MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THIS AREA AS S/WV MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING E OF APPALACHIANS...THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURST THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...WRN U.S... CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW WARMING THIS PM OVER INTERIOR NWRN U.S. AS WEAK S/WV TROUGH MOVES THRU NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR NWRN U.S...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND REDUCED SURFACE HEATING. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 20:14:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 15:14:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407182014.i6IKEYX24187@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 182005 SWODY1 SPC AC 182003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DLH 25 ESE STC 45 SW AXN 40 SSE JMS 80 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF 30 SW 4CR 75 NNW SVC 50 E DUG ...CONT... 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 10 ESE EAU 40 W RWF 30 NNE PHP 15 NE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 35 NNW GAG 25 W LTS 55 E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 40 W CSV 20 S EVV LAF 25 NNW AZO 20 NNE MBS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND AND NRN MN... ...ERN ND/NRN MN... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS MOVED SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN MN...AWAY FROM ERN ND/NWRN MN WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA TO CENTRAL ND...WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/. MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/ WRN MN COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO ERN ND/NWRN MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS EWD ACROSS NRN MN. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ND/MANITOBA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 00Z...WITH STORMS THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN BETWEEN 00-03Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES SEWD. 40 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN THE FURTHER WWD EXPECTED STORM INITIATION...THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD INTO ERN ND. CONTINUED WAA OVERNIGHT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO A MCS AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS NRN MN. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... EXTENSIVE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM SRN GA ENEWD TO FAR SRN NC. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. 30-35 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE... BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST. ..PETERS.. 07/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 00:45:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 19:45:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407190045.i6J0jVX31188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190042 SWODY1 SPC AC 190040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW IWD 35 NE MSP 30 S RWF 25 NNE 9V9 30 SSW MBG 35 NW MBG 40 WNW GFK 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 45 N MRF 30 SW 4CR 75 NNW SVC 50 E DUG ...CONT... 15 S YUM 35 SE EED 50 NNE LAS 45 N DRA 55 WSW DRA 50 NW NID 40 ENE SAC RBL 55 WNW RBL 35 SSE OTH 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10 NE MQT 20 NW LSE 20 NW OMA 45 SSW MHN 15 SSE 81V 50 NNE CPR 45 SW DGW 45 SE LIC 50 S LBL 20 NNE CDS 55 E JCT 25 SSE AUS 10 WNW SEM 40 W CSV 20 S EVV LAF 25 NNW AZO 30 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN ND WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CURRENT GRAND FORKS VWP INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 45-55KT 0-6KM SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 200-250 M2/S2. THOUGH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...COMBINATION OF MODESTLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL ND/N-CNTRL SD. DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR POSSIBLY AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN /CNTRL MN AND POSSIBLY INTO ERN SD...THOUGH CAP IS PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WITH WRN EXTENT /PER 00Z ABR SOUNDING/. ...VA/NC/SC PIEDMONT REGION... CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z RNK/GSO SOUNDINGS. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND AHEAD OF WEAK UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. PRESENCE OF 30-35KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 05:34:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 00:34:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407190534.i6J5Y0X12391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190532 SWODY1 SPC AC 190530 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MKT 30 NW OSH 45 ENE MKE 25 WSW CGX 20 N PIA OTM 55 WNW DSM 10 NE SPW 25 E MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 81V 25 WNW REJ 35 ESE DIK 15 ESE BIS 45 NE MBG 35 SSE MBG 35 WSW PHP 40 SW RAP 30 SE 81V. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN ABY 15 ESE AHN 30 SSW JKL 40 SSE MIE 25 NW HUF 55 SSW STL 30 ESE UMN 30 SW EMP 30 WNW GRI 40 SW MHN 25 SE SNY LIC 35 S EHA 40 E SJT 60 NE MFE ...CONT... 70 SSE MRF 35 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 30 SE SAD 10 WSW DUG ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 55 ENE PHX 50 NW PRC 15 SW P38 25 SE TPH 15 SW BIH 30 W TVL 25 N MHS 40 NE MFR 15 NW DLS 55 E BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NRN U.S. ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD TODAY ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS...COUPLED WITH EJECTING STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM /CURRENTLY OFF THE WA/ORE COASTS/ INTO SWRN CANADA WILL LEAD TO FLATTENING OF WRN U.S. RIDGE. IN THE E...DOMINANT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE N-CNTRL PART OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS TODAY...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL UP OF MI SWWD INTO NWRN IA BY EARLY EVENING. WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN ARC BACK TO THE NW TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN MT OR WRN SD. IN THE E...SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH TRAILING PORTIONS SAGGING SWD ACROSS SERN STATES/FL PENINSULA. ...UPPER MIDWEST... MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO WRN WI WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY OR DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER NE ALONG FRONT OVER NRN WI/UP OF MI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT DEEP-LAYER FORCING MORE INTENSE. SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE BUT STRONGER CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MN AND IA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES YIELDING 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO CLUSTERS TONIGHT WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL IL AND POSSIBLY NRN MO. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITHIN ASCENT REGION OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT/NRN WY TODAY...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING LAPSE RATES AND AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS WRN PARTS OF SD LATER TODAY WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH AXIS OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...TSTMS MOVING OUT OF NERN WY/SERN MT SHOULD INTENSIFY AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DECREASING STABILITY. DEVELOPING 30-40KT SLY LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE MOIST INFLOW AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SRN EDGE OF STORM CLUSTERS/MCS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN MT AND ND...ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY AHEAD OF TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. FORCING ALONG TAIL OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE TN VALLEY MAY AID IN AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 12:57:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 07:57:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407191257.i6JCvAX18579@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191254 SWODY1 SPC AC 191253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MKT 10 NNW AUW 10 SE GRB 25 WSW CGX 40 SE BRL 45 NNW SZL 30 SW FNB 35 W OMA 35 SE MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GCC 30 SSW MLS 10 W GDV 20 SE DIK 45 SE Y22 30 WNW PIR 50 SE RAP 50 SE 81V 25 NNE GCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN ABY 15 ESE AHN 30 SSW JKL 40 SSE MIE 25 NW HUF 55 SSW STL 30 N HRO 20 NE BVO 10 N HSI 50 WNW LBF 25 SE SNY LIC 35 S EHA 40 WSW BWD 60 NE MFE ...CONT... 70 SSE MRF 35 NNW GDP 25 N DMN 30 SE SAD 10 WSW DUG ...CONT... 70 WSW TUS 55 ENE PHX 50 NW PRC 15 SW P38 25 SE TPH 15 SW BIH 30 W TVL 25 N MHS 40 NE MFR 15 NW DLS 55 E BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 40 NW BRD 30 S FAR 45 NE BIS 55 NNW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE COMPRISED OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SENSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...THERE WILL BE FOUR FOCUSED AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE NATION. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED/D WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE IN SRN CANADA WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY THE ERN U.P OF MI SWWD TO NEAR MKC BY 20/00Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN ARC BACK NWWD TO A SFC LOW NEAR RAP AND INTO ALBERTA CANADA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN WA/ORE AND AID AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...A SLOWLY EWD MOVING SFC BOUNDARY/LOW CENTER WILL AID IN FOCUSING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SERN VA...ERN NC/SC AND SERN GA. ...UPPER MIDWEST... CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAA REGIME OVER MN/NWRN WI IS ANTICIPATED TO POSE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CINH REMAINS STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL THAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ENSUE WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER FAR SERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/REDEVELOP ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT FROM WCENTRAL WI SWWD INTO NCENTRAL IA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR EXISTING OVER CENTRAL/NERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER WCENTRAL IA/FAR SERN NEB INTO NWRN MO IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THAT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THIS AREA DESPITE SOME CINH. MLCAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA TO CENTRAL WI THAT IS MORE CERTAIN TO DEVELOP SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS THROUGH SRN IA/NERN MO AND NRN IL WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY OVER ERN MT SEWD TO NEAR A LOW CENTER NEAR RAP. VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AND A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS COMBINED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 MLCAPE BASED ON THE 12Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SERN MT/FAR NERN WY INTO SWRN ND/WRN SD. THEREFORE A SLIGHT RISK IS STILL WARRANTED IN THIS AREA. CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING CINH AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL ND/CENTRAL SD. ...ERN ORE/WA AND NRN ID... STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WA/ORE ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AID IN SOME SEVERE THREAT. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH SCENTRAL WA MAY STABILIZE NERN WA AND FAR NRN ID SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MITIGATED IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE THAT AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL EXIST BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEGREE OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ...ERN CAROLINAS/FAR SERN VA/GA... SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER NERN NC SWWD INTO ECENTRAL GA AND BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE 30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND ANTICIPATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPES...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 DEG C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE/GOSS.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 16:36:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 11:36:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407191636.i6JGaKX23413@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191634 SWODY1 SPC AC 191632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MKT 10 NNW AUW 10 SE GRB 25 WSW CGX 40 SE BRL 10 NW P35 50 NNE FNB 60 ESE SUX 35 SE MKT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE GCC 30 SSW MLS 10 W GDV 20 SE DIK 45 SE Y22 30 WNW PIR 30 ESE RAP 50 SE 81V 25 NNE GCC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI ...CONT... ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD 25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 35 SSE CNU 30 E OLU 30 S SPW 40 NNW OTG 30 NE MHE 20 NNE CDR 55 WSW CDR 25 NE CYS 45 E LAA 35 ENE LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MID WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HI PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WRN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TROUGH IN THE E SLOWLY FILLS AND SHIFTS EWD. WEAK S/WV TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS RIDGE WITH ONE CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS MT WHILE SYSTEM OFFSHORE PAC NW LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN CANADA. WEAK FRONTAL ZONE HAS SAGGED SEWD UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SRN MN WWD ACROSS SRN SD AND THEN NWWD INTO ERN MT. ...UPPER MIDWEST... AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED NE/SW ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO NRN IA. NWLY FLOW OF 35-45 KT E OF RIDGE OVER UPPER MID WEST ALONG WITH 10-20KT SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW..RESULTS IN 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE EVENING PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE ELYS ACROSS WRN SD INTO ERN MT RESULTING IN VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THIS AREA. WITH WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WRN MT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS. CLOUD COVER OVER NERN MT INTO WRN ND SHOULD FOCUS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NERN CORNER WY/SERN MT ACROSS BLACK HILLS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG. VEERING SHEAR PROFILES...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS STORMS EVOLVING INTO A POSSIBLE MCS BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SD. AGAIN EARLY PART OF CONVECTIVE PERIOD COULD SEE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL EXTEND EWD ACROSS MAINLY SD THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT. ...INTERIOR PAC NW... STRONGER SWLY FLOW MOVES INLAND AS TROUGH LIFTS INTO B.C WITH MID LEVEL SHEAR BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ERN WA/OR INTO WRN MT TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. HOWEVER SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 8C/KM...A PORTION OF THIS AREA COULD STILL BE UPGRADED IN 20Z OUTLOOK. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... A MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS ERN CAROLINAS AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF 25-30 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 20:06:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 15:06:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407192006.i6JK6GX26328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 192002 SWODY1 SPC AC 192000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW RST 15 ENE LSE 25 N MSN 20 ESE RFD 10 ENE BMI 20 SSW SPI 30 S UIN 30 ESE P35 25 WSW DSM 25 N FOD 30 WSW RST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S 4BQ 25 N MLS 25 W SDY 40 NNE DIK 40 NE Y22 30 WNW PIR 30 ESE RAP 50 SE 81V 20 S 4BQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 30 N HLN 10 ENE DLN 50 NE SUN 50 SSE BOI 60 WSW BOI 35 SSW BKE 45 ENE BKE 45 SSE S06 45 NNW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD 25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 35 SSE CNU 30 E OLU 30 S SPW 40 NNW OTG 30 NE MHE 20 E VTN 50 SW MHN 45 ESE AKO 40 NE LAA 35 ENE LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...MID MS VALLEY... ELEVATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION APPEAR TO BE ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SERN MN/NERN IA/SWRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES SWD ALONG EDGE OF STRONG CAP. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST ERN IA WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS FOR AN EVOLVING MCS THAT MAY PROPAGATE INTO NERN PORTIONS OF MO/WCNTRL IL LATER THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO A NW-SE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER EXTREME SERN MT...TURNING MORE ESEWD AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL MT...INTO WRN ND. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DEEPEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...POSSIBLY JUST WEST OF UPPER VORT MAX...THEN SPREAD SEWD TOWARD STRONGER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WA/ORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM ERN ORE INTO WRN MT. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. IT APPEARS A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 00:45:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 19:45:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407200045.i6K0jBX12410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200042 SWODY1 SPC AC 200041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 4BQ 45 S GDV 45 ESE GDV 10 ENE DIK 40 NE Y22 25 SSW MBG 50 SSE PHP 45 SSW RAP 30 ESE 4BQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 35 S GTF 20 NW WEY 15 SSW MLD 40 SE OWY 90 NNW WMC 40 NNE BNO 20 WNW PDT 45 NNW ALW 35 N 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BRD 20 SE DLH 15 SSE IWD 50 SSW ESC 30 WNW MKG 25 NNE CGX 25 S RFD 30 SE DBQ 30 SE RST 10 W MSP 30 ESE BRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 N MFR 45 E SLE 40 SSE SEA 10 NNE BLI ...CONT... 25 ESE IPL 50 ESE EED 25 NNW IGM 35 NNE LAS 25 NW DRA 65 SE BIH 40 NE FAT 40 ENE SAC 35 NNE SAC 55 SSE UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PFN 25 WSW VLD 25 NNW AYS 35 SSE AGS 25 NNE AHN 30 WSW HSS 10 S 5I3 UNI MFD 10 N LAF 20 NNW SLO 40 WNW POF 40 NE HRO 50 ENE CNU 10 NW OMA 25 WNW OLU 15 NNW EAR 10 S LBF 50 N IML 45 SE SNY 45 ESE AKO 40 NE LAA 35 ENE LBL 60 NNW ABI 10 NE HDO 60 SSE LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN ROCKIES... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN NV INTO ID. SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ID IN ADDITION TO CONCENTRATED REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER MUCH OF ID INTO SWRN MT ARE INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HERE...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO MLCIN. MOREOVER...45-55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ID INTO WRN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 1738. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN AND W-CNTRL SD ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH IN NRN/NWRN QUADRANT OF COMPACT VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING EWD INTO WRN SD. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN SD SEWD INTO NWRN IA/ ALONG AXIS OF DEVELOPING 25-35KT SLY LLJ. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... BAND OF TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS FROM THE UP OF MI WWD ACROSS NRN WI INTO NERN MN ALONG AND S OF NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THAT SAME GENERAL AREA. WEAK IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING SWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR IS ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL WI ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION. 00Z DVN SOUNDING INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUSTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL REMAIN OVER NRN INTO CNTRL WI WHERE AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT CAP IS WEAKER. ..MEAD.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 05:18:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 00:18:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407200518.i6K5IoX19495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200516 SWODY1 SPC AC 200514 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 50 SSE DLH MSN 40 NW CGX 30 NE BMI 35 E UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NNW OMA 30 NW YKN 50 NNW ABR 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE FHU 45 WNW SAD 15 WSW FLG 30 W P38 65 N BIH 35 SSE NFL 20 SE WMC 85 WNW OWY 55 W BKE 25 ESE GEG 50 NE 63S ...CONT... 35 NW CTY 40 SSW AGS 30 NNW SOP 20 WNW ROA 30 SE JKL 45 NNW CSV 10 NE HOP 20 N ARG 25 NNW HRO 40 SSW OJC 20 NNE EMP 25 WNW HUT 40 W P28 50 E LBB P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL FLATTEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS SRN CANADA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN SD WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO MN LATER TODAY WITH STRONGER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE /NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/ SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE WRN SD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SWD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER SERN SD/NERN NEB AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STALLED ACROSS NERN NEB INTO NRN IA WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE W. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF EWD-MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PERSISTENT CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS IA WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F WILL OCCUR WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF SLY/SWLY LLJ. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL MIXING...MAINTAINING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT AIRMASS S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-3500 J/KG. INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON OVER ERN SD INTO WRN MN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS /GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST INVOF RETREATING BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WHICH IS FORECAST ACROSS IA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO W-CNTRL INTO NWRN MN. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE S...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY ALONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED TERRAIN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SRN EDGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. THOUGH VEERED LOW-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. 40-50KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 13:00:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 08:00:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407201300.i6KD0uX06862@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201258 SWODY1 SPC AC 201256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 50 SSE DLH 10 NW MSN 35 WNW CGX 30 ENE BMI 35 E UIN 20 NW IRK 30 NNW OMA 40 WNW YKN 50 E MBG 70 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CTY 55 S AGS 30 NNW SOP 20 WNW ROA 30 SE JKL 45 NNW CSV 35 WSW HOP 35 N TXK 15 SE MLC 40 SSW OJC 20 NNE EMP 25 WNW HUT 40 W P28 50 E LBB P07 ...CONT... 15 SE FHU 45 WNW SAD 15 WSW FLG 30 W P38 65 N BIH 35 SSE NFL 20 SE WMC 85 WNW OWY 55 W BKE 25 ESE GEG 50 NE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS WRN U.S. TROUGH WEAKENS AND ERN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. MEANWHILE...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WWD INTO CA AND EWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS TO THE N OF WEAK / DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WRN GULF. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE / INCREASINGLY ZONAL WLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW IS INDICATED ACROSS S CENTRAL SD ATTM...WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXTENDS NWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO A SECOND / SOMEWHAT DEEPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH TIME...THIS COMPLEX TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA / THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT TO EVOLVE / MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD. MAIN AREA OF SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED LOWS / FRONTS. ...N CENTRAL CONUS... AS WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN KS / SRN NEB RETREATS NWD AND DUAL-CENTERED LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA / THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE RED RIVER / MID MO / UPPER MS VALLEYS SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WEAK STORMS NOW ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP / INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / NEB EWD INTO MN / IA. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FEATURES MAKE A PRECISE FORECAST OF LOCATIONS OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT ATTM...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATEST THREAT SHOULD EXIST GENERALLY ALONG NRN / ERN FRINGES OF WEAK LOW FORECAST BY THE ETA ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NEB / SD DURING THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SLY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH 25 TO 30 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY NEAR WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEB / SD LOW. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AND MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING WHERE MOIST / MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND RETREATING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE ANY STRONGER STORM...THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ...NRN ROCKIES... MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS ID / NV -- AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL...POCKETS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN ID ENEWD ACROSS NWRN WY / SRN MT. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40 KT WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE INTENSE / SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. ..GOSS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 16:33:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 11:33:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407201633.i6KGXCX10379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201630 SWODY1 SPC AC 201628 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ELO 50 SSE DLH 25 ESE OSH 30 WNW BEH 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 25 NW IRK 30 S OMA GRI 40 ENE ANW 20 NNW HON 35 WNW JMS 75 NE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 15 SSW AYS 40 W SAV 45 W AGS 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 NNW GSO 20 NNE PSK 35 NE 5I3 15 NNE LEX 25 S CKV 30 SE PGO 15 ESE MLC 40 SSW OJC 20 NNE EMP 25 SW MHK 40 W END 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN GBN 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 40 SW U31 10 NNE BAM 95 NNW WMC 30 ENE BNO 20 WNW BKE 35 SE ALW 20 E LWS 25 WSW S06 50 NW 3TH 35 S 4OM 70 WNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKS ACROSS THE CORN BELT/MN INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... ...ERN DAKS/MID-MO VLY EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY... MESOSCALE FEATURES REMAIN RATHER WEAK LATE THIS MORNING. DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONTS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL IA NWWD ALONG THE MO RVR VLY AND ALSO FROM CNTRL WI NWWD INTO SERN MANITOBA. KEY FOCUS IS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN-MOST BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MID-MO RVR VLY. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DUAL VORT MAXIMA MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKS. NRN IMPULSE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE RED RVR VLY INTO NRN/CNTRL MN DURING PEAK HEATING. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE...THOUGH PATCHES OF MID-LAYER CLOUD MAY INHIBIT STRONG DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MN THROUGH EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONGER TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MN INTO NRN WI WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL. HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY VALUES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT. HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. STRONGEST HEATING/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN NERN NEB...NWRN IA...ERN SD AND SWRN MN. NEAR 70 DEGREES F SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG. AS TAIL END OF THE SRN-MOST VORT MAX MOVES INTO THE REGION...CAP SHOULD ERODE AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN WEAK...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF AN ISOLD TORNADO...PARTICULARLY VCNTY SURFACE LOW/ WARM FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA. HOWEVER...LCLS WILL BE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 6000 FEET AGL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IA OR SRN MN AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES. THIS MAY CARRY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREATS INTO THE UPPER MS VLY VERY LATE TONIGHT. LASTLY...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH THIS FAR EAST...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DESPITE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...INCREASINGLY DRY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CBS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENTRAIN THE DRIER AIR. ...NRN GREAT BASIN... AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TODAY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. PRESENCE OF MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND 30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ..RACY/JEWELL.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 19:38:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 14:38:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407201938.i6KJcKX20244@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201934 SWODY1 SPC AC 201932 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 10 E CGX 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 20 NNW BBW 25 NNE VTN 40 NE PIR 25 ENE BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 15 W AND 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 10 ENE CKV 35 ENE JBR 25 SW UNO 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 15 E BNO 35 SE ALW 45 NNE S80 30 E 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... ...GREAT LAKES... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1739. COMBINATION OF LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WI INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE NUMEROUS AS LAKE BREEZES REMAIN ACTIVE...HOWEVER PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REMAIN NEAR FRONT PRONOUNCED IN CU FIELD FROM NEAR MSP INTO SRN U.P. OF MI. HERE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION. COMBINED EFFECTS OF FURTHER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW RAPID THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FROM S-CENTRAL SD/N-CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN MN BETWEEN 21-00Z. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1740/. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE EXPECT A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THROUGH THE MID EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD UPWARDS INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED AND SWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES. ...ERN TX PANHANDLE... RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED /PER OBSERVED 18Z AMA AND RUC-FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK. THUS...STRONGER CELLS AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED/PULSE IN NATURE. ..EVANS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 21:23:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 16:23:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407202123.i6KLNnX08161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 202103 SWODY1 SPC AC 202101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 202100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 10 E CGX 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 20 NNW BBW 25 NNE VTN 45 N RAP 55 NNW REJ 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 15 W AND 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 10 ENE CKV 35 ENE JBR 25 SW UNO 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 15 E BNO 35 SE ALW 45 NNE S80 30 E 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY... AMENDED TO EXTEND SLGT RISK ACROSS WRN ND .....AMENDED AREA... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1741. DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING INCREASING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO WRN ND ATTM. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ND THIS EVENING... STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. .....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..... ...GREAT LAKES... REFERENCE SWOMCD 1739. COMBINATION OF LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION AND DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WI INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE NUMEROUS AS LAKE BREEZES REMAIN ACTIVE...HOWEVER PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REMAIN NEAR FRONT PRONOUNCED IN CU FIELD FROM NEAR MSP INTO SRN U.P. OF MI. HERE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS. ...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/SWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION. COMBINED EFFECTS OF FURTHER HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW RAPID THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FROM S-CENTRAL SD/N-CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN MN BETWEEN 21-00Z. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1740/. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE EXPECT A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA THROUGH THE MID EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD UPWARDS INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED AND SWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES. ...ERN TX PANHANDLE... RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCV WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED /PER OBSERVED 18Z AMA AND RUC-FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK. THUS...STRONGER CELLS AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED/PULSE IN NATURE. ..EVANS.. 07/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 00:35:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 19:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407210036.i6L0aTX14756@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210032 SWODY1 SPC AC 210030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 35 SE CGX 20 W DNV 20 WNW DEC 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 10 W BUB 25 NNE VTN 30 ENE PHP 65 N PHP 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 45 W BOI 20 SE 27U 15 SSW MSO 20 ESE 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 30 NNW AGS 10 S SPA CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 40 NE OWB 40 SE MVN 35 SSW BLV 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES... ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATED N-S ORIENTED PRESSURE TROUGH /DELIMITING HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS/ FROM CNTRL ND SWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND THEN INTO WRN KS. STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY ATTM WAS CO-LOCATED INVOF SURFACE LOWS OVER CNTRL ND AND SERN SD/NERN NEB WITHIN REGIONS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. COPIOUS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE MO VALLEY NWD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4500 J/KG /PER 00Z OMA SOUNDING/. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. REGION IS BETWEEN STRONGER FLOW CHANNELS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN IA/WI AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND THE EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL IA SHOULD MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA OVERNIGHT. FOR SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ON ERN ND PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK...PLEASE REFER TO MCD 1745. FARTHER W...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE NEB PNHDL WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. LOCAL AIRMASS IS COMPARATIVELY DRIER...BUT HOTTER THAN ENVIRONMENT TO THE E...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES... THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES ARE MORE WEAKLY DEFINED THAN PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS WI AND ERN IA. COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER 00Z DVN AND GRB SOUNDINGS/ AND THE PRESENCE OF 30-35KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING INVOF OF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG /REF 00Z LBF AND DDC SOUNDINGS/. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WILL EXIST OWING SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MERGING COLD POOLS. ISOLATED...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ..MEAD.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 05:36:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 00:36:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407210536.i6L5a3X15268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210534 SWODY1 SPC AC 210532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SSE PIT 30 SSE LUK 20 NW UIN 50 WNW CNK 25 NNW EAR 30 WSW MSP 40 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA BIH SAC 10 S RBL 10 SE LMT 55 ESE BNO 45 NW SUN 15 NE MQM BIL 10 NE RAP 15 NNE BKX 40 NNE FAR 30 WSW P24 55 SE HVR 50 NW FCA ...CONT... 65 WNW MFE 50 ENE COT 40 E AUS 30 NNW POE 20 W BTR 30 N BVE ...CONT... 60 SSE CTY AYS AHN CHA 15 N ARG 60 N JLN 35 NNW END 30 ENE LBB 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 30 E AUG 35 NW GFL 35 SSW IPT 35 WSW MRB 20 NW LYH 45 N RWI 25 SE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH A BELT MODERATELY STRONG WINDS SPREADING EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ANALYZED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE /NOW OVER SRN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA/ BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...NRN EXTENSION OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT /INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/ WILL PUSH EWD TODAY AND WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO ERN CO BY EARLY EVENING. ...GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY... CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND SHORT-TERM NWP DATA SUGGEST A COMPLEX SCENARIO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MCS /THE EARLY STAGE OF WHICH MAY BE EVOLVING OVER SRN MN/ AS IT MOVES EWD TODAY...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC FRONT ITSELF. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN STORM CLUSTERS/FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS EWD ACROSS WI...LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI TODAY. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...CONTINUOUS FEED OF MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ALONG WSWLY 20-30KT LLJ SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG SRN FLANK OF SYSTEM. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY WELL BE FOCUSED ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT /OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/ AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ANTICIPATED MCS /OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES OR NWRN OH VALLEY/. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...IA/NEB SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG IA/NEB PORTION OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM STORM CLUSTERS MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL NEB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONG /I.E. 20-30KTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM/...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. MOST INTENSE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE A FEW HIGH-BASED....STRONG STORMS INVOF THESE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL. ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 13:00:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 08:00:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407211300.i6LD0PX19754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211258 SWODY1 SPC AC 211256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 20 NW UIN 60 WNW CNK 25 WNW EAR 25 E YKN 30 NNE MKT 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 15 SSE LMT 45 W BOI 55 WSW MQM 20 E BIL RAP 35 W PIR 25 SSW ATY 30 ENE ATY 40 NNE FAR 55 N BIS 75 WSW GGW 30 S HVR 50 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 35 E VLD 45 NW SAV 40 WNW FLO 15 WNW RWI 20 SE ORF ...CONT... 40 ESE AUG 30 NW GFL 40 NW CXY 20 S PSK 50 SSW TYS 30 ENE MKL 30 WNW SGF 35 NNW END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDDLE MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER / WEAKLY CYCLONIC WLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS / ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS STRONGER BELT OF FLOW...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE THREAT FORECAST TO MOVE FROM IA / MN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO / WRN MN SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD WITH TIME. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM WI / IA SWWD INTO KS / SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / LOWER LAKES... CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS SERN MN / NERN IA INTO SWRN WI / NWRN IL ATTM...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING / AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...WITH WLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUPPLYING HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THIS REGION. MODERATELY-STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WI / IL INTO LOWER MI / IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING AHEAD OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY / LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT...LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS WRN PA / WRN NY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ASSUMING AIRMASS CAN RECOVER. SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS. ...MIDDLE MO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS AS AIRMASS RECOVERY / DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. GREATEST INSTABILITY -- AS WELL AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- IS FORECAST FROM SRN MN / IA SWWD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. SHEAR / INSTABILITY COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN MN / IA...WHERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST. FURTHER SWWD ACROSS KS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS -- AS FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONGER / MULTICELL STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL THREAT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE STORMS SHOULD BE HIGHER-BASED. ..GOSS.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 16:16:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 11:16:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407211615.i6LGFtX10725@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211613 SWODY1 SPC AC 211611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLI 30 WSW RFD 30 SSW MKE 40 SW MKG GRR 20 NNE LAN 25 SE FNT 25 SE DTW 10 W FDY 30 NE MIE 10 WNW LAF 25 N CMI 15 ENE PIA 35 SE MLI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 20 NW UIN 50 W CNK 15 SSE EAR 25 SSE SUX 30 WNW RST 50 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 15 SSE LMT 45 W BOI 55 WSW MQM 45 NW LND 55 N DGW 45 NNE RAP 25 SSE Y22 40 ENE Y22 40 E DIK 30 NW GDV 50 ENE LWT 50 NE MSO 45 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SYR 15 WSW ELM 10 ENE PSB 10 S MGW 15 WSW CRW 20 NNE LOZ 30 ESE BWG 30 ENE MKL 45 WSW MEM 10 S LIT 35 ESE FSM 15 SE FYV 25 SSW UMN 20 ESE JLN 35 NNW JLN 15 SSE CNU 40 NNW BVO 30 NW PNC 45 W END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES EXCLUDING THE MDT RISK AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPING CENTRAL CANADA WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY TODAY. RESULT IN CONUS WILL BE A BAND OF STRONG WLYS...60KT AT 500MB/80-90 KT AT 300MB SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN MS VALLEY INTO UPR GREAT LAKES. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND MN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO NWRN KS. ADDITIONALLY MCV THAT ORIGINATED FROM OVERNIGHT MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN IA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEPARATE MID LEVEL WIND MAX. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL BY 12Z ETA AND TRACKS EWD TO ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... VERY MOIST/PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES/ AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS/MLCAPES BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM 2500-3500 J/KG...WILL FUEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MCV. THIS ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WINDS. CAP AT 16Z ABOUT GONE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN PORTION OF MDT RISK AREA...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WI SWWD TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT VS THE MDT RISK AREA. REF MCD 1750 ..HALES.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 19:43:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 14:43:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407211942.i6LJgsX11772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211940 SWODY1 SPC AC 211939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MLI 30 WSW RFD 30 SSW MKE 40 SW MKG GRR 20 NNE LAN 25 SE FNT 25 SE DTW 10 W FDY 30 NE MIE 10 WNW LAF 25 N CMI 15 ENE PIA 35 SE MLI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW ROC 20 SE HLG 25 S LUK 15 NNE COU 20 WSW SLN 25 SSW HSI 35 N FNB 25 NE OTM 25 NNW DBQ GRB 40 NNW PLN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW INL 50 SW DLH 25 ENE MKT 15 SSW OTG 25 ESE 9V9 40 NE PIR 50 WNW ABR 15 SSW FAR 35 SE GFK 35 NW GFK 65 NNW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 40 ESE IGM 35 ENE DRA 10 S BIH SAC 10 SSW RBL 10 E MFR 55 S RDM 55 WSW MQM 45 NW LND 55 N DGW 45 NNE RAP 25 SSE Y22 40 ENE Y22 40 E DIK 20 NNW GDV 55 E LWT 50 N 3DU 45 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SYR 15 WSW ELM 10 ENE PSB 10 S MGW 15 WSW CRW 20 NNE LOZ 30 ESE BWG 30 ENE MKL 45 WSW MEM 10 S LIT 35 ESE FSM 15 SE FYV 25 SSW UMN 20 ESE JLN 35 NNW JLN 15 SSE CNU 40 NNW BVO 30 NW PNC 45 W END 25 SSW CDS 30 SE SJT 45 NNW SAT 35 NE AUS 50 SSE SHV 30 NW MCB 30 E GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH SSI. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL INTO SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM NERN KS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...EWD INTO WRN PA/NY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN... ...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI... REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE DRIFTED INTO ERN IA WHERE A DECAYING MVC HAS ALL BUT LOST ITS IDENTITY. LEADING EDGE OF DEBRIS FIELD SHOULD WITH TIME BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOSTLY UNCAPPED WITH STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALOFT...PER 18Z SOUNDINGS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO IT APPEARS AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE TREND IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SERN WI INTO SRN LOWER LAKE MI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD INTO IL THEN SURGE EWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE...MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000J/KG FROM SRN IL INTO NWRN IND. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EVOLVING MCS SHOULD EMERGE BY EARLY EVENING AS COMPLEX SPREADS EWD AFTER DARK. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN... VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED A MORE SLY COMPONENT...ALBEIT WEAK...TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN SD INTO MN. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER FLOW REGIME IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT SPREAD FROM SD INTO MN THIS EVENING. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS NERN ND INTO NWRN MN. LOCAL HAIL ALGORITHMS ON 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM SRN MANITOBA SUGGEST HAIL MAY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 07/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 13:07:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 08:07:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407221307.i6MD7bX12495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221305 SWODY1 SPC AC 221303 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ILM 20 SSE FAY 20 WSW RWI 50 NE RWI DCA 10 NW PHL 10 SSE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SNY 10 SE OLU 15 NNW MLI 30 NNE MMO 35 N DNV 10 S MTO ALN EMP HUT GCK 20 WSW LAA PUB 25 N DEN 35 SW SNY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 25 ENE IGM 25 WNW SGU 65 NW P38 20 SSE TPH 40 NNE NID 60 ESE FAT 10 NNW SAC 55 NW RBL 45 NNW MFR 25 SW RDM 55 S BKE 15 WNW S80 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 40 SE GTF 40 ENE 4BQ 45 NNW PHP 35 N OTG 30 ENE RST 25 NNE MTW 10 S PLN 75 ESE ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE HUL 20 ESE 3B1 15 E MWN BAF 25 ENE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MEM 40 NW LIT 35 ENE FSM 50 NW FYV 30 E BVO 25 W BVO 30 N OKC 25 NE LTS 25 SSW CDS 50 SSE LBB 25 SW BGS 55 SW SJT 20 NW JCT 55 W TPL 60 SW TYR 30 ENE SHV 35 ENE MLU JAN 15 NNE MEI 15 SSW TCL 35 WNW BHM 20 ENE MSL 35 N MSL 15 SW MKL 40 W MEM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN IA / NRN MO / IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO OCCUR AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GREAT LAKES / NRN PLAINS...ON THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN LK MI SWWD ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN NEB / NRN KS. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY / SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD INTO SRN IA / NRN MO / CENTRAL IL... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INVOF WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD / SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INVOF BOUNDARY -- WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMA E OF ONGOING MID MO VALLEY STORMS AND ACROSS ERN CO / WRN KS / SRN MO IN ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF BOUNDARY. DESPITE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS KS / CO AND PERHAPS INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLES...AS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING -- WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING N AND E OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ...COASTAL VA / NC AND THE DELMARVA REGION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH IN MOIST / DESTABILIZING AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE OVER THIS REGION GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW...VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...KY / MID OH VALLEY REGION... STORMS AHEAD OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ERN KY...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WEAKENS S AND E OF THIS CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THIS CLUSTER ACROSS THE LOWER / MID OH VALLEY REGION...FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. ...SWRN NM / SERN AZ... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN AZ / SWRN NM COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NELY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SPREADING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO SERN AZ WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..GOSS.. 07/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 16:35:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 11:35:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407221635.i6MGZbX14463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221633 SWODY1 SPC AC 221631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW SNY 20 WSW LNK 25 WSW MLI 45 W FWA 30 WSW LUK 10 WNW SDF ALN EMP HUT GCK 20 WSW LAA PUB 25 N DEN 35 SW SNY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ILM 30 W OAJ RWI 50 NE RWI 10 E DCA 10 NW PHL 20 S NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PIE 25 N MLB ...CONT... 15 NNE JAX 35 NE MGR 10 WSW MCN 10 NNW AHN 45 WSW CHA 25 NW DYR 60 ESE HRO 45 WSW JLN 30 WNW BVO 30 NW CSM 40 S CVS 15 SE HOB 20 SSE MAF 15 N BWD 35 WNW TXK 50 NNE MLU 40 WSW CBM 20 SW TCL 30 S MOB ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 S ALB 15 SW POU 15 SW JFK ...CONT... 50 ENE HVR BIL 15 S SHR 45 NW CDR 15 NNE VTN 30 E MCW 35 NW MKG 35 NNE HTL 45 NNE APN ...CONT... 75 SE YUM 15 SW GBN 60 NNW GBN 10 SSW IGM 50 NNW DRA 30 ENE BIH 25 SW BIH 40 NNE FAT 55 SSW SVE 15 NE MHS 45 NNE LMT 60 NNE 4LW 40 SW BOI 45 WNW TWF 25 NW TWF 35 W SUN 55 NNW BOI 40 SSW S80 25 SSW S06 70 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID SUMMER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS DELIVERING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NRN CONUS E OF ROCKIES. COLD FRONT MOVING SWD CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NRN LWR MI WSWWD ACROSS WI INTO CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CENTRAL U.S. HAS SURFACE BOUNDARIES WELL S OF FRONTAL LOCATION FROM IA/MO BORDER WSWWD ACROSS NRN KS INTO ERN CO. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO S OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND FRONT MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TO OH VALLEY... THE POOL OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS CENTERED TODAY FROM MID MS VALLEY TO S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS IL AND IN. SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS WARM SECTOR ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MID LEVEL FLOW MOST AREAS 20-30 KT. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S...MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE STORM INITIATION BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM AND WARM MID LEVELS...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SEWD INTO SRN LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THERE IS SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS WHICH WILL ENHANCE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL WEAKEN STORMS. UPSLOPE DEVELOPS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD TO FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO N OF COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8C/KM...FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 10-20 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORMS WITH ENOUGH VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PULSE SEVERE HAIL/WIND WITH SMALL CHANCE OF BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD BE THE LIMIT OF THE THREAT TODAY. ...MID ATLANTIC COAST... NLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF OFF SHORE UPPER LOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER S/SWLY FLOW...RESULTS IN 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WITH HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE PULSE STORMS. CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE OLD BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CURRENTLY DISSIPATING CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INLAND. ...SERN AZ... WHILE A GULF SURGE WILL BE ENTERING SRN AZ TODAY...EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL NELY STEERING FLOW AND MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH AROUND 8C/KM LAPSE RATES FAVOR A FEW STORMS PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE HIGH LCL LEVEL AROUND 10K FEET. ...S TX... WEAK UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS S TX...PUTTING MUCH OF THIS AREA UNDER 20-25 KT SLY FLOW OF A MOIST...VERY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND. ..HALES/LEVIT.. 07/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 01:06:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 20:06:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407230106.i6N16QX26414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230103 SWODY1 SPC AC 230102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CLE CAK ZZV UNI JKL 35 N TYS CSV BNA 35 WSW HOP 25 ENE PAH 35 SW OWB 15 NNE BWG 40 SSE SDF 50 ESE IND 15 NNE TOL 45 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 65 NW GBN IGM LAS DRA 50 NW NID FAT TVL 75 ESE 4LW BOI S80 S06 3TH 40 SSW FCA HLN BIL SHR 40 ENE 81V RAP 30 NE AIA SNY 50 NW GLD 40 SW EAR OLU FRM EAU VOK JVL FWA 60 NNE MTC ...CONT... SSI AGS ATL HSV MKL UMN BVO CSM ELP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE EFK POU JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S FMY 55 W MIA 50 S MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF FST 50 E BGS ABI PBF CBM 20 S PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN TN TO NRN OH... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NRN CONUS -- FROM NRN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND -- ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY AREA VORTEX. WEAK UPPER LOW PERSISTS OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM ERN QUE SWWD ACROSS ERN ONT...INDIANA...CENTRAL MO...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND DIFFUSE AMIDST CONVECTIVE PROCESSES OVER ERN CO. ...OH VALLEY REGION... REF REMAINING PORTIONS SPC WW 668 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST GUIDANCE REGARDING BROKEN COMPLEX OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT -- FROM SERN LOWER MI TO CENTRAL/WRN KY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL/ERN KY AND PERHAPS NRN TN BEFORE WEAKENING. OH CONVECTION HAS GREATEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. OBSERVED MLCAPES IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE -- AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND BETWEEN ILN-BNA -- SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING WITH SFC DIABATIC COOLING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... LOSS OF INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF BOTH DIABATIC COOLING AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW POOLS...COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW AND SHEAR IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...INDICATES ORGANIZED SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS ENTIRE REGION BELOW THRESHOLDS NECESSARY FOR CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MULTICELLS WILL MEANDER ERRATICALLY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND CENTRAL KS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY NON-SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SEWD FROM ERN CO ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. ..DEEP S TX... UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN PREVAILING ELYS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WWD OVER NERN MEX...CONTRIBUTING TO GEN TSTM POTENTIAL PORTIONS S TX AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITHIN THAT REGION...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AMIDST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND WEAK STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR CATEGORICAL RISK. ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 06:05:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 01:05:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407230605.i6N65OX15449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230602 SWODY1 SPC AC 230600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 45 SSE SGU SGU P38 55 WNW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT SAC 35 SW LMT 55 WSW BNO 35 NW BKE LWS 3TH GTF MLS 35 N REJ 30 WNW PHP 30 NE MHN OFK 45 WNW DSM UIN HUF DAY CAK BFD 15 NE ROC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ONE MORE DAY OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FCST FROM NRN ROCKIES TO NEW ENGLAND -- ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY AREA CYCLONE -- BEFORE NRN STREAM DEAMPLIFICATION ENSUES. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER GREAT LAKES DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS CANADIAN VORTEX FILLS AND PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES ONT THEN EJECTS AWAY FROM LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SERN ONT SWWD ACROSS SRN IL TO WRN KS -- IS EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED AND MOVE EWD TOWARD COASTAL NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC BY 24/12Z. FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...AND DRIFT SWD OVER OZARKS AND S-CENTRAL PLAINS. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY FORM OVER WRN OK OR ERN TX PANHANDLE...HOWEVER...MORE SPECIFIC CHARACTER OF BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL BE STRONGLY CONDITIONAL ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION/INFLUENCES OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NOW OVER WRN KS/SERN CO/NERN NM AND OK PANHANDLE. THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM OZARKS ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION TO NERN NM...WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT CONTRIBUTING ON W END OF AREA. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES SHOULD RISE TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE ROUGHLY E OF I-35...AIDED BY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND STRONG INSOLATION. MLCAPE WILL LESSEN WWD TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AGAINST NRN NM MOUNTAINS...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS IN NM AND TX/OK PANHANDLES. EARLY/DISCRETE CELLS WILL EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WEAKNESS OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE RISK OF SEVERE IS NOT INTENSE OR CONCENTRATED ENOUGH YET TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WITH BRIEF/MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE FROM CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BEING MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT IS OVER PORTIONS ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND...ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN VORTEX ALOFT. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THIS REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT OF PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIMITING CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH CAPPING ALSO EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...TSTMS SHOULD FROM INVOF SFC FRONT BY AFTERNOON -- PERHAPS FORMING A BROKEN BAND WITH STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GUSTS. DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...INSOLATION IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE POCKETS MAY RAISE CAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG LOCALLY...BASED ON SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 12:59:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 07:59:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407231259.i6NCxBX10438@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231257 SWODY1 SPC AC 231255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU 30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 15 N SAC 35 WSW LMT 25 W BNO 40 SE ALW 10 NE 3TH 40 WNW GTF 30 NNW MLS 50 SW DIK 30 ENE MHN 40 W OFK 35 NNW OMA 50 WNW DSM 20 W UIN 20 ESE MTO 20 SE DAY 20 NE CMH 10 ESE YNG 20 NE ERI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS... THIS MORNING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN NM NEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...NRN OK...SRN MO AND BEYOND. THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NE NM HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL KS SWWD INTO NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV THAT IS CENTERED OVER SWRN KS AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NRN OK INTO SRN KS WHERE DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE MCV NOW OVER SWRN KS. WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING WILL PERSIST ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...NERN U.S.... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A STRONGER FLOW REGIME IN PART OF THIS AREA THAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NATION WITH 25-35 KT BETWEEN 2 AND 5 KM OVER NRN ME. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW. COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY E TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION IS OVER ME WHERE ONLY LOW CLOUDS EXIST. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION AND MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA APPEARS LIMITED. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 16:13:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 11:13:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407231612.i6NGCrX11704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231610 SWODY1 SPC AC 231608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU 30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 40 NNE SAC 30 ENE MHS 65 SE BNO 45 S S80 40 ESE 3TH 65 NNW REJ 25 N RAP 10 S AIA 40 ESE AKO 50 E LAA 20 ENE GCK RSL 30 W BIE 35 SE OMA 25 SSE DSM 15 SSW UIN 30 SW HUF 25 NNW LUK 25 WNW ZZV 25 SW FKL 35 NNE BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS... SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MO AND INTO NWRN OK WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH HAS SHIFTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WELL SWD INTO WEAK WLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON...MARGINAL SHEAR DUE TO WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY. MUCH OF THE MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER...AREA FROM WRN INTO NRN OK AND SRN KS/SRN MO APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR NEARER SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST... LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES...AS BREAKS CONTINUE/EXPAND IN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES AND FREEZING/WBZ LEVELS ARE WEAK THIS MORNING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF-LIVED WIND DAMAGE. ...AZ... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST SAT IMAGERY INDICATE RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS AZ. THOUGH AREA REMAINS UNDER EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH ATTENDANT WEAK FLOW...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TODAY. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENT NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 20:01:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 15:01:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407232001.i6NK15X10000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231959 SWODY1 SPC AC 231957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S YUM 45 SSE SGU 30 NW SGU 50 W P38 40 NW DRA 55 S BIH 25 WNW FAT 15 SSE RBL MFR 55 SE EUG 40 ESE RDM 60 WSW BOI 30 ENE BOI 40 NE S80 30 N MSO 15 NE HLN 50 SSE BIL 20 NW CPR 50 NNW BFF 30 NNE SNY 15 N LAA 15 WSW EHA 20 SE LBL 25 E DDC 30 WSW MHK 10 WSW STJ 35 S IRK 15 W BLV 20 NE EVV 40 SSE LUK 25 E PKB 30 NNE PSB 30 NNW PBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN VA TO WRN ME... NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM NRN VA INTO NRN VT. THIS ZONE SHOULD CONVECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. A NEGATIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE APPARENT WEAKNESS IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PARTLY DUE TO THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THROUGH PEAK HEATING A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL. ...SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY... WEAK MVC IS SHEARING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL KS WITH A SLOWLY DECREASING SHIELD OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF KS. SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...SFC FRONT HAS BEEN FORCED INTO WRN-NRN PORTIONS OF OK WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE UNSTABLE...SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION TO GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MUCH OF OK...AR...AND NWRN TX SHOULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. ...AZ... CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE EVOLVED OVER SERN AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS FAVOR SLOW PROPAGATION OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS LOWER DESERTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DOWNBURSTS APPEARS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF STATE IN PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 07/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 00:41:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 19:41:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407240040.i6O0ehX04099@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240038 SWODY1 SPC AC 240036 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE IPL EED CDC 35 NNE P38 50 W P38 TPH 30 WNW BIH 40 ENE SCK SVE WMC BOI S80 S06 45 NE MSO LWT MLS REJ SHR DGW SNY LAA EHA LBL DDC SLN MKC VIH OWB LEX HTS CRW SSU ROA SHD MRB HGR 40 NW RUT 3B1 35 NE CAR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...NRN STREAM PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX...AND EXTENDING FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FIELD. ANOTHER PERTURBATION NOW APPARENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NERN WY SHOULD DRIFT EWD INTO NRN STREAM TONIGHT. SFC FRONTAL ZONE -- ANALYZED FROM ERN NY SWWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND OZARKS REGIONS INTO ERN NM -- IS FCST TO MOVE TO COASTAL MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z...AND TO DRIFT GENERALLY SWD ELSEWHERE. ...PIEDMONT/TIDEWATER FROM MD-NC... FRONTAL LINE OF PRIMARILY NONSEVERE TSTMS -- LOCATED AT 00Z FROM NRN MD SWWD ACROSS VA PIEDMONT -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SEWD TOWARD TIDEWATER AREA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 4Z...PARTICULARLY SRN PORTION...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL SCALE LIFT. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ONLY AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM...UNSUITABLE FOR DAMAGING HAIL GENERATION IN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MD 70S ANALYZED ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN NC CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN SHORT TERM FCST SOUNDINGS. WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE ANY SEVERE GUST THREAT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. ...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS... SCATTERED TSTMS IN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...PRODUCING BRIEF/ISOLATED GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BECAUSE OF WEAKENED BUOYANCY RELATED TO BOTH SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS AND DIABATIC/RADIATIONAL COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED...AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE. AS IN ERN CONUS DISCUSSION AREA...WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR FIELDS PRECLUDE THREAT OF MORE THAN BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS DURING REMAINDER EVENING. ...AZ... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF MINOR DAMAGE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WELL-ORGANIZED OR VERY CONCENTRATED SO MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MAINTAINED. MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SURGE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE OVER LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...AND 100-400 J/KG N OF MOGOLLON RIM...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. LARGE AREAS OF CENTRAL/SERN AZ ALREADY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW POOLS...SO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME QUITE FRAGMENTED ON MESOBETA AND SMALLER SCALES WITHIN REGION. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 05:37:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 00:37:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407240537.i6O5bAX19064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240534 SWODY1 SPC AC 240532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DLH BRD FAR 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 50 SW GCN 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 35 SW TVL MHS 35 NE MFR 45 NNW EAT 30 NNW GEG 40 NNW BOI 60 SSE BOI 25 SSW TWF 30 W MLD 40 E PIH 35 SW 27U 50 NNW 27U BZN RAP BFF AKO 35 NE DHT 40 WNW GAG MHK 40 NE SZL CKV TRI 35 S MRB 10 SSW PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT RISES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF GREAT LAKES REGION...AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX FILLS AND EJECTS EWD/NEWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN QUE AND LABRADOR STRAIT. BROAD/DIFFUSE AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE LEFT BEHIND -- FROM LS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THAT FLOW...MOST NOTABLY TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MT. THIS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WY AND WRN NEB THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ...RED RIVER/ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONTAL ZONE. ACTIVITY WILL BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND MULTICELLULAR IN MODE...STRONGEST TSTMS BEING INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE INVOF WRN PORTION OF PLUME OF GREATEST PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS -- OVER NRN LA/SRN AR/SERN OK/NERN TX AREA. FARTHER W WHERE AIR MASS IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED...COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED...BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS OVER ROUGHLY INVERTED-V SHAPED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 3000 J/KG WHERE 70S F DEW POINTS ARE COMMON IN ARKLATEX AND MS RIVER REGION...TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OVER NW TX. LOW-MIDLEVEL ABSOLUTE FLOWS AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WEAK...LIMITING ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF CONVECTION ON LOCAL SCALES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THAT THE SMALL PERCENTAGE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS STILL SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH EVENTS TO WARRANT SUBCATEGORICAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION INVOF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN -- WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED BY ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LATER FLOW FROM SEASONALLY COOL/POST-FRONTAL/CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN ERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE BY ABOUT 24/22Z. MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NRN/CENTRAL CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WITH OVER 180 DEG OF LOW LEVEL VEERING ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS DESPITE WEAKNESSES IN SPEEDS BETWEEN SFC-700 MB. THIS YIELDS 100-200 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER ALONG FRONT RANGE AND MAY SUPPORT BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM ROTATION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO INSOLATION AND WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 25/01Z. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 13:00:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 08:00:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407241300.i6OD05X08998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241257 SWODY1 SPC AC 241256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DLH BRD FAR 70 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 35 SW TVL MHS 35 NE MFR 45 NNW EAT 30 NNW GEG 40 NNW BOI 60 SSE BOI 25 SSW TWF 30 W MLD 40 E PIH 35 SW 27U 50 NNW 27U BZN RAP BFF AKO 35 NE DHT 40 WNW GAG 25 NNE GAG 15 ESE HUT 25 SSW MHK 45 NE MHK 35 SW UIN CKV TRI 35 S MRB 10 SSW PSM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... A SURFACE FRONT...PARTS OF WHICH HAVE BEEN REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDS FROM W TX NEWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SRN OK THEN EWD ACROSS NRN AR AND INTO SRN TN. AN AREA OF ONGOING STORMS PERSISTS FROM ERN OK AND KS INTO MO AND NW AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV OVER ERN KS. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR FROM NE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO BE RELATIVELY FREE OF CLOUDS. GIVEN THE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE SERN STATES. VERTICAL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL ROCKIES... UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE THIS AIR IS ORIGINATING FROM A RELATIVELY COOL...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THEREFORE THE BEST AREA FOR POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WHERE MLCAPE FROM 300 TO 600 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD THROUGH WY AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 16:36:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 11:36:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407241635.i6OGZqX05993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241632 SWODY1 SPC AC 241630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 55 WNW GBN 50 SSW PRC 55 SSE FLG 35 SSE SOW 40 SSE SAD 10 SW DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV 45 NW TYR 25 WSW DUA 45 N ADM 35 ENE MKO 55 WSW ARG 55 WSW MEM 10 WNW GLH 30 N SHV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 20 ENE RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 40 N 27U 30 N GCC 25 NW AKO 15 SSE DHT 65 SW GAG 15 NW ICT 30 S FNB 35 SW UIN 25 NE HOP TRI 35 NNE CHO 15 N BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX/ERN OK/AR... ...CENTRAL/SRN AZ... 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER AZ WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DESPITE STRONG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NELY MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MODEST /AROUND 20 KT/ ALONG SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SHIFT SWWD OUT OF SRN NM AND ACROSS SERN AZ THROUGH THE DAY. AREA OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS CURRENTLY EAST OF TUS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL INHIBIT HEATING FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER SERN AZ. HOWEVER...NORTH OF THIS AREA SKIES REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE...WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TUS INTO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHX TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION BY THE MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN DEGREE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF STEERING FLOW/SHEAR ...CONCERNED THAT STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WHICH MAY ORGANIZE/SUSTAIN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS WSWWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE DESERTS/FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ...AR/ERN OK/NERN TX... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED OR SHIFT ONLY SLOWLY SSEWD INTO SERN OK/NRN TX/NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN WARM SECTOR...SOUNDINGS AT LZK AND SHV INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S/. THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AT SHV THIS MORNING...FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER /H5 WINDS NEAR 20 KT/ AT LZK AND FROM DQU/HKL PROFILERS. THUS...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITHIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS /REGION IS ALREADY NEARING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AT 16Z/. STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG INSTABILITY...AND MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...SHV/S MORNING SOUNDING YIELDED VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF 33C WHICH IS MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND SPREAD GENERALLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... APPEARS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL AROUND SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE DYING. ...NRN CA INTO SRN ORE... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX LIFTING NWD INTO NERN CA/NWRN NV THIS MORNING. THIS MAY FOCUS MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT INTO NRN CA/SRN ORE FOR AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 19:57:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 14:57:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407241956.i6OJuvX30321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241954 SWODY1 SPC AC 241952 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 55 WNW GBN 40 W PRC 10 NW FLG 25 SSE SOW 40 SSW SAD 20 SE FHU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ABI 25 ESE SPS 25 NNW ADM 20 SW MKO 20 NE FYV 30 SSW UNO 10 NW ARG 15 S JBR 55 ENE PBF 30 WNW ELD 20 NW GGG 30 NE ACT 40 S SEP 60 NNE ABI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSW IGM 45 SE SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 30 SW RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 40 N 27U 45 S DGW 15 ENE CVS 50 SSW CDS 20 WNW SPS CNU 15 SE OJC 30 SSW MTO BWG 40 NNW HKY RIC 25 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN TX/SERN OK/AR... ...NRN TX NEWD INTO AR... AT 18Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR CNU...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX. HOWEVER...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY SOUTH OF THE FRONT...NEAR A ABI-ADM-FSM-JBR LINE. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 6-6.5C/KM...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...500 MB WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. ...CENTRAL/SRN AZ... MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AZ. NELY WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL RESULT IN STORMS TO PROPAGATE SWWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FORWARD PROPAGATION AND IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP...A WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING/INSTABILITY. ...NRN CA INTO SRN ORE... WV/VSBY IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN CA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCAPES ARE ALREADY NEAR 1000 J/KG AND SHOULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK WINDS FROM THE SURFACE-500 MB...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO WITH BRIEF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ..IMY.. 07/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 01:06:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 20:06:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407250105.i6P15xX11734@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250103 SWODY1 SPC AC 250101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 45 ENE BLH 50 SE IGM 55 NNE PHX 65 SW SOW 25 NNE TUS 65 WSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 45 NNW BLH 55 SW SGU 50 NW P38 50 S NFL 30 SW TVL 30 SW RBL 45 W MHS 30 W MFR PDX 35 ESE HLN 45 S DGW 15 ENE CVS 25 SW CDS 30 SSE OKC 20 NE CNU SZL 30 SSW MTO BWG 45 E TRI 65 N RWI 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 25 SW AUS 25 SSE JCT 10 NW DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ... ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST AZ... STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SWRN AZ HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40-45 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS SWWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. ...ARKLATEX/NRN LA TO THE OZARKS REGION... 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TO WRN TX... WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDED EWD ACROSS AR TO THE NRN/ CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...CENTRAL/SERN ORE TO NERN CA/NWRN NV/EXTREME SWRN ID... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...WILL MOVE NWD INTO ORE OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG... WITH THE GREATEST VALUES LOCATED OVER NERN CA AND NRN ORE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NERN CA/NRN NV INTO SRN-ERN ORE AND PORTIONS OF SRN ID AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS NWD. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PER AREA 00Z RAOBS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY FROM 50-60 DEGREES WILL FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 06:15:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 01:15:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407250614.i6P6EfX26211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250612 SWODY1 SPC AC 250611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU 55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 ENE RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 35 W 3HT 50 ESE RIW 20 NNW BFF 45 N IML 15 SSE GLD 15 S CAO 15 NE CVS 25 NW BGS 30 SE ABI 15 WNW DAL 40 S MLC 30 SSW UMN 50 SSW STL 20 SE CMH 25 SSW CRW 25 SSW LYH 40 W RIC 25 SSE DCA 25 SSW ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AS IT REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM STRONGER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS CANADA. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS WRN CANADA AND WA/WRN ORE WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TRACKING EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE INITIALLY OVER AR WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD AL/TN IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ...CENTRAL-ERN CO/NERN NM... 30 KT OF NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN CO BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ESEWD OF CO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SELY ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING ESEWD INTO THE PLAINS AS THE MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. 30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW ATOP SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...CENTRAL-SRN AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL-NERN AZ. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERTS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. NELY STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 KT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO PROPAGATE SWWD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE DESERTS...BUT THE MARGINAL STEERING FLOW MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. ...CENTRAL-SRN ID/ERN ORE/NRN NV/NWRN UT... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...GULF COAST STATES... AIR MASS FROM SERN TX AND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG HEATING EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AIR MASS...BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 12:48:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 07:48:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407251247.i6PCljX09743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251246 SWODY1 SPC AC 251244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU 55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 ENE RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 35 W 3HT 50 ESE RIW 20 NNW BFF 45 N IML 15 SSE GLD 15 S CAO 15 NE CVS 55 ENE HOB 30 S CDS 30 ESE SPS 40 S MLC 30 SSW UMN 50 SSW STL 20 SE CMH 25 SSW CRW 25 SSW LYH 40 W RIC 25 SSE DCA 25 SSW ACY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN TX...LOWER MS VALLEY...AND WRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES... EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM S TX NEWD THROUGH SRN AR...NRN MS...NRN AL AND N GA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 C ARE RESULTING IN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SWD TODAY. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ... NELY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIM TO DEVELOP SSWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ...CNTRL AND ERN CO... UPSLOPE REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL AIR ORIGINATING FROM A COOL...CLOUDY AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION AND STRONG STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE MORE LIKELY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN OR. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TODAY AND MAY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF ID. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OR. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 16:23:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 11:23:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407251622.i6PGMoX06215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251620 SWODY1 SPC AC 251618 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ESF 20 W MLU 35 S PBF 10 NNE BWG 30 W JKL 20 WNW TRI 50 S TYS BHM 30 S LUL 20 NNW BTR 10 W ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OWY 30 NW OWY 45 NW BOI 75 SSE S80 50 NNE 27U 35 NE DLN 35 WSW JAC 35 ENE MLD 45 S BYI 25 ESE OWY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE YUM 30 W PRC 20 SSE GCN 55 N INW 40 NE SOW 20 NNE SAD FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW YUM 15 WNW SGU 55 SE ELY 25 ESE U31 55 SSW SVE 50 E EKA 35 ESE CEC 20 W MFR 65 E RDM 35 ENE EPH 25 SSW 63S 50 WNW FCA 45 WSW CTB 15 NW GTF 20 S 3HT 50 ESE RIW 35 N LAR 50 ESE CYS 40 N LHX 15 WNW CAO 25 N CVS 50 ENE HOB 45 ENE ABI 15 NW DAL 35 SSE MLC 30 E FYV 55 SSW STL 15 W CMH 25 N HLG 10 W LBE 40 ENE EKN 15 N CHO 25 S DCA 35 SE DOV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE TN/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT... ...PORTIONS TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY... MCV/VORT CENTER CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS WRN TN INTO FAR SRN KY THIS MORNING...WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW INCREASING CONVECTION SSWWD TOWARDS FAR NWRN AL ATTM. APPEARS AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE / MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG / WITH LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION LEFT AT 15Z THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN. COMBINATION OF CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT AHEAD OF PERSISTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF WRN TN WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE TN NNEWD ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER INTO SERN KY. IN ADDITION...REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG PERIPHERY OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 20 KT EVIDENT IN AREA VWP/S AND BNA/S 12Z SOUNDING. THIS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND FAR ERN TX...FLOW ALOFT WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/WET MICROBURSTS WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVERLAYING A VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AT JAN. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAPPING ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TN MCS EXTENDING SSWWD FROM NERN MS INTO NERN LA. EVEN WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND 70+ SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPARENTLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AR/WRN TN THIS MORNING. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS DUE TO PULSE-NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...EXPECT SEVERE COVERAGE WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK. ...AZ... 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVERALL AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HRS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DRYING AT PHX. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO WELL DEFINED MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ ATTM. THIS FEATURE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF AZ. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME VIGOROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT NELY STEERING CURRENT AVAILABLE TO BRING STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. THUS...THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN LOOKS WORTHY OF A SLIGHT RISK TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ...ID/SWRN MT... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS SERN ORE THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING CENTRAL/SRN ID AHEAD OF IT. THOUGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT HEATING A BIT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT WARMING TO OCCUR FOR MODEST INSTABILITY BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM BOI INDICATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS...SHOULD SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCUR...WITH PRECIP. WATER AROUND .85 INCHES. GIVEN LARGE SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATE...EXPECT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS STORMS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF APPROACHING VORT CENTER. ..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 19:50:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 14:50:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407251949.i6PJnhX32112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251947 SWODY1 SPC AC 251945 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OWY 35 NW OWY 40 E BKE 30 NE S80 25 S 3DU 35 ESE DLN 40 WSW JAC 35 SE MLD 45 N ENV 25 ESE OWY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM 25 S SGU 35 WSW PGA 15 ENE FLG 55 ESE SOW 25 ESE SAD 20 WSW DUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW LUL BTR 20 SE BPT 35 SSW HOU 40 SSW CLL CLL 50 N POE 55 E MLU 15 ENE UOX 15 ESE BNA 25 N LOZ JKL 10 ENE 5I3 40 SW BLF 30 S TRI 40 E RMG 25 NW AUO 55 NW CEW 45 SSW LUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE IPL LAS 55 WNW DRA 65 SSE TVL 65 NNE SAC MHS RDM PDT S06 40 SE FCA GTF 20 E WRL 15 E PUB 45 E LVS ROW 30 S HOB SJT 15 WSW TPL GGG MKL HOP SDF 20 W HLG 25 SW LBE 40 ENE EKN SHD 45 SSW DCA 25 ENE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS/SERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE ID REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS AZ... ...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION... CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV LOCATED EAST OF BNA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...EXPECT A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND SERN TX...BUT THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. GIVEN THE INTENSE HEATING AND WEAK CAP...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT STRETCHES FROM TN SWWD INTO ERN TX. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS. STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD DIMINISH/WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. ...AZ... SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NELY MID LEVEL WINDS. INTENSE SUNSHINE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE DESERT AREAS AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN CUMULUS CLOUDS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE NELY STEERING FLOW AND STORM COLD POOLS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DRIVE STORMS SWWD INTO THE DESERT FLOORS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND 35-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ...ID/SWRN MT... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A VORT CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE ORE/ID BORDER. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE-600 MB ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOULD DEEPEN WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. THESE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE AS THE STORMS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 07/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 01:07:48 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 20:07:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407260107.i6Q17KX20138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260103 SWODY1 SPC AC 260101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 NNE RAL 25 WSW DAG 40 ENE DAG 20 W LAS 55 WNW DRA 40 SSW TVL 35 WNW SVE 30 ENE ACV RDM PDT 20 WNW 3TH 25 ESE FCA 35 ENE GTF 20 E WRL 30 SW LHX 55 NNW TCC 20 NNW 4CR 45 ENE ALM 15 WNW FST 60 NNE P07 40 SW BWD 40 NE ACT 50 SE PRX 20 NW TXK 20 ENE HOT 15 SW MEM MKL HOP 15 NNE SDF 20 ESE CAK 25 N LBE 50 ENE EKN 20 NW LYH 25 N GSO 20 ENE CAE 40 SSE AGS 20 SE AYS 30 SE GNV 10 N AGR VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CRE 25 SSW GSB 35 SSW RIC 25 NNE RIC 20 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO GULF COAST STATES... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS WRN TN TO CENTRAL/SRN TX... WHILE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED MORE E-W FROM FAR SRN SC ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO NRN AL. VIS IMAGERY AND MESO-ANALYSES INDICATED NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES TODAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK MCVS...ONE MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE SECOND ACROSS NRN MS SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...STORM MERGERS ELSEWHERE WILL AID IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF STORMS SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DECREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THUS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO 5 PERCENT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WHERE EXISTING STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH. ...AZ... OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND STORM MERGERS EARLY THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NONETHELESS...NNELY STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PROPAGATE SSWWD INTO THE DESERTS WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS AGAIN RESULTED IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES... WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SWRN-WRN ID AT 00Z WITH THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN ID OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA THROUGH THE EVENING FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL ORE INTO SRN ID...GIVEN THIS AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED SO FAR TODAY. 00Z BOI RAOB SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO BASED ON A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. ..PETERS.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 06:06:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 01:06:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407260607.i6Q67TX12098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260603 SWODY1 SPC AC 260601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 N DVL 45 SSE PHP 35 E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 NE SJT 20 WNW CLL 20 SE ELD 35 SSW MKL 25 SSW CKV 40 SW SDF 40 N SDF 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 WNW MSV 15 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 45 SSW ESC 15 WSW LNR 45 SSW LSE 30 NW LSE 10 WNW IWD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST/ SRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD OVER WRN CANADA. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER TODAY...AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT A NARROW AXIS OF MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHOULD CAP MOST OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...LIMITING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM THE BLACK HILLS WWD TO PORTIONS OF ERN MT/ERN WY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP OVER THESE AREAS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RESULTING IN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR NRN-NERN MT LATE IN THE PERIOD /BY AROUND 03-06Z/ ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MT/NWRN ND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ...CENTRAL/NRN AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN AZ TO THE PORTION OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF LAS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTICELLS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN AZ...BUT THIS LIKELIHOOD IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES OVER THAT PORTION OF AZ. ...GULF COAST STATES TO SRN APPALACHIANS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. IN ADDITION TO THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LEFT OVER FROM SUNDAY/S ACTIVITY. LESS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONG ACTIVITY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 12:50:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 07:50:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407261249.i6QCnfX03136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261247 SWODY1 SPC AC 261245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 60 N DVL 45 SSE PHP 35 E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 NE SJT 20 WNW CLL 20 SE ELD 35 SSW MKL 25 SSW CKV 40 SW SDF 40 N SDF 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 30 WNW SYR 25 WNW MSV 15 ENE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 45 SSW ESC 15 WSW LNR 45 SSW LSE 30 NW LSE 10 WNW IWD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH MORE PROMINENT SHORT-WAVE FEATURES INCLUDING A TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS / TN / OH VALLEYS...ANOTHER ACROSS SRN ID AND VICINITY...AND A THIRD MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NEWD WHILE TRAILING TROUGH / WEAK FRONT REMAINS ROUGHLY STATIONARY. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE CANADIAN FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN ND. WIDESPREAD STORMS BUT LIMITED IF ANY SEVERE THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS E OF SURFACE TROUGH. STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE DESERT SW AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION -- ALTHOUGH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY -- AND THUS AIRMASS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WEAK AXIS OF MEAGER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NWD / NNWWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF MT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY / ADJACENT WRN SD AND INTO MT THIS AFTERNOON -- AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONGER HIGH-BASED STORMS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW ENOUGH ATTM TO MAINTAIN ONLY 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY. ...PARTS OF AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AZ ATTM INVOF WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE / DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NRN AZ IN WEAK NWLY / ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL -- PARTICULARLY IF WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS SOME PROPAGATION SWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 16:19:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 11:19:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407261619.i6QGJ5X14563@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261616 SWODY1 SPC AC 261614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 30 E PHP 35 E AKO 30 SSW CVS 40 N JCT 20 SW CLL 25 SSE ELD 40 E MEM 50 SSW CKV 30 SSW SDF 45 W LUK 15 N MTO 40 ENE BMI 25 NNE BEH 45 NNE MTC ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR 30 N ELM 20 WNW IPT 30 W ABE 20 ESE NEL ...CONT... CZZ 10 WSW CZZ 45 WSW TRM 40 WNW EED 55 NNE LAS 30 W P38 25 SSW NFL 15 SSE MHS 15 NE LMT 30 S MSO 40 NNW MSO 90 WNW FCA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS IL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN ID AND NWRN WY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ...NRN ROCKIES REGION... 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOI..TFX..AND RIW MAINTAIN INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM SRN ID INTO WY AND CENTRAL MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. BREAKS IN CLOUDS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK AREA. FARTHER NORTH IN MT...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN MT MAINLY TONIGHT. THIS MAY FOCUS A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MT TONIGHT. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ...AZ... 12Z UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A WEAK HIGH LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS AIDING MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NWRN AND WEST CENTRAL AZ. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE...AND ANTICIPATED STRONG HEATING WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW STRONG CELLS SHOULD PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH THREAT FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND MARGINAL HAIL. ...TN VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS /25-30 KT/ IS NOTED OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY AREA...DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND ATTENDANT WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO WV. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN NEWD INTO WV SUGGESTING THAT REGIONS OF LOCALIZED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS AXIS. THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. ..WEISS/GUYER.. 07/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 00:38:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 19:38:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407270037.i6R0bVX06049@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270035 SWODY1 SPC AC 270034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW IPL TRM DRA NFL SVE 50 S 4LW 75 E 4LW 40 ENE BOI 50 NW 27U 25 SSE 3DU 15 S GTF 60 NW HVR ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 10 SSE BIS 20 E PHP LAA LVS 4CR ROW BGS SAT 35 NW HOU 15 ESE POE GWO 50 SSW CKV 55 SSE SDF 30 SSW LUK 20 SSE IND 30 NNW LAF 20 NW CGX 15 ESE MKE 25 N GRR 10 SSW FNT 70 N MTC ...CONT... 30 NNW BUF 25 SE ROC 30 S BGM 15 NE ABE 25 ESE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MT/WRN ND/NWRN SD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE T-TD SPREADS OF 40-50F. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINAL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITHIN SUB-CLOUD LAYER/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1779. ...AZ... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS REMAIN FOCUSED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 00Z TUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE OR DEVELOP SWD/SWWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1780. ...NRN ROCKIES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SRN ID. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 05:18:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 00:18:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407270518.i6R5IOX00990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270515 SWODY1 SPC AC 270513 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RRT 10 SW FAR YKN 40 W EAR 20 NNW IML 20 E BFF 45 NW RAP 30 SE SDY 65 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW PRC 30 N GCN 30 SE U17 55 SW CEZ 45 S GUP 25 N SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W PHX 40 WNW PRC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM ...CONT... 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 40 WNW DSM 25 NE BIE 35 S HSI 20 SE GCK 30 S GAG 35 WSW MLC 30 SSE TYR 20 SSE LFK 30 S HEZ 20 SSW MSL 40 SSW LEX 40 SE DAY 15 WNW FWA 25 SSE MKE 35 NNE MSN 30 SSW CWA 15 ENE RHI 25 NNE MQT ...CONT... 25 W YUM 40 NNW EED 20 SE P38 70 ESE TPH 45 WNW TPH 25 SW NFL 45 W LOL 75 WNW WMC 25 NE TWF 50 ENE SUN 45 NNE 27U MSO 25 NNW 3TH 80 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD...CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH MOST PROMINENT FEATURES BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL CANADA AND THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE FORMER WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES SEWD FROM IT/S SWRN QUADRANT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE LATTER WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INCREASING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO CNTRL WY BY MID AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ALSO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY FROM INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT OVER WRN SD SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NY/PA BY THIS EVENING WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ...NRN PLAINS/NEB... BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW EXPANSIVE PLUME OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM SRN MANITOBA SWWD ALONG FRONT INTO WRN ND. THOUGH STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE N ACROSS POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...NARROW CHANNEL OF 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE LATER TODAY. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WILL EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO QUASI-LINEAR MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO BUILD SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE ACROSS WRN NEB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...ANTICIPATED STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD FOSTER VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...AZ... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN ORE/NRN CA/NWRN NV WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY...LIKELY ENHANCING TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY...PROMOTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG LEE TROUGH. THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND/HAIL. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 13:01:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 08:01:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407271300.i6RD0pX11364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271258 SWODY1 SPC AC 271256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RRT 35 ENE ATY 10 NNE YKN 35 W EAR 30 S SNY 45 NNE CDR 60 NE DGW 25 SW GCC 50 W 4BQ 50 ESE GDV 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE IGM 20 N GCN 55 SSE U17 75 NW GUP 20 S GUP 30 NNW SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W PHX 45 ESE IGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 40 NNW EED 20 SE P38 70 ESE TPH 45 WNW TPH 25 SW NFL 45 W LOL 75 WNW WMC 25 NE TWF 50 ENE SUN 45 NNE 27U MSO 25 NNW 3TH 80 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 40 WNW DSM 25 NE BIE 35 S HSI 20 SE GCK 30 S GAG 35 WSW MLC 30 SSE TYR 20 SSE LFK 30 S HEZ 20 SSW MSL 40 SSW LEX 40 SE DAY 15 WNW FWA 25 SSE MKE 35 NNE MSN 30 SSW CWA 15 ENE RHI 25 NNE MQT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG BOTH THE E AND W COASTS. WITHIN LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS -- THE STRONGER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ATTM WHILE THE WEAKER IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI. THE STRONGER / CANADIAN LOW / TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SLOW ESELY MOVEMENT...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS -- AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ENHANCED /35 TO 40 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW -- SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WEAKER / MIDWESTERN FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES / SRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN PRAIRIE UPPER LOW -- EXTENDING ATTM FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWWD INTO WRN ND / SRN MT -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SSWWD INTO NWRN KS / SERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...ERN U.S. BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST W OF THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...DAKOTAS / NEB... ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO PARTS OF NEB...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE / MARGINALLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S SUGGEST MEAN-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AT BEST IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS ND AND SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED SWD INTO NEB...IT APPEARS THAT CAPE / SHEAR COMBINATION FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER SWD INTO W CENTRAL NEB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / MULTICELL CLUSTERS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...WITH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN SD / NERN NEB. ACROSS THIS REGION...INCREASED ASCENT AND ENHANCED SHEAR -- ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET -- MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION / SEVERE THREAT. ...AZ... A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS AZ TODAY AS WEAK VORT MAX NOW OVER NV MOVES SEWD. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIM COUNTRY OF CENTRAL AND NRN AZ AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WLY COMPONENT TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD IN GENERAL KEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL / NERN AZ...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN AZ -- PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP / PROPAGATE SWD / SWWD ALONG POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 16:19:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 11:19:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407271619.i6RGJEX09717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271615 SWODY1 SPC AC 271613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RRT 35 ENE ATY 10 NNE YKN 35 W EAR 30 S SNY 45 NNE CDR 60 NE DGW 25 SW GCC 15 SE 4BQ 25 SW DIK 50 N MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE IGM 25 E PUC 35 NNW GJT 35 WSW EGE 20 W 4SL 30 NNW SAD 40 SSE PHX 25 W PHX 45 ESE IGM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W YUM 15 SSE EED 40 E LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 30 SE NFL 50 NNW U31 EKO 45 WSW OGD 30 E MLD 50 NE JAC 40 SSE LVM 40 NE 3DU 45 N FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HVR 40 E LWT 50 WSW MLS 25 ESE MLS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL 25 SE BRD 10 W FRM 10 S BIE 30 NW SLN 15 ENE DDC 30 NNW CSM 40 S OKC 45 ESE LFK 15 NNW LFT 40 SSE MCB 25 S MEI HSV 15 SW LOZ 30 W UNI 20 SSW FDY 20 SE SBN 40 S MKE 15 ESE MSN 35 ENE RHI 15 E MQT 15 SSE APN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SWRN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... ATYPICAL MID SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND A POLAR FRONT HAVING MOVED AS FAR S AS NRN GULF OF MEXICO. RESULT IS THE USUAL MOIST GULF AIR MASS IS CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE GULF STATES AND UP THE E COAST TO DELMARVA AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE . WHILE ONE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN GREAT LAKES...STRONGER TROUGH S CENTRAL CANADA EXTENDS SWD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. A SRN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT WILL EFFECT UNSEASONABLY FAR S INTO NRN/CENTRAL AZ EWD INTO NRN NM AND SRN CO. ...NRN PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AS DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60F WILL PRODUCE MLCAPES TO ONLY ABOUT 1500 J/KG BY THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS STRONGER FLOW WITH UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD...TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER INTENSIFY AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LOW END SLIGHT RISK. ...SWRN U.S... WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE S CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS FAR N AS THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ...THE HIGH LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN HALF AZ /WRN UT IS BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE W. WITH 40-50KT WLY FLOW IN THE 300-250MB LAYER SHIFTING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ INTO NRN NM ALONG WITH DEVELOPING STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE 500MB TEMPS ARE AROUND MINUS 9/10 C ...AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED THIS AREA. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ/SERN UT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRYING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE S OF RIM AND ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE HIGH LFC...AROUND 10K FEET...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO CENTRAL DESERTS BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE SEWD FROM MTNS INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS. FURTHER N THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTS OF UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA INTO SWRN CO AND NW NM. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 20:07:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 15:07:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407272007.i6RK7OX17726@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272002 SWODY1 SPC AC 272000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK GFK ATY MHE VTN 35 WNW VTN 10 ESE PHP 40 WSW MBG Y22 50 ENE DIK 65 NNW DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW TUS 25 SW PHX 20 NE FLG 45 SSE SGU 35 WSW MLF 15 SSW 4HV 40 ESE 4HV 35 ENE DRO 55 NNE 4SL 4SL 50 WNW TCS 30 S SAD 10 WNW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE IPL 15 SSE EED 40 E LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 25 ESE NFL 35 SSW WMC 45 NW EKO 10 E OWY TWF 10 S 27U 35 NNW 27U 30 WSW MSO 25 NNE 3DU 25 N HLN 15 S BIL MLS SDY 50 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 20 ESE STC FRM OMA 30 NW SLN DDC 30 NNW CSM 45 E FSI FTW TPL BPT LFT 30 SSE MCB 35 NW MOB TCL CHA 15 S TYS 20 SSW UNI CMH MFD TOL GRR 20 S MKE 25 SE RFD 45 WSW RFD LNR 10 NNW RHI CMX 105 NNW ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES... STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA. MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WITH ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH/PARTS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. FORCING MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS...AND SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...TOWARD PHOENIX AND AREAS TO THE NORTH/EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS STILL RATHER STRONG NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH FURTHER HEATING. FURTHERMORE...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...AND CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 28/00Z. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTS A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS. AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON... VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. I STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS MAY MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...IN MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IS MINIMIZING HAIL THREAT...BUT HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CAPE/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL SCALE DOWNBURSTS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK. **FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 07/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 00:42:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 19:42:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407280041.i6S0fXX24585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280038 SWODY1 SPC AC 280037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N GFK GFK 35 E ATY 10 SW FSD 20 WSW YKN 15 NNW ANW 45 SSE PHP 30 NW PHP 50 S Y22 30 NNE Y22 80 NE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE GBN 60 ESE EED 45 NNE IGM 15 W PGA 50 WSW FMN 25 S GUP 80 WNW TCS 30 S SAD 45 SE GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 20 ESE STC FRM OMA 30 NW SLN 30 NNW P28 END 10 SE OKC 40 SSW ADM ACT BPT LFT 30 SSE MCB 35 NW MOB TCL CHA 15 S TYS 20 SSW UNI 25 ESE CMH 15 SW MFD 30 WSW TOL 30 NW AZO MTW 40 ESE RHI 25 WNW MQT 105 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 WNW EFK 15 S PWM ...CONT... 30 ESE IPL 15 SW EED 10 ESE LAS 55 NE DRA TPH 25 ESE NFL 35 S WMC 30 NNW BAM 10 SSE OWY TWF 10 S 27U 45 N 27U 20 ESE MSO 30 WNW GTF 60 SSW HVR 55 ESE LWT 10 NW MLS SDY 50 NNW ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AZ INTO FAR WRN NM... ...NRN PLAINS... 23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL ND SWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL SD /NEAR PIR/ AND THEN SWWD INTO S-CNTRL WY/N-CNTRL CO. NARROW AXIS OF 60F DEWPOINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITHIN KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KTS. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN WY... COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT INTO STRONGER CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z ABR SOUNDING. ...AZ/WRN NM... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E-CNTRL NV/SWRN UT TRANSLATING SEWD. THOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS LIKELY PROCESSED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL AZ...LOWER DESERT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /PER 00Z TUS SOUNDING/ WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ALONG THE RIM TO SPREAD SWD/SEWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. PRESENCE OF 30-40KTS OF FLOW AOA 6KM ON THE 00Z FGZ/TUS SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS /SOME OF WHICH MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..MEAD.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 05:30:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 00:30:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407280529.i6S5TZX19098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280526 SWODY1 SPC AC 280524 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW GLD 30 W LBF 25 W BBW 20 WSW EAR 10 NNE CSM 20 NE ABI 35 NNW SJT BGS 35 E CVS 45 NNE CAO 45 NNW GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL 15 SSE JLN 30 NNW TXK 35 SSE SHV 10 S HEZ 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 45 ENE CHA SSU 35 W MRB 25 ENE AOO 30 N PSB 10 SW ERI 40 NW ERI ...CONT... 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 10 SSE P38 45 NNW TPH 40 SE LOL 25 SE BAM 25 W DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 45 SSW WEY 30 S HLN 40 N MSO 20 NW FCA 45 WNW CTB 40 NNW GTF 30 W LWT BIL 35 W 4BQ 40 WNW PHP 30 NW PIR 20 NW JMS 70 N GFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW EWD/SEWD PROGRESSION OF DOMINANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CNTRL CANADA IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH DOWNSTREAM LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES SEQUENTIALLY MOVE OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL PUSH SEWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE E...WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPENING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... DEWPOINTS IN 60S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT THE OF CNTRL ROCKIES ENHANCES DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THOUGH FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE...WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EPISODES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY... TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF MCV CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTRL SD. POOR LAPSE RATES /LIKELY AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION/ WILL LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF MODEST SHEAR/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. ...WY... POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NELY/ELY TODAY...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR THE INITIATION OF DIURNAL TSTMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED WIND OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER NWD EXTENSION OF CATEGORICAL RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC /I.E. MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/. ...HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION... BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND ACROSS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE. THOUGH 28/00Z ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...IT APPEARS THAT THE MODEL SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS ACTIVE AND LIKELY RESULTING IN AN OVER-ESTIMATION OF THE INSTABILITY. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...HOWEVER...TO SUPPORT TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL OCCURRENCES. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THAN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. ...ERN AZ/NM... SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES SHOULD ENHANCE DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 13:06:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 08:06:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407281305.i6SD5sX28993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281303 SWODY1 SPC AC 281301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL 15 SSE JLN 30 NNW TXK 35 SSE SHV 10 S HEZ 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 45 ENE CHA SSU 35 W MRB 25 ENE AOO 30 N PSB 10 SW ERI 40 NW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 10 SSE P38 45 NNW TPH 40 SE LOL 25 SE BAM 25 W DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 45 SSW WEY 30 S HLN 40 N MSO 20 NW FCA 45 WNW CTB 40 NNW GTF 30 W LWT BIL 35 W 4BQ 40 WNW PHP 30 NW PIR 20 NW JMS 70 N GFK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE / BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES / PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVING EWD THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW. MOST ENERGETIC PORTION OF TROUGH -- AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF 40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL / LESS INTENSE DISTURBANCES SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. FURTHER E...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NERN OH WITH SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING TROUGH...WHILE 4O TO 45 KT SWLY JET STREAK SHIFTS FROM PA EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / GREAT LAKES...AND SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST / MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING ERN U.S. LOW / TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST / MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE LAGGING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...WY INTO WRN NEB / SWRN SD... NELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE AOB 500 J/KG EXPECTED. NONETHELESS...PERSISTENT 40 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL. ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT...MORE PRONOUNCED DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAN NOW ANTICIPATED COULD WARRANT SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE. ...ERN PA / ERN NY AND VICINITY... MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW / TROUGH WHERE WEAK LAPSE RATES EXIST ATTM...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 750 J/KG IS ANTICIPATED...APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF CLOUDS / PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR ACROSS THIS REGION CAN SHIFT EWD BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING GREATER DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION. ...UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES... CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS / MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BENEATH BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEWD WHERE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. THIS COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL IS APPROPRIATE...ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF GREATER SEVERE CONCENTRATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 22:15:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 17:15:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407282215.i6SMF1X25170@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281958 SWODY1 SPC AC 281956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 55 E IGM 40 SE SGU 35 NNW SGU 50 WSW DPG 25 WSW OGD 45 ESE PIH 15 NNE JAC 15 SE COD 45 WSW GCC 60 SSE 81V 45 ENE AIA 25 NW VTN 40 NNW 9V9 45 SW FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL JLN 35 NNW TXK 30 SE SHV ESF 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 35 NNW AND 15 S ROA 40 NE SHD 25 SSE PSB 50 ESE BFD 45 SE BUF 10 NNW BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DELMARVA TO CENTRAL/ERN NY... AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NY BENEATH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...AND SWD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL PA. ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NY AND ERN PA IN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS SWD TO WRN TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN TX... UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM MT/WY EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER WRN KS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THESE AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER WRN KS SWD TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STRONGEST MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NWRN KS/SWRN NEB BORDER AREA...WHERE THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT HAS INTERSECTED THE LEE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. VIS IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL AND LIKELY ELEVATED. FARTHER SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...DESPITE THE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM INTO ERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS A FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ESEWD OVER THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER FAR SERN WY AND NORTH CENTRAL CO...GIVEN NELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..PETERS.. 07/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 00:50:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2004 19:50:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407290049.i6T0nbX11315@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290046 SWODY1 SPC AC 290045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SEP 15 NNE DAL 20 SSW PRX 35 NNE TYR 20 SE TYR 55 SSW TYR 30 WNW TPL 45 ESE BWD 30 SSW SEP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 30 S PHX 40 S PRC 45 ENE IGM 40 SSW SGU 15 NNE P38 35 E ELY SLC 20 ENE EVW 25 NE RKS 15 NNW RWL 50 S DGW 30 NNE SNY 40 ESE LBF 35 NW GRI 15 ESE MHE 55 NNE ATY 40 WNW INL ...CONT... 125 NW ANJ IMT 35 WNW LNR 40 WSW CID 35 NNW SZL JLN 35 NNW TXK 30 SE SHV ESF 55 SE MEI 35 S ANB 35 NNW AND 15 S ROA 40 NE SHD 25 SSE PSB 50 ESE BFD 45 SE BUF 10 NNW BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER A PART OF N-CNTRL INTO NERN TX... ...N-CNTRL/NERN TX... STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS PERSIST THIS EVENING ON SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEAR THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH AREA. WEAK SURFACE LOW COINCIDENT WITH MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER N-CNTRL TX IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THIS REGION. MOREOVER...CURRENT FTW VWP INDICATES 40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 100-150 M2/S2 SRH THROUGH THE LOWEST 1KM WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG /PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO NJ... BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER ERN NY SWD INTO FAR ERN PA/NJ WITHIN REGION OF FORCING AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX LIFTING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NY. THOUGH 00Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY STRONG MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. 50KTS AT 500MB AND 95KTS AT 300MB/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIRMASS. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ORGANIZED COLD POOL HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH CONVECTIVE LINE FROM SE OF RSL TO NEAR DDC WITH OVERALL SYSTEM PROPAGATION TO THE S AT 10-20KTS. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS SWRN KS REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE /PER 00Z DDC/ WITH SOME AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. THUS...ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...PRIOR TO COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...SRN AZ/SWRN NM... 00Z TUS SOUNDING SHOWED WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER THROUGH 700MB WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 700 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK VORTICITY MAX TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL NM ATTM WITH REGION OF FORCING EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN AZ. GIVEN THE AMBIENT THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..MEAD.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 05:04:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 00:04:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407290504.i6T54MX26891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290501 SWODY1 SPC AC 290500 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4FC 25 SSW WRL 35 E COD 10 N SHR 35 NNE GCC 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 40 WSW PUB 30 N 4FC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 35 SSE CGX 35 S TBN 35 NNE LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP 35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 30 S DMN 20 SE FMN U17 ELY 30 W PIH 25 NW 27U 35 ENE GTF 30 SSW Y22 35 SE BRD 35 ENE EAU 20 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE PWM 45 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF CNTRL CANADIAN MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK /NOW OVER W-CNTRL ALBERTA/ WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE TODAY OVER ERY WY/SERN MT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... WY/MT CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENHANCE NWWD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE /7.5-8.5 C/KM/ PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH AIRMASS ACROSS SERN WY INTO ERN CO/WRN NEB BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK FRONT OR WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN LIKELY OCCUR SWD TO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WY AND ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE. WNWLY 30-40KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A RATHER BROAD REGION OF 35-45KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM ERN MT/WRN ND SWD INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO. THUS...AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/MCS OVERNIGHT WHICH MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SD/NEB. DEVELOPMENT OF SWLY LLJ FROM WRN KS INTO SRN SD SHOULD MAINTAIN INFLUX OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SRN FLANK OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHERE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ...ARKLATEX REGION... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F/ WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY TO THE S OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO NERN TX...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND E OF IT/S TRACK. COMBINATION OF MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD/GUYER.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 12:58:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 07:58:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407291257.i6TCvNX07552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291254 SWODY1 SPC AC 291252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N 4FC 25 SSW WRL 35 E COD 10 N SHR 35 NNE GCC 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 40 WSW PUB 30 N 4FC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 20 SE FMN U17 ELY 30 WSW PIH 25 NW 27U 35 E GTF 35 SSW Y22 35 SE BRD 35 ENE EAU 20 SE CMX ...CONT... 30 N APN 35 SSE CGX 15 WSW STL 35 WNW POF 50 SSW JBR 10 WNW GWO 35 E TUP 20 ENE LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM WY / SRN MT SWD INTO CO / NRN NM... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE / NRN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS. MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS MT WITHIN MODERATE /40 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...MOST SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SWRN FRINGE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NERN CO / SERN WY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN / RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NERN CO / SERN WY VICINITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOME NWD RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / ELEVATED MIXED SHOULD SPREADING ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ BY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT / LEE TROUGH / WEAK SURFACE LOW ALL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK...40 KT WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VEERING / SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST INSTABILITY... HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION -- AND PERHAPS AS FAR SWD AS SERN CO / NERN NM. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND THUS MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...EWD EXTENT OF THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR ENEWD AS ERN SD / SWRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...ARKLATEX REGION... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS / CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS SERN OK / PARTS OF NERN TX ATTM...WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN OK. THIS MCS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION INTO AR / NRN LA...WHERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS. ALTHOUGH GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PERSIST FURTHER S ACROSS ERN AND INTO CENTRAL TX S OF ONGOING STORMS...WEAKER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. ..GOSS/GUYER.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 16:19:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 11:19:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407291618.i6TGIXD10952@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291616 SWODY1 SPC AC 291614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FCL CPR GCC 45 WNW RAP 35 WSW PHP VTN 10 NE LBF 15 W MCK 25 SE LHX 25 SW PUB FCL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 75 ESE SOW 15 S FMN 20 NNW SGU 30 WSW PIH 25 SW MSO 40 NNE HVR 35 SSE DIK 35 SE BRD 45 NNE EAU 15 WSW CMX ...CONT... 30 N APN 40 SSW SBN 10 SSW SLO 30 E POF 30 W MEM 10 WNW GWO 35 E TUP 45 W LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF WY AND CO...SWRN SD...WRN NEB...AND EXTREME NWRN KS... ...ERN CO/ERN WY/SWRN SD/WRN NEB/EXTREME NWRN KS... NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING NRN MT TURNS SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN WY REGION WITH A N/S ORIENTED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER ERN PARTS OF CO AND WY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND VERTICAL MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN A SMALL LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON DURING PRIMARY DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AND CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WY AND CO THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD AND SEWD INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH WILL AID FOCUSED UPWARD MOTION. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND PROFILES THAT VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO FORM...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL LEVELS WITHIN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER NEB AND SRN SD STRENGTHENS...WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING AFTER 06Z. ...ERN TX INTO NWRN LA AND SRN AR... STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCV OVER ERN OK. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND. MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT SUGGEST SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT TO MAINTAIN MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY OCCUR... WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C AT 500 MB COUPLED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD REDUCE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TO MINIMAL LEVELS. ..WEISS/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 20:04:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 15:04:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407292004.i6TK4HD21263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291955 SWODY1 SPC AC 291953 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TAD 25 SW PUB 15 WSW FCL CPR 35 SW GCC GCC 35 ENE 81V 20 SW PHP 15 WNW VTN 30 ESE MHN 40 WSW MCK 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW APN 20 W SBN 20 E MVN 40 NE DYR 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT 20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 25 NNW TWF 35 N 27U 45 SE CTB 50 E HVR 30 S DIK 50 SW AXN 45 E STC 25 ENE IWD 15 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO... ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO. SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM DENVER EXTENDING NWD TO ABOUT CHADRON NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS...WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM IN THIS CORRIDOR. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 20 DEGREES F. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING SLOWLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL TX INTO FAR SE OK. A COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE DALLAS/FT WORTH AREA. STRONG SFC HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL HAS CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 21:42:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 16:42:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407292141.i6TLfwD32620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292138 SWODY1 SPC AC 292136 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TAD 25 SW PUB 15 WSW FCL CPR 35 SW GCC 30 NE 81V 60 SSE Y22 40 NNE PIR 35 NNE 9V9 55 ENE ANW 40 SSE IML 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE AUG 60 NNE BML ...CONT... 40 NNW APN 20 W SBN 20 E MVN 40 NE DYR 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT 20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 25 NNW TWF 35 N 27U 45 SE CTB 50 E HVR 30 S DIK 50 SW AXN 45 E STC 25 ENE IWD 15 NW CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB AND ERN CO... AMENDED FOR EXTENDING SLIGHT RISK INTO CNTRL SD ...CNTRL SD... ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY WEAK ACROSS CNTRL SD...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. REFERENCE MCD# 1793. ...HIGH PLAINS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO. SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM DENVER EXTENDING NWD TO ABOUT CHADRON NEB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS...WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED MULTICELL STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CONSIDERING 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM IN THIS CORRIDOR. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 20 DEGREES F. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...DECREASING SLOWLY IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM CNTRL TX INTO FAR SE OK. A COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE DALLAS/FT WORTH AREA. STRONG SFC HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE COLD POOL HAS CREATED MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR DEL RIO EXTENDING EWD INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 07/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 00:51:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 19:51:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407300050.i6U0oaD28927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300047 SWODY1 SPC AC 300045 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE TAD 25 SW PUB 40 ENE FCL 15 SW AIA 40 N CDR 10 NE PHP 25 NNE 9V9 55 ENE ANW 40 SSE IML 25 SE LHX 15 NNE TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 50 SSW GNT 20 ENE FMN 40 ESE 4HV 35 NNE MLF 10 W ENV 15 E TWF 35 WNW IDA 30 SSE WEY 20 NE WRL 30 ESE 81V 35 ESE Y22 50 N ABR 45 WNW AXN 15 S AXN 30 NNE OTG 30 WSW OLU 50 SSE DDC 25 ESE AMA 30 SSW CVS CNM 30 NE FST 20 NNW SJT 35 W MWL 35 NNE MKO 60 NNE JLN 50 SSW IRK 20 S BRL 20 SSE PIA 25 WSW MTO 15 SW MVN 40 SW PAH 55 ENE MKL 20 NNW BNA 25 SE LUK 15 ESE PSB 10 SSW JFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...HIGH PLAINS... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WARM ADVECTION REGIME SLOWLY INTENSIFIES FROM ERN CO...INTO CENTRAL SD. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SHARPLY SWD ALONG NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ECNTRL WY...SWRN SD...WRN NEB APPEARS TO BE AIDING SWD SURGE TO SFC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO NERN CO BY 04Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO YET TO BE OVERTURNED AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A SEVERE WIND GUST WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY PROPAGATE SWD. ..DARROW.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 05:59:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 00:59:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407300558.i6U5wsD27083@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300556 SWODY1 SPC AC 300554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ERI 10 WNW HLG 45 W HTS 35 NE BWG 30 WSW EVV 25 NW HUF 30 E TOL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E TAD 25 NW COS 15 SSW FCL CYS 30 SSW BFF 50 ENE SNY 45 W EAR 15 SSW OLU 35 S SUX 15 NNW OTG 25 ESE AXN 45 NNE BRD 30 S ELO 35 N IWD 20 W RHI 15 WSW VOK 30 WNW CID 20 NNW LWD 10 SSE MHK 20 NE P28 20 S GAG 50 NNW CDS 40 WSW AMA 35 ENE TCC 50 E TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 15 W LCI 25 WSW BAF ABE 35 NNW RIC 55 WSW ORF 15 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW TUS 65 N TUS 65 SSW GNT 25 N GNT 25 E CEZ 20 SSE PUC 50 SE SLC 25 E EVW 35 NNW RKS 30 SE LND 30 NNE RIW 15 WSW COD 20 NNW WEY 40 NW SUN 65 N WMC 15 ENE SVE RBL 35 E 4BK 55 SSE EUG 55 W BKE 20 SSW LWS 20 N GEG 55 NNE 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE ISN 45 SSE P24 35 SW MBG 15 SSE PHP 30 NE MHN 25 N BUB 20 SW YKN 50 WSW AXN 20 S BJI 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 35 NW SZL 45 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE LTS 65 NNW ABI BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO MN...IA...SWWD INTO NERN CO BY PEAK HEATING PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST PROFILE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE BY PEAK HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO/KS WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SWD-PROPAGATING ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING. FARTHER NORTHEAST...WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MN INTO NRN IA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS TOWARD WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...OH VALLEY... UPPER VORT MAX OVER MO WILL SHEAR NEWD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL INTO LOWER MI. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM THE TN VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS KY INTO OH BY MID DAY. ANY LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW TYPE ECHOES THAT EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW/BRIGHT.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 13:03:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 08:03:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407301303.i6UD35D24462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301300 SWODY1 SPC AC 301258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI FKL PIT PKB LEX 45 NE BWG 35 WSW EVV HUF 45 E TOL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW OTG 40 NNE RWF DLH IWD RHI ALO 35 SW FOD SUX 45 SSW OTG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD PUB DEN FCL CYS 25 SSE BFF 55 N IML MCK HLC 25 ESE DDC GAG 55 NNW CDS 40 WSW AMA TCC TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 40 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE LTS BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR LCI 25 WSW BAF ABE 35 NNW RIC 30 E ORF ...CONT... 70 NNW MOT 45 SSE P24 35 SW MBG PHP 30 NE MHN 25 N BUB YKN 50 WSW AXN BJI 30 E INL ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 65 N TUS 65 SSW GNT 25 E CEZ 35 S SLC OGD 30 SE LND 30 N RIW COD 50 NW 3HT 85 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW RBL 30 E 4BK 60 SSE EUG 65 E RDM 45 SSW BKE 60 W BOI 55 NW OWY 65 W OWY SVE 15 ENE RBL 50 NW RBL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE-UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE DAY-1. TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM NWRN ONT TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WEAKENING FROM MKC AREA SWD AS HEIGHTS RISE BETWEEN ATLANTIC COAST AND 4-CORNERS HIGHS. NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH INTENSIFICATION OF 4-CORNERS ANTICYCLONE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER DAKOTAS/NRN NEB IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...WEAK CYCLONE ANALYZED OVER SWRN MN/EXTREME ERN SD AREA WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD WRN WI...WITH TRAILING TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT MOVING EWD AND SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEB. MCS HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN PAST 2-3 HOURS OVER SERN NEB/NERN KS. THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM E-CENTRAL CO...VICINITY LIC...SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS TO DDC/GCK AREA. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. ELY/UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND MOIST ADVECTION IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...AND ONCE CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY...TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING WILL LEAD TO HIGH CLOUD BASES RELATIVE TO CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC/ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 150-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO TSTM COMPLEX AFTER DARK WITH SEWD TO SSEWD NET MOTION TOWARD WRN KS...SERN CO AND PERHAPS OK/TX PANHANDLES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COLLECTIVE COLD POOL AND FORWARD PROPAGATION...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN THREAT. ...OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES... TSTM COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE OVER THIS AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND WEAK MOIST ADVECTION-- WITH 60S TO 70 F SFC DEW POINTS -- SHOULD COUNTERACT WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO RAISE SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. SEASONALLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS -- I.E. 35-45 KT AT 500 MB AND 70-90 KT AT 250 MB -- SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. FCST LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. THREAT APPEARS PRIMARILY DIURNAL. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... INCREASING INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGHOUT DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS BY AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST RISK INVOF SFC CYCLONE -- WHERE ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RELATIVELY BACKED. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...WEAK CAPPING AND LIFT NEAR LOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM GENESIS. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY AROUND 30/21Z. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THREAT HERE ALSO APPEARS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 31/03Z...THOUGH A SHORT LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS WI. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SWWD ALONG SFC FRONT AS EVEN WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 16:35:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 11:35:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407301635.i6UGZGD00864@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301632 SWODY1 SPC AC 301630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI FKL PIT PKB LEX 30 N HOP MDH CMI 15 ENE TOL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ATY BRD DLH 40 WSW IWD EAU RST FOD SUX 50 E ATY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TAD PUB DEN FCL CYS BFF IML 45 NW GCK EHA CAO TAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DAL 15 WNW PGO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSE VIH 40 S UIN 20 S IRK 40 WSW CNU 30 N OKC 30 SE LTS BGS SJT 25 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE MOT 50 ESE P24 35 SW MBG 35 ESE PHP 15 ENE VTN 45 ENE ANW 30 NW YKN 45 NNE ATY 35 W BJI 25 E RRT ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 15 W LCI 20 NNE BAF 15 S GON ...CONT... 50 WSW FHU 65 N TUS 45 NNE INW U17 60 NW 4HV 45 W U24 45 N ELY 35 WSW BAM 30 E SVE 35 E EKA 15 ENE 4BK 60 NNE MFR 60 SSE RDM 40 SE BNO 40 NW OWY 45 E MLD 30 S LND 25 NNE RIW 15 N COD 50 NW 3HT 85 NW FCA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN/IA/WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THREE AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEAR TO EXIST FOR THE DAY1 PERIOD. ...OHIO VALLEY... WEAK UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERN IL. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY/IND/OH THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ETA/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SYSTEM...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OR STORM-SCALE BOWS. RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. ...MN/IA/WI... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA...SPREADING INTO WESTERN WI BY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF UPSTREAM FEATURE TO FOCUS CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN KS. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 20:08:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 15:08:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407302007.i6UK7oD26728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302002 SWODY1 SPC AC 302000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 45 N CSV 55 N MSL 15 SE MKL DYR 25 W PAH 40 S BMG 35 SSE MIE 30 SSE DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW FOD 25 SE SPW 25 SE BRD 20 SW DLH 65 WSW IWD 20 NNE EAU 20 ENE ALO 30 NE DSM 40 SSW FOD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END 70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50 S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML 20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9 30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20 NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM 15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO 20 E COS 30 NE FCL 35 SSW BFF 25 N SNY 20 NNW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW GCK 15 W LBL 40 NNE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH RIVER. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW IN SERN MO. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS ACROSS IND AND OH WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. AT MID-LEVELS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET MAXIMA LOCATED ACROSS SW IND WITH ABOUT 45 KT AT 500 MB. THE IND VAD WIND PROFILE CONFIRMS THIS...SHOWING 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS APPEARS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KY..SE IND AND SWRN OH ESPECIALLY IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT ROTATE. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FROM MULTICELL CONVECTION. HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE CELLS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND ACROSS OH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ND AND MN IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL MN WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ENHANCED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS THEY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN MN AND ERN IA. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY STRONGER. ...HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS OF ERN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THE STORMS SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JET MAX CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 07/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 00:49:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 19:49:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407310048.i6V0mWD24136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310044 SWODY1 SPC AC 310042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ERI FKL HLG 20 WSW HTS 25 NW LOZ 30 SSW BWG 35 W HOP 35 NNE PAH 30 NNW EVV 15 W BMG 30 SSE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNU 30 SW END 70 SSE CDS 25 NNW ABI 25 ENE ABI 20 NNW MWL 30 WSW FYV 35 ENE VIH 50 S UIN 30 SW UIN 40 SSW IRK 25 NW CNU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CAR 10 SSW BML 20 ENE EEN 15 S GON ...CONT... 60 NE MOT 35 E PHP 15 NE VTN 50 S 9V9 30 SSW MHE 25 WSW ATY 55 E FAR INL ...CONT... 45 WSW FHU 45 N INW 20 NW U17 30 SSW U24 20 E LOL 15 N RBL 30 SE CEC 45 SE OTH 35 WSW RDM 15 N BNO 45 N OWY 30 NNE OGD 55 S BPI RIW 20 NE COD 15 SSW GTF 70 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE DHT 50 NNW CAO 30 ENE PUB 30 N LIC 15 NE AKO 25 WSW IML 45 ESE GLD 15 WSW GCK 15 W LBL 40 NNE DHT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...OH VALLEY... HIGH LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. REMNANTS OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER VORT HAS LIFTED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IND INTO NWRN OH WITH LITTLE SFC REFLECTION OTHER THAN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW SPREADING INTO SERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND IN THE WAKE OF UPPER VORT INTO SERN MO HAS AIDED STRONG/SEVERE MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION DEPICT SIGNIFICANT SFC-1 KM SPEED SHEAR...ROUGHLY 30 KT AT ILN...VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND STRONGER SPEED SHEAR WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...AT BOTH DNR AND AMA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN NWLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LLJ SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS WHICH MAY AID INFLOW AND ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A STRONG WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...MN/WI... CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED ALONG WIND SHIFT ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN A VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BUT MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH AND FOCUS ALONG WIND SHIFT WILL SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION SPREADING INTO WRN WI BEFORE IT GRADUALLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY DOES NOT SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 06:02:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 01:02:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407310601.i6V61dD12390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310600 SWODY1 SPC AC 310558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUL 15 W AUG 20 SSW EEN 25 SE MSV 15 NE IPT 40 WNW ELM 30 W ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE DVL 40 SSE TVF 30 NNW STC 30 SW RST 40 NNW OTM 15 ENE P35 15 WNW STJ 25 W BIE 30 WNW OFK 25 SE PIR 35 N REJ 45 N MLS 70 NW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE GGG 50 WSW OWB 55 ESE IND 20 E TOL 15 NNE FNT 15 ENE HTL 10 ENE MBL RFD 40 SSE IRK 30 SSE CDS 25 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK 70 ENE P07 15 ENE GGG ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SE PHX 35 WSW PRC 55 SE SGU 75 NNE INW 55 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 50 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC 40 W RBL 30 SE EKA 30 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 25 ENE EUG 55 NE BKE 60 E S80 35 E 3TH 65 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO IA... ...NERN U.S... BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PA INTO UPSTATE NY...SPREADING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 70F. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT PROVIDE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH SFC PATTERN DOES NOT DISPLAY A STRONG REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE WILL FOCUS ACROSS WRN PA/WRN NY AROUND 18Z...WITH A GRADUAL NEWD SHIFT/FOCUS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO UPSTATE NY BY 00Z. VERY MOIST PROFILES AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION BUT SHOULD PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...ROUGHLY 35-40KT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...20-30KT...IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENT ORIENTATIONS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS UPPER SPEED MAX LIFTS NEWD ACROSS NY INTO SRN CANADA. ...NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OF 30-60M WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES WILL...HOWEVER...ENABLE MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD WITH TIME SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. EARLY IN THIS EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD NOT DISPLAY A STRONG CAPPING SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION FRIDAY EVENING...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING BY AFTERNOON. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SERN SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA WILL BE ONE ZONE OF POTENTIAL INITIATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS VEERED LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS REGION AFTER DARK IT APPEARS A CLUSTER OF SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE...THEN PROPAGATE SSEWD TOWARD NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS THEN DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED. FARTHER NORTH...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG BOUNDARY FROM NERN MT INTO ND SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES TOWARD NCNTRL PORTIONS OF SD LATE IN THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DARROW.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 13:00:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 08:00:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407311259.i6VCxTD29850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311257 SWODY1 SPC AC 311255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL STC 30 ENE MCW 40 NNW OTM P35 STJ BIE PIR 55 S GDV GDV ISN 70 NNE ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL CON POU ABE CXY AOO 25 SSE DUJ ART 35 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TYR DYR 25 W LUK 35 E TOL FNT HTL MBL 30 NNW MMO COU LTS 25 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK SJT TYR ...CONT... 85 S GBN 20 SE PHX INW 75 NNE INW 55 WSW FMN 35 SSE MTJ 40 SSW CAG 40 NE VEL 50 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC RBL 30 SE EKA 30 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR EUG 55 NE BKE 60 E S80 35 E 3TH 65 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PA TO NRN NY AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION IS COMMENCING...TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL MIDSUMMER REGIME. 4-CORNERS AREA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AS WILL RIDGE EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LS -- WEAKENS AND ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS JAMES BAY REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BROAD BELT OF WNWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM SRN BC ESEWD TO WI...AND 70-80 KT 250 MB SPEED MAX ALONG AND JUST N OF CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...NEARLY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFFSHORE CAPE MENDOCINO WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED OVER ERN UPPER MI WITH WEAK COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS IA. EXPECT BOTH LOW AND FRONT TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NEWD...AND AS [PARENT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS JAMES BAY. MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS IN NERN STATES INSTEAD WILL BE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NY SWWD ACROSS ERN KY. FARTHER W...WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER ERN MT...CENTRAL/WRN SD AND WRN ND -- ALONG WITH TROUGH EXTENDING ESEWD TOWARD SRN MN. ...NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST... HEIGHT RISES ALOFT OF 30-60 M -- ALONG WITH NEWD ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM HIGHER TERRAIN -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. THEREFORE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED OR ALTOGETHER SUPPRESSED...DESPITE LARGE BUOYANCY RESULTING FROM INCREASING LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE MOISTURE/HEATING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CORRIDOR...BEST POTENTIAL ATM APPEARS TO BE OVER ERN SD/SWRN MN AREA WHERE CAP MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE WILL INCREASE FROM ABOUT 1000 J/KG WRN DAKOTAS TO 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE BETWEEN ABR AND NWRN IA. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MAY TURN SSEWD AS SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY CAPPING. AFTER DARK...ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AIR MASS JUST ABOVE SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL. TSTMS MAY THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TO SWD DOWN MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ...NERN CONUS... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY HEATS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F IN INFLOW AIR. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND FROM BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. LOW LCL AND RELATIVELY LARGE VALUES OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE THAT ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO...BUT THIS IS A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK THAN FOR DAMAGING WIND. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT WHILE MLCAPE INCREASES SWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DURING 15-18Z TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS WRN NY AND WRN PA...PROGRESSING EWD THROUGHOUT DAY. EXPECT 150-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH AND 20-30 KT VECTOR SHEAR THROUGH LOWEST 2 KM. MEANWHILE...HEATING AND MOISTURE AT SFC WILL OVERCOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE CENTRAL PA...BECOMING LESS THAN 500 J/KG ALONG CANADIAN BORDER. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 00Z...WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND OF MOST OF REMAINING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 16:08:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 11:08:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407311607.i6VG7rD22614@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311602 SWODY1 SPC AC 311600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE DVL STC ALO 30 SSE DSM 40 NNW FNB OLU PIR BIS 55 NE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL CON POU ABE CXY AOO DUJ SYR 35 ENE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 30 NNW GBN 40 SE IGM 30 WSW GCN 45 S 4BL 35 SSE MTJ 30 SW CAG 40 ENE VEL 45 NNE ENV 30 NNW WMC 25 W RBL 20 SE EKA 50 WNW MFR 25 E EUG 30 NNE BKE 65 E S80 45 E 3TH 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FNT 20 E HTL MBL 30 N MMO 35 W JEF 30 WNW JLN 30 SE CDS 30 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK 25 SW SJT BWD 30 S PRX 60 SW JBR 40 SE PAH 15 ESE OWB 30 W LUK 40 E TOL 15 ESE FNT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...PA/NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES THIS MORNING...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS /35-45 KNOTS/ EXTENDING FROM OH/WV ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO LIES ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF PA/NY/VT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY MOIST...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TO MODERATE LEVELS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON. ETA/ETAKF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF VT/NH/MA BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR GGW. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY EVENING. A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS CAP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD/EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IA/NEB DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 20:11:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 15:11:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200407312010.i6VKAXD31838@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 312004 SWODY1 SPC AC 312003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 15 NNE AUG 15 SSE LCI 30 N EWR 35 WSW DCA 15 NW MRB 30 E PSB BGM 30 WNW PBG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 25 NNE BRD 70 S DLH 10 NNW LSE 35 E ALO 40 SW ALO 55 ENE OMA YKN ABR 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 25 SE FST BWD TXK 25 WNW UOX BWG SDF 10 NW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS IGM CDC EVW TWF WMC 25 W RBL 15 SSE EKA 50 NNE 4BK 20 S SLE BKE 65 E S80 MSO 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 25 ENE ELO 35 W IMT MKE IRK 25 SE EMP DDC EHA ROW ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF ERN PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... ...ERN PA AND NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WITH A BAND OF 35-45 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED BACK IN OH...A THICK AREA OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT EWD FOR ABOUT 150-200 NM. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS STRENGTHENED THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AIDED IN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE INSTABILITY TO MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN SMALL BOWS WITHIN THE LINE AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING...SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN NWRN ND AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THIS FEATURE IN SERN ND BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN MN AND THEN SEWD INTO CENTRAL IA. LOW LEVEL JET FROM CENTRAL KS NWD INTO SWRN MN HAS INCREASED THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO ADVECTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY TO BECOME THE GREATER THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA TONIGHT. ...ERN NEB/NERN KS AND NRN MO... HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN WRN SD AND WILL MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS HAVE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING AS THEY ENCOUNTERED THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO INGEST RICHER MOISTURE. THEREFORE ...ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ATTM. ..IMY.. 07/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.