[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301936
SWODY1
SPC AC 301934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 30 S AZO
30 ENE MMO 25 SSE MLI 25 WSW DBQ 25 S CWA IMT 35 E PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE 10 NNE
LMT 50 NW TVL 30 N MER 20 SW PRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY...THOUGH WARM SECTOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6.5 C/KM
ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY.  AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPER LAPSE
RATES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF
200-300 J/KG AND VIGOROUS UVV SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS. 
FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP 00-03Z VCNTY ERN IA/SRN WI AND THEN
MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

...COASTAL ORE/NRN-CNTRL CA...
ONSHORE FLOW OF MOIST PACIFIC BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL
BE ALONG/WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING.  STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...BUT WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

..RACY.. 12/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.