[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290601
SWODY1
SPC AC 290559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE YKN 30 E MKT
30 NE LSE 35 E MSN 15 WNW CGX 25 ENE BMI 40 SSE UIN 35 NE MKC 20 NNE
BIE 15 ENE YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AST 35 NNW MFR
50 WSW MHS 30 SSW RBL 50 NE BFL 30 ESE NID 20 NW LAS 35 SSW SGU 35
ESE GCN 25 SW SOW 20 WSW SAD 25 SE FHU.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z ETA FORECAST TRACK FOR TODAY OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH /NOW
MOVING ENEWD INTO CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS TRENDING MORE WWD
TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...BUT REMAINS WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST.

...SRN CA EWD TO AZ...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD E OF CA.  THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW OFF
THE PACIFIC WILL AID IN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO AZ. 
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRIKES MAY OCCUR FARTHER NEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LACK OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE THIS FAR EAST.

...MID MS VALLEY WWD TO ERN NEB...
ETA/GFS DIFFER /GFS STRONGER AND MORE WEST/ WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS
HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH.  DESPITE
THIS DIFFERENCE AND GIVEN THE WWD TREND IN THE LAST FEW ETA
RUNS...THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
MID MS VALLEY HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO ERN NEB.

SURFACE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER INTO NRN MO BY
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO IA TONIGHT.  SWLY LLJ
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 50+
KT AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THIS AREA.  STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLJ COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS TSTM THREAT
WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD EWD AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. 

...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ORE/NWRN CA...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND
MID-LEVELS COOL IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO NRN CA.

..PETERS.. 12/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.