[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280058
SWODY1
SPC AC 280057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 20 SE SJC
30 NE SBA 20 WNW RAL 25 NNW SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED
AT 30.5N/130.6W ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW. 
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND REACH THE
CENTRAL/SRN CA COASTAL AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA
CONTINUED TO SHOW CLOUD-WATER STRIKES WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN CA SWD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THEN
SSWWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST.  SSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. 

LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CA COAST...AND THEN SWD TOWARD SRN CA WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSES INTO FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA BY 12Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES.  THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
REMAINS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL INTO SRN CA
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AFTER 06-09Z. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS.. 12/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.