[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190446
SWODY1
SPC AC 190445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY/TONIGHT OVER THE CONUS
WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST AND
INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. IN IT/S WAKE...A RATHER DEEP
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH
ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH/CHINOOK WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING SWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

...GREAT LAKES...
DESPITE A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER AND JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON /ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD/...BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND PASSAGE OF
SURFACE HIGH TO THE SE SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NORMAL ORIENTATION OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO LONG LAKE AXES SHOULD LIMIT WATER TO AIR
MOISTURE/HEAT FLUXES AND ANY RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

..MEAD.. 12/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.