[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050555
SWODY1
SPC AC 050553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF MAF 45 SW
SPS 25 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 40 ESE BWG 25 WNW LGC 20 W PFN ...CONT... 40
ENE CRP 25 WNW ALI 40 NW LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE SECOND / LARGER TROUGH -- NOW OFF THE WEST COAST --
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. 

WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH MOIST GULF AIRMASS WILL SPREAD
INLAND OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
LACK OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. 


...SERN TX / SWRN LA...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD.
 HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FORECAST LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE OR
ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK / LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD FORECAST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION.  THOUGH UPDRAFT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF /
TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION SUPPORT A LOW-END THREAT FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.

WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LOW-PROBABILITY THUNDER
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. 
PERIODS OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...AS WELL AS DURING THE EVENING /
OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW -- AND CONDITIONAL
UPON STORM DEVELOPMENT.

..GOSS.. 12/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.