From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 00:52:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 19:52:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412010054.iB10sHE17332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010052 SWODY1 SPC AC 010050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BVE 40 E LUL 35 SW BNA 15 NNE LUK 20 SSE UNI 25 WNW BKW 20 N GSP 30 E CSG 25 SSE CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OH VLY BY 12Z. RATHER EXPANSIVE WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. THE STRONGEST TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY HIGHER. BUT...GIVEN THAT STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND REMNANT CAP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS SRN AL. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN HAS MOISTENED YIELDING WEAK BUOYANCY. GIVEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT YET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...A FEW ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE FORCED TO A COLD ENOUGH LAYER /BELOW MINUS 20C/ TO PRODUCE SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID TN VLY TO THE OH RVR. ..RACY.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 05:24:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 00:24:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412010526.iB15QWE29962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010524 SWODY1 SPC AC 010522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 10 SW EPM ...CONT... 30 SE EWN NHK 15 NE CXY 15 NW BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MS RVR WILL AMPLIFY AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT...SITUATED ALONG THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL SWEEP EWD AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL NON-SEVERE TSTMS...1/ ERN MID-ATLANTIC-NEW ENGLAND AND 2/ ERN NC AREA. 1/ STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL PA/NY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE FORCED TO AOB MINUS 20C. THUS...SPORADIC LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH... PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL NY/ERN PA NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 2/ FARTHER S...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE... THOUGH...AND GIVEN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 12:59:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 07:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412011301.iB1D1mE25635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011258 SWODY1 SPC AC 011257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 25 S DOV 15 ENE CXY 25 WSW PSB 15 ENE ERI ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 10 SW EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS/NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AXIS OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR YYZ WILL NEVERTHELESS LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS PATTERN FAVORS FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY. ...PA/NJ/NY INTO NEW ENG... A NARROW BAND OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT...PARTIALLY EVIDENCED BY WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET...WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT CROSSING PA/NJ/NY AND NEW ENG. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH WRN NEW ENG BY 17Z...AND MOVE OFF THE MA CST BY 20Z. SOMEWHAT SLOWER EWD PROGRESS APPEARS LIKELY IN ME. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION...BAND OF INTENSE /60+ KT/ LOW TO MID LEVEL WSW FLOW ACCOMPANYING EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED UPRIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN OBSERVED DEGREE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY /PER COOL AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS AT BUF...PIT AND IAD/. THUS...ANY CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. FARTHER S...DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND ERN NC. THUS... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY...DESPITE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AT TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..CORFIDI.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 16:18:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 11:18:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412011620.iB1GKME02419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011612 SWODY1 SPC AC 011611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING CONVECTION...THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FAVOR NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...COLD/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE...COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT GENERAL TSTM FORECAST. ..EVANS.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 19:45:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 14:45:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412011947.iB1Jl6E23665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011945 SWODY1 SPC AC 011943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 00:22:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 19:22:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412020024.iB20OAE01095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020020 SWODY1 SPC AC 020018 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF MAINE THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE NATION...WITH A DRY...COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 05:05:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 00:05:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412020507.iB257UE26525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020505 SWODY1 SPC AC 020503 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL EXPAND EWD...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER CA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY... RESULTING IN STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN TX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME ELY...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..IMY.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 12:47:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 07:47:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412021248.iB2CmxE26378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021246 SWODY1 SPC AC 021244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ACROSS DEEP S TX...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS. BUT STABLE AND LARGELY DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RISK FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 16:10:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 11:10:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412021612.iB2GClE02200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021605 SWODY1 SPC AC 021605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1005 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF U.S. WITH CONFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..AFWA.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 19:31:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 14:31:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412021933.iB2JXCE26556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021931 SWODY1 SPC AC 021930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0130 PM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF FORECAST AREA WITH CONFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING A FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..AFWA.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 00:44:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 19:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412030046.iB30k7E19528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030043 SWODY1 SPC AC 030041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH THE RESULTING COOL AND DRY AIR MASS UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 05:02:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 00:02:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412030504.iB354qE22839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030502 SWODY1 SPC AC 030501 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...WLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE FROM EXTREME SRN CA EWD ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UVV/S AND MOISTENING MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO MORE THAN A 5-10K FOOT DEPTH BETWEEN LFC AND EL...SO THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..IMY.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 12:57:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 07:57:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412031259.iB3CxDE02850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031257 SWODY1 SPC AC 031255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 45 S ALI 10 N ALI 25 SSW VCT 45 SW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST... 12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE OF 200-300 J/KG BASED NEAR 750 MB...WHICH IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN SHOWN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS. THIS INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ...WRN NY... A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING S OF BUF ALONG THE ERIE LAKE SHORE. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHERE WEAK BUOYANCY BELOW 500 MB WAS AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ASCENT SPREADS E OF LAKE ERIE...AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER FROM WSWLY TO WNWLY. ..THOMPSON.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 16:35:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 11:35:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412031637.iB3GbVE20402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031633 SWODY1 SPC AC 031631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 45 S ALI 10 N ALI 25 SSW VCT 45 SW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF FAST ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING FROM CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST ACROSS TX. WEAK EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF UVVS ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 19:38:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 14:38:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412031939.iB3JdxE23407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031937 SWODY1 SPC AC 031935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 15 SW VCT 30 WSW HOU 15 W LCH 20 NNW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/LA COAST... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS GULF COAST. WHILE LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT VWPS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WAA ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER. LARGER-SCALE FORCING ACROSS REGION IS ALSO LIKELY BEING AUGMENTED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PERSISTENCE OF THESE FORCING MECHANISMS AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX/LA COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 00:36:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 19:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412040038.iB40cXE07327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040035 SWODY1 SPC AC 040033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 WSW HOU 55 S LFK 30 NW LFT 40 SSE GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SW OF THE CA COAST DIVERTS STRONG SRN BRANCH ACROSS NRN MEXICO EWD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE NRN BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ESEWD JUST S OF THE FL KEYS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 250-300 MB FLOW ALONG SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT. RAOB DATA INDICATES STRONG ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO CONTINUE THRU 04/06Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 04:53:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 23:53:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412040454.iB44spE31802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040452 SWODY1 SPC AC 040450 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 50 N PSX 35 S AUS 25 SSE JCT 25 NNW SJT 30 WSW CDS 25 WNW GAG 35 SSW ICT 35 SW JLN 40 SSE PGO 35 SW PBF 25 W CBM 0A8 30 WSW TOI PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SW OF SBA NEAR 33N 123W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA BEFORE MINORING OUT AND MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BY 05/12Z. MODELS SEEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WITH THE ETA MODEL PLACING A SERIES OF LOWS ALONG THE PLAINS. WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE MAIN LOW WOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. THUS... IF THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE THE MODEL ENSEMBLE DIFFERS IS THE ONSET OF UVVS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. ONE PERSISTENT FEATURE IS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. BAND OF 100 TO 130 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN MEXICO EWD AND NEWD INTO TX BY AFTN THEN INTO ERN OK BY 05/12Z. MODELS ALSO BRING A MID LEVEL BRANCH ACROSS S CENTRAL TX INTO WRN LA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PLACES AREAS NRN TX AND OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGIONS TO ENHANCE ASCENT. SLY TO SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-45 KT ACROSS W CENTRAL TX INTO OK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ENHANCING ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 05/06Z IN THE VICINITY OF 850 MB WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX. MODELS ALSO GENERATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OF 6.5C/KM DUE TO WELL MIXED AIR OFF THE SRN PLATEAU WHICH WOULD PLAY AS A BOUNDARY PROMOTING LIFT FOR THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY FROM CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LA SEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL FL. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS BOTH AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 13:01:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 08:01:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412041303.iB4D3IE28323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041300 SWODY1 SPC AC 041258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 50 N PSX 15 SW SAT 40 SSE JCT 20 N JCT 40 WNW MWL 15 W END 15 E PNC 25 E TUL 45 NW TXK 40 W ELD 35 NNW JAN 20 W MEI 40 N MOB 35 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TCS 30 SE SAD 45 N TUS 25 E PHX 45 SE PRC 25 SW INW 30 WSW GUP 25 NE GNT 10 SE ABQ 45 SE ONM 30 SSW TCS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME. WITHIN THIS SRN BRANCH...A MID LEVEL LOW NOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS AZ/NM TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A BROAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ/NM/SW TX PRECEDES THE SRN CA TROUGH...WHILE MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NW GULF COAST. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA PATTERN FROM CENTRAL AND ERN OK AND TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER W...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS AZ/NM...WHILE THE MID LEVELS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST. THE 12Z TUS SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING LATER TODAY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...GIVEN OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE PATH OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE RIM COUNTRY OF ERN AZ INTO NM...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 15:23:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 10:23:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412041524.iB4FOrE10987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041521 SWODY1 SPC AC 041520 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT CLL AUS 10 SE DRT 20 SSE P07 MAF CDS FSI TXK ELD JAN PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVC 30 SE SAD 45 N TUS 25 E PHX 45 SE PRC INW GUP 25 NE GNT ABQ 45 SE ONM SVC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW OFF THE CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...INTO NM/WEST TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY OVER WEST TX...SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TX LATE TONIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z ACROSS MUCH OF OK. HOWEVER... THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW. ...LA/MS/AL... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE LA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD...PREVENTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...NM/AZ... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM. STRONG UPWARD FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...ALONG WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..HART.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 19:52:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 14:52:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412041954.iB4JsGE14121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041952 SWODY1 SPC AC 041950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 45 SSE CLL AUS 10 SE DRT 20 SSE P07 MAF 10 E CDS 30 ESE FSI TXK ELD 25 SSE MEI 15 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVC 35 NNE FHU 30 W TUS 15 ENE GBN 35 SSE PRC INW GUP 25 NE GNT ABQ 45 SE ONM SVC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ONTO THE SRN CA COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY. WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY BROAD SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA WAA/...THIS MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL ENHANCE NWD/NEWD MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE GULF COAST. NONETHELESS...THIS WEAK INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. ...AZ/NM... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL AZ. POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD INTO REGION. ..MEAD.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 00:24:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 19:24:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412050026.iB50Q6E09080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050023 SWODY1 SPC AC 050021 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS 45 NNE BPT 25 SSE ESF 65 NE MOB 25 SSW CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SIX TO 12 HOURS OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING SWRN AZ SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE -- S OF FRONT OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL GULF -- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...PRECLUDING ANY SURFACE-BASED THUNDER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY DESPITE LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL THUNDER AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM EXTREME SERN TX EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT ANY ELEVATED STORMS TO OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD AND TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 05:55:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 00:55:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412050557.iB55vME20190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050555 SWODY1 SPC AC 050553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF MAF 45 SW SPS 25 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 40 ESE BWG 25 WNW LGC 20 W PFN ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 25 WNW ALI 40 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE SECOND / LARGER TROUGH -- NOW OFF THE WEST COAST -- MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOIST GULF AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LACK OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN TX / SWRN LA... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK / LIMITED IN COVERAGE. NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD FORECAST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION. THOUGH UPDRAFT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF / TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION SUPPORT A LOW-END THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LOW-PROBABILITY THUNDER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...AS WELL AS DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW -- AND CONDITIONAL UPON STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 12:52:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 07:52:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412051254.iB5CsGE27999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051252 SWODY1 SPC AC 051250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VBG 30 NE OXR 25 WSW TRM 25 SW BLH 65 WNW GBN 25 NE GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE MRF 35 NW MAF 10 S LBB 55 SSW CDS 45 WSW SPS 30 NNE MWL 50 WSW TYR 25 WSW SHV 25 WNW ELD 35 W POF 10 WNW MDH 10 N OWB 10 SW LEX 15 SSW JKL 30 WNW HSS 35 E CHA 20 S ANB 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SW GLS 50 ESE SAT 55 SSE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD OVER EXTREME SRN CA/AZ AND ADJACENT NW MEXICO. A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE TX/LA COASTS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...N/NE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA. LATER TONIGHT...ASCENT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER W CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH TIME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /AS EVIDENCED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES W AND SW OF LAX/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...AND EARLY TONIGHT INTO SW AZ ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. ..THOMPSON.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 16:18:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 11:18:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412051620.iB5GKOE22391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051616 SWODY1 SPC AC 051614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE VBG 30 NE OXR TRM BLH GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX LFK GGG 50 NNW HOT UNO MVN SDF LEX 25 NNW TRI AVL ATL MGM PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST TX INTO TN VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK/KS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MON MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS TX/LA...TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION HAVE GENERATED A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST TX INTO MO/AR/MS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO KY/TN/GA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SOUTHWEST FLANK OF PRECIP SHIELD MAY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING AND LIMITED FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ...CA/AZ... POTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ..HART.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 19:44:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 14:44:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412051946.iB5JkTE25754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051945 SWODY1 SPC AC 051943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE VBG 30 NE OXR TRM BLH GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 25 NNE CLL 20 NNE TYR 45 ESE FSM UNO MVN SDF LEX 25 NNW TRI AVL ATL 15 NNE TOI 25 S CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E TX INTO THE TN VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ESTABLISHED FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY IS SUPPORTING LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL LOW PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT JUST ONSHORE OF THE TX/LA COASTS...NWD ALONG LLJ AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE GREATEST INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IS OCCURRING. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...EXPECT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INHERENT TSTM THREAT TO DEVELOP AS FAR NE AS THE OH VALLEY ALONG LLJ AXIS. WHILE SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ...SRN CA/AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. LDS DATA INDICATE PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY SE OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE MORE EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CA AND AZ. ..MEAD.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 06:00:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 01:00:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412060602.iB662OE03758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060600 SWODY1 SPC AC 060558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE TPL ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 20 SE PAH 45 NE MKL 25 ENE TUP 40 NE HEZ 45 WSW POE 35 ESE TPL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PSX 10 NW CRP 40 ENE LRD 25 NW LRD 20 E DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS ADM 20 ENE FSM 35 E UNO 35 SW HUF 55 WNW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 ESE HOB 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 30 NNW SZL 40 WSW PIA 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 15 E HTS 20 NE MGM 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX / FAR SERN OK / PARTS OF AR / WRN TN / NWRN MS / NRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. / NWRN MEXICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY 85 TO 90 KT JET -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE...WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE A SECONDARY WARM FRONT -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST GULF AIRMASS -- NOW MOVING NWD ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS TX / OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN ON TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... MAIN BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN CONUS ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER FAR SERN CO / SWRN KS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN / MOVE TOWARD S CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX...WHILE WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST GULF AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ RETREATS NWD ACROSS SERN OK / SRN AR / THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDINESS / LIGHT PRECIPITATION...UVV AND MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY S OF WARM FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE / INTENSIFY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF E TX / SERN OK / AR / LA...AS WELL AS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX. VERY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- IN THE 65 TO 85 KT RANGE -- ABOVE STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BECOME SEVERE / SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING / SHEAR AND MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERE FAVOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT SWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY. WITH TIME...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY. INCREASING LINEAR CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG /60-PLUS/ WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ALONG SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 12:46:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 07:46:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412061248.iB6CmtE09061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061246 SWODY1 SPC AC 061245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CLL 10 E ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 40 N DYR 50 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 55 W JAN 30 WSW POE 20 NW CLL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 45 ENE COT 55 WNW COT 25 NNW DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS ADM 20 ENE FSM 35 E UNO 35 SW HUF 55 WNW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 20 SE ELP 30 ENE ALM 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 35 ENE MKC 30 SE MLI 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 10 NNE 5I3 10 N SEM 35 SSW MOB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NE TX ACROSS SRN/ERN AR AND NRN LA TO NW MS AND WRN TN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA.... ...TX TO MS VALLEY AREA... A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NW MEXICO AND SE AZ WILL EJECT ENEWD TO OK BY LATE TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS OK/SRN KS...AND THIS DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO CENTRAL/NRN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY TO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NRN/NWRN EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WHERE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM LFK AND TYR NEWD TO ABOUT MEM. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN A DEEP MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME /FROM NRN MEXICO NEWD TO THE MS RIVER/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ACROSS TX...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS LA/SRN AR/NW MS MAY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR PEAK VALUES BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE MUCH TODAY OVER THAT ALREADY NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC BAND ACROSS SRN NM TO MOVE INTO W CENTRAL TX AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NW TX AND OK TO MO/IL OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE INVOF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE STRONGER FORCING ENCOUNTERS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD INTO THE RICHER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN EXTENT LIMITED BY A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER S TX. THE INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TX MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE EXPECTED LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 40-70 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW FROM E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER E...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR/INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NE TX ACROSS NW LA/SE AR AND NW MS LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SE TX/LA/MS...BUT A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. ..THOMPSON.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 16:30:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 11:30:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412061633.iB6GXEE28260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061631 SWODY1 SPC AC 061629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CLL 10 E ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 40 N DYR 50 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 55 W JAN 30 WSW POE 20 NW CLL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 45 ENE COT 55 WNW COT 25 NNW DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS 10 SSW ADM 35 ENE FSM 30 NNW UNO ALN 20 S DNV 50 NW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ELP 30 ENE ALM 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 35 ENE MKC 30 SE MLI 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 10 NNE 5I3 10 N SEM 35 SSW MOB ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX...ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 12Z ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROUGH IS STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ...WEST/CENTRAL TX TODAY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR MAF. THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS AREA COULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MAY ALSO ALLOW STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ...EAST TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...WEST TN...NWRN MS... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AS STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION FIELD OVERSPREADS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING AT MID LEVELS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THIS AREA WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE IN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND INTO PARTS OF TN/MS. ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY RACE THROUGH THIS AREA WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THAT DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK CAPE VALUES. ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER MO/IL LATE TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW MAY TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO REGION FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. FOCUSED ASCENT IN VICINITY OF LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A NARROW LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/SERN IND...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. ..HART.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 20:16:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 15:16:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412062019.iB6KJ1E29891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062014 SWODY1 SPC AC 062012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ESF 15 NNE LFK 20 WNW TPL 20 SSE BWD 45 WNW MWL 40 ESE SPS 40 SW PGO 10 N LIT 60 ENE PBF 20 NNW GWO 35 SSW GWO 40 WNW ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 S SAT 55 NNE DRT 20 N SJT 20 SSW LTS 30 N OKC 15 SW VIH 10 NW HUF 40 SE IND 20 S SDF 45 N HSV 15 SSW CBM 40 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 SE CNM 25 NNW AMA 45 NE GAG 35 E MKC 10 SW UIN 45 NNW LAF 30 ENE FWA 25 N DAY 25 SSE DAY 50 E RMG 30 SSW MOB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...SERN OK...SRN AR...AND NRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...NCNTRL TX/SRN OK ACROSS TEXARKANA AREA... POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS N TX THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AND CONTINUE TO ACT UPON MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STRONG FORCING WAS ALREADY SUSTAINING A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM SWRN OK SWD ACROSS NWRN TX TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE AS DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ALSO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING. 18Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV INDICATED LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING...SHOULD PROVIDE A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TSTM UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN EMERGENT LINEAR STRUCTURE...WEAK CAPE...AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SUCH A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT...MAIN HAZARD ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL LINE. ...SERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY... WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS SERN OK AND SRN AR AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR ABI. AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES FROM SERN TX NEWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS PLUME OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...AS STRONGER FORCING...FLOW FIELDS...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT ISOLD SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM HOU AREA ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER. EVENTUALLY THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THESE REGIONS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NERN TX GULF COAST AND AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE MS RIVER AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. ..CARBIN.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 05:37:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 00:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412080540.iB85e1E05327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080538 SWODY1 SPC AC 080537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST TUE DEC 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 45 SE CLL 30 SSE TXK 40 ENE PBF 35 SE MKL 20 WSW CHA 10 NE RMG 15 ESE CSG 15 NE MAI 30 SSE CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES / SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF LATE THIS EVENING. GULF PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD INTO ERN TX AND GULF COAST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND POSSIBLY A VERY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX EWD ACROSS LA INTO MS... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE N CENTRAL / NWRN GULF ATTM S OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL DIURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX / NRN LA IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT. THOUGH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / FORCING IS ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT WITHIN WARM SECTOR...GENERAL / BROAD WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. WITH 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES / WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE MOST PART -- LIKELY EVEN WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW / RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST -- THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE / SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO MS AND PERHAPS AL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGEST ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 12:47:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 07:47:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412081250.iB8Co2E30084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081247 SWODY1 SPC AC 081245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 ESE TPL 25 W TXK 35 SSW JBR 15 SSW CKV 30 NNE CSV 10 ESE TYS 20 SW AND 20 S MCN 30 ENE AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. S OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. A LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER SW KS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS KS/OK/TX AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...INDUCING SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE RETURNING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...NW GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY... INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA PATTERN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX/LA. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD AS FAR NEWD AS TN AND NRN AL/GA LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. MODIFIED REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB...WHICH AGREES REASONABLY WELL WITH ETA/ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT THE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPER THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS...AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST DESTABILIZATION INLAND. STILL...MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ AND INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE GROUND SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SE TX THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL MS OVERNIGHT. ...NRN ORE AND WA COASTS... 12Z UIL SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION... WHILE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAS REVEALED ISOLATED STRIKES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WILL BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA. ..THOMPSON.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 16:17:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 11:17:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412081619.iB8GJhE08348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081614 SWODY1 SPC AC 081612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP CLL HOT JBR BWG LOZ HSS AND MCN 10 WNW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NM...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SYSTEM UT/AZ...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES JUST OFF THE TX/LA COAST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. GULF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR GLS/LCH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 09Z ETAKF SOLUTION INDICATES A STRONGER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAKER INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERSISTENT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..HART.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 19:35:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 14:35:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412081938.iB8Jc3E17712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081935 SWODY1 SPC AC 081934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 20 W CLL 15 ENE LIT DYR BWG 25 E HSS 45 N ATL LGC TOI 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI 55 NE PDX PDX 25 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/GULF COASTAL AREAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO THE TEXAS COAST. MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION IN BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS CURRENTLY CAPPING CONVECTION NEAR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...MORE RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR. LIFTED PARCELS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE MID -LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN COOLER. DEEP CONVECTION...INCLUDING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL THEN DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ABOVE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HAIL...AND HAIL SIZES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/CAPE. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. EVEN ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MITIGATED BY PRESENCE OF SHALLOW NOCTURNAL NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. WARM SECTOR MAY SPREAD INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. AS INFLUENCE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES...INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE HOUSTON/LAKE CHARLES AREAS BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY STRONG AS BROAD 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE UPPER FORCING SUPPORTS NARROW SQUALL LINE ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN LESS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH REGARD TO DEPTH OF STABLE SURFACE LAYER...WITH MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW INCREASING INTO 40-50+ KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST NEAR OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ..KERR.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 01:04:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 20:04:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412090106.iB916QE03676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090103 SWODY1 SPC AC 090102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 30 N BPT 20 NNW LFT 25 N HUM 45 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 30 E NIR 50 N NIR 20 SSE AUS 20 SE TPL 45 SSE PGO 15 WSW ARG 20 SSE PAH 15 NNE BNA 15 SSW CSV 50 SSW TYS 30 W AND 35 W CAE 45 ESE CAE 20 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 SE MCN 35 ESE CSG 35 W DHN 10 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A SMALL PORTION OF THE NERN TX GULF COAST AND THE LA GULF COAST... ...NE TX AND LA GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING TWO FAST MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE LEAD IMPULSE WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS...WHILE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER W TX. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS ERN TX AND LA IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS PROCESS HAS RESULTED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON AND NORTH OF A COASTAL WARM FRONT SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A VCT-GLS-BVE LINE. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...WHILE CURRENTLY CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREADS QUICKLY EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LA ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE...OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED...STORMS. SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR POSSIBLY SPREADING ONSHORE WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SO CLOSE TO SHORE...HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SUPPORT A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA FROM THE SABINE RIVER EAST ACROSS COASTAL LA. ..CARBIN.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 06:02:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 01:02:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412090604.iB964t925289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090602 SWODY1 SPC AC 090600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM 40 ENE JAN 40 S MSL 20 NNE GAD 35 W ATL 20 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 ESE BPT MLU 15 ESE POF 20 SW BLV 35 SSE SPI 10 WNW CMI 45 S SBN 20 S TOL 30 NW HLG 45 NE CRW 45 NW TRI 15 WSW AVL HKY 25 SE LYH 15 NE RIC 15 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MS AND MUCH OF AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AREAS THIS PERIOD AS AN INTENSE SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...PROMOTE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS IL/IND AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS STRONG AMPLIFICATION...A DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LA AND PORTIONS OF MS/AL AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE SAME UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A NARROW WARM SECTOR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. BY LATE TONIGHT...VERY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 120-150M WILL OCCUR FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS SRN AL... THERE ARE A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE FORECAST OF INSTABILITY AND INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SERN LA INTO PARTS OF SRN MS. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND FORCING APPEAR TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE OF HAIL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...PERHAPS FROM THE SRN MS/AL BORDER AREAS ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. EVEN AS THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THESE AREAS INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS PERSISTING WITHIN TRAILING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COULD TAP INTO GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. ETA MODEL IS FCSTG A PLUME OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE MODEL...COUPLED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. WHILE SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM MS NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT /SEE BELOW/. ...ERN CAROLINAS... A DIFFICULT FCST ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND ETAKF...AS WELL AS THE LATEST NCEP-SREF...INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG/ WILL PRECEED THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SC AND ERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ETA AND GFS BOTH PRODUCE CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE ETAKF PRODUCES MUCH OF ITS QPF AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. VERY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN AREAS WOULD BE SEVERE. SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH SOME WIND AND TORNADO THREAT...MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...FRONTAL WAVE...FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A LATER UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF GREATER FCST CONSENSUS EVOLVES. ...TN/OH VALLEYS LATE... LITTLE CONSENSUS ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY LATEST GFS...BUT...AS NOTED ABOVE...STRONG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BASED ON THE LATEST ETA. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES THROUGH LATE EVENING. TSTMS...MOST LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD INCREASE AS DYNAMIC FORCING INTENSIFIES. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND TIME OF DAY...HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 12:53:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 07:53:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412091255.iB9Ctk929771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091253 SWODY1 SPC AC 091252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BVE 25 WSW LUL 40 NNE MEI 40 NW BHM 35 NNE GAD 25 ESE RMG 35 E LGC 20 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 30 WNW CTY ...CONT... 7R4 25 E GWO 40 SSE POF 15 SW MDH 25 ESE MVN 20 SSW BMG 25 W LUK 35 NNW HTS 25 WNW BKW 20 SSW BLF 35 SSE PSK 25 SE LYH 15 NE RIC 15 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SE LA/MS ACROSS AL TO NW GA TODAY.... ...SYNOPSIS... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER LA/AR WILL MOVE EWD TODAY TO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA NOW EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD AND RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD TO THE NRN GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE IA AREA TO THE OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT... RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH 35-50 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 50-70 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE SE MS/AL/NW GA AREA. ...SE LA/SE MS/AL/NW GA AREA TODAY... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES FROM SE LA NEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN AL...WITH THE CONVECTION GENERALLY ELEVATED TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG I-20. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MS NEAR A WAVE ON THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WAVE SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO AL THROUGH THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD OVER SRN AR/NW LA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 50 KT...AND 0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 NEAR AND E OF THE BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND...A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MS/TN/KY AREA BY TONIGHT... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO AREAS NEAR/S OF THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE BY TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MS RIVER. 06Z ETA SOUNDINGS MAY BE TOO UNSTABLE W/NW OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM BAND...OWING TO THE SHALLOW CONVECTION SCHEME. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN TN/KY AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE SMALL. ..THOMPSON.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 16:01:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 11:01:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412091603.iB9G3x916269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091557 SWODY1 SPC AC 091556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BVE LUL TCL GAD RMG AHN 45 ESE MCN 30 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TUP HOP SDF CRW SSU CHO DCA ACY ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...AL/GA/SC/NC... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL/GA HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN EASTERN AL/WESTERN GA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF REMAINING ACTIVITY...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS GA SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAX MUCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG. THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS IN THIS AREA. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST- NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SC/NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS RETURNING TO THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY. AS IN GA...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS TONIGHT. ...TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON... AIR MASS IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL. ETA MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION... WITH RUC/ETAKF SOLUTIONS SHOWING WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL IN THIS AREA TODAY. ..HART.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 20:03:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 15:03:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412092005.iB9K5E903225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092001 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W AQQ 10 NNW MCN 35 WSW AGS AGS 55 S CAE 40 NE SAV 25 E SAV ...CONT... 15 NE SSI 30 W JAX 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 WSW BVE 40 E LUL 15 WSW HOP 30 ENE SDF 30 NNW UNI 40 WSW MGW 10 N CHO DCA ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA AND SRN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TN PER WV IMAGERY... WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD TO THE NERN STATES. ...SERN STATES... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER 60-LOWER 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS GA AND ERN PORTIONS OF SC/NC. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING OVER ERN GA/SRN SC MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID TN VALLEY AND THE APPROACH OF DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROUGH COMBINED WITH WAA SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS NRN FL TO SRN SC. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED GIVEN CURRENT VEERED /I.E. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS/ FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING STORMS FROM SC TO NRN FL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OVERALL POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER NW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF KY SWWD TO NRN AL AS 120-150 M HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD OVER THIS AREA AND LEADING EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVES ATOP RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. ..PETERS.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 01:07:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 20:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412100109.iBA19w928449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100108 SWODY1 SPC AC 100106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABY 15 N MGM 25 S BHM 25 N BHM 45 N GAD 15 SSE CHA 50 NNW AHN 15 WSW GSP CLT 30 N SOP 20 NW RWI 40 NE RWI 40 WSW ECG 30 NNE EWN OAJ 25 ESE FLO 40 S FLO 30 N CHS 30 N SAV 40 W SAV 40 NE ABY 40 NNW ABY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 40 E LUL 35 NNW MEI 20 ESE TUP 45 SE MVN 25 SE MIE ZZV 25 SE HLG 35 SW MRB 20 WNW BWI ACY ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AL...NRN GA...AND SC... ...SOUTHEAST... EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DEPICT WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INHIBITION CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG FROM ERN AL ACROSS GA AND INTO SRN SC AND SERN NC. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT WAS ALSO SITUATED ACROSS THIS REGION...GENERALLY ALONG A BHM...ATL...NORTH OF CAE...TO GSB LINE. AS OUTLINED IN LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2526...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS AL/GA AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND BRINGS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE TN/OH VLYS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE FCST OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS MESOSCALE LIFT AND SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER TO THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...AND INCREASING FLOW...COULD RESULT SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOPING WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. STORM MOTION ACROSS GA ATTM WAS RESULTING IN CELLS CROSSING TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. ZONE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC NEAR THE BOUNDARY MIGHT ALSO FAVOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS CROSS THE WARM FRONT. INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GFS RUN AND LESS SO BY THE ETA. ACTIVITY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ANY MCS WILL TAP WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AND EXIST WITHIN HIGH SHEAR/LOW LFC ENVIRONMENT. THUS WIND AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE NEWD WITH TIME. ..CARBIN.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 05:04:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:04:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412100507.iBA57A906479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100504 SWODY1 SPC AC 100502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 50 ENE ABY 45 WSW AGS 15 WSW AHN 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 25 NW UOX 35 SSE POF 20 WNW CGI 40 ENE SLO 20 SW IND 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY THIS PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS STRONG TROUGH...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING FROM OH TO PA TODAY. AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE UNDERGOES OCCLUSION DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NJ COAST TO CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE ERN FLANK OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS FROM GA TO NC. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH THE DAY. ...CAROLINAS TO SERN VA... BAND OF STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY AS MESOSCALE ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM N FL TO SERN VA. ALTHOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE PRIMARILY TO WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 100KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK AND WILL DEPEND ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND EARLY MORNING RAOB DATA FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS. VERY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY...COULD DRIVE A FEW ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN SC AND WRN NC LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY/STEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. USUALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW TENDS TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS WARRANTED. ...FL... LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS FL DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CAPE/WEAK UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WIND THREAT. ...TN VLY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY WITHIN THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE QUICKLY UTILIZED BY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD CONTAIN HAIL. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONG FORCING...LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAKENING SHEAR WITHIN SLACK GRADIENT NEAR UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 12:45:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 07:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412101247.iBAClo929032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101244 SWODY1 SPC AC 101242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 25 WSW OAJ 25 NW EWN 25 SW ORF 15 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CTY 20 WNW JAX 10 SSE SAV 30 WNW CHS 35 ESE CAE 15 N CAE 40 ESE AHN 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 25 NW UOX 35 SSE POF 20 WNW CGI 40 ENE SLO 20 SW IND 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN NC/EXTREME SE VA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER AR EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF OH/TN VLY TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED 80+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING E/NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE BAND OF VERY STRONG SSWLY FLOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM AL/GA TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT LOWER LEVELS...PATTERN HAS BEEN LEFT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED BY AREAS OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WHICH AFFECTED THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE LAST 24 HRS. COLD FRONT NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR TN/MS VLY REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE-WISE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SE VA/NE NC SWWD INTO NE FL. ...ERN NC/EXTREME SE VA... A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST TIL ABOUT MID MORNING OVER PARTS OF ERN NC AND EXTREME SE VA...AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING SQUALL LINE. AREA VWP DATA CONFIRM MODEL FORECASTS WHICH SHOW DEEP SWLY SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASING AS SPEED MAX APPROACHES REGION. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QUASI-LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS. BUT LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP SHEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. ONE OR TWO OF THESE MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BRIEF BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...NRN/CNTRL FL... TAIL END OF SAME PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AFFECTING GA AND THE CAROLINAS ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. STRENGTH OF DEEP/UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...AOA 50 KTS...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL BOWS. BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. ...UPR TN VLY INTO SRN/CNTRL APLCNS... APPROACH OF COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH AR UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE... COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SERN U.S. TODAY. WHILE A FEW OF THESE MAY YIELD HAIL...BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND WEAKNESS OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..CORFIDI.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 16:25:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 11:25:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412101627.iBAGRC927704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101624 SWODY1 SPC AC 101622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AHN 25 ENE ATL 25 WSW RMG 45 WSW CHA 40 W CSV 60 SSE SDF 25 WSW HTS 25 N BKW 10 SSW SSU 20 SE PSK 20 SSE CLT 20 E AHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CTY 50 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 45 SE CAE 30 SSW CAE 45 W AGS 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 35 NNW TUP 30 NNE DYR 30 ESE MDH 45 N EVV 15 ENE BMG 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD FROM MS VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTED BY 100KT NWLY 500MB JET OK/KS ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY EXITED SERN U.S. WHILE TRAILING SWWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER OH/ERN KY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON DELMARVA AND MOVES UP THE COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. DEFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E/SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS. ...ERN KY/SRN WV SWD INTO NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN SC... COLD AIR ALOFT WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS 5-7K FT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING TO RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 500-800 J/KG DURING AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK WITH WLY FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT ACROSS ERN TN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. ...FL PENINSULA... TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SWD. MID LEVEL WARM AIR IS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LINE EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VICINITY OF THE LINE OF 30-40KT AND MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PRIMARILY BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CELLS IN THE LINE. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING. ..HALES.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 20:10:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 15:10:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412102012.iBAKCS902912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102008 SWODY1 SPC AC 102006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AHN 25 SE RMG 25 W RMG 45 ENE HSV 45 E BNA 60 SSE SDF 25 WSW HTS 10 S CRW 25 WNW SSU 30 SE PSK 20 SSE CLT 25 NE AHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 30 N DAB ...CONT... 30 E CHS 45 SE CAE 30 SSW CAE 45 W AGS 15 W ANB 15 ENE MSL 30 S CKV 30 SW OWB 40 SW BMG 15 ENE BMG 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AS A STRONG 100+ KT MID-UPPER LEVEL JET TRANSLATES TO THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...ERN KY/SRN WV SWD INTO NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN SC... UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KY/TN VALLEY ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KY TO NERN AL AND EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS NRN GA INTO WRN NC/SC WHERE VAD WIND DATA SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS 1-2 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO SRN FL PENINSULA. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/... WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD. 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS THREAT DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. ...SERN VA/ERN NC... EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A SMALL WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR ERN NC/SERN VA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER NEAR 50 N RWI...WHILE VIS IMAGERY INDICATED CU/MODERATE CU ALONG THE FRONT FROM 35 NW ORF TO 45 N CAE. DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED BY CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SC TO CENTRAL NC AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 00:40:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 19:40:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412110042.iBB0gI911947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110040 SWODY1 SPC AC 110038 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FMY 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 45 N ORF 20 ESE NHK 30 NNW SBY 15 E PHL 15 NNE EWR 30 E POU 15 SSW ORH 10 NE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW RIC 20 NNW SOP 50 SSE CLT 20 NNW CAE 25 NW AGS 20 NW MCN 10 NNW CSG 30 NW AUO 20 N ANB 35 WSW CHA 35 WNW CSV 35 W LOZ 15 NNW JKL 25 ENE CRW EKN 40 NNE SHD 25 NE CHO 60 SW RIC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET CORE...TSTMS WERE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY BEING FURTHER EXHAUSTED BY LARGE SCALE OVERTURNING. ...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NEAR TRIPLE POINT LOW AND COASTAL FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION FROM DELMARVA/NJ AREAS...NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPARSE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SRN FL... BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL. MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD SHORE FROM THE GULF AND COULD STILL MOVE OVER SWRN FL AND THE KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 05:19:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 00:19:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412110521.iBB5LK903887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110518 SWODY1 SPC AC 110517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL-ESTABLISHED NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH AND POLAR FRONT PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WRN U.S....AND EXTEND NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO CREST WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND THEN ADVANCE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODEST TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXIST WITH BOTH THE DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH/LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR GENERALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD RESTRICT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ..CARBIN.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 13:04:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 08:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412111306.iBBD6a909277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111304 SWODY1 SPC AC 111302 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. ERN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS COMPLEX UPPER IMPULSE...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS SWD INTO MIDDLE TN/NRN AL...CONTINUES ESEWD. A NARROW AXIS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE HUDSON VLY/WRN NEW ENG THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY AS LEADING EDGE OF IMPULSE ENCOUNTERS LINGERING AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE OVER REGION /PER 12Z ALB RAOB/. WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A FEW ELEVATED BUILDUPS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIGNIFICANT THUNDER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. FARTHER W...STRONG UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING SRN BC SHOULD MOVE SE INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/COLD AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATED LEFT EXIT REGION... MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR THUNDER. ..CORFIDI.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 16:00:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 11:00:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412111602.iBBG2M930446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111559 SWODY1 SPC AC 111557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD TROUGH ERN U.S. WILL BE SHIFTING EWD TO BE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALREADY WELL OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVITY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND SOME HEATING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EWD TO COAST DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORECAST REMAINS THAT ANY THUNDER THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS PM WILL BE ISOLATED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ..HALES.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 19:20:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 14:20:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412111922.iBBJMZ903134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111920 SWODY1 SPC AC 111919 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN ERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EAST OF A MD TO CENTRAL NC LINE. POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAINTAINING SBCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED CU FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..PETERS.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 00:44:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 19:44:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412120046.iBC0km902946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120045 SWODY1 SPC AC 120043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO ERN MD/DE. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX ROTATING NEWD THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION WHERE 00Z WAL SOUNDING INDICATED LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM. SINCE ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY THE NEXT HOUR SO PRIOR TO MOVING OFFSHORE...NO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL BE ADDED. ELSEWHERE...ENVIRONMENT HAS STABILIZED AS A RESULT OF EXPANSIVE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING INTO THE MS VALLEY...AND NO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 04:54:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 23:54:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412120456.iBC4uT908246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120454 SWODY1 SPC AC 120453 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HERE... WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEPTHS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND INHERENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..MEAD.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 04:59:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 23:59:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412120502.iBC520909805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120500 SWODY1 SPC AC 120458 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HERE... WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEPTHS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND INHERENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..MEAD.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 13:00:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 08:00:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412121302.iBCD2f931706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121300 SWODY1 SPC AC 121258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI 10 SSW BUF 15 N JHW ERI 30 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF 50 N ROC 50 WSW ART 25 NE ROC 30 NE BUF 25 N BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG /100+ KT/ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER ERN SD/SRN MN EXPECTED TO ELONGATE AND SETTLE SE INTO THE OH/MID MS VLYS THIS PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND BROADENS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. AT LWR LEVELS...DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOULD TRACK ESE TO NEAR TORONTO BY 12Z MONDAY. ...LWR GRT LKS... IN THE WAKE OF ONTARIO SURFACE LOW...FAIRLY DEEP/COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. UNDIRECTIONAL WSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER (SURFACE TO 700 MB) FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXES OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE OVER-WATER FETCH AND ENCOURAGE REGENERATIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT/CUMULUS PLUMES. COUPLED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 20 C AND LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR +10 C...UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME DEEP AND VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. THUS...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER 06Z. ..CORFIDI.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 16:13:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 11:13:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412121615.iBCGFg919513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121612 SWODY1 SPC AC 121610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF ART 25 NNE SYR 35 E ROC 25 W ROC 20 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI BUF 30 ENE JHW 20 SSE ERI 30 ENE CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG SURFACE AND COLD UPPER LOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BANDS TONIGHT. BY 06Z LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR OCCURRENCE OF LIGHTNING TO LEE OF LE/LO. WITH PREVAILING WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT SFC-700MB SETTING UP TONIGHT...OVER WATER TRAJECTORY WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR LAKE BANDS. ..HALES.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 19:33:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 14:33:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412121935.iBCJZT915222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121932 SWODY1 SPC AC 121930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI BUF 30 ENE JHW 20 SSE ERI 30 ENE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF ART 25 NNE SYR 35 E ROC 25 W ROC 20 N BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... STRONG...COLD SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE ERIE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SWLY FETCH ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF BOTH LAKES FOR SNOW BAND GENERATION. LATEST NOAA COASTWATCH LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCH OF LAKE ERIE AT 7-8 C AND THESE SAME VALUES OVER THE ERN PART OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS COLD AIR SPREADS ATOP THE WARM LAKES LATER TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..PETERS.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 00:31:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 19:31:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412130033.iBD0Xp904179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130031 SWODY1 SPC AC 130029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI BUF 30 ENE JHW 20 SSE ERI 30 ENE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF ART 25 NNE SYR 35 E ROC 25 W ROC 20 N BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE OVER THE UP OF MI AND LAKE HURON WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH ALONG LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. GIVEN CURRENT LAKE WATERS IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN OWING TO STRONG POST-FRONTAL CAA. AS THIS OCCURS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OWING TO DESTABILIZING LOW-LEVELS. ..MEAD.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 05:06:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 00:06:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412130508.iBD58j922657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130506 SWODY1 SPC AC 130504 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WA COAST WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREAS ATTM. ..MEAD.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 12:56:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 07:56:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412131258.iBDCwq911425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131257 SWODY1 SPC AC 131255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN NY/PA CONTINUES ENE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS SWEEPS SE TO THE LWR OH VLY. COOL DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS AT LWR LEVELS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR INVOF LK ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ERN LK ERIE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. BUT...WITH TIME...CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NY/PA TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE LWR LKS...DESPITE CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLDER AIR IN THE SURFACE-TO-850 MB LAYER. ..CORFIDI.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 16:00:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 11:00:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412131602.iBDG2I926229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131554 SWODY1 SPC AC 131552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LEE OF LE/LO THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD UNSTABLE WLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. HOWEVER THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED...PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOK AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS DRY AND/OR STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. ..HALES.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 19:42:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 14:42:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412131944.iBDJiS901899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131942 SWODY1 SPC AC 131940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF MI...NRN OH...NW PA AND SWRN NY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION. ..DIAL.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 00:20:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 19:20:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412140023.iBE0N0926089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140021 SWODY1 SPC AC 140019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY -- LAGGING ACROSS FL -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS PERIOD...LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ONSHORE. WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AS WELL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 05:24:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 00:24:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412140526.iBE5QL929710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140524 SWODY1 SPC AC 140522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD / EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC / GULF OF MEXICO...LEAVING COLD / STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 12:16:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 07:16:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412141218.iBECIi913091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141215 SWODY1 SPC AC 141214 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... COOL...DRY AND LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 15:48:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 10:48:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412141550.iBEFoI914217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141545 SWODY1 SPC AC 141543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A DRY AND/OR STABLE AIR MASS COVERS THE CONUS TODAY PRECLUDING ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 19:35:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 14:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412141937.iBEJbl927310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141936 SWODY1 SPC AC 141934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF WRN MT...ID AND EVENTUALLY INTO WY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO OUTLOOK A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. ..DIAL.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 00:42:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 19:42:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412150045.iBF0j1928260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150041 SWODY1 SPC AC 150040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. A LEE TROUGH NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ROCKIES WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...LITTLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 05:24:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 00:24:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412150527.iBF5R3929640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150525 SWODY1 SPC AC 150523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A DOMINANT SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN PART OF THE US WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO RETURN NWWD REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD AND DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD STEEP LAPSE RATES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER....LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 12:29:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 07:29:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151231.iBFCVK905251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151228 SWODY1 SPC AC 151227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE ALONG THE W CST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD TODAY AS LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-STRUCTURED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS CONTINUES ESEWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO EDGE NWWD AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CNTRL/SRN TX GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE AND NRN TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. AND IN THE EAST...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12 HRS OR SO BENEATH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NC CST. ..CORFIDI.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 15:58:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 10:58:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151600.iBFG0u903543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151557 SWODY1 SPC AC 151555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SYNOPSIS PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE ALONG THE W CST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD TODAY AS LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-STRUCTURED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS CONTINUES ESEWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO EDGE NWWD AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CNTRL/SRN TX GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE AND NRN TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ..HALES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 16:23:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 11:23:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151625.iBFGPS916169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151622 SWODY1 SPC AC 151620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE ALONG THE W CST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD TODAY AS LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-STRUCTURED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS CONTINUES ESEWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO EDGE NWWD AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CNTRL/SRN TX GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE AND NRN TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ..HALES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 19:41:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 14:41:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151943.iBFJhn913806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151941 SWODY1 SPC AC 151939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE TX.. SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ACROSS E TX AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF MODIFYING GULF AIR INTO SERN TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT OVER SERN TX AS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING. ..DIAL.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 00:14:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 19:14:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412160016.iBG0GU929903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160014 SWODY1 SPC AC 160012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 05:24:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 00:24:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412160526.iBG5Qj907477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160525 SWODY1 SPC AC 160523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GULF COAST... LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WELL OFF THE TX COAST...AS SFC RIDGING MAINTAINS NLY OFFSHORE FLOW. DESPITE SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION INTO SERN TX...IT APPEARS MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY ALLOW SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG NRN FRINGE OF WRN GULF WAVE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 12:49:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 07:49:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412161251.iBGCpb928074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161249 SWODY1 SPC AC 161247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NE MEXICO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN BRANCH OF MAIN JET AFFECTING THE SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF TODAY. LOW LEVEL UPLIFT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST. THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AND THEN SETTLE FARTHER E/SE INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF COAST...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR POINTS INLAND LOOKS MINIMAL. ..CORFIDI.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 15:38:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 10:38:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412161540.iBGFej904894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161538 SWODY1 SPC AC 161536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF S TX COAST SEPARATES A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM A MODIFIED MOIST GULF AIRMASS. SUFFICIENT LIFT VICINITY BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ATTM. AS SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SETTLE SEWD ACROSS TX AND NRN MEX...COASTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. THUS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TX COAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE FAVORABLE LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY SEWD AWAY FROM TX COAST. ..HALES.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 19:32:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 14:32:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412161934.iBGJYW915622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161929 SWODY1 SPC AC 161927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VIS IMAGERY AND EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED PARALLEL TO THE TX COAST...BUT 50-60 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY DELINEATES WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH FROM A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TO NERN TX...WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EWD...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 00:24:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 19:24:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412170026.iBH0QD906299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170023 SWODY1 SPC AC 170022 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG NRN EXTENT OF WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS LA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVE TOO SHALLOW GIVEN THE OVERALL SWD SHIFT TO MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 05:19:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 00:19:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412170521.iBH5LW903210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170519 SWODY1 SPC AC 170517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... INTENSIFYING UPPER SPEED MAX...WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY OFF THE SRN TIP OF FL PENINSULA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE THEN LIFT NEWD...ROUGHLY 50-100MI OFFSHORE. DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS FOCUSED ZONE OF CONVERGENCE BUT LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER LAND DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 12:30:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 07:30:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412171232.iBHCWW912348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171230 SWODY1 SPC AC 171228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 15:57:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 10:57:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412171559.iBHFxv900835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171556 SWODY1 SPC AC 171554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..WEISS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 19:24:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 14:24:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412171926.iBHJQi931752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171924 SWODY1 SPC AC 171923 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..PETERS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 00:27:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 19:27:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412180029.iBI0Tx924751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180028 SWODY1 SPC AC 180026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... DEEPER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC WAVE OFF THE SERN TIP OF FL WILL TEND TO FOCUS STRONGER UPDRAFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. ..DARROW.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 05:36:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 00:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412180538.iBI5cM923024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180536 SWODY1 SPC AC 180535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO COOL DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24HR. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DEVELOP OVER WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE DOES WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 12:51:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 07:51:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412181253.iBICrVJ01231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181251 SWODY1 SPC AC 181249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 NW ANJ 15 NE TVC 25 ENE SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 20 NE IMT 50 WNW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GREAT LAKES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS U.P. OF MI BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN/ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT AS VERY COLD H85-H7 AIR MASS AND STRONG NNWLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG SERN SHORE OF LAKE MI LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S F. ..EVANS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 15:58:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 10:58:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412181600.iBIG06xP017022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181556 SWODY1 SPC AC 181554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ TVC 30 E SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 30 NNW ESC 30 WSW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GREAT LAKES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN/ERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE U.P./WI...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES/3 TO 7C/. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI TONIGHT. ...FL KEYS... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FRONT AND CONVECTION SWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 19:45:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 14:45:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412181947.iBIJlccY011938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181945 SWODY1 SPC AC 181944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ TVC 30 E SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 30 NNW ESC 30 WSW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GREAT LAKES... STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY...AND TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AS 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS SWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. INFLUX OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LS/LM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS WINDS FROM THE SFC-700 MB VEER TO NLY AND THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES SWD ATOP THE WARM LAKE WATERS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 00:32:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 19:32:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412190034.iBJ0YCDG025677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190032 SWODY1 SPC AC 190030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ TVC 30 E SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 30 NNW ESC 30 WSW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF LAKE HURON AND TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LAKE WATERS OF 35-45F SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH A SHALLOW LAYER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST WITHIN BROADER AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 04:47:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 23:47:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412190449.iBJ4nOeS010720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190446 SWODY1 SPC AC 190445 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY/TONIGHT OVER THE CONUS WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST AND INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. IN IT/S WAKE...A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH/CHINOOK WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...GREAT LAKES... DESPITE A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON /ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD/...BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND PASSAGE OF SURFACE HIGH TO THE SE SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NORMAL ORIENTATION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO LONG LAKE AXES SHOULD LIMIT WATER TO AIR MOISTURE/HEAT FLUXES AND ANY RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 16:09:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 11:09:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412191611.iBJGBfeK018000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191608 SWODY1 SPC AC 191606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STABLE PATTERN OF AN ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH TOMORROW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL DIG ESEWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT...AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-8 C/KM NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH AXIS BY LATE TODAY ACROSS SC/NC. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED INLAND...AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES WILL BE GREATER. ..THOMPSON.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 19:23:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 14:23:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412191925.iBJJPelE020870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191923 SWODY1 SPC AC 191921 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..PETERS.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 00:44:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 19:44:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412200046.iBK0kCdm001700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200042 SWODY1 SPC AC 200040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DELMARVA SWD TO THE NC COAST... OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM WAL SWD TO MHX INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST INTENSE REGION OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SUGGESTING THAT THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. SINCE THIS LIGHTNING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY SMALL...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE ADDED. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 04:54:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 23:54:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412200456.iBK4uTkU008795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200454 SWODY1 SPC AC 200452 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE E COAST...WHILE BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...WEAKER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO CONCURRENTLY DIVE SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD/SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...TX COAST... CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE THAT A CP AIR MASS HAS INTRUDED WELL INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH 50 F DEWPOINTS GENERALLY ALONG/S OF 23 N. INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME MODIFICATION OF THIS AIR NWD TOWARD THE TX COAST WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OR THE LOWER 50S F BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 12:51:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 07:51:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412201253.iBKCrZxH006956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201251 SWODY1 SPC AC 201249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY...WITH REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..EVANS.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 16:03:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 11:03:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412201605.iBKG59dt011082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201601 SWODY1 SPC AC 201559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO INDUCE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN TO TX. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE GULF BASIN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE CP AIR MASS IS ONGOING. INITIAL 2M DEWPOINTS IN THE 12Z ETA WERE TOO HIGH BY AT LEAST 5-10 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...AND IT APPEARS THE ETA CONTINUES TO RETURN MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY TO THE NW GULF COAST. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE E TX AREA WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER ON DAY 2. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT /DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ WILL SPREAD FROM THE NEB/SD BORDER REGION ACROSS IA/SRN MN TODAY...REACHING WI BY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONVECTIVE...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 05:44:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 00:44:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412210546.iBL5kd96021939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210544 SWODY1 SPC AC 210541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 40 S CLL 40 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 25 WNW TCL 55 SE MEI 25 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES SPREADING NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. PRIMARY FEATURE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WHICH WILL DIVE SWD FROM WRN CANADA TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FRONT OVER CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO WRN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... CURRENT COASTAL AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE A NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WHILE 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER FETCH OF MODIFIED AIR WAS SAMPLED AT LCH. CONTINUED SLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS WITH SOME NWD ADVECTION LIKELY ACROSS ERN TX AND MUCH OF LA. CURRENT ETA FORECASTS OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OBSERVATIONAL DATA N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.... SUGGESTING THAT CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY FORECASTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGH. AN INCREASINGLY COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND RESULTANT DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION FROM ERN TX INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NWD ALONG DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG. HERE...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 12:39:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 07:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412211242.iBLCgAIq008328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211239 SWODY1 SPC AC 211236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRP 60 N PSX 40 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 50 WSW CBM 25 NNE LUL 25 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER TX COAST ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/SRN LA... 12Z SOUNDINGS AND EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS REMAINS CONVECTIVELY-CHALLENGED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /NOW DIGGING INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION/ WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...PLUME OF LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS NOW EXTENDING NWD TO JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EVIDENT NEAR PSX AT 12Z ALONG NOSE OF THIS MOIST AXIS. APPEARS INCREASING WAA JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA THROUGH THE DAY AS H85 LLJ STRENGTHENS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESPECTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH...SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE/PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM...STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF BECOMING SURFACE BASED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO...SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THUS...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD THIS POTENTIAL BECOME MORE EVIDENT. ..EVANS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 16:07:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 11:07:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412211609.iBLG9aHu020288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211603 SWODY1 SPC AC 211601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW GLS 60 N HOU 15 NNE LFK 35 SSW SHV 35 NNE POE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRP 45 SE AUS 45 ENE DAL 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 40 SW CBM 45 SSE MEI 25 SSE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN TX/WRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. NEXT TWO DAYS AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES INTO GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG S/WV TROUGH COUPLED WITH 150KT 300MB NLY JET NOW DIGGING SSEWD NRN ROCKIES SUPPORTS THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS AS WELL AS PROVIDING THE IMPETUS TO MOVE S/WV TROUGH NOW SRN CA/AZ EWD INTO TX TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY COLD AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL MO SWWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO W CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S/SEWD. BY 12Z WED FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM KY/WRN TN SWWD ACROSS AR INTO SWRN TX. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLY RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF IS RAPIDLY PICKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS ALREADY ONSHORE MID TX COAST. ...SERN TX/WRN LA... WITH RELATIVELY STEEP AND COOL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS TX COUPLED WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE INLAND/MUCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH ONLY 30KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES AND SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT OFF VAD AT HOU...SUGGESTS THAT ROTATION POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. INITIALLY THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE ROTATING STORMS THAT EITHER FORM OR MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SWRN U.S...LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KT SERN TX/LA WHILE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE INLAND SERN TX/WRN LA WITH A LITTLE GREATER CONCERN OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK... AND OVERNIGHT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO A LINEAR MCS. ..HALES.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 20:04:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 15:04:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412212007.iBLK6xjY024221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212004 SWODY1 SPC AC 212003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX 60 NNE VCT CLL LFK POE LFT 45 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRP COT SAT AUS PGO 45 ESE HRO CGI PAH TUP 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SE TX AND WRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO NRN MEX WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AND INTO DAY-2...REINFORCED BY 150 KT 300 MB JET MAX NOW DIGGING SWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...LEADING EDGE OF SERIES OF ARTIC AIR SURGES IS NOW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN MO...THROUGH WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TX...THEN WSWWD ACROSS LOWEST PECOS VALLEY REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WITH LOW SHIFTING EWD INTO ARKLATEX REGION. ...SE TX...WRN LA... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL CONTINUE SE OF FRONT...DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL NEAR COAST. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES PROGGED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE FROM TYR AREA SWD ACROSS HOU METRO INTO GULF...TO ABOUT 45 E BRO...THEN SWD PARALLEL TO MEX COAST...MOVING E 10-15 KT. RAOB ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THIS LINE NEARLY COINCIDES WITH ERN EDGE OF STRONGEST CAPPING EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO/DRT AND MONTERREY RAOBS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GREATEST FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 80 NM E OF THIS LINE...WHICH SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND PERHAPS RETREAT SLIGHTLY AMIDST CONTINUED PREFRONTAL PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS. AIR MASS OVER LAND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NEAR SFC WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN IN AREA OF RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW E OF CONFLUENCE LINE...WHERE 200-300 SRH IS LIKELY IN SFC-3 KM LAYER. VWP DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG RIGHTWARD MOTION -- SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED SINCE 16Z WITH SUPERCELL ABOUT 60-70 NM OFFSHORE GLS. SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SW LA...AMIDST INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH GREAT MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS S TX AND MID TX COASTAL PLAIN...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT...AFTER ABOUT 06Z. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES...ENHANCING GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 00:56:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 19:56:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412220059.iBM0xEOt002777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220056 SWODY1 SPC AC 220055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 60 NNE VCT 30 ESE CLL LFK POE 25 NW LFT 20 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRP 35 E COT SAT AUS 40 NNE PRX 35 W UNO 10 NW CGI PAH TUP 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN MORE EWD ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEX. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN TX AND THEN SWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST HAS DESTABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE /PER 00Z CRP SOUNDING/...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF W-E CONVECTIVE LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 60 SE PSX TO 100 S 7R4. PRIND...MAJORITY OF STRONGEST SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO STRONGER INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NEAR PRX TO TYR. THOUGH 00Z FWD/SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE IN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN FREE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY STRONG /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2/. ..MEAD.. 12/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 05:31:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:31:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412220533.iBM5XgkT014900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220531 SWODY1 SPC AC 220529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 40 NE HOU 20 SSW TCL 25 SW AUO 15 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRP 40 ESE SAT 30 W ELD 15 SSE DYR 45 W LOZ 15 SE JKL 45 SSW BLF 20 WSW CLT 20 WSW CAE 45 NNE AYS 25 S CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE FL PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... EXPANSION OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS SYSTEM EWD ACROSS TX TODAY AND THEN INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE ACCOMPANYING MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR BRO IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. ...GULF COAST... CURRENT SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS NOW ONSHORE AS FAR E AS THE LA COAST...AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS N OF BUOYS 42019...42038 AND 42041. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM TX WILL MAINTAIN A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR THE NEWD EXPANSION OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN 50-100 NM OF THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. AS INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT 45-55 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN LA NEWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HERE...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 350-450 M2/S2/ WILL EXIST E AND NE OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SRN AL OVERNIGHT WITHIN WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ..MEAD.. 12/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 24 16:00:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 11:00:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412241603.iBOG31mU008466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241555 SWODY1 SPC AC 241553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 NW AGR 25 SSE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE COLD UPPER TROUGH ERN U.S. WITH STRONG S/WV TROUGH NRN MEX TRACKING ESEWD TO SRN TX TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILS WWD ACROSS SRN FL INTO GULF OF MEXICO. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL FAR S FL BY TONIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS NWRN GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF S/WV TROUGH FROM NRN MEX. AIR MASS S OF FRONT IN FL MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...HOWEVER WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEATING AND LIFT ACROSS FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION S FL THRU TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 24 19:53:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 14:53:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412241955.iBOJtt9E001381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241951 SWODY1 SPC AC 241949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SRQ 30 NW AGR 20 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO SOUTH FL. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN FAR SRN FL WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER....THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 00:38:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 19:38:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412250041.iBP0fKUw002913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250039 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 20 SSW AGR MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW LRD 25 ENE COT 30 NNE NIR 25 SSE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG VORTEX OVER SWRN HUDSON BAY HAS LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO S OF THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO EXTREME S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND WILL BE FLATTENING OUT AS NEXT STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...SOUTH FLORIDA... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE KEYS AND THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND LIES BETWEEN THE PENINSULA AND CUBA. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTION NEAR 24N 85W WHICH COULD STILL MOVE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS S OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB WHICH EXTENDS E-W FROM TPA-MLB. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU 25/12Z. ...PARTS OF S TX... THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PARTS OF S TX DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHILE THE COLD AIR MASS IS 50-75 MB DEEP...GIVEN COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND PVA FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 05:24:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 00:24:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412250527.iBP5R5A4031771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250525 SWODY1 SPC AC 250523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIE 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL TONIGHT.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES SWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST REGION REINFORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ATTENTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN TX GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ORIENTED TO A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND NRN FL BY 26/12Z. BEST ESTIMATE ATTM IS SURFACE LOW IS SE OF BRO NEAR 24N 94W AND WILL TRACK ENEWD AND APPROACH THE W CENTRAL FL COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY LOW EXTENDING SWD AS IT NEARS TPA/PIE AFTER 26/06Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE ESTIMATING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AS WELL...THUS MARGINALLY DESTABILING THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DISPLACING THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION... MODELS DEPICT CLOUD COVER/MEAN RH ABOVE 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH WILL ADVECT LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -5 ACROSS THE AREA. WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-110 KT AND 75-85 KT...RESPECTIVELY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50-60 KT WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT WILL OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL FL AFTER 26/06Z. HAVE INCLUDED A MINIMAL PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY ALONG/NEAR QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY E-W THRU CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 12:15:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 07:15:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412251218.iBPCIP1S001681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251213 SWODY1 SPC AC 251211 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE TX GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND INTO THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS FL...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS FOCUSED. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER ETA SOLUTION MAY BE MORE ACCURATE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT FL AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LINE OF STORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST. ..HART.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 16:34:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 11:34:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412251636.iBPGaYh8016118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251634 SWODY1 SPC AC 251633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...FL PENINSULA... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW HAS ENTERED NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE EWD CROSSING FL LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED S OF THE FL KEYS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDS WNWWD TO SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N 90W AT 15Z. FRONT HAS BEGUN RETURN NWD INTO S FL AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE 1006 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD S FL BY THIS EVENING AS FAR N AS A FMY TO VRB LINE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 70F AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80F. 12Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AS GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO RETURNING WARM FRONT AND MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 00Z WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING OVER ATLANTIC E OF FL. ETA IS SLOWER ON DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTIVE PCPN AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH...WHILE MOVING GULF SURFACE LOW MUCH SLOWER AS WELL. WITH A HIGH QUALITY WARM SECTOR IN SERN GULF AND WRN CARIBBEAN...AND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING VICINITY WARM FRONT VICINITY 25N 86W...WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...FAVOR A SOLUTION MORE TOWARD THE GFS EXCEPT SLOWER WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WHERE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. THIS WOULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO WRN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VICINITY FMY. WHILE LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS SUPPORTS MDT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OFF W COAST FL S OF WARM FRONT CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 60 KTS AND SR HELICITY TO 200-300 J/KG VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 KT AND 500MB WINDS TO 50-60KT. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ONSHORE ALONG WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS ADDITIONALLY MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF GULF ACTIVITY AGAIN VICINITY WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S FL. OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..HALES.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 19:57:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 14:57:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412251959.iBPJxmNY016648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251957 SWODY1 SPC AC 251955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AND CNTRL FL... ...FL PENINSULA... WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CNTRL GULF AND WILL APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD...CURRENTLY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO SOUTH OF NAPLES WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGING FROM 68 TO 72 F. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG SFC-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORT MEYERS FL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO THE BACKED SFC WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE WRN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAST ENELY STORM MOTION. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST. ..BROYLES.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 01:06:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 20:06:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412260108.iBQ18WMG012596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260104 SWODY1 SPC AC 260103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF /200 SSW AQQ/. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL HAS LIMITED THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SRN FL FROM 10 SW FMY-35 N PBI. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE DATA AND VWP DATA INDICATED THAT THE COLD AIR MASS IS ERODING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AS THE SWLY LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATES EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE/MODIFY... ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NWD. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL W/NW TO THE SURFACE LOW. A COUPLE OF SW-NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN GULF INTO SRN FL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN FL...WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MIAMI AND KEY WEST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS...REFER TO SPCSWOMCD #2579. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NNEWD INTO CENTRAL FL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL FL BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ INTO CENTRAL FL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS SRN GA. INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO 70 KT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 05:41:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 00:41:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412260543.iBQ5hZX9003883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260541 SWODY1 SPC AC 260540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 40 W JAX 55 W SAV 45 SE CAE 40 SSE FAY 30 SE OAJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST... WILL MOVE SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AS IT BUILDS EWD OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER SERN STATES AT START OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL PHASE WITH OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE REST OF THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES NEWD...WITH SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY FORMING OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BECOMING PRIMARY LOW TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF PHASING UPPER TROUGHS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM PORTIONS OF NRN FL NEWD TO SERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z AS UVVS...ASSOCIATED WITH WAA REGIME NNW OF SURFACE LOWS AND EXIT REGION OF 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET...MOVE NEWD TO ALONG/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. COLD FRONT INITIALLY TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL MOVE SWD OVER SRN FL AND OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WSWLY FLOW IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE ATOP COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER SRN FL. ..PETERS.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 12:36:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 07:36:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412261238.iBQCcYr0004895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261235 SWODY1 SPC AC 261234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GA/SC/NC... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT THREAT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. ...WA/ORE COAST... NEXT STRONG TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAST ONSHORE LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. ..HART.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 15:48:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 10:48:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412261550.iBQFondZ032305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261547 SWODY1 SPC AC 261545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXITING SERN U.S. WITH SURFACE DEEPENING OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM LAND AS SFC LOW DEEPENS NEWD OVER WRN ATLANTIC. WHILE THERE ARE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES PAC NW COAST...THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OFF PAC NW COAST PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE CONCERN FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY W COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..HALES.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 19:37:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 14:37:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412261940.iBQJdw0G011755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261937 SWODY1 SPC AC 261936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. OFF THE WEST COAST...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SWD. LAPSE RATES WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STEEP AND SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF CA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE MAKING THUNDER UNLIKELY IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ..BROYLES.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 00:28:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 19:28:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412270031.iBR0VFiu003191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270029 SWODY1 SPC AC 270027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE SWD TONIGHT OFF THE WRN U.S. COAST...AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE NUMBER OF STRIKES WITHIN THE UPPER LOW HAS DECREASED SINCE 20Z. SWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN GREATEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO THE WEST OF THE WA-CA COASTLINE...WHERE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -34C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELSEWHERE...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST STATES WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 04:52:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 23:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412270455.iBR4t94k023803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270453 SWODY1 SPC AC 270451 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 25 ESE OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL AREA OF CENTRAL CA... LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE WA-NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TODAY...AS AN UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE BC COAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE W/SW PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST AFTER 06Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT 500 MB JET ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION/SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING SWD ALONG THE CENTRAL TO SRN CA COASTAL AREAS /ALONG AND WEST OF COASTAL RANGES/. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-26 TO -28C AT 500 MB/ ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA AFTER 06Z... RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..PETERS.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 12:33:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 07:33:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412271235.iBRCZqCL016882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271234 SWODY1 SPC AC 271232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 25 ESE OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF CA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-24 TO -28C/...STRONG ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS...AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AID IN A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE...COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ..HART.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 15:49:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 10:49:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412271551.iBRFpXiN027879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271547 SWODY1 SPC AC 271545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 25 ESE OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD UPPER TROUGH OFF CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG S/SWLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO CA. ONLY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE VICINITY CENTRAL CA COAST WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 19:38:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 14:38:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412271941.iBRJfHVj030462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271939 SWODY1 SPC AC 271937 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 30 S LGB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED 31.5N/132.3W WAS SEEN MIGRATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD TURN EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAS INDICATED CLUSTERS OF CLOUD-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN SRN COASTAL CA VERY LATE TONIGHT. THUS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO SWD THROUGH THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. TSTMS ARE APT TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION. IT DOES NOT APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY... HOWEVER /REFER TO SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK/. ..RACY.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 00:58:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 19:58:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412280101.iBS11C51024112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280058 SWODY1 SPC AC 280057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 20 SE SJC 30 NE SBA 20 WNW RAL 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED AT 30.5N/130.6W ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COASTAL AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW CLOUD-WATER STRIKES WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN CA SWD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THEN SSWWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND THEN SWD TOWARD SRN CA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA BY 12Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES. THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL INTO SRN CA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AFTER 06-09Z. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 05:59:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 00:59:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412280601.iBS61xDc002532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280559 SWODY1 SPC AC 280557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EKA 45 ENE UKI 20 SSE SCK 50 SSE FAT 25 E NID 40 NW IGM 20 NNE FLG 25 S INW 55 WNW SAD 25 SW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST DE-AMPLIFYING TODAY AND THEN MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW/NRN CA REGION. HOWEVER...ETA/GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EAST CENTRAL CA BY THE END OF PERIOD. THE SLOWER ETA/ECMWF PLACE THE SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN CA... DESPITE THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 30.5N/127.7W PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHING SRN CA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CURRENT OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED NUMEROUS STRIKES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SRN CA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION INLAND...WHILE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS A COLD POOL STEEPENS LAPSE RATES BY LATE MORNING. THUS...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. A GREATER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ALSO SMALL..FOR SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE SRN CA COAST WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK IN ADVANCE OF EACH UPPER TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA. ELSEWHERE...AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO AZ. ..PETERS.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 12:55:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 07:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412281257.iBSCvQQX020705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281255 SWODY1 SPC AC 281253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EKA SAC BIH LAS FLG 50 W SOW 55 SE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING INLAND. THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA INDICATES EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN REGION OF COLD UPPER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UVVS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TODAY IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INLAND THIS EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. AS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO. ..HART.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 15:59:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 10:59:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412281602.iBSG27Y3031476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281555 SWODY1 SPC AC 281554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EKA SAC BIH LAS FLG 50 W SOW 55 SE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING INLAND. THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS/WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND THIS AM... HOWEVER INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. UPSTREAM VORT MAX AT 33N 122W ROTATING NEWD AND WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AT THE EXPENSE OF STRONGER IMPULSE NEAR 34N 132W WHICH WILL REACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES PERSISTING COASTAL SRN CA THRU TONIGHT AND STRONG UVVS CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSES...A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL FINAL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. ..HALES.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 19:32:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 14:32:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412281934.iBSJYLFb032679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281930 SWODY1 SPC AC 281929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W UKI 40 E UKI 40 WSW TVL 60 NNW NID LAS 45 ENE IGM 45 SW INW 55 ESE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA AREA... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE SRN CA COAST NEAR SANTA BARBARA AS OF MIDDAY...WHILE OTHER TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE SRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC BAND WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS SRN CA...WHILE A SECONDARY BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE LEAD MID LEVEL VORT MAX. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE COAST...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE SRN CA COAST. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR AS THIS WAVE NEARS THE COAST...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE BY 06-09Z. ..THOMPSON.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 00:54:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 19:54:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412290057.iBT0v5iO026558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290054 SWODY1 SPC AC 290053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W UKI 40 E UKI 40 WSW TVL 60 NNW NID LAS 45 ENE IGM 45 SW INW 55 ESE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EWD TOWARD CA. THIS PARENT LOW WILL DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SSEWD OFF THE PAC NW. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH /AT 32.7N/123.8W/ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA COAST AROUND 06Z...WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER TROUGH /AT 30.7N/128.6W/ REACHING THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A FEW STRIKES WITH THE LEAD TROUGH AND SEVERAL STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ONE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN CA COAST LATER TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY 06-09Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS JUST OFFSHORE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO. SOME OF THIS SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 06:02:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 01:02:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412290604.iBT64HgE006757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290601 SWODY1 SPC AC 290559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE YKN 30 E MKT 30 NE LSE 35 E MSN 15 WNW CGX 25 ENE BMI 40 SSE UIN 35 NE MKC 20 NNE BIE 15 ENE YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AST 35 NNW MFR 50 WSW MHS 30 SSW RBL 50 NE BFL 30 ESE NID 20 NW LAS 35 SSW SGU 35 ESE GCN 25 SW SOW 20 WSW SAD 25 SE FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA FORECAST TRACK FOR TODAY OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH /NOW MOVING ENEWD INTO CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS TRENDING MORE WWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...BUT REMAINS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. ...SRN CA EWD TO AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E OF CA. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL AID IN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO AZ. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRIKES MAY OCCUR FARTHER NEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE THIS FAR EAST. ...MID MS VALLEY WWD TO ERN NEB... ETA/GFS DIFFER /GFS STRONGER AND MORE WEST/ WITH THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE AND GIVEN THE WWD TREND IN THE LAST FEW ETA RUNS...THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO ERN NEB. SURFACE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER INTO NRN MO BY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO IA TONIGHT. SWLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 50+ KT AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THIS AREA. STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TSTM THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. ...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ORE/NWRN CA... THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE EVENING... ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND MID-LEVELS COOL IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NRN CA. ..PETERS.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 12:37:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 07:37:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412291239.iBTCdHaQ005806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291237 SWODY1 SPC AC 291235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA 35 NE SCK 50 NE BFL 30 ENE NID 15 SE DRA 30 WSW MLF 45 ESE U24 40 W GJT 30 NNW CEZ 40 ENE SOW 50 ESE PHX 70 SW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY 25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 40 ENE OMA 30 ESE YKN 30 W BKX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/NV/AZ/UT... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ASHORE NEAR LAX/SAN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NV/UT AND NORTHERN AZ. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST ALONG THIS AXIS...ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF TRACK OF PRIMARY VORT MAX. WHILE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST. ...MIDWEST STATES... NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SD/MN/IA. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION AFTER 06Z...WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..HART.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 16:24:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 11:24:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412291626.iBTGQJ7F026776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291616 SWODY1 SPC AC 291614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY 25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 30 ESE OMA 30 ESE YKN 30 W BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55 S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSE LAS 15 E P38 45 ESE U24 40 SSW VEL 55 SW CAG 15 WNW ASE 40 SE GUC 40 SSW ALS 60 SSW GNT 70 WSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OFF CA COAST IS ACCELERATING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN U.S. THIS AM. BY THU AM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS. AT 15Z VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM SURFACE LOW ERN NV THRU WRN AZ. VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES ACROSS AZ AHEAD OF FRONT...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS AZ AND THE 4-CORNERS AREA...GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED THE MARGINAL THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VICINITY OF IA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPING EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. ..HALES.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 19:27:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 14:27:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412291930.iBTJU2Z4003412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291927 SWODY1 SPC AC 291925 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55 S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY 25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 30 ESE OMA 30 ESE YKN 30 W BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SGU 45 N BCE 15 WNW U28 25 WNW GJT 25 NW GUC 35 SSE GUC 45 ESE DRO 25 NNW GNT 55 SSW GUP 45 ESE PRC 40 WNW PRC 55 NNE IGM 15 NE SGU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO NWRN AZ/SWRN UT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z. LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION/STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY WANE OVER THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH EVENING. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY NRN AZ INTO SERN UT. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS...THOUGH THE AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WILL ALREADY BE QUITE STRONG. ...CNTRL PAC COAST... CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 28C/ WILL ROTATE INLAND CNTRL PAC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA AND GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...UPPER MS VLY... AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING VERY LATE TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 00:49:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 19:49:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412300051.iBU0pafb026298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300049 SWODY1 SPC AC 300047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55 S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGA 30 ESE 4HV 40 SSW GJT 20 SSE MTJ 55 NE DRO 55 ESE DRO 40 SE GNT 35 ESE DUG 40 WSW FHU 55 ESE GBN 15 NE PHX FLG PGA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS AZ TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5C/KM IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. ...CNTRL PAC COAST... THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FROM -28 TO -30C...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM 700 TO 375 MB. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...THOUGH THE DEEP COLD ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY... LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN AZ MOVES NEWD INTO NEB TOWARD DAYBREAK. EVE SOUNDINGS WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS WERE DRY AND STABLE...WITH SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z...BUT THE BUOYANT LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..IMY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 05:02:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 00:02:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412300504.iBU54bS4016126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300501 SWODY1 SPC AC 300500 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST 25 NNW SLE 50 E OTH 45 SW MHS 50 N PRB 20 WNW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW FWA LAF BMI 20 ENE BRL 55 SSW LSE 40 ENE EAU IMT 35 E PLN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES... THOUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NRN ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE UNUSUAL WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY...50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... IS FORECAST TO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES 4-6C. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...PACIFIC COAST... WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE AREA...500 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -28 TO -30C RANGE...RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 450 MB. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL CA COASTS...WHERE LIFT/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY 25-35 WSWLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 12:31:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 07:31:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412301234.iBUCY8Cp002719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301232 SWODY1 SPC AC 301230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 35 S AZO 25 WSW CGX MSN 20 SSE CWA IMT 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE MFR RBL SCK 20 WNW SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/ORE COAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING INTO NORTHERN CA/OREGON. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-30C AT 500MB/ ALONG WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES TODAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN MT/WY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. ..HART.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 16:03:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 11:03:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412301605.iBUG5wea021781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301552 SWODY1 SPC AC 301551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE 10 NNE LMT 50 NW TVL 30 N MER 20 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 35 S AZO 25 WSW CGX MSN 20 SSE CWA IMT 35 E PLN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD UPPER TROUGH OFF W COAST SLOWLY MOVING EWD AS S/W IMPULSES MOVE RAPIDLY EWD OUT OF TROUGH ACROSS WRN U.S. ONSHORE FLOW OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM COASTAL MTS WWD CENTRAL CA TO WRN OR. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT SACRAMENTO VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY NO SEVERE IS STILL THE FORECAST. STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW. THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EWD TO ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. S OF LOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ..HALES.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 19:36:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 14:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412301938.iBUJcqTO015499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301936 SWODY1 SPC AC 301934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 30 S AZO 30 ENE MMO 25 SSE MLI 25 WSW DBQ 25 S CWA IMT 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE 10 NNE LMT 50 NW TVL 30 N MER 20 SW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY...THOUGH WARM SECTOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6.5 C/KM ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG AND VIGOROUS UVV SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS. FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP 00-03Z VCNTY ERN IA/SRN WI AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ...COASTAL ORE/NRN-CNTRL CA... ONSHORE FLOW OF MOIST PACIFIC BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 00:42:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 19:42:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412310044.iBV0iUYe001625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310042 SWODY1 SPC AC 310040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HQM 40 ENE AST PDX 40 SE SLE 10 NNW MHS 10 SE RBL 20 NNE SAC 20 WNW MER 35 N PRB 15 WNW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MTC 40 WSW SBN 35 NNE PIA 25 WNW MLI 25 WNW DBQ 25 SSW VOK 25 E AUW 20 ENE ESC 45 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED UPPER-LOW WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN WI...IL AND LOWER MI. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE NOT LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL SLOWLY SIT AND SPIN. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CA. THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 06:09:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 01:09:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412310611.iBV6Bix2013035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310609 SWODY1 SPC AC 310607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST 15 E EUG 25 SW MFR 40 NW RBL 20 ESE SAC 25 NW FAT 25 N BFL 35 WSW BFL 25 WSW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW GLS 20 SSW LFK 35 SE PGO 40 W UNO 50 ESE TBN 40 NNW POF 25 E POF 35 E JBR 10 WNW GLH HEZ 30 ENE BTR 10 WNW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA AND ORE COAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA AND ORE TODAY. THE STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -30 C/ WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN TX AND LA ALLOWING FOR SFC DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE ROCKIES...LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY ACROSS TX AND LA TONIGHT. AS FLOW INCREASES...ANY DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARKS. DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..BROYLES.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 12:59:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 07:59:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412311301.iBVD1JUB005916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311258 SWODY1 SPC AC 311256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 15 E EUG MFR 25 N MHS 45 SSW SVE 50 SE TVL 25 N BFL 40 NE SMX 25 WSW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 60 SSW CLL 15 N CLL 25 SE TYR 35 S TXK 35 SW ELD 45 E SHV 30 WSW POE 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE FYV 25 NE MKO 25 NE TUL 45 WSW CNU EMP 25 ESE TOP COU 35 SSW STL 25 N POF 15 N ARG 55 SE HRO 30 SE FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT...AIDING IN EJECTING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NRN MN NEWD INTO QUEBEC. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. ...SERN TX/NWRN LA... WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS EVIDENT NEAR A BRO-HOU-LFK LINE... WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION MOVING NWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS. MORNING CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER... 5-10 DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD NOT EXTEND BEYOND LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER NM/CO...INDUCING SELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ...PACIFIC COAST... LIGHTNING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS OCCURRED MAINLY NEAR THE COASTLINE WHERE WARMER OCEAN WATERS PROVIDED MORE INSTABILITY THAN COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES. WITH TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE...THE LIGHTNING OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...-28C TO -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...SRN MO/SERN KS/NERN OK AND NWRN AR... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN TX AND POLAR JET LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/COOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z. ...ERN GREAT LAKES... AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHIFT NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA INTO CANADA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD OUT OF THE REGION. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS EXTREME SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A THUNDER AREA. ..IMY.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 16:35:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 11:35:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412311637.iBVGbYuE018936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311631 SWODY1 SPC AC 311630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 45 S EUG 15 WSW MFR 20 NW RBL 65 WNW BIH 55 NNW NID 35 E BFL 40 NE SBA 25 WSW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN U.S... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA SHIFT EWD. LEADING VORT MAX NEAR CENTRAL CA WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...AS NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS ESEWD INTO SERN ORE/NRN CA IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NOW OCCURRING WITH LEADING SYSTEM WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING UNDER POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR NOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL STILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL SIZE WILL BE MITIGATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY. ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN MO... APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT FORECAST ACROSS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH CONVECTION NOW ACROSS SERN TX. FARTHER NORTH...LLJ AXIS ON 12Z MODELS REMAINS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...EXPECT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO WILL BE LIGHT AND THUNDER-FREE LATER TONIGHT. ..EVANS.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 19:50:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 14:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412311952.iBVJqAEY030668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311949 SWODY1 SPC AC 311947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 45 S EUG 15 WSW MFR 10 WNW RBL 65 SSE TVL 35 NNW NID 25 WNW EDW 40 NE SBA 25 WSW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN ORE/NRN-CNTRL CA... VIGOROUS SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND PARENT PAC NW UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE SRN VLYS OF CNTRL CA...PRIMARILY FROM FRESNO SWD ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT...ISOLD C-G LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THIS AREA. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSOLATION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA AND WRN ORE. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE SIERRA AND THE SAN JOAQUIN/SACRAMENTO VLYS. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY... RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADVECTING MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS NWD THROUGH ERN TX TO THE LOWER OH VLY. ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB INHIBITING SURFACE BASED PARCELS FROM REACHING LFC/S. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING. LATER TONIGHT...ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY...BUT PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 00:52:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2004 19:52:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412010054.iB10sHE17332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010052 SWODY1 SPC AC 010050 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BVE 40 E LUL 35 SW BNA 15 NNE LUK 20 SSE UNI 25 WNW BKW 20 N GSP 30 E CSG 25 SSE CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OH VLY BY 12Z. RATHER EXPANSIVE WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VLY. THE STRONGEST TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY HIGHER. BUT...GIVEN THAT STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND REMNANT CAP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS SRN AL. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN HAS MOISTENED YIELDING WEAK BUOYANCY. GIVEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT YET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...A FEW ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE FORCED TO A COLD ENOUGH LAYER /BELOW MINUS 20C/ TO PRODUCE SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID TN VLY TO THE OH RVR. ..RACY.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 05:24:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 00:24:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412010526.iB15QWE29962@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010524 SWODY1 SPC AC 010522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE EFK 10 SW EPM ...CONT... 30 SE EWN NHK 15 NE CXY 15 NW BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MS RVR WILL AMPLIFY AND QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT...SITUATED ALONG THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL SWEEP EWD AND OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL NON-SEVERE TSTMS...1/ ERN MID-ATLANTIC-NEW ENGLAND AND 2/ ERN NC AREA. 1/ STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL PA/NY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE FORCED TO AOB MINUS 20C. THUS...SPORADIC LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH... PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL NY/ERN PA NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 2/ FARTHER S...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE... THOUGH...AND GIVEN WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 12:59:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 07:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412011301.iB1D1mE25635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011258 SWODY1 SPC AC 011257 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 25 S DOV 15 ENE CXY 25 WSW PSB 15 ENE ERI ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 10 SW EPM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS/NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AXIS OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR YYZ WILL NEVERTHELESS LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS PATTERN FAVORS FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS THE NERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY. ...PA/NJ/NY INTO NEW ENG... A NARROW BAND OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT...PARTIALLY EVIDENCED BY WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET...WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT CROSSING PA/NJ/NY AND NEW ENG. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH WRN NEW ENG BY 17Z...AND MOVE OFF THE MA CST BY 20Z. SOMEWHAT SLOWER EWD PROGRESS APPEARS LIKELY IN ME. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION...BAND OF INTENSE /60+ KT/ LOW TO MID LEVEL WSW FLOW ACCOMPANYING EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED UPRIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN OBSERVED DEGREE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY /PER COOL AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS AT BUF...PIT AND IAD/. THUS...ANY CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. FARTHER S...DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND ERN NC. THUS... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY...DESPITE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AT TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..CORFIDI.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 16:18:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 11:18:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412011620.iB1GKME02419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011612 SWODY1 SPC AC 011611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THIS SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING CONVECTION...THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FAVOR NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...COLD/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE...COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF TSTMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT GENERAL TSTM FORECAST. ..EVANS.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 19:45:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 14:45:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412011947.iB1Jl6E23665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011945 SWODY1 SPC AC 011943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 12/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 00:22:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 19:22:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412020024.iB20OAE01095@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020020 SWODY1 SPC AC 020018 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0618 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... INTENSE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF MAINE THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE NATION...WITH A DRY...COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 05:05:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 00:05:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412020507.iB257UE26525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020505 SWODY1 SPC AC 020503 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 PM CST WED DEC 01 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL EXPAND EWD...WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER CA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY... RESULTING IN STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST ACROSS SRN TX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME ELY...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL INHIBIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ..IMY.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 12:47:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 07:47:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412021248.iB2CmxE26378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021246 SWODY1 SPC AC 021244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ACROSS DEEP S TX...GLANCING INFLUENCE OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS. BUT STABLE AND LARGELY DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RISK FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 16:10:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 11:10:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412021612.iB2GClE02200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021605 SWODY1 SPC AC 021605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1005 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF U.S. WITH CONFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..AFWA.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 2 19:31:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 14:31:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412021933.iB2JXCE26556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021931 SWODY1 SPC AC 021930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0130 PM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF FORECAST AREA WITH CONFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING A FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IMPULSE MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND AREAS APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ..AFWA.. 12/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 00:44:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 02 Dec 2004 19:44:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412030046.iB30k7E19528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030043 SWODY1 SPC AC 030041 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH THE RESULTING COOL AND DRY AIR MASS UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..IMY.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 05:02:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 00:02:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412030504.iB354qE22839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030502 SWODY1 SPC AC 030501 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 PM CST THU DEC 02 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE STRONG COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...WLY WINDS FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER NEAR THE SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS BAJA FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE FROM EXTREME SRN CA EWD ACROSS AZ. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UVV/S AND MOISTENING MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO MORE THAN A 5-10K FOOT DEPTH BETWEEN LFC AND EL...SO THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED. ..IMY.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 12:57:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 07:57:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412031259.iB3CxDE02850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031257 SWODY1 SPC AC 031255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 45 S ALI 10 N ALI 25 SSW VCT 45 SW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST... 12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE OF 200-300 J/KG BASED NEAR 750 MB...WHICH IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN SHOWN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS. THIS INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ...WRN NY... A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING S OF BUF ALONG THE ERIE LAKE SHORE. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE LOWER LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHERE WEAK BUOYANCY BELOW 500 MB WAS AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ASCENT SPREADS E OF LAKE ERIE...AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER FROM WSWLY TO WNWLY. ..THOMPSON.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 16:35:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 11:35:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412031637.iB3GbVE20402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031633 SWODY1 SPC AC 031631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 45 S ALI 10 N ALI 25 SSW VCT 45 SW GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF FAST ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING FROM CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CA COAST ACROSS TX. WEAK EMBEDDED FEATURES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF UVVS ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ..HART.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 19:38:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 14:38:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412031939.iB3JdxE23407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031937 SWODY1 SPC AC 031935 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 15 SW VCT 30 WSW HOU 15 W LCH 20 NNW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/LA COAST... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME FROM NRN MEXICO EWD ACROSS GULF COAST. WHILE LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT VWPS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WAA ABOVE BOUNDARY-LAYER. LARGER-SCALE FORCING ACROSS REGION IS ALSO LIKELY BEING AUGMENTED BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PERSISTENCE OF THESE FORCING MECHANISMS AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX/LA COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ..MEAD.. 12/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 00:36:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 19:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412040038.iB40cXE07327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040035 SWODY1 SPC AC 040033 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 50 WSW HOU 55 S LFK 30 NW LFT 40 SSE GPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SPLIT FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SW OF THE CA COAST DIVERTS STRONG SRN BRANCH ACROSS NRN MEXICO EWD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE NRN BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES WITHIN THE SRN STREAM ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ESEWD JUST S OF THE FL KEYS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 250-300 MB FLOW ALONG SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT. RAOB DATA INDICATES STRONG ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO CONTINUE THRU 04/06Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 04:53:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 23:53:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412040454.iB44spE31802@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040452 SWODY1 SPC AC 040450 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 50 N PSX 35 S AUS 25 SSE JCT 25 NNW SJT 30 WSW CDS 25 WNW GAG 35 SSW ICT 35 SW JLN 40 SSE PGO 35 SW PBF 25 W CBM 0A8 30 WSW TOI PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SW OF SBA NEAR 33N 123W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CA BEFORE MINORING OUT AND MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BY 05/12Z. MODELS SEEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO WITH THE ETA MODEL PLACING A SERIES OF LOWS ALONG THE PLAINS. WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE MAIN LOW WOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN CO/WRN OK PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. THUS... IF THERE IS ONE AREA WHERE THE MODEL ENSEMBLE DIFFERS IS THE ONSET OF UVVS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. ONE PERSISTENT FEATURE IS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM. BAND OF 100 TO 130 KT WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN MEXICO EWD AND NEWD INTO TX BY AFTN THEN INTO ERN OK BY 05/12Z. MODELS ALSO BRING A MID LEVEL BRANCH ACROSS S CENTRAL TX INTO WRN LA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PLACES AREAS NRN TX AND OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGIONS TO ENHANCE ASCENT. SLY TO SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-45 KT ACROSS W CENTRAL TX INTO OK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS ENHANCING ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 05/06Z IN THE VICINITY OF 850 MB WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TX. MODELS ALSO GENERATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OF 6.5C/KM DUE TO WELL MIXED AIR OFF THE SRN PLATEAU WHICH WOULD PLAY AS A BOUNDARY PROMOTING LIFT FOR THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY FROM CENTRAL TX EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LA SEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL FL. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET. LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS BOTH AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 13:01:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 08:01:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412041303.iB4D3IE28323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041300 SWODY1 SPC AC 041258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GLS 50 N PSX 15 SW SAT 40 SSE JCT 20 N JCT 40 WNW MWL 15 W END 15 E PNC 25 E TUL 45 NW TXK 40 W ELD 35 NNW JAN 20 W MEI 40 N MOB 35 S MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW TCS 30 SE SAD 45 N TUS 25 E PHX 45 SE PRC 25 SW INW 30 WSW GUP 25 NE GNT 10 SE ABQ 45 SE ONM 30 SSW TCS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME. WITHIN THIS SRN BRANCH...A MID LEVEL LOW NOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS AZ/NM TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A BROAD MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN AZ/NM/SW TX PRECEDES THE SRN CA TROUGH...WHILE MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NW GULF COAST. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA PATTERN FROM CENTRAL AND ERN OK AND TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER W...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS AZ/NM...WHILE THE MID LEVELS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST. THE 12Z TUS SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING LATER TODAY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...GIVEN OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE PATH OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE RIM COUNTRY OF ERN AZ INTO NM...THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..THOMPSON.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 15:23:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 10:23:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412041524.iB4FOrE10987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041521 SWODY1 SPC AC 041520 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 AM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT CLL AUS 10 SE DRT 20 SSE P07 MAF CDS FSI TXK ELD JAN PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVC 30 SE SAD 45 N TUS 25 E PHX 45 SE PRC INW GUP 25 NE GNT ABQ 45 SE ONM SVC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW OFF THE CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...INTO NM/WEST TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING UVVS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY OVER WEST TX...SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TX LATE TONIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION. INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z ACROSS MUCH OF OK. HOWEVER... THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW. ...LA/MS/AL... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL OFF THE LA COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD...PREVENTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...NM/AZ... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM. STRONG UPWARD FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...ALONG WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ..HART.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 19:52:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 14:52:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412041954.iB4JsGE14121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041952 SWODY1 SPC AC 041950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 45 SSE CLL AUS 10 SE DRT 20 SSE P07 MAF 10 E CDS 30 ESE FSI TXK ELD 25 SSE MEI 15 ESE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SVC 35 NNE FHU 30 W TUS 15 ENE GBN 35 SSE PRC INW GUP 25 NE GNT ABQ 45 SE ONM SVC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST... AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EWD ONTO THE SRN CA COAST WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY. WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY BROAD SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /VIA WAA/...THIS MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL ENHANCE NWD/NEWD MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE GULF COAST. NONETHELESS...THIS WEAK INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST. ...AZ/NM... AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS BECOMING PROGRESSIVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL AZ. POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD INTO REGION. ..MEAD.. 12/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 00:24:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 19:24:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412050026.iB50Q6E09080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050023 SWODY1 SPC AC 050021 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0621 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GLS 45 NNE BPT 25 SSE ESF 65 NE MOB 25 SSW CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SIX TO 12 HOURS OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING SWRN AZ SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE -- S OF FRONT OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL GULF -- IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...PRECLUDING ANY SURFACE-BASED THUNDER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY DESPITE LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL THUNDER AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM EXTREME SERN TX EWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...BUT EXPECT ANY ELEVATED STORMS TO OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD AND TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 05:55:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 00:55:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412050557.iB55vME20190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050555 SWODY1 SPC AC 050553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST SAT DEC 04 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE MRF MAF 45 SW SPS 25 WNW LIT 25 N DYR 40 ESE BWG 25 WNW LGC 20 W PFN ...CONT... 40 ENE CRP 25 WNW ALI 40 NW LRD. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE SECOND / LARGER TROUGH -- NOW OFF THE WEST COAST -- MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO RETREAT SLOWLY NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOIST GULF AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LACK OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. ...SERN TX / SWRN LA... DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK / LIMITED IN COVERAGE. NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD FORECAST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION. THOUGH UPDRAFT INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF / TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION SUPPORT A LOW-END THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...LOW-PROBABILITY THUNDER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...AS WELL AS DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW -- AND CONDITIONAL UPON STORM DEVELOPMENT. ..GOSS.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 12:52:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 07:52:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412051254.iB5CsGE27999@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051252 SWODY1 SPC AC 051250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0650 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VBG 30 NE OXR 25 WSW TRM 25 SW BLH 65 WNW GBN 25 NE GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE MRF 35 NW MAF 10 S LBB 55 SSW CDS 45 WSW SPS 30 NNE MWL 50 WSW TYR 25 WSW SHV 25 WNW ELD 35 W POF 10 WNW MDH 10 N OWB 10 SW LEX 15 SSW JKL 30 WNW HSS 35 E CHA 20 S ANB 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SW GLS 50 ESE SAT 55 SSE DRT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL EJECT NEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD OVER EXTREME SRN CA/AZ AND ADJACENT NW MEXICO. A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE TX/LA COASTS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...N/NE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE STORM THREAT TO REMAIN MINIMAL WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA. LATER TONIGHT...ASCENT WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER W CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH TIME WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL COLD POOL WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES /AS EVIDENCED BY SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES W AND SW OF LAX/ SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NEAR THE SRN CA COAST...AND EARLY TONIGHT INTO SW AZ ALONG THE PATH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. ..THOMPSON.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 16:18:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 11:18:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412051620.iB5GKOE22391@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051616 SWODY1 SPC AC 051614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE VBG 30 NE OXR TRM BLH GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX LFK GGG 50 NNW HOT UNO MVN SDF LEX 25 NNW TRI AVL ATL MGM PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST TX INTO TN VALLEY... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK/KS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY MON MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS TX/LA...TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STRONG UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION HAVE GENERATED A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM EAST TX INTO MO/AR/MS. ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AND INTO KY/TN/GA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SOUTHWEST FLANK OF PRECIP SHIELD MAY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING AND LIMITED FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. ...CA/AZ... POTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ..HART.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 19:44:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 14:44:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412051946.iB5JkTE25754@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051945 SWODY1 SPC AC 051943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE VBG 30 NE OXR TRM BLH GBN 40 WNW TUS 50 SSW TUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 25 NNE CLL 20 NNE TYR 45 ESE FSM UNO MVN SDF LEX 25 NNW TRI AVL ATL 15 NNE TOI 25 S CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E TX INTO THE TN VALLEY... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ESTABLISHED FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY IS SUPPORTING LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CNTRL LOW PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT JUST ONSHORE OF THE TX/LA COASTS...NWD ALONG LLJ AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE GREATEST INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IS OCCURRING. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...EXPECT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INHERENT TSTM THREAT TO DEVELOP AS FAR NE AS THE OH VALLEY ALONG LLJ AXIS. WHILE SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. ...SRN CA/AZ... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. LDS DATA INDICATE PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY SE OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE MORE EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT THIS REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CA AND AZ. ..MEAD.. 12/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 06:00:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 01:00:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412060602.iB662OE03758@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060600 SWODY1 SPC AC 060558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE TPL ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 20 SE PAH 45 NE MKL 25 ENE TUP 40 NE HEZ 45 WSW POE 35 ESE TPL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PSX 10 NW CRP 40 ENE LRD 25 NW LRD 20 E DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS ADM 20 ENE FSM 35 E UNO 35 SW HUF 55 WNW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 ESE HOB 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 30 NNW SZL 40 WSW PIA 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 15 E HTS 20 NE MGM 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX / FAR SERN OK / PARTS OF AR / WRN TN / NWRN MS / NRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. / NWRN MEXICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT. THIS TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY 85 TO 90 KT JET -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE...WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN TERMS OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE A SECONDARY WARM FRONT -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST GULF AIRMASS -- NOW MOVING NWD ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS TX / OK THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN ON TOWARD THE MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS... MAIN BAND OF WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MOVING EWD INTO THE ERN CONUS ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER FAR SERN CO / SWRN KS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN / MOVE TOWARD S CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX...WHILE WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST GULF AIRMASS /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ RETREATS NWD ACROSS SERN OK / SRN AR / THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THOUGH HEATING SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUDINESS / LIGHT PRECIPITATION...UVV AND MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION -- PARTICULARLY S OF WARM FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE / INTENSIFY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AND PERHAPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF E TX / SERN OK / AR / LA...AS WELL AS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK / CENTRAL TX. VERY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- IN THE 65 TO 85 KT RANGE -- ABOVE STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS BY AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO BECOME SEVERE / SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING / SHEAR AND MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERE FAVOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT SWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND VICINITY. WITH TIME...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY. INCREASING LINEAR CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. VERY STRONG /60-PLUS/ WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ALONG SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 12:46:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 07:46:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412061248.iB6CmtE09061@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061246 SWODY1 SPC AC 061245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CLL 10 E ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 40 N DYR 50 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 55 W JAN 30 WSW POE 20 NW CLL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 45 ENE COT 55 WNW COT 25 NNW DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS ADM 20 ENE FSM 35 E UNO 35 SW HUF 55 WNW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 20 SE ELP 30 ENE ALM 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 35 ENE MKC 30 SE MLI 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 10 NNE 5I3 10 N SEM 35 SSW MOB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NE TX ACROSS SRN/ERN AR AND NRN LA TO NW MS AND WRN TN.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA.... ...TX TO MS VALLEY AREA... A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NW MEXICO AND SE AZ WILL EJECT ENEWD TO OK BY LATE TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS OK/SRN KS...AND THIS DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD TO CENTRAL/NRN ILLINOIS BY EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM THE SRN PLAINS TODAY TO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NRN/NWRN EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WHERE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...ROUGHLY ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM LFK AND TYR NEWD TO ABOUT MEM. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SOUNDINGS CONFIRM BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WITHIN A DEEP MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME /FROM NRN MEXICO NEWD TO THE MS RIVER/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ACROSS TX...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS LA/SRN AR/NW MS MAY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR PEAK VALUES BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE MUCH TODAY OVER THAT ALREADY NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC BAND ACROSS SRN NM TO MOVE INTO W CENTRAL TX AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NW TX AND OK TO MO/IL OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE INVOF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE STRONGER FORCING ENCOUNTERS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SWD INTO THE RICHER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN EXTENT LIMITED BY A SUBSTANTIAL CAP OVER S TX. THE INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS TX MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE EXPECTED LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 40-70 KT LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW FROM E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER E...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR/INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM NE TX ACROSS NW LA/SE AR AND NW MS LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SE TX/LA/MS...BUT A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. ..THOMPSON.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 16:30:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 11:30:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412061633.iB6GXEE28260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061631 SWODY1 SPC AC 061629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CLL 10 E ACT 10 SSE DAL 25 W PRX 40 N DYR 50 SSE PAH 40 NNE TUP 55 W JAN 30 WSW POE 20 NW CLL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSX 45 ENE COT 55 WNW COT 25 NNW DRT 55 W SJT 70 WSW SPS 10 SSW ADM 35 ENE FSM 30 NNW UNO ALN 20 S DNV 50 NW LUK 45 SW LEX 35 NNE MEI 15 S 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ELP 30 ENE ALM 50 NNW CDS 35 SSE P28 35 ENE MKC 30 SE MLI 10 N SBN TOL 30 NW ZZV 10 NNE 5I3 10 N SEM 35 SSW MOB ...CONT... 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX...ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NM IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 12Z ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TROUGH IS STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FROM TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ...WEST/CENTRAL TX TODAY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR MAF. THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS AREA COULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ON NOSE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MAY ALSO ALLOW STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. ...EAST TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...WEST TN...NWRN MS... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AS STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION FIELD OVERSPREADS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING AT MID LEVELS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THIS AREA WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE IN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN AR/NRN LA AND INTO PARTS OF TN/MS. ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY RACE THROUGH THIS AREA WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SUGGEST THAT DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR WEAK CAPE VALUES. ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER MO/IL LATE TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF LOW MAY TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO REGION FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. FOCUSED ASCENT IN VICINITY OF LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A NARROW LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/SERN IND...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. ..HART.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 20:16:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 15:16:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412062019.iB6KJ1E29891@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062014 SWODY1 SPC AC 062012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ESF 15 NNE LFK 20 WNW TPL 20 SSE BWD 45 WNW MWL 40 ESE SPS 40 SW PGO 10 N LIT 60 ENE PBF 20 NNW GWO 35 SSW GWO 40 WNW ESF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 40 S SAT 55 NNE DRT 20 N SJT 20 SSW LTS 30 N OKC 15 SW VIH 10 NW HUF 40 SE IND 20 S SDF 45 N HSV 15 SSW CBM 40 SSE LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 15 SW LRD ...CONT... 70 S MRF 35 SE CNM 25 NNW AMA 45 NE GAG 35 E MKC 10 SW UIN 45 NNW LAF 30 ENE FWA 25 N DAY 25 SSE DAY 50 E RMG 30 SSW MOB. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...SERN OK...SRN AR...AND NRN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...NCNTRL TX/SRN OK ACROSS TEXARKANA AREA... POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS N TX THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE AND CONTINUE TO ACT UPON MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STRONG FORCING WAS ALREADY SUSTAINING A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM SWRN OK SWD ACROSS NWRN TX TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE AS DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ALSO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING. 18Z RAOBS FROM FWD AND SHV INDICATED LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING...SHOULD PROVIDE A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TSTM UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN EMERGENT LINEAR STRUCTURE...WEAK CAPE...AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SUCH A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT...MAIN HAZARD ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SQUALL LINE. ...SERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY... WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS SERN OK AND SRN AR AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR ABI. AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES FROM SERN TX NEWD ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS PLUME OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...AS STRONGER FORCING...FLOW FIELDS...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXPECT ISOLD SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM HOU AREA ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER. EVENTUALLY THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THESE REGIONS BRINGING A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NERN TX GULF COAST AND AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE MS RIVER AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. ..CARBIN.. 12/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 05:37:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 00:37:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412080540.iB85e1E05327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080538 SWODY1 SPC AC 080537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST TUE DEC 07 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PSX 45 SE CLL 30 SSE TXK 40 ENE PBF 35 SE MKL 20 WSW CHA 10 NE RMG 15 ESE CSG 15 NE MAI 30 SSE CEW. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES / SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF LATE THIS EVENING. GULF PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NWD INTO ERN TX AND GULF COAST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND POSSIBLY A VERY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX EWD ACROSS LA INTO MS... MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE N CENTRAL / NWRN GULF ATTM S OF COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BEGIN RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL DIURNAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX / NRN LA IN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT. THOUGH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE / FORCING IS ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT WITHIN WARM SECTOR...GENERAL / BROAD WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. WITH 50 TO 60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES / WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE MOST PART -- LIKELY EVEN WITHIN WARM SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW / RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST -- THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE / SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO MS AND PERHAPS AL. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SUGGEST ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 12:47:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 07:47:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412081250.iB8Co2E30084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081247 SWODY1 SPC AC 081245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0645 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 35 ESE TPL 25 W TXK 35 SSW JBR 15 SSW CKV 30 NNE CSV 10 ESE TYS 20 SW AND 20 S MCN 30 ENE AQQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH...A SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. S OF THIS FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. A LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER SW KS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS KS/OK/TX AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...INDUCING SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE RETURNING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...NW GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY... INCREASINGLY MOIST WAA PATTERN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE TX/LA. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD AS FAR NEWD AS TN AND NRN AL/GA LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INLAND NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. MODIFIED REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB...WHICH AGREES REASONABLY WELL WITH ETA/ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT THE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPER THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS...AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST DESTABILIZATION INLAND. STILL...MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ AND INSTABILITY BASED NEAR THE GROUND SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM SE TX THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL MS OVERNIGHT. ...NRN ORE AND WA COASTS... 12Z UIL SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION... WHILE OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAS REVEALED ISOLATED STRIKES OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WILL BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA. ..THOMPSON.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 16:17:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 11:17:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412081619.iB8GJhE08348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081614 SWODY1 SPC AC 081612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP CLL HOT JBR BWG LOZ HSS AND MCN 10 WNW PFN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NM...ALONG WITH SECONDARY SYSTEM UT/AZ...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES JUST OFF THE TX/LA COAST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. GULF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR GLS/LCH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500 J/KG...ALTHOUGH THE 09Z ETAKF SOLUTION INDICATES A STRONGER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WEAKER INSTABILITY. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERSISTENT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ..HART.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 19:35:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 14:35:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412081938.iB8Jc3E17712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081935 SWODY1 SPC AC 081934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP 20 W CLL 15 ENE LIT DYR BWG 25 E HSS 45 N ATL LGC TOI 35 SE MOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BLI 55 NE PDX PDX 25 N ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/GULF COASTAL AREAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO THE TEXAS COAST. MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR INCREASING SHALLOW CONVECTION IN BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF REGION INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS CURRENTLY CAPPING CONVECTION NEAR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...MORE RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR. LIFTED PARCELS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE MID -LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN COOLER. DEEP CONVECTION...INCLUDING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL THEN DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ABOVE WARM FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HAIL...AND HAIL SIZES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/CAPE. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. EVEN ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MITIGATED BY PRESENCE OF SHALLOW NOCTURNAL NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. WARM SECTOR MAY SPREAD INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. AS INFLUENCE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES...INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE HOUSTON/LAKE CHARLES AREAS BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY STRONG AS BROAD 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTS AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE UPPER FORCING SUPPORTS NARROW SQUALL LINE ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN LESS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH REGARD TO DEPTH OF STABLE SURFACE LAYER...WITH MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW INCREASING INTO 40-50+ KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...A LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST NEAR OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY/TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ..KERR.. 12/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 01:04:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 20:04:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412090106.iB916QE03676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090103 SWODY1 SPC AC 090102 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 30 N BPT 20 NNW LFT 25 N HUM 45 SSE HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 30 E NIR 50 N NIR 20 SSE AUS 20 SE TPL 45 SSE PGO 15 WSW ARG 20 SSE PAH 15 NNE BNA 15 SSW CSV 50 SSW TYS 30 W AND 35 W CAE 45 ESE CAE 20 ENE CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 SE MCN 35 ESE CSG 35 W DHN 10 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG A SMALL PORTION OF THE NERN TX GULF COAST AND THE LA GULF COAST... ...NE TX AND LA GULF COAST INLAND ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY... EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING TWO FAST MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE LEAD IMPULSE WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS...WHILE THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER W TX. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS ERN TX AND LA IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS PROCESS HAS RESULTED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ON AND NORTH OF A COASTAL WARM FRONT SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A VCT-GLS-BVE LINE. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...WHILE CURRENTLY CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREADS QUICKLY EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS INCREASING NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LA ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE...OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED...STORMS. SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR POSSIBLY SPREADING ONSHORE WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY SO CLOSE TO SHORE...HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SUPPORT A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA FROM THE SABINE RIVER EAST ACROSS COASTAL LA. ..CARBIN.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 06:02:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 01:02:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412090604.iB964t925289@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090602 SWODY1 SPC AC 090600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW HUM 40 ENE JAN 40 S MSL 20 NNE GAD 35 W ATL 20 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 ESE BPT MLU 15 ESE POF 20 SW BLV 35 SSE SPI 10 WNW CMI 45 S SBN 20 S TOL 30 NW HLG 45 NE CRW 45 NW TRI 15 WSW AVL HKY 25 SE LYH 15 NE RIC 15 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MS AND MUCH OF AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AREAS THIS PERIOD AS AN INTENSE SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...PROMOTE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS IL/IND AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS STRONG AMPLIFICATION...A DEAMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE GULF AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LA AND PORTIONS OF MS/AL AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE SAME UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A NARROW WARM SECTOR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. BY LATE TONIGHT...VERY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 120-150M WILL OCCUR FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND COULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS SRN AL... THERE ARE A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE FORECAST OF INSTABILITY AND INLAND DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SERN LA INTO PARTS OF SRN MS. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND FORCING APPEAR TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE OF HAIL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...PERHAPS FROM THE SRN MS/AL BORDER AREAS ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. EVEN AS THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THESE AREAS INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS PERSISTING WITHIN TRAILING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COULD TAP INTO GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. ETA MODEL IS FCSTG A PLUME OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF ACTIVE SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE MODEL...COUPLED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. WHILE SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM MS NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT /SEE BELOW/. ...ERN CAROLINAS... A DIFFICULT FCST ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND ETAKF...AS WELL AS THE LATEST NCEP-SREF...INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG/ WILL PRECEED THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS SC AND ERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ETA AND GFS BOTH PRODUCE CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE ETAKF PRODUCES MUCH OF ITS QPF AWAY FROM THE COAST AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. VERY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN AREAS WOULD BE SEVERE. SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH SOME WIND AND TORNADO THREAT...MAY BE ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...FRONTAL WAVE...FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A LATER UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF GREATER FCST CONSENSUS EVOLVES. ...TN/OH VALLEYS LATE... LITTLE CONSENSUS ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY LATEST GFS...BUT...AS NOTED ABOVE...STRONG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BASED ON THE LATEST ETA. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES THROUGH LATE EVENING. TSTMS...MOST LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD INCREASE AS DYNAMIC FORCING INTENSIFIES. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND TIME OF DAY...HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 12:53:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 07:53:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412091255.iB9Ctk929771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091253 SWODY1 SPC AC 091252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BVE 25 WSW LUL 40 NNE MEI 40 NW BHM 35 NNE GAD 25 ESE RMG 35 E LGC 20 NW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE JAX 30 WNW CTY ...CONT... 7R4 25 E GWO 40 SSE POF 15 SW MDH 25 ESE MVN 20 SSW BMG 25 W LUK 35 NNW HTS 25 WNW BKW 20 SSW BLF 35 SSE PSK 25 SE LYH 15 NE RIC 15 ESE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SE LA/MS ACROSS AL TO NW GA TODAY.... ...SYNOPSIS... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER LA/AR WILL MOVE EWD TODAY TO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA NOW EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD AND RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD TO THE NRN GULF STATES AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE IA AREA TO THE OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INLAND ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT... RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...COMBINED WITH 35-50 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND 50-70 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE SE MS/AL/NW GA AREA. ...SE LA/SE MS/AL/NW GA AREA TODAY... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES FROM SE LA NEWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN AL...WITH THE CONVECTION GENERALLY ELEVATED TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG I-20. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS ERN MS NEAR A WAVE ON THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WAVE SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO AL THROUGH THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD OVER SRN AR/NW LA. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY NEAR AND E OF THE ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 50 KT...AND 0-3 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 NEAR AND E OF THE BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND...A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...MS/TN/KY AREA BY TONIGHT... STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO AREAS NEAR/S OF THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE BY TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MS RIVER. 06Z ETA SOUNDINGS MAY BE TOO UNSTABLE W/NW OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM BAND...OWING TO THE SHALLOW CONVECTION SCHEME. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN TN/KY AREA BY EARLY TONIGHT...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE SMALL. ..THOMPSON.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 16:01:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 11:01:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412091603.iB9G3x916269@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091557 SWODY1 SPC AC 091556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BVE LUL TCL GAD RMG AHN 45 ESE MCN 30 S TLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TUP HOP SDF CRW SSU CHO DCA ACY ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES... ...AL/GA/SC/NC... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AL/GA HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN EASTERN AL/WESTERN GA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF REMAINING ACTIVITY...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS GA SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MAX MUCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG. THREAT EXISTS FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS IN THIS AREA. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST- NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SC/NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS RETURNING TO THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY. AS IN GA...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS TONIGHT. ...TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON... AIR MASS IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE FROM MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN AL. ETA MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION... WITH RUC/ETAKF SOLUTIONS SHOWING WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL IN THIS AREA TODAY. ..HART.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 20:03:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 15:03:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412092005.iB9K5E903225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092001 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W AQQ 10 NNW MCN 35 WSW AGS AGS 55 S CAE 40 NE SAV 25 E SAV ...CONT... 15 NE SSI 30 W JAX 35 WNW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY ...CONT... 35 WSW BVE 40 E LUL 15 WSW HOP 30 ENE SDF 30 NNW UNI 40 WSW MGW 10 N CHO DCA ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN FL INTO SRN GA AND SRN SC... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TN PER WV IMAGERY... WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD TO THE NERN STATES. ...SERN STATES... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UPPER 60-LOWER 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS GA AND ERN PORTIONS OF SC/NC. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING OVER ERN GA/SRN SC MAY SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID TN VALLEY AND THE APPROACH OF DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROUGH COMBINED WITH WAA SHOULD MAINTAIN ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS NRN FL TO SRN SC. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED GIVEN CURRENT VEERED /I.E. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS/ FLOW IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING STORMS FROM SC TO NRN FL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE OVERALL POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER NW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF KY SWWD TO NRN AL AS 120-150 M HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD OVER THIS AREA AND LEADING EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVES ATOP RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. ..PETERS.. 12/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 01:07:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 20:07:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412100109.iBA19w928449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100108 SWODY1 SPC AC 100106 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABY 15 N MGM 25 S BHM 25 N BHM 45 N GAD 15 SSE CHA 50 NNW AHN 15 WSW GSP CLT 30 N SOP 20 NW RWI 40 NE RWI 40 WSW ECG 30 NNE EWN OAJ 25 ESE FLO 40 S FLO 30 N CHS 30 N SAV 40 W SAV 40 NE ABY 40 NNW ABY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 40 E LUL 35 NNW MEI 20 ESE TUP 45 SE MVN 25 SE MIE ZZV 25 SE HLG 35 SW MRB 20 WNW BWI ACY ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 SSE CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN AL...NRN GA...AND SC... ...SOUTHEAST... EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DEPICT WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INHIBITION CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG FROM ERN AL ACROSS GA AND INTO SRN SC AND SERN NC. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT WAS ALSO SITUATED ACROSS THIS REGION...GENERALLY ALONG A BHM...ATL...NORTH OF CAE...TO GSB LINE. AS OUTLINED IN LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2526...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS AL/GA AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND BRINGS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE TN/OH VLYS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXISTENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND THE FCST OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS MESOSCALE LIFT AND SHEAR...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER TO THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...AND INCREASING FLOW...COULD RESULT SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOPING WITH ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. STORM MOTION ACROSS GA ATTM WAS RESULTING IN CELLS CROSSING TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. ZONE OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC NEAR THE BOUNDARY MIGHT ALSO FAVOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS CROSS THE WARM FRONT. INITIAL CONVECTION MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GFS RUN AND LESS SO BY THE ETA. ACTIVITY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ANY MCS WILL TAP WARM SECTOR AIR MASS AND EXIST WITHIN HIGH SHEAR/LOW LFC ENVIRONMENT. THUS WIND AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE NEWD WITH TIME. ..CARBIN.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 05:04:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:04:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412100507.iBA57A906479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100504 SWODY1 SPC AC 100502 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 50 ENE ABY 45 WSW AGS 15 WSW AHN 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 25 NW UOX 35 SSE POF 20 WNW CGI 40 ENE SLO 20 SW IND 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY THIS PERIOD AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS STRONG TROUGH...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING FROM OH TO PA TODAY. AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE UNDERGOES OCCLUSION DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD FROM NJ COAST TO CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING. INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE ERN FLANK OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGE SCALE TROUGH WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE TSTMS FROM GA TO NC. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL THROUGH THE DAY. ...CAROLINAS TO SERN VA... BAND OF STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY AS MESOSCALE ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM N FL TO SERN VA. ALTHOUGH CAPE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE PRIMARILY TO WEAK/MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 100KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR FAST MOVING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED AT WHICH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK AND WILL DEPEND ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND EARLY MORNING RAOB DATA FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS. VERY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY...COULD DRIVE A FEW ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN SC AND WRN NC LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY/STEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES MAY DEVELOP BENEATH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. USUALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW TENDS TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION...A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS WARRANTED. ...FL... LOW LEVEL LIFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ALONG LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL CIRCULATION AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS FL DURING THE DAY. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CAPE/WEAK UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE WIND THREAT. ...TN VLY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS... STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY WITHIN THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE QUICKLY UTILIZED BY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD CONTAIN HAIL. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONG FORCING...LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAKENING SHEAR WITHIN SLACK GRADIENT NEAR UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..CARBIN.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 12:45:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 07:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412101247.iBAClo929032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101244 SWODY1 SPC AC 101242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CRE 25 WSW OAJ 25 NW EWN 25 SW ORF 15 ENE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CTY 20 WNW JAX 10 SSE SAV 30 WNW CHS 35 ESE CAE 15 N CAE 40 ESE AHN 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 25 NW UOX 35 SSE POF 20 WNW CGI 40 ENE SLO 20 SW IND 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF ERN NC/EXTREME SE VA... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER AR EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF OH/TN VLY TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED 80+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING E/NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE BAND OF VERY STRONG SSWLY FLOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM AL/GA TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AT LOWER LEVELS...PATTERN HAS BEEN LEFT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED BY AREAS OF SHALLOW OUTFLOW/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WHICH AFFECTED THE ERN SEABOARD DURING THE LAST 24 HRS. COLD FRONT NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR TN/MS VLY REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER... CONVECTIVE-WISE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SE VA/NE NC SWWD INTO NE FL. ...ERN NC/EXTREME SE VA... A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST TIL ABOUT MID MORNING OVER PARTS OF ERN NC AND EXTREME SE VA...AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING SQUALL LINE. AREA VWP DATA CONFIRM MODEL FORECASTS WHICH SHOW DEEP SWLY SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASING AS SPEED MAX APPROACHES REGION. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND QUASI-LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLOGENESIS. BUT LONG...SLIGHTLY HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 60+ KTS OF DEEP SHEAR AND SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS. ONE OR TWO OF THESE MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BRIEF BOWING STRUCTURES AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...NRN/CNTRL FL... TAIL END OF SAME PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AFFECTING GA AND THE CAROLINAS ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. STRENGTH OF DEEP/UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY SHEAR...AOA 50 KTS...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL BOWS. BUT ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. ...UPR TN VLY INTO SRN/CNTRL APLCNS... APPROACH OF COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH AR UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE... COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SERN U.S. TODAY. WHILE A FEW OF THESE MAY YIELD HAIL...BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND WEAKNESS OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..CORFIDI.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 16:25:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 11:25:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412101627.iBAGRC927704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 101624 SWODY1 SPC AC 101622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AHN 25 ENE ATL 25 WSW RMG 45 WSW CHA 40 W CSV 60 SSE SDF 25 WSW HTS 25 N BKW 10 SSW SSU 20 SE PSK 20 SSE CLT 20 E AHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE CTY 50 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 45 SE CAE 30 SSW CAE 45 W AGS 15 W ANB 25 N CBM 35 NNW TUP 30 NNE DYR 30 ESE MDH 45 N EVV 15 ENE BMG 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD FROM MS VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTED BY 100KT NWLY 500MB JET OK/KS ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH AND STRONG RIDGE OVER WRN U.S. OVERNIGHT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY EXITED SERN U.S. WHILE TRAILING SWWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA. BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER OH/ERN KY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON DELMARVA AND MOVES UP THE COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. DEFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN APPALACHIANS SWWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E/SEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS. ...ERN KY/SRN WV SWD INTO NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN SC... COLD AIR ALOFT WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7C/KM AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS 5-7K FT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50F ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING TO RESULT IN MUCAPES FROM 500-800 J/KG DURING AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK WITH WLY FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT ACROSS ERN TN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. ...FL PENINSULA... TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SWD. MID LEVEL WARM AIR IS LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LINE EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR VICINITY OF THE LINE OF 30-40KT AND MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF PRIMARILY BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CELLS IN THE LINE. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY END BY THIS EVENING. ..HALES.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 20:10:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 15:10:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412102012.iBAKCS902912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 102008 SWODY1 SPC AC 102006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AHN 25 SE RMG 25 W RMG 45 ENE HSV 45 E BNA 60 SSE SDF 25 WSW HTS 10 S CRW 25 WNW SSU 30 SE PSK 20 SSE CLT 25 NE AHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N PIE 30 N DAB ...CONT... 30 E CHS 45 SE CAE 30 SSW CAE 45 W AGS 15 W ANB 15 ENE MSL 30 S CKV 30 SW OWB 40 SW BMG 15 ENE BMG 25 NNE DAY 20 SSW MFD 30 S YNG 15 W DUJ 20 NNW IPT 25 NW POU BDL 30 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AS A STRONG 100+ KT MID-UPPER LEVEL JET TRANSLATES TO THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH BY 12Z SATURDAY. ...ERN KY/SRN WV SWD INTO NERN AL/NRN GA/WRN SC... UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KY/TN VALLEY ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KY TO NERN AL AND EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS NRN GA INTO WRN NC/SC WHERE VAD WIND DATA SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS 1-2 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO SRN FL PENINSULA. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/... WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD. 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS THREAT DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. ...SERN VA/ERN NC... EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A SMALL WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR ERN NC/SERN VA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER NEAR 50 N RWI...WHILE VIS IMAGERY INDICATED CU/MODERATE CU ALONG THE FRONT FROM 35 NW ORF TO 45 N CAE. DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED BY CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN SC TO CENTRAL NC AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER SERN VA/ERN NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 12/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 00:40:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 19:40:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412110042.iBB0gI911947@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110040 SWODY1 SPC AC 110038 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0638 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W FMY 20 SSE VRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 45 N ORF 20 ESE NHK 30 NNW SBY 15 E PHL 15 NNE EWR 30 E POU 15 SSW ORH 10 NE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW RIC 20 NNW SOP 50 SSE CLT 20 NNW CAE 25 NW AGS 20 NW MCN 10 NNW CSG 30 NW AUO 20 N ANB 35 WSW CHA 35 WNW CSV 35 W LOZ 15 NNW JKL 25 ENE CRW EKN 40 NNE SHD 25 NE CHO 60 SW RIC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS... DESPITE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ON CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET CORE...TSTMS WERE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY BEING FURTHER EXHAUSTED BY LARGE SCALE OVERTURNING. ...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS NEAR TRIPLE POINT LOW AND COASTAL FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION FROM DELMARVA/NJ AREAS...NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SPARSE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS. ...SRN FL... BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH INTO WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL. MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD SHORE FROM THE GULF AND COULD STILL MOVE OVER SWRN FL AND THE KEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. ..CARBIN.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 05:19:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 00:19:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412110521.iBB5LK903887@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110518 SWODY1 SPC AC 110517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL-ESTABLISHED NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH AND POLAR FRONT PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WRN U.S....AND EXTEND NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO CREST WRN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND THEN ADVANCE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODEST TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXIST WITH BOTH THE DEPARTING EAST COAST TROUGH/LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR GENERALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD RESTRICT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ..CARBIN.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 13:04:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 08:04:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412111306.iBBD6a909277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111304 SWODY1 SPC AC 111302 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. ERN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS COMPLEX UPPER IMPULSE...NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS SWD INTO MIDDLE TN/NRN AL...CONTINUES ESEWD. A NARROW AXIS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE HUDSON VLY/WRN NEW ENG THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY AS LEADING EDGE OF IMPULSE ENCOUNTERS LINGERING AXIS OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE OVER REGION /PER 12Z ALB RAOB/. WHILE THIS MAY YIELD A FEW ELEVATED BUILDUPS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES...SIGNIFICANT THUNDER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. FARTHER W...STRONG UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW CROSSING SRN BC SHOULD MOVE SE INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/COLD AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATED LEFT EXIT REGION... MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR THUNDER. ..CORFIDI.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 16:00:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 11:00:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412111602.iBBG2M930446@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111559 SWODY1 SPC AC 111557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0957 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD TROUGH ERN U.S. WILL BE SHIFTING EWD TO BE OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT. UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALREADY WELL OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVITY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND SOME HEATING FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EWD TO COAST DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...FORECAST REMAINS THAT ANY THUNDER THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS PM WILL BE ISOLATED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ..HALES.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 19:20:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 14:20:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412111922.iBBJMZ903134@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111920 SWODY1 SPC AC 111919 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN ERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EAST OF A MD TO CENTRAL NC LINE. POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MAINTAINING SBCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LOW-TOPPED CU FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE AND DURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..PETERS.. 12/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 00:44:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 19:44:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412120046.iBC0km902946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120045 SWODY1 SPC AC 120043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO ERN MD/DE. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX ROTATING NEWD THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION WHERE 00Z WAL SOUNDING INDICATED LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM. SINCE ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY THE NEXT HOUR SO PRIOR TO MOVING OFFSHORE...NO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL BE ADDED. ELSEWHERE...ENVIRONMENT HAS STABILIZED AS A RESULT OF EXPANSIVE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING INTO THE MS VALLEY...AND NO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 04:54:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 23:54:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412120456.iBC4uT908246@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120454 SWODY1 SPC AC 120453 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HERE... WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEPTHS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND INHERENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..MEAD.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 04:59:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 23:59:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412120502.iBC520909805@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120500 SWODY1 SPC AC 120458 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HERE... WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEPTHS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND INHERENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ..MEAD.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 13:00:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 08:00:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412121302.iBCD2f931706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121300 SWODY1 SPC AC 121258 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI 10 SSW BUF 15 N JHW ERI 30 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF 50 N ROC 50 WSW ART 25 NE ROC 30 NE BUF 25 N BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG /100+ KT/ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER ERN SD/SRN MN EXPECTED TO ELONGATE AND SETTLE SE INTO THE OH/MID MS VLYS THIS PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND BROADENS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. AT LWR LEVELS...DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOULD TRACK ESE TO NEAR TORONTO BY 12Z MONDAY. ...LWR GRT LKS... IN THE WAKE OF ONTARIO SURFACE LOW...FAIRLY DEEP/COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. UNDIRECTIONAL WSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER (SURFACE TO 700 MB) FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXES OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE OVER-WATER FETCH AND ENCOURAGE REGENERATIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT/CUMULUS PLUMES. COUPLED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 20 C AND LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR +10 C...UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME DEEP AND VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. THUS...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER 06Z. ..CORFIDI.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 16:13:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 11:13:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412121615.iBCGFg919513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121612 SWODY1 SPC AC 121610 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF ART 25 NNE SYR 35 E ROC 25 W ROC 20 N BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI BUF 30 ENE JHW 20 SSE ERI 30 ENE CLE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG SURFACE AND COLD UPPER LOW MOVING ESEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BANDS TONIGHT. BY 06Z LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR OCCURRENCE OF LIGHTNING TO LEE OF LE/LO. WITH PREVAILING WSWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT SFC-700MB SETTING UP TONIGHT...OVER WATER TRAJECTORY WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR LAKE BANDS. ..HALES.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 12 19:33:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 14:33:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412121935.iBCJZT915222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121932 SWODY1 SPC AC 121930 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI BUF 30 ENE JHW 20 SSE ERI 30 ENE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF ART 25 NNE SYR 35 E ROC 25 W ROC 20 N BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES... STRONG...COLD SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER LAKE ERIE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE SWLY FETCH ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF BOTH LAKES FOR SNOW BAND GENERATION. LATEST NOAA COASTWATCH LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCH OF LAKE ERIE AT 7-8 C AND THESE SAME VALUES OVER THE ERN PART OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS COLD AIR SPREADS ATOP THE WARM LAKES LATER TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. ..PETERS.. 12/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 00:31:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 12 Dec 2004 19:31:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412130033.iBD0Xp904179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130031 SWODY1 SPC AC 130029 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE 35 N CLE 50 WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI BUF 30 ENE JHW 20 SSE ERI 30 ENE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 45 NNW BUF 55 N BUF ART 25 NNE SYR 35 E ROC 25 W ROC 20 N BUF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE OVER THE UP OF MI AND LAKE HURON WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY LONG FETCH ALONG LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. GIVEN CURRENT LAKE WATERS IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN OWING TO STRONG POST-FRONTAL CAA. AS THIS OCCURS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OWING TO DESTABILIZING LOW-LEVELS. ..MEAD.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 05:06:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 00:06:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412130508.iBD58j922657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130506 SWODY1 SPC AC 130504 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND HEIGHTS REBOUND OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. IN THE W...NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WA COAST WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREAS ATTM. ..MEAD.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 12:56:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 07:56:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412131258.iBDCwq911425@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131257 SWODY1 SPC AC 131255 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS PERIOD AS STRONG IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN NY/PA CONTINUES ENE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS SWEEPS SE TO THE LWR OH VLY. COOL DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS AT LWR LEVELS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR INVOF LK ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ERN LK ERIE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. BUT...WITH TIME...CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NY/PA TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER THE LWR LKS...DESPITE CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLDER AIR IN THE SURFACE-TO-850 MB LAYER. ..CORFIDI.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 16:00:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 11:00:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412131602.iBDG2I926229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131554 SWODY1 SPC AC 131552 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LEE OF LE/LO THRU THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD UNSTABLE WLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS. HOWEVER THUNDER THREAT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED...PRECLUDING AN OUTLOOK AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS DRY AND/OR STABLE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL. ..HALES.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 19:42:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 14:42:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412131944.iBDJiS901899@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131942 SWODY1 SPC AC 131940 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF MI...NRN OH...NW PA AND SWRN NY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION. ..DIAL.. 12/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 00:20:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 19:20:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412140023.iBE0N0926089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140021 SWODY1 SPC AC 140019 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0619 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY -- LAGGING ACROSS FL -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS PERIOD...LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ONSHORE. WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AS WELL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 05:24:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 00:24:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412140526.iBE5QL929710@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140524 SWODY1 SPC AC 140522 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL MEAN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SWD / EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC / GULF OF MEXICO...LEAVING COLD / STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 12:16:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 07:16:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412141218.iBECIi913091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141215 SWODY1 SPC AC 141214 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... COOL...DRY AND LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. ..CORFIDI.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 15:48:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 10:48:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412141550.iBEFoI914217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141545 SWODY1 SPC AC 141543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0943 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A DRY AND/OR STABLE AIR MASS COVERS THE CONUS TODAY PRECLUDING ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..HALES.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 19:35:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 14:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412141937.iBEJbl927310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141936 SWODY1 SPC AC 141934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF WRN MT...ID AND EVENTUALLY INTO WY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO OUTLOOK A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA. ..DIAL.. 12/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 00:42:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2004 19:42:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412150045.iBF0j1928260@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150041 SWODY1 SPC AC 150040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. A LEE TROUGH NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ROCKIES WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...LITTLE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 05:24:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 00:24:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412150527.iBF5R3929640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150525 SWODY1 SPC AC 150523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A DOMINANT SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN PART OF THE US WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EWD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO RETURN NWWD REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD AND DEEPEN OVER THE ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD STEEP LAPSE RATES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...A FEW STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER....LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 12:29:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 07:29:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151231.iBFCVK905251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151228 SWODY1 SPC AC 151227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE ALONG THE W CST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD TODAY AS LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-STRUCTURED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS CONTINUES ESEWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO EDGE NWWD AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CNTRL/SRN TX GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE AND NRN TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ELSEWHERE...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. AND IN THE EAST...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12 HRS OR SO BENEATH SHARP UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NC CST. ..CORFIDI.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 15:58:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 10:58:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151600.iBFG0u903543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151557 SWODY1 SPC AC 151555 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0955 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SYNOPSIS PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE ALONG THE W CST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD TODAY AS LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-STRUCTURED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS CONTINUES ESEWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO EDGE NWWD AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CNTRL/SRN TX GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE AND NRN TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ..HALES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 16:23:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 11:23:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151625.iBFGPS916169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151622 SWODY1 SPC AC 151620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH RIDGE ALONG THE W CST AND MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EWD TODAY AS LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-STRUCTURED DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN/CNTRL RCKYS CONTINUES ESEWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NWRN GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO EDGE NWWD AND POSSIBLY REACH THE CNTRL/SRN TX GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN LOW AMPLITUDE AND NRN TRACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 12Z. ..HALES.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 15 19:41:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 14:41:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412151943.iBFJhn913806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151941 SWODY1 SPC AC 151939 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE TX.. SLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ACROSS E TX AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF MODIFYING GULF AIR INTO SERN TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT OVER SERN TX AS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING. ..DIAL.. 12/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 00:14:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2004 19:14:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412160016.iBG0GU929903@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160014 SWODY1 SPC AC 160012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..DARROW.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 05:24:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 00:24:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412160526.iBG5Qj907477@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160525 SWODY1 SPC AC 160523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST WED DEC 15 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GULF COAST... LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WELL OFF THE TX COAST...AS SFC RIDGING MAINTAINS NLY OFFSHORE FLOW. DESPITE SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION INTO SERN TX...IT APPEARS MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY ALLOW SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG NRN FRINGE OF WRN GULF WAVE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 12:49:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 07:49:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412161251.iBGCpb928074@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161249 SWODY1 SPC AC 161247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... LOW AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NE MEXICO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEAD IMPULSE OF DOUBLE-BARRELED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN BRANCH OF MAIN JET AFFECTING THE SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF TODAY. LOW LEVEL UPLIFT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST. THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AND THEN SETTLE FARTHER E/SE INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MIGHT PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS OFF THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF COAST...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS AFFECTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST OR POINTS INLAND LOOKS MINIMAL. ..CORFIDI.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 15:38:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 10:38:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412161540.iBGFej904894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161538 SWODY1 SPC AC 161536 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0936 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF S TX COAST SEPARATES A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM A MODIFIED MOIST GULF AIRMASS. SUFFICIENT LIFT VICINITY BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ATTM. AS SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SETTLE SEWD ACROSS TX AND NRN MEX...COASTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. THUS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF TX COAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE FAVORABLE LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY SEWD AWAY FROM TX COAST. ..HALES.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 16 19:32:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 14:32:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412161934.iBGJYW915622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161929 SWODY1 SPC AC 161927 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0127 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VIS IMAGERY AND EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED PARALLEL TO THE TX COAST...BUT 50-60 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY DELINEATES WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH FROM A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OZARKS TO NERN TX...WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EWD...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 12/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 00:24:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 19:24:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412170026.iBH0QD906299@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170023 SWODY1 SPC AC 170022 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL GULF COAST... LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG NRN EXTENT OF WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS LA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVE TOO SHALLOW GIVEN THE OVERALL SWD SHIFT TO MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 05:19:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 00:19:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412170521.iBH5LW903210@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170519 SWODY1 SPC AC 170517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CST THU DEC 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN FL... INTENSIFYING UPPER SPEED MAX...WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY OFF THE SRN TIP OF FL PENINSULA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE THEN LIFT NEWD...ROUGHLY 50-100MI OFFSHORE. DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS FOCUSED ZONE OF CONVERGENCE BUT LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER LAND DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 12:30:27 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 07:30:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412171232.iBHCWW912348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171230 SWODY1 SPC AC 171228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..EVANS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 15:57:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 10:57:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412171559.iBHFxv900835@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171556 SWODY1 SPC AC 171554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..WEISS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 17 19:24:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 14:24:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412171926.iBHJQi931752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171924 SWODY1 SPC AC 171923 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..PETERS.. 12/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 00:27:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 19:27:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412180029.iBI0Tx924751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180028 SWODY1 SPC AC 180026 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0626 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH FL... DEEPER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC WAVE OFF THE SERN TIP OF FL WILL TEND TO FOCUS STRONGER UPDRAFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND. ..DARROW.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 05:36:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 00:36:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412180538.iBI5cM923024@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180536 SWODY1 SPC AC 180535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO COOL DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24HR. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DEVELOP OVER WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE DOES WARRANT A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..DARROW.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 12:51:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 07:51:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412181253.iBICrVJ01231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181251 SWODY1 SPC AC 181249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 NW ANJ 15 NE TVC 25 ENE SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 20 NE IMT 50 WNW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GREAT LAKES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS U.P. OF MI BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN/ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT AS VERY COLD H85-H7 AIR MASS AND STRONG NNWLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG SERN SHORE OF LAKE MI LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S F. ..EVANS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 15:58:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 10:58:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412181600.iBIG06xP017022@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181556 SWODY1 SPC AC 181554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ TVC 30 E SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 30 NNW ESC 30 WSW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GREAT LAKES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SRN/ERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD THROUGH THE U.P./WI...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES/3 TO 7C/. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SNOW BANDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI TONIGHT. ...FL KEYS... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FRONT AND CONVECTION SWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..IMY.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 19:45:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 14:45:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412181947.iBIJlccY011938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181945 SWODY1 SPC AC 181944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 182000Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ TVC 30 E SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 30 NNW ESC 30 WSW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN GREAT LAKES... STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES/MS VALLEY...AND TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AS 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS SWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. INFLUX OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LS/LM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS WINDS FROM THE SFC-700 MB VEER TO NLY AND THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES SWD ATOP THE WARM LAKE WATERS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES....ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ..PETERS.. 12/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 00:32:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 19:32:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412190034.iBJ0YCDG025677@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190032 SWODY1 SPC AC 190030 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW ANJ TVC 30 E SBN 30 SSW SBN 15 SE CGX 30 NNE MTW 30 NNW ESC 30 WSW CMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT LAKES... POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF LAKE HURON AND TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LAKE WATERS OF 35-45F SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH A SHALLOW LAYER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL EXIST WITHIN BROADER AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 04:47:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 23:47:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412190449.iBJ4nOeS010720@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190446 SWODY1 SPC AC 190445 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY/TONIGHT OVER THE CONUS WITH PRIMARY FEATURES BEING DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST AND INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. IN IT/S WAKE...A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH/CHINOOK WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ...GREAT LAKES... DESPITE A SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON /ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD/...BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND PASSAGE OF SURFACE HIGH TO THE SE SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE...OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NORMAL ORIENTATION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO LONG LAKE AXES SHOULD LIMIT WATER TO AIR MOISTURE/HEAT FLUXES AND ANY RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. ..MEAD.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 16:09:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 11:09:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412191611.iBJGBfeK018000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191608 SWODY1 SPC AC 191606 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1006 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A STABLE PATTERN OF AN ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH TOMORROW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL DIG ESEWD TO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT...AND LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-8 C/KM NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH AXIS BY LATE TODAY ACROSS SC/NC. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED INLAND...AND ANY SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES WILL BE GREATER. ..THOMPSON.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 19:23:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 14:23:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412191925.iBJJPelE020870@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191923 SWODY1 SPC AC 191921 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ..PETERS.. 12/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 00:44:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 19:44:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412200046.iBK0kCdm001700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200042 SWODY1 SPC AC 200040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DELMARVA SWD TO THE NC COAST... OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM WAL SWD TO MHX INDICATE FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST INTENSE REGION OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...SUGGESTING THAT THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. SINCE THIS LIGHTNING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY SMALL...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE ADDED. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 04:54:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 23:54:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412200456.iBK4uTkU008795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200454 SWODY1 SPC AC 200452 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE E COAST...WHILE BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MORE SPECIFICALLY...VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...WEAKER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO CONCURRENTLY DIVE SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD/SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...TX COAST... CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND GOES PW DATA INDICATE THAT A CP AIR MASS HAS INTRUDED WELL INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH 50 F DEWPOINTS GENERALLY ALONG/S OF 23 N. INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL AID IN SOME MODIFICATION OF THIS AIR NWD TOWARD THE TX COAST WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 50 OR THE LOWER 50S F BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE REGION...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..MEAD.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 12:51:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 07:51:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412201253.iBKCrZxH006956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201251 SWODY1 SPC AC 201249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY...WITH REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE CONTINENTAL AIR REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UNTIL THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..EVANS.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 16:03:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 11:03:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412201605.iBKG59dt011082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201601 SWODY1 SPC AC 201559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS BEGINNING TO INDUCE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN TO TX. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE GULF BASIN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE CP AIR MASS IS ONGOING. INITIAL 2M DEWPOINTS IN THE 12Z ETA WERE TOO HIGH BY AT LEAST 5-10 F ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...AND IT APPEARS THE ETA CONTINUES TO RETURN MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY TO THE NW GULF COAST. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE E TX AREA WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER ON DAY 2. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT /DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ WILL SPREAD FROM THE NEB/SD BORDER REGION ACROSS IA/SRN MN TODAY...REACHING WI BY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONVECTIVE...AS EVIDENCED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..THOMPSON.. 12/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 05:44:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 00:44:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412210546.iBL5kd96021939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210544 SWODY1 SPC AC 210541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 2 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 40 S CLL 40 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 25 WNW TCL 55 SE MEI 25 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES SPREADING NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. PRIMARY FEATURE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WHICH WILL DIVE SWD FROM WRN CANADA TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE FRONT OVER CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO WRN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... CURRENT COASTAL AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE A NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WHILE 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED THIS MOISTURE TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER FETCH OF MODIFIED AIR WAS SAMPLED AT LCH. CONTINUED SLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MOISTURE AXIS WITH SOME NWD ADVECTION LIKELY ACROSS ERN TX AND MUCH OF LA. CURRENT ETA FORECASTS OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OBSERVATIONAL DATA N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.... SUGGESTING THAT CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY FORECASTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGH. AN INCREASINGLY COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND RESULTANT DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION FROM ERN TX INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST NWD ALONG DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES APPROACHING 500-700 J/KG. HERE...VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO. AS COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..MEAD.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 12:39:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 07:39:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412211242.iBLCgAIq008328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211239 SWODY1 SPC AC 211236 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRP 60 N PSX 40 SW PRX 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 50 WSW CBM 25 NNE LUL 25 SSE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER TX COAST ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN/SRN LA... 12Z SOUNDINGS AND EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE AIR MASS REMAINS CONVECTIVELY-CHALLENGED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /NOW DIGGING INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION/ WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...PLUME OF LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS NOW EXTENDING NWD TO JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EVIDENT NEAR PSX AT 12Z ALONG NOSE OF THIS MOIST AXIS. APPEARS INCREASING WAA JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA THROUGH THE DAY AS H85 LLJ STRENGTHENS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESPECTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH LIMITED SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THOUGH...SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE/PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM...STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF BECOMING SURFACE BASED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST. LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO...SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. THUS...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS SHOULD THIS POTENTIAL BECOME MORE EVIDENT. ..EVANS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 16:07:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 11:07:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412211609.iBLG9aHu020288@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211603 SWODY1 SPC AC 211601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1001 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW GLS 60 N HOU 15 NNE LFK 35 SSW SHV 35 NNE POE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRP 45 SE AUS 45 ENE DAL 30 ESE MLC 30 S HRO 40 SSE CGI 55 E MKL 40 SW CBM 45 SSE MEI 25 SSE PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN TX/WRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. NEXT TWO DAYS AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES INTO GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG S/WV TROUGH COUPLED WITH 150KT 300MB NLY JET NOW DIGGING SSEWD NRN ROCKIES SUPPORTS THE AMPLIFICATION PROCESS AS WELL AS PROVIDING THE IMPETUS TO MOVE S/WV TROUGH NOW SRN CA/AZ EWD INTO TX TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY COLD AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL MO SWWD ACROSS SERN OK INTO W CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S/SEWD. BY 12Z WED FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM KY/WRN TN SWWD ACROSS AR INTO SWRN TX. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLY RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF IS RAPIDLY PICKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS ALREADY ONSHORE MID TX COAST. ...SERN TX/WRN LA... WITH RELATIVELY STEEP AND COOL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM ACROSS TX COUPLED WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE INLAND/MUCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTION. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH ONLY 30KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW...LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES AND SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20-25KT OFF VAD AT HOU...SUGGESTS THAT ROTATION POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. INITIALLY THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY OF THESE ROTATING STORMS THAT EITHER FORM OR MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SWRN U.S...LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40 KT SERN TX/LA WHILE UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE INLAND SERN TX/WRN LA WITH A LITTLE GREATER CONCERN OF TORNADOES GIVEN THE IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK... AND OVERNIGHT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO A LINEAR MCS. ..HALES.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 20:04:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 15:04:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412212007.iBLK6xjY024221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 212004 SWODY1 SPC AC 212003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S PSX 60 NNE VCT CLL LFK POE LFT 45 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRP COT SAT AUS PGO 45 ESE HRO CGI PAH TUP 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SE TX AND WRN LA... ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO NRN MEX WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AND INTO DAY-2...REINFORCED BY 150 KT 300 MB JET MAX NOW DIGGING SWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...LEADING EDGE OF SERIES OF ARTIC AIR SURGES IS NOW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN MO...THROUGH WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TX...THEN WSWWD ACROSS LOWEST PECOS VALLEY REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WITH LOW SHIFTING EWD INTO ARKLATEX REGION. ...SE TX...WRN LA... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL CONTINUE SE OF FRONT...DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL NEAR COAST. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER...GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES PROGGED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE FROM TYR AREA SWD ACROSS HOU METRO INTO GULF...TO ABOUT 45 E BRO...THEN SWD PARALLEL TO MEX COAST...MOVING E 10-15 KT. RAOB ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THIS LINE NEARLY COINCIDES WITH ERN EDGE OF STRONGEST CAPPING EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO/DRT AND MONTERREY RAOBS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GREATEST FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 80 NM E OF THIS LINE...WHICH SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND PERHAPS RETREAT SLIGHTLY AMIDST CONTINUED PREFRONTAL PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS. AIR MASS OVER LAND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE NEAR SFC WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON. LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN IN AREA OF RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW E OF CONFLUENCE LINE...WHERE 200-300 SRH IS LIKELY IN SFC-3 KM LAYER. VWP DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG RIGHTWARD MOTION -- SUCH AS THAT OBSERVED SINCE 16Z WITH SUPERCELL ABOUT 60-70 NM OFFSHORE GLS. SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SW LA...AMIDST INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH GREAT MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS S TX AND MID TX COASTAL PLAIN...ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT...AFTER ABOUT 06Z. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AS MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES...ENHANCING GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT. ..EDWARDS.. 12/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 00:56:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 19:56:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412220059.iBM0xEOt002777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220056 SWODY1 SPC AC 220055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 60 NNE VCT 30 ESE CLL LFK POE 25 NW LFT 20 ESE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRP 35 E COT SAT AUS 40 NNE PRX 35 W UNO 10 NW CGI PAH TUP 15 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... ...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA... EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN MORE EWD ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEX. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN TX AND THEN SWWD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST HAS DESTABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE /PER 00Z CRP SOUNDING/...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS. CURRENT OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF W-E CONVECTIVE LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 60 SE PSX TO 100 S 7R4. PRIND...MAJORITY OF STRONGEST SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO STRONGER INSTABILITY OFFSHORE. FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NEAR PRX TO TYR. THOUGH 00Z FWD/SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...LOCALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE IN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN FREE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY STRONG /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2/. ..MEAD.. 12/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 05:31:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:31:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412220533.iBM5XgkT014900@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220531 SWODY1 SPC AC 220529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 40 NE HOU 20 SSW TCL 25 SW AUO 15 E AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRP 40 ESE SAT 30 W ELD 15 SSE DYR 45 W LOZ 15 SE JKL 45 SSW BLF 20 WSW CLT 20 WSW CAE 45 NNE AYS 25 S CTY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE FL PNHDL... ...SYNOPSIS... EXPANSION OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS SYSTEM EWD ACROSS TX TODAY AND THEN INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE ACCOMPANYING MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR BRO IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. ...GULF COAST... CURRENT SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS NOW ONSHORE AS FAR E AS THE LA COAST...AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS N OF BUOYS 42019...42038 AND 42041. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM TX WILL MAINTAIN A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR THE NEWD EXPANSION OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN 50-100 NM OF THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. AS INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT 45-55 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN LA NEWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO SWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HERE...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 350-450 M2/S2/ WILL EXIST E AND NE OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND SRN AL OVERNIGHT WITHIN WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ..MEAD.. 12/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 24 16:00:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 11:00:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412241603.iBOG31mU008466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241555 SWODY1 SPC AC 241553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0953 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 NW AGR 25 SSE DAB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE COLD UPPER TROUGH ERN U.S. WITH STRONG S/WV TROUGH NRN MEX TRACKING ESEWD TO SRN TX TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILS WWD ACROSS SRN FL INTO GULF OF MEXICO. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL FAR S FL BY TONIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS NWRN GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF S/WV TROUGH FROM NRN MEX. AIR MASS S OF FRONT IN FL MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...HOWEVER WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEATING AND LIFT ACROSS FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION S FL THRU TONIGHT. ..HALES.. 12/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 24 19:53:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 14:53:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412241955.iBOJtt9E001381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241951 SWODY1 SPC AC 241949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0149 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW SRQ 30 NW AGR 20 N MLB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO SOUTH FL. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN FAR SRN FL WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER....THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 12/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 00:38:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 19:38:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412250041.iBP0fKUw002913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250039 SWODY1 SPC AC 250037 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FMY 20 SSW AGR MLB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW LRD 25 ENE COT 30 NNE NIR 25 SSE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG VORTEX OVER SWRN HUDSON BAY HAS LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO S OF THE BIG BEND OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO EXTREME S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND WILL BE FLATTENING OUT AS NEXT STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ...SOUTH FLORIDA... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE KEYS AND THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND LIES BETWEEN THE PENINSULA AND CUBA. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTION NEAR 24N 85W WHICH COULD STILL MOVE OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS S OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB WHICH EXTENDS E-W FROM TPA-MLB. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THRU 25/12Z. ...PARTS OF S TX... THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PARTS OF S TX DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHILE THE COLD AIR MASS IS 50-75 MB DEEP...GIVEN COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND PVA FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 05:24:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 00:24:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412250527.iBP5R5A4031771@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250525 SWODY1 SPC AC 250523 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW PIE 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL TONIGHT.... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES SWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST REGION REINFORCING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ATTENTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEUTRALLY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN TX GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME ORIENTED TO A SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND NRN FL BY 26/12Z. BEST ESTIMATE ATTM IS SURFACE LOW IS SE OF BRO NEAR 24N 94W AND WILL TRACK ENEWD AND APPROACH THE W CENTRAL FL COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY LOW EXTENDING SWD AS IT NEARS TPA/PIE AFTER 26/06Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE ESTIMATING THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF STREAM OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AS WELL...THUS MARGINALLY DESTABILING THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DISPLACING THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION... MODELS DEPICT CLOUD COVER/MEAN RH ABOVE 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STRONG SLY/SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH WILL ADVECT LOW/MID 60S DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -5 ACROSS THE AREA. WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-110 KT AND 75-85 KT...RESPECTIVELY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50-60 KT WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT WILL OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL FL AFTER 26/06Z. HAVE INCLUDED A MINIMAL PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY ALONG/NEAR QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY E-W THRU CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 12:15:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 07:15:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412251218.iBPCIP1S001681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251213 SWODY1 SPC AC 251211 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0611 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CTY 20 N DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE TX GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND INTO THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM. ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS FL...WITH GFS MUCH FASTER AND LESS FOCUSED. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER ETA SOLUTION MAY BE MORE ACCURATE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT FL AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THOUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. LINE OF STORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST. ..HART.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 16:34:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 11:34:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412251636.iBPGaYh8016118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251634 SWODY1 SPC AC 251633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...FL PENINSULA... VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW HAS ENTERED NWRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE EWD CROSSING FL LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED S OF THE FL KEYS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDS WNWWD TO SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N 90W AT 15Z. FRONT HAS BEGUN RETURN NWD INTO S FL AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE 1006 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL GULF. WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD S FL BY THIS EVENING AS FAR N AS A FMY TO VRB LINE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 70F AND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80F. 12Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AS GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO RETURNING WARM FRONT AND MOVES IT ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 00Z WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING OVER ATLANTIC E OF FL. ETA IS SLOWER ON DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTIVE PCPN AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH...WHILE MOVING GULF SURFACE LOW MUCH SLOWER AS WELL. WITH A HIGH QUALITY WARM SECTOR IN SERN GULF AND WRN CARIBBEAN...AND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING VICINITY WARM FRONT VICINITY 25N 86W...WELL AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...FAVOR A SOLUTION MORE TOWARD THE GFS EXCEPT SLOWER WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT WHERE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. THIS WOULD BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO WRN FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VICINITY FMY. WHILE LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C/KM...THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS SUPPORTS MDT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OFF W COAST FL S OF WARM FRONT CLIMBING TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 60 KTS AND SR HELICITY TO 200-300 J/KG VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 KT AND 500MB WINDS TO 50-60KT. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ONSHORE ALONG WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS ADDITIONALLY MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF GULF ACTIVITY AGAIN VICINITY WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S FL. OVERNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ..HALES.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 19:57:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 14:57:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412251959.iBPJxmNY016648@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251957 SWODY1 SPC AC 251955 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN AND CNTRL FL... ...FL PENINSULA... WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CNTRL GULF AND WILL APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD...CURRENTLY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO SOUTH OF NAPLES WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY RANGING FROM 68 TO 72 F. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG SFC-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORT MEYERS FL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO THE BACKED SFC WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL. AS A RESULT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY. THE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE WRN PART OF THE PENINSULA. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAST ENELY STORM MOTION. THIS COMBINED WITH VEERING WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM WEST TO EAST. ..BROYLES.. 12/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 01:06:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 20:06:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412260108.iBQ18WMG012596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260104 SWODY1 SPC AC 260103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 NNE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH 25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA... SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF /200 SSW AQQ/. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL HAS LIMITED THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SRN FL FROM 10 SW FMY-35 N PBI. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE DATA AND VWP DATA INDICATED THAT THE COLD AIR MASS IS ERODING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AS THE SWLY LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATES EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE/MODIFY... ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NWD. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL W/NW TO THE SURFACE LOW. A COUPLE OF SW-NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN GULF INTO SRN FL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN FL...WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MIAMI AND KEY WEST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS...REFER TO SPCSWOMCD #2579. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NNEWD INTO CENTRAL FL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL FL BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ INTO CENTRAL FL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS SRN GA. INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO 70 KT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 05:41:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 00:41:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412260543.iBQ5hZX9003883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 260541 SWODY1 SPC AC 260540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 40 W JAX 55 W SAV 45 SE CAE 40 SSE FAY 30 SE OAJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST... WILL MOVE SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AS IT BUILDS EWD OVER THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER SERN STATES AT START OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL PHASE WITH OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE REST OF THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS RISE UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED ALONG EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES NEWD...WITH SECONDARY LOW CURRENTLY FORMING OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BECOMING PRIMARY LOW TODAY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF PHASING UPPER TROUGHS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM PORTIONS OF NRN FL NEWD TO SERN NC ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z AS UVVS...ASSOCIATED WITH WAA REGIME NNW OF SURFACE LOWS AND EXIT REGION OF 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET...MOVE NEWD TO ALONG/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. COLD FRONT INITIALLY TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL MOVE SWD OVER SRN FL AND OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WSWLY FLOW IN THE 800-600 MB LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE ATOP COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING WINDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER SRN FL. ..PETERS.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 12:36:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 07:36:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412261238.iBQCcYr0004895@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261235 SWODY1 SPC AC 261234 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 261300Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GA/SC/NC... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT THREAT OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. ...WA/ORE COAST... NEXT STRONG TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAST ONSHORE LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. ..HART.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 15:48:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 10:48:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412261550.iBQFondZ032305@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261547 SWODY1 SPC AC 261545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 261630Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXITING SERN U.S. WITH SURFACE DEEPENING OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF CAROLINA COAST OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM LAND AS SFC LOW DEEPENS NEWD OVER WRN ATLANTIC. WHILE THERE ARE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES PAC NW COAST...THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OFF PAC NW COAST PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE CONCERN FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY W COAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ..HALES.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 19:37:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 14:37:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412261940.iBQJdw0G011755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 261937 SWODY1 SPC AC 261936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 262000Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY. OFF THE WEST COAST...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL DIG SWD. LAPSE RATES WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STEEP AND SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF CA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE MAKING THUNDER UNLIKELY IN THE COASTAL AREAS. ..BROYLES.. 12/26/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 00:28:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 19:28:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412270031.iBR0VFiu003191@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270029 SWODY1 SPC AC 270027 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE SWD TONIGHT OFF THE WRN U.S. COAST...AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE NUMBER OF STRIKES WITHIN THE UPPER LOW HAS DECREASED SINCE 20Z. SWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN GREATEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO THE WEST OF THE WA-CA COASTLINE...WHERE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-30 TO -34C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELSEWHERE...STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST STATES WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 04:52:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 23:52:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412270455.iBR4t94k023803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270453 SWODY1 SPC AC 270451 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 25 ESE OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...COASTAL AREA OF CENTRAL CA... LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE WA-NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TODAY...AS AN UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE BC COAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE W/SW PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW...WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST AFTER 06Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 90+ KT 500 MB JET ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION/SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING SWD ALONG THE CENTRAL TO SRN CA COASTAL AREAS /ALONG AND WEST OF COASTAL RANGES/. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-26 TO -28C AT 500 MB/ ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER CENTRAL CA AFTER 06Z... RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..PETERS.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 12:33:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 07:33:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412271235.iBRCZqCL016882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271234 SWODY1 SPC AC 271232 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 AM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 25 ESE OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF CA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-24 TO -28C/...STRONG ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS...AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD AID IN A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER 21Z. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE...COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ..HART.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 15:49:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 10:49:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412271551.iBRFpXiN027879@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271547 SWODY1 SPC AC 271545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0945 AM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 25 ESE OXR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD UPPER TROUGH OFF CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWD TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG S/SWLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO CA. ONLY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE VICINITY CENTRAL CA COAST WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..HALES.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 19:38:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 14:38:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412271941.iBRJfHVj030462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271939 SWODY1 SPC AC 271937 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 25 SE SJC 30 S LGB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED 31.5N/132.3W WAS SEEN MIGRATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW IN AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD TURN EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA HAS INDICATED CLUSTERS OF CLOUD-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE AND MODELS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN SRN COASTAL CA VERY LATE TONIGHT. THUS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT LEAST MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO SWD THROUGH THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. TSTMS ARE APT TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION. IT DOES NOT APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY... HOWEVER /REFER TO SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK/. ..RACY.. 12/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 00:58:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 19:58:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412280101.iBS11C51024112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280058 SWODY1 SPC AC 280057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SFO 20 SE SJC 30 NE SBA 20 WNW RAL 25 NNW SAN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED AT 30.5N/130.6W ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COASTAL AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW CLOUD-WATER STRIKES WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN CA SWD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THEN SSWWD OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND THEN SWD TOWARD SRN CA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA BY 12Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES. THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL INTO SRN CA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AFTER 06-09Z. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 05:59:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 00:59:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412280601.iBS61xDc002532@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280559 SWODY1 SPC AC 280557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST MON DEC 27 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EKA 45 ENE UKI 20 SSE SCK 50 SSE FAT 25 E NID 40 NW IGM 20 NNE FLG 25 S INW 55 WNW SAD 25 SW FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS TEND TO AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN FOR THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST DE-AMPLIFYING TODAY AND THEN MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW/NRN CA REGION. HOWEVER...ETA/GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EAST CENTRAL CA BY THE END OF PERIOD. THE SLOWER ETA/ECMWF PLACE THE SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF POINT CONCEPTION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN CA... DESPITE THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 30.5N/127.7W PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHING SRN CA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CURRENT OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED NUMEROUS STRIKES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SRN CA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...GIVEN STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION INLAND...WHILE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AS A COLD POOL STEEPENS LAPSE RATES BY LATE MORNING. THUS...GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. A GREATER POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ALSO SMALL..FOR SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE SRN CA COAST WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AREA. NONETHELESS...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK IN ADVANCE OF EACH UPPER TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA. ELSEWHERE...AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO AZ. ..PETERS.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 12:55:08 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 07:55:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412281257.iBSCvQQX020705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281255 SWODY1 SPC AC 281253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 281300Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EKA SAC BIH LAS FLG 50 W SOW 55 SE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING INLAND. THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA INDICATES EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN REGION OF COLD UPPER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UVVS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TODAY IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A LOCALIZED THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INLAND THIS EVENING OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. AS WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO. ..HART.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 15:59:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 10:59:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412281602.iBSG27Y3031476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281555 SWODY1 SPC AC 281554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 281630Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW EKA SAC BIH LAS FLG 50 W SOW 55 SE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING INLAND. THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS/WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND THIS AM... HOWEVER INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED PRECLUDING A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. UPSTREAM VORT MAX AT 33N 122W ROTATING NEWD AND WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AT THE EXPENSE OF STRONGER IMPULSE NEAR 34N 132W WHICH WILL REACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. WITH 7C/KM LAPSE RATES PERSISTING COASTAL SRN CA THRU TONIGHT AND STRONG UVVS CONTINUING...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSES...A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL FINAL S/WV TROUGH MOVES INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE A CONTINUED THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. ..HALES.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 19:32:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 14:32:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412281934.iBSJYLFb032679@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 281930 SWODY1 SPC AC 281929 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 282000Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W UKI 40 E UKI 40 WSW TVL 60 NNW NID LAS 45 ENE IGM 45 SW INW 55 ESE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA AREA... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER THE SRN CA COAST NEAR SANTA BARBARA AS OF MIDDAY...WHILE OTHER TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE SRN AND WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THE INITIAL BAROCLINIC BAND WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS SRN CA...WHILE A SECONDARY BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE LEAD MID LEVEL VORT MAX. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE COAST...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER MAY SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE SRN CA COAST. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR AS THIS WAVE NEARS THE COAST...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE BY 06-09Z. ..THOMPSON.. 12/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 00:54:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 19:54:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412290057.iBT0v5iO026558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290054 SWODY1 SPC AC 290053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W UKI 40 E UKI 40 WSW TVL 60 NNW NID LAS 45 ENE IGM 45 SW INW 55 ESE PHX 80 S GBN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN CA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOCATED IN THE BASE OF A PARENT CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EWD TOWARD CA. THIS PARENT LOW WILL DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SSEWD OFF THE PAC NW. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH /AT 32.7N/123.8W/ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA COAST AROUND 06Z...WITH THE SECOND/STRONGER TROUGH /AT 30.7N/128.6W/ REACHING THE SRN CA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. OCEANIC LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A FEW STRIKES WITH THE LEAD TROUGH AND SEVERAL STRIKES WITH THE SECOND ONE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN CA COAST LATER TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY 06-09Z ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE COAST MAY SUPPORT MINI-SUPERCELLS JUST OFFSHORE WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO. SOME OF THIS SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW FOR A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 06:02:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 01:02:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412290604.iBT64HgE006757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290601 SWODY1 SPC AC 290559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE YKN 30 E MKT 30 NE LSE 35 E MSN 15 WNW CGX 25 ENE BMI 40 SSE UIN 35 NE MKC 20 NNE BIE 15 ENE YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S AST 35 NNW MFR 50 WSW MHS 30 SSW RBL 50 NE BFL 30 ESE NID 20 NW LAS 35 SSW SGU 35 ESE GCN 25 SW SOW 20 WSW SAD 25 SE FHU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... 00Z ETA FORECAST TRACK FOR TODAY OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH /NOW MOVING ENEWD INTO CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS TRENDING MORE WWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...BUT REMAINS WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. ...SRN CA EWD TO AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E OF CA. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL AID IN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO AZ. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRIKES MAY OCCUR FARTHER NEWD OVER THE ROCKIES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE THIS FAR EAST. ...MID MS VALLEY WWD TO ERN NEB... ETA/GFS DIFFER /GFS STRONGER AND MORE WEST/ WITH THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE THIS DIFFERENCE AND GIVEN THE WWD TREND IN THE LAST FEW ETA RUNS...THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR THE MID MS VALLEY HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO ERN NEB. SURFACE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER INTO NRN MO BY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO IA TONIGHT. SWLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO 50+ KT AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THIS AREA. STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TSTM THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD AS THE LLJ VEERS OVERNIGHT. ...COASTAL SECTIONS OF ORE/NWRN CA... THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE EVENING... ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND MID-LEVELS COOL IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO NRN CA. ..PETERS.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 12:37:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 07:37:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412291239.iBTCdHaQ005806@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291237 SWODY1 SPC AC 291235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW EKA 35 NE SCK 50 NE BFL 30 ENE NID 15 SE DRA 30 WSW MLF 45 ESE U24 40 W GJT 30 NNW CEZ 40 ENE SOW 50 ESE PHX 70 SW GBN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY 25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 40 ENE OMA 30 ESE YKN 30 W BKX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/NV/AZ/UT... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ASHORE NEAR LAX/SAN. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NV/UT AND NORTHERN AZ. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST ALONG THIS AXIS...ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF TRACK OF PRIMARY VORT MAX. WHILE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST. ...MIDWEST STATES... NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS OF SD/MN/IA. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION AFTER 06Z...WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ..HART.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 16:24:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 11:24:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412291626.iBTGQJ7F026776@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291616 SWODY1 SPC AC 291614 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY 25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 30 ESE OMA 30 ESE YKN 30 W BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55 S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 25 SSE LAS 15 E P38 45 ESE U24 40 SSW VEL 55 SW CAG 15 WNW ASE 40 SE GUC 40 SSW ALS 60 SSW GNT 70 WSW TUS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OFF CA COAST IS ACCELERATING ENEWD ACROSS SWRN U.S. THIS AM. BY THU AM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS. AT 15Z VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM SURFACE LOW ERN NV THRU WRN AZ. VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES ACROSS AZ AHEAD OF FRONT...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SEVERE THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS AZ AND THE 4-CORNERS AREA...GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED THE MARGINAL THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD VICINITY OF IA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPING EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. ..HALES.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 19:27:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 14:27:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412291930.iBTJU2Z4003412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 291927 SWODY1 SPC AC 291925 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55 S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BKX 55 ENE ATY 25 W EAU 30 NE LNR 40 NNE MLI 20 WSW BRL 25 E LWD 30 ESE OMA 30 ESE YKN 30 W BKX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SGU 45 N BCE 15 WNW U28 25 WNW GJT 25 NW GUC 35 SSE GUC 45 ESE DRO 25 NNW GNT 55 SSW GUP 45 ESE PRC 40 WNW PRC 55 NNE IGM 15 NE SGU. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO NWRN AZ/SWRN UT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z. LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION/STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY WANE OVER THE SWRN U.S. THROUGH EVENING. UNTIL THEN...ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY NRN AZ INTO SERN UT. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS...THOUGH THE AMBIENT WIND FIELDS WILL ALREADY BE QUITE STRONG. ...CNTRL PAC COAST... CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 28C/ WILL ROTATE INLAND CNTRL PAC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA AND GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...UPPER MS VLY... AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LIGHTNING VERY LATE TONIGHT. ..RACY.. 12/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 00:49:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 19:49:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412300051.iBU0pafb026298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300049 SWODY1 SPC AC 300047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55 S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGA 30 ESE 4HV 40 SSW GJT 20 SSE MTJ 55 NE DRO 55 ESE DRO 40 SE GNT 35 ESE DUG 40 WSW FHU 55 ESE GBN 15 NE PHX FLG PGA. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS AZ TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5C/KM IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. ...CNTRL PAC COAST... THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FROM -28 TO -30C...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM 700 TO 375 MB. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...THOUGH THE DEEP COLD ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY... LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN AZ MOVES NEWD INTO NEB TOWARD DAYBREAK. EVE SOUNDINGS WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS WERE DRY AND STABLE...WITH SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z...BUT THE BUOYANT LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES. ..IMY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 05:02:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 00:02:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412300504.iBU54bS4016126@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300501 SWODY1 SPC AC 300500 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST 25 NNW SLE 50 E OTH 45 SW MHS 50 N PRB 20 WNW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW FWA LAF BMI 20 ENE BRL 55 SSW LSE 40 ENE EAU IMT 35 E PLN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES... THOUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NRN ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE UNUSUAL WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ...GREAT LAKES AREA... AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY...50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... IS FORECAST TO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES 4-6C. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...PACIFIC COAST... WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE AREA...500 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -28 TO -30C RANGE...RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 450 MB. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL CA COASTS...WHERE LIFT/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY 25-35 WSWLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 12:31:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 07:31:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412301234.iBUCY8Cp002719@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301232 SWODY1 SPC AC 301230 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 35 S AZO 25 WSW CGX MSN 20 SSE CWA IMT 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE MFR RBL SCK 20 WNW SMX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA/ORE COAST... LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING INTO NORTHERN CA/OREGON. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-30C AT 500MB/ ALONG WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES TODAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. ...GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN MT/WY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z. ..HART.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 16:03:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 11:03:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412301605.iBUG5wea021781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301552 SWODY1 SPC AC 301551 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE 10 NNE LMT 50 NW TVL 30 N MER 20 SW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 35 S AZO 25 WSW CGX MSN 20 SSE CWA IMT 35 E PLN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... COLD UPPER TROUGH OFF W COAST SLOWLY MOVING EWD AS S/W IMPULSES MOVE RAPIDLY EWD OUT OF TROUGH ACROSS WRN U.S. ONSHORE FLOW OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM COASTAL MTS WWD CENTRAL CA TO WRN OR. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT SACRAMENTO VALLEY...HOWEVER WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY NO SEVERE IS STILL THE FORECAST. STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW. THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EWD TO ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. S OF LOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ..HALES.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 19:36:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 14:36:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412301938.iBUJcqTO015499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301936 SWODY1 SPC AC 301934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW 30 S AZO 30 ENE MMO 25 SSE MLI 25 WSW DBQ 25 S CWA IMT 35 E PLN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST SLE 10 NNE LMT 50 NW TVL 30 N MER 20 SW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY...THOUGH WARM SECTOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6.5 C/KM ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY. AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG AND VIGOROUS UVV SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS. FIRST STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP 00-03Z VCNTY ERN IA/SRN WI AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ...COASTAL ORE/NRN-CNTRL CA... ONSHORE FLOW OF MOIST PACIFIC BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..RACY.. 12/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 00:42:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 19:42:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412310044.iBV0iUYe001625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310042 SWODY1 SPC AC 310040 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0640 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HQM 40 ENE AST PDX 40 SE SLE 10 NNW MHS 10 SE RBL 20 NNE SAC 20 WNW MER 35 N PRB 15 WNW SMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MTC 40 WSW SBN 35 NNE PIA 25 WNW MLI 25 WNW DBQ 25 SSW VOK 25 E AUW 20 ENE ESC 45 SSE ANJ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED UPPER-LOW WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN WI...IL AND LOWER MI. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE NOT LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST OF ORE WILL SLOWLY SIT AND SPIN. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CA. THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ..BROYLES.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 06:09:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 01:09:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412310611.iBV6Bix2013035@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310609 SWODY1 SPC AC 310607 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST 15 E EUG 25 SW MFR 40 NW RBL 20 ESE SAC 25 NW FAT 25 N BFL 35 WSW BFL 25 WSW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW GLS 20 SSW LFK 35 SE PGO 40 W UNO 50 ESE TBN 40 NNW POF 25 E POF 35 E JBR 10 WNW GLH HEZ 30 ENE BTR 10 WNW BVE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CA AND ORE COAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA AND ORE TODAY. THE STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -30 C/ WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY... ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN TX AND LA ALLOWING FOR SFC DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE ROCKIES...LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY ACROSS TX AND LA TONIGHT. AS FLOW INCREASES...ANY DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARKS. DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ..BROYLES.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 12:59:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 07:59:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412311301.iBVD1JUB005916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311258 SWODY1 SPC AC 311256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 311300Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 15 E EUG MFR 25 N MHS 45 SSW SVE 50 SE TVL 25 N BFL 40 NE SMX 25 WSW PRB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S VCT 60 SSW CLL 15 N CLL 25 SE TYR 35 S TXK 35 SW ELD 45 E SHV 30 WSW POE 25 SSW BPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE FYV 25 NE MKO 25 NE TUL 45 WSW CNU EMP 25 ESE TOP COU 35 SSW STL 25 N POF 15 N ARG 55 SE HRO 30 SE FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT...AIDING IN EJECTING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NRN MN NEWD INTO QUEBEC. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. ...SERN TX/NWRN LA... WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS EVIDENT NEAR A BRO-HOU-LFK LINE... WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION MOVING NWD ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS. MORNING CRP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER... 5-10 DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD NOT EXTEND BEYOND LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER NM/CO...INDUCING SELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ...PACIFIC COAST... LIGHTNING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS OCCURRED MAINLY NEAR THE COASTLINE WHERE WARMER OCEAN WATERS PROVIDED MORE INSTABILITY THAN COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES. WITH TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE...THE LIGHTNING OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...-28C TO -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF SURFACE WARMING SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. ...SRN MO/SERN KS/NERN OK AND NWRN AR... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN TX AND POLAR JET LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/COOLING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD 12Z. ...ERN GREAT LAKES... AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHIFT NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA INTO CANADA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD OUT OF THE REGION. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS EXTREME SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A THUNDER AREA. ..IMY.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 16:35:28 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 11:35:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412311637.iBVGbYuE018936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311631 SWODY1 SPC AC 311630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 45 S EUG 15 WSW MFR 20 NW RBL 65 WNW BIH 55 NNW NID 35 E BFL 40 NE SBA 25 WSW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN U.S... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA SHIFT EWD. LEADING VORT MAX NEAR CENTRAL CA WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...AS NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGS ESEWD INTO SERN ORE/NRN CA IN ITS WAKE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION NOW OCCURRING WITH LEADING SYSTEM WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING UNDER POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR NOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL STILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR WEAK INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CA THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL SIZE WILL BE MITIGATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY. ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN MO... APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL EXIST ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT FORECAST ACROSS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE INHIBITION AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH CONVECTION NOW ACROSS SERN TX. FARTHER NORTH...LLJ AXIS ON 12Z MODELS REMAINS OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...EXPECT ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO WILL BE LIGHT AND THUNDER-FREE LATER TONIGHT. ..EVANS.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 19:50:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 14:50:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200412311952.iBVJqAEY030668@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311949 SWODY1 SPC AC 311947 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW ONP 45 S EUG 15 WSW MFR 10 WNW RBL 65 SSE TVL 35 NNW NID 25 WNW EDW 40 NE SBA 25 WSW PRB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...WRN ORE/NRN-CNTRL CA... VIGOROUS SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND PARENT PAC NW UPPER LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL CA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE SRN VLYS OF CNTRL CA...PRIMARILY FROM FRESNO SWD ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IN FACT...ISOLD C-G LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THIS AREA. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSOLATION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA AND WRN ORE. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN THE SIERRA AND THE SAN JOAQUIN/SACRAMENTO VLYS. THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VLY... RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...ADVECTING MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS NWD THROUGH ERN TX TO THE LOWER OH VLY. ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB INHIBITING SURFACE BASED PARCELS FROM REACHING LFC/S. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING. LATER TONIGHT...ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY...BUT PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. ..RACY.. 12/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.