[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171959
SWODY1
SPC AC 171956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
TBN 25 SW SZL 25 ENE MKC 30 SSW OTM 15 NW RFD 30 E MKE 20 E MKG 25
SW FNT 15 SSW ARB 50 S SBN MTO 15 WNW BLV 30 NW TBN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
MHN 20 S AIA 20 NNW BFF 40 W CDR 40 NNW CDR 30 S PHP 40 NNE VTN 40
ENE ANW 30 WNW BUB 30 SW MHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 15 E DAG 10
NW TVL 20 SSW LMT 20 E CLM ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 SE LWT 20 NNW
4BQ 50 SSW Y22 20 WSW MBG 50 WSW JMS 55 WNW JMS 55 NNW MOT
...CONT... 50 WNW CLE 25 N BNA 10 SSE DYR 15 NNW JLN 40 NNE PNC 35
WSW P28 25 NW LBL 40 SE LAA 25 ENE LAA 50 NE LAA 50 SSE GLD 25 SSE
HLC 20 ENE CNK 35 WSW FNB 15 WNW FNB 25 NNW FNB 30 ESE LNK 30 E GRI
AKO 25 WSW LIC 35 SSE PUB 20 NE TCC 40 SSE MAF 30 NE DRT 30 N NIR 30
SW PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W EFK 25 WNW DOV
20 N RIC 40 N RWI ILM ...CONT... 25 SSE CEW 35 SW TYS 35 N TRI 15 NW
DUJ 40 NW SYR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN
SD LATE...

...MIDWEST...
TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT AXIS FROM WEST/CNTRL IL SWWD INTO NRN MO.
AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WINDSHIFT HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND PASSING UPPER WAVE. AREA PROFILERS AND LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS SPREADING GENERALLY
SWD/SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY TENDS TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

...NWRN NEB/SWRN SD...
MIDWEST WINDSHIFT EXTENDS WWD/NWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT HAS
MERGED WITH LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN WY INTO ERN CO.
MEANWHILE...STORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD LATER THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT MOVES EAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING
DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...NOCTURNAL
LLJ WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SHOULD AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN NEB. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

...SOUTHEAST...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SEABREEZE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND POCKETS OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR...SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS PULSE AND MULTICELL
STORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTH INTO FL. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED WET MICROBURSTS.

...SOUTHWEST...
MULTICELL STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE RIM AND SHOULD DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SCNTRL AZ THROUGH EVENING.
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM
STRUCTURE AND UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. NONETHELESS...A COUPLE OF HAIL OR
STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN
ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY.

...NRN UT/SERN ID...
POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING BENEATH UPPER LOW/COLD POOL...
AND AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AND AROUND THE LARGE VORTEX...
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 08/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.