[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111251
SWODY1
SPC AC 111249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
WAL 40 N ORF 40 WSW RIC 35 NNE LYH 25 SW MRB 30 W ART ...CONT... 40
N BML ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
AUS 50 NE DRT 25 N P07 55 N MRF 20 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 50 S 4FC 20 E
DEN 30 NNE LIC 35 N LAA 35 S DHT 25 WNW LBB 50 N ABI 20 SSE MLC 30
WSW HOT 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 30 WNW BPT 45 W HOU 15 E AUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL
20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E
RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30
E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY
25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN TO MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS/ROCKIES AND EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGS
SSEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL STATES/LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. 
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WRN NOAM WITH NNWLY FLOW CONTINUING
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE TX/LA COAST.

...NERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TRAILING
SWD TO THE OH VALLEY WILL TRACK NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY
12Z THURSDAY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS NY/PA AND THE TN VALLEY. 
DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A
MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXTENDING FROM VA/DELMARVA AREA NWD TO CENTRAL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS AT 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHEAR
VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT FAVORING BANDS OF
STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDICATING A TORNADO
THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO
THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES TODAY...WHERE AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.  IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING...FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP.  ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

...SRN CO/ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY ONGOING MCS OVER OK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...AND
ALSO BACK WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.  SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH 35-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS. VEERING WIND PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH A GREATER THREAT EXPECTED TO
BE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY CLUSTER INTO
AN MCS TONIGHT AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.

...ERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...
SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL OK...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MODEST AT
BEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SOME ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITH THE WELL-DEFINED MCV SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN TX INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR AND WRN LA. 
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NERN GULF COAST...
T.S. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  CURRENT NHC FORECAST PLACES BONNIE
60-80 MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY. 
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE OUTER BANDS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE.  RISK REMAINS TOO
LOW ATTM TO FORECAST A CATEGORICAL RISK...BUT IF THE TRACK/SPEED OF
T.S. BONNIE CHANGES THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..PETERS/BANACOS.. 08/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.