[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040137
SWODY1
SPC AC 040136

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
SBN 10 WNW IND 20 SE DEC 40 WSW UIN 15 NW FNB 10 W OMA 45 SSW FOD 20
ENE CID 30 ESE DBQ RFD 35 ESE RFD 40 S CGX 45 S SBN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
OLF 30 WSW DIK 35 WSW MBG 10 ESE HON 25 NE VOK 20 NW GRR 25 N MTC 35
W CLE 20 S CMH 45 SSW HUF 35 NW STL 10 SSW OJC 35 NW BVO 45 NNW GAG
35 NW CNK 10 NNW SNY 55 NNE CPR 30 N COD 20 W LWT 10 E OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 S SEM
30 SSE RMG 15 NNE SPA 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW
DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 50 SW JLN 30 NE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE
P07 ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW
FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NE EKO 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S
S80 20 NNW BKE 50 NNW BNO 30 SE RDM 50 WNW RDM PDX 20 SE SEA 30 NE
BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 NE BIS 40 NNW ABR 25 SW RHI 35 NE MTW 35
SSW OSC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN-ERN IA/FAR NRN
MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-NRN IL INTO WRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SERN MT AND NERN
WY ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE SRN WI FROM MODERATE RISK HEADLINE

...SYNOPSIS...
WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/
MIDWEST.  WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL KS WILL TRACK EWD TO NRN IL/NRN MO OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...
UPPER TROUGH OVER MT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO
MEAN RIDGE POSITION.

...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL EWD TO NRN-ERN IND/WRN OH OVERNIGHT...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
SRN WI JUST NORTH OF MSN...WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NERN IL /AROUND 30 S CGX/ AND WNWWD INTO SRN WI NEAR MSN. A
SECOND LESS DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN IL TO WRN-CENTRAL
OH.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS/BOW ECHO OVER ERN IA
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD DSM.

AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO 4500 J/KG OVER
SERN IA/.  AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

ONGOING DAMAGING BOW ECHOES ACROSS SRN WI AND ERN IA ARE EXPECTED TO
TRACK ESEWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
VEERING WIND PROFILES /WLY 50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND ATOP 50 KT SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL/ AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.  RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TWO BOW ECHOES MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DAMAGING BOW ECHO AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD INTO
NRN IND.  GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF BOW OVER FAR ERN IA/FAR NWRN IL AND
AIR MASS ACROSS IND/WRN OH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTS THIS BOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WRN OH BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO TO NRN IL...
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER ERN NEB INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS.  PRIOR TO THE MCS/S
DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF FAR
SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY
UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS.  THESE BOWS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN IA AND POTENTIALLY FAR NRN MO...AND ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL
IL IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT BOW MOVING INTO NRN IL.  THIS EXPECTED
BOW MAY REACH CENTRAL/NRN IND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI...
ELEVATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN WI IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TOWARD SRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.  INCREASING LLJ NOSING INTO
NRN IL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS SRN LOWER
MI...WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS/NRN NEB...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE
STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...CURRENT LINE OF STORMS BECOMING MORE
ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND/WRN SD TONIGHT.

...PORITONS CENTRAL-ERN KS...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KS THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER
AREA 00Z RAOBS SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
MODE...BUT GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SERN AZ/PORTIONS SRN NM...
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN PULSE...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 08/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.